Search for very high-energy gamma-ray emission from the microquasar Cygnus X-1 with the MAGIC telescopes

Science.gov (United States)

Ahnen, M. L.; Ansoldi, S.; Antonelli, L. A.; Arcaro, C.; Babić, A.; Banerjee, B.; Bangale, P.; Barres de Almeida, U.; Barrio, J. A.; Becerra González, J.; Bednarek, W.; Bernardini, E.; Berti, A.; Bhattacharyya, W.; Biasuzzi, B.; Biland, A.; Blanch, O.; Bonnefoy, S.; Bonnoli, G.; Carosi, R.; Carosi, A.; Chatterjee, A.; Colin, P.; Colombo, E.; Contreras, J. L.; Cortina, J.; Covino, S.; Cumani, P.; da Vela, P.; Dazzi, F.; de Angelis, A.; de Lotto, B.; de Oña Wilhelmi, E.; di Pierro, F.; Doert, M.; Domínguez, A.; Dominis Prester, D.; Dorner, D.; Doro, M.; Einecke, S.; Eisenacher Glawion, D.; Elsaesser, D.; Engelkemeier, M.; Fallah Ramazani, V.; Fernández-Barral, A.; Fidalgo, D.; Fonseca, M. V.; Font, L.; Fruck, C.; Galindo, D.; García López, R. J.; Garczarczyk, M.; Gaug, M.; Giammaria, P.; Godinović, N.; Gora, D.; Guberman, D.; Hadasch, D.; Hahn, A.; Hassan, T.; Hayashida, M.; Herrera, J.; Hose, J.; Hrupec, D.; Ishio, K.; Konno, Y.; Kubo, H.; Kushida, J.; Kuveždić, D.; Lelas, D.; Lindfors, E.; Lombardi, S.; Longo, F.; López, M.; Maggio, C.; Majumdar, P.; Makariev, M.; Maneva, G.; Manganaro, M.; Mannheim, K.; Maraschi, L.; Mariotti, M.; Martínez, M.; Mazin, D.; Menzel, U.; Minev, M.; Mirzoyan, R.; Moralejo, A.; Moreno, V.; Moretti, E.; Neustroev, V.; Niedzwiecki, A.; Nievas Rosillo, M.; Nilsson, K.; Ninci, D.; Nishijima, K.; Noda, K.; Nogués, L.; Paiano, S.; Palacio, J.; Paneque, D.; Paoletti, R.; Paredes, J. M.; Paredes-Fortuny, X.; Pedaletti, G.; Peresano, M.; Perri, L.; Persic, M.; Prada Moroni, P. G.; Prandini, E.; Puljak, I.; Garcia, J. R.; Reichardt, I.; Rhode, W.; Ribó, M.; Rico, J.; Righi, C.; Saito, T.; Satalecka, K.; Schroeder, S.; Schweizer, T.; Sitarek, J.; Šnidarić, I.; Sobczynska, D.; Stamerra, A.; Strzys, M.; Surić, T.; Takalo, L.; Tavecchio, F.; Temnikov, P.; Terzić, T.; Tescaro, D.; Teshima, M.; Torres, D. F.; Torres-Albà, N.; Treves, A.; Vanzo, G.; Vazquez Acosta, M.; Vovk, I.; Ward, J. E.; Will, M.; Zarić, D.; MAGIC Collaboration; Bosch-Ramon, V.; Pooley, G. G.; Trushkin, S. A.; Zanin, R.

2017-12-01

The microquasar Cygnus X-1 displays the two typical soft and hard X-ray states of a black hole transient. During the latter, Cygnus X-1 shows a one-sided relativistic radio-jet. Recent detection of the system in the high energy (HE; E ≳ 60 MeV) gamma-ray range with Fermi-LAT associates this emission with the outflow. Former MAGIC observations revealed a hint of flaring activity in the very high-energy (VHE; E ≳ 100 GeV) regime during this X-ray state. We analyse ∼97 h of Cygnus X-1 data taken with the MAGIC telescopes between July 2007 and October 2014. To shed light on the correlation between hard X-ray and VHE gamma rays as previously suggested, we study each main X-ray state separately. We perform an orbital phase-folded analysis to look for variability in the VHE band. Additionally, to place this variability behaviour in a multiwavelength context, we compare our results with Fermi-LAT, AGILE, Swift-BAT, MAXI, RXTE-ASM, AMI and RATAN-600 data. We do not detect Cygnus X-1 in the VHE regime. We establish upper limits for each X-ray state, assuming a power-law distribution with photon index Γ = 3.2. For steady emission in the hard and soft X-ray states, we set integral upper limits at 95 per cent confidence level for energies above 200 GeV at 2.6 × 10-12 photons cm-2 s-1 and 1.0 × 10-11 photons cm-2 s-1, respectively. We rule out steady VHE gamma-ray emission above this energy range, at the level of the MAGIC sensitivity, originating in the interaction between the relativistic jet and the surrounding medium, while the emission above this flux level produced inside the binary still remains a valid possibility.

SUPPLEMENT: “THE RATE OF BINARY BLACK HOLE MERGERS INFERRED FROM ADVANCED LIGO OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING GW150914” (2016, ApJL, 833, L1)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abernathy, M. R.; Adhikari, R. X. [LIGO, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Abbott, T. D. [Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 (United States); Acernese, F.; Addesso, P. [Università di Salerno, Fisciano, I-84084 Salerno (Italy); Ackley, K. [University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 (United States); Adams, C. [LIGO Livingston Observatory, Livingston, LA 70754 (United States); Adams, T. [Laboratoire d’Annecy-le-Vieux de Physique des Particules (LAPP), Université Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS/IN2P3, F-74941 Annecy-le-Vieux (France); Adya, V. B.; Affeldt, C.; Allen, B. [Albert-Einstein-Institut, Max-Planck-Institut für Gravitationsphysik, D-30167 Hannover (Germany); Agathos, M.; Agatsuma, K. [Nikhef, Science Park, 1098 XG Amsterdam (Netherlands); Aggarwal, N. [LIGO, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Aguiar, O. D. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, 12227-010 São José dos Campos, São Paulo (Brazil); Aiello, L. [INFN, Gran Sasso Science Institute, I-67100 L’Aquila (Italy); Ain, A. [Inter-University Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics, Pune 411007 (India); Ajith, P. [International Centre for Theoretical Sciences, Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Bangalore 560012 (India); Collaboration: LIGO Scientific Collaboration and Virgo Collaboration; and others

2016-12-01

This article provides supplemental information for a Letter reporting the rate of (BBH) coalescences inferred from 16 days of coincident Advanced LIGO observations surrounding the transient (GW) signal GW150914. In that work we reported various rate estimates whose 90% confidence intervals fell in the range 2–600 Gpc{sup −3} yr{sup −1}. Here we give details on our method and computations, including information about our search pipelines, a derivation of our likelihood function for the analysis, a description of the astrophysical search trigger distribution expected from merging BBHs, details on our computational methods, a description of the effects and our model for calibration uncertainty, and an analytic method for estimating our detector sensitivity, which is calibrated to our measurements.

Resolved, expanding jets in the Galactic black hole candidate XTE J1908+094

Science.gov (United States)

Rushton, A. P.; Miller-Jones, J. C. A.; Curran, P. A.; Sivakoff, G. R.; Rupen, M. P.; Paragi, Z.; Spencer, R. E.; Yang, J.; Altamirano, D.; Belloni, T.; Fender, R. P.; Krimm, H. A.; Maitra, D.; Migliari, S.; Russell, D. M.; Russell, T. D.; Soria, R.; Tudose, V.

2017-07-01

Black hole X-ray binaries undergo occasional outbursts caused by changing inner accretion flows. Here we report high angular resolution radio observations of the 2013 outburst of the black hole candidate X-ray binary system XTE J1908+094, using data from the Very Long Baseline Array and European VLBI Network. We show that following a hard-to-soft state transition, we detect moving jet knots that appear asymmetric in morphology and brightness, and expand to become laterally resolved as they move away from the core, along an axis aligned approximately -11° east of north. We initially see only the southern component, whose evolution gives rise to a 15-mJy radio flare and generates the observed radio polarization. This fades and becomes resolved out after 4 days, after which a second component appears to the north, moving in the opposite direction. From the timing of the appearance of the knots relative to the X-ray state transition, a 90° swing of the inferred magnetic field orientation, the asymmetric appearance of the knots, their complex and evolving morphology, and their low speeds, we interpret the knots as working surfaces where the jets impact the surrounding medium. This would imply a substantially denser environment surrounding XTE J1908+094 than has been inferred to exist around the microquasar sources GRS 1915+105 and GRO J1655-40.

The Giant Flares of the Microquasar Cygnus X-3: X-Rays States and Jets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergei Trushkin

2017-11-01

Full Text Available We report on two giant radio flares of the X-ray binary microquasar Cyg X-3, consisting of a Wolf–Rayet star and probably a black hole. The first flare occurred on 13 September 2016, 2000 days after a previous giant flare in February 2011, as the RATAN-600 radio telescope daily monitoring showed. After 200 days on 1 April 2017, we detected a second giant flare. Both flares are characterized by the increase of the fluxes by almost 2000-times (from 5–10 to 17,000 mJy at 4–11 GHz during 2–7 days, indicating relativistic bulk motions from the central region of the accretion disk around a black hole. The flaring light curves and spectral evolution of the synchrotron radiation indicate the formation of two relativistic collimated jets from the binaries. Both flares occurred when the source went from hypersoft X-ray states to soft ones, i.e. hard fluxes (Swift/BAT 15–50 keV data dropped to zero, the soft X-ray fluxes (MAXI 2–10 keV data staying high, and then later, the binary came back to a hard state. Both similar giant flares indicated the unchanged mechanism of the jets’ formation in Cyg X-3, probably in conditions of strong stellar wind and powerful accretion onto a black hole.

Design Issues and Inference in Experimental L2 Research

Science.gov (United States)

Hudson, Thom; Llosa, Lorena

2015-01-01

Explicit attention to research design issues is essential in experimental second language (L2) research. Too often, however, such careful attention is not paid. This article examines some of the issues surrounding experimental L2 research and its relationships to causal inferences. It discusses the place of research questions and hypotheses,…

Plasma phenomenology in astrophysical systems: Radio-sources and jets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Montani, Giovanni; Petitta, Jacopo

2014-01-01

We review the plasma phenomenology in the astrophysical sources which show appreciable radio emissions, namely Radio-Jets from Pulsars, Microquasars, Quasars, and Radio-Active Galaxies. A description of their basic features is presented, then we discuss in some details the links between their morphology and the mechanisms that lead to the different radio-emissions, investigating especially the role played by the plasma configurations surrounding compact objects (Neutron Stars, Black Holes). For the sake of completeness, we briefly mention observational techniques and detectors, whose structure set them apart from other astrophysical instruments. The fundamental ideas concerning angular momentum transport across plasma accretion disks—together with the disk-source-jet coupling problem—are discussed, by stressing their successes and their shortcomings. An alternative scenario is then inferred, based on a parallelism between astrophysical and laboratory plasma configurations, where small-scale structures can be found. We will focus our attention on the morphology of the radio-jets, on their coupling with the accretion disks and on the possible triggering phenomena, viewed as profiles of plasma instabilities

VLBI OBSERVATION OF MICROQUASAR CYG X-3 DURING AN X-RAY STATE TRANSITION FROM SOFT TO HARD IN THE 2007 MAY-JUNE FLARE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Jeong-Sook; Kim, Sang Joon [School of Space Science, Kyunghee University, Seocheon-dong, Giheung-si, Gyeonggi-do 446-701 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Soon-Wook [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, 776 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong, Daejeon 305-348 (Korea, Republic of); Kurayama, Tomoharu [Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Kagoshima University, 1-21-35 Korimoto, Kagoshima, Kagoshima 890-0065 (Japan); Honma, Mareki [National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, 2-21-1 Osawa, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-8588 (Japan); Sasao, Tetsuo, E-mail: evony@kasi.re.kr, E-mail: skim@kasi.re.kr [Yaeyama Star Club, Ookawa, Ishigaki, Okinawa 904-0022 (Japan)

2013-07-20

We present a radio observation of microquasar Cyg X-3 during an X-ray state transition from ultrasoft to hard state in the 2007 May-June flare using the VLBI Exploration of Radio Astrometry at 22 GHz. During the transition, a short-lived mini-flare of {approx}< 3 hr was detected prior to the major flare. In such a transition, a jet ejection is believed to occur, but there have been no direct observations to support it. An analysis of Gaussian fits to the observed visibility amplitudes shows a time variation of the source axis, or a structural change, during the mini-flare. Our model fits, together with other multiwavelength observations in the radio, soft, and hard X-rays, and the shock-in-jet models for other flaring activities at GHz wavebands, suggest a high possibility of synchrotron flares during the mini-flare, indicative of a predominant contribution from jet activity. Therefore, the mini-flare with an associated structural change is indicative of a jet ejection event in the state transition from ultrasoft to hard state.

Identification of β-SiC surrounded by relatable surrounding diamond ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

β-SiC is identified in the presence of a relatable surrounding diamond medium using subtle, but discernible Raman ... Change in the nature of the surrounding material structure and its .... intensity implies very low graphite content in thin film. In.

Aerial radiological survey of the Shoreham Nuclear Power Station and surrounding area Brookhaven, New York

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-03-01

An aerial radiological survey was performed over the area surrounding the Shoreham Nuclear Power Station during 5 to 9 June 1983. The survey, which covered an area of 338 square kilometers (131 square miles), also encompassed the entire Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) facility. The highest radiation exposure rate, over 1 milliroentgen per hour (mR/h), was inferred from data measured directly over the BNL facility. This detected activity was due to the presence of cobalt-58, cobalt-60 and cesium-137, which was consistent with normal BNL operations. With the exception of the BNL facility, the only detected man-made radioactivity was found near a cottage in Moriches, New York and was due to the presence of cobalt-60. For the remainder of the survey area, the inferred radiation exposure rates varied generally from 6 to 12 microroentgens per hour (μR/h). The reported exposure rate values include an estimated cosmic ray contribution of 3.7 μR/h. Ground-based measurements, conducted concurrently with the aerial survey, were compared to the inferred aerial results. Pressurized ionization chamber readings and a group of soil samples were acquired from five locations within the survey area. The exposure rate values obtained from these measurements were consistent with those inferred from the aerial results. 11 references, 12 figures, 3 tables

Constraints on particle acceleration in SS433/W50 from MAGIC and H.E.S.S. observations

OpenAIRE

MAGIC Collaboration; Ahnen, M. L.; Ansoldi, S.; Antonelli, L. A.; Arcaro, C.; Babić, A.; Banerjee, B.; Bangale, P.; de Almeida, U. Barres; Barrio, J. A.; González, J. Becerra; Bednarek, W.; Bernardini, E.; Berti, A.; Biasuzzi, B.

2017-01-01

The large jet kinetic power and non-thermal processes occurring in the microquasar SS 433 make this source a good candidate for a very high-energy (VHE) gamma-ray emitter. Gamma-ray fluxes have been predicted for both the central binary and the interaction regions between jets and surrounding nebula. Also, non-thermal emission at lower energies has been previously reported. We explore the capability of SS 433 to emit VHE gamma rays during periods in which the expected flux attenuation due to ...

Constraints on particle acceleration in SS433/W50 from MAGIC and H.E.S.S. observations

OpenAIRE

Ahnen, M. L.; Ansoldi, S.; Bednarek, W.; Paiano, S.; Palacio, J.; Paneque, D.; Paoletti, R.; Paredes, J. M.; Paredes-Fortuny, X.; Pedaletti, G.; Peresano, M.; Perri, L.; Persic, M.; Bernardini, E.; Prada Moroni, P. G.

2018-01-01

Context. The large jet kinetic power and non-thermal processes occurring in the microquasar SS 433 make this source a good candidate for a very high-energy (VHE) gamma-ray emitter. Gamma-ray fluxes above the sensitivity limits of current Cherenkov telescopes have been predicted for both the central X-ray binary system and the interaction regions of SS 433 jets with the surrounding W50 nebula. Non-thermal emission at lower energies has been previously reported, indicating that efficient partic...

The genetic assimilation in language borrowing inferred from Jing People.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Xiufeng; Zhou, Qinghui; Bin, Xiaoyun; Lai, Shu; Lin, Chaowen; Hu, Rong; Xiao, Jiashun; Luo, Dajun; Li, Yingxiang; Wei, Lan-Hai; Yeh, Hui-Yuan; Chen, Gang; Wang, Chuan-Chao

2018-02-28

The Jing people are a recognized ethnic group in Guangxi, southwest China, who are the immigrants from Vietnam during the 16th century. They speak Vietnamese but with lots of language borrowings from Cantonese, Zhuang, and Mandarin. However, it's unclear if there is large-scale gene flow from surrounding populations into Jing people during their language change due to the very limited genetic information of this population. We collected blood samples from 37 Jing and 3 Han Chinese individuals from Wanwei, Shanxin, and Wutou islands in Guangxi and genotyped about 600,000 genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We used Principal Component Analysis (PCA), ADMIXTURE analysis, f statistics, qpWave and qpAdm to infer the population genetic structure and admixture. Our data revealed that the Jing people are genetically similar to the populations in southwest China and mainland Southeast Asia. But compared with Vietnamese, they show significant evidence of gene flow from surrounding East Asians. The admixture proportion is estimated to be around 35-42% in different Jing groups using southern Han Chinese as a proxy. The majority of the paternal lineages of Jing people are most likely from surrounding East Asians. We conclude that the formation and language change of present-day Jing people have involved genetic assimilation of surrounding East Asian populations. The language borrowing, in this case, is not only a cultural phenomenon but has involved demic diffusion. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Inferring the palaeoenvironment of ancient bacteria on the basis of resurrected proteins

Science.gov (United States)

Gaucher, Eric A.; Thomson, J. Michael; Burgan, Michelle F.; Benner, Steven A.

2003-01-01

Features of the physical environment surrounding an ancestral organism can be inferred by reconstructing sequences of ancient proteins made by those organisms, resurrecting these proteins in the laboratory, and measuring their properties. Here, we resurrect candidate sequences for elongation factors of the Tu family (EF-Tu) found at ancient nodes in the bacterial evolutionary tree, and measure their activities as a function of temperature. The ancient EF-Tu proteins have temperature optima of 55-65 degrees C. This value seems to be robust with respect to uncertainties in the ancestral reconstruction. This suggests that the ancient bacteria that hosted these particular genes were thermophiles, and neither hyperthermophiles nor mesophiles. This conclusion can be compared and contrasted with inferences drawn from an analysis of the lengths of branches in trees joining proteins from contemporary bacteria, the distribution of thermophily in derived bacterial lineages, the inferred G + C content of ancient ribosomal RNA, and the geological record combined with assumptions concerning molecular clocks. The study illustrates the use of experimental palaeobiochemistry and assumptions about deep phylogenetic relationships between bacteria to explore the character of ancient life.

An aerial radiological survey of the Enrico Fermi Atomic Power Plant and surrounding area, Newport, Michigan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-05-01

An aerial radiological survey was performed over the area surrounding the Enrico Fermi Atomic Power Plant during the period 27 to 30 May 1986. The survey covered a 64-square-kilometer (25-square-mile) area around the plant. The deteted radiation was due to the presence of varying concentrations of naturally-occurring radioactive materials. Radionuclides of the uranium and thorium decay chains and radioactive potassium were found. For the majority of the survey area, the inferred radiation exposure rate levels varied between 10 and 12 microroentgens per hour (μR/h). The reported exposure rate values included an estimated cosmic ray contribution of 3.7 μR/h. Ground-based measurements, conducted concurrently with the aerial survey, were compared to the inferred aerial results. Pressurized ionization chamber readings and a group of soil samples were acquired at five locations within the survey area. The exposure rate values obtained from these ground-based measurements were in good agreement with the corresponding inferred aerial values. No evidence was found of any radioactive contamination which might have occurred as a result of plant operations. This conclusion was supported by the results of the soil samples analyses and the comparison of the current survey data with those obtained in September 1970. 7 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

An aerial radiological survey of the Sandia National Laboratories and surrounding area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Riedhauser, S.R.

1994-06-01

A team from the Remote Sensing Laboratory conducted an aerial radiological survey of the area surrounding the Sandia National Laboratories and Kirtland Air Force Base in Albuquerque, New Mexico, during March and April 1993. The survey team measured the terrestrial gamma radiation at the site to determine the levels of natural and man-made radiation. This survey includes the areas covered by a previous survey in 1981. The results of the aerial survey show a background exposure rate which varies between 5 and 18 μR/h plus an approximate 6 μR/h contribution from cosmic rays. The major radioactive isotopes found in this survey were: potassium-40, thallium-208, bismuth-214, and actinium-228, which are all naturally-occurring isotopes, and cobalt-60, cesium-137, and excess amounts of thallium-208 and actinium-228, which are due to human actions in the survey area. In regions away from man-made activity, the exposure rates inferred from this survey's gamma ray measurements agree almost exactly with the exposure rates inferred from the 1981 survey. In addition to the aerial measurements, another survey team conducted in situ and soil sample radiation measurements at three sites within the survey perimeter. These ground-based measurements agree with the aerial measurements within ± 5%

Entropic Inference

Science.gov (United States)

Caticha, Ariel

2011-03-01

In this tutorial we review the essential arguments behing entropic inference. We focus on the epistemological notion of information and its relation to the Bayesian beliefs of rational agents. The problem of updating from a prior to a posterior probability distribution is tackled through an eliminative induction process that singles out the logarithmic relative entropy as the unique tool for inference. The resulting method of Maximum relative Entropy (ME), includes as special cases both MaxEnt and Bayes' rule, and therefore unifies the two themes of these workshops—the Maximum Entropy and the Bayesian methods—into a single general inference scheme.

An aerial radiological survey of the Vermont Yankee Nuclear Power Station and surrounding area, Vernon, Vermont

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reiman, R.; Bluitt, C.M.

1993-10-01

An aerial radiological survey was conducted over the Vermont Yankee Nuclear Power Station in Vernon, Vermont, during the period August 7 through August 17, 1989. The survey was conducted at an altitude of 300 feet (91 meters) over a 65-square-mile (168-square-kilometer) area centered on the power station. The purpose of the survey was to document the terrestrial gamma radiation environment of the Vermont Yankee Power Station and surrounding area. The results of the aerial survey are reported as inferred gamma radiation exposure rates at 1 meter above ground level in the form of a contour map. Outside the plant boundary, exposure rates were found to vary between 6 and 10 microroentgens per hour (μR/h) and were attributed to naturally occurring uranium, thorium, and radioactive potassium gamma emitters. The aerial data were compared to ground-based open-quotes benchmarkclose quotes exposure rate measurements and radionuclide assays of soil samples obtained within the survey boundary. The ground-based measurements were found to be in good agreement with those inferred from the aerial measuring system

An aerial radiological survey of the Yankee Rowe Nuclear Power Station and surrounding area, Rowe, Massachusetts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boyns, P.K.; Bluitt, C.M.

1993-09-01

An aerial radiological survey was conducted over the Yankee Rowe Nuclear Power Station in Rowe, Massachusetts, during the period August 17--24, 1989. The survey was conducted at an altitude of 300 feet (91 meters) over an 87-square-mile (225-square-kilometer) area centered on the power station. The purpose of the survey was to document the terrestrial gamma radiation environment of the Yankee Rowe Power Station and the surrounding area. The results of the aerial survey are reported as inferred gamma radiation exposure rates at 1 meter above ground level in the form of a contour map. Outside the plant boundary, exposure rates were found to vary between 6 and 10 microroentgens per hour (μR/h) and were attributed to naturally-occurring uranium, thorium, and radioactive potassium gamma emitters. The aerial data were compared to ground-based ''benchmark'' exposure rate measurements and radionuclide assays of soil samples obtained within the survey boundary. The ground-based measurements were found to be in good agreement with those inferred from the aerial measuring system

More than one kind of inference: re-examining what's learned in feature inference and classification.

Science.gov (United States)

Sweller, Naomi; Hayes, Brett K

2010-08-01

Three studies examined how task demands that impact on attention to typical or atypical category features shape the category representations formed through classification learning and inference learning. During training categories were learned via exemplar classification or by inferring missing exemplar features. In the latter condition inferences were made about missing typical features alone (typical feature inference) or about both missing typical and atypical features (mixed feature inference). Classification and mixed feature inference led to the incorporation of typical and atypical features into category representations, with both kinds of features influencing inferences about familiar (Experiments 1 and 2) and novel (Experiment 3) test items. Those in the typical inference condition focused primarily on typical features. Together with formal modelling, these results challenge previous accounts that have characterized inference learning as producing a focus on typical category features. The results show that two different kinds of inference learning are possible and that these are subserved by different kinds of category representations.

Perceptual inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Aggelopoulos, Nikolaos C

2015-08-01

Perceptual inference refers to the ability to infer sensory stimuli from predictions that result from internal neural representations built through prior experience. Methods of Bayesian statistical inference and decision theory model cognition adequately by using error sensing either in guiding action or in "generative" models that predict the sensory information. In this framework, perception can be seen as a process qualitatively distinct from sensation, a process of information evaluation using previously acquired and stored representations (memories) that is guided by sensory feedback. The stored representations can be utilised as internal models of sensory stimuli enabling long term associations, for example in operant conditioning. Evidence for perceptual inference is contributed by such phenomena as the cortical co-localisation of object perception with object memory, the response invariance in the responses of some neurons to variations in the stimulus, as well as from situations in which perception can be dissociated from sensation. In the context of perceptual inference, sensory areas of the cerebral cortex that have been facilitated by a priming signal may be regarded as comparators in a closed feedback loop, similar to the better known motor reflexes in the sensorimotor system. The adult cerebral cortex can be regarded as similar to a servomechanism, in using sensory feedback to correct internal models, producing predictions of the outside world on the basis of past experience. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SEMANTIC PATCH INFERENCE

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Jesper

2009-01-01

Collateral evolution the problem of updating several library-using programs in response to API changes in the used library. In this dissertation we address the issue of understanding collateral evolutions by automatically inferring a high-level specification of the changes evident in a given set ...... specifications inferred by spdiff in Linux are shown. We find that the inferred specifications concisely capture the actual collateral evolution performed in the examples....

Smart Surroundings

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Havinga, Paul J.M.; Jansen, P.G.; Lijding, M.E.M.; Scholten, Johan

2004-01-01

Ambient systems are networked embedded systems integrated with everyday environments and supporting people in their activities. These systems will create a Smart Surrounding for people to facilitate and enrich daily life and increase productivity at work. Such systems will be quite different from

Multimodel inference and adaptive management

Science.gov (United States)

Rehme, S.E.; Powell, L.A.; Allen, Craig R.

2011-01-01

Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study’s inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference.

Radio Emission from Pulsar Wind Nebulae without Surrounding Supernova Ejecta: Application to FRB 121102

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dai, Z. G.; Wang, J. S. [School of Astronomy and Space Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Yu, Y. W., E-mail: dzg@nju.edu.cn [Institute of Astrophysics, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079 (China)

2017-03-20

In this paper, we propose a new scenario in which a rapidly rotating strongly magnetized pulsar without any surrounding supernova ejecta repeatedly produces fast radio bursts (FRBs) via a range of possible mechanisms; simultaneously, an ultra-relativistic electron/positron pair wind from the pulsar sweeps up its ambient dense interstellar medium, giving rise to a non-relativistic pulsar wind nebula (PWN). We show that the synchrotron radio emission from such a PWN is bright enough to account for the recently discovered persistent radio source associated with the repeating FRB 121102 within reasonable ranges of the model parameters. Our PWN scenario is consistent with the non-evolution of the dispersion measure inferred from all of the repeating bursts observed in four years.

Radio Emission from Pulsar Wind Nebulae without Surrounding Supernova Ejecta: Application to FRB 121102

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dai, Z. G.; Wang, J. S.; Yu, Y. W.

2017-01-01

In this paper, we propose a new scenario in which a rapidly rotating strongly magnetized pulsar without any surrounding supernova ejecta repeatedly produces fast radio bursts (FRBs) via a range of possible mechanisms; simultaneously, an ultra-relativistic electron/positron pair wind from the pulsar sweeps up its ambient dense interstellar medium, giving rise to a non-relativistic pulsar wind nebula (PWN). We show that the synchrotron radio emission from such a PWN is bright enough to account for the recently discovered persistent radio source associated with the repeating FRB 121102 within reasonable ranges of the model parameters. Our PWN scenario is consistent with the non-evolution of the dispersion measure inferred from all of the repeating bursts observed in four years.

Optimal inference with suboptimal models: Addiction and active Bayesian inference

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas H.B.; Mathys, Christoph; Dolan, Ray; Wurst, Friedrich; Kronbichler, Martin; Friston, Karl

2015-01-01

When casting behaviour as active (Bayesian) inference, optimal inference is defined with respect to an agent’s beliefs – based on its generative model of the world. This contrasts with normative accounts of choice behaviour, in which optimal actions are considered in relation to the true structure of the environment – as opposed to the agent’s beliefs about worldly states (or the task). This distinction shifts an understanding of suboptimal or pathological behaviour away from aberrant inference as such, to understanding the prior beliefs of a subject that cause them to behave less ‘optimally’ than our prior beliefs suggest they should behave. Put simply, suboptimal or pathological behaviour does not speak against understanding behaviour in terms of (Bayes optimal) inference, but rather calls for a more refined understanding of the subject’s generative model upon which their (optimal) Bayesian inference is based. Here, we discuss this fundamental distinction and its implications for understanding optimality, bounded rationality and pathological (choice) behaviour. We illustrate our argument using addictive choice behaviour in a recently described ‘limited offer’ task. Our simulations of pathological choices and addictive behaviour also generate some clear hypotheses, which we hope to pursue in ongoing empirical work. PMID:25561321

Explicit and inferred motives for nonsuicidal self-injurious acts and urges in borderline and avoidant personality disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Snir, Avigal; Rafaeli, Eshkol; Gadassi, Reuma; Berenson, Kathy; Downey, Geraldine

2015-07-01

Nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) is a perplexing phenomenon that may have differing motives. The present study used experience sampling methods (ESM) which inquired explicitly about the motives for NSSI, but also enabled a temporal examination of the antecedents/consequences of NSSI; these allow us to infer other motives which were not explicitly endorsed. Adults (n = 152, aged 18-65) with borderline personality disorder (BPD), avoidant personality disorder (APD), or no psychopathology participated in a 3-week computerized diary study. We examined 5 classes of explicit motives for engaging in NSSI, finding support primarily for internally directed rather than interpersonally directed ones. We then used multilevel regression to examine changes in affect, cognition, and behavior surrounding moments of NSSI acts/urges compared with control moments (i.e., without NSSI). We examined changes in 5 scales of inferred motives, designed to correspond to the 5 classes of explicit motives. The results highlight differing motives for NSSI among individuals with BPD and APD, with some similarities (mostly in the explicit motives) and some differences (mostly in the inferred motives) between the disorders. Despite their infrequent explicit endorsement, fluctuations in interpersonally oriented scales were found surrounding NSSI acts/urges. This highlights the need to continue attending to interpersonal aspects of NSSI in research and in clinical practice. Additionally, NSSI urges, like acts, were followed by decline in affective/interpersonal distress (although in a delayed manner). Thus, interventions that build distress tolerance and enhance awareness for affective changes, and for antecedent/consequence patterns in NSSI, could help individuals resist the urge to self-injure. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

An aerial radiological survey of the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant and surrounding area, Paducah, Kentucky

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-11-01

An aerial radiological survey of the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP) and surrounding area in Paducah, Kentucky, was conducted during May 15--25, 1990. The purpose of the survey was to measure and document the terrestrial radiological environment at the PGDP and surrounding area for use in effective environmental management and emergency response planning. The aerial survey was flown at an altitude of 61 meters (200 feet) along a series of parallel lines 107 meters (350 feet) apart. The survey encompassed an area of 62 square kilometers (24 square miles), bordered on the north by the Ohio River. The results of the aerial survey are reported as inferred exposure rates at 1 meter above ground level in the form of a gamma radiation contour map. Typical background exposure rates were found to vary from 5 to 12 microroentgens per hour (μR/h). Protactinium-234m, a radioisotope indicative of uranium-238, was detected at several facilities at the PGDR. In support of the aerial survey, ground-based exposure rate and soil sample measurements were obtained at several sites within the survey perimeter. The results of the aerial and ground-based measurements were found to agree within ±15%

Inference rule and problem solving

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goto, S

1982-04-01

Intelligent information processing signifies an opportunity of having man's intellectual activity executed on the computer, in which inference, in place of ordinary calculation, is used as the basic operational mechanism for such an information processing. Many inference rules are derived from syllogisms in formal logic. The problem of programming this inference function is referred to as a problem solving. Although logically inference and problem-solving are in close relation, the calculation ability of current computers is on a low level for inferring. For clarifying the relation between inference and computers, nonmonotonic logic has been considered. The paper deals with the above topics. 16 references.

Deformation at longyao ground fissure and its surroundings, north China plain, revealed by ALOS PALSAR PS-InSAR

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Chengsheng; Lu, Zhong; Zhang, Qin; Zhao, Chaoying; Peng, Jianbing; Ji, Lingyun

2018-05-01

The Longyao ground fissure (LGF) is the longest and most active among more than 1000 ground fissures on the North China Plain. There have been many studies on the formation mechanism of the LGF, due to its scientific importance and its potential for damage to the environment. These studies have been based on both regional tectonic analysis and numerical simulations. In order to provide a better understanding of the formation mechanism, the deformation of the crack and its surrounding environment should be taken into consideration. In this paper, PS-InSAR technology was employed to assess the ground deformation of LGF and its surrounding area, using L-band ALOS-1 PALSAR images from 2007 to 2011. The characteristics of ground deformation, relationships between fissure activity and surrounding faults and groundwater exploitation were analyzed. This study shows that the north side of Longyao fault (LF) is uplifting while the south side is subsiding. This provides the tectonic conditions responsible for the activity of the ground fissure. Local groundwater exploitation also plays an important role in the development of ground fissures. InSAR observations were modeled to infer the loading depth (-2.8 km) and the slip rate (31.1 mm/yr) of LF.

Knowledge and inference

CERN Document Server

Nagao, Makoto

1990-01-01

Knowledge and Inference discusses an important problem for software systems: How do we treat knowledge and ideas on a computer and how do we use inference to solve problems on a computer? The book talks about the problems of knowledge and inference for the purpose of merging artificial intelligence and library science. The book begins by clarifying the concept of """"knowledge"""" from many points of view, followed by a chapter on the current state of library science and the place of artificial intelligence in library science. Subsequent chapters cover central topics in the artificial intellig

Geometric statistical inference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Periwal, Vipul

1999-01-01

A reparametrization-covariant formulation of the inverse problem of probability is explicitly solved for finite sample sizes. The inferred distribution is explicitly continuous for finite sample size. A geometric solution of the statistical inference problem in higher dimensions is outlined

Goal inferences about robot behavior : goal inferences and human response behaviors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Broers, H.A.T.; Ham, J.R.C.; Broeders, R.; De Silva, P.; Okada, M.

2014-01-01

This explorative research focused on the goal inferences human observers draw based on a robot's behavior, and the extent to which those inferences predict people's behavior in response to that robot. Results show that different robot behaviors cause different response behavior from people.

An aerial radiological survey of the Ames Laboratory and surrounding area, Ames, Iowa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maurer, R.J.

1993-04-01

An aerial radiological survey of the Ames Laboratory and surrounding area in Ames, Iowa, was conducted during the period July 15--25, 1991. The purpose of the survey was to measure and document the terrestrial radiological environment at the Ames Laboratory and the surrounding area for use in effective environmental management and emergency response planning. The aerial survey was flown at an altitude of 200 feet (61 meters) along a series of parallel lines 350 feet (107 meters) apart. The survey encompassed an area of 36 square miles (93 square kilometers) and included the city of Ames, Iowa, and the Iowa State University. The results are reported as exposure rates at 1 meter above ground level (inferred from the aerial data) in the form of a gamma radiation contour map. Typical background exposure rates were found to vary from 7 to 9 microroentgens per hour (μR/h). No anomalous radiation levels were detected at the Ames Laboratory. However, one anomalous radiation source was detected at an industrial storage yard in the city of Ames. In support of the aerial survey, ground-based exposure rate and soil sample measurements were obtained at several sites within the survey perimeter. The results of the aerial and ground-based measurements were found to agree within the expected uncertainty of ±15%

Entropic Inference

OpenAIRE

Caticha, Ariel

2010-01-01

In this tutorial we review the essential arguments behing entropic inference. We focus on the epistemological notion of information and its relation to the Bayesian beliefs of rational agents. The problem of updating from a prior to a posterior probability distribution is tackled through an eliminative induction process that singles out the logarithmic relative entropy as the unique tool for inference. The resulting method of Maximum relative Entropy (ME), includes as special cases both MaxEn...

Learning Convex Inference of Marginals

OpenAIRE

Domke, Justin

2012-01-01

Graphical models trained using maximum likelihood are a common tool for probabilistic inference of marginal distributions. However, this approach suffers difficulties when either the inference process or the model is approximate. In this paper, the inference process is first defined to be the minimization of a convex function, inspired by free energy approximations. Learning is then done directly in terms of the performance of the inference process at univariate marginal prediction. The main ...

Recent developments in Bayesian inference of tokamak plasma equilibria and high-dimensional stochastic quadratures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Von Nessi, G T; Hole, M J

2014-01-01

We present recent results and technical breakthroughs for the Bayesian inference of tokamak equilibria using force-balance as a prior constraint. Issues surrounding model parameter representation and posterior analysis are discussed and addressed. These points motivate the recent advancements embodied in the Bayesian Equilibrium Analysis and Simulation Tool (BEAST) software being presently utilized to study equilibria on the Mega-Ampere Spherical Tokamak (MAST) experiment in the UK (von Nessi et al 2012 J. Phys. A 46 185501). State-of-the-art results of using BEAST to study MAST equilibria are reviewed, with recent code advancements being systematically presented though out the manuscript. (paper)

An aerial radiological survey of the Fort Calhoun Nuclear Power Plant and surrounding area, Fort Calhoun, Nebraska

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-05-01

An aerial radiological survey was conducted over the Fort Calhoun Nuclear Power Plant in Fort Calhoun, Nebraska, during the period June 19 through June 28, 1993. The survey was conducted at an altitude of 150 feet (46 meters) over a 25-square-mile (65-square-kilometer) area centered on the power station. The purpose of the survey was to document the terrestrial gamma radiation environment of the Fort Calhoun Nuclear Power Plant and surrounding area. The results of the aerial survey are reported as inferred gamma radiation exposure rates at 1 meter above ground level in the form of a contour map. Outside the plant boundary, exposure rates were found to vary between 6 and 12 microroentgens per hour and were attributed to naturally-occurring uranium, thorium, and potassium. The aerial data were compared to ground-based benchmark exposure rate measurements and radionuclide assays of soil samples obtained within the survey boundary. The ground-based measurements were found to be in good agreement with those inferred from the aerial measuring system. A previous survey was conducted on August 9 and 10, 1972, before the plant began operation. Exposure rates measured in both surveys were consistent with normal terrestrial background

Probabilistic inductive inference: a survey

OpenAIRE

Ambainis, Andris

2001-01-01

Inductive inference is a recursion-theoretic theory of learning, first developed by E. M. Gold (1967). This paper surveys developments in probabilistic inductive inference. We mainly focus on finite inference of recursive functions, since this simple paradigm has produced the most interesting (and most complex) results.

LAIT: a local ancestry inference toolkit.

Science.gov (United States)

Hui, Daniel; Fang, Zhou; Lin, Jerome; Duan, Qing; Li, Yun; Hu, Ming; Chen, Wei

2017-09-06

Inferring local ancestry in individuals of mixed ancestry has many applications, most notably in identifying disease-susceptible loci that vary among different ethnic groups. Many software packages are available for inferring local ancestry in admixed individuals. However, most of these existing software packages require specific formatted input files and generate output files in various types, yielding practical inconvenience. We developed a tool set, Local Ancestry Inference Toolkit (LAIT), which can convert standardized files into software-specific input file formats as well as standardize and summarize inference results for four popular local ancestry inference software: HAPMIX, LAMP, LAMP-LD, and ELAI. We tested LAIT using both simulated and real data sets and demonstrated that LAIT provides convenience to run multiple local ancestry inference software. In addition, we evaluated the performance of local ancestry software among different supported software packages, mainly focusing on inference accuracy and computational resources used. We provided a toolkit to facilitate the use of local ancestry inference software, especially for users with limited bioinformatics background.

Bayesian statistical inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bruno De Finetti

2017-04-01

Full Text Available This work was translated into English and published in the volume: Bruno De Finetti, Induction and Probability, Biblioteca di Statistica, eds. P. Monari, D. Cocchi, Clueb, Bologna, 1993.Bayesian statistical Inference is one of the last fundamental philosophical papers in which we can find the essential De Finetti's approach to the statistical inference.

Is there a hierarchy of social inferences? The likelihood and speed of inferring intentionality, mind, and personality.

Science.gov (United States)

Malle, Bertram F; Holbrook, Jess

2012-04-01

People interpret behavior by making inferences about agents' intentionality, mind, and personality. Past research studied such inferences 1 at a time; in real life, people make these inferences simultaneously. The present studies therefore examined whether 4 major inferences (intentionality, desire, belief, and personality), elicited simultaneously in response to an observed behavior, might be ordered in a hierarchy of likelihood and speed. To achieve generalizability, the studies included a wide range of stimulus behaviors, presented them verbally and as dynamic videos, and assessed inferences both in a retrieval paradigm (measuring the likelihood and speed of accessing inferences immediately after they were made) and in an online processing paradigm (measuring the speed of forming inferences during behavior observation). Five studies provide evidence for a hierarchy of social inferences-from intentionality and desire to belief to personality-that is stable across verbal and visual presentations and that parallels the order found in developmental and primate research. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

INFERENCE BUILDING BLOCKS

Science.gov (United States)

2018-02-15

expressed a variety of inference techniques on discrete and continuous distributions: exact inference, importance sampling, Metropolis-Hastings (MH...without redoing any math or rewriting any code. And although our main goal is composable reuse, our performance is also good because we can use...control paths. • The Hakaru language can express mixtures of discrete and continuous distributions, but the current disintegration transformation

Practical Bayesian Inference

Science.gov (United States)

Bailer-Jones, Coryn A. L.

2017-04-01

Preface; 1. Probability basics; 2. Estimation and uncertainty; 3. Statistical models and inference; 4. Linear models, least squares, and maximum likelihood; 5. Parameter estimation: single parameter; 6. Parameter estimation: multiple parameters; 7. Approximating distributions; 8. Monte Carlo methods for inference; 9. Parameter estimation: Markov chain Monte Carlo; 10. Frequentist hypothesis testing; 11. Model comparison; 12. Dealing with more complicated problems; References; Index.

A descriptivist approach to trait conceptualization and inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Jonas, Katherine G; Markon, Kristian E

2016-01-01

In their recent article, How Functionalist and Process Approaches to Behavior Can Explain Trait Covariation, Wood, Gardner, and Harms (2015) underscore the need for more process-based understandings of individual differences. At the same time, the article illustrates a common error in the use and interpretation of latent variable models: namely, the misuse of models to arbitrate issues of causation and the nature of latent variables. Here, we explain how latent variables can be understood simply as parsimonious summaries of data, and how statistical inference can be based on choosing those summaries that minimize information required to represent the data using the model. Although Wood, Gardner, and Harms acknowledge this perspective, they underestimate its significance, including its importance to modeling and the conceptualization of psychological measurement. We believe this perspective has important implications for understanding individual differences in a number of domains, including current debates surrounding the role of formative versus reflective latent variables. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Logical inference and evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perey, F.G.

1981-01-01

Most methodologies of evaluation currently used are based upon the theory of statistical inference. It is generally perceived that this theory is not capable of dealing satisfactorily with what are called systematic errors. Theories of logical inference should be capable of treating all of the information available, including that not involving frequency data. A theory of logical inference is presented as an extension of deductive logic via the concept of plausibility and the application of group theory. Some conclusions, based upon the application of this theory to evaluation of data, are also given

Changes in unique hues induced by chromatic surrounds.

Science.gov (United States)

Klauke, Susanne; Wachtler, Thomas

2016-03-01

A chromatic surround can have a strong influence on the perceived hue of a stimulus. We investigated whether chromatic induction has similar effects on the perception of colors that appear pure and unmixed (unique red, green, blue, and yellow) as on other colors. Subjects performed unique hue settings of stimuli in isoluminant surrounds of different chromaticities. Compared with the settings in a neutral gray surround, unique hue settings altered systematically with chromatic surrounds. The amount of induced hue shift depended on the difference between stimulus and surround hues, and was similar for unique hue settings as for settings of nonunique hues. Intraindividual variability in unique hue settings was roughly twice as high as for settings obtained in asymmetric matching experiments, which may reflect the presence of a reference stimulus in the matching task. Variabilities were also larger with chromatic surrounds than with neutral gray surrounds, for both unique hue settings and matching of nonunique hues. The results suggest that the neural representations underlying unique hue percepts are influenced by the same neural processing mechanisms as the percepts of other colors.

Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Jesper

(This text written by Jesper Møller, Aalborg University, is submitted for the collection ‘Stochastic Geometry: Highlights, Interactions and New Perspectives', edited by Wilfrid S. Kendall and Ilya Molchanov, to be published by ClarendonPress, Oxford, and planned to appear as Section 4.1 with the ......(This text written by Jesper Møller, Aalborg University, is submitted for the collection ‘Stochastic Geometry: Highlights, Interactions and New Perspectives', edited by Wilfrid S. Kendall and Ilya Molchanov, to be published by ClarendonPress, Oxford, and planned to appear as Section 4.......1 with the title ‘Inference'.) This contribution concerns statistical inference for parametric models used in stochastic geometry and based on quick and simple simulation free procedures as well as more comprehensive methods using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Due to space limitations the focus...

Lower complexity bounds for lifted inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2015-01-01

instances of the model. Numerous approaches for such “lifted inference” techniques have been proposed. While it has been demonstrated that these techniques will lead to significantly more efficient inference on some specific models, there are only very recent and still quite restricted results that show...... the feasibility of lifted inference on certain syntactically defined classes of models. Lower complexity bounds that imply some limitations for the feasibility of lifted inference on more expressive model classes were established earlier in Jaeger (2000; Jaeger, M. 2000. On the complexity of inference about...... that under the assumption that NETIME≠ETIME, there is no polynomial lifted inference algorithm for knowledge bases of weighted, quantifier-, and function-free formulas. Further strengthening earlier results, this is also shown to hold for approximate inference and for knowledge bases not containing...

Non-Fourier Heat Transfer with Phonons and Electrons in a Circular Thin Layer Surrounding a Hot Nanodevice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vito Antonio Cimmelli

2015-07-01

Full Text Available A nonlocal model for heat transfer with phonons and electrons is applied to infer the steady-state radial temperature profile in a circular layer surrounding an inner hot component. Such a profile, following by the numerical solution of the heat equation, predicts that the temperature behaves in an anomalous way, since for radial distances from the heat source smaller than the mean-free path of phonons and electrons, it increases for increasing distances. The compatibility of this temperature behavior with the second law of thermodynamics is investigated by calculating numerically the local entropy production as a function of the radial distance. It turns out that such a production is positive and strictly decreasing with the radial distance.

Variations on Bayesian Prediction and Inference

Science.gov (United States)

2016-05-09

inference 2.2.1 Background There are a number of statistical inference problems that are not generally formulated via a full probability model...problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND...the problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability model/likelihood which can be an obstacle

Adaptive Inference on General Graphical Models

OpenAIRE

Acar, Umut A.; Ihler, Alexander T.; Mettu, Ramgopal; Sumer, Ozgur

2012-01-01

Many algorithms and applications involve repeatedly solving variations of the same inference problem; for example we may want to introduce new evidence to the model or perform updates to conditional dependencies. The goal of adaptive inference is to take advantage of what is preserved in the model and perform inference more rapidly than from scratch. In this paper, we describe techniques for adaptive inference on general graphs that support marginal computation and updates to the conditional ...

The inference from a single case: moral versus scientific inferences in implementing new biotechnologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Hofmann, B

2008-06-01

Are there similarities between scientific and moral inference? This is the key question in this article. It takes as its point of departure an instance of one person's story in the media changing both Norwegian public opinion and a brand-new Norwegian law prohibiting the use of saviour siblings. The case appears to falsify existing norms and to establish new ones. The analysis of this case reveals similarities in the modes of inference in science and morals, inasmuch as (a) a single case functions as a counter-example to an existing rule; (b) there is a common presupposition of stability, similarity and order, which makes it possible to reason from a few cases to a general rule; and (c) this makes it possible to hold things together and retain order. In science, these modes of inference are referred to as falsification, induction and consistency. In morals, they have a variety of other names. Hence, even without abandoning the fact-value divide, there appear to be similarities between inference in science and inference in morals, which may encourage communication across the boundaries between "the two cultures" and which are relevant to medical humanities.

Forest Fragments Surrounded by Sugar Cane Are More Inhospitable to Terrestrial Amphibian Abundance Than Fragments Surrounded by Pasture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paula Eveline Ribeiro D’Anunciação

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In recent years, there has been increasing interest in matrix-type influence on forest fragments. Terrestrial amphibians are good bioindicators for this kind of research because of low vagility and high philopatry. This study compared richness, abundance, and species composition of terrestrial amphibians through pitfall traps in two sets of semideciduous seasonal forest fragments in southeastern Brazil, according to the predominant surrounding matrix (sugar cane and pasture. There were no differences in richness, but fragments surrounded by sugar cane had the lowest abundance of amphibians, whereas fragments surrounded by pastures had greater abundance. The most abundant species, Rhinella ornata, showed no biometric differences between fragment groups but like many other amphibians sampled showed very low numbers of individuals in fragments dominated by sugar cane fields. Our data indicate that the sugar cane matrix negatively influences the community of amphibians present in fragments surrounded by this type of land use.

Introductory statistical inference

CERN Document Server

Mukhopadhyay, Nitis

2014-01-01

This gracefully organized text reveals the rigorous theory of probability and statistical inference in the style of a tutorial, using worked examples, exercises, figures, tables, and computer simulations to develop and illustrate concepts. Drills and boxed summaries emphasize and reinforce important ideas and special techniques.Beginning with a review of the basic concepts and methods in probability theory, moments, and moment generating functions, the author moves to more intricate topics. Introductory Statistical Inference studies multivariate random variables, exponential families of dist

Active inference, communication and hermeneutics.

Science.gov (United States)

Friston, Karl J; Frith, Christopher D

2015-07-01

Hermeneutics refers to interpretation and translation of text (typically ancient scriptures) but also applies to verbal and non-verbal communication. In a psychological setting it nicely frames the problem of inferring the intended content of a communication. In this paper, we offer a solution to the problem of neural hermeneutics based upon active inference. In active inference, action fulfils predictions about how we will behave (e.g., predicting we will speak). Crucially, these predictions can be used to predict both self and others--during speaking and listening respectively. Active inference mandates the suppression of prediction errors by updating an internal model that generates predictions--both at fast timescales (through perceptual inference) and slower timescales (through perceptual learning). If two agents adopt the same model, then--in principle--they can predict each other and minimise their mutual prediction errors. Heuristically, this ensures they are singing from the same hymn sheet. This paper builds upon recent work on active inference and communication to illustrate perceptual learning using simulated birdsongs. Our focus here is the neural hermeneutics implicit in learning, where communication facilitates long-term changes in generative models that are trying to predict each other. In other words, communication induces perceptual learning and enables others to (literally) change our minds and vice versa. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Visualization of simulated urban spaces: inferring parameterized generation of streets, parcels, and aerial imagery.

Science.gov (United States)

Vanegas, Carlos A; Aliaga, Daniel G; Benes, Bedrich; Waddell, Paul

2009-01-01

Urban simulation models and their visualization are used to help regional planning agencies evaluate alternative transportation investments, land use regulations, and environmental protection policies. Typical urban simulations provide spatially distributed data about number of inhabitants, land prices, traffic, and other variables. In this article, we build on a synergy of urban simulation, urban visualization, and computer graphics to automatically infer an urban layout for any time step of the simulation sequence. In addition to standard visualization tools, our method gathers data of the original street network, parcels, and aerial imagery and uses the available simulation results to infer changes to the original urban layout and produce a new and plausible layout for the simulation results. In contrast with previous work, our approach automatically updates the layout based on changes in the simulation data and thus can scale to a large simulation over many years. The method in this article offers a substantial step forward in building integrated visualization and behavioral simulation systems for use in community visioning, planning, and policy analysis. We demonstrate our method on several real cases using a 200 GB database for a 16,300 km2 area surrounding Seattle.

Optimization methods for logical inference

CERN Document Server

Chandru, Vijay

2011-01-01

Merging logic and mathematics in deductive inference-an innovative, cutting-edge approach. Optimization methods for logical inference? Absolutely, say Vijay Chandru and John Hooker, two major contributors to this rapidly expanding field. And even though ""solving logical inference problems with optimization methods may seem a bit like eating sauerkraut with chopsticks. . . it is the mathematical structure of a problem that determines whether an optimization model can help solve it, not the context in which the problem occurs."" Presenting powerful, proven optimization techniques for logic in

Enhancement of Afterimage Colors by Surrounding Contours

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takao Sato

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Presenting luminance contours surrounding the adapted areas in test phase enhances color afterimages in both duration and color appearance. The presence of surrounding contour is crucial to some color phenomenon such as van Lier's afterimage, but the contour-effect itself has not been seriously examined. In this paper, we compared the contour-effect to color afterimages and to actually colored patches to examine the nature of color information subserving color-aftereffect. In the experiment, observers were adapted for 1 sec to a small colored square (red, green, yellow, or blue presented on a gray background. Then, a test field either with or without surrounding contour was presented. Observers matched the color of a test-patch located near the afterimage to the color of afterimage. It was found that the saturation of negative afterimage was almost doubled by the presence of surrounding contours. There was no effect of luminance contrast or polarity of contours. In contrast, no enhancement of saturation by surrounding contours was observed for actually colored patches even though the colors of patches were equalized to that of afterimage without contours. This dissociation in the contour-effect demonstrates the crucial difference between the color information for aftereffects and for ordinary bottom-up color perception.

Inference in `poor` languages

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Petrov, S.

1996-10-01

Languages with a solvable implication problem but without complete and consistent systems of inference rules (`poor` languages) are considered. The problem of existence of finite complete and consistent inference rule system for a ``poor`` language is stated independently of the language or rules syntax. Several properties of the problem arc proved. An application of results to the language of join dependencies is given.

EI: A Program for Ecological Inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gary King

2004-09-01

Full Text Available The program EI provides a method of inferring individual behavior from aggregate data. It implements the statistical procedures, diagnostics, and graphics from the book A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data (King 1997. Ecological inference, as traditionally defined, is the process of using aggregate (i.e., "ecological" data to infer discrete individual-level relationships of interest when individual-level data are not available. Ecological inferences are required in political science research when individual-level surveys are unavailable (e.g., local or comparative electoral politics, unreliable (racial politics, insufficient (political geography, or infeasible (political history. They are also required in numerous areas of ma jor significance in public policy (e.g., for applying the Voting Rights Act and other academic disciplines ranging from epidemiology and marketing to sociology and quantitative history.

Chromatic induction from surrounding stimuli under perceptual suppression.

Science.gov (United States)

Horiuchi, Koji; Kuriki, Ichiro; Tokunaga, Rumi; Matsumiya, Kazumichi; Shioiri, Satoshi

2014-11-01

The appearance of colors can be affected by their spatiotemporal context. The shift in color appearance according to the surrounding colors is called color induction or chromatic induction; in particular, the shift in opponent color of the surround is called chromatic contrast. To investigate whether chromatic induction occurs even when the chromatic surround is imperceptible, we measured chromatic induction during interocular suppression. A multicolor or uniform color field was presented as the surround stimulus, and a colored continuous flash suppression (CFS) stimulus was presented to the dominant eye of each subject. The subjects were asked to report the appearance of the test field only when the stationary surround stimulus is invisible by interocular suppression with CFS. The resulting shifts in color appearance due to chromatic induction were significant even under the conditions of interocular suppression for all surround stimuli. The magnitude of chromatic induction differed with the surround conditions, and this difference was preserved regardless of the viewing conditions. The chromatic induction effect was reduced by CFS, in proportion to the magnitude of chromatic induction under natural (i.e., no-CFS) viewing conditions. According to an analysis with linear model fitting, we revealed the presence of at least two kinds of subprocesses for chromatic induction that reside at higher and lower levels than the site of interocular suppression. One mechanism yields different degrees of chromatic induction based on the complexity of the surround, which is unaffected by interocular suppression, while the other mechanism changes its output with interocular suppression acting as a gain control. Our results imply that the total chromatic induction effect is achieved via a linear summation of outputs from mechanisms that reside at different levels of visual processing.

On the criticality of inferred models

Science.gov (United States)

Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Marsili, Matteo

2011-10-01

Advanced inference techniques allow one to reconstruct a pattern of interaction from high dimensional data sets, from probing simultaneously thousands of units of extended systems—such as cells, neural tissues and financial markets. We focus here on the statistical properties of inferred models and argue that inference procedures are likely to yield models which are close to singular values of parameters, akin to critical points in physics where phase transitions occur. These are points where the response of physical systems to external perturbations, as measured by the susceptibility, is very large and diverges in the limit of infinite size. We show that the reparameterization invariant metrics in the space of probability distributions of these models (the Fisher information) are directly related to the susceptibility of the inferred model. As a result, distinguishable models tend to accumulate close to critical points, where the susceptibility diverges in infinite systems. This region is the one where the estimate of inferred parameters is most stable. In order to illustrate these points, we discuss inference of interacting point processes with application to financial data and show that sensible choices of observation time scales naturally yield models which are close to criticality.

On the criticality of inferred models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Marsili, Matteo

2011-01-01

Advanced inference techniques allow one to reconstruct a pattern of interaction from high dimensional data sets, from probing simultaneously thousands of units of extended systems—such as cells, neural tissues and financial markets. We focus here on the statistical properties of inferred models and argue that inference procedures are likely to yield models which are close to singular values of parameters, akin to critical points in physics where phase transitions occur. These are points where the response of physical systems to external perturbations, as measured by the susceptibility, is very large and diverges in the limit of infinite size. We show that the reparameterization invariant metrics in the space of probability distributions of these models (the Fisher information) are directly related to the susceptibility of the inferred model. As a result, distinguishable models tend to accumulate close to critical points, where the susceptibility diverges in infinite systems. This region is the one where the estimate of inferred parameters is most stable. In order to illustrate these points, we discuss inference of interacting point processes with application to financial data and show that sensible choices of observation time scales naturally yield models which are close to criticality

An Inference Language for Imaging

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedemonte, Stefano; Catana, Ciprian; Van Leemput, Koen

2014-01-01

We introduce iLang, a language and software framework for probabilistic inference. The iLang framework enables the definition of directed and undirected probabilistic graphical models and the automated synthesis of high performance inference algorithms for imaging applications. The iLang framewor...

Comparison of Socioeconomic Factors between Surrounding and Non-Surrounding Areas of the Qinghai–Tibet Railway before and after Its Construction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shicheng Li

2016-08-01

Full Text Available As the world’s highest railway, and the longest highland railway, the Qinghai–Tibet Railway (QTR has been paid considerable attention by researchers. However, most attention has been paid to the ecological and environmental issues affecting it, and sustainable ecological, social, and economic development-related studies of the QTR are rare. In this study, by analyzing the passenger traffic, freight traffic, passenger-kilometers, and freight-kilometers of the QTR for the period 1982–2013 and the transport structure of the Tibetan Plateau (TP for 1990–2013, the evolutionary process of the transport system in the TP following the construction of the QTR has been revealed. Subsequently, by comparing Gross Domestic Product (GDP, population, industrial structure, and urbanization level at the county and 1 km scales between surrounding and non-surrounding areas of the QTR, the differences in socioeconomic performance before and after its construction were detected. The results show that (1 in the TP, the highway-dominated transport system will break up and an integrated and sustainable transport system will form; (2 at the county scale, the annual growth rates of GDP of counties surrounding the QTR were greater than those of non-surrounding counties for the period 2000–2010. At the 1 km scale, following the opening of the completed line, the GDP of surrounding areas had a greater growth rate than before; (3 analysis at the county and 1 km scales indicated that population was not aggregated into the surrounding areas of the QTR in the period 2000–2010; (4 in terms of industrial structure, the proportion of primary industry decreased continuously, while the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries increased overall in the period 1984–2012. The QTR had no obvious impact on changes in the urbanization level of its surrounding areas.

Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Jesper

2010-01-01

Chapter 9: This contribution concerns statistical inference for parametric models used in stochastic geometry and based on quick and simple simulation free procedures as well as more comprehensive methods based on a maximum likelihood or Bayesian approach combined with markov chain Monte Carlo...... (MCMC) techniques. Due to space limitations the focus is on spatial point processes....

Feature Inference Learning and Eyetracking

Science.gov (United States)

Rehder, Bob; Colner, Robert M.; Hoffman, Aaron B.

2009-01-01

Besides traditional supervised classification learning, people can learn categories by inferring the missing features of category members. It has been proposed that feature inference learning promotes learning a category's internal structure (e.g., its typical features and interfeature correlations) whereas classification promotes the learning of…

Forward and backward inference in spatial cognition.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Will D Penny

Full Text Available This paper shows that the various computations underlying spatial cognition can be implemented using statistical inference in a single probabilistic model. Inference is implemented using a common set of 'lower-level' computations involving forward and backward inference over time. For example, to estimate where you are in a known environment, forward inference is used to optimally combine location estimates from path integration with those from sensory input. To decide which way to turn to reach a goal, forward inference is used to compute the likelihood of reaching that goal under each option. To work out which environment you are in, forward inference is used to compute the likelihood of sensory observations under the different hypotheses. For reaching sensory goals that require a chaining together of decisions, forward inference can be used to compute a state trajectory that will lead to that goal, and backward inference to refine the route and estimate control signals that produce the required trajectory. We propose that these computations are reflected in recent findings of pattern replay in the mammalian brain. Specifically, that theta sequences reflect decision making, theta flickering reflects model selection, and remote replay reflects route and motor planning. We also propose a mapping of the above computational processes onto lateral and medial entorhinal cortex and hippocampus.

A formal model of interpersonal inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael eMoutoussis

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction: We propose that active Bayesian inference – a general framework for decision-making – can equally be applied to interpersonal exchanges. Social cognition, however, entails special challenges. We address these challenges through a novel formulation of a formal model and demonstrate its psychological significance. Method: We review relevant literature, especially with regards to interpersonal representations, formulate a mathematical model and present a simulation study. The model accommodates normative models from utility theory and places them within the broader setting of Bayesian inference. Crucially, we endow people's prior beliefs, into which utilities are absorbed, with preferences of self and others. The simulation illustrates the model's dynamics and furnishes elementary predictions of the theory. Results: 1. Because beliefs about self and others inform both the desirability and plausibility of outcomes, in this framework interpersonal representations become beliefs that have to be actively inferred. This inference, akin to 'mentalising' in the psychological literature, is based upon the outcomes of interpersonal exchanges. 2. We show how some well-known social-psychological phenomena (e.g. self-serving biases can be explained in terms of active interpersonal inference. 3. Mentalising naturally entails Bayesian updating of how people value social outcomes. Crucially this includes inference about one’s own qualities and preferences. Conclusion: We inaugurate a Bayes optimal framework for modelling intersubject variability in mentalising during interpersonal exchanges. Here, interpersonal representations are endowed with explicit functional and affective properties. We suggest the active inference framework lends itself to the study of psychiatric conditions where mentalising is distorted.

Distributional Inference

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kroese, A.H.; van der Meulen, E.A.; Poortema, Klaas; Schaafsma, W.

1995-01-01

The making of statistical inferences in distributional form is conceptionally complicated because the epistemic 'probabilities' assigned are mixtures of fact and fiction. In this respect they are essentially different from 'physical' or 'frequency-theoretic' probabilities. The distributional form is

Continuous Integrated Invariant Inference, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed project will develop a new technique for invariant inference and embed this and other current invariant inference and checking techniques in an...

Estimating uncertainty of inference for validation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Langenbrunner, James R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

2010-09-30

We present a validation process based upon the concept that validation is an inference-making activity. This has always been true, but the association has not been as important before as it is now. Previously, theory had been confirmed by more data, and predictions were possible based on data. The process today is to infer from theory to code and from code to prediction, making the role of prediction somewhat automatic, and a machine function. Validation is defined as determining the degree to which a model and code is an accurate representation of experimental test data. Imbedded in validation is the intention to use the computer code to predict. To predict is to accept the conclusion that an observable final state will manifest; therefore, prediction is an inference whose goodness relies on the validity of the code. Quantifying the uncertainty of a prediction amounts to quantifying the uncertainty of validation, and this involves the characterization of uncertainties inherent in theory/models/codes and the corresponding data. An introduction to inference making and its associated uncertainty is provided as a foundation for the validation problem. A mathematical construction for estimating the uncertainty in the validation inference is then presented, including a possibility distribution constructed to represent the inference uncertainty for validation under uncertainty. The estimation of inference uncertainty for validation is illustrated using data and calculations from Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). The ICF measurements of neutron yield and ion temperature were obtained for direct-drive inertial fusion capsules at the Omega laser facility. The glass capsules, containing the fusion gas, were systematically selected with the intent of establishing a reproducible baseline of high-yield 10{sup 13}-10{sup 14} neutron output. The deuterium-tritium ratio in these experiments was varied to study its influence upon yield. This paper on validation inference is the

Quantum-Like Representation of Non-Bayesian Inference

Science.gov (United States)

Asano, M.; Basieva, I.; Khrennikov, A.; Ohya, M.; Tanaka, Y.

2013-01-01

This research is related to the problem of "irrational decision making or inference" that have been discussed in cognitive psychology. There are some experimental studies, and these statistical data cannot be described by classical probability theory. The process of decision making generating these data cannot be reduced to the classical Bayesian inference. For this problem, a number of quantum-like coginitive models of decision making was proposed. Our previous work represented in a natural way the classical Bayesian inference in the frame work of quantum mechanics. By using this representation, in this paper, we try to discuss the non-Bayesian (irrational) inference that is biased by effects like the quantum interference. Further, we describe "psychological factor" disturbing "rationality" as an "environment" correlating with the "main system" of usual Bayesian inference.

Bayesian Inference Methods for Sparse Channel Estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Niels Lovmand

2013-01-01

This thesis deals with sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) with application to radio channel estimation. As opposed to the classical approach for sparse signal representation, we focus on the problem of inferring complex signals. Our investigations within SBL constitute the basis for the development...... of Bayesian inference algorithms for sparse channel estimation. Sparse inference methods aim at finding the sparse representation of a signal given in some overcomplete dictionary of basis vectors. Within this context, one of our main contributions to the field of SBL is a hierarchical representation...... analysis of the complex prior representation, where we show that the ability to induce sparse estimates of a given prior heavily depends on the inference method used and, interestingly, whether real or complex variables are inferred. We also show that the Bayesian estimators derived from the proposed...

Statistical inference an integrated Bayesianlikelihood approach

CERN Document Server

Aitkin, Murray

2010-01-01

Filling a gap in current Bayesian theory, Statistical Inference: An Integrated Bayesian/Likelihood Approach presents a unified Bayesian treatment of parameter inference and model comparisons that can be used with simple diffuse prior specifications. This novel approach provides new solutions to difficult model comparison problems and offers direct Bayesian counterparts of frequentist t-tests and other standard statistical methods for hypothesis testing.After an overview of the competing theories of statistical inference, the book introduces the Bayes/likelihood approach used throughout. It pre

Monitoring program of surrounding of the NPP SE-EBO

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dobis, L.; Kostial, J.

1997-01-01

The paper dealt with monitoring program of radiation control of surrounding of the NPP Bohunice, which has the aim: (1) to ensure the control of influence of work of the NPP Bohunice on the environment in their surrounding; (2) to ensure the back-ground for regular brief of control and supervisory organs about condition of the environment in surrounding of the NPP Bohunice; (3) to maintain the expected technical level of control of the NPP Bohunice and to exploit optimally the technical means; (4) to solicit permanently the data about the radioactivity of environment in surrounding of the NPP Bohunice for forming of files of the data; (5) to exploit purposefully the technical equipment, technical workers and to maintain their in permanent emergency and technical eligibility for the case of the breakdown; (6) to obtain permanently the files of the values for qualification of the reference levels. This program of monitoring includes the radiation control of surrounding of the NPP Bohunice, in the time of normal work of power-station's blocks, inclusively of all types of trouble-shooting and repairer works in surrounding of the NPP Bohunice, up to distance 20 km from power-station. The monitoring includes: outlets from the NPP Bohunice, monitoring of radiation characteristics in surrounding of the NPP Bohunice, (aerosols, fall-outs, soil), the links of food chains: (grass and fodder, milk, agriculture products), hydrosphere in surrounding (surface waters, drink water, bores of radiation control in complex of the NPP Bohunice, components of the hydrosphere), measurement of radiation from external sources (measurement of the dose rates, measurement of the doses [sk

The lithospheric structure beneath Ireland and surrounding areas from integrated geophysical-petrological modelling of magnetic and other geophysical data

Science.gov (United States)

Baykiev, E.; Guerri, M.; Fullea, J.

2017-12-01

The availability of unprecedented resolution aeromagnetic data in Ireland (Tellus project, http://www.tellus.ie/) in conjunction with new satellite magnetic data (e.g., ESÁs Swarm mission) has opened the possibility of detailed modelling of the Irish subsurface magnetic structure. A detailed knowledge of the magnetic characteristics (susceptibility, magnetite content) of the crust is relevant for a number of purposes, including geological mapping and mineral and geothermal energy prospection. In this work we model the magnetic structure of Ireland and surrounding areas using primarily aeromagnetic and satellite observations but also other geophysical data sets. To this aim we use a geophysical-petrological modelling tool (LitMod) in which key properties of rocks (i.e., density, electrical conductivity and seismic velocities) that can be inferred from geophysical data (gravity, seismic, EM) are self consistently determined based on the thermochemical conditions (using the software Perple_X). In contrast to the mantle, where thermodynamic equilibrium is prevalent, in the crust metastable conditions are dominant, i.e. rock properties may not be representative of the current, in situ, temperature and pressure conditions. Instead, the rock properties inferred from geophysical data may be reflecting the mineralogy stable at rock formation conditions. In addition, temperature plays a major role in the distribution of the long wavelength crustal magnetic anomalies. Magnetite retains its magnetic properties below its Curie temperature (585 ºC) and the depth of Curie's isotherm provides an estimate of the thickness of the magnetic crust. Hence, a precise knowledge of the crustal geotherm is required to consistently model crustal magnetic anomalies. In this work LitMod has been modified to account for metastable crustal lithology, to predict susceptibility in the areas below Curie's temperature, and to compute magnetic anomalies based on a magnetic tesseroid approach. The

Inference Attacks and Control on Database Structures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhamed Turkanovic

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Today’s databases store information with sensitivity levels that range from public to highly sensitive, hence ensuring confidentiality can be highly important, but also requires costly control. This paper focuses on the inference problem on different database structures. It presents possible treats on privacy with relation to the inference, and control methods for mitigating these treats. The paper shows that using only access control, without any inference control is inadequate, since these models are unable to protect against indirect data access. Furthermore, it covers new inference problems which rise from the dimensions of new technologies like XML, semantics, etc.

Type Inference with Inequalities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schwartzbach, Michael Ignatieff

1991-01-01

of (monotonic) inequalities on the types of variables and expressions. A general result about systems of inequalities over semilattices yields a solvable form. We distinguish between deciding typability (the existence of solutions) and type inference (the computation of a minimal solution). In our case, both......Type inference can be phrased as constraint-solving over types. We consider an implicitly typed language equipped with recursive types, multiple inheritance, 1st order parametric polymorphism, and assignments. Type correctness is expressed as satisfiability of a possibly infinite collection...

Stimulus size dependence of hue changes induced by chromatic surrounds.

Science.gov (United States)

Kellner, Christian Johannes; Wachtler, Thomas

2016-03-01

A chromatic surround induces a change in the perceived hue of a stimulus. This shift in hue depends on the chromatic difference between the stimulus and the surround. We investigated how chromatic induction varies with stimulus size and whether the size dependence depends on the surround hue. Subjects performed asymmetric matching of color stimuli with different sizes in surrounds of different chromaticities. Generally, induced hue shifts decreased with increasing stimulus size. This decrease was quantitatively different for different surround hues. However, when size effects were normalized to an overall induction strength, the chromatic specificity was largely reduced. The separability of inducer chromaticity and stimulus size suggests that these effects are mediated by different neural mechanisms.

Flash propagation and inferred charge structure relative to radar-observed ice alignment signatures in a small Florida mesoscale convective system

Science.gov (United States)

Biggerstaff, Michael I.; Zounes, Zackery; Addison Alford, A.; Carrie, Gordon D.; Pilkey, John T.; Uman, Martin A.; Jordan, Douglas M.

2017-08-01

A series of vertical cross sections taken through a small mesoscale convective system observed over Florida by the dual-polarimetric SMART radar were combined with VHF radiation source locations from a lightning mapping array (LMA) to examine the lightning channel propagation paths relative to the radar-observed ice alignment signatures associated with regions of negative specific differential phase (KDP). Additionally, charge layers inferred from analysis of LMA sources were related to the ice alignment signature. It was found that intracloud flashes initiated near the upper zero-KDP boundary surrounding the negative KDP region. The zero-KDP boundary also delineated the propagation path of the lightning channel with the negative leaders following the upper boundary and positive leaders following the lower boundary. Very few LMA sources were found in the negative KDP region. We conclude that rapid dual-polarimetric radar observations can diagnose strong electric fields and may help identify surrounding regions of charge.

Explaining preferences for home surroundings and locations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Hans Skifter

2011-01-01

This article is based on a survey carried out in Denmark that asked a random sample of the population about their preferences for home surroundings and locations. It shows that the characteristics of social surroundings are very important and can be divided into three independent dimensions......: avoiding social nuisances, preferring social homogeneity and living close to one’s social network and place of origin. The study shows that most people have many detailed preferences, whereas some have very few. This confirms an earlier theory that some people are very connected to certain places...... with given characteristics and thus do not have priorities regarding home surroundings and locations. For others, mostly young people and singles, home is just a place to sleep and relax, whereas life is lived elsewhere. For this group, there are only preferences for location and there are few specific...

HIV behavioural surveillance among refugees and surrounding host ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

We used a standardised behavioural surveillance survey (BSS), modified to be directly relevant to populations in conflict and post-conflict settings as well as to their surrounding host populations, to survey the populations of a refugee settlement in south-western Uganda and its surrounding area. Two-stage probability ...

Inference in models with adaptive learning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chevillon, G.; Massmann, M.; Mavroeidis, S.

2010-01-01

Identification of structural parameters in models with adaptive learning can be weak, causing standard inference procedures to become unreliable. Learning also induces persistent dynamics, and this makes the distribution of estimators and test statistics non-standard. Valid inference can be

Fiducial inference - A Neyman-Pearson interpretation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Salome, D; VonderLinden, W; Dose,; Fischer, R; Preuss, R

1999-01-01

Fisher's fiducial argument is a tool for deriving inferences in the form of a probability distribution on the parameter space, not based on Bayes's Theorem. Lindley established that in exceptional situations fiducial inferences coincide with posterior distributions; in the other situations fiducial

Uncertainty in prediction and in inference

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hilgevoord, J.; Uffink, J.

1991-01-01

The concepts of uncertainty in prediction and inference are introduced and illustrated using the diffraction of light as an example. The close re-lationship between the concepts of uncertainty in inference and resolving power is noted. A general quantitative measure of uncertainty in

Real-time inference of word relevance from electroencephalogram and eye gaze

Science.gov (United States)

Wenzel, M. A.; Bogojeski, M.; Blankertz, B.

2017-10-01

Objective. Brain-computer interfaces can potentially map the subjective relevance of the visual surroundings, based on neural activity and eye movements, in order to infer the interest of a person in real-time. Approach. Readers looked for words belonging to one out of five semantic categories, while a stream of words passed at different locations on the screen. It was estimated in real-time which words and thus which semantic category interested each reader based on the electroencephalogram (EEG) and the eye gaze. Main results. Words that were subjectively relevant could be decoded online from the signals. The estimation resulted in an average rank of 1.62 for the category of interest among the five categories after a hundred words had been read. Significance. It was demonstrated that the interest of a reader can be inferred online from EEG and eye tracking signals, which can potentially be used in novel types of adaptive software, which enrich the interaction by adding implicit information about the interest of the user to the explicit interaction. The study is characterised by the following novelties. Interpretation with respect to the word meaning was necessary in contrast to the usual practice in brain-computer interfacing where stimulus recognition is sufficient. The typical counting task was avoided because it would not be sensible for implicit relevance detection. Several words were displayed at the same time, in contrast to the typical sequences of single stimuli. Neural activity was related with eye tracking to the words, which were scanned without restrictions on the eye movements.

Polynomial Chaos Surrogates for Bayesian Inference

KAUST Repository

Le Maitre, Olivier

2016-01-06

The Bayesian inference is a popular probabilistic method to solve inverse problems, such as the identification of field parameter in a PDE model. The inference rely on the Bayes rule to update the prior density of the sought field, from observations, and derive its posterior distribution. In most cases the posterior distribution has no explicit form and has to be sampled, for instance using a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo method. In practice the prior field parameter is decomposed and truncated (e.g. by means of Karhunen- Lo´eve decomposition) to recast the inference problem into the inference of a finite number of coordinates. Although proved effective in many situations, the Bayesian inference as sketched above faces several difficulties requiring improvements. First, sampling the posterior can be a extremely costly task as it requires multiple resolutions of the PDE model for different values of the field parameter. Second, when the observations are not very much informative, the inferred parameter field can highly depends on its prior which can be somehow arbitrary. These issues have motivated the introduction of reduced modeling or surrogates for the (approximate) determination of the parametrized PDE solution and hyperparameters in the description of the prior field. Our contribution focuses on recent developments in these two directions: the acceleration of the posterior sampling by means of Polynomial Chaos expansions and the efficient treatment of parametrized covariance functions for the prior field. We also discuss the possibility of making such approach adaptive to further improve its efficiency.

Interactive Instruction in Bayesian Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khan, Azam; Breslav, Simon; Hornbæk, Kasper

2018-01-01

An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction. These pri......An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction....... These principles concern coherence, personalization, signaling, segmenting, multimedia, spatial contiguity, and pretraining. Principles of self-explanation and interactivity are also applied. Four experiments on the Mammography Problem showed that these principles help participants answer the questions...... that an instructional approach to improving human performance in Bayesian inference is a promising direction....

Aerial radiological survey of the Feed Materials Production Center and surrounding area, Fernald, Ohio. Date of survey: April 1985

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1985-10-01

An aerial radiological survey was performed over the area surrounding the Feed Materials Production Center, located near Fernald, Ohio, during the period April 24 to 27, 1985. The survey covered a 70-square-kilometer (27-square-mile) area centered on the plant. The highest exposure rates, in excess of 0.35 milliroentgens per hour (mR/h), were inferred from the data measured directly over the plant. This radiation was due to the presence of nuclides which were consistent with normal plant operations. For the remainder of the survey area, the inferred radiation exposure rates, varying from 6 to 12 microroentgens per hour (μR/h), were due to naturally-occurring potassium, uranium, thorium, and daughter products. The reported exposure rate values include an estimated cosmic ray contribution of 3.7μR/h. Ground-based measurements, conducted during the time of the aerial survey, were compared to the aerial results. Pressurized ionization chamber readings and a group of soil samples were acquired at several locations within the survey area. The exposure rate values obtained from these measurements were in agreement with the inferred aerial results. Soil sample results showed several areas just outside the site boundary with slightly elevated amounts of U-238. The levels, however, were well below the detection limit of the aerial system. The only off-site area that showed apparent above background activity in the aerial data was directly west of the storage silos. The symmetric shape of the contours, however, suggests that these elevated levels are due to ''shine'' from material stored on-site in the silos and not to actual off-site contamination. Detailed comparison of the 1985 aerial survey data with a previous survey conducted in 1976 showed no significant change in any area outside the plant boundary. 6 refs., 9 figs., 3 tabs

Inferring Phylogenetic Networks Using PhyloNet.

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, Dingqiao; Yu, Yun; Zhu, Jiafan; Nakhleh, Luay

2018-07-01

PhyloNet was released in 2008 as a software package for representing and analyzing phylogenetic networks. At the time of its release, the main functionalities in PhyloNet consisted of measures for comparing network topologies and a single heuristic for reconciling gene trees with a species tree. Since then, PhyloNet has grown significantly. The software package now includes a wide array of methods for inferring phylogenetic networks from data sets of unlinked loci while accounting for both reticulation (e.g., hybridization) and incomplete lineage sorting. In particular, PhyloNet now allows for maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian inference of phylogenetic networks from gene tree estimates. Furthermore, Bayesian inference directly from sequence data (sequence alignments or biallelic markers) is implemented. Maximum parsimony is based on an extension of the "minimizing deep coalescences" criterion to phylogenetic networks, whereas maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference are based on the multispecies network coalescent. All methods allow for multiple individuals per species. As computing the likelihood of a phylogenetic network is computationally hard, PhyloNet allows for evaluation and inference of networks using a pseudolikelihood measure. PhyloNet summarizes the results of the various analyzes and generates phylogenetic networks in the extended Newick format that is readily viewable by existing visualization software.

Active inference and learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Friston, Karl; FitzGerald, Thomas; Rigoli, Francesco; Schwartenbeck, Philipp; O Doherty, John; Pezzulo, Giovanni

2016-09-01

This paper offers an active inference account of choice behaviour and learning. It focuses on the distinction between goal-directed and habitual behaviour and how they contextualise each other. We show that habits emerge naturally (and autodidactically) from sequential policy optimisation when agents are equipped with state-action policies. In active inference, behaviour has explorative (epistemic) and exploitative (pragmatic) aspects that are sensitive to ambiguity and risk respectively, where epistemic (ambiguity-resolving) behaviour enables pragmatic (reward-seeking) behaviour and the subsequent emergence of habits. Although goal-directed and habitual policies are usually associated with model-based and model-free schemes, we find the more important distinction is between belief-free and belief-based schemes. The underlying (variational) belief updating provides a comprehensive (if metaphorical) process theory for several phenomena, including the transfer of dopamine responses, reversal learning, habit formation and devaluation. Finally, we show that active inference reduces to a classical (Bellman) scheme, in the absence of ambiguity. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Active Inference, homeostatic regulation and adaptive behavioural control.

Science.gov (United States)

Pezzulo, Giovanni; Rigoli, Francesco; Friston, Karl

2015-11-01

We review a theory of homeostatic regulation and adaptive behavioural control within the Active Inference framework. Our aim is to connect two research streams that are usually considered independently; namely, Active Inference and associative learning theories of animal behaviour. The former uses a probabilistic (Bayesian) formulation of perception and action, while the latter calls on multiple (Pavlovian, habitual, goal-directed) processes for homeostatic and behavioural control. We offer a synthesis these classical processes and cast them as successive hierarchical contextualisations of sensorimotor constructs, using the generative models that underpin Active Inference. This dissolves any apparent mechanistic distinction between the optimization processes that mediate classical control or learning. Furthermore, we generalize the scope of Active Inference by emphasizing interoceptive inference and homeostatic regulation. The ensuing homeostatic (or allostatic) perspective provides an intuitive explanation for how priors act as drives or goals to enslave action, and emphasises the embodied nature of inference. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Generative Inferences Based on Learned Relations

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Dawn; Lu, Hongjing; Holyoak, Keith J.

2017-01-01

A key property of relational representations is their "generativity": From partial descriptions of relations between entities, additional inferences can be drawn about other entities. A major theoretical challenge is to demonstrate how the capacity to make generative inferences could arise as a result of learning relations from…

Circumstances surrounding aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schievink, W. I.; Karemaker, J. M.; Hageman, L. M.; van der Werf, D. J.

1989-01-01

The circumstances surrounding aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage were investigated in a group of 500 consecutive patients admitted to a neurosurgical center. Subarachnoid hemorrhage occurred during stressful events in 42.8% of the patients, during nonstrenuous activities in 34.4%, and during rest or

Parametric statistical inference basic theory and modern approaches

CERN Document Server

Zacks, Shelemyahu; Tsokos, C P

1981-01-01

Parametric Statistical Inference: Basic Theory and Modern Approaches presents the developments and modern trends in statistical inference to students who do not have advanced mathematical and statistical preparation. The topics discussed in the book are basic and common to many fields of statistical inference and thus serve as a jumping board for in-depth study. The book is organized into eight chapters. Chapter 1 provides an overview of how the theory of statistical inference is presented in subsequent chapters. Chapter 2 briefly discusses statistical distributions and their properties. Chapt

Variational inference & deep learning: A new synthesis

OpenAIRE

Kingma, D.P.

2017-01-01

In this thesis, Variational Inference and Deep Learning: A New Synthesis, we propose novel solutions to the problems of variational (Bayesian) inference, generative modeling, representation learning, semi-supervised learning, and stochastic optimization.

Variational inference & deep learning : A new synthesis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kingma, D.P.

2017-01-01

In this thesis, Variational Inference and Deep Learning: A New Synthesis, we propose novel solutions to the problems of variational (Bayesian) inference, generative modeling, representation learning, semi-supervised learning, and stochastic optimization.

Ensemble stacking mitigates biases in inference of synaptic connectivity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brendan Chambers

2018-03-01

Full Text Available A promising alternative to directly measuring the anatomical connections in a neuronal population is inferring the connections from the activity. We employ simulated spiking neuronal networks to compare and contrast commonly used inference methods that identify likely excitatory synaptic connections using statistical regularities in spike timing. We find that simple adjustments to standard algorithms improve inference accuracy: A signing procedure improves the power of unsigned mutual-information-based approaches and a correction that accounts for differences in mean and variance of background timing relationships, such as those expected to be induced by heterogeneous firing rates, increases the sensitivity of frequency-based methods. We also find that different inference methods reveal distinct subsets of the synaptic network and each method exhibits different biases in the accurate detection of reciprocity and local clustering. To correct for errors and biases specific to single inference algorithms, we combine methods into an ensemble. Ensemble predictions, generated as a linear combination of multiple inference algorithms, are more sensitive than the best individual measures alone, and are more faithful to ground-truth statistics of connectivity, mitigating biases specific to single inference methods. These weightings generalize across simulated datasets, emphasizing the potential for the broad utility of ensemble-based approaches. Mapping the routing of spikes through local circuitry is crucial for understanding neocortical computation. Under appropriate experimental conditions, these maps can be used to infer likely patterns of synaptic recruitment, linking activity to underlying anatomical connections. Such inferences help to reveal the synaptic implementation of population dynamics and computation. We compare a number of standard functional measures to infer underlying connectivity. We find that regularization impacts measures

Constraint Satisfaction Inference : Non-probabilistic Global Inference for Sequence Labelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Canisius, S.V.M.; van den Bosch, A.; Daelemans, W.; Basili, R.; Moschitti, A.

2006-01-01

We present a new method for performing sequence labelling based on the idea of using a machine-learning classifier to generate several possible output sequences, and then applying an inference procedure to select the best sequence among those. Most sequence labelling methods following a similar

Reasoning about Informal Statistical Inference: One Statistician's View

Science.gov (United States)

Rossman, Allan J.

2008-01-01

This paper identifies key concepts and issues associated with the reasoning of informal statistical inference. I focus on key ideas of inference that I think all students should learn, including at secondary level as well as tertiary. I argue that a fundamental component of inference is to go beyond the data at hand, and I propose that statistical…

Meta-learning framework applied in bioinformatics inference system design.

Science.gov (United States)

Arredondo, Tomás; Ormazábal, Wladimir

2015-01-01

This paper describes a meta-learner inference system development framework which is applied and tested in the implementation of bioinformatic inference systems. These inference systems are used for the systematic classification of the best candidates for inclusion in bacterial metabolic pathway maps. This meta-learner-based approach utilises a workflow where the user provides feedback with final classification decisions which are stored in conjunction with analysed genetic sequences for periodic inference system training. The inference systems were trained and tested with three different data sets related to the bacterial degradation of aromatic compounds. The analysis of the meta-learner-based framework involved contrasting several different optimisation methods with various different parameters. The obtained inference systems were also contrasted with other standard classification methods with accurate prediction capabilities observed.

Cholinergic enhancement reduces orientation-specific surround suppression but not visual crowding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna A. Kosovicheva

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Acetylcholine (ACh reduces the spatial spread of excitatory fMRI responses in early visual cortex and the receptive field sizes of V1 neurons. We investigated the perceptual consequences of these physiological effects of ACh with surround suppression and crowding, two tasks that involve spatial interactions between visual field locations. Surround suppression refers to the reduction in perceived stimulus contrast by a high-contrast surround stimulus. For grating stimuli, surround suppression is selective for the relative orientations of the center and surround, suggesting that it results from inhibitory interactions in early visual cortex. Crowding refers to impaired identification of a peripheral stimulus in the presence of flankers and is thought to result from excessive integration of visual features. We increased synaptic ACh levels by administering the cholinesterase inhibitor donepezil to healthy human subjects in a placebo-controlled, double-blind design. In Exp. 1, we measured surround suppression of a central grating using a contrast discrimination task with three conditions: 1 surround grating with the same orientation as the center (parallel, 2 surround orthogonal to the center, or 3 no surround. Contrast discrimination thresholds were higher in the parallel than in the orthogonal condition, demonstrating orientation-specific surround suppression (OSSS. Cholinergic enhancement reduced thresholds only in the parallel condition, thereby reducing OSSS. In Exp. 2, subjects performed a crowding task in which they reported the identity of a peripheral letter flanked by letters on either side. We measured the critical spacing between the target and flanking letters that allowed reliable identification. Cholinergic enhancement had no effect on critical spacing. Our findings suggest that ACh reduces spatial interactions in tasks involving segmentation of visual field locations but that these effects may be limited to early visual cortical

Statistical inference and Aristotle's Rhetoric.

Science.gov (United States)

Macdonald, Ranald R

2004-11-01

Formal logic operates in a closed system where all the information relevant to any conclusion is present, whereas this is not the case when one reasons about events and states of the world. Pollard and Richardson drew attention to the fact that the reasoning behind statistical tests does not lead to logically justifiable conclusions. In this paper statistical inferences are defended not by logic but by the standards of everyday reasoning. Aristotle invented formal logic, but argued that people mostly get at the truth with the aid of enthymemes--incomplete syllogisms which include arguing from examples, analogies and signs. It is proposed that statistical tests work in the same way--in that they are based on examples, invoke the analogy of a model and use the size of the effect under test as a sign that the chance hypothesis is unlikely. Of existing theories of statistical inference only a weak version of Fisher's takes this into account. Aristotle anticipated Fisher by producing an argument of the form that there were too many cases in which an outcome went in a particular direction for that direction to be plausibly attributed to chance. We can therefore conclude that Aristotle would have approved of statistical inference and there is a good reason for calling this form of statistical inference classical.

Children's and adults' judgments of the certainty of deductive inferences, inductive inferences, and guesses.

Science.gov (United States)

Pillow, Bradford H; Pearson, Raeanne M; Hecht, Mary; Bremer, Amanda

2010-01-01

Children and adults rated their own certainty following inductive inferences, deductive inferences, and guesses. Beginning in kindergarten, participants rated deductions as more certain than weak inductions or guesses. Deductions were rated as more certain than strong inductions beginning in Grade 3, and fourth-grade children and adults differentiated strong inductions, weak inductions, and informed guesses from pure guesses. By Grade 3, participants also gave different types of explanations for their deductions and inductions. These results are discussed in relation to children's concepts of cognitive processes, logical reasoning, and epistemological development.

Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheehan, Sara; Song, Yun S

2016-03-01

Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data) to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest). We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history). Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep) or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme.

Using Alien Coins to Test Whether Simple Inference Is Bayesian

Science.gov (United States)

Cassey, Peter; Hawkins, Guy E.; Donkin, Chris; Brown, Scott D.

2016-01-01

Reasoning and inference are well-studied aspects of basic cognition that have been explained as statistically optimal Bayesian inference. Using a simplified experimental design, we conducted quantitative comparisons between Bayesian inference and human inference at the level of individuals. In 3 experiments, with more than 13,000 participants, we…

On Maximum Entropy and Inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luigi Gresele

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Maximum entropy is a powerful concept that entails a sharp separation between relevant and irrelevant variables. It is typically invoked in inference, once an assumption is made on what the relevant variables are, in order to estimate a model from data, that affords predictions on all other (dependent variables. Conversely, maximum entropy can be invoked to retrieve the relevant variables (sufficient statistics directly from the data, once a model is identified by Bayesian model selection. We explore this approach in the case of spin models with interactions of arbitrary order, and we discuss how relevant interactions can be inferred. In this perspective, the dimensionality of the inference problem is not set by the number of parameters in the model, but by the frequency distribution of the data. We illustrate the method showing its ability to recover the correct model in a few prototype cases and discuss its application on a real dataset.

Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred; Chavira, Mark; Darwiche, Adnan

2004-01-01

We describe a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available \\primula\\ tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference by evaluating...

Causal inference in economics and marketing.

Science.gov (United States)

Varian, Hal R

2016-07-05

This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual-a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference.

Aerial radiological survey of the Three Mile Island Nuclear Station and surrounding area, Middletown, Pennsylvania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Colton, D.P.

1983-08-01

An aerial radiological survey was performed over the area surrounding the Three Mile Island Nuclear Station during October 26 to 30, 1982. The survey covered an 82-square-kilometer area centered on the nuclear plant and encompassed the communities of Middletown, York Haven, Goldsboro and Royalton, Pennsylvania. The highest radiation exposure rates, up to a maximum of 200 microroentgens per hour (μR/h), were inferred from data measured directly over the TMI facilities. This detected radiation was due to the presence of cobalt-58, cobalt-60 and cesium-137, which was consistent with normal plant operations. Similar activity is routinely observed in aerial surveys over nuclear power plants which have been or are presently in an operational mode. For the remainder of the survey area, the inferred radiation exposure rates varied from 6 to 14 μR/h. The reported exposure rate values include an estimated cosmic ray contribution of 3.7 μR/h. Ground-based measurements, conducted during the time of the aerial survey, were compared to the aerial results. Pressurized ionization chamber readings and a group of soil samples were acquired at several locations within the survey area, along the river banks upstream and downstream of the survey area, and at the ground-based locations used for a previous aerial survey which was conducted in 1976. The exposure rate values obtained from these measurements were in agreement with the corresponding aerial data. With the exception of the activity observed within the TMI facilities, no evidence of any contamination which might have occurred as a result of past reactor operations or the 1979 TMI Unit 2 accident was detected from the aerial survey data. This was further supported by the results of the soil sample analyses and the comparison with the 1976 aerial survey data. 7 references, 12 figures, 4 tables

Uncertainty in prediction and in inference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hilgevoord, J.; Uffink, J.

1991-01-01

The concepts of uncertainty in prediction and inference are introduced and illustrated using the diffraction of light as an example. The close relationship between the concepts of uncertainty in inference and resolving power is noted. A general quantitative measure of uncertainty in inference can be obtained by means of the so-called statistical distance between probability distributions. When applied to quantum mechanics, this distance leads to a measure of the distinguishability of quantum states, which essentially is the absolute value of the matrix element between the states. The importance of this result to the quantum mechanical uncertainty principle is noted. The second part of the paper provides a derivation of the statistical distance on the basis of the so-called method of support

Placental vascular responses are dependent on surrounding tissue

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brøgger, Torbjørn Halle

-depth understanding of the mechanism regulating blood flow and perfusion is necessary if we are to come up with new ideas for intervention and treatment. Method: From fresh born placentas stem villi arteries were carefully dissected. The artery branches were divided. The surrounding tissue was removed from one end...... and was left untouched in the other end. Then using wire myography they were investigated in terms of contractility and sensitivity to physiological relevant human-like agonists. Results: Sensitivity to PGF2α, Tx-analog, 5-HT and endothelin-1 was significantly lower in arteries with intact surrounding tissue...... compared to arteries stripped of the tissue. The maximal force development was also significantly lower in arteries with surrounding tissue, when they were depolarized high extracellular [K+] or stimulated with PGF2α or endotheline-1. Conclusion: The perivascular tissue significantly alters stem villi...

Placental vascular responses are dependent on surrounding tissue

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brøgger, Torbjørn Halle

. Materials and methods. From fresh born placentas, stem villi arteries were carefully dissected. The artery branches were divided. The surrounding tissue was removed from one end and was left untouched in the other end.Then, using wire myography, they were investigated in terms of contractility...... and sensitivity to physiological relevant human-like agonists. Results. Sensitivity to PGF2α, Tx-analog, 5-HT and endothelin-1 was significantly lower in arteries with intact surrounding tissue compared to arteries stripped of the tissue. The maximal force development was also significantly lower in arteries...... with surrounding tissue when they were depolarized high extracellular [K+] or stimulated with PGF2α or endotheline-1. Conclusion. The perivascular tissue significantly alters stem villi arteries' sensitivity and force development in a suppressive way. This implicates a new aspect of blood flow regulation...

A synchronous surround increases the motion strength gain of motion.

Science.gov (United States)

Linares, Daniel; Nishida, Shin'ya

2013-11-12

Coherent motion detection is greatly enhanced by the synchronous presentation of a static surround (Linares, Motoyoshi, & Nishida, 2012). To further understand this contextual enhancement, here we measured the sensitivity to discriminate motion strength for several pedestal strengths with and without a surround. We found that the surround improved discrimination of low and medium motion strengths, but did not improve or even impaired discrimination of high motion strengths. We used motion strength discriminability to estimate the perceptual response function assuming additive noise and found that the surround increased the motion strength gain, rather than the response gain. Given that eye and body movements continuously introduce transients in the retinal image, it is possible that this strength gain occurs in natural vision.

Bacterial phylogenetic reconstruction from whole genomes is robust to recombination but demographic inference is not.

Science.gov (United States)

Hedge, Jessica; Wilson, Daniel J

2014-11-25

Phylogenetic inference in bacterial genomics is fundamental to understanding problems such as population history, antimicrobial resistance, and transmission dynamics. The field has been plagued by an apparent state of contradiction since the distorting effects of recombination on phylogeny were discovered more than a decade ago. Researchers persist with detailed phylogenetic analyses while simultaneously acknowledging that recombination seriously misleads inference of population dynamics and selection. Here we resolve this paradox by showing that phylogenetic tree topologies based on whole genomes robustly reconstruct the clonal frame topology but that branch lengths are badly skewed. Surprisingly, removing recombining sites can exacerbate branch length distortion caused by recombination. Phylogenetic tree reconstruction is a popular approach for understanding the relatedness of bacteria in a population from differences in their genome sequences. However, bacteria frequently exchange regions of their genomes by a process called homologous recombination, which violates a fundamental assumption of phylogenetic methods. Since many researchers continue to use phylogenetics for recombining bacteria, it is important to understand how recombination affects the conclusions drawn from these analyses. We find that whole-genome sequences afford great accuracy in reconstructing evolutionary relationships despite concerns surrounding the presence of recombination, but the branch lengths of the phylogenetic tree are indeed badly distorted. Surprisingly, methods to reduce the impact of recombination on branch lengths can exacerbate the problem. Copyright © 2014 Hedge and Wilson.

Nonparametric predictive inference in statistical process control

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Arts, G.R.J.; Coolen, F.P.A.; Laan, van der P.

2000-01-01

New methods for statistical process control are presented, where the inferences have a nonparametric predictive nature. We consider several problems in process control in terms of uncertainties about future observable random quantities, and we develop inferences for these random quantities hased on

Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred; Darwiche, Adnan; Chavira, Mark

2006-01-01

We describe in this paper a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available PRIMULA tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference...

Making inference from wildlife collision data: inferring predator absence from prey strikes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Caley

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Wildlife collision data are ubiquitous, though challenging for making ecological inference due to typically irreducible uncertainty relating to the sampling process. We illustrate a new approach that is useful for generating inference from predator data arising from wildlife collisions. By simply conditioning on a second prey species sampled via the same collision process, and by using a biologically realistic numerical response functions, we can produce a coherent numerical response relationship between predator and prey. This relationship can then be used to make inference on the population size of the predator species, including the probability of extinction. The statistical conditioning enables us to account for unmeasured variation in factors influencing the runway strike incidence for individual airports and to enable valid comparisons. A practical application of the approach for testing hypotheses about the distribution and abundance of a predator species is illustrated using the hypothesized red fox incursion into Tasmania, Australia. We estimate that conditional on the numerical response between fox and lagomorph runway strikes on mainland Australia, the predictive probability of observing no runway strikes of foxes in Tasmania after observing 15 lagomorph strikes is 0.001. We conclude there is enough evidence to safely reject the null hypothesis that there is a widespread red fox population in Tasmania at a population density consistent with prey availability. The method is novel and has potential wider application.

Making inference from wildlife collision data: inferring predator absence from prey strikes.

Science.gov (United States)

Caley, Peter; Hosack, Geoffrey R; Barry, Simon C

2017-01-01

Wildlife collision data are ubiquitous, though challenging for making ecological inference due to typically irreducible uncertainty relating to the sampling process. We illustrate a new approach that is useful for generating inference from predator data arising from wildlife collisions. By simply conditioning on a second prey species sampled via the same collision process, and by using a biologically realistic numerical response functions, we can produce a coherent numerical response relationship between predator and prey. This relationship can then be used to make inference on the population size of the predator species, including the probability of extinction. The statistical conditioning enables us to account for unmeasured variation in factors influencing the runway strike incidence for individual airports and to enable valid comparisons. A practical application of the approach for testing hypotheses about the distribution and abundance of a predator species is illustrated using the hypothesized red fox incursion into Tasmania, Australia. We estimate that conditional on the numerical response between fox and lagomorph runway strikes on mainland Australia, the predictive probability of observing no runway strikes of foxes in Tasmania after observing 15 lagomorph strikes is 0.001. We conclude there is enough evidence to safely reject the null hypothesis that there is a widespread red fox population in Tasmania at a population density consistent with prey availability. The method is novel and has potential wider application.

Causal inference in biology networks with integrated belief propagation.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Rui; Karr, Jonathan R; Schadt, Eric E

2015-01-01

Inferring causal relationships among molecular and higher order phenotypes is a critical step in elucidating the complexity of living systems. Here we propose a novel method for inferring causality that is no longer constrained by the conditional dependency arguments that limit the ability of statistical causal inference methods to resolve causal relationships within sets of graphical models that are Markov equivalent. Our method utilizes Bayesian belief propagation to infer the responses of perturbation events on molecular traits given a hypothesized graph structure. A distance measure between the inferred response distribution and the observed data is defined to assess the 'fitness' of the hypothesized causal relationships. To test our algorithm, we infer causal relationships within equivalence classes of gene networks in which the form of the functional interactions that are possible are assumed to be nonlinear, given synthetic microarray and RNA sequencing data. We also apply our method to infer causality in real metabolic network with v-structure and feedback loop. We show that our method can recapitulate the causal structure and recover the feedback loop only from steady-state data which conventional method cannot.

Efficient Bayesian inference for ARFIMA processes

Science.gov (United States)

Graves, T.; Gramacy, R. B.; Franzke, C. L. E.; Watkins, N. W.

2015-03-01

Many geophysical quantities, like atmospheric temperature, water levels in rivers, and wind speeds, have shown evidence of long-range dependence (LRD). LRD means that these quantities experience non-trivial temporal memory, which potentially enhances their predictability, but also hampers the detection of externally forced trends. Thus, it is important to reliably identify whether or not a system exhibits LRD. In this paper we present a modern and systematic approach to the inference of LRD. Rather than Mandelbrot's fractional Gaussian noise, we use the more flexible Autoregressive Fractional Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model which is widely used in time series analysis, and of increasing interest in climate science. Unlike most previous work on the inference of LRD, which is frequentist in nature, we provide a systematic treatment of Bayesian inference. In particular, we provide a new approximate likelihood for efficient parameter inference, and show how nuisance parameters (e.g. short memory effects) can be integrated over in order to focus on long memory parameters, and hypothesis testing more directly. We illustrate our new methodology on the Nile water level data, with favorable comparison to the standard estimators.

Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sara Sheehan

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest. We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history. Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme.

Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference

Science.gov (United States)

Sheehan, Sara; Song, Yun S.

2016-01-01

Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data) to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest). We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history). Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep) or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme. PMID:27018908

Cytoplasmic movement profiles of mouse surrounding nucleolus and not-surrounding nucleolus antral oocytes during meiotic resumption.

Science.gov (United States)

Bui, Thi Thu Hien; Belli, Martina; Fassina, Lorenzo; Vigone, Giulia; Merico, Valeria; Garagna, Silvia; Zuccotti, Maurizio

2017-05-01

Full-grown mouse antral oocytes are classified as surrounding nucleolus (SN) or not-surrounding nucleolus (NSN), depending on the respective presence or absence of a ring of Hoechst-positive chromatin surrounding the nucleolus. In culture, both types of oocytes resume meiosis and reach the metaphase II (MII) stage, but following insemination, NSN oocytes arrest at the two-cell stage whereas SN oocytes may develop to term. By coupling time-lapse bright-field microscopy with image analysis based on particle image velocimetry, we provide the first systematic measure of the changes to the cytoplasmic movement velocity (CMV) occurring during the germinal vesicle-to-MII (GV-to-MII) transition of these two types of oocytes. Compared to SN oocytes, NSN oocytes display a delayed GV-to-MII transition, which can be mostly explained by retarded germinal vesicle break down and first polar body extrusion. SN and NSN oocytes also exhibit significantly different CMV profiles at four main time-lapse intervals, although this difference was not predictive of SN or NSN oocyte origin because of the high variability in CMV. When CMV profile was analyzed through a trained artificial neural network, however, each single SN or NSN oocyte was blindly identified with a probability of 92.2% and 88.7%, respectively. Thus, the CMV profile recorded during meiotic resumption may be exploited as a cytological signature for the non-invasive assessment of the oocyte developmental potential, and could be informative for the analysis of the GV-to-MII transition of oocytes of other species. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Bayesian Network Schema for Lessening Database Inference

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Chang, LiWu; Moskowitz, Ira S

2001-01-01

.... The authors introduce a formal schema for database inference analysis, based upon a Bayesian network structure, which identifies critical parameters involved in the inference problem and represents...

Type Inference for Session Types in the Pi-Calculus

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Graversen, Eva Fajstrup; Harbo, Jacob Buchreitz; Huttel, Hans

2014-01-01

In this paper we present a direct algorithm for session type inference for the π-calculus. Type inference for session types has previously been achieved by either imposing limitations and restriction on the π-calculus, or by reducing the type inference problem to that for linear types. Our approach...

Surrounding Moving Obstacle Detection for Autonomous Driving Using Stereo Vision

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hao Sun

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Detection and tracking surrounding moving obstacles such as vehicles and pedestrians are crucial for the safety of mobile robotics and autonomous vehicles. This is especially the case in urban driving scenarios. This paper presents a novel framework for surrounding moving obstacles detection using binocular stereo vision. The contributions of our work are threefold. Firstly, a multiview feature matching scheme is presented for simultaneous stereo correspondence and motion correspondence searching. Secondly, the multiview geometry constraint derived from the relative camera positions in pairs of consecutive stereo views is exploited for surrounding moving obstacles detection. Thirdly, an adaptive particle filter is proposed for tracking of multiple moving obstacles in surrounding areas. Experimental results from real-world driving sequences demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed framework.

The Situated Inference Model: An Integrative Account of the Effects of Primes on Perception, Behavior, and Motivation.

Science.gov (United States)

Loersch, Chris; Payne, B Keith

2011-05-01

The downstream consequences of a priming induction range from changes in the perception of objects in the environment to the initiation of prime-related behavior and goal striving. Although each of these outcomes has been accounted for by separate mechanisms, we argue that a single process could produce all three priming effects. In this article, we introduce the situated inference model of priming, discuss its potential to account for these divergent outcomes with one mechanism, and demonstrate its ability to organize the priming literatures surrounding these effects. According to the model, primes often do not cause direct effects, instead altering only the accessibility of prime-related mental content. This information produces downstream effects on judgment, behavior, or motivation when it is mistakenly viewed as originating from one's own internal thought processes. When this misattribution occurs, the prime-related mental content becomes a possible source of information for solving whatever problems are afforded by the current situation. Because different situations afford very different questions and concerns, the inferred meaning of this prime-related content can vary greatly. The use of this information to answer qualitatively different questions can lead a single prime to produce varied effects on judgment, behavior, and motivation. © The Author(s) 2011.

Explanatory Preferences Shape Learning and Inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Lombrozo, Tania

2016-10-01

Explanations play an important role in learning and inference. People often learn by seeking explanations, and they assess the viability of hypotheses by considering how well they explain the data. An emerging body of work reveals that both children and adults have strong and systematic intuitions about what constitutes a good explanation, and that these explanatory preferences have a systematic impact on explanation-based processes. In particular, people favor explanations that are simple and broad, with the consequence that engaging in explanation can shape learning and inference by leading people to seek patterns and favor hypotheses that support broad and simple explanations. Given the prevalence of explanation in everyday cognition, understanding explanation is therefore crucial to understanding learning and inference. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Grammatical inference algorithms, routines and applications

CERN Document Server

Wieczorek, Wojciech

2017-01-01

This book focuses on grammatical inference, presenting classic and modern methods of grammatical inference from the perspective of practitioners. To do so, it employs the Python programming language to present all of the methods discussed. Grammatical inference is a field that lies at the intersection of multiple disciplines, with contributions from computational linguistics, pattern recognition, machine learning, computational biology, formal learning theory and many others. Though the book is largely practical, it also includes elements of learning theory, combinatorics on words, the theory of automata and formal languages, plus references to real-world problems. The listings presented here can be directly copied and pasted into other programs, thus making the book a valuable source of ready recipes for students, academic researchers, and programmers alike, as well as an inspiration for their further development.>.

BagReg: Protein inference through machine learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Can; Liu, Dao; Teng, Ben; He, Zengyou

2015-08-01

Protein inference from the identified peptides is of primary importance in the shotgun proteomics. The target of protein inference is to identify whether each candidate protein is truly present in the sample. To date, many computational methods have been proposed to solve this problem. However, there is still no method that can fully utilize the information hidden in the input data. In this article, we propose a learning-based method named BagReg for protein inference. The method firstly artificially extracts five features from the input data, and then chooses each feature as the class feature to separately build models to predict the presence probabilities of proteins. Finally, the weak results from five prediction models are aggregated to obtain the final result. We test our method on six public available data sets. The experimental results show that our method is superior to the state-of-the-art protein inference algorithms. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ensemble stacking mitigates biases in inference of synaptic connectivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Chambers, Brendan; Levy, Maayan; Dechery, Joseph B; MacLean, Jason N

2018-01-01

A promising alternative to directly measuring the anatomical connections in a neuronal population is inferring the connections from the activity. We employ simulated spiking neuronal networks to compare and contrast commonly used inference methods that identify likely excitatory synaptic connections using statistical regularities in spike timing. We find that simple adjustments to standard algorithms improve inference accuracy: A signing procedure improves the power of unsigned mutual-information-based approaches and a correction that accounts for differences in mean and variance of background timing relationships, such as those expected to be induced by heterogeneous firing rates, increases the sensitivity of frequency-based methods. We also find that different inference methods reveal distinct subsets of the synaptic network and each method exhibits different biases in the accurate detection of reciprocity and local clustering. To correct for errors and biases specific to single inference algorithms, we combine methods into an ensemble. Ensemble predictions, generated as a linear combination of multiple inference algorithms, are more sensitive than the best individual measures alone, and are more faithful to ground-truth statistics of connectivity, mitigating biases specific to single inference methods. These weightings generalize across simulated datasets, emphasizing the potential for the broad utility of ensemble-based approaches.

Stochastic processes inference theory

CERN Document Server

Rao, Malempati M

2014-01-01

This is the revised and enlarged 2nd edition of the authors’ original text, which was intended to be a modest complement to Grenander's fundamental memoir on stochastic processes and related inference theory. The present volume gives a substantial account of regression analysis, both for stochastic processes and measures, and includes recent material on Ridge regression with some unexpected applications, for example in econometrics. The first three chapters can be used for a quarter or semester graduate course on inference on stochastic processes. The remaining chapters provide more advanced material on stochastic analysis suitable for graduate seminars and discussions, leading to dissertation or research work. In general, the book will be of interest to researchers in probability theory, mathematical statistics and electrical and information theory.

Russell and Humean Inferences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

João Paulo Monteiro

2001-12-01

Full Text Available Russell's The Problems of Philosophy tries to establish a new theory of induction, at the same time that Hume is there accused of an irrational/ scepticism about induction". But a careful analysis of the theory of knowledge explicitly acknowledged by Hume reveals that, contrary to the standard interpretation in the XXth century, possibly influenced by Russell, Hume deals exclusively with causal inference (which he never classifies as "causal induction", although now we are entitled to do so, never with inductive inference in general, mainly generalizations about sensible qualities of objects ( whether, e.g., "all crows are black" or not is not among Hume's concerns. Russell's theories are thus only false alternatives to Hume's, in (1912 or in his (1948.

Efficient algorithms for conditional independence inference

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Bouckaert, R.; Hemmecke, R.; Lindner, S.; Studený, Milan

2010-01-01

Roč. 11, č. 1 (2010), s. 3453-3479 ISSN 1532-4435 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/08/0539; GA MŠk 1M0572 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : conditional independence inference * linear programming approach Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 2.949, year: 2010 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/MTR/studeny-efficient algorithms for conditional independence inference.pdf

Influence of Surrounding Colors in the Illuminant-Color Mode on Color Constancy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kazuho Fukuda

2011-05-01

Full Text Available On color constancy, we showed that brighter surrounding colors had greater influence than dim colors (Uchikawa, Kitazawa, MacLeod, Fukuda, 2010 APCV. Increasing luminance of a stimulus causes the change in appearance from the surface-color to the illuminant-color mode. However it is unknown whether the visual system considers such color appearance mode of surrounding colors to achieve color constancy. We investigated the influence of surrounding colors that appeared illuminant on color constancy. The stimulus was composed of a central test stimulus and surrounding six colors: bright and dim red, green and blue. The observers adjusted the chromaticity of the test stimulus to be appeared as an achromatic surface. The luminance balance of three bright surrounding colors was equalized with that of the optimal colors in three illuminant conditions, then, the luminance of one of the three bright colors was varied in the range beyond the critical luminance of color appearance mode transition. The results showed that increasing luminance of a bright surrounding color shifted the observers' achromatic setting toward its chromaticity, but this effect diminished for the surrounding color in the illuminant-color mode. These results suggest that the visual system considers color appearance mode of surrounding colors to accomplish color constancy.

State-Space Inference and Learning with Gaussian Processes

OpenAIRE

Turner, R; Deisenroth, MP; Rasmussen, CE

2010-01-01

18.10.13 KB. Ok to add author version to spiral, authors hold copyright. State-space inference and learning with Gaussian processes (GPs) is an unsolved problem. We propose a new, general methodology for inference and learning in nonlinear state-space models that are described probabilistically by non-parametric GP models. We apply the expectation maximization algorithm to iterate between inference in the latent state-space and learning the parameters of the underlying GP dynamics model. C...

Enhancing Transparency and Control When Drawing Data-Driven Inferences About Individuals.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Daizhuo; Fraiberger, Samuel P; Moakler, Robert; Provost, Foster

2017-09-01

Recent studies show the remarkable power of fine-grained information disclosed by users on social network sites to infer users' personal characteristics via predictive modeling. Similar fine-grained data are being used successfully in other commercial applications. In response, attention is turning increasingly to the transparency that organizations provide to users as to what inferences are drawn and why, as well as to what sort of control users can be given over inferences that are drawn about them. In this article, we focus on inferences about personal characteristics based on information disclosed by users' online actions. As a use case, we explore personal inferences that are made possible from "Likes" on Facebook. We first present a means for providing transparency into the information responsible for inferences drawn by data-driven models. We then introduce the "cloaking device"-a mechanism for users to inhibit the use of particular pieces of information in inference. Using these analytical tools we ask two main questions: (1) How much information must users cloak to significantly affect inferences about their personal traits? We find that usually users must cloak only a small portion of their actions to inhibit inference. We also find that, encouragingly, false-positive inferences are significantly easier to cloak than true-positive inferences. (2) Can firms change their modeling behavior to make cloaking more difficult? The answer is a definitive yes. We demonstrate a simple modeling change that requires users to cloak substantially more information to affect the inferences drawn. The upshot is that organizations can provide transparency and control even into complicated, predictive model-driven inferences, but they also can make control easier or harder for their users.

P1-13: Color Induction from Surround Color under Interocular Suppression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ichiro Kuriki

2012-10-01

Full Text Available The effect of surround colors on color appearance is known to subserve color constancy in humans, but how multiple mechanisms in the visual system are involved in this effect is controversial. We used an interocular-suppression technique to examine how the effect occurs at the level higher than the interaction of binocular information. A test color chip (1.7 × 1.7 deg visual angle was presented in a static surround either with continuous-flash suppression in the dominant eye (CFS condition to make the surround inperceptible or without the suppression (no-CFS condition. The surround stimulus was either a Mondrian or a uniform field of the same mean chromaticity. Stimuli were simulated OSA color chips under red, white (D65, or green illuminant color and were presented on a CRT display. Unique yellows were measured by asking the subjects to judge whether the test stimulus appeared reddish or greenish. Two sizes of the surround stimuli (widths of 1 deg and 4 deg were used. Results showed significant shifts in unique yellow even under the CFS conditions, except for the 1 deg uniform-surround condition. Under the no-CFS condition, the shifts showed remarkable difference between subjects, except for the 4 deg Mondrian-surround condition. Interestingly, trends of the shifts showed high consistency within each subject, across conditions. These results indicate that mechanisms at both higher and lower levels than the neuronal site of interocular suppression are involved, and that the color shifts follow each subject's strategy in the higher-order mechanisms when only insufficient clues are available in the surround to estimate illuminant color.

Confronting, Confirming, and Dispelling Myths Surrounding ERP-in-the-Cloud

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beaulieu, Tanya; C. Martin, Todd; Sarker, Saonee

2015-01-01

on the topic, there is substantial uncertainty surrounding the benefits and challenges of ERP cloud computing. Consequently, as often is the case with new technologies, popular myths surrounding the technology are used to make adoption and implementation decisions. As a first step toward providing an informed...... with stakeholders related to an ERP cloud-based solution. Our results dispel some of the myths, while supporting others, and highlight how ERP vendors work around the different types of challenges surrounding this technology. Our study also helps understand the benefits of ERP cloud computing, and informs about how...

Fused Regression for Multi-source Gene Regulatory Network Inference.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kari Y Lam

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Understanding gene regulatory networks is critical to understanding cellular differentiation and response to external stimuli. Methods for global network inference have been developed and applied to a variety of species. Most approaches consider the problem of network inference independently in each species, despite evidence that gene regulation can be conserved even in distantly related species. Further, network inference is often confined to single data-types (single platforms and single cell types. We introduce a method for multi-source network inference that allows simultaneous estimation of gene regulatory networks in multiple species or biological processes through the introduction of priors based on known gene relationships such as orthology incorporated using fused regression. This approach improves network inference performance even when orthology mapping and conservation are incomplete. We refine this method by presenting an algorithm that extracts the true conserved subnetwork from a larger set of potentially conserved interactions and demonstrate the utility of our method in cross species network inference. Last, we demonstrate our method's utility in learning from data collected on different experimental platforms.

HIERARCHICAL PROBABILISTIC INFERENCE OF COSMIC SHEAR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schneider, Michael D.; Dawson, William A.; Hogg, David W.; Marshall, Philip J.; Bard, Deborah J.; Meyers, Joshua; Lang, Dustin

2015-01-01

Point estimators for the shearing of galaxy images induced by gravitational lensing involve a complex inverse problem in the presence of noise, pixelization, and model uncertainties. We present a probabilistic forward modeling approach to gravitational lensing inference that has the potential to mitigate the biased inferences in most common point estimators and is practical for upcoming lensing surveys. The first part of our statistical framework requires specification of a likelihood function for the pixel data in an imaging survey given parameterized models for the galaxies in the images. We derive the lensing shear posterior by marginalizing over all intrinsic galaxy properties that contribute to the pixel data (i.e., not limited to galaxy ellipticities) and learn the distributions for the intrinsic galaxy properties via hierarchical inference with a suitably flexible conditional probabilitiy distribution specification. We use importance sampling to separate the modeling of small imaging areas from the global shear inference, thereby rendering our algorithm computationally tractable for large surveys. With simple numerical examples we demonstrate the improvements in accuracy from our importance sampling approach, as well as the significance of the conditional distribution specification for the intrinsic galaxy properties when the data are generated from an unknown number of distinct galaxy populations with different morphological characteristics

Inverse Ising inference with correlated samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Obermayer, Benedikt; Levine, Erel

2014-01-01

Correlations between two variables of a high-dimensional system can be indicative of an underlying interaction, but can also result from indirect effects. Inverse Ising inference is a method to distinguish one from the other. Essentially, the parameters of the least constrained statistical model are learned from the observed correlations such that direct interactions can be separated from indirect correlations. Among many other applications, this approach has been helpful for protein structure prediction, because residues which interact in the 3D structure often show correlated substitutions in a multiple sequence alignment. In this context, samples used for inference are not independent but share an evolutionary history on a phylogenetic tree. Here, we discuss the effects of correlations between samples on global inference. Such correlations could arise due to phylogeny but also via other slow dynamical processes. We present a simple analytical model to address the resulting inference biases, and develop an exact method accounting for background correlations in alignment data by combining phylogenetic modeling with an adaptive cluster expansion algorithm. We find that popular reweighting schemes are only marginally effective at removing phylogenetic bias, suggest a rescaling strategy that yields better results, and provide evidence that our conclusions carry over to the frequently used mean-field approach to the inverse Ising problem. (paper)

Bayesian structural inference for hidden processes

Science.gov (United States)

Strelioff, Christopher C.; Crutchfield, James P.

2014-04-01

We introduce a Bayesian approach to discovering patterns in structurally complex processes. The proposed method of Bayesian structural inference (BSI) relies on a set of candidate unifilar hidden Markov model (uHMM) topologies for inference of process structure from a data series. We employ a recently developed exact enumeration of topological ɛ-machines. (A sequel then removes the topological restriction.) This subset of the uHMM topologies has the added benefit that inferred models are guaranteed to be ɛ-machines, irrespective of estimated transition probabilities. Properties of ɛ-machines and uHMMs allow for the derivation of analytic expressions for estimating transition probabilities, inferring start states, and comparing the posterior probability of candidate model topologies, despite process internal structure being only indirectly present in data. We demonstrate BSI's effectiveness in estimating a process's randomness, as reflected by the Shannon entropy rate, and its structure, as quantified by the statistical complexity. We also compare using the posterior distribution over candidate models and the single, maximum a posteriori model for point estimation and show that the former more accurately reflects uncertainty in estimated values. We apply BSI to in-class examples of finite- and infinite-order Markov processes, as well to an out-of-class, infinite-state hidden process.

The Impact of Disablers on Predictive Inference

Science.gov (United States)

Cummins, Denise Dellarosa

2014-01-01

People consider alternative causes when deciding whether a cause is responsible for an effect (diagnostic inference) but appear to neglect them when deciding whether an effect will occur (predictive inference). Five experiments were conducted to test a 2-part explanation of this phenomenon: namely, (a) that people interpret standard predictive…

Automatic physical inference with information maximizing neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Charnock, Tom; Lavaux, Guilhem; Wandelt, Benjamin D.

2018-04-01

Compressing large data sets to a manageable number of summaries that are informative about the underlying parameters vastly simplifies both frequentist and Bayesian inference. When only simulations are available, these summaries are typically chosen heuristically, so they may inadvertently miss important information. We introduce a simulation-based machine learning technique that trains artificial neural networks to find nonlinear functionals of data that maximize Fisher information: information maximizing neural networks (IMNNs). In test cases where the posterior can be derived exactly, likelihood-free inference based on automatically derived IMNN summaries produces nearly exact posteriors, showing that these summaries are good approximations to sufficient statistics. In a series of numerical examples of increasing complexity and astrophysical relevance we show that IMNNs are robustly capable of automatically finding optimal, nonlinear summaries of the data even in cases where linear compression fails: inferring the variance of Gaussian signal in the presence of noise, inferring cosmological parameters from mock simulations of the Lyman-α forest in quasar spectra, and inferring frequency-domain parameters from LISA-like detections of gravitational waveforms. In this final case, the IMNN summary outperforms linear data compression by avoiding the introduction of spurious likelihood maxima. We anticipate that the automatic physical inference method described in this paper will be essential to obtain both accurate and precise cosmological parameter estimates from complex and large astronomical data sets, including those from LSST and Euclid.

Inference as Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Jane

2007-01-01

Inference, or decision making, is seen in curriculum documents as the final step in a statistical investigation. For a formal statistical enquiry this may be associated with sophisticated tests involving probability distributions. For young students without the mathematical background to perform such tests, it is still possible to draw informal…

Problem solving and inference mechanisms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Furukawa, K; Nakajima, R; Yonezawa, A; Goto, S; Aoyama, A

1982-01-01

The heart of the fifth generation computer will be powerful mechanisms for problem solving and inference. A deduction-oriented language is to be designed, which will form the core of the whole computing system. The language is based on predicate logic with the extended features of structuring facilities, meta structures and relational data base interfaces. Parallel computation mechanisms and specialized hardware architectures are being investigated to make possible efficient realization of the language features. The project includes research into an intelligent programming system, a knowledge representation language and system, and a meta inference system to be built on the core. 30 references.

Elements of Causal Inference: Foundations and Learning Algorithms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Peters, Jonas Martin; Janzing, Dominik; Schölkopf, Bernhard

A concise and self-contained introduction to causal inference, increasingly important in data science and machine learning......A concise and self-contained introduction to causal inference, increasingly important in data science and machine learning...

Bayesian methods for hackers probabilistic programming and Bayesian inference

CERN Document Server

Davidson-Pilon, Cameron

2016-01-01

Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples a...

Ecological mechanisms linking protected areas to surrounding lands.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Andrew J; DeFries, Ruth

2007-06-01

Land use is expanding and intensifying in the unprotected lands surrounding many of the world's protected areas. The influence of this land use change on ecological processes is poorly understood. The goal of this paper is to draw on ecological theory to provide a synthetic framework for understanding how land use change around protected areas may alter ecological processes and biodiversity within protected areas and to provide a basis for identifying scientifically based management alternatives. We first present a conceptual model of protected areas embedded within larger ecosystems that often include surrounding human land use. Drawing on case studies in this Invited Feature, we then explore a comprehensive set of ecological mechanisms by which land use on surrounding lands may influence ecological processes and biodiversity within reserves. These mechanisms involve changes in ecosystem size, with implications for minimum dynamic area, species-area effect, and trophic structure; altered flows of materials and disturbances into and out of reserves; effects on crucial habitats for seasonal and migration movements and population source/sink dynamics; and exposure to humans through hunting, poaching, exotics species, and disease. These ecological mechanisms provide a basis for assessing the vulnerability of protected areas to land use. They also suggest criteria for designing regional management to sustain protected areas in the context of surrounding human land use. These design criteria include maximizing the area of functional habitats, identifying and maintaining ecological process zones, maintaining key migration and source habitats, and managing human proximity and edge effects.

Causal inference in econometrics

CERN Document Server

Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

2016-01-01

This book is devoted to the analysis of causal inference which is one of the most difficult tasks in data analysis: when two phenomena are observed to be related, it is often difficult to decide whether one of them causally influences the other one, or whether these two phenomena have a common cause. This analysis is the main focus of this volume. To get a good understanding of the causal inference, it is important to have models of economic phenomena which are as accurate as possible. Because of this need, this volume also contains papers that use non-traditional economic models, such as fuzzy models and models obtained by using neural networks and data mining techniques. It also contains papers that apply different econometric models to analyze real-life economic dependencies.

Assessment of network inference methods: how to cope with an underdetermined problem.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caroline Siegenthaler

Full Text Available The inference of biological networks is an active research area in the field of systems biology. The number of network inference algorithms has grown tremendously in the last decade, underlining the importance of a fair assessment and comparison among these methods. Current assessments of the performance of an inference method typically involve the application of the algorithm to benchmark datasets and the comparison of the network predictions against the gold standard or reference networks. While the network inference problem is often deemed underdetermined, implying that the inference problem does not have a (unique solution, the consequences of such an attribute have not been rigorously taken into consideration. Here, we propose a new procedure for assessing the performance of gene regulatory network (GRN inference methods. The procedure takes into account the underdetermined nature of the inference problem, in which gene regulatory interactions that are inferable or non-inferable are determined based on causal inference. The assessment relies on a new definition of the confusion matrix, which excludes errors associated with non-inferable gene regulations. For demonstration purposes, the proposed assessment procedure is applied to the DREAM 4 In Silico Network Challenge. The results show a marked change in the ranking of participating methods when taking network inferability into account.

The nature of surround-induced depolarizing responses in goldfish cones

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kraaij, D. A.; Spekreijse, H.; Kamermans, M.

2000-01-01

Cones in the vertebrate retina project to horizontal and bipolar cells and the horizontal cells feedback negatively to cones. This organization forms the basis for the center/surround organization of the bipolar cells, a fundamental step in the visual signal processing. Although the surround

Investigation of the readout electronics of DELPHI surround muon chamber

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khovanskij, N.; Krumshtejn, Z.; Ol'shevskij, A.; Sadovskij, A.; Sedykh, Yu.; Molnar, J.; Sicho, P.; Tomsa, Z.

1995-01-01

The characteristics of the readout electronics of the DELPHI surround muon chambers with various AMPLEX chips (AMPLEX 16 and AMPLEX-SICAL) are presented. This electronics is studied in a cosmic rays test of the real surround muon chamber model. 4 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab

Probability and Statistical Inference

OpenAIRE

Prosper, Harrison B.

2006-01-01

These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.

Fuzzy logic controller using different inference methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Z.; De Keyser, R.

1994-01-01

In this paper the design of fuzzy controllers by using different inference methods is introduced. Configuration of the fuzzy controllers includes a general rule-base which is a collection of fuzzy PI or PD rules, the triangular fuzzy data model and a centre of gravity defuzzification algorithm. The generalized modus ponens (GMP) is used with the minimum operator of the triangular norm. Under the sup-min inference rule, six fuzzy implication operators are employed to calculate the fuzzy look-up tables for each rule base. The performance is tested in simulated systems with MATLAB/SIMULINK. Results show the effects of using the fuzzy controllers with different inference methods and applied to different test processes

An algebra-based method for inferring gene regulatory networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Vera-Licona, Paola; Jarrah, Abdul; Garcia-Puente, Luis David; McGee, John; Laubenbacher, Reinhard

2014-03-26

The inference of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from experimental observations is at the heart of systems biology. This includes the inference of both the network topology and its dynamics. While there are many algorithms available to infer the network topology from experimental data, less emphasis has been placed on methods that infer network dynamics. Furthermore, since the network inference problem is typically underdetermined, it is essential to have the option of incorporating into the inference process, prior knowledge about the network, along with an effective description of the search space of dynamic models. Finally, it is also important to have an understanding of how a given inference method is affected by experimental and other noise in the data used. This paper contains a novel inference algorithm using the algebraic framework of Boolean polynomial dynamical systems (BPDS), meeting all these requirements. The algorithm takes as input time series data, including those from network perturbations, such as knock-out mutant strains and RNAi experiments. It allows for the incorporation of prior biological knowledge while being robust to significant levels of noise in the data used for inference. It uses an evolutionary algorithm for local optimization with an encoding of the mathematical models as BPDS. The BPDS framework allows an effective representation of the search space for algebraic dynamic models that improves computational performance. The algorithm is validated with both simulated and experimental microarray expression profile data. Robustness to noise is tested using a published mathematical model of the segment polarity gene network in Drosophila melanogaster. Benchmarking of the algorithm is done by comparison with a spectrum of state-of-the-art network inference methods on data from the synthetic IRMA network to demonstrate that our method has good precision and recall for the network reconstruction task, while also predicting several of the

Statistical inference based on divergence measures

CERN Document Server

Pardo, Leandro

2005-01-01

The idea of using functionals of Information Theory, such as entropies or divergences, in statistical inference is not new. However, in spite of the fact that divergence statistics have become a very good alternative to the classical likelihood ratio test and the Pearson-type statistic in discrete models, many statisticians remain unaware of this powerful approach.Statistical Inference Based on Divergence Measures explores classical problems of statistical inference, such as estimation and hypothesis testing, on the basis of measures of entropy and divergence. The first two chapters form an overview, from a statistical perspective, of the most important measures of entropy and divergence and study their properties. The author then examines the statistical analysis of discrete multivariate data with emphasis is on problems in contingency tables and loglinear models using phi-divergence test statistics as well as minimum phi-divergence estimators. The final chapter looks at testing in general populations, prese...

Active inference, sensory attenuation and illusions.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Harriet; Adams, Rick A; Parees, Isabel; Edwards, Mark; Friston, Karl

2013-11-01

Active inference provides a simple and neurobiologically plausible account of how action and perception are coupled in producing (Bayes) optimal behaviour. This can be seen most easily as minimising prediction error: we can either change our predictions to explain sensory input through perception. Alternatively, we can actively change sensory input to fulfil our predictions. In active inference, this action is mediated by classical reflex arcs that minimise proprioceptive prediction error created by descending proprioceptive predictions. However, this creates a conflict between action and perception; in that, self-generated movements require predictions to override the sensory evidence that one is not actually moving. However, ignoring sensory evidence means that externally generated sensations will not be perceived. Conversely, attending to (proprioceptive and somatosensory) sensations enables the detection of externally generated events but precludes generation of actions. This conflict can be resolved by attenuating the precision of sensory evidence during movement or, equivalently, attending away from the consequences of self-made acts. We propose that this Bayes optimal withdrawal of precise sensory evidence during movement is the cause of psychophysical sensory attenuation. Furthermore, it explains the force-matching illusion and reproduces empirical results almost exactly. Finally, if attenuation is removed, the force-matching illusion disappears and false (delusional) inferences about agency emerge. This is important, given the negative correlation between sensory attenuation and delusional beliefs in normal subjects--and the reduction in the magnitude of the illusion in schizophrenia. Active inference therefore links the neuromodulatory optimisation of precision to sensory attenuation and illusory phenomena during the attribution of agency in normal subjects. It also provides a functional account of deficits in syndromes characterised by false inference

Bayesian Inference and Online Learning in Poisson Neuronal Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yanping; Rao, Rajesh P N

2016-08-01

Motivated by the growing evidence for Bayesian computation in the brain, we show how a two-layer recurrent network of Poisson neurons can perform both approximate Bayesian inference and learning for any hidden Markov model. The lower-layer sensory neurons receive noisy measurements of hidden world states. The higher-layer neurons infer a posterior distribution over world states via Bayesian inference from inputs generated by sensory neurons. We demonstrate how such a neuronal network with synaptic plasticity can implement a form of Bayesian inference similar to Monte Carlo methods such as particle filtering. Each spike in a higher-layer neuron represents a sample of a particular hidden world state. The spiking activity across the neural population approximates the posterior distribution over hidden states. In this model, variability in spiking is regarded not as a nuisance but as an integral feature that provides the variability necessary for sampling during inference. We demonstrate how the network can learn the likelihood model, as well as the transition probabilities underlying the dynamics, using a Hebbian learning rule. We present results illustrating the ability of the network to perform inference and learning for arbitrary hidden Markov models.

Contingency inferences driven by base rates: Valid by sampling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Florian Kutzner

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Fiedler et al. (2009, reviewed evidence for the utilization of a contingency inference strategy termed pseudocontingencies (PCs. In PCs, the more frequent levels (and, by implication, the less frequent levels are assumed to be associated. PCs have been obtained using a wide range of task settings and dependent measures. Yet, the readiness with which decision makers rely on PCs is poorly understood. A computer simulation explored two potential sources of subjective validity of PCs. First, PCs are shown to perform above chance level when the task is to infer the sign of moderate to strong population contingencies from a sample of observations. Second, contingency inferences based on PCs and inferences based on cell frequencies are shown to partially agree across samples. Intriguingly, this criterion and convergent validity are by-products of random sampling error, highlighting the inductive nature of contingency inferences.

Non-robust dynamic inferences from macroeconometric models: Bifurcation stratification of confidence regions

Science.gov (United States)

Barnett, William A.; Duzhak, Evgeniya Aleksandrovna

2008-06-01

Grandmont [J.M. Grandmont, On endogenous competitive business cycles, Econometrica 53 (1985) 995-1045] found that the parameter space of the most classical dynamic models is stratified into an infinite number of subsets supporting an infinite number of different kinds of dynamics, from monotonic stability at one extreme to chaos at the other extreme, and with many forms of multiperiodic dynamics in between. The econometric implications of Grandmont’s findings are particularly important, if bifurcation boundaries cross the confidence regions surrounding parameter estimates in policy-relevant models. Stratification of a confidence region into bifurcated subsets seriously damages robustness of dynamical inferences. Recently, interest in policy in some circles has moved to New-Keynesian models. As a result, in this paper we explore bifurcation within the class of New-Keynesian models. We develop the econometric theory needed to locate bifurcation boundaries in log-linearized New-Keynesian models with Taylor policy rules or inflation-targeting policy rules. Central results needed in this research are our theorems on the existence and location of Hopf bifurcation boundaries in each of the cases that we consider.

Reinforcement and inference in cross-situational word learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Tilles, Paulo F C; Fontanari, José F

2013-01-01

Cross-situational word learning is based on the notion that a learner can determine the referent of a word by finding something in common across many observed uses of that word. Here we propose an adaptive learning algorithm that contains a parameter that controls the strength of the reinforcement applied to associations between concurrent words and referents, and a parameter that regulates inference, which includes built-in biases, such as mutual exclusivity, and information of past learning events. By adjusting these parameters so that the model predictions agree with data from representative experiments on cross-situational word learning, we were able to explain the learning strategies adopted by the participants of those experiments in terms of a trade-off between reinforcement and inference. These strategies can vary wildly depending on the conditions of the experiments. For instance, for fast mapping experiments (i.e., the correct referent could, in principle, be inferred in a single observation) inference is prevalent, whereas for segregated contextual diversity experiments (i.e., the referents are separated in groups and are exhibited with members of their groups only) reinforcement is predominant. Other experiments are explained with more balanced doses of reinforcement and inference.

Data-driven inference for the spatial scan statistic.

Science.gov (United States)

Almeida, Alexandre C L; Duarte, Anderson R; Duczmal, Luiz H; Oliveira, Fernando L P; Takahashi, Ricardo H C

2011-08-02

Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic for aggregated area maps searches for clusters of cases without specifying their size (number of areas) or geographic location in advance. Their statistical significance is tested while adjusting for the multiple testing inherent in such a procedure. However, as is shown in this work, this adjustment is not done in an even manner for all possible cluster sizes. A modification is proposed to the usual inference test of the spatial scan statistic, incorporating additional information about the size of the most likely cluster found. A new interpretation of the results of the spatial scan statistic is done, posing a modified inference question: what is the probability that the null hypothesis is rejected for the original observed cases map with a most likely cluster of size k, taking into account only those most likely clusters of size k found under null hypothesis for comparison? This question is especially important when the p-value computed by the usual inference process is near the alpha significance level, regarding the correctness of the decision based in this inference. A practical procedure is provided to make more accurate inferences about the most likely cluster found by the spatial scan statistic.

Eight challenges in phylodynamic inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon D.W. Frost

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The field of phylodynamics, which attempts to enhance our understanding of infectious disease dynamics using pathogen phylogenies, has made great strides in the past decade. Basic epidemiological and evolutionary models are now well characterized with inferential frameworks in place. However, significant challenges remain in extending phylodynamic inference to more complex systems. These challenges include accounting for evolutionary complexities such as changing mutation rates, selection, reassortment, and recombination, as well as epidemiological complexities such as stochastic population dynamics, host population structure, and different patterns at the within-host and between-host scales. An additional challenge exists in making efficient inferences from an ever increasing corpus of sequence data.

Religion's relationship with social boundaries surrounding gender ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Religion's relationship with social boundaries surrounding gender. ... is associated with segregation, marginalization and differentiation between men and women. ... are necessary in the society it should not be mistaken for gender inequality.

Human Inferences about Sequences: A Minimal Transition Probability Model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Florent Meyniel

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The brain constantly infers the causes of the inputs it receives and uses these inferences to generate statistical expectations about future observations. Experimental evidence for these expectations and their violations include explicit reports, sequential effects on reaction times, and mismatch or surprise signals recorded in electrophysiology and functional MRI. Here, we explore the hypothesis that the brain acts as a near-optimal inference device that constantly attempts to infer the time-varying matrix of transition probabilities between the stimuli it receives, even when those stimuli are in fact fully unpredictable. This parsimonious Bayesian model, with a single free parameter, accounts for a broad range of findings on surprise signals, sequential effects and the perception of randomness. Notably, it explains the pervasive asymmetry between repetitions and alternations encountered in those studies. Our analysis suggests that a neural machinery for inferring transition probabilities lies at the core of human sequence knowledge.

Vasculature surrounding a nodule: A novel lung cancer biomarker.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xiaohua; Leader, Joseph K; Wang, Renwei; Wilson, David; Herman, James; Yuan, Jian-Min; Pu, Jiantao

2017-12-01

To investigate whether the vessels surrounding a nodule depicted on non-contrast, low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) can discriminate benign and malignant screen detected nodules. We collected a dataset consisting of LDCT scans acquired on 100 subjects from the Pittsburgh Lung Screening study (PLuSS). Fifty subjects were diagnosed with lung cancer and 50 subjects had suspicious nodules later proven benign. For the lung cancer cases, the location of the malignant nodule in the LDCT scans was known; while for the benign cases, the largest nodule in the LDCT scan was used in the analysis. A computer algorithm was developed to identify surrounding vessels and quantify the number and volume of vessels that were connected or near the nodule. A nonparametric receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed based on a single nodule per subject to assess the discriminability of the surrounding vessels to provide a lung cancer diagnosis. Odds ratio (OR) were computed to determine the probability of a nodule being lung cancer based on the vessel features. The areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) for vessel count and vessel volume were 0.722 (95% CI=0.616-0.811, plung cancer group 9.7 (±9.6) compared to the non-lung cancer group 4.0 (±4.3) CONCLUSION: Our preliminary results showed that malignant nodules are often surrounded by more vessels compared to benign nodules, suggesting that the surrounding vessel characteristics could serve as lung cancer biomarker for indeterminate nodules detected during LDCT lung cancer screening using only the information collected during the initial visit. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Making Type Inference Practical

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schwartzbach, Michael Ignatieff; Oxhøj, Nicholas; Palsberg, Jens

1992-01-01

We present the implementation of a type inference algorithm for untyped object-oriented programs with inheritance, assignments, and late binding. The algorithm significantly improves our previous one, presented at OOPSLA'91, since it can handle collection classes, such as List, in a useful way. Abo......, the complexity has been dramatically improved, from exponential time to low polynomial time. The implementation uses the techniques of incremental graph construction and constraint template instantiation to avoid representing intermediate results, doing superfluous work, and recomputing type information....... Experiments indicate that the implementation type checks as much as 100 lines pr. second. This results in a mature product, on which a number of tools can be based, for example a safety tool, an image compression tool, a code optimization tool, and an annotation tool. This may make type inference for object...

Examples in parametric inference with R

CERN Document Server

Dixit, Ulhas Jayram

2016-01-01

This book discusses examples in parametric inference with R. Combining basic theory with modern approaches, it presents the latest developments and trends in statistical inference for students who do not have an advanced mathematical and statistical background. The topics discussed in the book are fundamental and common to many fields of statistical inference and thus serve as a point of departure for in-depth study. The book is divided into eight chapters: Chapter 1 provides an overview of topics on sufficiency and completeness, while Chapter 2 briefly discusses unbiased estimation. Chapter 3 focuses on the study of moments and maximum likelihood estimators, and Chapter 4 presents bounds for the variance. In Chapter 5, topics on consistent estimator are discussed. Chapter 6 discusses Bayes, while Chapter 7 studies some more powerful tests. Lastly, Chapter 8 examines unbiased and other tests. Senior undergraduate and graduate students in statistics and mathematics, and those who have taken an introductory cou...

Causal Effect Inference with Deep Latent-Variable Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Louizos, C; Shalit, U.; Mooij, J.; Sontag, D.; Zemel, R.; Welling, M.

2017-01-01

Learning individual-level causal effects from observational data, such as inferring the most effective medication for a specific patient, is a problem of growing importance for policy makers. The most important aspect of inferring causal effects from observational data is the handling of

Causal inference in survival analysis using pseudo-observations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Per K; Syriopoulou, Elisavet; Parner, Erik T

2017-01-01

Causal inference for non-censored response variables, such as binary or quantitative outcomes, is often based on either (1) direct standardization ('G-formula') or (2) inverse probability of treatment assignment weights ('propensity score'). To do causal inference in survival analysis, one needs ...

Statistical Inference at Work: Statistical Process Control as an Example

Science.gov (United States)

Bakker, Arthur; Kent, Phillip; Derry, Jan; Noss, Richard; Hoyles, Celia

2008-01-01

To characterise statistical inference in the workplace this paper compares a prototypical type of statistical inference at work, statistical process control (SPC), with a type of statistical inference that is better known in educational settings, hypothesis testing. Although there are some similarities between the reasoning structure involved in…

On quantum statistical inference

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Barndorff-Nielsen, O.E.; Gill, R.D.; Jupp, P.E.

2003-01-01

Interest in problems of statistical inference connected to measurements of quantum systems has recently increased substantially, in step with dramatic new developments in experimental techniques for studying small quantum systems. Furthermore, developments in the theory of quantum measurements have

Statistical inference

CERN Document Server

Rohatgi, Vijay K

2003-01-01

Unified treatment of probability and statistics examines and analyzes the relationship between the two fields, exploring inferential issues. Numerous problems, examples, and diagrams--some with solutions--plus clear-cut, highlighted summaries of results. Advanced undergraduate to graduate level. Contents: 1. Introduction. 2. Probability Model. 3. Probability Distributions. 4. Introduction to Statistical Inference. 5. More on Mathematical Expectation. 6. Some Discrete Models. 7. Some Continuous Models. 8. Functions of Random Variables and Random Vectors. 9. Large-Sample Theory. 10. General Meth

The Impact of Contextual Clue Selection on Inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leila Barati

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Linguistic information can be conveyed in the form of speech and written text, but it is the content of the message that is ultimately essential for higher-level processes in language comprehension, such as making inferences and associations between text information and knowledge about the world. Linguistically, inference is the shovel that allows receivers to dig meaning out from the text with selecting different embedded contextual clues. Naturally, people with different world experiences infer similar contextual situations differently. Lack of contextual knowledge of the target language can present an obstacle to comprehension (Anderson & Lynch, 2003. This paper tries to investigate how true contextual clue selection from the text can influence listener’s inference. In the present study 60 male and female teenagers (13-19 and 60 male and female young adults (20-26 were selected randomly based on Oxford Placement Test (OPT. During the study two fiction and two non-fiction passages were read to the participants in the experimental and control groups respectively and they were given scores according to Lexile’s Score (LS[1] based on their correct inference and logical thinking ability. In general the results show that participants’ clue selection based on their personal schematic references and background knowledge differ between teenagers and young adults and influence inference and listening comprehension. [1]- This is a framework for reading and listening which matches the appropriate score to each text based on degree of difficulty of text and each text was given a Lexile score from zero to four.

Childhood Suicide and Myths Surrounding It.

Science.gov (United States)

Greene, Dorothea B.

1994-01-01

Dispels five misconceptions surrounding the suicide of children: that children under the age of six do not commit suicide; that suicide in latency years is extremely rare; that psychodynamically and developmentally true depression is not possible in childhood; that child cannot understand finality of death; and that children are cognitively and…

An aerial radiological survey of the Oyster Creek Nuclear Power Plant and surrounding area, Forked River, New Jersey. Date of survey: September 18--25, 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hopkins, H.A.; McCall, K.A.

1994-05-01

An aerial radiological survey was conducted over the Oyster Creek Nuclear Power Plant in Forked River, New Jersey, during the period September 18 through September 24, 1992. The survey was conducted at an altitude of 150 feet (46 meters) over a 26-square-mile (67-square-kilometer) area centered on the power station. The purpose of the survey was to document the terrestrial gamma radiation environment of the Oyster Creek Nuclear Power plant and surrounding area. The results of the aerial survey are reported as inferred gamma radiation exposure rates at 1 meter above ground level in the form of a contour map. Outside the plant boundary, exposure rates were found to vary between 4 and 10 microroentgens per hour and were attributed to naturally-occurring uranium, thorium, and radioactive potassium gamma emitters. The aerial data were compared to ground-based benchmark exposure rate measurements and radionuclide assays of soil samples obtained within the survey boundary. The ground-based measurements were found to be in good agreement with those inferred from the aerial measuring system. A previous survey of the power plant was conducted in August 1969 during its initial startup phase. Exposure rates and radioactive isotopes revealed in both surveys were consistent and within normal terrestrial background levels

Inferring Demographic History Using Two-Locus Statistics.

Science.gov (United States)

Ragsdale, Aaron P; Gutenkunst, Ryan N

2017-06-01

Population demographic history may be learned from contemporary genetic variation data. Methods based on aggregating the statistics of many single loci into an allele frequency spectrum (AFS) have proven powerful, but such methods ignore potentially informative patterns of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between neighboring loci. To leverage such patterns, we developed a composite-likelihood framework for inferring demographic history from aggregated statistics of pairs of loci. Using this framework, we show that two-locus statistics are more sensitive to demographic history than single-locus statistics such as the AFS. In particular, two-locus statistics escape the notorious confounding of depth and duration of a bottleneck, and they provide a means to estimate effective population size based on the recombination rather than mutation rate. We applied our approach to a Zambian population of Drosophila melanogaster Notably, using both single- and two-locus statistics, we inferred a substantially lower ancestral effective population size than previous works and did not infer a bottleneck history. Together, our results demonstrate the broad potential for two-locus statistics to enable powerful population genetic inference. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

Statistical Inference on the Canadian Middle Class

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Russell Davidson

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Conventional wisdom says that the middle classes in many developed countries have recently suffered losses, in terms of both the share of the total population belonging to the middle class, and also their share in total income. Here, distribution-free methods are developed for inference on these shares, by means of deriving expressions for their asymptotic variances of sample estimates, and the covariance of the estimates. Asymptotic inference can be undertaken based on asymptotic normality. Bootstrap inference can be expected to be more reliable, and appropriate bootstrap procedures are proposed. As an illustration, samples of individual earnings drawn from Canadian census data are used to test various hypotheses about the middle-class shares, and confidence intervals for them are computed. It is found that, for the earlier censuses, sample sizes are large enough for asymptotic and bootstrap inference to be almost identical, but that, in the twenty-first century, the bootstrap fails on account of a strange phenomenon whereby many presumably different incomes in the data are rounded to one and the same value. Another difference between the centuries is the appearance of heavy right-hand tails in the income distributions of both men and women.

The importance of learning when making inferences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jorg Rieskamp

2008-03-01

Full Text Available The assumption that people possess a repertoire of strategies to solve the inference problems they face has been made repeatedly. The experimental findings of two previous studies on strategy selection are reexamined from a learning perspective, which argues that people learn to select strategies for making probabilistic inferences. This learning process is modeled with the strategy selection learning (SSL theory, which assumes that people develop subjective expectancies for the strategies they have. They select strategies proportional to their expectancies, which are updated on the basis of experience. For the study by Newell, Weston, and Shanks (2003 it can be shown that people did not anticipate the success of a strategy from the beginning of the experiment. Instead, the behavior observed at the end of the experiment was the result of a learning process that can be described by the SSL theory. For the second study, by Br"oder and Schiffer (2006, the SSL theory is able to provide an explanation for why participants only slowly adapted to new environments in a dynamic inference situation. The reanalysis of the previous studies illustrates the importance of learning for probabilistic inferences.

Bayesian inference of substrate properties from film behavior

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aggarwal, R; Demkowicz, M J; Marzouk, Y M

2015-01-01

We demonstrate that by observing the behavior of a film deposited on a substrate, certain features of the substrate may be inferred with quantified uncertainty using Bayesian methods. We carry out this demonstration on an illustrative film/substrate model where the substrate is a Gaussian random field and the film is a two-component mixture that obeys the Cahn–Hilliard equation. We construct a stochastic reduced order model to describe the film/substrate interaction and use it to infer substrate properties from film behavior. This quantitative inference strategy may be adapted to other film/substrate systems. (paper)

Brain Imaging, Forward Inference, and Theories of Reasoning

Science.gov (United States)

Heit, Evan

2015-01-01

This review focuses on the issue of how neuroimaging studies address theoretical accounts of reasoning, through the lens of the method of forward inference (Henson, 2005, 2006). After theories of deductive and inductive reasoning are briefly presented, the method of forward inference for distinguishing between psychological theories based on brain imaging evidence is critically reviewed. Brain imaging studies of reasoning, comparing deductive and inductive arguments, comparing meaningful versus non-meaningful material, investigating hemispheric localization, and comparing conditional and relational arguments, are assessed in light of the method of forward inference. Finally, conclusions are drawn with regard to future research opportunities. PMID:25620926

Brain imaging, forward inference, and theories of reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Heit, Evan

2014-01-01

This review focuses on the issue of how neuroimaging studies address theoretical accounts of reasoning, through the lens of the method of forward inference (Henson, 2005, 2006). After theories of deductive and inductive reasoning are briefly presented, the method of forward inference for distinguishing between psychological theories based on brain imaging evidence is critically reviewed. Brain imaging studies of reasoning, comparing deductive and inductive arguments, comparing meaningful versus non-meaningful material, investigating hemispheric localization, and comparing conditional and relational arguments, are assessed in light of the method of forward inference. Finally, conclusions are drawn with regard to future research opportunities.

Data-driven inference for the spatial scan statistic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Duczmal Luiz H

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic for aggregated area maps searches for clusters of cases without specifying their size (number of areas or geographic location in advance. Their statistical significance is tested while adjusting for the multiple testing inherent in such a procedure. However, as is shown in this work, this adjustment is not done in an even manner for all possible cluster sizes. Results A modification is proposed to the usual inference test of the spatial scan statistic, incorporating additional information about the size of the most likely cluster found. A new interpretation of the results of the spatial scan statistic is done, posing a modified inference question: what is the probability that the null hypothesis is rejected for the original observed cases map with a most likely cluster of size k, taking into account only those most likely clusters of size k found under null hypothesis for comparison? This question is especially important when the p-value computed by the usual inference process is near the alpha significance level, regarding the correctness of the decision based in this inference. Conclusions A practical procedure is provided to make more accurate inferences about the most likely cluster found by the spatial scan statistic.

Inferred rheological structure and mantle conditions from postseismic deformation following the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Dickinson-Lovell, Haylee; Huang, Mong-Han; Freed, Andrew M.; Fielding, Eric; Bürgmann, Roland; Andronicos, Christopher

2018-06-01

The 2010 Mw7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake provides a unique target of postseismic study as deformation extends across several distinct geological provinces, including the cold Mesozoic arc crust of the Peninsular Ranges and newly formed, hot, extending lithosphere within the Salton Trough. We use five years of global positioning system measurements to invert for afterslip and constrain a 3-D finite-element model that simulates viscoelastic relaxation. We find that afterslip cannot readily explain far-field displacements (more than 50 km from the epicentre). These displacements are best explained by viscoelastic relaxation of a horizontally and vertically heterogeneous lower crust and upper mantle. Lower viscosities beneath the Salton Trough compared to the Peninsular Ranges and other surrounding regions are consistent with inferred differences in the respective geotherms. Our inferred viscosity structure suggests that the depth of the Lithosphere/Asthenosphere Boundary (LAB) is ˜65 km below the Peninsular Ranges and ˜32 km beneath the Salton Trough. These depths are shallower than the corresponding seismic LAB. This suggests that the onset of partial melting in peridotite may control the depth to the base of the mechanical lithosphere. In contrast, the seismic LAB may correspond to an increase in the partial melt percentage associated with the change from a conductive to an adiabatic geotherm.

Statistical inference an integrated approach

CERN Document Server

Migon, Helio S; Louzada, Francisco

2014-01-01

Introduction Information The concept of probability Assessing subjective probabilities An example Linear algebra and probability Notation Outline of the bookElements of Inference Common statistical modelsLikelihood-based functions Bayes theorem Exchangeability Sufficiency and exponential family Parameter elimination Prior Distribution Entirely subjective specification Specification through functional forms Conjugacy with the exponential family Non-informative priors Hierarchical priors Estimation Introduction to decision theoryBayesian point estimation Classical point estimation Empirical Bayes estimation Comparison of estimators Interval estimation Estimation in the Normal model Approximating Methods The general problem of inference Optimization techniquesAsymptotic theory Other analytical approximations Numerical integration methods Simulation methods Hypothesis Testing Introduction Classical hypothesis testingBayesian hypothesis testing Hypothesis testing and confidence intervalsAsymptotic tests Prediction...

Statistical learning and selective inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Jonathan; Tibshirani, Robert J

2015-06-23

We describe the problem of "selective inference." This addresses the following challenge: Having mined a set of data to find potential associations, how do we properly assess the strength of these associations? The fact that we have "cherry-picked"--searched for the strongest associations--means that we must set a higher bar for declaring significant the associations that we see. This challenge becomes more important in the era of big data and complex statistical modeling. The cherry tree (dataset) can be very large and the tools for cherry picking (statistical learning methods) are now very sophisticated. We describe some recent new developments in selective inference and illustrate their use in forward stepwise regression, the lasso, and principal components analysis.

Modifications of center-surround, spot detection and dot-pattern selective operators

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Petkov, Nicolai; Visser, Wicher T.

2005-01-01

This paper describes modifications of the models of center-surround and dot-pattern selective cells proposed previously. These modifications concern mainly the normalization of the difference of Gaussians (DoG) function used to model center-surround receptive fields, the normalization of

Object-Oriented Type Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schwartzbach, Michael Ignatieff; Palsberg, Jens

1991-01-01

We present a new approach to inferring types in untyped object-oriented programs with inheritance, assignments, and late binding. It guarantees that all messages are understood, annotates the program with type information, allows polymorphic methods, and can be used as the basis of an op...

The Probabilistic Convolution Tree: Efficient Exact Bayesian Inference for Faster LC-MS/MS Protein Inference

Science.gov (United States)

Serang, Oliver

2014-01-01

Exact Bayesian inference can sometimes be performed efficiently for special cases where a function has commutative and associative symmetry of its inputs (called “causal independence”). For this reason, it is desirable to exploit such symmetry on big data sets. Here we present a method to exploit a general form of this symmetry on probabilistic adder nodes by transforming those probabilistic adder nodes into a probabilistic convolution tree with which dynamic programming computes exact probabilities. A substantial speedup is demonstrated using an illustration example that can arise when identifying splice forms with bottom-up mass spectrometry-based proteomics. On this example, even state-of-the-art exact inference algorithms require a runtime more than exponential in the number of splice forms considered. By using the probabilistic convolution tree, we reduce the runtime to and the space to where is the number of variables joined by an additive or cardinal operator. This approach, which can also be used with junction tree inference, is applicable to graphs with arbitrary dependency on counting variables or cardinalities and can be used on diverse problems and fields like forward error correcting codes, elemental decomposition, and spectral demixing. The approach also trivially generalizes to multiple dimensions. PMID:24626234

Reward inference by primate prefrontal and striatal neurons.

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Xiaochuan; Fan, Hongwei; Sawa, Kosuke; Tsuda, Ichiro; Tsukada, Minoru; Sakagami, Masamichi

2014-01-22

The brain contains multiple yet distinct systems involved in reward prediction. To understand the nature of these processes, we recorded single-unit activity from the lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) and the striatum in monkeys performing a reward inference task using an asymmetric reward schedule. We found that neurons both in the LPFC and in the striatum predicted reward values for stimuli that had been previously well experienced with set reward quantities in the asymmetric reward task. Importantly, these LPFC neurons could predict the reward value of a stimulus using transitive inference even when the monkeys had not yet learned the stimulus-reward association directly; whereas these striatal neurons did not show such an ability. Nevertheless, because there were two set amounts of reward (large and small), the selected striatal neurons were able to exclusively infer the reward value (e.g., large) of one novel stimulus from a pair after directly experiencing the alternative stimulus with the other reward value (e.g., small). Our results suggest that although neurons that predict reward value for old stimuli in the LPFC could also do so for new stimuli via transitive inference, those in the striatum could only predict reward for new stimuli via exclusive inference. Moreover, the striatum showed more complex functions than was surmised previously for model-free learning.

Surrounding rock stress analysis of underground high level waste repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Wengang; Wang Ju; Wang Guangdi

2006-01-01

During decay of nuclear waste, enormous energy was released, which results in temperature change of surrounding rock of depository. Thermal stress was produced because thermal expansion of rock was controlled. Internal structure of surrounding rock was damaged and strength of rock was weakened. So, variation of stress was a dynamic process with the variation of temperature. BeiShan region of Gansu province was determined to be the depository field in the future, it is essential to make research on granite in this region. In the process of experiment, basic physical parameters of granite were analyzed preliminary with MTS. Long range temperature and stress filed was simulated considering the damage effect of surrounding rock, and rules of temperature and stress was achieved. (authors)

Bootstrap inference when using multiple imputation.

Science.gov (United States)

Schomaker, Michael; Heumann, Christian

2018-04-16

Many modern estimators require bootstrapping to calculate confidence intervals because either no analytic standard error is available or the distribution of the parameter of interest is nonsymmetric. It remains however unclear how to obtain valid bootstrap inference when dealing with multiple imputation to address missing data. We present 4 methods that are intuitively appealing, easy to implement, and combine bootstrap estimation with multiple imputation. We show that 3 of the 4 approaches yield valid inference, but that the performance of the methods varies with respect to the number of imputed data sets and the extent of missingness. Simulation studies reveal the behavior of our approaches in finite samples. A topical analysis from HIV treatment research, which determines the optimal timing of antiretroviral treatment initiation in young children, demonstrates the practical implications of the 4 methods in a sophisticated and realistic setting. This analysis suffers from missing data and uses the g-formula for inference, a method for which no standard errors are available. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evolutionary inference via the Poisson Indel Process.

Science.gov (United States)

Bouchard-Côté, Alexandre; Jordan, Michael I

2013-01-22

We address the problem of the joint statistical inference of phylogenetic trees and multiple sequence alignments from unaligned molecular sequences. This problem is generally formulated in terms of string-valued evolutionary processes along the branches of a phylogenetic tree. The classic evolutionary process, the TKF91 model [Thorne JL, Kishino H, Felsenstein J (1991) J Mol Evol 33(2):114-124] is a continuous-time Markov chain model composed of insertion, deletion, and substitution events. Unfortunately, this model gives rise to an intractable computational problem: The computation of the marginal likelihood under the TKF91 model is exponential in the number of taxa. In this work, we present a stochastic process, the Poisson Indel Process (PIP), in which the complexity of this computation is reduced to linear. The Poisson Indel Process is closely related to the TKF91 model, differing only in its treatment of insertions, but it has a global characterization as a Poisson process on the phylogeny. Standard results for Poisson processes allow key computations to be decoupled, which yields the favorable computational profile of inference under the PIP model. We present illustrative experiments in which Bayesian inference under the PIP model is compared with separate inference of phylogenies and alignments.

System Support for Forensic Inference

Science.gov (United States)

Gehani, Ashish; Kirchner, Florent; Shankar, Natarajan

Digital evidence is playing an increasingly important role in prosecuting crimes. The reasons are manifold: financially lucrative targets are now connected online, systems are so complex that vulnerabilities abound and strong digital identities are being adopted, making audit trails more useful. If the discoveries of forensic analysts are to hold up to scrutiny in court, they must meet the standard for scientific evidence. Software systems are currently developed without consideration of this fact. This paper argues for the development of a formal framework for constructing “digital artifacts” that can serve as proxies for physical evidence; a system so imbued would facilitate sound digital forensic inference. A case study involving a filesystem augmentation that provides transparent support for forensic inference is described.

Geostatistical inference using crosshole ground-penetrating radar

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Looms, Majken C; Hansen, Thomas Mejer; Cordua, Knud Skou

2010-01-01

of the subsurface are used to evaluate the uncertainty of the inversion estimate. We have explored the full potential of the geostatistical inference method using several synthetic models of varying correlation structures and have tested the influence of different assumptions concerning the choice of covariance...... reflection profile. Furthermore, the inferred values of the subsurface global variance and the mean velocity have been corroborated with moisturecontent measurements, obtained gravimetrically from samples collected at the field site....

Neutron spectrum in small iron pile surrounded by lead reflector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kimura, Itsuro; Hayashi, S.A.; Kobayashi, Katsuhei; Matsumura, Tetsuo; Nishihara, Hiroshi.

1978-01-01

In order to save the quantity of sample material, a possibility to assess group constants of a reactor material through measurement and analysis of neutron spectrum in a small sample pile surrounded by a reflector of heavy moderator, was investigated. As the sample and the reflector, we chose iron and lead, respectively. Although the time dispersion in moderation of neutrons was considerably prolonged by the lead reflector, this hardly interferes with the assessment of group constants. Theoretical calculation revealed that both the neutron flux spectrum and the sensitivity coefficient of group constants in an iron sphere, 35 cm in diameter surrounded by the lead reflector, 25 cm thick, were close to those of the bare iron sphere, 108 cm in diameter. The neutron spectra in a small iron pile surrounded by a lead reflector were experimentally obtained by the time-of-flight method with an electron linear accelerator and the result was compared with the predicted values. It could be confirmed that a small sample pile surrounded by a reflector, such as lead, was as useful as a much larger bulk pile for the assessment of group constants of a reactor material. (auth.)

Smart Chips for Smart Surroundings -- 4S

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schuler, Eberhard; König, Ralf; Becker, Jürgen; Rauwerda, G.K.; van de Burgwal, M.D.; Smit, Gerardus Johannes Maria; Cardoso, João M.P.; Hübner, Michael

2011-01-01

The overall mission of the 4S project (Smart Chips for Smart Surroundings) was to define and develop efficient flexible, reconfigurable core building blocks, including the supporting tools, for future Ambient System Devices. Reconfigurability offers the needed flexibility and adaptability, it

Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuan Guo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM, Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM, and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM, and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

Working memory supports inference learning just like classification learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Craig, Stewart; Lewandowsky, Stephan

2013-08-01

Recent research has found a positive relationship between people's working memory capacity (WMC) and their speed of category learning. To date, only classification-learning tasks have been considered, in which people learn to assign category labels to objects. It is unknown whether learning to make inferences about category features might also be related to WMC. We report data from a study in which 119 participants undertook classification learning and inference learning, and completed a series of WMC tasks. Working memory capacity was positively related to people's classification and inference learning performance.

Statistical inference for stochastic processes

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Basawa, Ishwar V; Prakasa Rao, B. L. S

1980-01-01

The aim of this monograph is to attempt to reduce the gap between theory and applications in the area of stochastic modelling, by directing the interest of future researchers to the inference aspects...

Inference of Large Phylogenies Using Neighbour-Joining

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Simonsen, Martin; Mailund, Thomas; Pedersen, Christian Nørgaard Storm

2011-01-01

The neighbour-joining method is a widely used method for phylogenetic reconstruction which scales to thousands of taxa. However, advances in sequencing technology have made data sets with more than 10,000 related taxa widely available. Inference of such large phylogenies takes hours or days using...... the Neighbour-Joining method on a normal desktop computer because of the O(n^3) running time. RapidNJ is a search heuristic which reduce the running time of the Neighbour-Joining method significantly but at the cost of an increased memory consumption making inference of large phylogenies infeasible. We present...... two extensions for RapidNJ which reduce the memory requirements and \\makebox{allows} phylogenies with more than 50,000 taxa to be inferred efficiently on a desktop computer. Furthermore, an improved version of the search heuristic is presented which reduces the running time of RapidNJ on many data...

Statistical causal inferences and their applications in public health research

CERN Document Server

Wu, Pan; Chen, Ding-Geng

2016-01-01

This book compiles and presents new developments in statistical causal inference. The accompanying data and computer programs are publicly available so readers may replicate the model development and data analysis presented in each chapter. In this way, methodology is taught so that readers may implement it directly. The book brings together experts engaged in causal inference research to present and discuss recent issues in causal inference methodological development. This is also a timely look at causal inference applied to scenarios that range from clinical trials to mediation and public health research more broadly. In an academic setting, this book will serve as a reference and guide to a course in causal inference at the graduate level (Master's or Doctorate). It is particularly relevant for students pursuing degrees in Statistics, Biostatistics and Computational Biology. Researchers and data analysts in public health and biomedical research will also find this book to be an important reference.

The anatomy of choice: active inference and agency

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karl eFriston

2013-09-01

Full Text Available This paper considers agency in the setting of embodied or active inference. In brief, we associate a sense of agency with prior beliefs about action and ask what sorts of beliefs underlie optimal behaviour. In particular, we consider prior beliefs that action minimises the Kullback-Leibler divergence between desired states and attainable states in the future. This allows one to formulate bounded rationality as approximate Bayesian inference that optimises a free energy bound on model evidence. We show that constructs like expected utility, exploration bonuses, softmax choice rules and optimism bias emerge as natural consequences of this formulation. Previous accounts of active inference have focused on predictive coding and Bayesian filtering schemes for minimising free energy. Here, we consider variational Bayes as an alternative scheme that provides formal constraints on the computational anatomy of inference and action – constraints that are remarkably consistent with neuroanatomy. Furthermore, this scheme contextualises optimal decision theory and economic (utilitarian formulations as pure inference problems. For example, expected utility theory emerges as a special case of free energy minimisation, where the sensitivity or inverse temperature (of softmax functions and quantal response equilibria has a unique and Bayes-optimal solution – that minimises free energy. This sensitivity corresponds to the precision of beliefs about behaviour, such that attainable goals are afforded a higher precision or confidence. In turn, this means that optimal behaviour entails a representation of confidence about outcomes that are under an agent's control.

The anatomy of choice: active inference and agency.

Science.gov (United States)

Friston, Karl; Schwartenbeck, Philipp; Fitzgerald, Thomas; Moutoussis, Michael; Behrens, Timothy; Dolan, Raymond J

2013-01-01

This paper considers agency in the setting of embodied or active inference. In brief, we associate a sense of agency with prior beliefs about action and ask what sorts of beliefs underlie optimal behavior. In particular, we consider prior beliefs that action minimizes the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between desired states and attainable states in the future. This allows one to formulate bounded rationality as approximate Bayesian inference that optimizes a free energy bound on model evidence. We show that constructs like expected utility, exploration bonuses, softmax choice rules and optimism bias emerge as natural consequences of this formulation. Previous accounts of active inference have focused on predictive coding and Bayesian filtering schemes for minimizing free energy. Here, we consider variational Bayes as an alternative scheme that provides formal constraints on the computational anatomy of inference and action-constraints that are remarkably consistent with neuroanatomy. Furthermore, this scheme contextualizes optimal decision theory and economic (utilitarian) formulations as pure inference problems. For example, expected utility theory emerges as a special case of free energy minimization, where the sensitivity or inverse temperature (of softmax functions and quantal response equilibria) has a unique and Bayes-optimal solution-that minimizes free energy. This sensitivity corresponds to the precision of beliefs about behavior, such that attainable goals are afforded a higher precision or confidence. In turn, this means that optimal behavior entails a representation of confidence about outcomes that are under an agent's control.

Universal Darwinism As a Process of Bayesian Inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, John O

2016-01-01

Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes' Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus, natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians). As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational) free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an "experiment" in the external world environment, and the results of that "experiment" or the "surprise" entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the "experiment." Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of "surprise" experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature.

sick: The Spectroscopic Inference Crank

Science.gov (United States)

Casey, Andrew R.

2016-03-01

There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives that remain severely under-utilized. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analyzing large volumes of spectra contributes to this situation, which is poised to worsen as large surveys successively release orders of magnitude more spectra. In this article I introduce sick, the spectroscopic inference crank, a flexible and fast Bayesian tool for inferring astrophysical parameters from spectra. sick is agnostic to the wavelength coverage, resolving power, or general data format, allowing any user to easily construct a generative model for their data, regardless of its source. sick can be used to provide a nearest-neighbor estimate of model parameters, a numerically optimized point estimate, or full Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability distributions. This generality empowers any astronomer to capitalize on the plethora of published synthetic and observed spectra, and make precise inferences for a host of astrophysical (and nuisance) quantities. Model intensities can be reliably approximated from existing grids of synthetic or observed spectra using linear multi-dimensional interpolation, or a Cannon-based model. Additional phenomena that transform the data (e.g., redshift, rotational broadening, continuum, spectral resolution) are incorporated as free parameters and can be marginalized away. Outlier pixels (e.g., cosmic rays or poorly modeled regimes) can be treated with a Gaussian mixture model, and a noise model is included to account for systematically underestimated variance. Combining these phenomena into a scalar-justified, quantitative model permits precise inferences with credible uncertainties on noisy data. I describe the common model features, the implementation details, and the default behavior, which is balanced to be suitable for most astronomical applications. Using a forward model on low-resolution, high signal

SICK: THE SPECTROSCOPIC INFERENCE CRANK

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Casey, Andrew R., E-mail: arc@ast.cam.ac.uk [Institute of Astronomy, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambdridge, CB3 0HA (United Kingdom)

2016-03-15

There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives that remain severely under-utilized. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analyzing large volumes of spectra contributes to this situation, which is poised to worsen as large surveys successively release orders of magnitude more spectra. In this article I introduce sick, the spectroscopic inference crank, a flexible and fast Bayesian tool for inferring astrophysical parameters from spectra. sick is agnostic to the wavelength coverage, resolving power, or general data format, allowing any user to easily construct a generative model for their data, regardless of its source. sick can be used to provide a nearest-neighbor estimate of model parameters, a numerically optimized point estimate, or full Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability distributions. This generality empowers any astronomer to capitalize on the plethora of published synthetic and observed spectra, and make precise inferences for a host of astrophysical (and nuisance) quantities. Model intensities can be reliably approximated from existing grids of synthetic or observed spectra using linear multi-dimensional interpolation, or a Cannon-based model. Additional phenomena that transform the data (e.g., redshift, rotational broadening, continuum, spectral resolution) are incorporated as free parameters and can be marginalized away. Outlier pixels (e.g., cosmic rays or poorly modeled regimes) can be treated with a Gaussian mixture model, and a noise model is included to account for systematically underestimated variance. Combining these phenomena into a scalar-justified, quantitative model permits precise inferences with credible uncertainties on noisy data. I describe the common model features, the implementation details, and the default behavior, which is balanced to be suitable for most astronomical applications. Using a forward model on low-resolution, high signal

SICK: THE SPECTROSCOPIC INFERENCE CRANK

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Casey, Andrew R.

2016-01-01

There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives that remain severely under-utilized. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analyzing large volumes of spectra contributes to this situation, which is poised to worsen as large surveys successively release orders of magnitude more spectra. In this article I introduce sick, the spectroscopic inference crank, a flexible and fast Bayesian tool for inferring astrophysical parameters from spectra. sick is agnostic to the wavelength coverage, resolving power, or general data format, allowing any user to easily construct a generative model for their data, regardless of its source. sick can be used to provide a nearest-neighbor estimate of model parameters, a numerically optimized point estimate, or full Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability distributions. This generality empowers any astronomer to capitalize on the plethora of published synthetic and observed spectra, and make precise inferences for a host of astrophysical (and nuisance) quantities. Model intensities can be reliably approximated from existing grids of synthetic or observed spectra using linear multi-dimensional interpolation, or a Cannon-based model. Additional phenomena that transform the data (e.g., redshift, rotational broadening, continuum, spectral resolution) are incorporated as free parameters and can be marginalized away. Outlier pixels (e.g., cosmic rays or poorly modeled regimes) can be treated with a Gaussian mixture model, and a noise model is included to account for systematically underestimated variance. Combining these phenomena into a scalar-justified, quantitative model permits precise inferences with credible uncertainties on noisy data. I describe the common model features, the implementation details, and the default behavior, which is balanced to be suitable for most astronomical applications. Using a forward model on low-resolution, high signal

On principles of inductive inference

OpenAIRE

Kostecki, Ryszard Paweł

2011-01-01

We propose an intersubjective epistemic approach to foundations of probability theory and statistical inference, based on relative entropy and category theory, and aimed to bypass the mathematical and conceptual problems of existing foundational approaches.

Model averaging, optimal inference and habit formation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas H B FitzGerald

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Postulating that the brain performs approximate Bayesian inference generates principled and empirically testable models of neuronal function – the subject of much current interest in neuroscience and related disciplines. Current formulations address inference and learning under some assumed and particular model. In reality, organisms are often faced with an additional challenge – that of determining which model or models of their environment are the best for guiding behaviour. Bayesian model averaging – which says that an agent should weight the predictions of different models according to their evidence – provides a principled way to solve this problem. Importantly, because model evidence is determined by both the accuracy and complexity of the model, optimal inference requires that these be traded off against one another. This means an agent’s behaviour should show an equivalent balance. We hypothesise that Bayesian model averaging plays an important role in cognition, given that it is both optimal and realisable within a plausible neuronal architecture. We outline model averaging and how it might be implemented, and then explore a number of implications for brain and behaviour. In particular, we propose that model averaging can explain a number of apparently suboptimal phenomena within the framework of approximate (bounded Bayesian inference, focussing particularly upon the relationship between goal-directed and habitual behaviour.

Bootstrapping phylogenies inferred from rearrangement data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lin Yu

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Large-scale sequencing of genomes has enabled the inference of phylogenies based on the evolution of genomic architecture, under such events as rearrangements, duplications, and losses. Many evolutionary models and associated algorithms have been designed over the last few years and have found use in comparative genomics and phylogenetic inference. However, the assessment of phylogenies built from such data has not been properly addressed to date. The standard method used in sequence-based phylogenetic inference is the bootstrap, but it relies on a large number of homologous characters that can be resampled; yet in the case of rearrangements, the entire genome is a single character. Alternatives such as the jackknife suffer from the same problem, while likelihood tests cannot be applied in the absence of well established probabilistic models. Results We present a new approach to the assessment of distance-based phylogenetic inference from whole-genome data; our approach combines features of the jackknife and the bootstrap and remains nonparametric. For each feature of our method, we give an equivalent feature in the sequence-based framework; we also present the results of extensive experimental testing, in both sequence-based and genome-based frameworks. Through the feature-by-feature comparison and the experimental results, we show that our bootstrapping approach is on par with the classic phylogenetic bootstrap used in sequence-based reconstruction, and we establish the clear superiority of the classic bootstrap for sequence data and of our corresponding new approach for rearrangement data over proposed variants. Finally, we test our approach on a small dataset of mammalian genomes, verifying that the support values match current thinking about the respective branches. Conclusions Our method is the first to provide a standard of assessment to match that of the classic phylogenetic bootstrap for aligned sequences. Its

Bootstrapping phylogenies inferred from rearrangement data.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yu; Rajan, Vaibhav; Moret, Bernard Me

2012-08-29

Large-scale sequencing of genomes has enabled the inference of phylogenies based on the evolution of genomic architecture, under such events as rearrangements, duplications, and losses. Many evolutionary models and associated algorithms have been designed over the last few years and have found use in comparative genomics and phylogenetic inference. However, the assessment of phylogenies built from such data has not been properly addressed to date. The standard method used in sequence-based phylogenetic inference is the bootstrap, but it relies on a large number of homologous characters that can be resampled; yet in the case of rearrangements, the entire genome is a single character. Alternatives such as the jackknife suffer from the same problem, while likelihood tests cannot be applied in the absence of well established probabilistic models. We present a new approach to the assessment of distance-based phylogenetic inference from whole-genome data; our approach combines features of the jackknife and the bootstrap and remains nonparametric. For each feature of our method, we give an equivalent feature in the sequence-based framework; we also present the results of extensive experimental testing, in both sequence-based and genome-based frameworks. Through the feature-by-feature comparison and the experimental results, we show that our bootstrapping approach is on par with the classic phylogenetic bootstrap used in sequence-based reconstruction, and we establish the clear superiority of the classic bootstrap for sequence data and of our corresponding new approach for rearrangement data over proposed variants. Finally, we test our approach on a small dataset of mammalian genomes, verifying that the support values match current thinking about the respective branches. Our method is the first to provide a standard of assessment to match that of the classic phylogenetic bootstrap for aligned sequences. Its support values follow a similar scale and its receiver

Classification versus inference learning contrasted with real-world categories.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Erin L; Ross, Brian H

2011-07-01

Categories are learned and used in a variety of ways, but the research focus has been on classification learning. Recent work contrasting classification with inference learning of categories found important later differences in category performance. However, theoretical accounts differ on whether this is due to an inherent difference between the tasks or to the implementation decisions. The inherent-difference explanation argues that inference learners focus on the internal structure of the categories--what each category is like--while classification learners focus on diagnostic information to predict category membership. In two experiments, using real-world categories and controlling for earlier methodological differences, inference learners learned more about what each category was like than did classification learners, as evidenced by higher performance on a novel classification test. These results suggest that there is an inherent difference between learning new categories by classifying an item versus inferring a feature.

Statistical inference via fiducial methods

OpenAIRE

Salomé, Diemer

1998-01-01

In this thesis the attention is restricted to inductive reasoning using a mathematical probability model. A statistical procedure prescribes, for every theoretically possible set of data, the inference about the unknown of interest. ... Zie: Summary

Information-Theoretic Inference of Large Transcriptional Regulatory Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meyer Patrick

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The paper presents MRNET, an original method for inferring genetic networks from microarray data. The method is based on maximum relevance/minimum redundancy (MRMR, an effective information-theoretic technique for feature selection in supervised learning. The MRMR principle consists in selecting among the least redundant variables the ones that have the highest mutual information with the target. MRNET extends this feature selection principle to networks in order to infer gene-dependence relationships from microarray data. The paper assesses MRNET by benchmarking it against RELNET, CLR, and ARACNE, three state-of-the-art information-theoretic methods for large (up to several thousands of genes network inference. Experimental results on thirty synthetically generated microarray datasets show that MRNET is competitive with these methods.

Information-Theoretic Inference of Large Transcriptional Regulatory Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrick E. Meyer

2007-06-01

Full Text Available The paper presents MRNET, an original method for inferring genetic networks from microarray data. The method is based on maximum relevance/minimum redundancy (MRMR, an effective information-theoretic technique for feature selection in supervised learning. The MRMR principle consists in selecting among the least redundant variables the ones that have the highest mutual information with the target. MRNET extends this feature selection principle to networks in order to infer gene-dependence relationships from microarray data. The paper assesses MRNET by benchmarking it against RELNET, CLR, and ARACNE, three state-of-the-art information-theoretic methods for large (up to several thousands of genes network inference. Experimental results on thirty synthetically generated microarray datasets show that MRNET is competitive with these methods.

IMAGINE: Interstellar MAGnetic field INference Engine

Science.gov (United States)

Steininger, Theo

2018-03-01

IMAGINE (Interstellar MAGnetic field INference Engine) performs inference on generic parametric models of the Galaxy. The modular open source framework uses highly optimized tools and technology such as the MultiNest sampler (ascl:1109.006) and the information field theory framework NIFTy (ascl:1302.013) to create an instance of the Milky Way based on a set of parameters for physical observables, using Bayesian statistics to judge the mismatch between measured data and model prediction. The flexibility of the IMAGINE framework allows for simple refitting for newly available data sets and makes state-of-the-art Bayesian methods easily accessible particularly for random components of the Galactic magnetic field.

Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiang Wan

Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases.

A Learning Algorithm for Multimodal Grammar Inference.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Ulizia, A; Ferri, F; Grifoni, P

2011-12-01

The high costs of development and maintenance of multimodal grammars in integrating and understanding input in multimodal interfaces lead to the investigation of novel algorithmic solutions in automating grammar generation and in updating processes. Many algorithms for context-free grammar inference have been developed in the natural language processing literature. An extension of these algorithms toward the inference of multimodal grammars is necessary for multimodal input processing. In this paper, we propose a novel grammar inference mechanism that allows us to learn a multimodal grammar from its positive samples of multimodal sentences. The algorithm first generates the multimodal grammar that is able to parse the positive samples of sentences and, afterward, makes use of two learning operators and the minimum description length metrics in improving the grammar description and in avoiding the over-generalization problem. The experimental results highlight the acceptable performances of the algorithm proposed in this paper since it has a very high probability of parsing valid sentences.

Bayesian Inference of High-Dimensional Dynamical Ocean Models

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, J.; Lermusiaux, P. F. J.; Lolla, S. V. T.; Gupta, A.; Haley, P. J., Jr.

2015-12-01

This presentation addresses a holistic set of challenges in high-dimension ocean Bayesian nonlinear estimation: i) predict the probability distribution functions (pdfs) of large nonlinear dynamical systems using stochastic partial differential equations (PDEs); ii) assimilate data using Bayes' law with these pdfs; iii) predict the future data that optimally reduce uncertainties; and (iv) rank the known and learn the new model formulations themselves. Overall, we allow the joint inference of the state, equations, geometry, boundary conditions and initial conditions of dynamical models. Examples are provided for time-dependent fluid and ocean flows, including cavity, double-gyre and Strait flows with jets and eddies. The Bayesian model inference, based on limited observations, is illustrated first by the estimation of obstacle shapes and positions in fluid flows. Next, the Bayesian inference of biogeochemical reaction equations and of their states and parameters is presented, illustrating how PDE-based machine learning can rigorously guide the selection and discovery of complex ecosystem models. Finally, the inference of multiscale bottom gravity current dynamics is illustrated, motivated in part by classic overflows and dense water formation sites and their relevance to climate monitoring and dynamics. This is joint work with our MSEAS group at MIT.

In Situ Observation of Hard Surrounding Rock Displacement at 2400-m-Deep Tunnels

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Xia-Ting; Yao, Zhi-Bin; Li, Shao-Jun; Wu, Shi-Yong; Yang, Cheng-Xiang; Guo, Hao-Sen; Zhong, Shan

2018-03-01

This paper presents the results of in situ investigation of the internal displacement of hard surrounding rock masses within deep tunnels at China's Jinping Underground Laboratory Phase II. The displacement evolution of the surrounding rock during the entire excavation processes was monitored continuously using pre-installed continuous-recording multi-point extensometers. The evolution of excavation-damaged zones and fractures in rock masses were also observed using acoustic velocity testing and digital borehole cameras, respectively. The results show four kinds of displacement behaviours of the hard surrounding rock masses during the excavation process. The displacement in the inner region of the surrounding rock was found to be greater than that of the rock masses near the tunnel's side walls in some excavation stages. This leads to a multi-modal distribution characteristic of internal displacement for hard surrounding rock masses within deep tunnels. A further analysis of the evolution information on the damages and fractures inside the surrounding rock masses reveals the effects of excavation disturbances and local geological conditions. This recognition can be used as the reference for excavation and supporting design and stability evaluations of hard-rock tunnels under high-stress conditions.

The surrounding concrete structure of the containment as a safety component

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alex, H.; Kuntze, W.M.

1978-01-01

This paper will briefly discuss the containments of the various types of reactors in the Federal Republic of Germany and will try to show the importance of the surrounding concrete structures with respect to safety. It will be seen that the surrounding concrete structures serve in any case - as protection against external events - as secondary shielding and must therefore be considered as a passive safety feature. The design requirements for the surrounding concrete structures with respect to protection against external events and to physical protection generally supplement each other. Reference will be made to possible alternatives, which might result from studies of underground siting of nuclear power plants. Whether or not this type of construction can lead to additional safety can only be judged when the results of all these studies - some of which are still under way - are evaluated. The concluding part of this paper will deal with the responsibilities of the civil engineering supervisory authorities and the nuclear licensing authorities with respect to the surrounding concrete structures. (orig.) [de

Hybrid Optical Inference Machines

Science.gov (United States)

1991-09-27

with labels. Now, events. a set of facts cal be generated in the dyadic form "u, R 1,2" Eichmann and Caulfield (19] consider the same type of and can...these enceding-schemes. These architectures are-based pri- 19. G. Eichmann and H. J. Caulfield, "Optical Learning (Inference)marily on optical inner

A Network Inference Workflow Applied to Virulence-Related Processes in Salmonella typhimurium

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Taylor, Ronald C.; Singhal, Mudita; Weller, Jennifer B.; Khoshnevis, Saeed; Shi, Liang; McDermott, Jason E.

2009-04-20

Inference of the structure of mRNA transcriptional regulatory networks, protein regulatory or interaction networks, and protein activation/inactivation-based signal transduction networks are critical tasks in systems biology. In this article we discuss a workflow for the reconstruction of parts of the transcriptional regulatory network of the pathogenic bacterium Salmonella typhimurium based on the information contained in sets of microarray gene expression data now available for that organism, and describe our results obtained by following this workflow. The primary tool is one of the network inference algorithms deployed in the Software Environment for BIological Network Inference (SEBINI). Specifically, we selected the algorithm called Context Likelihood of Relatedness (CLR), which uses the mutual information contained in the gene expression data to infer regulatory connections. The associated analysis pipeline automatically stores the inferred edges from the CLR runs within SEBINI and, upon request, transfers the inferred edges into either Cytoscape or the plug-in Collective Analysis of Biological of Biological Interaction Networks (CABIN) tool for further post-analysis of the inferred regulatory edges. The following article presents the outcome of this workflow, as well as the protocols followed for microarray data collection, data cleansing, and network inference. Our analysis revealed several interesting interactions, functional groups, metabolic pathways, and regulons in S. typhimurium.

Training Inference Making Skills Using a Situation Model Approach Improves Reading Comprehension

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lisanne eBos

2016-02-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to enhance third and fourth graders’ text comprehension at the situation model level. Therefore, we tested a reading strategy training developed to target inference making skills, which are widely considered to be pivotal to situation model construction. The training was grounded in contemporary literature on situation model-based inference making and addressed the source (text-based versus knowledge-based, type (necessary versus unnecessary for (re-establishing coherence, and depth of an inference (making single lexical inferences versus combining multiple lexical inferences, as well as the type of searching strategy (forward versus backward. Results indicated that, compared to a control group (n = 51, children who followed the experimental training (n = 67 improved their inference making skills supportive to situation model construction. Importantly, our training also resulted in increased levels of general reading comprehension and motivation. In sum, this study showed that a ‘level of text representation’-approach can provide a useful framework to teach inference making skills to third and fourth graders.

Robust Demographic Inference from Genomic and SNP Data

Science.gov (United States)

Excoffier, Laurent; Dupanloup, Isabelle; Huerta-Sánchez, Emilia; Sousa, Vitor C.; Foll, Matthieu

2013-01-01

We introduce a flexible and robust simulation-based framework to infer demographic parameters from the site frequency spectrum (SFS) computed on large genomic datasets. We show that our composite-likelihood approach allows one to study evolutionary models of arbitrary complexity, which cannot be tackled by other current likelihood-based methods. For simple scenarios, our approach compares favorably in terms of accuracy and speed with , the current reference in the field, while showing better convergence properties for complex models. We first apply our methodology to non-coding genomic SNP data from four human populations. To infer their demographic history, we compare neutral evolutionary models of increasing complexity, including unsampled populations. We further show the versatility of our framework by extending it to the inference of demographic parameters from SNP chips with known ascertainment, such as that recently released by Affymetrix to study human origins. Whereas previous ways of handling ascertained SNPs were either restricted to a single population or only allowed the inference of divergence time between a pair of populations, our framework can correctly infer parameters of more complex models including the divergence of several populations, bottlenecks and migration. We apply this approach to the reconstruction of African demography using two distinct ascertained human SNP panels studied under two evolutionary models. The two SNP panels lead to globally very similar estimates and confidence intervals, and suggest an ancient divergence (>110 Ky) between Yoruba and San populations. Our methodology appears well suited to the study of complex scenarios from large genomic data sets. PMID:24204310

Universal Darwinism as a process of Bayesian inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John Oberon Campbell

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes’ Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians. As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an ‘experiment’ in the external world environment, and the results of that 'experiment' or the 'surprise' entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the ‘experiment’. Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of 'surprise' experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature.

Behavior Intention Derivation of Android Malware Using Ontology Inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian Jiao

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Previous researches on Android malware mainly focus on malware detection, and malware’s evolution makes the process face certain hysteresis. The information presented by these detected results (malice judgment, family classification, and behavior characterization is limited for analysts. Therefore, a method is needed to restore the intention of malware, which reflects the relation between multiple behaviors of complex malware and its ultimate purpose. This paper proposes a novel description and derivation model of Android malware intention based on the theory of intention and malware reverse engineering. This approach creates ontology for malware intention to model the semantic relation between behaviors and its objects and automates the process of intention derivation by using SWRL rules transformed from intention model and Jess inference engine. Experiments on 75 typical samples show that the inference system can perform derivation of malware intention effectively, and 89.3% of the inference results are consistent with artificial analysis, which proves the feasibility and effectiveness of our theory and inference system.

Genealogical and evolutionary inference with the human Y chromosome.

Science.gov (United States)

Stumpf, M P; Goldstein, D B

2001-03-02

Population genetics has emerged as a powerful tool for unraveling human history. In addition to the study of mitochondrial and autosomal DNA, attention has recently focused on Y-chromosome variation. Ambiguities and inaccuracies in data analysis, however, pose an important obstacle to further development of the field. Here we review the methods available for genealogical inference using Y-chromosome data. Approaches can be divided into those that do and those that do not use an explicit population model in genealogical inference. We describe the strengths and weaknesses of these model-based and model-free approaches, as well as difficulties associated with the mutation process that affect both methods. In the case of genealogical inference using microsatellite loci, we use coalescent simulations to show that relatively simple generalizations of the mutation process can greatly increase the accuracy of genealogical inference. Because model-free and model-based approaches have different biases and limitations, we conclude that there is considerable benefit in the continued use of both types of approaches.

SDG multiple fault diagnosis by real-time inverse inference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Zhaoqian; Wu Chongguang; Zhang Beike; Xia Tao; Li Anfeng

2005-01-01

In the past 20 years, one of the qualitative simulation technologies, signed directed graph (SDG) has been widely applied in the field of chemical fault diagnosis. However, the assumption of single fault origin was usually used by many former researchers. As a result, this will lead to the problem of combinatorial explosion and has limited SDG to the realistic application on the real process. This is mainly because that most of the former researchers used forward inference engine in the commercial expert system software to carry out the inverse diagnosis inference on the SDG model which violates the internal principle of diagnosis mechanism. In this paper, we present a new SDG multiple faults diagnosis method by real-time inverse inference. This is a method of multiple faults diagnosis from the genuine significance and the inference engine use inverse mechanism. At last, we give an example of 65t/h furnace diagnosis system to demonstrate its applicability and efficiency

SDG multiple fault diagnosis by real-time inverse inference

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang Zhaoqian; Wu Chongguang; Zhang Beike; Xia Tao; Li Anfeng

2005-02-01

In the past 20 years, one of the qualitative simulation technologies, signed directed graph (SDG) has been widely applied in the field of chemical fault diagnosis. However, the assumption of single fault origin was usually used by many former researchers. As a result, this will lead to the problem of combinatorial explosion and has limited SDG to the realistic application on the real process. This is mainly because that most of the former researchers used forward inference engine in the commercial expert system software to carry out the inverse diagnosis inference on the SDG model which violates the internal principle of diagnosis mechanism. In this paper, we present a new SDG multiple faults diagnosis method by real-time inverse inference. This is a method of multiple faults diagnosis from the genuine significance and the inference engine use inverse mechanism. At last, we give an example of 65t/h furnace diagnosis system to demonstrate its applicability and efficiency.

Consistent and robust determination of border ownership based on asymmetric surrounding contrast.

Science.gov (United States)

Sakai, Ko; Nishimura, Haruka; Shimizu, Ryohei; Kondo, Keiichi

2012-09-01

Determination of the figure region in an image is a fundamental step toward surface construction, shape coding, and object representation. Localized, asymmetric surround modulation, reported neurophysiologically in early-to-intermediate-level visual areas, has been proposed as a mechanism for figure-ground segregation. We investigated, computationally, whether such surround modulation is capable of yielding consistent and robust determination of figure side for various stimuli. Our surround modulation model showed a surprisingly high consistency among pseudorandom block stimuli, with greater consistency for stimuli that yielded higher accuracy of, and shorter reaction times in, human perception. Our analyses revealed that the localized, asymmetric organization of surrounds is crucial in the detection of the contrast imbalance that leads to the determination of the direction of figure with respect to the border. The model also exhibited robustness for gray-scaled natural images, with a mean correct rate of 67%, which was similar to that of figure-side determination in human perception through a small window and of machine-vision algorithms based on local processing. These results suggest a crucial role of surround modulation in the local processing of figure-ground segregation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Functional networks inference from rule-based machine learning models.

Science.gov (United States)

Lazzarini, Nicola; Widera, Paweł; Williamson, Stuart; Heer, Rakesh; Krasnogor, Natalio; Bacardit, Jaume

2016-01-01

Functional networks play an important role in the analysis of biological processes and systems. The inference of these networks from high-throughput (-omics) data is an area of intense research. So far, the similarity-based inference paradigm (e.g. gene co-expression) has been the most popular approach. It assumes a functional relationship between genes which are expressed at similar levels across different samples. An alternative to this paradigm is the inference of relationships from the structure of machine learning models. These models are able to capture complex relationships between variables, that often are different/complementary to the similarity-based methods. We propose a protocol to infer functional networks from machine learning models, called FuNeL. It assumes, that genes used together within a rule-based machine learning model to classify the samples, might also be functionally related at a biological level. The protocol is first tested on synthetic datasets and then evaluated on a test suite of 8 real-world datasets related to human cancer. The networks inferred from the real-world data are compared against gene co-expression networks of equal size, generated with 3 different methods. The comparison is performed from two different points of view. We analyse the enriched biological terms in the set of network nodes and the relationships between known disease-associated genes in a context of the network topology. The comparison confirms both the biological relevance and the complementary character of the knowledge captured by the FuNeL networks in relation to similarity-based methods and demonstrates its potential to identify known disease associations as core elements of the network. Finally, using a prostate cancer dataset as a case study, we confirm that the biological knowledge captured by our method is relevant to the disease and consistent with the specialised literature and with an independent dataset not used in the inference process. The

Enhanced sources of acoustic power surrounding AR 11429

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Donea, Alina; Hanson, Christopher

2013-01-01

Multi-frequency power maps of the local acoustic oscillations show acoustic enhancements (''acoustic-power halos'') at high frequencies surrounding large active region. Computational seismic holography reveals a high-frequency ''acoustic-emission halo'', or ''seismic glory'' surrounding large active regions. In this study, we have applied computational seismic holography to map the seismic seismic source density surrounding AR 11429. Studies of HMI/SDO Doppler data, shows that the ''acoustic halos'' and the ''seismic glories'' are prominent at high frequencies 5–8 mHz. We investigate morphological properties of acoustic-power and acoustic emission halos around an active region to see if they are spatially correlated. Details about the local magnetic field from vectormagnetograms of AR 11429 are included. We identify a 15'' region of seismic deficit power (dark moat) shielding the white-light boundary of the active region. The size of the seismic moat is related to region of intermediate magnetic field strength. The acoustic moat is circled by the halo of enhanced seismic amplitude as well as enhanced seismic emission. Overall, the results suggest that features are related. However, if we narrow the frequency band to 5.5 – 6.5 mHz, we find that the seismic source density dominates over the local acoustic power, suggesting the existence of sources that emit more energy downward into the solar interior than upward toward the solar surface.

Three regimes of extrasolar planet radius inferred from host star metallicities.

Science.gov (United States)

Buchhave, Lars A; Bizzarro, Martin; Latham, David W; Sasselov, Dimitar; Cochran, William D; Endl, Michael; Isaacson, Howard; Juncher, Diana; Marcy, Geoffrey W

2014-05-29

Approximately half of the extrasolar planets (exoplanets) with radii less than four Earth radii are in orbits with short periods. Despite their sheer abundance, the compositions of such planets are largely unknown. The available evidence suggests that they range in composition from small, high-density rocky planets to low-density planets consisting of rocky cores surrounded by thick hydrogen and helium gas envelopes. Here we report the metallicities (that is, the abundances of elements heavier than hydrogen and helium) of more than 400 stars hosting 600 exoplanet candidates, and find that the exoplanets can be categorized into three populations defined by statistically distinct (∼4.5σ) metallicity regions. We interpret these regions as reflecting the formation regimes of terrestrial-like planets (radii less than 1.7 Earth radii), gas dwarf planets with rocky cores and hydrogen-helium envelopes (radii between 1.7 and 3.9 Earth radii) and ice or gas giant planets (radii greater than 3.9 Earth radii). These transitions correspond well with those inferred from dynamical mass estimates, implying that host star metallicity, which is a proxy for the initial solids inventory of the protoplanetary disk, is a key ingredient regulating the structure of planetary systems.

Causal inference based on counterfactuals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Höfler M

2005-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The counterfactual or potential outcome model has become increasingly standard for causal inference in epidemiological and medical studies. Discussion This paper provides an overview on the counterfactual and related approaches. A variety of conceptual as well as practical issues when estimating causal effects are reviewed. These include causal interactions, imperfect experiments, adjustment for confounding, time-varying exposures, competing risks and the probability of causation. It is argued that the counterfactual model of causal effects captures the main aspects of causality in health sciences and relates to many statistical procedures. Summary Counterfactuals are the basis of causal inference in medicine and epidemiology. Nevertheless, the estimation of counterfactual differences pose several difficulties, primarily in observational studies. These problems, however, reflect fundamental barriers only when learning from observations, and this does not invalidate the counterfactual concept.

Implementing and analyzing the multi-threaded LP-inference

Science.gov (United States)

Bolotova, S. Yu; Trofimenko, E. V.; Leschinskaya, M. V.

2018-03-01

The logical production equations provide new possibilities for the backward inference optimization in intelligent production-type systems. The strategy of a relevant backward inference is aimed at minimization of a number of queries to external information source (either to a database or an interactive user). The idea of the method is based on the computing of initial preimages set and searching for the true preimage. The execution of each stage can be organized independently and in parallel and the actual work at a given stage can also be distributed between parallel computers. This paper is devoted to the parallel algorithms of the relevant inference based on the advanced scheme of the parallel computations “pipeline” which allows to increase the degree of parallelism. The author also provides some details of the LP-structures implementation.

International Conference on Trends and Perspectives in Linear Statistical Inference

CERN Document Server

Rosen, Dietrich

2018-01-01

This volume features selected contributions on a variety of topics related to linear statistical inference. The peer-reviewed papers from the International Conference on Trends and Perspectives in Linear Statistical Inference (LinStat 2016) held in Istanbul, Turkey, 22-25 August 2016, cover topics in both theoretical and applied statistics, such as linear models, high-dimensional statistics, computational statistics, the design of experiments, and multivariate analysis. The book is intended for statisticians, Ph.D. students, and professionals who are interested in statistical inference. .

Packaging design as communicator of product attributes: Effects on consumers’ attribute inferences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Ooijen, I.

2016-01-01

This dissertation will focus on two types of attribute inferences that result from packaging design cues. First, the effects of product packaging design on quality related inferences are investigated. Second, the effects of product packaging design on healthiness related inferences are examined (See

Surrogate based approaches to parameter inference in ocean models

KAUST Repository

Knio, Omar

2016-01-06

This talk discusses the inference of physical parameters using model surrogates. Attention is focused on the use of sampling schemes to build suitable representations of the dependence of the model response on uncertain input data. Non-intrusive spectral projections and regularized regressions are used for this purpose. A Bayesian inference formalism is then applied to update the uncertain inputs based on available measurements or observations. To perform the update, we consider two alternative approaches, based on the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods or of adjoint-based optimization techniques. We outline the implementation of these techniques to infer dependence of wind drag, bottom drag, and internal mixing coefficients.

Fast and scalable inference of multi-sample cancer lineages.

KAUST Repository

Popic, Victoria; Salari, Raheleh; Hajirasouliha, Iman; Kashef-Haghighi, Dorna; West, Robert B; Batzoglou, Serafim

2015-01-01

Somatic variants can be used as lineage markers for the phylogenetic reconstruction of cancer evolution. Since somatic phylogenetics is complicated by sample heterogeneity, novel specialized tree-building methods are required for cancer phylogeny reconstruction. We present LICHeE (Lineage Inference for Cancer Heterogeneity and Evolution), a novel method that automates the phylogenetic inference of cancer progression from multiple somatic samples. LICHeE uses variant allele frequencies of somatic single nucleotide variants obtained by deep sequencing to reconstruct multi-sample cell lineage trees and infer the subclonal composition of the samples. LICHeE is open source and available at http://viq854.github.io/lichee .

Fast and scalable inference of multi-sample cancer lineages.

KAUST Repository

Popic, Victoria

2015-05-06

Somatic variants can be used as lineage markers for the phylogenetic reconstruction of cancer evolution. Since somatic phylogenetics is complicated by sample heterogeneity, novel specialized tree-building methods are required for cancer phylogeny reconstruction. We present LICHeE (Lineage Inference for Cancer Heterogeneity and Evolution), a novel method that automates the phylogenetic inference of cancer progression from multiple somatic samples. LICHeE uses variant allele frequencies of somatic single nucleotide variants obtained by deep sequencing to reconstruct multi-sample cell lineage trees and infer the subclonal composition of the samples. LICHeE is open source and available at http://viq854.github.io/lichee .

Surrogate based approaches to parameter inference in ocean models

KAUST Repository

Knio, Omar

2016-01-01

This talk discusses the inference of physical parameters using model surrogates. Attention is focused on the use of sampling schemes to build suitable representations of the dependence of the model response on uncertain input data. Non-intrusive spectral projections and regularized regressions are used for this purpose. A Bayesian inference formalism is then applied to update the uncertain inputs based on available measurements or observations. To perform the update, we consider two alternative approaches, based on the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods or of adjoint-based optimization techniques. We outline the implementation of these techniques to infer dependence of wind drag, bottom drag, and internal mixing coefficients.

Inferring causality from noisy time series data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mønster, Dan; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian

2016-01-01

Convergent Cross-Mapping (CCM) has shown high potential to perform causal inference in the absence of models. We assess the strengths and weaknesses of the method by varying coupling strength and noise levels in coupled logistic maps. We find that CCM fails to infer accurate coupling strength...... and even causality direction in synchronized time-series and in the presence of intermediate coupling. We find that the presence of noise deterministically reduces the level of cross-mapping fidelity, while the convergence rate exhibits higher levels of robustness. Finally, we propose that controlled noise...

Inferring the colonization of a mountain range--refugia vs. nunatak survival in high alpine ground beetles.

Science.gov (United States)

Lohse, Konrad; Nicholls, James A; Stone, Graham N

2011-01-01

It has long been debated whether high alpine specialists survived ice ages in situ on small ice-free islands of habitat, so-called nunataks, or whether glacial survival was restricted to larger massifs de refuge at the periphery. We evaluate these alternative hypotheses in a local radiation of high alpine carabid beetles (genus Trechus) in the Orobian Alps, Northern Italy. While summits along the northern ridge of this mountain range were surrounded by the icesheet as nunataks during the last glacial maximum, southern areas remained unglaciated. We analyse a total of 1366 bp of mitochondrial (Cox1 and Cox2) data sampled from 150 individuals from twelve populations and 530 bp of nuclear (PEPCK) sequence sampled for a subset of 30 individuals. Using Bayesian inference, we estimate ancestral location states in the gene trees, which in turn are used to infer the most likely order of recolonization under a model of sequential founder events from a massif de refuge from the mitochondrial data. We test for the paraphyly expected under this model and for reciprocal monophyly predicted by a contrasting model of prolonged persistence of nunatak populations. We find that (i) only three populations are incompatible with the paraphyly of the massif de refuge model, (ii) both mitochondrial and nuclear data support separate refugial origins for populations on the western and eastern ends of the northern ridge, and (iii) mitochondrial node ages suggest persistence on the northern ridge for part of the last ice age. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Making Inferences in Adulthood: Falling Leaves Mean It's Fall.

Science.gov (United States)

Zandi, Taher; Gregory, Monica E.

1988-01-01

Assessed age differences in making inferences from prose. Older adults correctly answered mean of 10 questions related to implicit information and 8 related to explicit information. Young adults answered mean of 7 implicit and 12 explicit information questions. In spite of poorer recall of factual details, older subjects made inferences to greater…

Opportunity's Surroundings on Sol 1818

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity used its navigation camera to take the images combined into this full-circle view of the rover's surroundings during the 1,818th Martian day, or sol, of Opportunity's surface mission (March 5, 2009). South is at the center; north at both ends. The rover had driven 80.3 meters (263 feet) southward earlier on that sol. Tracks from the drive recede northward in this view. The terrain in this portion of Mars' Meridiani Planum region includes dark-toned sand ripples and lighter-toned bedrock. This view is presented as a cylindrical projection with geometric seam correction.

Mixed normal inference on multicointegration

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boswijk, H.P.

2009-01-01

Asymptotic likelihood analysis of cointegration in I(2) models, see Johansen (1997, 2006), Boswijk (2000) and Paruolo (2000), has shown that inference on most parameters is mixed normal, implying hypothesis test statistics with an asymptotic 2 null distribution. The asymptotic distribution of the

Baselines and test data for cross-lingual inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Agic, Zeljko; Schluter, Natalie

2018-01-01

The recent years have seen a revival of interest in textual entailment, sparked by i) the emergence of powerful deep neural network learners for natural language processing and ii) the timely development of large-scale evaluation datasets such as SNLI. Recast as natural language inference......, the problem now amounts to detecting the relation between pairs of statements: they either contradict or entail one another, or they are mutually neutral. Current research in natural language inference is effectively exclusive to English. In this paper, we propose to advance the research in SNLI-style natural...... language inference toward multilingual evaluation. To that end, we provide test data for four major languages: Arabic, French, Spanish, and Russian. We experiment with a set of baselines. Our systems are based on cross-lingual word embeddings and machine translation. While our best system scores an average...

Bayesian inference with ecological applications

CERN Document Server

Link, William A

2009-01-01

This text is written to provide a mathematically sound but accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference specifically for environmental scientists, ecologists and wildlife biologists. It emphasizes the power and usefulness of Bayesian methods in an ecological context. The advent of fast personal computers and easily available software has simplified the use of Bayesian and hierarchical models . One obstacle remains for ecologists and wildlife biologists, namely the near absence of Bayesian texts written specifically for them. The book includes many relevant examples, is supported by software and examples on a companion website and will become an essential grounding in this approach for students and research ecologists. Engagingly written text specifically designed to demystify a complex subject Examples drawn from ecology and wildlife research An essential grounding for graduate and research ecologists in the increasingly prevalent Bayesian approach to inference Companion website with analyt...

Nonparametric Bayesian inference in biostatistics

CERN Document Server

Müller, Peter

2015-01-01

As chapters in this book demonstrate, BNP has important uses in clinical sciences and inference for issues like unknown partitions in genomics. Nonparametric Bayesian approaches (BNP) play an ever expanding role in biostatistical inference from use in proteomics to clinical trials. Many research problems involve an abundance of data and require flexible and complex probability models beyond the traditional parametric approaches. As this book's expert contributors show, BNP approaches can be the answer. Survival Analysis, in particular survival regression, has traditionally used BNP, but BNP's potential is now very broad. This applies to important tasks like arrangement of patients into clinically meaningful subpopulations and segmenting the genome into functionally distinct regions. This book is designed to both review and introduce application areas for BNP. While existing books provide theoretical foundations, this book connects theory to practice through engaging examples and research questions. Chapters c...

Intracranial EEG correlates of implicit relational inference within the hippocampus.

Science.gov (United States)

Reber, T P; Do Lam, A T A; Axmacher, N; Elger, C E; Helmstaedter, C; Henke, K; Fell, J

2016-01-01

Drawing inferences from past experiences enables adaptive behavior in future situations. Inference has been shown to depend on hippocampal processes. Usually, inference is considered a deliberate and effortful mental act which happens during retrieval, and requires the focus of our awareness. Recent fMRI studies hint at the possibility that some forms of hippocampus-dependent inference can also occur during encoding and possibly also outside of awareness. Here, we sought to further explore the feasibility of hippocampal implicit inference, and specifically address the temporal evolution of implicit inference using intracranial EEG. Presurgical epilepsy patients with hippocampal depth electrodes viewed a sequence of word pairs, and judged the semantic fit between two words in each pair. Some of the word pairs entailed a common word (e.g., "winter-red," "red-cat") such that an indirect relation was established in following word pairs (e.g., "winter-cat"). The behavioral results suggested that drawing inference implicitly from past experience is feasible because indirect relations seemed to foster "fit" judgments while the absence of indirect relations fostered "do not fit" judgments, even though the participants were unaware of the indirect relations. A event-related potential (ERP) difference emerging 400 ms post-stimulus was evident in the hippocampus during encoding, suggesting that indirect relations were already established automatically during encoding of the overlapping word pairs. Further ERP differences emerged later post-stimulus (1,500 ms), were modulated by the participants' responses and were evident during encoding and test. Furthermore, response-locked ERP effects were evident at test. These ERP effects could hence be a correlate of the interaction of implicit memory with decision-making. Together, the data map out a time-course in which the hippocampus automatically integrates memories from discrete but related episodes to implicitly influence future

Estimating mountain basin-mean precipitation from streamflow using Bayesian inference

Science.gov (United States)

Henn, Brian; Clark, Martyn P.; Kavetski, Dmitri; Lundquist, Jessica D.

2015-10-01

Estimating basin-mean precipitation in complex terrain is difficult due to uncertainty in the topographical representativeness of precipitation gauges relative to the basin. To address this issue, we use Bayesian methodology coupled with a multimodel framework to infer basin-mean precipitation from streamflow observations, and we apply this approach to snow-dominated basins in the Sierra Nevada of California. Using streamflow observations, forcing data from lower-elevation stations, the Bayesian Total Error Analysis (BATEA) methodology and the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE), we infer basin-mean precipitation, and compare it to basin-mean precipitation estimated using topographically informed interpolation from gauges (PRISM, the Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model). The BATEA-inferred spatial patterns of precipitation show agreement with PRISM in terms of the rank of basins from wet to dry but differ in absolute values. In some of the basins, these differences may reflect biases in PRISM, because some implied PRISM runoff ratios may be inconsistent with the regional climate. We also infer annual time series of basin precipitation using a two-step calibration approach. Assessment of the precision and robustness of the BATEA approach suggests that uncertainty in the BATEA-inferred precipitation is primarily related to uncertainties in hydrologic model structure. Despite these limitations, time series of inferred annual precipitation under different model and parameter assumptions are strongly correlated with one another, suggesting that this approach is capable of resolving year-to-year variability in basin-mean precipitation.

Feature inference with uncertain categorization: Re-assessing Anderson's rational model.

Science.gov (United States)

Konovalova, Elizaveta; Le Mens, Gaël

2017-09-18

A key function of categories is to help predictions about unobserved features of objects. At the same time, humans are often in situations where the categories of the objects they perceive are uncertain. In an influential paper, Anderson (Psychological Review, 98(3), 409-429, 1991) proposed a rational model for feature inferences with uncertain categorization. A crucial feature of this model is the conditional independence assumption-it assumes that the within category feature correlation is zero. In prior research, this model has been found to provide a poor fit to participants' inferences. This evidence is restricted to task environments inconsistent with the conditional independence assumption. Currently available evidence thus provides little information about how this model would fit participants' inferences in a setting with conditional independence. In four experiments based on a novel paradigm and one experiment based on an existing paradigm, we assess the performance of Anderson's model under conditional independence. We find that this model predicts participants' inferences better than competing models. One model assumes that inferences are based on just the most likely category. The second model is insensitive to categories but sensitive to overall feature correlation. The performance of Anderson's model is evidence that inferences were influenced not only by the more likely category but also by the other candidate category. Our findings suggest that a version of Anderson's model which relaxes the conditional independence assumption will likely perform well in environments characterized by within-category feature correlation.

Integrating distributed Bayesian inference and reinforcement learning for sensor management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grappiolo, C.; Whiteson, S.; Pavlin, G.; Bakker, B.

2009-01-01

This paper introduces a sensor management approach that integrates distributed Bayesian inference (DBI) and reinforcement learning (RL). DBI is implemented using distributed perception networks (DPNs), a multiagent approach to performing efficient inference, while RL is used to automatically

Reliability of dose volume constraint inference from clinical data

Science.gov (United States)

Lutz, C. M.; Møller, D. S.; Hoffmann, L.; Knap, M. M.; Alber, M.

2017-04-01

Dose volume histogram points (DVHPs) frequently serve as dose constraints in radiotherapy treatment planning. An experiment was designed to investigate the reliability of DVHP inference from clinical data for multiple cohort sizes and complication incidence rates. The experimental background was radiation pneumonitis in non-small cell lung cancer and the DVHP inference method was based on logistic regression. From 102 NSCLC real-life dose distributions and a postulated DVHP model, an ‘ideal’ cohort was generated where the most predictive model was equal to the postulated model. A bootstrap and a Cohort Replication Monte Carlo (CoRepMC) approach were applied to create 1000 equally sized populations each. The cohorts were then analyzed to establish inference frequency distributions. This was applied to nine scenarios for cohort sizes of 102 (1), 500 (2) to 2000 (3) patients (by sampling with replacement) and three postulated DVHP models. The Bootstrap was repeated for a ‘non-ideal’ cohort, where the most predictive model did not coincide with the postulated model. The Bootstrap produced chaotic results for all models of cohort size 1 for both the ideal and non-ideal cohorts. For cohort size 2 and 3, the distributions for all populations were more concentrated around the postulated DVHP. For the CoRepMC, the inference frequency increased with cohort size and incidence rate. Correct inference rates  >85 % were only achieved by cohorts with more than 500 patients. Both Bootstrap and CoRepMC indicate that inference of the correct or approximate DVHP for typical cohort sizes is highly uncertain. CoRepMC results were less spurious than Bootstrap results, demonstrating the large influence that randomness in dose-response has on the statistical analysis.

Inference in {open_quotes}poor{close_quotes} languages

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Petrov, S. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

1996-12-31

Languages with a solvable implication problem but without complete and consistent systems of inference rules ({open_quote}poor{close_quote} languages) are considered. The problem of existence of a finite, complete, and consistent inference rule system for a {open_quotes}poor{close_quotes} language is stated independently of the language or the rule syntax. Several properties of the problem are proved. An application of the results to the language of join dependencies is given.

Inference of beliefs and emotions in patients with Alzheimer's disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaitchik, Deborah; Koff, Elissa; Brownell, Hiram; Winner, Ellen; Albert, Marilyn

2006-01-01

The present study compared 20 patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease with 20 older controls (ages 69-94 years) on their ability to make inferences about emotions and beliefs in others. Six tasks tested their ability to make 1st-order and 2nd-order inferences as well as to offer explanations and moral evaluations of human action by appeal to emotions and beliefs. Results showed that the ability to infer emotions and beliefs in 1st-order tasks remains largely intact in patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's. Patients were able to use mental states in the prediction, explanation, and moral evaluation of behavior. Impairment on 2nd-order tasks involving inference of mental states was equivalent to impairment on control tasks, suggesting that patients' difficulty is secondary to their cognitive impairments. ((c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).

Inference method using bayesian network for diagnosis of pulmonary nodules

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kawagishi, Masami; Iizuka, Yoshio; Yamamoto, Hiroyuki; Yakami, Masahiro; Kubo, Takeshi; Fujimoto, Koji; Togashi, Kaori

2010-01-01

This report describes the improvements of a naive Bayes model that infers the diagnosis of pulmonary nodules in chest CT images based on the findings obtained when a radiologist interprets the CT images. We have previously introduced an inference model using a naive Bayes classifier and have reported its clinical value based on evaluation using clinical data. In the present report, we introduce the following improvements to the original inference model: the selection of findings based on correlations and the generation of a model using only these findings, and the introduction of classifiers that integrate several simple classifiers each of which is specialized for specific diagnosis. These improvements were found to increase the inference accuracy by 10.4% (p<.01) as compared to the original model in 100 cases (222 nodules) based on leave-one-out evaluation. (author)

Generative inference for cultural evolution.

Science.gov (United States)

Kandler, Anne; Powell, Adam

2018-04-05

One of the major challenges in cultural evolution is to understand why and how various forms of social learning are used in human populations, both now and in the past. To date, much of the theoretical work on social learning has been done in isolation of data, and consequently many insights focus on revealing the learning processes or the distributions of cultural variants that are expected to have evolved in human populations. In population genetics, recent methodological advances have allowed a greater understanding of the explicit demographic and/or selection mechanisms that underlie observed allele frequency distributions across the globe, and their change through time. In particular, generative frameworks-often using coalescent-based simulation coupled with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)-have provided robust inferences on the human past, with no reliance on a priori assumptions of equilibrium. Here, we demonstrate the applicability and utility of generative inference approaches to the field of cultural evolution. The framework advocated here uses observed population-level frequency data directly to establish the likely presence or absence of particular hypothesized learning strategies. In this context, we discuss the problem of equifinality and argue that, in the light of sparse cultural data and the multiplicity of possible social learning processes, the exclusion of those processes inconsistent with the observed data might be the most instructive outcome. Finally, we summarize the findings of generative inference approaches applied to a number of case studies.This article is part of the theme issue 'Bridging cultural gaps: interdisciplinary studies in human cultural evolution'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Inferring Domain Plans in Question-Answering

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Pollack, Martha E

1986-01-01

The importance of plan inference in models of conversation has been widely noted in the computational-linguistics literature, and its incorporation in question-answering systems has enabled a range...

Bayesian inference for hybrid discrete-continuous stochastic kinetic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sherlock, Chris; Golightly, Andrew; Gillespie, Colin S

2014-01-01

We consider the problem of efficiently performing simulation and inference for stochastic kinetic models. Whilst it is possible to work directly with the resulting Markov jump process (MJP), computational cost can be prohibitive for networks of realistic size and complexity. In this paper, we consider an inference scheme based on a novel hybrid simulator that classifies reactions as either ‘fast’ or ‘slow’ with fast reactions evolving as a continuous Markov process whilst the remaining slow reaction occurrences are modelled through a MJP with time-dependent hazards. A linear noise approximation (LNA) of fast reaction dynamics is employed and slow reaction events are captured by exploiting the ability to solve the stochastic differential equation driving the LNA. This simulation procedure is used as a proposal mechanism inside a particle MCMC scheme, thus allowing Bayesian inference for the model parameters. We apply the scheme to a simple application and compare the output with an existing hybrid approach and also a scheme for performing inference for the underlying discrete stochastic model. (paper)

Comparative Study of Inference Methods for Bayesian Nonnegative Matrix Factorisation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brouwer, Thomas; Frellsen, Jes; Liò, Pietro

2017-01-01

In this paper, we study the trade-offs of different inference approaches for Bayesian matrix factorisation methods, which are commonly used for predicting missing values, and for finding patterns in the data. In particular, we consider Bayesian nonnegative variants of matrix factorisation and tri......-factorisation, and compare non-probabilistic inference, Gibbs sampling, variational Bayesian inference, and a maximum-a-posteriori approach. The variational approach is new for the Bayesian nonnegative models. We compare their convergence, and robustness to noise and sparsity of the data, on both synthetic and real...

Multi-Agent Inference in Social Networks: A Finite Population Learning Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Jianqing; Tong, Xin; Zeng, Yao

When people in a society want to make inference about some parameter, each person may want to use data collected by other people. Information (data) exchange in social networks is usually costly, so to make reliable statistical decisions, people need to trade off the benefits and costs of information acquisition. Conflicts of interests and coordination problems will arise in the process. Classical statistics does not consider people's incentives and interactions in the data collection process. To address this imperfection, this work explores multi-agent Bayesian inference problems with a game theoretic social network model. Motivated by our interest in aggregate inference at the societal level, we propose a new concept, finite population learning , to address whether with high probability, a large fraction of people in a given finite population network can make "good" inference. Serving as a foundation, this concept enables us to study the long run trend of aggregate inference quality as population grows.

Role of Utility and Inference in the Evolution of Functional Information

Science.gov (United States)

Sharov, Alexei A.

2009-01-01

Functional information means an encoded network of functions in living organisms from molecular signaling pathways to an organism’s behavior. It is represented by two components: code and an interpretation system, which together form a self-sustaining semantic closure. Semantic closure allows some freedom between components because small variations of the code are still interpretable. The interpretation system consists of inference rules that control the correspondence between the code and the function (phenotype) and determines the shape of the fitness landscape. The utility factor operates at multiple time scales: short-term selection drives evolution towards higher survival and reproduction rate within a given fitness landscape, and long-term selection favors those fitness landscapes that support adaptability and lead to evolutionary expansion of certain lineages. Inference rules make short-term selection possible by shaping the fitness landscape and defining possible directions of evolution, but they are under control of the long-term selection of lineages. Communication normally occurs within a set of agents with compatible interpretation systems, which I call communication system. Functional information cannot be directly transferred between communication systems with incompatible inference rules. Each biological species is a genetic communication system that carries unique functional information together with inference rules that determine evolutionary directions and constraints. This view of the relation between utility and inference can resolve the conflict between realism/positivism and pragmatism. Realism overemphasizes the role of inference in evolution of human knowledge because it assumes that logic is embedded in reality. Pragmatism substitutes usefulness for truth and therefore ignores the advantage of inference. The proposed concept of evolutionary pragmatism rejects the idea that logic is embedded in reality; instead, inference rules are

Inference for shared-frailty survival models with left-truncated data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Berg, G.J.; Drepper, B.

2016-01-01

Shared-frailty survival models specify that systematic unobserved determinants of duration outcomes are identical within groups of individuals. We consider random-effects likelihood-based statistical inference if the duration data are subject to left-truncation. Such inference with left-truncated

Parametric inference for biological sequence analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Pachter, Lior; Sturmfels, Bernd

2004-11-16

One of the major successes in computational biology has been the unification, by using the graphical model formalism, of a multitude of algorithms for annotating and comparing biological sequences. Graphical models that have been applied to these problems include hidden Markov models for annotation, tree models for phylogenetics, and pair hidden Markov models for alignment. A single algorithm, the sum-product algorithm, solves many of the inference problems that are associated with different statistical models. This article introduces the polytope propagation algorithm for computing the Newton polytope of an observation from a graphical model. This algorithm is a geometric version of the sum-product algorithm and is used to analyze the parametric behavior of maximum a posteriori inference calculations for graphical models.

Improved Inference of Heteroscedastic Fixed Effects Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Afshan Saeed

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Heteroscedasticity is a stern problem that distorts estimation and testing of panel data model (PDM. Arellano (1987 proposed the White (1980 estimator for PDM with heteroscedastic errors but it provides erroneous inference for the data sets including high leverage points. In this paper, our attempt is to improve heteroscedastic consistent covariance matrix estimator (HCCME for panel dataset with high leverage points. To draw robust inference for the PDM, our focus is to improve kernel bootstrap estimators, proposed by Racine and MacKinnon (2007. The Monte Carlo scheme is used for assertion of the results.

A Bayesian Framework That Integrates Heterogeneous Data for Inferring Gene Regulatory Networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Santra, Tapesh, E-mail: tapesh.santra@ucd.ie [Systems Biology Ireland, University College Dublin, Dublin (Ireland)

2014-05-20

Reconstruction of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from experimental data is a fundamental challenge in systems biology. A number of computational approaches have been developed to infer GRNs from mRNA expression profiles. However, expression profiles alone are proving to be insufficient for inferring GRN topologies with reasonable accuracy. Recently, it has been shown that integration of external data sources (such as gene and protein sequence information, gene ontology data, protein–protein interactions) with mRNA expression profiles may increase the reliability of the inference process. Here, I propose a new approach that incorporates transcription factor binding sites (TFBS) and physical protein interactions (PPI) among transcription factors (TFs) in a Bayesian variable selection (BVS) algorithm which can infer GRNs from mRNA expression profiles subjected to genetic perturbations. Using real experimental data, I show that the integration of TFBS and PPI data with mRNA expression profiles leads to significantly more accurate networks than those inferred from expression profiles alone. Additionally, the performance of the proposed algorithm is compared with a series of least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression-based network inference methods that can also incorporate prior knowledge in the inference framework. The results of this comparison suggest that BVS can outperform LASSO regression-based method in some circumstances.

Inference of neuronal network spike dynamics and topology from calcium imaging data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henry eLütcke

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Two-photon calcium imaging enables functional analysis of neuronal circuits by inferring action potential (AP occurrence ('spike trains' from cellular fluorescence signals. It remains unclear how experimental parameters such as signal-to-noise ratio (SNR and acquisition rate affect spike inference and whether additional information about network structure can be extracted. Here we present a simulation framework for quantitatively assessing how well spike dynamics and network topology can be inferred from noisy calcium imaging data. For simulated AP-evoked calcium transients in neocortical pyramidal cells, we analyzed the quality of spike inference as a function of SNR and data acquisition rate using a recently introduced peeling algorithm. Given experimentally attainable values of SNR and acquisition rate, neural spike trains could be reconstructed accurately and with up to millisecond precision. We then applied statistical neuronal network models to explore how remaining uncertainties in spike inference affect estimates of network connectivity and topological features of network organization. We define the experimental conditions suitable for inferring whether the network has a scale-free structure and determine how well hub neurons can be identified. Our findings provide a benchmark for future calcium imaging studies that aim to reliably infer neuronal network properties.

A Bayesian Framework That Integrates Heterogeneous Data for Inferring Gene Regulatory Networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santra, Tapesh

2014-01-01

Reconstruction of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from experimental data is a fundamental challenge in systems biology. A number of computational approaches have been developed to infer GRNs from mRNA expression profiles. However, expression profiles alone are proving to be insufficient for inferring GRN topologies with reasonable accuracy. Recently, it has been shown that integration of external data sources (such as gene and protein sequence information, gene ontology data, protein–protein interactions) with mRNA expression profiles may increase the reliability of the inference process. Here, I propose a new approach that incorporates transcription factor binding sites (TFBS) and physical protein interactions (PPI) among transcription factors (TFs) in a Bayesian variable selection (BVS) algorithm which can infer GRNs from mRNA expression profiles subjected to genetic perturbations. Using real experimental data, I show that the integration of TFBS and PPI data with mRNA expression profiles leads to significantly more accurate networks than those inferred from expression profiles alone. Additionally, the performance of the proposed algorithm is compared with a series of least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression-based network inference methods that can also incorporate prior knowledge in the inference framework. The results of this comparison suggest that BVS can outperform LASSO regression-based method in some circumstances.

Cortical hierarchies perform Bayesian causal inference in multisensory perception.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tim Rohe

2015-02-01

Full Text Available To form a veridical percept of the environment, the brain needs to integrate sensory signals from a common source but segregate those from independent sources. Thus, perception inherently relies on solving the "causal inference problem." Behaviorally, humans solve this problem optimally as predicted by Bayesian Causal Inference; yet, the underlying neural mechanisms are unexplored. Combining psychophysics, Bayesian modeling, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI, and multivariate decoding in an audiovisual spatial localization task, we demonstrate that Bayesian Causal Inference is performed by a hierarchy of multisensory processes in the human brain. At the bottom of the hierarchy, in auditory and visual areas, location is represented on the basis that the two signals are generated by independent sources (= segregation. At the next stage, in posterior intraparietal sulcus, location is estimated under the assumption that the two signals are from a common source (= forced fusion. Only at the top of the hierarchy, in anterior intraparietal sulcus, the uncertainty about the causal structure of the world is taken into account and sensory signals are combined as predicted by Bayesian Causal Inference. Characterizing the computational operations of signal interactions reveals the hierarchical nature of multisensory perception in human neocortex. It unravels how the brain accomplishes Bayesian Causal Inference, a statistical computation fundamental for perception and cognition. Our results demonstrate how the brain combines information in the face of uncertainty about the underlying causal structure of the world.

El enfoque de la mezcla surround en la música

OpenAIRE

Castro Gómez, Albert

2010-01-01

El método estandarizado de escuchar música es el conocido sistema estéreo. Únicamente con dos altavoces o dos auriculares se escucha cualquier tipo de sonido de la manera más cómoda, usándolo en la mayoría de reproductores, ordenadores, coches, etc… pero hay otras formas de escuchar música. Nuevas técnicas de sonido que amplían la respuesta auditiva. Este nuevo sonido se conoce como sonido envolvente, internacionalmente llamado sonido surround. El sonido surround trabaja con más canales audit...

Memory-Based Simple Heuristics as Attribute Substitution: Competitive Tests of Binary Choice Inference Models

Science.gov (United States)

Honda, Hidehito; Matsuka, Toshihiko; Ueda, Kazuhiro

2017-01-01

Some researchers on binary choice inference have argued that people make inferences based on simple heuristics, such as recognition, fluency, or familiarity. Others have argued that people make inferences based on available knowledge. To examine the boundary between heuristic and knowledge usage, we examine binary choice inference processes in…

Hierarchical Active Inference: A Theory of Motivated Control.

Science.gov (United States)

Pezzulo, Giovanni; Rigoli, Francesco; Friston, Karl J

2018-04-01

Motivated control refers to the coordination of behaviour to achieve affectively valenced outcomes or goals. The study of motivated control traditionally assumes a distinction between control and motivational processes, which map to distinct (dorsolateral versus ventromedial) brain systems. However, the respective roles and interactions between these processes remain controversial. We offer a novel perspective that casts control and motivational processes as complementary aspects - goal propagation and prioritization, respectively - of active inference and hierarchical goal processing under deep generative models. We propose that the control hierarchy propagates prior preferences or goals, but their precision is informed by the motivational context, inferred at different levels of the motivational hierarchy. The ensuing integration of control and motivational processes underwrites action and policy selection and, ultimately, motivated behaviour, by enabling deep inference to prioritize goals in a context-sensitive way. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

SPEEDY: An Eclipse-based IDE for invariant inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David R. Cok

2014-04-01

Full Text Available SPEEDY is an Eclipse-based IDE for exploring techniques that assist users in generating correct specifications, particularly including invariant inference algorithms and tools. It integrates with several back-end tools that propose invariants and will incorporate published algorithms for inferring object and loop invariants. Though the architecture is language-neutral, current SPEEDY targets C programs. Building and using SPEEDY has confirmed earlier experience demonstrating the importance of showing and editing specifications in the IDEs that developers customarily use, automating as much of the production and checking of specifications as possible, and showing counterexample information directly in the source code editing environment. As in previous work, automation of specification checking is provided by back-end SMT solvers. However, reducing the effort demanded of software developers using formal methods also requires a GUI design that guides users in writing, reviewing, and correcting specifications and automates specification inference.

Efficient Exact Inference With Loss Augmented Objective in Structured Learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, Alexander; Nakajima, Shinichi; Muller, Klaus-Robert

2016-08-19

Structural support vector machine (SVM) is an elegant approach for building complex and accurate models with structured outputs. However, its applicability relies on the availability of efficient inference algorithms--the state-of-the-art training algorithms repeatedly perform inference to compute a subgradient or to find the most violating configuration. In this paper, we propose an exact inference algorithm for maximizing nondecomposable objectives due to special type of a high-order potential having a decomposable internal structure. As an important application, our method covers the loss augmented inference, which enables the slack and margin scaling formulations of structural SVM with a variety of dissimilarity measures, e.g., Hamming loss, precision and recall, Fβ-loss, intersection over union, and many other functions that can be efficiently computed from the contingency table. We demonstrate the advantages of our approach in natural language parsing and sequence segmentation applications.

A general Bayes weibull inference model for accelerated life testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dorp, J. Rene van; Mazzuchi, Thomas A.

2005-01-01

This article presents the development of a general Bayes inference model for accelerated life testing. The failure times at a constant stress level are assumed to belong to a Weibull distribution, but the specification of strict adherence to a parametric time-transformation function is not required. Rather, prior information is used to indirectly define a multivariate prior distribution for the scale parameters at the various stress levels and the common shape parameter. Using the approach, Bayes point estimates as well as probability statements for use-stress (and accelerated) life parameters may be inferred from a host of testing scenarios. The inference procedure accommodates both the interval data sampling strategy and type I censored sampling strategy for the collection of ALT test data. The inference procedure uses the well-known MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) methods to derive posterior approximations. The approach is illustrated with an example

A linear programming model for protein inference problem in shotgun proteomics.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Ting; He, Zengyou

2012-11-15

Assembling peptides identified from tandem mass spectra into a list of proteins, referred to as protein inference, is an important issue in shotgun proteomics. The objective of protein inference is to find a subset of proteins that are truly present in the sample. Although many methods have been proposed for protein inference, several issues such as peptide degeneracy still remain unsolved. In this article, we present a linear programming model for protein inference. In this model, we use a transformation of the joint probability that each peptide/protein pair is present in the sample as the variable. Then, both the peptide probability and protein probability can be expressed as a formula in terms of the linear combination of these variables. Based on this simple fact, the protein inference problem is formulated as an optimization problem: minimize the number of proteins with non-zero probabilities under the constraint that the difference between the calculated peptide probability and the peptide probability generated from peptide identification algorithms should be less than some threshold. This model addresses the peptide degeneracy issue by forcing some joint probability variables involving degenerate peptides to be zero in a rigorous manner. The corresponding inference algorithm is named as ProteinLP. We test the performance of ProteinLP on six datasets. Experimental results show that our method is competitive with the state-of-the-art protein inference algorithms. The source code of our algorithm is available at: https://sourceforge.net/projects/prolp/. zyhe@dlut.edu.cn. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics Online.

Statistical inference on residual life

CERN Document Server

Jeong, Jong-Hyeon

2014-01-01

This is a monograph on the concept of residual life, which is an alternative summary measure of time-to-event data, or survival data. The mean residual life has been used for many years under the name of life expectancy, so it is a natural concept for summarizing survival or reliability data. It is also more interpretable than the popular hazard function, especially for communications between patients and physicians regarding the efficacy of a new drug in the medical field. This book reviews existing statistical methods to infer the residual life distribution. The review and comparison includes existing inference methods for mean and median, or quantile, residual life analysis through medical data examples. The concept of the residual life is also extended to competing risks analysis. The targeted audience includes biostatisticians, graduate students, and PhD (bio)statisticians. Knowledge in survival analysis at an introductory graduate level is advisable prior to reading this book.

Bayesian inference on proportional elections.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe Brunello

Full Text Available Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.

Probability biases as Bayesian inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andre; C. R. Martins

2006-11-01

Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.

Phylogenetic Inference of HIV Transmission Clusters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vlad Novitsky

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Better understanding the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks is essential for designing the most efficient interventions to prevent new HIV transmissions, and ultimately for gaining control of the HIV epidemic. The inference of phylogenetic relationships and the interpretation of results rely on the definition of the HIV transmission cluster. The definition of the HIV cluster is complex and dependent on multiple factors, including the design of sampling, accuracy of sequencing, precision of sequence alignment, evolutionary models, the phylogenetic method of inference, and specified thresholds for cluster support. While the majority of studies focus on clusters, non-clustered cases could also be highly informative. A new dimension in the analysis of the global and local HIV epidemics is the concept of phylogenetically distinct HIV sub-epidemics. The identification of active HIV sub-epidemics reveals spreading viral lineages and may help in the design of targeted interventions.HIVclustering can also be affected by sampling density. Obtaining a proper sampling density may increase statistical power and reduce sampling bias, so sampling density should be taken into account in study design and in interpretation of phylogenetic results. Finally, recent advances in long-range genotyping may enable more accurate inference of HIV transmission networks. If performed in real time, it could both inform public-health strategies and be clinically relevant (e.g., drug-resistance testing.

Causal inference of asynchronous audiovisual speech

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John F Magnotti

2013-11-01

Full Text Available During speech perception, humans integrate auditory information from the voice with visual information from the face. This multisensory integration increases perceptual precision, but only if the two cues come from the same talker; this requirement has been largely ignored by current models of speech perception. We describe a generative model of multisensory speech perception that includes this critical step of determining the likelihood that the voice and face information have a common cause. A key feature of the model is that it is based on a principled analysis of how an observer should solve this causal inference problem using the asynchrony between two cues and the reliability of the cues. This allows the model to make predictions abut the behavior of subjects performing a synchrony judgment task, predictive power that does not exist in other approaches, such as post hoc fitting of Gaussian curves to behavioral data. We tested the model predictions against the performance of 37 subjects performing a synchrony judgment task viewing audiovisual speech under a variety of manipulations, including varying asynchronies, intelligibility, and visual cue reliability. The causal inference model outperformed the Gaussian model across two experiments, providing a better fit to the behavioral data with fewer parameters. Because the causal inference model is derived from a principled understanding of the task, model parameters are directly interpretable in terms of stimulus and subject properties.

Functional neuroanatomy of intuitive physical inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Jason; Mikhael, John G; Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Kanwisher, Nancy

2016-08-23

To engage with the world-to understand the scene in front of us, plan actions, and predict what will happen next-we must have an intuitive grasp of the world's physical structure and dynamics. How do the objects in front of us rest on and support each other, how much force would be required to move them, and how will they behave when they fall, roll, or collide? Despite the centrality of physical inferences in daily life, little is known about the brain mechanisms recruited to interpret the physical structure of a scene and predict how physical events will unfold. Here, in a series of fMRI experiments, we identified a set of cortical regions that are selectively engaged when people watch and predict the unfolding of physical events-a "physics engine" in the brain. These brain regions are selective to physical inferences relative to nonphysical but otherwise highly similar scenes and tasks. However, these regions are not exclusively engaged in physical inferences per se or, indeed, even in scene understanding; they overlap with the domain-general "multiple demand" system, especially the parts of that system involved in action planning and tool use, pointing to a close relationship between the cognitive and neural mechanisms involved in parsing the physical content of a scene and preparing an appropriate action.

General Purpose Probabilistic Programming Platform with Effective Stochastic Inference

Science.gov (United States)

2018-04-01

REFERENCES 74 LIST OF ACRONYMS 80 ii List of Figures Figure 1. The problem of inferring curves from data while simultaneously choosing the...bottom path) as the inverse problem to computer graphics (top path). ........ 18 Figure 18. An illustration of generative probabilistic graphics for 3D...Building these systems involves simultaneously developing mathematical models, inference algorithms and optimized software implementations. Small changes

Causal inference in survival analysis using pseudo-observations.

Science.gov (United States)

Andersen, Per K; Syriopoulou, Elisavet; Parner, Erik T

2017-07-30

Causal inference for non-censored response variables, such as binary or quantitative outcomes, is often based on either (1) direct standardization ('G-formula') or (2) inverse probability of treatment assignment weights ('propensity score'). To do causal inference in survival analysis, one needs to address right-censoring, and often, special techniques are required for that purpose. We will show how censoring can be dealt with 'once and for all' by means of so-called pseudo-observations when doing causal inference in survival analysis. The pseudo-observations can be used as a replacement of the outcomes without censoring when applying 'standard' causal inference methods, such as (1) or (2) earlier. We study this idea for estimating the average causal effect of a binary treatment on the survival probability, the restricted mean lifetime, and the cumulative incidence in a competing risks situation. The methods will be illustrated in a small simulation study and via a study of patients with acute myeloid leukemia who received either myeloablative or non-myeloablative conditioning before allogeneic hematopoetic cell transplantation. We will estimate the average causal effect of the conditioning regime on outcomes such as the 3-year overall survival probability and the 3-year risk of chronic graft-versus-host disease. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sensorimotor Network Crucial for Inferring Amusement from Smiles.

Science.gov (United States)

Paracampo, Riccardo; Tidoni, Emmanuele; Borgomaneri, Sara; di Pellegrino, Giuseppe; Avenanti, Alessio

2017-11-01

Understanding whether another's smile reflects authentic amusement is a key challenge in social life, yet, the neural bases of this ability have been largely unexplored. Here, we combined transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) with a novel empathic accuracy (EA) task to test whether sensorimotor and mentalizing networks are critical for understanding another's amusement. Participants were presented with dynamic displays of smiles and explicitly requested to infer whether the smiling individual was feeling authentic amusement or not. TMS over sensorimotor regions representing the face (i.e., in the inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) and ventral primary somatosensory cortex (SI)), disrupted the ability to infer amusement authenticity from observed smiles. The same stimulation did not affect performance on a nonsocial task requiring participants to track the smiling expression but not to infer amusement. Neither TMS over prefrontal and temporo-parietal areas supporting mentalizing, nor peripheral control stimulations, affected performance on either task. Thus, motor and somatosensory circuits for controlling and sensing facial movements are causally essential for inferring amusement from another's smile. These findings highlight the functional relevance of IFG and SI to amusement understanding and suggest that EA abilities may be grounded in sensorimotor networks for moving and feeling the body. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Study on the Optimal Equivalent Radius in Calculating the Heat Dissipation of Surrounding Rock

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. T. Song

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The heat dissipation of surrounding rock of a non-circular roadway is computed using an equivalent circular roadway approach under three circumstances when the area, perimeter, or hydraulic diameter of the circular roadway is equal to the non-circular roadway to obtain the optimal equivalent radius. The differential equations of heat conduction for unstable surrounding rock are established in cylindrical and rectangular coordinate systems using dimensionless analysis method. The calculation formulas of heat dissipation capacity and heat transfer resistance are derived from differential equations. Based on the method of equivalent radius, the similarities and differences between non-circular and circular roadways in calculating the heat dissipation of surrounding rock are discussed. Using the finite volume method, the calculation models for non-circular and circular roadways in the heat dissipation of surrounding rock are also established, among the non-circular roadways including three circumstances, namely, trapezoid, rectangle, and arch. The relation errors of heat dissipation of the surrounding rock of the three equivalent circular roadway methods are investigated for the three non-circular roadways. Results show that the calculation approach with equal perimeters is the best for the heat dissipation of surrounding rock of non-circular roadways.

Analysis of the geomorphology surrounding the Chang'e-3 landing site

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chun-Lai; Mu, Ling-Li; Zou, Xiao-Duan; Liu, Jian-Jun; Ren, Xin; Zeng, Xing-Guo; Yang, Yi-Man; Zhang, Zhou-Bin; Liu, Yu-Xuan; Zuo, Wei; Li, Han

2014-12-01

Chang'e-3 (CE-3) landed on the Mare Imbrium basin in the east part of Sinus Iridum (19.51°W, 44.12°N), which was China's first soft landing on the Moon and it started collecting data on the lunar surface environment. To better understand the environment of this region, this paper utilizes the available high-resolution topography data, image data and geological data to carry out a detailed analysis and research on the area surrounding the landing site (Sinus Iridum and 45 km×70 km of the landing area) as well as on the topography, landform, geology and lunar dust of the area surrounding the landing site. A general topographic analysis of the surrounding area is based on a digital elevation model and digital elevation model data acquired by Chang'e-2 that have high resolution; the geology analysis is based on lunar geological data published by USGS; the study on topographic factors and distribution of craters and rocks in the surrounding area covering 4 km×4 km or even smaller is based on images from the CE-3 landing camera and images from the topographic camera; an analysis is done of the effect of the CE-3 engine plume on the lunar surface by comparing images before and after the landing using data from the landing camera. A comprehensive analysis of the results shows that the landing site and its surrounding area are identified as typical lunar mare with flat topography. They are suitable for maneuvers by the rover, and are rich in geological phenomena and scientific targets, making it an ideal site for exploration.

Ultrastructural relationship of the phagophore with surrounding organelles.

Science.gov (United States)

Biazik, Joanna; Ylä-Anttila, Päivi; Vihinen, Helena; Jokitalo, Eija; Eskelinen, Eeva-Liisa

2015-01-01

Phagophore nucleates from a subdomain of the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) termed the omegasome and also makes contact with other organelles such as mitochondria, Golgi complex, plasma membrane and recycling endosomes during its formation. We have used serial block face scanning electron microscopy (SB-EM) and electron tomography (ET) to image phagophore biogenesis in 3 dimensions and to determine the relationship between the phagophore and surrounding organelles at high resolution. ET was performed to confirm whether membrane contact sites (MCSs) are evident between the phagophore and those surrounding organelles. In addition to the known contacts with the ER, we identified MCSs between the phagophore and membranes from putative ER exit sites, late endosomes or lysosomes, the Golgi complex and mitochondria. We also show that one phagophore can have simultaneous MCSs with more than one organelle. Future membrane flux experiments are needed to determine whether membrane contacts also signify lipid translocation.

Nonparametric statistical inference

CERN Document Server

Gibbons, Jean Dickinson

2010-01-01

Overall, this remains a very fine book suitable for a graduate-level course in nonparametric statistics. I recommend it for all people interested in learning the basic ideas of nonparametric statistical inference.-Eugenia Stoimenova, Journal of Applied Statistics, June 2012… one of the best books available for a graduate (or advanced undergraduate) text for a theory course on nonparametric statistics. … a very well-written and organized book on nonparametric statistics, especially useful and recommended for teachers and graduate students.-Biometrics, 67, September 2011This excellently presente

Inference of gene-phenotype associations via protein-protein interaction and orthology.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Panwen Wang

Full Text Available One of the fundamental goals of genetics is to understand gene functions and their associated phenotypes. To achieve this goal, in this study we developed a computational algorithm that uses orthology and protein-protein interaction information to infer gene-phenotype associations for multiple species. Furthermore, we developed a web server that provides genome-wide phenotype inference for six species: fly, human, mouse, worm, yeast, and zebrafish. We evaluated our inference method by comparing the inferred results with known gene-phenotype associations. The high Area Under the Curve values suggest a significant performance of our method. By applying our method to two human representative diseases, Type 2 Diabetes and Breast Cancer, we demonstrated that our method is able to identify related Gene Ontology terms and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes pathways. The web server can be used to infer functions and putative phenotypes of a gene along with the candidate genes of a phenotype, and thus aids in disease candidate gene discovery. Our web server is available at http://jjwanglab.org/PhenoPPIOrth.

Utilitarian Moral Judgment Exclusively Coheres with Inference from Is to Ought.

Science.gov (United States)

Elqayam, Shira; Wilkinson, Meredith R; Thompson, Valerie A; Over, David E; Evans, Jonathan St B T

2017-01-01

Faced with moral choice, people either judge according to pre-existing obligations ( deontological judgment), or by taking into account the consequences of their actions ( utilitarian judgment). We propose that the latter coheres with a more general cognitive mechanism - deontic introduction , the tendency to infer normative ('deontic') conclusions from descriptive premises (is-ought inference). Participants were presented with vignettes that allowed either deontological or utilitarian choice, and asked to draw a range of deontic conclusions, as well as judge the overall moral rightness of each choice separately. We predicted and found a selective defeasibility pattern, in which manipulations that suppressed deontic introduction also suppressed utilitarian moral judgment, but had little effect on deontological moral judgment. Thus, deontic introduction coheres with utilitarian moral judgment almost exclusively. We suggest a family of norm-generating informal inferences, in which normative conclusions are drawn from descriptive (although value-laden) premises. This family includes deontic introduction and utilitarian moral judgment as well as other informal inferences. We conclude with a call for greater integration of research in moral judgment and research into deontic reasoning and informal inference.

A Comparative Analysis of Fuzzy Inference Engines in Context of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Fuzzy inference engine has found successful applications in a wide variety of fields, such as automatic control, data classification, decision analysis, expert engines, time series prediction, robotics, pattern recognition, etc. This paper presents a comparative analysis of three fuzzy inference engines, max-product, max-min ...

An experimental investigation of transient heat transfer in surrounding rock mass of high geothermal roadway

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhang Yuan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A self-designed experimental installation for transient heat transfer in the modelling surrounding rock mass of high geothermal roadways was elaborated in this paper. By utilizing the new installation, the temperature variation rules in surrounding rock mass of the high geothermal roadway during mechanical ventilation were studied. The results show that the roadway wall temperature decreases dramatically at the early stage of ventilation, and the temperature at every position of the surrounding rock mass is decreasing constantly with time passing by. From roadway wall to deep area, the temperature gradually increases until reaching original rock temperature. The relationship between dimensionless temperature and dimensionless radius demonstrates approximately exponential function. Meanwhile, the temperature disturbance range in the simulated surrounding rock mass extends gradually from the roadway wall to deep area in the surrounding rock mass. Besides, as the air velocity increases, heat loss in the surrounding rock mass rises and the ratio of temperature reduction becomes larger, the speed of disturbance range expansion also gets faster.

Believing What You're Told: Politeness and Scalar Inferences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diana Mazzarella

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The experimental pragmatics literature has extensively investigated the ways in which distinct contextual factors affect the computation of scalar inferences, whose most studied example is the one that allows “Some X-ed” to mean Not all X-ed. Recent studies from Bonnefon et al. (2009, 2011 investigate the effect of politeness on the interpretation of scalar utterances. They argue that when the scalar utterance is face-threatening (“Some people hated your speech” (i the scalar inference is less likely to be derived, and (ii the semantic interpretation of “some” (at least some is arrived at slowly and effortfully. This paper re-evaluates the role of politeness in the computation of scalar inferences by drawing on the distinction between “comprehension” and “epistemic assessment” of communicated information. In two experiments, we test the hypothesis that, in these face-threatening contexts, scalar inferences are largely derived but are less likely to be accepted as true. In line with our predictions, we find that slowdowns in the face-threatening condition are attributable to longer reaction times at the (latter epistemic assessment stage, but not at the comprehension stage.

Inferring ontology graph structures using OWL reasoning

KAUST Repository

Rodriguez-Garcia, Miguel Angel

2018-01-05

Ontologies are representations of a conceptualization of a domain. Traditionally, ontologies in biology were represented as directed acyclic graphs (DAG) which represent the backbone taxonomy and additional relations between classes. These graphs are widely exploited for data analysis in the form of ontology enrichment or computation of semantic similarity. More recently, ontologies are developed in a formal language such as the Web Ontology Language (OWL) and consist of a set of axioms through which classes are defined or constrained. While the taxonomy of an ontology can be inferred directly from the axioms of an ontology as one of the standard OWL reasoning tasks, creating general graph structures from OWL ontologies that exploit the ontologies\\' semantic content remains a challenge.We developed a method to transform ontologies into graphs using an automated reasoner while taking into account all relations between classes. Searching for (existential) patterns in the deductive closure of ontologies, we can identify relations between classes that are implied but not asserted and generate graph structures that encode for a large part of the ontologies\\' semantic content. We demonstrate the advantages of our method by applying it to inference of protein-protein interactions through semantic similarity over the Gene Ontology and demonstrate that performance is increased when graph structures are inferred using deductive inference according to our method. Our software and experiment results are available at http://github.com/bio-ontology-research-group/Onto2Graph .Onto2Graph is a method to generate graph structures from OWL ontologies using automated reasoning. The resulting graphs can be used for improved ontology visualization and ontology-based data analysis.

Inferring ontology graph structures using OWL reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez-García, Miguel Ángel; Hoehndorf, Robert

2018-01-05

Ontologies are representations of a conceptualization of a domain. Traditionally, ontologies in biology were represented as directed acyclic graphs (DAG) which represent the backbone taxonomy and additional relations between classes. These graphs are widely exploited for data analysis in the form of ontology enrichment or computation of semantic similarity. More recently, ontologies are developed in a formal language such as the Web Ontology Language (OWL) and consist of a set of axioms through which classes are defined or constrained. While the taxonomy of an ontology can be inferred directly from the axioms of an ontology as one of the standard OWL reasoning tasks, creating general graph structures from OWL ontologies that exploit the ontologies' semantic content remains a challenge. We developed a method to transform ontologies into graphs using an automated reasoner while taking into account all relations between classes. Searching for (existential) patterns in the deductive closure of ontologies, we can identify relations between classes that are implied but not asserted and generate graph structures that encode for a large part of the ontologies' semantic content. We demonstrate the advantages of our method by applying it to inference of protein-protein interactions through semantic similarity over the Gene Ontology and demonstrate that performance is increased when graph structures are inferred using deductive inference according to our method. Our software and experiment results are available at http://github.com/bio-ontology-research-group/Onto2Graph . Onto2Graph is a method to generate graph structures from OWL ontologies using automated reasoning. The resulting graphs can be used for improved ontology visualization and ontology-based data analysis.

Learning about the internal structure of categories through classification and feature inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Jee, Benjamin D; Wiley, Jennifer

2014-01-01

Previous research on category learning has found that classification tasks produce representations that are skewed toward diagnostic feature dimensions, whereas feature inference tasks lead to richer representations of within-category structure. Yet, prior studies often measure category knowledge through tasks that involve identifying only the typical features of a category. This neglects an important aspect of a category's internal structure: how typical and atypical features are distributed within a category. The present experiments tested the hypothesis that inference learning results in richer knowledge of internal category structure than classification learning. We introduced several new measures to probe learners' representations of within-category structure. Experiment 1 found that participants in the inference condition learned and used a wider range of feature dimensions than classification learners. Classification learners, however, were more sensitive to the presence of atypical features within categories. Experiment 2 provided converging evidence that classification learners were more likely to incorporate atypical features into their representations. Inference learners were less likely to encode atypical category features, even in a "partial inference" condition that focused learners' attention on the feature dimensions relevant to classification. Overall, these results are contrary to the hypothesis that inference learning produces superior knowledge of within-category structure. Although inference learning promoted representations that included a broad range of category-typical features, classification learning promoted greater sensitivity to the distribution of typical and atypical features within categories.

Psychotic Experiences and Overhasty Inferences Are Related to Maladaptive Learning.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heiner Stuke

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Theoretical accounts suggest that an alteration in the brain's learning mechanisms might lead to overhasty inferences, resulting in psychotic symptoms. Here, we sought to elucidate the suggested link between maladaptive learning and psychosis. Ninety-eight healthy individuals with varying degrees of delusional ideation and hallucinatory experiences performed a probabilistic reasoning task that allowed us to quantify overhasty inferences. Replicating previous results, we found a relationship between psychotic experiences and overhasty inferences during probabilistic reasoning. Computational modelling revealed that the behavioral data was best explained by a novel computational learning model that formalizes the adaptiveness of learning by a non-linear distortion of prediction error processing, where an increased non-linearity implies a growing resilience against learning from surprising and thus unreliable information (large prediction errors. Most importantly, a decreased adaptiveness of learning predicted delusional ideation and hallucinatory experiences. Our current findings provide a formal description of the computational mechanisms underlying overhasty inferences, thereby empirically substantiating theories that link psychosis to maladaptive learning.

seXY: a tool for sex inference from genotype arrays.

Science.gov (United States)

Qian, David C; Busam, Jonathan A; Xiao, Xiangjun; O'Mara, Tracy A; Eeles, Rosalind A; Schumacher, Frederick R; Phelan, Catherine M; Amos, Christopher I

2017-02-15

Checking concordance between reported sex and genotype-inferred sex is a crucial quality control measure in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, limited insights exist regarding the true accuracy of software that infer sex from genotype array data. We present seXY, a logistic regression model trained on both X chromosome heterozygosity and Y chromosome missingness, that consistently demonstrated >99.5% sex inference accuracy in cross-validation for 889 males and 5,361 females enrolled in prostate cancer and ovarian cancer GWAS. Compared to PLINK, one of the most popular tools for sex inference in GWAS that assesses only X chromosome heterozygosity, seXY achieved marginally better male classification and 3% more accurate female classification. https://github.com/Christopher-Amos-Lab/seXY. Christopher.I.Amos@dartmouth.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Linking disadvantaged housing areas to the surrounding city

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stender, Marie

Several disadvantaged social housing areas in Denmark are currently undergo-ing thorough physical refurbishments, aiming to integrate them better with the surrounding city. The ambition is to attract new users and residents by opening up the borders of the area and establish attractive, new...

Statistical inference from imperfect photon detection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Audenaert, Koenraad M R; Scheel, Stefan

2009-01-01

We consider the statistical properties of photon detection with imperfect detectors that exhibit dark counts and less than unit efficiency, in the context of tomographic reconstruction. In this context, the detectors are used to implement certain positive operator-valued measures (POVMs) that would allow us to reconstruct the quantum state or quantum process under consideration. Here we look at the intermediate step of inferring outcome probabilities from measured outcome frequencies, and show how this inference can be performed in a statistically sound way in the presence of detector imperfections. Merging outcome probabilities for different sets of POVMs into a consistent quantum state picture has been treated elsewhere (Audenaert and Scheel 2009 New J. Phys. 11 023028). Single-photon pulsed measurements as well as continuous wave measurements are covered.

Role of Speaker Cues in Attention Inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jin Joo Lee

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Current state-of-the-art approaches to emotion recognition primarily focus on modeling the nonverbal expressions of the sole individual without reference to contextual elements such as the co-presence of the partner. In this paper, we demonstrate that the accurate inference of listeners’ social-emotional state of attention depends on accounting for the nonverbal behaviors of their storytelling partner, namely their speaker cues. To gain a deeper understanding of the role of speaker cues in attention inference, we conduct investigations into real-world interactions of children (5–6 years old storytelling with their peers. Through in-depth analysis of human–human interaction data, we first identify nonverbal speaker cues (i.e., backchannel-inviting cues and listener responses (i.e., backchannel feedback. We then demonstrate how speaker cues can modify the interpretation of attention-related backchannels as well as serve as a means to regulate the responsiveness of listeners. We discuss the design implications of our findings toward our primary goal of developing attention recognition models for storytelling robots, and we argue that social robots can proactively use speaker cues to form more accurate inferences about the attentive state of their human partners.

Likelihood inference for unions of interacting discs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Jesper; Helisová, Katarina

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper which discusses likelihood inference or a random set using a germ-grain model, where the individual grains are unobservable edge effects occur, and other complications appear. We consider the case where the grains form a disc process modelled...... is specified with respect to a given marked Poisson model (i.e. a Boolean model). We show how edge effects and other complications can be handled by considering a certain conditional likelihood. Our methodology is illustrated by analyzing Peter Diggle's heather dataset, where we discuss the results...... of simulation-based maximum likelihood inference and the effect of specifying different reference Poisson models....

Likelihood inference for unions of interacting discs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Jesper; Helisova, K.

2010-01-01

This is probably the first paper which discusses likelihood inference for a random set using a germ-grain model, where the individual grains are unobservable, edge effects occur and other complications appear. We consider the case where the grains form a disc process modelled by a marked point...... process, where the germs are the centres and the marks are the associated radii of the discs. We propose to use a recent parametric class of interacting disc process models, where the minimal sufficient statistic depends on various geometric properties of the random set, and the density is specified......-based maximum likelihood inference and the effect of specifying different reference Poisson models....

On non-linear magnetic-charged black hole surrounded by quintessence

Science.gov (United States)

Nam, Cao H.

2018-06-01

We derive a non-linear magnetic-charged black hole surrounded by quintessence, which behaves asymptotically like the Schwarzschild black hole surrounded by quintessence but at the short distances like the dS geometry. The horizon properties of this black hole are investigated in detail. The thermodynamics of the black hole is studied in the local and global views. Finally, by calculating the heat capacity and the free energy, we point to that the black hole may undergo a thermal phase transition, between a larger unstable black hole and a smaller stable black hole, at a critical temperature.

Crust Structure Data of Seas Surrounding Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maden, N.; Gelisli, K.

2007-01-01

Black Sea, Aegean, Mediterranean and Marmara Sea, which surround the Turkey, have not been examined with respect to the Geological, Geophysical and other natural sciences sufficiently. In fact, it is not attach importance the Turkish seas adequately and abandoned with respect to the scientific researches. The most important reason of this situation is the lack of the education of the Marine Sciences in the Turkish Universities. In this study, it is tried to construct a crustal structure data base of the surrounding seas of the Turkey by collecting crustal structure data sets done by different authors in different times so far. The data acquired in the base are collected from different data base sources by dragging. The Moho depth in the eastern and western basin of the Black sea is 22 km and 19 km, respectively. In the Marmara Sea the Moho depth is 24 km. The moho value in the southern Aegean is 20 km, in the northern Aegean the moho depth is 30 km. on the other hand, the moho depth value in the eastern and western basin of the Mediterranean Sea are 15-20 km and 25-30 km, respectively

Development of the Bayesian method for unavailability inference. The new inferential theory and the examples of inference using BWR outage data in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakamura, Makoto

2009-01-01

It is important for Level 1 PSA to quantify input reliability parameters and their uncertainty. Bayesian methods for inference of system/component unavailability, however, are not well studied. At present practitioners allocate the uncertainty (i.e. error factor) of the unavailability based on engineering judgment. Systematic methods based on Bayesian statistics are needed for quantification of such uncertainty. In this study we have developed a new method for Bayesian inference of unavailability, where the posterior of system/component unavailability is described by the inverted gamma distribution. We show that the average of the posterior comes close to the point estimate of the unavailability as the number of outages goes to infinity. That indicates validity of the new method. Using plant data recorded in NUCIA, we have applied the new method to inference of system unavailability under unplanned outages due to violations of LCO at BWRs in Japan. According to the inference results, the unavailability is populated in the order of 10 -5 -10 -4 and the error factor is within 1-2. Thus, the new Bayesian method allows one to quantify magnitudes and widths (i.e. error factor) of uncertainty distributions of unavailability. (author)

Simultaneous inference for model averaging of derived parameters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Signe Marie; Ritz, Christian

2015-01-01

Model averaging is a useful approach for capturing uncertainty due to model selection. Currently, this uncertainty is often quantified by means of approximations that do not easily extend to simultaneous inference. Moreover, in practice there is a need for both model averaging and simultaneous...... inference for derived parameters calculated in an after-fitting step. We propose a method for obtaining asymptotically correct standard errors for one or several model-averaged estimates of derived parameters and for obtaining simultaneous confidence intervals that asymptotically control the family...

Enhancing area surrounding breast carcinoma on MR mammography: comparison with pathological examination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goethem, M. van; Verslegers, I.; Biltjes, I.; Schepper, A. de; Schelfout, K.; Colpaert, C.; Kersschot, E.; Tjalma, W.A.; Weyler, J.

2004-01-01

The enhancing area surrounding breast carcinoma on MR mammography is correlated with findings from pathological examination. We studied 194 patients with breast cancer who underwent preoperative MR mammography. Of all malignant lesions presenting with an enhancing surrounding area on MR mammography, morphologic features including long spicules, a ductal pattern, diffuse enhancement or nodules were evaluated and compared with histopathological examination. A double breast coil was used; we performed a 3D FLASH sequence with contiguous coronal slices of 2 mm, before and after injection of 0.2 mmol/kg GD-DTPA, and subtraction images were obtained. In total, 297 malignant lesions were detected at MR mammography and 101 of them had one or more types of enhancing surrounding area. In 49 of the 53 cancers with long spicules and in 49 of the 55 cancers with surrounding ductal pattern of enhancement, pathological examination showed in situ and/or invasive carcinoma. Multiple nodules adjacent to the carcinoma were seen in 20 patients and corresponded with six cases of invasive and ten cases of ductal in situ carcinoma. A diffuse enhancing area next to a mass was seen in ten patients and consisted of carcinoma in all cases: seven in situ and three invasive carcinomas. Enhancing areas including long spicules, a ductal pattern, noduli, or diffuse enhancement surrounding a carcinoma corresponded with in situ or invasive extension of the carcinoma in 92.5, 89, 80 and 100% of cases, respectively. (orig.)

Congested Link Inference Algorithms in Dynamic Routing IP Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu Chen

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The performance descending of current congested link inference algorithms is obviously in dynamic routing IP network, such as the most classical algorithm CLINK. To overcome this problem, based on the assumptions of Markov property and time homogeneity, we build a kind of Variable Structure Discrete Dynamic Bayesian (VSDDB network simplified model of dynamic routing IP network. Under the simplified VSDDB model, based on the Bayesian Maximum A Posteriori (BMAP and Rest Bayesian Network Model (RBNM, we proposed an Improved CLINK (ICLINK algorithm. Considering the concurrent phenomenon of multiple link congestion usually happens, we also proposed algorithm CLILRS (Congested Link Inference algorithm based on Lagrangian Relaxation Subgradient to infer the set of congested links. We validated our results by the experiments of analogy, simulation, and actual Internet.

Inference of population history and patterns from molecular data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tataru, Paula

, the existing mathematical models and computational methods need to be reformulated. I address this from an inference perspective in two areas of bioinformatics. Population genetics studies the influence exerted by various factors on the dynamics of a population's genetic variation. These factors cover...... evolutionary forces, such as mutation and selection, but also changes in population size. The aim in population genetics is to untangle the history of a population from observed genetic variation. This subject is dominated by two dual models, the Wright-Fisher and coalescent. I first introduce a new...... approximation to the Wright-Fisher model, which I show to accurately infer split times between populations. This approximation can potentially be applied for inference of mutation rates and selection coefficients. I then illustrate how the coalescent process is the natural framework for detecting traces...

Modeling and control of an unstable system using probabilistic fuzzy inference system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sozhamadevi N.

2015-09-01

Full Text Available A new type Fuzzy Inference System is proposed, a Probabilistic Fuzzy Inference system which model and minimizes the effects of statistical uncertainties. The blend of two different concepts, degree of truth and probability of truth in a unique framework leads to this new concept. This combination is carried out both in Fuzzy sets and Fuzzy rules, which gives rise to Probabilistic Fuzzy Sets and Probabilistic Fuzzy Rules. Introducing these probabilistic elements, a distinctive probabilistic fuzzy inference system is developed and this involves fuzzification, inference and output processing. This integrated approach accounts for all of the uncertainty like rule uncertainties and measurement uncertainties present in the systems and has led to the design which performs optimally after training. In this paper a Probabilistic Fuzzy Inference System is applied for modeling and control of a highly nonlinear, unstable system and also proved its effectiveness.

Illusory inferences from a disjunction of conditionals: a new mental models account.

Science.gov (United States)

Barrouillet, P; Lecas, J F

2000-08-14

(Johnson-Laird, P.N., & Savary, F. (1999, Illusory inferences: a novel class of erroneous deductions. Cognition, 71, 191-229.) have recently presented a mental models account, based on the so-called principle of truth, for the occurrence of inferences that are compelling but invalid. This article presents an alternative account of the illusory inferences resulting from a disjunction of conditionals. In accordance with our modified theory of mental models of the conditional, we show that the way individuals represent conditionals leads them to misinterpret the locus of the disjunction and prevents them from drawing conclusions from a false conditional, thus accounting for the compelling character of the illusory inference.

Effectively Communicating the Uncertainties Surrounding Ebola Virus Transmission.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andy Kilianski

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The current Ebola virus outbreak has highlighted the uncertainties surrounding many aspects of Ebola virus virology, including routes of transmission. The scientific community played a leading role during the outbreak-potentially, the largest of its kind-as many of the questions surrounding ebolaviruses have only been interrogated in the laboratory. Scientists provided an invaluable resource for clinicians, public health officials, policy makers, and the lay public in understanding the progress of Ebola virus disease and the continuing outbreak. Not all of the scientific communication, however, was accurate or effective. There were multiple instances of published articles during the height of the outbreak containing potentially misleading scientific language that spurred media overreaction and potentially jeopardized preparedness and policy decisions at critical points. Here, we use articles declaring the potential for airborne transmission of Ebola virus as a case study in the inaccurate reporting of basic science, and we provide recommendations for improving the communication about unknown aspects of disease during public health crises.

Effectively Communicating the Uncertainties Surrounding Ebola Virus Transmission.

Science.gov (United States)

Kilianski, Andy; Evans, Nicholas G

2015-10-01

The current Ebola virus outbreak has highlighted the uncertainties surrounding many aspects of Ebola virus virology, including routes of transmission. The scientific community played a leading role during the outbreak-potentially, the largest of its kind-as many of the questions surrounding ebolaviruses have only been interrogated in the laboratory. Scientists provided an invaluable resource for clinicians, public health officials, policy makers, and the lay public in understanding the progress of Ebola virus disease and the continuing outbreak. Not all of the scientific communication, however, was accurate or effective. There were multiple instances of published articles during the height of the outbreak containing potentially misleading scientific language that spurred media overreaction and potentially jeopardized preparedness and policy decisions at critical points. Here, we use articles declaring the potential for airborne transmission of Ebola virus as a case study in the inaccurate reporting of basic science, and we provide recommendations for improving the communication about unknown aspects of disease during public health crises.

Statistical Inference and Patterns of Inequality in the Global North

Science.gov (United States)

Moran, Timothy Patrick

2006-01-01

Cross-national inequality trends have historically been a crucial field of inquiry across the social sciences, and new methodological techniques of statistical inference have recently improved the ability to analyze these trends over time. This paper applies Monte Carlo, bootstrap inference methods to the income surveys of the Luxembourg Income…

A Comparative Analysis of Fuzzy Inference Engines in Context of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

PROF. O. E. OSUAGWU

Fuzzy Inference engine is an important part of reasoning systems capable of extracting correct conclusions from ... is known as the inference, or rule definition portion, of fuzzy .... minimal set of decision rules based on input- ... The study uses Mamdani FIS model and. Sugeno FIS ... control of induction motor drive. [18] study.

Bayesian inference for partially identified models exploring the limits of limited data

CERN Document Server

Gustafson, Paul

2015-01-01

Introduction Identification What Is against Us? What Is for Us? Some Simple Examples of Partially Identified ModelsThe Road Ahead The Structure of Inference in Partially Identified Models Bayesian Inference The Structure of Posterior Distributions in PIMs Computational Strategies Strength of Bayesian Updating, Revisited Posterior MomentsCredible Intervals Evaluating the Worth of Inference Partial Identification versus Model Misspecification The Siren Call of Identification Comp

Scalable inference for stochastic block models

KAUST Repository

Peng, Chengbin; Zhang, Zhihua; Wong, Ka-Chun; Zhang, Xiangliang; Keyes, David E.

2017-01-01

Community detection in graphs is widely used in social and biological networks, and the stochastic block model is a powerful probabilistic tool for describing graphs with community structures. However, in the era of "big data," traditional inference

Efficient fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithms for incorporating expert knowledge in parameter estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Rajabi, Mohammad Mahdi; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad

2016-05-01

Bayesian inference has traditionally been conceived as the proper framework for the formal incorporation of expert knowledge in parameter estimation of groundwater models. However, conventional Bayesian inference is incapable of taking into account the imprecision essentially embedded in expert provided information. In order to solve this problem, a number of extensions to conventional Bayesian inference have been introduced in recent years. One of these extensions is 'fuzzy Bayesian inference' which is the result of integrating fuzzy techniques into Bayesian statistics. Fuzzy Bayesian inference has a number of desirable features which makes it an attractive approach for incorporating expert knowledge in the parameter estimation process of groundwater models: (1) it is well adapted to the nature of expert provided information, (2) it allows to distinguishably model both uncertainty and imprecision, and (3) it presents a framework for fusing expert provided information regarding the various inputs of the Bayesian inference algorithm. However an important obstacle in employing fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater numerical modeling applications is the computational burden, as the required number of numerical model simulations often becomes extremely exhaustive and often computationally infeasible. In this paper, a novel approach of accelerating the fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithm is proposed which is based on using approximate posterior distributions derived from surrogate modeling, as a screening tool in the computations. The proposed approach is first applied to a synthetic test case of seawater intrusion (SWI) in a coastal aquifer. It is shown that for this synthetic test case, the proposed approach decreases the number of required numerical simulations by an order of magnitude. Then the proposed approach is applied to a real-world test case involving three-dimensional numerical modeling of SWI in Kish Island, located in the Persian Gulf. An expert

Opportunity's Surroundings on Sol 1687

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity used its navigation camera to take the images combined into this 360-degree view of the rover's surroundings on the 1,687th Martian day, or sol, of its surface mission (Oct. 22, 2008). Opportunity had driven 133 meters (436 feet) that sol, crossing sand ripples up to about 10 centimeters (4 inches) tall. The tracks visible in the foreground are in the east-northeast direction. Opportunity's position on Sol 1687 was about 300 meters southwest of Victoria Crater. The rover was beginning a long trek toward a much larger crater, Endeavour, about 12 kilometers (7 miles) to the southeast. This view is presented as a cylindrical projection with geometric seam correction.

Opportunity's Surroundings on Sol 1798

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity used its navigation camera to take the images combined into this 180-degree view of the rover's surroundings during the 1,798th Martian day, or sol, of Opportunity's surface mission (Feb. 13, 2009). North is on top. The rover had driven 111 meters (364 feet) southward on the preceding sol. Tracks from that drive recede northward in this view. For scale, the distance between the parallel wheel tracks is about 1 meter (about 40 inches). The terrain in this portion of Mars' Meridiani Planum region includes dark-toned sand ripples and lighter-toned bedrock. This view is presented as a cylindrical projection with geometric seam correction.

Statistical inferences for bearings life using sudden death test

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Morariu Cristin-Olimpiu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we propose a calculus method for reliability indicators estimation and a complete statistical inferences for three parameters Weibull distribution of bearings life. Using experimental values regarding the durability of bearings tested on stands by the sudden death tests involves a series of particularities of the estimation using maximum likelihood method and statistical inference accomplishment. The paper detailing these features and also provides an example calculation.

Assessing school-aged children's inference-making: the effect of story test format in listening comprehension.

Science.gov (United States)

Freed, Jenny; Cain, Kate

2017-01-01

Comprehension is critical for classroom learning and educational success. Inferences are integral to good comprehension: successful comprehension requires the listener to generate local coherence inferences, which involve integrating information between clauses, and global coherence inferences, which involve integrating textual information with background knowledge to infer motivations, themes, etc. A central priority for the diagnosis of comprehension difficulties and our understanding of why these difficulties arise is the development of valid assessment instruments. We explored typically developing children's ability to make local and global coherence inferences using a novel assessment of listening comprehension. The aims were to determine whether children were more likely to make the target inferences when these were asked during story presentation versus after presentation of the story, and whether there were any age differences between conditions. Children in Years 3 (n = 29) and 5 (n = 31) listened to short stories presented either in a segmented format, in which questions to assess local and global coherence inferences were asked at specific points during story presentation, or in a whole format, when all the questions were asked after the story had been presented. There was developmental progression between age groups for both types of inference question. Children also scored higher on the global coherence inference questions than the local coherence inference questions. There was a benefit of the segmented format for younger children, particularly for the local inference questions. The results suggest that children are more likely to make target inferences if prompted during presentation of the story, and that this format is particularly facilitative for younger children and for local coherence inferences. This has implications for the design of comprehension assessments as well as for supporting children with comprehension difficulties in the classroom

Deontic Introduction: A Theory of Inference from Is to Ought

Science.gov (United States)

Elqayam, Shira; Thompson, Valerie A.; Wilkinson, Meredith R.; Evans, Jonathan St. B. T.; Over, David E.

2015-01-01

Humans have a unique ability to generate novel norms. Faced with the knowledge that there are hungry children in Somalia, we easily and naturally infer that we ought to donate to famine relief charities. Although a contentious and lively issue in metaethics, such inference from "is" to "ought" has not been systematically…

Image-Data Compression Using Edge-Optimizing Algorithm for WFA Inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Culik, Karel II; Kari, Jarkko

1994-01-01

Presents an inference algorithm that produces a weighted finite automata (WFA), in particular, the grayness functions of graytone images. Image-data compression results based on the new inference algorithm produces a WFA with a relatively small number of edges. Image-data compression results alone and in combination with wavelets are discussed.…

Causal learning and inference as a rational process: the new synthesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Holyoak, Keith J; Cheng, Patricia W

2011-01-01

Over the past decade, an active line of research within the field of human causal learning and inference has converged on a general representational framework: causal models integrated with bayesian probabilistic inference. We describe this new synthesis, which views causal learning and inference as a fundamentally rational process, and review a sample of the empirical findings that support the causal framework over associative alternatives. Causal events, like all events in the distal world as opposed to our proximal perceptual input, are inherently unobservable. A central assumption of the causal approach is that humans (and potentially nonhuman animals) have been designed in such a way as to infer the most invariant causal relations for achieving their goals based on observed events. In contrast, the associative approach assumes that learners only acquire associations among important observed events, omitting the representation of the distal relations. By incorporating bayesian inference over distributions of causal strength and causal structures, along with noisy-logical (i.e., causal) functions for integrating the influences of multiple causes on a single effect, human judgments about causal strength and structure can be predicted accurately for relatively simple causal structures. Dynamic models of learning based on the causal framework can explain patterns of acquisition observed with serial presentation of contingency data and are consistent with available neuroimaging data. The approach has been extended to a diverse range of inductive tasks, including category-based and analogical inferences.

Utilitarian Moral Judgment Exclusively Coheres with Inference from Is to Ought

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shira Elqayam

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Faced with moral choice, people either judge according to pre-existing obligations (deontological judgment, or by taking into account the consequences of their actions (utilitarian judgment. We propose that the latter coheres with a more general cognitive mechanism – deontic introduction, the tendency to infer normative (‘deontic’ conclusions from descriptive premises (is-ought inference. Participants were presented with vignettes that allowed either deontological or utilitarian choice, and asked to draw a range of deontic conclusions, as well as judge the overall moral rightness of each choice separately. We predicted and found a selective defeasibility pattern, in which manipulations that suppressed deontic introduction also suppressed utilitarian moral judgment, but had little effect on deontological moral judgment. Thus, deontic introduction coheres with utilitarian moral judgment almost exclusively. We suggest a family of norm-generating informal inferences, in which normative conclusions are drawn from descriptive (although value-laden premises. This family includes deontic introduction and utilitarian moral judgment as well as other informal inferences. We conclude with a call for greater integration of research in moral judgment and research into deontic reasoning and informal inference.

New developments of a knowledge based system (VEG) for inferring vegetation characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Kimes, D. S.; Harrison, P. A.; Harrison, P. R.

1992-01-01

An extraction technique for inferring physical and biological surface properties of vegetation using nadir and/or directional reflectance data as input has been developed. A knowledge-based system (VEG) accepts spectral data of an unknown target as input, determines the best strategy for inferring the desired vegetation characteristic, applies the strategy to the target data, and provides a rigorous estimate of the accuracy of the inference. Progress in developing the system is presented. VEG combines methods from remote sensing and artificial intelligence, and integrates input spectral measurements with diverse knowledge bases. VEG has been developed to (1) infer spectral hemispherical reflectance from any combination of nadir and/or off-nadir view angles; (2) test and develop new extraction techniques on an internal spectral database; (3) browse, plot, or analyze directional reflectance data in the system's spectral database; (4) discriminate between user-defined vegetation classes using spectral and directional reflectance relationships; and (5) infer unknown view angles from known view angles (known as view angle extension).

Inferring Pairwise Interactions from Biological Data Using Maximum-Entropy Probability Models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard R Stein

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Maximum entropy-based inference methods have been successfully used to infer direct interactions from biological datasets such as gene expression data or sequence ensembles. Here, we review undirected pairwise maximum-entropy probability models in two categories of data types, those with continuous and categorical random variables. As a concrete example, we present recently developed inference methods from the field of protein contact prediction and show that a basic set of assumptions leads to similar solution strategies for inferring the model parameters in both variable types. These parameters reflect interactive couplings between observables, which can be used to predict global properties of the biological system. Such methods are applicable to the important problems of protein 3-D structure prediction and association of gene-gene networks, and they enable potential applications to the analysis of gene alteration patterns and to protein design.

Surrounding information consideration promotes cooperation in Prisoner’s dilemma game

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shu, Gang; Du, Xia; Li, Ya

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A new method of strategy updating is proposed in the Prisoner’s dilemma game. • The stochastic players only consider their neighbor’s payoff and update strategy by classical Fermi rule. • The advanced player would consider not only the neighbor’s payoff but also the neighbors’ local surrounding information. • The simulation result illustrates that with the increase of advanced players in the network, the fraction of cooperation increases. - Abstract: Evolutionary game theory provides a useful, integrative framework for studying the evolution of cooperation. A new strategy updating method is proposed in our model. Due to people with diversified thinking, players are divided into two categories based on their different strategy updating method: ordinary players and advanced players. The former players only consider their neighbor’s payoff and updating strategy by classical Fermi rule, while the latter players take both the neighbors’ surrounding information and payoff into account. The results show that the neighbors surrounding information consideration contributes to the evolution of cooperation and finds the fraction of cooperation grows evidently with the increase of advanced players numbers. Our model may provide a pragmatic approach to the research of cooperation in social network.

Generic patch inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Jesper; Lawall, Julia

2010-01-01

A key issue in maintaining Linux device drivers is the need to keep them up to date with respect to evolutions in Linux internal libraries. Currently, there is little tool support for performing and documenting such changes. In this paper we present a tool, spdiff, that identifies common changes...... developers can use it to extract an abstract representation of the set of changes that others have made. Our experiments on recent changes in Linux show that the inferred generic patches are more concise than the corresponding patches found in commits to the Linux source tree while being safe with respect...

Glow phenomenon surrounding the vertical stabilizer and OMS pods

Science.gov (United States)

1994-01-01

This 35mm frame, photographed as the Space Shuttle Columbia was orbiting Earth during a 'night' pass, documents the glow phenomenon surrounding the vertical stabilizer and the Orbital Maneuvering System (OMS) pods of the spacecraft.

Inferring time-varying network topologies from gene expression data.

Science.gov (United States)

Rao, Arvind; Hero, Alfred O; States, David J; Engel, James Douglas

2007-01-01

Most current methods for gene regulatory network identification lead to the inference of steady-state networks, that is, networks prevalent over all times, a hypothesis which has been challenged. There has been a need to infer and represent networks in a dynamic, that is, time-varying fashion, in order to account for different cellular states affecting the interactions amongst genes. In this work, we present an approach, regime-SSM, to understand gene regulatory networks within such a dynamic setting. The approach uses a clustering method based on these underlying dynamics, followed by system identification using a state-space model for each learnt cluster--to infer a network adjacency matrix. We finally indicate our results on the mouse embryonic kidney dataset as well as the T-cell activation-based expression dataset and demonstrate conformity with reported experimental evidence.

Network Model-Assisted Inference from Respondent-Driven Sampling Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Gile, Krista J; Handcock, Mark S

2015-06-01

Respondent-Driven Sampling is a widely-used method for sampling hard-to-reach human populations by link-tracing over their social networks. Inference from such data requires specialized techniques because the sampling process is both partially beyond the control of the researcher, and partially implicitly defined. Therefore, it is not generally possible to directly compute the sampling weights for traditional design-based inference, and likelihood inference requires modeling the complex sampling process. As an alternative, we introduce a model-assisted approach, resulting in a design-based estimator leveraging a working network model. We derive a new class of estimators for population means and a corresponding bootstrap standard error estimator. We demonstrate improved performance compared to existing estimators, including adjustment for an initial convenience sample. We also apply the method and an extension to the estimation of HIV prevalence in a high-risk population.

Models for probability and statistical inference theory and applications

CERN Document Server

Stapleton, James H

2007-01-01

This concise, yet thorough, book is enhanced with simulations and graphs to build the intuition of readersModels for Probability and Statistical Inference was written over a five-year period and serves as a comprehensive treatment of the fundamentals of probability and statistical inference. With detailed theoretical coverage found throughout the book, readers acquire the fundamentals needed to advance to more specialized topics, such as sampling, linear models, design of experiments, statistical computing, survival analysis, and bootstrapping.Ideal as a textbook for a two-semester sequence on probability and statistical inference, early chapters provide coverage on probability and include discussions of: discrete models and random variables; discrete distributions including binomial, hypergeometric, geometric, and Poisson; continuous, normal, gamma, and conditional distributions; and limit theory. Since limit theory is usually the most difficult topic for readers to master, the author thoroughly discusses mo...

Traditional Indian customs surrounding birth A review | Chalmers ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Since 1960, only a few studies have been made of traditional custOIns surrounding birth in Indian culture. Very few of these have described customs followed by Indians in South Africa. A review of these publications is presented here. Customs described include religious, social and psychological aspects of behaviour in ...

Reduced visual surround suppression in schizophrenia shown by measuring contrast detection thresholds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ignacio eSerrano-Pedraza

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Visual perception in schizophrenia is attracting a broad interest given the deep knowledge that we have about the visual system in healthy population. In visual science it is known that the visibility of a grating located in the visual periphery is impaired by the presence of a surrounding grating of the same spatial frequency and orientation. Previous studies have suggested abnormal visual surround suppression in patients with schizophrenia. Given that schizophrenia patients have cortical alterations including hypofunction of NMDA receptors and reduced concentration of GABA neurotransmitter, which affect lateral inhibitory connections, then they should perform better than controls in visual suppression tasks. We tested this hypothesis by measuring contrast detection thresholds using a new stimulus configuration. We tested two groups: 21 schizophrenia patients and 24 healthy subjects. Thresholds were obtained using Bayesian staircases in a 4AFC detection task where the target was a grating within a 3 deg Butterworth window that appeared in one of four possible positions at 5 deg eccentricity. We compared three conditions, a target with no surround (NS, b target on top of a surrounding grating of 20 deg diameter and 25% contrast with same spatial frequency and orthogonal orientation (OS, and c target on top of a surrounding grating with parallel (same orientation (PS. Our results show significantly lower thresholds for controls than for patients in NS and OS conditions. We also found significant lower suppression ratios PS/NS in patients. Our results support the hypothesis that inhibitory lateral connections in early visual cortex are impaired in schizophrenia patients.

Efficient probabilistic inference in generic neural networks trained with non-probabilistic feedback.

Science.gov (United States)

Orhan, A Emin; Ma, Wei Ji

2017-07-26

Animals perform near-optimal probabilistic inference in a wide range of psychophysical tasks. Probabilistic inference requires trial-to-trial representation of the uncertainties associated with task variables and subsequent use of this representation. Previous work has implemented such computations using neural networks with hand-crafted and task-dependent operations. We show that generic neural networks trained with a simple error-based learning rule perform near-optimal probabilistic inference in nine common psychophysical tasks. In a probabilistic categorization task, error-based learning in a generic network simultaneously explains a monkey's learning curve and the evolution of qualitative aspects of its choice behavior. In all tasks, the number of neurons required for a given level of performance grows sublinearly with the input population size, a substantial improvement on previous implementations of probabilistic inference. The trained networks develop a novel sparsity-based probabilistic population code. Our results suggest that probabilistic inference emerges naturally in generic neural networks trained with error-based learning rules.Behavioural tasks often require probability distributions to be inferred about task specific variables. Here, the authors demonstrate that generic neural networks can be trained using a simple error-based learning rule to perform such probabilistic computations efficiently without any need for task specific operations.

How A Black Hole Lights Up Its Surroundings

Science.gov (United States)

Kohler, Susanna

2017-10-01

How do the supermassive black holes that live at the centers of galaxies influence their environments? New observations of a distant active galaxy offer clues about this interaction.Signs of CoevolutionPlot demonstrating the m-sigma relation, the empirical correlation between the stellar velocity dispersion of a galactic bulge and the mass of the supermassive black hole at its center. [Msigma]We know that the centers of active galaxies host supermassive black holes with masses of millions to billions of suns. One mystery surrounding these beasts is that they are observed to evolve simultaneously with their host galaxies for instance, an empirical relationship is seen between the growth of a black hole and the growth of its host galaxys bulge. This suggests that there must be a feedback mechanism through which the evolution of a black hole is linked to that of its host galaxy.One proposed source of this coupling is the powerful jets emitted from the poles of these supermassive black holes. These jets are thought to be produced as some of the material accreting onto the black hole is flung out, confined by surrounding gas and magnetic fields. Because the jets of hot gas and radiation extend outward through the host galaxy, they provide a means for the black hole to influence the gas and dust of its surroundings.In our current model of a radio-loud active galactic nuclei,a region of hot, ionized gas the narrow-line region lies beyond the sphere of influence of the supermassive black hole. [C.M. Urry and P. Padovani]Clues in the Narrow-Line RegionThe region of gas thought to sit just outside of the black holes sphere of influence (at a distance of perhaps a thousand to a few thousand light-years) is known as the narrow line region so named because we observe narrow emission lines from this gas. Given its hot, ionized state, this gas must somehow be being pummeled with energy. In the canonical picture, radiation from the black hole heats the gas directly in a process

Cortical information flow during inferences of agency

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Myrthel eDogge

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Building on the recent finding that agency experiences do not merely rely on sensorimotor information but also on cognitive cues, this exploratory study uses electroencephalographic recordings to examine functional connectivity during agency inference processing in a setting where action and outcome are independent. Participants completed a computerized task in which they pressed a button followed by one of two color words (red or blue and rated their experienced agency over producing the color. Before executing the action, a matching or mismatching color word was pre-activated by explicitly instructing participants to produce the color (goal condition or by briefly presenting the color word (prime condition. In both conditions, experienced agency was higher in matching versus mismatching trials. Furthermore, increased electroencephalography (EEG-based connectivity strength was observed between parietal and frontal nodes and within the (prefrontal cortex when color-outcomes matched with goals and participants reported high agency. This pattern of increased connectivity was not identified in trials where outcomes were pre-activated through primes. These results suggest that different connections are involved in the experience and in the loss of agency, as well as in inferences of agency resulting from different types of pre-activation. Moreover, the findings provide novel support for the involvement of a fronto-parietal network in agency inferences.

Massive optimal data compression and density estimation for scalable, likelihood-free inference in cosmology

Science.gov (United States)

Alsing, Justin; Wandelt, Benjamin; Feeney, Stephen

2018-03-01

Many statistical models in cosmology can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihood functions. Likelihood-free inference methods allow us to perform Bayesian inference from these models using only forward simulations, free from any likelihood assumptions or approximations. Likelihood-free inference generically involves simulating mock data and comparing to the observed data; this comparison in data-space suffers from the curse of dimensionality and requires compression of the data to a small number of summary statistics to be tractable. In this paper we use massive asymptotically-optimal data compression to reduce the dimensionality of the data-space to just one number per parameter, providing a natural and optimal framework for summary statistic choice for likelihood-free inference. Secondly, we present the first cosmological application of Density Estimation Likelihood-Free Inference (DELFI), which learns a parameterized model for joint distribution of data and parameters, yielding both the parameter posterior and the model evidence. This approach is conceptually simple, requires less tuning than traditional Approximate Bayesian Computation approaches to likelihood-free inference and can give high-fidelity posteriors from orders of magnitude fewer forward simulations. As an additional bonus, it enables parameter inference and Bayesian model comparison simultaneously. We demonstrate Density Estimation Likelihood-Free Inference with massive data compression on an analysis of the joint light-curve analysis supernova data, as a simple validation case study. We show that high-fidelity posterior inference is possible for full-scale cosmological data analyses with as few as ˜104 simulations, with substantial scope for further improvement, demonstrating the scalability of likelihood-free inference to large and complex cosmological datasets.

Evaluation of artificial time series microarray data for dynamic gene regulatory network inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Xenitidis, P; Seimenis, I; Kakolyris, S; Adamopoulos, A

2017-08-07

High-throughput technology like microarrays is widely used in the inference of gene regulatory networks (GRNs). We focused on time series data since we are interested in the dynamics of GRNs and the identification of dynamic networks. We evaluated the amount of information that exists in artificial time series microarray data and the ability of an inference process to produce accurate models based on them. We used dynamic artificial gene regulatory networks in order to create artificial microarray data. Key features that characterize microarray data such as the time separation of directly triggered genes, the percentage of directly triggered genes and the triggering function type were altered in order to reveal the limits that are imposed by the nature of microarray data on the inference process. We examined the effect of various factors on the inference performance such as the network size, the presence of noise in microarray data, and the network sparseness. We used a system theory approach and examined the relationship between the pole placement of the inferred system and the inference performance. We examined the relationship between the inference performance in the time domain and the true system parameter identification. Simulation results indicated that time separation and the percentage of directly triggered genes are crucial factors. Also, network sparseness, the triggering function type and noise in input data affect the inference performance. When two factors were simultaneously varied, it was found that variation of one parameter significantly affects the dynamic response of the other. Crucial factors were also examined using a real GRN and acquired results confirmed simulation findings with artificial data. Different initial conditions were also used as an alternative triggering approach. Relevant results confirmed that the number of datasets constitutes the most significant parameter with regard to the inference performance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier

Using Vertical Structure to Infer the Total Mass Hidden in a Debris Disk

Science.gov (United States)

Daley, Cail; Hughes, A. Meredith; Carter, Evan; Flaherty, Kevin; Stafford Lambros, Zachary; Pan, Margaret; Schlichting, Hilke; Chiang, Eugene; Wilner, David; Dent, Bill; Carpenter, John; Andrews, Sean; MacGregor, Meredith Ann; Moor, Attila; Kospal, Agnes

2018-01-01

Disks of optically thin debris dust surround ≥ 20% of main sequence stars and mark the final stage of planetary system evolution. The features of debris disks encode dynamical interactions between the dust and any unseen planets embedded in the disk. The vertical distribution of the dust is particularly sensitive to the total mass of planetesimal bodies in the disk, and is therefore well suited for constraining the prevalence of otherwise unobservable Uranus and Neptune analogs. Inferences of mass from debris disk vertical structure have previously been applied to infrared and optical observations of several systems, but the smaller particles traced by short-wavelength observations are ‘puffed up’ by radiation pressure, yielding only upper limits on the total embedded mass. The large grains that dominate the emission at millimeter wavelengths are essentially impervious to the effects of stellar radiation, and therefore trace the underlying mass distribution more directly. Here we present 1.3mm dust continuum observations of the debris disk around the nearby M star AU Mic with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA). The 3 au spatial resolution of the observations, combined with the favorable edge-on geometry of the system, allows us to measure the vertical structure of a debris disk at millimeter wavelengths for the first time. We analyze the data using a ray-tracing code that translates a 2-D density and temperature structure into a model sky image of the disk. This model image is then compared directly to the interferometric data in the visibility domain, and the model parameters are explored using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo routine. We measure a scale height-to-radius ratio of 0.03, which we then compare to a theoretical model of steady-state, size-dependent velocity distributions in the collisional cascade to infer a total mass within the disk of ∼ 1.7 Earth masses. These measurements rule out the presence of a gas giant or Neptune

Ontological Constraints in Children's Inductive Inferences: Evidence From a Comparison of Inferences Within Animals and Vehicles.

Science.gov (United States)

Tarlowski, Andrzej

2018-01-01

There is a lively debate concerning the role of conceptual and perceptual information in young children's inductive inferences. While most studies focus on the role of basic level categories in induction the present research contributes to the debate by asking whether children's inductions are guided by ontological constraints. Two studies use a novel inductive paradigm to test whether young children have an expectation that all animals share internal commonalities that do not extend to perceptually similar inanimates. The results show that children make category-consistent responses when asked to project an internal feature from an animal to either a dissimilar animal or a similar toy replica. However, the children do not have a universal preference for category-consistent responses in an analogous task involving vehicles and vehicle toy replicas. The results also show the role of context and individual factors in inferences. Children's early reliance on ontological commitments in induction cannot be explained by perceptual similarity or by children's sensitivity to the authenticity of objects.

Processing of Scalar Inferences by Mandarin Learners of English: An Online Measure.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yowyu Lin

Full Text Available Scalar inferences represent the condition when a speaker uses a weaker expression such as some in a pragmatic scale like , and s/he has the intention to reject the stronger use of the other word like all in the utterance. Considerable disagreement has arisen concerning how interlocutors derive the inferences. The study presented here tries to address this issue by examining online scalar inferences among Mandarin learners of English. To date, Default Inference and Relevance Theory have made different predictions regarding how people process scalar inferences. Findings from recently emerging first language studies did not fully resolved the debate but led to even more heated debates. The current three online psycholinguistic experiments reported here tried to address the processing of scalar inferences from second language perspective. Results showed that Mandarin learners of English showed faster reaction times and a higher acceptance rate when interpreting some as some but not all and this was true even when subjects were under time pressure, which was manifested in Experiment 2. Overall, the results of the experiments supported Default Theory. In addition, Experiment 3 also found that working memory capacity plays a critical role during scalar inference processing. High span readers were faster in accepting the some but not all interpretation than low span readers. However, compared with low span readers, high span readers were more likely to accept the some and possibly all condition, possibly due to their working memory capacity to generate scenarios to fit the interpretation.

Probabilistic Decision Graphs - Combining Verification and AI Techniques for Probabilistic Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2004-01-01

We adopt probabilistic decision graphs developed in the field of automated verification as a tool for probabilistic model representation and inference. We show that probabilistic inference has linear time complexity in the size of the probabilistic decision graph, that the smallest probabilistic ...

Review of Ordered Anarchy: Jasay and his Surroundings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aschwin de Wolf

2009-02-01

Full Text Available Anthony de Jasay is among the most important social thinkers of our time. His oeuvre offers a sustained critique of government and its defenders. In the book Ordered Anarchy: Jasay and His Surroundings, colleagues and friends pay tribute to the man in the form of an inspiring collection of essays.

Ignorability in Statistical and Probabilistic Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2005-01-01

When dealing with incomplete data in statistical learning, or incomplete observations in probabilistic inference, one needs to distinguish the fact that a certain event is observed from the fact that the observed event has happened. Since the modeling and computational complexities entailed...

Quasi-Experimental Designs for Causal Inference

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Yongnam; Steiner, Peter

2016-01-01

When randomized experiments are infeasible, quasi-experimental designs can be exploited to evaluate causal treatment effects. The strongest quasi-experimental designs for causal inference are regression discontinuity designs, instrumental variable designs, matching and propensity score designs, and comparative interrupted time series designs. This…

Inferring probabilistic stellar rotation periods using Gaussian processes

Science.gov (United States)

Angus, Ruth; Morton, Timothy; Aigrain, Suzanne; Foreman-Mackey, Daniel; Rajpaul, Vinesh

2018-02-01

Variability in the light curves of spotted, rotating stars is often non-sinusoidal and quasi-periodic - spots move on the stellar surface and have finite lifetimes, causing stellar flux variations to slowly shift in phase. A strictly periodic sinusoid therefore cannot accurately model a rotationally modulated stellar light curve. Physical models of stellar surfaces have many drawbacks preventing effective inference, such as highly degenerate or high-dimensional parameter spaces. In this work, we test an appropriate effective model: a Gaussian Process with a quasi-periodic covariance kernel function. This highly flexible model allows sampling of the posterior probability density function of the periodic parameter, marginalizing over the other kernel hyperparameters using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. To test the effectiveness of this method, we infer rotation periods from 333 simulated stellar light curves, demonstrating that the Gaussian process method produces periods that are more accurate than both a sine-fitting periodogram and an autocorrelation function method. We also demonstrate that it works well on real data, by inferring rotation periods for 275 Kepler stars with previously measured periods. We provide a table of rotation periods for these and many more, altogether 1102 Kepler objects of interest, and their posterior probability density function samples. Because this method delivers posterior probability density functions, it will enable hierarchical studies involving stellar rotation, particularly those involving population modelling, such as inferring stellar ages, obliquities in exoplanet systems, or characterizing star-planet interactions. The code used to implement this method is available online.

A permeability barrier surrounds taste buds in lingual epithelia

Science.gov (United States)

Dando, Robin; Pereira, Elizabeth; Kurian, Mani; Barro-Soria, Rene; Chaudhari, Nirupa

2014-01-01

Epithelial tissues are characterized by specialized cell-cell junctions, typically localized to the apical regions of cells. These junctions are formed by interacting membrane proteins and by cytoskeletal and extracellular matrix components. Within the lingual epithelium, tight junctions join the apical tips of the gustatory sensory cells in taste buds. These junctions constitute a selective barrier that limits penetration of chemosensory stimuli into taste buds (Michlig et al. J Comp Neurol 502: 1003–1011, 2007). We tested the ability of chemical compounds to permeate into sensory end organs in the lingual epithelium. Our findings reveal a robust barrier that surrounds the entire body of taste buds, not limited to the apical tight junctions. This barrier prevents penetration of many, but not all, compounds, whether they are applied topically, injected into the parenchyma of the tongue, or circulating in the blood supply, into taste buds. Enzymatic treatments indicate that this barrier likely includes glycosaminoglycans, as it was disrupted by chondroitinase but, less effectively, by proteases. The barrier surrounding taste buds could also be disrupted by brief treatment of lingual tissue samples with DMSO. Brief exposure of lingual slices to DMSO did not affect the ability of taste buds within the slice to respond to chemical stimulation. The existence of a highly impermeable barrier surrounding taste buds and methods to break through this barrier may be relevant to basic research and to clinical treatments of taste. PMID:25209263

A permeability barrier surrounds taste buds in lingual epithelia.

Science.gov (United States)

Dando, Robin; Pereira, Elizabeth; Kurian, Mani; Barro-Soria, Rene; Chaudhari, Nirupa; Roper, Stephen D

2015-01-01

Epithelial tissues are characterized by specialized cell-cell junctions, typically localized to the apical regions of cells. These junctions are formed by interacting membrane proteins and by cytoskeletal and extracellular matrix components. Within the lingual epithelium, tight junctions join the apical tips of the gustatory sensory cells in taste buds. These junctions constitute a selective barrier that limits penetration of chemosensory stimuli into taste buds (Michlig et al. J Comp Neurol 502: 1003-1011, 2007). We tested the ability of chemical compounds to permeate into sensory end organs in the lingual epithelium. Our findings reveal a robust barrier that surrounds the entire body of taste buds, not limited to the apical tight junctions. This barrier prevents penetration of many, but not all, compounds, whether they are applied topically, injected into the parenchyma of the tongue, or circulating in the blood supply, into taste buds. Enzymatic treatments indicate that this barrier likely includes glycosaminoglycans, as it was disrupted by chondroitinase but, less effectively, by proteases. The barrier surrounding taste buds could also be disrupted by brief treatment of lingual tissue samples with DMSO. Brief exposure of lingual slices to DMSO did not affect the ability of taste buds within the slice to respond to chemical stimulation. The existence of a highly impermeable barrier surrounding taste buds and methods to break through this barrier may be relevant to basic research and to clinical treatments of taste. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

Dopamine, reward learning, and active inference.

Science.gov (United States)

FitzGerald, Thomas H B; Dolan, Raymond J; Friston, Karl

2015-01-01

Temporal difference learning models propose phasic dopamine signaling encodes reward prediction errors that drive learning. This is supported by studies where optogenetic stimulation of dopamine neurons can stand in lieu of actual reward. Nevertheless, a large body of data also shows that dopamine is not necessary for learning, and that dopamine depletion primarily affects task performance. We offer a resolution to this paradox based on an hypothesis that dopamine encodes the precision of beliefs about alternative actions, and thus controls the outcome-sensitivity of behavior. We extend an active inference scheme for solving Markov decision processes to include learning, and show that simulated dopamine dynamics strongly resemble those actually observed during instrumental conditioning. Furthermore, simulated dopamine depletion impairs performance but spares learning, while simulated excitation of dopamine neurons drives reward learning, through aberrant inference about outcome states. Our formal approach provides a novel and parsimonious reconciliation of apparently divergent experimental findings.

Inferences on Children’s Reading Groups

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Javier González García

2009-05-01

Full Text Available This article focuses on the non-literal information of a text, which can be inferred from key elements or clues offered by the text itself. This kind of text is called implicit text or inference, due to the thinking process that it stimulates. The explicit resources that lead to information retrieval are related to others of implicit information, which have increased their relevance. In this study, during two courses, how two teachers interpret three stories and how they establish a debate dividing the class into three student groups, was analyzed. The sample was formed by two classes of two urban public schools of Burgos capital (Spain, and two of public schools of Tampico (Mexico. This allowed us to observe an increasing percentage value of the group focused in text comprehension, and a lesser percentage of the group perceiving comprehension as a secondary objective.

Completion is an Instance of Abstract Canonical System Inference

OpenAIRE

Burel , Guillaume; Kirchner , Claude

2006-01-01

http://www.springerlink.com/content/u222753gl333221p/; Abstract canonical systems and inference (ACSI) were introduced to formalize the intuitive notions of good proof and good inference appearing typically in first-order logic or in Knuth-Bendix like completion procedures. Since this abstract framework is intended to be generic, it is of fundamental interest to show its adequacy to represent the main systems of interest. This has been done for ground completion (where all equational axioms a...

On Thinking First and Responding Fast: Flexibility in Social Inference Processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Krull, Douglas S.; Dill, Jody C.

1996-01-01

Investigates the order in which dispositional and situational information is considered. Results indicate that perceivers are flexible in their inference processes: they are able to draw either dispositional or situational inferences initially. Greater understanding of the mechanisms and determinants of social judgments has important implications…

Network Model-Assisted Inference from Respondent-Driven Sampling Data

Science.gov (United States)

Gile, Krista J.; Handcock, Mark S.

2015-01-01

Summary Respondent-Driven Sampling is a widely-used method for sampling hard-to-reach human populations by link-tracing over their social networks. Inference from such data requires specialized techniques because the sampling process is both partially beyond the control of the researcher, and partially implicitly defined. Therefore, it is not generally possible to directly compute the sampling weights for traditional design-based inference, and likelihood inference requires modeling the complex sampling process. As an alternative, we introduce a model-assisted approach, resulting in a design-based estimator leveraging a working network model. We derive a new class of estimators for population means and a corresponding bootstrap standard error estimator. We demonstrate improved performance compared to existing estimators, including adjustment for an initial convenience sample. We also apply the method and an extension to the estimation of HIV prevalence in a high-risk population. PMID:26640328

Summertime ozone formation in Xi'an and surrounding areas, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Feng

2016-04-01

Full Text Available In this study, the ozone (O3 formation in China's northwest city of Xi'an and surrounding areas is investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting atmospheric chemistry (WRF-Chem model during the period from 22 to 24 August 2013, corresponding to a heavy air pollution episode with high concentrations of O3 and PM2.5. The model generally performs well compared to measurements in simulating the surface temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed and direction, near-surface O3 and PM2.5 mass concentrations, and aerosol constituents. High aerosol concentrations in Xi'an and surrounding areas significantly decrease the photolysis frequencies and can reduce O3 concentrations by more than 50 µg m−3 (around 25 ppb on average. Sensitivity studies show that the O3 production regime in Xi'an and surrounding areas is complicated, varying from NOx to VOC (volatile organic compound-sensitive chemistry. The industrial emissions contribute the most to the O3 concentrations compared to biogenic and other anthropogenic sources, but neither individual anthropogenic emission nor biogenic emission plays a dominant role in the O3 formation. Under high O3 and PM2.5 concentrations, a 50 % reduction in all the anthropogenic emissions only decreases near-surface O3 concentrations by about 14 % during daytime. The complicated O3 production regime and high aerosol levels pose a challenge for O3 control strategies in Xi'an and surrounding areas. Further investigation regarding O3 control strategies will need to be performed, taking into consideration the rapid changes in anthropogenic emissions that are not reflected in the current emission inventories and the uncertainties in the meteorological field simulations.

An oxygen-rich dust disk surrounding an evolved star in the Red Rectangle

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Waters, LBFM; Waelkens, C; van Winckel, H; Molster, FJ; Tielens, AGGM; van Loon, JT; Morris, PW; Cami, J; Bouwman, J; de Koter, A; de Jong, T; de Graauw, T

1998-01-01

The Red Rectangle(1) is the prototype of a class of carbon-rich reflection nebulae surrounding low-mass stars in the final stages of evolution. The central star of this nebula has ejected most of its layers (during the red-giant phase), which now form the surrounding cloud, and is rapidly evolving

Inferring Human Mobility from Sparse Low Accuracy Mobile Sensing Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cuttone, Andrea; Jørgensen, Sune Lehmann; Larsen, Jakob Eg

2014-01-01

Understanding both collective and personal human mobility is a central topic in Computational Social Science. Smartphone sensing data is emerging as a promising source for studying human mobility. However, most literature focuses on high-precision GPS positioning and high-frequency sampling, which...... is not always feasible in a longitudinal study or for everyday applications because location sensing has a high battery cost. In this paper we study the feasibility of inferring human mobility from sparse, low accuracy mobile sensing data. We validate our results using participants' location diaries......, and analyze the inferred geographical networks, the time spent at different places, and the number of unique places over time. Our results suggest that low resolution data allows accurate inference of human mobility patterns....

Analysis of the geomorphology surrounding the Chang'e-3 landing site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Chun-Lai; Mu Ling-Li; Zou Xiao-Duan; Liu Jian-Jun; Ren Xin; Zeng Xing-Guo; Yang Yi-Man; Zhang Zhou-Bin; Liu Yu-Xuan; Zuo Wei; Li Han

2014-01-01

Chang'e-3 (CE-3) landed on the Mare Imbrium basin in the east part of Sinus Iridum (19.51°W, 44.12°N), which was China's first soft landing on the Moon and it started collecting data on the lunar surface environment. To better understand the environment of this region, this paper utilizes the available high-resolution topography data, image data and geological data to carry out a detailed analysis and research on the area surrounding the landing site (Sinus Iridum and 45 km×70 km of the landing area) as well as on the topography, landform, geology and lunar dust of the area surrounding the landing site. A general topographic analysis of the surrounding area is based on a digital elevation model and digital elevation model data acquired by Chang'e-2 that have high resolution; the geology analysis is based on lunar geological data published by USGS; the study on topographic factors and distribution of craters and rocks in the surrounding area covering 4 km×4 km or even smaller is based on images from the CE-3 landing camera and images from the topographic camera; an analysis is done of the effect of the CE-3 engine plume on the lunar surface by comparing images before and after the landing using data from the landing camera. A comprehensive analysis of the results shows that the landing site and its surrounding area are identified as typical lunar mare with flat topography. They are suitable for maneuvers by the rover, and are rich in geological phenomena and scientific targets, making it an ideal site for exploration

Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael

2009-01-01

Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....

Bayesian inference for Markov jump processes with informative observations.

Science.gov (United States)

Golightly, Andrew; Wilkinson, Darren J

2015-04-01

In this paper we consider the problem of parameter inference for Markov jump process (MJP) representations of stochastic kinetic models. Since transition probabilities are intractable for most processes of interest yet forward simulation is straightforward, Bayesian inference typically proceeds through computationally intensive methods such as (particle) MCMC. Such methods ostensibly require the ability to simulate trajectories from the conditioned jump process. When observations are highly informative, use of the forward simulator is likely to be inefficient and may even preclude an exact (simulation based) analysis. We therefore propose three methods for improving the efficiency of simulating conditioned jump processes. A conditioned hazard is derived based on an approximation to the jump process, and used to generate end-point conditioned trajectories for use inside an importance sampling algorithm. We also adapt a recently proposed sequential Monte Carlo scheme to our problem. Essentially, trajectories are reweighted at a set of intermediate time points, with more weight assigned to trajectories that are consistent with the next observation. We consider two implementations of this approach, based on two continuous approximations of the MJP. We compare these constructs for a simple tractable jump process before using them to perform inference for a Lotka-Volterra system. The best performing construct is used to infer the parameters governing a simple model of motility regulation in Bacillus subtilis.

Inference of directional selection and mutation parameters assuming equilibrium.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogl, Claus; Bergman, Juraj

2015-12-01

In a classical study, Wright (1931) proposed a model for the evolution of a biallelic locus under the influence of mutation, directional selection and drift. He derived the equilibrium distribution of the allelic proportion conditional on the scaled mutation rate, the mutation bias and the scaled strength of directional selection. The equilibrium distribution can be used for inference of these parameters with genome-wide datasets of "site frequency spectra" (SFS). Assuming that the scaled mutation rate is low, Wright's model can be approximated by a boundary-mutation model, where mutations are introduced into the population exclusively from sites fixed for the preferred or unpreferred allelic states. With the boundary-mutation model, inference can be partitioned: (i) the shape of the SFS distribution within the polymorphic region is determined by random drift and directional selection, but not by the mutation parameters, such that inference of the selection parameter relies exclusively on the polymorphic sites in the SFS; (ii) the mutation parameters can be inferred from the amount of polymorphic and monomorphic preferred and unpreferred alleles, conditional on the selection parameter. Herein, we derive maximum likelihood estimators for the mutation and selection parameters in equilibrium and apply the method to simulated SFS data as well as empirical data from a Madagascar population of Drosophila simulans. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inferring uncertainty from interval estimates: Effects of alpha level and numeracy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luke F. Rinne

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Interval estimates are commonly used to descriptively communicate the degree of uncertainty in numerical values. Conventionally, low alpha levels (e.g., .05 ensure a high probability of capturing the target value between interval endpoints. Here, we test whether alpha levels and individual differences in numeracy influence distributional inferences. In the reported experiment, participants received prediction intervals for fictitious towns' annual rainfall totals (assuming approximately normal distributions. Then, participants estimated probabilities that future totals would be captured within varying margins about the mean, indicating the approximate shapes of their inferred probability distributions. Results showed that low alpha levels (vs. moderate levels; e.g., .25 more frequently led to inferences of over-dispersed approximately normal distributions or approximately uniform distributions, reducing estimate accuracy. Highly numerate participants made more accurate estimates overall, but were more prone to inferring approximately uniform distributions. These findings have important implications for presenting interval estimates to various audiences.

Processing inferences at the semantics/pragmatics frontier: disjunctions and free choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Chemla, Emmanuel; Bott, Lewis

2014-03-01

Linguistic inferences have traditionally been studied and categorized in several categories, such as entailments, implicatures or presuppositions. This typology is mostly based on traditional linguistic means, such as introspective judgments about phrases occurring in different constructions, in different conversational contexts. More recently, the processing properties of these inferences have also been studied (see, e.g., recent work showing that scalar implicatures is a costly phenomenon). Our focus is on free choice permission, a phenomenon by which conjunctive inferences are unexpectedly added to disjunctive sentences. For instance, a sentence such as "Mary is allowed to eat an ice-cream or a cake" is normally understood as granting permission both for eating an ice-cream and for eating a cake. We provide data from four processing studies, which show that, contrary to arguments coming from the theoretical literature, free choice inferences are different from scalar implicatures. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inferring facts from fiction: reading correct and incorrect information affects memory for related information.

Science.gov (United States)

Butler, Andrew C; Dennis, Nancy A; Marsh, Elizabeth J

2012-07-01

People can acquire both true and false knowledge about the world from fictional stories. The present study explored whether the benefits and costs of learning about the world from fictional stories extend beyond memory for directly stated pieces of information. Of interest was whether readers would use correct and incorrect story references to make deductive inferences about related information in the story, and then integrate those inferences into their knowledge bases. Participants read stories containing correct, neutral, and misleading references to facts about the world; each reference could be combined with another reference that occurred in a later sentence to make a deductive inference. Later they answered general knowledge questions that tested for these deductive inferences. The results showed that participants generated and retained the deductive inferences regardless of whether the inferences were consistent or inconsistent with world knowledge, and irrespective of whether the references were placed consecutively in the text or separated by many sentences. Readers learn more than what is directly stated in stories; they use references to the real world to make both correct and incorrect inferences that are integrated into their knowledge bases.

Numerical Simulation on Zonal Disintegration in Deep Surrounding Rock Mass

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuguang Chen

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Zonal disintegration have been discovered in many underground tunnels with the increasing of embedded depth. The formation mechanism of such phenomenon is difficult to explain under the framework of traditional rock mechanics, and the fractured shape and forming conditions are unclear. The numerical simulation was carried out to research the generating condition and forming process of zonal disintegration. Via comparing the results with the geomechanical model test, the zonal disintegration phenomenon was confirmed and its mechanism is revealed. It is found to be the result of circular fracture which develops within surrounding rock mass under the high geostress. The fractured shape of zonal disintegration was determined, and the radii of the fractured zones were found to fulfill the relationship of geometric progression. The numerical results were in accordance with the model test findings. The mechanism of the zonal disintegration was revealed by theoretical analysis based on fracture mechanics. The fractured zones are reportedly circular and concentric to the cavern. Each fracture zone ruptured at the elastic-plastic boundary of the surrounding rocks and then coalesced into the circular form. The geometric progression ratio was found to be related to the mechanical parameters and the ground stress of the surrounding rocks.

Numerical simulation on zonal disintegration in deep surrounding rock mass.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xuguang; Wang, Yuan; Mei, Yu; Zhang, Xin

2014-01-01

Zonal disintegration have been discovered in many underground tunnels with the increasing of embedded depth. The formation mechanism of such phenomenon is difficult to explain under the framework of traditional rock mechanics, and the fractured shape and forming conditions are unclear. The numerical simulation was carried out to research the generating condition and forming process of zonal disintegration. Via comparing the results with the geomechanical model test, the zonal disintegration phenomenon was confirmed and its mechanism is revealed. It is found to be the result of circular fracture which develops within surrounding rock mass under the high geostress. The fractured shape of zonal disintegration was determined, and the radii of the fractured zones were found to fulfill the relationship of geometric progression. The numerical results were in accordance with the model test findings. The mechanism of the zonal disintegration was revealed by theoretical analysis based on fracture mechanics. The fractured zones are reportedly circular and concentric to the cavern. Each fracture zone ruptured at the elastic-plastic boundary of the surrounding rocks and then coalesced into the circular form. The geometric progression ratio was found to be related to the mechanical parameters and the ground stress of the surrounding rocks.

Tissue reaction surrounding miniscrews for orthodontic anchorage: An animal experiment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephanie Shih-Hsuan Chen

2012-03-01

Results and conclusions: (1 Tissue surrounding roots damaged by a miniscrew showed a significant inflammatory response. (2 Root resorption was occasionally observed after 3 weeks following insertion of a miniscrew even if the miniscrew was not in direct contact with the root. (3 Root repair was noted with a cementoblast lining along the resorption surface at as early as 3 weeks after miniscrew insertion. Alveolar bone filled in the lesion when the root damage was large so that the contour of the alveolar bone followed that of the damaged root, with the width of the periodontal ligament space being maintained. (4 Stable miniscrews were mainly those which did not contact adjacent roots, and for which the surrounding tissue showed only a small inflammatory response with some extent of direct bone contact around the miniscrew. On the contrary, most of the failed miniscrews were those which had direct contact with adjacent roots, and which exhibited severe tissue inflammation and were covered by thick layers of soft tissue. Failure was detected 3 weeks after insertion. Surprisingly, the epithelial lining surrounding the miniscrews might not have spontaneously resolved 6 weeks after screw removal. Persistent infection in the sinus tract was noted, and this would require attention.

Evaluating the effect of the space surrounding the condenser of a household refrigerator

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bassiouny, Ramadan [Dept. of Mech. Power Eng. and Energy, Faculty of Engineering, Minia University, Minia 61111 (Egypt)

2009-11-15

The paper presents an analytical and computational modeling of the effect of the space surrounding the condenser of a household refrigerator on the rejected heat. The driving force for rejecting the heat carried by the refrigerant from the interior of a refrigerator is the temperature difference between the condenser outer surface and surrounding air. The variation of this difference, because of having an insufficient space, increasing the room air temperature, or blocking this space, is of interest to quantify its effect The results showed that having an enough surrounding space width (s > 200 mm) leads to a decrease in the temperature of the air flowing vertically around the condenser coil. Accordingly, this would significantly increase the amount of heat rejected. Moreover, blocking this space retards the buoyant flow up the condenser surface, and hence increases the air temperature around the condenser. This would also decrease the heat rejected from the condenser. Predicted temperature contours are displayed to visualize the air plumes' variation surrounding the condenser in all cases. (author)

Emotional inferences by pragmatics

OpenAIRE

Iza-Miqueleiz, Mauricio

2017-01-01

It has for long been taken for granted that, along the course of reading a text, world knowledge is often required in order to establish coherent links between sentences (McKoon & Ratcliff 1992, Iza & Ezquerro 2000). The content grasped from a text turns out to be strongly dependent upon the reader’s additional knowledge that allows a coherent interpretation of the text as a whole. The world knowledge directing the inference may be of distinctive nature. Gygax et al. (2007) showed that m...

Intelligent machines in the twenty-first century: foundations of inference and inquiry.

Science.gov (United States)

Knuth, Kevin H

2003-12-15

The last century saw the application of Boolean algebra to the construction of computing machines, which work by applying logical transformations to information contained in their memory. The development of information theory and the generalization of Boolean algebra to Bayesian inference have enabled these computing machines, in the last quarter of the twentieth century, to be endowed with the ability to learn by making inferences from data. This revolution is just beginning as new computational techniques continue to make difficult problems more accessible. Recent advances in our understanding of the foundations of probability theory have revealed implications for areas other than logic. Of relevance to intelligent machines, we recently identified the algebra of questions as the free distributive algebra, which will now allow us to work with questions in a way analogous to that which Boolean algebra enables us to work with logical statements. In this paper, we examine the foundations of inference and inquiry. We begin with a history of inferential reasoning, highlighting key concepts that have led to the automation of inference in modern machine-learning systems. We then discuss the foundations of inference in more detail using a modern viewpoint that relies on the mathematics of partially ordered sets and the scaffolding of lattice theory. This new viewpoint allows us to develop the logic of inquiry and introduce a measure describing the relevance of a proposed question to an unresolved issue. Last, we will demonstrate the automation of inference, and discuss how this new logic of inquiry will enable intelligent machines to ask questions. Automation of both inference and inquiry promises to allow robots to perform science in the far reaches of our solar system and in other star systems by enabling them not only to make inferences from data, but also to decide which question to ask, which experiment to perform, or which measurement to take given what they have

Towards Bayesian Inference of the Fast-Ion Distribution Function

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stagner, L.; Heidbrink, W.W.; Salewski, Mirko

2012-01-01

sensitivity of the measurements are incorporated into Bayesian likelihood probabilities, while prior probabilities enforce physical constraints. As an initial step, this poster uses Bayesian statistics to infer the DIII-D electron density profile from multiple diagnostic measurements. Likelihood functions....... However, when theory and experiment disagree (for one or more diagnostics), it is unclear how to proceed. Bayesian statistics provides a framework to infer the DF, quantify errors, and reconcile discrepant diagnostic measurements. Diagnostic errors and ``weight functions" that describe the phase space...

IERIAS: inference engine for reactor accident diagnostic system using knowledge engineering technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yokobayashi, Masao; Yoshida, Kazuo; Kohsaka, Atsuo; Yamamoto, Minoru.

1984-11-01

This report describes an inference engine IERIAS which has been devoloped for a diagnostic system to identify the cause and type of an abnormal transient of a reactor plant. This system using knowledge engineering technique consists of a knowledge base and an inference engine. The inference engine IERIAS is designed so as to treat time-varying data of a plant. The major features of IERIAS are ; (1) histroy of transients can be treated, (2) knowledge base can be divided into some knowledge units, (3) program language UTILISP is used which is suitable for symbolic data manipulation. Inference was made using IERIAS with a knowledge base which was created from simulated results of various transients by a PWR plant simulator. The results showed a good applicability of IERIAS for reactor diagnosis. (author)

Inference in partially identified models with many moment inequalities using Lasso

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bugni, Federico A.; Caner, Mehmet; Kock, Anders Bredahl

This paper considers the problem of inference in a partially identified moment (in)equality model with possibly many moment inequalities. Our contribution is to propose a novel two-step new inference method based on the combination of two ideas. On the one hand, our test statistic and critical...

Assessing children's inference generation: what do tests of reading comprehension measure?

Science.gov (United States)

Bowyer-Crane, Claudine; Snowling, Margaret J

2005-06-01

Previous research suggests that children with specific comprehension difficulties have problems with the generation of inferences. This raises important questions as to whether poor comprehenders have poor comprehension skills generally, or whether their problems are confined to specific inference types. The main aims of the study were (a) using two commonly used tests of reading comprehension to classify the questions requiring the generation of inferences, and (b) to investigate the relative performance of skilled and less-skilled comprehenders on questions tapping different inference types. The performance of 10 poor comprehenders (mean age 110.06 months) was compared with the performance of 10 normal readers (mean age 112.78 months) on two tests of reading comprehension. A qualitative analysis of the NARA II (form 1) and the WORD comprehension subtest was carried out. Participants were then administered the NARA II, WORD comprehension subtest and a test of non-word reading. The NARA II was heavily reliant on the generation of knowledge-based inferences, while the WORD comprehension subtest was biased towards the retention of literal information. Children identified by the NARA II as having comprehension difficulties performed in the normal range on the WORD comprehension subtests. Further, children with comprehension difficulties performed poorly on questions requiring the generation of knowledge-based and elaborative inferences. However, they were able to answer questions requiring attention to literal information or use of cohesive devices at a level comparable to normal readers. Different reading tests tap different types of inferencing skills. Lessskilled comprehenders have particular difficulty applying real-world knowledge to a text during reading, and this has implications for the formulation of effective intervention strategies.

Generating inferences from knowledge structures based on general automata

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koenig, E C

1983-01-01

The author shows that the model for knowledge structures for computers based on general automata accommodates procedures for establishing inferences. Algorithms are presented which generate inferences as output of a computer when its sentence input names appropriate knowledge elements contained in an associated knowledge structure already stored in the memory of the computer. The inferences are found to have either a single graph tuple or more than one graph tuple of associated knowledge. Six algorithms pertain to a single graph tuple and a seventh pertains to more than one graph tuple of associated knowledge. A named term is either the automaton, environment, auxiliary receptor, principal receptor, auxiliary effector, or principal effector. The algorithm pertaining to more than one graph tuple requires that the input sentence names the automaton, transformation response, and environment of one of the tuples of associated knowledge in a sequence of tuples. Interaction with the computer may be either in a conversation or examination mode. The algorithms are illustrated by an example. 13 references.

Evidence Accumulation and Change Rate Inference in Dynamic Environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Radillo, Adrian E; Veliz-Cuba, Alan; Josić, Krešimir; Kilpatrick, Zachary P

2017-06-01

In a constantly changing world, animals must account for environmental volatility when making decisions. To appropriately discount older, irrelevant information, they need to learn the rate at which the environment changes. We develop an ideal observer model capable of inferring the present state of the environment along with its rate of change. Key to this computation is an update of the posterior probability of all possible change point counts. This computation can be challenging, as the number of possibilities grows rapidly with time. However, we show how the computations can be simplified in the continuum limit by a moment closure approximation. The resulting low-dimensional system can be used to infer the environmental state and change rate with accuracy comparable to the ideal observer. The approximate computations can be performed by a neural network model via a rate-correlation-based plasticity rule. We thus show how optimal observers accumulate evidence in changing environments and map this computation to reduced models that perform inference using plausible neural mechanisms.

More Gamma More Predictions: Gamma-Synchronization as a Key Mechanism for Efficient Integration of Classical Receptive Field Inputs with Surround Predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Vinck, Martin; Bosman, Conrado A.

2016-01-01

During visual stimulation, neurons in visual cortex often exhibit rhythmic and synchronous firing in the gamma-frequency (30–90 Hz) band. Whether this phenomenon plays a functional role during visual processing is not fully clear and remains heavily debated. In this article, we explore the function of gamma-synchronization in the context of predictive and efficient coding theories. These theories hold that sensory neurons utilize the statistical regularities in the natural world in order to improve the efficiency of the neural code, and to optimize the inference of the stimulus causes of the sensory data. In visual cortex, this relies on the integration of classical receptive field (CRF) data with predictions from the surround. Here we outline two main hypotheses about gamma-synchronization in visual cortex. First, we hypothesize that the precision of gamma-synchronization reflects the extent to which CRF data can be accurately predicted by the surround. Second, we hypothesize that different cortical columns synchronize to the extent that they accurately predict each other’s CRF visual input. We argue that these two hypotheses can account for a large number of empirical observations made on the stimulus dependencies of gamma-synchronization. Furthermore, we show that they are consistent with the known laminar dependencies of gamma-synchronization and the spatial profile of intercolumnar gamma-synchronization, as well as the dependence of gamma-synchronization on experience and development. Based on our two main hypotheses, we outline two additional hypotheses. First, we hypothesize that the precision of gamma-synchronization shows, in general, a negative dependence on RF size. In support, we review evidence showing that gamma-synchronization decreases in strength along the visual hierarchy, and tends to be more prominent in species with small V1 RFs. Second, we hypothesize that gamma-synchronized network dynamics facilitate the emergence of spiking output that

An emergent approach to analogical inference

Science.gov (United States)

Thibodeau, Paul H.; Flusberg, Stephen J.; Glick, Jeremy J.; Sternberg, Daniel A.

2013-03-01

In recent years, a growing number of researchers have proposed that analogy is a core component of human cognition. According to the dominant theoretical viewpoint, analogical reasoning requires a specific suite of cognitive machinery, including explicitly coded symbolic representations and a mapping or binding mechanism that operates over these representations. Here we offer an alternative approach: we find that analogical inference can emerge naturally and spontaneously from a relatively simple, error-driven learning mechanism without the need to posit any additional analogy-specific machinery. The results also parallel findings from the developmental literature on analogy, demonstrating a shift from an initial reliance on surface feature similarity to the use of relational similarity later in training. Variants of the model allow us to consider and rule out alternative accounts of its performance. We conclude by discussing how these findings can potentially refine our understanding of the processes that are required to perform analogical inference.

Dopamine, reward learning, and active inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas eFitzgerald

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Temporal difference learning models propose phasic dopamine signalling encodes reward prediction errors that drive learning. This is supported by studies where optogenetic stimulation of dopamine neurons can stand in lieu of actual reward. Nevertheless, a large body of data also shows that dopamine is not necessary for learning, and that dopamine depletion primarily affects task performance. We offer a resolution to this paradox based on an hypothesis that dopamine encodes the precision of beliefs about alternative actions, and thus controls the outcome-sensitivity of behaviour. We extend an active inference scheme for solving Markov decision processes to include learning, and show that simulated dopamine dynamics strongly resemble those actually observed during instrumental conditioning. Furthermore, simulated dopamine depletion impairs performance but spares learning, while simulated excitation of dopamine neurons drives reward learning, through aberrant inference about outcome states. Our formal approach provides a novel and parsimonious reconciliation of apparently divergent experimental findings.

Kernel learning at the first level of inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Cawley, Gavin C; Talbot, Nicola L C

2014-05-01

Kernel learning methods, whether Bayesian or frequentist, typically involve multiple levels of inference, with the coefficients of the kernel expansion being determined at the first level and the kernel and regularisation parameters carefully tuned at the second level, a process known as model selection. Model selection for kernel machines is commonly performed via optimisation of a suitable model selection criterion, often based on cross-validation or theoretical performance bounds. However, if there are a large number of kernel parameters, as for instance in the case of automatic relevance determination (ARD), there is a substantial risk of over-fitting the model selection criterion, resulting in poor generalisation performance. In this paper we investigate the possibility of learning the kernel, for the Least-Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) classifier, at the first level of inference, i.e. parameter optimisation. The kernel parameters and the coefficients of the kernel expansion are jointly optimised at the first level of inference, minimising a training criterion with an additional regularisation term acting on the kernel parameters. The key advantage of this approach is that the values of only two regularisation parameters need be determined in model selection, substantially alleviating the problem of over-fitting the model selection criterion. The benefits of this approach are demonstrated using a suite of synthetic and real-world binary classification benchmark problems, where kernel learning at the first level of inference is shown to be statistically superior to the conventional approach, improves on our previous work (Cawley and Talbot, 2007) and is competitive with Multiple Kernel Learning approaches, but with reduced computational expense. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PhySIC_IST: cleaning source trees to infer more informative supertrees.

Science.gov (United States)

Scornavacca, Celine; Berry, Vincent; Lefort, Vincent; Douzery, Emmanuel J P; Ranwez, Vincent

2008-10-04

Supertree methods combine phylogenies with overlapping sets of taxa into a larger one. Topological conflicts frequently arise among source trees for methodological or biological reasons, such as long branch attraction, lateral gene transfers, gene duplication/loss or deep gene coalescence. When topological conflicts occur among source trees, liberal methods infer supertrees containing the most frequent alternative, while veto methods infer supertrees not contradicting any source tree, i.e. discard all conflicting resolutions. When the source trees host a significant number of topological conflicts or have a small taxon overlap, supertree methods of both kinds can propose poorly resolved, hence uninformative, supertrees. To overcome this problem, we propose to infer non-plenary supertrees, i.e. supertrees that do not necessarily contain all the taxa present in the source trees, discarding those whose position greatly differs among source trees or for which insufficient information is provided. We detail a variant of the PhySIC veto method called PhySIC_IST that can infer non-plenary supertrees. PhySIC_IST aims at inferring supertrees that satisfy the same appealing theoretical properties as with PhySIC, while being as informative as possible under this constraint. The informativeness of a supertree is estimated using a variation of the CIC (Cladistic Information Content) criterion, that takes into account both the presence of multifurcations and the absence of some taxa. Additionally, we propose a statistical preprocessing step called STC (Source Trees Correction) to correct the source trees prior to the supertree inference. STC is a liberal step that removes the parts of each source tree that significantly conflict with other source trees. Combining STC with a veto method allows an explicit trade-off between veto and liberal approaches, tuned by a single parameter.Performing large-scale simulations, we observe that STC+PhySIC_IST infers much more informative

Inference of gene regulatory networks from time series by Tsallis entropy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

de Oliveira Evaldo A

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The inference of gene regulatory networks (GRNs from large-scale expression profiles is one of the most challenging problems of Systems Biology nowadays. Many techniques and models have been proposed for this task. However, it is not generally possible to recover the original topology with great accuracy, mainly due to the short time series data in face of the high complexity of the networks and the intrinsic noise of the expression measurements. In order to improve the accuracy of GRNs inference methods based on entropy (mutual information, a new criterion function is here proposed. Results In this paper we introduce the use of generalized entropy proposed by Tsallis, for the inference of GRNs from time series expression profiles. The inference process is based on a feature selection approach and the conditional entropy is applied as criterion function. In order to assess the proposed methodology, the algorithm is applied to recover the network topology from temporal expressions generated by an artificial gene network (AGN model as well as from the DREAM challenge. The adopted AGN is based on theoretical models of complex networks and its gene transference function is obtained from random drawing on the set of possible Boolean functions, thus creating its dynamics. On the other hand, DREAM time series data presents variation of network size and its topologies are based on real networks. The dynamics are generated by continuous differential equations with noise and perturbation. By adopting both data sources, it is possible to estimate the average quality of the inference with respect to different network topologies, transfer functions and network sizes. Conclusions A remarkable improvement of accuracy was observed in the experimental results by reducing the number of false connections in the inferred topology by the non-Shannon entropy. The obtained best free parameter of the Tsallis entropy was on average in the range 2.5 �

A neuro-fuzzy inference system for sensor monitoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Na, Man Gyun

2001-01-01

A neuro-fuzzy inference system combined with the wavelet denoising, PCA (principal component analysis) and SPRT (sequential probability ratio test) methods has been developed to monitor the relevant sensor using the information of other sensors. The paramters of the neuro-fuzzy inference system which estimates the relevant sensor signal are optimized by a genetic algorithm and a least-squares algorithm. The wavelet denoising technique was applied to remove noise components in input signals into the neuro-fuzzy system. By reducing the dimension of an input space into the neuro-fuzzy system without losing a significant amount of information, the PCA was used to reduce the time necessary to train the neuro-fuzzy system, simplify the structure of the neuro-fuzzy inference system and also, make easy the selection of the input signals into the neuro-fuzzy system. By using the residual signals between the estimated signals and the measured signals, the SPRT is applied to detect whether the sensors are degraded or not. The proposed sensor-monitoring algorithm was verified through applications to the pressurizer water level, the pressurizer pressure, and the hot-leg temperature sensors in pressurized water reactors

Bayesian inference on genetic merit under uncertain paternity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tempelman Robert J

2003-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract A hierarchical animal model was developed for inference on genetic merit of livestock with uncertain paternity. Fully conditional posterior distributions for fixed and genetic effects, variance components, sire assignments and their probabilities are derived to facilitate a Bayesian inference strategy using MCMC methods. We compared this model to a model based on the Henderson average numerator relationship (ANRM in a simulation study with 10 replicated datasets generated for each of two traits. Trait 1 had a medium heritability (h2 for each of direct and maternal genetic effects whereas Trait 2 had a high h2 attributable only to direct effects. The average posterior probabilities inferred on the true sire were between 1 and 10% larger than the corresponding priors (the inverse of the number of candidate sires in a mating pasture for Trait 1 and between 4 and 13% larger than the corresponding priors for Trait 2. The predicted additive and maternal genetic effects were very similar using both models; however, model choice criteria (Pseudo Bayes Factor and Deviance Information Criterion decisively favored the proposed hierarchical model over the ANRM model.

Grouping preprocess for haplotype inference from SNP and CNV data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shindo, Hiroyuki; Chigira, Hiroshi; Nagaoka, Tomoyo; Inoue, Masato; Kamatani, Naoyuki

2009-01-01

The method of statistical haplotype inference is an indispensable technique in the field of medical science. The authors previously reported Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium-based haplotype inference that could manage single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data. We recently extended the method to cover copy number variation (CNV) data. Haplotype inference from mixed data is important because SNPs and CNVs are occasionally in linkage disequilibrium. The idea underlying the proposed method is simple, but the algorithm for it needs to be quite elaborate to reduce the calculation cost. Consequently, we have focused on the details on the algorithm in this study. Although the main advantage of the method is accuracy, in that it does not use any approximation, its main disadvantage is still the calculation cost, which is sometimes intractable for large data sets with missing values.

Grouping preprocess for haplotype inference from SNP and CNV data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shindo, Hiroyuki; Chigira, Hiroshi; Nagaoka, Tomoyo; Inoue, Masato [Department of Electrical Engineering and Bioscience, School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Waseda University, 3-4-1, Okubo, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8555 (Japan); Kamatani, Naoyuki, E-mail: masato.inoue@eb.waseda.ac.j [Institute of Rheumatology, Tokyo Women' s Medical University, 10-22, Kawada-cho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 162-0054 (Japan)

2009-12-01

The method of statistical haplotype inference is an indispensable technique in the field of medical science. The authors previously reported Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium-based haplotype inference that could manage single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data. We recently extended the method to cover copy number variation (CNV) data. Haplotype inference from mixed data is important because SNPs and CNVs are occasionally in linkage disequilibrium. The idea underlying the proposed method is simple, but the algorithm for it needs to be quite elaborate to reduce the calculation cost. Consequently, we have focused on the details on the algorithm in this study. Although the main advantage of the method is accuracy, in that it does not use any approximation, its main disadvantage is still the calculation cost, which is sometimes intractable for large data sets with missing values.

Energy buildup factor for ICRU 33 sphere surrounded by an air layer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ochiana, G.; Oncescu, M.

1994-01-01

The buildup factor due to the air surrounding an ICRU 33 sphere is a desirable quantity in the assessment of the air kerma rate for external exposure to gamma emitters distributed on the ground. A Monte Carlo algorithm has been developed to perform the photon transport calculation within the air layer around the sphere. The energy buildup factor due to the air layer has been calculated for an extended radioactive source - the contaminated ground. The transport of photons within the air layer surrounding a sphere -ICRU 33 phantom - is done by calculating separately the energies deposited by photons into the sphere when this one is in vacuum and when it is surrounded by the air, respectively. The results are given for an air layer of 100 m thickness and photon energy between 0.01 and 3.0 MeV. (Author) 1 Fig., 1 Tab., 9 Refs

On Quantum Statistical Inference, II

OpenAIRE

Barndorff-Nielsen, O. E.; Gill, R. D.; Jupp, P. E.

2003-01-01

Interest in problems of statistical inference connected to measurements of quantum systems has recently increased substantially, in step with dramatic new developments in experimental techniques for studying small quantum systems. Furthermore, theoretical developments in the theory of quantum measurements have brought the basic mathematical framework for the probability calculations much closer to that of classical probability theory. The present paper reviews this field and proposes and inte...

Identifikasi Gangguan Neurologis Menggunakan Metode Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jani Kusanti

2015-07-01

Abstract             The use of Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS methods in the process of identifying one of neurological disorders in the head, known in medical terms ischemic stroke from the ct scan of the head in order to identify the location of ischemic stroke. The steps are performed in the extraction process of identifying, among others, the image of the ct scan of the head by using a histogram. Enhanced image of the intensity histogram image results using Otsu threshold to obtain results pixels rated 1 related to the object while pixel rated 0 associated with the measurement background. The result used for image clustering process, to process image clusters used fuzzy c-mean (FCM clustering result is a row of the cluster center, the results of the data used to construct a fuzzy inference system (FIS. Fuzzy inference system applied is fuzzy inference model of Takagi-Sugeno-Kang. In this study ANFIS is used to optimize the results of the determination of the location of the blockage ischemic stroke. Used recursive least squares estimator (RLSE for learning. RMSE results obtained in the training process of 0.0432053, while in the process of generated test accuracy rate of 98.66%   Keywords— Stroke Ischemik, Global threshold, Fuzzy Inference System model Sugeno, ANFIS, RMSE

F-OWL: An Inference Engine for Semantic Web

Science.gov (United States)

Zou, Youyong; Finin, Tim; Chen, Harry

2004-01-01

Understanding and using the data and knowledge encoded in semantic web documents requires an inference engine. F-OWL is an inference engine for the semantic web language OWL language based on F-logic, an approach to defining frame-based systems in logic. F-OWL is implemented using XSB and Flora-2 and takes full advantage of their features. We describe how F-OWL computes ontology entailment and compare it with other description logic based approaches. We also describe TAGA, a trading agent environment that we have used as a test bed for F-OWL and to explore how multiagent systems can use semantic web concepts and technology.

Inference with constrained hidden Markov models in PRISM

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, Henning; Have, Christian Theil; Lassen, Ole Torp

2010-01-01

A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a common statistical model which is widely used for analysis of biological sequence data and other sequential phenomena. In the present paper we show how HMMs can be extended with side-constraints and present constraint solving techniques for efficient inference. De......_different are integrated. We experimentally validate our approach on the biologically motivated problem of global pairwise alignment.......A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a common statistical model which is widely used for analysis of biological sequence data and other sequential phenomena. In the present paper we show how HMMs can be extended with side-constraints and present constraint solving techniques for efficient inference...

AD-LIBS: inferring ancestry across hybrid genomes using low-coverage sequence data.

Science.gov (United States)

Schaefer, Nathan K; Shapiro, Beth; Green, Richard E

2017-04-04

Inferring the ancestry of each region of admixed individuals' genomes is useful in studies ranging from disease gene mapping to speciation genetics. Current methods require high-coverage genotype data and phased reference panels, and are therefore inappropriate for many data sets. We present a software application, AD-LIBS, that uses a hidden Markov model to infer ancestry across hybrid genomes without requiring variant calling or phasing. This approach is useful for non-model organisms and in cases of low-coverage data, such as ancient DNA. We demonstrate the utility of AD-LIBS with synthetic data. We then use AD-LIBS to infer ancestry in two published data sets: European human genomes with Neanderthal ancestry and brown bear genomes with polar bear ancestry. AD-LIBS correctly infers 87-91% of ancestry in simulations and produces ancestry maps that agree with published results and global ancestry estimates in humans. In brown bears, we find more polar bear ancestry than has been published previously, using both AD-LIBS and an existing software application for local ancestry inference, HAPMIX. We validate AD-LIBS polar bear ancestry maps by recovering a geographic signal within bears that mirrors what is seen in SNP data. Finally, we demonstrate that AD-LIBS is more effective than HAPMIX at inferring ancestry when preexisting phased reference data are unavailable and genomes are sequenced to low coverage. AD-LIBS is an effective tool for ancestry inference that can be used even when few individuals are available for comparison or when genomes are sequenced to low coverage. AD-LIBS is therefore likely to be useful in studies of non-model or ancient organisms that lack large amounts of genomic DNA. AD-LIBS can therefore expand the range of studies in which admixture mapping is a viable tool.

Cultural effects on the association between election outcomes and face-based trait inferences

Science.gov (United States)

Adolphs, Ralph; Alvarez, R. Michael

2017-01-01

How competent a politician looks, as assessed in the laboratory, is correlated with whether the politician wins in real elections. This finding has led many to investigate whether the association between candidate appearances and election outcomes transcends cultures. However, these studies have largely focused on European countries and Caucasian candidates. To the best of our knowledge, there are only four cross-cultural studies that have directly investigated how face-based trait inferences correlate with election outcomes across Caucasian and Asian cultures. These prior studies have provided some initial evidence regarding cultural differences, but methodological problems and inconsistent findings have complicated our understanding of how culture mediates the effects of candidate appearances on election outcomes. Additionally, these four past studies have focused on positive traits, with a relative neglect of negative traits, resulting in an incomplete picture of how culture may impact a broader range of trait inferences. To study Caucasian-Asian cultural effects with a more balanced experimental design, and to explore a more complete profile of traits, here we compared how Caucasian and Korean participants’ inferences of positive and negative traits correlated with U.S. and Korean election outcomes. Contrary to previous reports, we found that inferences of competence (made by participants from both cultures) correlated with both U.S. and Korean election outcomes. Inferences of open-mindedness and threat, two traits neglected in previous cross-cultural studies, were correlated with Korean but not U.S. election outcomes. This differential effect was found in trait judgments made by both Caucasian and Korean participants. Interestingly, the faster the participants made face-based trait inferences, the more strongly those inferences were correlated with real election outcomes. These findings provide new insights into cultural effects and the difficult question of

Cultural effects on the association between election outcomes and face-based trait inferences.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Chujun; Adolphs, Ralph; Alvarez, R Michael

2017-01-01

How competent a politician looks, as assessed in the laboratory, is correlated with whether the politician wins in real elections. This finding has led many to investigate whether the association between candidate appearances and election outcomes transcends cultures. However, these studies have largely focused on European countries and Caucasian candidates. To the best of our knowledge, there are only four cross-cultural studies that have directly investigated how face-based trait inferences correlate with election outcomes across Caucasian and Asian cultures. These prior studies have provided some initial evidence regarding cultural differences, but methodological problems and inconsistent findings have complicated our understanding of how culture mediates the effects of candidate appearances on election outcomes. Additionally, these four past studies have focused on positive traits, with a relative neglect of negative traits, resulting in an incomplete picture of how culture may impact a broader range of trait inferences. To study Caucasian-Asian cultural effects with a more balanced experimental design, and to explore a more complete profile of traits, here we compared how Caucasian and Korean participants' inferences of positive and negative traits correlated with U.S. and Korean election outcomes. Contrary to previous reports, we found that inferences of competence (made by participants from both cultures) correlated with both U.S. and Korean election outcomes. Inferences of open-mindedness and threat, two traits neglected in previous cross-cultural studies, were correlated with Korean but not U.S. election outcomes. This differential effect was found in trait judgments made by both Caucasian and Korean participants. Interestingly, the faster the participants made face-based trait inferences, the more strongly those inferences were correlated with real election outcomes. These findings provide new insights into cultural effects and the difficult question of

Inference of population splits and mixtures from genome-wide allele frequency data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joseph K Pickrell

Full Text Available Many aspects of the historical relationships between populations in a species are reflected in genetic data. Inferring these relationships from genetic data, however, remains a challenging task. In this paper, we present a statistical model for inferring the patterns of population splits and mixtures in multiple populations. In our model, the sampled populations in a species are related to their common ancestor through a graph of ancestral populations. Using genome-wide allele frequency data and a Gaussian approximation to genetic drift, we infer the structure of this graph. We applied this method to a set of 55 human populations and a set of 82 dog breeds and wild canids. In both species, we show that a simple bifurcating tree does not fully describe the data; in contrast, we infer many migration events. While some of the migration events that we find have been detected previously, many have not. For example, in the human data, we infer that Cambodians trace approximately 16% of their ancestry to a population ancestral to other extant East Asian populations. In the dog data, we infer that both the boxer and basenji trace a considerable fraction of their ancestry (9% and 25%, respectively to wolves subsequent to domestication and that East Asian toy breeds (the Shih Tzu and the Pekingese result from admixture between modern toy breeds and "ancient" Asian breeds. Software implementing the model described here, called TreeMix, is available at http://treemix.googlecode.com.

ShinyKGode: an Interactive Application for ODE Parameter Inference Using Gradient Matching.

Science.gov (United States)

Wandy, Joe; Niu, Mu; Giurghita, Diana; Daly, Rónán; Rogers, Simon; Husmeier, Dirk

2018-02-27

Mathematical modelling based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is widely used to describe the dynamics of biological systems, particularly in systems and pathway biology. Often the kinetic parameters of these ODE systems are unknown and have to be inferred from the data. Approximate parameter inference methods based on gradient matching (which do not require performing computationally expensive numerical integration of the ODEs) have been getting popular in recent years, but many implementations are difficult to run without expert knowledge. Here we introduce ShinyKGode, an interactive web application to perform fast parameter inference on ODEs using gradient matching. ShinyKGode can be used to infer ODE parameters on simulated and observed data using gradient matching. Users can easily load their own models in Systems Biology Markup Language format, and a set of pre-defined ODE benchmark models are provided in the application. Inferred parameters are visualised alongside diagnostic plots to assess convergence. The R package for ShinyKGode can be installed through the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN). Installation instructions, as well as tutorial videos and source code are available at https://joewandy.github.io/shinyKGode. dirk.husmeier@glasgow.ac.uk. None.

Online Emotional Inferences in Written and Auditory Texts: A Study with Children and Adults

Science.gov (United States)

Diergarten, Anna Katharina; Nieding, Gerhild

2016-01-01

Emotional inferences are conclusions that a reader draws about the emotional state of a story's protagonist. In this study, we examined whether children and adults draw emotional inferences while reading short stories or listening to an aural presentation of short stories. We used an online method that assesses inferences during reading with a…

The influence of the surrounding gas on drop impact onto a wet substrate

Science.gov (United States)

Deegan, Robert; Zhang, Li; Toole, Jameson

2011-11-01

The impact of a droplet with a wet or solid substrate creates a spray of secondary droplets. The effect of the surrounding gas on this process was widely neglected prior to the work of Xu, Zhang, & Nagel which showed that lowering the gas pressure suppresses splashing for impact with a dry solid substrate. Here we present the results of our experimental investigation of the effect of the surrounding gas on the evolution of splashes from a wet substrate. We varied the density and pressure of the surrounding gas. We find quantitative changes to the onset thresholds of splashing and on the size distribution of, but no qualitative changes. The effects are most pronounced on the evolution of the ejecta sheet.

Ontological Constraints in Children's Inductive Inferences: Evidence From a Comparison of Inferences Within Animals and Vehicles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrzej Tarlowski

2018-04-01

Full Text Available There is a lively debate concerning the role of conceptual and perceptual information in young children's inductive inferences. While most studies focus on the role of basic level categories in induction the present research contributes to the debate by asking whether children's inductions are guided by ontological constraints. Two studies use a novel inductive paradigm to test whether young children have an expectation that all animals share internal commonalities that do not extend to perceptually similar inanimates. The results show that children make category-consistent responses when asked to project an internal feature from an animal to either a dissimilar animal or a similar toy replica. However, the children do not have a universal preference for category-consistent responses in an analogous task involving vehicles and vehicle toy replicas. The results also show the role of context and individual factors in inferences. Children's early reliance on ontological commitments in induction cannot be explained by perceptual similarity or by children's sensitivity to the authenticity of objects.

Inference of a Nonlinear Stochastic Model of the Cardiorespiratory Interaction

Science.gov (United States)

Smelyanskiy, V. N.; Luchinsky, D. G.; Stefanovska, A.; McClintock, P. V.

2005-03-01

We reconstruct a nonlinear stochastic model of the cardiorespiratory interaction in terms of a set of polynomial basis functions representing the nonlinear force governing system oscillations. The strength and direction of coupling and noise intensity are simultaneously inferred from a univariate blood pressure signal. Our new inference technique does not require extensive global optimization, and it is applicable to a wide range of complex dynamical systems subject to noise.

Expectation propagation for large scale Bayesian inference of non-linear molecular networks from perturbation data.

Science.gov (United States)

Narimani, Zahra; Beigy, Hamid; Ahmad, Ashar; Masoudi-Nejad, Ali; Fröhlich, Holger

2017-01-01

Inferring the structure of molecular networks from time series protein or gene expression data provides valuable information about the complex biological processes of the cell. Causal network structure inference has been approached using different methods in the past. Most causal network inference techniques, such as Dynamic Bayesian Networks and ordinary differential equations, are limited by their computational complexity and thus make large scale inference infeasible. This is specifically true if a Bayesian framework is applied in order to deal with the unavoidable uncertainty about the correct model. We devise a novel Bayesian network reverse engineering approach using ordinary differential equations with the ability to include non-linearity. Besides modeling arbitrary, possibly combinatorial and time dependent perturbations with unknown targets, one of our main contributions is the use of Expectation Propagation, an algorithm for approximate Bayesian inference over large scale network structures in short computation time. We further explore the possibility of integrating prior knowledge into network inference. We evaluate the proposed model on DREAM4 and DREAM8 data and find it competitive against several state-of-the-art existing network inference methods.

Inferring the conservative causal core of gene regulatory networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emmert-Streib Frank

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Inferring gene regulatory networks from large-scale expression data is an important problem that received much attention in recent years. These networks have the potential to gain insights into causal molecular interactions of biological processes. Hence, from a methodological point of view, reliable estimation methods based on observational data are needed to approach this problem practically. Results In this paper, we introduce a novel gene regulatory network inference (GRNI algorithm, called C3NET. We compare C3NET with four well known methods, ARACNE, CLR, MRNET and RN, conducting in-depth numerical ensemble simulations and demonstrate also for biological expression data from E. coli that C3NET performs consistently better than the best known GRNI methods in the literature. In addition, it has also a low computational complexity. Since C3NET is based on estimates of mutual information values in conjunction with a maximization step, our numerical investigations demonstrate that our inference algorithm exploits causal structural information in the data efficiently. Conclusions For systems biology to succeed in the long run, it is of crucial importance to establish methods that extract large-scale gene networks from high-throughput data that reflect the underlying causal interactions among genes or gene products. Our method can contribute to this endeavor by demonstrating that an inference algorithm with a neat design permits not only a more intuitive and possibly biological interpretation of its working mechanism but can also result in superior results.

Inferring the conservative causal core of gene regulatory networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Altay, Gökmen; Emmert-Streib, Frank

2010-09-28

Inferring gene regulatory networks from large-scale expression data is an important problem that received much attention in recent years. These networks have the potential to gain insights into causal molecular interactions of biological processes. Hence, from a methodological point of view, reliable estimation methods based on observational data are needed to approach this problem practically. In this paper, we introduce a novel gene regulatory network inference (GRNI) algorithm, called C3NET. We compare C3NET with four well known methods, ARACNE, CLR, MRNET and RN, conducting in-depth numerical ensemble simulations and demonstrate also for biological expression data from E. coli that C3NET performs consistently better than the best known GRNI methods in the literature. In addition, it has also a low computational complexity. Since C3NET is based on estimates of mutual information values in conjunction with a maximization step, our numerical investigations demonstrate that our inference algorithm exploits causal structural information in the data efficiently. For systems biology to succeed in the long run, it is of crucial importance to establish methods that extract large-scale gene networks from high-throughput data that reflect the underlying causal interactions among genes or gene products. Our method can contribute to this endeavor by demonstrating that an inference algorithm with a neat design permits not only a more intuitive and possibly biological interpretation of its working mechanism but can also result in superior results.

Opportunity's Surroundings on Sol 1818 (Vertical)

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity used its navigation camera to take the images combined into this full-circle view of the rover's surroundings during the 1,818th Martian day, or sol, of Opportunity's surface mission (March 5, 2009). South is at the center; north at both ends. This view is presented as a vertical projection with geometric seam correction. North is at the top. The rover had driven 80.3 meters (263 feet) southward earlier on that sol. Tracks from the drive recede northward in this view. The terrain in this portion of Mars' Meridiani Planum region includes dark-toned sand ripples and lighter-toned bedrock.

Opportunity's Surroundings on Sol 1818 (Polar)

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity used its navigation camera to take the images combined into this full-circle view of the rover's surroundings during the 1,818th Martian day, or sol, of Opportunity's surface mission (March 5, 2009). South is at the center; north at both ends. This view is presented as a polar projection with geometric seam correction. North is at the top. The rover had driven 80.3 meters (263 feet) southward earlier on that sol. Tracks from the drive recede northward in this view. The terrain in this portion of Mars' Meridiani Planum region includes dark-toned sand ripples and lighter-toned bedrock.

Negativity and positivity effects in person perception and inference: Ability versus morality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Martijn, A.C.; Spears, R.; van der Pligt, J.; Jakobs, E.

1992-01-01

Examined, in 2 experiments involving 190 undergraduates, negativity and positivity effects in trait inferences and impression formation. In Exp 1, Ss made trait inferences of actors in different behavioral instances. Results support the prediction that negative behavior is more informative for

A grammar inference approach for predicting kinase specific phosphorylation sites.

Science.gov (United States)

Datta, Sutapa; Mukhopadhyay, Subhasis

2015-01-01

Kinase mediated phosphorylation site detection is the key mechanism of post translational mechanism that plays an important role in regulating various cellular processes and phenotypes. Many diseases, like cancer are related with the signaling defects which are associated with protein phosphorylation. Characterizing the protein kinases and their substrates enhances our ability to understand the mechanism of protein phosphorylation and extends our knowledge of signaling network; thereby helping us to treat such diseases. Experimental methods for predicting phosphorylation sites are labour intensive and expensive. Also, manifold increase of protein sequences in the databanks over the years necessitates the improvement of high speed and accurate computational methods for predicting phosphorylation sites in protein sequences. Till date, a number of computational methods have been proposed by various researchers in predicting phosphorylation sites, but there remains much scope of improvement. In this communication, we present a simple and novel method based on Grammatical Inference (GI) approach to automate the prediction of kinase specific phosphorylation sites. In this regard, we have used a popular GI algorithm Alergia to infer Deterministic Stochastic Finite State Automata (DSFA) which equally represents the regular grammar corresponding to the phosphorylation sites. Extensive experiments on several datasets generated by us reveal that, our inferred grammar successfully predicts phosphorylation sites in a kinase specific manner. It performs significantly better when compared with the other existing phosphorylation site prediction methods. We have also compared our inferred DSFA with two other GI inference algorithms. The DSFA generated by our method performs superior which indicates that our method is robust and has a potential for predicting the phosphorylation sites in a kinase specific manner.

A Grammar Inference Approach for Predicting Kinase Specific Phosphorylation Sites

Science.gov (United States)

Datta, Sutapa; Mukhopadhyay, Subhasis

2015-01-01

Kinase mediated phosphorylation site detection is the key mechanism of post translational mechanism that plays an important role in regulating various cellular processes and phenotypes. Many diseases, like cancer are related with the signaling defects which are associated with protein phosphorylation. Characterizing the protein kinases and their substrates enhances our ability to understand the mechanism of protein phosphorylation and extends our knowledge of signaling network; thereby helping us to treat such diseases. Experimental methods for predicting phosphorylation sites are labour intensive and expensive. Also, manifold increase of protein sequences in the databanks over the years necessitates the improvement of high speed and accurate computational methods for predicting phosphorylation sites in protein sequences. Till date, a number of computational methods have been proposed by various researchers in predicting phosphorylation sites, but there remains much scope of improvement. In this communication, we present a simple and novel method based on Grammatical Inference (GI) approach to automate the prediction of kinase specific phosphorylation sites. In this regard, we have used a popular GI algorithm Alergia to infer Deterministic Stochastic Finite State Automata (DSFA) which equally represents the regular grammar corresponding to the phosphorylation sites. Extensive experiments on several datasets generated by us reveal that, our inferred grammar successfully predicts phosphorylation sites in a kinase specific manner. It performs significantly better when compared with the other existing phosphorylation site prediction methods. We have also compared our inferred DSFA with two other GI inference algorithms. The DSFA generated by our method performs superior which indicates that our method is robust and has a potential for predicting the phosphorylation sites in a kinase specific manner. PMID:25886273

Reliability of dose volume constraint inference from clinical data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lutz, C M; Møller, D S; Hoffmann, L

2017-01-01

Dose volume histogram points (DVHPs) frequently serve as dose constraints in radiotherapy treatment planning. An experiment was designed to investigate the reliability of DVHP inference from clinical data for multiple cohort sizes and complication incidence rates. The experimental background...... was radiation pneumonitis in non-small cell lung cancer and the DVHP inference method was based on logistic regression. From 102 NSCLC real-life dose distributions and a postulated DVHP model, an 'ideal' cohort was generated where the most predictive model was equal to the postulated model. A bootstrap...

Paradoxical versus modulated conditional inferences: An explanation from the Stoicism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miguel López-Astorga

Full Text Available Abstract According to standard propositional logic, the inferences in which the conditional introduction rule is used are absolutely correct. However, people do not always accept inferences of that kind. Orenes and Johnson-Laird carried out interesting experiments in this way and, based on the general framework of the mental models theory, explained clearly in which cases and under which circumstances such inferences are accepted and rejected. The goals of this paper are both to better understand some aspects of Stoic logic and to check whether or not that very logic can also offer an account on this issue. My conclusions are that, indeed, this later logic can do that, and that the results obtained by Orenes and Johnson-Laird can be explained based on the information that the sources provide on Stoic logic.

Technical Note: How to use Winbugs to infer animal models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Damgaard, Lars Holm

2007-01-01

This paper deals with Bayesian inferences of animal models using Gibbs sampling. First, we suggest a general and efficient method for updating additive genetic effects, in which the computational cost is independent of the pedigree depth and increases linearly only with the size of the pedigree....... Second, we show how this approach can be used to draw inferences from a wide range of animal models using the computer package Winbugs. Finally, we illustrate the approach in a simulation study, in which the data are generated and analyzed using Winbugs according to a linear model with i.i.d errors...... having Student's t distributions. In conclusion, Winbugs can be used to make inferences in small-sized, quantitative, genetic data sets applying a wide range of animal models that are not yet standard in the animal breeding literature...

Caving thickness effects of surrounding rocks macro stress shell evolving characteristics

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

XIE Guang-xiang; YANG Ke

2009-01-01

In order to explore the influence of different caving thicknesses on the MSS dis-tribution and evolving characteristics of surrounding rocks in unsymmetrical disposal and fully mechanized top-coal caving (FMTC), based on unsymmetrical disposal characteris-tics, the analyses of numerical simulation, material simulation and in-situ observation were synthetically applied according to the geological and technical conditions of the 1151(3) working face in Xieqiao Mine. The results show that the stress peak value of the MSS-base and the ratio of MSS-body height to caving thickness are nonlinear and inversely proportional to the caving thickness. The MSS-base width, the MSS-body height, the MSS-base distance to working face wall and the rise distance of MSS-base beside coal pillar are nonlinear and directly proportional to the caving thickness. The characteristics of MSS distribution and its evolving rules of surrounding rocks and the integrated caving thickness effects are obtained. The investigations will provide lots of theoretic references to the surrounding rocks' stability control of the working face and roadway, roadway layout, gas extraction and exploitation, and efficiency of caving, etc.

High-energy gamma-ray emission in compact binaries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cerutti, Benoit

2010-01-01

Four gamma-ray sources have been associated with binary systems in our Galaxy: the micro-quasar Cygnus X-3 and the gamma-ray binaries LS I +61 degrees 303, LS 5039 and PSR B1259-63. These systems are composed of a massive companion star and a compact object of unknown nature, except in PSR B1259-63 where there is a young pulsar. I propose a comprehensive theoretical model for the high-energy gamma-ray emission and variability in gamma-ray emitting binaries. In this model, the high-energy radiation is produced by inverse Compton scattering of stellar photons on ultra-relativistic electron-positron pairs injected by a young pulsar in gamma-ray binaries and in a relativistic jet in micro-quasars. Considering anisotropic inverse Compton scattering, pair production and pair cascade emission, the TeV gamma-ray emission is well explained in LS 5039. Nevertheless, this model cannot account for the gamma-ray emission in LS I +61 degrees 303 and PSR B1259-63. Other processes should dominate in these complex systems. In Cygnus X-3, the gamma-ray radiation is convincingly reproduced by Doppler-boosted Compton emission of pairs in a relativistic jet. Gamma-ray binaries and micro-quasars provide a novel environment for the study of pulsar winds and relativistic jets at very small spatial scales. (author)

Study on water migration of tunnel surrounding rock in nuclear waste repository based on coupling theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang Zhongming; Zhang Xinmin

2008-01-01

Excavation of tunnel changes not only the stresses and deformation of tunnel surrounding rock, but also disturbs the underground water environment in tunnel surrounding rock Water migration happens due to variation of pore water pressure and redistribution. Based on the mechanics of porous media, saturated and unsaturated hydro-mechanical coupling analysis method is employed to study the variation of the stresses, deformation and pore pressure of the surrounding rock. Case study indicates that the excavation of tunnel will induce redistribution of stress and pore water pressure. Redistribution of pore water pressure will seriously affect on evaluation of surrounding rock stability and diffusion of nucleon in the pore water. (authors)

Design of uav robust autopilot based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohand Achour Touat

2008-04-01

Full Text Available  This paper is devoted to the application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems to the robust control of the UAV longitudinal motion. The adaptive neore-fuzzy inference system model needs to be trained by input/output data. This data were obtained from the modeling of a ”crisp” robust control system. The synthesis of this system is based on the separation theorem, which defines the structure and parameters of LQG-optimal controller, and further - robust optimization of this controller, based on the genetic algorithm. Such design procedure can define the rule base and parameters of fuzzyfication and defuzzyfication algorithms of the adaptive neore-fuzzy inference system controller, which ensure the robust properties of the control system. Simulation of the closed loop control system of UAV longitudinal motion with adaptive neore-fuzzy inference system controller demonstrates high efficiency of proposed design procedure.

Interest, Inferences, and Learning from Texts

Science.gov (United States)

Clinton, Virginia; van den Broek, Paul

2012-01-01

Topic interest and learning from texts have been found to be positively associated with each other. However, the reason for this positive association is not well understood. The purpose of this study is to examine a cognitive process, inference generation, that could explain the positive association between interest and learning from texts. In…

Inferring Stop-Locations from WiFi

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wind, David Kofoed; Sapiezynski, Piotr; Furman, Magdalena Anna

2016-01-01

methods are based exclusively on WiFi data. We study two months of WiFi data collected every two minutes by a smartphone, and infer stop-locations in the form of labelled time-intervals. For this purpose, we investigate two algorithms, both of which scale to large datasets: a greedy approach to select...

Inference and the Introductory Statistics Course

Science.gov (United States)

Pfannkuch, Maxine; Regan, Matt; Wild, Chris; Budgett, Stephanie; Forbes, Sharleen; Harraway, John; Parsonage, Ross

2011-01-01

This article sets out some of the rationale and arguments for making major changes to the teaching and learning of statistical inference in introductory courses at our universities by changing from a norm-based, mathematical approach to more conceptually accessible computer-based approaches. The core problem of the inferential argument with its…

Effects of Surrounding Information and Line Length on Text Comprehension from the Web

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jess McMullin

2002-02-01

Full Text Available The World Wide Web (Web is becoming a popular medium for transmission of information and online learning. We need to understand how people comprehend information from the Web to design Web sites that maximize the acquisition of information. We examined two features of Web page design that are easily modified by developers, namely line length and the amount of surrounding information, or whitespace. Undergraduate university student participants read text and answered comprehension questions on the Web. Comprehension was affected by whitespace; participants had better comprehension for information surrounded by whitespace than for information surrounded by meaningless information. Participants were not affected by line length. These findings demonstrate that reading from the Web is not the same as reading print and have implications for instructional Web design.

A Bayesian approach to infer nitrogen loading rates from crop and land-use types surrounding private wells in the Central Valley, California

Science.gov (United States)

Ransom, Katherine M.; Bell, Andrew M.; Barber, Quinn E.; Kourakos, George; Harter, Thomas

2018-05-01

This study is focused on nitrogen loading from a wide variety of crop and land-use types in the Central Valley, California, USA, an intensively farmed region with high agricultural crop diversity. Nitrogen loading rates for several crop types have been measured based on field-scale experiments, and recent research has calculated nitrogen loading rates for crops throughout the Central Valley based on a mass balance approach. However, research is lacking to infer nitrogen loading rates for the broad diversity of crop and land-use types directly from groundwater nitrate measurements. Relating groundwater nitrate measurements to specific crops must account for the uncertainty about and multiplicity in contributing crops (and other land uses) to individual well measurements, and for the variability of nitrogen loading within farms and from farm to farm for the same crop type. In this study, we developed a Bayesian regression model that allowed us to estimate land-use-specific groundwater nitrogen loading rate probability distributions for 15 crop and land-use groups based on a database of recent nitrate measurements from 2149 private wells in the Central Valley. The water and natural, rice, and alfalfa and pasture groups had the lowest median estimated nitrogen loading rates, each with a median estimate below 5 kg N ha-1 yr-1. Confined animal feeding operations (dairies) and citrus and subtropical crops had the greatest median estimated nitrogen loading rates at approximately 269 and 65 kg N ha-1 yr-1, respectively. In general, our probability-based estimates compare favorably with previous direct measurements and with mass-balance-based estimates of nitrogen loading. Nitrogen mass-balance-based estimates are larger than our groundwater nitrate derived estimates for manured and nonmanured forage, nuts, cotton, tree fruit, and rice crops. These discrepancies are thought to be due to groundwater age mixing, dilution from infiltrating river water, or denitrification

Spot testing on mechanical characteristics of surrounding rock in gates of fully mechanized top-coal caving face

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xie Guang-xiang; Yang Ke; Chang Ju-cai [Anhui University of Science and Technology, Anhui (China). Department of Resource Exploration and Management Engineering

2006-07-01

The distribution patterns of mechanical characteristics for surrounding rock in the gateways of fully mechanized top-coal caving (FMTC) face were put forward by analyzing deep displacement, surface displacement, stress distribution and supports loading. The results show that the surrounding rock of the gateways lies in abutment pressure decrease zone near the working face, so that the support load decreases. But the deformations of supports and surrounding rock are very acute. The deformation of surrounding rock appears mainly in abutment pressure influence zone. Reasonable roadway supporting should control the deformation of surrounding rock in intense stage of mining influence. Supporting design ideas of tailentry and head entry should be changed from loading control to deformation control. 8 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab.

Contamination of nebulisers and surrounding air at the bedside of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

An air sampler was used to collect air samples from the surrounding bedside environment. .... individualised resealable plastic bags and stored upside down in a cooler .... conventional and mesh technology nebulisers used at home by adults.

Phase-specific Surround suppression in Mouse Primary Visual Cortex Correlates with Figure Detection Behavior Based on Phase Discontinuity.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Fengling; Jiang, Weiqian; Wang, Tian-Yi; Xie, Taorong; Yao, Haishan

2018-05-21

In the primary visual cortex (V1), neuronal responses to stimuli within the receptive field (RF) are modulated by stimuli in the RF surround. A common effect of surround modulation is surround suppression, which is dependent on the feature difference between stimuli within and surround the RF and is suggested to be involved in the perceptual phenomenon of figure-ground segregation. In this study, we examined the relationship between feature-specific surround suppression of V1 neurons and figure detection behavior based on figure-ground feature difference. We trained freely moving mice to perform a figure detection task using figure and ground gratings that differed in spatial phase. The performance of figure detection increased with the figure-ground phase difference, and was modulated by stimulus contrast. Electrophysiological recordings from V1 in head-fixed mice showed that the increase in phase difference between stimuli within and surround the RF caused a reduction in surround suppression, which was associated with an increase in V1 neural discrimination between stimuli with and without RF-surround phase difference. Consistent with the behavioral performance, the sensitivity of V1 neurons to RF-surround phase difference could be influenced by stimulus contrast. Furthermore, inhibiting V1 by optogenetically activating either parvalbumin (PV)- or somatostatin (SOM)-expressing inhibitory neurons both decreased the behavioral performance of figure detection. Thus, the phase-specific surround suppression in V1 represents a neural correlate of figure detection behavior based on figure-ground phase discontinuity. Copyright © 2018 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

3D Room Visualization on Android Based Mobile Device (with Philips™’ Surround Sound Music Player

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Durio Etgar

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This project’s specifically purposed as a demo application, so anyone can get the experience of a surround audio room without having to physically involved to it, with a main idea of generating a 3D surround sound room scenery coupled with surround sound in a handier package, namely, a “Virtual Listen Room”. Virtual Listen Room set a foundation of an innovative visualization that later will be developed and released as one of way of portable advertisement. This application was built inside of Android environment. Android device had been chosen as the implementation target, since it leaves massive development spaces and mostly contains essential components needed on this project, including graphic processor unit (GPU.  Graphic manipulation can be done using an embedded programming interface called OpenGL ES, which is planted in all Android devices generally. Further, Android has a Accelerometer Sensor that is needed to be coupled with scene to produce a dynamic movement of the camera. Surround sound effect can be reached with a decoder from Phillips called MPEG Surround Sound Decoder. To sum the whole project, we got an application with sensor-dynamic 3D room visualization coupled with Philips’ Surround Sound Music Player. We can manipulate several room’s properties; Subwoofer location, Room light, and how many speakers inside it, the application itself works well despite facing several performance problems before, later to be solved. [Keywords : Android,Visualization,Open GL; ES; 3D; Surround Sensor

A Hierarchical Poisson Log-Normal Model for Network Inference from RNA Sequencing Data

Science.gov (United States)

Gallopin, Mélina; Rau, Andrea; Jaffrézic, Florence

2013-01-01

Gene network inference from transcriptomic data is an important methodological challenge and a key aspect of systems biology. Although several methods have been proposed to infer networks from microarray data, there is a need for inference methods able to model RNA-seq data, which are count-based and highly variable. In this work we propose a hierarchical Poisson log-normal model with a Lasso penalty to infer gene networks from RNA-seq data; this model has the advantage of directly modelling discrete data and accounting for inter-sample variance larger than the sample mean. Using real microRNA-seq data from breast cancer tumors and simulations, we compare this method to a regularized Gaussian graphical model on log-transformed data, and a Poisson log-linear graphical model with a Lasso penalty on power-transformed data. For data simulated with large inter-sample dispersion, the proposed model performs better than the other methods in terms of sensitivity, specificity and area under the ROC curve. These results show the necessity of methods specifically designed for gene network inference from RNA-seq data. PMID:24147011

A feedback framework for protein inference with peptides identified from tandem mass spectra

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shi Jinhong

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Protein inference is an important computational step in proteomics. There exists a natural nest relationship between protein inference and peptide identification, but these two steps are usually performed separately in existing methods. We believe that both peptide identification and protein inference can be improved by exploring such nest relationship. Results In this study, a feedback framework is proposed to process peptide identification reports from search engines, and an iterative method is implemented to exemplify the processing of Sequest peptide identification reports according to the framework. The iterative method is verified on two datasets with known validity of proteins and peptides, and compared with ProteinProphet and PeptideProphet. The results have shown that not only can the iterative method infer more true positive and less false positive proteins than ProteinProphet, but also identify more true positive and less false positive peptides than PeptideProphet. Conclusions The proposed iterative method implemented according to the feedback framework can unify and improve the results of peptide identification and protein inference.

I know why you voted for Trump: (Over)inferring motives based on choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Barasz, Kate; Kim, Tami; Evangelidis, Ioannis

2018-05-10

People often speculate about why others make the choices they do. This paper investigates how such inferences are formed as a function of what is chosen. Specifically, when observers encounter someone else's choice (e.g., of political candidate), they use the chosen option's attribute values (e.g., a candidate's specific stance on a policy issue) to infer the importance of that attribute (e.g., the policy issue) to the decision-maker. Consequently, when a chosen option has an attribute whose value is extreme (e.g., an extreme policy stance), observers infer-sometimes incorrectly-that this attribute disproportionately motivated the decision-maker's choice. Seven studies demonstrate how observers use an attribute's value to infer its weight-the value-weight heuristic-and identify the role of perceived diagnosticity: more extreme attribute values give observers the subjective sense that they know more about a decision-maker's preferences, and in turn, increase the attribute's perceived importance. The paper explores how this heuristic can produce erroneous inferences and influence broader beliefs about decision-makers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A multi-criteria inference approach for anti-desertification management.

Science.gov (United States)

Tervonen, Tommi; Sepehr, Adel; Kadziński, Miłosz

2015-10-01

We propose an approach for classifying land zones into categories indicating their resilience against desertification. Environmental management support is provided by a multi-criteria inference method that derives a set of value functions compatible with the given classification examples, and applies them to define, for the rest of the zones, their possible classes. In addition, a representative value function is inferred to explain the relative importance of the criteria to the stakeholders. We use the approach for classifying 28 administrative regions of the Khorasan Razavi province in Iran into three equilibrium classes: collapsed, transition, and sustainable zones. The model is parameterized with enhanced vegetation index measurements from 2005 to 2012, and 7 other natural and anthropogenic indicators for the status of the region in 2012. Results indicate that grazing density and land use changes are the main anthropogenic factors affecting desertification in Khorasan Razavi. The inference procedure suggests that the classification model is underdetermined in terms of attributes, but the approach itself is promising for supporting the management of anti-desertification efforts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Causal Inference and Explaining Away in a Spiking Network

Science.gov (United States)

Moreno-Bote, Rubén; Drugowitsch, Jan

2015-01-01

While the brain uses spiking neurons for communication, theoretical research on brain computations has mostly focused on non-spiking networks. The nature of spike-based algorithms that achieve complex computations, such as object probabilistic inference, is largely unknown. Here we demonstrate that a family of high-dimensional quadratic optimization problems with non-negativity constraints can be solved exactly and efficiently by a network of spiking neurons. The network naturally imposes the non-negativity of causal contributions that is fundamental to causal inference, and uses simple operations, such as linear synapses with realistic time constants, and neural spike generation and reset non-linearities. The network infers the set of most likely causes from an observation using explaining away, which is dynamically implemented by spike-based, tuned inhibition. The algorithm performs remarkably well even when the network intrinsically generates variable spike trains, the timing of spikes is scrambled by external sources of noise, or the network is mistuned. This type of network might underlie tasks such as odor identification and classification. PMID:26621426

Connectivity inference from neural recording data: Challenges, mathematical bases and research directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Magrans de Abril, Ildefons; Yoshimoto, Junichiro; Doya, Kenji

2018-06-01

This article presents a review of computational methods for connectivity inference from neural activity data derived from multi-electrode recordings or fluorescence imaging. We first identify biophysical and technical challenges in connectivity inference along the data processing pipeline. We then review connectivity inference methods based on two major mathematical foundations, namely, descriptive model-free approaches and generative model-based approaches. We investigate representative studies in both categories and clarify which challenges have been addressed by which method. We further identify critical open issues and possible research directions. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Bayesian inference in probabilistic risk assessment-The current state of the art

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kelly, Dana L.; Smith, Curtis L.

2009-01-01

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches to sampling directly from the joint posterior distribution of aleatory model parameters have led to tremendous advances in Bayesian inference capability in a wide variety of fields, including probabilistic risk analysis. The advent of freely available software coupled with inexpensive computing power has catalyzed this advance. This paper examines where the risk assessment community is with respect to implementing modern computational-based Bayesian approaches to inference. Through a series of examples in different topical areas, it introduces salient concepts and illustrates the practical application of Bayesian inference via MCMC sampling to a variety of important problems

Comparison of Urban Human Movements Inferring from Multi-Source Spatial-Temporal Data

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Rui; Tu, Wei; Cao, Jinzhou; Li, Qingquan

2016-06-01

The quantification of human movements is very hard because of the sparsity of traditional data and the labour intensive of the data collecting process. Recently, much spatial-temporal data give us an opportunity to observe human movement. This research investigates the relationship of city-wide human movements inferring from two types of spatial-temporal data at traffic analysis zone (TAZ) level. The first type of human movement is inferred from long-time smart card transaction data recording the boarding actions. The second type of human movement is extracted from citywide time sequenced mobile phone data with 30 minutes interval. Travel volume, travel distance and travel time are used to measure aggregated human movements in the city. To further examine the relationship between the two types of inferred movements, the linear correlation analysis is conducted on the hourly travel volume. The obtained results show that human movements inferred from smart card data and mobile phone data have a correlation of 0.635. However, there are still some non-ignorable differences in some special areas. This research not only reveals the citywide spatial-temporal human dynamic but also benefits the understanding of the reliability of the inference of human movements with big spatial-temporal data.

COMPARISON OF URBAN HUMAN MOVEMENTS INFERRING FROM MULTI-SOURCE SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DATA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Cao

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The quantification of human movements is very hard because of the sparsity of traditional data and the labour intensive of the data collecting process. Recently, much spatial-temporal data give us an opportunity to observe human movement. This research investigates the relationship of city-wide human movements inferring from two types of spatial-temporal data at traffic analysis zone (TAZ level. The first type of human movement is inferred from long-time smart card transaction data recording the boarding actions. The second type of human movement is extracted from citywide time sequenced mobile phone data with 30 minutes interval. Travel volume, travel distance and travel time are used to measure aggregated human movements in the city. To further examine the relationship between the two types of inferred movements, the linear correlation analysis is conducted on the hourly travel volume. The obtained results show that human movements inferred from smart card data and mobile phone data have a correlation of 0.635. However, there are still some non-ignorable differences in some special areas. This research not only reveals the citywide spatial-temporal human dynamic but also benefits the understanding of the reliability of the inference of human movements with big spatial-temporal data.

Learning Probabilistic Inference through Spike-Timing-Dependent Plasticity.

Science.gov (United States)

Pecevski, Dejan; Maass, Wolfgang

2016-01-01

Numerous experimental data show that the brain is able to extract information from complex, uncertain, and often ambiguous experiences. Furthermore, it can use such learnt information for decision making through probabilistic inference. Several models have been proposed that aim at explaining how probabilistic inference could be performed by networks of neurons in the brain. We propose here a model that can also explain how such neural network could acquire the necessary information for that from examples. We show that spike-timing-dependent plasticity in combination with intrinsic plasticity generates in ensembles of pyramidal cells with lateral inhibition a fundamental building block for that: probabilistic associations between neurons that represent through their firing current values of random variables. Furthermore, by combining such adaptive network motifs in a recursive manner the resulting network is enabled to extract statistical information from complex input streams, and to build an internal model for the distribution p (*) that generates the examples it receives. This holds even if p (*) contains higher-order moments. The analysis of this learning process is supported by a rigorous theoretical foundation. Furthermore, we show that the network can use the learnt internal model immediately for prediction, decision making, and other types of probabilistic inference.

Probabilistic Inference of Biological Networks via Data Integration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark F. Rogers

2015-01-01

Full Text Available There is significant interest in inferring the structure of subcellular networks of interaction. Here we consider supervised interactive network inference in which a reference set of known network links and nonlinks is used to train a classifier for predicting new links. Many types of data are relevant to inferring functional links between genes, motivating the use of data integration. We use pairwise kernels to predict novel links, along with multiple kernel learning to integrate distinct sources of data into a decision function. We evaluate various pairwise kernels to establish which are most informative and compare individual kernel accuracies with accuracies for weighted combinations. By associating a probability measure with classifier predictions, we enable cautious classification, which can increase accuracy by restricting predictions to high-confidence instances, and data cleaning that can mitigate the influence of mislabeled training instances. Although one pairwise kernel (the tensor product pairwise kernel appears to work best, different kernels may contribute complimentary information about interactions: experiments in S. cerevisiae (yeast reveal that a weighted combination of pairwise kernels applied to different types of data yields the highest predictive accuracy. Combined with cautious classification and data cleaning, we can achieve predictive accuracies of up to 99.6%.

Subjective randomness as statistical inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Griffiths, Thomas L; Daniels, Dylan; Austerweil, Joseph L; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

2018-06-01

Some events seem more random than others. For example, when tossing a coin, a sequence of eight heads in a row does not seem very random. Where do these intuitions about randomness come from? We argue that subjective randomness can be understood as the result of a statistical inference assessing the evidence that an event provides for having been produced by a random generating process. We show how this account provides a link to previous work relating randomness to algorithmic complexity, in which random events are those that cannot be described by short computer programs. Algorithmic complexity is both incomputable and too general to capture the regularities that people can recognize, but viewing randomness as statistical inference provides two paths to addressing these problems: considering regularities generated by simpler computing machines, and restricting the set of probability distributions that characterize regularity. Building on previous work exploring these different routes to a more restricted notion of randomness, we define strong quantitative models of human randomness judgments that apply not just to binary sequences - which have been the focus of much of the previous work on subjective randomness - but also to binary matrices and spatial clustering. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Varieties of Quest and the Religious Openness Hypothesis within Religious Fundamentalist and Biblical Foundationalist Ideological Surrounds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. J. Watson

2013-12-01

Full Text Available According to the Religious Openness Hypothesis, the religious and psychological openness of American Christians is obscured by a defensive ghettoization of thought associated with a Religious Fundamentalist Ideological Surround and can be discovered instead within a Biblical Foundationalist Ideological Surround. A test of this claim examined Religious Fundamentalism, Biblical Foundationalism, Quest, and Multidimensional Quest Scales in 432 undergraduates. Christian Religious Reflection, Religious Schema, and Religious Orientation measures clarified these two ideological surrounds. Partial correlations controlling for Biblical Foundationalism described a Religious Fundamentalist Ideological Surround that more strongly rejected Quest and that more generally displayed a failure to integrate faith with intellect. Partial correlations controlling for Religious Fundamentalism revealed a Biblical Foundationalist Ideological Surround that was more open to Quest and that offered numerous demonstrations of an ability to unite faith with intellect. These data supplemented previous investigations in demonstrating that Christianity and other traditional religions have ideological resources for promoting a faithful intellect.

Inferring Fitness Effects from Time-Resolved Sequence Data with a Delay-Deterministic Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Nené, Nuno R; Dunham, Alistair S; Illingworth, Christopher J R

2018-05-01

A common challenge arising from the observation of an evolutionary system over time is to infer the magnitude of selection acting upon a specific genetic variant, or variants, within the population. The inference of selection may be confounded by the effects of genetic drift in a system, leading to the development of inference procedures to account for these effects. However, recent work has suggested that deterministic models of evolution may be effective in capturing the effects of selection even under complex models of demography, suggesting the more general application of deterministic approaches to inference. Responding to this literature, we here note a case in which a deterministic model of evolution may give highly misleading inferences, resulting from the nondeterministic properties of mutation in a finite population. We propose an alternative approach that acts to correct for this error, and which we denote the delay-deterministic model. Applying our model to a simple evolutionary system, we demonstrate its performance in quantifying the extent of selection acting within that system. We further consider the application of our model to sequence data from an evolutionary experiment. We outline scenarios in which our model may produce improved results for the inference of selection, noting that such situations can be easily identified via the use of a regular deterministic model. Copyright © 2018 Nené et al.

Orientation-specific surround suppression in the primary visual cortex varies as a function of autistic tendency

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anastasia V Flevaris

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD exhibit superior performance on tasks that rely on local details in an image, and they exhibit deficits in tasks that require integration of local elements into a unified whole. These perceptual abnormalities have been proposed to underlie many of the characteristic features of ASD, but the underlying neural mechanisms are poorly understood. Here, we investigated the degree to which orientation-specific surround suppression, a well-known form of contextual modulation in visual cortex, is associated with autistic tendency in neurotypical individuals. Surround suppression refers to the phenomenon that the response to a stimulus in the receptive field of a neuron is suppressed when it is surrounded by stimuli just outside the receptive field. The suppression is greatest when the center and surrounding stimuli share perceptual features such as orientation. Surround suppression underlies a number of fundamental perceptual processes that are known to be atypical in individuals with ASD, including perceptual grouping and perceptual pop-out. However, whether surround suppression in the primary visual cortex (V1 is related to autistic traits has not been directly tested before. We used fMRI to measure the neural response to a center Gabor when it was surrounded by Gabors having the same or orthogonal orientation, and calculated a suppression index (SI for each participant that denoted the magnitude of suppression in the same versus orthogonal conditions. SI was positively correlated with degree of autistic tendency in each individual, as measured by the Autism Quotient (AQ scale, a questionnaire designed to assess autistic traits in the general population. Age also correlated with SI and with autistic tendency in our sample, but did not account for the correlation between SI and autistic tendency. These results suggest a reduction in orientation-specific surround suppression in V1 with increasing autistic

Cortical information flow during inferences of agency

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dogge, Myrthel; Hofman, Dennis; Boersma, Maria; Dijkerman, H Chris; Aarts, Henk

2014-01-01

Building on the recent finding that agency experiences do not merely rely on sensorimotor information but also on cognitive cues, this exploratory study uses electroencephalographic recordings to examine functional connectivity during agency inference processing in a setting where action and outcome

Facility Activity Inference Using Radiation Networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rao, Nageswara S. [ORNL; Ramirez Aviles, Camila A. [ORNL

2017-11-01

We consider the problem of inferring the operational status of a reactor facility using measurements from a radiation sensor network deployed around the facility’s ventilation off-gas stack. The intensity of stack emissions decays with distance, and the sensor counts or measurements are inherently random with parameters determined by the intensity at the sensor’s location. We utilize the measurements to estimate the intensity at the stack, and use it in a one-sided Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) to infer on/off status of the reactor. We demonstrate the superior performance of this method over conventional majority fusers and individual sensors using (i) test measurements from a network of 21 NaI detectors, and (ii) effluence measurements collected at the stack of a reactor facility. We also analytically establish the superior detection performance of the network over individual sensors with fixed and adaptive thresholds by utilizing the Poisson distribution of the counts. We quantify the performance improvements of the network detection over individual sensors using the packing number of the intensity space.

Inferring climate sensitivity from volcanic events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boer, G.J. [Environment Canada, University of Victoria, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); Stowasser, M.; Hamilton, K. [University of Hawaii, International Pacific Research Centre, Honolulu, HI (United States)

2007-04-15

The possibility of estimating the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the earth-system from observations following explosive volcanic eruptions is assessed in the context of a perfect model study. Two modern climate models (the CCCma CGCM3 and the NCAR CCSM2) with different equilibrium climate sensitivities are employed in the investigation. The models are perturbed with the same transient volcano-like forcing and the responses analysed to infer climate sensitivities. For volcano-like forcing the global mean surface temperature responses of the two models are very similar, despite their differing equilibrium climate sensitivities, indicating that climate sensitivity cannot be inferred from the temperature record alone even if the forcing is known. Equilibrium climate sensitivities can be reasonably determined only if both the forcing and the change in heat storage in the system are known very accurately. The geographic patterns of clear-sky atmosphere/surface and cloud feedbacks are similar for both the transient volcano-like and near-equilibrium constant forcing simulations showing that, to a considerable extent, the same feedback processes are invoked, and determine the climate sensitivity, in both cases. (orig.)

Visual Aids Improve Diagnostic Inferences and Metacognitive Judgment Calibration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rocio eGarcia-Retamero

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Visual aids can improve comprehension of risks associated with medical treatments, screenings, and lifestyles. Do visual aids also help decision makers accurately assess their risk comprehension? That is, do visual aids help them become well calibrated? To address these questions, we investigated the benefits of visual aids displaying numerical information and measured accuracy of self-assessment of diagnostic inferences (i.e., metacognitive judgment calibration controlling for individual differences in numeracy. Participants included 108 patients who made diagnostic inferences about three medical tests on the basis of information about the sensitivity and false-positive rate of the tests and disease prevalence. Half of the patients received the information in numbers without a visual aid, while the other half received numbers along with a grid representing the numerical information. In the numerical condition, many patients --especially those with low numeracy-- misinterpreted the predictive value of the tests and profoundly overestimated the accuracy of their inferences. Metacognitive judgment calibration mediated the relationship between numeracy and accuracy of diagnostic inferences. In contrast, in the visual aid condition, patients at all levels of numeracy showed high-levels of inferential accuracy and metacognitive judgment calibration. Results indicate that accurate metacognitive assessment may explain the beneficial effects of visual aids and numeracy --a result that accords with theory suggesting that metacognition is an essential part of risk literacy. We conclude that well-designed risk communications can inform patients about health-relevant numerical information while helping them assess the quality of their own risk comprehension.

Inferring time derivatives including cell growth rates using Gaussian processes

Science.gov (United States)

Swain, Peter S.; Stevenson, Keiran; Leary, Allen; Montano-Gutierrez, Luis F.; Clark, Ivan B. N.; Vogel, Jackie; Pilizota, Teuta

2016-12-01

Often the time derivative of a measured variable is of as much interest as the variable itself. For a growing population of biological cells, for example, the population's growth rate is typically more important than its size. Here we introduce a non-parametric method to infer first and second time derivatives as a function of time from time-series data. Our approach is based on Gaussian processes and applies to a wide range of data. In tests, the method is at least as accurate as others, but has several advantages: it estimates errors both in the inference and in any summary statistics, such as lag times, and allows interpolation with the corresponding error estimation. As illustrations, we infer growth rates of microbial cells, the rate of assembly of an amyloid fibril and both the speed and acceleration of two separating spindle pole bodies. Our algorithm should thus be broadly applicable.

Cultural effects on the association between election outcomes and face-based trait inferences.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chujun Lin

Full Text Available How competent a politician looks, as assessed in the laboratory, is correlated with whether the politician wins in real elections. This finding has led many to investigate whether the association between candidate appearances and election outcomes transcends cultures. However, these studies have largely focused on European countries and Caucasian candidates. To the best of our knowledge, there are only four cross-cultural studies that have directly investigated how face-based trait inferences correlate with election outcomes across Caucasian and Asian cultures. These prior studies have provided some initial evidence regarding cultural differences, but methodological problems and inconsistent findings have complicated our understanding of how culture mediates the effects of candidate appearances on election outcomes. Additionally, these four past studies have focused on positive traits, with a relative neglect of negative traits, resulting in an incomplete picture of how culture may impact a broader range of trait inferences. To study Caucasian-Asian cultural effects with a more balanced experimental design, and to explore a more complete profile of traits, here we compared how Caucasian and Korean participants' inferences of positive and negative traits correlated with U.S. and Korean election outcomes. Contrary to previous reports, we found that inferences of competence (made by participants from both cultures correlated with both U.S. and Korean election outcomes. Inferences of open-mindedness and threat, two traits neglected in previous cross-cultural studies, were correlated with Korean but not U.S. election outcomes. This differential effect was found in trait judgments made by both Caucasian and Korean participants. Interestingly, the faster the participants made face-based trait inferences, the more strongly those inferences were correlated with real election outcomes. These findings provide new insights into cultural effects and the

Benchmarking Relatedness Inference Methods with Genome-Wide Data from Thousands of Relatives.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramstetter, Monica D; Dyer, Thomas D; Lehman, Donna M; Curran, Joanne E; Duggirala, Ravindranath; Blangero, John; Mezey, Jason G; Williams, Amy L

2017-09-01

Inferring relatedness from genomic data is an essential component of genetic association studies, population genetics, forensics, and genealogy. While numerous methods exist for inferring relatedness, thorough evaluation of these approaches in real data has been lacking. Here, we report an assessment of 12 state-of-the-art pairwise relatedness inference methods using a data set with 2485 individuals contained in several large pedigrees that span up to six generations. We find that all methods have high accuracy (92-99%) when detecting first- and second-degree relationships, but their accuracy dwindles to 76% of relative pairs. Overall, the most accurate methods are Estimation of Recent Shared Ancestry (ERSA) and approaches that compute total IBD sharing using the output from GERMLINE and Refined IBD to infer relatedness. Combining information from the most accurate methods provides little accuracy improvement, indicating that novel approaches, such as new methods that leverage relatedness signals from multiple samples, are needed to achieve a sizeable jump in performance. Copyright © 2017 Ramstetter et al.

Opportunity's Surroundings on Sol 1798 (Polar)

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity used its navigation camera to take the images combined into this 180-degree view of the rover's surroundings during the 1,798th Martian day, or sol, of Opportunity's surface mission (Feb. 13, 2009). North is on top. This view is presented as a polar projection with geometric seam correction. The rover had driven 111 meters (364 feet) southward on the preceding sol. Tracks from that drive recede northward in this view. For scale, the distance between the parallel wheel tracks is about 1 meter (about 40 inches). The terrain in this portion of Mars' Meridiani Planum region includes dark-toned sand ripples and lighter-toned bedrock.

Opportunity's Surroundings on Sol 1798 (Vertical)

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity used its navigation camera to take the images combined into this 180-degree view of the rover's surroundings during the 1,798th Martian day, or sol, of Opportunity's surface mission (Feb. 13, 2009). North is on top. This view is presented as a vertical projection with geometric seam correction. The rover had driven 111 meters (364 feet) southward on the preceding sol. Tracks from that drive recede northward in this view. For scale, the distance between the parallel wheel tracks is about 1 meter (about 40 inches). The terrain in this portion of Mars' Meridiani Planum region includes dark-toned sand ripples and lighter-toned bedrock.

Opportunity's Surroundings on Sol 1687 (Vertical)

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity used its navigation camera to take the images combined into this 360-degree view of the rover's surroundings on the 1,687th Martian day, or sol, of its surface mission (Oct. 22, 2008). Opportunity had driven 133 meters (436 feet) that sol, crossing sand ripples up to about 10 centimeters (4 inches) tall. The tracks visible in the foreground are in the east-northeast direction. Opportunity's position on Sol 1687 was about 300 meters southwest of Victoria Crater. The rover was beginning a long trek toward a much larger crater, Endeavour, about 12 kilometers (7 miles) to the southeast. This view is presented as a vertical projection with geometric seam correction.

Opportunity's Surroundings on Sol 1687 (Polar)

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity used its navigation camera to take the images combined into this 360-degree view of the rover's surroundings on the 1,687th Martian day, or sol, of its surface mission (Oct. 22, 2008). Opportunity had driven 133 meters (436 feet) that sol, crossing sand ripples up to about 10 centimeters (4 inches) tall. The tracks visible in the foreground are in the east-northeast direction. Opportunity's position on Sol 1687 was about 300 meters southwest of Victoria Crater. The rover was beginning a long trek toward a much larger crater, Endeavour, about 12 kilometers (7 miles) to the southeast. This view is presented as a polar projection with geometric seam correction.

Discontinuity of maximum entropy inference and quantum phase transitions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Jianxin; Ji, Zhengfeng; Yu, Nengkun; Zeng, Bei; Li, Chi-Kwong; Poon, Yiu-Tung; Shen, Yi; Zhou, Duanlu

2015-01-01

In this paper, we discuss the connection between two genuinely quantum phenomena—the discontinuity of quantum maximum entropy inference and quantum phase transitions at zero temperature. It is shown that the discontinuity of the maximum entropy inference of local observable measurements signals the non-local type of transitions, where local density matrices of the ground state change smoothly at the transition point. We then propose to use the quantum conditional mutual information of the ground state as an indicator to detect the discontinuity and the non-local type of quantum phase transitions in the thermodynamic limit. (paper)

INTERACTIONS OF THE INFRARED BUBBLE N4 WITH ITS SURROUNDINGS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Hong-Li; Li, Jin-Zeng; Yuan, Jing-Hua; Huang, Maohai; Huang, Ya-Fang; Zhang, Si-Ju [National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 20A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012 (China); Wu, Yuefang [Department of Astronomy, Peking University, 100871 Beijing (China); Liu, Tie [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute 776, Daedeokdae-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon, 305-348 (Korea, Republic of); Dubner, G.; Paron, S.; Ortega, M. E. [1Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio (IAFE, CONICET-UBA), CC 67, Suc. 28, 1428 Buenos Aires (Argentina); Molinari, Sergio [Istituto di Astrofisica e Planetologia Spaziali—IAPS, Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica—INAF, via Fosso del Cavaliere 100, I-00133 Roma (Italy); Zavagno, Annie; Samal, Manash R., E-mail: hlliu@nao.cas.cn [Aix Marseille Universit, CNRS, LAM (Laboratoire d’Astrophysique de Marseille) UMR 7326, F-13388, Marseille (France)

2016-02-10

The physical mechanisms that induce the transformation of a certain mass of gas in new stars are far from being well understood. Infrared bubbles associated with H ii regions have been considered to be good samples for investigating triggered star formation. In this paper we report on the investigation of the dust properties of the infrared bubble N4 around the H ii region G11.898+0.747, analyzing its interaction with its surroundings and star formation histories therein, with the aim of determining the possibility of star formation triggered by the expansion of the bubble. Using Herschel PACS and SPIRE images with a wide wavelength coverage, we reveal the dust properties over the entire bubble. Meanwhile, we are able to identify six dust clumps surrounding the bubble, with a mean size of 0.50 pc, temperature of about 22 K, mean column density of 1.7 × 10{sup 22} cm{sup −2}, mean volume density of about 4.4 × 10{sup 4} cm{sup −3}, and a mean mass of 320 M{sub ⊙}. In addition, from PAH emission seen at 8 μm, free–free emission detected at 20 cm, and a probability density function in special regions, we could identify clear signatures of the influence of the H ii region on the surroundings. There are hints of star formation, though further investigation is required to demonstrate that N4 is the triggering source.

Input data for inferring species distributions in Kyphosidae world-wide

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steen Wilhelm Knudsen

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Input data files for inferring the relationship among the family Kyphosidae, as presented in (Knudsen and Clements, 2016 [1], is here provided together with resulting topologies, to allow the reader to explore the topologies in detail. The input data files comprise seven nexus-files with sequence alignments of mtDNA and nDNA markers for performing Bayesian analysis. A matrix of recoded character states inferred from the morphology examined in museum specimens representing Dichistiidae, Girellidae, Kyphosidae, Microcanthidae and Scorpididae, is also provided, and can be used for performing a parsimonious analysis to infer the relationship among these perciform families. The nucleotide input data files comprise both multiple and single representatives of the various species to allow for inference of the relationship among the species in Kyphosidae and between the families closely related to Kyphosidae. The ‘.xml’-files with various constrained relationships among the families potentially closely related to Kyphosidae are also provided to allow the reader to rerun and explore the results from the stepping-stone analysis. The resulting topologies are supplied in newick-file formats together with input data files for Bayesian analysis, together with ‘.xml’-files. Re-running the input data files in the appropriate software, will enable the reader to examine log-files and tree-files themselves. Keywords: Sea chub, Drummer, Kyphosus, Scorpis, Girella

Inference Instruction to Support Reading Comprehension for Elementary Students with Learning Disabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Colby; Barnes, Marcia A.

2017-01-01

Making inferences during reading is a critical standards-based skill and is important for reading comprehension. This article supports the improvement of reading comprehension for students with learning disabilities (LD) in upper elementary grades by reviewing what is currently known about inference instruction for students with LD and providing…

Statistical inference for extended or shortened phase II studies based on Simon's two-stage designs.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Junjun; Yu, Menggang; Feng, Xi-Ping

2015-06-07

Simon's two-stage designs are popular choices for conducting phase II clinical trials, especially in the oncology trials to reduce the number of patients placed on ineffective experimental therapies. Recently Koyama and Chen (2008) discussed how to conduct proper inference for such studies because they found that inference procedures used with Simon's designs almost always ignore the actual sampling plan used. In particular, they proposed an inference method for studies when the actual second stage sample sizes differ from planned ones. We consider an alternative inference method based on likelihood ratio. In particular, we order permissible sample paths under Simon's two-stage designs using their corresponding conditional likelihood. In this way, we can calculate p-values using the common definition: the probability of obtaining a test statistic value at least as extreme as that observed under the null hypothesis. In addition to providing inference for a couple of scenarios where Koyama and Chen's method can be difficult to apply, the resulting estimate based on our method appears to have certain advantage in terms of inference properties in many numerical simulations. It generally led to smaller biases and narrower confidence intervals while maintaining similar coverages. We also illustrated the two methods in a real data setting. Inference procedures used with Simon's designs almost always ignore the actual sampling plan. Reported P-values, point estimates and confidence intervals for the response rate are not usually adjusted for the design's adaptiveness. Proper statistical inference procedures should be used.

An analysis pipeline for the inference of protein-protein interaction networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Taylor, Ronald C.; Singhal, Mudita; Daly, Don S.; Gilmore, Jason M.; Cannon, William R.; Domico, Kelly O.; White, Amanda M.; Auberry, Deanna L.; Auberry, Kenneth J.; Hooker, Brian S.; Hurst, G. B.; McDermott, Jason E.; McDonald, W. H.; Pelletier, Dale A.; Schmoyer, Denise A.; Wiley, H. S.

2009-12-01

An analysis pipeline has been created for deployment of a novel algorithm, the Bayesian Estimator of Protein-Protein Association Probabilities (BEPro), for use in the reconstruction of protein-protein interaction networks. We have combined the Software Environment for BIological Network Inference (SEBINI), an interactive environment for the deployment and testing of network inference algorithms that use high-throughput data, and the Collective Analysis of Biological Interaction Networks (CABIN), software that allows integration and analysis of protein-protein interaction and gene-to-gene regulatory evidence obtained from multiple sources, to allow interactions computed by BEPro to be stored, visualized, and further analyzed. Incorporating BEPro into SEBINI and automatically feeding the resulting inferred network into CABIN, we have created a structured workflow for protein-protein network inference and supplemental analysis from sets of mass spectrometry bait-prey experiment data. SEBINI demo site: https://www.emsl.pnl.gov /SEBINI/ Contact: ronald.taylor@pnl.gov. BEPro is available at http://www.pnl.gov/statistics/BEPro3/index.htm. Contact: ds.daly@pnl.gov. CABIN is available at http://www.sysbio.org/dataresources/cabin.stm. Contact: mudita.singhal@pnl.gov.

POPPER, a simple programming language for probabilistic semantic inference in medicine.

Science.gov (United States)

Robson, Barry

2015-01-01

Our previous reports described the use of the Hyperbolic Dirac Net (HDN) as a method for probabilistic inference from medical data, and a proposed probabilistic medical Semantic Web (SW) language Q-UEL to provide that data. Rather like a traditional Bayes Net, that HDN provided estimates of joint and conditional probabilities, and was static, with no need for evolution due to "reasoning". Use of the SW will require, however, (a) at least the semantic triple with more elaborate relations than conditional ones, as seen in use of most verbs and prepositions, and (b) rules for logical, grammatical, and definitional manipulation that can generate changes in the inference net. Here is described the simple POPPER language for medical inference. It can be automatically written by Q-UEL, or by hand. Based on studies with our medical students, it is believed that a tool like this may help in medical education and that a physician unfamiliar with SW science can understand it. It is here used to explore the considerable challenges of assigning probabilities, and not least what the meaning and utility of inference net evolution would be for a physician. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mechanical Characteristics Analysis of Surrounding Rock on Anchor Bar Reinforcement

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Shuan-cheng; Zhou, Pan; Huang, Rong-bin

2018-03-01

Through the homogenization method, the composite of rock and anchor bar is considered as the equivalent material of continuous, homogeneous, isotropic and strength parameter enhancement, which is defined as reinforcement body. On the basis of elasticity, the composite and the reinforcement are analyzed, Based on strengthening theory of surrounding rock and displacement equivalent conditions, the expression of reinforcement body strength parameters and mechanical parameters is deduced. The example calculation shows that the theoretical results are close to the results of the Jia-mei Gao[9], however, closer to the results of FLAC3D numerical simulation, it is proved that the model and surrounding rock reinforcement body theory are reasonable. the model is easy to analyze and calculate, provides a new way for determining reasonable bolt support parameters, can also provides reference for the stability analysis of underground cavern bolting support.

Trajectories and Maneuvers of Surrounding Vehicles with Panoramic Camera Arrays

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dueholm, Jacob Velling; Kristoffersen, Miklas Strøm; Satzoda, Ravi K.

2016-01-01

Vision-based research for intelligent vehicles have traditionally focused on specific regions around a vehicle, such as a front looking camera for, e.g., lane estimation. Traffic scenes are complex and vital information could be lost in unobserved regions. This paper proposes a framework that uses...... four visual sensors for a full surround view of a vehicle in order to achieve an understanding of surrounding vehicle behaviors. The framework will assist the analysis of naturalistic driving studies by automating the task of data reduction of the observed trajectories. To this end, trajectories...... are estimated using a vehicle detector together with a multiperspective optimized tracker in each view. The trajectories are transformed to a common ground plane, where they are associated between perspectives and analyzed to reveal tendencies around the ego-vehicle. The system is tested on sequences from 2.5 h...

Inferring motion and location using WLAN RSSI

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kavitha Muthukrishnan, K.; van der Zwaag, B.J.; Havinga, Paul J.M.; Fuller, R.; Koutsoukos, X.

2009-01-01

We present novel algorithms to infer movement by making use of inherent fluctuations in the received signal strengths from existing WLAN infrastructure. We evaluate the performance of the presented algorithms based on classification metrics such as recall and precision using annotated traces

Inferring genetic interactions from comparative fitness data.

Science.gov (United States)

Crona, Kristina; Gavryushkin, Alex; Greene, Devin; Beerenwinkel, Niko

2017-12-20

Darwinian fitness is a central concept in evolutionary biology. In practice, however, it is hardly possible to measure fitness for all genotypes in a natural population. Here, we present quantitative tools to make inferences about epistatic gene interactions when the fitness landscape is only incompletely determined due to imprecise measurements or missing observations. We demonstrate that genetic interactions can often be inferred from fitness rank orders, where all genotypes are ordered according to fitness, and even from partial fitness orders. We provide a complete characterization of rank orders that imply higher order epistasis. Our theory applies to all common types of gene interactions and facilitates comprehensive investigations of diverse genetic interactions. We analyzed various genetic systems comprising HIV-1, the malaria-causing parasite Plasmodium vivax , the fungus Aspergillus niger , and the TEM-family of β-lactamase associated with antibiotic resistance. For all systems, our approach revealed higher order interactions among mutations.

The NIFTY way of Bayesian signal inference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Selig, Marco

2014-01-01

We introduce NIFTY, 'Numerical Information Field Theory', a software package for the development of Bayesian signal inference algorithms that operate independently from any underlying spatial grid and its resolution. A large number of Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods for 1D signal reconstruction, 2D imaging, as well as 3D tomography, appear formally similar, but one often finds individualized implementations that are neither flexible nor easily transferable. Signal inference in the framework of NIFTY can be done in an abstract way, such that algorithms, prototyped in 1D, can be applied to real world problems in higher-dimensional settings. NIFTY as a versatile library is applicable and already has been applied in 1D, 2D, 3D and spherical settings. A recent application is the D 3 PO algorithm targeting the non-trivial task of denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations in high energy astronomy

The NIFTy way of Bayesian signal inference

Science.gov (United States)

Selig, Marco

2014-12-01

We introduce NIFTy, "Numerical Information Field Theory", a software package for the development of Bayesian signal inference algorithms that operate independently from any underlying spatial grid and its resolution. A large number of Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods for 1D signal reconstruction, 2D imaging, as well as 3D tomography, appear formally similar, but one often finds individualized implementations that are neither flexible nor easily transferable. Signal inference in the framework of NIFTy can be done in an abstract way, such that algorithms, prototyped in 1D, can be applied to real world problems in higher-dimensional settings. NIFTy as a versatile library is applicable and already has been applied in 1D, 2D, 3D and spherical settings. A recent application is the D3PO algorithm targeting the non-trivial task of denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations in high energy astronomy.

Working with sample data exploration and inference

CERN Document Server

Chaffe-Stengel, Priscilla

2014-01-01

Managers and analysts routinely collect and examine key performance measures to better understand their operations and make good decisions. Being able to render the complexity of operations data into a coherent account of significant events requires an understanding of how to work well with raw data and to make appropriate inferences. Although some statistical techniques for analyzing data and making inferences are sophisticated and require specialized expertise, there are methods that are understandable and applicable by anyone with basic algebra skills and the support of a spreadsheet package. By applying these fundamental methods themselves rather than turning over both the data and the responsibility for analysis and interpretation to an expert, managers will develop a richer understanding and potentially gain better control over their environment. This text is intended to describe these fundamental statistical techniques to managers, data analysts, and students. Statistical analysis of sample data is enh...

Bayesianism and inference to the best explanation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valeriano IRANZO

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Bayesianism and Inference to the best explanation (IBE are two different models of inference. Recently there has been some debate about the possibility of “bayesianizing” IBE. Firstly I explore several alternatives to include explanatory considerations in Bayes’s Theorem. Then I distinguish two different interpretations of prior probabilities: “IBE-Bayesianism” (IBE-Bay and “frequentist-Bayesianism” (Freq-Bay. After detailing the content of the latter, I propose a rule for assessing the priors. I also argue that Freq-Bay: (i endorses a role for explanatory value in the assessment of scientific hypotheses; (ii avoids a purely subjectivist reading of prior probabilities; and (iii fits better than IBE-Bayesianism with two basic facts about science, i.e., the prominent role played by empirical testing and the existence of many scientific theories in the past that failed to fulfil their promises and were subsequently abandoned.

Phylodynamic Inference with Kernel ABC and Its Application to HIV Epidemiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Poon, Art F Y

2015-09-01

The shapes of phylogenetic trees relating virus populations are determined by the adaptation of viruses within each host, and by the transmission of viruses among hosts. Phylodynamic inference attempts to reverse this flow of information, estimating parameters of these processes from the shape of a virus phylogeny reconstructed from a sample of genetic sequences from the epidemic. A key challenge to phylodynamic inference is quantifying the similarity between two trees in an efficient and comprehensive way. In this study, I demonstrate that a new distance measure, based on a subset tree kernel function from computational linguistics, confers a significant improvement over previous measures of tree shape for classifying trees generated under different epidemiological scenarios. Next, I incorporate this kernel-based distance measure into an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework for phylodynamic inference. ABC bypasses the need for an analytical solution of model likelihood, as it only requires the ability to simulate data from the model. I validate this "kernel-ABC" method for phylodynamic inference by estimating parameters from data simulated under a simple epidemiological model. Results indicate that kernel-ABC attained greater accuracy for parameters associated with virus transmission than leading software on the same data sets. Finally, I apply the kernel-ABC framework to study a recent outbreak of a recombinant HIV subtype in China. Kernel-ABC provides a versatile framework for phylodynamic inference because it can fit a broader range of models than methods that rely on the computation of exact likelihoods. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Seismic Tomography of the Arabian-Eurasian Collision Zone and Surrounding Areas

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Toksoz, M. N; Van der Hilst, Robert D; Sun, Youshun; Gulen, Levent; Kalafat, Dogan; Kuleli, Huseyin S; Li, Chang; Zhang, Haijiang

2008-01-01

... and surrounding areas, including Iran, Arabia, Eastern Turkey, and the Caucasus. The Arabian-Eurasian plate boundary is a complex tectonic zone shaped by continent-continent collision processes...

Indirect inference with time series observed with error

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rossi, Eduardo; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

estimation. We propose to solve this inconsistency by jointly estimating the nuisance and the structural parameters. Under standard assumptions, this estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. A condition for the identification of ARMA plus noise is obtained. The proposed methodology is used......We analyze the properties of the indirect inference estimator when the observed series are contaminated by measurement error. We show that the indirect inference estimates are asymptotically biased when the nuisance parameters of the measurement error distribution are neglected in the indirect...... to estimate the parameters of continuous-time stochastic volatility models with auxiliary specifications based on realized volatility measures. Monte Carlo simulations shows the bias reduction of the indirect estimates obtained when the microstructure noise is explicitly modeled. Finally, an empirical...