WorldWideScience

Sample records for surrogate cold-wet weather

  1. Why Cold-Wet Makes One Feel Chilled: A Literature Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-06-01

    froid et mouill6. On examine aussi l’effet de la radiation solaire , l’interaction entre la peau at l’humidit6, entre la peau et la temp~rature de mgme...the effect of solar radiation the interaction of skin and humidity and skin and temperature and other postulations for the cold-wet sensation. It...recognize the limitations of chamber studies in differentiating between dry-cold and wet-cold. The chamber does not simulate radiation or

  2. Assessment of long-term monthly and seasonal trends of warm (cold), wet (dry) spells in Kansas, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dokoohaki, H.; Anandhi, A.

    2013-12-01

    A few recent studies have focused on trends in rainfall, temperature, and frost indicators at different temporal scales using centennial weather station data in Kansas; our study supplements this work by assessing the changes in spell indicators in Kansas. These indicators provide the duration between temperature-based (warm and cold) and precipitation-based (wet and dry) spells. For wet (dry) spell calculations, a wet day is defined as a day with precipitation ≥1 mm, and a dry day is defined as one with precipitation ≤1 mm. For warm (cold) spell calculations, a warm day is defined as a day with maximum temperature >90th percentile of daily maximum temperature, and a cold day is defined as a day with minimum temperature spell indicators are calculated: Average Wet Spell Length (AWSL), Dry Spell Length (ADSL), Average Warm Spell Days (AWSD) and Average Cold Spell Days (ACSD) are calculated. Data were provided from 23 centennial weather stations across Kansas, and all calculations were done for four time periods (through 1919, 1920-1949, 1950-1979, and 1980-2009). The definitions and software provided by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were adapted for application to Kansas. The long- and short-term trends in these indices were analyzed at monthly and seasonal timescales. Monthly results indicate that ADSL is decreasing and AWSL is increasing throughout the state. AWSD and ACSD both showed an overall decreasing trend, but AWSD trends were variable during the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Results of seasonal analysis revealed that the fall season recorded the greatest increasing trend for ACSD and the greatest decreasing trend for AWSD across the whole state and during all time periods. Similarly, the greatest increasing and decreasing trends occurred in winter for AWSL and ADSL, respectively. These variations can be important indicators of climatic change that may not be represented in mean conditions. Detailed geographical

  3. Preferred habitat of breeding birds may be compromised by climate change: unexpected effects of an exceptionally cold, wet spring.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J Whitehouse

    Full Text Available Previous studies of the consequences for breeding birds of climate change have explored how their populations may respond to increasing temperatures. However, few have considered the likely outcome of predicted extreme conditions and the relative vulnerability of populations in different habitats. Here, we compare phenology and breeding success in great tits and blue tits over a 10 year period, including the extremely harsh conditions during spring 2012, at three sites in eastern England--mixed deciduous woodland, riparian and urban habitat. Production, measured as brood biomass, was significantly lower in 2012 compared with the previous 9 years, with the decrease in productivity relatively greatest in woodland habitat. Production was related to hatch delay, i.e. birds not initiating incubation immediately after clutch completion, which was more common in 2012 than in previous years. The best predictor of hatch delay was daytime temperature (not nighttime minimum temperature and rainfall, which convincingly reflected low growth and activity of caterpillar prey. We found that birds breeding in riparian and urban habitats were less vulnerable to the extremes of weather than those breeding in mixed deciduous woodland.

  4. A cold-wet middle-latitude environment on Mars during the Hesperian-Amazonian transition: Evidence from northern Arabia valleys and paleolakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Sharon A.; Howard, Alan D.; Moore, Jeffrey M.; Grant, John A.

    2016-09-01

    The growing inventory of post-Noachian fluvial valleys may represent a late, widespread episode of aqueous activity on Mars, contrary to the paradigm that fluvial activity largely ceased around the Noachian-Hesperian boundary. Fresh shallow valleys (FSVs) are widespread from ~30 to 45° in both hemispheres with a high concentration in northern Arabia Terra. Valleys in northern Arabia Terra characteristically start abruptly on steeper slopes and terminate in topographic depressions at elevations corresponding to model-predicted lake levels. Longer valley systems flowed into and out of chains of paleolakes. Minimum discharges based on the dimensions of the incised channel assuming medium to coarse sand-size grains ranges from tens to hundreds of m3 s-1, respectively, consistent with formation via snowmelt from surface or sub-ice flows. Hydrologic calculations indicate the valleys likely formed in hundreds of years or less, and crater statistics constrain the timing of fluvial activity to between the Hesperian and middle Amazonian. Several craters with channels extending radially outward supports evidence for overflow of interior crater lakes possibly fed by groundwater. Most FSVs occur away from young impact craters which make an association with impact processes improbable. The widespread occurrence of FSVs along with their similar morphology and shared modest state of degradation is consistent with most forming during a global interval of favorable climate, perhaps contemporaneous with alluvial fan formation in equatorial and midlatitudes. Evidence for a snowmelt-based hydrology and considerable depths of water on the landscape in Arabia supports a cold, wet, and possibly habitable environment late in Martian history.

  5. Influences of extreme weather, climate and pesticide use on invertebrates in cereal fields over 42 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewald, Julie A; Wheatley, Christopher J; Aebischer, Nicholas J; Moreby, Stephen J; Duffield, Simon J; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Morecroft, Michael B

    2015-11-01

    Cereal fields are central to balancing food production and environmental health in the face of climate change. Within them, invertebrates provide key ecosystem services. Using 42 years of monitoring data collected in southern England, we investigated the sensitivity and resilience of invertebrates in cereal fields to extreme weather events and examined the effect of long-term changes in temperature, rainfall and pesticide use on invertebrate abundance. Of the 26 invertebrate groups examined, eleven proved sensitive to extreme weather events. Average abundance increased in hot/dry years and decreased in cold/wet years for Araneae, Cicadellidae, adult Heteroptera, Thysanoptera, Braconidae, Enicmus and Lathridiidae. The average abundance of Delphacidae, Cryptophagidae and Mycetophilidae increased in both hot/dry and cold/wet years relative to other years. The abundance of all 10 groups usually returned to their long-term trend within a year after the extreme event. For five of them, sensitivity to cold/wet events was lowest (translating into higher abundances) at locations with a westerly aspect. Some long-term trends in invertebrate abundance correlated with temperature and rainfall, indicating that climate change may affect them. However, pesticide use was more important in explaining the trends, suggesting that reduced pesticide use would mitigate the effects of climate change.

  6. Birds as biodiversity surrogates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Frank Wugt; Bladt, Jesper Stentoft; Balmford, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    1. Most biodiversity is still unknown, and therefore, priority areas for conservation typically are identified based on the presence of surrogates, or indicator groups. Birds are commonly used as surrogates of biodiversity owing to the wide availability of relevant data and their broad popular...... appeal. However, some studies have found birds to perform relatively poorly as indicators. We therefore ask how the effectiveness of this approach can be improved by supplementing data on birds with information on other taxa. 2. Here, we explore two strategies using (i) species data for other taxa...... areas identified on the basis of birds alone performed well in representing overall species diversity where birds were relatively speciose compared to the other taxa in the data sets. Adding species data for one taxon increased surrogate effectiveness better than adding genus- and family-level data...

  7. Plutonium radiation surrogate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Michael I [Dublin, CA

    2010-02-02

    A self-contained source of gamma-ray and neutron radiation suitable for use as a radiation surrogate for weapons-grade plutonium is described. The source generates a radiation spectrum similar to that of weapons-grade plutonium at 5% energy resolution between 59 and 2614 keV, but contains no special nuclear material and emits little .alpha.-particle radiation. The weapons-grade plutonium radiation surrogate also emits neutrons having fluxes commensurate with the gamma-radiation intensities employed.

  8. Developments in Surrogating Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans van Dormolen

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, I would like to talk about the developments in surrogating methods for preservation. My main focus will be on the technical aspects of preservation surrogates. This means that I will tell you something about my job as Quality Manager Microfilming for the Netherlands’ national preservation program, Metamorfoze, which is coordinated by the National Library. I am responsible for the quality of the preservation microfilms, which are produced for Metamorfoze. Firstly, I will elaborate on developments in preservation methods in relation to the following subjects: · Preservation microfilms · Scanning of preservation microfilms · Preservation scanning · Computer Output Microfilm. In the closing paragraphs of this paper, I would like to tell you something about the methylene blue test. This is an important test for long-term storage of preservation microfilms. Also, I will give you a brief report on the Cellulose Acetate Microfilm Conference that was held in the British Library in London, May 2005.

  9. Surrogate Modeling for Geometry Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rojas Larrazabal, Marielba de la Caridad; Abraham, Yonas; Holzwarth, Natalie;

    2009-01-01

    A new approach for optimizing the nuclear geometry of an atomic system is described. Instead of the original expensive objective function (energy functional), a small number of simpler surrogates is used.......A new approach for optimizing the nuclear geometry of an atomic system is described. Instead of the original expensive objective function (energy functional), a small number of simpler surrogates is used....

  10. Surrogate Endpoints in Suicide Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wortzel, Hal S.; Gutierrez, Peter M.; Homaifar, Beeta Y.; Breshears, Ryan E.; Harwood, Jeri E.

    2010-01-01

    Surrogate endpoints frequently substitute for rare outcomes in research. The ability to learn about completed suicides by investigating more readily available and proximate outcomes, such as suicide attempts, has obvious appeal. However, concerns with surrogates from the statistical science perspective exist, and mounting evidence from…

  11. Characterization of Cold-Wet Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-06-01

    0a000. 30 Precpltation 20’- •O0 SOL 1 01 to 00 -,s -to -5 0 5 Temperature (Deg.C.) Fro.m1 LiquidO Time (X) 40 000 o0 N Prelpitatlm 0 0 * 0 0 II to 0 -15...classification of Title. Abstract, Keywords) DOCUMENT CONTROL DATA (Security classification of title, body of abstract and indexing ennotition must be

  12. Amplified mid-latitude planetary waves favour particular regional weather extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Screen, James A.; Simmonds, Ian

    2014-08-01

    There has been an ostensibly large number of extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes during the past decade. An open question that is critically important for scientists and policy makers is whether any such increase in weather extremes is natural or anthropogenic in origin. One mechanism proposed to explain the increased frequency of extreme weather events is the amplification of mid-latitude atmospheric planetary waves. Disproportionately large warming in the northern polar regions compared with mid-latitudes--and associated weakening of the north-south temperature gradient--may favour larger amplitude planetary waves, although observational evidence for this remains inconclusive. A better understanding of the role of planetary waves in causing mid-latitude weather extremes is essential for assessing the potential environmental and socio-economic impacts of future planetary wave changes. Here we show that months of extreme weather over mid-latitudes are commonly accompanied by significantly amplified quasi-stationary mid-tropospheric planetary waves. Conversely, months of near-average weather over mid-latitudes are often accompanied by significantly attenuated waves. Depending on geographical region, certain types of extreme weather (for example, hot, cold, wet, dry) are more strongly related to wave amplitude changes than others. The findings suggest that amplification of quasi-stationary waves preferentially increases the probabilities of heat waves in western North America and central Asia, cold outbreaks in eastern North America, droughts in central North America, Europe and central Asia, and wet spells in western Asia.

  13. Wacky Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabarre, Amy; Gulino, Jacqueline

    2013-01-01

    What do a leaf blower, water hose, fan, and ice cubes have in common? Ask the students who participated in an integrative science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (I-STEM) education unit, "Wacky Weather," and they will tell say "fun and severe weather"--words one might not have expected! The purpose of the unit…

  14. Wacky Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabarre, Amy; Gulino, Jacqueline

    2013-01-01

    What do a leaf blower, water hose, fan, and ice cubes have in common? Ask the students who participated in an integrative science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (I-STEM) education unit, "Wacky Weather," and they will tell say "fun and severe weather"--words one might not have expected! The purpose of the unit…

  15. Revisiting algorithms for generating surrogate time series

    CERN Document Server

    Raeth, C; Papadakis, I E; Brinkmann, W

    2011-01-01

    The method of surrogates is one of the key concepts of nonlinear data analysis. Here, we demonstrate that commonly used algorithms for generating surrogates often fail to generate truly linear time series. Rather, they create surrogate realizations with Fourier phase correlations leading to non-detections of nonlinearities. We argue that reliable surrogates can only be generated, if one tests separately for static and dynamic nonlinearities.

  16. Mirador - Weather

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Earth Science data access made simple. Our weather system includes the dynamics of the atmosphere and its interaction with the oceans and land. The improvement of...

  17. Extreme weather-related health needs of people who are homeless.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cusack, Lynette; van Loon, Antonia; Kralik, Debbie; Arbon, Paul; Gilbert, Sandy

    2013-01-01

    To identify the extreme weather-related health needs of homeless people and the response by homeless service providers in Adelaide, South Australia, a five-phased qualitative interpretive study was undertaken. (1) Literature review, followed by semi-structured interviews with 25 homeless people to ascertain health needs during extreme weather events. (2) Identification of homeless services. (3) Semi-structured interviews with 16 homeless service providers regarding their response to the health needs of homeless people at times of extreme weather. (4) Gap analysis. (5) Suggestions for policy and planning. People experiencing homelessness describe adverse health impacts more from extreme cold, than extreme hot weather. They considered their health suffered more, because of wet bedding, clothes and shoes. They felt more depressed and less able to keep themselves well during cold, wet winters. However, homeless service providers were more focussed on planning for extra service responses during times of extreme heat rather than extreme cold. Even though a city may be considered to have a temperate climate with a history of very hot summers, primary homeless populations have health needs during winter months. The experiences and needs of homeless people should be considered in extreme weather policy and when planning responses.

  18. Surrogate Analysis and Index Developer (SAID) tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domanski, Marian M.; Straub, Timothy D.; Landers, Mark N.

    2015-10-01

    The use of acoustic and other parameters as surrogates for suspended-sediment concentrations (SSC) in rivers has been successful in multiple applications across the Nation. Tools to process and evaluate the data are critical to advancing the operational use of surrogates along with the subsequent development of regression models from which real-time sediment concentrations can be made available to the public. Recent developments in both areas are having an immediate impact on surrogate research and on surrogate monitoring sites currently (2015) in operation.

  19. Stormy Weather

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    Inspired by the deep abyss of the unknown; a constant source for investigation and discovery, heating and destruction, all simultaneously. Beneath the deep darkness, millions of species vibrantly thrive in another universe wholly untouched by human hands, though affected by their choices. The weathered pieces and people associated with seaside villages, the deep wrinkles that tell a story of one's life and experiences like

  20. Imaging Seeker Surrogate for IRCM evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schleijpen, H.M.A.; Carpenter, S.R.; Mellier, B.; Dimmeler, A.

    2007-01-01

    NATO-SCI-139 and its predecessor groups have more than a decade of history in the evaluation and recommendation of EO and IR Countermeasures against anti-aircraft missiles. Surrogate Seekers have proven to be a valuable tool for this work. The use of surrogate seekers in international co-operations

  1. 77 FR 34788 - Surrogate Foreign Corporations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-12

    ... Internal Revenue Service 26 CFR Part 1 RIN 1545-BF47 Surrogate Foreign Corporations AGENCY: Internal... regulations regarding whether a foreign corporation is treated as a surrogate foreign corporation. The final ] regulations affect certain domestic corporations and partnerships (and certain parties related thereto),...

  2. Surrogate Guderley Test Problem Definition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramsey, Scott D. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Shashkov, Mikhail J. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-07-06

    The surrogate Guderley problem (SGP) is a 'spherical shock tube' (or 'spherical driven implosion') designed to ease the notoriously subtle initialization of the true Guderley problem, while still maintaining a high degree of fidelity. In this problem (similar to the Guderley problem), an infinitely strong shock wave forms and converges in one-dimensional (1D) cylindrical or spherical symmetry through a polytropic gas with arbitrary adiabatic index {gamma}, uniform density {rho}{sub 0}, zero velocity, and negligible pre-shock pressure and specific internal energy (SIE). This shock proceeds to focus on the point or axis of symmetry at r = 0 (resulting in ostensibly infinite pressure, velocity, etc.) and reflect back out into the incoming perturbed gas.

  3. Use of Surrogate end points in HTA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mangiapane, Sandra

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available The different actors involved in health system decision-making and regulation have to deal with the question which are valid parameters to assess the health value of health technologies.So called surrogate endpoints represent in the best case preliminary steps in the casual chain leading to the relevant outcome (e. g. mortality, morbidity and are not usually directly perceptible by patients. Surrogate endpoints are not only used in trials of pharmaceuticals but also in studies of other technologies. Their use in the assessment of the benefit of a health technology is however problematic. In this report we intend to answer the following research questions: Which criteria need to be fulfilled for a surrogate parameter to be considered a valid endpoint? Which methods have been described in the literature for the assessment of the validity of surrogate endpoints? Which methodological recommendations concerning the use of surrogate endpoints have been made by international HTA agencies? Which place has been given to surrogate endpoints in international and German HTA reports? For this purpose, we choose three different approaches. Firstly, we conduct a review of the methodological literature dealing with the issue of surrogate endpoints and their validation. Secondly, we analyse current methodological guidelines of HTA agencies members of the International network of agencies for Health Technology Assessment (INAHTA as well as of agencies concerned with assessments for reimbursement purposes. Finally, we analyse the outcome parameter used in a sample of HTA reports available for the public. The analysis of methodological guidelines shows a very cautious position of HTA institutions regarding the use of surrogate endpoints in technology assessment. Surrogate endpoints have not been prominently used in HTA reports. None of the analysed reports based its conclusions solely on the results of surrogate endpoints. The analysis of German HTA reports shows a

  4. On Using Surrogates with Genetic Programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrandt, Torsten; Branke, Jürgen

    2015-01-01

    One way to accelerate evolutionary algorithms with expensive fitness evaluations is to combine them with surrogate models. Surrogate models are efficiently computable approximations of the fitness function, derived by means of statistical or machine learning techniques from samples of fully evaluated solutions. But these models usually require a numerical representation, and therefore cannot be used with the tree representation of genetic programming (GP). In this paper, we present a new way to use surrogate models with GP. Rather than using the genotype directly as input to the surrogate model, we propose using a phenotypic characterization. This phenotypic characterization can be computed efficiently and allows us to define approximate measures of equivalence and similarity. Using a stochastic, dynamic job shop scenario as an example of simulation-based GP with an expensive fitness evaluation, we show how these ideas can be used to construct surrogate models and improve the convergence speed and solution quality of GP.

  5. The incidence of the sudden infant death syndrome in relation to climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deacon, E. L.; Williams, A. L.

    1982-09-01

    Incidences of the sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) for eight metropolitan communities in U.S.A. are shown to correlate strongly with the mean percentages of cold-wet weather experienced by these places in the seven months centred on January. For white infants aged 4 51 weeks at death, the incidence varies from about one per thousand live births in the more favourable climates to around two per thousand under the less favourable conditions of northwest U.S.A. Incidences are higher for the nonwhite infants but exhibit a similar variation with climate. To be able to extend the study to other countries for which cold-wet weather percentages are not available, a surrogate cold-wet weather index is developed, based on mean cold-season temperature, insolation and number of days with precipitation. Australian and British SIDS incidences related to the surrogate cold-wet weather index exhibit a variation parallel to that for U.S.A. but somewhat higher over the whole range. The incidences used in this study are from the more extensive investigations in which diagnosis was made as a result of thorough postmortem examination.

  6. Parents and children: "surrogate" paradigm of modernity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, Archimandrite; Akhaladze, Vakhtang

    2011-06-01

    The article provides an overview of surrogate motherhood--one of many currently available forms of Assisted Reproductive Technologies for couples who find themselves unable to conceive a child on their own. Within the years of its existence surrogate motherhood managed to accumulate lots of bioethical problems, paradoxes, dilemmas and collisions. Author represents some of them. Also the legal, moral and religious implications of surrogacy are addressed. The religious perspective from the Orthodox Christian, Catholic, Jewish, Hinduism, and Islamic points of view are provided. The author concludes that surrogate motherhood is not only the answer to childlessness but it supports metamorphosis of traditional attitude towards such human value as it is a family.

  7. Surrogate endpoints and emerging surrogate endpoints for risk reduction of cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasnake, Crystal M; Trumbo, Paula R; Heinonen, Therese M

    2008-02-01

    This article reviews surrogate endpoints and emerging biomarkers that were discussed at the annual "Cardiovascular Biomarkers and Surrogate Endpoints" symposium cosponsored by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Montreal Heart Institute. The FDA's Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition (CFSAN) uses surrogate endpoints in its scientific review of a substance/disease relationship for a health claim. CFSAN currently recognizes three validated surrogate endpoints: blood pressure, blood total cholesterol, and blood low-density lipoprotein (LDL) concentration in its review of a health claim for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Numerous potential surrogate endpoints of CVD are being evaluated as the pathophysiology of heart disease is becoming better understood. However, these emerging biomarkers need to be validated as surrogate endpoints before they are used by CFSAN in the evaluation of a CVD health claim.

  8. Surrogate mothers: whose baby is it?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, B

    1984-01-01

    Advances in medical technology offer infertile couples who wish to raise children alternatives to adoption. The increasing number of surrogate mother contracts creates a myriad of legal issues surrounding the rights of the natural mother, the natural father and the child that is produced. In this Article, the Author discusses the legal issues and rights of the parties under the Constitution, the surrogate contract and family law principles. The Author proposes that courts should consider a surrogate contract as a revocable prebirth agreement which allows the natural mother to keep the child if she chooses. In addition, the Author advocates an interpretation of the statutes forbidding baby selling that would prohibit surrogate contracts in which the mother is paid a fee for the child.

  9. Neutron capture cross sections from Surrogate measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scielzo N.D.

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The prospects for determining cross sections for compound-nuclear neutron-capture reactions from Surrogate measurements are investigated. Calculations as well as experimental results are presented that test the Weisskopf-Ewing approximation, which is employed in most analyses of Surrogate data. It is concluded that, in general, one has to go beyond this approximation in order to obtain (n,γ cross sections of sufficient accuracy for most astrophysical and nuclear-energy applications.

  10. Monthly Weather Review

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Supplements to the Monthly Weather Review publication. The Weather Bureau published the Monthly weather review Supplement irregularly from 1914 to 1949. The...

  11. Weather Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacmeister, Julio T.

    Awareness of weather and concern about weather in the proximate future certainly must have accompanied the emergence of human self-consciousness. Although weather is a basic idea in human existence, it is difficult to define precisely.

  12. Surrogates for herbicide removal in stormwater biofilters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kefeng; Deletic, Ana; Page, Declan; McCarthy, David T

    2015-09-15

    Real time monitoring of suitable surrogate parameters are critical to the validation of any water treatment processes, and is of particularly high importance for validation of natural stormwater treatment systems. In this study, potential surrogates for herbicide removal in stormwater biofilters (also known as stormwater bio-retention or rain-gardens) were assessed using field challenge tests and matched laboratory column experiments. Differential UV absorbance at 254mn (ΔUVA254), total phosphorus (ΔTP), dissolved phosphorus (ΔDP), total nitrogen (ΔTN), ammonia (ΔNH3), nitrate and nitrite (ΔNO3+NO2), dissolved organic carbon (ΔDOC) and total suspended solids (ΔTSS) were compared with glyphosate, atrazine, simazine and prometryn removal rates. The influence of different challenge conditions on the performance of each surrogate was studied. Differential TP was significantly and linearly related to glyphosate reduction (R(2) = 0.75-0.98, P herbicides were reliable under normal and challenge dry conditions, but weaker correlations were observed under challenge wet conditions. Of those tested, ΔTP is the most promising surrogate for glyphosate removal and ΔUVA254 is a suitable surrogate for triazines removal in stormwater biofilters. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Weather in Your Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kannegieter, Sandy; Wirkler, Linda

    Facts and activities related to weather and meteorology are presented in this unit. Separate sections cover the following topics: (1) the water cycle; (2) clouds; (3) the Beaufort Scale for rating the speed and force of wind; (4) the barometer; (5) weather prediction; (6) fall weather in Iowa (sleet, frost, and fog); (7) winter weather in Iowa…

  14. Nitrate Salt Surrogate Blending Scoping Test Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anast, Kurt Roy [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-11-13

    Test blending equipment identified in the “Engineering Options Assessment Report: Nitrate Salt Waste Stream Processing”. Determine if the equipment will provide adequate mixing of zeolite and surrogate salt/Swheat stream; optimize equipment type and operational sequencing; impact of baffles and inserts on mixing performance; and means of validating mixing performance

  15. Videotrees: Improving video surrogate presentation using hierarchy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, Michel; Heeren, Willemijn; Dijk, van Betsy

    2008-01-01

    As the amount of available video content increases, so does the need for better ways of browsing all this material. Because the nature of video makes it hard to process, the need arises for adequate surrogates for video that can readily be skimmed and browsed. In this paper, the effects of the use o

  16. Combustion Kinetic Studies of Gasolines and Surrogates

    KAUST Repository

    Javed, Tamour

    2016-11-01

    Future thrusts for gasoline engine development can be broadly summarized into two categories: (i) efficiency improvements in conventional spark ignition engines, and (ii) development of advance compression ignition (ACI) concepts. Efficiency improvements in conventional spark ignition engines requires downsizing (and turbocharging) which may be achieved by using high octane gasolines, whereas, low octane gasolines fuels are anticipated for ACI concepts. The current work provides the essential combustion kinetic data, targeting both thrusts, that is needed to develop high fidelity gasoline surrogate mechanisms and surrogate complexity guidelines. Ignition delay times of a wide range of certified gasolines and surrogates are reported here. These measurements were performed in shock tubes and rapid compression machines over a wide range of experimental conditions (650 – 1250 K, 10 – 40 bar) relevant to internal combustion engines. Using the measured the data and chemical kinetic analyses, the surrogate complexity requirements for these gasolines in homogeneous environments are specified. For the discussions presented here, gasolines are classified into three categories: (i)\\tLow octane gasolines including Saudi Aramco’s light naphtha fuel (anti-knock index, AKI = (RON + MON)/2 = 64; Sensitivity (S) = RON – MON = 1), certified FACE (Fuels for Advanced Combustion Engines) gasoline I and J (AKI ~ 70, S = 0.7 and 3 respectively), and their Primary Reference Fuels (PRF, mixtures of n-heptane and iso-octane) and multi-component surrogates. (ii)\\t Mid octane gasolines including FACE A and C (AKI ~ 84, S ~ 0 and 1 respectively) and their PRF surrogates. Laser absorption measurements of intermediate and product species formed during gasoline/surrogate oxidation are also reported. (iii)\\t A wide range of n-heptane/iso-octane/toluene (TPRF) blends to adequately represent the octane and sensitivity requirements of high octane gasolines including FACE gasoline F and G

  17. A novel surrogate index for hepatic insulin resistance.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Vangipurapu, J

    2011-03-01

    In epidemiological and genetic studies surrogate indices are needed to investigate insulin resistance in different insulin-sensitive tissues. Our objective was to develop a surrogate index for hepatic insulin resistance.

  18. Land Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — METAR is the international standard code format for hourly surface weather observations. The acronym roughly translates from French as Aviation Routine Weather...

  19. Project Weather and Water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Pal J. Kirkeby

    2000-01-01

    Introduces Project Weather and Water with the goal of developing and testing ideas of how to implement weather topics and water physics in an integrated way. Discusses teacher preparation, implementation, and evaluation of this project. (ASK)

  20. Pilot Weather Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Aviation weather reports relayed from pilots to FAA air traffic controllers or National Weather Service personnel. Elements include sky cover, turbulence, wind...

  1. Natural Weathering Exposure Station

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Corps of Engineers' Treat Island Natural Weathering Exposure Station is a long-term natural weathering facility used to study concrete durability. Located on the...

  2. Surface Weather Observations Hourly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Standard hourly observations taken at Weather Bureau/National Weather Service offices and airports throughout the United States. Hourly observations began during the...

  3. Surface Weather Observing Manuals

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Manuals and instructions for taking weather observations. Includes the annual Weather Bureau 'Instructions for Preparing Meteorological Forms...' and early airways...

  4. Daily Weather Records

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These daily weather records were compiled from a subset of stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN)-Daily dataset. A weather record is...

  5. Winter Weather Emergencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severe winter weather can lead to health and safety challenges. You may have to cope with Cold related health problems, including ... there are no guarantees of safety during winter weather emergencies, you can take actions to protect yourself. ...

  6. National Convective Weather Diagnostic

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current convective hazards identified by the National Convective Weather Detection algorithm. The National Convective Weather Diagnostic (NCWD) is an automatically...

  7. Internet Weather Source

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (NWS) National Telecommunications Gateway provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its...

  8. Weather Radar Stations

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — These data represent Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) and Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) weather radar stations within the US. The NEXRAD radar stations are...

  9. The power of weather

    OpenAIRE

    Christian Huurman; Francesco Ravazzolo; Chen Zhou

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the predictive power of weather for electricity prices in day ahead markets in real time. We find that next-day weather forecasts improve the forecast accuracy of Scandinavian day-ahead electricity prices substantially in terms of point forecasts, suggesting that weather forecasts can price the weather premium. This improvement strengthens the confidence in the forecasting model, which results in high center-mass predictive densities. In density forecast, such a predictive...

  10. A qualitative investigation of selecting surrogate decision-makers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Edwards, S.J.L.; Brown, P.; Twyman, M.A.; Christie, D.; Rakow, T.

    2011-01-01

    Background Empirical studies of surrogate decision-making tend to assume that surrogates should make only a 'substituted judgement'—that is, judge what the patient would want if they were mentally competent. Objectives To explore what people want in a surrogate decision-maker whom they themselves se

  11. System Reliability Analysis Capability and Surrogate Model Application in RAVEN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rabiti, Cristian; Alfonsi, Andrea; Huang, Dongli; Gleicher, Frederick; Wang, Bei; Adbel-Khalik, Hany S.; Pascucci, Valerio; Smith, Curtis L.

    2015-11-01

    This report collect the effort performed to improve the reliability analysis capabilities of the RAVEN code and explore new opportunity in the usage of surrogate model by extending the current RAVEN capabilities to multi physics surrogate models and construction of surrogate models for high dimensionality fields.

  12. Weather Fundamentals: Meteorology. [Videotape].

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998

    The videos in this educational series, for grades 4-7, help students understand the science behind weather phenomena through dramatic live-action footage, vivid animated graphics, detailed weather maps, and hands-on experiments. This episode (23 minutes) looks at how meteorologists gather and interpret current weather data collected from sources…

  13. Cold-Weather Sports

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Surgery? A Week of Healthy Breakfasts Shyness Cold-Weather Sports KidsHealth > For Teens > Cold-Weather Sports A A A What's in this article? ... Equipment Ahh, winter! Shorter days. Frigid temperatures. Foul weather. What better time to be outdoors? Winter sports ...

  14. Convective Weather Avoidance with Uncertain Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karahan, Sinan; Windhorst, Robert D.

    2009-01-01

    Convective weather events have a disruptive impact on air traffic both in terminal area and in en-route airspaces. In order to make sure that the national air transportation system is safe and efficient, it is essential to respond to convective weather events effectively. Traffic flow control initiatives in response to convective weather include ground delay, airborne delay, miles-in-trail restrictions as well as tactical and strategic rerouting. The rerouting initiatives can potentially increase traffic density and complexity in regions neighboring the convective weather activity. There is a need to perform rerouting in an intelligent and efficient way such that the disruptive effects of rerouting are minimized. An important area of research is to study the interaction of in-flight rerouting with traffic congestion or complexity and developing methods that quantitatively measure this interaction. Furthermore, it is necessary to find rerouting solutions that account for uncertainties in weather forecasts. These are important steps toward managing complexity during rerouting operations, and the paper is motivated by these research questions. An automated system is developed for rerouting air traffic in order to avoid convective weather regions during the 20- minute - 2-hour time horizon. Such a system is envisioned to work in concert with separation assurance (0 - 20-minute time horizon), and longer term air traffic management (2-hours and beyond) to provide a more comprehensive solution to complexity and safety management. In this study, weather is dynamic and uncertain; it is represented as regions of airspace that pilots are likely to avoid. Algorithms are implemented in an air traffic simulation environment to support the research study. The algorithms used are deterministic but periodically revise reroutes to account for weather forecast updates. In contrast to previous studies, in this study convective weather is represented as regions of airspace that pilots

  15. Weather Conditions, Weather Information and Car Crashes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriaan Perrels

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Road traffic safety is the result of a complex interaction of factors, and causes behind road vehicle crashes require different measures to reduce their impacts. This study assesses how strongly the variation in daily winter crash rates associates with weather conditions in Finland. This is done by illustrating trends and spatiotemporal variation in the crash rates, by showing how a GIS application can evidence the association between temporary rises in regional crash rates and the occurrence of bad weather, and with a regression model on crash rate sensitivity to adverse weather conditions. The analysis indicates that a base rate of crashes depending on non-weather factors exists, and some combinations of extreme weather conditions are able to substantially push up crash rates on days with bad weather. Some spatial causation factors, such as variation of geophysical characteristics causing systematic differences in the distributions of weather variables, exist. Yet, even in winter, non-spatial factors are normally more significant. GIS data can support optimal deployment of rescue services and enhance in-depth quantitative analysis by helping to identify the most appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions. However, the supportive role of GIS should not be inferred as existence of highly significant spatial causation.

  16. Surrogate decision making and intellectual virtue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Gregory L

    2014-01-01

    Patients can be harmed by a religiously motivated surrogate decision maker whose decisions are contrary to the standard of care; therefore, surrogate decision making should be held to a high standard. Stewart Eskew and Christopher Meyers proposed a two-part rule for deciding which religiously based decisions to honor: (1) a secular reason condition and (2) a rationality condition. The second condition is based on a coherence theory of rationality, which they claim is accessible, generous, and culturally sensitive. In this article, I will propose strengthening the rationality condition by grounding it in a theory of intellectual virtue, which is both rigorous and culturally sensitive. Copyright 2014 The Journal of Clinical Ethics. All rights reserved.

  17. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program - Weatherization Assistance Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2010-06-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program reduces energy costs for low-income households by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes, while ensuring their health and safety.

  18. The Surrogate Method: Past, Present and Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesher, S R; Bernstein, L A; Burke, J T; Lyles, B F; Clark, R M; Fallon, P; Phair, L

    2008-01-09

    The STARS/LiBerACE collaboration has been exploring the surrogate technique with success in the actinide region. This method uses a direct reaction to measure the decay probability of the same compound nucleus produced via a neutron-induced channel. This paper serves as an overview of these activities. Using the STARS array at 88-inch Cyclotron at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory we have explored the following surrogate reactions: {sup 234}U({alpha}, {alpha}{prime}f), {sup 235}U({sup 3}He, {alpha}f), {sup 236}U({alpha}, {alpha}{prime}f), {sup 238}U ({alpha},{alpha}{prime}f), {sup 238}U({sup 3}He,{alpha}f), {sup 238}U({sup 3}He, tf) surrogates for {sup 233}U(n,f), {sup 233}U(n,f), {sup 235}U(n,f), {sup 237}U(n,f), {sup 236}U(n,f), and {sup 237}Np(n,f), respectively.

  19. [Biomedical Perspective of the Surrogate Motherhood].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jouve de la Barreda, Nicolás

    2017-01-01

    The subrogated motherhood takes place when an embryo created by in vitro fertilization (IVF) technology is implanted in a surrogate, sometimes called a gestational mother, by means a contract with her. It can imply to natural families (woman and man) with or without infertility problems, or to monoparental or biparental families of the same sex. Concerning the origin of the gametes used in the IVF emerges different implications on the genetic relationship of the resulting child with the surrogate and the future parents. The subrogated motherhood was initially considered an option to solve infertility problems. Nevertheless this practice has become a possible and attractive option as a source of economic resources for poor women. The cases of benefit of a pregnancy without mediating a contract are exceptional and they are not properly cases of ″subrogated maternity″ but of ″altruistic maternity″ and must be considered as heterologous in vitro fertilization. In this article are analyzed the medical, genetic and bioethics aspects of this new derivation of the fertilization in vitro. As points of special attention are considered the following questions: Is it the surrogate motherhood used preferably to solve infertility problems? Is not this actually a new form of exploitation of the woman? Does not suppose an attack to the natural family? Does not suppose in addition an attack to the dignity of the human being?

  20. Surrogate formulations for thermal treatment of low-level mixed waste. Part 1: Radiological surrogates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stockdale, J.A.D.; Bostick, W.D.; Hoffmann, D.P. [Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Lee, H.T. [Oak Ridge Associated Universities, TN (United States)

    1994-01-01

    The evaluation and comparison of proposed thermal treatment systems for mixed wastes can be expedited by tests in which the radioactive components of the wastes are replaced by surrogate materials chosen to mimic, as far as is possible, the chemical and physical properties of the radioactive materials of concern. In this work, sponsored by the Mixed Waste Integrated Project of the US Department of Energy, the authors have examined reported experience with such surrogates and suggest a simplified standard list of materials for use in tests of thermal treatment systems. The chief radioactive nuclides of concern in the treatment of mixed wastes are {sup 239}Pu, {sup 238}U, {sup 235}U, {sup 137}Cs, {sup 103}Ru, {sup 99}Tc, and {sup 90}Sr. These nuclides are largely by-products of uranium enrichment, reactor fuel reprocessing, and weapons program activities. Cs, Ru, and Sr all have stable isotopes that can be used as perfect surrogates for the radioactive forms. Technetium exists only in radioactive form, as do plutonium and uranium. If one wishes to preclude radioactive contamination of the thermal treatment system under trial burn, surrogate elements must be chosen for these three. For technetium, the authors suggest the use of natural ruthenium, and for both plutonium and uranium, they recommend cerium. The seven radionuclides listed can therefore be simulated by a surrogate package containing stable isotopes of ruthenium, strontium, cesium, and cerium.

  1. UQ -- Fast Surrogates Key to New Methodologies in an Operational and Research Volcanic Hazard Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, C. G.; Stefanescu, R. E. R.; Patra, A. K.; Bursik, M. I.; Madankan, R.; Pouget, S.; Jones, M.; Singla, P.; Singh, T.; Pitman, E. B.; Morton, D.; Webley, P.

    2014-12-01

    As the decision to construct a hazard map is frequently precipitated by the sudden initiation of activity at a volcano that was previously considered dormant, timely completion of the map is imperative. This prohibits the calculation of probabilities through direct sampling of a numerical ash-transport and dispersion model. In developing a probabilistic forecast for ash cloud locations following an explosive volcanic eruption, we construct a number of possible meta-models (a model of the simulator) to act as fast surrogates for the time-expensive model. We will illustrate the new fast surrogates based on both polynomial chaos and multilevel sparse representations that have allowed us to conduct the Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in a timely fashion. These surrogates allow orders of magnitude improvement in cost associated with UQ, and are likely to have a major impact in many related domains.This work will be part of an operational and research volcanic forecasting system (see the Webley et al companion presentation) moving towards using ensembles of eruption source parameters and Numerical Weather Predictions (NWPs), rather than single deterministic forecasts, to drive the ash cloud forecasting systems. This involves using an Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) as input to an ash transport and dispersion model, such as PUFF, to produce ash cloud predictions, which will be supported by a Decision Support System. Simulation ensembles with different input volcanic source parameters are intelligently chosen to predict the average and higher-order moments of the output correctly.

  2. Benign Weather Modification

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-02

    operational interest in modifying weather to support combat operations increased, ultimately leading to a multi-service effort called PROJECT POPEYE . The goal...This, coupled with the revelations concerning weather modification use in the Vietnam War (PROJECT POPEYE ), was a double blow to weather modification...AWS-TR-74-247, June 1984. Cobb, James T., Jr., et. al. Project Popeye : Final Report. China Lake, CA: Naval Weapons Center, 1967. Langmuir, Irving

  3. Is Weather Chaotic?

    CERN Document Server

    Raidl, A

    1998-01-01

    The correlation dimension and K2-entropy are estimated from meteorological time- series. The results lead us to claim that seasonal variability of weather is under influence of low dimensional dynamics, whereas changes of weather from day to day are governed by high dimensional system(s). Error-doubling time of this system is less than 3 days. We suggest that the outstanding feature of the weather dynamics is deterministic chaos.

  4. Space Weather Laboratory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Space Weather Computational Laboratory is a Unix and PC based modeling and simulation facility devoted to research analysis of naturally occurring electrically...

  5. Space Weather Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Space Weather Analysis archives are model output of ionospheric, thermospheric and magnetospheric particle populations, energies and electrodynamics

  6. Recent Experimental Progress on Surrogate Reactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beausang, Cornelius

    2014-09-01

    Reactions on unstable nuclei are important in a wide variety of nuclear physics scenarios. Cross sections for neutron (or light charged particle) induced reactions on target nuclei spanning the chart of the nuclei are important for nuclear astrophysics (r-process, s-process rp- and p-processes etc.), for nuclear energy generation and for national security applications. Many such reactions occur on short-lived unstable nuclei. Even with the present generation of radioactive beam facilities, many such reactions are difficult, if not impossible, to measure directly. For these reactions, often the surrogate reaction technique provides the only option to provide some experimental guidance for the calculations. The experimental and theoretical techniques required are described in some detail in the recent review article by Escher et al.. Originally introduced in the 1970's the last decade has seen a resurgence of interest in the surrogate technique. Various ratio techniques, external, internal and hybrid, have been developed to minimize the effect of target contamination. In the actinide region, a large number of surrogate (n,f) cross sections have been measured. In general, these show agreement to within 5--10%, with directly measured (n,f) data where these data exist (benchmarking), for equivalent neutron energies ranging from ~100 keV up to tens of MeV. For (n, γ) reactions, measurements have been attempted for select nuclei in various mass regions (A ~ 90, 150 and 235) and for these the agreement with directly measured data is less good. The various experimental techniques employed will be described as well as the current state of the experimental data. Some future directions will be described. Reactions on unstable nuclei are important in a wide variety of nuclear physics scenarios. Cross sections for neutron (or light charged particle) induced reactions on target nuclei spanning the chart of the nuclei are important for nuclear astrophysics (r-process, s

  7. Surrogate Markers of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Progression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanhainen, Anders; Mani, Kevin; Golledge, Jonathan

    2016-02-01

    The natural course of many abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) is to gradually expand and eventually rupture and monitoring the disease progression is essential to their management. In this publication, we review surrogate markers of AAA progression. AAA diameter remains the most widely used and important marker of AAA growth. Standardized reporting of reproducible methods of measuring AAA diameter is essential. Newer imaging assessments, such as volume measurements, biomechanical analyses, and functional and molecular imaging, as well as circulating biomarkers, have potential to add important information about AAA progression. Currently, however, there is insufficient evidence to recommend their routine use in clinical practice.

  8. Weather and emotional state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spasova, Z.

    2010-09-01

    Introduction Given the proven effects of weather on the human organism, an attempt to examine its effects on a psychic and emotional level has been made. Emotions affect the bio-tonus, working ability and concentration, hence their significance in various domains of economic life, such as health care, education, transportation, tourism, etc. Data and methods The research has been made in Sofia City within a period of 8 months, using 5 psychological methods (Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), Test for Self-assessment of the emotional state (developed by Wessman and Ricks), Test for evaluation of moods and Test "Self-confidence - Activity - Mood" (developed by the specialists from the Military Academy in Saint Petersburg). The Fiodorov-Chubukov's complex-climatic method was used to characterize meteorological conditions because of the purpose to include in the analysis a maximal number of meteorological elements. 16 weather types are defined in dependence of the meteorological elements values according to this method. Abrupt weather changes from one day to another, defined by the same method, were considered as well. Results and discussions The results obtained by t-test show that the different categories of weather lead to changes in the emotional status, which indicates a character either positive or negative for the organism. The abrupt weather changes, according to expectations, have negative effect on human emotions but only when a transition to the cloudy weather or weather type, classified as "unfavourable" has been realized. The relationship between weather and human emotions is rather complicated since it depends on individual characteristics of people. One of these individual psychological characteristics, marked by the dimension "neuroticism", has a strong effect on emotional reactions in different weather conditions. Emotionally stable individuals are more "protected" to the weather influence on their emotions

  9. Evaporation and weather

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruin, H.A.R. de; Feddes, R.A.; Holtslag, A.A.M.; Lablans, W.N.; Schuurmans, C.J.E.; Shuttleworth, W.J.

    1987-01-01

    Data on evaporation to be used in agriculture, hydrology, forestry, etc. are usually supplied by meteorologists. Meteorologists themselves also use evaporation data. Air mass properties determining weather are strongly dependent on the input of water vapour from the surface. So for weather

  10. Designing a Weather Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roman, Harry T.

    2012-01-01

    The collection and analysis of weather data is crucial to the location of alternate energy systems like solar and wind. This article presents a design challenge that gives students a chance to design a weather station to collect data in advance of a large wind turbine installation. Data analysis is a crucial part of any science or engineering…

  11. Evaporation and weather

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruin, H.A.R. de; Feddes, R.A.; Holtslag, A.A.M.; Lablans, W.N.; Schuurmans, C.J.E.; Shuttleworth, W.J.

    1987-01-01

    Data on evaporation to be used in agriculture, hydrology, forestry, etc. are usually supplied by meteorologists. Meteorologists themselves also use evaporation data. Air mass properties determining weather are strongly dependent on the input of water vapour from the surface. So for weather predictio

  12. Weather and road capacity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Thomas Christian

    2014-01-01

    The paper presents estimations of the effect of bad weather on the observed speed on a Danish highway section; Køge Bugt Motorvejen. The paper concludes that weather, primarily precipitation and snow, has a clear negative effect on speed when the road is not in hypercongestion mode. Furthermore......, the capacity of the highway seems to be reduced in bad weather and there are indications that travel time variability is also increased, at least in free-flow conditions. Heavy precipitation reduces speed and capacity by around 5-8%, whereas snow primarily reduces capacity. Other weather variables......-parametrically against traffic density and in step 2 the residuals from step 1 are regressed linearly against the weather variables. The choice of a non-parametric method is made to avoid constricting ties from a parametric specification and because the focus here is not on the relationship between traffic flow...

  13. Priority wetland invertebrates as conservation surrogates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ormerod, S J; Durance, Isabelle; Terrier, Aurelie; Swanson, Alisa M

    2010-04-01

    Invertebrates are important functionally in most ecosystems, but seldom appraised as surrogate indicators of biological diversity. Priority species might be good candidates; thus, here we evaluated whether three freshwater invertebrates listed in the U.K. Biodiversity Action Plan indicated the richness, composition, and conservation importance of associated wetland organisms as defined respectively by their alpha diversity, beta diversity, and threat status. Sites occupied by each of the gastropods Segmentina nitida, Anisus vorticulus, and Valvata macrostoma had greater species richness of gastropods and greater conservation importance than other sites. Each also characterized species assemblages associated with significant variations between locations in alpha or beta diversity among other mollusks and aquatic macrophytes. Because of their distinct resource requirements, conserving the three priority species extended the range of wetland types under management for nature conservation by 18% and the associated gastropod niche-space by around 33%. Although nonpriority species indicated variations in richness, composition, and conservation importance among other organisms as effectively as priority species, none characterized such a wide range of high-quality wetland types. We conclude that priority invertebrates are no more effective than nonpriority species as indicators of alpha and beta diversity or conservation importance among associated organisms. Nevertheless, conserving priority species can extend the array of distinct environments that are protected for their specialized biodiversity and environmental quality. We suggest that this is a key role for priority species and conservation surrogates more generally, and, on our evidence, can best be delivered through multiple species with contrasting habitat requirements.

  14. Estimating Predictability Redundancy and Surrogate Data Method

    CERN Document Server

    Pecen, L

    1995-01-01

    A method for estimating theoretical predictability of time series is presented, based on information-theoretic functionals---redundancies and surrogate data technique. The redundancy, designed for a chosen model and a prediction horizon, evaluates amount of information between a model input (e.g., lagged versions of the series) and a model output (i.e., a series lagged by the prediction horizon from the model input) in number of bits. This value, however, is influenced by a method and precision of redundancy estimation and therefore it is a) normalized by maximum possible redundancy (given by the precision used), and b) compared to the redundancies obtained from two types of the surrogate data in order to obtain reliable classification of a series as either unpredictable or predictable. The type of predictability (linear or nonlinear) and its level can be further evaluated. The method is demonstrated using a numerically generated time series as well as high-frequency foreign exchange data and the theoretical ...

  15. Weather in Mountainous Terrain (Overcoming Scientific Barriers to Weather Support)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-15

    Weather in Mountainous Terrain (Overcoming Scientific Barriers to Weather Support) Fiesta Resort & Conference Center Tempe, AZ February 1...Meteorology Overcoming Scientific Barriers to Weather Support Fiesta Resort & Conference Center Tempe, AZ February 1 & 2, 2010 Hosted by University

  16. A Method of Surrogate Model Construction which Leverages Lower-Fidelity Information using Space Mapping Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-27

    errors found using the polynomial response surrogate (LS PRM ) overlaid on the data from the space-mapped (SM) surrogate...nonlinear space-mapped surrogate responses, with the least-squares PRM surrogate response plotted for comparison . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 42...Percent error comparison between the least-squares space-mapping and the PRM surrogate models derived from samples in the second dataset

  17. Surrogate Modeling for Geometry Optimization in Material Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rojas Larrazabal, Marielba de la Caridad; Abraham, Yonas B.; Holzwarth, Natalie A.W.;

    2007-01-01

    We propose a new approach based on surrogate modeling for geometry optimization in material design. (© 2008 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)......We propose a new approach based on surrogate modeling for geometry optimization in material design. (© 2008 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)...

  18. Human surrogate neck response to +Gz vertical impact

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rooij, L. van; Uittenbogaard, J.

    2011-01-01

    For the evaluation of impact scenarios with a substantial vertical component, the performance of current human surrogates - the RID 3D hardware dummy and two numerical human models - was evaluated. Volunteer tests with 10G and 6G pulses were compared to reconstructed tests with human surrogates.

  19. Term clouds as surrogates for user generated speech

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Tsagkias; M. Larson; M. de Rijke

    2008-01-01

    User generated spoken audio remains a challenge for Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) technology and content-based audio surrogates derived from ASR-transcripts must be error robust. An investigation of the use of term clouds as surrogates for podcasts demonstrates that ASR term clouds closely appr

  20. INTEC SBW Solid Sludge Surrogate Recipe and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maio, Vince; Janikowski, Stuart; Johnson, Jim; Maio, Vince; Pao, Jenn-Hai

    2004-06-01

    A nonhazardous INTEC tank farm sludge surrogate that incorporated metathesis reactions to generate solids from solutions of known elements present in the radioactive INTEC tank farm sodium-bearing waste sludges was formulated. Elemental analyses, physical property analyses, and filtration testing were performed on waste surrogate and tank farm waste samples, and the results were compared. For testing physical systems associated with moving the tank farm solids, the surrogate described in this report is the best currently available choice. No other available surrogate exhibits the noted similarities in behavior to the sludges. The chemical morphology, particle size distribution, and settling and flow characteristics of the surrogate were similar to those exhibited by the waste sludges. Nonetheless, there is a difference in chemical makeup of the surrogate and the tank farm waste. If a chemical treatment process were to be evaluated for final treatment and disposition of the waste sludges, the surrogate synthesis process would likely require modification to yield a surrogate with a closer matching chemical composition.

  1. Inactivation of Tulane virus, a novel surrogate for human norovirus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Human noroviruses (HuNoVs) are the major cause of non-bacterial epidemics of gastroenteritis. Due to the inability to cultivate HuNoVs and the lack of an efficient small animal model, surrogates are used to study HuNoV biology. Two such surrogates, the feline calicivirus (FCV) and the murine norovir...

  2. Human surrogate neck response to +Gz vertical impact

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rooij, L. van; Uittenbogaard, J.

    2011-01-01

    For the evaluation of impact scenarios with a substantial vertical component, the performance of current human surrogates - the RID 3D hardware dummy and two numerical human models - was evaluated. Volunteer tests with 10G and 6G pulses were compared to reconstructed tests with human surrogates. Add

  3. Space Mapping Optimization of Microwave Circuits Exploiting Surrogate Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bakr, M. H.; Bandler, J. W.; Madsen, Kaj

    2000-01-01

    A powerful new space-mapping (SM) optimization algorithm is presented in this paper. It draws upon recent developments in both surrogate model-based optimization and modeling of microwave devices, SM optimization is formulated as a general optimization problem of a surrogate model. This model...

  4. Preclinical and human surrogate models of itch

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoeck, Emil August; Marker, Jens Broch; Gazerani, Parisa;

    2016-01-01

    Pruritus, or simply itch, is a debilitating symptom that significantly decreases the quality of life in a wide range of clinical conditions. While histamine remains the most studied mediator of itch in humans, treatment options for chronic itch, in particular antihistamine-resistant itch, are lim...... currently applied in animals and humans. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.......Pruritus, or simply itch, is a debilitating symptom that significantly decreases the quality of life in a wide range of clinical conditions. While histamine remains the most studied mediator of itch in humans, treatment options for chronic itch, in particular antihistamine-resistant itch......, are limited. Relevant preclinical and human surrogate models of non-histaminergic itch are needed to accelerate the development of novel antipruritics and diagnostic tools. Advances in basic itch research have facilitated the development of diverse models of itch and associated dysesthesiae. While...

  5. Surrogates of plutonium for detection equipment testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peerani, Paolo; Tomanin, Alice

    2011-10-01

    Fight against illicit trafficking of nuclear material relies on the possibility to detect nuclear material concealed in vehicles, people or cargo containers. This is done by equipping and training law enforcement and security staff in border stations or other points of access to strategic places and critical infrastructures with radiation detection equipment. The design, development, testing and evaluation of these instruments ideally require the use of real nuclear material to assess, verify and certify their detection performance. Availability of special nuclear material may be an issue, especially for industry, since only few specialized laboratories are licensed for such material. This paper tries to analyse and describe the possibility to use suitable surrogates that may replace the use of real nuclear material in testing the detection capabilities of instruments used in nuclear security.

  6. [Surrogate maternity--literature review and practice].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilka, L; Rumpík, D; Pilka, R; Koudelka, M; Prudil, L

    2009-04-01

    This review summarizes opinions on surrogacy including internatinal and governmental organizations attitudes, as well as some religious concerns. Literature review. Reprofit International, Brno, Reproductive medicine and gynecology centre, Zlin, Department of obstetrics and gynecology, Palacky University, Olomouc. The developments in the field of assissted reproduction during the last twenty years have attracted unexpected public interest in some of its ethical and moral aspects. It is very difficult to find a uniform attitude to ethical concerns of assisted conception in plural society. Surrogate mother is defined as a woman who bears and relinquishes a child for another person. The european congress on human reproduction in Barcelona 2008 adopted following résumé on surrogacy: Public opinion has shifted to a position where surrogacy is recognized as an appropriate response to infertility in some circumstances and it is to be expected that this approach will be further strenghtened with stress on positive aspects of familiar life.

  7. Tractable Experiment Design via Mathematical Surrogates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Brian J. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-02-29

    This presentation summarizes the development and implementation of quantitative design criteria motivated by targeted inference objectives for identifying new, potentially expensive computational or physical experiments. The first application is concerned with estimating features of quantities of interest arising from complex computational models, such as quantiles or failure probabilities. A sequential strategy is proposed for iterative refinement of the importance distributions used to efficiently sample the uncertain inputs to the computational model. In the second application, effective use of mathematical surrogates is investigated to help alleviate the analytical and numerical intractability often associated with Bayesian experiment design. This approach allows for the incorporation of prior information into the design process without the need for gross simplification of the design criterion. Illustrative examples of both design problems will be presented as an argument for the relevance of these research problems.

  8. The Application of Eczema Lotion Cold Wet in Mice With Acute Eczema Skin Tissue on the Influence of CGRP Content and Tissue Inlfammation%湿疹洗剂冷湿敷对小鼠急性湿疹皮损组织降钙素相关基因肽含量及组织炎症的影响

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    邓瑾; 刘爱民

    2016-01-01

    目的:观察不同浓度的湿疹洗剂对小鼠急性湿疹模型降钙素相关基因肽(CGRP)及皮肤组织炎症等指标数值影响。方法采取2,4二硝基氟苯法建立小鼠急性湿疹模型,采用湿疹洗剂20%,10%,5%高,中,低浓度溶液冷湿敷,以3%硼酸溶液对照,10 d后检测真皮炎症细胞数及降钙素相关基因肽等数值。结果真皮炎性细胞细胞浸润实验,降钙素相关基因肽含量变化定量实验中单核细胞数及多核细胞数,小鼠耳降钙素相关基因肽浓度数据分别表明在抑制小鼠真皮炎性细胞细胞浸润的作用和定量观察局部组织CGRP的增加作用上高浓度组、中浓度组的治疗效果均比模型对照组的治疗效果显著,差异具有统计学意义(P<0.01);高浓度组的治疗效果与中浓度组的治疗效果对比,差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05);低浓度组的治疗效果与阳性对照组的治疗效果对比,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论湿疹洗剂具有显著抑制炎性细胞浸润和提高降钙素相关基因肽的作用,高、中浓度湿疹洗剂湿敷治疗急性湿疹的疗效更加显著。%Objective To observe the different concentrations of eczema lotion on the mice model of acute eczema calcitonin gene related peptide (CGRP) and skin tissue inflammation index number. Methods 2, 4 dinitrodiphenyl fluorine benzene method to establish a mouse model of acute eczema, the eczema lotion 20%, 10%, 5%, high, cold wet apply low concentration solution, compared with 3% boric acid solution, 10 days after detection of dermal inflammatory cells and calcitonin gene related peptide (CGRP) and so on. Results Dermal cells, inflammatory cell inifltrate experiment, the changes of calcitonin gene related peptide content quantitative experiment showed that the treatment of high concentration group, the concentration of treatment than the model control group with significant difference (P<0

  9. Sheet metal forming optimization by using surrogate modeling techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hu; Ye, Fan; Chen, Lei; Li, Enying

    2017-01-01

    Surrogate assisted optimization has been widely applied in sheet metal forming design due to its efficiency. Therefore, to improve the efficiency of design and reduce the product development cycle, it is important for scholars and engineers to have some insight into the performance of each surrogate assisted optimization method and make them more flexible practically. For this purpose, the state-of-the-art surrogate assisted optimizations are investigated. Furthermore, in view of the bottleneck and development of the surrogate assisted optimization and sheet metal forming design, some important issues on the surrogate assisted optimization in support of the sheet metal forming design are analyzed and discussed, involving the description of the sheet metal forming design, off-line and online sampling strategies, space mapping algorithm, high dimensional problems, robust design, some challenges and potential feasible methods. Generally, this paper provides insightful observations into the performance and potential development of these methods in sheet metal forming design.

  10. Oil Rig Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather observations taken at offshore platforms along the United States coastlines. The majority are located in oil-rich areas of the Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of...

  11. Uruguay - Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface weather observation forms for 26 stations in Uruguay. Period of record 1896-2005, with two to eight observations per day. Files created through a...

  12. Cape Kennedy Weather Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Digitized data taken from original weather observations taken at Cape Kennedy Air Force Station, Florida. Elements recorded are wind speed and direction,...

  13. Monthly Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Weather Observation 1001 Forms is a set of historical manuscript records for the period 1893-1948. The collection includes two very similar form types: Form...

  14. Daily Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Several different government offices have published the Daily weather maps over its history. The publication has also gone by different names over time. The U.S....

  15. Weather Information Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    Science Communications International (SCI), formerly General Science Corporation, has developed several commercial products based upon experience acquired as a NASA Contractor. Among them are METPRO, a meteorological data acquisition and processing system, which has been widely used, RISKPRO, an environmental assessment system, and MAPPRO, a geographic information system. METPRO software is used to collect weather data from satellites, ground-based observation systems and radio weather broadcasts to generate weather maps, enabling potential disaster areas to receive advance warning. GSC's initial work for NASA Goddard Space Flight Center resulted in METPAK, a weather satellite data analysis system. METPAK led to the commercial METPRO system. The company also provides data to other government agencies, U.S. embassies and foreign countries.

  16. Space Weather Products

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Collection includes a variety of space weather datasets from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and from the World Data Service for Geophysics,...

  17. Environmental diversity as a surrogate for species representation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beier, Paul; de Albuquerque, Fábio Suzart

    2015-10-01

    Because many species have not been described and most species ranges have not been mapped, conservation planners often use surrogates for conservation planning, but evidence for surrogate effectiveness is weak. Surrogates are well-mapped features such as soil types, landforms, occurrences of an easily observed taxon (discrete surrogates), and well-mapped environmental conditions (continuous surrogate). In the context of reserve selection, the idea is that a set of sites selected to span diversity in the surrogate will efficiently represent most species. Environmental diversity (ED) is a rarely used surrogate that selects sites to efficiently span multivariate ordination space. Because it selects across continuous environmental space, ED should perform better than discrete surrogates (which necessarily ignore within-bin and between-bin heterogeneity). Despite this theoretical advantage, ED appears to have performed poorly in previous tests of its ability to identify 50 × 50 km cells that represented vertebrates in Western Europe. Using an improved implementation of ED, we retested ED on Western European birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, and combined terrestrial vertebrates. We also tested ED on data sets for plants of Zimbabwe, birds of Spain, and birds of Arizona (United States). Sites selected using ED represented European mammals no better than randomly selected cells, but they represented species in the other 7 data sets with 20% to 84% effectiveness. This far exceeds the performance in previous tests of ED, and exceeds the performance of most discrete surrogates. We believe ED performed poorly in previous tests because those tests considered only a few candidate explanatory variables and used suboptimal forms of ED's selection algorithm. We suggest future work on ED focus on analyses at finer grain sizes more relevant to conservation decisions, explore the effect of selecting the explanatory variables most associated with species turnover, and investigate

  18. Genetically optimizing weather predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, S. B.; Staats, Kai; Romero-Colmenero, Encarni

    2016-07-01

    humidity, air pressure, wind speed and wind direction) into a database. Built upon this database, we have developed a remarkably simple approach to derive a functional weather predictor. The aim is provide up to the minute local weather predictions in order to e.g. prepare dome environment conditions ready for night time operations or plan, prioritize and update weather dependent observing queues. In order to predict the weather for the next 24 hours, we take the current live weather readings and search the entire archive for similar conditions. Predictions are made against an averaged, subsequent 24 hours of the closest matches for the current readings. We use an Evolutionary Algorithm to optimize our formula through weighted parameters. The accuracy of the predictor is routinely tested and tuned against the full, updated archive to account for seasonal trends and total, climate shifts. The live (updated every 5 minutes) SALT weather predictor can be viewed here: http://www.saao.ac.za/ sbp/suthweather_predict.html

  19. Cockpit weather information system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tu, Jeffrey Chen-Yu (Inventor)

    2000-01-01

    Weather information, periodically collected from throughout a global region, is periodically assimilated and compiled at a central source and sent via a high speed data link to a satellite communication service, such as COMSAT. That communication service converts the compiled weather information to GSDB format, and transmits the GSDB encoded information to an orbiting broadcast satellite, INMARSAT, transmitting the information at a data rate of no less than 10.5 kilobits per second. The INMARSAT satellite receives that data over its P-channel and rebroadcasts the GDSB encoded weather information, in the microwave L-band, throughout the global region at a rate of no less than 10.5 KB/S. The transmission is received aboard an aircraft by means of an onboard SATCOM receiver and the output is furnished to a weather information processor. A touch sensitive liquid crystal panel display allows the pilot to select the weather function by touching a predefined icon overlain on the display's surface and in response a color graphic display of the weather is displayed for the pilot.

  20. Surrogate motherhood as a medical treatment procedure for women's infertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jovic, Olga S

    2011-03-01

    The content of this work is conceived on the research of the consequences of surrogate motherhood as a process of assisted procreation, which represent a way of parenthood in cases when it is not possible to realize parenthood through a natural way. Surrogate motherhood is a process in which a woman (surrogate mother) agrees to carry a pregnancy with the intent to give the child to the couple with whom she has made a contract on surrogate maternity after the birth. This process of conception and birth makes the determination of the child's origin on its mother's side hard to determine, because of the distinction of the genetic and gestation phases of the two women. The concept of surrogate motherhood is to appear in two forms, depending on the existence or the non-existence of the genetic link between the surrogate mother and the child she gives birth to. There are gestation (full) and genetic (partial) surrogates each with different modalities and legal and ethical implications. In Serbia, Infertility Treatment and the Bio-medically Assisted Procreation Act from 2009 explicitly forbids surrogate motherhood, despite the fact that an infertile couple decides to use it, as a rule, after having tried all other treatment procedures, in cases when there is a diagnosis but the conventional treatment applied has not produced the desired results. Given the fact that no one has the right to ignore the sufferings of people who cannot procreate naturally, the medical practice and legal science in our country plead for a formulation of a legal framework in which to apply surrogate motherhood as an infertility treatment, under particular conditions.

  1. Surrogate-based Multi-Objective Optimization and Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Large, Complex Geophysical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Wei; Duan, Qingyun

    2016-04-01

    Parameterization scheme has significant influence to the simulation ability of large, complex dynamic geophysical models, such as distributed hydrological models, land surface models, weather and climate models, etc. with the growing knowledge of physical processes, the dynamic geophysical models include more and more processes and producing more output variables. Consequently the parameter optimization / uncertainty quantification algorithms should also be multi-objective compatible. Although such algorithms have long been available, they usually require a large number of model runs and are therefore computationally expensive for large, complex dynamic models. In this research, we have developed surrogate-based multi-objective optimization method (MO-ASMO) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (MC-ASMO) for uncertainty quantification for these expensive dynamic models. The aim of MO-ASMO and MC-ASMO is to reduce the total number of model runs with appropriate adaptive sampling strategy assisted by surrogate modeling. Moreover, we also developed a method that can steer the search process with the help of prior parameterization scheme derived from the physical processes involved, so that all of the objectives can be improved simultaneously. The proposed algorithms have been evaluated with test problems and a land surface model - the Common Land Model (CoLM). The results demonstrated their effectiveness and efficiency.

  2. Mother-daughter in vitro fertilization triplet surrogate pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelow, M C; Bernstein, J; Jacobson, M J; McLoughlin, J L; Rubenstein, D; Hacking, A I; Preddy, S; Van der Wat, I J

    1988-02-01

    A successful triplet pregnancy has been established in a surrogate gestational mother following the transfer of five embryos fertilized in vitro. The oocytes were donated by her biological daughter, and the sperm obtained from the daughter's husband. The daughter's infertility followed a total abdominal hysterectomy performed for a postpartum hemorrhage as a result of a placenta accreta. Synchronization of both their menstrual cycles was obtained using oral contraceptive suppression for 2 months, followed by stimulation of both the surrogate gestational mother and her daughter such that embryo transfer would occur at least 48 hr after the surrogate gestational mother's own ovulation. This case raises a number of medical, social, psychological, and ethical issues.

  3. SURROGATE MOTHER DALAM PERSPEKTIF HUKUM PIDANA INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mr. Muntaha

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The development of science and technology, in particular in the field of health, has already recently brought a huge advantage and problem in human life. An example of technological marvel that not only requires deep legal thoughts but also at the same time solution is the bio-medical technology advancement of surrogacy. Surrogacy deals with human’s inclination towards reproductive activity. However, it opens up legal complication, in particular with regards to the potential commission of a criminal action as well as to the notion of doctor’s liability. Perkembangan ilmu dan teknologi di bidang kesehatan yang semakin maju dan pesat telah membawa berbagai manfaat dan masalah dalam kehidupan manusia dewasa ini. Salah satu perkembangan yang tidak hanya membutuhkan pemikiran di bidang hukum, tetapi juga sekaligus solusinya adalah mengenai kecanggihan teknologi bio-medis surrogate mother. Surrogacy menyentuh sisi kemanusiaan seorang insan terhadap reproduksi. Akan tetapi, lembaga surrogacy juga membawa komplikasi hukum terutama terkait dengan potensi tindak pidana dan dengan persoalan tanggung jawab dokter.

  4. Polynomial Chaos Surrogates for Bayesian Inference

    KAUST Repository

    Le Maitre, Olivier

    2016-01-06

    The Bayesian inference is a popular probabilistic method to solve inverse problems, such as the identification of field parameter in a PDE model. The inference rely on the Bayes rule to update the prior density of the sought field, from observations, and derive its posterior distribution. In most cases the posterior distribution has no explicit form and has to be sampled, for instance using a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo method. In practice the prior field parameter is decomposed and truncated (e.g. by means of Karhunen- Lo´eve decomposition) to recast the inference problem into the inference of a finite number of coordinates. Although proved effective in many situations, the Bayesian inference as sketched above faces several difficulties requiring improvements. First, sampling the posterior can be a extremely costly task as it requires multiple resolutions of the PDE model for different values of the field parameter. Second, when the observations are not very much informative, the inferred parameter field can highly depends on its prior which can be somehow arbitrary. These issues have motivated the introduction of reduced modeling or surrogates for the (approximate) determination of the parametrized PDE solution and hyperparameters in the description of the prior field. Our contribution focuses on recent developments in these two directions: the acceleration of the posterior sampling by means of Polynomial Chaos expansions and the efficient treatment of parametrized covariance functions for the prior field. We also discuss the possibility of making such approach adaptive to further improve its efficiency.

  5. A Large-Scale Study of Surrogate Physicality and Gesturing on Human–Surrogate Interactions in a Public Space

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kangsoo Kim

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Technological human surrogates, including robotic and virtual humans, have been popularly used in various scenarios, including training, education, and entertainment. Prior research has investigated the effects of the surrogate’s physicality and gesturing in human perceptions and social influence of the surrogate. However, those studies have been carried out in research laboratories, where the participants were aware that it was an experiment, and the participant demographics are typically relatively narrow—e.g., college students. In this paper, we describe and share results from a large-scale exploratory user study involving 7,685 people in a public space, where they were unaware of the experimental nature of the setting, to investigate the effects of surrogate physicality and gesturing on their behavior during human–surrogate interactions. We evaluate human behaviors using several variables, such as proactivity and reactivity, and proximity. We have identified several interesting phenomena that could lead to hypotheses developed as part of future hypothesis-based studies. Based on the measurements of the variables, we believe people are more likely to be engaged in a human–surrogate interaction when the surrogate is physically present, but movements and gesturing with its body parts have not shown the expected benefits for the interaction engagement. Regarding the demographics of the people in the study, we found higher overall engagement for females than males, and higher reactivity for younger than older people. We discuss implications for practitioners aiming to design a technological surrogate that will directly interact with real humans.

  6. Space weather & telecommunications

    CERN Document Server

    Goodman, John M

    2006-01-01

    This book is both a survey of practical concepts for forecasting the performance of various telecommunication systems as well as a balanced treatment of space-weather phenomena that give rise to telecommunication impairment episodes. It bridges the gap in the relationship that exists between the following two disciplines: space weather and telecommunication system performance. There are a number of books that address one of the two disciplines in some detail, but only merely mention the other as an afterthought. In this book the author has married the two disciplines so that the readership can

  7. Hepatology may have problems with putative surrogate outcome measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gluud, Christian; Brok, Jesper; Gong, Yan;

    2007-01-01

    hepatitis C, serum bilirubin concentration following ursodeoxycholic acid or immunosuppressants for patients with primary biliary cirrhosis, and nutritional outcomes following artificial nutrition for liver patients may not be valid surrogates for morbidity or mortality. The challenge is to develop reliable...

  8. Fernald Silos 1 & 2 Accelerated Waste Retrieval Program Surrogate Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mullen, O Dennis; Erian, Fadel F.

    2002-09-01

    Whitepaper describing the rationale and methodology for development of surrogates to be used for testing retrieval and processing systems for the DOE Fernald Silos 1 & 2 wastes. One significant updating/revision is expected.

  9. THE SURROGATE COLONIZATION OF PALESTINE, 1917-1939

    OpenAIRE

    Atran, Scott

    1989-01-01

    The "surrogate colonization" of Palestine had a foreign power giving to a nonnative group rights over land occupied by an indigenous people. It thus brought into play the complementary and conflicting agendas of three culturally distinguishable parties: British, Jews and Arabs. Each party had both "externalist" [those with no sustained practical experience of day to day life in Palestine] and "internalist" representatives. The surrogate idea was based on a "strategic consensus" involving each...

  10. Surrogate nutrition markers, malnutrition, and adequacy of nutrition support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seres, David S

    2005-06-01

    Surrogate nutrition markers are used to assess adequacy of nourishment and to define malnutrition despite evidence that fails to link nourishment, surrogate markers, and outcomes. Markers such as serum levels of albumin, prealbumin, transferrin, and IGF-1 and delayed hypersensitivity and total lymphocyte count may be valid to help stratify risk. However, it is not appropriate to consider these as markers of adequacy of nourishment in the sick patient.

  11. Emotional experiences in surrogate mothers: A qualitative study

    OpenAIRE

    Hoda Ahmari Tehran; Shohreh Tashi; Nahid Mehran; Narges Eskandari; Tahmineh Dadkhah Tehrani

    2014-01-01

    Background: Surrogacy is one of the new techniques of assisted reproduction technology in which a woman carries and bears a child for another woman. In Iran, many Shia clerics and jurists considered it permissible so there is no religious prohibition for it. In addition to the risk of physical complications for complete surrogate mothers, the possibility of psychological complications resulted from emotional attachment to a living creature in the surrogate mother as another injury requires co...

  12. Human surrogate models of neuropathic pain: validity and limitations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binder, Andreas

    2016-02-01

    Human surrogate models of neuropathic pain in healthy subjects are used to study symptoms, signs, and the hypothesized underlying mechanisms. Although different models are available, different spontaneous and evoked symptoms and signs are inducible; 2 key questions need to be answered: are human surrogate models conceptually valid, ie, do they share the sensory phenotype of neuropathic pain states, and are they sufficiently reliable to allow consistent translational research?

  13. Magnetometer Response of Commonly Found Munitions Items and Munitions Surrogates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-12

    Predicted minimum magnetometer anomaly strength for a variety of munitions and surrogate items at a burial depth corresponding to 11x their respective...Response Live Site Demonstrations. The authors would like to thank Craig Murray of Parsons and Stephen Billings of Sky Research for their...variety of munitions and surrogate items at a burial depth corresponding to 11x their respective diameter. The sensor is assumed to be deployed as part

  14. Local weather, regional climate, and annual survival of the northern spotted owl

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn, E.M.; Anthony, R.G.; Forsman, E.D.; Olson, G.S.

    2011-01-01

    We used an information-theoretical approach and Cormack-Jolly-Seber models for open populations in program MARK to examine relationships between survival rates of Northern Spotted Owls and a variety of local weather variables and long-term climate variables. In four of the six populations examined, survival was positively associated with wetter than normal conditions during the growing season or high summer temperatures. At the three study areas located at the highest elevations, survival was positively associated with winter temperature but also had a negative or quadratic relation with the number of storms and winter precipitation. A metaanalysis of all six areas combined indicated that annual survival was most strongly associated with phase shifts in the Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which reflect large-scale temperature and precipitation patterns in this region. Climate accounted for a variable amount (1-41%) of the total process variation in annual survival but for more year-to-year variation (3-66%) than did spatial variation among owl territories (0-7%). Negative associations between survival and cold, wet winters and nesting seasons were similar to those found in other studies of the Spotted Owl. The relationships between survival and growing-season precipitation and regional climate patterns, however, had not been reported for this species previously. Climate-change models for the first half of the 21st century predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest. Our results indicate that these conditions could decrease Spotted Owl survival in some areas. Copyright ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2011.

  15. Dress for the Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glen, Nicole J.; Smetana, Lara K.

    2010-01-01

    "If someone were traveling to our area for the first time during this time of year, what would you tell them to bring to wear? Why?" This question was used to engage students in a guided-inquiry unit about how climate differs from weather. In this lesson, students explored local and national data sets to give "travelers" advice…

  16. Microbial Weathering of Olivine

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, D. S.; Longazo, T. G.; Wentworth, S. J.; Southam, G.

    2002-01-01

    Controlled microbial weathering of olivine experiments displays a unique style of nanoetching caused by biofilm attachment to mineral surfaces. We are investigating whether the morphology of biotic nanoetching can be used as a biosignature. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  17. Winter Weather: Indoor Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Part 3 of 3) Hot Weather Tips Heat Stress in Older Adults FAQs Extreme Heat PSAs Related Links MMWR Bibliography CDC's Program Floods Flood Readiness Personal Hygiene After a Disaster Cleanup of Flood Water After a Flood Worker Safety Educational Materials Floods ...

  18. Winter Weather: Frostbite

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Part 3 of 3) Hot Weather Tips Heat Stress in Older Adults FAQs Extreme Heat PSAs Related Links MMWR Bibliography CDC's Program Floods Flood Readiness Personal Hygiene After a Disaster Cleanup of Flood Water After a Flood Worker Safety Educational Materials Floods ...

  19. Winter Weather Checklists

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Part 3 of 3) Hot Weather Tips Heat Stress in Older Adults FAQs Extreme Heat PSAs Related Links MMWR Bibliography CDC's Program Floods Flood Readiness Personal Hygiene After a Disaster Cleanup of Flood Water After a Flood Worker Safety Educational Materials Floods ...

  20. Weather at LANL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruggeman, David Alan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-04-19

    This report gives general information about how to become a meteorologist and what kinds of jobs exist in that field. Then it goes into detail about why weather is monitored at LANL, how it is done, and where the data can be accessed online.

  1. Cold Weather Pet Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... they can be knocked over, potentially starting a fire. Check your furnace before the cold weather sets in to make ... avoided because of the risk of burns or fire. Heated pet mats should also be used ... to burrow, get them back inside quickly because they are showing signs of ...

  2. Dress for the Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glen, Nicole J.; Smetana, Lara K.

    2010-01-01

    "If someone were traveling to our area for the first time during this time of year, what would you tell them to bring to wear? Why?" This question was used to engage students in a guided-inquiry unit about how climate differs from weather. In this lesson, students explored local and national data sets to give "travelers" advice…

  3. 'Is it the weather?'

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Jacobsen (Ben); W.A. Marquering (Wessel)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractWe show that results in the recent strand of the literature that tries to explain stock returns by weather induced mood shifts of investors might be data-driven inference. More specifically, we consider two recent studies (Kamstra, Kramer and Levi, 2003a and Cao and Wei, 2004) that claim

  4. Financial Surrogate Decision Making: Lessons from Applied Experimental Philosophy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feltz, Adam

    2016-09-20

    An estimated 1 in 4 elderly Americans need a surrogate to make decisions at least once in their lives. With an aging population, that number is almost certainly going to increase. This paper focuses on financial surrogate decision making. To illustrate some of the empirical and moral implications associated with financial surrogate decision making, two experiments suggest that default choice settings can predictably influence some surrogate financial decision making. Experiment 1 suggested that when making hypothetical financial decisions, surrogates tended to stay with default settings (OR = 4.37, 95% CI 1.52, 12.48). Experiment 2 replicated and extended this finding suggesting that in a different context (OR = 2.27, 95% CI 1.1, 4.65). Experiment 2 also suggested that those who were more numerate were less likely to be influenced by default settings than the less numerate, but only when the decision is whether to "opt in" (p = .05). These data highlight the importance of a recent debate about "nudging." Defaults are common methods to nudge people to make desirable choices while allowing the liberty to choose otherwise. Some of the ethics of using default settings to nudge surrogate decision makers are discussed.

  5. Reliability-based design optimization with progressive surrogate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanakasabai, Pugazhendhi; Dhingra, Anoop K.

    2014-12-01

    Reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) has traditionally been solved as a nested (bilevel) optimization problem, which is a computationally expensive approach. Unilevel and decoupled approaches for solving the RBDO problem have also been suggested in the past to improve the computational efficiency. However, these approaches also require a large number of response evaluations during optimization. To alleviate the computational burden, surrogate models have been used for reliability evaluation. These approaches involve construction of surrogate models for the reliability computation at each point visited by the optimizer in the design variable space. In this article, a novel approach to solving the RBDO problem is proposed based on a progressive sensitivity surrogate model. The sensitivity surrogate models are built in the design variable space outside the optimization loop using the kriging method or the moving least squares (MLS) method based on sample points generated from low-discrepancy sampling (LDS) to estimate the most probable point of failure (MPP). During the iterative deterministic optimization, the MPP is estimated from the surrogate model for each design point visited by the optimizer. The surrogate sensitivity model is also progressively updated for each new iteration of deterministic optimization by adding new points and their responses. Four example problems are presented showing the relative merits of the kriging and MLS approaches and the overall accuracy and improved efficiency of the proposed approach.

  6. Weatherization Works: An interim report of the National Weatherization Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M.A.; Berry, L.G. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Kinney, L.F. [Synertech Systems Corp., Syracuse, NY (United States)

    1993-11-01

    The National Weatherization Evaluation is the first comprehensive evaluation of the Weatherization Assistance Program since 1984. The evaluation was designed to accomplish the following goals: Estimate energy savings and cost effectiveness; Assess nonenergy impacts; Describe the weatherization network; Characterize the eligible population and resources; and Identify factors influencing outcomes and opportunities for the future. As a national program, weatherization incorporates considerable diversity due to regional differences. Therefore, evaluation results are presented both in aggregate and for three climate regions: cold, moderate and hot.

  7. Weatherization Works: An interim report of the National Weatherization Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M.A.; Berry, L.G. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Kinney, L.F. [Synertech Systems Corp., Syracuse, NY (United States)

    1993-11-01

    The National Weatherization Evaluation is the first comprehensive evaluation of the Weatherization Assistance Program since 1984. The evaluation was designed to accomplish the following goals: Estimate energy savings and cost effectiveness; Assess nonenergy impacts; Describe the weatherization network; Characterize the eligible population and resources; and Identify factors influencing outcomes and opportunities for the future. As a national program, weatherization incorporates considerable diversity due to regional differences. Therefore, evaluation results are presented both in aggregate and for three climate regions: cold, moderate and hot.

  8. Beyond multi-fractals: surrogate time series and fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venema, V.; Simmer, C.

    2007-12-01

    Most natural complex are characterised by variability on a large range of temporal and spatial scales. The two main methodologies to generate such structures are Fourier/FARIMA based algorithms and multifractal methods. The former is restricted to Gaussian data, whereas the latter requires the structure to be self-similar. This work will present so-called surrogate data as an alternative that works with any (empirical) distribution and power spectrum. The best-known surrogate algorithm is the iterative amplitude adjusted Fourier transform (IAAFT) algorithm. We have studied six different geophysical time series (two clouds, runoff of a small and a large river, temperature and rain) and their surrogates. The power spectra and consequently the 2nd order structure functions were replicated accurately. Even the fourth order structure function was more accurately reproduced by the surrogates as would be possible by a fractal method, because the measured structure deviated too strong from fractal scaling. Only in case of the daily rain sums a fractal method could have been more accurate. Just as Fourier and multifractal methods, the current surrogates are not able to model the asymmetric increment distributions observed for runoff, i.e., they cannot reproduce nonlinear dynamical processes that are asymmetric in time. Furthermore, we have found differences for the structure functions on small scales. Surrogate methods are especially valuable for empirical studies, because the time series and fields that are generated are able to mimic measured variables accurately. Our main application is radiative transfer through structured clouds. Like many geophysical fields, clouds can only be sampled sparsely, e.g. with in-situ airborne instruments. However, for radiative transfer calculations we need full 3-dimensional cloud fields. A first study relating the measured properties of the cloud droplets and the radiative properties of the cloud field by generating surrogate cloud

  9. North America Synoptic Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Series of Synoptic Weather Maps. Maps contains a surface analysis comprised of plotted weather station observations, isobars indicating low and high-pressure...

  10. Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI) is an integrated database of severe weather records for the United States. SWDI enables a user to search through a variety...

  11. What characterizes planetary space weather?

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    International audience; Space weather has become a mature discipline for the Earth space environment. With increasing efforts in space exploration, it is becoming more and more necessary to understand the space environments of bodies other than Earth. This is the background for an emerging aspect of the space weather discipline: planetary space weather. In this article, we explore what characterizes planetary space weather, using some examples throughout the solar system. We consider energy s...

  12. Severe Weather Planning for Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Barbara McNaught; Strong, Christopher; Bunting, Bill

    2008-01-01

    Flash floods, severe thunderstorms, and tornadoes occur with rapid onset and often no warning. Decisions must be made quickly and actions taken immediately. This paper provides tips for schools on: (1) Preparing for Severe Weather Emergencies; (2) Activating a Severe Weather Plan; (3) Severe Weather Plan Checklist; and (4) Periodic Drills and…

  13. Surrogate Modeling of Deformable Joint Contact using Artificial Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eskinazi, Ilan; Fregly, Benjamin J.

    2016-01-01

    Deformable joint contact models can be used to estimate loading conditions for cartilage-cartilage, implant-implant, human-orthotic, and foot-ground interactions. However, contact evaluations are often so expensive computationally that they can be prohibitive for simulations or optimizations requiring thousands or even millions of contact evaluations. To overcome this limitation, we developed a novel surrogate contact modeling method based on artificial neural networks (ANNs). The method uses special sampling techniques to gather input-output data points from an original (slow) contact model in multiple domains of input space, where each domain represents a different physical situation likely to be encountered. For each contact force and torque output by the original contact model, a multi-layer feed-forward ANN is defined, trained, and incorporated into a surrogate contact model. As an evaluation problem, we created an ANN-based surrogate contact model of an artificial tibiofemoral joint using over 75,000 evaluations of a fine-grid elastic foundation (EF) contact model. The surrogate contact model computed contact forces and torques about 1000 times faster than a less accurate coarse grid EF contact model. Furthermore, the surrogate contact model was seven times more accurate than the coarse grid EF contact model within the input domain of a walking motion. For larger input domains, the surrogate contact model showed the expected trend of increasing error with increasing domain size. In addition, the surrogate contact model was able to identify out-of-contact situations with high accuracy. Computational contact models created using our proposed ANN approach may remove an important computational bottleneck from musculoskeletal simulations or optimizations incorporating deformable joint contact models. PMID:26220591

  14. Whether weather affects music

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aplin, Karen L.; Williams, Paul D.

    2012-09-01

    The creative output of composers, writers, and artists is often influenced by their surroundings. To give a literary example, it has been claimed recently that some of the characters in Oliver Twist and A Christmas Carol were based on real-life people who lived near Charles Dickens in London [Richardson, 2012]. Of course, an important part of what we see and hear is not only the people with whom we interact but also our geophysical surroundings. Of all the geophysical phenomena to influence us, the weather is arguably the most significant because we are exposed to it directly and daily. The weather was a great source of inspiration for artists Claude Monet, John Constable, and William Turner, who are known for their scientifically accurate paintings of the skies [e.g., Baker and Thornes, 2006].

  15. The Weather Man

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蒋涵毅

    2009-01-01

    Secondly. the weather man一定会告诉我们每天的最高和最低温度(the highest and the lowest temperature)。我们用℃来表示摄氏度,有的地方则用°F,那是华氏温度。°F=9/5×℃+32

  16. Tactical Weather Expert System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    The objective of this project was to assess the feasibility of developing an expert system for tactical weather prediction. Using WILLARD, an expert ...indicate that intelligent interpretations of cloud formations can be made. These inferences can then be automatically passed to the expert system for...processing as another piece of information. It is anticipated that this technology will significantly reduce the dependence of the expert system on a

  17. Space Weather Ballooning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Tony; Johnson, Sam; Koske-Phillips, Amelia; White, Michael; Yarborough, Amelia; Lamb, Aaron; Herbst, Anna; Molina, Ferris; Gilpin, Justin; Grah, Olivia; Perez, Ginger; Reid, Carson; Harvey, Joey; Schultz, Jamie

    2016-10-01

    We have developed a "Space Weather Buoy" for measuring upper atmospheric radiation from cosmic rays and solar storms. The Buoy, which is carried to the stratosphere by helium balloons, is relatively inexpensive and uses off-the-shelf technology accessible to small colleges and high schools. Using this device, we have measured two Forbush Decreases and a small surge in atmospheric radiation during the St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm of March 2015.

  18. Weathering the financial storm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ólafsson, Tjörvi; Pétursson, Thórarinn G.

    2011-01-01

    to explain a significant share of the cross-country variation in the depth and duration of the crisis and provide quite sharp predictions of the incidence of banking and currency crises. This suggests that country-specific initial conditions played an important role in determining the economic impact...... of the crisis and, in particular, that countries with sound fundamentals and flexible economic frameworks were better able to weather the financial storm....

  19. Areosynchronous weather imager

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puschell, Jeffery J.; Lock, Robert

    2016-09-01

    Mars is characterized by rapidly changing, poorly understood weather that is a concern for future human missions. Future Areosynchronous Mars Orbit (AMO) communication satellites offer possible platforms for Mars weather imagers similar to the geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) weather imagers that have been observing Earth since 1966. This paper describes an AReosynchronous Environmental Suite (ARES) that includes two imagers: one with two emissive infrared bands (10.8 μm and 12.0 μm) at 4 km resolution and the other with three VNIR bands (500 nm, 700 nm, 900 nm) at 1 km resolution. ARES stares at Mars and provides full disk coverage as fast as every 40 sec in the VNIR bands and every 2 min in the emissive bands with good sensitivity (SNR 200 in the VNIR for typical radiances and NEDT 0.2K at 180 K scene temperature in the emissive infrared). ARES size, mass, power and data rate characteristics are compatible with expectations for hosted payloads onboard future AMO communication satellites. Nevertheless, more work is needed to optimize ARES for future missions, especially in terms of trades between data rate, full disk coverage rate, sensitivity, number of spectral bands and spatial resolution and in study of approaches for maintaining accurate line of sight knowledge during data collection.

  20. Weather Monitoring Station: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mr. Dipak V. Sose

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Weather monitoring plays a very important role in human life hence study of weather system is necessary. Currently there are two types of the weather monitoring stations available i.e. wired and wireless. Wireless system has some advantages over the wired one hence popular now a days. The parameters are include in weather monitoring usually temperature, humidity atmospheric pressure, light intensity, rainfall etc. There are many techniques existed using different processor such as PIC, AVR, ARM etc. Analog to digital channel are used to fetch the analog output of the sensors. The wireless techniques used in the weather monitoring having GSM, FM channel, Zigbee, RF etc Protocols

  1. Biodegradation of naphthenic acid surrogates by axenic cultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Siqing; Ramsay, Bruce A; Ramsay, Juliana A

    2015-07-01

    This is the first study to report that bacteria from the genera Ochrobactrum, Brevundimonas and Bacillus can be isolated by growth on naphthenic acids (NAs) extracted from oil sands process water (OSPW). These pure cultures were screened for their ability to use a range of aliphatic, cyclic and aromatic NA surrogates in 96-well microtiter plates using water-soluble tetrazolium redox dyes (Biolog Redox Dye H) as the indicator of metabolic activity. Of the three cultures, Ochrobactrum showed most metabolic activity on the widest range of NA surrogates. Brevundomonas and especially Ochrobactrum had higher metabolic activity on polycyclic aromatic compounds than other classes of NA surrogates. Bacillus also oxidized a wide range of NA surrogates but not as well as Ochrobactrum. Using this method to characterize NA utilisation, one can identify which NAs or NA classes in OSPW are more readily degraded. Since aromatic NAs have been shown to have an estrogenic effect and polycyclic monoaromatic compounds have been suggested to pose the greatest environmental threat among the NAs, these bacterial genera may play an important role in detoxification of OSPW. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that bacteria belonging to the genera Ochrobactrum and Bacillus can also degrade surrogates of tricyclic NAs.

  2. Searching for Dynamical Earthquake Precursors with Surrogate Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, J.; Revenaugh, J.; Georgopoulos, A.

    2007-12-01

    Surrogate data methods are resampling techniques related to the modern statistical bootstrap. The nonlinear dynamics community has promoted surrogate data as a useful tool for establishing the presence of nonlinear dynamics in experimental observations before applying more specific techniques such as nonlinear prediction. We propose to use surrogate data tests to search for evidence of transient nonlinear dynamics in seismographic data that act as a proxy for earthquake triggering mechanisms, such as fluid flow in the fault zone, failure cascades and slow prefatory slip, that signal changes in the coupling between geological boundaries. We will analyze the vertical component of broadband seismographic data recorded at 20Hz by the CI network of approximately 100 stations located throughout Southern California. We will focus on a period of six hours prior to seismic events of magnitude 4-5 located inside the CI network. Each seismographic record will be scanned for short, non-overlapping segments that pass a moderate stationarity criterion. We will then apply surrogate tests to each qualifying segment using three discriminating statistics: time reversal asymmetry, delay vector variance and zeroth-order nonlinear prediction error. We will correlate the results with known seismic activity and examine the spatial and temporal distribution of the surrogate test results for potential dynamical earthquake precursors.

  3. Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Year-Old Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? KidsHealth > For Parents > Can the Weather Affect My ... empeorar el asma de mi hijo? Weather and Asthma The effect of weather on asthma symptoms isn' ...

  4. Space Weather Services of Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Jangsuk, C.; Dong Kyu, K.; Jinyee, C.; Yeongoh, C.

    2016-12-01

    The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

  5. Space Weather Services of Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, KiChang; Kim, Jae-Hun; Kim, Young Yun; Kwon, Yongki; Wi, Gwan-sik

    2016-07-01

    The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

  6. Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities’ preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities’ capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change. PMID:27649547

  7. Love as a regulative ideal in surrogate decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stonestreet, Erica Lucast

    2014-10-01

    This discussion aims to give a normative theoretical basis for a "best judgment" model of surrogate decision making rooted in a regulative ideal of love. Currently, there are two basic models of surrogate decision making for incompetent patients: the "substituted judgment" model and the "best interests" model. The former draws on the value of autonomy and responds with respect; the latter draws on the value of welfare and responds with beneficence. It can be difficult to determine which of these two models is more appropriate for a given patient, and both approaches may seem inadequate for a surrogate who loves the patient. The proposed "best judgment" model effectively draws on the values incorporated in each of the traditional standards, but does so because these values are important to someone who loves a patient, since love responds to the patient as the specific person she is.

  8. Surrogate modeling for initial rotational stiffness of welded tubular joints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.R. Garifullin

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Recently, buildings and structures erected in Russia and abroad have to comply with stringent economic requirements. Buildings should not only be reliable and safe, have a beautiful architectural design, but also meet the criteria of rationality and energy efficiency. In practice, this usually means the need for additional comparative analysis in order to determine the optimal solution to the engineering task. Usually such an analysis is time-consuming and requires huge computational efforts. In this regard, surrogate modeling can be an effective tool for solving such problems. This article provides a brief description of surrogate models and the basic techniques of their construction, describes the construction process of a surrogate model to calculate initial rotational stiffness of welded RHS joints made of high strength steel (HSS.

  9. Disinfection byproduct regulatory compliance surrogates and bromide-associated risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolb, Chelsea; Francis, Royce A; VanBriesen, Jeanne M

    2017-08-01

    Natural and anthropogenic factors can alter bromide concentrations in drinking water sources. Increasing source water bromide concentrations increases the formation and alters the speciation of disinfection byproducts (DBPs) formed during drinking water treatment. Brominated DBPs are more toxic than their chlorinated analogs, and thus have a greater impact on human health. However, DBPs are regulated based on the mass sum of DBPs within a given class (e.g., trihalomethanes and haloacetic acids), not based on species-specific risk or extent of bromine incorporation. The regulated surrogate measures are intended to protect against not only the species they directly represent, but also against unregulated DBPs that are not routinely measured. Surrogates that do not incorporate effects of increasing bromide may not adequately capture human health risk associated with drinking water when source water bromide is elevated. The present study analyzes trihalomethanes (THMs), measured as TTHM, with varying source water bromide concentrations, and assesses its correlation with brominated THM, TTHM risk and species-specific THM concentrations and associated risk. Alternative potential surrogates are evaluated to assess their ability to capture THM risk under different source water bromide concentration conditions. The results of the present study indicate that TTHM does not adequately capture risk of the regulated species when source water bromide concentrations are elevated, and thus would also likely be an inadequate surrogate for many unregulated brominated species. Alternative surrogate measures, including THM3 and the bromodichloromethane concentration, are more robust surrogates for species-specific THM risk at varying source water bromide concentrations. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  10. Fast Prediction and Evaluation of Gravitational Waveforms Using Surrogate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott E. Field

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available We propose a solution to the problem of quickly and accurately predicting gravitational waveforms within any given physical model. The method is relevant for both real-time applications and more traditional scenarios where the generation of waveforms using standard methods can be prohibitively expensive. Our approach is based on three offline steps resulting in an accurate reduced order model in both parameter and physical dimensions that can be used as a surrogate for the true or fiducial waveform family. First, a set of m parameter values is determined using a greedy algorithm from which a reduced basis representation is constructed. Second, these m parameters induce the selection of m time values for interpolating a waveform time series using an empirical interpolant that is built for the fiducial waveform family. Third, a fit in the parameter dimension is performed for the waveform’s value at each of these m times. The cost of predicting L waveform time samples for a generic parameter choice is of order O(mL+mc_{fit} online operations, where c_{fit} denotes the fitting function operation count and, typically, m≪L. The result is a compact, computationally efficient, and accurate surrogate model that retains the original physics of the fiducial waveform family while also being fast to evaluate. We generate accurate surrogate models for effective-one-body waveforms of nonspinning binary black hole coalescences with durations as long as 10^{5}M, mass ratios from 1 to 10, and for multiple spherical harmonic modes. We find that these surrogates are more than 3 orders of magnitude faster to evaluate as compared to the cost of generating effective-one-body waveforms in standard ways. Surrogate model building for other waveform families and models follows the same steps and has the same low computational online scaling cost. For expensive numerical simulations of binary black hole coalescences, we thus anticipate extremely large speedups in

  11. Optimization using surrogate models - by the space mapping technique

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søndergaard, Jacob

    2003-01-01

    mapping surrogate has a lower approximation error for long steps. For short steps, however, the Taylor model of the expensive model is best, due to exact interpolation at the model origin. Five algorithms for space mapping optimization are presented and the numerical performance is evaluated. Three...... conditions are satisfied. So hybrid methods, combining the space mapping technique with classical optimization methods, should be used if convergence to high accuracy is wanted. Approximation abilities of the space mapping surrogate are compared with those of a Taylor model of the expensive model. The space...

  12. Optimization using surrogate models - by the space mapping technique

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søndergaard, Jacob

    2003-01-01

    mapping surrogate has a lower approximation error for long steps. For short steps, however, the Taylor model of the expensive model is best, due to exact interpolation at the model origin. Five algorithms for space mapping optimization are presented and the numerical performance is evaluated. Three...... conditions are satisfied. So hybrid methods, combining the space mapping technique with classical optimization methods, should be used if convergence to high accuracy is wanted. Approximation abilities of the space mapping surrogate are compared with those of a Taylor model of the expensive model. The space...

  13. The Weather in Richmond

    OpenAIRE

    Harless, William Edwin

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT: The Weather in Richmond is a short documentary about the Oilers, the football team at Richmond High School in downtown Richmond, California, as they struggle in 2012 with the legacy of winning no games, with the exception of a forfeit, in two years. The video documents the city of Richmond’s poverty and violence, but it also is an account of the city’s cultural diversity, of the city’s industrial history and of the hopes of some of the people who grow up there. The...

  14. Combating bad weather

    CERN Document Server

    Mukhopadhyay, Sudipta

    2015-01-01

    Every year lives and properties are lost in road accidents. About one-fourth of these accidents are due to low vision in foggy weather. At present, there is no algorithm that is specifically designed for the removal of fog from videos. Application of a single-image fog removal algorithm over each video frame is a time-consuming and costly affair. It is demonstrated that with the intelligent use of temporal redundancy, fog removal algorithms designed for a single image can be extended to the real-time video application. Results confirm that the presented framework used for the extension of the

  15. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

  16. NASA Space Weather Center Services: Potential for Space Weather Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Masha; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.; Hesse, M.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Space Weather Center's primary objective is to provide the latest space weather information and forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and its partners and to bring space weather knowledge to the public. At the same time, the tools and services it possesses can be invaluable for research purposes. Here we show how our archive and real-time modeling of space weather events can aid research in a variety of ways, with different classification criteria. We will list and discuss major CME events, major geomagnetic storms, and major SEP events that occurred during the years 2010 - 2012. Highlights of major tools/resources will be provided.

  17. Road Weather and Connected Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisano, P.; Boyce, B. C.

    2015-12-01

    On average, there are over 5.8 M vehicle crashes each year of which 23% are weather-related. Weather-related crashes are defined as those crashes that occur in adverse weather or on slick pavement. The vast majority of weather-related crashes happen on wet pavement (74%) and during rainfall (46%). Connected vehicle technologies hold the promise to transform road-weather management by providing improved road weather data in real time with greater temporal and geographic accuracy. This will dramatically expand the amount of data that can be used to assess, forecast, and address the impacts that weather has on roads, vehicles, and travelers. The use of vehicle-based measurements of the road and surrounding atmosphere with other, more traditional weather data sources, and create road and atmospheric hazard products for a variety of users. The broad availability of road weather data from mobile sources will vastly improve the ability to detect and forecast weather and road conditions, and will provide the capability to manage road-weather response on specific roadway links. The RWMP is currently demonstrating how weather, road conditions, and related vehicle data can be used for decision making through an innovative Integrated Mobile Observations project. FHWA is partnering with 3 DOTs (MN, MI, & NV) to pilot these applications. One is a mobile alerts application called the Motorists Advisories and Warnings (MAW) and a maintenance decision support application. These applications blend traditional weather information (e.g., radar, surface stations) with mobile vehicle data (e.g., temperature, brake status, wiper status) to determine current weather conditions. These weather conditions, and other road-travel-relevant information, are provided to users via web and phone applications. The MAW provides nowcasts and short-term forecasts out to 24 hours while the EMDSS application can provide forecasts up to 72 hours in advance. The three DOTs have placed readers and external

  18. Rough weather rescue

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-07-01

    This report, which was commissioned by the Offshore Division of the Health and Safety Executive, reviews the type of equipment and techniques used to rescue people from the water around offshore platforms in rough weather. It also examines the limitations of the equipment in extreme conditions and reports the views of the various industry sectors (as determined by a questionnaire survey). The type of incidents covered by the report include: man overboard; helicopter ditching; and evacuation from totally enclosed motor propelled survival craft (TEMPSC) and life rafts. The report considers: the approach taken by other oil-producing countries; current escape, evacuation and rescue (EER) practices for the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS); environmental limits; methods for rescue and recovery from the water and TEMPSC; launch and recovery systems; fast rescue craft (FSC) and daughter craft; emergency response and rescue vessels; helicopters; casualty personal protection equipment; claimed versus actual equipment performance; training and practice procedures; attitudes to environmental limits; lessons learnt from incidents; mechanical recovery devices; equipment design and use in rough weather; and recommendations for improvements.

  19. Weatherization Apprenticeship Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, Eric J

    2012-12-18

    Weatherization improvement services will be provided to Native people by Native people. The proposed project will recruit, train and hire two full-time weatherization technicians who will improve the energy efficiency of homes of Alaska Natives/American Indians residing in the Indian areas, within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska. The Region includes Anchorage as well as 8 small tribal villages: The Native Villages of Eklutna, Knik, Chickaloon, Seldovia, Ninilchik, Kenaitze, Salamatof, and Tyonek. This project will be a partnership between three entities, with Cook Inlet Tribal Council (CITC) as the lead agency: CITCA's Employment and Training Services Department, Cook Inlet Housing Authority and Alaska Works Partnership. Additionally, six of the eight tribal villages within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska have agreed to work with the project in order to improve the energy efficiency of their tribally owned buildings and homes. The remaining three villages will be invited to participate in the establishment of an intertribal consortium through this project. Tribal homes and buildings within Anchorage fall under Cook Inlet Region, Inc. (CIRI) tribal authority.

  20. Weathering of rock 'Ginger'

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    One of the more unusual rocks at the site is Ginger, located southeast of the lander. Parts of it have the reddest color of any material in view, whereas its rounded lobes are gray and relatively unweathered. These color differences are brought out in the inset, enhanced at the upper right. In the false color image at the lower right, the shape of the visible-wavelength spectrum (related to the abundance of weathered ferric iron minerals) is indicated by the hue of the rocks. Blue indicates relatively unweathered rocks. Typical soils and drift, which are heavily weathered, are shown in green and flesh tones. The very red color in the creases in the rock surface correspond to a crust of ferric minerals. The origin of the rock is uncertain; the ferric crust may have grown underneath the rock, or it may cement pebbles together into a conglomerate. Ginger will be a target of future super-resolution studies to better constrain its origin.Mars Pathfinder is the second in NASA's Discovery program of low-cost spacecraft with highly focused science goals. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, developed and manages the Mars Pathfinder mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, D.C. The Imager for Mars Pathfinder (IMP) was developed by the University of Arizona Lunar and Planetary Laboratory under contract to JPL. Peter Smith is the Principal Investigator. JPL is an operating division of the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

  1. Space Weather- Physics and Effects

    CERN Document Server

    Bothmer, Volker

    2007-01-01

    This book is a state-of-the-art review on the physics of space weather and on space weather impacts on human technology, including manned spaceflight. With contributions from a team of international experts, this comprehensive work covers all aspects of space weather physical processes, and all known aspects of space hazards from humans, both in space and on Earth. Space Weather - Physics and Effects provides the first comprehensive, scientific background of space storms caused by the sun and its impact on geospace focuses on weather issues that have become vital for the development of nationwide technological infrastructures explains magnetic storms on Earth, including the effects of EUV radiation on the atmosphere is an invaluable aid in establishing real-time weather forecasts details the threat that solar effects might have on modern telecommunication systems, including national power grid systems, aircraft and manned spaceflight.

  2. Weather Forecasting Systems and Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mecikalski, John (Inventor); MacKenzie, Wayne M., Jr. (Inventor); Walker, John Robert (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    A weather forecasting system has weather forecasting logic that receives raw image data from a satellite. The raw image data has values indicative of light and radiance data from the Earth as measured by the satellite, and the weather forecasting logic processes such data to identify cumulus clouds within the satellite images. For each identified cumulus cloud, the weather forecasting logic applies interest field tests to determine a score indicating the likelihood of the cumulus cloud forming precipitation and/or lightning in the future within a certain time period. Based on such scores, the weather forecasting logic predicts in which geographic regions the identified cumulus clouds will produce precipitation and/or lighting within during the time period. Such predictions may then be used to provide a weather map thereby providing users with a graphical illustration of the areas predicted to be affected by precipitation within the time period.

  3. Small Sensors for Space Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholas, A. C.

    2015-12-01

    The Naval Research Laboratory is actively pursuing enhancing the nation's space weather sensing capability. One aspect of this plan is the concept of flying Space Weather sensor suites on host spacecraft as secondary payloads. The emergence and advancement of the CubeSat spacecraft architecture has produced a viable platform for scientifically and operationally relevant Space Weather sensing. This talk will provide an overview of NRL's low size weight and power sensor technologies targeting Space Weather measurements. A summary of on-orbit results of past and current missions will be presented, as well as an overview of future flights that are manifested and potential constellation missions.

  4. Bishop Paiute Weatherization Training Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carlos Hernandez

    2010-01-28

    The DOE Weatherization Training Grant assisted Native American trainees in developing weatherization competencies, creating employment opportunities for Bishop Paiute tribal members in a growing field. The trainees completed all the necessary training and certification requirements and delivered high-quality weatherization services on the Bishop Paiute Reservation. Six tribal members received all three certifications for weatherization; four of the trainees are currently employed. The public benefit includes (1) development of marketable skills by low-income Native individuals, (2) employment for low-income Native individuals in a growing industry, and (3) economic development opportunities that were previously not available to these individuals or the Tribe.

  5. Summary of Remediated Nitrate Salt Surrogate Formulation and Testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Geoffrey Wayne [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Leonard, Philip [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Hartline, Ernest Leon [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Tian, Hongzhao [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-05

    High Explosives Science and Technology (M-7) completed all required formulation and testing of Remediated Nitrate Salt (RNS) surrogates on April 27, 2016 as specified in PLAN-TA9-2443 Rev B, "Remediated Nitrate Salt (RNS) Surrogate Formulation and Testing Standard Procedure", released February 16, 2016. This report summarizes the results of the work and also includes additional documentation required in that test plan. All formulation and testing was carried out according to PLAN-TA9-2443 Rev B. The work was carried out in three rounds, with the full matrix of samples formulated and tested in each round. Results from the first round of formulation and testing were documented in memorandum M7-J6-6042, " Results from First Round of Remediated Nitrate Salt Surrogate Formulation and Testing." Results from the second round of formulation and testing were documented in M7-16-6053 , "Results from the Second Round of Remediated Nitrate Salt Surrogate Formulation and Testing." Initial results from the third round were documented in M7-16-6057, "Initial Results from the Third Round of Remediated Nitrate Salt Formulation and Testing."

  6. Frequency response as a surrogate eigenvalue problem in topology optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreassen, Erik; Ferrari, Federico; Sigmund, Ole

    2017-01-01

    This article discusses the use of frequency response surrogates for eigenvalue optimization problems in topology optimization that may be used to avoid solving the eigenvalue problem. The motivation is to avoid complications that arise from multiple eigenvalues and the computational complexity as...

  7. GENERATING SOPHISTICATED SPATIAL SURROGATES USING THE MIMS SPATIAL ALLOCATOR

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Multimedia Integrated Modeling System (MIMS) Spatial Allocator is open-source software for generating spatial surrogates for emissions modeling, changing the map projection of Shapefiles, and performing other types of spatial allocation that does not require the use of a comm...

  8. Strength Reliability Analysis of Turbine Blade Using Surrogate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Duan

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available There are many stochastic parameters that have an effect on the reliability of steam turbine blades performance in practical operation. In order to improve the reliability of blade design, it is necessary to take these stochastic parameters into account. In this study, a variable cross-section twisted blade is investigated and geometrical parameters, material parameters and load parameters are considered as random variables. A reliability analysis method as a combination of a Finite Element Method (FEM, a surrogate model and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS, is applied to solve the blade reliability analysis. Based on the blade finite element parametrical model and the experimental design, two kinds of surrogate models, Polynomial Response Surface (PRS and Artificial Neural Network (ANN, are applied to construct the approximation analytical expressions between the blade responses (including maximum stress and deflection and random input variables, which act as a surrogate of finite element solver to drastically reduce the number of simulations required. Then the surrogate is used for most of the samples needed in the Monte Carlo method and the statistical parameters and cumulative distribution functions of the maximum stress and deflection are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the probabilistic sensitivities analysis, which combines the magnitude of the gradient and the width of the scatter range of the random input variables, is applied to evaluate how much the maximum stress and deflection of the blade are influenced by the random nature of input parameters.

  9. Recent Progress in the Development of Diesel Surrogate Fuels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pitz, W J

    2009-09-04

    There has been much recent progress in the area of surrogate fuels for diesel. In the last few years, experiments and modeling have been performed on higher molecular weight components of relevance to diesel fuel such as n-hexadecane (n-cetane) and 2,2,4,4,6,8,8-heptamethylnonane (iso-cetane). Chemical kinetic models have been developed for all the n-alkanes up to 16 carbon atoms. Also, there has been much experimental and modeling work on lower molecular weight surrogate components such as n-decane and do-decane which are most relevant to jet fuel surrogates, but are also relevant to diesel surrogates where simulation of the full boiling point range is desired. For the cycloalkanes, experimental work on decalin and tetralin recently has been published. For multi-component surrogate fuel mixtures, recent work on modeling of these mixtures and comparisons to real diesel fuel is reviewed. Detailed chemical kinetic models for surrogate fuels are very large in size. Significant progress also has been made in improving the mechanism reduction tools that are needed to make these large models practicable in multidimensional reacting flow simulations of diesel combustion. Nevertheless, major research gaps remain. In the case of iso-alkanes, there are experiments and modeling work on only one of relevance to diesel: iso-cetane. Also, the iso-alkanes in diesel are lightly branched and no detailed chemical kinetic models or experimental investigations are available for such compounds. More components are needed to fill out the iso-alkane boiling point range. For the aromatic class of compounds, there has been no new work for compounds in the boiling point range of diesel. Most of the new work has been on alkyl aromatics that are of the range C7 to C8, below the C10 to C20 range that is needed. For the chemical class of cycloalkanes, experiments and modeling on higher molecular weight components are warranted. Finally for multi-component surrogates needed to treat real diesel

  10. Recent Progress in the Development of Diesel Surrogate Fuels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pitz, W J; Mueller, C J

    2009-12-09

    There has been much recent progress in the area of surrogate fuels for diesel. In the last few years, experiments and modeling have been performed on higher molecular weight components of relevance to diesel fuel such as n-hexadecane (n-cetane) and 2,2,4,4,6,8,8-heptamethylnonane (iso-cetane). Chemical kinetic models have been developed for all the n-alkanes up to 16 carbon atoms. Also, there has been much experimental and modeling work on lower molecular weight surrogate components such as n-decane and n-dodecane that are most relevant to jet fuel surrogates, but are also relevant to diesel surrogates where simulation of the full boiling point range is desired. For two-ring compounds, experimental work on decalin and tetralin recently has been published. For multi-component surrogate fuel mixtures, recent work on modeling of these mixtures and comparisons to real diesel fuel is reviewed. Detailed chemical kinetic models for surrogate fuels are very large in size. Significant progress also has been made in improving the mechanism reduction tools that are needed to make these large models practicable in multi-dimensional reacting flow simulations of diesel combustion. Nevertheless, major research gaps remain. In the case of iso-alkanes, there are experiments and modeling work on only one of relevance to diesel: iso-cetane. Also, the iso-alkanes in diesel are lightly branched and no detailed chemical kinetic models or experimental investigations are available for such compounds. More components are needed to fill out the iso-alkane boiling point range. For the aromatic class of compounds, there has been no new work for compounds in the boiling point range of diesel. Most of the new work has been on alkyl aromatics that are of the range C7 to C8, below the C10 to C20 range that is needed. For the chemical class of cycloalkanes, experiments and modeling on higher molecular weight components are warranted. Finally for multi-component surrogates needed to treat real

  11. Development of a Human Cranial Bone Surrogate for Impact Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Jack C; Merkle, Andrew C; Carneal, Catherine M; Voo, Liming M; Johannes, Matthew S; Paulson, Jeff M; Tankard, Sara; Uy, O Manny

    2013-01-01

    In order to replicate the fracture behavior of the intact human skull under impact it becomes necessary to develop a material having the mechanical properties of cranial bone. The most important properties to replicate in a surrogate human skull were found to be the fracture toughness and tensile strength of the cranial tables as well as the bending strength of the three-layer (inner table-diplöe-outer table) architecture of the human skull. The materials selected to represent the surrogate cranial tables consisted of two different epoxy resins systems with random milled glass fiber to enhance the strength and stiffness and the materials to represent the surrogate diplöe consisted of three low density foams. Forty-one three-point bending fracture toughness tests were performed on nine material combinations. The materials that best represented the fracture toughness of cranial tables were then selected and formed into tensile samples and tested. These materials were then used with the two surrogate diplöe foam materials to create the three-layer surrogate cranial bone samples for three-point bending tests. Drop tower tests were performed on flat samples created from these materials and the fracture patterns were very similar to the linear fractures in pendulum impacts of intact human skulls, previously reported in the literature. The surrogate cranial tables had the quasi-static fracture toughness and tensile strength of 2.5 MPa√ m and 53 ± 4.9 MPa, respectively, while the same properties of human compact bone were 3.1 ± 1.8 MPa√ m and 68 ± 18 MPa, respectively. The cranial surrogate had a quasi-static bending strength of 68 ± 5.7 MPa, while that of cranial bone was 82 ± 26 MPa. This material/design is currently being used to construct spherical shell samples for drop tower and ballistic tests.

  12. Hall et al., 2016 Artificial Turf Surrogate Surface Methods Paper Data File

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Mercury dry deposition data quantified via static water surrogate surface (SWSS) and artificial turf surrogate surface (ATSS) collectors. This dataset is associated...

  13. Using Forecasting to Teach Weather Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsubota, Y.; Takahashi, T.

    2009-09-01

    Weather affects our lives and hence, is a popular topic in daily conversations and in the media. Therefore, it is not only important to teach weather, but is also a good idea to use 'weather' as a topic in science teaching. Science education has two main objectives: to acquire scientific concepts and methods. Weather forecasting is an adequate theme to teach scientific methods because it is dependent on observation. However, it is not easy to forecast weather using only temporal observation. We need to know the tendency of 'weather change' via consecutive and/or continuous weather observation. Students will acquire scientific-observation skills through weather observation. Data-processing skills would be enhanced through a weather-forecasting contest. A contest should be announced within 5 days of school events, such as a school excursion and field day. Students submit their own weather forecast by gathering weather information through the internet, news paper and so on. A weather-forecasting contest compels the student to observe the weather more often. We currently have some different weather forecasts. For example, American weather-related companies such as ACCU weather and Weather Channel provide weather forecast for the many locations all over the world. Comparing these weather forecasting with actual weather, participants such as students could evaluate the differences between forecasted and actual temperatures. Participants will judge the best weather forecast based on the magnitude of the difference. Also, participants evaluate the 'hitting ratio' of each weather forecast. Students can learn elementary statistics by comparing various weather forecasts. We have developed our weather web-site that provides our own weather forecasting and observation. Students acquire science skills using our weather web-site. We will report our lessen plans and explain our weather web-site.

  14. Weather Fundamentals: Hurricanes & Tornadoes. [Videotape].

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998

    The videos in this educational series, for grades 4-7, help students understand the science behind weather phenomena through dramatic live-action footage, vivid animated graphics, detailed weather maps, and hands-on experiments. This episode (23 minutes) features information on the deadliest and most destructive storms on Earth. Through satellite…

  15. Tibetan History of Weather Monitoring

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2004-01-01

    Modem weather monitoring began in Tibet at the end of the 19th century. In 1894, the British set up a weather monitoting station in Chunpei of Yadong,which continued to operate until August 1956. In the 1940s, the Nationalist Govemment's Ministry of Communications set up a rainfall measuring station in Qamdo, Xikang Province.

  16. Weather Modification: Finding Common Ground.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garstang, Michael; Bruintjes, Roelof; Serafin, Robert; Orville, Harold; Boe, Bruce; Cotton, William; Warburton, Joseph

    2005-05-01

    Research and operational approaches to weather modification expressed in the National Research Council's 2003 report on “Critical Issues in Weather Modification Research” and in the Weather Modification Association's response to that report form the basis for this discussion. There is agreement that advances in the past few decades over a broad front of understanding physical processes and in technology have not been comprehensively applied to weather modification. Such advances need to be capitalized upon in the form of a concerted and sustained national effort to carry out basic and applied research in weather modification. The need for credible scientific evidence and the pressure for action should be resolved. Differences in the perception of current knowledge, the utility of numerical models, and the specific needs of research and operations in weather modification must be addressed. The increasing demand for water and the cost to society inflicted by severe weather require that the intellectual, technical, and administrative resources of the nation be combined to resolve whether and to what degree humans can influence the weather.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation

  17. Japanese space weather research activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishii, M.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we present existing and planned Japanese space weather research activities. The program consists of several core elements, including a space weather prediction system using numerical forecasts, a large-scale ground-based observation network, and the cooperative framework "Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP)" based on a Grant-in Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas.

  18. Weather to Make a Decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoyle, Julie E.; Mjelde, James W.; Litzenberg, Kerry K.

    2006-01-01

    DECIDE is a teacher-friendly, integrated approach designed to stimulate learning by allowing students to make decisions about situations they face in their lives while using scientific weather principles. This learning unit integrates weather science, decision theory, mathematics, statistics, geography, and reading in a context of decision…

  19. Sequential optimization of strip bending process using multiquadric radial basis function surrogate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Havinga, Gosse Tjipke; van den Boogaard, Antonius H.; Klaseboer, G.

    2013-01-01

    Surrogate models are used within the sequential optimization strategy for forming processes. A sequential improvement (SI) scheme is used to refine the surrogate model in the optimal region. One of the popular surrogate modeling methods for SI is Kriging. However, the global response of Kriging mode

  20. Cool Stars and Space Weather

    CERN Document Server

    Vidotto, A A; Cameron, A C; Morin, J; Villadsen, J; Saar, S; Alvarado, J; Cohen, O; Holzwarth, V; Poppenhaeger, K; Reville, V

    2014-01-01

    Stellar flares, winds and coronal mass ejections form the space weather. They are signatures of the magnetic activity of cool stars and, since activity varies with age, mass and rotation, the space weather that extra-solar planets experience can be very different from the one encountered by the solar system planets. How do stellar activity and magnetism influence the space weather of exoplanets orbiting main-sequence stars? How do the environments surrounding exoplanets differ from those around the planets in our own solar system? How can the detailed knowledge acquired by the solar system community be applied in exoplanetary systems? How does space weather affect habitability? These were questions that were addressed in the splinter session "Cool stars and Space Weather", that took place on 9 Jun 2014, during the Cool Stars 18 meeting. In this paper, we present a summary of the contributions made to this session.

  1. Detection of Weather Radar Clutter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøvith, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Weather radars provide valuable information on precipitation in the atmosphere but due to the way radars work, not only precipitation is observed by the weather radar. Weather radar clutter, echoes from non-precipitating targets, occur frequently in the data, resulting in lowered data quality....... Especially in the application of weather radar data in quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting a high data quality is important. Clutter detection is one of the key components in achieving this goal. This thesis presents three methods for detection of clutter. The methods use supervised...... and precipitating and non-precipitating clouds. Another method uses the difference in the motion field of clutter and precipitation measured between two radar images. Furthermore, the direction of the wind field extracted from a weather model is used. The third method uses information about the refractive index...

  2. Artificial weathering of granite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silva Hermo, B.

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This article summarizes a series of artificial weathering tests run on granite designed to: simulate the action of weathering agents on buildings and identify the underlying mechanisms, determine the salt resistance of different types of rock; evaluate consolidation and water-repellent treatment durability; and confirm hypotheses about the origin of salts such as gypsum that are often found in granite buildings. Salt crystallization tests were also conducted, using sodium chloride, sodium sulphate, calcium sulphate and seawater solutions. One of these tests was conducted in a chamber specifically designed to simulate salt spray weathering and another in an SO2 chamber to ascertain whether granite is subject to sulphation. The test results are analyzed and discussed, along with the shortcomings of each type of trial as a method for simulating the decay observed in monuments. The effect of factors such as wet-dry conditions, type of saline solution and the position of the planes of weakness on the type of decay is also addressed.En este trabajo se hace una síntesis de varios ensayos de alteración artificial realizados con rocas graníticas. Estos ensayos tenían distintos objetivos: reproducir las formas de alteración encontradas en los edificios para llegar a conocer los mecanismos que las generan, determinar la resistencia de las diferentes rocas a la acción de las sales, evaluar la durabilidad de tratamientos de consolidación e hidrofugación y constatar hipótesis acerca del origen de algunas sales, como el yeso, que aparecen frecuentemente en edificios graníticos. En los ensayos de cristalización de sales se utilizaron disoluciones de cloruro de sodio, sulfato de sodio, sulfato de calcio y agua de mar. Uno de estos ensayos se llevó a cabo en una cámara especialmente diseñada para reproducir la alteración por aerosol marino y otro se realizó en una cámara de SO2, con el objeto de comprobar si en rocas graníticas se puede producir

  3. Space weathering of asteroids

    CERN Document Server

    Shestopalov, D I; Cloutis, E A

    2012-01-01

    Analysis of laboratory experiments simulating space weathering optical effects on atmosphereless planetary bodies reveals that the time needed to alter the spectrum of an ordinary chondrite meteorite to resemble the overall spectral shape and slope of an S-type asteroid is about ~ 0.1 Myr. The time required to reduce the visible albedo of samples to ~ 0.05 is ~ 1 Myr. Since both these timescales are much less than the average collisional lifetime of asteroids larger than several kilometers in size, numerous low-albedo asteroids having reddish spectra with subdued absorption bands should be observed instead of an S-type dominated population. It is not the case because asteroid surfaces cannot be considered as undisturbed, unlike laboratory samples. We have estimated the number of collisions occurring in the time of 105 yr between asteroids and projectiles of various sizes and show that impact-activated motions of regolith particles counteract the progress of optical maturation of asteroid surfaces. Continual r...

  4. Cold-Weather Sports and Your Family

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Feeding Your 1- to 2-Year-Old Cold-Weather Sports and Your Family KidsHealth > For Parents > Cold- ... once the weather turns frosty. Beating the Cold-Weather Blahs Once a chill is in the air, ...

  5. Space weathering on airless bodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pieters, Carle M.; Noble, Sarah K.

    2016-10-01

    Space weathering refers to alteration that occurs in the space environment with time. Lunar samples, and to some extent meteorites, have provided a benchmark for understanding the processes and products of space weathering. Lunar soils are derived principally from local materials but have accumulated a range of optically active opaque particles (OAOpq) that include nanophase metallic iron on/in rims formed on individual grains (imparting a red slope to visible and near-infrared reflectance) and larger iron particles (which darken across all wavelengths) such as are often found within the interior of recycled grains. Space weathering of other anhydrous silicate bodies, such as Mercury and some asteroids, produces different forms and relative abundance of OAOpq particles depending on the particular environment. If the development of OAOpq particles is minimized (such as at Vesta), contamination by exogenic material and regolith mixing become the dominant space weathering processes. Volatile-rich bodies and those composed of abundant hydrous minerals (dwarf planet Ceres, many dark asteroids, and outer solar system satellites) are affected by space weathering processes differently than the silicate bodies of the inner solar system. However, the space weathering products of these bodies are currently poorly understood and the physics and chemistry of space weathering processes in different environments are areas of active research.

  6. Very Short Literature Survey From Supervised Learning To Surrogate Modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Brusan, Altay

    2012-01-01

    The past century was era of linear systems. Either systems (especially industrial ones) were simple (quasi)linear or linear approximations were accurate enough. In addition, just at the ending decades of the century profusion of computing devices were available, before then due to lack of computational resources it was not easy to evaluate available nonlinear system studies. At the moment both these two conditions changed, systems are highly complex and also pervasive amount of computation strength is cheap and easy to achieve. For recent era, a new branch of supervised learning well known as surrogate modeling (meta-modeling, surface modeling) has been devised which aimed at answering new needs of modeling realm. This short literature survey is on to introduce surrogate modeling to whom is familiar with the concepts of supervised learning. Necessity, challenges and visions of the topic are considered.

  7. A Parallel and Distributed Surrogate Model Implementation for Computational Steering

    KAUST Repository

    Butnaru, Daniel

    2012-06-01

    Understanding the influence of multiple parameters in a complex simulation setting is a difficult task. In the ideal case, the scientist can freely steer such a simulation and is immediately presented with the results for a certain configuration of the input parameters. Such an exploration process is however not possible if the simulation is computationally too expensive. For these cases we present in this paper a scalable computational steering approach utilizing a fast surrogate model as substitute for the time-consuming simulation. The surrogate model we propose is based on the sparse grid technique, and we identify the main computational tasks associated with its evaluation and its extension. We further show how distributed data management combined with the specific use of accelerators allows us to approximate and deliver simulation results to a high-resolution visualization system in real-time. This significantly enhances the steering workflow and facilitates the interactive exploration of large datasets. © 2012 IEEE.

  8. The Theory and Practice of Surrogate Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wendler, David

    2017-01-01

    When a patient lacks decision-making capacity and has not left a clear advance directive, there is now widespread agreement that patient-designated and next-of-kin surrogates should implement substituted judgment within a process of shared decision-making. Specifically, after discussing the "best scientific evidence available, as well as the patient's values, goals, and preferences" with the patient's clinicians, the patient-designated or next-of-kin surrogate should attempt to determine what decision the patient would have made in the circumstances. To the extent that this approach works, it seems to provide about as much respect for the autonomy of incapacitated patients as we could ask for. But, as articles in this issue of the Report by Jeffrey Berger and by Ellen Robinson and colleagues emphasize, reality presents challenges. © 2017 The Hastings Center.

  9. Commercial agencies and surrogate motherhood: a transaction cost approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galbraith, Mhairi; McLachlan, Hugh V; Swales, J Kim

    2005-03-01

    In this paper we investigate the legal arrangements involved in UK surrogate motherhood from a transaction-cost perspective. We outline the specific forms the transaction costs take and critically comment on the way in which the UK institutional and organisational arrangements at present adversely influence transaction costs. We then focus specifically on the potential role of surrogacy agencies and look at UK and US evidence on commercial and voluntary agencies. Policy implications follow.

  10. Quantification of the Relationship between Surrogate Fuel Structure and Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-31

    cycloperoxy-5-yl (BICYC5.O2) and bicyclo[2,2,1]hexene peroxy (C2O2H221) radicals . The latter route leads to the formation of vinyl ketene and the formyl ...3089 selection of stable molecule and radicals . The adopted calculation method for the determination of such data is outlined in Appendix 1...chemistry of aromatic fuel components used in surrogate fuels and the importance of the cyclopentadi- enyl radical in poly-aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH

  11. Biopolicies and biotechnologies: reflections on surrogate maternity in India

    OpenAIRE

    Mónica Amador

    2010-01-01

    This article explores the impact of biotechnology, particularly on assisted reproductive technologies such as surrogate motherhood. The study is based on interviews and field work conducted in the city of Hyderabad in India within the frame of the seminar on “Research Methodology” given by Dr. Rohan D´Souza at the Centre for Studies in Science Policy at the Jawaharlal Nehru University in India. The theoretical framework of this analysis focuses on exploring concepts such as cyborg (Haraway,19...

  12. Regression calibration with more surrogates than mismeasured variables

    KAUST Repository

    Kipnis, Victor

    2012-06-29

    In a recent paper (Weller EA, Milton DK, Eisen EA, Spiegelman D. Regression calibration for logistic regression with multiple surrogates for one exposure. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 2007; 137: 449-461), the authors discussed fitting logistic regression models when a scalar main explanatory variable is measured with error by several surrogates, that is, a situation with more surrogates than variables measured with error. They compared two methods of adjusting for measurement error using a regression calibration approximate model as if it were exact. One is the standard regression calibration approach consisting of substituting an estimated conditional expectation of the true covariate given observed data in the logistic regression. The other is a novel two-stage approach when the logistic regression is fitted to multiple surrogates, and then a linear combination of estimated slopes is formed as the estimate of interest. Applying estimated asymptotic variances for both methods in a single data set with some sensitivity analysis, the authors asserted superiority of their two-stage approach. We investigate this claim in some detail. A troubling aspect of the proposed two-stage method is that, unlike standard regression calibration and a natural form of maximum likelihood, the resulting estimates are not invariant to reparameterization of nuisance parameters in the model. We show, however, that, under the regression calibration approximation, the two-stage method is asymptotically equivalent to a maximum likelihood formulation, and is therefore in theory superior to standard regression calibration. However, our extensive finite-sample simulations in the practically important parameter space where the regression calibration model provides a good approximation failed to uncover such superiority of the two-stage method. We also discuss extensions to different data structures.

  13. Biopolicies and biotechnologies: reflections on surrogate maternity in India

    OpenAIRE

    Mónica Amador

    2010-01-01

    This article explores the impact of biotechnology, particularly on assisted reproductive technologies such as surrogate motherhood. The study is based on interviews and field work conducted in the city of Hyderabad in India within the frame of the seminar on “Research Methodology” given by Dr. Rohan D´Souza at the Centre for Studies in Science Policy at the Jawaharlal Nehru University in India. The theoretical framework of this analysis focuses on exploring concepts such as cyborg (Haraway,19...

  14. Space Weather Forecasting: An Enigma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sojka, J. J.

    2012-12-01

    The space age began in earnest on October 4, 1957 with the launch of Sputnik 1 and was fuelled for over a decade by very strong national societal concerns. Prior to this single event the adverse effects of space weather had been registered on telegraph lines as well as interference on early WWII radar systems, while for countless eons the beauty of space weather as mid-latitude auroral displays were much appreciated. These prior space weather impacts were in themselves only a low-level science puzzle pursued by a few dedicated researchers. The technology boost and innovation that the post Sputnik era generated has almost single handedly defined our present day societal technology infrastructure. During the decade following Neil's walk on the moon on July 21, 1969 an international thrust to understand the science of space, and its weather, was in progress. However, the search for scientific understand was parsed into independent "stove pipe" categories: The ionosphere-aeronomy, the magnetosphere, the heliosphere-sun. The present day scientific infrastructure of funding agencies, learned societies, and international organizations are still hampered by these 1960's logical divisions which today are outdated in the pursuit of understanding space weather. As this era of intensive and well funded scientific research progressed so did societies innovative uses for space technologies and space "spin-offs". Well over a decade ago leaders in technology, science, and the military realized that there was indeed an adverse side to space weather that with each passing year became more severe. In 1994 several U.S. agencies established the National Space Weather Program (NSWP) to focus scientific attention on the system wide issue of the adverse effects of space weather on society and its technologies. Indeed for the past two decades a significant fraction of the scientific community has actively engaged in understanding space weather and hence crossing the "stove

  15. Extreme Weather and Natural Disasters

    CERN Document Server

    Healey, Justin

    2012-01-01

    Australia is a vast land in which weather varies significantly in different parts of the continent. Recent extreme weather events in Australia, such as the Queensland floods and Victorian bushfires, are brutal reminders of nature's devastating power. Is global warming increasing the rate of natural disasters? What part do La Niña and El Niño play in the extreme weather cycle? Cyclones, floods, severe storms, bushfires, landslides, earthquakes, tsunamis - what are the natural and man-made causes of these phenomena, how predictable are they, and how prepared are we for the impacts of natural dis

  16. Diaphragm as an anatomic surrogate for lung tumor motion

    CERN Document Server

    Cervino, Laura I; Sandhu, Ajay; Jiang, Steve B

    2009-01-01

    Lung tumor motion due to respiration poses a challenge in the application of modern three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy. Direct tracking of the lung tumor during radiation therapy is very difficult without implanted fiducial markers. Indirect tracking relies on the correlation of the tumor's motion and the surrogate's motion. The present paper presents an analysis of the correlation between the tumor motion and the diaphragm motion in order to evaluate the potential use of diaphragm as a surrogate for tumor motion. We have analyzed the correlation between diaphragm motion and superior-inferior lung tumor motion in 32 fluoroscopic image sequences from 10 lung cancer patients. A simple linear model and a more complex linear model that accounts for phase delays between the two motions have been used. Results show that the diaphragm is a good surrogate for tumor motion prediction for most patients, resulting in an average correlation factor of 0.94 and 0.98 with each model respectively. The model that accoun...

  17. The Confucian bioethics of surrogate decision making: its communitarian roots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Ruiping

    2011-10-01

    The family is the exemplar community of Chinese society. This essay explores how Chinese communitarian norms, expressed in thick commitments to the authority and autonomy of the family, are central to contemporary Chinese bioethics. In particular, it focuses on the issue of surrogate decision making to illustrate the Confucian family-grounded communitarian bioethics. The essay first describes the way in which the family, in Chinese bioethics, functions as a whole to provide consent for significant medical and surgical interventions when a patient has lost decision-making capacity. It is argued that the practice of not having an established order for surrogate decision makers (e.g., spouse, children, and then parents), as it is done in the United States, reflects the acknowledgment that the family as a social reality cannot be reduced to a stereotype of the appropriate order of default decision makers. This description of the family as being in authority to make surrogate decisions for an incompetent family member is enriched by an elaboration of the differences among the concepts of patient autonomy, family autonomy, and moral autonomy. The Chinese model, as well as the Confucian communitarian life of families, engages a family autonomy that is supported by a Confucian understanding of moral autonomy, rather than individual autonomy. Finally, the issue of possible conflicts between patient and family interests in relation to a patient's past wishes in the Chinese model is addressed in light of the role of the physician.

  18. Evaluation of bone surrogates for indirect and direct ballistic fractures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bir, Cynthia; Andrecovich, Chris; DeMaio, Marlene; Dougherty, Paul J

    2016-04-01

    The mechanism of injury for fractures to long bones has been studied for both direct ballistic loading as well as indirect. However, the majority of these studies have been conducted on both post-mortem human subjects (PMHS) and animal surrogates which have constraints in terms of storage, preparation and testing. The identification of a validated bone surrogate for use in forensic, medical and engineering testing would provide the ability to investigate ballistic loading without these constraints. Two specific bone surrogates, Sawbones and Synbone, were evaluated in comparison to PMHS for both direct and indirect ballistic loading. For the direct loading, the mean velocity to produce fracture was 121 ± 19 m/s for the PMHS, which was statistically different from the Sawbones (140 ± 7 m/s) and Synbone (146 ± 3 m/s). The average distance to fracture in the indirect loading was .70 cm for the PMHS. The Synbone had a statistically similar average distance to fracture (.61 cm, p=0.54) however the Sawbones average distance to fracture was statistically different (.41 cm, pballistic testing was not identified and future work is warranted.

  19. Surrogate Assisted Design Optimization of an Air Turbine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rameez Badhurshah

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Surrogates are cheaper to evaluate and assist in designing systems with lesser time. On the other hand, the surrogates are problem dependent and they need evaluation for each problem to find a suitable surrogate. The Kriging variants such as ordinary, universal, and blind along with commonly used response surface approximation (RSA model were used in the present problem, to optimize the performance of an air impulse turbine used for ocean wave energy harvesting by CFD analysis. A three-level full factorial design was employed to find sample points in the design space for two design variables. A Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes solver was used to evaluate the objective function responses, and these responses along with the design variables were used to construct the Kriging variants and RSA functions. A hybrid genetic algorithm was used to find the optimal point in the design space. It was found that the best optimal design was produced by the universal Kriging while the blind Kriging produced the worst. The present approach is suggested for renewable energy application.

  20. STEREO Space Weather and the Space Weather Beacon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biesecker, D. A.; Webb, D F.; SaintCyr, O. C.

    2007-01-01

    The Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) is first and foremost a solar and interplanetary research mission, with one of the natural applications being in the area of space weather. The obvious potential for space weather applications is so great that NOAA has worked to incorporate the real-time data into their forecast center as much as possible. A subset of the STEREO data will be continuously downlinked in a real-time broadcast mode, called the Space Weather Beacon. Within the research community there has been considerable interest in conducting space weather related research with STEREO. Some of this research is geared towards making an immediate impact while other work is still very much in the research domain. There are many areas where STEREO might contribute and we cannot predict where all the successes will come. Here we discuss how STEREO will contribute to space weather and many of the specific research projects proposed to address STEREO space weather issues. We also discuss some specific uses of the STEREO data in the NOAA Space Environment Center.

  1. Effectiveness of biological surrogates for predicting patterns of marine biodiversity: a global meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camille Mellin

    Full Text Available The use of biological surrogates as proxies for biodiversity patterns is gaining popularity, particularly in marine systems where field surveys can be expensive and species richness high. Yet, uncertainty regarding their applicability remains because of inconsistency of definitions, a lack of standard methods for estimating effectiveness, and variable spatial scales considered. We present a Bayesian meta-analysis of the effectiveness of biological surrogates in marine ecosystems. Surrogate effectiveness was defined both as the proportion of surrogacy tests where predictions based on surrogates were better than random (i.e., low probability of making a Type I error; P and as the predictability of targets using surrogates (R(2. A total of 264 published surrogacy tests combined with prior probabilities elicited from eight international experts demonstrated that the habitat, spatial scale, type of surrogate and statistical method used all influenced surrogate effectiveness, at least according to either P or R(2. The type of surrogate used (higher-taxa, cross-taxa or subset taxa was the best predictor of P, with the higher-taxa surrogates outperforming all others. The marine habitat was the best predictor of R(2, with particularly low predictability in tropical reefs. Surrogate effectiveness was greatest for higher-taxa surrogates at a <10-km spatial scale, in low-complexity marine habitats such as soft bottoms, and using multivariate-based methods. Comparisons with terrestrial studies in terms of the methods used to study surrogates revealed that marine applications still ignore some problems with several widely used statistical approaches to surrogacy. Our study provides a benchmark for the reliable use of biological surrogates in marine ecosystems, and highlights directions for future development of biological surrogates in predicting biodiversity.

  2. KZBW Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  3. Fish Springs weather CY 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Weather data for calendar year 2011 at Fish Springs National Wildlife Refuge. Data is provided for each month and includes maximum temperature, minimum temperature,...

  4. Fish Springs weather CY 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Weather data for calendar year 2010 at Fish Springs National Wildlife Refuge. Data is provided for each month and includes maximum temperature, minimum temperature,...

  5. The science of space weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastwood, Jonathan P

    2008-12-13

    The basic physics underpinning space weather is reviewed, beginning with a brief overview of the main causes of variability in the near-Earth space environment. Although many plasma phenomena contribute to space weather, one of the most important is magnetic reconnection, and recent cutting edge research in this field is reviewed. We then place this research in context by discussing a number of specific types of space weather in more detail. As society inexorably increases its dependence on space, the necessity of predicting and mitigating space weather will become ever more acute. This requires a deep understanding of the complexities inherent in the plasmas that fill space and has prompted the development of a new generation of scientific space missions at the international level.

  6. KZOA Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  7. KZSE Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  8. KZMA Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  9. US Weather Bureau Storm Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Bureau and US Army Corps and other reports of storms from 1886-1955. Hourly precipitation from recording rain gauges captured during heavy rain, snow,...

  10. Surface Weather Observations (Pre-1893)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly weather records from U.S. Army Forts stations (~1820-1871), U.S. Army Signal Service Stations (1871-1892), Smithsonian Institution voluntary observer network...

  11. KZLC Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  12. Weather data communication and utilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcfarland, R. H.; Nickum, J. D.; Mccall, D. L.

    1983-01-01

    The communication of weather data to aircraft is discussed. Problems encountered because of the great quantities of data available and the limited capacity to transfer this via radio link to an aircraft are discussed. Display devices are discussed.

  13. Practical Weathering for Geology Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodder, A. Peter

    1990-01-01

    The design and data management of an activity to study weathering by increasing the rate of mineral dissolution in a microwave oven is described. Data analysis in terms of parabolic and first-order kinetics is discussed. (CW)

  14. WARP Weather Information Network Server

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — WINS is the dissemination module of the WARP system that provides an interface to various NAS Users/systems that require weather data/products/information from WARP...

  15. Northern Hemisphere Synoptic Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Daily Series of Synoptic Weather Maps. Part I consists of plotted and analyzed daily maps of sea-level and 500-mb maps for 0300, 0400, 1200, 1230, 1300, and 1500...

  16. Strontium and cesium release mechanisms during unsaturated flow through waste-weathered Hanford sediments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Hyun-Shik; Um, Wooyong; Rod, Kenton A.; Serne, R. Jeffrey; Thompson, Aaron; Perdrial, Nicolas; Steefel, Carl I.; Chorover, Jon

    2011-10-01

    Leaching behavior of Sr and Cs in the vadose zone of Hanford site (WA, USA) was studied with laboratory-weathered sediments mimicking realistic conditions beneath the leaking radioactive waste storage tanks. Unsaturated column leaching experiments were conducted using background Hanford pore water focused on first 200 pore volumes. The weathered sediments were prepared by 6 months reaction with a synthetic Hanford tank waste leachate containing Sr and Cs (10-5 and 10-3 molal representative of LO- and HI-sediment, respectively) as surrogates for 90Sr and 137Cs. The mineral composition of the weathered sediments showed that zeolite (chabazite-type) and feldspathoid (sodalite-type) were the major byproducts but different contents depending on the weathering conditions. Reactive transport modeling indicated that Cs leaching was controlled by ion-exchange, while Sr release was affected primarily by dissolution of the secondary minerals. The later release of K, Al, and Si from the HI-column indicated the additional dissolution of a more crystalline mineral (cancrinite-type). A two-site ion-exchange model successfully simulated the Cs release from the LO-column. However, a three-site ion-exchange model was needed for the HI-column. The study implied that the weathering conditions greatly impact the speciation of the secondary minerals and leaching behavior of sequestrated Sr and Cs.

  17. Titan: Callisto With Weather?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, J. M.; Pappalardo, R. T.

    2008-12-01

    , Titan might have accreted relatively cold. Without being in a forced resonance, Titan's interior may have never undergone significant tidal heating. Analogous to Callisto's tenuous CO2 atmosphere, believed to be generated by sublimation of interior ices, interior clathrated methane within Titan may slowly diffuse outward from the cold interior, rather than the atmosphere being replenished by cryovolcanism. The hypothesis that Titan is "Callisto with weather" -- with geological processes that are principally exogenic -- can be tested through geophysical and thermal modeling, and by modeling the evolution of landscapes that are shaped by exogenic processes alone.

  18. Surrogate model based iterative ensemble smoother for subsurface flow data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Haibin; Liao, Qinzhuo; Zhang, Dongxiao

    2017-02-01

    Subsurface geological formation properties often involve some degree of uncertainty. Thus, for most conditions, uncertainty quantification and data assimilation are necessary for predicting subsurface flow. The surrogate model based method is one common type of uncertainty quantification method, in which a surrogate model is constructed for approximating the relationship between model output and model input. Based on the prediction ability, the constructed surrogate model can be utilized for performing data assimilation. In this work, we develop an algorithm for implementing an iterative ensemble smoother (ES) using the surrogate model. We first derive an iterative ES scheme using a regular routine. In order to utilize surrogate models, we then borrow the idea of Chen and Oliver (2013) to modify the Hessian, and further develop an independent parameter based iterative ES formula. Finally, we establish the algorithm for the implementation of iterative ES using surrogate models. Two surrogate models, the PCE surrogate and the interpolation surrogate, are introduced for illustration. The performances of the proposed algorithm are tested by synthetic cases. The results show that satisfactory data assimilation results can be obtained by using surrogate models that have sufficient accuracy.

  19. Uncertainty quantification of squeal instability via surrogate modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobari, Amir; Ouyang, Huajiang; Bannister, Paul

    2015-08-01

    One of the major issues that car manufacturers are facing is the noise and vibration of brake systems. Of the different sorts of noise and vibration, which a brake system may generate, squeal as an irritating high-frequency noise costs the manufacturers significantly. Despite considerable research that has been conducted on brake squeal, the root cause of squeal is still not fully understood. The most common assumption, however, is mode-coupling. Complex eigenvalue analysis is the most widely used approach to the analysis of brake squeal problems. One of the major drawbacks of this technique, nevertheless, is that the effects of variability and uncertainty are not included in the results. Apparently, uncertainty and variability are two inseparable parts of any brake system. Uncertainty is mainly caused by friction, contact, wear and thermal effects while variability mostly stems from the manufacturing process, material properties and component geometries. Evaluating the effects of uncertainty and variability in the complex eigenvalue analysis improves the predictability of noise propensity and helps produce a more robust design. The biggest hurdle in the uncertainty analysis of brake systems is the computational cost and time. Most uncertainty analysis techniques rely on the results of many deterministic analyses. A full finite element model of a brake system typically consists of millions of degrees-of-freedom and many load cases. Running time of such models is so long that automotive industry is reluctant to do many deterministic analyses. This paper, instead, proposes an efficient method of uncertainty propagation via surrogate modelling. A surrogate model of a brake system is constructed in order to reproduce the outputs of the large-scale finite element model and overcome the issue of computational workloads. The probability distribution of the real part of an unstable mode can then be obtained by using the surrogate model with a massive saving of

  20. Compaction behavior of surrogate degraded emplaced WIPP waste.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Broome, Scott Thomas [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bronowski, David R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Kuthakun, Souvanny James [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Herrick, Courtney Grant [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Pfeifle, Thomas W. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    The present study results are focused on laboratory testing of surrogate waste materials. The surrogate wastes correspond to a conservative estimate of degraded Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) containers and TRU waste materials at the end of the 10,000 year regulatory period. Testing consists of hydrostatic, triaxial, and uniaxial strain tests performed on surrogate waste recipes that were previously developed by Hansen et al. (1997). These recipes can be divided into materials that simulate 50% and 100% degraded waste by weight. The percent degradation indicates the anticipated amount of iron corrosion, as well as the decomposition of cellulosics, plastics, and rubbers (CPR). Axial, lateral, and volumetric strain and axial, lateral, and pore stress measurements were made. Two unique testing techniques were developed during the course of the experimental program. The first involves the use of dilatometry to measure sample volumetric strain under a hydrostatic condition. Bulk moduli of the samples measured using this technique were consistent with those measured using more conventional methods. The second technique involved performing triaxial tests under lateral strain control. By limiting the lateral strain to zero by controlling the applied confining pressure while loading the specimen axially in compression, one can maintain a right-circular cylindrical geometry even under large deformations. This technique is preferred over standard triaxial testing methods which result in inhomogeneous deformation or (3z(Bbarreling(3y. (BManifestations of the inhomogeneous deformation included non-uniform stress states, as well as unrealistic Poissons ratios (> 0.5) or those that vary significantly along the length of the specimen. Zero lateral strain controlled tests yield a more uniform stress state, and admissible and uniform values of Poissons ratio.

  1. Biopolicies and biotechnologies: reflections on surrogate maternity in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mónica Amador

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This article explores the impact of biotechnology, particularly on assisted reproductive technologies such as surrogate motherhood. The study is based on interviews and field work conducted in the city of Hyderabad in India within the frame of the seminar on “Research Methodology” given by Dr. Rohan D´Souza at the Centre for Studies in Science Policy at the Jawaharlal Nehru University in India. The theoretical framework of this analysis focuses on exploring concepts such as cyborg (Haraway,1991 and subaltern subject (Spivak, 1998 in the context of biotechnological production in India

  2. Surrogate based approaches to parameter inference in ocean models

    KAUST Repository

    Knio, Omar

    2016-01-06

    This talk discusses the inference of physical parameters using model surrogates. Attention is focused on the use of sampling schemes to build suitable representations of the dependence of the model response on uncertain input data. Non-intrusive spectral projections and regularized regressions are used for this purpose. A Bayesian inference formalism is then applied to update the uncertain inputs based on available measurements or observations. To perform the update, we consider two alternative approaches, based on the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods or of adjoint-based optimization techniques. We outline the implementation of these techniques to infer dependence of wind drag, bottom drag, and internal mixing coefficients.

  3. Quantitative Chemical Indices of Weathered Igneous Rocks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    A study was conducted to compare the effectiveness of different weathering indices for characterising weathered igneous rocks of Hong Kong. Among eight chemical indices evaluated in this study, the Parker index has been found most suitable for a quantitative description of state of weathering. Based on geochemical results of 174 samples, the index decreases almost linearly with an increasing extent of weathering. The results enable a better understanding of the modification of geotechnical properties of igneous rocks associated with weathering processes.

  4. Space Weather - the Economic Case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisi, M. M.; Gibbs, M.

    2015-12-01

    Following on from the UK Government's placement of space weather on it's National Risk Register, in 2011, and the Royal Academy of Engineering's study into the impacts of a severe space weather event, the next piece of key evidence, to underpin future investment decisions, is understanding the socio-economic impact of space weather This poster outlines a study, funded by the UK Space Agency, which will assess the socio-economic cost of space weather, both severe events, such as 1989 & a modern day repeat of the Carrington storm and also the cost of day-to-day impacts. The study will go on to estimate the cost benefit of forecasting and also investigate options for an operational L5 spacecraft mission and knowledge exchange activities with the South African Space Agency. The findings from the initial space weather socio-economic literature review will be presented along with other findings to date and sets out the tasks for the remainder of this programme of work.

  5. Space Weather Research: Indian perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhardwaj, Anil; Pant, Tarun Kumar; Choudhary, R. K.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Manoharan, P. K.

    2016-12-01

    Space weather, just like its meteorological counterpart, is of extreme importance when it comes to its impact on terrestrial near- and far-space environments. In recent years, space weather research has acquired an important place as a thrust area of research having implications both in space science and technology. The presence of satellites and other technological systems from different nations in near-Earth space necessitates that one must have a comprehensive understanding not only of the origin and evolution of space weather processes but also of their impact on technology and terrestrial upper atmosphere. To address this aspect, nations across the globe including India have been investing in research concerning Sun, solar processes and their evolution from solar interior into the interplanetary space, and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. In India, over the years, a substantial amount of work has been done in each of these areas by various agencies/institutions. In fact, India has been, and continues to be, at the forefront of space research and has ambitious future programs concerning these areas encompassing space weather. This review aims at providing a glimpse of this Indian perspective on space weather research to the reader and presenting an up-to-date status of the same.

  6. Diesel Surrogate Fuels for Engine Testing and Chemical-Kinetic Modeling: Compositions and Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Charles J.; Cannella, William J.; Bays, J. Timothy; Bruno, Thomas J.; DeFabio, Kathy; Dettman, Heather D.; Gieleciak, Rafal M.; Huber, Marcia L.; Kweon, Chol-Bum; McConnell, Steven S.; Pitz, William J.; Ratcliff, Matthew A.

    2016-01-01

    The primary objectives of this work were to formulate, blend, and characterize a set of four ultralow-sulfur diesel surrogate fuels in quantities sufficient to enable their study in single-cylinder-engine and combustion-vessel experiments. The surrogate fuels feature increasing levels of compositional accuracy (i.e., increasing exactness in matching hydrocarbon structural characteristics) relative to the single target diesel fuel upon which the surrogate fuels are based. This approach was taken to assist in determining the minimum level of surrogate-fuel compositional accuracy that is required to adequately emulate the performance characteristics of the target fuel under different combustion modes. For each of the four surrogate fuels, an approximately 30 L batch was blended, and a number of the physical and chemical properties were measured. This work documents the surrogate-fuel creation process and the results of the property measurements. PMID:27330248

  7. Fast and accurate prediction of numerical relativity waveforms from binary black hole mergers using surrogate models

    CERN Document Server

    Blackman, Jonathan; Galley, Chad R; Szilagyi, Bela; Scheel, Mark A; Tiglio, Manuel; Hemberger, Daniel A

    2015-01-01

    Simulating a binary black hole coalescence by solving Einstein's equations is computationally expensive, requiring days to months of supercomputing time. In this paper, we construct an accurate and fast-to-evaluate surrogate model for numerical relativity (NR) waveforms from non-spinning binary black hole coalescences with mass ratios from $1$ to $10$ and durations corresponding to about $15$ orbits before merger. Our surrogate, which is built using reduced order modeling techniques, is distinct from traditional modeling efforts. We find that the full multi-mode surrogate model agrees with waveforms generated by NR to within the numerical error of the NR code. In particular, we show that our modeling strategy produces surrogates which can correctly predict NR waveforms that were {\\em not} used for the surrogate's training. For all practical purposes, then, the surrogate waveform model is equivalent to the high-accuracy, large-scale simulation waveform but can be evaluated in a millisecond to a second dependin...

  8. Combining endangered plants and animals as surrogates to identify priority conservation areas in Yunnan, China

    OpenAIRE

    Feiling Yang; Jinming Hu; Ruidong Wu

    2016-01-01

    Suitable surrogates are critical for identifying optimal priority conservation areas (PCAs) to protect regional biodiversity. This study explored the efficiency of using endangered plants and animals as surrogates for identifying PCAs at the county level in Yunnan, southwest China. We ran the Dobson algorithm under three surrogate scenarios at 75% and 100% conservation levels and identified four types of PCAs. Assessment of the protection efficiencies of the four types of PCAs showed that end...

  9. Surrogate Mobility and Orientation Affect the Early Neurobehavioral Development of Infant Rhesus Macaques (Macaca mulatta)

    OpenAIRE

    Amanda M Dettmer; Ruggerio, Angela M.; Novak, Melinda A.; Meyer, Jerrold S.; Suomi, Stephen J.

    2008-01-01

    A biological mother’s movement appears necessary for optimal development in infant monkeys. However, nursery-reared monkeys are typically provided with inanimate surrogate mothers that move very little. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of a novel, highly mobile surrogate mother on motor development, exploration, and reactions to novelty. Six infant rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) were reared on mobile hanging surrogates (MS) and compared to six infants reared on standard...

  10. Space Weather, Environment and Societies

    CERN Document Server

    Lilensten, Jean

    2006-01-01

    Our planet exists within a space environment affected by constantly changing solar atmosphere producing cosmic particles and electromagnetic waves. This "space weather" profoundly influences the performance of our technology because we primarily use two means for transmitting information and energy; namely, electromagnetic waves and electricity. On an everyday basis, we have developed methods to cope with the normal conditions. However, the sun remains a fiery star whose 'angry' outbursts can potentially destroy spacecrafts, kill astronauts, melt electricity transformers, stop trains, and generally wreak havoc with human activities. Space Weather is the developing field within astronomy that aims at predicting the sun’s violent activity and minimizing the impacts on our daily lives. Space Weather, Environment, and Societies explains why our technological societies are so dependent on solar activity and how the Sun disturbs the transmission of information and energy. Footnotes expand specific points and the ...

  11. Evaluation of the use of surrogate Laminaria digitata in eco-hydraulic laboratory experiments

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    PAUL Maike; HENRY Pierre-Yves T

    2014-01-01

    Inert surrogates can avoid husbandry and adaptation problems of live vegetation in laboratories. Surrogates are generally used for experiments on vegetation-hydrodynamics interactions, but it is unclear how well they replicate field conditions. Here, surrogates for the brown macroalgae Laminaria digitata were developed to reproduce its hydraulic roughness. Plant shape, stiffness and buoyancy of L. digitata were evaluated and compared to the properties of inert materials. Different surrogate materials and shapes were exposed to unidirectional flow. It is concluded that buoyancy is an important factor in low flow conditions and a basic shape might be sufficient to model complex shaped plants resulting in the same streamlined shape.

  12. The use of surrogate endpoints in regulating medicines for cardio-renal disease: opinions of stakeholders.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bauke Schievink

    Full Text Available AIM: There is discussion whether medicines can be authorized on the market based on evidence from surrogate endpoints. We assessed opinions of different stakeholders on this topic. METHODS: We conducted an online questionnaire that targeted various stakeholder groups (regulatory agencies, pharmaceutical industry, academia, relevant public sector organisations and medical specialties (cardiology or nephrology vs. other. Participants were enrolled through purposeful sampling. We inquired for conditions under which surrogate endpoints can be used, the validity of various cardio-renal biomarkers and new approaches for biomarker use. RESULTS: Participants agreed that surrogate endpoints can be used when the surrogate is scientifically valid (5-point Likert response format, mean score: 4.3, SD: 0.9 or when there is an unmet clinical need (mean score: 3.8, SD: 1.2. Industry participants agreed to a greater extent than regulators and academics. However, out of four proposed surrogates (blood pressure (BP, HbA1c, albuminuria, CRP for cardiovascular outcomes or end-stage renal disease, only use of BP for cardiovascular outcomes was deemed moderately accurate (mean: 3.6, SD: 1.1. Specialists in cardiology or nephrology tended to be more positive about the use of surrogate endpoints. CONCLUSION: Stakeholders in drug development do not oppose to the use of surrogate endpoints in drug marketing authorization, but most surrogates are not considered valid. To solve this impasse, increased efforts are required to validate surrogate endpoints and to explore alternative ways to use them.

  13. Detailed chemical kinetic oxidation mechanism for a biodiesel surrogate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herbinet, O; Pitz, W J; Westbrook, C K

    2007-09-20

    A detailed chemical kinetic mechanism has been developed and used to study the oxidation of methyl decanoate, a surrogate for biodiesel fuels. This model has been built by following the rules established by Curran et al. for the oxidation of n-heptane and it includes all the reactions known to be pertinent to both low and high temperatures. Computed results have been compared with methyl decanoate experiments in an engine and oxidation of rapeseed oil methyl esters in a jet stirred reactor. An important feature of this mechanism is its ability to reproduce the early formation of carbon dioxide that is unique to biofuels and due to the presence of the ester group in the reactant. The model also predicts ignition delay times and OH profiles very close to observed values in shock tube experiments fueled by n-decane. These model capabilities indicate that large n-alkanes can be good surrogates for large methyl esters and biodiesel fuels to predict overall reactivity, but some kinetic details, including early CO{sub 2} production from biodiesel fuels, can be predicted only by a detailed kinetic mechanism for a true methyl ester fuel. The present methyl decanoate mechanism provides a realistic kinetic tool for simulation of biodiesel fuels.

  14. Detailed chemical kinetic oxidation mechanism for a biodiesel surrogate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herbinet, O; Pitz, W J; Westbrook, C K

    2007-09-17

    A detailed chemical kinetic mechanism has been developed and used to study the oxidation of methyl decanoate, a surrogate for biodiesel fuels. This model has been built by following the rules established by Curran et al. for the oxidation of n-heptane and it includes all the reactions known to be pertinent to both low and high temperatures. Computed results have been compared with methyl decanoate experiments in an engine and oxidation of rapeseed oil methyl esters in a jet stirred reactor. An important feature of this mechanism is its ability to reproduce the early formation of carbon dioxide that is unique to biofuels and due to the presence of the ester group in the reactant. The model also predicts ignition delay times and OH profiles very close to observed values in shock tube experiments fueled by n-decane. These model capabilities indicate that large n-alkanes can be good surrogates for large methyl esters and biodiesel fuels to predict overall reactivity, but some kinetic details, including early CO2 production from biodiesel fuels, can be predicted only by a detailed kinetic mechanism for a true methyl ester fuel. The present methyl decanoate mechanism provides a realistic kinetic tool for simulation of biodiesel fuels.

  15. Simultaneous Thermal Analysis of Remediated Nitrate Salt Surrogates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wayne, David Matthew [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-13

    The actinide engineering and science group (MET-1) have completed simultaneous thermal analysis and offgas analysis by mass spectrometry (STA-MS) of remediated nitrate salt (RNS) surrogates formulated by the high explosives science and technology group (M-7). The 1.0 to 1.5g surrogate samples were first analyzed as received, then a new set was analyzed with 100-200mL 10M HNO3 +0.3 MHF added, and a third set was analyzed after 200 mL of a concentrated Pu-AM spike (in 10M HNO3 +0.3 MHF) was added. The acid and spike solutions were formulated by the actinide analytical chemistry group (C-AAC) using reagent-grade HNO3 and HF, which was also used to dissolve a small quantity of mixed, high-fired PuO2/ AmO2 oxide.

  16. Detailed chemical kinetic oxidation mechanism for a biodiesel surrogate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herbinet, O; Pitz, W J; Westbrook, C K

    2007-09-20

    A detailed chemical kinetic mechanism has been developed and used to study the oxidation of methyl decanoate, a surrogate for biodiesel fuels. This model has been built by following the rules established by Curran et al. for the oxidation of n-heptane and it includes all the reactions known to be pertinent to both low and high temperatures. Computed results have been compared with methyl decanoate experiments in an engine and oxidation of rapeseed oil methyl esters in a jet stirred reactor. An important feature of this mechanism is its ability to reproduce the early formation of carbon dioxide that is unique to biofuels and due to the presence of the ester group in the reactant. The model also predicts ignition delay times and OH profiles very close to observed values in shock tube experiments fueled by n-decane. These model capabilities indicate that large n-alkanes can be good surrogates for large methyl esters and biodiesel fuels to predict overall reactivity, but some kinetic details, including early CO{sub 2} production from biodiesel fuels, can be predicted only by a detailed kinetic mechanism for a true methyl ester fuel. The present methyl decanoate mechanism provides a realistic kinetic tool for simulation of biodiesel fuels.

  17. Detailed chemical kinetic oxidation mechanism for a biodiesel surrogate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herbinet, O; Pitz, W J; Westbrook, C K

    2007-09-17

    A detailed chemical kinetic mechanism has been developed and used to study the oxidation of methyl decanoate, a surrogate for biodiesel fuels. This model has been built by following the rules established by Curran et al. for the oxidation of n-heptane and it includes all the reactions known to be pertinent to both low and high temperatures. Computed results have been compared with methyl decanoate experiments in an engine and oxidation of rapeseed oil methyl esters in a jet stirred reactor. An important feature of this mechanism is its ability to reproduce the early formation of carbon dioxide that is unique to biofuels and due to the presence of the ester group in the reactant. The model also predicts ignition delay times and OH profiles very close to observed values in shock tube experiments fueled by n-decane. These model capabilities indicate that large n-alkanes can be good surrogates for large methyl esters and biodiesel fuels to predict overall reactivity, but some kinetic details, including early CO2 production from biodiesel fuels, can be predicted only by a detailed kinetic mechanism for a true methyl ester fuel. The present methyl decanoate mechanism provides a realistic kinetic tool for simulation of biodiesel fuels.

  18. Premixed flame chemistry of a gasoline primary reference fuel surrogate

    KAUST Repository

    Selim, Hatem

    2017-03-10

    Investigating the combustion chemistry of gasoline surrogate fuels promises to improve detailed reaction mechanisms used for simulating their combustion. In this work, the combustion chemistry of one of the simplest, but most frequently used gasoline surrogates – primary reference fuel 84 (PRF 84, 84 vol% iso-octane and 16 vol% n-heptane), has been examined in a stoichiometric premixed laminar flame. Time-of-flight mass spectrometry coupled with a vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) synchrotron light source for species photoionization was used. Reactants, major end-products, stable intermediates, free radicals, and isomeric species were detected and quantified. Numerical simulations were conducted using a detailed chemical kinetic model with the most recently available high temperature sub-mechanisms for iso-octane and heptane, built on the top of an updated pentane isomers model and AramcoMech 2.0 (C0C4) base chemistry. A detailed interpretation of the major differences between the mechanistic pathways of both fuel components is given. A comparison between the experimental and numerical results is depicted and rate of production and sensitivity analyses are shown for the species with considerable disagreement between the experimental and numerical findings.

  19. Bayesian Calibration of the Community Land Model using Surrogates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; Sargsyan, K.; Swiler, Laura P.

    2015-01-01

    We present results from the Bayesian calibration of hydrological parameters of the Community Land Model (CLM), which is often used in climate simulations and Earth system models. A statistical inverse problem is formulated for three hydrological parameters, conditioned on observations of latent heat surface fluxes over 48 months. Our calibration method uses polynomial and Gaussian process surrogates of the CLM, and solves the parameter estimation problem using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. Posterior probability densities for the parameters are developed for two sites with different soil and vegetation covers. Our method also allows us to examine the structural error in CLM under two error models. We find that accurate surrogate models can be created for CLM in most cases. The posterior distributions lead to better prediction than the default parameter values in CLM. Climatologically averaging the observations does not modify the parameters’ distributions significantly. The structural error model reveals a correlation time-scale which can potentially be used to identify physical processes that could be contributing to it. While the calibrated CLM has a higher predictive skill, the calibration is under-dispersive.

  20. Fractional flow reserve as a surrogate for inducible myocardial ischaemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Hoef, Tim P; Meuwissen, Martijn; Escaned, Javier; Davies, Justin E; Siebes, Maria; Spaan, Jos A E; Piek, Jan J

    2013-08-01

    Documentation of inducible myocardial ischaemia, related to the coronary stenosis of interest, is of increasing importance in lesion selection for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Fractional flow reserve (FFR) is an easily understood, routine diagnostic modality that has become part of daily clinical practice, and is used as a surrogate technique for noninvasive assessment of myocardial ischaemia. However, the application of a single, discrete, cut-off value for FFR-guided lesion selection for PCI, and its adoption in contemporary revascularization guidelines, has limited the requirement for a thorough understanding of the physiological basis of FFR. This limitation constitutes an obstacle for the adequate use and interpretation of this technique, and also for the understanding of new and future modalities of physiological functional intracoronary testing. In this Review, we revisit the fundamental elements of coronary physiology in the absence or presence of coronary artery disease. We provide insight into three essential characteristics of FFR as a diagnostic tool in contemporary clinical practice--the theoretical framework of FFR and its associated limitations; the characteristics and role of FFR as a surrogate for noninvasively assessed myocardial ischaemia; and the requirement and associated caveats of potent vasodilatory drugs to induce maximal vasodilatation of the coronary vascular bed.

  1. The development of radioactive sample surrogates for training and exercises

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martha Finck; Bevin Brush; Dick Jansen; David Chamberlain; Don Dry; George Brooks; Margaret Goldberg

    2012-03-01

    The development of radioactive sample surrogates for training and exercises Source term information is required for to reconstruct a device used in a dispersed radiological dispersal device. Simulating a radioactive environment to train and exercise sampling and sample characterization methods with suitable sample materials is a continued challenge. The Idaho National Laboratory has developed and permitted a Radioactive Response Training Range (RRTR), an 800 acre test range that is approved for open air dispersal of activated KBr, for training first responders in the entry and exit from radioactively contaminated areas, and testing protocols for environmental sampling and field characterization. Members from the Department of Defense, Law Enforcement, and the Department of Energy participated in the first contamination exercise that was conducted at the RRTR in the July 2011. The range was contaminated using a short lived radioactive Br-82 isotope (activated KBr). Soil samples contaminated with KBr (dispersed as a solution) and glass particles containing activated potassium bromide that emulated dispersed radioactive materials (such as ceramic-based sealed source materials) were collected to assess environmental sampling and characterization techniques. This presentation summarizes the performance of a radioactive materials surrogate for use as a training aide for nuclear forensics.

  2. Pan masala advertisements are surrogate for tobacco products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sushma, C; Sharang, C

    2005-01-01

    Pan masala is a comparatively recent habit in India and is marketed with and without tobacco. Advertisements of tobacco products have been banned in India since 1st May 2004. The advertisements of plain pan masala, which continue in Indian media, have been suspected to be surrogate for tobacco products bearing the same name. The study was carried out to assess whether these advertisements were for the intended product, or for tobacco products with same brand name. The programme of a popular television Hindi news channel was watched for a 24-h period. Programmes on the same channel and its English counterpart were watched on different days to assess whether the advertisements were repeated. The total duration of telecast of a popular brand of plain pan masala (Pan Parag) was multiplied by the rate charged by the channel to provide the cost of advertisement of this product. The total sale value of the company was multiplied by the proportion of usage of plain pan masala out of gutka plus pan masala habit as observed from a different study, to provide the annual sale value of plain pan masala product under reference. The annual sale value of plain Pan Parag was estimated to be Rs. 67.1 million. The annual cost of the advertisement of the same product on two television channels was estimated at Rs. 244.6 million. The advertisements of plain pan masala seen on Indian television are a surrogate for the tobacco products bearing the same name.

  3. Defining useful surrogates for user participation in online medical learning.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Beddy, Peter

    2012-02-01

    "School for Surgeons" is a web-based distance learning program which provides online clinical-based tutorials to surgical trainees. Our aim was to determine surrogates of active participation and to assess the efficacy of methods to improve usage. Server logs of the 82 participants in the "School for Surgeons" were assessed for the two terms of the first year of the program. Data collected included total time online, mean session time, page requests, numbers of sessions online and the total number of assignments. An intervention regarding comparative peer usage patterns was delivered to the cohort between terms one and two. Of the 82 trainees enrolled, 83% (85% second term) logged into the program. Of all participants 88% (97% second term) submitted at least one assignment. Median submissions were four (eight second term) per trainee. Assignment submission closely correlated with number of sessions, total time online, downloads and page requests. Peer-based comparative feedback resulted in a significant increase in the number of assignments submitted (p < 0.01). Despite its recent introduction, "School for Surgeons" has a good participation rate. Assignment submission is a valid surrogate for usage. Students can be encouraged to move from passive observation to active participation in a virtual learning environment by providing structured comparative feedback ranking their performance.

  4. Proper Orthogonal Decomposition as Surrogate Model for Aerodynamic Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina Dolci

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A surrogate model based on the proper orthogonal decomposition is developed in order to enable fast and reliable evaluations of aerodynamic fields. The proposed method is applied to subsonic turbulent flows and the proper orthogonal decomposition is based on an ensemble of high-fidelity computations. For the construction of the ensemble, fractional and full factorial planes together with central composite design-of-experiment strategies are applied. For the continuous representation of the projection coefficients in the parameter space, response surface methods are employed. Three case studies are presented. In the first case, the boundary shape of the problem is deformed and the flow past a backward facing step with variable step slope is studied. In the second case, a two-dimensional flow past a NACA 0012 airfoil is considered and the surrogate model is constructed in the (Mach, angle of attack parameter space. In the last case, the aerodynamic optimization of an automotive shape is considered. The results demonstrate how a reduced-order model based on the proper orthogonal decomposition applied to a small number of high-fidelity solutions can be used to generate aerodynamic data with good accuracy at a low cost.

  5. Bayesian calibration of the Community Land Model using surrogates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; Swiler, Laura Painton

    2014-02-01

    We present results from the Bayesian calibration of hydrological parameters of the Community Land Model (CLM), which is often used in climate simulations and Earth system models. A statistical inverse problem is formulated for three hydrological parameters, conditional on observations of latent heat surface fluxes over 48 months. Our calibration method uses polynomial and Gaussian process surrogates of the CLM, and solves the parameter estimation problem using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. Posterior probability densities for the parameters are developed for two sites with different soil and vegetation covers. Our method also allows us to examine the structural error in CLM under two error models. We find that surrogate models can be created for CLM in most cases. The posterior distributions are more predictive than the default parameter values in CLM. Climatologically averaging the observations does not modify the parameters' distributions significantly. The structural error model reveals a correlation time-scale which can be used to identify the physical process that could be contributing to it. While the calibrated CLM has a higher predictive skill, the calibration is under-dispersive.

  6. Vertical Flume Testing of WIPP Surrogate Waste Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrick, C. G.; Schuhen, M.; Kicker, D.

    2013-12-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is a U.S. Department of Energy geological repository for the permanent disposal of defense-related transuranic (TRU) waste. The waste is emplaced in rooms excavated in the bedded Salado salt formation at a depth of 655 m below ground surface. After emplacement of the waste, the repository will be sealed and decommissioned. The DOE demonstrates compliance with 40 CFR 194 by means of performance assessment (PA) calculations conducted by Sandia National Laboratories. WIPP PA calculations estimate the probability and consequences of radionuclide releases for a 10,000 year regulatory period. Human intrusion scenarios include cases in which a future borehole is drilled through the repository. Drilling mud flowing up the borehole will apply a hydrodynamic shear stress to the borehole wall which could result in erosion of the waste and radionuclides being carried up the borehole. WIPP PA uses the parameter TAUFAIL to represent the shear strength of the degraded waste. The hydrodynamic shear strength can only be measured experimentally by flume testing. Flume testing is typically performed horizontally, mimicking stream or ocean currents. However, in a WIPP intrusion event, the drill bit would penetrate the degraded waste and drilling mud would flow up the borehole in a predominantly vertical direction. In order to simulate this, a flume was designed and built so that the eroding fluid enters an enclosed vertical channel from the bottom and flows up past a specimen of surrogate waste material. The sample is pushed into the current by a piston attached to a step motor. A qualified data acquisition system controls and monitors the fluid's flow rate, temperature, pressure, and conductivity and the step motor's operation. The surrogate materials used correspond to a conservative estimate of degraded TRU waste at the end of the regulatory period. The recipes were previously developed by SNL based on anticipated future states of the waste

  7. Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

    2015-12-01

    The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help

  8. Tomorrow's Forecast: Oceans and Weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smigielski, Alan

    1995-01-01

    This issue of "Art to Zoo" focuses on weather and climate and is tied to the traveling exhibition Ocean Planet from the Smithsonian's National Museum of Natural History. The lessons encourage students to think about the profound influence the oceans have on planetary climate and life on earth. Sections of the lesson plan include: (1) "Ocean…

  9. Winter Weather Frequently Asked Questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Part 3 of 3) Hot Weather Tips Heat Stress in Older Adults FAQs Extreme Heat PSAs Related Links MMWR Bibliography CDC's Program Floods Flood Readiness Personal Hygiene After a Disaster Cleanup of Flood Water After a Flood Worker Safety Educational Materials Floods ...

  10. Dynamic Weather Routes Architecture Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eslami, Hassan; Eshow, Michelle

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic Weather Routes Architecture Overview, presents the high level software architecture of DWR, based on the CTAS software framework and the Direct-To automation tool. The document also covers external and internal data flows, required dataset, changes to the Direct-To software for DWR, collection of software statistics, and the code structure.

  11. Mexican Space Weather Service (SCIESMEX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Esparza, A.; De la Luz, V.; Mejia-Ambriz, J. C.; Aguilar-Rodriguez, E.; Corona-Romero, P.; Gonzalez, L. X.

    2015-12-01

    Recent modifications of the Civil Protection Law in Mexico include now specific mentions to space hazards and space weather phenomena. During the last few years, the UN has promoted international cooperation on Space Weather awareness, studies and monitoring. Internal and external conditions motivated the creation of a Space Weather Service in Mexico (SCIESMEX). The SCIESMEX (www.sciesmex.unam.mx) is operated by the Geophysics Institute at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). The UNAM has the experience of operating several critical national services, including the National Seismological Service (SSN); besides that has a well established scientific group with expertise in space physics and solar- terrestrial phenomena. The SCIESMEX is also related with the recent creation of the Mexican Space Agency (AEM). The project combines a network of different ground instruments covering solar, interplanetary, geomagnetic, and ionospheric observations. The SCIESMEX has already in operation computing infrastructure running the web application, a virtual observatory and a high performance computing server to run numerical models. SCIESMEX participates in the International Space Environment Services (ISES) and in the Inter-progamme Coordination Team on Space Weather (ICTSW) of the Word Meteorological Organization (WMO).

  12. A review of selection-based tests of abiotic surrogates for species representation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beier, Paul; Sutcliffe, Patricia; Hjort, Jan; Faith, Daniel P; Pressey, Robert L; Albuquerque, Fabio

    2015-06-01

    Because conservation planners typically lack data on where species occur, environmental surrogates--including geophysical settings and climate types--have been used to prioritize sites within a planning area. We reviewed 622 evaluations of the effectiveness of abiotic surrogates in representing species in 19 study areas. Sites selected using abiotic surrogates represented more species than an equal number of randomly selected sites in 43% of tests (55% for plants) and on average improved on random selection of sites by about 8% (21% for plants). Environmental diversity (ED) (42% median improvement on random selection) and biotically informed clusters showed promising results and merit additional testing. We suggest 4 ways to improve performance of abiotic surrogates. First, analysts should consider a broad spectrum of candidate variables to define surrogates, including rarely used variables related to geographic separation, distance from coast, hydrology, and within-site abiotic diversity. Second, abiotic surrogates should be defined at fine thematic resolution. Third, sites (the landscape units prioritized within a planning area) should be small enough to ensure that surrogates reflect species' environments and to produce prioritizations that match the spatial resolution of conservation decisions. Fourth, if species inventories are available for some planning units, planners should define surrogates based on the abiotic variables that most influence species turnover in the planning area. Although species inventories increase the cost of using abiotic surrogates, a modest number of inventories could provide the data needed to select variables and evaluate surrogates. Additional tests of nonclimate abiotic surrogates are needed to evaluate the utility of conserving nature's stage as a strategy for conservation planning in the face of climate change. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  13. Weather-Corrected Performance Ratio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dierauf, T.; Growitz, A.; Kurtz, S.; Cruz, J. L. B.; Riley, E.; Hansen, C.

    2013-04-01

    Photovoltaic (PV) system performance depends on both the quality of the system and the weather. One simple way to communicate the system performance is to use the performance ratio (PR): the ratio of the electricity generated to the electricity that would have been generated if the plant consistently converted sunlight to electricity at the level expected from the DC nameplate rating. The annual system yield for flat-plate PV systems is estimated by the product of the annual insolation in the plane of the array, the nameplate rating of the system, and the PR, which provides an attractive way to estimate expected annual system yield. Unfortunately, the PR is, again, a function of both the PV system efficiency and the weather. If the PR is measured during the winter or during the summer, substantially different values may be obtained, making this metric insufficient to use as the basis for a performance guarantee when precise confidence intervals are required. This technical report defines a way to modify the PR calculation to neutralize biases that may be introduced by variations in the weather, while still reporting a PR that reflects the annual PR at that site given the project design and the project weather file. This resulting weather-corrected PR gives more consistent results throughout the year, enabling its use as a metric for performance guarantees while still retaining the familiarity this metric brings to the industry and the value of its use in predicting actual annual system yield. A testing protocol is also presented to illustrate the use of this new metric with the intent of providing a reference starting point for contractual content.

  14. Effects of Abiotic and Biotic Stresses on the Internalization and Dissemination of Human Norovirus Surrogates in Growing Romaine Lettuce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiCaprio, Erin; Purgianto, Anastasia; Li, Jianrong

    2015-07-01

    Human norovirus (NoV) is the major causative agent of fresh-produce-related outbreaks of gastroenteritis; however, the ecology and persistence of human NoV in produce systems are poorly understood. In this study, the effects of abiotic and biotic stresses on the internalization and dissemination of two human NoV surrogates (murine norovirus 1 [MNV-1] and Tulane virus [TV]) in romaine lettuce were determined. To induce abiotic stress, romaine lettuce was grown under drought and flood conditions that mimic extreme weather events, followed by inoculation of soil with MNV-1 or TV. Independently, lettuce plants were infected with lettuce mosaic virus (LMV) to induce biotic stress, followed by inoculation with TV. Plants were grown for 14 days, and viral titers in harvested tissues were determined by plaque assays. It was found that drought stress significantly decreased the rates of both MNV-1 and TV internalization and dissemination. In contrast, neither flood stress nor biotic stress significantly impacted viral internalization or dissemination. Additionally, the rates of TV internalization and dissemination in soil-grown lettuce were significantly higher than those for MNV-1. Collectively, these results demonstrated that (i) human NoV surrogates can be internalized via roots and disseminated to shoots and leaves of romaine lettuce grown in soil, (ii) abiotic stress (drought) but not biotic stress (LMV infection) affects the rates of viral internalization and dissemination, and (iii) the type of virus affects the efficiency of internalization and dissemination. This study also highlights the need to develop effective measures to eliminate internalized viruses in fresh produce.

  15. OpenWeather: a peer-to-peer weather data transmission protocol

    CERN Document Server

    Yanes, Adrian

    2011-01-01

    The study of the weather is performed using instruments termed weather stations. These weather stations are distributed around the world, collecting the data from the different phenomena. Several weather organizations have been deploying thousands of these instruments, creating big networks to collect weather data. These instruments are collecting the weather data and delivering it for later processing in the collections points. Nevertheless, all the methodologies used to transmit the weather data are based in protocols non adapted for this purpose. Thus, the weather stations are limited by the data formats and protocols used in them, not taking advantage of the real-time data available on them. We research the weather instruments, their technology and their network capabilities, in order to provide a solution for the mentioned problem. OpenWeather is the protocol proposed to provide a more optimum and reliable way to transmit the weather data. We evaluate the environmental factors, such as location or bandwi...

  16. Top predators: hot or not? A call for systematic assessment of biodiversity surrogates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cabeza, M.; Arponen, A.; Teeffelen, van A.J.A.

    2008-01-01

    argue that top predators are justified conservation surrogates based on a case study where raptor presence is associated with high species richness of birds, butterflies and trees. 2. We question the methodology as well as the applicability of their results, and clarify differences between surrogate

  17. Comparison of surrogate models with different methods in groundwater remediation process

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Jiannan Luo; Wenxi Lu

    2014-10-01

    Surrogate modelling is an effective tool for reducing computational burden of simulation optimization. In this article, polynomial regression (PR), radial basis function artificial neural network (RBFANN), and kriging methods were compared for building surrogate models of a multiphase flow simulation model in a simplified nitrobenzene contaminated aquifer remediation problem. In the model accuracy analysis process, a 10-fold cross validation method was adopted to evaluate the approximation accuracy of the three surrogate models. The results demonstrated that: RBFANN surrogate model and kriging surrogate model had acceptable approximation accuracy, and further that kriging model’s approximation accuracy was slightly higher than RBFANN model. However, the PR model demonstrated unacceptably poor approximation accuracy. Therefore, the RBFANN and kriging surrogates were selected and used in the optimization process to identify the most cost-effective remediation strategy at a nitrobenzene-contaminated site. The optimal remediation costs obtained with the two surrogate-based optimization models were similar, and had similar computational burden. These two surrogate-based optimization models are efficient tools for optimal groundwater remediation strategy identification.

  18. Someone to Lean on: Assessment and Implications of Social Surrogate Use in Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbeau, Kimberley A.; Coplan, Robert J.; Matheson, Adrienne

    2012-01-01

    A social surrogate is a person who helps a shy individual deal with the stresses of a social situation. Previous research has only investigated social surrogate use in adults. The purpose of the current study was to develop and evaluate a new self-report measure of social surrogacy in middle childhood and to explore the implications of this…

  19. Critical review of norovirus surrogates in food safety research: rationale for considering volunteer studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    The inability to propagate human norovirus (NoV) or to clearly differentiate infectious from noninfectious virus particles have led to the use of surrogate viruses, like feline calicivirus (FCV) and murine norovirus-1 (MNV), which are propagatable in cell culture. The use of surrogates is predicate...

  20. Somatic coliphages as surrogates for enteroviruses in sludge hygienization treatments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín-Díaz, Julia; Casas-Mangas, Raquel; García-Aljaro, Cristina; Blanch, Anicet R; Lucena, Francisco

    2016-01-01

    Conventional bacterial indicators present serious drawbacks giving information about viral pathogens persistence during sludge hygienization treatments. This calls for the search of alternative viral indicators. Somatic coliphages' (SOMCPH) ability for acting as surrogates for enteroviruses was assessed in 47 sludge samples subjected to novel treatment processes. SOMCPH, infectious enteroviruses and genome copies of enteroviruses were monitored. Only one of these groups, the bacteriophages, was present in the sludge at concentrations that allowed the evaluation of treatment's performance. An indicator/pathogen relationship of 4 log10 (PFU/g dw) was found between SOMCPH and infective enteroviruses and their detection accuracy was assessed. The obtained results and the existence of rapid and standardized methods encourage the inclusion of SOMCPH quantification in future sludge directives. In addition, an existing real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) for enteroviruses was adapted and applied.

  1. A Rigorous Framework for Optimization of Expensive Functions by Surrogates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booker, Andrew J.; Dennis, J. E., Jr.; Frank, Paul D.; Serafini, David B.; Torczon, Virginia; Trosset, Michael W.

    1998-01-01

    The goal of the research reported here is to develop rigorous optimization algorithms to apply to some engineering design problems for which design application of traditional optimization approaches is not practical. This paper presents and analyzes a framework for generating a sequence of approximations to the objective function and managing the use of these approximations as surrogates for optimization. The result is to obtain convergence to a minimizer of an expensive objective function subject to simple constraints. The approach is widely applicable because it does not require, or even explicitly approximate, derivatives of the objective. Numerical results are presented for a 31-variable helicopter rotor blade design example and for a standard optimization test example.

  2. Sparse polynomial surrogates for aerodynamic computations with random inputs

    CERN Document Server

    Savin, Eric; Peter, Jacques

    2015-01-01

    This paper deals with some of the methodologies used to construct polynomial surrogate models based on generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansions for applications to uncertainty quantification (UQ) in aerodynamic computations. A core ingredient in gPC expansions is the choice of a dedicated sampling strategy, so as to define the most significant scenarios to be considered for the construction of such metamodels. A desirable feature of the proposed rules shall be their ability to handle several random inputs simultaneously. Methods to identify the relative "importance" of those variables or uncertain data shall be ideally considered as well. The present work is more particularly dedicated to the development of sampling strategies based on sparsity principles. Sparse multi-dimensional cubature rules based on general one-dimensional Gauss-Jacobi-type quadratures are first addressed. These sets are non nested, but they are well adapted to the probability density functions with compact support for the random in...

  3. High-Temperature Oxidation of Plutonium Surrogate Metals and Alloys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sparks, Joshua C. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Krantz, Kelsie E. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Christian, Jonathan H. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Washington, II, Aaron L. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2016-07-27

    The Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement (PMDA) is a nuclear non-proliferation agreement designed to remove 34 tons of weapons-grade plutonium from Russia and the United States. While several removal options have been proposed since the agreement was first signed in 2000, processing the weapons-grade plutonium to mixed-oxide (MOX) fuel has remained the leading candidate for achieving the goals of the PMDA. However, the MOX program has received its share of criticisms, which causes its future to be uncertain. One alternative pathway for plutonium disposition would involve oxidizing the metal followed by impurity down blending and burial in the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in Carlsbad, New Mexico. This pathway was investigated by use of a hybrid microwave and a muffle furnace with Fe and Al as surrogate materials. Oxidation occurred similarly in the microwave and muffle furnace; however, the microwave process time was significantly faster.

  4. Protein prosthesis: β-peptides as reverse-turn surrogates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Ulrich; Huck, Bayard R; Gellman, Samuel H; Raines, Ronald T

    2013-03-01

    The introduction of non-natural modules could provide unprecedented control over folding/unfolding behavior, conformational stability, and biological function of proteins. Success requires the interrogation of candidate modules in natural contexts. Here, expressed protein ligation is used to replace a reverse turn in bovine pancreatic ribonuclease (RNase A) with a synthetic β-dipeptide: β²-homoalanine-β³-homoalanine. This segment is known to adopt an unnatural reverse-turn conformation that contains a 10-membered ring hydrogen bond, but one with a donor-acceptor pattern opposite to that in the 10-membered rings of natural reverse turns. The RNase A variant has intact enzymatic activity, but unfolds more quickly and has diminished conformational stability relative to native RNase A. These data indicate that hydrogen-bonding pattern merits careful consideration in the selection of beneficial reverse-turn surrogates. Copyright © 2012 The Protein Society.

  5. Argan oil improves surrogate markers of CVD in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sour, Souad; Belarbi, Meriem; Khaldi, Darine; Benmansour, Nassima; Sari, Nassima; Nani, Abdelhafid; Chemat, Farid; Visioli, Francesco

    2012-06-01

    Limited - though increasing - evidence suggests that argan oil might be endowed with potential healthful properties, mostly in the areas of CVD and prostate cancer. We sought to comprehensively determine the effects of argan oil supplementation on the plasma lipid profile and antioxidant status of a group of healthy Algerian subjects, compared with matched controls. A total of twenty healthy subjects consumed 15 g/d of argan oil - with toasted bread - for breakfast, during 4 weeks (intervention group), whereas twenty matched controls followed their habitual diet, but did not consume argan oil. The study lasted 30 d. At the end of the study, argan oil-supplemented subjects exhibited higher plasma vitamin E concentrations, lower total and LDL-cholesterol, lower TAG and improved plasma and cellular antioxidant profile, when compared with controls. In conclusion, we showed that Algerian argan oil is able to positively modulate some surrogate markers of CVD, through mechanisms which warrant further investigation.

  6. Cholesterol paradox: a correlate does not a surrogate make.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DuBroff, Robert

    2017-03-01

    The global campaign to lower cholesterol by diet and drugs has failed to thwart the developing pandemic of coronary heart disease around the world. Some experts believe this failure is due to the explosive rise in obesity and diabetes, but it is equally plausible that the cholesterol hypothesis, which posits that lowering cholesterol prevents cardiovascular disease, is incorrect. The recently presented ACCELERATE trial dumbfounded many experts by failing to demonstrate any cardiovascular benefit of evacetrapib despite dramatically lowering low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and raising high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in high-risk patients with coronary disease. This clinical trial adds to a growing volume of knowledge that challenges the validity of the cholesterol hypothesis and the utility of cholesterol as a surrogate end point. Inadvertently, the cholesterol hypothesis may have even contributed to this pandemic. This perspective critically reviews this evidence and our reluctance to acknowledge contradictory information.

  7. Fire Danger and Fire Weather Records

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (formerly Weather Bureau) and Forest Service developed a program to track meteorological conditions conducive to forest fires, resulting...

  8. SIGWX Charts - High Level Significant Weather

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — High level significant weather (SIGWX) forecasts are provided for the en-route portion of international flights. NOAA's National Weather Service Aviation Center...

  9. Integrating Sphere-based Weathering Device

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Description:In the artificial ultraviolet (UV) weathering of materials, a need exists for weathering devices that can uniformly illuminate test specimens with a high...

  10. NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit (WCT)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit is an application that provides simple visualization and data export of weather and climatological data archived at NCDC. The...

  11. Newspaper Clippings and Articles (Weather-related)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather-related newspaper articles and photos, almost exclusively from Baltimore, MD and nearby areas. Includes storm damage, rainfall reports, and weather's affect...

  12. Rainmakers: why bad weather means good productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jooa Julia; Gino, Francesca; Staats, Bradley R

    2014-05-01

    People believe that weather conditions influence their everyday work life, but to date, little is known about how weather affects individual productivity. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we predict and find that bad weather increases individual productivity and that it does so by eliminating potential cognitive distractions resulting from good weather. When the weather is bad, individuals appear to focus more on their work than on alternate outdoor activities. We investigate the proposed relationship between worse weather and higher productivity through 4 studies: (a) field data on employees' productivity from a bank in Japan, (b) 2 studies from an online labor market in the United States, and (c) a laboratory experiment. Our findings suggest that worker productivity is higher on bad-, rather than good-, weather days and that cognitive distractions associated with good weather may explain the relationship. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of our research.

  13. National Weather Service County Warning Area Boundaries

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains polygons corresponding to the County Warning Areas (CWAs) of each Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in the National Weather Service (NWS).

  14. National Weather Service: Watch, Warning, Advisory Display

    Science.gov (United States)

    weather.gov Site Map News Organization Search for: SPC NCEP All NOAA Search by city or zip ... Fire Wx Outlooks RSS Feeds E-Mail Alerts Weather Information Storm Reports Storm Reports Dev. NWS Hazards ...

  15. Adaptive Weather Forecasting using Local Meteorological Information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.; Keesman, K.J.

    2005-01-01

    In general, meteorological parameters such as temperature, rain and global radiation are important for agricultural systems. Anticipating on future conditions is most often needed in these systems. Weather forecasts then become of substantial importance. As weather forecasts are subject to

  16. Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Binkowski

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europe. Constructing weather derivatives relies on qu- antifying climate factors in the form of indexes, what is quite simple task, more difficultly can be gathering precise historical data of required climate factors. Taking into consideration so far development of derivatives ñ especially the financial derivatives based on different types of indexes ñ financial market has at disposal wide range of different types of proved derivatives (futures, forward, options, swaps, which can be successfully utilised on the weather-driven markets both for hedging weather risk and speculating.

  17. World War II Weather Record Transmittances

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — World War II Weather Record Transmittances are a record of the weather and meteorological data observed during World War II and transferred to the archive. It...

  18. Technological advances in suspended-sediment surrogate monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, John R.; Gartner, Jeffrey W.

    2009-01-01

    Surrogate technologies to continuously monitor suspended sediment show promise toward supplanting traditional data collection methods requiring routine collection and analysis of water samples. Commercially available instruments operating on bulk optic (turbidity), laser optic, pressure difference, and acoustic backscatter principles are evaluated based on cost, reliability, robustness, accuracy, sample volume, susceptibility to biological fouling, and suitable range of mass concentration and particle size distribution. In situ turbidimeters are widely used. They provide reliable data where the point measurements can be reliably correlated to the river's mean cross section concentration value, effects of biological fouling can be minimized, and concentrations remain below the sensor's upper measurement limit. In situ laser diffraction instruments have similar limitations and can cost 6 times the approximate $5000 purchase price of a turbidimeter. However, laser diffraction instruments provide volumetric-concentration data in 32 size classes. Pressure differential instruments measure mass density in a water column, thus integrating substantially more streamflow than a point measurement. They are designed for monitoring medium-to-large concentrations, are generally unaffected by biological fouling, and cost about the same as a turbidimeter. However, their performance has been marginal in field applications. Acoustic Doppler profilers use acoustic backscatter to measure suspended sediment concentrations in orders of magnitude more streamflow than do instruments that rely on point measurements. The technology is relatively robust and generally immune to effects of biological fouling. Cost of a single-frequency device is about double that of a turbidimeter. Multifrequency arrays also provide the potential to resolve concentrations by clay silt versus sand size fractions. Multifrequency hydroacoustics shows the most promise for revolutionizing collection of continuous

  19. Effectiveness of chitosan on the inactivation of enteric viral surrogates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Robert; Zivanovic, Svetlana; D'Souza, Doris H; Davidson, P Michael

    2012-10-01

    Chitosan is known to have bactericidal and antifungal activity. Although human noroviruses are the leading cause of non-bacterial gastroenteritis, information on the efficacy of chitosan against foodborne viruses is very limited. The objective of this work was to determine the effectiveness of different molecular weight chitosans against the cultivable human norovirus and enteric virus surrogates, feline calicivirus, FCV-F9, murine norovirus, MNV-1, and bacteriophages, MS2 and phiX174. Five purified chitosans (53, 222, 307, 421, ~1150 kDa) were dissolved in water, 1% acetic acid, or aqueous HCl pH = 4.3, sterilized by membrane filtration, and mixed with equal volume of virus to obtain a final concentration of 0.7% chitosan and 5 log(10) PFU/ml virus. Virus-chitosan suspensions were incubated for 3 h at 37 °C. Untreated viruses in PBS, in PBS with acetic acid, and in PBS with HCl were tested as controls. Each experiment was run in duplicate and replicated at least twice. Water-soluble chitosan (53 kDa) reduced phiX174, MS2, FCV-F9 and MNV-1 titers by 0.59, 2.44, 3.36, and 0.34 log(10) PFU/ml respectively. Chitosans in acetic acid decreased phiX174 by 1.19-1.29, MS2 by 1.88-5.37, FCV-F9 by 2.27-2.94, and MNV-1 by 0.09-0.28 log(10) PFU/ml, respectively. Increasing the MW of chitosan corresponded with an increasing antiviral effect on MS2, but did not appear to play a role for the other three tested viral surrogates. Overall, chitosan treatments showed the greatest reduction for FCV-F9, and MS2 followed by phiX174, and with no significant effect on MNV-1.

  20. Potential cryptosporidium surrogates and evaluation of compressible oocysts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, S.Y.; Goodrich, J.A.; Owens, J.H. [Environmental Protection Agency, Cincinnati, OH (United States)] [and others

    1995-10-01

    Cryptosporidium has been recognized as an important waterborne agent of gastroenteritis and a biological contaminant in drinking water. The widespread presence of Cryptosporidium in surface source water and either untreated or insufficiently treated drinking water has led to Cryptosporidium outbreaks in the United States and worldwide. Among the conventional control practices, filtration and high temperature distillation appear to be the potentially viable technologies for protection against Cryptosporidium in drinking water. As employed in many water plants, filtration is likely to be the most practical treatment technology utilized for Cryptosporidium removal in the near future. Consequently, accurate and reliable methods for evaluation of Cryptosporidium removal rates for filtration-based systems are necessary to assist States in determining drinking water quality and complying with the up-coming national standard for Cryptosporidium in drinking water. Furthermore, searching for reliable and non-hazardous surrogates for evaluation of treatment plant efficiency has been intensified because of the potential health risk associated with Cryptosporidium. Additionally, during the filtration procedure Cryptosporidium may squeeze and fold through pores size of the filtration systems that are smaller than the diameter of the organism; a fraction of these Cryptosporidium oocysts may still remain a certain degree of viability. These uncertainties are critical for the evaluation and optimization of filtration-based physical treatment systems. The in-house research studies described below consist of two parts. One is a potential surrogate study using bag filtration systems at the US EPA Test & Evaluation Facility in Cincinnati, Ohio. The second is Cryptosporidium compressibility and viability investigation.

  1. Surrogate-assisted feature extraction for high-throughput phenotyping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Sheng; Chakrabortty, Abhishek; Liao, Katherine P; Cai, Tianrun; Ananthakrishnan, Ashwin N; Gainer, Vivian S; Churchill, Susanne E; Szolovits, Peter; Murphy, Shawn N; Kohane, Isaac S; Cai, Tianxi

    2017-04-01

    Phenotyping algorithms are capable of accurately identifying patients with specific phenotypes from within electronic medical records systems. However, developing phenotyping algorithms in a scalable way remains a challenge due to the extensive human resources required. This paper introduces a high-throughput unsupervised feature selection method, which improves the robustness and scalability of electronic medical record phenotyping without compromising its accuracy. The proposed Surrogate-Assisted Feature Extraction (SAFE) method selects candidate features from a pool of comprehensive medical concepts found in publicly available knowledge sources. The target phenotype's International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision and natural language processing counts, acting as noisy surrogates to the gold-standard labels, are used to create silver-standard labels. Candidate features highly predictive of the silver-standard labels are selected as the final features. Algorithms were trained to identify patients with coronary artery disease, rheumatoid arthritis, Crohn's disease, and ulcerative colitis using various numbers of labels to compare the performance of features selected by SAFE, a previously published automated feature extraction for phenotyping procedure, and domain experts. The out-of-sample area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and F -score from SAFE algorithms were remarkably higher than those from the other two, especially at small label sizes. SAFE advances high-throughput phenotyping methods by automatically selecting a succinct set of informative features for algorithm training, which in turn reduces overfitting and the needed number of gold-standard labels. SAFE also potentially identifies important features missed by automated feature extraction for phenotyping or experts.

  2. Pan masala advertisements are surrogate for tobacco products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sushma C

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Pan masala is a comparatively recent habit in India and is marketed with and without tobacco. Advertisements of tobacco products have been banned in India since 1st May 2004. The advertisements of plain pan masala, which continue in Indian media, have been suspected to be surrogate for tobacco products bearing the same name. The study was carried out to assess whether these advertisements were for the intended product, or for tobacco products with same brand name. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The programme of a popular television Hindi news channel was watched for a 24-h period. Programmes on the same channel and its English counterpart were watched on different days to assess whether the advertisements were repeated. The total duration of telecast of a popular brand of plain pan masala (Pan Parag was multiplied by the rate charged by the channel to provide the cost of advertisement of this product. The total sale value of the company was multiplied by the proportion of usage of plain pan masala out of gutka plus pan masala habit as observed from a different study, to provide the annual sale value of plain pan masala product under reference. RESULTS: The annual sale value of plain Pan Parag was estimated to be Rs. 67.1 million. The annual cost of the advertisement of the same product on two television channels was estimated at Rs. 244.6 million. CONCLUSION: The advertisements of plain pan masala seen on Indian television are a surrogate for the tobacco products bearing the same name.

  3. Decision Making Models Using Weather Forecast Information

    OpenAIRE

    Hiramatsu, Akio; Huynh, Van-Nam; Nakamori, Yoshiteru

    2007-01-01

    The quality of weather forecast has gradually improved, but weather information such as precipitation forecast is still uncertainty. Meteorologists have studied the use and economic value of weather information, and users have to translate weather information into their most desirable action. To maximize the economic value of users, the decision maker should select the optimum course of action for his company or project, based on an appropriate decision strategy under uncertain situations. In...

  4. Learning image based surrogate relevance criterion for atlas selection in segmentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Tingting; Ruan, Dan

    2016-06-01

    Picking geometrically relevant atlases from the whole training set is crucial to multi-atlas based image segmentation, especially with extensive data of heterogeneous quality in the Big Data era. Unfortunately, there is very limited understanding of how currently used image similarity criteria reveal geometric relevance, let alone the optimization of them. This paper aims to develop a good image based surrogate relevance criterion to best reflect the underlying inaccessible geometric relevance in a learning context. We cast this surrogate learning problem into an optimization framework, by encouraging the image based surrogate to behave consistently with geometric relevance during training. In particular, we desire a criterion to be small for image pairs with similar geometry and large for those with significantly different segmentation geometry. Validation experiments on corpus callosum segmentation demonstrate the improved quality of the learned surrogate compared to benchmark surrogate candidates.

  5. Space Weather Receives First "Impact Rating"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanzerotti, Louis J.

    2007-08-01

    Journal Citation Reports, published by Thomson Scientific (http://scientific.thomson.com/isi/), has issued its first impact factor for Space Weather. It is 1.610. I consider this number to be very good, strongly validating the impact that Space Weather has already made in its short life within the community of space weather professionals.

  6. Space Weather Effects on Range Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-01

    www.windows2universe.org/space_weather/space_weather.html What are scientists talking about when they say “space weather”? How is it like weather on...particle events observed by ground level, high latitude neutron monitors and the Concorde observations are summarised in Table 1 (Refs. 12 & 13), which

  7. Reducing prediction uncertainty of weather controlled systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.

    2007-01-01

    In closed agricultural systems the weather acts both as a disturbance and as a resource. By using weather forecasts in control strategies the effects of disturbances can be minimized whereas the resources can be utilized. In this situation weather forecast uncertainty and model based control are cou

  8. 49 CFR 195.224 - Welding: Weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Welding: Weather. 195.224 Section 195.224 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY... PIPELINE Construction § 195.224 Welding: Weather. Welding must be protected from weather conditions...

  9. Efficient Ways to Learn Weather Radar Polarimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Qing; Yeary, M. B.; Zhang, Guifu

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. weather radar network is currently being upgraded with dual-polarization capability. Weather radar polarimetry is an interdisciplinary area of engineering and meteorology. This paper presents efficient ways to learn weather radar polarimetry through several basic and practical topics. These topics include: 1) hydrometeor scattering model…

  10. The Early Years: The Wonders of Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashbrook, Peggy

    2013-01-01

    This article reports on the wonders of winter weather, as it often inspires teachers' and students' interest in collecting weather data, especially if snow falls. Beginning weather data collection in preschool will introduce children to the concepts of making regular observations of natural phenomena, recording the observations (data),…

  11. Reducing prediction uncertainty of weather controlled systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.

    2007-01-01

    In closed agricultural systems the weather acts both as a disturbance and as a resource. By using weather forecasts in control strategies the effects of disturbances can be minimized whereas the resources can be utilized. In this situation weather forecast uncertainty and model based control are cou

  12. Efficient Ways to Learn Weather Radar Polarimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Qing; Yeary, M. B.; Zhang, Guifu

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. weather radar network is currently being upgraded with dual-polarization capability. Weather radar polarimetry is an interdisciplinary area of engineering and meteorology. This paper presents efficient ways to learn weather radar polarimetry through several basic and practical topics. These topics include: 1) hydrometeor scattering model…

  13. A computational methodology for formulating gasoline surrogate fuels with accurate physical and chemical kinetic properties

    KAUST Repository

    Ahmed, Ahfaz

    2015-03-01

    Gasoline is the most widely used fuel for light duty automobile transportation, but its molecular complexity makes it intractable to experimentally and computationally study the fundamental combustion properties. Therefore, surrogate fuels with a simpler molecular composition that represent real fuel behavior in one or more aspects are needed to enable repeatable experimental and computational combustion investigations. This study presents a novel computational methodology for formulating surrogates for FACE (fuels for advanced combustion engines) gasolines A and C by combining regression modeling with physical and chemical kinetics simulations. The computational methodology integrates simulation tools executed across different software platforms. Initially, the palette of surrogate species and carbon types for the target fuels were determined from a detailed hydrocarbon analysis (DHA). A regression algorithm implemented in MATLAB was linked to REFPROP for simulation of distillation curves and calculation of physical properties of surrogate compositions. The MATLAB code generates a surrogate composition at each iteration, which is then used to automatically generate CHEMKIN input files that are submitted to homogeneous batch reactor simulations for prediction of research octane number (RON). The regression algorithm determines the optimal surrogate composition to match the fuel properties of FACE A and C gasoline, specifically hydrogen/carbon (H/C) ratio, density, distillation characteristics, carbon types, and RON. The optimal surrogate fuel compositions obtained using the present computational approach was compared to the real fuel properties, as well as with surrogate compositions available in the literature. Experiments were conducted within a Cooperative Fuels Research (CFR) engine operating under controlled autoignition (CAI) mode to compare the formulated surrogates against the real fuels. Carbon monoxide measurements indicated that the proposed surrogates

  14. Simulator Of A "Weather" Cloud

    OpenAIRE

    Khramenkova, Ksenia; Hermant, Olivier; Pawlak, Renaud

    2012-01-01

    International audience; In this article a cloud simulator for the "weather" cloud is considered. The purpose of such a simulator is evaluating different cloud architectures and algorithms before implementation. The main idea is to analyze the performance beforehand, in order to avoid unsuitable algorithms being implemented in a real cloud. Two methods of request allocation policies to the nodes are considered. Their behavior in terms of interaction with nodes' cachememory is compared. Finally...

  15. Weather, Climate and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beer, T.

    2016-12-01

    To climatologists food security is dominated by the impacts of weather and climate on food systems. But the link between the atmosphere and food security is more complex. Extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones impact directly on agriculture, but they also impact on the logistical distribution of food and can thus disrupt the food supply chain, especially in urban areas. Drought affects human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. It represents a pending danger for vulnerable agricultural systems that depend on the rainfall, water supply and reservoirs. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Drought, especially when it results in famine, can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. A holistic approach is required to understand the phenomena, to forecast catastrophic events such as drought and famine and to predict their societal consequences. In the Food Security recommendations of the Rio+20 Forum on Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Development it states that it is important "To understand fully how to measure, assess and reduce the impacts of production on the natural environment including climate change, recognizing that different measures of impact (e.g. water, land, biodiversity, carbon and other greenhouse gases, etc) may trade-off against each other..." This talk will review the historical link between weather, climate, drought and food supplies; examine the international situation; and summarise the response of the scientific community

  16. The Weather and Climate Toolkit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ansari, S.; Del Greco, S.; Hankins, B.

    2010-12-01

    The Weather and Climate Toolkit (WCT) is free, platform independent software distributed from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The WCT allows the visualization and data export of weather and climate data, including Radar, Satellite and Model data. By leveraging the NetCDF for Java library and Common Data Model, the WCT is extremely scalable and capable of supporting many new datasets in the future. Gridded NetCDF files (regular and irregularly spaced, using Climate-Forecast (CF) conventions) are supported, along with many other formats including GRIB. The WCT provides tools for custom data overlays, Web Map Service (WMS) background maps, animations and basic filtering. The export of images and movies is provided in multiple formats. The WCT Data Export Wizard allows for data export in both vector polygon/point (Shapefile, Well-Known Text) and raster (GeoTIFF, ESRI Grid, VTK, Gridded NetCDF) formats. These data export features promote the interoperability of weather and climate information with various scientific communities and common software packages such as ArcGIS, Google Earth, MatLAB, GrADS and R. The WCT also supports an embedded, integrated Google Earth instance. The Google Earth Browser Plugin allows seamless visualization of data on a native 3-D Google Earth instance linked to the standard 2-D map. Level-II NEXRAD data for Hurricane Katrina GPCP (Global Precipitation Product), visualized in 2-D and internal Google Earth view.

  17. Positive lightning and severe weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, C.; Murphy, B.

    2003-04-01

    In recent years researchers have noticed that severe weather (tornados, hail and damaging winds) are closely related to the amount of positive lightning occurring in thunderstorms. On 4 July 1999, a severe derecho (wind storm) caused extensive damage to forested regions along the United States/Canada border, west of Lake Superior. There were 665,000 acres of forest destroyed in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness (BWCAW) in Minnesota and Quetico Provincial Park in Canada, with approximately 12.5 million trees blown down. This storm resulted in additional severe weather before and after the occurrence of the derecho, with continuous cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning occurring for more than 34 hours during its path across North America. At the time of the derecho the percentage of positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) lightning measured by the Canadian Lightning Detection Network (CLDN) was greater than 70% for more than three hours, with peak values reaching 97% positive CG lightning. Such high ratios of +CG are rare, and may be useful indicators for short-term forecasts of severe weather.

  18. A Review of Footwear for Cold/Wet Scenarios. Part 1. The Boot

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-12-01

    of a footwear research and development project. RfSUMt Ce resume porte sur un aspect precis du vaste domaine des articlet chau3sants. Le cadre...On presente une liste exhaustive des besoins en cause, et on traite de certains materiaux , designs et techniques de zonstruction pouvant repondre

  19. The Frustrating Lives of Climate Scientists - 45 Years of Warm, Cold, Wet and Dry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toon, O. B.; Hartwick, V.; Urata, R. A.

    2016-12-01

    Mariner 9 arrived at Mars in November 1971, where it revealed giant volcanoes and dry river valleys some of which originated from rainfall or runoff. Some geologists think there were oceans, tidal waves, craters that filled to their rims and then overflowed or didn't overflow, and river deltas reaching into the ancient seas and lakes. Climate scientists have stumbled through a 45 year-long chain of failed explanations for these geologic data. CO2 in greater abundance than now is likely involved, but not sufficient. Adding CH4 , CO2 clouds, or SO2 have faltered on further study. Three ideas are still being kicked around, two of which are able to make Mars warm, but may have geologic issues. First, is the idea of adding H2 to the CO2, which warms sufficiently in climate models. However, the large quantities needed are a challenge to outgassing models. Second, is impacts, the largest of which would mobilize most of the water in the regolith. Geologists object that the water from impacts would not last long enough to carve rivers. However, no one has explored the concurrent generation of the regolith by these impacts, which would create a loose, easily erodible surface. Are the rivers all in ancient regolith? If some rivers are in bedrock it would be harder to explain by impacts. Finally, impacts may triggered water/cloud greenhouses. Such a climate state would be long lasting, requires only a modest background atmosphere of carbon dioxide, and would fade away when the carbon dioxide dropped below a few hundred mbar. However, not all climate models have been able to produce such water driven greenhouse warming. In this talk I will outline the history of these climate models, point to evidence that might discriminate between them, describe how the water greenhouse models work or don't work, and suggest some new projects that might be done to decide just how warm and wet Mars may have been.

  20. Definitions and validation criteria for biomarkers and surrogate endpoints: development and testing of a quantitative hierarchical levels of evidence schema

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lassere, Marissa N; Johnson, Kent R; Boers, Maarten

    2007-01-01

    of the National Institutes of Health definitions of biomarker, surrogate endpoint, and clinical endpoint was useful. CONCLUSION: Further development and application of this schema provides incentives and guidance for effective biomarker and surrogate endpoint research, and more efficient drug discovery...... endpoints, and leading indicators, a quantitative surrogate validation schema was developed and subsequently evaluated at a stakeholder workshop. RESULTS: The search identified several classification schema and definitions. Components of these were incorporated into a new quantitative surrogate validation...

  1. Operational Space Weather Activities in the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Thomas; Singer, Howard; Onsager, Terrance; Viereck, Rodney; Murtagh, William; Rutledge, Robert

    2016-07-01

    We review the current activities in the civil operational space weather forecasting enterprise of the United States. The NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center is the nation's official source of space weather watches, warnings, and alerts, working with partners in the Air Force as well as international operational forecast services to provide predictions, data, and products on a large variety of space weather phenomena and impacts. In October 2015, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy released the National Space Weather Strategy (NSWS) and associated Space Weather Action Plan (SWAP) that define how the nation will better forecast, mitigate, and respond to an extreme space weather event. The SWAP defines actions involving multiple federal agencies and mandates coordination and collaboration with academia, the private sector, and international bodies to, among other things, develop and sustain an operational space weather observing system; develop and deploy new models of space weather impacts to critical infrastructure systems; define new mechanisms for the transition of research models to operations and to ensure that the research community is supported for, and has access to, operational model upgrade paths; and to enhance fundamental understanding of space weather through support of research models and observations. The SWAP will guide significant aspects of space weather operational and research activities for the next decade, with opportunities to revisit the strategy in the coming years through the auspices of the National Science and Technology Council.

  2. Laboratory Testing of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Surrogate Waste Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broome, S.; Bronowski, D.; Pfeifle, T.; Herrick, C. G.

    2011-12-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is a U.S. Department of Energy geological repository for the permanent disposal of defense-related transuranic (TRU) waste. The waste is emplaced in rooms excavated in the bedded Salado salt formation at a depth of 655 m below the ground surface. After emplacement of the waste, the repository will be sealed and decommissioned. WIPP Performance Assessment modeling of the underground material response requires a full and accurate understanding of coupled mechanical, hydrological, and geochemical processes and how they evolve with time. This study was part of a broader test program focused on room closure, specifically the compaction behavior of waste and the constitutive relations to model this behavior. The goal of this study was to develop an improved waste constitutive model. The model parameters are developed based on a well designed set of test data. The constitutive model will then be used to realistically model evolution of the underground and to better understand the impacts on repository performance. The present study results are focused on laboratory testing of surrogate waste materials. The surrogate wastes correspond to a conservative estimate of the degraded containers and TRU waste materials after the 10,000 year regulatory period. Testing consists of hydrostatic, uniaxial, and triaxial tests performed on surrogate waste recipes that were previously developed by Hansen et al. (1997). These recipes can be divided into materials that simulate 50% and 100% degraded waste by weight. The percent degradation indicates the anticipated amount of iron corrosion, as well as the decomposition of cellulosics, plastics, and rubbers. Axial, lateral, and volumetric strain and axial and lateral stress measurements were made. Two unique testing techniques were developed during the course of the experimental program. The first involves the use of dilatometry to measure sample volumetric strain under a hydrostatic condition. Bulk

  3. Characterization of the Weatherization Assistance Program network. Weatherization Assistance Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mihlmester, P.E.; Koehler, W.C. Jr.; Beyer, M.A. [Aspen Systems Corp., Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Applied Management Sciences Div.; Brown, M.A. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Beschen, D.A. Jr. [Department of Energy, Washington, DC (United States). Office of Weatherization Assistance Programs

    1992-02-01

    The Characterization of the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) Network was designed to describe the national network of State and local agencies that provide WAP services to qualifying low-income households. The objective of this study was to profile the current WAP network. To achieve the objective, two national surveys were conducted: one survey collected data from 49 State WAP agencies (including the coterminous 48 States and the District of Columbia), and the second survey collected data from 920 (or 81 percent) of the local WAP agencies.

  4. A general framework to learn surrogate relevance criterion for atlas based image segmentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Tingting; Ruan, Dan

    2016-09-01

    Multi-atlas based image segmentation sees great opportunities in the big data era but also faces unprecedented challenges in identifying positive contributors from extensive heterogeneous data. To assess data relevance, image similarity criteria based on various image features widely serve as surrogates for the inaccessible geometric agreement criteria. This paper proposes a general framework to learn image based surrogate relevance criteria to better mimic the behaviors of segmentation based oracle geometric relevance. The validity of its general rationale is verified in the specific context of fusion set selection for image segmentation. More specifically, we first present a unified formulation for surrogate relevance criteria and model the neighborhood relationship among atlases based on the oracle relevance knowledge. Surrogates are then trained to be small for geometrically relevant neighbors and large for irrelevant remotes to the given targets. The proposed surrogate learning framework is verified in corpus callosum segmentation. The learned surrogates demonstrate superiority in inferring the underlying oracle value and selecting relevant fusion set, compared to benchmark surrogates.

  5. Surrogate mobility and orientation affect the early neurobehavioral development of infant rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettmer, Amanda M; Ruggiero, Angela M; Novak, Melinda A; Meyer, Jerrold S; Suomi, Stephen J

    2008-05-01

    A biological mother's movement appears necessary for optimal development in infant monkeys. However, nursery-reared monkeys are typically provided with inanimate surrogate mothers that move very little. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of a novel, highly mobile surrogate mother on motor development, exploration, and reactions to novelty. Six infant rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) were reared on mobile hanging surrogates (MS) and compared to six infants reared on standard stationary rocking surrogates (RS) and to 9-15 infants reared with their biological mothers (MR) for early developmental outcome. We predicted that MS infants would develop more similarly to MR infants than RS infants. In neonatal assessments conducted at Day 30, both MS and MR infants showed more highly developed motor activity than RS infants on measures of grasping (p = .009), coordination (p = .038), spontaneous crawl (p = .009), and balance (p = .003). At 2-3 months of age, both MS and MR infants displayed higher levels of exploration in the home cage than RS infants (p = .016). In a novel situation in which only MS and RS infants were tested, MS infants spent less time near their surrogates in the first five minutes of the test session than RS infants (p = .05), indicating a higher level of comfort. Collectively, these results suggest that when nursery-rearing of infant monkeys is necessary, a mobile hanging surrogate may encourage more normative development of gross motor skills and exploratory behavior and may serve as a useful alternative to stationary or rocking surrogates.

  6. A general framework to learn surrogate relevance criterion for atlas based image segmentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Tingting; Ruan, Dan

    2016-09-07

    Multi-atlas based image segmentation sees great opportunities in the big data era but also faces unprecedented challenges in identifying positive contributors from extensive heterogeneous data. To assess data relevance, image similarity criteria based on various image features widely serve as surrogates for the inaccessible geometric agreement criteria. This paper proposes a general framework to learn image based surrogate relevance criteria to better mimic the behaviors of segmentation based oracle geometric relevance. The validity of its general rationale is verified in the specific context of fusion set selection for image segmentation. More specifically, we first present a unified formulation for surrogate relevance criteria and model the neighborhood relationship among atlases based on the oracle relevance knowledge. Surrogates are then trained to be small for geometrically relevant neighbors and large for irrelevant remotes to the given targets. The proposed surrogate learning framework is verified in corpus callosum segmentation. The learned surrogates demonstrate superiority in inferring the underlying oracle value and selecting relevant fusion set, compared to benchmark surrogates.

  7. Results from Second Round of Remediated Nitrate Salt Surrogate Formulation and Testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Geoffrey Wayne [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Leonard, Philip [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hartline, Ernest Leon [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Tian, Hongzhao [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2016-04-04

    High Explosives and Technology (M-7) completed the second round of formulation and testing of Remediated Nitrate Salt (RNS) surrogates on March 17, 2016. This report summarizes the results of the work and also includes additional documentation required under test plan PLAN-TA9-2443 Rev B, "Remediated Nitrate Salt (RNS) Surrogate Formulation and Testing Standard Procedure", released February 16, 2016. All formulation and testing was carried out according to PLAN-TA9-2443 Rev B. Results from the first round of formulation and testing were documented in memorandum M7-16-6042, "Results from First Round of Remediated Nitrate Salt Surrogate Formulation and Testing."

  8. Assessing the potential of surrogate EPS to mimic natural biofilm mechanical properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thom, Moritz; Schimmels, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Biofilms growing on benthic sediments may increase the resistance towards erosion considerably by the sticky nature of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS). The EPS is a biopolymer which is secreted by the microorganisms inhabiting the biofilm matrix and may be regarded as natural glue. However, laboratory studies on the biostabilization effect mediated by biofilms are often hampered by the unavailability of "environmental" flumes in which light intensities, water temperature and nutrient content can be controlled. To allow investigations on biostabilization in "traditional" flume settings the use of surrogate materials is studied. Another advantage of using appropriate surrogates is the potential to reduce the experimental time, as compared to cultivating natural biofilms, the surrogates can readily be designed to mimic biofilms at different growth stages. Furthermore, the use of surrogates which are expected to have more homogeneous mechanical properties could facilitate fundamental studies to improve our knowledge on biostabilization. Even though a number of studies have already utilized EPS surrogates it is not clear how to mix them to correctly mimic natural EPS mechanical properties. In this study the adhesiveness (a measure of stickiness) on the surface of several EPS surrogates (e.g. Xanthan Gum, sodium alginate) is measured. These surrogates which are originally used in the food industry as rheology modifiers are mixed by adding water to a powder at a desired concentration (C). The measured surface adhesion of different surrogates at different concentrations ranged from 0.5 to 6.7 N/m2, which is well in line with values found for laboratory cultured biofilms. We found that the surrogate characteristics differed largely especially in regard to a) the response of the adhesiveness to increased concentrations (powder to water) and b) in their rheological characteristics. A seemingly promising surrogate for the use in biostabilization studies is Xanthan Gum

  9. Children of surrogate mothers: psychological well-being, family relationships and experiences of surrogacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jadva, V; Imrie, S

    2014-01-01

    What impact does surrogacy have on the surrogates' own children? The children of surrogate mothers do not experience any negative consequences as a result of their mother's decision to be a surrogate, irrespective of whether or not the surrogate uses her own egg. Participants were recruited as part of a study of the long-term effects of surrogacy for surrogates and their family members. Data were collected from 36 children of surrogates at a single time point. Participants whose mother had been a surrogate 5-15 years prior to interview and who were aged over 12 years were eligible to take part. Thirty-six participants (14 male and 22 female) aged 12-25 years were interviewed (response rate = 52%). Questionnaires assessing psychological health and family functioning were administered. Forty-four per cent (15) of participants' mothers had undergone gestational surrogacy, 39% (14) had used their own egg (genetic surrogacy) and 19% (7) had completed both types of surrogacy. Most surrogates' children (86%, 31) had a positive view of their mother's surrogacy. Forty-seven per cent (17) of children were in contact with the surrogacy child and all reported good relationships with him/her. Forty per cent (14) of children referred to the child as a sibling or half-sibling and this did not differ between genetic and gestational surrogacy. Most children (89%, 32), reported a positive view of family life, with all enjoying spending time with their mother. Mean scores on the questionnaire assessments of psychological health and self-esteem were within the normal range and did not differ by surrogacy type. The sample size for this study was relatively small and not all children chose to take part, therefore their views cannot be known. Nevertheless, this is the first study to assess the experiences of surrogacy from the perspective of the surrogates' own children. There may be some bias from the inclusion of siblings from the same family. Findings of this study show that family

  10. Efficient Calibration of Computationally Intensive Groundwater Models through Surrogate Modelling with Lower Levels of Fidelity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razavi, S.; Anderson, D.; Martin, P.; MacMillan, G.; Tolson, B.; Gabriel, C.; Zhang, B.

    2012-12-01

    Many sophisticated groundwater models tend to be computationally intensive as they rigorously represent detailed scientific knowledge about the groundwater systems. Calibration (model inversion), which is a vital step of groundwater model development, can require hundreds or thousands of model evaluations (runs) for different sets of parameters and as such demand prohibitively large computational time and resources. One common strategy to circumvent this computational burden is surrogate modelling which is concerned with developing and utilizing fast-to-run surrogates of the original computationally intensive models (also called fine models). Surrogates can be either based on statistical and data-driven models such as kriging and neural networks or simplified physically-based models with lower fidelity to the original system (also called coarse models). Fidelity in this context refers to the degree of the realism of a simulation model. This research initially investigates different strategies for developing lower-fidelity surrogates of a fine groundwater model and their combinations. These strategies include coarsening the fine model, relaxing the numerical convergence criteria, and simplifying the model geological conceptualisation. Trade-offs between model efficiency and fidelity (accuracy) are of special interest. A methodological framework is developed for coordinating the original fine model with its lower-fidelity surrogates with the objective of efficiently calibrating the parameters of the original model. This framework is capable of mapping the original model parameters to the corresponding surrogate model parameters and also mapping the surrogate model response for the given parameters to the original model response. This framework is general in that it can be used with different optimization and/or uncertainty analysis techniques available for groundwater model calibration and parameter/predictive uncertainty assessment. A real-world computationally

  11. Probability for Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

  12. Evolution of Oxidative Continental Weathering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konhauser, Kurt; Lalonde, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    The Great Oxidation Event (GOE) is currently viewed as a protracted process during which atmospheric oxygen levels increased above 10-5 times the present atmospheric level. This value is based on the loss of sulphur isotope mass independent fractionation (S-MIF) from the rock record, beginning at 2.45 Ga and disappearing by 2.32 Ga. However, a number of recent papers have pushed back the timing for oxidative continental weathering, and by extension, the onset of atmospheric oxygenation several hundreds of million years earlier despite the presence of S-MIF (e.g., Crowe et al., 2013). This apparent discrepancy can, in part, be resolved by the suggestion that recycling of older sedimentary sulphur bearing S-MIF might have led to this signal's persistence in the rock record for some time after atmospheric oxygenation (Reinhard et al., 2013). Here we suggest another possibility, that the earliest oxidative weathering reactions occurred in environments at profound redox disequilibrium with the atmosphere, such as biological soil crusts, riverbed and estuarine sediments, and lacustrine microbial mats. We calculate that the rate of O2 production via oxygenic photosynthesis in these terrestrial microbial ecosystems provides largely sufficient oxidizing potential to mobilise sulphate and a number of redox-sensitive trace metals from land to the oceans while the atmosphere itself remained anoxic with its attendant S-MIF signature. These findings reconcile geochemical signatures in the rock record for the earliest oxidative continental weathering with the history of atmospheric sulphur chemistry, and demonstrate the plausible antiquity of a terrestrial biosphere populated by cyanobacteria. Crowe, S.A., Dossing, L.N., Beukes, N.J., Bau, M., Kruger, S.J., Frei, R. & Canfield, D.E. Atmospheric oxygenation three billion years ago. Nature 501, 535-539 (2013). Reinhard, C.T., Planavsky, N.J. & Lyons, T.W. Long-term sedimentary recycling of rare sulphur isotope anomalies. Nature 497

  13. Effectiveness of amphibians as biodiversity surrogates in pond conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilg, Christiane; Oertli, Beat

    2017-04-01

    Amphibian decline has led to worldwide conservation efforts, including the identification and designation of sites for their protection. These sites could also play an important role in the conservation of other freshwater taxa. In 89 ponds in Switzerland, we assessed the effectiveness of amphibians as a surrogate for 4 taxonomic groups that occur in the same freshwater ecosystems as amphibians: dragonflies, aquatic beetles, aquatic gastropods, and aquatic plants. The ponds were all of high value for amphibian conservation. Cross-taxon correlations were tested for species richness and conservation value, and Mantel tests were used to investigate community congruence. Species richness, conservation value, and community composition of amphibians were weakly congruent with these measures for the other taxonomic groups. Paired comparisons for the 5 groups considered showed that for each metric, amphibians had the lowest degree of congruence. Our results imply that site designation for amphibian conservation will not necessarily provide protection for freshwater biodiversity as a whole. To provide adequate protection for freshwater species, we recommend other taxonomic groups be considered in addition to amphibians in the prioritization and site designation process. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  14. Numerical investigation for erratic behavior of Kriging surrogate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwon, Hyun Gil; Yi, Seul Gi [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Seong Im [Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg (United States)

    2014-09-15

    Kriging model is one of popular spatial/temporal interpolation models in engineering field since it could reduce the time resources for the expensive analysis. But generation of the Kriging model is hardly a sinecure because internal semi-variogram structure of the Kriging often reveals numerically unstable or erratic behaviors. In present study, the issues in the maximum likelihood estimation which are the vital-parts of the construction of the Kriging model, is investigated. These issues are divided into two aspects; Issue I is for the erratic response of likelihood function itself, and Issue II is for numerically unstable behaviors in the correlation matrix. For both issues, studies for specific circumstances which might raise the issue, and the reason of that are conducted. Some practical ways further are suggested to cope with them. Furthermore, the issue is studied for practical problem; aerodynamic performance coefficients of two-dimensional airfoil predicted by CFD analysis. Result shows that such erratic behavior of Kriging surrogate model can be effectively resolved by proposed solution. In conclusion, it is expected this paper could be helpful to prevent such an erratic and unstable behavior.

  15. Protected Gold Nanoparticles with Thioethers and Amines As Surrogate Ligands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rafiq H. Siddiqui

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Dodecyl sulfide, dodecyl amine, and hexylamine were shown to act as surrogate ligands (L via metastable gold nanoparticles. By collating analytical and spectroscopic data obtained simultaneously, empirical formula Au24L was assigned. These impurity-free nanoparticles obtained in near quantitative yields showing exceptional gold assays (up to 98%Au were prepared by a modification of the two-phase method. Replacement reactions on the Au24L showed that Au:L ratios may be increased (up to Au55:L (L= (H25C122S or decreased (Au12:L (L= H2NC12H25 and H2NC6H13 as desired. This work encompassing the role of analytical techniques used, that is, elemental analysis, variable temperature 1H NMR, FAB mass spectrometry, UV-Vis spectroscopy, thin film X-ray diffraction, and high-resolution electron microscopy (HREM has implications in the study of size control, purity, stability, and metal assays of gold nanoparticles.

  16. Investigation of ethosomes as surrogate carriers for bioactives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devina Verma

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Ethosomal vesicular system delivering a bioactive phytochemical, chrysin, was developed for transdermal delivery to increase its permeability and penetrability. Materials and Methods: Ethosomal system was optimized by keeping lecithin and ethanol concentration as independent variable while size and size distribution were taken as dependent variables. The optimized formulation was then subjected to various in vitro characterization parameters. Results: Ethosomal vesicle with an optimum size and polydispersity index of 134 ± 35 nm and 0.153, respectively, and entrapment efficiency of 80.05 ± 2.6% was considered as optimized and subjected to characterization. The scanning electron microscopy and transmission electron microscopy showed spherical entities with uniform surface whereas in vitro permeation and retention study showed the sustained mode of drug release and better skin retention as compared to hydroethanolic solution of the drug. The confocal laser scanning microscopy study reiterated high penetrability of vesicles into the skin. Histopathological and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy analysis revealed its mechanism of penetration. Conclusion : The study thus demonstrated the ability of the ethosomal vesicles as surrogate carriers for delivery of bioactive agents through the skin for better amelioration of skin inflammation and other diseases.

  17. Insurance adaptation to extreme weather

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wakeford, C. [Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2005-07-01

    This paper examined the role of climate change as a catalyst for specific changes in insurance practices. The presentation addressed how insurance companies are adapting behaviours in response to increasing climate variability and growth in severe weather damage. It discussed ancient examples of insurance as well as more modern insurance practices. Statistics on the number of disasters, global natural disaster economic and insured losses and infrastructure spending are presented. Internal adaptation such as prospective underwriting and incentives and external adaptation such as working with governments and organizations and individuals were also discussed. It was concluded that directions for the future include continued research, heightened awareness and more resilient communities. 3 tabs.

  18. Weathering of ordinary chondrites from Oman: Correlation of weathering parameters with 14C terrestrial ages and a refined weathering scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zurfluh, Florian J.; Hofmann, Beda A.; Gnos, Edwin; Eggenberger, Urs; Jull, A. J. Timothy

    2016-09-01

    We have investigated 128 14C-dated ordinary chondrites from Oman for macroscopically visible weathering parameters, for thin section-based weathering degrees, and for chemical weathering parameters as analyzed with handheld X-ray fluorescence. These 128 14C-dated meteorites show an abundance maximum of terrestrial age at 19.9 ka, with a mean of 21.0 ka and a pronounced lack of samples between 0 and 10 ka. The weathering degree is evaluated in thin section using a refined weathering scale based on the current W0 to W6 classification of Wlotzka (1993), with five newly included intermediate steps resulting in a total of nine (formerly six) steps. We find significant correlations between terrestrial ages and several macroscopic weathering parameters. The correlation of various chemical parameters including Sr and Ba with terrestrial age is not very pronounced. The microscopic weathering degree of metal and sulfides with newly added intermediate steps shows the best correlation with 14C terrestrial ages, demonstrating the significance of the newly defined weathering steps. We demonstrate that the observed 14C terrestrial age distribution can be modeled from the abundance of meteorites with different weathering degrees, allowing the evaluation of an age-frequency distribution for the whole meteorite population.

  19. Automatic Weather Station (AWS) Lidar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rall, Jonathan A.R.; Abshire, James B.; Spinhirne, James D.; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    An autonomous, low-power atmospheric lidar instrument is being developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. This compact, portable lidar will operate continuously in a temperature controlled enclosure, charge its own batteries through a combination of a small rugged wind generator and solar panels, and transmit its data from remote locations to ground stations via satellite. A network of these instruments will be established by co-locating them at remote Automatic Weather Station (AWS) sites in Antarctica under the auspices of the National Science Foundation (NSF). The NSF Office of Polar Programs provides support to place the weather stations in remote areas of Antarctica in support of meteorological research and operations. The AWS meteorological data will directly benefit the analysis of the lidar data while a network of ground based atmospheric lidar will provide knowledge regarding the temporal evolution and spatial extent of Type la polar stratospheric clouds (PSC). These clouds play a crucial role in the annual austral springtime destruction of stratospheric ozone over Antarctica, i.e. the ozone hole. In addition, the lidar will monitor and record the general atmospheric conditions (transmission and backscatter) of the overlying atmosphere which will benefit the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS). Prototype lidar instruments have been deployed to the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station (1995-96, 2000) and to an Automated Geophysical Observatory site (AGO 1) in January 1999. We report on data acquired with these instruments, instrument performance, and anticipated performance of the AWS Lidar.

  20. Space weather and space anomalies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Dorman

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available A large database of anomalies, registered by 220 satellites in different orbits over the period 1971-1994 has been compiled. For the first time, data from 49 Russian Kosmos satellites have been included in a statistical analysis. The database also contains a large set of daily and hourly space weather parameters. A series of statistical analyses made it possible to quantify, for different satellite orbits, space weather conditions on the days characterized by anomaly occurrences. In particular, very intense fluxes (>1000 pfu at energy >10 MeV of solar protons are linked to anomalies registered by satellites in high-altitude (>15000 km, near-polar (inclination >55° orbits typical for navigation satellites, such as those used in the GPS network, NAVSTAR, etc. (the rate of anomalies increases by a factor ~20, and to a much smaller extent to anomalies in geostationary orbits, (they increase by a factor ~4. Direct and indirect connections between anomaly occurrence and geomagnetic perturbations are also discussed.

  1. Prediction Techniques in Operational Space Weather Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhukov, Andrei

    2016-07-01

    The importance of forecasting space weather conditions is steadily increasing as our society is becoming more and more dependent on advanced technologies that may be affected by disturbed space weather. Operational space weather forecasting is still a difficult task that requires the real-time availability of input data and specific prediction techniques that are reviewed in this presentation, with an emphasis on solar and interplanetary weather. Key observations that are essential for operational space weather forecasting are listed. Predictions made on the base of empirical and statistical methods, as well as physical models, are described. Their validation, accuracy, and limitations are discussed in the context of operational forecasting. Several important problems in the scientific basis of predicting space weather are described, and possible ways to overcome them are discussed, including novel space-borne observations that could be available in future.

  2. Five case studies of multifamily weatherization programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kinney, L; Wilson, T.; Lewis, G. [Synertech Systems Corp. (United States); MacDonald, M. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

    1997-12-31

    The multifamily case studies that are the subject of this report were conducted to provide a better understanding of the approach taken by program operators in weatherizing large buildings. Because of significant variations in building construction and energy systems across the country, five states were selected based on their high level of multifamily weatherization. This report summarizes findings from case studies conducted by multifamily weatherization operations in five cities. The case studies were conducted between January and November 1994. Each of the case studies involved extensive interviews with the staff of weatherization subgrantees conducting multifamily weatherization, the inspection of 4 to 12 buildings weatherized between 1991 and 1993, and the analysis of savings and costs. The case studies focused on innovative techniques which appear to work well.

  3. Midwest Surrogate Species and Prairie Reconstruction Funding Final Report, FY 2016

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Final report on funding received from the Natural Resources Program Center to support surrogate species planning and implementation and the Prairie Reconstruction...

  4. Surrogate Models for Online Monitoring and Process Troubleshooting of NBR Emulsion Copolymerization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chandra Mouli R. Madhuranthakam

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Chemical processes with complex reaction mechanisms generally lead to dynamic models which, while beneficial for predicting and capturing the detailed process behavior, are not readily amenable for direct use in online applications related to process operation, optimisation, control, and troubleshooting. Surrogate models can help overcome this problem. In this research article, the first part focuses on obtaining surrogate models for emulsion copolymerization of nitrile butadiene rubber (NBR, which is usually produced in a train of continuous stirred tank reactors. The predictions and/or profiles for several performance characteristics such as conversion, number of polymer particles, copolymer composition, and weight-average molecular weight, obtained using surrogate models are compared with those obtained using the detailed mechanistic model. In the second part of this article, optimal flow profiles based on dynamic optimisation using the surrogate models are obtained for the production of NBR emulsions with the objective of minimising the off-specification product generated during grade transitions.

  5. An Efficient Constraint Boundary Sampling Method for Sequential RBDO Using Kriging Surrogate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jihoon; Jang, Junyong; Kim, Shinyu; Lee, Tae Hee [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Sugil; Kim, Hyung Woo; Hong, Sup [Korea Research Institute of Ships and Ocean Engineering, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-06-15

    Reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) requires a high computational cost owing to its reliability analysis. A surrogate model is introduced to reduce the computational cost in RBDO. The accuracy of the reliability depends on the accuracy of the surrogate model of constraint boundaries in the surrogated-model-based RBDO. In earlier researches, constraint boundary sampling (CBS) was proposed to approximate accurately the boundaries of constraints by locating sample points on the boundaries of constraints. However, because CBS uses sample points on all constraint boundaries, it creates superfluous sample points. In this paper, efficient constraint boundary sampling (ECBS) is proposed to enhance the efficiency of CBS. ECBS uses the statistical information of a kriging surrogate model to locate sample points on or near the RBDO solution. The efficiency of ECBS is verified by mathematical examples.

  6. Endospore surface properties of commonly used Bacillus anthracis surrogates vary in aqueous solution

    Science.gov (United States)

    The hydrophobic character and electrophoretic mobility of microorganisms are vital aspects of understanding their interactions with the environment. These properties are fundamental in fate-and-transport, physiological, and virulence studies, and thus integral in surrogate select...

  7. Trimethylsilylethynyl ketones as surrogates for ethynyl ketones in the double Michael reaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holeman, Derrick S; Rasne, Ravindra M; Grossman, Robert B

    2002-05-01

    Trimethylsilylethynyl ketones can be desilylated in the presence of a tethered carbon diacid and induced to undergo a double Michael reaction in situ. The trimethylsilylethynyl ketones can serve as surrogates of ethynyl ketones that are difficult to prepare or isolate.

  8. Significance of Including a Surrogate Arousal for Sleep Apnea-Hypopnea Syndrome Diagnosis by Respiratory Polygraphy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masa, Juan F.; Corral, Jaime; Gomez de Terreros, Javier; Duran-Cantolla, Joaquin; Cabello, Marta; Hernández-Blasco, Luis; Monasterio, Carmen; Alonso, Alberto; Chiner, Eusebi; Aizpuru, Felipe; Zamorano, Jose; Cano, Ricardo; Montserrat, Jose M.; Garcia-Ledesma, Estefania; Pereira, Ricardo; Cancelo, Laura; Martinez, Angeles; Sacristan, Lirios; Salord, Neus; Carrera, Miguel; Sancho-Chust, José N.; Embid, Cristina

    2013-01-01

    Rationale: Respiratory polygraphy is an accepted alternative to polysomnography (PSG) for sleep apnea/hypopnea syndrome (SAHS) diagnosis, although it underestimates the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) because respiratory polygraphy cannot identify arousals. Objectives: We performed a multicentric, randomized, blinded crossover study to determine the agreement between home respiratory polygraphy (HRP) and PSG, and between simultaneous respiratory polygraphy (respiratory polygraphy with PSG) (SimultRP) and PSG by means of 2 AHI scoring protocols with or without hyperventilation following flow reduction considered as a surrogate arousal. Methods: We included suspected SAHS patients from 8 hospitals. They were assigned to home and hospital protocols at random. We determined the agreement between respiratory polygraphy AHI and PSG AHI scorings using Bland and Altman plots and diagnostic agreement using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The agreement in therapeutic decisions (continuous positive airway pressure treatment or not) between HRP and PSG scorings was done with likelihood ratios and post-test probability calculations. Results: Of 366 randomized patients, 342 completed the protocol. AHI from HRP scorings (with and without surrogate arousal) had similar agreement with PSG. AHI from SimultRP with surrogate arousal scoring had better agreement with PSG than AHI from SimultRP without surrogate arousal. HRP with surrogate arousal scoring had slightly worse ROC curves than HRP without surrogate arousal, and the opposite was true for SimultRP scorings. HRP with surrogate arousal showed slightly better agreement with PSG in therapeutic decisions than for HRP without surrogate arousal. Conclusion: Incorporating a surrogate arousal measure into HRP did not substantially increase its agreement with PSG when compared with the usual procedure (HRP without surrogate arousal). Citation: Masa JF; Corral J; Gomez de Terreros J; Duran-Cantolla J; Cabello M; Hern

  9. Space Weather and Real-Time Monitoring

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    Recent advance of information and communications technology enables to collect a large amount of ground-based and space-based observation data in real-time. The real-time data realize nowcast of space weather. This paper reports a history of space weather by the International Space Environment Service (ISES) in association with the International Geophysical Year (IGY) and importance of real-time monitoring in space weather.

  10. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks

    OpenAIRE

    McMichael, Anthony J.

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental c...

  11. Space Weather and Real-Time Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Watari

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent advance of information and communications technology enables to collect a large amount of ground-based and space-based observation data in real-time. The real-time data realize nowcast of space weather. This paper reports a history of space weather by the International Space Environment Service (ISES in association with the International Geophysical Year (IGY and importance of real-time monitoring in space weather.

  12. Using multiscale spatial models to assess potential surrogate habitat for an imperiled reptile.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer M Fill

    Full Text Available In evaluating conservation and management options for species, practitioners might consider surrogate habitats at multiple scales when estimating available habitat or modeling species' potential distributions based on suitable habitats, especially when native environments are rare. Species' dependence on surrogates likely increases as optimal habitat is degraded and lost due to anthropogenic landscape change, and thus surrogate habitats may be vital for an imperiled species' survival in highly modified landscapes. We used spatial habitat models to examine a potential surrogate habitat for an imperiled ambush predator (eastern diamondback rattlesnake, Crotalus adamanteus; EDB at two scales. The EDB is an apex predator indigenous to imperiled longleaf pine ecosystems (Pinus palustris of the southeastern United States. Loss of native open-canopy pine savannas and woodlands has been suggested as the principal cause of the species' extensive decline. We examined EDB habitat selection in the Coastal Plain tidewater region to evaluate the role of marsh as a potential surrogate habitat and to further quantify the species' habitat requirements at two scales: home range (HR and within the home range (WHR. We studied EDBs using radiotelemetry and employed an information-theoretic approach and logistic regression to model habitat selection as use vs.We failed to detect a positive association with marsh as a surrogate habitat at the HR scale; rather, EDBs exhibited significantly negative associations with all landscape patches except pine savanna. Within home range selection was characterized by a negative association with forest and a positive association with ground cover, which suggests that EDBs may use surrogate habitats of similar structure, including marsh, within their home ranges. While our HR analysis did not support tidal marsh as a surrogate habitat, marsh may still provide resources for EDBs at smaller scales.

  13. Surrogate end points in women's health research: science, protoscience, and pseudoscience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimes, David A; Schulz, Kenneth F; Raymond, Elizabeth G

    2010-04-01

    A surrogate end point (e.g., a laboratory test or image) serves as a proxy for a clinical end point of importance (e.g., fracture, thrombosis, or death). Adoption and use of surrogate end points lacking validation, especially in cardiovascular medicine, have caused thousands of patients' deaths, a serious violation of the ethical principle of beneficence. Copyright 2010 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Desorption of a methamphetamine surrogate from wallboard under remediation conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppendieck, Dustin; Morrison, Glenn; Corsi, Richard

    2015-04-01

    Thousands of homes in the United States are found to be contaminated with methamphetamine each year. Buildings used to produce illicit methamphetamine are typically remediated by removing soft furnishings and stained materials, cleaning and sometimes encapsulating surfaces using paint. Methamphetamine that has penetrated into paint films, wood and other permanent materials can be slowly released back into the building air over time, exposing future occupants and re-contaminating furnishings. The objective of this study was to determine the efficacy of two wallboard remediation techniques for homes contaminated with methamphetamine: 1) enhancing desorption by elevating temperature and relative humidity while ventilating the interior space, and 2) painting over affected wallboard to seal the methamphetamine in place. The emission of a methamphetamine surrogate, N-isopropylbenzylamine (NIBA), from pre-dosed wallboard chambers over 20 days at 32 °C and two values of relative humidity were studied. Emission rates from wallboard after 15 days at 32 °C ranged from 35 to 1400 μg h-1 m-2. Less than 22% of the NIBA was removed from the chambers over three weeks. Results indicate that elevating temperatures during remediation and latex painting of impacted wallboard will not significantly reduce freebase methamphetamine emissions from wallboard. Raising the relative humidity from 27% to 49% increased the emission rates by a factor of 1.4. A steady-state model of a typical home using the emission rates from this study and typical residential building parameters and conditions shows that adult inhalation reference doses for methamphetamine will be reached when approximately 1 g of methamphetamine is present in the wallboard of a house.

  15. Survival of norovirus surrogate on various food-contact surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, An-Na; Park, Shin Young; Bae, San-Cheong; Oh, Mi-Hwa; Ha, Sang-Do

    2014-09-01

    Norovirus (NoV) is an environmental threat to humans, which spreads easily from one infected person to another, causing foodborne and waterborne diseases. Therefore, precautions against NoV infection are important in the preparation of food. The aim of this study was to investigate the survival of murine norovirus (MNV), as a NoV surrogate, on six different food-contact surfaces: ceramic, wood, rubber, glass, stainless steel, and plastic. We inoculated 10(5) PFU of MNV onto the six different surface coupons that were then kept at room temperature for 28 days. On the food-contact surfaces, the greatest reduction in MNV was 2.28 log10 PFU/coupon, observed on stainless steel, while the lowest MNV reduction was 1.29 log10 PFU/coupon, observed on wood. The rank order of MNV reduction, from highest to lowest, was stainless steel, plastic, rubber, glass, ceramic, and wood. The values of d R (time required to reduce the virus by 90%) on survival plots of MNV determined by a modified Weibull model were 277.60 h (R(2) = 0.99) on ceramic, 492.59 h (R(2) = 0.98) on wood, 173.56 h on rubber (R(2) = 0.98), 97.18 h (R(2) = 0.94) on glass, 91.76 h (R(2) = 0.97) on stainless steel, and 137.74 h (R(2) = 0.97) on plastic. The infectivity of MNV on all food-contact surfaces remained after 28 days. These results show that MNV persists in an infective state on various food-contact surfaces for long periods. This study may provide valuable information for the control of NoV on various food-contact surfaces, in order to prevent foodborne disease.

  16. Composite Sampling Approaches for Bacillus anthracis Surrogate Extracted from Soil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian France

    Full Text Available Any release of anthrax spores in the U.S. would require action to decontaminate the site and restore its use and operations as rapidly as possible. The remediation activity would require environmental sampling, both initially to determine the extent of contamination (hazard mapping and post-decon to determine that the site is free of contamination (clearance sampling. Whether the spore contamination is within a building or outdoors, collecting and analyzing what could be thousands of samples can become the factor that limits the pace of restoring operations. To address this sampling and analysis bottleneck and decrease the time needed to recover from an anthrax contamination event, this study investigates the use of composite sampling. Pooling or compositing of samples is an established technique to reduce the number of analyses required, and its use for anthrax spore sampling has recently been investigated. However, use of composite sampling in an anthrax spore remediation event will require well-documented and accepted methods. In particular, previous composite sampling studies have focused on sampling from hard surfaces; data on soil sampling are required to extend the procedure to outdoor use. Further, we must consider whether combining liquid samples, thus increasing the volume, lowers the sensitivity of detection and produces false negatives. In this study, methods to composite bacterial spore samples from soil are demonstrated. B. subtilis spore suspensions were used as a surrogate for anthrax spores. Two soils (Arizona Test Dust and sterilized potting soil were contaminated and spore recovery with composites was shown to match individual sample performance. Results show that dilution can be overcome by concentrating bacterial spores using standard filtration methods. This study shows that composite sampling can be a viable method of pooling samples to reduce the number of analysis that must be performed during anthrax spore remediation.

  17. Composite Sampling Approaches for Bacillus anthracis Surrogate Extracted from Soil

    Science.gov (United States)

    France, Brian; Bell, William; Chang, Emily; Scholten, Trudy

    2015-01-01

    Any release of anthrax spores in the U.S. would require action to decontaminate the site and restore its use and operations as rapidly as possible. The remediation activity would require environmental sampling, both initially to determine the extent of contamination (hazard mapping) and post-decon to determine that the site is free of contamination (clearance sampling). Whether the spore contamination is within a building or outdoors, collecting and analyzing what could be thousands of samples can become the factor that limits the pace of restoring operations. To address this sampling and analysis bottleneck and decrease the time needed to recover from an anthrax contamination event, this study investigates the use of composite sampling. Pooling or compositing of samples is an established technique to reduce the number of analyses required, and its use for anthrax spore sampling has recently been investigated. However, use of composite sampling in an anthrax spore remediation event will require well-documented and accepted methods. In particular, previous composite sampling studies have focused on sampling from hard surfaces; data on soil sampling are required to extend the procedure to outdoor use. Further, we must consider whether combining liquid samples, thus increasing the volume, lowers the sensitivity of detection and produces false negatives. In this study, methods to composite bacterial spore samples from soil are demonstrated. B. subtilis spore suspensions were used as a surrogate for anthrax spores. Two soils (Arizona Test Dust and sterilized potting soil) were contaminated and spore recovery with composites was shown to match individual sample performance. Results show that dilution can be overcome by concentrating bacterial spores using standard filtration methods. This study shows that composite sampling can be a viable method of pooling samples to reduce the number of analysis that must be performed during anthrax spore remediation. PMID:26714315

  18. Composite Sampling Approaches for Bacillus anthracis Surrogate Extracted from Soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    France, Brian; Bell, William; Chang, Emily; Scholten, Trudy

    2015-01-01

    Any release of anthrax spores in the U.S. would require action to decontaminate the site and restore its use and operations as rapidly as possible. The remediation activity would require environmental sampling, both initially to determine the extent of contamination (hazard mapping) and post-decon to determine that the site is free of contamination (clearance sampling). Whether the spore contamination is within a building or outdoors, collecting and analyzing what could be thousands of samples can become the factor that limits the pace of restoring operations. To address this sampling and analysis bottleneck and decrease the time needed to recover from an anthrax contamination event, this study investigates the use of composite sampling. Pooling or compositing of samples is an established technique to reduce the number of analyses required, and its use for anthrax spore sampling has recently been investigated. However, use of composite sampling in an anthrax spore remediation event will require well-documented and accepted methods. In particular, previous composite sampling studies have focused on sampling from hard surfaces; data on soil sampling are required to extend the procedure to outdoor use. Further, we must consider whether combining liquid samples, thus increasing the volume, lowers the sensitivity of detection and produces false negatives. In this study, methods to composite bacterial spore samples from soil are demonstrated. B. subtilis spore suspensions were used as a surrogate for anthrax spores. Two soils (Arizona Test Dust and sterilized potting soil) were contaminated and spore recovery with composites was shown to match individual sample performance. Results show that dilution can be overcome by concentrating bacterial spores using standard filtration methods. This study shows that composite sampling can be a viable method of pooling samples to reduce the number of analysis that must be performed during anthrax spore remediation.

  19. Interactions between Human Norovirus Surrogates and Acanthamoeba spp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsueh, Tun-Yun; Gibson, Kristen E

    2015-06-15

    Human noroviruses (HuNoVs) are the most common cause of food-borne disease outbreaks, as well as virus-related waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States. Here, we hypothesize that common free-living amoebae (FLA)-ubiquitous in the environment, known to interact with pathogens, and frequently isolated from water and fresh produce-could potentially act as reservoirs of HuNoV and facilitate the environmental transmission of HuNoVs. To investigate FLA as reservoirs for HuNoV, the interactions between two Acanthamoeba species, A. castellanii and A. polyphaga, as well as two HuNoV surrogates, murine norovirus type 1 (MNV-1) and feline calicivirus (FCV), were evaluated. The results showed that after 1 h of amoeba-virus incubation at 25°C, 490 and 337 PFU of MNV-1/ml were recovered from A. castellanii and A. polyphaga, respectively, while only few or no FCVs were detected. In addition, prolonged interaction of MNV-1 with amoebae was investigated for a period of 8 days, and MNV-1 was demonstrated to remain stable at around 200 PFU/ml from day 2 to day 8 after virus inoculation in A. castellanii. Moreover, after a complete amoeba life cycle (i.e., encystment and excystment), infectious viruses could still be detected. To determine the location of virus associated with amoebae, immunofluorescence experiments were performed and showed MNV-1 transitioning from the amoeba surface to inside the amoeba over a 24-h period. These results are significant to the understanding of how HuNoVs may interact with other microorganisms in the environment in order to aid in its persistence and survival, as well as potential transmission in water and to vulnerable food products such as fresh produce.

  20. Design, development, and analysis of a surrogate for pulmonary injury prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danelson, Kerry A; Gayzik, F Scott; Stern, Amber Rath; Hoth, J Jason; Stitzel, Joel D

    2011-10-01

    Current anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs) measure chest acceleration and deflection to assess risk of injury to the thorax. This study presents a lung surrogate prototype designed to expand the injury assessment capabilities of ATDs to include a risk measure for pulmonary contusion (PC). The surrogate augments these existing measures by providing pressure data specific to the lung and its lobes. The prototype was created from a rendering of a 50th percentile male lung inflated to normal inspiration, obtained from clinical CT data. Surrogate size, lobe volume, and airway cross sections were selected to match the morphology of the lung. Elastomeric urethane was molded via rapid prototyping to create a functional prototype. Pressure sensors in each of the five terminal airways independently monitored pressure traces in the lobes during impacts to the surrogate. Software was created to analyze the surrogate impact pressure data, determine the lobe with the greatest pressure rise for a particular impact, and estimate the initial speed of surface deformation. Calibration testing indicates an approximately linear relationship between peak lobe pressure and surface impact speed. No type I or II errors were demonstrated during lobe detection testing. During repeatability testing, the standard deviation was between 2 and 4% of the mean peak pressure. Ongoing research will focus on correlating surrogate data, pressure pulses, or surface deformation, to risk functions for PC.

  1. Adaptive surrogate model based multi-objective transfer trajectory optimization between different libration points

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Haijun; Wang, Wei

    2016-10-01

    An adaptive surrogate model-based multi-objective optimization strategy that combines the benefits of invariant manifolds and low-thrust control toward developing a low-computational-cost transfer trajectory between libration orbits around the L1 and L2 libration points in the Sun-Earth system has been proposed in this paper. A new structure for a multi-objective transfer trajectory optimization model that divides the transfer trajectory into several segments and gives the dominations for invariant manifolds and low-thrust control in different segments has been established. To reduce the computational cost of multi-objective transfer trajectory optimization, a mixed sampling strategy-based adaptive surrogate model has been proposed. Numerical simulations show that the results obtained from the adaptive surrogate-based multi-objective optimization are in agreement with the results obtained using direct multi-objective optimization methods, and the computational workload of the adaptive surrogate-based multi-objective optimization is only approximately 10% of that of direct multi-objective optimization. Furthermore, the generating efficiency of the Pareto points of the adaptive surrogate-based multi-objective optimization is approximately 8 times that of the direct multi-objective optimization. Therefore, the proposed adaptive surrogate-based multi-objective optimization provides obvious advantages over direct multi-objective optimization methods.

  2. Modeling of Heating and Evaporation of FACE I Gasoline Fuel and its Surrogates

    KAUST Repository

    Elwardani, Ahmed Elsaid

    2016-04-05

    The US Department of Energy has formulated different gasoline fuels called \\'\\'Fuels for Advanced Combustion Engines (FACE)\\'\\' to standardize their compositions. FACE I is a low octane number gasoline fuel with research octane number (RON) of approximately 70. The detailed hydrocarbon analysis (DHA) of FACE I shows that it contains 33 components. This large number of components cannot be handled in fuel spray simulation where thousands of droplets are directly injected in combustion chamber. These droplets are to be heated, broken-up, collided and evaporated simultaneously. Heating and evaporation of single droplet FACE I fuel was investigated. The heating and evaporation model accounts for the effects of finite thermal conductivity, finite liquid diffusivity and recirculation inside the droplet, referred to as the effective thermal conductivity/effective diffusivity (ETC/ED) model. The temporal variations of the liquid mass fractions of the droplet components were used to characterize the evaporation process. Components with similar evaporation characteristics were merged together. A representative component was initially chosen based on the highest initial mass fraction. Three 6 components surrogates, Surrogate 1-3, that match evaporation characteristics of FACE I have been formulated without keeping same mass fractions of different hydrocarbon types. Another two surrogates (Surrogate 4 and 5) were considered keeping same hydrocarbon type concentrations. A distillation based surrogate that matches measured distillation profile was proposed. The calculated molar mass, hydrogen-to-carbon (H/C) ratio and RON of Surrogate 4 and distillation based one are close to those of FACE I.

  3. Band-phase-randomized Surrogates to assess nonlinearity in non-stationary time series

    CERN Document Server

    Guarin, Diego; Orozco, Alvaro

    2011-01-01

    Testing for nonlinearity is one of the most important preprocessing steps in nonlinear time series analysis. Typically, this is done by means of the linear surrogate data methods. But it is a known fact that the validity of the results heavily depends on the stationarity of the time series. Since most physiological signals are non-stationary, it is easy to falsely detect nonlinearity using the linear surrogate data methods. In this document, we propose a methodology to extend the procedure for generating constrained surrogate time series in order to assess nonlinearity in non-stationary data. The method is based on the band-phase-randomized surrogates, which consists (contrary to the linear surrogate data methods) in randomizing only a portion of the Fourier phases in the high frequency band. Analysis of simulated time series showed that in comparison to the linear surrogate data method, our method is able to discriminate between linear stationarity, linear non-stationary and nonlinear time series. When apply...

  4. Traffic Control Under Complex Weather Conditions in Suining Airport

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吕维峰

    2014-01-01

    Complex weather conditions is meaning thunderstorm freezing turbulence wind-shear low visibility weather affect the flight safety. When confronted with complex weather conditions,the controllers should know the weather condition and trend weather,and notify the aircraft under your control zone.The controllers provide the required services to the pilots,help the pilots to avoid the complex weather.In this paper, through different complex weathers under different control command,get the different methods of control.

  5. The impact of extreme weather conditions on the life of settlers in the Central Russia in X - XVI centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, Irina; Nizovtsev, Viacheslav; Erman, Natalia

    2017-04-01

    A special place in the reconstruction of climate dynamics takes an analysis of extraordinary meteorological phenomena. These extreme weather events in the first place impact the functioning of, the rhythm and dynamics of the landscapes and determine not only the features of economy, but also certain aspects of historical development. In the analysis of primary chronicles and published data, along with the direct climatic characteristics (hot, warm, cold, wet, dry, etc.) a lot of attention was paid to abnormal (extreme) natural phenomena and indirect indications of climate variability (floods, crop failures, hunger years, epidemics, etc.). As a result, tables were compiled reflecting climatic basic characteristics and extremes for each year since 900 BC. X-XI centuries was a period of minor climatic optimum - the climate was warmer and drier than the modern one. In addition to higher temperatures (up to 1-3C above than mordern), during this period there were no severe winters. A small amount of summer rainfall has led to a reduction in the number of small water reservoirs and flooding rivers. This is evidenced by Slavic settlements on floodplains of a number of rivers in the Moscow region. It is in this favorable climatic time the way "from the Vikings to the Greeks" was open. Catastrophic natural events had a minimum repeatability. For example, during the X century the Russian chronicles mentioned 41 extreme event, but for the XIII century - 102. Most of the villages and towns were located on the low floodplain terraces of rivers. The main farmland was concentrated there as well. In the "period of contrasts" (XIII - XIV centuries) there was an increase of intra-seasonal climate variability, humidity and widespread reduction in summer temperatures by 1-2C. The number of extreme weather events increased: cold prolonged winters, long rains in summers, cold weather returns in the early summer, early frosts in late summer - early autumn. Such conditions often

  6. Weather Satellite Enterprise Information Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamilkowski, M. L.; Grant, K. D.; Miller, S. W.; Cochran, S.

    2015-12-01

    NOAA & NASA are acquiring the next-generation civilian operational weather satellite: Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS). Contributing the afternoon orbit & ground system (GS) to replace current NOAA POES Satellites, its sensors will collect meteorological, oceanographic & climatological data. The JPSS Common Ground System (CGS), consisting of C3 and IDP segments, is developed by Raytheon. It now flies the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite, transferring data between ground facilities, processing them into environmental products for NOAA weather centers, and expanding to support JPSS-1 in 2017. As a multi-mission system, CGS provides combinations of C3, data processing, and product delivery for numerous NASA, NOAA, DoD and international missions.The CGS provides a wide range of support to a number of missions: Command and control and mission management for the S-NPP mission today, expanding this support to the JPSS-1 satellite mission in 2017 Data acquisition for S-NPP, the JAXA's Global Change Observation Mission - Water (GCOM-W1), POES, and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and Coriolis/WindSat for the DoD Data routing over a global fiber network for S-NPP, JPSS-1, GCOM-W1, POES, DMSP, Coriolis/WindSat, NASA EOS missions, MetOp for EUMETSAT and the National Science Foundation Environmental data processing and distribution for S-NPP, GCOM-W1 and JPSS-1 The CGS plays a key role in facilitating the movement and value-added enhancement of data all the way from satellite-based sensor data to delivery to the consumers who generate forecasts and produce watches and warnings. This presentation will discuss the information flow from sensors, through data routing and processing, and finally to product delivery. It will highlight how advances in architecture developed through lessons learned from S-NPP and implemented for JPSS-1 will increase data availability and reduce latency for end user applications.

  7. Weather pattern climatology of the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barchet, W.R.; Davis, W.E.

    1984-01-01

    In this study the geographic domain covered the 48 conterminous states of the United States. The daily synoptic weather pattern was classified into nine types for the 10-year period January 1, 1969 to December 31, 1978. Weather pattern types were defined relative to the classical polar front model of a mid-latitude cyclonic storm system and its associated air masses. Guidelines for classifying weather patterns on an operational basis were developed. These were applied to 3652 daily surface weather maps to produce a time series of weather pattern type at 120 grid points of a 160 point, 3/sup 0/ latitude by 4/sup 0/ longitude array over the United States. Statistics on the frequency of occurrence, persistence and alternation of weather patterns were calculated for each grid point. Summary statistics for the entire grid and for six regions were also presented. Frequency of occurrence and persistence were found to depend on the size and speed of movement of the weather pattern. Large, slow moving air masses had higher frequency of occurrence and longer persistence than small (fronts) or rapidly moving (or changing) features (fronts, storm centers). Some types showed distinct regional preferences. The subtropical maritime high occurred mainly in the south central and southeast. An indeterminate weather pattern type accounted for those weather patterns that did not fit the polar front model or were too disorganized to be classified. The intermountain thermal low of the desert southwest was one such feature that dominated both frequency of occurrence and persistence in this region. Alternation from one weather pattern to another followed the polar front model of a moving cyclonic storm. The tendency for anticyclonic weather patterns to become disorganized as they weakened was seen in the high percentage of these patterns that changed to an indeterminate pattern as they aged.

  8. The Application of Synoptic Weather Forecasting Rules to Selected Weather Situations in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Fred E.

    The document describes the use of weather maps and data in teaching introductory college courses in synoptic meteorology. Students examine weather changes at three-hour intervals from data obtained from the "Monthly Summary of Local Climatological Data." Weather variables in the local summary include sky cover, air temperature, dew point, relative…

  9. Hedging Weather Risk for Corn Production in Northeastern China: The Efficiency of Weather-indexed Insurance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sun, Baojing; Guo, Changhao; Kooten, van G.C.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose – The paper analyzes the hedging efficiency of weather-indexed insurance for corn production in Northeast of China. The purpose of this paper is to identify the potential weather variables that impact corn yields and to analyze the efficiency of weather-indexed insurance under varying

  10. Coastal aquifer management under parameter uncertainty: Ensemble surrogate modeling based simulation-optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janardhanan, S.; Datta, B.

    2011-12-01

    Surrogate models are widely used to develop computationally efficient simulation-optimization models to solve complex groundwater management problems. Artificial intelligence based models are most often used for this purpose where they are trained using predictor-predictand data obtained from a numerical simulation model. Most often this is implemented with the assumption that the parameters and boundary conditions used in the numerical simulation model are perfectly known. However, in most practical situations these values are uncertain. Under these circumstances the application of such approximation surrogates becomes limited. In our study we develop a surrogate model based coupled simulation optimization methodology for determining optimal pumping strategies for coastal aquifers considering parameter uncertainty. An ensemble surrogate modeling approach is used along with multiple realization optimization. The methodology is used to solve a multi-objective coastal aquifer management problem considering two conflicting objectives. Hydraulic conductivity and the aquifer recharge are considered as uncertain values. Three dimensional coupled flow and transport simulation model FEMWATER is used to simulate the aquifer responses for a number of scenarios corresponding to Latin hypercube samples of pumping and uncertain parameters to generate input-output patterns for training the surrogate models. Non-parametric bootstrap sampling of this original data set is used to generate multiple data sets which belong to different regions in the multi-dimensional decision and parameter space. These data sets are used to train and test multiple surrogate models based on genetic programming. The ensemble of surrogate models is then linked to a multi-objective genetic algorithm to solve the pumping optimization problem. Two conflicting objectives, viz, maximizing total pumping from beneficial wells and minimizing the total pumping from barrier wells for hydraulic control of

  11. Biomedically assisted reproduction and child birth: Surrogate motherhood in comparative European law and Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovaček-Stanić Gordana

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Surrogate motherhood is an arrangement in which a woman agrees to carry and deliver a child for another couple who ordered the pregnancy. This procedure is applied today in Great Britain, Holland (although without legal regulations, Israel, Greece, Ukraine, Armenia, Georgia, the USA and Australia, and it is forbidden in France, Austria, Spain, Germany, Switzerland and Slovenia. There are two types of surrogacy, one when the woman gives birth to a child who is genetically her own ("partial", genetic surrogacy, and the other where the surrogate mother only carries and gives birth to a child, whereby the child is genetically from the couple that wanted the child, or the fertilized egg is from a third woman (donor, or the embryo was donated ("full", "total", gestational surrogacy. In these cases two women take part in conception and birth of the child while in the last case there is a third woman who will raise the child. Biologically observed, the woman whose egg has been fertilized may be called the genetic mother, while the woman who carried the pregnancy and gave birth to the child - the gestational carrier. Taking into consideration that the Preliminary Draft of the Serbian Civil Law anticipates the introduction of surrogate motherhood into domestic law, we believe restrictive solutions should first be taken into consideration. This would mean that only full surrogating should be allowed, namely the egg should be from the woman who wants the child and not the surrogate mother. In domestic conditions, genetic surrogation should not be allowed as it leads to confusion in family relations, and kinships still have an important social and legal significance in our country. The surrogate mother should be a woman who has already given birth, because in that way any possible shocks which might arise after birth when the woman who has to handover the child to the intended couple would be avoided. The next condition would be that persons involved in this

  12. Medium-range fire weather forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.O. Roads; K. Ueyoshi; S.C. Chen; J. Alpert; F. Fujioka

    1991-01-01

    The forecast skill of theNational Meteorological Center's medium range forecast (MRF) numerical forecasts of fire weather variables is assessed for the period June 1,1988 to May 31,1990. Near-surface virtual temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and a derived fire weather index (FWI) are forecast well by the MRF model. However, forecast relative humidity has...

  13. Uncertainty analysis of weather controlled systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keesman, K.J.; Doeswijk, T.G.

    2010-01-01

    The indoor climate of many storage facilities for agricultural produce is controlled by mixing ambient air with the air flow through the store room. Hence, the indoor climate is affected by the ambient weather conditions. Given hourly fluctuating energy tariffs, weather forecasts over some days are

  14. Uncertainty analysis of weather controlled systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keesman, K.J.; Doeswijk, T.G.

    2010-01-01

    The indoor climate of many storage facilities for agricultural produce is controlled by mixing ambient air with the air flow through the store room. Hence, the indoor climate is affected by the ambient weather conditions. Given hourly fluctuating energy tariffs, weather forecasts over some days are

  15. Adaptive Weather Forecasting using Local Meteorological Information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.; Keesman, K.J.

    2005-01-01

    In general, meteorological parameters such as temperature, rain and global radiation are important for agricultural systems. Anticipating on future conditions is most often needed in these systems. Weather forecasts then become of substantial importance. As weather forecasts are subject to uncertain

  16. The Early Years: About the Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashbrook, Peggy

    2015-01-01

    Observing and documenting elements of weather teach children about using tools and their senses to learn about the environment. This column discusses resources and science topics related to students in grades preK to 2. This month's issue describes an activity where students indirectly document local weather by counting outdoor clothing types worn…

  17. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

  18. AWE: Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spirkovska, Lilly; Lodha, Suresh K.; Norvig, Peter (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Weather is one of the major causes of aviation accidents. General aviation (GA) flights account for 92% of all the aviation accidents, In spite of all the official and unofficial sources of weather visualization tools available to pilots, there is an urgent need for visualizing several weather related data tailored for general aviation pilots. Our system, Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment AWE), presents graphical displays of meteorological observations, terminal area forecasts, and winds aloft forecasts onto a cartographic grid specific to the pilot's area of interest. Decisions regarding the graphical display and design are made based on careful consideration of user needs. Integral visual display of these elements of weather reports is designed for the use of GA pilots as a weather briefing and route selection tool. AWE provides linking of the weather information to the flight's path and schedule. The pilot can interact with the system to obtain aviation-specific weather for the entire area or for his specific route to explore what-if scenarios and make "go/no-go" decisions. The system, as evaluated by some pilots at NASA Ames Research Center, was found to be useful.

  19. Learn about Earth Science: Weather. [CD-ROM].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000

    This CD-ROM, designed for students in grades K-2, explores the world of weather. Students investigate weather to learn about climate and the seasons, how animals adapt to weather changes, how clouds tell us about conditions, and how weather plays a part in our everyday lives. The weather calendar lets students record and write about conditions…

  20. Myotonometry as a Surrogate Measure of Muscle Strength

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ang, B. S.; Feeback, D. L.; Leonard, C. T.; Sykes, J.; Kruger, E.; Clarke, M. S. F.

    2007-01-01

    be significantly (p less than 0.01) correlated with contemporaneous myotonometer measurements made on the rectis femoris muscle in a total of 16 healthy subjects (8 males, 8 females). Further-more, this device has been operationally tested during parabolic flight demonstrating its suitability for use in a microgravity environment. Our data indicates that the Myotonometer is a viable surrogate measure of muscle contractile state/tone and of muscle strength/force production. Additional studies are required to assess the suitability of this technique for assessing these measures in de-conditioned subjects such as crew-members.

  1. Is Diaphragm Motion a Good Surrogate for Liver Tumor Motion?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Juan [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); School of Information Science and Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong (China); Cai, Jing [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Wang, Hongjun [School of Information Science and Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong (China); Chang, Zheng; Czito, Brian G. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Bashir, Mustafa R. [Department of Radiology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Palta, Manisha [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Yin, Fang-Fang, E-mail: fangfang.yin@duke.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States)

    2014-11-15

    Purpose: To evaluate the relationship between liver tumor motion and diaphragm motion. Methods and Materials: Fourteen patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (10 of 14) or liver metastases (4 of 14) undergoing radiation therapy were included in this study. All patients underwent single-slice cine–magnetic resonance imaging simulations across the center of the tumor in 3 orthogonal planes. Tumor and diaphragm motion trajectories in the superior–inferior (SI), anterior–posterior (AP), and medial–lateral (ML) directions were obtained using an in-house-developed normalized cross-correlation–based tracking technique. Agreement between the tumor and diaphragm motion was assessed by calculating phase difference percentage, intraclass correlation coefficient, and Bland-Altman analysis (Diff). The distance between the tumor and tracked diaphragm area was analyzed to understand its impact on the correlation between the 2 motions. Results: Of all patients, the mean (±standard deviation) phase difference percentage values were 7.1% ± 1.1%, 4.5% ± 0.5%, and 17.5% ± 4.5% in the SI, AP, and ML directions, respectively. The mean intraclass correlation coefficient values were 0.98 ± 0.02, 0.97 ± 0.02, and 0.08 ± 0.06 in the SI, AP, and ML directions, respectively. The mean Diff values were 2.8 ± 1.4 mm, 2.4 ± 1.1 mm, and 2.2 ± 0.5 mm in the SI, AP, and ML directions, respectively. Tumor and diaphragm motions had high concordance when the distance between the tumor and tracked diaphragm area was small. Conclusions: This study showed that liver tumor motion had good correlation with diaphragm motion in the SI and AP directions, indicating diaphragm motion in the SI and AP directions could potentially be used as a reliable surrogate for liver tumor motion.

  2. Pushing the Envelope of Extreme Space Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesnell, W. D.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme Space Weather events are large solar flares or geomagnetic storms, which can cost billions of dollars to recover from. We have few examples of such events; the Carrington Event (the solar superstorm) is one of the few that had superlatives in three categories: size of solar flare, drop in Dst, and amplitude of aa. Kepler observations show that stars similar to the Sun can have flares releasing millions of times more energy than an X-class flare. These flares and the accompanying coronal mass ejections could strongly affect the atmosphere surrounding a planet. What level of solar activity would be necessary to strongly affect the atmosphere of the Earth? Can we map out the envelope of space weather along the evolution of the Sun? What would space weather look like if the Sun stopped producing a magnetic field? To what extreme should Space Weather go? These are the extremes of Space Weather explored in this talk.

  3. Space weather: European Space Agency perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, E. J.; Hilgers, A.

    Spacecraft and payloads have become steadily more sophisticated and therefore more susceptible to space weather effects. ESA has long been active in applying models and tools to the problems associated with such effects on its spacecraft. In parallel, ESA and European agencies have built a highly successful solar-terrestrial physics capability. ESA is now investigating the marriage of these technological and scientific capabilities to address perceived user needs for space weather products and services. Two major ESA-sponsored studies are laying the groundwork for a possible operational European space weather service. The wide-ranging activities of ESA in the Space Weather/Space Environment domain are summarized and recent important examples of space weather concerns given.

  4. A Development of a Human Cranial Bone Surrogate for Impact Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jack C Roberts

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In order to replicate the fracture behavior of the intact human skull under impact it becomes necessary to develop a material having the mechanical properties of cranial bone. The most important properties to replicate in a surrogate human skull were found to be the fracture toughness and tensile strength of the cranial tables as well as the bending strength of the 3-layer (inner table-diplöe-outer table architecture of the human skull. The materials selected to represent the surrogate cranial tables consisted of two different epoxy resins systems with random milled glass fiber to enhance the strength and stiffness and the materials to represent the surrogate diplöe consisted of three low density foams. Forty-one three-point bending fracture toughness tests were performed on nine material combinations. The materials that best represented the fracture toughness of cranial tables were then selected and formed into tensile samples and tested. These materials were then used with the two surrogate diplöe foam materials to create the three layer surrogate cranial bone samples for three point bending tests. Drop tower tests were performed on flat samples created from these materials and the fracture patterns were very similar to the linear fractures seen in pendulum impacts of intact human skulls. The surrogate cranial tables had the quasi-static fracture toughness and tensile strength of 2.5 MPa√m and 53 ± 4.9 MPa, respectively, while the same properties of human compact bone were 3.1 ± 1.8 MPa√m and 68 ± 18 MPa, respectively. The cranial surrogate had a quasi-static bending strength of 68 ± 5.7 MPa, while that of cranial bone was 82 ± 26 MPa. This material/design is currently being used to construct spherical shell samples for drop tower and ballistic tests.

  5. Observing Migration and Burial of Unexploded Ordnance in the Nearshore Environment with Instrumented Surrogates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruder, B. L.; Cristaudo, D.; Puleo, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    Prior to 1972, it was legal and common practice to unload unexploded ordnance (UXO) into the ocean. Only 60-100 miles off the US coast alone there are 72 dumping sites where it is estimated 31 million pounds of UXO lie. As recently as 2015, UXO have been found not only in the nearshore environment, but on populated beaches. Thus, understanding the migration and burial of these objects is not only of oceanographic interest, but a matter of public safety. The presented project evaluates the efficacy of instrumented UXO surrogates for observing munition migration and burial. Instrumented surrogates were exposed to near prototype scale wave conditions over a mobile bed at the Littoral Warfare Environment at Aberdeen Test Center, MD. Surrogates were deployed in the swash zone, inner and outer surf zones. Dependent on munition size, surrogates housed multiple suites of self-logging sensors. Sensor suites included different combinations of inertial motion units, ultra-wideband tracking tags, pressure transducers, shock recorders, and photocells. Preliminary results show sensor suites can resolve various types of surrogate movement. Pressure transducers accurately record ambient wave conditions as well as changes in mean depth due to surrogate migration. Inertial motion units resolve munition accelerations for rolling and translational motion. Inertial motion unit data is used to estimate trajectory as well when coupled with mean depth and bathymetric data. Photocells, which measure ambient light, resolve munition burial as well as serve as proxies for surrounding environmental conditions such as suspended sediment and water depth. The presented project will continue to utilize and couple surrogate sensor data to resolve munition movement and burial under different conditions. Knowledge of munition migration helps focus UXO detection and recovery, conserving US military and coastal resources.

  6. Primary Reference Fuels (PRFs) as Surrogates for Low Sensitivity Gasoline Fuels

    KAUST Repository

    Bhavani Shankar, Vijai Shankar

    2016-04-05

    Primary Reference Fuels (PRFs) - binary mixtures of n-heptane and iso-octane based on Research Octane Number (RON) - are popular gasoline surrogates for modeling combustion in spark ignition engines. The use of these two component surrogates to represent real gasoline fuels for simulations of HCCI/PCCI engines needs further consideration, as the mode of combustion is very different in these engines (i.e. the combustion process is mainly controlled by the reactivity of the fuel). This study presents an experimental evaluation of PRF surrogates for four real gasoline fuels termed FACE (Fuels for Advanced Combustion Engines) A, C, I, and J in a motored CFR (Cooperative Fuels Research) engine. This approach enables the surrogate mixtures to be evaluated purely from a chemical kinetic perspective. The gasoline fuels considered in this study have very low sensitivities, S (RON-MON), and also exhibit two-stage ignition behavior. The first stage heat release, which is termed Low Temperature Heat Release (LTHR), controls the combustion phasing in this operating mode. As a result, the performance of the PRF surrogates was evaluated by its ability to mimic the low temperature chemical reactivity of the real gasoline fuels. This was achieved by comparing the LTHR from the engine pressure histories. The PRF surrogates were able to consistently reproduce the amount of LTHR, closely match the phasing of LTHR, and the compression ratio for the start of hot ignition of the real gasoline fuels. This suggests that the octane quality of a surrogate fuel is a good indicator of the fuel’s reactivity across low (LTC), negative temperature coefficient (NTC), and high temperature chemical (HTC) reactivity regimes.

  7. Ovulation Statuses of Surrogate Gilts Are Associated with the Efficiency of Excellent Pig Cloning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanjun Huan

    Full Text Available Somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT is an assisted reproductive technique that can produce multiple copies of excellent livestock. However, low cloning efficiency limits the application of SCNT. In this study, we systematically investigated the major influencing factors related to the overall cloning efficiency in pigs. Here, 13620 cloned embryos derived from excellent pigs were transferred into 79 surrogate gilts, and 119 live cloned piglets were eventually generated. During cloning, group of cloned embryos derived from excellent Landrace or Large white pigs presented no significant differences of cleavage and blastocyst rates, blastocyst cell numbers, surrogate pregnancy and delivery rates, average numbers of piglets born and alive and cloning efficiencies, and group of 101-150, 151-200 or 201-250 cloned embryos transferred per surrogate also displayed a similar developmental efficiency. When estrus stage of surrogate gilts was compared, group of embryo transfer on Day 2 of estrus showed significantly higher pregnancy rate, delivery rate, average number of piglets born, average alive piglet number or cloning efficiency than group on Day 1, Day 3, Day 4 or Day 5, respectively (P<0.05. And, in comparison with the preovulation and postovulation groups, group of surrogate gilts during periovulation displayed a significantly higher overall cloning efficiency (P<0.05. Further investigation of surrogate estrus stage and ovulation status displayed that ovulation status was the real factor underlying estrus stage to determine the overall cloning efficiency. And more, follicle puncture for preovulation, not transfer position shallowed for preovulation or deepened for postovulation, significantly improved the average number of piglets alive and cloning efficiency (P<0.05. In conclusion, our results demonstrated that ovulation status of surrogate gilts was the fundamental factor determining the overall cloning efficiency of excellent pigs, and follicle

  8. Real-time characterization of partially observed epidemics using surrogate models.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Safta, Cosmin; Ray, Jaideep; Lefantzi, Sophia; Crary, David (Applied Research Associates, Arlington, VA); Sargsyan, Khachik; Cheng, Karen (Applied Research Associates, Arlington, VA)

    2011-09-01

    We present a statistical method, predicated on the use of surrogate models, for the 'real-time' characterization of partially observed epidemics. Observations consist of counts of symptomatic patients, diagnosed with the disease, that may be available in the early epoch of an ongoing outbreak. Characterization, in this context, refers to estimation of epidemiological parameters that can be used to provide short-term forecasts of the ongoing epidemic, as well as to provide gross information on the dynamics of the etiologic agent in the affected population e.g., the time-dependent infection rate. The characterization problem is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and epidemiological parameters are estimated as distributions using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates. In some cases, the inverse problem can be computationally expensive, primarily due to the epidemic simulator used inside the inversion algorithm. We present a method, based on replacing the epidemiological model with computationally inexpensive surrogates, that can reduce the computational time to minutes, without a significant loss of accuracy. The surrogates are created by projecting the output of an epidemiological model on a set of polynomial chaos bases; thereafter, computations involving the surrogate model reduce to evaluations of a polynomial. We find that the epidemic characterizations obtained with the surrogate models is very close to that obtained with the original model. We also find that the number of projections required to construct a surrogate model is O(10)-O(10{sup 2}) less than the number of samples required by the MCMC to construct a stationary posterior distribution; thus, depending upon the epidemiological models in question, it may be possible to omit the offline creation and caching of surrogate models, prior to their use in an inverse problem. The technique is demonstrated on synthetic data as well as

  9. Weatherization works: Final report of the National Weatherization Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M.A.; Berry, L.G.; Kinney, L.F.

    1994-09-01

    In 1990, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored a comprehensive evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program, the nation`s largest residential energy conservation program. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) managed the five-part study. This document summarizes the findings of the evaluation. Its conclusions are based mainly on data from the 1989 program year (supplemented by data from 1991-92). The evaluation concludes that the Program meets the objectives of its enabling legislation and fulfills its mission statement. Specifically, it (1) saves energy, (2) lowers fuel bills, and (3) improves the health and safety of dwellings occupied by low-income people. In addition, the Program achieves its mission in a cost-effective manner based on each of three perspectives employed by the evaluators. Finally, the evaluation estimates that the investments made in 1989 will, over a 20-year lifetime, save the equivalent of 12 million barrels of oil, roughly the amount of oil added to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in each of the past several years.

  10. Using Music to Communicate Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, P.; Aplin, K. L.; Brown, S.; Jenkins, K.; Mander, S.; Walsh, C.

    2016-12-01

    Depictions of weather and other atmospheric phenomena are common throughout the arts. Unlike in the visual arts, however, there has been little study of meteorological inspiration in music. This presentation will discuss the frequencies with which different weather types have been depicted in music over time, covering the period from the seventeenth century to the present day. Beginning with classical orchestral music, we find that composers were generally influenced by their own country's climate in the type of weather they chose to represent. Depictions of weather vary from explicit mimicry using traditional and specialized orchestral instruments, through to subtle suggestions. Pieces depicting stormy weather tend to be in minor keys, whereas pieces depicting fair weather tend to be in major keys. As befits the national stereotype, British composers seem disproportionately keen to depict the UK's variable weather patterns and stormy coastline. Moving onto modern popular music, we have identified and analyzed over 750 songs referring to different weather types. We find that lyrical references to bad weather peaked in songs written during the stormy 1950s and 60s, when there were many hurricanes, before declining in the relatively calm 1970s and 80s. This finding again suggests a causal link between song-writers' meteorological environments and compositional outputs. Composers and song-writers have a unique ability to emotionally connect their listeners to the environment. This ability could be exploited to communicate environmental science to a broader audience. Our work provides a catalogue of cultural responses to weather before (and during the early stages of) climate change. The effects of global warming may influence musical expression in future, in which case our work will provide a baseline for comparison.

  11. Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Program First Steps Toward Tribal Weatherization – Human Capacity Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiita, Joanne

    2013-07-30

    The Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Project expanded weatherization services for tribal members’ homes in southeast Alaska while providing weatherization training and on the job training (OJT) for tribal citizens that lead to jobs and most probably careers in weatherization-related occupations. The program resulted in; (a) 80 Alaska Native citizens provided with skills training in five weatherization training units that were delivered in cooperation with University of Alaska Southeast, in accordance with the U.S. Department of Energy Core Competencies for Weatherization Training that prepared participants for employment in three weatherizationrelated occupations: Installer, Crew Chief, and Auditor; (b) 25 paid OJT training opportunities for trainees who successfully completed the training course; and (c) employed trained personnel that have begun to rehab on over 1,000 housing units for weatherization.

  12. A Century of Monitoring Weather and Crops: The Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heddinghaus, Thomas R.; Le Comte, Douglas M.

    1992-02-01

    Publication of a national weekly weather summary called the Weekly Weather Chronicle began in 1872. This summary was the precursor of today's Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin (WWCB), a publication that reports global weather and climate conditions relevant to agricultural interests, as well as current national activities and assessments of crop and livestock conditions. The WWCB is produced by the Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF), a world agricultural weather information center located in the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) headquarters in Washington, D.C., and jointly staffed by units of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climats. Analysis Center and USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board and National Agricultural Statistics Service. Besides featuring charts and tables (e.g., temperature and precipitation maps and crop progress and condition tables), the WWCB contains summaries and special stories highlighting significant weather events affecting agriculture, such as droughts, torrential rains, floods, unusual warmth, heat waves, severe freezes, heavy snowfall, blizzards, damaging storms, and hurricanes.

  13. Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2012-01-01

    Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare

  14. Definitions and validation criteria for biomarkers and surrogate endpoints: development and testing of a quantitative hierarchical levels of evidence schema

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lassere, Marissa N; Johnson, Kent R; Boers, Maarten

    2007-01-01

    to develop a hierarchical schema that systematically evaluates and ranks the surrogacy status of biomarkers and surrogates; and to obtain feedback from stakeholders. METHODS: After a systematic search of Medline and Embase on biomarkers, surrogate (outcomes, endpoints, markers, indicators), intermediate...... endpoints, and leading indicators, a quantitative surrogate validation schema was developed and subsequently evaluated at a stakeholder workshop. RESULTS: The search identified several classification schema and definitions. Components of these were incorporated into a new quantitative surrogate validation...... of the National Institutes of Health definitions of biomarker, surrogate endpoint, and clinical endpoint was useful. CONCLUSION: Further development and application of this schema provides incentives and guidance for effective biomarker and surrogate endpoint research, and more efficient drug discovery...

  15. Weather Station and Sensor Locations, MDTA Roadway weather station, weather stations, weather sensors, Roadway weather sensors, RWIS, MDTA weather sensors, Published in 2009, 1:1200 (1in=100ft) scale, Maryland Transportation Authority.

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC GIS Inventory (aka Ramona) — This Weather Station and Sensor Locations dataset, published at 1:1200 (1in=100ft) scale, was produced all or in part from Hardcopy Maps information as of 2009. It...

  16. Weather Information Communications (WINCOMM) Project: Dissemination of Weather Information for the Reduction of Aviation Weather-Related Accident Causal Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarrell, Michael; Tanger, Thomas

    2004-01-01

    Weather Information Communications (WINCOMM) is part of the Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) Project, which is part of the NASA's Aviation Safety and Security Program. The goals of WINCOMM are to facilitate the exchange of tactical and strategic weather information between air and ground. This viewgraph presentation provides information on data link decision factors, architectures, validation goals. WINCOMM is capable of providing en-route communication air-to-ground, ground-to-air, and air-to-air, even on international or intercontinental flights. The presentation also includes information on the capacity, cost, and development of data links.

  17. Development of a multi-objective optimization algorithm using surrogate models for coastal aquifer management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kourakos, George; Mantoglou, Aristotelis

    2013-02-01

    SummaryThe demand for fresh water in coastal areas and islands can be very high due to increased local needs and tourism. A multi-objective optimization methodology is developed, involving minimization of economic and environmental costs while satisfying water demand. The methodology considers desalinization of pumped water and injection of treated water into the aquifer. Variable density aquifer models are computationally intractable when integrated in optimization algorithms. In order to alleviate this problem, a multi-objective optimization algorithm is developed combining surrogate models based on Modular Neural Networks [MOSA(MNNs)]. The surrogate models are trained adaptively during optimization based on a genetic algorithm. In the crossover step, each pair of parents generates a pool of offspring which are evaluated using the fast surrogate model. Then, the most promising offspring are evaluated using the exact numerical model. This procedure eliminates errors in Pareto solution due to imprecise predictions of the surrogate model. The method has important advancements compared to previous methods such as precise evaluation of the Pareto set and alleviation of propagation of errors due to surrogate model approximations. The method is applied to an aquifer in the Greek island of Santorini. The results show that the new MOSA(MNN) algorithm offers significant reduction in computational time compared to previous methods (in the case study it requires only 5% of the time required by other methods). Further, the Pareto solution is better than the solution obtained by alternative algorithms.

  18. Combining endangered plants and animals as surrogates to identify priority conservation areas in Yunnan, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Feiling; Hu, Jinming; Wu, Ruidong

    2016-08-01

    Suitable surrogates are critical for identifying optimal priority conservation areas (PCAs) to protect regional biodiversity. This study explored the efficiency of using endangered plants and animals as surrogates for identifying PCAs at the county level in Yunnan, southwest China. We ran the Dobson algorithm under three surrogate scenarios at 75% and 100% conservation levels and identified four types of PCAs. Assessment of the protection efficiencies of the four types of PCAs showed that endangered plants had higher surrogacy values than endangered animals but that the two were not substitutable; coupled endangered plants and animals as surrogates yielded a higher surrogacy value than endangered plants or animals as surrogates; the plant-animal priority areas (PAPAs) was the optimal among the four types of PCAs for conserving both endangered plants and animals in Yunnan. PAPAs could well represent overall species diversity distribution patterns and overlap with critical biogeographical regions in Yunnan. Fourteen priority units in PAPAs should be urgently considered as optimizing Yunnan’s protected area system. The spatial pattern of PAPAs at the 100% conservation level could be conceptualized into three connected conservation belts, providing a valuable reference for optimizing the layout of the in situ protected area system in Yunnan.

  19. Combining endangered plants and animals as surrogates to identify priority conservation areas in Yunnan, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Feiling; Hu, Jinming; Wu, Ruidong

    2016-08-19

    Suitable surrogates are critical for identifying optimal priority conservation areas (PCAs) to protect regional biodiversity. This study explored the efficiency of using endangered plants and animals as surrogates for identifying PCAs at the county level in Yunnan, southwest China. We ran the Dobson algorithm under three surrogate scenarios at 75% and 100% conservation levels and identified four types of PCAs. Assessment of the protection efficiencies of the four types of PCAs showed that endangered plants had higher surrogacy values than endangered animals but that the two were not substitutable; coupled endangered plants and animals as surrogates yielded a higher surrogacy value than endangered plants or animals as surrogates; the plant-animal priority areas (PAPAs) was the optimal among the four types of PCAs for conserving both endangered plants and animals in Yunnan. PAPAs could well represent overall species diversity distribution patterns and overlap with critical biogeographical regions in Yunnan. Fourteen priority units in PAPAs should be urgently considered as optimizing Yunnan's protected area system. The spatial pattern of PAPAs at the 100% conservation level could be conceptualized into three connected conservation belts, providing a valuable reference for optimizing the layout of the in situ protected area system in Yunnan.

  20. Surrogate utility estimation by long-term partners and unfamiliar dyads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J Tunney

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available To what extent are people able to make predictions about other people’s preferences and values? We report two experiments that present a novel method assessing some of the basic processes in surrogate decision-making, namely surrogate-utility estimation. In each experiment participants formed dyads who were asked to assign utilities to health related items and commodity items, and to predict their partner’s utility judgments for the same items. In experiment one we showed that older adults in long-term relationships were able to accurately predict their partner’s wishes. In experiment two we showed that younger adults who were relatively unfamiliar with one another were also able to predict other people’s wishes. Crucially we demonstrated that these judgments were accurate even after partialling out each participant’s own preferences indicating that in order to make surrogate utility estimations people engage in perspective-taking rather than simple anchoring and adjustment, suggesting that utility estimation is not the cause of inaccuracy in surrogate decision-making. The data and implications are discussed with respect to theories of surrogate decision-making.

  1. Surrogate POD models for building forming limit diagrams of parameterized sheet metal forming applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdaoui, M.; Le Quilliec, Guénhaël; Breitkopf, Piotr; Villon, Pierre

    2013-05-01

    The aim of this work is to present a surrogate POD (Proper Orthogonal Decomposition) approach for building forming limit diagrams at minimum cost for parameterized sheet metal formed work-pieces. First, a Latin Hypercube Sampling is performed on the design parameter space. Then, at each design site, displacement fields are computed using the popular open-source finite element software Code_Aster. Then, the method of snapshots is used for POD mode determination. POD coefficients are interpolated using kriging. Furthermore, an error analysis of the surrogate POD model is performed on a validation set. It is shown that on the considered use case the accuracy of the surrogate POD model is excellent for the representation of finite element displacement fields. The validated surrogate POD model is then used to build forming limit diagrams (FLD) for any design parameter to assess the quality of stamped metal sheets. Using the surrogate POD model, the Green-Lagrange strain tensor is derived, then major and minor principal deformations are determined at Gauss points for each mesh element. Furthermore, a signed distance between the forming limit curve in rupture and the obtained cloud of points in the plane (ɛ2, ɛ1) is computed to assess the quality of the formed workpiece. The minimization of this signed distance allows determining the safest design for the chosen use case.

  2. Stochastic structural optimization using particle swarm optimization, surrogate models and Bayesian statistics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jongbin Im; Jungsun Park

    2013-01-01

    This paper focuses on a method to solve structural optimization problems using particle swarm optimization (PSO),surrogate models and Bayesian statistics.PSO is a random/stochastic search algorithm designed to find the global optimum.However,PSO needs many evaluations compared to gradient-based optimization.This means PSO increases the analysis costs of structural optimization.One of the methods to reduce computing costs in stochastic optimization is to use approximation techniques.In this work,surrogate models are used,including the response surface method (RSM) and Kriging.When surrogate models are used,there are some errors between exact values and approximated values.These errors decrease the reliability of the optimum values and discard the realistic approximation of using surrogate models.In this paper,Bayesian statistics is used to obtain more reliable results.To verify and confirm the efficiency of the proposed method using surrogate models and Bayesian statistics for stochastic structural optimization,two numerical examples are optimized,and the optimization of a hub sleeve is demonstrated as a practical problem.

  3. On-line data acquisition system for Aanderaa weather station

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    AshokKumar, K.; Diwan, S.G.

    Aanderaa Weather Station can be installed at unattended remote places for collection of various weather parameters at regular preselected intervals. The weather parameters are recorded on the magnetic spool inside a battery operated datalogger which...

  4. Operational, regional-scale, chemical weather forecasting models in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kukkonen, J.; Balk, T.; Schultz, D.M.; Baklanov, A.; Klein, T.; Miranda, A.I.; Monteiro, A.; Hirtl, M.; Tarvainen, V.; Boy, M.; Peuch, V.H.; Poupkou, A.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Finardi, S.; Sofiev, M.; Sokhi, R.; Lehtinen, K.; Karatzas, K.; San José, R.; Astitha, M.; Kallos, G.; Schaap, M.; Reimer, E.; Jakobs, H.; Eben, K.

    2011-01-01

    Numerical models that combine weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry are here referred to as chemical weather forecasting models. Eighteen operational chemical weather forecasting models on regional and continental scales in Europe are described and compared in this article. Topics discussed

  5. Weatherization Works: Final Report of the National Weatherization Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M.A.

    2001-02-01

    In 1990, the US Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored a comprehensive evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program, the nation's largest residential energy conservation program. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) managed the five-part study. This document summarizes the findings of the evaluation. Its conclusions are based mainly on data from the 1989 program year. The evaluation concludes that the Program meets the objectives of its enabling legislation and fulfills its mission statement. Specifically, it saves energy, lowers fuel bills, and improves the health and safety of dwellings occupied by low-income people. In addition, the Program achieves its mission in a cost-effective manner based on each of three perspectives employed by the evaluators. Finally, the evaluation estimates that the investments made in 1989 will, over a 20-year lifetime, save the equivalent of 12 million barrels of oil, roughly the amount of oil added to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in each of the past several years. The Program's mission is to reduce the heating and cooling costs for low-income families--particularly the elderly, persons with disabilities, and children by improving the energy efficiency of their homes and ensuring their health and safety. Substantial progress has been made, but the job is far from over. The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) reports that the average low-income family spends 12 percent of its income on residential energy, compared to only 3% for the average-income family. Homes where low-income families live also have a greater need for energy efficiency improvements, but less money to pay for them.

  6. MEASURING SYSTEM OF ADVERSE WEATHER PHENOMENA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ćurić

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Measuring system of adverse weather phenomena. The adverse weather phenomena in nowadays are becoming an extraordinary problem in human life and human activity. Therefore, it seems very important to know the thresholds of adverse weather phenomena. These thresholds can be calculated in different ways, but some experience has shown that for weather elements which departures from normal follow the normal distribution suits to use the Gaussian curve of frequency distribution (temperature and pressure. For such weather elements the normal curve of frequency distribution may be used for classification of thresholds. For weather elements which departures do not depend on such a frequency distribution configuration (precipitation amounts may be used a decile method. For wind speed thresholds, the Beaufort scale units can be used for calculation. In this paper the threshold scales for four basic weather elemnts are presented. All these scales contain four steps each. They are defined: normal, above normal, much above normal and extraordinary above normal or normal, below normal, much below normal and extraordinary below normal. The examples by observations of Meteorological Observatory in Belgrade are presented.

  7. Time-varying surrogate data to assess nonlinearity in nonstationary time series: application to heart rate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faes, Luca; Zhao, He; Chon, Ki H; Nollo, Giandomenico

    2009-03-01

    We propose a method to extend to time-varying (TV) systems the procedure for generating typical surrogate time series, in order to test the presence of nonlinear dynamics in potentially nonstationary signals. The method is based on fitting a TV autoregressive (AR) model to the original series and then regressing the model coefficients with random replacements of the model residuals to generate TV AR surrogate series. The proposed surrogate series were used in combination with a TV sample entropy (SE) discriminating statistic to assess nonlinearity in both simulated and experimental time series, in comparison with traditional time-invariant (TIV) surrogates combined with the TIV SE discriminating statistic. Analysis of simulated time series showed that using TIV surrogates, linear nonstationary time series may be erroneously regarded as nonlinear and weak TV nonlinearities may remain unrevealed, while the use of TV AR surrogates markedly increases the probability of a correct interpretation. Application to short (500 beats) heart rate variability (HRV) time series recorded at rest (R), after head-up tilt (T), and during paced breathing (PB) showed: 1) modifications of the SE statistic that were well interpretable with the known cardiovascular physiology; 2) significant contribution of nonlinear dynamics to HRV in all conditions, with significant increase during PB at 0.2 Hz respiration rate; and 3) a disagreement between TV AR surrogates and TIV surrogates in about a quarter of the series, suggesting that nonstationarity may affect HRV recordings and bias the outcome of the traditional surrogate-based nonlinearity test.

  8. The Integrated Space Weather Analysis System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maddox, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Kuznetsova, M.; Rastaetter, L.; MacNeice, P. J.; Jain, P.; Garneau, J. W.; Berrios, D. H.; Pulkinnen, A.; Rowland, D.

    2008-12-01

    Space weather affects virtually all of NASA's endeavors, from robotic missions to human exploration. Knowledge and prediction of space weather conditions is therefore essential to NASA operations. The diverse nature of currently available space environment measurements and modeling products, along with the lack of single-portal access, renders its practical use for space weather analysis and forecasting unfeasible. There exists a compelling need for accurate real-time forecasting of both large-scale and local space environments - and their probable impacts for missions. A vital design driver for any system that is created to solve this problem lies in the fact that information needs to be presented in a form that is useful and as such, must be both easily accessible and understandable. The Integrated Space Weather Analysis System is a joint development project at NASA GSFC between the Space Weather Laboratory, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Applied Engineering & Technology Directorate, and NASA HQ Office Of Chief Engineer. The iSWA system will be a turnkey, web-based dissemination system for NASA-relevant space weather information that combines forecasts based on the most advanced space weather models with concurrent space environment information. It will be customer configurable and adaptable for use as a powerful decision making tool offering an unprecedented ability to analyze the present and expected future space weather impacts on virtually all NASA human and robotic missions. We will discuss some of the key design considerations for the system and present some of the initial space weather analysis products that have been created to date.

  9. Weather station with a web server

    OpenAIRE

    Repinc, Matej

    2013-01-01

    In this diploma thesis we present the process of making a cheap weather station using Arduino prototyping platform and its functionality. The weather station monitors current temperature, humidity of air and air pressure. The station has its own simple HTTP server that is used to relay current data in two different formats: JSON encoded data and simple HTML website. The weather station can also send data to a pre-defined server used for data collection. We implemented a web site where data an...

  10. The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Peter; Thorpe, Alan; Brunet, Gilbert

    2015-09-01

    Advances in numerical weather prediction represent a quiet revolution because they have resulted from a steady accumulation of scientific knowledge and technological advances over many years that, with only a few exceptions, have not been associated with the aura of fundamental physics breakthroughs. Nonetheless, the impact of numerical weather prediction is among the greatest of any area of physical science. As a computational problem, global weather prediction is comparable to the simulation of the human brain and of the evolution of the early Universe, and it is performed every day at major operational centres across the world.

  11. Space weather and coronal mass ejections

    CERN Document Server

    Howard, Tim

    2013-01-01

    Space weather has attracted a lot of attention in recent times. Severe space weather can disrupt spacecraft, and on Earth can be the cause of power outages and power station failure. It also presents a radiation hazard for airline passengers and astronauts. These ""magnetic storms"" are most commonly caused by coronal mass ejections, or CMES, which are large eruptions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun that can reach speeds of several thousand km/s. In this SpringerBrief, Space Weather and Coronal Mass Ejections, author Timothy Howard briefly introduces the coronal mass ejection, its sc

  12. PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF: All Weather Friendship Keeps Rising

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    @@ Tangible Suggestions on Promoting All Weather Bilateral Trade I would first of all like to extend warm greetings from the people of Pakistan to the people of China on the 55th year of all weather friendship between our two countries and this all weather friendship will keep rising. Succeeding generations in both countries have ever since carefully nurtured this friendship which has blossomed into beautiful and all comprehensive partnership for peace and development. Pakistan China friendship is rooted in the ethos of our peoples.It evokes spontaneous love, respect, admiration and touches a receptive cord in every heart that resonates and energizes this unique relationship.

  13. NASA GSFC Space Weather Center - Innovative Space Weather Dissemination: Web-Interfaces, Mobile Applications, and More

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maddox, Marlo; Zheng, Yihua; Rastaetter, Lutz; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Lee, Hyesook; Chulaki, Anna; Hesse, Michael; Mullinix, Richard; hide

    2012-01-01

    The NASA GSFC Space Weather Center (http://swc.gsfc.nasa.gov) is committed to providing forecasts, alerts, research, and educational support to address NASA's space weather needs - in addition to the needs of the general space weather community. We provide a host of services including spacecraft anomaly resolution, historical impact analysis, real-time monitoring and forecasting, custom space weather alerts and products, weekly summaries and reports, and most recently - video casts. There are many challenges in providing accurate descriptions of past, present, and expected space weather events - and the Space Weather Center at NASA GSFC employs several innovative solutions to provide access to a comprehensive collection of both observational data, as well as space weather model/simulation data. We'll describe the challenges we've faced with managing hundreds of data streams, running models in real-time, data storage, and data dissemination. We'll also highlight several systems and tools that are utilized by the Space Weather Center in our daily operations, all of which are available to the general community as well. These systems and services include a web-based application called the Integrated Space Weather Analysis System (iSWA http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov), two mobile space weather applications for both IOS and Android devices, an external API for web-service style access to data, google earth compatible data products, and a downloadable client-based visualization tool.

  14. Neutron-induced cross sections of actinides via the surrogate-reaction method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ducasse Q.

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The surrogate-reaction method is an indirect way of determining cross sections for reactions that proceed through a compound nucleus. This technique may enable neutron-induced cross sections to be extracted for short-lived nuclei that otherwise cannot be measured. However, the validity of the surrogate method has to be investigated. In particular, the absence of a compound nucleus formation and the Jπ dependence of the decay probabilities may question the method. In this work we study the reactions 238U(d,p239U, 238U(3He,t238Np, 238U(3He,4He237U as surrogates for neutron-induced reactions on 238U, 237Np and 236U, respectively, for which good quality data exist. The experimental set-up enabled the measurement of fission and gamma-decay probabilities. The first results are hereby presented.

  15. Surrogate fuel formulation for light naphtha combustion in advanced combustion engines

    KAUST Repository

    Ahmed, Ahfaz

    2015-03-30

    Crude oil once recovered is further separated in to several distinct fractions to produce a range of energy and chemical products. One of the less processed fractions is light naphtha (LN), hence they are more economical to produce than their gasoline and diesel counterparts. Recent efforts have demonstrated usage of LN as transportation fuel for internal combustion engines with slight modifications. In this study, a multicomponent surrogate fuel has been developed for light naphtha fuel using a multi-variable nonlinear constrained optimization scheme. The surrogate, consisting of palette species n-pentane, 2-methylhexane, 2-methylbutane, n-heptane and toluene, was validated against the LN using ignition quality tester following ASTM D6890 methodology. Comparison of LN and the surrogate fuel demonstrated satisfactory agreement.

  16. Enhanced CRISPR/Cas9-mediated biallelic genome targeting with dual surrogate reporter-integrated donors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yun; Xu, Kun; Ren, Chonghua; Li, Xinyi; Lv, Huijiao; Han, Furong; Wei, Zehui; Wang, Xin; Zhang, Zhiying

    2017-03-01

    The clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeat (CRISPR)/CRISPR-associated protein 9 (Cas9) system has recently emerged as a simple, yet powerful genome engineering tool, which has been widely used for genome modification in various organisms and cell types. However, screening biallelic genome-modified cells is often time-consuming and technically challenging. In this study, we incorporated two different surrogate reporter cassettes into paired donor plasmids, which were used as both the surrogate reporters and the knock-in donors. By applying our dual surrogate reporter-integrated donor system, we demonstrate high frequency of CRISPR/Cas9-mediated biallelic genome integration in both human HEK293T and porcine PK15 cells (34.09% and 18.18%, respectively). Our work provides a powerful genetic tool for assisting the selection and enrichment of cells with targeted biallelic genome modification. © 2017 Federation of European Biochemical Societies.

  17. Two-step nuclear reactions: The Surrogate Method, the Trojan Horse Method and their common foundations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hussein, Mahir S. [DCTA, Instituto Tecnologico de Aeronautica, Sao Jose dos Campos, SP (Brazil); Universidade de Sao Paulo, Instituto de Estudos Avancados, C. P. 72012, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Universidade de Sao Paulo, Instituto de Fisica, C. P. 66318, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2017-05-15

    In this Letter I argue that the Surrogate Method, used to extract the fast neutron capture cross section on actinide target nuclei, which has important practical application for the next generation of breeder reactors, and the Trojan Horse Method employed to extract reactions of importance to nuclear astrophysics, have a common foundation, the Inclusive Non-Elastic Breakup (INEB) Theory. Whereas the Surrogate Method relies on the premise that the extracted neutron cross section in a (d, p) reaction is predominantly a compound-nucleus one, the Trojan Horse Method assumes a predominantly direct process for the secondary reaction induced by the surrogate fragment. In general, both methods contain both direct and compound contributions, and I show how these seemingly distinct methods are in fact the same but at different energies and different kinematic regions. The unifying theory is the rather well developed INEB theory. (orig.)

  18. Validating (d,pγ as a Surrogate for Neutron Capture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ratkiewicz A.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The r-process is responsible for creating roughly half of the elements heavier than iron. It has recently become understood that the rates at which neutron capture reactions proceed at late times in the r-process may dramatically affect the final abundance pattern. However, direct measurements of neutron capture reaction rates on exotic nuclei are exceptionally difficult, necessitating the development of indirect approaches such as the surrogate technique. The (d,pγ reaction at low energies was identified as a promising surrogate for the (n,γ reaction, as both reactions share many characteristics. We report on a program to validate (d,pγ as a surrogate for (n,γ using 95Mo as a target. The experimental campaign includes direct measurements of the γ-ray intensities from the decay of excited states populated in the 95Mo(n,γ and 95Mo(d,pγ reactions.

  19. Analytical approximations for temperature dependent thermophysical properties of supercritical diesel fuel surrogates used in combustion modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Abhinav; Saini, Vishnu; Dondapati, Raja Sekhar; Usurumarti, Preeti Rao

    2017-07-01

    Supercritical fluid technology is introduced to combat the critical challenges related with emissions, incomplete and clean diesel fuel combustion. The chemical kinetics of diesel fuel is a strong function of temperature. As surrogate fuels have a potential to represent a real diesel fuel, thermophysical properties of such fuels have been studied in this present work as a function of temperature. Further, two diesel surrogate fuels which have been identified as the components of actual diesel fuel for jet engines are studied and thermophysical properties of these two surrogates are evaluated as a function of temperature at critical pressure. In addition, the accuracy and reliability of the developed correlations is estimated using two statistical parameters such as Absolute Average of Relative Error (AARE) and Sum of Average Residues (SAR). Results show an excellent agreement between the standard data and the correlated property values.

  20. Validating (d,pγ) as a surrogate for neutron capture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ratkiewicz, A. [Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ (United States); Cizewski, J. A. [Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ (United States); Pain, S. D. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Adekola, A. S. [Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ (United States); Burke, J. T. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Casperson, R. J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Fotiadis, Nikolaos [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); McCleskey, M. [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States); Burcher, S. [Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ (United States); Shand, C. M [Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ (United States); Austin, R. A. E. [Saint Mary' s Univ., Halifax (Canada); Baugher, T. [Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ (United States); Carpenter, M. P. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Devlin, Matthew James [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Escher, J. E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Hardy, S. [Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ (United States); Hatarik, R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Howard, M. E. [Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ (United States); Hughes, R. O. [Univ. of Richmond, VA (United States); Jones, K. L. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Kozub, R. L. [Tennessee Technological Univ., Cookeville, TN (United States); Lister, C. J. [Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA (United States); Manning, B. [Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ (United States); O' Donnell, John M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Peters, W. A. [oak ridge associated Univ., TN (United States); Ross, T. J. [Univ. of Richmond, VA (United States); Scielzo, N. D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Seweryniak, D. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Zhu, S. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2015-02-13

    The r-process is responsible for creating roughly half of the elements heavier than iron. It has recently become understood that the rates at which neutron capture reactions proceed at late times in the r-process may dramatically affect the final abundance pattern. However, direct measurements of neutron capture reaction rates on exotic nuclei are exceptionally difficult, necessitating the development of indirect approaches such as the surrogate technique. The (d,pγ) reaction at low energies was identified as a promising surrogate for the (n,γ) reaction, as both reactions share many characteristics. We report on a program to validate (d,pγ) as a surrogate for (n,γ) using 95Mo as a target. The experimental campaign includes direct measurements of the γ-ray intensities from the decay of excited states populated in the 95Mo(n,γ) and 95Mo(d,pγ) reactions.

  1. Kinetic Modeling of Gasoline Surrogate Components and Mixtures under Engine Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mehl, M; Pitz, W J; Westbrook, C K; Curran, H J

    2010-01-11

    Real fuels are complex mixtures of thousands of hydrocarbon compounds including linear and branched paraffins, naphthenes, olefins and aromatics. It is generally agreed that their behavior can be effectively reproduced by simpler fuel surrogates containing a limited number of components. In this work, an improved version of the kinetic model by the authors is used to analyze the combustion behavior of several components relevant to gasoline surrogate formulation. Particular attention is devoted to linear and branched saturated hydrocarbons (PRF mixtures), olefins (1-hexene) and aromatics (toluene). Model predictions for pure components, binary mixtures and multicomponent gasoline surrogates are compared with recent experimental information collected in rapid compression machine, shock tube and jet stirred reactors covering a wide range of conditions pertinent to internal combustion engines (3-50 atm, 650-1200K, stoichiometric fuel/air mixtures). Simulation results are discussed focusing attention on the mixing effects of the fuel components.

  2. Two-step nuclear reactions: The Surrogate Method, the Trojan Horse Method and their common foundations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussein, Mahir S.

    2017-05-01

    In this Letter I argue that the Surrogate Method, used to extract the fast neutron capture cross section on actinide target nuclei, which has important practical application for the next generation of breeder reactors, and the Trojan Horse Method employed to extract reactions of importance to nuclear astrophysics, have a common foundation, the Inclusive Non-Elastic Breakup (INEB) Theory. Whereas the Surrogate Method relies on the premise that the extracted neutron cross section in a ( d, p) reaction is predominantly a compound-nucleus one, the Trojan Horse Method assumes a predominantly direct process for the secondary reaction induced by the surrogate fragment. In general, both methods contain both direct and compound contributions, and I show how these seemingly distinct methods are in fact the same but at different energies and different kinematic regions. The unifying theory is the rather well developed INEB theory.

  3. Neutron-induced cross sections of actinides via the surrogate-reaction method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tveten G. M.

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The surrogate-reaction method is an indirect way of determining cross sections for reactions that proceed through a compound nucleus. This technique may enable neutron-induced cross sections to be extracted for short-lived nuclei that otherwise cannot be measured. However, the validity of the surrogate method for extracting capture cross sections has to be investigated. In this work we study the reactions 238U(d,p239U, 238U(3He,t238Np, 238U(3He,4He237U as surrogates for neutroninduced reactions on 238U, 237Np and 236U, respectively, for which good quality data exist. The experimental set-up enabled the measurement of fission and gamma-decay probabilities. First results are presented and discussed.

  4. Validating (d,p gamma) as a Surrogate for Neutron Capture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ratkiewicz, A. [Rutgers University; Cizewski, J. A. [Rutgers University; Pain, S. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); Adekola, A. S. [Rutgers University; Burke, J. T. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Casperson, R.J. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Fotiades, N. [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL); McCleskey, M. [Texas A& M University; Burcher, S. [Rutgers University; Shand, C. M. [Rutgers Univ./Univ. of Surrey, UK; Austin, R. A. E. [Saint Mary’s University, Halifa, Canada; Baugher, T. [Rutgers University; Carpenter, M. P. [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL); Devlin, M. [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL); Escher, J. E. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Hardy, S. [Rutgers Univ./Univ. of Surrey, UK; Hatarik, R. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Howard, M. [Rutgers University; Hughes, R. [University of Richmond, VA; Jones, K. L. [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Kozub, R. L. [Tennessee Technological University (TTU); Lister, C. J. [University of Massachusetts, Lowell; Manning, B. [Rutgers University; O' Donnell, J. M. [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL); Peters, W. A. [Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU); Ross, T.J. [University of Richmond, VA; Scielzo, N.D. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Seweryniak, D. [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL); Zhu, S. [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)

    2015-01-01

    The r-process is responsible for creating roughly half of the elements heavier than iron. It has recently become understood that the rates at which neutron capture reactions proceed at late times in the rprocess may dramatically affect the final abundance pattern. However, direct measurements of neutron capture reaction rates on exotic nuclei are exceptionally difficult, necessitating the development of indirect approaches such as the surrogate technique. The (d,py) reaction at low energies was identified as a promising surrogate for the (n,y) reaction, as both reactions share many characteristics. We report on a program to validate (d,py) as a surrogate for (n,y) using 95Mo as a target. The experimental campaign includes direct measurements of the y-ray intensities from the decay of excited states populated in the 95Mo(n,y) and 95Mo(d,py) reactions.

  5. Adaptive surrogate modeling for response surface approximations with application to bayesian inference

    KAUST Repository

    Prudhomme, Serge

    2015-09-17

    Parameter estimation for complex models using Bayesian inference is usually a very costly process as it requires a large number of solves of the forward problem. We show here how the construction of adaptive surrogate models using a posteriori error estimates for quantities of interest can significantly reduce the computational cost in problems of statistical inference. As surrogate models provide only approximations of the true solutions of the forward problem, it is nevertheless necessary to control these errors in order to construct an accurate reduced model with respect to the observables utilized in the identification of the model parameters. Effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated on a numerical example dealing with the Spalart–Allmaras model for the simulation of turbulent channel flows. In particular, we illustrate how Bayesian model selection using the adapted surrogate model in place of solving the coupled nonlinear equations leads to the same quality of results while requiring fewer nonlinear PDE solves.

  6. Powernext weather, benchmark indices for effective weather risk management; Powernext Weather, des indices de reference pour gerer le risque meteo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the Powernext/Meteo France partnership for the elaboration of efficient weather-related risk management indices. (J.S.)

  7. Testing Pairwise Association between Spatially Autocorrelated Variables: A New Approach Using Surrogate Lattice Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deblauwe, Vincent; Kennel, Pol; Couteron, Pierre

    2012-01-01

    Background Independence between observations is a standard prerequisite of traditional statistical tests of association. This condition is, however, violated when autocorrelation is present within the data. In the case of variables that are regularly sampled in space (i.e. lattice data or images), such as those provided by remote-sensing or geographical databases, this problem is particularly acute. Because analytic derivation of the null probability distribution of the test statistic (e.g. Pearson's r) is not always possible when autocorrelation is present, we propose instead the use of a Monte Carlo simulation with surrogate data. Methodology/Principal Findings The null hypothesis that two observed mapped variables are the result of independent pattern generating processes is tested here by generating sets of random image data while preserving the autocorrelation function of the original images. Surrogates are generated by matching the dual-tree complex wavelet spectra (and hence the autocorrelation functions) of white noise images with the spectra of the original images. The generated images can then be used to build the probability distribution function of any statistic of association under the null hypothesis. We demonstrate the validity of a statistical test of association based on these surrogates with both actual and synthetic data and compare it with a corrected parametric test and three existing methods that generate surrogates (randomization, random rotations and shifts, and iterative amplitude adjusted Fourier transform). Type I error control was excellent, even with strong and long-range autocorrelation, which is not the case for alternative methods. Conclusions/Significance The wavelet-based surrogates are particularly appropriate in cases where autocorrelation appears at all scales or is direction-dependent (anisotropy). We explore the potential of the method for association tests involving a lattice of binary data and discuss its potential for

  8. Calibration of an agricultural-hydrological model (RZWQM2) using surrogate global optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xi, Maolong; Lu, Dan; Gui, Dongwei; Qi, Zhiming; Zhang, Guannan

    2017-01-01

    Robust calibration of an agricultural-hydrological model is critical for simulating crop yield and water quality and making reasonable agricultural management. However, calibration of the agricultural-hydrological system models is challenging because of model complexity, the existence of strong parameter correlation, and significant computational requirements. Therefore, only a limited number of simulations can be allowed in any attempt to find a near-optimal solution within an affordable time, which greatly restricts the successful application of the model. The goal of this study is to locate the optimal solution of the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2) given a limited simulation time, so as to improve the model simulation and help make rational and effective agricultural-hydrological decisions. To this end, we propose a computationally efficient global optimization procedure using sparse-grid based surrogates. We first used advanced sparse grid (SG) interpolation to construct a surrogate system of the actual RZWQM2, and then we calibrate the surrogate model using the global optimization algorithm, Quantum-behaved Particle Swarm Optimization (QPSO). As the surrogate model is a polynomial with fast evaluation, it can be efficiently evaluated with a sufficiently large number of times during the optimization, which facilitates the global search. We calibrate seven model parameters against five years of yield, drain flow, and NO3-N loss data from a subsurface-drained corn-soybean field in Iowa. Results indicate that an accurate surrogate model can be created for the RZWQM2 with a relatively small number of SG points (i.e., RZWQM2 runs). Compared to the conventional QPSO algorithm, our surrogate-based optimization method can achieve a smaller objective function value and better calibration performance using a fewer number of expensive RZWQM2 executions, which greatly improves computational efficiency.

  9. Multimission Fuel-Burn Minimization in Aircraft Design: A Surrogate-Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liem, Rhea Patricia

    Aerodynamic shape and aerostructural design optimizations that maximize the performance at a single flight condition result in designs with unacceptable off-design performance. While considering multiple flight conditions in the optimization improves the robustness of the designs, there is a need to develop a rational strategy for choosing the flight conditions and their relative emphases such that multipoint optimizations reflect the true objective function. In addition, there is a need to consider uncertain missions and flight conditions. In this thesis, the strategies to formulate the multipoint objective functions for aerodynamic shape and aerostructural optimization are presented. To determine the flight conditions and their corresponding weights, a novel surrogate-based mission analysis is developed to efficiently analyze hundreds of actual mission data to emulate their flight condition distribution. Using accurate and reliable surrogate models to approximate the aerodynamic coefficients used in the analysis makes this procedure computationally tractable. A mixture of experts (ME) approach is developed to overcome the limitations of conventional surrogate models in modeling the complex transonic drag profile. The ME approach combines multiple surrogate models probabilistically based on the divide-andconquer strategy. Using this model in the mission analysis significantly improves the range estimation accuracy, as compared to other conventional surrogate models. As expected, the multipoint aerodynamic shape and aerostructural optimizations demonstrate a consistent drag reduction, instead of the localized improvement by the single-point optimizations. The improved robustness in the multipoint optimized designs was also observed in terms of the improved range performance and more consistent fuel-burn reduction across the different missions. The results presented in this thesis show that the surrogate-model-assisted multipoint optimization produces a robust

  10. Two-dimensional surrogate contact modeling for computationally efficient dynamic simulation of total knee replacements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yi-Chung; Haftka, Raphael T; Queipo, Nestor V; Fregly, Benjamin J

    2009-04-01

    Computational speed is a major limiting factor for performing design sensitivity and optimization studies of total knee replacements. Much of this limitation arises from extensive geometry calculations required by contact analyses. This study presents a novel surrogate contact modeling approach to address this limitation. The approach involves fitting contact forces from a computationally expensive contact model (e.g., a finite element model) as a function of the relative pose between the contacting bodies. Because contact forces are much more sensitive to displacements in some directions than others, standard surrogate sampling and modeling techniques do not work well, necessitating the development of special techniques for contact problems. We present a computational evaluation and practical application of the approach using dynamic wear simulation of a total knee replacement constrained to planar motion in a Stanmore machine. The sample points needed for surrogate model fitting were generated by an elastic foundation (EF) contact model. For the computational evaluation, we performed nine different dynamic wear simulations with both the surrogate contact model and the EF contact model. In all cases, the surrogate contact model accurately reproduced the contact force, motion, and wear volume results from the EF model, with computation time being reduced from 13 min to 13 s. For the practical application, we performed a series of Monte Carlo analyses to determine the sensitivity of predicted wear volume to Stanmore machine setup issues. Wear volume was highly sensitive to small variations in motion and load inputs, especially femoral flexion angle, but not to small variations in component placements. Computational speed was reduced from an estimated 230 h to 4 h per analysis. Surrogate contact modeling can significantly improve the computational speed of dynamic contact and wear simulations of total knee replacements and is appropriate for use in design sensitivity

  11. Testing pairwise association between spatially autocorrelated variables: a new approach using surrogate lattice data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent Deblauwe

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Independence between observations is a standard prerequisite of traditional statistical tests of association. This condition is, however, violated when autocorrelation is present within the data. In the case of variables that are regularly sampled in space (i.e. lattice data or images, such as those provided by remote-sensing or geographical databases, this problem is particularly acute. Because analytic derivation of the null probability distribution of the test statistic (e.g. Pearson's r is not always possible when autocorrelation is present, we propose instead the use of a Monte Carlo simulation with surrogate data. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The null hypothesis that two observed mapped variables are the result of independent pattern generating processes is tested here by generating sets of random image data while preserving the autocorrelation function of the original images. Surrogates are generated by matching the dual-tree complex wavelet spectra (and hence the autocorrelation functions of white noise images with the spectra of the original images. The generated images can then be used to build the probability distribution function of any statistic of association under the null hypothesis. We demonstrate the validity of a statistical test of association based on these surrogates with both actual and synthetic data and compare it with a corrected parametric test and three existing methods that generate surrogates (randomization, random rotations and shifts, and iterative amplitude adjusted Fourier transform. Type I error control was excellent, even with strong and long-range autocorrelation, which is not the case for alternative methods. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The wavelet-based surrogates are particularly appropriate in cases where autocorrelation appears at all scales or is direction-dependent (anisotropy. We explore the potential of the method for association tests involving a lattice of binary data and discuss its

  12. Surrogate analysis and index developer (SAID) tool and real-time data dissemination utilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domanski, Marian M.; Straub, Timothy D.; Wood, Molly S.; Landers, Mark N.; Wall, Gary R.; Brady, Steven J.

    2015-01-01

    The use of acoustic and other parameters as surrogates for suspended-sediment concentrations (SSC) in rivers has been successful in multiple applications across the Nation. Critical to advancing the operational use of surrogates are tools to process and evaluate the data along with the subsequent development of regression models from which real-time sediment concentrations can be made available to the public. Recent developments in both areas are having an immediate impact on surrogate research, and on surrogate monitoring sites currently in operation. The Surrogate Analysis and Index Developer (SAID) standalone tool, under development by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), assists in the creation of regression models that relate response and explanatory variables by providing visual and quantitative diagnostics to the user. SAID also processes acoustic parameters to be used as explanatory variables for suspended-sediment concentrations. The sediment acoustic method utilizes acoustic parameters from fixed-mount stationary equipment. The background theory and method used by the tool have been described in recent publications, and the tool also serves to support sediment-acoustic-index methods being drafted by the multi-agency Sediment Acoustic Leadership Team (SALT), and other surrogate guidelines like USGS Techniques and Methods 3-C4 for turbidity and SSC. The regression models in SAID can be used in utilities that have been developed to work with the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS) and for the USGS National Real-Time Water Quality (NRTWQ) Web site. The real-time dissemination of predicted SSC and prediction intervals for each time step has substantial potential to improve understanding of sediment-related water-quality and associated engineering and ecological management decisions.

  13. Impact of Tactical and Strategic Weather Avoidance on Separation Assurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Refai, Mohamad S.; Windhorst, Robert

    2011-01-01

    The ability to keep flights away from weather hazards while maintaining aircraft-to-aircraft separation is critically important. The Advanced Airspace Concept is an automation concept that implements a ground-based strategic conflict resolution algorithm for management of aircraft separation. The impact of dynamic and uncertain weather avoidance on this concept is investigated. A strategic weather rerouting system is integrated with the Advanced Airspace Concept, which also provides a tactical weather avoidance algorithm, in a fast time simulation of the Air Transportation System. Strategic weather rerouting is used to plan routes around weather in the 20 minute to two-hour time horizon. To address forecast uncertainty, flight routes are revised at 15 minute intervals. Tactical weather avoidance is used for short term trajectory adjustments (30 minute planning horizon) that are updated every minute to address any weather conflicts (instances where aircraft are predicted to pass through weather cells) that are left unresolved by strategic weather rerouting. The fast time simulation is used to assess the impact of tactical weather avoidance on the performance of automated conflict resolution as well as the impact of strategic weather rerouting on both conflict resolution and tactical weather avoidance. The results demonstrate that both tactical weather avoidance and strategic weather rerouting increase the algorithm complexity required to find aircraft conflict resolutions. Results also demonstrate that tactical weather avoidance is prone to higher airborne delay than strategic weather rerouting. Adding strategic weather rerouting to tactical weather avoidance reduces total airborne delays for the reported scenario by 18% and reduces the number of remaining weather violations by 13%. Finally, two features are identified that have proven important for strategic weather rerouting to realize these benefits; namely, the ability to revise reroutes and the use of maneuvers

  14. National Ignition Facility wet weather construction plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kugler, A N

    1998-01-01

    This report presents a wet weather construction plan for the National Ignition Facility (NIF) construction project. Construction of the NIF commenced in mid- 1997, and excavation of the site was completed in the fall. Preparations for placing concrete foundations began in the fall, and above normal rainfall is expected over the tinter. Heavy rainfall in late November impacted foundation construction, and a wet weather construction plan was determined to be needed. This wet weather constiction plan recommends a strategy, techniques and management practices to prepare and protect the site corn wet weather effects and allow construction work to proceed. It is intended that information in this plan be incorporated in the Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) as warranted.

  15. Improving Local Weather Forecasts for Agricultural Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.; Keesman, K.J.

    2005-01-01

    For controlling agricultural systems, weather forecasts can be of substantial importance. Studies have shown that forecast errors can be reduced in terms of bias and standard deviation using forecasts and meteorological measurements from one specific meteorological station. For agricultural systems

  16. Space weather research and forecast in USA

    CERN Document Server

    Pevtsov, Alexei A

    2016-01-01

    In the United States, scientific research in space weather is funded by several Government Agencies including the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA). For commercial purposes, space weather forecast is made by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Observations come from the network of groundbased observatories funded via various sources, as well as from the instruments on spacecraft. Numerical models used in forecast are developed in the framework of individual research projects. Later, the most promising models are selected for additional testing at SWPC. In order to increase the application of models in research and education, NASA in collaboration with other agencies created Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). In mid-1990, US scientific community presented compelling evidence for developing the National Program on Space Weather, and in 1995, such program has been formally created...

  17. Improving Local Weather Forecasts for Agricultural Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.; Keesman, K.J.

    2005-01-01

    For controlling agricultural systems, weather forecasts can be of substantial importance. Studies have shown that forecast errors can be reduced in terms of bias and standard deviation using forecasts and meteorological measurements from one specific meteorological station. For agricultural systems

  18. Europe's First Space Weather Think Tank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lilensten, Jean; Clark, Toby; Belehaki, Anna

    2004-04-01

    A new European intergovernmental action devoted to space weather has been recently approved. This paper describes the political and scientific context in which this action takes place, and the goals of this action, called COST 724.

  19. The fate of chromium during tropical weathering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berger, Alfons; Frei, Robert

    2014-01-01

    . The negatively fractionated δ53Cr values measured in the weathering profile relative to the unaltered tonalitic bedrock characterized by a high temperature magmatic inventory Cr isotope signature are consistent with loss of a positively fractionated Cr(VI) pool formed during weathering. The predicted existence......We performed a mineral, geochemical and Cr–Sr–Pb isotope study on a laterite profile developed on ca. 540 Ma old tonalitic bedrock in Madagascar with special emphasis on the behavior of chromium during tropical weathering. The observed strong depletions of Ca, Si, and P, and enrichment of Fe and Al...... of the soil profile relative to stage one altered saprolite. This gain in Cr is accompanied by decreasing δ53Cr values and can be explained by partial immobilization (possibly by adsorption/coprecipitation on/with Fe-oxy-hydroxides) of mobile Cr(III) during upward transport in the weathering profile...

  20. Effectiveness of external respiratory surrogates for in vivo liver motion estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Kai-Hsiang; Ho, Ming-Chih; Yeh, Chi-Chuan; Chen, Yu-Chien; Lian, Feng-Li; Lin, Win-Li; Yen, Jia-Yush; Chen, Yung-Yaw [Department of Electrical Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan (China); Department of Surgery, National Taiwan University Hospital and College of Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10041, Taiwan (China); Graduate Institute of Biomedical Electronics and Bioinformatics, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan (China); Department of Electrical Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan (China); Institute of Biomedical Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10041, Taiwan (China); Department of Mechanical Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan (China); Department of Electrical Engineering and Graduate Institute of Biomedical Electronics and Bioinformatics, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan (China)

    2012-08-15

    Purpose: Due to low frame rate of MRI and high radiation damage from fluoroscopy and CT, liver motion estimation using external respiratory surrogate signals seems to be a better approach to track liver motion in real-time for liver tumor treatments in radiotherapy and thermotherapy. This work proposes a liver motion estimation method based on external respiratory surrogate signals. Animal experiments are also conducted to investigate related issues, such as the sensor arrangement, multisensor fusion, and the effective time period. Methods: Liver motion and abdominal motion are both induced by respiration and are proved to be highly correlated. Contrary to the difficult direct measurement of the liver motion, the abdominal motion can be easily accessed. Based on this idea, our study is split into the model-fitting stage and the motion estimation stage. In the first stage, the correlation between the surrogates and the liver motion is studied and established via linear regression method. In the second stage, the liver motion is estimated by the surrogate signals with the correlation model. Animal experiments on cases of single surrogate signal, multisurrogate signals, and long-term surrogate signals are conducted and discussed to verify the practical use of this approach. Results: The results show that the best single sensor location is at the middle of the upper abdomen, while multisurrogate models are generally better than the single ones. The estimation error is reduced from 0.6 mm for the single surrogate models to 0.4 mm for the multisurrogate models. The long-term validity of the estimation models is quite satisfactory within the period of 10 min with the estimation error less than 1.4 mm. Conclusions: External respiratory surrogate signals from the abdomen motion produces good performance for liver motion estimation in real-time. Multisurrogate signals enhance estimation accuracy, and the estimation model can maintain its accuracy for at least 10 min. This

  1. Religion and Spirituality in Surrogate Decision Making for Hospitalized Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geros-Willfond, Kristin N; Ivy, Steven S; Montz, Kianna; Bohan, Sara E; Torke, Alexia M

    2016-06-01

    We conducted semi-structured interviews with 46 surrogate decision makers for hospitalized older adults to characterize the role of spirituality and religion in decision making. Three themes emerged: (1) religion as a guide to decision making, (2) control, and (3) faith, death and dying. For religious surrogates, religion played a central role in end of life decisions. There was variability regarding whether God or humans were perceived to be in control; however, beliefs about control led to varying perspectives on acceptance of comfort-focused treatment. We conclude that clinicians should attend to religious considerations due to their impact on decision making.

  2. A Bayesian Surrogate Model for Rapid Time Series Analysis and Application to Exoplanet Observations

    CERN Document Server

    Ford, Eric B; Veras, Dimitri

    2011-01-01

    We present a Bayesian surrogate model for the analysis of periodic or quasi-periodic time series data. We describe a computationally efficient implementation that enables Bayesian model comparison. We apply this model to simulated and real exoplanet observations. We discuss the results and demonstrate some of the challenges for applying our surrogate model to realistic exoplanet data sets. In particular, we find that analyses of real world data should pay careful attention to the effects of uneven spacing of observations and the choice of prior for the "jitter" parameter.

  3. Surrogate pregnancy in a patient who underwent radical hysterectomy and bilateral transposition of ovaries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azem, Foad; Yovel, Israel; Wagman, Israel; Kapostiansky, Rita; Lessing, Joseph B; Amit, Ami

    2003-05-01

    To evaluate IVF-surrogate pregnancy in a patient with ovarian transposition after radical hysterectomy for carcinoma of the cervix. Case report. A maternity hospital in Tel Aviv that is a major tertiary care and referral center. A 29-year-old woman who underwent Wertheim's hysterectomy for carcinoma of the uterine cervix and ovarian transposition before total pelvic irradiation. Standard IVF treatment, transabdominal oocyte retrieval, and transfer to surrogate mother. Outcome of IVF cycle. A twin pregnancy in the first cycle. This is the second reported case of controlled ovarian stimulation and oocyte retrieval performed on a transposed ovary.

  4. Initial Results from the Third Round of Remediated Nitrate Salt Surrogate Formulation and Testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Geoffrey Wayne [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Leonard, Philip [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Hartline, Ernest Leon [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Tian, Hongzhao [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-04-20

    High explosives science and technology (M-7) is currently working on the third round of formulation and testing of Remediated nitrate salt (RNS) surrogates. This report summarizes the calorimetry results from the 15% sWheat mixtures. All formulation and testing was carried out according to PLAN-TA9-2443 Rev B, "Remediated Nitrate Salt (RNS) surrogate formulation and testing standard procedure", released February 16, 2016. Results from the first and second rounds of formulation and testing were documented in memoranda M7-16-6042 and M7-16-6053.

  5. Using serum urate as a validated surrogate end point for flares in patients with gout

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morillon, Melanie B; Stamp, Lisa; Taylor, William;

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Gout is the most common inflammatory arthritis in men over 40 years of age. Long-term urate-lowering therapy is considered a key strategy for effective gout management. The primary outcome measure for efficacy in clinical trials of urate-lowering therapy is serum urate levels......, effectively acting as a surrogate for patient-centred outcomes such as frequency of gout attacks or pain. Yet it is not clearly demonstrated that the strength of the relationship between serum urate and clinically relevant outcomes is sufficiently strong for serum urate to be considered an adequate surrogate...

  6. Effect of a Disease-Specific Planning Intervention on Surrogate Understanding of Patient Goals for Future Medical Treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchhoff, Karin T.; Hammes, Bernard J.; Kehl, Karen A.; Briggs, Linda A.; Brown, Roger L.

    2010-01-01

    Context Patients with life-limiting illnesses, and their families, struggle with complex treatment decisions as these patients approach the last few years of life. Surrogates often do not clearly understand the patient's goals for future medical treatments. Objectives To determine if a disease-specific planning process can improve surrogate understanding of such patient goals for future, medical treatments. Design, Setting, and Participants A multisite randomized controlled trial conducted between January 1, 2004 and July 31, 2007 in 6 outpatient clinics of large community or university health systems in 3 Wisconsin cities. Subjects were patients with either chronic congestive heart failure or chronic renal disease and their surrogate decision makers. Participants had to be competent, English-speaking adults at least 18 years of age. Intervention Trained health professionals conducted a structured, patient-centered interview intended to promote informed decision making and to result in the completion of a document clarifying the goals of the patient with regard to four disease-specific health outcome situations and to the degree of decision-making latitude granted to the surrogate. Measurements Surrogate understanding of patient goals for care with regard to four expected, disease-specific outcomes situations and of the degree of surrogate latitude in decision making. Results Three hundred thirteen patient-surrogate pairs completed the study. As measured by Kappa (κ) scores and in all four situations and in the degree of latitude, intervention group surrogates demonstrated a significantly higher degree of understanding of patient goals than control group surrogates. Intervention group κ scores ranged from 0.61 to 0.78, while control group κ scores ranged from 0.07 to 0.28. Conclusion Surrogates in the intervention group had a significantly better understanding of patient goals and preferences than surrogates in the control group. This finding is the first step

  7. Doubt and belief in physicians' ability to prognosticate during critical illness: the perspective of surrogate decision makers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zier, Lucas S; Burack, Jeffrey H; Micco, Guy; Chipman, Anne K; Frank, James A; Luce, John M; White, Douglas B

    2008-08-01

    Although discussing a prognosis is a duty of physicians caring for critically ill patients, little is known about surrogate decision-makers' beliefs about physicians' ability to prognosticate. We sought to determine: 1) surrogates' beliefs about whether physicians can accurately prognosticate for critically ill patients; and 2) how individuals use prognostic information in their role as surrogate decision-makers. Multicenter study in intensive care units of a public hospital, a tertiary care hospital, and a veterans' hospital. We conducted semistructured interviews with 50 surrogate decision-makers of critically ill patients. We analyzed the interview transcripts using grounded theory methods to inductively develop a framework to describe surrogates' beliefs about physicians' ability to prognosticate. Validation methods included triangulation by multidisciplinary analysis and member checking. Overall, 88% (44 of 50) of surrogates expressed doubt about physicians' ability to prognosticate for critically ill patients. Four distinct themes emerged that explained surrogates' doubts about prognostic accuracy: a belief that God could alter the course of the illness, a belief that predicting the future is inherently uncertain, prior experiences where physicians' prognostications were inaccurate, and experiences with prognostication during the patient's intensive care unit stay. Participants also identified several factors that led to belief in physicians' prognostications, such as receiving similar prognostic estimates from multiple physicians and prior experiences with accurate prognostication. Surrogates' doubts about prognostic accuracy did not prevent them from wanting prognostic information. Instead, most surrogate decision-makers view physicians' prognostications as rough estimates that are valuable in informing decisions, but are not determinative. Surrogates identified the act of prognostic disclosure as a key step in preparing emotionally and practically for the

  8. CRADE OF SAND AND DUST STORM WEATHER

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Niu Ruoyun; Tian Cuiying; Bi Baogui; Yang Keming; Wang Youheng; Tuo Ya; Ding Haifang; Zhang Tairen

    2011-01-01

    Background Sand and dust storm,as one of the main disastrous weathers that affect northern China,not only affect the people health and normal life,but cause the short-term climatic changes due to the direct and indirect radiation of the earth-atmosphere system through the dust floating in the sky.The sand end dust weather and its potential harm on the national economy,ecological environment,social activities and other aspects have aroused worldwide concern.

  9. Space Weather Gets Real—on Smartphones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobiska, W. Kent; Crowley, Geoff; Oh, Seung Jun; Guhathakurta, Madhulika

    2010-10-01

    True to the saying that "a picture is worth a thousand words," society's affinity for visual images has driven innovative efforts to see space weather as it happens. The newest frontiers of these efforts involve applications, or apps, on cellular phones, allowing space weather researchers, operators, and teachers, as well as other interested parties, to have the ability to monitor conditions in real time with just the touch of a button.

  10. Key findings of the national weatherization evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M.A.; Berry, L.G.

    1994-10-01

    In 1990, the U.S. Department of Energy sponsored a comprehensive evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program, the nation`s largest residential energy conservation program. The primary goal of the evaluation was to establish whether the Program meets the objectives of its enabling legislation and fulfills its mission statement, to reduce the heating and cooling costs for low-income families-particularly the elderly, persons with disabilities, and children by improving the energy-efficiency of their homes and ensuring their health and safety. Oak Ridge National Laboratory managed a five-part study which produced a series of documents evaluating the Program. The objective of this document is to summarize the findings of the five-part National Weatherization Evaluation. The five studies were as follows: (1) Network Study-this study characterized the weatherization network`s leveraging, capabilities, procedures, staff, technologies, and innovations; (2) Resources and Population Study-this study profiled low-income weatherization resources, the weatherized population, and the population remaining to be served; (3) Multifamily Study-this study described the nature and extent of weatherization activities in larger multifamily buildings; (4) Single-family Study-this study estimated the national savings and cost- effectiveness of weatherizing single-family and small multifamily dwellings that use natural gas or electricity for space heating; (5) Fuel-Oil Study-this study estimated the savings and cost-effectiveness of weatherizing single-family homes, located in nine northeastern states, that use fuel oil for space heating. This paper provides a brief overview of each study`s purposes, research methods and most important findings.

  11. Dew architectures - Dew annouces the good weather

    OpenAIRE

    Beysens, Daniel; Broggini, Filippo; Milimouk-Melnytchouk, Iryna; Ouazzani, Jalil; Tixier, Nicolas

    2012-01-01

    International audience; Dew is a natural phenomenon that occurs under particular weather conditions (clear nocturnal sky, humid air, low wind) and on a surface specially designed for this purpose (high radiative cooling properties, special architectural design). Depending on the weather conditions and the surface characteristics, the water yield can give up to 0.7 litres per square meter and per night. Although the collection of rain water on roof turns out to be relatively simple, dew harves...

  12. Climate change and extreme events in weather

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.

    monsoon and b) tropical cyclones. Basically the climate of India is domi- nated by the south west monsoon season which accounts for about 75% of the annual rainfall. The extreme weather events occur over India are: Floods, Droughts, Tropical Cyclones..., Heat Waves and Cold Waves, Storms Surges, Hail Storms, Thunderstorms, Dust Storms. Floods, droughts and tropical cyclones have specific significance a far as India is concerned. Floods and droughts are the two sides of the weather phenomena...

  13. Topographic imprint on chemical weathering in deeply weathered soil-mantled landscapes (southern Brazil)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanacker, Veerle; Schoonejans, Jerome; Ameijeiras-Marino, Yolanda; Opfergelt, Sophie; Minella, Jean

    2017-04-01

    The regolith mantle is defined as the thin layer of unconsolidated material overlaying bedrock that contributes to shape the Earth's surface. The development of the regolith mantle in a landscape is the result of in-situ weathering, atmospheric input and downhill transport of weathering products. Bedrock weathering - the physical and chemical transformations of rock to soil - contributes to the vertical development of the regolith layer through downward propagation of the weathering front. Lateral transport of soil particles, aggregates and solutes by diffusive and concentrated particle and solute fluxes result in lateral redistribution of weathering products over the hillslope. In this study, we aim to expand the empirical basis on long-term soil evolution at the landscape scale through a detailed study of soil weathering in subtropical soils. Spatial variability in chemical mass fluxes and weathering intensity were studied along two toposequences with similar climate, lithology and vegetation but different slope morphology. This allowed us to isolate the topographic imprint on chemical weathering and soil development. The toposequences have convexo-concave slope morphology, and eight regolith profiles were analysed involving the flat upslope, steep midslope and flat toeslope part. Our data show a clear topographic imprint on soil development. Along hillslope, the chemical weathering intensity of the regolith profiles increases with distance from the crest. In contrast to the upslope positions, the soils in the basal concavities develop on in-situ and transported regolith. While the chemical weathering extent on the slope convexities (the upslope profiles) is similar for the steep and gentle toposequence, there is a clear difference in the rate of increase of the chemical weathering extent with distance from the crest. The increase of chemical weathering extent along hillslope is highest for the steep toposequence, suggesting that topography enhances soil particle

  14. Seasonal Forecasting of Fire Weather Based on a New Global Fire Weather Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowdy, Andrew J.; Field, Robert D.; Spessa, Allan C.

    2016-01-01

    Seasonal forecasting of fire weather is examined based on a recently produced global database of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) system beginning in 1980. Seasonal average values of the FWI are examined in relation to measures of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results are used to examine seasonal forecasts of fire weather conditions throughout the world.

  15. Introducing GFWED: The Global Fire Weather Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, R. D.; Spessa, A. C.; Aziz, N. A.; Camia, A.; Cantin, A.; Carr, R.; de Groot, W. J.; Dowdy, A. J.; Flannigan, M. D.; Manomaiphiboon, K.; Pappenberger, F.; Tanpipat, V.; Wang, X.

    2015-01-01

    The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is the mostly widely used fire danger rating system in the world. We have developed a global database of daily FWI System calculations, beginning in 1980, called the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED) gridded to a spatial resolution of 0.5 latitude by 2-3 longitude. Input weather data were obtained from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and two different estimates of daily precipitation from rain gauges over land. FWI System Drought Code calculations from the gridded data sets were compared to calculations from individual weather station data for a representative set of 48 stations in North, Central and South America, Europe, Russia,Southeast Asia and Australia. Agreement between gridded calculations and the station-based calculations tended to be most different at low latitudes for strictly MERRA based calculations. Strong biases could be seen in either direction: MERRA DC over the Mato Grosso in Brazil reached unrealistically high values exceeding DCD1500 during the dry season but was too low over Southeast Asia during the dry season. These biases are consistent with those previously identified in MERRAs precipitation, and they reinforce the need to consider alternative sources of precipitation data. GFWED can be used for analyzing historical relationships between fire weather and fire activity at continental and global scales, in identifying large-scale atmosphereocean controls on fire weather, and calibration of FWI-based fire prediction models.

  16. Development of a Global Fire Weather Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, R. D.; Spessa, A. C.; Aziz, N. A.; Camia, A.; Cantin, A.; Carr, R.; de Groot, W. J.; Dowdy, A. J.; Flannigan, M. D.; Manomaiphiboon, K.; Pappenberger, F.; Tanpipat, V.; Wang, X.

    2015-06-01

    The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is the mostly widely used fire danger rating system in the world. We have developed a global database of daily FWI System calculations, beginning in 1980, called the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED) gridded to a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude by 2/3° longitude. Input weather data were obtained from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and two different estimates of daily precipitation from rain gauges over land. FWI System Drought Code calculations from the gridded data sets were compared to calculations from individual weather station data for a representative set of 48 stations in North, Central and South America, Europe, Russia, Southeast Asia and Australia. Agreement between gridded calculations and the station-based calculations tended to be most different at low latitudes for strictly MERRA-based calculations. Strong biases could be seen in either direction: MERRA DC over the Mato Grosso in Brazil reached unrealistically high values exceeding DC = 1500 during the dry season but was too low over Southeast Asia during the dry season. These biases are consistent with those previously identified in MERRA's precipitation, and they reinforce the need to consider alternative sources of precipitation data. GFWED can be used for analyzing historical relationships between fire weather and fire activity at continental and global scales, in identifying large-scale atmosphere-ocean controls on fire weather, and calibration of FWI-based fire prediction models.

  17. Operational Space Weather in USAF Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smithtro, C.; Quigley, S.

    2006-12-01

    Most education programs offering space weather courses are understandably and traditionally heavily weighted with theoretical space physics that is the basis for most of what is researched and modeled. While understanding the theory is a good and necessary grounding for anyone working the field of space weather, few military or commercial jobs employ such theory in real-time operations. The operations sites/centers are much more geared toward use of applied theory-resultant models, tools and products. To ensure its operations centers personnel, commanders, real-time system operators and other customers affected by the space environment are educated on available and soon-to-be operational space weather models and products, the USAF has developed applicable course/lecture material taught at various institutions to include the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) and the Joint Weather Training Complex (335th/TRS/OUA). Less frequent training of operational space weather is available via other venues that will be discussed, and associated course material is also being developed for potential use at the National Security Space Institute (NSSI). This presentation provides an overview of the programs, locations, courses and material developed and/or taught by or for USAF personnel dealing with operational space weather. It also provides general information on student research project results that may be used in operational support, along with observations regarding logistical and professional benefits of teaching such non-theoretical/non-traditional material.

  18. Flight Deck Weather Avoidance Decision Support: Implementation and Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Shu-Chieh; Luna, Rocio; Johnson, Walter W.

    2013-01-01

    Weather related disruptions account for seventy percent of the delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). A key component in the weather plan of the Next Generation of Air Transportation System (NextGen) is to assimilate observed weather information and probabilistic forecasts into the decision process of flight crews and air traffic controllers. In this research we explore supporting flight crew weather decision making through the development of a flight deck predicted weather display system that utilizes weather predictions generated by ground-based radar. This system integrates and presents this weather information, together with in-flight trajectory modification tools, within a cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) prototype. that the CDTI features 2D and perspective 3D visualization models of weather. The weather forecast products that we implemented were the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) and the Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM), both developed by MIT Lincoln Lab. We evaluated the use of CIWS and CWAM for flight deck weather avoidance in two part-task experiments. Experiment 1 compared pilots' en route weather avoidance performance in four weather information conditions that differed in the type and amount of predicted forecast (CIWS current weather only, CIWS current and historical weather, CIWS current and forecast weather, CIWS current and forecast weather and CWAM predictions). Experiment 2 compared the use of perspective 3D and 21/2D presentations of weather for flight deck weather avoidance. Results showed that pilots could take advantage of longer range predicted weather forecasts in performing en route weather avoidance but more research will be needed to determine what combinations of information are optimal and how best to present them.

  19. CCMC: Serving research and space weather communities with unique space weather services, innovative tools and resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Maddox, Marlo

    2015-04-01

    With the addition of Space Weather Research Center (a sub-team within CCMC) in 2010 to address NASA’s own space weather needs, CCMC has become a unique entity that not only facilitates research through providing access to the state-of-the-art space science and space weather models, but also plays a critical role in providing unique space weather services to NASA robotic missions, developing innovative tools and transitioning research to operations via user feedback. With scientists, forecasters and software developers working together within one team, through close and direct connection with space weather customers and trusted relationship with model developers, CCMC is flexible, nimble and effective to meet customer needs. In this presentation, we highlight a few unique aspects of CCMC/SWRC’s space weather services, such as addressing space weather throughout the solar system, pushing the frontier of space weather forecasting via the ensemble approach, providing direct personnel and tool support for spacecraft anomaly resolution, prompting development of multi-purpose tools and knowledge bases, and educating and engaging the next generation of space weather scientists.

  20. The scope of the Weatherization Assistance Program: The weatherized population and the resource base

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, M.; Eisenberg, J.F.; Michels, E. [Economic Opportunity Research Inst., Washington, DC (United States); Witherspoon, M.J. [National Association for State Community Service Programs, Washington, DC (United States); Brown, M.A. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

    1992-05-01

    This study is one of five parts of the US Department of Energy`s national evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). It has three major goals: (1) to enumerate the size and sources of investment in low-income weatherization; (2) to provide a count of the number of low-income units weatherized by all weatherization programs and characterized the type and tenure of those homes; and (3) to document the extent to which the DOE/WAP funding has been expanded though use of external resources.

  1. The scope of the Weatherization Assistance Program: The weatherized population and the resource base

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, M.; Eisenberg, J.F.; Michels, E. (Economic Opportunity Research Inst., Washington, DC (United States)); Witherspoon, M.J. (National Association for State Community Service Programs, Washington, DC (United States)); Brown, M.A. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States))

    1992-05-01

    This study is one of five parts of the US Department of Energy's national evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). It has three major goals: (1) to enumerate the size and sources of investment in low-income weatherization; (2) to provide a count of the number of low-income units weatherized by all weatherization programs and characterized the type and tenure of those homes; and (3) to document the extent to which the DOE/WAP funding has been expanded though use of external resources.

  2. Definitions and validation criteria for biomarkers and surrogate endpoints: development and testing of a quantitative hierarchical levels of evidence schema

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lassere, Marissa N; Johnson, Kent R; Boers, Maarten

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: There are clear advantages to using biomarkers and surrogate endpoints, but concerns about clinical and statistical validity and systematic methods to evaluate these aspects hinder their efficient application. Our objective was to review the literature on biomarkers and surrogates to d...

  3. An Artificial Turf-Based Surrogate Surface Collector for the Direct Measurement of Atmospheric Mercury Dry Deposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper describes the development of a new artificial turf surrogate surface (ATSS) sampler for use in the measurement of mercury (Hg) dry deposition. In contrast to many existing surrogate surface designs, the ATSS utilizes a three-dimensional deposition surface that may more...

  4. 14 CFR 135.213 - Weather reports and forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Weather reports and forecasts. 135.213... Operating Limitations and Weather Requirements § 135.213 Weather reports and forecasts. (a) Whenever a person operating an aircraft under this part is required to use a weather report or forecast, that...

  5. 44 CFR 15.3 - Access to Mt. Weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Access to Mt. Weather. 15.3... HOMELAND SECURITY GENERAL CONDUCT AT THE MT. WEATHER EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE CENTER AND AT THE NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER § 15.3 Access to Mt. Weather. Mt. Weather contains classified material and...

  6. 46 CFR 44.01-13 - Heavy weather plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Heavy weather plan. 44.01-13 Section 44.01-13 Shipping... VOYAGES Administration § 44.01-13 Heavy weather plan. (a) Each heavy weather plan under § 44.01-12(b) must... Inspection. Approval of a heavy weather plan is limited to the current hurricane season. (b) The...

  7. Highlights of Space Weather Services/Capabilities at NASA/GSFC Space Weather Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fok, Mei-Ching; Zheng, Yihua; Hesse, Michael; Kuznetsova, Maria; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Mays, Leila; Chulaki, Anna; Lee, Hyesook

    2012-01-01

    The importance of space weather has been recognized world-wide. Our society depends increasingly on technological infrastructure, including the power grid as well as satellites used for communication and navigation. Such technologies, however, are vulnerable to space weather effects caused by the Sun's variability. NASA GSFC's Space Weather Center (SWC) (http://science.gsfc.nasa.gov//674/swx services/swx services.html) has developed space weather products/capabilities/services that not only respond to NASA's needs but also address broader interests by leveraging the latest scientific research results and state-of-the-art models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC: http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov). By combining forefront space weather science and models, employing an innovative and configurable dissemination system (iSWA.gsfc.nasa.gov), taking advantage of scientific expertise both in-house and from the broader community as well as fostering and actively participating in multilateral collaborations both nationally and internationally, NASA/GSFC space weather Center, as a sibling organization to CCMC, is poised to address NASA's space weather needs (and needs of various partners) and to help enhancing space weather forecasting capabilities collaboratively. With a large number of state-of-the-art physics-based models running in real-time covering the whole space weather domain, it offers predictive capabilities and a comprehensive view of space weather events throughout the solar system. In this paper, we will provide some highlights of our service products/capabilities. In particular, we will take the 23 January and the 27 January space weather events as examples to illustrate how we can use the iSWA system to track them in the interplanetary space and forecast their impacts.

  8. Permanent pixels : building blocks for the longevity of digital surrogates of historical photographs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Horik, M.P.M.

    2005-01-01

    Within the context of long-term access to digital objects in general this dissertation takes the longevity of digital surrogates of historical photographs into consideration. For memory institutes digitisation of analogue source material, such as historical photographs, is an exciting way to open up

  9. PCA-derived respiratory motion surrogates from X-ray angiograms for percutaneous coronary interventions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H. Ma (Hua); G. Dibildox (Gerardo); C. Schultz (Carl); E.S. Regar (Eveline); T.W. van Walsum (Theo)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractPurpose: Intraoperative coronary motion modeling with motion surrogates enables prospective motion prediction in X-ray angiograms (XA) for percutaneous coronary interventions. The motion of coronary arteries is mainly affected by patients breathing and heartbeat. Purpose of our work is t

  10. Testing for nonlinearity in time series: The method of surrogate data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Theiler, J.; Galdrikian, B.; Longtin, A. (Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)); Eubank, S.; Farmer, J.D. (Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States) Santa Fe Inst., NM (United States))

    1991-01-01

    We describe a statistical approach for identifying nonlinearity in time series; in particular, we want to avoid claims of chaos when simpler models (such as linearly correlated noise) can explain the data. The method requires a careful statement of the null hypothesis which characterizes a candidate linear process, the generation of an ensemble of surrogate'' data sets which are similar to the original time series but consistent with the null hypothesis, and the computation of a discriminating statistic for the original and for each of the surrogate data sets. The idea is to test the original time series against the null hypothesis by checking whether the discriminating statistic computed for the original time series differs significantly from the statistics computed for each of the surrogate sets. We present algorithms for generating surrogate data under various null hypotheses, and we show the results of numerical experiments on artificial data using correlation dimension, Lyapunov exponent, and forecasting error as discriminating statistics. Finally, we consider a number of experimental time series -- including sunspots, electroencephalogram (EEG) signals, and fluid convection -- and evaluate the statistical significance of the evidence for nonlinear structure in each case. 56 refs., 8 figs.

  11. Family matters: effects of birth order, culture, and family dynamics on surrogate decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Christopher T; McMahan, Ryan D; Williams, Brie A; Sharma, Rashmi K; Sudore, Rebecca L

    2014-01-01

    Cultural attitudes about medical decision-making and filial expectations may lead some surrogates to experience stress and family conflict. Thirteen focus groups with racially and ethnically diverse English and Spanish speakers from county and Veterans Affairs hospitals, senior centers, and cancer support groups were conducted to describe participants' experiences making serious or end-of-life decisions for others. Filial expectations and family dynamics related to birth order and surrogate decision-making were explored using qualitative, thematic content analysis, and overarching themes from focus group transcripts were identified. The mean age of the 69 participants was 69 ± 14, and 29% were African American, 26% were white, 26% were Asian or Pacific Islander, and 19% were Latino. Seventy percent of participants engaged in unprompted discussions about birth order and family dynamics. Six subthemes were identified within three overarching categories: communication (unspoken expectations and discussion of death as taboo), emotion (emotional stress and feelings of loneliness), and conflict (family conflict and potential solutions to prevent conflict). These findings suggest that birth order and family dynamics can have profound effects on surrogate stress and coping. Clinicians should be aware of potential unspoken filial expectations for firstborns and help facilitate communication between the patient, surrogate, and extended family to reduce stress and conflict.

  12. ASYMPTOTIC SURROGATE CONSTRAINT METHOD AND ITS CONVERGENCEFOR A CLASS OF SEMI-INFINITE PROGRAMMING

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WanZhongping; WuGuoming

    1999-01-01

    A class of constrained semi infinite minimax problem is transformed into a simpleconstrained problem, by means of discretization decoraposirion and maximum entropy method,making use of surrogate constraint, The paper deals with the convergence of this asymptotic aI-proach method.

  13. Designing a Surrogate Fuel for Gas-to-Liquid Derived Diesel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Choudhury, H. A.; Intikhab, S.; Kalakul, Sawitree

    2017-01-01

    loads, diesel fuel surpasses the total hydrocarbon (THC) emissions for both the surrogate and the GTL fuel. No significant variation in CO and CO2 emissions for MI-5, GTL diesel and conventional diesel is observed. Analysis of combustion as well as emission behavior of the fuels helps to understand...

  14. Oxidation of Alkane Rich Gasoline Fuels and their Surrogates in a Motored Engine

    KAUST Repository

    Shankar, Vijai S B

    2015-03-30

    The validation of surrogates formulated using a computational framework by Ahmed et al.[1]for two purely paraffinic gasoline fuels labelled FACE A and FACE C was undertaken in this study. The ability of these surrogate mixtures to be used in modelling LTC engines was accessed by comparison of their low temperature oxidation chemistry with that of the respective parent fuel as well as a PRF based on RON. This was done by testing the surrogate mixtures in a modified Cooperative Fuels Research (CFR) engine running in Controlled Autoignition Mode (CAI) mode. The engine was run at a constant speed of 600 rpm at an equivalence ratio of 0.5 with the intake temperature at 150 °C and a pressure of 98 kPa. The low temperature reactivity of the fuels were studied by varying the compression ratio of the engine from the point were very only small low temperature heat release was observed to a point beyond which auto-ignition of the fuel/air mixture occurred. The apparent heat release rates of different fuels was calculated from the pressure histories using first law analysis and the CA 50 times of the low temperature heat release (LTHR) were compared. The surrogates reproduced the cool flame behavior of the parent fuels better than the PRF across all compression ratios.

  15. Identification of the first surrogate agonists for the G protein-coupled receptor GPR132

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shehata, Mohamed A.; Christensen, Hanna Belcik; Isberg, Vignir;

    2015-01-01

    -arrestin recruitment assay, and thereby identified the first disclosed surrogate GPR132 agonist 1 with a potency of 3.4 μM. This constitutes the first available pharmacological tool for the in vitro characterization of the orphan receptor GPR132. The testing of 32 analogs furthermore identified a number of compounds...

  16. A spinal cord surrogate with nanoscale porosity for in vitro simulations of restorative neurosurgical techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillies, G. T.; Wilhelm, T. D.; Humphrey, J. A. C.; Fillmore, H. L.; Holloway, K. L.; Broaddus, W. C.

    2002-10-01

    The development of strategies for the regrowth of axons through a section of damaged spinal cord could benefit from the availability of an in vitro model in which the potential clinical utility of candidate techniques could be assessed preliminarily. We have designed a spinal cord surrogate for this purpose; it uses 0.6% agarose gel as the parenchymal component and has a fibrous-like longitudinal structure. At this concentration, the pore size distribution of the homogeneous gel ranges from less than 10 nm to more than 1000 nm while the average pore size ranges from 100 to 300 nm. The average pore size is larger than that of the extracellular space in the tissues of the central nervous system, which is of the order of 20 nm. However, the addition of fibres to the surrogate gel model significantly modifies its longitudinal permeability, as assessed by monitoring the distribution of marker dye material during direct infusion into the surrogate. This makes the model useful for evaluating infusion-based techniques that will ultimately be employed for the delivery of growth factors and other agents to the growing axonal processes in injured spinal cord. The role foreseen for this type of surrogate in investigations of the nanomechanics of restorative neurosurgical procedures is discussed.

  17. Incorporating surrogate species and seascape connectivity to improve marine conservation outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olds, Andrew D; Connolly, Rod M; Pitt, Kylie A; Maxwell, Paul S; Aswani, Shankar; Albert, Simon

    2014-08-01

    Conservation focuses on maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, but gaps in our knowledge of species biology and ecological processes often impede progress. For this reason, focal species and habitats are used as surrogates for multispecies conservation, but species-based approaches are not widely adopted in marine ecosystems. Reserves in the Solomon Islands were designed on the basis of local ecological knowledge to conserve bumphead parrotfish (Bolbometopon muricatum) and to protect food security and ecosystem functioning. Bumphead parrotfish are an iconic threatened species and may be a useful surrogate for multispecies conservation. They move across tropical seascapes throughout their life history, in a pattern of habitat use that is shared with many other species. We examined their value as a conservation surrogate and assessed the importance of seascape connectivity (i.e., the physical connectedness of patches in the seascape) among reefs, mangroves, and seagrass to marine reserve performance. Reserves were designed for bumphead parrotfish, but also enhanced the abundance of other species. Integration of local ecological knowledge and seascape connectivity enhanced the abundance of 17 other harvested fish species in local reserves. This result has important implications for ecosystem functioning and local villagers because many of these species perform important ecological processes and provide the foundation for extensive subsistence fisheries. Our findings suggest greater success in maintaining and restoring marine ecosystems may be achieved when they are managed to conserve surrogate species and preserve functional seascape connections. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  18. Determining neutron-capture cross sections via the surrogate reaction technique

    CERN Document Server

    Forssén, C; Escher, J; Hoffman, R D; Kelley, K

    2007-01-01

    Indirect methods play an important role in the determination of nuclear reaction cross sections that are hard to measure directly. In this paper we investigate the feasibility of using the so-called surrogate method to extract neutron-capture cross sections for low energy compound-nuclear reactions in spherical and near-spherical nuclei. We present the surrogate method and develop a statistical nuclear-reaction simulation to explore different approaches to utilize surrogate reaction data. We assess the success of each approach by comparing the extracted cross sections with a predetermined benchmark. In particular, we employ regional systematics of nuclear properties in the 34 <= Z <= 46 region to calculate (n,gamma) cross sections for a series of Zr isotopes, and to simulate a surrogate experiment and the extraction of the desired cross section. We identify one particular approach that may provide very useful estimates of the cross section, and we discuss some of the limitations of the method. General r...

  19. Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate End-points (ECLIPSE)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vestbo, J; Anderson, W; Coxson, H O

    2008-01-01

    computed tomography, biomarker measurement (in blood, sputum, urine and exhaled breath condensate), health outcomes, body impedance, resting oxygen saturation and 6-min walking distance. Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate End-points is the largest study attempting to better...

  20. Role of Volatility in the Development of JP-8 Surrogates for Diesel Engine Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    fuels have also been investigated in different types of experimental systems. Honnet [16] reported that the Aachen (n-decane/1,2,4-trimethylbenzene...indicated that the extinction characteristics of Aachen and modified Aachen (n-dodecane/1,2,4-trimethylbenzene) surrogate fuels agree well with JP-8 in

  1. Refined ambient PM2.5 exposure surrogates and the risk of myocardial infarction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Using a case-crossover study design and conditional logistic regression, we compared the relative odds of transmural (full-wall) myocardial infarction (MI) calculated using exposure surrogates that account for human activity patterns and the indoor transport of ambient PM2....

  2. Thermal Inactivation of Foodborne Enteric Viruses and Their Viral Surrogates in Foods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozkurt, Hayriye; D'Souza, Doris H; Davidson, P Michael

    2015-08-01

    Foodborne viruses, in particular human norovirus and hepatitis A virus, are the most common causes of food-associated infections and foodborne illness outbreaks around the world. Since it is currently not possible to cultivate human noroviruses and the wild-type strain of hepatitis A virus in vitro, the use of a variety of viral surrogates is essential to determine appropriate thermal processing conditions to reduce the risk associated with their contamination of food. Therefore, the objectives of this review are to (i) present pertinent characteristics of enteric foodborne viruses and their viral surrogates, (ii) discuss the viral surrogates currently used in thermal inactivation studies and their significance and value, (iii) summarize available data on thermal inactivation kinetics of enteric viruses, (iv) discuss factors affecting the efficacy of thermal treatment, (v) discuss suggested mechanisms of thermal inactivation, and (vi) provide insights on foodborne enteric viruses and viral surrogates for future studies and industrial applications. The overall goal of this review is to contribute to the development of appropriate thermal processing protocols to ensure safe food for human consumption.

  3. Comparative Numerical Study of Four Biodiesel Surrogates for Application on Diesel 0D Phenomenological Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claude Valery Ngayihi Abbe

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To meet more stringent norms and standards concerning engine performances and emissions, engine manufacturers need to develop new technologies enhancing the nonpolluting properties of the fuels. In that sense, the testing and development of alternative fuels such as biodiesel are of great importance. Fuel testing is nowadays a matter of experimental and numerical work. Researches on diesel engine’s fuel involve the use of surrogates, for which the combustion mechanisms are well known and relatively similar to the investigated fuel. Biodiesel, due to its complex molecular configuration, is still the subject of numerous investigations in that area. This study presents the comparison of four biodiesel surrogates, methyl-butanoate, ethyl-butyrate, methyl-decanoate, and methyl-9-decenoate, in a 0D phenomenological combustion model. They were investigated for in-cylinder pressure, thermal efficiency, and NOx emissions. Experiments were performed on a six-cylinder turbocharged DI diesel engine fuelled by methyl ester (MEB and ethyl ester (EEB biodiesel from wasted frying oil. Results showed that, among the four surrogates, methyl butanoate presented better results for all the studied parameters. In-cylinder pressure and thermal efficiency were predicted with good accuracy by the four surrogates. NOx emissions were well predicted for methyl butanoate but for the other three gave approximation errors over 50%.

  4. Inactivation of HAV and norovirus surrogates within raw shellfish and other foods

    Science.gov (United States)

    High pressure processing can inactivate hepatitis A virus, (HAV) and the human norovirus surrogates, feline calicivirus (FCV) and murine norovirus (MNV), in foods such as oysters, strawberries, and green onions. A 5-min 400-Megapascals (MPa) treatment at 5 degrees C and a 1–min 400-MPa treatment at ...

  5. Inactivation of norovirus surrogates on surfaces and raspberries by steam-ultrasound treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schultz, Anna Charlotte; Uhrbrand, Katrine; Nørrung, Birgit

    2012-01-01

    treatment that combines pressurized steam and high-power ultrasound (steam-ultrasound) was assessed for its efficacy to inactivate human NoV surrogates: coliphage (MS2), feline calicivirus (FCV), and murine norovirus (MNV) inoculated on plastic surfaces and MS2 inoculated on fresh raspberries. The amounts...

  6. Alternative methods to determine infectivity of Tulane virus: a surrogate for human norovirus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culturable animal caliciviruses are widely-used as surrogates for human norovirus (HuNoV), which can not replicate in cells. The infectivity of a culturable virus was traditionally determined by plaque assay and/or 50% tissue culture infectious dose (TCID50) assay, both of which are time-consuming ...

  7. Evaluation and Development of Chemical Kinetic Mechanism Reduction Scheme for Biodiesel and Diesel Fuel Surrogates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poon, Hiew Mun; Ng, Hoon Kiat; Gan, Suyin

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study is to evaluate the existing chemical kinetic mechanism reduction techniques. From here, an appropriate reduction scheme was developed to create compact yet comprehensive surrogate models for both diesel and biodiesel fuels for diesel engine applications. The reduction techni...

  8. A surrogate-based approach for post-genomic partner identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giordano Tony

    2001-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Modern drug discovery is concerned with identification and validation of novel protein targets from among the 30,000 genes or more postulated to be present in the human genome. While protein-protein interactions may be central to many disease indications, it has been difficult to identify new chemical entities capable of regulating these interactions as either agonists or antagonists. Results In this paper, we show that peptide complements (or surrogates derived from highly diverse random phage display libraries can be used for the identification of the expected natural biological partners for protein and non-protein targets. Our examples include surrogates isolated against both an extracellular secreted protein (TNFβ and intracellular disease related mRNAs. In each case, surrogates binding to these targets were obtained and found to contain partner information embedded in their amino acid sequences. Furthermore, this information was able to identify the correct biological partners from large human genome databases by rapid and integrated computer based searches. Conclusions Modified versions of these surrogates should provide agents capable of modifying the activity of these targets and enable one to study their involvement in specific biological processes as a means of target validation for downstream drug discovery.

  9. Measurement of arterial wall thickness as a surrogate marker for atherosclerosis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Groot, E; Hovingh, GK; Wiegman, A; Duriez, P; Smit, AJ; Fruchart, JC; Kastelein, JJP

    2004-01-01

    Large observational studies and atherosclerosis regression trials of lipid-modifying pharmacotherapy have established that intima-media thickness of the carotid and femoral arteries, as measured noninvasively by B-mode ultrasound, is a valid surrogate marker for the progression of atherosclerotic di

  10. Space mapping interpolating surrogates for highly optimized EM-based design of microwave devices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bandler, John; Cheng, Qingsha; Dakroury, Sameh;

    2004-01-01

    A powerful optimization algorithm that incorporates Space Mapping (SM) and the new Output Space Mapping (OSM) to yield highly optimized results in a handful of fine model evaluations is presented. The new method employs an SM-based interpolating surrogate (SMIS) framework that aims at matching th...

  11. Differences in surrogate threshold effect estimates between original and simplified correlation-based validation approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schürmann, Christoph; Sieben, Wiebke

    2016-03-30

    Surrogate endpoint validation has been well established by the meta-analytical correlation-based approach as outlined in the seminal work of Buyse et al. (Biostatistics, 2000). Surrogacy can be assumed if strong associations on individual and study levels can be demonstrated. Alternatively, if an effect on a true endpoint is to be predicted from a surrogate endpoint in a new study, the surrogate threshold effect (STE, Burzykowski and Buyse, Pharmaceutical Statistics, 2006) can be used. In practice, as individual patient data (IPD) are hard to obtain, some authors use only aggregate data and perform simplified regression analyses. We are interested in to what extent such simplified analyses are biased compared with the ones from a full model with IPD. To this end, we conduct a simulation study with IPD and compute STEs from full and simplified analyses for varying data situations in terms of number of studies, correlations, variances and so on. In the scenarios considered, we show that, for normally distributed patient data, STEs derived from ordinary (weighted) linear regression generally underestimate STEs derived from the original model, whereas meta-regression often results in overestimation. Therefore, if individual data cannot be obtained, STEs from meta-regression may be used as conservative alternatives, but ordinary (weighted) linear regression should not be used for surrogate endpoint validation. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Refined ambient PM2.5 exposure surrogates and the risk of myocardial infarction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Using a case-crossover study design and conditional logistic regression, we compared the relative odds of transmural (full-wall) myocardial infarction (MI) calculated using exposure surrogates that account for human activity patterns and the indoor transport of ambient PM2....

  13. Developmental biotechnology for aquaculture, with special reference to surrogate production in teleost fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaha, Etsuro; Saito, Taiju; Goto-Kazeto, Rie; Arai, Katsutoshi

    2007-07-01

    This review introduces surrogate production as a new technique for fish-seed production in aquaculture. Surrogate production in fish is a technique used to obtain the gametes of a certain genotype through the gonad of another genotype. It is achieved by inducing germ-line chimerism between different species during early development. Primordial germ cells (PGCs) are the key material of this technique to induce germ-line chimera. In several species, it has been reported that PGCs differentiated from the blastomeres inherited some maternally supplied mRNA located in the terminal regions of the early cleavage furrows. PGCs from donor species (or strains) are isolated and transplanted into host species to induce the germ-line chimera. Four methods for inducing germ-line chimera are described: blastomere transplantation, blastoderm-graft transplantation, transplantation of PGC from the genital ridge, and transplantation visualised PGC with GFP fluorescence. Several problems preventing the successful induction of germ-line chimera in various fish species are discussed. Surrogate production, however, opens the possibility of efficient fish-seed production and effective breeding and transfer of biodiversity to an aquaculture strain. Conservation and efficient utilisation of genetic resources will be achieved through surrogate production combined with the cryopreservation of PGCs.

  14. Evidence against the use of surrogates for biomonitoring of Neotropical floodplains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Padial, A.A.; Declerck, S.A.J.; De Meester, L.; Bonecker, C.C.; Lansac-Toha, F.A.; Rodrigues, L.C.; Takeda, A.; Train, S.; Velho, L.F.M.; Bini, L.M.S

    2012-01-01

    1. Community concordance measures the level of association between the compositional patterns shown by two groups of organisms. If strong community concordance occurs, one group could be used as a surrogate for another in conservation planning and biodiversity monitoring. In this study, we evaluated

  15. Atmospheric cold plasma iactivation of norovirus surrogates and native microbiota on blueberries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cold plasma (CP) is an emerging, novel, nonthermal technology that can be used for surface decontamination of foods. This study investigated CP technology for the nonthermal inactivation of the human norovirus surrogates, Tulane virus (TV) and Murine Norovirus (MNV), as well as for background microb...

  16. Ovulation Statuses of Surrogate Gilts Are Associated with the Efficiency of Excellent Pig Cloning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huan, Yanjun; Hu, Kui; Xie, Bingteng; Shi, Yongqian; Wang, Feng; Zhou, Yang; Liu, Shichao; Huang, Bo; Zhu, Jiang; Liu, Zhongfeng; He, Yilong; Li, Jingyu; Kong, Qingran; Liu, Zhonghua

    2015-01-01

    Somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT) is an assisted reproductive technique that can produce multiple copies of excellent livestock. However, low cloning efficiency limits the application of SCNT. In this study, we systematically investigated the major influencing factors related to the overall cloning efficiency in pigs. Here, 13620 cloned embryos derived from excellent pigs were transferred into 79 surrogate gilts, and 119 live cloned piglets were eventually generated. During cloning, group of cloned embryos derived from excellent Landrace or Large white pigs presented no significant differences of cleavage and blastocyst rates, blastocyst cell numbers, surrogate pregnancy and delivery rates, average numbers of piglets born and alive and cloning efficiencies, and group of 101-150, 151-200 or 201-250 cloned embryos transferred per surrogate also displayed a similar developmental efficiency. When estrus stage of surrogate gilts was compared, group of embryo transfer on Day 2 of estrus showed significantly higher pregnancy rate, delivery rate, average number of piglets born, average alive piglet number or cloning efficiency than group on Day 1, Day 3, Day 4 or Day 5, respectively (Pcloning efficiency (Pcloning efficiency. And more, follicle puncture for preovulation, not transfer position shallowed for preovulation or deepened for postovulation, significantly improved the average number of piglets alive and cloning efficiency (Pcloning efficiency of excellent pigs, and follicle puncture, not transfer position change, improved cloning efficiency. This work would have important implications in preserving and breeding excellent livestock and improving the overall cloning efficiency.

  17. CME front and severe space weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balan, N.; Skoug, R.; Tulasi Ram, S.; Rajesh, P. K.; Shiokawa, K.; Otsuka, Y.; Batista, I. S.; Ebihara, Y.; Nakamura, T.

    2014-12-01

    Thanks to the work of a number of scientists who made it known that severe space weather can cause extensive social and economic disruptions in the modern high-technology society. It is therefore important to understand what determines the severity of space weather and whether it can be predicted. We present results obtained from the analysis of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), solar energetic particle (SEP) events, interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), CME-magnetosphere coupling, and geomagnetic storms associated with the major space weather events since 1998 by combining data from the ACE and GOES satellites with geomagnetic parameters and the Carrington event of 1859, the Quebec event of 1989, and an event in 1958. The results seem to indicate that (1) it is the impulsive energy mainly due to the impulsive velocity and orientation of IMF Bz at the leading edge of the CMEs (or CME front) that determine the severity of space weather. (2) CMEs having high impulsive velocity (sudden nonfluctuating increase by over 275 km s-1 over the background) caused severe space weather (SvSW) in the heliosphere (failure of the solar wind ion mode of Solar Wind Electron Proton Alpha Monitor in ACE) probably by suddenly accelerating the high-energy particles in the SEPs ahead directly or through the shocks. (3) The impact of such CMEs which also show the IMF Bz southward from the leading edge caused SvSW at the Earth including extreme geomagnetic storms of mean DstMP power outages happened during some of these SvSW events. (4) The higher the impulsive velocity, the more severe the space weather, like faster weather fronts and tsunami fronts causing more severe damage through impulsive action. (5) The CMEs having IMF Bz northward at the leading edge do not seem to cause SvSW on Earth, although, later when the IMF Bz turns southward, they can lead to super geomagnetic storms of intensity (Dstmin) less than even -400 nT.

  18. Daily Weather and Children's Physical Activity Patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remmers, Teun; Thijs, Carel; Timperio, Anna; Salmon, J O; Veitch, Jenny; Kremers, Stef P J; Ridgers, Nicola D

    2017-05-01

    Understanding how the weather affects physical activity (PA) may help in the design, analysis, and interpretation of future studies, especially when investigating PA across diverse meteorological settings and with long follow-up periods. The present longitudinal study first aims to examine the influence of daily weather elements on intraindividual PA patterns among primary school children across four seasons, reflecting day-to-day variation within each season. Second, we investigate whether the influence of weather elements differs by day of the week (weekdays vs weekends), gender, age, and body mass index. PA data were collected by ActiGraph accelerometers for 1 wk in each of four school terms that reflect each season in southeast Australia. PA data from 307 children (age range 8.7-12.8 yr) were matched to daily meteorological variables obtained from the Australian Government's Bureau of Meteorology (maximum temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, day length, and rainfall). Daily PA patterns and their association with weather elements were analyzed using multilevel linear mixed models. Temperature was the strongest predictor of moderate and vigorous PA, followed by solar radiation and humidity. The relation with temperature was curvilinear, showing optimum PA levels at temperatures between 20°C and 22°C. Associations between weather elements on PA did not differ by gender, child's age, or body mass index. This novel study focused on the influence of weather elements on intraindividual PA patterns in children. As weather influences cannot be controlled, knowledge of its effect on individual PA patterns may help in the design of future studies, interpretation of their results, and translation into PA promotion.

  19. Using Artificial Intelligence to Inform Pilots of Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spirkovska, Lilly; Lodha, Suresh K.

    2006-01-01

    An automated system to assist a General Aviation (GA) pilot in improving situational awareness of weather in flight is now undergoing development. This development is prompted by the observation that most fatal GA accidents are attributable to loss of weather awareness. Loss of weather awareness, in turn, has been attributed to the difficulty of interpreting traditional preflight weather briefings and the difficulty of both obtaining and interpreting traditional in-flight weather briefings. The developmental automated system not only improves weather awareness but also substantially reduces the time a pilot must spend in acquiring and maintaining weather awareness.

  20. Revisiting photodynamic therapy dosimetry: reductionist & surrogate approaches to facilitate clinical success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pogue, Brian W.; Elliott, Jonathan T.; Kanick, Stephen C.; Davis, Scott C.; Samkoe, Kimberley S.; Maytin, Edward V.; Pereira, Stephen P.; Hasan, Tayyaba

    2016-04-01

    Photodynamic therapy (PDT) can be a highly complex treatment, with many parameters influencing treatment efficacy. The extent to which dosimetry is used to monitor and standardize treatment delivery varies widely, ranging from measurement of a single surrogate marker to comprehensive approaches that aim to measure or estimate as many relevant parameters as possible. Today, most clinical PDT treatments are still administered with little more than application of a prescribed drug dose and timed light delivery, and thus the role of patient-specific dosimetry has not reached widespread clinical adoption. This disconnect is at least partly due to the inherent conflict between the need to measure and understand multiple parameters in vivo in order to optimize treatment, and the need for expedience in the clinic and in the regulatory and commercialization process. Thus, a methodical approach to selecting primary dosimetry metrics is required at each stage of translation of a treatment procedure, moving from complex measurements to understand PDT mechanisms in pre-clinical and early phase I trials, towards the identification and application of essential dose-limiting and/or surrogate measurements in phase II/III trials. If successful, identifying the essential and/or reliable surrogate dosimetry measurements should help facilitate increased adoption of clinical PDT. In this paper, examples of essential dosimetry points and surrogate dosimetry tools that may be implemented in phase II/III trials are discussed. For example, the treatment efficacy as limited by light penetration in interstitial PDT may be predicted by the amount of contrast uptake in CT, and so this could be utilized as a surrogate dosimetry measurement to prescribe light doses based upon pre-treatment contrast. Success of clinical ALA-based skin lesion treatment is predicted almost uniquely by the explicit or implicit measurements of photosensitizer and photobleaching, yet the individualization of treatment

  1. Revisiting photodynamic therapy dosimetry: reductionist & surrogate approaches to facilitate clinical success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pogue, Brian W; Elliott, Jonathan T; Kanick, Stephen C; Davis, Scott C; Samkoe, Kimberley S; Maytin, Edward V; Pereira, Stephen P; Hasan, Tayyaba

    2016-04-01

    Photodynamic therapy (PDT) can be a highly complex treatment, with many parameters influencing treatment efficacy. The extent to which dosimetry is used to monitor and standardize treatment delivery varies widely, ranging from measurement of a single surrogate marker to comprehensive approaches that aim to measure or estimate as many relevant parameters as possible. Today, most clinical PDT treatments are still administered with little more than application of a prescribed drug dose and timed light delivery, and thus the role of patient-specific dosimetry has not reached widespread clinical adoption. This disconnect is at least partly due to the inherent conflict between the need to measure and understand multiple parameters in vivo in order to optimize treatment, and the need for expedience in the clinic and in the regulatory and commercialization process. Thus, a methodical approach to selecting primary dosimetry metrics is required at each stage of translation of a treatment procedure, moving from complex measurements to understand PDT mechanisms in pre-clinical and early phase I trials, towards the identification and application of essential dose-limiting and/or surrogate measurements in phase II/III trials. If successful, identifying the essential and/or reliable surrogate dosimetry measurements should help facilitate increased adoption of clinical PDT. In this paper, examples of essential dosimetry points and surrogate dosimetry tools that may be implemented in phase II/III trials are discussed. For example, the treatment efficacy as limited by light penetration in interstitial PDT may be predicted by the amount of contrast uptake in CT, and so this could be utilized as a surrogate dosimetry measurement to prescribe light doses based upon pre-treatment contrast. Success of clinical ALA-based skin lesion treatment is predicted almost uniquely by the explicit or implicit measurements of photosensitizer and photobleaching, yet the individualization of treatment

  2. Weatherization and Indoor Air Quality: Measured Impacts in Single Family Homes Under the Weatherization Assistance Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pigg, Scott [Energy Center of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Cautley, Dan [Energy Center of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Francisco, Paul [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States); Hawkins, Beth A [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Brennan, Terry M [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2014-09-01

    This report summarizes findings from a national field study of indoor air quality parameters in homes treated under the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). The study involved testing and monitoring in 514 single-family homes (including mobile homes) located in 35 states and served by 88 local weatherization agencies.

  3. Sr isotope evolution during chemical weathering of granites -- impact of relative weathering rates of minerals

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The Sr isotopic systematics in the weathering profiles of biotite granite and granite porphyry in southern Jiangxi Province were investigated. The results showed that during the chemical weathering of granites, remarked fractionation occurred between Rb and Sr. During the early stages of chemical weathering of granites, the released Sr/Si and Sr/Ca ratios are larger than those of the parent rocks, and the leaching rate of Sr is higher than those of Si, Ca, K, Rb, etc. Dynamic variations in relative weathering rates of the main Sr-contributing minerals led to fluctuation with time in 87Sr/86Sr ratios of inherent and released Sr in the weathering crust of granite. Successive weathering of biotite, plagioclase and K-feldspar made 87Sr/86Sr ratios in the weathering residues show such a fluctuation trend as to decrease first, increase, and then decrease again till they maintain stable. This work further indicates that when Sr isotopes are used to trace biogeochemical processes on both the catchment and global scales, one must seriously take account of the prefer-ential release of Sr from dissolving solid phase and the fluctuation of 87Sr/86Sr ratios caused by the variations of relative weathering rates of Sr-contributing minerals.

  4. WRF-Fire: coupled weather-wildland fire modeling with the weather research and forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janice L. Coen; Marques Cameron; John Michalakes; Edward G. Patton; Philip J. Riggan; Kara M. Yedinak

    2012-01-01

    A wildland fire behavior module (WRF-Fire) was integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) public domain numerical weather prediction model. The fire module is a surface fire behavior model that is two-way coupled with the atmospheric model. Near-surface winds from the atmospheric model are interpolated to a finer fire grid and used, with fuel properties...

  5. Quantitative GPCR and ion channel transcriptomics in primary alveolar macrophages and macrophage surrogates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Groot-Kormelink Paul J

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Alveolar macrophages are one of the first lines of defence against invading pathogens and play a central role in modulating both the innate and acquired immune systems. By responding to endogenous stimuli within the lung, alveolar macrophages contribute towards the regulation of the local inflammatory microenvironment, the initiation of wound healing and the pathogenesis of viral and bacterial infections. Despite the availability of protocols for isolating primary alveolar macrophages from the lung these cells remain recalcitrant to expansion in-vitro and therefore surrogate cell types, such as monocyte derived macrophages and phorbol ester-differentiated cell lines (e.g. U937, THP-1, HL60 are frequently used to model macrophage function. Methods The availability of high throughput gene expression technologies for accurate quantification of transcript levels enables the re-evaluation of these surrogate cell types for use as cellular models of the alveolar macrophage. Utilising high-throughput TaqMan arrays and focussing on dynamically regulated families of integral membrane proteins, we explore the similarities and differences in G-protein coupled receptor (GPCR and ion channel expression in alveolar macrophages and their widely used surrogates. Results The complete non-sensory GPCR and ion channel transcriptome is described for primary alveolar macrophages and macrophage surrogates. The expression of numerous GPCRs and ion channels whose expression were hitherto not described in human alveolar macrophages are compared across primary macrophages and commonly used macrophage cell models. Several membrane proteins known to have critical roles in regulating macrophage function, including CXCR6, CCR8 and TRPV4, were found to be highly expressed in macrophages but not expressed in PMA-differentiated surrogates. Conclusions The data described in this report provides insight into the appropriate choice of cell models for

  6. Mitigating Errors in External Respiratory Surrogate-Based Models of Tumor Position

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malinowski, Kathleen T. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD (United States); Fischell Department of Bioengineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); McAvoy, Thomas J. [Fischell Department of Bioengineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering and Institute of Systems Research, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); George, Rohini [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD (United States); Dieterich, Sonja [Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA (United States); D' Souza, Warren D., E-mail: wdsou001@umaryland.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD (United States); Fischell Department of Bioengineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)

    2012-04-01

    Purpose: To investigate the effect of tumor site, measurement precision, tumor-surrogate correlation, training data selection, model design, and interpatient and interfraction variations on the accuracy of external marker-based models of tumor position. Methods and Materials: Cyberknife Synchrony system log files comprising synchronously acquired positions of external markers and the tumor from 167 treatment fractions were analyzed. The accuracy of Synchrony, ordinary-least-squares regression, and partial-least-squares regression models for predicting the tumor position from the external markers was evaluated. The quantity and timing of the data used to build the predictive model were varied. The effects of tumor-surrogate correlation and the precision in both the tumor and the external surrogate position measurements were explored by adding noise to the data. Results: The tumor position prediction errors increased during the duration of a fraction. Increasing the training data quantities did not always lead to more accurate models. Adding uncorrelated noise to the external marker-based inputs degraded the tumor-surrogate correlation models by 16% for partial-least-squares and 57% for ordinary-least-squares. External marker and tumor position measurement errors led to tumor position prediction changes 0.3-3.6 times the magnitude of the measurement errors, varying widely with model algorithm. The tumor position prediction errors were significantly associated with the patient index but not with the fraction index or tumor site. Partial-least-squares was as accurate as Synchrony and more accurate than ordinary-least-squares. Conclusions: The accuracy of surrogate-based inferential models of tumor position was affected by all the investigated factors, except for the tumor site and fraction index.

  7. Evaluating β Diversity as a Surrogate for Species Representation at Fine Scale.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Beier

    Full Text Available Species turnover or β diversity is a conceptually attractive surrogate for conservation planning. However, there has been only 1 attempt to determine how well sites selected to maximize β diversity represent species, and that test was done at a scale too coarse (2,500 km2 sites to inform most conservation decisions. We used 8 plant datasets, 3 bird datasets, and 1 mammal dataset to evaluate whether sites selected to span β diversity will efficiently represent species at finer scale (sites sizes < 1 ha to 625 km2. We used ordinations to characterize dissimilarity in species assemblages (β diversity among plots (inventory data or among grid cells (atlas data. We then selected sites to maximize β diversity and used the Species Accumulation Index, SAI, to evaluate how efficiently the surrogate (selecting sites for maximum β diversity represented species in the same taxon. Across all 12 datasets, sites selected for maximum β diversity represented species with a median efficiency of 24% (i.e., the surrogate was 24% more effective than random selection of sites, and an interquartile range of 4% to 41% efficiency. β diversity was a better surrogate for bird datasets than for plant datasets, and for atlas datasets with 10-km to 14-km grid cells than for atlas datasets with 25-km grid cells. We conclude that β diversity is more than a mere descriptor of how species are distributed on the landscape; in particular β diversity might be useful to maximize the complementarity of a set of sites. Because we tested only within-taxon surrogacy, our results do not prove that β diversity is useful for conservation planning. But our results do justify further investigation to identify the circumstances in which β diversity performs well, and to evaluate it as a cross-taxon surrogate.

  8. Compositional effects on PAH and soot formation in counterflow diffusion flames of gasoline surrogate fuels

    KAUST Repository

    Park, Sungwoo

    2017-02-05

    Gasoline surrogate fuels are widely used to understand the fundamental combustion properties of complex refinery gasoline fuels. In this study, the compositional effects on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and soot formation were investigated experimentally for gasoline surrogate mixtures comprising n-heptane, iso-octane, and toluene in counterflow diffusion flames. A comprehensive kinetic model for the gasoline surrogate mixtures was developed to accurately predict the fuel oxidation along with the formation of PAHs and soot in flames. This combined model was first tested against ignition delay times and laminar burning velocities data. The proposed model for the formation and growth of PAHs up to coronene (C24H12) was based on previous studies and was tested against existing and present new experimental data. Additionally, in the accompanied soot model, PAHs with sizes larger than (including) pyrene were used for the inception of soot particles, followed by particle coagulations and PAH condensation/chemical reactions on soot surfaces. The major pathways for the formation of PAHs were also identified for the surrogate mixtures. The model accurately captures the synergistic PAH formation characteristics observed experimentally for n-heptane/toluene and iso-octane/toluene binary mixtures. Furthermore, the present experimental and modeling results also elucidated different trends in the formation of larger PAHs and soot between binary n-heptane/iso-octane and ternary n-heptane/iso-octane/toluene mixtures. Propargyl radicals (C3H3) were shown to be important in the formation and growth of PAHs for n-heptane/iso-octane mixtures when the iso-octane concentration increased; however, reactions involving benzyl radicals (C6H5CH2) played a significant role in the formation of PAHs for n-heptane/iso-octane/toluene mixtures. These results indicated that the formation of PAHs and subsequently soot was strongly affected by the composition of gasoline surrogate mixtures.

  9. A case study on the use of appropriate surrogates for antecedent moisture conditions (AMCs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. A. Ali

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available While a large number of non-linear hillslope and catchment rainfall-runoff responses have been attributed to the temporal variability in antecedent moisture conditions (AMCs, two problems emerge: 1 the difficulty of measuring AMCs, and 2 the absence of explicit guidelines for the choice of surrogates or proxies for AMCs. This paper aims at determining whether or not multiple surrogates for AMCs should be used in order not to bias our understanding of a system hydrological behaviour. We worked in a small forested catchment, the Hermine, where soil moisture has been measured at 121 different locations at four depths on 16 occasions. Without making any assumption on active processes, we used various linear and nonlinear regression models to evaluate the point-scale temporal relations between actual soil moisture contents and selected meteorological-based surrogates for AMCs. We then mapped the nature of the "best fit" model to identify 1 spatial clusters of soil moisture monitoring sites whose hydrological behaviour was similar, and 2 potential topographic influences on these behaviours. Two conclusions stood out. Firstly, it was shown that the sole reference to AMCs indices traditionally used in catchment hydrology, namely antecedent rainfall amounts summed over periods of seven or ten days, would have led to an incomplete understanding of the Hermine catchment dynamics. Secondly, the relationships between point-scale soil moisture content and surrogates for AMCs were not spatially homogeneous, thus revealing a mosaic of linear and nonlinear catchment "active" and "contributing" sources whose location was often controlled by surface terrain attributes or the topography of a soil-confining layer interface. These results represent a step forward in developing a hydrological conceptual model for the Hermine catchment as they indicate depth-specific processes and spatially-variable triggering conditions. Further investigations are, however, necessary

  10. Surrogate assisted multidisciplinary design optimization for an all-electric GEO satellite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Renhe; Liu, Li; Long, Teng; Liu, Jian; Yuan, Bin

    2017-09-01

    State-of-the-art all-electric geostationary earth orbit (GEO) satellites use electric thrusters to execute all propulsive duties, which significantly differ from the traditional all-chemical ones in orbit-raising, station-keeping, radiation damage protection, and power budget, etc. Design optimization task of an all-electric GEO satellite is therefore a complex multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) problem involving unique design considerations. However, solving the all-electric GEO satellite MDO problem faces big challenges in disciplinary modeling techniques and efficient optimization strategy. To address these challenges, we presents a surrogate assisted MDO framework consisting of several modules, i.e., MDO problem definition, multidisciplinary modeling, multidisciplinary analysis (MDA), and surrogate assisted optimizer. Based on the proposed framework, the all-electric GEO satellite MDO problem is formulated to minimize the total mass of the satellite system under a number of practical constraints. Then considerable efforts are spent on multidisciplinary modeling involving geosynchronous transfer, GEO station-keeping, power, thermal control, attitude control, and structure disciplines. Since orbit dynamics models and finite element structural model are computationally expensive, an adaptive response surface surrogate based optimizer is incorporated in the proposed framework to solve the satellite MDO problem with moderate computational cost, where a response surface surrogate is gradually refined to represent the computationally expensive MDA process. After optimization, the total mass of the studied GEO satellite is decreased by 185.3 kg (i.e., 7.3% of the total mass). Finally, the optimal design is further discussed to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed framework to cope with the all-electric GEO satellite system design optimization problems. This proposed surrogate assisted MDO framework can also provide valuable references for other all

  11. 'Tissue surrogates' as a model for archival formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Carol B; Cunningham, Robert E; O'Leary, Timothy J; Mason, Jeffrey T

    2007-08-01

    High-throughput proteomic studies of archival formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissues have the potential to be a powerful tool for examining the clinical course of disease. However, advances in FFPE tissue-based proteomics have been hampered by inefficient methods to extract proteins from archival tissue and by an incomplete knowledge of formaldehyde-induced modifications in proteins. To help address these problems, we have developed a procedure for the formation of 'tissue surrogates' to model FFPE tissues. Cytoplasmic proteins, such as lysozyme or ribonuclease A, at concentrations approaching the protein content in whole cells, are fixed with 10% formalin to form gelatin-like plugs. These plugs have sufficient physical integrity to be processed through graded alcohols, xylene, and embedded in paraffin according to standard histological procedures. In this study, we used tissue surrogates formed from one or two proteins to evaluate extraction protocols for their ability to quantitatively extract proteins from the surrogates. Optimal protein extraction was obtained using a combination of heat, a detergent, and a protein denaturant. The addition of a reducing agent did not improve protein recovery; however, recovery varied significantly with pH. Protein extraction of >80% was observed for pH 4 buffers containing 2% (w/v) sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) when heated at 100 degrees C for 20 min, followed by incubation at 60 degrees C for 2 h. SDS-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis of the extracted proteins revealed that the surrogate extracts contained a mixture of monomeric and multimeric proteins, regardless of the extraction protocol employed. Additionally, protein extracts from surrogates containing carbonic anhydrase:lysozyme (1:2 mol/mol) had disproportionate percentages of lysozyme, indicating that selective protein extraction in complex multiprotein systems may be a concern in proteomic studies of FFPE tissues.

  12. Establishing Denudation Chronology through Weathering Geochronology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riffel, S. B.; Vasconcelos, P. M.; Farley, K. A.; Carmo, I. O.

    2011-12-01

    Planar landforms - erosion surfaces - are used as temporal markers in denudation chronology. These surfaces are interpreted as the result of long-term weathering and denudation controlled by a specific base level within a given time-interval characterized by long-term tectonic stability. The presence of several planar landforms at distinct elevations is interpreted as evidence for distinct denudation events, separated by periods of tectonic reactivation and crustal uplift. We selected an area in the Paraná-La Plata basin, southern Brazil (25°S lat.) to investigate if the application of weathering geochronology by the 40Ar/39Ar and (U-Th)/He methods could permit differentiating different elevation landsurfaces. We dated supergene Mn oxyhydroxides by 40Ar/39Ar geochronology and coexisting supergene Fe oxyhydroxides by the (U-Th)/He method from one of the three regional landsurfaces - The First, Second, and Third Paraná plateaus - previously identified in this area. Two sites were sampled from the Second Paraná Plateau: a ferricrust at Serra das Almas (7 hand specimens of goethite at 1080 m of altitude) and deeply weathered ferricretes and saprolites at Vila Velha (11 hand specimens of cryptomelane and 14 of goethite at 910 m of altitude). The Serra das Almas sites hosts a stratified weathering profile with ferricrust, and mottle zone. The Vila Velha site results from intense weathering that led to the precipitation of well-crystallized supergene minerals precipitated within fractures in the saprolites. The geochronological results are correlatable between the two sites and the two distinct methods (40Ar/39Ar and (U-Th)/He), and they reveal three generations of weathering and mineral precipitation: Late Eocene-Oligocene, Early Miocene, and Pleistocene. The geochronological results suggested that the Second Paraná Plateau formed by regional erosion during the Oligocene, and that this landsurface has been continuously exposed to weathering and erosion since then

  13. Training Early Career Space Weather Researchers and other Space Weather Professionals at the CISM Space Weather Summer School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, N. A.; Hughes, W.

    2011-12-01

    This talk will outline the organization of a summer school designed to introduce young professions to a sub-discipline of geophysics. Through out the 10 year life time of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) the CISM Team has offered a two week summer school that introduces new graduate students and other interested professional to the fundamentals of space weather. The curriculum covers basic concepts in space physics, the hazards of space weather, and the utility of computer models of the space environment. Graduate students attend from both inside and outside CISM, from all the sub-disciplines involved in space weather (solar, heliosphere, geomagnetic, and aeronomy), and from across the nation and around the world. In addition, between 1/4 and 1/3 of the participants each year are professionals involved in space weather in some way, such as: forecasters from NOAA and the Air Force, Air Force satellite program directors, NASA specialists involved in astronaut radiation safety, and representatives from industries affected by space weather. The summer school has adopted modern pedagogy that has been used successfully at the undergraduate level. A typical daily schedule involves three morning lectures followed by an afternoon lab session. During the morning lectures, student interaction is encouraged using "Timeout to Think" questions and peer instruction, along with question cards for students to ask follow up questions. During the afternoon labs students, working in groups of four, answer thought provoking questions using results from simulations and observation data from a variety of source. Through the interactions with each other and the instructors, as well as social interactions during the two weeks, students network and form bonds that will last them through out their careers. We believe that this summer school can be used as a model for summer schools in a wide variety of disciplines.

  14. Space Weather Studies at Istanbul Technical University

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaymaz, Zerefsan

    2016-07-01

    This presentation will introduce the Upper Atmosphere and Space Weather Laboratory of Istanbul Technical University (ITU). It has been established to support the educational needs of the Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics in 2011 to conduct scientific research in Space Weather, Space Environment, Space Environment-Spacecraft Interactions, Space instrumentation and Upper Atmospheric studies. Currently the laboratory has some essential infrastructure and the most instrumentation for ionospheric observations and ground induced currents from the magnetosphere. The laboratory has two subunits: SWIFT dealing with Space Weather Instrumentation and Forecasting unit and SWDPA dealing with Space Weather Data Processing and Analysis. The research area covers wide range of upper atmospheric and space science studies from ionosphere, ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling, magnetic storms and magnetospheric substorms, distant magnetotail, magnetopause and bow shock studies, as well as solar and solar wind disturbances and their interaction with the Earth's space environment. We also study the spacecraft environment interaction and novel plasma instrument design. Several scientific projects have been carried out in the laboratory. Operational objectives of our laboratory will be carried out with the collaboration of NASA's Space Weather Laboratory and the facilities are in the process of integration to their prediction services. Educational and research objectives, as well as the examples from the research carried out in our laboratory will be demonstrated in this presentation.

  15. ESA situational awareness of space weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luntama, Juha-Pekka; Glover, Alexi; Keil, Ralf; Kraft, Stefan; Lupi, Adriano

    2016-07-01

    ESA SSA Period 2 started at the beginning of 2013 and will last until the end of 2016. For the Space Weather Segment, transition to Period 2 introduced an increasing amount of development of new space weather service capability in addition to networking existing European assets. This transition was started already towards the end of SSA Period 1 with the initiation of the SSA Space Weather Segment architecture definition studies and activities enhancing existing space weather assets. The objective of Period 2 has been to initiate SWE space segment developments in the form of hosted payload missions and further expand the federated service network. A strong focus has been placed on demonstration and testing of European capabilities in the range of SWE service domains with a view to establishing core products which can form the basis of SWE service provision during SSA Period 3. This focus has been particularly addressed in the SSA Expert Service Centre (ESC) Definition and Development activity that was started in September 2015. This presentation will cover the current status of the SSA SWE Segment and the achievements during SSA Programme Periods 1 and 2. Particular attention is given to the federated approach that allow building the end user services on the best European expertise. The presentation will also outline the plans for the Space Weather capability development in the framework of the ESA SSA Programme in 2017-2020.

  16. Visually Comparing Weather Features in Forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinan, P Samuel; Meyer, Miriah

    2016-01-01

    Meteorologists process and analyze weather forecasts using visualization in order to examine the behaviors of and relationships among weather features. In this design study conducted with meteorologists in decision support roles, we identified and attempted to address two significant common challenges in weather visualization: the employment of inconsistent and often ineffective visual encoding practices across a wide range of visualizations, and a lack of support for directly visualizing how different weather features relate across an ensemble of possible forecast outcomes. In this work, we present a characterization of the problems and data associated with meteorological forecasting, we propose a set of informed default encoding choices that integrate existing meteorological conventions with effective visualization practice, and we extend a set of techniques as an initial step toward directly visualizing the interactions of multiple features over an ensemble forecast. We discuss the integration of these contributions into a functional prototype tool, and also reflect on the many practical challenges that arise when working with weather data.

  17. Iron isotopic fractionation during continental weathering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fantle, Matthew S.; DePaolo, Donald J.

    2003-10-01

    The biological activity on continents and the oxygen content of the atmosphere determine the chemical pathways through which Fe is processed at the Earth's surface. Experiments have shown that the relevant chemical pathways fractionate Fe isotopes. Measurements of soils, streams, and deep-sea clay indicate that the {sup 56}Fe/{sup 54}Fe ratio ({delta}{sup 56}Fe relative to igneous rocks) varies from +1{per_thousand} for weathering residues like soils and clays, to -3{per_thousand} for dissolved Fe in streams. These measurements confirm that weathering processes produce substantial fractionation of Fe isotopes in the modern oxidizing Earth surface environment. The results imply that biologically-mediated processes, which preferentially mobilize light Fe isotopes, are critical to Fe chemistry in weathering environments, and that the {delta}{sup 56}Fe of marine dissolved Fe should be variable and negative. Diagenetic reduction of Fe in marine sediments may also be a significant component of the global Fe isotope cycle. Iron isotopes provide a tracer for the influence of biological activity and oxygen in weathering processes through Earth history. Iron isotopic fractionation during weathering may have been smaller or absent in an oxygen-poor environment such as that of the early Precambrian Earth.

  18. Infiltration as Ventilation: Weather-Induced Dilution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sherman, Max H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Turner, William J.N. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Walker, Iain S. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2011-06-01

    The purpose of outdoor air ventilation is to dilute or remove indoor contaminants to which occupants are exposed. It can be provided by mechanical or natural means. In most homes, especially older homes, weather-driven infiltration provides the dominant fraction of the total ventilation. As we seek to provide good indoor air quality at minimum energy cost, it is important to neither over-ventilate nor under-ventilate. Thus, it becomes critically important to evaluate correctly the contribution infiltration makes to the total outdoor air ventilation rate. Because weather-driven infiltration is dependent on building air leakage and weather-induced pressure differences, a given amount of air leakage will provide different amounts of infiltration. Varying rates of infiltration will provide different levels of contaminant dilution and hence effective ventilation. This paper derives these interactions and then calculates the impact of weather-driven infiltration for different climates. A new “N-factor” is introduced to provide a convenient method for calculating the ventilation contribution of infiltration for over 1,000 locations across North America. The results of this work could be used in indoor air quality standards (specifically ASHRAE 62.2) to account for the contribution of weather-driven infiltration towards the dilution of indoor pollutants.

  19. Weather-centric rangeland revegetation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardegree, Stuart P; Abatzoglou, John T.; Brunson, Mark W; Germino, Matthew; Hegewisch, Katherine C; Moffet, Corey A; Pilliod, David; Roundy, Bruce A.; Boehm, Alex R; Meredith, Gwendwr R

    2017-01-01

    Invasive annual weeds negatively impact ecosystem services and pose a major conservation threat on semiarid rangelands throughout the western United States. Rehabilitation of these rangelands is challenging due to interannual climate and subseasonal weather variability that impacts seed germination, seedling survival and establishment, annual weed dynamics, wildfire frequency, and soil stability. Rehabilitation and restoration outcomes could be improved by adopting a weather-centric approach that uses the full spectrum of available site-specific weather information from historical observations, seasonal climate forecasts, and climate-change projections. Climate data can be used retrospectively to interpret success or failure of past seedings by describing seasonal and longer-term patterns of environmental variability subsequent to planting. A more detailed evaluation of weather impacts on site conditions may yield more flexible adaptive-management strategies for rangeland restoration and rehabilitation, as well as provide estimates of transition probabilities between desirable and undesirable vegetation states. Skillful seasonal climate forecasts could greatly improve the cost efficiency of management treatments by limiting revegetation activities to time periods where forecasts suggest higher probabilities of successful seedling establishment. Climate-change projections are key to the application of current environmental models for development of mitigation and adaptation strategies and for management practices that require a multidecadal planning horizon. Adoption of new weather technology will require collaboration between land managers and revegetation specialists and modifications to the way we currently plan and conduct rangeland rehabilitation and restoration in the Intermountain West.

  20. Review on space weather in Latin America. 2. The research networks ready for space weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dasso, Sergio; Gonzalez-Esparza, J. Americo

    2016-11-01

    The present work is the second of a three-part review of space weather in Latin America, specifically observing its evolution in three countries (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico). This work comprises a summary of scientific challenges in space weather research that are considered to be open scientific questions and how they are being addressed in terms of instrumentation by the international community, including the Latin American groups. We also provide an inventory of the networks and collaborations being constructed in Latin America, including details on the data processing, capabilities and a basic description of the resulting variables. These instrumental networks currently used for space science research are gradually being incorporated into the space weather monitoring data pipelines as their data provides key variables for monitoring and forecasting space weather, which allow these centers to monitor space weather and issue watches, warnings and alerts.