WorldWideScience

Sample records for surprisingly large impact

  1. The Surprising Impact of Seat Location on Student Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perkins, Katherine K.; Wieman, Carl E.

    2005-01-01

    Every physics instructor knows that the most engaged and successful students tend to sit at the front of the class and the weakest students tend to sit at the back. However, it is normally assumed that this is merely an indication of the respective seat location preferences of weaker and stronger students. Here we present evidence suggesting that in fact this may be mixing up the cause and effect. It may be that the seat selection itself contributes to whether the student does well or poorly, rather than the other way around. While a number of studies have looked at the effect of seat location on students, the results are often inconclusive, and few, if any, have studied the effects in college classrooms with randomly assigned seats. In this paper, we report on our observations of a large introductory physics course in which we randomly assigned students to particular seat locations at the beginning of the semester. Seat location during the first half of the semester had a noticeable impact on student success in the course, particularly in the top and bottom parts of the grade distribution. Students sitting in the back of the room for the first half of the term were nearly six times as likely to receive an F as students who started in the front of the room. A corresponding but less dramatic reversal was evident in the fractions of students receiving As. These effects were in spite of many unusual efforts to engage students at the back of the class and a front-to-back reversal of seat location halfway through the term. These results suggest there may be inherent detrimental effects of large physics lecture halls that need to be further explored.

  2. Electron impact ionization of heavy ions: some surprises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Younger, S.M.

    1986-01-01

    This paper reports the results of calculations of electron impact ionization cross sections for a variety of heavy ions using a distorted wave Born-exchange approximation. The target is described by a Hartree-Fock wavefunction. The scattering matrix element is represented by a triple partial wave expansion over incident, scattered, and ejected (originally bound) continuum states. These partial waves are computed in the potentials associated with the initial target (incident and scattered waves) and the residual ion (ejected waves). A Gauss integration was performed over the distribution of energy between the two final state continuum electrons. For ionization of closed d- and f-subshells, the ejected f-waves were computed in frozen-core term-dependent Hartree-Fock potentials, which include the strong repulsive contribution in singlet terms which arises from the interaction of an excited orbital with an almost closed shell. Ground state correlation was included in some calculations of ionization of d 10 subshells

  3. Ontological Surprises

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leahu, Lucian

    2016-01-01

    a hybrid approach where machine learning algorithms are used to identify objects as well as connections between them; finally, it argues for remaining open to ontological surprises in machine learning as they may enable the crafting of different relations with and through technologies.......This paper investigates how we might rethink design as the technological crafting of human-machine relations in the context of a machine learning technique called neural networks. It analyzes Google’s Inceptionism project, which uses neural networks for image recognition. The surprising output...

  4. Surprise Trips

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korn, Matthias; Kawash, Raghid; Andersen, Lisbet Møller

    2010-01-01

    We report on a platform that augments the natural experience of exploration in diverse indoor and outdoor environments. The system builds on the theme of surprises in terms of user expectations and finding points of interest. It utilizes physical icons as representations of users' interests...... and as notification tokens to alert users when they are within proximity of a surprise. To evaluate the concept, we developed mock-ups, a video prototype and conducted a wizard-of-oz user test for a national park in Denmark....

  5. Charming surprise

    CERN Multimedia

    Antonella Del Rosso

    2011-01-01

    The CP violation in charm quarks has always been thought to be extremely small. So, looking at particle decays involving matter and antimatter, the LHCb experiment has recently been surprised to observe that things might be different. Theorists are on the case. The study of the physics of the charm quark was not in the initial plans of the LHCb experiment, whose letter “b” stands for “beauty quark”. However, already one year ago, the Collaboration decided to look into a wider spectrum of processes that involve charm quarks among other things. The LHCb trigger allows a lot of these processes to be selected, and, among them, one has recently shown interesting features. Other experiments at b-factories have already performed the same measurement but this is the first time that it has been possible to achieve such high precision, thanks to the huge amount of data provided by the very high luminosity of the LHC. “We have observed the decay modes of the D0, a pa...

  6. Charming surprise

    CERN Multimedia

    Antonella Del Rosso

    2011-01-01

    The CP violation in charm quarks has always been thought to be extremely small. So, looking at particle decays involving matter and antimatter, the LHCb experiment has recently been surprised to observe that things might be different. Theorists are on the case.   The study of the physics of the charm quark was not in the initial plans of the LHCb experiment, whose letter “b” stands for “beauty quark”. However, already one year ago, the Collaboration decided to look into a wider spectrum of processes that involve charm quarks among other things. The LHCb trigger allows a lot of these processes to be selected, and, among them, one has recently shown interesting features. Other experiments at b-factories have already performed the same measurement but this is the first time that it has been possible to achieve such high precision, thanks to the huge amount of data provided by the very high luminosity of the LHC. “We have observed the decay modes of t...

  7. Surprise, Recipes for Surprise, and Social Influence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loewenstein, Jeffrey

    2018-02-07

    Surprising people can provide an opening for influencing them. Surprises garner attention, are arousing, are memorable, and can prompt shifts in understanding. Less noted is that, as a result, surprises can serve to persuade others by leading them to shifts in attitudes. Furthermore, because stories, pictures, and music can generate surprises and those can be widely shared, surprise can have broad social influence. People also tend to share surprising items with others, as anyone on social media has discovered. This means that in addition to broadcasting surprising information, surprising items can also spread through networks. The joint result is that surprise not only has individual effects on beliefs and attitudes but also collective effects on the content of culture. Items that generate surprise need not be random or accidental. There are predictable methods or recipes for generating surprise. One such recipe is discussed, the repetition-break plot structure, to explore the psychological and social possibilities of examining surprise. Recipes for surprise offer a useful means for understanding how surprise works and offer prospects for harnessing surprise to a wide array of ends. Copyright © 2017 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  8. Health impacts of large dams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lerer, L.B.

    1999-01-01

    Large dams have been criticized because of their negative environmental and social impacts. Public health interest largely has focused on vector-borne diseases, such as schistosomiasis, associated with reservoirs and irrigation projects. Large dams also influence health through changes in water and food security, increases in communicable diseases, and the social disruption caused by construction and involuntary resettlement. Communities living in close proximity to large dams often do not benefit from water transfer and electricity generation revenues. A comprehensive health component is required in environmental and social impact assessments for large dam projects

  9. Surprising phenomena at the surface of solids: complex molecule emission after impact of ions or of energetic photons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Beyec, Y.

    1990-01-01

    The vanishing of large mass molecules, by particle or photon impact is an unexpected behavior of the matter which allows to study the medium answer to the interaction. This phenomenon has several applications and gives rise development of analysis scientific instrumentation for non volatile compounds as the time of flight mass spectrometers. - In this report, the point is made about the induced desorption by rapid heavy ions [fr

  10. The Impact of a Surprise Dividend Increase on a Stocks Performance : the Analysis of Companies Listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Słoński

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The reaction of marginal investors to the announcement of a surprise dividend increase has been measured. Although field research is performed on companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, the paper has important theoretical implications. Valuation theory gives many clues for the interpretation of changes in dividends. At the start of the literature review, the assumption of the irrelevance of dividends (to investment decisions is described. This assumption is the basis for up-to-date valuation procedures leading to fundamental and fair market valuation of equity (shares. The paper is designed to verify whether the market value of stock is immune to the surprise announcement of a dividend increase. This study of the effect of a surprise dividend increase gives the chance to partially isolate such an event from dividend changes based on long-term expectations. The result of the research explicitly shows that a surprise dividend increase is on average welcomed by investors (an average abnormal return of 2.24% with an associated p-value of 0.001. Abnormal returns are realized by investors when there is a surprise increase in a dividend payout. The subsample of relatively high increases in a dividend payout enables investors to gain a 3.2% return on average. The results show that valuation models should be revised to take into account a possible impact of dividend changes on investors behavior. (original abstract

  11. Electronic and atomic impacts on large clusters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gspann, J.

    1982-01-01

    Describing first the generation and properties of molecular beams of large Van der Waals clusters such as speed distribution, cluster size distribution, and internal temperature of the clusters, the review then features the results of electronic impacts on large clusters: metastable electronic cluster excitations, ejection of positive cluster ions of less than 100 atoms from much larger parent clusters, and ionization of the large clusters. Atomic impacts at thermal energies are treated with respect to the scattering cross section of the clusters, their drag coefficient in free molecular flow, and the peculiarities of impacts on helium clusters of either isotope. (Auth.)

  12. The environmental impact of large dams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Razvan, E.

    1992-01-01

    The campaigns of conservationist groups against dams are generally based on rather emotional issues. This paper puts the situation in a more rational perspective, by analysing the various claims which tend to be put forward concerning the impacts of large dams, examining the validity of the arguments, looking at ways in which any adverse effects can be mitigated, and presenting the complexity of the problems. (author)

  13. Electron impact ionization of large krypton clusters

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Shao-Hui; Li Ru-Xin; Ni Guo-Quan; Xu Zhi-Zhan

    2004-01-01

    We show that the detection of ionization of very large van der Waals clusters in a pulsed jet or a beam can be realized by using a fast ion gauge. Rapid positive feedback electron impact ionization and fragmentation processes,which are initially ignited by electron impact ionization of the krypton clusters with the electron current of the ion gauge, result in the appearance of a progressional oscillation-like ion spectrum, or just of a single fast event under critical conditions. Each line in the spectrum represents a correlated explosion or avalanche ionization of the clusters.The phenomena have been analysed qualitatively along with a Rayleigh scattering experiment of the corresponding cluster jet.

  14. Mass Estinctions Caused by Large Bolide Impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lavarez, Luis W.

    1987-01-01

    In this talk, I will describe the wealth of evidence that has forced my colleagues and me to conclude that the great mass extinctions, 65 million years ago, were caused by a large bolide impact on the earth. Bolide is a new word to most people, and it means any piece of solar system debris, such as a meteorite, asteroid, or comet nucleus. As I will show, the bolide responsible for the extinction of most of the then existing species, including the dinosaurs, was about 10 kilometers in diameter.

  15. Surprise... Surprise..., An Empirical Investigation on How Surprise is Connected to Customer Satisfaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Vanhamme (Joëlle)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractThis research investigates the specific influence of the emotion of surprise on customer transaction-specific satisfaction. Four empirical studies-two field studies (a diary study and a cross section survey) and two experiments-were conducted. The results show that surprise positively

  16. More surprises in the global greenhouse: Human health impacts from recent toxic marine aerosol formations, due to centennial alterations of world-wide coastal food webs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, J J; Lenes, J M; Weisberg, R H; Zheng, L; Hu, C; Fanning, K A; Snyder, R; Smith, J

    2017-03-15

    Reductions of zooplankton biomasses and grazing pressures were observed during overfishing-induced trophic cascades and concurrent oil spills at global scales. Recent phytoplankton increments followed, once Fe-, P-, and N-nutrient limitations of commensal diazotrophs and dinoflagellates were also eliminated by respective human desertification, deforestation, and eutrophication during climate changes. Si-limitation of diatoms instead ensued during these last anthropogenic perturbations of agricultural effluents and sewage loadings. Consequently, ~15% of total world-wide annual asthma trigger responses, i.e. amounting to ~45 million adjacent humans during 2004, resulted from brevetoxin and palytoxin poisons in aerosol forms of western boundary current origins. They were denoted by greater global harmful algal bloom [HAB] abundances and breathing attacks among sea-side children during prior decadal surveys of asthma prevalence, compiled here in ten paired shelf ecosystems of western and eutrophied boundary currents. Since 1965, such inferred onshore fluxes of aerosolized DOC poisons of HABs may have served as additional wind-borne organic carriers of toxic marine MeHg, phthalate, and DDT/DDE vectors, traced by radio-iodine isotopes to potentially elicit carcinomas. During these exchanges, as much as 40% of mercury poisonings may instead have been effected by inhalation of collateral HAB-carried marine neurotoxic aerosols of MeHg, not just from eating marine fish. Health impacts in some areas were additional asthma and pneumonia episodes, as well as endocrine disruptions among the same adjacent humans, with known large local rates of thyroid cancers, physician-diagnosed pulmonary problems, and ubiquitous high indices of mercury in hair, pesticides in breast milk, and phthalates in urine. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. More surprises in the global greenhouse: Human health impacts from recent toxic marine aerosol formations, due to centennial alterations of world-wide coastal food webs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walsh, J.J.; Lenes, J.M.; Weisberg, R.H.; Zheng, L.; Hu, C.; Fanning, K.A.; Snyder, R.; Smith, J.

    2017-01-01

    Reductions of zooplankton biomasses and grazing pressures were observed during overfishing-induced trophic cascades and concurrent oil spills at global scales. Recent phytoplankton increments followed, once Fe-, P-, and N-nutrient limitations of commensal diazotrophs and dinoflagellates were also eliminated by respective human desertification, deforestation, and eutrophication during climate changes. Si-limitation of diatoms instead ensued during these last anthropogenic perturbations of agricultural effluents and sewage loadings. Consequently, ~ 15% of total world-wide annual asthma trigger responses, i.e. amounting to ~ 45 million adjacent humans during 2004, resulted from brevetoxin and palytoxin poisons in aerosol forms of western boundary current origins. They were denoted by greater global harmful algal bloom [HAB] abundances and breathing attacks among sea-side children during prior decadal surveys of asthma prevalence, compiled here in ten paired shelf ecosystems of western and eutrophied boundary currents. Since 1965, such inferred onshore fluxes of aerosolized DOC poisons of HABs may have served as additional wind-borne organic carriers of toxic marine MeHg, phthalate, and DDT/DDE vectors, traced by radio-iodine isotopes to potentially elicit carcinomas. During these exchanges, as much as 40% of mercury poisonings may instead have been effected by inhalation of collateral HAB-carried marine neurotoxic aerosols of MeHg, not just from eating marine fish. Health impacts in some areas were additional asthma and pneumonia episodes, as well as endocrine disruptions among the same adjacent humans, with known large local rates of thyroid cancers, physician-diagnosed pulmonary problems, and ubiquitous high indices of mercury in hair, pesticides in breast milk, and phthalates in urine. - Highlights: • Oil spills, heavy metals, and overfishing decimated zooplankton grazers • Desert expansions and eutrophication concurrently fueled diazotrophs to set free

  18. Surprise as a design strategy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ludden, G.D.S.; Schifferstein, H.N.J.; Hekkert, P.P.M.

    2008-01-01

    Imagine yourself queuing for the cashier’s desk in a supermarket. Naturally, you have picked the wrong line, the one that does not seem to move at all. Soon, you get tired of waiting. Now, how would you feel if the cashier suddenly started to sing? Many of us would be surprised and, regardless of

  19. Surprising Ripple Effects: How Changing the SAT Score-Sending Policy for Low-Income Students Impacts College Access and Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, Michael; Mbekeani, Preeya P.; Nipson, Margaret M.; Page, Lindsay C.

    2017-01-01

    Subtle policy adjustments can induce relatively large "ripple effects." We evaluate a College Board initiative that increased the number of free SAT score reports available to low-income students and changed the time horizon for using these score reports. Using a difference-in-differences analytic strategy, we estimate that targeted…

  20. A surprising palmar nevus: A case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rana Rafiei

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Raised palmar or plantar nevus especially in white people is an unusual feature. We present an uncommon palmar compound nevus in a 26-year-old woman with a large diameter (6 mm which had a collaret-shaped margin. In histopathologic evaluation intralymphatic protrusions of nevic nests were noted. This case was surprising to us for these reasons: size, shape, location and histopathology of the lesion. Palmar nevi are usually junctional (flat and below 3 mm diameter and intra lymphatic protrusion or invasion in nevi is an extremely rare phenomenon.

  1. Planetary Structures And Simulations Of Large-scale Impacts On Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swift, Damian; El-Dasher, B.

    2009-09-01

    The impact of large meteroids is a possible cause for isolated orogeny on bodies devoid of tectonic activity. On Mars, there is a significant, but not perfect, correlation between large, isolated volcanoes and antipodal impact craters. On Mercury and the Moon, brecciated terrain and other unusual surface features can be found at the antipodes of large impact sites. On Earth, there is a moderate correlation between long-lived mantle hotspots at opposite sides of the planet, with meteoroid impact suggested as a possible cause. If induced by impacts, the mechanisms of orogeny and volcanism thus appear to vary between these bodies, presumably because of differences in internal structure. Continuum mechanics (hydrocode) simulations have been used to investigate the response of planetary bodies to impacts, requiring assumptions about the structure of the body: its composition and temperature profile, and the constitutive properties (equation of state, strength, viscosity) of the components. We are able to predict theoretically and test experimentally the constitutive properties of matter under planetary conditions, with reasonable accuracy. To provide a reference series of simulations, we have constructed self-consistent planetary structures using simplified compositions (Fe core and basalt-like mantle), which turn out to agree surprisingly well with the moments of inertia. We have performed simulations of large-scale impacts, studying the transmission of energy to the antipodes. For Mars, significant antipodal heating to depths of a few tens of kilometers was predicted from compression waves transmitted through the mantle. Such heating is a mechanism for volcanism on Mars, possibly in conjunction with crustal cracking induced by surface waves. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  2. Research of Impact Load in Large Electrohydraulic Load Simulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongguang Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The stronger impact load will appear in the initial phase when the large electric cylinder is tested in the hardware-in-loop simulation. In this paper, the mathematical model is built based on AMESim, and then the reason of the impact load is investigated through analyzing the changing tendency of parameters in the simulation results. The inhibition methods of impact load are presented according to the structural invariability principle and applied to the actual system. The final experimental result indicates that the impact load is inhibited, which provides a good experimental condition for the electric cylinder and promotes the study of large load simulator.

  3. Impact of New large Aircraft on Airport Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-03-01

    The object of this project is to assess the impact of the introduction of proposed new large aircraft (NLA) on current airport design standards and administered by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). This report identifies several key design a...

  4. Some Surprising Introductory Physics Facts and Numbers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallmann, A. James

    2016-01-01

    In the entertainment world, people usually like, and find memorable, novels, short stories, and movies with surprise endings. This suggests that classroom teachers might want to present to their students examples of surprising facts associated with principles of physics. Possible benefits of finding surprising facts about principles of physics are…

  5. The mechanics of large meteoroid impacts in the earth's oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melosh, H. J.

    1982-01-01

    The sequence of events subsequent to the impact of a large meteoroid in an ocean differs in several respects from an impact on land. Even if the meteoroid is large enough to produce a crater on the sea floor (that is, larger than a few km in diameter), the presence of water affects the character of the early-time events. The principal difference between land and oceanic impacts is the expansion of shock-vaporized water following an oceanic impact. A steam explosion follows the meteoroid's deposition of energy in the target. Shocked water expands from an initial pressure of 3 to 6 Mbar for 20-30 km/second impacts, ejecting water vapor and dust from the vaporized meteoroid several hundred km into the atmosphere. The violent vapor plume thus formed may explain how dust with a dominantly meteoritic composition can be dispersed to form a world-wide dust layer, as required by the Alvarez hypothesis.

  6. Vortex-ring-induced large bubble entrainment during drop impact

    KAUST Repository

    Thoraval, Marie-Jean

    2016-03-29

    For a limited set of impact conditions, a drop impacting onto a pool can entrap an air bubble as large as its own size. The subsequent rise and rupture of this large bubble plays an important role in aerosol formation and gas transport at the air-sea interface. The large bubble is formed when the impact crater closes up near the pool surface and is known to occur only for drops that are prolate at impact. Herein we use experiments and numerical simulations to show that a concentrated vortex ring, produced in the neck between the drop and the pool, controls the crater deformations and pinchoff. However, it is not the strongest vortex rings that are responsible for the large bubbles, as they interact too strongly with the pool surface and self-destruct. Rather, it is somewhat weaker vortices that can deform the deeper craters, which manage to pinch off the large bubbles. These observations also explain why the strongest and most penetrating vortex rings emerging from drop impacts are not produced by oblate drops but by more prolate drop shapes, as had been observed in previous experiments.

  7. Evidence from Impact Crater Observations for Few Large Impacts on the Moon 0.8-1.7 Ga

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchoff, M. R.; Bottke, W. F.; Marchi, S.; Chapman, C. R.; Enke, B.

    2012-12-01

    Our Moon is a keystone for understanding the inner solar system impact flux through time, because it is the only body for which we have crater size-frequency distributions (SFDs) through most of bombardment history and radiometric ages of probable associated terrains. Even so, the bombardment rate over the last 3.5 Gyr is poorly understood. According to the spatial density of sub-km craters on dated lunar terrains, the lunar impact flux has been roughly constant over this interval [e.g., 1 and references therein]. If so, one may expect that craters with diameter (D) > 50 km should also be equally dispersed in time over the last 3.5 Gyr. Surprisingly, our new work indicates this may not be so. We have compiled SFDs for small, superposed craters with D~0.6-15 km on the original floors of several previously designated Copernican and Eratothenian craters (USGS Geological Atlas of the Moon and [2]) with D > 50 km using JMARS. Using these data we compute the large craters' formation model ages with the Model Production Function chronology developed by Marchi et al. [3]. Many of these craters, especially on the farside (e.g., Sharnov, Birkeland), can now be suitably examined only because of the excellent LROC imaging (we use the Wide Angle Camera mosaic). As a test of our methods, we calculated the model age of the 55 km crater Aristillus (34°N, 1°E), a relatively young crater thought to have showered the Apollo 15 landing site with ejecta. Interestingly, our model age of 2.2 ± 0.6 Ga is surprisingly consistent with a 2.1 Ga-old impact-derived clast (radiometric age) returned by the Apollo 15 astronauts [4]. We find that nearly all of our computed ages for the large craters are older than indicated by previous work, with very few having ages younger than 3 Ga. Reasons for these discrepancies include (i) use of poor resolution Lunar Orbiter images (especially away from the near side) and (ii) application of the unreliable "DL" method, which involves simplified

  8. Impacts of Large Scale Wind Penetration on Energy Supply Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Kabouris

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Large penetration of Renewable Energy Sources (RES impacts Energy Supply Industry (ESI in many aspects leading to a fundamental change in electric power systems. It raises a number of technical challenges to the Transmission System Operators (TSOs, Distribution System Operators (DSOs and Wind Turbine Generators (WTG constructors. This paper aims to present in a thorough and coherent way the redrawn picture for Energy Systems under these conditions. Topics related to emergent technical challenges, technical solutions required and finally the impact on ESI due to large wind power penetration, are analyzed. Finally, general conclusions are extracted about the ESI current and future state and general directions are recommended.

  9. Attention to impact pathways in EISs of large dam projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brismar, Anna

    2004-01-01

    The importance of addressing cumulative environmental impacts in Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) of large development projects is increasingly underlined. However, cumulative impacts are generated through complex impact pathways, involving multiple root causes and lower and higher order effects, interlinked by cause-effect relationships. Consideration to potential impact pathways may thus be difficult without appropriate analytical methods, expertise, and supportive Environmental Impact Assessment guidelines and terms-of-references (TOR). This paper presents the results of an analysis of six EISs prepared for large dam projects between 1994 and 2001. The objective was to analyze if, how, and to what extent potential impact pathways involved in the generation of dam-related cumulative impacts have been addressed in the analyzed material. For this purpose, a theoretical framework was developed, which identifies four key root causes, their potential effects, and associated cause-effect relationships. The analysis revealed various shortcomings. Important imbalances were found in the degree of attention given to effects of different categories. Lower order effects received greater attention than higher order, and the potential effects of reservoir filling were more extensively attended to than those of flow blockage, storage, and regulation. Most importantly, little effort was made to carefully explain the potential impact pathways involved; root causes were often referred to in general terms only, and potential pathways leading up to an anticipated higher order effect or following upon an expected lower order effect were often inadequately addressed or ignored. Probable reasons for the discovered shortcomings are discussed and recommendations are presented for improving the World Bank EIA guidelines for large dam projects

  10. [Impacts of large hydropower station on benthic algal communities].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Xing-Huan; Jiang, Wan-Xiang; Li, Feng-Qing; Tang, Tao; Duan, Shu-Gui; Cai, Qing-Hua

    2009-07-01

    To investigate the impacts of large hydropower station in Gufu River on benthic algae, monthly samplings were conducted from September 2004 to June 2007 at the site GF04 which was impacted by the hydropower station, with the site GL03 in Gaolan River as reference. During sampling period, no significant differences were observed in the main physicochemical variables between GF04 and GL03, but the hydrodynamics differed significantly. GL03 was basically at a status of slow flow; while GF04, owing to the discharging from the reservoir, was at a riffle status during more than 60% of the sampling period. Such a difference in hydrodynamics induced significant differences in the community similarity of benthic algae and the relative abundance of unattached diatoms, erect diatoms, and stalked diatoms between GF04 and GL03, which could better reflect the impacts of irregular draw-off by large hydropower station on river eco-system.

  11. The role of surprise in satisfaction judgements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanhamme, J.; Snelders, H.M.J.J.

    2001-01-01

    Empirical findings suggest that surprise plays an important role in consumer satisfaction, but there is a lack of theory to explain why this is so. The present paper provides explanations for the process through which positive (negative) surprise might enhance (reduce) consumer satisfaction. First,

  12. Impact parameter dynamics in quantum theory in large angle scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andriyanov, A.A.

    1975-01-01

    High energy behaviour of a free particle Green's function is studied for construction of the scattering amplitude. The main part of the Green's function is determined by eikonal scattering along the mean moment and by the total scattering along the transfered momentum. This ''impact'' approximation may be included as a first approximation in the iteration scheme for the scattering amplitude along the mean momentum, i.e. the ''impact'' perturbation theory. With the help of the ''impact'' approximation an expansion of the scattering amplitude in the impact parameter depending on interaction is obtained. These expansions are more correct than the eikonal expansions at large angle scattering. The results are illustrated grafically foe the exponential and the Yukawa potentials

  13. Large-scale impact cratering on the terrestrial planets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grieve, R.A.F.

    1982-01-01

    The crater densities on the earth and moon form the basis for a standard flux-time curve that can be used in dating unsampled planetary surfaces and constraining the temporal history of endogenic geologic processes. Abundant evidence is seen not only that impact cratering was an important surface process in planetary history but also that large imapact events produced effects that were crucial in scale. By way of example, it is noted that the formation of multiring basins on the early moon was as important in defining the planetary tectonic framework as plate tectonics is on the earth. Evidence from several planets suggests that the effects of very-large-scale impacts go beyond the simple formation of an impact structure and serve to localize increased endogenic activity over an extended period of geologic time. Even though no longer occurring with the frequency and magnitude of early solar system history, it is noted that large scale impact events continue to affect the local geology of the planets. 92 references

  14. Large impact events and atmospheric evolution on the terrestrial planets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grinspoon, D.H.

    1989-01-01

    The first task undertaken is the characterization of the impact rates in the inner solar system during the present time, and during the first billion years of Solar System history when the flux was changing rapidly. Once defined, these fluxes are used to model the long term cumulative effect of multiple impacts on planetary atmospheres. The implications of cometary impacts on evolution of the water and deuterium abundances on Venus are examined. The short lifetime of water on Venus suggests that the water abundance is in quasi-steady-state balance between loss by escape and replenishment by infall. In addition, the observed deuterium-to-hydrogen ratio on Venus is consistent with a steady state and does not necessarily imply a past water excess. Results are presented of a model incorporating a stochastic cometary source and nonthermal escape of hydrogen that produces the observed water abundance and D/H ratio. The stochastic variability of each of these quantities is shown to be large. Water on Venus is likely to be in a near steady state mediated by large comet impacts. The early history of water on the planet has been obscured by a history of random impacts. A study of the effects of impact-generated dust clouds on the primitive Earth leads to the conclusion that such clouds were significant perturbers of the early climate. The Earth was shrouded by an optically-thick dust cloud for ∼150-250 m.y.. During this time the surface temperature was equal to the planetary equilibrium temperature unless significant heating by impacts or surface heat flow existed beneath the dust cloud. The epoch of continuous dust shrouding was followed by a period of stochastically intermittent dust clouds occurring at greater intervals as the early intense bombardment subsided towards the present day flux

  15. Climate Change as a Predictable Surprise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bazerman, M.H.

    2006-01-01

    In this article, I analyze climate change as a 'predictable surprise', an event that leads an organization or nation to react with surprise, despite the fact that the information necessary to anticipate the event and its consequences was available (Bazerman and Watkins, 2004). I then assess the cognitive, organizational, and political reasons why society fails to implement wise strategies to prevent predictable surprises generally and climate change specifically. Finally, I conclude with an outline of a set of response strategies to overcome barriers to change

  16. Distribution, Statistics, and Resurfacing of Large Impact Basins on Mercury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fassett, Caleb I.; Head, James W.; Baker, David M. H.; Chapman, Clark R.; Murchie, Scott L.; Neumann, Gregory A.; Oberst, Juergen; Prockter, Louise M.; Smith, David E.; Solomon, Sean C.; hide

    2012-01-01

    The distribution and geological history of large impact basins (diameter D greater than or equal to 300 km) on Mercury is important to understanding the planet's stratigraphy and surface evolution. It is also informative to compare the density of impact basins on Mercury with that of the Moon to understand similarities and differences in their impact crater and basin populations [1, 2]. A variety of impact basins were proposed on the basis of geological mapping with Mariner 10 data [e.g. 3]. This basin population can now be re-assessed and extended to the full planet, using data from the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft. Note that small-to- medium-sized peak-ring basins on Mercury are being examined separately [4, 5]; only the three largest peak-ring basins on Mercury overlap with the size range we consider here. In this study, we (1) re-examine the large basins suggested on the basis of Mariner 10 data, (2) suggest additional basins from MESSENGER's global coverage of Mercury, (3) assess the size-frequency distribution of mercurian basins on the basis of these global observations and compare it to the Moon, and (4) analyze the implications of these observations for the modification history of basins on Mercury.

  17. A toolkit for detecting technical surprise.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trahan, Michael Wayne; Foehse, Mark C.

    2010-10-01

    The detection of a scientific or technological surprise within a secretive country or institute is very difficult. The ability to detect such surprises would allow analysts to identify the capabilities that could be a military or economic threat to national security. Sandia's current approach utilizing ThreatView has been successful in revealing potential technological surprises. However, as data sets become larger, it becomes critical to use algorithms as filters along with the visualization environments. Our two-year LDRD had two primary goals. First, we developed a tool, a Self-Organizing Map (SOM), to extend ThreatView and improve our understanding of the issues involved in working with textual data sets. Second, we developed a toolkit for detecting indicators of technical surprise in textual data sets. Our toolkit has been successfully used to perform technology assessments for the Science & Technology Intelligence (S&TI) program.

  18. Large Field Photogrammetry Techniques in Aircraft and Spacecraft Impact Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littell, Justin D.

    2010-01-01

    The Landing and Impact Research Facility (LandIR) at NASA Langley Research Center is a 240 ft. high A-frame structure which is used for full-scale crash testing of aircraft and rotorcraft vehicles. Because the LandIR provides a unique capability to introduce impact velocities in the forward and vertical directions, it is also serving as the facility for landing tests on full-scale and sub-scale Orion spacecraft mass simulators. Recently, a three-dimensional photogrammetry system was acquired to assist with the gathering of vehicle flight data before, throughout and after the impact. This data provides the basis for the post-test analysis and data reduction. Experimental setups for pendulum swing tests on vehicles having both forward and vertical velocities can extend to 50 x 50 x 50 foot cubes, while weather, vehicle geometry, and other constraints make each experimental setup unique to each test. This paper will discuss the specific calibration techniques for large fields of views, camera and lens selection, data processing, as well as best practice techniques learned from using the large field of view photogrammetry on a multitude of crash and landing test scenarios unique to the LandIR.

  19. Governance Impact Assessment on Large Infrastructure Project (LIP Delivery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. A. Zarewa

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The linkage of failures of many projects, including Large Infrastructure Projects (LIPs, to governance problems by previous studies implies that governance impacts projects’ performance. Identification and understanding of the impacts have therefore become necessary in order to ensure that projects are governed in a way that will ensure their successful delivery. This study assessed impact of governance on delivery of Large Infrastructure Projects (LIPs through a three phase research approach. The first phase involved literature review followed by semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders/role players in the governance of eight LIPs in different locations in Nigeria in the second phase. A thematic data analysis of the study’s findings was finally conducted in the third phase to identify themes and sub-themes after which conclusions were drawn. The study established that governance impacts LIPs delivery both positively and negatively depending on how the governance is approached. Four LIPs were successful due to proper initiation, setting aside funds for the projects at the onset, proactive risk management, top management support, and simple governance policies and structures. Intuitive initiation on political exigencies, tying funding to erratic sources of funding without contingency arrangement, Procuring Authorities’ (PAs disregard for due process and consultants’ advice, failure of a Procuring Authority (PA to meet contractual obligations and change of government were identified by the study as major governance aspects that led to the abandonment of 4 LIPs. The study concluded that there was a need for significant improvement and standardisation of approaches to governance of LIPs particularly in developing countries like Nigeria and accordingly recommends the development of a governance framework containing guidelines, including sanctions for violators, to guide the governance of the projects in the country.

  20. Surprisal analysis and probability matrices for rotational energy transfer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levine, R.D.; Bernstein, R.B.; Kahana, P.; Procaccia, I.; Upchurch, E.T.

    1976-01-01

    The information-theoretic approach is applied to the analysis of state-to-state rotational energy transfer cross sections. The rotational surprisal is evaluated in the usual way, in terms of the deviance of the cross sections from their reference (''prior'') values. The surprisal is found to be an essentially linear function of the energy transferred. This behavior accounts for the experimentally observed exponential gap law for the hydrogen halide systems. The data base here analyzed (taken from the literature) is largely computational in origin: quantal calculations for the hydrogenic systems H 2 +H, He, Li + ; HD+He; D 2 +H and for the N 2 +Ar system; and classical trajectory results for H 2 +Li + ; D 2 +Li + and N 2 +Ar. The surprisal analysis not only serves to compact a large body of data but also aids in the interpretation of the results. A single surprisal parameter theta/subR/ suffices to account for the (relative) magnitude of all state-to-state inelastic cross sections at a given energy

  1. The environmental impact of the use of large wind turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, P. T.

    The existing data base on the environmental impact of large wind energy conversion systems (WECS) is explored. The maximum blade throw distance has been calculated at 850 m, with a 5% probability of more than 300 m. Good design and inspection procedures reduce the risk. Ice throw can be prevented by aircraft deicing techniques, but detectors are still necessary. TV interference is ameliorated by the use of composite blades and directional antennas, by relocating the nearst transmission or relay station, or by introduction of cable TV. Microwave transmission effects can be avoided by careful siting of WECS in a favorable line of sight whenever within 1 km of a transmitter. Visual impact studies have produced few adverse opinions. Noise has not proved an intractable problem, although 30 dB levels have been exceeded 2100 m downwind of the Mod 2 WECS. Further studies are necessary on the effects of heightened ground turbulence produced by large WECS. It is expected that few birds will be harmed by slowly rotating blades in the birds' natural domain, a projection confirmed by sporadic studies. Finally, aircraft collisions are regarded as unlikely and actual land use, mostly confined to rural areas, is minimal.

  2. Surprise: a belief or an emotion?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellers, Barbara; Fincher, Katrina; Drummond, Caitlin; Bigony, Michelle

    2013-01-01

    Surprise is a fundamental link between cognition and emotion. It is shaped by cognitive assessments of likelihood, intuition, and superstition, and it in turn shapes hedonic experiences. We examine this connection between cognition and emotion and offer an explanation called decision affect theory. Our theory predicts the affective consequences of mistaken beliefs, such as overconfidence and hindsight. It provides insight about why the pleasure of a gain can loom larger than the pain of a comparable loss. Finally, it explains cross-cultural differences in emotional reactions to surprising events. By changing the nature of the unexpected (from chance to good luck), one can alter the emotional reaction to surprising events. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Large Meteoroid Impact on the Moon on 17 March 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moser, Danielle E.; Suggs, Robert M.; Suggs, Ronnie J.

    2014-01-01

    Since early 2006, NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center has observed over 300 impact flashes on the Moon, produced by meteoroids striking the lunar surface. On 17 March 2013 at 03:50:54.312 UTC, the brightest flash of an 8-year routine observing campaign was observed in two 0.35 m telescopes outfitted with Watec 902H2 Ultimate monochrome CCD cameras recording interleaved 30 fps video. Standard CCD photometric techniques, described in [1], were applied to the video after saturation correction, yielding a peak R magnitude of 3.0 +/- 0.4 in a 1/30 second video exposure. This corresponds to a luminous energy of 7.1 × 10(exp 6) J. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools were used to georeference the lunar impact imagery and yielded a crater location at 20.60 +/- 0.17deg N, 23.92 +/- 0.30deg W. The camera onboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), a NASA spacecraft mapping the Moon from lunar orbit, discovered the fresh crater associated with this impact by comparing post-impact images from 28 July 2013 to pre-impact images on 12 Feb 2012. The images show fresh, bright ejecta around an 18 m diameter circular crater, with a 15 m inner diameter measured from the level of pre-existing terrain, at 20.7135deg N, 24.3302deg W. An asymmetrical ray pattern with both high and low reflectance ejecta zones extends 1-2 km beyond the crater, and a series of mostly low reflectance splotches can be seen within 30 km of the crater - likely due to secondary impacts [2]. The meteoroid impactor responsible for this event may have been part of a stream of large particles encountered by the Earth/Moon associated with the Virginid Meteor Complex, as evidenced by a cluster of 5 fireballs seen in Earth's atmosphere on the same night by the NASA All Sky Fireball Network [3] and the Southern Ontario Meteor Network [4]. Assuming a velocity-dependent luminous efficiency (ratio of luminous energy to kinetic energy) from [5] and an impact velocity of 25.6 km/s derived from fireball measurements

  4. Viral marketing: the use of surprise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lindgreen, A.; Vanhamme, J.; Clarke, I.; Flaherty, T.B.

    2005-01-01

    Viral marketing involves consumers passing along a company's marketing message to their friends, family, and colleagues. This chapter reviews viral marketing campaigns and argues that the emotion of surprise often is at work and that this mechanism resembles that of word-of-mouth marketing.

  5. Exploration, Novelty, Surprise and Free Energy Minimisation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philipp eSchwartenbeck

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews recent developments under the free energy principle that introduce a normative perspective on classical economic (utilitarian decision-making based on (active Bayesian inference. It has been suggested that the free energy principle precludes novelty and complexity, because it assumes that biological systems – like ourselves - try to minimise the long-term average of surprise to maintain their homeostasis. However, recent formulations show that minimising surprise leads naturally to concepts such as exploration and novelty bonuses. In this approach, agents infer a policy that minimises surprise by minimising the difference (or relative entropy between likely and desired outcomes, which involves both pursuing the goal-state that has the highest expected utility (often termed ‘exploitation’ and visiting a number of different goal-states (‘exploration’. Crucially, the opportunity to visit new states increases the value of the current state. Casting decision-making problems within a variational framework, therefore, predicts that our behaviour is governed by both the entropy and expected utility of future states. This dissolves any dialectic between minimising surprise and exploration or novelty seeking.

  6. Glial heterotopia of maxilla: A clinical surprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santosh Kumar Mahalik

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Glial heterotopia is a rare congenital mass lesion which often presents as a clinical surprise. We report a case of extranasal glial heterotopia in a neonate with unusual features. The presentation, management strategy, etiopathogenesis and histopathology of the mass lesion has been reviewed.

  7. A Shocking Surprise in Stephan's Quintet

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    This false-color composite image of the Stephan's Quintet galaxy cluster clearly shows one of the largest shock waves ever seen (green arc). The wave was produced by one galaxy falling toward another at speeds of more than one million miles per hour. The image is made up of data from NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope and a ground-based telescope in Spain. Four of the five galaxies in this picture are involved in a violent collision, which has already stripped most of the hydrogen gas from the interiors of the galaxies. The centers of the galaxies appear as bright yellow-pink knots inside a blue haze of stars, and the galaxy producing all the turmoil, NGC7318b, is the left of two small bright regions in the middle right of the image. One galaxy, the large spiral at the bottom left of the image, is a foreground object and is not associated with the cluster. The titanic shock wave, larger than our own Milky Way galaxy, was detected by the ground-based telescope using visible-light wavelengths. It consists of hot hydrogen gas. As NGC7318b collides with gas spread throughout the cluster, atoms of hydrogen are heated in the shock wave, producing the green glow. Spitzer pointed its infrared spectrograph at the peak of this shock wave (middle of green glow) to learn more about its inner workings. This instrument breaks light apart into its basic components. Data from the instrument are referred to as spectra and are displayed as curving lines that indicate the amount of light coming at each specific wavelength. The Spitzer spectrum showed a strong infrared signature for incredibly turbulent gas made up of hydrogen molecules. This gas is caused when atoms of hydrogen rapidly pair-up to form molecules in the wake of the shock wave. Molecular hydrogen, unlike atomic hydrogen, gives off most of its energy through vibrations that emit in the infrared. This highly disturbed gas is the most turbulent molecular hydrogen ever seen. Astronomers were surprised not only by the turbulence

  8. Radar Design to Protect Against Surprise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doerry, Armin W. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-02-01

    Technological and doctrinal surprise is about rendering preparations for conflict as irrelevant or ineffective . For a sensor, this means essentially rendering the sensor as irrelevant or ineffective in its ability to help determine truth. Recovery from this sort of surprise is facilitated by flexibility in our own technology and doctrine. For a sensor, this mean s flexibility in its architecture, design, tactics, and the designing organizations ' processes. - 4 - Acknowledgements This report is the result of a n unfunded research and development activity . Sandia National Laboratories is a multi - program laboratory manage d and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE - AC04 - 94AL85000.

  9. Impact of large scale flows on turbulent transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sarazin, Y [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC centre de Cadarache, 13108 St-Paul-Lez-Durance (France); Grandgirard, V [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC centre de Cadarache, 13108 St-Paul-Lez-Durance (France); Dif-Pradalier, G [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC centre de Cadarache, 13108 St-Paul-Lez-Durance (France); Fleurence, E [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC centre de Cadarache, 13108 St-Paul-Lez-Durance (France); Garbet, X [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC centre de Cadarache, 13108 St-Paul-Lez-Durance (France); Ghendrih, Ph [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC centre de Cadarache, 13108 St-Paul-Lez-Durance (France); Bertrand, P [LPMIA-Universite Henri Poincare Nancy I, Boulevard des Aiguillettes BP239, 54506 Vandoe uvre-les-Nancy (France); Besse, N [LPMIA-Universite Henri Poincare Nancy I, Boulevard des Aiguillettes BP239, 54506 Vandoe uvre-les-Nancy (France); Crouseilles, N [IRMA, UMR 7501 CNRS/Universite Louis Pasteur, 7 rue Rene Descartes, 67084 Strasbourg (France); Sonnendruecker, E [IRMA, UMR 7501 CNRS/Universite Louis Pasteur, 7 rue Rene Descartes, 67084 Strasbourg (France); Latu, G [LSIIT, UMR 7005 CNRS/Universite Louis Pasteur, Bd Sebastien Brant BP10413, 67412 Illkirch (France); Violard, E [LSIIT, UMR 7005 CNRS/Universite Louis Pasteur, Bd Sebastien Brant BP10413, 67412 Illkirch (France)

    2006-12-15

    The impact of large scale flows on turbulent transport in magnetized plasmas is explored by means of various kinetic models. Zonal flows are found to lead to a non-linear upshift of turbulent transport in a 3D kinetic model for interchange turbulence. Such a transition is absent from fluid simulations, performed with the same numerical tool, which also predict a much larger transport. The discrepancy cannot be explained by zonal flows only, despite they being overdamped in fluids. Indeed, some difference remains, although reduced, when they are artificially suppressed. Zonal flows are also reported to trigger transport barriers in a 4D drift-kinetic model for slab ion temperature gradient (ITG) turbulence. The density gradient acts as a source drive for zonal flows, while their curvature back stabilizes the turbulence. Finally, 5D simulations of toroidal ITG modes with the global and full-f GYSELA code require the equilibrium density function to depend on the motion invariants only. If not, the generated strong mean flows can completely quench turbulent transport.

  10. Impact of large scale flows on turbulent transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarazin, Y; Grandgirard, V; Dif-Pradalier, G; Fleurence, E; Garbet, X; Ghendrih, Ph; Bertrand, P; Besse, N; Crouseilles, N; Sonnendruecker, E; Latu, G; Violard, E

    2006-01-01

    The impact of large scale flows on turbulent transport in magnetized plasmas is explored by means of various kinetic models. Zonal flows are found to lead to a non-linear upshift of turbulent transport in a 3D kinetic model for interchange turbulence. Such a transition is absent from fluid simulations, performed with the same numerical tool, which also predict a much larger transport. The discrepancy cannot be explained by zonal flows only, despite they being overdamped in fluids. Indeed, some difference remains, although reduced, when they are artificially suppressed. Zonal flows are also reported to trigger transport barriers in a 4D drift-kinetic model for slab ion temperature gradient (ITG) turbulence. The density gradient acts as a source drive for zonal flows, while their curvature back stabilizes the turbulence. Finally, 5D simulations of toroidal ITG modes with the global and full-f GYSELA code require the equilibrium density function to depend on the motion invariants only. If not, the generated strong mean flows can completely quench turbulent transport

  11. Surprise: Dwarf Galaxy Harbors Supermassive Black Hole

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    The surprising discovery of a supermassive black hole in a small nearby galaxy has given astronomers a tantalizing look at how black holes and galaxies may have grown in the early history of the Universe. Finding a black hole a million times more massive than the Sun in a star-forming dwarf galaxy is a strong indication that supermassive black holes formed before the buildup of galaxies, the astronomers said. The galaxy, called Henize 2-10, 30 million light-years from Earth, has been studied for years, and is forming stars very rapidly. Irregularly shaped and about 3,000 light-years across (compared to 100,000 for our own Milky Way), it resembles what scientists think were some of the first galaxies to form in the early Universe. "This galaxy gives us important clues about a very early phase of galaxy evolution that has not been observed before," said Amy Reines, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Virginia. Supermassive black holes lie at the cores of all "full-sized" galaxies. In the nearby Universe, there is a direct relationship -- a constant ratio -- between the masses of the black holes and that of the central "bulges" of the galaxies, leading them to conclude that the black holes and bulges affected each others' growth. Two years ago, an international team of astronomers found that black holes in young galaxies in the early Universe were more massive than this ratio would indicate. This, they said, was strong evidence that black holes developed before their surrounding galaxies. "Now, we have found a dwarf galaxy with no bulge at all, yet it has a supermassive black hole. This greatly strengthens the case for the black holes developing first, before the galaxy's bulge is formed," Reines said. Reines, along with Gregory Sivakoff and Kelsey Johnson of the University of Virginia and the National Radio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO), and Crystal Brogan of the NRAO, observed Henize 2-10 with the National Science Foundation's Very Large Array radio telescope and

  12. Pupil size tracks perceptual content and surprise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloosterman, Niels A; Meindertsma, Thomas; van Loon, Anouk M; Lamme, Victor A F; Bonneh, Yoram S; Donner, Tobias H

    2015-04-01

    Changes in pupil size at constant light levels reflect the activity of neuromodulatory brainstem centers that control global brain state. These endogenously driven pupil dynamics can be synchronized with cognitive acts. For example, the pupil dilates during the spontaneous switches of perception of a constant sensory input in bistable perceptual illusions. It is unknown whether this pupil dilation only indicates the occurrence of perceptual switches, or also their content. Here, we measured pupil diameter in human subjects reporting the subjective disappearance and re-appearance of a physically constant visual target surrounded by a moving pattern ('motion-induced blindness' illusion). We show that the pupil dilates during the perceptual switches in the illusion and a stimulus-evoked 'replay' of that illusion. Critically, the switch-related pupil dilation encodes perceptual content, with larger amplitude for disappearance than re-appearance. This difference in pupil response amplitude enables prediction of the type of report (disappearance vs. re-appearance) on individual switches (receiver-operating characteristic: 61%). The amplitude difference is independent of the relative durations of target-visible and target-invisible intervals and subjects' overt behavioral report of the perceptual switches. Further, we show that pupil dilation during the replay also scales with the level of surprise about the timing of switches, but there is no evidence for an interaction between the effects of surprise and perceptual content on the pupil response. Taken together, our results suggest that pupil-linked brain systems track both the content of, and surprise about, perceptual events. © 2015 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Old Star's "Rebirth" Gives Astronomers Surprises

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-04-01

    Astronomers using the National Science Foundation's Very Large Array (VLA) radio telescope are taking advantage of a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to watch an old star suddenly stir back into new activity after coming to the end of its normal life. Their surprising results have forced them to change their ideas of how such an old, white dwarf star can re-ignite its nuclear furnace for one final blast of energy. Sakurai's Object Radio/Optical Images of Sakurai's Object: Color image shows nebula ejected thousands of years ago. Contours indicate radio emission. Inset is Hubble Space Telescope image, with contours indicating radio emission; this inset shows just the central part of the region. CREDIT: Hajduk et al., NRAO/AUI/NSF, ESO, StSci, NASA Computer simulations had predicted a series of events that would follow such a re-ignition of fusion reactions, but the star didn't follow the script -- events moved 100 times more quickly than the simulations predicted. "We've now produced a new theoretical model of how this process works, and the VLA observations have provided the first evidence supporting our new model," said Albert Zijlstra, of the University of Manchester in the United Kingdom. Zijlstra and his colleagues presented their findings in the April 8 issue of the journal Science. The astronomers studied a star known as V4334 Sgr, in the constellation Sagittarius. It is better known as "Sakurai's Object," after Japanese amateur astronomer Yukio Sakurai, who discovered it on February 20, 1996, when it suddenly burst into new brightness. At first, astronomers thought the outburst was a common nova explosion, but further study showed that Sakurai's Object was anything but common. The star is an old white dwarf that had run out of hydrogen fuel for nuclear fusion reactions in its core. Astronomers believe that some such stars can undergo a final burst of fusion in a shell of helium that surrounds a core of heavier nuclei such as carbon and oxygen. However, the

  14. Large meteorite impacts: The K/T model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohor, B. F.

    1992-01-01

    The Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary event represents probably the largest meteorite impact known on Earth. It is the only impact event conclusively linked to a worldwide mass extinction, a reflection of its gigantic scale and global influence. Until recently, the impact crater was not definitively located and only the distal ejecta of this impact was available for study. However, detailed investigations of this ejecta's mineralogy, geochemistry, microstratigraphy, and textures have allowed its modes of ejection and dispersal to be modeled without benefit of a source crater of known size and location.

  15. The asteroid impact connection of planetary evolution with special reference to large Precambrian and Australian impacts

    CERN Document Server

    Glikson, Andrew Y

    2014-01-01

    When in 1981 Louis and Walter Alvarez, the father and son team, unearthed a tell-tale Iridium-rich sedimentary horizon at the 65 million years-old Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary at Gubbio, Italy, their find heralded a paradigm shift in the study of terrestrial evolution.  Since the 1980s the discovery and study of asteroid impact ejecta in the oldest well-preserved terrains of Western Australia and South Africa, by Don Lowe, Gary Byerly, Bruce Simonson, Scott Hassler, the author and others, and the documentation of new exposed and buried impact structures in several continents, have led to a resurgence of the idea of the catastrophism theory of Cuvier, previously largely supplanted by the uniformitarian theory of Hutton and Lyell. Several mass extinction of species events are known to have occurred in temporal proximity to large asteroid impacts, global volcanic eruptions and continental splitting. Likely links are observed between asteroid clusters and the 580 Ma acritarch radiation, end-Devonian extinction, ...

  16. The Quanzhou large earthquake: environment impact and deep process

    Science.gov (United States)

    WANG, Y.; Gao*, R.; Ye, Z.; Wang, C.

    2017-12-01

    The Quanzhou earthquake is the largest earthquake in China's southeast coast in history. The ancient city of Quanzhou and its adjacent areas suffered serious damage. Analysis of the impact of Quanzhou earthquake on human activities, ecological environment and social development will provide an example for the research on environment and human interaction.According to historical records, on the night of December 29, 1604, a Ms 8.0 earthquake occurred in the sea area at the east of Quanzhou (25.0°N, 119.5°E) with a focal depth of 25 kilometers. It affected to a maximum distance of 220 kilometers from the epicenter and caused serious damage. Quanzhou, which has been known as one of the world's largest trade ports during Song and Yuan periods was heavily destroyed by this earthquake. The destruction of the ancient city was very serious and widespread. The city wall collapsed in Putian, Nanan, Tongan and other places. The East and West Towers of Kaiyuan Temple, which are famous with magnificent architecture in history, were seriously destroyed.Therefore, an enormous earthquake can exert devastating effects on human activities and social development in the history. It is estimated that a more than Ms. 5.0 earthquake in the economically developed coastal areas in China can directly cause economic losses for more than one hundred million yuan. This devastating large earthquake that severely destroyed the Quanzhou city was triggered under a tectonic-extensional circumstance. In this coastal area of the Fujian Province, the crust gradually thins eastward from inland to coast (less than 29 km thick crust beneath the coast), the lithosphere is also rather thin (60 70 km), and the Poisson's ratio of the crust here appears relatively high. The historical Quanzhou Earthquake was probably correlated with the NE-striking Littoral Fault Zone, which is characterized by right-lateral slip and exhibiting the most active seismicity in the coastal area of Fujian. Meanwhile, tectonic

  17. Environmental Impacts of Large Scale Biochar Application Through Spatial Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, I.; Archontoulis, S.

    2017-12-01

    In an effort to study the environmental (emissions, soil quality) and production (yield) impacts of biochar application at regional scales we coupled the APSIM-Biochar model with the pSIMS parallel platform. So far the majority of biochar research has been concentrated on lab to field studies to advance scientific knowledge. Regional scale assessments are highly needed to assist decision making. The overall objective of this simulation study was to identify areas in the USA that have the most gain environmentally from biochar's application, as well as areas which our model predicts a notable yield increase due to the addition of biochar. We present the modifications in both APSIM biochar and pSIMS components that were necessary to facilitate these large scale model runs across several regions in the United States at a resolution of 5 arcminutes. This study uses the AgMERRA global climate data set (1980-2010) and the Global Soil Dataset for Earth Systems modeling as a basis for creating its simulations, as well as local management operations for maize and soybean cropping systems and different biochar application rates. The regional scale simulation analysis is in progress. Preliminary results showed that the model predicts that high quality soils (particularly those common to Iowa cropping systems) do not receive much, if any, production benefit from biochar. However, soils with low soil organic matter ( 0.5%) do get a noteworthy yield increase of around 5-10% in the best cases. We also found N2O emissions to be spatial and temporal specific; increase in some areas and decrease in some other areas due to biochar application. In contrast, we found increases in soil organic carbon and plant available water in all soils (top 30 cm) due to biochar application. The magnitude of these increases (% change from the control) were larger in soil with low organic matter (below 1.5%) and smaller in soils with high organic matter (above 3%) and also dependent on biochar

  18. Primary Care Practice: Uncertainty and Surprise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabtree, Benjamin F.

    I will focus my comments on uncertainty and surprise in primary care practices. I am a medical anthropologist by training, and have been a full-time researcher in family medicine for close to twenty years. In this talk I want to look at primary care practices as complex systems, particularly taking the perspective of translating evidence into practice. I am going to discuss briefly the challenges we have in primary care, and in medicine in general, of translating new evidence into the everyday care of patients. To do this, I will look at two studies that we have conducted on family practices, then think about how practices can be best characterized as complex adaptive systems. Finally, I will focus on the implications of this portrayal for disseminating new knowledge into practice.

  19. Surprises and counterexamples in real function theory

    CERN Document Server

    Rajwade, A R

    2007-01-01

    This book presents a variety of intriguing, surprising and appealing topics and nonroutine theorems in real function theory. It is a reference book to which one can turn for finding that arise while studying or teaching analysis.Chapter 1 is an introduction to algebraic, irrational and transcendental numbers and contains the Cantor ternary set. Chapter 2 contains functions with extraordinary properties; functions that are continuous at each point but differentiable at no point. Chapters 4 and intermediate value property, periodic functions, Rolle's theorem, Taylor's theorem, points of tangents. Chapter 6 discusses sequences and series. It includes the restricted harmonic series, of alternating harmonic series and some number theoretic aspects. In Chapter 7, the infinite peculiar range of convergence is studied. Appendix I deal with some specialized topics. Exercises at the end of chapters and their solutions are provided in Appendix II.This book will be useful for students and teachers alike.

  20. Prediction of the environmental impact and sustainability of large ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This was due largely to dilution by infiltration from rainfall recharge and the dispersive characteristics of the aquifer. The simulations also ... aquifer below. These results suggest that large-scale irrigation with gypsiferous water could be viable if irrigated fields are carefully sited to prevent waterlogging and are well managed.

  1. Distinct medial temporal networks encode surprise during motivation by reward versus punishment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murty, Vishnu P.; LaBar, Kevin S.; Adcock, R. Alison

    2016-01-01

    Adaptive motivated behavior requires predictive internal representations of the environment, and surprising events are indications for encoding new representations of the environment. The medial temporal lobe memory system, including the hippocampus and surrounding cortex, encodes surprising events and is influenced by motivational state. Because behavior reflects the goals of an individual, we investigated whether motivational valence (i.e., pursuing rewards versus avoiding punishments) also impacts neural and mnemonic encoding of surprising events. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), participants encountered perceptually unexpected events either during the pursuit of rewards or avoidance of punishments. Despite similar levels of motivation across groups, reward and punishment facilitated the processing of surprising events in different medial temporal lobe regions. Whereas during reward motivation, perceptual surprises enhanced activation in the hippocampus, during punishment motivation surprises instead enhanced activation in parahippocampal cortex. Further, we found that reward motivation facilitated hippocampal coupling with ventromedial PFC, whereas punishment motivation facilitated parahippocampal cortical coupling with orbitofrontal cortex. Behaviorally, post-scan testing revealed that reward, but not punishment, motivation resulted in greater memory selectivity for surprising events encountered during goal pursuit. Together these findings demonstrate that neuromodulatory systems engaged by anticipation of reward and punishment target separate components of the medial temporal lobe, modulating medial temporal lobe sensitivity and connectivity. Thus, reward and punishment motivation yield distinct neural contexts for learning, with distinct consequences for how surprises are incorporated into predictive mnemonic models of the environment. PMID:26854903

  2. Distinct medial temporal networks encode surprise during motivation by reward versus punishment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murty, Vishnu P; LaBar, Kevin S; Adcock, R Alison

    2016-10-01

    Adaptive motivated behavior requires predictive internal representations of the environment, and surprising events are indications for encoding new representations of the environment. The medial temporal lobe memory system, including the hippocampus and surrounding cortex, encodes surprising events and is influenced by motivational state. Because behavior reflects the goals of an individual, we investigated whether motivational valence (i.e., pursuing rewards versus avoiding punishments) also impacts neural and mnemonic encoding of surprising events. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), participants encountered perceptually unexpected events either during the pursuit of rewards or avoidance of punishments. Despite similar levels of motivation across groups, reward and punishment facilitated the processing of surprising events in different medial temporal lobe regions. Whereas during reward motivation, perceptual surprises enhanced activation in the hippocampus, during punishment motivation surprises instead enhanced activation in parahippocampal cortex. Further, we found that reward motivation facilitated hippocampal coupling with ventromedial PFC, whereas punishment motivation facilitated parahippocampal cortical coupling with orbitofrontal cortex. Behaviorally, post-scan testing revealed that reward, but not punishment, motivation resulted in greater memory selectivity for surprising events encountered during goal pursuit. Together these findings demonstrate that neuromodulatory systems engaged by anticipation of reward and punishment target separate components of the medial temporal lobe, modulating medial temporal lobe sensitivity and connectivity. Thus, reward and punishment motivation yield distinct neural contexts for learning, with distinct consequences for how surprises are incorporated into predictive mnemonic models of the environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Impact of heuristics in clustering large biological networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafin, Md Kishwar; Kabir, Kazi Lutful; Ridwan, Iffatur; Anannya, Tasmiah Tamzid; Karim, Rashid Saadman; Hoque, Mohammad Mozammel; Rahman, M Sohel

    2015-12-01

    Traditional clustering algorithms often exhibit poor performance for large networks. On the contrary, greedy algorithms are found to be relatively efficient while uncovering functional modules from large biological networks. The quality of the clusters produced by these greedy techniques largely depends on the underlying heuristics employed. Different heuristics based on different attributes and properties perform differently in terms of the quality of the clusters produced. This motivates us to design new heuristics for clustering large networks. In this paper, we have proposed two new heuristics and analyzed the performance thereof after incorporating those with three different combinations in a recently celebrated greedy clustering algorithm named SPICi. We have extensively analyzed the effectiveness of these new variants. The results are found to be promising. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. The conceptualization model problem—surprise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bredehoeft, John

    2005-03-01

    The foundation of model analysis is the conceptual model. Surprise is defined as new data that renders the prevailing conceptual model invalid; as defined here it represents a paradigm shift. Limited empirical data indicate that surprises occur in 20-30% of model analyses. These data suggest that groundwater analysts have difficulty selecting the appropriate conceptual model. There is no ready remedy to the conceptual model problem other than (1) to collect as much data as is feasible, using all applicable methods—a complementary data collection methodology can lead to new information that changes the prevailing conceptual model, and (2) for the analyst to remain open to the fact that the conceptual model can change dramatically as more information is collected. In the final analysis, the hydrogeologist makes a subjective decision on the appropriate conceptual model. The conceptualization problem does not render models unusable. The problem introduces an uncertainty that often is not widely recognized. Conceptual model uncertainty is exacerbated in making long-term predictions of system performance. C'est le modèle conceptuel qui se trouve à base d'une analyse sur un modèle. On considère comme une surprise lorsque le modèle est invalidé par des données nouvelles; dans les termes définis ici la surprise est équivalente à un change de paradigme. Des données empiriques limitées indiquent que les surprises apparaissent dans 20 à 30% des analyses effectuées sur les modèles. Ces données suggèrent que l'analyse des eaux souterraines présente des difficultés lorsqu'il s'agit de choisir le modèle conceptuel approprié. Il n'existe pas un autre remède au problème du modèle conceptuel que: (1) rassembler autant des données que possible en utilisant toutes les méthodes applicables—la méthode des données complémentaires peut conduire aux nouvelles informations qui vont changer le modèle conceptuel, et (2) l'analyste doit rester ouvert au fait

  5. Thermal radiation from large bolides and impact plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svetsov, V.; Shuvalov, V.

    2017-09-01

    Numerical simulations of the impacts of asteroids and comets from 20 m to 3 km in diameter have been carried out and thermal radiation fluxes on the ground and luminous efficiencies of the impacts have been calculated. It was assumed that the cosmic objects have no strength, deform, fragment, and vaporize in the atmosphere. After the impact on the ground, formation of craters and plumes was simulated taking into account internal friction of destroyed rocks and a wake formed in the atmosphere. The equations of radiative transfer, added to the equations of gas dynamics, were used in the approximation of radiative heat diffusion or, if the Rosseland optical depth of a radiating volume of gas and vapor was less than unity, in the approximation of volume emission. Radiation fluxes on the Earth's surface were calculated by integrating the equation of radiative transfer along rays passing through a luminous area. Direct thermal radiation from fireballs and impact plumes produced by asteroids and comets larger than 50 m in diameter is dangerous for people, animals, plants, economic objects. Forest fires can be ignited on the ground within a radius of roughly 1000 times the body's diameter (for diameters of the order or smaller than 1 km), 50-m-diameter bodies can ignite forest fires within a radius of up to 40 km and 3-km asteroids - within 1700 km.

  6. Large-scale coastal impact induced by a catastrophic storm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fruergaard, Mikkel; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter N

    breaching. Our results demonstrate that violent, millennial-scale storms can trigger significant large-scale and long-term changes on barrier coasts, and that coastal changes assumed to take place over centuries or even millennia may occur in association with a single extreme storm event....

  7. Vortex-ring-induced large bubble entrainment during drop impact

    KAUST Repository

    Thoraval, Marie-Jean; Li, Yangfan; Thoroddsen, Sigurdur T

    2016-01-01

    , produced in the neck between the drop and the pool, controls the crater deformations and pinchoff. However, it is not the strongest vortex rings that are responsible for the large bubbles, as they interact too strongly with the pool surface and self

  8. Assessment of climate change impacts on rainfall using large scale ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Many of the applied techniques in water resources management can be directly or indirectly influenced by ... is based on large scale climate signals data around the world. In order ... predictand relationships are often very complex. .... constraints to solve the optimization problem. ..... social, and environmental sustainability.

  9. Large impact of small particulates; Grote invloed van klein fijnstof

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hiemstra-Holtkamp, I.V.L. [Astma Fonds, Leusden (Netherlands)

    2006-06-15

    PM2.5 particulates are responsible for a large part of thousands of people that die of air pollution. The Asthma Fund in the Netherlands wants the Dutch government to take specific action and measures for those small particulates. [Dutch] PM2.5 is verantwoordelijk voor een groot deel van de 1000-en mensen die elk jaar sterven door luchtverontreiniging. Het Astma Fonds wil dat de overheid aparte maatregelen neemt voor PM2.5.

  10. Mitigating the Impact of Nurse Manager Large Spans of Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Brenda Baird; Dearmon, Valorie; Graves, Rebecca

    Nurse managers are instrumental in achievement of organizational and unit performance goals. Greater spans of control for managers are associated with decreased satisfaction and performance. An interprofessional team measured one organization's nurse manager span of control, providing administrative assistant support and transformational leadership development to nurse managers with the largest spans of control. Nurse manager satisfaction and transformational leadership competency significantly improved following the implementation of large span of control mitigation strategies.

  11. X rays and radioactivity: a complete surprise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radvanyi, P.; Bordry, M.

    1995-01-01

    The discoveries of X rays and of radioactivity came as complete experimental surprises; the physicists, at that time, had no previous hint of a possible structure of atoms. It is difficult now, knowing what we know, to replace ourselves in the spirit, astonishment and questioning of these years, between 1895 and 1903. The nature of X rays was soon hypothesized, but the nature of the rays emitted by uranium, polonium and radium was much more difficult to disentangle, as they were a mixture of different types of radiations. The origin of the energy continuously released in radioactivity remained a complete mystery for a few years. The multiplicity of the radioactive substances became soon a difficult matter: what was real and what was induced ? Isotopy was still far ahead. It appeared that some radioactive substances had ''half-lifes'': were they genuine radioactive elements or was it just a transitory phenomenon ? Henri Becquerel (in 1900) and Pierre and Marie Curie (in 1902) hesitated on the correct answer. Only after Ernest Rutherford and Frederick Soddy established that radioactivity was the transmutation of one element into another, could one understand that a solid element transformed into a gaseous element, which in turn transformed itself into a succession of solid radioactive elements. It was only in 1913 - after the discovery of the atomic nucleus -, through precise measurements of X ray spectra, that Henry Moseley showed that the number of electrons of a given atom - and the charge of its nucleus - was equal to its atomic number in the periodic table. (authors)

  12. X rays and radioactivity: a complete surprise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Radvanyi, P. [Laboratoire National Saturne, Centre d`Etudes de Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Bordry, M. [Institut du Radium, 75 - Paris (France)

    1995-12-31

    The discoveries of X rays and of radioactivity came as complete experimental surprises; the physicists, at that time, had no previous hint of a possible structure of atoms. It is difficult now, knowing what we know, to replace ourselves in the spirit, astonishment and questioning of these years, between 1895 and 1903. The nature of X rays was soon hypothesized, but the nature of the rays emitted by uranium, polonium and radium was much more difficult to disentangle, as they were a mixture of different types of radiations. The origin of the energy continuously released in radioactivity remained a complete mystery for a few years. The multiplicity of the radioactive substances became soon a difficult matter: what was real and what was induced ? Isotopy was still far ahead. It appeared that some radioactive substances had ``half-lifes``: were they genuine radioactive elements or was it just a transitory phenomenon ? Henri Becquerel (in 1900) and Pierre and Marie Curie (in 1902) hesitated on the correct answer. Only after Ernest Rutherford and Frederick Soddy established that radioactivity was the transmutation of one element into another, could one understand that a solid element transformed into a gaseous element, which in turn transformed itself into a succession of solid radioactive elements. It was only in 1913 - after the discovery of the atomic nucleus -, through precise measurements of X ray spectra, that Henry Moseley showed that the number of electrons of a given atom - and the charge of its nucleus - was equal to its atomic number in the periodic table. (authors).

  13. The impacts of large-scale assessment on school curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita de Cássia Silva Godoi Menegão

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This work results from a doctoral research which analyzed the curriculum at the interface with the external evaluation in order to identify, describe and analyze how the subjects are positioning themselves in this context of tests, and map the changes made in the school curriculum driven by Prova Brasil and IDEB. The approach is descriptive and analytical, using documentary analysis, questionnaire and oral interviews in a sample of 55 teachers, subjects. The investigation was based on Freitas and colleagues (2012, Gimeno Sacristán (2000, Apple (2005, Sousa (2004 among others. The external evaluation has impacted the setting of the school curriculum and induced to over training for tests, thus compromising the quality of education.

  14. Equilibrium deuterium isotope effect of surprising magnitude

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldstein, M.J.; Pressman, E.J.

    1981-01-01

    Seemingly large deuterium isotope effects are reported for the preference of deuterium for the α-chloro site to the bridgehead or to the vinyl site in samples of anti-7-chlorobicyclo[4.3.2]undecatetraene-d 1 . Studies of molecular models did not provide a basis for these large equilibrium deuterium isotope effects. The possibility is proposed that these isotope effects only appear to be large for want of comparison with isotope effects measured for molecules that might provide even greater contrasts in local force fields

  15. Health impacts of large releases of radionuclides. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lake, J.V.; Bock, G.R.; Cardew, Gail

    1997-01-01

    There have been various large-scale releases of radionuclides into the environment in the 20th century. Some of these have been accidental and some deliberate. In order to minimize the risk to human health of such releases, it is important that we understand how these substances are transported throughout the terrestrial and aquatic environments and the ways in which they can ultimately affect human health. This book contains contributions from the world's leading radioecologists and health scientists who discuss the progress in understanding these transport processes and exposure pathways of radionuclides to humans; the problems and latest techniques of quantitating retrospectively the actual doses received by individuals; the time course of effects of exposure in relation to structure and function at the cellular tissue, organ and whole organism level; the genetic effects, and effects on reproductive health, in populations and individuals, including fetal effects in pregnant women and inherited genetic effects; and scientific approaches to evaluate the important problem of the mental health consequences of perceived risk of radiation damage to health. (author)

  16. Impact of space dependent eddy mixing on large ocean circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradal, M. A. S.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Abernathey, R. P.

    2016-02-01

    Throughout the ocean, mesoscale eddies stir tracers such as heat, oxygen, helium, dissolved CO2, affecting their spatial distribution. Recent work (Gnanadesikan et al., 2013) showed that changes in eddy stirring could result in changes of the volume of hypoxic and anoxic waters, leading to drastic consequences for ocean biogeochemical cycles. The parameterization of mesocale eddies in global climate models (GCMs) is two parts, based on the formulations of Redi (1982) and Gent and McWilliams (1990) which are associated with mixing parameters ARedi and AGM respectively. Numerous studies have looked at the sensitivity of ESMs to changing AGM, either alone or in combination with an ARedi parameter taken to be equivalent to the value of the AGM. By contrast the impact of the Redi parameterization in isolation remains unexplored. In a previous article, Pradal and Gnanadesikan, 2014, described the sensitivity of the climate system to a six fold increase in the Redi parameter. They found that increasing the isopycnal mixing coefficient tended to warm the climate of the planet overall, through an increase of heat absorption linked to a destabilization of the halocline in subpolar regions (particularly the Southern Ocean). This previous work varied a globally constant Redi parameter from 400m2/s to 2400m2/s. New estimates from altimetry (Abernathey and Marshall, 2013) better constrain the spatial patterns and range for the ARedi parameter. Does such spatial variation matter, and if so, where does matter? Following Gnanadesikan et al. (2013) and Pradal and Gnanadesikan, 2014 this study examines this question with a suite of Earth System Models.

  17. Surprises in the suddenly-expanded infinite well

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aslangul, Claude

    2008-01-01

    I study the time evolution of a particle prepared in the ground state of an infinite well after the latter is suddenly expanded. It turns out that the probability density |Ψ(x, t)| 2 shows up quite a surprising behaviour: for definite times, plateaux appear for which |Ψ(x, t)| 2 is constant on finite intervals for x. Elements of theoretical explanation are given by analysing the singular component of the second derivative ∂ xx Ψ(x, t). Analytical closed expressions are obtained for some specific times, which easily allow us to show that, at these times, the density organizes itself into regular patterns provided the size of the box is large enough; more, above some critical size depending on the specific time, the density patterns are independent of the expansion parameter. It is seen how the density at these times simply results from a construction game with definite rules acting on the pieces of the initial density

  18. The Value of Change: Surprises and Insights in Stellar Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bildsten, Lars

    2018-01-01

    Astronomers with large-format cameras regularly scan the sky many times per night to detect what's changing, and telescopes in space such as Kepler and, soon, TESS obtain very accurate brightness measurements of nearly a million stars over time periods of years. These capabilities, in conjunction with theoretical and computational efforts, have yielded surprises and remarkable new insights into the internal properties of stars and how they end their lives. I will show how asteroseismology reveals the properties of the deep interiors of red giants, and highlight how astrophysical transients may be revealing unusual thermonuclear outcomes from exploding white dwarfs and the births of highly magnetic neutron stars. All the while, stellar science has been accelerated by the availability of open source tools, such as Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), and the nearly immediate availability of observational results.

  19. Fundamental surprise in the application of airpower

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-25

    explain transformations in scientific research proposed by Thomas Kuhn in his book “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions." Kuhn proposed the idea...that the accepted traditions of scientific research within a particular community, known as a paradigm, provide the tools to perform "normal science...the large-scale attacks on Lebanese infrastructure would have on the regime, this concept was a non- starter . The order issued to the IDF on 12 July

  20. A general theory of impacts and mass extinctions, and the consequences of large-body impact on the Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rampino, M. R.

    1994-01-01

    The theory that large-body impacts are the primary cause of mass extinctions of life on the Earth now has a sound theoretical and observational foundation. A convergence of evidence suggests that the biosphere may be a sensitive detector of large impact events, which result in the recorded global mass extinction pulses. The astronomically observed flux of asteroids and comets in the neighborhood of the Earth, and the threshold impact size calculated to produce a global environment catastrophe, can be used to predict a time history of large impact events and related mass extinctions of life that agrees well with the record of approx. 24 extinction events in the last 540 m.y.

  1. The Influence of Negative Surprise on Hedonic Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Kieling

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available After some time using a product or service, the consumer tends to feel less pleasure with consumption. This reduction of pleasure is known as hedonic adaptation. One of the emotions that interfere in this process is surprise. Based on two experiments, we suggest that negative surprise – differently to positive – influences with the level of pleasure foreseen and experienced by the consumer. Study 1 analyzes the influence of negative (vs. positive surprise on the consumer’s post-purchase hedonic adaptation expectation. Results showed that negative surprise influences the intensity of adaptation, augmenting its strength. Study 2 verifies the influence of negative (vs positive surprise over hedonic adaptation. The findings suggested that negative surprise makes adaptation happen more intensively and faster as time goes by, which brings consequences to companies and consumers in the post-purchase process, such as satisfaction and loyalty.

  2. A Dichotomic Analysis of the Surprise Examination Paradox

    OpenAIRE

    Franceschi, Paul

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents a dichotomic analysis of the surprise examination paradox. In section 1, I analyse the surprise notion in detail. I introduce then in section 2, the distinction between a monist and dichotomic analysis of the paradox. I also present there a dichotomy leading to distinguish two basically and structurally different versions of the paradox, respectively based on a conjoint and a disjoint definition of the surprise. In section 3, I describe the solution to SEP corresponding to...

  3. Potential Impact of Large Scale Abstraction on the Quality of Shallow ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PRO

    Significant increase in crop production would not, however, be ... sounding) using Geonics EM34-3 and Abem SAS300C Terrameter to determine the aquifer (fresh water lens) ..... Final report on environmental impact assessment of large scale.

  4. Mare Orientale: Widely Accepted Large Impact or a Regular Tectonic Depression?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kochemasov, G. G.

    2018-04-01

    Mare Orientale is one of the critical features on Moon surface explaining its tectonics. The impact origin of it is widely accepted, but an attentive examination shows that this large Mare is a part of endogenous tectonic structure, not a random impact.

  5. Older Galaxy Pair Has Surprisingly Youthful Glow

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site] Poster Version A pair of interacting galaxies might be experiencing the galactic equivalent of a mid-life crisis. For some reason, the pair, called Arp 82, didn't make their stars early on as is typical of most galaxies. Instead, they got a second wind later in life -- about 2 billion years ago -- and started pumping out waves of new stars as if they were young again. Arp 82 is an interacting pair of galaxies with a strong bridge and a long tail. NGC 2535 is the big galaxy and NGC 2536 is its smaller companion. The disk of the main galaxy looks like an eye, with a bright 'pupil' in the center and oval-shaped 'eyelids.' Dramatic 'beads on a string' features are visible as chains of evenly spaced star-formation complexes along the eyelids. These are presumably the result of large-scale gaseous shocks from a grazing encounter. The colors of this galaxy indicate that the observed stars are young to intermediate in age, around 2 million to 2 billion years old, much less than the age of the universe (13.7 billion years). The puzzle is: why didn't Arp 82 form many stars earlier, like most galaxies of that mass range? Scientifically, it is an oddball and provides a relatively nearby lab for studying the age of intermediate-mass galaxies. This picture is a composite captured by Spitzer's infrared array camera with light at wavelength 8 microns shown in red, NASA's Galaxy Evolution Explorer combined 1530 and 2310 Angstroms shown in blue, and the Southeastern Association for Research in Astronomy Observatory light at 6940 Angstroms shown in green.

  6. The Value of Surprising Findings for Research on Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    JS Armstrong

    2004-01-01

    In the work of Armstrong (Journal of Business Research, 2002), I examined empirical research on the scientific process and related these to marketing science. The findings of some studies were surprising. In this reply, I address surprising findings and other issues raised by commentators.

  7. Sparse deconvolution for the large-scale ill-posed inverse problem of impact force reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Baijie; Zhang, Xingwu; Gao, Jiawei; Liu, Ruonan; Chen, Xuefeng

    2017-01-01

    Most previous regularization methods for solving the inverse problem of force reconstruction are to minimize the l2-norm of the desired force. However, these traditional regularization methods such as Tikhonov regularization and truncated singular value decomposition, commonly fail to solve the large-scale ill-posed inverse problem in moderate computational cost. In this paper, taking into account the sparse characteristic of impact force, the idea of sparse deconvolution is first introduced to the field of impact force reconstruction and a general sparse deconvolution model of impact force is constructed. Second, a novel impact force reconstruction method based on the primal-dual interior point method (PDIPM) is proposed to solve such a large-scale sparse deconvolution model, where minimizing the l2-norm is replaced by minimizing the l1-norm. Meanwhile, the preconditioned conjugate gradient algorithm is used to compute the search direction of PDIPM with high computational efficiency. Finally, two experiments including the small-scale or medium-scale single impact force reconstruction and the relatively large-scale consecutive impact force reconstruction are conducted on a composite wind turbine blade and a shell structure to illustrate the advantage of PDIPM. Compared with Tikhonov regularization, PDIPM is more efficient, accurate and robust whether in the single impact force reconstruction or in the consecutive impact force reconstruction.

  8. Corrugator Activity Confirms Immediate Negative Affect in Surprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sascha eTopolinski

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The emotion of surprise entails a complex of immediate responses, such as cognitive interruption, attention allocation to, and more systematic processing of the surprising stimulus. All these processes serve the ultimate function to increase processing depth and thus cognitively master the surprising stimulus. The present account introduces phasic negative affect as the underlying mechanism responsible for these consequences. Surprising stimuli are schema-discrepant and thus entail cognitive disfluency, which elicits immediate negative affect. This affect in turn works like a phasic cognitive tuning switching the current processing mode from more automatic and heuristic to more systematic and reflective processing. Directly testing the initial elicitation of negative affect by suprising events, the present experiment presented high and low surprising neutral trivia statements to N = 28 participants while assessing their spontaneous facial expressions via facial electromyography. High compared to low suprising trivia elicited higher corrugator activity, indicative of negative affect and mental effort, while leaving zygomaticus (positive affect and frontalis (cultural surprise expression activity unaffected. Future research shall investigate the mediating role of negative affect in eliciting surprise-related outcomes.

  9. Modeling the impact of large-scale energy conversion systems on global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, J.

    There are three energy options which could satisfy a projected energy requirement of about 30 TW and these are the solar, nuclear and (to a lesser extent) coal options. Climate models can be used to assess the impact of large scale deployment of these options. The impact of waste heat has been assessed using energy balance models and general circulation models (GCMs). Results suggest that the impacts are significant when the heat imput is very high and studies of more realistic scenarios are required. Energy balance models, radiative-convective models and a GCM have been used to study the impact of doubling the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. State-of-the-art models estimate a surface temperature increase of 1.5-3.0 0 C with large amplification near the poles, but much uncertainty remains. Very few model studies have been made of the impact of particles on global climate, more information on the characteristics of particle input are required. The impact of large-scale deployment of solar energy conversion systems has received little attention but model studies suggest that large scale changes in surface characteristics associated with such systems (surface heat balance, roughness and hydrological characteristics and ocean surface temperature) could have significant global climatic effects. (Auth.)

  10. Surprise Gift” Purchases of Small Electric Appliances: A Pilot Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Vanhamme (Joëlle); C.J.P.M. de Bont (Cees)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractUnderstanding decision-making processes for gifts is of strategic importance for companies selling small electrical appliances as gifts account for a large part of their sales. Among all gifts, the ones that are surprising are the most valued by recipients. However, research about

  11. A comparison of the aquatic impacts of large hydro and small hydro projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Lara A.

    The expansion of small hydro development in British Columbia has raised concerns surrounding the effects of these projects, and the provincial government's decision to proceed with Site C has brought attention to the impacts of large hydro. Together, these decisions highlight that there are impacts associated with all energy development. My study examines the aquatic effects of large and small hydro projects using two case study sites: Site C and the Upper Harrison Water Power Project. I first determine the aquatic effects of each of the case study sites. Next, I use existing literature and benefits transfer to determine the monetary value of these effects. My results suggest that, with mitigation, small hydro projects have less of an effect on the environment than a large hydro project per unit of electricity. I also describe the implications of my study in the context of current British Columbia energy policy. Keywords: hydropower; aquatic effects. Subject Terms: environmental impact assessment; benefits transfer.

  12. Lithium in tektites and impact glasses: Implications for sources, histories and large impacts

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Magna, T.; Deutsch, A.; Mezger, K.; Skála, Roman; Seitz, H.-M.; Mizera, Jiří; Řanda, Zdeněk

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 75, č. 8 (2011), s. 2137-2158 ISSN 0016-7037 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/09/0991 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30130516; CEZ:AV0Z10480505 Keywords : crater * glass * isotopic composition * isotopic fractionation * lithium * lithology * mafic rock * moldavite * suevite * tektite * trace element Subject RIV: DD - Geochemistry Impact factor: 4.259, year: 2011

  13. Environmental impact evaluation from large energy projects; Avaliacao de impacto ambiental de grandes projetos energeticos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uribe, Alberto [Bahia Univ., Salvador, BA (Brazil)

    1985-12-31

    This paper builds up theoretical framework and methodological approaches to assess environmental impacts from large energy projects. It aims towards the definition of concrete tools, and technical proceedings to allow identification and quantification (or weighing) of effects on the natural and social environment. The environmental impacts assessment, (EIA), studies are described as important instruments in planning and in the choice of alternative energy policies. (author). 15 refs., 2 figs

  14. Managing Uncertainity: Soviet Views on Deception, Surprise, and Control

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hull, Andrew

    1989-01-01

    .... In the first two cases (deception and surprise), the emphasis is on how the Soviets seek to sow uncertainty in the minds of the enemy and how the Soviets then plan to use that uncertainty to gain military advantage...

  15. Analysis of environmental impact assessment for large-scale X-ray medical equipments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu Jin; Pei Chengkai

    2011-01-01

    Based on an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) project, this paper elaborates the basic analysis essentials of EIA for the sales project of large-scale X-ray medical equipment, and provides the analysis procedure of environmental impact and dose estimation method under normal and accident conditions. The key points of EIA for the sales project of large-scale X-ray medical equipment include the determination of pollution factor and management limit value according to the project's actual situation, the utilization of various methods of assessment and prediction such as analogy, actual measurement and calculation to analyze, monitor, calculate and predict the pollution during normal and accident condition. (authors)

  16. Dividend announcements reconsidered: Dividend changes versus dividend surprises

    OpenAIRE

    Andres, Christian; Betzer, André; van den Bongard, Inga; Haesner, Christian; Theissen, Erik

    2012-01-01

    This paper reconsiders the issue of share price reactions to dividend announcements. Previous papers rely almost exclusively on a naive dividend model in which the dividend change is used as a proxy for the dividend surprise. We use the difference between the actual dividend and the analyst consensus forecast as obtained from I/B/E/S as a proxy for the dividend surprise. Using data from Germany, we find significant share price reactions after dividend announcements. Once we control for analys...

  17. The Surprise Examination Paradox and the Second Incompleteness Theorem

    OpenAIRE

    Kritchman, Shira; Raz, Ran

    2010-01-01

    We give a new proof for Godel's second incompleteness theorem, based on Kolmogorov complexity, Chaitin's incompleteness theorem, and an argument that resembles the surprise examination paradox. We then go the other way around and suggest that the second incompleteness theorem gives a possible resolution of the surprise examination paradox. Roughly speaking, we argue that the flaw in the derivation of the paradox is that it contains a hidden assumption that one can prove the consistency of the...

  18. Impact factors for Reggeon-gluon transition in N=4 SYM with large number of colours

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fadin, V.S., E-mail: fadin@inp.nsk.su [Budker Institute of Nuclear Physics of SD RAS, 630090 Novosibirsk (Russian Federation); Novosibirsk State University, 630090 Novosibirsk (Russian Federation); Fiore, R., E-mail: roberto.fiore@cs.infn.it [Dipartimento di Fisica, Università della Calabria, and Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Gruppo collegato di Cosenza, Arcavacata di Rende, I-87036 Cosenza (Italy)

    2014-06-27

    We calculate impact factors for Reggeon-gluon transition in supersymmetric Yang–Mills theory with four supercharges at large number of colours N{sub c}. In the next-to-leading order impact factors are not uniquely defined and must accord with BFKL kernels and energy scales. We obtain the impact factor corresponding to the kernel and the energy evolution parameter, which is invariant under Möbius transformation in momentum space, and show that it is also Möbius invariant up to terms taken into account in the BDS ansatz.

  19. Exotic minerals in 3500 million year old rocks: evidence for large meteorite impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byerly, G.R.; Lowe, D.R.; Asaro, F.

    1988-01-01

    A relatively small area of mountainous terrain in southern Africa provides scientists from all over the world a look at what the surface of the earth was like three and a half billion years ago. The Barberton Mountains lie astride the borders of the Republic of South Africa, Mozambique, and the Kingdom of Swaziland. The discovery of several widely distributed deposits that were likely formed by major terrestrial impacts of large extraterrestrial bodies during this early period of earth's history is reported. The Barberton impact deposits are being studied by electron microscopy. The impact deposits were examined for minerals that show the effects of shock metamorphism or compositions unusual in terrestrial rocks

  20. Analysis of impact of large commercial aircraft on a prestressed containment building

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Kyoungsoo, E-mail: kylee@pvamu.edu [Center for Energy and Environmental Sustainability, Prairie View A and M University, Prairie view, TX, 77446 (United States); Han, Sang Eul, E-mail: hsang@inha.ac.kr [Department of Architectural Engineering, School of Architecture, Inha University, 253 Yonghyundong Nam-gu, Incheon, 402-751 (Korea, Republic of); Hong, Jung-Wuk, E-mail: j.hong@kaist.ac.kr [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, KAIST, 373-1 Guseon-dong, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon, 305-701 (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-12-15

    Highlights: • Aircraft impact analyses are performed using the missile–target interaction method. • A large commercial B747 aircraft is considered with erosion effect. • The rigid wall impact test shows the validity of the developed aircraft model. • The parametric studies on the fictitious containment building are performed. • The plastic failure of the target is governed by the impulse of aircraft at the first momentum peak. - Abstract: In this paper, the results of nonlinear dynamic analyses of a concrete containment building under extreme loads are presented. The impact of a large commercial B747 airliner is investigated as the extreme load, and a rigid wall impact test is performed using commercial nonlinear finite element codes. The impact forces exerted by the aircraft are verified compared with the time-dependent impact force provided by OECD/NEA (2002), which was calculated based on the so-called Riera method. The rigid wall impact analysis shows that the finite element model of a B747 is appropriate for the purpose of the aircraft crash analysis exposed to the external hazard of “Beyond Design-Basis Events” defined by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Finally, the applicability of this methodology is further studied and verified by conducting parametric studies on the critical infrastructures of nuclear power plant containment structures.

  1. Analysis of impact of large commercial aircraft on a prestressed containment building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Kyoungsoo; Han, Sang Eul; Hong, Jung-Wuk

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Aircraft impact analyses are performed using the missile–target interaction method. • A large commercial B747 aircraft is considered with erosion effect. • The rigid wall impact test shows the validity of the developed aircraft model. • The parametric studies on the fictitious containment building are performed. • The plastic failure of the target is governed by the impulse of aircraft at the first momentum peak. - Abstract: In this paper, the results of nonlinear dynamic analyses of a concrete containment building under extreme loads are presented. The impact of a large commercial B747 airliner is investigated as the extreme load, and a rigid wall impact test is performed using commercial nonlinear finite element codes. The impact forces exerted by the aircraft are verified compared with the time-dependent impact force provided by OECD/NEA (2002), which was calculated based on the so-called Riera method. The rigid wall impact analysis shows that the finite element model of a B747 is appropriate for the purpose of the aircraft crash analysis exposed to the external hazard of “Beyond Design-Basis Events” defined by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Finally, the applicability of this methodology is further studied and verified by conducting parametric studies on the critical infrastructures of nuclear power plant containment structures

  2. Impact of spatial kinetics in severe accident analysis for a large HWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, E.E.

    1994-01-01

    The impact on spatial kinetics on the analysis of severe accidents initiated by the unprotected withdrawal of one or more control rods is investigated for a large heavy water reactor. Large inter- and intra-assembly power shifts are observed, and the importance of detailed geometrical modeling of fuel assemblies is demonstrated. Neglect of space-time effects is shown to lead to erroneous estimates of safety margins, and of accident consequences in the event safety margins are exceeded. The results and conclusions are typical of what would be expected for any large, loosely coupled core

  3. The Ecological Impacts of Large-Scale Agrofuel Monoculture Production Systems in the Americas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altieri, Miguel A.

    2009-01-01

    This article examines the expansion of agrofuels in the Americas and the ecological impacts associated with the technologies used in the production of large-scale monocultures of corn and soybeans. In addition to deforestation and displacement of lands devoted to food crops due to expansion of agrofuels, the massive use of transgenic crops and…

  4. The Impact of a Flipped Classroom Model of Learning on a Large Undergraduate Statistics Class

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielson, Perpetua Lynne; Bean, Nathan William Bean; Larsen, Ross Allen Andrew

    2018-01-01

    We examine the impact of a flipped classroom model of learning on student performance and satisfaction in a large undergraduate introductory statistics class. Two professors each taught a lecture-section and a flipped-class section. Using MANCOVA, a linear combination of final exam scores, average quiz scores, and course ratings was compared for…

  5. Discussion on the impact of large commercial airplane to nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang Bo

    2010-01-01

    Briefly introducing the 10CFR50.150, draft guide and technical document of United States which is issued recently by NRC and NEI on impact of large commercial airplane to nuclear power plant, introducing comments from society and public and responses from NRC, and briefly discussing relevant issues. (author)

  6. Tying Extinction Events to Comet Impacts Large Enough to Cause an Extinction in Themselves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgener, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    Comets over 35 km in size impacting Earth will create vast fireballs, and will boil large parts of the oceans, causing extinction events in themselves. They will likely provide enough energy to shatter the crust and eject large masses of molten rock from the mantle, forming traps. Traps are clearly associated with extinction events, but are not expected to cause extinctions. While Chicxulub is recognized to have occurred at the time of the K/Pg boundary layer, it is recognized as being too small in itself to cause an extinction. Are large comet impacts likely? The Kuiper belt has more than 100,000 objects over 100 km in diameter and millions over 10 km. Typically their orbits are less stable than asteroid orbits due to large bodies such as Pluto moving through the belt. The asteroid belt has only 10,000 objects over 10 km diameter. Comet impacts should be more common than asteroid impacts, yet none of the recognized craters are expected to be due to comets. There are many features on Earth that are poorly explained by Plate Tectonics that would be well explained if they were considered to be comet impact craters. A consideration of the Black Sea and the Tarim Basin will show that impact interpretations are a better fit than the present Plate Tectonics' explanations. Both basins are in the midst of mountain building from plate collisions, but are themselves not being disturbed by the plate collisions. Both are ellipses angled at 23.4 degrees to the equator, matching the angle expected for a low angle impact from a comet traveling in the ecliptic. Both are too deep at 15 km depths to be standard oceans (typically 5 km deep). Both are filled with horizontal layers of sediments, undisturbed by the mountain building occurring at the edges. Both have thin crusts and high Moho boundaries. Both have thin lithosphere. Yet both show GPS movement of the land around them moving away from them, as though they were much thicker and stronger than the surrounding land. The Tarim

  7. The impacts of household retrofit and domestic energy efficiency schemes: A large scale, ex post evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webber, Phil; Gouldson, Andy; Kerr, Niall

    2015-01-01

    There is widespread interest in the ability of retrofit schemes to shape domestic energy use in order to tackle fuel poverty and reduce carbon emissions. Although much has been written on the topic, there have been few large-scale ex post evaluations of the actual impacts of such schemes. We address this by assessing domestic energy use before and after the Kirklees Warm Zone (KWZ) scheme, which by fitting insulation in 51,000 homes in the 2007–2010 period is one of the largest retrofit schemes completed in the UK to date. To do this, we develop and apply a new methodology that isolates the impacts of retrofit activity from broader background trends in energy use. The results suggest that the actual impacts of the KWZ scheme have been higher than predicted, and that the scale of any performance gaps or rebound effects have been lower than has often been assumed. They also suggest that impacts on energy use in lower income areas are consistent with predictions, but that impacts in middle and higher income areas are higher than predicted. These findings support the case for the wider and/or accelerated adoption of domestic retrofit schemes in other contexts. -- Highlights: •A large scale, ex post evaluation of the impacts of a household retrofit scheme. •A new methodology to separate retrofit impacts from background trends. •Shows impacts of retrofit have been 1.2–1.7 times higher than predicted. •Impacts as predicted in lower income areas, higher in middle and upper income areas. •Findings support the case for the wider and faster adoption of domestic retrofit

  8. Socioeconomic impacts of large-scale developments: implications for high-level nuclear waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murdock, S.H.; Leistritz, F.L.; Hamm, R.R.

    1983-01-01

    High-level nuclear waste repositories will likely be located in sparsely settled rural areas in the US. These projects will significantly affect the economic, demographic, public service, fiscal, and social (the socioeconomic) dimensions of those rural areas. The impacts and means of mitigating them thus require careful analysis. This paper examines some of the potential socioeconomic impacts likely to occur in rural areas as a result of repository siting and development, and it describes some of the characteristics of mitigation programs that are likely to be necessary, if the impacts are to be addressed. Both (1) standard impacts, those resulting from the fact that, like many other large-scale developments, repositories will involve a substantial number of new workers and residents (relative to the size of existing communities), and (2) special impacts, those resulting from the fact that repositories store radioactive materials, are examined. The discussion indicates that economic, demographic, public service, fiscal, and social impacts (standard and special) of these repositories will be substantial and problematic in many cases. Unless the impacts are effectively addressed with carefully planned and well financed mitigation efforts that insure that high-quality planning information is provided to local residents, and that local residents are involved in impact planning and management throughout the siting and development process, repository siting is unlikely to be effectively and equitably achieved. 44 references

  9. Impacts of large-scale offshore wind farm integration on power systems through VSC-HVDC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Hongzhi; Chen, Zhe

    2013-01-01

    The potential of offshore wind energy has been commonly recognized and explored globally. Many countries have implemented and planned offshore wind farms to meet their increasing electricity demands and public environmental appeals, especially in Europe. With relatively less space limitation......, an offshore wind farm could have a capacity rating to hundreds of MWs or even GWs that is large enough to compete with conventional power plants. Thus the impacts of a large offshore wind farm on power system operation and security should be thoroughly studied and understood. This paper investigates...... the impacts of integrating a large-scale offshore wind farm into the transmission system of a power grid through VSC-HVDC connection. The concerns are focused on steady-state voltage stability, dynamic voltage stability and transient angle stability. Simulation results based on an exemplary power system...

  10. The impact of land reform on the status of large carnivores in Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samual T. Williams

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Large carnivores are decreasing in number due to growing pressure from an expanding human population. It is increasingly recognised that state-protected conservation areas are unlikely to be sufficient to protect viable populations of large carnivores, and that private land will be central to conservation efforts. In 2000, a fast-track land reform programme (FTLRP was initiated in Zimbabwe, ostensibly to redress the racial imbalance in land ownership, but which also had the potential to break up large areas of carnivore habitat on private land. To date, research has focused on the impact of the FTLRP process on the different human communities, while impacts on wildlife have been overlooked. Here we provide the first systematic assessment of the impact of the FTLRP on the status of large carnivores. Spoor counts were conducted across private, resettled and communal land use types in order to estimate the abundance of large carnivores, and to determine how this had been affected by land reform. The density of carnivore spoor differed significantly between land use types, and was lower on resettlement land than on private land, suggesting that the resettlement process has resulted in a substantial decline in carnivore abundance. Habitat loss and high levels of poaching in and around resettlement areas are the most likely causes. The FTLRP resulted in the large-scale conversion of land that was used sustainably and productively for wildlife into unsustainable, unproductive agricultural land uses. We recommended that models of land reform should consider the type of land available, that existing expertise in land management should be retained where possible, and that resettlement programmes should be carefully planned in order to minimise the impacts on wildlife and on people.

  11. An efficient community detection algorithm using greedy surprise maximization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Yawen; Jia, Caiyan; Yu, Jian

    2014-01-01

    Community detection is an important and crucial problem in complex network analysis. Although classical modularity function optimization approaches are widely used for identifying communities, the modularity function (Q) suffers from its resolution limit. Recently, the surprise function (S) was experimentally proved to be better than the Q function. However, up until now, there has been no algorithm available to perform searches to directly determine the maximal surprise values. In this paper, considering the superiority of the S function over the Q function, we propose an efficient community detection algorithm called AGSO (algorithm based on greedy surprise optimization) and its improved version FAGSO (fast-AGSO), which are based on greedy surprise optimization and do not suffer from the resolution limit. In addition, (F)AGSO does not need the number of communities K to be specified in advance. Tests on experimental networks show that (F)AGSO is able to detect optimal partitions in both simple and even more complex networks. Moreover, algorithms based on surprise maximization perform better than those algorithms based on modularity maximization, including Blondel–Guillaume–Lambiotte–Lefebvre (BGLL), Clauset–Newman–Moore (CNM) and the other state-of-the-art algorithms such as Infomap, order statistics local optimization method (OSLOM) and label propagation algorithm (LPA). (paper)

  12. On a digital wireless impact-monitoring network for large-scale composite structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Shenfang; Mei, Hanfei; Qiu, Lei; Ren, Yuanqiang

    2014-01-01

    Impact, which may occur during manufacture, service or maintenance, is one of the major concerns to be monitored throughout the lifetime of aircraft composite structures. Aiming at monitoring impacts online while minimizing the weight added to the aircraft to meet the strict limitations of aerospace engineering, this paper puts forward a new digital wireless network based on miniaturized wireless digital impact-monitoring nodes developed for large-scale composite structures. In addition to investigations on the design methods of the network architecture, time synchronization and implementation method, a conflict resolution method based on the feature parameters of digital sequences is first presented to address impact localization conflicts when several nodes are arranged close together. To verify the feasibility and stability of the wireless network, experiments are performed on a complex aircraft composite wing box and an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) composite wing. Experimental results show the successful design of the presented network. (paper)

  13. Large discrepancies observed in theoretical studies of ion-impact ionization of the atomic targets at large momentum transfer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghorbani, Omid; Ghanbari-Adivi, Ebrahim

    2017-12-01

    A full quantum mechanical version of the three-body distorted wave-eikonal initial state (3DW-EIS) theory is developed to study of the single ionization of the atomic targets by ion impact at different momentum transfers. The calculations are performed both with and without including the internuclear interaction in the transition amplitude. For 16 \\text{Mev} \\text{O}7+ \\text{-He}~(1s2 ) and 24 \\text{Mev} \\text{O}8+\\text{-Li}~(2s ) collisions, the emission of the active electron into the scattering plane is considered and the fully differential cross-sections (FDCSs) are calculated for a fixed value of the ejected electron energy and a variety of momentum transfers. For both the specified collision systems, the obtained results are compared with the experimental data and with the cross-sections obtained using the semi-classical continuum distorted wave-eikonal initial state (CDW-EIS) approach. For 16 \\text{Mev} \\text{O}7+ \\text{-He}~(1s^2) , we also compared the results with those of a four-body three-Coulomb-wave (3CW) model. In general, we find some large discrepancies between the results obtained by different theories. These discrepancies are much more significant at larger momentum transfers. Also, for some ranges of the electron emission angles the results are much more sensitive to the internuclear interaction to be either turned on or off.

  14. Impact of large-scale tides on cosmological distortions via redshift-space power spectrum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akitsu, Kazuyuki; Takada, Masahiro

    2018-03-01

    Although large-scale perturbations beyond a finite-volume survey region are not direct observables, these affect measurements of clustering statistics of small-scale (subsurvey) perturbations in large-scale structure, compared with the ensemble average, via the mode-coupling effect. In this paper we show that a large-scale tide induced by scalar perturbations causes apparent anisotropic distortions in the redshift-space power spectrum of galaxies in a way depending on an alignment between the tide, wave vector of small-scale modes and line-of-sight direction. Using the perturbation theory of structure formation, we derive a response function of the redshift-space power spectrum to large-scale tide. We then investigate the impact of large-scale tide on estimation of cosmological distances and the redshift-space distortion parameter via the measured redshift-space power spectrum for a hypothetical large-volume survey, based on the Fisher matrix formalism. To do this, we treat the large-scale tide as a signal, rather than an additional source of the statistical errors, and show that a degradation in the parameter is restored if we can employ the prior on the rms amplitude expected for the standard cold dark matter (CDM) model. We also discuss whether the large-scale tide can be constrained at an accuracy better than the CDM prediction, if the effects up to a larger wave number in the nonlinear regime can be included.

  15. Dynamical Origin and Terrestrial Impact Flux of Large Near-Earth Asteroids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nesvorný, David; Roig, Fernando

    2018-01-01

    Dynamical models of the asteroid delivery from the main belt suggest that the current impact flux of diameter D> 10 km asteroids on the Earth is ≃0.5–1 Gyr‑1. Studies of the Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) population find a much higher flux, with ≃ 7 D> 10 km asteroid impacts per Gyr. Here we show that this problem is rooted in the application of impact probability of small NEAs (≃1.5 Gyr‑1 per object), whose population is well characterized, to large NEAs. In reality, large NEAs evolve from the main belt by different escape routes, have a different orbital distribution, and lower impact probabilities (0.8 ± 0.3 Gyr‑1 per object) than small NEAs. In addition, we find that the current population of two D> 10 km NEAs (Ganymed and Eros) is a slight fluctuation over the long-term average of 1.1+/- 0.5 D> 10 km NEAs in a steady state. These results have important implications for our understanding of the occurrence of the K/T-scale impacts on the terrestrial worlds.

  16. Impact of the Dominant Large-scale Teleconnections on Winter Temperature Variability over East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong

    2013-01-01

    Monthly mean geopotential height for the past 33 DJF seasons archived in Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis is decomposed into the large-scale teleconnection patterns to explain their impacts on winter temperature variability over East Asia. Following Arctic Oscillation (AO) that explains the largest variance, East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR), West Pacific (WP) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are identified as the first four leading modes that significantly explain East Asian winter temperature variation. While the northern part of East Asia north of 50N is prevailed by AO and EA/WR impacts, temperature in the midlatitudes (30N-50N), which include Mongolia, northeastern China, Shandong area, Korea, and Japan, is influenced by combined effect of the four leading teleconnections. ENSO impact on average over 33 winters is relatively weaker than the impact of the other three teleconnections. WP impact, which has received less attention than ENSO in earlier studies, characterizes winter temperatures over Korea, Japan, and central to southern China region south of 30N mainly by advective process from the Pacific. Upper level wave activity fluxes reveal that, for the AO case, the height and circulation anomalies affecting midlatitude East Asian winter temperature is mainly located at higher latitudes north of East Asia. Distribution of the fluxes also explains that the stationary wave train associated with EA/WR propagates southeastward from the western Russia, affecting the East Asian winter temperature. Investigation on the impact of each teleconnection for the selected years reveals that the most dominant teleconnection over East Asia is not the same at all years, indicating a great deal of interannual variability. Comparison in temperature anomaly distributions between observation and temperature anomaly constructed using the combined effect of four leading teleconnections clearly show a reasonable consistency between

  17. Large Yukawa-coupling impact on H+ decay in the MSSM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartl, A.; Hidaka, K.; Kizukuri, Y.; Kon, T.; Majerotto, W.

    1994-01-01

    The decay of the charged Higgs boson H + is comprehensively studied in the minimal supersymmetric model. We find that the supersymmetric mode (t tilde)(b tilde and bar) can overwhelmingly dominate the H + decay in a substantially wide (and still allowed) range of the model parameters due to the large t- and b- quark Yukawa couplings and the large t tilde- and b tilde- mixings and that this mode has very distinctive signatures compared to the 'conventional' dominant modes τ + ν τ and tb-bar. This could shed a crucial impact on the H + search at future colliders. (author)

  18. Large-scale melting and impact mixing on early-formed asteroids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greenwood, Richard; Barrat, J.-A.; Scott, Edward Robert Dalton

    Large-scale melting of asteroids and planetesimals is now known to have taken place ex-tremely early in solar system history [1]. The first-generation bodies produced by this process would have been subject to rapid collisional reprocessing, leading in most cases to fragmentation and/or accretion...... the relationship between the different groups of achondrites [3, 4]. Here we present new oxygen isotope evidence con-cerning the role of large-scale melting and subsequent impact mixing in the evolution of three important achondrite groups: the main-group pallasites, meso-siderites and HEDs....

  19. Surprise and Memory as Indices of Concrete Operational Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achenbach, Thomas M.

    1973-01-01

    Normal and retarded children's use of color, number, length and continuous quantity as attributes of identification was assessed by presenting them with contrived changes in three properties. Surprise and correct memory responses for color preceded those to number, which preceded logical verbal responses to a conventional number-conservation task.…

  20. Effects of surprisal and locality on Danish sentence processing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balling, Laura Winther; Kizach, Johannes

    2017-01-01

    An eye-tracking experiment in Danish investigates two dominant accounts of sentence processing: locality-based theories that predict a processing advantage for sentences where the distance between the major syntactic heads is minimized, and the surprisal theory which predicts that processing time...

  1. Things may not be as expected: Surprising findings when updating ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-05-14

    May 14, 2015 ... Things may not be as expected: Surprising findings when updating .... (done at the end of three months after the first review month) ..... Allen G. Getting beyond form filling: The role of institutional governance in human research ...

  2. Automation surprise : results of a field survey of Dutch pilots

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, R.J.; Hurts, Karel

    2017-01-01

    Automation surprise (AS) has often been associated with aviation safety incidents. Although numerous laboratory studies have been conducted, few data are available from routine flight operations. A survey among a representative sample of 200 Dutch airline pilots was used to determine the prevalence

  3. Modelling of risk events with uncertain likelihoods and impacts in large infrastructure projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

    2010-01-01

    to prevent future budget overruns. One of the central ideas is to introduce improved risk management processes and the present paper addresses this particular issue. A relevant cost function in terms of unit prices and quantities is developed and an event impact matrix with uncertain impacts from independent......This paper presents contributions to the mathematical core of risk and uncertainty management in compliance with the principles of New Budgeting laid out in 2008 by the Danish Ministry of Transport to be used in large infrastructure projects. Basically, the new principles are proposed in order...... uncertain risk events is used to calculate the total uncertain risk budget. Cost impacts from the individual risk events on the individual project activities are kept precisely track of in order to comply with the requirements of New Budgeting. Additionally, uncertain likelihoods for the occurrence of risk...

  4. Impact of biology knowledge on the conservation and management of large pelagic sharks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokoi, Hiroki; Ijima, Hirotaka; Ohshimo, Seiji; Yokawa, Kotaro

    2017-09-06

    Population growth rate, which depends on several biological parameters, is valuable information for the conservation and management of pelagic sharks, such as blue and shortfin mako sharks. However, reported biological parameters for estimating the population growth rates of these sharks differ by sex and display large variability. To estimate the appropriate population growth rate and clarify relationships between growth rate and relevant biological parameters, we developed a two-sex age-structured matrix population model and estimated the population growth rate using combinations of biological parameters. We addressed elasticity analysis and clarified the population growth rate sensitivity. For the blue shark, the estimated median population growth rate was 0.384 with a range of minimum and maximum values of 0.195-0.533, whereas those values of the shortfin mako shark were 0.102 and 0.007-0.318, respectively. The maturity age of male sharks had the largest impact for blue sharks, whereas that of female sharks had the largest impact for shortfin mako sharks. Hypotheses for the survival process of sharks also had a large impact on the population growth rate estimation. Both shark maturity age and survival rate were based on ageing validation data, indicating the importance of validating the quality of these data for the conservation and management of large pelagic sharks.

  5. Research on resistance characteristics of YBCO tape under short-time DC large current impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhifeng; Yang, Jiabin; Qiu, Qingquan; Zhang, Guomin; Lin, Liangzhen

    2017-06-01

    Research of the resistance characteristics of YBCO tape under short-time DC large current impact is the foundation of the developing DC superconducting fault current limiter (SFCL) for voltage source converter-based high voltage direct current system (VSC-HVDC), which is one of the valid approaches to solve the problems of renewable energy integration. SFCL can limit DC short-circuit and enhance the interrupting capabilities of DC circuit breakers. In this paper, under short-time DC large current impacts, the resistance features of naked tape of YBCO tape are studied to find the resistance - temperature change rule and the maximum impact current. The influence of insulation for the resistance - temperature characteristics of YBCO tape is studied by comparison tests with naked tape and insulating tape in 77 K. The influence of operating temperature on the tape is also studied under subcooled liquid nitrogen condition. For the current impact security of YBCO tape, the critical current degradation and top temperature are analyzed and worked as judgment standards. The testing results is helpful for in developing SFCL in VSC-HVDC.

  6. Environmental Impacts From the Installation and Operation of Large-scale Solar Power Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fthenakis, V.; Turney, Damon

    2011-04-23

    Large-scale solar power plants are being developed at a rapid rate, and are setting up to use thousands or millions of acres of land globally. The environmental issues related to the installation and operation phases of such facilities have not, so far, been addressed comprehensively in the literature. Here we identify and appraise 32 impacts from these phases, under the themes of land use intensity, human health and well-being, plant and animal life, geohydrological resources, and climate change. Our appraisals assume that electricity generated by new solar power facilities will displace electricity from traditional U.S. generation technologies. Altogether we find 22 of the considered 32 impacts to be beneficial. Of the remaining 10 impacts, 4 are neutral, and 6 require further research before they can be appraised. None of the impacts are negative relative to traditional power generation. We rank the impacts in terms of priority, and find all the high-priority impacts to be beneficial. In quantitative terms, large-scale solar power plants occupy the same or less land per kW h than coal power plant life cycles. Removal of forests to make space for solar power causes CO{sub 2} emissions as high as 36 g CO{sub 2} kW h{sup -1}, which is a significant contribution to the life cycle CO{sub 2} emissions of solar power, but is still low compared to CO{sub 2} emissions from coal-based electricity that are about 1100 g CO{sub 2} kW h{sup -1}.

  7. Output Control Technologies for a Large-scale PV System Considering Impacts on a Power Grid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuwayama, Akira

    The mega-solar demonstration project named “Verification of Grid Stabilization with Large-scale PV Power Generation systems” had been completed in March 2011 at Wakkanai, the northernmost city of Japan. The major objectives of this project were to evaluate adverse impacts of large-scale PV power generation systems connected to the power grid and develop output control technologies with integrated battery storage system. This paper describes the outline and results of this project. These results show the effectiveness of battery storage system and also proposed output control methods for a large-scale PV system to ensure stable operation of power grids. NEDO, New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization of Japan conducted this project and HEPCO, Hokkaido Electric Power Co., Inc managed the overall project.

  8. The Wibbly-Wobbly Moon: Rotational Dynamics of the Moon After Large Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keane, J. T.; Johnson, B. C.; Matsuyama, I.; Siegler, M.

    2017-12-01

    The spins of planets are not constant with time; they continuously evolve in response to both external and internal forces. One of the most dramatic ways a planet's spin can change is via impacts. Impacts change the planet's angular momentum, energy, and moments of inertia. These changes can have important consequences for the geology of the planet. For the well-studied case of the Moon, these repercussions include everything from changing the orientation of the magnetic field, controlling the geometry of fault networks, and altering the stability of volatiles (e.g. water ice) in permanently shadowed regions. While previous studies have investigated the dynamical effects of impacts on the Moon, most use simplistic models for the impact basin formation process—often only considering the impulsive change in the Moon's angular momentum, and occasionally the change in the Moon's moments of inertia from a simplified basin geometry (e.g. a cylindrical hole surrounded by a cylindrical ejecta blanket). These simplifications obscure some of the subtler and more complicated dynamics that occur in the aftermath of an impact. In this work, we present new model results for the rotational dynamics of the Moon after large, basin-forming impacts. We couple iSALE hydrocode simulations with the analytical and numerical formalisms of rotational dynamics. These simulations allow us to quantitatively track how different impact processes alter the Moon's moments of inertia, including basin formation, mantle uplift, impact heating, and ejecta-blanket emplacement. This unique combination of techniques enables us to more accurately track the spin of the Moon in the aftermath of these impacts, including periods of non-synchronous and non-principal-axis rotation, libration, and long-term reorientation (true polar wander). We find that the perturbation of the Moon's moments of inertia immediately after impact is several times larger than what is expected based on the present-day gravity

  9. The impact of Hurricane Sandy on the shoreface and inner shelf of Fire Island, New York: large bedform migration but limited erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goff, John A.; Flood, Roger D.; Austin, James A.; Schwab, William C.; Christensen, Beth A.; Browne, Cassandra M.; Denny, Jane F.; Baldwin, Wayne E.

    2015-01-01

    We investigate the impact of superstorm Sandy on the lower shoreface and inner shelf offshore the barrier island system of Fire Island, NY using before-and-after surveys involving swath bathymetry, backscatter and CHIRP acoustic reflection data. As sea level rises over the long term, the shoreface and inner shelf are eroded as barrier islands migrate landward; large storms like Sandy are thought to be a primary driver of this largely evolutionary process. The “before” data were collected in 2011 by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of a long-term investigation of the Fire Island barrier system. The “after” data were collected in January, 2013, ~two months after the storm. Surprisingly, no widespread erosional event was observed. Rather, the primary impact of Sandy on the shoreface and inner shelf was to force migration of major bedforms (sand ridges and sorted bedforms) 10’s of meters WSW alongshore, decreasing in migration distance with increasing water depth. Although greater in rate, this migratory behavior is no different than observations made over the 15-year span prior to the 2011 survey. Stratigraphic observations of buried, offshore-thinning fluvial channels indicate that long-term erosion of older sediments is focused in water depths ranging from the base of the shoreface (~13–16 m) to ~21 m on the inner shelf, which is coincident with the range of depth over which sand ridges and sorted bedforms migrated in response to Sandy. We hypothesize that bedform migration regulates erosion over these water depths and controls the formation of a widely observed transgressive ravinement; focusing erosion of older material occurs at the base of the stoss (upcurrent) flank of the bedforms. Secondary storm impacts include the formation of ephemeral hummocky bedforms and the deposition of a mud event layer.

  10. The impact of Hurricane Sandy on the shoreface and inner shelf of Fire Island, New York: Large bedform migration but limited erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goff, John A.; Flood, Roger D.; Austin, James A., Jr.; Schwab, William C.; Christensen, Beth; Browne, Cassandra M.; Denny, Jane F.; Baldwin, Wayne E.

    2015-04-01

    We investigate the impact of superstorm Sandy on the lower shoreface and inner shelf offshore the barrier island system of Fire Island, NY using before-and-after surveys involving swath bathymetry, backscatter and CHIRP acoustic reflection data. As sea level rises over the long term, the shoreface and inner shelf are eroded as barrier islands migrate landward; large storms like Sandy are thought to be a primary driver of this largely evolutionary process. The "before" data were collected in 2011 by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of a long-term investigation of the Fire Island barrier system. The "after" data were collected in January, 2013, ~two months after the storm. Surprisingly, no widespread erosional event was observed. Rather, the primary impact of Sandy on the shoreface and inner shelf was to force migration of major bedforms (sand ridges and sorted bedforms) 10's of meters WSW alongshore, decreasing in migration distance with increasing water depth. Although greater in rate, this migratory behavior is no different than observations made over the 15-year span prior to the 2011 survey. Stratigraphic observations of buried, offshore-thinning fluvial channels indicate that long-term erosion of older sediments is focused in water depths ranging from the base of the shoreface (~13-16 m) to ~21 m on the inner shelf, which is coincident with the range of depth over which sand ridges and sorted bedforms migrated in response to Sandy. We hypothesize that bedform migration regulates erosion over these water depths and controls the formation of a widely observed transgressive ravinement; focusing erosion of older material occurs at the base of the stoss (upcurrent) flank of the bedforms. Secondary storm impacts include the formation of ephemeral hummocky bedforms and the deposition of a mud event layer.

  11. The economics and environmental impacts of large-scale wind power in a carbon constrained world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decarolis, Joseph Frank

    Serious climate change mitigation aimed at stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 will require a radical shift to a decarbonized energy supply. The electric power sector will be a primary target for deep reductions in CO2 emissions because electric power plants are among the largest and most manageable point sources of emissions. With respect to new capacity, wind power is currently one of the most inexpensive ways to produce electricity without CO2 emissions and it may have a significant role to play in a carbon constrained world. Yet most research in the wind industry remains focused on near term issues, while energy system models that focus on century-long time horizons undervalue wind by imposing exogenous limits on growth. This thesis fills a critical gap in the literature by taking a closer look at the cost and environmental impacts of large-scale wind. Estimates of the average cost of wind generation---now roughly 4¢/kWh---do not address the cons arising from the spatial distribution and intermittency of wind. This thesis develops a theoretical framework for assessing the intermittency cost of wind. In addition, an economic characterization of a wind system is provided in which long-distance electricity transmission, storage, and gas turbines are used to supplement variable wind power output to meet a time-varying load. With somewhat optimistic assumptions about the cost of wind turbines, the use of wind to serve 50% of demand adds ˜1--2¢/kWh to the cost of electricity, a cost comparable to that of other large-scale low carbon technologies. This thesis also explores the environmental impacts posed by large-scale wind. Though avian mortality and noise caused controversy in the early years of wind development, improved technology and exhaustive siting assessments have minimized their impact. The aesthetic valuation of wind farms can be improved significantly with better design, siting, construction, and maintenance procedures, but opposition may

  12. Connecting above and below: the impacts of large wildlife loss and pastoralism on savanna carbon dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forbes, E. S.; Young, H. S.; Young, T.; Schimel, J.

    2016-12-01

    There is widespread evidence that large wildlife species contribute to ecosystem carbon efflux; however, their influence is not incorporated into traditional carbon models. As large wildlife loss continues in the Anthropocene and in the face of climate change, it becomes increasingly important to understand the impacts of their loss on ecosystem carbon. The charismatic, threatened wildlife in central Kenya's savanna provide an ideal framework for these questions. We compared differences in carbon efflux in the presence or absence of native herbivores and/or cattle, as a proxy for wildlife loss and the interaction of pastoralism. We measured carbon dynamics in situ with a closed-chamber system and microbial respiration rates in lab by incubating sampled soil. We discovered a significant effect of herbivore presence/absence on carbon efflux: incubated soils collected from plots with cattle only exhibit greater carbon accumulation and faster initial respiration rates than soils collected from plots with native herbivores and no cattle, native herbivores and cattle, and neither native herbivores nor cattle. When measured in situ, plots with no herbivores show higher efflux than plots with only native herbivores, and plots with both. The data also suggest that grazing pressure results in successively lower efflux. The differences in these studies imply that the impacts of large wildlife loss differ on microbial respiration as an isolated mechanism in ecosystem carbon exchange, and total carbon efflux. This is most likely because in situ efflux measurements encompass environmental variables as well as soil microbial respiration. The lab data suggest that cattle as the only herbivore causes greater soil microbial efflux compared to native herbivores alone, native herbivores with cattle, or no herbivores. The in situ data show that no herbivores results in increased carbon efflux, and suggest that increasing numbers of herbivores lowers efflux.These studies demonstrate

  13. Root causes and impacts of severe accidents at large nuclear power plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Högberg, Lars

    2013-04-01

    The root causes and impacts of three severe accidents at large civilian nuclear power plants are reviewed: the Three Mile Island accident in 1979, the Chernobyl accident in 1986, and the Fukushima Daiichi accident in 2011. Impacts include health effects, evacuation of contaminated areas as well as cost estimates and impacts on energy policies and nuclear safety work in various countries. It is concluded that essential objectives for reactor safety work must be: (1) to prevent accidents from developing into severe core damage, even if they are initiated by very unlikely natural or man-made events, and, recognizing that accidents with severe core damage may nevertheless occur; (2) to prevent large-scale and long-lived ground contamination by limiting releases of radioactive nuclides such as cesium to less than about 100 TBq. To achieve these objectives the importance of maintaining high global standards of safety management and safety culture cannot be emphasized enough. All three severe accidents discussed in this paper had their root causes in system deficiencies indicative of poor safety management and poor safety culture in both the nuclear industry and government authorities.

  14. Socio-cultural impacts of large-scale cruise tourism in Souq Mutrah, Sultanate of Oman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuela Gutberlet

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The following paper explores socio-cultural impacts of large-scale cruise liner tourism on the traditional bazaar (souq in the district of Mutrah. The souq is located opposite the port in the Omani capital Muscat. Large-scale cruise tourism in Muscat started only in 2004 and has increased in scale and numbers in the past years. 24 cruise vessels with around 7600 passengers arrived in Muscat in 2005. Seven years later 135 cruise liners carrying 257,000 tourists docked in Muscat. Due to this dramatic rise of international cruise ships, the socio-cultural impacts have increased for local residents, shop vendors/owners and tourists alike. To capture those socio-cultural impacts on Souq Mutrah, a survey of cruise tourists was conducted by a questionnaire. In addition, the researcher used participatory observation, counting, and in-depth interviews with different stakeholders of the local community and different types of tourists during the cruise seasons 2012/13 and 2013/14. Moreover, content analysis of statistics and local media publications were used. Results indicate that the souq has become “the core of a tourist bubble”, where crowding is a major problem and local residents avoid the place. The social carrying capacity of the souq has been reached. Omani vendors are leaving their businesses and renting their shops out to expatriates. Since contemporary cruise tourists are low spenders, expatriate shop sellers have become more aggressive.

  15. Root Causes and Impacts of Severe Accidents at Large Nuclear Power Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoegberg, Lars

    2013-01-01

    The root causes and impacts of three severe accidents at large civilian nuclear power plants are reviewed: the Three Mile Island accident in 1979, the Chernobyl accident in 1986, and the Fukushima Daiichi accident in 2011. Impacts include health effects, evacuation of contaminated areas as well as cost estimates and impacts on energy policies and nuclear safety work in various countries. It is concluded that essential objectives for reactor safety work must be: (1) to prevent accidents from developing into severe core damage, even if they are initiated by very unlikely natural or man-made events, and, recognizing that accidents with severe core damage may nevertheless occur; (2) to prevent large-scale and long lived ground contamination by limiting releases of radioactive nuclides such as cesium to less than about 100 TBq. To achieve these objectives the importance of maintaining high global standards of safety management and safety culture cannot be emphasized enough. All three severe accidents discussed in this paper had their root causes in system deficiencies indicative of poor safety management and poor safety culture in both the nuclear industry and government authorities

  16. Root Causes and Impacts of Severe Accidents at Large Nuclear Power Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoegberg, Lars

    2013-04-15

    The root causes and impacts of three severe accidents at large civilian nuclear power plants are reviewed: the Three Mile Island accident in 1979, the Chernobyl accident in 1986, and the Fukushima Daiichi accident in 2011. Impacts include health effects, evacuation of contaminated areas as well as cost estimates and impacts on energy policies and nuclear safety work in various countries. It is concluded that essential objectives for reactor safety work must be: (1) to prevent accidents from developing into severe core damage, even if they are initiated by very unlikely natural or man-made events, and, recognizing that accidents with severe core damage may nevertheless occur; (2) to prevent large-scale and long lived ground contamination by limiting releases of radioactive nuclides such as cesium to less than about 100 TBq. To achieve these objectives the importance of maintaining high global standards of safety management and safety culture cannot be emphasized enough. All three severe accidents discussed in this paper had their root causes in system deficiencies indicative of poor safety management and poor safety culture in both the nuclear industry and government authorities.

  17. Impact of large field angles on the requirements for deformable mirror in imaging satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jae Jun; Mueller, Mark; Martinez, Ty; Agrawal, Brij

    2018-04-01

    For certain imaging satellite missions, a large aperture with wide field-of-view is needed. In order to achieve diffraction limited performance, the mirror surface Root Mean Square (RMS) error has to be less than 0.05 waves. In the case of visible light, it has to be less than 30 nm. This requirement is difficult to meet as the large aperture will need to be segmented in order to fit inside a launch vehicle shroud. To reduce this requirement and to compensate for the residual wavefront error, Micro-Electro-Mechanical System (MEMS) deformable mirrors can be considered in the aft optics of the optical system. MEMS deformable mirrors are affordable and consume low power, but are small in size. Due to the major reduction in pupil size for the deformable mirror, the effective field angle is magnified by the diameter ratio of the primary and deformable mirror. For wide field of view imaging, the required deformable mirror correction is field angle dependant, impacting the required parameters of a deformable mirror such as size, number of actuators, and actuator stroke. In this paper, a representative telescope and deformable mirror system model is developed and the deformable mirror correction is simulated to study the impact of the large field angles in correcting a wavefront error using a deformable mirror in the aft optics.

  18. The impact of boundary layer turbulence on snow growth and precipitation: Idealized Large Eddy Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Xia; Xue, Lulin; Geerts, Bart; Kosović, Branko

    2018-05-01

    Ice particles and supercooled droplets often co-exist in planetary boundary-layer (PBL) clouds. The question examined in this numerical study is how large turbulent PBL eddies affect snow growth and surface precipitation from mixed-phase PBL clouds. In order to simplify this question, this study assumes an idealized BL with well-developed turbulence but no surface heat fluxes or radiative heat exchanges. Large Eddy Simulations with and without resolved PBL turbulence are compared. This comparison demonstrates that the impact on snow growth in mixed-phase clouds is controlled by two opposing mechanisms, a microphysical and a dynamical one. The cloud microphysical impact of large turbulent eddies is based on the difference in saturation vapor pressure over water and over ice. The net outcome of alternating turbulent up- and downdrafts is snow growth by diffusion and/or accretion (riming). On the other hand, turbulence-induced entrainment and detrainment may suppress snow growth. In the case presented herein, the net effect of these microphysical and dynamical processes is positive, but in general the net effect depends on ambient conditions, in particular the profiles of temperature, humidity, and wind.

  19. Sleeping beauties in theoretical physics 26 surprising insights

    CERN Document Server

    Padmanabhan, Thanu

    2015-01-01

    This book addresses a fascinating set of questions in theoretical physics which will both entertain and enlighten all students, teachers and researchers and other physics aficionados. These range from Newtonian mechanics to quantum field theory and cover several puzzling issues that do not appear in standard textbooks. Some topics cover conceptual conundrums, the solutions to which lead to surprising insights; some correct popular misconceptions in the textbook discussion of certain topics; others illustrate deep connections between apparently unconnected domains of theoretical physics; and a few provide remarkably simple derivations of results which are not often appreciated. The connoisseur of theoretical physics will enjoy a feast of pleasant surprises skilfully prepared by an internationally acclaimed theoretical physicist. Each topic is introduced with proper background discussion and special effort is taken to make the discussion self-contained, clear and comprehensible to anyone with an undergraduate e...

  20. The June surprises: balls, strikes, and the fog of war.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fried, Charles

    2013-04-01

    At first, few constitutional experts took seriously the argument that the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act exceeded Congress's power under the commerce clause. The highly political opinions of two federal district judges - carefully chosen by challenging plaintiffs - of no particular distinction did not shake that confidence that the act was constitutional. This disdain for the challengers' arguments was only confirmed when the act was upheld by two highly respected conservative court of appeals judges in two separate circuits. But after the hostile, even mocking questioning of the government's advocate in the Supreme Court by the five Republican-appointed justices, the expectation was that the act would indeed be struck down on that ground. So it came as no surprise when the five opined the act did indeed exceed Congress's commerce clause power. But it came as a great surprise when Chief Justice John Roberts, joined by the four Democrat-appointed justices, ruled that the act could be sustained as an exercise of Congress's taxing power - a ground urged by the government almost as an afterthought. It was further surprising, even shocking, that Justices Antonin Scalia, Anthony Kennedy, Clarence Thomas, and Samuel Alito not only wrote a joint opinion on the commerce clause virtually identical to that of their chief, but that in writing it they did not refer to or even acknowledge his opinion. Finally surprising was the fact that Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer joined the chief in holding that aspects of the act's Medicaid expansion were unconstitutional. This essay ponders and tries to unravel some of these puzzles.

  1. ORMS IN SURPRISING PLACES: CLINICAL AND MORPHOLOGICAL FEATURES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myroshnychenko MS

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Helminthes are the most common human diseases, which are characterized by involvement in the pathological process of all organs and systems. In this article, the authors discuss a few cases of typical and atypical localizations for parasitic worms such as filarial and pinworms which were recovered from surprising places in the bodies of patients in Kharkiv region. This article will allow the doctors of practical health care to pay special attention to the timely prevention and diagnostics of this pathology.

  2. Rapid impact testing for quantitative assessment of large populations of bridges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yun; Prader, John; DeVitis, John; Deal, Adrienne; Zhang, Jian; Moon, Franklin; Aktan, A. Emin

    2011-04-01

    Although the widely acknowledged shortcomings of visual inspection have fueled significant advances in the areas of non-destructive evaluation and structural health monitoring (SHM) over the last several decades, the actual practice of bridge assessment has remained largely unchanged. The authors believe the lack of adoption, especially of SHM technologies, is related to the 'single structure' scenarios that drive most research. To overcome this, the authors have developed a concept for a rapid single-input, multiple-output (SIMO) impact testing device that will be capable of capturing modal parameters and estimating flexibility/deflection basins of common highway bridges during routine inspections. The device is composed of a trailer-mounted impact source (capable of delivering a 50 kip impact) and retractable sensor arms, and will be controlled by an automated data acquisition, processing and modal parameter estimation software. The research presented in this paper covers (a) the theoretical basis for SISO, SIMO and MIMO impact testing to estimate flexibility, (b) proof of concept numerical studies using a finite element model, and (c) a pilot implementation on an operating highway bridge. Results indicate that the proposed approach can estimate modal flexibility within a few percent of static flexibility; however, the estimated modal flexibility matrix is only reliable for the substructures associated with the various SIMO tests. To overcome this shortcoming, a modal 'stitching' approach for substructure integration to estimate the full Eigen vector matrix is developed, and preliminary results of these methods are also presented.

  3. Thermomechanical response of Large Hadron Collider collimators to proton and ion beam impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marija Cauchi

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC is designed to accelerate and bring into collision high-energy protons as well as heavy ions. Accidents involving direct beam impacts on collimators can happen in both cases. The LHC collimation system is designed to handle the demanding requirements of high-intensity proton beams. Although proton beams have 100 times higher beam power than the nominal LHC lead ion beams, specific problems might arise in case of ion losses due to different particle-collimator interaction mechanisms when compared to protons. This paper investigates and compares direct ion and proton beam impacts on collimators, in particular tertiary collimators (TCTs, made of the tungsten heavy alloy INERMET® 180. Recent measurements of the mechanical behavior of this alloy under static and dynamic loading conditions at different temperatures have been done and used for realistic estimates of the collimator response to beam impact. Using these new measurements, a numerical finite element method (FEM approach is presented in this paper. Sequential fast-transient thermostructural analyses are performed in the elastic-plastic domain in order to evaluate and compare the thermomechanical response of TCTs in case of critical beam load cases involving proton and heavy ion beam impacts.

  4. Economic and fiscal impacts of large-scale development projects: implications for nuclear waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leistritz, F.L.; Murdock, S.H.; Texas A and M Univ., College Station)

    1982-01-01

    This paper deals with the local economic and fiscal implications of siting high-level nuclear waste repositories in rural areas. The economic and fiscal effects of repository development fall into two categories: (1) standard impacts similar to those that would be associated with developing any large-scale industrial facility in an isolated area; (2) special impacts that result from the hazardous nature of the nuclear materials stored and from federal ownership of the facility. Standard economic and fiscal impacts include employment effects (direct and secondary), local income changes, alterations in community price structures, effects on community services, and changes in revenues and costs for local jurisdictions. Special impacts include the possibility of diminished activity in other basic economic sectors, negative effects on the area's long-term growth prospects and a consequent dampening of investment in the local trade an service sectors, additional costs for local jurisdictions (e.g., for preparing evacuation plans), and limited local tax revenues resulting from the tax-exempt status of the facility. These special effects are difficult to quantify and require additional analysis. 47 references, 1 figure, 4 tables

  5. Spatiotemporal neural characterization of prediction error valence and surprise during reward learning in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fouragnan, Elsa; Queirazza, Filippo; Retzler, Chris; Mullinger, Karen J; Philiastides, Marios G

    2017-07-06

    Reward learning depends on accurate reward associations with potential choices. These associations can be attained with reinforcement learning mechanisms using a reward prediction error (RPE) signal (the difference between actual and expected rewards) for updating future reward expectations. Despite an extensive body of literature on the influence of RPE on learning, little has been done to investigate the potentially separate contributions of RPE valence (positive or negative) and surprise (absolute degree of deviation from expectations). Here, we coupled single-trial electroencephalography with simultaneously acquired fMRI, during a probabilistic reversal-learning task, to offer evidence of temporally overlapping but largely distinct spatial representations of RPE valence and surprise. Electrophysiological variability in RPE valence correlated with activity in regions of the human reward network promoting approach or avoidance learning. Electrophysiological variability in RPE surprise correlated primarily with activity in regions of the human attentional network controlling the speed of learning. Crucially, despite the largely separate spatial extend of these representations our EEG-informed fMRI approach uniquely revealed a linear superposition of the two RPE components in a smaller network encompassing visuo-mnemonic and reward areas. Activity in this network was further predictive of stimulus value updating indicating a comparable contribution of both signals to reward learning.

  6. The Impact of a Large Object with Jupiter in July 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Lavega, Agustin; Wesley, A.; Orton, G.; Chodas, P.; Hueso, R.; Perez-Hoyos, S.; Fletcher, L.; Yanamandra-Fisher, P.; Legarreta, J.; Gomez-Forrellad, J. M.

    2010-05-01

    The only major impact ever observed directly in the Solar System was that of a large fragmented comet with Jupiter in July (1994) (Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9; SL9). We report here the observation of a second, single, large impact on Jupiter that occurred on 19 July 2009 at a latitude of -55° with an orthogonal entry trajectory and a lower incidence angle compared to those of SL9. The size of the initial aerosol cloud debris was 4,800 km East-West and 2,500 km North-South. Comparison its properties with those produced by the SL9 fragments, coupled with dynamical calculations of possible pre-impact orbits, indicates that the impactor was most probably an icy body with a size of 0.5-1 km. We calculate that the rate of collisions of this magnitude may be five to ten times more frequent than previously thought. The search for unpredicted impacts, such as the current one, could be best performed in the near-infrared methane absorption bands at 890 nm and in the 2.12 to 2.3 μm K methane-hydrogen absorption band, where the high-altitude aerosols detach by their brightness relative to Jupiter's primary clouds. We present measurements of the debris dispersion by Jovian winds from a long-term imaging campaign with ground-based telescopes. Ackowledgements: Work was supported by the Spanish MICIIN AYA2009-10701 with FEDER and Grupos Gobierno Vasco IT-464-07, by NASA funds to JPL, Caltech, by the NASA Postdoctoral Program at JPL, and by the Glasstone Fellowship program at Oxford.

  7. Selecting habitat to survive: the impact of road density on survival in a large carnivore.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathieu Basille

    Full Text Available Habitat selection studies generally assume that animals select habitat and food resources at multiple scales to maximise their fitness. However, animals sometimes prefer habitats of apparently low quality, especially when considering the costs associated with spatially heterogeneous human disturbance. We used spatial variation in human disturbance, and its consequences on lynx survival, a direct fitness component, to test the Hierarchical Habitat Selection hypothesis from a population of Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx in southern Norway. Data from 46 lynx monitored with telemetry indicated that a high proportion of forest strongly reduced the risk of mortality from legal hunting at the home range scale, while increasing road density strongly increased such risk at the finer scale within the home range. We found hierarchical effects of the impact of human disturbance, with a higher road density at a large scale reinforcing its negative impact at a fine scale. Conversely, we demonstrated that lynx shifted their habitat selection to avoid areas with the highest road densities within their home ranges, thus supporting a compensatory mechanism at fine scale enabling lynx to mitigate the impact of large-scale disturbance. Human impact, positively associated with high road accessibility, was thus a stronger driver of lynx space use at a finer scale, with home range characteristics nevertheless constraining habitat selection. Our study demonstrates the truly hierarchical nature of habitat selection, which aims at maximising fitness by selecting against limiting factors at multiple spatial scales, and indicates that scale-specific heterogeneity of the environment is driving individual spatial behaviour, by means of trade-offs across spatial scales.

  8. Stars Form Surprisingly Close to Milky Way's Black Hole

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-10-01

    million low mass, sun-like stars in and around the ring, whereas in the disk model, the number of low mass stars could be much less. Nayakshin and his coauthor, Rashid Sunyaev of the Max Plank Institute for Physics in Garching, Germany, used Chandra observations to compare the X-ray glow from the region around Sgr A* to the X-ray emission from thousands of young stars in the Orion Nebula star cluster. They found that the Sgr A* star cluster contains only about 10,000 low mass stars, thereby ruling out the migration model. "We can now say that the stars around Sgr A* were not deposited there by some passing star cluster, rather they were born there," said Sunyaev . "There have been theories that this was possible, but this is the first real evidence. Many scientists are going to be very surprised by these results." Because the Galactic Center is shrouded in dust and gas, it has not been possible to look for the low-mass stars in optical observations. In contrast, X-ray data have allowed astronomers to penetrate the veil of gas and dust and look for these low mass stars. Scenario Dismissed by Chandra Results Scenario Dismissed by Chandra Results "In one of the most inhospitable places in our Galaxy, stars have prevailed," said Nayakshin. "It appears that star formation is much more tenacious than we previously believed." The results suggest that the "rules" of star formation change when stars form in the disk of a giant black hole. Because this environment is very different from typical star formation regions, there is a change in the proportion of stars that form. For example, there is a much higher percentage of massive stars in the disks around black holes. And, when these massive stars explode as supernovae, they will "fertilize" the region with heavy elements such as oxygen. This may explain the large amounts of such elements observed in the disks of young supermassive black holes. NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Ala., manages the Chandra program for

  9. Structural problems of public participation in large-scale projects with environmental impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bechmann, G.

    1989-01-01

    Four items are discussed showing that the problems involved through participation of the public in large-scale projects with environmental impact cannot be solved satisfactorily without suitable modification of the existing legal framework. The problematic items are: the status of the electric utilities as a quasi public enterprise; informal preliminary negotiations; the penetration of scientific argumentation into administrative decisions; the procedural concept. The paper discusses the fundamental issue of the problem-adequate design of the procedure and develops suggestions for a cooperative participation design. (orig./HSCH) [de

  10. Impact of climate change on large scale coastal currents of South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Meyer, A

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available of temperature trends in the southern indian ocean. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L14611, doi:10.1029/2007gL030380. • De Ruijter, W.P.M., van Aken, H.M., Beier, E.J., Lutjeharms, J.R.E., Matano, R.P. Schouten, M.W. 2004. eddies and dipoles around South... Madagascar: formation, pathways and large- scale impact. Deep-Sea Research I, 51, 383-400. • Lutjeharms, J. R. E. and van Ballegooyen, R. C. 1988. Anomalous upstream retroflection in the agulhas current. Science, 240, 1770-1772. • Rouault, M., Penven...

  11. Reducing the market impact of large shares of intermittent energy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Henrik; Zvingilaite, Erika

    2010-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of renewable and intermittent energy sources in the electricity system is creating new challenges for the interaction of the system. In Denmark, high renewable shares have been achieved without great difficulty, mainly due to the flexibility of the nearby Nordic hydro......-power dominated system. Further increases in the share of renewable energy sources require that additional options are considered to facilitate integration with the lowest possible cost. With large shares of intermittent energy, the impact can be observed on wholesale prices, giving both lower prices and higher...... and the attractiveness of additional interconnection capacity. This paper also analyses options for increasing the flexibility of heat generation involving large and decentralized CHP plants and heat generation based on electricity. The incentives that the market provides for shifting demand and using electricity...

  12. Potential impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on large pelagic fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frias-Torres, Sarrah; Bostater, Charles R., Jr.

    2011-11-01

    Biogeographical analyses provide insights on how the Deepwater Horizon oil spill impacted large pelagic fishes. We georeferenced historical ichthyoplankton surveys and published literature to map the spawning and larval areas of bluefin tuna, swordfish, blue marlin and whale shark sightings in the Gulf of Mexico with daily satellite-derived images detecting surface oil. The oil spill covered critical areas used by large pelagic fishes. Surface oil was detected in 100% of the northernmost whale shark sightings, in 32.8 % of the bluefin tuna spawning area and 38 % of the blue marlin larval area. No surface oil was detected in the swordfish spawning and larval area. Our study likely underestimates the extend of the oil spill due to satellite sensors detecting only the upper euphotic zone and the use of dispersants altering crude oil density, but provides a previously unknown spatio-temporal analysis.

  13. Telescopic Topics: The Impact of Student-Created Podcasts in a Large, General Education Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraal, E. R.

    2014-12-01

    Large, general education courses are important to the geoscience community. These courses serve as valuable recruiting tools for future geoscience majors because over 55% of geoscience students select their major in the first two years of college (Wilson, 2013). These courses can have many challenges such as large class sizes, limited (or no) laboratory time and facilities, little financial resource support, non-permanent faculty, and a variety of student abilities and needs. High impact practices, such as writing courses, student research, and community service can be difficult to integrate into large, non-major courses. Student-produced audio (e. g. podcasts) provide one approach to providing high impact practices within these courses. Other researchers have found student produced audio to be effective at transmitting content, integrating place based experiences, and building community connections within the students. Here I present the implementation of student-created audio within a large (100+), general education course (AST 30 - Mission to the Planets) over the last 4 years called 'Telescopic Topics.' Activities scaffold the students through the semester where they select a topic on planetary science, work with the science reference librarian, visit the writing center, and record their podcast at campus student radio station. The top podcasts are then aired on the campus radio station during the news broadcasts through a rotating series. Surveys of student experiences find that student find the activity valuable and engaging. Students reported feeling less intimidated by the science content and more connected to the subject matter. In addition, it provides many of them with their first introduction to and use of the university library and associated campus resources.

  14. Large-scale sulfolane-impacted soil remediation at a gas plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lavoie, G.; Rockwell, K. [Biogenie Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    A large-scale sulfolane-impacted soil remediation project at a gas plant in central Alberta was discussed. The plant was operational from the 1960s to present and the former operation involved the Sulfinol process which resulted in groundwater contamination. In 2005, the client wanted to address the sources area. The Sulfinol process has been used since the 1960s to remove hydrogen sulfide and other corrosive gases from natural gas streams. Sulfinol uses sulfolane and diisopropanolamine. Sulfolane is toxic, non-volatile, and water soluble. The presentation also addressed the remediation objectives and an additional site assessment that was conducted to better delineate the sulfolane and sulphur plume, as well as metals. The findings of the ESA and site specific challenges were presented. These challenges included: plant operation concerns; numerous overhead, surface, and underground structures; large volume of impacted material, limited space available on site; several types of contaminants; and time required to perform the overall work. Next, the sulfolane remediation strategy was discussed including advantages and results of the investigation. Last, the results of the project were presented. It was found that there were no recordable safety incidents and that all remedial objectives were achieved. tabs., figs.

  15. Large Impact Basins on Mercury: Global Distribution, Characteristics, and Modification History from MESSENGER Orbital Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fassett, Caleb I.; Head, James W.; Baker, David M. H.; Zuber, Maria T.; Neumann, Gregory A.; Solomon, Sean C.; Klimczak, Christian; Strom, Robert G.; Chapman, Clark R.; Prockter, Louise M.; hide

    2012-01-01

    The formation of large impact basins (diameter D greater than or equal to 300 km) was an important process in the early evolution of Mercury and influenced the planet's topography, stratigraphy, and crustal structure. We catalog and characterize this basin population on Mercury from global observations by the MESSENGER spacecraft, and we use the new data to evaluate basins suggested on the basis of the Mariner 10 flybys. Forty-two certain or probable impact basins are recognized a few additional basins that may have been degraded to the point of ambiguity are plausible on the basis of new data but are classified as uncertain. The spatial density of large basins (D greater than or equal to 500 km) on Mercury is lower than that on the Moon. Morphological characteristics of basins on Mercury suggest that on average they are more degraded than lunar basins. These observations are consistent with more efficient modification, degradation, and obliteration of the largest basins on Mercury than on the Moon. This distinction may be a result of differences in the basin formation process (producing fewer rings), greater relaxation of topography after basin formation (subduing relief), and/or higher rates of volcanism during the period of heavy bombardment on Mercury compared to the Moon (burying basin rings and interiors).

  16. Impact of a Cosmic Body into Earth's Ocean and the Generation of Large Tsunami Waves: Insight from Numerical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wünnemann, K.; Collins, G. S.; Weiss, R.

    2010-12-01

    The strike of a cosmic body into a marine environment differs in several respects from impact on land. Oceans cover approximately 70% of the Earth's surface, implying not only that oceanic impact is a very likely scenario for future impacts but also that most impacts in Earth's history must have happened in marine environments. Therefore, the study of oceanic impact is imperative in two respects: (1) to quantify the hazard posed by future oceanic impacts, including the potential threat of large impact-generated tsunami-like waves, and (2) to reconstruct Earth's impact record by accounting for the large number of potentially undiscovered crater structures in the ocean crust. Reconstruction of the impact record is of crucial importance both for assessing the frequency of collision events in the past and for better predicting the probability of future impact. We summarize the advances in the study of oceanic impact over the last decades and focus in particular on how numerical models have improved our understanding of cratering in the oceanic environment and the generation of waves by impact. We focus on insight gleaned from numerical modeling studies into the deceleration of the projectile by the water, cratering of the ocean floor, the late stage modification of the crater due to gravitational collapse, and water resurge. Furthermore, we discuss the generation and propagation of large tsunami-like waves as a result of a strike of a cosmic body in marine environments.

  17. Impacts of large dams on the complexity of suspended sediment dynamics in the Yangtze River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuankun; Rhoads, Bruce L.; Wang, Dong; Wu, Jichun; Zhang, Xiao

    2018-03-01

    The Yangtze River is one of the largest and most important rivers in the world. Over the past several decades, the natural sediment regime of the Yangtze River has been altered by the construction of dams. This paper uses multi-scale entropy analysis to ascertain the impacts of large dams on the complexity of high-frequency suspended sediment dynamics in the Yangtze River system, especially after impoundment of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD). In this study, the complexity of sediment dynamics is quantified by framing it within the context of entropy analysis of time series. Data on daily sediment loads for four stations located in the mainstem are analyzed for the past 60 years. The results indicate that dam construction has reduced the complexity of short-term (1-30 days) variation in sediment dynamics near the structures, but that complexity has actually increased farther downstream. This spatial pattern seems to reflect a filtering effect of the dams on the on the temporal pattern of sediment loads as well as decreased longitudinal connectivity of sediment transfer through the river system, resulting in downstream enhancement of the influence of local sediment inputs by tributaries on sediment dynamics. The TGD has had a substantial impact on the complexity of sediment series in the mainstem of the Yangtze River, especially after it became fully operational. This enhanced impact is attributed to the high trapping efficiency of this dam and its associated large reservoir. The sediment dynamics "signal" becomes more spatially variable after dam construction. This study demonstrates the spatial influence of dams on the high-frequency temporal complexity of sediment regimes and provides valuable information that can be used to guide environmental conservation of the Yangtze River.

  18. The impact of large scale ionospheric structure on radio occultation retrievals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Mannucci

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available We study the impact of large-scale ionospheric structure on the accuracy of radio occultation (RO retrievals. We use a climatological model of the ionosphere as well as an ionospheric data assimilation model to compare quiet and geomagnetically disturbed conditions. The presence of ionospheric electron density gradients during disturbed conditions increases the physical separation of the two GPS frequencies as the GPS signal traverses the ionosphere and atmosphere. We analyze this effect in detail using ray-tracing and a full geophysical retrieval system. During quiet conditions, our results are similar to previously published studies. The impact of a major ionospheric storm is analyzed using data from the 30 October 2003 "Halloween" superstorm period. At 40 km altitude, the refractivity bias under disturbed conditions is approximately three times larger than quiet time. These results suggest the need for ionospheric monitoring as part of an RO-based climate observation strategy. We find that even during quiet conditions, the magnitude of retrieval bias depends critically on assumed ionospheric electron density structure, which may explain variations in previously published bias estimates that use a variety of assumptions regarding large scale ionospheric structure. We quantify the impact of spacecraft orbit altitude on the magnitude of bending angle and retrieval error. Satellites in higher altitude orbits (700+ km tend to have lower residual biases due to the tendency of the residual bending to cancel between the top and bottomside ionosphere. Another factor affecting accuracy is the commonly-used assumption that refractive index is unity at the receiver. We conclude with remarks on the implications of this study for long-term climate monitoring using RO.

  19. Assessing Resiliency in a Large Lake Receiving Mine Tailings Waste: Impacts of Major Environmental Disturbance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petticrew, Ellen; Owens, Philip; Albers, Sam

    2016-04-01

    On 4th August 2014, the tailings impoundment of the Mount Polley copper and gold mine in British Columbia failed. Material from the impoundment (surface area = 2.7 km2) flowed into nearby Polley Lake and Hazeltine Creek, before discharging into Quesnel Lake, a large (ca. 100 km long, >500 m deep), relatively pristine lake. Initial estimates suggest that approximately 25 Mm3 of tailings (water and solids) and eroded soils and surficial materials from Hazeltine Creek were delivered to Quesnel Lake, raising the lake by 7.7 cm. Much of this material was deposited at the bottom of Quesnel Lake but a plume of fine-grained sediment (D50 of ca. 1 μm) remained suspended in the water column. The impact of the distribution of this sediment was monitored over the next 15 months using water column profiling for temperature, conductivity, fluorescence and turbidity with depth. The plume movement was regulated by natural processes associated with the physical limnology of this large fjord lake, specifically, seiche events which transferred suspended particles both up-lake, against the flow regime, and down-lake into the Quesnel River. Samples of lake water and bottom sediment taken from the impacted area show elevated levels of total metals and other elements, which may have important ecosystem implications in this watershed. Indeed, the breach occurred at a time when a peak run of sockeye salmon were returning to their natal streams in the Quesnel basin. Zooplankton sampling for metals was initiated in fall 2014 to determine up take of metals into the food web. This poster describes the failure of the impoundment dam and presents results of sampling the aquatic environment over the first fifteen months of impact.

  20. On the surprising rigidity of the Pauli exclusion principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greenberg, O.W.

    1989-01-01

    I review recent attempts to construct a local quantum field theory of small violations of the Pauli exclusion principle and suggest a qualitative reason for the surprising rigidity of the Pauli principle. I suggest that small violations can occur in our four-dimensional world as a consequence of the compactification of a higher-dimensional theory in which the exclusion principle is exactly valid. I briefly mention a recent experiment which places a severe limit on possible violations of the exclusion principle. (orig.)

  1. Teacher Supply and Demand: Surprises from Primary Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew J. Wayne

    2000-09-01

    Full Text Available An investigation of primary research studies on public school teacher supply and demand revealed four surprises. Projections show that enrollments are leveling off. Relatedly, annual hiring increases should be only about two or three percent over the next few years. Results from studies of teacher attrition also yield unexpected results. Excluding retirements, only about one in 20 teachers leaves each year, and the novice teachers who quit mainly cite personal and family reasons, not job dissatisfaction. Each of these findings broadens policy makers' options for teacher supply.

  2. Economic and agricultural transformation through large-scale farming : impacts of large-scale farming on local economic development, household food security and the environment in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekele, M.S.

    2016-01-01

    This study examined impacts of large-scale farming in Ethiopia on local economic development, household food security, incomes, employment, and the environment. The study adopted a mixed research approach in which both qualitative and quantitative data were generated from secondary and primary

  3. Environmental effects of large impacts on the earth; relation to extinction mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okeefe, John D.; Ahrens, Thomas J.; Koschny, Detlef

    1988-01-01

    Since Alvarez et al., discovered a worldwide approx. cm-thick layer of fine sediments laden with platinum group elements in approximately chondritic proportions exactly at the Cretaceous-Tertiary (C-T) boundary, and proposed bolide-impact as triggering mass extinctions, many have studied this hypothesis and the layer itself with its associated spherules and shocked quartz. At issue is whether the mass extinctions, and this horizon has an impact versus volcanic origin. A critical feature of the Alvarez hypothesis is the suggestion that the bolide or possibly a shower of objects delivered to the earth approx. 0.6 x 10 to the 18th power g of material which resulted in aerosol-sized ejecta such that global insolation was drastically reduced for significant periods. Such an event would lower temperatures on continents and halt photosynthesis in the upper 200 m of th eocean. The latter would strangle the marine food chain and thus produce the major marine faunal extinctions which mark the C-T boundary. Crucial issues examined include: What are the dynamics of atmospheric flow occurring upon impact of a large bolide with the earth; What is the size distributions of the very fine impact ejecta and how do these compare to the models of ejecta which are used to model the earth's radiative thermal balance. The flow field due to passage of a 10 km diameter bolide through an exponential atmosphere and the interaction of the gas flow and bolide with the solid ear was calculated. The CO2 released upon impact onto shallow marine carbonate sections was modeled and found that the mass of CO2 released exceeds the present 10 to the 18th power g CO2 budget of the earth's atmosphere by several times. Using the calculations of Kasting and Toon it was found that to compute the temperature rise of the earth's surface as a function of CO2 content, it was found that sudden and prolonged global increases are induced from impact of 20 to 50 km radius projectiles and propose that sudden

  4. Impact basins on Ganymede and Callisto and implications for the large-projectile size distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, R.; Neukum, G.; Wolf, U.; Greeley, R.; Klemaszewski, J. E.

    2003-04-01

    It has been conjectured that the projectile family which impacted the Galilean Satellites of Jupiter was depleted in large projectiles, concluded from a ''dearth'' in large craters (> 60 km) (e.g. [1]). Geologic mapping, aided by spatial filtering of new Galileo as well as older Voyager data shows, however, that large projectiles have left an imprint of palimpsests and multi-ring structures on both Ganymede and Callisto (e. g. [2]). Most of these impact structures are heavily degraded and hence difficult to recognize. In this paper, we present (1) maps showing the outlines of these basins, and (2) derive updated crater size-frequency diagrams of the two satellites. The crater diameter from a palimpsest diameter was reconstructed using a formula derived by [3]. The calculation of the crater diameter Dc from the outer boundary Do of a multi-ring structure is much less constrained and on the order of Dc = k \\cdot Do , with k ≈ 0.25-0.3 [4]. Despite the uncertainties in locating the ''true'' crater rims, the resulting shape of the distribution in the range from kilometer-sized craters to sizes of ≈ 500 km is lunar-like and strongly suggests a collisionally evolved projectile family, very likely of asteroidal origin. An alternative explanation for this shape could be that comets are collisionally evolved bodies in a similar way as are asteroids, which as of yet is still uncertain and in discussion. Also, the crater size distributions on Ganymede and Callisto are shifted towards smaller crater sizes compared to the Moon, caused by a much lower impact velocity of impactors which preferentially were in planetocentric orbits [5]. References: [1] Strom et al., JGR 86, 8659-8674, 1981. [2] J. E. Klemaszewski et al., Ann. Geophys. 16, suppl. III, 1998. [3] Iaquinta-Ridolfi &Schenk, LPSC XXVI (abstr.), 651-652, 1995. [4] Schenk &Moore, LPSC XXX, abstr. No. 1786 [CD-Rom], 1999. [5] Horedt & Neukum, JGR 89, 10,405-10,410, 1984.

  5. Estimations of expectedness and potential surprise in possibility theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prade, Henri; Yager, Ronald R.

    1992-01-01

    This note investigates how various ideas of 'expectedness' can be captured in the framework of possibility theory. Particularly, we are interested in trying to introduce estimates of the kind of lack of surprise expressed by people when saying 'I would not be surprised that...' before an event takes place, or by saying 'I knew it' after its realization. In possibility theory, a possibility distribution is supposed to model the relative levels of mutually exclusive alternatives in a set, or equivalently, the alternatives are assumed to be rank-ordered according to their level of possibility to take place. Four basic set-functions associated with a possibility distribution, including standard possibility and necessity measures, are discussed from the point of view of what they estimate when applied to potential events. Extensions of these estimates based on the notions of Q-projection or OWA operators are proposed when only significant parts of the possibility distribution are retained in the evaluation. The case of partially-known possibility distributions is also considered. Some potential applications are outlined.

  6. The impact of a large penetration of intermittent sources on the power system operation and planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ausin, Juan Carlos

    This research investigated the impact on the power system of a large penetration of intermittent renewable sources, mainly wind and photovoltaic generation. Currently, electrical utilities deal with wind and PV plants as if they were sources of negative demand, that is to say, they have no control over the power output produced. In this way, the grid absorbs all the power fluctuation as if it were coming from a common load. With the level of wind penetration growing so quickly, there is growing concern amongst the utilities and the grid operators, as they will have to deal with a much higher level of fluctuation. In the same way, the potential cost reduction of PV technologies suggests that a similar development may be expected for solar production in the mid term. The first part of the research was focused on the issues that affect utility planning and reinforcement decision making. Although DG is located mainly on the distribution network, a large penetration may alter the flows, not only on the distribution lines, but also on the transmission system and through the transmission - distribution interfaces. The optimal capacity and production costs for the UK transmission network have been calculated for several combinations of load profiles and typical wind/PV output scenarios. A full economic analysis is developed, showing the benefits and disadvantages that a large penetration of these distributed generators may have on transmission system operator reinforcement strategies. Closely related to planning factors are institutional, revelatory, and economic considerations, such as transmission pricing, which may hamper the integration of renewable energy technologies into the electric utility industry. The second part of the research related to the impact of intermittent renewable energy technologies on the second by second, minute by minute, and half-hour by half-hour operations of power systems. If a large integration of these new generators partially replaces the

  7. Potential climatic impacts and reliability of large-scale offshore wind farms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Chien; Prinn, Ronald G

    2011-01-01

    The vast availability of wind power has fueled substantial interest in this renewable energy source as a potential near-zero greenhouse gas emission technology for meeting future world energy needs while addressing the climate change issue. However, in order to provide even a fraction of the estimated future energy needs, a large-scale deployment of wind turbines (several million) is required. The consequent environmental impacts, and the inherent reliability of such a large-scale usage of intermittent wind power would have to be carefully assessed, in addition to the need to lower the high current unit wind power costs. Our previous study (Wang and Prinn 2010 Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10 2053) using a three-dimensional climate model suggested that a large deployment of wind turbines over land to meet about 10% of predicted world energy needs in 2100 could lead to a significant temperature increase in the lower atmosphere over the installed regions. A global-scale perturbation to the general circulation patterns as well as to the cloud and precipitation distribution was also predicted. In the later study reported here, we conducted a set of six additional model simulations using an improved climate model to further address the potential environmental and intermittency issues of large-scale deployment of offshore wind turbines for differing installation areas and spatial densities. In contrast to the previous land installation results, the offshore wind turbine installations are found to cause a surface cooling over the installed offshore regions. This cooling is due principally to the enhanced latent heat flux from the sea surface to lower atmosphere, driven by an increase in turbulent mixing caused by the wind turbines which was not entirely offset by the concurrent reduction of mean wind kinetic energy. We found that the perturbation of the large-scale deployment of offshore wind turbines to the global climate is relatively small compared to the case of land

  8. Human impacts on large benthic foraminifers near a densely populated area of Majuro Atoll, Marshall Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osawa, Yoko; Fujita, Kazuhiko; Umezawa, Yu; Kayanne, Hajime; Ide, Yoichi; Nagaoka, Tatsutoshi; Miyajima, Toshihiro; Yamano, Hiroya

    2010-08-01

    Human impacts on sand-producing, large benthic foraminifers were investigated on ocean reef flats at the northeast Majuro Atoll, Marshall Islands, along a human population gradient. The densities of dominant foraminifers Calcarina and Amphistegina declined with distance from densely populated islands. Macrophyte composition on ocean reef flats differed between locations near sparsely or densely populated islands. Nutrient concentrations in reef-flat seawater and groundwater were high near or on densely populated islands. delta(15)N values in macroalgal tissues indicated that macroalgae in nearshore lagoons assimilate wastewater-derived nitrogen, whereas those on nearshore ocean reef flats assimilate nitrogen from other sources. These results suggest that increases in the human population result in high nutrient loading in groundwater and possibly into nearshore waters. High nutrient inputs into ambient seawater may have both direct and indirect negative effects on sand-producing foraminifers through habitat changes and/or the collapse of algal symbiosis. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Human impacts on large benthic foraminifers near a densely populated area of Majuro Atoll, Marshall Islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osawa, Yoko; Fujita, Kazuhiko; Umezawa, Yu; Kayanne, Hajime; Ide, Yoichi; Nagaoka, Tatsutoshi; Miyajima, Toshihiro; Yamano, Hiroya

    2010-01-01

    Human impacts on sand-producing, large benthic foraminifers were investigated on ocean reef flats at the northeast Majuro Atoll, Marshall Islands, along a human population gradient. The densities of dominant foraminifers Calcarina and Amphistegina declined with distance from densely populated islands. Macrophyte composition on ocean reef flats differed between locations near sparsely or densely populated islands. Nutrient concentrations in reef-flat seawater and groundwater were high near or on densely populated islands. δ 15 N values in macroalgal tissues indicated that macroalgae in nearshore lagoons assimilate wastewater-derived nitrogen, whereas those on nearshore ocean reef flats assimilate nitrogen from other sources. These results suggest that increases in the human population result in high nutrient loading in groundwater and possibly into nearshore waters. High nutrient inputs into ambient seawater may have both direct and indirect negative effects on sand-producing foraminifers through habitat changes and/or the collapse of algal symbiosis.

  10. Impacts of spatial resolution and representation of flow connectivity on large-scale simulation of floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. M. R. Mateo

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Global-scale river models (GRMs are core tools for providing consistent estimates of global flood hazard, especially in data-scarce regions. Due to former limitations in computational power and input datasets, most GRMs have been developed to use simplified representations of flow physics and run at coarse spatial resolutions. With increasing computational power and improved datasets, the application of GRMs to finer resolutions is becoming a reality. To support development in this direction, the suitability of GRMs for application to finer resolutions needs to be assessed. This study investigates the impacts of spatial resolution and flow connectivity representation on the predictive capability of a GRM, CaMa-Flood, in simulating the 2011 extreme flood in Thailand. Analyses show that when single downstream connectivity (SDC is assumed, simulation results deteriorate with finer spatial resolution; Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients decreased by more than 50 % between simulation results at 10 km resolution and 1 km resolution. When multiple downstream connectivity (MDC is represented, simulation results slightly improve with finer spatial resolution. The SDC simulations result in excessive backflows on very flat floodplains due to the restrictive flow directions at finer resolutions. MDC channels attenuated these effects by maintaining flow connectivity and flow capacity between floodplains in varying spatial resolutions. While a regional-scale flood was chosen as a test case, these findings should be universal and may have significant impacts on large- to global-scale simulations, especially in regions where mega deltas exist.These results demonstrate that a GRM can be used for higher resolution simulations of large-scale floods, provided that MDC in rivers and floodplains is adequately represented in the model structure.

  11. Impacts of spatial resolution and representation of flow connectivity on large-scale simulation of floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateo, Cherry May R.; Yamazaki, Dai; Kim, Hyungjun; Champathong, Adisorn; Vaze, Jai; Oki, Taikan

    2017-10-01

    Global-scale river models (GRMs) are core tools for providing consistent estimates of global flood hazard, especially in data-scarce regions. Due to former limitations in computational power and input datasets, most GRMs have been developed to use simplified representations of flow physics and run at coarse spatial resolutions. With increasing computational power and improved datasets, the application of GRMs to finer resolutions is becoming a reality. To support development in this direction, the suitability of GRMs for application to finer resolutions needs to be assessed. This study investigates the impacts of spatial resolution and flow connectivity representation on the predictive capability of a GRM, CaMa-Flood, in simulating the 2011 extreme flood in Thailand. Analyses show that when single downstream connectivity (SDC) is assumed, simulation results deteriorate with finer spatial resolution; Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients decreased by more than 50 % between simulation results at 10 km resolution and 1 km resolution. When multiple downstream connectivity (MDC) is represented, simulation results slightly improve with finer spatial resolution. The SDC simulations result in excessive backflows on very flat floodplains due to the restrictive flow directions at finer resolutions. MDC channels attenuated these effects by maintaining flow connectivity and flow capacity between floodplains in varying spatial resolutions. While a regional-scale flood was chosen as a test case, these findings should be universal and may have significant impacts on large- to global-scale simulations, especially in regions where mega deltas exist.These results demonstrate that a GRM can be used for higher resolution simulations of large-scale floods, provided that MDC in rivers and floodplains is adequately represented in the model structure.

  12. New Mars free-air and Bouguer gravity: Correlation with topography, geology and large impact basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, Herbert; Bills, Bruce G.; Kiefer, Walter S.; Nerem, R. Steven; Roark, James H.; Zuber, Maria T.

    1993-01-01

    Free-air and Bouguer gravity anomalies from a 50x50 field (MGM635), derived at the Goddard Space Flight Center, with global topography, geology, and the distribution of large impact basins was compared. The free-air gravity anomalies were derived from re-analysis of Viking Orbiter and Mariner 9 tracking data and have a spatial resolution of 250-300 km. Bouguer anomalies were calculated using a 50x50 expansion of the current Mars topography and the GSFC degree 50 geoid as the equipotential reference surface. Rotational flattening was removed using a moment of inertia of 0.365 and the corrections from Table B2 of Sleep and Phillips. Crustal density and mean density were assumed to be 2.9 and 3.93 gm/cm(sup 3). The spherical harmonic topography used has zero mean elevation, and differs from the USGS maps by about 2 km. Comparisons with global geology use a simplified map with about 1/3 the number of units on the current maps. For correlation with impact basins, the recent compilation by Schultz and Frey was used.

  13. Semi-Automated Air-Coupled Impact-Echo Method for Large-Scale Parkade Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tyler Epp

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Structural Health Monitoring (SHM has moved to data-dense systems, utilizing numerous sensor types to monitor infrastructure, such as bridges and dams, more regularly. One of the issues faced in this endeavour is the scale of the inspected structures and the time it takes to carry out testing. Installing automated systems that can provide measurements in a timely manner is one way of overcoming these obstacles. This study proposes an Artificial Neural Network (ANN application that determines intact and damaged locations from a small training sample of impact-echo data, using air-coupled microphones from a reinforced concrete beam in lab conditions and data collected from a field experiment in a parking garage. The impact-echo testing in the field is carried out in a semi-autonomous manner to expedite the front end of the in situ damage detection testing. The use of an ANN removes the need for a user-defined cutoff value for the classification of intact and damaged locations when a least-square distance approach is used. It is postulated that this may contribute significantly to testing time reduction when monitoring large-scale civil Reinforced Concrete (RC structures.

  14. Attributing anthropogenic impact on regional heat wave events using CAM5 model large ensemble simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, S. H.; Chen, C. T.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme heat waves have serious impacts on society. It was argued that the anthropogenic forcing might substantially increase the risk of extreme heat wave events (e.g. over western Europe in 2003 and over Russia in 2010). However, the regional dependence of such anthropogenic impact and the sensitivity of the attributed risk to the definition of heat wave still require further studies. In our research framework, the change in the frequency and severity of a heat wave event under current conditions is calculated and compared with the probability and magnitude of the event if the effects of particular external forcing, such as due to human influence, had been absent. In our research, we use the CAM5 large ensemble simulation from the CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project (http://portal.nersc.gov/c20c/main.html, Folland et al. 2014) to detect the heat wave events occurred in both historical all forcing run and natural forcing only run. The heat wave events are identified by partial duration series method (Huth et al., 2000). We test the sensitivity of heat wave thresholds from daily maximum temperature (Tmax) in warm season (from May to September) between 1959 and 2013. We consider the anthropogenic effect on the later period (2000-2013) when the warming due to human impact is more evident. Using Taiwan and surrounding area as our preliminary research target, We found the anthropogenic effect will increase the heat wave day per year from 30 days to 75 days and make the mean starting(ending) day for heat waves events about 15-30 days earlier(later). Using the Fraction of Attribution Risk analysis to estimate the risk of frequency of heat wave day, our results show the anthropogenic forcing very likely increase the heat wave days over Taiwan by more than 50%. Further regional differences and sensitivity of the attributed risk to the definition of heat wave will be compared and discussed.

  15. Reducing the market impact of large shares of intermittent energy in Denmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik; Zvingilaite, Erika

    2010-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of renewable and intermittent energy sources in the electricity system is creating new challenges for the interaction of the system. In Denmark, high renewable shares have been achieved without great difficulty, mainly due to the flexibility of the nearby Nordic hydro-power dominated system. Further increases in the share of renewable energy sources require that additional options are considered to facilitate integration with the lowest possible cost. With large shares of intermittent energy, the impact can be observed on wholesale prices, giving both lower prices and higher volatility. A lack of wind that causes high prices is rarely seen because long periods without wind are uncommon. Therefore we focus on the low price effects and the increased value of flexible demand options. On the supply side, there is an increase in the value of other flexible generation technologies and the attractiveness of additional interconnection capacity. This paper also analyses options for increasing the flexibility of heat generation involving large and decentralized CHP plants and heat generation based on electricity. The incentives that the market provides for shifting demand and using electricity for heat production are discussed based on the variability of prices observed from 2006 to 2008.

  16. Large-scale fluctuations in the cosmic ionizing background: the impact of beamed source emission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez, Teresita; Pontzen, Andrew

    2017-12-01

    When modelling the ionization of gas in the intergalactic medium after reionization, it is standard practice to assume a uniform radiation background. This assumption is not always appropriate; models with radiative transfer show that large-scale ionization rate fluctuations can have an observable impact on statistics of the Lyman α forest. We extend such calculations to include beaming of sources, which has previously been neglected but which is expected to be important if quasars dominate the ionizing photon budget. Beaming has two effects: first, the physical number density of ionizing sources is enhanced relative to that directly observed; and secondly, the radiative transfer itself is altered. We calculate both effects in a hard-edged beaming model where each source has a random orientation, using an equilibrium Boltzmann hierarchy in terms of spherical harmonics. By studying the statistical properties of the resulting ionization rate and H I density fields at redshift z ∼ 2.3, we find that the two effects partially cancel each other; combined, they constitute a maximum 5 per cent correction to the power spectrum P_{H I}(k) at k = 0.04 h Mpc-1. On very large scales (k effects of beaming should be considered when interpreting future observational data sets.

  17. On the impact of large angle CMB polarization data on cosmological parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lattanzi, Massimiliano; Mandolesi, Nazzareno; Natoli, Paolo [Dipartimento di Fisica e Scienze della Terra, Università di Ferrara, Via Giuseppe Saragat 1, I-44122 Ferrara (Italy); Burigana, Carlo; Gruppuso, Alessandro; Trombetti, Tiziana [Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica, Istituto di Astrofisica Spaziale e Fisica Cosmica di Bologna, Via Piero Gobetti 101, I-40129 Bologna (Italy); Gerbino, Martina [The Oskar Klein Centre for Cosmoparticle Physics, Department of Physics, Stockholm University, AlbaNova, SE-106 91 Stockholm (Sweden); Polenta, Gianluca [Agenzia Spaziale Italiana Science Data Center, Via del Politecnico snc, 00133, Roma (Italy); Salvati, Laura, E-mail: lattanzi@fe.infn.it, E-mail: burigana@iasfbo.inaf.it, E-mail: martina.gerbino@fysik.su.se, E-mail: gruppuso@iasfbo.inaf.it, E-mail: nazzareno.mandolesi@unife.it, E-mail: paolo.natoli@unife.it, E-mail: gianluca.polenta@asdc.asi.it, E-mail: laura.salvati@ias.u-psud.fr, E-mail: trombetti@iasfbo.inaf.it [Dipartimento di Fisica, Università La Sapienza, Piazzale Aldo Moro 2, I-00185 Roma (Italy)

    2017-02-01

    We study the impact of the large-angle CMB polarization datasets publicly released by the WMAP and Planck satellites on the estimation of cosmological parameters of the ΛCDM model. To complement large-angle polarization, we consider the high resolution (or 'high-ℓ') CMB datasets from either WMAP or Planck as well as CMB lensing as traced by Planck 's measured four point correlation function. In the case of WMAP, we compute the large-angle polarization likelihood starting over from low resolution frequency maps and their covariance matrices, and perform our own foreground mitigation technique, which includes as a possible alternative Planck 353 GHz data to trace polarized dust. We find that the latter choice induces a downward shift in the optical depth τ, roughly of order 2σ, robust to the choice of the complementary high resolution dataset. When the Planck 353 GHz is consistently used to minimize polarized dust emission, WMAP and Planck 70 GHz large-angle polarization data are in remarkable agreement: by combining them we find τ = 0.066 {sup +0.012}{sub −0.013}, again very stable against the particular choice for high-ℓ data. We find that the amplitude of primordial fluctuations A {sub s} , notoriously degenerate with τ, is the parameter second most affected by the assumptions on polarized dust removal, but the other parameters are also affected, typically between 0.5 and 1σ. In particular, cleaning dust with Planck 's 353 GHz data imposes a 1σ downward shift in the value of the Hubble constant H {sub 0}, significantly contributing to the tension reported between CMB based and direct measurements of the present expansion rate. On the other hand, we find that the appearance of the so-called low ℓ anomaly, a well-known tension between the high- and low-resolution CMB anisotropy amplitude, is not significantly affected by the details of large-angle polarization, or by the particular high-ℓ dataset employed.

  18. Chandra Finds Surprising Black Hole Activity In Galaxy Cluster

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-09-01

    Scientists at the Carnegie Observatories in Pasadena, California, have uncovered six times the expected number of active, supermassive black holes in a single viewing of a cluster of galaxies, a finding that has profound implications for theories as to how old galaxies fuel the growth of their central black holes. The finding suggests that voracious, central black holes might be as common in old, red galaxies as they are in younger, blue galaxies, a surprise to many astronomers. The team made this discovery with NASA'S Chandra X-ray Observatory. They also used Carnegie's 6.5-meter Walter Baade Telescope at the Las Campanas Observatory in Chile for follow-up optical observations. "This changes our view of galaxy clusters as the retirement homes for old and quiet black holes," said Dr. Paul Martini, lead author on a paper describing the results that appears in the September 10 issue of The Astrophysical Journal Letters. "The question now is, how do these black holes produce bright X-ray sources, similar to what we see from much younger galaxies?" Typical of the black hole phenomenon, the cores of these active galaxies are luminous in X-ray radiation. Yet, they are obscured, and thus essentially undetectable in the radio, infrared and optical wavebands. "X rays can penetrate obscuring gas and dust as easily as they penetrate the soft tissue of the human body to look for broken bones," said co-author Dr. Dan Kelson. "So, with Chandra, we can peer through the dust and we have found that even ancient galaxies with 10-billion-year-old stars can have central black holes still actively pulling in copious amounts of interstellar gas. This activity has simply been hidden from us all this time. This means these galaxies aren't over the hill after all and our theories need to be revised." Scientists say that supermassive black holes -- having the mass of millions to billions of suns squeezed into a region about the size of our Solar System -- are the engines in the cores of

  19. Impact of large x-ray beam collimation on image quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Racine, Damien; Ba, Alexandre; Ott, Julien G.; Bochud, François O.; Verdun, Francis R.

    2016-03-01

    Large X-ray beam collimation in computed tomography (CT) opens the way to new image acquisition techniques and improves patient management for several clinical indications. The systems that offer large X-ray beam collimation enable, in particular, a whole region of interest to be investigated with an excellent temporal resolution. However, one of the potential drawbacks of this option might be a noticeable difference in image quality along the z-axis when compared with the standard helical acquisition mode using more restricted X-ray beam collimations. The aim of this project is to investigate the impact of the use of large X-ray beam collimation and new iterative reconstruction on noise properties, spatial resolution and low contrast detectability (LCD). An anthropomorphic phantom and a custom made phantom were scanned on a GE Revolution CT. The images were reconstructed respectively with ASIR-V at 0% and 50%. Noise power spectra, to evaluate the noise properties, and Target Transfer Functions, to evaluate the spatial resolution, were computed. Then, a Channelized Hotelling Observer with Gabor and Dense Difference of Gaussian channels was used to evaluate the LCD using the Percentage correct as a figure of merit. Noticeable differences of 3D noise power spectra and MTF have been recorded; however no significant difference appeared when dealing with the LCD criteria. As expected the use of iterative reconstruction, for a given CTDIvol level, allowed a significant gain in LCD in comparison to ASIR-V 0%. In addition, the outcomes of the NPS and TTF metrics led to results that would contradict the outcomes of CHO model observers if used for a NPWE model observer (Non- Prewhitening With Eye filter). The unit investigated provides major advantages for cardiac diagnosis without impairing the image quality level of standard chest or abdominal acquisitions.

  20. Potential environmental impacts associated with large-scale herbicide-tolerant GM oilseed rape crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fellous Marc

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available The Biomolecular Engineering Commission considers that the knowledge acquired in the last three years has provided significant information in reply to the points raised in its review dated 16 February 2001. The Commission has studied the potential environmental impacts associated with large-scale herbicidetolerantGMoilseed rape crops, making a distinction between direct and indirect impacts. Direct impacts stem from the intrinsic properties of herbicide-tolerant GM oilseed rape crops whereas indirect impacts result from practices associated with the farming of these crops. The Commission considers that, in the absence of the use of the herbicide in question in and outside of farmed land, there is no direct environmental risk (development of invasive crops per se associated with the presence of a herbicide-tolerance gene in oilseed rape (or related species. Nevertheless, since the interest of these tolerant crops lies in the use of the herbicide in question, indirect effects, to varying extents, have been identified and must be taken into account: the use of the herbicide in question, applied to agricultural fields containing the herbicide-tolerant crop could lead to an increase in oilseed rape volunteer populations in crop rotations; the selective pressure exerted by non-specific herbicides (to which the crops have been rendered tolerant may be very high in cases of continuous and uncontrolled use of these herbicides, and may result in the persistence of rare events such as the reproduction of fertile interspecies hybrids; the change to the range of herbicides used should be conveyed by more effective weed control and, like any change in farming practices, induce indirect effects on the agri-ecosystem, particularly in terms of changes to weeds and the associated animal life. Accordingly, the Biomolecular Engineering Commission recommends a global approach in terms of the large-scale farming of herbicide-tolerant crops that: accounts for the

  1. Aeolian comminution experiments revealing surprising sandball mineral aggregates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nørnberg, P.; Bak, E.; Finster, K.; Gunnlaugsson, H. P.; Iversen, J. J.; Jensen, S. Knak; Merrison, J. P.

    2014-06-01

    We have undertaken a set of wind erosion experiments on a simple and well defined mineral, quartz. In these experiments wind action is simulated by end over end tumbling of quartz grains in a sealed quartz flask. The tumbling induces collisions among the quartz grains and the walls of the flask. This process simulates wind action impact speed of ∼1.2 m/s. After several months of tumbling we observed the formation of a large number of spherical sand aggregates, which resemble small snowballs under optical microscopy. Upon mechanical load the aggregates are seen to be more elastic than quartz and their mechanical strength is comparable, though slightly lower than that of sintered silica aerogels. Aggregates of this kind have not been reported from field sites or from closed circulation systems. However, sparse occurrence might explain this, or in nature the concentration of the aggregate building particles is so low that they never meet and just appear as the most fine grained tail of the sediment particle size distribution.

  2. Physics Nobel prize 2004: Surprising theory wins physics Nobel

    CERN Multimedia

    2004-01-01

    From left to right: David Politzer, David Gross and Frank Wilczek. For their understanding of counter-intuitive aspects of the strong force, which governs quarks inside protons and neutrons, on 5 October three American physicists were awarded the 2004 Nobel Prize in Physics. David J. Gross (Kavli Institute of Theoretical Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara), H. David Politzer (California Institute of Technology), and Frank Wilczek (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) made a key theoretical discovery with a surprising result: the closer quarks are together, the weaker the force - opposite to what is seen with electromagnetism and gravity. Rather, the strong force is analogous to a rubber band stretching, where the force increases as the quarks get farther apart. These physicists discovered this property of quarks, known as asymptotic freedom, in 1976. It later became a key part of the theory of quantum chromodynamics (QCD) and the Standard Model, the current best theory to describe the interac...

  3. Hepatobiliary fascioliasis in non-endemic zones: a surprise diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jha, Ashish Kumar; Goenka, Mahesh Kumar; Goenka, Usha; Chakrabarti, Amrita

    2013-03-01

    Fascioliasis is a zoonotic infection caused by Fasciola hepatica. Because of population migration and international food trade, human fascioliasis is being an increasingly recognised entity in nonendemic zones. In most parts of Asia, hepatobiliary fascioliasis is sporadic. Human hepatobiliary infection by this trematode has two distinct phases: an acute hepatic phase and a chronic biliary phase. Hepatobiliary infection is mostly associated with intense peripheral eosinophilia. In addition to classically defined hepatic phase and biliary phase fascioliasis, some cases may have an overlap of these two phases. Chronic liver abscess formation is a rare presentation. We describe a surprise case of hepatobiliary fascioliasis who presented to us with liver abscess without intense peripheral eosinophilia, a rare presentation of human fascioliasis especially in non-endemic zones. Copyright © 2013 Arab Journal of Gastroenterology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Multi-impact evaluation of new medium and large hydropower plants in Portugal centre region

    OpenAIRE

    Almeida, Aníbal T. de; Moura, Pedro S.; Marques, Alféu S.; Almeida, José L. de

    2005-01-01

    Traditionally, the decision criteria when analyzing hydropower plants projects, has been based mostly on technical and economical analyses focused on the electric production aspects. Nowadays a broader approach is necessary, which takes into consideration multiple impacts such as:- Energy impacts;- Water resources impacts;- Social-economics development impacts;- Agricultural sector impacts;- Environmental impacts. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VMY-4BVNW1W-1/1/d7275b5487efa...

  5. Exploring the concept of climate surprises. A review of the literature on the concept of surprise and how it is related to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glantz, M.H.; Moore, C.M.; Streets, D.G.; Bhatti, N.; Rosa, C.H.

    1998-01-01

    This report examines the concept of climate surprise and its implications for environmental policymaking. Although most integrated assessment models of climate change deal with average values of change, it is usually the extreme events or surprises that cause the most damage to human health and property. Current models do not help the policymaker decide how to deal with climate surprises. This report examines the literature of surprise in many aspects of human society: psychology, military, health care, humor, agriculture, etc. It draws together various ways to consider the concept of surprise and examines different taxonomies of surprise that have been proposed. In many ways, surprise is revealed to be a subjective concept, triggered by such factors as prior experience, belief system, and level of education. How policymakers have reacted to specific instances of climate change or climate surprise in the past is considered, particularly with regard to the choices they made between proactive and reactive measures. Finally, the report discusses techniques used in the current generation of assessment models and makes suggestions as to how climate surprises might be included in future models. The report concludes that some kinds of surprises are simply unpredictable, but there are several types that could in some way be anticipated and assessed, and their negative effects forestalled

  6. Exploring the concept of climate surprises. A review of the literature on the concept of surprise and how it is related to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glantz, M.H.; Moore, C.M. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Streets, D.G.; Bhatti, N.; Rosa, C.H. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Decision and Information Sciences Div.; Stewart, T.R. [State Univ. of New York, Albany, NY (United States)

    1998-01-01

    This report examines the concept of climate surprise and its implications for environmental policymaking. Although most integrated assessment models of climate change deal with average values of change, it is usually the extreme events or surprises that cause the most damage to human health and property. Current models do not help the policymaker decide how to deal with climate surprises. This report examines the literature of surprise in many aspects of human society: psychology, military, health care, humor, agriculture, etc. It draws together various ways to consider the concept of surprise and examines different taxonomies of surprise that have been proposed. In many ways, surprise is revealed to be a subjective concept, triggered by such factors as prior experience, belief system, and level of education. How policymakers have reacted to specific instances of climate change or climate surprise in the past is considered, particularly with regard to the choices they made between proactive and reactive measures. Finally, the report discusses techniques used in the current generation of assessment models and makes suggestions as to how climate surprises might be included in future models. The report concludes that some kinds of surprises are simply unpredictable, but there are several types that could in some way be anticipated and assessed, and their negative effects forestalled.

  7. The impact of large-scale circulation patterns on summer crop yields in IP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capa Morocho, Mirian; Rodríguez Fonseca, Belén; Ruiz Ramos, Margarita

    2014-05-01

    Large-scale circulations patterns (ENSO, NAO) have been shown to have a significant impact on seasonal weather, and therefore on crop yield over many parts of the world(Garnett and Khandekar, 1992; Aasa et al., 2004; Rozas and Garcia-Gonzalez, 2012). In this study, we analyze the influence of large-scale circulation patterns and regional climate on the principal components of maize yield variability in Iberian Peninsula (IP) using reanalysis datasets. Additionally, we investigate the modulation of these relationships by multidecadal patterns. This study is performed analyzing long time series of maize yield, only climate dependent, computed with the crop model CERES-maize (Jones and Kiniry, 1986) included in Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v.4.5). To simulate yields, reanalysis daily data of radiation, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation were used. The reanalysis climate data were obtained from National Center for Environmental Prediction (20th Century and NCEP) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data server (ERA 40 and ERA Interim). Simulations were run at five locations: Lugo (northwestern), Lerida (NE), Madrid (central), Albacete (southeastern) and Córdoba (S IP) (Gabaldón et al., 2013). From these time series standardized anomalies were calculated. Afterwards, time series were time filtered to focus on the interannual-to-multiannual variability, splitting up in two components: low frequency (LF) and high frequency (HF) time scales. The principal components of HF yield anomalies in IP were compared with a set of documented patterns. These relationships were compared with multidecadal patterns, as Atlanctic Multidecadal Oscillations (AMO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillations (IPO). The results of this study have important implications in crop forecasting. In this way, it may have a positive impact on both public (agricultural planning) and private (decision support to farmers, insurance

  8. Assessing the Performance of Large Scale Green Roofs and Their Impact on the Urban Microclimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smalls-Mantey, L.; Foti, R.; Montalto, F. A.

    2015-12-01

    In ultra-urban environments green roofs offer a feasible solution to add green infrastructure (GI) in neighborhoods where space is limited. Green roofs offer the typical advantages of urban GI such as stormwater reduction and management while providing direct benefits to the buildings on which they are installed through thermal protection and mitigation of temperature fluctuations. At 6.8 acres, the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center (JJCC) in New York City, hosts the second largest green roof in the United States. Since its installation in August 2013, the Sustainable Water Resource (SWRE) Laboratory at Drexel University has monitored the climate on and around the green roof by means of four weather stations situated on various roof and ground locations. Using two years of fine scale climatic data collected at the JJCC, this study explores the energy balance of a large scale green roof system. Temperature, radiation, evapotranspiration and wind profiles pre- and post- installation of the JJCC green roof were analyzed and compared across monitored locations, with the goal of identifying the impact of the green roof on the building and urban micro-climate. Our findings indicate that the presence of the green roof, not only altered the climatic conditions above the JJCC, but also had a measurable impact on the climatic profile of the areas immediately surrounding it. Furthermore, as a result of the mitigation of roof temperature fluctuations and of the cooling provided during warmer months, an improvement of the building thermal efficiency was contextually observed. Such findings support the installation of GI as an effective practice in urban settings and important in the discussion of key issues including energy conservation measures, carbon emission reductions and the mitigation of urban heat islands.

  9. Potential climatic impacts and reliability of very large-scale wind farms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Wang

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Meeting future world energy needs while addressing climate change requires large-scale deployment of low or zero greenhouse gas (GHG emission technologies such as wind energy. The widespread availability of wind power has fueled substantial interest in this renewable energy source as one of the needed technologies. For very large-scale utilization of this resource, there are however potential environmental impacts, and also problems arising from its inherent intermittency, in addition to the present need to lower unit costs. To explore some of these issues, we use a three-dimensional climate model to simulate the potential climate effects associated with installation of wind-powered generators over vast areas of land or coastal ocean. Using wind turbines to meet 10% or more of global energy demand in 2100, could cause surface warming exceeding 1 °C over land installations. In contrast, surface cooling exceeding 1 °C is computed over ocean installations, but the validity of simulating the impacts of wind turbines by simply increasing the ocean surface drag needs further study. Significant warming or cooling remote from both the land and ocean installations, and alterations of the global distributions of rainfall and clouds also occur. These results are influenced by the competing effects of increases in roughness and decreases in wind speed on near-surface turbulent heat fluxes, the differing nature of land and ocean surface friction, and the dimensions of the installations parallel and perpendicular to the prevailing winds. These results are also dependent on the accuracy of the model used, and the realism of the methods applied to simulate wind turbines. Additional theory and new field observations will be required for their ultimate validation. Intermittency of wind power on daily, monthly and longer time scales as computed in these simulations and inferred from meteorological observations, poses a demand for one or more options to ensure

  10. Impacts of a large array of offshore wind farms on precipitation during hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Y.; Archer, C. L.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey brought to the Texas coast possibly the heaviest rain ever recorded in U.S. history, which then caused flooding at unprecedented levels. Previous studies have shown that large arrays of offshore wind farms can extract kinetic energy from a hurricane and thus reduce the wind and storm surge. This study will quantitatively test weather the offshore turbines may also affect precipitation patterns. The Weather Research Forecast model is employed to model Harvey and the offshore wind farms are parameterized as elevated drag and turbulence kinetic energy sources. The turbines (7.8 MW Enercon-126 with rotor diameter D=127 m) are placed along the coast of Texas and Louisiana within 100 km from the shore, where the water depth is below 200 meters. Three spacing between turbines are considered (with the number of turbines in parenthesis): 7D×7D (149,936), 9D×9D (84,339), and 11D×11D (56,226). A fourth case (9D×9D) with a smaller area and thus less turbines (33,363) is added to the simulations to emphasize the impacts of offshore turbines installed specifically to protect the city of Houston, which was flooded heavily during hurricane Harvey. The model is integrated for 24 hours from 00UTC Aug 26th, 2017 to 00UTC Aug 27th, 2017. Model results indicate that the offshore wind farms have a strong impact on the distribution of 24-hour accumulated precipitation, with an obvious decrease onshore, downstream of the wind farms, and an increase in the offshore areas, upstream of or within the wind farms. A sector covering the metro-Houston area is chosen to study the sensitivity of the four different wind farm layouts. The spatial-average 24-hour accumulated precipitation is decreased by 37%, 28%, 20% and 25% respectively for the four cases. Compared with the control case with no wind turbines, increased horizontal wind divergence and lower vertical velocity are found where the precipitation is reduced onshore, whereas increased horizontal wind convergence and

  11. Hierarchical fiber-optic-based sensing system: impact damage monitoring of large-scale CFRP structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minakuchi, Shu; Banshoya, Hidehiko; Takeda, Nobuo; Tsukamoto, Haruka

    2011-01-01

    This study proposes a novel fiber-optic-based hierarchical sensing concept for monitoring randomly induced damage in large-scale composite structures. In a hierarchical system, several kinds of specialized devices are hierarchically combined to form a sensing network. Specifically, numerous three-dimensionally structured sensor devices are distributed throughout the whole structural area and connected with an optical fiber network through transducing mechanisms. The distributed devices detect damage, and the fiber-optic network gathers the damage signals and transmits the information to a measuring instrument. This study began by discussing the basic concept of a hierarchical sensing system through comparison with existing fiber-optic-based systems, and an impact damage detection system was then proposed to validate the new concept. The sensor devices were developed based on comparative vacuum monitoring (CVM), and Brillouin-based distributed strain measurement was utilized to identify damaged areas. Verification tests were conducted step-by-step, beginning with a basic test using a single sensor unit, and, finally, the proposed monitoring system was successfully verified using a carbon fiber reinforced plastic (CFRP) fuselage demonstrator. It was clearly confirmed that the hierarchical system has better repairability, higher robustness, and a wider monitorable area compared to existing systems

  12. Public participation in the licensing of large-scale projects with environmental impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    As a rule, public participation in licensing and planning procedures for large-scale projects with environmental impact is as controversial as the projects themselves. Against this background, an interdisciplinary examination of several 'cases' of public participation in administrative procedures with varying legal forms is being conducted in a joint research project run by the Department for Applied Systems Analysis (Karlsruher Nuclear Centre) and the Research Institute for Public Administration at the College for Administrative Sciences in Speyer. The actual course of events and the practical experience of the groups involved (authorities, applicants, objectors, experts) are related to the applicable legal arrangements for public participation. The question to be answered is: which expected and unexpected functions do the procedures actually fulfill and which not. Proposals for the amendment of legal policy could be developed upon the foundation of such a diagnosis. The report contains the results of the 'pilot study' on public participation in the licensing of the nuclear power plant GKN-2 in Neckarwestheim and further contributions on the issue of 'public participation', presented within the framework of a research colloquium at the School for Nuclear Technology/Karlsruhe Nuclear Research Centre. (orig.) [de

  13. Travel Times for Screening Mammography: Impact of Geographic Expansion by a Large Academic Health System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenkrantz, Andrew B; Liang, Yu; Duszak, Richard; Recht, Michael P

    2017-09-01

    This study aims to assess the impact of off-campus facility expansion by a large academic health system on patient travel times for screening mammography. Screening mammograms performed from 2013 to 2015 and associated patient demographics were identified using the NYU Langone Medical Center Enterprise Data Warehouse. During this time, the system's number of mammography facilities increased from 6 to 19, reflecting expansion beyond Manhattan throughout the New York metropolitan region. Geocoding software was used to estimate driving times from patients' homes to imaging facilities. For 147,566 screening mammograms, the mean estimated patient travel time was 19.9 ± 15.2 minutes. With facility expansion, travel times declined significantly (P travel times between such subgroups. However, travel times to pre-expansion facilities remained stable (initial: 26.8 ± 18.9 minutes, final: 26.7 ± 18.6 minutes). Among women undergoing mammography before and after expansion, travel times were shorter for the postexpansion mammogram in only 6.3%, but this rate varied significantly (all P travel burden and reduce travel time variation among sociodemographic populations. Nonetheless, existing patients strongly tend to return to established facilities despite potentially shorter travel time locations, suggesting strong site loyalty. Variation in travel times likely relates to various factors other than facility proximity. Copyright © 2017 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. How large are the impacts of carbon-motivated border tax adjustments on China and how to mitigate them?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Aijun; Zhang, Aizhen; Cai, Hongbo; Li, Xingfeng; Peng, Shishen

    2013-01-01

    There have been growing clamours for carbon-motivated border tax adjustments (CBTAs) targeted at countries that do not accept the carbon emission reduction targets. Currently, China is the largest carbon emitter with large annual incremental carbon emissions and might have to face the challenge of CBTA. Therefore, it is a pressing policy challenge for the government to get prepared for mitigating the negative impacts of CBTAs on China. In this article, we compare the impacts of CBTAs across large developing economies and compare the performances of different policy options to mitigate the negative impacts. The main findings are as follows. First, CBTA would affect different economies and different sectors differently. CBTA would result in a shift of production across sectors and relocation of output from the target countries to CBTA users. Second, CBTA would contribute to world's emissions reduction, but less than expected due to carbon leakage. Finally, policy options, which could reduce the present distorting effects, would be preferred to other policy options that would add additional distorting effects to the economy. Looking ahead, the Chinese government should get prepared for mitigating the negative impacts of CBTAs because its economy could be adversely affected. - Highlights: • We compare impacts of carbon-motivated border tax adjustments (CBTAs) across large emerging countries. • We test effectiveness of different policy options to mitigate the negative impacts. • We investigate how to design policy mix to mitigate negative impacts of CBTAs

  15. Atom Surprise: Using Theatre in Primary Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peleg, Ran; Baram-Tsabari, Ayelet

    2011-10-01

    Early exposure to science may have a lifelong effect on children's attitudes towards science and their motivation to learn science in later life. Out-of-class environments can play a significant role in creating favourable attitudes, while contributing to conceptual learning. Educational science theatre is one form of an out-of-class environment, which has received little research attention. This study aims to describe affective and cognitive learning outcomes of watching such a play and to point to connections between theatrical elements and specific outcomes. "Atom Surprise" is a play portraying several concepts on the topic of matter. A mixed methods approach was adopted to investigate the knowledge and attitudes of children (grades 1-6) from two different school settings who watched the play. Data were gathered using questionnaires and in-depth interviews. Analysis suggested that in both schools children's knowledge on the topic of matter increased after the play with younger children gaining more conceptual knowledge than their older peers. In the public school girls showed greater gains in conceptual knowledge than boys. No significant changes in students' general attitudes towards science were found, however, students demonstrated positive changes towards science learning. Theatrical elements that seemed to be important in children's recollection of the play were the narrative, props and stage effects, and characters. In the children's memory, science was intertwined with the theatrical elements. Nonetheless, children could distinguish well between scientific facts and the fictive narrative.

  16. X-rays from comets - a surprising discovery

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2000-01-01

    Comets are kilometre-size aggregates of ice and dust, which remained from the formation of the solar system. It was not obvious to expect X-ray emission from such objects. Nevertheless, when comet Hyakutake (C/1996 B2) was observed with the ROSAT X-ray satellite during its close approach to Earth in March 1996, bright X-ray emission from this comet was discovered. This finding triggered a search in archival ROSAT data for comets, which might have accidentally crossed the field of view during observations of unrelated targets. To increase the surprise even more, X-ray emission was detected from four additional comets, which were optically 300 to 30 000 times fainter than Hyakutake. For one of them, comet Arai (C/1991 A2), X-ray emission was even found in data which were taken six weeks before the comet was optically discovered. These findings showed that comets represent a new class of celestial X-ray sources. The subsequent detection of X-ray emission from several other comets in dedicated observations confir...

  17. Self-organizing weights for Internet AS-graphs and surprisingly simple routing metrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scholz, Jan Carsten; Greiner, Martin

    2011-01-01

    The transport capacity of Internet-like communication networks and hence their efficiency may be improved by a factor of 5–10 through the use of highly optimized routing metrics, as demonstrated previously. The numerical determination of such routing metrics can be computationally demanding...... to an extent that prohibits both investigation of and application to very large networks. In an attempt to find a numerically less expensive way of constructing a metric with a comparable performance increase, we propose a local, self-organizing iteration scheme and find two surprisingly simple and efficient...... metrics. The new metrics have negligible computational cost and result in an approximately 5-fold performance increase, providing distinguished competitiveness with the computationally costly counterparts. They are applicable to very large networks and easy to implement in today's Internet routing...

  18. Impact of Large Scale Energy Efficiency Programs On Consumer Tariffs and Utility Finances in India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abhyankar, Nikit; Phadke, Amol

    2011-01-20

    Large-scale EE programs would modestly increase tariffs but reduce consumers' electricity bills significantly. However, the primary benefit of EE programs is a significant reduction in power shortages, which might make these programs politically acceptable even if tariffs increase. To increase political support, utilities could pursue programs that would result in minimal tariff increases. This can be achieved in four ways: (a) focus only on low-cost programs (such as replacing electric water heaters with gas water heaters); (b) sell power conserved through the EE program to the market at a price higher than the cost of peak power purchase; (c) focus on programs where a partial utility subsidy of incremental capital cost might work and (d) increase the number of participant consumers by offering a basket of EE programs to fit all consumer subcategories and tariff tiers. Large scale EE programs can result in consistently negative cash flows and significantly erode the utility's overall profitability. In case the utility is facing shortages, the cash flow is very sensitive to the marginal tariff of the unmet demand. This will have an important bearing on the choice of EE programs in Indian states where low-paying rural and agricultural consumers form the majority of the unmet demand. These findings clearly call for a flexible, sustainable solution to the cash-flow management issue. One option is to include a mechanism like FAC in the utility incentive mechanism. Another sustainable solution might be to have the net program cost and revenue loss built into utility's revenue requirement and thus into consumer tariffs up front. However, the latter approach requires institutionalization of EE as a resource. The utility incentive mechanisms would be able to address the utility disincentive of forgone long-run return but have a minor impact on consumer benefits. Fundamentally, providing incentives for EE programs to make them comparable to supply

  19. Quantifying Behaviour Change in reducing environmental impact within large organisations - 3 case studies from the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew F.G. Smith

    2015-10-01

    over 50% have been achieved. In total, these programmes have saved the organisations substantial amounts of money and avoided CO2 emissions. Analysis has shown that the three universities are currently benefitting by over £320,000 / year and 1,300 tonnes of avoided CO2, as behavioural-led changes have already reduced demand by between 5% and 8%. Figure 1 shows the savings made by one university, and demonstrates a 99kW reduction in electricity demand that has been created through staff behaviour change. CONCLUSIONS Effecting behaviour change within large organisations has always been difficult owing to the large numbers of people involved, the slow speed of feedback and the difficulty in quantifying results. This work shows that well-designed IT systems are a key enabler in overcoming all of these challenges. IT has permitted and facilitated the following: Community building, awareness raising, quantification of savings, feedback on actions, competitive activity and rapid reporting. The results from these programmes have helped three universities to cut their electricity consumption by between 5% and 8%, with potential for greater future cuts. Collectively, as a result of this mechanism, the three universities are reducing their environmental impact by over 1,300 tonnes of CO2 per year. The implications for other areas of behaviour change are significant. Potentially the lessons learned in these IT-enabled environmental impact reduction initiatives can be translated into other fields (eg: other health, organisational change, etc.

  20. Beyond surprise : A longitudinal study on the experience of visual-tactual incongruities in products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ludden, G.D.S.; Schifferstein, H.N.J.; Hekkert, P.

    2012-01-01

    When people encounter products with visual-tactual incongruities, they are likely to be surprised because the product feels different than expected. In this paper, we investigate (1) the relationship between surprise and the overall liking of the products, (2) the emotions associated with surprise,

  1. Surprising Incentive: An Instrument for Promoting Safety Performance of Construction Employees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fakhradin Ghasemi

    2015-09-01

    Conclusion: The results of this study proved that the surprising incentive would improve the employees' safety performance just in the short term because the surprising value of the incentives dwindle over time. For this reason and to maintain the surprising value of the incentive system, the amount and types of incentives need to be evaluated and modified annually or biannually.

  2. The Role of Surprise in Game-Based Learning for Mathematics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wouters, Pieter; van Oostendorp, Herre; ter Vrugte, Judith; Vandercruysse, Sylke; de Jong, Anthonius J.M.; Elen, Jan; De Gloria, Alessandro; Veltkamp, Remco

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we investigate the potential of surprise on learning with prevocational students in the domain of proportional reasoning. Surprise involves an emotional reaction, but it also serves a cognitive goal as it directs attention to explain why the surprising event occurred and to learn for

  3. Human amygdala response to dynamic facial expressions of positive and negative surprise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vrticka, Pascal; Lordier, Lara; Bediou, Benoît; Sander, David

    2014-02-01

    Although brain imaging evidence accumulates to suggest that the amygdala plays a key role in the processing of novel stimuli, only little is known about its role in processing expressed novelty conveyed by surprised faces, and even less about possible interactive encoding of novelty and valence. Those investigations that have already probed human amygdala involvement in the processing of surprised facial expressions either used static pictures displaying negative surprise (as contained in fear) or "neutral" surprise, and manipulated valence by contextually priming or subjectively associating static surprise with either negative or positive information. Therefore, it still remains unresolved how the human amygdala differentially processes dynamic surprised facial expressions displaying either positive or negative surprise. Here, we created new artificial dynamic 3-dimensional facial expressions conveying surprise with an intrinsic positive (wonderment) or negative (fear) connotation, but also intrinsic positive (joy) or negative (anxiety) emotions not containing any surprise, in addition to neutral facial displays either containing ("typical surprise" expression) or not containing ("neutral") surprise. Results showed heightened amygdala activity to faces containing positive (vs. negative) surprise, which may either correspond to a specific wonderment effect as such, or to the computation of a negative expected value prediction error. Findings are discussed in the light of data obtained from a closely matched nonsocial lottery task, which revealed overlapping activity within the left amygdala to unexpected positive outcomes. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  4. Marsupialization of a large dentigerous cyst in the mandible with orthodontic extrusion of three impacted teeth. A case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abu-Mostafa, Nedal; Abbasi, Arshad

    2017-09-01

    The dentigerous cyst (DC) is the most common type of developmental odontogenic cyst. It is usually asymptomatic and associated with the crown of an unerupted or impacted tooth. However, after a long duration, it is likely to cause significant bone resorption, cortical expansion, and tooth displacement. This report presents a large infected DC in the mandible of a 12-year-old female patient. The DC was located inferior to badly decayed primary molars and surrounded three impacted permanent teeth: canine, first premolar, which had a dilacerated root, and second premolar. The DC was treated successfully by marsupialization and extrusion of the impacted teeth. In conclusion, the combination of marsupialization with orthodontic extrusion is a conservative, efficient protocol that stimulates bone healing and promotes the eruption of cyst-associated teeth even if they are deeply impacted, crowded, or have a dilacerated root. Key words: Dentigerous cyst, marsupialization, impacted teeth, orthodontic extrusion, dilacerated root.

  5. M*/L gradients driven by IMF variation: large impact on dynamical stellar mass estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernardi, M.; Sheth, R. K.; Dominguez-Sanchez, H.; Fischer, J.-L.; Chae, K.-H.; Huertas-Company, M.; Shankar, F.

    2018-06-01

    Within a galaxy the stellar mass-to-light ratio ϒ* is not constant. Recent studies of spatially resolved kinematics of nearby early-type galaxies suggest that allowing for a variable initial mass function (IMF) returns significantly larger ϒ* gradients than if the IMF is held fixed. We show that ignoring such IMF-driven ϒ* gradients can have dramatic effect on dynamical (M_*^dyn), though stellar population (M_*^SP) based estimates of early-type galaxy stellar masses are also affected. This is because M_*^dyn is usually calibrated using the velocity dispersion measured in the central regions (e.g. Re/8) where stars are expected to dominate the mass (i.e. the dark matter fraction is small). On the other hand, M_*^SP is often computed from larger apertures (e.g. using a mean ϒ* estimated from colours). If ϒ* is greater in the central regions, then ignoring the gradient can overestimate M_*^dyn by as much as a factor of two for the most massive galaxies. Large ϒ*-gradients have four main consequences: First, M_*^dyn cannot be estimated independently of stellar population synthesis models. Secondly, if there is a lower limit to ϒ* and gradients are unknown, then requiring M_*^dyn=M_*^SP constrains them. Thirdly, if gradients are stronger in more massive galaxies, then accounting for this reduces the slope of the correlation between M_*^dyn/M_*^SP of a galaxy with its velocity dispersion. In particular, IMF-driven gradients bring M_*^dyn and M_*^SP into agreement, not by shifting M_*^SP upwards by invoking constant bottom-heavy IMFs, as advocated by a number of recent studies, but by revising M_*^dyn estimates in the literature downwards. Fourthly, accounting for ϒ* gradients changes the high-mass slope of the stellar mass function φ (M_*^dyn), and reduces the associated stellar mass density. These conclusions potentially impact estimates of the need for feedback and adiabatic contraction, so our results highlight the importance of measuring ϒ* gradients in

  6. Modelling the large-scale yellow fever outbreak in Luanda, Angola, and the impact of vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shi; Stone, Lewi; Gao, Daozhou; He, Daihai

    2018-01-01

    Yellow fever (YF), transmitted via bites of infected mosquitoes, is a life-threatening viral disease endemic to tropical and subtropical regions of Africa and South America. YF has largely been controlled by widespread national vaccination campaigns. Nevertheless, between December 2015 and August 2016, YF resurged in Angola, quickly spread and became the largest YF outbreak for the last 30 years. Recently, YF resurged again in Brazil (December 2016). Thus, there is an urgent need to gain better understanding of the transmission pattern of YF. The present study provides a refined mathematical model, combined with modern likelihood-based statistical inference techniques, to assess and reconstruct important epidemiological processes underlying Angola's YF outbreak. This includes the outbreak's attack rate, the reproduction number ([Formula: see text]), the role of the mosquito vector, the influence of climatic factors, and the unusual but noticeable appearance of two-waves in the YF outbreak. The model explores actual and hypothetical vaccination strategies, and the impacts of possible human reactive behaviors (e.g., response to media precautions). While there were 73 deaths reported over the study period, the model indicates that the vaccination campaign saved 5.1-fold more people from death and saved from illness 5.6-fold of the observed 941 cases. Delaying the availability of the vaccines further would have greatly worsened the epidemic in terms of increased cases and deaths. The analysis estimated a mean [Formula: see text] and an attack rate of 0.09-0.15% (proportion of population infected) over the whole period from December 2015 to August 2016. Our estimated lower and upper bounds of [Formula: see text] are in line with previous studies. Unusually, [Formula: see text] oscillated in a manner that was "delayed" with the reported deaths. High recent number of deaths were associated (followed) with periods of relatively low disease transmission and low [Formula

  7. Impact of a Large San Andreas Fault Earthquake on Tall Buildings in Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, S.; Ji, C.; Komatitsch, D.; Tromp, J.

    2004-12-01

    In 1857, an earthquake of magnitude 7.9 occurred on the San Andreas fault, starting at Parkfield and rupturing in a southeasterly direction for more than 300~km. Such a unilateral rupture produces significant directivity toward the San Fernando and Los Angeles basins. The strong shaking in the basins due to this earthquake would have had a significant long-period content (2--8~s). If such motions were to happen today, they could have a serious impact on tall buildings in Southern California. In order to study the effects of large San Andreas fault earthquakes on tall buildings in Southern California, we use the finite source of the magnitude 7.9 2001 Denali fault earthquake in Alaska and map it onto the San Andreas fault with the rupture originating at Parkfield and proceeding southward over a distance of 290~km. Using the SPECFEM3D spectral element seismic wave propagation code, we simulate a Denali-like earthquake on the San Andreas fault and compute ground motions at sites located on a grid with a 2.5--5.0~km spacing in the greater Southern California region. We subsequently analyze 3D structural models of an existing tall steel building designed in 1984 as well as one designed according to the current building code (Uniform Building Code, 1997) subjected to the computed ground motion. We use a sophisticated nonlinear building analysis program, FRAME3D, that has the ability to simulate damage in buildings due to three-component ground motion. We summarize the performance of these structural models on contour maps of carefully selected structural performance indices. This study could benefit the city in laying out emergency response strategies in the event of an earthquake on the San Andreas fault, in undertaking appropriate retrofit measures for tall buildings, and in formulating zoning regulations for new construction. In addition, the study would provide risk data associated with existing and new construction to insurance companies, real estate developers, and

  8. North Atlantic cyclones; trends, impacts and links to large-scale variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigo, R. M.; Trigo, I. F.; Ramos, A. M.; Paredes, D.; Garcia-Herrera, R.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Valente, M. A.

    2009-04-01

    Based on the cyclone detection and tracking algorithm previously developed (Trigo, 2006) we have assessed the inter-annual variability and cyclone frequency trends between 1960 and 2000 for the Euro-Atlantic sector using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 Surface Level Pressure. Additionally, trends for the u and v wind speed components are also computed at the monthly and seasonal scales, using the same dataset. All cyclone and wind speed trend maps were computed with the corresponding statistical significance field. Results reveal a significant frequency decrease (increase) in the western Mediterranean (Greenland and Scandinavia), particularly in December, February and March. Seasonal and monthly analysis of wind speed trends shows similar spatial patterns. We show that these changes in the frequency of low pressure centers and the associated wind patterns are partially responsible for trends of the significant height of waves. Throughout the extended winter months (ONDJFM), regions with positive (negative) wind magnitude trends, of up to 5 cm/s per year, often correspond to regions of positive (negative) significant wave height trends. The cyclone and wind speed trends computed for the JFM months are well matched by the corresponding trends in significant wave height, with February being the month with the highest trends (negative south of 50°N up to -3 cm/year, and positive up to 5cm/year just north of Scotland). Using precipitation data from ECMWF reanalyses and a CRU high resolution dataset we show the impact of these trends in cyclone frequencies upon the corresponding precipitation trends in the influenced areas. It is also shown that these changes are partially linked to major shifts on the indices of large-scale patterns modes, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Eastern Atlantic (EA) and the Scandinavian Patterns (SCAN). Trigo, I. F. 2006: Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm-Tracks in

  9. Simulating the impact of the large-scale circulation on the 2-m temperature and precipitation climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    The impact of the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation on the regional climate is examined using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a regional climate model. The purpose is to understand the potential need for interior grid nudging for dynamical downscal...

  10. Impact characteristics for high-pressure large-flow water-based emulsion pilot operated check valve reverse opening

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Lei; Huang, Chuanhui; Yu, Ping; Zhang, Lei

    2017-10-01

    To improve the dynamic characteristics and cavitation characteristics of large-flow pilot operated check valve, consider the pilot poppet as the research object, analyses working principle and design three different kinds of pilot poppets. The vibration characteristics and impact characteristics are analyzed. The simulation model is established through flow field simulation software. The cavitation characteristics of large-flow pilot operated check valve are studied and discussed. On this basis, high-pressure large-flow impact experimental system is used for impact experiment, and the cavitation index is discussed. Then optimal structure is obtained. Simulation results indicate that the increase of pilot poppet half cone angle can effectively reduce the cavitation area, reducing the generation of cavitation. Experimental results show that the pressure impact is not decreasing with increasing of pilot poppet half cone angle in process of unloading, but the unloading capacity, response speed and pilot poppet half cone angle are positively correlated. The impact characteristics of 60° pilot poppet, and its cavitation index is lesser, which indicates 60° pilot poppet is the optimal structure, with the theory results are basically identical.

  11. Electricity consumption in France: the 2011 big surprise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    During the last ten years, the evolution of electricity consumption in France has been slow but constant. In 2011, however, the consumption, not corrected for seasonal variations, has suddenly drop by 7% to reach the level of the year 2004, thus impacting the economic balance of the production means

  12. 'Surprise': Outbreak of Campylobacter infection associated with chicken liver pâté at a surprise birthday party, Adelaide, Australia, 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parry, Amy; Fearnley, Emily; Denehy, Emma

    2012-10-01

    In July 2012, an outbreak of Campylobacter infection was investigated by the South Australian Communicable Disease Control Branch and Food Policy and Programs Branch. The initial notification identified illness at a surprise birthday party held at a restaurant on 14 July 2012. The objective of the investigation was to identify the potential source of infection and institute appropriate intervention strategies to prevent further illness. A guest list was obtained and a retrospective cohort study undertaken. A combination of paper-based and telephone questionnaires were used to collect exposure and outcome information. An environmental investigation was conducted by Food Policy and Programs Branch at the implicated premises. All 57 guests completed the questionnaire (100% response rate), and 15 met the case definition. Analysis showed a significant association between illness and consumption of chicken liver pâté (relative risk: 16.7, 95% confidence interval: 2.4-118.6). No other food or beverage served at the party was associated with illness. Three guests submitted stool samples; all were positive for Campylobacter. The environmental investigation identified that the cooking process used in the preparation of chicken liver pâté may have been inconsistent, resulting in some portions not cooked adequately to inactivate potential Campylobacter contamination. Chicken liver products are a known source of Campylobacter infection; therefore, education of food handlers remains a high priority. To better identify outbreaks among the large number of Campylobacter notifications, routine typing of Campylobacter isolates is recommended.

  13. Environmental impact assessment - A management tool for conservation of large marine ecosystems

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nair, V.R.

    and conservation of natural resources. The problem has become crucial and the only alternative is the implementation of Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) to evolve environmental management strategies for optimum use of a given coastal area without disturbing...

  14. Carbon Dioxide: Surprising Effects on Decision Making and Neurocognitive Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, John T.

    2013-01-01

    The occupants of modern submarines and the International Space Station (ISS) have much in common as far as their air quality is concerned. Air is polluted by materials offgassing, use of utility compounds, leaks of systems chemicals, and anthropogenic sources. The primary anthropogenic compound of concern to submariners and astronauts has been carbon dioxide (CO2). NASA and the US Navy rely on the National Research Council Committee on Toxicology (NRC-COT) to help formulate exposure levels to CO2 that are thought to be safe for exposures of 3-6 months. NASA calls its limits Spacecraft Maximum Allowable Concentrations (SMACs). Years of experience aboard the ISS and a recent publication on deficits in decision making in ground-based subjects exposed briefly to 0.25% CO2 suggest that exposure levels that have been presumed acceptable to preserve health and performance need to be reevaluated. The current CO2 exposure limits for 3-6 months set by NASA and the UK Navy are 0.7%, and the limit for US submariners is 0.5%, although the NRC-COT recommended a 90-day level of 0.8% as safe a few years ago. NASA has set a 1000-day SMAC at 0.5% for exploration-class missions. Anecdotal experience with ISS operations approaching the current 180-day SMAC of 0.7% suggest that this limit is too high. Temporarily, NASA has limited exposures to 0.5% until further peer-reviewed data become available. In the meantime, a study published last year in the journal Environmental Health Perspectives (Satish U, et al. 2012) demonstrated that complexdecision- making performance is somewhat affected at 0.1% CO2 and becomes "dysfunctional" for at least half of the 9 indices of performance at concentrations approaching 0.25% CO2. The investigators used the Strategic Management Simulation (SMS) method of testing for decisionmaking ability, and the results were so surprising to the investigators that they declared that their findings need to be independently confirmed. NASA has responded to the

  15. Are seismic hazard assessment errors and earthquake surprises unavoidable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2013-04-01

    Why earthquake occurrences bring us so many surprises? The answer seems evident if we review the relationships that are commonly used to assess seismic hazard. The time-span of physically reliable Seismic History is yet a small portion of a rupture recurrence cycle at an earthquake-prone site, which makes premature any kind of reliable probabilistic statements about narrowly localized seismic hazard. Moreover, seismic evidences accumulated to-date demonstrate clearly that most of the empirical relations commonly accepted in the early history of instrumental seismology can be proved erroneous when testing statistical significance is applied. Seismic events, including mega-earthquakes, cluster displaying behaviors that are far from independent or periodic. Their distribution in space is possibly fractal, definitely, far from uniform even in a single segment of a fault zone. Such a situation contradicts generally accepted assumptions used for analytically tractable or computer simulations and complicates design of reliable methodologies for realistic earthquake hazard assessment, as well as search and definition of precursory behaviors to be used for forecast/prediction purposes. As a result, the conclusions drawn from such simulations and analyses can MISLEAD TO SCIENTIFICALLY GROUNDLESS APPLICATION, which is unwise and extremely dangerous in assessing expected societal risks and losses. For example, a systematic comparison of the GSHAP peak ground acceleration estimates with those related to actual strong earthquakes, unfortunately, discloses gross inadequacy of this "probabilistic" product, which appears UNACCEPTABLE FOR ANY KIND OF RESPONSIBLE SEISMIC RISK EVALUATION AND KNOWLEDGEABLE DISASTER PREVENTION. The self-evident shortcomings and failures of GSHAP appeals to all earthquake scientists and engineers for an urgent revision of the global seismic hazard maps from the first principles including background methodologies involved, such that there becomes: (a) a

  16. Expecting a boomtown? Exploring potential housing – related impacts of large scale resource developments in Darwin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gretchen Ennis

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Darwin is a city in the Northern Territory of Australia expecting a ‘boomtown’ scenario due to significant natural resource developments in the Greater Darwin area. The experience of ‘booming’ has a range of impacts upon communities. Housing is a key area of impact, particularly for the most vulnerable members of a population, who may not reap the benefits of the ‘boom’. In Darwin, new resource developments will begin in the context of record high house prices, high rents and high homelessness rates. This literature review explores what is known about the housing-related impacts of boomtowns and considers the likely housing-related impacts of a boomtown scenario in Darwin. While the city’s diverse economy and population size may provide some insulation from severe boomtown impacts, housing availability and affordability is likely to be negatively impacted. The implications of this for the most vulnerable members of the greater Darwin population require careful consideration.

  17. Segmentation, Diarization and Speech Transcription: Surprise Data Unraveled

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijbregts, M.A.H.

    2008-01-01

    In this thesis, research on large vocabulary continuous speech recognition for unknown audio conditions is presented. For automatic speech recognition systems based on statistical methods, it is important that the conditions of the audio used for training the statistical models match the conditions

  18. Economic Impact of Large-Scale Deployment of Offshore Marine and Hydrokinetic Technology in Oregon Coastal Counties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jimenez, T. [Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), Washington, DC (United States); Tegen, S. [Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), Washington, DC (United States); Beiter, P. [Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), Washington, DC (United States)

    2015-03-01

    To begin understanding the potential economic impacts of large-scale WEC technology, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to conduct an economic impact analysis of largescale WEC deployment for Oregon coastal counties. This report follows a previously published report by BOEM and NREL on the jobs and economic impacts of WEC technology for the entire state (Jimenez and Tegen 2015). As in Jimenez and Tegen (2015), this analysis examined two deployment scenarios in the 2026-2045 timeframe: the first scenario assumed 13,000 megawatts (MW) of WEC technology deployed during the analysis period, and the second assumed 18,000 MW of WEC technology deployed by 2045. Both scenarios require major technology and cost improvements in the WEC devices. The study is on very large-scale deployment so readers can examine and discuss the potential of a successful and very large WEC industry. The 13,000-MW is used as the basis for the county analysis as it is the smaller of the two scenarios. Sensitivity studies examined the effects of a robust in-state WEC supply chain. The region of analysis is comprised of the seven coastal counties in Oregon—Clatsop, Coos, Curry, Douglas, Lane, Lincoln, and Tillamook—so estimates of jobs and other economic impacts are specific to this coastal county area.

  19. Methods for assessing the socioeconomic impacts of large-scale resource developments: implications for nuclear repository siting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murdock, S.H.; Leistritz, F.L.

    1983-03-01

    An overview of the major methods presently available for assessing the socioeconomic impacts of large-scale resource developments and includes discussion of the implications and applications of such methods for nuclear-waste-repository siting are provided. The report: (1) summarizes conceptual approaches underlying, and methodological alternatives for, the conduct of impact assessments in each substantive area, and then enumerates advantages and disadvantages of each alternative; (2) describes factors related to the impact-assessment process, impact events, and the characteristics of rural areas that affect the magnitude and distribution of impacts and the assessment of impacts in each area; (3) provides a detailed review of those methodologies actually used in impact assessment for each area, describes advantages and problems encountered in the use of each method, and identifies the frequency of use and the general level of acceptance of each technique; and (4) summarizes the implications of each area of projection for the repository-siting process, the applicability of the methods for each area to the special and standard features of repositories, and makes general recommendations concerning specific methods and procedures that should be incorporated in assessments for siting areas

  20. Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Flörke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.; Yang, T.; Müller, C.; Leng, G.; Tang, Q.; Portmann, F. T.; Hagemann, S.; Gerten, D.; Wada, Y.; Masaki, Y.; Alemayehu, T.; Satoh, Y.; Samaniego, L.

    2017-01-04

    Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity of impact models designed for either scale to climate variability and change is comparable. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a much better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases with distinct differences in others, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability, but whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models validated against observed discharge should be used.

  1. 55-68 Impact of Area Enclosures on Density and Diversity of Large ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1Department of Land Resources Management and Environmental Protection, Mekelle University, ... The enclosures have higher density and diversity of large wild mammals ..... in it. Figure 4 Human interference in enclosures of the study area ...

  2. Mitigating Surprise Through Enhanced Operational Design: Civilian Conceptual Planning Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-01

    political, historical, cultural , and economic contexts. If we are going to fight among the people, we must understand them.1 When evaluating US military...represents both the Christian and Yoruba minorities as well as the military, continues to compete against rival elites representing disparate elements...undeniably have to learn a new culture , the physical battlespace would not be alien since MS-13 maintains a large presence in areas that are home to

  3. Precambrian large igneous provinces: an overview of geochronology, origins and impact on earth evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heaman, Larry M.

    2008-01-01

    Precambrian large igneous provinces flourished during the Proterozoic and some, such as the 1.27 Ga Mackenzie event in North America, resemble their Phanerozoic counterparts with good evidence for the production of large volumes of mafic magma in short periods of geologic time (<10 m.y.), a specific focus of this magmatism, and regional uplift prior to the onset of volcanism. In many Precambrian examples, the flood basalts have been largely removed by erosion and only the root zone (e.g. dyke swarm, layered mafic intrusion) of these large igneous provinces is preserved. The short duration of this magmatism and the geometric relationship between linear dyke swarms and basement geology can potentially provide a robust geological pin in continental reconstructions. The extensive 2.37 Ga E-W trending Bangalore dyke swarm in the Dharwar craton, India cross-cuts N-S trending Neoarchean greenstone belts and the 2.51 Ga Closepet granite and is a good example of the potential for providing a cornerstone in Paleoproterozoic continent reconstruction. In contrast, the 1.89 Ga Southern Bastar-Cuddapah large igneous province in southern India is one of several large igneous provinces formed at this time on different continents, including the 1.89-1.88 Ga circum-Superior mafic/ultramafic magmatism in North America and the 1.88-1.87 Ga Waterberg Group sills in South Africa, and is part of a global period of enhanced mantle melting. A challenge for future attempts at Precambrian continent reconstruction is to distinguish between discrete global periods of enhanced mantle melting and a single specific focus large igneous province. (author)

  4. Experimental and Numerical Analysis of Hull Girder Vibrations and Bow Impact of a Large Ship Sailing in Waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jialong Jiao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available It is of great importance to evaluate the hull structural vibrations response of large ships in extreme seas. Studies of hydroelastic response of an ultra large ship have been conducted with comparative verification between experimental and numerical methods in order to estimate the wave loads response considering hull vibration and water impact. A segmented self-propelling model with steel backbone system was elaborately designed and the experiments were performed in a tank. Time domain numerical simulations of the ship were carried out by using three-dimensional nonlinear hydroelasticity theory. The results from the computational analyses have been correlated with those from model tests.

  5. Ecological impact from large constructions of hydroelectric power plants in Parana River, Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonetto, Argentino A.

    1992-01-01

    An analysis over environmental impacts on Parana River as a result of the hydroelectric power plants construction is presented. Hydroelectric dams, also including the planned ones, are showing during the explanation, and biologic aspects are discussed. 30 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

  6. Measuring research impact: a large cancer research funding programme in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowden, Jacqueline A; Sargent, Nicole; Wesselingh, Steve; Size, Lincoln; Donovan, Claire; Miller, Caroline L

    2018-05-09

    Measuring research impact is of critical interest to philanthropic and government funding agencies interested in ensuring that the research they fund is both scientifically excellent and has meaningful impact into health and other outcomes. The Beat Cancer Project (BCP) is a AUD $34 m cancer research funding scheme that commenced in 2011. It was initiated by an Australian charity (Cancer Council SA), and supported by the South Australian Government and the state's major universities. This study applied Buxton and Hanney's Payback Framework to assess research impact generated from the BCP after 3 years of funding. Data sources were an audit of peer-reviewed publications from January 2011 to September 2014 from Web of Knowledge and a self-report survey of investigators awarded BCP research funding during its first 3 years of implementation (2011-2013). Of the 104 surveys, 92 (88%) were completed. The BCP performed well across all five categories of the Payback Framework. In terms of knowledge production, 1257 peer-reviewed publications were generated and the mean impact factor of publishing journals increased annually. There were many benefits to future research with 21 respondents (23%) reporting career advancement, and 110 higher degrees obtained or expected (including 84 PhDs). Overall, 52% of funded projects generated tools for future research. The funded research attracted substantial further income yielding a very high rate of leverage. For every AUD $1 that the cancer charity invested, the BCP gained an additional AUD $6.06. Five projects (5%) had informed policy and 5 (5%) informed product development, with an additional 31 (34%) and 35 (38%) projects, respectively, anticipating doing so. In terms of health and sector and broader economic benefits, 8 (9%) projects had influenced practice or behaviour of health staff and 32 (34%) would reportedly to do so in the future. Research impact was a priority of charity and government funders and led to a deliberate

  7. Institutional Infrastructure for Broader Impacts Engagement - Showcasing Effective Strategies and Approaches from a Large Research Institute

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gold, A. U.; Sullivan, S. B.; Smith, L. K.; Lynds, S. E.

    2014-12-01

    The need for robust scientific and especially climate literacy is increasing. Funding agencies mandate that scientists make their findings and data publically available. Ideally, this mandate is achieved by scientists and educators working together to translate research findings into common knowledge. The Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) is the largest research institute at the University of Colorado and home institute to over 500 scientists. CIRES provides an effective organizational infrastructure to support its scientists in broadening their research impact. Education specialists provide the necessary experience, connections, logistical support, and evaluation expertise to develop and conduct impactful education and outreach efforts. Outreach efforts are tailored to the project needs and the scientists' interests. They span from deep engagement efforts with a high time commitment by the scientist thus a high dosage to short presentations by the scientists that reach many people without stimulating a deep engagement and have therefore a low dosage. We use three examples of current successful programs to showcase these different engagement levels and report on their impact: i) deep transformative and time-intensive engagement through a Research Experience for Community College students program, ii) direct engagement during a teacher professional development workshop centered around a newly developed curriculum bringing authentic climate data into secondary classrooms, iii) short-time engagement through a virtual panel discussion about the state of recent climate science topics, the recordings of which were repurposed in a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC). In this presentation, we discuss the challenges and opportunities of broader impacts work. We discuss successful strategies that we developed, stress the importance of robust impact evaluation, and summarize different avenues of funding outreach efforts.

  8. Impacts of large amounts of wind power on design and operation of power systems, results of IEA collaboration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holttinen, Hannele; Meibom, Peter; Orths, Antje

    2011-01-01

    There are dozens of studies made and ongoing related to wind integration. However, the results are not easy to compare. IEA WIND R&D Task 25 on Design and Operation of Power Systems with Large Amounts of Wind Power collects and shares information on wind generation impacts on power systems......, with analyses and guidelines on methodologies. In the state-of-the-art report (October, 2007), and the final report of the 3 years period (July, 2009) the most relevant wind power grid integration studies have been analysed especially regarding methodologies and input data. Several issues that impact...... on the amount of wind power that can be integrated have been identified. Large balancing areas and aggregation benefits of wide areas help in reducing the variability and forecast errors of wind power as well as help in pooling more cost effective balancing resources. System operation and functioning...

  9. The impact of new forms of large-scale general practice provider collaborations on England's NHS: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pettigrew, Luisa M; Kumpunen, Stephanie; Mays, Nicholas; Rosen, Rebecca; Posaner, Rachel

    2018-03-01

    Over the past decade, collaboration between general practices in England to form new provider networks and large-scale organisations has been driven largely by grassroots action among GPs. However, it is now being increasingly advocated for by national policymakers. Expectations of what scaling up general practice in England will achieve are significant. To review the evidence of the impact of new forms of large-scale general practice provider collaborations in England. Systematic review. Embase, MEDLINE, Health Management Information Consortium, and Social Sciences Citation Index were searched for studies reporting the impact on clinical processes and outcomes, patient experience, workforce satisfaction, or costs of new forms of provider collaborations between general practices in England. A total of 1782 publications were screened. Five studies met the inclusion criteria and four examined the same general practice networks, limiting generalisability. Substantial financial investment was required to establish the networks and the associated interventions that were targeted at four clinical areas. Quality improvements were achieved through standardised processes, incentives at network level, information technology-enabled performance dashboards, and local network management. The fifth study of a large-scale multisite general practice organisation showed that it may be better placed to implement safety and quality processes than conventional practices. However, unintended consequences may arise, such as perceptions of disenfranchisement among staff and reductions in continuity of care. Good-quality evidence of the impacts of scaling up general practice provider organisations in England is scarce. As more general practice collaborations emerge, evaluation of their impacts will be important to understand which work, in which settings, how, and why. © British Journal of General Practice 2018.

  10. A Neural Mechanism for Surprise-related Interruptions of Visuospatial Working Memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessel, Jan R

    2018-01-01

    Surprising perceptual events recruit a fronto-basal ganglia mechanism for inhibition, which suppresses motor activity following surprise. A recent study found that this inhibitory mechanism also disrupts the maintenance of verbal working memory (WM) after surprising tones. However, it is unclear whether this same mechanism also relates to surprise-related interruptions of non-verbal WM. We tested this hypothesis using a change-detection task, in which surprising tones impaired visuospatial WM. Participants also performed a stop-signal task (SST). We used independent component analysis and single-trial scalp-electroencephalogram to test whether the same inhibitory mechanism that reflects motor inhibition in the SST relates to surprise-related visuospatial WM decrements, as was the case for verbal WM. As expected, surprising tones elicited activity of the inhibitory mechanism, and this activity correlated strongly with the trial-by-trial level of surprise. However, unlike for verbal WM, the activity of this mechanism was unrelated to visuospatial WM accuracy. Instead, inhibition-independent activity that immediately succeeded the inhibitory mechanism was increased when visuospatial WM was disrupted. This shows that surprise-related interruptions of visuospatial WM are not effected by the same inhibitory mechanism that interrupts verbal WM, and instead provides evidence for a 2-stage model of distraction. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. The Impact of Ownership Structure on Firm Performance : Evidence From a Large Emerging Market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Douma, S.W.; George, R.; Kabir, M.R.

    2002-01-01

    We examine how ownership structure affects the performance of firms using firm level data from a large emerging market, India.We specifically focus on a previously unexplored phenomenon, namely the differential role played by foreign institutional and foreign corporate shareholders.An examination of

  12. The impact of large tidal volume ventilation on the absorption of inhaled insulin in rabbits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Astrid Heide; Laursen, Torben; Ahrén, Bo

    2007-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that ventilation patterns affect absorption of inhaled compounds. Thus, the aim of this study was to investigate the effect of large tidal volume ventilation (LTVV) on the absorption of inhaled insulin in rabbits. Mechanically ventilated rabbits were given human insulin...

  13. The Impact of Financing Surpluses and Large Financing Deficits on Tests of the Pecking Order Theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, Abe; Verbeek, Marno; Verwijmeren, Patrick

    2010-01-01

    This paper extends the basic pecking order model of Shyam-Sunder and Myers by separating the effects of financing surpluses, normal deficits, and large deficits. Using a panel of US firms over the period 1971-2005, we find that the estimated pecking order coefficient is highest for surpluses (0.90),

  14. Meteorological impact assessment of possible large scale irrigation in Southwest Saudi Arabia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maat, ter H.W.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Ohba, R.; Ueda, H.; Bisselink, B.; Bauer, T.

    2006-01-01

    On continental to regional scales feedbacks between landuse and landcover change and climate have been widely documented over the past 10¿15 years. In the present study we explore the possibility that also vegetation changes over much smaller areas may affect local precipitation regimes. Large scale

  15. Large impacts around a solar-analog star in the era of terrestrial planet formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Huan Y A; Su, Kate Y L; Rieke, George H; Stevenson, David J; Plavchan, Peter; Rujopakarn, Wiphu; Lisse, Carey M; Poshyachinda, Saran; Reichart, Daniel E

    2014-08-29

    The final assembly of terrestrial planets occurs via massive collisions, which can launch copious clouds of dust that are warmed by the star and glow in the infrared. We report the real-time detection of a debris-producing impact in the terrestrial planet zone around a 35-million-year-old solar-analog star. We observed a substantial brightening of the debris disk at a wavelength of 3 to 5 micrometers, followed by a decay over a year, with quasi-periodic modulations of the disk flux. The behavior is consistent with the occurrence of a violent impact that produced vapor out of which a thick cloud of silicate spherules condensed that were then ground into dust by collisions. These results demonstrate how the time domain can become a new dimension for the study of terrestrial planet formation. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  16. Impact of large herbivores on mountain forest stands in the Beskydy Mountains

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Homolka, Miloslav; Heroldová, Marta

    2003-01-01

    Roč. 181, 1-2 (2003), s. 119-129 ISSN 0378-1127. [International conference on Forest Dynamics and Ungulate Herbivory. Davos, 03.10.2001-06.10.2001] R&D Projects: GA MŽP ZZ/620/2/97; GA AV ČR IBS6093003 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z6093917 Keywords : roe deer * red deer * Sorbus aucuparia Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 1.207, year: 2003

  17. Non-Destructive Thermography Analysis of Impact Damage on Large-Scale CFRP Automotive Parts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, Alexander; Schmidt, Roland; Oswald-Tranta, Beate; Schledjewski, Ralf

    2014-01-01

    Laminated composites are increasingly used in aeronautics and the wind energy industry, as well as in the automotive industry. In these applications, the construction and processing need to fulfill the highest requirements regarding weight and mechanical properties. Environmental issues, like fuel consumption and CO2-footprint, set new challenges in producing lightweight parts that meet the highly monitored standards for these branches. In the automotive industry, one main aspect of construction is the impact behavior of structural parts. To verify the quality of parts made from composite materials with little effort, cost and time, non-destructive test methods are increasingly used. A highly recommended non-destructive testing method is thermography analysis. In this work, a prototype for a car’s base plate was produced by using vacuum infusion. For research work, testing specimens were produced with the same multi-layer build up as the prototypes. These specimens were charged with defined loads in impact tests to simulate the effect of stone chips. Afterwards, the impacted specimens were investigated with thermography analysis. The research results in that work will help to understand the possible fields of application and the usage of thermography analysis as the first quick and economic failure detection method for automotive parts. PMID:28788464

  18. Non-Destructive Thermography Analysis of Impact Damage on Large-Scale CFRP Automotive Parts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Maier

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Laminated composites are increasingly used in aeronautics and the wind energy industry, as well as in the automotive industry. In these applications, the construction and processing need to fulfill the highest requirements regarding weight and mechanical properties. Environmental issues, like fuel consumption and CO2-footprint, set new challenges in producing lightweight parts that meet the highly monitored standards for these branches. In the automotive industry, one main aspect of construction is the impact behavior of structural parts. To verify the quality of parts made from composite materials with little effort, cost and time, non-destructive test methods are increasingly used. A highly recommended non-destructive testing method is thermography analysis. In this work, a prototype for a car’s base plate was produced by using vacuum infusion. For research work, testing specimens were produced with the same multi-layer build up as the prototypes. These specimens were charged with defined loads in impact tests to simulate the effect of stone chips. Afterwards, the impacted specimens were investigated with thermography analysis. The research results in that work will help to understand the possible fields of application and the usage of thermography analysis as the first quick and economic failure detection method for automotive parts.

  19. Non-Destructive Thermography Analysis of Impact Damage on Large-Scale CFRP Automotive Parts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, Alexander; Schmidt, Roland; Oswald-Tranta, Beate; Schledjewski, Ralf

    2014-01-14

    Laminated composites are increasingly used in aeronautics and the wind energy industry, as well as in the automotive industry. In these applications, the construction and processing need to fulfill the highest requirements regarding weight and mechanical properties. Environmental issues, like fuel consumption and CO₂-footprint, set new challenges in producing lightweight parts that meet the highly monitored standards for these branches. In the automotive industry, one main aspect of construction is the impact behavior of structural parts. To verify the quality of parts made from composite materials with little effort, cost and time, non-destructive test methods are increasingly used. A highly recommended non-destructive testing method is thermography analysis. In this work, a prototype for a car's base plate was produced by using vacuum infusion. For research work, testing specimens were produced with the same multi-layer build up as the prototypes. These specimens were charged with defined loads in impact tests to simulate the effect of stone chips. Afterwards, the impacted specimens were investigated with thermography analysis. The research results in that work will help to understand the possible fields of application and the usage of thermography analysis as the first quick and economic failure detection method for automotive parts.

  20. Latin America: how a region surprised the experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Sherbinin, A

    1993-02-01

    In 1960-1970, family planning specialists and demographers worried that poverty, limited education, Latin machismo, and strong catholic ideals would obstruct family planning efforts to reduce high fertility in Latin America. It had the highest annual population growth rate in the world (2.8%), which would increase the population 2-fold in 25 years. Yet, the UN's 1992 population projection for Latin America and the Caribbean in the year 2000 was about 20% lower than its 1963 projection (just over 500 vs. 638 million). Since life expectancy increased simultaneously from 57 to 68 years, this reduced projection was caused directly by a large decline in fertility from 5.9 to 3. A regression analysis of 11 Latin American and Caribbean countries revealed that differences in the contraceptive prevalence rates accounted for 90% of the variation in the total fertility rate between countries. Thus, contraception played a key role in the fertility decline. The second most significant determinant of fertility decline was an increase in the average age at first marriage from about 20 to 23 years. Induced abortion and breast feeding did not contribute significantly to fertility decline. The major socioeconomic factors responsible for the decline included economic development and urbanization, resulting in improvements in health care, reduced infant and child mortality, and increases in female literacy, education, and labor force participation. Public and private family planning programs also contributed significantly to the decline. They expanded from cities to remote rural areas, thereby increasing access to contraception. By the early 1990s, Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia had among the lowest levels of unmet need (13-24%) in developing countries. Other key factors of fertility decline were political commitment, strong communication efforts, and stress on quality services. Latin America provides hope to other regions where religion and culture promote a large family size.

  1. Automated Atmospheric Composition Dataset Level Metadata Discovery. Difficulties and Surprises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strub, R. F.; Falke, S. R.; Kempler, S.; Fialkowski, E.; Goussev, O.; Lynnes, C.

    2015-12-01

    The Atmospheric Composition Portal (ACP) is an aggregator and curator of information related to remotely sensed atmospheric composition data and analysis. It uses existing tools and technologies and, where needed, enhances those capabilities to provide interoperable access, tools, and contextual guidance for scientists and value-adding organizations using remotely sensed atmospheric composition data. The initial focus is on Essential Climate Variables identified by the Global Climate Observing System - CH4, CO, CO2, NO2, O3, SO2 and aerosols. This poster addresses our efforts in building the ACP Data Table, an interface to help discover and understand remotely sensed data that are related to atmospheric composition science and applications. We harvested GCMD, CWIC, GEOSS metadata catalogs using machine to machine technologies - OpenSearch, Web Services. We also manually investigated the plethora of CEOS data providers portals and other catalogs where that data might be aggregated. This poster is our experience of the excellence, variety, and challenges we encountered.Conclusions:1.The significant benefits that the major catalogs provide are their machine to machine tools like OpenSearch and Web Services rather than any GUI usability improvements due to the large amount of data in their catalog.2.There is a trend at the large catalogs towards simulating small data provider portals through advanced services. 3.Populating metadata catalogs using ISO19115 is too complex for users to do in a consistent way, difficult to parse visually or with XML libraries, and too complex for Java XML binders like CASTOR.4.The ability to search for Ids first and then for data (GCMD and ECHO) is better for machine to machine operations rather than the timeouts experienced when returning the entire metadata entry at once. 5.Metadata harvest and export activities between the major catalogs has led to a significant amount of duplication. (This is currently being addressed) 6.Most (if not

  2. Variations in pollinator density and impacts on large cardamom (Amomum subulatum Roxb. crop yield in Sikkim Himalaya, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kailash S. Gaira

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Large cardamom (Amomum subulatum Roxb., a perennial cash crop, cultivated under an agroforestry system in the eastern Himalaya of India, is well recognized as a pollination-dependent crop. Observations on pollinator abundance in Mamlay watershed of Sikkim Himalaya were collected during the blooming season to evaluate the pollinator abundance across sites and time frames, and impact of pollinator abundance on crop yield from 2010 to 2012. The results revealed that the bumblebees and honeybees are most frequent visitors of large cardamom flowers. The abundance of honeybees, however, varied between sites for the years 2010–2012, while that of bumblebees varied for the years 2011 and 2012. The abundance of honeybees resulted in a variation within time frames for 2010 and 2011, while that of bumblebees varied for 2010 and 2012 (p<0.01. The density of pollinators correlated positively with the number of flowers of the target crop. The impact of pollinator abundance revealed that the increasing bumblebee visitation resulted in a higher yield of the crop (i.e. 17–41 g/plant and the increasing abundance of all bees (21–41 g/plant was significant (p<0.03. Therefore, the study concluded that the large cardamom yield is sensitive to pollinator abundance and there is a need for adopting the best pollinator conservation and management practices toward sustaining the yield of large cardamom.

  3. Surprisingly rational: probability theory plus noise explains biases in judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

    2014-07-01

    The systematic biases seen in people's probability judgments are typically taken as evidence that people do not use the rules of probability theory when reasoning about probability but instead use heuristics, which sometimes yield reasonable judgments and sometimes yield systematic biases. This view has had a major impact in economics, law, medicine, and other fields; indeed, the idea that people cannot reason with probabilities has become a truism. We present a simple alternative to this view, where people reason about probability according to probability theory but are subject to random variation or noise in the reasoning process. In this account the effect of noise is canceled for some probabilistic expressions. Analyzing data from 2 experiments, we find that, for these expressions, people's probability judgments are strikingly close to those required by probability theory. For other expressions, this account produces systematic deviations in probability estimates. These deviations explain 4 reliable biases in human probabilistic reasoning (conservatism, subadditivity, conjunction, and disjunction fallacies). These results suggest that people's probability judgments embody the rules of probability theory and that biases in those judgments are due to the effects of random noise. (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  4. Impact of Alternative Inputs and Grooming Methods on Large-R Jet Reconstruction in ATLAS

    CERN Document Server

    The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    During Run 1 of the LHC, the optimal reconstruction algorithm for large-$R$ jets in ATLAS, characterized in terms of the ability to discriminate signal from background and robust reconstruction in the presence of pileup, was found to be anti-$k_{t}$ jets with a radius parameter of 1.0, formed from locally calibrated topological calorimeter cell clusters and groomed with the trimming algorithm to remove contributions from pileup and underlying event. Since that time, much theoretical, phenomenological, and experimental work has been performed to improve both the reconstruction of the jet inputs as well as the grooming techniques applied to reconstructed jets. In this work, an inclusive survey of both pileup mitigation algorithms applied to calorimeter cell clusters and grooming algorithms is done to study their pileup stability and ability to identify hadronically decaying W bosons within the ATLAS experiment. It is found that compared to the conventional reconstruction algorithm of large-$R$ trimmed jets form...

  5. Giants among larges: how gigantism impacts giant virus entry into amoebae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Rodrigo Araújo Lima; Abrahão, Jônatas Santos; Drumond, Betânia Paiva; Kroon, Erna Geessien

    2016-06-01

    The proposed order Megavirales comprises the nucleocytoplasmic large DNA viruses (NCLDV), infecting a wide range of hosts. Over time, they co-evolved with different host cells, developing various strategies to penetrate them. Mimiviruses and other giant viruses enter cells through phagocytosis, while Marseillevirus and other large viruses explore endocytosis and macropinocytosis. These differing strategies might reflect the evolution of those viruses. Various scenarios have been proposed for the origin and evolution of these viruses, presenting one of the most enigmatic issues to surround these microorganisms. In this context, we believe that giant viruses evolved independently by massive gene/size gain, exploring the phagocytic pathway of entry into amoebas. In response to gigantism, hosts developed mechanisms to evade these parasites. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Impact of biology knowledge on the conservation and management of large pelagic sharks

    OpenAIRE

    Yokoi, Hiroki; Ijima, Hirotaka; Ohshimo, Seiji; Yokawa, Kotaro

    2017-01-01

    Population growth rate, which depends on several biological parameters, is valuable information for the conservation and management of pelagic sharks, such as blue and shortfin mako sharks. However, reported biological parameters for estimating the population growth rates of these sharks differ by sex and display large variability. To estimate the appropriate population growth rate and clarify relationships between growth rate and relevant biological parameters, we developed a two-sex age-str...

  7. Orbital melanocytoma: When a tumor becomes a relieving surprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haytham E. Nasr

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Melanocytomas are rare pigmented tumors that arise form melanocytes and have been reported in the central nervous system. Orbital melanocytomas “also known as blue nevus” are rarely reported. The occurrence of choroidal melanoma and orbital melanocytomas has never been described. Observations: This is a case of orbital melanocytoma in a 34 year old female who presented with left proptosis and ecchymosis. She has the right eye enucleated to treat a large choroidal melanoma, 6 years earlier. Orbital metastasis was suspected. After orbital imaging and systemic evaluation, incisional biopsy was planned yet the mass could be totally excised and it turned out to be melanocytoma. The condition was not associated with nevus of Ota and the patient is not known to have any predisposing condition for melanocytic lesions. Conclusion and importance: Melanocytoma and malignant melanoma share the same cell of origin. The benign course, the well differentiated cells, absence of anaplasia and the positive reaction to Human Melanoma Black-45 (HMB-45 and S-100 proteins established the diagnosis of the former. Such diagnosis was a relief for this one eyed patient.(HMB-45:human melanoma black-45. Keywords: Orbit, Melanocytoma, Choroidal melanoma, HMB-45, S-100

  8. Ampullary Mixed Adenoneuroendocrine Carcinoma: Surprise Histology, Familiar Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahansaria, Shyam Sunder; Agrawal, Nikhil; Arora, Asit; Bihari, Chhagan; Appukuttan, Murali; Chattopadhyay, Tushar Kanti

    2017-10-01

    Mixed adenoneuroendocrine carcinoma (MANEC) has recently been defined by the World Health Organization in 2010. These are rare tumors and MANECs of ampullary region are even rarer. Only 19 cases have been reported in literature. We present 3 cases; the largest series, second case of amphicrine tumor and first case associated with chronic pancreatitis. Retrospective review of 3 patients who were diagnosed to have ampullary MANEC. All 3 patients were diagnosed preoperatively as neuroendocrine carcinoma and underwent margin negative pancreaticoduodenectomy. The histopathology revealed MANECs of small cell, mixed type in 2 patients and large cell, amphicrine type in 1 patient. The neuroendocrine component was grade 3 in all, the tumor was T3 in 2 and T2 in 1 and all had nodal metastases. Two patients received adjuvant chemotherapy and 2 of them had recurrence at 13 and 16 months. The median survival was 15 months. Ampullary MANECs are rare tumors. They are diagnosed on histopathologic examination of the resected specimen. Clinical presentation, management, and prognosis is similar to ampullary adenocarcinoma in literature.

  9. Impact of Healthy Vending Machine Options in a Large Community Health Organization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grivois-Shah, Ravi; Gonzalez, Juan R; Khandekar, Shashank P; Howerter, Amy L; O'Connor, Patrick A; Edwards, Barbara A

    2017-01-01

    To determine whether increasing the proportion of healthier options in vending machines decreases the amount of calories, fat, sugar, and sodium vended, while maintaining total sales revenue. This study evaluated the impact of altering nutritious options to vending machines throughout the Banner Health organization by comparing vended items' sales and nutrition information over 6 months compared to the same 6 months of the previous year. Twenty-three locations including corporate and patient-care centers. Changing vending machine composition toward more nutritious options. Comparisons of monthly aggregates of sales, units vended, calories, fat, sodium, and sugar vended by site. A pre-post analysis using paired t tests comparing 6 months before implementation to the equivalent 6 months postimplementation. Significant average monthly decreases were seen for calories (16.7%, P = .002), fat (27.4%, P ≤ .0001), sodium (25.9%, P ≤ .0001), and sugar (11.8%, P = .045) vended from 2014 to 2015. Changes in revenue and units vended did not change from 2014 to 2015 ( P = .58 and P = .45, respectively). Increasing the proportion of healthier options in vending machines from 20% to 80% significantly lowered the amount of calories, sodium, fat, and sugar vended, while not reducing units vended or having a negative financial impact.

  10. Environmental impacts of a large-scale incinerator with mixed MSW of high water content from a LCA perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, Ziyang; Bilitewski, Bernd; Zhu, Nanwen; Chai, Xiaoli; Li, Bing; Zhao, Youcai

    2015-04-01

    Large-scale incinerators are applied widely as a result of the heavy burden of municipal solid waste (MSW) generated, while strong opposition is arising from the public living nearby. A large-scale working incineration plant of 1500 ton/day was chosen for evaluation using life cycle assessment. It was found that the corresponding human toxicity impacts via soil (HTs), human toxicity impacts via water (HTw) and human toxicity impacts via air (HTa) categories are 0.213, 2.171, and 0.012 personal equivalents (PE), and global warming (GW100) and nutrient enrichment (NE) impacts are 0.002 and 0.001 PE per ton of waste burned for this plant. Heavy metals in flue gas, such as Hg and Pb, are the two dominant contributors to the toxicity impact categories, and energy recovery could reduce the GW100 and NE greatly. The corresponding HTs, HTw and HTa decrease to 0.087, 0.911 and 0.008 PE, and GW100 turns into savings of -0.007 PE due to the increase of the heating value from 3935 to 5811 kJ/kg, if a trommel screener of 40 mm mesh size is used to pre-separate MSW. MSW sorting and the reduction of water content by physical pressure might be two promising pre-treatment methods to improve the combustion performance, and the application of stricter standards for leachate discharge and the flue gas purification process are two critical factors for improvement of the environmental profile identified in this work. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  11. Surprising structures hiding in Penrose’s future null infinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Ezra T.

    2017-07-01

    Since the late1950s, almost all discussions of asymptotically flat (Einstein-Maxwell) space-times have taken place in the context of Penrose’s null infinity, I+. In addition, almost all calculations have used the Bondi coordinate and tetrad systems. Beginning with a known asymptotically flat solution to the Einstein-Maxwell equations, we show first, that there are other natural coordinate systems, near I+, (analogous to light-cones in flat-space) that are based on (asymptotically) shear-free null geodesic congruences (analogous to the flat-space case). Using these new coordinates and their associated tetrad, we define the complex dipole moment, (the mass dipole plus i times angular momentum), from the l  =  1 harmonic coefficient of a component of the asymptotic Weyl tensor. Second, from this definition, from the Bianchi identities and from the Bondi-Sachs mass and linear momentum, we show that there exists a large number of results—identifications and dynamics—identical to those of classical mechanics and electrodynamics. They include, among many others, {P}=M{v}+..., {L}= {r} × {P} , spin, Newton’s second law with the rocket force term (\\dotM v) and radiation reaction, angular momentum conservation and others. All these relations take place in the rather mysterious H-space rather than in space-time. This leads to the enigma: ‘why do these well known relations of classical mechanics take place in H-space?’ and ‘What is the physical meaning of H-space?’

  12. Quantifying the Impacts of Large Scale Integration of Renewables in Indian Power Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, P.; Mishra, T.; Banerjee, R.

    2017-12-01

    India's power sector is responsible for nearly 37 percent of India's greenhouse gas emissions. For a fast emerging economy like India whose population and energy consumption are poised to rise rapidly in the coming decades, renewable energy can play a vital role in decarbonizing power sector. In this context, India has targeted 33-35 percent emission intensity reduction (with respect to 2005 levels) along with large scale renewable energy targets (100GW solar, 60GW wind, and 10GW biomass energy by 2022) in INDCs submitted at Paris agreement. But large scale integration of renewable energy is a complex process which faces a number of problems like capital intensiveness, matching intermittent loads with least storage capacity and reliability. In this context, this study attempts to assess the technical feasibility of integrating renewables into Indian electricity mix by 2022 and analyze its implications on power sector operations. This study uses TIMES, a bottom up energy optimization model with unit commitment and dispatch features. We model coal and gas fired units discretely with region-wise representation of wind and solar resources. The dispatch features are used for operational analysis of power plant units under ramp rate and minimum generation constraints. The study analyzes India's electricity sector transition for the year 2022 with three scenarios. The base case scenario (no RE addition) along with INDC scenario (with 100GW solar, 60GW wind, 10GW biomass) and low RE scenario (50GW solar, 30GW wind) have been created to analyze the implications of large scale integration of variable renewable energy. The results provide us insights on trade-offs involved in achieving mitigation targets and investment decisions involved. The study also examines operational reliability and flexibility requirements of the system for integrating renewables.

  13. Historical detection of atmospheric impacts by large bolides using acoustic-gravity waves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    ReVelle, D.O.

    1995-05-01

    During the period from about 1960 to the early 1980`s a number of large bolides (meteor-fireballs) entered the atmosphere which were sufficiently large to generate blast waves during their drag interaction with the air. For example, the remnant of the blast wave from a single kiloton class event was subsequently detected by up to six ground arrays of microbarographs which were operated by the U.S. Air Force during this pre-satellite period. Data have also been obtained from other sources during this period as well and are also discussed in this summary of the historical data. The Air Force data have been analyzed in terms of their observable properties in order to infer the influx rate of NEO`s (near-Earth objects) in the energy range from 0.2 to 1100 kt. The determined influx is in reasonable agreement with that determined by other methods currently available such as Rabinowitz (1992), Ceplecha, (1992; 1994b) and by Chapman and Morrison (1994) despite the fact that due to sampling deficiencies only a portion of the {open_quotes}true{close_quotes} flux of large bodies has been obtained by this method, i.e., only sources at relatively low elevations have been detected. Thus the weak, fragile cometary bodies which do not penetrate the atmosphere as deeply are less likely to have been sampled by this type of detection system. Future work using the proposed C.T.B.T. (Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty) global scale infrasonic network will be likely to improve upon this early estimate of the global influx of NEO`s considerably.

  14. Impacts of large-scale climatic disturbances on the terrestrial carbon cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucht Wolfgang

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere steadily increases as a consequence of anthropogenic emissions but with large interannual variability caused by the terrestrial biosphere. These variations in the CO2 growth rate are caused by large-scale climate anomalies but the relative contributions of vegetation growth and soil decomposition is uncertain. We use a biogeochemical model of the terrestrial biosphere to differentiate the effects of temperature and precipitation on net primary production (NPP and heterotrophic respiration (Rh during the two largest anomalies in atmospheric CO2 increase during the last 25 years. One of these, the smallest atmospheric year-to-year increase (largest land carbon uptake in that period, was caused by global cooling in 1992/93 after the Pinatubo volcanic eruption. The other, the largest atmospheric increase on record (largest land carbon release, was caused by the strong El Niño event of 1997/98. Results We find that the LPJ model correctly simulates the magnitude of terrestrial modulation of atmospheric carbon anomalies for these two extreme disturbances. The response of soil respiration to changes in temperature and precipitation explains most of the modelled anomalous CO2 flux. Conclusion Observed and modelled NEE anomalies are in good agreement, therefore we suggest that the temporal variability of heterotrophic respiration produced by our model is reasonably realistic. We therefore conclude that during the last 25 years the two largest disturbances of the global carbon cycle were strongly controlled by soil processes rather then the response of vegetation to these large-scale climatic events.

  15. DYNAMIC TENSILE TESTING WITH A LARGE SCALE 33 MJ ROTATING DISK IMPACT MACHINE

    OpenAIRE

    Kussmaul , K.; Zimmermann , C.; Issler , W.

    1985-01-01

    A recently completed testing machine for dynamic tensile tests is described. The machine consists essentially of a pendulum which holds the specimen and a large steel disk with a double striking nose fixed to its circumference. Disk diameter measures 2000 mm, while its mass is 6400 kg. The specimens to be tested are tensile specimens with a diameter of up to 20 mm and 300 mm length or CT 15 specimens at various temperatures. Loading velocity ranges from 1 to 150 m/s. The process of specimen-n...

  16. Malaria and large dams in sub-Saharan Africa: future impacts in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibret, Solomon; Lautze, Jonathan; McCartney, Matthew; Nhamo, Luxon; Wilson, G Glenn

    2016-09-05

    Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has embarked on a new era of dam building to improve food security and promote economic development. Nonetheless, the future impacts of dams on malaria transmission are poorly understood and seldom investigated in the context of climate and demographic change. The distribution of malaria in the vicinity of 1268 existing dams in SSA was mapped under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Population projections and malaria incidence estimates were used to compute population at risk of malaria in both RCPs. Assuming no change in socio-economic interventions that may mitigate impacts, the change in malaria stability and malaria burden in the vicinity of the dams was calculated for the two RCPs through to the 2080s. Results were compared against the 2010 baseline. The annual number of malaria cases associated with dams and climate change was determined for each of the RCPs. The number of dams located in malarious areas is projected to increase in both RCPs. Population growth will add to the risk of transmission. The population at risk of malaria around existing dams and associated reservoirs, is estimated to increase from 15 million in 2010 to 21-23 million in the 2020s, 25-26 million in the 2050s and 28-29 million in the 2080s, depending on RCP. The number of malaria cases associated with dams in malarious areas is expected to increase from 1.1 million in 2010 to 1.2-1.6 million in the 2020s, 2.1-3.0 million in the 2050s and 2.4-3.0 million in the 2080s depending on RCP. The number of cases will always be higher in RCP 8.5 than RCP 2.6. In the absence of changes in other factors that affect transmission (e.g., socio-economic), the impact of dams on malaria in SSA will be significantly exacerbated by climate change and increases in population. Areas without malaria transmission at present, which will transition to regions of unstable transmission, may be worst affected

  17. IMPACTS OF OWN BRANDS STRATEGY ON MANUFACTURER – RETAILER RELATIONSHIP: CASE STUDIES IN LARGE SIZE COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renato Telles

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The study of marketing and production strategy of own brand products requires an understanding of both the benefits gained by retailers and manufacturers involved in this activity and also the effects of this strategy on the relationship between these companies. According to this idea, a qualitative and descriptive work was conducted, based on six case studies, three of them on large product manufacturers and three on large retailers. The aim of this study is defined is threefold: (1 to analyze the expectations of manufacturers and retailers with their own brands’ current operations, (2 to analyze the expectations of manufacturers and retailers with their own brands’ future operations, and (3 to analyze the influence of the own brands adoption on the relationship between manufacturers and retailers. The results indicate that (a current operations are primarily based on economic reasons (market share, and use of spare capacity, (b future operations are perceived from a marketing perspective (survival, and (c the adoption of own brand strategy does not harm the relationship between the parties – both manufacturers and retailers –, unlike the earlier studies indicated.

  18. Impact of rapid condensations of large vapor spaces on natural circulation in integral systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Z.; Almenas, K.; DiMarzo, M.; Hsu, Y.Y.; Unal, C.

    1992-01-01

    In this study we demonstrated that the Interruption-Resumption flow mode (IRM) observed in the University of Maryland 2x4 loop is a unique and effective natural circulation cooling mode. The IRM flow mode consists of a series of large flow cycles which are initiated from a quiescent steady-state flow condition by periodic rapid condensation of large vapor spaces. The significance of this mass/energy transport mechanism is that it cannot be evaluated using the techniques developed for the commonly known density-driven natural circulation cooling mode. We also demonstrated that the rapid condensation mechanism essentially acts as a strong amplifier which will augment small perturbations and will activate several flow phenomena. The interplay of the phenomena involves a degree of randomness. This poses two important implications. First, the study of an isolated flow phenomenon is not sufficient for the understanding of the system-wide IRM fluid movement. Second, the duplication of reactor transients which involves randomness can be achieved only within certain bounds. The modeling of such transients by deterministic computer codes requires recognition of this physical reality. (orig.)

  19. Evolution of the Banana Genome (Musa acuminata) Is Impacted by Large Chromosomal Translocations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Guillaume; Carreel, Françoise; Coriton, Olivier; Hervouet, Catherine; Cardi, Céline; Derouault, Paco; Roques, Danièle; Salmon, Frédéric; Rouard, Mathieu; Sardos, Julie; Labadie, Karine; Baurens, Franc-Christophe; D'Hont, Angélique

    2017-09-01

    Most banana cultivars are triploid seedless parthenocarpic clones derived from hybridization between Musa acuminata subspecies and sometimes M. balbisiana. M. acuminata subspecies were suggested to differ by a few large chromosomal rearrangements based on chromosome pairing configurations in intersubspecies hybrids. We searched for large chromosomal rearrangements in a seedy M. acuminata ssp. malaccensis banana accession through mate-pair sequencing, BAC-FISH, targeted PCR and marker (DArTseq) segregation in its progeny. We identified a heterozygous reciprocal translocation involving two distal 3 and 10 Mb segments from chromosomes 01 and 04, respectively, and showed that it generated high segregation distortion, reduced recombination and linkage between chromosomes 01 and 04 in its progeny. The two chromosome structures were found to be mutually exclusive in gametes and the rearranged structure was preferentially transmitted to the progeny. The rearranged chromosome structure was frequently found in triploid cultivars but present only in wild malaccensis ssp. accessions, thus suggesting that this rearrangement occurred in M. acuminata ssp. malaccensis. We propose a mechanism for the spread of this rearrangement in Musa diversity and suggest that this rearrangement could have played a role in the emergence of triploid cultivars. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

  20. Immigration has a large impact on the observed microbial community in anaerobic digesters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Rasmus Hansen; McIlroy, Simon Jon; Kristensen, Jannie Munk

    Anaerobic digestion (AD) is globally applied for bioenergy production. Although its widespread application, improved understanding of the underlying microbial ecology is needed to provide solutions for optimised process performance. In this study, we investigated the impact of immigration...... on the microbial community and conducted detailed investigations of bacteria from the hitherto undescribed phylum Hyd24-12, which’s role in AD has been overlooked so far. A total of 32 AD reactors at 18 Danish full-scale wastewater treatment plants were sampled during five years of operation. The bacterial...... immigration into account, would highly bias the conclusions. One of the most abundant non-immigrating bacteria belonged to candidate phylum Hyd24-12. Using differential coverage binning of multiple AD metagenomes, we retrieved the first genome of Hyd24-12. The genome allowed for detailed metabolic...

  1. Impact of large-scale energy efficiency programs on utility finances and consumer tariffs in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abhyankar, Nikit; Phadke, Amol

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to analyze the effect on utility finances and consumer tariffs of implementing utility-funded demand-side energy efficiency (EE) programs in India. We use the state of Delhi as a case study. We estimate that by 2015, the electric utilities in Delhi can potentially save nearly 14% of total sales. We examine the impacts on utility finances and consumer tariffs by developing scenarios that account for variations in the following factors: (a) incentive mechanisms for mitigating the financial risk of utilities, (b) whether utilities fund the EE programs only partially, (c) whether utilities sell the conserved electricity into spot markets and (d) the level of power shortages utilities are facing. We find that average consumer tariff would increase by 2.2% although consumers participating in EE programs benefit from reduction in their electricity consumption. While utility incentive mechanisms can mitigate utilities’ risk of losing long-run returns, they cannot address the risk of consistently negative cash flow. In case of power shortages, the cash flow risk is amplified (reaching up to 57% of utilities annual returns) and is very sensitive to marginal tariffs of consumers facing power shortages. We conclude by proposing solutions to mitigate utility risks. - Highlights: ► We model implementation of energy efficiency (EE) programs in Delhi, India. ► We examine the impact on utility finances and consumer tariffs from 2012 to 2015. ► We find that average consumer tariffs increase but participating consumers benefit. ► Existing regulatory mechanisms cannot address utilities’ risk of negative cash flow. ► Frequent true-ups or ex-ante revenue adjustment is required to address such risk.

  2. Warning and prevention based on estimates with large uncertainties: the case of low-frequency and large-impact events like tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinti, Stefano; Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo

    2013-04-01

    Geoscientists deal often with hazardous processes like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, hurricanes, etc., and their research is aimed not only to a better understanding of the physical processes, but also to provide assessment of the space and temporal evolution of a given individual event (i.e. to provide short-term prediction) and of the expected evolution of a group of events (i.e. to provide statistical estimates referred to a given return period, and a given geographical area). One of the main issues of any scientific method is how to cope with measurement errors, a topic which in case of forecast of ongoing or of future events translates into how to deal with forecast uncertainties. In general, the more data are available and processed to make a prediction, the more accurate the prediction is expected to be if the scientific approach is sound, and the smaller the associated uncertainties are. However, there are several important cases where assessment is to be made with insufficient data or insufficient time for processing, which leads to large uncertainties. Two examples can be given taken from tsunami science, since tsunamis are rare events that may have destructive power and very large impact. One example is the case of warning for a tsunami generated by a near-coast earthquake, which is an issue at the focus of the European funded project NearToWarn. Warning has to be launched before tsunami hits the coast, that is in a few minutes after its generation. This may imply that data collected in such a short time are not yet enough for an accurate evaluation, also because the implemented monitoring system (if any) could be inadequate (f.i. one reason of inadequacy could be that implementing a dense instrumental network could be judged too expensive for rare events) The second case is the long term prevention from tsunami strikes. Tsunami infrequency may imply that the historical record for a given piece of coast is too short to capture a statistical

  3. Downscaling the Impacts of Large-Scale LUCC on Surface Temperature along with IPCC RCPs: A Global Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangzheng Deng

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the potential impacts of large-scale land use and land cover changes (LUCC on surface temperature from a global perspective. As important types of LUCC, urbanization, deforestation, cultivated land reclamation, and grassland degradation have effects on the climate, the potential changes of the surface temperature caused by these four types of large-scale LUCC from 2010 to 2050 are downscaled, and this issue analyzed worldwide along with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. The first case study presents some evidence of the effects of future urbanization on surface temperature in the Northeast megalopolis of the United States of America (USA. In order to understand the potential climatological variability caused by future forest deforestation and vulnerability, we chose Brazilian Amazon region as the second case study. The third selected region in India as a typical region of cultivated land reclamation where the possible climatic impacts are explored. In the fourth case study, we simulate the surface temperature changes caused by future grassland degradation in Mongolia. Results show that the temperature in built-up area would increase obviously throughout the four land types. In addition, the effects of all four large-scale LUCC on monthly average temperature change would vary from month to month with obviously spatial heterogeneity.

  4. Research on the impacts of large-scale electric vehicles integration into power grid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Chuankun; Zhang, Jian

    2018-06-01

    Because of its special energy driving mode, electric vehicles can improve the efficiency of energy utilization and reduce the pollution to the environment, which is being paid more and more attention. But the charging behavior of electric vehicles is random and intermittent. If the electric vehicle is disordered charging in a large scale, it causes great pressure on the structure and operation of the power grid and affects the safety and economic operation of the power grid. With the development of V2G technology in electric vehicle, the study of the charging and discharging characteristics of electric vehicles is of great significance for improving the safe operation of the power grid and the efficiency of energy utilization.

  5. Impact of large scale wind power on the Nordic electricity system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holttinen, Hannele

    2006-01-01

    Integration costs of wind power depend on how much wind power and where, and the power system: load, generation flexibility, interconnections. When wind power is added to a large interconnected power system there is considerable smoothing effect for the production. Increase of reserve requirements will stay at a low level. 10 percent penetration of wind power is not a problem in Nordic countries, as long as wind power is built to all 4 countries. Increasing the share of wind power will increase the integration costs. 20 percent penetration would need more flexibility in the system. That will not happen in the near future for Nordel, and the power system will probably also contain more flexible elements at that stage, like producing fuel for vehicles (ml)

  6. The large-scale integration of wind generation: Impacts on price, reliability and dispatchable conventional suppliers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacCormack, John; Hollis, Aidan; Zareipour, Hamidreza; Rosehart, William

    2010-01-01

    This work examines the effects of large-scale integration of wind powered electricity generation in a deregulated energy-only market on loads (in terms of electricity prices and supply reliability) and dispatchable conventional power suppliers. Hourly models of wind generation time series, load and resultant residual demand are created. From these a non-chronological residual demand duration curve is developed that is combined with a probabilistic model of dispatchable conventional generator availability, a model of an energy-only market with a price cap, and a model of generator costs and dispatch behavior. A number of simulations are performed to evaluate the effect on electricity prices, overall reliability of supply, the ability of a dominant supplier acting strategically to profitably withhold supplies, and the fixed cost recovery of dispatchable conventional power suppliers at different levels of wind generation penetration. Medium and long term responses of the market and/or regulator in the long term are discussed.

  7. Performance on large-scale science tests: Item attributes that may impact achievement scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Janet Victoria

    Significant differences in achievement among ethnic groups persist on the eighth-grade science Washington Assessment of Student Learning (WASL). The WASL measures academic performance in science using both scenario and stand-alone question types. Previous research suggests that presenting target items connected to an authentic context, like scenario question types, can increase science achievement scores especially in underrepresented groups and thus help to close the achievement gap. The purpose of this study was to identify significant differences in performance between gender and ethnic subgroups by question type on the 2005 eighth-grade science WASL. MANOVA and ANOVA were used to examine relationships between gender and ethnic subgroups as independent variables with achievement scores on scenario and stand-alone question types as dependent variables. MANOVA revealed no significant effects for gender, suggesting that the 2005 eighth-grade science WASL was gender neutral. However, there were significant effects for ethnicity. ANOVA revealed significant effects for ethnicity and ethnicity by gender interaction in both question types. Effect sizes were negligible for the ethnicity by gender interaction. Large effect sizes between ethnicities on scenario question types became moderate to small effect sizes on stand-alone question types. This indicates the score advantage the higher performing subgroups had over the lower performing subgroups was not as large on stand-alone question types compared to scenario question types. A further comparison examined performance on multiple-choice items only within both question types. Similar achievement patterns between ethnicities emerged; however, achievement patterns between genders changed in boys' favor. Scenario question types appeared to register differences between ethnic groups to a greater degree than stand-alone question types. These differences may be attributable to individual differences in cognition

  8. From efficacy research to large-scale impact on undernutrition: the role of organizational cultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelletier, David; Pelto, Gretel

    2013-11-01

    Undernutrition in low-income countries is receiving unprecedented attention at global and national levels due to the convergence of many forces, including strong evidence concerning its magnitude, consequences, and potential solutions and effective advocacy by many organizations. The translation of this attention into large-scale reductions in undernutrition at the country level requires the alignment and support of many organizations in the development and implementation of a coherent policy agenda for nutrition, including the strengthening of operational and strategic capacities and a supportive research agenda. However, many countries experience difficulties achieving such alignment. This article uses the concept of organizational culture to better understand some of the reasons for these difficulties. This concept is applied to the constellation of organizations that make up the "National Nutrition Network" in a given country and some of the individual organizations within that network, including academic institutions that conduct research on undernutrition. We illustrate this concept through a case study involving a middle-income country. We conclude that efforts to align organizations in support of coherent nutrition agendas should do the following: 1) make intentional and sustained efforts to foster common understanding, shared learning, and socialization of new members and other elements of a shared culture among partners; 2) seek a way to frame problems and solutions in a fashion that enables individual organizations to secure some of their particular interests by joining the effort; and 3) not only advocate on the importance of nutrition but also insist that high-level officials hold organizations accountable for aligning in support of common-interest solutions (through some elements of a common culture) that can be effective and appropriate in the national context. We further conclude that a culture change is needed within academic departments if the

  9. The International Impact of US Unconventional Monetary Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lutz, Chandler

    2015-01-01

    Using a structural factor-augmented vector autoregression model and a large data set of daily time series, we study the impact of US unconventional monetary policy on British and German financial markets. Our findings indicate that a surprise US unconventional monetary policy easing leads...

  10. Impact of ultralight axion self-interactions on the large scale structure of the Universe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desjacques, Vincent; Kehagias, Alex; Riotto, Antonio

    2018-01-01

    Ultralight axions have sparked attention because their tiny mass m ˜10-22 eV , which leads to a kiloparsec-scale de Broglie wavelength comparable to the size of a dwarf galaxy, could alleviate the so-called small-scale crisis of massive cold dark matter (CDM) candidates. However, recent analyses of the Lyman-α forest power spectrum set a tight lower bound on their mass of m ≳10-21 eV which makes them much less relevant from an astrophysical point of view. An important caveat to these numerical studies is that they do not take into account self-interactions among ultralight axions. Furthermore, for axions which acquired a mass through nonperturbative effects, this self-interaction is attractive and, therefore, could counteract the quantum "pressure" induced by the strong delocalization of the particles. In this work, we show that even a tiny attractive interaction among ultralight axions can have a significant impact on the stability of cosmic structures at low redshift. After a brief review of known results about solitons in the absence of gravity, we discuss the stability of filamentary and pancakelike solutions when quantum pressure, attractive interactions and gravity are present. The analysis based on 1 degree of freedom, namely the breathing mode, reveals that pancakes are stable, while filaments are unstable if the mass per unit length is larger than a critical value. However, we show that pancakes are unstable against transverse perturbations. We expect this to be true for halos and filaments as well. Instabilities driven by the breathing mode will not be seen in the low column density Lyman-α forest unless the axion decay constant is extremely small, f ≲1013 GeV . Notwithstanding, axion solitonic cores could leave a detectable signature in the Lyman-α forest if the normalization of the unknown axion core—filament mass relation is ˜100 larger than it is for spherical halos. We hope our work motivates future numerical studies of the impact of axion

  11. Impacts of Large Amounts of Wind Power on Design and Operation of Power Systems; Results of IEA Collaboration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parsons, B. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ela, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Holttinen, H. [VTT (Finland); Meibom, P. [DTU Riso (Denmark); Orths, A. [Energinet.dk (Denmark); O' Malley, M. [Univ. College Dubline (Ireland); Ummels, B. C. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Tande, J. [SINTEF (Norway); Estanqueiro, A. [INETI (Portugal); Gomez, E. [Univ. Castilla la Mancha (Spain); Smith, J. C. [Utility Wind Integration Group (UWIG), Reston, VA (United States)

    2008-06-01

    There are a multitude of studies completed and ongoing related to the cost of wind integration. However, the results are not easy to compare. An international forum for exchange of knowledge of power system impacts of wind power has been formed under the IEA Implementing Agreement on Wind Energy. IEA WIND R&D Task 25 on “Design and Operation of Power Systems with Large Amounts of Wind Power” produced a state-of-the-art report in October 2007, where the most relevant wind-power grid integration studies were analyzed, especially regarding methodologies and input data. This paper summarizes the results from 18 case studies, with discussion on differences in methodology as well as issues that have been identified to impact the cost of wind integration.

  12. Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Homer, Collin G.; Kleinhesselink, Andrew R.; Adler, Peter B.

    2016-01-01

    Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. We overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates in the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.

  13. Characterizing Agricultural Impacts of Recent Large-Scale US Droughts and Changing Technology and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Joshua; Glotter, Michael; Ruane, Alex C.; Boote, Kenneth J.; Hatfield, Jerry L.; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Smith, Leonard A.; Foster, Ian

    2017-01-01

    Process-based agricultural models, applied in novel ways, can reproduce historical crop yield anomalies in the US, with median absolute deviation from observations of 6.7% at national-level and 11% at state-level. In seasons for which drought is the overriding factor, performance is further improved. Historical counterfactual scenarios for the 1988 and 2012 droughts show that changes in agricultural technologies and management have reduced system-level drought sensitivity in US maize production by about 25% in the intervening years. Finally, we estimate the economic costs of the two droughts in terms of insured and uninsured crop losses in each US county (for a total, adjusted for inflation, of $9 billion in 1988 and $21.6 billion in 2012). We compare these with cost estimates from the counterfactual scenarios and with crop indemnity data where available. Model based measures are capable of accurately reproducing the direct agro-economic losses associated with extreme drought and can be used to characterize and compare events that occurred under very different conditions. This work suggests new approaches to modeling, monitoring, forecasting, and evaluating drought impacts on agriculture, as well as evaluating technological changes to inform adaptation strategies for future climate change and extreme events.

  14. Impact of a Dedicated Emergency Medicine Teaching Resident Rotation at a Large Urban Academic Center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, James; Golden, Andrew; Bryant, Alyssa; Babcock, Christine

    2016-03-01

    In the face of declining bedside teaching and increasing emergency department (ED) crowding, balancing education and patient care is a challenge. Dedicated shifts by teaching residents (TRs) in the ED represent an educational intervention to mitigate these difficulties. We aimed to measure the perceived learning and departmental impact created by having TR. TRs were present in the ED from 12 pm-10 pm daily, and their primary roles were to provide the following: assist in teaching procedures, give brief "chalk talks," instruct junior trainees on interesting cases, and answer clinical questions in an evidence-based manner. This observational study included a survey of fourth-year medical students (MSs), residents and faculty at an academic ED. Surveys measured the perceived effect of the TR on teaching, patient flow, ease of procedures, and clinical care. Survey response rates for medical students, residents, and faculty are 56%, 77%, and 75%, respectively. MSs perceived improved procedure performance with TR presence and the majority agreed that the TR was a valuable educational experience. Residents perceived increased patient flow, procedure performance, and MS learning with TR presence. The majority agreed that the TR improved patient care. Faculty agreed that the TR increased resident and MS learning, as well as improved patient care and procedure performance. The presence of a TR increased MS and resident learning, improved patient care and procedure performance as perceived by MSs, residents and faculty. A dedicated TR program can provide a valuable resource in achieving a balance of clinical education and high quality healthcare.

  15. Large surface scintillators as base of impact point detectors and their application in Space Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayuso, Sindulfo; Medina, José; Gómez-Herrero, Raul; José Blanco, Juan; García-Tejedor, Ignacio; García-Población, Oscar; Díaz-Romeral, Gonzalo

    2016-04-01

    The use of a pile of two 100 cm x 100 cm x 5 cm BC-400 organic scintillators is proposed as ground-based cosmic ray detector able to provide directional information on the incident muons. The challenge is to get in real time the muon impact point on the scintillator and its arrival direction using as few Photomultiplier Tubes (PMTs) as possible. The instrument is based on the dependence of attenuation of light with the traversed distance in each scintillator. For the time being, four photomultiplier tubes gather the light through the lateral faces (100 cm x 5 cm) of the scintillator. Several experiments have already been carried out. The results show how data contain information about the muon trajectory through the scintillator. This information can be extracted using the pulse heights collected by the PMTs working in coincidence mode. Reliability and accuracy of results strongly depend on the number of PMTs used and mainly on their appropriate geometrical arrangement with regard to the scintillator. In order to determine the optimal position and the minimum number of PMTs required, a Montecarlo simulation code has been developed. Preliminary experimental and simulation results are presented and the potential of the system for space weather monitoring is discussed.

  16. Characterizing agricultural impacts of recent large-scale US droughts and changing technology and management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elliott, Joshua [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States). Computation Inst.; Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Lemont, IL (United States); Glotter, Michael [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States). Dept. of the Geophysical Sciences; Ruane, Alex C. [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States); Boote, Kenneth J. [Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States). Agricultural and Biological Engineering Dept.; Hatfield, Jerry L. [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Ames, IA (United States). National Lab. for Agriculture and the Environment; Jones, James W. [Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States). Agricultural and Biological Engineering Dept.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States); Smith, Leonard A. [London School of Economics, London (United Kingdom). Center for Analysis of Time Series; Foster, Ian [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States). Computation Inst.; Computation Inst.; Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Lemont, IL (United States)

    2018-01-01

    Process-based agricultural models, applied in novel ways, can reproduce historical crop yield anomalies in the US, with median absolute deviation from observations of 6.7% at national-level and 11% at state-level. In seasons for which drought is the overriding factor, performance is further improved. Historical counterfactual scenarios for the 1988 and 2012 droughts show that changes in agricultural technologies and management have reduced system-level drought sensitivity in US maize production by about 25% in the intervening years. Finally, we estimate the economic costs of the two droughts in terms of insured and uninsured crop losses in each US county (for a total, adjusted for inflation, of $9 billion in 1988 and $21.6 billion in 2012). We compare these with cost estimates from the counterfactual scenarios and with crop indemnity data where available. Model-based measures are capable of accurately reproducing the direct agro-economic losses associated with extreme drought and can be used to characterize and compare events that occurred under very different conditions. This work suggests new approaches to modeling, monitoring, forecasting, and evaluating drought impacts on agriculture, as well as evaluating technological changes to inform adaptation strategies for future climate change and extreme events.

  17. Impacts of a large boreal wildfire on ground level atmospheric concentrations of PAHs, VOCs and ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wentworth, Gregory R.; Aklilu, Yayne-abeba; Landis, Matthew S.; Hsu, Yu-Mei

    2018-04-01

    During May 2016 a very large boreal wildfire burned throughout the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in central Canada, and in close proximity to an extensive air quality monitoring network. This study examines speciated 24-h integrated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) and volatile organic compound (VOC) measurements collected every sixth day at four and seven sites, respectively, from May to August 2016. The sum of PAHs (ΣPAH) was on average 17 times higher in fire-influenced samples (852 ng m-3, n = 8), relative to non-fire influenced samples (50 ng m-3, n = 64). Diagnostic PAH ratios in fire-influenced samples were indicative of a biomass burning source, whereas ratios in June to August samples showed additional influence from petrogenic and fossil fuel combustion. The average increase in the sum of VOCs (ΣVOC) was minor by comparison: 63 ppbv for fire-influenced samples (n = 16) versus 46 ppbv for non-fire samples (n = 90). The samples collected on August 16th and 22nd had large ΣVOC concentrations at all sites (average of 123 ppbv) that were unrelated to wildfire emissions, and composed primarily of acetaldehyde and methanol suggesting a photochemically aged air mass. Normalized excess enhancement ratios (ERs) were calculated for 20 VOCs and 23 PAHs for three fire influenced samples, and the former were generally consistent with previous observations. To our knowledge, this is the first study to report ER measurements for a number of VOCs and PAHs in fresh North American boreal wildfire plumes. During May the aged wildfire plume intercepted the cities of Edmonton (∼380 km south) or Lethbridge (∼790 km south) on four separate occasions. No enhancement in ground-level ozone (O3) was observed in these aged plumes despite an assumed increase in O3 precursors. In the AOSR, the only daily-averaged VOCs which approached or exceeded the hourly Alberta Ambient Air Quality Objectives (AAAQOs) were benzene (during the fire) and acetaldehyde (on August 16th

  18. A comparative study of the impact of ERP systems implementation on large companies in Slovakia and Slovenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sudzina, Frantisek; Pucihar, Andreja; Lenart, Gregor

    2011-01-01

    a significant difference in the impact of ERP systems implementation on overall IS/IT costs can be found, as well as on the proportion of the IT/IS costs attributed to IT and other departments, on efficiency as profitability, on effectiveness as productivity, and on the availability of IS/IT services....... The research is based on data from large Slovak and Slovenian companies. The models control for the extent and successfulness of the ERP system implementation and for the IT focus of the company....

  19. Field quality in low-β superconducting quadrupoles and impact on the beam dynamics for the Large Hadron Collider upgrade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Bellesia

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available A possible scenario for the luminosity upgrade of the Large Hadron Collider is based on large aperture quadrupoles to lower β^{*} in the interaction regions. Here we analyze the measurements relative to the field quality of the RHIC and LHC superconducting quadrupoles to find out the dependence of field errors on the size of the magnet aperture. Data are interpreted in the framework of a Monte Carlo analysis giving the reproducibility in the coil positioning reached in each production. We show that this precision is likely to be independent of the magnet aperture. Using this result, we can carry out an estimate of the impact of the field quality on the beam dynamics for the collision optics.

  20. Impacts of compressed air energy storage plant on an electricity market with a large renewable energy portfolio

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foley, A.; Díaz Lobera, I.

    2013-01-01

    Renewable energy generation is expected to continue to increase globally due to renewable energy targets and obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Some renewable energy sources are variable power sources, for example wind, wave and solar. Energy storage technologies can manage the issues associated with variable renewable generation and align non-dispatchable renewable energy generation with load demands. Energy storage technologies can play different roles in each of the step of the electric power supply chain. Moreover, large scale energy storage systems can act as renewable energy integrators by smoothing the variability. Compressed air energy storage is one such technology. This paper examines the impacts of a compressed air energy storage facility in a pool based wholesale electricity market in a power system with a large renewable energy portfolio

  1. The impact of large structural brain changes in chronic stroke patients on the electric field caused by transcranial brain stimulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Minjoli, Sena; Saturnino, Guilherme B.; Blicher, Jakob Udby

    2017-01-01

    aimed to characterize the impact of these changes on the spatial distribution of the electric field generated by both TBS methods. In addition to confirming the safety of TBS in the presence of large stroke-related structural changes, our aim was to clarify whether targeted stimulation is still possible....... Realistic head models containing large cortical and subcortical stroke lesions in the right parietal cortex were created using MR images of two patients. For TMS, the electric field of a double coil was simulated using the finite-element method. Systematic variations of the coil position relative...... to the lesion were tested. For TDCS, the finite-element method was used to simulate a standard approach with two electrode pads, and the position of one electrode was systematically varied. For both TMS and TDCS, the lesion caused electric field " hot spots" in the cortex. However, these maxima were...

  2. Unexpectedly large impact of forest management and grazing on global vegetation biomass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erb, Karl-Heinz; Kastner, Thomas; Plutzar, Christoph; Bais, Anna Liza S.; Carvalhais, Nuno; Fetzel, Tamara; Gingrich, Simone; Haberl, Helmut; Lauk, Christian; Niedertscheider, Maria; Pongratz, Julia; Thurner, Martin; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan

    2018-01-01

    Carbon stocks in vegetation have a key role in the climate system. However, the magnitude, patterns and uncertainties of carbon stocks and the effect of land use on the stocks remain poorly quantified. Here we show, using state-of-the-art datasets, that vegetation currently stores around 450 petagrams of carbon. In the hypothetical absence of land use, potential vegetation would store around 916 petagrams of carbon, under current climate conditions. This difference highlights the massive effect of land use on biomass stocks. Deforestation and other land-cover changes are responsible for 53-58% of the difference between current and potential biomass stocks. Land management effects (the biomass stock changes induced by land use within the same land cover) contribute 42-47%, but have been underestimated in the literature. Therefore, avoiding deforestation is necessary but not sufficient for mitigation of climate change. Our results imply that trade-offs exist between conserving carbon stocks on managed land and raising the contribution of biomass to raw material and energy supply for the mitigation of climate change. Efforts to raise biomass stocks are currently verifiable only in temperate forests, where their potential is limited. By contrast, large uncertainties hinder verification in the tropical forest, where the largest potential is located, pointing to challenges for the upcoming stocktaking exercises under the Paris agreement.

  3. Impact of Data Placement on Resilience in Large-Scale Object Storage Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carns, Philip; Harms, Kevin; Jenkins, John; Mubarak, Misbah; Ross, Robert; Carothers, Christopher

    2016-05-02

    Distributed object storage architectures have become the de facto standard for high-performance storage in big data, cloud, and HPC computing. Object storage deployments using commodity hardware to reduce costs often employ object replication as a method to achieve data resilience. Repairing object replicas after failure is a daunting task for systems with thousands of servers and billions of objects, however, and it is increasingly difficult to evaluate such scenarios at scale on realworld systems. Resilience and availability are both compromised if objects are not repaired in a timely manner. In this work we leverage a high-fidelity discrete-event simulation model to investigate replica reconstruction on large-scale object storage systems with thousands of servers, billions of objects, and petabytes of data. We evaluate the behavior of CRUSH, a well-known object placement algorithm, and identify configuration scenarios in which aggregate rebuild performance is constrained by object placement policies. After determining the root cause of this bottleneck, we then propose enhancements to CRUSH and the usage policies atop it to enable scalable replica reconstruction. We use these methods to demonstrate a simulated aggregate rebuild rate of 410 GiB/s (within 5% of projected ideal linear scaling) on a 1,024-node commodity storage system. We also uncover an unexpected phenomenon in rebuild performance based on the characteristics of the data stored on the system.

  4. Unexpectedly large impact of forest management and grazing on global vegetation biomass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erb, Karl-Heinz; Kastner, Thomas; Plutzar, Christoph; Bais, Anna Liza S; Carvalhais, Nuno; Fetzel, Tamara; Gingrich, Simone; Haberl, Helmut; Lauk, Christian; Niedertscheider, Maria; Pongratz, Julia; Thurner, Martin; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan

    2018-01-04

    Carbon stocks in vegetation have a key role in the climate system. However, the magnitude, patterns and uncertainties of carbon stocks and the effect of land use on the stocks remain poorly quantified. Here we show, using state-of-the-art datasets, that vegetation currently stores around 450 petagrams of carbon. In the hypothetical absence of land use, potential vegetation would store around 916 petagrams of carbon, under current climate conditions. This difference highlights the massive effect of land use on biomass stocks. Deforestation and other land-cover changes are responsible for 53-58% of the difference between current and potential biomass stocks. Land management effects (the biomass stock changes induced by land use within the same land cover) contribute 42-47%, but have been underestimated in the literature. Therefore, avoiding deforestation is necessary but not sufficient for mitigation of climate change. Our results imply that trade-offs exist between conserving carbon stocks on managed land and raising the contribution of biomass to raw material and energy supply for the mitigation of climate change. Efforts to raise biomass stocks are currently verifiable only in temperate forests, where their potential is limited. By contrast, large uncertainties hinder verification in the tropical forest, where the largest potential is located, pointing to challenges for the upcoming stocktaking exercises under the Paris agreement.

  5. Subclinical hypothyroidism and mortality in a large Austrian cohort: a possible impact on treatment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovar, Florian Maria; Fang, I-Fei; Perkmann, Thomas; Haslacher, Helmuth; Slavka, Georg; Födinger, Manuela; Endler, Georg; Wagner, Oswald F

    2015-12-01

    Clinical implications of subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH) are still matter of intense debate, resulting in the controversial discussion whether subclinical hypothyroidism should be treated. We performed a cohort study to evaluate the impact of subclinical hypothyroidism on vascular and overall mortality. Between 02/1993 and 03/2004, a total of 103,135 persons attending the General Hospital Vienna with baseline serum thyrotropin (TSH, thyroid-stimulating hormone) and free thyroxin (fT4) measurements could be enrolled in a retrospective cohort study. Subclinical hypothyroidism was defined by elevated TSH ranging from 4.5 to 20.0 mIU/L and normal fT4 concentration (0.7-1.7 ng/dL). Overall and vascular mortality as primary endpoints were assessed via record linkage with the Austrian Death Registry. A total of 80,490 subjects fulfilled inclusion criteria of whom 3934 participants (3.7%) were classified as SCH (868 males and 3066 females, median age 48 years). The mean follow-up among the 80,490 subjects was 4.1 years yielding an observation period of 373,301 person-years at risk. In a multivariate Cox regression model adjusted for age and gender TSH levels showed a dose-dependent association with all-cause mortality. The association between SCH and overall or vascular mortality was stronger in men below 60 years compared to older males or females. Our data support the hypothesis that SCH might represent an independent risk factor for overall and vascular mortality, especially in men below 60 years. Whether this group would benefit from replacement therapy should be evaluated in interventional studies.

  6. Impact of a Dedicated Emergency Medicine Teaching Resident Rotation at a Large Urban Academic Center

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Ahn, MD

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In the face of declining bedside teaching and increasing emergency department (ED crowding, balancing education and patient care is a challenge. Dedicated shifts by teaching residents (TRs in the ED represent an educational intervention to mitigate these difficulties. We aimed to measure the perceived learning and departmental impact created by having TR. Methods: TRs were present in the ED from 12pm-10pm daily, and their primary roles were to provide the following: assist in teaching procedures, give brief “chalk talks,” instruct junior trainees on interesting cases, and answer clinical questions in an evidence-based manner. This observational study included a survey of fourth-year medical students (MSs, residents and faculty at an academic ED. Surveys measured the perceived effect of the TR on teaching, patient flow, ease of procedures, and clinical care. Results: Survey response rates for medical students, residents, and faculty are 56%, 77%, and 75%, respectively. MSs perceived improved procedure performance with TR presence and the majority agreed that the TR was a valuable educational experience. Residents perceived increased patient flow, procedure performance, and MS learning with TR presence. The majority agreed that the TR improved patient care. Faculty agreed that the TR increased resident and MS learning, as well as improved patient care and procedure performance. Conclusion: The presence of a TR increased MS and resident learning, improved patient care and procedure performance as perceived by MSs, residents and faculty. A dedicated TR program can provide a valuable resource in achieving a balance of clinical education and high quality healthcare.

  7. Perturbations in the initial soil moisture conditions: Impacts on hydrologic simulation in a large river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niroula, Sundar; Halder, Subhadeep; Ghosh, Subimal

    2018-06-01

    Real time hydrologic forecasting requires near accurate initial condition of soil moisture; however, continuous monitoring of soil moisture is not operational in many regions, such as, in Ganga basin, extended in Nepal, India and Bangladesh. Here, we examine the impacts of perturbation/error in the initial soil moisture conditions on simulated soil moisture and streamflow in Ganga basin and its propagation, during the summer monsoon season (June to September). This provides information regarding the required minimum duration of model simulation for attaining the model stability. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity model for hydrological simulations after validation. Multiple hydrologic simulations are performed, each of 21 days, initialized on every 5th day of the monsoon season for deficit, surplus and normal monsoon years. Each of these simulations is performed with the initial soil moisture condition obtained from long term runs along with positive and negative perturbations. The time required for the convergence of initial errors is obtained for all the cases. We find a quick convergence for the year with high rainfall as well as for the wet spells within a season. We further find high spatial variations in the time required for convergence; the region with high precipitation such as Lower Ganga basin attains convergence at a faster rate. Furthermore, deeper soil layers need more time for convergence. Our analysis is the first attempt on understanding the sensitivity of hydrological simulations of Ganga basin on initial soil moisture conditions. The results obtained here may be useful in understanding the spin-up requirements for operational hydrologic forecasts.

  8. Effect of Temperature Shock and Inventory Surprises on Natural Gas and Heating Oil Futures Returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, John Wei-Shan; Lin, Chien-Yu

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of temperature shock on both near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns by extending the weather and storage models of the previous study. Several notable findings from the empirical studies are presented. First, the expected temperature shock significantly and positively affects both the near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns. Next, significant temperature shock has effect on both the conditional mean and volatility of natural gas and heating oil prices. The results indicate that expected inventory surprises significantly and negatively affects the far-month natural gas futures returns. Moreover, volatility of natural gas futures returns is higher on Thursdays and that of near-month heating oil futures returns is higher on Wednesdays than other days. Finally, it is found that storage announcement for natural gas significantly affects near-month and far-month natural gas futures returns. Furthermore, both natural gas and heating oil futures returns are affected more by the weighted average temperature reported by multiple weather reporting stations than that reported by a single weather reporting station. PMID:25133233

  9. The impact of 18F-FDG PET on the management of patients with suspected large vessel vasculitis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuchs, Martin; Rasch, Helmut; Berg, Scott; Ng, Quinn K.T.; Mueller-Brand, Jan; Walter, Martin A.; Briel, Matthias; Daikeler, Thomas; Tyndall, Alan; Walker, Ulrich A.; Raatz, Heike; Jayne, David; Koetter, Ina; Blockmans, Daniel; Cid, Maria C.; Prieto-Gonzalez, Sergio; Lamprecht, Peter; Salvarani, Carlo; Karageorgaki, Zaharenia; Watts, Richard; Luqmani, Raashid

    2012-01-01

    We aimed to assess the impact of 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) on the management of patients with suspected large vessel vasculitis. An international expert panel determined diagnoses and clinical management in patients with suspected large vessel vasculitis, with and without the results of 18 F-FDG PET, respectively. The accuracy of the clinical diagnosis and the resulting clinical management with and without the 18 F-FDG PET results were compared using logistic regression models. The analysis included 30 patients referred to a tertiary care centre with large vessel vasculitis and 31 controls. 18 F-FDG PET had an overall sensitivity of 73.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) 54.1-87.7%], a specificity of 83.9% (95% CI 66.3-94.5%), a positive predictive value of 81.5% (95% CI 61.9-93.7%) and a negative predictive value of 76.5% (95% CI 58.8-89.3%). The diagnostic accuracy of 18 F-FDG PET was higher in patients not receiving immunosuppressive drugs (93.3 vs 64.5%, p = 0.006). Taken in context with other available diagnostic modalities, the addition of 18 F-FDG PET increased the clinical diagnostic accuracy from 54.1 to 70.5% (p = 0.04). The addition of 18 F-FDG PET increased the number of indicated biopsies from 22 of 61 patients (36.1%) to 25 of 61 patients (41.0%) and changed the treatment recommendation in 8 of 30 patients (26.7%) not receiving immunosuppressive medication and in 7 of 31 patients (22.6%) receiving immunosuppressive medication. 18 F-FDG PET is a sensitive and specific imaging tool for large vessel vasculitis, especially when performed in patients not receiving immunosuppressive drugs. It increases the overall diagnostic accuracy and has an impact on the clinical management in a significant proportion of patients. (orig.)

  10. A Contrast-Based Computational Model of Surprise and Its Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macedo, Luis; Cardoso, Amílcar

    2017-11-19

    We review our work on a contrast-based computational model of surprise and its applications. The review is contextualized within related research from psychology, philosophy, and particularly artificial intelligence. Influenced by psychological theories of surprise, the model assumes that surprise-eliciting events initiate a series of cognitive processes that begin with the appraisal of the event as unexpected, continue with the interruption of ongoing activity and the focusing of attention on the unexpected event, and culminate in the analysis and evaluation of the event and the revision of beliefs. It is assumed that the intensity of surprise elicited by an event is a nonlinear function of the difference or contrast between the subjective probability of the event and that of the most probable alternative event (which is usually the expected event); and that the agent's behavior is partly controlled by actual and anticipated surprise. We describe applications of artificial agents that incorporate the proposed surprise model in three domains: the exploration of unknown environments, creativity, and intelligent transportation systems. These applications demonstrate the importance of surprise for decision making, active learning, creative reasoning, and selective attention. Copyright © 2017 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  11. The impact of a unique knowledge translation programme implemented in a large multisite paediatric hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Catie; Wessells, David; Byars, Michelle; Marrie, James; Coffman, Shaun; Gates, Erin; Selhorst, Mitch

    2017-04-01

    Physical therapists (PTs) display positive attitudes toward evidence-based practice (EBP), and implementing it can improve patient outcomes and reduce costs. However, barriers can lead to inconsistent use of EBP. The objectives of this manuscript are to (i) describe the initiation and revisions to a knowledge translation (KT) programme, (ii) assess staff participation in KT, and (iii) evaluate availability, internal use and external dissemination of evidence-based recommendations and research. The KT programme was implemented in a large paediatric hospital employing 66 PTs who provide services in the inpatient, outpatient developmental and sports and orthopaedics settings in 15 locations. The KT programme was initiated 9 years ago but underwent improvements over the past 3 years. Five key revisions included the subdivision of the EBP and Research Coordinator positions by area of practice, increasing the structure of the KT programme, implementing strategies to encourage use of local recommendations, obtaining leadership support to emphasize KT and providing staff education. With the revisions, staff participation in local recommendation development increased from 16.3-68.2%. Research involvement increased from 4.1-50%. The number of local recommendations increased from 1 to 9, and an overall compliance rate of 79% was achieved for the recommendations presented in an algorithm format. External dissemination increased from 1 to 44 for presentations and 0 to 7 for publications. Revisions to a KT programme improved PT engagement in KT activities, increased the availability of local recommendations, encouraged use of EBP and increased external dissemination of information. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Experimental study of the impact of large-scale wind farms on land–atmosphere exchanges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Wei; Markfort, Corey D; Porté-Agel, Fernando

    2013-01-01

    Large-scale wind farms, covering a significant portion of the land and ocean surface, may affect the transport of momentum, heat, mass and moisture between the atmosphere and the land locally and globally. To understand the wind-farm–atmosphere interaction, we conducted wind-tunnel experiments to study the surface scalar (heat) flux using model wind farms, consisting of more than ten rows of wind turbines—having typical streamwise and spanwise spacings of five and four rotor diameters—in a neutral boundary layer with a heated surface. The spatial distribution of the surface heat flux was mapped with an array of surface heat flux sensors within the quasi-developed regime of the wind-farm flow. Although the overall surface heat flux change produced by the wind farms was found to be small, with a net reduction of 4% for a staggered wind farm and nearly zero change for an aligned wind farm, the highly heterogeneous spatial distribution of the surface heat flux, dependent on the wind-farm layout, was significant. The difference between the minimum and maximum surface heat fluxes could be up to 12% and 7% in aligned and staggered wind farms, respectively. This finding is important for planning intensive agriculture practice and optimizing farm land use strategy regarding wind energy project development. The well-controlled wind-tunnel experiments presented in this study also provide a first comprehensive dataset on turbulent flow and scalar transport in wind farms, which can be further used to develop and validate new parameterizations of surface scalar fluxes in numerical models. (letter)

  13. A Statistical Analysis of the Relationship between Harmonic Surprise and Preference in Popular Music.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Scott A; Rosen, David S; Grzywacz, Norberto M

    2017-01-01

    Studies have shown that some musical pieces may preferentially activate reward centers in the brain. Less is known, however, about the structural aspects of music that are associated with this activation. Based on the music cognition literature, we propose two hypotheses for why some musical pieces are preferred over others. The first, the Absolute-Surprise Hypothesis, states that unexpected events in music directly lead to pleasure. The second, the Contrastive-Surprise Hypothesis, proposes that the juxtaposition of unexpected events and subsequent expected events leads to an overall rewarding response. We tested these hypotheses within the framework of information theory, using the measure of "surprise." This information-theoretic variable mathematically describes how improbable an event is given a known distribution. We performed a statistical investigation of surprise in the harmonic structure of songs within a representative corpus of Western popular music, namely, the McGill Billboard Project corpus. We found that chords of songs in the top quartile of the Billboard chart showed greater average surprise than those in the bottom quartile. We also found that the different sections within top-quartile songs varied more in their average surprise than the sections within bottom-quartile songs. The results of this study are consistent with both the Absolute- and Contrastive-Surprise Hypotheses. Although these hypotheses seem contradictory to one another, we cannot yet discard the possibility that both absolute and contrastive types of surprise play roles in the enjoyment of popular music. We call this possibility the Hybrid-Surprise Hypothesis. The results of this statistical investigation have implications for both music cognition and the human neural mechanisms of esthetic judgments.

  14. Surprises from a Deep ASCA Spectrum of the Broad Absorption Line Quasar PHL 5200

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathur, Smita; Matt, G.; Green, P. J.; Elvis, M.; Singh, K. P.

    2002-01-01

    We present a deep (approx. 85 ks) ASCA observation of the prototype broad absorption line quasar (BALQSO) PHL 5200. This is the best X-ray spectrum of a BALQSO yet. We find the following: (1) The source is not intrinsically X-ray weak. (2) The line-of-sight absorption is very strong, with N(sub H) = 5 x 10(exp 23)/sq cm. (3) The absorber does not cover the source completely; the covering fraction is approx. 90%. This is consistent with the large optical polarization observed in this source, implying multiple lines of sight. The most surprising result of this observation is that (4) the spectrum of this BALQSO is not exactly similar to other radio-quiet quasars. The hard X-ray spectrum of PHL 5200 is steep, with the power-law spectral index alpha approx. 1.5. This is similar to the steepest hard X-ray slopes observed so far. At low redshifts, such steep slopes are observed in narrow-line Seyfert 1 (NLS1) galaxies, believed to be accreting at a high Eddington rate. This observation strengthens the analogy between BALQSOs and NLS1 galaxies and supports the hypothesis that BALQSOs represent an early evolutionary state of quasars. It is well accepted that the orientation to the line of sight determines the appearance of a quasar: age seems to play a significant role as well.

  15. The Ultraviolet Surprise. Efficient Soft X-Ray High Harmonic Generation in Multiply-Ionized Plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popmintchev, Dimitar; Hernandez-Garcia, Carlos; Dollar, Franklin; Mancuso, Christopher; Perez-Hernandez, Jose A.; Chen, Ming-Chang; Hankla, Amelia; Gao, Xiaohui; Shim, Bonggu; Gaeta, Alexander L.; Tarazkar, Maryam; Romanov, Dmitri A.; Levis, Robert J.; Gaffney, Jim A.; Foord, Mark; Libby, Stephen B.; Jaron-Becker, Agnieskzka; Becker, Andreas; Plaja, Luis; Muranane, Margaret M.; Kapteyn, Henry C.; Popmintchev, Tenio

    2015-01-01

    High-harmonic generation is a universal response of matter to strong femtosecond laser fields, coherently upconverting light to much shorter wavelengths. Optimizing the conversion of laser light into soft x-rays typically demands a trade-off between two competing factors. Reduced quantum diffusion of the radiating electron wave function results in emission from each species which is highest when a short-wavelength ultraviolet driving laser is used. But, phase matching - the constructive addition of x-ray waves from a large number of atoms - favors longer-wavelength mid-infrared lasers. We identified a regime of high-harmonic generation driven by 40-cycle ultraviolet lasers in waveguides that can generate bright beams in the soft x-ray region of the spectrum, up to photon energies of 280 electron volts. Surprisingly, the high ultraviolet refractive indices of both neutral atoms and ions enabled effective phase matching, even in a multiply ionized plasma. We observed harmonics with very narrow linewidths, while calculations show that the x-rays emerge as nearly time-bandwidt-limited pulse trains of ~100 attoseconds

  16. Reassessing the impacts and the atmospheric circulation of the large storms over Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varino, F.; Trigo, R. M.; Zêzere, J. L.

    2012-04-01

    The present work was made possible after the recently development of a database of flooding and landslide events that occurred in Portugal during the 20 century. This database was collected through careful analysis of most available daily Portuguese newspapers at the time, namely "Diário de Noticias" and "Século" describing the consequences of important hydro-geological hazards during the 20 century. Therefore it is possible to evaluate the impact of these events through relatively detailed reports of the most affected places, including; number of deaths, dislodged and evacuated people, and even involved rescue entities or costs. On the other hand, the analysis of meteorological conditions for these events was made possible through the recent development of the 20 Century Reanalysis dataset from National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Compo et al., 2011), that covers the entire period in study. This long-term database allows re-evaluating the atmospheric conditions not only at the surface but also at several levels of the atmosphere, enabling a new approach to the studied events. Moreover, the new reanalysis is also more extended in time, with available data from 1871 until 2008 which makes it possible to represent and study the weather events before 1948 with a new perspective. In this work it is analysed in detail the most important and devastating storm that took place since 1871, including the strongest sequence of storms ever observed in early December 1876 that lead to catastrophic floods in river Guadiana and Tagus. Other extreme events episodes that took place throughout the 20 century and never studied before are also analysed (albeit in less detail), namely on the 22 December 1909, 20 November 1937, 23 January and 1 February 1941, 19 November 1945, 2 January 1962 and 25 November 1967 the deadliest flood ever that occurred in Portugal. For each event it was computed the sequence of 6 hourly weather fields of precipitation rate and mean sea

  17. Summit surprises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, N

    1994-01-01

    A New Delhi Population Summit, organized by the Royal Society, the US National Academy of Sciences, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, and the Indian National Science Academy, was convened with representation of 120 (only 10% women) scientists from 50 countries and about 12 disciplines and 43 national scientific academies. Despite the common assumption that scientists never agree, a 3000 word statement was signed by 50 prominent national figures and supported by 25 professional papers on diverse subjects. The statement proclaimed that stable world population and "prodigious planning efforts" are required for dealing with global social, economic, and environmental problems. The target should be zero population growth by the next generation. The statement, although containing many uncompromising assertions, was not as strong as a statement by the Royal Society and the US National Academy of Sciences released last year: that, in the future, science and technology may not be able to prevent "irreversible degradation of the environment and continued poverty," and that the capacity to sustain life on the planet may be permanently jeopardized. The Delhi statement was backed by professional papers highlighting several important issues. Dr Mahmoud Fathalla of the Rockefeller Foundation claimed that the 500,000 annual maternal deaths worldwide, of which perhaps 33% are due to "coathanger" abortions, are given far less attention than a one-day political event of 500 deaths would receive. Although biologically women have been given a greater survival advantage, which is associated with their reproductive capacity, socially disadvantaged females are relegated to low status. There is poorer nutrition and overall health care for females, female infanticide, and female fetuses are increasingly aborted in China, India, and other countries. The sex ratio in developed countries is 95-97 males to every 100 females, but in developing Asian countries the ratio is 105 males to 100 females. There are reports of 60-100 million missing females. The human species 12,000 years ago had a population of 6 million, a life expectancy of 20 years, and a doubling time of 8000 years; high birth rates were important for preservation of the species. Profertility attitudes are still prevalent today. Insufficient funds go to contraceptive research.

  18. Impact on demersal fish of a large-scale and deep sand extraction site with ecosystem-based landscaped sandbars

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Jong, Maarten F.; Baptist, Martin J.; van Hal, Ralf; de Boois, Ingeborg J.; Lindeboom, Han J.; Hoekstra, Piet

    2014-06-01

    For the seaward harbour extension of the Port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, approximately 220 million m3 sand was extracted between 2009 and 2013. In order to decrease the surface area of direct impact, the authorities permitted deep sand extraction, down to 20 m below the seabed. Biological and physical impacts of large-scale and deep sand extraction are still being investigated and largely unknown. For this reason, we investigated the colonization of demersal fish in a deep sand extraction site. Two sandbars were artificially created by selective dredging, copying naturally occurring meso-scale bedforms to increase habitat heterogeneity and increasing post-dredging benthic and demersal fish species richness and biomass. Significant differences in demersal fish species assemblages in the sand extraction site were associated with variables such as water depth, median grain size, fraction of very fine sand, biomass of white furrow shell (Abra alba) and time after the cessation of sand extraction. Large quantities of undigested crushed white furrow shell fragments were found in all stomachs and intestines of plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), indicating that it is an important prey item. One and two years after cessation, a significant 20-fold increase in demersal fish biomass was observed in deep parts of the extraction site. In the troughs of a landscaped sandbar however, a significant drop in biomass down to reference levels and a significant change in species assemblage was observed two years after cessation. The fish assemblage at the crests of the sandbars differed significantly from the troughs with tub gurnard (Chelidonichthys lucerna) being a Dufrêne-Legendre indicator species of the crests. This is a first indication of the applicability of landscaping techniques to induce heterogeneity of the seabed although it remains difficult to draw a strong conclusion due the lack of replication in the experiment. A new ecological equilibrium is not reached after 2

  19. Impact of a novel training experience on the development of a customer service culture in a large hospital trust.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eales-Reynolds, Lesley-Jane; Clarke, Colin

    2012-01-01

    This study was designed with the intention of exploring the effectiveness of a novel approach to training health services workers to meet the aims of raising awareness of their customer care framework and encouraging a culture of customer service throughout their organisation. The impact of the educational intervention was examined using a mixed methods approach involving pre- and post-workshop questionnaires and one-to-one, semi-structured interviews. The paper finds that the approach adopted was effective in raising awareness of the customer care framework and in enhancing participant's self-efficacy in relation to the principles of customer care. Transference to the workplace was dependent on personality and departments having sufficient numbers of staff participating. Time and resources for the project limited the follow-up interviews designed to explore if, and to what extent, the learning had had a lasting impact on participants and if it had enabled transference to the workplace. In addition, complications in releasing people from work in order to take part meant that a number of volunteers had to withdraw. This limits the range of data obtained. This paper describes a novel research-informed approach to training, involving participants in high fidelity, error-based simulations and in a research process which facilitated their repeated reflection on the learning. As a result the paper demonstrates large-scale training of customer care can effectively impact on practice.

  20. A methodology for understanding the impacts of large-scale penetration of micro-combined heat and power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tapia-Ahumada, K.; Pérez-Arriaga, I.J.; Moniz, E.J.

    2013-01-01

    Co-generation at small kW-e scale has been stimulated in recent years by governments and energy regulators as one way to increasing energy efficiency and reducing CO 2 emissions. If a widespread adoption should be realized, their effects from a system's point of view are crucial to understand the contributions of this technology. Based on a methodology that uses long-term capacity planning expansion, this paper explores some of the implications for an electric power system of having a large number of micro-CHPs. Results show that fuel cells-based micro-CHPs have the best and most consistent performance for different residential demands from the customer and system's perspectives. As the penetration increases at important levels, gas-based technologies—particularly combined cycle units—are displaced in capacity and production, which impacts the operation of the electric system during summer peak hours. Other results suggest that the tariff design impacts the economic efficiency of the system and the operation of micro-CHPs under a price-based strategy. Finally, policies aimed at micro-CHPs should consider the suitability of the technology (in size and heat-to-power ratio) to meet individual demands, the operational complexities of a large penetration, and the adequacy of the economic signals to incentivize an efficient and sustainable operation. - Highlights: • Capacity displacements and daily operation of an electric power system are explored. • Benefits depend on energy mix, prices, and micro-CHP technology and control scheme. • Benefits are observed mostly in winter when micro-CHP heat and power are fully used. • Micro-CHPs mostly displace installed capacity from natural gas combined cycle units. • Tariff design impacts economic efficiency of the system and operation of micro-CHPs

  1. Air pollution impacts of speed limitation measures in large cities: The need for improving traffic data in a metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldasano, José M.; Gonçalves, María; Soret, Albert; Jiménez-Guerrero, Pedro

    2010-08-01

    Assessing the effects of air quality management strategies in urban areas is a major concern worldwide because of the large impacts on health caused by the exposure to air pollution. In this sense, this work analyses the changes in urban air quality due to the introduction of a maximum speed limit to 80 km h -1 on motorways in a large city by using a novel methodology combining traffic assimilation data and modelling systems implemented in a supercomputing facility. Albeit the methodology has been non-specifically developed and can be extrapolated to any large city or megacity, the case study of Barcelona is presented here. Hourly simulations take into account the entire year 2008 (when the 80 km h -1 limit has been introduced) vs. the traffic conditions for the year 2007. The data has been assimilated in an emission model, which considers hourly variable speeds and hourly traffic intensity in the affected area, taken from long-term measurement campaigns for the aforementioned years; it also permits to take into account the traffic congestion effect. Overall, the emissions are reduced up to 4%; however the local effects of this reduction achieve an important impact for the adjacent area to the roadways, reaching 11%. In this sense, the speed limitation effects assessed represent enhancements in air quality levels (5-7%) of primary pollutants over the area, directly improving the welfare of 1.35 million inhabitants (over 41% of the population of the Metropolitan Area) and affecting 3.29 million dwellers who are potentially benefited from this strategy for air quality management (reducing 0.6% the mortality rates in the area).

  2. Impact of problem-based learning in a large classroom setting: student perception and problem-solving skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klegeris, Andis; Hurren, Heather

    2011-12-01

    Problem-based learning (PBL) can be described as a learning environment where the problem drives the learning. This technique usually involves learning in small groups, which are supervised by tutors. It is becoming evident that PBL in a small-group setting has a robust positive effect on student learning and skills, including better problem-solving skills and an increase in overall motivation. However, very little research has been done on the educational benefits of PBL in a large classroom setting. Here, we describe a PBL approach (using tutorless groups) that was introduced as a supplement to standard didactic lectures in University of British Columbia Okanagan undergraduate biochemistry classes consisting of 45-85 students. PBL was chosen as an effective method to assist students in learning biochemical and physiological processes. By monitoring student attendance and using informal and formal surveys, we demonstrated that PBL has a significant positive impact on student motivation to attend and participate in the course work. Student responses indicated that PBL is superior to traditional lecture format with regard to the understanding of course content and retention of information. We also demonstrated that student problem-solving skills are significantly improved, but additional controlled studies are needed to determine how much PBL exercises contribute to this improvement. These preliminary data indicated several positive outcomes of using PBL in a large classroom setting, although further studies aimed at assessing student learning are needed to further justify implementation of this technique in courses delivered to large undergraduate classes.

  3. Distinct medial temporal networks encode surprise during motivation by reward versus punishment

    OpenAIRE

    Murty, Vishnu P.; LaBar, Kevin S.; Adcock, R. Alison

    2016-01-01

    Adaptive motivated behavior requires predictive internal representations of the environment, and surprising events are indications for encoding new representations of the environment. The medial temporal lobe memory system, including the hippocampus and surrounding cortex, encodes surprising events and is influenced by motivational state. Because behavior reflects the goals of an individual, we investigated whether motivational valence (i.e., pursuing rewards versus avoiding punishments) also...

  4. The impact of {sup 18}F-FDG PET on the management of patients with suspected large vessel vasculitis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuchs, Martin; Rasch, Helmut; Berg, Scott; Ng, Quinn K.T.; Mueller-Brand, Jan; Walter, Martin A. [University Hospital, Institute of Nuclear Medicine, Basel (Switzerland); Briel, Matthias [University Hospital Basel, Institute for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Basel (Switzerland); McMaster University, Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Hamilton, ON (Canada); Daikeler, Thomas; Tyndall, Alan [University Hospital Basel, Department of Rheumatology, Basel (Switzerland); Walker, Ulrich A. [Felix Platter Spital, Department of Rheumatology of Basle University, Basel (Switzerland); Raatz, Heike [University Hospital Basel, Institute for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Basel (Switzerland); Jayne, David [Addenbrooke' s Hospital, Vasculitis and Lupus Unit, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Koetter, Ina [University Hospital Tuebingen, Department of Internal Medicine II, Tuebingen (Germany); Blockmans, Daniel [University Hospital Gasthuisberg, Department of General Internal Medicine, Leuven (Belgium); Cid, Maria C.; Prieto-Gonzalez, Sergio [Hospital Clinic, University of Barcelona, IDIBAPS, Department of Systemic Autoimmune Diseases, 08036-Barcelona (Spain); Lamprecht, Peter [University Hospital of Schleswig-Holstein, Department of Rheumatology, Luebeck (Germany); Salvarani, Carlo [Arcispedale S. Maria Nuova, Department of Rheumatology, Reggio Emilia (Italy); Karageorgaki, Zaharenia [Agios Dimitrios General Hospital, 1st Department of Internal Medicine, Thessaloniki (Greece); Watts, Richard [University of East Anglia, Norwich Medical School, Norwich (United Kingdom); Ipswich Hospital NHS Trust, Ipswich (United Kingdom); Luqmani, Raashid [Nuffield Orthopaedic Centre, Department of Rheumatology, Oxford (United Kingdom)

    2012-02-15

    We aimed to assess the impact of {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) on the management of patients with suspected large vessel vasculitis. An international expert panel determined diagnoses and clinical management in patients with suspected large vessel vasculitis, with and without the results of {sup 18}F-FDG PET, respectively. The accuracy of the clinical diagnosis and the resulting clinical management with and without the {sup 18}F-FDG PET results were compared using logistic regression models. The analysis included 30 patients referred to a tertiary care centre with large vessel vasculitis and 31 controls. {sup 18}F-FDG PET had an overall sensitivity of 73.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) 54.1-87.7%], a specificity of 83.9% (95% CI 66.3-94.5%), a positive predictive value of 81.5% (95% CI 61.9-93.7%) and a negative predictive value of 76.5% (95% CI 58.8-89.3%). The diagnostic accuracy of {sup 18}F-FDG PET was higher in patients not receiving immunosuppressive drugs (93.3 vs 64.5%, p = 0.006). Taken in context with other available diagnostic modalities, the addition of {sup 18}F-FDG PET increased the clinical diagnostic accuracy from 54.1 to 70.5% (p = 0.04). The addition of {sup 18}F-FDG PET increased the number of indicated biopsies from 22 of 61 patients (36.1%) to 25 of 61 patients (41.0%) and changed the treatment recommendation in 8 of 30 patients (26.7%) not receiving immunosuppressive medication and in 7 of 31 patients (22.6%) receiving immunosuppressive medication. {sup 18}F-FDG PET is a sensitive and specific imaging tool for large vessel vasculitis, especially when performed in patients not receiving immunosuppressive drugs. It increases the overall diagnostic accuracy and has an impact on the clinical management in a significant proportion of patients. (orig.)

  5. Impact of Wind Shear and Tower Shadow Effects on Power System with Large Scale Wind Power Penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Su, Chi; Chen, Zhe

    2011-01-01

    presents a simulation model of a variable speed wind farm with permanent magnet synchronous generators (PMSGs) and fullscale back-to-back converters in the simulation tool of DIgSILENT/PowerFactory. In this paper, the impacts of wind shear and tower shadow effects on the small signal stability of power......Grid connected wind turbines are fluctuating power sources due to wind speed variations, the wind shear and the tower shadow effects. The fluctuating power may be able to excite the power system oscillation at a frequency close to the natural oscillation frequency of a power system. This paper...... systems with large scale wind power penetrations are investigated during continuous operation based on the wind turbine model and the power system model....

  6. Variation in sensitivity of large benthic Foraminifera to the combined effects of ocean warming and local impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prazeres, Martina; Roberts, T Edward; Pandolfi, John M

    2017-03-23

    Large benthic foraminifera (LBF) are crucial marine calcifiers in coral reefs, and sensitive to environmental changes. Yet, many species successfully colonise a wide range of habitats including highly fluctuating environments. We tested the combined effects of ocean warming, local impacts and different light levels on populations of the common LBF Amphistegina lobifera collected along a cross-shelf gradient of temperature and nutrients fluctuations. We analysed survivorship, bleaching frequency, chlorophyll a content and fecundity. Elevated temperature and nitrate significantly reduced survivorship and fecundity of A. lobifera across populations studied. This pattern was exacerbated when combined with below optimum light levels. Inshore populations showed a consistent resistance to increased temperature and nitrate levels, but all populations studied were significantly affected by light reduction. These findings demonstrated the capacity of some populations of LBF to acclimate to local conditions; nonetheless improvements in local water quality can ultimately ameliorate effects of climate change in local LBF populations.

  7. Data for Figures and Tables in "Impacts of Different Characterizations of Large-Scale Background on Simulated Regional-Scale Ozone Over the Continental U.S."

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset contains the data used in the Figures and Tables of the manuscript "Impacts of Different Characterizations of Large-Scale Background on Simulated...

  8. Ignorance, Vulnerability and the Occurrence of "Radical Surprises": Theoretical Reflections and Empirical Findings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhlicke, C.

    2009-04-01

    By definition natural disasters always contain a moment of surprise. Their occurrence is mostly unforeseen and unexpected. They hit people unprepared, overwhelm them and expose their helplessness. Yet, there is surprisingly little known on the reasons for their being surprised. Aren't natural disasters expectable and foreseeable after all? Aren't the return rates of most hazards well known and shouldn't people be better prepared? The central question of this presentation is hence: Why do natural disasters so often radically surprise people at all (and how can we explain this being surprised)? In the first part of the presentation, it is argued that most approaches to vulnerability are not able to grasp this moment of surprise. On the contrary, they have their strength in unravelling the expectable: A person who is marginalized or even oppressed in everyday life is also vulnerable during times of crisis and stress, at least this is the central assumption of most vulnerability studies. In the second part, an understanding of vulnerability is developed, which allows taking into account such radical surprises. First, two forms of the unknown are differentiated: An area of the unknown an actor is more or less aware of (ignorance), and an area, which is not even known to be not known (nescience). The discovery of the latter is mostly associated with a "radical surprise", since it is per definition impossible to prepare for it. Second, a definition of vulnerability is proposed, which allows capturing the dynamics of surprises: People are vulnerable when they discover their nescience exceeding by definition previously established routines, stocks of knowledge and resources—in a general sense their capacities—to deal with their physical and/or social environment. This definition explicitly takes the view of different actors serious and departs from their being surprised. In the third part findings of a case study are presented, the 2002 flood in Germany. It is shown

  9. Large Data Set Mining

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leemans, I.B.; Broomhall, Susan

    2017-01-01

    Digital emotion research has yet to make history. Until now large data set mining has not been a very active field of research in early modern emotion studies. This is indeed surprising since first, the early modern field has such rich, copyright-free, digitized data sets and second, emotion studies

  10. Characterization of anthropogenic impacts in a large urban center by examining the spatial distribution of halogenated flame retardants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Yan-Li; Bao, Lian-Jun; Wu, Chen-Chou; Zeng, Eddy Y

    2016-08-01

    Anthropogenic impacts have continuously intensified in mega urban centers with increasing urbanization and growing population. The spatial distribution pattern of such impacts can be assessed with soil halogenated flame retardants (HFRs) as HFRs are mostly derived from the production and use of various consumer products. In the present study, soil samples were collected from the Pearl River Delta (PRD), a large urbanized region in southern China, and its surrounding areas and analyzed for a group of HFRs, i.e., polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), decabromodiphenyl ethane, bis(hexachlorocyclopentadieno)cyclooctane (DP) and hexabromobenzene. The sum concentrations of HFRs and PBDEs were in the ranges of 0.66-6500 and 0.37-5700 (mean: 290 and 250) ng g(-1) dry weight, respectively, around the middle level of the global range. BDE-209 was the predominant compound likely due to the huge amounts of usage and its persistence. The concentrations of HFRs were greater in the land-use types of residency, industry and landfill than in agriculture, forestry and drinking water source, and were also greater in the central PRD than in its surrounding areas. The concentrations of HFRs were moderately significantly (r(2) = 0.32-0.57; p urbanization levels, population densities and gross domestic productions in fifteen administrative districts. The spatial distribution of DP isomers appeared to be stereoselective as indicated by the similarity in the spatial patterns for the ratio of anti-DP versus the sum of DP isomers (fanti-DP) and DP concentrations. Finally, the concentrations of HFRs sharply decreased with increasing distance from an e-waste recycling site, indicating that e-waste derived HFRs largely remained in local soil. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Differential impact of white matter hyperintensities on long-term outcomes in ischemic stroke patients with large artery atherosclerosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minyoul Baik

    Full Text Available The presence of white matter hyperintensity (WMH is related to poor long-term outcomes in stroke patients. However, the long-term outcome is unknown in patients with both large artery atherosclerosis (LAA and WMH.We investigated the impact of WMH on long-term outcome in patients with LAA. Consecutive patients in a prospective stroke registry were included. Patients were followed for a median of 7.7 years (interquartile range, 5.6-9.7. The degree of WMH was assessed by Fazekas grade on fluid-attenuated inversion recovery images. Total WMH burden was calculated by summation of Fazekas scores in periventricular and deep white matter. Severe WMH was defined as total burden score ≥ 3.Among 2529 patients, 639 patients (25.3% were classified with the LAA subtype. After applying exclusion criteria, the data from 538 patients were analyzed. The mean patient age was 65.7 ± 10.3 years. Severe WMHs were found in 243 patients (45.2%. During follow-up, 200 patients (37.2% died. Cox regression analysis showed that LAA patients with severe WMH had a 1.50-fold (95% CI, 1.12-2.00, p = 0.007 higher death rate compared to those without. In the older age group (≥65 years, Cox regression revealed that patients with severe WMH had a 1.75-fold (95% CI, 1.15-2.65, p = 0.008 higher 5-year death rate, whereas the younger age group did not have this association.The degree of WMH might be a surrogate marker for long-term outcome in patients with LAA. Atherosclerotic burdens in both small and large arteries might impact long-term prognosis in ischemic stroke patients.

  12. Mercury pollution in Wuchuan mercury mining area, Guizhou, Southwestern China: the impacts from large scale and artisanal mercury mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ping; Feng, Xinbin; Qiu, Guangle; Shang, Lihai; Wang, Shaofeng

    2012-07-01

    To evaluate the environmental impacts from large scale mercury mining (LSMM) and artisanal mercury mining (AMM), total mercury (THg) and methyl mercury (MeHg) were determined in mine waste, ambient air, stream water and soil samples collected from Wuchuan mercury (Hg) mining area, Guizhou, Southwestern China. Mine wastes from both LSMM and AMM contained high THg concentrations, which are important Hg contamination sources to the local environment. Total gaseous mercury (TGM) concentrations in the ambient air near AMM furnaces were highly elevated, which indicated that AMM retorting is a major source of Hg emission. THg concentrations in the stream water varied from 43 to 2100 ng/L, where the elevated values were mainly found in the vicinity of AMM and mine waste heaps of LSMM. Surface soils were seriously contaminated with Hg, and land using types and organic matter played an important role in accumulation and transportation of Hg in soil. The results indicated heavy Hg contaminations in the study area, which were resulted from both LSMM and AMM. The areas impacted by LSMM were concentrated in the historical mining and smelting facilities, while Hg pollution resulted from AMM can be distributed anywhere in the Hg mining area. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Impact of a smoke-free policy in a large psychiatric hospital on staff attitudes and patient behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voci, Sabrina; Bondy, Susan; Zawertailo, Laurie; Walker, Louise; George, Tony P; Selby, Peter

    2010-01-01

    The objectives of this work were to examine changes over time in degree of staff support for the implementation of a smoke-free policy in Canada's largest public mental health and addiction teaching hospital and to assess the impact of the policy on patient behavior. Staff completed an anonymous survey, which assessed views toward the smoke-free policy and perceived change in patient behavior, 2-7 and 31-33 months after an indoor smoke-free policy was implemented (September 21, 2005). Objective indicators of patient behavior were also collected in the form of number of emergency code whites (aggressive behavior) and that of code reds (fire) called 1 year prior to and 2 years following policy implementation. Survey response rates were 19.0% (n=481) and 18.1% (n=500) at 2-7 and 31-33 months, respectively. The proportion of staff who supported the policy increased from pre-implementation (82.6%) to post-implementation (89.1%), and a high level of support was maintained 2 years after policy enactment (90.1%). The number of emergency codes did not significantly change after policy implementation, and staff did not perceive a change in most forms of patient behavior. A smoke-free policy can be implemented in a large psychiatric hospital with a high degree of support from staff and no substantial negative impact on patient behavior. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. [Fall from height--surprising autopsy diagnosis in primarily unclear initial situations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schyma, Christian; Doberentz, Elke; Madea, Burkhard

    2012-01-01

    External post-mortem examination and first police assessments are often not consistent with subsequent autopsy results. This is all the more surprising the more serious the injuries found at autopsy are. Such discrepancies result especially from an absence of gross external injuries, as demonstrated by four examples. A 42-year-old, externally uninjured male was found at night time in a helpless condition in the street and died in spite of resuscitation. Autopsy showed severe polytrauma with traumatic brain injury and lesions of the thoracic and abdominal organs. A jump from the third floor was identified as the cause. At dawn, a twenty-year-old male was found dead on the grounds of the adjacent house. Because of the blood-covered head the police assumed a traumatic head injury by strike impact. The external examination revealed only abrasions on the forehead and to a minor extent on the back. At autopsy a midfacial fracture, a trauma of the thorax and abdomen and fractures of the spine and pelvis were detected. Afterwards investigations showed that the man, intoxicated by alcohol, had fallen from the flat roof of a multistoried house. A 77-year-old man was found unconscious on his terrace at day time; a cerebral seizure was assumed. He was transferred to emergency care where he died. The corpse was externally inconspicuous. Autopsy revealed serious traumatic injuries of the brain, thorax, abdomen and pelvis, which could be explained by a fall from the balcony. A 47-year-old homeless person without any external injuries was found dead in a barn. An alcohol intoxication was assumed. At autopsy severe injuries of the brain and cervical spine were found which were the result of a fall from a height of 5 m. On the basis of an external post-mortem examination alone gross blunt force trauma cannot be reliably excluded.

  15. Large-scale renewable energy project barriers: Environmental impact assessment streamlining efforts in Japan and the EU

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schumacher, Kim

    2017-01-01

    Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) procedures have been identified as a major barrier to renewable energy (RE) development with regards to large-scale projects (LS-RE). However EIA laws have also been neglected by many decision-makers who have been underestimating its impact on RE development and the stifling potential they possess. As a consequence, apart from acknowledging the shortcomings of the systems currently in place, few governments momentarily have concrete plans to reform their EIA laws. By looking at recent EIA streamlining efforts in two industrialized regions that underwent major transformations in their energy sectors, this paper attempts to assess how such reform efforts can act as a means to support the balancing of environmental protection and climate change mitigation with socio-economic challenges. Thereby this paper fills this intellectual void by identifying the strengths and weaknesses of the Japanese EIA law by contrasting it with the recently revised EIA Directive of the European Union (EU). This enables the identification of the regulatory provisions that impact RE development the most and the determination of how structured EIA law reforms would affect domestic RE project development. The main focus lies on the evaluation of regulatory streamlining efforts in the Japanese and EU contexts through the application of a mixed-methods approach, consisting of in-depth literary and legal reviews, followed by a comparative analysis and a series of semi-structured interviews. Highlighting several legal inconsistencies in combination with the views of EIA professionals, academics and law- and policymakers, allowed for a more comprehensive assessment of what streamlining elements of the reformed EU EIA Directive and the proposed Japanese EIA framework modifications could either promote or stifle further RE deployment. - Highlights: •Performs an in-depth review of EIA reforms in OECD territories •First paper to compare Japan and the European

  16. Millennial-scale faunal record reveals differential resilience of European large mammals to human impacts across the Holocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crees, Jennifer J; Carbone, Chris; Sommer, Robert S; Benecke, Norbert; Turvey, Samuel T

    2016-03-30

    The use of short-term indicators for understanding patterns and processes of biodiversity loss can mask longer-term faunal responses to human pressures. We use an extensive database of approximately 18,700 mammalian zooarchaeological records for the last 11,700 years across Europe to reconstruct spatio-temporal dynamics of Holocene range change for 15 large-bodied mammal species. European mammals experienced protracted, non-congruent range losses, with significant declines starting in some species approximately 3000 years ago and continuing to the present, and with the timing, duration and magnitude of declines varying individually between species. Some European mammals became globally extinct during the Holocene, whereas others experienced limited or no significant range change. These findings demonstrate the relatively early onset of prehistoric human impacts on postglacial biodiversity, and mirror species-specific patterns of mammalian extinction during the Late Pleistocene. Herbivores experienced significantly greater declines than carnivores, revealing an important historical extinction filter that informs our understanding of relative resilience and vulnerability to human pressures for different taxa. We highlight the importance of large-scale, long-term datasets for understanding complex protracted extinction processes, although the dynamic pattern of progressive faunal depletion of European mammal assemblages across the Holocene challenges easy identification of 'static' past baselines to inform current-day environmental management and restoration. © 2016 The Author(s).

  17. Failure Impact Assessment for Large-Scale Landslides Located Near Human Settlement: Case Study in Southern Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chien Chung

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In 2009, Typhoon Morakot caused over 680 deaths and more than 20,000 landslides in Taiwan. From 2010 to 2015, the Central Geological Survey of the Ministry of Economic Affairs identified 1047 potential large-scale landslides in Taiwan, of which 103 may have affected human settlements. This paper presents an analytical procedure that can be applied to assess the possible impact of a landslide collapse on nearby settlements. In this paper, existing technologies, including interpretation of remote sensing images, hydrogeological investigation, and numerical analysis, are integrated to evaluate potential failure scenarios and the landslide scale of a specific case: the Xinzhuang landslide. GeoStudio and RAMMS analysis modes and hazard classification produced the following results: (1 evaluation of the failure mechanisms and the influence zones of large-scale landslides; (2 assessment of the migration and accumulation of the landslide mass after failure; and (3 a landslide hazard and evacuation map. The results of the case study show that this analytical procedure can quantitatively estimate potential threats to human settlements. Furthermore, it can be applied to other villages and used as a reference in disaster prevention and evacuation planning.

  18. Impacts of forest changes on hydrology: a case study of large watersheds in the upper reach of Yangtze River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, X.; Liu, S.; Wei, X.

    2012-05-01

    Quantifying the effects of forest changes on hydrology in large watersheds is important for designing forest or land management and adaptation strategies for watershed ecosystem sustainability. Minjiang River watershed located in the upper reach of the Yangtze River Basin plays a strategic role in environmental protection and economic and social wellbeing for both the watershed and the entire Yangtze Basin. The watershed lies in the transition zone from Sichuan Basin to Qinghai-Tibet Plateau with a size of 24 000 km2. Due to its strategic significance, severe historic deforestation and high sensitivity to climate change, the watershed has long been one of the highest priority watersheds in China for scientific research and resource management. The purpose of this review paper is to provide a state-of-the-art summary on what we have learned from several recently-completed research programs (one of them known as "973 of the China National Major Fundamental Science" with funding of 3.5 million USD in 2002 to 2008). This summary paper focused on how land cover or forest change affected hydrology at both forest stand and watershed scales in this large watershed. Inclusion of two different spatial scales is useful because the results from a small spatial scale (e.g. forest stand level) can help interpret the findings at a large spatial scale. Our review suggests that historic forest harvesting or land cover change has caused significant water increase due to reduction of forest canopy interception and evapotranspiration caused by removal of forest vegetation at both spatial scales. The impact magnitudes caused by forest harvesting indicate that the hydrological effects of forest or land cover changes can be as important as those caused by climate change, while the opposite impact directions suggest their offsetting effects on water yields in the Minjiang River watershed. In addition, different types of forests have different magnitudes of ET with old-growth natural

  19. Computer simulations of large asteroid impacts into oceanic and continental sites--preliminary results on atmospheric, cratering and ejecta dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roddy, D.J.; Schuster, S.H.; Rosenblatt, M.; Grant, L.B.; Hassig, P.J.; Kreyenhagen, K.N.

    1987-01-01

    Computer simulations have been completed that describe passage of a 10-km-diameter asteroid through the Earth's atmosphere and the subsequent cratering and ejecta dynamics caused by impact of the asteroid into both oceanic and continental sites. The asteroid was modeled as a spherical body moving vertically at 20 km/s with a kinetic energy of 2.6 ?? 1030 ergs (6.2 ?? 107 Mt ). Detailed material modeling of the asteroid, ocean, crustal units, sedimentary unit, and mantle included effects of strength and fracturing, generic asteroid and rock properties, porosity, saturation, lithostatic stresses, and geothermal contributions, each selected to simulate impact and geologic conditions that were as realistic as possible. Calculation of the passage of the asteroid through a U.S. Standard Atmosphere showed development of a strong bow shock wave followed by a highly shock compressed and heated air mass. Rapid expansion of this shocked air created a large low-density region that also expanded away from the impact area. Shock temperatures in air reached ???20,000 K near the surface of the uplifting crater rim and were as high as ???2000 K at more than 30 km range and 10 km altitude. Calculations to 30 s showed that the shock fronts in the air and in most of the expanding shocked air mass preceded the formation of the crater, ejecta, and rim uplift and did not interact with them. As cratering developed, uplifted rim and target material were ejected into the very low density, shock-heated air immediately above the forming crater, and complex interactions could be expected. Calculations of the impact events showed equally dramatic effects on the oceanic and continental targets through an interval of 120 s. Despite geologic differences in the targets, both cratering events developed comparable dynamic flow fields and by ???29 s had formed similar-sized transient craters ???39 km deep and ???62 km across. Transient-rim uplift of ocean and crust reached a maximum altitude of nearly

  20. The impact of large structural brain changes in chronic stroke patients on the electric field caused by transcranial brain stimulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sena Minjoli

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS and transcranial direct current stimulation (TDCS are two types of non-invasive transcranial brain stimulation (TBS. They are useful tools for stroke research and may be potential adjunct therapies for functional recovery. However, stroke often causes large cerebral lesions, which are commonly accompanied by a secondary enlargement of the ventricles and atrophy. These structural alterations substantially change the conductivity distribution inside the head, which may have potentially important consequences for both brain stimulation methods. We therefore aimed to characterize the impact of these changes on the spatial distribution of the electric field generated by both TBS methods. In addition to confirming the safety of TBS in the presence of large stroke-related structural changes, our aim was to clarify whether targeted stimulation is still possible. Realistic head models containing large cortical and subcortical stroke lesions in the right parietal cortex were created using MR images of two patients. For TMS, the electric field of a double coil was simulated using the finite-element method. Systematic variations of the coil position relative to the lesion were tested. For TDCS, the finite-element method was used to simulate a standard approach with two electrode pads, and the position of one electrode was systematically varied. For both TMS and TDCS, the lesion caused electric field “hot spots” in the cortex. However, these maxima were not substantially stronger than those seen in a healthy control. The electric field pattern induced by TMS was not substantially changed by the lesions. However, the average field strength generated by TDCS was substantially decreased. This effect occurred for both head models and even when both electrodes were distant to the lesion, caused by increased current shunting through the lesion and enlarged ventricles. Judging from the similar peak field strengths compared

  1. The impact of large structural brain changes in chronic stroke patients on the electric field caused by transcranial brain stimulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minjoli, Sena; Saturnino, Guilherme B; Blicher, Jakob Udby; Stagg, Charlotte J; Siebner, Hartwig R; Antunes, André; Thielscher, Axel

    2017-01-01

    Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) and transcranial direct current stimulation (TDCS) are two types of non-invasive transcranial brain stimulation (TBS). They are useful tools for stroke research and may be potential adjunct therapies for functional recovery. However, stroke often causes large cerebral lesions, which are commonly accompanied by a secondary enlargement of the ventricles and atrophy. These structural alterations substantially change the conductivity distribution inside the head, which may have potentially important consequences for both brain stimulation methods. We therefore aimed to characterize the impact of these changes on the spatial distribution of the electric field generated by both TBS methods. In addition to confirming the safety of TBS in the presence of large stroke-related structural changes, our aim was to clarify whether targeted stimulation is still possible. Realistic head models containing large cortical and subcortical stroke lesions in the right parietal cortex were created using MR images of two patients. For TMS, the electric field of a double coil was simulated using the finite-element method. Systematic variations of the coil position relative to the lesion were tested. For TDCS, the finite-element method was used to simulate a standard approach with two electrode pads, and the position of one electrode was systematically varied. For both TMS and TDCS, the lesion caused electric field "hot spots" in the cortex. However, these maxima were not substantially stronger than those seen in a healthy control. The electric field pattern induced by TMS was not substantially changed by the lesions. However, the average field strength generated by TDCS was substantially decreased. This effect occurred for both head models and even when both electrodes were distant to the lesion, caused by increased current shunting through the lesion and enlarged ventricles. Judging from the similar peak field strengths compared to the healthy

  2. What is a surprise earthquake? The example of the 2002, San Giuliano (Italy event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mucciarelli

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available Both in scientific literature and in the mass media, some earthquakes are defined as «surprise earthquakes». Based on his own judgment, probably any geologist, seismologist or engineer may have his own list of past «surprise earthquakes». This paper tries to quantify the underlying individual perception that may lead a scientist to apply such a definition to a seismic event. The meaning is different, depending on the disciplinary approach. For geologists, the Italian database of seismogenic sources is still too incomplete to allow for a quantitative estimate of the subjective degree of belief. For seismologists, quantification is possible defining the distance between an earthquake and its closest previous neighbor. Finally, for engineers, the San Giuliano quake could not be considered a surprise, since probabilistic site hazard estimates reveal that the change before and after the earthquake is just 4%.

  3. Conference of “Uncertainty and Surprise: Questions on Working with the Unexpected and Unknowable”

    CERN Document Server

    McDaniel, Reuben R; Uncertainty and Surprise in Complex Systems : Questions on Working with the Unexpected

    2005-01-01

    Complexity science has been a source of new insight in physical and social systems and has demonstrated that unpredictability and surprise are fundamental aspects of the world around us. This book is the outcome of a discussion meeting of leading scholars and critical thinkers with expertise in complex systems sciences and leaders from a variety of organizations sponsored by the Prigogine Center at The University of Texas at Austin and the Plexus Institute to explore strategies for understanding uncertainty and surprise. Besides distributions to the conference it includes a key digest by the editors as well as a commentary by the late nobel laureat Ilya Prigogine, "Surprises in half of a century". The book is intended for researchers and scientists in complexity science as well as for a broad interdisciplinary audience of both practitioners and scholars. It will well serve those interested in the research issues and in the application of complexity science to physical and social systems.

  4. The economic impact of GERD and PUD: examination of direct and indirect costs using a large integrated employer claims database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joish, Vijay N; Donaldson, Gary; Stockdale, William; Oderda, Gary M; Crawley, Joseph; Sasane, Rahul; Joshua-Gotlib, Sandra; Brixner, Diana I

    2005-04-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the relationship of work loss associated with gastro- the relationship of work loss associated with gastro- the relationship of work loss associated with gastro-esophageal reflux disease (GERD) and peptic ulcer disease (GERD) and peptic ulcer disease (PUD) in a large population of employed individuals in the United States (US) and quantify the individuals in the United States (US) and quantify the economic impact of these diseases to the employer. A proprietary database that contained work place absence, disability and workers' compensation data in addition to prescription drug and medical claims was used to answer the objectives. Employees with a medical claim with an ICD-9 code for GERD or PUD were identified from 1 January 1997 to 31 December 2000. A cohort of controls was identified for the same time period using the method of frequency matching on age, gender, industry type, occupational status, and employment status. Work absence rates and health care costs were compared between the groups after adjusting for demo graphic, and employment differences using analysis of covariance models. There were significantly lower (p rate of adjusted all-cause absenteeism and sickness-related absenteeism were observed between the disease groups versus the controls. In particular, controls had an average of 1.2 to 1.6 days and 0.4 to 0.6 lower all-cause and sickness-related absenteeism compared to the disease groups. The incremental economic impact projected to a hypothetical employed population was estimated to be $3441 for GERD, $1374 for PUD, and $4803 for GERD + PUD per employee per year compared to employees without these diseases. Direct medical cost and work absence in employees with GERD, PUD and GERD + PUD represent a significant burden to employees and employers.

  5. Impacts of large-scale circulation on urban ambient concentrations of gaseous elemental mercury in New York, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Mao

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The impact of large-scale circulation on urban gaseous elemental mercury (GEM was investigated through analysis of 2008–2015 measurement data from an urban site in New York City (NYC, New York, USA. Distinct annual cycles were observed in 2009–2010 with mixing ratios in warm seasons (i.e., spring–summer 10–20 ppqv ( ∼  10–25 % higher than in cool seasons (i.e., fall–winter. This annual cycle was disrupted in 2011 by an anomalously strong influence of the US East Coast trough in that warm season and was reproduced in 2014 associated with a particularly strong Bermuda High. The US East Coast trough axis index (TAI and intensity index (TII were used to characterize the effect of the US East Coast trough on NYC GEM, especially in winter and summer. The intensity and position of the Bermuda High appeared to have a significant impact on GEM in warm seasons. Regional influence on NYC GEM was supported by the GEM–carbon monoxide (CO correlation with r of 0.17–0.69 (p ∼  0 in most seasons. Simulated regional and local anthropogenic contributions to wintertime NYC anthropogenically induced GEM concentrations were averaged at  ∼  75 % and 25 %, with interannual variation ranging over 67 %–83 % and 17 %–33 %, respectively. Results from this study suggest the possibility that the increasingly strong Bermuda High over the past decades could dominate over anthropogenic mercury emission control in affecting ambient concentrations of mercury via regional buildup and possibly enhancing natural and legacy emissions.

  6. Estimating the potential impacts of large mesopredators on benthic resources: integrative assessment of spotted eagle ray foraging ecology in Bermuda.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew J Ajemian

    Full Text Available Declines of large sharks and subsequent release of elasmobranch mesopredators (smaller sharks and rays may pose problems for marine fisheries management as some mesopredators consume exploitable shellfish species. The spotted eagle ray (Aetobatus narinari is the most abundant inshore elasmobranch in subtropical Bermuda, but its predatory role remains unexamined despite suspected abundance increases and its hypothesized specialization for mollusks. We utilized a combination of acoustic telemetry, benthic invertebrate sampling, gut content analysis and manipulative experiments to assess the impact of spotted eagle rays on Bermudian shellfish resources. Residency and distribution of adult spotted eagle rays was monitored over two consecutive summers in Harrington Sound (HS, an enclosed inshore lagoon that has historically supported multiple recreational and commercial shellfish species. Telemetered rays exhibited variable fidelity (depending on sex to HS, though generally selected regions that supported relatively high densities of potential mollusk prey. Gut content analysis from rays collected in HS revealed a diet of mainly bivalves and a few gastropods, with calico clam (Macrocallista maculata representing the most important prey item. Manipulative field and mesocosm experiments with calico clams suggested that rays selected prey patches based on density, though there was no evidence of rays depleting clam patches to extirpation. Overall, spotted eagle rays had modest impacts on local shellfish populations at current population levels, suggesting a reduced role in transmitting cascading effects from apex predator loss. However, due to the strong degree of coupling between rays and multiple protected mollusks in HS, ecosystem-based management that accounts for ray predation should be adopted.

  7. Salience and attention in surprisal-based accounts of language processing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandra eZarcone

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The notion of salience has been singled out as the explanatory factor for a diverse range oflinguistic phenomena. In particular, perceptual salience (e.g. visual salience of objects in the world,acoustic prominence of linguistic sounds and semantic-pragmatic salience (e.g. prominence ofrecently mentioned or topical referents have been shown to influence language comprehensionand production. A different line of research has sought to account for behavioral correlates ofcognitive load during comprehension as well as for certain patterns in language usage usinginformation-theoretic notions, such as surprisal. Surprisal and salience both affect languageprocessing at different levels, but the relationship between the two has not been adequatelyelucidated, and the question of whether salience can be reduced to surprisal / predictability isstill open. Our review identifies two main challenges in addressing this question: terminologicalinconsistency and lack of integration between high and low levels of representations in salience-based accounts and surprisal-based accounts. We capitalise upon work in visual cognition inorder to orient ourselves in surveying the different facets of the notion of salience in linguisticsand their relation with models of surprisal. We find that work on salience highlights aspects oflinguistic communication that models of surprisal tend to overlook, namely the role of attentionand relevance to current goals, and we argue that the Predictive Coding framework provides aunified view which can account for the role played by attention and predictability at different levelsof processing and which can clarify the interplay between low and high levels of processes andbetween predictability-driven expectation and attention-driven focus.

  8. Salience and Attention in Surprisal-Based Accounts of Language Processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarcone, Alessandra; van Schijndel, Marten; Vogels, Jorrig; Demberg, Vera

    2016-01-01

    The notion of salience has been singled out as the explanatory factor for a diverse range of linguistic phenomena. In particular, perceptual salience (e.g., visual salience of objects in the world, acoustic prominence of linguistic sounds) and semantic-pragmatic salience (e.g., prominence of recently mentioned or topical referents) have been shown to influence language comprehension and production. A different line of research has sought to account for behavioral correlates of cognitive load during comprehension as well as for certain patterns in language usage using information-theoretic notions, such as surprisal. Surprisal and salience both affect language processing at different levels, but the relationship between the two has not been adequately elucidated, and the question of whether salience can be reduced to surprisal / predictability is still open. Our review identifies two main challenges in addressing this question: terminological inconsistency and lack of integration between high and low levels of representations in salience-based accounts and surprisal-based accounts. We capitalize upon work in visual cognition in order to orient ourselves in surveying the different facets of the notion of salience in linguistics and their relation with models of surprisal. We find that work on salience highlights aspects of linguistic communication that models of surprisal tend to overlook, namely the role of attention and relevance to current goals, and we argue that the Predictive Coding framework provides a unified view which can account for the role played by attention and predictability at different levels of processing and which can clarify the interplay between low and high levels of processes and between predictability-driven expectation and attention-driven focus.

  9. Salience and Attention in Surprisal-Based Accounts of Language Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarcone, Alessandra; van Schijndel, Marten; Vogels, Jorrig; Demberg, Vera

    2016-01-01

    The notion of salience has been singled out as the explanatory factor for a diverse range of linguistic phenomena. In particular, perceptual salience (e.g., visual salience of objects in the world, acoustic prominence of linguistic sounds) and semantic-pragmatic salience (e.g., prominence of recently mentioned or topical referents) have been shown to influence language comprehension and production. A different line of research has sought to account for behavioral correlates of cognitive load during comprehension as well as for certain patterns in language usage using information-theoretic notions, such as surprisal. Surprisal and salience both affect language processing at different levels, but the relationship between the two has not been adequately elucidated, and the question of whether salience can be reduced to surprisal / predictability is still open. Our review identifies two main challenges in addressing this question: terminological inconsistency and lack of integration between high and low levels of representations in salience-based accounts and surprisal-based accounts. We capitalize upon work in visual cognition in order to orient ourselves in surveying the different facets of the notion of salience in linguistics and their relation with models of surprisal. We find that work on salience highlights aspects of linguistic communication that models of surprisal tend to overlook, namely the role of attention and relevance to current goals, and we argue that the Predictive Coding framework provides a unified view which can account for the role played by attention and predictability at different levels of processing and which can clarify the interplay between low and high levels of processes and between predictability-driven expectation and attention-driven focus. PMID:27375525

  10. Management of social and economic impacts associated with the construction of large-scale projects: experiences from the Western coal development communities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, M.R.; Curry, M.G.

    1977-06-01

    The construction and operation of large-scale energy or resource development projects are accompanied by environmental, social, and economic changes or impacts. Impact assessment is the key tool used to determine which impact areas will most severely affect the community and will thus need to be managed. Impact management, only recently recognized as part of the assessment process, includes public and private actions to ameliorate impacts. The use of available impact management strategies can affect the outcome or change in the social and economic environment in a community. Therefore, an inventory of available strategies and the capabilities of local governments to use such strategies should be an integral part of any social and economic impact assessment. This provides a link between impact assessment and management. This report provides an introductory analysis to some of the more complex issues raised by social and economic impact management, with experiences cited from Western coal-development communities. Following an introduction, the paper is divided into sections corresponding to the major social and economic impacts experienced by rural communities surrounding an energy development. Each section contains a brief introductory description of the types of problems typically associated with the impact sector, and a discussion of management strategies either proposed or implemented for the impact. The management strategies are presented in tabular form, indicating the level of government responsible for implementation. 10 tables, 72 references. (MCW)

  11. Regional climate modeling: Should one attempt improving on the large scales? Lateral boundary condition scheme: Any impact?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veljovic, Katarina; Rajkovic, Borivoj [Belgrade Univ. (RS). Inst. of Meteorology; Fennessy, Michael J.; Altshuler, Eric L. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Mesinger, Fedor [Maryland Univ., College Park (United States). Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center; Serbian Academy of Science and Arts, Belgrade (RS)

    2010-06-15

    equitable threat scores (Mesinger 2008) and frequency bias scores for wind speeds greater than a chosen wind speed threshold, with the ECMWF analyses used as truth. We also calculate a traditional RMS difference between the forecast and analyzed winds at this same level. Our results show the Eta RCM skill in forecasting large scales with no interior nudging to be just about the same as and usually even slightly higher than that of the driver model. As to the LBC impact, no disadvantage compared to relaxation was seen from using the Eta scheme, in spite of its requiring information from the outermost RCM boundary only. (orig.)

  12. Risk, surprises and black swans fundamental ideas and concepts in risk assessment and risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2014-01-01

    Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on.Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as 'Black Swans'. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them.

  13. Climate change and large-scale land acquisitions in Africa: Quantifying the future impact on acquired water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiarelli, Davide Danilo; Davis, Kyle Frankel; Rulli, Maria Cristina; D'Odorico, Paolo

    2016-08-01

    Pressure on agricultural land has markedly increased since the start of the century, driven by demographic growth, changes in diet, increasing biofuel demand, and globalization. To better ensure access to adequate land and water resources, many investors and countries began leasing large areas of agricultural land in the global South, a phenomenon often termed "large-scale land acquisition" (LSLA). To date, this global land rush has resulted in the appropriation of 41million hectares and about 490 km3 of freshwater resources, affecting rural livelihoods and local environments. It remains unclear to what extent land and water acquisitions contribute to the emergence of water-stress conditions in acquired areas, and how these demands for water may be impacted by climate change. Here we analyze 18 African countries - 20 Mha (or 80%) of LSLA for the continent - and estimate that under present climate 210 km3 year-1of water would be appropriated if all acquired areas were actively under production. We also find that consumptive use of irrigation water is disproportionately contributed by water-intensive biofuel crops. Using the IPCCA1B scenario, we find only small changes in green (-1.6%) and blue (+2.0%) water demand in targeted areas. With a 3 °C temperature increase, crop yields are expected to decrease up to 20% with a consequent increase in the water footprint. When the effect of increasing atmospheric CO2concentrations is accounted for, crop yields increase by as much as 40% with a decrease in water footprint up to 29%. The relative importance of CO2 fertilization and warming will therefore determine water appropriations and changes in water footprint under climate change scenarios.

  14. Adapting to large-scale changes in Advanced Placement Biology, Chemistry, and Physics: the impact of online teacher communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frumin, Kim; Dede, Chris; Fischer, Christian; Foster, Brandon; Lawrenz, Frances; Eisenkraft, Arthur; Fishman, Barry; Jurist Levy, Abigail; McCoy, Ayana

    2018-03-01

    Over the past decade, the field of teacher professional learning has coalesced around core characteristics of high quality professional development experiences (e.g. Borko, Jacobs, & Koellner, 2010. Contemporary approaches to teacher professional development. In P. L. Peterson, E. Baker, & B. McGaw (Eds.), International encyclopedia of education (Vol. 7, pp. 548-556). Oxford: Elsevier.; Darling-Hammond, Hyler, & Gardner, 2017. Effective teacher professional development. Palo Alto, CA: Learning Policy Institute). Many countries have found these advances of great interest because of a desire to build teacher capacity in science education and across the full curriculum. This paper continues this progress by examining the role and impact of an online professional development community within the top-down, large-scale curriculum and assessment revision of Advanced Placement (AP) Biology, Chemistry, and Physics. This paper is part of a five-year, longitudinal, U.S. National Science Foundation-funded project to study the relative effectiveness of various types of professional development in enabling teachers to adapt to the revised AP course goals and exams. Of the many forms of professional development our research has examined, preliminary analyses indicated that participation in the College Board's online AP Teacher Community (APTC) - where teachers can discuss teaching strategies, share resources, and connect with each other - had positive, direct, and statistically significant association with teacher self-reported shifts in practice and with gains in student AP scores (Fishman et al., 2014). This study explored how usage of the online APTC might be useful to teachers and examined a more robust estimate of these effects. Findings from the experience of AP teachers may be valuable in supporting other large-scale curriculum changes, such as the U.S. Next Generation Science Standards or Common Core Standards, as well as parallel curricular shifts in other countries.

  15. Impacts of large-scale introduction of hydrogen in the road transport sector on urban air pollution and human exposure in Copenhagen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, S.S.; Ketzel, M.; Brandt, J.; Frohn, L.M.; Winther, M.; Nielsen, O.K. (Aarhus Univ.. National Environmental Research Institute, Roskilde (Denmark)); Joergensen, K.; Karlsson, K. (Technical Univ. of Denmark, Risoe National Lab. for Sustainable Energy. Dept. of System Analysis, Roskilde (Denmark))

    2011-07-15

    The aim of the project 'Environmental and Health Impact Assessment of Scenarios for Renewable Energy Systems with Hydrogen' (HYSCENE) is to improve modelling of the environmental impacts and related socio-cultural and welfare economic impacts of a proposed hydrogen/renewable energy system with focus on large-scale introduction of hydrogen as energy carrier in the road transport sector (http://hyscene.dmu.dk). This extended abstract will focus on the impacts on urban air pollution and human exposure. (Author)

  16. Large-scale experiments for the vulnerability analysis of buildings impacted and intruded by fluviatile torrential hazard processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sturm, Michael; Gems, Bernhard; Fuchs, Sven; Mazzorana, Bruno; Papathoma-Köhle, Maria; Aufleger, Markus

    2016-04-01

    In European mountain regions, losses due to torrential hazards are still considerable high despite the ongoing debate on an overall increasing or decreasing trend. Recent events in Austria severely revealed that due to technical and economic reasons, an overall protection of settlements in the alpine environment against torrential hazards is not feasible. On the side of the hazard process, events with unpredictable intensities may represent overload scenarios for existent protection structures in the torrent catchments. They bear a particular risk of significant losses in the living space. Although the importance of vulnerability is widely recognised, there is still a research gap concerning its assessment. Currently, potential losses at buildings due to torrential hazards and their comparison with reinstatement costs are determined by the use of empirical functions. Hence, relations of process intensities and the extent of losses, gathered by the analysis of historic hazard events and the information of object-specific restoration values, are used. This approach does not represent a physics-based and integral concept since relevant and often crucial processes, as the intrusion of the fluid-sediment-mixture into elements at risk, are not considered. Based on these findings, our work is targeted at extending these findings and models of present risk research in the context of an integral, more physics-based vulnerability analysis concept. Fluviatile torrential hazard processes and their impacts on the building envelope are experimentally modelled. Material intrusion processes are thereby explicitly considered. Dynamic impacts are gathered quantitatively and spatially distributed by the use of a large set of force transducers. The experimental tests are accomplished with artificial, vertical and skewed plates, including also openings for material intrusion. Further, the impacts on specific buildings within the test site of the work, the fan apex of the Schnannerbach

  17. Molecular dynamics simulations with electronic stopping can reproduce experimental sputtering yields of metals impacted by large cluster ions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Jiting; Zhou, Wei; Feng, Qijie; Zheng, Jian

    2018-03-01

    An unsolved problem in research of sputtering from metals induced by energetic large cluster ions is that molecular dynamics (MD) simulations often produce sputtering yields much higher than experimental results. Different from the previous simulations considering only elastic atomic interactions (nuclear stopping), here we incorporate inelastic electrons-atoms interactions (electronic stopping, ES) into MD simulations using a friction model. In this way we have simulated continuous 45° impacts of 10-20 keV C60 on a Ag(111) surface, and found that the calculated sputtering yields can be very close to the experimental results when the model parameter is appropriately assigned. Conversely, when we ignore the effect of ES, the yields are much higher, just like the previous studies. We further expand our research to the sputtering of Au induced by continuous keV C60 or Ar100 bombardments, and obtain quite similar results. Our study indicates that the gap between the experimental and the simulated sputtering yields is probably induced by the ignorance of ES in the simulations, and that a careful treatment of this issue is important for simulations of cluster-ion-induced sputtering, especially for those aiming to compare with experiments.

  18. Thermomechanical assessment of the effects of a jaw-beam angle during beam impact on Large Hadron Collider collimators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cauchi, Marija; Assmann, R. W.; Bertarelli, A.; Carra, F.; Lari, L.; Rossi, A.; Mollicone, P.; Sammut, N.

    2015-02-01

    The correct functioning of a collimation system is crucial to safely and successfully operate high-energy particle accelerators, such as the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). However, the requirements to handle high-intensity beams can be demanding, and accident scenarios must be well studied in order to assess if the collimator design is robust against possible error scenarios. One of the catastrophic, though not very probable, accident scenarios identified within the LHC is an asynchronous beam dump. In this case, one (or more) of the 15 precharged kicker circuits fires out of time with the abort gap, spraying beam pulses onto LHC machine elements before the machine protection system can fire the remaining kicker circuits and bring the beam to the dump. If a proton bunch directly hits a collimator during such an event, severe beam-induced damage such as magnet quenches and other equipment damage might result, with consequent downtime for the machine. This study investigates a number of newly defined jaw error cases, which include angular misalignment errors of the collimator jaw. A numerical finite element method approach is presented in order to precisely evaluate the thermomechanical response of tertiary collimators to beam impact. We identify the most critical and interesting cases, and show that a tilt of the jaw can actually mitigate the effect of an asynchronous dump on the collimators. Relevant collimator damage limits are taken into account, with the aim to identify optimal operational conditions for the LHC.

  19. Thermomechanical assessment of the effects of a jaw-beam angle during beam impact on Large Hadron Collider collimators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marija Cauchi

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The correct functioning of a collimation system is crucial to safely and successfully operate high-energy particle accelerators, such as the Large Hadron Collider (LHC. However, the requirements to handle high-intensity beams can be demanding, and accident scenarios must be well studied in order to assess if the collimator design is robust against possible error scenarios. One of the catastrophic, though not very probable, accident scenarios identified within the LHC is an asynchronous beam dump. In this case, one (or more of the 15 precharged kicker circuits fires out of time with the abort gap, spraying beam pulses onto LHC machine elements before the machine protection system can fire the remaining kicker circuits and bring the beam to the dump. If a proton bunch directly hits a collimator during such an event, severe beam-induced damage such as magnet quenches and other equipment damage might result, with consequent downtime for the machine. This study investigates a number of newly defined jaw error cases, which include angular misalignment errors of the collimator jaw. A numerical finite element method approach is presented in order to precisely evaluate the thermomechanical response of tertiary collimators to beam impact. We identify the most critical and interesting cases, and show that a tilt of the jaw can actually mitigate the effect of an asynchronous dump on the collimators. Relevant collimator damage limits are taken into account, with the aim to identify optimal operational conditions for the LHC.

  20. Potential environmental impact of tidal energy extraction in the Pentland Firth at large spatial scales: results of a biogeochemical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Molen, Johan; Ruardij, Piet; Greenwood, Naomi

    2016-05-01

    A model study was carried out of the potential large-scale (> 100 km) effects of marine renewable tidal energy generation in the Pentland Firth, using the 3-D hydrodynamics-biogeochemistry model GETM-ERSEM-BFM. A realistic 800 MW scenario and a high-impact scenario with massive expansion of tidal energy extraction to 8 GW scenario were considered. The realistic 800 MW scenario suggested minor effects on the tides, and undetectable effects on the biogeochemistry. The massive-expansion 8 GW scenario suggested effects would be observed over hundreds of kilometres away with changes of up to 10 % in tidal and ecosystem variables, in particular in a broad area in the vicinity of the Wash. There, waters became less turbid, and primary production increased with associated increases in faunal ecosystem variables. Moreover, a one-off increase in carbon storage in the sea bed was detected. Although these first results suggest positive environmental effects, further investigation is recommended of (i) the residual circulation in the vicinity of the Pentland Firth and effects on larval dispersal using a higher-resolution model and (ii) ecosystem effects with (future) state-of-the-art models if energy extraction substantially beyond 1 GW is planned.

  1. Skin cancer has a large impact on our public hospitals but prevention programs continue to demonstrate strong economic credentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Sophy T F; Carter, Rob; Heward, Sue; Sinclair, Craig

    2017-08-01

    While skin cancer is still the most common cancer in Australia, important information gaps remain. This paper addresses two gaps: i) the cost impact on public hospitals; and ii) an up-to-date assessment of economic credentials for prevention. A prevalence-based cost approach was undertaken in public hospitals in Victoria. Costs were estimated for inpatient admissions, using State service statistics, and outpatient services based on attendance at three hospitals in 2012-13. Cost-effectiveness for prevention was estimated from 'observed vs expected' analysis, together with program expenditure data. Combining inpatient and outpatient costs, total annual costs for Victoria were $48 million to $56 million. The SunSmart program is estimated to have prevented more than 43,000 skin cancers between 1988 and 2010, a net cost saving of $92 million. Skin cancer treatment in public hospitals ($9.20∼$10.39 per head/year) was 30-times current public funding in skin cancer prevention ($0.37 per head/year). At about $50 million per year for hospitals in Victoria alone, the cost burden of a largely preventable disease is substantial. Skin cancer prevention remains highly cost-effective, yet underfunded. Implications for public health: Increased funding for skin cancer prevention must be kept high on the public health agenda. Hospitals would also benefit from being able to redirect resources to non-preventable conditions. © 2017 The Authors.

  2. Impact of the 7 TeV/c Large Hadron Collider proton beam on a copper target

    CERN Document Server

    Tahir, N A; Goddard, B; Hoffmann, Dieter H H; Kain, V; Lomonosov, I V; Piriz, A R; Schmidt, R; Shutov, A; Temporal, M

    2005-01-01

    The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) will allow for collision between two 7 TeV/c proton beams, each comprising 2808 bunches with 1.1*10/sup 11 / protons per bunch, traveling in opposite direction. The bunch length is 0.5 ns and two neighboring bunches are separated by 25 ns so that the duration of the entire beam is about 89 mu s. The beam power profile in the transverse direction is a Gaussian with a standard deviation of 0.2 mm. The energy stored in each beam is about 350 MJ that is sufficient to melt 500 kg of copper. In case of a failure in the machine protection systems, the entire beam could impact directly onto an accelerator equipment. A first estimate of the scale of damage resulting from such a failure has been assessed for a solid copper target hit by the beam by carrying out three- dimensional energy deposition calculations and two-dimensional numerical simulations of the hydrodynamic and thermodynamic response of the target. This work has shown that the penetration depth of the LHC protons will be be...

  3. Impact of high energy high intensity proton beams on targets: Case studies for Super Proton Synchrotron and Large Hadron Collider

    CERN Document Server

    Tahir, N A; Shutov, A; Schmidt, R; Piriz, A R

    2012-01-01

    The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is designed to collide two proton beams with unprecedented particle energy of 7 TeV. Each beam comprises 2808 bunches and the separation between two neighboring bunches is 25 ns. The energy stored in each beam is 362 MJ, sufficient to melt 500 kg copper. Safety of operation is very important when working with such powerful beams. An accidental release of even a very small fraction of the beam energy can result in severe damage to the equipment. The machine protection system is essential to handle all types of possible accidental hazards; however, it is important to know about possible consequences of failures. One of the critical failure scenarios is when the entire beam is lost at a single point. In this paper we present detailed numerical simulations of the full impact of one LHC beam on a cylindrical solid carbon target. First, the energy deposition by the protons is calculated with the FLUKA code and this energy deposition is used in the BIG2 code to study the corresponding...

  4. Overview of transport and MHD stability study and impact of magnetic field topology in the Large Helical Device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ida, K.; Nagaoka, K.; Kasahara, H.; Yoshinuma, M.; Ohdachi, S.; Osakabe, M.; Kobayashi, M.; Sudo, S.; Yamada, H.; Takeiri, Y.; Mutoh, T.; Imagawa, S.; Mito, T.; Nagayama, Y.; Watanabe, K.Y.; Kaneko, O.; Komori, A.; Inagaki, S.; Evans, T.; Kamiya, Kensaku

    2014-10-01

    The progress of physics understanding and concurrent parameter extension since the last IAEA-FEC 2012 in the Large Helical Device is overviewed. High ion and electron temperature plasma (T i (0) ∼ T e (0) ∼ 6 keV) with simultaneous ion and electron internal transport barrier (ITB) is obtained by controlling recycling and heating deposition. Associated with the formation of a transport barrier, a sign flip of the non-diffusive term of impurity/momentum transport (residual stress and convection flow) is observed. The impact of the topology of 3-D magnetic fields (stochastic magnetic fields and magnetic islands) on heat momentum and particle/impurity transport and MHD stability is also discussed. In the steady state operation, a 48 min discharge with a line-averaged electron density of 1x10 19 m -3 and with high electron and ion temperatures (T i (0) ∼ T e (0) ∼ 2 keV) resulting in 3.36 GJ of input energy is achieved. (author)

  5. Large impacted upper ureteral calculi: A comparative study between retrograde ureterolithotripsy and percutaneous antegrade ureterolithotripsy in the modified lateral position.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moufid, Kamal; Abbaka, Najib; Touiti, Driss; Adermouch, Latifa; Amine, Mohamed; Lezrek, Mohammed

    2013-07-01

    The treatment for patients with large impacted proximal ureteral stone remains controversial, especially at institutions with limited resources. The aim of this study is to compare and to evaluate the outcome and complications of two main treatment procedures for impacted proximal ureteral calculi, retrograde ureterolithotripsy (URS), and percutaneous antegrade ureterolithotripsy (Perc-URS). Our inclusion criteria were solitary, radiopaque calculi, >15 mm in size in a functioning renal unit. Only those patients in whom the attempt at passing a guidewire or catheter beyond the calculus failed were included in this study. Between January 2007 and July 2011, a total of 52 patients (13 women and 39 men) with large impacted upper-ureteral calculi >15 mm and meeting the inclusion criteria were selected. Of these, Perc-URS was done in 22 patients (group 1) while retrograde ureteroscopy was performed in 30 patients (group 2). We analyzed operative time, incidence of complications during and after surgery, the number of postoperative recovery days, median total costs associated per patient per procedure, and the stone-free rate immediately after 5 days and after 1 month. Bivariate analysis used the Student t-test and the Mann-Whitney test to compare two means and Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests to compare two percentages. The significance level was set at 0.05. The mean age was 42.3 years (range 22-69). The mean stone sizes (mm) were 34 ± 1.2 and 29.3 ± 1.8 mm in group 1 and 2, respectively. In the Perc-URS group, 21 patients (95.45%) had complete calculus clearance through a single tract in one session of percutaneous surgery, whereas in the URS group, only 20 patients (66.7%) had complete stone clearance (P = 0.007). The mean operative time was higher in the Perc-URS group compared to group 2 (66.5 ± 21.7 vs. 52.13 ± 17.3 min, respectively; P = 0.013). Complications encountered in group 1 included transient postoperative fever (2 pts) and simple urine outflow (2

  6. The Most Distant Mature Galaxy Cluster - Young, but surprisingly grown-up

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-01

    Astronomers have used an armada of telescopes on the ground and in space, including the Very Large Telescope at ESO's Paranal Observatory in Chile to discover and measure the distance to the most remote mature cluster of galaxies yet found. Although this cluster is seen when the Universe was less than one quarter of its current age it looks surprisingly similar to galaxy clusters in the current Universe. "We have measured the distance to the most distant mature cluster of galaxies ever found", says the lead author of the study in which the observations from ESO's VLT have been used, Raphael Gobat (CEA, Paris). "The surprising thing is that when we look closely at this galaxy cluster it doesn't look young - many of the galaxies have settled down and don't resemble the usual star-forming galaxies seen in the early Universe." Clusters of galaxies are the largest structures in the Universe that are held together by gravity. Astronomers expect these clusters to grow through time and hence that massive clusters would be rare in the early Universe. Although even more distant clusters have been seen, they appear to be young clusters in the process of formation and are not settled mature systems. The international team of astronomers used the powerful VIMOS and FORS2 instruments on ESO's Very Large Telescope (VLT) to measure the distances to some of the blobs in a curious patch of very faint red objects first observed with the Spitzer space telescope. This grouping, named CL J1449+0856 [1], had all the hallmarks of being a very remote cluster of galaxies [2]. The results showed that we are indeed seeing a galaxy cluster as it was when the Universe was about three billion years old - less than one quarter of its current age [3]. Once the team knew the distance to this very rare object they looked carefully at the component galaxies using both the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope and ground-based telescopes, including the VLT. They found evidence suggesting that most of the

  7. Dealing with unexpected events on the flight deck : A conceptual model of startle and surprise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Landman, H.M.; Groen, E.L.; Paassen, M.M. van; Bronkhorst, A.W.; Mulder, M.

    2017-01-01

    Objective: A conceptual model is proposed in order to explain pilot performance in surprising and startling situations. Background: Today’s debate around loss of control following in-flight events and the implementation of upset prevention and recovery training has highlighted the importance of

  8. Bagpipes and Artichokes: Surprise as a Stimulus to Learning in the Elementary Music Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobi, Bonnie Schaffhauser

    2016-01-01

    Incorporating surprise into music instruction can stimulate student attention, curiosity, and interest. Novelty focuses attention in the reticular activating system, increasing the potential for brain memory storage. Elementary ages are ideal for introducing novel instruments, pieces, composers, or styles of music. Young children have fewer…

  9. The Educational Philosophies of Mordecai Kaplan and Michael Rosenak: Surprising Similarities and Illuminating Differences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schein, Jeffrey; Caplan, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The thoughts of Mordecai Kaplan and Michael Rosenak present surprising commonalities as well as illuminating differences. Similarities include the perception that Judaism and Jewish education are in crisis, the belief that Jewish peoplehood must include commitment to meaningful content, the need for teachers to teach from a position of…

  10. Models of Automation surprise : results of a field survey in aviation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Boer, Robert; Dekker, Sidney

    2017-01-01

    Automation surprises in aviation continue to be a significant safety concern and the community’s search for effective strategies to mitigate them are ongoing. The literature has offered two fundamentally divergent directions, based on different ideas about the nature of cognition and collaboration

  11. Decision-making under surprise and uncertainty: Arsenic contamination of water supplies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randhir, Timothy O.; Mozumder, Pallab; Halim, Nafisa

    2018-05-01

    With ignorance and potential surprise dominating decision making in water resources, a framework for dealing with such uncertainty is a critical need in hydrology. We operationalize the 'potential surprise' criterion proposed by Shackle, Vickers, and Katzner (SVK) to derive decision rules to manage water resources under uncertainty and ignorance. We apply this framework to managing water supply systems in Bangladesh that face severe, naturally occurring arsenic contamination. The uncertainty involved with arsenic in water supplies makes the application of conventional analysis of decision-making ineffective. Given the uncertainty and surprise involved in such cases, we find that optimal decisions tend to favor actions that avoid irreversible outcomes instead of conventional cost-effective actions. We observe that a diversification of the water supply system also emerges as a robust strategy to avert unintended outcomes of water contamination. Shallow wells had a slight higher optimal level (36%) compare to deep wells and surface treatment which had allocation levels of roughly 32% under each. The approach can be applied in a variety of other cases that involve decision making under uncertainty and surprise, a frequent situation in natural resources management.

  12. Surprising results: HIV testing and changes in contraceptive practices among young women in Malawi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sennott, Christie; Yeatman, Sara

    2015-01-01

    This study uses eight waves of data from the population-based Tsogolo la Thanzi study (2009–2011) in rural Malawi to examine changes in young women’s contraceptive practices, including the use of condoms, non-barrier contraceptive methods, and abstinence, following positive and negative HIV tests. The analysis factors in women’s prior perceptions of their HIV status that may already be shaping their behaviour and separates surprise HIV test results from those that merely confirm what was already believed. Fixed effects logistic regression models show that HIV testing frequently affects the contraceptive practices of young Malawian women, particularly when the test yields an unexpected result. Specifically, women who are surprised to test HIV positive increase their condom use and are more likely to use condoms consistently. Following an HIV negative test (whether a surprise or expected), women increase their use of condoms and decrease their use of non-barrier contraceptives; the latter may be due to an increase in abstinence following a surprise negative result. Changes in condom use following HIV testing are robust to the inclusion of potential explanatory mechanisms including fertility preferences, relationship status, and the perception that a partner is HIV positive. The results demonstrate that both positive and negative tests can influence women’s sexual and reproductive behaviours, and emphasise the importance of conceptualizing of HIV testing as offering new information only insofar as results deviate from prior perceptions of HIV status. PMID:26160156

  13. Surprise, Memory, and Retrospective Judgment Making: Testing Cognitive Reconstruction Theories of the Hindsight Bias Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ash, Ivan K.

    2009-01-01

    Hindsight bias has been shown to be a pervasive and potentially harmful decision-making bias. A review of 4 competing cognitive reconstruction theories of hindsight bias revealed conflicting predictions about the role and effect of expectation or surprise in retrospective judgment formation. Two experiments tested these predictions examining the…

  14. Distribution of Large Visible and Buried Impact Basins on Mars: Comparison with Free-Air Gravity, Crustal Thickness and Magnetization Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, H. V.

    2004-01-01

    A comparison of the distribution of visible and buried impact basins (Quasi-Circular Depressions or QCDs) on Mars > 200 km in diameter with free air gravity, crustal thickness and magnetization models shows some QCDs have coincident gravity anomalies but most do not. Very few QCDs have closely coincident magnetization anomalies, and only the oldest of the very large impact basins have strong magnetic anomalies within their main rings. Crustal thickness data show a large number of Circular Thinned Areas (CTAs). Some of these correspond to known impact basins, while others may represent buried impact basins not always recognized as QCDs in topography data alone. If true, the buried lowlands may be even older than we have previously estimated.

  15. The state of OA: a large-scale analysis of the prevalence and impact of Open Access articles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piwowar, Heather; Priem, Jason; Larivière, Vincent; Alperin, Juan Pablo; Matthias, Lisa; Norlander, Bree; Farley, Ashley; West, Jevin; Haustein, Stefanie

    2018-01-01

    Despite growing interest in Open Access (OA) to scholarly literature, there is an unmet need for large-scale, up-to-date, and reproducible studies assessing the prevalence and characteristics of OA. We address this need using oaDOI, an open online service that determines OA status for 67 million articles. We use three samples, each of 100,000 articles, to investigate OA in three populations: (1) all journal articles assigned a Crossref DOI, (2) recent journal articles indexed in Web of Science, and (3) articles viewed by users of Unpaywall, an open-source browser extension that lets users find OA articles using oaDOI. We estimate that at least 28% of the scholarly literature is OA (19M in total) and that this proportion is growing, driven particularly by growth in Gold and Hybrid. The most recent year analyzed (2015) also has the highest percentage of OA (45%). Because of this growth, and the fact that readers disproportionately access newer articles, we find that Unpaywall users encounter OA quite frequently: 47% of articles they view are OA. Notably, the most common mechanism for OA is not Gold, Green, or Hybrid OA, but rather an under-discussed category we dub Bronze: articles made free-to-read on the publisher website, without an explicit Open license. We also examine the citation impact of OA articles, corroborating the so-called open-access citation advantage: accounting for age and discipline, OA articles receive 18% more citations than average, an effect driven primarily by Green and Hybrid OA. We encourage further research using the free oaDOI service, as a way to inform OA policy and practice.

  16. Delta lobe degradation and hurricane impacts governing large-scale coastal behavior, South-central Louisiana, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miner, M.D.; Kulp, M.A.; FitzGerald, D.M.; Flocks, J.G.; Weathers, H.D.

    2009-01-01

    A large deficit in the coastal sediment budget, high rates of relative sea-level rise (???0.9 cm/year), and storm-induced current and wave erosion are forcing barrier shoreface retreat along the periphery of the Mississippi River delta plain. Additionally, conversion of interior wetlands to open water has increased the bay tidal prism, resulting in degradation of barrier islands due to inlet widening, formation of new inlets, and sediment sequestration at ebb-tidal deltas. Single-beam bathymetric surveys along a 165-km stretch of south-central Louisiana barrier coast, from Raccoon Point in Terrebonne Parish to Sandy Point in Plaquemines Parish, were conducted in 2006. These data, combined with historical bathymetry from three time periods (dating to the 1880s), provide a series of digital elevation models that were used to calculate sediment volumetric changes and determine long-term erosional-depositional trends. Dominant patterns during the 125-year period include (1) erosion of ???1.6????????109 m3 from the shoreface, forcing up to 3 km of shoreface retreat, (2) sediment deposition in coastal bights and at ebb-tidal deltas, and (3) a combined increase in tidal inlet cross-sectional area from ???41,400 m2 to ???139,500 m 2. Bathymetric and shoreline change datasets separated by shorter time periods (sub-annual) demonstrate that these long-term trends are driven by processes associated with major hurricane impacts, and that rates of shoreface erosion are an order of magnitude greater during active hurricane seasons compared to long-term trends. ?? 2009 Springer-Verlag.

  17. Impact of large-scale circulation changes in the North Atlantic sector on the current and future Mediterranean winter hydroclimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barcikowska, Monika J.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Feser, Frauke

    2018-03-01

    The Mediterranean region, located in the transition zone between the dry subtropical and wet European mid-latitude climate, is very sensitive to changes in the global mean climate state. Projecting future changes of the Mediterranean hydroclimate under global warming therefore requires dynamic climate models to reproduce the main mechanisms controlling regional hydroclimate with sufficiently high resolution to realistically simulate climate extremes. To assess future winter precipitation changes in the Mediterranean region we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory high-resolution general circulation model for control simulations with pre-industrial greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations which are compared to future scenario simulations. Here we show that the coupled model is able to reliably simulate the large-scale winter circulation, including the North Atlantic Oscillation and Eastern Atlantic patterns of variability, and its associated impacts on the mean Mediterranean hydroclimate. The model also realistically reproduces the regional features of daily heavy rainfall, which are absent in lower-resolution simulations. A five-member future projection ensemble, which assumes comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5) until 2100, indicates a strong winter decline in Mediterranean precipitation for the coming decades. Consistent with dynamical and thermodynamical consequences of a warming atmosphere, derived changes feature a distinct bipolar behavior, i.e. wetting in the north—and drying in the south. Changes are most pronounced over the northwest African coast, where the projected winter precipitation decline reaches 40% of present values. Despite a decrease in mean precipitation, heavy rainfall indices show drastic increases across most of the Mediterranean, except the North African coast, which is under the strong influence of the cold Canary Current.

  18. The state of OA: a large-scale analysis of the prevalence and impact of Open Access articles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heather Piwowar

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Despite growing interest in Open Access (OA to scholarly literature, there is an unmet need for large-scale, up-to-date, and reproducible studies assessing the prevalence and characteristics of OA. We address this need using oaDOI, an open online service that determines OA status for 67 million articles. We use three samples, each of 100,000 articles, to investigate OA in three populations: (1 all journal articles assigned a Crossref DOI, (2 recent journal articles indexed in Web of Science, and (3 articles viewed by users of Unpaywall, an open-source browser extension that lets users find OA articles using oaDOI. We estimate that at least 28% of the scholarly literature is OA (19M in total and that this proportion is growing, driven particularly by growth in Gold and Hybrid. The most recent year analyzed (2015 also has the highest percentage of OA (45%. Because of this growth, and the fact that readers disproportionately access newer articles, we find that Unpaywall users encounter OA quite frequently: 47% of articles they view are OA. Notably, the most common mechanism for OA is not Gold, Green, or Hybrid OA, but rather an under-discussed category we dub Bronze: articles made free-to-read on the publisher website, without an explicit Open license. We also examine the citation impact of OA articles, corroborating the so-called open-access citation advantage: accounting for age and discipline, OA articles receive 18% more citations than average, an effect driven primarily by Green and Hybrid OA. We encourage further research using the free oaDOI service, as a way to inform OA policy and practice.

  19. Impact of abbreviated lecture with interactive mini-cases vs traditional lecture on student performance in the large classroom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Leisa L; Nykamp, Diane L; Momary, Kathryn M

    2014-12-15

    To compare the impact of 2 different teaching and learning methods on student mastery of learning objectives in a pharmacotherapy module in the large classroom setting. Two teaching and learning methods were implemented and compared in a required pharmacotherapy module for 2 years. The first year, multiple interactive mini-cases with inclass individual assessment and an abbreviated lecture were used to teach osteoarthritis; a traditional lecture with 1 inclass case discussion was used to teach gout. In the second year, the same topics were used but the methods were flipped. Student performance on pre/post individual readiness assessment tests (iRATs), case questions, and subsequent examinations were compared each year by the teaching and learning method and then between years by topic for each method. Students also voluntarily completed a 20-item evaluation of the teaching and learning methods. Postpresentation iRATs were significantly higher than prepresentation iRATs for each topic each year with the interactive mini-cases; there was no significant difference in iRATs before and after traditional lecture. For osteoarthritis, postpresentation iRATs after interactive mini-cases in year 1 were significantly higher than postpresentation iRATs after traditional lecture in year 2; the difference in iRATs for gout per learning method was not significant. The difference between examination performance for osteoarthritis and gout was not significant when the teaching and learning methods were compared. On the student evaluations, 2 items were significant both years when answers were compared by teaching and learning method. Each year, students ranked their class participation higher with interactive cases than with traditional lecture, but both years they reported enjoying the traditional lecture format more. Multiple interactive mini-cases with an abbreviated lecture improved immediate mastery of learning objectives compared to a traditional lecture format, regardless of

  20. Impacts of different characterizations of large-scale background on simulated regional-scale ozone over the continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogrefe, Christian; Liu, Peng; Pouliot, George; Mathur, Rohit; Roselle, Shawn; Flemming, Johannes; Lin, Meiyun; Park, Rokjin J.

    2018-03-01

    from the global models along the CMAQ boundaries. Using boundary conditions from AM3 yielded higher springtime ozone columns burdens in the middle and lower troposphere compared to boundary conditions from the other models. For surface ozone, the differences between the AM3-driven CMAQ simulations and the CMAQ simulations driven by other large-scale models are especially pronounced during spring and winter where they can reach more than 10 ppb for seasonal mean ozone mixing ratios and as much as 15 ppb for domain-averaged daily maximum 8 h average ozone on individual days. In contrast, the differences between the C-IFS-, GEOS-Chem-, and H-CMAQ-driven regional-scale CMAQ simulations are typically smaller. Comparing simulated surface ozone mixing ratios to observations and computing seasonal and regional model performance statistics revealed that boundary conditions can have a substantial impact on model performance. Further analysis showed that boundary conditions can affect model performance across the entire range of the observed distribution, although the impacts tend to be lower during summer and for the very highest observed percentiles. The results are discussed in the context of future model development and analysis opportunities.

  1. Models of Automation Surprise: Results of a Field Survey in Aviation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert De Boer

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Automation surprises in aviation continue to be a significant safety concern and the community’s search for effective strategies to mitigate them are ongoing. The literature has offered two fundamentally divergent directions, based on different ideas about the nature of cognition and collaboration with automation. In this paper, we report the results of a field study that empirically compared and contrasted two models of automation surprises: a normative individual-cognition model and a sensemaking model based on distributed cognition. Our data prove a good fit for the sense-making model. This finding is relevant for aviation safety, since our understanding of the cognitive processes that govern human interaction with automation drive what we need to do to reduce the frequency of automation-induced events.

  2. Demonstrating a new framework for the comparison of environmental impacts from small- and large-scale hydropower and wind power projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakken, Tor Haakon; Aase, Anne Guri; Hagen, Dagmar; Sundt, Håkon; Barton, David N; Lujala, Päivi

    2014-07-01

    Climate change and the needed reductions in the use of fossil fuels call for the development of renewable energy sources. However, renewable energy production, such as hydropower (both small- and large-scale) and wind power have adverse impacts on the local environment by causing reductions in biodiversity and loss of habitats and species. This paper compares the environmental impacts of many small-scale hydropower plants with a few large-scale hydropower projects and one wind power farm, based on the same set of environmental parameters; land occupation, reduction in wilderness areas (INON), visibility and impacts on red-listed species. Our basis for comparison was similar energy volumes produced, without considering the quality of the energy services provided. The results show that small-scale hydropower performs less favourably in all parameters except land occupation. The land occupation of large hydropower and wind power is in the range of 45-50 m(2)/MWh, which is more than two times larger than the small-scale hydropower, where the large land occupation for large hydropower is explained by the extent of the reservoirs. On all the three other parameters small-scale hydropower performs more than two times worse than both large hydropower and wind power. Wind power compares similarly to large-scale hydropower regarding land occupation, much better on the reduction in INON areas, and in the same range regarding red-listed species. Our results demonstrate that the selected four parameters provide a basis for further development of a fair and consistent comparison of impacts between the analysed renewable technologies. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  3. Human Amygdala Tracks a Feature-Based Valence Signal Embedded within the Facial Expression of Surprise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, M Justin; Mattek, Alison M; Bennett, Randi H; Solomon, Kimberly M; Shin, Jin; Whalen, Paul J

    2017-09-27

    Human amygdala function has been traditionally associated with processing the affective valence (negative vs positive) of an emotionally charged event, especially those that signal fear or threat. However, this account of human amygdala function can be explained by alternative views, which posit that the amygdala might be tuned to either (1) general emotional arousal (activation vs deactivation) or (2) specific emotion categories (fear vs happy). Delineating the pure effects of valence independent of arousal or emotion category is a challenging task, given that these variables naturally covary under many circumstances. To circumvent this issue and test the sensitivity of the human amygdala to valence values specifically, we measured the dimension of valence within the single facial expression category of surprise. Given the inherent valence ambiguity of this category, we show that surprised expression exemplars are attributed valence and arousal values that are uniquely and naturally uncorrelated. We then present fMRI data from both sexes, showing that the amygdala tracks these consensus valence values. Finally, we provide evidence that these valence values are linked to specific visual features of the mouth region, isolating the signal by which the amygdala detects this valence information. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT There is an open question as to whether human amygdala function tracks the valence value of cues in the environment, as opposed to either a more general emotional arousal value or a more specific emotion category distinction. Here, we demonstrate the utility of surprised facial expressions because exemplars within this emotion category take on valence values spanning the dimension of bipolar valence (positive to negative) at a consistent level of emotional arousal. Functional neuroimaging data showed that amygdala responses tracked the valence of surprised facial expressions, unconfounded by arousal. Furthermore, a machine learning classifier identified

  4. Prediction, Expectation, and Surprise: Methods, Designs, and Study of a Deployed Traffic Forecasting Service

    OpenAIRE

    Horvitz, Eric J.; Apacible, Johnson; Sarin, Raman; Liao, Lin

    2012-01-01

    We present research on developing models that forecast traffic flow and congestion in the Greater Seattle area. The research has led to the deployment of a service named JamBayes, that is being actively used by over 2,500 users via smartphones and desktop versions of the system. We review the modeling effort and describe experiments probing the predictive accuracy of the models. Finally, we present research on building models that can identify current and future surprises, via efforts on mode...

  5. The effect of emotionally valenced eye region images on visuocortical processing of surprised faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shuaixia; Li, Ping; Wang, Wei; Zhu, Xiangru; Luo, Wenbo

    2018-05-01

    In this study, we presented pictorial representations of happy, neutral, and fearful expressions projected in the eye regions to determine whether the eye region alone is sufficient to produce a context effect. Participants were asked to judge the valence of surprised faces that had been preceded by a picture of an eye region. Behavioral results showed that affective ratings of surprised faces were context dependent. Prime-related ERPs with presentation of happy eyes elicited a larger P1 than those for neutral and fearful eyes, likely due to the recognition advantage provided by a happy expression. Target-related ERPs showed that surprised faces in the context of fearful and happy eyes elicited dramatically larger C1 than those in the neutral context, which reflected the modulation by predictions during the earliest stages of face processing. There were larger N170 with neutral and fearful eye contexts compared to the happy context, suggesting faces were being integrated with contextual threat information. The P3 component exhibited enhanced brain activity in response to faces preceded by happy and fearful eyes compared with neutral eyes, indicating motivated attention processing may be involved at this stage. Altogether, these results indicate for the first time that the influence of isolated eye regions on the perception of surprised faces involves preferential processing at the early stages and elaborate processing at the late stages. Moreover, higher cognitive processes such as predictions and attention can modulate face processing from the earliest stages in a top-down manner. © 2017 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  6. Impact of target mRNA structure on siRNA silencing efficiency: A large-scale study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gredell, Joseph A; Berger, Angela K; Walton, S Patrick

    2008-07-01

    The selection of active siRNAs is generally based on identifying siRNAs with certain sequence and structural properties. However, the efficiency of RNA interference has also been shown to depend on the structure of the target mRNA, primarily through studies using exogenous transcripts with well-defined secondary structures in the vicinity of the target sequence. While these studies provide a means for examining the impact of target sequence and structure independently, the predicted secondary structures for these transcripts are often not reflective of structures that form in full-length, native mRNAs where interactions can occur between relatively remote segments of the mRNAs. Here, using a combination of experimental results and analysis of a large dataset, we demonstrate that the accessibility of certain local target structures on the mRNA is an important determinant in the gene silencing ability of siRNAs. siRNAs targeting the enhanced green fluorescent protein were chosen using a minimal siRNA selection algorithm followed by classification based on the predicted minimum free energy structures of the target transcripts. Transfection into HeLa and HepG2 cells revealed that siRNAs targeting regions of the mRNA predicted to have unpaired 5'- and 3'-ends resulted in greater gene silencing than regions predicted to have other types of secondary structure. These results were confirmed by analysis of gene silencing data from previously published siRNAs, which showed that mRNA target regions unpaired at either the 5'-end or 3'-end were silenced, on average, approximately 10% more strongly than target regions unpaired in the center or primarily paired throughout. We found this effect to be independent of the structure of the siRNA guide strand. Taken together, these results suggest minimal requirements for nucleation of hybridization between the siRNA guide strand and mRNA and that both mRNA and guide strand structure should be considered when choosing candidate si

  7. Impact of high energy high intensity proton beams on targets: Case studies for Super Proton Synchrotron and Large Hadron Collider

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Tahir

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The Large Hadron Collider (LHC is designed to collide two proton beams with unprecedented particle energy of 7 TeV. Each beam comprises 2808 bunches and the separation between two neighboring bunches is 25 ns. The energy stored in each beam is 362 MJ, sufficient to melt 500 kg copper. Safety of operation is very important when working with such powerful beams. An accidental release of even a very small fraction of the beam energy can result in severe damage to the equipment. The machine protection system is essential to handle all types of possible accidental hazards; however, it is important to know about possible consequences of failures. One of the critical failure scenarios is when the entire beam is lost at a single point. In this paper we present detailed numerical simulations of the full impact of one LHC beam on a cylindrical solid carbon target. First, the energy deposition by the protons is calculated with the FLUKA code and this energy deposition is used in the BIG2 code to study the corresponding thermodynamic and the hydrodynamic response of the target that leads to a reduction in the density. The modified density distribution is used in FLUKA to calculate new energy loss distribution and the two codes are thus run iteratively. A suitable iteration step is considered to be the time interval during which the target density along the axis decreases by 15%–20%. Our simulations suggest that the full LHC proton beam penetrates up to 25 m in solid carbon whereas the range of the shower from a single proton in solid carbon is just about 3 m (hydrodynamic tunneling effect. It is planned to perform experiments at the experimental facility HiRadMat (High Radiation Materials at CERN using the proton beam from the Super Proton Synchrotron (SPS, to compare experimental results with the theoretical predictions. Therefore simulations of the response of a solid copper cylindrical target hit by the SPS beam were performed. The particle

  8. Impact of high energy high intensity proton beams on targets: Case studies for Super Proton Synchrotron and Large Hadron Collider

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tahir, N. A.; Sancho, J. Blanco; Shutov, A.; Schmidt, R.; Piriz, A. R.

    2012-05-01

    The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is designed to collide two proton beams with unprecedented particle energy of 7 TeV. Each beam comprises 2808 bunches and the separation between two neighboring bunches is 25 ns. The energy stored in each beam is 362 MJ, sufficient to melt 500 kg copper. Safety of operation is very important when working with such powerful beams. An accidental release of even a very small fraction of the beam energy can result in severe damage to the equipment. The machine protection system is essential to handle all types of possible accidental hazards; however, it is important to know about possible consequences of failures. One of the critical failure scenarios is when the entire beam is lost at a single point. In this paper we present detailed numerical simulations of the full impact of one LHC beam on a cylindrical solid carbon target. First, the energy deposition by the protons is calculated with the FLUKA code and this energy deposition is used in the BIG2 code to study the corresponding thermodynamic and the hydrodynamic response of the target that leads to a reduction in the density. The modified density distribution is used in FLUKA to calculate new energy loss distribution and the two codes are thus run iteratively. A suitable iteration step is considered to be the time interval during which the target density along the axis decreases by 15%-20%. Our simulations suggest that the full LHC proton beam penetrates up to 25 m in solid carbon whereas the range of the shower from a single proton in solid carbon is just about 3 m (hydrodynamic tunneling effect). It is planned to perform experiments at the experimental facility HiRadMat (High Radiation Materials) at CERN using the proton beam from the Super Proton Synchrotron (SPS), to compare experimental results with the theoretical predictions. Therefore simulations of the response of a solid copper cylindrical target hit by the SPS beam were performed. The particle energy in the SPS beam is 440

  9. Quantifying the impact of bathymetric changes on the hydrological regimes in a large floodplain lake: Poyang Lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Jing; Zhang, Qi; Ye, Xuchun; Zhang, Dan; Bai, Peng

    2018-06-01

    The hydrological regime of a lake is largely dependent on its bathymetry. A dramatic water level reduction has occurred in Poyang Lake in recent years, coinciding with significant bed erosion. Few studies have focused on the influence of bathymetric changes on the hydrological regime in such a complex river-lake floodplain system. This study combined hydrological data and a physically based hydrodynamic model to quantify the influence of the bathymetric changes (1998-2010) on the water level spatiotemporal distribution in Poyang Lake, based on a dry year (2006), a wet year (2010) and an average year (2000-2010). The following conclusions can be drawn from the results of this study: (1) The bed erosion of the northern outlet channel averaged 3 m, resulting in a decrease in the water level by 1.2-2 m in the northern channels (the most significantly influenced areas) and approximately 0.3 m in the central lake areas during low-level periods. The water levels below 16 m and 14 m were significantly affected during the rising period and recession period, respectively. The water level reduction was enhanced due to lower water levels. (2) The water surface profiles adjusted, and the rising and recession rates of the water level increased by 0.5-3.1 cm/d at the lake outlet. The bathymetric influence extended across the entire lake due to the emptying effect, resulting in a change in the water level distribution. The average annual outflow increased by 6.8%. (3) The bathymetric changes contributed approximately 14.4% to the extreme low water level in autumn 2006 and enhanced the drought in the dry season. This study quantified the impact of the bathymetric changes on the lake water levels, thereby providing a better understanding of the potential effects of continued sand mining operations and providing scientific explanations for the considerable variations in the hydrological regimes of Poyang Lake. Moreover, this study attempts to provide a reference for the assessment of

  10. Analysis of the economic impact of large-scale deployment of biomass resources for energy and materials in the Netherlands : macro-economics biobased synthesis report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoefnagels, R.; Dornburg, V.; Faaij, A.; Banse, M.A.H.

    2011-01-01

    The Bio-based Raw Materials Platform (PGG), part of the Energy Transition in The Netherlands, commissioned the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI) and the Copernicus Institute of Utrecht University to conduct research on the macro-economic impact of large scale deployment of biomass for

  11. Modelling Pasture-based Automatic Milking System Herds: The Impact of Large Herd on Milk Yield and Economics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Islam

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this modelling study was to investigate the effect of large herd size (and land areas on walking distances and milking interval (MI, and their impact on milk yield and economic penalties when 50% of the total diets were provided from home grown feed either as pasture or grazeable complementary forage rotation (CFR in an automatic milking system (AMS. Twelve scenarios consisting of 3 AMS herds (400, 600, 800 cows, 2 levels of pasture utilisation (current AMS utilisation of 15.0 t dry matter [DM]/ha, termed as ‘moderate’; optimum pasture utilisation of 19.7 t DM/ha, termed as ‘high’ and 2 rates of incorporation of grazeable complementary forage system (CFS: 0, 30%; CFS = 65% farm is CFR and 35% of farm is pasture were investigated. Walking distances, energy loss due to walking, MI, reduction in milk yield and income loss were calculated for each treatment based on information available in the literature. With moderate pasture utilisation and 0% CFR, increasing the herd size from 400 to 800 cows resulted in an increase in total walking distances between the parlour and the paddock from 3.5 to 6.3 km. Consequently, MI increased from 15.2 to 16.4 h with increased herd size from 400 to 800 cows. High pasture utilisation (allowing for an increased stocking density reduced the total walking distances up to 1 km, thus reduced the MI by up to 0.5 h compared to the moderate pasture, 800 cow herd combination. The high pasture utilisation combined with 30% of the farm in CFR in the farm reduced the total walking distances by up to 1.7 km and MI by up to 0.8 h compared to the moderate pasture and 800 cow herd combination. For moderate pasture utilisation, increasing the herd size from 400 to 800 cows resulted in more dramatic milk yield penalty as yield increasing from c.f. 2.6 and 5.1 kg/cow/d respectively, which incurred a loss of up to $AU 1.9/cow/d. Milk yield losses of 0.61 kg and 0.25 kg for every km increase in total walking distance

  12. Modelling Pasture-based Automatic Milking System Herds: The Impact of Large Herd on Milk Yield and Economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, M R; Clark, C E F; Garcia, S C; Kerrisk, K L

    2015-07-01

    The aim of this modelling study was to investigate the effect of large herd size (and land areas) on walking distances and milking interval (MI), and their impact on milk yield and economic penalties when 50% of the total diets were provided from home grown feed either as pasture or grazeable complementary forage rotation (CFR) in an automatic milking system (AMS). Twelve scenarios consisting of 3 AMS herds (400, 600, 800 cows), 2 levels of pasture utilisation (current AMS utilisation of 15.0 t dry matter [DM]/ha, termed as 'moderate'; optimum pasture utilisation of 19.7 t DM/ha, termed as 'high') and 2 rates of incorporation of grazeable complementary forage system (CFS: 0, 30%; CFS = 65% farm is CFR and 35% of farm is pasture) were investigated. Walking distances, energy loss due to walking, MI, reduction in milk yield and income loss were calculated for each treatment based on information available in the literature. With moderate pasture utilisation and 0% CFR, increasing the herd size from 400 to 800 cows resulted in an increase in total walking distances between the parlour and the paddock from 3.5 to 6.3 km. Consequently, MI increased from 15.2 to 16.4 h with increased herd size from 400 to 800 cows. High pasture utilisation (allowing for an increased stocking density) reduced the total walking distances up to 1 km, thus reduced the MI by up to 0.5 h compared to the moderate pasture, 800 cow herd combination. The high pasture utilisation combined with 30% of the farm in CFR in the farm reduced the total walking distances by up to 1.7 km and MI by up to 0.8 h compared to the moderate pasture and 800 cow herd combination. For moderate pasture utilisation, increasing the herd size from 400 to 800 cows resulted in more dramatic milk yield penalty as yield increasing from c.f. 2.6 and 5.1 kg/cow/d respectively, which incurred a loss of up to $AU 1.9/cow/d. Milk yield losses of 0.61 kg and 0.25 kg for every km increase in total walking distance (voluntary return

  13. Analysis of physiological signals for recognition of boredom, pain, and surprise emotions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Eun-Hye; Park, Byoung-Jun; Park, Mi-Sook; Kim, Sang-Hyeob; Sohn, Jin-Hun

    2015-06-18

    The aim of the study was to examine the differences of boredom, pain, and surprise. In addition to that, it was conducted to propose approaches for emotion recognition based on physiological signals. Three emotions, boredom, pain, and surprise, are induced through the presentation of emotional stimuli and electrocardiography (ECG), electrodermal activity (EDA), skin temperature (SKT), and photoplethysmography (PPG) as physiological signals are measured to collect a dataset from 217 participants when experiencing the emotions. Twenty-seven physiological features are extracted from the signals to classify the three emotions. The discriminant function analysis (DFA) as a statistical method, and five machine learning algorithms (linear discriminant analysis (LDA), classification and regression trees (CART), self-organizing map (SOM), Naïve Bayes algorithm, and support vector machine (SVM)) are used for classifying the emotions. The result shows that the difference of physiological responses among emotions is significant in heart rate (HR), skin conductance level (SCL), skin conductance response (SCR), mean skin temperature (meanSKT), blood volume pulse (BVP), and pulse transit time (PTT), and the highest recognition accuracy of 84.7% is obtained by using DFA. This study demonstrates the differences of boredom, pain, and surprise and the best emotion recognizer for the classification of the three emotions by using physiological signals.

  14. A method for the assessment of the visual impact caused by the large-scale deployment of renewable-energy facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodrigues, Marcos; Montanes, Carlos; Fueyo, Norberto

    2010-01-01

    The production of energy from renewable sources requires a significantly larger use of the territory compared with conventional (fossil and nuclear) sources. For large penetrations of renewable technologies, such as wind power, the overall visual impact at the national level can be substantial, and may prompt public reaction. This study develops a methodology for the assessment of the visual impact that can be used to measure and report the level of impact caused by several renewable technologies (wind farms, solar photovoltaic plants or solar thermal ones), both at the local and regional (e.g. national) scales. Applications are shown to several large-scale, hypothetical scenarios of wind and solar-energy penetration in Spain, and also to the vicinity of an actual, single wind farm.

  15. Uncertainties of Large-Scale Forcing Caused by Surface Turbulence Flux Measurements and the Impacts on Cloud Simulations at the ARM SGP Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, S.; Xie, S.; Tang, Q.; Zhang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Two types of instruments, the eddy correlation flux measurement system (ECOR) and the energy balance Bowen ratio system (EBBR), are used at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site to measure surface latent and sensible fluxes. ECOR and EBBR typically sample different land surface types, and the domain-mean surface fluxes derived from ECOR and EBBR are not always consistent. The uncertainties of the surface fluxes will have impacts on the derived large-scale forcing data and further affect the simulations of single-column models (SCM), cloud-resolving models (CRM) and large-eddy simulation models (LES), especially for the shallow-cumulus clouds which are mainly driven by surface forcing. This study aims to quantify the uncertainties of the large-scale forcing caused by surface turbulence flux measurements and investigate the impacts on cloud simulations using long-term observations from the ARM SGP site.

  16. Experimental stress analysis of large plastic deformations in a hollow sphere deformed by impact against a concrete block

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, R. E.

    1973-01-01

    An experimental plastic strain measurement system is presented for use on the surface of high velocity impact test models. The system was used on a hollow sphere tested in impact against a reinforced concrete block. True strains, deviatoric stresses, and true stresses were calculated from experimental measurements. The maximum strain measured in the model was small compared to the true failure strain obtained from static tensile tests of model material. This fact suggests that a much greater impact velocity would be required to cause failure of the model shell structure.

  17. Impacts of large-scale Intermittent Renewable Energy Sources on electricity systems, and how these can be modeled

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, Anne Sjoerd; Van Den Broek, Machteld; Seebregts, Ad; Faaij, André

    The electricity sector in OECD countries is on the brink of a large shift towards low-carbon electricity generation. Power systems after 2030 may consist largely of two low-carbon generator types: Intermittent Renewable Energy Sources (IRES) such as wind and solar PV and thermal generators such as

  18. A Few Large Roads or Many Small Ones? How to Accommodate Growth in Vehicle Numbers to Minimise Impacts on Wildlife

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, Jonathan R.; Lunney, Daniel; Callaghan, John; McAlpine, Clive A.

    2014-01-01

    Roads and vehicular traffic are among the most pervasive of threats to biodiversity because they fragmenting habitat, increasing mortality and opening up new areas for the exploitation of natural resources. However, the number of vehicles on roads is increasing rapidly and this is likely to continue into the future, putting increased pressure on wildlife populations. Consequently, a major challenge is the planning of road networks to accommodate increased numbers of vehicles, while minimising impacts on wildlife. Nonetheless, we currently have few principles for guiding decisions on road network planning to reduce impacts on wildlife in real landscapes. We addressed this issue by developing an approach for quantifying the impact on wildlife mortality of two alternative mechanisms for accommodating growth in vehicle numbers: (1) increasing the number of roads, and (2) increasing traffic volumes on existing roads. We applied this approach to a koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) population in eastern Australia and quantified the relative impact of each strategy on mortality. We show that, in most cases, accommodating growth in traffic through increases in volumes on existing roads has a lower impact than building new roads. An exception is where the existing road network has very low road density, but very high traffic volumes on each road. These findings have important implications for how we design road networks to reduce their impacts on biodiversity. PMID:24646891

  19. A few large roads or many small ones? How to accommodate growth in vehicle numbers to minimise impacts on wildlife.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan R Rhodes

    Full Text Available Roads and vehicular traffic are among the most pervasive of threats to biodiversity because they fragmenting habitat, increasing mortality and opening up new areas for the exploitation of natural resources. However, the number of vehicles on roads is increasing rapidly and this is likely to continue into the future, putting increased pressure on wildlife populations. Consequently, a major challenge is the planning of road networks to accommodate increased numbers of vehicles, while minimising impacts on wildlife. Nonetheless, we currently have few principles for guiding decisions on road network planning to reduce impacts on wildlife in real landscapes. We addressed this issue by developing an approach for quantifying the impact on wildlife mortality of two alternative mechanisms for accommodating growth in vehicle numbers: (1 increasing the number of roads, and (2 increasing traffic volumes on existing roads. We applied this approach to a koala (Phascolarctos cinereus population in eastern Australia and quantified the relative impact of each strategy on mortality. We show that, in most cases, accommodating growth in traffic through increases in volumes on existing roads has a lower impact than building new roads. An exception is where the existing road network has very low road density, but very high traffic volumes on each road. These findings have important implications for how we design road networks to reduce their impacts on biodiversity.

  20. A few large roads or many small ones? How to accommodate growth in vehicle numbers to minimise impacts on wildlife.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, Jonathan R; Lunney, Daniel; Callaghan, John; McAlpine, Clive A

    2014-01-01

    Roads and vehicular traffic are among the most pervasive of threats to biodiversity because they fragmenting habitat, increasing mortality and opening up new areas for the exploitation of natural resources. However, the number of vehicles on roads is increasing rapidly and this is likely to continue into the future, putting increased pressure on wildlife populations. Consequently, a major challenge is the planning of road networks to accommodate increased numbers of vehicles, while minimising impacts on wildlife. Nonetheless, we currently have few principles for guiding decisions on road network planning to reduce impacts on wildlife in real landscapes. We addressed this issue by developing an approach for quantifying the impact on wildlife mortality of two alternative mechanisms for accommodating growth in vehicle numbers: (1) increasing the number of roads, and (2) increasing traffic volumes on existing roads. We applied this approach to a koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) population in eastern Australia and quantified the relative impact of each strategy on mortality. We show that, in most cases, accommodating growth in traffic through increases in volumes on existing roads has a lower impact than building new roads. An exception is where the existing road network has very low road density, but very high traffic volumes on each road. These findings have important implications for how we design road networks to reduce their impacts on biodiversity.

  1. Environmental impact assessment and environmental audit in large-scale public infrastructure construction: the case of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Guizhen; Zhang, Lei; Lu, Yonglong

    2009-09-01

    Large-scale public infrastructure projects have featured in China's modernization course since the early 1980s. During the early stages of China's rapid economic development, public attention focused on the economic and social impact of high-profile construction projects. In recent years, however, we have seen a shift in public concern toward the environmental and ecological effects of such projects, and today governments are required to provide valid environmental impact assessments prior to allowing large-scale construction. The official requirement for the monitoring of environmental conditions has led to an increased number of debates in recent years regarding the effectiveness of Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) and Governmental Environmental Audits (GEAs) as environmental safeguards in instances of large-scale construction. Although EIA and GEA are conducted by different institutions and have different goals and enforcement potential, these two practices can be closely related in terms of methodology. This article cites the construction of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway as an instance in which EIA and GEA offer complementary approaches to environmental impact management. This study concludes that the GEA approach can serve as an effective follow-up to the EIA and establishes that the EIA lays a base for conducting future GEAs. The relationship that emerges through a study of the Railway's construction calls for more deliberate institutional arrangements and cooperation if the two practices are to be used in concert to optimal effect.

  2. Impact of the Irish smoking ban on sales in bars using a large business-level data set from 1999 to 2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornelsen, Laura; Normand, Charles

    2014-09-01

    Ireland introduced comprehensive smoke-free workplace legislation in 2004. This study evaluates the economic impact of the workplace smoking ban on the value of sales in bars. Data on the value of bar sales were derived from a large, nationally representative, annual business-level survey from 1999 to 2007. The economic impact of the smoking ban was evaluated according to geographical region and bar size. Analysis was based on an econometric model which controlled for background changes in population income and wealth and for investments made by the bars during this period. The overall impact of the Irish smoking ban on bar sales appears to be very small. The ban was associated with an increase in sales among medium to large bars in the Border-Midland-West (more rural) region of Ireland, and a small reduction in sales among large bars in the more urban, South-East region. We failed to find any evidence of a change in bar sales in the remaining categories studied. The results indicate that although some bars saw positive effects and some negative, the overall impact of the smoking ban on the value of sales in bars was negligible. These findings provide further supporting evidence that comprehensive smoke-free workplace legislation does not harm hospitality businesses while having positive health effects. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  3. A qualitative study into the impact of fasting within a large tertiary hospital in Australia--the patients' perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Sharon K; Conchin, Simone; Bloomfield-Stone, Susan

    2015-07-01

    This qualitative study aims to explore the physical and emotional impact of fasting from the patients' perspective. Fasting patients in hospital is common practice and generally viewed as necessary for symptom management or for safety of healthcare provision. Negative impacts of repeated or prolonged fasting on nutritional status have been well researched, but little is documented as to how fasting impacts an individual patient's psyche. Qualitative descriptive design within a tertiary hospital in Sydney, Australia. Twelve patients having had prolonged periods of continuous or intermittent fasting were invited to participate in a semi-structured interview between January-September 2012. Questions for interview explored each patient's experience of fasting, including physical and emotional impacts, interpretation of communication regarding fasting and the process of recommencing on fluids or foods. An inductive thematic analysis approach was used. Analyses showed six main themes: physical impacts; emotional impacts; food as structure; nil by mouth as jargon; fear of food re-introduction; and dissatisfaction regarding unnecessary fasting. Overwhelmingly, thirst was reported as the worst physical effect of fasting. In the first few days of fasting, patients became emotionally fixated on food. This quickly dissipated leading to a lack of appetite and fear of starting to eat again. Discomfort experienced by patients coupled with lack of appetite resulting from prolonged fasting and difficulty with food re-introduction strengthens the argument for reducing fasting times in hospital. When patients are fasted, proper hydration and establishing alternate routes of medication administration should be a priority. It is well recognised that fasting for prolonged periods is detrimental to health outcomes, but this study also shows the distress that fasting can cause. Inadequate hospital systems and out-dated practices need to be replaced with evidence-based, patient

  4. Mitigating Aviation Communication and Satellite Orbit Operations Surprises from Adverse Space Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobiska, W. Kent

    2008-01-01

    Adverse space weather affects operational activities in aviation and satellite systems. For example, large solar flares create highly variable enhanced neutral atmosphere and ionosphere electron density regions. These regions impact aviation communication frequencies as well as precision orbit determination. The natural space environment, with its dynamic space weather variability, is additionally changed by human activity. The increase in orbital debris in low Earth orbit (LEO), combined with lower atmosphere CO2 that rises into the lower thermosphere and causes increased cooling that results in increased debris lifetime, adds to the environmental hazards of navigating in near-Earth space. This is at a time when commercial space endeavors are posed to begin more missions to LEO during the rise of the solar activity cycle toward the next maximum (2012). For satellite and aviation operators, adverse space weather results in greater expenses for orbit management, more communication outages or aviation and ground-based high frequency radio used, and an inability to effectively plan missions or service customers with space-based communication, imagery, and data transferal during time-critical activities. Examples of some revenue-impacting conditions and solutions for mitigating adverse space weather are offered.

  5. Evaluation of the Potential Environmental Impacts from Large-Scale Use and Production of Hydrogen in Energy and Transportation Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Dubey, M.K., Edmonds, J.; Layzell, D.; Olsen, S.; Rahn, T.; Rocket, A.; Wang, D.; Jia, W.

    2010-06-01

    The purpose of this project is to systematically identify and examine possible near and long-term ecological and environmental effects from the production of hydrogen from various energy sources based on the DOE hydrogen production strategy and the use of that hydrogen in transportation applications. This project uses state-of-the-art numerical modeling tools of the environment and energy system emissions in combination with relevant new and prior measurements and other analyses to assess the understanding of the potential ecological and environmental impacts from hydrogen market penetration. H2 technology options and market penetration scenarios will be evaluated using energy-technology-economics models as well as atmospheric trace gas projections based on the IPCC SRES scenarios including the decline in halocarbons due to the Montreal Protocol. Specifically we investigate the impact of hydrogen releases on the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere, the long-term stability of the ozone layer due to changes in hydrogen emissions, the impact of hydrogen emissions and resulting concentrations on climate, the impact on microbial ecosystems involved in hydrogen uptake, and criteria pollutants emitted from distributed and centralized hydrogen production pathways and their impacts on human health, air quality, ecosystems, and structures under different penetration scenarios

  6. Would you be surprised if this patient died?: Preliminary exploration of first and second year residents' approach to care decisions in critically ill patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armstrong John D

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background How physicians approach decision-making when caring for critically ill patients is poorly understood. This study aims to explore how residents think about prognosis and approach care decisions when caring for seriously ill, hospitalized patients. Methods Qualitative study where we conducted structured discussions with first and second year internal medicine residents (n = 8 caring for critically ill patients during Medical Intensive Care Unit Ethics and Discharge Planning Rounds. Residents were asked to respond to questions beginning with "Would you be surprised if this patient died?" Results An equal number of residents responded that they would (n = 4 or would not (n = 4 be surprised if their patient died. Reasons for being surprised included the rapid onset of an acute illness, reversible disease, improving clinical course and the patient's prior survival under similar circumstances. Residents reported no surprise with worsening clinical course. Based on the realization that their patient might die, residents cited potential changes in management that included clarifying treatment goals, improving communication with families, spending more time with patients and ordering fewer laboratory tests. Perceived or implied barriers to changes in management included limited time, competing clinical priorities, "not knowing" a patient, limited knowledge and experience, presence of diagnostic or prognostic uncertainty and unclear treatment goals. Conclusions These junior-level residents appear to rely on clinical course, among other factors, when assessing prognosis and the possibility for death in severely ill patients. Further investigation is needed to understand how these factors impact decision-making and whether perceived barriers to changes in patient management influence approaches to care.

  7. The influence of the surprising decay properties of element 108 on search experiments for new elements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hofmann, S.; Armbruster, P.; Muenzenberg, G.; Reisdorf, W.; Schmidt, K.H.; Burkhard, H.G.; Hessberger, F.P.; Schoett, H.J.; Agarwal, Y.K.; Berthes, G.; Gollerthan, U.; Folger, H.; Hingmann, J.G.; Keller, J.G.; Leino, M.E.; Lemmertz, P.; Montoya, M.; Poppensieker, K.; Quint, B.; Zychor, I.

    1986-01-01

    Results of experiments to synthesize the heaviest elements are reported. Surprising is the high stability against fission not only of the odd and odd-odd nuclei but also of even isotopes of even elements. Alpha decay data gave an increasing stability of nuclei by shell effects up to 266 109, the heaviest known element. Theoretically, the high stability is explained by an island of nuclei with big quadrupole and hexadecapole deformations around Z=109 and N=162. Future experiments will be planned to prove the island character of these heavy nuclei. (orig.)

  8. Impact of Neutrino Oscillation Measurements on Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murayama, Hitoshi

    2003-01-01

    Neutrino oscillation data had been a big surprise to theorists, and indeed they have ongoing impact on theory. I review what the impact has been, and what measurements will have critical impact on theory in the future.

  9. Preliminary discussion on possible genesis of crustal rotation, its impact on geotectonic evolution and its relation to large-scale metallogeny in Hunan province and adjacent regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shu Xiaojing

    2005-01-01

    Hunan province and adjacent regions show ring-form distribution features both on surface geologic structure and geophysical field. Such features might result from the rotation movement of the earth crust and exert serious impact on the geotectonic evolution and large-scale metallogeny in Hunan province and adjacent regions. This paper makes a preliminary discussion on the possible genesis of such rotation movement, as well as the associated series of geologic processes and its relation to large-scale metallogeny in Hunan province and adjacent regions. (authors)

  10. Clinical Impact of TP53 Gene Mutations in Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma (DLBCL)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Young, Ken H; Patten, Nancy; Truong, Sim

    2009-01-01

    Mutations of the TP53 tumor suppressor gene are associated with a poor clinical outcome in DLBCL patients treated with CHOP. The impact of TP53 mutations on clinical outcome of DLBCL patients treated with Rituxan-CHOP has not been comprehensively analyzed. The purpose of this study was to analyze...

  11. Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boit, Alice; Sakschewski, Boris; Boysen, Lena; Cano-Crespo, Ana; Clement, Jan; Garcia-alaniz, Nashieli; Kok, Kasper; Kolb, Melanie; Langerwisch, Fanny; Rammig, Anja; Sachse, René; Eupen, van Michiel; Bloh, von Werner; Clara Zemp, Delphine; Thonicke, Kirsten

    2016-01-01

    Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a

  12. Simulation of droplet impact onto a deep pool for large Froude numbers in different open-source codes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korchagova, V. N.; Kraposhin, M. V.; Marchevsky, I. K.; Smirnova, E. V.

    2017-11-01

    A droplet impact on a deep pool can induce macro-scale or micro-scale effects like a crown splash, a high-speed jet, formation of secondary droplets or thin liquid films, etc. It depends on the diameter and velocity of the droplet, liquid properties, effects of external forces and other factors that a ratio of dimensionless criteria can account for. In the present research, we considered the droplet and the pool consist of the same viscous incompressible liquid. We took surface tension into account but neglected gravity forces. We used two open-source codes (OpenFOAM and Gerris) for our computations. We review the possibility of using these codes for simulation of processes in free-surface flows that may take place after a droplet impact on the pool. Both codes simulated several modes of droplet impact. We estimated the effect of liquid properties with respect to the Reynolds number and Weber number. Numerical simulation enabled us to find boundaries between different modes of droplet impact on a deep pool and to plot corresponding mode maps. The ratio of liquid density to that of the surrounding gas induces several changes in mode maps. Increasing this density ratio suppresses the crown splash.

  13. Prognostic impact of concurrent MYC and BCL6 rearrangements and expression in de novo diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ye, Qing; Xu-Monette, Zijun Y; Tzankov, Alexandar

    2016-01-01

    Double-hit B-cell lymphoma is a common designation for a group of tumors characterized by concurrent translocations of MYC and BCL2, BCL6, or other genes. The prognosis of concurrent MYC and BCL6 translocations is not well known. In this study, we assessed rearrangements and expression of MYC, BCL2...... frequent in activated B-cell like diffuse large B-cell lymphoma). In summary, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma patients with either MYC/BCL6 rearrangements or MYC/BCL6 co-expression did not always have poorer prognosis; MYC expression levels should be evaluated simultaneously; and double-hit B-cell lymphoma...

  14. Surprisal analysis of Glioblastoma Multiform (GBM) microRNA dynamics unveils tumor specific phenotype.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zadran, Sohila; Remacle, Francoise; Levine, Raphael

    2014-01-01

    Gliomablastoma multiform (GBM) is the most fatal form of all brain cancers in humans. Currently there are limited diagnostic tools for GBM detection. Here, we applied surprisal analysis, a theory grounded in thermodynamics, to unveil how biomolecule energetics, specifically a redistribution of free energy amongst microRNAs (miRNAs), results in a system deviating from a non-cancer state to the GBM cancer -specific phenotypic state. Utilizing global miRNA microarray expression data of normal and GBM patients tumors, surprisal analysis characterizes a miRNA system response capable of distinguishing GBM samples from normal tissue biopsy samples. We indicate that the miRNAs contributing to this system behavior is a disease phenotypic state specific to GBM and is therefore a unique GBM-specific thermodynamic signature. MiRNAs implicated in the regulation of stochastic signaling processes crucial in the hallmarks of human cancer, dominate this GBM-cancer phenotypic state. With this theory, we were able to distinguish with high fidelity GBM patients solely by monitoring the dynamics of miRNAs present in patients' biopsy samples. We anticipate that the GBM-specific thermodynamic signature will provide a critical translational tool in better characterizing cancer types and in the development of future therapeutics for GBM.

  15. Cloud Surprises in Moving NASA EOSDIS Applications into Amazon Web Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mclaughlin, Brett

    2017-01-01

    NASA ESDIS has been moving a variety of data ingest, distribution, and science data processing applications into a cloud environment over the last 2 years. As expected, there have been a number of challenges in migrating primarily on-premises applications into a cloud-based environment, related to architecture and taking advantage of cloud-based services. What was not expected is a number of issues that were beyond purely technical application re-architectures. We ran into surprising network policy limitations, billing challenges in a government-based cost model, and difficulty in obtaining certificates in an NASA security-compliant manner. On the other hand, this approach has allowed us to move a number of applications from local hosting to the cloud in a matter of hours (yes, hours!!), and our CMR application now services 95% of granule searches and an astonishing 99% of all collection searches in under a second. And most surprising of all, well, you'll just have to wait and see the realization that caught our entire team off guard!

  16. Impacts of nutrients and pesticides from small- and large-scale agriculture on the water quality of Lake Ziway, Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teklu, Berhan M.; Hailu, Amare; Wiegant, Daniel A.; Scholten, Bernice S.; Brink, van den Paul J.

    2018-01-01

    The area around Lake Ziway in Ethiopia is going through a major agricultural transformation with both small-scale farmers and large horticultural companies using pesticides and fertilisers at an increased rate. To be able to understand how this influences the water quality of Lake Ziway, water

  17. The Impact of the Demand for Integration in the Large Multi-Business Unit Firm on the IT Organization Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Eric Christopher

    2012-01-01

    Large, multi-business unit firms are decentralizing their overall corporate structures. At the same time, the structures of their IT organizations are becoming more centralized. This is contrary to current wisdom that the IT organization structure will mimic the structure of the corporation, all else being equal. Because the general business…

  18. Estimating the Impact of Large Cigarette Tax Hikes--The Case of Maternal Smoking and Infant Birth Weight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lien, Diana S.; Evans, William

    2005-01-01

    Substantial increases in cigarette taxes result in decrease in smoking by pregnant women. It is also observed that there is consequent improvement in infant birth weight. The conclusions are based on the data from four states that opted to raise cigarette taxes by a large margin.

  19. Impacts of nutrients and pesticides from small- and large-scale agriculture on the water quality of Lake Ziway, Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teklu, Berhan M.; Hailu, Amare; Wiegant, Daniel A.; Scholten, Bernice S.; Brink, van den Paul J.

    2016-01-01

    The area around Lake Ziway in Ethiopia is going through a major agricultural transformation with both small-scale farmers and large horticultural companies using pesticides and fertilisers at an increased rate. To be able to understand how this influences the water quality of Lake Ziway, water

  20. Impact of flood on distribution of bathypelagic perch fry layer along the longitudinal profile of large canyon-shaped reservoir

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Čech, Martin; Kubečka, Jan; Frouzová, Jaroslava; Draštík, Vladislav; Kratochvíl, Michal; Jarošík, Jiří

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 70, č. 4 (2007), s. 1109-1119 ISSN 0022-1112. [Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society /136/. Lake Placid, 10.09.2006-14.09.2006] R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA206/06/1371 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60170517 Keywords : Orlík Reservoir * shoaling * echosounder * cyprinids * Perca fluviatilis * Sander lucioperca Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 1.404, year: 2007

  1. Long-term regional shifts in plant community composition are largely explained by local deer impact experiments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katie Frerker

    Full Text Available The fact that herbivores and predators exert top-down effects to alter community composition and dynamics at lower trophic levels is no longer controversial, yet we still lack evidence of the full nature, extent, and longer-term effects of these impacts. Here, we use results from a set of replicated experiments on the local impacts of white-tailed deer to evaluate the extent to which such impacts could account for half-century shifts in forest plant communities across the upper Midwest, USA. We measured species' responses to deer at four sites using 10-20 year-old deer exclosures. Among common species, eight were more abundant outside the exclosures, seven were commoner inside, and 16 had similar abundances in- and outside. Deer herbivory greatly increased the abundance of ferns and graminoids and doubled the abundance of exotic plants. In contrast, deer greatly reduced tree regeneration, shrub cover (100-200 fold in two species, plant height, plant reproduction, and the abundance of forbs. None of 36 focal species increased in reproduction or grew taller in the presence of deer, contrary to expectations. We compared these results to data on 50-year regional shifts in species abundances across 62 sites. The effects of herbivory by white-tailed deer accurately account for many of the long-term regional shifts observed in species' abundances (R2 = 0.41. These results support the conjecture that deer impacts have driven many of the regional shifts in forest understory cover and composition observed in recent decades. Our ability to link results from shorter-term, local experiments to regional long-term studies of ecological change strengthens the inferences we can draw from both approaches.

  2. Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boit, Alice; Sakschewski, Boris; Boysen, Lena; Cano-Crespo, Ana; Clement, Jan; Garcia-Alaniz, Nashieli; Kok, Kasper; Kolb, Melanie; Langerwisch, Fanny; Rammig, Anja; Sachse, René; van Eupen, Michiel; von Bloh, Werner; Clara Zemp, Delphine; Thonicke, Kirsten

    2016-11-01

    Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio-economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5-6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land-use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land-use expansion is halted by the mid-century. We suggest that constraining land-use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate-change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio-economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Studies of the impact and mitigation of pile-up on large-$R$ and groomed jets in ATLAS at $\\sqrt{s}=7$ TeV

    CERN Document Server

    The ATLAS collaboration

    2012-01-01

    Large radius jets provide one avenue towards efficient reconstruction of massive boosted objects whose decay products are sufficiently collimated so as to make standard reconstruction techniques impractical. The potentially adverse impact of additional proton-proton interactions on such large jets is assessed for a variety of jet types and hadronic final state topologies. The mitigation of these effects via jet grooming algorithms such as trimming, pruning, and filtering is then studied for high transverse momentum jets at $\\sqrt{s}=7$ TeV using an integrated luminosity of 4.7 fb$^{-1}$ collected with the ATLAS detector. A total of 29 jet algorithms and grooming configuration combinations are studied. The application of jet trimming and filtering significantly improves the robustness of large-$R$ jets and reduces their sensitivity to the intense environment of the high-luminosity LHC. The consequence is an overall improvement in the physics potential of searches for heavy boosted objects.

  4. The impact of large structural brain changes in chronic stroke patients on the electric field caused by transcranial brain stimulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Minjoli, Sena; Saturnino, Guilherme B.; Blicher, Jakob Udby

    2017-01-01

    . Realistic head models containing large cortical and subcortical stroke lesions in the right parietal cortex were created using MR images of two patients. For TMS, the electric field of a double coil was simulated using the finite-element method. Systematic variations of the coil position relative...... to the lesion were tested. For TDCS, the finite-element method was used to simulate a standard approach with two electrode pads, and the position of one electrode was systematically varied. For both TMS and TDCS, the lesion caused electric field " hot spots" in the cortex. However, these maxima were......Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) and transcranial direct current stimulation (TDCS) are two types of non-invasive transcranial brain stimulation (TBS). They are useful tools for stroke research and may be potential adjunct therapies for functional recovery. However, stroke often causes large...

  5. The impact of large structural brain changes in chronic stroke patients on the electric field caused by transcranial brain stimulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Minjoli, Sena; Saturnino, Guilherme B.; Blicher, Jakob Udby

    2017-01-01

    Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) and transcranial direct current stimulation (TDCS) are two types of non-invasive transcranial brain stimulation (TBS). They are useful tools for stroke research and may be potential adjunct therapies for functional recovery. However, stroke often causes large...... cerebral lesions, which are commonly accompanied by a secondary enlargement of the ventricles and atrophy. These structural alterations substantially change the conductivity distribution inside the head, which may have potentially important consequences for both brain stimulation methods. We therefore....... Realistic head models containing large cortical and subcortical stroke lesions in the right parietal cortex were created using MR images of two patients. For TMS, the electric field of a double coil was simulated using the finite-element method. Systematic variations of the coil position relative...

  6. Flow and active mixing have a strong impact on bacterial growth dynamics in the proximal large intestine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cremer, Jonas; Segota, Igor; Yang, Chih-Yu; Arnoldini, Markus; Groisman, Alex; Hwa, Terence

    2016-11-01

    More than half of fecal dry weight is bacterial mass with bacterial densities reaching up to 1012 cells per gram. Mostly, these bacteria grow in the proximal large intestine where lateral flow along the intestine is strong: flow can in principal lead to a washout of bacteria from the proximal large intestine. Active mixing by contractions of the intestinal wall together with bacterial growth might counteract such a washout and allow high bacterial densities to occur. As a step towards understanding bacterial growth in the presence of mixing and flow, we constructed an in-vitro setup where controlled wall-deformations of a channel emulate contractions. We investigate growth along the channel under a steady nutrient inflow. Depending on mixing and flow, we observe varying spatial gradients in bacterial density along the channel. Active mixing by deformations of the channel wall is shown to be crucial in maintaining a steady-state bacterial population in the presence of flow. The growth-dynamics is quantitatively captured by a simple mathematical model, with the effect of mixing described by an effective diffusion term. Based on this model, we discuss bacterial growth dynamics in the human large intestine using flow- and mixing-behavior having been observed for humans.

  7. Process parameter impact on properties of sputtered large-area Mo bilayers for CIGS thin film solar cell applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Badgujar, Amol C.; Dhage, Sanjay R., E-mail: dhage@arci.res.in; Joshi, Shrikant V.

    2015-08-31

    Copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) has emerged as a promising candidate for thin film solar cells, with efficiencies approaching those of silicon-based solar cells. To achieve optimum performance in CIGS solar cells, uniform, conductive, stress-free, well-adherent, reflective, crystalline molybdenum (Mo) thin films with preferred orientation (110) are desirable as a back contact on large area glass substrates. The present study focuses on cylindrical rotating DC magnetron sputtered bilayer Mo thin films on 300 mm × 300 mm soda lime glass (SLG) substrates. Key sputtering variables, namely power and Ar gas flow rates, were optimized to achieve best structural, electrical and optical properties. The Mo films were comprehensively characterized and found to possess high degree of thickness uniformity over large area. Best crystallinity, reflectance and sheet resistance was obtained at high sputtering powers and low argon gas flow rates, while mechanical properties like adhesion and residual stress were found to be best at low sputtering power and high argon gas flow rate, thereby indicating a need to arrive at a suitable trade-off during processing. - Highlights: • Sputtering of bilayer molybdenum thin films on soda lime glass • Large area deposition using rotating cylindrical direct current magnetron • Trade of sputter process parameters power and pressure • High uniformity of thickness and best electrical properties obtained • Suitable mechanical and optical properties of molybdenum are achieved for CIGS application.

  8. Health impact and monetary cost of exposure to particulate matter emitted from biomass burning in large cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis Α; Karakitsios, Spyros P; Kermenidou, Marianthi V

    2015-08-15

    The study deals with the assessment of health impact and the respective economic cost attributed to particulate matter (PM) emitted into the atmosphere from biomass burning for space heating, focusing on the differences between the warm and cold seasons in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 in Thessaloniki (Greece). Health impact was assessed based on estimated exposure levels and the use of established WHO concentration-response functions (CRFs) for all-cause mortality, infant mortality, new chronic bronchitis cases, respiratory and cardiac hospital admissions. Monetary cost was based on the valuation of the willingness-to-pay/accept (WTP/WTA), to avoid or compensate for the loss of welfare associated with illness. Results showed that long term mortality during the 2012-2013 winter increased by 200 excess deaths in a city of almost 900,000 inhabitants or 3540 years of life lost, corresponding to an economic cost of almost 200-250m€. New chronic bronchitis cases dominate morbidity estimates (490 additional new cases corresponding to a monetary cost of 30m€). Estimated health and monetary impacts are more severe during the cold season, despite its smaller duration (4 months). Considering that the increased ambient air concentrations (and the integral of outdoor/indoor exposure) are explained by shifting from oil to biomass for domestic heating purposes, several alternative scenarios were evaluated. Policy scenario analysis revealed that significant public health and monetary benefits (up to 2b€ in avoided mortality and 130m€ in avoided illness) might be obtained by limiting the biomass share in the domestic heat energy mix. Fiscal policy affecting fuels/technologies used for domestic heating needs to be reconsidered urgently, since the net tax loss from avoided oil taxation due to reduced consumption was further compounded by the public health cost of increased mid-term morbidity and mortality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Real-time impact of power balancing on power system operation with large scale integration of wind power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Basit, Abdul; Hansen, Anca Daniela; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar

    2017-01-01

    Highly wind power integrated power system requires continuous active power regulation to tackle the power imbalances resulting from the wind power forecast errors. The active power balance is maintained in real-time with the automatic generation control and also from the control room, where...... power system model. The power system model takes the hour-ahead regulating power plan from power balancing model and the generation and power exchange capacities for the year 2020 into account. The real-time impact of power balancing in a highly wind power integrated power system is assessed...

  10. Quantitative analysis on the environmental impact of large-scale water transfer project on water resource area in a changing environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. H. Yan

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The interbasin long-distance water transfer project is key support for the reasonable allocation of water resources in a large-scale area, which can optimize the spatio-temporal change of water resources to secure the amount of water available. Large-scale water transfer projects have a deep influence on ecosystems; besides, global climate change causes uncertainty and additive effect of the environmental impact of water transfer projects. Therefore, how to assess the ecological and environmental impact of megaprojects in both construction and operation phases has triggered a lot of attention. The water-output area of the western route of China's South-North Water Transfer Project was taken as the study area of the present article. According to relevant evaluation principles and on the basis of background analysis, we identified the influencing factors and established the diagnostic index system. The climate-hydrology-ecology coupled simulation model was used to simulate and predict ecological and environmental responses of the water resource area in a changing environment. The emphasis of impact evaluation was placed on the reservoir construction and operation scheduling, representative river corridors and wetlands, natural reserves and the water environment below the dam sites. In the end, an overall evaluation of the comprehensive influence of the project was conducted. The research results were as follows: the environmental impacts of the western route project in the water resource area were concentrated on two aspects: the permanent destruction of vegetation during the phase of dam construction and river impoundment, and the significant influence on the hydrological situation of natural river corridor after the implementation of water extraction. The impact on local climate, vegetation ecology, typical wetlands, natural reserves and the water environment of river basins below the dam sites was small.

  11. Quantitative analysis on the environmental impact of large-scale water transfer project on water resource area in a changing environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, D. H.; Wang, H.; Li, H. H.; Wang, G.; Qin, T. L.; Wang, D. Y.; Wang, L. H.

    2012-08-01

    The interbasin long-distance water transfer project is key support for the reasonable allocation of water resources in a large-scale area, which can optimize the spatio-temporal change of water resources to secure the amount of water available. Large-scale water transfer projects have a deep influence on ecosystems; besides, global climate change causes uncertainty and additive effect of the environmental impact of water transfer projects. Therefore, how to assess the ecological and environmental impact of megaprojects in both construction and operation phases has triggered a lot of attention. The water-output area of the western route of China's South-North Water Transfer Project was taken as the study area of the present article. According to relevant evaluation principles and on the basis of background analysis, we identified the influencing factors and established the diagnostic index system. The climate-hydrology-ecology coupled simulation model was used to simulate and predict ecological and environmental responses of the water resource area in a changing environment. The emphasis of impact evaluation was placed on the reservoir construction and operation scheduling, representative river corridors and wetlands, natural reserves and the water environment below the dam sites. In the end, an overall evaluation of the comprehensive influence of the project was conducted. The research results were as follows: the environmental impacts of the western route project in the water resource area were concentrated on two aspects: the permanent destruction of vegetation during the phase of dam construction and river impoundment, and the significant influence on the hydrological situation of natural river corridor after the implementation of water extraction. The impact on local climate, vegetation ecology, typical wetlands, natural reserves and the water environment of river basins below the dam sites was small.

  12. Vascular legacy: HOPE ADVANCEs to EMPA-REG and LEADER: A Surprising similarity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjay Kalra

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently reported cardiovascular outcome studies on empagliflozin (EMPA-REG and liraglutide (LEADER have spurred interest in this field of diabetology. This commentary compares and contrasts these studies with two equally important outcome trials conducted using blood pressure lowering agents. A comparison with MICROHOPE (using ramipril and ADVANCE (using perindopril + indapamide blood pressure arms throws up interesting facts. The degree of blood pressure lowering, dissociation between cardiovascular and cerebrovascular benefits, and discordance between renal and retinal outcomes are surprisingly similar in these trials, conducted using disparate molecules. The time taken to achieve such benefits is similar for all drugs except empagliflozin. Such discussion helps inform rational and evidence-based choice of therapy and forms the framework for future research.

  13. Probing Critical Point Energies of Transition Metal Dichalcogenides: Surprising Indirect Gap of Single Layer WSe 2

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Chendong

    2015-09-21

    By using a comprehensive form of scanning tunneling spectroscopy, we have revealed detailed quasi-particle electronic structures in transition metal dichalcogenides, including the quasi-particle gaps, critical point energy locations, and their origins in the Brillouin zones. We show that single layer WSe surprisingly has an indirect quasi-particle gap with the conduction band minimum located at the Q-point (instead of K), albeit the two states are nearly degenerate. We have further observed rich quasi-particle electronic structures of transition metal dichalcogenides as a function of atomic structures and spin-orbit couplings. Such a local probe for detailed electronic structures in conduction and valence bands will be ideal to investigate how electronic structures of transition metal dichalcogenides are influenced by variations of local environment.

  14. Probing Critical Point Energies of Transition Metal Dichalcogenides: Surprising Indirect Gap of Single Layer WSe 2

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Chendong; Chen, Yuxuan; Johnson, Amber; Li, Ming-yang; Li, Lain-Jong; Mende, Patrick C.; Feenstra, Randall M.; Shih, Chih Kang

    2015-01-01

    By using a comprehensive form of scanning tunneling spectroscopy, we have revealed detailed quasi-particle electronic structures in transition metal dichalcogenides, including the quasi-particle gaps, critical point energy locations, and their origins in the Brillouin zones. We show that single layer WSe surprisingly has an indirect quasi-particle gap with the conduction band minimum located at the Q-point (instead of K), albeit the two states are nearly degenerate. We have further observed rich quasi-particle electronic structures of transition metal dichalcogenides as a function of atomic structures and spin-orbit couplings. Such a local probe for detailed electronic structures in conduction and valence bands will be ideal to investigate how electronic structures of transition metal dichalcogenides are influenced by variations of local environment.

  15. Surprising judgments about robot drivers: Experiments on rising expectations and blaming humans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Danielson

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available N-Reasons is an experimental Internet survey platform designed to enhance public participation in applied ethics and policy. N-Reasons encourages individuals to generate reasons to support their judgments, and groups to converge on a common set of reasons pro and con various issues.  In the Robot Ethics Survey some of the reasons contributed surprising judgments about autonomous machines. Presented with a version of the trolley problem with an autonomous train as the agent, participants gave unexpected answers, revealing high expectations for the autonomous machine and shifting blame from the automated device to the humans in the scenario. Further experiments with a standard pair of human-only trolley problems refine these results. While showing the high expectations even when no autonomous machine is involved, human bystanders are only blamed in the machine case. A third experiment explicitly aimed at responsibility for driverless cars confirms our findings about shifting blame in the case of autonomous machine agents. We conclude methodologically that both results point to the power of an experimental survey based approach to public participation to explore surprising assumptions and judgments in applied ethics. However, both results also support using caution when interpreting survey results in ethics, demonstrating the importance of qualitative data to provide further context for evaluating judgments revealed by surveys. On the ethics side, the result about shifting blame to humans interacting with autonomous machines suggests caution about the unintended consequences of intuitive principles requiring human responsibility.http://dx.doi.org/10.5324/eip.v9i1.1727

  16. Prevalence of coronary artery disease in Japanese patients with cerebral infarction. Impact of metabolic syndrome and intracranial large artery atherosclerosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoshino, Atsushi; Enomoto, Satoko; Kawahito, Hiroyuki; Nakamura, Takashi; Kurata, Hiroyuki; Nakahara, Yoshifumi; Ijichi, Toshiharu

    2008-01-01

    Patients with cerebral infarction have a high prevalence of asymptomatic coronary artery disease (CAD) and other vascular diseases, but there is a lack of such data for Japanese patients, so the present study investigated the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Japanese patients and determined the predictors of CAD. The study group comprised 104 patients with cerebral infarction who had no history of CVD. All patients underwent coronary computed tomographic angiography, and systematic evaluation was done on the basis of the presence of other vascular diseases, CVD risk markers, and the degree of atherosclerosis. Of the total, 39 patients (37.5%) had CAD, 9 (8.7%) had carotid artery stenosis, 9 (8.7%) had peripheral artery disease of the lower limbs, and 3 (2.9%) had atherosclerotic renal artery stenosis. Multiple regression analysis showed that the presence of CAD was independently associated with metabolic syndrome (odds ratio (OR) 5.008, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.538-16.309; p<0.01) and intracranial large artery atherosclerosis (OR 4.979, 95% CI 1.633-15.183; p<0.01). Japanese patients with cerebral infarction have a high prevalence of CVD, especially asymptomatic CAD. Both metabolic syndrome and intracranial large artery atherosclerosis may be potential predictors for identifying patients with cerebral infarction who are at the highest risk of asymptomatic CAD. (author)

  17. A large impact of tropical biomass burning on CO and CO{sub 2} in the upper troposphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hidekazu Matsueda; Shoichi Taguchi; Hisayuki Y; Inoue & Masao Ishii [Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba-shi (Japan). Geochemical Research Department

    2002-07-01

    A large interannual variation of biomass burning emissions from Southeast Asia is associated with the ENSO events. During 1997/98 and 1994 El Nino years, uncontrolled wildfires of tropical rainforests and peat lands in Indonesia were enlarged due to a long drought. Enhanced CO injection into the upper troposphere from the intense Indonesian fires was clearly observed in the 8-year measurements from a regular flask sampling over the western Pacific using a JAL airliner between Australia and Japan. This airliner observation also revealed that upper tropospheric CO{sub 2} cycle largely changed during the 1997 El Nio year due partly to the biomass burning emissions. Widespread pollution from the biomass burnings in Southeast Asia was simulated using a CO tracer driven by a 3D global chemical transport model. This simulation indicates that tropical deep convections connected to rapid advection by the subtropical jet play a significant role in dispersing biomass-burning emissions from Southeast Asia on a global scale.

  18. Impact of Isothermal Aging and Testing Temperature on Large Flip-Chip BGA Interconnect Mechanical Shock Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Tae-Kyu; Chen, Zhiqiang; Guirguis, Cherif; Akinade, Kola

    2017-10-01

    The stability of solder interconnects in a mechanical shock environment is crucial for large body size flip-chip ball grid array (FCBGA) electronic packages. Additionally, the junction temperature increases with higher electric power condition, which brings the component into an elevated temperature environment, thus introducing another consideration factor for mechanical stability of interconnection joints. Since most of the shock performance data available were produced at room temperature, the effect of elevated temperature is of interest to ensure the reliability of the device in a mechanical shock environment. To achieve a stable␣interconnect in a dynamic shock environment, the interconnections must tolerate mechanical strain, which is induced by the shock wave input and reaches the particular component interconnect joint. In this study, large body size (52.5 × 52.5 mm2) FCBGA components assembled on 2.4-mm-thick boards were tested with various isothermal pre-conditions and testing conditions. With a heating element embedded in the test board, a test temperature range from room temperature to 100°C was established. The effects of elevated temperature on mechanical shock performance were investigated. Failure and degradation mechanisms are identified and discussed based on the microstructure evolution and grain structure transformations.

  19. Assessing the Impact of Forest Change and Climate Variability on Dry Season Runoff by an Improved Single Watershed Approach: A Comparative Study in Two Large Watersheds, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiping Hou

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Extensive studies on hydrological responses to forest change have been published for centuries, yet partitioning the hydrological effects of forest change, climate variability and other factors in a large watershed remains a challenge. In this study, we developed a single watershed approach combining the modified double mass curve (MDMC and the time series multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMAX to separate the impact of forest change, climate variability and other factors on dry season runoff variation in two large watersheds in China. The Zagunao watershed was examined for the deforestation effect, while the Meijiang watershed was examined to study the hydrological impact of reforestation. The key findings are: (1 both deforestation and reforestation led to significant reductions in dry season runoff, while climate variability yielded positive effects in the studied watersheds; (2 the hydrological response to forest change varied over time due to changes in soil infiltration and evapotranspiration after vegetation regeneration; (3 changes of subalpine natural forests produced greater impact on dry season runoff than alteration of planted forests. These findings are beneficial to water resource and forest management under climate change and highlight a better planning of forest operations and management incorporated trade-off between carbon and water in different forests.

  20. Multibiomarker approach in fish to assess the impact of pollution in a large Brazilian river, Paraiba do Sul.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linde-Arias, Ana Rosa; Inácio, Alan F; Novo, Leonardo A; de Alburquerque, Carla; Moreira, Josino C

    2008-12-01

    This article examines the advantages of the use of biomarkers as environmental indicators by applying it to Paraiba do Sul watershed, one of the most important Brazilian water bodies, which is in a critical environmental situation. We use a multibiomarker approach in fish as an integrated strategy to assess the impact of pollution. It comprehends a general biomarker of fish health, the condition factor (CF), and specific biomarkers of contaminant exposure such as metallothionein (MT), acetylcholinesterase (AChE) activity and biliary polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) metabolites. Our results revealed different effects in the fish from diverse locations with varying degrees of pollution. Furthermore, fish located just upstream of the water-treatment plant of the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro has shown to be affected by metals. This study indicates the usefulness of integrating a set of biomarkers to define the effects of anthropogenic inputs in aquatic bodies under complex polluted situations.

  1. The 19 January 2013 windstorm over the North Atlantic: large-scale dynamics and impacts on Iberia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margarida L.R. Liberato

    2014-10-01

    Results show that Gong underwent an explosive development with ‘bomb’ characteristics between the Azores and the Iberian Peninsula, with a deepening rate unusually high for these latitudes. The rapid deepening of Gong was supported by the southerly displacement of the polar jet stream; by a pronounced cyclonic potential vorticity streamer which approached Iberia from northwest; and by the presence of an atmospheric river over the western and central subtropical North Atlantic converging into Gong׳s genesis region and then crossing the Atlantic basin, moving along with the storm towards Iberia. Understanding the dynamics of these high impact extreme events may be of relevance in view of improving extreme forecasts as well as of public awareness, policy making and risk assessment and management of severe weather in Portugal.

  2. Self-reported household impacts of large-scale chemical contamination of the public water supply, Charleston, West Virginia, USA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles P Schade

    Full Text Available A January 2014 industrial accident contaminated the public water supply of approximately 300,000 homes in and near Charleston, West Virginia (USA with low levels of a strongly-smelling substance consisting principally of 4-methylcyclohexane methanol (MCHM. The ensuing state of emergency closed schools and businesses. Hundreds of people sought medical care for symptoms they related to the incident. We surveyed 498 households by telephone to assess the episode's health and economic impact as well as public perception of risk communication by responsible officials. Thirty two percent of households (159/498 reported someone with illness believed to be related to the chemical spill, chiefly dermatological or gastrointestinal symptoms. Respondents experienced more frequent symptoms of psychological distress during and within 30 days of the emergency than 90 days later. Sixty-seven respondent households (13% had someone miss work because of the crisis, missing a median of 3 days of work. Of 443 households reporting extra expenses due to the crisis, 46% spent less than $100, while 10% spent over $500 (estimated average about $206. More than 80% (401/485 households learned of the spill the same day it occurred. More than 2/3 of households complied fully with "do not use" orders that were issued; only 8% reported drinking water against advice. Household assessments of official communications varied by source, with local officials receiving an average "B" rating, whereas some federal and water company communication received a "D" grade. More than 90% of households obtained safe water from distribution centers or stores during the emergency. We conclude that the spill had major economic impact with substantial numbers of individuals reporting incident-related illnesses and psychological distress. Authorities were successful supplying emergency drinking water, but less so with risk communication.

  3. Self-reported household impacts of large-scale chemical contamination of the public water supply, Charleston, West Virginia, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schade, Charles P; Wright, Nasandra; Gupta, Rahul; Latif, David A; Jha, Ayan; Robinson, John

    2015-01-01

    A January 2014 industrial accident contaminated the public water supply of approximately 300,000 homes in and near Charleston, West Virginia (USA) with low levels of a strongly-smelling substance consisting principally of 4-methylcyclohexane methanol (MCHM). The ensuing state of emergency closed schools and businesses. Hundreds of people sought medical care for symptoms they related to the incident. We surveyed 498 households by telephone to assess the episode's health and economic impact as well as public perception of risk communication by responsible officials. Thirty two percent of households (159/498) reported someone with illness believed to be related to the chemical spill, chiefly dermatological or gastrointestinal symptoms. Respondents experienced more frequent symptoms of psychological distress during and within 30 days of the emergency than 90 days later. Sixty-seven respondent households (13%) had someone miss work because of the crisis, missing a median of 3 days of work. Of 443 households reporting extra expenses due to the crisis, 46% spent less than $100, while 10% spent over $500 (estimated average about $206). More than 80% (401/485) households learned of the spill the same day it occurred. More than 2/3 of households complied fully with "do not use" orders that were issued; only 8% reported drinking water against advice. Household assessments of official communications varied by source, with local officials receiving an average "B" rating, whereas some federal and water company communication received a "D" grade. More than 90% of households obtained safe water from distribution centers or stores during the emergency. We conclude that the spill had major economic impact with substantial numbers of individuals reporting incident-related illnesses and psychological distress. Authorities were successful supplying emergency drinking water, but less so with risk communication.

  4. A large-area, spatially continuous assessment of land cover map error and its impact on downstream analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, Lyndon; Chen, Peng; Debats, Stephanie; Evans, Tom; Ferreira, Stefanus; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Ragazzo, Gabrielle; Sheffield, Justin; Wolf, Adam; Wood, Eric; Caylor, Kelly

    2018-01-01

    Land cover maps increasingly underlie research into socioeconomic and environmental patterns and processes, including global change. It is known that map errors impact our understanding of these phenomena, but quantifying these impacts is difficult because many areas lack adequate reference data. We used a highly accurate, high-resolution map of South African cropland to assess (1) the magnitude of error in several current generation land cover maps, and (2) how these errors propagate in downstream studies. We first quantified pixel-wise errors in the cropland classes of four widely used land cover maps at resolutions ranging from 1 to 100 km, and then calculated errors in several representative "downstream" (map-based) analyses, including assessments of vegetative carbon stocks, evapotranspiration, crop production, and household food security. We also evaluated maps' spatial accuracy based on how precisely they could be used to locate specific landscape features. We found that cropland maps can have substantial biases and poor accuracy at all resolutions (e.g., at 1 km resolution, up to ∼45% underestimates of cropland (bias) and nearly 50% mean absolute error (MAE, describing accuracy); at 100 km, up to 15% underestimates and nearly 20% MAE). National-scale maps derived from higher-resolution imagery were most accurate, followed by multi-map fusion products. Constraining mapped values to match survey statistics may be effective at minimizing bias (provided the statistics are accurate). Errors in downstream analyses could be substantially amplified or muted, depending on the values ascribed to cropland-adjacent covers (e.g., with forest as adjacent cover, carbon map error was 200%-500% greater than in input cropland maps, but ∼40% less for sparse cover types). The average locational error was 6 km (600%). These findings provide deeper insight into the causes and potential consequences of land cover map error, and suggest several recommendations for land

  5. The Impact of an Extensive Usage of Controlled Natural Ventilation in the Residential Sector on Large-Scale Energy Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Oropeza-Perez, Ivan

    The energy situation in the world is becoming alarming. The demand of electricity continues to grow whereas the means of production remain limited. In addition, the electricity generation in the world is mostly based on fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas. Only a small share of the total...... to the atmosphere. On the other hand, the efficiency of the end-use energy consumption is also fundamental to decrease the electricity production thus to lower the emission of greenhouse gases. Thereby, the building sector is a very important target because it consumes approximately one quarter of the total annual...... be reflected in the reduction of the electricity production. The objective of the thesis is to show realistic benefits of utilizing natural ventilation at an extensive manner onto large-scale scenarios such as a national scenario by using a model of natural ventilation developed here. To do so, a building...

  6. Evaluation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Impact on Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation in the Atlantic Region in Summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, V. A.; Cherenkova, E. A.

    2018-02-01

    The influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic region in summer for the period of 1950-2015 is investigated. It is shown that the intensification of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with significant changes in sea level pressure anomalies in the main centers of action (over Greenland and the British Isles) occurred while the North Atlantic was cooler. Sea surface temperature anomalies, which are linked to the AMO in the summer season, affect both the NAO index and fluctuations of the Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR) centers of action. The positive (negative) phase of the AMO is characterized by a combination of negative (positive) values of the NAO and EAWR indices. The dominance of the opposite phases of the teleconnection indices in summer during the warm North Atlantic and in its colder period resulted in differences in the regional climate in Europe.

  7. Chemical Control of Black Flies in Large Rivers as an Impact in Agrochemical Residue-Biota Interactions in Water Ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haufe, W.O.

    1981-01-01

    Livestock losses have been an obstacle to economic development of the farming and livestock industry in more northerly areas of Canada until two species of black fly, Simulium arcticum and S. luggeri, outbreaks are controlled effectively. The problem is complicated by its association with an abundance of large rivers and streams. Since effective control of black flies is presently limited to reduction of their breeding sources in flowing water, the managers of Canadian inland waters have been concerned about any major practice of using pesticides as black fly larvicides. Consequently, Canadian inland waters have been subject to continuous monitoring of major drainage systems with special attention to the chlorinated hydrocarbon insecticides. The latest status of residues was published from a Canadian Survey of 333 sampling locations between 1972 and 1975

  8. ASSESSMENT OF SYSTEMATIC CHROMATIC ERRORS THAT IMPACT SUB-1% PHOTOMETRIC PRECISION IN LARGE-AREA SKY SURVEYS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, T. S.; DePoy, D. L.; Marshall, J. L.; Boada, S.; Mondrik, N.; Nagasawa, D. [George P. and Cynthia Woods Mitchell Institute for Fundamental Physics and Astronomy, and Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States); Tucker, D.; Annis, J.; Finley, D. A.; Kent, S.; Lin, H.; Marriner, J.; Wester, W. [Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, P.O. Box 500, Batavia, IL 60510 (United States); Kessler, R.; Scolnic, D. [Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Bernstein, G. M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104 (United States); Burke, D. L.; Rykoff, E. S. [SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Menlo Park, CA 94025 (United States); James, D. J.; Walker, A. R. [Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory, National Optical Astronomy Observatory, Casilla 603, La Serena (Chile); Collaboration: DES Collaboration; and others

    2016-06-01

    Meeting the science goals for many current and future ground-based optical large-area sky surveys requires that the calibrated broadband photometry is both stable in time and uniform over the sky to 1% precision or better. Past and current surveys have achieved photometric precision of 1%–2% by calibrating the survey’s stellar photometry with repeated measurements of a large number of stars observed in multiple epochs. The calibration techniques employed by these surveys only consider the relative frame-by-frame photometric zeropoint offset and the focal plane position-dependent illumination corrections, which are independent of the source color. However, variations in the wavelength dependence of the atmospheric transmission and the instrumental throughput induce source color-dependent systematic errors. These systematic errors must also be considered to achieve the most precise photometric measurements. In this paper, we examine such systematic chromatic errors (SCEs) using photometry from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) as an example. We first define a natural magnitude system for DES and calculate the systematic errors on stellar magnitudes when the atmospheric transmission and instrumental throughput deviate from the natural system. We conclude that the SCEs caused by the change of airmass in each exposure, the change of the precipitable water vapor and aerosol in the atmosphere over time, and the non-uniformity of instrumental throughput over the focal plane can be up to 2% in some bandpasses. We then compare the calculated SCEs with the observed DES data. For the test sample data, we correct these errors using measurements of the atmospheric transmission and instrumental throughput from auxiliary calibration systems. The residual after correction is less than 0.3%. Moreover, we calculate such SCEs for Type Ia supernovae and elliptical galaxies and find that the chromatic errors for non-stellar objects are redshift-dependent and can be larger than those for

  9. Artificial deepening of seasonal waterholes in eastern Cambodia: impact on water retention and use by large ungulates and waterbirds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas N.E. Gray

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Natural seasonal waterholes (trapeang in Khmer are an important feature of the deciduous dipterocarp forests of eastern Cambodia and are utilised by a number of globally threatened species of large ungulates and waterbirds. However at the end of the dry-season (April only a small proportion of waterholes retain water. In 2011, we artificially deepened six waterholes in the core area of Mondulkiri Protected Forest, eastern Cambodia, removing 3m3 to 24m3 of earth (mean 16.5m3 from each.  Surveys prior to deepening demonstrated that only one of these waterholes, and 10% of all waterholes surveyed in the study area (n=50, held water at the end of the dry-season.  Following modification five of the six deepened waterholes (83% held water at the end of the subsequent dry-season. From four camera traps over 448 trap-nights, 23 species including two globally threatened large ungulates, Banteng Bos javanicus and Eld’s Deer Rucervus eldii, and two Critically Endangered Ibises (Giant Thaumatibis gigantea and White-shouldered Ibis Pseudibis davisoni, were photographed foraging and drinking at the deepened waterholes between March and June 2012.  Our results suggest that artificial deepening of natural waterholes does not cause damage, and makes these waterholes suitable for use throughout the dry-season.  In the face of changing climate it is suggested that management plans should have a programme for the survey and determination of the status of waterholes every year and improve the use of water resources by artificial deepening. 

  10. Assessment of Systematic Chromatic Errors that Impact Sub-1% Photometric Precision in Large-Area Sky Surveys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, T. S. [et al.

    2016-05-27

    Meeting the science goals for many current and future ground-based optical large-area sky surveys requires that the calibrated broadband photometry is stable in time and uniform over the sky to 1% precision or better. Past surveys have achieved photometric precision of 1-2% by calibrating the survey's stellar photometry with repeated measurements of a large number of stars observed in multiple epochs. The calibration techniques employed by these surveys only consider the relative frame-by-frame photometric zeropoint offset and the focal plane position-dependent illumination corrections, which are independent of the source color. However, variations in the wavelength dependence of the atmospheric transmission and the instrumental throughput induce source color-dependent systematic errors. These systematic errors must also be considered to achieve the most precise photometric measurements. In this paper, we examine such systematic chromatic errors using photometry from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) as an example. We define a natural magnitude system for DES and calculate the systematic errors on stellar magnitudes, when the atmospheric transmission and instrumental throughput deviate from the natural system. We conclude that the systematic chromatic errors caused by the change of airmass in each exposure, the change of the precipitable water vapor and aerosol in the atmosphere over time, and the non-uniformity of instrumental throughput over the focal plane, can be up to 2% in some bandpasses. We compare the calculated systematic chromatic errors with the observed DES data. For the test sample data, we correct these errors using measurements of the atmospheric transmission and instrumental throughput. The residual after correction is less than 0.3%. We also find that the errors for non-stellar objects are redshift-dependent and can be larger than those for stars at certain redshifts.

  11. Using a detailed inventory of a large wastewater treatment plant to estimate the relative importance of construction to the overall environmental impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morera, Serni; Corominas, Lluís; Rigola, Miquel; Poch, Manel; Comas, Joaquim

    2017-10-01

    The aim of this work is to quantify the relative contribution to the overall environmental impact of the construction phase compared to the operational phase for a large conventional activated sludge wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). To estimate these environmental impacts, a systematic procedure was designed to obtain the detailed Life Cycle Inventories (LCI) for civil works and equipment, taking as starting point the construction project budget and the list of equipment installed at the Girona WWTP, which are the most reliable information sources of materials and resources used during the construction phase. A detailed inventory is conducted by including 45 materials for civil works and 1,240 devices for the equipment. For most of the impact categories and different life spans of the WWTP, the contribution of the construction phase to the overall burden is higher than 5% and, especially for metal depletion, the impact of construction reaches 63%. When comparing to the WWTP inventories available in Ecoinvent the share of construction obtained in this work is about 3 times smaller for climate change and twice higher for metal depletion. Concrete and reinforcing steel are the materials with the highest contribution to the civil works phase and motors, pumps and mobile and transport equipment are also key equipment to consider during life cycle inventories of WWTPs. Additional robust inventories for similar WWTP can leverage this work by applying the factors (kg of materials and energy per m 3 of treated water) and guidance provided. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Multibiomarker approach in fish to assess the impact of pollution in a large Brazilian river, Paraiba do Sul

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linde-Arias, Ana Rosa; Inacio, Alan F.; Novo, Leonardo A.; Alburquerque, Carla de; Moreira, Josino C.

    2008-01-01

    This article examines the advantages of the use of biomarkers as environmental indicators by applying it to Paraiba do Sul watershed, one of the most important Brazilian water bodies, which is in a critical environmental situation. We use a multibiomarker approach in fish as an integrated strategy to assess the impact of pollution. It comprehends a general biomarker of fish health, the condition factor (CF), and specific biomarkers of contaminant exposure such as metallothionein (MT), acetylcholinesterase (AChE) activity and biliary polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) metabolites. Our results revealed different effects in the fish from diverse locations with varying degrees of pollution. Furthermore, fish located just upstream of the water-treatment plant of the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro has shown to be affected by metals. This study indicates the usefulness of integrating a set of biomarkers to define the effects of anthropogenic inputs in aquatic bodies under complex polluted situations. - Integrated approach using biomarkers proofs suitable for environmental assessment of a diversely polluted river

  13. The longitudinal impact of patient navigation on equity in colorectal cancer screening in a large primary care network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Percac-Lima, Sanja; López, Lenny; Ashburner, Jeffrey M; Green, Alexander R; Atlas, Steven J

    2014-07-01

    The long-term effects of interventions to improve colorectal (CRC) screening in vulnerable populations are uncertain. The authors evaluated the impact of patient navigation (PN) on the equity of CRC prevention over a 5-year period. A culturally tailored CRC screening PN program was implemented in 1 community health center (CHC) in 2007. In a primary care network, CRC screening rates from 2006 to 2010 among eligible patients from the CHC with PN were compared with the rates from other practices without PN. Multivariable logistic regression models for repeated measures were used to assess differences over time. Differences in CRC screening rates diminished among patients at the CHC with PN and at other practices between 2006 (49.2% vs 62.5%, respectively; P practices (5% vs 3.4% per year; P practices, lower CRC screening rates in 2006 (47.5% vs 52.1%, respectively; P = .02) were higher by 2010 (73.5% vs 67.3%, respectively; P practices in 2006 (44.3% vs 44.7%, respectively; P = .79) were higher at the CHC by 2010 (70.6% vs 58.6%, respectively; P practices (both P < .001). A PN program increased CRC screening rates in a CHC and improved equity in vulnerable patients. Long-term funding of PN programs has the potential to reduce cancer screening disparities. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

  14. Dynamics and fates of trace metals chronically input in a Mediterranean coastal zone impacted by a large urban area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oursel, B; Garnier, C; Durrieu, G; Mounier, S; Omanović, D; Lucas, Y

    2013-04-15

    Quantification and characterization of chronic inputs of trace metals and organic carbon in a coastal Mediterranean area (the city of Marseille) during the dry season was carried out. The 625 km(2) watershed includes two small coastal rivers whose waters are mixed with treated wastewater (TWW) just before their outlet into the sea. Dissolved and particulate Cu, Pb, Cd, Zn, Co, Ni and organic carbon concentrations in the rivers were comparable to those in other Mediterranean coastal areas, whereas at the outlet, 2- to 18-fold higher concentrations reflected the impact of the TWW. A non-conservative behavior observed for most of the studied metals in the mixing zone was validated by a remobilization experiment performed in the laboratory. The results showed that sorption/desorption processes could occur with slow kinetics with respect to the mixing time in the plume, indicating non-equilibrium in the dissolved/particulate metal distribution. Thus, a sample filtration immediately after sampling is strictly required. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Testing DNA barcode performance in 1000 species of European lepidoptera: large geographic distances have small genetic impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huemer, Peter; Mutanen, Marko; Sefc, Kristina M; Hebert, Paul D N

    2014-01-01

    This study examines the performance of DNA barcodes (mt cytochrome c oxidase 1 gene) in the identification of 1004 species of Lepidoptera shared by two localities (Finland, Austria) that are 1600 km apart. Maximum intraspecific distances for the pooled data were less than 2% for 880 species (87.6%), while deeper divergence was detected in 124 species. Despite such variation, the overall DNA barcode library possessed diagnostic COI sequences for 98.8% of the taxa. Because a reference library based on Finnish specimens was highly effective in identifying specimens from Austria, we conclude that barcode libraries based on regional sampling can often be effective for a much larger area. Moreover, dispersal ability (poor, good) and distribution patterns (disjunct, fragmented, continuous, migratory) had little impact on levels of intraspecific geographic divergence. Furthermore, the present study revealed that, despite the intensity of past taxonomic work on European Lepidoptera, nearly 20% of the species shared by Austria and Finland require further work to clarify their status. Particularly discordant BIN (Barcode Index Number) cases should be checked to ascertain possible explanatory factors such as incorrect taxonomy, hybridization, introgression, and Wolbachia infections.

  16. Testing DNA barcode performance in 1000 species of European lepidoptera: large geographic distances have small genetic impacts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Huemer

    Full Text Available This study examines the performance of DNA barcodes (mt cytochrome c oxidase 1 gene in the identification of 1004 species of Lepidoptera shared by two localities (Finland, Austria that are 1600 km apart. Maximum intraspecific distances for the pooled data were less than 2% for 880 species (87.6%, while deeper divergence was detected in 124 species. Despite such variation, the overall DNA barcode library possessed diagnostic COI sequences for 98.8% of the taxa. Because a reference library based on Finnish specimens was highly effective in identifying specimens from Austria, we conclude that barcode libraries based on regional sampling can often be effective for a much larger area. Moreover, dispersal ability (poor, good and distribution patterns (disjunct, fragmented, continuous, migratory had little impact on levels of intraspecific geographic divergence. Furthermore, the present study revealed that, despite the intensity of past taxonomic work on European Lepidoptera, nearly 20% of the species shared by Austria and Finland require further work to clarify their status. Particularly discordant BIN (Barcode Index Number cases should be checked to ascertain possible explanatory factors such as incorrect taxonomy, hybridization, introgression, and Wolbachia infections.

  17. Multibiomarker approach in fish to assess the impact of pollution in a large Brazilian river, Paraiba do Sul

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linde-Arias, Ana Rosa [Laboratorio de Toxicologia, Centro de Estudos da Saude do Trabalhador e Ecologia Humana, Escola Nacional de Saude Publica Sergio Arouca, Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz, Leopoldo Bulhoes, 1480, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)], E-mail: arlinde@ensp.fiocruz.br; Inacio, Alan F.; Novo, Leonardo A.; Alburquerque, Carla de; Moreira, Josino C. [Laboratorio de Toxicologia, Centro de Estudos da Saude do Trabalhador e Ecologia Humana, Escola Nacional de Saude Publica Sergio Arouca, Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz, Leopoldo Bulhoes, 1480, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

    2008-12-15

    This article examines the advantages of the use of biomarkers as environmental indicators by applying it to Paraiba do Sul watershed, one of the most important Brazilian water bodies, which is in a critical environmental situation. We use a multibiomarker approach in fish as an integrated strategy to assess the impact of pollution. It comprehends a general biomarker of fish health, the condition factor (CF), and specific biomarkers of contaminant exposure such as metallothionein (MT), acetylcholinesterase (AChE) activity and biliary polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) metabolites. Our results revealed different effects in the fish from diverse locations with varying degrees of pollution. Furthermore, fish located just upstream of the water-treatment plant of the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro has shown to be affected by metals. This study indicates the usefulness of integrating a set of biomarkers to define the effects of anthropogenic inputs in aquatic bodies under complex polluted situations. - Integrated approach using biomarkers proofs suitable for environmental assessment of a diversely polluted river.

  18. Impact of energy efficiency measures on the CO{sub 2} emissions in the residential sector, a large scale analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hens, H.; Verbeeck, G.; Verdonck, B. [Department of Civil Engineering, Laboratory for Building Physics, Leuven (Belgium)

    2000-07-01

    Like all industrialised countries, Belgium accepted to diminish its greenhouse gas emissions in the frame of the Kyoto agreement. On top of the list figures CO{sub 2}. A major emission source for CO{sub 2} is burning fossil fuels. As the residential sector accounts for 28% of the country's annual energy consumption and as this consumption mainly concerns fossil fuels, it has an equally important share in the CO{sub 2} release. Hence, at first sight, the best policy for a decrease is by improving the energy efficiency. The question to be solved, however, is which improvement could generate the reduction needed? This study discusses a methodology and comments simulations that help in answering that question. The results are not as simple as one should like. The housing stock in fact acts as a conservatory system. For the case being, the impact of energy efficient new construction on the CO{sub 2} release remains quite marginal if the period considered does not extend beyond a decade. The effect becomes significant only over a longer period, on condition that more stringent energy efficiency measures are combined with a shift from new construction to retrofit and reconstruction. Also a diminishing increase in the number of households may help in reducing energy consumption and CO{sub 2} release. (author)

  19. Large wood, sediment, and flow regimes: Their interactions and temporal changes caused by human impacts in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Futoshi; Seo, Jung Il; Akasaka, Takumi; Swanson, Frederick J.

    2017-02-01

    Water, sediment, and large wood (LW) are the three key components of dynamic river-floodplain ecosystems. We examined variations in sediment and LW discharge with respect to precipitation, the presence of dams, land and river use change, and related channel incision and forest expansion on gravel bars and floodplains across Japan. The results indicated that unit sediment discharge and unit LW discharge were smaller in southern Japan where precipitation intensity is generally much greater. Effective precipitation, an index that takes current and antecedent precipitation into account, was a strong predictor of discharge in small watersheds, but not in larger watersheds. However, precipitation intensities related to unit sediment discharge in intermediate and large watersheds were smaller than those associated with unit LW discharge, which we attribute to differences in particle shape and size and also transport mechanisms. The relationship between river flow and discharge of sediment and LW lead us to posit that discharges of these components are supply limited in southern Japan and transport limited in northern Japan. The cross-sectional mean low-flow bed elevation of gravel-bed and sand-bed rivers in Japan decreased by 0.71 and 0.74 m on average, respectively, over the period 1960-2000. Forest expansion on bars and floodplains has been prominent since the 1990s, and trees apparently began to colonize gravel bars 10 to 20 years after riverbed degradation began. Forest recovery in headwater basins, dam construction, gravel mining, and channelization over the past half century are likely the dominant factors that significantly reduced downstream sediment delivery, thereby promoting channel incision and forest expansion. Changes in rivers and floodplains associated with channel incision and forest expansion alter the assemblages of aquatic and terrestrial organisms in riverine landscapes of Japan, and climate change may contribute to this change by intensified

  20. Forecasting the Socio-Economic Impact of the Large Hadron Collider: a Cost-Benefit Analysis to 2025 and Beyond

    CERN Document Server

    Florio, Massimo; Sirtori, Emanuela

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we develop a cost-benefit analysis of a major research infrastructure, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), the highest-energy accelerator in the world, currently operating at CERN. We show that the evaluation of benefits can be made quantitative by estimating their welfare effects on different types of agents. Four classes of direct benefits are identified, according to the main social groups involved: (a) scientists; (b) students and young researchers; (c) firms in the procurement chain and other organizations; (d) the general public, including onsite and website visitors and other media users. These benefits are respectively related to the knowledge output of scientists; human capital formation; technological spillovers; and direct cultural effects for the general public. Welfare effects for taxpayers can also be estimated by the contingent valuation of the willingness to pay for a pure public good for which there is no specific direct use (i.e., as non-use value). Using a Monte Carlo approach, w...

  1. Assessing the Impact of Urbanization on Direct Runoff Using Improved Composite CN Method in a Large Urban Area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Shi, Tuo; Zong, Min; Walter, M Todd

    2018-04-17

    Urbanization is one of the most widespread anthropogenic activities, which brings a range of physical and biochemical changes to hydrological system and processes. Increasing direct runoff caused by land use change has become a major challenge for urban ecological security. Reliable prediction of the quantity and rate of surface runoff is an inherently difficult and time-consuming task for large ungauged urban areas. In this study, we combined Geographic Information System and remote sensing technology with an improved Soil Conservation Service curve number model to evaluate the effects of land use change on direct runoff volume of the four-ring area in Shenyang, China, and analyzed trends of direct runoff at different scales. Through analyzing trends of direct runoff from 1984 to 2015 at different scales, we explored how urbanization and other potential factors affect direct runoff changes. Total direct runoff volume increased over time, and trends varied from the inner urban area to suburban area. Zones 1 and 2 had a tendency toward decreasing direct runoff volume and risks, while Zones 3 and 4 showed gradual increases at both regional and pixel scales. The most important influence on direct runoff change was urban surface change caused by urbanization. This study presents a framework for identifying hotspots of runoff increase, which can provide important guidance to urban managers in future green infrastructure planning, in the hopes of improving the security of urban water ecological patterns.

  2. How does market power affect the impact of large scale wind investment in 'energy only' wholesale electricity markets?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Browne, Oliver; Poletti, Stephen; Young, David

    2015-01-01

    In the short run, it is well known that increasing wind penetration is likely to reduce spot market electricity prices due to the merit order effect. The long run effect is less clear because there will be a change in new capacity investment in response to the wind penetration. In this paper we examine the interaction between capacity investment, wind penetration and market power by first using a least-cost generation expansion model to simulate capacity investment with increasing amounts of wind generation, and then using a computer agent-based model to predict electricity prices in the presence of market power. We find the degree to which firms are able to exercise market power depends critically on the ratio of capacity to peak demand. For our preferred long run generation scenario we show market power increases for some periods as wind penetration increases however the merit order counteracts this with the results that prices overall remain flat. Returns to peakers increase significantly as wind penetration increases. The market power in turn leads to inefficient dispatch which is exacerbated with large amounts of wind generation. - Highlights: • Increasing investment in wind generation is analyzed using an agent based model. • In an energy only market, increased total capacity reduces market power. • Increasing wind penetration results in more market power in some periods. • Market power causes dispatch inefficiencies, which grow as wind capacity increases.

  3. Assessing the Impact of Urbanization on Direct Runoff Using Improved Composite CN Method in a Large Urban Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Shi, Tuo; Zong, Min; Walter, M. Todd

    2018-01-01

    Urbanization is one of the most widespread anthropogenic activities, which brings a range of physical and biochemical changes to hydrological system and processes. Increasing direct runoff caused by land use change has become a major challenge for urban ecological security. Reliable prediction of the quantity and rate of surface runoff is an inherently difficult and time-consuming task for large ungauged urban areas. In this study, we combined Geographic Information System and remote sensing technology with an improved Soil Conservation Service curve number model to evaluate the effects of land use change on direct runoff volume of the four-ring area in Shenyang, China, and analyzed trends of direct runoff at different scales. Through analyzing trends of direct runoff from 1984 to 2015 at different scales, we explored how urbanization and other potential factors affect direct runoff changes. Total direct runoff volume increased over time, and trends varied from the inner urban area to suburban area. Zones 1 and 2 had a tendency toward decreasing direct runoff volume and risks, while Zones 3 and 4 showed gradual increases at both regional and pixel scales. The most important influence on direct runoff change was urban surface change caused by urbanization. This study presents a framework for identifying hotspots of runoff increase, which can provide important guidance to urban managers in future green infrastructure planning, in the hopes of improving the security of urban water ecological patterns. PMID:29673182

  4. The Impact of Drug Metabolism Gene Polymorphisms on Therapeutic Response and Survival in Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pál, Ildikó; Illés, Árpád; Gergely, Lajos; Pál, Tibor; Radnay, Zita; Szekanecz, Zoltán; Zilahi, Erika; Váróczy, László

    2018-04-01

    Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) accounts for 30% of all non-Hodgkin lymphomas (NHL) and 80% of agressive lymphomas. Besides the traditional International Prognostic Index (IPI), some other factors may also influence the prognosis of DLBCL patients. To study how the genetic polymorphisms in the metabolic pathway influence the event-free and overall survivals and therapeutic responses in DLBCL. The study was comprised of 51 patients (32 men, 19 women). The average age was 53.1 years. DLBCL was diagnosed between 2011 and 2016 and the average follow-up time was 3.78 years. These patients received 1-8 cycles (an average of 6.2 cycles) of rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristin, prednisolon (R-CHOP) immunochemotherapy. Real-time polymerase chain reaction was used to determine the genetic polymorphisms of CYP2E1, GSTP1, NAT1, and NAT2 genes. Our results showed that the polymorphisms of CYP2E1, GSTP1, and NAT1 genes did not influence the prognosis of DLBCL patients significantly. In terms of the NAT2 gene, GG homozygous patients showed slightly better therapeutic response and survival results compared to those bearing an A allele; however, the differences were not statistically significant. Our results could not confirm that genetic polymorphism in metabolic pathways has any predictive role in DLBCL.

  5. Impacts of nutrients and pesticides from small- and large-scale agriculture on the water quality of Lake Ziway, Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teklu, Berhan M; Hailu, Amare; Wiegant, Daniel A; Scholten, Bernice S; Van den Brink, Paul J

    2018-05-01

    The area around Lake Ziway in Ethiopia is going through a major agricultural transformation with both small-scale farmers and large horticultural companies using pesticides and fertilisers at an increased rate. To be able to understand how this influences the water quality of Lake Ziway, water quality data was gathered to study the dynamics of pesticide concentrations and physicochemical parameters for the years from 2009 to 2015. Results indicate that for some physicochemical parameters, including pH, potassium and iron, over 50 % of the values were above the maximum permissible limit of the Ethiopian standard for drinking water. The fungicide spiroxamine poses a high chronic risk when the water is used for drinking water, while the estimated intake of diazinon was approximately 50 % of the acceptable daily intake. Higher-tier risk assessment indicated that the fungicide spiroxamine poses a high acute risk to aquatic organisms, while possible acute risks were indicated for the insecticides deltamethrin and endosulfan. Longer-term monitoring needs to be established to show the water quality changes across time and space, and the current study can be used as a baseline measurement for further research in the area as well as an example for other surface water systems in Ethiopia and Africa.

  6. The Oslo Health Study: The impact of self-selection in a large, population-based survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bjertness Espen

    2004-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Research on health equity which mainly utilises population-based surveys, may be hampered by serious selection bias due to a considerable number of invitees declining to participate. Sufficient information from all the non-responders is rarely available to quantify this bias. Predictors of attendance, magnitude and direction of non-response bias in prevalence estimates and association measures, are investigated based on information from all 40 888 invitees to the Oslo Health Study. Methods The analyses were based on linkage between public registers in Statistics Norway and the Oslo Health Study, a population-based survey conducted in 2000/2001 inviting all citizens aged 30, 40, 45, 59–60 and 75–76 years. Attendance was 46%. Weighted analyses, logistic regression and sensitivity analyses are performed to evaluate possible selection bias. Results The response rate was positively associated with age, educational attendance, total income, female gender, married, born in a Western county, living in the outer city residential regions and not receiving disability benefit. However, self-rated health, smoking, BMI and mental health (HCSL in the attendees differed only slightly from estimated prevalence values in the target population when weighted by the inverse of the probability of attendance. Observed values differed only moderately provided that the non-attending individuals differed from those attending by no more than 50%. Even though persons receiving disability benefit had lower attendance, the associations between disability and education, residential region and marital status were found to be unbiased. The association between country of birth and disability benefit was somewhat more evident among attendees. Conclusions Self-selection according to sociodemographic variables had little impact on prevalence estimates. As indicated by disability benefit, unhealthy persons attended to a lesser degree than healthy individuals

  7. The Oslo Health Study: The impact of self-selection in a large, population-based survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Søgaard, Anne Johanne; Selmer, Randi; Bjertness, Espen; Thelle, Dag

    2004-01-01

    Background Research on health equity which mainly utilises population-based surveys, may be hampered by serious selection bias due to a considerable number of invitees declining to participate. Sufficient information from all the non-responders is rarely available to quantify this bias. Predictors of attendance, magnitude and direction of non-response bias in prevalence estimates and association measures, are investigated based on information from all 40 888 invitees to the Oslo Health Study. Methods The analyses were based on linkage between public registers in Statistics Norway and the Oslo Health Study, a population-based survey conducted in 2000/2001 inviting all citizens aged 30, 40, 45, 59–60 and 75–76 years. Attendance was 46%. Weighted analyses, logistic regression and sensitivity analyses are performed to evaluate possible selection bias. Results The response rate was positively associated with age, educational attendance, total income, female gender, married, born in a Western county, living in the outer city residential regions and not receiving disability benefit. However, self-rated health, smoking, BMI and mental health (HCSL) in the attendees differed only slightly from estimated prevalence values in the target population when weighted by the inverse of the probability of attendance. Observed values differed only moderately provided that the non-attending individuals differed from those attending by no more than 50%. Even though persons receiving disability benefit had lower attendance, the associations between disability and education, residential region and marital status were found to be unbiased. The association between country of birth and disability benefit was somewhat more evident among attendees. Conclusions Self-selection according to sociodemographic variables had little impact on prevalence estimates. As indicated by disability benefit, unhealthy persons attended to a lesser degree than healthy individuals, but social inequality in

  8. Quantifying the Impact of Immediate Reconstruction in Postmastectomy Radiation: A Large, Dose-Volume Histogram-Based Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ohri, Nisha [Department of Radiation Oncology, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Cordeiro, Peter G. [Department of Plastic Surgery, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Keam, Jennifer [Department of Radiation Oncology, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Ballangrud, Ase [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Shi Weiji; Zhang Zhigang [Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Nerbun, Claire T.; Woch, Katherine M.; Stein, Nicholas F.; Zhou Ying [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); McCormick, Beryl; Powell, Simon N. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Ho, Alice Y., E-mail: HoA1234@mskcc.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States)

    2012-10-01

    Purpose: To assess the impact of immediate breast reconstruction on postmastectomy radiation (PMRT) using dose-volume histogram (DVH) data. Methods and Materials: Two hundred forty-seven women underwent PMRT at our center, 196 with implant reconstruction and 51 without reconstruction. Patients with reconstruction were treated with tangential photons, and patients without reconstruction were treated with en-face electron fields and customized bolus. Twenty percent of patients received internal mammary node (IMN) treatment. The DVH data were compared between groups. Ipsilateral lung parameters included V20 (% volume receiving 20 Gy), V40 (% volume receiving 40 Gy), mean dose, and maximum dose. Heart parameters included V25 (% volume receiving 25 Gy), mean dose, and maximum dose. IMN coverage was assessed when applicable. Chest wall coverage was assessed in patients with reconstruction. Propensity-matched analysis adjusted for potential confounders of laterality and IMN treatment. Results: Reconstruction was associated with lower lung V20, mean dose, and maximum dose compared with no reconstruction (all P<.0001). These associations persisted on propensity-matched analysis (all P<.0001). Heart doses were similar between groups (P=NS). Ninety percent of patients with reconstruction had excellent chest wall coverage (D95 >98%). IMN coverage was superior in patients with reconstruction (D95 >92.0 vs 75.7%, P<.001). IMN treatment significantly increased lung and heart parameters in patients with reconstruction (all P<.05) but minimally affected those without reconstruction (all P>.05). Among IMN-treated patients, only lower lung V20 in those without reconstruction persisted (P=.022), and mean and maximum heart doses were higher than in patients without reconstruction (P=.006, P=.015, respectively). Conclusions: Implant reconstruction does not compromise the technical quality of PMRT when the IMNs are untreated. Treatment technique, not reconstruction, is the primary

  9. Migration and rural women in China: a look at the gendered impact of large-scale migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davin, D

    1996-01-01

    This preliminary study explored the impact on women of economic migration from rural to urban areas in China. Data were obtained from the 1990 census. The study focused on economic migration, which accounted for 29% of the reasons for moving. In some provinces such as Guangdong, economic reasons account for almost 60% of in-migrants. Interprovincial migration is primarily economic, followed by marriage, which varies widely by province. Migrants tend to assume occupations that are assigned by gender. Male migrants tend to outnumber female migrants, and women are left to farm. Where migration is gender balanced, the sex ratio in the sending area may be stable, but gender division within individual households is upset. Children may be tended by grandparents in rural areas, when their parents find work in cities. Migrants in urban areas do not have the same rights as permanent urban household registrants and cannot send their children to school or use free or low cost health care. Migrants keep in close contact with home villages. Urban migrants without permanent household registration status face the loss of welfare benefits in urban areas as well as the high cost of purchase of a permanent residence permit, social discrimination, stigma from mass media portrayals, and poor housing. Most rural-urban migration is circular. Female return migrants bring back cash remittances and new family roles and status. Rural migrants are exposed to new urban experiences that are retold in rural areas and that may pose difficulties in readjustment to the hardships of rural life. Urban fertility is delayed and lower than that of rural fertility.

  10. Biological Subtype Predicts Risk of Locoregional Recurrence After Mastectomy and Impact of Postmastectomy Radiation in a Large National Database

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tseng, Yolanda D., E-mail: ydt2@uw.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (United States); Uno, Hajime [Department of Biostatistics and Computational Biology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Hughes, Melissa E. [Department of Medical Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Niland, Joyce C. [Department of Biostatistics, City of Hope Comprehensive Cancer Center, Duarte, California (United States); Wong, Yu-Ning [Department of Medical Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Theriault, Richard [Department of General Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Blitzblau, Rachel C. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Moy, Beverly [Division of Hematology/Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Breslin, Tara [Division of Surgical Oncology, Department of Surgery, Northwestern Lake Forest Hospital, Lake Forest, Illinois (United States); Edge, Stephen B. [Baptist Cancer Center, Memphis, Tennessee (United States); Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, Tennessee (United States); Hassett, Michael J. [Department of Medical Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Punglia, Rinaa S. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States)

    2015-11-01

    Purpose: To evaluate locoregional recurrence (LRR) after mastectomy and impact of postmastectomy radiation (PMRT) by breast cancer subtype. Methods and Materials: Between 2000 and 2009, 5673 patients with stage I to III breast carcinoma underwent mastectomy and nodal evaluation; 30% received PMRT. Isolated LRR (iLRR) and LRR were compared across groups defined by biological subtype and receipt of trastuzumab: luminal A (estrogen [ER]/progesterone [PR]+, HER2−, low/intermediate grade), luminal B (ER/PR+, HER2−, high grade), HER2 with trastuzumab, HER2 without trastuzumab, and triple negative (TN; ER−, PR−, HER2−). LRR hazard ratios (HR) were estimated with multivariable Fine and Gray models. The effect of PMRT on LRR was evaluated with Fine and Gray models stratified by propensity for PMRT. Results: With a median follow-up time of 50.1 months, there were 19 iLRR and 109 LRR events. HER2 patients with trastuzumab had no iLRR and only a single LRR. Compared with luminal A patients, TN patients had significantly greater adjusted risk of iLRR (HR 14.10; 95% CI 2.97%-66.90%), with a similar trend among luminal B (HR 4.94; 95% CI 0.94%-25.82%) and HER2 patients without trastuzumab (HR 4.41; 95% CI 0.61%-32.11%). Although PMRT reduced LRR, the effect of PMRT varied by subgroup, with the greatest and smallest effects seen among luminal A (HR 0.17; 95% CI 0.05%-0.62%) and TN patients (HR 0.59; 95% CI 0.25%-1.35%), respectively. Conclusions: TN patients had the highest risk of LRR and the least benefit from PMRT; these patients may benefit from alternative treatment strategies. In contrast, in the era of HER2-directed therapy, the role of local therapy may need to be reassessed among HER2 patients.

  11. Use of Nonantiretroviral Medications That May Impact Neurocognition: Patterns and Predictors in a Large, Long-Term HIV Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radtke, Kendra K; Bacchetti, Peter; Anastos, Kathryn; Merenstein, Daniel; Crystal, Howard; Karim, Roksana; Weber, Kathleen M; Edmonds, Andrew; Sheth, Anandi N; Fischl, Margaret A; Vance, David; Greenblatt, Ruth M; Rubin, Leah H

    2018-06-01

    Neurocognitive impairment is a frequent and often disabling comorbidity of HIV infection. In addition to antiretroviral therapies, individuals with HIV infection may commonly use nonantiretroviral medications that are known to cause neurocognitive adverse effects (NC-AE). The contribution of NC-AE to neurocognitive impairment is rarely considered in the context of HIV and could explain part of the variability in neurocognitive performance among individuals with HIV. Women's Interagency HIV Study, a prospective, multisite, observational study of US women with and without HIV. After a literature review, 79 medications (excluding statins) with NC-AE were identified and reported by Women's Interagency HIV Study participants. We examined factors associated with self-reported use of these medications over a 10-year period. Generalized estimating equations for binary outcomes were used to assess sociodemographic, behavioral, and clinical characteristics associated with NC-AE medication use. Three thousand three hundred women (71% with HIV) and data from ∼42,000 visits were studied. HIV infection was associated with NC-AE medication use (odds ratio = 1.52; 95% confidence interval: 1.35 to 1.71). After adjustment for HIV infection status, other predictors of NC-AE medication use included having health insurance, elevated depressive symptoms, prior clinical AIDS, noninjection recreational drug use, and an annual household income of <$12,000 (Ps < 0.004). NC-AE medication use was less likely among women who drank 1-7 or 8-12 alcoholic drinks/week (vs. abstaining) (P < 0.04). HIV infection was associated with NC-AE medication use, which may influence determinations of HIV-associated neurocognitive impairment. Providers should consider the impact of NC-AE medications when evaluating patients with HIV and concurrent neurocognitive symptoms.

  12. Biological Subtype Predicts Risk of Locoregional Recurrence After Mastectomy and Impact of Postmastectomy Radiation in a Large National Database

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tseng, Yolanda D.; Uno, Hajime; Hughes, Melissa E.; Niland, Joyce C.; Wong, Yu-Ning; Theriault, Richard; Blitzblau, Rachel C.; Moy, Beverly; Breslin, Tara; Edge, Stephen B.; Hassett, Michael J.; Punglia, Rinaa S.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate locoregional recurrence (LRR) after mastectomy and impact of postmastectomy radiation (PMRT) by breast cancer subtype. Methods and Materials: Between 2000 and 2009, 5673 patients with stage I to III breast carcinoma underwent mastectomy and nodal evaluation; 30% received PMRT. Isolated LRR (iLRR) and LRR were compared across groups defined by biological subtype and receipt of trastuzumab: luminal A (estrogen [ER]/progesterone [PR]+, HER2−, low/intermediate grade), luminal B (ER/PR+, HER2−, high grade), HER2 with trastuzumab, HER2 without trastuzumab, and triple negative (TN; ER−, PR−, HER2−). LRR hazard ratios (HR) were estimated with multivariable Fine and Gray models. The effect of PMRT on LRR was evaluated with Fine and Gray models stratified by propensity for PMRT. Results: With a median follow-up time of 50.1 months, there were 19 iLRR and 109 LRR events. HER2 patients with trastuzumab had no iLRR and only a single LRR. Compared with luminal A patients, TN patients had significantly greater adjusted risk of iLRR (HR 14.10; 95% CI 2.97%-66.90%), with a similar trend among luminal B (HR 4.94; 95% CI 0.94%-25.82%) and HER2 patients without trastuzumab (HR 4.41; 95% CI 0.61%-32.11%). Although PMRT reduced LRR, the effect of PMRT varied by subgroup, with the greatest and smallest effects seen among luminal A (HR 0.17; 95% CI 0.05%-0.62%) and TN patients (HR 0.59; 95% CI 0.25%-1.35%), respectively. Conclusions: TN patients had the highest risk of LRR and the least benefit from PMRT; these patients may benefit from alternative treatment strategies. In contrast, in the era of HER2-directed therapy, the role of local therapy may need to be reassessed among HER2 patients.

  13. Hillslope, river, and Mountain: some surprises in Landscape evolution (Ralph Alger Bagnold Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, G. E.

    2012-04-01

    Geomorphology, like the rest of geoscience, has always had two major themes: a quest to understand the earth's history and 'products' - its landscapes and seascapes - and, in parallel, a quest to understand its formative processes. This dualism is manifest in the remarkable career of R. A. Bagnold, who was inspired by landforms such as dunes, and dedicated to understanding the physical processes that shaped them. His legacy inspires us to emulate two principles at the heart of his contributions: the benefits of rooting geomorphic theory in basic physics, and the importance of understanding geomorphic systems in terms of simple equations framed around energy or force. Today, following Bagnold's footsteps, the earth-surface process community is engaged in a quest to build, test, and refine an ever-improving body of theory to describe our planet's surface and its evolution. In this lecture, I review a small sample of some of the fruits of that quest, emphasizing the value of surprises encountered along the way. The first example involves models of long-term river incision into bedrock. When the community began to grapple with how to represent this process mathematically, several different ideas emerged. Some were based on the assumption that sediment transport is the limiting factor; others assumed that hydraulic stress on rock is the key, while still others treated rivers as first-order 'reactors.' Thanks in part to advances in digital topography and numerical computing, the predictions of these models can be tested using natural-experiment case studies. Examples from the King Range, USA, the Central Apennines, Italy, and the fold-thrust belt of Taiwan, illustrate that independent knowledge of history and/or tectonics makes it possible to quantify how the rivers have responded to external forcing. Some interesting surprises emerge, such as: that the relief-uplift relationship can be highly nonlinear in a steady-state landscape because of grain-entrainment thresholds

  14. Treatments of Missing Values in Large National Data Affect Conclusions: The Impact of Multiple Imputation on Arthroplasty Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ondeck, Nathaniel T; Fu, Michael C; Skrip, Laura A; McLynn, Ryan P; Su, Edwin P; Grauer, Jonathan N

    2018-03-01

    Despite the advantages of large, national datasets, one continuing concern is missing data values. Complete case analysis, where only cases with complete data are analyzed, is commonly used rather than more statistically rigorous approaches such as multiple imputation. This study characterizes the potential selection bias introduced using complete case analysis and compares the results of common regressions using both techniques following unicompartmental knee arthroplasty. Patients undergoing unicompartmental knee arthroplasty were extracted from the 2005 to 2015 National Surgical Quality Improvement Program. As examples, the demographics of patients with and without missing preoperative albumin and hematocrit values were compared. Missing data were then treated with both complete case analysis and multiple imputation (an approach that reproduces the variation and associations that would have been present in a full dataset) and the conclusions of common regressions for adverse outcomes were compared. A total of 6117 patients were included, of which 56.7% were missing at least one value. Younger, female, and healthier patients were more likely to have missing preoperative albumin and hematocrit values. The use of complete case analysis removed 3467 patients from the study in comparison with multiple imputation which included all 6117 patients. The 2 methods of handling missing values led to differing associations of low preoperative laboratory values with commonly studied adverse outcomes. The use of complete case analysis can introduce selection bias and may lead to different conclusions in comparison with the statistically rigorous multiple imputation approach. Joint surgeons should consider the methods of handling missing values when interpreting arthroplasty research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Assessing the impact of large-scale computing on the size and complexity of first-principles electromagnetic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, E.K.

    1990-01-01

    There is a growing need to determine the electromagnetic performance of increasingly complex systems at ever higher frequencies. The ideal approach would be some appropriate combination of measurement, analysis, and computation so that system design and assessment can be achieved to a needed degree of accuracy at some acceptable cost. Both measurement and computation benefit from the continuing growth in computer power that, since the early 1950s, has increased by a factor of more than a million in speed and storage. For example, a CRAY2 has an effective throughput (not the clock rate) of about 10 11 floating-point operations (FLOPs) per hour compared with the approximate 10 5 provided by the UNIVAC-1. The purpose of this discussion is to illustrate the computational complexity of modeling large (in wavelengths) electromagnetic problems. In particular the author makes the point that simply relying on faster computers for increasing the size and complexity of problems that can be modeled is less effective than might be anticipated from this raw increase in computer throughput. He suggests that rather than depending on faster computers alone, various analytical and numerical alternatives need development for reducing the overall FLOP count required to acquire the information desired. One approach is to decrease the operation count of the basic model computation itself, by reducing the order of the frequency dependence of the various numerical operations or their multiplying coefficients. Another is to decrease the number of model evaluations that are needed, an example being the number of frequency samples required to define a wideband response, by using an auxiliary model of the expected behavior. 11 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs

  16. Lessons from a large trauma center: impact of blunt chest trauma in polytrauma patients-still a relevant problem?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrysou, Konstantina; Halat, Gabriel; Hoksch, Beatrix; Schmid, Ralph A; Kocher, Gregor J

    2017-04-20

    Thoracic trauma is the third most common cause of death after abdominal injury and head trauma in polytrauma patients. The purpose of this study was to investigate epidemiological data, treatment and outcome of polytrauma patients with blunt chest trauma in order to help improve management, prevent complications and decrease polytrauma patients' mortality. In this retrospective study we included all polytrauma patients with blunt chest trauma admitted to our tertiary care center emergency department for a 2-year period, from June 2012 until May 2014. Data collection included details of treatment and outcome. Patients with chest trauma and Injury Severity Score (ISS) ≥18 and Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) >2 in more than one body region were included. A total of 110 polytrauma patients with blunt chest injury were evaluated. 82 of them were males and median age was 48.5 years. Car accidents, falls from a height and motorbike accidents were the most common causes (>75%) for blunt chest trauma. Rib fractures, pneumothorax and pulmonary contusion were the most common chest injuries. Most patients (64.5%) sustained a serious chest injury (AIS thorax 3), 19.1% a severe chest injury (AIS thorax 4) and 15.5% a moderate chest injury (AIS thorax 2). 90% of patients with blunt chest trauma were treated conservatively. Chest tube insertion was indicated in 54.5% of patients. The need for chest tube was significantly higher among the AIS thorax 4 group in comparison to the AIS groups 3 and 2 (p < 0.001). Also, admission to the ICU was directly related to the severity of the AIS thorax (p < 0.001). The severity of chest trauma did not correlate with ICU length of stay, intubation days, complications or mortality. Although 84.5% of patients suffered from serious or even severe chest injury, neither in the conservative nor in the surgically treated group a significant impact of injury severity on ICU stay, intubation days, complications or mortality was observed. AIS

  17. Sex-specific impact of early-life adversity on chronic pain: a large population-based study in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yamada K

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Keiko Yamada,1,2 Ko Matsudaira,3,4 Eizaburo Tanaka,1,5 Hiroyuki Oka,3 Junji Katsuhira,3,6 Hiroyasu Iso1 1Public Health, Department of Social Medicine, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Suita, Osaka, 2Center for Pain Management, Osaka University Hospital, Suita, Osaka, 3Department of Medical Research and Management for Musculoskeletal Pain, 22nd Century Medical and Research Center, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 4Japan Labour Health & Welfare Organization, Tokyo, 5Hyogo Institute for Traumatic Stress, Kobe, 6Department of Prosthetics & Orthotics and Assistive Technology, Faculty of Medical Technology, Niigata University of Health and Welfare, Niigata, Japan Background: Responses to early-life adversity may differ by sex. We investigated the ­sex-specific impact of early-life adversity on chronic pain, chronic multisite pain, and somatizing tendency with chronic pain. Methods: We examined 4229 respondents aged 20–79 years who participated in the Pain Associated Cross-Sectional Epidemiological Survey in Japan. Outcomes were: 1 chronic pain prevalence, 2 multisite pain (≥3 sites prevalence, and 3 multiple somatic symptoms (≥3 symptoms among respondents with chronic pain related to the presence or absence of early-life adversity. Multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (ORs were calculated with 95% confidence intervals using a logistic regression model including age, smoking status, exercise routine, sleep time, body mass index, household expenditure, and the full distribution of scores on the Mental Health Inventory-5. We further adjusted for pain intensity when we analyzed the data for respondents with chronic pain. Results: The prevalence of chronic pain was higher among respondents reporting the presence of early-life adversity compared with those reporting its absence, with multivariable ORs of 1.62 (1.22–2.15, p<0.01 in men and 1.47 (1.13–1.90, p<0.01 in women. Among women with chronic pain, early

  18. Cerebral metastasis masquerading as cerebritis: A case of misguiding history and radiological surprise!

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashish Kumar

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Cerebral metastases usually have a characteristic radiological appearance. They can be differentiated rather easily from any infective etiology. Similarly, positive medical history also guides the neurosurgeon towards the possible diagnosis and adds to the diagnostic armamentarium. However, occasionally, similarities on imaging may be encountered where even history could lead us in the wrong direction and tends to bias the clinician. We report a case of a 40-year-old female with a history of mastoidectomy for otitis media presenting to us with a space occupying lesion in the right parietal region, which was thought pre-operatively as an abscess along with the cerebritis. Surprisingly, the histopathology proved it to be a metastatic adenocarcinoma. Hence, a ring enhancing lesion may be a high grade neoplasm/metastasis/abscess, significant gyral enhancement; a feature of cerebritis is not linked with a neoplastic etiology more often. This may lead to delayed diagnosis, incorrect prognostication and treatment in patients having coincidental suggestive history of infection. We review the literature and highlight the key points helping to differentiate an infective from a neoplastic pathology which may look similar at times.

  19. Beyond interests and institutions: US health policy reform and the surprising silence of big business.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyrl, Marc E

    2014-02-01

    Interest-based arguments do not provide satisfying explanations for the surprising reticence of major US employers to take a more active role in the debate surrounding the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA). Through focused comparison with the Bismarckian systems of France and Germany, on the one hand, and with the 1950s and 1960s in the United States, on the other, this article concludes that while institutional elements do account for some of the observed behavior of big business, a necessary complement to this is a fuller understanding of the historically determined legitimating ideology of US firms. From the era of the "corporate commonwealth," US business inherited the principles of private welfare provision and of resistance to any expansion of government control. Once complementary, these principles are now mutually exclusive: employer-provided health insurance increasingly is possible only at the cost of ever-increasing government subsidy and regulation. Paralyzed by the uncertainty that followed from this clash of legitimate ideas, major employers found themselves unable to take a coherent and unified stand for or against the law. As a consequence, they failed either to oppose it successfully or to secure modifications to it that would have been useful to them.

  20. Surprise responses in the human brain demonstrate statistical learning under high concurrent cognitive demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrido, Marta Isabel; Teng, Chee Leong James; Taylor, Jeremy Alexander; Rowe, Elise Genevieve; Mattingley, Jason Brett

    2016-06-01

    The ability to learn about regularities in the environment and to make predictions about future events is fundamental for adaptive behaviour. We have previously shown that people can implicitly encode statistical regularities and detect violations therein, as reflected in neuronal responses to unpredictable events that carry a unique prediction error signature. In the real world, however, learning about regularities will often occur in the context of competing cognitive demands. Here we asked whether learning of statistical regularities is modulated by concurrent cognitive load. We compared electroencephalographic metrics associated with responses to pure-tone sounds with frequencies sampled from narrow or wide Gaussian distributions. We showed that outliers evoked a larger response than those in the centre of the stimulus distribution (i.e., an effect of surprise) and that this difference was greater for physically identical outliers in the narrow than in the broad distribution. These results demonstrate an early neurophysiological marker of the brain's ability to implicitly encode complex statistical structure in the environment. Moreover, we manipulated concurrent cognitive load by having participants perform a visual working memory task while listening to these streams of sounds. We again observed greater prediction error responses in the narrower distribution under both low and high cognitive load. Furthermore, there was no reliable reduction in prediction error magnitude under high-relative to low-cognitive load. Our findings suggest that statistical learning is not a capacity limited process, and that it proceeds automatically even when cognitive resources are taxed by concurrent demands.

  1. Pseudohalide (SCN(-))-Doped MAPbI3 Perovskites: A Few Surprises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halder, Ansuman; Chulliyil, Ramya; Subbiah, Anand S; Khan, Tuhin; Chattoraj, Shyamtanu; Chowdhury, Arindam; Sarkar, Shaibal K

    2015-09-03

    Pseudohalide thiocyanate anion (SCN(-)) has been used as a dopant in a methylammonium lead tri-iodide (MAPbI3) framework, aiming for its use as an absorber layer for photovoltaic applications. The substitution of SCN(-) pseudohalide anion, as verified using Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy, results in a comprehensive effect on the optical properties of the original material. Photoluminescence measurements at room temperature reveal a significant enhancement in the emission quantum yield of MAPbI3-x(SCN)x as compared to MAPbI3, suggestive of suppression of nonradiative channels. This increased intensity is attributed to a highly edge specific emission from MAPbI3-x(SCN)x microcrystals as revealed by photoluminescence microscopy. Fluoresence lifetime imaging measurements further established contrasting carrier recombination dynamics for grain boundaries and the bulk of the doped material. Spatially resolved emission spectroscopy on individual microcrystals of MAPbI3-x(SCN)x reveals that the optical bandgap and density of states at various (local) nanodomains are also nonuniform. Surprisingly, several (local) emissive regions within MAPbI3-x(SCN)x microcrystals are found to be optically unstable under photoirradiation, and display unambiguous temporal intermittency in emission (blinking), which is extremely unusual and intriguing. We find diverse blinking behaviors for the undoped MAPbI3 crystals as well, which leads us to speculate that blinking may be a common phenomenon for most hybrid perovskite materials.

  2. From Lithium-Ion to Sodium-Ion Batteries: Advantages, Challenges, and Surprises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayak, Prasant Kumar; Yang, Liangtao; Brehm, Wolfgang; Adelhelm, Philipp

    2018-01-02

    Mobile and stationary energy storage by rechargeable batteries is a topic of broad societal and economical relevance. Lithium-ion battery (LIB) technology is at the forefront of the development, but a massively growing market will likely put severe pressure on resources and supply chains. Recently, sodium-ion batteries (SIBs) have been reconsidered with the aim of providing a lower-cost alternative that is less susceptible to resource and supply risks. On paper, the replacement of lithium by sodium in a battery seems straightforward at first, but unpredictable surprises are often found in practice. What happens when replacing lithium by sodium in electrode reactions? This review provides a state-of-the art overview on the redox behavior of materials when used as electrodes in lithium-ion and sodium-ion batteries, respectively. Advantages and challenges related to the use of sodium instead of lithium are discussed. © 2018 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  3. Surprises from the resolution of operator mixing in N=4 SYM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bianchi, Massimo; Rossi, Giancarlo; Stanev, Yassen S.

    2004-01-01

    We reexamine the problem of operator mixing in N=4 SYM. Particular attention is paid to the correct definition of composite gauge invariant local operators, which is necessary for the computation of their anomalous dimensions beyond lowest order. As an application we reconsider the case of operators with naive dimension Δ 0 =4, already studied in the literature. Stringent constraints from the resummation of logarithms in power behaviours are exploited and the role of the generalized N=4 Konishi anomaly in the mixing with operators involving fermions is discussed. A general method for the explicit (numerical) resolution of the operator mixing and the computation of anomalous dimensions is proposed. We then resolve the order g 2 mixing for the 15 (purely scalar) singlet operators of naive dimension Δ 0 =6. Rather surprisingly we find one isolated operator which has a vanishing anomalous dimension up to order g 4 , belonging to an apparently long multiplet. We also solve the order g 2 mixing for the 26 operators belonging to the representation 20' of SU(4). We find an operator with the same one-loop anomalous dimension as the Konishi multiplet

  4. Clinical efficacy, safety, and costs of percutaneous occlusive balloon catheter-assisted ureteroscopic lithotripsy for large impacted proximal ureteral calculi: a prospective, randomized study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Shiyong; Li, Yanni; Liu, Xu; Zhang, Changwen; Zhang, Hongtuan; Zhang, Zhihong; Xu, Yong

    2014-09-01

    To evaluate the clinical efficacy, safety, and costs of percutaneous occlusive balloon catheter-assisted ureteroscopic lithotripsy (POBC-URSL) for large impacted proximal ureteral calculi. 156 patients with impacted proximal ureteral stones ≥1.5 cm in size were randomized to ureteroscopic lithotripsy (URSL), POBC-URSL, and percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PNL) group between May 2010 and May 2013. For URSL, the calculi were disintegrated with the assistance of anti-retropulsion devices. POBC-URSL was performed with the assistance of an 8F percutaneous occlusive balloon catheter. PNL was finished with the combination of an ultrasonic and a pneumatic lithotripter. A flexible ureteroscope and a 200 μm laser fiber were used to achieve stone-free status to a large extent for each group. Variables studied were mean operative time, auxiliary procedure, postoperative hospital stay, operation-related complications, stone clearance rate, and treatment costs. The mean lithotripsy time for POBC-URSL was shorter than URSL, but longer than PNL (42.6±8.9 minutes vs 66.7±15.3 minutes vs 28.1±6.3 minutes, p=0.014). The auxiliary procedure rate and postoperative fever rate for POBC-URSL were significantly lower than URSL and comparable to PNL (pPNL (98.1% vs 75.0% vs 96.2%, pPNL group and similar to URSL group (p=0.016, pPNL.

  5. Large dams and alluvial rivers in the Anthropocene: The impacts of the Garrison and Oahe Dams on the Upper Missouri River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skalak, Katherine; Benthem, Adam J.; Schenk, Edward R.; Hupp, Cliff R.; Galloway, Joel M.; Nustad, Rochelle A.; Wiche, Gregg J.

    2013-01-01

    The Missouri River has had a long history of anthropogenic modification with considerable impacts on river and riparian ecology, form, and function. During the 20th century, several large dam-building efforts in the basin served the needs for irrigation, flood control, navigation, and the generation of hydroelectric power. The managed flow provided a range of uses, including recreation, fisheries, and habitat. Fifteen dams impound the main stem of the river, with hundreds more on tributaries. Though the effects of dams and reservoirs are well-documented, their impacts have been studied individually, with relatively little attention paid to their interaction along a river corridor. We examine the morphological and sedimentological changes in the Upper Missouri River between the Garrison Dam in ND (operational in 1953) and Oahe Dam in SD (operational in 1959). Through historical aerial photography, stream gage data, and cross sectional surveys, we demonstrate that the influence of the upstream dam is still a major control of river dynamics when the backwater effects of the downstream reservoir begin. In the “Anthropocene”, dams are ubiquitous on large rivers and often occur in series, similar to the Garrison Dam Segment. We propose a conceptual model of how interacting dams might affect river geomorphology, resulting in distinct and recognizable morphologic sequences that we term “Inter-Dam sequence” characteristic of major rivers in the US.

  6. The micro-environmental impact of volatile organic compound emissions from large-scale assemblies of people in a confined space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dutta, Tanushree; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Uchimiya, Minori; Kumar, Pawan; Das, Subhasish; Bhattacharya, Satya Sundar; Szulejko, Jan

    2016-01-01

    Large-scale assemblies of people in a confined space can exert significant impacts on the local air chemistry due to human emissions of volatile organics. Variations of air-quality in such small scale can be studied by quantifying fingerprint volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as acetone, toluene, and isoprene produced during concerts, movie screenings, and sport events (like the Olympics and the World Cup). This review summarizes the extent of VOC accumulation resulting from a large population in a confined area or in a small open area during sporting and other recreational activities. Apart from VOCs emitted directly from human bodies (e.g., perspiration and exhaled breath), those released indirectly from other related sources (e.g., smoking, waste disposal, discharge of food-waste, and use of personal-care products) are also discussed. Although direct and indirect emissions of VOCs from human may constitute <1% of the global atmospheric VOCs budget, unique spatiotemporal variations in VOCs species within a confined space can have unforeseen impacts on the local atmosphere to lead to acute human exposure to harmful pollutants.

  7. The micro-environmental impact of volatile organic compound emissions from large-scale assemblies of people in a confined space

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dutta, Tanushree [Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, 222 Wangsimni-Ro, Seoul 04763 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Ki-Hyun, E-mail: kkim61@hanyang.ac.kr [Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, 222 Wangsimni-Ro, Seoul 04763 (Korea, Republic of); Uchimiya, Minori [USDA-ARS Southern Regional Research Center, 1100 Robert E. Lee Boulevard, New Orleans, LA 70124 (United States); Kumar, Pawan [Department of Chemical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Hauz Khas, New Delhi 11016 (India); Das, Subhasish; Bhattacharya, Satya Sundar [Soil & Agro-Bioengineering Lab, Department of Environmental Science, Tezpur University, Napaam 784028 (India); Szulejko, Jan [Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, 222 Wangsimni-Ro, Seoul 04763 (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-11-15

    Large-scale assemblies of people in a confined space can exert significant impacts on the local air chemistry due to human emissions of volatile organics. Variations of air-quality in such small scale can be studied by quantifying fingerprint volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as acetone, toluene, and isoprene produced during concerts, movie screenings, and sport events (like the Olympics and the World Cup). This review summarizes the extent of VOC accumulation resulting from a large population in a confined area or in a small open area during sporting and other recreational activities. Apart from VOCs emitted directly from human bodies (e.g., perspiration and exhaled breath), those released indirectly from other related sources (e.g., smoking, waste disposal, discharge of food-waste, and use of personal-care products) are also discussed. Although direct and indirect emissions of VOCs from human may constitute <1% of the global atmospheric VOCs budget, unique spatiotemporal variations in VOCs species within a confined space can have unforeseen impacts on the local atmosphere to lead to acute human exposure to harmful pollutants.

  8. The (Surprising) Impact of Televised Antidepressant Direct-to-Consumer Advertising on the Stigmatization of Mental Illness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rainone, Nicolette; Oodal, Reshma; Niederdeppe, Jeff

    2018-04-01

    This study tests the effect of pharmaceutical Direct-to-Consumer Advertising (DTCA) for antidepressants on perceived stigma surrounding mental disorders. We randomly assigned participants into one of three experimental conditions: antidepressant DTCA with portrayals of discrimination, cognitive separation, and stereotyping (DCSS), antidepressant DTCA without these representations, or a no-exposure control. Contrary to study hypotheses, participants who viewed ads containing portrayals of DCSS were significantly less likely to want to socially distance themselves from those with mental illnesses than those assigned to the no-exposure control condition, even when controlling for demographics and personal experience with mental illness. We discuss plausible explanations for the unexpected pattern of effects and resulting implications for future research on the topic.

  9. Impact of air-sea drag coefficient for latent heat flux on large scale climate in coupled and atmosphere stand-alone simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Olivier; Braconnot, Pascale; Marti, Olivier; Gential, Luc

    2018-05-01

    The turbulent fluxes across the ocean/atmosphere interface represent one of the principal driving forces of the global atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Despite decades of effort and improvements, representation of these fluxes still presents a challenge due to the small-scale acting turbulent processes compared to the resolved scales of the models. Beyond this subgrid parameterization issue, a comprehensive understanding of the impact of air-sea interactions on the climate system is still lacking. In this paper we investigates the large-scale impacts of the transfer coefficient used to compute turbulent heat fluxes with the IPSL-CM4 climate model in which the surface bulk formula is modified. Analyzing both atmosphere and coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (AGCM, OAGCM) simulations allows us to study the direct effect and the mechanisms of adjustment to this modification. We focus on the representation of latent heat flux in the tropics. We show that the heat transfer coefficients are highly similar for a given parameterization between AGCM and OAGCM simulations. Although the same areas are impacted in both kind of simulations, the differences in surface heat fluxes are substantial. A regional modification of heat transfer coefficient has more impact than uniform modification in AGCM simulations while in OAGCM simulations, the opposite is observed. By studying the global energetics and the atmospheric circulation response to the modification, we highlight the role of the ocean in dampening a large part of the disturbance. Modification of the heat exchange coefficient modifies the way the coupled system works due to the link between atmospheric circulation and SST, and the different feedbacks between ocean and atmosphere. The adjustment that takes place implies a balance of net incoming solar radiation that is the same in all simulations. As there is no change in model physics other than drag coefficient, we obtain similar latent heat flux

  10. MYC protein expression and genetic alterations have prognostic impact in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma treated with immunochemotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valera, Alexandra; López-Guillermo, Armando; Cardesa-Salzmann, Teresa; Climent, Fina; González-Barca, Eva; Mercadal, Santiago; Espinosa, Iñigo; Novelli, Silvana; Briones, Javier; Mate, José L; Salamero, Olga; Sancho, Juan M; Arenillas, Leonor; Serrano, Sergi; Erill, Nadina; Martínez, Daniel; Castillo, Paola; Rovira, Jordina; Martínez, Antonio; Campo, Elias; Colomo, Luis

    2013-10-01

    MYC alterations influence the survival of patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. Most studies have focused on MYC translocations but there is little information regarding the impact of numerical alterations and protein expression. We analyzed the genetic alterations and protein expression of MYC, BCL2, BCL6, and MALT1 in 219 cases of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. MYC rearrangement occurred as the sole abnormality (MYC single-hit) in 3% of cases, MYC and concurrent BCL2 and/or BCL6 rearrangements (MYC double/triple-hit) in 4%, MYC amplifications in 2% and MYC gains in 19%. MYC single-hit, MYC double/triple-hit and MYC amplifications, but not MYC gains or other gene rearrangements, were associated with unfavorable progression-free survival and overall survival. MYC protein expression, evaluated using computerized image analysis, captured the unfavorable prognosis of MYC translocations/amplifications and identified an additional subset of patients without gene alterations but with similar poor prognosis. Patients with tumors expressing both MYC/BCL2 had the worst prognosis, whereas those with double-negative tumors had the best outcome. High MYC expression was associated with shorter overall survival irrespectively of the International Prognostic Index and BCL2 expression. In conclusion, MYC protein expression identifies a subset of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma with very poor prognosis independently of gene alterations and other prognostic parameters.

  11. Impact of sleep disordered breathing on behaviour among elementary school-aged children: a cross-sectional analysis of a large community-based sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Dale L; Gozal, David; Hunter, Scott J; Philby, Mona F; Kaylegian, Jaeson; Kheirandish-Gozal, Leila

    2016-12-01

    Sleep disordered breathing (SDB) in children has been associated with inattention, impulsivity and hyperactivity, but the associations between SDB severity and the type and severity of behavioural disruption are unclear.1022 children aged 5-7 years old prospectively underwent sleep studies and behavioural assessments through completion of standardised instruments. Participants were subdivided into four categorical groups based on the apnoea-hypopnoea index (AHI; measured per hour of total sleep time (hTST)), i.e. Group 1: nonsnoring and AHI hTST -1 ; Group 2: habitual snoring and AHI hTST -1 ; Group 3: habitual snoring and AHI 1-5 hTST -1 ; and Group 4: habitual snoring and AHI >5 hTST -1 , followed by comparisons of behavioural functioning across the groups.All 10 behavioural variables differed significantly between Group 1 and all other groups. Post hoc comparisons indicated that Group 2 was the most impaired for most behavioural measures. Furthermore, differences between Group 2 and more severe sleep pathology conditions were rarely significant.This large community-based paediatric cohort confirms earlier findings highlighting a significant impact of SDB on behavioural regulation, with the greatest impact being already apparent among habitually snoring children. Thus, a likely low asymptote exists regarding SDB behavioural impact, such that further increases in severity do not measurably increase parent-rated difficulties with behavioural regulation relative to controls. Our findings do support the need for considering early intervention, particularly among those children manifesting a behavioural impact of SDB. Copyright ©ERS 2016.

  12. A conceptual geochemical model of the geothermal system at Surprise Valley, CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Andrew P. G.; Ferguson, Colin; Cantwell, Carolyn A.; Zierenberg, Robert A.; McClain, James; Spycher, Nicolas; Dobson, Patrick

    2018-03-01

    Characterizing the geothermal system at Surprise Valley (SV), northeastern California, is important for determining the sustainability of the energy resource, and mitigating hazards associated with hydrothermal eruptions that last occurred in 1951. Previous geochemical studies of the area attempted to reconcile different hot spring compositions on the western and eastern sides of the valley using scenarios of dilution, equilibration at low temperatures, surface evaporation, and differences in rock type along flow paths. These models were primarily supported using classical geothermometry methods, and generally assumed that fluids in the Lake City mud volcano area on the western side of the valley best reflect the composition of a deep geothermal fluid. In this contribution, we address controls on hot spring compositions using a different suite of geochemical tools, including optimized multicomponent geochemistry (GeoT) models, hot spring fluid major and trace element measurements, mineralogical observations, and stable isotope measurements of hot spring fluids and precipitated carbonates. We synthesize the results into a conceptual geochemical model of the Surprise Valley geothermal system, and show that high-temperature (quartz, Na/K, Na/K/Ca) classical geothermometers fail to predict maximum subsurface temperatures because fluids re-equilibrated at progressively lower temperatures during outflow, including in the Lake City area. We propose a model where hot spring fluids originate as a mixture between a deep thermal brine and modern meteoric fluids, with a seasonally variable mixing ratio. The deep brine has deuterium values at least 3 to 4‰ lighter than any known groundwater or high-elevation snow previously measured in and adjacent to SV, suggesting it was recharged during the Pleistocene when meteoric fluids had lower deuterium values. The deuterium values and compositional characteristics of the deep brine have only been identified in thermal springs and

  13. Explanatory models of health and disease: surprises from within the former Soviet Union

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana I Andreeva

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Extract The review of anthropological theories as applied to public health by Jennifer J. Carroll (Carroll, 2013 published in this issue of TCPHEE made me recollect my first and most surprising discoveries of how differently same things can be understood in different parts of the world. Probably less unexpectedly, these impressions concern substance abuse and addiction behaviors, similarly to many examples deployed by Jennifer J. Carroll. The first of these events happened soon after the break-up of the Soviet Union when some of the most active people from the West rushed to discover what was going on behind the opening iron curtain. A director of an addiction clinic, who had just come into contact with a Dutch counterpart, invited me to join the collaboration and the innovation process he planned to launch. Being a participant of the exchange program started within this collaboration, I had an opportunity to discover how addictive behaviors were understood and explained in books (English, 1961; Kooyman, 1992; Viorst, 1986 recommended by the colleagues in the Netherlands and, as I could observe with my own eyes, addressed in everyday practice. This was a jaw-dropping contrast to what I learnt at the soviet medical university and some post-graduate courses, where all the diseases related to alcohol, tobacco, or drug abuse were considered predominantly a result of the substance intake. In the Soviet discourse, the intake itself was understood as 'willful and deliberate' or immoral behavior which, in some cases, was to be rectified in prison-like treatment facilities. In the West, quite oppositely, substance abuse was seen rather as a consequence of a constellation of life-course adversities thoroughly considered by developmental psychology. This approach was obviously deeply ingrained in how practitioners diagnosed and treated their patients.

  14. Metaproteomics of cellulose methanisation under thermophilic conditions reveals a surprisingly high proteolytic activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lü, Fan; Bize, Ariane; Guillot, Alain; Monnet, Véronique; Madigou, Céline; Chapleur, Olivier; Mazéas, Laurent; He, Pinjing; Bouchez, Théodore

    2014-01-01

    Cellulose is the most abundant biopolymer on Earth. Optimising energy recovery from this renewable but recalcitrant material is a key issue. The metaproteome expressed by thermophilic communities during cellulose anaerobic digestion was investigated in microcosms. By multiplying the analytical replicates (65 protein fractions analysed by MS/MS) and relying solely on public protein databases, more than 500 non-redundant protein functions were identified. The taxonomic community structure as inferred from the metaproteomic data set was in good overall agreement with 16S rRNA gene tag pyrosequencing and fluorescent in situ hybridisation analyses. Numerous functions related to cellulose and hemicellulose hydrolysis and fermentation catalysed by bacteria related to Caldicellulosiruptor spp. and Clostridium thermocellum were retrieved, indicating their key role in the cellulose-degradation process and also suggesting their complementary action. Despite the abundance of acetate as a major fermentation product, key methanogenesis enzymes from the acetoclastic pathway were not detected. In contrast, enzymes from the hydrogenotrophic pathway affiliated to Methanothermobacter were almost exclusively identified for methanogenesis, suggesting a syntrophic acetate oxidation process coupled to hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis. Isotopic analyses confirmed the high dominance of the hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis. Very surprising was the identification of an abundant proteolytic activity from Coprothermobacter proteolyticus strains, probably acting as scavenger and/or predator performing proteolysis and fermentation. Metaproteomics thus appeared as an efficient tool to unravel and characterise metabolic networks as well as ecological interactions during methanisation bioprocesses. More generally, metaproteomics provides direct functional insights at a limited cost, and its attractiveness should increase in the future as sequence databases are growing exponentially.

  15. Virtual Volatility, an Elementary New Concept with Surprising Stock Market Consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prange, Richard; Silva, A. Christian

    2006-03-01

    Textbook investors start by predicting the future price distribution, PDF, of a candidate stock (or portfolio) at horizon T, e.g. a year hence. A (log)normal PDF with center (=drift =expected return) μT and width (=volatility) σT is often assumed on Central Limit Theorem grounds, i.e. by a random walk of daily (log)price increments δs. The standard deviation, stdev, of historical (ex post) δs `s is usually a fair predictor of the coming year's (ex ante) stdev(δs) = σdaily, but the historical mean E(δs) at best roughly limits the true, to be predicted, drift by μtrueT˜ μhistT ± σhistT. Textbooks take a PDF with σ ˜ σdaily and μ as somehow known, as if accurate predictions of μ were possible. It is elementary and presumably new to argue that an average of PDF's over a range of μ values should be taken, e.g. an average over forecasts by different analysts. We estimate that this leads to a PDF with a `virtual' volatility σ ˜ 1.3σdaily. It is indeed clear that uncertainty in the value of the expected gain parameter increases the risk of investment in that security by most measures, e. g. Sharpe's ratio μT/σT will be 30% smaller because of this effect. It is significant and surprising that there are investments which benefit from this 30% virtual increase in the volatility

  16. Technological monitoring radar: a weak signals interpretation tool for the identification of strategic surprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adalton Ozaki

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available In the current competitive scenario, marked by rapid and constant changes, it is vital that companies actively monitor the business environment, in search of signs which might anticipate changes. This study poses to propose and discuss a tool called Technological Monitoring Radar, which endeavours to address the following query: “How can a company systematically monitor the environment and capture signs that anticipate opportunities and threats concerning a particular technology?”. The literature review covers Competitive Intelligence, Technological Intelligence, Environmental Analysis and Anticipative Monitoring. Based on the critical analysis of the literature, a tool called Technological Monitoring Radar is proposed comprising five environments to be monitored (political, economical, technological, social and competition each of which with key topics for analysis. To exemplify the use of the tool, it is applied to the smartphone segment in an exclusively reflexive manner, and without the participation of a specific company. One of the suggestions for future research is precisely the application of the proposed methodology in an actual company. Despite the limitation of this being a theoretical study, the example demonstrated the tool´s applicability. The radar prove to be very useful for a company that needs to monitor the environment in search of signs of change. This study´s main contribution is to relate different fields of study (technological intelligence, environmental analysis and anticipative monitoring and different approaches to provide a practical tool that allows a manager to identify and better visualize opportunities and threats, thus avoiding strategic surprises in the technological arena.Key words: Technological monitoring. Technological intelligence. Competitive intelligence. Weak signals.

  17. The genome of Pelobacter carbinolicus reveals surprising metabolic capabilities and physiological features

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aklujkar, Muktak [University of Massachusetts, Amherst; Haveman, Shelley [University of Massachusetts, Amherst; DiDonatoJr, Raymond [University of Massachusetts, Amherst; Chertkov, Olga [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL); Han, Cliff [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL); Land, Miriam L [ORNL; Brown, Peter [University of Massachusetts, Amherst; Lovley, Derek [University of Massachusetts, Amherst

    2012-01-01

    Background: The bacterium Pelobacter carbinolicus is able to grow by fermentation, syntrophic hydrogen/formate transfer, or electron transfer to sulfur from short-chain alcohols, hydrogen or formate; it does not oxidize acetate and is not known to ferment any sugars or grow autotrophically. The genome of P. carbinolicus was sequenced in order to understand its metabolic capabilities and physiological features in comparison with its relatives, acetate-oxidizing Geobacter species. Results: Pathways were predicted for catabolism of known substrates: 2,3-butanediol, acetoin, glycerol, 1,2-ethanediol, ethanolamine, choline and ethanol. Multiple isozymes of 2,3-butanediol dehydrogenase, ATP synthase and [FeFe]-hydrogenase were differentiated and assigned roles according to their structural properties and genomic contexts. The absence of asparagine synthetase and the presence of a mutant tRNA for asparagine encoded among RNA-active enzymes suggest that P. carbinolicus may make asparaginyl-tRNA in a novel way. Catabolic glutamate dehydrogenases were discovered, implying that the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle can function catabolically. A phosphotransferase system for uptake of sugars was discovered, along with enzymes that function in 2,3-butanediol production. Pyruvate: ferredoxin/flavodoxin oxidoreductase was identified as a potential bottleneck in both the supply of oxaloacetate for oxidation of acetate by the TCA cycle and the connection of glycolysis to production of ethanol. The P. carbinolicus genome was found to encode autotransporters and various appendages, including three proteins with similarity to the geopilin of electroconductive nanowires. Conclusions: Several surprising metabolic capabilities and physiological features were predicted from the genome of P. carbinolicus, suggesting that it is more versatile than anticipated.

  18. A surprisingly simple correlation between the classical and quantum structural networks in liquid water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamm, Peter; Fanourgakis, George S.; Xantheas, Sotiris S.

    2017-08-01

    Nuclear quantum effects in liquid water have profound implications for several of its macroscopic properties related to the structure, dynamics, spectroscopy, and transport. Although several of water's macroscopic properties can be reproduced by classical descriptions of the nuclei using interaction potentials effectively parameterized for a narrow range of its phase diagram, a proper account of the nuclear quantum effects is required to ensure that the underlying molecular interactions are transferable across a wide temperature range covering different regions of that diagram. When performing an analysis of the hydrogen-bonded structural networks in liquid water resulting from the classical (class) and quantum (qm) descriptions of the nuclei with two interaction potentials that are at the two opposite ends of the range in describing quantum effects, namely the flexible, pair-wise additive q-TIP4P/F, and the flexible, polarizable TTM3-F, we found that the (class) and (qm) results can be superimposed over the temperature range T = 250-350 K using a surprisingly simple, linear scaling of the two temperatures according to T(qm) = α T(class) + ΔT, where α = 0.99 and ΔT = -6 K for q-TIP4P/F and α = 1.24 and ΔT = -64 K for TTM3-F. This simple relationship suggests that the structural networks resulting from the quantum and classical treatment of the nuclei with those two very different interaction potentials are essentially similar to each other over this extended temperature range once a model-dependent linear temperature scaling law is applied.

  19. A post-genomic surprise. The molecular reinscription of race in science, law and medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duster, Troy

    2015-03-01

    The completion of the first draft of the Human Genome Map in 2000 was widely heralded as the promise and future of genetics-based medicines and therapies - so much so that pundits began referring to the new century as 'The Century of Genetics'. Moreover, definitive assertions about the overwhelming similarities of all humans' DNA (99.9 per cent) by the leaders of the Human Genome Project were trumpeted as the end of racial thinking about racial taxonomies of human genetic differences. But the first decade of the new century brought unwelcomed surprises. First, gene therapies turned out to be far more complicated than any had anticipated - and instead the pharmaceutical industry turned to a focus on drugs that might be 'related' to population differences based upon genetic markers. While the language of 'personalized medicine' dominated this frame, research on racially and ethnically designated populations differential responsiveness to drugs dominated the empirical work in the field. Ancestry testing and 'admixture research' would play an important role in a new kind of molecular reification of racial categories. Moreover, the capacity of the super-computer to map differences reverberated into personal identification that would affect both the criminal justice system and forensic science, and generate new levels of concern about personal privacy. Social scientists in general, and sociologists in particular, have been caught short by these developments - relying mainly on assertions that racial categories are socially constructed, regionally and historically contingent, and politically arbitrary. While these assertions are true, the imprimatur of scientific legitimacy has shifted the burden, since now 'admixture research' can claim that its results get at the 'reality' of human differentiation, not the admittedly flawed social constructions of racial categories. Yet what was missing from this framing of the problem: 'admixture research' is itself based upon socially

  20. Ejecting intact large molecular structures by C{sub 60} ion impact upon bio-organic solids; Ejection de tres grandes structures moleculaires intactes par impact de C{sub 60} sur des solides bioorganiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brunelle, A.; Della Negra, S.; Deprun, C.; Depauw, J.; Jacquet, D.; Le Beyec, Y.; Pautrat, N. [Experimental Research Division, Inst. de Physique Nucleaire, Paris-11 Univ., 91 - Orsay (France); Haakansson, P. [Division of Ion Physics, Angstrom Laboratory, Uppsala Univ. Uppsala (Sweden)

    1999-11-01

    C{sub 60} molecules accelerated to MeV energies (20 MeV) have been used to induce the desorption-ionization of large bio-molecules from solid samples. In the case of the trypsin molecules, the secondary molecular ion emission yield is about two orders of magnitude larger than with MeV atomic ions. This is a consequence of the very high energy density deposited in solids by 20 MeV C{sub 60} projectiles that gives rise to a large amount of matter ejected after each impact. Although time-of-flight mass spectra can be recorded within a few seconds, it is more the mechanistic aspects in comparison with other particle induced desorption methods, which are the objective of these first results with energetic fullerenes. (authors) 1 fig.

  1. Participation of the public in the licensing of large-scale projects with environmental impact - theoretical framework and project conceptual outline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bechmann, G.; Gloede, F.

    1989-01-01

    The paper discusses the dimensions and environmental impacts of large-scale projects, and public participation as an element of institutionalized problem management. The legal protection functions, the administrative and socio-political functions are subsumed under a concept of function which defines a function as a synthesis of a variety of possibilities, so that different 'achievements' are expected from public participation, depending on the reference system chosen for comparison. The paper explains the purpose of the examination of public participation and its functions, the design of analytical procedure which covers the three main stages of 'input, legal procedure, output', and instruments and aspects such as interdisciplinarity, representativity, comparison, relation between empirical research and the principles of the law. (HSCH) [de

  2. Analysis of the Economic Impact of Large-Scale Deployment of Biomass Resources for Energy and Materials in the Netherlands. Macro-economics biobased synthesis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoefnagels, R.; Dornburg, V.; Faaij, A.; Banse, M.

    2009-03-01

    The Bio-based Raw Materials Platform (PGG), part of the Energy Transition in The Netherlands, commissioned the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI) and the Copernicus Institute of Utrecht University to conduct research on the macro-economic impact of large scale deployment of biomass for energy and materials in the Netherlands. Two model approaches were applied based on a consistent set of scenario assumptions: a bottom-up study including technoeconomic projections of fossil and bio-based conversion technologies and a topdown study including macro-economic modelling of (global) trade of biomass and fossil resources. The results of the top-down and bottom-up modelling work are reported separately. The results of the synthesis of the modelling work are presented in this report

  3. Analysis of the Economic Impact of Large-Scale Deployment of Biomass Resources for Energy and Materials in the Netherlands. Appendix 2. Macro-economic Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banse, M.

    2009-03-01

    The Bio-based Raw Materials Platform (known as PGG), which is part of the Energy Transition programme in the Netherlands, commissioned the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI) and the Copernicus Institute of Utrecht University to study the macro-economic impact of large-scale deployment of biomass for energy and materials in the Netherlands. Two model approaches were applied based on a consistent set of scenario assumptions: