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Sample records for survey predicts levels

  1. Predicting survey responses: how and why semantics shape survey statistics on organizational behaviour.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Ketil Arnulf

    Full Text Available Some disciplines in the social sciences rely heavily on collecting survey responses to detect empirical relationships among variables. We explored whether these relationships were a priori predictable from the semantic properties of the survey items, using language processing algorithms which are now available as new research methods. Language processing algorithms were used to calculate the semantic similarity among all items in state-of-the-art surveys from Organisational Behaviour research. These surveys covered areas such as transformational leadership, work motivation and work outcomes. This information was used to explain and predict the response patterns from real subjects. Semantic algorithms explained 60-86% of the variance in the response patterns and allowed remarkably precise prediction of survey responses from humans, except in a personality test. Even the relationships between independent and their purported dependent variables were accurately predicted. This raises concern about the empirical nature of data collected through some surveys if results are already given a priori through the way subjects are being asked. Survey response patterns seem heavily determined by semantics. Language algorithms may suggest these prior to administering a survey. This study suggests that semantic algorithms are becoming new tools for the social sciences, opening perspectives on survey responses that prevalent psychometric theory cannot explain.

  2. PREDICTING ADVERTISING EXPENDITURES USING INTENTION SURVEYS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    ALSEM, KJ; LEEFLANG, PSH

    In this article we study the use of intention surveys to predict the effects of a possible entrant. The case under investigation deals with the introduction of private broadcasting in the Netherlands. Several predictions of the advertising expenditures in various media are given which depend on a

  3. Predicting Homework Time Management at the Secondary School Level: A Multilevel Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jianzhong

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to test empirical models of variables posited to predict homework time management at the secondary school level. Student- and class-level predictors of homework time management were analyzed in a survey of 1895 students from 111 classes. Most of the variance in homework time management occurred at the student level,…

  4. Consumer factors predicting level of treatment response to illness management and recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Dominique A; McGuire, Alan B; Luther, Lauren; Anderson, Adrienne I; Phalen, Peter; McGrew, John H

    2017-12-01

    This study aims to identify consumer-level predictors of level of treatment response to illness management and recovery (IMR) to target the appropriate consumers and aid psychiatric rehabilitation settings in developing intervention adaptations. Secondary analyses from a multisite study of IMR were conducted. Self-report data from consumer participants of the parent study (n = 236) were analyzed for the current study. Consumers completed prepost surveys assessing illness management, coping, goal-related hope, social support, medication adherence, and working alliance. Correlations and multiple regression analyses were run to identify self-report variables that predicted level of treatment response to IMR. Analyses revealed that goal-related hope significantly predicted level of improved illness self-management, F(1, 164) = 10.93, p consumer-level predictors of level of treatment response have not been explored for IMR. Although 2 significant predictors were identified, study findings suggest more work is needed. Future research is needed to identify additional consumer-level factors predictive of IMR treatment response in order to identify who would benefit most from this treatment program. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. The Level of Quality of Work Life to Predict Work Alienation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdem, Mustafa

    2014-01-01

    The current research aims to determine the level of elementary school teachers' quality of work life (QWL) to predict work alienation. The study was designed using the relational survey model. The research population consisted of 1096 teachers employed at 25 elementary schools within the city of Van in the academic year 2010- 2011, and 346…

  6. A Reliable and Valid Survey to Predict a Patient’s Gagging Intensity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Casey M. Hearing

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The aim of this study was to devise a reliable and valid survey to predict the intensity of someone’s gag reflex. Material and Methods: A 10-question Predictive Gagging Survey was created, refined, and tested on 59 undergraduate participants. The questions focused on risk factors and experiences that would indicate the presence and strength of someone’s gag reflex. Reliability was assessed by administering the survey to a group of 17 participants twice, with 3 weeks separating the two administrations. Finally, the survey was given to 25 dental patients. In these cases, patients completed an informed consent form, filled out the survey, and then had a maxillary impression taken while their gagging response was quantified from 1 to 5 on the Fiske and Dickinson Gagging Intensity Index. Results: There was a moderate positive correlation between the Predictive Gagging Survey and Fiske and Dickinson’s Gagging Severity Index, r = +0.64, demonstrating the survey’s validity. Furthermore, the test-retest reliability was r = +0.96, demonstrating the survey’s reliability. Conclusions: The Predictive Gagging Survey is a 10-question survey about gag-related experiences and behaviours. We established that it is a reliable and valid method to assess the strength of someone’s gag reflex.

  7. SURVEY ON CRIME ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION USING DATA MINING TECHNIQUES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H Benjamin Fredrick David

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Data Mining is the procedure which includes evaluating and examining large pre-existing databases in order to generate new information which may be essential to the organization. The extraction of new information is predicted using the existing datasets. Many approaches for analysis and prediction in data mining had been performed. But, many few efforts has made in the criminology field. Many few have taken efforts for comparing the information all these approaches produce. The police stations and other similar criminal justice agencies hold many large databases of information which can be used to predict or analyze the criminal movements and criminal activity involvement in the society. The criminals can also be predicted based on the crime data. The main aim of this work is to perform a survey on the supervised learning and unsupervised learning techniques that has been applied towards criminal identification. This paper presents the survey on the Crime analysis and crime prediction using several Data Mining techniques.

  8. Corticosterone levels predict survival probabilities of Galapagos marine iguanas during El Nino events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero, L M; Wikelski, M

    2001-06-19

    Plasma levels of corticosterone are often used as a measure of "stress" in wild animal populations. However, we lack conclusive evidence that different stress levels reflect different survival probabilities between populations. Galápagos marine iguanas offer an ideal test case because island populations are affected differently by recurring El Niño famine events, and population-level survival can be quantified by counting iguanas locally. We surveyed corticosterone levels in six populations during the 1998 El Niño famine and the 1999 La Niña feast period. Iguanas had higher baseline and handling stress-induced corticosterone concentrations during famine than feast conditions. Corticosterone levels differed between islands and predicted survival through an El Niño period. However, among individuals, baseline corticosterone was only elevated when body condition dropped below a critical threshold. Thus, the population-level corticosterone response was variable but nevertheless predicted overall population health. Our results lend support to the use of corticosterone as a rapid quantitative predictor of survival in wild animal populations.

  9. FY 2000 report on the survey for introduction of the hot spring effect prediction method in the geothermal development promotion survey. Improvement of the hot spring effect prediction method in the geothermal development promotion survey; 2000 nendo chinetsu kaihatsu sokushin chosa. Onsen eikyo yosoku shuho donyu chosa - Chinetsu kaihatsu sokushin chosa ni okeru onsen eikyo yosoku shuho no kairyo hokokusho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-03-01

    Supposing the case where the geothermal development promotion survey was carried out in promising geothermal areas in Japan, investigational study was conducted on possibilities of introducing the hot spring effect prediction method, improvement of the method, etc. In the survey, adjustment/classification of formation mechanisms of hot spring were made. For each of the formation mechanisms, the mechanisms in case of the geothermal development having effects were studied/summarized. As to how effects are brought about, presumed were the lowering of water level and decrease in discharge amount in accordance with the decreasing pressure and the dilution by increase in mixture of the ground water around the area. Also cited were the vaporization of hot spring aquifers by the increasing rate of vapor inflow, etc. For the introduction of the hot spring effect prediction method to the geothermal development promotion survey, the problem is short supply of various data, and the examination for it was made. Based on the results of the survey, items to be studied in case of introducing the hot spring effect prediction method were selected. Further, the hot spring effect prediction flow in case of introducing surface survey and well survey was made out. (NEDO)

  10. Merging aeromagnetic data collected at different levels: the GEOMAUD survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Damaske

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available As part of the German GEOMAUD-expedition an aeromagnetic survey was carried out in Central Queen Maud Land. The helicopter-borne survey was designed in a conventional form of a regional survey with a spacing of profile-lines of 4.4 km. Due to terrain considerations - surveying from the coast across the mountain ranges to the high altitudes of the polar plateau - the survey was split into two sections flown at different constant levels. Over the coastal part survey elevation was 570 m (above sea level while for the mountain section 2845 m was chosen. Both survey parts were processed separately. The low level section was upward continued before merging with the high level section. Though this leads to a homogeneous magnetic anomaly map, in some applications it may be more advantageous to present the anomalies of the magnetic field in original survey levels as a simple combined map because small scale features are preserved and can be used in recognizing magnetic units and patterns for geological/geophysical interpretation.

  11. Low-level and mixed waste incinerator survey report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia, E.C.

    1988-10-01

    The Low-Level and Mixed Waste Survey Task was initiated to investigate and document current and planned incinerator facilities in the Department of Energy Defense Programs (DOE-DP) system. A survey was mailed to the DOE field offices requesting information regarding existing or planned incinerator facilities located under their jurisdiction. The information requested included type, capacities, uses, costs, and mechanical description of the incinerators. The results of this survey are documented in this report. Nine sites responded to the survey, with eight sites listing nine incineration units in several stages of operations. The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory listed two operational facilities. There are four incinerators that are planned for start-up in 1991. Of the existing incinerators, three are used mostly for low-level wastes, while the planned units will be used for low-level, mixed, and hazardous wastes. This report documents the current state of the incineration facilities in the DOE-DP system and provides a preliminary strategy for management of low-level wastes and a basis for implementing this strategy. 5 refs., 4 figs., 14 tabs

  12. Sea level rise : A literature survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Essink, G.H.P.

    1992-01-01

    In order to assess the impact of sea level rise on Water Management, it is useful to understand the mechanisrns that determine the level of the sea. In this study, a literature survey is executed to analyze these mechanisms. Climate plays a centra! role in these mechanisms, Climate mainly changes

  13. Section Level Public Land Survey - polygons

    Data.gov (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — Public Land Survey line delineations to the section level. Data are derived primarily from Section corner locations captured from paper USGS seven and one-half...

  14. Section Level Public Land Survey - lines

    Data.gov (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — Public Land Survey line delineations to the section level. Developed from manually digitized section corners captured from paper USGS seven and one-half map sources.

  15. Hydroclimatic variability and predictability: a survey of recent research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. D. Koster

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Recent research in large-scale hydroclimatic variability is surveyed, focusing on five topics: (i variability in general, (ii droughts, (iii floods, (iv land–atmosphere coupling, and (v hydroclimatic prediction. Each surveyed topic is supplemented by illustrative examples of recent research, as presented at a 2016 symposium honoring the career of Professor Eric Wood. Taken together, the recent literature and the illustrative examples clearly show that current research into hydroclimatic variability is strong, vibrant, and multifaceted.

  16. Sentence-Level Attachment Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albakour, M.-Dyaa; Kruschwitz, Udo; Lucas, Simon

    Attachment prediction is the task of automatically identifying email messages that should contain an attachment. This can be useful to tackle the problem of sending out emails but forgetting to include the relevant attachment (something that happens all too often). A common Information Retrieval (IR) approach in analyzing documents such as emails is to treat the entire document as a bag of words. Here we propose a finer-grained analysis to address the problem. We aim at identifying individual sentences within an email that refer to an attachment. If we detect any such sentence, we predict that the email should have an attachment. Using part of the Enron corpus for evaluation we find that our finer-grained approach outperforms previously reported document-level attachment prediction in similar evaluation settings.

  17. Market survey of level measurement equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    In a market survey of level measurement equipment from 42 manufacturers, which is based on different principles of measurement and which is used for different applications, the data of the various manufacturers is compiled. (orig./HP) [de

  18. Evaluation and comparison of predictive individual-level general surrogates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriel, Erin E; Sachs, Michael C; Halloran, M Elizabeth

    2018-07-01

    An intermediate response measure that accurately predicts efficacy in a new setting at the individual level could be used both for prediction and personalized medical decisions. In this article, we define a predictive individual-level general surrogate (PIGS), which is an individual-level intermediate response that can be used to accurately predict individual efficacy in a new setting. While methods for evaluating trial-level general surrogates, which are predictors of trial-level efficacy, have been developed previously, few, if any, methods have been developed to evaluate individual-level general surrogates, and no methods have formalized the use of cross-validation to quantify the expected prediction error. Our proposed method uses existing methods of individual-level surrogate evaluation within a given clinical trial setting in combination with cross-validation over a set of clinical trials to evaluate surrogate quality and to estimate the absolute prediction error that is expected in a new trial setting when using a PIGS. Simulations show that our method performs well across a variety of scenarios. We use our method to evaluate and to compare candidate individual-level general surrogates over a set of multi-national trials of a pentavalent rotavirus vaccine.

  19. Multi-level predictive maintenance for multi-component systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguyen, Kim-Anh; Do, Phuc; Grall, Antoine

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a novel predictive maintenance policy with multi-level decision-making is proposed for multi-component system with complex structure. The main idea is to propose a decision-making process considered on two levels: system level and component one. The goal of the decision rules at the system level is to address if preventive maintenance actions are needed regarding the predictive reliability of the system. At component level the decision rules aim at identifying optimally a group of several components to be preventively maintained when preventive maintenance is trigged due to the system level decision. Selecting optimal components is based on a cost-based group improvement factor taking into account the predictive reliability of the components, the economic dependencies as well as the location of the components in the system. Moreover, a cost model is developed to find the optimal maintenance decision variables. A 14-component system is finally introduced to illustrate the use and the performance of the proposed predictive maintenance policy. Different sensitivity analysis are also investigated and discussed. Indeed, the proposed policy provides more flexibility in maintenance decision-making for complex structure systems, hence leading to significant profits in terms of maintenance cost when compared with existing policies. - Highlights: • A predictive maintenance policy for complex structure systems is proposed. • Multi-level decision process based on prognostic results is proposed. • A cost-based group importance measure is introduced for decision-making. • Both positive and negative dependencies between components are investigated. • A cost model and Monte Carlo simulation are developed for optimization process.

  20. Survey of microbiological effects in low-level radioactive waste disposed of to land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGahan, D.J.

    1987-01-01

    An evaluation of published literature was mounted to determine the current position of research into microbiological effects in low-level radioactive waste disposal sites and to assess the need for further research. It is concluded from the survey that the microbial activity present in domestic landfills also occurs in shallow land burial low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The microbial activity results in the release of tritium as tritiated methane to the atmosphere and tritiated components to the leachate. Carbon-14 migration is also enhanced. It also accelerates the corrosion of steel and concrete used to contain the wastes. There is little evidence for enhanced migration of radionuclides as a result of their incorporation in bacteria but there is considerable evidence for enhancement resulting from the presence of complexing agents (such as ethylenediamine-tetraacetic acid and tributyl phosphate) in the waste. Research in this field has been observed to be very active in the United States. Its objective is to predict with more certainty the important parameters for future low-level radioactive waste site designs. Quantitative prediction of microbial effects and their magnitude is not easy to deduce from the published literature, and new site designs will differ markedly from those that have been in operation over the last thirty years. (author)

  1. A neighborhood statistics model for predicting stream pathogen indicator levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Pramod K; Pasternack, Gregory B; Majumder, Mahbubul; Soupir, Michelle L; Kaiser, Mark S

    2015-03-01

    Because elevated levels of water-borne Escherichia coli in streams are a leading cause of water quality impairments in the U.S., water-quality managers need tools for predicting aqueous E. coli levels. Presently, E. coli levels may be predicted using complex mechanistic models that have a high degree of unchecked uncertainty or simpler statistical models. To assess spatio-temporal patterns of instream E. coli levels, herein we measured E. coli, a pathogen indicator, at 16 sites (at four different times) within the Squaw Creek watershed, Iowa, and subsequently, the Markov Random Field model was exploited to develop a neighborhood statistics model for predicting instream E. coli levels. Two observed covariates, local water temperature (degrees Celsius) and mean cross-sectional depth (meters), were used as inputs to the model. Predictions of E. coli levels in the water column were compared with independent observational data collected from 16 in-stream locations. The results revealed that spatio-temporal averages of predicted and observed E. coli levels were extremely close. Approximately 66 % of individual predicted E. coli concentrations were within a factor of 2 of the observed values. In only one event, the difference between prediction and observation was beyond one order of magnitude. The mean of all predicted values at 16 locations was approximately 1 % higher than the mean of the observed values. The approach presented here will be useful while assessing instream contaminations such as pathogen/pathogen indicator levels at the watershed scale.

  2. Corticosterone levels predict survival probabilities of Galápagos marine iguanas during El Niño events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero, L. Michael; Wikelski, Martin

    2001-01-01

    Plasma levels of corticosterone are often used as a measure of “stress” in wild animal populations. However, we lack conclusive evidence that different stress levels reflect different survival probabilities between populations. Galápagos marine iguanas offer an ideal test case because island populations are affected differently by recurring El Niño famine events, and population-level survival can be quantified by counting iguanas locally. We surveyed corticosterone levels in six populations during the 1998 El Niño famine and the 1999 La Niña feast period. Iguanas had higher baseline and handling stress-induced corticosterone concentrations during famine than feast conditions. Corticosterone levels differed between islands and predicted survival through an El Niño period. However, among individuals, baseline corticosterone was only elevated when body condition dropped below a critical threshold. Thus, the population-level corticosterone response was variable but nevertheless predicted overall population health. Our results lend support to the use of corticosterone as a rapid quantitative predictor of survival in wild animal populations. PMID:11416210

  3. Vitamin D Levels Predict Multiple Sclerosis Progression

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Research Matters NIH Research Matters February 3, 2014 Vitamin D Levels Predict Multiple Sclerosis Progression Among people ... sclerosis (MS), those with higher blood levels of vitamin D had better outcomes during 5 years of ...

  4. The dog and cat population on Maio Island, Cape Verde: characterisation and prediction based on household survey and remotely sensed imagery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lopes Antunes, Ana Carolina; Ducheyne, Els; Bryssinckx, Ward

    2015-01-01

    a global positioning system instrument. Linear statistical models were applied to predict the dog and cat populations based on the number of houses found and according to various levels of data aggregation. In the surveyed localities, a total of 457 dogs and 306 cats were found. The majority of animals had...

  5. Cuff leak test and laryngeal survey for predicting post-extubation stridor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Anit B; Ani, Chizobam; Feeney, Colin

    2015-02-01

    Evidence for the predictive value of the cuff leak test (CLT) for post-extubation stridor (PES) is conflicting. We evaluated the association and accuracy of CLT alone or combined with other laryngeal parameters with PES. Fifty-one mechanically ventilated adult patients in a medical-surgical intensive care unit were tested prior to extubation using; CLT, laryngeal ultrasound and indirect laryngoscopy. Biometric, laryngeal and endotracheal tube (ETT) parameters were recorded. PES incidence was 4%. CLT demonstrated 'no leak' in 20% of patients. Laryngeal oedema was present in 10% of the patients on indirect laryngoscopy, and 71% of the patients had a Grades 1-3 indirect laryngoscopic view. Mean air column width on laryngeal ultrasound was 0.66 ± 0.15 cm (cuff deflated), mean ratio of ETT to laryngeal diameter was 0.48 ± 0.07, and the calculated CLT and laryngeal survey composite was 0.86 ± 1.25 (range 0-5). CLT and the CLT and Laryngeal survey composite measure were not associated with or predict PES. Age, sex, peri-extubation steroid use, intubation duration and body mass index were not associated with PES. Even including ultrasonographic and indirect laryngoscopic examination of the airway, no single aspect of the CLT or combination with laryngeal parameters accurately predicts PES.

  6. Geostatistical methods for rock mass quality prediction using borehole and geophysical survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, J.; Rubin, Y.; Sege, J. E.; Li, X.; Hehua, Z.

    2015-12-01

    For long, deep tunnels, the number of geotechnical borehole investigations during the preconstruction stage is generally limited. Yet tunnels are often constructed in geological structures with complex geometries, and in which the rock mass is fragmented from past structural deformations. Tunnel Geology Prediction (TGP) is a geophysical technique widely used during tunnel construction in China to ensure safety during construction and to prevent geological disasters. In this paper, geostatistical techniques were applied in order to integrate seismic velocity from TGP and borehole information into spatial predictions of RMR (Rock Mass Rating) in unexcavated areas. This approach is intended to apply conditional probability methods to transform seismic velocities to directly observed RMR values. The initial spatial distribution of RMR, inferred from the boreholes, was updated by including geophysical survey data in a co-kriging approach. The method applied to a real tunnel project shows significant improvements in rock mass quality predictions after including geophysical survey data, leading to better decision-making for construction safety design.

  7. Appalachian States Compact Low-Level Radioactive Waste management survey, 1987

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, K.N.

    1989-03-01

    Since the enactment of the Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Act in February 1988, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania has undertaken major steps to develop a Low-Level Radioactive Waste (LLRW) Disposal Facility within its borders for the exclusive use of radioactive material licensees in the Appalachian States Compact. In order to adequately plan for the design and development of that facility, it is essential to obtain accurate data on LLRW being generated in the Compact. To that end, the Division of Nuclear Safety of the Pennsylvania Bureau of Radiation Protection (BRP) conducted a survey to determine volume and activity of LLRW shipped and stored in 1987 by the licensees in the Appalachian States Compact. The 1986 LLRW survey included licensees in Pennsylvania and Maryland, while surveys conducted prior to 1986 involved only Pennsylvania licensees. So this is the first survey conducted by BRP that has included all four states of the Compact

  8. Predicting carnivore occurrence with noninvasive surveys and occupancy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Robert A.; Donovan, Therese M.; MacKay, Paula; Zielinski, William J.; Buzas, Jeffrey S.

    2011-01-01

    Terrestrial carnivores typically have large home ranges and exist at low population densities, thus presenting challenges to wildlife researchers. We employed multiple, noninvasive survey methods—scat detection dogs, remote cameras, and hair snares—to collect detection–nondetection data for elusive American black bears (Ursus americanus), fishers (Martes pennanti), and bobcats (Lynx rufus) throughout the rugged Vermont landscape. We analyzed these data using occupancy modeling that explicitly incorporated detectability as well as habitat and landscape variables. For black bears, percentage of forested land within 5 km of survey sites was an important positive predictor of occupancy, and percentage of human developed land within 5 km was a negative predictor. Although the relationship was less clear for bobcats, occupancy appeared positively related to the percentage of both mixed forest and forested wetland habitat within 1 km of survey sites. The relationship between specific covariates and fisher occupancy was unclear, with no specific habitat or landscape variables directly related to occupancy. For all species, we used model averaging to predict occurrence across the study area. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses of our black bear and fisher models suggested that occupancy modeling efforts with data from noninvasive surveys could be useful for carnivore conservation and management, as they provide insights into habitat use at the regional and landscape scale without requiring capture or direct observation of study species.

  9. Language arts achievement level, attitude survey format, and adolescents' attitudes towards reading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, L R; Ryan, B E

    1997-01-01

    The joint effects of student achievement level and attitude survey format upon attitudes toward reading were investigated. Sixth-grade students completed reading attitude surveys involving a standard Likert-type format or one involving pictures of the comic strip character, Garfield. The survey items were identical for both formats; only the presentation format was varied. There was no significant main effect on attitude responses due to achievement level, but the main effect due to survey format was significant, with the Likert-type format producing significantly higher attitude responses than the Garfield format. The interaction between achievement level and format also was significant, with above average students and average students giving higher attitude responses than did below average students when the Garfield format was used. When the Likert-type format was used, average students and below average students gave higher attitude responses than did above average students. The results imply that attitude responses of adolescents can be manipulated by varying the format of the survey.

  10. The Relationship of Level of Positive Mental Health with Current Mental Disorders in Predicting Suicidal Behavior and Academic Impairment in College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keyes, Corey L. M.; Eisenberg, Daniel; Perry, Geraldine S.; Dube, Shanta R.; Kroenke, Kurt; Dhingra, Satvinder S.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To investigate whether level of positive mental health complements mental illness in predicting students at risk for suicidal behavior and impaired academic performance. Participants: A sample of 5,689 college students participated in the 2007 Healthy Minds Study and completed an Internet survey that included the Mental Health…

  11. Numerical analysis for prediction of fatigue crack opening level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Hyeon Chang

    2004-01-01

    Finite Element Analysis (FEA) is the most popular numerical method to simulate plasticity-induced fatigue crack closure and can predict fatigue crack closure behavior. Finite element analysis under plane stress state using 4-node isoparametric elements is performed to investigate the detailed closure behavior of fatigue cracks and the numerical results are compared with experimental results. The mesh of constant size elements on the crack surface can not correctly predict the opening level for fatigue crack as shown in the previous works. The crack opening behavior for the size mesh with a linear change shows almost flat stress level after a crack tip has passed by the monotonic plastic zone. The prediction of crack opening level presents a good agreement with published experimental data regardless of stress ratios, which are using the mesh of the elements that are in proportion to the reversed plastic zone size considering the opening stress intensity factors. Numerical interpolation results of finite element analysis can precisely predict the crack opening level. This method shows a good agreement with the experimental data regardless of the stress ratios and kinds of materials

  12. Predictions of Planet Detections with Near-infrared Radial Velocities in the Upcoming SPIRou Legacy Survey-planet Search

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloutier, Ryan; Artigau, Étienne; Delfosse, Xavier; Malo, Lison; Moutou, Claire; Doyon, René; Donati, Jean-Francois; Cumming, Andrew; Dumusque, Xavier; Hébrard, Élodie; Menou, Kristen

    2018-02-01

    The SPIRou near-infrared spectropolarimeter is destined to begin science operations at the Canada–France–Hawaii Telescope in mid-2018. One of the instrument’s primary science goals is to discover the closest exoplanets to the solar system by conducting a three- to five-year long radial velocity survey of nearby M dwarfs at an expected precision of ∼1 m s‑1, the SPIRou Legacy Survey-Planet Search (SLS-PS). In this study, we conduct a detailed Monte Carlo simulation of the SLS-PS using our current understanding of the occurrence rate of M dwarf planetary systems and physical models of stellar activity. From simultaneous modeling of planetary signals and activity, we predict the population of planets to be detected in the SLS-PS. With our fiducial survey strategy and expected instrument performance over a nominal survey length of ∼3 years, we expect SPIRou to detect {85.3}-12.4+29.3 planets including {20.0}-7.2+16.8 habitable-zone planets and {8.1}-3.2+7.6 Earth-like planets from a sample of 100 M1–M8.5 dwarfs out to 11 pc. By studying mid-to-late M dwarfs previously inaccessible to existing optical velocimeters, SPIRou will put meaningful constraints on the occurrence rate of planets around those stars including the value of {η }\\oplus at an expected level of precision of ≲ 45 % . We also predict that a subset of {46.7}-6.0+16.0 planets may be accessible with dedicated high-contrast imagers on the next generation of extremely large telescopes including {4.9}-2.0+4.7 potentially imagable Earth-like planets. Lastly, we compare the results of our fiducial survey strategy to other foreseeable survey versions to quantify which strategy is optimized to reach the SLS-PS science goals. The results of our simulations are made available to the community on GitHub (https://github.com/r-cloutier/SLSPS_Simulations).

  13. 33 CFR 149.697 - What are the requirements for a noise level survey?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... and Equipment Noise Limits § 149.697 What are the requirements for a noise level survey? (a) A survey... measured over 12 hours to derive a time weighted average (TWA) using a sound level meter and an A-weighted filter or equivalent device. (c) If the noise level throughout a space is determined to exceed 85 db(A...

  14. Predictability of twentieth century sea-level rise from past data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bittermann, Klaus; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Perrette, Mahé; Vermeer, Martin

    2013-01-01

    The prediction of global sea-level rise is one of the major challenges of climate science. While process-based models are still being improved to capture the complexity of the processes involved, semi-empirical models, exploiting the observed connection between global-mean sea level and global temperature and calibrated with data, have been developed as a complementary approach. Here we investigate whether twentieth century sea-level rise could have been predicted with such models given a knowledge of twentieth century global temperature increase. We find that either proxy or early tide gauge data do not hold enough information to constrain the model parameters well. However, in combination, the use of proxy and tide gauge sea-level data up to 1900 AD allows a good prediction of twentieth century sea-level rise, despite this rise being well outside the rates experienced in previous centuries during the calibration period of the model. The 90% confidence range for the linear twentieth century rise predicted by the semi-empirical model is 13–30 cm, whereas the observed interval (using two tide gauge data sets) is 14–26 cm. (letter)

  15. Prediction of monthly regional groundwater levels through hybrid soft-computing techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Fi-John; Chang, Li-Chiu; Huang, Chien-Wei; Kao, I.-Feng

    2016-10-01

    Groundwater systems are intrinsically heterogeneous with dynamic temporal-spatial patterns, which cause great difficulty in quantifying their complex processes, while reliable predictions of regional groundwater levels are commonly needed for managing water resources to ensure proper service of water demands within a region. In this study, we proposed a novel and flexible soft-computing technique that could effectively extract the complex high-dimensional input-output patterns of basin-wide groundwater-aquifer systems in an adaptive manner. The soft-computing models combined the Self Organized Map (SOM) and the Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) network for predicting monthly regional groundwater levels based on hydrologic forcing data. The SOM could effectively classify the temporal-spatial patterns of regional groundwater levels, the NARX could accurately predict the mean of regional groundwater levels for adjusting the selected SOM, the Kriging was used to interpolate the predictions of the adjusted SOM into finer grids of locations, and consequently the prediction of a monthly regional groundwater level map could be obtained. The Zhuoshui River basin in Taiwan was the study case, and its monthly data sets collected from 203 groundwater stations, 32 rainfall stations and 6 flow stations during 2000 and 2013 were used for modelling purpose. The results demonstrated that the hybrid SOM-NARX model could reliably and suitably predict monthly basin-wide groundwater levels with high correlations (R2 > 0.9 in both training and testing cases). The proposed methodology presents a milestone in modelling regional environmental issues and offers an insightful and promising way to predict monthly basin-wide groundwater levels, which is beneficial to authorities for sustainable water resources management.

  16. Frequency of Yoga Practice Predicts Health: Results of a National Survey of Yoga Practitioners

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alyson Ross

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Yoga shows promise as a therapeutic intervention, but relationships between yoga practice and health are underexplored. Purpose. To examine the relationship between yoga practice and health (subjective well-being, diet, BMI, smoking, alcohol/caffeine consumption, sleep, fatigue, social support, mindfulness, and physical activity. Methods. Cross-sectional, anonymous internet surveys distributed to 4307 randomly selected from 18,160 individuals at 15 US Iyengar yoga studios; 1045 (24.3% surveys completed. Results. Mean age 51.7 (± 11.7 years; 84.2% female. Frequency of home practice favorably predicted (P < .001: mindfulness, subjective well-being, BMI, fruit and vegetable consumption, vegetarian status, sleep, and fatigue. Each component of yoga practice (different categories of physical poses, breath work, meditation, philosophy study predicted at least 1 health outcome (P < .05. Conclusions. Home practice of yoga predicted health better than years of practice or class frequency. Different physical poses and yoga techniques may have unique health benefits.

  17. Groundwater level prediction of landslide based on classification and regression tree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yannan Zhao

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available According to groundwater level monitoring data of Shuping landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, based on the response relationship between influential factors such as rainfall and reservoir level and the change of groundwater level, the influential factors of groundwater level were selected. Then the classification and regression tree (CART model was constructed by the subset and used to predict the groundwater level. Through the verification, the predictive results of the test sample were consistent with the actually measured values, and the mean absolute error and relative error is 0.28 m and 1.15% respectively. To compare the support vector machine (SVM model constructed using the same set of factors, the mean absolute error and relative error of predicted results is 1.53 m and 6.11% respectively. It is indicated that CART model has not only better fitting and generalization ability, but also strong advantages in the analysis of landslide groundwater dynamic characteristics and the screening of important variables. It is an effective method for prediction of ground water level in landslides.

  18. On the increase of predictive performance with high-level data fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doeswijk, T.G.; Smilde, A.K.; Hageman, J.A.; Westerhuis, J.A.; Eeuwijk, F.A. van

    2011-01-01

    The combination of the different data sources for classification purposes, also called data fusion, can be done at different levels: low-level, i.e. concatenating data matrices, medium-level, i.e. concatenating data matrices after feature selection and high-level, i.e. combining model outputs. In this paper the predictive performance of high-level data fusion is investigated. Partial least squares is used on each of the data sets and dummy variables representing the classes are used as response variables. Based on the estimated responses y-hat j for data set j and class k, a Gaussian distribution p(g k |y-hat j ) is fitted. A simulation study is performed that shows the theoretical performance of high-level data fusion for two classes and two data sets. Within group correlations of the predicted responses of the two models and differences between the predictive ability of each of the separate models and the fused models are studied. Results show that the error rate is always less than or equal to the best performing subset and can theoretically approach zero. Negative within group correlations always improve the predictive performance. However, if the data sets have a joint basis, as with metabolomics data, this is not likely to happen. For equally performing individual classifiers the best results are expected for small within group correlations. Fusion of a non-predictive classifier with a classifier that exhibits discriminative ability lead to increased predictive performance if the within group correlations are strong. An example with real life data shows the applicability of the simulation results.

  19. Can venous ProBNP levels predict placenta accreta?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ersoy, Ali Ozgur; Oztas, Efser; Ozler, Sibel; Ersoy, Ebru; Erkenekli, Kudret; Uygur, Dilek; Caglar, Ali Turhan; Danisman, Nuri

    2016-12-01

    Placenta previa (PP) is a potential life-threatening pregnancy complication. Pro-brain natriuretic peptide (ProBNP), creatine kinase (CK), cardiac form of CK (CK-MB) and Troponin I are circulatory biomarkers related to cardiac functions. We aimed to determine whether these biomarkers are related to PP and placenta accreta. In this case-control study, fifty-four pregnant women who attended our tertiary care center for perinatology with the diagnosis of PP totalis, and of them, 14 patients with placenta accreta were recruited as the study groups. Forty-six uncomplicated control patients who were matched for age, BMI were also included. Maternal venous ProBNP, CK, CK-MB and Troponin I levels were compared between the three groups. Obstetric history characteristics were comparable among groups, generally. CK and CK-MB levels were similar among three groups. Troponin I levels in the previa and accreta groups were significantly higher than the controls. ProBNP levels in the accreta group were significantly higher than other two groups. The multivariate regression model revealed that ProBNP could predict placental adhesion anomalies. Troponin I and ProBNP levels in PP cases were higher than controls and ProBNP could predict placenta accreta.

  20. Survey of career satisfaction, lifestyle, and stress levels among pharmacy school faculty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindfelt, Tristan A; Ip, Eric J; Barnett, Mitchell J

    2015-09-15

    U.S. pharmacy school faculty were surveyed to assess their career satisfaction, lifestyle, and stress levels. A 48-item survey, administered through Qualtrics (Provo, UT), was sent to current members of the American Association of Colleges of Pharmacy and included questions regarding respondents' academic institution and appointment status; lifestyle traits; career satisfaction; work-life balance; neurologic and psychiatric diagnoses; use of illicit drugs, alcohol, and tobacco; and stress levels. of the 4787 faculty invited to participate in the survey, 811 usable surveys were collected (16.9% response rate). Nearly all respondents (95.0%) reported working 40 or more hours per week. The majority had an average daily one-way commute of less than 30 minutes (64.2%), slept 5.5-7.5 hours per night (74.8%), and exercised for no more than 120 minutes per week (61.8%). A majority of respondents (63.7%) reported being very or extremely satisfied with their current position in academia. Only 36.9% reported being very or extremely satisfied with their work-life balance. Mean perceived stress scores were near those found in the general adult population. Although most respondents reported seeing a primary care provider and dentist annually, other findings regarding preventive health measures were not as encouraging. A survey of pharmacy faculty in the United States revealed high levels of job satisfaction among respondents, but lower levels of satisfaction with work-life balance and comparable levels of stress to the general population were found. Administrators and stakeholders should explore options to improve lifestyle factors to decrease potential burnout among faculty. Copyright © 2015 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Network level pavement evaluation with 1 mm 3D survey system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelvin C.P. Wang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The latest iteration of PaveVision3D Ultra can obtain true 1 mm resolution 3D data at full-lane coverage in all 3 directions at highway speed up to 60 mph. This paper introduces the PaveVision3D Ultra technology for rapid network level pavement survey on approximately 1280 center miles of Oklahoma interstate highways. With sophisticated automated distress analyzer (ADA software interface, the collected 1 mm 3D data provide Oklahoma Department of Transportation (ODOT with comprehensive solutions for automated evaluation of pavement surface including longitudinal profile for roughness, transverse profile for rutting, predicted hydroplaning speed for safety analysis, and cracking and various surface defects for distresses. The pruned exact linear time (PELT method, an optimal partitioning algorithm, is implemented to identify change points and dynamically determine homogeneous segments so as to assist ODOT effectively using the available 1 mm 3D pavement surface condition data for decision-making. The application of 1 mm 3D laser imaging technology for network survey is unprecedented. This innovative technology allows highway agencies to access its options in using the 1 mm 3D system for its design and management purposes, particularly to meet the data needs for pavement management system (PMS, pavement ME design and highway performance monitoring system (HPMS.

  2. Site surveying and levelling

    CERN Document Server

    Clancy, John

    2013-01-01

    This popular and useful text has been completely revised and up-dated so that it forms and indipensible handbook for any student of surveying. An additional chapter on modern developments is included and the text has also been extended to cover ordnance survey; calculation of areas; computation of true horizontal length; measurement of vertical angles; Code of Measuring Practice; curve ranging and calculations of volumes for earthworks.

  3. Prediction of blast vibration level considered propagation characteristics; Denpa tokusei to koryoshita happa shindo level no yosoku

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kunimatsu, S; Jinguji, M [National Institute for Resources and Environment, Tsukuba (Japan); Yamada, M; Hirai, T [Newjec Inc., Osaka (Japan); Durucan, S; Farsangi, M

    1997-10-22

    With an objective to assess environmental influence induced by blast vibration, a study has been carried out on a method to predict vibration levels. The study has discussed a method to calculate vibration levels, in which vibration propagating characteristics are sought on blast vibration generated from an open-cut limestone mine from acceleration waveforms in the vicinity of the blast source and residential housings by using an octave analysis, and waveforms are predicted. The shortest straight line distance from the blast position to a housing is about 150 m, and the height difference is about 30 to 40 meters. The measuring instruments include a vibration level meter used for pollution measurement and a data recorder, with signals lower than 1 Hz and higher than 90 Hz being interrupted. The environmental influence assessment discusses not only the maximum value of the vibration level, but also sizes of values of each band by using a frequency analysis. The result of the discussions revealed that the prediction of the vibration levels is little affected by phase characteristics, and that no problems are caused in the measurement accuracy even if the vibration levels are predicted by using relative decay amount according to a one-third octave analysis for the propagation characteristics. 5 figs., 4 tabs.

  4. Spatial predictions at the community level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    D'Amen, Manuela; Rahbek, Carsten; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

    2017-01-01

    of communities, with a particular focus on species richness, composition, relative abundance and related attributes. We first briefly describe the concepts and theories that span the different drivers of species assembly. A combination of abiotic processes and biotic mechanisms are thought to influence...... the community assembly process. In this review, we describe four categories of drivers: (i) historical and evolutionary, (ii) environmental, (iii) biotic, and (iv) stochastic. We discuss the different modelling approaches proposed or applied at the community level and examine them from different standpoints, i......A fundamental goal of ecological research is to understand and model how processes generate patterns so that if conditions change, changes in the patterns can be predicted. Different approaches have been proposed for modelling species assemblage, but their use to predict spatial patterns of species...

  5. Epidemiological surveys on the effects of low-level radiation dose: a comparative assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rose, K.S.B.

    1988-01-01

    In this report, the health effects of low-level doses of radiation are considered by reference to published epidemiological surveys. The work was carried out with three objectives in mind: 1. to provide a comprehensive and critical review of the subject; 2. to seek consistent indications of particular health effects by collating results and comparing with those from surveys at moderate-level doses; 3. to provide an authoritative view on the epidemiology of low-level radiation-induced health effects. Vol E (DRAFT A) is appended and contains group collation tables. Epidemiological surveys can be conveniently divided into four classes (A, B, C, D) according to the phase of life when irradiation occurs or the effect is diagnosed. The first of the classes (A) is addressed here; this class is concerned with possible effects arising from radiation received by a parent before conception. Possible effects of preconception irradiation were identified under four broad groupings. These are Down's syndrome, ''Indicators of Reproductive Damage'' (mainly Primary Sterility, Congenital Abnormalities, Sex Ratio, Fetal Mortality, Infant Mortality), Childhood Malignancies, and Chromosomal Changes in Abortuses. Information about each survey, and comparisons with results from moderate-level dose surveys, are contained in synopses that are set out in the Appendix. (author)

  6. Pre-1989 epidemiological surveys of low-level dose pre-conception irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rose, K.S.B.

    1990-01-01

    Information from 59 pre-1989 epidemiological surveys concerning pre-conception irradiation at doses less than 0.1 Gy has been collated to determine whether any consistent patterns of health effects emerge. The surveys are considered in three groups: childhood malignancies, Down's syndrome and indicators of reproductive damage. Although a pattern is observed for Down's syndrome, no reliable associations are apparent for childhood malignancies (where all surveys pre-date the Gardner survey at Sellafield) or indications of reproductive damage. The twelve surveys of Down's syndrome in relation to maternal pre-conception irradiation received for medical reasons show a pattern consistent with a doubling dose of about 20 mGy. This doubling dose value is, however, not based on individual measurements of ovarian dose and is inconsistent with results from high-level dose surveys. There is no association between paternal irradiation and Down's syndrome. (author)

  7. Fasting Lipoprotein Lipase Protein Levels Can Predict a Postmeal Increment of Triglyceride Levels in Fasting Normohypertriglyceridemic Subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuzaki, Kokoro; Kotani, Kazuhiko; Yamada, Kazunori; Sakane, Naoki

    2016-09-01

    Although a postprandial increment in triglyceride (TG) levels is considered to be a risk factor for atherogenesis, tests (e.g., fat load) to assess postprandial changes in TG levels cannot be easily applied to clinical practice. Therefore, fasting markers that predict postprandial TG states are needed to be developed. One current candidate is lipoprotein lipase (LPL) protein, a molecule that hydrides TGs. This study investigated whether fasting LPL levels could predict postprandial TG levels. A total of 17 subjects (11 men, 6 women, mean age 52 ± 11 years) with normotriglyceridemia during fasting underwent the meal test. Several fasting parameters, including LPL, were measured for the area under the curve of postprandial TGs (AUC-TG). The subjects' mean fasting TG level was 1.30 mmol/l, and their mean LPL level was 41.6 ng/ml. The subjects' TG levels increased after loading (they peaked after two postprandial hours). Stepwise multiple regression analysis demonstrated that fasting TG levels were a predictor of the AUC-TG. In addition, fasting LPL mass levels were found to be a predictor of the AUC-TG (β = 0.65, P fasting TG levels. Fasting LPL levels may be useful to predict postprandial TG increment in this population. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Low-level radioactive waste program of the US Geological Survey - in transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, J.N.

    1983-01-01

    In 1983, the US Geological Survey will publish final reports of geohydrologic investigations at five commercial low-level, radioactive-waste burial sites in the United States. These reports mark the end of the first phase of the US Geological Survey program to improve the understanding of earth-science principles related to the effective disposal of low-level wastes. The second phase, which was initiated in 1981, is being developed to address geohydrologic issues identified as needing greater attention based upon results of the first-phase site studies. Specific program elements include unsaturated-zone hydrology, geochemistry, clay mineralogy, surface geophysical techniques, and model development and testing. The information and expertise developed from these and previous studies will allow the US Geological Survey to provide sound technical assistance to State low-level waste compacts, the Department of Energy, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and the Environmental Protection Agency. 11 references

  9. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn; Twisk, Jos; Bültmann, Ute; Bjørner, Jakob

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Based on the literature, 15 predictor variables were retrieved from the DAnish National working Environment Survey (DANES) and included in a model predicting incident LTSA (≥4 consecutive weeks) during 1-year follow-up in a sample of 4000 DANES participants. The 15-predictor model was reduced by backward stepwise statistical techniques and then validated in a sample of 2524 DANES participants, not included in the development sample. Identification of employees at increased LTSA risk was investigated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis; the area-under-the-ROC-curve (AUC) reflected discrimination between employees with and without LTSA during follow-up. The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC = 0.68; 95% CI 0.61-0.76), but not practically useful. A prediction model based on occupational health survey variables identified employees with an increased LTSA risk, but should be further developed into a practically useful tool to predict the risk of LTSA in the general working population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for

  10. Geodetic Survey Water Level Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Over one million images of National Coast & Geodetic Survey (now NOAA's National Geodetic Survey/NGS) forms captured from microfiche. Tabular forms and charts...

  11. Blood glucose level prediction based on support vector regression using mobile platforms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reymann, Maximilian P; Dorschky, Eva; Groh, Benjamin H; Martindale, Christine; Blank, Peter; Eskofier, Bjoern M

    2016-08-01

    The correct treatment of diabetes is vital to a patient's health: Staying within defined blood glucose levels prevents dangerous short- and long-term effects on the body. Mobile devices informing patients about their future blood glucose levels could enable them to take counter-measures to prevent hypo or hyper periods. Previous work addressed this challenge by predicting the blood glucose levels using regression models. However, these approaches required a physiological model, representing the human body's response to insulin and glucose intake, or are not directly applicable to mobile platforms (smart phones, tablets). In this paper, we propose an algorithm for mobile platforms to predict blood glucose levels without the need for a physiological model. Using an online software simulator program, we trained a Support Vector Regression (SVR) model and exported the parameter settings to our mobile platform. The prediction accuracy of our mobile platform was evaluated with pre-recorded data of a type 1 diabetes patient. The blood glucose level was predicted with an error of 19 % compared to the true value. Considering the permitted error of commercially used devices of 15 %, our algorithm is the basis for further development of mobile prediction algorithms.

  12. Radon levels in domestic dwellings built since the introduction of the 1997 building regulations. Report of a pilot survey in Ennis, County Clare

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Synnott, H.; Pollard, D.; Colgan, P.A.

    2003-04-01

    Amending Building Regulations were introduced in December 1997, which require that measures be taken during construction to prevent the entry of radon into buildings from the underlying soil. These Regulations apply to buildings built on or after the 1 July 1998. During 2001, the Radiological Protection Institute of Ireland (RPII) undertook a pilot study of radon levels in houses built since that date with the aim of assessing the impact of these new Regulations. The area selected for this study was the 10 km Irish National Grid square including the town of Ennis, Co Clare. The RPII's National Radon Survey predicts that 27% of all dwellings in this grid square have radon concentrations in excess of the national Reference Level of 200 Bq/m3. Two hundred and seventy nine householders, whose houses were built since the amending Regulations came into effect, were invited to participate in a free survey and 97 of these agreed to do so. Participating householders were asked to complete a questionnaire aimed at assessing their knowledge of the radon preventive measures included in their house. Twelve percent of the houses measured in this survey were found to have radon levels in excess of the national Reference Level. This figure indicates a significant reduction as compared with the National Radon Survey prediction for the same grid square. It is difficult, however, to draw definitive conclusions from these data regarding the effectiveness of the new Regulations due to the very different age distribution for the two sets of houses and differences between current and historic building practices. Further work is underway comparing radon levels in houses built both immediately before and after the introduction of the 1997 Regulations, which aims to address outstanding questions. Householders' level of awareness of the radon preventive measures included in their house was low; 45% and 36% respectively of respondents were unaware of whether their house had a radon sump or

  13. Non-invasive prediction of hematocrit levels by portable visible and near-infrared spectrophotometer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakudo, Akikazu; Kato, Yukiko Hakariya; Kuratsune, Hirohiko; Ikuta, Kazuyoshi

    2009-10-01

    After blood donation, in some individuals having polycythemia, dehydration causes anemia. Although the hematocrit (Ht) level is closely related to anemia, the current method of measuring Ht is performed after blood drawing. Furthermore, the monitoring of Ht levels contributes to a healthy life. Therefore, a non-invasive test for Ht is warranted for the safe donation of blood and good quality of life. A non-invasive procedure for the prediction of hematocrit levels was developed on the basis of a chemometric analysis of visible and near-infrared (Vis-NIR) spectra of the thumbs using portable spectrophotometer. Transmittance spectra in the 600- to 1100-nm region from thumbs of Japanese volunteers were subjected to a partial least squares regression (PLSR) analysis and leave-out cross-validation to develop chemometric models for predicting Ht levels. Ht levels of masked samples predicted by this model from Vis-NIR spectra provided a coefficient of determination in prediction of 0.6349 with a standard error of prediction of 3.704% and a detection limit in prediction of 17.14%, indicating that the model is applicable for normal and abnormal value in Ht level. These results suggest portable Vis-NIR spectrophotometer to have potential for the non-invasive measurement of Ht levels with a combination of PLSR analysis.

  14. Predicting Age of Sexual Initiation: Family-Level Antecedents in Three Ethnic Groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moilanen, Kristin L.; Leary, Janie M.; Watson, S. Michelle; Ottley, Jason

    2018-01-01

    We investigated how family characteristics and experiences during early adolescence predicted timing of sexual initiation. In addition, we investigated adolescent sex and race/ethnicity as potential moderating factors. As part of the Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth-1979 (CNLSY-79), 799 adolescents aged 12 to 15 years provided…

  15. Prediction of SO{sub 2} levels using neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belen M. Fernandez de Castro; Jose Manuel Prada Sanchez; Wenceslao Gonzalez Manteiga [and others] [University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago (Spain). Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Faculty of Mathematics

    2003-05-01

    The paper presents an adaptation of the air pollution control help system in the neighbourhood of a coal-fired power plant in As Pontes (A Coruna, Spain), property of Endesa Generacion S.A., to the European Council Directive 1999/30/CE. This system contains a statistical prediction made half an hour before the measurement, and it helps the staff in the power plant prevent air quality level episodes. The prediction is made using neural network models. This prediction is compared with one made by a semiparametric model. 11 refs., 6 figs., 4 tabs.

  16. Genetic Programming for Sea Level Predictions in an Island Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.A. Ghorbani

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Accurate predictions of sea-level are important for geodetic applications, navigation, coastal, industrial and tourist activities. In the current work, the Genetic Programming (GP and artificial neural networks (ANNs were applied to forecast half-daily and daily sea-level variations from 12 hours to 5 days ahead. The measurements at the Cocos (Keeling Islands in the Indian Ocean were used for training and testing of the employed artificial intelligence techniques. A comparison was performed of the predictions from the GP model and the ANN simulations. Based on the comparison outcomes, it was found that the Genetic Programming approach can be successfully employed in forecasting of sea level variations.

  17. Fuzzy Bi-level Decision-Making Techniques: A Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangquan Zhang

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Bi-level decision-making techniques aim to deal with decentralized management problems that feature interactive decision entities distributed throughout a bi-level hierarchy. A challenge in handling bi-level decision problems is that various uncertainties naturally appear in decision-making process. Significant efforts have been devoted that fuzzy set techniques can be used to effectively deal with uncertain issues in bi-level decision-making, known as fuzzy bi-level decision-making techniques, and researchers have successfully gained experience in this area. It is thus vital that an instructive review of current trends in this area should be conducted, not only of the theoretical research but also the practical developments. This paper systematically reviews up-to-date fuzzy bi-level decisionmaking techniques, including models, approaches, algorithms and systems. It also clusters related technique developments into four main categories: basic fuzzy bi-level decision-making, fuzzy bi-level decision-making with multiple optima, fuzzy random bi-level decision-making, and the applications of bi-level decision-making techniques in different domains. By providing state-of-the-art knowledge, this survey paper will directly support researchers and practitioners in their understanding of developments in theoretical research results and applications in relation to fuzzy bi-level decision-making techniques.

  18. Recalled first reactions to inhaling nicotine predict the level of physical dependence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wellman, Robert J; DiFranza, Joseph R; O'Loughlin, Jennifer

    2014-10-01

    The level of physical dependence is a measure of addiction that correlates highly with addiction-associated changes in brain structure. We sought to determine whether age at first inhalation and initial reactions to inhaling nicotine are related to level of physical dependence in early adulthood. Young adults (n=312; mean age=24 years; 51% female) from the Nicotine Dependence in Teens study who had smoked at least once in the preceding three months completed self-report questionnaires in 2011-12. We assessed level of physical dependence with three validated self-report items assessing 'wanting,' 'craving' and 'needing' triggered by nicotine deprivation. Survey items assessed smoking behavior, including age at first inhalation, and recalled first reactions to inhaling nicotine. After adjusting for covariates, experiencing relaxation, heart racing/pounding, rush or "buzz" (OR=1.45; 95% CI: 1.08, 1.94) and dizziness (OR=1.58; 95% CI: 1.15, 2.18) at first nicotine inhalation were associated with an increased odds of being at a higher level of physical dependence in young adulthood; the association for experiencing relaxation (OR=1.78; 95% CI: 1.20, 2.64) and heart racing/pounding (OR=1.51; 95% CI: 1.00, 2.28) persisted after additionally controlling for all other first reactions. Neither age at first inhalation nor unpleasant first reactions predicted level of physical dependence. In accordance with prior research, our findings suggest that smokers who are particularly sensitive to the pleasant, "buzz-related" and generally arousing effects of nicotine may be more likely to attain higher levels of physical dependence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. SURVEY REGARDING THE LEVEL OF PRODUCT LIFECYCLE MANAGEMENT IN MANUFACTURING COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    František Freiberg

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is about a questionnaire survey regarding the level of product lifecycle management in manufacturing companies in the Czech Republic. Based on the research available from foreign and domestic literature, a questionnaire survey was compiled and carried out with the purpose of applying the methods used in the life cycle management in selected areas: maintenance, information systems and the cost of the product lifecycle. The survey is carried out through a printed as well as an electronic questionnaire with additional structured interviews in selected manufacturing companies in the Czech Republic, Slovak Republic and Romania.

  20. Predicting glycated hemoglobin levels in the non-diabetic general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rauh, Simone P; Heymans, Martijn W; Koopman, Anitra D M

    2017-01-01

    AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To develop a prediction model that can predict HbA1c levels after six years in the non-diabetic general population, including previously used readily available predictors. METHODS: Data from 5,762 initially non-diabetic subjects from three population-based cohorts (Hoorn Study, I...

  1. Statistical models to predict flows at monthly level in Salvajina

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez, Harold O

    1994-01-01

    It thinks about and models of lineal regression evaluate at monthly level that they allow to predict flows in Salvajina, with base in predictions variable, like the difference of pressure between Darwin and Tahiti, precipitation in Piendamo Cauca), temperature in Port Chicama (Peru) and pressure in Tahiti

  2. Predictive Factors of Patient Satisfaction with Pharmacy Services in South Korea: A Cross-Sectional Study of National Level Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sunkyung; Godwin, Onyeka Peter; Kim, Kyungah; Lee, Euni

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Patient satisfaction has emerged as a prerequisite to improving patients’ health behaviors leading to better health care outcomes. This study was to identify predictive determinants for patient satisfaction with pharmacy services using national-level data. Methods A cross-sectional evaluation was conducted using 2008 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) data. To assess the predictive factors for patient satisfaction with pharmacy services, an ordinal logistic regression model was conducted adjusting for patient characteristics, clinical comorbidities, and perception of health. Results A total of 9,744 people, a representative sample of 48.2 million Koreans, participated in the 2008 KNHANES, of whom 2,188 (23.6%) reported visits to pharmacy within the last 2 weeks prior to the survey. Of the patients who visited the pharmacy, 74.6% reported to be either “very satisfied” or “satisfied,” and 25.4% responded as being “neutral,” “dissatisfied,” or “very dissatisfied.” A multivariate ordinal logistic regression analysis with weighted observations revealed that patients with fair perception of health (adjusted OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.01–1.74; ppatient satisfaction with pharmacy services. PMID:26540165

  3. Historical Trust Levels Predict Current Welfare State Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergh, Andreas; Bjørnskov, Christian

    Using cross-sectional data for 76 countries, we apply instrumental variable techniques based on pronoun drop, temperature and monarchies to demonstrate that historical trust levels predict several indicators of current welfare state design, including universalism and high levels of regulatory...... freedom. We argue that high levels of trust and trustworthiness are necessary, but not sufficient, conditions for societies to develop successful universal welfare states that would otherwise be highly vulnerable to free riding and fraudulent behavior. Our results do not exclude positive feedback from...... welfare state universalism to individual trust, although we claim that the important causal link runs from historically trust levels to current welfare state design....

  4. New CMA survey predicts 8% sales, 13% profit gains in 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plishner, E.S.

    1992-01-01

    The Chemical Manufacturers Association (CMA; Washington) fall economic survey predicts a 13% net income gain for the chemical industry in 1993. Of 84 member companies responding to the query, 84% expected an income gain. Among companies with sales of more than $1 billion/year, predominantly commodity chemical companies with currently depressed earnings, the median expected improvement is 20%. Among companies with sales of less than $1 billion/year, where more specialty companies are represented, the median 1993 forecast is for 12% profit growth

  5. Towards an Airframe Noise Prediction Methodology: Survey of Current Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farassat, Fereidoun; Casper, Jay H.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we present a critical survey of the current airframe noise (AFN) prediction methodologies. Four methodologies are recognized. These are the fully analytic method, CFD combined with the acoustic analogy, the semi-empirical method and fully numerical method. It is argued that for the immediate need of the aircraft industry, the semi-empirical method based on recent high quality acoustic database is the best available method. The method based on CFD and the Ffowcs William- Hawkings (FW-H) equation with penetrable data surface (FW-Hpds ) has advanced considerably and much experience has been gained in its use. However, more research is needed in the near future particularly in the area of turbulence simulation. The fully numerical method will take longer to reach maturity. Based on the current trends, it is predicted that this method will eventually develop into the method of choice. Both the turbulence simulation and propagation methods need to develop more for this method to become useful. Nonetheless, the authors propose that the method based on a combination of numerical and analytical techniques, e.g., CFD combined with FW-H equation, should also be worked on. In this effort, the current symbolic algebra software will allow more analytical approaches to be incorporated into AFN prediction methods.

  6. A survey of work engagement and psychological capital levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonner, Lynda

    2016-08-11

    To evaluate the relationship between work engagement and psychological capital (PsyCap) levels reported by registered nurses. PsyCap is a developable human resource. Research on PsyCap as an antecedent to work engagement in nurses is needed. A convenience sample of 137 registered nurses participated in this quantitative cross-sectional survey. Questionnaires measured self-reported levels of work engagement and psychological capital. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used for data analysis. There was a statistically significant correlation between work engagement and PsyCap scores (r=0.633, pworking at band 5 level reported statistically significantly lower PsyCap scores compared with nurses working at band 6 and 7 levels. Nurses reporting high levels of work engagement also reported high levels of PsyCap. Band 5 nurses might benefit most from interventions to increase their PsyCap. This study supports PsyCap as an antecedent to work engagement.

  7. Markovian prediction of future values for food grains in the economic survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathish, S.; Khadar Babu, S. K.

    2017-11-01

    Now-a-days prediction and forecasting are plays a vital role in research. For prediction, regression is useful to predict the future value and current value on production process. In this paper, we assume food grain production exhibit Markov chain dependency and time homogeneity. The economic generative performance evaluation the balance time artificial fertilization different level in Estrusdetection using a daily Markov chain model. Finally, Markov process prediction gives better performance compare with Regression model.

  8. Multi-level learning: improving the prediction of protein, domain and residue interactions by allowing information flow between levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McDermott Drew

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Proteins interact through specific binding interfaces that contain many residues in domains. Protein interactions thus occur on three different levels of a concept hierarchy: whole-proteins, domains, and residues. Each level offers a distinct and complementary set of features for computationally predicting interactions, including functional genomic features of whole proteins, evolutionary features of domain families and physical-chemical features of individual residues. The predictions at each level could benefit from using the features at all three levels. However, it is not trivial as the features are provided at different granularity. Results To link up the predictions at the three levels, we propose a multi-level machine-learning framework that allows for explicit information flow between the levels. We demonstrate, using representative yeast interaction networks, that our algorithm is able to utilize complementary feature sets to make more accurate predictions at the three levels than when the three problems are approached independently. To facilitate application of our multi-level learning framework, we discuss three key aspects of multi-level learning and the corresponding design choices that we have made in the implementation of a concrete learning algorithm. 1 Architecture of information flow: we show the greater flexibility of bidirectional flow over independent levels and unidirectional flow; 2 Coupling mechanism of the different levels: We show how this can be accomplished via augmenting the training sets at each level, and discuss the prevention of error propagation between different levels by means of soft coupling; 3 Sparseness of data: We show that the multi-level framework compounds data sparsity issues, and discuss how this can be dealt with by building local models in information-rich parts of the data. Our proof-of-concept learning algorithm demonstrates the advantage of combining levels, and opens up

  9. Prediction of objectively measured physical activity and sedentariness among blue-collar workers using survey questionnaires

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gupta, Nidhi; Heiden, Marina; Mathiassen, Svend Erik

    2016-01-01

    responded to a questionnaire containing information about personal and work related variables, available in most large epidemiological studies and surveys. Workers also wore accelerometers for 1-4 days measuring time spent sedentary and in physical activity, defined as non-sedentary time. Least......-squares linear regression models were developed, predicting objectively measured exposures from selected predictors in the questionnaire. RESULTS: A full prediction model based on age, gender, body mass index, job group, self-reported occupational physical activity (OPA), and self-reported occupational sedentary...

  10. Predict the Medicare Functional Classification Level (K-level) using the Amputee Mobility Predictor in people with unilateral transfemoral and transtibial amputation: A pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillon, Michael P; Major, Matthew J; Kaluf, Brian; Balasanov, Yuri; Fatone, Stefania

    2018-04-01

    While Amputee Mobility Predictor scores differ between Medicare Functional Classification Levels (K-level), this does not demonstrate that the Amputee Mobility Predictor can accurately predict K-level. To determine how accurately K-level could be predicted using the Amputee Mobility Predictor in combination with patient characteristics for persons with transtibial and transfemoral amputation. Prediction. A cumulative odds ordinal logistic regression was built to determine the effect that the Amputee Mobility Predictor, in combination with patient characteristics, had on the odds of being assigned to a particular K-level in 198 people with transtibial or transfemoral amputation. For people assigned to the K2 or K3 level by their clinician, the Amputee Mobility Predictor predicted the clinician-assigned K-level more than 80% of the time. For people assigned to the K1 or K4 level by their clinician, the prediction of clinician-assigned K-level was less accurate. The odds of being in a higher K-level improved with younger age and transfemoral amputation. Ordinal logistic regression can be used to predict the odds of being assigned to a particular K-level using the Amputee Mobility Predictor and patient characteristics. This pilot study highlighted critical method design issues, such as potential predictor variables and sample size requirements for future prospective research. Clinical relevance This pilot study demonstrated that the odds of being assigned a particular K-level could be predicted using the Amputee Mobility Predictor score and patient characteristics. While the model seemed sufficiently accurate to predict clinician assignment to the K2 or K3 level, further work is needed in larger and more representative samples, particularly for people with low (K1) and high (K4) levels of mobility, to be confident in the model's predictive value prior to use in clinical practice.

  11. Feasibility online survey to estimate physical activity level among the students studying professional courses: a cross-sectional online survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudha, Bhumika; Samuel, Asir John; Narkeesh, Kanimozhi

    2018-02-01

    The aim of the study was to estimate the physical activity (PA) level among the professional college students in North India. One hundred three professional college students in the age group of 18-25 years were recruited by simple random sampling for this cross-sectional online survey. The survey was advertised on the social networking sites (Facebook, WhatsApp) through a link www.surveymonkey.com/r/MG-588BY. A Short Form of International Physical Activity Questionnaire was used for this survey study. The questionnaire included total 8 questions on the basis of previous 7 days. The questionnaire consists of 3 main categories which were vigorous, moderate and high PA. Time spent in each activity level was multiplied with the metabolic equivalent of task (MET), which has previously set to 8.0 for vigorous activity, 4.0 for moderate activity, 3.3 for walking, and 1.5 for sitting. By multiplying MET with number of days and minutes performed weekly, amount of each activity level was calculated and measured as MET-min/wk. Further by adding MET minutes for each activity level, total MET-min/wk was calculated. Total number of 100 students participated in this study, and it was shown that all professional course students show different levels in PA. The total PA level among professional college students, which includes, physiotherapy, dental, medical, nursing, lab technician, pharmacy, management, law, engineering, were 434.4 (0-7,866), 170.3 (0-1,129), 87.7 (0-445), 102.8 (0-180), 469 (0-1,164), 0 (0-0), 645 (0-1,836), 337 (0-1,890), 396 (0-968) MET-min/wk respectively. PA levels among professional college students in North India have been established.

  12. [Key content and formulation of national Chinese materia medica resources survey at county level].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Jian-Wei; Zhang, Xiao-Bo; Li, Hai-Tao; Guo, Lan-Ping; Zhao, Run-Huai; Zhang, Ben-Gang; Sun, Li-Ying; Huang, Lu-Qi

    2013-08-01

    According to National Census for Water, National Population Census, National Land and Resources Survey, and work experience of experimental measures for national Chinese materia medica resources(CMMR) survey,the national CMMR survey at the county level is the key point of whole survey, that includes organization and management, field survey, sorting data three key links. Organization and management works of national CMMR survey needs to finish four key contents, there are definite goals and tasks, practicable crew, preparation directory, and security assurance. Field survey works of the national CMMR survey needs to finish five key contents, there are preparation works for field survey, the choice of the key survey area (samples), fill in the questionnaire, video data collection, specimen and other physical collection. Sorting data works of the national CMMR survey needs to finish tree key contents, there are data, specimen and census results.

  13. Collection-Level Surveys for Special Collections: Coalescing Descriptors across Standards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ascher, James P.; Ferris, Anna M.

    2012-01-01

    Developing collection-level surveys to expose hidden collections in special collections and archives departments within ARL libraries has received a great deal of scholarly attention in the recent years. Numerous standards have been explored, and each has its strengths and weaknesses. This paper summarizes some of the major initiatives in…

  14. Predicting farm-level animal populations using environmental and socioeconomic variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Andel, Mary; Jewell, Christopher; McKenzie, Joanna; Hollings, Tracey; Robinson, Andrew; Burgman, Mark; Bingham, Paul; Carpenter, Tim

    2017-09-15

    Accurate information on the geographic distribution of domestic animal populations helps biosecurity authorities to efficiently prepare for and rapidly eradicate exotic diseases, such as Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD). Developing and maintaining sufficiently high-quality data resources is expensive and time consuming. Statistical modelling of population density and distribution has only begun to be applied to farm animal populations, although it is commonly used in wildlife ecology. We developed zero-inflated Poisson regression models in a Bayesian framework using environmental and socioeconomic variables to predict the counts of livestock units (LSUs) and of cattle on spatially referenced farm polygons in a commercially available New Zealand farm database, Agribase. Farm-level counts of cattle and of LSUs varied considerably by region, because of the heterogeneous farming landscape in New Zealand. The amount of high quality pasture per farm was significantly associated with the presence of both cattle and LSUs. Internal model validation (predictive performance) showed that the models were able to predict the count of the animal population on groups of farms that were located in randomly selected 3km zones with a high level of accuracy. Predicting cattle or LSU counts on individual farms was less accurate. Predicted counts were statistically significantly more variable for farms that were contract grazing dry stock, such as replacement dairy heifers and dairy cattle not currently producing milk, compared with other farm types. This analysis presents a way to predict numbers of LSUs and cattle for farms using environmental and socio-economic data. The technique has the potential to be extrapolated to predicting other pastoral based livestock species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Predictive modelling of noise level generated during sawing of rocks

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper presents an experimental and statistical study on noise level generated during of rock sawing by circular diamond sawblades. Influence of the operating variables and rock properties on the noise level are investigated and analysed. Statistical analyses are then employed and models are built for the prediction of ...

  16. TH-A-9A-01: Active Optical Flow Model: Predicting Voxel-Level Dose Prediction in Spine SBRT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, J; Wu, Q.J.; Yin, F; Kirkpatrick, J; Cabrera, A [Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Ge, Y [University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC (United States)

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: To predict voxel-level dose distribution and enable effective evaluation of cord dose sparing in spine SBRT. Methods: We present an active optical flow model (AOFM) to statistically describe cord dose variations and train a predictive model to represent correlations between AOFM and PTV contours. Thirty clinically accepted spine SBRT plans are evenly divided into training and testing datasets. The development of predictive model consists of 1) collecting a sequence of dose maps including PTV and OAR (spinal cord) as well as a set of associated PTV contours adjacent to OAR from the training dataset, 2) classifying data into five groups based on PTV's locations relative to OAR, two “Top”s, “Left”, “Right”, and “Bottom”, 3) randomly selecting a dose map as the reference in each group and applying rigid registration and optical flow deformation to match all other maps to the reference, 4) building AOFM by importing optical flow vectors and dose values into the principal component analysis (PCA), 5) applying another PCA to features of PTV and OAR contours to generate an active shape model (ASM), and 6) computing a linear regression model of correlations between AOFM and ASM.When predicting dose distribution of a new case in the testing dataset, the PTV is first assigned to a group based on its contour characteristics. Contour features are then transformed into ASM's principal coordinates of the selected group. Finally, voxel-level dose distribution is determined by mapping from the ASM space to the AOFM space using the predictive model. Results: The DVHs predicted by the AOFM-based model and those in clinical plans are comparable in training and testing datasets. At 2% volume the dose difference between predicted and clinical plans is 4.2±4.4% and 3.3±3.5% in the training and testing datasets, respectively. Conclusion: The AOFM is effective in predicting voxel-level dose distribution for spine SBRT. Partially supported by NIH

  17. TH-A-9A-01: Active Optical Flow Model: Predicting Voxel-Level Dose Prediction in Spine SBRT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, J; Wu, Q.J.; Yin, F; Kirkpatrick, J; Cabrera, A; Ge, Y

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To predict voxel-level dose distribution and enable effective evaluation of cord dose sparing in spine SBRT. Methods: We present an active optical flow model (AOFM) to statistically describe cord dose variations and train a predictive model to represent correlations between AOFM and PTV contours. Thirty clinically accepted spine SBRT plans are evenly divided into training and testing datasets. The development of predictive model consists of 1) collecting a sequence of dose maps including PTV and OAR (spinal cord) as well as a set of associated PTV contours adjacent to OAR from the training dataset, 2) classifying data into five groups based on PTV's locations relative to OAR, two “Top”s, “Left”, “Right”, and “Bottom”, 3) randomly selecting a dose map as the reference in each group and applying rigid registration and optical flow deformation to match all other maps to the reference, 4) building AOFM by importing optical flow vectors and dose values into the principal component analysis (PCA), 5) applying another PCA to features of PTV and OAR contours to generate an active shape model (ASM), and 6) computing a linear regression model of correlations between AOFM and ASM.When predicting dose distribution of a new case in the testing dataset, the PTV is first assigned to a group based on its contour characteristics. Contour features are then transformed into ASM's principal coordinates of the selected group. Finally, voxel-level dose distribution is determined by mapping from the ASM space to the AOFM space using the predictive model. Results: The DVHs predicted by the AOFM-based model and those in clinical plans are comparable in training and testing datasets. At 2% volume the dose difference between predicted and clinical plans is 4.2±4.4% and 3.3±3.5% in the training and testing datasets, respectively. Conclusion: The AOFM is effective in predicting voxel-level dose distribution for spine SBRT. Partially supported by NIH

  18. The survey of dwellings with increased radon levels in Slovakia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vicanova, M.

    1998-01-01

    This national survey of indoor radon measurements in a sample of dwellings in Slovakia was organised by the Institute of Preventive and Clinical Medicine in Bratislava. The aim was to find districts and type of dwellings with the highest indoor radon concentrations and to estimate the radiation load of the Slovak population owing the indoor radon exposure. Passive solid state nuclear track detectors were used to measure indoor radon concentrations. The detectors were polyallyldiglycolcarbonate CR-39 which were placed in about 6,000 selected houses (minimum two detectors for every residence). After six months exposed detectors and questionnaires were returned to for analysis. Electrochemical etching combined with a chemical pre-etching process was used for evaluating detectors. Present results are from 3,657 residents (0.2% of total dwellings in Slovakia). It was found that the arithmetic mean of equilibrium equivalent concentration (EEC) was 86 ± 119 Bq m -3 , the geometric mean was about 41 ± 2.22 Bq m -3 and 11% of dwellings (N = 409) have a greater EEC of radon than the action level (200 Bq m -3 ). The national survey results suggest that Slovakia may be among the countries with high radon risk in Central Europe. The population-weighted arithmetic mean is 48 Bq m -3 , the maximum value found was 1500 Bq m -3 and the average annual effective dose from indoor radon exposure is 2.1 mSv. The district with the highest indoor radon concentrations correlate with known presence of uranium in the soil, therefore the soil is probably the main source of radon in Slovak dwellings. This survey of dwellings with increased radon levels supported this conclusion, because the highest radon levels were found in older family houses without cellars. (author)

  19. Pilot survey of subway and bus stop noise levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gershon, Robyn R M; Neitzel, Richard; Barrera, Marissa A; Akram, Muhammad

    2006-09-01

    Excessive noise exposure is a serious global urban health problem, adversely affecting millions of people. One often cited source of urban noise is mass transit, particularly subway systems. As a first step in determining risk within this context, we recently conducted an environmental survey of noise levels of the New York City transit system. Over 90 noise measurements were made using a sound level meter. Average and maximum noise levels were measured on subway platforms, and maximum levels were measured inside subway cars and at several bus stops for comparison purposes. The average noise level measured on the subway platforms was 86 +/- 4 dBA (decibel-A weighting). Maximum levels of 106, 112, and 89 dBA were measured on subway platforms, inside subway cars, and at bus stops, respectively. These results indicate that noise levels in subway and bus stop environments have the potential to exceed recommended exposure guidelines from the World Health Organization (WHO) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), given sufficient exposure duration. Risk reduction strategies following the standard hierarchy of control measures should be applied, where feasible, to reduce subway noise exposure.

  20. Multi-level machine learning prediction of protein–protein interactions in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julian Zubek

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Accurate identification of protein–protein interactions (PPI is the key step in understanding proteins’ biological functions, which are typically context-dependent. Many existing PPI predictors rely on aggregated features from protein sequences, however only a few methods exploit local information about specific residue contacts. In this work we present a two-stage machine learning approach for prediction of protein–protein interactions. We start with the carefully filtered data on protein complexes available for Saccharomyces cerevisiae in the Protein Data Bank (PDB database. First, we build linear descriptions of interacting and non-interacting sequence segment pairs based on their inter-residue distances. Secondly, we train machine learning classifiers to predict binary segment interactions for any two short sequence fragments. The final prediction of the protein–protein interaction is done using the 2D matrix representation of all-against-all possible interacting sequence segments of both analysed proteins. The level-I predictor achieves 0.88 AUC for micro-scale, i.e., residue-level prediction. The level-II predictor improves the results further by a more complex learning paradigm. We perform 30-fold macro-scale, i.e., protein-level cross-validation experiment. The level-II predictor using PSIPRED-predicted secondary structure reaches 0.70 precision, 0.68 recall, and 0.70 AUC, whereas other popular methods provide results below 0.6 threshold (recall, precision, AUC. Our results demonstrate that multi-scale sequence features aggregation procedure is able to improve the machine learning results by more than 10% as compared to other sequence representations. Prepared datasets and source code for our experimental pipeline are freely available for download from: http://zubekj.github.io/mlppi/ (open source Python implementation, OS independent.

  1. The dog and cat population on Maio Island, Cape Verde: characterisation and prediction based on household survey and remotely sensed imagery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes Antunes, Ana Carolina; Ducheyne, Els; Bryssinckx, Ward; Vieira, Sara; Malta, Manuel; Vaz, Yolanda; Nunes, Telmo; Mintiens, Koen

    2015-11-04

    The objective was to estimate and characterise the dog and cat population on Maio Island, Cape Verde. Remotely sensed imagery was used to document the number of houses across the island and a household survey was carried out in six administrative areas recording the location of each animal using a global positioning system instrument. Linear statistical models were applied to predict the dog and cat populations based on the number of houses found and according to various levels of data aggregation. In the surveyed localities, a total of 457 dogs and 306 cats were found. The majority of animals had owners and only a few had free access to outdoor activities. The estimated population size was 531 dogs [95% confidence interval (CI): 453-609] and 354 cats (95% CI: 275-431). Stray animals were not a concern on the island in contrast to the rest of the country.

  2. Predicting health plan member retention from satisfaction surveys: the moderating role of intention and complaint voicing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huppertz, John W

    2008-01-01

    Many health plans have tried to increase member retention by improving their scores on customer satisfaction surveys. However, prior research has demonstrated weak relationships between member satisfaction and retention, suggesting that other variables are needed to understand how satisfaction impacts member retention. In a longitudinal study 4,806 health plan members who completed satisfaction surveys were re-assessed three years later; we compared measures of satisfaction, intention, and complaining behavior from voluntary disenrollees and retained members. The relationship between satisfaction and retention was moderated by members' intentions to disenroll. The findings suggest that health plans can enhance the predictive validity of their satisfaction surveys by including measures of both satisfaction and intentions.

  3. Listening to firms : how to use firm-level surveys to assess constraints on private sector development

    OpenAIRE

    Stone, Andrew H.W.

    1992-01-01

    Firm-level surveys elicit information important to formulating sound policy advice and designing projects to promote private sector development. Drawing on recent World Bank experience in eight countries, the author advises why and how to implement targeted field surveys by answering the following questions: Why use targeted field surveys? How should surveys be focused and designed? What types of questions work best in surveys? How can surveys be oriented toward their target population? How s...

  4. Locus of control, self-efficacy, and the mediating effect of outcome control: predicting course-level and global outcomes in an academic context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Au, Evelyn W M

    2015-01-01

    The current study utilizes Skinner's framework to examine the unique contributions of internal locus of control, self-efficacy, and perceived outcome control over course performance on students' academic experiences. Undergraduate students (N = 225) took part in a longitudinal study and completed two surveys (Time 1: just before their mid-term exams; Time 2: just before their final exam in the same semester). Both locus of control and self-efficacy at Time 1 predicted course-level perceived control over course performance at Time 2. Student-level perceived control over course performance at Time 2 mediated the relationship between self-efficacy at Time 1 and course-level perseverance, course-specific stress, and course enjoyment at Time 2. For global perceived stress and life satisfaction measured at Time 2, both locus of control and self-efficacy at Time 1 had only a direct effect on global perceived stress at Time 2, but only self-efficacy at Time 1 predicted life satisfaction at Time 2. Both locus of control and self-efficacy uniquely contribute to students' academic experiences. Student-level perceived control plays an important mediating role between locus of control and self-efficacy at Time 1, and course-level perseverance, course-specific stress, and course enjoyment at Time 2.

  5. Anthropometry and physical activity level in the prediction of metabolic syndrome in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andaki, Alynne Christian Ribeiro; Tinôco, Adelson Luiz Araújo; Mendes, Edmar Lacerda; Andaki Júnior, Roberto; Hills, Andrew P; Amorim, Paulo Roberto S

    2014-10-01

    To evaluate the effectiveness of anthropometric measures and physical activity level in the prediction of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in children. Cross-sectional study with children from public and private schools. Children underwent an anthropometric assessment, blood pressure measurement and biochemical evaluation of serum for determination of TAG, HDL-cholesterol and glucose. Physical activity level was calculated and number of steps per day obtained using a pedometer for seven consecutive days. Viçosa, south-eastern Brazil. Boys and girls (n 187), mean age 9·90 (SD 0·7) years. Conicity index, sum of four skinfolds, physical activity level and number of steps per day were accurate in predicting MetS in boys. Anthropometric indicators were accurate in predicting MetS for girls, specifically BMI, waist circumference measured at the narrowest point and at the level of the umbilicus, four skinfold thickness measures evaluated separately, the sum of subscapular and triceps skinfold thickness, the sum of four skinfolds and body fat percentage. The sum of four skinfolds was the most accurate method in predicting MetS in both genders.

  6. Science with Synthetic Stellar Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, Robyn Ellyn

    2018-04-01

    A new generation of observational projects is poised to revolutionize our understanding of the resolved stellar populations of Milky-Way-like galaxies at an unprecedented level of detail, ushering in an era of precision studies of galaxy formation. In the Milky Way itself, astrometric, spectroscopic and photometric surveys will measure three-dimensional positions and velocities and numerous chemical abundances for stars from the disk to the halo, as well as for many satellite dwarf galaxies. In the Local Group and beyond, HST, JWST and eventually WFIRST will deliver pristine views of resolved stars. The groundbreaking scale and dimensionality of this new view of resolved stellar populations in galaxies challenge us to develop new theoretical tools to robustly compare these surveys to simulated galaxies, in order to take full advantage of our new ability to make detailed predictions for stellar populations within a cosmological context. I will describe a framework for generating realistic synthetic star catalogs and mock surveys from state-of-the-art cosmological-hydrodynamical simulations, and present several early scientific results from, and predictions for, resolved stellar surveys of our Galaxy and its neighbors.

  7. Results of the CRCPD survey of 1984 low-level radioactive waste: progress to mid-September, 1986

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devine, T.L.

    1987-01-01

    The survey of 1984 low-level radioactive waste by the Conference of Radiation Control Program Directors, Inc., is the second such survey. The previous survey was for waste generated during 1982. The CRCPD survey of 1984 LLRW requested information concerning the license, the effluents and other on-site managed wastes, details of exported waste type, the capacity for storing waste prior to shipment and its average utilization during 1984. Details of the exported waste included waste type, processing and packaging, NRC class, burial site or broker to which the waste was sent, and anticipated waste generation by year and by class through 1989. Shortcomings of the questionnaire and preliminary results are discussed. Based on the results of the two surveys of low-level radioactive waste conducted by the CRCPD, and the serious discrepancies which exist between data on waste shipped by generators and that on waste received by disposal sites, the following recommendation is made. That a single, national repository be established for all data on the generation and ultimate disposition of low-level radioactive waste. 1 figure, 1 table

  8. The contribution of former work-related activity levels to predict physical activity and sedentary time during early retirement: moderating role of educational level and physical functioning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delfien Van Dyck

    Full Text Available The transition to retirement introduces a decline in total physical activity and an increase in TV viewing time. Nonetheless, as more time becomes available, early retirement is an ideal stage to implement health interventions. Therefore, knowledge on specific determinants of physical activity and sedentary time is needed. Former work-related physical activity has been proposed as a potential determinant, but concrete evidence is lacking. The aim of this study was to examine if former work-related sitting, standing, walking or vigorous activities predict physical activity and sedentary time during early retirement. Additionally, moderating effects of educational level and physical functioning were examined.In total, 392 recently retired Belgian adults (>6 months, <5 years completed the International Physical Activity Questionnaire, the SF-36 Health Survey and a questionnaire on sociodemographics and former work-related activities. Generalized linear regression analyses were conducted in R. Moderating effects were examined by adding cross-products to the models.More former work-related sitting was predictive of more screen time during retirement. Lower levels of former work-related vigorous activities and higher levels of former work-related walking were associated with respectively more cycling for transport and more walking for transport during retirement. None of the predictors significantly explained passive transportation, cycling and walking for recreation, and leisure-time moderate-to-vigorous physical activity during retirement. Several moderating effects were found, but the direction of the interactions was not univocal.Former-work related behaviors are of limited importance to explain physical activity during early retirement, so future studies should focus on other individual, social and environmental determinants. Nonetheless, adults who previously had a sedentary job had higher levels of screen time during retirement, so this is an

  9. The contribution of former work-related activity levels to predict physical activity and sedentary time during early retirement: moderating role of educational level and physical functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dyck, Delfien; Cardon, Greet; Deforche, Benedicte; De Bourdeaudhuij, Ilse

    2015-01-01

    The transition to retirement introduces a decline in total physical activity and an increase in TV viewing time. Nonetheless, as more time becomes available, early retirement is an ideal stage to implement health interventions. Therefore, knowledge on specific determinants of physical activity and sedentary time is needed. Former work-related physical activity has been proposed as a potential determinant, but concrete evidence is lacking. The aim of this study was to examine if former work-related sitting, standing, walking or vigorous activities predict physical activity and sedentary time during early retirement. Additionally, moderating effects of educational level and physical functioning were examined. In total, 392 recently retired Belgian adults (>6 months, Physical Activity Questionnaire, the SF-36 Health Survey and a questionnaire on sociodemographics and former work-related activities. Generalized linear regression analyses were conducted in R. Moderating effects were examined by adding cross-products to the models. More former work-related sitting was predictive of more screen time during retirement. Lower levels of former work-related vigorous activities and higher levels of former work-related walking were associated with respectively more cycling for transport and more walking for transport during retirement. None of the predictors significantly explained passive transportation, cycling and walking for recreation, and leisure-time moderate-to-vigorous physical activity during retirement. Several moderating effects were found, but the direction of the interactions was not univocal. Former-work related behaviors are of limited importance to explain physical activity during early retirement, so future studies should focus on other individual, social and environmental determinants. Nonetheless, adults who previously had a sedentary job had higher levels of screen time during retirement, so this is an important subgroup to focus on during interventions

  10. Semi-analytic models for the CANDELS survey: comparison of predictions for intrinsic galaxy properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Yu; Wechsler, Risa H.; Somerville, Rachel S.; Croton, Darren; Porter, Lauren; Primack, Joel; Moody, Chris; Behroozi, Peter S.; Ferguson, Henry C.; Koo, David C.; Guo, Yicheng; Safarzadeh, Mohammadtaher; White, Catherine E.; Finlator, Kristian; Castellano, Marco; Sommariva, Veronica

    2014-01-01

    We compare the predictions of three independently developed semi-analytic galaxy formation models (SAMs) that are being used to aid in the interpretation of results from the CANDELS survey. These models are each applied to the same set of halo merger trees extracted from the 'Bolshoi' high-resolution cosmological N-body simulation and are carefully tuned to match the local galaxy stellar mass function using the powerful method of Bayesian Inference coupled with Markov Chain Monte Carlo or by hand. The comparisons reveal that in spite of the significantly different parameterizations for star formation and feedback processes, the three models yield qualitatively similar predictions for the assembly histories of galaxy stellar mass and star formation over cosmic time. Comparing SAM predictions with existing estimates of the stellar mass function from z = 0-8, we show that the SAMs generally require strong outflows to suppress star formation in low-mass halos to match the present-day stellar mass function, as is the present common wisdom. However, all of the models considered produce predictions for the star formation rates (SFRs) and metallicities of low-mass galaxies that are inconsistent with existing data. The predictions for metallicity-stellar mass relations and their evolution clearly diverge between the models. We suggest that large differences in the metallicity relations and small differences in the stellar mass assembly histories of model galaxies stem from different assumptions for the outflow mass-loading factor produced by feedback. Importantly, while more accurate observational measurements for stellar mass, SFR and metallicity of galaxies at 1 < z < 5 will discriminate between models, the discrepancies between the constrained models and existing data of these observables have already revealed challenging problems in understanding star formation and its feedback in galaxy formation. The three sets of models are being used to construct catalogs

  11. Semi-analytic models for the CANDELS survey: comparison of predictions for intrinsic galaxy properties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Yu; Wechsler, Risa H. [Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology, Physics Department, and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Somerville, Rachel S. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Rutgers University, 136 Frelinghuysen Road, Piscataway, NJ 08854 (United States); Croton, Darren [Centre for Astrophysics and Supercomputing, Swinburne University of Technology, P.O. Box 218, Hawthorn, VIC 3122 (Australia); Porter, Lauren; Primack, Joel; Moody, Chris [Department of Physics, University of California at Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Behroozi, Peter S.; Ferguson, Henry C. [Space Telescope Science Institute, 3700 San Martin Drive, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Koo, David C.; Guo, Yicheng [UCO/Lick Observatory, Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Safarzadeh, Mohammadtaher; White, Catherine E. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, The Johns Hopkins University, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Finlator, Kristian [Dark Cosmology Centre, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, DK-2100 Copenhagen (Denmark); Castellano, Marco; Sommariva, Veronica, E-mail: luyu@stanford.edu, E-mail: rwechsler@stanford.edu [INAF-Osservatorio Astronomico di Roma, via Frascati 33, I-00040 Monteporzio (Italy)

    2014-11-10

    We compare the predictions of three independently developed semi-analytic galaxy formation models (SAMs) that are being used to aid in the interpretation of results from the CANDELS survey. These models are each applied to the same set of halo merger trees extracted from the 'Bolshoi' high-resolution cosmological N-body simulation and are carefully tuned to match the local galaxy stellar mass function using the powerful method of Bayesian Inference coupled with Markov Chain Monte Carlo or by hand. The comparisons reveal that in spite of the significantly different parameterizations for star formation and feedback processes, the three models yield qualitatively similar predictions for the assembly histories of galaxy stellar mass and star formation over cosmic time. Comparing SAM predictions with existing estimates of the stellar mass function from z = 0-8, we show that the SAMs generally require strong outflows to suppress star formation in low-mass halos to match the present-day stellar mass function, as is the present common wisdom. However, all of the models considered produce predictions for the star formation rates (SFRs) and metallicities of low-mass galaxies that are inconsistent with existing data. The predictions for metallicity-stellar mass relations and their evolution clearly diverge between the models. We suggest that large differences in the metallicity relations and small differences in the stellar mass assembly histories of model galaxies stem from different assumptions for the outflow mass-loading factor produced by feedback. Importantly, while more accurate observational measurements for stellar mass, SFR and metallicity of galaxies at 1 < z < 5 will discriminate between models, the discrepancies between the constrained models and existing data of these observables have already revealed challenging problems in understanding star formation and its feedback in galaxy formation. The three sets of models are being used to construct catalogs

  12. A model predictive controller for the water level of nuclear steam generators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Na, Man Gyun

    2001-01-01

    In this work, the model predictive control method was applied to a linear model and a nonlinear model of steam generators. The parameters of a linear model for steam generators are very different according to the power levels. The model predictive controller was designed for the linear steam generator model at a fixed power level. The proposed controller designed at the fixed power level showed good performance for any other power levels by changing only the input-weighting factor. As the input-weighting factor usually increases, its relative stability does so. The stem generator has some nonlinear characteristics. Therefore, the proposed algorithm has been implemented for a nonlinear model of the nuclear steam generator to verify its real performance and also, showed good performance. (author)

  13. Measuring True Sales and Underreporting with Matched Firm-Level Survey and Tax-Office Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhou, F.; Oostendorp, R.H.

    2014-01-01

    This paper uses firm-level survey data matched with official tax records to estimate the unobserved true sales of formal firms in Mongolia. Taking into account firm-level incentives to comply with taxes and a production function technology linking unobserved true sales with observable firm-level

  14. Theory of mind predicts severity level in autism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoogenhout, Michelle; Malcolm-Smith, Susan

    2017-02-01

    We investigated whether theory of mind skills can indicate autism spectrum disorder severity. In all, 62 children with autism spectrum disorder completed a developmentally sensitive theory of mind battery. We used intelligence quotient, Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed.) diagnosis and level of support needed as indicators of severity level. Using hierarchical cluster analysis, we found three distinct clusters of theory of mind ability: early-developing theory of mind (Cluster 1), false-belief reasoning (Cluster 2) and sophisticated theory of mind understanding (Cluster 3). The clusters corresponded to severe, moderate and mild autism spectrum disorder. As an indicator of level of support needed, cluster grouping predicted the type of school children attended. All Cluster 1 children attended autism-specific schools; Cluster 2 was divided between autism-specific and special needs schools and nearly all Cluster 3 children attended general special needs and mainstream schools. Assessing theory of mind skills can reliably discriminate severity levels within autism spectrum disorder.

  15. Factors predicting quality of work life among nurses in tertiary-level hospitals, Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akter, N; Akkadechanunt, T; Chontawan, R; Klunklin, A

    2018-06-01

    This study examined the level of quality of work life and predictability of years of education, monthly income, years of experience, job stress, organizational commitment and work environment on quality of work life among nurses in tertiary-level hospitals in the People's Republic of Bangladesh. There is an acute shortage of nurses worldwide including Bangladesh. Quality of work life is important for quality of patient care and nurse retention. Nurses in Bangladesh are fighting to provide quality care for emerging health problems for the achievement of sustainable development goals. We collected data from 288 randomly selected registered nurses, from six tertiary-level hospitals. All nurses were requested to fill questionnaire consisted of Demographic Data Sheet, Quality of Nursing Work Life Survey, Expanded Nursing Stress Scale, Questionnaire of Organizational Commitment and Practice Environment Scale of the Nursing Work Index. Data were analysed by descriptive statistics and multiple regression. The quality of work life as perceived by nurses in Bangladesh was at moderate level. Monthly income was found as the best predictor followed by work environment, organizational commitment and job stress. A higher monthly income helps nurses to fulfil their personal needs; positive work environment helps to provide quality care to the patients. Quality of work life and predictors measured by self-report only may not reflect the original picture of the quality of work life among nurses. Findings provide information for nursing and health policymakers to develop policies to improve quality of work life among nurses that can contribute to quality of nursing care. This includes the working environment, commitment to the organization and measures to reduce job stress. © 2017 International Council of Nurses.

  16. Prediction of Neonatal Hyperbilirubinemia Using 1st Day Serum Bilirubin Levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spoorthi, S M; Dandinavar, Siddappa F; Ratageri, Vinod H; Wari, Prakash K

    2018-02-15

    The study was conducted on Full term neonates with birth weight > 2.5 kg born in KIMS, Hubballi with an objective to determine the first day Total Serum Bilirubin (TSB) value so as to predict subsequent development of significant hyperbilirubinemia in term neonates. All enrolled neonates were sampled for TSB and blood group on Day 1 at 20 ± 4 h and then followed up clinically by Kramer's rule and when the clinical jaundice by Kramer's rule was >10 mg/dl, TSB levels were repeated. A total of 180 newborns were enrolled for the study and 165 babies completed the study. Out of these, 17(10.3%) babies had significant hyperbilirubinemia by day 5 of life. Using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve, a cut off TSB value of 6.15 mg/dl was determined with sensitivity of 82.4%, specificity of 81.8%, positive predictive value of 32.8%, negative predictive value 97.6%. In term neonates, the first day total bilirubin level at 20 ± 4 h of life <6.15 predicts the low risk of subsequent significant hyperbilirubinemia with high probability.

  17. A Follow-Up Web-Based Survey: Test and Measurement Expert Opinions on the Psychometric Properties of Out-of-Level Tests. Out-of-Level Testing Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bielinski, John; Minnema, Jane; Thurlow, Martha

    A Web-based survey of 25 experts in testing theory and large-scale assessment examined the utility of out-of-level testing for making decisions about students and schools. Survey respondents were given a series of scenarios and asked to judge the degree to which out-of-level testing would affect the reliability and validity of test scores within…

  18. Mobile Phone Surveys for Collecting Population-Level Estimates in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Literature Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, Dustin G; Pereira, Amanda; Farrenkopf, Brooke A; Labrique, Alain B; Pariyo, George W; Hyder, Adnan A

    2017-05-05

    National and subnational level surveys are important for monitoring disease burden, prioritizing resource allocation, and evaluating public health policies. As mobile phone access and ownership become more common globally, mobile phone surveys (MPSs) offer an opportunity to supplement traditional public health household surveys. The objective of this study was to systematically review the current landscape of MPSs to collect population-level estimates in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Primary and gray literature from 7 online databases were systematically searched for studies that deployed MPSs to collect population-level estimates. Titles and abstracts were screened on primary inclusion and exclusion criteria by two research assistants. Articles that met primary screening requirements were read in full and screened for secondary eligibility criteria. Articles included in review were grouped into the following three categories by their survey modality: (1) interactive voice response (IVR), (2) short message service (SMS), and (3) human operator or computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI). Data were abstracted by two research assistants. The conduct and reporting of the review conformed to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. A total of 6625 articles were identified through the literature review. Overall, 11 articles were identified that contained 19 MPS (CATI, IVR, or SMS) surveys to collect population-level estimates across a range of topics. MPSs were used in Latin America (n=8), the Middle East (n=1), South Asia (n=2), and sub-Saharan Africa (n=8). Nine articles presented results for 10 CATI surveys (10/19, 53%). Two articles discussed the findings of 6 IVR surveys (6/19, 32%). Three SMS surveys were identified from 2 articles (3/19, 16%). Approximately 63% (12/19) of MPS were delivered to mobile phone numbers collected from previously administered household surveys. The majority of MPS (11

  19. A rapid method of predicting radiocaesium concentrations in sheep from activity levels in faeces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGee, E.J.; Synnott, H.J.; Colgan, P.A.; Keatinge, M.J.

    1994-01-01

    The use of faecal samples taken from sheep flocks as a means of predicting radiocaesium concentrations in live animals was studied. Radiocaesium levels in 1726 sheep from 29 flocks were measured using in vivo techniques and a single faecal sample taken from each flock was also analysed. A highly significant relationship was found to exist between mean flock activity and activity in the corresponding faecal samples. Least-square regression yielded a simple model for predicting mean flock radiocaesium concentrations based on activity levels in faecal samples. A similar analysis of flock maxima and activity levels in faeces provides an alternative model for predicting the expected within-flock maximum radiocaesium concentration. (Author)

  20. Does the acceptable noise level (ANL) predict hearing-aid use?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Steen Østergaard; Brännström, K Jonas

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: It has been suggested that individuals have an inherent acceptance of noise in the presence of speech, and that different acceptance of noise results in different hearing-aid (HA) use. The acceptable noise level (ANL) has been proposed for measurement of this property. It has been...... claimed that the ANL magnitude can predict hearing-aid use patterns. Many papers have been published reporting on different aspects of ANL, but none have challenged the predictive power of ANL. The purpose of this study was to discuss whether ANL can predict HA use and how more reliable ANL results can...... reviewed journals as well as a number of papers from trade journals, posters and oral presentations from audiology conventions. CONCLUSIONS: An inherent acceptance of noise in the presence of speech may exist, but no method for precise measurement of ANL is available. The ANL model for prediction of HA use...

  1. Predictive validity of examinations at the Secondary Education Certificate (SEC) level

    OpenAIRE

    Farrugia, Josette; Ventura, Frank

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents the predictive validity of results obtained by 16-year-old Maltese students in the May 2004 Secondary Education Certificate (SEC) examinations in Biology, Chemistry, Physics, Mathematics, Computing, English and Maltese for the Advanced level examinations in these subjects taken by the same students two years later. The study checks whether the SEC level is a good foundation for the higher level, the likelihood of obtaining a high grade at A-level from particular SEC result...

  2. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn

    2018-01-01

    LTSA during follow-up. Results: The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC...... population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between...... employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for new variables, based on the knowledge and experience...

  3. Application of ranging technique of radar level meter for draft survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SHEN Yijun

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available [Objectives] This paper aims to solve the problems of the high subjectivity and low accuracy and efficiency of draft surveying relying on human visual inspection.[Methods] Radar-level oil and liquid measurement technology products are widely used in the petrochemical industry. A device is developed that uses radar to survey the draft of a boat, designed with data series optimization formulae to ensure that the data results are true and correct. At the same time, a test is designed to prove the accuracy of the results.[Results] According to the conditions of the ship,the device is composed of a radar sensor, triangular bracket and display,and is put to use in the test.[Conclusions] With 15 vessels as the research objects,the comparison experiment shows a difference in range between 0.001-0.022 meters, with an average difference rate of 0.028%, which meets the requirements for ship draft survey accuracy.

  4. Survey of stores for conditioned intermediate and low level wastes in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-10-01

    A survey has been conducted of eleven waste storage facilities in six countries. Wastes considered are intermediate and low level, conditioned for disposal. Civil engineering, handling facilities, container type, waste activities, doses to the public and to operators are considered. (author)

  5. Customer satisfaction survey with clinical laboratory and phlebotomy services at a tertiary care unit level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koh, Young Rae; Kim, Shine Young; Kim, In Suk; Chang, Chulhun L; Lee, Eun Yup; Son, Han Chul; Kim, Hyung Hoi

    2014-09-01

    We performed customer satisfaction surveys for physicians and nurses regarding clinical laboratory services, and for outpatients who used phlebotomy services at a tertiary care unit level to evaluate our clinical laboratory and phlebotomy services. Thus, we wish to share our experiences with the customer satisfaction survey for clinical laboratory and phlebotomy services. Board members of our laboratory designed a study procedure and study population, and developed two types of questionnaire. A satisfaction survey for clinical laboratory services was conducted with 370 physicians and 125 nurses by using an online or paper questionnaire. The satisfaction survey for phlebotomy services was performed with 347 outpatients who received phlebotomy services by using computer-aided interviews. Mean satisfaction scores of physicians and nurses was 58.1, while outpatients' satisfaction score was 70.5. We identified several dissatisfactions with our clinical laboratory and phlebotomy services. First, physicians and nurses were most dissatisfied with the specimen collection and delivery process. Second, physicians and nurses were dissatisfied with phlebotomy services. Third, molecular genetic and cytogenetic tests were found more expensive than other tests. This study is significant in that it describes the first reference survey that offers a survey procedure and questionnaire to assess customer satisfaction with clinical laboratory and phlebotomy services at a tertiary care unit level.

  6. Serum Creatinine Versus Plasma Methotrexate Levels to Predict Toxicities in Children Receiving High-dose Methotrexate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, Priya; Thomas, M K; Pathania, Subha; Dhawan, Deepa; Gupta, Y K; Vishnubhatla, Sreenivas; Bakhshi, Sameer

    2015-01-01

    Facilities for measuring methotrexate (MTX) levels are not available everywhere, potentially limiting administration of high-dose methotrexate (HDMTX). We hypothesized that serum creatinine alteration after HDMTX administration predicts MTX clearance. Overall, 122 cycles in 50 patients of non-Hodgkin lymphoma or acute lymphoblastic leukemia aged ≤18 years receiving HDMTX were enrolled prospectively. Plasma MTX levels were measured at 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 hours; serum creatinine was measured at baseline, 24, 48, and 72 hours. Correlation of plasma MTX levels with creatinine levels and changes in creatinine from baseline (Δ creatinine) were evaluated. Plasma MTX levels at 72 hours showed positive correlation with serum creatinine at 48 hours (P = .011) and 72 hours (P = .013) as also Δ creatinine at 48 hours (P = .042) and 72 hours (P = .045). However, cut-off value of either creatinine or Δ creatinine could not be established to reliably predict delayed MTX clearance. Greater than 50% Δ creatinine at 48 and 72 hours significantly predicted grade 3/4 leucopenia (P = .036 and P = .001, respectively) and thrombocytopenia (P = .012 and P = .009, respectively) but not mucositis (P = .827 and P = .910, respectively). Delayed MTX elimination did not predict any grade 3/4 toxicity. In spite of demonstration of significant correlation between serum creatinine and Δ creatinine with plasma MTX levels at 72 hours, cut-off value of either variable to predict MTX delay could not be established. Thus, either of these cannot be used as a surrogate for plasma MTX estimation. Interestingly, Δ creatinine effectively predicted hematological toxicities, which were not predicted by delayed MTX clearance.

  7. MCNP Techniques for Modeling Sodium Iodide Spectra of Kiwi Surveys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robert B Hayes

    2007-01-01

    This work demonstrates how MCNP can be used to predict the response of mobile search and survey equipment from base principles. The instrumentation evaluated comes from the U.S. Department of Energy's Aerial Measurement Systems. Through reconstructing detector responses to various point-source measurements, detector responses to distributed sources can be estimated through superposition. Use of this methodology for currently deployed systems allows predictive determinations of activity levels and distributions for common configurations of interest. This work helps determine the quality and efficacy of certain surveys in fully characterizing an effected site following a radiological event of national interest

  8. Stronger pack warnings predict quitting more than weaker ones: finding from the ITC Malaysia and Thailand surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fathelrahman, Ahmed I; Li, Lin; Borland, Ron; Yong, Hua-Hie; Omar, Maizurah; Awang, Rahmat; Sirirassamee, Buppha; Fong, Geoffrey T; Hammond, David

    2013-09-18

    We examined the impact of cigarette pack warning labels on interest in quitting and subsequent quit attempts among adult smokers in Malaysia and Thailand. Two overlapping cohorts of adults who reported smoking factory- made cigarettes from Malaysia and Thailand were interviewed face-to-face (3189 were surveyed at baseline and 1781 re-contacted at Wave 2; 2361 current smokers were surveyed at Wave 2 and 1586 re-contacted at Wave 3). In Thailand at baseline, large text only warnings were assessed, while at Wave 2 new large graphic warnings were assessed. In Malaysia, during both waves small text only warnings were in effect. Reactions were used to predict interest in quitting, and to predict making quit attempts over the following inter-wave interval. Multivariate predictors of "interest in quitting" were comparable across countries, but predictors of quit attempts varied. In both countries, cognitive reactions to warnings (adjusted ORs; 1.57 & 1.69 for Malaysia at wave 1 and wave 2 respectively and 1.29 & 1.19 for Thailand at wave 1 and wave 2 respectively), forgoing a cigarette (except Wave 2 in Malaysia) (adjusted ORs; 1.77 for Malaysia at wave 1 and 1.54 & 2.32 for Thailand at wave 1 and wave 2 respectively), and baseline knowledge (except wave 2 in both countries) (adjusted ORs; 1.71 & 1.51 for Malaysia and Thailand respectively) were positively associated with interest in quitting at that wave. In Thailand only, "cognitive reactions to warnings" (adjusted ORs; 1.12 & 1.23 at wave 1 and wave 2 respectively), "forgoing a cigarette" (adjusted OR = 1.55 at wave 2 only) and "an interest in quitting" (adjusted ORs; 1.61 & 2.85 at wave 1 and wave 2 respectively) were positively associated with quit attempts over the following inter-wave interval. Salience was negatively associated with subsequent quit attempts in both Malaysia and Thailand, but at Wave 2 only (adjusted ORs; 0.89 & 0.88 for Malaysia and Thailand respectively). Warnings appear to have common

  9. A noise level prediction method based on electro-mechanical frequency response function for capacitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Lingyu; Ji, Shengchang; Shen, Qi; Liu, Yuan; Li, Jinyu; Liu, Hao

    2013-01-01

    The capacitors in high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) converter stations radiate a lot of audible noise which can reach higher than 100 dB. The existing noise level prediction methods are not satisfying enough. In this paper, a new noise level prediction method is proposed based on a frequency response function considering both electrical and mechanical characteristics of capacitors. The electro-mechanical frequency response function (EMFRF) is defined as the frequency domain quotient of the vibration response and the squared capacitor voltage, and it is obtained from impulse current experiment. Under given excitations, the vibration response of the capacitor tank is the product of EMFRF and the square of the given capacitor voltage in frequency domain, and the radiated audible noise is calculated by structure acoustic coupling formulas. The noise level under the same excitations is also measured in laboratory, and the results are compared with the prediction. The comparison proves that the noise prediction method is effective.

  10. Nationwide survey of radon levels in indoor workplaces in Mexico using Nuclear Track Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Espinosa, G.; Golzarri, J.I.; Angeles, A.; Griffith, R.V.

    2009-01-01

    This report presents the preliminary results of an indoor workplace radon survey conducted during 2006-2007. Monitoring was carried out in 24 of the 32 federal entities of Mexico, incorporating 26 cities and 288 locations. The area monitored was divided into 8 regions for the purposes of the study: Chihuahua (a state with uranium mines), North-Central, South-Central, Southeast, South, Northeast, Northwest, and West. These regions differ in terms of geographic and geological characteristics, climate, altitude, and building materials and architectonic styles. Nuclear Track Methodology (NTM) was employed for the survey, using a passive closed-end cup device with Poly Allyl Diglycol Carbonate (PADC), known by its trade name CR-39 (Lantrack), as detector material. Well-established protocols for making continuous indoor radon measurements were followed, including one-step chemical etching in a 6.25 M KOH solution at 60 ± 1 deg. C with an etching time of 18 h. The track densities were determined with an automatic digital system at the Instituto de Fisica de la Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (IFUNAM) (Physics Institute of the National Autonomous University of Mexico), and calibrated in facilities at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The importance of this survey lies in the fact that it represents the first time a nationwide survey of radon levels in indoor workplaces has been carried out in Mexico. Mean indoor radon levels from continuous measurements taken during and after working hours ranged from 13 Bq m -3 (the lower limit of detection) to 196 Bq m -3 . Analogous official controls or regulations for radon levels in indoor workplaces do not exist in Mexico. The survey described here contributes to knowledge of the natural radiological environment in workplaces, and will aid the relevant authorities in establishing appropriate regulations. The survey was made possible by the efforts of both a private institutions and the Dosimeter Application Project

  11. Survey of agents and techniques applicable to the solidification of low-level radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuhrmann, M.; Neilson, R.M. Jr.; Colombo, P.

    1981-12-01

    A review of the various solidification agents and techniques that are currently available or potentially applicable for the solidification of low-level radioactive wastes is presented. An overview of the types and quantities of low-level wastes produced is presented. Descriptions of waste form matrix materials, the wastes types for which they have been or may be applied and available information concerning relevant waste form properties and characteristics follow. Also included are descriptions of the processing techniques themselves with an emphasis on those operating parameters which impact upon waste form properties. The solidification agents considered in this survey include: hydraulic cements, thermoplastic materials, thermosetting polymers, glasses, synthetic minerals and composite materials. This survey is part of a program supported by the United States Department of Energy's Low-Level Waste Management Program (LLWMP). This work provides input into LLWMP efforts to develop and compile information relevant to the treatment and processing of low-level wastes and their disposal by shallow land burial

  12. Survey of agents and techniques applicable to the solidification of low-level radioactive wastes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuhrmann, M.; Neilson, R.M. Jr.; Colombo, P.

    1981-12-01

    A review of the various solidification agents and techniques that are currently available or potentially applicable for the solidification of low-level radioactive wastes is presented. An overview of the types and quantities of low-level wastes produced is presented. Descriptions of waste form matrix materials, the wastes types for which they have been or may be applied and available information concerning relevant waste form properties and characteristics follow. Also included are descriptions of the processing techniques themselves with an emphasis on those operating parameters which impact upon waste form properties. The solidification agents considered in this survey include: hydraulic cements, thermoplastic materials, thermosetting polymers, glasses, synthetic minerals and composite materials. This survey is part of a program supported by the United States Department of Energy's Low-Level Waste Management Program (LLWMP). This work provides input into LLWMP efforts to develop and compile information relevant to the treatment and processing of low-level wastes and their disposal by shallow land burial.

  13. Background carbon-14 levels in UK foodstuffs, 1981-1995, based upon a 1992 survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otlet, R.L.; Walker, A.J.; Fulker, M.J.; Collins, C.

    1997-01-01

    Knowledge of the current 'natural' background level is important to 14 C-related studies, especially dose assessments in the vicinity of and distant from nuclear establishments since its value must be subtracted from measured levels to determine local enhancement. Although measurements have been made world-wide to monitor the decline of the background level, from its peak in the early 1960s to the present, there exists a paucity of precise data for UK natural materials. Accordingly this study was carried out to establish an average figure for the 'natural' 14 C level in foodstuffs in 1992 from a survey of materials collected from a wide range of sites over England and Wales, using this single year value, to infill missing years prior to 1992 and to extrapolate from some years afterwards. Results are presented from the survey, and for the derived extrapolation with comparison made with measurements from other laboratories. (Author)

  14. An economic prediction of the finer resolution level wavelet coefficients in electronic structure calculations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagy, Szilvia; Pipek, János

    2015-12-21

    In wavelet based electronic structure calculations, introducing a new, finer resolution level is usually an expensive task, this is why often a two-level approximation is used with very fine starting resolution level. This process results in large matrices to calculate with and a large number of coefficients to be stored. In our previous work we have developed an adaptively refined solution scheme that determines the indices, where the refined basis functions are to be included, and later a method for predicting the next, finer resolution coefficients in a very economic way. In the present contribution, we would like to determine whether the method can be applied for predicting not only the first, but also the other, higher resolution level coefficients. Also the energy expectation values of the predicted wave functions are studied, as well as the scaling behaviour of the coefficients in the fine resolution limit.

  15. Characterization of leveling problems of Patagonia gamma-ray spectrometry survey, Chubut province (Argentina)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, Kenneth L.; Lopez, Luis E.

    1998-01-01

    Measuring the radioelement concentrations of the soils along traverses perpendicular to the flight line direction was performed in order to gather useful information in support of the leveling of the airborne gamma-ray spectrometer survey of Patagonia. Two sites were selected as test areas which ground and airborne spectrometric data were systematically compared to asses the nature of the leveling problems. It is suspected that variations in soil moisture may play a significant roll in the leveling variations. (author)

  16. Predicting multi-level drug response with gene expression profile in multiple myeloma using hierarchical ordinal regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xinyan; Li, Bingzong; Han, Huiying; Song, Sha; Xu, Hongxia; Hong, Yating; Yi, Nengjun; Zhuang, Wenzhuo

    2018-05-10

    Multiple myeloma (MM), like other cancers, is caused by the accumulation of genetic abnormalities. Heterogeneity exists in the patients' response to treatments, for example, bortezomib. This urges efforts to identify biomarkers from numerous molecular features and build predictive models for identifying patients that can benefit from a certain treatment scheme. However, previous studies treated the multi-level ordinal drug response as a binary response where only responsive and non-responsive groups are considered. It is desirable to directly analyze the multi-level drug response, rather than combining the response to two groups. In this study, we present a novel method to identify significantly associated biomarkers and then develop ordinal genomic classifier using the hierarchical ordinal logistic model. The proposed hierarchical ordinal logistic model employs the heavy-tailed Cauchy prior on the coefficients and is fitted by an efficient quasi-Newton algorithm. We apply our hierarchical ordinal regression approach to analyze two publicly available datasets for MM with five-level drug response and numerous gene expression measures. Our results show that our method is able to identify genes associated with the multi-level drug response and to generate powerful predictive models for predicting the multi-level response. The proposed method allows us to jointly fit numerous correlated predictors and thus build efficient models for predicting the multi-level drug response. The predictive model for the multi-level drug response can be more informative than the previous approaches. Thus, the proposed approach provides a powerful tool for predicting multi-level drug response and has important impact on cancer studies.

  17. Radon levels in underground workplaces – results of a nationwide survey in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trevisi, Rosabianca; Orlando, Claudia; Orlando, Paolo; Amici, Mario; Simeoni, Carla

    2012-01-01

    In Italy an extensive survey has been carried out with the aim to evaluate annual average radon concentration in underground workplaces. The survey covered 933 underground rooms located in 311 bank workplaces spread throughout in all Italian regions; at this scope the sampling was stratified random in order to be representative on national scale. The annual radon concentration was estimated by using passive radon dosemeters (NRPB/SSI type holder and CR-39 as detector): the devices were exposed for a period of about 3 months and 4 cycles were performed to cover a solar year. The radon levels in underground workplaces ranged from 27 to 4851 Bq/m 3 with an overall mean value of 153 Bq/m 3 . As expected, radon distribution is not uniform throughout Italy: in several regions high radon annual averages have been found, confirming previous surveys. The analysis of data shows a high variability among regions and intra-region but low spread among rooms belonging to the same workplace. About 5% of underground workplaces displayed radon concentration exceeding 400 Bq/m 3 , and the 4.4% exceeds 500 Bq/m 3 , the national action level for the exposure to natural radioactivity in workplaces.

  18. Comments on a letter by George D. DeBuchananne (US Geological Survey) regarding the use of salt domes for high-level waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-08-01

    The US Geological Survey (USGS) concluded in a letter to the US Department of Energy, dated March 7, 1981, that subsurface geologic conditions in bedded salt are more predictable and less complex than those in domal salt. This predictability is equated with the relative suitability of bedded and domal salt as repository host media. This report comments on the USGS letter. The key points made are as follows: Complexities which may exist in the geologic setting of a salt dome (or other potential host medium) should not a priori preclude the dome from being an acceptable host medium for a high-level waste (HLW) repository. Predictability, as used by the USGS, focused on the spatial extrapolation of information on geologic conditions and should not be confused with predicting the performance of a repository. Notwithstanding the general characteristics of bedded and domal salt, there are salt domes whose individual characteristics should make them as acceptable as potential bedded salt areas for HLW repository sites. Complexities which may occur in the geologic setting of a salt dome can be explored and characterized with sufficient accuracy by available techniques

  19. Temporal changes in predicted risk of type 2 diabetes in Germany: findings from the German Health Interview and Examination Surveys 1997-1999 and 2008-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paprott, Rebecca; Mensink, Gert B M; Schulze, Matthias B; Thiele, Silke; Mühlenbruch, Kristin; Scheidt-Nave, Christa; Heidemann, Christin

    2017-07-09

    Over time, prevalence changes in individual diabetes risk factors have been observed for Germany and other European countries. We aimed to investigate the temporal change of a summary measure of type 2 diabetes risk in Germany. Comparison of data from two cross-sectional surveys that are about 12 years apart. Two nationwide health examination surveys representative for the non-institutionalised population aged 18-79 years in Germany. The study included participants without diagnosed diabetes from the national health examination surveys in 1997-1999 (n=6457) and 2008-2011 (n=6095). Predicted 5-year type 2 diabetes risk was calculated using the German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS), which considers information on age, anthropometry, lifestyle factors, hypertension and family history of diabetes. Between the two survey periods, the overall age- and sex-standardised predicted 5-year risk of type 2 diabetes decreased by 27% from 1.5% (95% CI 1.4% to 1.6%) to 1.1% (1.0% to 1.2%). The decrease in red meat intake and waist circumference had the highest impact on the overall decrease in diabetes risk. In stratified analyses, diabetes risk decreased among both sexes and within strata of age and body mass index. Diabetes risk also decreased among highly educated persons, but remained unchanged among persons with a middle or low educational level. Monitoring type 2 diabetes risk by a summary measure such as the GDRS could essentially contribute to interpret the dynamics in diabetes epidemiology. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  20. Churn prediction based on text mining and CRM data analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Schatzmann, Anders; Heitz, Christoph; Münch, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Within quantitative marketing, churn prediction on a single customer level has become a major issue. An extensive body of literature shows that, today, churn prediction is mainly based on structured CRM data. However, in the past years, more and more digitized customer text data has become available, originating from emails, surveys or scripts of phone calls. To date, this data source remains vastly untapped for churn prediction, and corresponding methods are rarely described in literature. ...

  1. Indicators to examine quality of large scale survey data: an example through district level household and facility survey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kakoli Borkotoky

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Large scale surveys are the main source of data pertaining to all the social and demographic indicators, hence its quality is also of great concern. In this paper, we discuss the indicators used to examine the quality of data. We focus on age misreporting, incompleteness and inconsistency of information; and skipping of questions on reproductive and sexual health related issues. In order to observe the practical consequences of errors in a survey; the District Level Household and Facility Survey (DLHS-3 is used as an example dataset. METHODS: Whipple's and Myer's indices are used to identify age misreporting. Age displacements are identified by estimating downward and upward transfers for women from bordering age groups of the eligible age range. Skipping pattern is examined by recording the responses to the questions which precede the sections on birth history, immunization, and reproductive and sexual health. RESULTS: The study observed errors in age reporting, in all the states, but the extent of misreporting differs by state and individual characteristics. Illiteracy, rural residence and poor economic condition are the major factors that lead to age misreporting. Female were excluded from the eligible age group, to reduce the duration of interview. The study further observed that respondents tend to skip questions on HIV/RTI and other questions which follow a set of questions. CONCLUSION: The study concludes that age misreporting, inconsistency and incomplete response are three sources of error that need to be considered carefully before drawing conclusions from any survey. DLHS-3 also suffers from age misreporting, particularly for female in the reproductive ages. In view of the coverage of the survey, it may not be possible to control age misreporting completely, but some extra effort to probe a better answer may help in improving the quality of data in the survey.

  2. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelen, Corne; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn; Twisk, Jos; Bultmann, Ute; Bjorner, Jakob

    2018-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Materials and methods: Based on the literature, 15 predictor

  3. PREDICTING INDIVIDUAL WELL-BEING THROUGH THE LANGUAGE OF SOCIAL MEDIA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, H Andrew; Sap, Maarten; Kern, Margaret L; Eichstaedt, Johannes C; Kapelner, Adam; Agrawal, Megha; Blanco, Eduardo; Dziurzynski, Lukasz; Park, Gregory; Stillwell, David; Kosinski, Michal; Seligman, Martin E P; Ungar, Lyle H

    2016-01-01

    We present the task of predicting individual well-being, as measured by a life satisfaction scale, through the language people use on social media. Well-being, which encompasses much more than emotion and mood, is linked with good mental and physical health. The ability to quickly and accurately assess it can supplement multi-million dollar national surveys as well as promote whole body health. Through crowd-sourced ratings of tweets and Facebook status updates, we create message-level predictive models for multiple components of well-being. However, well-being is ultimately attributed to people, so we perform an additional evaluation at the user-level, finding that a multi-level cascaded model, using both message-level predictions and userlevel features, performs best and outperforms popular lexicon-based happiness models. Finally, we suggest that analyses of language go beyond prediction by identifying the language that characterizes well-being.

  4. RLV-TD Flight Measured Aeroacoustic Levels and its Comparison with Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manokaran, K.; Prasath, M.; Venkata Subrahmanyam, B.; Ganesan, V. R.; Ravindran, Archana; Babu, C.

    2017-12-01

    The Reusable Launch Vehicle-Technology Demonstrator (RLV-TD) is a wing body configuration successfully flight tested. One of the important flight measurements is the acoustic levels. There were five external microphones, mounted on the fuselage-forebody, wing, vertical tail, inter-stage (ITS) and core base shroud to measure the acoustic levels from lift-off to splash down. In the ascent phase, core base shroud recorded the overall maximum at both lift-off and transonic conditions. In-flight noise levels measured on the wing is second highest, followed by fuselage and vertical tail. Predictions for flight trajectory compare well at all locations except for vertical tail (4.5 dB). In the descent phase, maximum measured OASPL occurs at transonic condition for the wing, followed by vertical tail and fuselage. Predictions for flight trajectory compare well at all locations except for wing (- 6.0 dB). Spectrum comparison is good in the ascent phase compared to descent phase. Roll Reaction control system (RCS) thruster firing signature is seen in the acoustic measurements on the wing and vertical tail during lift-off.

  5. Using pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling as a tool for prediction of therapeutic effective plasma levels of antipsychotics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Christina Kurre; Brennum, Lise Tøttrup; Kreilgaard, Mads

    2008-01-01

    response behaviour correlates well with the relationship between human dopamine D2 receptor occupancy and clinical effect. The aim of the present study was to evaluate how pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) predictions of therapeutic effective steady-state plasma levels by means of conditioned...... the rat dopamine D2 receptor occupancy levels providing 50% response in the conditioned avoidance response test and the dopamine D2 receptor occupancy levels reported from responding schizophrenic patients treated with antipsychotics. Predictions of therapeutically effective steady-state levels...... for sertindole (+dehydrosertindole) and olanzapine were 3-4-fold too high whereas for haloperidol, clozapine and risperidone the predicted steady-state EC50 in conditioned avoidance responding rats correlated well with the therapeutically effective plasma levels observed in patients. Accordingly, the proposed PK...

  6. Temporal changes in predicted risk of type 2 diabetes in Germany: findings from the German Health Interview and Examination Surveys 1997–1999 and 2008–2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paprott, Rebecca; Mensink, Gert B M; Schulze, Matthias B; Thiele, Silke; Mühlenbruch, Kristin; Scheidt-Nave, Christa; Heidemann, Christin

    2017-01-01

    Objective Over time, prevalence changes in individual diabetes risk factors have been observed for Germany and other European countries. We aimed to investigate the temporal change of a summary measure of type 2 diabetes risk in Germany. Design Comparison of data from two cross-sectional surveys that are about 12 years apart. Setting Two nationwide health examination surveys representative for the non-institutionalised population aged 18–79 years in Germany. Participants The study included participants without diagnosed diabetes from the national health examination surveys in 1997–1999 (n=6457) and 2008–2011 (n=6095). Outcome measures Predicted 5-year type 2 diabetes risk was calculated using the German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS), which considers information on age, anthropometry, lifestyle factors, hypertension and family history of diabetes. Results Between the two survey periods, the overall age- and sex-standardised predicted 5-year risk of type 2 diabetes decreased by 27% from 1.5% (95% CI 1.4% to 1.6%) to 1.1% (1.0% to 1.2%). The decrease in red meat intake and waist circumference had the highest impact on the overall decrease in diabetes risk. In stratified analyses, diabetes risk decreased among both sexes and within strata of age and body mass index. Diabetes risk also decreased among highly educated persons, but remained unchanged among persons with a middle or low educational level. Conclusions Monitoring type 2 diabetes risk by a summary measure such as the GDRS could essentially contribute to interpret the dynamics in diabetes epidemiology. PMID:28694339

  7. Frameworks to monitor and predict resource usage in the ATLAS High Level Trigger

    CERN Document Server

    Martin, Tim; The ATLAS collaboration

    2016-01-01

    The ATLAS High Level Trigger Farm consists of around 30,000 CPU cores which filter events at up to 100 kHz input rate. A costing framework is built into the high level trigger, this enables detailed monitoring of the system and allows for data-driven predictions to be made utilising specialist datasets. This talk will present an overview of how ATLAS collects in-situ monitoring data on both CPU usage and dataflow over the data-acquisition network during the trigger execution, and how these data are processed to yield both low level monitoring of individual selection-algorithms and high level data on the overall performance of the farm. For development and prediction purposes, ATLAS uses a special `Enhanced Bias' event selection. This mechanism will be explained along with how is used to profile expected resource usage and output event-rate of new physics selections, before they are executed on the actual high level trigger farm.

  8. Epidemiological survey of the effects of low level radiation dose: a comparative assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rose, K.S.B.

    1993-10-01

    This volume presents the collations tables of a six volume comparative epidemiological survey of the effects of low level radiation dose. Data are collated for the effects observed in the following irradiated groups:- Preconception irradiation, intra-uterine irradiation, childhood irradiation, adult irradiation. (UK).

  9. Results of survey for assessing awareness level regarding radiological hazards of tobacco smoking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tahir, S. N. A.

    2009-01-01

    Human consumption of tobacco is as old as human history. However, injurious health effects due to tobacco smoking may not be evident to the public at large. This article presents results of a questionnaire based on a survey carried out in the metropolitan city of Lahore of Pakistan with an aim to understand the awareness level of the general population about the radiological hazards associated with tobacco smoking. Some 3600 participants from different educational backgrounds from all segments of the society participated in this survey. Analysis of the data collected concluded that the awareness level of the representative participants regarding the radiological hazards associated with tobacco smoking was alarmingly poor. These results suggest that a nationwide mass media campaign may be launched by the government authorities in Health and Environment departments to enlighten the general public in this respect to avoid tobacco-smoking-associated health risks. (authors)

  10. COPRED: prediction of fold, GO molecular function and functional residues at the domain level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, Daniel; Pazos, Florencio

    2013-07-15

    Only recently the first resources devoted to the functional annotation of proteins at the domain level started to appear. The next step is to develop specific methodologies for predicting function at the domain level based on these resources, and to implement them in web servers to be used by the community. In this work, we present COPRED, a web server for the concomitant prediction of fold, molecular function and functional sites at the domain level, based on a methodology for domain molecular function prediction and a resource of domain functional annotations previously developed and benchmarked. COPRED can be freely accessed at http://csbg.cnb.csic.es/copred. The interface works in all standard web browsers. WebGL (natively supported by most browsers) is required for the in-line preview and manipulation of protein 3D structures. The website includes a detailed help section and usage examples. pazos@cnb.csic.es.

  11. Predicting habitat distribution to conserve seagrass threatened by sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders, M. I.; Baldock, T.; Brown, C. J.; Callaghan, D. P.; Golshani, A.; Hamylton, S.; Hoegh-guldberg, O.; Leon, J. X.; Lovelock, C. E.; Lyons, M. B.; O'Brien, K.; Mumby, P.; Phinn, S. R.; Roelfsema, C. M.

    2013-12-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) over the 21st century will cause significant redistribution of valuable coastal habitats. Seagrasses form extensive and highly productive meadows in shallow coastal seas support high biodiversity, including economically valuable and threatened species. Predictive habitat models can inform local management actions that will be required to conserve seagrass faced with multiple stressors. We developed novel modelling approaches, based on extensive field data sets, to examine the effects of sea level rise and other stressors on two representative seagrass habitats in Australia. First, we modelled interactive effects of SLR, water clarity and adjacent land use on estuarine seagrass meadows in Moreton Bay, Southeast Queensland. The extent of suitable seagrass habitat was predicted to decline by 17% by 2100 due to SLR alone, but losses were predicted to be significantly reduced through improvements in water quality (Fig 1a) and by allowing space for seagrass migration with inundation. The rate of sedimentation in seagrass strongly affected the area of suitable habitat for seagrass in sea level rise scenarios (Fig 1b). Further research to understand spatial, temporal and environmental variability of sediment accretion in seagrass is required. Second, we modelled changes in wave energy distribution due to predicted SLR in a linked coral reef and seagrass ecosystem at Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef. Scenarios where the water depth over the coral reef deepened due to SLR and minimal reef accretion, resulted in larger waves propagating shoreward, changing the existing hydrodynamic conditions sufficiently to reduce area of suitable habitat for seagrass. In a scenario where accretion of the coral reef was severely compromised (e.g. warming, acidification, overfishing), the probability of the presence of seagrass declined significantly. Management to maintain coral health will therefore also benefit seagrasses subject to SLR in reef environments. Further

  12. Predicting in vivo effect levels for repeat-dose systemic toxicity using chemical, biological, kinetic and study covariates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truong, Lisa; Ouedraogo, Gladys; Pham, LyLy; Clouzeau, Jacques; Loisel-Joubert, Sophie; Blanchet, Delphine; Noçairi, Hicham; Setzer, Woodrow; Judson, Richard; Grulke, Chris; Mansouri, Kamel; Martin, Matthew

    2018-02-01

    In an effort to address a major challenge in chemical safety assessment, alternative approaches for characterizing systemic effect levels, a predictive model was developed. Systemic effect levels were curated from ToxRefDB, HESS-DB and COSMOS-DB from numerous study types totaling 4379 in vivo studies for 1247 chemicals. Observed systemic effects in mammalian models are a complex function of chemical dynamics, kinetics, and inter- and intra-individual variability. To address this complex problem, systemic effect levels were modeled at the study-level by leveraging study covariates (e.g., study type, strain, administration route) in addition to multiple descriptor sets, including chemical (ToxPrint, PaDEL, and Physchem), biological (ToxCast), and kinetic descriptors. Using random forest modeling with cross-validation and external validation procedures, study-level covariates alone accounted for approximately 15% of the variance reducing the root mean squared error (RMSE) from 0.96 log 10 to 0.85 log 10  mg/kg/day, providing a baseline performance metric (lower expectation of model performance). A consensus model developed using a combination of study-level covariates, chemical, biological, and kinetic descriptors explained a total of 43% of the variance with an RMSE of 0.69 log 10  mg/kg/day. A benchmark model (upper expectation of model performance) was also developed with an RMSE of 0.5 log 10  mg/kg/day by incorporating study-level covariates and the mean effect level per chemical. To achieve a representative chemical-level prediction, the minimum study-level predicted and observed effect level per chemical were compared reducing the RMSE from 1.0 to 0.73 log 10  mg/kg/day, equivalent to 87% of predictions falling within an order-of-magnitude of the observed value. Although biological descriptors did not improve model performance, the final model was enriched for biological descriptors that indicated xenobiotic metabolism gene expression, oxidative stress, and

  13. Basal blood DHEA-S/cortisol levels predicts EMDR treatment response in adolescents with PTSD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usta, Mirac Baris; Gumus, Yusuf Yasin; Say, Gokce Nur; Bozkurt, Abdullah; Şahin, Berkan; Karabekiroğlu, Koray

    2018-04-01

    In literature, recent evidence has shown that the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis can be dysregulated in patients with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and HPA axis hormones may predict the psychotherapy treatment response in patients with PTSD. In this study, it was aimed to investigate changing cortisol and DHEA-S levels post-eye movement desensitization and reprocessing (EMDR) therapy and the relationship between treatment response and basal cortisol, and DHEA-S levels before treatment. The study group comprised 40 adolescents (age, 12-18 years) with PTSD. The PTSD symptoms were assessed using the Child Depression Inventory (CDI) and Child Post-traumatic Stress Reaction Index (CPSRI) and the blood cortisol and DHEA-S were measured with the chemiluminescence method before and after treatment. A maximum of six sessions of EMDR therapy were conducted by an EMDR level-1 trained child psychiatry resident. Treatment response was measured by the pre- to post-treatment decrease in self-reported and clinical PTSD severity. Pre- and post-treatment DHEA-S and cortisol levels did not show any statistically significant difference. Pre-treatment CDI scores were negatively correlated with pre-treatment DHEA-S levels (r: -0.39). ROC analysis demonstrated that the DHEA-S/cortisol ratio predicts treatment response at a medium level (AUC: 0.703, p: .030, sensitivity: 0.65, specificity: 0.86). The results of this study suggested that the DHEA-S/cortisol ratio may predict treatment response in adolescents with PTSD receiving EMDR therapy. The biochemical parameter of HPA-axis activity appears to be an important predictor of positive clinical response in adolescent PTSD patients, and could be used in clinical practice to predict PTSD treatment in the future.

  14. Survey of RF exposure levels from mobile telephone base stations in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, S I; Bangay, M J

    2006-01-01

    This paper reports the results of an exposure level survey of radiofrequency electromagnetic energy originating from mobile telephone base station antennas. Measurements of CDMA800, GSM900, GSM1800, and 3G(UMTS) signals were performed at distances ranging over 50 to 500 m from 60 base stations in five Australian cities. The exposure levels from these mobile telecommunications base stations were found to be well below the general public exposure limits of the ICNIRP guidelines and the Australian radiofrequency standard (ARPANSA RPS3). The highest recorded level from a single base station was 7.8 x 10(-3) W/m(2), which translates to 0.2% of the general public exposure limit.

  15. The cross-national pattern of happiness. Test of predictions implied in three theories of happiness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Veenhoven (Ruut); J.J. Ehrhardt (Joop)

    1995-01-01

    textabstractABSTRACT. Predictions about level and dispersion of happiness in nations are derived from three theories of happiness: comparison-theory, folklore-theory and livability-theory. The predictions are tested on two cross national data-sets: a comparative survey among university students in

  16. Prediction of hemoglobin levels in whole blood donors: how to model donation history

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baart, A.M.; Vergouwe, Y.; Atsma, F.; Moons, K.G.; Kort, W.L. de

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Recently, prediction models for hemoglobin (Hb) deferral risk have been developed. These models consider the previous Hb level plus change in Hb. Here, we investigated if the performance of models could be improved by considering more information on Hb level history. STUDY DESIGN AND

  17. Steady-State Plant Model to Predict Hydroden Levels in Power Plant Components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glatzmaier, Greg C.; Cable, Robert; Newmarker, Marc

    2017-06-27

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Acciona Energy North America developed a full-plant steady-state computational model that estimates levels of hydrogen in parabolic trough power plant components. The model estimated dissolved hydrogen concentrations in the circulating heat transfer fluid (HTF), and corresponding partial pressures within each component. Additionally for collector field receivers, the model estimated hydrogen pressure in the receiver annuli. The model was developed to estimate long-term equilibrium hydrogen levels in power plant components, and to predict the benefit of hydrogen mitigation strategies for commercial power plants. Specifically, the model predicted reductions in hydrogen levels within the circulating HTF that result from purging hydrogen from the power plant expansion tanks at a specified target rate. Our model predicted hydrogen partial pressures from 8.3 mbar to 9.6 mbar in the power plant components when no mitigation treatment was employed at the expansion tanks. Hydrogen pressures in the receiver annuli were 8.3 to 8.4 mbar. When hydrogen partial pressure was reduced to 0.001 mbar in the expansion tanks, hydrogen pressures in the receiver annuli fell to a range of 0.001 mbar to 0.02 mbar. When hydrogen partial pressure was reduced to 0.3 mbar in the expansion tanks, hydrogen pressures in the receiver annuli fell to a range of 0.25 mbar to 0.28 mbar. Our results show that controlling hydrogen partial pressure in the expansion tanks allows us to reduce and maintain hydrogen pressures in the receiver annuli to any practical level.

  18. Nomogram for prediction of level 2 axillary lymph node metastasis in proven level 1 node-positive breast cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yanlin; Xu, Hong; Zhang, Hao; Ou, Xunyan; Xu, Zhen; Ai, Liping; Sun, Lisha; Liu, Caigang

    2017-09-22

    The current management of the axilla in level 1 node-positive breast cancer patients is axillary lymph node dissection regardless of the status of the level 2 axillary lymph nodes. The goal of this study was to develop a nomogram predicting the probability of level 2 axillary lymph node metastasis (L-2-ALNM) in patients with level 1 axillary node-positive breast cancer. We reviewed the records of 974 patients with pathology-confirmed level 1 node-positive breast cancer between 2010 and 2014 at the Liaoning Cancer Hospital and Institute. The patients were randomized 1:1 and divided into a modeling group and a validation group. Clinical and pathological features of the patients were assessed with uni- and multivariate logistic regression. A nomogram based on independent predictors for the L-2-ALNM identified by multivariate logistic regression was constructed. Independent predictors of L-2-ALNM by the multivariate logistic regression analysis included tumor size, Ki-67 status, histological grade, and number of positive level 1 axillary lymph nodes. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the modeling set and the validation set were 0.828 and 0.816, respectively. The false-negative rates of the L-2-ALNM nomogram were 1.82% and 7.41% for the predicted probability cut-off points of level 1 axillary lymph node metastasis. Patients with a low probability of L-2-ALNM could be spared level 2 axillary lymph node dissection, thereby reducing postoperative morbidity.

  19. Does Group-Level Commitment Predict Employee Well-Being?: A Prospective Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clausen, Thomas; Christensen, Karl Bang; Nielsen, Karina

    2015-11-01

    To investigate the links between group-level affective organizational commitment (AOC) and individual-level psychological well-being, self-reported sickness absence, and sleep disturbances. A total of 5085 care workers from 301 workgroups in the Danish eldercare services participated in both waves of the study (T1 [2005] and T2 [2006]). The three outcomes were analyzed using linear multilevel regression analysis, multilevel Poisson regression analysis, and multilevel logistic regression analysis, respectively. Group-level AOC (T1) significantly predicted individual-level psychological well-being, self-reported sickness absence, and sleep disturbances (T2). The association between group-level AOC (T1) and psychological well-being (T2) was fully mediated by individual-level AOC (T1), and the associations between group-level AOC (T1) and self-reported sickness absence and sleep disturbances (T2) were partially mediated by individual-level AOC (T1). Group-level AOC is an important predictor of employee well-being in contemporary health care organizations.

  20. Volunteering predicts health among those who value others: two national studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulin, Michael J

    2014-02-01

    The purpose of these studies was to examine the role of positive views of other people in predicting stress-buffering effects of volunteering on mortality and psychological distress. In Study 1, stressful life events, volunteering, and hostile cynicism assessed in a baseline Detroit-area survey (N = 846) predicted survival over a 5-year period, adjusting for relevant covariates. In Study 2, stressful life events, volunteering, and world benevolence beliefs assessed in a baseline national survey (N = 1,157) predicted psychological distress over a 1-year period, adjusting for distress at baseline. In Study 1, a Cox proportional hazard model indicated that for individuals low in cynicism, stress predicted mortality at low levels of volunteering but not at high levels of volunteering. This effect was not present among those high in cynicism. In Study 2, multiple regression analysis revealed that among individuals high in world benevolence beliefs, stress predicted elevated distress at low levels of volunteering but not at high levels of volunteering. This effect was absent for those lower in world benevolence beliefs. Consistent with prior research on helping behavior, these studies indicate that helping behavior can buffer the effects of stress on health. However, the results of these studies indicate that stress-buffering effects of volunteering are limited to individuals with positive views of other people. Not all individuals may benefit from volunteering, and health-promotion efforts seeking to draw on health benefits of helping behavior may need to target their approach accordingly. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  1. DNCON2: improved protein contact prediction using two-level deep convolutional neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhikari, Badri; Hou, Jie; Cheng, Jianlin

    2018-05-01

    Significant improvements in the prediction of protein residue-residue contacts are observed in the recent years. These contacts, predicted using a variety of coevolution-based and machine learning methods, are the key contributors to the recent progress in ab initio protein structure prediction, as demonstrated in the recent CASP experiments. Continuing the development of new methods to reliably predict contact maps is essential to further improve ab initio structure prediction. In this paper we discuss DNCON2, an improved protein contact map predictor based on two-level deep convolutional neural networks. It consists of six convolutional neural networks-the first five predict contacts at 6, 7.5, 8, 8.5 and 10 Å distance thresholds, and the last one uses these five predictions as additional features to predict final contact maps. On the free-modeling datasets in CASP10, 11 and 12 experiments, DNCON2 achieves mean precisions of 35, 50 and 53.4%, respectively, higher than 30.6% by MetaPSICOV on CASP10 dataset, 34% by MetaPSICOV on CASP11 dataset and 46.3% by Raptor-X on CASP12 dataset, when top L/5 long-range contacts are evaluated. We attribute the improved performance of DNCON2 to the inclusion of short- and medium-range contacts into training, two-level approach to prediction, use of the state-of-the-art optimization and activation functions, and a novel deep learning architecture that allows each filter in a convolutional layer to access all the input features of a protein of arbitrary length. The web server of DNCON2 is at http://sysbio.rnet.missouri.edu/dncon2/ where training and testing datasets as well as the predictions for CASP10, 11 and 12 free-modeling datasets can also be downloaded. Its source code is available at https://github.com/multicom-toolbox/DNCON2/. chengji@missouri.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  2. Exploiting street-level panoramic images for large-scale automated surveying of traffic sign

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hazelhoff, L.; Creusen, I.M.; With, de P.H.N.

    2014-01-01

    Accurate and up-to-date inventories of traffic signs contribute to efficient road maintenance and a high road safety. This paper describes a system for the automated surveying of road signs from street-level images. This is an extremely challenging task, as the involved capturings are non-densely

  3. Predicting the impact of tsunami in California under rising sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dura, T.; Garner, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Kopp, R. E.; Horton, B.

    2017-12-01

    The flood hazard for the California coast depends not only on the magnitude, location, and rupture length of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone earthquakes and their resultant tsunamis, but also on rising sea levels, which combine with tsunamis to produce overall flood levels. The magnitude of future sea-level rise remains uncertain even on the decadal scale, with future sea-level projections becoming even more uncertain at timeframes of a century or more. Earthquake statistics indicate that timeframes of ten thousand to one hundred thousand years are needed to capture rare, very large earthquakes. Because of the different timescales between reliable sea-level projections and earthquake distributions, simply combining the different probabilities in the context of a tsunami hazard assessment may be flawed. Here, we considered 15 earthquakes between Mw 8 to Mw 9.4 bound by -171oW and -140oW of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone. We employed 24 realizations at each magnitude with random epicenter locations and different fault length-to-width ratios, and simulated the tsunami evolution from these 360 earthquakes at each decade from the years 2000 to 2200. These simulations were then carried out for different sea-level-rise projections to analyze the future flood hazard for California. Looking at the flood levels at tide gauges, we found that the flood level simulated at, for example, the year 2100 (including respective sea-level change) is different from the flood level calculated by adding the flood for the year 2000 to the sea-level change prediction for the year 2100. This is consistent for all sea-level rise scenarios, and this difference in flood levels range between 5% and 12% for the larger half of the given magnitude interval. Focusing on flood levels at the tide gauge in the Port of Los Angeles, the most probable flood level (including all earthquake magnitudes) in the year 2000 was 5 cm. Depending on the sea-level predictions, in the year 2050 the most probable

  4. Predictive Factors of Patient Satisfaction with Pharmacy Services in South Korea: A Cross-Sectional Study of National Level Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunkyung Lee

    Full Text Available Patient satisfaction has emerged as a prerequisite to improving patients' health behaviors leading to better health care outcomes. This study was to identify predictive determinants for patient satisfaction with pharmacy services using national-level data.A cross-sectional evaluation was conducted using 2008 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES data. To assess the predictive factors for patient satisfaction with pharmacy services, an ordinal logistic regression model was conducted adjusting for patient characteristics, clinical comorbidities, and perception of health.A total of 9,744 people, a representative sample of 48.2 million Koreans, participated in the 2008 KNHANES, of whom 2,188 (23.6% reported visits to pharmacy within the last 2 weeks prior to the survey. Of the patients who visited the pharmacy, 74.6% reported to be either "very satisfied" or "satisfied," and 25.4% responded as being "neutral," "dissatisfied," or "very dissatisfied." A multivariate ordinal logistic regression analysis with weighted observations revealed that patients with fair perception of health (adjusted OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.01-1.74; p<0.05 and those with middle to low family incomes (adjusted OR 1.34; 95% CI 1.02-1.76; p<0.05 were more likely to be satisfied with pharmacy services, and employment-based insurers were less likely to be satisfied with pharmacy services (adjusted OR 0.80; 95% CI 0.65-0.97; p<0.05.Our findings indicated that three out of four patients expressed satisfaction toward pharmacy services. Middle to low family incomes, fair perception of health, and employee insured individuals were significant predictors of patient satisfaction with pharmacy services.

  5. Concomitant prediction of function and fold at the domain level with GO-based profiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Daniel; Pazos, Florencio

    2013-01-01

    Predicting the function of newly sequenced proteins is crucial due to the pace at which these raw sequences are being obtained. Almost all resources for predicting protein function assign functional terms to whole chains, and do not distinguish which particular domain is responsible for the allocated function. This is not a limitation of the methodologies themselves but it is due to the fact that in the databases of functional annotations these methods use for transferring functional terms to new proteins, these annotations are done on a whole-chain basis. Nevertheless, domains are the basic evolutionary and often functional units of proteins. In many cases, the domains of a protein chain have distinct molecular functions, independent from each other. For that reason resources with functional annotations at the domain level, as well as methodologies for predicting function for individual domains adapted to these resources are required.We present a methodology for predicting the molecular function of individual domains, based on a previously developed database of functional annotations at the domain level. The approach, which we show outperforms a standard method based on sequence searches in assigning function, concomitantly predicts the structural fold of the domains and can give hints on the functionally important residues associated to the predicted function.

  6. County-level characteristics as predictors of dentists? ECC counseling in the USA: a survey study

    OpenAIRE

    Milgrom, Peter; Huebner, Colleen E; Mancl, Lloyd A; Chi, Donald L; Garson, Gayle; Grembowski, David

    2013-01-01

    Background Transmission of Streptococcus mutans from mother-to-child can lead to Early Childhood Caries. A previous study identified characteristics and beliefs of general dentists about counseling pregnant women to reduce risk of infection and Early Childhood Caries. This study extends those findings with an analysis of county level factors. Methods In 2006, we surveyed 732 general dentists in Oregon, USA about dental care for pregnant women. Survey items asked about individual and practice ...

  7. Diagnostic performance of initial serum albumin level for predicting in-hospital mortality among aspiration pneumonia patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyosun; Jo, Sion; Lee, Jae Baek; Jin, Youngho; Jeong, Taeoh; Yoon, Jaechol; Lee, Jeong Moon; Park, Boyoung

    2018-01-01

    The predictive value of serum albumin in adult aspiration pneumonia patients remains unknown. Using data collected during a 3-year retrospective cohort of hospitalized adult patients with aspiration pneumonia, we evaluated the predictive value of serum albumin level at ED presentation for in-hospital mortality. 248 Patients were enrolled; of these, 51 cases died (20.6%). The mean serum albumin level was 3.4±0.7g/dL and serum albumin levels were significantly lower in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group (3.0±0.6g/dL vs. 3.5±0.6g/dL). In the multivariable logistic regression model, albumin was associated with in-hospital mortality significantly (adjusted odds ratio 0.30, 95% confidential interval (CI) 0.16-0.57). The area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) for in-hospital survival was 0.72 (95% CI 0.64-0.80). The Youden index was 3.2g/dL and corresponding sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive and negative likelihood ratio were 68.6%, 66.5%, 34.7%, 89.1%, 2.05 and 0.47, respectively. High sensitivity (98.0%) was shown at albumin level of 4.0g/dL and high specificity (94.9%) was shown at level of 2.5g/dL. Initial serum albumin levels were independently associated with in-hospital mortality among adult patients hospitalized with aspiration pneumonia and demonstrated fair discriminative performance in the prediction of in-hospital mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. First trimester serum PAPP-A levels and the prediction of small-for-gestational age infants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nilgün Güdücü

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The aim of this study was to detect thepredictive value of PAPP-A in small-for-gestational age(SGA infants.Materials and methods: We retrospectively searchedthe patient charts of our hospital for first trimester Downsyndrome screening test results. PAPP-A levels less than5th percentile were considered as predictive of SGA infants.Results: Low PAPP-A levels were associated with SGAinfants, sensitivity was 3,5%, specificity 90%, positivepredictive value 1,6% and negative predictive value 95%.Conclusions: The low positive predictive value of PAPPAprevents it from being used as a screening test for thedetection of SGA infants. J Clin Exp Invest 2012; 3(2:185-188

  9. Using the McSweeney Acute and Prodromal Myocardial Infarction Symptom Survey to Predict the Occurrence of Short-Term Coronary Heart Disease Events in Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McSweeney, Jean C; Cleves, Mario A; Fischer, Ellen P; Pettey, Christina M; Beasley, Brittany

    Few instruments capture symptoms that predict cardiac events in the short-term. This study examines the ability of the McSweeney Acute and Prodromal Myocardial Infarction Symptom Survey to predict acute cardiac events within 3 months of administration and to identify the prodromal symptoms most associated with short-term risk in women without known coronary heart disease. The McSweeney Acute and Prodromal Myocardial Infarction Symptom Survey was administered to 1,097 women referred to a cardiologist for initial coronary heart disease evaluation. Logistic regression models were used to examine prodromal symptoms individually and in combination to identify the subset of symptoms most predictive of an event within 3 months. Fifty-one women had an early cardiac event. In bivariate analyses, 4 of 30 prodromal symptoms were significantly associated with event occurrence within 90 days. In adjusted analyses, women reporting arm pain or discomfort and unusual fatigue were more likely (OR, 4.67; 95% CI, 2.08-10.48) to have a cardiac event than women reporting neither. The McSweeney Acute and Prodromal Myocardial Infarction Symptom Survey may assist in predicting short-term coronary heart disease events in women without known coronary heart disease. Copyright © 2017 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. All rights reserved.

  10. Optimizing community-level surveillance data for pediatric asthma management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wande O. Benka-Coker

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Community-level approaches for pediatric asthma management rely on locally collected information derived primarily from two sources: claims records and school-based surveys. We combined claims and school-based surveillance data, and examined the asthma-related risk patterns among adolescent students.Symptom data collected from school-based asthma surveys conducted in Oakland, CA were used for case identification and determination of severity levels for students (high and low. Survey data were matched to Medicaid claims data for all asthma-related health care encounters for the year prior to the survey. We then employed recursive partitioning to develop classification trees that identified patterns of demographics and healthcare utilization associated with severity.A total of 561 students had complete matched data; 86.1% were classified as high-severity, and 13.9% as low-severity asthma. The classification tree consisted of eight subsets: three indicating high severity and five indicating low severity. The risk subsets highlighted varying combinations of non-specific demographic and socioeconomic predictors of asthma prevalence, morbidity and severity. For example, the subset with the highest class-prior probability (92.1% predicted high-severity asthma and consisted of students without prescribed rescue medication, but with at least one in-clinic nebulizer treatment. The predictive accuracy of the tree-based model was approximately 66.7%, with an estimated 91.1% of high-severity cases and 42.3% of low-severity cases correctly predicted.Our analysis draws on the strengths of two complementary datasets to provide community-level information on children with asthma, and demonstrates the utility of recursive partitioning methods to explore a combination of features that convey asthma severity. Keywords: Asthma, Classification, Risk stratification, Statistical data analysis, Disease management

  11. Predictive Validity of Curriculum-Based Measures for English Learners at Varying English Proficiency Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jennifer Sun; Vanderwood, Michael L.; Lee, Catherine Y.

    2016-01-01

    This study examined the predictive validity of curriculum-based measures in reading for Spanish-speaking English learners (ELs) at various levels of English proficiency. Third-grade Spanish-speaking EL students were screened during the fall using DIBELS Oral Reading Fluency (DORF) and Daze. Predictive validity was examined in relation to spring…

  12. An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for Sea Level Prediction Considering Tide-Generating Forces and Oceanic Thermal Expansion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-Ching Lin Hsien-Kuo Chang

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system for predicting sea level considering tide-generating forces and oceanic thermal expansion assuming a model of sea level dependence on sea surface temperature. The proposed model named TGFT-FN (Tide-Generating Forces considering sea surface Temperature and Fuzzy Neuro-network system is applied to predict tides at five tide gauge sites located in Taiwan and has the root mean square of error of about 7.3 - 15.0 cm. The capability of TGFT-FN model is superior in sea level prediction than the previous TGF-NN model developed by Chang and Lin (2006 that considers the tide-generating forces only. The TGFT-FN model is employed to train and predict the sea level of Hua-Lien station, and is also appropriate for the same prediction at the tide gauge sites next to Hua-Lien station.

  13. Stress levels of critical care doctors in India: A national survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amte, Rahul; Munta, Kartik; Gopal, Palepu B

    2015-05-01

    Doctors working in critical care units are prone to higher stress due to various factors such as higher mortality and morbidity, demanding service conditions and need for higher knowledge and technical skill. The aim was to evaluate the stress level and the causative stressors in doctors working in critical care units in India. A two modality questionnaire-based cross-sectional survey was conducted. In manual mode, randomly selected delegates attending the annual congress of Indian Society of Critical Care Medicine filled the questionnaire. In the electronic mode, the questionnaires were E-mailed to critical care doctors. These questionnaires were based on General Health Questionnaire-12 (GHQ-12). Completely filled 242 responses were utilized for comparative and correlation analysis. Prevalence of moderate to severe stress level was 40% with a mean score of 2 on GHQ-12 scale. Too much responsibility at times and managing VIP patients ranked as the top two stressors studied, while the difficult relationship with colleagues and sexual harassment were the least. Intensivists were spending longest hours in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) followed by pulmonologists and anesthetists. The mean number of ICU bed critical care doctors entrusted with was 13.2 ± 6.3. Substance abuse to relieve stress was reported as alcohol (21%), anxiolytic or antidepressants (18%) and smoking (14%). Despite the higher workload, stress levels measured in our survey in Indian critical care doctors were lower compared to International data. Substantiation of this data through a wider study and broad-based measures to improve the quality of critical care units and quality of the lives of these doctors is the need of the hour.

  14. Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

    2013-01-01

    Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

  15. Distinct coping strategies differentially predict urge levels and lapses in a smoking cessation attempt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodbeck, Jeannette; Bachmann, Monica S; Znoj, Hansjörg

    2013-06-01

    This study analysed mechanisms through which stress-coping and temptation-coping strategies were associated with lapses. Furthermore, we explored whether distinct coping strategies differentially predicted reduced lapse risk, lower urge levels, or a weaker association between urge levels and lapses during the first week of an unassisted smoking cessation attempt. Participants were recruited via the internet and mass media in Switzerland. Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) with mobile devices was used to assess urge levels and lapses. Online questionnaires were used to measure smoking behaviours and coping variables at baseline, as well as smoking behaviour at the three-month follow-up. The sample consisted of 243 individuals, aged 20 to 40, who reported 4199 observations. Findings of multilevel regression analyses show that coping was mainly associated with a reduced lapse risk and not with lower urge levels or a weaker association between urge levels and lapses. 'Calming down' and 'commitment to change' predicted a lower lapse risk and also a weaker relation between urge levels and lapses. 'Stimulus control' predicted a lower lapse risk and lower urge levels. Conversely, 'task-orientation' and 'risk assessment' were related to higher lapse risk and 'risk assessment' also to higher urge levels. Disengagement coping i.e. 'eating or shopping', 'distraction', and 'mobilising social support' did not affect lapse risk. Promising coping strategies during the initial stage of smoking cessation attempt are targeted directly at reducing the lapse risk and are characterised by engagement with the stressor or one's reactions towards the stressor and a focus on positive consequences instead of health risks. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Daily sea level prediction at Chiayi coast, Taiwan using extreme learning machine and relevance vector machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imani, Moslem; Kao, Huan-Chin; Lan, Wen-Hau; Kuo, Chung-Yen

    2018-02-01

    The analysis and the prediction of sea level fluctuations are core requirements of marine meteorology and operational oceanography. Estimates of sea level with hours-to-days warning times are especially important for low-lying regions and coastal zone management. The primary purpose of this study is to examine the applicability and capability of extreme learning machine (ELM) and relevance vector machine (RVM) models for predicting sea level variations and compare their performances with powerful machine learning methods, namely, support vector machine (SVM) and radial basis function (RBF) models. The input dataset from the period of January 2004 to May 2011 used in the study was obtained from the Dongshi tide gauge station in Chiayi, Taiwan. Results showed that the ELM and RVM models outperformed the other methods. The performance of the RVM approach was superior in predicting the daily sea level time series given the minimum root mean square error of 34.73 mm and the maximum determination coefficient of 0.93 (R2) during the testing periods. Furthermore, the obtained results were in close agreement with the original tide-gauge data, which indicates that RVM approach is a promising alternative method for time series prediction and could be successfully used for daily sea level forecasts.

  17. Dynamic Question Ordering in Online Surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Early Kirstin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Online surveys have the potential to support adaptive questions, where later questions depend on earlier responses. Past work has taken a rule-based approach, uniformly across all respondents. We envision a richer interpretation of adaptive questions, which we call Dynamic Question Ordering (DQO, where question order is personalized. Such an approach could increase engagement, and therefore response rate, as well as imputation quality. We present a DQO framework to improve survey completion and imputation. In the general survey-taking setting, we want to maximize survey completion, and so we focus on ordering questions to engage the respondent and collect hopefully all information, or at least the information that most characterizes the respondent, for accurate imputations. In another scenario, our goal is to provide a personalized prediction. Since it is possible to give reasonable predictions with only a subset of questions, we are not concerned with motivating users to answer all questions. Instead, we want to order questions to get information that reduces prediction uncertainty, while not being too burdensome. We illustrate this framework with two case studies, for the prediction and survey-taking settings. We also discuss DQO for national surveys and consider connections between our statistics-based question-ordering approach and cognitive survey methodology.

  18. Predicting Land-Ice Retreat and Sea-Level Rise with the Community Earth System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipscomb, William [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-06-19

    Coastal stakeholders need defensible predictions of 21st century sea-level rise (SLR). IPCC assessments suggest 21st century SLR of {approx}0.5 m under aggressive emission scenarios. Semi-empirical models project SLR of {approx}1 m or more by 2100. Although some sea-level contributions are fairly well constrained by models, others are highly uncertain. Recent studies suggest a potential large contribution ({approx}0.5 m/century) from the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet, linked to changes in Southern Ocean wind stress. To assess the likelihood of fast retreat of marine ice sheets, we need coupled ice-sheet/ocean models that do not yet exist (but are well under way). CESM is uniquely positioned to provide integrated, physics based sea-level predictions.

  19. Marine radio-ecology, surveying and predicting: French coasts watched by the IRSN; In the search for finer predictions; Answering the questions of a city council before works

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2012-01-01

    A set of articles presents the activities and missions undertaken by the IRSN in order to control, understand and predict the behaviour of radionuclides in the sea. Twenty three measurement stations are located along the French coasts to survey the radioactivity of water, of sediments, and of sea flora and fauna. Through various programs and projects, researchers are developing always more refined models to simulate and predict the behaviour of radioactive releases in the sea, and their consequences. Beside, the IRSN intervenes as an expert, for example to assess whether there is radiological risk for workers and sea food when dredging sediments in the harbour of La Rochelle

  20. A simple lead dust fall method predicts children's blood lead level: New evidence from Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulson, Brian; Taylor, Alan

    2017-11-01

    We have measured dust fall accumulation in petri dishes (PDD) collected 6 monthly from inside residences in Sydney urban area, New South Wales, Australia as part of a 5-year longitudinal study to determine environmental associations, including soil. with blood lead (PbB) levels. The Pb loading in the dishes (n = 706) had geometric means (GM) of 24µg/m 2 /30d, a median value of 22µg/m 2 /30d with a range from 0.2 to 11,390µg/m 2 /30d. Observed geometric mean PbB was 2.4µg/dL at ages 2-3 years. Regression analyses showed a statistically significant relationship between predicted PbB and PDD. The predicted PbB values from dust in our study are consistent with similar analyses from the US in which floor dust was collected by wipes. Predicted PbB values from PDD indicate that an increase in PDD of about 100µg/m 2 /30d would increase PbB by about 1.5µg/dL or a doubling PbB at the low levels currently observed in many countries. Predicted PbB values from soil indicate that a change from 0 to 1000mg Pb/kg results in an increase of 1.7µg/dL in PbB, consistent with earlier investigations. Blood Pb levels can be predicted from dust fall accumulation (and soil) in cases where blood sampling is not always possible, especially in young children. Petri dish loading data could provide an alternative or complementary "action level" at about 100µg Pb/m 2 /30 days, similar to the suggested level of about 110µg Pb/m 2 for surface wipes, for use in monitoring activities such as housing rehabilitation, demolition or soil resuspension. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. PREDICTIONS FOR ULTRA-DEEP RADIO COUNTS OF STAR-FORMING GALAXIES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mancuso, Claudia; Lapi, Andrea; De Zotti, Gianfranco; Bressan, Alessandro; Perrotta, Francesca; Danese, Luigi [Astrophysics Sector, SISSA, Via Bonomea 265, I-34136 Trieste (Italy); Cai, Zhen-Yi [CAS Key Laboratory for Research in Galaxies and Cosmology, Department of Astronomy, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui 230026 (China); Negrello, Mattia; Bonato, Matteo, E-mail: cmancuso@sissa.it [INAF—Osservatorio Astronomico di Padova, Vicolo dell’Osservatorio 5, I-35122 Padova (Italy)

    2015-09-01

    We have worked outty predictions for the radio counts of star-forming galaxies down to nJy levels, along with redshift distributions down to the detection limits of the phase 1 Square Kilometer Array MID telescope (SKA1-MID) and of its precursors. Such predictions were obtained by coupling epoch-dependent star formation rate (SFR) functions with relations between SFR and radio (synchrotron and free–free) emission. The SFR functions were derived taking into account both the dust-obscured and the unobscured star formation, by combining far-infrared, ultraviolet, and Hα luminosity functions up to high redshifts. We have also revisited the South Pole Telescope counts of dusty galaxies at 95 GHz, performing a detailed analysis of the Spectral Energy Distributions. Our results show that the deepest SKA1-MID surveys will detect high-z galaxies with SFRs two orders of magnitude lower compared to Herschel surveys. The highest redshift tails of the distributions at the detection limits of planned SKA1-MID surveys comprise a substantial fraction of strongly lensed galaxies. We predict that a survey down to 0.25 μJy at 1.4 GHz will detect about 1200 strongly lensed galaxies per square degree, at redshifts of up to 10. For about 30% of them the SKA1-MID will detect at least 2 images. The SKA1-MID will thus provide a comprehensive view of the star formation history throughout the re-ionization epoch, unaffected by dust extinction. We have also provided specific predictions for the EMU/ASKAP and MIGHTEE/MeerKAT surveys.

  2. A Critical Evaluation of Survey Results of Vitamin A and Fe Levels in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A nationwide survey was conducted to ascertain the levels of Vitamin A and Fe in wheat and maize flours, sugar and vegetable oils and some flour-based processed foods to assess compliance to the Nigerian Industrial Standard. Samples were collected from factories and markets in all the 36 states of the six geopolitical ...

  3. The Feasibility of Collecting School-Level Finance Data: An Evaluation of Data from the School-Level Finance Survey (SLFS) School Year 2013-14. Research and Development Report. NCES 2018-305

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornman, Stephen Q.; Zhou, Lei; Ampadu, Osei; D'Antonio, Laura; Gromos, David; Wheeler, Stephen

    2018-01-01

    This report presents school-level finance data on expenditures by function from the School-Level Finance Survey (SLFS). The SLFS is an extension of two existing collections being conducted by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) in collaboration with the Census Bureau: the School District Finance Survey (F-33) and the state-level…

  4. Optimal level of continuous positive airway pressure: auto-adjusting titration versus titration with a predictive equation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Ji Ho; Jun, Young Joon; Oh, Jeong In; Jung, Jong Yoon; Hwang, Gyu Ho; Kwon, Soon Young; Lee, Heung Man; Kim, Tae Hoon; Lee, Sang Hag; Lee, Seung Hoon

    2013-05-01

    The aims of the present study were twofold. We sought to compare two methods of titrating the level of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) - auto-adjusting titration and titration using a predictive equation - with full-night manual titration used as the benchmark. We also investigated the reliability of the two methods in patients with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS). Twenty consecutive adult patients with OSAS who had successful, full-night manual and auto-adjusting CPAP titration participated in this study. The titration pressure level was calculated with a previously developed predictive equation based on body mass index and apnea-hypopnea index. The mean titration pressure levels obtained with the manual, auto-adjusting, and predictive equation methods were 9.0 +/- 3.6, 9.4 +/- 3.0, and 8.1 +/- 1.6 cm H2O,respectively. There was a significant difference in the concordance within the range of +/- 2 cm H2O (p = 0.019) between both the auto-adjusting titration and the titration using the predictive equation compared to the full-night manual titration. However, there was no significant difference in the concordance within the range of +/- 1 cm H2O (p > 0.999). When compared to full-night manual titration as the standard method, auto-adjusting titration appears to be more reliable than using a predictive equation for determining the optimal CPAP level in patients with OSAS.

  5. A survey of core and support activities of communicable disease surveillance systems at operating-level CDCs in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Weiyi; Lv, Jun; Li, Liming

    2010-11-17

    In recent years, problems like insufficient coordination, low efficiency, and heavy working load in national communicable disease surveillance systems in China have been pointed out by many researchers. To strengthen the national communicable disease surveillance systems becomes an immediate concern. Since the World Health Organization has recommended that a structured approach to strengthen national communicable disease surveillance must include an evaluation to existing systems which usually begins with a systematic description, we conducted the first survey for communicable disease surveillance systems in China, in order to understand the situation of core and support surveillance activities at province-level and county-level centers for disease control and prevention (CDCs). A nationwide survey was conducted by mail between May and October 2006 to investigate the implementation of core and support activities of the Notifiable Disease Reporting System (NDRS) and disease-specific surveillance systems in all of the 31 province-level and selected 14 county-level CDCs in Mainland China The comments on the performance of communicable disease surveillance systems were also collected from the directors of CDCs in this survey. The core activities of NDRS such as confirmation, reporting and analysis and some support activities such as supervision and staff training were found sufficient in both province-level and county-level surveyed CDCs, but other support activities including information feedback, equipment and financial support need to be strengthened in most of the investigated CDCs. A total of 47 communicable diseases or syndromes were under surveillance at province level, and 20 diseases or syndromes at county level. The activities among different disease-specific surveillance systems varied widely. Acute flaccid paralysis (AFP), measles and tuberculosis (TB) surveillance systems got relatively high recognition both at province level and county level. China has

  6. Seasonal dependence of the predictable low-level circulation patterns over the tropical Indo-Pacific domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tuantuan; Huang, Bohua; Yang, Song; Laohalertchai, Charoon

    2018-06-01

    The seasonal dependence of the prediction skill of 850-hPa monthly zonal wind over the tropical Indo-Pacific domain is examined using the ensemble reforecasts for 1983-2010 from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) project. According to a maximum signal-to-noise empirical orthogonal function analysis, the most predictable patterns of atmospheric low-level circulation are associated with the developing and maturing phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The CFSv2 is capable of predicting these ENSO-related patterns up to 9-months in advance for all months, except for May-June when the effect of the spring barrier is strong. The other predictable climate processes associated with the low-level atmospheric circulation are more seasonally dependent. For winter and spring, the second most predictable patterns are associated with the ENSO decaying phase. Within these seasons, the monthly evolution of the predictable patterns is characterized by a southward shift of westerly wind anomalies, generated by the interaction between the annual cycle and the ENSO signals (i.e., the combination-mode). In general, the CFSv2 hindcast well predicts these patterns at least 5 months in advance for spring, while shows much lower skills for winter months. In summer, the second predictable patterns are associated with the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon (i.e., the WNP anticyclone/cyclone) in short leads while associated with ENSO in longer leads (after 4-month lead). The second predictable patterns in fall are mainly associated with tropical Indian Ocean Dipole, which can be predicted 3 months in advance.

  7. Low-level percepts predict emotion concepts across modalities and cultures

    OpenAIRE

    Parkinson, Carolyn; Sievers, Beau; Wheatley, Thalia; Haslett, William; Walker, Trent

    2017-01-01

    Köhler (1929) first demonstrated that “hard” sounds (e.g., takete) are intuitively associated with spiky shapes, while “soft” sounds (e.g., maluma) are associated with rounded shapes. Here we replicate Köhler’s original shape–sound correspondence study using non-phonetic sounds in a population with little exposure to globalized culture. Further, we show that these low-level crossmodal correspondences predict judgments of emotional arousal. Together, these findings suggest that cross-cultural,...

  8. Predicting arsenic concentrations in groundwater of San Luis Valley, Colorado: implications for individual-level lifetime exposure assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Katherine A; Meliker, Jaymie R; Buttenfield, Barbara E; Byers, Tim; Zerbe, Gary O; Hokanson, John E; Marshall, Julie A

    2014-08-01

    Consumption of inorganic arsenic in drinking water at high levels has been associated with chronic diseases. Risk is less clear at lower levels of arsenic, in part due to difficulties in estimating exposure. Herein we characterize spatial and temporal variability of arsenic concentrations and develop models for predicting aquifer arsenic concentrations in the San Luis Valley, Colorado, an area of moderately elevated arsenic in groundwater. This study included historical water samples with total arsenic concentrations from 595 unique well locations. A longitudinal analysis established temporal stability in arsenic levels in individual wells. The mean arsenic levels for a random sample of 535 wells were incorporated into five kriging models to predict groundwater arsenic concentrations at any point in time. A separate validation dataset (n = 60 wells) was used to identify the model with strongest predictability. Findings indicate that arsenic concentrations are temporally stable (r = 0.88; 95 % CI 0.83-0.92 for samples collected from the same well 15-25 years apart) and the spatial model created using ordinary kriging best predicted arsenic concentrations (ρ = 0.72 between predicted and observed validation data). These findings illustrate the value of geostatistical modeling of arsenic and suggest the San Luis Valley is a good region for conducting epidemiologic studies of groundwater metals because of the ability to accurately predict variation in groundwater arsenic concentrations.

  9. Serum albumin level predicts initial intravenous immunoglobulin treatment failure in Kawasaki disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Ho-Chang; Liang, Chi-Di; Wang, Chih-Lu; Yu, Hong-Ren; Hwang, Kao-Pin; Yang, Kuender D

    2010-10-01

    Kawasaki disease (KD) is a systemic vasculitis primarily affecting children who are initial IVIG treatment. This study was conducted to investigate the risk factors for initial IVIG treatment failure in KD. Children who met KD diagnosis criteria and were admitted for IVIG treatment were retrospectively enrolled for analysis. Patients were divided into IVIG-responsive and IVIG-resistant groups. Initial laboratory data before IVIG treatment were collected for analysis. A total of 131 patients were enrolled during the study period. At 48 h after completion of initial IVIG treatment, 20 patients (15.3%) had an elevated body temperature. Univariate analysis showed that patients who had initial findings of high neutrophil count, abnormal liver function, low serum albumin level (≤2.9 g/dL) and pericardial effusion were at risk for IVIG treatment failure. Multivariate analysis with a logistic regression procedure showed that serum albumin level was considered the independent predicting factor of IVIG resistance in patients with KD (p = 0.006, OR = 40, 95% CI: 52.8-562). There was no significant correlation between age, gender, fever duration before IVIG treatment, haemoglobin level, total leucocyte and platelet counts, C-reactive protein level, or sterile pyuria and initial IVIG treatment failure. The specificity and sensitivity for prediction of IVIG treatment failure in this study were 96% and 34%, respectively. Pre-IVIG treatment serum albumin levels are a useful predictor of IVIG resistance in patients with KD. © 2010 The Author(s)/Journal Compilation © 2010 Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

  10. Optimization of muscle activity for task-level goals predicts complex changes in limb forces across biomechanical contexts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Lucas McKay

    Full Text Available Optimality principles have been proposed as a general framework for understanding motor control in animals and humans largely based on their ability to predict general features movement in idealized motor tasks. However, generalizing these concepts past proof-of-principle to understand the neuromechanical transformation from task-level control to detailed execution-level muscle activity and forces during behaviorally-relevant motor tasks has proved difficult. In an unrestrained balance task in cats, we demonstrate that achieving task-level constraints center of mass forces and moments while minimizing control effort predicts detailed patterns of muscle activity and ground reaction forces in an anatomically-realistic musculoskeletal model. Whereas optimization is typically used to resolve redundancy at a single level of the motor hierarchy, we simultaneously resolved redundancy across both muscles and limbs and directly compared predictions to experimental measures across multiple perturbation directions that elicit different intra- and interlimb coordination patterns. Further, although some candidate task-level variables and cost functions generated indistinguishable predictions in a single biomechanical context, we identified a common optimization framework that could predict up to 48 experimental conditions per animal (n = 3 across both perturbation directions and different biomechanical contexts created by altering animals' postural configuration. Predictions were further improved by imposing experimentally-derived muscle synergy constraints, suggesting additional task variables or costs that may be relevant to the neural control of balance. These results suggested that reduced-dimension neural control mechanisms such as muscle synergies can achieve similar kinetics to the optimal solution, but with increased control effort (≈2× compared to individual muscle control. Our results are consistent with the idea that hierarchical, task-level

  11. Human performance in radiological survey scanning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, W.S.; Abelquist, E.W.

    1998-03-01

    The probability of detecting residual contamination in the field using portable radiological survey instruments depends not only on the sensitivity of the instrumentation used in scanning, but also on the surveyor's performance. This report provides a basis for taking human performance into account in determining the minimum level of activity detectable by scanning. A theoretical framework was developed (based on signal detection theory) which allows influences on surveyors to be anticipated and understood, and supports a quantitative assessment of performance. The performance of surveyors under controlled yet realistic field conditions was examined to gain insight into the task and to develop means of quantifying performance. Then, their performance was assessed under laboratory conditions to quantify more precisely their ability to make the required discriminations. The information was used to characterize surveyors' performance in the scanning task and to provide a basis for predicting levels of radioactivity that are likely to be detectable under various conditions by surveyors using portable survey instruments

  12. Human performance in radiological survey scanning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, W.S. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Abelquist, E.W. [Oak Ridge Inst. for Science and Education, TN (United States)

    1998-03-01

    The probability of detecting residual contamination in the field using portable radiological survey instruments depends not only on the sensitivity of the instrumentation used in scanning, but also on the surveyor`s performance. This report provides a basis for taking human performance into account in determining the minimum level of activity detectable by scanning. A theoretical framework was developed (based on signal detection theory) which allows influences on surveyors to be anticipated and understood, and supports a quantitative assessment of performance. The performance of surveyors under controlled yet realistic field conditions was examined to gain insight into the task and to develop means of quantifying performance. Then, their performance was assessed under laboratory conditions to quantify more precisely their ability to make the required discriminations. The information was used to characterize surveyors` performance in the scanning task and to provide a basis for predicting levels of radioactivity that are likely to be detectable under various conditions by surveyors using portable survey instruments.

  13. Frameworks to monitor and predict rates and resource usage in the ATLAS High Level Trigger

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(INSPIRE)INSPIRE-00219969; The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    The ATLAS High Level Trigger Farm consists of around 40,000 CPU cores which filter events at an input rate of up to 100 kHz. A costing framework is built into the high level trigger thus enabling detailed monitoring of the system and allowing for data-driven predictions to be made utilising specialist datasets. An overview is presented in to how ATLAS collects in-situ monitoring data on CPU usage during the trigger execution, and how these data are processed to yield both low level monitoring of individual selection-algorithms and high level data on the overall performance of the farm. For development and prediction purposes, ATLAS uses a special ‘Enhanced Bias’ event selection. This mechanism is explained along with how it is used to profile expected resource usage and output event rate of new physics selections, before they are executed on the actual high level trigger farm.

  14. Survey of ambient electromagnetic and radio-frequency interference levels in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kercel, S.W.; Moore, M.R.; Blakeman, E.D.; Ewing, P.D.; Wood, R.T.

    1996-11-01

    This document reports the results of a survey of ambient electromagnetic conditions in representative nuclear power plants. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research engaged the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to perform these measurements to characterize the electromagnetic interference (EMI) and radio-frequency interference (RFI) levels that can be expected in nuclear power plant environments. This survey is the first of its kind, being based on long-term unattended observations. The data presented in this report were measured at eight different nuclear units and required 14 months to collect. A representative sampling of power plant conditions (reactor type, operating mode, site location) monitored over extended observation periods (up to 5 weeks) were selected to more completely determine the characteristic electromagnetic environment for nuclear power plants. Radiated electric fields were measured over the frequency range of 5 MHz to 8 GHz. Radiated magnetic fields and conducted EMI events were measured over the frequency range of 305 Hz to 5 MHz. Highest strength observations of the electromagnetic ambient environment across all measurement conditions at each site provide frequency-dependent profiles for EMI/RFI levels in nuclear power plants

  15. Results of ground level radiation measurements in support of the 1978 aerial survey of the Lake Ontario Ordnance Works, Lewiston, New York

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berven, B.A.; Doane, R.W.; Haywood, F.F.; Shinpaugh, W.H.

    1979-09-01

    This report contains the results of a limited series of measurements at the Lake Ontario Ordnance Works site, three miles northeast of Lewiston, New York. The scope of this survey was not extensive, and the survey was conducted to support a concurrent aerial survey conducted by EG and G, Inc. Results of this survey indicate two souces of significant external gamma exposure on the site as well as several locations that retain low to intermediate levels of radioactivity in soil. Off-site soil radionuclide concentrations were well within background levels with one exception. Water radionuclide concentrations on the site in the Central Drainage Ditch are significantly above background levels but decrease with distance from the spoil pile, and are within restrictive concentration guides for off-site locations

  16. Are Ethnic Disparities in HbA1c Levels Explained by Mental Wellbeing? Analysis of Population-Based Data from the Health Survey for England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umeh, Kanayo

    2018-02-01

    It is unclear how ethnic differences in HbA 1c levels are affected by individual variations in mental wellbeing. Thus, the aim of this study was to assess the extent to which HbA 1c disparities between Caucasian and South Asian adults are mediated by various aspects of positive psychological functioning. Data from the 2014 Health Survey for England was analysed using bootstrapping methods. A total of 3894 UK residents with HbA 1c data were eligible to participate. Mental wellbeing was assessed using the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale. To reduce bias BMI, blood pressure, diabetes status, and other factors were treated as covariates. Ethnicity directly predicted blood sugar control (unadjusted coefficient -2.15; 95% CI -3.64, -0.67), with Caucasians generating lower average HbA 1c levels (37.68 mmol/mol (5.6%)) compared to South Asians (39.87 mmol/mol (5.8%)). This association was mediated by positive mental wellbeing, specifically concerning perceived vigour (unadjusted effect 0.30; 95% CI 0.13, 0.58): South Asians felt more energetic than Caucasians (unadjusted coefficient -0.32; 95% CI -0.49, -0.16), and greater perceived energy predicted lower HbA 1c levels (unadjusted coefficient -0.92; 95% CI -1.29, -0.55). This mediator effect accounted for just over 14% of the HbA 1c variance and was negated after adjusting for BMI. Caucasian experience better HbA 1c levels compared with their South Asian counterparts. However, this association is partly confounded by individual differences in perceived energy levels, which is implicated in better glycaemic control, and appears to serve a protective function in South Asians.

  17. Endocan Levels in Peripheral Blood Predict Outcomes of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ling Tang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. To investigate the prognostic significance of endocan, compared with procalcitonin (PCT, C-reactive protein (CRP,white blood cells (WBC, neutrophils (N, and clinical severity scores in patients with ARDS. Methods. A total of 42 patients with ARDS were initially enrolled, and there were 20 nonsurvivors and 22 survivors based on hospital mortality. Plasma levels of biomarkers were measured and the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II was calculated on day 1 after the patient met the defining criteria of ARDS. Results. Endocan levels significantly correlated with the APACHE II score in the ARDS group (r=0.676, P=0.000, n=42. Of 42 individuals with ARDS, 20 were dead, and endocan was significantly higher in nonsurvivors than in survivors (median (IQR 5.01 (2.98–8.44 versus 3.01 (2.36–4.36 ng/mL, P=0.017. According to the results of the ROC-curve analysis and COX proportional hazards models, endocan can predict mortality of ARDS independently with a hazard ratio of 1.374 (95% CI, 1.150–1.641 and an area of receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC of 0.715 (P=0.017. Moreover, endocan can predict the multiple-organ dysfunction of ARDS. Conclusion. Endocan is a promising biomarker to predict the disease severity and mortality in patients with ARDS.

  18. Serum eosinophil cationic protein levels can be useful for predicting acute exacerbation of asthma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitsuhiro Kamimura

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available We report on a case in which five consecutive exacerbations of asthma were monitored by following serum eosinophil cationic protein (ECP levels. The serum ECP level correlated well with each exacerbation and tended to increase even before the exacerbations of asthma became apparent. This case shows that serum levels of ECP can be useful markers of disease activity and may also be predictive markers for acute exacerbation.

  19. The predictive nature of transcript expression levels on protein expression in adult human brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauernfeind, Amy L; Babbitt, Courtney C

    2017-04-24

    Next generation sequencing methods are the gold standard for evaluating expression of the transcriptome. When determining the biological implications of such studies, the assumption is often made that transcript expression levels correspond to protein levels in a meaningful way. However, the strength of the overall correlation between transcript and protein expression is inconsistent, particularly in brain samples. Following high-throughput transcriptomic (RNA-Seq) and proteomic (liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry) analyses of adult human brain samples, we compared the correlation in the expression of transcripts and proteins that support various biological processes, molecular functions, and that are located in different areas of the cell. Although most categories of transcripts have extremely weak predictive value for the expression of their associated proteins (R 2 values of < 10%), transcripts coding for protein kinases and membrane-associated proteins, including those that are part of receptors or ion transporters, are among those that are most predictive of downstream protein expression levels. The predictive value of transcript expression for corresponding proteins is variable in human brain samples, reflecting the complex regulation of protein expression. However, we found that transcriptomic analyses are appropriate for assessing the expression levels of certain classes of proteins, including those that modify proteins, such as kinases and phosphatases, regulate metabolic and synaptic activity, or are associated with a cellular membrane. These findings can be used to guide the interpretation of gene expression results from primate brain samples.

  20. Support vector regression model based predictive control of water level of U-tube steam generators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kavaklioglu, Kadir, E-mail: kadir.kavaklioglu@pau.edu.tr

    2014-10-15

    Highlights: • Water level of U-tube steam generators was controlled in a model predictive fashion. • Models for steam generator water level were built using support vector regression. • Cost function minimization for future optimal controls was performed by using the steepest descent method. • The results indicated the feasibility of the proposed method. - Abstract: A predictive control algorithm using support vector regression based models was proposed for controlling the water level of U-tube steam generators of pressurized water reactors. Steam generator data were obtained using a transfer function model of U-tube steam generators. Support vector regression based models were built using a time series type model structure for five different operating powers. Feedwater flow controls were calculated by minimizing a cost function that includes the level error, the feedwater change and the mismatch between feedwater and steam flow rates. Proposed algorithm was applied for a scenario consisting of a level setpoint change and a steam flow disturbance. The results showed that steam generator level can be controlled at all powers effectively by the proposed method.

  1. Predicting adult pulmonary ventilation volume and wearing complianceby on-board accelerometry during personal level exposure assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodes, C. E.; Chillrud, S. N.; Haskell, W. L.; Intille, S. S.; Albinali, F.; Rosenberger, M. E.

    2012-09-01

    BackgroundMetabolic functions typically increase with human activity, but optimal methods to characterize activity levels for real-time predictions of ventilation volume (l min-1) during exposure assessments have not been available. Could tiny, triaxial accelerometers be incorporated into personal level monitors to define periods of acceptable wearing compliance, and allow the exposures (μg m-3) to be extended to potential doses in μg min-1 kg-1 of body weight? ObjectivesIn a pilot effort, we tested: 1) whether appropriately-processed accelerometer data could be utilized to predict compliance and in linear regressions to predict ventilation volumes in real-time as an on-board component of personal level exposure sensor systems, and 2) whether locating the exposure monitors on the chest in the breathing zone, provided comparable accelerometric data to other locations more typically utilized (waist, thigh, wrist, etc.). MethodsPrototype exposure monitors from RTI International and Columbia University were worn on the chest by a pilot cohort of adults while conducting an array of scripted activities (all volumes in-situ. For the subset of participants with complete data (n = 22), linear regressions were constructed (processed accelerometric variable versus ventilation rate) for each participant and exposure monitor type, and Pearson correlations computed to compare across scenarios. ResultsTriaxial accelerometer data were demonstrated to be adequately sensitive indicators for predicting exposure monitor wearing compliance. Strong linear correlations (R values from 0.77 to 0.99) were observed for all participants for both exposure sensor accelerometer variables against ventilation volume for recumbent, sedentary, and ambulatory activities with MET values ˜volume data. Computing accelerometric standard deviations allowed good sensitivity for compliance assessments even for sedentary activities. These pilot findings supported the hypothesis that a common linear

  2. Predicting the level of job satisfaction based on hardiness and its components among nurses with tension headache.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahdavi, A; Nikmanesh, E; AghaeI, M; Kamran, F; Zahra Tavakoli, Z; Khaki Seddigh, F

    2015-01-01

    Nurses are the most significant part of human resources in a sanitary and health system. Job satisfaction results in the enhancement of organizational productivity, employee commitment to the organization and ensuring his/ her physical and mental health. The present research was conducted with the aim of predicting the level of job satisfaction based on hardiness and its components among the nurses with tension headache. The research method was correlational. The population consisted of all the nurses with tension headache who referred to the relevant specialists in Tehran. The sample size consisted of 50 individuals who were chosen by using the convenience sampling method and were measured and investigated by using the research tools of "Job Satisfaction Test" of Davis, Lofkvist and Weiss and "Personal Views Survey" of Kobasa. The data analysis was carried out by using the Pearson Correlation Coefficient and the Regression Analysis. The research findings demonstrated that the correlation coefficient obtained for "hardiness", "job satisfaction" was 0.506, and this coefficient was significant at the 0.01 level. Moreover, it was specified that the sense of commitment and challenge were stronger predictors for job satisfaction of nurses with tension headache among the components of hardiness, and, about 16% of the variance of "job satisfaction" could be explained by the two components (sense of commitment and challenge).

  3. A survey of nurse staffing levels in interventional radiology units throughout the UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Christie, A.; Robertson, I.

    2016-01-01

    Aim: To supplement previous surveys analysing provision of interventional radiology (IR), in-hours (IH) and out-of-hours (OOH), by specifically surveying the level of nursing support provided. Materials and methods: A web-based questionnaire was distributed to all British Society of Interventional Radiology (BSIR) members. This addressed several aspects of radiology nursing support for IR procedures, both IH and OOH. Results: Sixty percent of respondents indicated that they have a formal OOH service. Of these, all have a dedicated nursing rota, with the vast majority operating with one nurse. IH, 77% of respondents always have a scrubbed nurse assistant, but this reduces to 40% OOH. IH, 4% never have a scrubbed radiology nurse assistant, which rises to 25% OOH. IH, 75% of respondents always have a radiology nurse dedicated to patient monitoring, but this reduces to 20% OOH. IH, 3% never have a radiology nurse dedicated to patient monitoring, which rises to 42% OOH. Conclusion: A significant disparity exists in the level of IR nursing support between IH and OOH. The majority of sites provide a single nurse with ad hoc additional support. This is potentially putting patients at increased risk. Radiology nurses are integral to the safe and sustainable provision of IR OOH services and a greater focus is required to ensure adequate and safe staffing levels for 24/7 IR services. - Highlights: • A significant disparity exists between the level of nursing support provided in-hours and OOH. • This applies to both the availability of a nurse to scrub and to monitor the patient. • Having a dedicated 24/7 nursing rota is mandatory to providing a deliverable OOH service.

  4. Basal salivary oxytocin level predicts extra- but not intra-personal dimensions of emotional intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koven, Nancy S; Max, Laura K

    2014-06-01

    A wealth of literature suggests that oxytocin is an important mediator of social cognition, but much of the research to date has relied on pharmaceutical administration methods that can raise oxytocin to artificially high levels. The present study builds upon previous work by examining whether basal oxytocin level predicts intra- and extra-personal (i.e., self- and other-focused) elements of emotional intelligence (EI), independent of shared variance with current mood. The sample included 71 healthy young adults (46 women). Assessment measures included the Mayer-Salovey-Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test Version 2.0 (MSCEIT), the Trait Meta-Mood Scale, and the Profile of Mood States. Peripheral oxytocin levels were examined with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay from saliva after solid phase extraction. Oxytocin level was unrelated to TMMS scores but was positively associated with performance in the Experiential EI domain of the MSCEIT. However, total mood disturbance was positively related to MSCEIT scores. Hierarchical regression analysis indicated that oxytocin level added unique variance to the prediction of MSCEIT performance beyond that of current mood. These results confirm an association between endogenous levels of oxytocin in healthy adults and a subset of EI abilities, including extra-personal emotion recognition and the channeling of emotions to enhance social proficiency. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Predicting the Water Level Fluctuation in an Alpine Lake Using Physically Based, Artificial Neural Network, and Time Series Forecasting Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chih-Chieh Young

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of water level fluctuation is important in lake management due to its significant impacts in various aspects. This study utilizes four model approaches to predict water levels in the Yuan-Yang Lake (YYL in Taiwan: a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an artificial neural network (ANN model (back propagation neural network, BPNN, a time series forecasting (autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs, ARMAX model, and a combined hydrodynamic and ANN model. Particularly, the black-box ANN model and physically based hydrodynamic model are coupled to more accurately predict water level fluctuation. Hourly water level data (a total of 7296 observations was collected for model calibration (training and validation. Three statistical indicators (mean absolute error, root mean square error, and coefficient of correlation were adopted to evaluate model performances. Overall, the results demonstrate that the hydrodynamic model can satisfactorily predict hourly water level changes during the calibration stage but not for the validation stage. The ANN and ARMAX models better predict the water level than the hydrodynamic model does. Meanwhile, the results from an ANN model are superior to those by the ARMAX model in both training and validation phases. The novel proposed concept using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model in conjunction with an ANN model has clearly shown the improved prediction accuracy for the water level fluctuation.

  6. Advancing US GHG Inventory by Incorporating Survey Data using Machine-Learning Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alsaker, C.; Ogle, S. M.; Breidt, J.

    2017-12-01

    Crop management data are used in the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory that is compiled annually and reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Emissions for carbon stock change and N2O emissions for US agricultural soils are estimated using the USDA National Resources Inventory (NRI). NRI provides basic information on land use and cropping histories, but it does not provide much detail on other management practices. In contrast, the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) survey collects detailed crop management data that could be used in the GHG Inventory. The survey data were collected from NRI survey locations that are a subset of the NRI every 10 years. Therefore, imputation of the CEAP are needed to represent the management practices across all NRI survey locations both spatially and temporally. Predictive mean matching and an artificial neural network methods have been applied to develop imputation model under a multiple imputation framework. Temporal imputation involves adjusting the imputation model using state-level USDA Agricultural Resource Management Survey data. Distributional and predictive accuracy is assessed for the imputed data, providing not only management data needed for the inventory but also rigorous estimates of uncertainty.

  7. Pathway evidence of how musical perception predicts word-level reading ability in children with reading difficulties.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugo Cogo-Moreira

    Full Text Available To investigate whether specific domains of musical perception (temporal and melodic domains predict the word-level reading skills of eight- to ten-year-old children (n = 235 with reading difficulties, normal quotient of intelligence, and no previous exposure to music education classes.A general-specific solution of the Montreal Battery of Evaluation of Amusia (MBEA, which underlies a musical perception construct and is constituted by three latent factors (the general, temporal, and the melodic domain, was regressed on word-level reading skills (rate of correct isolated words/non-words read per minute.General and melodic latent domains predicted word-level reading skills.

  8. Translating crustacean biological responses from CO2 bubbling experiments into population-level predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Many studies of animal responses to ocean acidification focus on uniformly conditioned age cohorts that lack complexities typically found in wild populations. These studies have become the primary data source for predicting higher level ecological effects, but the roles of intras...

  9. Coral reef growth in an era of rapidly rising sea level: predictions and suggestions for long-term research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buddemeier, R W; Smith, S V

    1988-01-01

    Coral reef growth is intimately linked to sea level. It has been postulated that over the next century, sea level will rise at a probable average rate of 15 mm/year, in response to fossil fuel emissions, heating, and melting of the Antarctic ice cap. This predicted rate of sea level rise is five times the present modal rate of vertical accretion on coral reef flats and 50% greater than the maximum vertical accretion rates apparently attained by coral reefs. We use these predictions and observations to offer the following hypothesis for reef growth over the next century. The vertical accretion rates of protected reef flats will accelerate from the present modal rate up to the maximum rate, in response to the more rapidly rising sea level. This more rapid vertical accretion rate will be insufficient to keep up with sea level rise, if present predictions prove to be correct. Less protected reef flats will slow their rate of growth as they become inundated and subjected to erosion by progressively larger waves. This projected sea level rise and postulated reef response will provide an opportunity for long- term studies of the response of coral reef systems to a predictable and measurable forcing function.

  10. Middle cerebral artery peak systolic velocity to predict fetal hemoglobin levels in twin anemia-polycythemia sequence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slaghekke, F; Pasman, S; Veujoz, M; Middeldorp, J M; Lewi, L; Devlieger, R; Favre, R; Lopriore, E; Oepkes, D

    2015-10-01

    To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of middle cerebral artery peak systolic velocity (MCA-PSV) Doppler measurements in prediction of hemoglobin levels in twin anemia-polycythemia sequence (TAPS). This study involved a consecutive cohort comprising monochorionic twin pregnancies complicated by TAPS managed at three European fetal medicine centers between 2005 and 2013. The accuracy of MCA-PSV, measured immediately prior to fetal hemoglobin (Hb) measurement by fetal or cord blood sampling, for prediction of anemia and polycythemia was assessed using 2 × 2 tables. A total of 116 measurements (74 recorded in donors and 42 in recipients) from 43 twin pregnancies complicated by TAPS were available for analysis. MCA-PSV multiples of the median (MoM) values correlated well with Hb levels (r = - 0.86; P  5 SD below the mean) in TAPS donors was 94% (95% CI, 85-98%); specificity was 74% (95% CI, 62-83%); positive and negative predictive values were 76% (95% CI, 65-85%) and 94% (95% CI, 83-98%), respectively. The sensitivity of MCA-PSV ≤ 1.0 MoM to predict polycythemia (Hb level > 5 SD above the mean) in TAPS recipients was 97% (95% CI, 87-99%); specificity was 96% (95% CI, 89-99%); positive and negative predictive values were 93% (95% CI, 81-97%) and 99% (95% CI, 93-100%), respectively. MCA-PSV measurement has high diagnostic accuracy for predicting abnormal Hb levels in fetuses with TAPS. Copyright © 2015 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. A survey of PCDD/Fs and co-planar PCBs in the US meat and poultry supply in 2002-2003

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huwe, J.; Larsen, G.; Zaylskie, R.; Lorentzsen, M. [USDA, ARS, Biosciences Research Lab., Fargo (United States); Hoffman, M.K.; Deyrup, C.; Hulebak, K.; Clinch, N. [USDA, FSIS, OPHS, WA (United States)

    2004-09-15

    Periodic surveys of the food supply for dioxins and dioxin-like compounds are a useful tool to measure changes in dioxin levels in the environment and to update predictions of human exposure to these toxic compounds from dietary components. In the mid-1990s, the US Department of Agriculture together with the US Environmental Protection Agency conducted a survey of dioxins in beef, pork, and poultry from slaughtering facilities across the US. A similar survey has been conducted to obtain statistically-valid information about current levels of dioxins in domesticallyproduced meat and poultry, to further investigate any unusual findings, and to compare these new results with those from the previous survey.

  12. First-Trimester Serum Acylcarnitine Levels to Predict Preeclampsia: A Metabolomics Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria P. H. Koster

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To expand the search for preeclampsia (PE metabolomics biomarkers through the analysis of acylcarnitines in first-trimester maternal serum. Methods. This was a nested case-control study using serum from pregnant women, drawn between 8 and 14 weeks of gestational age. Metabolites were measured using an UPLC-MS/MS based method. Concentrations were compared between controls (n=500 and early-onset- (EO- PE (n=68 or late-onset- (LO- PE (n=99 women. Metabolites with a false discovery rate <10% for both EO-PE and LO-PE were selected and added to prediction models based on maternal characteristics (MC, mean arterial pressure (MAP, and previously established biomarkers (PAPPA, PLGF, and taurine. Results. Twelve metabolites were significantly different between EO-PE women and controls, with effect levels between −18% and 29%. For LO-PE, 11 metabolites were significantly different with effect sizes between −8% and 24%. Nine metabolites were significantly different for both comparisons. The best prediction model for EO-PE consisted of MC, MAP, PAPPA, PLGF, taurine, and stearoylcarnitine (AUC = 0.784. The best prediction model for LO-PE consisted of MC, MAP, PAPPA, PLGF, and stearoylcarnitine (AUC = 0.700. Conclusion. This study identified stearoylcarnitine as a novel metabolomics biomarker for EO-PE and LO-PE. Nevertheless, metabolomics-based assays for predicting PE are not yet suitable for clinical implementation.

  13. Work-family balance and energy : a day-level study on recovery conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sanz-Vergel, A.I.; Demerouti, E.; Moreno-Jiménez, B.; Mayo, M.

    2010-01-01

    The present study examines whether daily recovery inhibiting and enhancing conditions predict day-levels of work-family conflict (WFC), work-family facilitation (WFF), exhaustion and vigor. Forty-nine individuals from various professional backgrounds in Spain provided questionnaire and daily survey

  14. Multi-model predictive control method for nuclear steam generator water level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Ke; Yuan Jingqi

    2008-01-01

    The dynamics of a nuclear steam generator (SG) is very different according to the power levels and changes as time goes on. Therefore, it is an intractable as well as challenging task to improve the water level control system of the SG. In this paper, a robust model predictive control (RMPC) method is developed for the level control problem. Based on a multi-model framework, a combination of a local nominal model with a polytopic uncertain linear parameter varying (LPV) model is built to approximate the system's non-linear behavior. The optimization problem solved here is based on a receding horizon scheme involving the linear matrix inequality (LMI) technique. Closed loop stability and constraints satisfaction in the entire operating range are guaranteed by the feasibility of the optimization problem. Finally, simulation results show the effectiveness and the good performance of the proposed method

  15. Anxiety Sensitivity Uniquely Predicts Exercise Behaviors in Young Adults Seeking to Increase Physical Activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moshier, Samantha J; Szuhany, Kristin L; Hearon, Bridget A; Smits, Jasper A J; Otto, Michael W

    2016-01-01

    Individuals with elevated levels of anxiety sensitivity (AS) may be motivated to avoid aversive emotional or physical states, and therefore may have greater difficulty achieving healthy behavioral change. This may be particularly true for exercise, which produces many of the somatic sensations within the domain of AS concerns. Cross-sectional studies show a negative association between AS and exercise. However, little is known about how AS may prospectively affect attempts at behavior change in individuals who are motivated to increase their exercise. We recruited 145 young adults who self-identified as having a desire to increase their exercise behavior. Participants completed a web survey assessing AS and additional variables identified as important for behavior change-impulsivity, grit, perceived behavioral control, and action planning-and set a specific goal for exercising in the next week. One week later, a second survey assessed participants' success in meeting their exercise goals. We hypothesized that individuals with higher AS would choose lower exercise goals and would complete less exercise at the second survey. AS was not significantly associated with exercise goal level, but significantly and negatively predicted exercise at Time 2 and was the only variable to offer significant prediction beyond consideration of baseline exercise levels. These results underscore the importance of considering AS in relation to health behavior intentions. This is particularly apt given the absence of prediction offered by other traditional predictors of behavior change. © The Author(s) 2015.

  16. Attempted development and cross-validation of predictive models of individual-level and organizational-level turnover of nuclear power operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasa-Sideris, S.J.

    1989-01-01

    Nuclear power accounts for 209% of the electric power generated in the U.S. by 107 nuclear plants which employ over 8,700 operators. Operator turnover is significant to utilities from the economic point of view since it costs almost three hundred thousand dollars to train and qualify one operator, and because turnover affects plant operability and therefore plant safety. The study purpose was to develop and cross-validate individual-level and organizational-level models of turnover of nuclear power plant operators. Data were obtained by questionnaires and from published data for 1983 and 1984 on a number of individual, organizational, and environmental predictors. Plants had been in operation for two or more years. Questionnaires were returned by 29 out of 50 plants on over 1600 operators. The objectives were to examine the reliability of the turnover criterion, to determine the classification accuracy of the multivariate predictive models and of categories of predictors (individual, organizational, and environmental) and to determine if a homology existed between the individual-level and organizational-level models. The method was to examine the shrinkage that occurred between foldback design (in which the predictive models were reapplied to the data used to develop them) and cross-validation. Results did not support the hypothesis objectives. Turnover data were accurate but not stable between the two years. No significant differences were detected between the low and high turnover groups at the organization or individual level in cross-validation. Lack of stability in the criterion, restriction of range, and small sample size at the organizational level were serious limitations of this study. The results did support the methods. Considerable shrinkage occurred between foldback and cross-validation of the models

  17. SHORT-TERM SOLAR FLARE LEVEL PREDICTION USING A BAYESIAN NETWORK APPROACH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Daren; Huang Xin; Hu Qinghua; Zhou Rui; Wang Huaning; Cui Yanmei

    2010-01-01

    A Bayesian network approach for short-term solar flare level prediction has been proposed based on three sequences of photospheric magnetic field parameters extracted from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager longitudinal magnetograms. The magnetic measures, the maximum horizontal gradient, the length of neutral line, and the number of singular points do not have determinate relationships with solar flares, so the solar flare level prediction is considered as an uncertainty reasoning process modeled by the Bayesian network. The qualitative network structure which describes conditional independent relationships among magnetic field parameters and the quantitative conditional probability tables which determine the probabilistic values for each variable are learned from the data set. Seven sequential features-the maximum, the mean, the root mean square, the standard deviation, the shape factor, the crest factor, and the pulse factor-are extracted to reduce the dimensions of the raw sequences. Two Bayesian network models are built using raw sequential data (BN R ) and feature extracted data (BN F ), respectively. The explanations of these models are consistent with physical analyses of experts. The performances of the BN R and the BN F appear comparable with other methods. More importantly, the comprehensibility of the Bayesian network models is better than other methods.

  18. Modeling in low-level radioactive waste management from the US Geological Survey perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robertson, J.B.

    1980-01-01

    The United States Geological Survey (USGS) is a long-standing proponent of using models as tools in geohydrologic investigations. These models vary from maps and core samples to elaborate digital computer algorithms, depending on the needed application and resources available. Being a non-regulatory scientific agency, the USGS uses models primarily for: improving modeling technology, testing hypotheses, management of water resources, providing technical advice to other agencies, parameter sensitivity analysis, and determination of parameter values (inverse problems). At low-level radioactive waste disposal sites, we are most interested in developing better capabilities for understanding the groundwater flor regime within and away from burial trenches, geochemical factors affecting nuclide concentration and mobility in groundwater, and the effects that various changes in the geohydrologic conditions have on groundwater flow and nuclide migration. Although the Geological Survey has modeling capabilities in a variety of complex problems, significant deficiencies and limitations remain in certain areas, such as fracture flow conditions and solute transport in the unsaturated zone. However, even more serious are the deficiencies in measuring or estimating adequate input data for models and verification of model utility on real problems. Flow and transport models are being used by the USGS in several low-level disposal site studies, with varying degrees of sucess

  19. Survey of plutonium and uranium atom ratios and activity levels in Mortandad Canyon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallaher, B.M.; Benjamin, T.M.; Rokop, D.J.; Stoker, A.K.

    1997-09-22

    For more than three decades Mortandad Canyon has been the primary release area of treated liquid radioactive waste from the Los Alamos National Laboratory (Laboratory). In this survey, six water samples and seven stream sediment samples collected in Mortandad Canyon were analyzed by thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) to determine the plutonium and uranium activity levels and atom ratios. Be measuring the {sup 240}Pu/{sup 239}Pu atom ratios, the Laboratory plutonium component was evaluated relative to that from global fallout. Measurements of the relative abundance of {sup 235}U and {sup 236}U were also used to identify non-natural components. The survey results indicate the Laboratory plutonium and uranium concentrations in waters and sediments decrease relatively rapidly with distance downstream from the major industrial sources. Plutonium concentrations in shallow alluvial groundwater decrease by approximately 1000 fold along a 3000 ft distance. At the Laboratory downstream boundary, total plutonium and uranium concentrations were generally within regional background ranges previously reported. Laboratory derived plutonium is readily distinguished from global fallout in on-site waters and sediments. The isotopic ratio data indicates off-site migration of trace levels of Laboratory plutonium in stream sediments to distances approximately two miles downstream of the Laboratory boundary.

  20. Survey of plutonium and uranium atom ratios and activity levels in Mortandad Canyon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallaher, B.M.; Efurd, D.W.; Rokop, D.J.; Benjamin, T.M. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Stoker, A.K. [Science Applications, Inc., White Rock, NM (United States)

    1997-10-01

    For more than three decades, Mortandad Canyon has been the primary release area of treated liquid radioactive waste from the Los Alamos National Laboratory (Laboratory). In this survey, six water samples and seven stream sediment samples collected in Mortandad Canyon were analyzed by thermal ionization mass spectrometry to determine the plutonium and uranium activity levels and atom ratios. By measuring the {sup 240}Pu/{sup 239}Pu atom ratios, the Laboratory plutonium component was evaluated relative to that from global fallout. Measurements of the relative abundance of {sup 235}U and {sup 236}U were also used to identify non-natural components. The survey results indicate that the Laboratory plutonium and uranium concentrations in waters and sediments decrease relatively rapidly with distance downstream from the major industrial sources. Plutonium concentrations in shallow alluvial groundwater decrease by approximately 1,000-fold along a 3,000-ft distance. At the Laboratory downstream boundary, total plutonium and uranium concentrations were generally within regional background ranges previously reported. Laboratory-derived plutonium is readily distinguished from global fallout in on-site waters and sediments. The isotopic ratio data indicate off-site migration of trace levels of Laboratory plutonium in stream sediments to distances approximately two miles downstream of the Laboratory boundary.

  1. Survey of plutonium and uranium atom ratios and activity levels in Mortandad Canyon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallaher, B.M.; Efurd, D.W.; Rokop, D.J.; Benjamin, T.M.; Stoker, A.K.

    1997-10-01

    For more than three decades, Mortandad Canyon has been the primary release area of treated liquid radioactive waste from the Los Alamos National Laboratory (Laboratory). In this survey, six water samples and seven stream sediment samples collected in Mortandad Canyon were analyzed by thermal ionization mass spectrometry to determine the plutonium and uranium activity levels and atom ratios. By measuring the 240 Pu/ 239 Pu atom ratios, the Laboratory plutonium component was evaluated relative to that from global fallout. Measurements of the relative abundance of 235 U and 236 U were also used to identify non-natural components. The survey results indicate that the Laboratory plutonium and uranium concentrations in waters and sediments decrease relatively rapidly with distance downstream from the major industrial sources. Plutonium concentrations in shallow alluvial groundwater decrease by approximately 1,000-fold along a 3,000-ft distance. At the Laboratory downstream boundary, total plutonium and uranium concentrations were generally within regional background ranges previously reported. Laboratory-derived plutonium is readily distinguished from global fallout in on-site waters and sediments. The isotopic ratio data indicate off-site migration of trace levels of Laboratory plutonium in stream sediments to distances approximately two miles downstream of the Laboratory boundary

  2. Survey of plutonium and uranium atom ratios and activity levels in Mortandad Canyon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallaher, B.M.; Benjamin, T.M.; Rokop, D.J.; Stoker, A.K.

    1997-01-01

    For more than three decades Mortandad Canyon has been the primary release area of treated liquid radioactive waste from the Los Alamos National Laboratory (Laboratory). In this survey, six water samples and seven stream sediment samples collected in Mortandad Canyon were analyzed by thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) to determine the plutonium and uranium activity levels and atom ratios. Be measuring the 240 Pu/ 239 Pu atom ratios, the Laboratory plutonium component was evaluated relative to that from global fallout. Measurements of the relative abundance of 235 U and 236 U were also used to identify non-natural components. The survey results indicate the Laboratory plutonium and uranium concentrations in waters and sediments decrease relatively rapidly with distance downstream from the major industrial sources. Plutonium concentrations in shallow alluvial groundwater decrease by approximately 1000 fold along a 3000 ft distance. At the Laboratory downstream boundary, total plutonium and uranium concentrations were generally within regional background ranges previously reported. Laboratory derived plutonium is readily distinguished from global fallout in on-site waters and sediments. The isotopic ratio data indicates off-site migration of trace levels of Laboratory plutonium in stream sediments to distances approximately two miles downstream of the Laboratory boundary

  3. Clinical value of preoperative serum CA 19-9 and CA 125 levels in predicting the resectability of hilar cholangiocarcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Hai-Jie; Mao, Hui; Tan, Yong-Qiong; Shrestha, Anuj; Ma, Wen-Jie; Yang, Qin; Wang, Jun-Ke; Cheng, Nan-Sheng; Li, Fu-Yu

    2016-01-01

    To examine the predictive value of tumor markers for evaluating tumor resectability in patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma and to explore the prognostic effect of various preoperative factors on resectability in patients with potentially resectable tumors. Patients with potentially resectable tumors judged by radiologic examination were included. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted to evaluate serum carbohydrate antigenic determinant 19-9 (CA 19-9), carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA 125) and carcino embryonie antigen levels on tumor resectability. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were also conducted to analysis the correlation of preoperative factors with resectability. In patients with normal bilirubin levels, ROC curve analysis calculated the ideal CA 19-9 cut-off value of 203.96 U/ml in prediction of resectability, with a sensitivity of 83.7 %, specificity of 80 %, positive predictive value of 91.1 % and negative predictive value of 66.7 %. Meanwhile, the optimal cut-off value for CA 125 to predict resectability was 25.905 U/ml (sensitivity, 78.6 %; specificity, 67.5 %). In a multivariate logistic regression model, tumor size ≤3 cm (OR 4.149, 95 % CI 1.326-12.981, P = 0.015), preoperative CA 19-9 level ≤200 U/ml (OR 20.324, 95 % CI 6.509-63.467, P hilar cholangiocarcinoma. Preoperative CA 19-9 and CA 125 levels predict resectability in patients with radiological resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma. Increased preoperative CA 19-9 levels and CA 125 levels are associated with poor resectability rate.

  4. Analysis and prediction of daily physical activity level data using autoregressive integrated moving average models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Long, Xi; Pauws, S.C.; Pijl, M.; Lacroix, J.; Goris, A.H.C.; Aarts, R.M.

    2009-01-01

    Results are provided on predicting daily physical activity level (PAL) data from past data of participants of a physical activity lifestyle program aimed at promoting a healthier lifestyle consisting of more physical exercise. The PAL data quantifies the level of a person’s daily physical activity

  5. The Castleisland radon Survey (Sw Ireland)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Organo, C. [Radiological Protection Institute of Ireland, Dublin (Ireland); O' sullivan, F. [London Univ. College, Dept of Geomatic Engineering, London, (United Kingdom)

    2006-07-01

    Full text: In September 2003, following the identification of a house near Castleisland in County Kerry (Sw Ireland) with a seasonally adjusted annual average radon concentration of 49,000 Bq/m{sup 3}, the Radiological Protection of Ireland (R.P.I.I.) undertook to carry out a localised radon survey, the so-called 'Castleisland Radon Survey' (C.R.S.). The aim was to investigate the possibility that similarly extreme radon concentrations could be present in other houses in the surrounding area. A studied area of 400 km{sup 2} was designated around the town of Castleisland, divided in four 10 x 10 km{sup 2} grid squares, and all of the approximately 2,500 householders living in this area were invited to participate. Four hundred and eighteen householders responded to the invitation (17% response rate) but only 383 completed the survey. Fourteen percent of these 383 homes were found to have an annual average radon concentration above the Irish national Reference Level for domestic dwellings of 200 Bq/m{sup 3} while 2% were found to be above 800 Bq/m{sup 3}. An arithmetic mean of 147 Bq/m{sup 3} and a geometric mean of 70 Bq/m{sup 3} were calculated for the four studied grid squares. These can be compared with the respective values of 98 and 56 Bq/m3 calculated for the same area by the Irish National Radon Survey (N.R.S.). Similar trends are observed on a grid square by grid square basis where in one of them in particular, the C.R.S. allowed us to predict that 21% of all houses would have radon concentrations in excess of 200 Bq/m{sup 3}, against 6% predicted by the N.R.S.. This clearly indicates that the extent of the radon problem in the area has been underestimated by the N.R.S.. Two of the four grid squares investigated are currently designated as High Radon Areas (where 10% or more of all houses are predicted to exceed 200 Bq/m{sup 3}) based on the results from the N.R.S.. If one was to use predictions based on the results from the C.R.S., all four grid

  6. A survey of low-level radioactive waste treatment methods and problem areas associated with commercial nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jolley, R.L.; Rodgers, B.R.

    1987-01-01

    A survey was made (June 1985) of technologies that were currently being used, those that had been discontinued, and those that were under consideration for treatment of low-level radioactive waste from the commercial nuclear power plants in the United States. The survey results included information concerning problems areas, areas needing research and development, and the use of mobile treatment facilities

  7. Understanding and Predicting Social Media Use Among Community Health Center Patients: A Cross-Sectional Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background The use of social media by health care organizations is growing and provides Web-based tools to connect patients, caregivers, and providers. Objective The aim was to determine the use and factors predicting the use of social media for health care–related purposes among medically underserved primary care patients. Methods A cross-sectional survey was administered to 444 patients of a federally qualified community health center. Results Community health center patients preferred that their providers use email, cell phones for texting, and Facebook and cell phone apps for sharing health information. Significantly more Hispanic than white patients believed their providers should use Facebook (P=.001), YouTube (P=.01), and Twitter (P=.04) for sharing health information. Use and intentions to use social media for health-related purposes were significantly higher for those patients with higher subjective norm scores. Conclusions Understanding use and factors predicting use can increase adoption and utilization of social media for health care–related purposes among underserved patients in community health centers. PMID:25427823

  8. Stathmin protein level, a potential predictive marker for taxane treatment response in endometrial cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrica M J Werner

    Full Text Available Stathmin is a prognostic marker in many cancers, including endometrial cancer. Preclinical studies, predominantly in breast cancer, have suggested that stathmin may additionally be a predictive marker for response to paclitaxel. We first evaluated the response to paclitaxel in endometrial cancer cell lines before and after stathmin knock-down. Subsequently we investigated the clinical response to paclitaxel containing chemotherapy in metastatic endometrial cancer in relation to stathmin protein level in tumors. Stathmin level was also determined in metastatic lesions, analyzing changes in biomarker status on disease progression. Knock-down of stathmin improved sensitivity to paclitaxel in endometrial carcinoma cell lines with both naturally higher and lower sensitivity to paclitaxel. In clinical samples, high stathmin level was demonstrated to be associated with poor response to paclitaxel containing chemotherapy and to reduced disease specific survival only in patients treated with such combination. Stathmin level increased significantly from primary to metastatic lesions. This study suggests, supported by both preclinical and clinical data, that stathmin could be a predictive biomarker for response to paclitaxel treatment in endometrial cancer. Re-assessment of stathmin level in metastatic lesions prior to treatment start may be relevant. Also, validation in a randomized clinical trial will be important.

  9. Sea Level History in 3D: Early results of an ultra-high resolution MCS survey across IODP Expedition 313 drillsites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mountain, G. S.; Kucuk, H. M.; Nedimovic, M. R.; Austin, J. A., Jr.; Fulthorpe, C.; Newton, A.; Baldwin, K.; Johnson, C.; Stanley, J. N.; Bhatnagar, T.

    2015-12-01

    Although globally averaged sea level is rising at roughly 3 mm/yr (and is accelerating), rates of local sea-level change measured at coastlines may differ from this number by a factor of two or more; at some locations, sea level may even be falling. This is due to local processes that can match or even reverse the global trend, making it clear that reliable predictions of future impacts of sea-level rise require a firm understanding of processes at the local level. The history of local sea-level change and shoreline response is contained in the geologic record of shallow-water sediments. We report on a continuing study of sea-level history in sediments at the New Jersey continental margin, where compaction and glacial isostatic adjustment are currently adding 2 mm/yr to the globally averaged rise. We collected 570 sq km of ultra-high resolution 3D MCS data aboard the R/V Langseth in June-July 2015; innovative recording and preliminary results are described by Nedimovic et al. in this same session. The goal was to provide regional context to coring and logging at IODP Exp 313 sites 27-29 that were drilled 750 m into the New Jersey shelf in 2009. These sites recovered a nearly continuous record of post-Eocene sediments from non-marine soils, estuaries, shoreface, delta front, pro-delta and open marine settings. Existing seismic data are good but are 2D high-resolution profiles at line spacings too wide to enable mapping of key nearshore features. The Langseth 3D survey used shallow towing of a tuned air gun array to preserve high frequencies, and twenty-four 50-m PCables each 12.5 apart provided 6.25 x 3.125 m common-midpoint bins along seventy-seven 50-km sail lines. With this especially dense spatial resolution of a pre-stack time migrated volume we expect to map rivers, incised valleys, barrier islands, inlets and bays, pro-delta clinoforms, tidal deltas, sequence boundaries, debris flow aprons, and more. Seismic attributes linked to sedimentary facies and

  10. Quality assurance of external exposure measurement for national survey of environmental natural radioactive level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yue Qingyu

    1995-01-01

    This paper summarizes the quality assurance work of external exposure measurement for national survey of environmental natural radioactive level. It mainly introduces instrumentation used in external exposure measurement and its properties, the measurement results of three times of national in-site intercomparison, and in-site sample check results of measurement results from 29 provinces, cities and autonomous regions and Wuhan, Baotou cities

  11. The backend design of an environmental monitoring system upon real-time prediction of groundwater level fluctuation under the hillslope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Hsueh-Chun; Hong, Yao-Ming; Kan, Yao-Chiang

    2012-01-01

    The groundwater level represents a critical factor to evaluate hillside landslides. A monitoring system upon the real-time prediction platform with online analytical functions is important to forecast the groundwater level due to instantaneously monitored data when the heavy precipitation raises the groundwater level under the hillslope and causes instability. This study is to design the backend of an environmental monitoring system with efficient algorithms for machine learning and knowledge bank for the groundwater level fluctuation prediction. A Web-based platform upon the model-view controller-based architecture is established with technology of Web services and engineering data warehouse to support online analytical process and feedback risk assessment parameters for real-time prediction. The proposed system incorporates models of hydrological computation, machine learning, Web services, and online prediction to satisfy varieties of risk assessment requirements and approaches of hazard prevention. The rainfall data monitored from the potential landslide area at Lu-Shan, Nantou and Li-Shan, Taichung, in Taiwan, are applied to examine the system design.

  12. Can biomass responses to warming at plant to ecosystem levels be predicted by leaf-level responses?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, J.; Shao, J.; Zhou, X.; Yan, W.; Lu, M.

    2015-12-01

    Global warming has the profound impacts on terrestrial C processes from leaf to ecosystem scales, potentially feeding back to climate dynamics. Although numerous studies had investigated the effects of warming on C processes from leaf to plant and ecosystem levels, how leaf-level responses to warming scale up to biomass responses at plant, population, and community levels are largely unknown. In this study, we compiled a dataset from 468 papers at 300 experimental sites and synthesized the warming effects on leaf-level parameters, and plant, population and ecosystem biomass. Our results showed that responses of plant biomass to warming mainly resulted from the changed leaf area rather than the altered photosynthetic capacity. The response of ecosystem biomass to warming was weaker than those of leaf area and plant biomass. However, the scaling functions from responses of leaf area to plant biomass to warming were different in diverse forest types, but functions were similar in non-forested biomes. In addition, it is challenging to scale the biomass responses from plant up to ecosystem. These results indicated that leaf area might be the appropriate index for plant biomass response to warming, and the interspecific competition might hamper the scaling of the warming effects on plant and ecosystem levels, suggesting that the acclimation capacity of plant community should be incorporated into land surface models to improve the prediction of climate-C cycle feedback.

  13. EFFECT OF MEASUREMENT ERRORS ON PREDICTED COSMOLOGICAL CONSTRAINTS FROM SHEAR PEAK STATISTICS WITH LARGE SYNOPTIC SURVEY TELESCOPE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bard, D.; Chang, C.; Kahn, S. M.; Gilmore, K.; Marshall, S. [KIPAC, Stanford University, 452 Lomita Mall, Stanford, CA 94309 (United States); Kratochvil, J. M.; Huffenberger, K. M. [Department of Physics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124 (United States); May, M. [Physics Department, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States); AlSayyad, Y.; Connolly, A.; Gibson, R. R.; Jones, L.; Krughoff, S. [Department of Astronomy, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States); Ahmad, Z.; Bankert, J.; Grace, E.; Hannel, M.; Lorenz, S. [Department of Physics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907 (United States); Haiman, Z.; Jernigan, J. G., E-mail: djbard@slac.stanford.edu [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027 (United States); and others

    2013-09-01

    We study the effect of galaxy shape measurement errors on predicted cosmological constraints from the statistics of shear peak counts with the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). We use the LSST Image Simulator in combination with cosmological N-body simulations to model realistic shear maps for different cosmological models. We include both galaxy shape noise and, for the first time, measurement errors on galaxy shapes. We find that the measurement errors considered have relatively little impact on the constraining power of shear peak counts for LSST.

  14. Ghrelin level negatively predicts quality of life in obese women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, P H; Song, Y L; Hsu, C H

    2017-02-01

    A cross-sectional cohort study was conducted to investigate whether ghrelin level in obese women predicts the quality of life (QOL). A total of 307 subjects fulfilled the criteria: (1) age between 20 and 65 years old, (2) body mass index ≥27 kg/m 2 (3) waist circumference ≥80 cm were enrolled in the study. All subjects were assigned to one of the plasma ghrelin level categories according to the quartiles. The median of age and BMI of the 307 obese women were 45 ± 18 years and 29.9 ± 4.1 kg/m 2 , respectively. The main outcome evaluated is the associations of plasma ghrelin level and QOL, which were evaluated using multiple linear regression analysis. Results of linear trend test show significant statistical difference in plasma lipoproteins (triglyceride, cholesterol, HDL-cholestero and LDL-cholesterol = and levels of obesity-related hormone peptides, including leptin, adiponectin, insulin among quartiles of ghrelin. Multiple liner regression analysis of serum obesity-related hormone peptide level and QOL using stepwise method shows ghrelin concentration was the only predictor of QOL, including PCS-12 level (β = -0.18, p = 0.001), MCS-12 level (β = -0.14, p = 0.009), WHOQOL-BREF scores: physical (β = -0.13, p = 0.03), psychological (β = -0.16, p = 0.007), social (β = -0.21, p =  ghrelin concentration is strongly associated with QOL level among obese women. Hence, ghrelin concentration might be a valuable marker to be monitored in obese women.

  15. Clinical Reasoning: Survey of Teaching Methods, Integration, and Assessment in Entry-Level Physical Therapist Academic Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Nicole; Black, Lisa; Furze, Jennifer; Huhn, Karen; Vendrely, Ann; Wainwright, Susan

    2017-02-01

    Although clinical reasoning abilities are important learning outcomes of physical therapist entry-level education, best practice standards have not been established to guide clinical reasoning curricular design and learning assessment. This research explored how clinical reasoning is currently defined, taught, and assessed in physical therapist entry-level education programs. A descriptive, cross-sectional survey was administered to physical therapist program representatives. An electronic 24-question survey was distributed to the directors of 207 programs accredited by the Commission on Accreditation in Physical Therapy Education. Descriptive statistical analysis and qualitative content analysis were performed. Post hoc demographic and wave analyses revealed no evidence of nonresponse bias. A response rate of 46.4% (n=96) was achieved. All respondents reported that their programs incorporated clinical reasoning into their curricula. Only 25% of respondents reported a common definition of clinical reasoning in their programs. Most respondents (90.6%) reported that clinical reasoning was explicit in their curricula, and 94.8% indicated that multiple methods of curricular integration were used. Instructor-designed materials were most commonly used to teach clinical reasoning (83.3%). Assessment of clinical reasoning included practical examinations (99%), clinical coursework (94.8%), written examinations (87.5%), and written assignments (83.3%). Curricular integration of clinical reasoning-related self-reflection skills was reported by 91%. A large number of incomplete surveys affected the response rate, and the program directors to whom the survey was sent may not have consulted the faculty members who were most knowledgeable about clinical reasoning in their curricula. The survey construction limited some responses and application of the results. Although clinical reasoning was explicitly integrated into program curricula, it was not consistently defined, taught, or

  16. Utility of baseline serum phosphorus levels for predicting remission in acromegaly patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yalin, G Y; Tanrikulu, S; Gul, N; Uzum, A K; Aral, F; Tanakol, R

    2017-08-01

    High GH and IGF I levels increase tubular phosphate reabsorption in patients with acromegaly. We aimed to investigate the utility of serum phosphorus levels as an indicator for predicting chance of remission in acromegaly patients. Fifty-one patients (n: 51; F: 24, M: 27) with diagnosis of acromegaly were included in the study. Plasma IGF-1, Phosphorus (P) and nadir GH levels on oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) at the time of diagnosis were analysed retrospectively. Patients were classified into two groups according to their plasma P levels; P ≤ 4.5 mg/dl (Group-1, n: 23, 45.1%), P > 4.5 mg/dl (Group-2, n: 28, 54.9%). Two groups were compared according to remission status; remission (n: 27) and non-remission (n: 24). Remission was defined with absence of clinical symptoms, normal plasma IGF-1 (adjusted for age and gender) and GH levels (acromegaly patients. Further studies with wider spectrum are needed to make specific suggestions.

  17. Circulating Oxidized Low-Density Lipoprotein Levels Independently Predict 10-Year Progression of Subclinical Carotid Atherosclerosis: A Community-Based Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Shen; Zhao, Dong; Qi, Yue; Wang, Wei; Wang, Miao; Sun, Jiayi; Liu, Jun; Li, Yan; Liu, Jing

    2018-03-07

    To investigate the association between circulating oxidized low-density lipoprotein (ox-LDL) levels and progression of subclinical atherosclerosis and to examine whether this link is independent of other low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-related parameters. Totally, 804 subjects who were free of cardiovascular disease at baseline completed risk factor surveys and carotid ultrasound measurements in 2002 and 2012. Modified Poisson regression was performed to examine the association between baseline serum ox-LDL levels and the 10-year risk of progression of carotid atherosclerosis which was defined as the development of at least one new plaque in a previously plaque-free carotid segment at re-examination. The mean age of the subjects was 58.6±7.7 years at baseline and 43.3% were men. A total of 504 (62.7%) subjects had carotid plaque progression at re-examination. Subjects in the intermediate and highest tertiles of ox-LDL had a significantly higher adjusted risk of atherosclerosis progression than those in the lowest tertile [relative risk (95% confidence interval) 1.17 (1.01-1.34) for the intermediate tertile and 1.23 (1.07-1.42) for the highest tertile]. This association was independent of baseline levels of LDL-C, total LDL particle number, and small LDL particle number. This study demonstrates that serum ox-LDL levels predict 10-year progression of subclinical atherosclerosis. Moreover, this effect is independent of the cholesterol content, the number, and the size of LDL particles.

  18. Single-Event Transgene Product Levels Predict Levels in Genetically Modified Breeding Stacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gampala, Satyalinga Srinivas; Fast, Brandon J; Richey, Kimberly A; Gao, Zhifang; Hill, Ryan; Wulfkuhle, Bryant; Shan, Guomin; Bradfisch, Greg A; Herman, Rod A

    2017-09-13

    The concentration of transgene products (proteins and double-stranded RNA) in genetically modified (GM) crop tissues is measured to support food, feed, and environmental risk assessments. Measurement of transgene product concentrations in breeding stacks of previously assessed and approved GM events is required by many regulatory authorities to evaluate unexpected transgene interactions that might affect expression. Research was conducted to determine how well concentrations of transgene products in single GM events predict levels in breeding stacks composed of these events. The concentrations of transgene products were compared between GM maize, soybean, and cotton breeding stacks (MON-87427 × MON-89034 × DAS-Ø15Ø7-1 × MON-87411 × DAS-59122-7 × DAS-40278-9 corn, DAS-81419-2 × DAS-44406-6 soybean, and DAS-21023-5 × DAS-24236-5 × SYN-IR102-7 × MON-88913-8 × DAS-81910-7 cotton) and their component single events (MON-87427, MON-89034, DAS-Ø15Ø7-1, MON-87411, DAS-59122-7, and DAS-40278-9 corn, DAS-81419-2, and DAS-44406-6 soybean, and DAS-21023-5, DAS-24236-5, SYN-IR102-7, MON-88913-8, and DAS-81910-7 cotton). Comparisons were made within a crop and transgene product across plant tissue types and were also made across transgene products in each breeding stack for grain/seed. Scatter plots were generated comparing expression in the stacks to their component events, and the percent of variability accounted for by the line of identity (y = x) was calculated (coefficient of identity, I 2 ). Results support transgene concentrations in single events predicting similar concentrations in breeding stacks containing the single events. Therefore, food, feed, and environmental risk assessments based on concentrations of transgene products in single GM events are generally applicable to breeding stacks composed of these events.

  19. 76 FR 69761 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-09

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation... 96-472, the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) will hold a 1\\1/2\\-day meeting.... Geological Survey on proposed earthquake predictions, on the completeness and scientific validity of the...

  20. Predicting Well-Being in Europe?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hussain, M. Azhar

    2015-01-01

    Has the worst financial and economic crisis since the 1930s reduced the subjective wellbeing function's predictive power? Regression models for happiness are estimated for the three first rounds of the European Social Survey (ESS); 2002, 2004 and 2006. Several explanatory variables are significant...... happiness. Nevertheless, 73% of the predictions in 2008 and 57% of predictions in 2010 were within the margin of error. These correct prediction percentages are not unusually low - rather they are slightly higher than before the crisis. It is surprising that happiness predictions are not adversely affected...... by the crisis. On the other hand, results are consistent with the adaption hypothesis. The same exercise is conducted applying life satisfaction instead of happiness, but we reject, against expectation, that (more transient) happiness is harder to predict than life satisfaction. Fifteen ESS countries surveyed...

  1. Effects of the activation of self-esteem and perceived temporal distance on the preparation for an examination(2): Temporal changes in performance prediction

    OpenAIRE

    藤島, 喜嗣; Yoshitsugu, FUJISHIMA; 昭和女子大学大学院生活機構研究科

    2012-01-01

    Self-esteem is a global representation of the self that varies in its level of activation. Self-esteem should have an influence on future prediction depending on its activation level. According to the construal level theory, temporal distance moderates the influence of the activated self-esteem. Undergraduates (n=89) participated in a panel survey on predictions about their examination performance, in which their level of self-esteem activation was manipulated. Contrary to the hypothesis, the...

  2. Survey and analysis of the domestic technology level for the concept development of high level waste disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Chang Sun; Kim, Byung Su; Song, Jae Hyok [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea); Park, Kwang Hon; Hwang, Ju Ho; Park, Sung Hyun; Lee, Jae Min [Kyunghee University, Seoul (Korea); Han, Joung Sang; Kim, Ku Young [Yonsei University, Seoul (Korea); Lee, Jae Ki; Chang, Jae Kwon [Hangyang University, Seoul (Korea)

    1998-09-01

    The objectives of this study are the analysis of the status of HLW disposal technology and the investigation of the domestic technology level. The study has taken two years to complete with the participation of forty five researchers. The study was mainly carried out through means of literature surveys, collection of related data, visits to research institutes, and meetings with experts in the specific fields. During the first year of this project, the International Symposium on the Concept Development of the High Level Waste Disposal System was held in Taejon, Korea in October, 1997. Eight highly professed foreign experts whose fields of expertise projected to the area of high level waste disposal were invited to the symposium. This study is composed of four major areas; disposal system design/construction, engineered barrier characterization, geologic environment evaluation and performance assessment and total safety. A technical tree scheme of HLW disposal has been illustrated according to the investigation and an analysis for each technical area. For each detailed technology, research projects, performing organization/method and techniques that are to be secured in the order of priority are proposed, but the suggestions are merely at a superfluous level of propositional idea due to the reduction of the budget in the second year. The detailed programs on HLW disposal are greatly affected by governmental HLW disposal policy and in this study, the primary decisions to be made in each level of HLW disposal enterprise and a rough scheme are proposed. (author). 20 refs., 97 figs., 33 tabs.

  3. A comparison between predicted and observed levels of 137Cs and 90Sr in the Baltic Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, S.P.

    1997-01-01

    A model based on compartmental analysis has been developed to simulate the dispersion of radionuclides in the Baltic Sea. The model is intended for the prediction of annual average concentrations of radionuclides in the marine environment. The quality of the model predictions has been investigated by comparing predicted levels of 137 Cs and 90 Sr in water, top sediment and biota with observed levels covering the period 1960-1992. The sources of radioactivity into the Baltic region that have been considered are fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing, fallout from the Chernobyl accident, liquid discharges to sea from the European reprocessing plants, and discharges from nuclear installations located in the Baltic Sea area. The predicted water concentrations are in good agreement with the observations for both radionuclides; the mean predictive accuracy of the model is close to unity. For the top sediment and biota concentrations the agreement is less favourable. The predicted water inventory data compare well with the observed data for the two radionuclides. The inventories of 137 Cs and 90 Sr in the Baltic Sea in 1994 have been estimated at 3200 TBq and 370 TBq, respectively. (author)

  4. Predicting foliar biochemistry of tea (Camellia sinensis) using reflectance spectra measured at powder, leaf and canopy levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bian, Meng; Skidmore, Andrew K.; Schlerf, Martin; Wang, Tiejun; Liu, Yanfang; Zeng, Rong; Fei, Teng

    2013-04-01

    Some biochemical compounds are closely related with the quality of tea (Camellia sinensis (L.)). In this study, the concentration of these compounds including total tea polyphenols, free amino acids and soluble sugars were estimated using reflectance spectroscopy at three different levels: powder, leaf and canopy, with partial least squares regression. The focus of this study is to systematically compare the accuracy of tea quality estimations based on spectroscopy at three different levels. At the powder level, the average r2 between predictions and observations was 0.89 for polyphenols, 0.81 for amino acids and 0.78 for sugars, with relative root mean square errors (RMSE/mean) of 5.47%, 5.50% and 2.75%, respectively; at the leaf level, the average r2 decreased to 0.46-0.81 and the relative RMSE increased to 4.46-7.09%. Compared to the results yielded at the leaf level, the results from canopy spectra were slightly more accurate, yielding average r2 values of 0.83, 0.77 and 0.56 and relative RMSE of 6.79%, 5.73% and 4.03% for polyphenols, amino acids and sugars, respectively. We further identified wavelength channels that influenced the prediction model. For powder and leaves, some bands identified can be linked to the absorption features of chemicals of interest (1648 nm for phenolic, 1510 nm for amino acids, 2080 nm and 2270 nm for sugars), while more indirectly related wavelengths were found to be important at the canopy level for predictions of chemical compounds. Overall, the prediction accuracies achieved at canopy level in this study are encouraging for future study on tea quality estimated at the landscape scale using airborne and space-borne sensors.

  5. Integrating Non-Tidal Sea Level data from altimetry and tide gauges for coastal sea level prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Yongcun; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per

    2012-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to integrate Non-Tidal Sea Level (NSL) from the joint TOPEX, Jason-1 and Jason-2 satellite altimetry with tide gauge data at the west and north coast of the United Kingdom for coastal sea level prediction. The temporal correlation coefficient between altimetric...... NSLs and tide gauge data reaches a maximum higher than 90% for each gauge. The results show that the multivariate regression approach can efficiently integrate the two types of data in the coastal waters of the area. The Multivariate Regression Model is established by integrating the along-track NSL...... from the joint TOPEX/Jason-1/Jason-2 altimeters with that from eleven tide gauges. The model results give a maximum hindcast skill of 0.95, which means maximum 95% of NSL variance can be explained by the model. The minimum Root Mean Square Error (RMSe) between altimetric observations and model...

  6. County-level characteristics as predictors of dentists’ ECC counseling in the USA: a survey study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Transmission of Streptococcus mutans from mother-to-child can lead to Early Childhood Caries. A previous study identified characteristics and beliefs of general dentists about counseling pregnant women to reduce risk of infection and Early Childhood Caries. This study extends those findings with an analysis of county level factors. Methods In 2006, we surveyed 732 general dentists in Oregon, USA about dental care for pregnant women. Survey items asked about individual and practice characteristics. In the present study we matched those data to county level factors and used multinomial logistic regression to test the effects of the factors (i.e., dentist to population ratio, percentage of female dentists, percentage of females of childbearing age, and percentage of individuals living in poverty) on counseling behavior. Results County level factors were unrelated to counseling behavior when the models controlled for dentists' individual attitudes, beliefs, and practice level characteristics. The adjusted odds ratios for no counseling of pregnant patients (versus 100 percent counseling) were 1.1 (95% CI .8-1.7), 1.0 (1.0-1.1), 1.2 (.9-1.5), and 1.1 (1.0-1.2) for dentist/population ratio, percent female dentists, percent females of childbearing age, and percent in poverty, respectively Similar results were obtained when dentists who counseled some patients were compared to those counseling 100 percent of patients. Conclusions Community level factors do not appear to impact the individual counseling behavior of general dentists in Oregon, USA regarding the risk of maternal transmission of Early Childhood Caries. PMID:23688178

  7. County-level characteristics as predictors of dentists' ECC counseling in the USA: a survey study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milgrom, Peter; Huebner, Colleen E; Mancl, Lloyd A; Chi, Donald L; Garson, Gayle; Grembowski, David

    2013-05-20

    Transmission of Streptococcus mutans from mother-to-child can lead to Early Childhood Caries. A previous study identified characteristics and beliefs of general dentists about counseling pregnant women to reduce risk of infection and Early Childhood Caries. This study extends those findings with an analysis of county level factors. In 2006, we surveyed 732 general dentists in Oregon, USA about dental care for pregnant women. Survey items asked about individual and practice characteristics. In the present study we matched those data to county level factors and used multinomial logistic regression to test the effects of the factors (i.e., dentist to population ratio, percentage of female dentists, percentage of females of childbearing age, and percentage of individuals living in poverty) on counseling behavior. County level factors were unrelated to counseling behavior when the models controlled for dentists' individual attitudes, beliefs, and practice level characteristics. The adjusted odds ratios for no counseling of pregnant patients (versus 100 percent counseling) were 1.1 (95% CI .8-1.7), 1.0 (1.0-1.1), 1.2 (.9-1.5), and 1.1 (1.0-1.2) for dentist/population ratio, percent female dentists, percent females of childbearing age, and percent in poverty, respectively Similar results were obtained when dentists who counseled some patients were compared to those counseling 100 percent of patients. Community level factors do not appear to impact the individual counseling behavior of general dentists in Oregon, USA regarding the risk of maternal transmission of Early Childhood Caries.

  8. The predictive value of mean serum uric acid levels for developing prediabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qing; Bao, Xue; Meng, Ge; Liu, Li; Wu, Hongmei; Du, Huanmin; Shi, Hongbin; Xia, Yang; Guo, Xiaoyan; Liu, Xing; Li, Chunlei; Su, Qian; Gu, Yeqing; Fang, Liyun; Yu, Fei; Yang, Huijun; Yu, Bin; Sun, Shaomei; Wang, Xing; Zhou, Ming; Jia, Qiyu; Zhao, Honglin; Huang, Guowei; Song, Kun; Niu, Kaijun

    2016-08-01

    We aimed to assess the predictive value of mean serum uric acid (SUA) levels for incident prediabetes. Normoglycemic adults (n=39,353) were followed for a median of 3.0years. Prediabetes is defined as impaired fasting glucose (IFG), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), or impaired HbA1c (IA1c), based on the American Diabetes Association criteria. Serum SUA levels were measured annually. Four diagnostic strategies were used to detect prediabetes in four separate analyses (Analysis 1: IFG. Analysis 2: IFG+IGT. Analysis 3: IFG+IA1c. Analysis 4: IFG+IGT+IA1c). Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the relationship between SUA quintiles and prediabetes. C-statistic was additionally used in the final analysis to assess the accuracy of predictions based upon baseline SUA and mean SUA, respectively. After adjustment for potential confounders, the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of prediabetes for the highest versus lowest quintile of mean SUA were 1.22 (1.10, 1.36) in analysis 1; 1.59 (1.23, 2.05) in analysis 2; 1.62 (1.34, 1.95) in analysis 3 and 1.67 (1.31, 2.13) in analysis 4. In contrast, for baseline SUA, significance was only reached in analyses 3 and 4. Moreover, compared with baseline SUA, mean SUA value was associated with a significant increase in the C-statistic (Pprediabetes risk, and showed better predictive ability for prediabetes than baseline SUA. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. A cautionary note on decadal sea level pressure predictions from GCMs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Liess

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available A comparison of sea level pressure (SLP trends in a subset of seven Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP phase 5 general circulation models (GCM, namely decadal simulations with CCSM4, CanCM4, MPI-ESM-LR, FGOALS-g2, MIROC4h, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3, to their CMIP3 counterparts reveals an unrealistically strong forecast skill in CMIP3 models for trend predictions for 2001–2011 when using the 1979–2000 period to train the forecast. Boreal-winter SLP trends over five high-, mid-, and low-latitude zones were calculated over the 1979–2000 initialization period for each ensemble member and then ranked based on their performance relative to HadSLP2 observations. The same method is used to rank the ensemble members during the 2001–2011 period. In CMIP3, 17 out of 38 ensemble members retain their rank in the 2001–2011 hindcast period and 3 retain the neighboring rank. However, numbers are much lower in more recent CMIP5 decadal predictions over the similar 2001–2010 period when using the 1981–2000 period as initialization with the same number of ensembles. Different periods were used for CMIP3 and CMIP5 because although the 1979–2000 initialization is widely used for CMIP3, CMIP5 decadal predictions are only available for 30-year periods. The conclusion to consider the forecast skill in CMIP3 predictions during 2001–2011 as unrealistic is corroborated by comparisons to earlier periods from the 1960s to the 1980s in both CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations. Thus, although the 2001–2011 CMIP3 predictions show statistically significant forecast skill, this skill should be treated as a spurious result that is unlikely to be reproduced by newer more accurate GCMs.

  10. High level model predictive control for plug-and-play process control with stability guaranty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michelsen, Axel Gottlieb; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2010-01-01

    In this paper a method for designing a stabilizing high level model predictive controller for a hierarchical plug- and-play process is presented. This is achieved by abstracting the lower layers of the controller structure as low order models with uncertainty and by using a robust model predictive...... controller for generating the references for these. A simulation example, in which the actuators in a process control system are changed, is reported to show the potential of this approach for plug and play process control....

  11. Serum Reactive Oxygen Metabolite Levels Predict Severe Exacerbations of Asthma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamoto, Keitaro; Watanabe, Masato; Sada, Mitsuru; Inui, Toshiya; Nakamura, Masuo; Honda, Kojiro; Wada, Hiroo; Mikami, Yu; Matsuzaki, Hirotaka; Horie, Masafumi; Noguchi, Satoshi; Yamauchi, Yasuhiro; Koyama, Hikari; Kogane, Toshiyuki; Kohyama, Tadashi; Takizawa, Hajime

    2016-01-01

    Background and Purpose Bronchial asthma (BA) is a chronic airway disease characterized by airway hyperresponsiveness and remodeling, which are intimately linked to chronic airway inflammation. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) such as hydrogen peroxide are generated by inflammatory cells that are involved in the pathogenesis of BA. However, the role of ROS in the management of BA patients is not yet clear. We attempted to determine the role of ROS as a biomarker in the clinical setting of BA. Subjects and Methods We enrolled patients with BA from 2013 through 2015 and studied the degrees of asthma control, anti-asthma treatment, pulmonary function test results, fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO), serum reactive oxygen metabolite (ROM) levels, and serum levels of interleukin (IL)-6 and IL-8. Results We recruited 110 patients with BA. Serum ROM levels correlated with white blood cell (WBC) count (rs = 0.273, p = 0.004), neutrophil count (rs = 0.235, p = 0.014), CRP (rs = 0.403, p < 0.001), and IL-6 (rs = 0.339, p < 0.001). Serum ROM levels and IL-8 and CRP levels negatively correlated with %FEV1 (rs = -0.240, p = 0.012, rs = -0.362, p < 0.001, rs = -0.197, p = 0.039, respectively). Serum ROM levels were significantly higher in patients who experienced severe exacerbation within 3 months than in patients who did not (339 [302–381] vs. 376 [352–414] CARR U, p < 0.025). Receiver-operating characteristics analysis showed that ROM levels correlated significantly with the occurrence of severe exacerbation (area under the curve: 0.699, 95% CI: 0.597–0.801, p = 0.025). Conclusions Serum levels of ROM were significantly associated with the degrees of airway obstruction, WBC counts, neutrophil counts, IL-6, and severe exacerbations. This biomarker may be useful in predicting severe exacerbations of BA. PMID:27776186

  12. 78 FR 64973 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-30

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Geological Survey [GX14GG009950000] National Earthquake Prediction...: Pursuant to Public Law 96-472, the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) will hold a... Council shall advise the Director of the U.S. Geological Survey on proposed earthquake predictions, on the...

  13. Projected contributions of future wind farm development to community noise and annoyance levels in Ontario, Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whitfield Aslund, Melissa L.; Ollson, Christopher A.; Knopper, Loren D.

    2013-01-01

    Wind turbines produce sound during their operation; therefore, jurisdictions around the world have developed regulations regarding the placement of electricity generating wind farms with the intent of preventing unacceptable levels of ‘community noise’ in their vicinity. However, as survey results indicate that the relationship between wind turbine noise and annoyance may differ from noise-annoyance relationships for other common noise sources (e.g., rail, traffic), there are concerns that the application of general noise guidelines for wind turbines may lead to unacceptably high levels of annoyance in communities. In this study, previously published survey results that quantified wind turbine noise and self-reported annoyance were applied to the predicted noise levels (from turbines and transformers) for over 8000 receptors in the vicinity of 13 planned wind power developments in the province of Ontario, Canada. The results of this analysis indicate that the current wind turbine noise restrictions in Ontario will limit community exposure to wind turbine related noise such that levels of annoyance are unlikely to exceed previously established background levels of noise-related annoyance from other common noise sources. This provides valuable context that should be considered by policy-makers when evaluating the potential impacts of wind turbine noise on the community. -- highlights: •Wind turbine noise-annoyance relationship used to predict annoyance in Ontario. •Noise annoyance predicted to be <8% for non-participants <1 km from turbines. •Predicted levels of wind turbine noise annoyance similar to that from traffic noise. •Wind turbine noise annoyance not expected to exceed existing background levels

  14. Radon in dwellings the national radon survey Cork and Kerry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGarry, A.T.; Fennell, S.G.; Mackin, G.M.; Madden, J.S.

    1998-07-01

    This report presents the results of the third phase of the National Radon Survey carried out by the Radiological Protection Institute of Ireland. The counties included in this phase are Cork and Kerry. The average radon concentrations for the houses measured in these counties were 76 Bq/m 3 and 70 Bq/m 3 . The measurement data were grouped on the basis of the 10 km grid squares of the Irish National Grid System and used to predict the percentage of dwellings in each grid square which exceeds the Reference Level of 200 Bq/m 3 . Grid squares where this percentage is predicted to be 10% or higher are designated High Radon Areas. The health effects of exposure to high radon levels are discussed and recommendations are made regarding both new and existing dwellings. (author)

  15. Statistical Models for Predicting Threat Detection From Human Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Timothy; Amon, Mary J.; Bertenthal, Bennett I.

    2018-01-01

    Users must regularly distinguish between secure and insecure cyber platforms in order to preserve their privacy and safety. Mouse tracking is an accessible, high-resolution measure that can be leveraged to understand the dynamics of perception, categorization, and decision-making in threat detection. Researchers have begun to utilize measures like mouse tracking in cyber security research, including in the study of risky online behavior. However, it remains an empirical question to what extent real-time information about user behavior is predictive of user outcomes and demonstrates added value compared to traditional self-report questionnaires. Participants navigated through six simulated websites, which resembled either secure “non-spoof” or insecure “spoof” versions of popular websites. Websites also varied in terms of authentication level (i.e., extended validation, standard validation, or partial encryption). Spoof websites had modified Uniform Resource Locator (URL) and authentication level. Participants chose to “login” to or “back” out of each website based on perceived website security. Mouse tracking information was recorded throughout the task, along with task performance. After completing the website identification task, participants completed a questionnaire assessing their security knowledge and degree of familiarity with the websites simulated during the experiment. Despite being primed to the possibility of website phishing attacks, participants generally showed a bias for logging in to websites versus backing out of potentially dangerous sites. Along these lines, participant ability to identify spoof websites was around the level of chance. Hierarchical Bayesian logistic models were used to compare the accuracy of two-factor (i.e., website security and encryption level), survey-based (i.e., security knowledge and website familiarity), and real-time measures (i.e., mouse tracking) in predicting risky online behavior during phishing

  16. Statistical Models for Predicting Threat Detection From Human Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy Kelley

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Users must regularly distinguish between secure and insecure cyber platforms in order to preserve their privacy and safety. Mouse tracking is an accessible, high-resolution measure that can be leveraged to understand the dynamics of perception, categorization, and decision-making in threat detection. Researchers have begun to utilize measures like mouse tracking in cyber security research, including in the study of risky online behavior. However, it remains an empirical question to what extent real-time information about user behavior is predictive of user outcomes and demonstrates added value compared to traditional self-report questionnaires. Participants navigated through six simulated websites, which resembled either secure “non-spoof” or insecure “spoof” versions of popular websites. Websites also varied in terms of authentication level (i.e., extended validation, standard validation, or partial encryption. Spoof websites had modified Uniform Resource Locator (URL and authentication level. Participants chose to “login” to or “back” out of each website based on perceived website security. Mouse tracking information was recorded throughout the task, along with task performance. After completing the website identification task, participants completed a questionnaire assessing their security knowledge and degree of familiarity with the websites simulated during the experiment. Despite being primed to the possibility of website phishing attacks, participants generally showed a bias for logging in to websites versus backing out of potentially dangerous sites. Along these lines, participant ability to identify spoof websites was around the level of chance. Hierarchical Bayesian logistic models were used to compare the accuracy of two-factor (i.e., website security and encryption level, survey-based (i.e., security knowledge and website familiarity, and real-time measures (i.e., mouse tracking in predicting risky online behavior

  17. Statistical Models for Predicting Threat Detection From Human Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Timothy; Amon, Mary J; Bertenthal, Bennett I

    2018-01-01

    Users must regularly distinguish between secure and insecure cyber platforms in order to preserve their privacy and safety. Mouse tracking is an accessible, high-resolution measure that can be leveraged to understand the dynamics of perception, categorization, and decision-making in threat detection. Researchers have begun to utilize measures like mouse tracking in cyber security research, including in the study of risky online behavior. However, it remains an empirical question to what extent real-time information about user behavior is predictive of user outcomes and demonstrates added value compared to traditional self-report questionnaires. Participants navigated through six simulated websites, which resembled either secure "non-spoof" or insecure "spoof" versions of popular websites. Websites also varied in terms of authentication level (i.e., extended validation, standard validation, or partial encryption). Spoof websites had modified Uniform Resource Locator (URL) and authentication level. Participants chose to "login" to or "back" out of each website based on perceived website security. Mouse tracking information was recorded throughout the task, along with task performance. After completing the website identification task, participants completed a questionnaire assessing their security knowledge and degree of familiarity with the websites simulated during the experiment. Despite being primed to the possibility of website phishing attacks, participants generally showed a bias for logging in to websites versus backing out of potentially dangerous sites. Along these lines, participant ability to identify spoof websites was around the level of chance. Hierarchical Bayesian logistic models were used to compare the accuracy of two-factor (i.e., website security and encryption level), survey-based (i.e., security knowledge and website familiarity), and real-time measures (i.e., mouse tracking) in predicting risky online behavior during phishing attacks

  18. Estimating survival probabilities by exposure levels: utilizing vital statistics and complex survey data with mortality follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landsman, V; Lou, W Y W; Graubard, B I

    2015-05-20

    We present a two-step approach for estimating hazard rates and, consequently, survival probabilities, by levels of general categorical exposure. The resulting estimator utilizes three sources of data: vital statistics data and census data are used at the first step to estimate the overall hazard rate for a given combination of gender and age group, and cohort data constructed from a nationally representative complex survey with linked mortality records, are used at the second step to divide the overall hazard rate by exposure levels. We present an explicit expression for the resulting estimator and consider two methods for variance estimation that account for complex multistage sample design: (1) the leaving-one-out jackknife method, and (2) the Taylor linearization method, which provides an analytic formula for the variance estimator. The methods are illustrated with smoking and all-cause mortality data from the US National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files, and the proposed estimator is compared with a previously studied crude hazard rate estimator that uses survey data only. The advantages of a two-step approach and possible extensions of the proposed estimator are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Advantages and limitations of web-based surveys: evidence from a child mental health survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heiervang, Einar; Goodman, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Web-based surveys may have advantages related to the speed and cost of data collection as well as data quality. However, they may be biased by low and selective participation. We predicted that such biases would distort point-estimates such as average symptom level or prevalence but not patterns of associations with putative risk-factors. A structured psychiatric interview was administered to parents in two successive surveys of child mental health. In 2003, parents were interviewed face-to-face, whereas in 2006 they completed the interview online. In both surveys, interviews were preceded by paper questionnaires covering child and family characteristics. The rate of parents logging onto the web site was comparable to the response rate for face-to-face interviews, but the rate of full response (completing all sections of the interview) was much lower for web-based interviews. Full response was less frequent for non-traditional families, immigrant parents, and less educated parents. Participation bias affected point estimates of psychopathology but had little effect on associations with putative risk factors. The time and cost of full web-based interviews was only a quarter of that for face-to-face interviews. Web-based surveys may be performed faster and at lower cost than more traditional approaches with personal interviews. Selective participation seems a particular threat to point estimates of psychopathology, while patterns of associations are more robust.

  20. [Simplified indicator of socioeconomic status in short surveys: a proposal based on assets and services].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz-Acosta, Rodrigo; Shiba-Matsumoto, Andrey Ryo; Gutiérrez, Juan Pablo

    2015-01-01

    To develop a socioeconomic index for brief surveys that allows a classification in relation to a reference population with a parsimonious approach. A socioeconomic index was created using assets and use of services indicators to predict income level within a national representative survey of income (ENIGH, National Survey of Households Income and Expenditures) and then tested with data from a survey among key populations (men who have sex with men/transvestite, transgender, transsexual/female sex workers) and compared to an already published indicator. The concordance for quintiles 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 between the two indexes were 94, 94, 82, 83, and 89%, respectively. The Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was 0.85. The proposed parsimonious index captures the socioeconomic level heterogeneity in the MSM/TTT/FSW survey. The use of this index is suggested for short surveys because of the next advantages: a) it uses dichotomic variables; b) the variables used do not imply the fulfillment of any statistical assumption; c) it is easily calculated; d) it can be used for comparing groups.

  1. Defining a glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) level that predicts increased risk of penile implant infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habous, Mohamad; Tal, Raanan; Tealab, Alaa; Soliman, Tarek; Nassar, Mohammed; Mekawi, Zenhom; Mahmoud, Saad; Abdelwahab, Osama; Elkhouly, Mohamed; Kamr, Hatem; Remeah, Abdallah; Binsaleh, Saleh; Ralph, David; Mulhall, John

    2018-02-01

    To re-evaluate the role of diabetes mellitus (DM) as a risk factor for penile implant infection by exploring the association between glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels and penile implant infection rates and to define a threshold value that predicts implant infection. We conducted a multicentre prospective study including all patients undergoing penile implant surgery between 2009 and 2015. Preoperative, perioperative and postoperative management were identical for the entire cohort. Univariate analysis was performed to define predictors of implant infection. The HbA1c levels were analysed as continuous variables and sequential analysis was conducted using 0.5% increments to define a threshold level predicting implant infection. Multivariable analysis was performed with the following factors entered in the model: DM, HbA1C level, patient age, implant type, number of vascular risk factors (VRFs), presence of Peyronie's disease (PD), body mass index (BMI), and surgeon volume. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was generated to define the optimal HbA1C threshold for infection prediction. In all, 902 implant procedures were performed over the study period. The mean patient age was 56.6 years. The mean HbA1c level was 8.0%, with 81% of men having a HbA1c level of >6%. In all, 685 (76%) implants were malleable and 217 (24%) were inflatable devices; 302 (33.5%) patients also had a diagnosis of PD. The overall infection rate was 8.9% (80/902). Patients who had implant infection had significantly higher mean HbA1c levels, 9.5% vs 7.8% (P HbA1c level, we found infection rates were: 1.3% with HbA1c level of 9.5% (P HbA1c level, whilst a high-volume surgeon had a protective effect and was associated with a reduced infection risk. Using ROC analysis, we determined that a HbA1c threshold level of 8.5% predicted infection with a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 65%. Uncontrolled DM is associated with increased risk of infection after penile implant surgery

  2. Non-Cholesterol Sterol Levels Predict Hyperglycemia and Conversion to Type 2 Diabetes in Finnish Men

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cederberg, Henna; Gylling, Helena; Miettinen, Tatu A.; Paananen, Jussi; Vangipurapu, Jagadish; Pihlajamäki, Jussi; Kuulasmaa, Teemu; Stančáková, Alena; Smith, Ulf; Kuusisto, Johanna; Laakso, Markku

    2013-01-01

    We investigated the levels of non-cholesterol sterols as predictors for the development of hyperglycemia (an increase in the glucose area under the curve in an oral glucose tolerance test) and incident type 2 diabetes in a 5-year follow-up study of a population-based cohort of Finnish men (METSIM Study, N = 1,050) having non-cholesterol sterols measured at baseline. Additionally we determined the association of 538,265 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) with non-cholesterol sterol levels in a cross-sectional cohort of non-diabetic offspring of type 2 diabetes (the Kuopio cohort of the EUGENE2 Study, N = 273). We found that in a cross-sectional METSIM Study the levels of sterols indicating cholesterol absorption were reduced as a function of increasing fasting glucose levels, whereas the levels of sterols indicating cholesterol synthesis were increased as a function of increasing 2-hour glucose levels. A cholesterol synthesis marker desmosterol significantly predicted an increase, and two absorption markers (campesterol and avenasterol) a decrease in the risk of hyperglycemia and incident type 2 diabetes in a 5-year follow-up of the METSIM cohort, mainly attributable to insulin sensitivity. A SNP of ABCG8 was associated with fasting plasma glucose levels in a cross-sectional study but did not predict hyperglycemia or incident type 2 diabetes. In conclusion, the levels of some, but not all non-cholesterol sterols are markers of the worsening of hyperglycemia and type 2 diabetes. PMID:23840693

  3. 78 FR 11821 - Takes of Marine Mammals Incidental to Specified Activities; Low-Energy Marine Geophysical Survey...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-20

    ... engines and an 80 horsepower (hp) Schottel bowthruster. Electrical power is provided by two Caterpillar... (ms). The sub-bottom profiler is operated continuously during survey operations. Power levels of the... receiving animals (hearing, motivation, experience, demography) and is also difficult to predict (Richardson...

  4. Work-Family Balance and Energy: A Day-Level Study on Recovery Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanz-Vergel, Ana Isabel; Demerouti, Evangelia; Moreno-Jimenez, Bernardo; Mayo, Margarita

    2010-01-01

    The present study examines whether daily recovery inhibiting and enhancing conditions predict day-levels of work-family conflict (WFC), work-family facilitation (WFF), exhaustion and vigor. Forty-nine individuals from various professional backgrounds in Spain provided questionnaire and daily survey measures over a period of five working days.…

  5. Ecological survey for the siting of the Mixed and Low-Level Waste Disposal Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoskinson, R.L.

    1994-05-01

    This report summarizes the results of field ecological surveys conducted by the Center for Integrated Environmental Technologies (CIET) on the Idaho National Engineering Lab. (INEL) at two candidate locations for the siting of the Mixed and Low-Level Waste Disposal Facility (MLLWDF). The purpose of these surveys was to comply with all Federal laws and Executive Orders to identify and evaluate any potential environmental impacts because of the project. The boundaries of the candidate locations were marked with blaze-orange lath survey marker stakes by the project management. Global Positioning in System (GPS) measurements of the marker stakes were made, and input to the Arc/Info geographic information system (GIS). Field surveys were conducted to assess any potential impact to any important species, important habitats, and to any environmental study areas. The GIS location data were overlayed onto the INEL vegetation map and an analysis of vegetation classes on the locations was done. Two species of rare vascular plants have previously been reported to occur in the vicinity of the candidate locations. Two C2 species, the ferruginous hawk (Buteo regalis) and the loggerhead shrike (Lanius ludovicianus) would also be expected to frequent the candidate locations. No significant ecological impact is anticipated if the MLLWDF were constructed on either candidate location. However, both candidate locations are in the central area of the INEL where there is minimal disturbance to the ecosystem by facilities or humans

  6. Survey of degradation modes of candidate materials for high-level radioactive-waste disposal containers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, J.C.; McCright, R.D.; Kass, J.N.

    1988-06-01

    Three iron- to nickel-based austenitic alloys and three copper-based alloys are being considered as candidate materials for the fabrication of high-level radioactive-waste disposal containers. The austenitic alloys are Types 304L and 316L stainless steels and the high-nickel material Alloy 825. The copper-based alloys are CDA 102 (oxygen-free copper), CDA 613 (Cu-7Al), and CDA 715 (Cu-30Ni). Waste in the forms of both spent fuel assemblies from reactors and borosilicate glass will be sent to the prospective repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The decay of radionuclides will result in the generation of substantial heat and gamma radiation. Container materials may undergo any of several modes of degradation in this environment, including undesirable phase transformations due to a lack of phase stability; atmospheric oxidation; general aqueous corrosion; pitting; crevice corrosion; intergranular stress corrosion cracking; and transgranular stress corrosion cracking. Problems specific to welds, such as hot cracking, may also occur. A survey of the literature has been prepared as part of the process of selecting, from among the candidates, a material that is adequate for repository conditions. The modes of degradation are discussed in detail in the survey to determine which apply to the candidate alloys and the extent to which they may actually occur. The eight volumes of the survey are summarized in Sections 1 through 8 of this overview. The conclusions drawn from the survey are also given in this overview

  7. Sci-Thur PM – Colourful Interactions: Highlights 07: Canadian Computed Tomography Survey: National Diagnostic Reference Levels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wardlaw, Graeme M; Martel, Narine [Consumer & Clinical Radiation Protection Bureau / Health Canada (Canada)

    2016-08-15

    Purpose: The Canadian Computed (CT) Tomography Survey sought to collect CT technology and dose index data (CTDI and DLP) at the national level in order to establish national diagnostic reference levels (DRLs) for seven common CT examinations of standard-sized adults and pediatric patients. Methods: A single survey booklet (consisting of four sections) was mailed to and completed for each participating CT scanner. Survey sections collected data on (i) General facility and scanner information, (ii) routine protocols (as available), (iii) individual patient data (as applied) and (iv) manual CTDI measurements. Results: Dose index (CTDIvol and DLP) and associated patient data from 24 280 individual patient exam sequences was analyzed for seven common CT examinations performed in Canada: Adult Head, Chest, Abdomen/Pelvis, and Chest/Abdomen/Pelvis, and Pediatric Head, Chest, and Abdomen. Pediatric examination data was sub-divided into three age ranges: 0–3, 3–7 and 7–13 years. DRLs (75th percentile of dose index distributions) were found for all thirteen groups. Further analysis also permitted segmentation of examination data into 8 sub-groups, whose dose index data was displayed along with group histograms – showing relative contribution of axial vs. helical, contrast use (C+ vs. C-), and application of fixed current vs. dose reduction (DR) – 75th percentiles of DR sub-groups were, in almost all cases, lower than whole group (examination) DRLs. Conclusions: The analysis and summaries presented in the pending survey report can serve to aid local CT imaging optimization efforts within Canada and also contribute further to international efforts in radiation protection of patients.

  8. Predicting The Type Of Pregnancy Using Flexible Discriminate Analysis And Artificial Neural Networks: A Comparison Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hooman, A.; Mohammadzadeh, M.

    2008-01-01

    Some medical and epidemiological surveys have been designed to predict a nominal response variable with several levels. With regard to the type of pregnancy there are four possible states: wanted, unwanted by wife, unwanted by husband and unwanted by couple. In this paper, we have predicted the type of pregnancy, as well as the factors influencing it using three different models and comparing them. Regarding the type of pregnancy with several levels, we developed a multinomial logistic regression, a neural network and a flexible discrimination based on the data and compared their results using tow statistical indices: Surface under curve (ROC) and kappa coefficient. Based on these tow indices, flexible discrimination proved to be a better fit for prediction on data in comparison to other methods. When the relations among variables are complex, one can use flexible discrimination instead of multinomial logistic regression and neural network to predict the nominal response variables with several levels in order to gain more accurate predictions

  9. Predicting Patterns of Grammatical Complexity across Language Exam Task Types and Proficiency Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biber, Douglas; Gray, Bethany; Staples, Shelley

    2016-01-01

    In the present article, we explore the extent to which previous research on register variation can be used to predict spoken/written task-type variation as well as differences across score levels in the context of a major standardized language exam (TOEFL iBT). Specifically, we carry out two sets of linguistic analyses based on a large corpus of…

  10. Low-Complexity Model Predictive Control of Single-Phase Three-Level Rectifiers with Unbalanced Load

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Junpeng; Song, Wensheng; Wang, Xiongfei

    2018-01-01

    The fluctuation of the neutral-point potential in single-phase three-level rectifiers leads to coupling between the line current regulation and dc-link voltage balancing, deteriorating the quality of line current. For addressing this issue, this paper proposes a low-complexity model predictive...

  11. Hyaluronic acid levels predict risk of hepatic encephalopathy and liver-related death in HIV/viral hepatitis coinfected patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peters, Lars; Mocroft, Amanda; Soriano, Vincent

    2013-01-01

    Whereas it is well established that various soluble biomarkers can predict level of liver fibrosis, their ability to predict liver-related clinical outcomes is less clearly established, in particular among HIV/viral hepatitis co-infected persons. We investigated plasma hyaluronic acid's (HA......) ability to predict risk of liver-related events (LRE; hepatic coma or liver-related death) in the EuroSIDA study....

  12. Performance of small cluster surveys and the clustered LQAS design to estimate local-level vaccination coverage in Mali.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minetti, Andrea; Riera-Montes, Margarita; Nackers, Fabienne; Roederer, Thomas; Koudika, Marie Hortense; Sekkenes, Johanne; Taconet, Aurore; Fermon, Florence; Touré, Albouhary; Grais, Rebecca F; Checchi, Francesco

    2012-10-12

    Estimation of vaccination coverage at the local level is essential to identify communities that may require additional support. Cluster surveys can be used in resource-poor settings, when population figures are inaccurate. To be feasible, cluster samples need to be small, without losing robustness of results. The clustered LQAS (CLQAS) approach has been proposed as an alternative, as smaller sample sizes are required. We explored (i) the efficiency of cluster surveys of decreasing sample size through bootstrapping analysis and (ii) the performance of CLQAS under three alternative sampling plans to classify local VC, using data from a survey carried out in Mali after mass vaccination against meningococcal meningitis group A. VC estimates provided by a 10 × 15 cluster survey design were reasonably robust. We used them to classify health areas in three categories and guide mop-up activities: i) health areas not requiring supplemental activities; ii) health areas requiring additional vaccination; iii) health areas requiring further evaluation. As sample size decreased (from 10 × 15 to 10 × 3), standard error of VC and ICC estimates were increasingly unstable. Results of CLQAS simulations were not accurate for most health areas, with an overall risk of misclassification greater than 0.25 in one health area out of three. It was greater than 0.50 in one health area out of two under two of the three sampling plans. Small sample cluster surveys (10 × 15) are acceptably robust for classification of VC at local level. We do not recommend the CLQAS method as currently formulated for evaluating vaccination programmes.

  13. Use of brain lactate levels to predict outcome after perinatal asphyxia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leth, H; Toft, P.B.; Peitersen, Birgit

    1996-01-01

    Perinatal asphyxia is an important cause of neurological disability, but early prediction of outcome can be difficult. We performed proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) and global cerebral blood flow measurements by xenon-133 clearance in 16 infants with evidence of perinatal asphyxia...... neurological deficits and the rest seemed to be progressing normally at neurodevelopmental follow-up at 1 year of age. A significant correlation was found between initial brain lactate levels and severe outcome (p = 0.0003) just as between cerebral hyperperfusion (mean cerebral blood flow (CBF) 86 ml(100 g)-1...

  14. Cancer risk in humans predicted by increased levels of chromosomal aberrations in lymphocytes: Nordic study group on the health risk of chromosome damage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hagmar, L; Brøgger, A; Hansteen, I L

    1994-01-01

    Cytogenetic assays in peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBL) have been used extensively to survey the exposure of humans to genotoxic agents. The conceptual basis for this has been the hypothesis that the extent of genetic damage in PBL reflects critical events for carcinogenic processes in target...... tissues. Until now, no follow-up studies have been performed to assess the predictive value of these methods for subsequent cancer risk. In an ongoing Nordic cohort study of cancer incidence, 3182 subjects were examined between 1970 and 1988 for chromosomal aberrations (CA), sister chromatid exchange.......0009) in CA strata with regard to subsequent cancer risk. The point estimates of the standardized incidence ratio in the three CA strata were 0.9, 0.7, and 2.1, respectively. Thus, an increased level of chromosome breakage appears to be a relevant biomarker of future cancer risk....

  15. Predicting dropout using student- and school-level factors: An ecological perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Laura; Kiperman, Sarah; Esch, Rachel C; Leroux, Audrey J; Truscott, Stephen D

    2017-03-01

    High school dropout has been associated with negative outcomes, including increased rates of unemployment, incarceration, and mortality. Dropout rates vary significantly depending on individual and environmental factors. The purpose of our study was to use an ecological perspective to concurrently explore student- and school-level predictors associated with dropout for the purpose of better understanding how to prevent it. We used the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 dataset. Participants included 14,106 sophomores across 684 public and private schools. We identified variables of interest based on previous research on dropout and implemented hierarchical generalized linear modeling. In the final model, significant student-level predictors included academic achievement, retention, sex, family socioeconomic status (SES), and extracurricular involvement. Significant school-level predictors included school SES and school size. Race/ethnicity, special education status, born in the United States, English as first language, school urbanicity, and school region did not significantly predict dropout after controlling for the aforementioned predictors. Implications for prevention and intervention efforts within a multitiered intervention model are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. Reliability and Validity of a Survey of Cat Caregivers on Their Cats’ Socialization Level in the Cat’s Normal Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret Slater

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Stray cats routinely enter animal welfare organizations each year and shelters are challenged with determining the level of human socialization these cats may possess as quickly as possible. However, there is currently no standard process to guide this determination. This study describes the development and validation of a caregiver survey designed to be filled out by a cat’s caregiver so it accurately describes a cat’s personality, background, and full range of behavior with people when in its normal environment. The results from this survey provided the basis for a socialization score that ranged from unsocialized to well socialized with people. The quality of the survey was evaluated based on inter-rater and test-retest reliability and internal consistency and estimates of construct and criterion validity. In general, our results showed moderate to high levels of inter-rater (median of 0.803, range 0.211–0.957 and test-retest agreement (median 0.92, range 0.211–0.999. Cronbach’s alpha showed high internal consistency (0.962. Estimates of validity did not highlight any major shortcomings. This survey will be used to develop and validate an effective assessment process that accurately differentiates cats by their socialization levels towards humans based on direct observation of cats’ behavior in an animal shelter.

  17. Subseasonal to Seasonal Predictions of U.S. West Coast High Water Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khouakhi, A.; Villarini, G.; Zhang, W.; Slater, L. J.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme sea levels pose a significant threat to coastal communities, ecosystems, and assets, as they are conducive to coastal flooding, coastal erosion and inland salt-water intrusion. As sea levels continue to rise, these sea level extremes - including occasional minor coastal flooding experienced during high tide (nuisance floods) - are of concern. Extreme sea levels are increasing at many locations around the globe and have been attributed largely to rising mean sea levels associated with intra-seasonal to interannual climate processes such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, intra-seasonal to seasonal probabilistic forecasts of high water levels are computed at the Toke Point tide gage station on the US west coast. We first identify the main climate drivers that are responsible for high water levels and examine their predictability using General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). These drivers are then used to develop a probabilistic framework for the seasonal forecasting of high water levels. We focus on the climate controls on the frequency of high water levels using the number of exceedances above the 99.5th percentile and above the nuisance flood level established by the National Weather Service. Our findings indicate good forecast skill at the shortest lead time, with the skill that decreases as we increase the lead time. In general, these models aptly capture the year-to-year variability in the observational records.

  18. The German clinical risk management survey for hospitals: Implementation levels and areas for improvement in 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manser, Tanja; Frings, Janina; Heuser, Gregory; Mc Dermott, Fiona

    2016-01-01

    Despite the growing recognition of the need to implement systematic approaches for managing the risks associated with healthcare, few studies have investigated the level of implementation for clinical risk management (CRM) at a national level. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the current level of CRM implementation in German hospitals and to explore differences across hospital types. From March to June 2015, persons responsible for CRM in 2,617 hospitals and rehabilitation clinics in Germany were invited to participate in a voluntary online survey assessing the level of implementation for various aspects of CRM: CRM strategy, structures and processes; risk assessment (risk identification, risk analysis, risk evaluation) with a focus on incident reporting systems; risk mitigation measures; and risk monitoring and reporting. 572 hospitals participated in the survey (response rate 22 %). Most of these hospitals had a formalised, binding CRM strategy (72 %). 66 % had a centralised and 34 % a decentralised CRM structure. We also found that, despite a broad range of risk assessment methods being applied, there was a lack of integration of risk information from different data sources. Hospitals also reported a high level of implementation of critical incident reporting systems with a strong preference for local (74 %) over transorganisational systems. This study provides relevant data to inform targeted interventions concerning CRM implementation at a national level and to consider the specific context of different types of hospitals more carefully in this process. The approach to CRM assessment illustrated in this article could be the basis of a system for monitoring CRM over time and, thus, for evaluating the impact of strategy decisions at the policy level on CRM development. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

  19. Ambulation in adults with myelomeningocele. Is it possible to predict the level of ambulation in early life?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seitzberg, A.; Lind, M.; Biering-Sørensen, Fin

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the prediction of ambulation in adults with myelomeningocele from muscle strength testing and ambulation in early life. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fifty-two myelomeningocele (MMC) individuals at the age 18-37 years at follow-up were studied....... Information on muscle strength and ambulatory function in early life was retrieved from medical records. The motor levels determined by the muscle strength were used to predict ambulatory function later in life. At follow-up, a clinical examination was performed. RESULTS: Of 20 MMC individuals assessed...... life than predicted. Good strength in quadriceps muscles gave significant better prospect for adult walking. Of the 52 participants, 41 retained their ambulation status from 5-8 years of age. CONCLUSION: For MMC individuals with motor levels L3-L5, adult ambulatory function cannot be determined from...

  20. Radon in dwellings the national radon survey Galway and Mayo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGarry, A.T.; Fennell, S.G.; Mackin, G.M.; Madden, J.S.; O'Colmain, M.

    1999-07-01

    This report presents the results of the final phase of the National Radon Survey carried out by the Radiological Protection Institute of Ireland. The counties included in this phase are Galway and Mayo. The average radon concentrations for the houses measured in these counties were 112 Bq/m 3 and 100 Bq/m 3 , respectively. The measurement data were grouped on the basis of the 10 km grid squares of the Irish National Grid System and used to predict the percentage of dwellings in each grid square which exceeds the Reference Level of 200 Bq/m 3 . Grid squares where this percentage is predicted to be 10% or higher are designated High Radon Areas. The health effects of exposure to high radon levels are discussed and recommendations are made regarding both new and existing dwellings. (author)

  1. Some Comparisons of Measured and Predicted Primary Radiation Levels in the Aagesta Power Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aalto, E; Sandlin, R; Krell, Aa

    1968-05-15

    Neutron fluxes and gamma exposure rates in the primary shields of the Aagesta nuclear plant have been measured and the results compared with values predicted during shield design, and with values obtained later by the NRN bulk shielding code. The input data for the problems are given. The radial predictions are conservative by a factor of not more than 2 close to the reactor and by an unknown, higher factor further out. The conservatism is explainable by the differences between the true local conditions and core power distributions and those assumed in the predictions. The axial flux levels based on streaming calculations are found to agree quite well with the estimated values. The conservatism here is not so large and it seems to be necessary to be very careful when handling streaming problems. The experience gained shows that a power plant is less suitable for studying the accuracy of the shield design codes as such, but the practical results from the combined application of massive shield codes and void streaming predictions to complicated problems give information about the true degree of conservatism present.

  2. Hemoglobin and hematocrit levels in the prediction of complicated Crohn's disease behavior--a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieder, Florian; Paul, Gisela; Schnoy, Elisabeth; Schleder, Stephan; Wolf, Alexandra; Kamm, Florian; Dirmeier, Andrea; Strauch, Ulrike; Obermeier, Florian; Lopez, Rocio; Achkar, Jean-Paul; Rogler, Gerhard; Klebl, Frank

    2014-01-01

    Markers that predict the occurrence of a complicated disease behavior in patients with Crohn's disease (CD) can permit a more aggressive therapeutic regimen for patients at risk. The aim of this cohort study was to test the blood levels of hemoglobin (Hgb) and hematocrit (Hct) for the prediction of complicated CD behavior and CD related surgery in an adult patient population. Blood samples of 62 CD patients of the German Inflammatory Bowel Disease-network "Kompetenznetz CED" were tested for the levels of Hgb and Hct prior to the occurrence of complicated disease behavior or CD related surgery. The relation of these markers and clinical events was studied using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and adjusted COX-proportional hazard regression models. The median follow-up time was 55.8 months. Of the 62 CD patients without any previous complication or surgery 34% developed a complication and/or underwent CD related surgery. Low Hgb or Hct levels were independent predictors of a shorter time to occurrence of the first complication or CD related surgery. This was true for early as well as late occurring complications. Stable low Hgb or Hct during serial follow-up measurements had a higher frequency of complications compared to patients with a stable normal Hgb or Hct, respectively. Determination of Hgb or Hct in complication and surgery naïve CD patients might serve as an additional tool for the prediction of complicated disease behavior.

  3. The Usability of Noise Level from Rock Cutting for the Prediction of Physico-Mechanical Properties of Rocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delibalta, M. S.; Kahraman, S.; Comakli, R.

    2015-11-01

    Because the indirect tests are easier and cheaper than the direct tests, the prediction of rock properties from the indirect testing methods is important especially for the preliminary investigations. In this study, the predictability of the physico-mechanical rock properties from the noise level measured during cutting rock with diamond saw was investigated. Noise measurement test, uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) test, Brazilian tensile strength (BTS) test, point load strength (Is) test, density test, and porosity test were carried out on 54 different rock types in the laboratory. The results were statistically analyzed to derive estimation equations. Strong correlations between the noise level and the mechanical rock properties were found. The relations follow power functions. Increasing rock strength increases the noise level. Density and porosity also correlated strongly with the noise level. The relations follow linear functions. Increasing density increases the noise level while increasing porosity decreases the noise level. The developed equations are valid for the rocks with a compressive strength below 150 MPa. Concluding remark is that the physico-mechanical rock properties can reliably be estimated from the noise level measured during cutting the rock with diamond saw.

  4. Comparing two remote video survey methods for spatial predictions of the distribution and environmental niche suitability of demersal fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galaiduk, Ronen; Radford, Ben T; Wilson, Shaun K; Harvey, Euan S

    2017-12-15

    Information on habitat associations from survey data, combined with spatial modelling, allow the development of more refined species distribution modelling which may identify areas of high conservation/fisheries value and consequentially improve conservation efforts. Generalised additive models were used to model the probability of occurrence of six focal species after surveys that utilised two remote underwater video sampling methods (i.e. baited and towed video). Models developed for the towed video method had consistently better predictive performance for all but one study species although only three models had a good to fair fit, and the rest were poor fits, highlighting the challenges associated with modelling habitat associations of marine species in highly homogenous, low relief environments. Models based on baited video dataset regularly included large-scale measures of structural complexity, suggesting fish attraction to a single focus point by bait. Conversely, models based on the towed video data often incorporated small-scale measures of habitat complexity and were more likely to reflect true species-habitat relationships. The cost associated with use of the towed video systems for surveying low-relief seascapes was also relatively low providing additional support for considering this method for marine spatial ecological modelling.

  5. All Inclusive Education Secondary Education Level Effects Of Tourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Levent Tolay

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the effects of tourism education at secondary level were investigated for all-inclusive system (AIS that is applying to the tourism sector in Turkey. For this purpose, two questionnaire surveys were conducted over two groups. A negative prediction about the all-inclusive system is concluded due to research of trainer stuff that can not educate on quality competency-based personal. But it is understood that students that are directly or indirectly into to this system are not participating at the same rate level.

  6. Post-Primary Students' Images of Mathematics: Findings from a Survey of Irish Ordinary Level Mathematics Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Ciara; Stynes, Martin; O'Donoghue, John

    2016-01-01

    A questionnaire survey was carried out as part of a PhD research study to investigate the image of mathematics held by post-primary students in Ireland. The study focused on students in fifth year of post-primary education studying ordinary level mathematics for the Irish Leaving Certificate examination--the final examination for students in…

  7. Controller Strategies for Automation Tool Use under Varying Levels of Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morey, Susan; Prevot, Thomas; Mercer, Joey; Martin, Lynne; Bienert, Nancy; Cabrall, Christopher; Hunt, Sarah; Homola, Jeffrey; Kraut, Joshua

    2013-01-01

    A human-in-the-loop simulation was conducted to examine the effects of varying levels of trajectory prediction uncertainty on air traffic controller workload and performance, as well as how strategies and the use of decision support tools change in response. This paper focuses on the strategies employed by two controllers from separate teams who worked in parallel but independently under identical conditions (airspace, arrival traffic, tools) with the goal of ensuring schedule conformance and safe separation for a dense arrival flow in en route airspace. Despite differences in strategy and methods, both controllers achieved high levels of schedule conformance and safe separation. Overall, results show that trajectory uncertainties introduced by wind and aircraft performance prediction errors do not affect the controllers' ability to manage traffic. Controller strategies were fairly robust to changes in error, though strategies were affected by the amount of delay to absorb (scheduled time of arrival minus estimated time of arrival). Using the results and observations, this paper proposes an ability to dynamically customize the display of information including delay time based on observed error to better accommodate different strategies and objectives.

  8. Performance of small cluster surveys and the clustered LQAS design to estimate local-level vaccination coverage in Mali

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minetti Andrea

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimation of vaccination coverage at the local level is essential to identify communities that may require additional support. Cluster surveys can be used in resource-poor settings, when population figures are inaccurate. To be feasible, cluster samples need to be small, without losing robustness of results. The clustered LQAS (CLQAS approach has been proposed as an alternative, as smaller sample sizes are required. Methods We explored (i the efficiency of cluster surveys of decreasing sample size through bootstrapping analysis and (ii the performance of CLQAS under three alternative sampling plans to classify local VC, using data from a survey carried out in Mali after mass vaccination against meningococcal meningitis group A. Results VC estimates provided by a 10 × 15 cluster survey design were reasonably robust. We used them to classify health areas in three categories and guide mop-up activities: i health areas not requiring supplemental activities; ii health areas requiring additional vaccination; iii health areas requiring further evaluation. As sample size decreased (from 10 × 15 to 10 × 3, standard error of VC and ICC estimates were increasingly unstable. Results of CLQAS simulations were not accurate for most health areas, with an overall risk of misclassification greater than 0.25 in one health area out of three. It was greater than 0.50 in one health area out of two under two of the three sampling plans. Conclusions Small sample cluster surveys (10 × 15 are acceptably robust for classification of VC at local level. We do not recommend the CLQAS method as currently formulated for evaluating vaccination programmes.

  9. Does stigma predict a belief in dealing with depression alone?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Kathleen M; Crisp, Dimity A; Jorm, Anthony F; Christensen, Helen

    2011-08-01

    Community surveys indicate that many people with depressive disorders do not obtain professional help and that a preference for self-reliance is an important factor in this treatment gap. The current study sought to investigate whether stigmatising attitudes predict a belief in the helpfulness of dealing with depression without external assistance. Data were collected as part of a national household survey of 2000 Australian adults aged 18 years and above. Participants were presented with either a vignette depicting depression (n=1001) or a vignette depicting depression with suicidal ideation (n=999) and asked if it would be helpful or harmful to deal alone with the problem. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to determine if belief in dealing with depression alone was predicted by personal stigma, perceived stigma or sociodemographic characteristics. Higher levels of personal stigma independently predicted a belief in the helpfulness of dealing alone with both depression and depression with suicidal ideation. By contrast, lower levels of perceived stigma were associated with a belief in the helpfulness of dealing alone with depression without suicidal ideation. Personal stigma is associated with a belief in the helpfulness of self-reliance in coping with depression. Public health programs should consider the possibility that a belief in self-reliance is partly attributable to stigma. The findings also point to the potential importance of providing evidence-based self-help programs for those who believe in self-care. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Individual variation in baseline and stress-induced corticosterone and prolactin levels predicts parental effort by nesting mourning doves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, David A.; Vleck, Carol M.; Otis, David L.

    2009-01-01

    Endocrine systems have an important mechanistic role in structuring life-history trade-offs. During breeding, individual variation in prolactin (PRL) and corticosterone (CORT) levels affects behavioral and physiological processes that drive trade-offs between reproduction and self-maintenance. We examined patterns in baseline (BL) and stress induced (SI; level following a standard capture-restraint protocol) levels of PRL and CORT for breeding mourning doves (Zenaida macroura). We determined whether the relationship of adult condition and parental effort to hormone levels in wild birds was consistent with life-history predictions. Both BL PRL and BL CORT level in adults were positively related to nestling weight at early nestling ages, consistent with the prediction of a positive relationship of hormone levels to current parental effort of adults and associated increased energy demand. Results are consistent with the two hormones acting together at baseline levels to limit negative effects of CORT on reproduction while maintaining beneficial effects such as increased foraging for nestling feeding. Our data did not support predictions that SI responses would vary in response to nestling or adult condition. The magnitude of CORT response in the parents to our capture-restraint protocol was negatively correlated with subsequent parental effort. Average nestling weights for adults with the highest SI CORT response were on average 10–15% lighter than expected for their age in follow-up visits after the stress event. Our results demonstrated a relationship between individual hormone levels and within population variation in parental effort and suggested that hormonal control plays an important role in structuring reproductive decisions for mourning doves.

  11. Multiagency radiation survey and site investigation manual (MARSSIM): Survey design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abelquist, E.W.; Berger, J.D.

    1996-01-01

    This paper describes the MultiAgency Radiation Survey and Site Investigation Manual (MARSSIM) strategy for designing a final status survey. The purpose of the final status survey is to demonstrate that release criteria established by the regulatory agency have been met. Survey design begins with identification of the contaminants and determination of whether the radionuclides of concern exist in background. The decommissioned site is segregated into Class 1, Class 2, and Class 3 areas, based on contamination potential, and each area is further divided into survey units. Appropriate reference areas for indoor and outdoor background measurements are selected. Survey instrumentation and techniques are selected in order to assure that the instrumentation is capable of detecting the contamination at the derived concentration guideline level (DCGL). Survey reference systems are established and the number of survey data points is determined-with the required number of data points distributed on a triangular grid Pattern. Two suitistical tests are used to evaluate data from final status surveys. For contaminants that are b, present in background, the Wilcoxon Rank Sum test is used; for contaminants that are not present in background, the Wilcoxon Signed Rank (or Sign) test is used. The number of data points needed to satisfy these nonparametric tests is based on the contaminant DCGL value, the expected Standard deviation of the contaminant in background and in the survey unit, and the acceptable probability of making Type I and Type II decision errors. The MARSSIM also requires a reasonable level of assurance that any small areas of elevated residual radioactivity that could be significant relative to regulatory limits are not missed during the final status survey. Measurements and sampling on a specified grid size are used to obtain an adequate assurance level that small locations of elevated radioactivity will Still satisfy DCGLs-applicable to small areas

  12. Correlation of microRNA levels during hypoxia with predicted target mRNAs through genome-wide microarray analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Page Grier P

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Low levels of oxygen in tissues, seen in situations such as chronic lung disease, necrotic tumors, and high altitude exposures, initiate a signaling pathway that results in active transcription of genes possessing a hypoxia response element (HRE. The aim of this study was to investigate whether a change in miRNA expression following hypoxia could account for changes in the cellular transcriptome based on currently available miRNA target prediction tools. Methods To identify changes induced by hypoxia, we conducted mRNA- and miRNA-array-based experiments in HT29 cells, and performed comparative analysis of the resulting data sets based on multiple target prediction algorithms. To date, few studies have investigated an environmental perturbation for effects on genome-wide miRNA levels, or their consequent influence on mRNA output. Results Comparison of miRNAs with predicted mRNA targets indicated a lower level of concordance than expected. We did, however, find preliminary evidence of combinatorial regulation of mRNA expression by miRNA. Conclusion Target prediction programs and expression profiling techniques do not yet adequately represent the complexity of miRNA-mediated gene repression, and new methods may be required to better elucidate these pathways. Our data suggest the physiologic impact of miRNAs on cellular transcription results from a multifaceted network of miRNA and mRNA relationships, working together in an interconnected system and in context of hundreds of RNA species. The methods described here for comparative analysis of cellular miRNA and mRNA will be useful for understanding genome wide regulatory responsiveness and refining miRNA predictive algorithms.

  13. Longitudinal prediction of sexually transmitted diseases among adolescents: results from a national survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosby, R; Leichliter, J S; Brackbill, R

    2000-05-01

    Although adolescent use of condoms has been increasing, incidence of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) among young people remains high. To identify adolescent behavioral risk factors for acquiring STDs, this study assessed adolescent self-reports of acquired chlamydia, gonorrhea, syphilis, and trichomoniasis within 1 year after a baseline interview. We used data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health for this study. Data were collected in the homes of survey respondents, using audio-computer-assisted self-interview (audio-CASI) technology and interviews. Participants were enrolled in grades 7-11 from 134 U.S. schools. A cohort of 4593 sexually experienced adolescents was followed for 1 year. We conducted separate analyses for both genders. About 3.1% of the male adolescents and nearly 4.7% of the female adolescents reported having had at least one STD after the baseline interview. For both genders, self-reported STD infection before baseline interview was the best predictor of self-reported STD infection 1 year after baseline interview. Female adolescents were more likely to report diagnosis with an STD after baseline if they self-identified as a minority race (other than Asian) and perceived that their mother did not disapprove of their having sex. Female adolescents were less likely to report STDs if they perceived that adults care about them. No additional variables predicted STD diagnosis after baseline for male adolescents. We conclude that past history of STD infection is the most important indicator of subsequent STD infection among adolescents. Thus, this study suggests the benefit of specific clinical efforts designed to promote preventive behavior among adolescents newly diagnosed with an STD.

  14. Musculoskeletal impairment survey in Rwanda: Design of survey tool, survey methodology, and results of the pilot study (a cross sectional survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simms Victoria

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Musculoskeletal impairment (MSI is an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, especially in developing countries. Prevalence studies for MSI in the developing world have used varying methodologies and are seldom directly comparable. This study aimed to develop a new tool to screen for and diagnose MSI and to pilot test the methodology for a national survey in Rwanda. Methods A 7 question screening tool to identify cases of MSI was developed through literature review and discussions with healthcare professionals. To validate the tool, trained rehabilitation technicians screened 93 previously identified gold standard 'cases' and 86 'non cases'. Sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value were calculated. A standardised examination protocol was developed to determine the aetiology and diagnosis of MSI for those who fail the screening test. For the national survey in Rwanda, multistage cluster random sampling, with probability proportional to size procedures will be used for selection of a cross-sectional, nationally representative sample of the population. Households to be surveyed will be chosen through compact segment sampling and all individuals within chosen households will be screened. A pilot survey of 680 individuals was conducted using the protocol. Results: The screening tool demonstrated 99% sensitivity and 97% specificity for MSI, and a positive predictive value of 98%. During the pilot study 468 out of 680 eligible subjects (69% were screened. 45 diagnoses were identified in 38 persons who were cases of MSI. The subjects were grouped into categories based on diagnostic subgroups of congenital (1, traumatic (17, infective (2 neurological (6 and other acquired(19. They were also separated into mild (42.1%, moderate (42.1% and severe (15.8% cases, using an operational definition derived from the World Health Organisation's International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health

  15. The Spiritual Bypass Scale-Brazilian Adaptation: How Religious Affiliation, Age, and Gender Can Predict Levels of Psychological Avoidance and Spiritualizing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Picciotto

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to present and discuss three validation studies of the Spiritual Bypass Scale-13 (SBS-13 on a sample of the Brazilian population. These studies have three purposes (a to recover the twofactor solution of the SBS-13 among a Brazilian population sample; (b understand how religious affiliation, age, and gender can predict levels of psychological avoidance and spiritualizing; and (c explore the relationships between spiritual bypass and psycho-social variables, which include depression, anxiety, stress, narcissism, and preference for solitude. All data have been collected using an online self-report survey, and the pre-requisites for filling out the questionnaire are: (a Brazilian citizenship, (b a minimum of 18 years of age, and (c ascribing to some form of spirituality or religion. Based on two different samples of the Brazilian population (N1 = 193 and N2 = 729 that follow, the studies evidence acceptable reliability and validity of the Spiritual Bypass Scale-Brazilian Translation (SBS-BT for use in the Brazilian Portuguese-speaking community. Using confirmatory factor analysis, we have successfully replicated a two-factor structure of the SBS-BT while controlling for the effects of age, gender, and religious affiliation. The model replicates the two-factor structure of the Brazilian version of the SBS with indications of good fit: X2 (49, N = 729 = 190.9, p < .001; CMIN / df = 3.89; CFI = .95, SRMR = .04, RMSEA = .06. All items load onto two factors with coefficients ranging from .49 to .65. Alpha coefficients range from .72 to .86 across the two different samples. Results show a significant multivariate effect for religious affiliation and spiritual bypass. The dimensions of spiritual bypass predict the variances in stress, anxiety, and depression. For depression and anxiety, spiritualizing adds a unique, predictive value over and above the demographic variables and superiority (facet of narcissism.

  16. Predicted impacts of future water level decline on monitoring wells using a ground-water model of the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wurstner, S.K.; Freshley, M.D.

    1994-12-01

    A ground-water flow model was used to predict water level decline in selected wells in the operating areas (100, 200, 300, and 400 Areas) and the 600 Area. To predict future water levels, the unconfined aquifer system was stimulated with the two-dimensional version of a ground-water model of the Hanford Site, which is based on the Coupled Fluid, Energy, and Solute Transport (CFEST) Code in conjunction with the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software package. The model was developed using the assumption that artificial recharge to the unconfined aquifer system from Site operations was much greater than any natural recharge from precipitation or from the basalt aquifers below. However, artificial recharge is presently decreasing and projected to decrease even more in the future. Wells currently used for monitoring at the Hanford Site are beginning to go dry or are difficult to sample, and as the water table declines over the next 5 to 10 years, a larger number of wells is expected to be impacted. The water levels predicted by the ground-water model were compared with monitoring well completion intervals to determine which wells will become dry in the future. Predictions of wells that will go dry within the next 5 years have less uncertainty than predictions for wells that will become dry within 5 to 10 years. Each prediction is an estimate based on assumed future Hanford Site operating conditions and model assumptions

  17. Does functional capacity, fall risk awareness and physical activity level predict falls in older adults in different age groups?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, Natália Boneti; Rodacki, Andre Luiz Felix; Pereira, Gléber; Bento, Paulo Cesar Barauce

    2018-04-11

    The aims of this study were to examine whether: i) functional capacity and physical activity level differ between fallers and non-fallers older adults, by controlling for fall risk awareness; ii) functional capacity, fall risk awareness and physical activity differ between fallers and non-fallers older adults, by controlling for age; iii) variables and which may predict falls in different age groups. 1826 older adults performed a series of functional tests and reported their fall episodes, fall risk awareness and physical activity level. The overall incidence of falls was high (40.2%), and falls risk awareness scores reduced with age. The older adults with greater falls risk awareness and non-fallers presented better scores in all functional tests and physical activity level (P age groups and differed between fallers and non-fallers, irrespective of age group (P age groups (odds ranging: 1.05-1.09). Handgrip strength and balance scores predicted falls until 79 years (OR = 1.04, 95%CI = 1.01-1.06). The physical activity level predicted falls up to 70 years (OR = 1.09, 95%CI = 1.06-1.12). Functional mobility was able to predict falls up to 80 years (OR = 1.06, 95%CI = 1.01-1.08). Therefore, according to age, functional capacity, physical activity level and falls risk awareness can be a predictor of falls in older adults. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Effect of spatial resolution of soil data on predictions of eggshell trace element levels in the Rook Corvus frugilegus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orłowski, Grzegorz; Siebielec, Grzegorz; Kasprzykowski, Zbigniew; Dobicki, Wojciech; Pokorny, Przemysław; Wuczyński, Andrzej; Polechoński, Ryszard; Mazgajski, Tomasz D

    2016-12-01

    Although a considerable research effort has gone into studying the dietary pathways of metals to the bodies of laying female birds and their eggs in recent years, no detailed investigations have yet been carried out relating the properties of the biogeochemical environment at large spatial scales to eggshell trace element levels in typical soil-invertebrate feeding birds under natural conditions. We used data from a large-scale nationwide monitoring survey of soil quality in Poland (3724 sampling points from the 43 792 available) to predict levels of five trace elements (copper [Cu], cadmium [Cd], nickel [Ni], zinc [Zn] and lead [Pb]) in Rook Corvus frugilegus eggshells from 42 breeding colonies. Our major aim was to test whether differences exist in the explanatory power of soil data (acidity, content of elements and organic matter, and particle size) used as a correlate of concentrations of eggshell trace elements among four different distances (5, 10, 15 and 20 km) around rookeries. Over all four distances around the rookeries only the concentrations of Cu and Cd in eggshells were positively correlated with those in soil, while eggshell Pb was correlated with the soil Pb level at the two longest distances (15 and 20 km) around the rookeries. The physical properties of soil (primarily the increase in pH) adversely affected eggshell Cd and Pb concentrations. The patterns and factors governing metal bioaccumulation in soil invertebrates and eggshells appear to be coincident, which strongly suggests a general similarity in the biochemical pathways of elements at different levels of the food web. The increasing acidification of arable soil as a result of excessive fertilisation and over-nitrification can enhance the bioavailability of toxic elements to laying females and their eggs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Prediction of changes in memory performance by plasma homovanillic acid levels in clozapine-treated patients with schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumiyoshi, Tomiki; Roy, A; Kim, C-H; Jayathilake, K; Lee, M A; Sumiyoshi, C; Meltzer, H Y

    2004-12-01

    Cognitive dysfunction in schizophrenia has been demonstrated to be dependent, in part, on dopaminergic activity. Clozapine has been found to improve some domains of cognition, including verbal memory, in patients with schizophrenia. This study tested the hypothesis that plasma homovanillic acid (pHVA) levels, a peripheral measure of central dopaminergic activity, would predict the change in memory performance in patients with schizophrenia treated with clozapine. Twenty-seven male patients with schizophrenia received clozapine treatment for 6 weeks. Verbal list learning (VLL)-Delayed Recall (VLL-DR), a test of secondary verbal memory, was administered before and after clozapine treatment. Blood samples to measure pHVA levels were collected at baseline. Baseline pHVA levels were negatively correlated with change in performance on VLL-DR; the lower baseline pHVA level was associated with greater improvement in performance on VLL-DR during treatment with clozapine. Baseline pHVA levels in subjects who showed improvement in verbal memory during clozapine treatment ( n=13) were significantly lower than those in subjects whose memory performance did not improve ( n=14). The results of this study indicate that baseline pHVA levels predict the ability of clozapine to improve memory performance in patients with schizophrenia.

  20. Ischemia-modified albumin levels in the prediction of acute critical neurological findings in carbon monoxide poisoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Daş

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to determine whether serum ischemia-modified albumin (IMA levels in patients with carbon monoxide (CO poisoning were higher compared with a control group of healthy volunteers. In addition, the study sought to determine if there was a correlation between serum IMA levels and carboxyhemoglobin (COHB levels and other critical neurological findings (CNFs. In this prospective study, the IMA levels of 100 patients with CO poisoning and 50 control individuals were compared. In addition, the IMA and COHB levels were analyzed according to absence or presence CNFs in patients with CO poisoning. The levels of IMA (mg/dL on admittance, and during the 1st hour and 3rd hour, in patients with CO poisoning (49.90 ± 35.43, 30.21 ± 14.81, and 21.87 ± 6.03 were significantly higher, compared with the control individuals (17.30 ± 2.88. The levels of IMA in the 6th hour were not higher compared with control individuals. The levels of IMA on admittance, and during the 1st hour, 3rd hour, and 6th hour, and COHB (% levels in patients who had CNFs were higher compared with IMA levels and COHB levels in patients who had no CNFs (p < 0.001. However, when the multivariate model was created, it was observed that IMA level on admittance was a poor indicator for prediction of CNFs (odds ratio = 1.05; 95% confidence interval, 1.01–1.08. We therefore concluded that serum IMA levels could be helpful in the diagnosis of CO poisoning. However, we believe that IMA levels cannot be used to predict which patients will develop CNFs due to CO poisoning.

  1. A survey of acoustic conditions and noise levels in secondary school classrooms in England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shield, Bridget; Conetta, Robert; Dockrell, Julie; Connolly, Daniel; Cox, Trevor; Mydlarz, Charles

    2015-01-01

    An acoustic survey of secondary schools in England has been undertaken. Room acoustic parameters and background noise levels were measured in 185 unoccupied spaces in 13 schools to provide information on the typical acoustic environment of secondary schools. The unoccupied acoustic and noise data were correlated with various physical characteristics of the spaces. Room height and the amount of glazing were related to the unoccupied reverberation time and therefore need to be controlled to reduce reverberation to suitable levels for teaching and learning. Further analysis of the unoccupied data showed that the introduction of legislation relating to school acoustics in England and Wales in 2003 approximately doubled the number of school spaces complying with current standards. Noise levels were also measured during 274 lessons to examine typical levels generated during teaching activities in secondary schools and to investigate the influence of acoustic design on working noise levels in the classroom. Comparison of unoccupied and occupied data showed that unoccupied acoustic conditions affect the noise levels occurring during lessons. They were also related to the time spent in disruption to the lessons (e.g., students talking or shouting) and so may also have an impact upon student behavior in the classroom.

  2. Interest level in 2-year-olds with autism spectrum disorder predicts rate of verbal, nonverbal, and adaptive skill acquisition

    OpenAIRE

    Klintwall, Lars; Macari, Suzanne; Eikeseth, Svein; Chawarska, Katarzyna

    2014-01-01

    Recent studies have suggested that skill acquisition rates for children with autism spectrum disorders receiving early interventions can be predicted by child motivation. We examined whether level of interest during an Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule assessment at 2 years predicts subsequent rates of verbal, nonverbal, and adaptive skill acquisition to the age of 3 years. A total of 70 toddlers with autism spectrum disorder, mean age of 21.9 months, were scored using Interest Level Sco...

  3. An experimental survey of the factors that affect leaching from low-level radioactive waste forms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dougherty, D.R.; Pietrzak, R.F.; Fuhrmann, M.; Colombo, P.

    1988-09-01

    This report represents the results of an experimental survey of the factors that affect leaching from several types of solidified low-level radioactive waste forms. The goal of these investigations was to determine those factors that accelerate leaching without changing its mechanism(s). Typically, although not in every case,the accelerating factors include: increased temperature, increased waste loading (i.e., increased waste to binder ratio), and decreased size (i.e., decreased waste form volume to surface area ratio). Additional factors that were studied were: increased leachant volume to waste form surface area ratio, pH, leachant composition (groundwaters, natural and synthetic chelating agents), leachant flow rate or replacement frequency and waste form porosity and surface condition. Other potential factors, including the radiation environment and pressure, were omitted based on a survey of the literature. 82 refs., 236 figs., 13 tabs

  4. Trunk-to-Peripheral Fat Ratio Predicts Subsequent Blood Pressure Levels in Pubertal Children With Relatively Low Body Fat - Three-Year Follow-up Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouda, Katsuyasu; Ohara, Kumiko; Fujita, Yuki; Nakamura, Harunobu; Iki, Masayuki

    2016-07-25

    Only a few studies have examined the relationship between fat distribution measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and blood pressure (BP), and no cohort study has targeted a pediatric population. The source population comprised all students registered as fifth graders in the 2 elementary schools in Hamamatsu, Japan. Of these, 258 children participated in both baseline (at age 11) and follow-up (at age 14) surveys. Body fat distribution was assessed using trunk-to-appendicular fat ratio (TAR) and trunk-to-leg fat ratio (TLR) measured by DXA. Relationships between BP levels and fat distribution (TAR or TLR) were examined after stratification by tertiles of whole-body fat.Systolic BP at follow-up was significantly (Pfat. Moreover, adjusted means of systolic and diastolic BPs in girls showed a significant increase from the lowest to highest tertile of TAR within the lowest tertile of whole-body fat. Body fat distribution in childhood could predict subsequent BP levels in adolescence. Children with a relatively low body fat that is more centrally distributed tended to show relatively high BP later on. (Circ J 2016; 80: 1838-1845).

  5. Arecibo pulsar survey using ALFA. III. Precursor survey and population synthesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swiggum, J. K.; Lorimer, D. R.; McLaughlin, M. A.; Bates, S. D.; Senty, T. R. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV 26506 (United States); Champion, D. J.; Lazarus, P. [Max-Planck-Institut für Radioastronomie, D-53121 Bonn (Germany); Ransom, S. M. [NRAO, Charlottesville, VA 22903 (United States); Brazier, A.; Chatterjee, S.; Cordes, J. M. [Astronomy Department, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States); Hessels, J. W. T. [ASTRON, Netherlands Institute for Radio Astronomy, Postbus 2, 7990 AA, Dwingeloo (Netherlands); Nice, D. J. [Department of Physics, Lafayette College, Easton, PA 18042 (United States); Ellis, J.; Allen, B. [Physics Department, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee WI 53211 (United States); Bhat, N. D. R. [Center for Astrophysics and Supercomputing, Swinburne University, Hawthorn, Victoria 3122 (Australia); Bogdanov, S.; Camilo, F. [Columbia Astrophysics Laboratory, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027 (United States); Crawford, F. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Franklin and Marshall College, Lancaster, PA 17604-3003 (United States); Deneva, J. S. [Arecibo Observatory, HC3 Box 53995, Arecibo, PR 00612 (United States); and others

    2014-06-01

    The Pulsar Arecibo L-band Feed Array (PALFA) Survey uses the ALFA 7-beam receiver to search both inner and outer Galactic sectors visible from Arecibo (32° ≲ ℓ ≲ 77° and 168° ≲ ℓ ≲ 214°) close to the Galactic plane (|b| ≲ 5°) for pulsars. The PALFA survey is sensitive to sources fainter and more distant than have previously been seen because of Arecibo's unrivaled sensitivity. In this paper we detail a precursor survey of this region with PALFA, which observed a subset of the full region (slightly more restrictive in ℓ and |b| ≲ 1°) and detected 45 pulsars. Detections included 1 known millisecond pulsar and 11 previously unknown, long-period pulsars. In the surveyed part of the sky that overlaps with the Parkes Multibeam Pulsar Survey (36° ≲ ℓ ≲ 50°), PALFA is probing deeper than the Parkes survey, with four discoveries in this region. For both Galactic millisecond and normal pulsar populations, we compare the survey's detections with simulations to model these populations and, in particular, to estimate the number of observable pulsars in the Galaxy. We place 95% confidence intervals of 82,000 to 143,000 on the number of detectable normal pulsars and 9000 to 100,000 on the number of detectable millisecond pulsars in the Galactic disk. These are consistent with previous estimates. Given the most likely population size in each case (107,000 and 15,000 for normal and millisecond pulsars, respectively), we extend survey detection simulations to predict that, when complete, the full PALFA survey should have detected 1000{sub −230}{sup +330} normal pulsars and 30{sub −20}{sup +200} millisecond pulsars. Identical estimation techniques predict that 490{sub −115}{sup +160} normal pulsars and 12{sub −5}{sup +70} millisecond pulsars would be detected by the beginning of 2014; at the time, the PALFA survey had detected 283 normal pulsars and 31 millisecond pulsars, respectively. We attribute the deficiency in normal pulsar

  6. Patients' level of satisfaction and self-reports of intention to comply following consultation with nurses and midwives with prescriptive authority: a cross-sectional survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drennan, Jonathan; Naughton, Corina; Allen, Deirdre; Hyde, Abbey; O'Boyle, Kathy; Felle, Patrick; Treacy, Margaret Pearl; Butler, Michelle

    2011-07-01

    Prescriptive authority for nurses and midwives was introduced in Ireland in 2007. This allows nurses and midwives who have completed a prescribing preparation programme to independently prescribe a wide-range of medications. To date little is known of patient outcomes such as satisfaction with the consultation process and intention to comply as a consequence of the introduction of nurse and midwife prescribing. There are four principal objectives within this study: (1) to measure the level of patients' satisfaction with education and advice received from a nurse or midwife with a prescribing remit; (2) to measure patients' satisfaction with the consultation process; (3) to measure patients' self-reports of their intention to comply with the prescriber's prescription and advice; and (4) to identify the variables that predict patients' intention to comply with the prescription and advice provided by a nurse or midwife with prescriptive authority. Cross-sectional descriptive survey. A total of one hundred and forty respondents completed the survey. Respondents consisted of adult patients who had received a prescription from a nurse prescriber in a general hospital, women who had received a prescription from a midwife in a maternity hospital and parents whose child received a prescription from a nurse in a children's hospital. Instruments used to measure patient outcomes included the Consultation Satisfaction Questionnaire (CSQ) and the compliance intent subscale of the Medical Interview Satisfaction Scale (MISS). A linear multiple regression model was performed to identify the variables that predicted patients' intent to comply. Patients and parents surveyed were highly satisfied with the care they received from nurses and midwives with prescriptive authority. Respondents also reported that they received comprehensive education and advice. Predictors of compliance intent included patient satisfaction with the time spent with the nurse or midwife during the prescribing

  7. Radon in dwellings the national radon survey Clare, Limerick and Tipperary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGarry, A.T.; Fennell, S.G.; Mackin, G.M.; Madden, J.S.; O'Colmain, M.

    1998-12-01

    This report presents the results of the fourth phase of the National Radon Survey carried out by the Radiological Protection Institute of Ireland. The counties included in this phase are Clare, Limerick and Tipperary. The average radon concentrations for the houses measured in these counties were 88 Bq/m 3 , 77 Bq/m 3 and 79 Bq/m 3 . The measurement data were grouped on the basis of the 10 km grid squares of the Irish National Grid System and used to predict the percentage of dwellings in each grid square which exceeds the Reference Level of 200 Bq/m 3 . Grid squares where this percentage is predicted to be 10% or higher are designated High Radon Areas. The health effects of exposure to high radon levels are discussed and recommendations are made regarding both new and existing dwellings. (author)

  8. Determinants of Farmers’ Willingness to Pay and Its Level for Ecological Compensation of Poyang Lake Wetland, China: A Household-Level Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fanbin Kong

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the determinants of farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP and their payment levels for ecological compensation of the Poyang Lake Wetland in China. We developed a farmer household survey and gathered 292 effective responses. The contingent valuation method (CVM and Heckman’s two-step model were employed for the empirical study. Results show that 46.58% of farmers are willing to pay ecological compensation, with an average price of $64.39/household per year. The influencing factors that significantly influence farmers’ WTP include household income, residential location, emphasis on improvement of wetland resources, arable land area, and contracted water area. In addition, household income, residential location, arable land area, and contracted water area are significantly related to their payment levels. The results of this empirical study inform important policy implications and recommendations.

  9. Prediction of forest fires occurrences with area-level Poisson mixed models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boubeta, Miguel; Lombardía, María José; Marey-Pérez, Manuel Francisco; Morales, Domingo

    2015-05-01

    The number of fires in forest areas of Galicia (north-west of Spain) during the summer period is quite high. Local authorities are interested in analyzing the factors that explain this phenomenon. Poisson regression models are good tools for describing and predicting the number of fires per forest areas. This work employs area-level Poisson mixed models for treating real data about fires in forest areas. A parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating the mean squared errors of fires predictors. The developed methodology and software are applied to a real data set of fires in forest areas of Galicia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Road traffic noise prediction model for heterogeneous traffic based on ASJ-RTN Model 2008 with consideration of horn

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hustim, M.; Arifin, Z.; Aly, S. H.; Ramli, M. I.; Zakaria, R.; Liputo, A.

    2018-04-01

    This research aimed to predict the noise produced by the traffic in the road network in Makassar City using ASJ-RTN Model 2008 by calculating the horn sound. Observations were taken at 37 survey points on road side. The observations were conducted at 06.00 - 18.00 and 06.00 - 21.00 which research objects were motorcycle (MC), light vehicle (LV) and heavy vehicle (HV). The observed data were traffic volume, vehicle speed, number of horn and traffic noise using Sound Level Meter Tenmars TM-103. The research result indicates that prediction noise model by calculating the horn sound produces the average noise level value of 78.5 dB having the Pearson’s correlation and RMSE of 0.95 and 0.87. Therefore, ASJ-RTN Model 2008 prediction model by calculating the horn sound is said to be sufficiently good for predicting noise level.

  11. Perceptions and Practice: The Relationship between Teacher Perceptions of Technology Use and Level of Classroom Technology Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawyer, Laura M.

    2017-01-01

    This correlational-predictive study investigated the relationship between teacher perceptions of technology use and observed classroom technology integration level using the "Technology Uses and Perceptions Survey" (TUPS) and the "Technology Integration Matrix-Observation" (TIM-O) instruments, developed by the Florida Center…

  12. Sunyaev-Zeldovich Predictions for the Atacama Cosmology Telescope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menanteau, Felipe; Hughes, J. P.; Jimenez, R.; Barkhouse, W.; Berta, Z.; Hansen, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Kosowsky, A.; Lin, Y. T.; Moodley, K.; Ngeow, C.; Roche, N.; Spergel, D.; Tucker, D.; Verde, L.

    2007-05-01

    We present predictions for the microwave sky in a low-extinction region centered near RA = 23:00 and Dec = -55:12, which will be surveyed in the coming year at 145 GHz by the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT, PI: Lyman Page) and in the X-ray band by XMM-Newton (PI: Hans Boehringer). The predictions are based on Sunyaev-Zeldovich distortions drawn from optical data collected by the Blanco Cosmology Survey (BCS). We also compare the predictions with X-ray data from the ROSAT All Sky Survey. The BCS (PI: Joe Mohr) is a NOAO large, wide-field survey project that has been awarded 45 nights on the CTIO Blanco 4-meter telescope to image two 50 square-degree patches of the southern sky in four bands (griz). The survey began in 2005 and has completed two (out of three) years of data taking. A preliminary automated image reduction and analysis pipeline for the BCS data is briefly summarized. Financial support was provided by the NSF under the PIRE program (OISE-0530095).

  13. Generating Health Estimates by Zip Code: A Semiparametric Small Area Estimation Approach Using the California Health Interview Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yueyan; Ponce, Ninez A; Wang, Pan; Opsomer, Jean D; Yu, Hongjian

    2015-12-01

    We propose a method to meet challenges in generating health estimates for granular geographic areas in which the survey sample size is extremely small. Our generalized linear mixed model predicts health outcomes using both individual-level and neighborhood-level predictors. The model's feature of nonparametric smoothing function on neighborhood-level variables better captures the association between neighborhood environment and the outcome. Using 2011 to 2012 data from the California Health Interview Survey, we demonstrate an empirical application of this method to estimate the fraction of residents without health insurance for Zip Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTAs). Our method generated stable estimates of uninsurance for 1519 of 1765 ZCTAs (86%) in California. For some areas with great socioeconomic diversity across adjacent neighborhoods, such as Los Angeles County, the modeled uninsured estimates revealed much heterogeneity among geographically adjacent ZCTAs. The proposed method can increase the value of health surveys by providing modeled estimates for health data at a granular geographic level. It can account for variations in health outcomes at the neighborhood level as a result of both socioeconomic characteristics and geographic locations.

  14. Myeloperoxidase levels predicts angiographic severity of coronary artery disease in patients with chronic stable angina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Baseri

    2014-01-01

    Conclusions: Our findings indicated that the plasma MPO levels increase in patients with stable CAD and hence that, it can be used as adiagnostic factor to predict the coronary artery atherosclerosis severity in stable CAD patients; However, it needs further widespread investigations to achieve an accurate cut point.

  15. Prediction of Physical Activity Level Using Processes of Change From the Transtheoretical Model: Experiential, Behavioral, or an Interaction Effect?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romain, Ahmed Jérôme; Horwath, Caroline; Bernard, Paquito

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to compare prediction of physical activity (PA) by experiential or behavioral processes of change (POCs) or an interaction between both types of processes. A cross-sectional study. This study was conducted using an online questionnaire. A total of 394 participants (244 women, 150 men), with a mean age of 35.12 ± 12.04 years and a mean body mass index of 22.97 ± 4.25 kg/m 2 were included. Participants completed the Processes of Change, Stages of Change questionnaires, and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire to evaluate self-reported PA level (total, vigorous, and moderate PA). Hierarchical multiple regression models were used to test the prediction of PA level. For both total PA (β = .261; P behavioral POCs were a significant predictor. Regarding moderate PA, only the interaction between experiential and behavioral POCs was a significant predictor (β = .123; P = .017). Our results provide confirmation that behavioral processes are most prominent in PA behavior. Nevertheless, it is of interest to note that the interaction between experiential and behavioral POCs was the only element predicting moderate PA level. Experiential processes were not associated with PA level.

  16. Predicting long-term temperature increase for time-dependent SAR levels with a single short-term temperature response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carluccio, Giuseppe; Bruno, Mary; Collins, Christopher M

    2016-05-01

    Present a novel method for rapid prediction of temperature in vivo for a series of pulse sequences with differing levels and distributions of specific energy absorption rate (SAR). After the temperature response to a brief period of heating is characterized, a rapid estimate of temperature during a series of periods at different heating levels is made using a linear heat equation and impulse-response (IR) concepts. Here the initial characterization and long-term prediction for a complete spine exam are made with the Pennes' bioheat equation where, at first, core body temperature is allowed to increase and local perfusion is not. Then corrections through time allowing variation in local perfusion are introduced. The fast IR-based method predicted maximum temperature increase within 1% of that with a full finite difference simulation, but required less than 3.5% of the computation time. Even higher accelerations are possible depending on the time step size chosen, with loss in temporal resolution. Correction for temperature-dependent perfusion requires negligible additional time and can be adjusted to be more or less conservative than the corresponding finite difference simulation. With appropriate methods, it is possible to rapidly predict temperature increase throughout the body for actual MR examinations. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. A self-assessment predictive model for type 2 diabetes or impaired fasting glycaemia derived from a population-based survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asadollahi, Khairollah; Asadollahi, Parisa; Azizi, Monire; Abangah, Ghobad

    2017-09-01

    There is no cure for diabetes and its prevention is interesting for both people and health policy makers. The aim of this study was to construct a simple scoring system to predict diabetes and suggest a self assessment predictive model for type 2 diabetes in Iran. This study was a part of a comprehensive population based survey performed in Ilam province during 2011-2012, including 2158 cases≥25years. All demographic and laboratory results were entered into the prepared sheets and were analysed using SPSS 16. By identification of relative risks of diabetes and IFG, a predictive model was constructed and proposed for these abnormalities. Totally, 2158 people comprising 72% female, 60% from urban regions, mean age of 45.5±14years were investigated and the average height, weight, FBS and waist of participants were as follows respectively: 164±8.9cm, 68.4±12.3kg, 5.7±2.8mmol/l (102.6±49.9mg/dl) and 82.3±14.3cm. The prevalence of IFG, diabetes and hyperglycaemia among all participants were 7.8%, 11.8% and 19.6% respectively. Regression analysis revealed familial history of diabetes, place of life, age, hypertension, daily exercise, marital status, gender, waist size, smoking, and BMI as the most relevant risk factors for diabetes and hyperglycemia. A self-assessment predictive model was constructed for general population living in the west of Iran. This is the first self-assessment predictive model for diabetes in Iran. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Construct-level predictive validity of educational attainment and intellectual aptitude tests in medical student selection: meta-regression of six UK longitudinal studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Measures used for medical student selection should predict future performance during training. A problem for any selection study is that predictor-outcome correlations are known only in those who have been selected, whereas selectors need to know how measures would predict in the entire pool of applicants. That problem of interpretation can be solved by calculating construct-level predictive validity, an estimate of true predictor-outcome correlation across the range of applicant abilities. Methods Construct-level predictive validities were calculated in six cohort studies of medical student selection and training (student entry, 1972 to 2009) for a range of predictors, including A-levels, General Certificates of Secondary Education (GCSEs)/O-levels, and aptitude tests (AH5 and UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT)). Outcomes included undergraduate basic medical science and finals assessments, as well as postgraduate measures of Membership of the Royal Colleges of Physicians of the United Kingdom (MRCP(UK)) performance and entry in the Specialist Register. Construct-level predictive validity was calculated with the method of Hunter, Schmidt and Le (2006), adapted to correct for right-censorship of examination results due to grade inflation. Results Meta-regression analyzed 57 separate predictor-outcome correlations (POCs) and construct-level predictive validities (CLPVs). Mean CLPVs are substantially higher (.450) than mean POCs (.171). Mean CLPVs for first-year examinations, were high for A-levels (.809; CI: .501 to .935), and lower for GCSEs/O-levels (.332; CI: .024 to .583) and UKCAT (mean = .245; CI: .207 to .276). A-levels had higher CLPVs for all undergraduate and postgraduate assessments than did GCSEs/O-levels and intellectual aptitude tests. CLPVs of educational attainment measures decline somewhat during training, but continue to predict postgraduate performance. Intellectual aptitude tests have lower CLPVs than A-levels or GCSEs/O-levels

  19. An Improved Prediction Model for the Impact Sound Level of Lightweight Floors: Introducing Decoupled Floor-Ceiling and Beam-Plate Moment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mosharrof, Mohammad Sazzad; Brunskog, Jonas; Ljunggren, Fredrik

    2011-01-01

    the impact sound pressure level in a receiving room for a coupled floor structure where floor and ceiling are rigidly connected by beams. A theoretical model for predicting the impact sound level for a decoupled floor structure, which has no rigid mechanical connections between the floor and the ceiling......, is developed. An analytical method has been implemented, where a spatial Fourier transform method as well as the Poisson’s sum formula is applied to model transformed plate displacements. Radiated sound power was calculated from these displacements and normalized sound pressure levels were calculated in one...... and is found to be dependent on frequency, showing significant improvement in predicting impact sound level at high frequency region....

  20. Interest Level in 2-Year-Olds with Autism Spectrum Disorder Predicts Rate of Verbal, Nonverbal, and Adaptive Skill Acquisition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klintwall, Lars; Macari, Suzanne; Eikeseth, Svein; Chawarska, Katarzyna

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have suggested that skill acquisition rates for children with autism spectrum disorders receiving early interventions can be predicted by child motivation. We examined whether level of interest during an Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule assessment at 2?years predicts subsequent rates of verbal, nonverbal, and adaptive skill…

  1. Developing the level of adoption survey to inform collaborative discussion regarding educational innovation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doug Orr

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Learning organizations rely on collaborative information and understanding to support and sustain professional growth and development. A collaborative self-assessment instrument can provide clear articulation and characterization of the level of adoption of innovation such as the use of instructional technologies. Adapted from the “Level of Use” (LoU and “Stages of Concern” indices, the Level of Adoption (LoA survey was developed to assess changes in understanding of and competence with emerging and innovative educational technologies. The LoA survey, while reflecting the criteria and framework of the original LoU from which it was derived, utilizes a specifically structured on-line, self-reporting scale of “level of adoption” to promote collaborative self-reflection and discussion. Growth in knowledge of, and confidence with, specific emergent technologies is clearly indicated by the results of this pilot study, thus supporting the use of collaborative reflection and assessment to foster personal and systemic professional development. Résumé : Les organisations apprenantes s’appuient sur des informations et une compréhension issues de la collaboration afin de soutenir et d’entretenir la croissance et le perfectionnement professionnels. Un instrument d’auto-évaluation collaboratif permet d’articuler et de caractériser de manière explicite le niveau d’adoption des innovations, comme l’utilisation de technologies éducatives, par exemple. Adapté à partir des indices de « niveau d’utilisation » (ou « LoU » pour Level of Use et de « niveaux de préoccupation », l’instrument d’enquête sur le niveau d’adoption (ou « LoA » pour Level of Adoption a été conçu afin d’évaluer les changements qui surviennent dans la compréhension des technologies éducatives émergentes et innovatrices ainsi que dans les compétences relatives à ces technologies. L’instrument d’enquête LoA, bien qu’il refl

  2. Radon in dwellings the national radon survey Cavan, Dublin, Louth, Monaghan and Wicklow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffy, J.T.; Mackin, G.M.; Fennell, S.G.; Madden, J.S.; McGarry, A.T.; Colgan, P.A.

    1996-10-01

    This report presents the first results of the National Radon Survey carried out by the Radiological Protection Institute of Ireland. The average radon concentrations for the houses measured in counties Cavan, Dublin, Louth, Monaghan and Wicklow ranged from 69 to 138 Bq/m 3 with individual values as high as 1000 Bq/m 3 . The measurement data were grouped on the basis of the 10 km grid squares of the Irish National Grid System and used to predict the percentage of dwellings in each grid square which exceeds the Reference Level of 200 Bq/m 3 . Grid squares where this percentage is predicted to be 10% or higher are designated High Radon Areas. The health effects of exposure to high radon levels are discussed and recommendations are made regarding both new and existing dwellings

  3. Predicting medical professionals' intention to allow family presence during resuscitation: A cross sectional survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Meng-Kuan; Aritejo, Bayu Aji; Tang, Jing-Shia; Chen, Chien-Liang; Chuang, Chia-Chang

    2017-05-01

    Family presence during resuscitation is an emerging trend, yet it remains controversial, even in countries with relatively high acceptance of family presence during resuscitation among medical professionals. Family presence during resuscitation is not common in many countries, and medical professionals in these regions are unfamiliar with family presence during resuscitation. Therefore, this study predicted the medical professionals' intention to allow family presence during resuscitation by applying the theory of planned behaviour. A cross-sectional survey. A single medical centre in southern Taiwan. Medical staffs including physicians and nurses in a single medical centre (n=714). A questionnaire was constructed to measure the theory of planned behaviour constructs of attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioural control, and behavioural intentions as well as the awareness of family presence during resuscitation and demographics. In total, 950 questionnaires were distributed to doctors and nurses in a medical centre. Among the 714 valid questionnaires, only 11 participants were aware of any association in Taiwan that promotes family presence during resuscitation; 94.7% replied that they were unsure (30.4%) or that their unit did not have a family presence during resuscitation policy (74.8%). Regression analysis was performed to predict medical professionals' intention to allow family presence during resuscitation. The results indicated that only positive attitudes and subjective norms regarding family presence during resuscitation and clinical tenure could predict the intention to allow family presence during resuscitation. Because Family presence during resuscitation practice is not common in Taiwan and only 26.19% of the participants agreed to both items measuring the intention to allow family presence during resuscitation, we recommend the implementation of a family presence during resuscitation education program that will enhance the positive beliefs

  4. A combination of preoperative CT findings and postoperative serum CEA levels improves recurrence prediction for stage I lung adenocarcinoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamazaki, Motohiko, E-mail: xackey2001@gmail.com [Department of Radiology, Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences (Japan); Ishikawa, Hiroyuki [Department of Radiology, Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences (Japan); Kunii, Ryosuke [Division of Cellular and Molecular Pathology, Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences (Japan); Tasaki, Akiko; Sato, Suguru; Ikeda, Yohei; Yoshimura, Norihiko [Department of Radiology, Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences (Japan); Hashimoto, Takehisa; Tsuchida, Masanori [Division of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences (Japan); Aoyama, Hidefumi [Department of Radiology, Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences (Japan)

    2015-01-15

    Objectives: To assess the prognostic value of combined evaluation of preoperative CT findings and pre/postoperative serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels for pathological stage I lung adenocarcinoma. Methods: This retrospective study included 250 consecutive patients who underwent complete resection for ≤3-cm pathological stage I (T1–2aN0M0) adenocarcinomas (132 men, 118 women; mean age, 67.8 years). Radiologists evaluated following CT findings: maximum tumor diameter, percentage of solid component (%solid), air bronchogram, spiculation, adjacency of bullae or interstitial pneumonia (IP) around the tumor, notch, and pleural indent. These CT findings, pre/postoperative CEA levels, age, gender, and Brinkman index were assessed by Cox proportional hazards model to determine the best prognostic model. Prognostic accuracy was examined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: Median follow-up period was 73.2 months. In multivariate analysis, high %solid, adjacency of bullae or IP around the tumor, and high postoperative CEA levels comprised the best combination for predicting recurrence (P < 0.05). A combination of these three findings had a greater accuracy in predicting 5-year disease-free survival than did %solid alone (AUC = 0.853 versus 0.792; P = 0.023), with a sensitivity of 85.7% and a specificity of 74.3% at the optimal threshold. The best cut-off values of %solid and postoperative CEA levels for predicting high-risk patients were ≥48% and ≥3.7 ng/mL, respectively. Conclusion: Compared to %solid alone, combined evaluation of %solid, adjacency of bullae or IP change around the tumor, and postoperative CEA levels improves recurrence prediction for stage I lung adenocarcinoma.

  5. Epidemiological surveys on the effects of low-level radiation dose: a comparative assessment. Vol. A: pre-conception irradiation effects. Vol. E (DRAFT A): group collation tables

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rose, K.S.B.

    1988-01-01

    In this report, the health effects of low-level doses of radiation are considered by reference to published epidemiological surveys. The work was carried out with three objectives in mind: 1. to provide a comprehensive and critical review of the subject; 2. to seek consistent indications of particular health effects by collating results and comparing with those from surveys at moderate-level doses; 3. to provide an authoritative view on the epidemiology of low-level radiation-induced health effects. Vol E (DRAFT A) is appended and contains group collation tables. Epidemiological surveys can be conveniently divided into four classes (A, B, C, D) according to the phase of life when irradiation occurs or the effect is diagnosed. The first of the classes (A) is addressed here; this class is concerned with possible effects arising from radiation received by a parent before conception. Possible effects of preconception irradiation were identified under four broad groupings. These are Down's syndrome, ''Indicators of Reproductive Damage'' (mainly Primary Sterility, Congenital Abnormalities, Sex Ratio, Fetal Mortality, Infant Mortality), Childhood Malignancies, and Chromosomal Changes in Abortuses. Information about each survey, and comparisons with results from moderate-level dose surveys, are contained in synopses that are set out in the Appendix.

  6. Predicting high risk births with contraceptive prevalence and contraceptive method-mix in an ecologic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perin, Jamie; Amouzou, Agbessi; Walker, Neff

    2017-11-07

    Increased contraceptive use has been associated with a decrease in high parity births, births that occur close together in time, and births to very young or to older women. These types of births are also associated with high risk of under-five mortality. Previous studies have looked at the change in the level of contraception use and the average change in these types of high-risk births. We aim to predict the distribution of births in a specific country when there is a change in the level and method of modern contraception. We used data from full birth histories and modern contraceptive use from 207 nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys covering 71 countries to describe the distribution of births in each survey based on birth order, preceding birth space, and mother's age at birth. We estimated the ecologic associations between the prevalence and method-mix of modern contraceptives and the proportion of births in each category. Hierarchical modelling was applied to these aggregated cross sectional proportions, so that random effects were estimated for countries with multiple surveys. We use these results to predict the change in type of births associated with scaling up modern contraception in three different scenarios. We observed marked differences between regions, in the absolute rates of contraception, the types of contraceptives in use, and in the distribution of type of birth. Contraceptive method-mix was a significant determinant of proportion of high-risk births, especially for birth spacing, but also for mother's age and parity. Increased use of modern contraceptives is especially predictive of reduced parity and more births with longer preceding space. However, increased contraception alone is not associated with fewer births to women younger than 18 years or a decrease in short-spaced births. Both the level and the type of contraception are important factors in determining the effects of family planning on changes in distribution of

  7. Predicting high risk births with contraceptive prevalence and contraceptive method-mix in an ecologic analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamie Perin

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Increased contraceptive use has been associated with a decrease in high parity births, births that occur close together in time, and births to very young or to older women. These types of births are also associated with high risk of under-five mortality. Previous studies have looked at the change in the level of contraception use and the average change in these types of high-risk births. We aim to predict the distribution of births in a specific country when there is a change in the level and method of modern contraception. Methods We used data from full birth histories and modern contraceptive use from 207 nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys covering 71 countries to describe the distribution of births in each survey based on birth order, preceding birth space, and mother’s age at birth. We estimated the ecologic associations between the prevalence and method-mix of modern contraceptives and the proportion of births in each category. Hierarchical modelling was applied to these aggregated cross sectional proportions, so that random effects were estimated for countries with multiple surveys. We use these results to predict the change in type of births associated with scaling up modern contraception in three different scenarios. Results We observed marked differences between regions, in the absolute rates of contraception, the types of contraceptives in use, and in the distribution of type of birth. Contraceptive method-mix was a significant determinant of proportion of high-risk births, especially for birth spacing, but also for mother’s age and parity. Increased use of modern contraceptives is especially predictive of reduced parity and more births with longer preceding space. However, increased contraception alone is not associated with fewer births to women younger than 18 years or a decrease in short-spaced births. Conclusions Both the level and the type of contraception are important factors in

  8. Radionuclide migration in groundwater at a low-level waste disposal site: a comparison of predictive performance modeling versus field observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robertson, D.E.; Myers, D.A.; Abel, K.H.; Bergeron, M.P.; Champ, D.R.; Killey, R.W.D.; Moltyaner, G.L.; Young, J.L.

    1986-01-01

    This paper describes a project which is structured to test the concept of modeling a shallow land low-level waste burial site. The project involves a comparison of the actual observed radionuclide migration in groundwaters at a 30-year old well-monitored field site with the results of predictive transport modeling. The comparison is being conducted as a cooperative program with the Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. (AECL) at the low-level waste management area at the Chalk River Nuclear Laboratories, Ontario, Canada. A joint PNL-AECL field investigation was conducted in 1983 and 1984 to compliment the existing extensive data base on actual radionuclide migration. Predictive transport modeling is currently being conducted for this site; first, as if it were a new location being considered for a low-level waste shallow-land burial site and only minimal information about the site were available, and second, utilizing the extensive data base available for the site. The modeling results will then be compared with the level of effort needed to reasonably predict the spacial and temporal movement of radionuclides in the groundwater environment

  9. Striatal volume predicts level of video game skill acquisition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Kirk I; Boot, Walter R; Basak, Chandramallika; Neider, Mark B; Prakash, Ruchika S; Voss, Michelle W; Graybiel, Ann M; Simons, Daniel J; Fabiani, Monica; Gratton, Gabriele; Kramer, Arthur F

    2010-11-01

    Video game skills transfer to other tasks, but individual differences in performance and in learning and transfer rates make it difficult to identify the source of transfer benefits. We asked whether variability in initial acquisition and of improvement in performance on a demanding video game, the Space Fortress game, could be predicted by variations in the pretraining volume of either of 2 key brain regions implicated in learning and memory: the striatum, implicated in procedural learning and cognitive flexibility, and the hippocampus, implicated in declarative memory. We found that hippocampal volumes did not predict learning improvement but that striatal volumes did. Moreover, for the striatum, the volumes of the dorsal striatum predicted improvement in performance but the volumes of the ventral striatum did not. Both ventral and dorsal striatal volumes predicted early acquisition rates. Furthermore, this early-stage correlation between striatal volumes and learning held regardless of the cognitive flexibility demands of the game versions, whereas the predictive power of the dorsal striatal volumes held selectively for performance improvements in a game version emphasizing cognitive flexibility. These findings suggest a neuroanatomical basis for the superiority of training strategies that promote cognitive flexibility and transfer to untrained tasks.

  10. Prediction of the handling qualities and pilot-induced oscillation rating levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea-Irina AFLOARE

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The basis for the aviation development is the ambition of increasing the efficiency and safety of flight. Improvements include flight performance and extended flight envelope, new flight regimes and tasks. However, all of these factors lead to the increase of pilot workload which can reduce the accuracy and safety of flight. Fixed and rotary wing pilots are being confronted with potential instabilities or with annoying limit cycle oscillations, known as Aircraft/Rotorcraft Pilot Couplings (A/RPC that arise from the effort of controlling the vehicle with high response actuators. This paper deals with the unified theory of predicting handling qualities level (HQSF and pilot-induced oscillation rating levels (PIOR based on the structural model of human operator, developed by Hess. HQSF and PIOR are capable of capturing the prominent features of human pilot dynamics characteristics for a large class of aerial vehicles and tasks. The key element in this method is to unify the topics of vehicle handling qualities and RPC/PIO, applied to the analysis of a medium weight helicopter model.

  11. An individual-level meta-analysis assessing the impact of community-level sanitation access on child stunting, anemia, and diarrhea: Evidence from DHS and MICS surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, David A; Grisham, Thomas; Slawsky, Erik; Narine, Lutchmie

    2017-06-01

    A lack of access to sanitation is an important risk factor child health, facilitating fecal-oral transmission of pathogens including soil-transmitted helminthes and various causes of diarrheal disease. We conducted a meta-analysis of cross-sectional surveys to determine the impact that community-level sanitation access has on child health for children with and without household sanitation access. Using 301 two-stage demographic health surveys and multiple indicator cluster surveys conducted between 1990 and 2015 we calculated the sanitation access in the community as the proportion of households in the sampled cluster that had household access to any type of sanitation facility. We then conducted exact matching of children based on various predictors of living in a community with high access to sanitation. Using logistic regression with the matched group as a random intercept we examined the association between the child health outcomes of stunted growth, any anemia, moderate or severe anemia, and diarrhea in the previous two weeks and the exposure of living in a community with varying degrees of community-level sanitation access. For children with household-level sanitation access, living in a community with 100% sanitation access was associated with lowered odds of stunting (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.97, 95%; confidence interval (CI) = 0.94-1.00; n = 14,153 matched groups, 1,175,167 children), any anemia (AOR = 0.73; 95% CI = 0.67-0.78; n = 5,319 matched groups, 299,033 children), moderate or severe anemia (AOR = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.68-0.77; n = 5,319 matched groups, 299,033 children) and diarrhea (AOR = 0.94; 95% CI = 0.91-0.97); n = 16,379 matched groups, 1,603,731 children) compared to living in a community with sanitation access. For children without household-level sanitation access, living in communities with 0% sanitation access was associated with higher odds of stunting (AOR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.02-1.06; n = 14,153 matched groups, 1,175,167 children), any

  12. Predicting fuel poverty at a small-area level in England

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fahmy, Eldin; Gordon, David; Patsios, Demi

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes the development of a series of models for predicting the incidence of fuel poverty in England at a small-area level and examines the adequacy of the modelled results in informing our understanding of the geography of fuel poverty. This paper summarises the development of alternative approaches to model specification based upon different approaches to the treatment of household income. Since 2003 small-area fuel poverty estimates have been widely used to inform affordable warmth policies and local targeting of fuel poverty programs. Whilst improvements in data sources and methods in recent years provide an opportunity to better understand the spatial distribution of fuel poverty, these analyses suggest that our understanding of the incidence and spatial distribution of fuel poverty is highly sensitive to the way in which household incomes are measured. - Highlights: → The proposed models estimate fuel poverty incidence at a small-area level. → This is necessary in order to accurately target local fuel poverty interventions. → Fuel poverty estimates are highly sensitive to differences in income measurement. → Fewer children and more pensioners are fuel poor using EHCS income measures. → More children and fewer pensioners are fuel poor using HBAI income measures.

  13. Do Natives' Beliefs About Refugees' Education Level Affect Attitudes Toward Refugees? Evidence from Randomized Survey Experiments

    OpenAIRE

    Lergetporer, Philipp; Piopiunik, Marc; Simon, Lisa

    2017-01-01

    In recent years, Europe has experienced an unprecedented influx of refugees. While natives’ attitudes toward refugees are decisive for the political feasibility of asylum policies, little is known about how these attitudes are shaped by refugees’ characteristics. We conducted survey experiments with more than 5,000 university students in Germany in which we exogenously shifted participants’ beliefs about refugees’ education level through information provision. Consistent with economic theory,...

  14. Hospital safety climate surveys: measurement issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Jeanette; Sarac, Cakil; Flin, Rhona

    2010-12-01

    Organizational safety culture relates to behavioural norms in the workplace and is usually assessed by safety climate surveys. These can be a diagnostic indicator on the state of safety in a hospital. This review examines recent studies using staff surveys of hospital safety climate, focussing on measurement issues. Four questionnaires (hospital survey on patient safety culture, safety attitudes questionnaire, patient safety climate in healthcare organizations, hospital safety climate scale), with acceptable psychometric properties, are now applied across countries and clinical settings. Comparisons for benchmarking must be made with caution in case of questionnaire modifications. Increasing attention is being paid to the unit and hospital level wherein distinct cultures may be located, as well as to associated measurement and study design issues. Predictive validity of safety climate is tested against safety behaviours/outcomes, with some relationships reported, although effects may be specific to professional groups/units. Few studies test the role of intervening variables that could influence the effect of climate on outcomes. Hospital climate studies are becoming a key component of healthcare safety management systems. Large datasets have established more reliable instruments that allow a more focussed investigation of the role of culture in the improvement and maintenance of staff's safety perceptions within units, as well as within hospitals.

  15. Demonstrating the use of web analytics and an online survey to understand user groups of a national network of river level data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macleod, Christopher Kit; Braga, Joao; Arts, Koen; Ioris, Antonio; Han, Xiwu; Sripada, Yaji; van der Wal, Rene

    2016-04-01

    The number of local, national and international networks of online environmental sensors are rapidly increasing. Where environmental data are made available online for public consumption, there is a need to advance our understanding of the relationships between the supply of and the different demands for such information. Understanding how individuals and groups of users are using online information resources may provide valuable insights into their activities and decision making. As part of the 'dot.rural wikiRivers' project we investigated the potential of web analytics and an online survey to generate insights into the use of a national network of river level data from across Scotland. These sources of online information were collected alongside phone interviews with volunteers sampled from the online survey, and interviews with providers of online river level data; as part of a larger project that set out to help improve the communication of Scotland's online river data. Our web analytics analysis was based on over 100 online sensors which are maintained by the Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA). Through use of Google Analytics data accessed via the R Ganalytics package we assessed: if the quality of data provided by Google Analytics free service is good enough for research purposes; if we could demonstrate what sensors were being used, when and where; how the nature and pattern of sensor data may affect web traffic; and whether we can identify and profile these users based on information from traffic sources. Web analytics data consists of a series of quantitative metrics which capture and summarize various dimensions of the traffic to a certain web page or set of pages. Examples of commonly used metrics include the number of total visits to a site and the number of total page views. Our analyses of the traffic sources from 2009 to 2011 identified several different major user groups. To improve our understanding of how the use of this national

  16. On the recovery of the local group motion from galaxy redshift surveys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nusser, Adi [Physics Department and the Asher Space Science Institute-Technion, Haifa 32000 (Israel); Davis, Marc [Departments of Astronomy and Physics, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Branchini, Enzo, E-mail: adi@physics.technion.ac.il, E-mail: mdavis@berkeley.edu, E-mail: branchin@fis.uniroma3.it [Department of Physics, Università Roma Tre, Via della Vasca Navale 84, I-00146 Rome (Italy)

    2014-06-20

    There is an ∼150 km s{sup –1} discrepancy between the measured motion of the Local Group (LG) of galaxies with respect to the cosmic microwave background and the linear theory prediction based on the gravitational force field of the large-scale structure in full-sky redshift surveys. We perform a variety of tests which show that the LG motion cannot be recovered to better than 150-200 km s{sup –1} in amplitude and within ≈10° in direction. The tests rely on catalogs of mock galaxies identified in the Millennium simulation using semi-analytic galaxy formation models. We compare these results to the K{sub s} = 11.75 Two-Mass Galaxy Redshift Survey, which provides the deepest and most complete all-sky spatial distribution of galaxies with spectroscopic redshifts available thus far. In our analysis, we use a new concise relation for deriving the LG motion and bulk flow from the true distribution of galaxies in redshift space. Our results show that the main source of uncertainty is the small effective depth of surveys like the Two-Mass Redshift Survey (2MRS), which prevents a proper sampling of the large-scale structure beyond ∼100 h {sup –1} Mpc. Deeper redshift surveys are needed to reach the 'convergence scale' of ≈250 h {sup –1} Mpc in a ΛCDM universe. Deeper surveys would also mitigate the impact of the 'Kaiser rocket' which, in a survey like 2MRS, remains a significant source of uncertainty. Thanks to the quiet and moderate density environment of the LG, purely dynamical uncertainties of the linear predictions are subdominant at the level of ∼90 km s{sup –1}. Finally, we show that deviations from linear galaxy biasing and shot noise errors provide a minor contribution to the total error budget.

  17. Predicting ready biodegradability of premanufacture notice chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boethling, Robert S; Lynch, David G; Thom, Gary C

    2003-04-01

    Chemical substances other than pesticides, drugs, and food additives are regulated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), but the United States does not require that new substances be tested automatically for such critical properties as biodegradability. The resulting lack of submitted data has fostered the development of estimation methods, and the BioWIN models for predicting biodegradability from chemical structure have played a prominent role in premanufacture notice (PMN) review. Until now, validation efforts have used only the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) test data and have not included all models. To assess BioWIN performance with PMN substances, we assembled a database of PMNs for which ready biodegradation data had been submitted over the period 1995 through 2001. The 305 PMN structures are highly varied and pose major challenges to chemical property estimation. Despite the variability of ready biodegradation tests, the use of at least six different test methods, and widely varying quality of submitted data, accuracy of four of six BioWIN models (MITI linear, MITI nonlinear, survey ultimate, survey primary) was in the 80+% range for predicting ready biodegradability. Greater accuracy (>90%) can be achieved by using model estimates only when the four models agree (true for 3/4 of the PMNs). The BioWIN linear and nonlinear probability models did not perform as well even when classification criteria were optimized. The results suggest that the MITI and survey BioWIN models are suitable for use in screening-level applications.

  18. ReactionPredictor: prediction of complex chemical reactions at the mechanistic level using machine learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayala, Matthew A; Baldi, Pierre

    2012-10-22

    Proposing reasonable mechanisms and predicting the course of chemical reactions is important to the practice of organic chemistry. Approaches to reaction prediction have historically used obfuscating representations and manually encoded patterns or rules. Here we present ReactionPredictor, a machine learning approach to reaction prediction that models elementary, mechanistic reactions as interactions between approximate molecular orbitals (MOs). A training data set of productive reactions known to occur at reasonable rates and yields and verified by inclusion in the literature or textbooks is derived from an existing rule-based system and expanded upon with manual curation from graduate level textbooks. Using this training data set of complex polar, hypervalent, radical, and pericyclic reactions, a two-stage machine learning prediction framework is trained and validated. In the first stage, filtering models trained at the level of individual MOs are used to reduce the space of possible reactions to consider. In the second stage, ranking models over the filtered space of possible reactions are used to order the reactions such that the productive reactions are the top ranked. The resulting model, ReactionPredictor, perfectly ranks polar reactions 78.1% of the time and recovers all productive reactions 95.7% of the time when allowing for small numbers of errors. Pericyclic and radical reactions are perfectly ranked 85.8% and 77.0% of the time, respectively, rising to >93% recovery for both reaction types with a small number of allowed errors. Decisions about which of the polar, pericyclic, or radical reaction type ranking models to use can be made with >99% accuracy. Finally, for multistep reaction pathways, we implement the first mechanistic pathway predictor using constrained tree-search to discover a set of reasonable mechanistic steps from given reactants to given products. Webserver implementations of both the single step and pathway versions of Reaction

  19. A Personalized Approach to Biological Therapy Using Prediction of Clinical Response Based on MRP8/14 Serum Complex Levels in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S C Nair

    Full Text Available Measurement of MRP8/14 serum levels has shown potential in predicting clinical response to different biological agents in rheumatoid arthritis (RA. We aimed to develop a treatment algorithm based on a prediction score using MRP8/14 measurements and clinical parameters predictive for response to different biological agents.Baseline serum levels of MRP8/14 were measured in 170 patients starting treatment with infliximab, adalimumab or rituximab. We used logistic regression analysis to develop a predictive score for clinical response at 16 weeks. MRP8/14 levels along with clinical variables at baseline were investigated. We also investigated how the predictive effect of MRP8/14 was modified by drug type. A treatment algorithm was developed based on categorizing the expected response per drug type as high, intermediate or low for each patient and optimal treatment was defined. Finally, we present the utility of using this treatment algorithm in clinical practice.The probability of response increased with higher baseline MRP8/14 complex levels (OR = 1.39, differentially between the TNF-blockers and rituximab (OR of interaction term = 0.78, and also increased with higher DAS28 at baseline (OR = 1.28. Rheumatoid factor positivity, functional disability (a higher HAQ, and previous use of a TNF-inhibitor decreased the probability of response. Based on the treatment algorithm 80 patients would have been recommended for anti-TNF treatment, 8 for rituximab, 13 for another biological treatment (other than TNFi or rituximab and for 69 no recommendation was made. The predicted response rates matched the observed response in the cohort well. On group level the predicted response based on the algorithm resulted in a modest 10% higher response rate in our cohort with much higher differences in response probability in individual patients treated contrary to treatment recommendation.Prediction of response using MRP8/14 levels along with clinical predictors has

  20. The use of repassivation potential in predicting the performance of high-level nuclear waste container materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sridhar, N.; Dunn, D.; Cragnolino, G.

    1995-01-01

    Localized corrosion in aqueous environments forms an important bounding condition for the performance assessment of high-level waste (HLW) container materials. A predictive methodology using repassivation potential is examined in this paper. It is shown, based on long-term (continuing for over 11 months) testing of alloy 825, that repassivation potential of deep pits or crevices is a conservative and robust parameter for the prediction of localized corrosion. In contrast, initiation potentials measured by short-term tests are non-conservative and highly sensitive to several surface and environmental factors. Corrosion data from various field tests and plant equipment performance are analyzed in terms of the applicability of repassivation potential. The applicability of repassivation potential for predicting the occurrence of stress corrosion cracking (SCC) and intergranular corrosion in chloride containing environments is also examined

  1. Comparison of predicted versus measured dose rates for low-level radioactive waste cask shipments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macher, Martin S.

    1992-01-01

    Shippers of low-level radioactive waste must select casks which will provide sufficient shielding to keep dose rates below the federal limit of 10 mr/hr at 2 meters from the vehicle. Chem-Nuclear Systems, Inc. uses a cask selection methodology which is based on shielding analysis code predictions with an additional factor of safety applied to compensate for inhomogeneities in the waste, uncertainties in waste characterization, and inaccuracy in the calculational methods. This proven cask selection methodology is explained and suggested factors of safety are presented based on comparisons of predicted and measured dose rates. A safety factor of 2 is shown to be generally appropriate for relatively homogeneous waste and a safety factor of between 3 and 4 is shown to be generally appropriate for relatively inhomogeneous wastes. (author)

  2. Teachers' level of ICT integration in teaching and learning: A survey in Malaysian private preschool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamaruddin, Kamarulzaman; Abdullah, Che Anuar Che; Idris, Mohd Noor; Nawi, Mohd Nasrun Mohd

    2017-10-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the level of ICT integration in teaching and learning in private preschool in Malaysia. A total 61 teachers from 10 private preschools in the district of Mualim in the state of Perak Malaysia were randomly chosen in this survey research. The findings revealed that most of the teachers were knowledgeable about the educational ICT application. However, the findings revealed that the teachers' level of ICT integration is still at the low level. This is based on the results of a study that most of the teachers are normal users and ICT application was used for their own work rather than using it in their teaching and learning in the classroom. In addition, the findings indicated that teachers' awareness towards the important of ICT in teaching and learning is not encouraging and this issue is related to the training provided, equipment and time constraints that hinder the integration of ICT.

  3. Surveying dwellings with high indoor radon levels: a BRE guide to radon remedial measures in existing dwellings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scivyer, C.R.

    1993-01-01

    This report is one of a series giving practical advice on methods of reducing radom levels in existing dwellings. It is aimed specifically at builders, surveyors and building specialists surveying for and prescribing remedial measures for dwellings. It supplements guidance available in 'The householders' guide to radon, obtainable from local environmental health officers or from the Department of the Environment. (Author)

  4. Short-term prediction of rain attenuation level and volatility in Earth-to-Satellite links at EHF band

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. de Montera

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows how nonlinear models originally developed in the finance field can be used to predict rain attenuation level and volatility in Earth-to-Satellite links operating at the Extremely High Frequencies band (EHF, 20–50 GHz. A common approach to solving this problem is to consider that the prediction error corresponds only to scintillations, whose variance is assumed to be constant. Nevertheless, this assumption does not seem to be realistic because of the heteroscedasticity of error time series: the variance of the prediction error is found to be time-varying and has to be modeled. Since rain attenuation time series behave similarly to certain stocks or foreign exchange rates, a switching ARIMA/GARCH model was implemented. The originality of this model is that not only the attenuation level, but also the error conditional distribution are predicted. It allows an accurate upper-bound of the future attenuation to be estimated in real time that minimizes the cost of Fade Mitigation Techniques (FMT and therefore enables the communication system to reach a high percentage of availability. The performance of the switching ARIMA/GARCH model was estimated using a measurement database of the Olympus satellite 20/30 GHz beacons and this model is shown to outperform significantly other existing models.

    The model also includes frequency scaling from the downlink frequency to the uplink frequency. The attenuation effects (gases, clouds and rain are first separated with a neural network and then scaled using specific scaling factors. As to the resulting uplink prediction error, the error contribution of the frequency scaling step is shown to be larger than that of the downlink prediction, indicating that further study should focus on improving the accuracy of the scaling factor.

  5. Short-term prediction of rain attenuation level and volatility in Earth-to-Satellite links at EHF band

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Montera, L.; Mallet, C.; Barthès, L.; Golé, P.

    2008-08-01

    This paper shows how nonlinear models originally developed in the finance field can be used to predict rain attenuation level and volatility in Earth-to-Satellite links operating at the Extremely High Frequencies band (EHF, 20 50 GHz). A common approach to solving this problem is to consider that the prediction error corresponds only to scintillations, whose variance is assumed to be constant. Nevertheless, this assumption does not seem to be realistic because of the heteroscedasticity of error time series: the variance of the prediction error is found to be time-varying and has to be modeled. Since rain attenuation time series behave similarly to certain stocks or foreign exchange rates, a switching ARIMA/GARCH model was implemented. The originality of this model is that not only the attenuation level, but also the error conditional distribution are predicted. It allows an accurate upper-bound of the future attenuation to be estimated in real time that minimizes the cost of Fade Mitigation Techniques (FMT) and therefore enables the communication system to reach a high percentage of availability. The performance of the switching ARIMA/GARCH model was estimated using a measurement database of the Olympus satellite 20/30 GHz beacons and this model is shown to outperform significantly other existing models. The model also includes frequency scaling from the downlink frequency to the uplink frequency. The attenuation effects (gases, clouds and rain) are first separated with a neural network and then scaled using specific scaling factors. As to the resulting uplink prediction error, the error contribution of the frequency scaling step is shown to be larger than that of the downlink prediction, indicating that further study should focus on improving the accuracy of the scaling factor.

  6. Accurate microRNA target prediction correlates with protein repression levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simossis Victor A

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background MicroRNAs are small endogenously expressed non-coding RNA molecules that regulate target gene expression through translation repression or messenger RNA degradation. MicroRNA regulation is performed through pairing of the microRNA to sites in the messenger RNA of protein coding genes. Since experimental identification of miRNA target genes poses difficulties, computational microRNA target prediction is one of the key means in deciphering the role of microRNAs in development and disease. Results DIANA-microT 3.0 is an algorithm for microRNA target prediction which is based on several parameters calculated individually for each microRNA and combines conserved and non-conserved microRNA recognition elements into a final prediction score, which correlates with protein production fold change. Specifically, for each predicted interaction the program reports a signal to noise ratio and a precision score which can be used as an indication of the false positive rate of the prediction. Conclusion Recently, several computational target prediction programs were benchmarked based on a set of microRNA target genes identified by the pSILAC method. In this assessment DIANA-microT 3.0 was found to achieve the highest precision among the most widely used microRNA target prediction programs reaching approximately 66%. The DIANA-microT 3.0 prediction results are available online in a user friendly web server at http://www.microrna.gr/microT

  7. Prediction and comparison of noise levels from ground and elevated flare systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obasi, E.

    2009-01-01

    Flaring is a process to dispose of hydrocarbons during clean-up, emergency shut downs or dispose a small volume waste streams of mixed gasses that cannot easily or safely be separated. This presentation discussed flaring as a noise issue. It focused on flaring noise characterization; flare noise modeling; flare sound power levels; and flare sound pressure level comparison at a distance of 1.5 km. The presentation included a photograph of flaring at a gas plant in Nigeria. The presentation listed some of the potential health effects associated with long term exposure to excessive noise, such as hearing loss; headaches; stress; fatigue; sleep disturbance; and high blood pressure. Companies flare gas to dispose waste gases in a safe and reliable manner through combustion and to depressurize gas lines during maintenance and emergencies. This presentation also discussed ground and elevated flares; components of flare noise characterization; and key factors affecting flare noise. A model to predict flaring noise was also presented. It demonstrated that at the same gas mass flow rate, the noise level from elevated flare stacks are significantly higher than ground flares. tabs., figs.

  8. Prediction and comparison of noise levels from ground and elevated flare systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Obasi, E. [Stantec Consulting Ltd., Surrey, BC (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    Flaring is a process to dispose of hydrocarbons during clean-up, emergency shut downs or dispose a small volume waste streams of mixed gasses that cannot easily or safely be separated. This presentation discussed flaring as a noise issue. It focused on flaring noise characterization; flare noise modeling; flare sound power levels; and flare sound pressure level comparison at a distance of 1.5 km. The presentation included a photograph of flaring at a gas plant in Nigeria. The presentation listed some of the potential health effects associated with long term exposure to excessive noise, such as hearing loss; headaches; stress; fatigue; sleep disturbance; and high blood pressure. Companies flare gas to dispose waste gases in a safe and reliable manner through combustion and to depressurize gas lines during maintenance and emergencies. This presentation also discussed ground and elevated flares; components of flare noise characterization; and key factors affecting flare noise. A model to predict flaring noise was also presented. It demonstrated that at the same gas mass flow rate, the noise level from elevated flare stacks are significantly higher than ground flares. tabs., figs.

  9. Prediction of response to medical therapy by serum soluble (pro)renin receptor levels in Graves' disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizuguchi, Yuki; Morimoto, Satoshi; Kimura, Shihori; Takano, Noriyoshi; Yamashita, Kaoru; Seki, Yasufumi; Bokuda, Kanako; Yatabe, Midori; Yatabe, Junichi; Watanabe, Daisuke; Ando, Takashi; Ichihara, Atsuhiro

    2018-01-01

    Antithyroid drugs are generally selected as the first-line treatment for Graves' Disease (GD); however, the existence of patients showing resistance or severe side effects to these drugs is an important issue to be solved. The (pro)renin receptor [(P)RR] is a multi-functional protein that activates the tissue renin-angiotensin system and is an essential constituent of vacuolar H+-ATPase, necessary for the autophagy-lysosome pathway. (P)RR is cleaved to soluble (s)(P)RR, which reflects the status of (P)RR expression. In this retrospective study, we aimed to investigate whether serum s(P)RR concentration can be used as a biomarker to predict the outcome of antithyroid drug treatment in GD patients. Serum s(P)RR levels were measured in 54 untreated GD patients and 47 control participants. Effects of medical treatment with antithyroid drugs on these levels were investigated in GD patients. Serum s(P)RR levels were significantly higher in patients with Graves' disease than in control subjects (PGraves' disease. High serum s(P)RR levels were associated with resistance to antithyroid drug treatment, suggesting that serum s(P)RR concentration can be used as a useful biomarker to predict the outcome of antithyroid drug treatment in these patients. Patients with Graves' disease with low body mass index showed higher levels of serum soluble (pro)renin receptor levels than those with high body mass index. In addition, in patients with Graves' disease, serum triglyceride levels were negatively correlated with serum soluble (pro)renin receptor levels. All these data indicated an association between low nutrient condition due to hyperthyroidism and increased (pro)renin receptor expression in these patients, suggesting that (pro)renin receptor expression could be increased in the process of stimulating intracellular energy production via activating autophagy function to compensate energy loss.

  10. Use of Geodetic Surveys of Leveling Lines and Dry Tilt Arrays to Study Faults and Volcanoes in Undergraduate Field Geophysics Classes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polet, J.; Alvarez, K.; Elizondo, K.

    2017-12-01

    In the early 1980's and 1990's numerous leveling lines and dry tilt arrays were installed throughout Central and Southern California by United States Geological Survey scientists and other researchers (e.g. Sylvester, 1985). These lines or triangular arrays of geodetic monuments commonly straddle faults or have been installed close to volcanic areas, where significant motion is expected over relatively short time periods. Over the past year, we have incorporated geodetic surveys of these arrays as part of our field exercises in undergraduate and graduate level classes on topics such as shallow subsurface geophysics and field geophysics. In some cases, the monuments themselves first had to be located based on only limited information, testing students' Brunton use and map reading skills. Monuments were then surveyed using total stations and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers, using a variety of experimental procedures. The surveys were documented with tables, photos, maps and graphs in field reports, as well as in wiki pages created by student groups for a geophysics field class this June. The measurements were processed by the students and compared with similar data from surveys conducted soon after installation of the arrays, to analyze the deformation that occurred over the last few decades. The different geodetic techniques were also compared and an error analysis was conducted. The analysis and processing of these data challenged and enhanced students' quantitative literacy and technology skills. The final geodetic measurements are being incorporated into several senior and MSc thesis projects. Further surveys are planned for additional classes, in topics that could include seismology, geodesy, volcanology and global geophysics. We are also considering additional technologies, such as structure from motion (SfM) photogrammetry.

  11. Prostate cancer prediction using the random forest algorithm that takes into account transrectal ultrasound findings, age, and serum levels of prostate-specific antigen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Li-Hong; Chen, Pei-Ran; Gou, Zhong-Ping; Li, Yong-Zhong; Li, Mei; Xiang, Liang-Cheng; Feng, Ping

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study is to evaluate the ability of the random forest algorithm that combines data on transrectal ultrasound findings, age, and serum levels of prostate-specific antigen to predict prostate carcinoma. Clinico-demographic data were analyzed for 941 patients with prostate diseases treated at our hospital, including age, serum prostate-specific antigen levels, transrectal ultrasound findings, and pathology diagnosis based on ultrasound-guided needle biopsy of the prostate. These data were compared between patients with and without prostate cancer using the Chi-square test, and then entered into the random forest model to predict diagnosis. Patients with and without prostate cancer differed significantly in age and serum prostate-specific antigen levels (P prostate-specific antigen and ultrasound predicted prostate cancer with an accuracy of 83.10%, sensitivity of 65.64%, and specificity of 93.83%. Positive predictive value was 86.72%, and negative predictive value was 81.64%. By integrating age, prostate-specific antigen levels and transrectal ultrasound findings, the random forest algorithm shows better diagnostic performance for prostate cancer than either diagnostic indicator on its own. This algorithm may help improve diagnosis of the disease by identifying patients at high risk for biopsy.

  12. In vitro induction of alkaline phosphatase levels predicts in vivo bone forming capacity of human bone marrow stromal cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henk-Jan Prins

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available One of the applications of bone marrow stromal cells (BMSCs that are produced by ex vivo expansion is for use in in vivo bone tissue engineering. Cultured stromal cells are a mixture of cells at different stages of commitment and expansion capability, leading to a heterogeneous cell population that each time can differ in the potential to form in vivo bone. A parameter that predicts for in vivo bone forming capacity is thus far lacking. We employed single colony-derived BMSC cultures to identify such predictive parameters. Using limiting dilution, we have produced sixteen single CFU-F derived BMSC cultures from human bone marrow and found that only five of these formed bone in vivo. The single colony-derived BMSC strains were tested for proliferation, osteogenic-, adipogenic- and chondrogenic differentiation capacity and the expression of a variety of associated markers. The only robust predictors of in vivo bone forming capacity were the induction of alkaline phosphatase, (ALP mRNA levels and ALP activity during in vitro osteogenic differentiation. The predictive value of in vitro ALP induction was confirmed by analyzing “bulk-cultured” BMSCs from various bone marrow biopsies. Our findings show that in BMSCs, the additional increase in ALP levels over basal levels during in vitro osteogenic differentiation is predictive of in vivo performance.

  13. Extreme value modeling for the analysis and prediction of time series of extreme tropospheric ozone levels: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escarela, Gabriel

    2012-06-01

    The occurrence of high concentrations of tropospheric ozone is considered as one of the most important issues of air management programs. The prediction of dangerous ozone levels for the public health and the environment, along with the assessment of air quality control programs aimed at reducing their severity, is of considerable interest to the scientific community and to policy makers. The chemical mechanisms of tropospheric ozone formation are complex, and highly variable meteorological conditions contribute additionally to difficulties in accurate study and prediction of high levels of ozone. Statistical methods offer an effective approach to understand the problem and eventually improve the ability to predict maximum levels of ozone. In this paper an extreme value model is developed to study data sets that consist of periodically collected maxima of tropospheric ozone concentrations and meteorological variables. The methods are applied to daily tropospheric ozone maxima in Guadalajara City, Mexico, for the period January 1997 to December 2006. The model adjusts the daily rate of change in ozone for concurrent impacts of seasonality and present and past meteorological conditions, which include surface temperature, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and ozone. The results indicate that trend, annual effects, and key meteorological variables along with some interactions explain the variation in daily ozone maxima. Prediction performance assessments yield reasonably good results.

  14. Bangladesh’s dynamic coastal regions and sea-level rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugh Brammer

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The physical geography of Bangladesh’s coastal area is more diverse and dynamic than is generally recognised. Failure to recognise this has led to serious misconceptions about the potential impacts of a rising sea-level on Bangladesh with global warming. This situation has been aggravated by accounts giving incorrect information on current rates of coastal erosion and land subsidence. This paper describes physical conditions within individual physiographic regions in Bangladesh’s coastal area based on ground-surveyed information, and it reviews possible area-specific mitigation measures to counter predicted rates of sea-level rise in the 21st century. Two important conclusions are drawn: the adoption of appropriate measures based on knowledge of the physical geography of potentially-affected areas could significantly reduce the currently-predicted displacement of many millions of people; and the impacts of a slowly-rising sea-level are currently much less than those generated by rapidly increasing population pressure on Bangladesh’s available land and water resources and by exposure to existing environmental hazards, and the latter problems need priority attention.

  15. Prediction of the safety level in a tritium processing facility through predictive maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anghel, Vasile

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The safety level of a nuclear facility for personnel and environment depends generally on the technological process quality of operation and maintenance and particularly on several technical, technological, economic, and human factors. The role of maintenance is fundamental because it is determined by all the technical, economic and human elements as parts of an integrated system dominated by an important feedback from upstream activities which eventually define the life cycle of the nuclear facility considered. In the maintenance activity as in case of any dynamic area, new elements may appear which, sometimes, require new methods of approach. For considered installation which is a Nuclear Detritiation Plant (NDP) operating as a division of the National Research and Development Institute for Cryogenics and Isotopic Technologies - ICSI, Rm.Valcea, in order to ensure a safety level in operation as high as possible through predictive maintenance, the fuzzy theory and software LabVIEW were applied. The final aim is to achieve the best practices in maintenance of the tritium processing plant. The safety in operation of the NDP equipment and installations is directly related with the maintenance achieved by improving the reliability through methods and advanced techniques. The maintainability is the capacity of an industrial product, in given utilization conditions, to be maintained and re-established up to achieve specified functions. In general the reliability on some interval is a probability conditioned by good operation at the beginning of the interval, representing thus the probability as the element which operated at t = t 0 to operate in the interval (t 0 , t 1 ). The failure is a fundamental event in the reliability theory. Breakdown (failure) is understood as the stop process of the function required from a given product, the failure representing the effect upon that process. The operation of a product on a certain duration can be a 'success' or a

  16. Lending Competition and Relationship Banking: Evidence from Japanese Prefectural Level Data

    OpenAIRE

    Ogura, Yoshiaki; Yamori, Nobuyoshi

    2009-01-01

    The question of whether more competition among banks increases relationship banking, which is predicted to improve credit availability for informationally opaque firms in theory, is a controversial issue in the banking literature. By using firm-level survey data in Japan, this paper provides evidence for the negative correlation between lending competition and the provision of relationship banking . This paper raises the question whether fierce interbank competition is always beneficial for...

  17. Predicting protein folding pathways at the mesoscopic level based on native interactions between secondary structure elements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sze Sing-Hoi

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Since experimental determination of protein folding pathways remains difficult, computational techniques are often used to simulate protein folding. Most current techniques to predict protein folding pathways are computationally intensive and are suitable only for small proteins. Results By assuming that the native structure of a protein is known and representing each intermediate conformation as a collection of fully folded structures in which each of them contains a set of interacting secondary structure elements, we show that it is possible to significantly reduce the conformation space while still being able to predict the most energetically favorable folding pathway of large proteins with hundreds of residues at the mesoscopic level, including the pig muscle phosphoglycerate kinase with 416 residues. The model is detailed enough to distinguish between different folding pathways of structurally very similar proteins, including the streptococcal protein G and the peptostreptococcal protein L. The model is also able to recognize the differences between the folding pathways of protein G and its two structurally similar variants NuG1 and NuG2, which are even harder to distinguish. We show that this strategy can produce accurate predictions on many other proteins with experimentally determined intermediate folding states. Conclusion Our technique is efficient enough to predict folding pathways for both large and small proteins at the mesoscopic level. Such a strategy is often the only feasible choice for large proteins. A software program implementing this strategy (SSFold is available at http://faculty.cs.tamu.edu/shsze/ssfold.

  18. A State-Space Approach to Optimal Level-Crossing Prediction for Linear Gaussian Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Rodney Alexander

    2009-01-01

    In many complex engineered systems, the ability to give an alarm prior to impending critical events is of great importance. These critical events may have varying degrees of severity, and in fact they may occur during normal system operation. In this article, we investigate approximations to theoretically optimal methods of designing alarm systems for the prediction of level-crossings by a zero-mean stationary linear dynamic system driven by Gaussian noise. An optimal alarm system is designed to elicit the fewest false alarms for a fixed detection probability. This work introduces the use of Kalman filtering in tandem with the optimal level-crossing problem. It is shown that there is a negligible loss in overall accuracy when using approximations to the theoretically optimal predictor, at the advantage of greatly reduced computational complexity. I

  19. Gender differences in public and private drinking contexts: a multi-level GENACIS analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, Jason C; Roberts, Sarah C M; Greenfield, Thomas K; Korcha, Rachael; Ye, Yu; Nayak, Madhabika B

    2010-05-01

    This multi-national study hypothesized that higher levels of country-level gender equality would predict smaller differences in the frequency of women's compared to men's drinking in public (like bars and restaurants) settings and possibly private (home or party) settings. GENACIS project survey data with drinking contexts included 22 countries in Europe (8); the Americas (7); Asia (3); Australasia (2), and Africa (2), analyzed using hierarchical linear models (individuals nested within country). Age, gender and marital status were individual predictors; country-level gender equality as well as equality in economic participation, education, and political participation, and reproductive autonomy and context of violence against women measures were country-level variables. In separate models, more reproductive autonomy, economic participation, and educational attainment and less violence against women predicted smaller differences in drinking in public settings. Once controlling for country-level economic status, only equality in economic participation predicted the size of the gender difference. Most country-level variables did not explain the gender difference in frequency of drinking in private settings. Where gender equality predicted this difference, the direction of the findings was opposite from the direction in public settings, with more equality predicting a larger gender difference, although this relationship was no longer significant after controlling for country-level economic status. Findings suggest that country-level gender equality may influence gender differences in drinking. However, the effects of gender equality on drinking may depend on the specific alcohol measure, in this case drinking context, as well as on the aspect of gender equality considered. Similar studies that use only global measures of gender equality may miss key relationships. We consider potential implications for alcohol related consequences, policy and public health.

  20. Case studies in archaeological predictive modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, Jacobus Wilhelmus Hermanus Philippus

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis, a collection of papers is put together dealing with various quantitative aspects of predictive modelling and archaeological prospection. Among the issues covered are the effects of survey bias on the archaeological data used for predictive modelling, and the complexities of testing

  1. Survey of waste package designs for disposal of high-level waste/spent fuel in selected foreign countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, K.J.; Lakey, L.T.; Silviera, D.J.

    1989-09-01

    This report presents the results of a survey of the waste package strategies for seven western countries with active nuclear power programs that are pursuing disposal of spent nuclear fuel or high-level wastes in deep geologic rock formations. Information, current as of January 1989, is given on the leading waste package concepts for Belgium, Canada, France, Federal Republic of Germany, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. All but two of the countries surveyed (France and the UK) have developed design concepts for their repositories, but none of the countries has developed its final waste repository or package concept. Waste package concepts are under study in all the countries surveyed, except the UK. Most of the countries have not yet developed a reference concept and are considering several concepts. Most of the information presented in this report is for the current reference or leading concepts. All canisters for the wastes are cylindrical, and are made of metal (stainless steel, mild steel, titanium, or copper). The canister concepts have relatively thin walls, except those for spent fuel in Sweden and Germany. Diagrams are presented for the reference or leading concepts for canisters for the countries surveyed. The expected lifetimes of the conceptual canisters in their respective disposal environment are typically 500 to 1,000 years, with Sweden's copper canister expected to last as long as one million years. Overpack containers that would contain the canisters are being considered in some of the countries. All of the countries surveyed, except one (Germany) are currently planning to utilize a buffer material (typically bentonite) surrounding the disposal package in the repository. Most of the countries surveyed plan to limit the maximum temperature in the buffer material to about 100 degree C. 52 refs., 9 figs

  2. Damage Level Prediction of Reinforced Concrete Building Based on Earthquake Time History Using Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suryanita Reni

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The strong motion earthquake could cause the building damage in case of the building not considered in the earthquake design of the building. The study aims to predict the damage-level of building due to earthquake using Artificial Neural Networks method. The building model is a reinforced concrete building with ten floors and height between floors is 3.6 m. The model building received a load of the earthquake based on nine earthquake time history records. Each time history scaled to 0,5g, 0,75g, and 1,0g. The Artificial Neural Networks are designed in 4 architectural models using the MATLAB program. Model 1 used the displacement, velocity, and acceleration as input and Model 2 used the displacement only as the input. Model 3 used the velocity as input, and Model 4 used the acceleration just as input. The output of the Neural Networks is the damage level of the building with the category of Safe (1, Immediate Occupancy (2, Life Safety (3 or in a condition of Collapse Prevention (4. According to the results, Neural Network models have the prediction rate of the damage level between 85%-95%. Therefore, one of the solutions for analyzing the structural responses and the damage level promptly and efficiently when the earthquake occurred is by using Artificial Neural Network

  3. RADIOLYTIC HYDROGEN GENERATION INSAVANNAH RIVER SITE (SRS) HIGH LEVEL WASTETANKS COMPARISON OF SRS AND HANFORDMODELING PREDICTIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crawford, C; Ned Bibler, N

    2009-04-15

    In the high level waste tanks at the Savannah River Site (SRS), hydrogen is produced continuously by interaction of the radiation in the tank with water in the waste. Consequently, the vapor spaces of the tanks are purged to prevent the accumulation of H{sub 2} and possible formation of a flammable mixture in a tank. Personnel at SRS have developed an empirical model to predict the rate of H{sub 2} formation in a tank. The basis of this model is the prediction of the G value for H{sub 2} production. This G value is the number of H{sub 2} molecules produced per 100 eV of radiolytic energy absorbed by the waste. Based on experimental studies it was found that the G value for H{sub 2} production from beta radiation and from gamma radiation were essentially equal. The G value for H{sub 2} production from alpha radiation was somewhat higher. Thus, the model has two equations, one for beta/gamma radiation and one for alpha radiation. Experimental studies have also indicated that both G values are decreased by the presence of nitrate and nitrite ions in the waste. These are the main scavengers for the precursors of H{sub 2} in the waste; thus the equations that were developed predict G values for hydrogen production as a function of the concentrations of these two ions in waste. Knowing the beta/gamma and alpha heat loads in the waste allows one to predict the total generation rate for hydrogen in a tank. With this prediction a ventilation rate can be established for each tank to ensure that a flammable mixture is not formed in the vapor space in a tank. Recently personnel at Hanford have developed a slightly different model for predicting hydrogen G values. Their model includes the same precursor for H{sub 2} as the SRS model but also includes an additional precursor not in the SRS model. Including the second precursor for H{sub 2} leads to different empirical equations for predicting the G values for H{sub 2} as a function of the nitrate and nitrite concentrations in

  4. Implicit learning of predictable sound sequences modulates human brain responses at different levels of the auditory hierarchy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Françoise eLecaignard

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Deviant stimuli, violating regularities in a sensory environment, elicit the Mismatch Negativity (MMN, largely described in the Event-Related Potential literature. While it is widely accepted that the MMN reflects more than basic change detection, a comprehensive description of mental processes modulating this response is still lacking. Within the framework of predictive coding, deviance processing is part of an inference process where prediction errors (the mismatch between incoming sensations and predictions established through experience are minimized. In this view, the MMN is a measure of prediction error, which yields specific expectations regarding its modulations by various experimental factors. In particular, it predicts that the MMN should decrease as the occurrence of a deviance becomes more predictable. We conducted a passive oddball EEG study and manipulated the predictability of sound sequences by means of different temporal structures. Importantly, our design allows comparing mismatch responses elicited by predictable and unpredictable violations of a simple repetition rule and therefore departs from previous studies that investigate violations of different time-scale regularities. We observed a decrease of the MMN with predictability and interestingly, a similar effect at earlier latencies, within 70 ms after deviance onset. Following these pre-attentive responses, a reduced P3a was measured in the case of predictable deviants. We conclude that early and late deviance responses reflect prediction errors, triggering belief updating within the auditory hierarchy. Beside, in this passive study, such perceptual inference appears to be modulated by higher-level implicit learning of sequence statistical structures. Our findings argue for a hierarchical model of auditory processing where predictive coding enables implicit extraction of environmental regularities.

  5. Radionuclide migration in groundwater at a low-level waste disposal site: a comparison of predictive performance modeling versus field observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robertson, D.E.; Myers, D.A.; Bergeron, M.P.; Champ, D.R.; Killey, R.W.D.; Moltyaner, G.L.; Young, J.L.

    1985-08-01

    This paper describes a project which is structured to test the concept of modeling a shallow land low-level waste burial site. The project involves a comparison of the actual observed radionuclide migration in groundwaters at a 30-year-old well-monitored field site with the results of predictive transport modeling. The comparison is being conducted as a cooperative program with the Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. (AECL) at the low-level waste management area at the Chalk River Nuclear Laboratories, Ontario, Canada. A joint PNL-AECL field inviestigation was conducted in 1983 and 1984 to complement the existing extensive data base on actual radionuclide migration. Predictive transport modeling is currently being conducted for this site; first, as if it were a new location being considered for a low-level waste shallow-land burial site and only minimal information about the site were available, and second, utilizing the extensive data base available for the site. The modeling results will then be compared with the empirical observations to provide insight into the level of effort needed to reasonably predict the spacial and temporal movement of radionuclides in the groundwater enviroment. 8 refs., 5 figs.,

  6. Do Basic Skills Predict Youth Unemployment (16- to 24-Year-Olds) Also when Controlled for Accomplished Upper-Secondary School? A Cross-Country Comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundetrae, Kjersti; Gabrielsen, Egil; Mykletun, Reidar

    2010-01-01

    Basic skills and educational level are closely related, and both might affect employment. Data from the Adult Literacy and Life Skills Survey were used to examine whether basic skills in terms of literacy and numeracy predicted youth unemployment (16-24 years) while controlling for educational level. Stepwise logistic regression showed that in…

  7. Can preoperative and postoperative CA19-9 levels predict survival and early recurrence in patients with resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jun-Ke; Hu, Hai-Jie; Shrestha, Anuj; Ma, Wen-Jie; Yang, Qin; Liu, Fei; Cheng, Nan-Sheng; Li, Fu-Yu

    2017-07-11

    To investigate the predictive values of preoperative and postoperative serum CA19-9 levels on survival and other prognostic factors including early recurrence in patients with resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma. In univariate analysis, increased preoperative and postoperative CA19-9 levels in the light of different cut-off points (37, 100, 150, 200, 400, 1000 U/ml) were significantly associated with poor survival outcomes, of which the cut-off point of 150 U/ml showed the strongest predictive value (both P 150 U/ml was significantly associated with lymph node metastasis (OR = 3.471, 95% CI 1.216-9.905; P = 0.020) and early recurrence (OR = 8.280, 95% CI 2.391-28.674; P = 0.001). Meanwhile, postoperative CA19-9 level > 150 U/ml was also correlated with early recurrence (OR = 4.006, 95% CI 1.107-14.459; P = 0.034). Ninety-eight patients who had undergone curative surgery for hilar cholangiocarcinoma between 1995 and 2014 in our institution were selected for the study. The correlations of preoperative and postoperative serum CA19-9 levels on the basis of different cut-off points with survival and various tumor factors were retrospectively analyzed with univariate and multivariate methods. In patients with resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma, serum CA19-9 predict survival and early recurrence. Patients with increased preoperative and postoperative CA19-9 levels have poor survival outcomes and higher tendency of early recurrence.

  8. Prediction of high level vibration test results by use of available inelastic analysis techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hofmayer, C.H.; Park, Y.J.; Costello, J.F.

    1991-01-01

    As part of a cooperative study between the United States and Japan, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of International Trade and Industry of Japan agreed to perform a test program that would subject a large scale piping model to significant plastic strains under excitation conditions much greater than the design condition for nuclear power plants. The objective was to compare the results of the tests with state-of-the-art analyses. Comparisons were done at different excitation levels from elastic to elastic-plastic to levels where cracking was induced in the test model. The program was called the high Level Vibration Test (HLVT). The HLVT was performed on the seismic table at the Tadotsu Engineering Laboratory of Nuclear Power Engineering Test Center in Japan. The test model was constructed by modifying the 1/2.5 scale model of one loop of a PWR primary coolant system which was previously tested by NUPEC as part of their seismic proving test program. A comparison of various analysis techniques with test results shows a higher prediction error in the detailed strain values than in the overall response values. This prediction error is magnified as the plasticity in the test model increases. There is no significant difference in the peak responses between the simplified and the detailed analyses. A comparison between various detailed finite element model runs indicates that the material properties and plasticity modeling have a significant impact on the plastic strain responses under dynamic loading reversals. 5 refs., 12 figs

  9. Multilevel model to estimate county-level untreated dental caries among US children aged 6-9years using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Mei; Zhang, Xingyou; Holt, James B; Robison, Valerie; Li, Chien-Hsun; Griffin, Susan O

    2018-06-01

    Because conducting population-based oral health screening is resource intensive, oral health data at small-area levels (e.g., county-level) are not commonly available. We applied the multilevel logistic regression and poststratification method to estimate county-level prevalence of untreated dental caries among children aged 6-9years in the United States using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005-2010 linked with various area-level data at census tract, county and state levels. We validated model-based national estimates against direct estimates from NHANES. We also compared model-based estimates with direct estimates from select State Oral Health Surveys (SOHS) at state and county levels. The model with individual-level covariates only and the model with individual-, census tract- and county-level covariates explained 7.2% and 96.3% respectively of overall county-level variation in untreated caries. Model-based county-level prevalence estimates ranged from 4.9% to 65.2% with median of 22.1%. The model-based national estimate (19.9%) matched the NHANES direct estimate (19.8%). We found significantly positive correlations between model-based estimates for 8-year-olds and direct estimates from the third-grade State Oral Health Surveys (SOHS) at state level for 34 states (Pearson coefficient: 0.54, P=0.001) and SOHS estimates at county level for 53 New York counties (Pearson coefficient: 0.38, P=0.006). This methodology could be a useful tool to characterize county-level disparities in untreated dental caries among children aged 6-9years and complement oral health surveillance to inform public health programs especially when local-level data are not available although the lack of external validation due to data unavailability should be acknowledged. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  10. Prediction of geological and mechanical processes while disposing of high-level waste (HLW) into the earth crust

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kedrovsky, O.L.; Morozov, V.N.

    1992-01-01

    Prediction of geological and mechanical processes while disposing of high-level waste of atomic industry into the earth crust is the fundamental base for ecological risk assessment (possible consequences) while developing repository designs. The subject of this paper is the analytical estimate of possibilities of rock fracturing mechanisms to predict isolation properties loss by massif beginning from crystal lattice of minerals up to large fracture disturbances under conditions of long-term influence of pressure, temperature, and radiation. To solve the problem possibilities of kinetic

  11. Serum immunoglobulin levels predict fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McPherson, Stuart; Henderson, Elsbeth; Burt, Alastair D; Day, Christopher P; Anstee, Quentin M

    2014-05-01

    A third of the population are estimated to have NAFLD of varying severity. Serum immunoglobulins are frequently elevated in patients with chronic liver disease, but little is known about serum immunoglobulin levels in patients with NAFLD. Aim of this study was to evaluate serum immunoglobulin levels (IgA, IgG, and IgM) in a large cohort of patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD and determine if immunoglobulin levels are associated with clinical or histological features. Patients seen in a tertiary fatty liver clinic between 1999 and 2009 were included. Liver biopsies were assessed using the Kleiner score. Immunoglobulin levels and other blood tests were taken at time of biopsy. 285 patients (110 simple steatosis and 175 NASH) had serum immunoglobulins measured within 6months of liver biopsy. 130 (46%) patients had elevated (>1× upper limit of normal) serum IgA levels, 28 (10%) patients had elevated IgG and 22 (8%) raised IgM. Serum IgA levels were elevated more frequently in patients with NASH compared with subjects with simple steatosis (55% vs. 31%, pliver fibrosis (Kleiner stage 3-4). There was a significant positive association between serum IgA levels and the stage of fibrosis (pfibrosis following multivariate analysis. A model constructed from these independent predictors accurately predicted advanced fibrosis (AUROC 0.87). The serum IgA level was frequently elevated in patients with NAFLD and was an independent predictor of advanced fibrosis. Copyright © 2014 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Plasma Levels of Soluble HLA-E and HLA-F at Diagnosis May Predict Overall Survival of Neuroblastoma Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio Morandi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to identify the plasma/serum biomarkers that are able to predict overall survival (OS of neuroblastoma (NB patients. Concentration of soluble (s biomarkers was evaluated in plasma (sHLA-E, sHLA-F, chromogranin, and B7H3 or serum (calprotectin samples from NB patients or healthy children. The levels of biomarkers that were significantly higher in NB patients were then analyzed considering localized or metastatic subsets. Finally, biomarkers that were significantly different in these two subsets were correlated with patient’s outcome. With the exception of B7H3, levels of all molecules were significantly higher in NB patients than those in controls. However, only chromogranin, sHLA-E, and sHLA-F levels were different between patients with metastatic and localized tumors. sHLA-E and -F levels correlated with each other but not chromogranin. Chromogranin levels correlated with different event-free survival (EFS, whereas sHLA-E and -F levels also correlated with different OS. Association with OS was also detected considering only patients with metastatic disease. In conclusion, low levels of sHLA-E and -F significantly associated with worse EFS/OS in the whole cohort of NB patients and in patients with metastatic NB. Thus, these molecules deserve to be tested in prospective studies to evaluate their predictive power for high-risk NB patients.

  13. Corrosion models for predictions of performance of high-level radioactive-waste containers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farmer, J.C.; McCright, R.D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Gdowski, G.E. [KMI Energy Services, Livermore, CA (United States)

    1991-11-01

    The present plan for disposal of high-level radioactive waste in the US is to seal it in containers before emplacement in a geologic repository. A proposed site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, is being evaluated for its suitability as a geologic repository. The containers will probably be made of either an austenitic or a copper-based alloy. Models of alloy degradation are being used to predict the long-term performance of the containers under repository conditions. The models are of uniform oxidation and corrosion, localized corrosion, and stress corrosion cracking, and are applicable to worst-case scenarios of container degradation. This paper reviews several of the models.

  14. Early prediction of treatment response by serum CRP levels in patients with advanced esophageal cancer who underwent definitive chemoradiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoneda, Masayuki; Fujiwara, Hitoshi; Okamura, Shinichi

    2010-01-01

    Serum C reactive protein (CRP) has been shown to be associated with the progression of esophageal cancer. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between treatment response and serum CRP levels in time course during definitive chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in terms of early prediction of CRT response by serum CRP. The subjects of this study were 36 patients with cT3/cT4 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who underwent definitive CRT in our hospital. Serum CRP levels during definitive CRT (pretreatment, 1W, 2W and 3W after CRT initiation) were compared between CR and non-CR group. In addition, partition model was constructed to discriminate CR with non-CR and the prediction accuracy was evaluated. The patients were consisted of 28 males and 8 females. At pretreatment diagnosis, tumors were categorized as T3 (n=21) and T4 (n=15). Thirty four patients received FP-based chemotherapy and 2 patients received docetaxel-based chemotherapy. Treatment responses were categorized as CR (n=8), partial response (PR) (n=14), no change (NC) (n=2) and progressive disease (PD) (n=12). Serum CRP levels at the time of 2W after CRT initiation (CRT2W) in CR group were low compared to those in non-CR group (p=0.071). The partition model was constructed based on CRP levels at CRT2W. The prediction accuracies to discriminate CR from non-CR by CRP ≤0.1 were 50%, 82%, and 75% in sensitivity, specificity and accuracy, respectively. Serum CRP is a useful biomarker for an early prediction of CRT response. (author)

  15. Prediction of residential radon exposure of the whole Swiss population: comparison of model-based predictions with measurement-based predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauri, D D; Huss, A; Zimmermann, F; Kuehni, C E; Röösli, M

    2013-10-01

    Radon plays an important role for human exposure to natural sources of ionizing radiation. The aim of this article is to compare two approaches to estimate mean radon exposure in the Swiss population: model-based predictions at individual level and measurement-based predictions based on measurements aggregated at municipality level. A nationwide model was used to predict radon levels in each household and for each individual based on the corresponding tectonic unit, building age, building type, soil texture, degree of urbanization, and floor. Measurement-based predictions were carried out within a health impact assessment on residential radon and lung cancer. Mean measured radon levels were corrected for the average floor distribution and weighted with population size of each municipality. Model-based predictions yielded a mean radon exposure of the Swiss population of 84.1 Bq/m(3) . Measurement-based predictions yielded an average exposure of 78 Bq/m(3) . This study demonstrates that the model- and the measurement-based predictions provided similar results. The advantage of the measurement-based approach is its simplicity, which is sufficient for assessing exposure distribution in a population. The model-based approach allows predicting radon levels at specific sites, which is needed in an epidemiological study, and the results do not depend on how the measurement sites have been selected. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Prediction of response to medical therapy by serum soluble (pro)renin receptor levels in Graves’ disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimura, Shihori; Takano, Noriyoshi; Yamashita, Kaoru; Seki, Yasufumi; Bokuda, Kanako; Yatabe, Midori; Yatabe, Junichi; Watanabe, Daisuke; Ando, Takashi

    2018-01-01

    Antithyroid drugs are generally selected as the first-line treatment for Graves’ Disease (GD); however, the existence of patients showing resistance or severe side effects to these drugs is an important issue to be solved. The (pro)renin receptor [(P)RR] is a multi-functional protein that activates the tissue renin-angiotensin system and is an essential constituent of vacuolar H+-ATPase, necessary for the autophagy-lysosome pathway. (P)RR is cleaved to soluble (s)(P)RR, which reflects the status of (P)RR expression. In this retrospective study, we aimed to investigate whether serum s(P)RR concentration can be used as a biomarker to predict the outcome of antithyroid drug treatment in GD patients. Serum s(P)RR levels were measured in 54 untreated GD patients and 47 control participants. Effects of medical treatment with antithyroid drugs on these levels were investigated in GD patients. Serum s(P)RR levels were significantly higher in patients with Graves’ disease than in control subjects (Pantithyroid drug treatment, suggesting that serum s(P)RR concentration can be used as a useful biomarker to predict the outcome of antithyroid drug treatment in these patients. Patients with Graves’ disease with low body mass index showed higher levels of serum soluble (pro)renin receptor levels than those with high body mass index. In addition, in patients with Graves’ disease, serum triglyceride levels were negatively correlated with serum soluble (pro)renin receptor levels. All these data indicated an association between low nutrient condition due to hyperthyroidism and increased (pro)renin receptor expression in these patients, suggesting that (pro)renin receptor expression could be increased in the process of stimulating intracellular energy production via activating autophagy function to compensate energy loss. PMID:29621332

  17. Application of Machine Learning to Predict Dietary Lapses During Weight Loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein, Stephanie P; Zhang, Fengqing; Thomas, John G; Butryn, Meghan L; Herbert, James D; Forman, Evan M

    2018-05-01

    Individuals who adhere to dietary guidelines provided during weight loss interventions tend to be more successful with weight control. Any deviation from dietary guidelines can be referred to as a "lapse." There is a growing body of research showing that lapses are predictable using a variety of physiological, environmental, and psychological indicators. With recent technological advancements, it may be possible to assess these triggers and predict dietary lapses in real time. The current study sought to use machine learning techniques to predict lapses and evaluate the utility of combining both group- and individual-level data to enhance lapse prediction. The current study trained and tested a machine learning algorithm capable of predicting dietary lapses from a behavioral weight loss program among adults with overweight/obesity (n = 12). Participants were asked to follow a weight control diet for 6 weeks and complete ecological momentary assessment (EMA; repeated brief surveys delivered via smartphone) regarding dietary lapses and relevant triggers. WEKA decision trees were used to predict lapses with an accuracy of 0.72 for the group of participants. However, generalization of the group algorithm to each individual was poor, and as such, group- and individual-level data were combined to improve prediction. The findings suggest that 4 weeks of individual data collection is recommended to attain optimal model performance. The predictive algorithm could be utilized to provide in-the-moment interventions to prevent dietary lapses and therefore enhance weight losses. Furthermore, methods in the current study could be translated to other types of health behavior lapses.

  18. Population-Level Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes From Claims Data and Analysis of Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razavian, Narges; Blecker, Saul; Schmidt, Ann Marie; Smith-McLallen, Aaron; Nigam, Somesh; Sontag, David

    2015-12-01

    We present a new approach to population health, in which data-driven predictive models are learned for outcomes such as type 2 diabetes. Our approach enables risk assessment from readily available electronic claims data on large populations, without additional screening cost. Proposed model uncovers early and late-stage risk factors. Using administrative claims, pharmacy records, healthcare utilization, and laboratory results of 4.1 million individuals between 2005 and 2009, an initial set of 42,000 variables were derived that together describe the full health status and history of every individual. Machine learning was then used to methodically enhance predictive variable set and fit models predicting onset of type 2 diabetes in 2009-2011, 2010-2012, and 2011-2013. We compared the enhanced model with a parsimonious model consisting of known diabetes risk factors in a real-world environment, where missing values are common and prevalent. Furthermore, we analyzed novel and known risk factors emerging from the model at different age groups at different stages before the onset. Parsimonious model using 21 classic diabetes risk factors resulted in area under ROC curve (AUC) of 0.75 for diabetes prediction within a 2-year window following the baseline. The enhanced model increased the AUC to 0.80, with about 900 variables selected as predictive (p differences between AUCs). Similar improvements were observed for models predicting diabetes onset 1-3 years and 2-4 years after baseline. The enhanced model improved positive predictive value by at least 50% and identified novel surrogate risk factors for type 2 diabetes, such as chronic liver disease (odds ratio [OR] 3.71), high alanine aminotransferase (OR 2.26), esophageal reflux (OR 1.85), and history of acute bronchitis (OR 1.45). Liver risk factors emerge later in the process of diabetes development compared with obesity-related factors such as hypertension and high hemoglobin A1c. In conclusion, population-level risk

  19. Insights from Machine Learning for Evaluating Production Function Estimators on Manufacturing Survey Data

    OpenAIRE

    Arreola, José Luis Preciado; Johnson, Andrew L.

    2016-01-01

    Organizations like census bureaus rely on non-exhaustive surveys to estimate industry population-level production functions. In this paper we propose selecting an estimator based on a weighting of its in-sample and predictive performance on actual application datasets. We compare Cobb-Douglas functional assumptions to existing nonparametric shape constrained estimators and a newly proposed estimated presented in this paper. For simulated data, we find that our proposed estimator has the lowes...

  20. School- and Individual-level Predictors of Weight Status Misperception among Korean Adolescents: A National Online Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yongjoo; Kawachi, Ichiro

    2016-01-01

    Growing body of literature has reported that weight status estimation pattern, including accurate-, under-, and overestimation, was associated with weight related behaviors and weight change among adolescents and young adults. However, there have been a few studies investigating the potential role of school contexts in shaping adolescents' weight status estimation pattern among Korea adolescents. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between weight status misperception patterns and factors at individual-, family-, and school-level, simultaneously, and whether there was significant between schools variation in the distribution of each weight status misperception pattern, underestimation and overestimation respectively, among Korean adolescents aged 12-18 years. Data from the Eighth Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey (KYRBS), 2012, a nationally representative online survey of 72,228 students (boys = 37,229, girls = 34,999) from a total of 797 middle and high schools were used. Sex stratified multilevel random intercept multinomial logistic models where adolescents (level 1) were nested within schools (level 2) were performed. At the school level, attending a school with higher average BMI (kg/m2) was positively associated with weight status underestimation, and inversely associated with weight status overestimation among boys and girls. Single-sex schooling was positively associated with weight status underestimation among girls. At the family level, higher household income (high/middle versus low) was inversely associated with both weight status under- and overestimation among boys and girls. Higher maternal education (equal to or more than college graduate versus equal to or less than high school graduate) was positively associated with weight status overestimation among boys, and living with both parents (compared to not living with both parents) was inversely associated with weight status underestimation among girls. At the

  1. School- and Individual-level Predictors of Weight Status Misperception among Korean Adolescents: A National Online Survey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongjoo Kim

    Full Text Available Growing body of literature has reported that weight status estimation pattern, including accurate-, under-, and overestimation, was associated with weight related behaviors and weight change among adolescents and young adults. However, there have been a few studies investigating the potential role of school contexts in shaping adolescents' weight status estimation pattern among Korea adolescents.The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between weight status misperception patterns and factors at individual-, family-, and school-level, simultaneously, and whether there was significant between schools variation in the distribution of each weight status misperception pattern, underestimation and overestimation respectively, among Korean adolescents aged 12-18 years.Data from the Eighth Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey (KYRBS, 2012, a nationally representative online survey of 72,228 students (boys = 37,229, girls = 34,999 from a total of 797 middle and high schools were used. Sex stratified multilevel random intercept multinomial logistic models where adolescents (level 1 were nested within schools (level 2 were performed.At the school level, attending a school with higher average BMI (kg/m2 was positively associated with weight status underestimation, and inversely associated with weight status overestimation among boys and girls. Single-sex schooling was positively associated with weight status underestimation among girls. At the family level, higher household income (high/middle versus low was inversely associated with both weight status under- and overestimation among boys and girls. Higher maternal education (equal to or more than college graduate versus equal to or less than high school graduate was positively associated with weight status overestimation among boys, and living with both parents (compared to not living with both parents was inversely associated with weight status underestimation among girls. At

  2. Fiscal 1997 report on the verification survey of geothermal exploration technology. 2. Development of the reservoir variation survey method (development of the gravity survey method); 1997 nendo chinetsu tansa gijutsu nado kensho chosa. Choryuso hendo tansaho kaihatsu (juryoku tansaho kaihatsu) hokokusho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-03-01

    Among technology developments such as the reservoir evaluation at initial developmental stage and stabilization/maintenance of power after the start of operation, the fiscal 1997 result was described of the development of the gravity survey method. The paper conducted the installation of gravity measuring points outside the existing monitoring range, introduction of CG-3M gravimeter/GPS measuring system, drilling of ground water level monitoring well, etc. for the setup of a system for new gravity monitoring. Moreover, regular measurement of gravity was made for the first fiscal year, and at the same time the continued observation of ground water level, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, and temperature was started. It is necessary to study the effects on gravity variation such as gravity gradient and tidal correction. Conducted were collection/arrangement of the existing data and database construction for history matching/variation prediction in the Yanaizu Nishiyama area. The paper made surveys of the trends/literature. In the future, needed are the computation using density models of geothermal reservoirs and test use of EDCON`s downhole gravimeter. 44 refs., 30 figs., 17 tabs.

  3. Salivary Actinomyces naeslundii genospecies 2 and Lactobacillus casei levels predict pregnancy outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dasanayake, Ananda P; Li, Yihong; Wiener, Howard; Ruby, John D; Lee, Men-Jean

    2005-02-01

    Gravida's poor periodontal health is emerging as a modifiable independent risk factor for preterm delivery and low birth weight. To test the hypothesis that oral bacteria other than periodontal pathogens are also associated with pregnancy outcomes, specific oral bacterial levels measured during pregnancy were evaluated in relation to gestational age and birth weight while controlling for demographic, medical, and dental variables. The study population consisted of 297 predominantly African- American women who were pregnant for the first time. The salivary bacterial levels evaluated were Streptococcus mutans, Streptococcus sobrinus, Streptococcus sanguinus, Lactobacillus acidophilus, Lactobacillus casei, Actinomyces naeslundii genospecies (gsp) 1 and 2, total streptococci, and total cultivable organisms. For 1 unit increase in log(10) A. naeslundii gsp 2 levels, there was a 60 gm decrease in birth weight (beta = -59.7 g; SE = 29.1; P = 0.04), and a 0.17 week decrease in gestational age (beta = -0.17 wk; SE = 0.09; P = 0.05). In contrast, per 1 unit increase in log(10) L. casei levels, there was a 42 gm increase in birth weight (beta = 42.2 g; SE = 19.3; P = 0.03), and a 0.13 week increase in gestational age (beta = 0.13 week; SE = 0.06; P = 0.04). We conclude that other oral bacterial species can also be related to pregnancy outcomes in addition to previously reported periodontal pathogens. These organism levels may not only predict poor pregnancy outcomes, but also be used as modifiable risk factors in reducing prematurity and low birth weight.

  4. Predicting protein folding rate change upon point mutation using residue-level coevolutionary information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallik, Saurav; Das, Smita; Kundu, Sudip

    2016-01-01

    Change in folding kinetics of globular proteins upon point mutation is crucial to a wide spectrum of biological research, such as protein misfolding, toxicity, and aggregations. Here we seek to address whether residue-level coevolutionary information of globular proteins can be informative to folding rate changes upon point mutations. Generating residue-level coevolutionary networks of globular proteins, we analyze three parameters: relative coevolution order (rCEO), network density (ND), and characteristic path length (CPL). A point mutation is considered to be equivalent to a node deletion of this network and respective percentage changes in rCEO, ND, CPL are found linearly correlated (0.84, 0.73, and -0.61, respectively) with experimental folding rate changes. The three parameters predict the folding rate change upon a point mutation with 0.031, 0.045, and 0.059 standard errors, respectively. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Integrating Self-Determination and Job Demands-Resources Theory in Predicting Mental Health Provider Burnout.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dreison, Kimberly C; White, Dominique A; Bauer, Sarah M; Salyers, Michelle P; McGuire, Alan B

    2018-01-01

    Limited progress has been made in reducing burnout in mental health professionals. Accordingly, we identified factors that might protect against burnout and could be productive focal areas for future interventions. Guided by self-determination theory, we examined whether supervisor autonomy support, self-efficacy, and staff cohesion predict provider burnout. 358 staff from 13 agencies completed surveys. Higher levels of supervisor autonomy support, self-efficacy, and staff cohesion were predictive of lower burnout, even after accounting for job demands. Although administrators may be limited in their ability to reduce job demands, our findings suggest that increasing core job resources may be a viable alternative.

  6. Predicting levels of Latino depression: acculturation, acculturative stress, and coping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Lucas

    2010-04-01

    Past research has noted that aspects of living in the United States place Latinos at risk for experiencing psychological problems. However, the specific features of the adaptation process that contribute to depression remain unclear. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the ability of acculturation, acculturative stress, and coping to predict membership into low, medium, and high groups of depression among Latinos. Within a group of 148 Latino adults from the community, a multinomial logistic regression revealed that an Anglo orientation, English competency pressures, and active coping differentiated high from low depression and that a Latino orientation and, to some extent, the pressure to acculturate distinguished medium from low depression. These results highlight a pattern of characteristics that function as risk and protective factors in relation to level of symptom severity. The findings are discussed in terms of implications for Latino mental health, including considerations for intervention and prevention. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

  7. Comparative Analysis of Predictive Models of Pain Level from Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorders among Sewing Machine Operators in the Garments Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Ignacio P. Luga

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The Philippine garments industry has been experiencing a roller-coaster ride during the past decades, with much competition from its Asian neighbors, especially in the wake of the ASEAN 2015 Integration. One of the areas in the industry which can be looked into and possibly improved is the concern on Work-related Musculoskeletal Disorders (WMSDs. Literatures have shown that pain from WMSDs among sewing machine operators in this industry is very prevalent and its effects on the same operators have been very costly. After identifying the risk factors which may cause pain from WMSDs, this study generated three models which would predict the said pain level. These models were analyzed, compared and the best model was identified to make the most accurate prediction of pain level. This predictive model would be helpful for management of garment firms since first, the risk factors have been identified and hence can be used as bases for proposed improvements. Second, the prediction of each operator’s pain level would allow management to assess better its employees in terms of their sewing capacity vis-à-vis the company’s production plans.

  8. Using decision tree to predict serum ferritin level in women with anemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parisa Safaee

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Data mining is known as a process of discovering and analysing large amounts of data in order to find meaningful rules and trends. In healthcare, data mining offers numerous opportunities to study the unknown patterns in a data set. These patterns can be used to diagnosis, prognosis and treatment of patients by physicians. The main objective of this study was to predict the level of serum ferritin in women with anemia and to specify the basic predictive factors of iron deficiency anemia using data mining techniques. Methods: In this research 690 patients and 22 variables have been studied in women population with anemia. These data include 11 laboratories and 11 clinical variables of patients related to the patients who have referred to the laboratory of Imam Hossein and Shohada-E- Haft Tir hospitals from April 2013 to April 2014. Decision tree technique has been used to build the model. Results: The accuracy of the decision tree with all the variables is 75%. Different combinations of variables were examined in order to determine the best model to predict. Regarding the optimum obtained model of the decision tree, the RBC, MCH, MCHC, gastrointestinal cancer and gastrointestinal ulcer were identified as the most important predictive factors. The results indicate if the values of MCV, MCHC and MCH variables are normal and the value of RBC variable is lower than normal limitation, it is diagnosed that the patient is likely 90% iron deficiency anemia. Conclusion: Regarding the simplicity and the low cost of the complete blood count examination, the model of decision tree was taken into consideration to diagnose iron deficiency anemia in patients. Also the impact of new factors such as gastrointestinal hemorrhoids, gastrointestinal surgeries, different gastrointestinal diseases and gastrointestinal ulcers are considered in this paper while the previous studies have been limited only to assess laboratory variables. The rules of the

  9. Hemoglobin levels do not predict biochemical outcome for localized prostate cancer treated with neoadjuvant androgen-suppression therapy and external-beam radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pai, Howard Huaihan; Ludgate, Charles; Pickles, Tom; Paltiel, Chuck M.Sc.; Agranovich, Alex; Berthelet, Eric; Duncan, Graeme; Kim-Sing, Charmaine; Kwan, Winkle; Lim, Jan; Liu, Mitchell; Tyldesley, Scott

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate whether hemoglobin (Hb) levels affect outcome in men with localized prostate adenocarcinoma (LPA) treated with neoadjuvant androgen-suppression therapy (NAST) and external-beam radiotherapy (EBRT). Methods and Materials: A total of 563 men with LPA treated with NAST (median: 5.3 months) and EBRT who had Hb levels during treatment were retrospectively reviewed. Patient, tumor, and treatment variables, including the following Hb variables, were subjected to univariate and multivariable analyses to identify factors that predict biochemical control (bNED) and overall survival (OS): pre-EBRT Hb, Hb nadir during EBRT, and change in Hb from pre-EBRT to nadir during EBRT. Results: Median PSA follow-up was 4.25 years. Forty-nine percent of men were anemic during EBRT, with a median Hb of 13.4 g/dL, and 68% experienced a decline in Hb from pre-EBRT to during EBRT of median 0.6 g/dL. Five-year Nadir + 2 bNED and OS rates were similar for anemic and nonanemic patients during EBRT. High percent-positive biopsies, PSA and Gleason score, and use of AA monotherapy predicted worse bNED. High stage and age predicted worse OS. Hb variables were not predictive of bNED or OS. Conclusions: Anemia is a common side effect of NAST and is usually mild. Hb levels, however, do not predict biochemical control or survival

  10. Engineering surveying

    CERN Document Server

    Schofield, W

    2001-01-01

    The aim of Engineering Surveying has always been to impart and develop a clear understanding of the basic topics of the subject. The author has fully revised the book to make it the most up-to-date and relevant textbook available on the subject.The book also contains the latest information on trigonometric levelling, total stations and one-person measuring systems. A new chapter on satellites ensures a firm grasp of this vitally important topic.The text covers engineering surveying modules for civil engineering students on degree courses and forms a reference for the engineering surveying module in land surveying courses. It will also prove to be a valuable reference for practitioners.* Simple clear introduction to surveying for engineers* Explains key techniques and methods* Details reading systems and satellite position fixing

  11. Geotechnical survey procedures for a repository mine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walther, C.

    1993-01-01

    The approach to the survey involves the operational realisation of an information process beginning with the definition of the survey programme and ending with the presentation of the survey results in the form of planning and assessment documents. - The survey methods must conform with the mine regulations, provide reliable predictions and produce the maximum possible salient information. The recording of large and varied amounts of data, and the complex interpretation procedures that follow require effective data and information management to allow the presentation of the results in accordance with the planning specifications. (orig.) [de

  12. Testing and use of radar water level sensors by the U.S. Geological Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulford, Janice M.

    2016-01-01

    The United States Geological Survey uses water-level (or stage) measurements to compute streamflow at over 8000 stream gaging stations located throughout the United States (waterwatch.usgs.gov, 2016). Streamflow (or discharge) is computed at five minute to hourly intervals from a relationship between water level and discharge that is uniquely determined for each station. The discharges are posted hourly to WaterWatch (waterwatch. usgs.gov) and are used by water managers to issue flood warnings and manage water supply and by other users of water information to make decisions. The accuracy of the water-level measurement is vital to the accuracy of the computed discharge. Because of the importance of water-level measurements, USGS has an accuracy policy of 0.02 ft or 0.2 percent of reading (whichever is larger) (Sauer and Turnipseed, 2010). Older technologies, such as float and shaft-encoder systems, bubbler systems and submersible pressure sensors, provide the needed accuracy but often require extensive construction to install and are prone to malfunctioning and damage from floating debris and sediment. No stilling wells or orifice lines need to be constructed for radar installations. During the last decade testing by the USGS Hydrologic Instrumentation Facility(HIF) found that radar water-level sensors can provide the needed accuracy for water-level measurements and because the sensor can be easily attached to bridges, reduce the construction required for installation. Additionally, the non-contact sensing of water level minimizes or eliminates damage and fouling from floating debris and sediment. This article is a brief summary of the testing efforts by the USGS HIF and field experiences with models of radar water-level sensors in streamflow measurement applications. Any use of trade names in this article is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

  13. Hearing outcomes of vestibular schwannoma patients managed with 'wait and scan': predictive value of hearing level at diagnosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stangerup, S-E; Tos, M; Thomsen, J

    2010-01-01

    This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of both hearing level (at various frequencies) and speech discrimination for forecasting hearing outcome after a period of observation, in patients with vestibular schwannoma....

  14. Serum Lipid Levels in Relation to Consumption of Yogurt: The 2012 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Bong-Kyung; Kim, Nam-Eun; Park, Kyong-Min; Park, Kye-Yeung; Park, Hoon-Ki

    2017-01-01

    Background The purpose of this study was to evaluate serum lipid levels in Korean adults after consumption of different types of yogurt. Methods Study subjects were 3,038 individuals (≥19 years of age) who participated in the 2012 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Yogurt intake was assessed with a food frequency questionnaire by using the 24-hour recall method. We conducted complex samples general linear analysis with adjustment for covariates. Results The serum triglyceride levels in the group consuming viscous yogurt were lower than those in the group consuming non-viscous yogurt. Conclusion Consumption of viscous yogurt is associated with low serum triglyceride levels in Korean adults. PMID:29026484

  15. Age and total and free prostate-specific antigen levels for predicting prostate volume in patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coban, Soner; Doluoglu, Omer Gokhan; Keles, Ibrahim; Demirci, Hakan; Turkoglu, Ali Riza; Guzelsoy, Muhammet; Karalar, Mustafa; Demirbas, Murat

    2016-06-01

    To investigate the predictive values of free prostate-specific antigen (fPSA), total PSA (tPSA) and age on the prostate volume. The data of 2148 patients with lower urinary tract symptoms were analyzed retrospectively. The patients who had transrectal ultrasonography guided 10 core biopsies owing to the findings obtained on digital rectal examination and presence of high PSA levels (PSA = 2.5-10 ng/dl), and proven to have BPH histopathologically were included in the study. Age, tPSA, fPSA and the prostate volumes (PV) of the patients were noted. One thousand patients that fulfilled the inclusion criteria were included in the study. The PV of the patients were significantly correlated with age, tPSA and fPSA (p < 0.001 and r = 0.307, p < 0.001 and r = 0.382, p < 0.001 and r = 0.296, respectively). On linear regression model, fPSA was found as a stronger predictive for PV (AUC = 0.75, p < 0.001) when compared to age (AUC = 0.64, p < 0.001), and tPSA (AUC = 0.69, p = 0.013). Although tPSA is an important prognostic factor for predicting PV, the predictive value of fPSA is higher. PV can easily be predicted by using age, and serum tPSA and fPSA levels.

  16. High pre-transplant soluble CD30 levels are predictive of the grade of rejection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajakariar, Ravindra; Jivanji, Naina; Varagunam, Mira; Rafiq, Mohammad; Gupta, Arun; Sheaff, Michael; Sinnott, Paul; Yaqoob, M M

    2005-08-01

    In renal transplantation, serum soluble CD30 (sCD30) levels in graft recipients are associated with increased rejection and graft loss. We investigated whether pre-transplant sCD30 concentrations are predictive of the grade of rejection. Pre-transplant sera of 51 patients with tubulointerstitial rejection (TIR), 16 patients with vascular rejection (VR) and an age-matched control group of 41 patients with no rejection (NR) were analyzed for sCD30. The transplant biopsies were immunostained for C4d. The median sCD30 level was significantly elevated in the group with VR (248 Units (U)/mL, range: 92-802) when compared with TIR (103 U/mL, range: 36-309, psCD30 levels compared to NR. Based on C4d staining, a TH2 driven process, the median sCD30 levels were significantly raised in C4d+ patients compared with C4d- group (177 U/mL vs. 120 U/mL, psCD30 levels measured at time of transplantation correlate with the grade of rejection. High pre-transplant levels are associated with antibody-mediated rejection which carries a poorer prognosis. sCD30 could be another tool to assess immunological risk prior to transplantation and enable a patient centered approach to immunosuppression.

  17. Large Civil Tiltrotor (LCTR2) Interior Noise Predictions due to Turbulent Boundary Layer Excitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosveld, Ferdinand W.

    2013-01-01

    The Large Civil Tiltrotor (LCTR2) is a conceptual vehicle that has a design goal to transport 90 passengers over a distance of 1800 km at a speed of 556 km/hr. In this study noise predictions were made in the notional LCTR2 cabin due to Cockburn/Robertson and Efimtsov turbulent boundary layer (TBL) excitation models. A narrowband hybrid Finite Element (FE) analysis was performed for the low frequencies (6-141 Hz) and a Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) was conducted for the high frequency one-third octave bands (125- 8000 Hz). It is shown that the interior sound pressure level distribution in the low frequencies is governed by interactions between individual structural and acoustic modes. The spatially averaged predicted interior sound pressure levels for the low frequency hybrid FE and the high frequency SEA analyses, due to the Efimtsov turbulent boundary layer excitation, were within 1 dB in the common 125 Hz one-third octave band. The averaged interior noise levels for the LCTR2 cabin were predicted lower than the levels in a comparable Bombardier Q400 aircraft cabin during cruise flight due to the higher cruise altitude and lower Mach number of the LCTR2. LCTR2 cabin noise due to TBL excitation during cruise flight was found not unacceptable for crew or passengers when predictions were compared to an acoustic survey on a Q400 aircraft.

  18. Nested-scale discharge and groundwater level monitoring to improve predictions of flow route discharges and nitrate loads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velde, Y. van der; Rozemeijer, J.C.; Rooij, G.H.de; Geer, F.C. van; Torfs, P.J.J.F.; Louw, P.G.B. de

    2010-01-01

    Identifying effective measures to reduce nutrient loads of headwaters in lowland catchments requires a thorough understanding of flow routes of water and nutrients. In this paper we assess the value of nested-scale discharge and groundwater level measurements for predictions of catchment-scale

  19. Does bipedality predict the group-level manual laterality in mammals?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giljov, Andrey; Karenina, Karina; Malashichev, Yegor

    2012-01-01

    Factors determining patterns of laterality manifestation in mammals remain unclear. In primates, the upright posture favours the expression of manual laterality across species, but may have little influence within a species. Whether the bipedalism acts the same in non-primate mammals is unknown. Our recent findings in bipedal and quadrupedal marsupials suggested that differences in laterality pattern, as well as emergence of manual specialization in evolution might depend on species-specific body posture. Here, we evaluated the hypothesis that the postural characteristics are the key variable shaping the manual laterality expression across mammalian species. We studied forelimb preferences in a most bipedal marsupial, brush-tailed bettong, Bettongia penicillata in four different types of unimanual behavior. The significant left-forelimb preference at the group level was found in all behaviours studied. In unimanual feeding on non-living food, catching live prey and nest-material collecting, all or most subjects were lateralized, and among lateralized bettongs a significant majority displayed left-forelimb bias. Only in unimanual supporting of the body in the tripedal stance the distribution of lateralized and non-lateralized individuals did not differ from chance. Individual preferences were consistent across all types of behaviour. The direction or the strength of forelimb preferences were not affected by the animals' sex. Our findings support the hypothesis that the expression of manual laterality depends on the species-typical postural habit. The interspecies comparison illustrates that in marsupials the increase of bipedality corresponds with the increase of the degree of group-level forelimb preference in a species. Thus, bipedalism can predict pronounced manual laterality at both intra- and interspecific levels in mammals. We also conclude that quadrupedal position in biped species can slightly hinder the expression of manual laterality, but the evoked biped

  20. Gender Differences in Public and Private Drinking Contexts: A Multi-Level GENACIS Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason C. Bond

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available This multi-national study hypothesized that higher levels of country-level gender equality would predict smaller differences in the frequency of women’s compared to men’s drinking in public (like bars and restaurants settings and possibly private (home or party settings. GENACIS project survey data with drinking contexts included 22 countries in Europe (8; the Americas (7; Asia (3; Australasia (2, and Africa (2, analyzed using hierarchical linear models (individuals nested within country. Age, gender and marital status were individual predictors; country-level gender equality as well as equality in economic participation, education, and political participation, and reproductive autonomy and context of violence against women measures were country-level variables. In separate models, more reproductive autonomy, economic participation, and educational attainment and less violence against women predicted smaller differences in drinking in public settings. Once controlling for country-level economic status, only equality in economic participation predicted the size of the gender difference. Most country-level variables did not explain the gender difference in frequency of drinking in private settings. Where gender equality predicted this difference, the direction of the findings was opposite from the direction in public settings, with more equality predicting a larger gender difference, although this relationship was no longer significant after controlling for country-level economic status. Findings suggest that country-level gender equality may influence gender differences in drinking. However, the effects of gender equality on drinking may depend on the specific alcohol measure, in this case drinking context, as well as on the aspect of gender equality considered. Similar studies that use only global measures of gender equality may miss key relationships. We consider potential implications for alcohol related consequences, policy and public

  1. Healthcare professionals' attitudes, knowledge and self-efficacy levels regarding the use of self-hypnosis in childbirth: A prospective questionnaire survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAllister, Sophie; Coxon, Kirstie; Murrells, T; Sandall, J

    2017-04-01

    to examine healthcare professionals' attitudes, knowledge and levels of self-efficacy regarding the use of self-hypnosis in childbirth. a prospective survey. two large maternity units in London, England. healthcare professionals (n=129) involved in the care of childbearing women (anaesthetists, midwives and obstetricians). online questionnaire assessing healthcare professionals' experience, knowledge, attitudes and self-efficacy relating to self-hypnosis in childbirth. attitude, self-efficacy and knowledge. over half of the participants surveyed (56%) reported they had minimal or no knowledge of hypnosis. Higher levels of knowledge were associated with higher levels of self-efficacy (phypnosis than doctors, and more exposure was significantly associated with higher levels of self-efficacy (midwives phypnosis in their own or partners' births had significantly higher self-efficacy scores (phypnosis in childbirth, they need to be confident in their ability to facilitate this method. Previous research has established that self-efficacy is a strong indicator of performance. Professionals with more knowledge of self-hypnosis are also more confident in supporting women using this technique in childbirth. Multi-disciplinary staff training which aims to increase knowledge, and which includes exposure to hypnosis in labour, may be beneficial in assisting staff to support women choosing to use self-hypnosis in labour. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. External radiation survey and dose predictions for Rongelap, Utirik, Rongerik, Ailuk, and Wotje Atolls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greenhouse, N.A.; Miltenberger, R.P.

    1977-01-01

    External radiation measurements were made at several atolls in the northern Marshall Islands, which are known or suspected to have been the recipients of tropospheric fallout during the Pacific Testing Programs. Sufficient data were available to ascertain realistic dose predictions for the inhabitants of Rongelap and Utirik Atolls where the 30 year integral doses from external sources exclusive of background radiation were 0.65 and 0.06 rem respectively. These estimates are based on realistic life-style models based on observations of each atoll community. Ailuk and Wotje Atolls were found to be represenatives of regional background radiation levels

  3. Predicting the Extent of Inundation due to Sea-Level Rise: Al Hamra Development, Ras Al Khaimah, UAE. A Pilot Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arthur Robert M.

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available As new information is received, predictions of sea-level rise resulting from global warming continue to be revised upwards. Measurements indicate that the rise in sea-level is continuing at, or close to, the worst case forecasts (Kellet et al. 2014. Coastal areas are coming under increasing risk of inundation and flooding as storms are predicted to increase in frequency and severity, adding to the risk of inundation due to higher sea levels. Stakeholders, government agencies, developers and land owners require accurate, up to date information to be able to protect coastal areas. Geographic Information Systems (GIS along with accurate remote sensing technologies such as LiDAR provides the best means for delivering this information. Using these technologies, this paper predicts the risk posed to a large multi-use development in the emirate of Ras Al Khaimah, UAE. This development, Al Hamra Village, is situated on the coast of the Arabian Gulf. Al Hamra’s physical relationship to the Gulf is in common with other developments in Ras Al Khaimah in its and for this reason has been used as a pilot project. The resulting GIS model shows that Al Hamra is indeed at risk from predicted flood events. How this information can be used as a planning tool for numerous strategies is discussed in this paper.

  4. Evidence of dose saving in routine CT practice using iterative reconstruction derived from a national diagnostic reference level survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, P; Hayton, A; Beveridge, T; Marks, P; Wallace, A

    2015-09-01

    To assess the influence and significance of the use of iterative reconstruction (IR) algorithms on patient dose in CT in Australia. We examined survey data submitted to the Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Agency (ARPANSA) National Diagnostic Reference Level Service (NDRLS) during 2013 and 2014. We compared median survey dose metrics with categorization by scan region and use of IR. The use of IR results in a reduction in volume CT dose index of between 17% and 44% and a reduction in dose-length product of between 14% and 34% depending on the specific scan region. The reduction was highly significant (p sum test) for all six scan regions included in the NDRLS. Overall, 69% (806/1167) of surveys included in the analysis used IR. The use of IR in CT is achieving dose savings of 20-30% in routine practice in Australia. IR appears to be widely used by participants in the ARPANSA NDRLS with approximately 70% of surveys submitted employing this technique. This study examines the impact of the use of IR on patient dose in CT on a national scale.

  5. Development of new geoinformation methods for modelling and prediction of sea level change over different timescales - overview of the project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niedzielski, T.; Włosińska, M.; Miziński, B.; Hewelt, M.; Migoń, P.; Kosek, W.; Priede, I. G.

    2012-04-01

    The poster aims to provide a broad scientific audience with a general overview of a project on sea level change modelling and prediction that has just commenced at the University of Wrocław, Poland. The initiative that the project fits, called the Homing Plus programme, is organised by the Foundation for Polish Science and financially supported by the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund and the Innovative Economy Programme. There are two key research objectives of the project that complement each other. First, emphasis is put on modern satellite altimetric gridded time series from the Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data (AVISO) repository. Daily sea level anomaly maps, access to which in near-real time is courtesy of AVISO, are being steadily downloaded every day to our local server in Wroclaw, Poland. These data will be processed within a general framework of modelling and prediction of sea level change in short, medium and long term. Secondly, sea level change over geological time is scrutinised in order to cover very long time scales that go far beyond a history of altimetric and tide-gauge measurements. The aforementioned approaches comprise a few tasks that aim to solve the following detailed problems. Within the first one, our objective is to seek spatio-temporal dependencies in the gridded sea level anomaly time series. Subsequently, predictions that make use of such cross-correlations shall be derived, and near-real time service for automatic update with validation will be implemented. Concurrently, (i.e. apart from spatio-temporal dependencies and their use in the process of forecasting variable sea level topography), threshold models shall be utilised for predicting the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal that is normally present in sea level anomaly time series of the equatorial Pacific. Within the second approach, however, the entirely different methods are proposed. Links between

  6. Epidemiological surveys on the effects of low-level radiation dose: a comparative assessment. V. E

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rose, K.S.B.

    1990-01-01

    These tables present data on the effects of low-level radiation dose for the following effects:- pre-conception irradiation and Down's Syndrome, pre-conception irradiation and reproductive damage, surveys of effect in relation to the source of radiation, distribution by maternal preconception exposure of the 7 most common major congenital abnormalities in the Japanese, pre-conception irradiation and childhood malignancies, parental gonadal dose at Hiroshima and Nagasaki in relation to leukemia, sex chromosome aneuploids in children of A-bomb survivors, untoward pregnancy outcomes by parental gonad dose, pre-conception irradiation and chromosomal abnormalities, and intra-uterine irradiation and intelligence. (author).

  7. Epidemiological surveys on the effects of low-level radiation dose: a comparative assessment. V. E

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rose, K.S.B.

    1990-01-01

    These tables present data on the effects of low-level radiation dose for the following effects:- pre-conception irradiation and Down's Syndrome, pre-conception irradiation and reproductive damage, surveys of effect in relation to the source of radiation, distribution by maternal preconception exposure of the 7 most common major congenital abnormalities in the Japanese, pre-conception irradiation and childhood malignancies, parental gonadal dose at Hiroshima and Nagasaki in relation to leukemia, sex chromosome aneuploids in children of A-bomb survivors, untoward pregnancy outcomes by parental gonad dose, pre-conception irradiation and chromosomal abnormalities, and intra-uterine irradiation and intelligence. (author)

  8. Prostate cancer prediction using the random forest algorithm that takes into account transrectal ultrasound findings, age, and serum levels of prostate-specific antigen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-Hong Xiao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to evaluate the ability of the random forest algorithm that combines data on transrectal ultrasound findings, age, and serum levels of prostate-specific antigen to predict prostate carcinoma. Clinico-demographic data were analyzed for 941 patients with prostate diseases treated at our hospital, including age, serum prostate-specific antigen levels, transrectal ultrasound findings, and pathology diagnosis based on ultrasound-guided needle biopsy of the prostate. These data were compared between patients with and without prostate cancer using the Chi-square test, and then entered into the random forest model to predict diagnosis. Patients with and without prostate cancer differed significantly in age and serum prostate-specific antigen levels (P < 0.001, as well as in all transrectal ultrasound characteristics (P < 0.05 except uneven echo (P = 0.609. The random forest model based on age, prostate-specific antigen and ultrasound predicted prostate cancer with an accuracy of 83.10%, sensitivity of 65.64%, and specificity of 93.83%. Positive predictive value was 86.72%, and negative predictive value was 81.64%. By integrating age, prostate-specific antigen levels and transrectal ultrasound findings, the random forest algorithm shows better diagnostic performance for prostate cancer than either diagnostic indicator on its own. This algorithm may help improve diagnosis of the disease by identifying patients at high risk for biopsy.

  9. Precision surveying system for PEP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunn, J.; Lauritzen, T.; Sah, R.; Pellisier, P.F.

    1977-01-01

    A semi-automatic precision surveying system is being developed for PEP. Reference elevations for vertical alignment will be provided by a liquid level. The short range surveying will be accomplished using a Laser Surveying System featuring automatic data acquisition and analysis

  10. Using a stand-level model to predict light absorption in stands with vertically and horizontally heterogeneous canopies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David I Forrester

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Background Forest ecosystem functioning is strongly influenced by the absorption of photosynthetically active radiation (APAR, and therefore, accurate predictions of APAR are critical for many process-based forest growth models. The Lambert-Beer law can be applied to estimate APAR for simple homogeneous canopies composed of one layer, one species, and no canopy gaps. However, the vertical and horizontal structure of forest canopies is rarely homogeneous. Detailed tree-level models can account for this heterogeneity but these often have high input and computational demands and work on finer temporal and spatial resolutions than required by stand-level growth models. The aim of this study was to test a stand-level light absorption model that can estimate APAR by individual species in mixed-species and multi-layered stands with any degree of canopy openness including open-grown trees to closed canopies. Methods The stand-level model was compared with a detailed tree-level model that has already been tested in mixed-species stands using empirical data. Both models were parameterised for five different forests, including a wide range of species compositions, species proportions, stand densities, crown architectures and canopy structures. Results The stand-level model performed well in all stands except in the stand where extinction coefficients were unusually variable and it appears unlikely that APAR could be predicted in such stands using (tree- or stand-level models that do not allow individuals of a given species to have different extinction coefficients, leaf-area density or analogous parameters. Conclusion This model is parameterised with species-specific information about extinction coefficients and mean crown length, diameter, height and leaf area. It could be used to examine light dynamics in complex canopies and in stand-level growth models.

  11. 76 FR 19123 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-06

    ... Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) AGENCY: U.S. Geological Survey, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to Public Law 96-472, the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council... proposed earthquake predictions, on the completeness and scientific validity of the available data related...

  12. Independent Verification Survey Of The SPRU Lower Level Hillside Area At The Knolls Atomic Power Laboratory Niskayuna, New York

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harpenau, Evan M.; Weaver, Phyllis C.

    2012-01-01

    During August 10, 2011 through August 19, 2011, and October 23, 2011 through November 4, 2011, ORAU/ORISE conducted verification survey activities at the Separations Process Research Unit (SPRU) site that included in-process inspections, surface scans, and soil sampling of the Lower Level Hillside Area. According to the Type-B Investigation Report, Sr-90 was the primary contributor to the majority of the activity (60 times greater than the Cs-137 activity). The evaluation of the scan data and sample results obtained during verification activities determined that the primary radionuclide of concern, Sr-90, was well below the agreed upon soil cleanup objective (SCO) of 30 pCi/g for the site. However, the concentration of Cs-137 in the four judgmental samples collected in final status survey (FSS) Units A and B was greater than the SCO. Both ORAU and aRc surveys identified higher Cs-137 concentrations in FSS Units A and B; the greatest concentrations were indentified in FSS Unit A

  13. Rapid Survey For Measuring The Level And Causes Of Maternal Mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kumar Rajesh

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Research question: What is the extent of problem of maternal mortality in a given population? Objective: 1. To evolve a rapid survey methodology aimed at measuring maternal mortality ratio. 2. To find out the probable medical causes of maternal deaths and behavioural factors associated with them. Study Design: cross- sectional. Setting: Urban and rural areas of district Mohindergarh, Haryana. Participants: Members of families in which a maternal death had taken place in last 12 months. Sample size: All 275 deaths among women 15-44 years occurring in the district from 1st April 95 to 31st March 96. Study variables: Age, gravida, parity, literacy, caste, land holding, health care facilities, distance from health centers, mode of conveyance. Statistical Analysis: Rates and ratios. Results: Maternal mortality ratio was estimated to be 275 per 100,000 live births (298 rural and 82 urban. Major causes of death were â€" sepsis(30%, haemorrhage (21%, abortion(5%, eclampsia (3% and obstructed labour(3%. Twenty-nine causes of deaths occurred at home and 26% on way to hospital. Out of 59(93.7% cases who could avail medical consultation, 61% arranged it within five hours after onset of symptoms, and 78% availed two, 21% three, and 11% four consulations. The survey was completed in three months at a cost of Rs. 54,000. Recommendations: Such rapid surveys should be carried out periodically (every 4-5 years to monitor the progress in maternal health. Staff of heath deptt. Should be involved in carrying out these surveys. This will not only help in reducing cost of the survey but information about specific problems of maternal mortality in the area can be utilized by health staff for taking appropriate action to improve maternal health care.

  14. Survey: Knowledge level of the population about radon in Switzerland; Enquete: niveau de connaissance de la population au sujet du radon en Suisse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gruson, M.; Murith, C. [Office Federal de la Sante Publique, Section Risques Radiologiques, Berne (Switzerland); Rumo, S. [CBC Marketing Research, Berne (Switzerland)

    2010-01-15

    In 1995, a survey was conducted in order to investigate levels of knowledge about radon among the Swiss population. In 2008, a second survey, using a similar methodology, was carried out by the F.O.P.H.. The new study showed that about 40% of the Swiss population has heard of radon, which represents an increase of 8% over the 1995 survey. Most of the respondents knew that radon causes lung cancer, but believed that the gas also produces other health effects (in particular, migraine and skin conditions). In addition, older people, those with a high level of education and property owners tended to be more familiar with the radon issue than the public at large. The inhabitants of high-risk regions achieved markedly better results, which demonstrate that information campaigns in these regions have been successful. At the same time, additional communication efforts are required in low- and medium-risk municipalities, where the majority of the population lives. (authors)

  15. External validation of a clinical prediction rule to predict full recovery and ongoing moderate/severe disability following acute whiplash injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritchie, Carrie; Hendrikz, Joan; Jull, Gwendolen; Elliott, James; Sterling, Michele

    2015-04-01

    Retrospective secondary analysis of data. To investigate the external validity of the whiplash clinical prediction rule (CPR). We recently derived a whiplash CPR to consolidate previously established prognostic factors for poor recovery from a whiplash injury and predicted 2 recovery pathways. Prognostic factors for full recovery were being less than 35 years of age and having an initial Neck Disability Index (NDI) score of 32% or less. Prognostic factors for ongoing moderate/severe pain and disability were being 35 years of age or older, having an initial NDI score of 40% or more, and the presence of hyperarousal symptoms. Validation is required to confirm the reproducibility and accuracy of this CPR. Clinician feedback on the usefulness of the CPR is also important to gauge acceptability. A secondary analysis of data from 101 individuals with acute whiplash-associated disorder who had previously participated in either a randomized controlled clinical trial or prospective cohort study was performed using accuracy statistics. Full recovery was defined as NDI score at 6 months of 10% or less, and ongoing moderate/severe pain and disability were defined as an NDI score at 6 months of 30% or greater. In addition, a small sample of physical therapists completed an anonymous survey on the clinical acceptability and usability of the tool. Results The positive predictive value of ongoing moderate/severe pain and disability was 90.9% in the validation cohort, and the positive predictive value of full recovery was 80.0%. Surveyed physical therapists reported that the whiplash CPR was simple, understandable, would be easy to use, and was an acceptable prognostic tool. External validation of the whiplash CPR confirmed the reproducibility and accuracy of this dual-pathway tool for individuals with acute whiplash-associated disorder. Further research is needed to assess prospective validation, the impact of inclusion on practice, and to examine the efficacy of linking treatment

  16. Personal and Environmental Characteristics Predicting Burnout Among Certified Athletic Trainers at National Collegiate Athletic Association Institutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kania, Michelle L; Meyer, Barbara B; Ebersole, Kyle T

    2009-01-01

    Context: Recent research in the health care professions has shown that specific personal and environmental characteristics can predict burnout, which is a negative coping strategy related to stressful situations. Burnout has been shown to result in physiologic (eg, headaches, difficulty sleeping, poor appetite), psychological (eg, increased negative self-talk, depression, difficulty in interpersonal relationships), and behavioral (eg, diminished care, increased absenteeism, attrition) symptoms. Objective: To examine the relationship between selected personal and environmental characteristics and burnout among certified athletic trainers (ATs). Design: Cross-sectional survey. Setting: A demographic survey that was designed for this study and the Maslach Burnout Inventory–Human Services Survey. Patients or Other Participants: A total of 206 ATs employed at National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) institutions as clinical ATs volunteered. Main Outcome Measure(s): We assessed personal and environmental characteristics of ATs with the demographic survey and measured burnout using the Maslach Burnout Inventory–Human Services Survey. Multiple regression analyses were performed to examine relationships between specific personal and environmental characteristics and each of the 3 subscales of burnout (emotional exhaustion, depersonalization, personal accomplishment). Results: Most ATs we surveyed experienced low to average levels of burnout. Personal characteristics predicted 45.5% of the variance in emotional exhaustion (P teachers. The results also support the Cognitive-Affective Model of Athletic Burnout proposed by Smith. Finally, these results indicate new areas of concentration for burnout research and professional practice. PMID:19180220

  17. Physical Activity Levels Among Adults in Uganda: Findings From a Countrywide Cross-Sectional Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guwatudde, David; Kirunda, Barbara E; Wesonga, Ronald; Mutungi, Gerald; Kajjura, Richard; Kasule, Hafisa; Muwonge, James; Bahendeka, Silver K

    2016-09-01

    Being physically active is associated with lower risk of many noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). We analyzed physical activity (PA) data collected as part of Uganda's countrywide NCD risk factor survey conducted in 2014, to describe PA levels in Uganda. PA data were collected on the domains of work, travel and leisure. We calculated the percentage of participants meeting the World Health Organization (WHO) PA recommendations, and the types of intense-specific duration of PA. Prevalence ratios (PR) were used to identify factors associated with meeting WHO PA recommendations. Of the 3987 participants, 3758 (94.3%) met the WHO PA recommendations. Work-related PA of moderate intensity, and travel-related PA contributed most to participants' overall weekly duration of PA, each contributing 49.6% and 25.2% respectively. The median weekly duration of all moderate-intensity PA was 1470 minutes (interquartile range [IQR] = 540 to 2460). Weekly duration of all vigorous-intensity PA was low with a median of 0 minutes (IQR = 0 to 1080). The median daily sedentary time was 120 minutes (IQR = 60 to 240). Factors significantly associated with meeting WHO PA recommendations were body mass index and level of education. PA levels in Uganda are high, mostly achieved through travel and work-related activities of moderate intensity.

  18. Iowa Intensive Archaeological Survey

    Data.gov (United States)

    Iowa State University GIS Support and Research Facility — This shape file contains intensive level archaeological survey areas for the state of Iowa. All intensive Phase I surveys that are submitted to the State Historic...

  19. Underwater Sound Propagation Modeling Methods for Predicting Marine Animal Exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamm, Craig A; McCammon, Diana F; Taillefer, Martin L

    2016-01-01

    The offshore exploration and production (E&P) industry requires comprehensive and accurate ocean acoustic models for determining the exposure of marine life to the high levels of sound used in seismic surveys and other E&P activities. This paper reviews the types of acoustic models most useful for predicting the propagation of undersea noise sources and describes current exposure models. The severe problems caused by model sensitivity to the uncertainty in the environment are highlighted to support the conclusion that it is vital that risk assessments include transmission loss estimates with statistical measures of confidence.

  20. A Survey of the Innovation Surveys

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hong, Shangqin; Oxley, Les; McCann, Philip

    Both theoretical and conceptual understanding of innovation has developed significantly since the early 1980s. More noticeable, however, are the major changes that have been experienced in empirically-oriented innovation research as a result of the introduction of firm level innovation surveys.

  1. The survey of the Omagari fault using electric survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuo, Koichi; Kishimoto, Munemaru; Negi, Tateyuki; Teshima, Minoru

    2005-08-01

    The present document is to report the results of geophysical survey by electric survey around a site proposed for the Horonobe Underground Research Program at Horonobe-cho, Hokkaido by the Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute. Electric survey using dipole-dipole array was carried out at 2,061 points using 101 electrodes over 1 km survey line in the area of Hokushin in Horonobe-cho near presumed Omagari-fault. Two dimensional resistivity inversion analysis was carried out and the resistivity structure from the surface to 250 m below sea level became clear. The resistivity structure was studied by comparing structure presumed from existing geological and geophysical informations. Resistivity distribution near surface was about 100 ohm-m and it became from 10 to 2 ohm-m as the depth increasing. Resistivity near presumed Omagari-fault was relatively lower than around that fault. Resistivity distribution was good agreement with two dimensional resistivity structure perfumed by AMT survey (2003) and existing electrical resistivity log data. Resistivity distribution of shallow zone at survey area was clear because the density of survey points were very high. (author)

  2. Levels of and changes in life satisfaction predict mortality hazards: Disentangling the role of physical health, perceived control, and social orientation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hülür, Gizem; Heckhausen, Jutta; Hoppmann, Christiane A; Infurna, Frank J; Wagner, Gert G; Ram, Nilam; Gerstorf, Denis

    2017-09-01

    It is well documented that well-being typically evinces precipitous decrements at the end of life. However, research has primarily taken a postdictive approach by knowing the outcome (date of death) and aligning, in retrospect, how well-being has changed for people with documented death events. In the present study, we made use of a predictive approach by examining whether and how levels of and changes in life satisfaction prospectively predict mortality hazards and delineate the role of contributing factors, including health, perceived control, and social orientation. To do so, we applied shared parameter growth-survival models to 20-year longitudinal data from 10,597 participants (n = 1,560 [15%] deceased; age at baseline: M = 44 years, SD = 17, range = 18-98 years) from the national German Socio-Economic Panel Study. Our findings showed that lower levels and steeper declines of life satisfaction each uniquely predicted higher mortality risks. Results also revealed moderating effects of age and perceived control: Life satisfaction levels and changes had stronger predictive effects for mortality hazards among older adults. Perceived control was associated with lower mortality hazards; however, this effect was diminished for those who experienced accelerated life satisfaction decline. Variance decomposition suggests that predictive effects of life satisfaction trajectories were partially unique (3%-6%) and partially shared with physical health, perceived control, and social orientation (17%-19%). Our discussion focuses on the strengths and challenges of a predictive approach to link developmental changes (in life satisfaction) to mortality hazards, and considers implications of our findings for healthy aging. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Motivations to play specifically predict excessive involvement in massively multiplayer online role-playing games: evidence from an online survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanetta Dauriat, Francesca; Zermatten, Ariane; Billieux, Joël; Thorens, Gabriel; Bondolfi, Guido; Zullino, Daniele; Khazaal, Yasser

    2011-01-01

    Several studies have linked massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs) with possible problematic usage or internet addiction. The main goal of the present study was to assess links between motivations to play in MMORPGs and addictive involvement in such types of games. A total of 696 gamers responded to an online survey. Five distinct motivations to play were identified in gamers: achievement, socializing, immersion, relaxing and escaping. Multiple regression analysis revealed that addictive MMORPG use patterns are predicted by achievement, escapism and socializing motives. Gender was also a significant predictor of problematic involvement in MMORPGs. Moreover, addictive MMORPG use positively correlated with the weekly time devoted to playing MMORPGs. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  4. Self-Concept Predicts Academic Achievement Across Levels of the Achievement Distribution: Domain Specificity for Math and Reading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susperreguy, Maria Ines; Davis-Kean, Pamela E; Duckworth, Kathryn; Chen, Meichu

    2017-09-18

    This study examines whether self-concept of ability in math and reading predicts later math and reading attainment across different levels of achievement. Data from three large-scale longitudinal data sets, the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development-Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development, and Panel Study of Income Dynamics-Child Development Supplement, were used to answer this question by employing quantile regression analyses. After controlling for demographic variables, child characteristics, and early ability, the findings indicate that self-concept of ability in math and reading predicts later achievement in each respective domain across all quantile levels of achievement. These results were replicated across the three data sets representing different populations and provide robust evidence for the role of self-concept of ability in understanding achievement from early childhood to adolescence across the spectrum of performance (low to high). © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

  5. Predictive modeling of crystal accumulation in high-level waste glass melters processing radioactive waste

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matyáš, Josef; Gervasio, Vivianaluxa; Sannoh, Sulaiman E.; Kruger, Albert A.

    2017-11-01

    The effectiveness of high-level waste vitrification at Hanford's Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant may be limited by precipitation/accumulation of spinel crystals [(Fe, Ni, Mn, Zn)(Fe, Cr)2O4] in the glass discharge riser of Joule-heated ceramic melters during idling. These crystals do not affect glass durability; however, if accumulated in thick layers, they can clog the melter and prevent discharge of molten glass into canisters. To address this problem, an empirical model was developed that can predict thicknesses of accumulated layers as a function of glass composition. This model predicts well the accumulation of single crystals and/or small-scale agglomerates, but excessive agglomeration observed in high-Ni-Fe glass resulted in an underprediction of accumulated layers, which gradually worsened over time as an increased number of agglomerates formed. The accumulation rate of ∼53.8 ± 3.7 μm/h determined for this glass will result in a ∼26 mm-thick layer after 20 days of melter idling.

  6. Household-level disparities in cancer risks from vehicular air pollution in Miami

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, Timothy W; Grineski, Sara E; Chakraborty, Jayajit

    2015-01-01

    Environmental justice (EJ) research has relied on ecological analyses of socio-demographic data from areal units to determine if particular populations are disproportionately burdened by toxic risks. This article advances quantitative EJ research by (a) examining whether statistical associations found for geographic units translate to relationships at the household level; (b) testing alternative explanations for distributional injustices never before investigated; and (c) applying a novel statistical technique appropriate for geographically-clustered data. Our study makes these advances by using generalized estimating equations to examine distributive environmental inequities in the Miami (Florida) metropolitan area, based on primary household-level survey data and census block-level cancer risk estimates of hazardous air pollutant (HAP) exposure from on-road mobile emission sources. In addition to modeling determinants of on-road HAP cancer risk among all survey participants, two subgroup models are estimated to examine whether determinants of risk differ based on disadvantaged minority (Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black) versus non-Hispanic white racial/ethnic status. Results reveal multiple determinants of risk exposure disparities. In the model including all survey participants, renter-occupancy, Hispanic and non-Hispanic black race/ethnicity, the desire to live close to work/urban services or public transportation, and higher risk perception are associated with greater on-road HAP cancer risk; the desire to live in an amenity-rich environment is associated with less risk. Divergent subgroup model results shed light on the previously unexamined role of racial/ethnic status in shaping determinants of risk exposures. While lower socioeconomic status and higher risk perception predict significantly greater on-road HAP cancer risk among disadvantaged minorities, the desire to live near work/urban services or public transport predict significantly greater risk among

  7. Impact of the Medical Faculty on Study Success in Freiburg: Results from Graduate Surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biller, Silke

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Aim: Using the data from graduate surveys, this study aims to analyze which factors related to teaching and learning at the Freiburg Faculty of Medicine can influence study success.Background: Study success and the factors influencing it have long been the subject of investigation, with study success being measured in terms of easily quantifiable indicators (final grades, student satisfaction, etc.. In recent years, it has also frequently been assessed in terms of graduate competency levels. Graduate surveys are considered suitable instruments for measuring these dimensions of study success.Method: Data from three Freiburg graduate surveys conducted one and a half years after graduation were drawn upon for the analysis.Study success was operationalized using four indicators: results on the written section of the M2 exam, self-assessment of medical expertise and scientific expertise, and student satisfaction. Using multiple regression analyses, the predictive power was calculated for selected variables, also measured by the graduate surveys, for the different study success indicators.Results: It was possible to identify models that contribute slightly or moderately to the prediction of study success. The score earned on the university entrance qualification demonstrated itself to be the strongest predictor for forecasting the M2 written exam: R is between 0.08 and 0.22 for the three surveys. Different variables specific to degree program structure and teaching are helpful for predicting medical expertise (R=0.04-0.32 and student satisfaction (R=0.12-0.35. The two variables, and , show themselves to be significant, sample-invariant predictors (β-weight=0.21-0.58, β-weight=0.27-0.56. For scientific expertise, no sample-independent predictors could be determined.Conclusion: Factors describing teaching hardly provide any assistance when predicting the written M2 exam score, which makes sense to the extent that teaching goes far beyond the heavily

  8. A predictive score for retinopathy of prematurity by using clinical risk factors and serum insulin-like growth factor-1 levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeşim Coşkun

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available AIM: To detect the impact of insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1 and other risk factors for the early prediction of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP and to establish a scoring system for ROP prediction by using clinical criteria and serum IGF-1 levels. METHODS: The study was conducted with 127 preterm infants. IGF-1 levels in the 1st day of life, 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th week of life was analyzed. The score was established after logistic regression analysis, considering the impact of each variable on the occurrences of any stage ROP. A validation cohort containing 107 preterm infants was included in the study and the predictive ability of ROP score was calculated. RESULTS: Birth weights (BW, gestational weeks (GW and the prevalence of breast milk consumption were lower, respiratory distress syndrome (RDS, bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD and necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC were more frequent, the duration of mechanical ventilation and oxygen supplementation was longer in patients with ROP (P<0.05. Initial serum IGF-1 levels tended to be lower in newborns who developed ROP. Logistic regression analysis revealed that low BW (<1250 g, presence of intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH and formula feeding increased the risk of ROP. Afterwards, the scoring system was validated on 107 infants. The negative predictive values of a score less than 4 were 84.3%, 74.7% and 79.8% while positive predictive values were 76.3%, 65.5% and 71.6% respectively. CONCLUSION: In addition to BW <1250 g and IVH, formula consumption was detected as a risk factor for the development of ROP. Breastfeeding is important for prevention of ROP in preterm infants.

  9. Geostatistical modelling of soil-transmitted helminth infection in Cambodia: do socioeconomic factors improve predictions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios; Odermatt, Peter; Biedermann, Patricia; Khieu, Virak; Schär, Fabian; Muth, Sinuon; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2015-01-01

    Soil-transmitted helminth infections are intimately connected with poverty. Yet, there is a paucity of using socioeconomic proxies in spatially explicit risk profiling. We compiled household-level socioeconomic data pertaining to sanitation, drinking-water, education and nutrition from readily available Demographic and Health Surveys, Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and World Health Surveys for Cambodia and aggregated the data at village level. We conducted a systematic review to identify parasitological surveys and made every effort possible to extract, georeference and upload the data in the open source Global Neglected Tropical Diseases database. Bayesian geostatistical models were employed to spatially align the village-aggregated socioeconomic predictors with the soil-transmitted helminth infection data. The risk of soil-transmitted helminth infection was predicted at a grid of 1×1km covering Cambodia. Additionally, two separate individual-level spatial analyses were carried out, for Takeo and Preah Vihear provinces, to assess and quantify the association between soil-transmitted helminth infection and socioeconomic indicators at an individual level. Overall, we obtained socioeconomic proxies from 1624 locations across the country. Surveys focussing on soil-transmitted helminth infections were extracted from 16 sources reporting data from 238 unique locations. We found that the risk of soil-transmitted helminth infection from 2000 onwards was considerably lower than in surveys conducted earlier. Population-adjusted prevalences for school-aged children from 2000 onwards were 28.7% for hookworm, 1.5% for Ascaris lumbricoides and 0.9% for Trichuris trichiura. Surprisingly, at the country-wide analyses, we did not find any significant association between soil-transmitted helminth infection and village-aggregated socioeconomic proxies. Based also on the individual-level analyses we conclude that socioeconomic proxies might not be good predictors at an

  10. Average County-Level IQ Predicts County-Level Disadvantage and Several County-Level Mortality Risk Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, J. C.; Beaver, Kevin M.; Boutwell, Brian B.

    2013-01-01

    Research utilizing individual-level data has reported a link between intelligence (IQ) scores and health problems, including early mortality risk. A growing body of evidence has found similar associations at higher levels of aggregation such as the state- and national-level. At the same time, individual-level research has suggested the…

  11. Metacognitive deficits predict future levels of negative symptoms in schizophrenia controlling for neurocognition, affect recognition, and self-expectation of goal attainment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lysaker, Paul H; Kukla, Marina; Dubreucq, Julien; Gumley, Andrew; McLeod, Hamish; Vohs, Jenifer L; Buck, Kelly D; Minor, Kyle S; Luther, Lauren; Leonhardt, Bethany L; Belanger, Elizabeth A; Popolo, Raffaele; Dimaggio, Giancarlo

    2015-10-01

    The recalcitrance of negative symptoms in the face of pharmacologic treatment has spurred interest in understanding the psychological factors that contribute to their formation and persistence. Accordingly, this study investigated whether deficits in metacognition, or the ability to form integrated ideas about oneself, others, and the world, prospectively predicted levels of negative symptoms independent of deficits in neurocognition, affect recognition and defeatist beliefs. Participants were 53 adults with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder. Prior to entry into a rehabilitation program, all participants completed concurrent assessments of metacognition with the Metacognitive Assessment Scale-Abbreviated, negative symptoms with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, neurocognition with the MATRICS battery, affect recognition with the Bell Lysaker Emotion Recognition Task, and one form of defeatist beliefs with the Recovery Assessment Scale. Negative symptoms were then reassessed one week, 9weeks, and 17weeks after entry into the program. A mixed effects regression model revealed that after controlling for baseline negative symptoms, a general index of neurocognition, defeatist beliefs and capacity for affect recognition, lower levels of metacognition predicted higher levels of negative symptoms across all subsequent time points. Poorer metacognition was able to predict later levels of elevated negative symptoms even after controlling for initial levels of negative symptoms. Results may suggest that metacognitive deficits are a risk factor for elevated levels of negative symptoms in the future. Clinical implications are also discussed. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  12. Overgeneral autobiographical memory predicts higher prospective levels of depressive symptoms and intrusions in borderline patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van den Broeck, Kris; Pieters, Guido; Claes, Laurence; Berens, Ann; Raes, Filip

    2016-11-01

    Overgeneral memory (OGM), the tendency to retrieve categories of events from autobiographical memory instead of single events, is found to be a reliable predictor for future mood disturbances and post-traumatic symptom severity. Patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD) often report co-morbid episodes of major depressive disorder (MDD) and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Therefore, we investigated whether OGM would predict depression severity and (post-traumatic) stress symptoms in BPD patients. At admission (N = 54) and at six-month follow-up (N ≥ 31), BPD patients completed the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Disorders, the Assessment of DSM-IV Personality Disorders, the Autobiographical Memory Test, the Beck Depression Inventory-2nd edition (BDI-II), and the Impact of Event Scale. OGM at baseline predicted (a) higher levels of depressive symptoms at follow-up and (b) more intrusions related to a stressful event over and above baseline levels of borderline symptoms, depressive symptoms, and intrusions, respectively. No association was found between memory specificity and event-related avoidance at follow-up. Despite previous findings suggesting that OGM in BPD is less robust than in MDD and PTSD, our results suggest that memory specificity in BPD patients may have some relevance for the course of depressive and stress symptomatology in BPD.

  13. Comparisons of predicted steady-state levels in rooms with extended- and local-reaction bounding surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgson, Murray; Wareing, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    A combined beam-tracing and transfer-matrix model for predicting steady-state sound-pressure levels in rooms with multilayer bounding surfaces was used to compare the effect of extended- and local-reaction surfaces, and the accuracy of the local-reaction approximation. Three rooms—an office, a corridor and a workshop—with one or more multilayer test surfaces were considered. The test surfaces were a single-glass panel, a double-drywall panel, a carpeted floor, a suspended-acoustical ceiling, a double-steel panel, and glass fibre on a hard backing. Each test surface was modeled as of extended or of local reaction. Sound-pressure levels were predicted and compared to determine the significance of the surface-reaction assumption. The main conclusions were that the difference between modeling a room surface as of extended or of local reaction is not significant when the surface is a single plate or a single layer of material (solid or porous) with a hard backing. The difference is significant when the surface consists of multilayers of solid or porous material and includes a layer of fluid with a large thickness relative to the other layers. The results are partially explained by considering the surface-reflection coefficients at the first-reflection angles.

  14. Evaluating Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise in the Northeastern United States - Approach and Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lentz, Erika E.; Stippa, Sawyer R.; Thieler, E. Robert; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Gesch, Dean B.; Horton, Radley M.

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. A Bayesian network is used to develop a predictive coastal response model that integrates the sea-level, elevation, and land-cover data with assigned probabilities that account for interactions with coastal geomorphology as well as the corresponding ecological and societal systems it supports. The effects of sea-level rise are presented as (1) level of landscape submergence and (2) coastal response type characterized as either static (that is, inundation) or dynamic (that is, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). The probabilistic predictions can be applied to landscape management decisions based on sea-level-rise effects as well as on assessments of the prediction uncertainty and need for improved data or fundamental understanding. This report describes the methods used to produce predictions, including information on input datasets; the modeling approach; model outputs; data-quality-control procedures; and information on how to access the data and metadata online.

  15. Evaluating coastal landscape response to sea-level rise in the northeastern United States: approach and methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lentz, Erika E.; Stippa, Sawyer R.; Thieler, E. Robert; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Gesch, Dean B.; Horton, Radley M.

    2014-02-13

    The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. A Bayesian network is used to develop a predictive coastal response model that integrates the sea-level, elevation, and land-cover data with assigned probabilities that account for interactions with coastal geomorphology as well as the corresponding ecological and societal systems it supports. The effects of sea-level rise are presented as (1) level of landscape submergence and (2) coastal response type characterized as either static (that is, inundation) or dynamic (that is, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). The probabilistic predictions can be applied to landscape management decisions based on sea-level-rise effects as well as on assessments of the prediction uncertainty and need for improved data or fundamental understanding. This report describes the methods used to produce predictions, including information on input datasets; the modeling approach; model outputs; data-quality-control procedures; and information on how to access the data and metadata online.

  16. Predictive Control of the Blood Glucose Level in Type I Diabetic Patient Using Delay Differential Equation Wang Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esna-Ashari, Mojgan; Zekri, Maryam; Askari, Masood; Khalili, Noushin

    2017-01-01

    Because of increasing risk of diabetes, the measurement along with control of blood sugar has been of great importance in recent decades. In type I diabetes, because of the lack of insulin secretion, the cells cannot absorb glucose leading to low level of glucose. To control blood glucose (BG), the insulin must be injected to the body. This paper proposes a method for BG level regulation in type I diabetes. The control strategy is based on nonlinear model predictive control. The aim of the proposed controller optimized with genetics algorithms is to measure BG level each time and predict it for the next time interval. This merit causes a less amount of control effort, which is the rate of insulin delivered to the patient body. Consequently, this method can decrease the risk of hypoglycemia, a lethal phenomenon in regulating BG level in diabetes caused by a low BG level. Two delay differential equation models, namely Wang model and Enhanced Wang model, are applied as controller model and plant, respectively. The simulation results exhibit an acceptable performance of the proposed controller in meal disturbance rejection and robustness against parameter changes. As a result, if the nutrition of the person decreases instantly, the hypoglycemia will not happen. Furthermore, comparing this method with other works, it was shown that the new method outperforms previous studies.

  17. Comparison of logistic regression and artificial neural network in low back pain prediction: second national health survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsaeian, M; Mohammad, K; Mahmoudi, M; Zeraati, H

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this investigation was to compare empirically predictive ability of an artificial neural network with a logistic regression in prediction of low back pain. Data from the second national health survey were considered in this investigation. This data includes the information of low back pain and its associated risk factors among Iranian people aged 15 years and older. Artificial neural network and logistic regression models were developed using a set of 17294 data and they were validated in a test set of 17295 data. Hosmer and Lemeshow recommendation for model selection was used in fitting the logistic regression. A three-layer perceptron with 9 inputs, 3 hidden and 1 output neurons was employed. The efficiency of two models was compared by receiver operating characteristic analysis, root mean square and -2 Loglikelihood criteria. The area under the ROC curve (SE), root mean square and -2Loglikelihood of the logistic regression was 0.752 (0.004), 0.3832 and 14769.2, respectively. The area under the ROC curve (SE), root mean square and -2Loglikelihood of the artificial neural network was 0.754 (0.004), 0.3770 and 14757.6, respectively. Based on these three criteria, artificial neural network would give better performance than logistic regression. Although, the difference is statistically significant, it does not seem to be clinically significant.

  18. Unchanged Levels of Soluble CD14 and IL-6 Over Time Predict Serious Non-AIDS Events in HIV-1-Infected People

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunil, Meena; Nigalye, Maitreyee; Somasunderam, Anoma; Martinez, Maria Laura; Yu, Xiaoying; Arduino, Roberto C.; Bell, Tanvir K.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract HIV-1-infected persons have increased risk of serious non-AIDS events (SNAEs) despite suppressive antiretroviral therapy. Increased circulating levels of soluble CD14 (sCD14), soluble CD163 (sCD163), and interleukin-6 (IL-6) at a single time point have been associated with SNAEs. However, whether changes in these biomarker levels predict SNAEs in HIV-1-infected persons is unknown. We hypothesized that greater decreases in inflammatory biomarkers would be associated with fewer SNAEs. We identified 39 patients with SNAEs, including major cardiovascular events, end stage renal disease, decompensated cirrhosis, non-AIDS-defining malignancies, and death of unknown cause, and age- and sex-matched HIV-1-infected controls. sCD14, sCD163, and IL-6 were measured at study enrollment (T1) and proximal to the event (T2) or equivalent duration in matched controls. Over ∼34 months, unchanged rather than decreasing levels of sCD14 and IL-6 predicted SNAEs. Older age and current illicit substance abuse, but not HCV coinfection, were associated with SNAEs. In a multivariate analysis, older age, illicit substance use, and unchanged IL-6 levels remained significantly associated with SNAEs. Thus, the trajectories of sCD14 and IL-6 levels predict SNAEs. Interventions to decrease illicit substance use may decrease the risk of SNAEs in HIV-1-infected persons. PMID:27344921

  19. Predicting College Students' First Year Success: Should Soft Skills Be Taken into Consideration to More Accurately Predict the Academic Achievement of College Freshmen?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Erica Dion

    2013-01-01

    This study presents a survey developed to measure the skills of entering college freshmen in the areas of responsibility, motivation, study habits, literacy, and stress management, and explores the predictive power of this survey as a measure of academic performance during the first semester of college. The survey was completed by 334 incoming…

  20. Surveying the elements of successful infrared predictive maintenance programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snell, John R., Jr.; Spring, Robert W.

    1991-03-01

    This paper summarizes the results of a survey of over three hundred maintenance personnel who use imaging equipment within their company or organization. All had previously participated in one or more of our training programs. The companies took in a broad range of industry, including, among other, power generation, pulp and paper, metals, mining, petrochemical, automotive and general manufacturing. The organizations were mainly quite large, either commercial or public, and included governmental agencies, military, colleges and universities, municipalities, and utilities. Although we had a very tight time line for the survey, we were pleased to have a 15% response rate. The results show that some of the causes of success and failure in infrared programs are not unlike those associated with any type of program in an organizational structure, i.e. the need for accurate and timely communications; justification requirements; etc. Another set of problems was shared more closely with other startup maintenance technologies (for example, vibration monitoring), such as the need for trending data; providing appropriate technical training; achieving reproducible results; etc. Finally, some of the driving mechanisms are more specific to this technology, such as re-designing equipment so that it can be thermally inspected; establishing effective documentation strategies; etc.

  1. Screening survey on thyroid exposure for children after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Eunjoo; Kurihara, Osamu; Suzuki, Toshikazu; Matsumoto, Masaki; Fukutsu, Kumiko; Yamada, Yuji; Sugiura, Nobuyuki; Akashi, Makoto [National Institute of Radiological Sciences, Research Center for Radiation Emergency Medicine, Chiba, Chiba (Japan)

    2012-11-15

    In response to a serious accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, National Institute of Radiological Sciences (NIRS) established a protocol for a screening survey of thyroid exposure for children living in areas where thyroid doses were predicted to be high. The aim of the screening survey was to implement measurements for a large number of subjects with conventional NaI(Tl) scintillation survey meters. This protocol was applied to the screening survey of 1,149 children at five locations in three municipalities (Kawamata Town, Iitate Village and Iwaki City). Among 1,080 children (excluding 69 subjects from evaluation), there were no subjects who exceeded a screening level (0.2 {mu}Sv h{sup -1}) corresponding to a thyroid equivalent dose of 100 mSv (for the age group of 1-y-old as of March 24). No significant signals were detected in 55.4% of these subjects and the maximum dose was found to be 43 mSv. This paper presents details on the protocol as well as results of the screening survey. (author)

  2. A survey of 90Sr and 137Cs activity levels of retail foods in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abukawa, J.; Tsubuku, C.; Hayano, K.; Hirano, K.

    1998-01-01

    A comprehensive survey was conducted on 90 Sr and 137 Cs activity levels in retail foods purchased from retail markets all over Japan during the period 1989-1994, and the annual effective dose equivalent due to dietary ingestion was estimated. The concentrations of 90 Sr and 137 Cs in the food samples were determined using γ-ray spectrometry and the radiochemical method. The following were clarified by this study: (1) The 90 Sr and 137 Cs activity concentration levels were below 1 Bq kg -1 for almost all food samples except for the dried foods. (2) The activity concentration levels of 90 Sr and 137 Cs in foods of animal origin were different from those of plant origin. Generally, the former had higher 137 Cs and lower 90 Sr activity concentrations than the latter. (3) The mean and maximum values of the annual effective dose equivalent from a dietary intake of 90 Sr and 137 Cs by the consumption of retail foods were estimated to be as low as 1·3 and 4·1 μSv, respectively. (Copyright (c) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

  3. Acoustic Log Prediction on the Basis of Kernel Extreme Learning Machine for Wells in GJH Survey, Erdos Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianhua Cao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In petroleum exploration, the acoustic log (DT is popularly used as an estimator to calculate formation porosity, to carry out petrophysical studies, or to participate in geological analysis and research (e.g., to map abnormal pore-fluid pressure. But sometime it does not exist in those old wells drilled 20 years ago, either because of data loss or because of just being not recorded at that time. Thus synthesizing the DT log becomes the necessary task for the researchers. In this paper we propose using kernel extreme learning machine (KELM to predict missing sonic (DT logs when only common logs (e.g., natural gamma ray: GR, deep resistivity: REID, and bulk density: DEN are available. The common logs are set as predictors and the DT log is the target. By using KELM, a prediction model is firstly created based on the experimental data and then confirmed and validated by blind-testing the results in wells containing both the predictors and the target (DT values used in the supervised training. Finally the optimal model is set up as a predictor. A case study for wells in GJH survey from the Erdos Basin, about velocity inversion using the KELM-estimated DT values, is presented. The results are promising and encouraging.

  4. Serum uric acid level predicts adverse outcomes after myocardial revascularization or cardiac valve surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazzeroni, Davide; Bini, Matteo; Camaiora, Umberto; Castiglioni, Paolo; Moderato, Luca; Bosi, Davide; Geroldi, Simone; Ugolotti, Pietro T; Brambilla, Lorenzo; Brambilla, Valerio; Coruzzi, Paolo

    2018-01-01

    Background High levels of serum uric acid have been associated with adverse outcomes in cardiovascular diseases such as myocardial infarction and heart failure. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the prognostic role of serum uric acid levels in patients undergoing cardiac rehabilitation after myocardial revascularization and/or cardiac valve surgery. Design We performed an observational prospective cohort study. Methods The study included 1440 patients with available serum uric acid levels, prospectively followed for 50 ± 17 months. Mean age was 67 ± 11 years; 781 patients (54%) underwent myocardial revascularization, 474 (33%) cardiac valve surgery and 185 (13%) valve-plus-coronary artery by-pass graft surgery. The primary endpoints were overall and cardiovascular mortality while secondary end-points were combined major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events. Results Serum uric acid level mean values were 286 ± 95 µmol/l and elevated serum uric acid levels (≥360 µmol/l or 6 mg/dl) were found in 275 patients (19%). Overall mortality (hazard ratio = 2.1; 95% confidence interval: 1.5-3.0; p uric acid levels, even after adjustment for age, gender, arterial hypertension, diabetes, glomerular filtration rate, atrial fibrillation and medical therapy. Moreover, strong positive correlations between serum uric acid level and probability of overall mortality ( p uric acid levels predict mortality and adverse cardiovascular outcome in patients undergoing myocardial revascularization and/or cardiac valve surgery even after the adjustment for age, gender, arterial hypertension, diabetes, glomerular filtration rate and medical therapy.

  5. Mental Health Functioning in the Human Rights Field: Findings from an International Internet-Based Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joscelyne, Amy; Knuckey, Sarah; Satterthwaite, Margaret L; Bryant, Richard A; Li, Meng; Qian, Meng; Brown, Adam D

    2015-01-01

    Human rights advocates play a critical role in promoting respect for human rights world-wide, and engage in a broad range of strategies, including documentation of rights violations, monitoring, press work and report-writing, advocacy, and litigation. However, little is known about the impact of human rights work on the mental health of human rights advocates. This study examined the mental health profile of human rights advocates and risk factors associated with their psychological functioning. 346 individuals currently or previously working in the field of human rights completed an internet-based survey regarding trauma exposure, depression, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), resilience and occupational burnout. PTSD was measured with the Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist-Civilian Version (PCL-C) and depression was measured with the Patient History Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9). These findings revealed that among human rights advocates that completed the survey, 19.4% met criteria for PTSD, 18.8% met criteria for subthreshold PTSD, and 14.7% met criteria for depression. Multiple linear regressions revealed that after controlling for symptoms of depression, PTSD symptom severity was predicted by human rights-related trauma exposure, perfectionism and negative self-appraisals about human rights work. In addition, after controlling for symptoms of PTSD, depressive symptoms were predicted by perfectionism and lower levels of self-efficacy. Survey responses also suggested high levels of resilience: 43% of responders reported minimal symptoms of PTSD. Although survey responses suggest that many human rights workers are resilient, they also suggest that human rights work is associated with elevated rates of PTSD and depression. The field of human rights would benefit from further empirical research, as well as additional education and training programs in the workplace about enhancing resilience in the context of human rights work.

  6. Mental Health Functioning in the Human Rights Field: Findings from an International Internet-Based Survey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy Joscelyne

    Full Text Available Human rights advocates play a critical role in promoting respect for human rights world-wide, and engage in a broad range of strategies, including documentation of rights violations, monitoring, press work and report-writing, advocacy, and litigation. However, little is known about the impact of human rights work on the mental health of human rights advocates. This study examined the mental health profile of human rights advocates and risk factors associated with their psychological functioning. 346 individuals currently or previously working in the field of human rights completed an internet-based survey regarding trauma exposure, depression, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD, resilience and occupational burnout. PTSD was measured with the Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist-Civilian Version (PCL-C and depression was measured with the Patient History Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9. These findings revealed that among human rights advocates that completed the survey, 19.4% met criteria for PTSD, 18.8% met criteria for subthreshold PTSD, and 14.7% met criteria for depression. Multiple linear regressions revealed that after controlling for symptoms of depression, PTSD symptom severity was predicted by human rights-related trauma exposure, perfectionism and negative self-appraisals about human rights work. In addition, after controlling for symptoms of PTSD, depressive symptoms were predicted by perfectionism and lower levels of self-efficacy. Survey responses also suggested high levels of resilience: 43% of responders reported minimal symptoms of PTSD. Although survey responses suggest that many human rights workers are resilient, they also suggest that human rights work is associated with elevated rates of PTSD and depression. The field of human rights would benefit from further empirical research, as well as additional education and training programs in the workplace about enhancing resilience in the context of human rights work.

  7. U.S. Geological Survey Water science strategy--observing, understanding, predicting, and delivering water science to the nation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evenson, Eric J.; Orndorff, Randall C.; Blome, Charles D.; Böhlke, John Karl; Hershberger, Paul K.; Langenheim, V.E.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Morlock, Scott E.; Reeves, Howard W.; Verdin, James P.; Weyers, Holly S.; Wood, Tamara M.

    2013-01-01

    This report expands the Water Science Strategy that began with the USGS Science Strategy, “Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges—U.S. Geological Survey Science in the Decade 2007–2017” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). This report looks at the relevant issues facing society and develops a strategy built around observing, understanding, predicting, and delivering water science for the next 5 to 10 years by building new capabilities, tools, and delivery systems to meet the Nation’s water-resource needs. This report begins by presenting the vision of water science for the USGS and the societal issues that are influenced by, and in turn influence, the water resources of our Nation. The essence of the Water Science Strategy is built on the concept of “water availability,” defined as spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and quality, as related to human and ecosystem needs, as affected by human and natural influences. The report also describes the core capabilities of the USGS in water science—the strengths, partnerships, and science integrity that the USGS has built over its 134-year history. Nine priority actions are presented in the report, which combine and elevate the numerous specific strategic actions listed throughout the report. Priority actions were developed as a means of providing the audience of this report with a list for focused attention, even if resources and time limit the ability of managers to address all of the strategic actions in the report.

  8. Pulmonary function levels as predictors of mortality in a national sample of US adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neas, L M; Schwartz, J

    1998-06-01

    Single breath pulmonary diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DL(CO)) was examined as a predictor of all-cause mortality among 4,333 subjects who were aged 25-74 years at baseline in the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I) conducted from 1971 to 1975. The relation of the percentage of predicted DL(CO) to all-cause mortality was examined in a Cox proportional hazard model that included age, sex, race, current smoking status, systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol, alcohol consumption, body mass index, percentage of predicted forced vital capacity (FVC), and the ratio of forced expiratory volume at 1 second (FEV1) to FVC. Mortality had a linear association with the percentage of predicted FVC (rate ratio (RR) = 1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-1.17, for a 10% decrement) and a significantly nonlinear association with the percentage of predicted DL(CO) with an adverse effect that was clearly evident for levels below 85% of those predicted (RR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.12-1.37 for a 10% decrement). The relative hazard for the percentage of predicted DL(CO) below 85% was not modified by sex, smoking status, or exclusion of subjects with clinical respiratory disease on the initial examination. This association with the percentage of predicted DL(CO) was present among 3,005 subjects with FEV1 levels above 90% of those predicted. Thus, pulmonary diffusing capacity below 85% of predicted levels is a significant predictor of the all-cause mortality rate within the general US population independent of standard spirometry measures and even in the absence of apparent clinical respiratory disease.

  9. Baseline placental growth factor levels for the prediction of benefit from early aspirin prophylaxis for preeclampsia prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Gaea S; Allshouse, Amanda A; Winn, Virginia D; Galan, Henry L; Heyborne, Kent D

    2015-10-01

    Placental growth factor (PlGF) levels early in pregnancy are lower in women who ultimately develop preeclampsia. Early initiation of low-dose aspirin reduces preeclampsia risk in some high risk women. We hypothesized that low PlGF levels may identify women at increased risk for preeclampsia who would benefit from aspirin. Secondary analysis of the MFMU High-Risk Aspirin study including singleton pregnancies randomized to aspirin 60mg/d (n=102) or placebo (n=72), with PlGF collected at 13w 0d-16w 6d. Within the placebo group, we estimated the probability of preeclampsia by PlGF level using logistic regression analysis, then determined a potential PlGF threshold for preeclampsia prediction using ROC analysis. We performed logistic regression modeling for potential confounders. ROC analysis indicated 87.71pg/ml as the threshold between high and low PlGF for preeclampsia-prediction. Within the placebo group high PlGF weakly predicted preeclampsia (AUC 0.653, sensitivity/specificity 63%/66%). We noted a 2.6-fold reduction in preeclampsia with aspirin in the high-PlGF group (12.15% aspirin vs 32.14% placebo, p=0.057), but no significant differences in preeclampsia in the low PlGF group (21.74% vs 15.91%, p=0.445). Unlike other studies, we found that high rather than low PlGF levels were associated with an increased preeclampsia risk. Low PlGF neither identified women at increased risk of preeclampsia nor women who benefitted from aspirin. Further research is needed to determine whether aspirin is beneficial in women with high PlGF, and whether the paradigm linking low PlGF and preeclampsia needs to be reevaluated. High-risk women with low baseline PlGF, a risk factor for preeclampsia, did not benefit from early initiation of low-dose aspirin. Copyright © 2015 International Society for the Study of Hypertension in Pregnancy. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. A GIS-model for predicting the impact of climate change on shore erosion in hydroelectric reservoirs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Penner, L.A.; Zimmer, T.A.M.; St Laurent, M.

    2008-01-01

    Shoreline erosion affects inland lakes and hydroelectric reservoirs in several ways. This poster described a vector-based geographic information system (GIS) model designed to predict changes in shore zone geometry, top-of-bluff recession, and eroded sediment volumes. The model was designed for use in Manitoba Hydro's reservoirs in northern Manitoba, and simulated near-shore downcutting and bank recession caused by wind-generated waves. Parameters for the model included deep water wave energy, and water level fluctuations. Effective wave energy was seen as a function of the water level fluctuation range, wave conditions, and near-shore slope. The model was validated by field monitoring studies that included repeated shore zone transect surveys and sediment coring studies. Results of the study showed that the model provides a systematic method of predicting potential changes in erosion associated with climatic change. The volume and mass of eroded sediment predicted for the different modelling scenarios will be used as input data for future sedimentation models. tabs., figs

  11. Young people's mental health first aid intentions and beliefs prospectively predict their actions: findings from an Australian National Survey of Youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yap, Marie Bee Hui; Jorm, Anthony Francis

    2012-04-30

    Little is known about whether mental health first aid knowledge and beliefs of young people actually translate into actual behavior. This study examined whether young people's first aid intentions and beliefs predicted the actions they later took to help a close friend or family member with a mental health problem. Participants in a 2006 national survey of Australian youth (aged 12-25 years) reported on their first aid intentions and beliefs based on one of four vignettes: depression, depression with alcohol misuse, psychosis, and social phobia. At a two-year follow-up interview, they reported on actions they had taken to help any family member or close friend with a problem similar to the vignette character since the initial interview. Of the 2005 participants interviewed at follow-up, 608 reported knowing someone with a similar problem. Overall, young people's first aid intentions and beliefs about the helpfulness of particular first aid actions predicted the actions they actually took to assist a close other. However, the belief in and intention to encourage professional help did not predict subsequent action. Findings suggest that young people's mental health first aid intentions and beliefs may be valid indicators of their subsequent actions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Changes in Income at Macro Level Predict Sex Ratio at Birth in OECD Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanninen, Ohto; Karhula, Aleksi

    2016-01-01

    The human sex ratio at birth (SRB) is approximately 107 boys for every 100 girls. SRB was rising until the World War II and has been declining slightly after the 1950s in several industrial countries. Recent studies have shown that SRB varies according to exposure to disasters and socioeconomic conditions. However, it remains unknown whether changes in SRB can be explained by observable macro-level socioeconomic variables across multiple years and countries. Here we show that changes in disposable income at the macro level positively predict SRB in OECD countries. A one standard deviation increase in the change of disposable income is associated with an increase of 1.03 male births per 1000 female births. The relationship is possibly nonlinear and driven by extreme changes. The association varies from country to country being particular strong in Estonia. This is the first evidence to show that economic and social conditions are connected to SRB across countries at the macro level. This calls for further research on the effects of societal conditions on general characteristics at birth.

  13. Skeletal surveys in multiple myeloma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sebes, J.I.; Niell, H.B.; Palmieri, G.M.A.; Reidy, T.J.

    1986-01-01

    Thirty-three patients with multiple myeloma were studied with serial skeletal surveys, serum immunoglobulin levels, and postabsorptive urinary hydroxyproline (Spot-HYPRO) determinations. Twenty receiving chemotherapy were also followed with skeletal surveys in order to evaluate bone response to treatment. A close association was found between skeletal findings and changes in immunoglubulin levels with positive correlation in 71% of the patients. A similar association was found between skeletal disease and Spot-HYPRO level changes in 65%. Five of 12 patients (42%) with partial or complete clinical response to chemotherapy, demonstrated improvement in the appearance of skeletal lesions. Positive correlation between the roentgenographic changes and clinical markers of myeloma as well as therapeutic response, indicates that skeletal surveys are useful and effective in monitoring patients with multiple myeloma. (orig.)

  14. Body mass index and cholesterol level predict surgical outcome in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in Taiwan - a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ya-Ling; Li, Wan-Chun; Tsai, Tung-Hu; Chiang, Hsin-Yu; Ting, Chin-Tsung

    2016-04-19

    Curative surgical resection (CSR) remains the most effective therapeutic intervention for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC); however, frequent post-surgical recurrence leads to high cancer related mortality. This study aimed to clarify the role of body mass index (BMI) and serum cholesterol level in predicting post-surgical outcomes in HCC patients after CSR. A total of 484 HCC patients including 213 BMIhigh and 271 BMIlow patients were included. Overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates were examined in patients with differential BMI and serum cholesterol level. The analysis showed that significant different 1-, 3- and 5-year cumulative OS rates (P-value=0.015) and RFS rate (P-value=0.010) between BMIlow and BMIhigh patients. Further analysis in groups with differential serum cholesterol levels among BMIlow and BMIhigh patients indicated that the BMIlow/Chollow patients exhibited the significant lower cumulative OS and RFS rates in comparison with the remaining subjects (P-value=0.007 and 0.039 for OS and RFS rates, respectively). In conclusion, the coexistence of low BMI and low serum cholesterol level could serve as prognostic factors to predict post-operative outcomes in HCC patients undergoing surgical hepatectomy.

  15. Demographic Prediction of Juvenile Delinquency across and within Delinquency Levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fink, Michael D.; Truckenmiller, James L.

    Demographic prediction of juvenile delinquency has been hampered by the heterogeniety of youth samples. In an attempt to correct for sampling bias in predicting juvenile delinquency, 1,689 male and female youths(aged 12 to 19, drawn from a 6 percent systematic, census tract, random sample of Pennsylvania school youths) completed the Youth Needs…

  16. Predicting groundwater level fluctuations with meteorological effect implications—A comparative study among soft computing techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiri, Jalal; Kisi, Ozgur; Yoon, Heesung; Lee, Kang-Kun; Hossein Nazemi, Amir

    2013-07-01

    The knowledge of groundwater table fluctuations is important in agricultural lands as well as in the studies related to groundwater utilization and management levels. This paper investigates the abilities of Gene Expression Programming (GEP), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) techniques for groundwater level forecasting in following day up to 7-day prediction intervals. Several input combinations comprising water table level, rainfall and evapotranspiration values from Hongcheon Well station (South Korea), covering a period of eight years (2001-2008) were used to develop and test the applied models. The data from the first six years were used for developing (training) the applied models and the last two years data were reserved for testing. A comparison was also made between the forecasts provided by these models and the Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) technique. Based on the comparisons, it was found that the GEP models could be employed successfully in forecasting water table level fluctuations up to 7 days beyond data records.

  17. Potential impact of predicted sea level rise on carbon sink function of mangrove ecosystems with special reference to Negombo estuary, Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, K. A. R. S.; De Silva, K. H. W. L.; Amarasinghe, M. D.

    2018-02-01

    Unique location in the land-sea interface makes mangrove ecosystems most vulnerable to the impacts of predicted sea level rise due to increasing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Among others, carbon sink function of these tropical ecosystems that contribute to reduce rising atmospheric CO2 and temperature, could potentially be affected most. Present study was undertaken to explore the extent of impact of the predicted sea level rise for the region on total organic carbon (TOC) pools of the mangrove ecosystems in Negombo estuary located on the west coast of Sri Lanka. Extents of the coastal inundations under minimum (0.09 m) and maximum (0.88 m) sea level rise scenarios of IPCC for 2100 and an intermediate level of 0.48 m were determined with GIS tools. Estimated total capacity of organic carbon retention by these mangrove areas was 499.45 Mg C ha- 1 of which 84% (418.98 Mg C ha- 1) sequestered in the mangrove soil and 16% (80.56 Mg C ha- 1) in the vegetation. Total extent of land area potentially affected by inundation under lowest sea level rise scenario was 218.9 ha, while it was 476.2 ha under intermediate rise and 696.0 ha with the predicted maximum sea level rise. Estimated rate of loss of carbon sink function due to inundation by the sea level rise of 0.09 m is 6.30 Mg C ha- 1 y- 1 while the intermediate sea level rise indicated a loss of 9.92 Mg C ha- 1 y- 1 and under maximum sea level rise scenario, this loss further increases up to 11.32 Mg C ha- 1 y- 1. Adaptation of mangrove plants to withstand inundation and landward migration along with escalated photosynthetic rates, augmented by changing rainfall patterns and availability of nutrients may contribute to reduce the rate of loss of carbon sink function of these mangrove ecosystems. Predictions over change in carbon sequestration function of mangroves in Negombo estuary reveals that it is not only affected by oceanographic and hydrological alterations associated with sea level rise but also by anthropogenic

  18. Prediction of infarct severity from triiodothyronine levels in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dong Hun; Choi, Dong-Hyun; Kim, Hyun-Wook; Choi, Seo-Won; Kim, Bo-Bae; Chung, Joong-Wha; Koh, Young-Youp; Chang, Kyong-Sig; Hong, Soon-Pyo

    2014-07-01

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate the relationship between thyroid hormone levels and infarct severity in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). We retrospectively reviewed thyroid hormone levels, infarct severity, and the extent of transmurality in 40 STEMI patients evaluated via contrast-enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance imaging. The high triiodothyronine (T3) group (≥ 68.3 ng/dL) exhibited a significantly higher extent of transmural involvement (late transmural enhancement > 75% after administration of gadolinium contrast agent) than did the low T3 group (60% vs. 15%; p = 0.003). However, no significant difference was evident between the high- and low-thyroid-stimulating hormone/free thyroxine (FT4) groups. When the T3 cutoff level was set to 68.3 ng/dL using a receiver operating characteristic curve, the sensitivity was 80% and the specificity 68% in terms of differentiating between those with and without transmural involvement. Upon logistic regression analysis, high T3 level was an independent predictor of transmural involvement after adjustment for the presence of diabetes mellitus (DM) and the use of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors (odds ratio, 40.62; 95% confidence interval, 3.29 to 502; p = 0.004). The T3 level predicted transmural involvement that was independent of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitor use and DM positivity.

  19. Levels of naturally occurring gamma radiation measured in British homes and their prediction in particular residences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kendall, G.M. [University of Oxford, Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Oxford (United Kingdom); Wakeford, R. [University of Manchester, Centre for Occupational and Environmental Health, Institute of Population Health, Manchester (United Kingdom); Athanson, M. [University of Oxford, Bodleian Library, Oxford (United Kingdom); Vincent, T.J. [University of Oxford, Childhood Cancer Research Group, Oxford (United Kingdom); Carter, E.J. [University of Worcester, Earth Heritage Trust, Geological Records Centre, Henwick Grove, Worcester (United Kingdom); McColl, N.P. [Public Health England, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Chilton, Didcot, Oxon (United Kingdom); Little, M.P. [National Cancer Institute, DHHS, NIH, Radiation Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, Bethesda, MD (United States)

    2016-03-15

    Gamma radiation from natural sources (including directly ionising cosmic rays) is an important component of background radiation. In the present paper, indoor measurements of naturally occurring gamma rays that were undertaken as part of the UK Childhood Cancer Study are summarised, and it is shown that these are broadly compatible with an earlier UK National Survey. The distribution of indoor gamma-ray dose rates in Great Britain is approximately normal with mean 96 nGy/h and standard deviation 23 nGy/h. Directly ionising cosmic rays contribute about one-third of the total. The expanded dataset allows a more detailed description than previously of indoor gamma-ray exposures and in particular their geographical variation. Various strategies for predicting indoor natural background gamma-ray dose rates were explored. In the first of these, a geostatistical model was fitted, which assumes an underlying geologically determined spatial variation, superimposed on which is a Gaussian stochastic process with Matern correlation structure that models the observed tendency of dose rates in neighbouring houses to correlate. In the second approach, a number of dose-rate interpolation measures were first derived, based on averages over geologically or administratively defined areas or using distance-weighted averages of measurements at nearest-neighbour points. Linear regression was then used to derive an optimal linear combination of these interpolation measures. The predictive performances of the two models were compared via cross-validation, using a randomly selected 70 % of the data to fit the models and the remaining 30 % to test them. The mean square error (MSE) of the linear-regression model was lower than that of the Gaussian-Matern model (MSE 378 and 411, respectively). The predictive performance of the two candidate models was also evaluated via simulation; the OLS model performs significantly better than the Gaussian-Matern model. (orig.)

  20. Levels of naturally occurring gamma radiation measured in British homes and their prediction in particular residences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kendall, G.M.; Wakeford, R.; Athanson, M.; Vincent, T.J.; Carter, E.J.; McColl, N.P.; Little, M.P.

    2016-01-01

    Gamma radiation from natural sources (including directly ionising cosmic rays) is an important component of background radiation. In the present paper, indoor measurements of naturally occurring gamma rays that were undertaken as part of the UK Childhood Cancer Study are summarised, and it is shown that these are broadly compatible with an earlier UK National Survey. The distribution of indoor gamma-ray dose rates in Great Britain is approximately normal with mean 96 nGy/h and standard deviation 23 nGy/h. Directly ionising cosmic rays contribute about one-third of the total. The expanded dataset allows a more detailed description than previously of indoor gamma-ray exposures and in particular their geographical variation. Various strategies for predicting indoor natural background gamma-ray dose rates were explored. In the first of these, a geostatistical model was fitted, which assumes an underlying geologically determined spatial variation, superimposed on which is a Gaussian stochastic process with Matern correlation structure that models the observed tendency of dose rates in neighbouring houses to correlate. In the second approach, a number of dose-rate interpolation measures were first derived, based on averages over geologically or administratively defined areas or using distance-weighted averages of measurements at nearest-neighbour points. Linear regression was then used to derive an optimal linear combination of these interpolation measures. The predictive performances of the two models were compared via cross-validation, using a randomly selected 70 % of the data to fit the models and the remaining 30 % to test them. The mean square error (MSE) of the linear-regression model was lower than that of the Gaussian-Matern model (MSE 378 and 411, respectively). The predictive performance of the two candidate models was also evaluated via simulation; the OLS model performs significantly better than the Gaussian-Matern model. (orig.)

  1. Quantification by qPCR of Pathobionts in Chronic Periodontitis: Development of Predictive Models of Disease Severity at Site-Specific Level

    OpenAIRE

    Tomás, Inmaculada; Regueira-Iglesias, Alba; López, Maria; Arias-Bujanda, Nora; Novoa, Lourdes; Balsa-Castro, Carlos; Tomás, Maria

    2017-01-01

    Currently, there is little evidence available on the development of predictive models for the diagnosis or prognosis of chronic periodontitis based on the qPCR quantification of subgingival pathobionts. Our objectives were to: (1) analyze and internally validate pathobiont-based models that could be used to distinguish different periodontal conditions at site-specific level within the same patient with chronic periodontitis; (2) develop nomograms derived from predictive models. Subgingival pl...

  2. Media Influence on Sexual Activity and Contraceptive Use: A Cross Sectional Survey among Young Women in Urban Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajoga, Ummulkhulthum A; Atagame, Ken L; Okigbo, Chinelo C

    2015-09-01

    This study assessed the relationship between recent exposure to family planning (FP) messages in the media (newspaper, radio, television, and mobile phones) and use of modern contraceptive methods among women aged 15-24 years living in six cities in Nigeria. Logistic regression models were used to predict recent media exposure to FP messages and its association with sexual experience and modern contraceptive method use. About 45% of our sample had ever had sex with only a quarter of them using a modern contraceptive method at the time of survey. Approximately 71% of our sample was exposed to FP messages in the media within the three months preceding the survey. The main sources of media exposure were mobile phones (48%), radio (37%), and television (29%). Controlling for relevant factors, recent media exposure to FP messages predicted both sexual experience and use of modern contraceptive methods, although there were city-level differences.

  3. School Leavers' Survey Report 2007

    OpenAIRE

    Byrne, Delma; McCoy, Selina; Watson, Dorothy

    2008-01-01

    Since the late 1970s the Economic and Social Research Institute has conduced research on recent school leavers in the Republic of Ireland on behalf of various government departments. The School Leavers’ Survey has been in existence since it first surveyed young people who left the second-level education system in the academic year 1978/1979. Since its inception, 24 surveys in all have been carried out either on a yearly or bi-yearly basis, until the most recent survey which survey...

  4. Evolutionary Modeling Predicts a Decrease in Postcopulatory Sperm Viability as a Response to Increasing Levels of Sperm Competition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engqvist, Leif

    Sperm competition has been found to have a strong influence on the evolution of many male and female reproductive traits. Theoretical models have shown that, with increasing levels of sperm competition, males are predicted to increase ejaculate investment, and there is ample empirical evidence

  5. Studying dark energy with galaxy cluster surveys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohr, Joseph J.; O'Shea, Brian; Evrard, August E.; Bialek, John; Haiman, Zoltan

    2003-01-01

    Galaxy cluster surveys provide a powerful means of studying the density and nature of the dark energy. The redshift distribution of detected clusters in a deep, large solid angle SZE or X-ray survey is highly sensitive to the dark energy equation of state. Accurate constraints at the 5% level on the dark energy equation of state require that systematic biases in the mass estimators must be controlled at better than the ∼10% level. Observed regularity in the cluster population and the availability of multiple, independent mass estimators suggests these precise measurements are possible. Using hydrodynamical simulations that include preheating, we show that the level of preheating required to explain local galaxy cluster structure has a dramatic effect on X-ray cluster surveys, but only a mild effect on SZE surveys. This suggests that SZE surveys may be optimal for cosmology while X-ray surveys are well suited for studies of the thermal history of the intracluster medium

  6. Validation of the Predicted Circumferential and Radial Mode Sound Power Levels in the Inlet and Exhaust Ducts of a Fan Ingesting Distorted Inflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, L. Danielle

    2012-01-01

    Fan inflow distortion tone noise has been studied computationally and experimentally. Data from two experiments in the NASA Glenn Advanced Noise Control Fan rig have been used to validate acoustic predictions. The inflow to the fan was distorted by cylindrical rods inserted radially into the inlet duct one rotor chord length upstream of the fan. The rods were arranged in both symmetric and asymmetric circumferential patterns. In-duct and farfield sound pressure level measurements were recorded. It was discovered that for positive circumferential modes, measured circumferential mode sound power levels in the exhaust duct were greater than those in the inlet duct and for negative circumferential modes, measured total circumferential mode sound power levels in the exhaust were less than those in the inlet. Predicted trends in overall sound power level were proven to be useful in identifying circumferentially asymmetric distortion patterns that reduce overall inlet distortion tone noise, as compared to symmetric arrangements of rods. Detailed comparisons between the measured and predicted radial mode sound power in the inlet and exhaust duct indicate limitations of the theory.

  7. Predicting Where a Radiation Will Occur: Acoustic and Molecular Surveys Reveal Overlooked Diversity in Indian Ocean Island Crickets (Mogoplistinae: Ornebius.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ben H Warren

    Full Text Available Recent theory suggests that the geographic location of island radiations (local accumulation of species diversity due to cladogenesis can be predicted based on island area and isolation. Crickets are a suitable group for testing these predictions, as they show both the ability to reach some of the most isolated islands in the world, and to speciate at small spatial scales. Despite substantial song variation between closely related species in many island cricket lineages worldwide, to date this characteristic has not received attention in the western Indian Ocean islands; existing species descriptions are based on morphology alone. Here we use a combination of acoustics and DNA sequencing to survey these islands for Ornebius crickets. We uncover a small but previously unknown radiation in the Mascarenes, constituting a three-fold increase in the Ornebius species diversity of this archipelago (from two to six species. A further new species is detected in the Comoros. Although double archipelago colonisation is the best explanation for species diversity in the Seychelles, in situ cladogenesis is the best explanation for the six species in the Mascarenes and two species of the Comoros. Whether the radiation of Mascarene Ornebius results from intra- or purely inter- island speciation cannot be determined on the basis of the phylogenetic data alone. However, the existence of genetic, song and ecological divergence at the intra-island scale is suggestive of an intra-island speciation scenario in which ecological and mating traits diverge hand-in-hand. Our results suggest that the geographic location of Ornebius radiations is partially but not fully explained by island area and isolation. A notable anomaly is Madagascar, where our surveys are consistent with existing accounts in finding no Ornebius species present. Possible explanations are discussed, invoking ecological differences between species and differences in environmental history between

  8. Survey on damage mechanics models for fatigue life prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Silitonga, S.; Maljaars, J.; Soetens, F.; Snijder, H.H.

    2013-01-01

    Engineering methods to predict the fatigue life of structures have been available since the beginning of the 20th century. However, a practical problem arises from complex loading conditions and a significant concern is the accuracy of the methods under variable amplitude loading. This paper

  9. Low Vitamin D Levels Do Not Predict Hyperglycemia in Elderly Endurance Athletes (but in Controls.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helmuth Haslacher

    Full Text Available Recent studies revealed a link between hypovitaminosis D3 and the risk for hyperglycemia. Further mechanistic and interventional investigations suggested a common reason for both conditions rather than a causal relationship. Exposure to sunlight is the most relevant source of vitamin D3 (25(OHD, whereas adipose tissue is able to store relevant amounts of the lipophilic vitamin. Since running/bicycling leads to increased out-door time and alters physiological response mechanisms, it can be hypothesized that the correlation between hypovitaminosis D3 and hyperglycemia might be disturbed in outdoor athletes.47 elderly marathoners/bicyclists and 47 age/sex matched controls were studied in a longitudinal setting at baseline and after three years. HbA1c as a surrogate for (pre-diabetic states was quantified via HPLC, 25(OHD levels were measured by means of chemiluminescent assays. Physical performance was assessed by ergometry.When adjusted for seasonal variations, 25(OHD was significantly higher in athletes than in controls. 25(OHD levels inversely correlated with triglycerides in both groups, whereas only in controls an association between high BMI or low physical performance with hypovitaminosis D3 had been found. Likewise, the presence of hypovitaminosis D3 at baseline successfully predicted hyperglycemia at the follow up examinations within the control group (AUC = 0.85, 95% CI [0.74, 0.96], p < .001, statistically independent from BMI, but not in athletes.Our data suggest that mechanisms of HbA1c elevation might differ between athletes and controls. Thus, intense physical activity must be taken into account as a potential pre-analytic confounder when it is aimed to predict metabolic risk by vitamin D3 levels.

  10. Can Serum Albumin Level and Total Lymphocyte Count be Surrogates for Malnutrition to Predict Wound Complications After Total Knee Arthroplasty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morey, Vivek M; Song, Young Dong; Whang, Ji Sup; Kang, Yeon Gwi; Kim, Tae Kyun

    2016-06-01

    Although the serum albumin level and total lymphocyte count (TLC) have been reported as valid and reliable markers for defining malnutrition, their cutoff levels and predictive values for wound complications in patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty (TKA) remain questionable. A total of 3169 TKAs performed between April 2003 and December 2013 were retrospectively reviewed. We determined the prevalence of malnutrition on applying different definitions, with various cutoff values of serum albumin and TLC and analyzed the variations in outcome. The differences between groups with and without malnutrition in terms of functional outcome and complications were determined using Student's t test and analysis of variance. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify the independent risk factors. Among all the patients (N = 3169), the serum albumin level and TLC varied widely, with means of 4.1 g/dL and 2189 cells/mm(3), respectively. The prevalence of malnutrition (21%) as per the conventional definition (serum albumin level malnutrition was defined as serum albumin malnutrition for predicting wound complications after TKA. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. National survey of indoor radon levels in Croatia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radolic, V.; Vukovic, B.; Stanic, D.; Katic, M.; Faj, Z.; Lukacevic, I.; Planinic, J.; Suveljak, B.; Faj, D.; Lukic, M.

    2006-01-01

    National survey of indoor radon was performed by a random sampling of thousand (782 realized) dwellings in Croatia. Radon concentrations were measured for one year with LR-115 SSNT detectors and arithmetic and geometric means of 68 and 50 Bq/m 3 were obtained, respectively. The arithmetic means of radon concentrations on 20 counties were from 33 to 198 Bq/m 3 . The percentage of dwellings with radon concentrations above 200 and 400 Bq/m 3 was 5.4% and 1.8%, respectively. The average annual effective dose of the indoor radon was estimated as 2.2 mSv. (author)

  12. C-reactive protein level predicts mortality in COPD: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Leuzzi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The prognostic role of baseline C-reactive protein (CRP in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD is controversial. In order to clarify this issue, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the predictive effect of baseline CRP level in COPD patients. 15 eligible articles focusing on late mortality in COPD were included in our study. We performed a random-effects meta-analysis, and assessed heterogeneity and publication bias. We pooled hazard ratio (HR estimates and their 95% confidence intervals on mortality for the comparison between the study-specific highest category of CRP level versus the lowest category. In overall analysis, elevated baseline CRP levels were significantly associated with higher mortality (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.32–1.77, I2=68.7%, p<0.001. Similar results were observed across subgroups. However, higher mortality risk was reported in studies using a cut-off value of 3 mg·L−1 (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.12–2.30 and in those enrolling an Asiatic population (HR 3.51, 95% CI 1.69–7.31. Our analysis indicates that baseline high CRP level is significantly associated with higher late mortality in patients with COPD. Further prospective controlled studies are needed to confirm these data.

  13. Prediction of Radiation Esophagitis in Non–Small Cell Lung Cancer Using Clinical Factors, Dosimetric Parameters, and Pretreatment Cytokine Levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter G. Hawkins

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Radiation esophagitis (RE is a common adverse event associated with radiotherapy for non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC. While plasma cytokine levels have been correlated with other forms of radiation-induced toxicity, their association with RE has been less well studied. We analyzed data from 126 patients treated on 4 prospective clinical trials. Logistic regression models based on combinations of dosimetric factors [maximum dose to 2 cubic cm (D2cc and generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD], clinical variables, and pretreatment plasma levels of 30 cytokines were developed. Cross-validated estimates of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC and log likelihood were used to assess prediction accuracy. Dose-only models predicted grade 3 RE with AUC values of 0.750 (D2cc and 0.727 (gEUD. Combining clinical factors with D2cc increased the AUC to 0.779. Incorporating pretreatment cytokine measurements, modeled as direct associations with RE and as potential interactions with the dose-esophagitis association, produced AUC values of 0.758 and 0.773, respectively. D2cc and gEUD correlated with grade 3 RE with odds ratios (ORs of 1.094/Gy and 1.096/Gy, respectively. Female gender was associated with a higher risk of RE, with ORs of 1.09 and 1.112 in the D2cc and gEUD models, respectively. Older age was associated with decreased risk of RE, with ORs of 0.992/year and 0.991/year in the D2cc and gEUD models, respectively. Combining clinical with dosimetric factors but not pretreatment cytokine levels yielded improved prediction of grade 3 RE compared to prediction by dose alone. Such multifactorial modeling may prove useful in directing radiation treatment planning.

  14. Understanding multiple levels of norms about teen pregnancy and their relationships to teens’ sexual behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mollborn, Stefanie; Domingue, Benjamin W.; Boardman, Jason D.

    2014-01-01

    Researchers seeking to understand teen sexual behaviors often turn to age norms, but they are difficult to measure quantitatively. Previous work has usually inferred norms from behavioral patterns or measured group-level norms at the individual level, ignoring multiple reference groups. Capitalizing on the multilevel design of the Add Health survey, we measure teen pregnancy norms perceived by teenagers, as well as average norms at the school and peer network levels. School norms predict boys’ perceived norms, while peer network norms predict girls’ perceived norms. Peer network and individually perceived norms against teen pregnancy independently and negatively predict teens’ likelihood of sexual intercourse. Perceived norms against pregnancy predict increased likelihood of contraception among sexually experienced girls, but sexually experienced boys’ contraceptive behavior is more complicated: When both the boy and his peers or school have stronger norms against teen pregnancy he is more likely to contracept, and in the absence of school or peer norms against pregnancy, boys who are embarrassed are less likely to contracept. We conclude that: (1) patterns of behavior cannot adequately operationalize teen pregnancy norms, (2) norms are not simply linked to behaviors through individual perceptions, and (3) norms at different levels can operate independently of each other, interactively, or in opposition. This evidence creates space for conceptualizations of agency, conflict, and change that can lead to progress in understanding age norms and sexual behaviors. PMID:25104920

  15. Understanding multiple levels of norms about teen pregnancy and their relationships to teens' sexual behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mollborn, Stefanie; Domingue, Benjamin W; Boardman, Jason D

    2014-06-01

    Researchers seeking to understand teen sexual behaviors often turn to age norms, but they are difficult to measure quantitatively. Previous work has usually inferred norms from behavioral patterns or measured group-level norms at the individual level, ignoring multiple reference groups. Capitalizing on the multilevel design of the Add Health survey, we measure teen pregnancy norms perceived by teenagers, as well as average norms at the school and peer network levels. School norms predict boys' perceived norms, while peer network norms predict girls' perceived norms. Peer network and individually perceived norms against teen pregnancy independently and negatively predict teens' likelihood of sexual intercourse. Perceived norms against pregnancy predict increased likelihood of contraception among sexually experienced girls, but sexually experienced boys' contraceptive behavior is more complicated: When both the boy and his peers or school have stronger norms against teen pregnancy he is more likely to contracept, and in the absence of school or peer norms against pregnancy, boys who are embarrassed are less likely to contracept. We conclude that: (1) patterns of behavior cannot adequately operationalize teen pregnancy norms, (2) norms are not simply linked to behaviors through individual perceptions, and (3) norms at different levels can operate independently of each other, interactively, or in opposition. This evidence creates space for conceptualizations of agency, conflict, and change that can lead to progress in understanding age norms and sexual behaviors.

  16. Predicting Impacts of tropical cyclones and sea-Level rise on beach mouse habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qin; Wang, Hongqing; Wang, Lixia; Tawes, Robert; Rollman, Drew

    2014-01-01

    Alabama beach mouse (ABM) (Peromyscus polionotus ammobates) is an important component of the coastal dune ecosystem along the Gulf of Mexico. Due to habitat loss and degradation, ABM is federally listed as an endangered species. In this study, we examined the impacts of storm surge and wind waves, which are induced by hurricanes and sea-level rise (SLR), on the ABM habitat on Fort Morgan Peninsula, Alabama, using advanced storm surge and wind wave models and spatial analysis tools in geographic information systems (GIS). Statistical analyses of the long-term historical data enabled us to predict the extreme values of winds, wind waves, and water levels in the study area at different return periods. We developed a series of nested domains for both wave and surge modeling and validated the models using field observations of surge hydrographs and high watermarks of Hurricane Ivan (2004). We then developed wave atlases and flood maps corresponding to the extreme wind, surge and waves without SLR and with a 0.5 m of SLR by coupling the wave and surge prediction models. The flood maps were then merged with a map of ABM habitat to determine the extent and location of habitat impacted by the 100-year storm with and without SLR. Simulation results indicate that more than 82% of ABM habitat would be inundated in such an extreme storm event, especially under SLR, making ABM populations more vulnerable to future storm damage. These results have aided biologists, community planners, and other stakeholders in the identification, restoration and protection of key beach mouse habitat in Alabama. Methods outlined in this paper could also be used to assist in the conservation and recovery of imperiled coastal species elsewhere.

  17. [Self-rated health and educational level in Spain: trends by autonomous communities and gender (2001-2012)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar-Palacio, Isabel; Carrera-Lasfuentes, Patricia; Rabanaque, M José

    2015-01-01

    To identify the trend in self-rated health in Spain by autonomous communities (AC) in the period 2001-2012, as well as differences by gender and age, and the influence of educational level. A cross sectional study was carried out using data from the National Health Surveys from 2001 to 2011-12 and the 2009 European Survey. A descriptive analysis was conducted that included gender, age, educational level, and the AC of residence. Logistic regression analyses were developed to explore the temporal trend and the association between educational level and self-rated health. The predictive capacity of the model was calculated using the C statistic. The prevalence of low self-rated health was higher in women with low educational level. Self-rated health improved in women with high educational level (2001:18.6% vs. 2012:14.6%). The highest prevalence of low self-rated health was observed in Andalusia, the Canary Islands, Galicia and Murcia, with differences by gender. Low educational level was associated with low self-rated health in most AC, with good predictive capacity. In all AC except Asturias, low self-rated health was more frequent in women than in men. In Spain, the prevalence of self-rated health showed no variations in the period analyzed and improved in the Balearic Islands, Catalonia, and Madrid. The prevalence of self-rated health in Spain differed by AC. Although health was unchanged during the period considered, inequalities were found in its temporal trend by educational level and gender, which could lead to an increase in health inequalities in women according educational level. Copyright © 2014 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  18. Predictive value of repeated measurements of luteal progesterone and estradiol levels in patients with intrauterine insemination and controlled ovarian stimulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakas, Panagiotis; Simopoulou, Maria; Giner, Maria; Drakakis, Petros; Panagopoulos, Perikles; Vlahos, Nikolaos

    2017-10-01

    The objective of this study is to assess if the difference of repeated measurements of estradiol and progesterone during luteal phase predict the outcome of intrauterine insemination. Prospective study. Reproductive clinic. 126 patients with infertility. Patients underwent controlled ovarian stimulation with recombinant FSH (50-150 IU/d). The day of IUI patients were given p.o natural micronized progesterone in a dose of 100 mg/tds. The area under the receiver characteristic operating curve (ROC curve) in predicting clinical pregnancy for % change of estradiol level on days 6 and 10 was 0.892 with 95% CI: 0.82-0.94. A cutoff value of change > -29.5% had a sensitivity of 85.7 with a specificity of 90.2. The corresponding ROC curve for % change of progesterone level was 0.839 with 95% CI: 0.76-0.90. A cutoff value of change > -33% had a sensitivity of 85 with a specificity of 75. The % change of estradiol and progesterone between days 6 and 10 has a predictive ability of pregnancy after IUI with COS of 89.2% and 83.4%, respectively. The addition of % of progesterone to % change of estradiol does not improve the predictive ability of % estradiol and should not be used.

  19. Chapter 6. Dwarf mistletoe surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.A. Muir; B. Moody

    2002-01-01

    Dwarf mistletoe surveys are conducted for a variety of vegetation management objectives. Various survey and sampling techniques are used either at a broad, landscape scale in forest planning or program review, or at an individual, stand, site level for specific project implementation. Standard and special surveys provide data to map mistletoe distributions and quantify...

  20. Applications of machine learning in cancer prediction and prognosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz, Joseph A; Wishart, David S

    2007-02-11

    Machine learning is a branch of artificial intelligence that employs a variety of statistical, probabilistic and optimization techniques that allows computers to "learn" from past examples and to detect hard-to-discern patterns from large, noisy or complex data sets. This capability is particularly well-suited to medical applications, especially those that depend on complex proteomic and genomic measurements. As a result, machine learning is frequently used in cancer diagnosis and detection. More recently machine learning has been applied to cancer prognosis and prediction. This latter approach is particularly interesting as it is part of a growing trend towards personalized, predictive medicine. In assembling this review we conducted a broad survey of the different types of machine learning methods being used, the types of data being integrated and the performance of these methods in cancer prediction and prognosis. A number of trends are noted, including a growing dependence on protein biomarkers and microarray data, a strong bias towards applications in prostate and breast cancer, and a heavy reliance on "older" technologies such artificial neural networks (ANNs) instead of more recently developed or more easily interpretable machine learning methods. A number of published studies also appear to lack an appropriate level of validation or testing. Among the better designed and validated studies it is clear that machine learning methods can be used to substantially (15-25%) improve the accuracy of predicting cancer susceptibility, recurrence and mortality. At a more fundamental level, it is also evident that machine learning is also helping to improve our basic understanding of cancer development and progression.

  1. Undernutrition among adults in India: the significance of individual-level and contextual factors impacting on the likelihood of underweight across sub-populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqui, Md Zakaria; Donato, Ronald

    2017-01-01

    To investigate the extent to which individual-level as well as macro-level contextual factors influence the likelihood of underweight across adult sub-populations in India. Population-based cross-sectional survey included in India's National Health Family Survey conducted in 2005-06. We disaggregated into eight sub-populations. Multistage nationally representative household survey covering 99 % of India's population. The survey covered 124 385 females aged 15-49 years and 74 369 males aged 15-54 years. A social gradient in underweight exists in India. Even after allowing for wealth status, differences in the predicted probability of underweight persisted based upon rurality, age/maturity and gender. We found individual-level education lowered the likelihood of underweight for males, but no statistical association for females. Paradoxically, rural young (15-24 years) females from more educated villages had a higher likelihood of underweight relative to those in less educated villages; but for rural mature (>24 years) females the opposite was the case. Christians had a significantly lower likelihood of underweight relative to other socio-religious groups (OR=0·53-0·80). Higher state-level inequality increased the likelihood of underweight across most population groups, while neighbourhood inequality exhibited a similar relationship for the rural young population subgroups only. Individual states/neighbourhoods accounted for 5-9 % of the variation in the prediction of underweight. We found that rural young females represent a particularly highly vulnerable sub-population. Economic growth alone is unlikely to reduce the burden of malnutrition in India; accordingly, policy makers need to address the broader social determinants that contribute to higher underweight prevalence in specific demographic subgroups.

  2. "Bare Branches" and the Marriage Market in Rural China: Preliminary Evidence from a village-level survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xiaoyi; Liu, Lige; Li, Yan; Feldman, Marcus W; Li, Shuzhuo

    Using data from a village survey in rural China, this study explores the relationships between current prevalence of involuntary bachelorhood and its causes and social consequences at the village level. We find that bachelors, inter-county marriage and marriage fraud exist in all regions, and are expected to become more frequent with the increasing surplus of males born after 1980 entering the marriage market. The marriage squeeze and social problems related to the bachelors are more serious in less-developed western villages, and heterogeneity within central villages is significant. Economic and socio-demographic factors are shown to be the major causes of the prevalence of bachelors at the village level in contemporary rural China. Our findings confirm the negative consequences of the marriage squeeze, and effective policies are urgently needed to respond to and prevent more negative consequences of gender imbalance in the foreseeable future.

  3. Cross-national and multilevel correlates of partner violence: an analysis of data from population-based surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heise, Lori L; Kotsadam, Andreas

    2015-06-01

    On average, intimate partner violence affects nearly one in three women worldwide within their lifetime. But the distribution of partner violence is highly uneven, with a prevalence of less than 4% in the past 12 months in many high-income countries compared with at least 40% in some low-income settings. Little is known about the factors that drive the geographical distribution of partner violence or how macro-level factors might combine with individual-level factors to affect individual women's risk of intimate partner violence. We aimed to assess the role that women's status and other gender-related factors might have in defining levels of partner violence among settings. We compiled data for the 12 month prevalence of partner violence from 66 surveys (88 survey years) from 44 countries, representing 481 205 women between Jan 1, 2000, and Apr 17, 2013. Only surveys with comparable questions and state-of-the-art methods to ensure safety and encourage violence disclosure were used. With linear and quantile regression, we examined associations between macro-level measures of socioeconomic development, women's status, gender inequality, and gender-related norms and the prevalence of current partner violence at a population level. Multilevel modelling and tests for interaction were used to explore whether and how macro-level factors affect individual-level risk. The outcome for this analysis was the population prevalence of current partner violence, defined as the percentage of ever-partnered women (excluding widows without a current partner), aged from 15 years to 49 years who were victims of at least one act of physical or sexual violence within the past 12 months. Gender-related factors at the national and subnational level help to predict the population prevalence of physical and sexual partner violence within the past 12 months. Especially predictive of the geographical distribution of partner violence are norms related to male authority over female behaviour

  4. Effects of ocean acidification and sea-level rise on coral reefs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, K.K.; Moyer, R.P.

    2010-01-01

    U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are developing comprehensive records of historical and modern coral reef growth and calcification rates relative to changing seawater chemistry resulting from increasing atmospheric CO2 from the pre-industrial period to the present. These records will provide the scientific foundation for predicting future impacts of ocean acidification and sea-level rise on coral reef growth. Changes in coral growth rates in response to past changes in seawater pH are being examined by using cores from coral colonies.

  5. The Global Survey Method Applied to Ground-level Cosmic Ray Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belov, A.; Eroshenko, E.; Yanke, V.; Oleneva, V.; Abunin, A.; Abunina, M.; Papaioannou, A.; Mavromichalaki, H.

    2018-04-01

    The global survey method (GSM) technique unites simultaneous ground-level observations of cosmic rays in different locations and allows us to obtain the main characteristics of cosmic-ray variations outside of the atmosphere and magnetosphere of Earth. This technique has been developed and applied in numerous studies over many years by the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radiowave Propagation (IZMIRAN). We here describe the IZMIRAN version of the GSM in detail. With this technique, the hourly data of the world-wide neutron-monitor network from July 1957 until December 2016 were processed, and further processing is enabled upon the receipt of new data. The result is a database of homogeneous and continuous hourly characteristics of the density variations (an isotropic part of the intensity) and the 3D vector of the cosmic-ray anisotropy. It includes all of the effects that could be identified in galactic cosmic-ray variations that were caused by large-scale disturbances of the interplanetary medium in more than 50 years. These results in turn became the basis for a database on Forbush effects and interplanetary disturbances. This database allows correlating various space-environment parameters (the characteristics of the Sun, the solar wind, et cetera) with cosmic-ray parameters and studying their interrelations. We also present features of the coupling coefficients for different neutron monitors that enable us to make a connection from ground-level measurements to primary cosmic-ray variations outside the atmosphere and the magnetosphere. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the current version of the GSM as well as further possible developments and improvements. The method developed allows us to minimize the problems of the neutron-monitor network, which are typical for experimental physics, and to considerably enhance its advantages.

  6. The predictive validity of safety climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Stephen E

    2007-01-01

    Safety professionals have increasingly turned their attention to social science for insight into the causation of industrial accidents. One social construct, safety climate, has been examined by several researchers [Cooper, M. D., & Phillips, R. A. (2004). Exploratory analysis of the safety climate and safety behavior relationship. Journal of Safety Research, 35(5), 497-512; Gillen, M., Baltz, D., Gassel, M., Kirsch, L., & Vacarro, D. (2002). Perceived safety climate, job Demands, and coworker support among union and nonunion injured construction workers. Journal of Safety Research, 33(1), 33-51; Neal, A., & Griffin, M. A. (2002). Safety climate and safety behaviour. Australian Journal of Management, 27, 66-76; Zohar, D. (2000). A group-level model of safety climate: Testing the effect of group climate on microaccidents in manufacturing jobs. Journal of Applied Psychology, 85(4), 587-596; Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628] who have documented its importance as a factor explaining the variation of safety-related outcomes (e.g., behavior, accidents). Researchers have developed instruments for measuring safety climate and have established some degree of psychometric reliability and validity. The problem, however, is that predictive validity has not been firmly established, which reduces the credibility of safety climate as a meaningful social construct. The research described in this article addresses this problem and provides additional support for safety climate as a viable construct and as a predictive indicator of safety-related outcomes. This study used 292 employees at three locations of a heavy manufacturing organization to complete the 16 item Zohar Safety Climate Questionnaire (ZSCQ) [Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level

  7. Predicting the potential for risky behavior among those "too young" to drink as the result of appealing advertising.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, E W; Knaus, C

    2000-01-01

    A survey of 273 children in Washington state used a predrinking behavior index as a behavioral outcome to assess media effects on precursors to drinking among children for whom alcohol consumption is not yet occurring. It also examined age trends in relevant beliefs and behaviors. Perceptions of advertising desirability, the extent to which it seemed appealing, increased steadily from third to ninth grade, whereas identification with portrayals, the degree to which individuals wanted to emulate portrayals, leveled off after sixth grade. Expectancies, positive social benefits perceived to be associated with drinking alcohol, also increased with age, particularly between sixth and ninth grade. When demographics and grade level were controlled, desirability predicted identification, and both predicted expectancies, which is consistent with media decision-making theory. Expectancies correlated with alcohol predrinking behavior, and expectancies predicted risky behavior, with demographics and grade level controlled. Predrinking behavior and reported risky behavior were correlated. The results provide cross-sectional support for the view that beliefs and desires developing by third grade prime children for future decisions regarding substance use.

  8. Hormone levels predict individual differences in reproductive success in a passerine bird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Jenny Q; Sharp, Peter J; Dawson, Alistair; Quetting, Michael; Hau, Michaela

    2011-08-22

    Hormones mediate major physiological and behavioural components of the reproductive phenotype of individuals. To understand basic evolutionary processes in the hormonal regulation of reproductive traits, we need to know whether, and during which reproductive phases, individual variation in hormone concentrations relates to fitness in natural populations. We related circulating concentrations of prolactin and corticosterone to parental behaviour and reproductive success during both the pre-breeding and the chick-rearing stages in both individuals of pairs of free-living house sparrows, Passer domesticus. Prolactin and baseline corticosterone concentrations in pre-breeding females, and prolactin concentrations in pre-breeding males, predicted total number of fledglings. When the strong effect of lay date on total fledgling number was corrected for, only pre-breeding baseline corticosterone, but not prolactin, was negatively correlated with the reproductive success of females. During the breeding season, nestling provisioning rates of both sexes were negatively correlated with stress-induced corticosterone levels. Lastly, individuals of both sexes with low baseline corticosterone before and high baseline corticosterone during breeding raised the most offspring, suggesting that either the plasticity of this trait contributes to reproductive success or that high parental effort leads to increased hormone concentrations. Thus hormone concentrations both before and during breeding, as well as their seasonal dynamics, predict reproductive success, suggesting that individual variation in absolute concentrations and in plasticity is functionally significant, and, if heritable, may be a target of selection.

  9. Impact of the Medical Faculty on Study Success in Freiburg: Results from Graduate Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biller, Silke; Boeker, Martin; Fabry, Götz; Giesler, Marianne

    2015-01-01

    Aim: Using the data from graduate surveys, this study aims to analyze which factors related to teaching and learning at the Freiburg Faculty of Medicine can influence study success. Background: Study success and the factors influencing it have long been the subject of investigation, with study success being measured in terms of easily quantifiable indicators (final grades, student satisfaction, etc.). In recent years, it has also frequently been assessed in terms of graduate competency levels. Graduate surveys are considered suitable instruments for measuring these dimensions of study success. Method: Data from three Freiburg graduate surveys conducted one and a half years after graduation were drawn upon for the analysis. Study success was operationalized using four indicators: results on the written section of the M2 exam, self-assessment of medical expertise and scientific expertise, and student satisfaction. Using multiple regression analyses, the predictive power was calculated for selected variables, also measured by the graduate surveys, for the different study success indicators. Results: It was possible to identify models that contribute slightly or moderately to the prediction of study success. The score earned on the university entrance qualification demonstrated itself to be the strongest predictor for forecasting the M2 written exam: R2 is between 0.08 and 0.22 for the three surveys. Different variables specific to degree program structure and teaching are helpful for predicting medical expertise (R2=0.04-0.32) and student satisfaction (R2=0.12-0.35). The two variables, structure and curricular sequencing of the degree program and combination of theory and practice, show themselves to be significant, sample-invariant predictors (β-weightStructure=0.21-0.58, β-weightCombination=0.27-0.56). For scientific expertise, no sample-independent predictors could be determined. Conclusion: Factors describing teaching hardly provide any assistance when

  10. Improving survey response rates from parents in school-based research using a multi-level approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilpzand, Elizabeth J; Sciberras, Emma; Efron, Daryl; Anderson, Vicki; Nicholson, Jan M

    2015-01-01

    While schools can provide a comprehensive sampling frame for community-based studies of children and their families, recruitment is challenging. Multi-level approaches which engage multiple school stakeholders have been recommended but few studies have documented their effects. This paper compares the impact of a standard versus enhanced engagement approach on multiple indicators of recruitment: parent response rates, response times, reminders required and sample characteristics. Parents and teachers were distributed a brief screening questionnaire as a first step for recruitment to a longitudinal study, with two cohorts recruited in consecutive years (cohort 1 2011, cohort 2 2012). For cohort 2, additional engagement strategies included the use of pre-notification postcards, improved study materials, and recruitment progress graphs provided to school staff. Chi-square and t-tests were used to examine cohort differences. Compared to cohort 1, a higher proportion of cohort 2 parents responded to the survey (76% versus 69%; p value of investing in a relatively simple multi-level strategy to maximise parent response rates, and potentially reduce recruitment time and costs.

  11. Predicting the retreat and migration of tidal forests along the northern Gulf of Mexico under sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, T.W.; Krauss, K.W.; Conner, W.H.; From, A.S.

    2010-01-01

    Tidal freshwater forests in coastal regions of the southeastern United States are undergoing dieback and retreat from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. In many areas, tidal saltwater forests (mangroves) contrastingly are expanding landward in subtropical coastal reaches succeeding freshwater marsh and forest zones. Hydrological characteristics of these low-relief coastal forests in intertidal settings are dictated by the influence of tidal and freshwater forcing. In this paper, we describe the application of the Sea Level Over Proportional Elevation (SLOPE) model to predict coastal forest retreat and migration from projected sea-level rise based on a proxy relationship of saltmarsh/mangrove area and tidal range. The SLOPE model assumes that the sum area of saltmarsh/mangrove habitat along any given coastal reach is determined by the slope of the landform and vertical tide forcing. Model results indicated that saltmarsh and mangrove migration from sea-level rise will vary by county and watershed but greater in western Gulf States than in the eastern Gulf States where millions of hectares of coastal forest will be displaced over the next century with a near meter rise in relative sea level alone. Substantial losses of coastal forests will also occur in the eastern Gulf but mangrove forests in subtropical zones of Florida are expected to replace retreating freshwater forest and affect regional biodiversity. Accelerated global eustacy from climate change will compound the degree of predicted retreat and migration of coastal forests with expected implications for ecosystem management of State and Federal lands in the absence of adaptive coastal management.

  12. Survey of degradation modes of candidate materials for high-level radioactive-waste disposal containers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bullen, D.B.; Gdowski, G.E.; Weiss, H.

    1988-06-01

    Three copper-based alloys, CDA 102 (oxygen-free copper), CDA 613 (Cu-7Al), and CDA 715 (Cu-30Ni), are being considered along with three austenitic candidates as possible materials for fabrication of containers for disposal of high-level radioactive waste. The waste will include spent fuel assemblies from reactors as well as high-level reprocessing wastes in borosilicate glass and will be sent to the prospective repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, for disposal. The containers must maintain mechanical integrity for 50 yr after emplacement to allow for retrieval of waste during the preclosure phase of repository operation. Containment is required to be substantially complete for up to 300 to 1000 yr. During the early period, the containers will be exposed to high temperatures and high gamma radiation fields from the decay of high-level waste. The final closure joint will be critical to the integrity of the containers. This volume surveys the available data on the metallurgy of the copper-based candidate alloys and the welding techniques employed to join these materials. The focus of this volume is on the methods applicable to remote-handling procedures in a hot-cell environment with limited possibility of postweld heat treatment. The three copper-based candidates are ranked on the basis of the various closure techniques. On the basis of considerations regarding welding, the following ranking is proposed for the copper-based alloys: CDA 715 (best) > CDA 102 > CDA 613 (worst). 49 refs., 15 figs., 1 tab

  13. The prediction of type 1 diabetes by multiple autoantibody levels and their incorporation into an autoantibody risk score in relatives of type 1 diabetic patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sosenko, Jay M; Skyler, Jay S; Palmer, Jerry P; Krischer, Jeffrey P; Yu, Liping; Mahon, Jeffrey; Beam, Craig A; Boulware, David C; Rafkin, Lisa; Schatz, Desmond; Eisenbarth, George

    2013-09-01

    We assessed whether a risk score that incorporates levels of multiple islet autoantibodies could enhance the prediction of type 1 diabetes (T1D). TrialNet Natural History Study participants (n = 784) were tested for three autoantibodies (GADA, IA-2A, and mIAA) at their initial screening. Samples from those positive for at least one autoantibody were subsequently tested for ICA and ZnT8A. An autoantibody risk score (ABRS) was developed from a proportional hazards model that combined autoantibody levels from each autoantibody along with their designations of positivity and negativity. The ABRS was strongly predictive of T1D (hazard ratio [with 95% CI] 2.72 [2.23-3.31], P < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve areas (with 95% CI) for the ABRS revealed good predictability (0.84 [0.78-0.90] at 2 years, 0.81 [0.74-0.89] at 3 years, P < 0.001 for both). The composite of levels from the five autoantibodies was predictive of T1D before and after an adjustment for the positivity or negativity of autoantibodies (P < 0.001). The findings were almost identical when ICA was excluded from the risk score model. The combination of the ABRS and the previously validated Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 Risk Score (DPTRS) predicted T1D more accurately (0.93 [0.88-0.98] at 2 years, 0.91 [0.83-0.99] at 3 years) than either the DPTRS or the ABRS alone (P ≤ 0.01 for all comparisons). These findings show the importance of considering autoantibody levels in assessing the risk of T1D. Moreover, levels of multiple autoantibodies can be incorporated into an ABRS that accurately predicts T1D.

  14. Semi-customizing patient surveys

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riiskjær, Erik; Ammentorp, Jette; Nielsen, Jørn Flohr

    2011-01-01

    Objective. The study investigated the needs and consequences of semi-customizing patient satisfaction surveys to low organizational levels and explored whether patient satisfaction was correlated with local organizational conditions. Design. From 1999 to 2006, the County of Aarhus carried out 398....... Establishing a link between patient satisfaction and organizational variables broadens the quality development focus to include more than simply analysis of specific questions. Semi-customizing patient surveys are recommended....... surveys during four rounds in eight hospitals. To explain differences between the wards, data on the 40 wards with the best and the 40 wards with the worst evaluations (identified by patient surveys) were compared with the data from job satisfaction surveys and management information systems. Setting...

  15. A model to predict the level of artificial radionuclides in environmental materials in the Severn Estuary and the Bristol Channel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McColl, N.P.

    1988-01-01

    The NRPB SEVERN compartment model, of the Bristol Channel and Severn Estuary, has been developed for used in predicting environmental concentrations of artificial radionuclides present in the estuary. A comparison between predicted and measured values of salinity and environmental 137 Cs concentrations has demonstrated the overall validity of the model. SEVERN has been used to assess the radiological impact of radionuclides present in the estuary which result from low-level routine discharges from the nuclear power industry. (author)

  16. 75 FR 63854 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-18

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Geological Survey National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council...: Pursuant to Public Law 96-472, the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) will hold a 2... proposed earthquake predictions, on the completeness and scientific validity of the available data related...

  17. Soluble CD30 levels in recipients undergoing heart transplantation do not predict post-transplant outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ypsilantis, Efthymios; Key, Timothy; Bradley, J Andrew; Morgan, C Helen; Tsui, Stephen; Parameshwar, Jayan; Taylor, Craig J

    2009-11-01

    The pre-transplant serum level of soluble CD30 (sCD30), a proteolytic derivative of the lymphocyte surface receptor CD30, has been suggested as a biomarker for immunologic risk after organ transplantation. Pre-transplant serum sCD30 levels were determined in 200 consecutive adult heart transplant recipients undertaken at a single center. Transplant outcome (acute rejection in the first 12 months and patient survival up to 5 years post-transplant) was determined. Patients treated with a left ventricular assist device (LVAD) prior to transplantation (n = 28) had higher levels of sCD30 (median 64 U/ml, range 12 to 112 U/ml) than those (n = 172) with no LVAD (median 36 U/ml, range 1 to 158 U/ml, p sCD30 levels were "low" (lower quartile, 58 U/ml, n = 50). Neither acute rejection nor recipient survival differed according to sCD30 level, with values (mean +/- SEM) of 0.30 +/- 0.04, 0.23 +/- 0.03 and 0.30 +/- 0.05 acute rejection episodes per 100 days in the low, intermediate and high groups, respectively, with recipient survival rates at 1 year of 77.7%, 84.9% and 86% and at 5 years of 73.6%, 67.9% and 75.8%, respectively. Pre-transplant serum sCD30 level does not predict acute allograft rejection or recipient survival after heart transplantation, although sCD30 levels are increased by LVAD, possibly as a result of biomaterial-host immune interaction.

  18. Practices for predicting and preventing preterm birth in Ireland: a national survey.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Smith, V

    2011-03-01

    Preterm birth can result in adverse outcomes for the neonate and\\/or his\\/her family. The accurate prediction and prevention of preterm birth is paramount. This study describes and critically analyses practices for predicting and preventing preterm birth in Ireland.

  19. Prediction of burnout. Chapter 14

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, D.H.

    1977-01-01

    A broad survey is made of the effect on burnout heat flux of various system parameters to give the reader a better initial idea of the significance of changes in individual parameters. A detailed survey is then made of various correlation equations for predicting burnout for steam -water in uniformly heated tubes, annuli, rectangular channels and rod clusters, giving details of recommended equations. Finally comments are made on the influence of heat-flux profile and swirl flow on burnout, and on the definition of dryout margin. (author)

  20. Post-transplant increased levels of serum sCD30 is a marker for prediction of kidney allograft loss in a 5-year prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, Julio C; Pavlov, Igor Y; Shihab, Fuad S

    2009-12-01

    Levels of sCD30 represent a biomarker for early outcome in kidney transplantation. The purpose of this study was to determine the role of sCD30 levels for prediction of graft loss in the late post-transplant period. Sera were collected immediately pre-transplant and yearly thereafter for up to 5-year post-transplant in 37 primary renal transplant recipients. Levels of serum sCD30 were tested using a fluorescent microsphere assay. Levels of sCD30 significantly decreased after transplantation and remained normal in 34 patients without graft loss up to 5-year post-transplant. Elevated levels of serum sCD30 preceded the increase of serum creatinine in patients with subsequent graft loss. Elevated levels of serum sCD30 post-transplant might be a marker for predicting subsequent graft loss in the post-transplant period.

  1. Late-Life Drinking Problems: The Predictive Roles of Drinking Level vs. Drinking Pattern.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holahan, Charles J; Brennan, Penny L; Schutte, Kathleen K; Holahan, Carole K; Hixon, J Gregory; Moos, Rudolf H

    2017-05-01

    Research on late-middle-aged and older adults has focused primarily on average level of alcohol consumption, overlooking variability in underlying drinking patterns. The purpose of the present study was to examine the independent contributions of an episodic heavy pattern of drinking versus a high average level of drinking as prospective predictors of drinking problems. The sample comprised 1,107 adults ages 55-65 years at baseline. Alcohol consumption was assessed at baseline, and drinking problems were indexed across 20 years. We used prospective negative binomial regression analyses controlling for baseline drinking problems, as well as for demographic and health factors, to predict the number of drinking problems at each of four follow-up waves (1, 4, 10, and 20 years). Across waves where the effects were significant, a high average level of drinking (coefficients of 1.56, 95% CI [1.24, 1.95]; 1.48, 95% CI [1.11, 1.98]; and 1.85, 95% CI [1.23, 2.79] at 1, 10, and 20 years) and an episodic heavy pattern of drinking (coefficients of 1.61, 95% CI [1.30, 1.99]; 1.61, 95% CI [1.28, 2.03]; and 1.43, 95% CI [1.08, 1.90] at 1, 4, and 10 years) each independently increased the number of drinking problems by more than 50%. Information based only on average consumption underestimates the risk of drinking problems among older adults. Both a high average level of drinking and an episodic heavy pattern of drinking pose prospective risks of later drinking problems among older adults.

  2. A Study of KHNP Nuclear Power Plant Technology Level Evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Seung Han; Lee, Sung Jin; Kim, Yo Han

    2016-01-01

    KHNP's 2030 mid and long term plan goal in technology field is securing global No. 1 NPP technology level. Quantifying technology level for this purpose, technology level at present should be surveyed. Technology level of South Korea has been surveyed by KISTEP (Korea Institute of S and T Evaluation and Planning) every two year but the technology level of KHNP has not been surveyed by any organization including KHNP itself. Also the size of technology surveyed by KISTEP was too broad to quantifying technology level of KHNP. In this paper, technology level of KHNP and South Korea are presented. In this study, NPP related technologies were divided into Level I and Level II technologies and conducted a survey for each Level II technologies using Delphi questionnaire survey that is widely used in technology level evaluation. The results of technology level and gap will be used from strategic point of view and also as a reference data for technology improvement planning

  3. A Study of KHNP Nuclear Power Plant Technology Level Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Seung Han; Lee, Sung Jin; Kim, Yo Han [KHNP, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    KHNP's 2030 mid and long term plan goal in technology field is securing global No. 1 NPP technology level. Quantifying technology level for this purpose, technology level at present should be surveyed. Technology level of South Korea has been surveyed by KISTEP (Korea Institute of S and T Evaluation and Planning) every two year but the technology level of KHNP has not been surveyed by any organization including KHNP itself. Also the size of technology surveyed by KISTEP was too broad to quantifying technology level of KHNP. In this paper, technology level of KHNP and South Korea are presented. In this study, NPP related technologies were divided into Level I and Level II technologies and conducted a survey for each Level II technologies using Delphi questionnaire survey that is widely used in technology level evaluation. The results of technology level and gap will be used from strategic point of view and also as a reference data for technology improvement planning.

  4. Prediction of radionuclide inventory for the low-and intermediated-level radioactive waste disposal facility the radioactive waste classification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Kang Il; Jeong, Noh Gyeom; Moon, Young Pyo; Jeong, Mi Seon; Park, Jin Beak

    2016-01-01

    To meet nuclear regulatory requirements, more than 95% individual radionuclides in the low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste inventory have to be identified. In this study, the radionuclide inventory has been estimated by taking the long-term radioactive waste generation, the development plan of disposal facility, and the new radioactive waste classification into account. The state of radioactive waste cumulated from 2014 was analyzed for various radioactive sources and future prospects for predicting the long-term radioactive waste generation. The predicted radionuclide inventory results are expected to contribute to secure the development of waste disposal facility and to deploy the safety case for its long-term safety assessment

  5. History of surface displacements at the Yellowstone Caldera, Wyoming, from leveling surveys and InSAR observations, 1923-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dzurisin, Daniel; Wicks, Charles W.; Poland, Michael P.

    2012-01-01

    Modern geodetic studies of the Yellowstone caldera, Wyoming, and its extraordinary tectonic, magmatic, and hydrothermal systems date from an initial leveling survey done throughout Yellowstone National Park in 1923 by the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey. A repeat park-wide survey by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the University of Utah during 1975-77 revealed that the central part of the caldera floor had risen more than 700 mm since 1923, at an average rate of 14±1 mm/yr. From 1983 to 2007, the USGS conducted 15 smaller surveys of a single level line that crosses the northeast part of the caldera, including the area where the greatest uplift had occurred from 1923 to 1975-77. The 1983 and 1984 surveys showed that uplift had continued at an average rate of 22±1 mm/yr since 1975-77, but no additional uplift occurred during 1984-85 (-2±5 mm/yr), and during 1985-95 the area subsided at an average rate of 19±1 mm/yr. The change from uplift to subsidence was accompanied by an earthquake swarm, the largest ever recorded in the Yellowstone area (as of March 2012), starting in October 1985 and located near the northwest rim of the caldera. Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images showed that the area of greatest subsidence migrated from the northeast part of the caldera (including the Sour Creek resurgent dome) during 1992-93 to the southwest part (including the Mallard Lake resurgent dome) during 1993-95. Thereafter, uplift resumed in the northeast part of the caldera during 1995-96, while subsidence continued in the southwest part. The onset of uplift migrated southwestward, and by mid-1997, uplift was occurring throughout the entire caldera (essentially rim to rim, including both domes). Consistent with these InSAR observations, leveling surveys indicated 24±3 mm of uplift in the northeast part of the caldera during 1995-98. The beginning of uplift was coincident with or followed shortly after an earthquake swarm near the north caldera rim

  6. Formal education level versus self-rated literacy as predictors of cognitive aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavé, Gitit; Shrira, Amit; Palgi, Yuval; Spalter, Tal; Ben-Ezra, Menachem; Shmotkin, Dov

    2012-11-01

    To compare the prediction of cognitive functioning by formal education and self-rated literacy and the differences in prediction across younger and older cohorts. Data on 28,535 respondents were drawn from a cross-sectional representative sample of community-dwelling older individuals (≥50), participating in the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe. Education level was classified according to the International Standard Classification of Education 1997 (ISCED-1997) self-rated literacy was determined by having respondents rate their reading and writing on 1-5 scales. Cognitive functioning was measured by verbal recall, word fluency, and arithmetic ability. Structural equation modeling demonstrated that self-rated literacy was more strongly associated with cognitive functioning than was education level, with or without additional exogenous variables (age, sex, household income, medical conditions, activities of daily living, reading eyesight, and country). The association between education level and cognitive functioning was weaker in older than in younger age groups, whereas the association between self-rated literacy and cognitive functioning showed the opposite trend. Self-rated literacy was found to be a better predictor of late-life cognitive functioning than was the level of formal education. The results have implications for studies of age-related differences in which education level is taken into account.

  7. Survey of degradation modes of candidate materials for high-level radioactive-waste disposal containers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strum, M.J.; Weiss, H.; Farmer, J.C. (Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (USA)); Bullen, D.B. (Science and Engineering Associates, Inc., Pleasanton, CA (USA))

    1988-06-01

    This volume surveys the effects of welding on the degradation modes of three austenitic alloys: Types 304L and 316L stainless steels and Alloy 825. These materials are candidates for the fabrication of containers for the long-term storage of high-level nuclear waste. The metallurgical characteristics of fusion welds are reviewed here and related to potential degradation modes of the containers. Three specific areas are discussed in depth: (1) decreased resistance to corrosion in the forms of preferential corrosion, sensitization, and susceptibility to stress corrosion cracking, (2) hot cracking in the heat-affected zone and the weld zone, and (3) formation of intermetallic phases. The austenitic alloys are ranked as follows in terms of overall weldability: Alloy 825 (best) > Type 316L stainless steel > Type 304L stainless steel (worst). 108 refs., 31 figs., 7 tabs.

  8. Survey of degradation modes of candidate materials for high-level radioactive-waste disposal containers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strum, M.J.; Weiss, H.; Farmer, J.C.; Bullen, D.B.

    1988-06-01

    This volume surveys the effects of welding on the degradation modes of three austenitic alloys: Types 304L and 316L stainless steels and Alloy 825. These materials are candidates for the fabrication of containers for the long-term storage of high-level nuclear waste. The metallurgical characteristics of fusion welds are reviewed here and related to potential degradation modes of the containers. Three specific areas are discussed in depth: (1) decreased resistance to corrosion in the forms of preferential corrosion, sensitization, and susceptibility to stress corrosion cracking, (2) hot cracking in the heat-affected zone and the weld zone, and (3) formation of intermetallic phases. The austenitic alloys are ranked as follows in terms of overall weldability: Alloy 825 (best) > Type 316L stainless steel > Type 304L stainless steel (worst). 108 refs., 31 figs., 7 tabs

  9. Variation in LPA is associated with Lp(a levels in three populations from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Logan Dumitrescu

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The distribution of lipoprotein(a [Lp(a] levels can differ dramatically across diverse racial/ethnic populations. The extent to which genetic variation in LPA can explain these differences is not fully understood. To explore this, 19 LPA tagSNPs were genotyped in 7,159 participants from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III. NHANES III is a diverse population-based survey with DNA samples linked to hundreds of quantitative traits, including serum Lp(a. Tests of association between LPA variants and transformed Lp(a levels were performed across the three different NHANES subpopulations (non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks, and Mexican Americans. At a significance threshold of p<0.0001, 15 of the 19 SNPs tested were strongly associated with Lp(a levels in at least one subpopulation, six in at least two subpopulations, and none in all three subpopulations. In non-Hispanic whites, three variants were associated with Lp(a levels, including previously known rs6919246 (p = 1.18 × 10(-30. Additionally, 12 and 6 variants had significant associations in non-Hispanic blacks and Mexican Americans, respectively. The additive effects of these associated alleles explained up to 11% of the variance observed for Lp(a levels in the different racial/ethnic populations. The findings reported here replicate previous candidate gene and genome-wide association studies for Lp(a levels in European-descent populations and extend these findings to other populations. While we demonstrate that LPA is an important contributor to Lp(a levels regardless of race/ethnicity, the lack of generalization of associations across all subpopulations suggests that specific LPA variants may be contributing to the observed Lp(a between-population variance.

  10. Added value from 576 years of tree-ring records in the prediction of the Great Salt Lake level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert R. Gillies; Oi-Yu Chung; S.-Y. Simon Wang; R. Justin DeRose; Yan Sun

    2015-01-01

    Predicting lake level fluctuations of the Great Salt Lake (GSL) in Utah - the largest terminal salt-water lake in the Western Hemisphere - is critical from many perspectives. The GSL integrates both climate and hydrological variations within the region and is particularly sensitive to low-frequency climate cycles. Since most hydroclimate variable records cover...

  11. Hyperspectral classification of grassland species: towards a UAS application for semi-automatic field surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopatin, Javier; Fassnacht, Fabian E.; Kattenborn, Teja; Schmidtlein, Sebastian

    2017-04-01

    Grasslands are one of the ecosystems that have been strongly intervened during the past decades due to anthropogenic impacts, affecting their structural and functional composition. To monitor the spatial and/or temporal changes of these environments, a reliable field survey is first needed. As quality relevés are usually expensive and time consuming, the amount of information available is usually poor or not well spatially distributed at the regional scale. In the present study, we investigate the possibility of a semi-automated method used for repeated surveys of monitoring sites. We analyze the applicability of very high spatial resolution hyperspectral data to classify grassland species at the level of individuals. The AISA+ imaging spectrometer mounted on a scaffold was applied to scan 1 m2 grassland plots and assess the impact of four sources of variation on the predicted species cover: (1) the spatial resolution of the scans, (2) the species number and structural diversity, (3) the species cover, and (4) the species functional types (bryophytes, forbs and graminoids). We found that the spatial resolution and the diversity level (mainly structural diversity) were the most important source of variation for the proposed approach. A spatial resolution below 1 cm produced relatively high model performances, while predictions with pixel sizes over that threshold produced non adequate results. Areas with low interspecies overlap reached classification median values of 0.8 (kappa). On the contrary, results were not satisfactory in plots with frequent interspecies overlap in multiple layers. By means of a bootstrapping procedure, we found that areas with shadows and mixed pixels introduce uncertainties into the classification. We conclude that the application of very high resolution hyperspectral remote sensing as a robust alternative or supplement to field surveys is possible for environments with low structural heterogeneity. This study presents the first try of a

  12. Major depressive disorder subtypes to predict long-term course

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Loo, Hanna M.; Cai, Tianxi; Gruber, Michael J.; Li, Junlong; de Jonge, Peter; Petukhova, Maria; Rose, Sherri; Sampson, Nancy A.; Schoevers, Robert A.; Wardenaar, Klaas J.; Wilcox, Marsha A.; Al-Hamzawi, Ali Obaid; Andrade, Laura Helena; Bromet, Evelyn J.; Bunting, Brendan; Fayyad, John; Florescu, Silvia E.; Gureje, Oye; Hu, Chiyi; Huang, Yueqin; Levinson, Daphna; Medina-Mora, Maria Elena; Nakane, Yoshibumi; Posada-Villa, Jose; Scott, Kate M.; Xavier, Miguel; Zarkov, Zahari; Kessler, Ronald C.

    2016-01-01

    Background Variation in course of major depressive disorder (MDD) is not strongly predicted by existing subtype distinctions. A new subtyping approach is considered here. Methods Two data mining techniques, ensemble recursive partitioning and Lasso generalized linear models (GLMs) followed by k-means cluster analysis, are used to search for subtypes based on index episode symptoms predicting subsequent MDD course in the World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys. The WMH surveys are community surveys in 16 countries. Lifetime DSM-IV MDD was reported by 8,261 respondents. Retrospectively reported outcomes included measures of persistence (number of years with an episode; number of with an episode lasting most of the year) and severity (hospitalization for MDD; disability due to MDD). Results Recursive partitioning found significant clusters defined by the conjunctions of early onset, suicidality, and anxiety (irritability, panic, nervousness-worry-anxiety) during the index episode. GLMs found additional associations involving a number of individual symptoms. Predicted values of the four outcomes were strongly correlated. Cluster analysis of these predicted values found three clusters having consistently high, intermediate, or low predicted scores across all outcomes. The high-risk cluster (30.0% of respondents) accounted for 52.9-69.7% of high persistence and severity and was most strongly predicted by index episode severe dysphoria, suicidality, anxiety, and early onset. A total symptom count, in comparison, was not a significant predictor. Conclusions Despite being based on retrospective reports, results suggest that useful MDD subtyping distinctions can be made using data mining methods. Further studies are needed to test and expand these results with prospective data. PMID:24425049

  13. A mathematical model for predicting glucose levels in critically-ill patients: the PIGnOLI model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongheng Zhang

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives. Glycemic control is of paramount importance in the intensive care unit. Presently, several BG control algorithms have been developed for clinical trials, but they are mostly based on experts’ opinion and consensus. There are no validated models predicting how glucose levels will change after initiating of insulin infusion in critically ill patients. The study aimed to develop an equation for initial insulin dose setting.Methods. A large critical care database was employed for the study. Linear regression model fitting was employed. Retested blood glucose was used as the independent variable. Insulin rate was forced into the model. Multivariable fractional polynomials and interaction terms were used to explore the complex relationships among covariates. The overall fit of the model was examined by using residuals and adjusted R-squared values. Regression diagnostics were used to explore the influence of outliers on the model.Main Results. A total of 6,487 ICU admissions requiring insulin pump therapy were identified. The dataset was randomly split into two subsets at 7 to 3 ratio. The initial model comprised fractional polynomials and interactions terms. However, this model was not stable by excluding several outliers. I fitted a simple linear model without interaction. The selected prediction model (Predicting Glucose Levels in ICU, PIGnOLI included variables of initial blood glucose, insulin rate, PO volume, total parental nutrition, body mass index (BMI, lactate, congestive heart failure, renal failure, liver disease, time interval of BS recheck, dextrose rate. Insulin rate was significantly associated with blood glucose reduction (coefficient: −0.52, 95% CI [−1.03, −0.01]. The parsimonious model was well validated with the validation subset, with an adjusted R-squared value of 0.8259.Conclusion. The study developed the PIGnOLI model for the initial insulin dose setting. Furthermore, experimental study is

  14. Ultrasonography survey and thyroid cancer in the Fukushima Prefecture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacob, Peter; Kaiser, Jan Christian; Ulanovsky, Alexander [Helmholtz Zentrum Muenchen-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Department of Radiation Sciences, Institute of Radiation Protection, Neuherberg (Germany)

    2014-05-15

    Thyroid cancer is one of the major health concerns after the accident in the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station (NPS). Currently, ultrasonography surveys are being performed for persons residing in the Fukushima Prefecture at the time of the accident with an age of up to 18 years. Here, the expected thyroid cancer prevalence in the Fukushima Prefecture is assessed based on an ultrasonography survey of Ukrainians, who were exposed at an age of up to 18 years to {sup 131}I released during the Chernobyl NPS accident, and on differences in equipment and study protocol in the two surveys. Radiation risk of thyroid cancer incidence among survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and preliminary estimates of thyroid dose due to the Fukushima accident were used for the prediction of baseline and radiation-related thyroid cancer risks. We estimate a prevalence of thyroid cancer of 0.027 % (95 % CI 0.010 %; 0.050 %) for the first screening campaign in the Fukushima Prefecture. Compared with the incidence rate in Japan in 2007, the ultrasonography survey is predicted to increase baseline thyroid cancer incidence by a factor of 7.4 (95 % CI 0.95; 17.3). Under the condition of continued screening, thyroid cancer during the first fifty years after the accident is predicted to be detected for about 2 % of the screened population. The prediction of radiation-related thyroid cancer in the most exposed fraction (a few ten thousand persons) of the screened population of the Fukushima Prefecture has a large uncertainty with the best estimates of the average risk of 0.1-0.3 %, depending on average dose. (orig.)

  15. How well can post-traumatic stress disorder be predicted from pre-trauma risk factors? An exploratory study in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, Ronald C; Rose, Sherri; Koenen, Karestan C; Karam, Elie G; Stang, Paul E; Stein, Dan J; Heeringa, Steven G; Hill, Eric D; Liberzon, Israel; McLaughlin, Katie A; McLean, Samuel A; Pennell, Beth E; Petukhova, Maria; Rosellini, Anthony J; Ruscio, Ayelet M; Shahly, Victoria; Shalev, Arieh Y; Silove, Derrick; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Angermeyer, Matthias C; Bromet, Evelyn J; de Almeida, José Miguel Caldas; de Girolamo, Giovanni; de Jonge, Peter; Demyttenaere, Koen; Florescu, Silvia E; Gureje, Oye; Haro, Josep Maria; Hinkov, Hristo; Kawakami, Norito; Kovess-Masfety, Viviane; Lee, Sing; Medina-Mora, Maria Elena; Murphy, Samuel D; Navarro-Mateu, Fernando; Piazza, Marina; Posada-Villa, Jose; Scott, Kate; Torres, Yolanda; Carmen Viana, Maria

    2014-10-01

    Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) should be one of the most preventable mental disorders, since many people exposed to traumatic experiences (TEs) could be targeted in first response settings in the immediate aftermath of exposure for preventive intervention. However, these interventions are costly and the proportion of TE-exposed people who develop PTSD is small. To be cost-effective, risk prediction rules are needed to target high-risk people in the immediate aftermath of a TE. Although a number of studies have been carried out to examine prospective predictors of PTSD among people recently exposed to TEs, most were either small or focused on a narrow sample, making it unclear how well PTSD can be predicted in the total population of people exposed to TEs. The current report investigates this issue in a large sample based on the World Health Organization (WHO)'s World Mental Health Surveys. Retrospective reports were obtained on the predictors of PTSD associated with 47,466 TE exposures in representative community surveys carried out in 24 countries. Machine learning methods (random forests, penalized regression, super learner) were used to develop a model predicting PTSD from information about TE type, socio-demographics, and prior histories of cumulative TE exposure and DSM-IV disorders. DSM-IV PTSD prevalence was 4.0% across the 47,466 TE exposures. 95.6% of these PTSD cases were associated with the 10.0% of exposures (i.e., 4,747) classified by machine learning algorithm as having highest predicted PTSD risk. The 47,466 exposures were divided into 20 ventiles (20 groups of equal size) ranked by predicted PTSD risk. PTSD occurred after 56.3% of the TEs in the highest-risk ventile, 20.0% of the TEs in the second highest ventile, and 0.0-1.3% of the TEs in the 18 remaining ventiles. These patterns of differential risk were quite stable across demographic-geographic sub-samples. These results demonstrate that a sensitive risk algorithm can be created using

  16. Urinary engrailed-2 (EN2) levels predict tumour volume in men undergoing radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pandha, Hardev; Sørensen, Karina Dalsgaard; Ørntoft, Torben Falck

    2012-01-01

    ELISA test and is not dependent on other parameters, even PSA, unlike all the other current biomarkers under evaluation. To date, no marker correlates with the amount of cancer present - the present study shows this positive correlation with EN2 in men undergoing prostatectomy. The potential utility...... in men who had undergone radical prostatectomy (RP) for prostate cancer. To date, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels have not reliably predicted prostate cancer volume. Reliable volume indicator biomarker(s) may aid management decisions, e.g. active treatment vs active surveillance. PATIENTS......: In all, 88 of the whole cohort of 125 men (70%) were positive for EN2 in their urine (>42.5 µg/L); 38/58 (65%) men where cancer volume data was available. There was no statistical relationship between urinary EN2 levels and serum PSA levels. PSA levels did not correlate with tumour stage, combined...

  17. Early changes in adipokine levels and baseline limb fat may predict HIV lipoatrophy over 2 years following initiation of antiretroviral therapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Calmy, A; Carey, D; Mallon, P W G

    2008-01-01

    levels during the first 6 months of ART, independently predicted a peripheral fat loss of > or = 2 kg [odds ratio (OR) 2.58, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-6.41; OR 3.15, 95% CI 1.34-7.35, respectively). VAT changes showed a borderline association with high baseline tumour necrosis factor-alpha levels...

  18. Aggregate-level analysis and prediction of midterm senatorial elections in the United States, 1974-1986.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichtman, A J; Keilis-Borok, V I

    1989-12-01

    Pattern recognition study demonstrates that the outcomes of American midterm senatorial elections follow the dynamics of simple integral parameters that depict preelectoral situations aggregated to the state as a whole. A set of "commonsense" parameters is identified that is sufficient to predict such elections state-by-state and year-by-year. The analysis rejects many similar commonsense parameters. The existence and nature of integral collective behavior in U.S. elections at the level of the individual states is investigated. Implications for understanding the American electoral process are discussed.

  19. Vorticity, backscatter and counter-gradient transport predictions using two-level simulation of turbulent flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranjan, R.; Menon, S.

    2018-04-01

    The two-level simulation (TLS) method evolves both the large-and the small-scale fields in a two-scale approach and has shown good predictive capabilities in both isotropic and wall-bounded high Reynolds number (Re) turbulent flows in the past. Sensitivity and ability of this modelling approach to predict fundamental features (such as backscatter, counter-gradient turbulent transport, small-scale vorticity, etc.) seen in high Re turbulent flows is assessed here by using two direct numerical simulation (DNS) datasets corresponding to a forced isotropic turbulence at Taylor's microscale-based Reynolds number Reλ ≈ 433 and a fully developed turbulent flow in a periodic channel at friction Reynolds number Reτ ≈ 1000. It is shown that TLS captures the dynamics of local co-/counter-gradient transport and backscatter at the requisite scales of interest. These observations are further confirmed through a posteriori investigation of the flow in a periodic channel at Reτ = 2000. The results reveal that the TLS method can capture both the large- and the small-scale flow physics in a consistent manner, and at a reduced overall cost when compared to the estimated DNS or wall-resolved LES cost.

  20. State-level women's status and psychiatric disorders among US women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaughlin, Katie A; Xuan, Ziming; Subramanian, S V; Koenen, Karestan C

    2011-11-01

    Although greater gender equality at the state-level is associated with fewer depressive symptoms in women after controlling for individual-level confounders, the extent to which state-level women's status is related to psychiatric disorders in women and gender differences in psychopathology has never been examined. We examined these associations in the current report. We used data from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (n=34,653), a national probability sample of US adults. Respondents completed structured diagnostic assessments of DSM-IV psychiatric disorders. We used generalized estimating equations to examine associations between four state-level indicators of women's status (political participation, employment/earnings, social/economic autonomy, and reproductive rights) and odds of 12-month mood and anxiety disorders among women. We also tested whether women's status predicted the magnitude of gender differences in psychiatric disorders. State-level political participation, employment/earnings, and social/economic autonomy were unrelated to odds of 12-month mood and anxiety disorders among women. However, the prevalence of major depression and post-traumatic stress disorder was lower in states where women have greater reproductive rights (OR 0.93-0.95), controlling for individual-level risk factors. None of the women's status indicators predicted gender differences in mood and anxiety disorder prevalence. State-level women's status was largely unrelated to mood and anxiety disorders in women or to gender differences in these disorders. Investigation of social factors that play a role in shaping the distribution of individual-level risk factors that are associated with gender disparities in psychiatric disorders represents an important avenue for future research.