WorldWideScience

Sample records for surface wind prediction

  1. Deterministic prediction of surface wind speed variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. V. Drisya

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of wind speed is an important aspect of various tasks related to wind energy management such as wind turbine predictive control and wind power scheduling. The most typical characteristic of wind speed data is its persistent temporal variations. Most of the techniques reported in the literature for prediction of wind speed and power are based on statistical methods or probabilistic distribution of wind speed data. In this paper we demonstrate that deterministic forecasting methods can make accurate short-term predictions of wind speed using past data, at locations where the wind dynamics exhibit chaotic behaviour. The predictions are remarkably accurate up to 1 h with a normalised RMSE (root mean square error of less than 0.02 and reasonably accurate up to 3 h with an error of less than 0.06. Repeated application of these methods at 234 different geographical locations for predicting wind speeds at 30-day intervals for 3 years reveals that the accuracy of prediction is more or less the same across all locations and time periods. Comparison of the results with f-ARIMA model predictions shows that the deterministic models with suitable parameters are capable of returning improved prediction accuracy and capturing the dynamical variations of the actual time series more faithfully. These methods are simple and computationally efficient and require only records of past data for making short-term wind speed forecasts within practically tolerable margin of errors.

  2. Statistical downscaling of IPCC sea surface wind and wind energy predictions for U.S. east coastal ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Zhigang; Xue, Zuo; He, Ruoying; Bao, Xianwen; Song, Jun

    2016-08-01

    A multivariate statistical downscaling method is developed to produce regional, high-resolution, coastal surface wind fields based on the IPCC global model predictions for the U.S. east coastal ocean, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), and the Caribbean Sea. The statistical relationship is built upon linear regressions between the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) spaces of a cross- calibrated, multi-platform, multi-instrument ocean surface wind velocity dataset (predictand) and the global NCEP wind reanalysis (predictor) over a 10 year period from 2000 to 2009. The statistical relationship is validated before applications and its effectiveness is confirmed by the good agreement between downscaled wind fields based on the NCEP reanalysis and in-situ surface wind measured at 16 National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys in the U.S. east coastal ocean and the GOM during 1992-1999. The predictand-predictor relationship is applied to IPCC GFDL model output (2.0°×2.5°) of downscaled coastal wind at 0.25°×0.25° resolution. The temporal and spatial variability of future predicted wind speeds and wind energy potential over the study region are further quantified. It is shown that wind speed and power would significantly be reduced in the high CO2 climate scenario offshore of the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S., with the speed falling to one quarter of its original value.

  3. An Initial Assessment of the Impact of CYGNSS Ocean Surface Wind Assimilation on Navy Global and Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, N. L.; Tsu, J.; Swadley, S. D.

    2017-12-01

    We assess the impact of assimilation of CYclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) ocean surface winds observations into the NAVGEM[i] global and COAMPS®[ii] mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. Both NAVGEM and COAMPS® used the NRL 4DVar assimilation system NAVDAS-AR[iii]. Long term monitoring of the NAVGEM Forecast Sensitivity Observation Impact (FSOI) indicates that the forecast error reduction for ocean surface wind vectors (ASCAT and WindSat) are significantly larger than for SSMIS wind speed observations. These differences are larger than can be explained by simply two pieces of information (for wind vectors) versus one (wind speed). To help understand these results, we conducted a series of Observing System Experiments (OSEs) to compare the assimilation of ASCAT wind vectors with the equivalent (computed) ASCAT wind speed observations. We found that wind vector assimilation was typically 3 times more effective at reducing the NAVGEM forecast error, with a higher percentage of beneficial observations. These results suggested that 4DVar, in the absence of an additional nonlinear outer loop, has limited ability to modify the analysis wind direction. We examined several strategies for assimilating CYGNSS ocean surface wind speed observations. In the first approach, we assimilated CYGNSS as wind speed observations, following the same methodology used for SSMIS winds. The next two approaches converted CYGNSS wind speed to wind vectors, using NAVGEM sea level pressure fields (following Holton, 1979), and using NAVGEM 10-m wind fields with the AER Variational Analysis Method. Finally, we compared these methods to CYGNSS wind speed assimilation using multiple outer loops with NAVGEM Hybrid 4DVar. Results support the earlier studies suggesting that NAVDAS-AR wind speed assimilation is sub-optimal. We present detailed results from multi-month NAVGEM assimilation runs along with case studies using COAMPS®. Comparisons include the fit of

  4. Wind power prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  5. Application of the nonlinear time series prediction method of genetic algorithm for forecasting surface wind of point station in the South China Sea with scatterometer observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhong Jian; Dong Gang; Sun Yimei; Zhang Zhaoyang; Wu Yuqin

    2016-01-01

    The present work reports the development of nonlinear time series prediction method of genetic algorithm (GA) with singular spectrum analysis (SSA) for forecasting the surface wind of a point station in the South China Sea (SCS) with scatterometer observations. Before the nonlinear technique GA is used for forecasting the time series of surface wind, the SSA is applied to reduce the noise. The surface wind speed and surface wind components from scatterometer observations at three locations in the SCS have been used to develop and test the technique. The predictions have been compared with persistence forecasts in terms of root mean square error. The predicted surface wind with GA and SSA made up to four days (longer for some point station) in advance have been found to be significantly superior to those made by persistence model. This method can serve as a cost-effective alternate prediction technique for forecasting surface wind of a point station in the SCS basin. (paper)

  6. On the sensitivity of numerical weather prediction to remotely sensed marine surface wind data - A simulation study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cane, M. A.; Cardone, V. J.; Halem, M.; Halberstam, I.

    1981-01-01

    The reported investigation has the objective to assess the potential impact on numerical weather prediction (NWP) of remotely sensed surface wind data. Other investigations conducted with similar objectives have not been satisfactory in connection with a use of procedures providing an unrealistic distribution of initial errors. In the current study, care has been taken to duplicate the actual distribution of information in the conventional observing system, thus shifting the emphasis from accuracy of the data to the data coverage. It is pointed out that this is an important consideration in assessing satellite observing systems since experience with sounder data has shown that improvements in forecasts due to satellite-derived information is due less to a general error reduction than to the ability to fill data-sparse regions. The reported study concentrates on the evaluation of the observing system simulation experimental design and on the assessment of the potential of remotely sensed marine surface wind data.

  7. OW CCMP Ocean Surface Wind

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) Ocean Surface Wind Vector Analyses (Atlas et al., 2011) provide a consistent, gap-free long-term time-series of monthly...

  8. OW ASCAT Ocean Surface Winds

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) sensor onboard the EUMETSAT MetOp polar-orbiting satellite provides ocean surface wind observations by means of radar...

  9. Influence of orographically steered winds on Mutsu Bay surface currents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, Satoshi; Kawamura, Hiroshi

    2005-09-01

    Effects of spatially dependent sea surface wind field on currents in Mutsu Bay, which is located at the northern end of Japanese Honshu Island, are investigated using winds derived from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images and a numerical model. A characteristic wind pattern over the bay was evidenced from analysis of 118 SAR images and coincided with in situ observations. Wind is topographically steered with easterly winds entering the bay through the terrestrial gap and stronger wind blowing over the central water toward its mouth. Nearshore winds are weaker due to terrestrial blockages. Using the Princeton Ocean Model, we investigated currents forced by the observed spatially dependent wind field. The predicted current pattern agrees well with available observations. For a uniform wind field of equal magnitude and average direction, the circulation pattern departs from observations demonstrating that vorticity input due to spatially dependent wind stress is essential in generation of the wind-driven current in Mutsu Bay.

  10. On the Predictability of Hub Height Winds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Draxl, Caroline

    Wind energy is a major source of power in over 70 countries across the world, and the worldwide share of wind energy in electricity consumption is growing. The introduction of signicant amounts of wind energy into power systems makes accurate wind forecasting a crucial element of modern electrical...... grids. These systems require forecasts with temporal scales of tens of minutes to a few days in advance at wind farm locations. Traditionally these forecasts predict the wind at turbine hub heights; this information is then converted by transmission system operators and energy companies into predictions...... of power output at wind farms. Since the power available in the wind is proportional to the wind speed cubed, even small wind forecast errors result in large power prediction errors. Accurate wind forecasts are worth billions of dollars annually; forecast improvements will result in reduced costs...

  11. Wind Power Prediction Considering Nonlinear Atmospheric Disturbances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yagang Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the effect of nonlinear atmospheric disturbances on wind power prediction. A Lorenz system is introduced as an atmospheric disturbance model. Three new improved wind forecasting models combined with a Lorenz comprehensive disturbance are put forward in this study. Firstly, we define the form of the Lorenz disturbance variable and the wind speed perturbation formula. Then, different artificial neural network models are used to verify the new idea and obtain better wind speed predictions. Finally we separately use the original and improved wind speed series to predict the related wind power. This proves that the corrected wind speed provides higher precision wind power predictions. This research presents a totally new direction in the wind prediction field and has profound theoretical research value and practical guiding significance.

  12. Conditional prediction intervals of wind power generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, Georges

    2010-01-01

    A generic method for the providing of prediction intervals of wind power generation is described. Prediction intervals complement the more common wind power point forecasts, by giving a range of potential outcomes for a given probability, their so-called nominal coverage rate. Ideally they inform...... on the characteristics of prediction errors for providing conditional interval forecasts. By simultaneously generating prediction intervals with various nominal coverage rates, one obtains full predictive distributions of wind generation. Adapted resampling is applied here to the case of an onshore Danish wind farm...... to the case of a large number of wind farms in Europe and Australia among others is finally discussed....

  13. Bayesian Predictive Models for Rayleigh Wind Speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shahirinia, Amir; Hajizadeh, Amin; Yu, David C

    2017-01-01

    predictive model of the wind speed aggregates the non-homogeneous distributions into a single continuous distribution. Therefore, the result is able to capture the variation among the probability distributions of the wind speeds at the turbines’ locations in a wind farm. More specifically, instead of using...... a wind speed distribution whose parameters are known or estimated, the parameters are considered as random whose variations are according to probability distributions. The Bayesian predictive model for a Rayleigh which only has a single model scale parameter has been proposed. Also closed-form posterior...... and predictive inferences under different reasonable choices of prior distribution in sensitivity analysis have been presented....

  14. Will surface winds weaken in response to global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jian; Foltz, Gregory R.; Soden, Brian J.; Huang, Gang; He, Jie; Dong, Changming

    2016-12-01

    The surface Walker and tropical tropospheric circulations have been inferred to slow down from historical observations and model projections, yet analysis of large-scale surface wind predictions is lacking. Satellite measurements of surface wind speed indicate strengthening trends averaged over the global and tropical oceans that are supported by precipitation and evaporation changes. Here we use corrected anemometer-based observations to show that the surface wind speed has not decreased in the averaged tropical oceans, despite its reduction in the region of the Walker circulation. Historical simulations and future projections for climate change also suggest a near-zero wind speed trend averaged in space, regardless of the Walker cell change. In the tropics, the sea surface temperature pattern effect acts against the large-scale circulation slow-down. For higher latitudes, the surface winds shift poleward along with the eddy-driven mid-latitude westerlies, resulting in a very small contribution to the global change in surface wind speed. Despite its importance for surface wind speed change, the influence of the SST pattern change on global-mean rainfall is insignificant since it cannot substantially alter the global energy balance. As a result, the precipitation response to global warming remains ‘muted’ relative to atmospheric moisture increase. Our results therefore show consistency between projections and observations of surface winds and precipitation.

  15. Wind farms production: Control and prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Fouly, Tarek Hussein Mostafa

    Wind energy resources, unlike dispatchable central station generation, produce power dependable on external irregular source and that is the incident wind speed which does not always blow when electricity is needed. This results in the variability, unpredictability, and uncertainty of wind resources. Therefore, the integration of wind facilities to utility electrical grid presents a major challenge to power system operator. Such integration has significant impact on the optimum power flow, transmission congestion, power quality issues, system stability, load dispatch, and economic analysis. Due to the irregular nature of wind power production, accurate prediction represents the major challenge to power system operators. Therefore, in this thesis two novel models are proposed for wind speed and wind power prediction. One proposed model is dedicated to short-term prediction (one-hour ahead) and the other involves medium term prediction (one-day ahead). The accuracy of the proposed models is revealed by comparing their results with the corresponding values of a reference prediction model referred to as the persistent model. Utility grid operation is not only impacted by the uncertainty of the future production of wind farms, but also by the variability of their current production and how the active and reactive power exchange with the grid is controlled. To address this particular task, a control technique for wind turbines, driven by doubly-fed induction generators (DFIGs), is developed to regulate the terminal voltage by equally sharing the generated/absorbed reactive power between the rotor-side and the gridside converters. To highlight the impact of the new developed technique in reducing the power loss in the generator set, an economic analysis is carried out. Moreover, a new aggregated model for wind farms is proposed that accounts for the irregularity of the incident wind distribution throughout the farm layout. Specifically, this model includes the wake effect

  16. [Fire behavior of ground surface fuels in Pinus koraiensis and Quercus mongolica mixed forest under no wind and zero slope condition: a prediction with extended Rothermel model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ji-Li; Liu, Bo-Fei; Chu, Teng-Fei; Di, Xue-Ying; Jin, Sen

    2012-06-01

    A laboratory burning experiment was conducted to measure the fire spread speed, residual time, reaction intensity, fireline intensity, and flame length of the ground surface fuels collected from a Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) and Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica) mixed stand in Maoer Mountains of Northeast China under the conditions of no wind, zero slope, and different moisture content, load, and mixture ratio of the fuels. The results measured were compared with those predicted by the extended Rothermel model to test the performance of the model, especially for the effects of two different weighting methods on the fire behavior modeling of the mixed fuels. With the prediction of the model, the mean absolute errors of the fire spread speed and reaction intensity of the fuels were 0.04 m X min(-1) and 77 kW X m(-2), their mean relative errors were 16% and 22%, while the mean absolute errors of residual time, fireline intensity and flame length were 15.5 s, 17.3 kW X m(-1), and 9.7 cm, and their mean relative errors were 55.5%, 48.7%, and 24%, respectively, indicating that the predicted values of residual time, fireline intensity, and flame length were lower than the observed ones. These errors could be regarded as the lower limits for the application of the extended Rothermel model in predicting the fire behavior of similar fuel types, and provide valuable information for using the model to predict the fire behavior under the similar field conditions. As a whole, the two different weighting methods did not show significant difference in predicting the fire behavior of the mixed fuels by extended Rothermel model. When the proportion of Korean pine fuels was lower, the predicted values of spread speed and reaction intensity obtained by surface area weighting method and those of fireline intensity and flame length obtained by load weighting method were higher; when the proportion of Korean pine needles was higher, the contrary results were obtained.

  17. Predictability of Japan/East Sea (JES) System to Uncertain Initial/Lateral Boundary Conditions and Surface Winds

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Fang, Chin-Lung

    2003-01-01

    .... Change in either initial or boundary condition leads to a variety of model solutions. It is necessary to specify realistic initial and boundary conditions to achieve better understanding and prediction of the ocean behavior...

  18. Tidal influence on offshore wind fields and resource predictions[Efficient Development of Offshore Windfarms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khan, D. [Entec UK Ltd., Doherty Innovation Centre, Penicuik (United Kingdom); Infield, D. [Loughborough Univ., Centre for Renewable Energy Systems Tecnology, Loughborough (United Kingdom)

    2002-03-01

    The rise and fall of the sea surface due to tides effectively moves an offshore wind turbine hub through the wind shear profile. This effect is quantified using measured data from 3 offshore UK sites. Statistical evidence of the influence of tide on mean wind speed and turbulence is presented. The implications of this effect for predicting offshore wind resource are outlined. (au)

  19. Wind Power Prediction using Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giebel, Gregor; Badger, Jake; Landberg, Lars

    2005-01-01

    offshore wind farm and the whole Jutland/Funen area. The utilities used these forecasts for maintenance planning, fuel consumption estimates and over-the-weekend trading on the Leipzig power exchange. Othernotable scientific results include the better accuracy of forecasts made up from a simple...... superposition of two NWP provider (in our case, DMI and DWD), an investigation of the merits of a parameterisation of the turbulent kinetic energy within thedelivered wind speed forecasts, and the finding that a “naïve” downscaling of each of the coarse ECMWF ensemble members with higher resolution HIRLAM did...

  20. Short-term wind power prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joensen, Alfred K.

    2003-01-01

    , and to implement these models and methods in an on-line software application. The economical value of having predictions available is also briefly considered. The summary report outlines the background and motivation for developing wind power prediction models. The meteorological theory which is relevant......The present thesis consists of 10 research papers published during the period 1997-2002 together with a summary report. The objective of the work described in the thesis is to develop models and methods for calculation of high accuracy predictions of wind power generated electricity...

  1. Modeling wind adjustment factor and midflame wind speed for Rothermel's surface fire spread model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    2012-01-01

    Rothermel's surface fire spread model was developed to use a value for the wind speed that affects surface fire, called midflame wind speed. Models have been developed to adjust 20-ft wind speed to midflame wind speed for sheltered and unsheltered surface fuel. In this report, Wind Adjustment Factor (WAF) model equations are given, and the BehavePlus fire modeling...

  2. Neural Network Classifiers for Local Wind Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kretzschmar, Ralf; Eckert, Pierre; Cattani, Daniel; Eggimann, Fritz

    2004-05-01

    This paper evaluates the quality of neural network classifiers for wind speed and wind gust prediction with prediction lead times between +1 and +24 h. The predictions were realized based on local time series and model data. The selection of appropriate input features was initiated by time series analysis and completed by empirical comparison of neural network classifiers trained on several choices of input features. The selected input features involved day time, yearday, features from a single wind observation device at the site of interest, and features derived from model data. The quality of the resulting classifiers was benchmarked against persistence for two different sites in Switzerland. The neural network classifiers exhibited superior quality when compared with persistence judged on a specific performance measure, hit and false-alarm rates.

  3. Assessment and prediction of wind turbine noise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lowson, M.V.

    1993-01-01

    The significance of basic aerodynamic noise sources for wind turbine noise are assessed, using information on the aero-acoustic mechanisms of other rotors, which have been studied in depth for many years. From the analysis, areas of potential improvement in wind turbine noise prediction are defined. Suggestions are made for approaches to wind turbine noise control which separate the noise problems at cut-in from those at rated power. Some of these offer the possibility of noise reduction without unfavourable effects on performance. Based on this analysis, a new model for prediction of wind turbine noise is presented and comparisons made between prediction and experiment. The model is based on well established aeroacoustic theory and published laboratory data for the two principal sources, inflow turbulence and boundary layer trailing edge interaction. The new method gives good agreement with experiment with the case studied so far. Parametric trends and sensitivities for the model are presented. Comparisons with previous prediction methods are also given. A consequence of the new model is to put more emphasis on boundary layer trailing edge interaction as a noise source. There are prospects for reducing noise from this source detail changes to the wind turbine design. (author)

  4. Load prediction of stall regulated wind turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoerck, A.; Dahlberg, J.Aa. [Aeronautical Research Inst. of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden); Carlen, I. [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Div. of Marine Structural Engineering; Ganander, H. [Teknikgruppen AB, Sollentua (Sweden)

    1996-12-01

    Measurements of blade loads on a turbine situated in a small wind farm shows that the highest blade loads occur during operation close to the peak power i.e. when the turbine operates in the stall region. In this study the extensive experimental data base has been utilised to compare loads in selected campaigns with corresponding load predictions. The predictions are based on time domain simulations of the wind turbine structure, performed by the aeroelastic code VIDYN. In the calculations a model were adopted in order to include the effects of dynamic stall. This paper describes the work carried out so far within the project and key results. 5 refs, 10 figs

  5. Improving urban wind flow predictions through data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa, Jorge; Gorle, Catherine

    2017-11-01

    Computational fluid dynamic is fundamentally important to several aspects in the design of sustainable and resilient urban environments. The prediction of the flow pattern for example can help to determine pedestrian wind comfort, air quality, optimal building ventilation strategies, and wind loading on buildings. However, the significant variability and uncertainty in the boundary conditions poses a challenge when interpreting results as a basis for design decisions. To improve our understanding of the uncertainties in the models and develop better predictive tools, we started a pilot field measurement campaign on Stanford University's campus combined with a detailed numerical prediction of the wind flow. The experimental data is being used to investigate the potential use of data assimilation and inverse techniques to better characterize the uncertainty in the results and improve the confidence in current wind flow predictions. We consider the incoming wind direction and magnitude as unknown parameters and perform a set of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes simulations to build a polynomial chaos expansion response surface at each sensor location. We subsequently use an inverse ensemble Kalman filter to retrieve an estimate for the probabilistic density function of the inflow parameters. Once these distributions are obtained, the forward analysis is repeated to obtain predictions for the flow field in the entire urban canopy and the results are compared with the experimental data. We would like to acknowledge high-performance computing support from Yellowstone (ark:/85065/d7wd3xhc) provided by NCAR.

  6. Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    2016-11-29

    Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

  7. Predicting annoyance by wind turbine noise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, S.A.; Vos, H.; Eisses, A.R.; Pedersen, E.

    2010-01-01

    While wind turbines have beneficial effects for the environment, they inevitably generate environmental noise. In order to protect residents against unacceptable levels of noise, exposure-response relationships are needed to predict the expected percentage of people annoyed or highly annoyed at a

  8. Predictability and Variability of Wave and Wind

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chozas, Julia Fernandez; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Sørensen, Hans Christian

    This project covers two fields of study: a) Wave energy predictability and electricity markets. b) Variability of the power output of WECs in diversified systems : diversified renewable systems with wave and offshore wind production. See page 2-4 in the report for a executive summery....

  9. Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torcasio, Rosa Claudia; Federico, Stefano; Calidonna, Claudia Roberta; Avolio, Elenio; Drofa, Oxana; Landi, Tony Christian; Malguzzi, Piero; Buzzi, Andrea; Bonasoni, Paolo

    2016-03-01

    Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market. Here, a 1-year (1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013) three-model ensemble (TME) experiment for wind prediction is considered. The models employed, run operationally at National Research Council - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model), and MOLOCH (MOdello LOCale in H coordinates). The area considered for the study is southern Italy and the measurements used for the forecast verification are those of the GTS (Global Telecommunication System). Comparison with observations is made every 3 h up to 48 h of forecast lead time. Results show that the three-model ensemble outperforms the forecast of each individual model. The RMSE improvement compared to the best model is between 22 and 30 %, depending on the season. It is also shown that the three-model ensemble outperforms the IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) for the surface wind forecasts. Notably, the three-model ensemble forecast performs better than each unbiased model, showing the added value of the ensemble technique. Finally, the sensitivity of the three-model ensemble RMSE to the length of the training period is analysed.

  10. Statistical downscaling of historical monthly mean winds over a coastal region of complex terrain. II. Predicting wind components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamp, Derek van der [University of Victoria, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC (Canada); University of Victoria, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Victoria, BC (Canada); Curry, Charles L. [Environment Canada University of Victoria, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); University of Victoria, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Victoria, BC (Canada); Monahan, Adam H. [University of Victoria, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Victoria, BC (Canada)

    2012-04-15

    A regression-based downscaling technique was applied to monthly mean surface wind observations from stations throughout western Canada as well as from buoys in the Northeast Pacific Ocean over the period 1979-2006. A predictor set was developed from principal component analysis of the three wind components at 500 hPa and mean sea-level pressure taken from the NCEP Reanalysis II. Building on the results of a companion paper, Curry et al. (Clim Dyn 2011), the downscaling was applied to both wind speed and wind components, in an effort to evaluate the utility of each type of predictand. Cross-validated prediction skill varied strongly with season, with autumn and summer displaying the highest and lowest skill, respectively. In most cases wind components were predicted with better skill than wind speeds. The predictive ability of wind components was found to be strongly related to their orientation. Wind components with the best predictions were often oriented along topographically significant features such as constricted valleys, mountain ranges or ocean channels. This influence of directionality on predictive ability is most prominent during autumn and winter at inland sites with complex topography. Stations in regions with relatively flat terrain (where topographic steering is minimal) exhibit inter-station consistencies including region-wide seasonal shifts in the direction of the best predicted wind component. The conclusion that wind components can be skillfully predicted only over a limited range of directions at most stations limits the scope of statistically downscaled wind speed predictions. It seems likely that such limitations apply to other regions of complex terrain as well. (orig.)

  11. Microwave Remote Sensing Modeling of Ocean Surface Salinity and Winds Using an Empirical Sea Surface Spectrum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yueh, Simon H.

    2004-01-01

    Active and passive microwave remote sensing techniques have been investigated for the remote sensing of ocean surface wind and salinity. We revised an ocean surface spectrum using the CMOD-5 geophysical model function (GMF) for the European Remote Sensing (ERS) C-band scatterometer and the Ku-band GMF for the NASA SeaWinds scatterometer. The predictions of microwave brightness temperatures from this model agree well with satellite, aircraft and tower-based microwave radiometer data. This suggests that the impact of surface roughness on microwave brightness temperatures and radar scattering coefficients of sea surfaces can be consistently characterized by a roughness spectrum, providing physical basis for using combined active and passive remote sensing techniques for ocean surface wind and salinity remote sensing.

  12. Model Predictive Control with Constraints of a Wind Turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lars Christian; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2007-01-01

    Model predictive control of wind turbines offer a more systematic approach of constructing controllers that handle constraints while focusing on the main control objective. In this article several controllers are designed for different wind conditions and appropriate switching conditions ensure a...... an efficient control of the wind turbine over the entire range of wind speeds. Both onshore and floating offshore wind turbines are tested with the controllers.......Model predictive control of wind turbines offer a more systematic approach of constructing controllers that handle constraints while focusing on the main control objective. In this article several controllers are designed for different wind conditions and appropriate switching conditions ensure...

  13. The wind power prediction research based on mind evolutionary algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Ling; Zhao, Xinjian; Ji, Tianming; Miao, Jingwen; Cui, Haina

    2018-04-01

    When the wind power is connected to the power grid, its characteristics of fluctuation, intermittent and randomness will affect the stability of the power system. The wind power prediction can guarantee the power quality and reduce the operating cost of power system. There were some limitations in several traditional wind power prediction methods. On the basis, the wind power prediction method based on Mind Evolutionary Algorithm (MEA) is put forward and a prediction model is provided. The experimental results demonstrate that MEA performs efficiently in term of the wind power prediction. The MEA method has broad prospect of engineering application.

  14. Wind Power Plant Prediction by Using Neural Networks: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Z.; Gao, W.; Wan, Y. H.; Muljadi, E.

    2012-08-01

    This paper introduces a method of short-term wind power prediction for a wind power plant by training neural networks based on historical data of wind speed and wind direction. The model proposed is shown to achieve a high accuracy with respect to the measured data.

  15. Wind speed prediction using statistical regression and neural network

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Prediction of wind speed in the atmospheric boundary layer is important for wind energy assess- ment,satellite launching and aviation,etc.There are a few techniques available for wind speed prediction,which require a minimum number of input parameters.Four different statistical techniques,viz.,curve fitting,Auto Regressive ...

  16. Dst Prediction Based on Solar Wind Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoon-Kyung Park

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We reevaluate the Burton equation (Burton et al. 1975 of predicting Dst index using high quality hourly solar wind data supplied by the ACE satellite for the period from 1998 to 2006. Sixty magnetic storms with monotonously decreasing main phase are selected. In order to determine the injection term (Q and the decay time (tau of the equation, we examine the relationships between Dst* and VB_s, Delta Dst* and VB_s, and Delta Dst* and Dst* during the magnetic storms. For this analysis, we take into account one hour of the propagation time from the ACE satellite to the magnetopause, and a half hour of the response time of the magnetosphere/ring current to the solar wind forcing. The injection term is found to be Q({nT}/h=-3.56VB_s for VB_s>0.5mV/m and Q({nT}/h=0 for VB_s leq0.5mV/m. The tau (hour is estimated as 0.060 Dst* + 16.65 for Dst*>-175nT and 6.15 hours for Dst* leq -175nT. Based on these empirical relationships, we predict the 60 magnetic storms and find that the correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted Dst* is 0.88. To evaluate the performance of our prediction scheme, the 60 magnetic storms are predicted again using the models by Burton et al. (1975 and O'Brien & McPherron (2000a. The correlation coefficients thus obtained are 0.85, the same value for both of the two models. In this respect, our model is slightly improved over the other two models as far as the correlation coefficients is concerned. Particularly our model does a better job than the other two models in predicting intense magnetic storms (Dst* lesssim -200nT.

  17. Using wind tunnels to predict bird mortality in wind farms: the case of griffon vultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lucas, Manuela; Ferrer, Miguel; Janss, Guyonne F E

    2012-01-01

    Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topography and wind flows in relation to flight paths of griffon vultures, using a scaled model of the wind farm area in an aerodynamic wind tunnel, and test the difference between the observed flight paths of griffon vultures and the predominant wind flows. Different wind currents for each wind direction in the aerodynamic model were observed. Simulations of wind flows in a wind tunnel were compared with observed flight paths of griffon vultures. No statistical differences were detected between the observed flight trajectories of griffon vultures and the wind passages observed in our wind tunnel model. A significant correlation was found between dead vultures predicted proportion of vultures crossing those cells according to the aerodynamic model. Griffon vulture flight routes matched the predominant wind flows in the area (i.e. they followed the routes where less flight effort was needed). We suggest using these kinds of simulations to predict flight paths over complex terrains can inform the location of wind turbines and thereby reduce soaring bird mortality.

  18. Using wind tunnels to predict bird mortality in wind farms: the case of griffon vultures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuela de Lucas

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topography and wind flows in relation to flight paths of griffon vultures, using a scaled model of the wind farm area in an aerodynamic wind tunnel, and test the difference between the observed flight paths of griffon vultures and the predominant wind flows. Different wind currents for each wind direction in the aerodynamic model were observed. Simulations of wind flows in a wind tunnel were compared with observed flight paths of griffon vultures. No statistical differences were detected between the observed flight trajectories of griffon vultures and the wind passages observed in our wind tunnel model. A significant correlation was found between dead vultures predicted proportion of vultures crossing those cells according to the aerodynamic model. CONCLUSIONS: Griffon vulture flight routes matched the predominant wind flows in the area (i.e. they followed the routes where less flight effort was needed. We suggest using these kinds of simulations to predict flight paths over complex terrains can inform the location of wind turbines and thereby reduce soaring bird mortality.

  19. Wind direction dependent vertical wind shear and surface roughness parameter in two different coastal environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bagavathsingh, A.; Srinivas, C.V.; Baskaran, R.; Venkatraman, B.; Sardar Maran, P.

    2016-01-01

    Atmospheric boundary layer parameters and surface layer parameterizations are important prerequisites for air pollution dispersion analysis. The turbulent flow characteristics vary at coastal and inland sites where the nuclear facilities are situated. Many pollution sources and their dispersion occur within the roughness sub layer in the lower atmosphere. In this study analysis of wind direction dependence vertical wind shear, surface roughness lengths and surface layer wind condition has been carried out at a coastal and the urban coastal site for the different wind flow regime. The differential response of the near coastal and inland urban site SBL parameters (wind shear, roughness length, etc) was examined as a function of wind direction

  20. A model to predict the power output from wind farms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L. [Riso National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

    1997-12-31

    This paper will describe a model that can predict the power output from wind farms. To give examples of input the model is applied to a wind farm in Texas. The predictions are generated from forecasts from the NGM model of NCEP. These predictions are made valid at individual sites (wind farms) by applying a matrix calculated by the sub-models of WASP (Wind Atlas Application and Analysis Program). The actual wind farm production is calculated using the Riso PARK model. Because of the preliminary nature of the results, they will not be given. However, similar results from Europe will be given.

  1. Wind Resource Estimation using QuikSCAT Ocean Surface Winds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Qing; Zhang, Guosheng; Cheng, Yongcun

    2011-01-01

    In this study, the offshore wind resources in the East China Sea and South China Sea were estimated from over ten years of QuikSCAT scatterometer wind products. Since the errors of these products are larger close to the coast due to the land contamination of radar backscatter signal...... and the complexity of air-sea interaction processes, an empirical relationship that adjusts QuikSCAT winds in coastal waters was first proposed based on vessel measurements. Then the shape and scale parameters of Weibull function are determined for wind resource estimation. The wind roses are also plotted. Results...

  2. Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lars Christian

    Wind turbines play a major role in the transformation from a fossil fuel based energy production to a more sustainable production of energy. Total-cost-of-ownership is an important parameter when investors decide in which energy technology they should place their capital. Modern wind turbines...... the need for maintenance of the wind turbine. Either way, better total-cost-of-ownership for wind turbine operators can be achieved by improved control of the wind turbines. Wind turbine control can be improved in two ways, by improving the model on which the controller bases its design or by improving...

  3. Skill forecasting from ensemble predictions of wind power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Madsen, Henrik

    2009-01-01

    Optimal management and trading of wind generation calls for the providing of uncertainty estimates along with the commonly provided short-term wind power point predictions. Alternative approaches for the use of probabilistic forecasting are introduced. More precisely, focus is given to prediction...... risk indices aiming to give a comprehensive signal on the expected level of forecast uncertainty. Ensemble predictions of wind generation are used as input. A proposal for the definition of prediction risk indices is given. Such skill forecasts are based on the spread of ensemble forecasts (i.e. a set...... of alternative scenarios for the coming period) for a single prediction horizon or over a took-ahead period. It is shown on the test case of a Danish offshore wind farm how these prediction risk indices may be related to several levels of forecast uncertainty (and potential energy imbalances). Wind power...

  4. Using Wind Tunnels to Predict Bird Mortality in Wind Farms: The Case of Griffon Vultures

    OpenAIRE

    de Lucas, Manuela; Ferrer, Miguel; Janss, Guyonne F. E.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. Methodology/Principal Findings: As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topo...

  5. A methodology for the prediction of offshore wind energy resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, S J; Watson, G M [Rutherford Appleton Lab., Oxfordshire (United Kingdom); Holt, R.J. [Univ. of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich (United Kingdom)] Barthelmie, R.J. [Risoe National Lab., Dept. of Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics, Roskilde (Denmark); Zuylen, E.J. van [Ecofys Energy and Environment, Utrecht (Netherlands)] Cleijne, J.W. [Kema Sustainable, Arnhem (Netherlands)

    1999-03-01

    There are increasing constraints on the development of wind power on land. Recently, there has been a move to develop wind power offshore, though the amount of measured wind speed data at potential offshore wind farm sites is sparse. We present a novel methodology for the prediction of offshore wind power resources which is being applied to European Union waters. The first stage is to calculate the geostrophic wind from long-term pressure fields over the sea area of interest. Secondly, the geostrophic wind is transformed to the sea level using WA{sup s}P, taking account of near shore topography. Finally, these values are corrected for land/sea climatology (stability) effects using an analytical Coastal discontinuity Model (CDM). These values are further refined using high resolution offshore data at selected sites. The final values are validated against existing offshore datasets. Preliminary results are presented of the geostrophic wind speed validation in European Union waters. (au)

  6. Effectiveness of WRF wind direction for retrieving coastal sea surface wind from synthetic aperture radar

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Takeyama, Yuko; Ohsawa, Teruo; Kozai, Katsutoshi

    2013-01-01

    Wind direction is required as input to the geophysical model function (GMF) for the retrieval of sea surface wind speed from a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. The present study verifies the effectiveness of using the wind direction obtained from the weather research and forecasting model (...

  7. Wind Predictions Upstream Wind Turbines from a LiDAR Database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soledad Le Clainche

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a new method to predict the wind velocity upstream a horizontal axis wind turbine from a set of light detection and ranging (LiDAR measurements. The method uses higher order dynamic mode decomposition (HODMD to construct a reduced order model (ROM that can be extrapolated in space. LiDAR measurements have been carried out upstream a wind turbine at six different planes perpendicular to the wind turbine axis. This new HODMD-based ROM predicts with high accuracy the wind velocity during a timespan of 24 h in a plane of measurements that is more than 225 m far away from the wind turbine. Moreover, the technique introduced is general and obtained with an almost negligible computational cost. This fact makes it possible to extend its application to both vertical axis wind turbines and real-time operation.

  8. Model predictive control for wind power gradients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hovgaard, Tobias Gybel; Boyd, Stephen; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2015-01-01

    We consider the operation of a wind turbine and a connected local battery or other electrical storage device, taking into account varying wind speed, with the goal of maximizing the total energy generated while respecting limits on the time derivative (gradient) of power delivered to the grid. We...... ranges. The system dynamics are quite non-linear, and the constraints and objectives are not convex functions of the control inputs, so the resulting optimal control problem is difficult to solve globally. In this paper, we show that by a novel change of variables, which focuses on power flows, we can...... wind data and modern wind forecasting methods. The simulation results using real wind data demonstrate the ability to reject the disturbances from fast changes in wind speed, ensuring certain power gradients, with an insignificant loss in energy production....

  9. Improved Wind Speed Prediction Using Empirical Mode Decomposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZHANG, Y.

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Wind power industry plays an important role in promoting the development of low-carbon economic and energy transformation in the world. However, the randomness and volatility of wind speed series restrict the healthy development of the wind power industry. Accurate wind speed prediction is the key to realize the stability of wind power integration and to guarantee the safe operation of the power system. In this paper, combined with the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD, the Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBF and the Least Square Support Vector Machine (SVM, an improved wind speed prediction model based on Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD-RBF-LS-SVM is proposed. The prediction result indicates that compared with the traditional prediction model (RBF, LS-SVM, the EMD-RBF-LS-SVM model can weaken the random fluctuation to a certain extent and improve the short-term accuracy of wind speed prediction significantly. In a word, this research will significantly reduce the impact of wind power instability on the power grid, ensure the power grid supply and demand balance, reduce the operating costs in the grid-connected systems, and enhance the market competitiveness of the wind power.

  10. Wind speed and direction shears with associated vertical motion during strong surface winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, M. B.; Camp, D. W.

    1984-01-01

    Strong surface winds recorded at the NASA 150-Meter Ground Winds Tower facility at Kennedy Space Center, Florida, are analyzed to present occurrences representative of wind shear and vertical motion known to be hazardous to the ascent and descent of conventional aircraft and the Space Shuttle. Graphical (percentage frequency distributions) and mathematical (maximum, mean, standard deviation) descriptions of wind speed and direction shears and associated updrafts and downdrafts are included as functions of six vertical layers and one horizontal distance for twenty 5-second intervals of parameters sampled simultaneously at the rate of ten per second during a period of high surface winds.

  11. Prediction models for wind speed at turbine locations in a wind farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Torben; Bak, Thomas; Soltani, Mohsen

    2011-01-01

    In wind farms, individual turbines disturb the wind field by generating wakes that influence other turbines in the farm. From a control point of view, there is an interest in dynamic optimization of the balance between fatigue and production, and an understanding of the relationship between turbines...... on standard turbine measurements such as rotor speed and power produced, an effective wind speed, which represents the wind field averaged over the rotor disc, is derived. The effective wind speed estimator is based on a continuous–discrete extended Kalman filter that takes advantage of nonlinear time varying...... on the result related to effective wind speed, it is possible to predict wind speeds at neighboring turbines, with a separation of over 700 m, up to 1 min ahead reducing the error by 30% compared with a persistence method. The methodological results are demonstrated on data from an off-shore wind farm...

  12. Wind prediction in Malaysia using Mycielski-1 approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S. W.; Kok, B. C.; Goh, K. C.; Goh, H. H.

    2012-11-01

    In this paper, the wind speed prediction in Kudat, Malaysia had been done by using Mycielski-1 approach. There is some improvement in obtaining the random number of Mycielski-1. The wind prediction is important to study a favorable site's wind potential. The prediction is based on 3 years history data provided by Meteorology Department of Malaysia and 1 year data as the reference to check the accuracy of this algorithm. The basic concept of this algorithm is to predict the next value by looking to history data. The result shows the prediction of Mycielski-1 algorithm is promising. The wind speed is predicted in order to obtain the mean power for energy planning.

  13. Wind power prediction based on genetic neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Suhan

    2017-04-01

    The scale of grid connected wind farms keeps increasing. To ensure the stability of power system operation, make a reasonable scheduling scheme and improve the competitiveness of wind farm in the electricity generation market, it's important to accurately forecast the short-term wind power. To reduce the influence of the nonlinear relationship between the disturbance factor and the wind power, the improved prediction model based on genetic algorithm and neural network method is established. To overcome the shortcomings of long training time of BP neural network and easy to fall into local minimum and improve the accuracy of the neural network, genetic algorithm is adopted to optimize the parameters and topology of neural network. The historical data is used as input to predict short-term wind power. The effectiveness and feasibility of the method is verified by the actual data of a certain wind farm as an example.

  14. Indian Ocean surface winds from NCMRWF analysis as compared

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The quality of the surface wind analysis at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (NCMRWF), New Delhi over the tropical Indian Ocean and its improvement in 2001 are examined by comparing it with in situ buoy measurements and satellite derived surface winds from NASA QuikSCAT satellite (QSCT) ...

  15. Influence of Persistent Wind Scour on the Surface Mass Balance of Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Indrani; Bell, Robin E.; Scambos, Ted A.; Wolovick, Michael; Creyts, Timothy T.; Studinger, Michael; Fearson, Nicholas; Nicolas, Julien P.; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; vandenBroeke, Michiel R.

    2013-01-01

    Accurate quantification of surface snow accumulation over Antarctica is a key constraint for estimates of the Antarctic mass balance, as well as climatic interpretations of ice-core records. Over Antarctica, near-surface winds accelerate down relatively steep surface slopes, eroding and sublimating the snow. This wind scour results in numerous localized regions (Antarctica. The scour zones are persistent because they are controlled by bedrock topography. On the basis of our Dome A observations, we develop an empirical model to predict wind-scour zones across the Antarctic continent and find that these zones are predominantly located in East Antarctica. We estimate that approx. 2.7-6.6% of the surface area of Antarctica has persistent negative net accumulation due to wind scour, which suggests that, across the continent, the snow mass input is overestimated by 11-36.5 Gt /yr in present surface-mass-balance calculations.

  16. Building Chinese wind data for Wind Erosion Prediction System using surrogate US data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wind erosion is a global problem, especially in arid and semiarid regions of the world, which leads to land degradation and atmosphere pollution. The process-based Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS), developed by the USDA, is capable of simulating the windblown soil loss with changing weather and...

  17. VT Predicted Mean Wind Speed - 70 meter height

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) Wind speed predictions at 70m are generated by a numerical model that simulates weather conditions over a 15-year period, taking into account...

  18. VT Predicted Mean Wind Power - 50 meter height

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) Wind power predictions at 50m are generated by a numerical model that simulates weather conditions over a 15-year period, taking into account...

  19. VT Predicted Mean Wind Speed - 30 meter height

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) Wind speed predictions at 30m are generated by a numerical model that simulates weather conditions over a 15-year period, taking into account...

  20. WPPT, a tool for on-line wind power prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skov Nielsen, T. [Dept. of Mathematical Modelling (IMM-DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Madsen, H. [Dept. of Mathematical Modelling (IMM-DTU) Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Toefting, J. [Elsam, Fredericia (Denmark)

    2004-07-01

    This paper dsecribes VPPT (Wind Power Prediction Tool), an application for assessing the future available wind power up to 36 hours ahead in time. WPPT has been installed in the Eltra/Elsam central dispatch center since October 1997. The paper describes the prediction model used, the actual implementation of WPPT as well as the experience gained by the operators in the dispatch center (au)

  1. Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER) Users Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    ARL-TR-7573● JAN 2016 US Army Research Laboratory Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER) User’s Guide by David P Sauter...manufacturer’s or trade names does not constitute an official endorsement or approval of the use thereof. Destroy this report when it is no longer needed. Do...not return it to the originator. ARL-TR-7573 ● JAN 2016 US Army Research Laboratory Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER

  2. How important is getting the land surface energy exchange correct in WRF for wind energy forecasting?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wharton, S.; Simpson, M.; Osuna, J. L.; Newman, J. F.; Biraud, S.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is plagued with difficulties in accurately predicting the occurrence and intensity of atmospheric conditions at the heights spanned by industrial-scale turbines (~ 40 to 200 m above ground level). Better simulation of the relevant physics would enable operational practices such as integration of large fractions of wind power into power grids, scheduling maintenance on wind energy facilities, and deciding design criteria based on complex loads for next-generation turbines and siting. Accurately simulating the surface energy processes in numerical models may be critically important for wind energy forecasting as energy exchange at the surface strongly drives atmospheric mixing (i.e., stability) in the lower layers of the planetary boundary layer (PBL), which in turn largely determines wind shear and turbulence at heights found in the turbine rotor-disk. We hypothesize that simulating accurate a surface-atmosphere energy coupling should lead to more accurate predictions of wind speed and turbulence at heights within the turbine rotor-disk. Here, we tested 10 different land surface model configurations in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model including Noah, Noah-MP, SSiB, Pleim-Xiu, RUC, and others to evaluate (1) the accuracy of simulated surface energy fluxes to flux tower measurements, (2) the accuracy of forecasted wind speeds to observations at rotor-disk heights, and (3) the sensitivity of forecasting hub-height rotor disk wind speed to the choice of land surface model. WRF was run for four, two-week periods covering both summer and winter periods over the Southern Great Plains ARM site in Oklahoma. Continuous measurements of surface energy fluxes and lidar-based wind speed, direction and turbulence were also available. The SGP ARM site provided an ideal location for this evaluation as it centrally located in the wind-rich Great Plains and multi-MW wind farms are rapidly expanding in the area. We found significant differences in

  3. Frequency weighted model predictive control of wind turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klauco, Martin; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Mirzaei, Mahmood

    2013-01-01

    This work is focused on applying frequency weighted model predictive control (FMPC) on three blade horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT). A wind turbine is a very complex, non-linear system influenced by a stochastic wind speed variation. The reduced dynamics considered in this work are the rotatio...... predictive controller are presented. Statistical comparison between frequency weighted MPC, standard MPC and baseline PI controller is shown as well.......This work is focused on applying frequency weighted model predictive control (FMPC) on three blade horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT). A wind turbine is a very complex, non-linear system influenced by a stochastic wind speed variation. The reduced dynamics considered in this work...... are the rotational degree of freedom of the rotor and the tower for-aft movement. The MPC design is based on a receding horizon policy and a linearised model of the wind turbine. Due to the change of dynamics according to wind speed, several linearisation points must be considered and the control design adjusted...

  4. Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines using Uncertain LIDAR Measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood; Soltani, Mohsen; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2013-01-01

    , we simplify state prediction for the MPC. Consequently, the control problem of the nonlinear system is simplified into a quadratic programming. We consider uncertainty in the wind propagation time, which is the traveling time of wind from the LIDAR measurement point to the rotor. An algorithm based......The problem of Model predictive control (MPC) of wind turbines using uncertain LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) measurements is considered. A nonlinear dynamical model of the wind turbine is obtained. We linearize the obtained nonlinear model for different operating points, which are determined...... on wind speed estimation and measurements from the LIDAR is devised to find an estimate of the delay and compensate for it before it is used in the controller. Comparisons between the MPC with error compensation, the MPC without error compensation and an MPC with re-linearization at each sample point...

  5. Probabilistic maximum-value wind prediction for offshore environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Staid, Andrea; Pinson, Pierre; Guikema, Seth D.

    2015-01-01

    statistical models to predict the full distribution of the maximum-value wind speeds in a 3 h interval. We take a detailed look at the performance of linear models, generalized additive models and multivariate adaptive regression splines models using meteorological covariates such as gust speed, wind speed......, convective available potential energy, Charnock, mean sea-level pressure and temperature, as given by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts forecasts. The models are trained to predict the mean value of maximum wind speed, and the residuals from training the models are used to develop...... the full probabilistic distribution of maximum wind speed. Knowledge of the maximum wind speed for an offshore location within a given period can inform decision-making regarding turbine operations, planned maintenance operations and power grid scheduling in order to improve safety and reliability...

  6. Wind Plant Performance Prediction (WP3) Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Craig, Anna [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-01-26

    The methods for analysis of operational wind plant data are highly variable across the wind industry, leading to high uncertainties in the validation and bias-correction of preconstruction energy estimation methods. Lack of credibility in the preconstruction energy estimates leads to significant impacts on project financing and therefore the final levelized cost of energy for the plant. In this work, the variation in the evaluation of a wind plant's operational energy production as a result of variations in the processing methods applied to the operational data is examined. Preliminary results indicate that selection of the filters applied to the data and the filter parameters can have significant impacts in the final computed assessment metrics.

  7. Satellite Remote Sensing of Ocean Winds, Surface Waves and Surface Currents during the Hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, G.; Perrie, W. A.; Liu, G.; Zhang, L.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricanes over the ocean have been observed by spaceborne aperture radar (SAR) since the first SAR images were available in 1978. SAR has high spatial resolution (about 1 km), relatively large coverage and capability for observations during almost all-weather, day-and-night conditions. In this study, seven C-band RADARSAT-2 dual-polarized (VV and VH) ScanSAR wide images from the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) Hurricane Watch Program in 2017 are collected over five hurricanes: Harvey, Irma, Maria, Nate, and Ophelia. We retrieve the ocean winds by applying our C-band Cross-Polarization Coupled-Parameters Ocean (C-3PO) wind retrieval model [Zhang et al., 2017, IEEE TGRS] to the SAR images. Ocean waves are estimated by applying a relationship based on the fetch- and duration-limited nature of wave growth inside hurricanes [Hwang et al., 2016; 2017, J. Phys. Ocean.]. We estimate the ocean surface currents using the Doppler Shift extracted from VV-polarized SAR images [Kang et al., 2016, IEEE TGRS]. C-3PO model is based on theoretical analysis of ocean surface waves and SAR microwave backscatter. Based on the retrieved ocean winds, we estimate the hurricane center locations, maxima wind speeds, and radii of the five hurricanes by adopting the SHEW model (Symmetric Hurricane Estimates for Wind) by Zhang et al. [2017, IEEE TGRS]. Thus, we investigate possible relations between hurricane structures and intensities, and especially some possible effects of the asymmetrical characteristics on changes in the hurricane intensities, such as the eyewall replacement cycle. The three SAR images of Ophelia include the north coast of Ireland and east coast of Scotland allowing study of ocean surface currents respond to the hurricane. A system of methods capable of observing marine winds, surface waves, and surface currents from satellites is of value, even if these data are only available in near real-time or from SAR-related satellite images. Insight into high resolution ocean winds

  8. Using machine learning to predict wind turbine power output

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clifton, A; Kilcher, L; Lundquist, J K; Fleming, P

    2013-01-01

    Wind turbine power output is known to be a strong function of wind speed, but is also affected by turbulence and shear. In this work, new aerostructural simulations of a generic 1.5 MW turbine are used to rank atmospheric influences on power output. Most significant is the hub height wind speed, followed by hub height turbulence intensity and then wind speed shear across the rotor disk. These simulation data are used to train regression trees that predict the turbine response for any combination of wind speed, turbulence intensity, and wind shear that might be expected at a turbine site. For a randomly selected atmospheric condition, the accuracy of the regression tree power predictions is three times higher than that from the traditional power curve methodology. The regression tree method can also be applied to turbine test data and used to predict turbine performance at a new site. No new data are required in comparison to the data that are usually collected for a wind resource assessment. Implementing the method requires turbine manufacturers to create a turbine regression tree model from test site data. Such an approach could significantly reduce bias in power predictions that arise because of the different turbulence and shear at the new site, compared to the test site. (letter)

  9. Empirical models for predicting wind potential for wind energy applications in rural locations of Nigeria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Odo, F.C. [National Centre for Energy Research and Development, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria); Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria); Akubue, G.U.; Offiah, S.U.; Ugwuoke, P.E. [National Centre for Energy Research and Development, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria)

    2013-07-01

    In this paper, we use the correlation between the average wind speed and ambient temperature to develop models for predicting wind potentials for two Nigerian locations. Assuming that the troposphere is a typical heterogeneous mixture of ideal gases, we find that for the studied locations, wind speed clearly correlates with ambient temperature in a simple polynomial of 3rd degree. The coefficient of determination and root-mean-square error of the models are 0.81; 0.0024 and 0.56; 0.0041, respectively, for Enugu (6.40N; 7.50E) and Owerri (5.50N; 7.00E). These results suggest that the temperature-based model can be used, with acceptable accuracy, in predicting wind potentials needed for preliminary design assessment of wind energy conversion devices for the locations and others with similar meteorological conditions.

  10. A new ensemble model for short term wind power prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Razvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan

    2012-01-01

    As the objective of this study, a non-linear ensemble system is used to develop a new model for predicting wind speed in short-term time scale. Short-term wind power prediction becomes an extremely important field of research for the energy sector. Regardless of the recent advancements in the re-search...... of prediction models, it was observed that different models have different capabilities and also no single model is suitable under all situations. The idea behind EPS (ensemble prediction systems) is to take advantage of the unique features of each subsystem to detain diverse patterns that exist in the dataset...

  11. Optimal prediction intervals of wind power generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wan, Can; Wu, Zhao; Pinson, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    direct optimization of both the coverage probability and sharpness to ensure the quality. The proposed method does not involve the statistical inference or distribution assumption of forecasting errors needed in most existing methods. Case studies using real wind farm data from Australia have been...

  12. Selection of References in Wind Turbine Model Predictive Control Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Hovgaard, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    a model predictive controller for a wind turbine. One of the important aspects for a tracking control problem is how to setup the optimal reference tracking problem, as it might be relevant to track, e.g., the three concurrent references: optimal pitch angle, optimal rotational speed, and optimal power......Lowering the cost of energy is one of the major focus areas in the wind turbine industry. Recent research has indicated that wind turbine controllers based on model predictive control methods can be useful in obtaining this objective. A number of design considerations have to be made when designing....... The importance if the individual references differ depending in particular on the wind speed. In this paper we investigate the performance of a reference tracking model predictive controller with two different setups of the used optimal reference signals. The controllers are evaluated using an industrial high...

  13. Offshore Wind Energy: Wind and Sea Surface Temperature from Satellite Observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karagali, Ioanna

    as the entire atmosphere above. Under conditions of light winds and strong solar insolation, warming of the upper oceanic layer may occur. In this PhD study, remote sensing from satellites is used to obtain information for the near-surface ocean wind and the sea surface temperature over the North Sea......, demonstrate that wind information from SAR is more appropriate when small scale local features are of interest, not resolved by scatterometers. Hourly satellite observations of the sea surface temperature, from a thermal infra-red sensor, are used to identify and quantify the daily variability of the sea...

  14. A new class of actuator surface models for wind turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaolei; Sotiropoulos, Fotis

    2018-05-01

    Actuator line model has been widely employed in wind turbine simulations. However, the standard actuator line model does not include a model for the turbine nacelle which can significantly impact turbine wake characteristics as shown in the literature. Another disadvantage of the standard actuator line model is that more geometrical features of turbine blades cannot be resolved on a finer mesh. To alleviate these disadvantages of the standard model, we develop a new class of actuator surface models for turbine blades and nacelle to take into account more geometrical details of turbine blades and include the effect of turbine nacelle. In the actuator surface model for blade, the aerodynamic forces calculated using the blade element method are distributed from the surface formed by the foil chords at different radial locations. In the actuator surface model for nacelle, the forces are distributed from the actual nacelle surface with the normal force component computed in the same way as in the direct forcing immersed boundary method and the tangential force component computed using a friction coefficient and a reference velocity of the incoming flow. The actuator surface model for nacelle is evaluated by simulating the flow over periodically placed nacelles. Both the actuator surface simulation and the wall-resolved large-eddy simulation are carried out. The comparison shows that the actuator surface model is able to give acceptable results especially at far wake locations on a very coarse mesh. It is noted that although this model is employed for the turbine nacelle in this work, it is also applicable to other bluff bodies. The capability of the actuator surface model in predicting turbine wakes is assessed by simulating the flow over the MEXICO (Model experiments in Controlled Conditions) turbine and a hydrokinetic turbine.

  15. Statistical downscaling of historical monthly mean winds over a coastal region of complex terrain. I. Predicting wind speed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curry, Charles L. [Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC (Canada); School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC (Canada); Kamp, Derek van der [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC (Canada); Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC (Canada); Monahan, Adam H. [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC (Canada)

    2012-04-15

    Surface wind speed is a key climatic variable of interest in many applications, including assessments of storm-related infrastructure damage and feasibility studies of wind power generation. In this work and a companion paper (van der Kamp et al. 2011), the relationship between local surface wind and large-scale climate variables was studied using multiple regression analysis. The analysis was performed using monthly mean station data from British Columbia, Canada and large-scale climate variables (predictors) from the NCEP-2 reanalysis over the period 1979-2006. Two regression-based methodologies were compared. The first relates the annual cycle of station wind speed to that of the large-scale predictors at the closest grid box to the station. It is shown that the relatively high correlation coefficients obtained with this method are attributable to the dominant influence of region-wide seasonality, and thus contain minimal information about local wind behaviour at the stations. The second method uses interannually varying data for individual months, aggregated into seasons, and is demonstrated to contain intrinsically local information about the surface winds. The dependence of local wind speed upon large-scale predictors over a much larger region surrounding the station was also explored, resulting in 2D maps of spatial correlations. The cross-validated explained variance using the interannual method was highest in autumn and winter, ranging from 30 to 70% at about a dozen stations in the region. Reasons for the limited predictive skill of the regressions and directions for future progress are reviewed. (orig.)

  16. Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Giorgi, Maria Grazia; Ficarella, Antonio; Tarantino, Marco

    2011-01-01

    The integration of wind farms in power networks has become an important problem. This is because the electricity produced cannot be preserved because of the high cost of storage and electricity production must follow market demand. Short-long-range wind forecasting over different lengths/periods of time is becoming an important process for the management of wind farms. Time series modelling of wind speeds is based upon the valid assumption that all the causative factors are implicitly accounted for in the sequence of occurrence of the process itself. Hence time series modelling is equivalent to physical modelling. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, which perform a linear mapping between inputs and outputs, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), which perform a non-linear mapping, provide a robust approach to wind power prediction. In this work, these models are developed in order to forecast power production of a wind farm with three wind turbines, using real load data and comparing different time prediction periods. This comparative analysis takes in the first time, various forecasting methods, time horizons and a deep performance analysis focused upon the normalised mean error and the statistical distribution hereof in order to evaluate error distribution within a narrower curve and therefore forecasting methods whereby it is more improbable to make errors in prediction. (author)

  17. Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Giorgi, Maria Grazia; Ficarella, Antonio; Tarantino, Marco [Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell' Innovazione, Universita del Salento, Via per Monteroni, 73100 Lecce (Italy)

    2011-04-15

    The integration of wind farms in power networks has become an important problem. This is because the electricity produced cannot be preserved because of the high cost of storage and electricity production must follow market demand. Short-long-range wind forecasting over different lengths/periods of time is becoming an important process for the management of wind farms. Time series modelling of wind speeds is based upon the valid assumption that all the causative factors are implicitly accounted for in the sequence of occurrence of the process itself. Hence time series modelling is equivalent to physical modelling. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, which perform a linear mapping between inputs and outputs, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), which perform a non-linear mapping, provide a robust approach to wind power prediction. In this work, these models are developed in order to forecast power production of a wind farm with three wind turbines, using real load data and comparing different time prediction periods. This comparative analysis takes in the first time, various forecasting methods, time horizons and a deep performance analysis focused upon the normalised mean error and the statistical distribution hereof in order to evaluate error distribution within a narrower curve and therefore forecasting methods whereby it is more improbable to make errors in prediction. (author)

  18. Calculating the sensitivity of wind turbine loads to wind inputs using response surfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rinker, Jennifer M.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology to calculate wind turbine load sensitivities to turbulence parameters through the use of response surfaces. A response surface is a highdimensional polynomial surface that can be calibrated to any set of input/output data and then used to generate synthetic data at a low computational cost. Sobol sensitivity indices (SIs) can then be calculated with relative ease using the calibrated response surface. The proposed methodology is demonstrated by calculating the total sensitivity of the maximum blade root bending moment of the WindPACT 5 MW reference model to four turbulence input parameters: a reference mean wind speed, a reference turbulence intensity, the Kaimal length scale, and a novel parameter reflecting the nonstationarity present in the inflow turbulence. The input/output data used to calibrate the response surface were generated for a previous project. The fit of the calibrated response surface is evaluated in terms of error between the model and the training data and in terms of the convergence. The Sobol SIs are calculated using the calibrated response surface, and the convergence is examined. The Sobol SIs reveal that, of the four turbulence parameters examined in this paper, the variance caused by the Kaimal length scale and nonstationarity parameter are negligible. Thus, the findings in this paper represent the first systematic evidence that stochastic wind turbine load response statistics can be modeled purely by mean wind wind speed and turbulence intensity. (paper)

  19. Model Predictive Voltage Control of Wind Power Plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei

    2018-01-01

    the efficacy of the proposed WFVC, two case scenarios were designed: the wind farm is under normal operating conditions and the internal wind power fluctuation is considered; and besides internal power fluctuation, the impact of the external grid on the wind farm is considered.......This chapter proposes an autonomous wind farm voltage controller (WFVC) based on model predictive control (MPC). It also introduces the analytical expressions for the voltage sensitivity to tap positions of a transformer. The chapter then describes the discrete models for the wind turbine...... generators (WTGs) and static var compensators (SVCs)/static var generators (SVGs). Next, it describes the implementation of the on‐load tap changing (OLTC) in the MPC. Furthermore, the chapter examines the cost function as well as the constraints of the MPC‐based WFVC for both control modes. In order to test...

  20. Short-term prediction of local wind conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Landberg, L.

    2001-01-01

    This paper will describe a system which predicts the expected power output of a number of wind farms. The system is automatic and operates on-line. The paper will quantify the accuracy of the predictions and will also give examples of the performance for specific storm events. An actual...

  1. Robust Model Predictive Control of a Wind Turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Niemann, Hans Henrik

    2012-01-01

    In this work the problem of robust model predictive control (robust MPC) of a wind turbine in the full load region is considered. A minimax robust MPC approach is used to tackle the problem. Nonlinear dynamics of the wind turbine are derived by combining blade element momentum (BEM) theory...... of the uncertain system is employed and a norm-bounded uncertainty model is used to formulate a minimax model predictive control. The resulting optimization problem is simplified by semidefinite relaxation and the controller obtained is applied on a full complexity, high fidelity wind turbine model. Finally...... and first principle modeling of the turbine flexible structure. Thereafter the nonlinear model is linearized using Taylor series expansion around system operating points. Operating points are determined by effective wind speed and an extended Kalman filter (EKF) is employed to estimate this. In addition...

  2. Wind Characteristics of Coastal and Inland Surface Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subramanian, Chelakara; Lazarus, Steven; Jin, Tetsuya

    2015-11-01

    Lidar measurements of the winds in the surface layer (up to 80 m) inland and near the beach are studied to better characterize the velocity profile and the effect of roughness. Mean and root-mean-squared profiles of horizontal and vertical wind components are analyzed. The effects of variable time (18, 60 and 600 seconds) averaging on the above profiles are discussed. The validity of common surface layer wind profile models to estimate skin friction drag is assessed in light of these measurements. Other turbulence statistics such as auto- and cross- correlations in spatial and temporal domains are also presented. The help of FIT DMES field measurement crew is acknowledged.

  3. Simulation of the Impact of New Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on H*Wind Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Timothy; Atlas, Robert; Black, Peter; Chen, Shuyi; Hood, Robbie; Johnson, James; Jones, Linwood; Ruf, Chris; Uhlhorn, Eric

    2008-01-01

    The H*Wind analysis, a product of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, brings together wind measurements from a variety of observation platforms into an objective analysis of the distribution of surface wind speeds in a tropical cyclone. This product is designed to improve understanding of the extent and strength of the wind field, and to improve the assessment of hurricane intensity. See http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data sub/wind.html. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new passive microwave remote sensor for hurricane observations that is currently under development by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida and the University of Michigan. HIRAD is being designed to enhance the current real-time airborne ocean surface winds observation capabilities of NOAA and USAF Weather Squadron hurricane hunter aircraft using the operational airbome Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR). Unlike SFMR, which measures wind speed and rain rate along the ground track directly beneath the aircraft, HIRAD will provide images of the surface wind and rain field over a wide swath (approximately 3 x the aircraft altitude, or approximately 2 km from space). The instrument is described in a separate paper presented at this conference. The present paper describes a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in which measurements from the new instrument as well as those from existing instruments (air, surface, and space-based) are simulated from the output of a numerical model from the University of Miami, and those results are used to construct H*Wind analyses. Evaluations will be presented on the relative impact of HIRAD and other instruments on H*Wind analyses, including the use of HIRAD from 2 aircraft altitudes and from a space-based platform.

  4. Observational study of surface wind along a sloping surface over mountainous terrain during winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Young-Hee; Lee, Gyuwon; Joo, Sangwon; Ahn, Kwang-Deuk

    2018-03-01

    The 2018 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games will be held in Pyeongchang, Korea, during February and March. We examined the near surface winds and wind gusts along the sloping surface at two outdoor venues in Pyeongchang during February and March using surface wind data. The outdoor venues are located in a complex, mountainous terrain, and hence the near-surface winds form intricate patterns due to the interplay between large-scale and locally forced winds. During February and March, the dominant wind at the ridge level is westerly; however, a significant wind direction change is observed along the sloping surface at the venues. The winds on the sloping surface are also influenced by thermal forcing, showing increased upslope flow during daytime. When neutral air flows over the hill, the windward and leeward flows show a significantly different behavior. A higher correlation of the wind speed between upper- and lower-level stations is shown in the windward region compared with the leeward region. The strong synoptic wind, small width of the ridge, and steep leeward ridge slope angle provide favorable conditions for flow separation at the leeward foot of the ridge. The gust factor increases with decreasing surface elevation and is larger during daytime than nighttime. A significantly large gust factor is also observed in the leeward region.

  5. Artificial intelligence to predict short-term wind speed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinto, Tiago; Soares, Joao; Ramos, Sergio; Vale, Zita [Polytechnic of Porto (Portugal). GECAD - ISEP

    2012-07-01

    The use of renewable energy is increasing exponentially in many countries due to the introduction of new energy and environmental policies. Thus, the focus on energy and on the environment makes the efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system extremely important. Several European countries have been seeing a high penetration of wind power, representing, gradually, a significant penetration on electricity generation. The introduction of wind power in the network power system causes new challenges for the power system operator due to the variability and uncertainty in weather conditions and, consequently, in the wind power generation. As result, the scheduling dispatch has a significantly portion of uncertainty. In order to deal with the uncertainty in wind power and, with that, introduce improvements in the power system operator efficiency, the wind power forecasting may reveal as a useful tool. This paper proposes a data-mining-based methodology to forecast wind speed. This method is based on the use of data mining techniques applied to a real database of historical wind data. The paper includes a case study based on a real database regarding the last three years to predict wind speed at 5 minute intervals. (orig.)

  6. Research on wind field algorithm of wind lidar based on BP neural network and grey prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yong; Chen, Chun-Li; Luo, Xiong; Zhang, Yan; Yang, Ze-hou; Zhou, Jie; Shi, Xiao-ding; Wang, Lei

    2018-01-01

    This paper uses the BP neural network and grey algorithm to forecast and study radar wind field. In order to reduce the residual error in the wind field prediction which uses BP neural network and grey algorithm, calculating the minimum value of residual error function, adopting the residuals of the gray algorithm trained by BP neural network, using the trained network model to forecast the residual sequence, using the predicted residual error sequence to modify the forecast sequence of the grey algorithm. The test data show that using the grey algorithm modified by BP neural network can effectively reduce the residual value and improve the prediction precision.

  7. Hourly Wind Speed Interval Prediction in Arid Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaouch, M.; Ouarda, T.

    2013-12-01

    context, probabilistic forecasts might be more relevant than point forecasts for the planner to build scenarios In this paper, we are interested in estimating predictive intervals of the hourly wind speed measures in few cities in United Arab emirates (UAE). More precisely, given a wind speed time series, our target is to forecast the wind speed at any specific hour during the day and provide in addition an interval with the coverage probability 0flexible because it does not need a specification of the model to work with (such as normal distribution or a linear relation). Here, we use a covariable that is correlated to the wind speed. In practice, many possible choices of the covariate are available. In fact, in addition to its historical data, the wind speed is highly correlated to temperature, humidity and wind direction. In this paper a comparison, in terms of Mean Absolute Prediction Errors and Interquartile Range, between those choices will be provided to show which covariates are more suitable to forecast wind speed.

  8. Prediction and analysis of infra and low-frequency noise of upwind horizontal axis wind turbine using statistical wind speed model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Gwang-Se; Cheong, Cheolung, E-mail: ccheong@pusan.ac.kr [School of Mechanical Engineering, Pusan National University, Busan, 609-745, Rep. of Korea (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-12-15

    Despite increasing concern about low-frequency noise of modern large horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWTs), few studies have focused on its origin or its prediction methods. In this paper, infra- and low-frequency (the ILF) wind turbine noise are closely examined and an efficient method is developed for its prediction. Although most previous studies have assumed that the ILF noise consists primarily of blade passing frequency (BPF) noise components, these tonal noise components are seldom identified in the measured noise spectrum, except for the case of downwind wind turbines. In reality, since modern HAWTs are very large, during rotation, a single blade of the turbine experiences inflow with variation in wind speed in time as well as in space, breaking periodic perturbations of the BPF. Consequently, this transforms acoustic contributions at the BPF harmonics into broadband noise components. In this study, the ILF noise of wind turbines is predicted by combining Lowson’s acoustic analogy with the stochastic wind model, which is employed to reproduce realistic wind speed conditions. In order to predict the effects of these wind conditions on pressure variation on the blade surface, unsteadiness in the incident wind speed is incorporated into the XFOIL code by varying incident flow velocities on each blade section, which depend on the azimuthal locations of the rotating blade. The calculated surface pressure distribution is subsequently used to predict acoustic pressure at an observing location by using Lowson’s analogy. These predictions are compared with measured data, which ensures that the present method can reproduce the broadband characteristics of the measured low-frequency noise spectrum. Further investigations are carried out to characterize the IFL noise in terms of pressure loading on blade surface, narrow-band noise spectrum and noise maps around the turbine.

  9. Prediction and analysis of infra and low-frequency noise of upwind horizontal axis wind turbine using statistical wind speed model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gwang-Se Lee

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Despite increasing concern about low-frequency noise of modern large horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWTs, few studies have focused on its origin or its prediction methods. In this paper, infra- and low-frequency (the ILF wind turbine noise are closely examined and an efficient method is developed for its prediction. Although most previous studies have assumed that the ILF noise consists primarily of blade passing frequency (BPF noise components, these tonal noise components are seldom identified in the measured noise spectrum, except for the case of downwind wind turbines. In reality, since modern HAWTs are very large, during rotation, a single blade of the turbine experiences inflow with variation in wind speed in time as well as in space, breaking periodic perturbations of the BPF. Consequently, this transforms acoustic contributions at the BPF harmonics into broadband noise components. In this study, the ILF noise of wind turbines is predicted by combining Lowson’s acoustic analogy with the stochastic wind model, which is employed to reproduce realistic wind speed conditions. In order to predict the effects of these wind conditions on pressure variation on the blade surface, unsteadiness in the incident wind speed is incorporated into the XFOIL code by varying incident flow velocities on each blade section, which depend on the azimuthal locations of the rotating blade. The calculated surface pressure distribution is subsequently used to predict acoustic pressure at an observing location by using Lowson’s analogy. These predictions are compared with measured data, which ensures that the present method can reproduce the broadband characteristics of the measured low-frequency noise spectrum. Further investigations are carried out to characterize the IFL noise in terms of pressure loading on blade surface, narrow-band noise spectrum and noise maps around the turbine.

  10. Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joensen, A; Giebel, G; Landberg, L [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H; Nielsen, H A [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.

  11. Skill forecasting from different wind power ensemble prediction methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik A; Madsen, Henrik; Kariniotakis, George

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents an investigation on alternative approaches to the providing of uncertainty estimates associated to point predictions of wind generation. Focus is given to skill forecasts in the form of prediction risk indices, aiming at giving a comprehensive signal on the expected level of forecast uncertainty. Ensemble predictions of wind generation are used as input. A proposal for the definition of prediction risk indices is given. Such skill forecasts are based on the dispersion of ensemble members for a single prediction horizon, or over a set of successive look-ahead times. It is shown on the test case of a Danish offshore wind farm how prediction risk indices may be related to several levels of forecast uncertainty (and energy imbalances). Wind power ensemble predictions are derived from the transformation of ECMWF and NCEP ensembles of meteorological variables to power, as well as by a lagged average approach alternative. The ability of risk indices calculated from the various types of ensembles forecasts to resolve among situations with different levels of uncertainty is discussed

  12. Surface wind energy trends near Taiwan in winter since 1871

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The tropical surface wind speed in boreal winter reaches a maximum near Taiwan. This stable wind resource may be used for future clean energy development. How this surface wind energy source has changed in past 141 years is investigated using the 20th century reanalysis dataset and CMIP5 models. Our observational analysis shows that the surface wind speed experienced a weakening trend in the past 141 years (1871 - 2010. The average decreasing rate is around -1.4 m s-1 per century. The decrease is primarily attributed to the relative sea surface temperature (SST cooling in the subtropical North Pacific, which forces a large-scale low-level anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly in situ and is thus responsible for the southerly trend near Taiwan. The relative SST trend pattern is attributed mainly to the greenhouse gas effect associated with anthropogenic activities. The southerly trend near Taiwan is more pronounced in the boreal winter than in summer. Such seasonal difference is attributed to the reversed seasonal mean wind, which promotes more efficient positive feedback in the boreal winter. The CMIP5 historical run analysis reveals that climate models capture less SST warming and large-scale anti-cyclonic circulation in the subtropical North Pacific, but the simulated weakening trend of the surface wind speed near Taiwan is too small.

  13. Surface drag effects on simulated wind fields in high-resolution atmospheric forecast model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lim, Kyo Sun; Lim, Jong Myoung; Ji, Young Yong [Environmental Radioactivity Assessment Team,Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Shin, Hye Yum [NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton (United States); Hong, Jin Kyu [Yonsei University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-04-15

    It has been reported that the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model generally shows a substantial over prediction bias at low to moderate wind speeds and winds are too geostrophic (Cheng and Steenburgh 2005), which limits the application of WRF model in the area that requires the accurate surface wind estimation such as wind-energy application, air-quality studies, and radioactive-pollutants dispersion studies. The surface drag generated by the subgrid-scale orography is represented by introducing a sink term in the momentum equation in their studies. The purpose of our study is to evaluate the simulated meteorological fields in the high-resolution WRF framework, that includes the parameterization of subgrid-scale orography developed by Mass and Ovens (2010), and enhance the forecast skill of low-level wind fields, which plays an important role in transport and dispersion of air pollutants including radioactive pollutants. The positive bias in 10-m wind speed is significantly alleviated by implementing the subgrid-scale orography parameterization, while other meteorological fields including 10-m wind direction are not changed. Increased variance of subgrid- scale orography enhances the sink of momentum and further reduces the bias in 10-m wind speed.

  14. Calculating the sensitivity of wind turbine loads to wind inputs using response surfaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rinker, Jennifer M.

    2016-01-01

    at a low computational cost. Sobol sensitivity indices (SIs) can then be calculated with relative ease using the calibrated response surface. The proposed methodology is demonstrated by calculating the total sensitivity of the maximum blade root bending moment of the WindPACT 5 MW reference model to four......This paper presents a methodology to calculate wind turbine load sensitivities to turbulence parameters through the use of response surfaces. A response surface is a high-dimensional polynomial surface that can be calibrated to any set of input/output data and then used to generate synthetic data...... turbulence input parameters: a reference mean wind speed, a reference turbulence intensity, the Kaimal length scale, and a novel parameter reflecting the nonstationarity present in the inflow turbulence. The input/output data used to calibrate the response surface were generated for a previous project...

  15. Wind farm production prediction - The Zephyr model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Giebel, G. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H. [IMM (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, T.S. [IMM (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Joergensen, J.U. [Danish Meteorologisk Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Lauersen, L. [Danish Meteorologisk Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Toefting, J. [Elsam, Fredericia (DK); Christensen, H.S. [Eltra, Fredericia (Denmark); Bjerge, C. [SEAS, Haslev (Denmark)

    2002-06-01

    This report describes a project - funded by the Danish Ministry of Energy and the Environment - which developed a next generation prediction system called Zephyr. The Zephyr system is a merging between two state-of-the-art prediction systems: Prediktor of Risoe National Laboratory and WPPT of IMM at the Danish Technical University. The numerical weather predictions were generated by DMI's HIRLAM model. Due to technical difficulties programming the system, only the computational core and a very simple version of the originally very complex system were developed. The project partners were: Risoe, DMU, DMI, Elsam, Eltra, Elkraft System, SEAS and E2. (au)

  16. Predicting Ultimate Loads for Wind Turbine Design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madsen, P. H.; Pierce, K.; Buhl, M.

    1998-01-01

    This paper addresses the statistical uncertainty of loads prediction using structural dynamics simulation codes and the requirements for the number and duration of simulations for obtaining robust load estimates

  17. Increased Surface Wind Speeds Follow Diminishing Arctic Sea Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mioduszewski, J.; Vavrus, S. J.; Wang, M.; Holland, M. M.; Landrum, L.

    2017-12-01

    Projections of Arctic sea ice through the end of the 21st century indicate the likelihood of a strong reduction in ice area and thickness in all seasons, leading to a substantial thermodynamic influence on the overlying atmosphere. This is likely to have an effect on winds over the Arctic Basin, due to changes in atmospheric stability and/or baroclinicity. Prior research on future Arctic wind changes is limited and has focused mainly on the practical impacts on wave heights in certain seasons. Here we attempt to identify patterns and likely mechanisms responsible for surface wind changes in all seasons across the Arctic, particularly those associated with sea ice loss in the marginal ice zone. Sea level pressure, near-surface (10 m) and upper-air (850 hPa) wind speeds, and lower-level dynamic and thermodynamic variables from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project (CESM-LE) were analyzed for the periods 1971-2000 and 2071-2100 to facilitate comparison between a present-day and future climate. Mean near-surface wind speeds over the Arctic Ocean are projected to increase by late century in all seasons but especially during autumn and winter, when they strengthen by up to 50% locally. The most extreme wind speeds in the 90th percentile change even more, increasing in frequency by over 100%. The strengthened winds are closely linked to decreasing lower-tropospheric stability resulting from the loss of sea ice cover and consequent surface warming (locally over 20 ºC warmer in autumn and winter). A muted pattern of these future changes is simulated in CESM-LE historical runs from 1920-2005. The enhanced winds near the surface are mostly collocated with weaker winds above the boundary layer during autumn and winter, implying more vigorous vertical mixing and a drawdown of high-momentum air.The implications of stronger future winds include increased coastal hazards and the potential for a positive feedback with sea ice by generating higher winds and

  18. Vertical Wind Tunnel for Prediction of Rocket Flight Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hoani Bryson

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available A customized vertical wind tunnel has been built by the University of Canterbury Rocketry group (UC Rocketry. This wind tunnel has been critical for the success of UC Rocketry as it allows the optimization of avionics and control systems before flight. This paper outlines the construction of the wind tunnel and includes an analysis of flow quality including swirl. A minimal modelling methodology for roll dynamics is developed that can extrapolate wind tunnel behavior at low wind speeds to much higher velocities encountered during flight. The models were shown to capture the roll flight dynamics in two rocket launches with mean roll angle errors varying from 0.26° to 1.5° across the flight data. The identified model parameters showed consistent and predictable variations over both wind tunnel tests and flight, including canard–fin interaction behavior. These results demonstrate that the vertical wind tunnel is an important tool for the modelling and control of sounding rockets.

  19. Ocean Surface Wind Speed of Hurricane Helene Observed by SAR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Qing; Cheng, Yongcun; Li, Xiaofeng

    2011-01-01

    Prediction System (NOGAPS) model, C-band geophysical model functions (GMFs) which describe the normalized radar cross section (NRCS) dependence on the wind speed and the geometry of radar observations (i.e., incidence angle and azimuth angle with respect to wind direction) such as CMOD5 and newly developed......The hurricanes can be detected by many remote sensors, but synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can yield high-resolution (sub-kilometer) and low-level wind information that cannot be seen below the cloud by other sensors. In this paper, an assessment of SAR capability of monitoring high...

  20. Aerodynamic performance prediction of Darrieus-type wind turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion NILĂ

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The prediction of Darrieus wind turbine aerodynamic performances provides the necessarydesign and operational data base related to the wind potential. In this sense it provides the type ofturbine suitable to the area where it is to be installed. Two calculation methods are analyzed for arotor with straight blades. The first one is a global method that allows an assessment of the turbinenominal power by a brief calculation. This method leads to an overestimation of performances. Thesecond is the calculation method of the gust factor and momentum which deals with the pale as beingcomposed of different elements that don’t influence each other. This method, developed based on thetheory of the turbine blades, leads to values close to the statistical data obtained experimentally. Thevalues obtained by the calculation method of gust factor - momentum led to the concept of a Darrieusturbine, which will be tested for different wind values in the INCAS subsonic wind tunnel.

  1. Model predictive control of wind energy conversion systems

    CERN Document Server

    Yaramasu, Venkata Narasimha R

    2017-01-01

    The authors provide a comprehensive analysis on the model predictive control of power converters employed in a wide variety of variable-speed wind energy conversion systems (WECS). The contents of this book includes an overview of wind energy system configurations, power converters for variable-speed WECS, digital control techniques, MPC, modeling of power converters and wind generators for MPC design. Other topics include the mapping of continuous-time models to discrete-time models by various exact, approximate, and quasi-exact discretization methods, modeling and control of wind turbine grid-side two-level and multilevel voltage source converters. The authors also focus on the MPC of several power converter configurations for full variable-speed permanent magnet synchronous generator based WECS, squirrel-cage induction generator based WECS, and semi-variable-speed doubly fed induction generator based WECS.

  2. Martian Dune Ripples as Indicators of Recent Surface Wind Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, M.; Zimbelman, J. R.

    2015-12-01

    Sand dunes have been shown to preserve the most recent wind patterns in their ripple formations. This investigation continues the manual documentation of ripples on Martian dunes in order to assess surface wind flow. Study sites investigated must have clear HiRISE frames and be able to represent diverse locations across the surface, decided primarily by their spread of latitude and longitude values. Additionally, frames with stereo pairs are preferred because of their ability to create digital terrain models. This will assist in efforts to relate dune slopes and obstacles to ripple patterns. The search and analysis period resulted in 40 study sites with mapped ripples. Lines were drawn perpendicular to ripple crests across three adjacent ripples in order to document both ripple wavelength from line length and inferred wind direction from azimuth. It is not possible to infer a unique wind direction from ripple orientation alone and therefore these inferred directions have a 180 degree ambiguity. Initial results from all study sites support previous observations that the Martian surface has many dune types in areas with adequate sand supply. The complexity of ripple patterns varies greatly across sites as well as within individual sites. Some areas of uniform directionality for hundreds of kilometers suggest a unimodal wind regime while overlapping patterns suggest multiple dominant winds or seasonally varying winds. In most areas, form flow related to dune shape seems to have a large effect on orientation and must be considered along with the dune type. As long as the few steep slip faces on these small dunes are avoided, form flow can be considered the dominant cause of deviation from the regional wind direction. Regional results, wind roses, and comparisons to previous work will be presented for individual sites.

  3. Simulation of an Underwater Acoustic Communication Channel Characterized by Wind-Generated Surface Waves and Bubbles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dol, H.S.; Colin, M.E.G.D.; Ainslie, M.A.; Walree, P.A. van; Janmaat, J.

    2012-01-01

    Sea surface scattering by wind-generated waves and bubbles is regarded to be the main non-platform related cause of the time variability of shallow acoustic communication channels. Simulations for predicting the quality of acoustic communication links in such channels thus require adequate modeling

  4. The Character of the Solar Wind, Surface Interactions, and Water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, William M.

    2011-01-01

    We discuss the key characteristics of the proton-rich solar wind and describe how it may interact with the lunar surface. We suggest that solar wind can be both a source and loss of water/OH related volatiles, and review models showing both possibilities. Energy from the Sun in the form of radiation and solar wind plasma are in constant interaction with the lunar surface. As such, there is a solar-lunar energy connection, where solar energy and matter are continually bombarding the lunar surface, acting at the largest scale to erode the surface at 0.2 Angstroms per year via ion sputtering [1]. Figure 1 illustrates this dynamically Sun-Moon system.

  5. Surface Currents and Winds at the Delaware Bay Mouth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muscarella, P A; Barton, N P; Lipphardt, B L; Veron, D E; Wong, K C; Kirwan, A D

    2011-04-06

    Knowledge of the circulation of estuaries and adjacent shelf waters has relied on hydrographic measurements, moorings, and local wind observations usually removed from the region of interest. Although these observations are certainly sufficient to identify major characteristics, they lack both spatial resolution and temporal coverage. High resolution synoptic observations are required to identify important coastal processes at smaller scales. Long observation periods are needed to properly sample low-frequency processes that may also be important. The introduction of high-frequency (HF) radar measurements and regional wind models for coastal studies is changing this situation. Here we analyze synoptic, high-resolution surface winds and currents in the Delaware Bay mouth over an eight-month period (October 2007 through May 2008). The surface currents were measured by two high-frequency radars while the surface winds were extracted from a data-assimilating regional wind model. To illustrate the utility of these monitoring tools we focus on two 45-day periods which previously were shown to present contrasting pictures of the circulation. One, the low-outflow period is from 1 October through 14 November 2007; the other is the high-outflow period from 3 March through 16 April 2008. The large-scale characteristics noted by previous workers are clearly corroborated. Specifically the M2 tide dominates the surface currents, and the Delaware Bay outflow plume is clearly evident in the low frequency currents. Several new aspects of the surface circulation were also identified. These include a map of the spatial variability of the M2 tide (validating an earlier model study), persistent low-frequency cross-mouth flow, and a rapid response of the surface currents to a changing wind field. However, strong wind episodes did not persist long enough to set up a sustained Ekman response.

  6. Indian Ocean surface winds from NCMRWF analysis as compared to ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    The quality of the surface wind analysis at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Fore- casts (NCMRWF), New .... mization of a generalized cost function using the. Spectral ... power from a given location on the sea surface at multiple ...

  7. Assessment of Wind Turbine Structural Integrity using Response Surface Methodology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Svenningsen, Lasse; Moser, Wolfgang

    2016-01-01

    Highlights •A new approach to assessment of site specific wind turbine loads is proposed. •The approach can be applied in both fatigue and ultimate limit state. •Two different response surface methodologies have been investigated. •The model uncertainty introduced by the response surfaces...

  8. WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — WSA-Enlil is a large-scale, physics-based prediction model of the heliosphere, used by the Space Weather Forecast Office to provide 1-4 day advance warning of solar...

  9. Understanding the Role of Wind in Reducing the Surface Mass Balance Estimates over East Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, I.; Scambos, T. A.; Koenig, L.; Creyts, T. T.; Bell, R. E.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Lenaerts, J.; Paden, J. D.

    2014-12-01

    Accurate quantification of surface snow-accumulation over Antarctica is important for mass balance estimates and climate studies based on ice core records. An improved estimate of surface mass balance must include the significant role near-surface wind plays in the sublimation and redistribution of snow across Antarctica. We have developed an empirical model based on airborne radar and lidar observations, and modeled surface mass balance and wind fields to produce a continent-wide prediction of wind-scour zones over Antarctica. These zones have zero to negative surface mass balance, are located over locally steep ice sheet areas (>0.002) and controlled by bedrock topography. The near-surface winds accelerate over these zones, eroding and sublimating the surface snow. This scouring results in numerous localized regions (≤ 200 km2) with reduced surface accumulation. Each year, tens of gigatons of snow on the Antarctic ice sheet are ablated by persistent near-surface katabatic winds over these wind-scour zones. Large uncertainties remain in the surface mass balance estimates over East Antarctica as climate models do not adequately represent the small-scale physical processes that lead to mass loss through sublimation or redistribution over the wind-scour zones. In this study, we integrate Operation IceBridge's snow radar over the Recovery Ice Stream with a series of ice core dielectric and depth-density profiles for improved surface mass balance estimates that reflect the mass loss over the wind-scour zones. Accurate surface mass balance estimates from snow radars require spatially variable depth-density profiles. Using an ensemble of firn cores, MODIS-derived surface snow grain size, modeled accumulation rates and surface temperatures from RACMO2, we assemble spatially variable depth-density profiles and use our mapping of snow density variations to estimate layer mass and net accumulation rates from snow radar layer data. Our study improves the quantification of

  10. Forecasting Electricity Spot Prices Accounting for Wind Power Predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2013-01-01

    A two-step methodology for forecasting of electricity spot prices is introduced, with focus on the impact of predicted system load and wind power generation. The nonlinear and nonstationary influence of these explanatory variables is accommodated in a first step based on a nonparametric and time...

  11. Prediction of wind energy distribution in complex terrain using CFD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Chang; Li, Chenqi; Yang, Jianchuan

    2013-01-01

    Based on linear models, WAsP software predicts wind energy distribution, with a good accuracy for flat terrain, but with a large error under complicated topography. In this paper, numerical simulations are carried out using the FLUENT software on a mesh generated by the GAMBIT and ARGIS software ...

  12. Verification of some numerical models for operationally predicting mesoscale winds aloft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cornett, J.S.; Randerson, D.

    1977-01-01

    Four numerical models are described for predicting mesoscale winds aloft for a 6 h period. These models are all tested statistically against persistence as the control forecast and against predictions made by operational forecasters. Mesoscale winds aloft data were used to initialize the models and to verify the predictions on an hourly basis. The model yielding the smallest root-mean-square vector errors (RMSVE's) was the one based on the most physics which included advection, ageostrophic acceleration, vertical mixing and friction. Horizontal advection was found to be the most important term in reducing the RMSVE's followed by ageostrophic acceleration, vertical advection, surface friction and vertical mixing. From a comparison of the mean absolute errors based on up to 72 independent wind-profile predictions made by operational forecasters, by the most complete model, and by persistence, we conclude that the model is the best wind predictor in the free air. In the boundary layer, the results tend to favor the forecaster for direction predictions. The speed predictions showed no overall superiority in any of these three models

  13. Extreme wave and wind response predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher; Olsen, Anders S.; Mansour, Alaa E.

    2011-01-01

    codes and the short duration of the time domain simulations needed (typically 60–300s to cover the hydro- and aerodynamic memory effects in the response) the calculation of the mean out-crossing rates of a given response is fast. Thus non-linear effects can be included. Furthermore, the FORM analysis...... also identifies the most probable wave episodes leading to given responses.Because of the linearization of the failure surface in the FORM procedure the results are only asymptotically exact and thus MCS often also needs to be performed. In the present paper a scaling property inherent in the FORM...

  14. Using meteorological forecasts in on-line predictions of wind power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Torben Skov; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Madsen, Henrik

    1999-01-01

    This report describes a model investigation into wind power prediction model as well as a tool for predicting the power production from wind turbines in an area - the Wind Power Prediction Tool (WPPT). The predictions are based on on-line measurements of power production for a selected set...

  15. A history of wind erosion prediction models in the United States Department of Agriculture: The Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Development of the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) was officially inaugurated in 1985 by United States Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS) scientists in response to customer requests, particularly those coming from the USDA Soil Conservation Service (SCS), for im...

  16. Predicting the Extreme Loads on a Wind Turbine Considering Uncertainty in Airfoil Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abdallah, Imad; Natarajan, Anand; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    The sources contributing to uncertainty in a wind turbine blade static airfoil data include wind tunnel testing, CFD calculations, 3D rotational corrections based on CFD or emprircal models, surface roughness corrections, Reynolds number corrections, expansion to the full 360-degree angle of attack...... range, validation by full scale measurements, and geometric distortions of the blade during manufacturing and under loading. In this paper a stochastic model of the static airfoil data is proposed to supplement the prediction of extreme loads effects for large wind turbines. It is shown...... that the uncertainty in airfoil data can have e significant impact on the prediction of extreme loads effects depending on the component, and the correlation along the span of the blade....

  17. Model Predictive Control for Load Frequency Control with Wind Turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Reliable load frequency (LFC control is crucial to the operation and design of modern electric power systems. Considering the LFC problem of a four-area interconnected power system with wind turbines, this paper presents a distributed model predictive control (DMPC based on coordination scheme. The proposed algorithm solves a series of local optimization problems to minimize a performance objective for each control area. The scheme incorporates the two critical nonlinear constraints, for example, the generation rate constraint (GRC and the valve limit, into convex optimization problems. Furthermore, the algorithm reduces the impact on the randomness and intermittence of wind turbine effectively. A performance comparison between the proposed controller with and that without the participation of the wind turbines is carried out. Good performance is obtained in the presence of power system nonlinearities due to the governors and turbines constraints and load change disturbances.

  18. Low-Frequency Rotation of Surface Winds over Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard B. Richardson

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Hourly surface observations from the Canadian Weather Energy and Engineering Dataset were analyzed with respect to long-term wind direction drift or rotation. Most of the Canadian landmass, including the High Arctic, exhibits a spatially consistent and remarkably steady anticyclonic rotation of wind direction. The period of anticyclonic rotation recorded at 144 out of 149 Canadian meteostations directly correlated with latitude and ranged from 7 days at Medicine Hat (50°N, 110°W to 25 days at Resolute (75°N, 95°W. Only five locations in the vicinity of the Rocky Mountains and Pacific Coast were found to obey a “negative” (i.e., cyclonic rotation. The observed anticyclonic rotation appears to be a deterministic, virtually ubiquitous, and highly persistent feature of continental surface wind. These findings are directly applicable to probabilistic assessments of airborne pollutants.

  19. The statistical prediction of offshore winds from land-based data for wind-energy applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walmsley, J.L.; Barthelmie, R.J.; Burrows, W.R.

    2001-01-01

    Land-based meteorological measurements at two locations on the Danish coast are used to predict offshore wind speeds. Offshore wind-speed data are used only for developing the statistical prediction algorithms and for verification. As a first step, the two datasets were separated into nine...... percentile-based bins, with a minimum of 30 data records in each bin. Next, the records were randomly selected with approximately 70% of the data in each bin being used as a training set for development of the prediction algorithms, and the remaining 30% being reserved as a test set for evaluation purposes....... The binning procedure ensured that both training and test sets fairly represented the overall data distribution. To base the conclusions on firmer ground, five permutations of these training and test sets were created. Thus, all calculations were based on five cases, each one representing a different random...

  20. Surface Wind Gust Statistics at the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, A.H.

    2001-01-01

    The Atmospheric Technologies Group (ATG) of the Savannah River Technology Center (SRTC) collects meteorological data for many purposes at the Savannah River Site (SRS) including weather forecasting. This study focuses on wind gusts and also, to a lesser degree, turbulence intensities that occur in fair weather conditions near the surface over time periods from 1 hour to one week (168 hours)

  1. Surface Winds and Dust Biases in Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evan, A. T.

    2018-01-01

    An analysis of North African dust from models participating in the Fifth Climate Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggested that, when forced by observed sea surface temperatures, these models were unable to reproduce any aspects of the observed year-to-year variability in dust from North Africa. Consequently, there would be little reason to have confidence in the models' projections of changes in dust over the 21st century. However, no subsequent study has elucidated the root causes of the disagreement between CMIP5 and observed dust. Here I develop an idealized model of dust emission and then use this model to show that, over North Africa, such biases in CMIP5 models are due to errors in the surface wind fields and not due to the representation of dust emission processes. These results also suggest that because the surface wind field over North Africa is highly spatially autocorrelated, intermodel differences in the spatial structure of dust emission have little effect on the relative change in year-to-year dust emission over the continent. I use these results to show that similar biases in North African dust from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) version 2 surface wind field biases but that these wind biases were not present in the first version of MERRA.

  2. Auto-correlation analysis of ocean surface wind vectors

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    M. Senthilkumar (Newgen Imaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    time series data of surface winds measured in situ by a deep water buoy in the Indian Ocean has been carried out. ... A case study using the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and ... parameter is essential when the values of the parameter ...

  3. Phase spectral composition of wind generated ocean surface waves

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Varkey, M.J.

    A study of the composition of the phase spectra of wind generated ocean surface waves is carried out using wave records collected employing a ship borne wave recorder. It is found that the raw phase spectral estimates could be fitted by the Uniform...

  4. "Rapid Revisit" Measurements of Sea Surface Winds Using CYGNSS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, J.; Johnson, J. T.

    2017-12-01

    The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) is a space-borne GNSS-R (GNSS-Reflectometry) mission that launched December 15, 2016 for ocean surface wind speed measurements. CYGNSS includes 8 small satellites in the same LEO orbit, so that the mission provides wind speed products having unprecedented coverage both in time and space to study multi-temporal behaviors of oceanic winds. The nature of CYGNSS coverage results in some locations on Earth experiencing multiple wind speed measurements within a short period of time (a "clump" of observations in time resulting in a "rapid revisit" series of measurements). Such observations could seemingly provide indications of regions experiencing rapid changes in wind speeds, and therefore be of scientific utility. Temporally "clumped" properties of CYGNSS measurements are investigated using early CYGNSS L1/L2 measurements, and the results show that clump durations and spacing vary with latitude. For example, the duration of a clump can extend as long as a few hours at higher latitudes, with gaps between clumps ranging from 6 to as high as 12 hours depending on latitude. Examples are provided to indicate the potential of changes within a clump to produce a "rapid revisit" product for detecting convective activity. Also, we investigate detector design for identifying convective activities. Results from analyses using recent CYGNSS L2 winds will be provided in the presentation.

  5. The winds regime of surface in the Colombian coffee area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orlando Guzman Martinez; Lucia Gomez Gomez

    1994-01-01

    The characteristics of the address and gust of wind of the surface winds have been studied in 15 stations of the Colombian coffee area. It was found that the relief plays an important paper in the wind circulation so that during the day (7 a.m. - 7 p.m.) these they blow of the low sector toward the mountain and at night (7 p.m. - 7 a.m.) this situation is invested, that which is consistent with the characteristic pattern of circulation valley-mountain of the mountainous regions. For this fact, in most of the analyzed places a single day and night dominant address that it takes the orientation in that it is the respective hydrographic basin. It was not observed that the Alisios winds of the northeast and southeast modify the address settled down by the local circulation (valley-mountain) on the other hand a remarkable increase of the gust of wind was appreciated in July and August in the Florida and Ospina, stations located to the south of the country, as direct consequence of the Alisios of the southeast. The daily gust of wind in most of the studied places is low and it doesn't exceed of the 10 km/h, reason why it can consider that the Colombian coffee area is free of important damages for the action of the wind. Nevertheless, in some stations as Alban, Maracay and Paraguaicito the daily maximum gust of wind can surpass the 30 km/h and in occasions to cause damage mechanic to cultivations of high behavior and not well anchored facilities

  6. Aeolian sediment transport on a beach: Surface moisture, wind fetch, and mean transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, B. O.; Davidson-Arnott, R. G. D.; Hesp, P. A.; Namikas, S. L.; Ollerhead, J.; Walker, I. J.

    2009-04-01

    Temporal and spatial changes in wind speed, wind direction, and moisture content are ubiquitous across sandy coastal beaches. Often these factors interact in unknown ways to create complexity that confounds our ability to model sediment transport at any point across the beach as well as our capacity to predict sediment delivery into the adjacent foredunes. This study was designed to measure wind flow and sediment transport over a beach and foredune at Greenwich Dunes, Prince Edward Island National Park, with the express purpose of addressing these complex interactions. Detailed measurements are reported for one stormy day, October 11, 2004, during which meteorological conditions were highly variable. Wind speed ranged from 4 ms - 1 to over 20 ms - 1 , wind direction was highly oblique varying between 60° and 85° from shore perpendicular, and moisture content of the sand surface ranged from a minimum of about 3% (by mass) to complete saturation depending on precipitation, tidal excursion, and storm surge that progressively inundated the beach. The data indicate that short-term variations (i.e., minutes to hours) in sediment transport across this beach arise predominantly because of short-term changes in wind speed, as is expected, but also because of variations in wind direction, precipitation intensity, and tide level. Even slight increases in wind speed are capable of driving more intense saltation events, but this relationship is mediated by other factors on this characteristically narrow beach. As the angle of wind approach becomes more oblique, the fetch distance increases and allows greater opportunity for the saltation system to evolve toward an equilibrium transport state before reaching the foredunes. Whether the theoretically-predicted maximum rate of transport is ever achieved depends on the character of the sand surface (e.g., grain size, slope, roughness, vegetation, moisture content) and on various attributes of the wind field (e.g., average wind

  7. Wind Resource Assessment in Complex Terrain with a High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, Karin; Serafin, Stefano; Grubišić, Vanda; Dorninger, Manfred; Zauner, Rudolf; Fink, Martin

    2014-05-01

    A crucial step in planning new wind farms is the estimation of the amount of wind energy that can be harvested in possible target sites. Wind resource assessment traditionally entails deployment of masts equipped for wind speed measurements at several heights for a reasonably long period of time. Simplified linear models of atmospheric flow are then used for a spatial extrapolation of point measurements to a wide area. While linear models have been successfully applied in the wind resource assessment in plains and offshore, their reliability in complex terrain is generally poor. This represents a major limitation to wind resource assessment in Austria, where high-altitude locations are being considered for new plant sites, given the higher frequency of sustained winds at such sites. The limitations of linear models stem from two key assumptions in their formulation, the neutral stratification and attached boundary-layer flow, both of which often break down in complex terrain. Consequently, an accurate modeling of near-surface flow over mountains requires the adoption of a NWP model with high horizontal and vertical resolution. This study explores the wind potential of a site in Styria in the North-Eastern Alps. The WRF model is used for simulations with a maximum horizontal resolution of 800 m. Three nested computational domains are defined, with the innermost one encompassing a stretch of the relatively broad Enns Valley, flanked by the main crest of the Alps in the south and the Nördliche Kalkalpen of similar height in the north. In addition to the simulation results, we use data from fourteen 10-m wind measurement sites (of which 7 are located within valleys and 5 near mountain tops) and from 2 masts with anemometers at several heights (at hillside locations) in an area of 1600 km2 around the target site. The potential for wind energy production is assessed using the mean wind speed and turbulence intensity at hub height. The capacity factor is also evaluated

  8. Blended 6-Hourly Sea Surface Wind Vectors and Wind Stress on a Global 0.25 Degree Grid (1987-2011)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Blended Global Sea Surface Winds products contain ocean surface wind vectors and wind stress on a global 0.25 degree grid, in multiple time resolutions of...

  9. CYGNSS Surface Wind Validation and Characteristics in the Maritime Continent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asharaf, S.; Waliser, D. E.; Zhang, C.; Wandala, A.

    2017-12-01

    Surface wind over tropical oceans plays a crucial role in many local/regional weather and climate processes and helps to shape the global climate system. However, there is a lack of consistent high quality observations for surface winds. The newly launched NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission provides near surface wind speed over the tropical ocean with sampling that accounts for the diurnal cycle. In the early phase of the mission, validation is a critical task, and over-ocean validation is typically challenging due to a lack of robust validation resources that a cover a variety of environmental conditions. In addition, it can also be challenging to obtain in-situ observation resources and also to extract co-located CYGNSS records for some of the more scientifically interesting regions, such as the Maritime Continent (MC). The MC is regarded as a key tropical driver for the mean global circulation as well as important large-scale circulation variability such as the Madian-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The focus of this project and analysis is to take advantage of local in-situ resources from the MC regions (e.g. volunteer shipping, marine buoys, and the Year of Maritime Continent (YMC) campaign) to quantitatively characterize and validate the CYGNSS derived winds in the MC region and in turn work to unravel the complex multi-scale interactions between the MJO and MC. This presentation will show preliminary results of a comparison between the CYGNSS and the in-situ surface wind measurements focusing on the MC region. Details about the validation methods, uncertainties, and planned work will be discussed in this presentation.

  10. Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft- and Satellite-Based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on H*Wind Analyses and Numerical Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Timothy; Atlas, Robert; Black, Peter; Chen, Shuyi; Hood, Robbie; Johnson, James; Jones, Linwood; Ruf, Chris; Uhlhorn, Eric; Krishnamurti, T. N.; hide

    2009-01-01

    The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor for hurricane observations that is currently under development by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida and the University of Michigan. HIRAD is being designed to enhance the realtime airborne ocean surface winds observation capabilities of NOAA and USAF Weather Squadron hurricane hunter aircraft using the operational airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR). Unlike SFMR, which measures wind speed and rain rate along the ground track directly beneath the aircraft, HIRAD will provide images of the surface wind and rain field over a wide swath ( 3 x the aircraft altitude). The present paper describes a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in which measurements from the new instrument as well as those from existing instruments (air, surface, and space-based) are simulated from the output of a detailed numerical model, and those results are used to construct H*Wind analyses. The H*Wind analysis, a product of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, brings together wind measurements from a variety of observation platforms into an objective analysis of the distribution of wind speeds in a tropical cyclone. This product is designed to improve understanding of the extent and strength of the wind field, and to improve the assessment of hurricane intensity. See http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/wind.html. Evaluations will be presented on the impact of the HIRAD instrument on H*Wind analyses, both in terms of adding it to the full suite of current measurements, as well as using it to replace instrument(s) that may not be functioning at the future time the HIRAD instrument is implemented. Also shown will be preliminary results of numerical weather prediction OSSEs in which the impact of the addition of HIRAD observations to the initial state

  11. CYGNSS Surface Wind Observations and Surface Flux Estimates within Low-Latitude Extratropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo, J.; Posselt, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS), launched in December 2016, aims to improve estimates of surface wind speeds over the tropical oceans. While CYGNSS's core mission is to provide better estimates of surface winds within the core of tropical cyclones, previous research has shown that the constellation, with its orbital inclination of 35°, also has the ability to observe numerous extratropical cyclones that form in the lower latitudes. Along with its high spatial and temporal resolution, CYGNSS can provide new insights into how extratropical cyclones develop and evolve, especially in the presence of thick clouds and precipitation. We will demonstrate this by presenting case studies of multiple extratropical cyclones observed by CYGNSS early on in its mission in both Northern and Southern Hemispheres. By using the improved estimates of surface wind speeds from CYGNSS, we can obtain better estimates of surface latent and sensible heat fluxes within and around extratropical cyclones. Surface heat fluxes, driven by surface winds and strong vertical gradients of water vapor and temperature, play a key role in marine cyclogenesis as they increase instability within the boundary layer and may contribute to extreme marine cyclogenesis. In the past, it has been difficult to estimate surface heat fluxes from space borne instruments, as these fluxes cannot be observed directly from space, and deficiencies in spatial coverage and attenuation from clouds and precipitation lead to inaccurate estimates of surface flux components, such as surface wind speeds. While CYGNSS only contributes estimates of surface wind speeds, we can combine this data with other reanalysis and satellite data to provide improved estimates of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes within and around extratropical cyclones and throughout the entire CYGNSS mission.

  12. Comparison of the ocean surface vector winds over the Nordic Seas and their application for ocean modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Bourassa, Mark

    2017-04-01

    Ocean processes in the Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic are strongly controlled by air-sea heat and momentum fluxes. The predominantly cyclonic, large-scale atmospheric circulation brings the deep ocean layer up to the surface preconditioning the convective sites in the Nordic Seas for deep convection. In winter, intensive cooling and possibly salt flux from newly formed sea ice erodes the near-surface stratification and the mixed layer merges with the deeper domed layer, exposing the very weakly stratified deep water mass to direct interaction with the atmosphere. Surface wind is one of the atmospheric parameters required for estimating momentum and turbulent heat fluxes to the sea ice and ocean surface. In the ocean models forced by atmospheric analysis, errors in surface wind fields result in errors in air-sea heat and momentum fluxes, water mass formation, ocean circulation, as well as volume and heat transport in the straits. The goal of the study is to assess discrepancies across the wind vector fields from reanalysis data sets and scatterometer-derived gridded products over the Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic and to demonstrate possible implications of these differences for ocean modeling. The analyzed data sets include the reanalysis data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis 2 (NCEPR2), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR) and satellite wind products Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) wind product version 1.1 and recently released version 2.0, and Remote Sensing Systems QuikSCAT data. Large-scale and mesoscale characteristics of winds are compared at interannual, seasonal, and synoptic timescales. Numerical sensitivity experiments are conducted with a coupled ice-ocean model forced by different wind fields. The sensitivity experiments demonstrate differences in the net surface heat fluxes during storm events. Next, it is hypothesized that discrepancies in the wind vorticity

  13. Model predictive control of a wind turbine modelled in Simpack

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jassmann, U; Matzke, D; Reiter, M; Abel, D; Berroth, J; Schelenz, R; Jacobs, G

    2014-01-01

    Wind turbines (WT) are steadily growing in size to increase their power production, which also causes increasing loads acting on the turbine's components. At the same time large structures, such as the blades and the tower get more flexible. To minimize this impact, the classical control loops for keeping the power production in an optimum state are more and more extended by load alleviation strategies. These additional control loops can be unified by a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) controller to achieve better balancing of tuning parameters. An example for MIMO control, which has been paid more attention to recently by wind industry, is Model Predictive Control (MPC). In a MPC framework a simplified model of the WT is used to predict its controlled outputs. Based on a user-defined cost function an online optimization calculates the optimal control sequence. Thereby MPC can intrinsically incorporate constraints e.g. of actuators. Turbine models used for calculation within the MPC are typically simplified. For testing and verification usually multi body simulations, such as FAST, BLADED or FLEX5 are used to model system dynamics, but they are still limited in the number of degrees of freedom (DOF). Detailed information about load distribution (e.g. inside the gearbox) cannot be provided by such models. In this paper a Model Predictive Controller is presented and tested in a co-simulation with SlMPACK, a multi body system (MBS) simulation framework used for detailed load analysis. The analysis are performed on the basis of the IME6.0 MBS WT model, described in this paper. It is based on the rotor of the NREL 5MW WT and consists of a detailed representation of the drive train. This takes into account a flexible main shaft and its main bearings with a planetary gearbox, where all components are modelled flexible, as well as a supporting flexible main frame. The wind loads are simulated using the NREL AERODYN v13 code which has been implemented as a routine

  14. Model predictive control of a wind turbine modelled in Simpack

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jassmann, U.; Berroth, J.; Matzke, D.; Schelenz, R.; Reiter, M.; Jacobs, G.; Abel, D.

    2014-06-01

    Wind turbines (WT) are steadily growing in size to increase their power production, which also causes increasing loads acting on the turbine's components. At the same time large structures, such as the blades and the tower get more flexible. To minimize this impact, the classical control loops for keeping the power production in an optimum state are more and more extended by load alleviation strategies. These additional control loops can be unified by a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) controller to achieve better balancing of tuning parameters. An example for MIMO control, which has been paid more attention to recently by wind industry, is Model Predictive Control (MPC). In a MPC framework a simplified model of the WT is used to predict its controlled outputs. Based on a user-defined cost function an online optimization calculates the optimal control sequence. Thereby MPC can intrinsically incorporate constraints e.g. of actuators. Turbine models used for calculation within the MPC are typically simplified. For testing and verification usually multi body simulations, such as FAST, BLADED or FLEX5 are used to model system dynamics, but they are still limited in the number of degrees of freedom (DOF). Detailed information about load distribution (e.g. inside the gearbox) cannot be provided by such models. In this paper a Model Predictive Controller is presented and tested in a co-simulation with SlMPACK, a multi body system (MBS) simulation framework used for detailed load analysis. The analysis are performed on the basis of the IME6.0 MBS WT model, described in this paper. It is based on the rotor of the NREL 5MW WT and consists of a detailed representation of the drive train. This takes into account a flexible main shaft and its main bearings with a planetary gearbox, where all components are modelled flexible, as well as a supporting flexible main frame. The wind loads are simulated using the NREL AERODYN v13 code which has been implemented as a routine to

  15. Field and numerical study of wind and surface waves at short fetches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baydakov, Georgy; Kuznetsova, Alexandra; Sergeev, Daniil; Papko, Vladislav; Kandaurov, Alexander; Vdovin, Maxim; Troitskaya, Yuliya

    2016-04-01

    Measurements were carried out in 2012-2015 from May to October in the waters of Gorky Reservoir belonging to the Volga Cascade. The methods of the experiment focus on the study of airflow in the close proximity to the water surface. The sensors were positioned at the oceanographic Froude buoy including five two-component ultrasonic sensors WindSonic by Gill Instruments at different levels (0.1, 0.85, 1.3, 2.27, 5.26 meters above the mean water surface level), one water and three air temperature sensors, and three-channel wire wave gauge. One of wind sensors (0.1 m) was located on the float tracking the waveform for measuring the wind speed in the close proximity to the water surface. Basic parameters of the atmospheric boundary layer (the friction velocity u∗, the wind speed U10 and the drag coefficient CD) were calculated from the measured profiles of wind speed. Parameters were obtained in the range of wind speeds of 1-12 m/s. For wind speeds stronger than 4 m/s CD values were lower than those obtained before (see eg. [1,2]) and those predicted by the bulk parameterization. However, for weak winds (less than 3 m/s) CD values considerably higher than expected ones. The new parameterization of surface drag coefficient was proposed on the basis of the obtained data. The suggested parameterization of drag coefficient CD(U10) was implemented within wind input source terms in WAVEWATCH III [3]. The results of the numerical experiments were compared with the results obtained in the field experiments on the Gorky Reservoir. The use of the new drag coefficient improves the agreement in significant wave heights HS [4]. At the same time, the predicted mean wave periods are overestimated using both built-in source terms and adjusted source terms. We associate it with the necessity of the adjusting of the DIA nonlinearity model in WAVEWATCH III to the conditions of the middle-sized reservoir. Test experiments on the adjusting were carried out. The work was supported by the

  16. FY 1998 Report on development of large-scale wind power generation systems. Feasibility study on development of new technologies for wind power generation, and study on local wind resource prediction model; 1998 nendo ogata furyoku hatsuden system kaihatsu seika hokokusho. Furyoku hatsuden shingijutsu kaihatsu kanosei chosa (kyokusho fukyo yosoku shuho ni kansuru chosa)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-03-01

    Described herein are the FY 1998 results of the study on local wind resource prediction model. The local wind resource prediction models developed so far apply the solutions based on the existing linear models (WASP and AVENU) for relatively flat terrain. These models are studied for their applicability limits. The study covers wind direction and speed patterns of the surface wind and upper winds at 3 sites in Hokkaido, Fukushima Pref. and Shizuoka Pref. The surface winds are found to be correlated with the upper winds both for wind direction and wind speed in almost all cases. Next, wind resources simulations are carried out for each of the classified weather patterns using the existing models, and the prediction errors are studied. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the existing linear models is highly dependent on inputs of observed data, and that the accuracy tends to decrease for the situations where the upper and surface wind conditions greatly differ from each other, as in the case of a land and sea breeze of thermal origin. It is also confirmed that prediction accuracy is lower on complex terrain than on flat terrain. (NEDO)

  17. Performance and wake predictions of HAWTs in wind farms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leclerc, C.; Masson, C.; Paraschivoiu, I. [Ecole Polytechnique, Montreal (Canada)

    1997-12-31

    The present contribution proposes and describes a promising way towards performance prediction of an arbitrary array of turbines. It is based on the solution of the time-averaged, steady-state, incompressible Navier-Stokes equations with an appropriate turbulence closure model. The turbines are represented by distributions of momentum sources in the Navier-Stokes equations. In this paper, the applicability and viability of the proposed methodology is demonstrated using an axisymmetric implementation. The k-{epsilon} model has been chosen for the closure of the time-averaged, turbulent flow equations and the properties of the incident flow correspond to those of a neutral atmospheric boundary layer. The proposed mathematical model is solved using a Control-Volume Finite Element Method (CVFEM). Detailed results have been obtained using the proposed method for an isolated wind turbine and for two turbines one behind another. In the case of an isolated turbine, accurate wake velocity deficit predictions are obtained and an increase in power due to atmospheric turbulence is found in agreement with measurements. In the case of two turbines, the proposed methodology provides an appropriate modelling of the wind-turbine wake and a realistic prediction of the performance degradation of the downstream turbine.

  18. Comparison of Flight Measured, Predicted and Wind Tunnel Measured Winglet Characteristics on a KC-135 Aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodson, R. O., Jr.

    1982-01-01

    One of the objectives of the KC-135 Winglet Flight Research and Demonstration Program was to obtain experimental flight test data to verify the theoretical and wind tunnel winglet aerodynamic performance prediction methods. Good agreement between analytic, wind tunnel and flight test performance was obtained when the known differences between the tests and analyses were accounted for. The flight test measured fuel mileage improvements for a 0.78 Mach number was 3.1 percent at 8 x 10(5) pounds W/delta and 5.5 percent at 1.05 x 10(6) pounds W/delta. Correcting the flight measured data for surface pressure differences between wind tunnel and flight resulted in a fuel mileage improvement of 4.4 percent at 8 x 10(5) pounds W/delta and 7.2 percent at 1.05 x 10(6) pounds W/delta. The performance improvement obtained was within the wind tunnel test data obtained from two different wind tunnel models. The buffet boundary data obtained for the baseline configuration was in good agreement with previous established data. Buffet data for the 15 deg cant/-4 deg incidence configuration showed a slight improvement, while the 15 deg cant/-2 deg incidence and 0 deg cant/-4 deg incidence data showed a slight deterioration.

  19. Surface wind mixing in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Robin; Hartlipp, Paul

    2017-12-01

    Mixing at the ocean surface is key for atmosphere-ocean interactions and the distribution of heat, energy, and gases in the upper ocean. Winds are the primary force for surface mixing. To properly simulate upper ocean dynamics and the flux of these quantities within the upper ocean, models must reproduce mixing in the upper ocean. To evaluate the performance of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) in replicating the surface mixing, the results of four different vertical mixing parameterizations were compared against observations, using the surface mixed layer depth, the temperature fields, and observed diffusivities for comparisons. The vertical mixing parameterizations investigated were Mellor- Yamada 2.5 level turbulent closure (MY), Large- McWilliams- Doney Kpp (LMD), Nakanishi- Niino (NN), and the generic length scale (GLS) schemes. This was done for one temperate site in deep water in the Eastern Pacific and three shallow water sites in the Baltic Sea. The model reproduced the surface mixed layer depth reasonably well for all sites; however, the temperature fields were reproduced well for the deep site, but not for the shallow Baltic Sea sites. In the Baltic Sea, the models overmixed the water column after a few days. Vertical temperature diffusivities were higher than those observed and did not show the temporal fluctuations present in the observations. The best performance was by NN and MY; however, MY became unstable in two of the shallow simulations with high winds. The performance of GLS nearly as good as NN and MY. LMD had the poorest performance as it generated temperature diffusivities that were too high and induced too much mixing. Further observational comparisons are needed to evaluate the effects of different stratification and wind conditions and the limitations on the vertical mixing parameterizations.

  20. PREDICTION OF POWER GENERATION OF SMALL SCALE VERTICAL AXIS WIND TURBINE USING FUZZY LOGIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Altab Hossain

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Renewable energy from the wind turbine has been focused for the alternative source of power generation due to the following advances of the of the wind turbine. Firstly, the wind turbine is highly efficient and eco-friendly. Secondly, the turbine has the ability to response for the changeable power generation based on the wind velocity and structural framework. However, the competitive efficiency of the wind turbine is necessary to successfully alternate the conventional power sources. The most relevant factor which affects the overall efficiency of the wind turbine is the wind velocity and the relative turbine dimensions. Artificial intelligence systems are widely used technology that can learn from examples and are able to deal with non-linear problems. Compared with traditional approach, fuzzy logic approach is more efficient for the representation, manipulation and utilization. Therefore, the primary purpose of this work was to investigate the relationship between wind turbine power generation and wind velocity, and to illustrate how fuzzy expert system might play an important role in prediction of wind turbine power generation. The main purpose of the measurement over the small scaled prototype vertical axis wind turbine for the wind velocity is to predict the performance of full scaled H-type vertical axis wind turbine. Prediction of power generation at the different wind velocities has been tested at the Thermal Laboratory of Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Industri Selangor (UNISEL and results concerning the daily prediction have been obtained.

  1. PREDICTION OF POWER GENERATION OF SMALL SCALE VERTICAL AXIS WIND TURBINE USING FUZZY LOGIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Altab Md. Hossain

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Renewable energy from the wind turbine has been focused for the alternative source of power generation due to the following advances of the of the wind turbine. Firstly, the wind turbine is highly efficient and eco-friendly. Secondly, the turbine has the ability to response for the changeable power generation based on the wind velocity and structural framework. However, the competitive efficiency of the wind turbine is necessary to successfully alternate the conventional power sources. The most relevant factor which affects the overall efficiency of the wind turbine is the wind velocity and the relative turbine dimensions. Artificial intelligence systems are widely used technology that can learn from examples and are able to deal with non-linear problems. Compared with traditional approach, fuzzy logic approach is more efficient for the representation, manipulation and utilization. Therefore, the primary purpose of this work was to investigate the relationship between wind turbine power generation and wind velocity, and to illustrate how fuzzy expert system might play an important role in prediction of wind turbine power generation. The main purpose of the measurement over the small scaled prototype vertical axis wind turbine for the wind velocity is to predict the performance of full scaled H-type vertical axis wind turbine. Prediction of power generation at the different wind velocities has been tested at the Thermal Laboratory of Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Industri Selangor (UNISEL and results concerning the daily prediction have been obtained.

  2. Predicting wind shear effects: A study of Minnesota wind data collected at heights up to 70 meters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Artig, R. [Minnesota Dept. of Public Service, St. Paul, MN (United States)

    1997-12-31

    The Minnesota Department of Public Service (DPS) collects wind data at carefully selected sites around the state and analyzes the data to determine Minnesota`s wind power potential. DPS recently installed advanced new monitoring equipment at these sites and began to collect wind data at 30, 50, and 70 meters above ground level, with two anemometers at each level. Previously, the Department had not collected data at heights above ground level higher than 30 meters. DPS also, with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), installed four sophisticated monitoring sites as part of a Tall Tower Wind Shear Study that is assessing the effects of wind shear on wind power potential. At these sites, wind data are being collected at the 10, 30, 40, 50, 60, and 70 meter heights. This paper presents the preliminary results of the analysis of wind data from all sites. These preliminary results indicate that the traditional 1/7 power law does not effectively predict wind shear in Minnesota, and the result is an underestimation of Minnesota`s wind power potential at higher heights. Using a power factor of 1/5 or 1/4 may be more accurate and provide sound justification for installing wind turbines on taller towers in Minnesota.

  3. A new approach to very short term wind speed prediction using k-nearest neighbor classification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yesilbudak, Mehmet; Sagiroglu, Seref; Colak, Ilhami

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Wind speed parameter was predicted in an n-tupled inputs using k-NN classification. ► The effects of input parameters, nearest neighbors and distance metrics were analyzed. ► Many useful and reasonable inferences were uncovered using the developed model. - Abstract: Wind energy is an inexhaustible energy source and wind power production has been growing rapidly in recent years. However, wind power has a non-schedulable nature due to wind speed variations. Hence, wind speed prediction is an indispensable requirement for power system operators. This paper predicts wind speed parameter in an n-tupled inputs using k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) classification and analyzes the effects of input parameters, nearest neighbors and distance metrics on wind speed prediction. The k-NN classification model was developed using the object oriented programming techniques and includes Manhattan and Minkowski distance metrics except from Euclidean distance metric on the contrary of literature. The k-NN classification model which uses wind direction, air temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity parameters in a 4-tupled space achieved the best wind speed prediction for k = 5 in the Manhattan distance metric. Differently, the k-NN classification model which uses wind direction, air temperature and atmospheric pressure parameters in a 3-tupled inputs gave the worst wind speed prediction for k = 1 in the Minkowski distance metric

  4. The Role of Surface Energy Exchange for Simulating Wind Inflow: An Evaluation of Multiple Land Surface Models in WRF for the Southern Great Plains Site Field Campaign Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wharton, Sonia [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Simpson, Matthew [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Osuna, Jessica [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Newman, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Biraud, Sebastien [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to investigate choice of land surface model (LSM) on the near-surface wind profile, including heights reached by multi-megawatt wind turbines. Simulations of wind profiles and surface energy fluxes were made using five LSMs of varying degrees of sophistication in dealing with soil-plant-atmosphere feedbacks for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility in Oklahoma. Surface-flux and wind-profile measurements were available for validation. The WRF model was run for three two-week periods during which varying canopy and meteorological conditions existed. The LSMs predicted a wide range of energy-flux and wind-shear magnitudes even during the cool autumn period when we expected less variability. Simulations of energy fluxes varied in accuracy by model sophistication, whereby LSMs with very simple or no soil-plant-atmosphere feedbacks were the least accurate; however, the most complex models did not consistently produce more accurate results. Errors in wind shear also were sensitive to LSM choice and were partially related to the accuracy of energy flux data. The variability of LSM performance was relatively high, suggesting that LSM representation of energy fluxes in the WRF model remains a significant source of uncertainty for simulating wind turbine inflow conditions.

  5. Role of Surface Energy Exchange for Simulating Wind Turbine Inflow: A Case Study in the Southern Great Plains, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia Wharton

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is used to investigate choice of land surface model (LSM on the near surface wind profile, including heights reached by multi-megawatt (MW wind turbines. Simulations of wind profiles and surface energy fluxes were made using five LSMs of varying degrees of sophistication in dealing with soil–plant–atmosphere feedbacks for the Department of Energy (DOE Southern Great Plains (SGP Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM Central Facility in Oklahoma, USA. Surface flux and wind profile measurements were available for validation. WRF was run for three, two-week periods covering varying canopy and meteorological conditions. The LSMs predicted a wide range of energy flux and wind shear magnitudes even during the cool autumn period when we expected less variability. Simulations of energy fluxes varied in accuracy by model sophistication, whereby LSMs with very simple or no soil–plant–atmosphere feedbacks were the least accurate; however, the most complex models did not consistently produce more accurate results. Errors in wind shear were also sensitive to LSM choice and were partially related to energy flux accuracy. The variability of LSM performance was relatively high suggesting that LSM representation of energy fluxes in WRF remains a large source of model uncertainty for simulating wind turbine inflow conditions.

  6. Benefits for wind energy in electricity markets from using short term wind power prediction tools: a simulation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usaola, J.; Ravelo, O.; Gonzalez, G.; Soto, F.; Davila, M.C.; Diaz-Guerra, B.

    2004-01-01

    One of the characteristics of wind energy, from the grid point of view, is its non-dispatchability, i.e. generation cannot be ordered, hence integration in electrical networks may be difficult. Short-term wind power prediction-tools could make this integration easier, either by their use by the grid System Operator, or by promoting the participation of wind farms in the electricity markets and using prediction tools to make their bids in the market. In this paper, the importance of a short-term wind power-prediction tool for the participation of wind energy systems in electricity markets is studied. Simulations, according to the current Spanish market rules, have been performed to the production of different wind farms, with different degrees of accuracy in the prediction tool. It may be concluded that income from participation in electricity markets is increased using a short-term wind power prediction-tool of average accuracy. This both marginally increases income and also reduces the impact on system operation with the improved forecasts. (author)

  7. Repetitive model predictive approach to individual pitch control of wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adegas, Fabiano Daher; Stoustrup, Jakob; Odgaard, Peter Fogh

    2011-01-01

    prediction. As a consequence, individual pitch feed-forward control action is generated by the controller, taking ”future” wind disturbance into account. Information about the estimated wind spatial distribution one blade experience can be used in the prediction model to better control the next passing blade......Wind turbines are inherently exposed to nonuniform wind fields with of wind shear, tower shadow, and possible wake contributions. Asymmetrical aerodynamic rotor loads are a consequence of such periodic, repetitive wind disturbances experienced by the blades. A controller may estimate and use...... this peculiar disturbance pattern to better attenuate loads and regulate power by controlling the blade pitch angles individually. A novel model predictive (MPC) approach for individual pitch control of wind turbines is proposed in this paper. A repetitive wind disturbance model is incorporated into the MPC...

  8. How Many Model Evaluations Are Required To Predict The AEP Of A Wind Power Plant?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murcia Leon, Juan Pablo; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Natarajan, Anand

    2015-01-01

    (AEP) predictions expensive. The objective of the present paper is to minimize the number of model evaluations required to capture the wind power plant's AEP using stationary wind farm flow models. Polynomial chaos techniques are proposed based on arbitrary Weibull distributed wind speed and Von Misses...... distributed wind direction. The correlation between wind direction and wind speed are captured by defining Weibull-parameters as functions of wind direction. In order to evaluate the accuracy of these methods the expectation and variance of the wind farm power distributions are compared against...... the traditional binning method with trapezoidal and Simpson's integration rules. The wind farm flow model used in this study is the semi-empirical wake model developed by Larsen [1]. Three test cases are studied: a single turbine, a simple and a real offshore wind power plant. A reduced number of model...

  9. Variation of air--water gas transfer with wind stress and surface viscoelasticity

    OpenAIRE

    Frew, Nelson M.; Bock, Erik J.; McGillis, Wade R.; Karachintsev, Andrey V.; Hara, Tetsu; Münsterer, Thomas; Jähne, Bernd

    1995-01-01

    Previous parameterizations of gas transfer velocity have attempted to cast this quantity as a function of wind speed or wind-stress. This study demonstrates that the presence of a surface film is effective at reducing the gas transfer velocity at constant wind-stress. Gas exchange experiments were performed at WHOI and UH using annular wind-wave tanks of different scales. Systematic variations of wind-stress and surfactant concentration (Triton-X-100) were explored to determ...

  10. Wind-induced contaminant transport in near-surface soils with application to radon entry into buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Riley, William Jowett [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    1996-05-01

    Indoor air exposures to gaseous contaminants originating in soil can cause large human health risks. To predict and control these exposures, the mechanisms that affect vapor transport in near-surface soils need to be understood. In particular, radon exposure is a concern since average indoor radon concentrations lead to much higher risks than are generally accepted for exposure to other environmental contaminants. This dissertation examines an important component of the indoor radon problem: the impacts of wind on soil-gas and radon transport and entry into buildings. The research includes experimental and modeling studies of wind`s interactions with a building`s superstructure and the resulting soil-gas and radon flows in the surrounding soil. In addition to exploring the effects of steady winds, a novel modeling technique is developed to examine the impacts of fluctuating winds on soil-gas and radon transport.

  11. Wind Speed Prediction with Wavelet Time Series Based on Lorenz Disturbance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZHANG, Y.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Due to the sustainable and pollution-free characteristics, wind energy has been one of the fastest growing renewable energy sources. However, the intermittent and random fluctuation of wind speed presents many challenges for reliable wind power integration and normal operation of wind farm. Accurate wind speed prediction is the key to ensure the safe operation of power system and to develop wind energy resources. Therefore, this paper has presented a wavelet time series wind speed prediction model based on Lorenz disturbance. Therefore, in this paper, combined with the atmospheric dynamical system, a wavelet-time series improved wind speed prediction model based on Lorenz disturbance is proposed and the wind turbines of different climate types in Spain and China are used to simulate the disturbances of Lorenz equations with different initial values. The prediction results show that the improved model can effectively correct the preliminary prediction of wind speed, improving the prediction. In a word, the research work in this paper will be helpful to arrange the electric power dispatching plan and ensure the normal operation of the wind farm.

  12. DISTRIBUTED EXTERNAL SURFACE HARDENING OF CAR DESIGN BY WINDING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. V. Fomin

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The paper involves coverage of features and results of the research conducted by the authors to determine the feasibility and establishment of pre-stressed-strained state of freight cars by winding in order to improve their strength characteristics. It is also necessary to present the theoretical justification for the effectiveness of the application of this method for car designs and an appropriate example for the tank-car. Methodology. The conducted study is based on an analysis of known works on the subject, mathematical justification and computer modeling. At the calculations of rolling stock components contemporary conventional techniques were used. Findings. Authors found that the winding method for pre-stressed-strained state is effective and appropriate for use in the construction of railway rolling stock and, in particular freight cars. Freight car designs with the pre-stressed-strained state are characterized by a number of strength advantages, among which there is an improvement of the work on the perception of operational loads and resource conservation. Originality. For the first time it is proposed the improvement of bearing capacity of freight car constructions through the creation of its component in the directed stress-strained state. It is also for the first time proposed the use of distributed external surface hardening by the method of winding to create a pre-stress-strained state of structural components of freight cars. The methods for winding designs of freight cars and their implementation were considered. Practical value. The studies developed a number of technical solutions for improving the design of freight cars and tank-container, which has been patented. Corresponding solutions for the tank-car are partially presented. Practical implementation of such solutions will significantly improve the technical, economic and operational performances of car designs.

  13. Optimal day-ahead wind-thermal unit commitment considering statistical and predicted features of wind speeds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Yanan; Dong, Jizhe; Ding, Lijuan

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A day–ahead wind–thermal unit commitment model is presented. • Wind speed transfer matrix is formed to depict the sequential wind features. • Spinning reserve setting considering wind power accuracy and variation is proposed. • Verified study is performed to check the correctness of the program. - Abstract: The increasing penetration of intermittent wind power affects the secure operation of power systems and leads to a requirement of robust and economic generation scheduling. This paper presents an optimal day–ahead wind–thermal generation scheduling method that considers the statistical and predicted features of wind speeds. In this method, the statistical analysis of historical wind data, which represents the local wind regime, is first implemented. Then, according to the statistical results and the predicted wind power, the spinning reserve requirements for the scheduling period are calculated. Based on the calculated spinning reserve requirements, the wind–thermal generation scheduling is finally conducted. To validate the program, a verified study is performed on a test system. Then, numerical studies to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method are conducted.

  14. New method to design stellarator coils without the winding surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Caoxiang; Hudson, Stuart R.; Song, Yuntao; Wan, Yuanxi

    2018-01-01

    Finding an easy-to-build coils set has been a critical issue for stellarator design for decades. Conventional approaches assume a toroidal ‘winding’ surface, but a poorly chosen winding surface can unnecessarily constrain the coil optimization algorithm, This article presents a new method to design coils for stellarators. Each discrete coil is represented as an arbitrary, closed, one-dimensional curve embedded in three-dimensional space. A target function to be minimized that includes both physical requirements and engineering constraints is constructed. The derivatives of the target function with respect to the parameters describing the coil geometries and currents are calculated analytically. A numerical code, named flexible optimized coils using space curves (FOCUS), has been developed. Applications to a simple stellarator configuration, W7-X and LHD vacuum fields are presented.

  15. On Practical tuning of Model Uncertainty in Wind Turbine Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Hovgaard, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Model predictive control (MPC) has in previous works been applied on wind turbines with promising results. These results apply linear MPC, i.e., linear models linearized at different operational points depending on the wind speed. The linearized models are derived from a nonlinear first principles...... model of a wind turbine. In this paper, we investigate the impact of this approach on the performance of a wind turbine. In particular, we focus on the most non-linear operational ranges of a wind turbine. The MPC controller is designed for, tested, and evaluated at an industrial high fidelity wind...

  16. Wind Turbine Generator Efficiency Based on Powertrain Combination and Annual Power Generation Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongmyung Kim

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Wind turbine generators are eco-friendly generators that produce electric energy using wind energy. In this study, wind turbine generator efficiency is examined using a powertrain combination and annual power generation prediction, by employing an analysis model. Performance testing was conducted in order to analyze the efficiency of a hydraulic pump and a motor, which are key components, and so as to verify the analysis model. The annual wind speed occurrence frequency for the expected installation areas was used to predict the annual power generation of the wind turbine generators. It was found that the parallel combination of the induction motors exhibited a higher efficiency when the wind speed was low and the serial combination showed higher efficiency when wind speed was high. The results of predicting the annual power generation considering the regional characteristics showed that the power generation was the highest when the hydraulic motors were designed in parallel and the induction motors were designed in series.

  17. Changes in Surface Wind Speed over North America from CMIP5 Model Projections and Implications for Wind Energy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujay Kulkarni

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The centennial trends in the surface wind speed over North America are deduced from global climate model simulations in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5 (CMIP5 archive. Using the 21st century simulations under the RCP 8.5 scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, 5–10 percent increases per century in the 10 m wind speed are found over Central and East-Central United States, the Californian Coast, and the South and East Coasts of the USA in winter. In summer, climate models projected decreases in the wind speed ranging from 5 to 10 percent per century over the same coastal regions. These projected changes in the surface wind speed are moderate and imply that the current estimate of wind power potential for North America based on present-day climatology will not be significantly changed by the greenhouse gas forcing in the coming decades.

  18. Wind effected redistribution of surface contamination. Progress report, September 1974--August 1975

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amato, A.J.

    1975-01-01

    Theoretical resuspension ratios were computed through the extension of a one-dimensional model used to simulate the wind effected movement of surface contaminants. The surface movement of contamination associated with inhalable size particles was considered in relation to time, space, wind velocity, distance from the source, soil resuspension ratios, and other variables. A computer program was developed to calculate the wind effected distribution of surface contaminants. (U.S.)

  19. Short-term wind power prediction based on LSSVM–GSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Xiaohui; Chen, Chen; Yuan, Yanbin; Huang, Yuehua; Tan, Qingxiong

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A hybrid model is developed for short-term wind power prediction. • The model is based on LSSVM and gravitational search algorithm. • Gravitational search algorithm is used to optimize parameters of LSSVM. • Effect of different kernel function of LSSVM on wind power prediction is discussed. • Comparative studies show that prediction accuracy of wind power is improved. - Abstract: Wind power forecasting can improve the economical and technical integration of wind energy into the existing electricity grid. Due to its intermittency and randomness, it is hard to forecast wind power accurately. For the purpose of utilizing wind power to the utmost extent, it is very important to make an accurate prediction of the output power of a wind farm under the premise of guaranteeing the security and the stability of the operation of the power system. In this paper, a hybrid model (LSSVM–GSA) based on the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and gravitational search algorithm (GSA) is proposed to forecast the short-term wind power. As the kernel function and the related parameters of the LSSVM have a great influence on the performance of the prediction model, the paper establishes LSSVM model based on different kernel functions for short-term wind power prediction. And then an optimal kernel function is determined and the parameters of the LSSVM model are optimized by using GSA. Compared with the Back Propagation (BP) neural network and support vector machine (SVM) model, the simulation results show that the hybrid LSSVM–GSA model based on exponential radial basis kernel function and GSA has higher accuracy for short-term wind power prediction. Therefore, the proposed LSSVM–GSA is a better model for short-term wind power prediction

  20. One-level modeling for diagnosing surface winds over complex terrain. II - Applicability to short-range forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alpert, P.; Getenio, B.; Zak-Rosenthal, R.

    1988-01-01

    The Alpert and Getenio (1988) modification of the Mass and Dempsey (1985) one-level sigma-surface model was used to study four synoptic events that included two winter cases (a Cyprus low and a Siberian high) and two summer cases. Results of statistical verification showed that the model is not only capable of diagnosing many details of surface mesoscale flow, but might also be useful for various applications which require operative short-range prediction of the diurnal changes of high-resolution surface flow over complex terrain, for example, in locating wildland fires, determining the dispersion of air pollutants, and predicting changes in wind energy or of surface wind for low-level air flights.

  1. Ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) and Superstorm Sandy (2012): Coupled model predictions and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuyi S.; Curcic, Milan

    2016-07-01

    Forecasting hurricane impacts of extreme winds and flooding requires accurate prediction of hurricane structure and storm-induced ocean surface waves days in advance. The waves are complex, especially near landfall when the hurricane winds and water depth varies significantly and the surface waves refract, shoal and dissipate. In this study, we examine the spatial structure, magnitude, and directional spectrum of hurricane-induced ocean waves using a high resolution, fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model and observations. The coupled model predictions of ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) over the Gulf of Mexico and Superstorm Sandy (2012) in the northeastern Atlantic and coastal region are evaluated with the NDBC buoy and satellite altimeter observations. Although there are characteristics that are general to ocean waves in both hurricanes as documented in previous studies, wave fields in Ike and Sandy possess unique properties due mostly to the distinct wind fields and coastal bathymetry in the two storms. Several processes are found to significantly modulate hurricane surface waves near landfall. First, the phase speed and group velocities decrease as the waves become shorter and steeper in shallow water, effectively increasing surface roughness and wind stress. Second, the bottom-induced refraction acts to turn the waves toward the coast, increasing the misalignment between the wind and waves. Third, as the hurricane translates over land, the left side of the storm center is characterized by offshore winds over very short fetch, which opposes incoming swell. Landfalling hurricanes produce broader wave spectra overall than that of the open ocean. The front-left quadrant is most complex, where the combination of windsea, swell propagating against the wind, increasing wind-wave stress, and interaction with the coastal topography requires a fully coupled model to meet these challenges in hurricane wave and surge prediction.

  2. Predictability of surface currents and fronts off the Mississippi Delta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, N.D.; Rouse, L.J.; Wiseman, W.J.

    2001-01-01

    The dynamic coastal region of the lower Mississippi River was examined under varying conditions of wind, river discharge and circulation patterns of the Gulf of Mexico. Nearly 7,000 deep-sea merchant vessels enter the port complex each year and the area boasts the highest concentration of offshore drilling rigs, rendering the Mississippi delta and adjacent coastal areas vulnerable to risk from oil spills. Satellite imagery has been useful in tracking movements of the Mississippi river plume as recognizable turbidity and temperature fronts are formed where river waters encounter ambient shelf waters. Oil spill modelers often base their predictions of oil movement on the surface wind field and surface currents, but past studies have indicated that this can be overly simplistic in regions affected by river flow because river fronts have significant control over the movement of oil in opposition to prevailing winds. Frontal zones, such as those found where river waters meet oceanic waters, are characterized by strong convergence of surface flow. These frontal zones can provide large and efficient traps or natural booms for spilled oil. In an effort to facilitate cleanup operations, this study made use of the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) AVHRR satellite imagery of temperature and reflectance to study front locations and their variability in space and time. The main objectives were to quantify surface temperature structure and locations of fronts throughout the year using satellite image data, to map the structure of the Mississippi sediment plume and to assess the forcing factors responsible for its variability over space and time. The final objective was to use in-situ measurements of surface currents together with satellite image data to better understand surface flow in this region of strong and variable currents. It was concluded that the main factors controlling circulation in the Mississippi River outflow region are river discharge and

  3. An appraisal of wind speed distribution prediction by soft computing methodologies: A comparative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petković, Dalibor; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Anuar, Nor Badrul; Saboohi, Hadi; Abdul Wahab, Ainuddin Wahid; Protić, Milan; Zalnezhad, Erfan; Mirhashemi, Seyed Mohammad Amin

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Probabilistic distribution functions of wind speed. • Two parameter Weibull probability distribution. • To build an effective prediction model of distribution of wind speed. • Support vector regression application as probability function for wind speed. - Abstract: The probabilistic distribution of wind speed is among the more significant wind characteristics in examining wind energy potential and the performance of wind energy conversion systems. When the wind speed probability distribution is known, the wind energy distribution can be easily obtained. Therefore, the probability distribution of wind speed is a very important piece of information required in assessing wind energy potential. For this reason, a large number of studies have been established concerning the use of a variety of probability density functions to describe wind speed frequency distributions. Although the two-parameter Weibull distribution comprises a widely used and accepted method, solving the function is very challenging. In this study, the polynomial and radial basis functions (RBF) are applied as the kernel function of support vector regression (SVR) to estimate two parameters of the Weibull distribution function according to previously established analytical methods. Rather than minimizing the observed training error, SVR p oly and SVR r bf attempt to minimize the generalization error bound, so as to achieve generalized performance. According to the experimental results, enhanced predictive accuracy and capability of generalization can be achieved using the SVR approach compared to other soft computing methodologies

  4. An optimal design of wind turbine and ship structure based on neuro-response surface method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Chul Lee

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The geometry of engineering systems affects their performances. For this reason, the shape of engineering systems needs to be optimized in the initial design stage. However, engineering system design problems consist of multi-objective optimization and the performance analysis using commercial code or numerical analysis is generally time-consuming. To solve these problems, many engineers perform the optimization using the approximation model (response surface. The Response Surface Method (RSM is generally used to predict the system performance in engi-neering research field, but RSM presents some prediction errors for highly nonlinear systems. The major objective of this research is to establish an optimal design method for multi-objective problems and confirm its applicability. The proposed process is composed of three parts: definition of geometry, generation of response surface, and optimization process. To reduce the time for performance analysis and minimize the prediction errors, the approximation model is generated using the Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network (BPANN which is considered as Neuro-Response Surface Method (NRSM. The optimization is done for the generated response surface by non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II. Through case studies of marine system and ship structure (substructure of floating offshore wind turbine considering hydrodynamics performances and bulk carrier bottom stiffened panels considering structure performance, we have confirmed the applicability of the proposed method for multi-objective side constraint optimization problems.

  5. An optimal design of wind turbine and ship structure based on neuro-response surface method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae-Chul; Shin, Sung-Chul; Kim, Soo-Young

    2015-07-01

    The geometry of engineering systems affects their performances. For this reason, the shape of engineering systems needs to be optimized in the initial design stage. However, engineering system design problems consist of multi-objective optimization and the performance analysis using commercial code or numerical analysis is generally time-consuming. To solve these problems, many engineers perform the optimization using the approximation model (response surface). The Response Surface Method (RSM) is generally used to predict the system performance in engineering research field, but RSM presents some prediction errors for highly nonlinear systems. The major objective of this research is to establish an optimal design method for multi-objective problems and confirm its applicability. The proposed process is composed of three parts: definition of geometry, generation of response surface, and optimization process. To reduce the time for performance analysis and minimize the prediction errors, the approximation model is generated using the Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network (BPANN) which is considered as Neuro-Response Surface Method (NRSM). The optimization is done for the generated response surface by non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II). Through case studies of marine system and ship structure (substructure of floating offshore wind turbine considering hydrodynamics performances and bulk carrier bottom stiffened panels considering structure performance), we have confirmed the applicability of the proposed method for multi-objective side constraint optimization problems.

  6. Effect of accuracy of wind power prediction on power system operator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlueter, R. A.; Sigari, G.; Costi, T.

    1985-01-01

    This research project proposed a modified unit commitment that schedules connection and disconnection of generating units in response to load. A modified generation control is also proposed that controls steam units under automatic generation control, fast responding diesels, gas turbines and hydro units under a feedforward control, and wind turbine array output under a closed loop array control. This modified generation control and unit commitment require prediction of trend wind power variation one hour ahead and the prediction of error in this trend wind power prediction one half hour ahead. An improved meter for predicting trend wind speed variation is developed. Methods for accurately simulating the wind array power from a limited number of wind speed prediction records was developed. Finally, two methods for predicting the error in the trend wind power prediction were developed. This research provides a foundation for testing and evaluating the modified unit commitment and generation control that was developed to maintain operating reliability at a greatly reduced overall production cost for utilities with wind generation capacity.

  7. Comparison of AMSR-2 wind speed and sea surface temperature ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    68

    characteristics and variable features where the wind circulation pattern is ..... is extended to understand the quality of AMSR-2 wind speed in a constructive ...... New Disclosures (potential conflicts of interest, funding, acknowledgements):.

  8. Residence time of contaminants released in surface coal mines -- a wind-tunnel study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thompson, R.S. [Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)

    1994-12-31

    Surface coal mining operations (blasting, shoveling, loading, trucking, etc.) are sources of airborne particles. The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments direct the EPA to analyze the accuracy of the Industrial Source Complex model and the AP-42 emission factors, and to make revisions as may be necessary to eliminate any significant over-prediction of air concentration of fugitive particles from surface coal mines. A wind-tunnel study was performed at the US EPA`s Fluid Modeling Facility to investigate dispersion from surface coal mines in support of the dispersion modeling activities. Described here is the portion of the study directed at determining the residence time that material released near the floor of a mine will stay within the mine.

  9. Wind-induced contaminant transport in near-surface soils with application to radon entry into buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riley, W.J.

    1996-05-01

    Indoor air exposures to gaseous contaminants originating in soil can cause large human health risks. To predict and control these exposures, the mechanisms that affect vapor transport in near-surface soils need to be understood. In particular, radon exposure is a concern since average indoor radon concentrations lead to much higher risks than are generally accepted for exposure to other environmental contaminants. This dissertation examines an important component of the indoor radon problem: the impacts of wind on soil-gas and radon transport and entry into buildings. The research includes experimental and modeling studies of wind's interactions with a building's superstructure and the resulting soil-gas and radon flows in the surrounding soil. In addition to exploring the effects of steady winds, a novel modeling technique is developed to examine the impacts of fluctuating winds on soil-gas and radon transport

  10. How Many Model Evaluations Are Required To Predict The AEP Of A Wind Power Plant?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murcia, J P; Réthoré, P E; Natarajan, A; Sørensen, J D

    2015-01-01

    Wind farm flow models have advanced considerably with the use of large eddy simulations (LES) and Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) computations. The main limitation of these techniques is their high computational time requirements; which makes their use for wind farm annual energy production (AEP) predictions expensive. The objective of the present paper is to minimize the number of model evaluations required to capture the wind power plant's AEP using stationary wind farm flow models. Polynomial chaos techniques are proposed based on arbitrary Weibull distributed wind speed and Von Misses distributed wind direction. The correlation between wind direction and wind speed are captured by defining Weibull-parameters as functions of wind direction. In order to evaluate the accuracy of these methods the expectation and variance of the wind farm power distributions are compared against the traditional binning method with trapezoidal and Simpson's integration rules.The wind farm flow model used in this study is the semi-empirical wake model developed by Larsen [1]. Three test cases are studied: a single turbine, a simple and a real offshore wind power plant. A reduced number of model evaluations for a general wind power plant is proposed based on the convergence of the present method for each case. (paper)

  11. Coordinated Voltage Control of a Wind Farm based on Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei; Guo, Qinglai

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents an autonomous wind farm voltage controller based on Model Predictive Control (MPC). The reactive power compensation and voltage regulation devices of the wind farm include Static Var Compensators (SVCs), Static Var Generators (SVGs), Wind Turbine Generators (WTGs) and On...... are calculated based on an analytical method to improve the computation efficiency and overcome the convergence problem. Two control modes are designed for both voltage violated and normal operation conditions. A wind farm with 20 wind turbines was used to conduct case studies to verify the proposed coordinated...

  12. Validated Loads Prediction Models for Offshore Wind Turbines for Enhanced Component Reliability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koukoura, Christina

    To improve the reliability of offshore wind turbines, accurate prediction of their response is required. Therefore, validation of models with site measurements is imperative. In the present thesis a 3.6MW pitch regulated-variable speed offshore wind turbine on a monopole foundation is built...... are used for the modification of the sub-structure/foundation design for possible material savings. First, the background of offshore wind engineering, including wind-wave conditions, support structure, blade loading and wind turbine dynamics are presented. Second, a detailed description of the site...

  13. Comparison of AMSR-2 wind speed and sea surface temperature ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The SST–wind relation is analyzed using data both from the buoy and satellite. As a result, the low- SST is associated with low-wind condition (positive slope) in the northern part of the Bay of Bengal (BoB), while low SST values are associated with high wind conditions (negative slope) over the southern BoB. Moreover, the ...

  14. A study of single multiplicative neuron model with nonlinear filters for hourly wind speed prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Xuedong; Zhu, Zhiyu; Su, Xunliang; Fan, Shaosheng; Du, Zhaoping; Chang, Yanchao; Zeng, Qingjun

    2015-01-01

    Wind speed prediction is one important methods to guarantee the wind energy integrated into the whole power system smoothly. However, wind power has a non–schedulable nature due to the strong stochastic nature and dynamic uncertainty nature of wind speed. Therefore, wind speed prediction is an indispensable requirement for power system operators. Two new approaches for hourly wind speed prediction are developed in this study by integrating the single multiplicative neuron model and the iterated nonlinear filters for updating the wind speed sequence accurately. In the presented methods, a nonlinear state–space model is first formed based on the single multiplicative neuron model and then the iterated nonlinear filters are employed to perform dynamic state estimation on wind speed sequence with stochastic uncertainty. The suggested approaches are demonstrated using three cases wind speed data and are compared with autoregressive moving average, artificial neural network, kernel ridge regression based residual active learning and single multiplicative neuron model methods. Three types of prediction errors, mean absolute error improvement ratio and running time are employed for different models’ performance comparison. Comparison results from Tables 1–3 indicate that the presented strategies have much better performance for hourly wind speed prediction than other technologies. - Highlights: • Developed two novel hybrid modeling methods for hourly wind speed prediction. • Uncertainty and fluctuations of wind speed can be better explained by novel methods. • Proposed strategies have online adaptive learning ability. • Proposed approaches have shown better performance compared with existed approaches. • Comparison and analysis of two proposed novel models for three cases are provided

  15. Stochastic Prediction of Wind Generating Resources Using the Enhanced Ensemble Model for Jeju Island’s Wind Farms in South Korea

    OpenAIRE

    Deockho Kim; Jin Hur

    2017-01-01

    Due to the intermittency of wind power generation, it is very hard to manage its system operation and planning. In order to incorporate higher wind power penetrations into power systems that maintain secure and economic power system operation, an accurate and efficient estimation of wind power outputs is needed. In this paper, we propose the stochastic prediction of wind generating resources using an enhanced ensemble model for Jeju Island’s wind farms in South Korea. When selecting the poten...

  16. Northerly surface winds over the eastern North Pacific Ocean in spring and summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, S.V.; Cayan, D.R.; Graham, N.E.; Georgakakos, K.P.

    2008-01-01

    Persistent spring and summer northerly surface winds are the defining climatological feature of the western coast of North America, especially south of the Oregon coast. Northerly surface winds are important for upwelling and a vast array of other biological, oceanic, and atmospheric processes. Intermittence in northerly coastal surface wind is characterized and wind events are quantitatively defined using coastal buoy data south of Cape Mendocino on the northern California coast. The defined wind events are then used as a basis for composites in order to explain the spatial evolution of various atmospheric and oceanic processes. Wind events involve large-scale changes in the three-dimensional atmospheric circulation including the eastern North Pacific subtropical anticyclone and southeast trade winds. Composites of QSCAT satellite scatterometer wind estimates from 1999 to 2005 based on a single coastal buoy indicate that wind events typically last 72-96 h and result in anomalies in surface wind and Ekman pumping that extend over 1000 kin from the west coast of North America. It may be useful to consider ocean circulation and dependent ecosystem dynamics and the distribution of temperature, moisture, and aerosols in the atmospheric boundary layer in the context of wind events defined herein. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

  17. Predicting Faults in Wind Turbines Using SCADA Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borchersen, Anders Bech; Larsen, Jesper Abildgaard; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2013-01-01

    The cost of operation and maintenance of wind turbines is a significant part of the overall cost of wind turbines. To reduce this cost a method for enabling early fault detection is proposed and tested in this paper. The method is taking advantage of the fact that wind turbines in wind farms...... and tested on historical Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) data from nine operational turbines over a testing period of nine months. The performance of the fault detection is found to be acceptable based on the testing period. During the testing period several gear related services were...

  18. Development of Wind Farm AEP Prediction Program Considering Directional Wake Effect

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Kyoungboo; Cho, Kyungho; Huh, Jongchul [Jeju Nat’l Univ., Jeju (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-07-15

    For accurate AEP prediction in a wind farm, it is necessary to effectively calculate the wind speed reduction and the power loss due to the wake effect in each wind direction. In this study, a computer program for AEP prediction considering directional wake effect was developed. The results of the developed program were compared with the actual AEP of the wind farm and the calculation result of existing commercial software to confirm the accuracy of prediction. The applied equations are identical with those of commercial software based on existing theories, but there is a difference in the calculation process of the detection of the wake effect area in each wind direction. As a result, the developed program predicted to be less than 1% of difference to the actual capacity factor and showed more than 2% of better results compared with the existing commercial software.

  19. Increasing the competitiveness of wind energy. New technologies for advanced wind predictability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertolotti, Fabio

    2013-01-01

    The performance of thermal and nuclear power plants is assessed routinely and precisely, whereas the performance assessment of wind turbines is lagging far behind. This increases operational costs, reduces energy capture, and makes wind energy less competitive. The paper presents a technology and system with improved 24-h power forecasting, as well as condition monitoring of the rotor blades. The system can be employed by any wind power plant and offers potentials to increase the competitiveness of the power industry. (orig.)

  20. Short-term prediction method of wind speed series based on fractal interpolation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiu, Chunbo; Wang, Tiantian; Tian, Meng; Li, Yanqing; Cheng, Yi

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • An improved fractal interpolation prediction method is proposed. • The chaos optimization algorithm is used to obtain the iterated function system. • The fractal extrapolate interpolation prediction of wind speed series is performed. - Abstract: In order to improve the prediction performance of the wind speed series, the rescaled range analysis is used to analyze the fractal characteristics of the wind speed series. An improved fractal interpolation prediction method is proposed to predict the wind speed series whose Hurst exponents are close to 1. An optimization function which is composed of the interpolation error and the constraint items of the vertical scaling factors in the fractal interpolation iterated function system is designed. The chaos optimization algorithm is used to optimize the function to resolve the optimal vertical scaling factors. According to the self-similarity characteristic and the scale invariance, the fractal extrapolate interpolation prediction can be performed by extending the fractal characteristic from internal interval to external interval. Simulation results show that the fractal interpolation prediction method can get better prediction result than others for the wind speed series with the fractal characteristic, and the prediction performance of the proposed method can be improved further because the fractal characteristic of its iterated function system is similar to that of the predicted wind speed series

  1. Prediction of wind power potential by wind speed probability distribution in a hilly terrain near Bh

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahmed, Siraj; Diwakar, Nilesh

    2010-09-15

    Daily wind speed data in metre per second and its direction of flow in degree were recorded from of the India Meteorological Department for a site near the Bhopal Airport for the period of eleven years. The influence of roughness of the terrain, obstacles and topography in terms of contour for the area were also taken into consideration. These data were analysed using WAsP programme and regional wind climate of the area was determined. It is seen from the analysis of the wind speed data and keeping the topographical variation of terrain, exploitable wind speed is experienced at 50 m.

  2. Application of a ray theory model to the prediction of noise emissions from isolated wind turbines and wind parks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prospathopoulos, John M.; Voutsinas, Spyros G.

    2006-01-01

    Various propagation models have been developed to estimate the level of noise near residential areas. Predictions and measurements have proven that proper modelling of the propagation medium is of particular importance. In the present work, calculations are performed using a ray theory methodology. The ray trajectory and transport equations are derived from the linear acoustics equations for a moving medium in three dimensions. Ground and atmospheric absorption, wave refraction and diffraction and atmospheric turbulence are taken into account by introducing appropriate coefficients in the equations. In the case of a wind turbine (W/T) it is assumed that noise is produced by a point source located at the rotor centre. Given the sound power spectrum, the noise spectrum at the receiver is obtained by solving the axisymmetric propagation problem. The procedure consists of (a) finding the eigenrays, (b) calculating the energy losses along the eigenrays and (c) synthesizing the sound pressure level (SPL) by superposing the contributions of the eigenrays. In the case of a wind park the total SPL is calculated by superposing the contributions of all W/Ts. Application is made to five cases of isolated W/Ts in terrains of varying complexity. In flat or even smooth terrain the predictions agree well with the measurements. In complex terrain the predictions can be considered satisfactory, taking into account the assumption of constant wind velocity profile. Application to a wind park shows clearly the influence of the terrain on the wind velocity and consequently on the SPL. (Author)

  3. On wake modeling, wind-farm gradients, and AEP predictions at the Anholt wind farm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Peña

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available We investigate wake effects at the Anholt offshore wind farm in Denmark, which is a farm experiencing strong horizontal wind-speed gradients because of its size and proximity to land. Mesoscale model simulations are used to study the horizontal wind-speed gradients over the wind farm. From analysis of the mesoscale simulations and supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA, we show that for westerly flow in particular, there is a clear horizontal wind-speed gradient over the wind farm. We also use the mesoscale simulations to derive the undisturbed inflow conditions that are coupled with three commonly used wake models: two engineering approaches (the Park and G. C. Larsen models and a linearized Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes approach (Fuga. The effect of the horizontal wind-speed gradient on annual energy production estimates is not found to be critical compared to estimates from both the average undisturbed wind climate of all turbines' positions and the undisturbed wind climate of a position in the middle of the wind farm. However, annual energy production estimates can largely differ when using wind climates at positions that are strongly influenced by the horizontal wind-speed gradient. When looking at westerly flow wake cases, where the impact of the horizontal wind-speed gradient on the power of the undisturbed turbines is largest, the wake models agree with the SCADA fairly well; when looking at a southerly flow case, where the wake losses are highest, the wake models tend to underestimate the wake loss. With the mesoscale-wake model setup, we are also able to estimate the capacity factor of the wind farm rather well when compared to that derived from the SCADA. Finally, we estimate the uncertainty of the wake models by bootstrapping the SCADA. The models tend to underestimate the wake losses (the median relative model error is 8.75 % and the engineering wake models are as uncertain as Fuga. These results are specific for

  4. CWEX: Crop/wind-energy experiment: Observations of surface-layer, boundary-layer and mesoscale interactions with a wind farm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Large wind turbines perturb mean and turbulent wind characteristics, which modify fluxes between the vegetated surface and the lower boundary layer. While simulations have suggested that wind farms could create significant changes in surface fluxes of heat, momentum, moisture, and CO2 over hundreds ...

  5. Crop/Wind-energy Experiment (CWEX): Observations of surface-layer, boundary-layer and mesoscale interactions with a wind farm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perturbations of mean and turbulent wind characteristics by large wind turbines modify fluxes between the vegetated surface and the lower boundary layer. While simulations have suggested that wind farms could significantly change surface fluxes of heat, momentum, moisture, and CO2 over hundreds of s...

  6. Wind erosion in semiarid landscapes: Predictive models and remote sensing methods for the influence of vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musick, H. Brad

    1993-01-01

    The objectives of this research are: to develop and test predictive relations for the quantitative influence of vegetation canopy structure on wind erosion of semiarid rangeland soils, and to develop remote sensing methods for measuring the canopy structural parameters that determine sheltering against wind erosion. The influence of canopy structure on wind erosion will be investigated by means of wind-tunnel and field experiments using structural variables identified by the wind-tunnel and field experiments using model roughness elements to simulate plant canopies. The canopy structural variables identified by the wind-tunnel and field experiments as important in determining vegetative sheltering against wind erosion will then be measured at a number of naturally vegetated field sites and compared with estimates of these variables derived from analysis of remotely sensed data.

  7. Observations of C-Band Brightness Temperature and Ocean Surface Wind Speed and Rain Rate in Hurricanes Earl And Karl (2010)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Timothy; James, Mark; Roberts, Brent J.; Biswax, Sayak; Uhlhorn, Eric; Black, Peter; Linwood Jones, W.; Johnson, Jimmy; Farrar, Spencer; Sahawneh, Saleem

    2012-01-01

    Ocean surface emission is affected by: a) Sea surface temperature. b) Wind speed (foam fraction). c) Salinity After production of calibrated Tb fields, geophysical fields wind speed and rain rate (or column) are retrieved. HIRAD utilizes NASA Instrument Incubator Technology: a) Provides unique observations of sea surface wind, temp and rain b) Advances understanding & prediction of hurricane intensity c) Expands Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer capabilities d) Uses synthetic thinned array and RFI mitigation technology of Lightweight Rain Radiometer (NASA Instrument Incubator) Passive Microwave C-Band Radiometer with Freq: 4, 5, 6 & 6.6 GHz: a) Version 1: H-pol for ocean wind speed, b) Version 2: dual ]pol for ocean wind vectors. Performance Characteristics: a) Earth Incidence angle: 0deg - 60deg, b) Spatial Resolution: 2-5 km, c) Swath: approx.70 km for 20 km altitude. Observational Goals: WS 10 - >85 m/s RR 5 - > 100 mm/hr.

  8. Estimation of uncertainty of wind energy predictions with application to weather routing and wind power generation

    CERN Document Server

    Zastrau, David

    2017-01-01

    Wind drives in combination with weather routing can lower the fuel consumption of cargo ships significantly. For this reason, the author describes a mathematical method based on quantile regression for a probabilistic estimate of the wind propulsion force on a ship route.

  9. Near Real Time MISR Wind Observations for Numerical Weather Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, K. J.; Protack, S.; Rheingans, B. E.; Hansen, E. G.; Jovanovic, V. M.; Baker, N.; Liu, J.; Val, S.

    2014-12-01

    The Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) project, in association with the NASA Langley Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC), has this year adapted its original production software to generate near-real time (NRT) cloud-motion winds as well as radiance imagery from all nine MISR cameras. These products are made publicly available at the ASDC with a latency of less than 3 hours. Launched aboard the sun-synchronous Terra platform in 1999, the MISR instrument continues to acquire near-global, 275 m resolution, multi-angle imagery. During a single 7 minute overpass of any given area, MISR retrieves the stereoscopic height and horizontal motion of clouds from the multi-angle data, yielding meso-scale near-instantaneous wind vectors. The ongoing 15-year record of MISR height-resolved winds at 17.6 km resolution has been validated against independent data sources. Low-level winds dominate the sampling, and agree to within ±3 ms-1 of collocated GOES and other observations. Low-level wind observations are of particular interest to weather forecasting, where there is a dearth of observations suitable for assimilation, in part due to reliability concerns associated with winds whose heights are assigned by the infrared brightness temperature technique. MISR cloud heights, on the other hand, are generated from stereophotogrammetric pattern matching of visible radiances. MISR winds also address data gaps in the latitude bands between geostationary satellite coverage and polar orbiting instruments that obtain winds from multiple overpasses (e.g. MODIS). Observational impact studies conducted by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and by the German Weather Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) have both demonstrated forecast improvements when assimilating MISR winds. An impact assessment using the GEOS-5 system is currently in progress. To benefit air quality forecasts, the MISR project is currently investigating the feasibility of generating near-real time aerosol products.

  10. Development and Application of Advanced Weather Prediction Technologies for the Wind Energy Industry (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahoney, W. P.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.; Myers, W.; Johnson, D.

    2010-12-01

    Wind energy decision makers are required to make critical judgments on a daily basis with regard to energy generation, distribution, demand, storage, and integration. Accurate knowledge of the present and future state of the atmosphere is vital in making these decisions. As wind energy portfolios expand, this forecast problem is taking on new urgency because wind forecast inaccuracies frequently lead to substantial economic losses and constrain the national expansion of renewable energy. Improved weather prediction and precise spatial analysis of small-scale weather events are crucial for renewable energy management. In early 2009, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) began a collaborative project with Xcel Energy Services, Inc. to perform research and develop technologies to improve Xcel Energy's ability to increase the amount of wind energy in their generation portfolio. The agreement and scope of work was designed to provide highly detailed, localized wind energy forecasts to enable Xcel Energy to more efficiently integrate electricity generated from wind into the power grid. The wind prediction technologies are designed to help Xcel Energy operators make critical decisions about powering down traditional coal and natural gas-powered plants when sufficient wind energy is predicted. The wind prediction technologies have been designed to cover Xcel Energy wind resources spanning a region from Wisconsin to New Mexico. The goal of the project is not only to improve Xcel Energy’s wind energy prediction capabilities, but also to make technological advancements in wind and wind energy prediction, expand our knowledge of boundary layer meteorology, and share the results across the renewable energy industry. To generate wind energy forecasts, NCAR is incorporating observations of current atmospheric conditions from a variety of sources including satellites, aircraft, weather radars, ground-based weather stations, wind profilers, and even wind sensors on

  11. An adaptive short-term prediction scheme for wind energy storage management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blonbou, Ruddy; Monjoly, Stephanie; Dorville, Jean-Francois

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → We develop a real time algorithm for grid-connected wind energy storage management. → The method aims to guarantee, with ±5% error margin, the power sent to the grid. → Dynamic scheduling of energy storage is based on short-term energy prediction. → Accurate predictions reduce the need in storage capacity. -- Abstract: Efficient forecasting scheme that includes some information on the likelihood of the forecast and based on a better knowledge of the wind variations characteristics along with their influence on power output variation is of key importance for the optimal integration of wind energy in island's power system. In the Guadeloupean archipelago (French West-Indies), with a total wind power capacity of 25 MW; wind energy can represent up to 5% of the instantaneous electricity production. At this level, wind energy contribution can be equivalent to the current network primary control reserve, which causes balancing difficult. The share of wind energy is due to grow even further since the objective is set to reach 118 MW by 2020. It is an absolute evidence for the network operator that due to security concerns of the electrical grid, the share of wind generation should not increase unless solutions are found to solve the prediction problem. The University of French West-Indies and Guyana has developed a short-term wind energy prediction scheme that uses artificial neural networks and adaptive learning procedures based on Bayesian approach and Gaussian approximation. This paper reports the results of the evaluation of the proposed approach; the improvement with respect to the simple persistent prediction model was globally good. A discussion on how such a tool combined with energy storage capacity could help to smooth the wind power variation and improve the wind energy penetration rate into island utility network is also proposed.

  12. Reduction of wind power induced reserve requirements by advanced shortest-term forecasts and prediction intervals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobschinski, Jan; Wessel, Arne; Lange, Bernhard; Bremen, Lueder von [Fraunhofer Institut fuer Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (IWES), Kassel (Germany)

    2009-07-01

    In electricity systems with large penetration of wind power, the limited predictability of the wind power generation leads to an increase in reserve and balancing requirements. At first the present study concentrates on the capability of dynamic day-ahead prediction intervals to reduce the wind power induced reserve and balancing requirements. Alternatively the reduction of large forecast errors of the German wind power generation by using advanced shortest-term predictions has been evaluated in a second approach. With focus on the allocation of minute reserve power the aim is to estimate the maximal remaining uncertainty after trading activities on the intraday market. Finally both approaches were used in a case study concerning the reserve requirements induced by the total German wind power expansion in 2007. (orig.)

  13. Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Using EEMD-LSSVM Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aiqing Kang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Hybrid Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD and Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM is proposed to improve short-term wind speed forecasting precision. The EEMD is firstly utilized to decompose the original wind speed time series into a set of subseries. Then the LSSVM models are established to forecast these subseries. Partial autocorrelation function is adopted to analyze the inner relationships between the historical wind speed series in order to determine input variables of LSSVM models for prediction of every subseries. Finally, the superposition principle is employed to sum the predicted values of every subseries as the final wind speed prediction. The performance of hybrid model is evaluated based on six metrics. Compared with LSSVM, Back Propagation Neural Networks (BP, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA, combination of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD with LSSVM, and hybrid EEMD with ARIMA models, the wind speed forecasting results show that the proposed hybrid model outperforms these models in terms of six metrics. Furthermore, the scatter diagrams of predicted versus actual wind speed and histograms of prediction errors are presented to verify the superiority of the hybrid model in short-term wind speed prediction.

  14. A history of wind erosion prediction models in the United States Department of Agriculture prior to the Wind Erosion Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatarko, John; Sporcic, Michael A.; Skidmore, Edward L.

    2013-09-01

    The Great Plains experienced an influx of settlers in the late 1850s-1900. Periodic drought was hard on both settlers and the soil and caused severe wind erosion. The period known as the Dirty Thirties, 1931-1939, produced many severe windstorms, and the resulting dusty sky over Washington, DC helped Hugh Hammond Bennett gain political support for the Soil Conservation Act of 1937 that started the USDA Soil Conservation Service (SCS). Austin W. Zingg and William S. Chepil began wind erosion studies at a USDA laboratory at Kansas State University in 1947. Neil P. Woodruff and Francis H. Siddoway published the first widely used model for wind erosion in 1965, called the Wind Erosion Equation (WEQ). The WEQ was solved using a series of charts and lookup tables. Subsequent improvements to WEQ included monthly magnitudes of the total wind, a computer version of WEQ programmed in FORTRAN, small-grain equivalents for range grasses, tillage systems, effects of residue management, crop row direction, cloddiness, monthly climate factors, and the weather. The SCS and the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) produced several computer versions of WEQ with the goal of standardizing and simplifying it for field personnel including a standalone version of WEQ was developed in the late 1990s using Microsoft Excel. Although WEQ was a great advancement to the science of prediction and control of wind erosion on cropland, it had many limitations that prevented its use on many lands throughout the United States and the world. In response to these limitations, the USDA developed a process-based model know as the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS). The USDA Agricultural Research Service has taken the lead in developing science and technology for wind erosion prediction.

  15. High-altitude wind prediction and measurement technology assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-30

    The principles and operational characteristics of balloon and radar-based techniques for measuring upper air winds in support of launches and recoveries are presented. Though either a balloon or radar system could serve as a standalone system, the sa...

  16. The effects of tropical wind data on the prediction of ultralong waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, W. E.

    1981-01-01

    The influence of tropical wind data on the prediction of planetary waves were studied. Two assimilation experiments were performed, one with and one without FGGE tropical winds. The planetary wave error was then analyzed in 72 h forecasts from the initial conditions provided by the two assimilations.

  17. Towards predictive models for transitionally rough surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abderrahaman-Elena, Nabil; Garcia-Mayoral, Ricardo

    2017-11-01

    We analyze and model the previously presented decomposition for flow variables in DNS of turbulence over transitionally rough surfaces. The flow is decomposed into two contributions: one produced by the overlying turbulence, which has no footprint of the surface texture, and one induced by the roughness, which is essentially the time-averaged flow around the surface obstacles, but modulated in amplitude by the first component. The roughness-induced component closely resembles the laminar steady flow around the roughness elements at the same non-dimensional roughness size. For small - yet transitionally rough - textures, the roughness-free component is essentially the same as over a smooth wall. Based on these findings, we propose predictive models for the onset of the transitionally rough regime. Project supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC).

  18. Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft-and Satellite-based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on Wind Analyses and Numerical Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, TImothy; Atlas, Robert; Black, Peter; Chen, Shuyi; Jones, Linwood; Ruf, Chris; Uhlhorn, Eric; Gamache, John; Amarin, Ruba; El-Nimri, Salem; hide

    2010-01-01

    The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor for hurricane observations that is currently under development by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida and the University of Michigan. HIRAD is being designed to enhance the realtime airborne ocean surface winds observation capabilities of NOAA and USAF Weather Squadron hurricane hunter aircraft currently using the operational airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR). Unlike SFMR, which measures wind speed and rain rate along the ground track directly beneath the aircraft, HIRAD will provide images of the surface wind and rain field over a wide swath (approx. 3 x the aircraft altitude). The present paper describes a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in which measurements from the new instrument as well as those from existing instruments (air, surface, and space-based) are simulated from the output of a detailed numerical model, and those results are used to construct H*Wind analyses, a product of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. Evaluations will be presented on the impact of the HIRAD instrument on H*Wind analyses, both in terms of adding it to the full suite of current measurements, as well as using it to replace instrument(s) that may not be functioning at the future time the HIRAD instrument is implemented. Also shown will be preliminary results of numerical weather prediction OSSEs in which the impact of the addition of HIRAD observations to the initial state on numerical forecasts of the hurricane intensity and structure is assessed.

  19. Soil erosion rates from mixed soil and gravel surfaces in a wind tunnel: A preliminary report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ligotke, M.W.

    1988-12-01

    Tests of wind erosion were performed in a controlled-environment wind tunnel to support the development of natural-material protective barriers for long-term isolation of radioactive waste. Barrier performance standards currently being developed for internal and external barrier performance are expected to mandate a surface layer that is resistant to wind erosion. The purpose of this study was to initiate a series of tests to determine suitable soil and gravel mixtures for such a barrier and to test worst-case surface layer conditions under the influence of high wind speeds. Six mixed soil and gravel surfaces were prepared, weathered to represent natural wind-blown desert areas, and subjected to controlled wind erosion forces in a wind tunnel. The applied erosive forces, including surface shear forces, were characterized to provide a means of relating wind tunnel results with actual field conditions. Soil particle losses from the surfaces caused by suspension, saltation, and surface creep were monitored by aerosol sample probes and mass balance measurements. 23 refs., 22 figs., 3 tabs

  20. Stochastic dynamic stiffness of surface footing for offshore wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vahdatirad, Mohammadjavad; Andersen, Lars Vabbersgaard; Ibsen, Lars Bo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights •This study concerns the stochastic dynamic stiffness of foundations for large offshore wind turbines. •A simple model of wind turbine structure with equivalent coupled springs at the base is utilized. •The level of uncertainties is quantified through a sensitivity analysis. •Estimation...

  1. A new wind power prediction method based on chaotic theory and Bernstein Neural Network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Cong; Zhang, Hongli; Fan, Wenhui; Fan, Xiaochao

    2016-01-01

    The accuracy of wind power prediction is important for assessing the security and economy of the system operation when wind power connects to the grids. However, multiple factors cause a long delay and large errors in wind power prediction. Hence, efficient wind power forecasting approaches are still required for practical applications. In this paper, a new wind power forecasting method based on Chaos Theory and Bernstein Neural Network (BNN) is proposed. Firstly, the largest Lyapunov exponent as a judgment for wind power system's chaotic behavior is made. Secondly, Phase Space Reconstruction (PSR) is used to reconstruct the wind power series' phase space. Thirdly, the prediction model is constructed using the Bernstein polynomial and neural network. Finally, the weights and thresholds of the model are optimized by Primal Dual State Transition Algorithm (PDSTA). The practical hourly data of wind power generation in Xinjiang is used to test this forecaster. The proposed forecaster is compared with several current prominent research findings. Analytical results indicate that the forecasting error of PDSTA + BNN is 3.893% for 24 look-ahead hours, and has lower errors obtained compared with the other forecast methods discussed in this paper. The results of all cases studying confirm the validity of the new forecast method. - Highlights: • Lyapunov exponent is used to verify chaotic behavior of wind power series. • Phase Space Reconstruction is used to reconstruct chaotic wind power series. • A new Bernstein Neural Network to predict wind power series is proposed. • Primal dual state transition algorithm is chosen as the training strategy of BNN.

  2. Using data-driven approach for wind power prediction: A comparative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taslimi Renani, Ehsan; Elias, Mohamad Fathi Mohamad; Rahim, Nasrudin Abd.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Double exponential smoothing is the most accurate model in wind speed prediction. • A two-stage feature selection method is proposed to select most important inputs. • Direct prediction illustrates better accuracy than indirect prediction. • Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system outperforms data mining algorithms. • Random forest performs the worst compared to other data mining algorithm. - Abstract: Although wind energy is intermittent and stochastic in nature, it is increasingly important in the power generation due to its sustainability and pollution-free. Increased utilization of wind energy sources calls for more robust and efficient prediction models to mitigate uncertainties associated with wind power. This research compares two different approaches in wind power forecasting which are indirect and direct prediction methods. In indirect method, several times series are applied to forecast the wind speed, whereas the logistic function with five parameters is then used to forecast the wind power. In this study, backtracking search algorithm with novel crossover and mutation operators is employed to find the best parameters of five-parameter logistic function. A new feature selection technique, combining the mutual information and neural network is proposed in this paper to extract the most informative features with a maximum relevancy and minimum redundancy. From the comparative study, the results demonstrate that, in the direct prediction approach where the historical weather data are used to predict the wind power generation directly, adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system outperforms five data mining algorithms namely, random forest, M5Rules, k-nearest neighbor, support vector machine and multilayer perceptron. Moreover, it is also found that the mean absolute percentage error of the direct prediction method using adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system is 1.47% which is approximately less than half of the error obtained with the

  3. Improving Wind Predictions in the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer through Parameter Estimation in a Single-Column Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jared A.; Hacker, Joshua P.; Delle Monache, Luca; Kosović, Branko; Clifton, Andrew; Vandenberghe, Francois; Rodrigo, Javier Sanz

    2016-12-14

    A current barrier to greater deployment of offshore wind turbines is the poor quality of numerical weather prediction model wind and turbulence forecasts over open ocean. The bulk of development for atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) parameterization schemes has focused on land, partly due to a scarcity of observations over ocean. The 100-m FINO1 tower in the North Sea is one of the few sources worldwide of atmospheric profile observations from the sea surface to turbine hub height. These observations are crucial to developing a better understanding and modeling of physical processes in the marine ABL. In this study, we use the WRF single column model (SCM), coupled with an ensemble Kalman filter from the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), to create 100-member ensembles at the FINO1 location. The goal of this study is to determine the extent to which model parameter estimation can improve offshore wind forecasts.

  4. On wake modeling, wind-farm gradients and AEP predictions at the Anholt wind farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pena Diaz, Alfredo; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Ott, Søren

    2017-01-01

    of the mesoscale simulations and supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA), we show that for westerly flow in particular, there is a clear horizontal wind-speed gradient over the wind farm. We also use the mesoscale simulations to derive the undisturbed inflow conditions that are coupled with three commonly....... When looking at westerly flow wake cases, where the impact of the horizontal wind-speed gradient on the power of the undisturbed turbines is largest, the wake models agree with the SCADA fairly well; when looking at a southerly flow case, where the wake losses are highest, the wake models tend...... to underestimate the wake loss. With the mesoscale-wake model setup, we are also able to estimate the capacity factor of the wind farm rather well when compared to that derived from the SCADA. Finally, we estimate the uncertainty of the wake models by bootstrapping the SCADA. The models tend to underestimate...

  5. Forced synchronization of large-scale circulation to increase predictability of surface states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Mao-Lin; Keenlyside, Noel; Selten, Frank; Wiegerinck, Wim; Duane, Gregory

    2016-04-01

    Numerical models are key tools in the projection of the future climate change. The lack of perfect initial condition and perfect knowledge of the laws of physics, as well as inherent chaotic behavior limit predictions. Conceptually, the atmospheric variables can be decomposed into a predictable component (signal) and an unpredictable component (noise). In ensemble prediction the anomaly of ensemble mean is regarded as the signal and the ensemble spread the noise. Naturally the prediction skill will be higher if the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is larger in the initial conditions. We run two ensemble experiments in order to explore a way to reduce the SNR of surface winds and temperature. One ensemble experiment is AGCM with prescribing sea surface temperature (SST); the other is AGCM with both prescribing SST and nudging the high-level temperature and winds to ERA-Interim. Each ensemble has 30 members. Larger SNR is expected and found over the tropical ocean in the first experiment because the tropical circulation is associated with the convection and the associated surface wind convergence as these are to a large extent driven by the SST. However, small SNR is found over high latitude ocean and land surface due to the chaotic and non-synchronized atmosphere states. In the second experiment the higher level temperature and winds are forced to be synchronized (nudged to reanalysis) and hence a larger SNR of surface winds and temperature is expected. Furthermore, different nudging coefficients are also tested in order to understand the limitation of both synchronization of large-scale circulation and the surface states. These experiments will be useful for the developing strategies to synchronize the 3-D states of atmospheric models that can be later used to build a super model.

  6. Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using a Hybrid Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

    2017-05-01

    This paper aims to develop and apply a hybrid model of two data analytical methods, multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), for ultra-short-term wind power prediction (WPP), for example taking, Northeast China electricity demand. The data was obtained from the historical records of wind power from an offshore region, and from a wind farm of the wind power plant in the areas. The WPP achieved in two stages: first, the ratios of wind power were forecasted using the proposed hybrid method, and then the transformation of these ratios of wind power to obtain forecasted values. The hybrid model combines the persistence methods, MLR and LS. The proposed method included two prediction types, multi-point prediction and single-point prediction. WPP is tested by applying different models such as autoregressive moving average (ARMA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN). By comparing results of the above models, the validity of the proposed hybrid model is confirmed in terms of error and correlation coefficient. Comparison of results confirmed that the proposed method works effectively. Additional, forecasting errors were also computed and compared, to improve understanding of how to depict highly variable WPP and the correlations between actual and predicted wind power.

  7. QuikSCAT and SSM/I ocean surface winds for wind energy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasager, Charlotte Bay; Astrup, Poul; Nielsen, Per

    2007-01-01

    -European mid-latitudes and in the Atlantic trade belt zone are compared. Distinct differences are identified and these agree well with independent data from meteorological masts in the two regions. Seven years of twice daily observations from QuikSCAT are used for the offshore wind resource assessment. Wind...

  8. Addressing Spatial Variability of Surface-Layer Wind with Long-Range WindScanners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg, Jacob; Vasiljevic, Nikola; Kelly, Mark C.

    2015-01-01

    of the WindScanner data is high, although the fidelity of the estimated vertical velocity component is significantly limited by the elevation angles of the scanner heads. The system of long-range WindScanners presented in this paper is close to being fully operational, with the pilot study herein serving...

  9. Distributed Model Predictive Control for Active Power Control of Wind Farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the active power control of a wind farm using the Distributed Model Predictive Controller (D- MPC) via dual decomposition. Different from the conventional centralized wind farm control, multiple objectives such as power reference tracking performance and wind turbine load can...... be considered to achieve a trade-off between them. Additionally, D- MPC is based on communication among the subsystems. Through the interaction among the neighboring subsystems, the global optimization could be achieved, which significantly reduces the computation burden. It is suitable for the modern large......-scale wind farm control....

  10. Standardizing the performance evaluation of short-term wind prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, G.

    2005-01-01

    Short-term wind power prediction is a primary requirement for efficient large-scale integration of wind generation in power systems and electricity markets. The choice of an appropriate prediction model among the numerous available models is not trivial, and has to be based on an objective...... evaluation of model performance. This paper proposes a standardized protocol for the evaluation of short-term wind-poser preciction systems. A number of reference prediction models are also described, and their use for performance comparison is analysed. The use of the protocol is demonstrated using results...... from both on-shore and off-shore wind forms. The work was developed in the frame of the Anemos project (EU R&D project) where the protocol has been used to evaluate more than 10 prediction systems....

  11. Development of a wind farm noise propagation prediction model - project progress to date

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, P.; Bullmore, A.; Bass, J.; Sloth, E.

    1998-01-01

    This paper describes a twelve month measurement campaign which is part of a European project (CEC Project JOR3-CT95-0051) with the aim to substantially reduce the uncertainties involved in predicting environmentally radiated noise levels from wind farms (1). This will be achieved by comparing noise levels measure at varying distances from single and multiple sources over differing complexities of terrain with those predicted using a number of currently adopted sound propagation models. Specific objectives within the project are to: establish the important parameters controlling the propagation of wind farm noise to the far field; develop a planning tool for predicting wind farm noise emission levels under practically encountered conditions; place confidence limits on the upper and lower bounds of the noise levels predicted, thus enabling developers to quantify the risk whether noise emission from wind farms will cause nuisance to nearby residents. (Author)

  12. A preliminary evaluation of short-term thunderstorm forecasting using surface winds at Kennedy Space Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Andrew I.; Holle, Ronald L.; Lopez, Raul E.; Nicholson, James R.

    1990-01-01

    In 1987 NASA expanded its surface wind network onto the mainland west of Kennedy Space Center, increasing the network area from nearly 800 sq km to over 1600 sq km. Here, the results of this expansion are reported using three years of wind and lightning information collected during June, July, August, and September of 1987, 1988, and 1989. The divergence-lightning relationships and the importance of wind direction are addressed, and the verification is summarized.

  13. Wind Doesn't Just Stop at the Earth's Surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifton, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Wind turbines are increasingly being installed in complex terrain such as the pre-Alpine regions of Germany, Austria, and other European Alpine regions, mountainous regions across USA and Canada, and many other parts of the world. In these areas, the system of the atmosphere, terrain, geology, people, and power system has is deeply interconnected but couplings are not completely known. This leads to challenging development conditions, increased cost of energy compared to flat terrain, and sometimes to tensions between different stakeholders. In this presentation, an overview of the wind energy system will be presented, and the challenges of developing wind energy in complex terrain will be highlighted. Results from several recent measurement campaigns and associated modelling carried out by members of WindForS will be used as examples. WindForS is a southern Germany-based research consortium of more than 20 groups at higher education and research institutes, with strong links to government and industry. Finally, the new WindForS wind energy research facility in complex terrain will be introduced. The new test site will be located in the hilly, forested terrain of the Swabian Alps between Stuttgart and Germany, and will consist of two wind turbines with four meteorological towers. The test site will be used for accompanying ecological research and will also have mobile eddy covariance measurement stations as well as bird and bat monitoring systems. Seismic and noise monitoring systems are also planned. The large number of auxiliary measurements at this facility are intended to allow the complete atmosphere-wind turbine-environment-people system to be characterized. A major focus of the presentation will be on opportunities for interdisciplinary collaboration between the atmospheric science and geosciences communities and other stakeholders.

  14. Stochastic Prediction of Wind Generating Resources Using the Enhanced Ensemble Model for Jeju Island’s Wind Farms in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deockho Kim

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Due to the intermittency of wind power generation, it is very hard to manage its system operation and planning. In order to incorporate higher wind power penetrations into power systems that maintain secure and economic power system operation, an accurate and efficient estimation of wind power outputs is needed. In this paper, we propose the stochastic prediction of wind generating resources using an enhanced ensemble model for Jeju Island’s wind farms in South Korea. When selecting the potential sites of wind farms, wind speed data at points of interest are not always available. We apply the Kriging method, which is one of spatial interpolation, to estimate wind speed at potential sites. We also consider a wind profile power law to correct wind speed along the turbine height and terrain characteristics. After that, we used estimated wind speed data to calculate wind power output and select the best wind farm sites using a Weibull distribution. Probability density function (PDF or cumulative density function (CDF is used to estimate the probability of wind speed. The wind speed data is classified along the manufacturer’s power curve data. Therefore, the probability of wind speed is also given in accordance with classified values. The average wind power output is estimated in the form of a confidence interval. The empirical data of meteorological towers from Jeju Island in Korea is used to interpolate the wind speed data spatially at potential sites. Finally, we propose the best wind farm site among the four potential wind farm sites.

  15. Wind Power Ramp Events Prediction with Hybrid Machine Learning Regression Techniques and Reanalysis Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Cornejo-Bueno

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Wind Power Ramp Events (WPREs are large fluctuations of wind power in a short time interval, which lead to strong, undesirable variations in the electric power produced by a wind farm. Its accurate prediction is important in the effort of efficiently integrating wind energy in the electric system, without affecting considerably its stability, robustness and resilience. In this paper, we tackle the problem of predicting WPREs by applying Machine Learning (ML regression techniques. Our approach consists of using variables from atmospheric reanalysis data as predictive inputs for the learning machine, which opens the possibility of hybridizing numerical-physical weather models with ML techniques for WPREs prediction in real systems. Specifically, we have explored the feasibility of a number of state-of-the-art ML regression techniques, such as support vector regression, artificial neural networks (multi-layer perceptrons and extreme learning machines and Gaussian processes to solve the problem. Furthermore, the ERA-Interim reanalysis from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is the one used in this paper because of its accuracy and high resolution (in both spatial and temporal domains. Aiming at validating the feasibility of our predicting approach, we have carried out an extensive experimental work using real data from three wind farms in Spain, discussing the performance of the different ML regression tested in this wind power ramp event prediction problem.

  16. Prediction of reservoir compaction and surface subsidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Waal, J.A.; Smits, R.M.M.

    1988-06-01

    A new loading-rate-dependent compaction model for unconsolidated clastic reservoirs is presented that considerably improves the accuracy of predicting reservoir rock compaction and surface subsidence resulting from pressure depletion in oil and gas fields. The model has been developed on the basis of extensive laboratory studies and can be derived from a theory relating compaction to time-dependent intergranular friction. The procedure for calculating reservoir compaction from laboratory measurements with the new model is outlined. Both field and laboratory compaction behaviors appear to be described by one single normalized, nonlinear compaction curve. With the new model, the large discrepancies usually observed between predictions based on linear compaction models and actual (nonlinear) field behavior can be explained.

  17. Enhanced Voltage Control of VSC-HVDC Connected Offshore Wind Farms Based on Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Yifei; Gao, Houlei; Wu, Qiuwei

    2018-01-01

    This paper proposes an enhanced voltage control strategy (EVCS) based on model predictive control (MPC) for voltage source converter based high voltage direct current (VSCHVDC) connected offshore wind farms (OWFs). In the proposed MPC based EVCS, all wind turbine generators (WTGs) as well...... as the wind farm side VSC are optimally coordinated to keep voltages within the feasible range and reduce system power losses. Considering the high ratio of the OWF collector system, the effects of active power outputs of WTGs on voltage control are also taken into consideration. The predictive model of VSC...

  18. A hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pousinho, H.M.I.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Catalao, J.P.S.

    2011-01-01

    The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Wind power prediction plays a key role in tackling these challenges. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach, combining particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal. Significant improvements regarding forecasting accuracy are attainable using the proposed approach, in comparison with the results obtained with five other approaches.

  19. A hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pousinho, H.M.I. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Mendes, V.M.F. [Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, R. Conselheiro Emidio Navarro, 1950-062 Lisbon (Portugal); Catalao, J.P.S. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Center for Innovation in Electrical and Energy Engineering, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal)

    2011-01-15

    The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Wind power prediction plays a key role in tackling these challenges. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach, combining particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal. Significant improvements regarding forecasting accuracy are attainable using the proposed approach, in comparison with the results obtained with five other approaches. (author)

  20. Importance of Dynamic Inflow Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Knudsen, Torben; Overgaard, Anders

    2015-01-01

    The efficiency of including dynamic inflow in the model based design of wind turbine controller has been discussed for many years in the wind energy community with out getting to a safe conclusion. This paper delivers a good argument in favor of including dynamic inflow. The main contributions...... pronounces. For this the well accepted NREL 5MW reference turbine simulated with FAST is used. The main result is a reduction in tower fatigue load at 22% while power error, rotor speed error, generator torque and pitch rate is improved from 2 to 33%....

  1. Measurement of the sea surface wind speed and direction by an airborne microwave radar altimeter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nekrassov, A. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

    2001-07-01

    A pilot needs operational information about wind over sea as well as wave height to provide safety of a hydroplane landing on water. Near-surface wind speed and direction can be obtained with an airborne microwave scatterometer, radar designed for measuring the scatter characteristics of a surface. Mostly narrow-beam antennas are applied for such wind measurement. Unfortunately, a microwave narrow-beam antenna has considerable size that hampers its placing on flying apparatus. In this connection, a possibility to apply a conventional airborne radar altimeter as a scatterometer with a nadir-looking wide-beam antenna in conjunction with Doppler filtering for recovering the wind vector over sea is discussed, and measuring algorithms of sea surface wind speed and direction are proposed. The obtained results can be used for creation of an airborne radar system for operational measurement of the sea roughness characteristics and for safe landing of a hydroplane on water. (orig.)

  2. Wind fields of storms from surface isobars for wave hindcasting

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Varkey, M.J.; Vaithiyanathan, R.; Santanam, K.

    Marine operations of various types are critically linked to mean and extreme wave statistics. In the Indian seas extreme wave conditions are caused by cyclones and steady strong monsoon winds. Wave data from cyclone areas are not directly available...

  3. Estimation of Separation Buffers for Wind-Prediction Error in an Airborne Separation Assistance System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Consiglio, Maria C.; Hoadley, Sherwood T.; Allen, B. Danette

    2009-01-01

    Wind prediction errors are known to affect the performance of automated air traffic management tools that rely on aircraft trajectory predictions. In particular, automated separation assurance tools, planned as part of the NextGen concept of operations, must be designed to account and compensate for the impact of wind prediction errors and other system uncertainties. In this paper we describe a high fidelity batch simulation study designed to estimate the separation distance required to compensate for the effects of wind-prediction errors throughout increasing traffic density on an airborne separation assistance system. These experimental runs are part of the Safety Performance of Airborne Separation experiment suite that examines the safety implications of prediction errors and system uncertainties on airborne separation assurance systems. In this experiment, wind-prediction errors were varied between zero and forty knots while traffic density was increased several times current traffic levels. In order to accurately measure the full unmitigated impact of wind-prediction errors, no uncertainty buffers were added to the separation minima. The goal of the study was to measure the impact of wind-prediction errors in order to estimate the additional separation buffers necessary to preserve separation and to provide a baseline for future analyses. Buffer estimations from this study will be used and verified in upcoming safety evaluation experiments under similar simulation conditions. Results suggest that the strategic airborne separation functions exercised in this experiment can sustain wind prediction errors up to 40kts at current day air traffic density with no additional separation distance buffer and at eight times the current day with no more than a 60% increase in separation distance buffer.

  4. Initialization of high resolution surface wind simulations using NWS gridded data

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Forthofer; K. Shannon; Bret Butler

    2010-01-01

    WindNinja is a standalone computer model designed to provide the user with simulations of surface wind flow. It is deterministic and steady state. It is currently being modified to allow the user to initialize the flow calculation using National Digital Forecast Database. It essentially allows the user to downscale the coarse scale simulations from meso-scale models to...

  5. Objective estimation of tropical cyclone innercore surface wind structure using infrared satellite images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Changjiang; Dai, Lijie; Ma, Leiming; Qian, Jinfang; Yang, Bo

    2017-10-01

    An objective technique is presented for estimating tropical cyclone (TC) innercore two-dimensional (2-D) surface wind field structure using infrared satellite imagery and machine learning. For a TC with eye, the eye contour is first segmented by a geodesic active contour model, based on which the eye circumference is obtained as the TC eye size. A mathematical model is then established between the eye size and the radius of maximum wind obtained from the past official TC report to derive the 2-D surface wind field within the TC eye. Meanwhile, the composite information about the latitude of TC center, surface maximum wind speed, TC age, and critical wind radii of 34- and 50-kt winds can be combined to build another mathematical model for deriving the innercore wind structure. After that, least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), and linear regression are introduced, respectively, in the two mathematical models, which are then tested with sensitivity experiments on real TC cases. Verification shows that the innercore 2-D surface wind field structure estimated by LSSVM is better than that of RBFNN and linear regression.

  6. An Improved Local Gradient Method for Sea Surface Wind Direction Retrieval from SAR Imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lizhang Zhou

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Sea surface wind affects the fluxes of energy, mass and momentum between the atmosphere and ocean, and therefore regional and global weather and climate. With various satellite microwave sensors, sea surface wind can be measured with large spatial coverage in almost all-weather conditions, day or night. Like any other remote sensing measurements, sea surface wind measurement is also indirect. Therefore, it is important to develop appropriate wind speed and direction retrieval models for different types of microwave instruments. In this paper, a new sea surface wind direction retrieval method from synthetic aperture radar (SAR imagery is developed. In the method, local gradients are computed in frequency domain by combining the operation of smoothing and computing local gradients in one step to simplify the process and avoid the difference approximation. This improved local gradients (ILG method is compared with the traditional two-dimensional fast Fourier transform (2D FFT method and local gradients (LG method, using interpolating wind directions from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF reanalysis data and the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP wind vector product. The sensitivities to the salt-and-pepper noise, the additive noise and the multiplicative noise are analyzed. The ILG method shows a better performance of retrieval wind directions than the other two methods.

  7. A hybrid measure-correlate-predict method for long-term wind condition assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Jie; Chowdhury, Souma; Messac, Achille; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology with greater accuracy is developed. • Three sets of performance metrics are proposed to evaluate the hybrid MCP method. • Both wind speed and direction are considered in the hybrid MCP method. • The best combination of MCP algorithms is determined. • The developed hybrid MCP method is uniquely helpful for long-term wind resource assessment. - Abstract: This paper develops a hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) strategy to assess long-term wind resource variations at a farm site. The hybrid MCP method uses recorded data from multiple reference stations to estimate long-term wind conditions at a target wind plant site with greater accuracy than is possible with data from a single reference station. The weight of each reference station in the hybrid strategy is determined by the (i) distance and (ii) elevation differences between the target farm site and each reference station. In this case, the wind data is divided into sectors according to the wind direction, and the MCP strategy is implemented for each wind direction sector separately. The applicability of the proposed hybrid strategy is investigated using five MCP methods: (i) the linear regression; (ii) the variance ratio; (iii) the Weibull scale; (iv) the artificial neural networks; and (v) the support vector regression. To implement the hybrid MCP methodology, we use hourly averaged wind data recorded at five stations in the state of Minnesota between 07-01-1996 and 06-30-2004. Three sets of performance metrics are used to evaluate the hybrid MCP method. The first set of metrics analyze the statistical performance, including the mean wind speed, wind speed variance, root mean square error, and mean absolute error. The second set of metrics evaluate the distribution of long-term wind speed; to this end, the Weibull distribution and the Multivariate and Multimodal Wind Distribution models are adopted. The third set of metrics analyze

  8. The use of real-time off-site observations as a methodology for increasing forecast skill in prediction of large wind power ramps one or more hours ahead of their impact on a wind plant.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin Wilde, Principal Investigator

    2012-12-31

    ABSTRACT Application of Real-Time Offsite Measurements in Improved Short-Term Wind Ramp Prediction Skill Improved forecasting performance immediately preceding wind ramp events is of preeminent concern to most wind energy companies, system operators, and balancing authorities. The value of near real-time hub height-level wind data and more general meteorological measurements to short-term wind power forecasting is well understood. For some sites, access to onsite measured wind data - even historical - can reduce forecast error in the short-range to medium-range horizons by as much as 50%. Unfortunately, valuable free-stream wind measurements at tall tower are not typically available at most wind plants, thereby forcing wind forecasters to rely upon wind measurements below hub height and/or turbine nacelle anemometry. Free-stream measurements can be appropriately scaled to hub-height levels, using existing empirically-derived relationships that account for surface roughness and turbulence. But there is large uncertainty in these relationships for a given time of day and state of the boundary layer. Alternatively, forecasts can rely entirely on turbine anemometry measurements, though such measurements are themselves subject to wake effects that are not stationary. The void in free-stream hub-height level measurements of wind can be filled by remote sensing (e.g., sodar, lidar, and radar). However, the expense of such equipment may not be sustainable. There is a growing market for traditional anemometry on tall tower networks, maintained by third parties to the forecasting process (i.e., independent of forecasters and the forecast users). This study examines the value of offsite tall-tower data from the WINDataNOW Technology network for short-horizon wind power predictions at a wind farm in northern Montana. The presentation shall describe successful physical and statistical techniques for its application and the practicality of its application in an operational

  9. Two Machine Learning Approaches for Short-Term Wind Speed Time-Series Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ak, Ronay; Fink, Olga; Zio, Enrico

    2016-08-01

    The increasing liberalization of European electricity markets, the growing proportion of intermittent renewable energy being fed into the energy grids, and also new challenges in the patterns of energy consumption (such as electric mobility) require flexible and intelligent power grids capable of providing efficient, reliable, economical, and sustainable energy production and distribution. From the supplier side, particularly, the integration of renewable energy sources (e.g., wind and solar) into the grid imposes an engineering and economic challenge because of the limited ability to control and dispatch these energy sources due to their intermittent characteristics. Time-series prediction of wind speed for wind power production is a particularly important and challenging task, wherein prediction intervals (PIs) are preferable results of the prediction, rather than point estimates, because they provide information on the confidence in the prediction. In this paper, two different machine learning approaches to assess PIs of time-series predictions are considered and compared: 1) multilayer perceptron neural networks trained with a multiobjective genetic algorithm and 2) extreme learning machines combined with the nearest neighbors approach. The proposed approaches are applied for short-term wind speed prediction from a real data set of hourly wind speed measurements for the region of Regina in Saskatchewan, Canada. Both approaches demonstrate good prediction precision and provide complementary advantages with respect to different evaluation criteria.

  10. Anomalous Arctic surface wind patterns and their impacts on September sea ice minima and trend

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bingyi Wu

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available We used monthly mean surface wind data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Centers for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset during the period 1979–2010 to describe the first two patterns of Arctic surface wind variability by means of the complex vector empirical orthogonal function (CVEOF analysis. The first two patterns respectively account for 31 and 16% of its total anomalous kinetic energy. The leading pattern consists of the two subpatterns: the northern Laptev Sea (NLS pattern and the Arctic dipole (AD pattern. The second pattern contains the northern Kara Sea (NKS pattern and the central Arctic (CA pattern. Over the past two decades, the combined dynamical forcing of the first two patterns has contributed to Arctic September sea ice extent (SIE minima and its declining trend. September SIE minima are mainly associated with the negative phase of the AD pattern and the positive phase of the CA pattern during the summer (July to September season, and both phases coherently show an anomalous anticyclone over the Arctic Ocean. Wind patterns affect September SIE through their frequency and intensity. The negative trend in September SIE over the past two decades is associated with increased frequency and enhanced intensity of the CA pattern during the melting season from April to September. Thus, it cannot be simply attributed to the AD anomaly characterised by the second empirical orthogonal function mode of sea level pressure north of 70°N. The CA pattern exhibited interdecadal variability in the late 1990s, and an anomalous cyclone prevailed before 1997 and was then replaced by an anomalous anticyclone over the Arctic Ocean that is consistent with the rapid decline trend in September SIE. This paper provides an alternative way to identify the dominant patterns of climate variability and investigate their associated Arctic sea ice variability from a dynamical perspective. Indeed, this study

  11. Effect of phase coupling on surface amplitude distribution of wind waves

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Varkey, M.J.

    Nonlinear features of wind generated surface waves are considered here to be caused by nonrandomness (non-Uniform) in the phase spectrum. Nonrandomness in recorded waves, if present, would be generally obscured within the error level of observations...

  12. Wind effect on water surface of water reservoirs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Pelikán

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The primary research of wind-water interactions was focused on coastal areas along the shores of world oceans and seas because a basic understanding of coastal meteorology is an important component in coastal and offshore design and planning. Over time the research showed the most important meteorological consideration relates to the dominant role of winds in wave generation. The rapid growth of building-up of dams in 20th century caused spreading of the water wave mechanics research to the inland water bodies. The attention was paid to the influence of waterwork on its vicinity, wave regime respectively, due to the shoreline deterioration, predominantly caused by wind waves. Consequently the similar principles of water wave mechanics are considered in conditions of water reservoirs. The paper deals with the fundamental factors associated with initial wind-water interactions resulting in the wave origination and growth. The aim of the paper is thepresentation of utilization of piece of knowledge from a part of sea hydrodynamics and new approach in its application in the conditions of inland water bodies with respect to actual state of the art. The authors compared foreign and national approach to the solved problems and worked out graphical interpretation and overview of related wind-water interaction factors.

  13. Comparison of the ocean surface vector winds from atmospheric reanalysis and scatterometer-based wind products over the Nordic Seas and the northern North Atlantic and their application for ocean modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dukhovskoy, Dmitry S.; Bourassa, Mark A.; Petersen, Gudrún Nína; Steffen, John

    2017-03-01

    Ocean surface vector wind fields from reanalysis data sets and scatterometer-derived gridded products are analyzed over the Nordic Seas and the northern North Atlantic for the time period from 2000 to 2009. The data sets include the National Center for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis 2 (NCEPR2), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR), Cross-Calibrated Multiplatform (CCMP) wind product version 1.1 and recently released version 2.0, and QuikSCAT. The goal of the study is to assess discrepancies across the wind vector fields in the data sets and demonstrate possible implications of these differences for ocean modeling. Large-scale and mesoscale characteristics of winds are compared at interannual, seasonal, and synoptic timescales. A cyclone tracking methodology is developed and applied to the wind fields to compare cyclone characteristics in the data sets. Additionally, the winds are evaluated against observations collected from meteorological buoys deployed in the Iceland and Irminger Seas. The agreement among the wind fields is better for longer time and larger spatial scales. The discrepancies are clearly apparent for synoptic timescales and mesoscales. CCMP, ASR, and CFSR show the closest overall agreement with each other. Substantial biases are found in the NCEPR2 winds. Numerical sensitivity experiments are conducted with a coupled ice-ocean model forced by different wind fields. The experiments demonstrate differences in the net surface heat fluxes during storms. In the experiment forced by NCEPR2 winds, there are discrepancies in the large-scale wind-driven ocean dynamics compared to the other experiments.

  14. Performance Evaluation of a Modular Design of Wind Tower with Wetted Surfaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sajad M.R. Khani

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Wind towers or wind catchers, as passive cooling systems, can provide natural ventilation in buildings located in hot, arid regions. These natural cooling systems can provide thermal comfort for the building inhabitants throughout the warm months. In this paper, a modular design of a wind tower is introduced. The design, called a modular wind tower with wetted surfaces, was investigated experimentally and analytically. To determine the performance of the wind tower, air temperature, relative humidity (RH and air velocity were measured at different points. Measurements were carried out when the wind speed was zero. The experimental results were compared with the analytical ones. The results illustrated that the modular wind tower can decrease the air temperature significantly and increase the relative humidity of airflow into the building. The average differences for air temperature and air relative humidity between ambient air and air exiting from the wind tower were approximately 10 °C and 40%, respectively. The main advantage of the proposed wind tower is that it is a modular design that can reduce the cost of wind tower construction.

  15. Doppler lidar investigation of wind turbine wake characteristics and atmospheric turbulence under different surface roughness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Xiaochun; Wu, Songhua; Liu, Bingyi

    2017-06-12

    Four field experiments based on Pulsed Coherent Doppler Lidar with different surface roughness have been carried out in 2013-2015 to study the turbulent wind field in the vicinity of operating wind turbine in the onshore and offshore wind parks. The turbulence characteristics in ambient atmosphere and wake area was analyzed using transverse structure function based on Plane Position Indicator scanning mode. An automatic wake processing procedure was developed to determine the wake velocity deficit by considering the effect of ambient velocity disturbance and wake meandering with the mean wind direction. It is found that the turbine wake obviously enhances the atmospheric turbulence mixing, and the difference in the correlation of turbulence parameters under different surface roughness is significant. The dependence of wake parameters including the wake velocity deficit and wake length on wind velocity and turbulence intensity are analyzed and compared with other studies, which validates the empirical model and simulation of a turbine wake for various atmosphere conditions.

  16. Wind tunnel testing to predict control room atmospheric dispersion factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmquist, L.J.; Harden, P.A.; Muraida, J.E.

    1993-01-01

    Recent concerns at Palisades about control room habitability in the event of a loss-of-coolant accident have led to an extensive effort to increase control room habitability margin. The heating, ventilating and air-conditioning (HVAC) system servicing the control room has the potential for unfiltered in-leakage through its normal outside air intake louvered isolation dampers during emergency mode. The current limiting control room habitability analysis allows for 1.2 x 10 -2 m 3 /s (25 ft 3 /min) unfiltered in-leakage into the control room envelope. This leakage value was not thought to be achievable with the existing as-built configuration. Repairing the system was considered as a potential solution; however, this would be costly and could negatively affect plant operation. In addition, the system would still be required to meet the low specified unfiltered in-leakage. A second approach to this problem was to determine the atmospheric dispersion factors (x/Q's) through a wind tunnel test using a scale model of Palisades. The results of the wind tunnel testing could yield more realistic x/Q's for control room habitability than previously employed methods. Palisades selected the wind tunnel study option based on its ease of implementation, realistic results, and low cost. More importantly, the results of the study could increase the allowable unfiltered in-leakage

  17. Predicting Ionization Rates from SEP and Solar Wind Proton Precipitation into the Martian Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolitz, R.; Dong, C.; Lee, C. O.; Curry, S.; Lillis, R. J.; Brain, D.; Halekas, J. S.; Larson, D. E.; Bougher, S. W.; Jakosky, B. M.

    2017-12-01

    Precipitating energetic particles ionize planetary atmospheres and increase total electron content. At Mars, the solar wind and solar energetic particles (SEPs) can precipitate directly into the atmosphere because solar wind protons can charge exchange to become neutrals and pass through the magnetosheath, while SEPs are sufficiently energetic to cross the magnetosheath unchanged. In this study we will present predicted ionization rates and resulting electron densities produced by solar wind and SEP proton ionization during nominal solar activity and a CME shock front impact event on May 16 2016. We will use the Atmospheric Scattering of Protons and Energetic Neutrals (ASPEN) model to compare ionization by SEP and solar wind protons currently measured by the SWIA (Solar Wind Ion Analyzer) and SEP instruments aboard the MAVEN spacecraft. Results will help to quantify how the ionosphere responds to extreme solar events during solar minimum.

  18. Combined Active and Reactive Power Control of Wind Farms based on Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei; Wang, Jianhui

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a combined wind farm controller based on Model Predictive Control (MPC). Compared with the conventional decoupled active and reactive power control, the proposed control scheme considers the significant impact of active power on voltage variations due to the low X=R ratio...... of wind farm collector systems. The voltage control is improved. Besides, by coordination of active and reactive power, the Var capacity is optimized to prevent potential failures due to Var shortage, especially when the wind farm operates close to its full load. An analytical method is used to calculate...... the sensitivity coefficients to improve the computation efficiency and overcome the convergence problem. Two control modes are designed for both normal and emergency conditions. A wind farm with 20 wind turbines was used to verify the proposed combined control scheme....

  19. A prediction model for wind speed ratios at pedestrian level with simplified urban canopies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikegaya, N.; Ikeda, Y.; Hagishima, A.; Razak, A. A.; Tanimoto, J.

    2017-02-01

    The purpose of this study is to review and improve prediction models for wind speed ratios at pedestrian level with simplified urban canopies. We adopted an extensive database of velocity fields under various conditions for arrays consisting of cubes, slender or flattened rectangles, and rectangles with varying roughness heights. Conclusions are summarized as follows: first, a new geometric parameter is introduced as a function of the plan area index and the aspect ratio so as to express the increase in virtual density that causes wind speed reduction. Second, the estimated wind speed ratios in the range 0.05 coefficients between the wind speeds averaged over the entire region, and the front or side region values are larger than 0.8. In contrast, in areas where the influence of roughness elements is significant, such as behind a building, the wind speeds are weakly correlated.

  20. Bayesian state prediction of wind turbine bearing failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herp, Jürgen; Ramezani, Mohammad H.; Bach-Andersen, Martin

    2017-01-01

    A statistical approach to abstract and predict turbine states in an online manner has been developed. Online inference is performed on temperature measurement residuals to predict the failure state δn steps ahead of time. In this framework a case study is performed showing the ability to predict...

  1. Local inertial oscillations in the surface ocean generated by time-varying winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shengli; Polton, Jeff A.; Hu, Jianyu; Xing, Jiuxing

    2015-12-01

    A new relationship is presented to give a review study on the evolution of inertial oscillations in the surface ocean locally generated by time-varying wind stress. The inertial oscillation is expressed as the superposition of a previous oscillation and a newly generated oscillation, which depends upon the time-varying wind stress. This relationship is employed to investigate some idealized wind change events. For a wind series varying temporally with different rates, the induced inertial oscillation is dominated by the wind with the greatest variation. The resonant wind, which rotates anti-cyclonically at the local inertial frequency with time, produces maximal amplitude of inertial oscillations, which grows monotonically. For the wind rotating at non-inertial frequencies, the responses vary periodically, with wind injecting inertial energy when it is in phase with the currents, but removing inertial energy when it is out of phase. The wind rotating anti-cyclonically with time is much more favorable to generate inertial oscillations than the cyclonic rotating wind. The wind with a frequency closer to the inertial frequency generates stronger inertial oscillations. For a diurnal wind, the induced inertial oscillation is dependent on latitude and is most significant at 30 °. This relationship is also applied to examine idealized moving cyclones. The inertial oscillation is much stronger on the right-hand side of the cyclone path than on the left-hand side (in the northern hemisphere). This is due to the wind being anti-cyclonic with time on the right-hand side, but cyclonic on the other side. The inertial oscillation varies with the cyclone translation speed. The optimal translation speed generating the greatest inertial oscillations is 2 m/s at the latitude of 10 ° and gradually increases to 6 m/s at the latitude of 30 °.

  2. Prediction of the wind turbine performance by using BEM with airfoil data extracted from CFD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Hua; Shen, Wen Zhong; Xu, Haoran

    2014-01-01

    Blade element momentum (BEM) theory with airfoil data is a widely used technique for prediction of wind turbine aerodynamic performance, but the reliability of the airfoil data is an important factor for the prediction accuracy of aerodynamic loads and power. The airfoil characteristics used in BEM...

  3. Wind-Tunnel Investigations of Blunt-Body Drag Reduction Using Forebody Surface Roughness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitmore, Stephen A.; Sprague, Stephanie; Naughton, Jonathan W.; Curry, Robert E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents results of wind-tunnel tests that demonstrate a novel drag reduction technique for blunt-based vehicles. For these tests, the forebody roughness of a blunt-based model was modified using micomachined surface overlays. As forebody roughness increases, boundary layer at the model aft thickens and reduces the shearing effect of external flow on the separated flow behind the base region, resulting in reduced base drag. For vehicle configurations with large base drag, existing data predict that a small increment in forebody friction drag will result in a relatively large decrease in base drag. If the added increment in forebody skin drag is optimized with respect to base drag, reducing the total drag of the configuration is possible. The wind-tunnel tests results conclusively demonstrate the existence of a forebody dragbase drag optimal point. The data demonstrate that the base drag coefficient corresponding to the drag minimum lies between 0.225 and 0.275, referenced to the base area. Most importantly, the data show a drag reduction of approximately 15% when the drag optimum is reached. When this drag reduction is scaled to the X-33 base area, drag savings approaching 45,000 N (10,000 lbf) can be realized.

  4. Wind Power Grid Connected Capacity Prediction Using LSSVM Optimized by the Bat Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qunli Wu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Given the stochastic nature of wind, wind power grid-connected capacity prediction plays an essential role in coping with the challenge of balancing supply and demand. Accurate forecasting methods make enormous contribution to mapping wind power strategy, power dispatching and sustainable development of wind power industry. This study proposes a bat algorithm (BA–least squares support vector machine (LSSVM hybrid model to improve prediction performance. In order to select input of LSSVM effectively, Stationarity, Cointegration and Granger causality tests are conducted to examine the influence of installed capacity with different lags, and partial autocorrelation analysis is employed to investigate the inner relationship of grid-connected capacity. The parameters in LSSVM are optimized by BA to validate the learning ability and generalization of LSSVM. Multiple model sufficiency evaluation methods are utilized. The research results reveal that the accuracy improvement of the present approach can reach about 20% compared to other single or hybrid models.

  5. On the dependence of sea surface roughness on wind waves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnson, H.K.; Højstrup, J.; Vested, H.J.

    1998-01-01

    that calculations of the wind friction velocities using the wave-spectra-dependent expression of Hansen and Larsen agrees quite well with measured values during RASEX. It also gives a trend in Charnock parameter consistent with that found by combining the field data. Last, calculations using a constant Charnock...

  6. A novel implementation of kNN classifier based on multi-tupled meteorological input data for wind power prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yesilbudak, Mehmet; Sagiroglu, Seref; Colak, Ilhami

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • An accurate wind power prediction model is proposed for very short-term horizon. • The k-nearest neighbor classifier is implemented based on the multi-tupled inputs. • The variation of wind power prediction errors is evaluated in various aspects. • Our approach shows the superior prediction performance over the persistence method. - Abstract: With the growing share of wind power production in the electric power grids, many critical challenges to the grid operators have been emerged in terms of the power balance, power quality, voltage support, frequency stability, load scheduling, unit commitment and spinning reserve calculations. To overcome such problems, numerous studies have been conducted to predict the wind power production, but a small number of them have attempted to improve the prediction accuracy by employing the multidimensional meteorological input data. The novelties of this study lie in the proposal of an efficient and easy to implement very short-term wind power prediction model based on the k-nearest neighbor classifier (kNN), in the usage of wind speed, wind direction, barometric pressure and air temperature parameters as the multi-tupled meteorological inputs and in the comparison of wind power prediction results with respect to the persistence reference model. As a result of the achieved patterns, we characterize the variation of wind power prediction errors according to the input tuples, distance measures and neighbor numbers, and uncover the most influential and the most ineffective meteorological parameters on the optimization of wind power prediction results.

  7. Complex terrain wind resource estimation with the wind-atlas method: Prediction errors using linearized and nonlinear CFD micro-scale models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Troen, Ib; Bechmann, Andreas; Kelly, Mark C.

    2014-01-01

    Using the Wind Atlas methodology to predict the average wind speed at one location from measured climatological wind frequency distributions at another nearby location we analyse the relative prediction errors using a linearized flow model (IBZ) and a more physically correct fully non-linear 3D...... flow model (CFD) for a number of sites in very complex terrain (large terrain slopes). We first briefly describe the Wind Atlas methodology as implemented in WAsP and the specifics of the “classical” model setup and the new setup allowing the use of the CFD computation engine. We discuss some known...

  8. A New Global Regression Analysis Method for the Prediction of Wind Tunnel Model Weight Corrections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulbrich, Norbert Manfred; Bridge, Thomas M.; Amaya, Max A.

    2014-01-01

    A new global regression analysis method is discussed that predicts wind tunnel model weight corrections for strain-gage balance loads during a wind tunnel test. The method determines corrections by combining "wind-on" model attitude measurements with least squares estimates of the model weight and center of gravity coordinates that are obtained from "wind-off" data points. The method treats the least squares fit of the model weight separate from the fit of the center of gravity coordinates. Therefore, it performs two fits of "wind- off" data points and uses the least squares estimator of the model weight as an input for the fit of the center of gravity coordinates. Explicit equations for the least squares estimators of the weight and center of gravity coordinates are derived that simplify the implementation of the method in the data system software of a wind tunnel. In addition, recommendations for sets of "wind-off" data points are made that take typical model support system constraints into account. Explicit equations of the confidence intervals on the model weight and center of gravity coordinates and two different error analyses of the model weight prediction are also discussed in the appendices of the paper.

  9. Predictive control of a chaotic permanent magnet synchronous generator in a wind turbine system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Messadi, Manal; Mellit, Adel; Kemih, Karim; Ghanes, Malek

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates how to address the chaos problem in a permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) in a wind turbine system. Predictive control approach is proposed to suppress chaotic behavior and make operating stable; the advantage of this method is that it can only be applied to one state of the wind turbine system. The use of the genetic algorithms to estimate the optimal parameter values of the wind turbine leads to maximization of the power generation. Moreover, some simulation results are included to visualize the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method. (paper)

  10. Predictive control of a chaotic permanent magnet synchronous generator in a wind turbine system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manal, Messadi; Adel, Mellit; Karim, Kemih; Malek, Ghanes

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates how to address the chaos problem in a permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) in a wind turbine system. Predictive control approach is proposed to suppress chaotic behavior and make operating stable; the advantage of this method is that it can only be applied to one state of the wind turbine system. The use of the genetic algorithms to estimate the optimal parameter values of the wind turbine leads to maximization of the power generation. Moreover, some simulation results are included to visualize the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method. Project supported by the CMEP-TASSILI Project (Grant No. 14MDU920).

  11. Assessing Long-Term Wind Conditions by Combining Different Measure-Correlate-Predict Algorithms: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, J.; Chowdhury, S.; Messac, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-08-01

    This paper significantly advances the hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology, enabling it to account for variations of both wind speed and direction. The advanced hybrid MCP method uses the recorded data of multiple reference stations to estimate the long-term wind condition at a target wind plant site. The results show that the accuracy of the hybrid MCP method is highly sensitive to the combination of the individual MCP algorithms and reference stations. It was also found that the best combination of MCP algorithms varies based on the length of the correlation period.

  12. Using Unsupervised Machine Learning for Outlier Detection in Data to Improve Wind Power Production Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Åkerberg, Ludvig

    2017-01-01

    The expansion of wind power for electrical energy production has increased in recent years and shows no signs of slowing down. This unpredictable source of energy has contributed to destabilization of the electrical grid causing the energy market prices to vary significantly on a daily basis. For energy producers and consumers to make good investments, methods have been developed to make predictions of wind power production. These methods are often based on machine learning were historical we...

  13. A Free Wake Numerical Simulation for Darrieus Vertical Axis Wind Turbine Performance Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belu, Radian

    2010-11-01

    In the last four decades, several aerodynamic prediction models have been formulated for the Darrieus wind turbine performances and characteristics. We can identified two families: stream-tube and vortex. The paper presents a simplified numerical techniques for simulating vertical axis wind turbine flow, based on the lifting line theory and a free vortex wake model, including dynamic stall effects for predicting the performances of a 3-D vertical axis wind turbine. A vortex model is used in which the wake is composed of trailing stream-wise and shedding span-wise vortices, whose strengths are equal to the change in the bound vortex strength as required by the Helmholz and Kelvin theorems. Performance parameters are computed by application of the Biot-Savart law along with the Kutta-Jukowski theorem and a semi-empirical stall model. We tested the developed model with an adaptation of the earlier multiple stream-tube performance prediction model for the Darrieus turbines. Predictions by using our method are shown to compare favorably with existing experimental data and the outputs of other numerical models. The method can predict accurately the local and global performances of a vertical axis wind turbine, and can be used in the design and optimization of wind turbines for built environment applications.

  14. Multisensor satellite data integration for sea surface wind speed and direction determination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glackin, D. L.; Pihos, G. G.; Wheelock, S. L.

    1984-01-01

    Techniques to integrate meteorological data from various satellite sensors to yield a global measure of sea surface wind speed and direction for input to the Navy's operational weather forecast models were investigated. The sensors were launched or will be launched, specifically the GOES visible and infrared imaging sensor, the Nimbus-7 SMMR, and the DMSP SSM/I instrument. An algorithm for the extrapolation to the sea surface of wind directions as derived from successive GOES cloud images was developed. This wind veering algorithm is relatively simple, accounts for the major physical variables, and seems to represent the best solution that can be found with existing data. An algorithm for the interpolation of the scattered observed data to a common geographical grid was implemented. The algorithm is based on a combination of inverse distance weighting and trend surface fitting, and is suited to combing wind data from disparate sources.

  15. Causes of bat fatalities at wind turbines: Hypotheses and predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cryan, P.M.; Barclay, R.M.R.

    2009-01-01

    Thousands of industrial-scale wind turbines are being built across the world each year to meet the growing demand for sustainable energy. Bats of certain species are dying at wind turbines in unprecedented numbers. Species of bats consistently affected by turbines tend to be those that rely on trees as roosts and most migrate long distances. Although considerable progress has been made in recent years toward better understanding the problem, the causes of bat fatalities at turbines remain unclear. In this synthesis, we review hypothesized causes of bat fatalities at turbines. Hypotheses of cause fall into 2 general categoriesproximate and ultimate. Proximate causes explain the direct means by which bats die at turbines and include collision with towers and rotating blades, and barotrauma. Ultimate causes explain why bats come close to turbines and include 3 general types: random collisions, coincidental collisions, and collisions that result from attraction of bats to turbines. The random collision hypothesis posits that interactions between bats and turbines are random events and that fatalities are representative of the bats present at a site. Coincidental hypotheses posit that certain aspects of bat distribution or behavior put them at risk of collision and include aggregation during migration and seasonal increases in flight activity associated with feeding or mating. A surprising number of attraction hypotheses suggest that bats might be attracted to turbines out of curiosity, misperception, or as potential feeding, roosting, flocking, and mating opportunities. Identifying, prioritizing, and testing hypothesized causes of bat collisions with wind turbines are vital steps toward developing practical solutions to the problem. ?? 2009 American Society of Mammalogists.

  16. Global composites of surface wind speeds in tropical cyclones based on a 12 year scatterometer database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klotz, Bradley W.; Jiang, Haiyan

    2016-10-01

    A 12 year global database of rain-corrected satellite scatterometer surface winds for tropical cyclones (TCs) is used to produce composites of TC surface wind speed distributions relative to vertical wind shear and storm motion directions in each TC-prone basin and various TC intensity stages. These composites corroborate ideas presented in earlier studies, where maxima are located right of motion in the Earth-relative framework. The entire TC surface wind asymmetry is down motion left for all basins and for lower strength TCs after removing the motion vector. Relative to the shear direction, the motion-removed composites indicate that the surface wind asymmetry is located down shear left for the outer region of all TCs, but for the inner-core region it varies from left of shear to down shear right for different basin and TC intensity groups. Quantification of the surface wind asymmetric structure in further stratifications is a necessary next step for this scatterometer data set.

  17. Wind power application research on the fusion of the determination and ensemble prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Shi; Lina, Xu; Yuzhu, Hao

    2017-07-01

    The fused product of wind speed for the wind farm is designed through the use of wind speed products of ensemble prediction from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and professional numerical model products on wind power based on Mesoscale Model5 (MM5) and Beijing Rapid Update Cycle (BJ-RUC), which are suitable for short-term wind power forecasting and electric dispatch. The single-valued forecast is formed by calculating the different ensemble statistics of the Bayesian probabilistic forecasting representing the uncertainty of ECMWF ensemble prediction. Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to improve the time resolution of the single-valued forecast, and based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and the deterministic numerical model prediction, the optimal wind speed forecasting curve and the confidence interval are provided. The result shows that the fusion forecast has made obvious improvement to the accuracy relative to the existing numerical forecasting products. Compared with the 0-24 h existing deterministic forecast in the validation period, the mean absolute error (MAE) is decreased by 24.3 % and the correlation coefficient (R) is increased by 12.5 %. In comparison with the ECMWF ensemble forecast, the MAE is reduced by 11.7 %, and R is increased 14.5 %. Additionally, MAE did not increase with the prolongation of the forecast ahead.

  18. The new generation of tools for prediction of wind power potential and site selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundtang Petersen, Erik

    2012-01-01

    , from insufficient input data to deficient physics and resolution in any of the models, model linking issues, insufficient resolution or errors in surface topographical data such as terrain heights, land cover data etc. Therefore it has been decided on a European Union level to launch a project “The New...... European Wind Atlas” aiming at reducing overall uncertainties in determining wind conditions; standing on three legs: A data bank from a series of intensive measuring campaigns; a thorough examination and redesign of the model chain from global, mesoscale to microscale models and the creation of the wind...

  19. North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and surface wind in the Northeast of the Iberian Peninsula: uncertainty and long term downscaled variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Bustamante, E.; Jimenez, P.A. [CIEMAT, Departamento de Energias Renovables, Madrid (Spain); Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departamento de Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera, Madrid (Spain); Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departamento de Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera, Madrid (Spain); Navarro, J. [CIEMAT, Departamento de Energias Renovables, Madrid (Spain); Xoplaki, E. [University of Bern, Institute of Geography and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern (Switzerland); Montavez, J.P. [Universidad de Murcia, Departamento de Fisica, Murcia (Spain)

    2012-01-15

    The variability and predictability of the surface wind field at the regional scale is explored over a complex terrain region in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula by means of a downscaling technique based on Canonical Correlation Analysis. More than a decade of observations (1992-2005) allows for calibrating and validating a statistical method that elicits the main associations between the large scale atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean areas and the regional wind field. In an initial step the downscaling model is designed by selecting parameter values from practise. To a large extent, the variability of the wind at monthly timescales is found to be governed by the large scale circulation modulated by the particular orographic features of the area. The sensitivity of the downscaling methodology to the selection of the model parameter values is explored, in a second step, by performing a systematic sampling of the parameters space, avoiding a heuristic selection. This provides a metric for the uncertainty associated with the various possible model configurations. The uncertainties associated with the model configuration are considerably dependent on the spatial variability of the wind. While the sampling of the parameters space in the model set up moderately impact estimations during the calibration period, the regional wind variability is very sensitive to the parameters selection at longer timescales. This fact illustrates that downscaling exercises based on a single configuration of parameters should be interpreted with extreme caution. The downscaling model is used to extend the estimations several centuries to the past using long datasets of sea level pressure, thereby illustrating the large temporal variability of the regional wind field from interannual to multicentennial timescales. The analysis does not evidence long term trends throughout the twentieth century, however anomalous episodes of high/low wind speeds are identified

  20. Wind turbine control and model predictive control for uncertain systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Sven Creutz

    as disturbance models for controller design. The theoretical study deals with Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC is an optimal control method which is characterized by the use of a receding prediction horizon. MPC has risen in popularity due to its inherent ability to systematically account for time...

  1. Comparison of measured and predicted airfoil self-noise with application to wind turbine noise reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dassen, T.; Parchen, R.; Guidati, G.; Wagner, S.; Kang, S.; Khodak, A.E.

    1998-01-01

    In the ongoing JOULE-III project 'Development of Design Tools for Reduced Aerodynamic Noise Wind Turbines (DRAW)', prediction codes for inflow-turbulence (IT) noise and turbulent boundary layer trailing-edge (TE) noise, are developed and validated. It is shown that the differences in IT noise radiation between airfoils having a different shape, are correctly predicted. The first, preliminary comparison made between predicted and measured TE noise spectra yields satisfactory results. 17 refs

  2. Spectral Properties of ENVISAT ASAR and QuikSCAT Surface Winds in the North Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karagali, Ioanna; Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Badger, Merete

    2013-01-01

    as an increase in spectral density over similar wavenumber ranges as the spatial resolution increases. The 600-m SAR wind product reveals a range of wavenumbers in which the exchange processes between micro- and meso-scales occur; this range is not captured by the wind products with a resolution of 1.5 km......Spectra derived from ENVISAT Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) and QuikSCAT near-surface ocean winds are investigated over the North Sea. The two sensors offer a wide range of spatial resolutions, from 600 m to 25 km, with different spatial coverage over the area of interest. This provides...... a unique opportunity to study the impact of the spatial resolution on the spectral properties of the wind over a wide range of length scales. Initially, a sub-domain in the North Sea is chosen, due to the overlap of 87 wind scenes from both sensors. The impact of the spatial resolution is manifested...

  3. Global surface wind and flux fields from model assimilation of Seasat data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atlas, R.; Busalacchi, A. J.; Kalnay, E.; Bloom, S.; Ghil, M.

    1986-01-01

    Procedures for dealiasing Seasat data and developing global surface wind and latent and sensible heat flux fields are discussed. Seasat data from September 20, 1978 was dealiased using the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) analysis/forecast system. The wind data obtained with the objective GLA forecast model are compared to the data subjectively dealiased by Peteherych et al. (1984) and Hoffman (1982, 1984). The GLA procedure is also verified using simulated Seasat data. The areas of high and low heat fluxes and cyclonic and anticyclonic wind stresses detected in the generated fields are analyzed and compared to climatological fields. It is observed that there is good correlation between the time-averaged analyses of wind stress obtained subjectively and objectively, and the monthly mean wind stress and latent fluxes agree with climatological fields and atmospheric and oceanic features.

  4. Aero-acoustic noise of wind turbines. Noise prediction models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maribo Pedersen, B. [ed.

    1997-12-31

    Semi-empirical and CAA (Computational AeroAcoustics) noise prediction techniques are the subject of this expert meeting. The meeting presents and discusses models and methods. The meeting may provide answers to the following questions: What Noise sources are the most important? How are the sources best modeled? What needs to be done to do better predictions? Does it boil down to correct prediction of the unsteady aerodynamics around the rotor? Or is the difficult part to convert the aerodynamics into acoustics? (LN)

  5. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu; Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon

    2016-01-01

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  6. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon [Mokpo National University, Muan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  7. Wind gust estimation by combining numerical weather prediction model and statistical post-processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patlakas, Platon; Drakaki, Eleni; Galanis, George; Spyrou, Christos; Kallos, George

    2017-04-01

    The continuous rise of off-shore and near-shore activities as well as the development of structures, such as wind farms and various offshore platforms, requires the employment of state-of-the-art risk assessment techniques. Such analysis is used to set the safety standards and can be characterized as a climatologically oriented approach. Nevertheless, a reliable operational support is also needed in order to minimize cost drawbacks and human danger during the construction and the functioning stage as well as during maintenance activities. One of the most important parameters for this kind of analysis is the wind speed intensity and variability. A critical measure associated with this variability is the presence and magnitude of wind gusts as estimated in the reference level of 10m. The latter can be attributed to different processes that vary among boundary-layer turbulence, convection activities, mountain waves and wake phenomena. The purpose of this work is the development of a wind gust forecasting methodology combining a Numerical Weather Prediction model and a dynamical statistical tool based on Kalman filtering. To this end, the parameterization of Wind Gust Estimate method was implemented to function within the framework of the atmospheric model SKIRON/Dust. The new modeling tool combines the atmospheric model with a statistical local adaptation methodology based on Kalman filters. This has been tested over the offshore west coastline of the United States. The main purpose is to provide a useful tool for wind analysis and prediction and applications related to offshore wind energy (power prediction, operation and maintenance). The results have been evaluated by using observational data from the NOAA's buoy network. As it was found, the predicted output shows a good behavior that is further improved after the local adjustment post-process.

  8. The effect of foam on waves and the aerodynamic roughness of the water surface at high winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troitskaya, Yuliya; Vdovin, Maxim; Sergeev, Daniil; Kandaurov, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    Air-sea coupling at extreme winds is of special interest now in connection with the problem of explanation of the sea surface drag saturation at the wind speed exceeding 30 m/s. The idea on saturation (and even reduction) of the coefficient of aerodynamic resistance of the sea surface at hurricane wind speed first suggested in [1] on the basis of theoretical analysis of sensitivity of maximum wind speed in a hurricane to the ratio of the enthalpy and momentum exchange coefficients was then confirmed by a number of field (e.g.[2]) and laboratory [3] experiments, which showed that the sea surface drag coefficient was significantly reduced in comparison with the parameterization obtained at moderate to strong wind conditions. The theoretical explanations of the effect of the sea surface drag reduction exploit either peculiarities of the air flow over breaking waves (e.g.[4,5]) or the effect of sea drops and spray on the wind-wave momentum exchange (e.g. [6,7]). Recently an alternative hypothesis was suggested in [8], where the surface drag reduction in hurricanes was explained by the influence of foam covering sea surface on its aerodynamic roughness. This paper describes a series of laboratory experiments in Thermostratified Wind-Wave Tank (TSWiWaT) of IAP directed to investigation of the foam impact on the short-wave part of the surface waves and the momentum exchange in the atmospheric boundary layer at high winds in the range of equivalent 10-m wind speed from 12 to 38 m/s. A special foam generator was designed for these experiments. The air flow parameters were retrieved from measurements of the velocity profiles. The frequency-wavenumber spectra of surface waves were retrieved from the measurements of water surface elevation by the array 3-channel wave gauge. Foam coverage of water surface was controlled by video filming of the water surface. The results of measurements were compared with predictions of the quasi-linear model of atmospheric boundary layer over

  9. A Response Surface-Based Cost Model for Wind Farm Design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Jie; Chowdhury, Souma; Messac, Achille; Castillo, Luciano

    2012-01-01

    A Response Surface-Based Wind Farm Cost (RS-WFC) model is developed for the engineering planning of wind farms. The RS-WFC model is developed using Extended Radial Basis Functions (E-RBF) for onshore wind farms in the U.S. This model is then used to explore the influences of different design and economic parameters, including number of turbines, rotor diameter and labor cost, on the cost of a wind farm. The RS-WFC model is composed of three components that estimate the effects of engineering and economic factors on (i) the installation cost, (ii) the annual Operation and Maintenance (O and M) cost, and (iii) the total annual cost of a wind farm. The accuracy of the cost model is favorably established through comparison with pertinent commercial data. The final RS-WFC model provided interesting insights into cost variation with respect to critical engineering and economic parameters. In addition, a newly developed analytical wind farm engineering model is used to determine the power generated by the farm, and the subsequent Cost of Energy (COE). This COE is optimized for a unidirectional uniform “incoming wind speed” scenario using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). We found that the COE could be appreciably minimized through layout optimization, thereby yielding significant cost savings. - Highlights: ► We present a Response Surface-Based Wind Farm Cost (RS-WFC) model for wind farm design. ► The model could estimate installation cost, Operation and Maintenance cost, and total annual cost of a wind farm. ► The Cost of Energy is optimized using Particle Swarm Optimization. ► Layout optimization could yield significant cost savings.

  10. Adjoint-based model predictive control of wind farms : Beyond the quasi steady-state power maximization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vali, M.; Petrović, Vlaho; Boersma, S.; van Wingerden, J.W.; Kuhn, Martin; Dochain, Denis; Henrion, Didier; Peaucelle, Dimitri

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we extend our closed-loop optimal control framework for wind farms to minimize wake-induced power losses. We develop an adjoint-based model predictive controller which employs a medium-fidelity 2D dynamic wind farm model. The wind turbine axial induction factors are considered here

  11. Bayesian based Prognostic Model for Predictive Maintenance of Offshore Wind Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asgarpour, Masoud; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2018-01-01

    The operation and maintenance costs of offshore wind farms can be significantly reduced if existing corrective actions are performed as efficient as possible and if future corrective actions are avoided by performing sufficient preventive actions. In this paper a prognostic model for degradation...... monitoring, fault prediction and predictive maintenance of offshore wind components is defined. The diagnostic model defined in this paper is based on degradation, remaining useful lifetime and hybrid inspection threshold models. The defined degradation model is based on an exponential distribution...

  12. Bayesian based Prognostic Model for Predictive Maintenance of Offshore Wind Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asgarpour, Masoud; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2018-01-01

    monitoring, fault prediction and predictive maintenance of offshore wind components is defined. The diagnostic model defined in this paper is based on degradation, remaining useful lifetime and hybrid inspection threshold models. The defined degradation model is based on an exponential distribution......The operation and maintenance costs of offshore wind farms can be significantly reduced if existing corrective actions are performed as efficient as possible and if future corrective actions are avoided by performing sufficient preventive actions. In this paper a prognostic model for degradation...

  13. Discussion of “Prediction intervals for short-term wind farm generation forecasts” and “Combined nonparametric prediction intervals for wind power generation”

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Tastu, Julija

    2014-01-01

    A new score for the evaluation of interval forecasts, the so-called coverage width-based criterion (CWC), was proposed and utilized.. This score has been used for the tuning (in-sample) and genuine evaluation (out-ofsample) of prediction intervals for various applications, e.g., electric load [1......], electricity prices [2], general purpose prediction [3], and wind power generation [4], [5]. Indeed, two papers by the same authors appearing in the IEEE Transactions On Sustainable Energy employ that score and use it to conclude on the comparative quality of alternative approaches to interval forecasting...

  14. Simplified Approach to Predicting Rough Surface Transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, Robert J.; Stripf, Matthias

    2009-01-01

    Turbine vane heat transfer predictions are given for smooth and rough vanes where the experimental data show transition moving forward on the vane as the surface roughness physical height increases. Consiste nt with smooth vane heat transfer, the transition moves forward for a fixed roughness height as the Reynolds number increases. Comparison s are presented with published experimental data. Some of the data ar e for a regular roughness geometry with a range of roughness heights, Reynolds numbers, and inlet turbulence intensities. The approach ta ken in this analysis is to treat the roughness in a statistical sense , consistent with what would be obtained from blades measured after e xposure to actual engine environments. An approach is given to determ ine the equivalent sand grain roughness from the statistics of the re gular geometry. This approach is guided by the experimental data. A roughness transition criterion is developed, and comparisons are made with experimental data over the entire range of experimental test co nditions. Additional comparisons are made with experimental heat tran sfer data, where the roughness geometries are both regular as well a s statistical. Using the developed analysis, heat transfer calculatio ns are presented for the second stage vane of a high pressure turbine at hypothetical engine conditions.

  15. Sea surface wind perturbations over the Kashevarov Bank of the Okhotsk Sea. A satellite study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tarkhova, T.I.; Permyakov, M.S.; Potalova, E.Yu.; Semykin, V.I. [V.I. Il' ichev Pacific Oceanological Institute of the Far Eastern Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladivostok (Russian Federation). Lab. of the Ocean and Atmosphere Interaction Studies

    2011-07-01

    Sea surface wind perturbations over sea surface temperature (SST) cold anomalies over the Kashevarov Bank (KB) of the Okhotsk Sea are analyzed using satellite (AMSR-E and QuikSCAT) data during the summerautumn period of 2006-2009. It is shown, that frequency of cases of wind speed decreasing over a cold spot in August- September reaches up to 67%. In the cold spot center SST cold anomalies reached 10.5 C and wind speed lowered down to {proportional_to}7ms {sup -1} relative its value on the periphery. The wind difference between a periphery and a centre of the cold spot is proportional to SST difference with the correlations 0.5 for daily satellite passes data, 0.66 for 3-day mean data and 0.9 for monthly ones. For all types of data the coefficient of proportionality consists of {proportional_to}0.3 {sup -1} on 1 C. (orig.)

  16. Modeling Solar-Wind Heavy-Ions' Potential Sputtering of Lunar KREEP Surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barghouty, A. F.; Meyer, F. W.; Harris, R. P.; Adams, J. H., Jr.

    2012-01-01

    Recent laboratory data suggest that potential sputtering may be an important weathering mechanism that can affect the composition of both the lunar surface and its tenuous exosphere; its role and implications, however, remain unclear. Using a relatively simple kinetic model, we will demonstrate that solar-wind heavy ions induced sputtering of KREEP surfaces is critical in establishing the timescale of the overall solar-wind sputtering process of the lunar surface. We will also also show that potential sputtering leads to a more pronounced and significant differentiation between depleted and enriched surface elements. We briefly discuss the impacts of enhanced sputtering on the composition of the regolith and the exosphere, as well as of solar-wind sputtering as a source of hydrogen and water on the moon.

  17. LDV measurement of boundary layer on rotating blade surface in wind tunnel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maeda, Takao; Kamada, Yasunari; Murata, Junsuke; Suzuki, Daiki; Kaga, Norimitsu; Kagisaki, Yosuke

    2014-12-01

    Wind turbines generate electricity due to extracting energy from the wind. The rotor aerodynamics strongly depends on the flow around blade. The surface flow on the rotating blade affects the sectional performance. The wind turbine surface flow has span-wise component due to span-wise change of airfoil section, chord length, twisted angle of blade and centrifugal force on the flow. These span-wise flow changes the boundary layer on the rotating blade and the sectional performance. Hence, the thorough understanding of blade surface flow is important to improve the rotor performance. For the purpose of clarification of the flow behaviour around the rotor blade, the velocity in the boundary layer on rotating blade surface of an experimental HAWT was measured in a wind tunnel. The velocity measurement on the blade surface was carried out by a laser Doppler velocimeter (LDV). As the results of the measurement, characteristics of surface flow are clarified. In optimum tip speed operation, the surface flow on leading edge and r/R=0.3 have large span-wise velocity which reaches 20% of sectional inflow velocity. The surface flow inboard have three dimensional flow patterns. On the other hand, the flow outboard is almost two dimensional in cross sectional plane.

  18. Observations of Martian surface winds at the Viking Lander 1 site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, J.R.; Leovy, C.B.; Tillman, J.E.

    1990-01-01

    Partial failure of the wind instrumentation on the Viking Lander 1 (VL1) in the Martian subtropics (22.5 degree N) has limited previous analyses of meteorological data for this site. The authors describe a method for reconstructing surface winds using data from the partially failed sensor and present and analyze a time series of wind, pressure, and temperature at the site covering 350 Mars days (sols). At the beginning of the mission during early summer, winds were controlled by regional topography, but they soon underwent a transition to a regime controlled by the Hadley circulation. Diurnal and semidiurnal wind oscillations and synoptic variations have been analyzed and compared with the corresponding variations at the Viking Lander 2 middle latitude site (48 degree N). Diurnal wind oscillations were controlled primarily by regional topography and boundary layer forcing, although a global mode may have been influencing them during two brief episodes. Semidiurnal wind oscillations were controlled by the westward propagating semidiurnal tide from sol 210 onward. Comparison of the synoptic variations at the two sites suggests that the same eastward propagating wave trains were present at both sites, at least following the first 1977 great dust storm, but discordant inferred zonal wave numbers and phase speeds at the two sites cast doubt on the zonal wave numbers deduced from analyses of combined wind and pressure data, particularly at the VL1 site where the signal to noise ratio of the dominant synoptic waves is relatively small

  19. Wind effect on currents in a thin surface layer of coastal waters faced open-sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakano, Masanao; Isozaki, Hisaaki; Isozaki, Tokuju; Nemoto, Masashi; Hasunuma, Keiichi; Kitamura, Takashi

    2009-01-01

    Two-years of continuous observation of wind and current were carried out to investigate the relationship between them in the coastal waters off Tokai-mura, Ibaraki prefecture. Three instruments to measure the current were set in a thin surface layer of 3 m above the strong pycnocline, which is a common feature in coastal waters. Both of the power spectra of wind and currents showed very similar features, an outstanding high peak at 24-hour period and a range of high peaks longer than several-days period. The long term variation of the wind field always contained north-wind component, which contributed to forming the southward current along the shore throughout the year. A high correlation coefficient (0.64) was obtained between the wind and the current at a depth of 0.5 m on the basis of the two-year observation. Harmonic analysis revealed that an outstanding current with 24-hour period was the S 1 component (meteorological tide), and was driven by land and sea breezes. These breezes also contained solar tidal components such as K 1 , P 1 and S 2 . These wind components added their own wind driven currents on the original tidal currents. This meant that land and sea breezes generated wind driven currents with solar tidal periods which behaved like astronomical tidal currents. As result, coastal currents contained pseudo tidal currents which behaved like astronomical tidal currents. (author)

  20. High wind speeds prevent formation of a distinct bacterioneuston community in the sea-surface microlayer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahlff, Janina; Stolle, Christian; Giebel, Helge-Ansgar; Brinkhoff, Thorsten; Ribas-Ribas, Mariana; Hodapp, Dorothee; Wurl, Oliver

    2017-05-01

    The sea-surface microlayer (SML) at the boundary between atmosphere and hydrosphere represents a demanding habitat for bacteria. Wind speed is a crucial but poorly studied factor for its physical integrity. Increasing atmospheric burden of CO2, as suggested for future climate scenarios, may particularly act on this habitat at the air-sea interface. We investigated the effect of increasing wind speeds and different pCO2 levels on SML microbial communities in a wind-wave tunnel, which offered the advantage of low spatial and temporal variability. We found that enrichment of bacteria in the SML occurred solely at a U10 wind speed of ≤5.6 m s-1 in the tunnel and ≤4.1 m s-1 in the Baltic Sea. High pCO2 levels further intensified the bacterial enrichment in the SML during low wind speed. In addition, low wind speed and pCO2 induced the formation of a distinctive bacterial community as revealed by 16S rRNA gene fingerprints and influenced the presence or absence of individual taxonomic units within the SML. We conclude that physical stability of the SML below a system-specific wind speed threshold induces specific bacterial communities in the SML entailing strong implications for ecosystem functioning by wind-driven impacts on habitat properties, gas exchange and matter cycling processes. © FEMS 2017.

  1. Spectral Properties of ENVISAT ASAR and QuikSCAT Surface Winds in the North Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioanna Karagali

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Spectra derived from ENVISAT Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR and QuikSCAT near-surface ocean winds are investigated over the North Sea. The two sensors offer a wide range of spatial resolutions, from 600 m to 25 km, with different spatial coverage over the area of interest. This provides a unique opportunity to study the impact of the spatial resolution on the spectral properties of the wind over a wide range of length scales. Initially, a sub-domain in the North Sea is chosen, due to the overlap of 87 wind scenes from both sensors. The impact of the spatial resolution is manifested as an increase in spectral density over similar wavenumber ranges as the spatial resolution increases. The 600-m SAR wind product reveals a range of wavenumbers in which the exchange processes between micro- and meso-scales occur; this range is not captured by the wind products with a resolution of 1.5 km or lower. The lower power levels of coarser resolution wind products, particularly when comparing QuikSCAT to ENVISAT ASAR, strongly suggest that the effective resolution of the wind products should be high enough to resolve the spectral properties. Spectra computed from 87 wind maps are consistent with those obtained from several thousands of samples. Long-term spectra from QuikSCAT show that during the winter, slightly higher energy content is identified compared to the other seasons.

  2. Doppler Navigation System with a Non-Stabilized Antenna as a Sea-Surface Wind Sensor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekrasov, Alexey; Khachaturian, Alena; Veremyev, Vladimir; Bogachev, Mikhail

    2017-06-09

    We propose a concept of the utilization of an aircraft Doppler Navigation System (DNS) as a sea-surface wind sensor complementary to its normal functionality. The DNS with an antenna, which is non-stabilized physically to the local horizontal with x -configured beams, is considered. We consider the wind measurements by the DNS configured in the multi-beam scatterometer mode for a rectilinear flight scenario. The system feasibility and the efficiency of the proposed wind algorithm retrieval are supported by computer simulations. Finally, the associated limitations of the proposed approach are considered.

  3. Annual and interannual variability of scatterometer ocean surface wind over the South China Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, GS; Xu, Q.; Gong, Z.

    2014-01-01

    To investigate the annual and interannual variability of ocean surface wind over the South China Sea (SCS), the vector empirical orthogonal function (VEOF) method and the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) method were employed to analyze a set of combined satellite scatterometer wind data during.......3% of the total variance and represents the East Asian monsoon features. The second mode of VEOF corresponds to a spring-autumn oscillation which accounts for 8.3% of the total variance. To analyze the interannual variability, the annual signal was removed from the wind data set and the VEOFs of the residuals...

  4. Model predictive control of PMSG-based wind turbines for frequency regulation in an isolated grid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Haixin; Yang, Junyou; Ma, Yiming

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a frequency regulation strategy applied to wind turbine generators (WTGs) in an isolated grid. In order to complement active power shortage caused by sudden load or wind speed change, an improved deloading method is proposed to solve inconsistent regulation capabilities...... in different speed regions and provide WTGs a certain capacity of power reserves. Considering the torque compensation may bring about power oscillation, speed reference of conventional pitch control system should be reset. Moreover, to suppress disturbances of load and wind speed as well as overcome dependence...... on system parameters, a model predictive controller (MPC) of wind farm is designed to generate torque compensation for each deloaded WTG. The key feature of this strategy is that each WTG reacts to grid disturbances in different ways, which depends on generator speeds. Hardware-in-the-loop simulation...

  5. Station-keeping control of an unmanned surface vehicle exposed to current and wind disturbances

    OpenAIRE

    Sarda, Edoardo I.; Qu, Huajin; Bertaska, Ivan R.; von Ellenrieder, Karl D.

    2017-01-01

    Field trials of a 4 meter long, 180 kilogram, unmanned surface vehicle (USV) have been conducted to evaluate the performance of station-keeping heading and position controllers in an outdoor marine environment disturbed by wind and current. The USV has a twin hull configuration and a custom-designed propulsion system, which consists of two azimuthing thrusters, one for each hull. Nonlinear proportional derivative, backstepping and sliding mode feedback controllers were tested in winds of abou...

  6. The tropical Atlantic surface wind divergence belt and its effect on clouds

    OpenAIRE

    Y. Tubul; I. Koren; O. Altaratz

    2015-01-01

    A well-defined surface wind divergence (SWD) belt with distinct cloud properties forms over the equatorial Atlantic during the boreal summer months. This belt separates the deep convective clouds of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) from the shallow marine stratocumulus cloud decks forming over the cold-water subtropical region of the southern Hadley cell. Using the QuikSCAT-SeaWinds and Aqua-MODIS instruments, we examined the large-scale spatiotemporal ...

  7. The tropical Atlantic surface wind divergence belt and its effect on clouds

    OpenAIRE

    Y. Tubul; I. Koren; O. Altaratz

    2015-01-01

    A well-defined surface wind divergence (SWD) belt with distinct cloud properties forms over the equatorial Atlantic during the boreal summer months. This belt separates the deep convective clouds of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from the shallow marine stratocumulus cloud decks forming over the cold-water subtropical region of the southern branch of the Hadley cell in the Atlantic. Using the QuikSCAT-SeaWinds and Aqua-MODIS instruments, we examined the large-scal...

  8. Wind field near complex terrain using numerical weather prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chim, Kin-Sang

    The PennState/NCAR MM5 model was modified to simulate an idealized flow pass through a 3D obstacle in the Micro- Alpha Scale domain. The obstacle used were the idealized Gaussian obstacle and the real topography of Lantau Island of Hong Kong. The Froude number under study is ranged from 0.22 to 1.5. Regime diagrams for both the idealized Gaussian obstacle and Lantau island were constructed. This work is divided into five parts. The first part is the problem definition and the literature review of the related publications. The second part briefly discuss as the PennState/NCAR MM5 model and a case study of long- range transport is included. The third part is devoted to the modification and the verification of the PennState/NCAR MM5 model on the Micro-Alpha Scale domain. The implementation of the Orlanski (1976) open boundary condition is included with the method of single sounding initialization of the model. Moreover, an upper dissipative layer, Klemp and Lilly (1978), is implemented on the model. The simulated result is verified by the Automatic Weather Station (AWS) data and the Wind Profiler data. Four different types of Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parameterization schemes have been investigated in order to find out the most suitable one for Micro-Alpha Scale domain in terms of both accuracy and efficiency. Bulk Aerodynamic type of PBL parameterization scheme is found to be the most suitable PBL parameterization scheme. Investigation of the free- slip lower boundary condition is performed and the simulated result is compared with that with friction. The fourth part is the use of the modified PennState/NCAR MM5 model for an idealized flow simulation. The idealized uniform flow used is nonhydrostatic and has constant Froude number. Sensitivity test is performed by varying the Froude number and the regime diagram is constructed. Moreover, nondimensional drag is found to be useful for regime identification. The model result is also compared with the analytic

  9. A Gaussian process regression based hybrid approach for short-term wind speed prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Chi; Wei, Haikun; Zhao, Xin; Liu, Tianhong; Zhang, Kanjian

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel hybrid approach is proposed for short-term wind speed prediction. • This method combines the parametric AR model with the non-parametric GPR model. • The relative importance of different inputs is considered. • Different types of covariance functions are considered and combined. • It can provide both accurate point forecasts and satisfactory prediction intervals. - Abstract: This paper proposes a hybrid model based on autoregressive (AR) model and Gaussian process regression (GPR) for probabilistic wind speed forecasting. In the proposed approach, the AR model is employed to capture the overall structure from wind speed series, and the GPR is adopted to extract the local structure. Additionally, automatic relevance determination (ARD) is used to take into account the relative importance of different inputs, and different types of covariance functions are combined to capture the characteristics of the data. The proposed hybrid model is compared with the persistence model, artificial neural network (ANN), and support vector machine (SVM) for one-step ahead forecasting, using wind speed data collected from three wind farms in China. The forecasting results indicate that the proposed method can not only improve point forecasts compared with other methods, but also generate satisfactory prediction intervals.

  10. Wind-Tunnel Investigation of the Aerodynamic Performance of Surface-Modification Cables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroshi Katsuchi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The wind-induced vibration of stay cables of cable-stayed bridges, which includes rain-wind-induced vibration (RWIV and dry galloping (DG, has been studied for a considerable amount of time. In general, mechanical dampers or surface modification are applied to suppress the vibration. In particular, several types of surface-modification cable, including indentation, longitudinally parallel protuberance, helical fillet, and U-shaped grooving, have been developed. Recently, a new type of aerodynamically stable cable with spiral protuberances was developed. It was confirmed that the cable has a low drag force coefficient, like an indented cable, and that it prevented the formation of water rivulets on the cable surface. In this study, the stability for RWIV of this cable was investigated with various flow angles and protuberance dimensions in a wind-tunnel test. It was found that the spiral protuberance cable is aerodynamically stable against both RWIV and DG for all test wind angles. The effects of the protuberance dimensions were also clarified. Keywords: Rain-wind-induced vibration, Dry galloping, Stay cable, Wind-tunnel test

  11. Comparison of four Adaboost algorithm based artificial neural networks in wind speed predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Hui; Tian, Hong-qi; Li, Yan-fei; Zhang, Lei

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Four hybrid algorithms are proposed for the wind speed decomposition. • Adaboost algorithm is adopted to provide a hybrid training framework. • MLP neural networks are built to do the forecasting computation. • Four important network training algorithms are included in the MLP networks. • All the proposed hybrid algorithms are suitable for the wind speed predictions. - Abstract: The technology of wind speed prediction is important to guarantee the safety of wind power utilization. In this paper, four different hybrid methods are proposed for the high-precision multi-step wind speed predictions based on the Adaboost (Adaptive Boosting) algorithm and the MLP (Multilayer Perceptron) neural networks. In the hybrid Adaboost–MLP forecasting architecture, four important algorithms are adopted for the training and modeling of the MLP neural networks, including GD-ALR-BP algorithm, GDM-ALR-BP algorithm, CG-BP-FR algorithm and BFGS algorithm. The aim of the study is to investigate the promoted forecasting percentages of the MLP neural networks by the Adaboost algorithm’ optimization under various training algorithms. The hybrid models in the performance comparison include Adaboost–GD-ALR-BP–MLP, Adaboost–GDM-ALR-BP–MLP, Adaboost–CG-BP-FR–MLP, Adaboost–BFGS–MLP, GD-ALR-BP–MLP, GDM-ALR-BP–MLP, CG-BP-FR–MLP and BFGS–MLP. Two experimental results show that: (1) the proposed hybrid Adaboost–MLP forecasting architecture is effective for the wind speed predictions; (2) the Adaboost algorithm has promoted the forecasting performance of the MLP neural networks considerably; (3) among the proposed Adaboost–MLP forecasting models, the Adaboost–CG-BP-FR–MLP model has the best performance; and (4) the improved percentages of the MLP neural networks by the Adaboost algorithm decrease step by step with the following sequence of training algorithms as: GD-ALR-BP, GDM-ALR-BP, CG-BP-FR and BFGS

  12. Prediction and Migration of Surface-related Resonant Multiples

    KAUST Repository

    Guo, Bowen

    2015-08-19

    Surface-related resonant multiples can be migrated to achieve better resolution than migrating primary reflections. We now derive the formula for migrating surface-related resonant multiples, and show its super-resolution characteristics. Moreover, a method is proposed to predict surface-related resonant multiples with zero-offset primary reflections. The prediction can be used to indentify and extract the true resonant multiple from other events. Both synthetic and field data are used to validate this prediction.

  13. Observation and modeling of tide- and wind-induced surface currents in Galway Bay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Ren

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available A high-frequency radar system has been deployed in Galway Bay, a semi-enclosed bay on the west coast of Ireland. The system provides surface currents with fine spatial resolution every hour. Prior to its use for model validation, the accuracy of the radar data was verified through comparison with measurements from acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs and a good correlation between time series of surface current speeds and directions obtained from radar data and ADCP data. Since Galway Bay is located on the coast of the Atlantic Ocean, it is subject to relatively windy conditions, and surface currents are therefore strongly wind-driven. With a view to assimilating the radar data for forecasting purposes, a three-dimensional numerical model of Galway Bay, the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC, was developed based on a terrain-following vertical (sigma coordinate system. This study shows that the performance and accuracy of the numerical model, particularly with regard to tide- and wind-induced surface currents, are sensitive to the vertical layer structure. Results of five models with different layer structures are presented and compared with radar measurements. A variable vertical structure with thin layers at the bottom and the surface and thicker layers in the middle of the water column was found to be the optimal layer structure for reproduction of tide- and wind-induced surface currents. This structure ensures that wind shear can properly propagate from the surface layer to the sub-surface layers, thereby ensuring that wind forcing is not overdamped by tidal forcing. The vertical layer structure affects not only the velocities at the surface layer but also the velocities further down in the water column.

  14. Observation and modeling of tide- and wind-induced surface currents in Galway Bay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei REN

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available A high-frequency radar system has been deployed in Galway Bay, a semi-enclosed bay on the west coast of Ireland. The system provides surface currents with fine spatial resolution every hour. Prior to its use for model validation, the accuracy of the radar data was verified through comparison with measurements from acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs and a good correlation between time series of surface current speeds and directions obtained from radar data and ADCP data. Since Galway Bay is located on the coast of the Atlantic Ocean, it is subject to relatively windy conditions, and surface currents are therefore strongly wind-driven. With a view to assimilating the radar data for forecasting purposes, a three-dimensional numerical model of Galway Bay, the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC, was developed based on a terrain-following vertical (sigma coordinate system. This study shows that the performance and accuracy of the numerical model, particularly with regard to tide- and wind-induced surface currents, are sensitive to the vertical layer structure. Results of five models using different layer structures are presented and compared with radar measurements. A variable vertical structure with thin layers at the bottom and the surface and thicker layers in the middle of the water column was found to be the optimal layer structure for reproduction of tide- and wind-induced surface currents. This structure ensures that wind shear can properly propagate from the surface layer to the sub-surface layers, thereby ensuring that wind forcing is not overdamped by tidal forcing. The vertical layer structure affects not only the velocities at the surface layer but also the velocities further down in the water column.

  15. Time-resolved PIV measurements of the atmospheric boundary layer over wind-driven surface waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markfort, Corey; Stegmeir, Matt

    2017-11-01

    Complex interactions at the air-water interface result in two-way coupling between wind-driven surface waves and the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). Turbulence generated at the surface plays an important role in aquatic ecology and biogeochemistry, exchange of gases such as oxygen and carbon dioxide, and it is important for the transfer of energy and controlling evaporation. Energy transferred from the ABL promotes the generation and maintenance of waves. A fraction of the energy is transferred to the surface mixed layer through the generation of turbulence. Energy is also transferred back to the ABL by waves. There is a need to quantify the details of the coupled boundary layers of the air-water system to better understand how turbulence plays a role in the interactions. We employ time-resolved PIV to measure the detailed structure of the air and water boundary layers under varying wind and wave conditions in the newly developed IIHR Boundary-Layer Wind-Wave Tunnel. The facility combines a 30-m long recirculating water channel with an open-return boundary layer wind tunnel. A thick turbulent boundary layer is developed in the 1 m high air channel, over the water surface, allowing for the study of boundary layer turbulence interacting with a wind-driven wave field.

  16. Improved prediction of aerodynamic noise from wind turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guidati, G.; Bareiss, R.; Wagner, S. [Univ. of Stuttgart, Inst. of Aerodynamics and Gasdynamics, Stuttgart (Germany)

    1997-12-31

    This paper focuses on an improved prediction model for inflow-turbulence noise which takes the true airfoil shape into account. Predictions are compared to the results of acoustic measurements on three 2D-models of 0.25 m chord. Two of the models have NACA-636xx airfoils of 12% and 18% relative thickness. The third airfoil was acoustically optimized by using the new prediction model. In the experiments the turbulence intensity of the flow was strongly increased by mounting a grid with 60 mm wide meshes and 12 mm thick rods onto the tunnel exhaust nozzle. The sound radiated from the airfoil was distinguished by the tunnel background noise by using an acoustic antenna consisting of a cross array of 36 microphones in total. An application of a standard beam-forming algorithm allows to determine how much noise is radiated from different parts of the models. This procedure normally results in a peak at the leading and trailing edge of the airfoil. The strength of the leading-edge peak is taken as the source strength for inflow-turbulence noise. (LN) 14 refs.

  17. Wind-Wave Effects on Vertical Mixing in Chesapeake Bay, USA: comparing observations to second-moment closure predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, A. W.; Sanford, L. P.; Scully, M. E.

    2016-12-01

    Coherent wave-driven turbulence generated through wave breaking or nonlinear wave-current interactions, e.g. Langmuir turbulence (LT), can significantly enhance the downward transfer of momentum, kinetic energy, and dissolved gases in the oceanic surface layer. There are few observations of these processes in the estuarine or coastal environments, where wind-driven mixing may co-occur with energetic tidal mixing and strong density stratification. This presents a major challenge for evaluating vertical mixing parameterizations used in modeling estuarine and coastal dynamics. We carried out a large, multi-investigator study of wind-driven estuarine dynamics in the middle reaches of Chesapeake Bay, USA, during 2012-2013. The center of the observational array was an instrumented turbulence tower with both atmospheric and marine turbulence sensors as well as rapidly sampled temperature and conductivity sensors. For this paper, we examined the impacts of surface gravity waves on vertical profiles of turbulent mixing and compared our results to second-moment turbulence closure predictions. Wave and turbulence measurements collected from the vertical array of Acoustic Doppler Velocimeters (ADVs) provided direct estimates of the dominant terms in the TKE budget and the surface wave field. Observed dissipation rates, TKE levels, and turbulent length scales are compared to published scaling relations and used in the calculation of second-moment nonequilibrium stability functions. Results indicate that in the surface layer of the estuary, where elevated dissipation is balanced by vertical divergence in TKE flux, existing nonequilibrium stability functions underpredict observed eddy viscosities. The influences of wave breaking and coherent wave-driven turbulence on modeled and observed stability functions will be discussed further in the context of turbulent length scales, TKE and dissipation profiles, and the depth at which the wave-dominated turbulent transport layer

  18. Towards accurate performance prediction of a vertical axis wind turbine operating at different tip speed ratios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rezaeiha, A.; Kalkman, I.; Blocken, B.J.E.

    2017-01-01

    Accurate prediction of the performance of a vertical-axis wind turbine (VAWT) using CFD simulation requires the employment of a sufficiently fine azimuthal increment (dθ) combined with a mesh size at which essential flow characteristics can be accurately resolved. Furthermore, the domain size needs

  19. Development of ANN Model for Wind Speed Prediction as a Support for Early Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Marović

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of natural disasters increases every year with more casualties and damage to property and the environment. Therefore, it is important to prevent consequences by implementation of the early warning system (EWS in order to announce the possibility of the harmful phenomena occurrence. In this paper, focus is placed on the implementation of the EWS on the micro location in order to announce possible harmful phenomena occurrence caused by wind. In order to predict such phenomena (wind speed, an artificial neural network (ANN prediction model is developed. The model is developed on the basis of the input data obtained by local meteorological station on the University of Rijeka campus area in the Republic of Croatia. The prediction model is validated and evaluated by visual and common calculation approaches, after which it was found that it is possible to perform very good wind speed prediction for time steps Δt=1 h, Δt=3 h, and Δt=8 h. The developed model is implemented in the EWS as a decision support for improvement of the existing “procedure plan in a case of the emergency caused by stormy wind or hurricane, snow and occurrence of the ice on the University of Rijeka campus.”

  20. Health-aware Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines using Fatigue Prognosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sardi, Hector Eloy Sanchez; Escobet, Teressa; Puig, Vicenc

    2015-01-01

    management module with the control provides a mechanism for the wind turbine to operate safely and optimize the trade-off between components life and energy production. The research presented in this paper explores the integration of model predictive control (MPC) with fatigue-based prognosis approach...

  1. Model Predictive Control of Trailing Edge Flaps on a wind turbine blade

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Castaignet, Damien; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Buhl, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Trailing Edge Flaps on wind turbine blades have been studied in order to achieve fatigue load reduction on the turbine components. We show in this paper how Model Predictive Control can be used to do frequency weighted control of the trailing edge flaps in order to reduce fatigue damage on the bl...

  2. 75 FR 75961 - Notice of Implementation of the Wind Erosion Prediction System for Soil Erodibility System...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-07

    ... implementation of the WEPS system does not affect the Highly Erodible Map Unit List contained in the NRCS Field Office Technical Guide as of January 1, 1990. This 1990 list will continue to be used for all erodibility... plant damage, and predict PM-10 emissions when wind speeds exceed the erosion threshold. The WEPS model...

  3. Fatigue life prediction and strength degradation of wind turbine rotor blade composites

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijssen, R.P.L.

    2006-01-01

    Wind turbine rotor blades are subjected to a large number of highly variable loads, but life predictions are typically based on constant amplitude fatigue behaviour. Therefore, it is important to determine how service life under variable amplitude fatigue can be estimated from constant amplitude

  4. A LIDAR-assisted model predictive controller added on a traditional wind turbine controller

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood; Hansen, Morten Hartvig

    2016-01-01

    control and opens the market of retrofitting existing wind turbines with the new technology. In this paper, we suggest a model predictive controller (MPC) that is added to the basic gain scheduled PI controller of a WT to enhance the performance of the closed loop system using LIDAR measurements...

  5. Incorporating Wind Power Forecast Uncertainties Into Stochastic Unit Commitment Using Neural Network-Based Prediction Intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

    2015-09-01

    Penetration of renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar power, into power systems significantly increases the uncertainties on system operation, stability, and reliability in smart grids. In this paper, the nonparametric neural network-based prediction intervals (PIs) are implemented for forecast uncertainty quantification. Instead of a single level PI, wind power forecast uncertainties are represented in a list of PIs. These PIs are then decomposed into quantiles of wind power. A new scenario generation method is proposed to handle wind power forecast uncertainties. For each hour, an empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) is fitted to these quantile points. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used to generate scenarios from the ECDF. Then the wind power scenarios are incorporated into a stochastic security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) model. The heuristic genetic algorithm is utilized to solve the stochastic SCUC problem. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies incorporated with interval forecasts of wind power are implemented. The results of these cases are presented and discussed together. Generation costs, and the scheduled and real-time economic dispatch reserves of different unit commitment strategies are compared. The experimental results show that the stochastic model is more robust than deterministic ones and, thus, decreases the risk in system operations of smart grids.

  6. Dynamic Loads and Wake Prediction for Large Wind Turbines Based on Free Wake Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Cao Jiufa; Wang Tongguang; Long Hui; Ke Shitang; Xu Bofeng

    2015-01-01

    With large scale wind turbines ,the issue of aerodynamic elastic response is even more significant on dy-namic behaviour of the system .Unsteady free vortex wake method is proposed to calculate the shape of wake and aerodynamic load .Considering the effect of aerodynamic load ,inertial load and gravity load ,the decoupling dy-namic equations are established by using finite element method in conjunction of the modal method and equations are solved numerically by Newmark approach .Finally ,the numerical simulation of a large scale wind turbine is performed through coupling the free vortex wake modelling with structural modelling .The results show that this coupling model can predict the flexible wind turbine dynamic characteristics effectively and efficiently .Under the influence of the gravitational force ,the dynamic response of flapwise direction contributes to the dynamic behavior of edgewise direction under the operational condition of steady wind speed .The difference in dynamic response be-tween the flexible and rigid wind turbines manifests when the aerodynamics/structure coupling effect is of signifi-cance in both wind turbine design and performance calculation .

  7. Light reflection from a rough liquid surface including wind-wave effects in a scattering atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salinas, Santo V.; Liew, S.C.

    2007-01-01

    Visible and near-IR images of the ocean surface, taken from remote satellites, often contain important information of near-surface or sub-surface processes, which occur on, or over the ocean. Remote measurements of near surface winds, sea surface temperature and salinity, ocean color and underwater bathymetry, all, one way or another, depend on how well we understand sea surface roughness. However, in order to extract useful information from our remote measurements, we need to construct accurate models of the transfer of solar radiation inside the atmosphere as well as, its reflection from the sea surface. To approach this problem, we numerically solve the radiative transfer equation (RTE) by implementing a model for the atmosphere-ocean system. A one-dimensional atmospheric radiation model is solved via the widely known doubling and adding method and the ocean body is treated as a boundary condition to the problem. The ocean surface is modeled as a rough liquid surface which includes wind interaction and wave states, such as wave age. The model can have possible applications to the retrieval of wind and wave states, such as wave age, near a Sun glint region

  8. Investigation of wind turbine effects on Evapotranspiration using surface energy balance model based on satellite-derived data

    Science.gov (United States)

    hassanpour Adeh, E.; Higgins, C. W.

    2014-12-01

    Wind turbines have been introduced as an energy source that does not require a large expenditure of water. However, recent simulation results indicate that wind turbines increase evaporation rates from the nearby land. In this research the effect of wind energy on irrigated agriculture is determined using a Surface Energy Balance Algorithm (SEBAL) on Landsat data spanning a 30 year interval. The analysis allows the characterization of evapotranspiration (ET) before and after wind turbine installations. The time history of ET from Landsat data will be presented for several major wind farms across the US. These data will be used to determine the impact on water demand due to presence of wind turbines.

  9. Observations and Predictability of Gap Winds in the Salmon River Canyon of Central Idaho, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalie S. Wagenbrenner

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This work investigates gap winds in a steep, deep river canyon prone to wildland fire. The driving mechanisms and the potential for forecasting the gap winds are investigated. The onset and strength of the gap winds are found to be correlated to the formation of an along-gap pressure gradient linked to periodic development of a thermal trough in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Numerical simulations are performed using a reanalysis dataset to investigate the ability of numerical weather prediction (NWP to simulate the observed gap wind events, including the timing and flow characteristics within the canyon. The effects of model horizontal grid spacing and terrain representation are considered. The reanalysis simulations suggest that horizontal grid spacings used in operational NWP could be sufficient for simulating the gap flow events given the regional-scale depression in which the Salmon River Canyon is situated. The strength of the events, however, is under-predicted due, at least in part, to terrain smoothing in the model. Routine NWP, however, is found to have mixed results in terms of forecasting the gap wind events, primarily due to problems in simulating the regional sea level pressure system correctly.

  10. Predicting geomagnetic storms from solar-wind data using time-delay neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Gleisner

    1996-07-01

    Full Text Available We have used time-delay feed-forward neural networks to compute the geomagnetic-activity index Dst one hour ahead from a temporal sequence of solar-wind data. The input data include solar-wind density n, velocity V and the southward component Bz of the interplanetary magnetic field. Dst is not included in the input data. The networks implement an explicit functional relationship between the solar wind and the geomagnetic disturbance, including both direct and time-delayed non-linear relations. In this study we especially consider the influence of varying the temporal size of the input-data sequence. The networks are trained on data covering 6600 h, and tested on data covering 2100 h. It is found that the initial and main phases of geomagnetic storms are well predicted, almost independent of the length of the input-data sequence. However, to predict the recovery phase, we have to use up to 20 h of solar-wind input data. The recovery phase is mainly governed by the ring-current loss processes, and is very much dependent on the ring-current history, and thus also the solar-wind history. With due consideration of the time history when optimizing the networks, we can reproduce 84% of the Dst variance.

  11. Predicting wind farm wake interaction with RANS: an investigation of the Coriolis force

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Laan, Paul; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Sørensen, Niels N.

    2015-01-01

    A Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes code is used to simulate the interaction of two neighboring wind farms. The influence of the Coriolis force is investigated by modeling the atmospheric surface/boundary layer with three different methodologies. The results show that the Coriolis force is negligible...

  12. Correaltion of full-scale drag predictions with flight measurements on the C-141A aircraft. Phase 2: Wind tunnel test, analysis, and prediction techniques. Volume 1: Drag predictions, wind tunnel data analysis and correlation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macwilkinson, D. G.; Blackerby, W. T.; Paterson, J. H.

    1974-01-01

    The degree of cruise drag correlation on the C-141A aircraft is determined between predictions based on wind tunnel test data, and flight test results. An analysis of wind tunnel tests on a 0.0275 scale model at Reynolds number up to 3.05 x 1 million/MAC is reported. Model support interference corrections are evaluated through a series of tests, and fully corrected model data are analyzed to provide details on model component interference factors. It is shown that predicted minimum profile drag for the complete configuration agrees within 0.75% of flight test data, using a wind tunnel extrapolation method based on flat plate skin friction and component shape factors. An alternative method of extrapolation, based on computed profile drag from a subsonic viscous theory, results in a prediction four percent lower than flight test data.

  13. CONTROLLING INFLUENCE OF MAGNETIC FIELD ON SOLAR WIND OUTFLOW: AN INVESTIGATION USING CURRENT SHEET SOURCE SURFACE MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poduval, B., E-mail: bpoduval@spacescience.org [Space Science Institute, Boulder, CO 80303 (United States)

    2016-08-10

    This Letter presents the results of an investigation into the controlling influence of large-scale magnetic field of the Sun in determining the solar wind outflow using two magnetostatic coronal models: current sheet source surface (CSSS) and potential field source surface. For this, we made use of the Wang and Sheeley inverse correlation between magnetic flux expansion rate (FTE) and observed solar wind speed (SWS) at 1 au. During the period of study, extended over solar cycle 23 and beginning of solar cycle 24, we found that the coefficients of the fitted quadratic equation representing the FTE–SWS inverse relation exhibited significant temporal variation, implying the changing pattern of the influence of FTE on SWS over time. A particularly noteworthy feature is an anomaly in the behavior of the fitted coefficients during the extended minimum, 2008–2010 (CRs 2073–2092), which is considered due to the particularly complex nature of the solar magnetic field during this period. However, this variation was significant only for the CSSS model, though not a systematic dependence on the phase of the solar cycle. Further, we noticed that the CSSS model demonstrated better solar wind prediction during the period of study, which we attribute to the treatment of volume and sheet currents throughout the corona and the more accurate tracing of footpoint locations resulting from the geometry of the model.

  14. Near-surface wind pattern in regional climate projections over the broader Adriatic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belušić, Andreina; Telišman Prtenjak, Maja; Güttler, Ivan; Ban, Nikolina; Leutwyler, David; Schär, Christoph

    2017-04-01

    The Adriatic region is characterized by the complex coastline, strong topographic gradients and specific wind regimes. This represents excellent test area for the latest generation of the regional climate models (RCMs) applied over the European domain. The most famous wind along the Adriatic coast is bora, which due to its strength, has a strong impact on all types of human activities in the Adriatic region. The typical bora wind is a severe gusty downslope flow perpendicular to the mountains. Besides bora, in the Adriatic region, typical winds are sirocco (mostly during the wintertime) and sea/land breezes (dominantly in the warm part of the year) as a part of the regional Mediterranean wind system. Thus, it is substantial to determine future changes in the wind filed characteristics (e.g., changes in strength and frequencies). The first step was the evaluation of a suite of ten EURO- and MED-CORDEX models (at 50 km and 12.5 km resolution), and two additional high resolution models from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich (ETHZ, at 12.5 km and 2.2. km resolution) in the present climate. These results provided a basis for the next step where wind field features, in an ensemble of RCMs forced by global climate models (GCMs) in historical and future runs are examined. Our aim is to determine the influence of the particular combination of RCMs and GCMs, horizontal resolution and emission scenario on the future changes in the near-surface wind field. The analysis reveals strong sensitivity of the simulated wind flow and its statistics to both season and location analyzed, to the horizontal resolution of the RCM and on the choice of the particular GCM that provides boundary conditions.

  15. A comparative study of various inflow boundary conditions and turbulence models for wind turbine wake predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Lin-Lin; Zhao, Ning; Song, Yi-Lei; Zhu, Chun-Ling

    2018-05-01

    This work is devoted to perform systematic sensitivity analysis of different turbulence models and various inflow boundary conditions in predicting the wake flow behind a horizontal axis wind turbine represented by an actuator disc (AD). The tested turbulence models are the standard k-𝜀 model and the Reynolds Stress Model (RSM). A single wind turbine immersed in both uniform flows and in modeled atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) flows is studied. Simulation results are validated against the field experimental data in terms of wake velocity and turbulence intensity.

  16. Bayesian based Prognostic Model for Predictive Maintenance of Offshore Wind Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asgarpour, Masoud

    2017-01-01

    monitoring, fault detection and predictive maintenance of offshore wind components is defined. The diagnostic model defined in this paper is based on degradation, remaining useful lifetime and hybrid inspection threshold models. The defined degradation model is based on an exponential distribution......The operation and maintenance costs of offshore wind farms can be significantly reduced if existing corrective actions are performed as efficient as possible and if future corrective actions are avoided by performing sufficient preventive actions. In this paper a prognostic model for degradation...

  17. Predicting Migratory Corridors of White Storks, Ciconia ciconia, to Enhance Sustainable Wind Energy Planning: A Data-Driven Agent-Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis Oloo

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available White storks (Ciconia ciconia are birds that make annual long-distance migration flights from their breeding grounds in the Northern Hemisphere to the south of Africa. These trips take place in the winter season, when the temperatures in the North fall and food supply drops. White storks, because of their large size, depend on the wind, thermals, and orographic characteristics of the environment in order to minimize their energy expenditure during flight. In particular, the birds adopt a soaring behavior in landscapes where the thermal uplift and orographic updrafts are conducive. By attaining suitable soaring heights, the birds then use the wind characteristics to glide for hundreds of kilometers. It is therefore expected that white storks would prefer landscapes that are characterized by suitable wind and thermal characteristics, which promote the soaring and gliding behaviors. However, these same landscapes are also potential sites for large-scale wind energy generation. In this study, we used the observed data of the white stork movement trajectories to specify a data-driven agent-based model, which simulates flight behavior of the white storks in a dynamic environment. The data on the wind characteristics and thermal uplift are dynamically changed on a daily basis so as to mimic the scenarios that the observed birds experienced during flight. The flight corridors that emerge from the simulated flights are then combined with the predicted surface on the wind energy potential, in order to highlight the potential risk of collision between the migratory white storks and hypothetical wind farms in the locations that are suitable for wind energy developments. This work provides methods that can be adopted to assess the overlap between wind energy potential and migratory corridors of the migration of birds. This can contribute to achieving sustainable trade-offs between wind energy development and conservation of wildlife and, hence, handling the

  18. A Gaussian mixture copula model based localized Gaussian process regression approach for long-term wind speed prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Jie; Chen, Kuilin; Mori, Junichi; Rashid, Mudassir M.

    2013-01-01

    Optimizing wind power generation and controlling the operation of wind turbines to efficiently harness the renewable wind energy is a challenging task due to the intermittency and unpredictable nature of wind speed, which has significant influence on wind power production. A new approach for long-term wind speed forecasting is developed in this study by integrating GMCM (Gaussian mixture copula model) and localized GPR (Gaussian process regression). The time series of wind speed is first classified into multiple non-Gaussian components through the Gaussian mixture copula model and then Bayesian inference strategy is employed to incorporate the various non-Gaussian components using the posterior probabilities. Further, the localized Gaussian process regression models corresponding to different non-Gaussian components are built to characterize the stochastic uncertainty and non-stationary seasonality of the wind speed data. The various localized GPR models are integrated through the posterior probabilities as the weightings so that a global predictive model is developed for the prediction of wind speed. The proposed GMCM–GPR approach is demonstrated using wind speed data from various wind farm locations and compared against the GMCM-based ARIMA (auto-regressive integrated moving average) and SVR (support vector regression) methods. In contrast to GMCM–ARIMA and GMCM–SVR methods, the proposed GMCM–GPR model is able to well characterize the multi-seasonality and uncertainty of wind speed series for accurate long-term prediction. - Highlights: • A novel predictive modeling method is proposed for long-term wind speed forecasting. • Gaussian mixture copula model is estimated to characterize the multi-seasonality. • Localized Gaussian process regression models can deal with the random uncertainty. • Multiple GPR models are integrated through Bayesian inference strategy. • The proposed approach shows higher prediction accuracy and reliability

  19. Short-term wind speed prediction using an unscented Kalman filter based state-space support vector regression approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Kuilin; Yu, Jie

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel hybrid modeling method is proposed for short-term wind speed forecasting. • Support vector regression model is constructed to formulate nonlinear state-space framework. • Unscented Kalman filter is adopted to recursively update states under random uncertainty. • The new SVR–UKF approach is compared to several conventional methods for short-term wind speed prediction. • The proposed method demonstrates higher prediction accuracy and reliability. - Abstract: Accurate wind speed forecasting is becoming increasingly important to improve and optimize renewable wind power generation. Particularly, reliable short-term wind speed prediction can enable model predictive control of wind turbines and real-time optimization of wind farm operation. However, this task remains challenging due to the strong stochastic nature and dynamic uncertainty of wind speed. In this study, unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is integrated with support vector regression (SVR) based state-space model in order to precisely update the short-term estimation of wind speed sequence. In the proposed SVR–UKF approach, support vector regression is first employed to formulate a nonlinear state-space model and then unscented Kalman filter is adopted to perform dynamic state estimation recursively on wind sequence with stochastic uncertainty. The novel SVR–UKF method is compared with artificial neural networks (ANNs), SVR, autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive integrated with Kalman filter (AR-Kalman) approaches for predicting short-term wind speed sequences collected from three sites in Massachusetts, USA. The forecasting results indicate that the proposed method has much better performance in both one-step-ahead and multi-step-ahead wind speed predictions than the other approaches across all the locations

  20. Experimental High-Resolution Land Surface Prediction System for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belair, S.; Bernier, N.; Tong, L.; Mailhot, J.

    2008-05-01

    The 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games will take place in Vancouver, Canada, from 12 to 28 February 2010 and from 12 to 21 March 2010, respectively. In order to provide the best possible guidance achievable with current state-of-the-art science and technology, Environment Canada is currently setting up an experimental numerical prediction system for these special events. This system consists of a 1-km limited-area atmospheric model that will be integrated for 16h, twice a day, with improved microphysics compared with the system currently operational at the Canadian Meteorological Centre. In addition, several new and original tools will be used to adapt and refine predictions near and at the surface. Very high-resolution two-dimensional surface systems, with 100-m and 20-m grid size, will cover the Vancouver Olympic area. Using adaptation methods to improve the forcing from the lower-resolution atmospheric models, these 2D surface models better represent surface processes, and thus lead to better predictions of snow conditions and near-surface air temperature. Based on a similar strategy, a single-point model will be implemented to better predict surface characteristics at each station of an observing network especially installed for the 2010 events. The main advantage of this single-point system is that surface observations are used as forcing for the land surface models, and can even be assimilated (although this is not expected in the first version of this new tool) to improve initial conditions of surface variables such as snow depth and surface temperatures. Another adaptation tool, based on 2D stationnary solutions of a simple dynamical system, will be used to produce near-surface winds on the 100-m grid, coherent with the high- resolution orography. The configuration of the experimental numerical prediction system will be presented at the conference, together with preliminary results for winter 2007-2008.

  1. Observations of the structure and evolution of surface and flight-level wind asymmetries in Hurricane Rita (2005)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Robert; Uhlhorn, Eric

    2008-11-01

    Knowledge of the magnitude and distribution of surface winds, including the structure of azimuthal asymmetries in the wind field, are important factors for tropical cyclone forecasting. With its ability to remotely measure surface wind speeds, the stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) has assumed a prominent role for the operational tropical cyclone forecasting community. An example of this instrument's utility is presented here, where concurrent measurements of aircraft flight-level and SFMR surface winds are used to document the wind field evolution over three days in Hurricane Rita (2005). The amplitude and azimuthal location (phase) of the wavenumber-1 asymmetry in the storm-relative winds varied at both levels over time. The peak was found to the right of storm track at both levels on the first day. By the third day, the peak in flight-level storm-relative winds remained to the right of storm track, but it shifted to left of storm track at the surface, resulting in a 60-degree shift between the surface and flight-level and azimuthal variations in the ratio of surface to flight-level winds. The asymmetric differences between the surface and flight-level maximum wind radii also varied, indicating a vortex whose tilt was increasing.

  2. Conceptions of Tornado Wind Speed and Land Surface Interactions among Undergraduate Students in Nebraska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Den Broeke, Matthew S.; Arthurs, Leilani

    2015-01-01

    To ascertain novice conceptions of tornado wind speed and the influence of surface characteristics on tornado occurrence, 613 undergraduate students enrolled in introductory science courses at a large state university in Nebraska were surveyed. Our findings show that students lack understanding of the fundamental concepts that (1) tornadoes are…

  3. Surface Wind Regionalization over Complex Terrain: Evaluation and Analysis of a High-Resolution WRF Simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiménez, P.A.; González-Rouco, J.F.; García-Bustamante, E.; Navarro, J.; Montávez, J.P.; Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, J.; Dudhia, J.; Muñoz-Roldan, A.

    2010-01-01

    This study analyzes the daily-mean surface wind variability over an area characterized by complex topography through comparing observations and a 2-km-spatial-resolution simulation performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the period 1992–2005. The evaluation focuses on the

  4. Vibration Analysis and Time Series Prediction for Wind Turbine Gearbox Prognostics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossam A. Gabbar

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Premature failure of a gearbox in a wind turbine poses a high risk of increasing the operational and maintenance costs and decreasing the profit margins. Prognostics and health management (PHM techniques are widely used to access the current health condition of the gearbox and project it in future to predict premature failures. This paper proposes such techniques for predicting gearbox health condition index extracted from the vibration signals emanating from the gearbox. The progression of the monitoring index is predicted using two different prediction techniques, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS and nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous inputs (NARX. The proposed prediction techniques are evaluated through sun-spot data-set and applied on vibration based health related monitoring index calculated through psychoacoustic phenomenon. A comparison is given for their prediction accuracy. The results are helpful in understanding the relationship of machine conditions, the corresponding indicating features, the level of damage/degradation, and their progression.

  5. Influence of glacial ice sheets on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation through surface wind change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherriff-Tadano, Sam; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Oka, Akira; Chan, Wing-Le

    2018-04-01

    Coupled modeling studies have recently shown that the existence of the glacial ice sheets intensifies the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, most models show a strong AMOC in their simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), which is biased compared to reconstructions that indicate both a weaker and stronger AMOC during the LGM. Therefore, a detailed investigation of the mechanism behind this intensification of the AMOC is important for a better understanding of the glacial climate and the LGM AMOC. Here, various numerical simulations are conducted to focus on the effect of wind changes due to glacial ice sheets on the AMOC and the crucial region where the wind modifies the AMOC. First, from atmospheric general circulation model experiments, the effect of glacial ice sheets on the surface wind is evaluated. Second, from ocean general circulation model experiments, the influence of the wind stress change on the AMOC is evaluated by applying wind stress anomalies regionally or at different magnitudes as a boundary condition. These experiments demonstrate that glacial ice sheets intensify the AMOC through an increase in the wind stress at the North Atlantic mid-latitudes, which is induced by the North American ice sheet. This intensification of the AMOC is caused by the increased oceanic horizontal and vertical transport of salt, while the change in sea ice transport has an opposite, though minor, effect. Experiments further show that the Eurasian ice sheet intensifies the AMOC by directly affecting the deep-water formation in the Norwegian Sea.

  6. Effect of wind turbine mortality on noctule bats in Sweden: predictions from a simple population model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rydell, Jens; Hedenstroem, Anders; Green, Martin

    2011-07-01

    Full text: The noctule bat Nyctalus noctula is apparently the species most seriously affected by wind turbine mortality in northern Europe. It occurs in south Sweden up to about 60oN, although the abundance is much higher in lowland agricultural areas than in forests. We used a recent estimate of 90 000 individuals as the population size in Sweden, and assumed a stable starting population not affected by mortality from wind turbines. In the absence of data from Sweden, we used demographic data and fatality rates at wind turbines (0.9 noctules/turbine/year) obtained in eastern Germany. Population development up to year 2020 was calculated, based on the current estimate of wind farm development in Sweden; ca. 1000 present and 2500 additional turbines within the area of noctule distribution. The results suggest that the additional mortality at wind turbines may affect the noctule bat in Sweden at the population level. However, the effect will probably be small, particularly in comparison with other anthropogenic sources. We are currently using the model to predict the effect on other bat species and birds. (Author)

  7. Are we near the predictability limit of tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Matthew; Sardeshmukh, Prashant D.

    2017-08-01

    The predictability of seasonal anomalies worldwide rests largely on the predictability of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Tropical forecast skill is also a key metric of climate models. We find, however, that despite extensive model development, the tropical SST forecast skill of the operational North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) of eight coupled atmosphere-ocean models remains close both regionally and temporally to that of a vastly simpler linear inverse model (LIM) derived from observed covariances of SST, sea surface height, and wind fields. The LIM clearly captures the essence of the predictable SST dynamics. The NMME and LIM skills also closely track and are only slightly lower than the potential skill estimated using the LIM's forecast signal-to-noise ratios. This suggests that the scope for further skill improvement is small in most regions, except in the western equatorial Pacific where the NMME skill is currently much lower than the LIM skill.

  8. WIND SPEED AND ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY TRENDS FOR SELECTED UNITED STATES SURFACE STATIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckley, R; Allen H. Weber, A

    2006-11-01

    Recently it has been suggested that global warming and a decrease in mean wind speeds over most land masses are related. Decreases in near surface wind speeds have been reported by previous investigators looking at records with time spans of 15 to 30 years. This study focuses on United States (US) surface stations that have little or no location change since the late 1940s or the 1950s--a time range of up to 58 years. Data were selected from 62 stations (24 of which had not changed location) and separated into ten groups for analysis. The group's annual averages of temperature, wind speed, and percentage of Pasquill-Gifford (PG) stability categories were fitted with linear least squares regression lines. The results showed that the temperatures have increased for eight of the ten groups as expected. Wind speeds have decreased for nine of the ten groups. The mean slope of the wind speed trend lines for stations within the coterminous US was -0.77 m s{sup -1} per century. The percentage frequency of occurrence for the neutral (D) PG stability category decreased, while that for the unstable (B) and the stable (F) categories increased in almost all cases except for the group of stations located in Alaska.

  9. An experimental study of the surface elevation probability distribution and statistics of wind-generated waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, N. E.; Long, S. R.

    1980-01-01

    Laboratory experiments were performed to measure the surface elevation probability density function and associated statistical properties for a wind-generated wave field. The laboratory data along with some limited field data were compared. The statistical properties of the surface elevation were processed for comparison with the results derived from the Longuet-Higgins (1963) theory. It is found that, even for the highly non-Gaussian cases, the distribution function proposed by Longuet-Higgins still gives good approximations.

  10. Energy Coordinative Optimization of Wind-Storage-Load Microgrids Based on Short-Term Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changbin Hu

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available According to the topological structure of wind-storage-load complementation microgrids, this paper proposes a method for energy coordinative optimization which focuses on improvement of the economic benefits of microgrids in the prediction framework. First of all, the external characteristic mathematical model of distributed generation (DG units including wind turbines and storage batteries are established according to the requirements of the actual constraints. Meanwhile, using the minimum consumption costs from the external grid as the objective function, a grey prediction model with residual modification is introduced to output the predictive wind turbine power and load at specific periods. Second, based on the basic framework of receding horizon optimization, an intelligent genetic algorithm (GA is applied to figure out the optimum solution in the predictive horizon for the complex non-linear coordination control model of microgrids. The optimum results of the GA are compared with the receding solution of mixed integer linear programming (MILP. The obtained results show that the method is a viable approach for energy coordinative optimization of microgrid systems for energy flow and reasonable schedule. The effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method is verified by examples.

  11. Wind Speed Prediction Using a Univariate ARIMA Model and a Multivariate NARX Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erasmo Cadenas

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Two on step ahead wind speed forecasting models were compared. A univariate model was developed using a linear autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA. This method’s performance is well studied for a large number of prediction problems. The other is a multivariate model developed using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (NARX. This uses the variables: barometric pressure, air temperature, wind direction and solar radiation or relative humidity, as well as delayed wind speed. Both models were developed from two databases from two sites: an hourly average measurements database from La Mata, Oaxaca, Mexico, and a ten minute average measurements database from Metepec, Hidalgo, Mexico. The main objective was to compare the impact of the various meteorological variables on the performance of the multivariate model of wind speed prediction with respect to the high performance univariate linear model. The NARX model gave better results with improvements on the ARIMA model of between 5.5% and 10. 6% for the hourly database and of between 2.3% and 12.8% for the ten minute database for mean absolute error and mean squared error, respectively.

  12. Short-term forecasting of thunderstorms at Kennedy Space Center, based on the surface wind field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Andrew I.; Lopez, Raul E.; Holle, Ronald L.; Daugherty, John R.; Ortiz, Robert

    1989-01-01

    Techniques incorporating wind convergence that can be used for the short-term prediction of thunderstorm development are described. With these techniques, the convergence signal is sensed by the wind network array 15 to 90 min before actual storm development. Particular attention is given to the convergence cell technique (which has been applied at the Kennedy Space Center) where each convective region is analyzed independently. It is noted that, while the monitoring of areal and cellular convergence can be used to help locate the seeds of developing thunderstorms and pinpoint the lightning threat areas, this forecasting aid cannot be used in isolation.

  13. Feature selection in wind speed prediction systems based on a hybrid coral reefs optimization – Extreme learning machine approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salcedo-Sanz, S.; Pastor-Sánchez, A.; Prieto, L.; Blanco-Aguilera, A.; García-Herrera, R.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel approach for short-term wind speed prediction is presented. • The system is formed by a coral reefs optimization algorithm and an extreme learning machine. • Feature selection is carried out with the CRO to improve the ELM performance. • The method is tested in real wind farm data in USA, for the period 2007–2008. - Abstract: This paper presents a novel approach for short-term wind speed prediction based on a Coral Reefs Optimization algorithm (CRO) and an Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), using meteorological predictive variables from a physical model (the Weather Research and Forecast model, WRF). The approach is based on a Feature Selection Problem (FSP) carried out with the CRO, that must obtain a reduced number of predictive variables out of the total available from the WRF. This set of features will be the input of an ELM, that finally provides the wind speed prediction. The CRO is a novel bio-inspired approach, based on the simulation of reef formation and coral reproduction, able to obtain excellent results in optimization problems. On the other hand, the ELM is a new paradigm in neural networks’ training, that provides a robust and extremely fast training of the network. Together, these algorithms are able to successfully solve this problem of feature selection in short-term wind speed prediction. Experiments in a real wind farm in the USA show the excellent performance of the CRO–ELM approach in this FSP wind speed prediction problem

  14. Practical use of offsite atmospheric measurements to enhance profitability of onsite wind prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collier, Craig [GL Garrad Hassan (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    This paper presents the use of offsite atmospheric measurements to improve the profitability of onsite wind prediction. There are two common sensitivities used, intraday and interday. Results from US mid-western sites show that the error associated with wind predictions is large but there are possibilities for improvement. Inter- and intraday can be used traditionally to contribute towards NWP bias correction. Intraday alone can be used with machine learning and NWP. These techniques are compared and given in order of ease of use and potential accuracy gains. Some considerations and differences for all three techniques, namely, traditional, data assimilation and machine learning are also detailed. An offsite selection matrix shows how elements like location, geography and telemetry rate in the 3 techniques. The experimental setup for all 3 techniques over a 3-month period is given and the results are presented. It can be concluded that the results from these simple experiments show promise but vary in method and time scale.

  15. Application of model predictive control for optimal operation of wind turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Yuan; Cao, Pei; Tang, J.

    2017-04-01

    For large-scale wind turbines, reducing maintenance cost is a major challenge. Model predictive control (MPC) is a promising approach to deal with multiple conflicting objectives using the weighed sum approach. In this research, model predictive control method is applied to wind turbine to find an optimal balance between multiple objectives, such as the energy capture, loads on turbine components, and the pitch actuator usage. The actuator constraints are integrated into the objective function at the control design stage. The analysis is carried out in both the partial load region and full load region, and the performances are compared with those of a baseline gain scheduling PID controller. The application of this strategy achieves enhanced balance of component loads, the average power and actuator usages in partial load region.

  16. Prediction of windings temperature rise in induction motors supplied with distorted voltage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gnacinski, P. [Gdynia Maritime University, Department of Ship Electrical Power Engineering, Morska Street 83, 81-225 Gdynia (Poland)

    2008-04-15

    One of the features of ship power systems is a different level and intensity of disturbances appearing during routine operation - the rms voltage value and frequency deviation, voltage unbalance and waveform voltage distortion. As a result, marine induction machines are exposed to overheating due to the lowered voltage quality. This paper is devoted to windings temperature rise prediction in marine induction cage machines supplied with distorted voltage, which means real voltage conditions. The proposed method of prediction does not require detailed knowledge of the thermal properties of a machine. Although the method was developed for marine induction motors, it is applicable for industry machines supplied with distorted voltage. It can also be generalized and used for estimation of the steady state windings temperature rise of any electrical machinery in various work conditions. (author)

  17. Prediction of windings temperature rise in induction motors supplied with distorted voltage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnacinski, P.

    2008-01-01

    One of the features of ship power systems is a different level and intensity of disturbances appearing during routine operation - the rms voltage value and frequency deviation, voltage unbalance and waveform voltage distortion. As a result, marine induction machines are exposed to overheating due to the lowered voltage quality. This paper is devoted to windings temperature rise prediction in marine induction cage machines supplied with distorted voltage, which means real voltage conditions. The proposed method of prediction does not require detailed knowledge of the thermal properties of a machine. Although the method was developed for marine induction motors, it is applicable for industry machines supplied with distorted voltage. It can also be generalized and used for estimation of the steady state windings temperature rise of any electrical machinery in various work conditions

  18. Model predictive control of trailing edge flaps on a wind turbine blade

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castaignet, D.B.

    2011-11-15

    Trailing edge flaps on wind turbine blades have been investigated for several years. Aero-servoelastic simulations carried out with different simulation tools, trailing edge flaps configurations and controller designs proved that trailing edge flaps are a suitable solution for reducing some of the wind turbine fatigue and extreme loads. This potential was confirmed with wind tunnel tests made on blade sections with trailing edge flaps and on a scaled two-bladed wind turbine in a wind tunnel. The work presented in this thesis includes a full-scale test run on a Vestas V27 wind turbine equipped with three trailing edge flaps on one blade, located on DTU's Risoe Campus in Roskilde, Denmark. This thesis is divided into three parts: the controller design, results from simulations, and results from the experiments. The trailing edge flaps controller designed for this project is based on a frequency-weighted model predictive control, tuned in order to target only the flapwise blade root loads at the frequencies contributing the most to blade root fatigue damage (the 1P, 2P and 3P frequencies), and to avoid unnecessary wear and tear of the actuators at high frequencies. A disturbance model consisting in periodic disturbances at the rotor speed harmonic frequencies and a quasi-steady input disturbance is aggregated to an analytical model of a spinning blade with trailing edge flaps. Simulations on a multi-megawatt wind turbine show the potential of the trailing edge flaps to reduce the flapwise blade root fatigue loads by 23%, but also the main shaft and the tower fatigue loads by up to 32%. Extreme loads during normal production also benefit from the trailing edge flaps. At last, the same controller was run on the Vestas V27 wind turbine located at the Risoe Campus of the Technical University of Denmark, in Roskilde, Denmark. One blade of the turbine was equipped with three independent trailing edge flaps. In spite of the failure of several sensors and actuators, the

  19. Prediction of Ductile Fracture Surface Roughness Scaling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Needleman, Alan; Tvergaard, Viggo; Bouchaud, Elisabeth

    2012-01-01

    . Ductile crack growth in a thin strip under mode I, overall plane strain, small scale yielding conditions is analyzed. Although overall plane strain loading conditions are prescribed, full 3D analyses are carried out to permit modeling of the three dimensional material microstructure and of the resulting......Experimental observations have shown that the roughness of fracture surfaces exhibit certain characteristic scaling properties. Here, calculations are carried out to explore the extent to which a ductile damage/fracture constitutive relation can be used to model fracture surface roughness scaling...... three dimensional stress and deformation states that develop in the fracture process region. An elastic-viscoplastic constitutive relation for a progressively cavitating plastic solid is used to model the material. Two populations of second phase particles are represented: large inclusions with low...

  20. Active Power Optimal Control of Wind Turbines with Doubly Fed Inductive Generators Based on Model Predictive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Jiuwang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Because of the randomness and fluctuation of wind energy, as well as the impact of strongly nonlinear characteristic of variable speed constant frequency (VSCF wind power generation system with doubly fed induction generators (DFIG, traditional active power control strategies are difficult to achieve high precision control and the output power of wind turbines is more fluctuated. In order to improve the quality of output electric energy of doubly fed wind turbines, on the basis of analyzing the operating principles and dynamic characteristics of doubly fed wind turbines, this paper proposes a new active power optimal control method of doubly fed wind turbines based on predictive control theory. This method uses state space model of wind turbines, based on the prediction of the future state of wind turbines, moves horizon optimization, and meanwhile, gets the control signals of pitch angle and generator torque. Simulation results show that the proposed control strategies can guarantee the utilization efficiency for wind energy. Simultaneously, they can improve operation stability of wind turbines and the quality of electric energy.

  1. A New Instrument for Testing Wind Erosion by Soil Surface Shape Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hai, C.; Yuan, X.; Jiang, H.; Zhou, R.; Wang, J.; Liu, B.; Ye, Y.; Du, P.

    2010-01-01

    Wind erosion, a primary cause of soil degeneration, is a problem in arid and semiarid areas throughout the world. Many methods are available to study soil erosion, but there is no an effective method for making quantitative measurements in the field. To solve this problem, we have developed a new instrument that can measure the change in the shape of the soil surface, allowing quick quantification of wind erosion. In this paper, the construction and principle of the new instrument are described. Field experiments are carried out using the instrument, and the data are analyzed. The erosion depth is found to vary by 11% compared to the average for measurement areas ranging from 30 x 30 cm 2 to 10 x 10 cm 2 . The results show that the instrument is convenient and reliable for quantitatively measuring wind erosion in the field.

  2. On the extension of the wind profile over homogeneous terrain beyond the surface boundary layer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gryning, Sven-Erik; Batchvarova, Ekaterina; Brümmer, B.

    2007-01-01

    -Obukhov similarity. Above the surface layer the second length scale (L-MBL ) becomes independent of height but not of stability, and at the top of the boundary layer the third length scale is assumed to be negligible. A simple model for the combined length scale that controls the wind profile and its stability...... dependence is formulated by inverse summation. Based on these assumptions the wind profile for the entire boundary layer is derived. A parameterization of L-MBL is formulated using the geostrophic drag law, which relates friction velocity and geostrophic wind. The empirical parameterization of the resistance...... law functions A and B in the geostrophic drag law is uncertain, making it impractical. Therefore an expression for the length scale, L-MBL , for applied use is suggested, based on measurements from the two sites....

  3. A review on the young history of the wind power short-term prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Costa, A.; Crespo, A.; Navarro, J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper makes a brief review on 30 years of history of the wind power short-term prediction, since the first ideas and sketches on the theme to the actual state of the art oil models and tools, giving emphasis to the most significant proposals and developments. The two principal lines of thought...... on short-term prediction (mathematical and physical) are indistinctly treated here and comparisons between models and tools are avoided, mainly because, on the one hand, a standard for a measure of performance is still not adopted and, on the other hand, it is very important that the data are exactly...

  4. Predicting hurricane wind damage by claim payout based on Hurricane Ike in Texas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Myong Kim

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The increasing occurrence of natural disasters and their related damage have led to a growing demand for models that predict financial loss. Although considerable research on the financial losses related to natural disasters has found significant predictors, there has been a lack of comprehensive study that addresses the relationship among vulnerabilities, natural disasters, and the economic losses of individual buildings. This study identifies the vulnerability indicators for hurricanes to establish a metric to predict the related financial loss. We classify hurricane-prone areas by highlighting the spatial distribution of losses and vulnerabilities. This study used a Geographical Information System (GIS to combine and produce spatial data and a multiple regression method to establish a wind damage prediction model. As the dependent variable, we used the value of the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association (TWIA claim payout divided by the appraised values of the buildings to predict real economic loss. As independent variables, we selected a hurricane indicator and built environment vulnerability indicators. The model we developed can be used by government agencies and insurance companies to predict hurricane wind damage.

  5. Intelligent and robust prediction of short term wind power using genetic programming based ensemble of neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zameer, Aneela; Arshad, Junaid; Khan, Asifullah; Raja, Muhammad Asif Zahoor

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Genetic programming based ensemble of neural networks is employed for short term wind power prediction. • Proposed predictor shows resilience against abrupt changes in weather. • Genetic programming evolves nonlinear mapping between meteorological measures and wind-power. • Proposed approach gives mathematical expressions of wind power to its independent variables. • Proposed model shows relatively accurate and steady wind-power prediction performance. - Abstract: The inherent instability of wind power production leads to critical problems for smooth power generation from wind turbines, which then requires an accurate forecast of wind power. In this study, an effective short term wind power prediction methodology is presented, which uses an intelligent ensemble regressor that comprises Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Programming. In contrast to existing series based combination of wind power predictors, whereby the error or variation in the leading predictor is propagated down the stream to the next predictors, the proposed intelligent ensemble predictor avoids this shortcoming by introducing Genetical Programming based semi-stochastic combination of neural networks. It is observed that the decision of the individual base regressors may vary due to the frequent and inherent fluctuations in the atmospheric conditions and thus meteorological properties. The novelty of the reported work lies in creating ensemble to generate an intelligent, collective and robust decision space and thereby avoiding large errors due to the sensitivity of the individual wind predictors. The proposed ensemble based regressor, Genetic Programming based ensemble of Artificial Neural Networks, has been implemented and tested on data taken from five different wind farms located in Europe. Obtained numerical results of the proposed model in terms of various error measures are compared with the recent artificial intelligence based strategies to demonstrate the

  6. Robust Prediction of High Lift Using Surface Vorticity, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — FlightStream has been developed a fast, accurate, aerodynamic prediction code based on vorticity computations on the surface of an aircraft. The code, though still a...

  7. Short-term load and wind power forecasting using neural network-based prediction intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

    2014-02-01

    Electrical power systems are evolving from today's centralized bulk systems to more decentralized systems. Penetrations of renewable energies, such as wind and solar power, significantly increase the level of uncertainty in power systems. Accurate load forecasting becomes more complex, yet more important for management of power systems. Traditional methods for generating point forecasts of load demands cannot properly handle uncertainties in system operations. To quantify potential uncertainties associated with forecasts, this paper implements a neural network (NN)-based method for the construction of prediction intervals (PIs). A newly introduced method, called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE), is applied and extended to develop PIs using NN models. A new problem formulation is proposed, which translates the primary multiobjective problem into a constrained single-objective problem. Compared with the cost function, this new formulation is closer to the primary problem and has fewer parameters. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) integrated with the mutation operator is used to solve the problem. Electrical demands from Singapore and New South Wales (Australia), as well as wind power generation from Capital Wind Farm, are used to validate the PSO-based LUBE method. Comparative results show that the proposed method can construct higher quality PIs for load and wind power generation forecasts in a short time.

  8. Pressure integration technique for predicting wind-induced response in high-rise buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aly Mousaad Aly

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a procedure for response prediction in high-rise buildings under wind loads. The procedure is illustrated in an application example of a tall building exposed to both cross-wind and along-wind loads. The responses of the building in the lateral directions combined with torsion are estimated simultaneously. Results show good agreement with recent design standards; however, the proposed procedure has the advantages of accounting for complex mode shapes, non-uniform mass distribution, and interference effects from the surrounding. In addition, the technique allows for the contribution of higher modes. For accurate estimation of the acceleration response, it is important to consider not only the first two lateral vibrational modes, but also higher modes. Ignoring the contribution of higher modes may lead to underestimation of the acceleration response; on the other hand, it could result in overestimation of the displacement response. Furthermore, the procedure presented in this study can help decision makers, involved in a tall building design/retrofit to choose among innovative solutions like aerodynamic mitigation, structural member size adjustment, damping enhancement, and/or materials change, with an objective to improve the resiliency and the serviceability under extreme wind actions.

  9. Predicting wind-induced vibrations of high-rise buildings using unsteady CFD and modal analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Yue

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the wind-induced vibration of the CAARC standard tall building model, via unsteady Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and a structural modal analysis. In this numerical procedure, the natural unsteady wind in the atmospheric boundary layer is modeled with an artificial inflow turbulence generation method. Then, the turbulent flow is simulated by the second mode of a Zonal Detached-Eddy Simulation, and a conservative quadrature-projection scheme is adopted to transfer unsteady loads from fluid to structural nodes. The aerodynamic damping that represents the fluid-structure interaction mechanism is determined by empirical functions extracted from wind tunnel experiments. Eventually, the flow solutions and the structural responses in terms of mean and root mean square quantities are compared with experimental measurements, over a wide range of reduced velocities. The significance of turbulent inflow conditions and aeroelastic effects is highlighted. The current methodology provides predictions of good accuracy and can be considered as a preliminary design tool to evaluate the unsteady wind effects on tall buildings.

  10. Sea surface wind perturbations over the Kashevarov Bank of the Okhotsk Sea: a satellite study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. I. Tarkhova

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Sea surface wind perturbations over sea surface temperature (SST cold anomalies over the Kashevarov Bank (KB of the Okhotsk Sea are analyzed using satellite (AMSR-E and QuikSCAT data during the summer-autumn period of 2006–2009. It is shown, that frequency of cases of wind speed decreasing over a cold spot in August–September reaches up to 67%. In the cold spot center SST cold anomalies reached 10.5 °C and wind speed lowered down to ~7 m s−1 relative its value on the periphery. The wind difference between a periphery and a centre of the cold spot is proportional to SST difference with the correlations 0.5 for daily satellite passes data, 0.66 for 3-day mean data and 0.9 for monthly ones. For all types of data the coefficient of proportionality consists of ~0.3 m s−1 on 1 °C.

  11. Improving Wind Farm Dispatchability Using Model Predictive Control for Optimal Operation of Grid-Scale Energy Storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas Halamay

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper demonstrates the use of model-based predictive control for energy storage systems to improve the dispatchability of wind power plants. Large-scale wind penetration increases the variability of power flow on the grid, thus increasing reserve requirements. Large energy storage systems collocated with wind farms can improve dispatchability of the wind plant by storing energy during generation over-the-schedule and sourcing energy during generation under-the-schedule, essentially providing on-site reserves. Model predictive control (MPC provides a natural framework for this application. By utilizing an accurate energy storage system model, control actions can be planned in the context of system power and state-of-charge limitations. MPC also enables the inclusion of predicted wind farm performance over a near-term horizon that allows control actions to be planned in anticipation of fast changes, such as wind ramps. This paper demonstrates that model-based predictive control can improve system performance compared with a standard non-predictive, non-model-based control approach. It is also demonstrated that secondary objectives, such as reducing the rate of change of the wind plant output (i.e., ramps, can be considered and successfully implemented within the MPC framework. Specifically, it is shown that scheduling error can be reduced by 81%, reserve requirements can be improved by up to 37%, and the number of ramp events can be reduced by 74%.

  12. Optimal Active Power Control of A Wind Farm Equipped with Energy Storage System based on Distributed Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei; Guo, Qinglai

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the Distributed Model Predictive Control (D-MPC) of a wind farm equipped with fast and short-term Energy Storage System (ESS) for optimal active power control using the fast gradient method via dual decomposition. The primary objective of the D-MPC control of the wind farm...... is power reference tracking from system operators. Besides, by optimal distribution of the power references to individual wind turbines and the ESS unit, the wind turbine mechanical loads are alleviated. With the fast gradient method, the convergence rate of the DMPC is significantly improved which leads...

  13. On-Line Flutter Prediction Tool for Wind Tunnel Flutter Testing using Parameter Varying Estimation Methodology, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ZONA Technology, Inc. (ZONA) proposes to develop an on-line flutter prediction tool for wind tunnel model using the parameter varying estimation (PVE) technique to...

  14. Current error vector based prediction control of the section winding permanent magnet linear synchronous motor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong Junjie, E-mail: hongjjie@mail.sysu.edu.cn [School of Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510006 (China); Li Liyi, E-mail: liliyi@hit.edu.cn [Dept. Electrical Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150000 (China); Zong Zhijian; Liu Zhongtu [School of Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510006 (China)

    2011-10-15

    Highlights: {yields} The structure of the permanent magnet linear synchronous motor (SW-PMLSM) is new. {yields} A new current control method CEVPC is employed in this motor. {yields} The sectional power supply method is different to the others and effective. {yields} The performance gets worse with voltage and current limitations. - Abstract: To include features such as greater thrust density, higher efficiency without reducing the thrust stability, this paper proposes a section winding permanent magnet linear synchronous motor (SW-PMLSM), whose iron core is continuous, whereas winding is divided. The discrete system model of the motor is derived. With the definition of the current error vector and selection of the value function, the theory of the current error vector based prediction control (CEVPC) for the motor currents is explained clearly. According to the winding section feature, the motion region of the mover is divided into five zones, in which the implementation of the current predictive control method is proposed. Finally, the experimental platform is constructed and experiments are carried out. The results show: the current control effect has good dynamic response, and the thrust on the mover remains constant basically.

  15. Using Deep Learning to Predict Complex Systems: A Case Study in Wind Farm Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Torres

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Making every component of an electrical system work in unison is being made more challenging by the increasing number of renewable energies used, the electrical output of which is difficult to determine beforehand. In Spain, the daily electricity market opens with a 12-hour lead time, where the supply and demand expected for the following 24 hours are presented. When estimating the generation, energy sources like nuclear are highly stable, while peaking power plants can be run as necessary. Renewable energies, however, which should eventually replace peakers insofar as possible, are reliant on meteorological conditions. In this paper we propose using different deep-learning techniques and architectures to solve the problem of predicting wind generation in order to participate in the daily market, by making predictions 12 and 36 hours in advance. We develop and compare various estimators based on feedforward, convolutional, and recurrent neural networks. These estimators were trained and validated with data from a wind farm located on the island of Tenerife. We show that the best candidates for each type are more precise than the reference estimator and the polynomial regression currently used at the wind farm. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis to determine which estimator type is most robust to perturbations. An analysis of our findings shows that the most accurate and robust estimators are those based on feedforward neural networks with a SELU activation function and convolutional neural networks.

  16. Changes in terrestrial near-surface wind speed and their possible causes: an overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jian; Zha, Jinlin; Zhao, Deming; Yang, Qidong

    2017-11-01

    Changes in terrestrial near-surface wind speed (SWS) are induced by a combination of anthropogenic activities and natural climate changes. Thus, the study of the long-term changes of SWS and their causes is very important for recognizing the effects of these processes. Although the slowdown in SWS has been analyzed in previous studies, to the best of knowledge, no overall comparison or detailed examination of this research has been performed. Similarly, the causes of the decreases in SWS and the best directions of future research have not been discussed in depth. Therefore, we analyzed a series of studies reporting SWS trends spanning the last 30 years from around the world. The changes in SWS differ among different regions. The most significant decreases have occurred in Central Asia and North America, with mean linear trends of - 0.11 m s-1 decade-1; the second most significant decreases have occurred in Europe, East Asia, and South Asia, with mean linear trends of - 0.08 m s-1 decade-1; and the weakest decrease has occurred in Australia. Although the SWS in Africa has decreased, this region lacks long-term observational data. Therefore, the uncertainties in the long-term SWS trend are higher in this region than in other regions. The changes in SWS, caused by a mixture of global-, regional-, and local-scale factors, are mainly due to changes in driving forces and drag forces. The changes in the driving forces are caused by changes in atmospheric circulation, and the changes in the drag forces are caused by changes in the external and internal friction in the atmosphere. Changes in surface friction are mainly caused by changes in the surface roughness due to land use and cover change (LUCC), including urbanization, and changes in internal friction are mainly induced by changes in the boundary layer characteristics. Future studies should compare the spatio-temporal differences in SWS between high and low altitudes and quantify the effects of different factors on

  17. The prediction of BRDFs from surface profile measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Church, E.L.; Takacs, P.Z.; Leonard, T.A.

    1989-01-01

    This paper discusses methods of predicting the BRDF of smooth surfaces from profile measurements of their surface finish. The conversion of optical profile data to the BRDF at the same wavelength is essentially independent of scattering models, while the conversion of mechanical measurements, and wavelength scaling in general, are model dependent. Procedures are illustrated for several surfaces, including two from the recent HeNe BRDF round robin, and results are compared with measured data. Reasonable agreement is found except for surfaces which involve significant scattering from isolated surface defects which are poorly sampled in the profile data

  18. Predictive control strategies for wind turbine system based on permanent magnet synchronous generator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maaoui-Ben Hassine, Ikram; Naouar, Mohamed Wissem; Mrabet-Bellaaj, Najiba

    2016-05-01

    In this paper, Model Predictive Control and Dead-beat predictive control strategies are proposed for the control of a PMSG based wind energy system. The proposed MPC considers the model of the converter-based system to forecast the possible future behavior of the controlled variables. It allows selecting the voltage vector to be applied that leads to a minimum error by minimizing a predefined cost function. The main features of the MPC are low current THD and robustness against parameters variations. The Dead-beat predictive control is based on the system model to compute the optimum voltage vector that ensures zero-steady state error. The optimum voltage vector is then applied through Space Vector Modulation (SVM) technique. The main advantages of the Dead-beat predictive control are low current THD and constant switching frequency. The proposed control techniques are presented and detailed for the control of back-to-back converter in a wind turbine system based on PMSG. Simulation results (under Matlab-Simulink software environment tool) and experimental results (under developed prototyping platform) are presented in order to show the performances of the considered control strategies. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Numerical Prediction for the Size and Shape of a Flare in a Cross–Wind

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Vicente y Rodríguez

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available A computational fluid–dynamics model is used to simulate the turbulent combustion in a flare exposed to a cross–wind. Our research is mostly focused on the cross flow velocity influence to flame aerodynamics. The flow simulation is performed as three dimensional along a Cartesian coordinates system. In order to simulate the combustion process, a fast–chemistry model with a 1–step global irreversible reaction to form CO2 and H2O is used. A radiation model is used to identify the mean flame trajectory. The simulated configuration consists in a propane discharge into an air stream, get ting oxygen supply from the cross–wind. The velocity of this cross–flow is increased from 0.8 m/s to 12 m/s. Comparative analysis of our predicted values with respect to available experimental results shows good agreement in terms of flame length as well as inclination angles.

  20. Real time simulation of nonlinear generalized predictive control for wind energy conversion system with nonlinear observer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouari, Kamel; Rekioua, Toufik; Ouhrouche, Mohand

    2014-01-01

    In order to make a wind power generation truly cost-effective and reliable, an advanced control techniques must be used. In this paper, we develop a new control strategy, using nonlinear generalized predictive control (NGPC) approach, for DFIG-based wind turbine. The proposed control law is based on two points: NGPC-based torque-current control loop generating the rotor reference voltage and NGPC-based speed control loop that provides the torque reference. In order to enhance the robustness of the controller, a disturbance observer is designed to estimate the aerodynamic torque which is considered as an unknown perturbation. Finally, a real-time simulation is carried out to illustrate the performance of the proposed controller. Copyright © 2013 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Numerical Predictions of Wind Turbine Power and Aerodynamic Loads for the NREL Phase II and IV Combined Experiment Rotor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duque, Earl P. N.; Johnson, Wayne; vanDam, C. P.; Chao, David D.; Cortes, Regina; Yee, Karen

    1999-01-01

    Accurate, reliable and robust numerical predictions of wind turbine rotor power remain a challenge to the wind energy industry. The literature reports various methods that compare predictions to experiments. The methods vary from Blade Element Momentum Theory (BEM), Vortex Lattice (VL), to variants of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RaNS). The BEM and VL methods consistently show discrepancies in predicting rotor power at higher wind speeds mainly due to inadequacies with inboard stall and stall delay models. The RaNS methodologies show promise in predicting blade stall. However, inaccurate rotor vortex wake convection, boundary layer turbulence modeling and grid resolution has limited their accuracy. In addition, the inherently unsteady stalled flow conditions become computationally expensive for even the best endowed research labs. Although numerical power predictions have been compared to experiment. The availability of good wind turbine data sufficient for code validation experimental data that has been extracted from the IEA Annex XIV download site for the NREL Combined Experiment phase II and phase IV rotor. In addition, the comparisons will show data that has been further reduced into steady wind and zero yaw conditions suitable for comparisons to "steady wind" rotor power predictions. In summary, the paper will present and discuss the capabilities and limitations of the three numerical methods and make available a database of experimental data suitable to help other numerical methods practitioners validate their own work.

  2. Coupling a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model with Large-Eddy Simulation for Realistic Wind Plant Aerodynamics Simulations (Poster)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Draxl, C.; Churchfield, M.; Mirocha, J.; Lee, S.; Lundquist, J.; Michalakes, J.; Moriarty, P.; Purkayastha, A.; Sprague, M.; Vanderwende, B.

    2014-06-01

    Wind plant aerodynamics are influenced by a combination of microscale and mesoscale phenomena. Incorporating mesoscale atmospheric forcing (e.g., diurnal cycles and frontal passages) into wind plant simulations can lead to a more accurate representation of microscale flows, aerodynamics, and wind turbine/plant performance. Our goal is to couple a numerical weather prediction model that can represent mesoscale flow [specifically the Weather Research and Forecasting model] with a microscale LES model (OpenFOAM) that can predict microscale turbulence and wake losses.

  3. A wind tunnel study of flows over idealised urban surfaces with roughness sublayer corrections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Yat-Kiu; Liu, Chun-Ho

    2017-10-01

    Dynamics in the roughness (RSLs) and inertial (ISLs) sublayers in the turbulent boundary layers (TBLs) over idealised urban surfaces are investigated analytically and experimentally. In this paper, we derive an analytical solution to the mean velocity profile, which is a continuous function applicable to both RSL and ISL, over rough surfaces in isothermal conditions. Afterwards, a modified mixing-length model for RSL/ISL transport is developed that elucidates how surface roughness affects the turbulence motions. A series of wind tunnel experiments are conducted to measure the vertical profiles of mean and fluctuating velocities, together with momentum flux over various configurations of surface-mounted ribs in cross flows using hot-wire anemometry (HWA). The analytical solution agrees well with the wind tunnel result that improves the estimate to mean velocity profile over urban surfaces and TBL dynamics as well. The thicknesses of RSL and ISL are calculated by monitoring the convergence/divergence between the temporally averaged and spatio-temporally averaged profiles of momentum flux. It is found that the height of RSL/ISL interface is a function of surface roughness. Examining the direct, physical influence of roughness elements on near-surface RSL flows reveals that the TBL flows over rough surfaces exhibit turbulence motions of two different length scales which are functions of the RSL and ISL structure. Conclusively, given a TBL, the rougher the surface, the higher is the RSL intruding upward that would thinner the ISL up to 50 %. Therefore, the conventional ISL log-law approximation to TBL flows over urban surfaces should be applied with caution.

  4. Gain-Scheduled Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines using Laguerre Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adegas, Fabiano Daher; Wisniewski, Rafal; Larsen, Lars Finn Sloth

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a systematic approach to design gain-scheduled predictive controllers for wind turbines. The predictive control law is based on Laguerre functions to parameterize control signals and a parameter-dependent cost function that is analytically determined from turbine data....... These properties facilitate the design of speed controllers by placement of the closed-loop poles (when constraints are not active) and systematic adaptation towards changes in the operating point. Vibration control of undamped modes is achieved by imposing a certain degree of stability to the closed-loop system....... The approach can be utilized to the design of new controllers and to represent existing gain-scheduled controllers as predictive controllers. The numerical example and simulations illustrate the design of a speed controller augmented with active damping of the tower fore-aft displacement....

  5. A probability index for surface zonda wind occurrence at Mendoza city through vertical sounding principal components analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otero, Federico; Norte, Federico; Araneo, Diego

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this work is to obtain an index for predicting the probability of occurrence of zonda event at surface level from sounding data at Mendoza city, Argentine. To accomplish this goal, surface zonda wind events were previously found with an objective classification method (OCM) only considering the surface station values. Once obtained the dates and the onset time of each event, the prior closest sounding for each event was taken to realize a principal component analysis (PCA) that is used to identify the leading patterns of the vertical structure of the atmosphere previously to a zonda wind event. These components were used to construct the index model. For the PCA an entry matrix of temperature ( T) and dew point temperature (Td) anomalies for the standard levels between 850 and 300 hPa was build. The analysis yielded six significant components with a 94 % of the variance explained and the leading patterns of favorable weather conditions for the development of the phenomenon were obtained. A zonda/non-zonda indicator c can be estimated by a logistic multiple regressions depending on the PCA component loadings, determining a zonda probability index \\widehat{c} calculable from T and Td profiles and it depends on the climatological features of the region. The index showed 74.7 % efficiency. The same analysis was performed by adding surface values of T and Td from Mendoza Aero station increasing the index efficiency to 87.8 %. The results revealed four significantly correlated PCs with a major improvement in differentiating zonda cases and a reducing of the uncertainty interval.

  6. Short term prediction of the horizontal wind vector within a wake vortex warning system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frech, M.; Holzaepfel, F.; Gerz, T. [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Wessling (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Konopka, J. [Deutsche Flugsicherung (DFS) GmbH, Langen (Germany)

    2000-07-14

    A wake vortex warning system (WVWS) has been developed for Frankfurt airport. This airport has two parallel runways which are separated by 518 m, a distance too short to operate them independently because wake vortices may be advected to the adjacent runway. The objective of the WVWS is to enable operation with reduced separation between two aircraft approaching the parallel runways at appropriate wind conditions. The WVWS applies a statistical persistence model to predict the crosswind within a 20 minute period. One of the main problems identified in the old WVWS are discontinuities between successive forecasts. These forecast breakdowns were not acceptable to airtraffic controllers. At least part of the problem was related to the fact that the forecast was solely based on the prediction of crosswind. A new method is developed on the basis of 523 days of sonic anemometer measurements at Frankfurt airport. It is demonstrated that the prediction of the horizontal wind vector avoids these difficulties and significantly improves the system's performance. (orig.)

  7. Frequency-Weighted Model Predictive Control of Trailing Edge Flaps on a Wind Turbine Blade

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Castaignet, Damien; Couchman, Ian; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2013-01-01

    flapwise blade root moment and trailing edge flap deflection. Frequency-weighted MPC is chosen for its ability to handle constraints on the trailing edge flaps deflection, and to target at loads with given frequencies only. The controller is first tested in servo-aeroelastic simulations, before being......This paper presents the load reduction achieved with trailing edge flaps during a full-scale test on a Vestas V27 wind turbine. The trailing edge flap controller is a frequency-weighted linear model predictive control (MPC) where the quadratic cost consists of costs on the zero-phase filtered...

  8. Method of predicting surface deformation in the form of sinkholes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chudek, M.; Arkuszewski, J.

    1980-06-01

    Proposes a method for predicting probability of sinkhole shaped subsidence, number of funnel-shaped subsidences and size of individual funnels. The following factors which influence the sudden subsidence of the surface in the form of funnels are analyzed: geologic structure of the strata between mining workings and the surface, mining depth, time factor, and geologic disolocations. Sudden surface subsidence is observed only in the case of workings situated up to a few dozen meters from the surface. Using the proposed method is explained with some examples. It is suggested that the method produces correct results which can be used in coal mining and in ore mining. (1 ref.) (In Polish)

  9. High resolution modelling of wind fields for optimization of empirical storm flood predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brecht, B.; Frank, H.

    2014-05-01

    High resolution wind fields are necessary to predict the occurrence of storm flood events and their magnitude. Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) created a catalogue of detailed wind fields of 39 historical storms at the German North Sea coast from the years 1962 to 2011. The catalogue is used by the Niedersächsisches Landesamt für Wasser-, Küsten- und Naturschutz (NLWKN) coastal research center to improve their flood alert service. The computation of wind fields and other meteorological parameters is based on the model chain of the DWD going from the global model GME via the limited-area model COSMO with 7 km mesh size down to a COSMO model with 2.2 km. To obtain an improved analysis COSMO runs are nudged against observations for the historical storms. The global model GME is initialised from the ERA reanalysis data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). As expected, we got better congruency with observations of the model for the nudging runs than the normal forecast runs for most storms. We also found during the verification process that different land use data sets could influence the results considerably.

  10. Loading Analysis of Composite Wind Turbine Blade for Fatigue Life Prediction of Adhesively Bonded Root Joint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salimi-Majd, Davood; Azimzadeh, Vahid; Mohammadi, Bijan

    2015-06-01

    Nowadays wind energy is widely used as a non-polluting cost-effective renewable energy resource. During the lifetime of a composite wind turbine which is about 20 years, the rotor blades are subjected to different cyclic loads such as aerodynamics, centrifugal and gravitational forces. These loading conditions, cause to fatigue failure of the blade at the adhesively bonded root joint, where the highest bending moments will occur and consequently, is the most critical zone of the blade. So it is important to estimate the fatigue life of the root joint. The cohesive zone model is one of the best methods for prediction of initiation and propagation of debonding at the root joint. The advantage of this method is the possibility of modeling the debonding without any requirement to the remeshing. However in order to use this approach, it is necessary to analyze the cyclic loading condition at the root joint. For this purpose after implementing a cohesive interface element in the Ansys finite element software, one blade of a horizontal axis wind turbine with 46 m rotor diameter was modelled in full scale. Then after applying loads on the blade under different condition of the blade in a full rotation, the critical condition of the blade is obtained based on the delamination index and also the load ratio on the root joint in fatigue cycles is calculated. These data are the inputs for fatigue damage growth analysis of the root joint by using CZM approach that will be investigated in future work.

  11. NOAA high resolution sea surface winds data from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) on the Sentinel-1 satellites

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set consists of high resolution sea surface winds data produced from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) on board Sentinel-1A and Sentinel-1B satellites. This...

  12. Effects of nearby surface features on wind speed at a nuclear plant meteorological station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, N.A.; Goodwin, R.J.; Pittman, D.E.

    1984-01-01

    There is a definite cause and effect relationship between the trees in the vicinity of the meteorological tower and the wind speed at the 10-meter level on the meteorological tower. For the affected directions, horizontal wind speed is significantly reduced below what it would be for that level if the trees were not present. This effect is only slightly less for the 10:1 exposure achieved with the 1977 tree clearing, which illustrates that meeting this commonly accepted distance to height ratio does not assure representativeness of 10-meter data collected at a nuclear plant site. The somewhat stronger effect for winds from the south through southwest directions may be partly attributable to the abrupt change in roughness and elevation encountered by air moving at an angle or directly across the reservoir, which is 3.5 to 5.0 kilometers wide at this site. This general reduction in wind speed values below what would be expected at the plant location will result in biased dispersion estimates. Calculated relative concentration values for releases treated as ground-level or building-wake releases would be larger than actual concentrations. While this would provide conservative concentration values, radioactive plume transport calculations would be nonconservative. The calculated, or predicted, transport rate would be slower than the actual transport rate. Such local biases affecting the spatial representativeness of airflow at 10 meters are a primary reason for TVA's decision to use 46-meter wind data for ground-level transport and diffusion modeling in its radiological emergency preparedness program

  13. Solar wind: A possible factor driving the interannual sea surface temperature tripolar mode over North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Ziniu; Li, Delin

    2016-06-01

    The effect of solar wind (SW) on the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) in boreal winter is examined through an analysis of observational data during 1964-2013. The North Atlantic SSTs show a pronounced meridional tripolar pattern in response to solar wind speed (SWS) variations. This pattern is broadly similar to the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of interannual variations in the wintertime SSTs over North Atlantic. The time series of this leading EOF mode of SST shows a significant interannual period, which is the same as that of wintertime SWS. This response also appears as a compact north-south seesaw of sea level pressure and a vertical tripolar structure of zonal wind, which simultaneously resembles the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the overlying atmosphere. As compared with the typical low SWS winters, during the typical high SWS winters, the stratospheric polar night jet (PNJ) is evidently enhanced and extends from the stratosphere to the troposphere, even down to the North Atlantic Ocean surface. Notably, the North Atlantic Ocean is an exclusive region in which the SW signal spreads downward from the stratosphere to the troposphere. Thus, it seems that the SW is a possible factor for this North Atlantic SST tripolar mode. The dynamical process of stratosphere-troposphere coupling, together with the global atmospheric electric circuit-cloud microphysical process, probably accounts for the particular downward propagation of the SW signal.

  14. Protection of surface assets on Mars from wind blown jettisoned spacecraft components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paton, Mark

    2017-07-01

    Jettisoned Entry, Descent and Landing System (EDLS) hardware from landing spacecraft have been observed by orbiting spacecraft, strewn over the Martian surface. Future Mars missions that land spacecraft close to prelanded assets will have to use a landing architecture that somehow minimises the possibility of impacts from these jettisoned EDLS components. Computer modelling is used here to investigate the influence of wind speed and direction on the distribution of EDLS components on the surface. Typical wind speeds encountered in the Martian Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) were found to be of sufficient strength to blow items having a low ballistic coefficient, i.e. Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerators (HIADs) or parachutes, onto prelanded assets even when the lander itself touches down several kilometres away. Employing meteorological measurements and careful characterisation of the Martian PBL, e.g. appropriate wind speed probability density functions, may then benefit future spacecraft landings, increase safety and possibly help reduce the delta v budget for Mars landers that rely on aerodynamic decelerators.

  15. Mapping near-surface air temperature, pressure, relative humidity and wind speed over Mainland China with high spatiotemporal resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tao; Zheng, Xiaogu; Dai, Yongjiu; Yang, Chi; Chen, Zhuoqi; Zhang, Shupeng; Wu, Guocan; Wang, Zhonglei; Huang, Chengcheng; Shen, Yan; Liao, Rongwei

    2014-09-01

    As part of a joint effort to construct an atmospheric forcing dataset for mainland China with high spatiotemporal resolution, a new approach is proposed to construct gridded near-surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and surface pressure with a resolution of 1 km×1 km. The approach comprises two steps: (1) fit a partial thin-plate smoothing spline with orography and reanalysis data as explanatory variables to ground-based observations for estimating a trend surface; (2) apply a simple kriging procedure to the residual for trend surface correction. The proposed approach is applied to observations collected at approximately 700 stations over mainland China. The generated forcing fields are compared with the corresponding components of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset and the Princeton meteorological forcing dataset. The comparison shows that, both within the station network and within the resolutions of the two gridded datasets, the interpolation errors of the proposed approach are markedly smaller than the two gridded datasets.

  16. Drivers and seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds in the ECMWF System 4 and a statistical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walz, M. A.; Donat, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.

    2017-12-01

    As extreme wind speeds are responsible for large socio-economic losses in Europe, a skillful prediction would be of great benefit for disaster prevention as well as for the actuarial community. Here we evaluate patterns of large-scale atmospheric variability and the seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds (e.g. >95th percentile) in the European domain in the dynamical seasonal forecast system ECMWF System 4, and compare to the predictability based on a statistical prediction model. The dominant patterns of atmospheric variability show distinct differences between reanalysis and ECMWF System 4, with most patterns in System 4 extended downstream in comparison to ERA-Interim. The dissimilar manifestations of the patterns within the two models lead to substantially different drivers associated with the occurrence of extreme winds in the respective model. While the ECMWF System 4 is shown to provide some predictive power over Scandinavia and the eastern Atlantic, only very few grid cells in the European domain have significant correlations for extreme wind speeds in System 4 compared to ERA-Interim. In contrast, a statistical model predicts extreme wind speeds during boreal winter in better agreement with the observations. Our results suggest that System 4 does not seem to capture the potential predictability of extreme winds that exists in the real world, and therefore fails to provide reliable seasonal predictions for lead months 2-4. This is likely related to the unrealistic representation of large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability. Hence our study points to potential improvements of dynamical prediction skill by improving the simulation of large-scale atmospheric dynamics.

  17. Predicting Surface Runoff from Catchment to Large Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongxia Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Predicting surface runoff from catchment to large region is a fundamental and challenging task in hydrology. This paper presents a comprehensive review for various studies conducted for improving runoff predictions from catchment to large region in the last several decades. This review summarizes the well-established methods and discusses some promising approaches from the following four research fields: (1 modeling catchment, regional and global runoff using lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff models, distributed hydrological models, and land surface models, (2 parameterizing hydrological models in ungauged catchments, (3 improving hydrological model structure, and (4 using new remote sensing precipitation data.

  18. Improved Modeling and Prediction of Surface Wave Amplitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-31

    AFRL-RV-PS- AFRL-RV-PS- TR-2017-0162 TR-2017-0162 IMPROVED MODELING AND PREDICTION OF SURFACE WAVE AMPLITUDES Jeffry L. Stevens, et al. Leidos...data does not license the holder or any other person or corporation; or convey any rights or permission to manufacture, use, or sell any patented...SUBTITLE Improved Modeling and Prediction of Surface Wave Amplitudes 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER FA9453-14-C-0225 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER

  19. Wind directions predicted from global circulation models and wind directions determined from eolian sandstones of the western United States-A comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrish, Judith T.; Peterson, F.

    1988-01-01

    Wind directions for Middle Pennsylvanian through Jurassic time are predicted from global circulation models for the western United States. These predictions are compared with paleowind directions interpreted from eolian sandstones of Middle Pennsylvanian through Jurassic age. Predicted regional wind directions correspond with at least three-quarters of the paleowind data from the sandstones; the rest of the data may indicate problems with correlation, local effects of paleogeography on winds, and lack of resolution of the circulation models. The data and predictions suggest the following paleoclimatic developments through the time interval studied: predominance of winter subtropical high-pressure circulation in the Late Pennsylvanian; predominance of summer subtropical high-pressure circulation in the Permian; predominance of summer monsoonal circulation in the Triassic and earliest Jurassic; and, during the remainder of the Jurassic, influence of both summer subtropical and summer monsoonal circulation, with the boundary between the two systems over the western United States. This sequence of climatic changes is largely owing to paleogeographic changes, which influenced the buildup and breakdown of the monsoonal circulation, and possibly owing partly to a decrease in the global temperature gradient, which might have lessened the influence of the subtropical high-pressure circulation. The atypical humidity of Triassic time probably resulted from the monsoonal circulation created by the geography of Pangaea. This circulation is predicted to have been at a maximum in the Triassic and was likely to have been powerful enough to draw moisture along the equator from the ocean to the west. ?? 1988.

  20. The use of different ensemble forecasting systems for wind power prediction on a real case in the South of Italy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alessandrini, Stefano; Sperati, Simone; Pinson, Pierre

    2012-01-01

    Short-term forecasting applied to wind energy is becoming increasingly important due to the constant growth of this renewable source, whose uncertainty requires a constant effort to meet the needs of the national electrical systems and their operators. Regarding to this, the probabilistic approach...... calibration performed on the wind speed EPS members allows an improvement from an over-confident situation observable from the rank histograms (in which the measurements fell quite always outside the bounds of the probability distribution) to a consistent ensemble spread. After that it is possible to convert...... the data to wind energy: the spread calculated on wind power can then be used as an accuracy predictor due to its level of correlation with the deterministic WPF error. In this presentation we investigate the performances for both wind power and accuracy prediction of the new EPS used at the ECMWF, whose...

  1. Can high-energy proton events in solar wind be predicted via classification of precursory structures?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hallerberg, Sarah [Chemnitz University of Technology (Germany); Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Feynman, Joan [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology (United States)

    2011-07-01

    Shock waves in the solar wind associated with solar coronal mass ejections produce fluxes of high-energy protons and ions with energies larger than 10 MeV. These fluxes present a danger to humans and electronic equipment in space, and also endanger passengers of over-pole air flights. The approaches that have been exploited for the prediction of high-energy particle events so far consist in training artificial neural networks on catalogues of events. Our approach towards this task is based on the identification of precursory structures in the fluxes of particles. In contrast to artificial neural networks that function as a ''black box'' transforming data into predictions, this classification approach can additionally provide information on relevant precursory events and thus might help to improve the understanding of underlying mechanisms of particle acceleration.

  2. A Predictive Power Control Strategy for DFIGs Based on a Wind Energy Converter System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoliang Yang

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A feasible control strategy is proposed to control a doubly fed induction generator based on the wind energy converter system (DFIG-WECS. The main aim is to enhance the steady state and dynamic performance under the condition of the parameter perturbations and external disturbances and to satisfy the stator power response of the system. Within the proposed control method, the control scheme for the rotor side converter (RSC is developed on the model predictive control. Firstly, the self-adaptive reference trajectory is established from the deduced discrete state-space equation of the generator. Then, the rotor voltage is calculated by minimizing the global performance index under the current prediction steps at the sampling instant. Through the control scheme for the grid side converter (GSC and wind turbine, we have re-applied the conventional control. The effectiveness of the proposed control strategy is verified via time domain simulation of a 150 kW-575 V DFIG-WECS using Matlab/Simulink. The simulation result shows that the control of the DFIG with the proposed control method can enhance the steady and dynamic response capability better than the conventional ones when the system faces errors due to the parameter perturbations, external disturbances and the rotor speed.

  3. Dynamic Modeling and Very Short-term Prediction of Wind Power Output Using Box-Cox Transformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urata, Kengo; Inoue, Masaki; Murayama, Dai; Adachi, Shuichi

    2016-09-01

    We propose a statistical modeling method of wind power output for very short-term prediction. The modeling method with a nonlinear model has cascade structure composed of two parts. One is a linear dynamic part that is driven by a Gaussian white noise and described by an autoregressive model. The other is a nonlinear static part that is driven by the output of the linear part. This nonlinear part is designed for output distribution matching: we shape the distribution of the model output to match with that of the wind power output. The constructed model is utilized for one-step ahead prediction of the wind power output. Furthermore, we study the relation between the prediction accuracy and the prediction horizon.

  4. Towards more accurate wind and solar power prediction by improving NWP model physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiner, Andrea; Köhler, Carmen; von Schumann, Jonas; Ritter, Bodo

    2014-05-01

    The growing importance and successive expansion of renewable energies raise new challenges for decision makers, economists, transmission system operators, scientists and many more. In this interdisciplinary field, the role of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is to reduce the errors and provide an a priori estimate of remaining uncertainties associated with the large share of weather-dependent power sources. For this purpose it is essential to optimize NWP model forecasts with respect to those prognostic variables which are relevant for wind and solar power plants. An improved weather forecast serves as the basis for a sophisticated power forecasts. Consequently, a well-timed energy trading on the stock market, and electrical grid stability can be maintained. The German Weather Service (DWD) currently is involved with two projects concerning research in the field of renewable energy, namely ORKA*) and EWeLiNE**). Whereas the latter is in collaboration with the Fraunhofer Institute (IWES), the project ORKA is led by energy & meteo systems (emsys). Both cooperate with German transmission system operators. The goal of the projects is to improve wind and photovoltaic (PV) power forecasts by combining optimized NWP and enhanced power forecast models. In this context, the German Weather Service aims to improve its model system, including the ensemble forecasting system, by working on data assimilation, model physics and statistical post processing. This presentation is focused on the identification of critical weather situations and the associated errors in the German regional NWP model COSMO-DE. First steps leading to improved physical parameterization schemes within the NWP-model are presented. Wind mast measurements reaching up to 200 m height above ground are used for the estimation of the (NWP) wind forecast error at heights relevant for wind energy plants. One particular problem is the daily cycle in wind speed. The transition from stable stratification during

  5. Probability function of breaking-limited surface elevation. [wind generated waves of ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tung, C. C.; Huang, N. E.; Yuan, Y.; Long, S. R.

    1989-01-01

    The effect of wave breaking on the probability function of surface elevation is examined. The surface elevation limited by wave breaking zeta sub b(t) is first related to the original wave elevation zeta(t) and its second derivative. An approximate, second-order, nonlinear, non-Gaussian model for zeta(t) of arbitrary but moderate bandwidth is presented, and an expression for the probability density function zeta sub b(t) is derived. The results show clearly that the effect of wave breaking on the probability density function of surface elevation is to introduce a secondary hump on the positive side of the probability density function, a phenomenon also observed in wind wave tank experiments.

  6. Prediction of antigenic epitopes on protein surfaces by consensus scoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Chi

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prediction of antigenic epitopes on protein surfaces is important for vaccine design. Most existing epitope prediction methods focus on protein sequences to predict continuous epitopes linear in sequence. Only a few structure-based epitope prediction algorithms are available and they have not yet shown satisfying performance. Results We present a new antigen Epitope Prediction method, which uses ConsEnsus Scoring (EPCES from six different scoring functions - residue epitope propensity, conservation score, side-chain energy score, contact number, surface planarity score, and secondary structure composition. Applied to unbounded antigen structures from an independent test set, EPCES was able to predict antigenic eptitopes with 47.8% sensitivity, 69.5% specificity and an AUC value of 0.632. The performance of the method is statistically similar to other published methods. The AUC value of EPCES is slightly higher compared to the best results of existing algorithms by about 0.034. Conclusion Our work shows consensus scoring of multiple features has a better performance than any single term. The successful prediction is also due to the new score of residue epitope propensity based on atomic solvent accessibility.

  7. Design and testing of a deformable wind turbine blade control surface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daynes, S; Weaver, P M

    2012-01-01

    Wind tunnel tests were conducted on a 1.3 m chord NACA 63–418 blade section fitted with an adaptive trailing edge flap. The 20% chord flap had an aramid honeycomb core covered with a silicone skin and was actuated using servo motors. The honeycomb core had a high stiffness in the thickness direction but was compliant in chordwise bending. These anisotropic properties offer a potential solution for the conflicting design requirements found in morphing trailing edge structures. Static and dynamic tests were performed up to a Reynolds number of 5.4 × 10 6 . The tests showed that deflecting the flap from − 10° to + 10° changes the blade section lift coefficient by 1.0 in non-stalled conditions. Dynamic tests showed the flap to be capable of operating up to 9° s −1 using a 15 V power supply. A two-dimensional static aeroelastic model of the morphing flap was developed to analyse strains, predict actuator requirements and study fluid–structure interaction effects. The model was used to conduct parametric studies to further improve the flap design. Potential applications include wind turbine blade load alleviation and increased wind energy capture. (paper)

  8. Dependence of Lunar Surface Charging on Solar Wind Plasma Conditions and Solar Irradiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stubbs, T. J.; Farrell, W. M.; Halekas, J. S.; Burchill, J. K.; Collier, M. R.; Zimmerman, M. I.; Vondrak, R. R.; Delory, G. T.; Pfaff, R. F.

    2014-01-01

    The surface of the Moon is electrically charged by exposure to solar radiation on its dayside, as well as by the continuous flux of charged particles from the various plasma environments that surround it. An electric potential develops between the lunar surface and ambient plasma, which manifests itself in a near-surface plasma sheath with a scale height of order the Debye length. This study investigates surface charging on the lunar dayside and near-terminator regions in the solar wind, for which the dominant current sources are usually from the pohotoemission of electrons, J(sub p), and the collection of plasma electrons J(sub e) and ions J(sub i). These currents are dependent on the following six parameters: plasma concentration n(sub 0), electron temperature T(sub e), ion temperature T(sub i), bulk flow velocity V, photoemission current at normal incidence J(sub P0), and photo electron temperature T(sub p). Using a numerical model, derived from a set of eleven basic assumptions, the influence of these six parameters on surface charging - characterized by the equilibrium surface potential, Debye length, and surface electric field - is investigated as a function of solar zenith angle. Overall, T(sub e) is the most important parameter, especially near the terminator, while J(sub P0) and T(sub p) dominate over most of the dayside.

  9. Tropical Atlantic biases and their relation to surface wind stress and terrestrial precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Ingo; Xie, Shang-Ping; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Masumoto, Yukio

    2012-03-01

    Most coupled general circulation models (GCMs) perform poorly in the tropical Atlantic in terms of climatological seasonal cycle and interannual variability. The reasons for this poor performance are investigated in a suite of sensitivity experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled GCM. The experiments show that a significant portion of the equatorial SST biases in the model is due to weaker than observed equatorial easterlies during boreal spring. Due to these weak easterlies, the tilt of the equatorial thermocline is reduced, with shoaling in the west and deepening in the east. The erroneously deep thermocline in the east prevents cold tongue formation in the following season despite vigorous upwelling, thus inhibiting the Bjerknes feedback. It is further shown that the surface wind errors are due, in part, to deficient precipitation over equatorial South America and excessive precipitation over equatorial Africa, which already exist in the uncoupled atmospheric GCM. Additional tests indicate that the precipitation biases are highly sensitive to land surface conditions such as albedo and soil moisture. This suggests that improving the representation of land surface processes in GCMs offers a way of improving their performance in the tropical Atlantic. The weaker than observed equatorial easterlies also contribute remotely, via equatorial and coastal Kelvin waves, to the severe warm SST biases along the southwest African coast. However, the strength of the subtropical anticyclone and along-shore winds also play an important role.

  10. Tropical Atlantic biases and their relation to surface wind stress and terrestrial precipitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richter, Ingo [Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama (Japan); University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Xie, Shang-Ping [University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI (United States); Wittenberg, Andrew T. [NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ (United States); Masumoto, Yukio [Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama (Japan)

    2012-03-15

    Most coupled general circulation models (GCMs) perform poorly in the tropical Atlantic in terms of climatological seasonal cycle and interannual variability. The reasons for this poor performance are investigated in a suite of sensitivity experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled GCM. The experiments show that a significant portion of the equatorial SST biases in the model is due to weaker than observed equatorial easterlies during boreal spring. Due to these weak easterlies, the tilt of the equatorial thermocline is reduced, with shoaling in the west and deepening in the east. The erroneously deep thermocline in the east prevents cold tongue formation in the following season despite vigorous upwelling, thus inhibiting the Bjerknes feedback. It is further shown that the surface wind errors are due, in part, to deficient precipitation over equatorial South America and excessive precipitation over equatorial Africa, which already exist in the uncoupled atmospheric GCM. Additional tests indicate that the precipitation biases are highly sensitive to land surface conditions such as albedo and soil moisture. This suggests that improving the representation of land surface processes in GCMs offers a way of improving their performance in the tropical Atlantic. The weaker than observed equatorial easterlies also contribute remotely, via equatorial and coastal Kelvin waves, to the severe warm SST biases along the southwest African coast. However, the strength of the subtropical anticyclone and along-shore winds also play an important role. (orig.)

  11. Satellite retrieved cloud optical thickness sensitive to surface wind speed in the subarctic marine boundary layer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glantz, Paul

    2010-01-01

    The optical and microphysical properties of low level marine clouds, presented over the Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea, have been investigated for the period 2000-2006. The air masses were transported for more or less seven days over the warmer North Atlantic before they arrived at the area investigated. The main focus in this study is on investigating the relationship between cloud optical thickness (COT) and surface wind speed (U 10m ) using satellite retrievals in combination with operational meteorological data. A relatively strong correlation (R 2 = 0.97) is obtained for wind speeds up to 12 m s -1 , in air masses that were probably to a major degree influenced by wind shears and to a minor degree by buoyancy. The relationship (U 2.5 ) is also in between those most commonly found in the literature for water vapor (∼U 1 ) and sea salt (∼U 3.4 ). The present results highlight the magnitude of marine sea-spray influence on COT and their global climatic importance.

  12. Estimating a relationship between aerosol optical thickness and surface wind speed over the ocean

    OpenAIRE

    Glantz , P.; Nilsson , D. E.; Von Hoyningen-Huene , W.

    2006-01-01

    International audience; Retrieved aerosol optical thickness (AOT) based on data obtained by the Sea viewing Wide Field Sensor (SeaWiFS) is combined with surface wind speed, obtained at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWFs), over the North Pacific for September 2001. In this study a cloud screening approach is introduced in an attempt to exclude pixels partly or fully covered by clouds. The relatively broad swath width for which the nadir looking SeaWiFS instrument sc...

  13. Simulating damage for wind storms in the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yi-Ying; Gardiner, Barry; Pasztor, Ferenc; Blennow, Kristina; Ryder, James; Valade, Aude; Naudts, Kim; Otto, Juliane; McGrath, Matthew J.; Planque, Carole; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan

    2018-03-01

    Earth system models (ESMs) are currently the most advanced tools with which to study the interactions among humans, ecosystem productivity, and the climate. The inclusion of storm damage in ESMs has long been hampered by their big-leaf approach, which ignores the canopy structure information that is required for process-based wind-throw modelling. Recently the big-leaf assumptions in the large-scale land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN were replaced by a three-dimensional description of the canopy structure. This opened the way to the integration of the processes from the small-scale wind damage risk model ForestGALES into ORCHIDEE-CAN. The integration of ForestGALES into ORCHIDEE-CAN required, however, developing numerically efficient solutions to deal with (1) landscape heterogeneity, i.e. account for newly established forest edges for the parameterization of gusts; (2) downscaling spatially and temporally aggregated wind fields to obtain more realistic wind speeds that would represents gusts; and (3) downscaling storm damage within the 2500 km2 pixels of ORCHIDEE-CAN. This new version of ORCHIDEE-CAN was parameterized over Sweden. Subsequently, the performance of the model was tested against data for historical storms in southern Sweden between 1951 and 2010 and south-western France in 2009. In years without big storms, here defined as a storm damaging less than 15 × 106 m3 of wood in Sweden, the model error is 1.62 × 106 m3, which is about 100 % of the observed damage. For years with big storms, such as Gudrun in 2005, the model error increased to 5.05 × 106 m3, which is between 10 and 50 % of the observed damage. When the same model parameters were used over France, the model reproduced a decrease in leaf area index and an increase in albedo, in accordance with SPOT-VGT and MODIS records following the passing of Cyclone Klaus in 2009. The current version of ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262) is therefore expected to have the capability to capture the dynamics of

  14. Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft- and Satellite-based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on Estimates of Hurricane Intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uhlhorn, Eric; Atlas, Robert; Black, Peter; Buckley, Courtney; Chen, Shuyi; El-Nimri, Salem; Hood, Robbie; Johnson, James; Jones, Linwood; Miller, Timothy; hide

    2009-01-01

    The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor currently under development to enhance real-time hurricane ocean surface wind observations. HIRAD builds on the capabilities of the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which now operates on NOAA P-3, G-4, and AFRC C-130 aircraft. Unlike the SFMR, which measures wind speed and rain rate along the ground track directly beneath the aircraft, HIRAD will provide images of the surface wind and rain field over a wide swath (approximately 3 times the aircraft altitude). To demonstrate potential improvement in the measurement of peak hurricane winds, we present a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in which measurements from the new instrument as well as those from existing platforms (air, surface, and space-based) are simulated from the output of a high-resolution (approximately 1.7 km) numerical model. Simulated retrieval errors due to both instrument noise as well as model function accuracy are considered over the expected range of incidence angles, wind speeds and rain rates. Based on numerous simulated flight patterns and data source combinations, statistics are developed to describe relationships between the observed and true (from the model s perspective) peak wind speed. These results have implications for improving the estimation of hurricane intensity (as defined by the peak sustained wind anywhere in the storm), which may often go un-observed due to sampling limitations.

  15. Evolution of rotating stars. III. Predicted surface rotation velocities for stars which conserve total angular momentum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Endal, A.S.; Sofia, S.

    1979-01-01

    Predicted surface rotation velocities are presented for Population I stars at 10, 7, 5, 3, and 1.5M/sub sun/. The surface velocities have been computed for three different cases of angular momentum redistribution: no radial redistribution (rotation on decoupled shells), complete redistribution (rigid-body rotation), and partial redistribution as predicted by detailed consideration of circulation currents in rotation stars. The velocities for these cases are compared to each other and to observed stellar rotation rates (upsilon sin i).Near the main sequence, rotational effects can substantially reduce the moment of inertia of a star, so nonrotating models consistently underestimate the expected velocities for evolving stars. The magnitude of these effects is sufficient to explain the large numbers of Be stars and, perhaps, to explain the bimodal distribution of velocities observed for the O stars.On the red giant branch, angular momentum redistribution reduces the surface velocity by a factor of 2 or more, relative to the velocity expected for no radial redistribution. This removes the discrepancy between predicted and observed rotation rates for the K giants and makes it unlikely that these stars lose significant amounts of angular momentum by stellar winds. Our calculations indicate that improved observations (by the Fourier-transform technique) of the red giants in the Hyades cluster can be used to determine how angular momentum is redistributed by convection

  16. Estimating the maritime component of aerosol optical depth and its dependency on surface wind speed using satellite data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Lehahn

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Six years (2003–2008 of satellite measurements of aerosol parameters from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS and surface wind speeds from Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT, the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E, and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I, are used to provide a comprehensive perspective on the link between surface wind speed and marine aerosol optical depth over tropical and subtropical oceanic regions. A systematic comparison between the satellite derived fields in these regions allows to: (i separate the relative contribution of wind-induced marine aerosol to the aerosol optical depth; (ii extract an empirical linear equation linking coarse marine aerosol optical depth and wind intensity; and (iii identify a time scale for correlating marine aerosol optical depth and surface wind speed. The contribution of wind induced marine aerosol to aerosol optical depth is found to be dominated by the coarse mode elements. When wind intensity exceeds 4 m/s, coarse marine aerosol optical depth is linearly correlated with the surface wind speed, with a remarkably consistent slope of 0.009±0.002 s/m. A detailed time scale analysis shows that the linear correlation between the fields is well kept within a 12 h time frame, while sharply decreasing when the time lag between measurements is longer. The background aerosol optical depth, associated with aerosols that are not produced in-situ through wind driven processes, can be used for estimating the contributions of terrestrial and biogenic marine aerosol to over-ocean satellite retrievals of aerosol optical depth.

  17. GHRSST Level 3U Global Subskin Sea Surface Temperature from the WindSat Polarimetric Radiometer on the Coriolis satellite (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The WindSat Polarimetric Radiometer, launched on January 6, 2003 aboard the Department of Defense Coriolis satellite, was designed to measure the ocean surface wind...

  18. Evolution of offshore wind waves tracked by surface drifters with a point-positioning GPS sensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komatsu, K.

    2009-12-01

    Wind-generated waves have been recognized as one of the most important factors of the sea surface roughness which plays crucial roles in various air-sea interactions such as energy, momentum, heat and gas exchanges. At the same time, wind waves with extreme wave heights representatively called as freak or rogue waves have been a matter of great concern for many people involved in shipping, fishing, constracting, surfing and other marine activities, because such extreme waves frequently affect on the marine activities and sometimes cause serious disasters. Nevertheless, investigations of actual conditions for the evolution of wind waves in the offshore region are less and sparse in contrast to dense monitoring networks in the coastal regions because of difficulty of offshore observation with high accuracy. Recently accurate in situ observation of offshore wind waves is getting possible at low cost owing to a wave height and direction sensor developed by Harigae et al. (2004) by installing a point-positioning GPS receiver on a surface drifting buoy. The point-positioning GPS sensor can extract three dimensional movements of the buoy excited by ocean waves with minimizing effects of GPS point-positioning errors through the use of a high-pass filter. Two drifting buoys equipped with the GPS-based wave sensor charged by solar cells were drifted in the western North Pacific and one of them continued to observe wind waves during 16 months from Sep. 2007. The RMSE of the GPS-based wave sensor was less than 10cm in significant wave height and about 1s in significant wave period in comparison with other sensors, i.e. accelerometers installed on drifting buoys of Japan Meteorological Agency, ultrasonic sensors placed at the Hiratsuka observation station of the University of Tokyo and altimeter of the JASON-1. The GPS-based wave buoys enabled us to detect freak waves defined as waves whose height is more than twice the significant wave height. The observation conducted by the

  19. Predicting Nanocrystal Shape through Consideration of Surface-Ligand Interactions

    KAUST Repository

    Bealing, Clive R.

    2012-03-27

    Density functional calculations for the binding energy of oleic acid-based ligands on Pb-rich {100} and {111} facets of PbSe nanocrystals determine the surface energies as a function of ligand coverage. Oleic acid is expected to bind to the nanocrystal surface in the form of lead oleate. The Wulff construction predicts the thermodynamic equilibrium shape of the PbSe nanocrystals. The equilibrium shape is a function of the ligand surface coverage, which can be controlled by changing the concentration of oleic acid during synthesis. The different binding energy of the ligand on the {100} and {111} facets results in different equilibrium ligand coverages on the facets, and a transition in the equilibrium shape from octahedral to cubic is predicted when increasing the ligand concentration during synthesis. © 2012 American Chemical Society.

  20. Extreme Value Predictions for Wave- and Wind-induced Loads on Floating Offshore Wind Turbines using FORM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joensen, Sunvard; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher; Mansour, Alaa E.

    2007-01-01

    duration of the time domain simulations needed (typically 60-300s to cover the hy-drodynamic memory effects in the response) the calcu-lation of the mean out-crossing rates of a given response are very fast. Thus complicated non-linear effects can be included. The FORM analysis also identifies the most...... probable wave episodes leading to given re-sponses. As an example the motions of floating foundations for offshore wind turbines are analysed taking into consid-eration both the wave and wind induced loads and con-sidering different mooring systems. The possible large horizontal motions make it important...

  1. Lunar dusty plasma: A result of interaction of the solar wind flux and ultraviolet radiation with the lunar surface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lisin, E A; Tarakanov, V P; Petrov, O F; Popel, S I

    2015-01-01

    One of the main problems of future missions to the Moon is associated with lunar dust. Solar wind flux and ultraviolet radiation interact with the lunar surface. As a result, there is a substantial surface change and a near-surface plasma sheath. Dust particles from the lunar regolith, which turned in this plasma because of any mechanical processes, can levitate above the surface, forming dust clouds. In preparing of the space experiments “Luna-Glob” and “Luna-Resource” particle-in-cell calculations of the near-surface plasma sheath parameters are carried out. Here we present some new results of particle-in-cell simulation of the plasma sheath formed near the surface of the moon as a result of interaction of the solar wind and ultraviolet radiation with the lunar surface. The conditions of charging and stable levitation of dust particles in plasma above the lunar surface are also considered. (paper)

  2. Ensemble using different Planetary Boundary Layer schemes in WRF model for wind speed and direction prediction over Apulia region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tateo, Andrea; Marcello Miglietta, Mario; Fedele, Francesca; Menegotto, Micaela; Monaco, Alfonso; Bellotti, Roberto

    2017-04-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model (WRF) was used to simulate hourly 10 m wind speed and direction over the city of Taranto, Apulia region (south-eastern Italy). This area is characterized by a large industrial complex including the largest European steel plant and is subject to a Regional Air Quality Recovery Plan. This plan constrains industries in the area to reduce by 10 % the mean daily emissions by diffuse and point sources during specific meteorological conditions named wind days. According to the Recovery Plan, the Regional Environmental Agency ARPA-PUGLIA is responsible for forecasting these specific meteorological conditions with 72 h in advance and possibly issue the early warning. In particular, an accurate wind simulation is required. Unfortunately, numerical weather prediction models suffer from errors, especially for what concerns near-surface fields. These errors depend primarily on uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions provided by global models and secondly on the model formulation, in particular the physical parametrizations used to represent processes such as turbulence, radiation exchange, cumulus and microphysics. In our work, we tried to compensate for the latter limitation by using different Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parameterization schemes. Five combinations of PBL and Surface Layer (SL) schemes were considered. Simulations are implemented in a real-time configuration since our intention is to analyze the same configuration implemented by ARPA-PUGLIA for operational runs; the validation is focused over a time range extending from 49 to 72 h with hourly time resolution. The assessment of the performance was computed by comparing the WRF model output with ground data measured at a weather monitoring station in Taranto, near the steel plant. After the analysis of the simulations performed with different PBL schemes, both simple (e.g. average) and more complex post-processing methods (e.g. weighted average

  3. DEWEPS - Development and Evaluation of new Wind forecasting tools with an Ensemble Prediction System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moehrlen, C.; Joergensen, Jess

    2012-02-15

    There is an ongoing trend of increased privatization in the handling of renewable energy. This trend is required to ensure an efficient energy system, where improvements that make economic sense are prioritised. The reason why centralized forecasting can be a challenge in that matter is that the TSOs tend to optimize on physical error rather than cost. Consequently, the market is likely to speculate against the TSO, which in turn increases the cost of balancing. A privatized pool of wind and/or solar power is more difficult to speculate against, because the optimization criteria is unpredictable due to subjective risk considerations that may be taken into account at any time. Although there is and additional level of costs for the trading of the private volume, it can be argued that competition will accelerate efficiency from an economic perspective. The amount of power put into the market will become less predictable, when the wind power spot market bid takes place on the basis of a risk consideration in addition to the forecast information itself. The scope of this project is to contribute to more efficient wind power integration targeted both to centralised and decentralised cost efficient IT solutions, which will complement each other in market based energy systems. The DEWEPS project resulted in an extension of the number of Ensemble forecasts, an incremental trade strategy for balancing unpredictable power production, and an IT platform for efficient handling of power generation units. Together, these three elements contribute to less need for reserves, more capacity in the market, and thus more competition. (LN)

  4. Tuning and predicting the wetting of nanoengineered material surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramiasa-MacGregor, M.; Mierczynska, A.; Sedev, R.; Vasilev, K.

    2016-02-01

    The wetting of a material can be tuned by changing the roughness on its surface. Recent advances in the field of nanotechnology open exciting opportunities to control macroscopic wetting behaviour. Yet, the benchmark theories used to describe the wettability of macroscopically rough surfaces fail to fully describe the wetting behaviour of systems with topographical features at the nanoscale. To shed light on the events occurring at the nanoscale we have utilised model gradient substrata where surface nanotopography was tailored in a controlled and robust manner. The intrinsic wettability of the coatings was varied from hydrophilic to hydrophobic. The measured water contact angle could not be described by the classical theories. We developed an empirical model that effectively captures the experimental data, and further enables us to predict the wetting of surfaces with nanoscale roughness by considering the physical and chemical properties of the material. The fundamental insights presented here are important for the rational design of advanced materials having tailored surface nanotopography with predictable wettability.The wetting of a material can be tuned by changing the roughness on its surface. Recent advances in the field of nanotechnology open exciting opportunities to control macroscopic wetting behaviour. Yet, the benchmark theories used to describe the wettability of macroscopically rough surfaces fail to fully describe the wetting behaviour of systems with topographical features at the nanoscale. To shed light on the events occurring at the nanoscale we have utilised model gradient substrata where surface nanotopography was tailored in a controlled and robust manner. The intrinsic wettability of the coatings was varied from hydrophilic to hydrophobic. The measured water contact angle could not be described by the classical theories. We developed an empirical model that effectively captures the experimental data, and further enables us to predict the

  5. Aerodynamic noise characterization of a full-scale wind turbine through high-frequency surface pressure measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bertagnolio, Franck; Aagaard Madsen, Helge; Bak, Christian

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this work is to investigate and characterize the high-frequency surface pressure fluctuations on a full-scale wind turbine blade and in particular the influence of the atmospheric turbulence. As these fluctuations are highly correlated to the sources of both turbulent inflow noise...... and trailing edge noise, recognized to be the two main sources of noise from wind turbines, this work contributes to a more detailed insight into noise from wind turbines. The study comprises analysis and interpretation of measurement data that were acquired during an experimental campaign involving a 2 MW...... wind turbine with a 80 m diameter rotor as well as measurements of an airfoil section tested in a wind tunnel. The turbine was extensively equipped in order to monitor the local inflow onto the rotating blades. Further a section of the 38 m long blade was instrumented with 50 microphones flush...

  6. Predicting supramolecular self-assembly on reconstructed metal surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roussel, Thomas J.; Barrena, Esther; Ocal, Carmen; Faraudo, Jordi

    2014-06-01

    The prediction of supramolecular self-assembly onto solid surfaces is still challenging in many situations of interest for nanoscience. In particular, no previous simulation approach has been capable to simulate large self-assembly patterns of organic molecules over reconstructed surfaces (which have periodicities over large distances) due to the large number of surface atoms and adsorbing molecules involved. Using a novel simulation technique, we report here large scale simulations of the self-assembly patterns of an organic molecule (DIP) over different reconstructions of the Au(111) surface. We show that on particular reconstructions, the molecule-molecule interactions are enhanced in a way that long-range order is promoted. Also, the presence of a distortion in a reconstructed surface pattern not only induces the presence of long-range order but also is able to drive the organization of DIP into two coexisting homochiral domains, in quantitative agreement with STM experiments. On the other hand, only short range order is obtained in other reconstructions of the Au(111) surface. The simulation strategy opens interesting perspectives to tune the supramolecular structure by simulation design and surface engineering if choosing the right molecular building blocks and stabilising the chosen reconstruction pattern.The prediction of supramolecular self-assembly onto solid surfaces is still challenging in many situations of interest for nanoscience. In particular, no previous simulation approach has been capable to simulate large self-assembly patterns of organic molecules over reconstructed surfaces (which have periodicities over large distances) due to the large number of surface atoms and adsorbing molecules involved. Using a novel simulation technique, we report here large scale simulations of the self-assembly patterns of an organic molecule (DIP) over different reconstructions of the Au(111) surface. We show that on particular reconstructions, the molecule

  7. Solar-wind predictions for the Parker Solar Probe orbit. Near-Sun extrapolations derived from an empirical solar-wind model based on Helios and OMNI observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venzmer, M. S.; Bothmer, V.

    2018-03-01

    Context. The Parker Solar Probe (PSP; formerly Solar Probe Plus) mission will be humanitys first in situ exploration of the solar corona with closest perihelia at 9.86 solar radii (R⊙) distance to the Sun. It will help answer hitherto unresolved questions on the heating of the solar corona and the source and acceleration of the solar wind and solar energetic particles. The scope of this study is to model the solar-wind environment for PSPs unprecedented distances in its prime mission phase during the years 2018 to 2025. The study is performed within the Coronagraphic German And US SolarProbePlus Survey (CGAUSS) which is the German contribution to the PSP mission as part of the Wide-field Imager for Solar PRobe. Aim. We present an empirical solar-wind model for the inner heliosphere which is derived from OMNI and Helios data. The German-US space probes Helios 1 and Helios 2 flew in the 1970s and observed solar wind in the ecliptic within heliocentric distances of 0.29 au to 0.98 au. The OMNI database consists of multi-spacecraft intercalibrated in situ data obtained near 1 au over more than five solar cycles. The international sunspot number (SSN) and its predictions are used to derive dependencies of the major solar-wind parameters on solar activity and to forecast their properties for the PSP mission. Methods: The frequency distributions for the solar-wind key parameters, magnetic field strength, proton velocity, density, and temperature, are represented by lognormal functions. In addition, we consider the velocity distributions bi-componental shape, consisting of a slower and a faster part. Functional relations to solar activity are compiled with use of the OMNI data by correlating and fitting the frequency distributions with the SSN. Further, based on the combined data set from both Helios probes, the parameters frequency distributions are fitted with respect to solar distance to obtain power law dependencies. Thus an empirical solar-wind model for the inner

  8. Aggregated wind power generation probabilistic forecasting based on particle filter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Pai; Guan, Xiaohong; Wu, Jiang

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A new method for probabilistic forecasting of aggregated wind power generation. • A dynamic system is established based on a numerical weather prediction model. • The new method handles the non-Gaussian and time-varying wind power uncertainties. • Particle filter is applied to forecast predictive densities of wind generation. - Abstract: Probability distribution of aggregated wind power generation in a region is one of important issues for power system daily operation. This paper presents a novel method to forecast the predictive densities of the aggregated wind power generation from several geographically distributed wind farms, considering the non-Gaussian and non-stationary characteristics in wind power uncertainties. Based on a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model, a dynamic system is established to formulate the relationship between the atmospheric and near-surface wind fields of geographically distributed wind farms. A recursively backtracking framework based on the particle filter is applied to estimate the atmospheric state with the near-surface wind power generation measurements, and to forecast the possible samples of the aggregated wind power generation. The predictive densities of the aggregated wind power generation are then estimated based on these predicted samples by a kernel density estimator. In case studies, the new method presented is tested on a 9 wind farms system in Midwestern United States. The testing results that the new method can provide competitive interval forecasts for the aggregated wind power generation with conventional statistical based models, which validates the effectiveness of the new method

  9. The Role of Hierarchy in Response Surface Modeling of Wind Tunnel Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLoach, Richard

    2010-01-01

    This paper is intended as a tutorial introduction to certain aspects of response surface modeling, for the experimentalist who has started to explore these methods as a means of improving productivity and quality in wind tunnel testing and other aerospace applications. A brief review of the productivity advantages of response surface modeling in aerospace research is followed by a description of the advantages of a common coding scheme that scales and centers independent variables. The benefits of model term reduction are reviewed. A constraint on model term reduction with coded factors is described in some detail, which requires such models to be well-formulated, or hierarchical. Examples illustrate the consequences of ignoring this constraint. The implication for automated regression model reduction procedures is discussed, and some opinions formed from the author s experience are offered on coding, model reduction, and hierarchy.

  10. Research on improved design of airfoil profiles based on the continuity of airfoil surface curvature of wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Jin; Cheng, Jiangtao; Shen, Wenzhong

    2013-01-01

    Aerodynamic of airfoil performance is closely related to the continuity of its surface curvature, and airfoil profiles with a better aerodynamic performance plays an important role in the design of wind turbine. The surface curvature distribution along the chord direction and pressure distributio...

  11. Impact, runoff and drying of wind-driven rain on a window glass surface: numerical modelling based on experimental validation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blocken, B.J.E.; Carmeliet, J.E.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a combination of two models to study both the impingement and the contact and surface phenomena of rainwater on a glass window surface: a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model for the calculation of the distribution of the wind-driven rain (WDR) across the building facade and

  12. Departure Queue Prediction for Strategic and Tactical Surface Scheduler Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelinski, Shannon; Windhorst, Robert

    2016-01-01

    A departure metering concept to be demonstrated at Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) will integrate strategic and tactical surface scheduling components to enable the respective collaborative decision making and improved efficiency benefits these two methods of scheduling provide. This study analyzes the effect of tactical scheduling on strategic scheduler predictability. Strategic queue predictions and target gate pushback times to achieve a desired queue length are compared between fast time simulations of CLT surface operations with and without tactical scheduling. The use of variable departure rates as a strategic scheduler input was shown to substantially improve queue predictions over static departure rates. With target queue length calibration, the strategic scheduler can be tuned to produce average delays within one minute of the tactical scheduler. However, root mean square differences between strategic and tactical delays were between 12 and 15 minutes due to the different methods the strategic and tactical schedulers use to predict takeoff times and generate gate pushback clearances. This demonstrates how difficult it is for the strategic scheduler to predict tactical scheduler assigned gate delays on an individual flight basis as the tactical scheduler adjusts departure sequence to accommodate arrival interactions. Strategic/tactical scheduler compatibility may be improved by providing more arrival information to the strategic scheduler and stabilizing tactical scheduler changes to runway sequence in response to arrivals.

  13. Predictive model for convective flows induced by surface reactivity contrast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Scott M.; Lammertink, Rob G. H.; Mani, Ali

    2018-05-01

    Concentration gradients in a fluid adjacent to a reactive surface due to contrast in surface reactivity generate convective flows. These flows result from contributions by electro- and diffusio-osmotic phenomena. In this study, we have analyzed reactive patterns that release and consume protons, analogous to bimetallic catalytic conversion of peroxide. Similar systems have typically been studied using either scaling analysis to predict trends or costly numerical simulation. Here, we present a simple analytical model, bridging the gap in quantitative understanding between scaling relations and simulations, to predict the induced potentials and consequent velocities in such systems without the use of any fitting parameters. Our model is tested against direct numerical solutions to the coupled Poisson, Nernst-Planck, and Stokes equations. Predicted slip velocities from the model and simulations agree to within a factor of ≈2 over a multiple order-of-magnitude change in the input parameters. Our analysis can be used to predict enhancement of mass transport and the resulting impact on overall catalytic conversion, and is also applicable to predicting the speed of catalytic nanomotors.

  14. A simplified model predicting the weight of the load carrying beam in a wind turbine blade

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Lars Pilgaard

    2016-01-01

    from 20 to 90 m. In addition, it can be seen that for a blade using glass fibre reinforced polymers, the design is controlled by the deflection and thereby the material stiffness in order to avoid the blade to hit the tower. On the other hand if using aluminium, the design will be controlled...... to predict the weight of the load carrying beam when using glassfibre reinforced polymers, carbon fibre reinforced polymers or an aluminium alloy as the construction material. Thereby, it is found that the weight of a glass fibre wind turbine blade is increased from 0.5 to 33 tons when the blade length grows...... by the fatigue resistance in orderto making the material survive the 100 to 500 million load cycles experience of the windturbine blade throughout the lifetime. The aluminium blade is also found to be considerably heavier compared with the composite blades....

  15. Prediction of Aerodynamic Coefficients for Wind Tunnel Data using a Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajkumar, T.; Aragon, Cecilia; Bardina, Jorge; Britten, Roy

    2002-01-01

    A fast, reliable way of predicting aerodynamic coefficients is produced using a neural network optimized by a genetic algorithm. Basic aerodynamic coefficients (e.g. lift, drag, pitching moment) are modelled as functions of angle of attack and Mach number. The neural network is first trained on a relatively rich set of data from wind tunnel tests of numerical simulations to learn an overall model. Most of the aerodynamic parameters can be well-fitted using polynomial functions. A new set of data, which can be relatively sparse, is then supplied to the network to produce a new model consistent with the previous model and the new data. Because the new model interpolates realistically between the sparse test data points, it is suitable for use in piloted simulations. The genetic algorithm is used to choose a neural network architecture to give best results, avoiding over-and under-fitting of the test data.

  16. Zonal surface wind jets across the Red Sea due to mountain gap forcing along both sides of the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Jiang, Houshuo

    2009-01-01

    [1] Mesoscale atmospheric modeling over the Red Sea, validated by in-situ meteorological buoy data, identifies two types of coastal mountain gap wind jets that frequently blow across the longitudinal axis of the Red Sea: (1) an eastward-blowing summer daily wind jet originating from the Tokar Gap on the Sudanese Red Sea coast, and (2) wintertime westward-blowing wind-jet bands along the northwestern Saudi Arabian coast, which occur every 10-20 days and can last for several days when occurring. Both wind jets can attain wind speeds over 15 m s-1 and contribute significantly to monthly mean surface wind stress, especially in the cross-axis components, which could be of importance to ocean eddy formation in the Red Sea. The wintertime wind jets can cause significant evaporation and ocean heat loss along the northeastern Red Sea coast and may potentially drive deep convection in that region. An initial characterization of these wind jets is presented. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  17. State-Space Modeling and Performance Analysis of Variable-Speed Wind Turbine Based on a Model Predictive Control Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Bassi

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Advancements in wind energy technologies have led wind turbines from fixed speed to variable speed operation. This paper introduces an innovative version of a variable-speed wind turbine based on a model predictive control (MPC approach. The proposed approach provides maximum power point tracking (MPPT, whose main objective is to capture the maximum wind energy in spite of the variable nature of the wind’s speed. The proposed MPC approach also reduces the constraints of the two main functional parts of the wind turbine: the full load and partial load segments. The pitch angle for full load and the rotating force for the partial load have been fixed concurrently in order to balance power generation as well as to reduce the operations of the pitch angle. A mathematical analysis of the proposed system using state-space approach is introduced. The simulation results using MATLAB/SIMULINK show that the performance of the wind turbine with the MPC approach is improved compared to the traditional PID controller in both low and high wind speeds.

  18. Method to predict fatigue lifetimes of GRP wind turbine blades and comparison with experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Echtermeyer, A.T. [Det Norske Veritas Research AS, Hoevik (Norway); Kensche, C. [Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Stuttgart (Germany, F.R); Bach, P. [Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (ECN), Petten (Netherlands); Poppen, M. [Aeronautical Research Inst. of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden); Lilholt, H.; Andersen, S.I.; Broendsted, P. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

    1996-12-01

    This paper describes a method to predict fatigue lifetimes of fiber reinforced plastics in wind turbine blades. It is based on extensive testing within the EU-Joule program. The method takes the measured fatigue properties of a material into account so that credit can be given to materials with improved fatigue properties. The large number of test results should also give confidence in the fatigue calculation method for fiber reinforced plastics. The method uses the Palmgren-Miner sum to predict lifetimes and is verified by tests using well defined load sequences. Even though this approach is generally well known in fatigue analysis, many details in the interpretation and extrapolation of the measurements need to be clearly defined, since they can influence the results considerably. The following subjects will be described: Method to measure SN curves and to obtain tolerance bounds, development of a constant lifetime diagram, evaluation of the load sequence, use of Palmgren-Miner sum, requirements for load sequence testing. The fatigue lifetime calculation method has been compared against measured data for simple loading sequences and the more complex WISPERX loading sequence for blade roots. The comparison is based on predicted mean lifetimes, using the same materials to obtain the basic SN curves and to measure laminates under complicated loading sequences. 24 refs, 7 figs, 5 tabs

  19. Sensitivity of point scale surface runoff predictions to rainfall resolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Hearman

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the effects of using non-linear, high resolution rainfall, compared to time averaged rainfall on the triggering of hydrologic thresholds and therefore model predictions of infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff at the point scale. The bounded random cascade model, parameterized to three locations in Western Australia, was used to scale rainfall intensities at various time resolutions ranging from 1.875 min to 2 h. A one dimensional, conceptual rainfall partitioning model was used that instantaneously partitioned water into infiltration excess, infiltration, storage, deep drainage, saturation excess and surface runoff, where the fluxes into and out of the soil store were controlled by thresholds. The results of the numerical modelling were scaled by relating soil infiltration properties to soil draining properties, and in turn, relating these to average storm intensities. For all soil types, we related maximum infiltration capacities to average storm intensities (k* and were able to show where model predictions of infiltration excess were most sensitive to rainfall resolution (ln k*=0.4 and where using time averaged rainfall data can lead to an under prediction of infiltration excess and an over prediction of the amount of water entering the soil (ln k*>2 for all three rainfall locations tested. For soils susceptible to both infiltration excess and saturation excess, total runoff sensitivity was scaled by relating drainage coefficients to average storm intensities (g* and parameter ranges where predicted runoff was dominated by infiltration excess or saturation excess depending on the resolution of rainfall data were determined (ln g*<2. Infiltration excess predicted from high resolution rainfall was short and intense, whereas saturation excess produced from low resolution rainfall was more constant and less intense. This has important implications for the accuracy of current hydrological models that use time

  20. The Alignment of the Mean Wind and Stress Vectors in the Unstable Surface Layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernardes, M.; Dias, N. L.

    2010-01-01

    A significant non-alignment between the mean horizontal wind vector and the stress vector was observed for turbulence measurements both above the water surface of a large lake, and over a land surface (soybean crop). Possible causes for this discrepancy such as flow distortion, averaging times and the procedure used for extracting the turbulent fluctuations (low-pass filtering and filter widths etc.), were dismissed after a detailed analysis. Minimum averaging times always less than 30 min were established by calculating ogives, and error bounds for the turbulent stresses were derived with three different approaches, based on integral time scales (first-crossing and lag-window estimates) and on a bootstrap technique. It was found that the mean absolute value of the angle between the mean wind and stress vectors is highly related to atmospheric stability, with the non-alignment increasing distinctively with increasing instability. Given a coordinate rotation that aligns the mean wind with the x direction, this behaviour can be explained by the growth of the relative error of the u- w component with instability. As a result, under more unstable conditions the u- w and the v- w components become of the same order of magnitude, and the local stress vector gives the impression of being non-aligned with the mean wind vector. The relative error of the v- w component is large enough to make it undistinguishable from zero throughout the range of stabilities. Therefore, the standard assumptions of Monin-Obukhov similarity theory hold: it is fair to assume that the v- w stress component is actually zero, and that the non-alignment is a purely statistical effect. An analysis of the dimensionless budgets of the u- w and the v- w components confirms this interpretation, with both shear and buoyant production of u- w decreasing with increasing instability. In the v- w budget, shear production is zero by definition, while buoyancy displays very low-intensity fluctuations around

  1. Prediction of incipient flow boiling from a uniformly heated surface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yin, S.T.; Abdelmessih, A.H.

    1977-01-01

    This study was undertaken to investigate the phenomenon of liquid superheat during incipient boiling in a uniformly heated forced convection channel. Experimental data were obtained using Freon 11 as the test medium. Based on existing theories, an analytical method was developed for predicting the point of termination of nucleate boiling, observed during a decreasing heat flux process with a nucleation activated surface. The method may also be used to predict the point of boiling incipience, observed during an increasing heat flux process with a non-activated surface; this point does not appear to have been treated analytically in previous work. It can be shown that some of the existing models are special cases of the present formulation

  2. Numerically predicting horizontally oriented spent fuel rod surface temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wix, S.D.; Koski, J.A.

    1993-01-01

    A comparison between numerical calculations with use of commercial thermal analysis software packages and experimental data simulating a horizontally oriented spent fuel rod array was performed. Twelve cases were analyzed using air and helium for the fill gas, with three different heat dissipation levels. The numerically predicted temperatures are higher than the experimental data for all levels of heat dissipation with air as the fill gas. The temperature differences are 4 degrees C and 23 degrees C for the low heat dissipation and high dissipation, respectively. The temperature predictions using helium as a fill gas are lower than the experimental data for the low and medium heat dissipation levels. The temperature predictions are 1 degrees C and 6 degrees C lower than the experimental data for the low and medium heat dissipation, respectively. For the high heat dissipation level, the temperature predictions are 16 degrees C higher than the experimental data. Differences between the predicted and experimental temperatures can be attributed to several factors. These factors include a experimental uncertainity in the temperature and heat dissipation measurements, actual convection effects not included in the model, and axial heat flow in the experimental data. This works demonstrates that horizontally oriented spent fuel rod surface temperature predictions can be made using existing commercial software packages. This work also shows that end effects, such as axial heat transfer through the spent fuel rods, will be increasingly important as the amount of dissipated heat increases

  3. Numerically predicting horizontally oriented spent fuel rod surface temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wix, S.D.; Koski, J.A.

    1992-01-01

    A comparison between numerical calculations with use of commercial thermal analysis software packages and experimental data simulating a horizontally oriented spent fuel rod array was performed. Twelve cases were analyzed using air and helium for the fill gas, with three different heat dissipation levels. The numerically predicted temperatures are higher than the experimental data for all levels of heat dissipation with air as the fill gas. The temperature differences are 4 degree C and 23 degree C for the low heat dissipation and high heat dissipation, respectively. The temperature predictions using helium as a fill gas are lower than the experimental data for the low and medium heat dissipation levels. The temperature predictions are 1 degree C and 6 degree C lower than the experimental data for the low and medium heat dissipation, respectively. For the high heat dissipation level, the temperature predictions are 16 degree C higher than the experimental data. Differences between the predicted and experimental temperatures can be attributed to several factors. These factors include experimental uncertainty in the temperature and heat dissipation measurements, actual convection effects not included in the model, and axial heat flow in the experimental data. This work demonstrates that horizontally oriented spent fuel rod surface temperature predictions can be made using existing commercial software packages. This work also shows that end effects, such as axial heat transfer through the spent fuel rods, will be increasingly important as the amount of dissipated heat increases

  4. Validation of a wind tunnel testing facility for blade surface pressure measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuglsang, P.; Antoniou, I.; Soerensen, N.N.; Madsen, H.A.

    1998-04-01

    This report concerns development and validation of a 2d testing facility for airfoil pressure measurements. The VELUX open jet wind tunnel was used with a test stand inserted. Reynolds numbers until 1.3 million were achieved with an airfoil chord of 0.45 m. The aerodynamic load coefficients were found from pressure distribution measurements and the total drag coefficient was calculated from wake rake measurements. Stationary inflow as well as dynamic inflow through pitching motion was possible. Wind tunnel corrections were applied for streamline curvature and down-wash. Even though the wind tunnel is not ideal for 2d testing, the overall quality of the flow was acceptable with a uniform flow field at the test stand position and a turbulence intensity of 1 % at the inlet of the test section. Reference values for free stream static and total pressure were found upstream of the test stand. The NACA 63-215 airfoil was tested and the results were compared with measurements from FFA and NACA. The measurements agreed well except for lift coefficient values at high angles of attack and the drag coefficient values at low angles of attack, that were slightly high. Comparisons of the measured results with numerical predictions from the XFOIL code and the EllipSys2D code showed good agreement. Measurements with the airfoil in pitching motion were carried out to study the dynamic aerodynamic coefficients. Steady inflow measurements at high angles of attack were used to investigate the double stall phenomenon. (au) EFP-94; EFP-95; EFP-97. 8 tabs., 82 ills., 16 refs.

  5. Predicting wind-induced vibrations of high-rise buildings using unsteady CFD and modal analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Yue; Habashi, Wagdi G (Ed); Khurram, Rooh Ul Amin

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the wind-induced vibration of the CAARC standard tall building model, via unsteady Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and a structural modal analysis. In this numerical procedure, the natural unsteady wind in the atmospheric

  6. The impact of urbanization on wind speed and surface aerodynamic characteristics in Beijing during 1991-2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Junkai; Gao, Zhiqiu; Wang, Linlin; Li, Yubin; Gao, Chloe Y.

    2018-06-01

    Urbanization has a significant influence on climate and meteorological conditions through altering surface aerodynamic characteristics. Based on observational data collected at 15 levels on a 325 m meteorological tower in Beijing during 1991-2011, changes in wind speed, vertical profile, aerodynamic roughness length (z0), and zero-plane displacement height (zd) were analyzed. Decreasing trends were observed predominantly during this period, especially for levels between 65 and 140 m where the largest decreasing rates often occur. The annual and seasonal (spring, summer, autumn, and winter) mean wind speeds at 15 levels all present decreasing trends with average rates of 0.029, 0.024, 0.023, 0.040, and 0.019 m s-1 a-1, respectively. The decreases in strong wind categories contribute most to the reduction of mean wind speed. Furthermore, in 2005-2011, the diurnal maximum wind speeds at lower levels tend to appear earlier as compared to those in 1991-1997, while the patterns of diurnal cycle between different levels become more similar in these periods. Besides, the phenomena of "kink" in wind profiles are visible in various atmospheric stabilities, and the average height of a kink has increased from about 40 m to nearly 80 m associated with urbanization during 1991-2011. In addition, the results of z0 and zd calculated using the wind profile method vary with wind directions due to surface heterogeneity and that larger values often occur along with southerly winds. Both z0 and zd show increasing trends in different sectors during 1991-2011, and the annual mean z0 and zd have increased from less than 1 m to greater than 2 m, and from less than 10 m to greater than 20 m, respectively.

  7. On the predictability of land surface fluxes from meteorological variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haughton, Ned; Abramowitz, Gab; Pitman, Andy J.

    2018-01-01

    Previous research has shown that land surface models (LSMs) are performing poorly when compared with relatively simple empirical models over a wide range of metrics and environments. Atmospheric driving data appear to provide information about land surface fluxes that LSMs are not fully utilising. Here, we further quantify the information available in the meteorological forcing data that are used by LSMs for predicting land surface fluxes, by interrogating FLUXNET data, and extending the benchmarking methodology used in previous experiments. We show that substantial performance improvement is possible for empirical models using meteorological data alone, with no explicit vegetation or soil properties, thus setting lower bounds on a priori expectations on LSM performance. The process also identifies key meteorological variables that provide predictive power. We provide an ensemble of empirical benchmarks that are simple to reproduce and provide a range of behaviours and predictive performance, acting as a baseline benchmark set for future studies. We reanalyse previously published LSM simulations and show that there is more diversity between LSMs than previously indicated, although it remains unclear why LSMs are broadly performing so much worse than simple empirical models.

  8. Wind and sunlight shape microbial diversity in surface waters of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryant, Jessica A; Aylward, Frank O; Eppley, John M; Karl, David M; Church, Matthew J; DeLong, Edward F

    2016-06-01

    Few microbial time-series studies have been conducted in open ocean habitats having low seasonal variability such as the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG), where surface waters experience comparatively mild seasonal variation. To better describe microbial seasonal variability in this habitat, we analyzed rRNA amplicon and shotgun metagenomic data over two years at the Hawaii Ocean Time-series Station ALOHA. We postulated that this relatively stable habitat might reveal different environmental factors that influence planktonic microbial community diversity than those previously observed in more seasonally dynamic habitats. Unexpectedly, the data showed that microbial diversity at 25 m was positively correlated with average wind speed 3 to 10 days prior to sampling. In addition, microbial community composition at 25 m exhibited significant correlations with solar irradiance. Many bacterial groups whose relative abundances varied with solar radiation corresponded to taxa known to exhibit strong seasonality in other oceanic regions. Network co-correlation analysis of 25 m communities showed seasonal transitions in composition, and distinct successional cohorts of co-occurring phylogenetic groups. Similar network analyses of metagenomic data also indicated distinct seasonality in genes originating from cyanophage, and several bacterial clades including SAR116 and SAR324. At 500 m, microbial community diversity and composition did not vary significantly with any measured environmental parameters. The minimal seasonal variability in the NPSG facilitated detection of more subtle environmental influences, such as episodic wind variation, on surface water microbial diversity. Community composition in NPSG surface waters varied in response to solar irradiance, but less dramatically than reported in other ocean provinces.

  9. Variations of Sea Surface Temperature, Wind Stress, and Rainfall over the Tropical Atlantic and South America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobre, Paulo; Srukla, J.

    1996-10-01

    Empirical orthogonal functions (E0Fs) and composite analyses are used to investigate the development of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns over the tropical Atlantic. The evolution of large-scale rainfall anomaly patterns over the equatorial Atlantic and South America are also investigated. 71e EOF analyses revealed that a pattern of anomalous SST and wind stress asymmetric relative to the equator is the dominant mode of interannual and longer variability over the tropical Atlantic. The most important findings of this study are as follows.Atmospheric circulation anomalies precede the development of basinwide anomalous SST patterns over the tropical Atlantic. Anomalous SST originate off the African coast simultaneously with atmospheric circulation anomalies and expand westward afterward. The time lag between wind stress relaxation (strengthening) and maximum SST warming (cooling) is about two months.Anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns over northern tropical Atlantic are phase locked to the seasonal cycle. Composite fields of SLP and wind stress over northern tropical Atlantic can be distinguished from random only within a few months preceding the March-May (MAM) season. Observational evidence is presented to show that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the Pacific influences atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies over northern tropical Atlantic through atmospheric teleconnection patterns into higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.The well-known droughts over northeastern Brazil (Nordeste) are a local manifestation of a much larger-scale rainfall anomaly pattern encompassing the whole equatorial Atlantic and Amazon region. Negative rainfall anomalies to the south of the equator during MAM, which is the rainy season for the Nordeste region, are related to an early withdrawal of the intertropical convergence zone toward the warm SST anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic. Also, it is shown that precipitation anomalies

  10. Predicting the aerodynamic characteristics of 2D airfoil and the performance of 3D wind turbine using a CFD code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Bum Suk; Kim, Mann Eung [Korean Register of Shipping, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Young Ho [Korea Maritime Univ., Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2008-07-15

    Despite of the laminar-turbulent transition region co-exist with fully turbulence region around the leading edge of an airfoil, still lots of researchers apply to fully turbulence models to predict aerodynamic characteristics. It is well known that fully turbulent model such as standard k-model couldn't predict the complex stall and the separation behavior on an airfoil accurately, it usually leads to over prediction of the aerodynamic characteristics such as lift and drag forces. So, we apply correlation based transition model to predict aerodynamic performance of the NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) Phase IV wind turbine. And also, compare the computed results from transition model with experimental measurement and fully turbulence results. Results are presented for a range of wind speed, for a NREL Phase IV wind turbine rotor. Low speed shaft torque, power, root bending moment, aerodynamic coefficients of 2D airfoil and several flow field figures results included in this study. As a result, the low speed shaft torque predicted by transitional turbulence model is very good agree with the experimental measurement in whole operating conditions but fully turbulent model(K- {epsilon}) over predict the shaft torque after 7m/s. Root bending moment is also good agreement between the prediction and experiments for most of the operating conditions, especially with the transition model.

  11. Predicting the aerodynamic characteristics of 2D airfoil and the performance of 3D wind turbine using a CFD code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Bum Suk; Kim, Mann Eung; Lee, Young Ho

    2008-01-01

    Despite of the laminar-turbulent transition region co-exist with fully turbulence region around the leading edge of an airfoil, still lots of researchers apply to fully turbulence models to predict aerodynamic characteristics. It is well known that fully turbulent model such as standard k-model couldn't predict the complex stall and the separation behavior on an airfoil accurately, it usually leads to over prediction of the aerodynamic characteristics such as lift and drag forces. So, we apply correlation based transition model to predict aerodynamic performance of the NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) Phase IV wind turbine. And also, compare the computed results from transition model with experimental measurement and fully turbulence results. Results are presented for a range of wind speed, for a NREL Phase IV wind turbine rotor. Low speed shaft torque, power, root bending moment, aerodynamic coefficients of 2D airfoil and several flow field figures results included in this study. As a result, the low speed shaft torque predicted by transitional turbulence model is very good agree with the experimental measurement in whole operating conditions but fully turbulent model(K- ε) over predict the shaft torque after 7m/s. Root bending moment is also good agreement between the prediction and experiments for most of the operating conditions, especially with the transition model

  12. Correlation between sea surface temperature and wind speed in Greenland Sea and their relationships with NAO variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Qu

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO is one of the major causes of many recent changes in the Arctic Ocean. Generally, it is related to wind speed, sea surface temperature (SST, and sea ice cover. In this study, we analyzed the distributions of and correlations between SST, wind speed, NAO, and sea ice cover from 2003 to 2009 in the Greenland Sea at 10°W to 10°E, 65°N to 80°N. SST reached its peak in July, while wind speed reached its minimum in July. Seasonal variability of SST and wind speed was different for different regions. SST and wind speed mainly had negative correlations. Detailed correlation research was focused on the 75°N to 80°N band. Regression analysis shows that in this band, the variation of SST lagged three months behind that of wind speed. Ice cover and NAO had a positive correlation, and the correlation coefficient between ice cover and NAO in the year 2007 was 0.61. SST and NAO also had a positive correlation, and SST influenced NAO one month in advance. The correlation coefficients between SST and NAO reached 0.944 for the year 2005, 0.7 for the year 2008, and 0.74 for the year 2009 after shifting SST one month later. NAO also had a positive correlation with wind speed, and it also influenced wind speed one month in advance. The correlation coefficients between NAO and wind speed reached 0.783, 0.813, and 0.818 for the years 2004, 2005, and 2008, respectively, after shifting wind speed one month earlier.

  13. A Collision Risk Model to Predict Avian Fatalities at Wind Facilities: An Example Using Golden Eagles, Aquila chrysaetos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    New, Leslie; Bjerre, Emily; Millsap, Brian; Otto, Mark C; Runge, Michael C

    2015-01-01

    Wind power is a major candidate in the search for clean, renewable energy. Beyond the technical and economic challenges of wind energy development are environmental issues that may restrict its growth. Avian fatalities due to collisions with rotating turbine blades are a leading concern and there is considerable uncertainty surrounding avian collision risk at wind facilities. This uncertainty is not reflected in many models currently used to predict the avian fatalities that would result from proposed wind developments. We introduce a method to predict fatalities at wind facilities, based on pre-construction monitoring. Our method can directly incorporate uncertainty into the estimates of avian fatalities and can be updated if information on the true number of fatalities becomes available from post-construction carcass monitoring. Our model considers only three parameters: hazardous footprint, bird exposure to turbines and collision probability. By using a Bayesian analytical framework we account for uncertainties in these values, which are then reflected in our predictions and can be reduced through subsequent data collection. The simplicity of our approach makes it accessible to ecologists concerned with the impact of wind development, as well as to managers, policy makers and industry interested in its implementation in real-world decision contexts. We demonstrate the utility of our method by predicting golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) fatalities at a wind installation in the United States. Using pre-construction data, we predicted 7.48 eagle fatalities year-1 (95% CI: (1.1, 19.81)). The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service uses the 80th quantile (11.0 eagle fatalities year-1) in their permitting process to ensure there is only a 20% chance a wind facility exceeds the authorized fatalities. Once data were available from two-years of post-construction monitoring, we updated the fatality estimate to 4.8 eagle fatalities year-1 (95% CI: (1.76, 9.4); 80th quantile, 6

  14. Can foot anthropometric measurements predict dynamic plantar surface contact area?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Collins Natalie

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Previous studies have suggested that increased plantar surface area, associated with pes planus, is a risk factor for the development of lower extremity overuse injuries. The intent of this study was to determine if a single or combination of foot anthropometric measures could be used to predict plantar surface area. Methods Six foot measurements were collected on 155 subjects (97 females, 58 males, mean age 24.5 ± 3.5 years. The measurements as well as one ratio were entered into a stepwise regression analysis to determine the optimal set of measurements associated with total plantar contact area either including or excluding the toe region. The predicted values were used to calculate plantar surface area and were compared to the actual values obtained dynamically using a pressure sensor platform. Results A three variable model was found to describe the relationship between the foot measures/ratio and total plantar contact area (R2 = 0.77, p R2 = 0.76, p Conclusion The results of this study indicate that the clinician can use a combination of simple, reliable, and time efficient foot anthropometric measurements to explain over 75% of the plantar surface contact area, either including or excluding the toe region.

  15. Sand Dune Dynamics on Mars: Integration of Surface Imaging, Wind Measurements, and Orbital Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bridges, N.; Sullivan, R. J., Jr.; Ewing, R. C.; Newman, C. E.; Ayoub, F.; Lapotre, M. G. A.; van Beek, J.

    2016-12-01

    In early 2016, the Mars Science Laboratory rover completed the first in situ investigation of an active dune field on another planetary body, the "Bagnold Dunes" in Gale Crater. During the campaign, a series of Mastcam and RMI time-series images of local sand patches, dump piles, ripples, and the lee face and margin of Namib Dune (a barchan in the Bagnold field) were acquired. These were at cadences of a sol or more that were generally at nearly the same local time, and intra-sol imaging bridged by continuous wind measurements from REMS. The dune field has also been imaged 16 times by HiRISE since 2008. By combining the two datasets, long term dune dynamics over the whole field can be compared to small-scale and short-term observations on the surface. From HiRISE, Namib Dune and other barchans and longitudinal dunes to the south and west migrate generally toward the south to southeast. The most active sand deposits are the longitudinal and barchans dunes, with the highest ripple migration rates found on the highest elevations. Rippled sand patches exhibit little of no motion. From MSL, the scrambling of grains on the surfaces of local rippled sand patches and Namib Dune is obvious over periods as short as a single sol, with light-toned grains showing the greatest tendency. On the lee face of Namib, images show grain scrambling, one case of modification to a secondary grainflow, and possibly ripple motion over 3-16 sols. At the dune margin, grain scrambling and one major slump on the lee face of a dune ripple are seen. The daytime REMS record shows wind speeds up to 20 m/s with confidence. As yet, we do not have a demonstrable correlation between measured wind speeds and changes, suggesting that short term gusts or non-aeolian processes acting as triggers may precede significant activity. The changes, occurring in a low flux season based on HiRISE analysis and global circulation models, indicate an active surface at all times of the year to some degree.

  16. Solar Atmosphere to Earth's Surface: Long Lead Time dB/dt Predictions with the Space Weather Modeling Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welling, D. T.; Manchester, W.; Savani, N.; Sokolov, I.; van der Holst, B.; Jin, M.; Toth, G.; Liemohn, M. W.; Gombosi, T. I.

    2017-12-01

    The future of space weather prediction depends on the community's ability to predict L1 values from observations of the solar atmosphere, which can yield hours of lead time. While both empirical and physics-based L1 forecast methods exist, it is not yet known if this nascent capability can translate to skilled dB/dt forecasts at the Earth's surface. This paper shows results for the first forecast-quality, solar-atmosphere-to-Earth's-surface dB/dt predictions. Two methods are used to predict solar wind and IMF conditions at L1 for several real-world coronal mass ejection events. The first method is an empirical and observationally based system to estimate the plasma characteristics. The magnetic field predictions are based on the Bz4Cast system which assumes that the CME has a cylindrical flux rope geometry locally around Earth's trajectory. The remaining plasma parameters of density, temperature and velocity are estimated from white-light coronagraphs via a variety of triangulation methods and forward based modelling. The second is a first-principles-based approach that combines the Eruptive Event Generator using Gibson-Low configuration (EEGGL) model with the Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM). EEGGL specifies parameters for the Gibson-Low flux rope such that it erupts, driving a CME in the coronal model that reproduces coronagraph observations and propagates to 1AU. The resulting solar wind predictions are used to drive the operational Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) for geospace. Following the configuration used by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, this setup couples the BATS-R-US global magnetohydromagnetic model to the Rice Convection Model (RCM) ring current model and a height-integrated ionosphere electrodynamics model. The long lead time predictions of dB/dt are compared to model results that are driven by L1 solar wind observations. Both are compared to real-world observations from surface magnetometers at a variety of geomagnetic latitudes

  17. The state-of-the-art in short-term prediction of wind power. A literature overview

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giebel, G.; Brownsword, R.; Kariniotakis, G.

    2003-08-01

    Based on an appropriate questionnaire (WP1.1) and some other works already in progress, this report details the state-of-the-art in short term prediction of wind power, mostly summarising nearly all existing literature on the topic. (au)

  18. Prediction of tropical cyclone over North Indian Ocean using WRF model: sensitivity to scatterometer winds, ATOVS and ATMS radiances

    KAUST Repository

    Dodla, Venkata B.; Srinivas, Desamsetti; Dasari, Hari Prasad; Gubbala, Chinna Satyanarayana

    2016-01-01

    prediction with least errors less than 100 km up to 60 hours and producing pre-deepening and deepening periods accurately. The Control and SCAT wind assimilation experiments have shown good track but the errors were 150-200 km and gradual deepening from

  19. A comparison of three approaches for simulating fine-scale surface winds in support of wildland fire management: Part I. Model formulation and comparison against measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jason M. Forthofer; Bret W. Butler; Natalie S. Wagenbrenner

    2014-01-01

    For this study three types of wind models have been defined for simulating surface wind flow in support of wildland fire management: (1) a uniform wind field (typically acquired from coarse-resolution (,4 km) weather service forecast models); (2) a newly developed mass-conserving model and (3) a newly developed mass and momentumconserving model (referred to as the...

  20. High-resolution observations of the near-surface wind field over an isolated mountain and in a steep river canyon

    Science.gov (United States)

    B. W. Butler; N. S. Wagenbrenner; J. M. Forthofer; B. K. Lamb; K. S. Shannon; D. Finn; R. M. Eckman; K. Clawson; L. Bradshaw; P. Sopko; S. Beard; D. Jimenez; C. Wold; M. Vosburgh

    2015-01-01

    A number of numerical wind flow models have been developed for simulating wind flow at relatively fine spatial resolutions (e.g., 100 m); however, there are very limited observational data available for evaluating these high-resolution models. This study presents high-resolution surface wind data sets collected from an isolated mountain and a steep river canyon. The...

  1. Prediction of geomagnetic storms from solar wind data with the use of a neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lundstedt

    Full Text Available An artificial feed-forward neural network with one hidden layer and error back-propagation learning is used to predict the geomagnetic activity index (Dst one hour in advance. The Bz-component and ΣBz, the density, and the velocity of the solar wind are used as input to the network. The network is trained on data covering a total of 8700 h, extracted from the 25-year period from 1963 to 1987, taken from the NSSDC data base. The performance of the network is examined with test data, not included in the training set, which covers 386 h and includes four different storms. Whilst the network predicts the initial and main phase well, the recovery phase is not modelled correctly, implying that a single hidden layer error back-propagation network is not enough, if the measured Dst is not available instantaneously. The performance of the network is independent of whether the raw parameters are used, or the electric field and square root of the dynamical pressure.

  2. A review on the young history of the wind power short-term prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa, Alexandre; Navarro, Jorge [Wind Energy, Division of Renewable Energies, Department of Energy, CIEMAT, Av. Complutense, 22, Ed. 42, 28044 Madrid (Spain); Crespo, Antonio [Laboratorio de Mecanica de Fluidos, Departmento de Ingenieria Energetica y Fluidomecanica, ETSII, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, C/Jose Gutierrez Abascal, 2-28006 Madrid (Spain); Lizcano, Gil [Oxford University Centre for the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY (United Kingdom); Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling - IMM, Technical University of Denmark, Richard Petersens Plads, Building 321, Office 019, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Feitosa, Everaldo [Brazilian Wind Energy Centre - CBEE, Centro de Tecnologia e Geociencias, UFPE-50.740-530 Recife, PE (Brazil)

    2008-08-15

    This paper makes a brief review on 30 years of history of the wind power short-term prediction, since the first ideas and sketches on the theme to the actual state of the art on models and tools, giving emphasis to the most significant proposals and developments. The two principal lines of thought on short-term prediction (mathematical and physical) are indistinctly treated here and comparisons between models and tools are avoided, mainly because, on the one hand, a standard for a measure of performance is still not adopted and, on the other hand, it is very important that the data are exactly the same in order to compare two models (this fact makes it almost impossible to carry out a quantitative comparison between a huge number of models and methods). In place of a quantitative description, a qualitative approach is preferred for this review, remarking the contribution (and innovative aspect) of each model. On the basis of the review, some topics for future research are pointed out. (author)

  3. Homogenization of Tianjin monthly near-surface wind speed using RHtestsV4 for 1951-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Si, Peng; Luo, Chuanjun; Liang, Dongpo

    2018-05-01

    Historical Chinese surface meteorological records provided by the special fund for basic meteorological data from the National Meteorological Information Center (NMIC) were processed to produce accurate wind speed data. Monthly 2-min near-surface wind speeds from 13 observation stations in Tianjin covering 1951-2014 were homogenized using RHtestV4 combined with their metadata. Results indicate that 10 stations had significant breakpoints—77% of the Tianjin stations—suggesting that inhomogeneity was common in the Tianjin wind speed series. Instrument change accounted for most changes, based on the metadata, including changes in type and height, especially for the instrument type. Average positive quantile matching (QM) adjustments were more than negative adjustments at 10 stations; positive biases with a probability density of 0.2 or more were mainly concentrates in the range 0.2 m s-1 to 1.2 m s-1, while the corresponding negative biases were mainly in the range -0.1 to -1.2 m s-1. Here, changes in variances and trends in the monthly mean surface wind speed series at 10 stations before and after adjustment were compared. Climate characteristics of wind speed in Tianjin were more reasonably reflected by the adjusted data; inhomogeneity in wind speed series was largely corrected. Moreover, error analysis reveals that there was a high consistency between the two datasets here and that from the NMIC, with the latter as the reference. The adjusted monthly near-surface wind speed series shows a certain reliability for the period 1951-2014 in Tianjin.

  4. Final Report DE-EE0005380: Assessment of Offshore Wind Farm Effects on Sea Surface, Subsurface and Airborne Electronic Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ling, Hao [The University of Texas at Austin; Hamilton, Mark F. [The University of Texas at Austin Applied Research Laboratories; Bhalla, Rajan [Science Applications International Corporation; Brown, Walter E. [The University of Texas at Austin Applied Research Laboratories; Hay, Todd A. [The University of Texas at Austin Applied Research Laboratories; Whitelonis, Nicholas J. [The University of Texas at Austin; Yang, Shang-Te [The University of Texas at Austin; Naqvi, Aale R. [The University of Texas at Austin

    2013-09-30

    Offshore wind energy is a valuable resource that can provide a significant boost to the US renewable energy portfolio. A current constraint to the development of offshore wind farms is the potential for interference to be caused by large wind farms on existing electronic and acoustical equipment such as radar and sonar systems for surveillance, navigation and communications. The US Department of Energy funded this study as an objective assessment of possible interference to various types of equipment operating in the marine environment where offshore wind farms could be installed. The objective of this project was to conduct a baseline evaluation of electromagnetic and acoustical challenges to sea surface, subsurface and airborne electronic systems presented by offshore wind farms. To accomplish this goal, the following tasks were carried out: (1) survey electronic systems that can potentially be impacted by large offshore wind farms, and identify impact assessment studies and research and development activities both within and outside the US, (2) engage key stakeholders to identify their possible concerns and operating requirements, (3) conduct first-principle modeling on the interactions of electromagnetic signals with, and the radiation of underwater acoustic signals from, offshore wind farms to evaluate the effect of such interactions on electronic systems, and (4) provide impact assessments, recommend mitigation methods, prioritize future research directions, and disseminate project findings. This report provides a detailed description of the methodologies used to carry out the study, key findings of the study, and a list of recommendations derived based the findings.

  5. Wind-sea surface temperature-sea ice relationship in the Chukchi-Beaufort Seas during autumn

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jing; Stegall, Steve T.; Zhang, Xiangdong

    2018-03-01

    Dramatic climate changes, especially the largest sea ice retreat during September and October, in the Chukchi-Beaufort Seas could be a consequence of, and further enhance, complex air-ice-sea interactions. To detect these interaction signals, statistical relationships between surface wind speed, sea surface temperature (SST), and sea ice concentration (SIC) were analyzed. The results show a negative correlation between wind speed and SIC. The relationships between wind speed and SST are complicated by the presence of sea ice, with a negative correlation over open water but a positive correlation in sea ice dominated areas. The examination of spatial structures indicates that wind speed tends to increase when approaching the ice edge from open water and the area fully covered by sea ice. The anomalous downward radiation and thermal advection, as well as their regional distribution, play important roles in shaping these relationships, though wind-driven sub-grid scale boundary layer processes may also have contributions. Considering the feedback loop involved in the wind-SST-SIC relationships, climate model experiments would be required to further untangle the underlying complex physical processes.

  6. Model predictive control of trailing edge flaps on a wind turbine blade

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Castaignet, Damien Bruno

    of the wind turbine fatigue and extreme loads. This potential was confirmed with wind tunnel tests made on blade sections with trailing edge flaps and on a scaled two-bladed wind turbine in a wind tunnel. The work presented in this thesis includes a full-scale test run on a Vestas V27 wind turbine equipped...... fatigue loads by 23%, but also the main shaft and the tower fatigue loads by up to 32%. Extreme loads during normal production also benefit from the trailing edge flaps. At last, the same controller was run on the Vestas V27 wind turbine located at the Risø Campus of the Technical University of Denmark......Trailing edge flaps on wind turbine blades have been investigated for several years. Aero-servoelastic simulations carried out with different simulation tools, trailing edge flaps configurations and controller designs proved that trailing edge flaps are a suitable solution for reducing some...

  7. A history of wind erosion prediction models in the United States Department of Agriculture Prior to the Wind Erosion Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Great Plains experienced an influx of settlers in the late 1850s to 1900. Periodic drought was hard on both settlers and the soil and caused severe wind erosion. The period known as the Dirty Thirties, 1931 to 1939, produced many severe windstorms, and the resulting dusty sky over Washington, D....

  8. Role of sea surface wind stress forcing on transport between Tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Q.

    Using an Indian-Pacific Ocean Circulation Model (IPOM) a simulation study on the Transports of between Tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean such as Indonesian Through flow (ITF) has been done. IPOM covered the area 25°E-70°W, 35°S-60°N. There are 31 levels in the vertical with 22 levels upper 400m in it. The horizontal resolution is 1/3° lat x 1.5° lon between 10°S and 10°N. The coastline and ocean topography of IPOM is prepared from Scripps topography data on 1x1°grid. Forcing IPOM with monthly observational wind stress in 1990-1999 the interannual variation of sea temperature has been reproduced well, not only on El Nino in the Pacific but also on Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Therefore, the oceanic circulations in the tropical ocean are reasonable. The analyses of the oceanic circulations from the simulations suggest that the transport southward through Makassar Strait is the primary route of thermocline water masses from the North Pacific to the Indonesian sea. The transport westward through Bali-Western Australian Transect (BWAT, at 117.5E) can be thought as the final output of ITF through the archipelago to Indian Ocean. The transport westward through BWAT is in 8-12S above 150m, its core centered near surface 10S, which looks like a jet. The westward velocity is more than 50 cm/s. The transport shows significant seasonal and interannual variations. The maximum is in Jul-Oct, minimum in Jan-Mar. These results are consistent with some observation basically. The correlation analyses indict that the variations of transport westward is related with the southeasterly anomaly in the east tropical Indian ocean. The transport variation lags wind anomaly about 3 months. The correlation coefficient is more than 0.6. The transport is strong during IOD, for example in 1994 and 1997. The variations are also related with the northwesterly anomaly in the center equatorial Pacific and the easterly in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The transport is strong in most ENSO

  9. Wind Tunnel Study on Flows over Various Two-dimensional Idealized Urban-liked Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Yat-Kiu; Liu, Chun-Ho

    2013-04-01

    Extensive human activities (e.g. increased traffic emissions) emit a wide range of pollutants resulting in poor urban area air quality. Unlike open, flat and homogenous rural terrain, urban surface is complicated by the presence of buildings, obstacles and narrow streets. The irregular urban surfaces thus form a random roughness that further modifies the near-surface flows and pollutant dispersion. In this study, a physical modelling approach is employed to commence a series of wind tunnel experiments to study the urban-area air pollution problems. The flow characteristics over different hypothetical urban roughness surfaces were studied in a wind tunnel in isothermal conditions. Preliminary experiments were conducted based on six types of idealized two-dimensional (2D) street canyon models with various building-height-to-street-width (aspect) ratios (ARs) 1, 1/2, 1/4, 1/8, 1/10 and 1/12. The main instrumentation is an in-house 90o X-hotwire anemometry. In each set of configuration, a sampling street canyon was selected near the end of the streamwise domain. Its roof level, i.e. the transverse between the mid points of the upstream and downstream buildings, was divided into eight segments. The measurements were then recorded on the mid-plane of the spannwise domain along the vertical profile (from building roof level to the ceiling of wind tunnel) of the eight segments. All the data acquisition processes were handled by the NI data acquisition modules, NI 9239 and CompactDAQ-9188 hardware. Velocity calculation was carried out in the post-processing stage on a digital computer. The two-component flow velocities and velocity fluctuations were calculated at each sampling points, therefore, for each model, a streamwise average of eight vertical profiles of mean velocity and velocity fluctuations was presented. A plot of air-exchange rate (ACH) against ARs was also presented in order to examine the ventilation performance of different tested models. Preliminary results

  10. Effects of wind on the dynamics of the central jet during drop impact onto a deep-water surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xinan; Wang, An; Wang, Shuang; Dai, Dejun

    2018-05-01

    The cavity and central jet generated by the impact of a single water drop on a deep-water surface in a wind field are experimentally studied. Different experiments are performed by varying the impacting drop diameter and wind speed. The contour profile histories of the cavity (also called crater) and central jet (also called stalk) are measured in detail with a backlit cinematic shadowgraph technique. The results show that shortly after the drop hits the water surface an asymmetrical cavity appears along the wind direction, with a train of capillary waves on the cavity wall. This is followed by the formation of an inclined central jet at the location of the drop impact. It is found that the wind has little effect on the penetration depth of the cavity at the early stage of the cavity expansion, but markedly changes the capillary waves during the retraction of the cavity. The capillary waves in turn shift the position of the central jet formation leeward. The dynamics of the central jet are dominated by two mechanisms: (i) the oblique drop impact produced by the wind and (ii) the wind drag force directly acting on the jet. The maximum height of the central jet, called the stalk height, is drastically affected by the wind, and the nondimensional stalk height H /D decreases with increasing θ Re-1 , where D is the drop diameter, θ is the impingement angle of drop impact, and Re=ρaUwD /μa is the Reynolds number with air density ρa, wind speed Uw, and air viscosity μa.

  11. Prediction of water droplet evaporation on zircaloy surface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chi Young; In, Wang Kee

    2014-01-01

    In the present experimental study, the prediction of water droplet evaporation on a zircaloy surface was investigated using various initial droplet sizes. To the best of our knowledge, this may be the first valuable effort for understanding the details of water droplet evaporation on a zircaloy surface. The initial contact diameters of the water droplets tested ranged from 1.76 to 3.41 mm. The behavior (i.e., time-dependent droplet volume, contact angle, droplet height, and contact diameter) and mode-transition time of the water droplet evaporation were strongly influenced by the initial droplet size. Using the normalized contact angle (θ*) and contact diameter (d*), the transitions between evaporation modes were successfully expressed by a single curve, and their criteria were proposed. To predict the temporal droplet volume change and evaporation rate, the range of θ* > 0.25 and d* > 0.9, which mostly covered the whole evaporation period and the initial contact diameter remained almost constant during evaporation, was targeted. In this range, the previous contact angle functions for the evaporation model underpredicted the experimental data. A new contact angle function of a zircaloy surface was empirically proposed, which represented the present experimental data within a reasonable degree of accuracy. (author)

  12. Investigating the role of wind in generating surface currents over the slope area of the Laptev Sea, Arctic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patteson, R. N.

    2017-12-01

    Mixing mechanisms of the Arctic Ocean have profound impacts on sea ice, global ocean dynamics, and arctic communities. This project used a two-year long time series of ocean current velocities collected from eight moorings located on the Eurasian basin, as well as ERA-interim wind data, to compare and assess relationships between current and wind velocities at different depths. Determining the strength of these correlations will further scientific understanding of the degree to which wind influences mixing, with implications for heat flux, diffusion, and sea ice changes. Using statistical analysis, I calculated whether a significant relationship between wind velocity and ocean currents existed beginning at the surface level ( 50m) .The final correlation values, ranging from R = 0.11 to R = 0.28, indicated a weak relationship between wind velocity and ocean currents at the surface for all eight mooring sites. The results for the surface depth imply that correlation likely decreases with increasing depths, and thus further testing of deeper depth levels was unnecessary. This finding suggests that there is another dominant factor at play in the ocean; we postulate that topography exerts a significant influence on subsurface mixing. This study highlights the need for further research of the different mechanisms and their importance in influencing the dynamic structure of the ocean.

  13. Trends in significant wave height and surface wind speed in the China Seas between 1988 and 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Chongwei; Zhang, Ren; Shi, Weilai; Li, Xin; Chen, Xuan

    2017-10-01

    Wind and waves are key components of the climate system as they drive air-sea interactions and influence weather systems and atmospheric circulation. In marine environments, understanding surface wind and wave fields and their evolution over time is important for conducting safe and efficient human activities, such as navigation and engineering. This study considers long-term trends in the sea surface wind speed (WS) and significant wave height (SWH) in the China Seas over the period 1988-2011 using the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) ocean surface wind product and a 24-year hindcast wave dataset obtained from the WAVEWATCH-III (WW3) wave model forced with CCMP winds. The long-term trends in WS and SWH in the China Seas are analyzed over the past 24 years to provide a reference point from which to assess future climate change and offshore wind and wave energy resource development in the region. Results demonstrate that over the period 1988-2011 in the China Seas: 1) WS and SWH showed a significant increasing trend of 3.38 cm s-1 yr-1 and 1.52 cm yr-1, respectively; 2) there were notable regional differences in the long-term trends of WS and SWH; 3) areas with strong increasing trends were located mainly in the middle of the Tsushima Strait, the northern and southern areas of the Taiwan Strait, and in nearshore regions of the northern South China Sea; and 4) the long-term trend in WS was closely associated with El Niño and a significant increase in the occurrence of gale force winds in the region.

  14. Wind Structure and Wind Loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brorsen, Michael

    The purpose of this note is to provide a short description of wind, i.e. of the flow in the atmosphere of the Earth and the loading caused by wind on structures. The description comprises: causes to the generation of windhe interaction between wind and the surface of the Earthhe stochastic nature...

  15. Predictions of Resuspension of Highway Detention Pond Deposits in Interrain Event Periods due to Wind-Induced Currents and Waves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bentzen, Thomas Ruby; Larsen, Torben; Rasmussen, Michael R.

    2009-01-01

    -shear stress induced by the return flow near the bed and waves both generated by the wind. Wind statistics for 30 years have been applied for prediction of the annual discharged bulk of suspended solids and associated pollutants; fluoranthene, benzo(b)fluoranthene, benzo(k)fluoranthene, benzo(a)pyrene, dibenzo......(a,h)anthracene and indeno(1,2,3-cd)pyrene (PAHs) and the heavy metals of cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc. The current and wave-generated bed-shear stresses entail a discharged bulk of pollutants corresponding to approximately 10% of the annual accumulation of pollutants in the present pond due...

  16. Stochastic Model Predictive Fault Tolerant Control Based on Conditional Value at Risk for Wind Energy Conversion System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun-Tao Shi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Wind energy has been drawing considerable attention in recent years. However, due to the random nature of wind and high failure rate of wind energy conversion systems (WECSs, how to implement fault-tolerant WECS control is becoming a significant issue. This paper addresses the fault-tolerant control problem of a WECS with a probable actuator fault. A new stochastic model predictive control (SMPC fault-tolerant controller with the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR objective function is proposed in this paper. First, the Markov jump linear model is used to describe the WECS dynamics, which are affected by many stochastic factors, like the wind. The Markov jump linear model can precisely model the random WECS properties. Second, the scenario-based SMPC is used as the controller to address the control problem of the WECS. With this controller, all the possible realizations of the disturbance in prediction horizon are enumerated by scenario trees so that an uncertain SMPC problem can be transformed into a deterministic model predictive control (MPC problem. Finally, the CVaR object function is adopted to improve the fault-tolerant control performance of the SMPC controller. CVaR can provide a balance between the performance and random failure risks of the system. The Min-Max performance index is introduced to compare the fault-tolerant control performance with the proposed controller. The comparison results show that the proposed method has better fault-tolerant control performance.

  17. Modeling and control design of a stand alone wind energy conversion system based on functional model predictive control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kassem, Ahmed M. [Beni-Suef University, Electrical Dept., Beni Suef (Egypt)

    2012-09-15

    This paper investigates the application of the model predictive control (MPC) approach to control the voltage and frequency of a stand alone wind generation system. This scheme consists of a wind turbine which drives an induction generator feeding an isolated load. A static VAR compensator is connected at the induction generator terminals to regulate the load voltage. The rotor speed, and thereby the load frequency are controlled via adjusting the mechanical power input using the blade pitch-angle. The MPC is used to calculate the optimal control actions including system constraints. To alleviate computational effort and to reduce numerical problems, particularly in large prediction horizon, an exponentially weighted functional model predictive control (FMPC) is employed. Digital simulations have been carried out in order to validate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme. The proposed controller has been tested through step changes in the wind speed and the load impedance. Simulation results show that adequate performance of the proposed wind energy scheme has been achieved. Moreover, this scheme is robust against the parameters variation and eliminates the influence of modeling and measurement errors. (orig.)

  18. Pesticide volatilization from soil and plant surfaces: Measurements at different scales versus model predictions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolters, A.

    2003-07-01

    Simulation of pesticide volatilization from plant and soil surfaces as an integral component of pesticide fate models is of utmost importance, especially as part of the PEC (predicted environmental concentrations) models used in the registration procedures for pesticides. Experimentally determined volatilization rates at different scales were compared to model predictions to improve recent approaches included in European registration models. To assess the influence of crucial factors affecting volatilization under well-defined conditions, a laboratory chamber was set-up and validated. Aerodynamic conditions were adjusted to fulfill the requirements of the German guideline on assessing pesticide volatilization for registration purposes. At the semi-field scale, volatilization rates were determined in a wind-tunnel study after soil surface application of pesticides to gleyic cambisol. The following descending order of cumulative volatilization was observed: chlorpyrifos > parathion-methyl > terbuthylazine > fenpropimorph. Parameterization of the models PEARL (pesticide emission assessment at regional and local scales) and PELMO (pesticide leaching model) was performed to mirror the experimental boundary conditions. (orig.)

  19. Measurement of temperature and pressure on the surface of a blunt cone using FBG sensor in hypersonic wind tunnel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, A. S. Guru; Sharath, U.; Nagarjun, V.; Hegde, G. M.; Asokan, S.

    2013-09-01

    Measurement of temperature and pressure exerted on the leeward surface of a blunt cone specimen has been demonstrated in the present work in a hypersonic wind tunnel using fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensors. The experiments were conducted on a 30° apex-angle blunt cone with 51 mm base diameter at wind flow speeds of Mach 6.5 and 8.35 in a 300 mm hypersonic wind tunnel of Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore. A special pressure insensitive temperature sensor probe along with the conventional bare FBG sensors was used for explicit temperature and aerodynamic pressure measurement respectively on the leeward surface of the specimen. computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation of the flow field around the blunt cone specimen has also been carried out to obtain the temperature and pressure at conditions analogous to experiments. The results obtained from FBG sensors and the CFD simulations are found to be in good agreement with each other.

  20. Measurement of temperature and pressure on the surface of a blunt cone using FBG sensor in hypersonic wind tunnel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guru Prasad, A S; Sharath, U; Asokan, S; Nagarjun, V; Hegde, G M

    2013-01-01

    Measurement of temperature and pressure exerted on the leeward surface of a blunt cone specimen has been demonstrated in the present work in a hypersonic wind tunnel using fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensors. The experiments were conducted on a 30° apex-angle blunt cone with 51 mm base diameter at wind flow speeds of Mach 6.5 and 8.35 in a 300 mm hypersonic wind tunnel of Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore. A special pressure insensitive temperature sensor probe along with the conventional bare FBG sensors was used for explicit temperature and aerodynamic pressure measurement respectively on the leeward surface of the specimen. computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation of the flow field around the blunt cone specimen has also been carried out to obtain the temperature and pressure at conditions analogous to experiments. The results obtained from FBG sensors and the CFD simulations are found to be in good agreement with each other. (paper)

  1. The impact of grid and spectral nudging on the variance of the near-surface wind speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vincent, Claire Louise; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2015-01-01

    Grid and spectral nudging are effective ways of preventing drift from large scale weather patterns in regional climate models. However, the effect of nudging on the wind-speed variance is unclear. In this study, the impact of grid and spectral nudging on near-surface and upper boundary layer wind...... nudging at and above 1150 m above ground level (AGL). Nested 5 km simulations are not nudged directly, but inherit boundary conditions from the 15 km experiments. Spatial and temporal spectra show that grid nudging causes smoothing of the wind in the 15 km domain at all wavenumbers, both at 1150 m AGL...... and near the surface where nudging is not applied directly, while spectral nudging mainly affects longer wavenumbers. Maps of mesoscale variance show spatial smoothing for both grid and spectral nudging, although the effect is less pronounced for spectral nudging. On the inner, 5 km domain, an indirect...

  2. Power and loads for wind turbines in yawed conditions. Analysis of field measurements and aerodynamic predictions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boorsma, K. [ECN Wind Energy, Petten (Netherlands)

    2012-11-15

    A description is given of the work carried out within the framework of the FLOW (Far and Large Offshore Wind) project on single turbine performance in yawed flow conditions. Hereto both field measurements as well as calculations with an aerodynamic code are analyzed. The rotors of horizontal axis wind turbines follow the changes in the wind direction for optimal performance. The reason is that the power is expected to decrease for badly oriented rotors. So, insight in the effects of the yaw angle on performance is important for optimization of the yaw control of each individual turbine. The effect of misalignment on performance and loads of a single 2.5 MW wind turbine during normal operation is investigated. Hereto measurements at the ECN Wind Turbine Test Site Wieringermeer (EWTW) are analyzed from December 2004 until April 2009. Also, the influence of yaw is studied using a design code and results from this design code are compared with wind tunnel measurements.

  3. Short-term wind speed prediction based on the wavelet transformation and Adaboost neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hai, Zhou; Xiang, Zhu; Haijian, Shao; Ji, Wu

    2018-03-01

    The operation of the power grid will be affected inevitably with the increasing scale of wind farm due to the inherent randomness and uncertainty, so the accurate wind speed forecasting is critical for the stability of the grid operation. Typically, the traditional forecasting method does not take into account the frequency characteristics of wind speed, which cannot reflect the nature of the wind speed signal changes result from the low generality ability of the model structure. AdaBoost neural network in combination with the multi-resolution and multi-scale decomposition of wind speed is proposed to design the model structure in order to improve the forecasting accuracy and generality ability. The experimental evaluation using the data from a real wind farm in Jiangsu province is given to demonstrate the proposed strategy can improve the robust and accuracy of the forecasted variable.

  4. Predicting Atmospheric Ionization and Excitation by Precipitating SEP and Solar Wind Protons Measured By MAVEN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolitz, Rebecca; Dong, Chuanfei; Lee, Christina; Lillis, Rob; Brain, David; Curry, Shannon; Halekas, Jasper; Bougher, Stephen W.; Jakosky, Bruce

    2017-10-01

    Precipitating energetic particles ionize and excite planetary atmospheres, increasing electron content and producing aurora. At Mars, the solar wind and solar energetic particles (SEPs) can precipitate directly into the atmosphere because solar wind protons can charge exchange to become neutral and pass the magnetosheath, and SEPs are sufficiently energetic to cross the magnetosheath unchanged. We will compare ionization and Lyman alpha emission rates for solar wind and SEP protons during nominal solar activity and a CME shock front impact event on May 16 2016. We will use the Atmospheric Scattering of Protons and Energetic Neutrals (ASPEN) model to compare excitation and ionization rates by SEPs and solar wind protons currently measured by the SWIA (Solar Wind Ion Analyzer) and SEP instruments aboard the MAVEN spacecraft. Results will help quantify how SEP and solar wind protons influence atmospheric energy deposition during solar minimum.

  5. Predicting daylight illuminance on inclined surfaces using sky luminance data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, D.H.W.; Lau, C.C.S.; Lam, J.C. [City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon (China). Dept. of Building and Construction

    2005-07-01

    Daylight illuminance, particularly on vertical surfaces, plays a major role in determining and evaluating the daylighting performance of a building. In many parts of the world, however, the basic daylight illuminance data for various vertical planes are not always readily available. The usual method to obtain diffuse illuminance on tilted planes would be based on inclined surface models using data from the horizontal measurements. Alternatively, the diffuse illuminance on a sloping plane can be computed by integrating the luminance distribution of the sky 'seen' by the plane. This paper presents an approach to estimate the vertical outdoor illuminance from sky luminance data and solar geometry. Sky luminance data recorded from January 1999 to December 2001 in Hong Kong and generated by two well-known sky luminance models (Kittler and Perez) were used to compute the outdoor illuminance for the four principal vertical planes (N, E, S and W). The performance of this approach was evaluated against data measured in the same period. Statistical analysis indicated that using sky luminance distributions to predict outdoor illuminance can give reasonably good agreement with measured data for all vertical surfaces. The findings provide an accurate alternative to determine the amount of daylight on vertical as well as other inclined surfaces when sky luminance data are available. (author)

  6. Investigation of Airflow Patterns in a New Design of Wind Tower with a Wetted Surface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madjid Soltani

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Passive cooling systems, such as wind towers, can help to reduce energy consumption in buildings and at the same time reduce greenhouse gas (GHG emissions. Wind towers can naturally ventilate buildings and also can create enhanced thermal comfort for occupants during the warm months. This study proposes a modern wind tower design with a moistened pad. The new design includes a fixed column, a rotating and movable head, an air opening with a screen, and two windows at the end of the column. The wind tower can be installed on roof-tops to take advantage of ambient airflow. The wind tower’s head can be controlled manually or automatically to capture optimum wind velocity based on desired thermal condition. To maximize its performance, a small pump was considered to circulate and spray water on an evaporative cooling pad. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD simulation of airflow around and inside the proposed wind tower is conducted to analyze the ventilation performance of this new design of wind tower. Thereby, the velocity, total pressure, and pressure coefficient distributions around and within the wind tower for different wind velocities are examined. The simulation results illustrate that the new wind tower design with a moistened pad can be a reasonable solution to improve naturally the thermal comfort of buildings in hot and dry climates.

  7. Relative performance of different numerical weather prediction models for short term predition of wind wnergy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giebel, G; Landberg, L [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Moennich, K; Waldl, H P [Carl con Ossietzky Univ., Faculty of Physics, Dept. of Energy and Semiconductor, Oldenburg (Germany)

    1999-03-01

    In several approaches presented in other papers in this conference, short term forecasting of wind power for a time horizon covering the next two days is done on the basis of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. This paper explores the relative merits of HIRLAM, which is the model used by the Danish Meteorological Institute, the Deutschlandmodell from the German Weather Service and the Nested Grid Model used in the US. The performance comparison will be mainly done for a site in Germany which is in the forecasting area of both the Deutschlandmodell and HIRLAM. In addition, a comparison of measured data with the forecasts made for one site in Iowa will be included, which allows conclusions on the merits of all three models. Differences in the relative performances could be due to a better tailoring of one model to its country, or to a tighter grid, or could be a function of the distance between the grid points and the measuring site. Also the amount, in which the performance can be enhanced by the use of model output statistics (topic of other papers in this conference) could give insights into the performance of the models. (au)

  8. A new geometrical construction using rounded surfaces proposed for the transverse flux machine for direct drive wind turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Argeseanu, Alin; Nica, Florin Valentin Traian; Ritchie, Ewen

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a new construction for transverse flux machines (TFM) using a rounded surfaces core geometry. The new concept has been developed for TFM with U core geometry. In this case a new analytic design procedure was proposed. The analytic design of the new TFM construction is further ...... proposed concept is more attractive for the direct-drive wind turbine application....

  9. Validation of simulations of an underwater acoustic communication channel characterized by wind-generated surface waves and bubbles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dol, H.S.; Colin, M.E.G.D.; Ainlie, M.A.; Gerdes, F.; Schäfke, A.; Özkan Sertlekc, H.

    2013-01-01

    This paper shows that it is possible to simulate realistic shallow-water acoustic communication channels using available acoustic propagation models. Key factor is the incorporation of realistic time-dependent sea surface conditions, including both waves and bubbles due to wind.

  10. An evaluation of WRF's ability to reproduce the surface wind over complex terrain based on typical circulation patterns.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiménez, P.A.; Dudhia, J.; González-Rouco, J.F.; Montávez, J.P.; Garcia-Bustamante, E.; Navarro, J.; Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, J.; Munoz-Roldán, A.

    2013-01-01

    [1] The performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to reproduce the surface wind circulations over complex terrain is examined. The atmospheric evolution is simulated using two versions of the WRF model during an over 13¿year period (1992 to 2005) over a complex terrain region

  11. Organic Matter in the Surface Microlayer: Insights From a Wind Wave Channel Experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anja Engel

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The surface microlayer (SML is the uppermost thin layer of the ocean and influencing interactions between the air and sea, such as gas exchange, atmospheric deposition and aerosol emission. Organic matter (OM plays a key role in air-sea exchange processes, but studying how the accumulation of organic compounds in the SML relates to biological processes is impeded in the field by a changing physical environment, in particular wind speed and wave breaking. Here, we studied OM dynamics in the SML under controlled physical conditions in a large annular wind wave channel, filled with natural seawater, over a period of 26 days. Biology in both SML and bulk water was dominated by bacterioneuston and -plankton, respectively, while autotrophic biomass in the two compartments was very low. In general, SML thickness was related to the concentration of dissolved organic carbon (DOC but not to enrichment of DOC or of specific OM components in the SML. Pronounced changes in OM enrichment and molecular composition were observed in the course of the study and correlated significantly to bacterial abundance. Thereby, hydrolysable amino acids, in particular arginine, were more enriched in the SML than combined carbohydrates. Amino acid composition indicated that less degraded OM accumulated preferentially in the SML. A strong correlation was established between the amount of surfactants coverage and γ-aminobutric acid, suggesting that microbial cycling of amino acids can control physiochemical traits of the SML. Our study shows that accumulation and cycling of OM in the SML can occur independently of recent autotrophic production, indicating a widespread biogenic control of process across the air-sea exchange.

  12. Optimal Real-Time Scheduling for Hybrid Energy Storage Systems and Wind Farms Based on Model Predictive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Xiong

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Energy storage devices are expected to be more frequently implemented in wind farms in near future. In this paper, both pumped hydro and fly wheel storage systems are used to assist a wind farm to smooth the power fluctuations. Due to the significant difference in the response speeds of the two storages types, the wind farm coordination with two types of energy storage is a problem. This paper presents two methods for the coordination problem: a two-level hierarchical model predictive control (MPC method and a single-level MPC method. In the single-level MPC method, only one MPC controller coordinates the wind farm and the two storage systems to follow the grid scheduling. Alternatively, in the two-level MPC method, two MPC controllers are used to coordinate the wind farm and the two storage systems. The structure of two level MPC consists of outer level and inner level MPC. They run alternatively to perform real-time scheduling and then stop, thus obtaining long-term scheduling results and sending some results to the inner level as input. The single-level MPC method performs both long- and short-term scheduling tasks in each interval. The simulation results show that the methods proposed can improve the utilization of wind power and reduce wind power spillage. In addition, the single-level MPC and the two-level MPC are not interchangeable. The single-level MPC has the advantage of following the grid schedule while the two-level MPC can reduce the optimization time by 60%.

  13. An Airborne Campaign Measuring Wind Signatures from the Sea Surface using an L-band Polarimetric Radiometer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søbjærg, Sten Schmidl; Skou, Niels

    2003-01-01

    A series of circle flights have been carried out over the sea surface, using the EMIRAD L-band polarimetric radiometer. Motion compensation is applied, and polarimetric azimuth signatures are generated. Single tracks show geophysical noise, typically about 2 K, but averaging decreases the noise, ......, but a comparison of the signature to the downwelling galactic background radiation indicates, that the signature may not origin from the wind driven sea surface pattern....

  14. Near-surface wind variability over the broader Adriatic region: insights from an ensemble of regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belušić, Andreina; Prtenjak, Maja Telišman; Güttler, Ivan; Ban, Nikolina; Leutwyler, David; Schär, Christoph

    2018-06-01

    Over the past few decades the horizontal resolution of regional climate models (RCMs) has steadily increased, leading to a better representation of small-scale topographic features and more details in simulating dynamical aspects, especially in coastal regions and over complex terrain. Due to its complex terrain, the broader Adriatic region represents a major challenge to state-of-the-art RCMs in simulating local wind systems realistically. The objective of this study is to identify the added value in near-surface wind due to the refined grid spacing of RCMs. For this purpose, we use a multi-model ensemble composed of CORDEX regional climate simulations at 0.11° and 0.44° grid spacing, forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, a COSMO convection-parameterizing simulation at 0.11° and a COSMO convection-resolving simulation at 0.02° grid spacing. Surface station observations from this region and satellite QuikSCAT data over the Adriatic Sea have been compared against daily output obtained from the available simulations. Both day-to-day wind and its frequency distribution are examined. The results indicate that the 0.44° RCMs rarely outperform ERA-Interim reanalysis, while the performance of the high-resolution simulations surpasses that of ERA-Interim. We also disclose that refining the grid spacing to a few km is needed to properly capture the small-scale wind systems. Finally, we show that the simulations frequently yield the accurate angle of local wind regimes, such as for the Bora flow, but overestimate the associated wind magnitude. Finally, spectral analysis shows good agreement between measurements and simulations, indicating the correct temporal variability of the wind speed.

  15. Aerodynamic noise prediction of a Horizontal Axis Wind Turbine using Improved Delayed Detached Eddy Simulation and acoustic analogy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghasemian, Masoud; Nejat, Amir

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The noise predictions are performed by Ffowcs Williams and Hawkings method. • There is a direct relation between the radiated noise and the wind speed. • The tonal peaks in the sound spectra match with the blade passing frequency. • The quadrupole noises have negligible effect on the low frequency noises. - Abstract: This paper presents the results of the aerodynamic and aero-acoustic prediction of the flow field around the National Renewable Energy Laboratory Phase VI wind turbine. The Improved Delayed Detached Eddy Simulation turbulence model is applied to obtain the instantaneous turbulent flow field. The noise prediction is carried out using the Ffowcs Williams and Hawkings acoustic analogy. Simulations are performed for three different inflow conditions, U = 7, 10, 15 m/s. The capability of the Improved Delayed Detached Eddy Simulation turbulence model in massive separation is verified with available experimental data for pressure coefficient. The broadband noises of the turbulent boundary layers and the tonal noises due to the blade passing frequency are predicted via flow field noise simulation. The contribution of the thickness, loading and quadrupole noises are investigated, separately. The results indicated that there is a direct relation between the strength of the radiated noise and the wind speed. Furthermore, the effect of the receiver location on the Overall Sound Pressure Level is investigated

  16. Very short-term spatio-temporal wind power prediction using a censored Gaussian field

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baxevani, Anastassia; Lenzi, Amanda

    2018-01-01

    Wind power is a renewable energy resource, that has relatively cheap installation costs and it is highly possible that will become the main energy resource in the near future. Wind power needs to be integrated efficiently into electricity grids, and to optimize the power dispatch, techniques...

  17. Energy Yield Prediction of Offshore Wind Farm Clusters at the EERA-DTOC European Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cantero, E.; Hasager, Charlotte Bay; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan

    2014-01-01

    third-party models. Wake models have been benchmarked on the Horns Rev and, currently, on the Lilgrund wind farm test cases. Dedicated experiments from ‘BARD Offshore 1’ wind farm will using scanning lidars will produce new data for the validation of wake models. Furthermore, the project includes power...

  18. Energy yield prediction of offshore wind farm clusters at the EERA-DTOC European project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cantero, E.; Sanz, J.; Lorenzo, S.

    2013-01-01

    third-party models. Wake models have been benchmarked on the Horns Rev and, currently, on the Lilgrund wind farm test cases. Dedicated experiments from ‘BARD Offshore 1’ wind farm will using scanning lidars will produce new data for the validation of wake models. Furthermore, the project includes power...

  19. Exploring the link between multiscale entropy and fractal scaling behavior in near-surface wind.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Nogueira

    Full Text Available The equivalency between the power law behavior of Multiscale Entropy (MSE and of power spectra opens a promising path for interpretation of complex time-series, which is explored here for the first time for atmospheric fields. Additionally, the present manuscript represents a new independent empirical validation of such relationship, the first one for the atmosphere. The MSE-fractal relationship is verified for synthetic fractal time-series covering the full range of exponents typically observed in the atmosphere. It is also verified for near-surface wind observations from anemometers and CFSR re-analysis product. The results show a ubiquitous β ≈ 5/3 behavior inside the inertial range. A scaling break emerges at scales around a few seconds, with a tendency towards 1/f noise. The presence, extension and fractal exponent of this intermediate range are dependent on the particular surface forcing and atmospheric conditions. MSE shows an identical picture which is consistent with the turbulent energy cascade model: viscous dissipation at the small-scale end of the inertial range works as an information sink, while at the larger (energy-containing scales the multiple forcings in the boundary layer act as widespread information sources. Another scaling transition occurs at scales around 1-10 days, with an abrupt flattening of the spectrum. MSE shows that this transition corresponds to a maximum of the new information introduced, occurring at the time-scales of the synoptic features that dominate weather patterns. At larger scales, a scaling regime with flatter slopes emerges extending to scales larger than 1 year. MSE analysis shows that the amount of new information created decreases with increasing scale in this low-frequency regime. Additionally, in this region the energy injection is concentrated in two large energy peaks: daily and yearly time-scales. The results demonstrate that the superposition of these periodic signals does not destroy the

  20. Exploring the link between multiscale entropy and fractal scaling behavior in near-surface wind.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nogueira, Miguel

    2017-01-01

    The equivalency between the power law behavior of Multiscale Entropy (MSE) and of power spectra opens a promising path for interpretation of complex time-series, which is explored here for the first time for atmospheric fields. Additionally, the present manuscript represents a new independent empirical validation of such relationship, the first one for the atmosphere. The MSE-fractal relationship is verified for synthetic fractal time-series covering the full range of exponents typically observed in the atmosphere. It is also verified for near-surface wind observations from anemometers and CFSR re-analysis product. The results show a ubiquitous β ≈ 5/3 behavior inside the inertial range. A scaling break emerges at scales around a few seconds, with a tendency towards 1/f noise. The presence, extension and fractal exponent of this intermediate range are dependent on the particular surface forcing and atmospheric conditions. MSE shows an identical picture which is consistent with the turbulent energy cascade model: viscous dissipation at the small-scale end of the inertial range works as an information sink, while at the larger (energy-containing) scales the multiple forcings in the boundary layer act as widespread information sources. Another scaling transition occurs at scales around 1-10 days, with an abrupt flattening of the spectrum. MSE shows that this transition corresponds to a maximum of the new information introduced, occurring at the time-scales of the synoptic features that dominate weather patterns. At larger scales, a scaling regime with flatter slopes emerges extending to scales larger than 1 year. MSE analysis shows that the amount of new information created decreases with increasing scale in this low-frequency regime. Additionally, in this region the energy injection is concentrated in two large energy peaks: daily and yearly time-scales. The results demonstrate that the superposition of these periodic signals does not destroy the underlying

  1. The variation in visibility and its relationship with surface wind speed in China from 1960 to 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Tianze; Che, Huizheng; Wu, Jian; Wang, Hong; Wang, Yaqiang; Zhang, Xiaoye

    2018-01-01

    This study used daily visibility and surface wind speed observational data over the 50-year period from 1960 to 2009, from 464 national meteorological stations in China, to examine the relationship between these two variables. Specifically, using the statistical methods of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and wavelet analysis, the data were processed into anomaly data to study their spatial and temporal distributions and the characteristics of each pattern's periodicity after EOF analysis of the whole country's visibility and surface wind speed. Correlation analysis and composite analysis were then used to elucidate the relationship between the two variables on different time scales. The results showed a gradual reduction in visibility nationally, with the nine-point moving mean implying decadal variability of the visibility with a downward trend. However, an irregular oscillation was found for the inter-annual variability of visibility. For the anomaly series of visibility during the 50-year period, a long-period oscillation of around 32 years was apparent. Up until the 1990s, there was an approximate 16-year medium-term oscillation period, whereas, after the 1990s, an approximate 8-year oscillation period was generated. In terms of high correlation between the two variables, for the decadal variability, the changes in visibility and surface wind speed at this time scale were almost in agreement. Meanwhile, with respect to the serious pollution in the Yangtze River Delta Economic Zone, the correlation between the two variables was reasonably high, suggesting that surface wind had a significant influence on the scattering of aerosol particles. However, in the Sichuan Basin, the correlation was relatively low, possibly on account of its landscape limiting the variation of wind speed.

  2. Remotely sensed wind speed predicts soaring behaviour in a wide-ranging pelagic seabird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibb, Rory; Shoji, Akiko; Fayet, Annette L; Perrins, Chris M; Guilford, Tim; Freeman, Robin

    2017-07-01

    Global wind patterns affect flight strategies in many birds, including pelagic seabirds, many of which use wind-powered soaring to reduce energy costs during at-sea foraging trips and migration. Such long-distance movement patterns are underpinned by local interactions between wind conditions and flight behaviour, but these fine-scale relationships are far less well understood. Here we show that remotely sensed ocean wind speed and direction are highly significant predictors of soaring behaviour in a migratory pelagic seabird, the Manx shearwater ( Puffinus puffinus ). We used high-frequency GPS tracking data (10 Hz) and statistical behaviour state classification to identify two energetic modes in at-sea flight, corresponding to flap-like and soar-like flight. We show that soaring is significantly more likely to occur in tailwinds and crosswinds above a wind speed threshold of around 8 m s -1 , suggesting that these conditions enable birds to reduce metabolic costs by preferentially soaring over flapping. Our results suggest a behavioural mechanism by which wind conditions may shape foraging and migration ecology in pelagic seabirds, and thus indicate that shifts in wind patterns driven by climate change could impact this and other species. They also emphasize the emerging potential of high-frequency GPS biologgers to provide detailed quantitative insights into fine-scale flight behaviour in free-living animals. © 2017 The Author(s).

  3. Aero-acoustics prediction of a vertical axis wind turbine using Large Eddy Simulation and acoustic analogy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghasemian, Masoud; Nejat, Amir

    2015-01-01

    Operating wind turbines generate tonal and broadband noises affecting the living environment adversely; especially small wind turbines located in the vicinity of human living places. Therefore, it is important to determine the level of noise pollution of such type of wind turbine installation. The current study carries out numerical prediction for aerodynamic noise radiated from an H-Darrieus Vertical Axis Wind Turbine. Incompressible LES (Large Eddy Simulation) is conducted to obtain the instantaneous turbulent flow field. The noise predictions are performed by the Ffowcs Williams and Hawkings (FW–H) acoustic analogy formulation. Simulations are performed for five different tip-speed ratios. First, the mean torque coefficient is compared with the experimental data, and good agreement is observed. Then, the research focuses on the broadband noises of the turbulent boundary layers and the tonal noises due to blade passing frequency. The contribution of the thickness, loading and quadrupole noises are investigated, separately. The results indicate a direct relation between the strength of the radiated noise and the rotational speed. Furthermore, the effect of receiver distance on the OASPL (Overall Sound Pressure Level) is investigated. It is concluded that the OASPL varies with a logarithmic trend with the receiver distance as it was expected. - Highlights: • Large Eddy Simulation has been used to predict the turbulent flow field. • The Ffowcs Williams and Hawkings method was employed to predict radiated noise. • There is a direct relation between the radiated noise and the tip speed ratio. • The quadrupole noises have negligible effect on the tonal noises

  4. Fluctuations and predictability of wind and hydropower. Deliverable 2.1

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giebel, Gregor; Holttinen, H.; Söder, L.

    2004-01-01

    The report forms the deliverable D2.1 of the EU supported project Wind Power Integration in a Liberalised Electricity Market (WILMAR). The handling and generation of the necessary wind and hydro time series for the project’s power system planningsimulation model is described. The wind power...... and the hydro power time series on hourly basis are generated on basis of real data for all the geographical regions included in the analysis in order to realistically represent the various correlations intime and displacement. Models have been developed to generate various realistic future time series based...

  5. Simulation of Time-Varying Spatially Uniform Pressure and Near-Surface Wind Flows on Building Components and Cladding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seraphy Y. Shen

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a new full-scale (FS testing apparatus for conducting performance evaluations of FS building envelope systems. The simulator can generate spatially uniform, time-varying pressure conditions associated with Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category 5 winds while compensating for large air leakage through the specimen and also operate a high-speed wind tunnel, both with dynamic control. This paper presents system details, operating characteristics, and an early case study on the performance of large sectional door systems under wind pressure loading. Failure mechanisms are discussed, and finite element modeling is validated for two specimens. It demonstrates successful dynamic load control for large component and cladding systems, as well as simulation of flows near the building surface. These capabilities serve to complement other FS wind tunnel facilities by offering tools to generate ultimate load conditions on portions of the building. Further, the paper successfully demonstrates the utility of combining physical testing and computational analysis as a matter of routine, which underscores the potential of evolving FS testing to encompass cyber–physical approaches.

  6. Developments in outburst prediction by microseismic monitoring from the surface

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davies, A W; Styles, P; Jones, V K

    1987-01-01

    Violent outbursts of coal and firedamp affect production operations in most of the coal producing countries of the world, often leading to heavy loss of life. Significant changes in the pattern of Welsh outbursts from 1978 onwards are described with a far larger proportion occurring on longwall faces than was previously the case and with a much higher incidence of spontaneous outbursts, which carry a greater risk than those which are deliberately induced. The elaborate defences in use appeared inadequate to deal with the changing circumstances as methane based alarms only operated after the outburst phenomenon had initiated. An earlier warning of an incipient outburst was required and evidence suggested that seismic monitoring might provide this early warning. A surface located seismometer was installed giving radio transmitted signals to a tape recorder in the colliery control room. This provided promising historical records and led to five surface seismometer stations being commissioned feeding signals, suitably treated, to a micro-processor located in the mine control room. The programming of the micro-processor was arranged to give a real time alarm at pre-set levels of seismic activity in defined areas of the mine. Experience with the new predictive tool is described, as well as the use made of the new facility by management, including changed methods of outburst stress relief.

  7. A Diagnostic and Predictive Framework for Wind Turbine Drive Train Monitoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bach-Andersen, Martin

    Vast amount of data are collected minute by minute from wind turbines around the world. This thesis represents a focused research effort into discovering new ways of processing these data streams in order to gain insights which can be used to lower the maintenance costs of wind turbines and increase......, early fault identification based on analysis of complex vibration patterns which is a domain previously reserved for human experts, is shown to be solved with high accuracy using deep learning architecture strained in a fully supervised sense from the data collected in a large scale wind turbine...... monitoring platform. The research shows a way towards a fully automatized data-driven wind turbine diagnostic processing system that is highly scalable and requires little or no feature engineering and system modeling....

  8. Surface to 90 km winds for Kennedy Space Center, Florida, and Vandenberg AFB, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, D. L.; Brown, S. C.

    1979-01-01

    Bivariate normal wind statistics for a 90 degree flight azimuth, from 0 through 90 km altitude, for Kennedy Space Center, Florida, and Vandenberg AFB, California are presented. Wind probability distributions and statistics for any rotation of axes can be computed from the five given parameters.

  9. Prediction of tropical cyclone over North Indian Ocean using WRF model: sensitivity to scatterometer winds, ATOVS and ATMS radiances

    KAUST Repository

    Dodla, Venkata B.

    2016-05-03

    Tropical cyclone prediction, in terms of intensification and movement, is important for disaster management and mitigation. Hitherto, research studies were focused on this issue that lead to improvement in numerical models, initial data with data assimilation, physical parameterizations and application of ensemble prediction. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is the state-of-art model for cyclone prediction. In the present study, prediction of tropical cyclone (Phailin, 2013) that formed in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) with and without data assimilation using WRF model has been made to assess impacts of data assimilation. WRF model was designed to have nested two domains of 15 and 5 km resolutions. In the present study, numerical experiments are made without and with the assimilation of scatterometer winds, and radiances from ATOVS and ATMS. The model performance was assessed in respect to the movement and intensification of cyclone. ATOVS data assimilation experiment had produced the best prediction with least errors less than 100 km up to 60 hours and producing pre-deepening and deepening periods accurately. The Control and SCAT wind assimilation experiments have shown good track but the errors were 150-200 km and gradual deepening from the beginning itself instead of sudden deepening.

  10. Prediction of ice accretion and anti-icing heating power on wind turbine blades using standard commercial software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villalpando, Fernando; Reggio, Marcelo; Ilinca, Adrian

    2016-01-01

    An approach to numerically simulate ice accretion on 2D sections of a wind turbine blade is presented. The method uses standard commercial ANSYS-Fluent and Matlab tools. The Euler-Euler formulation is used to calculate the water impingement on the airfoil, and a UDF (Used Defined Function) has been devised to turn the airfoil's solid wall into a permeable boundary. Mayer's thermodynamic model is implemented in Matlab for computing ice thickness and for updating the airfoil contour. A journal file is executed to systematize the procedure: meshing, droplet trajectory calculation, thermodynamic model application for computing ice accretion, and the updating of airfoil contours. The proposed ice prediction strategy has been validated using iced airfoil contours obtained experimentally in the AMIL refrigerated wind tunnel (Anti-icing Materials International Laboratory). Finally, a numerical prediction method has been generated for anti-icing assessment, and its results compared with data obtained in this laboratory. - Highlights: • A methodology for ice accretion prediction using commercial software is proposed. • Euler model gives better prediction of airfoil water collection with detached flow. • A source term is used to change from a solid wall to a permeable wall in Fluent. • Energy needed for ice-accretion mitigation system is predicted.

  11. Prediction of SYM-H index during large storms by NARX neural network from IMF and solar wind data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Cai

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Similar to the Dst index, the SYM-H index may also serve as an indicator of magnetic storm intensity, but having distinct advantage of higher time-resolution. In this study the NARX neural network has been used for the first time to predict SYM-H index from solar wind (SW and IMF parameters. In total 73 time intervals of great storm events with IMF/SW data available from ACE satellite during 1998 to 2006 are used to establish the ANN model. Out of them, 67 are used to train the network and the other 6 samples for test. Additionally, the NARX prediction model is also validated using IMF/SW data from WIND satellite for 7 great storms during 1995–1997 and 2005, as well as for the July 2000 Bastille day storm and November 2001 superstorm using Geotail and OMNI data at 1 AU, respectively. Five interplanetary parameters of IMF Bz, By and total B components along with proton density and velocity of solar wind are used as the original external inputs of the neural network to predict the SYM-H index about one hour ahead. For the 6 test storms registered by ACE including two super-storms of min. SYM-H<−200 nT, the correlation coefficient between observed and NARX network predicted SYM-H is 0.95 as a whole, even as high as 0.95 and 0.98 with average relative variance of 13.2% and 7.4%, respectively, for the two super-storms. The prediction for the 7 storms with WIND data is also satisfactory, showing averaged correlation coefficient about 0.91 and RMSE of 14.2 nT. The newly developed NARX model shows much better capability than Elman network for SYM-H prediction, which can partly be attributed to a key feedback to the input layer from the output neuron with a suitable length (about 120 min. This feedback means that nearly real information of the ring current status is effectively directed to take part in the prediction of SYM-H index by ANN. The proper history length of the output-feedback may mainly reflect

  12. Prediction of SYM-H index during large storms by NARX neural network from IMF and solar wind data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Cai

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Similar to the Dst index, the SYM-H index may also serve as an indicator of magnetic storm intensity, but having distinct advantage of higher time-resolution. In this study the NARX neural network has been used for the first time to predict SYM-H index from solar wind (SW and IMF parameters. In total 73 time intervals of great storm events with IMF/SW data available from ACE satellite during 1998 to 2006 are used to establish the ANN model. Out of them, 67 are used to train the network and the other 6 samples for test. Additionally, the NARX prediction model is also validated using IMF/SW data from WIND satellite for 7 great storms during 1995–1997 and 2005, as well as for the July 2000 Bastille day storm and November 2001 superstorm using Geotail and OMNI data at 1 AU, respectively. Five interplanetary parameters of IMF Bz, By and total B components along with proton density and velocity of solar wind are used as the original external inputs of the neural network to predict the SYM-H index about one hour ahead. For the 6 test storms registered by ACE including two super-storms of min. SYM-H<−200 nT, the correlation coefficient between observed and NARX network predicted SYM-H is 0.95 as a whole, even as high as 0.95 and 0.98 with average relative variance of 13.2% and 7.4%, respectively, for the two super-storms. The prediction for the 7 storms with WIND data is also satisfactory, showing averaged correlation coefficient about 0.91 and RMSE of 14.2 nT. The newly developed NARX model shows much better capability than Elman network for SYM-H prediction, which can partly be attributed to a key feedback to the input layer from the output neuron with a suitable length (about 120 min. This feedback means that nearly real information of the ring current status is effectively directed to take part in the prediction of SYM-H index by ANN. The proper history length of the output-feedback may mainly reflect on average the characteristic time of ring

  13. THEORETICAL ASPECTS AND NUMERICAL MODELLING FOR LONG TERM PREDICTION OF ABL AND WIND DISTRIBUTION IN POWER FARM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RADULESCU V.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper is structured in seven parts, the last for few conclusions and finally some references. It is based on concrete measurements and observation during around 2 years. First is presented an introduction of the actual situation. In part two are mentioned the methods and hypotheses in evaluation of wind velocity distribution in boundary layers for atmospheric air, taking into account the roughness of ground surfaces. It is mentioned a concrete area, south part of Moldova. In third part is presented a solution for the geodetic model and finally are selected the altimetry solution. In chapter four is determined the influence of air density, temperature and pressure on wind turbine functioning. In the next chapters are presented the numerical model with special boundary conditions, taking into account different value of roughness and finally the obtained results. It is also estimated velocity variation during day-night. Finally is presented the vertical distribution of horizontal wind velocity for a wind farm, obviously important due the power of turbine (around 3 MW each one. Some conclusions and references are also mentioned.

  14. Improvement of a land surface model for accurate prediction of surface energy and water balances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katata, Genki

    2009-02-01

    In order to predict energy and water balances between the biosphere and atmosphere accurately, sophisticated schemes to calculate evaporation and adsorption processes in the soil and cloud (fog) water deposition on vegetation were implemented in the one-dimensional atmosphere-soil-vegetation model including CO 2 exchange process (SOLVEG2). Performance tests in arid areas showed that the above schemes have a significant effect on surface energy and water balances. The framework of the above schemes incorporated in the SOLVEG2 and instruction for running the model are documented. With further modifications of the model to implement the carbon exchanges between the vegetation and soil, deposition processes of materials on the land surface, vegetation stress-growth-dynamics etc., the model is suited to evaluate an effect of environmental loads to ecosystems by atmospheric pollutants and radioactive substances under climate changes such as global warming and drought. (author)

  15. Distinctive Features of Surface Winds over Indian Ocean Between Strong and Weak Indian Summer Monsoons: Implications With Respect To Regional Rainfall Change in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Y.; Bourassa, M. A.; Ali, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    This observational study focuses on characterizing the surface winds in the Arabian Sea (AS), the Bay of Bengal (BoB), and the southern Indian Ocean (SIO) with special reference to the strong and weak Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) using the latest daily gridded rainfall dataset provided by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) gridded wind product version 2.0 produced by Remote Sensing System (RSS) over the overlapped period 1991-2014. The potential links between surface winds and Indian regional rainfall are also examined. Results indicate that the surface wind speeds in AS and BoB during June-August are almost similar during strong ISMRs and weak ISMRs, whereas significant discrepancies are observed during September. By contrast, the surface wind speeds in SIO during June-August are found to be significantly different between strong and weak ISMRs, where they are similar during September. The significant differences in monthly mean surface wind convergence between strong and weak ISMRs are not coherent in space in the three regions. However, the probability density function (PDF) distributions of daily mean area-averaged values are distinctive between strong and weak ISMRs in the three regions. The correlation analysis indicates the area-averaged surface wind speeds in AS and the area-averaged wind convergence in BoB are highly correlated with regional rainfall for both strong and weak ISMRs. The wind convergence in BoB during strong ISMRs is relatively better correlated with regional rainfall than during weak ISMRs. The surface winds in SIO do not greatly affect Indian rainfall in short timescales, however, they will ultimately affect the strength of monsoon circulation by modulating Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode via atmosphere-ocean interactions.

  16. The role of surface topography in predicting scattering at grazing incidence from optical surfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehn, V.; Jones, V.O.; Elson, J.M.; Bennett, J.M.

    1980-01-01

    Monochromator design and the design of optical experiments at XUV and X-ray wavelengths are frequently limited by scattering from optical components, yet theoretical treatments are few and untested experimentally. This is partly due to the failure of scattering models used in the visible and near UV when the wavelength becomes comparable to, or smaller than, the topographic features on the surface, and partly it is due to the difficulty in measuring the topography on the required size scale. We briefly review the theoretical problems and prospects for accurately predicting both the magnitude and angular distribution of scattering at grazing incidence from optical surfaces. Experimental methods for determining and representing the surface topography are also reviewed, together with their limitations and ranges of applicability. Finally, the first results of our experiments, conducted recently at the Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Laboratory on the angular distribution of scattering by surfaces of known topography are presented and discussed, along with their potential implications for the theory of scattering, and for XUV and X-ray optical components. (orig.)

  17. Determining the bounds of skilful forecast range for probabilistic prediction of system-wide wind power generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Cannon

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available State-of-the-art wind power forecasts beyond a few hours ahead rely on global numerical weather prediction models to forecast the future large-scale atmospheric state. Often they provide initial and boundary conditions for nested high resolution simulations. In this paper, both upper and lower bounds on forecast range are identified within which global ensemble forecasts provide skilful information for system-wide wind power applications. An upper bound on forecast range is associated with the limit of predictability, beyond which forecasts have no more skill than predictions based on climatological statistics. A lower bound is defined at the lead time beyond which the resolved uncertainty associated with estimating the future large-scale atmospheric state is larger than the unresolved uncertainty associated with estimating the system-wide wind power response to a given large-scale state.The bounds of skilful ensemble forecast range are quantified for three leading global forecast systems. The power system of Great Britain (GB is used as an example because independent verifying data is available from National Grid. The upper bound defined by forecasts of GB-total wind power generation at a specific point in time is found to be 6–8 days. The lower bound is found to be 1.4–2.4 days. Both bounds depend on the global forecast system and vary seasonally. In addition, forecasts of the probability of an extreme power ramp event were found to possess a shorter limit of predictability (4.5–5.5 days. The upper bound on this forecast range can only be extended by improving the global forecast system (outside the control of most users or by changing the metric used in the probability forecast. Improved downscaling and microscale modelling of the wind farm response may act to decrease the lower bound. The potential gain from such improvements have diminishing returns beyond the short-range (out to around 2 days.

  18. Computational Fluid Dynamics Prediction of a Modified Savonius Wind Turbine with Novel Blade Shapes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenlong Tian

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The Savonius wind turbine is a type of vertical axis wind turbine (VAWTs that is simply composed of two or three arc-type blades which can generate power even under poor wind conditions. A modified Savonius wind turbine with novel blade shapes is introduced with the aim of increasing the power coefficient of the turbine. The effect of blade fullness, which is a main shape parameter of the blade, on the power production of a two-bladed Savonius wind turbine is investigated using transient computational fluid dynamics (CFD. Simulations are based on the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS equations with a renormalization group turbulent model. This numerical method is validated with existing experimental data and then utilized to quantify the performance of design variants. Results quantify the relationship between blade fullness and turbine performance with a blade fullness of 1 resulting in the highest coefficient of power, 0.2573. This power coefficient is 10.98% higher than a conventional Savonius turbine.

  19. Index for Predicting Insurance Claims from Wind Storms with an Application in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mornet, Alexandre; Opitz, Thomas; Luzi, Michel; Loisel, Stéphane

    2015-11-01

    For insurance companies, wind storms represent a main source of volatility, leading to potentially huge aggregated claim amounts. In this article, we compare different constructions of a storm index allowing us to assess the economic impact of storms on an insurance portfolio by exploiting information from historical wind speed data. Contrary to historical insurance portfolio data, meteorological variables show fewer nonstationarities between years and are easily available with long observation records; hence, they represent a valuable source of additional information for insurers if the relation between observations of claims and wind speeds can be revealed. Since standard correlation measures between raw wind speeds and insurance claims are weak, a storm index focusing on high wind speeds can afford better information. A storm index approach has been applied to yearly aggregated claim amounts in Germany with promising results. Using historical meteorological and insurance data, we assess the consistency of the proposed index constructions with respect to various parameters and weights. Moreover, we are able to place the major insurance events since 1998 on a broader horizon beyond 40 years. Our approach provides a meteorological justification for calculating the return periods of extreme-storm-related insurance events whose magnitude has rarely been reached. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. A Simple and Effective Approach for the Prediction of Turbine Power Production From Wind Speed Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marino Marrocu

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available An accurate forecast of the power generated by a wind turbine is of paramount importance for its optimal exploitation. Several forecasting methods have been proposed either based on a physical modeling or using a statistical approach. All of them rely on the availability of high quality measures of local wind speed, corresponding generated power and on numerical weather forecasts. In this paper, a simple and effective wind power forecast technique, based on the probability distribution mapping of wind speed forecast and observed power data, is presented and it is applied to two turbines located on the island of Borkum (Germany in the North Sea. The wind speed forecast of the ECMWF model at 100 m from the ground is used as the prognostic meteorological parameter. Training procedures are based entirely on relatively short time series of power measurements. Results show that our approach has skills that are similar or better than those obtained using more standard methods when measured with mean absolute error.