WorldWideScience

Sample records for surface wind prediction

  1. Deterministic prediction of surface wind speed variations

    OpenAIRE

    Drisya, G. V.; Kiplangat, D. C.; Asokan, K; K. Satheesh Kumar

    2014-01-01

    Accurate prediction of wind speed is an important aspect of various tasks related to wind energy management such as wind turbine predictive control and wind power scheduling. The most typical characteristic of wind speed data is its persistent temporal variations. Most of the techniques reported in the literature for prediction of wind speed and power are based on statistical methods or probabilistic distribution of wind speed data. In this paper we demonstrate that determin...

  2. How predictable are equatorial Atlantic surface winds?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Ingo; Doi, Takeshi; Behera, Swadhin

    2017-04-01

    Sensitivity tests with the SINTEX-F general circulation model (GCM) as well as experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to examine the extent to which sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies contribute to the variability and predictability of monthly mean surface winds in the equatorial Atlantic. In the SINTEX-F experiments, a control experiment with prescribed observed SST for the period 1982-2014 is modified by inserting climatological values in certain regions, thereby eliminating SST anomalies. When SSTs are set to climatology in the tropical Atlantic only (30S to 30N), surface wind variability over the equatorial Atlantic (5S-5N) decreases by about 40% in April-May-June (AMJ). This suggests that about 60% of surface wind variability is due to either internal atmospheric variability or SSTs anomalies outside the tropical Atlantic. A further experiment with climatological SSTs in the equatorial Pacific indicates that another 10% of variability in AMJ may be due to remote influences from that basin. Experiments from the CMIP5 archive, in which climatological SSTs are prescribed globally, tend to confirm the results from SINTEX-F but show a wide spread. In some models, the equatorial Atlantic surface wind variability decreases by more than 90%, while in others it even increases. Overall, the results suggest that about 50-60% of surface wind variance in AMJ is predictable, while the rest is due to internal atmospheric variability. Other months show significantly lower predictability. The relatively strong internal variability as well as the influence of remote SSTs suggest a limited role for coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks in equatorial Atlantic variability.

  3. Deterministic prediction of surface wind speed variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drisya, G. V.; Kiplangat, D. C.; Asokan, K.; Satheesh Kumar, K.

    2014-11-01

    Accurate prediction of wind speed is an important aspect of various tasks related to wind energy management such as wind turbine predictive control and wind power scheduling. The most typical characteristic of wind speed data is its persistent temporal variations. Most of the techniques reported in the literature for prediction of wind speed and power are based on statistical methods or probabilistic distribution of wind speed data. In this paper we demonstrate that deterministic forecasting methods can make accurate short-term predictions of wind speed using past data, at locations where the wind dynamics exhibit chaotic behaviour. The predictions are remarkably accurate up to 1 h with a normalised RMSE (root mean square error) of less than 0.02 and reasonably accurate up to 3 h with an error of less than 0.06. Repeated application of these methods at 234 different geographical locations for predicting wind speeds at 30-day intervals for 3 years reveals that the accuracy of prediction is more or less the same across all locations and time periods. Comparison of the results with f-ARIMA model predictions shows that the deterministic models with suitable parameters are capable of returning improved prediction accuracy and capturing the dynamical variations of the actual time series more faithfully. These methods are simple and computationally efficient and require only records of past data for making short-term wind speed forecasts within practically tolerable margin of errors.

  4. A Statistical Model for the Prediction of Wind-Speed Probabilities in the Atmospheric Surface Layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efthimiou, G. C.; Hertwig, D.; Andronopoulos, S.; Bartzis, J. G.; Coceal, O.

    2016-11-01

    Wind fields in the atmospheric surface layer (ASL) are highly three-dimensional and characterized by strong spatial and temporal variability. For various applications such as wind-comfort assessments and structural design, an understanding of potentially hazardous wind extremes is important. Statistical models are designed to facilitate conclusions about the occurrence probability of wind speeds based on the knowledge of low-order flow statistics. Being particularly interested in the upper tail regions we show that the statistical behaviour of near-surface wind speeds is adequately represented by the Beta distribution. By using the properties of the Beta probability density function in combination with a model for estimating extreme values based on readily available turbulence statistics, it is demonstrated that this novel modelling approach reliably predicts the upper margins of encountered wind speeds. The model's basic parameter is derived from three substantially different calibrating datasets of flow in the ASL originating from boundary-layer wind-tunnel measurements and direct numerical simulation. Evaluating the model based on independent field observations of near-surface wind speeds shows a high level of agreement between the statistically modelled horizontal wind speeds and measurements. The results show that, based on knowledge of only a few simple flow statistics (mean wind speed, wind-speed fluctuations and integral time scales), the occurrence probability of velocity magnitudes at arbitrary flow locations in the ASL can be estimated with a high degree of confidence.

  5. Statistical downscaling of IPCC sea surface wind and wind energy predictions for U.S. east coastal ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Zhigang; Xue, Zuo; He, Ruoying; Bao, Xianwen; Song, Jun

    2016-08-01

    A multivariate statistical downscaling method is developed to produce regional, high-resolution, coastal surface wind fields based on the IPCC global model predictions for the U.S. east coastal ocean, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), and the Caribbean Sea. The statistical relationship is built upon linear regressions between the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) spaces of a cross- calibrated, multi-platform, multi-instrument ocean surface wind velocity dataset (predictand) and the global NCEP wind reanalysis (predictor) over a 10 year period from 2000 to 2009. The statistical relationship is validated before applications and its effectiveness is confirmed by the good agreement between downscaled wind fields based on the NCEP reanalysis and in-situ surface wind measured at 16 National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys in the U.S. east coastal ocean and the GOM during 1992-1999. The predictand-predictor relationship is applied to IPCC GFDL model output (2.0°×2.5°) of downscaled coastal wind at 0.25°×0.25° resolution. The temporal and spatial variability of future predicted wind speeds and wind energy potential over the study region are further quantified. It is shown that wind speed and power would significantly be reduced in the high CO2 climate scenario offshore of the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S., with the speed falling to one quarter of its original value.

  6. Wind power prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  7. Ocean surface wind stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, D. E.

    1984-01-01

    The need for improved surface wind and wind stress data is discussed. The collection of wind data using ship reports, research buoys, and cloud motion vectors is examined. The need for data on surface-wind stress fields is emphasized. Accurate stress data are required for studying: (1) the normal seasonal cycle and the intraannual events; (2) wind stress curls and the forcing of ocean circulation; (3) El Nino events; and (4) the low response of the midlatitude ocean circulation.

  8. Wind Power Prediction Investigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanlong Liu

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Daily and real-time forecast data of wind power is predicted in this study using three methods, which are Kalman filter model, GARCH model and time-series-based BP neural network model. Then, owing to evaluation to the calculation of accuracy and qualification rate, the best method, the time-series-based BP neural network model, was selected for its highest accuracy. Moreover, the prediction error influence due to convergence of wind turbine is on consideration according to the evaluation. Finally, suggestions of improving the prediction accuracy were put forward based on the discussion of accuracy-obstacle factors.

  9. The impact of Surface Wind Velocity Data Assimilation on the Predictability of Plume Advection in the Lower Troposphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekiyama, Thomas; Kajino, Mizuo; Kunii, Masaru

    2017-04-01

    The authors investigated the impact of surface wind velocity data assimilation on the predictability of plume advection in the lower troposphere exploiting the radioactive cesium emitted by the Fukushima nuclear accident in March 2011 as an atmospheric tracer. It was because the radioactive cesium plume was dispersed from the sole point source exactly placed at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant and its surface concentration was measured at many locations with a high frequency and high accuracy. We used a non-hydrostatic regional weather prediction model with a horizontal resolution of 3 km, which was coupled with an ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation system in this study, to simulate the wind velocity and plume advection. The main module of this weather prediction model has been developed and used operationally by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) since before March 2011. The weather observation data assimilated into the model simulation were provided from two data resources; [#1] the JMA observation archives collected for numerical weather predictions (NWPs) and [#2] the land-surface wind velocity data archived by the JMA surface weather observation network. The former dataset [#1] does not contain land-surface wind velocity observations because their spatial representativeness is relatively small and therefore the land-surface wind velocity data assimilation normally deteriorates the more than one day NWP performance. The latter dataset [#2] is usually used for real-time weather monitoring and never used for the data assimilation of more than one day NWPs. We conducted two experiments (STD and TEST) to reproduce the radioactive cesium plume behavior for 48 hours from 12UTC 14 March to 12UTC 16 March 2011 over the land area of western Japan. The STD experiment was performed to replicate the operational NWP using only the #1 dataset, not assimilating land-surface wind observations. In contrast, the TEST experiment was performed assimilating both

  10. Experimental investigation of the surface pressure field for prediction of trailing edge noise of wind turbine aerofoils

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Andreas; Aagaard Madsen, Helge; Bertagnolio, Franck

    2015-01-01

    This paper concerns the characterisation of turbulent boundary layer trailing edge noise by measuring the surface pressure field. Two aerofoils typically used at the outer blade section of modern MW wind turbines were tested in an anechoic wind tunnel for Reynolds numbers ranging from 1 million...... used as input to the model. There was a factor of 2 as difference between the two models. The prediction of the far field trailing edge noise with one model was in excellent agreement with the microphone array measurements in a frequency range of 500-2000 Hz. This opens up the possibility...... to 1.9 million and angles of attack ranging from −10° to 14°. The emitted trailing noise from the aerofoils was measured with a microphone array at a distance of 1.6 m away from the aerofoil. The two-dimensional surface pressure field, which is considered the source of the emitted trailing edge noise...

  11. Application of the nonlinear time series prediction method of genetic algorithm for forecasting surface wind of point station in the South China Sea with scatterometer observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Jian; Dong, Gang; Sun, Yimei; Zhang, Zhaoyang; Wu, Yuqin

    2016-11-01

    The present work reports the development of nonlinear time series prediction method of genetic algorithm (GA) with singular spectrum analysis (SSA) for forecasting the surface wind of a point station in the South China Sea (SCS) with scatterometer observations. Before the nonlinear technique GA is used for forecasting the time series of surface wind, the SSA is applied to reduce the noise. The surface wind speed and surface wind components from scatterometer observations at three locations in the SCS have been used to develop and test the technique. The predictions have been compared with persistence forecasts in terms of root mean square error. The predicted surface wind with GA and SSA made up to four days (longer for some point station) in advance have been found to be significantly superior to those made by persistence model. This method can serve as a cost-effective alternate prediction technique for forecasting surface wind of a point station in the SCS basin. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41230421 and 41605075) and the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2013CB430101).

  12. Predicting Noise From Wind Turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosveld, Ferdinand W.

    1990-01-01

    Computer program WINDY predicts broadband noise spectra of horizontal-axis wind-turbine generators. Enables adequate assessment of impact of broadband wind-turbine noise. Effects of turbulence, trailing-edge wakes, and bluntness taken into account. Program has practical application in design and siting of wind-turbine machines acceptable to community. Written in GW-Basic.

  13. Applications of AMSR-E Measurements for Tropical Cyclone Predictions Part Ⅰ: Retrieval of Sea Surface Temperature and Wind Speed

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Banghua YAN; Fuzhong WENG

    2008-01-01

    Existing satellite microwave algorithms for retrieving Sea Surface Temperature(Sst)and wind(SSW)are applicable primarily for non-raining cloudy conditions.With the launch of the Earth Observing System (EOS)Aqua satellite in 2002,the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer(AMSR-E)onboard provides some unique measurements at lower frequencies which are sensitive to ocean surface parameters under ad-verse weather conditions.In this study,a new algorithm is developed to derive SST and SSW for hurricane predictions such as hurricane vortex analysis from the AMSR-E measurements at 6.925 and 10.65 GHz.In the algorithm,the effects of precipitation emission and scattering on the measurements are properly taken into account.The algorithm performances are evaluated with buoy measurements and aircraft dropsonde data.It is found that the root mean square (RMS) errors for SST and SSW are about 1.8K and 1.9m s(-1),respectively,when the results are compared with the buoy data over open oceans under precipitating clouds (e.g.,its liquid water path is larger than 0.5 mm),while they are 1.1 K for SST and 2.0 ms(-1)for SSW,respectively,when the retrievals are validated against the dropsonde measurements over warm oceans.These results indicate that our newly developed algorithm catl provide some critical surface information for trop-ical cycle predictions.Currently,this newly developed algorithm has been implemented into the hybrid variational scheme for the hurricane vortex analysis to provide predictions of SST and SSW fields.

  14. Wind energy prediction; Prediccion eolica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiberta, B. J.; Florez, M. V. E.

    2004-07-01

    On March 12th, 2004 the Spanish Government modified the legal situation of the renewable energies following the approval of RD 436/2004. This makes necessary the development of wind energy prediction models for its entrance to the daily electricity market like the conventional energies. The improvement of physical models, meteorological models, or a combination of both, is necessary for the prediction of the wind generation. This will guarantee the wind energy full utilization and the participation in the electrical market, as well as the remuneration of the complementary services and the regulation of reactive electricity. In this way wind energy turns into a perfectly manageable one. (Author)

  15. Mapping surface disturbance from wind farms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffendorfer, James E.

    2013-04-01

    Wind energy is one of the fastest growing segments of the electricity market and this trend will likely continue as countries strive to reduce CO2 production while meeting growing energy demands. One impact of wind facilities is surface disturbance, including roads, that lead to habitat loss and fragmentation. Numerous studies of wind power utilize estimates of surface disturbance for GIS-based modeling or basic calculations of the land area required to generate energy using wind. However published estimates of the land use required for a MW of electricity from wind facilities vary by more than 10 times (0.83 to 250 MW/Km2). We report results from a geospatial analysis of 39 wind facilities in the United States that we fully digitized using high resolution photo-imagery. The selected sites and analyses were designed to elucidate the effects of turbine size, topography, and land use on the area requirements of wind facilities. The results indicate point estimates of average surface disturbance/MW have wide levels of variation, explained primarily by Landcover and Topography. Wind facilities in agricultural landscapes had smaller surface disturbance/ha than facilities in forests and shrublands, and facilities in relatively flat topography had smaller surface disturbance/ha than facilities on hills, ridges, or mesas. Land use, topography, and turbine size all influenced turbine spacing. The statistical models suggest we can predict geographic locations where new wind facilities could be placed with minimized surface disturbance.

  16. An atmosphere-wave regional coupled model: improving predictions of wave heights and surface winds in the southern North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahle, Kathrin; Staneva, Joanna; Koch, Wolfgang; Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana; Ho-Hagemann, Ha T. M.; Stanev, Emil V.

    2017-04-01

    The coupling of models is a commonly used approach when addressing the complex interactions between different components of earth systems. We demonstrate that this approach can result in a reduction of errors in wave forecasting, especially in dynamically complicated coastal ocean areas, such as the southern part of the North Sea - the German Bight. Here, we study the effects of coupling of an atmospheric model (COSMO) and a wind wave model (WAM), which is enabled by implementing wave-induced drag in the atmospheric model. The numerical simulations use a regional North Sea coupled wave-atmosphere model as well as a nested-grid high-resolution German Bight wave model. Using one atmospheric and two wind wave models simultaneously allows for study of the individual and combined effects of two-way coupling and grid resolution. This approach proved to be particularly important under severe storm conditions as the German Bight is a very shallow and dynamically complex coastal area exposed to storm floods. The two-way coupling leads to a reduction of both surface wind speeds and simulated wave heights. In this study, the sensitivity of atmospheric parameters, such as wind speed and atmospheric pressure, to the wave-induced drag, in particular under storm conditions, and the impact of two-way coupling on the wave model performance, is quantified. Comparisons between data from in situ and satellite altimeter observations indicate that two-way coupling improves the simulation of wind and wave parameters of the model and justify its implementation for both operational and climate simulations.

  17. OW CCMP ocean surface wind

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) Ocean Surface Wind Vector Analyses (Atlas et al., 2011) provide a consistent, gap-free long-term time-series of ocean...

  18. On the Predictability of Hub Height Winds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Draxl, Caroline

    Wind energy is a major source of power in over 70 countries across the world, and the worldwide share of wind energy in electricity consumption is growing. The introduction of signicant amounts of wind energy into power systems makes accurate wind forecasting a crucial element of modern electrical...... grids. These systems require forecasts with temporal scales of tens of minutes to a few days in advance at wind farm locations. Traditionally these forecasts predict the wind at turbine hub heights; this information is then converted by transmission system operators and energy companies into predictions...... of power output at wind farms. Since the power available in the wind is proportional to the wind speed cubed, even small wind forecast errors result in large power prediction errors. Accurate wind forecasts are worth billions of dollars annually; forecast improvements will result in reduced costs...

  19. Simulation of the surface wind field and wind waves over the Oman Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamzeloo, Sima; Hadi Moeini, Mohammad; Jandaghi Alaee, Majid

    2016-04-01

    Surface wind field is one of the most important factors in the generation of the marine hydrodynamic phenomena such as wind waves that highly affected by the surface winds. Therefore, accessibility to the correct wind field is of great importance for accurate prediction and simulation of the hydrodynamic variables. Nowadays numerical mesoscale weather prediction models are widely applied as powerful tools to simulate wind and other atmospheric variables with predefined temporal and spatial resolution in desired areas. Despite appropriate results of the numerical models in many regions, there are still some complications in the simulation of the surface wind field in areas with complex orography since the surface wind field is highly affected by the local topography, land-sea discontinuity, temperature gradient etc. Nowadays, with the development of high-speed processors the third generation spectral models are generally used for simulation of wind waves. Wind data are the main input parameters of the numerical spectral wave model. Therefore, the quality of the input wind data can be assessed by comparison of the wave model outputs with measured values. The main goal of the current study is to simulate surface wind field over the Oman Sea using WRF modeling system. To verify the model results, the simulated wind speeds were compared with synoptic and buoy measurements and satellite observations. Wind-wave parameters simulated by the spectral model were also compared with wave measurements to verify simulated surface wind field as the input of the wave model. The Comparison simulated wind speed and directions in coastal synoptic stations and QuikSCAT satellite shows sufficient results for both offshore and coastal areas.

  20. Optimal prediction intervals of wind power generation

    OpenAIRE

    Wan, Can; Wu, Zhao; Pinson, Pierre; Dong, Zhao Yang; Wong, Kit Po

    2014-01-01

    Accurate and reliable wind power forecasting is essential to power system operation. Given significant uncertainties involved in wind generation, probabilistic interval forecasting provides a unique solution to estimate and quantify the potential impacts and risks facing system operation with wind penetration beforehand. This paper proposes a novel hybrid intelligent algorithm approach to directly formulate optimal prediction intervals of wind power generation based on extreme learning machin...

  1. Wind farms production: Control and prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Fouly, Tarek Hussein Mostafa

    Wind energy resources, unlike dispatchable central station generation, produce power dependable on external irregular source and that is the incident wind speed which does not always blow when electricity is needed. This results in the variability, unpredictability, and uncertainty of wind resources. Therefore, the integration of wind facilities to utility electrical grid presents a major challenge to power system operator. Such integration has significant impact on the optimum power flow, transmission congestion, power quality issues, system stability, load dispatch, and economic analysis. Due to the irregular nature of wind power production, accurate prediction represents the major challenge to power system operators. Therefore, in this thesis two novel models are proposed for wind speed and wind power prediction. One proposed model is dedicated to short-term prediction (one-hour ahead) and the other involves medium term prediction (one-day ahead). The accuracy of the proposed models is revealed by comparing their results with the corresponding values of a reference prediction model referred to as the persistent model. Utility grid operation is not only impacted by the uncertainty of the future production of wind farms, but also by the variability of their current production and how the active and reactive power exchange with the grid is controlled. To address this particular task, a control technique for wind turbines, driven by doubly-fed induction generators (DFIGs), is developed to regulate the terminal voltage by equally sharing the generated/absorbed reactive power between the rotor-side and the gridside converters. To highlight the impact of the new developed technique in reducing the power loss in the generator set, an economic analysis is carried out. Moreover, a new aggregated model for wind farms is proposed that accounts for the irregularity of the incident wind distribution throughout the farm layout. Specifically, this model includes the wake effect

  2. Will surface winds weaken in response to global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jian; Foltz, Gregory R.; Soden, Brian J.; Huang, Gang; He, Jie; Dong, Changming

    2016-12-01

    The surface Walker and tropical tropospheric circulations have been inferred to slow down from historical observations and model projections, yet analysis of large-scale surface wind predictions is lacking. Satellite measurements of surface wind speed indicate strengthening trends averaged over the global and tropical oceans that are supported by precipitation and evaporation changes. Here we use corrected anemometer-based observations to show that the surface wind speed has not decreased in the averaged tropical oceans, despite its reduction in the region of the Walker circulation. Historical simulations and future projections for climate change also suggest a near-zero wind speed trend averaged in space, regardless of the Walker cell change. In the tropics, the sea surface temperature pattern effect acts against the large-scale circulation slow-down. For higher latitudes, the surface winds shift poleward along with the eddy-driven mid-latitude westerlies, resulting in a very small contribution to the global change in surface wind speed. Despite its importance for surface wind speed change, the influence of the SST pattern change on global-mean rainfall is insignificant since it cannot substantially alter the global energy balance. As a result, the precipitation response to global warming remains ‘muted’ relative to atmospheric moisture increase. Our results therefore show consistency between projections and observations of surface winds and precipitation.

  3. Conditional prediction intervals of wind power generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, Georges

    2010-01-01

    A generic method for the providing of prediction intervals of wind power generation is described. Prediction intervals complement the more common wind power point forecasts, by giving a range of potential outcomes for a given probability, their so-called nominal coverage rate. Ideally they inform...... on the characteristics of prediction errors for providing conditional interval forecasts. By simultaneously generating prediction intervals with various nominal coverage rates, one obtains full predictive distributions of wind generation. Adapted resampling is applied here to the case of an onshore Danish wind farm......, for which three point forecasting methods are considered as input. The probabilistic forecasts generated are evaluated based on their reliability and sharpness, while compared to forecasts based on quantile regression and the climatology benchmark. The operational application of adapted resampling...

  4. Conditional prediction intervals of wind power generation

    OpenAIRE

    Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, Georges

    2010-01-01

    A generic method for the providing of prediction intervals of wind power generation is described. Prediction intervals complement the more common wind power point forecasts, by giving a range of potential outcomes for a given probability, their so-called nominal coverage rate. Ideally they inform of the situation-specific uncertainty of point forecasts. In order to avoid a restrictive assumption on the shape of forecast error distributions, focus is given to an empirical and nonparametric app...

  5. Optimal prediction intervals of wind power generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wan, Can; Wu, Zhao; Pinson, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    Accurate and reliable wind power forecasting is essential to power system operation. Given significant uncertainties involved in wind generation, probabilistic interval forecasting provides a unique solution to estimate and quantify the potential impacts and risks facing system operation with wind...... penetration beforehand. This paper proposes a novel hybrid intelligent algorithm approach to directly formulate optimal prediction intervals of wind power generation based on extreme learning machine and particle swarm optimization. Prediction intervals with Associated confidence levels are generated through...... conducted. Comparing with benchmarks applied, experimental results demonstrate the high efficiency and reliability of the developed approach. It is therefore convinced that the proposed method provides a new generalized framework for probabilistic wind power forecasting with high reliability and flexibility...

  6. Wind Power Prediction using Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giebel, Gregor; Badger, Jake; Landberg, Lars

    2005-01-01

    offshore wind farm and the whole Jutland/Funen area. The utilities used these forecasts for maintenance planning, fuel consumption estimates and over-the-weekend trading on the Leipzig power exchange. Othernotable scientific results include the better accuracy of forecasts made up from a simple...... superposition of two NWP provider (in our case, DMI and DWD), an investigation of the merits of a parameterisation of the turbulent kinetic energy within thedelivered wind speed forecasts, and the finding that a “naïve” downscaling of each of the coarse ECMWF ensemble members with higher resolution HIRLAM did...

  7. Obtaining superior wind power predictions from a periodic and heteroscedastic Wind Power Prediction Tool

    OpenAIRE

    Ambach, Daniel; Croonenbroeck, Carsten

    2014-01-01

    The Wind Power Prediction Tool (WPPT) has successfully been used for accurate wind power forecasts in the short to medium term scenario (up to 12 hours ahead). Since its development about a decade ago, a lot of additional stochastic modeling has been applied to the interdependency of wind power and wind speed. We improve the model in three ways: First, we replace the rather simple Fourier series of the basic model by more general and flexible periodic Basis splines (Bsplines). Second, we mode...

  8. Load prediction of stall regulated wind turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoerck, A.; Dahlberg, J.Aa. [Aeronautical Research Inst. of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden); Carlen, I. [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Div. of Marine Structural Engineering; Ganander, H. [Teknikgruppen AB, Sollentua (Sweden)

    1996-12-01

    Measurements of blade loads on a turbine situated in a small wind farm shows that the highest blade loads occur during operation close to the peak power i.e. when the turbine operates in the stall region. In this study the extensive experimental data base has been utilised to compare loads in selected campaigns with corresponding load predictions. The predictions are based on time domain simulations of the wind turbine structure, performed by the aeroelastic code VIDYN. In the calculations a model were adopted in order to include the effects of dynamic stall. This paper describes the work carried out so far within the project and key results. 5 refs, 10 figs

  9. Surface winds over West Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromwich, David

    1993-01-01

    Five winter months (April-August 1988) of thermal infrared satellite images were examined to investigate the occurrence of dark (warm) signatures across the Ross Ice Shelf in the Antarctic continent. These features are inferred to be generated by katabatic winds that descend from southern Marie Byrd Land and then blow horizontally across the ice shelf. Significant mass is added to this airstream by katabatic winds blowing from the major glaciers that flow through the Transantarctic Mountains from East Antarctica. These negatively buoyant katabatic winds can reach the northwestern edge of the shelf - a horizontal propagation distance of up to 1,000 km - 14 percent of the time. Where the airstream crosses from the ice shelf to the ice-covered Ross Sea, a prominent coastal polynya is formed. Because the downslope buoyancy force is near zero over the Ross Ice Shelf, the northwestward propagation of the katabatic air mass requires pressure gradient support. The study shows that the extended horizontal propagation of this atmospheric density current occurred in conjunction with the passage of synoptic cyclones over the southern Amundsen Sea. These cyclones can strengthen the pressure gradient in the interior of West Antarctica and make the pressure field favorable for northwestward movement of the katabatic winds from West Antarctica across the ice shelf in a geostrophic direction. The glacier winds from East Antarctica are further accelerated by the synoptic pressure gradient, usually undergo abrupt adjustment beyond the exit to the glacier valley, and merge into the mountain-parallel katabatic air mass.

  10. Extreme wave and wind response predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher; Olsen, Anders S.; Mansour, Alaa E.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of the paper is to advocate effective stochastic procedures, based on the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), for extreme value predictions related to wave and wind-induced loads.Due to the efficient optimization procedures implemented in standard FORM...

  11. Predicting annoyance by wind turbine noise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, S.A.; Vos, H.; Eisses, A.R.; Pedersen, E.

    2010-01-01

    While wind turbines have beneficial effects for the environment, they inevitably generate environmental noise. In order to protect residents against unacceptable levels of noise, exposure-response relationships are needed to predict the expected percentage of people annoyed or highly annoyed at a gi

  12. Predicting annoyance by wind turbine noise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, S.A.; Vos, H.; Eisses, A.R.; Pedersen, E.

    2010-01-01

    While wind turbines have beneficial effects for the environment, they inevitably generate environmental noise. In order to protect residents against unacceptable levels of noise, exposure-response relationships are needed to predict the expected percentage of people annoyed or highly annoyed at a

  13. Predictability and Variability of Wave and Wind

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chozas, Julia Fernandez; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Sørensen, Hans Christian

    This project covers two fields of study: a) Wave energy predictability and electricity markets. b) Variability of the power output of WECs in diversified systems : diversified renewable systems with wave and offshore wind production. See page 2-4 in the report for a executive summery....

  14. Modeling wind adjustment factor and midflame wind speed for Rothermel's surface fire spread model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    2012-01-01

    Rothermel's surface fire spread model was developed to use a value for the wind speed that affects surface fire, called midflame wind speed. Models have been developed to adjust 20-ft wind speed to midflame wind speed for sheltered and unsheltered surface fuel. In this report, Wind Adjustment Factor (WAF) model equations are given, and the BehavePlus fire modeling...

  15. Characterizing Tropospheric Winds by Combining MISR Cloud-Track and QuikSCAT Surface Wind Vectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, R.; Garay, M. J.; Moroney, C. M.; Liu, W. T.

    2007-12-01

    Numerous studies have found that the inclusion of wind observations results in a significantly greater improvement in operational weather forecasts compared to the addition of temperature or pressure observations alone. However, global tropospheric wind measurements are only available from 12-hourly rawinsonde launches from selected locations, primarily over land. For years the world's oceans were "data voids" in terms of wind measurements. Only recently have satellites begun to fill this gap. The SeaWinds scatterometer on the QuikSCAT satellite obtains winds referenced to 10 meters above the surface over the global oceans under nearly all weather conditions. The wind speed and direction data from QuikSCAT have been extensively tested against surface observations and are of such quality that these data are routinely assimilated into numerical weather prediction models run by both the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). However, scatterometer data only provide wind information near the ocean surface. This information can be complemented with satellite cloud-track winds that provide information about winds in the free troposphere over the ocean, as well as over land, where scatterometer data are not available. In particular, the height resolved cloud motion vectors from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument on the NASA EOS Terra satellite yield wind speeds for clouds at altitudes less than approximately 2.5 km that are shown to compare favorably with the QuikSCAT winds globally. In addition, the direction of the MISR winds is similar to the QuikSCAT wind vectors when compared on the same basis. The synergistic use of these two sets of wind observations has the potential to make possible a variety of new studies: from improved forecast and climate model validation; to increased understanding of tropospheric water vapor transport; to observations of the coupling

  16. Global analysis of ocean surface wind and wind stress using a general circulation model and Seasat scatterometer winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalnay, E.; Atlas, R.

    1986-01-01

    Instantaneous and 15-day time-averaged fields of surface wind, wind stress, curl of the wind stress, and wind divergence are presented. These fields are derived from the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres four-dimensional analysis/forecast cycle, for the period September 6-30, 1978, using conventional data, satellite temperature soundings, cloud-track winds, and subjectively dealiased Seasat scatterometer winds.

  17. Experiences with Statistical Methods for Wind Power Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik; Tofting, John

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes a tool for predicting the power procution from wind turbines in an area / the Wind Power Prediction Tool (WPPT). The predictions are based on on-line measuremets of power production for a selected set of reference wind farms i the area as well as numerical weather predictions...

  18. Short-term wind power prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joensen, Alfred K.

    2003-01-01

    The present thesis consists of 10 research papers published during the period 1997-2002 together with a summary report. The objective of the work described in the thesis is to develop models and methods for calculation of high accuracy predictions of wind power generated electricity......, and to implement these models and methods in an on-line software application. The economical value of having predictions available is also briefly considered. The summary report outlines the background and motivation for developing wind power prediction models. The meteorological theory which is relevant...... for the thesis is outlined and the background for the models and methods which are proposed in the various papers is described. The software system, Zephyr, which has been developed is also described in the summary report. The main part of the papers have been written in conjunction with two research projects...

  19. Higher-than-predicted saltation threshold wind speeds on Titan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burr, Devon M.; Bridges, Nathan T.; Marshall, John R.; Smith, James K.; White, Bruce R.; Emery, Joshua P.

    2015-01-01

    Titan, the largest satellite of Saturn, exhibits extensive aeolian, that is, wind-formed, dunes, features previously identified exclusively on Earth, Mars and Venus. Wind tunnel data collected under ambient and planetary-analogue conditions inform our models of aeolian processes on the terrestrial planets. However, the accuracy of these widely used formulations in predicting the threshold wind speeds required to move sand by saltation, or by short bounces, has not been tested under conditions relevant for non-terrestrial planets. Here we derive saltation threshold wind speeds under the thick-atmosphere, low-gravity and low-sediment-density conditions on Titan, using a high-pressure wind tunnel refurbished to simulate the appropriate kinematic viscosity for the near-surface atmosphere of Titan. The experimentally derived saltation threshold wind speeds are higher than those predicted by models based on terrestrial-analogue experiments, indicating the limitations of these models for such extreme conditions. The models can be reconciled with the experimental results by inclusion of the extremely low ratio of particle density to fluid density on Titan. Whereas the density ratio term enables accurate modelling of aeolian entrainment in thick atmospheres, such as those inferred for some extrasolar planets, our results also indicate that for environments with high density ratios, such as in jets on icy satellites or in tenuous atmospheres or exospheres, the correction for low-density-ratio conditions is not required.

  20. Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torcasio, Rosa Claudia; Federico, Stefano; Calidonna, Claudia Roberta; Avolio, Elenio; Drofa, Oxana; Landi, Tony Christian; Malguzzi, Piero; Buzzi, Andrea; Bonasoni, Paolo

    2016-03-01

    Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market. Here, a 1-year (1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013) three-model ensemble (TME) experiment for wind prediction is considered. The models employed, run operationally at National Research Council - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model), and MOLOCH (MOdello LOCale in H coordinates). The area considered for the study is southern Italy and the measurements used for the forecast verification are those of the GTS (Global Telecommunication System). Comparison with observations is made every 3 h up to 48 h of forecast lead time. Results show that the three-model ensemble outperforms the forecast of each individual model. The RMSE improvement compared to the best model is between 22 and 30 %, depending on the season. It is also shown that the three-model ensemble outperforms the IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) for the surface wind forecasts. Notably, the three-model ensemble forecast performs better than each unbiased model, showing the added value of the ensemble technique. Finally, the sensitivity of the three-model ensemble RMSE to the length of the training period is analysed.

  1. Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    2016-11-29

    Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

  2. Experiences with Statistical Methods for Wind Power Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik; Tofting, John

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes a tool for predicting the power procution from wind turbines in an area / the Wind Power Prediction Tool (WPPT). The predictions are based on on-line measuremets of power production for a selected set of reference wind farms i the area as well as numerical weather predictions...... covering the locations of the reference wind farms. WPPT is in operational use in the Western part of Denmark and the utililties experiences with the tool is presented....

  3. Application of Artificial Neural Networks for Predicting Generated Wind Power

    OpenAIRE

    Vijendra Singh

    2016-01-01

    This paper addresses design and development of an artificial neural network based system for prediction of wind energy produced by wind turbines. Now in the last decade, renewable energy emerged as an additional alternative source for electrical power generation. We need to assess wind power generation capacity by wind turbines because of its non-exhaustible nature. The power generation by electric wind turbines depends on the speed of wind, flow direction, fluctuations, density of air, gener...

  4. Wind Power Plant Prediction by Using Neural Networks: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Z.; Gao, W.; Wan, Y. H.; Muljadi, E.

    2012-08-01

    This paper introduces a method of short-term wind power prediction for a wind power plant by training neural networks based on historical data of wind speed and wind direction. The model proposed is shown to achieve a high accuracy with respect to the measured data.

  5. WIND STRESS AND SURFACE ROUGHNESS AT AIR-SEA INTERFACE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Based on the compiled data of thirty independent observations, the report presents the wind - stress coefficient, the surface roughness and the...boundary layer flow regime at the air-sea interface under various wind conditions. Both the wind - stress coefficient and the surface roughness are found to...data and Charnock’s proportionality constant is determined. Finally, two approximate formulae for the wind - stress coefficient, one for light wind and the other for strong wind are suggested.

  6. On the onset of surface wind drift at short fetches as observed in a wind wave flume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ocampo-Torres, Francisco J.; Branger, Hubert; Osuna, Pedro; Robles, Lucia

    2014-05-01

    Ocean surface drift is of great relevance to properly model wind waves and specially the early stages of surface waves development and ocean-atmosphere fluxes during incipient wind events and storms. In particular, wave models are not so accurate predicting wave behaviour at short fetches, where wind drift onset might be very important. The onset of surface drift induced by wind and waves is being studied through detailed laboratory measurements in a large wind-wave flume. Wind stress over the water surface, waves and surface drift are measured in the 40m long wind-wave tank at IRPHE, Marseille. While momentum fluxes are estimated directly through the eddy correlation method in a station about the middle of the tank, they provide reference information to the corresponding surface drift onset recorded at rather short non-dimensional fetches. At each experimental run very low wind was on (about 1m/s) for a certain period and suddenly it was constantly accelerated to reach about 13 m/s (as well as 8 and 5 m/s during different runs) in about 15 sec to as long as 600 sec. The wind was kept constant at that high speed for 2 to 10 min, and then suddenly and constantly decelerate to 0. Surface drift values were up to 0.5 cm/s for the highest wind while very distinctive shear was detected in the upper 1.5 cm. Rather linear variation of surface drift was observed with depth. Evolution of the surface drift velocity is analysed and onset behaviour is addressed with particular emphasis in accelerated winds. This work represents a RugDiSMar Project (CONACYT 155793) contribution. The support from ANUIES-ECOS M09-U01 project, CONACYT-187112 Estancia Sabática, and Institute Carnot, is greatly acknowledged.

  7. An overview on SAR measurements of sea surface wind

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Studies show that synthetic aperture radar (SAR) has the capability of providing high-resolution (sub-kilometer) sea surface wind fields. This is very useful for applications where knowledge of the sea surface wind at fine scales is crucial. This paper aims to review the latest work on sea surface wind field retrieval using SAR images. As shown, many different approaches have been developed for retrieving wind speed and wind direction. However, much more work will be required to fully exploit the SAR data for improving the retrieval accuracy of high-resolution winds and for producing wind products in an operational sense.

  8. A model to predict the power output from wind farms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L. [Riso National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

    1997-12-31

    This paper will describe a model that can predict the power output from wind farms. To give examples of input the model is applied to a wind farm in Texas. The predictions are generated from forecasts from the NGM model of NCEP. These predictions are made valid at individual sites (wind farms) by applying a matrix calculated by the sub-models of WASP (Wind Atlas Application and Analysis Program). The actual wind farm production is calculated using the Riso PARK model. Because of the preliminary nature of the results, they will not be given. However, similar results from Europe will be given.

  9. Application of Artificial Neural Networks for Predicting Generated Wind Power

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vijendra Singh

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses design and development of an artificial neural network based system for prediction of wind energy produced by wind turbines. Now in the last decade, renewable energy emerged as an additional alternative source for electrical power generation. We need to assess wind power generation capacity by wind turbines because of its non-exhaustible nature. The power generation by electric wind turbines depends on the speed of wind, flow direction, fluctuations, density of air, generator hours, seasons of an area, and wind turbine position. During a particular season, wind power generation access can be increased. In such a case, wind energy generation prediction is crucial for transmission of generated wind energy to a power grid system. It is advisable for the wind power generation industry to predict wind power capacity to diagnose it. The present paper proposes an effort to apply artificial neural network technique for measurement of the wind energy generation capacity by wind farms in Harshnath, Sikar, Rajasthan, India.

  10. Deterministic nature of the underlying dynamics of surface wind fluctuations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. C. Sreelekshmi

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Modelling the fluctuations of the Earth's surface wind has a significant role in understanding the dynamics of atmosphere besides its impact on various fields ranging from agriculture to structural engineering. Most of the studies on the modelling and prediction of wind speed and power reported in the literature are based on statistical methods or the probabilistic distribution of the wind speed data. In this paper we investigate the suitability of a deterministic model to represent the wind speed fluctuations by employing tools of nonlinear dynamics. We have carried out a detailed nonlinear time series analysis of the daily mean wind speed data measured at Thiruvananthapuram (8.483° N,76.950° E from 2000 to 2010. The results of the analysis strongly suggest that the underlying dynamics is deterministic, low-dimensional and chaotic suggesting the possibility of accurate short-term prediction. As most of the chaotic systems are confined to laboratories, this is another example of a naturally occurring time series showing chaotic behaviour.

  11. Deterministic nature of the underlying dynamics of surface wind fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sreelekshmi, R. C.; Asokan, K.; Satheesh Kumar, K.

    2012-10-01

    Modelling the fluctuations of the Earth's surface wind has a significant role in understanding the dynamics of atmosphere besides its impact on various fields ranging from agriculture to structural engineering. Most of the studies on the modelling and prediction of wind speed and power reported in the literature are based on statistical methods or the probabilistic distribution of the wind speed data. In this paper we investigate the suitability of a deterministic model to represent the wind speed fluctuations by employing tools of nonlinear dynamics. We have carried out a detailed nonlinear time series analysis of the daily mean wind speed data measured at Thiruvananthapuram (8.483° N,76.950° E) from 2000 to 2010. The results of the analysis strongly suggest that the underlying dynamics is deterministic, low-dimensional and chaotic suggesting the possibility of accurate short-term prediction. As most of the chaotic systems are confined to laboratories, this is another example of a naturally occurring time series showing chaotic behaviour.

  12. QuikSCAT and SSM/I ocean surface winds for wind energy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasager, Charlotte Bay; Astrup, Poul; Nielsen, Per

    2007-01-01

    Ocean surface winds observed by satellite scatterometer (QuikSCAT) and passive microwave (SMM/I) provide valuable information for wind energy applications. In wind energy two long-term aspects on the offshore wind climate is of concern. One is the 20-year average necessary for the estimation...

  13. Nonlinear wind prediction using a fuzzy modular temporal neural network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, G.G. [GeoControl Systems, Inc., Houston, TX (United States); Zhijie Dou [West Texas A& M Univ., Canyon, TX (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This paper introduces a new approach utilizing a fuzzy classifier and a modular temporal neural network to predict wind speed and direction for advanced wind turbine control systems. The fuzzy classifier estimates wind patterns and then assigns weights accordingly to each module of the temporal neural network. A temporal network with the finite-duration impulse response and multiple-layer structure is used to represent the underlying dynamics of physical phenomena. Using previous wind measurements and information given by the classifier, the modular network trained by a standard back-propagation algorithm predicts wind speed and direction effectively. Meanwhile, the feedback from the network helps auto-tuning the classifier.

  14. Prediction of wind energy distribution in complex terrain using CFD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Chang; Li, Chenqi; Yang, Jianchuan

    2013-01-01

    Based on linear models, WAsP software predicts wind energy distribution, with a good accuracy for flat terrain, but with a large error under complicated topography. In this paper, numerical simulations are carried out using the FLUENT software on a mesh generated by the GAMBIT and ARGIS software...... to predict wind speed distribution in complex terrain. TECPLOT software post-processing is used to get the whole wind flow field, the wind speed distribution characteristics and distribution of wind energy. The obtained results are compared with the results of WAsP software and are also more accordance...

  15. Prediction models for wind speed at turbine locations in a wind farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Torben; Bak, Thomas; Soltani, Mohsen

    2011-01-01

    on the result related to effective wind speed, it is possible to predict wind speeds at neighboring turbines, with a separation of over 700 m, up to 1 min ahead reducing the error by 30% compared with a persistence method. The methodological results are demonstrated on data from an off-shore wind farm...

  16. Wind Resource Estimation using QuikSCAT Ocean Surface Winds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Qing; Zhang, Guosheng; Cheng, Yongcun

    2011-01-01

    and the complexity of air-sea interaction processes, an empirical relationship that adjusts QuikSCAT winds in coastal waters was first proposed based on vessel measurements. Then the shape and scale parameters of Weibull function are determined for wind resource estimation. The wind roses are also plotted. Results...

  17. Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lars Christian

    the need for maintenance of the wind turbine. Either way, better total-cost-of-ownership for wind turbine operators can be achieved by improved control of the wind turbines. Wind turbine control can be improved in two ways, by improving the model on which the controller bases its design or by improving......Wind turbines play a major role in the transformation from a fossil fuel based energy production to a more sustainable production of energy. Total-cost-of-ownership is an important parameter when investors decide in which energy technology they should place their capital. Modern wind turbines...... are controlled by pitching the blades and by controlling the electro-magnetic torque of the generator, thus slowing the rotation of the blades. Improved control of wind turbines, leading to reduced fatigue loads, can be exploited by using less materials in the construction of the wind turbine or by reducing...

  18. Improvement of short-term numerical wind predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedard, Joel

    Geophysic Model Output Statistics (GMOS) are developed to optimize the use of NWP for complex sites. GMOS differs from other MOS that are widely used by meteorological centers in the following aspects: it takes into account the surrounding geophysical parameters such as surface roughness, terrain height, etc., along with wind direction; it can be directly applied without any training, although training will further improve the results. The GMOS was applied to improve the Environment Canada GEM-LAM 2.5km forecasts at North Cape (PEI, Canada): It improves the predictions RMSE by 25-30% for all time horizons and almost all meteorological conditions; the topographic signature of the forecast error due to insufficient grid refinement is eliminated and the NWP combined with GMOS outperform the persistence from a 2h horizon, instead of 4h without GMOS. Finally, GMOS was applied at another site (Bouctouche, NB, Canada): similar improvements were observed, thus showing its general applicability. Keywords: wind energy, wind power forecast, numerical weather prediction, complex sites, model output statistics

  19. Wind speed prediction using statistical regression and neural network

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Makarand A Kulkarni; Sunil Patil; G V Rama; P N Sen

    2008-08-01

    Prediction of wind speed in the atmospheric boundary layer is important for wind energy assess- ment,satellite launching and aviation,etc.There are a few techniques available for wind speed prediction,which require a minimum number of input parameters.Four different statistical techniques,viz.,curve fitting,Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA),extrapolation with periodic function and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)are employed to predict wind speed.These methods require wind speeds of previous hours as input.It has been found that wind speed can be predicted with a reasonable degree of accuracy using two methods,viz.,extrapolation using periodic curve fitting and ANN and the other two methods are not very useful.

  20. An improved canopy wind model for predicting wind adjustment factors and wildland fire behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. J. Massman; J. M. Forthofer; M. A. Finney

    2017-01-01

    The ability to rapidly estimate wind speed beneath a forest canopy or near the ground surface in any vegetation is critical to practical wildland fire behavior models. The common metric of this wind speed is the "mid-flame" wind speed, UMF. However, the existing approach for estimating UMF has some significant shortcomings. These include the assumptions that...

  1. A new ensemble model for short term wind power prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Razvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan

    2012-01-01

    As the objective of this study, a non-linear ensemble system is used to develop a new model for predicting wind speed in short-term time scale. Short-term wind power prediction becomes an extremely important field of research for the energy sector. Regardless of the recent advancements in the re-search...

  2. Frequency weighted model predictive control of wind turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klauco, Martin; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Mirzaei, Mahmood;

    2013-01-01

    This work is focused on applying frequency weighted model predictive control (FMPC) on three blade horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT). A wind turbine is a very complex, non-linear system influenced by a stochastic wind speed variation. The reduced dynamics considered in this work...... are the rotational degree of freedom of the rotor and the tower for-aft movement. The MPC design is based on a receding horizon policy and a linearised model of the wind turbine. Due to the change of dynamics according to wind speed, several linearisation points must be considered and the control design adjusted...... accordingly. In practice is very hard to measure the effective wind speed, this quantity will be estimated using measurements from the turbine itself. For this purpose stationary predictive Kalman filter has been used. Stochastic simulations of the wind turbine behaviour with applied frequency weighted model...

  3. Study of Practicability of Improved Irwin's Surface Wind Sensor

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Junji KATAGIRI; Toshio TSURUMI; Takeshi OHKUMA; Hisao MARUKAWA

    2009-01-01

      The practicability of a surface wind sensor (SWS) is examined by comparing the mean and fluctuating wind velocities obtained from this instrument with those measured by an omni-directional multi-channel anemometer (OMA...

  4. A methodology for the prediction of offshore wind energy resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, S.J.; Watson, G.M. [Rutherford Appleton Lab., Oxfordshire (United Kingdom); Holt, R.J. [Univ. of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich (United Kingdom)] Barthelmie, R.J. [Risoe National Lab., Dept. of Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics, Roskilde (Denmark); Zuylen, E.J. van [Ecofys Energy and Environment, Utrecht (Netherlands)] Cleijne, J.W. [Kema Sustainable, Arnhem (Netherlands)

    1999-03-01

    There are increasing constraints on the development of wind power on land. Recently, there has been a move to develop wind power offshore, though the amount of measured wind speed data at potential offshore wind farm sites is sparse. We present a novel methodology for the prediction of offshore wind power resources which is being applied to European Union waters. The first stage is to calculate the geostrophic wind from long-term pressure fields over the sea area of interest. Secondly, the geostrophic wind is transformed to the sea level using WA{sup s}P, taking account of near shore topography. Finally, these values are corrected for land/sea climatology (stability) effects using an analytical Coastal discontinuity Model (CDM). These values are further refined using high resolution offshore data at selected sites. The final values are validated against existing offshore datasets. Preliminary results are presented of the geostrophic wind speed validation in European Union waters. (au)

  5. Skill forecasting from ensemble predictions of wind power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Madsen, Henrik

    2009-01-01

    Optimal management and trading of wind generation calls for the providing of uncertainty estimates along with the commonly provided short-term wind power point predictions. Alternative approaches for the use of probabilistic forecasting are introduced. More precisely, focus is given to prediction...... risk indices aiming to give a comprehensive signal on the expected level of forecast uncertainty. Ensemble predictions of wind generation are used as input. A proposal for the definition of prediction risk indices is given. Such skill forecasts are based on the spread of ensemble forecasts (i.e. a set...

  6. Wind Power predictability a risk factor in the design, construction and operation of Wind Generation Turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiesen, J.; Gulstad, L.; Ristic, I.; Maric, T.

    2010-09-01

    Summit: The wind power predictability is often a forgotten decision and planning factor for most major wind parks, both onshore and offshore. The results of the predictability are presented after having examined a number of European offshore and offshore parks power predictability by using three(3) mesoscale model IRIE_GFS and IRIE_EC and WRF. Full description: It is well known that the potential wind production is changing with latitude and complexity in terrain, but how big are the changes in the predictability and the economic impacts on a project? The concept of meteorological predictability has hitherto to some degree been neglected as a risk factor in the design, construction and operation of wind power plants. Wind power plants are generally built in places where the wind resources are high, but these are often also sites where the predictability of the wind and other weather parameters is comparatively low. This presentation addresses the question of whether higher predictability can outweigh lower average wind speeds with regard to the overall economy of a wind power project. Low predictability also tends to reduce the value of the energy produced. If it is difficult to forecast the wind on a site, it will also be difficult to predict the power production. This, in turn, leads to increased balance costs and a less reduced carbon emission from the renewable source. By investigating the output from three(3) mesoscale models IRIE and WRF, using ECMWF and GFS as boundary data over a forecasting period of 3 months for 25 offshore and onshore wind parks in Europe, the predictability are mapped. Three operational mesoscale models with two different boundary data have been chosen in order to eliminate the uncertainty with one mesoscale model. All mesoscale models are running in a 10 km horizontal resolution. The model output are converted into "day a head" wind turbine generation forecasts by using a well proven advanced physical wind power model. The power models

  7. A Bayesian hierarchical model for wind gust prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friederichs, Petra; Oesting, Marco; Schlather, Martin

    2014-05-01

    A postprocessing method for ensemble wind gust forecasts given by a mesoscale limited area numerical weather prediction (NWP) model is presented, which is based on extreme value theory. A process layer for the parameters of a generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) is introduced using a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM). Incorporating the information of the COMSO-DE forecasts, the process parameters model the spatial response surfaces of the GEV parameters as Gaussian random fields. The spatial BHM provides area wide forecasts of wind gusts in terms of a conditional GEV. It models the marginal distribution of the spatial gust process and provides not only forecasts of the conditional GEV at locations without observations, but also uncertainty information about the estimates. A disadvantages of BHM model is that it assumes conditional independent observations. In order to incorporate the dependence between gusts at neighboring locations as well as the spatial random fields of observed and forecasted maximal wind gusts, we propose to model them jointly by a bivariate Brown-Resnick process.

  8. Surface Wind and Upper-Ocean Variability Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation Simulated by the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-01

    Coauthors, 2003: COAMPS version 3 model de- scription. NRL Publ. NRL/PU/7500-03-448, May 2003, 143 pp. ——, T. J. Campbell, H. Jin, S. Gaber sek , R. M. Hodur...and P. Martin, 2010: Effect of two-way air–sea coupling in high and low wind speed regimes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 3579– 3602. ——, ——, S. Gaber sek , H

  9. Short-term prediction of local wind conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Landberg, L.; Watson, S.J.

    1994-01-01

    Using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models it has been shown that they, combined with models (either physical or statistical) taking local effects into account, can be used to predict the wind locally better than the models commonly used today (as eg persistence). By ''local'' is meant at one...... law, and the logarithmic wind profile. The predictions are made up to 36 hours ahead. The model is tested on data from 50 meteorological stations scattered all over Europe....

  10. Wind power prediction based on genetic neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Suhan

    2017-04-01

    The scale of grid connected wind farms keeps increasing. To ensure the stability of power system operation, make a reasonable scheduling scheme and improve the competitiveness of wind farm in the electricity generation market, it's important to accurately forecast the short-term wind power. To reduce the influence of the nonlinear relationship between the disturbance factor and the wind power, the improved prediction model based on genetic algorithm and neural network method is established. To overcome the shortcomings of long training time of BP neural network and easy to fall into local minimum and improve the accuracy of the neural network, genetic algorithm is adopted to optimize the parameters and topology of neural network. The historical data is used as input to predict short-term wind power. The effectiveness and feasibility of the method is verified by the actual data of a certain wind farm as an example.

  11. Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines using Uncertain LIDAR Measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood; Soltani, Mohsen; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2013-01-01

    The problem of Model predictive control (MPC) of wind turbines using uncertain LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) measurements is considered. A nonlinear dynamical model of the wind turbine is obtained. We linearize the obtained nonlinear model for different operating points, which are determined...... by the effective wind speed on the rotor disc. We take the wind speed as a scheduling variable. The wind speed is measurable ahead of the turbine using LIDARs, therefore, the scheduling variable is known for the entire prediction horizon. By taking the advantage of having future values of the scheduling variable...... on wind speed estimation and measurements from the LIDAR is devised to find an estimate of the delay and compensate for it before it is used in the controller. Comparisons between the MPC with error compensation, the MPC without error compensation and an MPC with re-linearization at each sample point...

  12. Effectiveness of WRF wind direction for retrieving coastal sea surface wind from synthetic aperture radar

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Takeyama, Yuko; Ohsawa, Teruo; Kozai, Katsutoshi;

    2013-01-01

    Wind direction is required as input to the geophysical model function (GMF) for the retrieval of sea surface wind speed from a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. The present study verifies the effectiveness of using the wind direction obtained from the weather research and forecasting model...

  13. Offshore Wind Energy: Wind and Sea Surface Temperature from Satellite Observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karagali, Ioanna

    and the Baltic Sea. The aim is to evaluate their potential use and demonstrate their applicability within the context of offshore wind energy; for the quantication of the wind resources and for the identication of diurnal warming of the sea surface temperature. Space-borne observations of wind are obtained from...

  14. On the dependence of sea surface roughness on wind waves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnson, H.K.; Højstrup, J.; Vested, H.J.;

    1998-01-01

    The influence of wind waves on the momentum transfer (wind stress) between the atmosphere and sea surface was studied using new measured data from the RASEX experiment and other datasets compiled by Donelan et al. Results of the data analysis indicate that errors in wind friction velocity u...

  15. Ice Accretion Prediction on Wind Turbines and Consequent Power Losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yirtici, Ozcan; Tuncer, Ismail H.; Ozgen, Serkan

    2016-09-01

    Ice accretion on wind turbine blades modifies the sectional profiles and causes alteration in the aerodynamic characteristic of the blades. The objective of this study is to determine performance losses on wind turbines due to the formation of ice in cold climate regions and mountainous areas where wind energy resources are found. In this study, the Blade Element Momentum method is employed together with an ice accretion prediction tool in order to estimate the ice build-up on wind turbine blades and the energy production for iced and clean blades. The predicted ice shapes of the various airfoil profiles are validated with the experimental data and it is shown that the tool developed is promising to be used in the prediction of power production losses of wind turbines.

  16. Accuracy of Wind Prediction Methods in the California Sea Breeze

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumers, B. D.; Dvorak, M. J.; Ten Hoeve, J. E.; Jacobson, M. Z.

    2010-12-01

    In this study, we investigate the accuracy of measure-correlate-predict (MCP) algorithms and log law/power law scaling using data from two tall towers in coastal environments. We find that MCP algorithms accurately predict sea breeze winds and that log law/power law scaling methods struggle to predict 50-meter wind speeds. MCP methods have received significant attention as the wind industry has grown and the ability to accurately characterize the wind resource has become valuable. These methods are used to produce longer-term wind speed records from short-term measurement campaigns. A correlation is developed between the “target site,” where the developer is interested in building wind turbines, and a “reference site,” where long-term wind data is available. Up to twenty years of prior wind speeds are then are predicted. In this study, two existing MCP methods - linear regression and Mortimer’s method - are applied to predict 50-meter wind speeds at sites in the Salinas Valley and Redwood City, CA. The predictions are then verified with tall tower data. It is found that linear regression is poorly suited to MCP applications as the process produces inaccurate estimates of the cube of the wind speed at 50 meters. Meanwhile, Mortimer’s method, which bins data by direction and speed, is found to accurately predict the cube of the wind speed in both sea breeze and non-sea breeze conditions. We also find that log and power law are unstable predictors of wind speeds. While these methods produced accurate estimates of the average 50-meter wind speed at both sites, they predicted an average cube of the wind speed that was between 1.3 and 1.18 times the observed value. Inspection of time-series error reveals increased error in the mid-afternoon of the summer. This suggests that the cold sea breeze may disrupt the vertical temperature profile, create a stable atmosphere and violate the assumptions that allow log law scaling to work.

  17. Extreme load predictions for floating offshore wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2009-01-01

    An effective stochastic procedure for extreme value predictions related to wave and wind induced stochastic loads is applied to a tension-leg concept for floating offshore wind turbines. The method is based on the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and as the procedure makes use of only short...

  18. Selection of References in Wind Turbine Model Predictive Control Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Hovgaard, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Lowering the cost of energy is one of the major focus areas in the wind turbine industry. Recent research has indicated that wind turbine controllers based on model predictive control methods can be useful in obtaining this objective. A number of design considerations have to be made when designi...

  19. Physical approach to short-term wind power prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Lange, Matthias

    2006-01-01

    Offers an approach to the ultimate goal of the short-term prediction of the power output of winds farms. This book addresses scientists and engineers working in wind energy related R and D and industry, as well as graduate students and nonspecialists researchers in the fields of atmospheric physics and meteorology.

  20. Wind Predictability and Remote Sensing Techniques,

    Science.gov (United States)

    The report presents the unclassified findings from the Investigation of Airborne Wind Sensing Systems conducted under AIRTASK A30303/323/70F17311002. Included is a summary of the current accuracy of wind speed and direction forecasts, a list of possible methods for remote sensing meteorological data, a list of areas of application of the given methods and a list of contacts made for information relevant to this evaluation. (Author)

  1. Soil erosion rates from mixed soil and gravel surfaces in a wind tunnel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ligotke, M.W.; Klopfer, D.C.

    1990-08-01

    Protective barriers have been identified as integral components of plans to isolate defense waste on the Hanford Site. The use of natural materials to construct protective barriers over waste site is being considered. Design requirements for protective barriers include preventing exposure of buried waste, and restricting penetration or percolation of surface waters through the waste zone. Studies were initiated to evaluate the effects of wind erosion on candidate protective barrier surfaces. A wind tunnel was used to provide controlled erosive stresses and to investigate the erosive effects of wind forces on proposed surface layers for protective barriers. Mixed soil and gravel surfaces were prepared and tested for resistance to wind erosion at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory Aerosol Wind Tunnel Research Facility. These tests were performed to investigate surface deflation caused by suspension of soil from various surface layer configurations and to provide a comparison of the relative resistance of the different surfaces to wind erosion. Planning, testing, and analyzing phases of this wind erosion project were coordinated with other tasks supporting the development of protective barriers. These tasks include climate-change predictions, field studies and modeling efforts. This report provides results of measurements of deflation caused by wind forces over level surfaces. Section 2.0 reviews surface layer characteristics and previous relevant studies on wind erosion, describes effects of erosion, and discusses wind tunnel modeling. Materials and methods of the wind tunnel tests are discussed in Section 3.0. Results and discussion are presented in Section 4.0, and conclusions and recommendations Section 5.0. 53 refs., 29 figs., 7 tabs.

  2. VT Predicted Mean Wind Power - 50 meter height

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) Wind power predictions at 50m are generated by a numerical model that simulates weather conditions over a 15-year period, taking into account...

  3. VT Predicted Mean Wind Speed - 30 meter height

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) Wind speed predictions at 30m are generated by a numerical model that simulates weather conditions over a 15-year period, taking into account...

  4. VT Predicted Mean Wind Speed - 70 meter height

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) Wind speed predictions at 70m are generated by a numerical model that simulates weather conditions over a 15-year period, taking into account...

  5. Calculating the sensitivity of wind turbine loads to wind inputs using response surfaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rinker, Jennifer M.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology to calculate wind turbine load sensitivities to turbulence parameters through the use of response surfaces. A response surface is a high-dimensional polynomial surface that can be calibrated to any set of input/output data and then used to generate synthetic data...... parameters examined in this paper, the variance caused by the Kaimal length scale and nonstationarity parameter are negligible. Thus, the findings in this paper represent the first systematic evidence that stochastic wind turbine load response statistics can be modeled purely by mean wind wind speed...

  6. Uncertainty analysis of wind-wave predictions in Lake Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekouee, Navid; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad; Hamidi, Sajad Ahmad

    2016-10-01

    With all the improvement in wave and hydrodynamics numerical models, the question rises in our mind that how the accuracy of the forcing functions and their input can affect the results. In this paper, a commonly used numerical third-generation wave model, SWAN is applied to predict waves in Lake Michigan. Wind data are analyzed to determine wind variation frequency over Lake Michigan. Wave predictions uncertainty due to wind local effects are compared during a period where wind has a fairly constant speed and direction over the northern and southern basins. The study shows that despite model calibration in Lake Michigan area, the model deficiency arises from ignoring wind effects in small scales. Wave prediction also emphasizes that small scale turbulence in meteorological forces can increase prediction errors by 38%. Wave frequency and coherence analysis show that both models can predict the wave variation time scale with the same accuracy. Insufficient number of meteorological stations can result in neglecting local wind effects and discrepancies in current predictions. The uncertainty of wave numerical models due to input uncertainties and model principals should be taken into account for design risk factors.

  7. Using machine learning to predict wind turbine power output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifton, A.; Kilcher, L.; Lundquist, J. K.; Fleming, P.

    2013-06-01

    Wind turbine power output is known to be a strong function of wind speed, but is also affected by turbulence and shear. In this work, new aerostructural simulations of a generic 1.5 MW turbine are used to rank atmospheric influences on power output. Most significant is the hub height wind speed, followed by hub height turbulence intensity and then wind speed shear across the rotor disk. These simulation data are used to train regression trees that predict the turbine response for any combination of wind speed, turbulence intensity, and wind shear that might be expected at a turbine site. For a randomly selected atmospheric condition, the accuracy of the regression tree power predictions is three times higher than that from the traditional power curve methodology. The regression tree method can also be applied to turbine test data and used to predict turbine performance at a new site. No new data are required in comparison to the data that are usually collected for a wind resource assessment. Implementing the method requires turbine manufacturers to create a turbine regression tree model from test site data. Such an approach could significantly reduce bias in power predictions that arise because of the different turbulence and shear at the new site, compared to the test site.

  8. Offshore Wind Energy: Wind and Sea Surface Temperature from Satellite Observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karagali, Ioanna

    as the entire atmosphere above. Under conditions of light winds and strong solar insolation, warming of the upper oceanic layer may occur. In this PhD study, remote sensing from satellites is used to obtain information for the near-surface ocean wind and the sea surface temperature over the North Sea...

  9. Empirical models for predicting wind potential for wind energy applications in rural locations of Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. C. Odo, G. U. Akubue, S. U. Offiah, P. E. Ugwuoke

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we use the correlation between the average wind speed and ambient temperature to develop models for predicting wind potentials for two Nigerian locations. Assuming that the troposphere is a typical heterogeneous mixture of ideal gases, we find that for the studied locations, wind speed clearly correlates with ambient temperature in a simple polynomial of 3rd degree. The coefficient of determination and root-mean-square error of the models are 0.81; 0.0024 and 0.56; 0.0041, respectively, for Enugu (6.40N; 7.50E and Owerri (5.50N; 7.00E. These results suggest that the temperature-based model can be used, with acceptable accuracy, in predicting wind potentials needed for preliminary design assessment of wind energy conversion devices for the locations and others with similar meteorological conditions.

  10. Empirical models for predicting wind potential for wind energy applications in rural locations of Nigeria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Odo, F.C. [National Centre for Energy Research and Development, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria); Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria); Akubue, G.U.; Offiah, S.U.; Ugwuoke, P.E. [National Centre for Energy Research and Development, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria)

    2013-07-01

    In this paper, we use the correlation between the average wind speed and ambient temperature to develop models for predicting wind potentials for two Nigerian locations. Assuming that the troposphere is a typical heterogeneous mixture of ideal gases, we find that for the studied locations, wind speed clearly correlates with ambient temperature in a simple polynomial of 3rd degree. The coefficient of determination and root-mean-square error of the models are 0.81; 0.0024 and 0.56; 0.0041, respectively, for Enugu (6.40N; 7.50E) and Owerri (5.50N; 7.00E). These results suggest that the temperature-based model can be used, with acceptable accuracy, in predicting wind potentials needed for preliminary design assessment of wind energy conversion devices for the locations and others with similar meteorological conditions.

  11. Influence of Persistent Wind Scour on the Surface Mass Balance of Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Indrani; Bell, Robin E.; Scambos, Ted A.; Wolovick, Michael; Creyts, Timothy T.; Studinger, Michael; Fearson, Nicholas; Nicolas, Julien P.; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; vandenBroeke, Michiel R.

    2013-01-01

    Accurate quantification of surface snow accumulation over Antarctica is a key constraint for estimates of the Antarctic mass balance, as well as climatic interpretations of ice-core records. Over Antarctica, near-surface winds accelerate down relatively steep surface slopes, eroding and sublimating the snow. This wind scour results in numerous localized regions (Antarctica. The scour zones are persistent because they are controlled by bedrock topography. On the basis of our Dome A observations, we develop an empirical model to predict wind-scour zones across the Antarctic continent and find that these zones are predominantly located in East Antarctica. We estimate that approx. 2.7-6.6% of the surface area of Antarctica has persistent negative net accumulation due to wind scour, which suggests that, across the continent, the snow mass input is overestimated by 11-36.5 Gt /yr in present surface-mass-balance calculations.

  12. Hourly Wind Speed Interval Prediction in Arid Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaouch, M.; Ouarda, T.

    2013-12-01

    context, probabilistic forecasts might be more relevant than point forecasts for the planner to build scenarios In this paper, we are interested in estimating predictive intervals of the hourly wind speed measures in few cities in United Arab emirates (UAE). More precisely, given a wind speed time series, our target is to forecast the wind speed at any specific hour during the day and provide in addition an interval with the coverage probability 0forecast wind speed.

  13. Altimeter Estimation of Sea Surface Wind Stress for Light to Moderate Winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandemark, Douglas; Edson, James B.; Chapron, Bertrand

    1997-01-01

    Aircraft altimeter and in situ measurements are used to examine relationships between altimeter backscatter and the magnitude of near-surface wind and friction velocities. Comparison of altimeter radar cross section with wind speed is made through the modified Chelton-Wentz algorithm. Improved agreement is found after correcting 10-m winds for both surface current and atmospheric stability. An altimeter friction velocity algorithm is derived based on the wind speed model and an open-ocean drag coefficient. Close agreement between altimeter- and in situ-derived friction velocities is found. For this dataset, quality of the altimeter inversion to surface friction velocity is comparable to that for adjusted winds and clearly better than the inversion to true 10-m wind speed.

  14. Model predictive control for wind power gradients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hovgaard, Tobias Gybel; Boyd, Stephen; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2015-01-01

    ranges. The system dynamics are quite non-linear, and the constraints and objectives are not convex functions of the control inputs, so the resulting optimal control problem is difficult to solve globally. In this paper, we show that by a novel change of variables, which focuses on power flows, we can......We consider the operation of a wind turbine and a connected local battery or other electrical storage device, taking into account varying wind speed, with the goal of maximizing the total energy generated while respecting limits on the time derivative (gradient) of power delivered to the grid. We...... transform the problem to one with linear dynamics and convex constraints. Thus, the problem can be globally solved, using robust, fast solvers tailored for embedded control applications. We implement the optimal control problem in a receding horizon manner and provide extensive closed-loop tests with real...

  15. A Wind Power and Load Prediction Based Frequency Control Approach for Wind-Diesel-Battery Hybrid Power System

    OpenAIRE

    Chao Peng; Zhenzhen Zhang; Jia Wu

    2015-01-01

    A frequency control approach based on wind power and load power prediction information is proposed for wind-diesel-battery hybrid power system (WDBHPS). To maintain the frequency stability by wind power and diesel generation as much as possible, a fuzzy control theory based wind and diesel power control module is designed according to wind power and load prediction information. To compensate frequency fluctuation in real time and enhance system disturbance rejection ability, a battery energy ...

  16. Predicting Faults in Wind Turbines Using SCADA Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borchersen, Anders Bech; Larsen, Jesper Abildgaard; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2013-01-01

    The cost of operation and maintenance of wind turbines is a significant part of the overall cost of wind turbines. To reduce this cost a method for enabling early fault detection is proposed and tested in this paper. The method is taking advantage of the fact that wind turbines in wind farms...... and tested on historical Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) data from nine operational turbines over a testing period of nine months. The performance of the fault detection is found to be acceptable based on the testing period. During the testing period several gear related services were...... performed, some of these were predicted by the proposed fault detection systems. The advantage of the purposed method is that it applicable for operational turbines without requiring any extra measurements, since the used SCADA data is available from most modern wind turbines....

  17. Wind flow and wind loads on the surface of a tower- shaped building: Numerical simulations and wind tunnel experiment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Flow structure and wind pressure distribution caused by obtuse obstacles are usually the focuses in Computational Wind Engineer researches (CWE). By solving the non- hydrostatical dynamic equations, PUMA model (Peking University Model of Atmospheric Environment) was developed and applied to simulating the flow structure and wind pressure distribution around a tower-shaped building. Evaluation about the wind environment and wind loads around the building was obtained through the analysis of the numerical simulation results and wind tunnel data. Comparisons between the simulation and wind tunnel study indicate that numerical simulation results agree well in the flow field and wind pressure distribution around the tower-shaped building. On the other hand, the horizontal grid interval of 2 m and the vertical grid of 3 m were still too crude to simulate the flow structure and wind pressure distribution on the building surface more exactly in detail; and the absence of suitable pressure perturbation parameterization scheme between the solid and the adjacent space also limits the accuracy of the numerical simulation. The numerical simulation model can be used to evaluate the wind environment and wind load around high buildings.

  18. 7 CFR 610.13 - Equations for predicting soil loss due to wind erosion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Equations for predicting soil loss due to wind erosion... Erosion Prediction Equations § 610.13 Equations for predicting soil loss due to wind erosion. (a) The equation for predicting soil loss due to wind in the Wind Erosion Equation (WEQ) is E = f(IKCLV). (For...

  19. Probabilistic maximum-value wind prediction for offshore environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Staid, Andrea; Pinson, Pierre; Guikema, Seth D.

    2015-01-01

    , and probabilistic forecasts result in greater value to the end-user. The models outperform traditional baseline forecast methods and achieve low predictive errors on the order of 1–2 m s−1. We show the results of their predictive accuracy for different lead times and different training methodologies....... statistical models to predict the full distribution of the maximum-value wind speeds in a 3 h interval. We take a detailed look at the performance of linear models, generalized additive models and multivariate adaptive regression splines models using meteorological covariates such as gust speed, wind speed......, convective available potential energy, Charnock, mean sea-level pressure and temperature, as given by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts forecasts. The models are trained to predict the mean value of maximum wind speed, and the residuals from training the models are used to develop...

  20. Impacts of wind farms on surface air temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baidya Roy, Somnath; Traiteur, Justin J.

    2010-01-01

    Utility-scale large wind farms are rapidly growing in size and numbers all over the world. Data from a meteorological field campaign show that such wind farms can significantly affect near-surface air temperatures. These effects result from enhanced vertical mixing due to turbulence generated by wind turbine rotors. The impacts of wind farms on local weather can be minimized by changing rotor design or by siting wind farms in regions with high natural turbulence. Using a 25-y-long climate dataset, we identified such regions in the world. Many of these regions, such as the Midwest and Great Plains in the United States, are also rich in wind resources, making them ideal candidates for low-impact wind farms. PMID:20921371

  1. Complex Wind-Induced Variations of Surface Snow Accumulation Rates over East Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, I.; Scambos, T. A.; Koenig, L.; van den Broeke, M.; Lenaerts, J.

    2015-12-01

    Accurate quantification of surface snow-accumulation over Antarctica is important for mass balance estimates and climate studies based on ice core records. Using airborne radar, lidar and thresholds of surface slope, modeled surface mass balance (SMB) and wind fields, we have predicted continent-wide distribution of wind-scour zones over Antarctica. These zones are located over relatively steep ice surfaces formed by ice flow over bedrock topography. Near-surface winds accelerate over these steeper slopes and erode and sublimate the snow. This results in numerous localized regions (typically ≤ 200 km2) with reduced or negative surface accumulation. Although small zones of re-deposition occur at the base of the steeper slope areas, the redeposited mass is small relative to the ablation loss. Total losses from wind-scour and wind-glaze areas amounts to tens of gigatons annually. Near the coast, winds often blow significant amounts of surface snow from these zones into the ocean. Large uncertainties remain in SMB estimates over East Antarctica as climate models do not adequately represent the small-scale physical processes that lead to mass loss or redistribution over the wind-scour zones. In this study, we also use Operation IceBridge's snow radar data to provide evidence for a gradual ablation of ~16-18 m of firn (~200 years of accumulation) from wind-scour zones over the upper Recovery Ice Stream catchment. The maximum ablation rates observed in this region are ~ -54 kg m-2 a-1 (-54 mm water equivalent a-1). Our airborne radio echo-sounding analysis show snow redeposition downslope of the wind-scour zones is <10% of the cumulative mass loss. Our study shows that the local mass loss is dominated by sublimation to water vapor rather than wind-transport of snow.

  2. Robust Model Predictive Control of a Wind Turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Niemann, Hans Henrik

    2012-01-01

    In this work the problem of robust model predictive control (robust MPC) of a wind turbine in the full load region is considered. A minimax robust MPC approach is used to tackle the problem. Nonlinear dynamics of the wind turbine are derived by combining blade element momentum (BEM) theory...... and first principle modeling of the turbine flexible structure. Thereafter the nonlinear model is linearized using Taylor series expansion around system operating points. Operating points are determined by effective wind speed and an extended Kalman filter (EKF) is employed to estimate this. In addition...... of the uncertain system is employed and a norm-bounded uncertainty model is used to formulate a minimax model predictive control. The resulting optimization problem is simplified by semidefinite relaxation and the controller obtained is applied on a full complexity, high fidelity wind turbine model. Finally...

  3. Comparing wind directions inferred from Martian dust devil tracks analysis with those predicted by the Mars Climate Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Statella, T.; Pina, P.; Silva, E. A.; Nervis Frigeri, Ary Vinicius; Neto, Frederico Gallon

    2016-10-01

    We have calculated the prevailing dust devil tracks direction as a means of verifying the Mars Climate Database (MCD) predicted wind directions accuracy. For that purpose we have applied an automatic method based on morphological openings for inferring the prevailing tracks direction in a dataset comprising 200 Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) Narrow Angle (NA) and High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) images of the Martian surface, depicting regions in the Aeolis, Eridania, Noachis, Argyre and Hellas quadrangles. The prevailing local wind directions were calculated from the MCD predicted speeds for the WE and SN wind components. The results showed that the MCD may not be able to predict accurately the locally dominant wind direction near the surface. In adittion, we confirm that the surface wind stress alone cannot produce dust lifting in the studied sites, since it never exceeds the threshold value of 0.0225 Nm-2 in the MCD.

  4. Prediction of broadband noise from large horizontal axis wind turbine generators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosveld, F. W.

    1984-01-01

    A method is presented for predicting the broadband noise spectra of large horizontal axis wind turbine generators. It includes contributions from such noise sources as the inflow turbulence to the rotor, the interactions between the turbulent boundary layers on the blade surfaces with their trailing edges and the wake due to a blunt trailing edge. The method is partly empirical and is based on acoustic measurements of large wind turbines and airfoil models. The predicted frequency spectra are compared with measured data from several machines including the MOD-OA, the MOD-2, the WTS-4 and the U.S. Wind-power Inc. machine. Also included is a broadband noise prediction for the proposed MOD-5B. The significance of the effects of machine size, power output, trailing edge bluntness and distance to the receiver is illustrated. Good agreement is obtained between the predicted and measured far field noise spectra.

  5. Data-driven RANS for prediction of wind turbine wakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iungo, Giacomo Valerio; Viola, Francesco; Ciri, Umberto; Camarri, Simone; Rotea, Mario A.; Leonardi, Stefano

    2015-11-01

    Wind turbine wakes are highly turbulent flows resulting from the interaction between the atmospheric boundary layer and wake vorticity structures. Measurement technologies, such as wind LiDARs, are currently available to perform velocity measurements in a set of locations of wakes past utility-scale wind turbines; however, computational methods are still needed to predict wake downstream evolution. In this work, a low-computational cost and accurate algorithm is proposed for prediction of the spatial evolution of wind turbine wakes. Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes equations (RANS) are formulated in cylindrical coordinates and simplified by using a boundary layer type approximation. Turbulence effects are taken into account with a mixing length model calibrated on the available observations. In this study, observations of wind turbine wakes consist in LES data of wakes produced by a wind turbine operating with different incoming wind and loading conditions. The mixing length calibrated on the LES data is constant in the near wake and only affected by the incoming turbulence, whereas further downstream it increases roughly linearly with the downstream position and with increased slope for increasing rotational speed of the turbine.

  6. Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joensen, A.; Giebel, G.; Landberg, L. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H.; Nielsen, H.A. [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.

  7. Wind Prediction Accuracy for Air Traffic Management Decision Support Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Rod; Green, Steve; Jardin, Matt; Schwartz, Barry; Benjamin, Stan

    2000-01-01

    The performance of Air Traffic Management and flight deck decision support tools depends in large part on the accuracy of the supporting 4D trajectory predictions. This is particularly relevant to conflict prediction and active advisories for the resolution of conflicts and the conformance with of traffic-flow management flow-rate constraints (e.g., arrival metering / required time of arrival). Flight test results have indicated that wind prediction errors may represent the largest source of trajectory prediction error. The tests also discovered relatively large errors (e.g., greater than 20 knots), existing in pockets of space and time critical to ATM DST performance (one or more sectors, greater than 20 minutes), are inadequately represented by the classic RMS aggregate prediction-accuracy studies of the past. To facilitate the identification and reduction of DST-critical wind-prediction errors, NASA has lead a collaborative research and development activity with MIT Lincoln Laboratories and the Forecast Systems Lab of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This activity, begun in 1996, has focussed on the development of key metrics for ATM DST performance, assessment of wind-prediction skill for state of the art systems, and development/validation of system enhancements to improve skill. A 13 month study was conducted for the Denver Center airspace in 1997. Two complementary wind-prediction systems were analyzed and compared to the forecast performance of the then standard 60 km Rapid Update Cycle - version 1 (RUC-1). One system, developed by NOAA, was the prototype 40-km RUC-2 that became operational at NCEP in 1999. RUC-2 introduced a faster cycle (1 hr vs. 3 hr) and improved mesoscale physics. The second system, Augmented Winds (AW), is a prototype en route wind application developed by MITLL based on the Integrated Terminal Wind System (ITWS). AW is run at a local facility (Center) level, and updates RUC predictions based on an

  8. Wind Prediction Accuracy for Air Traffic Management Decision Support Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Rod; Green, Steve; Jardin, Matt; Schwartz, Barry; Benjamin, Stan

    2000-01-01

    The performance of Air Traffic Management and flight deck decision support tools depends in large part on the accuracy of the supporting 4D trajectory predictions. This is particularly relevant to conflict prediction and active advisories for the resolution of conflicts and the conformance with of traffic-flow management flow-rate constraints (e.g., arrival metering / required time of arrival). Flight test results have indicated that wind prediction errors may represent the largest source of trajectory prediction error. The tests also discovered relatively large errors (e.g., greater than 20 knots), existing in pockets of space and time critical to ATM DST performance (one or more sectors, greater than 20 minutes), are inadequately represented by the classic RMS aggregate prediction-accuracy studies of the past. To facilitate the identification and reduction of DST-critical wind-prediction errors, NASA has lead a collaborative research and development activity with MIT Lincoln Laboratories and the Forecast Systems Lab of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This activity, begun in 1996, has focussed on the development of key metrics for ATM DST performance, assessment of wind-prediction skill for state of the art systems, and development/validation of system enhancements to improve skill. A 13 month study was conducted for the Denver Center airspace in 1997. Two complementary wind-prediction systems were analyzed and compared to the forecast performance of the then standard 60 km Rapid Update Cycle - version 1 (RUC-1). One system, developed by NOAA, was the prototype 40-km RUC-2 that became operational at NCEP in 1999. RUC-2 introduced a faster cycle (1 hr vs. 3 hr) and improved mesoscale physics. The second system, Augmented Winds (AW), is a prototype en route wind application developed by MITLL based on the Integrated Terminal Wind System (ITWS). AW is run at a local facility (Center) level, and updates RUC predictions based on an

  9. A model of rotationally-sampled wind turbulence for predicting fatigue loads in wind turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spera, David A.

    1995-01-01

    Empirical equations are presented with which to model rotationally-sampled (R-S) turbulence for input to structural-dynamic computer codes and the calculation of wind turbine fatigue loads. These equations are derived from R-S turbulence data which were measured at the vertical-plane array in Clayton, New Mexico. For validation, the equations are applied to the calculation of cyclic flapwise blade loads for the NASA/DOE Mod-2 2.5-MW experimental HAWT's (horizontal-axis wind turbines), and the results compared to measured cyclic loads. Good correlation is achieved, indicating that the R-S turbulence model developed in this study contains the characteristics of the wind which produce many of the fatigue loads sustained by wind turbines. Empirical factors are included which permit the prediction of load levels at specified percentiles of occurrence, which is required for the generation of fatigue load spectra and the prediction of the fatigue lifetime of structures.

  10. Quantifying the impact of sub-grid surface wind variability on sea salt and dust emissions in CAM5

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Kai; Zhao, Chun; Wan, Hui; Qian, Yun; Easter, Richard C.; Ghan, Steven J; Sakaguchi, Koichi; LIU, Xiaohong

    2016-01-01

    This paper evaluates the impact of sub-grid variability of surface wind on sea salt and dust emissions in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). The basic strategy is to calculate emission fluxes multiple times, using different wind speed samples of a Weibull probability distribution derived from model-predicted grid-box mean quantities. In order to derive the Weibull distribution, the sub-grid standard deviation of surface wind speed is estimated by taking into ac...

  11. Prediction and analysis of infra and low-frequency noise of upwind horizontal axis wind turbine using statistical wind speed model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Gwang-Se; Cheong, Cheolung

    2014-12-01

    Despite increasing concern about low-frequency noise of modern large horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWTs), few studies have focused on its origin or its prediction methods. In this paper, infra- and low-frequency (the ILF) wind turbine noise are closely examined and an efficient method is developed for its prediction. Although most previous studies have assumed that the ILF noise consists primarily of blade passing frequency (BPF) noise components, these tonal noise components are seldom identified in the measured noise spectrum, except for the case of downwind wind turbines. In reality, since modern HAWTs are very large, during rotation, a single blade of the turbine experiences inflow with variation in wind speed in time as well as in space, breaking periodic perturbations of the BPF. Consequently, this transforms acoustic contributions at the BPF harmonics into broadband noise components. In this study, the ILF noise of wind turbines is predicted by combining Lowson's acoustic analogy with the stochastic wind model, which is employed to reproduce realistic wind speed conditions. In order to predict the effects of these wind conditions on pressure variation on the blade surface, unsteadiness in the incident wind speed is incorporated into the XFOIL code by varying incident flow velocities on each blade section, which depend on the azimuthal locations of the rotating blade. The calculated surface pressure distribution is subsequently used to predict acoustic pressure at an observing location by using Lowson's analogy. These predictions are compared with measured data, which ensures that the present method can reproduce the broadband characteristics of the measured low-frequency noise spectrum. Further investigations are carried out to characterize the IFL noise in terms of pressure loading on blade surface, narrow-band noise spectrum and noise maps around the turbine.

  12. Prediction and analysis of infra and low-frequency noise of upwind horizontal axis wind turbine using statistical wind speed model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gwang-Se Lee

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Despite increasing concern about low-frequency noise of modern large horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWTs, few studies have focused on its origin or its prediction methods. In this paper, infra- and low-frequency (the ILF wind turbine noise are closely examined and an efficient method is developed for its prediction. Although most previous studies have assumed that the ILF noise consists primarily of blade passing frequency (BPF noise components, these tonal noise components are seldom identified in the measured noise spectrum, except for the case of downwind wind turbines. In reality, since modern HAWTs are very large, during rotation, a single blade of the turbine experiences inflow with variation in wind speed in time as well as in space, breaking periodic perturbations of the BPF. Consequently, this transforms acoustic contributions at the BPF harmonics into broadband noise components. In this study, the ILF noise of wind turbines is predicted by combining Lowson’s acoustic analogy with the stochastic wind model, which is employed to reproduce realistic wind speed conditions. In order to predict the effects of these wind conditions on pressure variation on the blade surface, unsteadiness in the incident wind speed is incorporated into the XFOIL code by varying incident flow velocities on each blade section, which depend on the azimuthal locations of the rotating blade. The calculated surface pressure distribution is subsequently used to predict acoustic pressure at an observing location by using Lowson’s analogy. These predictions are compared with measured data, which ensures that the present method can reproduce the broadband characteristics of the measured low-frequency noise spectrum. Further investigations are carried out to characterize the IFL noise in terms of pressure loading on blade surface, narrow-band noise spectrum and noise maps around the turbine.

  13. Interpretation of nonlinearity in wind generated ocean surface waves

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Varkey, M.J.

    This study attempts to resolve a mix-up between a physical process and its mathematical interpretation in the context of wind waves on ocean surface. Wind generated wave systems, are conventionally interpreted as a result of interaction of a number...

  14. Widespread land surface wind decline in the Northern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vautard, R.; Cattiaux, J.; Yiou, P.; Thépaut, J.-N.; Ciais, P.

    2010-09-01

    The decline of surface wind observed in many regions of the world is a potential source of concern for wind power electricity generation. It is also suggested as the main cause of decreasing pan evaporation. In China, a persistent and significant decrease of monsoon winds was observed in all seasons. Surface wind declines were also evidenced in several regions of the world (U.S., Australia, several European countries). Except over China, no clear explanation was given for the wind decrease in the regions studied. Whether surface winds decrease is due to changes in the global atmospheric circulation or its variability, in surface processes or to observational trends has therefore not been elucidated. The identification of the drivers of such a decline requires a global investigation of available surface and upper-air wind data, which has not been conducted so far. Here we use global datasets of in-situ wind measurements that contain surface weather stations wind data (hourly or three-hourly data acquisition time step) and rawinsonde vertical wind data profiles (monthly time step) prepared by the NCAR. A set of 822 worldwide surface stations with continuous wind records was selected after a careful elimination of stations with obvious breaks and large gaps. This dataset mostly covers the Northern mid latitudes over the period 1979-2008. Using this data set, we found that annual mean wind speeds have declined at 73% of the surface stations over the past 30 years. In the Northern Hemisphere, positive wind trends are found only in a few places. In Europe, Central Asia, Eastern Asia and in North America the annual mean surface wind speed has decreased on average at a rate of -2.9, -5.9, -4.2, and -1.8 %/decade respectively, i.e. a decrease of about 10% in 30 years and up to about 20% in Central Asia. These results are robust to changes in the station selection method and parameters. By contrast, upper-air winds observed from rawinsondes, geostrophic winds deduced from

  15. Wind farm production prediction - The Zephyr model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Giebel, G. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H. [IMM (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, T.S. [IMM (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Joergensen, J.U. [Danish Meteorologisk Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Lauersen, L. [Danish Meteorologisk Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Toefting, J. [Elsam, Fredericia (DK); Christensen, H.S. [Eltra, Fredericia (Denmark); Bjerge, C. [SEAS, Haslev (Denmark)

    2002-06-01

    This report describes a project - funded by the Danish Ministry of Energy and the Environment - which developed a next generation prediction system called Zephyr. The Zephyr system is a merging between two state-of-the-art prediction systems: Prediktor of Risoe National Laboratory and WPPT of IMM at the Danish Technical University. The numerical weather predictions were generated by DMI's HIRLAM model. Due to technical difficulties programming the system, only the computational core and a very simple version of the originally very complex system were developed. The project partners were: Risoe, DMU, DMI, Elsam, Eltra, Elkraft System, SEAS and E2. (au)

  16. Decadal predictability of regional scale wind speed and wind energy potentials over Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moemken, Julia; Reyers, Mark; Buldmann, Benjamin; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2016-04-01

    Regional climate predictions on timescales from one year to one decade are gaining importance since this time frame falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy, and society. In this context, decadal predictions are of particular interest for the development of renewable energies such as wind energy. The present study examines the decadal predictability of regional scale wind speed and wind energy potentials in the framework of the MiKlip consortium ("Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen"; www.fona-miklip.de). This consortium aims to develop a model system based on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) that can provide skilful decadal predictions on regional and global scales. Three generations of the decadal prediction system, which differ primarily in their ocean initialisation, are analysed here. Ensembles of uninitialised historical and yearly initialised hindcast experiments are used to assess different skill scores for 10m wind speeds and wind energy output (Eout) over Central Europe, with special focus given to Germany. With this aim, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is used for the regionalisation of the global datasets. Its added value is evaluated by comparison of skill scores for MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and SDD simulated regional wind speeds. All three MPI-ESM ensemble generations show some forecast skill for annual mean wind speed and Eout over Central Europe on yearly and multi-yearly time scales. The forecast skill is mostly limited to the first years after initialisation. Differences between the three ensemble generations are generally small. The regionalisation preserves and sometimes increases the forecast skill of the global runs but results depend on lead time and ensemble generation. Moreover, regionalisation often improves the ensemble spread. Seasonal Eout skills are generally lower than for annual means. Skill scores are lowest during summer, and persist longest in autumn. A large-scale westerly

  17. A new ensemble model for short term wind power prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Razvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan;

    2012-01-01

    As the objective of this study, a non-linear ensemble system is used to develop a new model for predicting wind speed in short-term time scale. Short-term wind power prediction becomes an extremely important field of research for the energy sector. Regardless of the recent advancements in the re......-search of prediction models, it was observed that different models have different capabilities and also no single model is suitable under all situations. The idea behind EPS (ensemble prediction systems) is to take advantage of the unique features of each subsystem to detain diverse patterns that exist in the dataset....... The conferred results show that the prediction errors can be decreased, while the computation time is reduced....

  18. Global ocean wind power sensitivity to surface layer stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capps, Scott B.; Zender, Charles S.

    2009-05-01

    Global ocean wind power has recently been assessed (W. T. Liu et al., 2008) using scatterometry-based 10 m winds. We characterize, for the first time, wind power at 80 m (typical wind turbine hub height) above the global ocean surface, and account for the effects of surface layer stability. Accounting for realistic turbine height and atmospheric stability increases mean global ocean wind power by +58% and -4%, respectively. Our best estimate of mean global ocean wind power is 731 W m-2, about 50% greater than the 487 W m-2 based on previous methods. 80 m wind power is 1.2-1.5 times 10 m power equatorward of 30° latitude, between 1.4 and 1.7 times 10 m power in wintertime storm track regions and >6 times 10 m power in stable regimes east of continents. These results are relatively insensitive to methodology as wind power calculated using a fitted Weibull probability density function is within 10% of power calculated from discrete wind speed measurements over most of the global oceans.

  19. Vertical Wind Tunnel for Prediction of Rocket Flight Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hoani Bryson

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available A customized vertical wind tunnel has been built by the University of Canterbury Rocketry group (UC Rocketry. This wind tunnel has been critical for the success of UC Rocketry as it allows the optimization of avionics and control systems before flight. This paper outlines the construction of the wind tunnel and includes an analysis of flow quality including swirl. A minimal modelling methodology for roll dynamics is developed that can extrapolate wind tunnel behavior at low wind speeds to much higher velocities encountered during flight. The models were shown to capture the roll flight dynamics in two rocket launches with mean roll angle errors varying from 0.26° to 1.5° across the flight data. The identified model parameters showed consistent and predictable variations over both wind tunnel tests and flight, including canard–fin interaction behavior. These results demonstrate that the vertical wind tunnel is an important tool for the modelling and control of sounding rockets.

  20. OW ASCAT Ocean Surface Winds - 2-Day Composites

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) sensor onboard the EUMETSAT MetOp polar-orbiting satellite provides ocean surface wind observations by means of radar...

  1. Effect of film slicks on near-surface wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charnotskii, Mikhail; Ermakov, Stanislav; Ostrovsky, Lev; Shomina, Olga

    2016-09-01

    The transient effects of horizontal variation of sea-surface wave roughness due to surfactant films on near-surface turbulent wind are studied theoretically and experimentally. Here we suggest two practical schemes for calculating variations of wind velocity profiles near the water surface, the average short-wave roughness of which is varying in space and time when a film slick is present. The schemes are based on a generalized two-layer model of turbulent air flow over a rough surface and on the solution of the continuous model involving the equation for turbulent kinetic energy of the air flow. Wave tank studies of wind flow over wind waves in the presence of film slicks are described and compared with theory.

  2. Aerodynamic performance prediction of Darrieus-type wind turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion NILĂ

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The prediction of Darrieus wind turbine aerodynamic performances provides the necessarydesign and operational data base related to the wind potential. In this sense it provides the type ofturbine suitable to the area where it is to be installed. Two calculation methods are analyzed for arotor with straight blades. The first one is a global method that allows an assessment of the turbinenominal power by a brief calculation. This method leads to an overestimation of performances. Thesecond is the calculation method of the gust factor and momentum which deals with the pale as beingcomposed of different elements that don’t influence each other. This method, developed based on thetheory of the turbine blades, leads to values close to the statistical data obtained experimentally. Thevalues obtained by the calculation method of gust factor - momentum led to the concept of a Darrieusturbine, which will be tested for different wind values in the INCAS subsonic wind tunnel.

  3. Wind Turbine Gust Prediction Using Remote Sensing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towers, Paul; Jones, Bryn

    2013-11-01

    Offshore wind energy is a growing energy source as governments around the world look for environmentally friendly solutions to potential future energy shortages. In order to capture more energy from the wind, larger turbines are being designed, leading to the structures becoming increasingly vulnerable to damage caused by violent gusts of wind. Advance knowledge of such gusts will enable turbine control systems to take preventative action, reducing turbine maintenance costs. We present a system which can accurately forecast the velocity profile of an oncoming wind, given only limited spatial measurements from light detection and ranging (LiDAR) units, which are currently operational in industry. Our method combines nonlinear state estimation techniques with low-order models of atmospheric boundary-layer flows to generate flow-field estimates. We discuss the accuracy of our velocity profile predictions by direct comparison to data derived from large eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer.

  4. Model predictive control of wind energy conversion systems

    CERN Document Server

    Yaramasu, Venkata Narasimha R

    2017-01-01

    The authors provide a comprehensive analysis on the model predictive control of power converters employed in a wide variety of variable-speed wind energy conversion systems (WECS). The contents of this book includes an overview of wind energy system configurations, power converters for variable-speed WECS, digital control techniques, MPC, modeling of power converters and wind generators for MPC design. Other topics include the mapping of continuous-time models to discrete-time models by various exact, approximate, and quasi-exact discretization methods, modeling and control of wind turbine grid-side two-level and multilevel voltage source converters. The authors also focus on the MPC of several power converter configurations for full variable-speed permanent magnet synchronous generator based WECS, squirrel-cage induction generator based WECS, and semi-variable-speed doubly fed induction generator based WECS.

  5. Structure and predictive skill of strong northeasterly wind events using a limited area numerical weather prediction model at Iqaluit, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John M. Hanesiak

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Strong northeasterly wind events are infrequent over Baffin Island, but are potentially hazardous for aviation and the local community of Iqaluit (the capital of Nunavut, Canada. Three strong northeasterly wind events in this region are examined in this study, using the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale-Limited Area Model (GEM-LAM with a horizontal grid spacing of 2.5 km; in-situ observations; and reanalysis data. The skill of the GEM-LAM in simulating these events is examined. With the exception of one event, the GEM-LAM was successful at predicting the large-scale flow in terms of the circulation pattern, timing of the synoptic set-up and the low-level flow over the Hall Peninsula. The onset and cessation of strong winds and timing of major wind shifts was typically well handled by the model to within ~3 h, but with a tendency to underestimate the peak wind speed. The skill of the surface wind forecasts at Iqaluit is critically dependent on the predicted timing and location of the hydraulic jump and the grid point selected to represent Iqaluit. Examination of the observed and modelled data suggest that the strong northeasterly wind events have several features in common: (1 strong gradient-driven flow across the Hall Peninsula, (2 mean-state critical layer (or reverse shear over the Hall Peninsula, (3 a low-level inversion, typically above the maximum barrier height immediately upstream of the Hall Peninsula, (4 subcritical flow, typically present upstream of the Hall Peninsula and (5 a hydraulic jump in the vicinity of Frobisher Bay. The modelled atmospheric conditions upwind of the Hall Peninsula immediately prior to the formation of the hydraulic jump (and acceleration of winds over the lee slope are largely consistent with the prediction of propagating hydraulic jumps presented in the literature.

  6. The near-surface wind field over the Antarctic continent

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Lipzig, N. P. M.; Turner, J.; Colwell, S. R.; van den Broeke, M. R.

    2004-12-01

    A 14 year integration with a regional atmospheric model has been used to determine the near-surface climatological wind field over the Antarctic ice sheet at a horizontal grid spacing of 55 km. Previous maps of the near-surface wind field were generally based on models ignoring the large-scale pressure-gradient forcing term in the momentum equation. Presently, state-of-the-art atmospheric models include all pressure-gradient forcing terms. Evaluation of our model output against in situ data shows that the model is able to represent realistically the observed increase in wind speed going from the interior to the coast, as well as the observed wind direction at South Pole and Dumont d'Urville and the bimodal wind distribution at Halley.

  7. WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — WSA-Enlil is a large-scale, physics-based prediction model of the heliosphere, used by the Space Weather Forecast Office to provide 1-4 day advance warning of solar...

  8. Wind Characteristics of Coastal and Inland Surface Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subramanian, Chelakara; Lazarus, Steven; Jin, Tetsuya

    2015-11-01

    Lidar measurements of the winds in the surface layer (up to 80 m) inland and near the beach are studied to better characterize the velocity profile and the effect of roughness. Mean and root-mean-squared profiles of horizontal and vertical wind components are analyzed. The effects of variable time (18, 60 and 600 seconds) averaging on the above profiles are discussed. The validity of common surface layer wind profile models to estimate skin friction drag is assessed in light of these measurements. Other turbulence statistics such as auto- and cross- correlations in spatial and temporal domains are also presented. The help of FIT DMES field measurement crew is acknowledged.

  9. Short term forecasting of surface layer wind speed using a continuous cascade model

    CERN Document Server

    Baile, Rachel; Poggi, Philippe

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes a statistical method for short-term forecasting of surface layer wind velocity amplitude relying on the notion of continuous cascades. Inspired by recent empirical findings that suggest the existence of some cascading process in the mesoscale range, we consider that wind speed can be described by a seasonal component and a fluctuating part represented by a "multifractal noise" associated with a random cascade. Performances of our model are tested on hourly wind speed series gathered at various locations in Corsica (France) and Netherlands. The obtained results show a systematic improvement of the prediction as compared to reference models like persistence or Artificial Neural Networks.

  10. Initial-Condition Sensitivities and the Predictability of Downslope Winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-11-01

    stability in the lower tropo - sphere and weaker stability farther aloft. 4. Downslope wind variability In this section, the predictability of the...level to 40 m s21 near the tropo - pause. The stability of the upstream profiles is also very similar between strong and weak members (Figs. 10a,b). A

  11. Ocean Surface Wind Speed of Hurricane Helene Observed by SAR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Qing; Cheng, Yongcun; Li, Xiaofeng

    2011-01-01

    The hurricanes can be detected by many remote sensors, but synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can yield high-resolution (sub-kilometer) and low-level wind information that cannot be seen below the cloud by other sensors. In this paper, an assessment of SAR capability of monitoring high-resolution hur......The hurricanes can be detected by many remote sensors, but synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can yield high-resolution (sub-kilometer) and low-level wind information that cannot be seen below the cloud by other sensors. In this paper, an assessment of SAR capability of monitoring high......-resolution hurricane was conducted. A case study was carried out to retrieve ocean surface wind field from C-band RADARSAT-1 SAR image which captured the structure of hurricane Helene over the Atlantic Ocean on 20 September, 2006. With wind direction from the outputs of U.S. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric...... CIWRAP models have been tested to extract wind speed from SAR data. The SAR retrieved ocean surface winds were compared to the aircraft wind speed observations from stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR). The results show the capability of hurricane wind monitoring by SAR....

  12. Surface wind energy trends near Taiwan in winter since 1871

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The tropical surface wind speed in boreal winter reaches a maximum near Taiwan. This stable wind resource may be used for future clean energy development. How this surface wind energy source has changed in past 141 years is investigated using the 20th century reanalysis dataset and CMIP5 models. Our observational analysis shows that the surface wind speed experienced a weakening trend in the past 141 years (1871 - 2010. The average decreasing rate is around -1.4 m s-1 per century. The decrease is primarily attributed to the relative sea surface temperature (SST cooling in the subtropical North Pacific, which forces a large-scale low-level anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly in situ and is thus responsible for the southerly trend near Taiwan. The relative SST trend pattern is attributed mainly to the greenhouse gas effect associated with anthropogenic activities. The southerly trend near Taiwan is more pronounced in the boreal winter than in summer. Such seasonal difference is attributed to the reversed seasonal mean wind, which promotes more efficient positive feedback in the boreal winter. The CMIP5 historical run analysis reveals that climate models capture less SST warming and large-scale anti-cyclonic circulation in the subtropical North Pacific, but the simulated weakening trend of the surface wind speed near Taiwan is too small.

  13. Bayesian Prediction for The Winds of Winter

    OpenAIRE

    Vale, Richard

    2014-01-01

    Predictions are made for the number of chapters told from the point of view of each character in the next two novels in George R. R. Martin's \\emph{A Song of Ice and Fire} series by fitting a random effects model to a matrix of point-of-view chapters in the earlier novels using Bayesian methods. {\\textbf{SPOILER WARNING: readers who have not read all five existing novels in the series should not read further, as major plot points will be spoiled.}}

  14. Bayesian Prediction for The Winds of Winter

    OpenAIRE

    Vale, Richard

    2014-01-01

    Predictions are made for the number of chapters told from the point of view of each character in the next two novels in George R. R. Martin's \\emph{A Song of Ice and Fire} series by fitting a random effects model to a matrix of point-of-view chapters in the earlier novels using Bayesian methods. {\\textbf{SPOILER WARNING: readers who have not read all five existing novels in the series should not read further, as major plot points will be spoiled.}}

  15. Predicting Siltation in Entrance Channel Based on Wind Conditions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The siltation induced by wind waves in an entrance channel is one of the prime factors influencing the operation efficiency of a port. It is necessary to predict the siltation accurately for dredging and ship operation passing through the entrance of the port. However, it is difficult to apply the traditional method to predicting entrance siltation because of its complex computational procedure and lacking the data of ocean dynamic elements in the specified sea area. From the view of energy conservation, a direct relationship between wind conditions and sediment deposition can be founded. On the basis of the above methodology, an empirical formula expressed by wind conditions for forecasting the siltation in the entrance channel is set up. The wind conditions are easily obtained from the local meteorological stations or weather maps, so the formula established in this paper is more convenient and practical than the traditional method. A case study is provided, in which the emopirical formula is calibrated and verified utilizing the measured wind and siltation conditions in the entrance channel of the port. Comparisons between computed values and measured data show satisfactory agreement.

  16. Wind speed and wind power short and medium range predictions for complex terrain using artificial neural networks and ensemble calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schicker, Irene; Papazek, Petrina; Kann, Alexander; Wang, Yong

    2017-04-01

    Reliable predictions of wind speed and wind power are vital for balancing the electricity network. Within the last two decades the amount of energy stemming from renewable sources increased substantially relying heavily on the prevailing synoptic conditions. Especially for regions with complex terrain and forested surfaces providing reliable predictions is a challenging task. Forecasts in the nowcasting as well as in the (two) day-ahead range are thus essential for the network balancing. Predictions of wind speed and wind power from the nowcasting to the +72-hour forecast range using NWP models in regions with complex terrain need a suitable horizontal, vertical and temporal resolution (e.g. 10 - 15 minute forecasts for the Nowcasting range) requiring high performance computing. To be able to provide sub-hourly to hourly forecasts different approaches such as model output statistics (MOS) or artificial neural networks (ANN) - including feed forward recurrent neural networks, fuzzy logic, particle swarm optimizations - are needed as computational costs are too high. To represent the forecast uncertainties additional probabilistic ensemble predictions are required increasing the computational needs. Ensemble prediction systems account for errors and uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions, parameterizations, numeric, etc. Due to the underestimation of model and sampling errors ensemble predictions tend to be underdispersive and biased. They lack, too, sharpness and reliability. These shortcomings can be accounted for using statistical post-processing methods such as the non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR) to calibrate an ensemble. These calibrated ensembles provide forecasts in the medium range for any arbitrary location where observations are available. In this study an ANN is used to provide forecasts for the nowcasting and medium-range with sub-hourly to hourly predictions for different Austrian sites, including high alpine sites as well as low

  17. Simulation of an Underwater Acoustic Communication Channel Characterized by Wind-Generated Surface Waves and Bubbles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dol, H.S.; Ainslie, M.A.; Colin, M.E.G.D.; Janmaat, J.

    2012-01-01

    Sea surface scattering by wind-generated waves and bubbles is regarded to be the main nonplatform-related cause of the time variability of shallow acoustic communication channels. Simulations for predicting the quality of acoustic communication links in such channels thus require adequate modelling

  18. Simulation of an Underwater Acoustic Communication Channel Characterized by Wind-Generated Surface Waves and Bubbles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dol, H.S.; Colin, M.E.G.D.; Ainslie, M.A.; Walree, P.A. van; Janmaat, J.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract—Sea-surface scattering by wind-generated waves and bubbles is regarded to be the main nonplatform related cause of the time variability of shallow acoustic communication channels. Simulations for predicting the quality of acoustic communication links in such channels thus require adequate m

  19. Simulation of an Underwater Acoustic Communication Channel Characterized by Wind-Generated Surface Waves and Bubbles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dol, H.S.; Colin, M.E.G.D.; Ainslie, M.A.; Walree, P.A. van; Janmaat, J.

    2012-01-01

    Sea surface scattering by wind-generated waves and bubbles is regarded to be the main non-platform related cause of the time variability of shallow acoustic communication channels. Simulations for predicting the quality of acoustic communication links in such channels thus require adequate modeling

  20. Simulation of an Underwater Acoustic Communication Channel Characterized by Wind-Generated Surface Waves and Bubbles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dol, H.S.; Ainslie, M.A.; Colin, M.E.G.D.; Janmaat, J.

    2012-01-01

    Sea surface scattering by wind-generated waves and bubbles is regarded to be the main nonplatform-related cause of the time variability of shallow acoustic communication channels. Simulations for predicting the quality of acoustic communication links in such channels thus require adequate modelling

  1. Simulation of an Underwater Acoustic Communication Channel Characterized by Wind-Generated Surface Waves and Bubbles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dol, H.S.; Colin, M.E.G.D.; Ainslie, M.A.; Walree, P.A. van; Janmaat, J.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract—Sea-surface scattering by wind-generated waves and bubbles is regarded to be the main nonplatform related cause of the time variability of shallow acoustic communication channels. Simulations for predicting the quality of acoustic communication links in such channels thus require adequate m

  2. Simulation of an Underwater Acoustic Communication Channel Characterized by Wind-Generated Surface Waves and Bubbles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dol, H.S.; Colin, M.E.G.D.; Ainslie, M.A.; Walree, P.A. van; Janmaat, J.

    2012-01-01

    Sea surface scattering by wind-generated waves and bubbles is regarded to be the main non-platform related cause of the time variability of shallow acoustic communication channels. Simulations for predicting the quality of acoustic communication links in such channels thus require adequate modeling

  3. Downwind rotor horizontal axis wind turbine noise prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzger, F. B.; Klatte, R. J.

    1981-01-01

    NASA and industry are currently cooperating in the conduct of extensive experimental and analytical studies to understand and predict the noise of large, horizontal axis wind turbines. This effort consists of (1) obtaining high quality noise data under well controlled and documented test conditions, (2) establishing the annoyance criteria for impulse noise of the type generated by horizontal axis wind turbines with rotors downwind of the support tower, (3) defining the wake characteristics downwind of the axial location of the plane of rotation, (4) comparing predictions with measurements made by use of wake data, and (5) comparing predictions with annoyance criteria. The status of work by Hamilton Standard in the above areas which was done in support of the cooperative NASA and industry studies is briefly summarized.

  4. Using meteorological forecasts in on-line predictions of wind power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Torben Skov; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Madsen, Henrik

    1999-01-01

    This report describes a model investigation into wind power prediction model as well as a tool for predicting the power production from wind turbines in an area - the Wind Power Prediction Tool (WPPT). The predictions are based on on-line measurements of power production for a selected set of ref...... of reference wind farms in the area as well as numerical weather predictions covering the locations of the reference wind farms. WPPT is in operational use in the Western part of Denmark and the utilities experiences with the tool is presented.......This report describes a model investigation into wind power prediction model as well as a tool for predicting the power production from wind turbines in an area - the Wind Power Prediction Tool (WPPT). The predictions are based on on-line measurements of power production for a selected set...

  5. The Character of the Solar Wind, Surface Interactions, and Water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, William M.

    2011-01-01

    We discuss the key characteristics of the proton-rich solar wind and describe how it may interact with the lunar surface. We suggest that solar wind can be both a source and loss of water/OH related volatiles, and review models showing both possibilities. Energy from the Sun in the form of radiation and solar wind plasma are in constant interaction with the lunar surface. As such, there is a solar-lunar energy connection, where solar energy and matter are continually bombarding the lunar surface, acting at the largest scale to erode the surface at 0.2 Angstroms per year via ion sputtering [1]. Figure 1 illustrates this dynamically Sun-Moon system.

  6. Prediction of the far field noise from wind energy farms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, K. P.; Hubbard, H. H.

    1986-01-01

    The basic physical factors involved in making predictions of wind turbine noise and an approach which allows for differences in the machines, the wind energy farm configurations and propagation conditions are reviewed. Example calculations to illustrate the sensitivity of the radiated noise to such variables as machine size, spacing and numbers, and such atmosphere variables as absorption and wind direction are presented. It is found that calculated far field distances to particular sound level contours are greater for lower values of atmospheric absorption, for a larger total number of machines, for additional rows of machines and for more powerful machines. At short and intermediate distances, higher sound pressure levels are calculated for closer machine spacings, for more powerful machines, for longer row lengths and for closer row spacings.

  7. Surface Currents and Winds at the Delaware Bay Mouth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muscarella, P A; Barton, N P; Lipphardt, B L; Veron, D E; Wong, K C; Kirwan, A D

    2011-04-06

    Knowledge of the circulation of estuaries and adjacent shelf waters has relied on hydrographic measurements, moorings, and local wind observations usually removed from the region of interest. Although these observations are certainly sufficient to identify major characteristics, they lack both spatial resolution and temporal coverage. High resolution synoptic observations are required to identify important coastal processes at smaller scales. Long observation periods are needed to properly sample low-frequency processes that may also be important. The introduction of high-frequency (HF) radar measurements and regional wind models for coastal studies is changing this situation. Here we analyze synoptic, high-resolution surface winds and currents in the Delaware Bay mouth over an eight-month period (October 2007 through May 2008). The surface currents were measured by two high-frequency radars while the surface winds were extracted from a data-assimilating regional wind model. To illustrate the utility of these monitoring tools we focus on two 45-day periods which previously were shown to present contrasting pictures of the circulation. One, the low-outflow period is from 1 October through 14 November 2007; the other is the high-outflow period from 3 March through 16 April 2008. The large-scale characteristics noted by previous workers are clearly corroborated. Specifically the M2 tide dominates the surface currents, and the Delaware Bay outflow plume is clearly evident in the low frequency currents. Several new aspects of the surface circulation were also identified. These include a map of the spatial variability of the M2 tide (validating an earlier model study), persistent low-frequency cross-mouth flow, and a rapid response of the surface currents to a changing wind field. However, strong wind episodes did not persist long enough to set up a sustained Ekman response.

  8. Assessment of Wind Turbine Structural Integrity using Response Surface Methodology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Svenningsen, Lasse; Moser, Wolfgang

    2016-01-01

    Highlights •A new approach to assessment of site specific wind turbine loads is proposed. •The approach can be applied in both fatigue and ultimate limit state. •Two different response surface methodologies have been investigated. •The model uncertainty introduced by the response surfaces is dete...

  9. Dominant patterns of winter Arctic surface wind variability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Bingyi; John Walsh; LIU Jiping; ZHANG Xiangdong

    2014-01-01

    Dominant statistical patterns of winter Arctic surface wind (WASW) variability and their impacts on Arctic sea ice motion are investigated using the complex vector empirical orthogonal function (CVEOF) method. The results indicate that the leading CVEOF of Arctic surface wind variability, which accounts for 33% of the covariance, is characterized by two different and alternating spatial patterns (WASWP1 and WASWP2). Both WASWP1 and WASWP2 show strong interannual and decadal variations, superposed on their declining trends over past decades. Atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with WASWP1 and WASWP2 exhibit, respectively, equivalent barotropic and some baroclinic characteristics, differing from the Arctic dipole anomaly and the seesaw structure anomaly between the Barents Sea and the Beaufort Sea. On decadal time scales, the decline trend of WASWP2 can be attributed to persistent warming of sea surface temperature in the Greenland—Barents—Kara seas from autumn to winter, relfecting the effect of the Arctic warming. The second CVEOF, which accounts for 18% of the covariance, also contains two different spatial patterns (WASWP3 and WASWP4). Their time evolutions are signiifcantly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the central Arctic Pattern, respectively, measured by the leading EOF of winter sea level pressure (SLP) north of 70°N. Thus, winter anomalous surface wind pattern associated with the NAO is not the most important surface wind pattern. WASWP3 and WASWP4 primarily relfect natural variability of winter surface wind and neither exhibits an apparent trend that differs from WASWP1 or WASWP2. These dominant surface wind patterns strongly inlfuence Arctic sea ice motion and sea ice exchange between the western and eastern Arctic. Furthermore, the Fram Strait sea ice volume lfux is only signiifcantly correlated with WASWP3. The results demonstrate that surface and geostrophic winds are not interchangeable in terms of

  10. The statistical prediction of offshore winds from land-based data for wind-energy applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walmsley, J.L.; Barthelmie, R.J.; Burrows, W.R.

    2001-01-01

    Land-based meteorological measurements at two locations on the Danish coast are used to predict offshore wind speeds. Offshore wind-speed data are used only for developing the statistical prediction algorithms and for verification. As a first step, the two datasets were separated into nine...... percentile-based bins, with a minimum of 30 data records in each bin. Next, the records were randomly selected with approximately 70% of the data in each bin being used as a training set for development of the prediction algorithms, and the remaining 30% being reserved as a test set for evaluation purposes....... The binning procedure ensured that both training and test sets fairly represented the overall data distribution. To base the conclusions on firmer ground, five permutations of these training and test sets were created. Thus, all calculations were based on five cases, each one representing a different random...

  11. Understanding the Role of Wind in Reducing the Surface Mass Balance Estimates over East Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, I.; Scambos, T. A.; Koenig, L.; Creyts, T. T.; Bell, R. E.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Lenaerts, J.; Paden, J. D.

    2014-12-01

    Accurate quantification of surface snow-accumulation over Antarctica is important for mass balance estimates and climate studies based on ice core records. An improved estimate of surface mass balance must include the significant role near-surface wind plays in the sublimation and redistribution of snow across Antarctica. We have developed an empirical model based on airborne radar and lidar observations, and modeled surface mass balance and wind fields to produce a continent-wide prediction of wind-scour zones over Antarctica. These zones have zero to negative surface mass balance, are located over locally steep ice sheet areas (>0.002) and controlled by bedrock topography. The near-surface winds accelerate over these zones, eroding and sublimating the surface snow. This scouring results in numerous localized regions (≤ 200 km2) with reduced surface accumulation. Each year, tens of gigatons of snow on the Antarctic ice sheet are ablated by persistent near-surface katabatic winds over these wind-scour zones. Large uncertainties remain in the surface mass balance estimates over East Antarctica as climate models do not adequately represent the small-scale physical processes that lead to mass loss through sublimation or redistribution over the wind-scour zones. In this study, we integrate Operation IceBridge's snow radar over the Recovery Ice Stream with a series of ice core dielectric and depth-density profiles for improved surface mass balance estimates that reflect the mass loss over the wind-scour zones. Accurate surface mass balance estimates from snow radars require spatially variable depth-density profiles. Using an ensemble of firn cores, MODIS-derived surface snow grain size, modeled accumulation rates and surface temperatures from RACMO2, we assemble spatially variable depth-density profiles and use our mapping of snow density variations to estimate layer mass and net accumulation rates from snow radar layer data. Our study improves the quantification of

  12. Effects of winds, tides and storm surges on ocean surface waves in the Sea of Japan

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Wei; TIAN Jiwei; LI Peiliang; HOU Yijun

    2007-01-01

    Ocean surface waves are strongly forced by high wind conditions associated with winter storms in the Sea of Japan. They are also modulated by tides and storm surges. The effects of the variability in surface wind forcing, tides and storm surges on the waves are investigated using a wave model, a high-resolution atmospheric mesoscale model and a hydrodynamic ocean circulation model. Five month-long wave model simulations are inducted to examine the sensitivity of ocean waves to various wind forcing fields, tides and storm surges during January 1997. Compared with observed mean wave parameters, results indicate that the high frequency variability in the surface wind filed has very great effect on wave simulation. Tides and storm surges have a significant impact on the waves in nearshores of the Tsushima-kaihyō, but not for other regions in the Sea of Japan. High spatial and temporal resolution and good quality surface wind products will be crucial for the prediction of surface waves in the JES and other marginal seas, especially near the coastal regions.

  13. Wind Resource Assessment in Complex Terrain with a High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, Karin; Serafin, Stefano; Grubišić, Vanda; Dorninger, Manfred; Zauner, Rudolf; Fink, Martin

    2014-05-01

    A crucial step in planning new wind farms is the estimation of the amount of wind energy that can be harvested in possible target sites. Wind resource assessment traditionally entails deployment of masts equipped for wind speed measurements at several heights for a reasonably long period of time. Simplified linear models of atmospheric flow are then used for a spatial extrapolation of point measurements to a wide area. While linear models have been successfully applied in the wind resource assessment in plains and offshore, their reliability in complex terrain is generally poor. This represents a major limitation to wind resource assessment in Austria, where high-altitude locations are being considered for new plant sites, given the higher frequency of sustained winds at such sites. The limitations of linear models stem from two key assumptions in their formulation, the neutral stratification and attached boundary-layer flow, both of which often break down in complex terrain. Consequently, an accurate modeling of near-surface flow over mountains requires the adoption of a NWP model with high horizontal and vertical resolution. This study explores the wind potential of a site in Styria in the North-Eastern Alps. The WRF model is used for simulations with a maximum horizontal resolution of 800 m. Three nested computational domains are defined, with the innermost one encompassing a stretch of the relatively broad Enns Valley, flanked by the main crest of the Alps in the south and the Nördliche Kalkalpen of similar height in the north. In addition to the simulation results, we use data from fourteen 10-m wind measurement sites (of which 7 are located within valleys and 5 near mountain tops) and from 2 masts with anemometers at several heights (at hillside locations) in an area of 1600 km2 around the target site. The potential for wind energy production is assessed using the mean wind speed and turbulence intensity at hub height. The capacity factor is also evaluated

  14. A Predictive Model for Wind Farms Using Dynamic Mode Decomposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Vaughan; Meneveau, Charles; Gayme, Dennice

    2016-11-01

    In this work we extend traditional dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) to develop a linear predictive model for the time evolution of the velocity field for a multiple-turbine wind farm. Traditional DMD identifies a set of DMD modes which can be used to produce a linear system that approximates the dynamics of the original system. Typically, these DMD modes consist of those that both grow and decay, but in order to develop a predictive model we need a system that evolves along a manifold that neither grows nor decays. Here we modify the DMD calculation to build such a model. We then apply this method to three dimensional large eddy simulations (LES) of a multi-turbine wind farm. Our predictive wind farm model is initialized with a small time series of data independent of the original data used to create the system. When initialized in this manner our DMD based model can reproduce the subsequent time evolution of the velocity field over ten inter-turbine convective timescales with a gradual falloff in performance. This work is supported by the National Science Foundation (Grants ECCS-1230788 and OISE-1243482, the WINDINSPIRE project).

  15. The Dynamic Stiffness of Surface Footings for Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vahdatirad, Mohammadjavad; Andersen, Lars; Clausen, Johan;

    2011-01-01

    This study concerns the dynamic stiffness of foundations for large offshore wind turbines. Especially, the purpose of the analysis is to quantify the uncertainties related to the first natural frequency of a turbine supported by a surface footing on layered soil. The dynamic properties...... due to sediment transportation. Further, the stiffness and density of the materials within a single layer is subject to uncertainties. This leads to uncertainties of the dynamic stiffness of the foundation and therefore the natural frequencies. The aim of the study is to quantify the level...... of uncertainties and discuss the utilization of reliability-based design of surface footings for wind turbines....

  16. Short-term wind speed predictions with machine learning techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghorbani, M. A.; Khatibi, R.; FazeliFard, M. H.; Naghipour, L.; Makarynskyy, O.

    2016-02-01

    Hourly wind speed forecasting is presented by a modeling study with possible applications to practical problems including farming wind energy, aircraft safety and airport operations. Modeling techniques employed in this paper for such short-term predictions are based on the machine learning techniques of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and genetic expression programming (GEP). Recorded values of wind speed were used, which comprised 8 years of collected data at the Kersey site, Colorado, USA. The January data over the first 7 years (2005-2011) were used for model training; and the January data for 2012 were used for model testing. A number of model structures were investigated for the validation of the robustness of these two techniques. The prediction results were compared with those of a multiple linear regression (MLR) method and with the Persistence method developed for the data. The model performances were evaluated using the correlation coefficient, root mean square error, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and Akaike information criterion. The results indicate that forecasting wind speed is feasible using past records of wind speed alone, but the maximum lead time for the data was found to be 14 h. The results show that different techniques would lead to different results, where the choice between them is not easy. Thus, decision making has to be informed of these modeling results and decisions should be arrived at on the basis of an understanding of inherent uncertainties. The results show that both GEP and ANN are equally credible selections and even MLR should not be dismissed, as it has its uses.

  17. Wind turbine power curve prediction with consideration of rotational augmentation effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, X.; Huang, X.; Sun, S.; Peng, R.

    2016-11-01

    Wind turbine power curve expresses the relationship between the rotor power and the hub wind speed. Wind turbine power curve prediction is of vital importance for power control and wind energy management. To predict power curve, the Blade Element Moment (BEM) method is used in both academic and industrial communities. Due to the limited range of angles of attack measured in wind tunnel testing and the three-dimensional (3D) rotational augmentation effects in rotating turbines, wind turbine power curve prediction remains a challenge especially at high wind speeds. This paper presents an investigation of considering the rotational augmentation effects using characterized lift and drag coefficients from 3D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations coupled in the BEM method. A Matlab code was developed to implement the numerical calculation. The predicted power outputs were compared with the NREL Phase VI wind turbine measurements. The results demonstrate that the coupled method improves the wind turbine power curve prediction.

  18. Effects of surface wind speed decline on hydrology in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, X.; Zhang, X.; Tang, Q.; Zhang, X.

    2013-12-01

    Surface wind speed decline in China has been widely reported, but its effects on hydrology have not been fully evaluated to date. In this study, we evaluate the effects of wind speed decline on hydrology in China during 1966-2011 by using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model. Two model experiments, i.e. VIC simulations with the observed (EXP1) and detrended wind speed (EXP2), are performed in the major river basins in China. The differences between the two experiments are analyzed to assess the effects of wind speed decline on hydrology. Results show that wind speed has decreased by 29% of its mean in China, even by 80% for some areas in the northern China. The wind speed decline have resulted in a decrease of evapotranspiration by 1-3% of mean annual evapotranspiration and an increase of runoff by 1-6% of mean annual runoff at most basins in China. The effect of wind speed on runoff and soil moisture is large in the northern basins where small change in hydrological conditions would have significant implications for water management. In addition, Wind speed decline has offset the expansion of the drought area in China. It has contributed to a reduction of drought areas by 21%, 17%, 15% and 12% for the mean drought area in the Songhuajiang River, Hai River, Liao River and Yellow River basins, respectively, and by 8.8% of the mean drought area over China. The effect of wind speed decline on soil moisture drought is large in most basins in China expect for the Southwest and Pearl River basins.

  19. Smoothing of wind farm output power using prediction based flywheel energy storage system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Farzana

    Being socially beneficial, economically competitive and environment friendly, wind energy is now considered to be the world's fastest growing renewable energy source. However, the stochastic nature of wind imposes a considerable challenge in the optimal management and operation of wind power system. Wind speed prediction is critical for wind energy conversion system since it greatly influences the issues related to effective energy management, dynamic control of wind turbine, and improvement of the overall efficiency of the power generation system. This thesis focuses on integration of energy storage system with wind farm, considering wind speed prediction in the control scheme to overcome the problems associated with wind power fluctuations. In this thesis, flywheel energy storage system (FESS) with adjustable speed rotary machine has been considered for smoothing of output power in a wind farm composed of a fixed speed wind turbine generator (FSWTG). Since FESS has both active and reactive power compensation ability, it enhances the stability of the system effectively. An efficient energy management system combined with supervisory control unit (SCU) for FESS and wind speed prediction has been developed to improve the smoothing of the wind farm output effectively. Wind speed prediction model is developed by artificial neural network (ANN) which has advantages over the conventional prediction scheme including data error tolerance and ease in adaptability. The model for prediction with ANN is developed in MATLAB/Simulink and interfaced with PSCAD/EMTDC. Effectiveness of the proposed control system is illustrated using real wind speed data in various operating conditions.

  20. Measurement and prediction of broadband noise from large horizontal axis wind turbine generators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosveld, F. W.; Shepherd, K. P.; Hubbard, H. H.

    1995-01-01

    A method is presented for predicting the broadband noise spectra of large wind turbine generators. It includes contributions from such noise sources as the inflow turbulence to the rotor, the interactions between the turbulent boundary layers on the blade surfaces with their trailing edges and the wake due to a blunt trailing edge. The method is partly empirical and is based on acoustic measurements of large wind turbines and airfoil models. Spectra are predicted for several large machines including the proposed MOD-5B. Measured data are presented for the MOD-2, the WTS-4, the MOD-OA, and the U.S. Windpower Inc. machines. Good agreement is shown between the predicted and measured far field noise spectra.

  1. Method for predicting impulsive noise generated by wind turbine rotors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viterna, L. A.

    1982-01-01

    Large wind turbines can generate both broad band and impulsive noises. These noises can be controlled by proper choice of rotor design parameters such as rotor location with respect to the supporting tower, tower geometry and tip speed. A method was developed to calculate the impulsive noise generated when the wind turbine blade experiences air forces that are periodic functions of the rotational frequency. This phenomenon can occur when the blades operate in the wake of the support tower and the nonuniform velocity field near the ground due to wind shear. Results from this method were compared with measured sound spectra taken at locations of one to two rotor diameters from the DOE/NASA Mod-1 wind turbine. The calculated spectra generally agreed with the measured data in both the amplitude of the predominant harmonics and the roll of rate with frequency. Measured sound pressure levels far from the Mod-1 (15 rotor diameters), however, were higher than predicted. Simultaneous measurements in the near and far field indicated that the propagation effects could enhance the sound levels by more than 10 dB above that expected by spherical dispersion. These propagation effects are believed to be due to terrain and atmospheric characteristics of the Mod-1 site.

  2. Using FEM to predict tree motion in a wind field

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao-yi HU; Wei-ming TAO; Yi-mu GUO

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we propose a finite element (FE) simulation method to predict tree motion in a wind field. Two FE tree models were investigated: One model was generated based on a realistic nature-looking geometric tree model, and the other was a symmetric model to investigate the influence of asymmetric material properties on tree motion. The vortex-induced vibration (VIV) theory is introduced to estimate the fluctuating wind force being exerted on tree stems and the fluid-structure interaction (FSI) analysis is also included in the simulation. The results indicate that asymmetric material properties result in the crosswind displacement of the investigated node and the main swaying direction deviation. The simulation reveals that under wind loading, a tree with leaves has much larger swaying amplitude along the wind direction and longer swaying period than a tree without leaves.However, the crosswind swaying amplitude is mainly due to branch interaction. The numerical simulation proved that the interaction of tree branches can prevent dangerous swaying motion developing.

  3. Low-Frequency Rotation of Surface Winds over Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard B. Richardson

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Hourly surface observations from the Canadian Weather Energy and Engineering Dataset were analyzed with respect to long-term wind direction drift or rotation. Most of the Canadian landmass, including the High Arctic, exhibits a spatially consistent and remarkably steady anticyclonic rotation of wind direction. The period of anticyclonic rotation recorded at 144 out of 149 Canadian meteostations directly correlated with latitude and ranged from 7 days at Medicine Hat (50°N, 110°W to 25 days at Resolute (75°N, 95°W. Only five locations in the vicinity of the Rocky Mountains and Pacific Coast were found to obey a “negative” (i.e., cyclonic rotation. The observed anticyclonic rotation appears to be a deterministic, virtually ubiquitous, and highly persistent feature of continental surface wind. These findings are directly applicable to probabilistic assessments of airborne pollutants.

  4. Using meteorological forecasts in on-line predictions of wind power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Torben Skov; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Madsen, Henrik;

    1999-01-01

    This report describes a model investigation into wind power prediction model as well as a tool for predicting the power production from wind turbines in an area - the Wind Power Prediction Tool (WPPT). The predictions are based on on-line measurements of power production for a selected set of ref...... of reference wind farms in the area as well as numerical weather predictions covering the locations of the reference wind farms. WPPT is in operational use in the Western part of Denmark and the utilities experiences with the tool is presented....

  5. Distributed Model Predictive Control for Active Power Control of Wind Farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard;

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the active power control of a wind farm using the Distributed Model Predictive Controller (D- MPC) via dual decomposition. Different from the conventional centralized wind farm control, multiple objectives such as power reference tracking performance and wind turbine load can......-scale wind farm control....

  6. The Impact of Sea-Surface Winds on Meteorological Conditions in Israel: An Initial Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otterman, J.; Saaroni, H.; Atlas, R.; Ardizzone, J.; Ben-Dor, E.; Druyan, L.; Jusem, C. J.; Karnieli, A.; Terry, J.

    2000-01-01

    The SSM/I (Spectral Sensor Microwave Imager) dataset is used to monitor surface wind speed and direction at four locations over the Eastern Mediterranean during December 1998 - January 1999. Time series of these data are compared to concurrent series of precipitation, surface temperature, humidity and winds at selected Israeli stations: Sde Dov (coastal), Bet Dagan (5 km. inland), Jerusalem (Judean Hills), Hafetz Haim (3 km. inland) and Sde Boker (central Negev). December 1998 and the beginning of January 1999 were dry in Israel, but significant precipitation was recorded at many stations during the second half of January (1999). SSM/I data show a surge in westerly surface winds west of Israel (32 N, 32.5 E) on 15 January, coinciding with the renewal of precipitation. We discuss the relevant circulation and pressure patterns during this transition in the context of the evolving meteorological conditions at the selected Israeli locations. The SSM/I dataset of near ocean surface winds, available for the last 12 years, is described. We analyze lagged correlation between these data and the Israeli station data and investigate possibility of predictive skill. Application of such relationships to short-term weather prediction would require real-time access to the SSM/I observations.

  7. Determining Land-Surface Parameters from the ERS Wind Scatterometer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woodhouse, I.H.; Hoekman, D.H.

    2000-01-01

    The ERS-1 wind scatterometer (WSC) has a resolution cell of about 50 km but provides a high repetition rate (less than four days) and makes measurements at multiple incidence angles. In order to retrieve quantitative geophysical parameters over land surfaces using this instrument, a method is presen

  8. The Influence of Wind on HF Radar Surface Current Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-12-01

    9 1. Ekman , 1905 .........................................................................................9 2. McNally, Luther and...x THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK xi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Ekman Spiral. – The angle between the wind and the surface current is 45º... Paul Jessen Terry Rago Superv. Gen. Eng. Robert Wyland I also appreciate the Oceanography and Meteorology/Oceanography students

  9. Widespread land surface wind decline in the Northern Hemisphere partly attributed to land surface changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thepaut, J.; Vautard, R.; Cattiaux, J.; Yiou, P.; Ciais, P.

    2010-12-01

    The decline of surface wind observed in many regions of the world is a potential source of concern for wind power electricity generation. It is also suggested as the main cause of decreasing pan evaporation. In China, a persistent and significant decrease of monsoon winds was observed in all seasons. Surface wind declines were also evidenced in several regions of the world (U.S., Australia, several European countries). Except over China, no clear explanation was given for the wind decrease in the regions studied. Whether surface winds decrease is due to changes in the global atmospheric circulation or its variability, in surface processes or to observational trends has therefore not been elucidated. The identification of the drivers of such a decline requires a global investigation of available surface and upper-air wind data, which has not been conducted so far. Here we use global datasets of in-situ wind measurements that contain surface weather stations wind data (hourly or three-hourly data acquisition time step) and rawinsonde vertical wind data profiles (monthly time step) prepared by the NCAR. A set of 822 worldwide surface stations with continuous wind records was selected after a careful elimination of stations with obvious breaks and large gaps. This dataset mostly covers the Northern mid latitudes over the period 1979-2008. Using this data set, we found that annual mean wind speeds have declined at 73% of the surface stations over the past 30 years. In the Northern Hemisphere, positive wind trends are found only in a few places. In Europe, Central Asia, Eastern Asia and in North America the annual mean surface wind speed has decreased on average at a rate of -2.9, -5.9, -4.2, and -1.8 %/decade respectively, i.e. a decrease of about 10% in 30 years and up to about 20% in Central Asia. These results are robust to changes in the station selection method and parameters. By contrast, upper-air winds observed from rawinsondes, geostrophic winds deduced from

  10. Wind-Speed—Surface-Heat-Flux Feedback in Dust Devils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Junshi; Niino, Hiroshi

    2016-06-01

    Strong winds associated with dust devils can induce locally large heat fluxes from the surface, and resulting enhanced buoyancy may further intensify the dust devils. This positive wind—surface-heat-flux feedback is studied using a large-eddy simulation of a convective boundary layer. A comparison of the results with and without the feedback process for the same environment demonstrates the significance of the feedback process for simulated dust devils.

  11. Blended 6-Hourly Sea Surface Wind Vectors and Wind Stress on a Global 0.25 Degree Grid (1987-2011)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Blended Global Sea Surface Winds products contain ocean surface wind vectors and wind stress on a global 0.25 degree grid, in multiple time resolutions of...

  12. Near-nadir microwave specular returns from the sea surface - Altimeter algorithms for wind and wind stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jin

    1992-01-01

    Two approaches have been adopted to construct altimeter wind algorithms: one is based on the mean-square sea surface slope, and the other is based on the Seasat scatterometer wind. Both types of algorithms are critically reviewed with respect to the mechanism governing near-nadir sea returns and the comparison between altimeter and buoy winds. A new algorithm is proposed; it is deduced on the basis of microwave specular reflection and is finely tuned with buoy-measured winds. On the basis of this algorithm and the formula of the wind-stress coefficient, a simple wind-stress algorithm is also proposed.

  13. Spatial development of the wind-driven water surface flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chemin, Rémi; Caulliez, Guillemette

    2015-04-01

    The water velocity field induced by wind and waves beneath an air-water interface is investigated experimentally versus fetch in the large Marseille-Luminy wind wave tank. Measurements of the vertical velocity profiles inside the subsurface shear layer were performed by a three-component Nortek acoustic Doppler velocimeter. The surface drift current was also derived from visualizations of small floating drifters recorded by a video camera looking vertically from above the water surface. Surface wave height and slopes were determined simultaneously by means of capacitance gauges and a single-point laser slope system located in the immediate vicinity of the profiler. Observations were made at steady low to moderate wind speeds and various fetches ranging between 1 and 15 meters. This study first corroborates that the thin subsurface water boundary layer forced by wind at the leading edge of the water sheet is laminar. The surface drift current velocity indeed increases gradually with fetch, following a 1/3 power law characteristic of an accelerated flat-plate laminar boundary layer. The laminar-turbulent transition manifests itself by a sudden decrease in the water surface flow velocity and a rapid deepening of the boundary layer due to the development of large-scale longitudinal vortices. Further downstream, when characteristic capillary-gravity wind waves develop at the surface, the water flow velocity increases again rapidly within a sublayer of typically 4 mm depth. This phenomenon is explained by the occurrence of an intense momentum flux from waves to the mean flow due to the dissipation of parasitic capillaries generated ahead of the dominant wave crests. This phenomenon also sustains significant small-scale turbulent motions within the whole boundary layer. However, when gravity-capillary waves of length longer than 10 cm then grow at the water surface, the mean flow velocity field decreases drastically over the whole boundary layer thickness. At the same

  14. Satellite-derived sea surface height and sea surface wind data fusion for spilled oil tracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozai, Katsutoshi

    2003-12-01

    An attempt is made to estimate the trajectory of the spilled oil from the sunken tanker Nakhodka occurred on January 2, 1997 in the Japan Sea by fusing two microwave sensor data, namely ERS-2 altimeter and ADEOS/NSCAT scatterometer data. In this study 'fusion' is defined as the method of more reliable prediction for the trajectory of spilled oil than before. Geostrophic current vectors are derived from ERS-2 altimeter and wind-induced drift vectors are derived from ADEOS/NSCAT scatterometer data These two different satellite-derived vectors are 'fused' together in the surface current model to estimate and evaluate the trajectory of spilled oil from the sunken tanker Nakhodka. The distribution of component of spill vector is mostly accounted for by the distribution of geostrophic velocity component during the study period with some discrepancies during March, 1997.

  15. Performance and wake predictions of HAWTs in wind farms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leclerc, C.; Masson, C.; Paraschivoiu, I. [Ecole Polytechnique, Montreal (Canada)

    1997-12-31

    The present contribution proposes and describes a promising way towards performance prediction of an arbitrary array of turbines. It is based on the solution of the time-averaged, steady-state, incompressible Navier-Stokes equations with an appropriate turbulence closure model. The turbines are represented by distributions of momentum sources in the Navier-Stokes equations. In this paper, the applicability and viability of the proposed methodology is demonstrated using an axisymmetric implementation. The k-{epsilon} model has been chosen for the closure of the time-averaged, turbulent flow equations and the properties of the incident flow correspond to those of a neutral atmospheric boundary layer. The proposed mathematical model is solved using a Control-Volume Finite Element Method (CVFEM). Detailed results have been obtained using the proposed method for an isolated wind turbine and for two turbines one behind another. In the case of an isolated turbine, accurate wake velocity deficit predictions are obtained and an increase in power due to atmospheric turbulence is found in agreement with measurements. In the case of two turbines, the proposed methodology provides an appropriate modelling of the wind-turbine wake and a realistic prediction of the performance degradation of the downstream turbine.

  16. Forecasting Electricity Spot Prices Accounting for Wind Power Predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2013-01-01

    -varying regression model. In a second step, time-series models, i.e., ARMA and Holt–Winters, are applied to account for residual autocorrelation and seasonal dynamics. Empirical results are presented for out-of-sample forecasts of day-ahead prices in the Western Danish price area of Nord Pool's Elspot, during a two......A two-step methodology for forecasting of electricity spot prices is introduced, with focus on the impact of predicted system load and wind power generation. The nonlinear and nonstationary influence of these explanatory variables is accommodated in a first step based on a nonparametric and time...

  17. Influence of surface stressing on stellar coronae and winds

    CERN Document Server

    Jardine, M; van Ballegooijen, A; Donati, J -F; Morin, J; Fares, R; Gombosi, T I

    2013-01-01

    The large-scale field of the Sun is well represented by its lowest energy (or potential) state. Recent observations, by comparison, reveal that many solar-type stars show large-scale surface magnetic fields that are highly non-potential - that is, they have been stressed above their lowest-energy state. This non-potential component of the surface field is neglected by current stellar wind models. The aim of this paper is to determine its effect on the coronal structure and wind. We use Zeeman-Doppler surface magnetograms of two stars - one with an almost potential, one with a non-potential surface field - to extrapolate a static model of the coronal structure for each star. We find that the stresses are carried almost exclusively in a band of uni-directional azimuthal field that is confined to mid-latitudes. Using this static solution as an initial state for an MHD wind model, we then find that the final state is determined primarily by the potential component of the surface magnetic field. The band of azimut...

  18. Fine-measuring technique and application for sea surface wind by mobile Doppler wind lidar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhishen; Wang, Zhangjun; Wu, Songhua; Liu, Bingyi; Li, Zhigang; Zhang, Xin; Bi, Decang; Chen, Yubao; Li, Rongzhong; Yang, Yuqiang

    2009-06-01

    The Key Laboratory of Ocean Remote Sensing of the Ministry of Education of China, Ocean University of China, has developed the first mobile Doppler wind lidar in China. As an important component of meteorological services for the Good Luck Beijing 2007 Qingdao International Regatta, the mobile Doppler wind lidar was used to measure the sea surface wind (SSW) with 100 m*100 m spatial and 10-min temporal resolution in Qingdao from 15 to 23 August 2007. We present the results from two aspects of this campaign. First, the lidar was operated in the fixed-direction mode and compared to SSW simultaneously measured by a collocated buoy. Second, we present lidar wind measurements throughout the regatta and show good agreement with the match situation of the International Regatta. In addition, we present a case study, accounting for the observation of sailboats stopped by the headwind. With considerable data accumulated, we have shown that the mobile Doppler wind lidar can indeed provide near real-time SSW in support of the sailing games. The lidar has also provided meteorological services for the 2008 Olympic sailing games from 8 to 22 August and Paralympics Sailing Games from 8 to 13 September 2008 in Qingdao.

  19. Super-Eddington stellar winds driven by near-surface energy deposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quataert, Eliot; Fernández, Rodrigo; Kasen, Daniel; Klion, Hannah; Paxton, Bill

    2016-05-01

    We develop analytic and numerical models of the properties of super-Eddington stellar winds, motivated by phases in stellar evolution when super-Eddington energy deposition (via, e.g. unstable fusion, wave heating, or a binary companion) heats a region near the stellar surface. This appears to occur in the giant eruptions of luminous blue variables (LBVs), Type IIn supernovae progenitors, classical novae, and X-ray bursts. We show that when the wind kinetic power exceeds Eddington, the photons are trapped and behave like a fluid. Convection does not play a significant role in the wind energy transport. The wind properties depend on the ratio of a characteristic speed in the problem v_crit˜ (dot{E} G)^{1/5} (where dot{E} is the heating rate) to the stellar escape speed near the heating region vesc(rh). For vcrit ≳ vesc(rh), the wind kinetic power at large radii dot{E}_w ˜ dot{E}. For vcrit ≲ vesc(rh), most of the energy is used to unbind the wind material and thus dot{E}_w ≲ dot{E}. Multidimensional hydrodynamic simulations without radiation diffusion using FLASH and one-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations with radiation diffusion using MESA are in good agreement with the analytic predictions. The photon luminosity from the wind is itself super-Eddington but in many cases the photon luminosity is likely dominated by `internal shocks' in the wind. We discuss the application of our models to eruptive mass-loss from massive stars and argue that the wind models described here can account for the broad properties of LBV outflows and the enhanced mass-loss in the years prior to Type IIn core-collapse supernovae.

  20. Preview Scheduled Model Predictive Control For Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laks, Jason H.

    This research investigates the use of model predictive control (MPC) in application to wind turbine operation from start-up to cut-out. The studies conducted are focused on the design of an MPC controller for a 650˜KW, three-bladed horizontal axis turbine that is in operation at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's National Wind Technology Center outside of Golden, Colorado. This turbine is at the small end of utility scale turbines, but it provides advanced instrumentation and control capabilities, and there is a good probability that the approach developed in simulation for this thesis, will be field tested on the actual turbine. A contribution of this thesis is a method to combine the use of preview measurements with MPC while also providing regulation of turbine speed and cyclic blade loading. A common MPC technique provides integral-like control to achieve offset-free operation. At the same time in wind turbine applications, multiple studies have developed "feed-forward" controls based on applying a gain to an estimate of the wind speed changes obtained from an observer incorporating a disturbance model. These approaches are based on a technique that can be referred to as disturbance accommodating control (DAC). In this thesis, it is shown that offset-free tracking MPC is equivalent to a DAC approach when the disturbance gain is computed to satisfy a regulator equation. Although the MPC literature has recognized that this approach provides "structurally stable" disturbance rejection and tracking, this step is not typically divorced from the MPC computations repeated each sample hit. The DAC formulation is conceptually simpler, and essentially uncouples regulation considerations from MPC related issues. This thesis provides a self contained proof that the DAC formulation (an observer-controller and appropriate disturbance gain) provides structurally stable regulation.

  1. Retrieval algorithm of sea surface wind vectors for WindSat based on a simple forward model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Yili

    2013-01-01

    WindSat/Coriolis is the first satellite-borne polarimetric microwave radiometer,which aims to improve the potential of polarimetric microwave radiometry for measuring sea surface wind vectors from space.In this paper,a wind vector retrieval algorithm based on a novel and simple forward model was developed for WindSat.The retrieval algorithm of sea surface wind speed was developed using multiple linear regression based on the simulation dataset of the novel forward model.Sea surface wind directions that minimize the difference between simulated and measured values of the third and fourth Stokes parameters were found using maximum likelihood estimation,by which a group of ambiguous wind directions was obtained.A median filter was then used to remove ambiguity of wind direction.Evaluated with sea surface wind speed and direction data from the U.S.National Data Buoy Center (NDBC),root mean square errors are 1.2 m/s and 30° for retrieved wind speed and wind direction,respectively.The evaluation results suggest that the simple forward model and the retrieval algorithm are practicable for near-real time applications,without reducing accuracy.

  2. PREDICTION OF POWER GENERATION OF SMALL SCALE VERTICAL AXIS WIND TURBINE USING FUZZY LOGIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Altab Hossain

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Renewable energy from the wind turbine has been focused for the alternative source of power generation due to the following advances of the of the wind turbine. Firstly, the wind turbine is highly efficient and eco-friendly. Secondly, the turbine has the ability to response for the changeable power generation based on the wind velocity and structural framework. However, the competitive efficiency of the wind turbine is necessary to successfully alternate the conventional power sources. The most relevant factor which affects the overall efficiency of the wind turbine is the wind velocity and the relative turbine dimensions. Artificial intelligence systems are widely used technology that can learn from examples and are able to deal with non-linear problems. Compared with traditional approach, fuzzy logic approach is more efficient for the representation, manipulation and utilization. Therefore, the primary purpose of this work was to investigate the relationship between wind turbine power generation and wind velocity, and to illustrate how fuzzy expert system might play an important role in prediction of wind turbine power generation. The main purpose of the measurement over the small scaled prototype vertical axis wind turbine for the wind velocity is to predict the performance of full scaled H-type vertical axis wind turbine. Prediction of power generation at the different wind velocities has been tested at the Thermal Laboratory of Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Industri Selangor (UNISEL and results concerning the daily prediction have been obtained.

  3. Auto-correlation analysis of ocean surface wind vectors

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abhijit Sarkar; Sujit Basu; A K Varma; Jignesh Kshatriya

    2002-09-01

    The nature of the inherent temporal variability of surface winds is analyzed by comparison of winds obtained through different measurement methods. In this work, an auto-correlation analysis of a time series data of surface winds measured in situ by a deep water buoy in the Indian Ocean has been carried out. Hourly time series data available for 240 hours in the month of May, 1999 were subjected to an auto-correlation analysis. The analysis indicates an exponential fall of the auto- correlation in the first few hours with a decorrelation time scale of about 6 hours. For a meaningful comparison between satellite derived products and in situ data, satellite data acquired at different time intervals should be used with appropriate `weights', rather than treating the data as concurrent in time. This paper presents a scheme for temporal weighting using the auto-correlation analysis. These temporal `weights' can potentially improve the root mean square (rms) deviation between satellite and in situ measurements. A case study using the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Indian Ocean buoy wind speed data resulted in an improvement of about 10%.

  4. Predicting wind shear effects: A study of Minnesota wind data collected at heights up to 70 meters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Artig, R. [Minnesota Dept. of Public Service, St. Paul, MN (United States)

    1997-12-31

    The Minnesota Department of Public Service (DPS) collects wind data at carefully selected sites around the state and analyzes the data to determine Minnesota`s wind power potential. DPS recently installed advanced new monitoring equipment at these sites and began to collect wind data at 30, 50, and 70 meters above ground level, with two anemometers at each level. Previously, the Department had not collected data at heights above ground level higher than 30 meters. DPS also, with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), installed four sophisticated monitoring sites as part of a Tall Tower Wind Shear Study that is assessing the effects of wind shear on wind power potential. At these sites, wind data are being collected at the 10, 30, 40, 50, 60, and 70 meter heights. This paper presents the preliminary results of the analysis of wind data from all sites. These preliminary results indicate that the traditional 1/7 power law does not effectively predict wind shear in Minnesota, and the result is an underestimation of Minnesota`s wind power potential at higher heights. Using a power factor of 1/5 or 1/4 may be more accurate and provide sound justification for installing wind turbines on taller towers in Minnesota.

  5. The predictability of large-scale wind-driven flows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mahadevan

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The singular values associated with optimally growing perturbations to stationary and time-dependent solutions for the general circulation in an ocean basin provide a measure of the rate at which solutions with nearby initial conditions begin to diverge, and hence, a measure of the predictability of the flow. In this paper, the singular vectors and singular values of stationary and evolving examples of wind-driven, double-gyre circulations in different flow regimes are explored. By changing the Reynolds number in simple quasi-geostrophic models of the wind-driven circulation, steady, weakly aperiodic and chaotic states may be examined. The singular vectors of the steady state reveal some of the physical mechanisms responsible for optimally growing perturbations. In time-dependent cases, the dominant singular values show significant variability in time, indicating strong variations in the predictability of the flow. When the underlying flow is weakly aperiodic, the dominant singular values co-vary with integral measures of the large-scale flow, such as the basin-integrated upper ocean kinetic energy and the transport in the western boundary current extension. Furthermore, in a reduced gravity quasi-geostrophic model of a weakly aperiodic, double-gyre flow, the behaviour of the dominant singular values may be used to predict a change in the large-scale flow, a feature not shared by an analogous two-layer model. When the circulation is in a strongly aperiodic state, the dominant singular values no longer vary coherently with integral measures of the flow. Instead, they fluctuate in a very aperiodic fashion on mesoscale time scales. The dominant singular vectors then depend strongly on the arrangement of mesoscale features in the flow and the evolved forms of the associated singular vectors have relatively short spatial scales. These results have several implications. In weakly aperiodic, periodic, and stationary regimes, the mesoscale energy

  6. Correlation between dust events in Mongolia and surface wind and precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ganbat Amgalan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study presents dust event spatiotemporal distribution and regional trends, and the impact of surface wind and precipitation on dust occurrences in Mongolia. We used data collected between 2000 and 2013 from 113 meteorological stations in natural forest steppe, steppe, Gobi Desert, and mountain zones. We analyzed the relationship between dusty days, derived using the sum of days with dust storms and/or drifting dust, and days with strong winds (at a threshold wind speed of a constant 6.5 m s-1, hereafter, strong wind days and precipitation by comparing the dusty days in dust-frequent years, dust-less years, and dust-mean years. Dusty days in dust-frequent years were associated with strong wind days when the precipitation is about 10 mm and dust occurrences were suppressed by large amounts of precipitation (approximately 22 mm in dust-less years over the southeastern part of the Gobi Desert in May. We propose a potential dust index (PDI based on the correlations among dusty days, strong winds and precipitation. The PDI performed as predicted in most areas of the country in the spring season.

  7. Field and numerical study of wind and surface waves at short fetches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baydakov, Georgy; Kuznetsova, Alexandra; Sergeev, Daniil; Papko, Vladislav; Kandaurov, Alexander; Vdovin, Maxim; Troitskaya, Yuliya

    2016-04-01

    Measurements were carried out in 2012-2015 from May to October in the waters of Gorky Reservoir belonging to the Volga Cascade. The methods of the experiment focus on the study of airflow in the close proximity to the water surface. The sensors were positioned at the oceanographic Froude buoy including five two-component ultrasonic sensors WindSonic by Gill Instruments at different levels (0.1, 0.85, 1.3, 2.27, 5.26 meters above the mean water surface level), one water and three air temperature sensors, and three-channel wire wave gauge. One of wind sensors (0.1 m) was located on the float tracking the waveform for measuring the wind speed in the close proximity to the water surface. Basic parameters of the atmospheric boundary layer (the friction velocity u∗, the wind speed U10 and the drag coefficient CD) were calculated from the measured profiles of wind speed. Parameters were obtained in the range of wind speeds of 1-12 m/s. For wind speeds stronger than 4 m/s CD values were lower than those obtained before (see eg. [1,2]) and those predicted by the bulk parameterization. However, for weak winds (less than 3 m/s) CD values considerably higher than expected ones. The new parameterization of surface drag coefficient was proposed on the basis of the obtained data. The suggested parameterization of drag coefficient CD(U10) was implemented within wind input source terms in WAVEWATCH III [3]. The results of the numerical experiments were compared with the results obtained in the field experiments on the Gorky Reservoir. The use of the new drag coefficient improves the agreement in significant wave heights HS [4]. At the same time, the predicted mean wave periods are overestimated using both built-in source terms and adjusted source terms. We associate it with the necessity of the adjusting of the DIA nonlinearity model in WAVEWATCH III to the conditions of the middle-sized reservoir. Test experiments on the adjusting were carried out. The work was supported by the

  8. Wind enhances differential air advection in surface snow at sub-meter scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drake, Stephen A.; Selker, John S.; Higgins, Chad W.

    2017-09-01

    Atmospheric pressure gradients and pressure fluctuations drive within-snow air movement that enhances gas mobility through interstitial pore space. The magnitude of this enhancement in relation to snow microstructure properties cannot be well predicted with current methods. In a set of field experiments, we injected a dilute mixture of 1 % carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen gas (N2) of known volume into the topmost layer of a snowpack and, using a distributed array of thin film sensors, measured plume evolution as a function of wind forcing. We found enhanced dispersion in the streamwise direction and also along low-resistance pathways in the presence of wind. These results suggest that atmospheric constituents contained in snow can be anisotropically mixed depending on the wind environment and snow structure, having implications for surface snow reaction rates and interpretation of firn and ice cores.

  9. Importance of thermal effects and sea surface roughness for offshore wind resource assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lange, B.; Larsen, Søren Ejling; Højstrup, Jørgen;

    2004-01-01

    in the Danish Baltic Sea. Monin-Obukhov theory is often used for the description of the wind speed profile. From a given wind speed at one height, the profile is predicted using two parameters, Obukhov length and sea surface roughness. Different methods to estimate these parameters are discussed and compared......-Obukhov theory, a simple correction method to account for this effect has been developed and is tested in the same way. The models for the estimation of the sea surface roughness were found to lead only to small differences. For the purpose of wind resource assessment, even the assumption of a constant roughness......). The power output estimation has also been compared with the method of the resource estimation program WAsP. For the Rodsand data set the prediction error of WAsP is about 4%. For the extrapolation with Monin-Obukhov theory with different L and z(0) estimations, it is 5-9%. The simple wind profile correction...

  10. A Subgrid Parameterization for Wind Turbines in Weather Prediction Models with an Application to Wind Resource Limits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. H. Fiedler

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A subgrid parameterization is offered for representing wind turbines in weather prediction models. The parameterization models the drag and mixing the turbines cause in the atmosphere, as well as the electrical power production the wind causes in the wind turbines. The documentation of the parameterization is complete; it does not require knowledge of proprietary data of wind turbine characteristics. The parameterization is applied to a study of wind resource limits in a hypothetical giant wind farm. The simulated production density was found not to exceed 1 W m−2, peaking at a deployed capacity density of 5 W m−2 and decreasing slightly as capacity density increased to 20 W m−2.

  11. A Wind Power and Load Prediction Based Frequency Control Approach for Wind-Diesel-Battery Hybrid Power System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Peng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A frequency control approach based on wind power and load power prediction information is proposed for wind-diesel-battery hybrid power system (WDBHPS. To maintain the frequency stability by wind power and diesel generation as much as possible, a fuzzy control theory based wind and diesel power control module is designed according to wind power and load prediction information. To compensate frequency fluctuation in real time and enhance system disturbance rejection ability, a battery energy storage system real-time control module is designed based on ADRC (active disturbance rejection control. The simulation experiment results demonstrate that the proposed approach has a better disturbance rejection ability and frequency control performance compared with the traditional droop control approach.

  12. Indian Ocean surface winds from NCMRWF analysis as compared to QuikSCAT and moored buoy winds

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    B N Goswami; E N Rajagopal

    2003-03-01

    The quality of the surface wind analysis at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (NCMRWF), New Delhi over the tropical Indian Ocean and its improvement in 2001 are examined by comparing it with in situ buoy measurements and satellite derived surface winds from NASA QuikSCAT satellite (QSCT) during 1999, 2000 and 2001. The NCMRWF surface winds su ered from easterly bias of 1.0-1.5 ms-1 in the equatorial Indian Ocean (IO) and northerly bias of 2.0-3.0 ms-1 in the south equatorial IO during 1999 and 2000 compared to QSCT winds. The amplitude of daily variability was also underestimated compared to that in QSCT. In particular, the amplitude of daily variability of NCMRWF winds in the eastern equatorial IO was only about 60% of that of QSCT during 1999 and 2000. The NCMRWF surface winds during 2001 have significantly improved with the bias of the mean analyzed winds considerably reduced everywhere bringing it to within 0.5 ms-1 of QSCT winds in the equatorial IO. The amplitude and phase of daily and intraseasonal variability are very close to that in QSCT almost everywhere during 2001. It is shown that the weakness in the surface wind analysis during 1999 and 2000 and its improvement in 2001 are related to the weakness in simulation of precipitation by the forecast model in the equatorial IO and its improvement in 2001.

  13. Numerical Prediction of the Effect of Surface Roughness on Aerodynamic Performance of a Wind Turbine Airfoil%粗糙度对风力机翼型气动性能影响的数值预测

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李德顺; 李仁年; 杨从新; 王秀勇; 李银然

    2011-01-01

    The two-dimensional incompressible N - S equations and the SST k - wind turbine airfoil under rough surface conditions. The DU 95 - W - 180 airfoil that is widely used in wind turbines was chosen as the object. The studies were mainly done as described: the lift coefficient and the drag coefficient of the airfoil under different roughness heights on full surface and different roughness tape locations were computed, the trend of the lift coefficient and the drag coefficient with the roughness height and the roughness tape location were analyzed, the critical value of the roughness height and the roughness tape location, the trends of the lift coefficient, the drag coefficient and the ratio of lift coefficient and drag coefficient with the roughness height at the critical locations were also analyzed and the results were gained.%采用二维不可压缩N-S方程和SST k-ω湍流模型研究了风力机翼型DU 95-W-180在粗糙表面时的空气动力学性能,在整个翼型表面均匀分布不同高度的粗糙带时,得到了该翼型的升力和阻力特性曲线,以及最敏感的粗糙度;同时,研究了在翼型压力面和吸力面的不同位置布置粗糙带时,粗糙带位置对翼型的升力和阻力特性的影响,通过分析得到了该翼型对粗糙带的最敏感位置,并进一步分析了翼型两个敏感位置的粗糙度对翼型升力特性、阻力特性和升阻比的影响.

  14. Impact of Air Pollution on Summer Surface Winds in Xi'an

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨新; 董文杰; 刘芳霞

    2011-01-01

    By analysis of observation data,this paper demonstrates that pollution particles could reduce surface wind speed through blocking solar radiation to the ground.The comparation between temperature at the lowland meteorological station Xi'an and that over the nearby highland station Mt.Hun suggests that surface solar radiation at Xi'an is reduced due to the increasing anthropogenic aerosols.The reduced surface energy suppresses the atmospheric instability and convective flows,and thus the downward transfer of faster winds aloft is reduced.Consequently,wind speeds near surface are weakened.This reduction of surface winds is shown by the significant reverse trends of wind speeds over the two stations at different elevations.The aerosols' effects on winds are also manifested in the trends of radionsonde wind speed.The decreased surface winds in Xi'an have also reduced local pan evaporation.

  15. Prediction of Ductile Fracture Surface Roughness Scaling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Needleman, Alan; Tvergaard, Viggo; Bouchaud, Elisabeth

    2012-01-01

    Experimental observations have shown that the roughness of fracture surfaces exhibit certain characteristic scaling properties. Here, calculations are carried out to explore the extent to which a ductile damage/fracture constitutive relation can be used to model fracture surface roughness scaling....... The scaling properties of the predicted thickness average fracture surfaces are calculated and the results are discussed in light of experimental observations....

  16. Role of Surface Energy Exchange for Simulating Wind Turbine Inflow: A Case Study in the Southern Great Plains, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia Wharton

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is used to investigate choice of land surface model (LSM on the near surface wind profile, including heights reached by multi-megawatt (MW wind turbines. Simulations of wind profiles and surface energy fluxes were made using five LSMs of varying degrees of sophistication in dealing with soil–plant–atmosphere feedbacks for the Department of Energy (DOE Southern Great Plains (SGP Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM Central Facility in Oklahoma, USA. Surface flux and wind profile measurements were available for validation. WRF was run for three, two-week periods covering varying canopy and meteorological conditions. The LSMs predicted a wide range of energy flux and wind shear magnitudes even during the cool autumn period when we expected less variability. Simulations of energy fluxes varied in accuracy by model sophistication, whereby LSMs with very simple or no soil–plant–atmosphere feedbacks were the least accurate; however, the most complex models did not consistently produce more accurate results. Errors in wind shear were also sensitive to LSM choice and were partially related to energy flux accuracy. The variability of LSM performance was relatively high suggesting that LSM representation of energy fluxes in WRF remains a large source of model uncertainty for simulating wind turbine inflow conditions.

  17. Distributed Model Predictive Control of A Wind Farm for Optimal Active Power Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei; Guo, Qinglai;

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a dynamic discrete-time Piece- Wise Affine (PWA) model of a wind turbine for the optimal active power control of a wind farm. The control objectives include both the power reference tracking from the system operator and the wind turbine mechanical load minimization. Instead......, which combines the clustering, linear identification and pattern recognition techniques. The developed model, consisting of 47 affine dynamics, is verified by the comparison with a widely-used nonlinear wind turbine model. It can be used as a predictive model for the Model Predictive Control (MPC......) or other advanced optimal control applications of a wind farm....

  18. The Role of Surface Energy Exchange for Simulating Wind Inflow: An Evaluation of Multiple Land Surface Models in WRF for the Southern Great Plains Site Field Campaign Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wharton, Sonia [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Simpson, Matthew [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Osuna, Jessica [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Newman, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Biraud, Sebastien [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to investigate choice of land surface model (LSM) on the near-surface wind profile, including heights reached by multi-megawatt wind turbines. Simulations of wind profiles and surface energy fluxes were made using five LSMs of varying degrees of sophistication in dealing with soil-plant-atmosphere feedbacks for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility in Oklahoma. Surface-flux and wind-profile measurements were available for validation. The WRF model was run for three two-week periods during which varying canopy and meteorological conditions existed. The LSMs predicted a wide range of energy-flux and wind-shear magnitudes even during the cool autumn period when we expected less variability. Simulations of energy fluxes varied in accuracy by model sophistication, whereby LSMs with very simple or no soil-plant-atmosphere feedbacks were the least accurate; however, the most complex models did not consistently produce more accurate results. Errors in wind shear also were sensitive to LSM choice and were partially related to the accuracy of energy flux data. The variability of LSM performance was relatively high, suggesting that LSM representation of energy fluxes in the WRF model remains a significant source of uncertainty for simulating wind turbine inflow conditions.

  19. Multimodel Modeling and Predictive Control for Direct-Drive Wind Turbine with Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator

    OpenAIRE

    Lei Wang; Tao Shen; Chen Chen

    2014-01-01

    The safety and reliability of the wind turbines wholly depend on the completeness and reliability of the control system which is an important problem for the validity of the wind energy conversion systems (WECSs). A method based on multimodel modeling and predictive control is proposed for the optimal operation of direct-drive wind turbine with permanent magnet synchronous generator in this paper. In this strategy, wind turbine with direct-drive permanent magnet synchronous generator is model...

  20. Multimodel Modeling and Predictive Control for Direct-Drive Wind Turbine with Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator

    OpenAIRE

    Lei Wang; Tao Shen; Chen Chen

    2014-01-01

    The safety and reliability of the wind turbines wholly depend on the completeness and reliability of the control system which is an important problem for the validity of the wind energy conversion systems (WECSs). A method based on multimodel modeling and predictive control is proposed for the optimal operation of direct-drive wind turbine with permanent magnet synchronous generator in this paper. In this strategy, wind turbine with direct-drive permanent magnet synchronous generator is model...

  1. Connecting the surface of the Sun to the Heliosphere : wind speed and magnetic field geometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Rui

    2016-07-01

    The large-scale solar wind speed distribution varies in time in response to the cyclic variations of the strength and geometry of the magnetic field of the corona. Based on this idea, semi-empirical predictive laws for the solar wind speed (such as in the widely-used WSA law) use simple parameters describing the geometry of the coronal magnetic field. In practice, such scaling laws require ad-hoc corrections and empirical fits to in-situ spacecraft data, and a predictive law based solely on physical principles is still missing. I will discuss improvements to this kind of laws based on the analysis of very large samples of wind acceleration profiles in open flux-tubes (both from MHD simulations and potential-field extrapolations), and possible strategies for corona and heliosphere model coupling. I will, furthermore present an ongoing modelling effort to determine the magnetic connectivity, paths and propagation delays of any type of disturbance (slow/fast solar wind, waves, energetic particles, ballistic propagation) between the solar surface and any point in the interplanetary space at any time. This is a key point for the exploitation of data from Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus, and more generally for establishing connections between remote and in-situ spacecraft data. This is work is supported by the FP7 project #606692 (HELCATS).

  2. Wind-induced contaminant transport in near-surface soils with application to radon entry into buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Riley, W J [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    1996-05-01

    Indoor air exposures to gaseous contaminants originating in soil can cause large human health risks. To predict and control these exposures, the mechanisms that affect vapor transport in near-surface soils need to be understood. In particular, radon exposure is a concern since average indoor radon concentrations lead to much higher risks than are generally accepted for exposure to other environmental contaminants. This dissertation examines an important component of the indoor radon problem: the impacts of wind on soil-gas and radon transport and entry into buildings. The research includes experimental and modeling studies of wind`s interactions with a building`s superstructure and the resulting soil-gas and radon flows in the surrounding soil. In addition to exploring the effects of steady winds, a novel modeling technique is developed to examine the impacts of fluctuating winds on soil-gas and radon transport.

  3. Predictive Understanding of the Oceans' Wind-Driven Circulation on Interdecadal Time Scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghil, Michael [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and IGPP; Temam, Roger [Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN (United States). Dept. of Mathematics; Feliks, Y. [IIBR (France); Simonnet, E. [INLN (France); Tachim-Medjo, T. [Florida International Univ. (FIU), Miami, FL (United States)

    2008-09-30

    The goal of this project was to obtain a predictive understanding of a major component of the climate system's interdecadal variability: the oceans' wind-driven circulation. To do so, we developed and applied advanced computational and statistical methods to the problem of climate variability and climate change. The methodology was developed first for models of intermediate complexity, such as the quasi-geostrophic and the primitive equations, which describe the wind-driven, near-surface flow in mid-latitude ocean basins. Our computational work consisted in developing efficient multi-level methods to simulate this flow and study its dependence on physically relevant parameters. Our oceanographic and climate work consisted in applying these methods to study the bifurcations in the wind-driven circulation and their relevance to the flows observed at present and those that might occur in a warmer climate. Both aspects of the work are crucial for the efficient treatment of large-scale, eddy-resolving numerical simulations of the oceans and an increased understanding and better prediction of climate change. Considerable progress has been achieved in understanding ocean-atmosphere interaction in the mid-latitudes. An important by-product of this research is a novel approach to explaining the North Atlantic Oscillation.

  4. Prediction of Magnetospheric Disturbances Caused by a Quasi-Stationary Solar Wind

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    V. G. Eselevich; M.V. Eselevich

    2005-01-01

    When predicting parameters of quasi-stationary Solar Wind (SW) streams at 1 AU, it is customary to use, as the indicator of solar sources, the Bases of Open Magnetic Tubes (BOMT) on the solar surface obtained via a calculation relying on a new Bd-technique of harmonic expansion of the magnetic field from daily full-disk magnetograms developed by Rudenko[4]. By considering an example of 17 events, it is shown that the correspondence between fast SW streams at the Earth's orbit and the BOMT, calculated with ≤ 24 h time resolution, makes up about 94%, while the correspondence of SW stereams with the CH in the light of the 10830 A line is about 29%. With this technique, the predictability of maxima of the Kp index of magnetospheric disturbance caused by a fast quasi-stationary SW, is over 90%, and the prediction accuracy of the maximun velocity vm of the stream is ±15%.

  5. The influence of wind speed on surface layer stability and turbulent fluxes over southern Indian peninsula station

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    M N Patil; R T Waghmare; T Dharmaraj; G R Chinthalu; Devendraa Siingh; G S Meena

    2016-10-01

    Surface to atmosphere exchange has received much attention in numerical weather prediction models. This exchange is defined by turbulent parameters such as frictional velocity, drag coefficient and heat fluxes, which have to be derived experimentally from high-frequency observations. High-frequency measurementsof wind speed, air temperature and water vapour mixing ratio (eddy covariance measurements), were made during the Integrated Ground Observation Campaign (IGOC) of Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX) at Mahabubnagar, India (16◦44'N, 77◦59'E) in the south-west monsoon season. Using these observations, an attempt was made to investigatethe behaviour of the turbulent parameters, mentioned above, with respect to wind speed. We found that the surface layer stability derived from the Monin–Obukhov length scale, is well depicted by the magnitude of wind speed, i.e., the atmospheric boundary layer was under unstable regime for wind speeds greater than 4 m s−1; under stable regime for wind speeds less than 2 m s−1 and under neutral regime for wind speeds in the range of 2–3 m s$^{−1}$. All the three stability regimes were mixed for wind speeds 3–4 m s$^{−1}$. The drag coefficient shows scatter variation with wind speed in stable as well as unstable conditions.

  6. The influence of wind speed on surface layer stability and turbulent fluxes over southern Indian peninsula station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, M. N.; Waghmare, R. T.; Dharmaraj, T.; Chinthalu, G. R.; Siingh, Devendraa; Meena, G. S.

    2016-09-01

    Surface to atmosphere exchange has received much attention in numerical weather prediction models. This exchange is defined by turbulent parameters such as frictional velocity, drag coefficient and heat fluxes, which have to be derived experimentally from high-frequency observations. High-frequency measurements of wind speed, air temperature and water vapour mixing ratio (eddy covariance measurements), were made during the Integrated Ground Observation Campaign (IGOC) of Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX) at Mahabubnagar, India (16∘44'N, 77∘59'E) in the south-west monsoon season. Using these observations, an attempt was made to investigate the behaviour of the turbulent parameters, mentioned above, with respect to wind speed. We found that the surface layer stability derived from the Monin-Obukhov length scale, is well depicted by the magnitude of wind speed, i.e., the atmospheric boundary layer was under unstable regime for wind speeds >4 m s-1; under stable regime for wind speeds <2 m s-1 and under neutral regime for wind speeds in the range of 2-3 m s-1. All the three stability regimes were mixed for wind speeds 3-4 m s-1. The drag coefficient shows scatter variation with wind speed in stable as well as unstable conditions.

  7. Features of wind field over the sea surface in the coastal area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monzikova, A. K.; Kudryavtsev, V. N.; Myasoedov, A. G.; Chapron, B.; Zilitinkevich, S. S.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we analyze SAR wind field features, in particular the effects of wind shadowing. These effects represent the dynamics of the internal atmospheric boundary layer, which is formed due to the transition of the air flow arriving from the rough land surface to the "smooth" water surface. In the wind-shadowed area, the flow accelerates, and a surface wind stress increases with fetch. The width of the shadow depends not only on the wind speed and atmospheric boundary layer stratification, but also on geographic features such as windflow multiple transformations over the complex surface land-Lake Chudskoe-land-Gulf of Finland. Measurements showed that, in the area of wind acceleration, the surface stress normalized by an equilibrium value (far from the coast) is a universal function of dimensionless fetch Xf/G. Surface wind stress reaches an equilibrium value at Xf/G ≈ 0.4, which is the scale of the planetary-boundary-layer relaxation.

  8. Space Weathering of the Lunar Surface by Solar Wind Particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sungsoo S.; Sim, Chaekyung

    2017-08-01

    The lunar regolith is space-weathered to a different degree in response to the different fluxes of incident solar wind particles and micrometeoroids. Crater walls, among other slating surfaces, are good tracers of the space-weathering process because they mature differently depending on the varying incident angles of weathering agents. We divide a crater wall into four quadrants (north, south, east, and west) and analyze the distribution of 950-nm/750-nm reflectance-ratio and 750-nm reflectance values in each wall quadrant, using the topography-corrected images by Multispectral Imager (MI) onboard SELENE (Kaguya). For thousands of impact craters across the Moon, we interpret the spectral distributions in the four wall quadrants in terms of the space weathering by solar wind particles and micrometeoroids and of gardening by meteroids. We take into account the solar-wind shielding by the Earth’s magnetotail to correctly assess the different spectral behaviors between east- and west-facing walls of the craters in the near-side of the Moon.

  9. Measurements of wind friction speeds over lava surfaces and assessment of sediment transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greeley, Ronald; Iversen, James D.

    1987-01-01

    Wind velocity profiles were obtained over alluvial plains, lava flows, and a cinder cone in the Mojave Desert to determine the wind shear and the potential for particle transport. It was found that aerodynamic roughness for winds increases nearly a factor of 5 as flow crosses from the alluvium to the lava surface, resulting in wind shear that is 21 percent greater. Thus, wind erosion and sand flux may be substantially enhanced over the lava field. Moreover, wind flow turbulence is enhanced in the wake of the cinder cone, which also increases erosion and sediment transportation by the wind.

  10. DISTRIBUTED EXTERNAL SURFACE HARDENING OF CAR DESIGN BY WINDING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. V. Fomin

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The paper involves coverage of features and results of the research conducted by the authors to determine the feasibility and establishment of pre-stressed-strained state of freight cars by winding in order to improve their strength characteristics. It is also necessary to present the theoretical justification for the effectiveness of the application of this method for car designs and an appropriate example for the tank-car. Methodology. The conducted study is based on an analysis of known works on the subject, mathematical justification and computer modeling. At the calculations of rolling stock components contemporary conventional techniques were used. Findings. Authors found that the winding method for pre-stressed-strained state is effective and appropriate for use in the construction of railway rolling stock and, in particular freight cars. Freight car designs with the pre-stressed-strained state are characterized by a number of strength advantages, among which there is an improvement of the work on the perception of operational loads and resource conservation. Originality. For the first time it is proposed the improvement of bearing capacity of freight car constructions through the creation of its component in the directed stress-strained state. It is also for the first time proposed the use of distributed external surface hardening by the method of winding to create a pre-stress-strained state of structural components of freight cars. The methods for winding designs of freight cars and their implementation were considered. Practical value. The studies developed a number of technical solutions for improving the design of freight cars and tank-container, which has been patented. Corresponding solutions for the tank-car are partially presented. Practical implementation of such solutions will significantly improve the technical, economic and operational performances of car designs.

  11. Observing seasonal variations of sea surface wind speed and significant wave height using TOPEX altimetry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    One year of ocean topography experiment (TOPEX) altimeter data are used to study the seasonal variations of global sea surface wind speed and significant wave height. The major wind and wave zones of the world oceans are precisely identified, their seasonal variability and characteristics are quantitatively analyzed, and the diversity of global wind speed seasonality and the variability of significant wave height in response to sea surface wind speed are also revealed.

  12. Retrieval of ocean surface wind stress and drag coefficient from spaceborne SAR

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨劲松; 黄韦艮; 周长宝

    2001-01-01

    A model for retrieval of wind stress and drag coefficient on the sea surface with the data measured by spacebome synthetic aperture radar (SAR) has been developed based on the SAR imaging mechanisms of ocean surface capillary waves and short gravity waves. This model consists of radiometric calibration, wind speed retrieval and wind stress and drag coefficient calculation. A Radarsat SAR image has been used to calculate wind stress and drag coeffi cient. Good results have been achieved.

  13. High resolution observations of the near-surface wind field over an isolated mountain and in a steep river canyon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. W. Butler

    2014-06-01

    numerical grid resolutions of around 4 km or larger wind predictions are not likely to be good predictors of local near-surface winds at sub-grid scales in complex terrain. The data from this effort are archived and available at: http://www.firemodels.org/index.php/windninja-introduction/windninja-publications.

  14. Wind flow and wind loads on the surface of a tower-shaped building:Numerical simulations and wind tunnel experiment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Flow structure and wind pressure distribution caused by obtuse obstacles are usually the focuses in Computational Wind Engineer researches (CWE). By solving the non-hydrostatical dynamic equations, PUMA model (Peking University Model of Atmospheric Environment) was developed and applied to simulating the flow structure and wind pressure distribution around a tower-shaped building. Evaluation about the wind environment and wind loads around the building was obtained through the analysis of the numerical simulation results and wind tunnel data. Comparisons between the simulation and wind tunnel study indicate that numerical simulation results agree well in the flow field and wind pressure distribution around the tower-shaped building. On the other hand, the horizontal grid interval of 2 m and the vertical grid of 3 m were still too crude to simulate the flow structure and wind pressure distribution on the building surface more exactly in detail; and the absence of suitable pressure perturbation parameterization scheme between the solid and the adjacent space also limits the accuracy of the numerical simulation. The numerical simulation model can be used to evaluate the wind environment and wind load around high buildings.

  15. Complex terrain wind resource estimation with the wind-atlas method: Prediction errors using linearized and nonlinear CFD micro-scale models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Troen, Ib; Bechmann, Andreas; Kelly, Mark C.

    2014-01-01

    Using the Wind Atlas methodology to predict the average wind speed at one location from measured climatological wind frequency distributions at another nearby location we analyse the relative prediction errors using a linearized flow model (IBZ) and a more physically correct fully non-linear 3D...

  16. Comments on Navy/NRL requirements for sea surface temperature and surface wind measurements on Seasat-A

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruskin, R. E.; Jeck, R. K., Jr.

    1974-01-01

    SEASAT instrumentation payload requirements to provide satellite data for the Navy fleet operational fog prediction program include: (1) some form of C-band microwave radiometer capability; (2) a scanning antenna with a 40-km Instanteneous Field of View (IFOV) for the C-band channel; (3) a narrow band and high resolution IR scanning radiometer for cloud free areas; and (4) a capability for measuring surface winds of 3 to 50 m/sec at + or - 10% accuracy and 50 to 100 km spatial resolution.

  17. Effect of accuracy of wind power prediction on power system operator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlueter, R. A.; Sigari, G.; Costi, T.

    1985-01-01

    This research project proposed a modified unit commitment that schedules connection and disconnection of generating units in response to load. A modified generation control is also proposed that controls steam units under automatic generation control, fast responding diesels, gas turbines and hydro units under a feedforward control, and wind turbine array output under a closed loop array control. This modified generation control and unit commitment require prediction of trend wind power variation one hour ahead and the prediction of error in this trend wind power prediction one half hour ahead. An improved meter for predicting trend wind speed variation is developed. Methods for accurately simulating the wind array power from a limited number of wind speed prediction records was developed. Finally, two methods for predicting the error in the trend wind power prediction were developed. This research provides a foundation for testing and evaluating the modified unit commitment and generation control that was developed to maintain operating reliability at a greatly reduced overall production cost for utilities with wind generation capacity.

  18. Changes in Surface Wind Speed over North America from CMIP5 Model Projections and Implications for Wind Energy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujay Kulkarni

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The centennial trends in the surface wind speed over North America are deduced from global climate model simulations in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5 (CMIP5 archive. Using the 21st century simulations under the RCP 8.5 scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, 5–10 percent increases per century in the 10 m wind speed are found over Central and East-Central United States, the Californian Coast, and the South and East Coasts of the USA in winter. In summer, climate models projected decreases in the wind speed ranging from 5 to 10 percent per century over the same coastal regions. These projected changes in the surface wind speed are moderate and imply that the current estimate of wind power potential for North America based on present-day climatology will not be significantly changed by the greenhouse gas forcing in the coming decades.

  19. Estimation of Near Surface Wind Speeds in Strongly Rotating Flows

    CERN Document Server

    Crowell, Sean; Wicker, Louis

    2013-01-01

    Modeling studies consistently demonstrate that the most violent winds in tornadic vortices occur in the lowest tens of meters above the surface. These velocities are unobservable by radar platforms due to line of sight consider- ations. In this work, a methodology is developed which utilizes parametric tangential velocity models derived from Doppler radar measurements, to- gether with a tangential momentum and mass continuity constraint, to esti- mate the radial and vertical velocities in a steady axisymmetric frame. The main result is that information from observations aloft can be extrapolated into the surface layer of the vortex. The impact of the amount of information available to the retrieval is demonstrated through some numerical tests with pseudo-data.

  20. Wave Disturbance Reduction of a Floating Wind Turbine Using a Reference Model-based Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Søren; Tabatabaeipour, Seyed Mojtaba; Bak, Thomas;

    2013-01-01

    Floating wind turbines are considered as a new and promising solution for reaching higher wind resources beyond the water depth restriction of monopile wind turbines. But on a floating structure, the wave-induced loads significantly increase the oscillations of the structure. Furthermore, using...... a controller designed for an onshore wind turbine yields instability in the fore-aft rotation. In this paper, we propose a general framework, where a reference model models the desired closed-loop behavior of the system. Model predictive control combined with a state estimator finds the optimal rotor blade...... compared to a baseline floating wind turbine controller at the cost of more pitch action....

  1. Body Surface Area Prediction in Odorrana grahami

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guiying CHEN; Jiongyu LIU; Qiang DAI; Jianping JIANG

    2014-01-01

    Body surface area (BSA) was regarded as a more readily quantiifable parameter relative to body mass in the normalization of comparative biochemistry and physiology. The BSA prediction has attracted unceasing research back more than a century on animals, especially on humans and rats. Few studies in this area for anurans were reported, and the equation for body surface area (S) and body mass (W):S=9.9 W 0.56, which was concluded from toads of four species in 1969, was generally adopted to estimate the body surface areas for anurans until recent years. However, this equation was not applicable to Odorrana grahami. The relationship between body surface area and body mass for this species was established as:S=15.4 W 0.579. Our current results suggest estimation equations should be used cautiously across different species and body surface area predictions on more species need to be conducted.

  2. Surfaces. [characterization of surface properties for predicting bond quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, D. H.

    1983-01-01

    Techniques for the characterization of surface cleanliness and roughness for predicting the quality of an adhesive bond are outlined. Generally, smooth surfaces are only available from cleavage of crystalline materials along a natural cleavage plane. Films must be deposited on metal surfaces to achieve the same smoothness. Once the surfaces are clean, however, reaction with the ambient atmosphere becomes likely through diffusive and absorption processes, producing asperities. Electron diffraction, Auger electron, and X ray emission spectroscopy are used to characterize surface condition. Once the surface is observed to be clean, the application of an adhesive will usually prohibit separation along the adhesive; separation is then confined to the weaker of the two materials. Finally, the use of polytetrafluorothylene adhesive to test the adhesion between polymers and metal surfaces is described.

  3. Preliminary Investigations on Uncertainty Analysis of Wind-Wave Predictions in Lake Michigan

    CERN Document Server

    Nekouee, Navid

    2015-01-01

    With all the improvement in wave and hydrodynamics numerical models, the question rises in our mind that how the accuracy of the forcing functions and their input can affect the results. In this paper, a commonly used numerical third generation wave model, SWAN is applied to predict waves in Lake Michigan. Wind data were analyzed to determine wind variation frequency over Lake Michigan. Wave predictions uncertainty due to wind local effects were compared during a period where wind had a fairly constant speed and direction over the northern and southern basins. The study shows that despite model calibration in Lake Michigan area, the model deficiency arises from ignoring wind effects in small scales. Wave prediction also emphasizes that small scale turbulence in meteorological forces can increase error in predictions up to 35%. Wave frequency and coherence analysis showed that both models are able to reveal the time scale of the wave variation with same accuracy. Insufficient number of meteorological stations ...

  4. Ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) and Superstorm Sandy (2012): Coupled model predictions and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuyi S.; Curcic, Milan

    2016-07-01

    Forecasting hurricane impacts of extreme winds and flooding requires accurate prediction of hurricane structure and storm-induced ocean surface waves days in advance. The waves are complex, especially near landfall when the hurricane winds and water depth varies significantly and the surface waves refract, shoal and dissipate. In this study, we examine the spatial structure, magnitude, and directional spectrum of hurricane-induced ocean waves using a high resolution, fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model and observations. The coupled model predictions of ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) over the Gulf of Mexico and Superstorm Sandy (2012) in the northeastern Atlantic and coastal region are evaluated with the NDBC buoy and satellite altimeter observations. Although there are characteristics that are general to ocean waves in both hurricanes as documented in previous studies, wave fields in Ike and Sandy possess unique properties due mostly to the distinct wind fields and coastal bathymetry in the two storms. Several processes are found to significantly modulate hurricane surface waves near landfall. First, the phase speed and group velocities decrease as the waves become shorter and steeper in shallow water, effectively increasing surface roughness and wind stress. Second, the bottom-induced refraction acts to turn the waves toward the coast, increasing the misalignment between the wind and waves. Third, as the hurricane translates over land, the left side of the storm center is characterized by offshore winds over very short fetch, which opposes incoming swell. Landfalling hurricanes produce broader wave spectra overall than that of the open ocean. The front-left quadrant is most complex, where the combination of windsea, swell propagating against the wind, increasing wind-wave stress, and interaction with the coastal topography requires a fully coupled model to meet these challenges in hurricane wave and surge prediction.

  5. Prediction of wind power potential by wind speed probability distribution in a hilly terrain near Bh

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahmed, Siraj; Diwakar, Nilesh

    2010-09-15

    Daily wind speed data in metre per second and its direction of flow in degree were recorded from of the India Meteorological Department for a site near the Bhopal Airport for the period of eleven years. The influence of roughness of the terrain, obstacles and topography in terms of contour for the area were also taken into consideration. These data were analysed using WAsP programme and regional wind climate of the area was determined. It is seen from the analysis of the wind speed data and keeping the topographical variation of terrain, exploitable wind speed is experienced at 50 m.

  6. Importance of Dynamic Inflow Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Knudsen, Torben; Overgaard, Anders;

    2015-01-01

    The efficiency of including dynamic inflow in the model based design of wind turbine controller has been discussed for many years in the wind energy community with out getting to a safe conclusion. This paper delivers a good argument in favor of including dynamic inflow. The main contributions...

  7. LONG TERM WIND SPEED PREDICTION USING WAVELET COEFFICIENTS AND SOFT COMPUTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manju Khanna

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In the past researches, scholars have carried out short-term prediction for wind speed. The present work deals with long-term wind speed prediction, required for hybrid power generation design and contract planning. As the total database is quite large for long-term prediction, feature extraction of data by application of Lifting wavelet coefficients is exploited, along with soft computing techniques for time series data, which is scholastic in nature.

  8. LONG TERM WIND SPEED PREDICTION USING WAVELET COEFFICIENTS AND SOFT COMPUTING

    OpenAIRE

    Manju Khanna; Srinath, N. K; K. Mendiratta

    2016-01-01

    In the past researches, scholars have carried out short-term prediction for wind speed. The present work deals with long-term wind speed prediction, required for hybrid power generation design and contract planning. As the total database is quite large for long-term prediction, feature extraction of data by application of Lifting wavelet coefficients is exploited, along with soft computing techniques for time series data, which is scholastic in nature.

  9. Predictability of surface currents and fronts off the Mississippi Delta

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walker, N.D.; Rouse, L.J.; Wiseman, W.J. [Louisiana State Univ., Baton Rouge, LA (United States)

    2001-07-01

    The dynamic coastal region of the lower Mississippi River was examined under varying conditions of wind, river discharge and circulation patterns of the Gulf of Mexico. Nearly 7,000 deep-sea merchant vessels enter the port complex each year and the area boasts the highest concentration of offshore drilling rigs, rendering the Mississippi delta and adjacent coastal areas vulnerable to risk from oil spills. Satellite imagery has been useful in tracking movements of the Mississippi river plume as recognizable turbidity and temperature fronts are formed where river waters encounter ambient shelf waters. Oil spill modelers often base their predictions of oil movement on the surface wind field and surface currents, but past studies have indicated that this can be overly simplistic in regions affected by river flow because river fronts have significant control over the movement of oil in opposition to prevailing winds. Frontal zones, such as those found where river waters meet oceanic waters, are characterized by strong convergence of surface flow. These frontal zones can provide large and efficient traps or natural booms for spilled oil. In an effort to facilitate cleanup operations, this study made use of the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) AVHRR satellite imagery of temperature and reflectance to study front locations and their variability in space and time. The main objectives were to quantify surface temperature structure and locations of fronts throughout the year using satellite image data, to map the structure of the Mississippi sediment plume and to assess the forcing factors responsible for its variability over space and time. The final objective was to use in-situ measurements of surface currents together with satellite image data to better understand surface flow in this region of strong and variable currents. It was concluded that the main factors controlling circulation in the Mississippi River outflow region are river discharge and

  10. Wind erosion in semiarid landscapes: Predictive models and remote sensing methods for the influence of vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musick, H. Brad

    1993-01-01

    The objectives of this research are: to develop and test predictive relations for the quantitative influence of vegetation canopy structure on wind erosion of semiarid rangeland soils, and to develop remote sensing methods for measuring the canopy structural parameters that determine sheltering against wind erosion. The influence of canopy structure on wind erosion will be investigated by means of wind-tunnel and field experiments using structural variables identified by the wind-tunnel and field experiments using model roughness elements to simulate plant canopies. The canopy structural variables identified by the wind-tunnel and field experiments as important in determining vegetative sheltering against wind erosion will then be measured at a number of naturally vegetated field sites and compared with estimates of these variables derived from analysis of remotely sensed data.

  11. Comparison of surface wind stress measurements - Airborne radar scatterometer versus sonic anemometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brucks, J. T.; Leming, T. D.; Jones, W. L.

    1980-01-01

    Sea surface wind stress measurements recorded by a sonic anemometer are correlated with airborne scatterometer measurements of ocean roughness (cross section of radar backscatter) to establish the accuracy of remotely sensed data and assist in the definition of geophysical algorithms for the scatterometer sensor aboard Seasat A. Results of this investigation are as follows: Comparison of scatterometer and sonic anemometer wind stress measurements are good for the majority of cases; however, a tendency exists for scatterometer wind stress to be somewhat high for higher wind conditions experienced in this experiment (6-9 m/s). The scatterometer wind speed algorithm tends to overcompute the higher wind speeds by approximately 0.5 m/s. This is a direct result of the scatterometer overestimate of wind stress from which wind speeds are derived. Algorithmic derivations of wind speed and direction are, in most comparisons, within accuracies defined by Seasat A scatterometer sensor specifications.

  12. Estimation of uncertainty of wind energy predictions with application to weather routing and wind power generation

    CERN Document Server

    Zastrau, David

    2017-01-01

    Wind drives in combination with weather routing can lower the fuel consumption of cargo ships significantly. For this reason, the author describes a mathematical method based on quantile regression for a probabilistic estimate of the wind propulsion force on a ship route.

  13. Near Real Time MISR Wind Observations for Numerical Weather Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, K. J.; Protack, S.; Rheingans, B. E.; Hansen, E. G.; Jovanovic, V. M.; Baker, N.; Liu, J.; Val, S.

    2014-12-01

    The Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) project, in association with the NASA Langley Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC), has this year adapted its original production software to generate near-real time (NRT) cloud-motion winds as well as radiance imagery from all nine MISR cameras. These products are made publicly available at the ASDC with a latency of less than 3 hours. Launched aboard the sun-synchronous Terra platform in 1999, the MISR instrument continues to acquire near-global, 275 m resolution, multi-angle imagery. During a single 7 minute overpass of any given area, MISR retrieves the stereoscopic height and horizontal motion of clouds from the multi-angle data, yielding meso-scale near-instantaneous wind vectors. The ongoing 15-year record of MISR height-resolved winds at 17.6 km resolution has been validated against independent data sources. Low-level winds dominate the sampling, and agree to within ±3 ms-1 of collocated GOES and other observations. Low-level wind observations are of particular interest to weather forecasting, where there is a dearth of observations suitable for assimilation, in part due to reliability concerns associated with winds whose heights are assigned by the infrared brightness temperature technique. MISR cloud heights, on the other hand, are generated from stereophotogrammetric pattern matching of visible radiances. MISR winds also address data gaps in the latitude bands between geostationary satellite coverage and polar orbiting instruments that obtain winds from multiple overpasses (e.g. MODIS). Observational impact studies conducted by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and by the German Weather Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) have both demonstrated forecast improvements when assimilating MISR winds. An impact assessment using the GEOS-5 system is currently in progress. To benefit air quality forecasts, the MISR project is currently investigating the feasibility of generating near-real time aerosol products.

  14. Standardizing the performance evaluation of short-term wind prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, G.

    2005-01-01

    Short-term wind power prediction is a primary requirement for efficient large-scale integration of wind generation in power systems and electricity markets. The choice of an appropriate prediction model among the numerous available models is not trivial, and has to be based on an objective...... evaluation of model performance. This paper proposes a standardized protocol for the evaluation of short-term wind-poser preciction systems. A number of reference prediction models are also described, and their use for performance comparison is analysed. The use of the protocol is demonstrated using results...

  15. An optimal design of wind turbine and ship structure based on neuro-response surface method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Chul Lee

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The geometry of engineering systems affects their performances. For this reason, the shape of engineering systems needs to be optimized in the initial design stage. However, engineering system design problems consist of multi-objective optimization and the performance analysis using commercial code or numerical analysis is generally time-consuming. To solve these problems, many engineers perform the optimization using the approximation model (response surface. The Response Surface Method (RSM is generally used to predict the system performance in engi-neering research field, but RSM presents some prediction errors for highly nonlinear systems. The major objective of this research is to establish an optimal design method for multi-objective problems and confirm its applicability. The proposed process is composed of three parts: definition of geometry, generation of response surface, and optimization process. To reduce the time for performance analysis and minimize the prediction errors, the approximation model is generated using the Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network (BPANN which is considered as Neuro-Response Surface Method (NRSM. The optimization is done for the generated response surface by non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II. Through case studies of marine system and ship structure (substructure of floating offshore wind turbine considering hydrodynamics performances and bulk carrier bottom stiffened panels considering structure performance, we have confirmed the applicability of the proposed method for multi-objective side constraint optimization problems.

  16. An optimal design of wind turbine and ship structure based on neuro-response surface method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Jae-Chul

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The geometry of engineering systems affects their performances. For this reason, the shape of engineering systems needs to be optimized in the initial design stage. However, engineering system design problems consist of multi-objective optimization and the performance analysis using commercial code or numerical analysis is generally time-consuming. To solve these problems, many engineers perform the optimization using the approximation model (response surface. The Response Surface Method (RSM is generally used to predict the system performance in engineering research field, but RSM presents some prediction errors for highly nonlinear systems. The major objective of this research is to establish an optimal design method for multi-objective problems and confirm its applicability. The proposed process is composed of three parts: definition of geometry, generation of response surface, and optimization process. To reduce the time for performance analysis and minimize the prediction errors, the approximation model is generated using the Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network (BPANN which is considered as Neuro-Response Surface Method (NRSM. The optimization is done for the generated response surface by non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II. Through case studies of marine system and ship structure (substructure of floating offshore wind turbine considering hydrodynamics performances and bulk carrier bottom stiffened panels considering structure performance, we have confirmed the applicability of the proposed method for multi-objective side constraint optimization problems.

  17. Development and Application of Advanced Weather Prediction Technologies for the Wind Energy Industry (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahoney, W. P.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.; Myers, W.; Johnson, D.

    2010-12-01

    Wind energy decision makers are required to make critical judgments on a daily basis with regard to energy generation, distribution, demand, storage, and integration. Accurate knowledge of the present and future state of the atmosphere is vital in making these decisions. As wind energy portfolios expand, this forecast problem is taking on new urgency because wind forecast inaccuracies frequently lead to substantial economic losses and constrain the national expansion of renewable energy. Improved weather prediction and precise spatial analysis of small-scale weather events are crucial for renewable energy management. In early 2009, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) began a collaborative project with Xcel Energy Services, Inc. to perform research and develop technologies to improve Xcel Energy's ability to increase the amount of wind energy in their generation portfolio. The agreement and scope of work was designed to provide highly detailed, localized wind energy forecasts to enable Xcel Energy to more efficiently integrate electricity generated from wind into the power grid. The wind prediction technologies are designed to help Xcel Energy operators make critical decisions about powering down traditional coal and natural gas-powered plants when sufficient wind energy is predicted. The wind prediction technologies have been designed to cover Xcel Energy wind resources spanning a region from Wisconsin to New Mexico. The goal of the project is not only to improve Xcel Energy’s wind energy prediction capabilities, but also to make technological advancements in wind and wind energy prediction, expand our knowledge of boundary layer meteorology, and share the results across the renewable energy industry. To generate wind energy forecasts, NCAR is incorporating observations of current atmospheric conditions from a variety of sources including satellites, aircraft, weather radars, ground-based weather stations, wind profilers, and even wind sensors on

  18. An adaptive short-term prediction scheme for wind energy storage management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blonbou, Ruddy, E-mail: ruddy.blonbou@univ-ag.f [Geosciences and Energy Research Laboratory, Universite des Antilles et de la Guyane, Guadeloupe (France); Monjoly, Stephanie; Dorville, Jean-Francois [Geosciences and Energy Research Laboratory, Universite des Antilles et de la Guyane, Guadeloupe (France)

    2011-06-15

    Research highlights: {yields} We develop a real time algorithm for grid-connected wind energy storage management. {yields} The method aims to guarantee, with {+-}5% error margin, the power sent to the grid. {yields} Dynamic scheduling of energy storage is based on short-term energy prediction. {yields} Accurate predictions reduce the need in storage capacity. -- Abstract: Efficient forecasting scheme that includes some information on the likelihood of the forecast and based on a better knowledge of the wind variations characteristics along with their influence on power output variation is of key importance for the optimal integration of wind energy in island's power system. In the Guadeloupean archipelago (French West-Indies), with a total wind power capacity of 25 MW; wind energy can represent up to 5% of the instantaneous electricity production. At this level, wind energy contribution can be equivalent to the current network primary control reserve, which causes balancing difficult. The share of wind energy is due to grow even further since the objective is set to reach 118 MW by 2020. It is an absolute evidence for the network operator that due to security concerns of the electrical grid, the share of wind generation should not increase unless solutions are found to solve the prediction problem. The University of French West-Indies and Guyana has developed a short-term wind energy prediction scheme that uses artificial neural networks and adaptive learning procedures based on Bayesian approach and Gaussian approximation. This paper reports the results of the evaluation of the proposed approach; the improvement with respect to the simple persistent prediction model was globally good. A discussion on how such a tool combined with energy storage capacity could help to smooth the wind power variation and improve the wind energy penetration rate into island utility network is also proposed.

  19. Analytical Modeling of Wind Farms: A New Approach for Power Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Niayifar

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Wind farm power production is known to be strongly affected by turbine wake effects. The purpose of this study is to develop and test a new analytical model for the prediction of wind turbine wakes and the associated power losses in wind farms. The new model is an extension of the one recently proposed by Bastankhah and Porté-Agel for the wake of stand-alone wind turbines. It satisfies the conservation of mass and momentum and assumes a self-similar Gaussian shape of the velocity deficit. The local wake growth rate is estimated based on the local streamwise turbulence intensity. Superposition of velocity deficits is used to model the interaction of the multiple wakes. Furthermore, the power production from the wind turbines is calculated using the power curve. The performance of the new analytical wind farm model is validated against power measurements and large-eddy simulation (LES data from the Horns Rev wind farm for a wide range of wind directions, corresponding to a variety of full-wake and partial-wake conditions. A reasonable agreement is found between the proposed analytical model, LES data, and power measurements. Compared with a commonly used wind farm wake model, the new model shows a significant improvement in the prediction of wind farm power.

  20. Inter-annual variability of sea surface temperature, wind speed and sea surface height anomaly over the tropical Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Muraleedharan, P.M.; Pankajakshan, T.; Sathe, P.V.

    have made an attempt to study the annual and inter-annual variability of certain prominent processes occurring over the tropical Indian Ocean. The monthly mean values of Wind Speed (FSU), Sea Surface Temperature (REYNOLDS) and Sea Surface Height Anomaly...

  1. Sea surface wind speed estimation from space-based lidar measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hu

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Global satellite observations of lidar backscatter measurements acquired by the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO mission and collocated sea surface wind speed data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E, are used to investigate the relation between wind driven wave slope variance and sea surface wind speed. The new slope variance – wind speed relation established from this study is similar to the linear relation from Cox-Munk (1954 and the log-linear relation from Wu (1972, 1990 for wind speed larger than 7 m/s and 13.3 m/s, respectively. For wind speed less than 7 m/s, the slope variance is proportional to the square root of the wind speed, assuming a two dimensional isotropic Gaussian wave slope distribution. This slope variance – wind speed relation becomes linear if a one dimensional Gaussian wave slope distribution is assumed. Contributions from whitecaps and subsurface backscattering are effectively removed by using 532 nm lidar depolarization measurements. This new slope variance – wind speed relation is used to derive sea surface wind speed from CALIPSO single shot lidar measurements (70 m spot size, after correcting for atmospheric attenuation. The CALIPSO wind speed result agrees with the collocated AMSR-E wind speed, with 1.2 m/s rms error.

  2. Addressing Spatial Variability of Surface-Layer Wind with Long-Range WindScanners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg, Jacob; Vasiljevic, Nikola; Kelly, Mark C.;

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of mean wind measurements from a coordinated system of long-range WindScanners. From individual scan patterns the mean wind field was reconstructed over a large area, and hence it highlights the spatial variability. From comparison with sonic anemometers, the quality...

  3. Improving Surface Flux Parameterizations in the Navy’s Coastal Ocean Atmosphere Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-07

    Improving Surface Flux Parameterizations in the Navy’s Coastal Ocean Atmosphere Prediction System Shouping Wang Naval Research Laboratory...this research is to improve the surface flux and boundary layer turbulence parameteri- zation in COAMPS®1 for low- and high-wind events over the...processes and developing new parameterizations for the surface and boundary layer turbulence mixing. We pro- vide real-time COAMPS weather forecasts

  4. On Practical tuning of Model Uncertainty in Wind Turbine Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Hovgaard, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Model predictive control (MPC) has in previous works been applied on wind turbines with promising results. These results apply linear MPC, i.e., linear models linearized at different operational points depending on the wind speed. The linearized models are derived from a nonlinear first principle...

  5. Predicted Impacts of Proton Temperature Anisotropy on Solar Wind Turbulence

    OpenAIRE

    Klein, Kristopher G; Howes, Gregory G.

    2015-01-01

    Particle velocity distributions measured in the weakly collisional solar wind are frequently found to be non-Maxwellian, but how these non-Maxwellian distributions impact the physics of plasma turbulence in the solar wind remains unanswered. Using numerical solutions of the linear dispersion relation for a collisionless plasma with a bi-Maxwellian proton velocity distribution, we present a unified framework for the four proton temperature anisotropy instabilities, identifying the associated s...

  6. Surface deformations and wave generation by wind blowing over a viscous liquid

    CERN Document Server

    Paquier, Anna; Rabaud, Marc

    2015-01-01

    We investigate experimentally the early stage of the generation of waves by a turbulent wind at the surface of a viscous liquid. The spatio-temporal structure of the surface deformation is analyzed by the optical method Free Surface Synthetic Schlieren, which allows for time-resolved measurements with a micrometric accuracy. Because of the high viscosity of the liquid, the flow induced by the turbulent wind in the liquid remains laminar, with weak surface drift velocity. Two regimes of deformation of the liquid-air interface are identified. In the first regime, at low wind speed, the surface is dominated by rapidly propagating disorganized wrinkles, elongated in the streamwise direction, which can be interpreted as the surface response to the pressure fluctuations advected by the turbulent airflow. The amplitude of these deformations increases approximately linearly with wind velocity and are essentially independent of the fetch (distance along the channel). Above a threshold in wind speed, the perturbations ...

  7. Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using a Hybrid Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

    2017-05-01

    This paper aims to develop and apply a hybrid model of two data analytical methods, multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), for ultra-short-term wind power prediction (WPP), for example taking, Northeast China electricity demand. The data was obtained from the historical records of wind power from an offshore region, and from a wind farm of the wind power plant in the areas. The WPP achieved in two stages: first, the ratios of wind power were forecasted using the proposed hybrid method, and then the transformation of these ratios of wind power to obtain forecasted values. The hybrid model combines the persistence methods, MLR and LS. The proposed method included two prediction types, multi-point prediction and single-point prediction. WPP is tested by applying different models such as autoregressive moving average (ARMA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN). By comparing results of the above models, the validity of the proposed hybrid model is confirmed in terms of error and correlation coefficient. Comparison of results confirmed that the proposed method works effectively. Additional, forecasting errors were also computed and compared, to improve understanding of how to depict highly variable WPP and the correlations between actual and predicted wind power.

  8. Energy Yield prediction of offshore wind farm clusters at the EERA–DTOC European project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cantero, E.; Sanz, J.; Lozano, S.;

    A new integrated design tool for optimization of offshore wind farm clusters is under development in the European Energy Research Alliance – Design Tools for Offshore wind farm Cluster project (EERA DTOC). The project builds on already established design tools from the project partners and possibly...... of uncertainty associated to each step. Methodologies for the assessment of offshore gross annual energy production are analyzed based on the Fino 1 test case. Measured data and virtual data from Numerical Weather Prediction models have been used to calculate long term mean wind speed, vertical wind profile...

  9. Scattering by Artificial Wind and Rain Roughened Water Surfaces at Oblique Incidences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craeye, C.; Sobieski, P. W.; Bliven, L. F.

    1997-01-01

    Rain affects wind retrievals from scatterometric measurements of the sea surface. To depict the additional roughness caused by rain on a wind driven surface, we use a ring-wave spectral model. This enables us to analyse the rain effect on K(u) band scatterometric observations from two laboratory experiments. Calculations based on the small perturbation method provide good simulation of scattering measurements for the rain-only case, whereas for combined wind and rain cases, the boundary perturbation method is appropriate.

  10. Predicting the Energy Output of Wind Farms Based on Weather Data: Important Variables and their Correlation

    CERN Document Server

    Vladislavleva, Katya; Neumann, Frank; Wagner, Markus

    2011-01-01

    Wind energy plays an increasing role in the supply of energy world-wide. The energy output of a wind farm is highly dependent on the weather condition present at the wind farm. If the output can be predicted more accurately, energy suppliers can coordinate the collaborative production of different energy sources more efficiently to avoid costly overproductions. With this paper, we take a computer science perspective on energy prediction based on weather data and analyze the important parameters as well as their correlation on the energy output. To deal with the interaction of the different parameters we use symbolic regression based on the genetic programming tool DataModeler. Our studies are carried out on publicly available weather and energy data for a wind farm in Australia. We reveal the correlation of the different variables for the energy output. The model obtained for energy prediction gives a very reliable prediction of the energy output for newly given weather data.

  11. Prediction of surface distress using neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdi, Hadiwardoyo, Sigit P.; Correia, A. Gomes; Pereira, Paulo; Cortez, Paulo

    2017-06-01

    Road infrastructures contribute to a healthy economy throughout a sustainable distribution of goods and services. A road network requires appropriately programmed maintenance treatments in order to keep roads assets in good condition, providing maximum safety for road users under a cost-effective approach. Surface Distress is the key element to identify road condition and may be generated by many different factors. In this paper, a new approach is aimed to predict Surface Distress Index (SDI) values following a data-driven approach. Later this model will be accordingly applied by using data obtained from the Integrated Road Management System (IRMS) database. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are used to predict SDI index using input variables related to the surface of distress, i.e., crack area and width, pothole, rutting, patching and depression. The achieved results show that ANN is able to predict SDI with high correlation factor (R2 = 0.996%). Moreover, a sensitivity analysis was applied to the ANN model, revealing the influence of the most relevant input parameters for SDI prediction, namely rutting (59.8%), crack width (29.9%) and crack area (5.0%), patching (3.0%), pothole (1.7%) and depression (0.3%).

  12. Improving Wind Predictions in the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer through Parameter Estimation in a Single-Column Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jared A.; Hacker, Joshua P.; Delle Monache, Luca; Kosović, Branko; Clifton, Andrew; Vandenberghe, Francois; Rodrigo, Javier Sanz

    2016-12-14

    A current barrier to greater deployment of offshore wind turbines is the poor quality of numerical weather prediction model wind and turbulence forecasts over open ocean. The bulk of development for atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) parameterization schemes has focused on land, partly due to a scarcity of observations over ocean. The 100-m FINO1 tower in the North Sea is one of the few sources worldwide of atmospheric profile observations from the sea surface to turbine hub height. These observations are crucial to developing a better understanding and modeling of physical processes in the marine ABL. In this study, we use the WRF single column model (SCM), coupled with an ensemble Kalman filter from the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), to create 100-member ensembles at the FINO1 location. The goal of this study is to determine the extent to which model parameter estimation can improve offshore wind forecasts.

  13. Predicting extreme loads effects on wind turbines considering uncertainty in airfoil data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abdallah, Imad; Natarajan, Anand; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2013-01-01

    The sources contributing to uncertainty in a wind turbine blade static airfoil data include wind tunnel testing, CFD calculations, 3D rotational corrections based on CFD or empirical models, surface roughness corrections, Reynolds number corrections, expansion to the full 360-degree angle of atta...

  14. Predicting the Extreme Loads on a Wind Turbine Considering Uncertainty in Airfoil Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abdallah, Imad; Natarajan, Anand; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    The sources contributing to uncertainty in a wind turbine blade static airfoil data include wind tunnel testing, CFD calculations, 3D rotational corrections based on CFD or emprircal models, surface roughness corrections, Reynolds number corrections, expansion to the full 360-degree angle of atta...

  15. Spatial models for probabilistic prediction of wind power with application to annual-average and high temporal resolution data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lenzi, Amanda; Pinson, Pierre; Clemmensen, Line Katrine Harder;

    2016-01-01

    Producing accurate spatial predictions for wind power generation together with a quantification of uncertainties is required to plan and design optimal networks of wind farms. Toward this aim, we propose spatial models for predicting wind power generation at two different time scales: for annual...... that our method makes it possible to obtain fast and accurate predictions from posterior marginals for wind power generation. The proposed method is applicable in scientific areas as diverse as climatology, environmental sciences, earth sciences and epidemiology....

  16. Sea Surface Wakes Observed by Spaceborne SAR in the Offshore Wind Farms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaoming; Lehner, Susanne; Jacobsen, Sven

    2014-11-01

    In the paper, we present some X-band spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) TerraSAR-X (TS-X) images acquired at the offshore wind farms in the North Sea and the East China Sea. The high spatial resolution SAR images show different sea surface wake patterns downstream of the offshore wind turbines. The analysis suggests that there are major two types of wakes among the observed cases. The wind turbine wakes generated by movement of wind around wind turbines are the most often observed cases. In contrast, due to the strong local tidal currents in the near shore wind farm sites, the tidal current wakes induced by tidal current impinging on the wind turbine piles are also observed in the high spatial resolution TS-X images. The discrimination of the two types of wakes observed in the offshore wind farms is also described in the paper.

  17. A preliminary assessment of the sea surface wind speed production of HY-2 scanning microwave radiometer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG Xiaoqi; ZHU Jianhua; LIN Mingsen; ZHAO Yili; WANG He; CHEN Chuntao; PENG Hailong; ZHANG Youguang

    2014-01-01

    A scanning microwave radiometer (RM) was launched on August 16, 2011, on board HY-2 satellite. The six-month long global sea surface wind speeds observed by the HY-2 scanning microwave radiometer are preliminarily validated using in-situ measurements and WindSat observations, respectively, from January to June 2012. The wind speed root-mean-square (RMS) difference of the comparisons with in-situ data is 1.89 m/s for the measurements of NDBC and 1.72 m/s for the recent four-month data measured by PY30-1 oil platform, respectively. On a global scale, the wind speeds of HY-2 RM are compared with the sea surface wind speeds derived from WindSat, the RMS difference of 1.85 m/s for HY-2 RM collocated observations data set is calculated in the same period as above. With analyzing the global map of a mean difference between HY-2 RM and WindSat, it appears that the bias of the sea surface wind speed is obviously higher in the inshore regions. In the open sea, there is a relatively higher positive bias in the mid-latitude regions due to the overestimation of wind speed observations, while the wind speeds are underestimated in the Southern Ocean by HY-2 RM relative to WindSat observations.

  18. Two decades [1992-2012] of surface wind analyses based on satellite scatterometer observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desbiolles, Fabien; Bentamy, Abderrahim; Blanke, Bruno; Roy, Claude; Mestas-Nuñez, Alberto M.; Grodsky, Semyon A.; Herbette, Steven; Cambon, Gildas; Maes, Christophe

    2017-04-01

    Surface winds (equivalent neutral wind velocities at 10 m) from scatterometer missions since 1992 have been used to build up a 20-year climate series. Optimal interpolation and kriging methods have been applied to continuously provide surface wind speed and direction estimates over the global ocean on a regular grid in space and time. The use of other data sources such as radiometer data (SSM/I) and atmospheric wind reanalyses (ERA-Interim) has allowed building a blended product available at 1/4° spatial resolution and every 6 h from 1992 to 2012. Sampling issues throughout the different missions (ERS-1, ERS-2, QuikSCAT, and ASCAT) and their possible impact on the homogeneity of the gridded product are discussed. In addition, we assess carefully the quality of the blended product in the absence of scatterometer data (1992 to 1999). Data selection experiments show that the description of the surface wind is significantly improved by including the scatterometer winds. The blended winds compare well with buoy winds (1992-2012) and they resolve finer spatial scales than atmospheric reanalyses, which make them suitable for studying air-sea interactions at mesoscale. The seasonal cycle and interannual variability of the product compare well with other long-term wind analyses. The product is used to calculate 20-year trends in wind speed, as well as in zonal and meridional wind components. These trends show an important asymmetry between the southern and northern hemispheres, which may be an important issue for climate studies.

  19. Observations of C-Band Brightness Temperature and Ocean Surface Wind Speed and Rain Rate in Hurricanes Earl And Karl (2010)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Timothy; James, Mark; Roberts, Brent J.; Biswax, Sayak; Uhlhorn, Eric; Black, Peter; Linwood Jones, W.; Johnson, Jimmy; Farrar, Spencer; Sahawneh, Saleem

    2012-01-01

    Ocean surface emission is affected by: a) Sea surface temperature. b) Wind speed (foam fraction). c) Salinity After production of calibrated Tb fields, geophysical fields wind speed and rain rate (or column) are retrieved. HIRAD utilizes NASA Instrument Incubator Technology: a) Provides unique observations of sea surface wind, temp and rain b) Advances understanding & prediction of hurricane intensity c) Expands Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer capabilities d) Uses synthetic thinned array and RFI mitigation technology of Lightweight Rain Radiometer (NASA Instrument Incubator) Passive Microwave C-Band Radiometer with Freq: 4, 5, 6 & 6.6 GHz: a) Version 1: H-pol for ocean wind speed, b) Version 2: dual ]pol for ocean wind vectors. Performance Characteristics: a) Earth Incidence angle: 0deg - 60deg, b) Spatial Resolution: 2-5 km, c) Swath: approx.70 km for 20 km altitude. Observational Goals: WS 10 - >85 m/s RR 5 - > 100 mm/hr.

  20. Coordinated Voltage Control of a Wind Farm based on Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei; Guo, Qinglai

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents an autonomous wind farm voltage controller based on Model Predictive Control (MPC). The reactive power compensation and voltage regulation devices of the wind farm include Static Var Compensators (SVCs), Static Var Generators (SVGs), Wind Turbine Generators (WTGs) and On......-Load Tap Changing (OLTC) Transformer, and they are coordinated to keep the voltages of all the buses within the feasible range. Moreover, the reactive power distribution is optimized throughout the wind farm in order to maximize the dynamic reactive power reserve. The sensitivity coefficients...... are calculated based on an analytical method to improve the computation efficiency and overcome the convergence problem. Two control modes are designed for both voltage violated and normal operation conditions. A wind farm with 20 wind turbines was used to conduct case studies to verify the proposed coordinated...

  1. Variation in wind speed and surface shear stress from open floor to porous parallel windbreaks: A wind tunnel study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, De-Xin; Zhong, Ye; Jin, Chang-Jie; Wang, An-Zhi; Wu, Jia-Bing; Shi, Ting-Ting; Zhu, Ting-Yao

    2009-08-01

    As vegetative windbreaks become established on a large scale in agricultural ecosystems, understanding the influence of windbreak networks on the momentum budget of the atmospheric boundary layer becomes important. The authors conducted a wind tunnel experiment to study the variation of wind speed profile and surface shear stress of wind flow passing from an open surface to another with parallel windbreaks. Five spacing (L = 5, 10, 15, 20, 30 h, wherein h is the windbreak height) windbreak arrays with moderate porosity (aerodynamic porosity α = 0.501) were used in the experiments. Both near-floor and over-array wind speed measurements showed that airflow will approach equilibrium state behind a special windbreak of the array, varying from 4th to 9th windbreak when the spacing change from 30 to 5 h. Within the range of L/h values investigated, arrays with narrower spacing cause higher friction velocity and roughness length, which were up to 2.26 and nearly 100 times those observed over open floor, respectively. A semiempirical momentum budget model is developed on the arrayed surface to estimate windbreak drag and shear stress on the protected floor. Windbreak drag accounts for more than 80% of shear stress on the arrayed surface, and the shear stress on protected floor is less than 20% when L/h < 40 based on the model estimation. The sum of the two estimated components agrees well with the estimates obtained from over-array wind profiles.

  2. Anisotropic Solar Wind Sputtering of the Lunar Surface Induced by Crustal Magnetic Anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppe, A. R.; Sarantos, M.; Halekas, J. S.; Delory, G. T.; Saito, Y.; Nishino, M.

    2014-01-01

    The lunar exosphere is generated by several processes each of which generates neutral distributions with different spatial and temporal variability. Solar wind sputtering of the lunar surface is a major process for many regolith-derived species and typically generates neutral distributions with a cosine dependence on solar zenith angle. Complicating this picture are remanent crustal magnetic anomalies on the lunar surface, which decelerate and partially reflect the solar wind before it strikes the surface. We use Kaguya maps of solar wind reflection efficiencies, Lunar Prospector maps of crustal field strengths, and published neutral sputtering yields to calculate anisotropic solar wind sputtering maps. We feed these maps to a Monte Carlo neutral exospheric model to explore three-dimensional exospheric anisotropies and find that significant anisotropies should be present in the neutral exosphere depending on selenographic location and solar wind conditions. Better understanding of solar wind/crustal anomaly interactions could potentially improve our results.

  3. Wave glider observations of surface winds and currents in the core of Typhoon Danas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitarai, S.; McWilliams, J. C.

    2016-11-01

    Simultaneous monitoring of surface winds and currents is essential to understand oceanic responses to tropical cyclones. We used a new platform, a Wave Glider (Liquid Robotics) to observe air-sea processes during a typhoon, equivalent to a category 4-hurricane, at peak strength, near Okinawa, Japan. Surface winds showed strong asymmetry in both speed and direction, faster fore than aft. Rotations of surface winds and currents were not coupled; currents rotated clockwise in the wake of the typhoon eye after passage of rapid wind rotations. Wind work was mostly done ahead of the eye, amplifying prior inertial motions with a phase shift. Wind-induced energy was nearly balanced with an increase in estimated kinetic energy of the upper ocean current, relative to prior inertial oscillations. This study provides a newer, more complete view of actual atmosphere-ocean interactions in a typhoon.

  4. The emission and scattering of L-band microwave radiation from rough ocean surfaces and wind speed measurements from the Aquarius sensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meissner, Thomas; Wentz, Frank J.; Ricciardulli, Lucrezia

    2014-09-01

    In order to achieve the required accuracy in sea surface salinity (SSS) measurements from L-band radiometers such as the Aquarius/SAC-D or SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) mission, it is crucial to accurately correct the radiation that is emitted from the ocean surface for roughness effects. We derive a geophysical model function (GMF) for the emission and backscatter of L-band microwave radiation from rough ocean surfaces. The analysis is based on radiometer brightness temperature and scatterometer backscatter observations both taken on board Aquarius. The data are temporally and spatially collocated with wind speeds from WindSat and F17 SSMIS (Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder) and wind directions from NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) GDAS (Global Data Assimilation System). This GMF is the basis for retrieval of ocean surface wind speed combining L-band H-pol radiometer and HH-pol scatterometer observations. The accuracy of theses combined passive/active L-band wind speeds matches those of many other satellite microwave sensors. The L-band GMF together with the combined passive/active L-band wind speeds is utilized in the Aquarius SSS retrieval algorithm for the surface roughness correction. We demonstrate that using these L-band wind speeds instead of NCEP wind speeds leads to a significant improvement in the SSS accuracy. Further improvements in the roughness correction algorithm can be obtained by adding VV-pol scatterometer measurements and wave height (WH) data into the GMF.

  5. Three dimensional numerical prediction of icing related power and energy losses on a wind turbine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagol, Ece

    Regions of Canada experience harsh winter conditions that may persist for several months. Consequently, wind turbines located in these regions are exposed to ice accretion and its adverse effects, from loss of power to ceasing to function altogether. Since the weather-related annual energy production loss of a turbine may be as high as 16% of the nominal production for Canada, estimating these losses before the construction of a wind farm is essential for investors. A literature survey shows that most icing prediction methods and codes are developed for aircraft, and, as this information is mostly considered corporate intellectual property, it is not accessible to researchers in other domains. Moreover, aircraft icing is quite different from wind turbine icing. Wind turbines are exposed to icing conditions for much longer periods than aircraft, perhaps for several days in a harsh climate, whereas the maximum length of exposure of an aircraft is about 3-4 hours. In addition, wind turbine blades operate at subsonic speeds, at lower Reynolds numbers than aircraft, and their physical characteristics are different. A few icing codes have been developed for wind turbine icing nevertheless. However, they are either in 2D, which does not consider the 3D characteristics of the flow field, or they focus on simulating each rotation in a time-dependent manner, which is not practical for computing long hours of ice accretion. Our objective in this thesis is to develop a 3D numerical methodology to predict rime ice shape and the power loss of a wind turbine as a function of wind farm icing conditions. In addition, we compute the Annual Energy Production of a sample turbine under both clean and icing conditions. The sample turbine we have selected is the NREL Phase VI experimental wind turbine installed on a wind farm in Sweden, the icing events at which have been recorded and published. The proposed method is based on computing and validating the clean performance of the turbine

  6. A predictive control framework for optimal energy extraction of wind farms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vali, M.; van Wingerden, J. W.; Boersma, S.; Petrović, V.; Kühn, M.

    2016-09-01

    This paper proposes an adjoint-based model predictive control for optimal energy extraction of wind farms. It employs the axial induction factor of wind turbines to influence their aerodynamic interactions through the wake. The performance index is defined here as the total power production of the wind farm over a finite prediction horizon. A medium-fidelity wind farm model is utilized to predict the inflow propagation in advance. The adjoint method is employed to solve the formulated optimization problem in a cost effective way and the first part of the optimal solution is implemented over the control horizon. This procedure is repeated at the next controller sample time providing the feedback into the optimization. The effectiveness and some key features of the proposed approach are studied for a two turbine test case through simulations.

  7. Towards the modelling of pedestrian wind speed using high-resolution digital surface models and statistical methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Lars; Onomura, Shiho; Lindberg, Fredrik; Seaquist, Jonathan

    2016-04-01

    Wind is a complex phenomenon and a critical factor in assessing climatic conditions and pedestrian comfort within cities. To obtain spatial information on near-ground wind speed, 3D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling is often used. This is a computationally intensive method which requires extensive computer resources and is time consuming. By using a simpler 2D method, larger areas can be processed and less time is required. This study attempts to model the relationship between near-ground wind speed and urban geometry using 2.5D raster data and variable selection methods. Such models can be implemented in a geographic information system (GIS) to assess the spatial distribution of wind speed at street level in complex urban environments at scales from neighbourhood to city. Wind speed data, 2 m above ground, is obtained from simulations by CFD modelling and used as a response variable. A number of derivatives calculated from high-resolution digital surface models (DSM) are used as potential predictors. A sequential variable selection algorithm followed by all-possible subset regression was used to select candidate models for further evaluation. The results show that the selected models explain general spatial wind speed pattern characteristics but the prediction errors are large, especially so in areas with high wind speeds. However, all selected models did explain 90 % of the wind speed variability (R 2 ≈ 0.90). Predictors adding information on width and height ratio and alignment of street canyons with respect to wind direction are suggested for improving model performance. To assess the applicability of any derived model, the results of the CFD model should be thoroughly evaluated against field measurements.

  8. Two Machine Learning Approaches for Short-Term Wind Speed Time-Series Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ak, Ronay; Fink, Olga; Zio, Enrico

    2016-08-01

    The increasing liberalization of European electricity markets, the growing proportion of intermittent renewable energy being fed into the energy grids, and also new challenges in the patterns of energy consumption (such as electric mobility) require flexible and intelligent power grids capable of providing efficient, reliable, economical, and sustainable energy production and distribution. From the supplier side, particularly, the integration of renewable energy sources (e.g., wind and solar) into the grid imposes an engineering and economic challenge because of the limited ability to control and dispatch these energy sources due to their intermittent characteristics. Time-series prediction of wind speed for wind power production is a particularly important and challenging task, wherein prediction intervals (PIs) are preferable results of the prediction, rather than point estimates, because they provide information on the confidence in the prediction. In this paper, two different machine learning approaches to assess PIs of time-series predictions are considered and compared: 1) multilayer perceptron neural networks trained with a multiobjective genetic algorithm and 2) extreme learning machines combined with the nearest neighbors approach. The proposed approaches are applied for short-term wind speed prediction from a real data set of hourly wind speed measurements for the region of Regina in Saskatchewan, Canada. Both approaches demonstrate good prediction precision and provide complementary advantages with respect to different evaluation criteria.

  9. Forced synchronization of large-scale circulation to increase predictability of surface states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Mao-Lin; Keenlyside, Noel; Selten, Frank; Wiegerinck, Wim; Duane, Gregory

    2016-04-01

    Numerical models are key tools in the projection of the future climate change. The lack of perfect initial condition and perfect knowledge of the laws of physics, as well as inherent chaotic behavior limit predictions. Conceptually, the atmospheric variables can be decomposed into a predictable component (signal) and an unpredictable component (noise). In ensemble prediction the anomaly of ensemble mean is regarded as the signal and the ensemble spread the noise. Naturally the prediction skill will be higher if the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is larger in the initial conditions. We run two ensemble experiments in order to explore a way to reduce the SNR of surface winds and temperature. One ensemble experiment is AGCM with prescribing sea surface temperature (SST); the other is AGCM with both prescribing SST and nudging the high-level temperature and winds to ERA-Interim. Each ensemble has 30 members. Larger SNR is expected and found over the tropical ocean in the first experiment because the tropical circulation is associated with the convection and the associated surface wind convergence as these are to a large extent driven by the SST. However, small SNR is found over high latitude ocean and land surface due to the chaotic and non-synchronized atmosphere states. In the second experiment the higher level temperature and winds are forced to be synchronized (nudged to reanalysis) and hence a larger SNR of surface winds and temperature is expected. Furthermore, different nudging coefficients are also tested in order to understand the limitation of both synchronization of large-scale circulation and the surface states. These experiments will be useful for the developing strategies to synchronize the 3-D states of atmospheric models that can be later used to build a super model.

  10. Interannual variations of surface winds over China marginal seas

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Che; YAN Xiaomei

    2012-01-01

    In a study of surface monsoon winds over the China marginal seas,Sun et al.(2012) use singular value decomposition method to identify regional dominant modes and analyze their interdecadal variability.This paper continues to evaluate the interannual variability of each dominant mode and its relation to various atmospheric,oceanic and land factors.The findings include:1) The intensity of the winter monsoon over the East China Sea is highly correlated with the Siberian High intensity and anti-correlated with the latitudinal position of the Aleutian Low as well as the rainfall in eastem China,Korean Peninsula and Japan; 2) The western Pacific subtropical high is significantly correlated with the summer monsoon intensity over the East China Sea and anti-correlated with the summer monsoon over the South China Sea; 3) The winter monsoon in a broad zonal belt through the Luzon Strait is dominated by the ENSO signal,strengthening in the La Ni(n)a phase and weakening in the El Ni(n)o phase.This inverse relation exhibits interdecadal shift with a period of weak correlation in the 1980s; 4) Analysis of tidal records validates the interdecadal weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon and reveals an atmospheric bridge that conveys the ENSO signal into the South China Sea via the winter monsoon.

  11. Development of a Convection Risk Index to forecast severe weather, and application to predict maximum wind speeds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhuiyan, M. A. E.; Wanik, D. W.; Scerbo, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.

    2015-12-01

    We have developed a tool, the Convection Risk Index (CRI), to represent the severity, timing and location of convection for select geographic areas. The CRI is calculated from the Convection Risk Matrix (CRM), a tabulation of numerous meteorological parameters which are categorized into four broad factors that contribute to convection (surface and lower level moisture, atmospheric instability, vertical wind shear, and lift); each of these factors have historically been utilized by meteorologists to predict the likelihood for development of thunderstorms. The CRM ascribes a specific threshold value to each parameter in such a way that it creates a unique tool used to calculate the risk for seeing the development of thunderstorms. The parameters were combined using a weighted formula and which when calculated, yields the Convection Risk Index 1 to 4 scale, with 4 being the highest risk for seeing strong convection. In addition, we also evaluated the performance of the parameters in the CRM and CRI for predicting the maximum wind speed in areas where we calculated the CRI using nonparametric tree-based model, Bayesian additive trees (BART). The use of the CRI and the predicted wind speeds from BART can be used to better inform emergency preparedness efforts in government and industry.We have developed a tool, the Convection Risk Index (CRI), to represent the severity, timing and location of convection for select geographic areas. The CRI is calculated from the Convection Risk Matrix (CRM), a tabulation of numerous meteorological parameters which are categorized into four broad factors that contribute to convection (surface and lower level moisture, atmospheric instability, vertical wind shear, and lift); each of these factors have historically been utilized by meteorologists to predict the likelihood for development of thunderstorms. The CRM ascribes a specific threshold value to each parameter in such a way that it creates a unique tool used to calculate the risk for

  12. Prediction of extreme wind velocity at the site of the Runyang Suspension Bridge

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yang DENG; You-liang DING; Ai-qun LI; Guang-dong ZHOU

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a distribution free method for predicting the extreme wind velocity from wind monitoring data at the site of the Runyang Suspension Bridge (RSB),China using the maximum entropy theory.The maximum entropy theory is a rational approach for choosing the most unbiased probability distribution from a small sample,which is consistent with available data and contains a minimum of spurious information.In this paper,the theory is used for estimating a joint probability density function considering the combined action of wind speed and direction based on statistical analysis of wind monitoring data at the site of the RSB.The joint probability distribution model is further used to estimate the extreme wind velocity at the deck level of the RSB.The results of the analysis reveal that the probability density function of the maximum entropy method achieves a result that fits well with the monitoring data.Hypothesis testing shows that the distributions of the wind velocity data collected during the past three years do not obey the Gumbel distribution.Finally,our comparison shows that the wind predictions of the maximum entropy method are higher than that of the Gumbel distribution,but much lower than the design wind speed.

  13. Soil erosion rates from mixed soil and gravel surfaces in a wind tunnel: A preliminary report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ligotke, M.W.

    1988-12-01

    Tests of wind erosion were performed in a controlled-environment wind tunnel to support the development of natural-material protective barriers for long-term isolation of radioactive waste. Barrier performance standards currently being developed for internal and external barrier performance are expected to mandate a surface layer that is resistant to wind erosion. The purpose of this study was to initiate a series of tests to determine suitable soil and gravel mixtures for such a barrier and to test worst-case surface layer conditions under the influence of high wind speeds. Six mixed soil and gravel surfaces were prepared, weathered to represent natural wind-blown desert areas, and subjected to controlled wind erosion forces in a wind tunnel. The applied erosive forces, including surface shear forces, were characterized to provide a means of relating wind tunnel results with actual field conditions. Soil particle losses from the surfaces caused by suspension, saltation, and surface creep were monitored by aerosol sample probes and mass balance measurements. 23 refs., 22 figs., 3 tabs.

  14. The use of real-time off-site observations as a methodology for increasing forecast skill in prediction of large wind power ramps one or more hours ahead of their impact on a wind plant.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin Wilde, Principal Investigator

    2012-12-31

    ABSTRACT Application of Real-Time Offsite Measurements in Improved Short-Term Wind Ramp Prediction Skill Improved forecasting performance immediately preceding wind ramp events is of preeminent concern to most wind energy companies, system operators, and balancing authorities. The value of near real-time hub height-level wind data and more general meteorological measurements to short-term wind power forecasting is well understood. For some sites, access to onsite measured wind data - even historical - can reduce forecast error in the short-range to medium-range horizons by as much as 50%. Unfortunately, valuable free-stream wind measurements at tall tower are not typically available at most wind plants, thereby forcing wind forecasters to rely upon wind measurements below hub height and/or turbine nacelle anemometry. Free-stream measurements can be appropriately scaled to hub-height levels, using existing empirically-derived relationships that account for surface roughness and turbulence. But there is large uncertainty in these relationships for a given time of day and state of the boundary layer. Alternatively, forecasts can rely entirely on turbine anemometry measurements, though such measurements are themselves subject to wake effects that are not stationary. The void in free-stream hub-height level measurements of wind can be filled by remote sensing (e.g., sodar, lidar, and radar). However, the expense of such equipment may not be sustainable. There is a growing market for traditional anemometry on tall tower networks, maintained by third parties to the forecasting process (i.e., independent of forecasters and the forecast users). This study examines the value of offsite tall-tower data from the WINDataNOW Technology network for short-horizon wind power predictions at a wind farm in northern Montana. The presentation shall describe successful physical and statistical techniques for its application and the practicality of its application in an operational

  15. Survey on effect of surface winds on aircraft design and operation and recommendations for needed wind research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houbolt, J. C.

    1973-01-01

    A survey of the effect of environmental surface winds and gusts on aircraft design and operation is presented. A listing of the very large number of problems that are encountered is given. Attention is called to the many studies that have been made on surface winds and gusts, but development in the engineering application of these results to aeronautical problems is pointed out to be still in the embryonic stage. Control of the aircraft is of paramount concern. Mathematical models and their application in simulation studies of airplane operation and control are discussed, and an attempt is made to identify their main gaps or deficiencies. Key reference material is cited. The need for better exchange between the meteorologist and the aeronautical engineer is discussed. Suggestions for improvements in the wind and gust models are made.

  16. Multimodel Modeling and Predictive Control for Direct-Drive Wind Turbine with Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The safety and reliability of the wind turbines wholly depend on the completeness and reliability of the control system which is an important problem for the validity of the wind energy conversion systems (WECSs. A method based on multimodel modeling and predictive control is proposed for the optimal operation of direct-drive wind turbine with permanent magnet synchronous generator in this paper. In this strategy, wind turbine with direct-drive permanent magnet synchronous generator is modeled and a backpropagation artificial neural network is designed to estimate the wind speed loaded into the turbine model in real time through the estimated turbine shaft speed and mechanical power. The nonlinear wind turbine system is presented by multiple linear models. The desired trajectory of the nonlinear system is decomposed to be suitable for the reference trajectory of multiple models that are presented by the linear models of the nonlinear system, which simplifies the nonlinear optimization problems and decreases the calculation difficulty. Then a multivariable control strategy based on model predictive control techniques for the control of variable-speed variable-pitch wind turbines is proposed. Finally, simulation results are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed strategy, and the conclusion that multiple model predictive controller (MMPC has better control performance than the PI control method is obtained.

  17. Verification of the Prediction Accuracy of Annual Energy Output at Noma Wind Park by the Non-Stationary and Non-Linear Wind Synopsis Simulator, RIAM-COMPACT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uchida, Takanori; Ohya, Yuji

    In the present study, the hub-height wind speed ratios for 16 individual wind directional groups were estimated by the RIAM-COMPACT for Noma Wind Park, Kagoshima Prefecture. The validity of the proposed estimation technique for the actual wind was examined. For this procedure, field observational data from the one year period between April, 2004 and March, 2005 were studied. In this case, the relative error on the prediction accuracy was less than 10% and less than 5% for the monthly and annual average wind speeds, respectively. Similar to the results for the annual average wind speed, the difference in the selected reference points (Wind Turbines #4 and #6) had little difference in the relative error on the prediction accuracy of the annual energy output. For both reference points, the relative error was within 10%.

  18. Predicted Impacts of Proton Temperature Anisotropy on Solar Wind Turbulence

    CERN Document Server

    Klein, Kristopher G

    2015-01-01

    Particle velocity distributions measured in the weakly collisional solar wind are frequently found to be non-Maxwellian, but how these non-Maxwellian distributions impact the physics of plasma turbulence in the solar wind remains unanswered. Using numerical solutions of the linear dispersion relation for a collisionless plasma with a bi-Maxwellian proton velocity distribution, we present a unified framework for the four proton temperature anisotropy instabilities, identifying the associated stable eigenmodes, highlighting the unstable region of wavevector space, and presenting the properties of the growing eigenfunctions. Based on physical intuition gained from this framework, we address how the proton temperature anisotropy impacts the nonlinear dynamics of the \\Alfvenic fluctuations underlying the dominant cascade of energy from large to small scales and how the fluctuations driven by proton temperature anisotropy instabilities interact nonlinearly with each other and with the fluctuations of the large-scal...

  19. Pulsatory characteristics of wind velocity in sand flow over typical underlying surfaces

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Pulsatory characteristics of wind velocity in sand flow over Gobi and mobile sand surface have been investigated experimentally in the wind tunnel. The primary goal of this paper is to reveal the relation- ship between pulsatory characteristics of instantaneous wind speed in sand flow and the motion state of sand grains. For a given underlying surface, pulsation of wind velocities in sand flow on different heights has a good correlation. As the space distance among different heights increases, fluctuation of instantaneous wind speed presents a decreasing trend and its amplitude is closely related to the mo- tion state of sand grains and their transport. Pulsatory intensity increases with the indicated wind speed, but its relative value does not depend on it, only agrees with height.

  20. Space-time extreme wind waves: Analysis and prediction of shape and height

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvise, Benetazzo; Francesco, Barbariol; Filippo, Bergamasco; Sandro, Carniel; Mauro, Sclavo

    2017-05-01

    In this study, we present the analysis of the temporal profile and height of space-time (ST) extreme wind waves. Wave data were gathered from an observational ST sample of sea surface elevations collected during an active sea state, and they were examined to detect the highest waves (exceeding the rogue wave threshold) of specific 3D wave groups close to the apex of their development. Two different investigations are conducted. Firstly, local maximum elevations of the groups are examined within the framework of statistical models for ST extreme waves, and compared with observations and predictions of maxima derived by one-point time series of sea surface elevations. Secondly, the temporal profile near the maximum wave crests is analyzed and compared with the expectations of the linear and second-order nonlinear extension of the Quasi-Determinism (QD) theory. Our goal is to verify, with real sea data, to what extent, one can estimate the shape and the crest-to-trough height of near-focusing large 3D wave groups using the QD and ST extreme model results. From this study, it emerges that the elevations close to the crest apex are narrowly distributed around a mean profile, whilst a larger dispersion is observed away from the maximum elevation. Yet the QD model furnishes, on average, a fair prediction of the maximum wave heights, especially when nonlinearities are taken into account. Moreover, we discuss how the combination of ST extreme and QD model predictions allows establishing, for a given sea condition, the portrait of waves with very large crest height. Our results show that these theories have the potential to be implemented in a numerical spectral model for wave extreme prediction.

  1. THE IMPACT OF INITIAL FORCED WIND ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF THE ZEBIAK-CANE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YUE Cai-jun; LU Wei-song; LI Qing-quan

    2006-01-01

    With simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), the difference between NCEP/NCAR 925hPa reanalysis wind stress anomaly (NCEPWSA) and FSU wind stress anomaly (FSUWSA) is analyzed, and the prediction abilities of Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model (ZC coupled model) with NCEPWSA and FSUWSA serving respectively as initialization wind are compared. The results are as follows.The distribution feature of NCEPWSA matches better with that of the observed SSTA than counterpart of FSUWSA both in 1980s and in 1990s; The ZC ocean model has a better skill under the forcing of NCEPWSA than that of FSUWSA, especially in 1990s. Meanwhile, the forecast abilities of the ZC coupled model in 1990s as well as in 1980s have been improved employing NCEPWSA as initialization wind instead of FSUWSA.Particularly, it succeeded in predicting 1997/1998 El Ni(n)o 6 to 8 months ahead; further analysis shows that on the antecedent and onset stages of the 1997/1998 El Ni(n)o event, the horizontal cold and warm distribution characteristics of the simulated SSTA from ZC ocean model, with NCEPWSA forcing compared to FSUWSA forcing, match better with counterparts of the corresponding observed SSTA, whereby providing better predication initialization conditions for ZC coupled model, which, in turn, is favorable to improve the forecast ability of the coupled model.

  2. Combined Active and Reactive Power Control of Wind Farms based on Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei; Wang, Jianhui;

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a combined wind farm controller based on Model Predictive Control (MPC). Compared with the conventional decoupled active and reactive power control, the proposed control scheme considers the significant impact of active power on voltage variations due to the low X=R ratio...... of wind farm collector systems. The voltage control is improved. Besides, by coordination of active and reactive power, the Var capacity is optimized to prevent potential failures due to Var shortage, especially when the wind farm operates close to its full load. An analytical method is used to calculate...... the sensitivity coefficients to improve the computation efficiency and overcome the convergence problem. Two control modes are designed for both normal and emergency conditions. A wind farm with 20 wind turbines was used to verify the proposed combined control scheme....

  3. Short-Term Wind Power Prediction and Comprehensive Evaluation based on Multiple Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhaowei Wang

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Firstly, this study used prediction methods, including Kalman filter method, the GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model and the BP neural network model based on time sequence, to predict real-timely the wind power. And then, we construct indexes such as mean absolute error, root-mean-square error, accuracy rate and percent of pass to have error analysis on the predictive effect and get the best results of prediction effect that based on time sequence of the BP neural network model. Finally, we concluded the universal rule between the relative prediction error of single typhoon electric unit power of and the prediction relative error of total machine power by the analysis into lateral error indicators. And we analyze the influence on the error of the prediction result that resulting from the converge of wind generator power.

  4. Gain-Scheduled Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines using Laguerre Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adegas, Fabiano Daher; Wisniewski, Rafal; Larsen, Lars Finn Sloth

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a systematic approach to design gain-scheduled predictive controllers for wind turbines. The predictive control law is based on Laguerre functions to parameterize control signals and a parameter-dependent cost function that is analytically determined from turbine data. These p...

  5. The Wind, Temperature, and Surface Pressure on Pluto from a Pluto General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalucha, A. M.; Gulbis, A.

    2011-12-01

    A variety of methods have been used to derive Pluto's atmospheric temperature, composition, and surface pressure from spectra and stellar occultation data, while wind is less easily determined. Gravity wave dissipation has been investigated [1] in the 18 March 2007 stellar occultation dataset [2], demonstrating that wind is occurring in the form of perturbations about a mean. Rossby waves have also been proposed [2] as an explanation to the 2007 dataset; however the method was used incorrectly. General circulation models (GCMs) are a ubiquitous tool in the field of planetary atmospheres to solve for the global state of the atmosphere in a physically consistent manner, but only recently have they began to be developed for Pluto. We use a Pluto version of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) GCM to solve for the first time for wind, temperature, and surface pressure globally in Pluto's atmosphere. The Pluto version of the MIT GCM (PGCM) uses the MIT GCM dynamical core [3] with a radiative-conductive model [4]. It includes vertical thermal conduction and non-local thermodynamic equilibrium heating and cooling by methane at 3.3 um and 7.6 um, respectively. We perform a parameter sweep with methane volume mixing ratios of 0.2, 0.6, and 1% and initial global mean surface pressures of 6-26 ubar. We ran the model from rest starting in the model year 1973. We compared the PGCM results with occultation data from the years 1988, 2002, 2006, and 2007. Model light curves were calculated from the PGCM temperature output (averaged at 90 day intervals) at the corresponding date and Pluto latitudes of each occultation. The match between data and PGCM is better than between data and the radiative-conductive equilibrium solution (i.e. no wind), but the PGCM light curves contain wave-like features while the data do not. We do not believe that this feature represents an atmospheric wave; rather, it is numerical noise known to occur in 2D GCMs. The PGCM-predicted zonal

  6. A Method for Sea Surface Wind Field Retrieval from SAR Image Mode Data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHAO Weizeng; SUN Jian; GUAN Changlong; SUN Zhanfeng

    2014-01-01

    To retrieve wind field from SAR images, the development for surface wind field retrieval from SAR images based on the improvement of new inversion model is present. Geophysical Model Functions (GMFs) have been widely applied for wind field retrieval from SAR images. Among them CMOD4 has a good performance under low and moderate wind conditions. Although CMOD5 is developed recently with a more fundamental basis, it has ambiguity of wind speed and a shape gradient of normalized radar cross section under low wind speed condition. This study proposes a method of wind field retrieval from SAR image by com-bining CMOD5 and CMOD4 Five VV-polarisation RADARSAT2 SAR images are implemented for validation and the retrieval re-sults by a combination method (CMOD5 and CMOD4) together with CMOD4 GMF are compared with QuikSCAT wind data. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) of wind speed is 0.75 m s-1 with correlation coefficient 0.84 using the combination method and the RMSE of wind speed is 1.01 m s-1 with correlation coefficient 0.72 using CMOD4 GMF alone for those cases. The proposed method can be applied to SAR image for avoiding the internal defect in CMOD5 under low wind speed condition.

  7. Nonlinear Predictive Control of Wind Energy Conversion System Using Dfig with Aerodynamic Torque Observer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamel, Ouari; Mohand, Ouhrouche; Toufik, Rekioua; Taib, Nabil

    2015-01-01

    In order to improvement of the performances for wind energy conversions systems (WECS), an advanced control techniques must be used. In this paper, as an alternative to conventional PI-type control methods, a nonlinear predictive control (NPC) approach is developed for DFIG-based wind turbine. To enhance the robustness of the controller, a disturbance observer is designed to estimate the aerodynamic torque which is considered as an unknown perturbation. An explicitly analytical form of the optimal predictive controller is given consequently on-line optimization is not necessary The DFIG is fed through the rotor windings by a back-to-back converter controlled by Pulse Width Modulation (PWM), where the stator winding is directly connected to the grid. The presented simulation results show a good performance in trajectory tracking of the proposed strategy and rejection of disturbances is successfully achieved.

  8. Removing the impact of wind direction on remote sensing of sea surface salinity

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YIN Xiaobin; LIU Yuguang; ZHANG Hande

    2006-01-01

    Using the small-slope approximation model of microwave emission of rough sea surface, the impacts of sea surface wind on brightness temperature variations generated by the surface roughness, i.e. △Th,v, are investigated. Here △T denotes the brightness temperature variation, and "h" and "v" denote the horizontal and vertical polarizations respectively. △Th,v has a linear relation with wind speed, sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) respectively. Further more, the impact of wind direction on SSS retrieval, under small incidence angles, can be removed by calculating (△Th+△Tv). These characteristics provide simple new ways to develop an SSS retrieval algorithm without wind direction factor.

  9. A New Global Regression Analysis Method for the Prediction of Wind Tunnel Model Weight Corrections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulbrich, Norbert Manfred; Bridge, Thomas M.; Amaya, Max A.

    2014-01-01

    A new global regression analysis method is discussed that predicts wind tunnel model weight corrections for strain-gage balance loads during a wind tunnel test. The method determines corrections by combining "wind-on" model attitude measurements with least squares estimates of the model weight and center of gravity coordinates that are obtained from "wind-off" data points. The method treats the least squares fit of the model weight separate from the fit of the center of gravity coordinates. Therefore, it performs two fits of "wind- off" data points and uses the least squares estimator of the model weight as an input for the fit of the center of gravity coordinates. Explicit equations for the least squares estimators of the weight and center of gravity coordinates are derived that simplify the implementation of the method in the data system software of a wind tunnel. In addition, recommendations for sets of "wind-off" data points are made that take typical model support system constraints into account. Explicit equations of the confidence intervals on the model weight and center of gravity coordinates and two different error analyses of the model weight prediction are also discussed in the appendices of the paper.

  10. Wind fields of storms from surface isobars for wave hindcasting

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Varkey, M.J.; Vaithiyanathan, R.; Santanam, K.

    Marine operations of various types are critically linked to mean and extreme wave statistics. In the Indian seas extreme wave conditions are caused by cyclones and steady strong monsoon winds. Wave data from cyclone areas are not directly available...

  11. Surface deformations and wave generation by wind blowing over a viscous liquid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paquier, A.; Moisy, F.; Rabaud, M.

    2015-12-01

    We investigate experimentally the early stage of the generation of waves by a turbulent wind at the surface of a viscous liquid. The spatio-temporal structure of the surface deformation is analyzed by the optical method Free Surface Synthetic Schlieren, which allows for time-resolved measurements with a micrometric accuracy. Because of the high viscosity of the liquid, the flow induced by the turbulent wind in the liquid remains laminar, with weak surface drift velocity. Two regimes of deformation of the liquid-air interface are identified. In the first regime, at low wind speed, the surface is dominated by rapidly propagating disorganized wrinkles, elongated in the streamwise direction, which correspond to the surface response to the pressure fluctuations advected by the turbulent airflow. The amplitude of these deformations increases approximately linearly with wind velocity and are essentially independent of the fetch (distance along the channel). Above a threshold in wind speed, we observe the growth of well defined gravity-capillary waves with crests nearly perpendicular to the wind direction. In this second regime, the wave amplitude increases with wind speed but far more quickly than in the first regime.

  12. Surface Fluxes and Wind-Wave Interactions in Weak Wind Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-07

    science /abl/cblast LONG-TERM GOALS We will investigate air-sea transfer of momentum, heat, and moisture under weak wind conditions. We will...over the ASIT tower and the wind direction was good for the tower sonic performance (6 days in total). As we found last year that although the momentum...flux derived from the aircraft is flight- direction dependent, which was recently found to be a common problem for all aircraft flux measurements

  13. Changes in Surface Wind Speed over North America from CMIP5 Model Projections and Implications for Wind Energy

    OpenAIRE

    Sujay Kulkarni; Huei-Ping Huang

    2014-01-01

    The centennial trends in the surface wind speed over North America are deduced from global climate model simulations in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive. Using the 21st century simulations under the RCP 8.5 scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, 5–10 percent increases per century in the 10 m wind speed are found over Central and East-Central United States, the Californian Coast, and the South and East Coasts of the USA in winter. In summer, climate models proje...

  14. Predictive control of a chaotic permanent magnet synchronous generator in a wind turbine system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manal, Messadi; Adel, Mellit; Karim, Kemih; Malek, Ghanes

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates how to address the chaos problem in a permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) in a wind turbine system. Predictive control approach is proposed to suppress chaotic behavior and make operating stable; the advantage of this method is that it can only be applied to one state of the wind turbine system. The use of the genetic algorithms to estimate the optimal parameter values of the wind turbine leads to maximization of the power generation. Moreover, some simulation results are included to visualize the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method. Project supported by the CMEP-TASSILI Project (Grant No. 14MDU920).

  15. Assessing Long-Term Wind Conditions by Combining Different Measure-Correlate-Predict Algorithms: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, J.; Chowdhury, S.; Messac, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-08-01

    This paper significantly advances the hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology, enabling it to account for variations of both wind speed and direction. The advanced hybrid MCP method uses the recorded data of multiple reference stations to estimate the long-term wind condition at a target wind plant site. The results show that the accuracy of the hybrid MCP method is highly sensitive to the combination of the individual MCP algorithms and reference stations. It was also found that the best combination of MCP algorithms varies based on the length of the correlation period.

  16. Causes of bat fatalities at wind turbines: Hypotheses and predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cryan, P.M.; Barclay, R.M.R.

    2009-01-01

    Thousands of industrial-scale wind turbines are being built across the world each year to meet the growing demand for sustainable energy. Bats of certain species are dying at wind turbines in unprecedented numbers. Species of bats consistently affected by turbines tend to be those that rely on trees as roosts and most migrate long distances. Although considerable progress has been made in recent years toward better understanding the problem, the causes of bat fatalities at turbines remain unclear. In this synthesis, we review hypothesized causes of bat fatalities at turbines. Hypotheses of cause fall into 2 general categoriesproximate and ultimate. Proximate causes explain the direct means by which bats die at turbines and include collision with towers and rotating blades, and barotrauma. Ultimate causes explain why bats come close to turbines and include 3 general types: random collisions, coincidental collisions, and collisions that result from attraction of bats to turbines. The random collision hypothesis posits that interactions between bats and turbines are random events and that fatalities are representative of the bats present at a site. Coincidental hypotheses posit that certain aspects of bat distribution or behavior put them at risk of collision and include aggregation during migration and seasonal increases in flight activity associated with feeding or mating. A surprising number of attraction hypotheses suggest that bats might be attracted to turbines out of curiosity, misperception, or as potential feeding, roosting, flocking, and mating opportunities. Identifying, prioritizing, and testing hypothesized causes of bat collisions with wind turbines are vital steps toward developing practical solutions to the problem. ?? 2009 American Society of Mammalogists.

  17. Bayesian state prediction of wind turbine bearing failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herp, Jürgen; Ramezani, Mohammad Hossein; Bach-Andersen, Martin

    2017-01-01

    A statistical approach to abstract and predict turbine states in an online manner has been developed. Online inference is performed on temperature measurement residuals to predict the failure state Δn steps ahead of time. In this framework a case study is performed showing the ability to predict...... bearing failure 33 days, on average, ahead of time. The approach is based on the separability of the sufficient statistics and a hidden variable, namely the state length. The predictive probability is conditioned on the data available, as well as the state variables. It is shown that the predictive...... probability can be calculated by a model for the samples and a hazard function describing the probability for undergoing a state transition. This study is concerned with the prior training of the model, for which run-to-failure time series of bearing measurements are used. For the sample model prediction...

  18. Bayesian state prediction of wind turbine bearing failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herp, Jürgen; Ramezani, Mohammad H.; Bach-Andersen, Martin

    2017-01-01

    A statistical approach to abstract and predict turbine states in an online manner has been developed. Online inference is performed on temperature measurement residuals to predict the failure state δn steps ahead of time. In this framework a case study is performed showing the ability to predict...... bearing failure 33 days, on average, ahead of time. The approach is based on the separability of the sufficient statistics and a hidden variable, namely the state length. The predictive probability is conditioned on the data available, as well as the state variables. It is shown that the predictive...... probability can be calculated by a model for the samples and a hazard function describing the probability for undergoing a state transition. This study is concerned with the prior training of the model, for which run-to-failure time series of bearing measurements are used. For the sample model prediction...

  19. Annual and interannual variability of scatterometer ocean surface wind over the South China Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, GS; Xu, Q.; Gong, Z.

    2014-01-01

    To investigate the annual and interannual variability of ocean surface wind over the South China Sea (SCS), the vector empirical orthogonal function (VEOF) method and the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) method were employed to analyze a set of combined satellite scatterometer wind data during...

  20. Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER) Users Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    used for fixed-site generators). PoWER is hosted on Apple iOS and Android (mobile device operating systems) based smartphones and tablets (referred...henceforth referred to as the “ app ”) provides information on the instantaneous electrical power and energy that can be generated by a wind generator...to from here on as the “device”). The functionality is identical between the iOS and Android device and the screen displays are similar between the 2

  1. Field study and numerical modeling of wind and surface waves at the middle-sized water body

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baydakov, Georgy; Kuznetsova, Alexandra; Sergeev, Daniil; Papko, Vladislav; Kandaurov, Alexander; Vdovin, Maxim; Troitskaya, Yuliya

    2015-04-01

    This paper presents the results of field experiments on studying the wind and waves over inland waters, which were carried out at the Gorky Reservoir in 2011-2014. The sensors were positioned at the oceanographic Froude buoy including five two-component ultrasonic sensors WindSonic by Gill Instruments at different levels (0.1, 0.85, 1.3, 2.27, 5.26 meters above the mean water surface level), one water and three air temperature sensors, and three-channel wire wave gauge. From the measured profiles of wind speed, we calculated basic parameters of the atmospheric boundary layer: the friction velocity u*, the wind speed at the standard height of 10 m U10 and the drag coefficient CD. Parameters were obtained in the range of wind speeds of 1-10 m/s. For wind speeds stronger than 3 m/s CD values were lower than those obtained before (see eg. [1,2]) and those predicted by the bulk parameterization. In the range of wind speeds of 3-5 m/s CD values are even lower than the corresponding smooth flow. However, for weak winds (less than 2.5 m/s) CD values considerably higher than expected ones. The main peculiarity of our measurements is very low location of the lowest sensor: 0.1 m against 0.89 m in [1] and 0.5 m in [2]. Moreover, the lowest sensor was not fixed on the mast, but was located on the float and followed the water surface. Analysis shows that the obtained parameters of profile are almost independent on the number of approximated wind speed levels if they include the lowest sensor. But excluding the lowest sensor gave larger values of CD similar to [1] and [2]. These results demonstrate importance of wind speed measuring close to the water surface. The new parameterization of surface drag coefficient was proposed on the basis of the obtained data. The new surface drag parameterization was used in WAVEWATCH III model applied for modeling waves at the reservoir. 1-D spectra of the field experiment were compared with those obtained in the numerical experiments with

  2. Statistical Seasonal Sea Surface based Prediction Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez, Roberto; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Diouf, Ibrahima

    2014-05-01

    The interannual variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) plays a key role in the strongly seasonal rainfall regime on the West African region. The predictability of the seasonal cycle of rainfall is a field widely discussed by the scientific community, with results that fail to be satisfactory due to the difficulty of dynamical models to reproduce the behavior of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). To tackle this problem, a statistical model based on oceanic predictors has been developed at the Universidad Complutense of Madrid (UCM) with the aim to complement and enhance the predictability of the West African Monsoon (WAM) as an alternative to the coupled models. The model, called S4CAST (SST-based Statistical Seasonal Forecast) is based on discriminant analysis techniques, specifically the Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). Beyond the application of the model to the prediciton of rainfall in West Africa, its use extends to a range of different oceanic, atmospheric and helth related parameters influenced by the temperature of the sea surface as a defining factor of variability.

  3. Quantifying the Effect of Lidar Turbulence Error on Wind Power Prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Newman, Jennifer F.; Clifton, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Currently, cup anemometers on meteorological towers are used to measure wind speeds and turbulence intensity to make decisions about wind turbine class and site suitability; however, as modern turbine hub heights increase and wind energy expands to complex and remote sites, it becomes more difficult and costly to install meteorological towers at potential sites. As a result, remote-sensing devices (e.g., lidars) are now commonly used by wind farm managers and researchers to estimate the flow field at heights spanned by a turbine. Although lidars can accurately estimate mean wind speeds and wind directions, there is still a large amount of uncertainty surrounding the measurement of turbulence using these devices. Errors in lidar turbulence estimates are caused by a variety of factors, including instrument noise, volume averaging, and variance contamination, in which the magnitude of these factors is highly dependent on measurement height and atmospheric stability. As turbulence has a large impact on wind power production, errors in turbulence measurements will translate into errors in wind power prediction. The impact of using lidars rather than cup anemometers for wind power prediction must be understood if lidars are to be considered a viable alternative to cup anemometers.In this poster, the sensitivity of power prediction error to typical lidar turbulence measurement errors is assessed. Turbulence estimates from a vertically profiling WINDCUBE v2 lidar are compared to high-resolution sonic anemometer measurements at field sites in Oklahoma and Colorado to determine the degree of lidar turbulence error that can be expected under different atmospheric conditions. These errors are then incorporated into a power prediction model to estimate the sensitivity of power prediction error to turbulence measurement error. Power prediction models, including the standard binning method and a random forest method, were developed using data from the aeroelastic simulator FAST

  4. Probability distribution of surface wind speed induced by convective adjustment on Venus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Masaru

    2017-03-01

    The influence of convective adjustment on the spatial structure of Venusian surface wind and probability distribution of its wind speed is investigated using an idealized weather research and forecasting model. When the initially uniform wind is much weaker than the convective wind, patches of both prograde and retrograde winds with scales of a few kilometers are formed during active convective adjustment. After the active convective adjustment, because the small-scale convective cells and their related vertical momentum fluxes dissipate quickly, the large-scale (>4 km) prograde and retrograde wind patches remain on the surface and in the longitude-height cross-section. This suggests the coexistence of local prograde and retrograde flows, which may correspond to those observed by Pioneer Venus below 10 km altitude. The probability distributions of surface wind speed V during the convective adjustment have a similar form in different simulations, with a sharp peak around ∼0.1 m s-1 and a bulge developing on the flank of the probability distribution. This flank bulge is associated with the most active convection, which has a probability distribution with a peak at the wind speed 1.5-times greater than the Weibull fitting parameter c during the convective adjustment. The Weibull distribution P(> V) (= exp[-(V/c)k]) with best-estimate coefficients of Lorenz (2016) is reproduced during convective adjustments induced by a potential energy of ∼7 × 107 J m-2, which is calculated from the difference in total potential energy between initially unstable and neutral states. The maximum vertical convective heat flux magnitude is proportional to the potential energy of the convective adjustment in the experiments with the initial unstable-layer thickness altered. The present work suggests that convective adjustment is a promising process for producing the wind structure with occasionally generating surface winds of ∼1 m s-1 and retrograde wind patches.

  5. Predicted impacts of proton temperature anisotropy on solar wind turbulence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klein, K. G., E-mail: kristopher.klein@unh.edu [Space Science Center, University of New Hampshire, Durham, New Hampshire 03824 (United States); Howes, G. G. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa 52242 (United States)

    2015-03-15

    Particle velocity distributions measured in the weakly collisional solar wind are frequently found to be non-Maxwellian, but how these non-Maxwellian distributions impact the physics of plasma turbulence in the solar wind remains unanswered. Using numerical solutions of the linear dispersion relation for a collisionless plasma with a bi-Maxwellian proton velocity distribution, we present a unified framework for the four proton temperature anisotropy instabilities, identifying the associated stable eigenmodes, highlighting the unstable region of wavevector space and presenting the properties of the growing eigenfunctions. Based on physical intuition gained from this framework, we address how the proton temperature anisotropy impacts the nonlinear dynamics of the Alfvénic fluctuations underlying the dominant cascade of energy from large to small scales and how the fluctuations driven by proton temperature anisotropy instabilities interact nonlinearly with each other and with the fluctuations of the large-scale cascade. We find that the nonlinear dynamics of the large-scale cascade is insensitive to the proton temperature anisotropy and that the instability-driven fluctuations are unlikely to cause significant nonlinear evolution of either the instability-driven fluctuations or the turbulent fluctuations of the large-scale cascade.

  6. Predicted impacts of proton temperature anisotropy on solar wind turbulence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, K. G.; Howes, G. G.

    2015-03-01

    Particle velocity distributions measured in the weakly collisional solar wind are frequently found to be non-Maxwellian, but how these non-Maxwellian distributions impact the physics of plasma turbulence in the solar wind remains unanswered. Using numerical solutions of the linear dispersion relation for a collisionless plasma with a bi-Maxwellian proton velocity distribution, we present a unified framework for the four proton temperature anisotropy instabilities, identifying the associated stable eigenmodes, highlighting the unstable region of wavevector space and presenting the properties of the growing eigenfunctions. Based on physical intuition gained from this framework, we address how the proton temperature anisotropy impacts the nonlinear dynamics of the Alfvénic fluctuations underlying the dominant cascade of energy from large to small scales and how the fluctuations driven by proton temperature anisotropy instabilities interact nonlinearly with each other and with the fluctuations of the large-scale cascade. We find that the nonlinear dynamics of the large-scale cascade is insensitive to the proton temperature anisotropy and that the instability-driven fluctuations are unlikely to cause significant nonlinear evolution of either the instability-driven fluctuations or the turbulent fluctuations of the large-scale cascade.

  7. Anomalous Arctic surface wind patterns and their impacts on September sea ice minima and trend

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bingyi Wu

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available We used monthly mean surface wind data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Centers for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset during the period 1979–2010 to describe the first two patterns of Arctic surface wind variability by means of the complex vector empirical orthogonal function (CVEOF analysis. The first two patterns respectively account for 31 and 16% of its total anomalous kinetic energy. The leading pattern consists of the two subpatterns: the northern Laptev Sea (NLS pattern and the Arctic dipole (AD pattern. The second pattern contains the northern Kara Sea (NKS pattern and the central Arctic (CA pattern. Over the past two decades, the combined dynamical forcing of the first two patterns has contributed to Arctic September sea ice extent (SIE minima and its declining trend. September SIE minima are mainly associated with the negative phase of the AD pattern and the positive phase of the CA pattern during the summer (July to September season, and both phases coherently show an anomalous anticyclone over the Arctic Ocean. Wind patterns affect September SIE through their frequency and intensity. The negative trend in September SIE over the past two decades is associated with increased frequency and enhanced intensity of the CA pattern during the melting season from April to September. Thus, it cannot be simply attributed to the AD anomaly characterised by the second empirical orthogonal function mode of sea level pressure north of 70°N. The CA pattern exhibited interdecadal variability in the late 1990s, and an anomalous cyclone prevailed before 1997 and was then replaced by an anomalous anticyclone over the Arctic Ocean that is consistent with the rapid decline trend in September SIE. This paper provides an alternative way to identify the dominant patterns of climate variability and investigate their associated Arctic sea ice variability from a dynamical perspective. Indeed, this study

  8. Cauchy-Matern Model of Sea Surface Wind Speed at the Lake Worth, Florida

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Li

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the Cauchy-Matern (CM process with long-range dependence (LRD. The closed form of its power spectrum density (PSD function is given. We apply it to model the autocovariance function (ACF and the PSD of the sea surface wind speed (wind speed for short observed in the Lake Worth, Florida, over the 1984–2006 period. The present results exhibit that the wind speed at the Lake Worth over 1984–2006 is of LRD. The present results exhibit that the CM process may yet be a novel model to fit the wind speed there.

  9. The effects of the accuracy of the atmospheric forcings on the prediction of the sea surface transport in coastal areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucco, Andrea; Quattrocchi, Giovanni; Satta, Andrea; Antognarelli, Fabio; della Valle, Antonio; De Biasio, Francesco; Cadau, Enrico; Zecchetto, Stefano; Umgiesser, Georg

    2015-04-01

    In the framework of the Italian flagship project RITMARE (http://www.ritmare.it/en/) an Operational Oceanography Systems (OOS hereafter) based on high resolution 3D hydrodynamic model has been developed for the Oristano Gulf (Sardinia, Italy), with the aim of making short term predictions of water currents and pollutant transport. Atmospheric data provided by the SKIRON meteorological model system (http://forecast.uoa.gr/) were used to make the predictions. In order to asses the quality of the wind field adopted to force the hydrodynamic model, a coastal wind measuring system (WMS hereafter) was developed. The WMS is composed by five three-components anemometers located along the Gulf coasts, which provide hourly and operationally wind measurements. These data are then used operationally to derive high resolution wind fields over the entire Gulf and surrounding coastal areas. The modelled wind data have been compared with the measured ones and the meteorological model accuracy estimated. A set of lagrangian buoys were deployed within the Gulf to measure the sea surface transport due to the main local wind regimes. The OOS were used to reproduce the paths followed by each lagrangian buoy using as forcing conditions both the wind fields measured by the local WMS and the predicted ones. Therefore the effects of the atmospheric forcing quality on predicting the surface hydrodynamics at coastal scale were determined.

  10. A physical approach of the short-term wind power prediction based on CFD pre-calculated flow fields

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Li; LIU Yong-qian; YANG Yong-ping; HAN Shuang; WANG Yi-mei

    2013-01-01

    A physical approach of the wind power prediction based on the CFD pre-calculated flow fields is proposed in this paper.The flow fields are obtained based on a steady CFD model with the discrete inflow wind conditions as the boundary conditions,and a database is established containing the important parameters including the inflow wind conditions,the flow fields and the corresponding wind power for each wind turbine.The power is predicted via the database by taking the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)wind as the input data.In order to evaluate the approach,the short-term wind power prediction for an actual wind farm is conducted as an example during the period of the year 2010.Compared with the measured power,the predicted results enjoy a high accuracy with the annual Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 15.2% and the annual MAE of 10.80%.A good performance is shown in predicting the wind power's changing trend.This approach is independent of the historical data and can be widely used for all kinds of wind farms including the newly-built wind farms.At the same time,it does not take much computation time while it captures the local air flows more precisely by the CFD model.So it is especially practical for engineering projects.

  11. Spectral Properties of ENVISAT ASAR and QuikSCAT Surface Winds in the North Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karagali, Ioanna; Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Badger, Merete

    2013-01-01

    Spectra derived from ENVISAT Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) and QuikSCAT near-surface ocean winds are investigated over the North Sea. The two sensors offer a wide range of spatial resolutions, from 600 m to 25 km, with different spatial coverage over the area of interest. This provides...... a unique opportunity to study the impact of the spatial resolution on the spectral properties of the wind over a wide range of length scales. Initially, a sub-domain in the North Sea is chosen, due to the overlap of 87 wind scenes from both sensors. The impact of the spatial resolution is manifested...... or lower. The lower power levels of coarser resolution wind products, particularly when comparing QuikSCAT to ENVISAT ASAR, strongly suggest that the effective resolution of the wind products should be high enough to resolve the spectral properties. Spectra computed from 87 wind maps are consistent...

  12. Applications of SMAP data to retrieval of ocean surface wind and salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yueh, Simon; Fore, Alexander; Tang, Wenqing; Hayashi, Akiko; Stiles, Bryan; Zhang, Fuqing; Weng, Yonghui; Real, Nicolas

    2016-10-01

    We have examined the L-band radiometer and radar data from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission for ocean research and applications. We find that the SMAP data are in excellent agreement with the geophysical model function (GMF) derived from the Aquarius data up to a wind speed of 20 ms-1. For severe wind conditions, the higher resolution data from SMAP allowed us to assess the sensitivity of L-band radiometer signals to hurricane force winds. We applied the L-band GMF to the retrieval of ocean surface wind and SSS from the SMAP data. Comparison with the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, WindSat and RapidSCAT wind speeds suggests that SMAP's radiometer wind speed reaches an excellent accuracy of about 1.1-1.7 ms-1 below a wind speed of 20 ms-1. We have also found that the maximum wind speed derived from the SMAP radiometer data can reach 140 knots for severe storms and are generally in good agreement with the hurricane track analysis and operational aircraft Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer wind speeds. The spatial patterns of the SMAP SSS agree well with climatological distributions, but exhibit several unique spatial and temporal features.

  13. nowCOAST's Map Service for NOAA NWS NDFD Gridded Forecasts of Surface Wind Gust (knots)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Map Information: This nowCOAST time-offsets map service provides maps depicting the NWS surface wind gust forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database...

  14. Effect of phase coupling on surface amplitude distribution of wind waves

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Varkey, M.J.

    Nonlinear features of wind generated surface waves are considered here to be caused by nonrandomness (non-Uniform) in the phase spectrum. Nonrandomness in recorded waves, if present, would be generally obscured within the error level of observations...

  15. Aero-acoustic noise of wind turbines. Noise prediction models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maribo Pedersen, B. [ed.

    1997-12-31

    Semi-empirical and CAA (Computational AeroAcoustics) noise prediction techniques are the subject of this expert meeting. The meeting presents and discusses models and methods. The meeting may provide answers to the following questions: What Noise sources are the most important? How are the sources best modeled? What needs to be done to do better predictions? Does it boil down to correct prediction of the unsteady aerodynamics around the rotor? Or is the difficult part to convert the aerodynamics into acoustics? (LN)

  16. Revised Predictions of Neutrino Fluxes from Pulsar Wind Nebulae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Palma, Irene; Guetta, Dafne; Amato, Elena

    2017-02-01

    Several pulsar wind nebulae (PWN) have been detected in the TeV band in the last decade. TeV emission is typically interpreted in a purely leptonic scenario, but this often requires that the magnetic field in the nebula be much lower than the equipartition value, as well as the assumption of an enhanced density of target radiation at IR frequencies. In this work, we consider the possibility that, in addition to the relativistic electrons and positrons, relativistic hadrons are also present in these nebulae. Assuming that some of the emitted TeV photons are of hadronic origin, we compute the associated flux of ∼ 1{--}100 TeV neutrinos. We use IceCube non-detection to put constraints on the fraction of TeV photons that might be contributed by hadrons and estimate the number of neutrino events that can be expected from these sources in ANTARES and KM3Net.

  17. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon [Mokpo National University, Muan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  18. Doppler lidar investigation of wind turbine wake characteristics and atmospheric turbulence under different surface roughness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Xiaochun; Wu, Songhua; Liu, Bingyi

    2017-06-12

    Four field experiments based on Pulsed Coherent Doppler Lidar with different surface roughness have been carried out in 2013-2015 to study the turbulent wind field in the vicinity of operating wind turbine in the onshore and offshore wind parks. The turbulence characteristics in ambient atmosphere and wake area was analyzed using transverse structure function based on Plane Position Indicator scanning mode. An automatic wake processing procedure was developed to determine the wake velocity deficit by considering the effect of ambient velocity disturbance and wake meandering with the mean wind direction. It is found that the turbine wake obviously enhances the atmospheric turbulence mixing, and the difference in the correlation of turbulence parameters under different surface roughness is significant. The dependence of wake parameters including the wake velocity deficit and wake length on wind velocity and turbulence intensity are analyzed and compared with other studies, which validates the empirical model and simulation of a turbine wake for various atmosphere conditions.

  19. Comparison among four kinds of data of sea surface wind stress in the South China Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谢强; 王卫强; 毛庆文

    2002-01-01

    By using remote sensing (ERS) data, FSU data, GOADS data and Hellerman & Rcsenstein objective analysis data to analyze the sea surface wind stress in the South China Sea, it is found that the remote sensing data have higher resolution and more reasonable values. Therefore we suggest that remote sensing data be chosen in the study of climatological features of sea surface wind stress and its seasonal variability in the South China Sea, especially in the study of small and middle scale eddies.

  20. Wind gust estimation by combining numerical weather prediction model and statistical post-processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patlakas, Platon; Drakaki, Eleni; Galanis, George; Spyrou, Christos; Kallos, George

    2017-04-01

    The continuous rise of off-shore and near-shore activities as well as the development of structures, such as wind farms and various offshore platforms, requires the employment of state-of-the-art risk assessment techniques. Such analysis is used to set the safety standards and can be characterized as a climatologically oriented approach. Nevertheless, a reliable operational support is also needed in order to minimize cost drawbacks and human danger during the construction and the functioning stage as well as during maintenance activities. One of the most important parameters for this kind of analysis is the wind speed intensity and variability. A critical measure associated with this variability is the presence and magnitude of wind gusts as estimated in the reference level of 10m. The latter can be attributed to different processes that vary among boundary-layer turbulence, convection activities, mountain waves and wake phenomena. The purpose of this work is the development of a wind gust forecasting methodology combining a Numerical Weather Prediction model and a dynamical statistical tool based on Kalman filtering. To this end, the parameterization of Wind Gust Estimate method was implemented to function within the framework of the atmospheric model SKIRON/Dust. The new modeling tool combines the atmospheric model with a statistical local adaptation methodology based on Kalman filters. This has been tested over the offshore west coastline of the United States. The main purpose is to provide a useful tool for wind analysis and prediction and applications related to offshore wind energy (power prediction, operation and maintenance). The results have been evaluated by using observational data from the NOAA's buoy network. As it was found, the predicted output shows a good behavior that is further improved after the local adjustment post-process.

  1. Standardizing the performance evaluation of short-term wind prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, G.;

    2005-01-01

    evaluation of model performance. This paper proposes a standardized protocol for the evaluation of short-term wind-poser preciction systems. A number of reference prediction models are also described, and their use for performance comparison is analysed. The use of the protocol is demonstrated using results...... from both on-shore and off-shore wind forms. The work was developed in the frame of the Anemos project (EU R&D project) where the protocol has been used to evaluate more than 10 prediction systems....

  2. Quantifying the impact of sub-grid surface wind variability on sea salt and dust emissions in CAM5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kai; Zhao, Chun; Wan, Hui; Qian, Yun; Easter, Richard C.; Ghan, Steven J.; Sakaguchi, Koichi; Liu, Xiaohong

    2016-02-01

    This paper evaluates the impact of sub-grid variability of surface wind on sea salt and dust emissions in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). The basic strategy is to calculate emission fluxes multiple times, using different wind speed samples of a Weibull probability distribution derived from model-predicted grid-box mean quantities. In order to derive the Weibull distribution, the sub-grid standard deviation of surface wind speed is estimated by taking into account four mechanisms: turbulence under neutral and stable conditions, dry convective eddies, moist convective eddies over the ocean, and air motions induced by mesoscale systems and fine-scale topography over land. The contributions of turbulence and dry convective eddy are parameterized using schemes from the literature. Wind variabilities caused by moist convective eddies and fine-scale topography are estimated using empirical relationships derived from an operational weather analysis data set at 15 km resolution. The estimated sub-grid standard deviations of surface wind speed agree well with reference results derived from 1 year of global weather analysis at 15 km resolution and from two regional model simulations with 3 km grid spacing.The wind-distribution-based emission calculations are implemented in CAM5. In terms of computational cost, the increase in total simulation time turns out to be less than 3 %. Simulations at 2° resolution indicate that sub-grid wind variability has relatively small impacts (about 7 % increase) on the global annual mean emission of sea salt aerosols, but considerable influence on the emission of dust. Among the considered mechanisms, dry convective eddies and mesoscale flows associated with topography are major causes of dust emission enhancement. With all the four mechanisms included and without additional adjustment of uncertain parameters in the model, the simulated global and annual mean dust emission increase by about 50 % compared to the default model

  3. Full-field dynamic strain prediction on a wind turbine using displacements of optical targets measured by stereophotogrammetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baqersad, Javad; Niezrecki, Christopher; Avitabile, Peter

    2015-10-01

    Health monitoring of rotating structures (e.g. wind turbines and helicopter blades) has historically been a challenge due to sensing and data transmission problems. Unfortunately mechanical failure in many structures initiates at components on or inside the structure where there is no sensor located to predict the failure. In this paper, a wind turbine was mounted with a semi-built-in configuration and was excited using a mechanical shaker. A series of optical targets was distributed along the blades and the fixture and the displacement of those targets during excitation was measured using a pair of high speed cameras. Measured displacements with three dimensional point tracking were transformed to all finite element degrees of freedom using a modal expansion algorithm. The expanded displacements were applied to the finite element model to predict the full-field dynamic strain on the surface of the structure as well as within the interior points. To validate the methodology of dynamic strain prediction, the predicted strain was compared to measured strain by using six mounted strain-gages. To verify if a simpler model of the turbine can be used for the expansion, the expansion process was performed both by using the modes of the entire turbine and modes of a single cantilever blade. The results indicate that the expansion approach can accurately predict the strain throughout the turbine blades from displacements measured by using stereophotogrammetry.

  4. Report on the use of stability parameters and mesoscale modelling in short-term prediction[Wind speed at wind farm sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Badger, J.; Giebel, G.; Guo Larsen, X.; Skov Nielsen, T.; Aalborg Nielsen, H.; Madsen, Henrik; Toefting, J.

    2007-06-15

    In this report investigations using atmospheric stability measures to improve wind speed predictions at wind farm sites are described. Various stability measures have been calculated based on numerical weather prediction model output. Their ability to improve the wind speed predictions is assessed at three locations. One of the locations is in complex terrain. Mesoscale modelling has been carried out using KAMM at this location. The characteristics of the measured winds are captured well by the mesoscale modelling. It can be seen that the atmospheric stability plays an important role in determining how the flow is influence by the terrain. A prediction system employing a look-up table approach based on wind class simulations is presented. The mesoscale modelling results produced by KAMM were validated using an alternative mesoscale model called WRF. A good agreement in the results of KAMM and WRF was found. It is shown that including a stability parameter in physical and/or statistical modelling can improve the wind speed predictions at a wind farm site. A concept for the inclusion of a stability measure in the WPPT prediction system is presented, and the testing of the concept is outlined. (au)

  5. Influence of persistent wind scour on the surface mass balance of Antarctica

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Das, I.; Bell, R.E.; Lenaerts, J.T.M.; Broeke, M.R. van den

    2013-01-01

    Accurate quantification of surface snow accumulation over Antarctica is a key constraint for estimates of the Antarctic mass balance, as well as climatic interpretations of ice-core records1,2. Over Antarctica, near-surface winds accelerate down relatively steep surface slopes, eroding and sublimati

  6. Prediction of wind speed time series using modified Taylor Kriging method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Heping; Shi, Jing; Erdem, Ergin [Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, North Dakota State University, Dept 2485, PO Box 6050, Fargo, ND 58108 (United States)

    2010-12-15

    Wind speed forecasting is critical for the operations of wind turbine and penetration of wind energy into electricity systems. In this paper, a novel time series forecasting method is proposed for this purpose. This method originates from TK (Taylor Kriging) model, but is properly modified for the forecasting of wind speed time series. To investigate the performance of this new method, the wind speed data from an observation site in North Dakota, USA, are adopted. One-year hourly wind speed data are divided into 10 samples, and forecast is made for each sample. In the case study, both the modified TK method and (ARIMA) autoregressive integrated moving average method are employed and their performances are compared. It is found that on average, the proposed method outperforms the ARIMA method by 18.60% and 15.23% in terms of (MAE) mean absolute error and (RMSE) root mean square error. Meanwhile, further theoretical analysis is provided to discuss why the modified TK method is potentially more accurate than the ARIMA method for wind speed time series prediction. (author)

  7. Impact of assimilating met-tower, turbine nacelle anemometer and other intensified wind farm observation systems on 0 - 12h wind energy prediction using the NCAR WRF-RTFDDA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y.; Cheng, W.; Liu, Y. W.; Wiener, G.; Frehlich, R.; Mahoney, W.; Warner, T.; Himelic, J.; Parks, K.; Early, S.

    2010-09-01

    In collaboration with Xcel Energy and Vasaila Inc., the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) conducts modeling study to evaluate the existing and the enhanced intensive observation systems for wind power nowcasting and short-range forecasting at a northern Colorado wind farm. The NCAR WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model) based Real-Time Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (RTFDDA) and forecasting system, which has been employed to support Xcel Energy operational wind forecast, was used in this study. The observational data include ten met-towers, a 915Hz wind profiler, a sodar and a Windcube Doppler lidar, besides the in-farm met-towers and wind speed and power reports from more than 300 of wind turbines. The WRF-RTFDDA 4-dimensioanl data assimilation algorithm allows to spread and propagate observation information in the WRF model space (x, y, z and time) with weighting functions built according to the observation location and time. The WRF-RTFDDA was set up to run with four nested domains with grid increments of 30, 10, 3.333 and 1.111km respectively. The standard and diverse non-conventional observations are assimilated on coarse grid domains along with the special wind farm observations. In this study, we investigate a) spread of surface observations in PBL according to PBL depth and regimes, b) optimization of horizontal influence radii and steep-terrain adjustment, and c) impact of different observation platforms and data types on 0 - 12 h wind prediction . It is found that PBL mixing and thermodynamic structures are greatly influenced by the PBL parameterization formulation. The range of the data assimilation effect on forecasts relies on weather and PBL regimes. In most cases, assimilation of in-farm and near-farm observations improves up to 12-hour wind power prediction and assimilation of in-farm data can significantly improves 0 - 6 hour forecasts.

  8. Low-dimensionality and predictability of solar wind and global magnetosphere during magnetic storms

    CERN Document Server

    Zivkovic, Tatjana

    2011-01-01

    The storm index SYM-H, the solar wind velocity v, and interplanetary magnetic field Bz show no signatures of low-dimensional dynamics in quiet periods, but tests for determinism in the time series indicate that SYM-H exhibits a significant low-dimensional component during storm time, suggesting that self-organization takes place during magnetic storms. Even though our analysis yields no discernible change in determinism during magnetic storms for the solar wind parameters, there are significant enhancement of the predictability and exponents measuring persistence. Thus, magnetic storms are typically preceded by an increase in the persistence of the solar wind dynamics, and this increase is also present in the magnetospheric response to the solar wind.

  9. Energy Yield Prediction of Offshore Wind Farm Clusters at the EERA-DTOC European Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cantero, E.; Hasager, Charlotte Bay; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan

    2014-01-01

    third-party models. Wake models have been benchmarked on the Horns Rev and, currently, on the Lilgrund wind farm test cases. Dedicated experiments from ‘BARD Offshore 1’ wind farm will using scanning lidars will produce new data for the validation of wake models. Furthermore, the project includes power...... plant interconnection and energy yield models all interrelated with a simplified cost model for the evaluation of layout scenarios. The overall aim is to produce an efficient, easy to use and flexible tool - to facilitate the optimised design of individual and clusters of offshore wind farms......, the offshore wind resource assessment process has been reviewed as well as the sources of uncertainty associated to each step. Methodologies for the assessment of offshore gross annual energy production are analyzed based on the Fino 1 test case. Measured data and virtual data from Numerical Weather Prediction...

  10. Development of a wind energy climate service based on seasonal climate prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torralba, Veronica; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Cortesi, Nicola; Christel, Isadora; González-Reviriego, Nube; Turco, Marco; Soret, Albert

    2016-04-01

    Climate predictions tailored to the wind energy sector represent an innovation to better understand the future variability of wind energy resources. At seasonal time scales current energy practices employ a simple approach based on a retrospective climatology. Instead, probabilistic climate forecasting can better address specific decisions that affect energy demand and supply, as well as decisions relative to the planning of maintenance work. Here we illustrate the advantages that seasonal climate predictions might offer to a wide range of users and discuss the best way to provide them with this information. We use the predictions of 10-meter wind speed from the ECMWF seasonal forecast System 4 (S4). S4, as every operational seasonal forecast system, is affected by a range of biases. Hence, to produce usable climate information from the predictions, different bias-adjustment techniques and downscaling methods should be applied, their choice depending on the user requirements. An ensemble of post-processing methods is described, and their relative merit evaluated as a function of their impact of the characteristics of the forecast error and the usability of the resulting forecasts. Both reanalyses (ERA-Interim, JRA-55, MERRA) and in-situ observations are used as observational references. As an illustration of the downstream impact of the forecasts as a source of climate information, the post-processed seasonal predictions of wind speed will be used as input in a transfer model that translates climate information into generated power at different spatial scales.

  11. An Intelligent Ensemble Neural Network Model for Wind Speed Prediction in Renewable Energy Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganayaki, V; Deepa, S N

    2016-01-01

    Various criteria are proposed to select the number of hidden neurons in artificial neural network (ANN) models and based on the criterion evolved an intelligent ensemble neural network model is proposed to predict wind speed in renewable energy applications. The intelligent ensemble neural model based wind speed forecasting is designed by averaging the forecasted values from multiple neural network models which includes multilayer perceptron (MLP), multilayer adaptive linear neuron (Madaline), back propagation neural network (BPN), and probabilistic neural network (PNN) so as to obtain better accuracy in wind speed prediction with minimum error. The random selection of hidden neurons numbers in artificial neural network results in overfitting or underfitting problem. This paper aims to avoid the occurrence of overfitting and underfitting problems. The selection of number of hidden neurons is done in this paper employing 102 criteria; these evolved criteria are verified by the computed various error values. The proposed criteria for fixing hidden neurons are validated employing the convergence theorem. The proposed intelligent ensemble neural model is applied for wind speed prediction application considering the real time wind data collected from the nearby locations. The obtained simulation results substantiate that the proposed ensemble model reduces the error value to minimum and enhances the accuracy. The computed results prove the effectiveness of the proposed ensemble neural network (ENN) model with respect to the considered error factors in comparison with that of the earlier models available in the literature.

  12. North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and surface wind in the Northeast of the Iberian Peninsula: uncertainty and long term downscaled variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Bustamante, E.; Jimenez, P.A. [CIEMAT, Departamento de Energias Renovables, Madrid (Spain); Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departamento de Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera, Madrid (Spain); Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departamento de Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera, Madrid (Spain); Navarro, J. [CIEMAT, Departamento de Energias Renovables, Madrid (Spain); Xoplaki, E. [University of Bern, Institute of Geography and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern (Switzerland); Montavez, J.P. [Universidad de Murcia, Departamento de Fisica, Murcia (Spain)

    2012-01-15

    The variability and predictability of the surface wind field at the regional scale is explored over a complex terrain region in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula by means of a downscaling technique based on Canonical Correlation Analysis. More than a decade of observations (1992-2005) allows for calibrating and validating a statistical method that elicits the main associations between the large scale atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean areas and the regional wind field. In an initial step the downscaling model is designed by selecting parameter values from practise. To a large extent, the variability of the wind at monthly timescales is found to be governed by the large scale circulation modulated by the particular orographic features of the area. The sensitivity of the downscaling methodology to the selection of the model parameter values is explored, in a second step, by performing a systematic sampling of the parameters space, avoiding a heuristic selection. This provides a metric for the uncertainty associated with the various possible model configurations. The uncertainties associated with the model configuration are considerably dependent on the spatial variability of the wind. While the sampling of the parameters space in the model set up moderately impact estimations during the calibration period, the regional wind variability is very sensitive to the parameters selection at longer timescales. This fact illustrates that downscaling exercises based on a single configuration of parameters should be interpreted with extreme caution. The downscaling model is used to extend the estimations several centuries to the past using long datasets of sea level pressure, thereby illustrating the large temporal variability of the regional wind field from interannual to multicentennial timescales. The analysis does not evidence long term trends throughout the twentieth century, however anomalous episodes of high/low wind speeds are identified

  13. Multisensor satellite data integration for sea surface wind speed and direction determination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glackin, D. L.; Pihos, G. G.; Wheelock, S. L.

    1984-01-01

    Techniques to integrate meteorological data from various satellite sensors to yield a global measure of sea surface wind speed and direction for input to the Navy's operational weather forecast models were investigated. The sensors were launched or will be launched, specifically the GOES visible and infrared imaging sensor, the Nimbus-7 SMMR, and the DMSP SSM/I instrument. An algorithm for the extrapolation to the sea surface of wind directions as derived from successive GOES cloud images was developed. This wind veering algorithm is relatively simple, accounts for the major physical variables, and seems to represent the best solution that can be found with existing data. An algorithm for the interpolation of the scattered observed data to a common geographical grid was implemented. The algorithm is based on a combination of inverse distance weighting and trend surface fitting, and is suited to combing wind data from disparate sources.

  14. Characteristics of surface wind structure of tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    M Mohapatra; Monica Sharma

    2015-10-01

    Tropical cyclone (TC) wind field monitoring and forecast are important for mariners, ships on sea and modelling group for creation of synthetic vortex, and storm surge and coastal inundation forecasting. Among others, a multi-platform satellite surface wind analysis developed by Co-operative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), USA for the TCs are referred by India Meteorological Department for surface wind field monitoring of TC. Hence, a study has been undertaken to analyze the characteristics of surface wind distribution and hence the structure of TC based on the real time data available from CIRA during 2007–2013. The study includes 19 TCs over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and six over Arabian Sea (AS). The maximum radial extent of winds reaching threshold values of 34(17), 50(26) and 64(33) knot (ms−1) in each of the four geographical quadrants has been segregated with respect to season of formation, basin of formation and intensity of TC for analysis. The objective is to develop a reference surface wind structure of TC and examine its validity with respect to physical processes. The size of outer core (34(17) knot (ms−1) wind radial extension) as well as inner core (50(26) and 64(33) knot (ms−1) wind radial extension) increases significantly with increase in intensification of TC over BOB during both pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons and over AS during pre-monsoon season. The outer core of winds in TCs over the BOB is asymmetric in both pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons and for all categories of intensity of TCs. On the other hand, the asymmetry in inner core winds is significantly less. There is also no asymmetry in radial wind extension over the AS during both the seasons, except in case of outer core wind radial extension of VSCS during pre-monsoon season. The low level environment like enhanced cross equatorial flow, lower/middle level relative humidity, vertical wind shear and proximity of TC to the land surface are the determining

  15. Wind influence on surface current variability in the Ibiza Channel from HF Radar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lana, Arancha; Marmain, Julien; Fernández, Vicente; Tintoré, Joaquin; Orfila, Alejandro

    2016-04-01

    Surface current variability is investigated using 2.5 years of continuous velocity measurements from an high frequency radar (HFR) located in the Ibiza Channel (Western Mediterranean Sea). The Ibiza Channel is identified as a key geographical feature for the exchange of water masses but still poorly documented. Operational, quality controlled, HFR derived velocities are provided by the Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System (SOCIB). They are assessed by performing statistical comparisons with current-meter, ADCP, and surface lagrangian drifters. HFR system does not show significant bias, and its accuracy is in accordance with previous studies performed in other areas. The main surface circulation patterns are deduced from an EOF analysis. The first three modes represent almost 70 % of the total variability. A cross-correlation analysis between zonal and meridional wind components and the temporal amplitudes of the first three modes reveal that the first two modes are mainly driven by local winds, with immediate effects of wind forcing and veering following Ekman effect. The first mode (37 % of total variability) is the response of meridional wind while the second mode (24 % of total variability) is linked primarily with zonal winds. The third and higher order modes are related to mesoscale circulation features. HFR derived surface transport presents a markedly seasonal variability being mostly southwards. Its comparison with Ekman-induced transport shows that wind contribution to the total surface transport is on average around 65 %.

  16. Predictive Control of Wind Turbine for Load Reduction during Ramping Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Weipeng; Li, Changgang; Liu, Yutian

    2017-01-01

    With increasing penetration of wind power, the impact of its intermittence and volatility on power systems becomes more severe. A predictive control strategy for wind turbines (WTs) is proposed to deal with wind power ramping events and reduce WT load on the blades. The blade load model is based...... on the Blade Element Momentum (BEM) theory. The generator speed and pitch angle are simultaneously regulated to realize the control objectives. A two-stage optimization is designed in order to reduce the computational complexity. The objectives of the first stage are minimizing the ramping rate and maximizing...... the power generation. A trade-off is made between the two contradictory objectives by setting weight coefficients. The second stage reduces the WT load and meanwhile guarantees the power reference from the first stage is tracked. Feedback is designed based on neural network prediction to compensate...

  17. Satellite SAR observation of the sea surface wind field caused by rain cells

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YE Xiaomin; LIN Mingsen; YUAN Xinzhe; DING Jing; XIE Xuetong; ZHANG Yi; XU Ying

    2016-01-01

    Rain cells or convective rain, the dominant form of rain in the tropics and subtropics, can be easy detected by satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images with high horizontal resolution. The footprints of rain cells on SAR images are caused by the scattering and attenuation of the rain drops, as well as the downward airflow. In this study, we extract sea surface wind field and its structure caused by rain cells by using a RADARSAT-2 SAR image with a spatial resolution of 100 m for case study. We extract the sea surface wind speeds from SAR image by using CMOD4 geophysical model function with outside wind directions of NCEP final operational global analysis data, Advance Scatterometer (ASCAT) onboard European MetOp-A satellite and microwave scatterometer onboard Chinese HY-2 satellite, respectively. The root-mean-square errors (RMSE) of these SAR wind speeds, validated against NCEP, ASCAT and HY-2, are 1.48 m/s, 1.64 m/s and 2.14 m/s, respectively. Circular signature patterns with brighter on one side and darker on the opposite side on SAR image are interpreted as the sea surface wind speed (or sea surface roughness) variety caused by downdraft associated with rain cells. The wind speeds taken from the transect profile which superposes to the wind ambient vectors and goes through the center of the circular footprint of rain cell can be fitted as a cosine or sine curve in high linear correlation with the values of no less than 0.80. The background wind speed, the wind speed caused by rain cell and the diameter of footprint of the rain cell with kilometers or tens of kilometers can be acquired by fitting curve. Eight cases interpreted and analyzed in this study all show the same conclusion.

  18. Numerical Simulation for Prediction of Wind Loads on Building Surfaces

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1997-01-01

    NumericalSimulationforPredictionofWindLoadsonBuildingSurfacesZhangXiaogangInstituteofAppliedMechanics,SouthwestJiaotongUniver...

  19. Wind turbine control and model predictive control for uncertain systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Sven Creutz

    as disturbance models for controller design. The theoretical study deals with Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC is an optimal control method which is characterized by the use of a receding prediction horizon. MPC has risen in popularity due to its inherent ability to systematically account for time......-domain constraints on signals. During the last decades several theoretical advances have been made, so that it can handle a wide variety of system structures. In this thesis, the focus is on handling uncertain linear system description. To this end the so-called Youla parameterizations have been used. Two methods...... are proposed: The first method exploits the modularity of the parameterizations so that the uncertainty can be identified and the MPC controller can be reconfigured in a modular setting. The second method is a robust MPC method in which the Youla parameters are used as an integral part of the online...

  20. Improved prediction of aerodynamic noise from wind turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guidati, G.; Bareiss, R.; Wagner, S. [Univ. of Stuttgart, Inst. of Aerodynamics and Gasdynamics, Stuttgart (Germany)

    1997-12-31

    This paper focuses on an improved prediction model for inflow-turbulence noise which takes the true airfoil shape into account. Predictions are compared to the results of acoustic measurements on three 2D-models of 0.25 m chord. Two of the models have NACA-636xx airfoils of 12% and 18% relative thickness. The third airfoil was acoustically optimized by using the new prediction model. In the experiments the turbulence intensity of the flow was strongly increased by mounting a grid with 60 mm wide meshes and 12 mm thick rods onto the tunnel exhaust nozzle. The sound radiated from the airfoil was distinguished by the tunnel background noise by using an acoustic antenna consisting of a cross array of 36 microphones in total. An application of a standard beam-forming algorithm allows to determine how much noise is radiated from different parts of the models. This procedure normally results in a peak at the leading and trailing edge of the airfoil. The strength of the leading-edge peak is taken as the source strength for inflow-turbulence noise. (LN) 14 refs.

  1. Wind flow modulation due to variations of the water surface roughness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shomina, Olga; Ermakov, Stanislav; Kapustin, Ivan; Lazareva, Tatiana

    2016-04-01

    Air-ocean interaction is a classical problem in atmosphere and ocean physics, which has important geophysical applications related to calculation of vertical and horizontal humidity, aerosol and gas fluxes, development of global climate models and weather forecasts. The structure of wind flow over fixed underlying surfaces, such as forestry, buildings, mountains, is well described, while the interaction between a rough water surface and turbulent wind is far more complicated because of the presence of wind waves with different wavelength and amplitudes and propagating with different velocities and directions. The aim of this study was to investigate experimentally the variability of the wind profile structure due to variations of wave characteristics. The surface roughness variations were produced using a) surfactant films (oleic acid) spread on the water surface and b) mechanically generated waves superimposed on wind waves. The first case is related to oil slicks on sea surface, the second one - to the sea swell, which propagates into zones with lower wind velocities and interacts with wind flow. Laboratory experiments were conducted in the Oval Wind Wave Tank (OWWT) at the Institute of Applied Physics, cross-section of the wind channel is 30 cm x30 cm. Wave amplitude and the spectrum of surface waves were measured by a wire wave gauge, the wind speed was measured using a hot-wire anemometer DISA and a Pitot tube. In the experiments with surfactants, two frequencies of dripping of the oleic acid were studied, so that low concentration films with the elasticity parameters of about 19 mN/m and the high concentration ("thick") films with the elasticity of 34 mN/m were formed. In the experiments with mechanically generated waves (MGW) different regimes were studied with MGW amplitude of 3.4 mm and of 4.4 mm, and with MGW frequencies of 3.3 Hz and 3.7 Hz. It was shown, that: a) the mean velocity of the wind flow in the presence of surfactant and MGW can be described

  2. Evaporation suppression from reservoirs using floating covers: Lab scale wind-tunnel observations and mechanistic model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Or, Dani; Lehmann, Peter; Aminzadeh, Milad; Sommer, Martina; Wey, Hannah; Krentscher, Christiane; Wunderli, Hans; Breitenstein, Daniel

    2017-04-01

    The competition over dwindling fresh water resources is expected to intensify with projected increase in human population in arid regions, expansion of irrigated land and changes in climate and drought patterns. The volume of water stored in reservoirs would also increase to mitigate seasonal shortages due to rainfall variability and to meet irrigation water needs. By some estimates up to half of the stored water is lost to evaporation, thereby exacerbating the water scarcity problem. Recently, there is an upsurge in the use of self-assembling floating covers to suppress evaporation, yet the design and implementation remain largely empirical. We report a systematic experimental evaluation of different cover types and external drivers (radiation, wind, wind plus radiation) on evaporation suppression and energy balance of a 1.4 m2 basin placed in a wind-tunnel. Surprisingly, evaporation suppression by black and white floating covers (balls and plates) were similar despite significantly different energy balance regimes over the cover surfaces. Moreover, the evaporation suppression efficiency was a simple function of the uncovered area (square root of the uncovered fraction) with linear relations with the covered area in some cases. The thermally decoupled floating covers offer an efficient solution to the evaporation suppression with limited influence of the surface energy balance (water temperature for black and white covers was similar and remained nearly constant). The results will be linked with a predictive evaporation-energy balance model and issues of spatial scales and long exposure times will be studied.

  3. Frequency-Weighted Model Predictive Control of Trailing Edge Flaps on a Wind Turbine Blade

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Castaignet, Damien; Couchman, Ian; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad;

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the load reduction achieved with trailing edge flaps during a full-scale test on a Vestas V27 wind turbine. The trailing edge flap controller is a frequency-weighted linear model predictive control (MPC) where the quadratic cost consists of costs on the zero-phase filtered...

  4. Fatigue life prediction and strength degradation of wind turbine rotor blade composites

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijssen, R.P.L.

    2006-01-01

    Wind turbine rotor blades are subjected to a large number of highly variable loads, but life predictions are typically based on constant amplitude fatigue behaviour. Therefore, it is important to determine how service life under variable amplitude fatigue can be estimated from constant amplitude fat

  5. Model Predictive Control of Trailing Edge Flaps on a wind turbine blade

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Castaignet, Damien; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Buhl, Thomas;

    2011-01-01

    Trailing Edge Flaps on wind turbine blades have been studied in order to achieve fatigue load reduction on the turbine components. We show in this paper how Model Predictive Control can be used to do frequency weighted control of the trailing edge flaps in order to reduce fatigue damage on the bl...

  6. A simplified model predicting the weight of the load carrying beam in a wind turbine blade

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Lars Pilgaard

    2016-01-01

    to predict the weight of the load carrying beam when using glassfibre reinforced polymers, carbon fibre reinforced polymers or an aluminium alloy as the construction material. Thereby, it is found that the weight of a glass fibre wind turbine blade is increased from 0.5 to 33 tons when the blade length grows...

  7. Health-aware Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines using Fatigue Prognosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sardi, Hector Eloy Sanchez; Escobet, Teressa; Puig, Vicenc;

    2015-01-01

    management module with the control provides a mechanism for the wind turbine to operate safely and optimize the trade-off between components life and energy production. The research presented in this paper explores the integration of model predictive control (MPC) with fatigue-based prognosis approach...

  8. Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies, El Niño, and Equatorial Westerly Wind Events*.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Harrison, D. E.

    2000-06-01

    The authors examine global statistical relationships between westerly wind events (WWEs) and sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) variability, using a compositing technique for the period 1986-98. The authors describe the extent to which equatorial WWEs are associated with central and eastern equatorial Pacific waveguide warming and with local SSTA changes under the WWE. Their goal is to quantify the extent to which equatorial WWEs are fundamental to the onset and maintenance of warm El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions. In order to understand the effect of WWEs on SSTA evolution, they begin by examining how SSTA changes in the absence of equatorial WWEs. They find that SSTA tends toward mean climate values in the absence of equatorial WWEs, whether the eastern equatorial Pacific has close to normal SSTA or warmer than normal SSTA.The two equatorial WWE types whose main surface wind anomalies are west of the date line are associated with weak local surface cooling. The equatorial WWE type that has equatorial westerly wind anomalies east of the date line is associated with weak warming under those anomalies, when the eastern equatorial Pacific SSTA is close to normal.When the tropical Pacific has near-normal eastern equatorial Pacific SST, each of the equatorial WWE types is followed by substantial equatorial waveguide warming in the central and eastern Pacific (composite warming as large as 1.0°C); also more than 50% of the large-amplitude WWEs were followed by Niño-3 SSTA warming in excess of 0.5°C. These changes are of similar amplitude and spatial structure as those seen in the onset of El Niño and are consistent with the predicted oceanic response to WWE forcing. When the eastern equatorial Pacific is initially warmer than usual, the two westernmost equatorial WWE types are associated with the maintenance of warm El Niño eastern and central Pacific SSTA; these warm anomalies tend to disappear in the absence of those WWE types. WWEs, or some mechanism

  9. Using Surface Pressure to Improve Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Retrievals from Synthetic Aperture Radar Imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-30

    Jochen Horstmann of NATO Undersea Research Centre ( NURC ). GD and NURC have developed separate methods for estimating wind directions. In addition, NURC ...has been developing “cross-pol” GMFs, which have a lot of promise in the high wind regime. The GD and NURC wind directions are merged into a single

  10. Dynamic Loads and Wake Prediction for Large Wind Turbines Based on Free Wake Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Cao Jiufa; Wang Tongguang; Long Hui; Ke Shitang; Xu Bofeng

    2015-01-01

    With large scale wind turbines ,the issue of aerodynamic elastic response is even more significant on dy-namic behaviour of the system .Unsteady free vortex wake method is proposed to calculate the shape of wake and aerodynamic load .Considering the effect of aerodynamic load ,inertial load and gravity load ,the decoupling dy-namic equations are established by using finite element method in conjunction of the modal method and equations are solved numerically by Newmark approach .Finally ,the numerical simulation of a large scale wind turbine is performed through coupling the free vortex wake modelling with structural modelling .The results show that this coupling model can predict the flexible wind turbine dynamic characteristics effectively and efficiently .Under the influence of the gravitational force ,the dynamic response of flapwise direction contributes to the dynamic behavior of edgewise direction under the operational condition of steady wind speed .The difference in dynamic response be-tween the flexible and rigid wind turbines manifests when the aerodynamics/structure coupling effect is of signifi-cance in both wind turbine design and performance calculation .

  11. Model Predictive Wind Turbine Control with Move-Blocking Strategy for Load Alleviation and Power Leveling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jassmann, U.; Dickler, S.; Zierath, J.; Hakenberg, M.; Abel, D.

    2016-09-01

    This contribution presents a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) with moveblocking strategy for combined power leveling and load alleviation in wind turbine operation with a focus on extreme loads. The controller is designed for a 3 MW wind turbine developed by W2E Wind to Energy GmbH and compared to a baseline controller, using a classic control scheme, which currently operates the wind turbine. All simulations are carried out with a detailed multibody simulation turbine model implemented in alaska/Wind. The performance of the two different controllers is compared using a 50-year Extreme Operation Gust event, since it is one of the main design drivers for the wind turbine considered in this work. The implemented MPC is able to level electrical output power and reduce mechanical loads at the same time. Without de-rating the achieved control results, a move-blocking strategy is utilized and allowed to reduce the computational burden of the MPC by more than 50% compared to a baseline MPC implementation. This even allows to run the MPC on a state of the art Programmable Logic Controller.

  12. Incorporating Wind Power Forecast Uncertainties Into Stochastic Unit Commitment Using Neural Network-Based Prediction Intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

    2015-09-01

    Penetration of renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar power, into power systems significantly increases the uncertainties on system operation, stability, and reliability in smart grids. In this paper, the nonparametric neural network-based prediction intervals (PIs) are implemented for forecast uncertainty quantification. Instead of a single level PI, wind power forecast uncertainties are represented in a list of PIs. These PIs are then decomposed into quantiles of wind power. A new scenario generation method is proposed to handle wind power forecast uncertainties. For each hour, an empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) is fitted to these quantile points. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used to generate scenarios from the ECDF. Then the wind power scenarios are incorporated into a stochastic security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) model. The heuristic genetic algorithm is utilized to solve the stochastic SCUC problem. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies incorporated with interval forecasts of wind power are implemented. The results of these cases are presented and discussed together. Generation costs, and the scheduled and real-time economic dispatch reserves of different unit commitment strategies are compared. The experimental results show that the stochastic model is more robust than deterministic ones and, thus, decreases the risk in system operations of smart grids.

  13. The effect of foam on waves and the aerodynamic roughness of the water surface at high winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troitskaya, Yuliya; Vdovin, Maxim; Sergeev, Daniil; Kandaurov, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    Air-sea coupling at extreme winds is of special interest now in connection with the problem of explanation of the sea surface drag saturation at the wind speed exceeding 30 m/s. The idea on saturation (and even reduction) of the coefficient of aerodynamic resistance of the sea surface at hurricane wind speed first suggested in [1] on the basis of theoretical analysis of sensitivity of maximum wind speed in a hurricane to the ratio of the enthalpy and momentum exchange coefficients was then confirmed by a number of field (e.g.[2]) and laboratory [3] experiments, which showed that the sea surface drag coefficient was significantly reduced in comparison with the parameterization obtained at moderate to strong wind conditions. The theoretical explanations of the effect of the sea surface drag reduction exploit either peculiarities of the air flow over breaking waves (e.g.[4,5]) or the effect of sea drops and spray on the wind-wave momentum exchange (e.g. [6,7]). Recently an alternative hypothesis was suggested in [8], where the surface drag reduction in hurricanes was explained by the influence of foam covering sea surface on its aerodynamic roughness. This paper describes a series of laboratory experiments in Thermostratified Wind-Wave Tank (TSWiWaT) of IAP directed to investigation of the foam impact on the short-wave part of the surface waves and the momentum exchange in the atmospheric boundary layer at high winds in the range of equivalent 10-m wind speed from 12 to 38 m/s. A special foam generator was designed for these experiments. The air flow parameters were retrieved from measurements of the velocity profiles. The frequency-wavenumber spectra of surface waves were retrieved from the measurements of water surface elevation by the array 3-channel wave gauge. Foam coverage of water surface was controlled by video filming of the water surface. The results of measurements were compared with predictions of the quasi-linear model of atmospheric boundary layer over

  14. Simplified Approach to Predicting Rough Surface Transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, Robert J.; Stripf, Matthias

    2009-01-01

    Turbine vane heat transfer predictions are given for smooth and rough vanes where the experimental data show transition moving forward on the vane as the surface roughness physical height increases. Consiste nt with smooth vane heat transfer, the transition moves forward for a fixed roughness height as the Reynolds number increases. Comparison s are presented with published experimental data. Some of the data ar e for a regular roughness geometry with a range of roughness heights, Reynolds numbers, and inlet turbulence intensities. The approach ta ken in this analysis is to treat the roughness in a statistical sense , consistent with what would be obtained from blades measured after e xposure to actual engine environments. An approach is given to determ ine the equivalent sand grain roughness from the statistics of the re gular geometry. This approach is guided by the experimental data. A roughness transition criterion is developed, and comparisons are made with experimental data over the entire range of experimental test co nditions. Additional comparisons are made with experimental heat tran sfer data, where the roughness geometries are both regular as well a s statistical. Using the developed analysis, heat transfer calculatio ns are presented for the second stage vane of a high pressure turbine at hypothetical engine conditions.

  15. High wind speeds prevent formation of a distinct bacterioneuston community in the sea-surface microlayer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahlff, Janina; Stolle, Christian; Giebel, Helge-Ansgar; Brinkhoff, Thorsten; Ribas-Ribas, Mariana; Hodapp, Dorothee; Wurl, Oliver

    2017-05-01

    The sea-surface microlayer (SML) at the boundary between atmosphere and hydrosphere represents a demanding habitat for bacteria. Wind speed is a crucial but poorly studied factor for its physical integrity. Increasing atmospheric burden of CO2, as suggested for future climate scenarios, may particularly act on this habitat at the air-sea interface. We investigated the effect of increasing wind speeds and different pCO2 levels on SML microbial communities in a wind-wave tunnel, which offered the advantage of low spatial and temporal variability. We found that enrichment of bacteria in the SML occurred solely at a U10 wind speed of ≤5.6 m s-1 in the tunnel and ≤4.1 m s-1 in the Baltic Sea. High pCO2 levels further intensified the bacterial enrichment in the SML during low wind speed. In addition, low wind speed and pCO2 induced the formation of a distinctive bacterial community as revealed by 16S rRNA gene fingerprints and influenced the presence or absence of individual taxonomic units within the SML. We conclude that physical stability of the SML below a system-specific wind speed threshold induces specific bacterial communities in the SML entailing strong implications for ecosystem functioning by wind-driven impacts on habitat properties, gas exchange and matter cycling processes. © FEMS 2017.

  16. Modeling Solar-Wind Heavy-Ions' Potential Sputtering of Lunar KREEP Surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barghouty, A. F.; Meyer, F. W.; Harris, R. P.; Adams, J. H., Jr.

    2012-01-01

    Recent laboratory data suggest that potential sputtering may be an important weathering mechanism that can affect the composition of both the lunar surface and its tenuous exosphere; its role and implications, however, remain unclear. Using a relatively simple kinetic model, we will demonstrate that solar-wind heavy ions induced sputtering of KREEP surfaces is critical in establishing the timescale of the overall solar-wind sputtering process of the lunar surface. We will also also show that potential sputtering leads to a more pronounced and significant differentiation between depleted and enriched surface elements. We briefly discuss the impacts of enhanced sputtering on the composition of the regolith and the exosphere, as well as of solar-wind sputtering as a source of hydrogen and water on the moon.

  17. Predicting wind farm wake interaction with RANS: an investigation of the Coriolis force

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Laan, Paul; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Sørensen, Niels N.;

    2015-01-01

    A Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes code is used to simulate the interaction of two neighboring wind farms. The influence of the Coriolis force is investigated by modeling the atmospheric surface/boundary layer with three different methodologies. The results show that the Coriolis force is negligible...

  18. Doppler Navigation System with a Non-Stabilized Antenna as a Sea-Surface Wind Sensor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekrasov, Alexey; Khachaturian, Alena; Veremyev, Vladimir; Bogachev, Mikhail

    2017-06-09

    We propose a concept of the utilization of an aircraft Doppler Navigation System (DNS) as a sea-surface wind sensor complementary to its normal functionality. The DNS with an antenna, which is non-stabilized physically to the local horizontal with x-configured beams, is considered. We consider the wind measurements by the DNS configured in the multi-beam scatterometer mode for a rectilinear flight scenario. The system feasibility and the efficiency of the proposed wind algorithm retrieval are supported by computer simulations. Finally, the associated limitations of the proposed approach are considered.

  19. Validation of sea surface temperature, wind speed and integrated water vapour from MSMR measurements. Project report

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Muraleedharan, P.M.

    and autonomous weather station) were utilized for measuring sea truth parameters such as sea surface temperature (SST), Sea Surface Wind Speed (WS) and Columnar Water Vapor (WV). Total match-ups for SST and WS measured from various platforms exceeded 1400 (2 hrs...

  20. A fast model for mean and turbulent wind characteristics over terrain with mixed surface roughness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Astrup, P.; Mikkelsen, T.; Jensen, N.O.

    1997-01-01

    The real-time near-range atmospheric model chain in RODOS already includes the fast spectral LINCOM code, which was originally developed by Rise for modelling the mean wind fields over hilly, but otherwise homogeneous, terrain. Its output is used as a wind field driver for the dispersion model...... of arrival of radioactive clouds traversing, for instance, a land/water/land surface, and (2) for calculation of the turbulent shear stress, and thereby the scaling parameters, over mixed terrain....

  1. Remote Sensing of Sea Surface Wind of Hurricane Michael by GPS Reflected Signals

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, the propagating geometry and the waveform of the GPS reflected signals are expatiated in detail. Furthermore, the principle and the method of retrieving sea surface wind are presented. In order to test the feasibility of retrieval, the experiment data obtained by NASA in Hurricane Michael are used. The result shows that the retrieval accuracy of wind speed is about 2 m/s.

  2. Hybridizing the fifth generation mesoscale model with artificial neural networks for short-term wind speed prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho; Perez-Bellido, Angel M.; Ortiz-Garcia, Emilio G.; Portilla-Figueras, Antonio [Department of Signal Theory and Communications, Universidad de Alcala, Madrid (Spain); Prieto, Luis [Wind Resource Department, Iberdrola Renovables, Madrid (Spain); Paredes, Daniel [Department of Physics of the Earth, Astronomy and Astrophysics II, Universidad Complutense de Madrid (Spain)

    2009-06-15

    This paper presents the hybridization of the fifth generation mesoscale model (MM5) with neural networks in order to tackle a problem of short-term wind speed prediction. The mean hourly wind speed forecast at wind turbines in a wind park is an important parameter used to predict the total power production of the park. Our model for short-term wind speed forecast integrates a global numerical weather prediction model and observations at different heights (using atmospheric soundings) as initial and boundary conditions for the MM5 model. Then, the outputs of this model are processed using a neural network to obtain the wind speed forecast in specific points of the wind park. In the experiments carried out, we present some results of wind speed forecasting in a wind park located at the south-east of Spain. The results are encouraging, and show that our hybrid MM5-neural network approach is able to obtain good short-term predictions of wind speed at specific points. (author)

  3. Validated Loads Prediction Models for Offshore Wind Turbines for Enhanced Component Reliability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koukoura, Christina

    To improve the reliability of offshore wind turbines, accurate prediction of their response is required. Therefore, validation of models with site measurements is imperative. In the present thesis a 3.6MW pitch regulated-variable speed offshore wind turbine on a monopole foundation is built...... response of a boat impact. The first and second modal damping of the system during normal operation both from measurements and simulations are identified with the implementation of the Enhanced Frequency Domain Decomposition technique. The effect of damping on the side-side fatigue of the support structure...

  4. Adaptive ultra-short-term wind power prediction based on risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xue, Yusheng; Yu, Chen; Li, Kang;

    2016-01-01

    A risk assessment based adaptive ultra-short-term wind power prediction (USTWPP) method is proposed in this paper. The method first extracts features from the historical data, and split every wind power time series (WPTS) into several subsets defined by their stationary patterns. A WPTS that does...... not match with any of the stationary patterns is then included into a subset of non-stationary patterns. Every WPTS subset is then related to a USTWPP model which is specially selected and optimized offline based on the proposed risk assessment index. For on-line applications, the pattern of the last short...

  5. Laboratory investigation and direct numerical simulation of wind effect on steep surface waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troitskaya, Yuliya; Sergeev, Daniil; Druzhinin, Oleg; Ermakova, Olga

    2015-04-01

    The small scale ocean-atmosphere interaction at the water-air interface is one of the most important factors determining the processes of heat, mass, and energy exchange in the boundary layers of both geospheres. Another important aspect of the air-sea interaction is excitation of surface waves. One of the most debated open questions of wave modeling is concerned with the wind input in the wave field, especially for the case of steep and breaking waves. Two physical mechanisms are suggested to describe the excitation of finite amplitude waves. The first one is based on the treatment of the wind-wave interaction in quasi-linear approximation in the frameworks of semi-empirical models of turbulence of the low atmospheric boundary layer. An alternative mechanism is associated with separation of wind flow at the crests of the surface waves. The "separating" and "non-separating" mechanisms of wave generation lead to different dependences of the wind growth rate on the wave steepness: the latter predicts a decrease in the increment with wave steepness, and the former - an increase. In this paper the mechanism of the wind-wave interaction is investigated basing on physical and numerical experiments. In the physical experiment, turbulent airflow over waves was studied using the video-PIV method, based on the application of high-speed video photography. Alternatively to the classical PIV technique this approach provides the statistical ensembles of realizations of instantaneous velocity fields. Experiments were performed in a round wind-wave channel at Institute of Applied Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences. A fan generated the airflow with the centerline velocity 4 m/s. The surface waves were generated by a programmed wave-maker at the frequency of 2.5 Hz with the amplitudes of 0.65 cm, 1.4 cm, and 2 cm. The working area (27.4 × 10.7 cm2) was at a distance of 3 m from the fan. To perform the measurements of the instantaneous velocity fields, spherical polyamide

  6. Locally linear neurofuzzy modeling and prediction of geomagnetic disturbances based on solar wind conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharifie, Javad; Lucas, Caro; Araabi, Babak N.

    2006-06-01

    Disturbance storm time index (Dst) is nonlinearly related to solar wind data. In this paper, Dst past values, Dst derivative, past values of southward interplanetary magnetic field, and the square root of dynamic pressure are used as inputs for modeling and prediction of the Dst index, especially during extreme events. The geoeffective solar wind parameters are selected depending on the physical background of the geomagnetic storm procedure and physical models. A locally linear neurofuzzy model with a progressive tree construction learning algorithm is applied as a powerful tool for nonlinear modeling of Dst index on the basis of its past values and solar wind parameters. The result for modeling and prediction of several intense storms shows that the geomagnetic disturbance Dst index based on geoeffective parameters is a nonlinear model that could be considered as the nonlinear extension of empirical linear physical models. The method is applied for prediction of some geomagnetic storms. Obtained results show that using the proposed method, the predicted values of several extreme storms are highly correlated with observed values. In addition, prediction of the main phase of many storms shows a good match with observed data, which constitutes an appropriate approach for solar storm alerting to vulnerable industries.

  7. The weather roulette: assessing the economic value of seasonal wind speed predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christel, Isadora; Cortesi, Nicola; Torralba-Fernandez, Veronica; Soret, Albert; Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco

    2016-04-01

    Climate prediction is an emerging and highly innovative research area. For the wind energy sector, predicting the future variability of wind resources over the coming weeks or seasons is especially relevant to quantify operation and maintenance logistic costs or to inform energy trading decision with potential cost savings and/or economic benefits. Recent advances in climate predictions have already shown that probabilistic forecasting can improve the current prediction practices, which are based in the use of retrospective climatology and the assumption that what happened in the past is the best estimation of future conditions. Energy decision makers now have this new set of climate services but, are they willing to use them? Our aim is to properly explain the potential economic benefits of adopting probabilistic predictions, compared with the current practice, by using the weather roulette methodology (Hagedorn & Smith, 2009). This methodology is a diagnostic tool created to inform in a more intuitive and relevant way about the skill and usefulness of a forecast in the decision making process, by providing an economic and financial oriented assessment of the benefits of using a particular forecast system. We have selected a region relevant to the energy stakeholders where the predictions of the EUPORIAS climate service prototype for the energy sector (RESILIENCE) are skillful. In this region, we have applied the weather roulette to compare the overall prediction success of RESILIENCE's predictions and climatology illustrating it as an effective interest rate, an economic term that is easier to understand for energy stakeholders.

  8. A LIDAR-assisted model predictive controller added on a traditional wind turbine controller

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood; Hansen, Morten Hartvig

    2016-01-01

    control and opens the market of retrofitting existing wind turbines with the new technology. In this paper, we suggest a model predictive controller (MPC) that is added to the basic gain scheduled PI controller of a WT to enhance the performance of the closed loop system using LIDAR measurements......LIDAR-assisted collective pitch control shows promising results for load reduction in the full load operating region of horizontal axis wind turbines (WT). Utilizing LIDARs in WT control can be approached in different ways; One method is to design the WT controller from ground up based on the LIDAR...... scenarios include the extreme operating gust and normal power production using stochastic wind field in the full load region. The results show superior performance compared to the PI controller and a performance marginally better compared to the FF+PI controller. The reason for a better performance against...

  9. Model predictive control for power fluctuation supression in hybrid wind/PV/battery systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Shi; Liu, Zongyu; Zong, Yi

    2015-01-01

    predictive control (MPC)-based algorithm for battery management in a hybrid wind/PV/battery system to suppress the short-term power fluctuation on the ‘minute’ scale. A case study with data collected from a practical hybrid system setup is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm......A hybrid energy system, the combination of wind turbines, PV panels and battery storage with effective control mechanism, represents a promising solution to the power fluctuation problem when integrating renewable energy resources (RES) into conventional power systems. This paper proposes a model...... together with a Monte Carlo simulation-based sensitivity analysis. In addition to illustrating the complementarity between the fluctuations of wind power and PV power, the results prove the proposed MPC algorithm is effective in fluctuation suppression but sensitive to factors such as forecast accuracy...

  10. Prediction of solar energetic particle event histories using real-time particle and solar wind measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roelof, E. C.; Gold, R. E.

    1978-01-01

    The comparatively well-ordered magnetic structure in the solar corona during the decline of Solar Cycle 20 revealed a characteristic dependence of solar energetic particle injection upon heliographic longitude. When analyzed using solar wind mapping of the large scale interplanetary magnetic field line connection from the corona to the Earth, particle fluxes display an approximately exponential dependence on heliographic longitude. Since variations in the solar wind velocity (and hence the coronal connection longitude) can severely distort the simple coronal injection profile, the use of real-time solar wind velocity measurements can be of great aid in predicting the decay of solar particle events. Although such exponential injection profiles are commonplace during 1973-1975, they have also been identified earlier in Solar Cycle 20, and hence this structure may be present during the rise and maximum of the cycle, but somewhat obscured by greater temporal variations in particle injection.

  11. Research on Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Combined Forecasting Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Chi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Short-Term wind power forecasting is crucial for power grid since the generated energy of wind farm fluctuates frequently. In this paper, a physical forecasting model based on NWP and a statistical forecasting model with optimized initial value in the method of BP neural network are presented. In order to make full use of the advantages of the models presented and overcome the limitation of the disadvantage, the equal weight model and the minimum variance model are established for wind power prediction. Simulation results show that the combination forecasting model is more precise than single forecasting model and the minimum variance combination model can dynamically adjust weight of each single method, restraining the forecasting error further.

  12. Models and methods for wind effect prediction; Modeller og metoder til prediktion af vindeffekt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joensen, A.

    1997-12-31

    In this report methods and models for predicting power produced by windmills, are considered. Several methods are suggested and investigated on actual observations of wind speed and the corresponding power. In order to improve the predictions meteorological forecasts are used in the formulation of the models. The methods applied cover non-parametric identification, least squares estimation and local regression. It was found that the meteorological forecasts significantly improved the predictions, and that a combination of non-parametric and parametric modelling, proved to be successful. (au) 38 refs.

  13. WAsP prediction errors due to site orography[Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bowen, A.J.; Mortensen, N.G.

    2004-12-01

    The influence of rugged terrain on the prediction accuracy of the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP) is investigated using a case study of field measurements taken in rugged terrain. The parameters that could cause substantial errors in a prediction are identified and discussed. In particular, the effects from extreme orography are investigated. A suitable performance indicator is developed which predicts the sign and approximate magnitude of such errors due to orography. This procedure allows the user to assess the consequences of using WAsP outside its operating envelope and could provide a means of correction for rugged terrain effects. (au)

  14. Prediction and Migration of Surface-related Resonant Multiples

    KAUST Repository

    Guo, Bowen

    2015-08-19

    Surface-related resonant multiples can be migrated to achieve better resolution than migrating primary reflections. We now derive the formula for migrating surface-related resonant multiples, and show its super-resolution characteristics. Moreover, a method is proposed to predict surface-related resonant multiples with zero-offset primary reflections. The prediction can be used to indentify and extract the true resonant multiple from other events. Both synthetic and field data are used to validate this prediction.

  15. Surface Wind Vector and Rain Rate Observation Capability of Future Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Timothy; Atlas, Robert; Bailey, M. C.; Black, Peter; El-Nimri, Salem; Hood, Robbie; James, Mark; Johnson, James; Jones, Linwood; Ruf, Christopher; Uhlhorn, Eric

    2009-01-01

    The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is the next-generation Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), and it will offer the capability of simultaneous wide-swath observations of both extreme ocean surface wind vector and strong precipitation from either aircraft (including UAS) or satellite platforms. HIRAD will be a compact, lightweight, low-power instrument with no moving parts that will produce valid wind observations under hurricane conditions when existing microwave sensors (radiometers or scatterometers) are hindered by precipitation. The SFMR i s a proven aircraft remote sensing system for simultaneously observing extreme ocean surface wind speeds and rain rates, including those of major hurricane intensity. The proposed HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer technology. The first version of the instrument will be a single polarization system for wind speed and rain rate, with a dual-polarization system to follow for wind vector capability. This sensor will operate over 4-7 GHz (C-band frequencies) where the required tropical cyclone remote sensing physics has been validated by both SFMR and WindSat radiometers. HIRAD incorporates a unique, technologically advanced array antenna and several other technologies successfully demonstrated by NASA s Instrument Incubator Program. A brassboard (laboratory) version of the instrument has been completed and successfully tested in a test chamber. Development of the aircraft instrument is underway, with flight testing planned for the fall of 2009. Preliminary Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) show that HIRAD will have a significant positive impact on surface wind analyses as either a new aircraft or satellite sensor. New off-nadir data collected in 2008 by SFMR that affirms the ability of this measurement technique to obtain wind speed data at non-zero incidence angle will

  16. Vibration Analysis and Time Series Prediction for Wind Turbine Gearbox Prognostics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossam A. Gabbar

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Premature failure of a gearbox in a wind turbine poses a high risk of increasing the operational and maintenance costs and decreasing the profit margins. Prognostics and health management (PHM techniques are widely used to access the current health condition of the gearbox and project it in future to predict premature failures. This paper proposes such techniques for predicting gearbox health condition index extracted from the vibration signals emanating from the gearbox. The progression of the monitoring index is predicted using two different prediction techniques, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS and nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous inputs (NARX. The proposed prediction techniques are evaluated through sun-spot data-set and applied on vibration based health related monitoring index calculated through psychoacoustic phenomenon. A comparison is given for their prediction accuracy. The results are helpful in understanding the relationship of machine conditions, the corresponding indicating features, the level of damage/degradation, and their progression.

  17. Application of numerical weather prediction in wind power forecasting: Assessment of the diurnal cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Heppelmann

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available For a secure integration of weather dependent renewable energies in Germany's mixed power supply, precise forecasts of expected wind power are indispensable. These in turn are heavily dependent on numerical weather prediction (NWP. With this relevant area of application, NWP models need to be evaluated concerning new variables such as wind speed at hub heights of wind power plants. This article presents verification results of the deterministic NWP forecasts of the global ICON model, its ICON-EU nest, the COSMO-EU, and the COSMO-DE as well as of the ensemble prediction system COSMO-DE-EPS of the German National Weather Service (DWD, against wind mast observations. The focus is on the diurnal cycle in the Planetary Boundary Layer as wind power forecasts for Germany exhibit pronounced systematic amplitude and phase errors in the morning and evening hours. NWP forecasts with lead times up to 48 hours are examined. All considered NWP models reveal shortcomings concerning the representation of the diurnal cycle. Especially in summertime at onshore locations, when Low-Level Jets form, nocturnal wind speeds at hub height are underestimated. In the COSMO model, stable conditions are not sufficiently reflected in the first part of the night and the vertical mixing after sunrise establishes too late. The verification results of the COSMO-DE-EPS confirm the deficiencies of the deterministic forecasts. The deficiencies are present in all ensemble members and thus indicate potential for improvement not only in the model physics parameterization but also concerning the physical ensemble perturbations.

  18. Impact of high-resolution sea surface temperature, emission spikes and wind on simulated surface ozone in Houston, Texas during a high ozone episode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Shuai; Choi, Yunsoo; Jeon, Wonbae; Roy, Anirban; Westenbarger, David A.; Kim, Hyun Cheol

    2017-03-01

    Model-measurement comparisons for surface ozone often show significant error, which could be attributed to problems in meteorology and emissions fields. A WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ air quality modeling system was used to investigate the contributions of these inputs. In this space, a base WRF run (BASE) and a WRF run initializing with NOAA GOES satellite sea surface temperature (SST) (SENS) were performed to clarify the impact of high-resolution SST on simulated surface ozone (O3) over the Greater Houston area during 25 September 2013, corresponding to the high O3 episode during the NASA DISCOVER-AQ Texas campaign. The SENS case showed reduced land-sea thermal contrast during early morning hours due to 1-2 °C lower SST over water bodies. The lowered SST reduced the model wind speed and slowed the dilution rate. These changes led to a simulated downwind O3 change of ∼5 ppb near the area over land with peak simulated afternoon O3. However, the SENS case still under-predicted surface O3 in urban and industrial areas. Episodic flare emissions, dry sunny postfrontal stagnated conditions, and land-bay/sea breeze transitions could be the potential causes of the high O3. In order to investigate the additional sources of error, three sensitivity simulations were performed for the high ozone time period. These involved adjusted emissions, adjusted wind fields, and both adjusted emissions and winds. These scenarios were superimposed on the updated SST (SENS) case. Adjusting NOx and VOC emissions using simulated/observed ratios improved correlation and index of agreement (IOA) for NOx from 0.48 and 0.55 to 0.81 and 0.88 respectively, but still reported spatial misalignment of afternoon O3 hotspots. Adjusting wind fields to represent morning weak westerly winds and afternoon converging zone significantly mitigated under-estimation of the observed O3 peak. For example, simulations with adjusted wind fields and adjusted (emissions + wind fields) reduced under-estimation of the peak

  19. Role of Surface Energy Exchange for Simulating Wind Turbine Inflow: A Case Study in the Southern Great Plains, USA

    OpenAIRE

    Sonia Wharton; Matthew Simpson; Jessica L. Osuna; Jennifer F. Newman; Biraud, Sebastien C.

    2014-01-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to investigate choice of land surface model (LSM) on the near surface wind profile, including heights reached by multi-megawatt (MW) wind turbines. Simulations of wind profiles and surface energy fluxes were made using five LSMs of varying degrees of sophistication in dealing with soil–plant–atmosphere feedbacks for the Department of Energy (DOE) Southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Central Facili...

  20. CYGNSS Observations of Surface Wind Speeds in Oceanic Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posselt, D. J.; Crespo, J.; Naud, C. M.

    2016-12-01

    The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission is the first of the new generation of NASA Earth Venture missions, and consists of a constellation of eight small satellites scheduled for launch in November 2016. The mission utilizes GPS signals reflected from the Earth's surface to infer near-surface wind speeds over the global tropical oceans. The eight-satellite constellation will observe ocean-surface wind speeds in all weather conditions (including in heavy precipitation) with a median revisit time of approximately 3 hours. While CYGNSS is designed to measure wind speeds in the inner core of tropical cyclones, it will observe near-surface winds over all oceanic regions within the span of its orbit. The orbit inclination is 35 degrees, which means that the satellite will observe primarily the tropics and sub-tropics; however, because the antennae are angled 28 degrees off-nadir, the effective range of latitudes spans -40 to 40 degrees. As such, CYGNSS will observe regions known to be characterized by rapid extratropical cyclone development (e.g., the southern portion of the Gulf Stream off the U.S. East Coast). In this presentation, we discuss CYGNSS sampling characteristics, with an eye toward its potential to observe winds not only in tropical cyclones, but in extratropical cyclones as well. We simulate orbits over a historical extratropical storm, and also utilize a multi-year database of cyclone centers to determine CYGNSS sampling characteristics integrated over many storms.

  1. A Study of DC Surface Plasma Discharge in Absence of Free Airflow: Ionic Wind Velocity Profile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rafika

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In our study we are interested with the DC (Direct Current electric corona discharge created between two wire electrodes. We present experimental results related to some electroaerodynamic actuators based on the DC corona discharge at the surface of a dielectric material. We used different geometrical forms of dielectric surface such as a plate, a cylinder and a wing of aircraft of type NACA 0015. We present the current density-electric filed characteristics for different cases in order to determine the discharge regimes. The corona discharge produces non-thermal plasma so that it is called plasma discharge. Plasma discharge creates a tangential ionic wind above the surface at the vicinity of the wall. We have measured the ionic wind induced by the corona discharge in absence of free external airflow, we give the ionic wind velocity profiles for different surface forms and we compare the actuators effect based on the span of the ionic wind velocity values. We notice that the maximum ionic wind velocity is obtained with the NACA profile, which shows the effectiveness of this actuator for the airflow control.

  2. Micro-swimmer dynamics in free-surface turbulence subject to wind stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchioli, Cristian; Lovecchio, Salvatore; Soldati, Alfredo

    2016-11-01

    We examine the effect of wind-induced shear on the orientation and distribution of motile micro-swimmers in free-surface turbulence. Winds blowing above the air-water interface can influence the distribution and productivity of motile organisms via the shear generated just below the surface. Swimmer dynamics depend not only by the advection of the fluid but also by external stimuli like nutrient concentration, light, gravity. Here we focus on gyrotaxis, resulting from the gravitational torque generated by an asymmetric mass distribution within the organism. The combination of such torque with the viscous torque due to shear can re-orient swimmers, reducing their vertical migration and causing entrapment in horizontal fluid layers. Through DNS-based Euler-Lagrangian simulations we investigate the effect of wind-induced shear on the motion of gyrotactic swimmers in turbulent open channel flow. We consider different wind directions and swimmers with different reo-rientation time (reflecting the ability to react to turbulent fluctuations). We show that only stable (high-gyrotaxis) swimmers may reach the surface and form densely concentrated filaments, the topology of which depends on the wind direction. Otherwise swimmers exhibit weaker vertical fluxes and segregation at the surface.

  3. A prediction model for wind speed ratios at pedestrian level with simplified urban canopies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikegaya, N.; Ikeda, Y.; Hagishima, A.; Razak, A. A.; Tanimoto, J.

    2017-02-01

    The purpose of this study is to review and improve prediction models for wind speed ratios at pedestrian level with simplified urban canopies. We adopted an extensive database of velocity fields under various conditions for arrays consisting of cubes, slender or flattened rectangles, and rectangles with varying roughness heights. Conclusions are summarized as follows: first, a new geometric parameter is introduced as a function of the plan area index and the aspect ratio so as to express the increase in virtual density that causes wind speed reduction. Second, the estimated wind speed ratios in the range 0.05 database to within an error of ±25%. Lastly, the effects of the spatial distribution of the flow were investigated by classifying the regions near building models into areas in front of, to the side of, or behind the building. The correlation coefficients between the wind speeds averaged over the entire region, and the front or side region values are larger than 0.8. In contrast, in areas where the influence of roughness elements is significant, such as behind a building, the wind speeds are weakly correlated.

  4. Flight paths of seabirds soaring over the ocean surface enable measurement of fine-scale wind speed and direction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yonehara, Yoshinari; Goto, Yusuke; Yoda, Ken; Watanuki, Yutaka; Young, Lindsay C; Weimerskirch, Henri; Bost, Charles-André; Sato, Katsufumi

    2016-08-09

    Ocean surface winds are an essential factor in understanding the physical interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean. Surface winds measured by satellite scatterometers and buoys cover most of the global ocean; however, there are still spatial and temporal gaps and finer-scale variations of wind that may be overlooked, particularly in coastal areas. Here, we show that flight paths of soaring seabirds can be used to estimate fine-scale (every 5 min, ∼5 km) ocean surface winds. Fine-scale global positioning system (GPS) positional data revealed that soaring seabirds flew tortuously and ground speed fluctuated presumably due to tail winds and head winds. Taking advantage of the ground speed difference in relation to flight direction, we reliably estimated wind speed and direction experienced by the birds. These bird-based wind velocities were significantly correlated with wind velocities estimated by satellite-borne scatterometers. Furthermore, extensive travel distances and flight duration of the seabirds enabled a wide range of high-resolution wind observations, especially in coastal areas. Our study suggests that seabirds provide a platform from which to measure ocean surface winds, potentially complementing conventional wind measurements by covering spatial and temporal measurement gaps.

  5. Energy Coordinative Optimization of Wind-Storage-Load Microgrids Based on Short-Term Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changbin Hu

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available According to the topological structure of wind-storage-load complementation microgrids, this paper proposes a method for energy coordinative optimization which focuses on improvement of the economic benefits of microgrids in the prediction framework. First of all, the external characteristic mathematical model of distributed generation (DG units including wind turbines and storage batteries are established according to the requirements of the actual constraints. Meanwhile, using the minimum consumption costs from the external grid as the objective function, a grey prediction model with residual modification is introduced to output the predictive wind turbine power and load at specific periods. Second, based on the basic framework of receding horizon optimization, an intelligent genetic algorithm (GA is applied to figure out the optimum solution in the predictive horizon for the complex non-linear coordination control model of microgrids. The optimum results of the GA are compared with the receding solution of mixed integer linear programming (MILP. The obtained results show that the method is a viable approach for energy coordinative optimization of microgrid systems for energy flow and reasonable schedule. The effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method is verified by examples.

  6. Predicting extreme wind speeds on a tropical island for multi-peril catastrophe modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, James; Moncoulon, David; Millinship, Ian; Raven, Emma

    2013-04-01

    Catastrophe models are important tools used by the reinsurance industry for assessing and managing risk. Here, we present the methods used to develop high-resolution wind hazard maps for the Indian Ocean island of La Réunion. As the recent Cyclone Dumile (January 2013) reminded us, the island is at considerable risk from the extreme weather associated with tropical cyclones. It also contains a significant proportion of the total value insured in French overseas territories. The wind maps, alongside flood and storm surge maps, were ultimately combined with exposure information in a multi-peril catastrophe model to provide probabilistic estimates of insured loss. Our wind mapping methodology used established extreme value theory statistics to estimate the annual probability of extreme wind speeds, including those exceeding the observed maxima of our 19 year record, at meteorological stations. This gave approximate wind speeds for a range of return periods at these specific locations. Since the spatial density of the stations was insufficient to resolve the numerous potential effects of the complex island topography, geographically weighted regression (GWR) models were then developed to interpolate these cyclonic wind speeds across the entire island. Factors known to affect local wind speed such as elevation, surface roughness and coastal proximity were explicitly accounted for. Using this advanced interpolation method, wind hazard maps were produced for six return periods between 1 in 10 and 1 in 1000 years. Our maps compared favourably with those of historical events, and also showed patterns of wind speed in agreement with the findings of other studies investigating the effects of topography. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) further confirmed the satisfactory performance of the models in providing a robust and comprehensive description of wind patterns during cyclone passage. Uncertainty increased with return period as more extrapolation of the limited

  7. Wind Speed Prediction Using a Univariate ARIMA Model and a Multivariate NARX Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erasmo Cadenas

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Two on step ahead wind speed forecasting models were compared. A univariate model was developed using a linear autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA. This method’s performance is well studied for a large number of prediction problems. The other is a multivariate model developed using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (NARX. This uses the variables: barometric pressure, air temperature, wind direction and solar radiation or relative humidity, as well as delayed wind speed. Both models were developed from two databases from two sites: an hourly average measurements database from La Mata, Oaxaca, Mexico, and a ten minute average measurements database from Metepec, Hidalgo, Mexico. The main objective was to compare the impact of the various meteorological variables on the performance of the multivariate model of wind speed prediction with respect to the high performance univariate linear model. The NARX model gave better results with improvements on the ARIMA model of between 5.5% and 10. 6% for the hourly database and of between 2.3% and 12.8% for the ten minute database for mean absolute error and mean squared error, respectively.

  8. Coastal Boundary Layer Characteristics of Wind, Turbulence, and Surface Roughness Parameter over the Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. V. S. Namboodiri

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The study discusses the features of wind, turbulence, and surface roughness parameter over the coastal boundary layer of the Peninsular Indian Station, Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station (TERLS. Every 5 min measurements from an ultrasonic anemometer at 3.3 m agl from May 2007 to December 2012 are used for this work. Symmetries in mesoscale turbulence, stress off-wind angle computations, structure of scalar wind, resultant wind direction, momentum flux (M, Obukhov length (L, frictional velocity (u*, w-component, turbulent heat flux (H, drag coefficient (CD, turbulent intensities, standard deviation of wind directions (σθ, wind steadiness factor-σθ relationship, bivariate normal distribution (BND wind model, surface roughness parameter (z0, z0 and wind direction (θ relationship, and variation of z0 with the Indian South West monsoon activity are discussed.

  9. Entrainment of radio frequency chaff by wind as a function of surface aerodynamic roughness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillies, John A; Nickling, William G

    2003-02-01

    Radio frequency (RF) chaff (approximately 2-cm x 25-microm diameter aluminum-coated glass silicate cylinders) released by military aircraft during testing and training activities has the potential to become entrained by wind upon settling to the Earth's surface. Once entrained from the surface there is the potential for RF chaff to be abraded and produce PM10 and PM2.5, which are regulated pollutants and pose health concerns. A series of portable wind tunnel tests were carried out to examine the propensity of RF chaff to become entrained by wind by defining the relationship between the threshold friction velocity of RF chaff (u(*t RF chaff)) and aerodynamic roughness (z(o)) of surfaces onto which it may deposit. The test surfaces were of varying roughness including types near the Naval Air Station (NAS), Fallon, NV, where RF chaff is released. The u(*t) of this fibrous material ranged from 0.14 m/sec for a smooth playa to 0.82 m/sec for a rough crusted playa surface with larger cobble-sized (approximately 6-26-cm diameter) rocks rising above the surface. The u(*t RF chaff) is dependent on the z(o) of the surface onto which it falls as well as the physical characteristics of the roughness. The wind regime of Fallon would allow for chaff suspension events to occur should it settle on typical surfaces in the area. However, the wind climatology of this area makes the probability of such events relatively low.

  10. Coherent motions and time scales that control heat and mass transfer at wind-swept water surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turney, D. E.

    2016-12-01

    Forecast of the heat and chemical budgets of lakes, rivers, and oceans requires improved predictive understanding of air-water interfacial transfer coefficients. Here we present laboratory observations of the coherent motions that occupy the air-water interface at wind speeds (U10) 1.1-8.9 m/s. Spatiotemporal near-surface velocity data and interfacial renewal data are made available by a novel flow tracer method. The relative activity, velocity scales, and time scales of the various coherent interfacial motions are measured, namely for Langmuir circulations, streamwise streaks, nonbreaking wind waves, parasitic capillary waves, nonturbulent breaking wind waves, and turbulence-generating breaking wind waves. Breaking waves exhibit a sudden jump in streamwise interfacial velocity wherein the velocity jumps up to exceed the wave celerity and destroys nearby parasitic capillary waves. Four distinct hydrodynamic regimes are found to exist between U10 = 0 and 8.9 m/s, each with a unique population balance of the various coherent motions. The velocity scales, time scales, and population balance of the different coherent motions are input to a first-principles gas transfer model to explain the waterside transfer coefficient (kw) as well as experimental patterns of temperature and gas concentration. The model mixes concepts from surface renewal and divergence theories and requires surface divergence strength (β), the Lagrangian residence time inside the upwelling zone (tLu), and the total lifetime of new interface before it is downwelled (tLT). The model's output agrees with time-averaged measurements kw, patterns of temperature in infrared photographs, and spatial patterns of gas concentration and kw from direct numerical simulations. Several nondimensional parameters, e.g. βtLu and τstLT where τs is the interfacial shear rate, determine the effectiveness of a particular type of coherent motion for affecting kw.

  11. Predicting the Reaction of the Magnetosphere-Ionosphere System to Driving by the Solar Wind: A Global Correlation Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borovsky, J.; Denton, M.

    2016-12-01

    Using canonical correlation analysis (CCA) we are looking at the correlation patterns between the multi-variable solar-wind data set and an Earth data set of comprised of multiple measures of the state of the magnetosphere (geomagnetic indices and other indices). We will treat the Earth data set as a "stock market" and we define a "stock-market index". The primary correlation in the composite solar-wind-magnetosphere system yields a very accurate prediction of the reaction of the "index" to the solar wind, and the magnetosphere's reaction shows a remarkable degree of linearity with solar-wind parameters. Secondary correlations in the composite solar-wind-magnetosphere system show different modes of reaction of the magnetosphere to the solar wind. The CCA methodology highlights a physics versus mathematics dilemma in discerning how the solar wind drives the magnetosphere.

  12. Quality Control Methodology Of A Surface Wind Observational Database In North Eastern North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucio-Eceiza, Etor E.; Fidel González-Rouco, J.; Navarro, Jorge; Conte, Jorge; Beltrami, Hugo

    2016-04-01

    This work summarizes the design and application of a Quality Control (QC) procedure for an observational surface wind database located in North Eastern North America. The database consists of 526 sites (486 land stations and 40 buoys) with varying resolutions of hourly, 3 hourly and 6 hourly data, compiled from three different source institutions with uneven measurement units and changing measuring procedures, instrumentation and heights. The records span from 1953 to 2010. The QC process is composed of different phases focused either on problems related with the providing source institutions or measurement errors. The first phases deal with problems often related with data recording and management: (1) compilation stage dealing with the detection of typographical errors, decoding problems, site displacements and unification of institutional practices; (2) detection of erroneous data sequence duplications within a station or among different ones; (3) detection of errors related with physically unrealistic data measurements. The last phases are focused on instrumental errors: (4) problems related with low variability, placing particular emphasis on the detection of unrealistic low wind speed records with the help of regional references; (5) high variability related erroneous records; (6) standardization of wind speed record biases due to changing measurement heights, detection of wind speed biases on week to monthly timescales, and homogenization of wind direction records. As a result, around 1.7% of wind speed records and 0.4% of wind direction records have been deleted, making a combined total of 1.9% of removed records. Additionally, around 15.9% wind speed records and 2.4% of wind direction data have been also corrected.

  13. Retrieval of sea surface winds under hurricane conditions from GNSS-R observations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JING Cheng; YANG Xiaofeng; MA Wentao; YU Yang; DONG Di; LI Ziwei; XU Cong

    2016-01-01

    Reflected signals from global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs) have been widely acknowledged as an important remote sensing tool for retrieving sea surface wind speeds. The power of GNSS reflectometry (GNSS-R) signals can be mapped in delay chips and Doppler frequency space to generate delay Doppler power maps (DDMs), whose characteristics are related to sea surface roughness and can be used to retrieve wind speeds. However, the bistatic radar cross section (BRCS), which is strongly related to the sea surface roughness, is extensively used in radar. Therefore, a bistatic radar cross section (BRCS) map with a modified BRCS equation in a GNSS-R application is introduced. On the BRCS map, three observables are proposed to represent the sea surface roughness to establish a relationship with the sea surface wind speed. Airborne Hurricane Dennis (2005) GNSS-R data are then used. More than 16 000 BRCS maps are generated to establish GMFs of the three observables. Finally, the proposed model and classic one-dimensional delay waveform (DW) matching methods are compared, and the proposed model demonstrates a better performance for the high wind speed retrievals.

  14. Scientific opportunities using satellite surface wind stress measurements over the ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-01-01

    Scientific opportunities that would be possible with the ability to collect wind data from space are highlighted. Minimum requirements for the space platform and ground data reduction system are assessed. The operational uses that may develop in government and commercial applications of these data are reviewed. The opportunity to predict the large-scale ocean anomaly called El Nino is highlighted.

  15. Predicting and mapping potential Whooping Crane stopover habitat to guide site selection for wind energy projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belaire, J Amy; Kreakie, Betty J; Keitt, Timothy; Minor, Emily

    2014-04-01

    Migratory stopover habitats are often not part of planning for conservation or new development projects. We identified potential stopover habitats within an avian migratory flyway and demonstrated how this information can guide the site-selection process for new development. We used the random forests modeling approach to map the distribution of predicted stopover habitat for the Whooping Crane (Grus americana), an endangered species whose migratory flyway overlaps with an area where wind energy development is expected to become increasingly important. We then used this information to identify areas for potential wind power development in a U.S. state within the flyway (Nebraska) that minimize conflicts between Whooping Crane stopover habitat and the development of clean, renewable energy sources. Up to 54% of our study area was predicted to be unsuitable as Whooping Crane stopover habitat and could be considered relatively low risk for conflicts between Whooping Cranes and wind energy development. We suggest that this type of analysis be incorporated into the habitat conservation planning process in areas where incidental take permits are being considered for Whooping Cranes or other species of concern. Field surveys should always be conducted prior to construction to verify model predictions and understand baseline conditions.

  16. Active Power Optimal Control of Wind Turbines with Doubly Fed Inductive Generators Based on Model Predictive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Jiuwang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Because of the randomness and fluctuation of wind energy, as well as the impact of strongly nonlinear characteristic of variable speed constant frequency (VSCF wind power generation system with doubly fed induction generators (DFIG, traditional active power control strategies are difficult to achieve high precision control and the output power of wind turbines is more fluctuated. In order to improve the quality of output electric energy of doubly fed wind turbines, on the basis of analyzing the operating principles and dynamic characteristics of doubly fed wind turbines, this paper proposes a new active power optimal control method of doubly fed wind turbines based on predictive control theory. This method uses state space model of wind turbines, based on the prediction of the future state of wind turbines, moves horizon optimization, and meanwhile, gets the control signals of pitch angle and generator torque. Simulation results show that the proposed control strategies can guarantee the utilization efficiency for wind energy. Simultaneously, they can improve operation stability of wind turbines and the quality of electric energy.

  17. Mesoscale Near-Surface Wind Speed Variability Mapping with Synthetic Aperture Radar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, George; Sikora, Todd; Winstead, Nathaniel

    2008-11-05

    Operationally-significant wind speed variability is often observed within synthetic aperture radar-derived wind speed (SDWS) images of the sea surface. This paper is meant as a first step towards automated distinguishing of meteorological phenomena responsible for such variability. In doing so, the research presented in this paper tests feature extraction and pixel aggregation techniques focused on mesoscale variability of SDWS. A sample of twenty eight SDWS images possessing varying degrees of near-surface wind speed variability were selected to serve as case studies. Gaussian high- and low-pass, local entropy, and local standard deviation filters performed well for the feature extraction portion of the research while principle component analysis of the filtered data performed well for the pixel aggregation. The findings suggest recommendations for future research.

  18. Near-surface wind speed statistical distribution: comparison between ECMWF System 4 and ERA-Interim

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcos, Raül; Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Torralba, Verónica; Cortesi, Nicola; Young, Doo; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.

    2017-04-01

    In the framework of seasonal forecast verification, knowing whether the characteristics of the climatological wind speed distribution, simulated by the forecasting systems, are similar to the observed ones is essential to guide the subsequent process of bias adjustment. To bring some light about this topic, this work assesses the properties of the statistical distributions of 10m wind speed from both ERA-Interim reanalysis and seasonal forecasts of ECMWF system 4. The 10m wind speed distribution has been characterized in terms of the four main moments of the probability distribution (mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis) together with the coefficient of variation and goodness of fit Shapiro-Wilks test, allowing the identification of regions with higher wind variability and non-Gaussian behaviour at monthly time-scales. Also, the comparison of the predicted and observed 10m wind speed distributions has been measured considering both inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability. Such a comparison is important in both climate research and climate services communities because it provides useful climate information for decision-making processes and wind industry applications.

  19. Droplet evaporation from porous surfaces; model validation from field and wind tunnel experiments for sand and concrete

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, R. F.; Roberts, I. D.

    The evaporation model of Roberts and Griffiths (1995 Atmospheric Environment 29, 1307-1317) has been subjected to an extensive validation exercise based on a major campaign of field experiments on evaporation from surfaces composed of sand and of concrete. This complements the previous validation which was limited to wind tunnel experiments on sand surfaces. Additionally, the validation using wind tunnel data has been extended to include concrete surfaces. The model describes the constant-rate and falling-rate periods that characterise evaporation from porous media. During the constant-rate period, the evaporation is solely determined by the vapour transport rate into the air. During the falling-rate period, the process in the porous medium is modelled as a receding evaporation front, the overall evaporation rate being determined by the combined effects of vapour transport through the pore network and subsequently into the air. The field trials programme was conducted at sites in the USA and the UK, and examined the evaporation of diethyl malonate droplets from sand and concrete surfaces. Vapour concentrations at several heights in the plume were measured at the centre of a 1 m radius annular source (of width 10 cm) contaminated by uniformly sized droplets (2.4 or 4.1 mm in diameter), key meteorological data being measured at the same time. The evaporation was quantified by coupling concentration and wind speed data. In all, 22 trials were performed on sand and concrete; a further 8 were performed on non-porous surfaces (aluminium foil and slate) as references. The model performance was evaluated against the experimental data in terms of two quantities, the initial evaporation rate of the embedded droplets, and the mass-fraction remaining in the substrate at intervals over the evaporation episode. Overall, the model performance was best in the case of the field experiments for concrete, and the wind tunnel experiments for sand; the performance for wind tunnel

  20. Estimating Sea Surface Salinity and Wind Using Combined Passive and Active L-Band Microwave Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yueh, Simon H.; Chaubell, Mario J.

    2012-01-01

    Several L-band microwave radiometer and radar missions have been, or will be, operating in space for land and ocean observations. These include the NASA Aquarius mission and the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, both of which use combined passive/ active L-band instruments. Aquarius s passive/active L-band microwave sensor has been designed to map the salinity field at the surface of the ocean from space. SMAP s primary objectives are for soil moisture and freeze/thaw detection, but it will operate continuously over the ocean, and hence will have significant potential for ocean surface research. In this innovation, an algorithm has been developed to retrieve simultaneously ocean surface salinity and wind from combined passive/active L-band microwave observations of sea surfaces. The algorithm takes advantage of the differing response of brightness temperatures and radar backscatter to salinity, wind speed, and direction, thus minimizing the least squares error (LSE) measure, which signifies the difference between measurements and model functions of brightness temperatures and radar backscatter. The algorithm uses the conjugate gradient method to search for the local minima of the LSE. Three LSE measures with different measurement combinations have been tested. The first LSE measure uses passive microwave data only with retrieval errors reaching 1 to 2 psu (practical salinity units) for salinity, and 1 to 2 m/s for wind speed. The second LSE measure uses both passive and active microwave data for vertical and horizontal polarizations. The addition of active microwave data significantly improves the retrieval accuracy by about a factor of five. To mitigate the impact of Faraday rotation on satellite observations, the third LSE measure uses measurement combinations invariant under the Faraday rotation. For Aquarius, the expected RMS SSS (sea surface salinity) error will be less than about 0.2 psu for low winds, and increases to 0.3 psu at 25 m/s wind speed

  1. Projected changes to surface wind characteristics and extremes over North America in CRCM5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi

    2017-04-01

    Changes in the tendency of wind speed and direction have significant implications for long-term water cycle, air pollution, arid and semiarid environments, fire activity, and wind energy production. Furthermore, changes in wind extremes have direct impacts on buildings, infrastructures, agriculture, power lines, and trees. This study evaluates projected changes to wind speed characteristics (i.e., seasonal and annual mean, seasonal and diurnal cycles, directional distribution, and extreme events) for the future 2071-2100 period, with respect to the current 1981-2010 period over North America, using four different simulations from the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) with two driving GCMs under RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The CRCM5 simulates the climatology of mean sea level pressure gradient and associated wind direction over North America well when compared to ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. The CRCM5 also reproduces properly the spatial distributions of observed seasonal and annual mean wind speeds obtained from 611 meteorological stations across North America. The CRCM5 simulations generally suggest an increase in future mean wind speed for northern and eastern parts of Canada, due to a decrease of future mean sea level pressure and more intense low pressure air circulation systems already situated in those regions such as Aleutian and Icelandic Lows. Projected changes to annual maximum wind speed show more spatial variability compared to seasonal and annual mean wind speed as extreme wind speed is influenced more by regional-scale features associated with instantaneous surface temperature and air pressure gradients. The CRCM5 simulations suggest some increases in the future 50-year return levels of wind speed, mainly due to changes in the inter-annual variability of annual maximum wind speed. However, the projected changes vary in spatial pattern with the driving GCM fields and emission scenarios

  2. Are we near the predictability limit of tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Matthew; Sardeshmukh, Prashant D.

    2017-08-01

    The predictability of seasonal anomalies worldwide rests largely on the predictability of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Tropical forecast skill is also a key metric of climate models. We find, however, that despite extensive model development, the tropical SST forecast skill of the operational North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) of eight coupled atmosphere-ocean models remains close both regionally and temporally to that of a vastly simpler linear inverse model (LIM) derived from observed covariances of SST, sea surface height, and wind fields. The LIM clearly captures the essence of the predictable SST dynamics. The NMME and LIM skills also closely track and are only slightly lower than the potential skill estimated using the LIM's forecast signal-to-noise ratios. This suggests that the scope for further skill improvement is small in most regions, except in the western equatorial Pacific where the NMME skill is currently much lower than the LIM skill.

  3. Molecular Dynamics Simulations for Predicting Surface Wetting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Chen

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The investigation of wetting of a solid surface by a liquid provides important insights; the contact angle of a liquid droplet on a surface provides a quantitative measurement of this interaction and the degree of attraction or repulsion of that liquid type by the solid surface. Molecular dynamics (MD simulations are a useful way to examine the behavior of liquids on solid surfaces on a nanometer scale. Thus, we surveyed the state of this field, beginning with the fundamentals of wetting calculations to an examination of the different MD methodologies used. We highlighted some of the advantages and disadvantages of the simulations, and look to the future of computer modeling to understand wetting and other liquid-solid interaction phenomena.

  4. Predicting hurricane wind damage by claim payout based on Hurricane Ike in Texas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Myong Kim

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The increasing occurrence of natural disasters and their related damage have led to a growing demand for models that predict financial loss. Although considerable research on the financial losses related to natural disasters has found significant predictors, there has been a lack of comprehensive study that addresses the relationship among vulnerabilities, natural disasters, and the economic losses of individual buildings. This study identifies the vulnerability indicators for hurricanes to establish a metric to predict the related financial loss. We classify hurricane-prone areas by highlighting the spatial distribution of losses and vulnerabilities. This study used a Geographical Information System (GIS to combine and produce spatial data and a multiple regression method to establish a wind damage prediction model. As the dependent variable, we used the value of the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association (TWIA claim payout divided by the appraised values of the buildings to predict real economic loss. As independent variables, we selected a hurricane indicator and built environment vulnerability indicators. The model we developed can be used by government agencies and insurance companies to predict hurricane wind damage.

  5. Linear prediction studies for the solar wind and Saturn kilometric radiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Taubenschuss

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available The external control of Saturn kilometric radiation (SKR by the solar wind has been investigated in the frame of the Linear Prediction Theory (LPT. The LPT establishes a linear filter function on the basis of correlations between input signals, i.e. time profiles for solar wind parameters, and output signals, i.e. time profiles for SKR intensity. Three different experiments onboard the Cassini spacecraft (RPWS, MAG and CAPS yield appropriate data sets for compiling the various input and output signals. The time period investigated ranges from DOY 202 to 326, 2004 and is only limited due to limited availability of CAPS plasma data for the solar wind. During this time Cassini was positioned mainly on the morning side on its orbit around Saturn at low southern latitudes. Four basic solar wind quantities have been found to exert a clear influence on the SKR intensity profile. These quantities are: the solar wind bulk velocity, the solar wind ram pressure, the magnetic field strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF and the y-component of the IMF. All four inputs exhibit nearly the same level of efficiency for the linear prediction indicating that all four inputs are possible drivers for triggering SKR. Furthermore, they act at completely different lag times ranging from ~13 h for the ram pressure to ~52 h for the bulk velocity. The lag time for the magnetic field strength is usually beyond ~40 h and the lag time for the y-component of the magnetic field is located around 30 h. Considering that all four solar wind quantities are interrelated in a corotating interaction region, only the influence of the ram pressure seems to be of reasonable relevance. An increase in ram pressure causes a substantial compression of Saturn's magnetosphere leading to tail collapse, injection of hot plasma from the tail into the outer magnetosphere and finally to an intensification of auroral dynamics and SKR emission. So, after the onset of magnetospheric

  6. Super-Eddington Stellar Winds Driven by Near-Surface Energy Deposition

    CERN Document Server

    Quataert, Eliot; Kasen, Daniel; Klion, Hannah; Paxton, Bill

    2015-01-01

    We develop analytic and numerical models of the properties of super-Eddington stellar winds, motivated by phases in stellar evolution when super-Eddington energy deposition (via, e.g., unstable fusion, wave heating, or a binary companion) heats a region near the stellar surface. This appears to occur in luminous blue variables (LBVs), Type IIn supernovae progenitors, classical novae, and X-ray bursts. We show that when the wind kinetic power exceeds Eddington, the photons are trapped and behave like a fluid. Convection does not play a significant role in the wind energy transport. The wind properties depend on the ratio of a characteristic speed in the problem vc ~ (Edot G)^{1/5} (where Edot is the heating rate) to the stellar escape speed near the heating region vesc(r_h). For vc > vesc(r_h) the wind kinetic power at large radii Edot_w ~ Edot. For vc < vesc(r_h), most of the energy is used to unbind the wind material and thus Edot_w < Edot. Multidimensional hydrodynamic simulations without radiation di...

  7. Conceptions of Tornado Wind Speed and Land Surface Interactions among Undergraduate Students in Nebraska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Den Broeke, Matthew S.; Arthurs, Leilani

    2015-01-01

    To ascertain novice conceptions of tornado wind speed and the influence of surface characteristics on tornado occurrence, 613 undergraduate students enrolled in introductory science courses at a large state university in Nebraska were surveyed. Our findings show that students lack understanding of the fundamental concepts that (1) tornadoes are…

  8. Optimizing Surface Winds using QuikSCAT Measurements in the Mediterranean Sea During 2000-2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-02-28

    r.com/ locate / jmarsysOptimizing surface winds using QuikSCAT measurements in the Mediterranean Sea during 2000–2006 A. Birol Kara a,⁎, Alan J...flux algorithms. J. Geophys. Res. 113, C04009. doi:10.1029/2007JC004324. Large, W.G., Danabasoglu, G., Doney, S.C., McWilliams , J.C., 1997

  9. Lightning attachment to wind turbine surfaces affected by internal blade conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garolera, Anna Candela; Holboell, Joachim; Madsen, Soren Find

    2012-01-01

    on the blade surface instead of the receptor is also possible, with the risk of damages in the composite structure as a consequence. The present paper focuses on electrical fields and streamer activity in connection to conductive components inside a wind turbine blade when a downward leader is approaching...

  10. Evaporation of HD Droplets From Nonporous, Inert Surfaces in TGA Microbalance Wind Tunnels

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-09-01

    2007 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Evaporation of HD Droplets from Nonporous, Inert Surfaces in TGA Microbalancc Wind Tunnels 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER DAAD13...hr (lightly swirled on a rotating plateau). Then, the glass was rinsed with dematerialized water and dried (using appropriate fat-free non-felting

  11. Experiment about Drag Reduction of Bionic Non-smooth Surface in Low Speed Wind Tunnel

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tian Li-mei; Ren Lu-quan; Han Zhi-wu; Zhang Shi-cun

    2005-01-01

    The body surface of some organisms has non-smooth structure, which is related to drag reduction in moving fluid. To imitate these structures, models with a non-smooth surface were made. In order to find a relationship be tween drag reduction and the non-smooth surface, an orthogonal design test was employed in a low speed wind tunnel. Six factors likely to influence drag reduction were considered, and each factor tested at three levels. The six factors were the configuration, diameter/bottom width, height/depth, distribution, the arrangement of the rough structures on the experimental model and the wind speed. It was shown that the non-smooth surface causes drag reduction and the distribution of non-smooth structures on the model, and wind speed, are the predominant factors affecting drag reduction. Using analysis of variance, the optimal combination and levels were obtained, which were a wind speed of 44 m/s, distribution of the non-smooth structure on the tail of the experimental model, the configuration of riblets, diameter/bottom width of 1 mm, height/depth of 0.5 mm, arranged in a rhombic formation. At the optimal combination mentioned above, the 99% confidence interval for drag reduction was 11.13 % to 22.30%.

  12. Two-dimensional curvature of large angle interplanetary MHD discontinuity surfaces: IMP-8 and WIND observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepping, R. P.; Wu, C.-C.; McClernan, K.

    2003-07-01

    This study examines the degree of two-dimensional curvature of solar wind directional discontinuity (DD) surfaces at 1 AU using magnetic field, density, and velocity data from the WIND and IMP-8 spacecraft for a large number (N = 134) of carefully selected events having large "discontinuity angles" of 90° or greater. The discontinuity angle (ω) is measured in the DD's current sheet, the normal (n) to which is estimated by field variance analysis. The fundamental analysis depends on estimates of these DD surface normals at the two spacecraft and the DD's center-times and positions. On average, the transit time from one DD sighting to the other was 36 minutes, and the associated distance along the normal direction was 137 RE. The transition-interval lengths across the DDs are translated into thicknesses and examined for the amount of change between the two spacecraft observing points. The average thickness is relatively large, 14 RE.; the most probable thickness is ≈6 RE. All relevant quantities are examined statistically to establish their distributions, average, and degree of change. A weighted average of the radius of curvature is estimated to be 380 RE, but its most probable value is 290 RE. The average ω is 140° with a relatively large spread (σ = 28°). The average direction of propagation is: longitude (ϕn) = 194° and latitude (θn) = 7° (but = 27°), where ϕn = 0° is sunward and θn = 0° is the ecliptic plane. Various parameters are studied with respect to DD type, i.e., rotational or tangential discontinuity (RD or TD), defined in terms of the "ratio" (in percent) of speed of propagation to net speed of the DD surface, where the net speed is the sum of the convection velocity (along n) plus the propagation speed. The RD %-ratio is moderately small, but the TD ratio is very small or zero. The results by this definition of type are favorably compared to those from the more conventional method, which depends on the absolute strength of the normal

  13. The 2-D Curvature of Large Angle Interplanetary MHD Discontinuity Surfaces: IMP-8 and WIND Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepping, R. P.; Wu, C.; McClernan, K.

    2002-12-01

    This study examines the degree of 2-D curvature of solar wind directional discontinuity (DD) surfaces at 1 AU using magnetic field, density, and velocity data from the WIND and IMP-8 spacecraft for a large number (N = 134) of carefully selected events having large ``discontinuity angles" of 90° or greater. The discontinuity angle (ω ) is measured in the DDs current sheet, the normal to which is estimated by field variance analysis. The fundamental analysis depends on estimates of these DD surface normals at the two spacecraft, and the DDs center-times and positions. On average, the transit time from one DD sighting to the other was 36 minutes, and the associated distance along the normal direction was 137 RE. The transition-interval lengths across the DDs are translated into thicknesses and examined for the amount of change between the two spacecraft observing points; average thickness is relatively large, 14 RE. All relevant quantities are examined statistically to establish their distributions, average, and degree of change. A weighted average of the radius of curvature is estimated to be 380 RE, but its most probably value is 290 RE. The average ω is 140° with a relatively large spread (σ =28°). The average direction of propagation is: longitude = 194° and latitude = 7° (but = 27°). Various parameters are studied with respect to DD type, defined in terms the ratio of speed of propagation to net speed (``ratio") of the DD surface, (the RD ratio is high and the TD ratio is very low or zero). The results by this definition of type are favorably compared to those from the more conventional method, which depends on the absolute strength of the normal component of the magnetic field. There is little difference in any average parameter value according to type. However, the average ω appears to depend slightly on type with the for the RDs being smaller. A DDs type was shown to change in either direction between the two observation positions about 40% of the

  14. 风电功率预测研究%Study on Prediction of Wind Power

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张晓焱

    2015-01-01

    The output power of wind power generation has the characteristics of volatility and unpredictability,which wil increase the difficulty of regional power planning and bring huge chal enges to the safety, economic operation of electric power system. Therefore, high accuracy prediction of wind power can ease a series of problems caused by large scale wind power integration in a certain extent. This paper analyzes how to quantitatively describe the volatility of wind power.%风力发电输出功率具有波动性、不可准确预测的特点,当风电大规模接入后,将提升该区域发电计划难度,给电力系统的安全、经济运行带来巨大的挑战。所以,对风电功率进行高精度预测可以在一定程度上缓解风电大规模并网造成的一系列问题。本文就如何定量地描述风电功率的波动性,即风电功率预测展开分析。

  15. Short-term load and wind power forecasting using neural network-based prediction intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

    2014-02-01

    Electrical power systems are evolving from today's centralized bulk systems to more decentralized systems. Penetrations of renewable energies, such as wind and solar power, significantly increase the level of uncertainty in power systems. Accurate load forecasting becomes more complex, yet more important for management of power systems. Traditional methods for generating point forecasts of load demands cannot properly handle uncertainties in system operations. To quantify potential uncertainties associated with forecasts, this paper implements a neural network (NN)-based method for the construction of prediction intervals (PIs). A newly introduced method, called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE), is applied and extended to develop PIs using NN models. A new problem formulation is proposed, which translates the primary multiobjective problem into a constrained single-objective problem. Compared with the cost function, this new formulation is closer to the primary problem and has fewer parameters. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) integrated with the mutation operator is used to solve the problem. Electrical demands from Singapore and New South Wales (Australia), as well as wind power generation from Capital Wind Farm, are used to validate the PSO-based LUBE method. Comparative results show that the proposed method can construct higher quality PIs for load and wind power generation forecasts in a short time.

  16. Predicting wind-induced vibrations of high-rise buildings using unsteady CFD and modal analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Yue

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the wind-induced vibration of the CAARC standard tall building model, via unsteady Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and a structural modal analysis. In this numerical procedure, the natural unsteady wind in the atmospheric boundary layer is modeled with an artificial inflow turbulence generation method. Then, the turbulent flow is simulated by the second mode of a Zonal Detached-Eddy Simulation, and a conservative quadrature-projection scheme is adopted to transfer unsteady loads from fluid to structural nodes. The aerodynamic damping that represents the fluid-structure interaction mechanism is determined by empirical functions extracted from wind tunnel experiments. Eventually, the flow solutions and the structural responses in terms of mean and root mean square quantities are compared with experimental measurements, over a wide range of reduced velocities. The significance of turbulent inflow conditions and aeroelastic effects is highlighted. The current methodology provides predictions of good accuracy and can be considered as a preliminary design tool to evaluate the unsteady wind effects on tall buildings.

  17. A simplified model predicting the weight of the load carrying beam in a wind turbine blade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikkelsen, Lars P.

    2016-07-01

    Based on a simplified beam model, the loads, stresses and deflections experienced by a wind turbine blade of a given length is estimated. Due to the simplicity of the model used, the model is well suited for work investigating scaling effects of wind turbine blades. Presently, the model is used to predict the weight of the load carrying beam when using glass fibre reinforced polymers, carbon fibre reinforced polymers or an aluminium alloy as the construction material. Thereby, it is found that the weight of a glass fibre wind turbine blade is increased from 0.5 to 33 tons when the blade length grows from 20 to 90 m. In addition, it can be seen that for a blade using glass fibre reinforced polymers, the design is controlled by the deflection and thereby the material stiffness in order to avoid the blade to hit the tower. On the other hand if using aluminium, the design will be controlled by the fatigue resistance in order to making the material survive the 100 to 500 million load cycles experience of the wind turbine blade throughout the lifetime. The aluminium blade is also found to be considerably heavier compared with the composite blades.

  18. Automatic weight determination in nonlinear model predictive control of wind turbines using swarm optimization technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tofighi, Elham; Mahdizadeh, Amin

    2016-09-01

    This paper addresses the problem of automatic tuning of weighting coefficients for the nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) of wind turbines. The choice of weighting coefficients in NMPC is critical due to their explicit impact on efficiency of the wind turbine control. Classically, these weights are selected based on intuitive understanding of the system dynamics and control objectives. The empirical methods, however, may not yield optimal solutions especially when the number of parameters to be tuned and the nonlinearity of the system increase. In this paper, the problem of determining weighting coefficients for the cost function of the NMPC controller is formulated as a two-level optimization process in which the upper- level PSO-based optimization computes the weighting coefficients for the lower-level NMPC controller which generates control signals for the wind turbine. The proposed method is implemented to tune the weighting coefficients of a NMPC controller which drives the NREL 5-MW wind turbine. The results are compared with similar simulations for a manually tuned NMPC controller. Comparison verify the improved performance of the controller for weights computed with the PSO-based technique.

  19. Pressure integration technique for predicting wind-induced response in high-rise buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aly Mousaad Aly

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a procedure for response prediction in high-rise buildings under wind loads. The procedure is illustrated in an application example of a tall building exposed to both cross-wind and along-wind loads. The responses of the building in the lateral directions combined with torsion are estimated simultaneously. Results show good agreement with recent design standards; however, the proposed procedure has the advantages of accounting for complex mode shapes, non-uniform mass distribution, and interference effects from the surrounding. In addition, the technique allows for the contribution of higher modes. For accurate estimation of the acceleration response, it is important to consider not only the first two lateral vibrational modes, but also higher modes. Ignoring the contribution of higher modes may lead to underestimation of the acceleration response; on the other hand, it could result in overestimation of the displacement response. Furthermore, the procedure presented in this study can help decision makers, involved in a tall building design/retrofit to choose among innovative solutions like aerodynamic mitigation, structural member size adjustment, damping enhancement, and/or materials change, with an objective to improve the resiliency and the serviceability under extreme wind actions.

  20. Impact of non-uniform surface magnetic fields on stellar winds

    CERN Document Server

    Holzwarth, V R

    2005-01-01

    Observations of active stars reveal highly non-uniform surface distributions of magnetic flux. Theoretical models considering magnetised stellar winds however often presume uniform surface magnetic fields, characterised by a single magnetic field strength. The present work investigates the impact of non-uniform surface magnetic field distributions on the stellar mass and angular momentum loss rates. The approach of Weber & Davis (1967) is extended to non-equatorial latitudes to quantify the impact of latitude-dependent magnetic field distributions over a large range of stellar rotation rates and thermal wind properties. The analytically prescribed field patterns are dominated by magnetic flux concentrations at intermediate and high latitudes. The global stellar mass loss rates are found to be rather insensitive to non-uniformities of the surface magnetic field. Depending on the non-uniformity of the field distribution, the angular momentum loss rates deviate in contrast at all rotation rates between -60% ...

  1. Using Surface Pressure To Improve Tropical Cyclone /Surface Wind Retrievals From SAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-19

    Jochen Horstmann of NATO Undersea Research Centre ( NURC ). GD and NURC have developed separate methods for estimating wind directions. The GD and NURC ...Working version of SLP retrieval code, including necessary PBL model developments, that is compatible with GD, NURC and WiSAR file formats (as well as for...installed at NURC and we have been experimenting with Horstmann to determine if it can (or should) be included as an integrated part of the NURC SAR wind

  2. Evaluation of ENVISAT ASAR data for sea surface wind retrieval in Hong Kong coastal waters of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Qing; LIN Hui; ZHENG Quanan; XIU Peng; CHENG Yongcun; LIU Yuguang

    2008-01-01

    The C-band wind speed retrieval models,CMOD4,CMOD-IFR2,and CMODS were applied to retrieval of sea surface wind speeds from ENVISAT(European environmental satellite)ASAR(advanced synthetic aperture radar)data in the coastal waters near Hang Kong during a period from October 2005 to July 2007.The retrieved wind speeds are evaluated by comparing with buoy measurements and the QuikSCAT(quick scatterometer)wind products.The results show that the CMOD4 model gives the best performance at wind speeds lower than 15 m/s.The correlation coefficients with buoy and QuikSCAT winds are 0.781 and 0.896,respectively.The root mean square errors are the same 1.74m/s.Namely,the CMOD4 model is the best one for sea surface wind speed retrieval from ASAR data in the COastal waters near Hong Kong.

  3. Improving Wind Farm Dispatchability Using Model Predictive Control for Optimal Operation of Grid-Scale Energy Storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas Halamay

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper demonstrates the use of model-based predictive control for energy storage systems to improve the dispatchability of wind power plants. Large-scale wind penetration increases the variability of power flow on the grid, thus increasing reserve requirements. Large energy storage systems collocated with wind farms can improve dispatchability of the wind plant by storing energy during generation over-the-schedule and sourcing energy during generation under-the-schedule, essentially providing on-site reserves. Model predictive control (MPC provides a natural framework for this application. By utilizing an accurate energy storage system model, control actions can be planned in the context of system power and state-of-charge limitations. MPC also enables the inclusion of predicted wind farm performance over a near-term horizon that allows control actions to be planned in anticipation of fast changes, such as wind ramps. This paper demonstrates that model-based predictive control can improve system performance compared with a standard non-predictive, non-model-based control approach. It is also demonstrated that secondary objectives, such as reducing the rate of change of the wind plant output (i.e., ramps, can be considered and successfully implemented within the MPC framework. Specifically, it is shown that scheduling error can be reduced by 81%, reserve requirements can be improved by up to 37%, and the number of ramp events can be reduced by 74%.

  4. CYGNSS Spaceborne Constellation for Ocean Surface Winds: Mission Design and Sampling Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruf, Chris; Ridley, Aaron; Clarizia, Maria Paola; Gleason, Scott; Rose, Randall; Scherrer, John

    2014-05-01

    The NASA Earth Venture Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) is a spaceborne mission scheduled to launch in October 2016 that is focused on tropical cyclone (TC) inner core process studies. CYGNSS is specifically designed to address the inadequacy in observations of the inner core that result from two causes: 1) much of the inner core ocean surface is obscured from conventional remote sensing instruments by intense precipitation in the eye wall and inner rain bands; and 2) the rapidly evolving (genesis and intensification) stages of the TC life cycle are poorly sampled in time by conventional polar-orbiting, wide-swath surface wind imagers. CYGNSS measurements of bistatic radar cross section of the ocean can be directly related to the near surface wind speed, in a manner roughly analogous to that of conventional ocean wind scatterometers. The technique has been demonstrated previously from space by the UK-DMC mission in 2005-6. CYGNSS will advance the wind measuring capability demonstrated by the experimental payload on UK-DMC to a more mature ocean science mission. The CYGNSS constellation is comprised of 8 observatories in 500 km circular orbits at a common inclination angle of 35°. Each observatory contains a Delay Doppler Mapping Instrument (DDMI) which consists of a multi-channel GPS receiver, a low gain zenith antenna and two high gain nadir antennas. Each DDMI measures simultaneous specular scattered signals from the 4 GPS transmitters with the highest probable signal-to-noise ratio. The receivers coherently integrate the received signals for 1 ms, then incoherently integrate on board for an additional one second. This results in 32 wind measurements per second. CYGNSS has spatial and temporal sampling properties that are distinctly different from conventional wide-swath polar imagers. Spatial sampling is marked by 32 simultaneous single pixel "swaths" that are 25 km wide and, typically, 100s of km long. They can be considered roughly

  5. On-Line Flutter Prediction Tool for Wind Tunnel Flutter Testing using Parameter Varying Estimation Methodology Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ZONA Technology, Inc. (ZONA) proposes to develop an on-line flutter prediction tool for wind tunnel model using the parameter varying estimation (PVE) technique to...

  6. A multi-model assessment of the impact of currents, waves and wind in modelling surface drifters and oil spill

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Dominicis, M.; Bruciaferri, D.; Gerin, R.; Pinardi, N.; Poulain, P. M.; Garreau, P.; Zodiatis, G.; Perivoliotis, L.; Fazioli, L.; Sorgente, R.; Manganiello, C.

    2016-11-01

    Validation of oil spill forecasting systems suffers from a lack of data due to the scarcity of oil slick in situ and satellite observations. Drifters (surface drifting buoys) are often considered as proxy for oil spill to overcome this problem. However, they can have different designs and consequently behave in a different way at sea, making it not straightforward to use them for oil spill model validation purposes and to account for surface currents, waves and wind when modelling them. Stemming from the need to validate the MEDESS4MS (Mediterranean Decision Support System for Marine Safety) multi-model oil spill prediction system, which allows access to several ocean, wave and meteorological operational model forecasts, an exercise at sea was carried out to collect a consistent dataset of oil slick satellite observations, in situ data and trajectories of different type of drifters. The exercise, called MEDESS4MS Serious Game 1 (SG1), took place in the Elba Island region (Western Mediterranean Sea) during May 2014. Satellite images covering the MEDESS4MS SG1 exercise area were acquired every day and, in the case an oil spill was observed from satellite, vessels of the Italian Coast Guard (ITCG) were sent in situ to confirm the presence of the pollution. During the exercise one oil slick was found in situ and drifters, with different water-following characteristics, were effectively deployed into the oil slick and then monitored in the following days. Although it was not possible to compare the oil slick and drifter trajectories due to a lack of satellite observations of the same oil slick in the following days, the oil slick observations in situ and drifters trajectories were used to evaluate the quality of MEDESS4MS multi-model currents, waves and winds by using the MEDSLIK-II oil spill model. The response of the drifters to surface ocean currents, different Stokes drift parameterizations and wind drag has been examined. We found that the surface ocean currents

  7. Current error vector based prediction control of the section winding permanent magnet linear synchronous motor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong Junjie, E-mail: hongjjie@mail.sysu.edu.cn [School of Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510006 (China); Li Liyi, E-mail: liliyi@hit.edu.cn [Dept. Electrical Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150000 (China); Zong Zhijian; Liu Zhongtu [School of Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510006 (China)

    2011-10-15

    Highlights: {yields} The structure of the permanent magnet linear synchronous motor (SW-PMLSM) is new. {yields} A new current control method CEVPC is employed in this motor. {yields} The sectional power supply method is different to the others and effective. {yields} The performance gets worse with voltage and current limitations. - Abstract: To include features such as greater thrust density, higher efficiency without reducing the thrust stability, this paper proposes a section winding permanent magnet linear synchronous motor (SW-PMLSM), whose iron core is continuous, whereas winding is divided. The discrete system model of the motor is derived. With the definition of the current error vector and selection of the value function, the theory of the current error vector based prediction control (CEVPC) for the motor currents is explained clearly. According to the winding section feature, the motion region of the mover is divided into five zones, in which the implementation of the current predictive control method is proposed. Finally, the experimental platform is constructed and experiments are carried out. The results show: the current control effect has good dynamic response, and the thrust on the mover remains constant basically.

  8. AE Geomagnetic Index Predictability for High Speed Solar Wind Streams: A Wavelet Decomposition Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guarnieri, Fernando L.; Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Hajra, Rajkumar; Echer, Ezequiel; Gonzalez, Walter D.; Mannucci, Anthony J.

    2014-01-01

    High speed solar wind streams cause geomagnetic activity at Earth. In this study we have applied a wavelet interactive filtering and reconstruction technique on the solar wind magnetic field components and AE index series to allowed us to investigate the relationship between the two. The IMF Bz component was found as the most significant solar wind parameter responsible by the control of the AE activity. Assuming magnetic reconnection associated to southward directed Bz is the main mechanism transferring energy into the magnetosphere, we adjust parameters to forecast the AE index. The adjusted routine is able to forecast AE, based only on the Bz measured at the L1 Lagrangian point. This gives a prediction approximately 30-70 minutes in advance of the actual geomagnetic activity. The correlation coefficient between the observed AE data and the forecasted series reached values higher than 0.90. In some cases the forecast reproduced particularities observed in the signal very well.The high correlation values observed and the high efficacy of the forecasting can be taken as a confirmation that reconnection is the main physical mechanism responsible for the energy transfer during HILDCAAs. The study also shows that the IMF Bz component low frequencies are most important for AE prediction.

  9. AE Geomagnetic Index Predictability for High Speed Solar Wind Streams: A Wavelet Decomposition Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guarnieri, Fernando L.; Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Hajra, Rajkumar; Echer, Ezequiel; Gonzalez, Walter D.; Mannucci, Anthony J.

    2014-01-01

    High speed solar wind streams cause geomagnetic activity at Earth. In this study we have applied a wavelet interactive filtering and reconstruction technique on the solar wind magnetic field components and AE index series to allowed us to investigate the relationship between the two. The IMF Bz component was found as the most significant solar wind parameter responsible by the control of the AE activity. Assuming magnetic reconnection associated to southward directed Bz is the main mechanism transferring energy into the magnetosphere, we adjust parameters to forecast the AE index. The adjusted routine is able to forecast AE, based only on the Bz measured at the L1 Lagrangian point. This gives a prediction approximately 30-70 minutes in advance of the actual geomagnetic activity. The correlation coefficient between the observed AE data and the forecasted series reached values higher than 0.90. In some cases the forecast reproduced particularities observed in the signal very well.The high correlation values observed and the high efficacy of the forecasting can be taken as a confirmation that reconnection is the main physical mechanism responsible for the energy transfer during HILDCAAs. The study also shows that the IMF Bz component low frequencies are most important for AE prediction.

  10. Relative importance of parameters affecting wind speed prediction using artificial neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghorbani, M. A.; Khatibi, R.; Hosseini, B.; Bilgili, M.

    2013-10-01

    In traditional artificial neural networks (ANN) models, the relative importance of the individual meteorological input variables is often overlooked. A case study is presented in this paper to model monthly wind speed values using meteorological data (air pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation), where the study also includes an estimate of the relative importance of these variables. Recorded monthly mean data are available at a gauging site in Tabriz, Azerbaijan, Iran, for the period from 2000 to 2005, gauged in the city at the outskirt of alluvial funneling mountains with an established microclimatic conditions and a diurnal wind regime. This provides a sufficiently severe test for the ANN model with a good predictive capability of 1 year of lead time but without any direct approach to refer the predicted results to local microclimatic conditions. A method is used in this paper to calculate the relative importance of each meteorological input parameters affecting wind speed, showing that air pressure and precipitation are the most and least influential parameters with approximate values of 40 and 10 %, respectively. This gained knowledge corresponds to the local knowledge of the microclimatic and geomorphologic conditions surrounding Tabriz.

  11. Genetic Programming Approach for Predicting Surface Subsidence Induced by Mining

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The surface subsidence induced by mining is a complex problem, which is related with many complex and uncertain factors.Genetic programming (GP) has a good ability to deal with complex and nonlinear problems, therefore genetic programming approach is proposed to predict mining induced surface subsidence in this article.First genetic programming technique is introduced, second, surface subsidence genetic programming model is set up by selecting its main affective factors and training relating to practical engineering data, and finally, predictions are made by the testing of data, whose results show that the relative error is approximately less than 10%, which can meet the engineering needs, and therefore, this proposed approach is valid and applicable in predicting mining induced surface subsidence.The model offers a novel method to predict surface subsidence in mining.

  12. Predictive control strategies for wind turbine system based on permanent magnet synchronous generator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maaoui-Ben Hassine, Ikram; Naouar, Mohamed Wissem; Mrabet-Bellaaj, Najiba

    2016-05-01

    In this paper, Model Predictive Control and Dead-beat predictive control strategies are proposed for the control of a PMSG based wind energy system. The proposed MPC considers the model of the converter-based system to forecast the possible future behavior of the controlled variables. It allows selecting the voltage vector to be applied that leads to a minimum error by minimizing a predefined cost function. The main features of the MPC are low current THD and robustness against parameters variations. The Dead-beat predictive control is based on the system model to compute the optimum voltage vector that ensures zero-steady state error. The optimum voltage vector is then applied through Space Vector Modulation (SVM) technique. The main advantages of the Dead-beat predictive control are low current THD and constant switching frequency. The proposed control techniques are presented and detailed for the control of back-to-back converter in a wind turbine system based on PMSG. Simulation results (under Matlab-Simulink software environment tool) and experimental results (under developed prototyping platform) are presented in order to show the performances of the considered control strategies.

  13. Optimal Active Power Control of A Wind Farm Equipped with Energy Storage System based on Distributed Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei; Guo, Qinglai

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the Distributed Model Predictive Control (D-MPC) of a wind farm equipped with fast and short-term Energy Storage System (ESS) for optimal active power control using the fast gradient method via dual decomposition. The primary objective of the D-MPC control of the wind farm...... is power reference tracking from system operators. Besides, by optimal distribution of the power references to individual wind turbines and the ESS unit, the wind turbine mechanical loads are alleviated. With the fast gradient method, the convergence rate of the DMPC is significantly improved which leads...... is independent from the wind farm size and is suitable for the real-time control of the wind farm with ESS....

  14. Predictive wind turbine simulation with an adaptive lattice Boltzmann method for moving boundaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deiterding, Ralf; Wood, Stephen L.

    2016-09-01

    Operating horizontal axis wind turbines create large-scale turbulent wake structures that affect the power output of downwind turbines considerably. The computational prediction of this phenomenon is challenging as efficient low dissipation schemes are necessary that represent the vorticity production by the moving structures accurately and that are able to transport wakes without significant artificial decay over distances of several rotor diameters. We have developed a parallel adaptive lattice Boltzmann method for large eddy simulation of turbulent weakly compressible flows with embedded moving structures that considers these requirements rather naturally and enables first principle simulations of wake-turbine interaction phenomena at reasonable computational costs. The paper describes the employed computational techniques and presents validation simulations for the Mexnext benchmark experiments as well as simulations of the wake propagation in the Scaled Wind Farm Technology (SWIFT) array consisting of three Vestas V27 turbines in triangular arrangement.

  15. Real time simulation of nonlinear generalized predictive control for wind energy conversion system with nonlinear observer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouari, Kamel; Rekioua, Toufik; Ouhrouche, Mohand

    2014-01-01

    In order to make a wind power generation truly cost-effective and reliable, an advanced control techniques must be used. In this paper, we develop a new control strategy, using nonlinear generalized predictive control (NGPC) approach, for DFIG-based wind turbine. The proposed control law is based on two points: NGPC-based torque-current control loop generating the rotor reference voltage and NGPC-based speed control loop that provides the torque reference. In order to enhance the robustness of the controller, a disturbance observer is designed to estimate the aerodynamic torque which is considered as an unknown perturbation. Finally, a real-time simulation is carried out to illustrate the performance of the proposed controller.

  16. Numerical Prediction for the Size and Shape of a Flare in a Cross–Wind

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Vicente y Rodríguez

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available A computational fluid–dynamics model is used to simulate the turbulent combustion in a flare exposed to a cross–wind. Our research is mostly focused on the cross flow velocity influence to flame aerodynamics. The flow simulation is performed as three dimensional along a Cartesian coordinates system. In order to simulate the combustion process, a fast–chemistry model with a 1–step global irreversible reaction to form CO2 and H2O is used. A radiation model is used to identify the mean flame trajectory. The simulated configuration consists in a propane discharge into an air stream, get ting oxygen supply from the cross–wind. The velocity of this cross–flow is increased from 0.8 m/s to 12 m/s. Comparative analysis of our predicted values with respect to available experimental results shows good agreement in terms of flame length as well as inclination angles.

  17. Intensification of aerosol pollution associated with its feedback with surface solar radiation and winds in Beijing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xin; Zhao, Chuanfeng; Guo, Jianping; Wang, Yang

    2016-04-01

    Beijing has been experiencing serious air pollution in recent years, resulting in serious impacts on the local environment and climate and on human health. In addition to individual pollution sources and weather systems, feedback between aerosols and downwelling solar radiation (DSR) and between aerosols and winds also contribute to heavy aerosol pollution. By using atmospheric visibility (VIS) to represent the relative amount of aerosol pollution during a 5 week observation around the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) period (22 October to 25 November 2014) over a site in south Beijing, China, we show clear positive relationships between DSR and VIS and between winds and VIS. The sensitivities of daily DSR and surface winds to VIS are approximately 15.42 W/m2/km and 0.068 m/s/km, respectively. The strengthening contributions to atmospheric visibility by surface DSR-VIS interactions and between surface wind-aerosol interactions are estimated at approximately 15% and 12%, respectively, in south Beijing around the APEC period.

  18. Solar Wind Sputtering of Lunar Surface Materials: Role and Some Possible Implications of Potential Sputtering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barghouty, A. F.; Adams, J. H., Jr.; Meyer, F.; Reinhold, c.

    2010-01-01

    Solar-wind induced sputtering of the lunar surface includes, in principle, both kinetic and potential sputtering. The role of the latter mechanism, however, in many focused studies has not been properly ascertained due partly to lack of data but can also be attributed to the assertion that the contribution of solar-wind heavy ions to the total sputtering is quite low due to their low number density compared to solar-wind protons. Limited laboratory measurements show marked enhancements in the sputter yields of slow-moving, highly-charged ions impacting oxides. Lunar surface sputtering yields are important as they affect, e.g., estimates of the compositional changes in the lunar surface, its erosion rate, as well as its contribution to the exosphere as well as estimates of hydrogen and water contents. Since the typical range of solar-wind ions at 1 keV/amu is comparable to the thickness of the amorphous rim found on lunar soil grains, i.e. few 10s nm, lunar simulant samples JSC-1A AGGL are specifically enhanced to have such rims in addition to the other known characteristics of the actual lunar soil particles. However, most, if not all laboratory studies of potential sputtering were carried out in single crystal targets, quite different from the rim s amorphous structure. The effect of this structural difference on the extent of potential sputtering has not, to our knowledge, been investigated to date.

  19. Error estimates for ocean surface winds: Applying Desroziers diagnostics to the Cross-Calibrated, Multi-Platform analysis of wind speed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Ross N.; Ardizzone, Joseph V.; Leidner, S. Mark; Smith, Deborah K.; Atlas, Robert M.

    2013-04-01

    The cross-calibrated, multi-platform (CCMP) ocean surface wind project [Atlas et al., 2011] generates high-quality, high-resolution, vector winds over the world's oceans beginning with the 1987 launch of the SSM/I F08, using Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) microwave satellite wind retrievals, as well as in situ observations from ships and buoys. The variational analysis method [VAM, Hoffman et al., 2003] is at the center of the CCMP project's analysis procedures for combining observations of the wind. The VAM was developed as a smoothing spline and so implicitly defines the background error covariance by means of several constraints with adjustable weights, and does not provide an explicit estimate of the analysis error. Here we report on our research to develop uncertainty estimates for wind speed for the VAM inputs and outputs, i.e., for the background (B), the observations (O) and the analysis (A) wind speed, based on the Desroziers et al. [2005] diagnostics (DD hereafter). The DD are applied to the CCMP ocean surface wind data sets to estimate wind speed errors of the ECMWF background, the microwave satellite observations and the resulting CCMP analysis. The DD confirm that the ECMWF operational surface wind speed error standard deviations vary with latitude in the range 0.7-1.5 m/s and that the cross-calibrated Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) wind speed retrievals standard deviations are in the range 0.5-0.8 m/s. Further the estimated CCMP analysis wind speed standard deviations are in the range 0.2-0.4 m/s. The results suggests the need to revise the parameterization of the errors due to the FGAT (first guess at the appropriate time) procedure. Errors for wind speeds S. M. Leidner, J. C. Jusem, D. K. Smith, and D. Gombos, A cross-calibrated, multi-platform ocean surface wind velocity product for meteorological and oceanographic applications, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 92, 157-174, 2011, doi:10.1175/2010BAMS2946.1. Desroziers, G., L. Berre, B. Chapnik, and P. Poli

  20. Numerical Predictions of Wind Turbine Power and Aerodynamic Loads for the NREL Phase II and IV Combined Experiment Rotor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duque, Earl P. N.; Johnson, Wayne; vanDam, C. P.; Chao, David D.; Cortes, Regina; Yee, Karen

    1999-01-01

    Accurate, reliable and robust numerical predictions of wind turbine rotor power remain a challenge to the wind energy industry. The literature reports various methods that compare predictions to experiments. The methods vary from Blade Element Momentum Theory (BEM), Vortex Lattice (VL), to variants of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RaNS). The BEM and VL methods consistently show discrepancies in predicting rotor power at higher wind speeds mainly due to inadequacies with inboard stall and stall delay models. The RaNS methodologies show promise in predicting blade stall. However, inaccurate rotor vortex wake convection, boundary layer turbulence modeling and grid resolution has limited their accuracy. In addition, the inherently unsteady stalled flow conditions become computationally expensive for even the best endowed research labs. Although numerical power predictions have been compared to experiment. The availability of good wind turbine data sufficient for code validation experimental data that has been extracted from the IEA Annex XIV download site for the NREL Combined Experiment phase II and phase IV rotor. In addition, the comparisons will show data that has been further reduced into steady wind and zero yaw conditions suitable for comparisons to "steady wind" rotor power predictions. In summary, the paper will present and discuss the capabilities and limitations of the three numerical methods and make available a database of experimental data suitable to help other numerical methods practitioners validate their own work.

  1. Dispatching of Wind/Battery Energy Storage Hybrid Systems Using Inner Point Method-Based Model Predictive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deyou Yang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The application of large scale energy storage makes wind farms more dispatchable, which lowers operating risks to the grid from interconnected large scale wind farms. In order to make full use of the flexibility and controllability of energy storage to improve the schedulability of wind farms, this paper presents a rolling and dispatching control strategy with a battery energy storage system (BESS based on model predictive control (MPC. The proposed control scheme firstly plans expected output, i.e., dispatching order, of a wind/battery energy storage hybrid system based on the predicted output of the wind farm, then calculates the order in the predictive horizon with the receding horizon optimization and the limitations of energy storage such as state of charge and depth of charge/discharge to maintain the combination of active output of the wind farm and the BESS to track dispatching order at the extreme. The paper shows and analyses the effectiveness of the proposed strategy with different sizes of capacity of the BESS based on the actual output of a certain actual wind farm in the northeast of China. The results show that the proposed strategy that controls the BESS could improve the schedulability of the wind farm and maintain smooth output of wind/battery energy storage hybrid system while tracking the dispatching orders. When the capacity of the BESS is 20% or the rated capacity of the wind farm, the mean dispatching error is only 0.153% of the rated capacity of the wind farm.

  2. Some challenges of wind modelling for modern wind turbines: The Weibull distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gryning, Sven-Erik; Batchvarova, Ekatarina; Floors, Rogier;

    2012-01-01

    Wind power assessments, as well as forecast of wind energy production, are key issues in wind energy and grid related studies. However the hub height of today’s wind turbines is well above the surface layer. Wind profiles studies based on mast data show that the wind profile above the surface layer...... depends on the planetary boundary layer (PBL) structure and height, thus parameters that are not accounted for in today’s traditional applied flow simulation models and parameterizations. Here we report on one year of measurements of the wind profile performed by use of a long range wind lidar (WSL 70) up...... to a height of 600 meters with 50 meters resolution. The lidar is located at a flat coastal site. The applicability of the WRF model to predict some of the important parameters for wind energy has been investigated. In this presentation, some general results on the ability of WRF to predict the wind profile...

  3. Coupling a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model with Large-Eddy Simulation for Realistic Wind Plant Aerodynamics Simulations (Poster)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Draxl, C.; Churchfield, M.; Mirocha, J.; Lee, S.; Lundquist, J.; Michalakes, J.; Moriarty, P.; Purkayastha, A.; Sprague, M.; Vanderwende, B.

    2014-06-01

    Wind plant aerodynamics are influenced by a combination of microscale and mesoscale phenomena. Incorporating mesoscale atmospheric forcing (e.g., diurnal cycles and frontal passages) into wind plant simulations can lead to a more accurate representation of microscale flows, aerodynamics, and wind turbine/plant performance. Our goal is to couple a numerical weather prediction model that can represent mesoscale flow [specifically the Weather Research and Forecasting model] with a microscale LES model (OpenFOAM) that can predict microscale turbulence and wake losses.

  4. Impact of climate change on surface wind regime over the Peru-Chile upwelling region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goubanova, K.; Echevin, V.; Dewitte, B.; Garreaud, R.; Terray, P.; Vrac, M.

    2009-04-01

    The ocean region off the Chile-Peru coast is characterized by upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters, which drives an exceptionally high biological productivity. This upwelling is induced by the persistent southerly winds along the coast that exhibit a coastal jet structure at intraseasonal scales. Recent climate change studies based on the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) show a strengthening of the large-scale southerlies along the subtropical coast that could lead to an increase in coastal upwelling. However the coastal jet events which represent a considerable source of the synoptic variability of the alongshore winds are characterized by horizontal scale comparable to a AOGCM grid cell size, and cannot be therefore explicitly resolved by the AOGCMs. In order to provide a regional estimate of the winds as predicted by the coarse-resolution AOGCMs, a statistical downscaling method based on multiple linear regression is proposed. Large-scale wind at 10 m and sea level pressure are chosen as the predictor variables for regional 10 m wind. The validation is performed in two steps. First, QuikSCAT and ERS satellite products and NCEP reanalysis for the period 1992-2006 are used to build and validate the statistical model for the present climate. Second, the model is validated under a warmer climate: it is applied to large-scale predictors extracted from HadCM3 AOGCM simulations for the A2 and B2 SRES scenarios (2071-2100); the downscaled wind is then compared with outputs of the PRECIS regional climate model, forced at its boundaries by the same HadCM3 scenarios. To assess climate change impact on the along-shore wind, the statistical downscaling is applied to two contrasted SRES scenarios, namely the so-called preindustrial and CO2 quadrupling. The outputs of the IPSL-CM4 AOGCM are used as predictors. Evolution of the along-shore wind regime with a focus on the change of the coastal jet characteristics is discussed. For this particular

  5. Intercomparison of Several Ocean Surface Wind Products over the Nordic Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Bourassa, Mark

    2014-05-01

    Surface winds are one of the key parameters that control the exchange of energy between the atmosphere and oceans. Being the major source of momentum for the upper ocean, winds mainly control ocean processes and air-sea interaction especially in synoptically active regions such as the Nordic Seas (Greenland, Norwegian, Iceland, and Barents Seas). Intense formation of water masses takes place in the Nordic Seas through cooling, brine rejection, and mixing of Arctic Ocean and North Atlantic waters. Deep water produced in this region by deep convection participates in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Water masses formed in the Nordic Seas are also important for the maintenance of thermohaline structure of the Arctic Ocean. The Nordic Seas has always been a challenging region for Arctic Ocean modeling due to complex ocean circulation, water mass transformation, intense air-sea interaction, deep vertical convection, etc. The lack of reliable high-resolution wind products over the Polar region is another factor that has been impacting modeling of the Arctic Ocean in general and the Nordic Seas in particular. Coarse resolution atmospheric fields are often used to force the Arctic Ocean models. The major drawback of the coarse resolution wind products is their inability to resolve small- and meso-scale cyclones frequently impacting the Nordic Seas. Several gridded surface wind products derived from scatterometer wind observations have reasonably high spatial resolution to represent most of the small scale cyclones in the region. In the present model study, Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform surface wind data (CCMP) are compared against the wind fields from traditional the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 2 (NCEPR), from NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and from the interium version (30km) of the Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR). The NCEPR is a coarse resolution product (1.9°) and still is the primary source of forcing fields for the Arctic Ocean models. The

  6. Solar wind interaction with the Reiner Gamma crustal magnetic anomaly: Connecting source magnetization to surface weathering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppe, Andrew R.; Fatemi, Shahab; Garrick-Bethell, Ian; Hemingway, Doug; Holmström, Mats

    2016-03-01

    Remanent magnetization has long been known to exist in the lunar crust, yet both the detailed topology and ultimate origin(s) of these fields remains uncertain. Some crustal magnetic fields coincide with surface albedo anomalies, known as lunar swirls, which are thought to be formed by differential surface weathering of the regolith underlying crustal fields due to deflection of incident solar wind protons. Here, we present results from a three-dimensional, self-consistent, plasma hybrid model of the solar wind interaction with two different possible source magnetizations for the Reiner Gamma anomaly. We characterize the plasma interaction with these fields and the resulting spatial distribution of charged-particle weathering of the surface and compare these results to optical albedo measurements of Reiner Gamma. The model results constrain the proposed source magnetizations for Reiner Gamma and suggest that vertical crustal magnetic fields are required to produce the observed "dark lanes."

  7. Simulation of rotor aerodynamics : use of the actuator surface method to model the MEXICO wind turbine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Breton, S.P.; Watters, C.S.; Masson, C. [Ecole de Technologie Superieure, Montreal, PQ (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    This presentation discussed the model rotor experiments under controlled conditions (MEXICO) project. The experiments are being conducted in the largest wind tunnel in Europe in order to determine optimal yaw and pitch angles for wind turbines as well as to test the performance of blade aerodynamic profiles and rotor instrumentation. Data obtained during the experiments are used to determine velocity component points in order to develop a greater understanding of wind turbine aerodynamics and improve calculation methods. Blade element momentum (BEM) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and vortex wake codes are used in the program, which includes an actuator surface method embedded in a customized CFD finite element method. To date, the project has validated various models with experimental data, and mapped the induced velocities upwind and downwind from rotors. Further research is being conducted to compare experimental results with other results in the literature related to blade loading, root bending moments, and detailed flow characteristics. Charts of experimental results were included. tabs., figs.

  8. Using Reanalysis Data for the Prediction of Seasonal Wind Turbine Power Losses Due to Icing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burtch, D.; Mullendore, G. L.; Delene, D. J.; Storm, B.

    2013-12-01

    The Northern Plains region of the United States is home to a significant amount of potential wind energy. However, in winter months capturing this potential power is severely impacted by the meteorological conditions, in the form of icing. Predicting the expected loss in power production due to icing is a valuable parameter that can be used in wind turbine operations, determination of wind turbine site locations and long-term energy estimates which are used for financing purposes. Currently, losses due to icing must be estimated when developing predictions for turbine feasibility and financing studies, while icing maps, a tool commonly used in Europe, are lacking in the United States. This study uses the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset in conjunction with turbine production data to investigate various methods of predicting seasonal losses (October-March) due to icing at two wind turbine sites located 121 km apart in North Dakota. The prediction of icing losses is based on temperature and relative humidity thresholds and is accomplished using three methods. For each of the three methods, the required atmospheric variables are determined in one of two ways: using industry-specific software to correlate anemometer data in conjunction with the MERRA dataset and using only the MERRA dataset for all variables. For each season, a percentage of the total expected generated power lost due to icing is determined and compared to observed losses from the production data. An optimization is performed in order to determine the relative humidity threshold that minimizes the difference between the predicted and observed values. Eight seasons of data are used to determine an optimal relative humidity threshold, and a further three seasons of data are used to test this threshold. Preliminary results have shown that the optimized relative humidity threshold for the northern turbine is higher than the southern turbine for all methods

  9. Effect of wind turbine wakes on cropland surface fluxes in the US Great Plains during a Nocturnal Low Level Jet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, M. E.; Aitken, M.; Lundquist, J. K.; Takle, E. S.; Prueger, J. H.

    2010-12-01

    Installation of large scale wind farms is becoming a common operation in the Midwest, and wind farms frequently are situated among fields of agricultural crops. Each wind turbine is known to alter the behavior of the air mass downwind of the rotor; consequently, the rotor wakes alter the local microclimate. Quantification of the effects of wind turbine wakes on local microclimate is required to understand how large-scale wind deployment affects large-scale agriculture. This study examines the potential effect of wind turbine wakes on a corn crop in central Iowa during summer 2010. The field site consisted of one surface flux tower upwind of a row of five modern wind turbine generators, an identical surface flux station downwind of the turbine row, and a ground based LIDAR system downwind of the wind turbines. Each flux tower was instrumented with an array consisting of radiometers, a three-dimensional sonic anemometer, an open cell CO2 analyzer, a cup anemometer and wind vane, temperature and relative humidity sensors, and a tipping bucket. The LIDAR system reliably obtained readings up to 200 m above ground level (AGL), spanning the entire rotor disk (~40 m to 120 m AGL). This presentation examines wake-surface interaction on one particular night, during which the prevailing winds situated the LIDAR directly behind a wind turbine approximately 2 rotor diameters downwind of the turbine tower. As expected preliminary LIDAR results indicate that in the turbine rotor shadow there is a strong deficit of horizontal momentum. Additionally, a strong nocturnal low-level jet occurred above the turbine rotor disk. Wavelet spectral analysis indicates that oscillatory behavior, with frequencies characteristic of wind turbine wakes, is observed in the LIDAR horizontal and vertical winds and in the downwind flux station datastreams. The characterization of wake effects provided by this unique dataset will allow for better parameterization and modeling of wind turbine wake

  10. Extreme Value Predictions for Wave- and Wind-induced Loads on Floating Offshore Wind Turbines using FORM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joensen, Sunvard; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher; Mansour, Alaa E.

    2007-01-01

    probable wave episodes leading to given re-sponses. As an example the motions of floating foundations for offshore wind turbines are analysed taking into consid-eration both the wave and wind induced loads and con-sidering different mooring systems. The possible large horizontal motions make it important...

  11. Wind speed and direction predictions by WRF and WindSim coupling over Nygårdsfjell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilal, M.; Solbakken, K.; Birkelund, Y.

    2016-09-01

    In this study, the performance of the mesoscale meteorological Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model coupled with the microscale computational fluid dynamics based model WindSim is investigated and compared to the performance of WRF alone. The two model set-ups, WRF and WRF-WindSim, have been tested on three high-wind events in February, June and October, over a complex terrain at the Nygårdsfjell wind park in Norway. The wind speeds and wind directions are compared to measurements and the results are evaluated based on root mean square error, bias and standard deviation error. Both model set-ups are able to reproduce the high wind events. For the winter month February the WRF-WindSim performed better than WRF alone, with the root mean square error (RMSE) decreasing from 2.86 to 2.38 and standard deviation error (STDE) decreasing from 2.69 to 2.37. For the two other months no such improvements were found. The best model performance was found in October where the WRF had a RMSE of 1.76 and STDE of 1.68. For June, both model set-ups underestimate the wind speed. Overall, the adopted coupling method of using WRF outputs as virtual climatology for coupling WRF and WindSim did not offer a significant improvement over the complex terrain of Nygårdsfjell. However, the proposed coupling method offers high degree of simplicity when it comes to its application. Further testing is recommended over larger number of test cases to make a significant conclusion.

  12. Enhanced Prediction of Gear Tooth Surface Fatigue Life Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Sentient will develop an enhanced prediction of gear tooth surface fatigue life with rigorous analysis of the tribological phenomena that contribute to pitting...

  13. A GENERALIZED CANOPY MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION TO THE PREDICTION OF URBAN WIND CLIMATE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enoki, Kota; Ishihara, Takeshi

    In this study, a generalized canopy model is proposed by the combination of a fluid force model to consider the drag forces caused by buildings and trees and a turbulence model to overcome inapplicability of the Green's turbulence model to the high packing density. This model can predict the flow field with arbitrary porosities in a contrast to the conventional models. Procedures for the calculation of the parameters in the proposed model based on the land use and digital map data are also described and a fluid force model counting drag forces caused by obstacles existing in the same grid is proposed for the flow field simulation in the urban areas. The proposed canopy model is verified by wind tunnel tests and the onsite measurement. The predicted flow fields around various obstacles with different porosities, such as a tree, a city area and a single building, show good agreements with the measurements. Finally, the wind speed at a meteorological station located in Tokyo city is simulated and the prediction error in the annual mean value is reduced from 23.9% by a meso-scale meteorological model to -1.9% by applying the proposed model.

  14. Short term prediction of the horizontal wind vector within a wake vortex warning system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frech, M.; Holzaepfel, F.; Gerz, T. [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Wessling (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Konopka, J. [Deutsche Flugsicherung (DFS) GmbH, Langen (Germany)

    2000-07-14

    A wake vortex warning system (WVWS) has been developed for Frankfurt airport. This airport has two parallel runways which are separated by 518 m, a distance too short to operate them independently because wake vortices may be advected to the adjacent runway. The objective of the WVWS is to enable operation with reduced separation between two aircraft approaching the parallel runways at appropriate wind conditions. The WVWS applies a statistical persistence model to predict the crosswind within a 20 minute period. One of the main problems identified in the old WVWS are discontinuities between successive forecasts. These forecast breakdowns were not acceptable to airtraffic controllers. At least part of the problem was related to the fact that the forecast was solely based on the prediction of crosswind. A new method is developed on the basis of 523 days of sonic anemometer measurements at Frankfurt airport. It is demonstrated that the prediction of the horizontal wind vector avoids these difficulties and significantly improves the system's performance. (orig.)

  15. The effect of wind-generated bubbles on sea-surface backscatter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vossen, R. van; Ainslie, M.A.

    2009-01-01

    Predictions of sea-surface back-scattering strength are needed for sonar performance modelling. Such predictions are hampered by two problems. First, measurements of surface back-scattering are not available at small grazing angles. These are of special interest to low-frequency active sonar since t

  16. Sea surface wind perturbations over the Kashevarov Bank of the Okhotsk Sea: a satellite study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. I. Tarkhova

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Sea surface wind perturbations over sea surface temperature (SST cold anomalies over the Kashevarov Bank (KB of the Okhotsk Sea are analyzed using satellite (AMSR-E and QuikSCAT data during the summer-autumn period of 2006–2009. It is shown, that frequency of cases of wind speed decreasing over a cold spot in August–September reaches up to 67%. In the cold spot center SST cold anomalies reached 10.5 °C and wind speed lowered down to ~7 m s−1 relative its value on the periphery. The wind difference between a periphery and a centre of the cold spot is proportional to SST difference with the correlations 0.5 for daily satellite passes data, 0.66 for 3-day mean data and 0.9 for monthly ones. For all types of data the coefficient of proportionality consists of ~0.3 m s−1 on 1 °C.

  17. Energy transfer of surface wind-induced currents to the deep ocean via resonance with the Coriolis force

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashkenazy, Yosef

    2017-03-01

    There are two main comparable sources of energy to the deep ocean-winds and tides. However, the identity of the most efficient mechanism that transfers wind energy to the deep ocean is still debated. Here we study, using oceanic general circulation model simulations and analytic derivations, the way that the wind directly supplies energy down to the bottom of the ocean when it is stochastic and temporally correlated or when it is periodic with a frequency that matches the Coriolis frequency. Basically, under these, commonly observed, conditions, one of the wind components resonates with the Coriolis frequency. Using reanalysis surface wind data and our simple model, we show that about one-third of the kinetic energy that is associated with wind-induced currents resides in the abyssal ocean, highlighting the importance of the resonance of the wind with the Coriolis force.

  18. L band radar backscatter dependence upon surface wind stress - A summary of new Seasat-1 and aircraft observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, T. W.; Weissman, D. E.; Gonzalez, F. I.

    1983-01-01

    The wind-scale relationships for L band radar wavelengths near 25 cm and 20 deg angle of incidence and HH polarization are reviewed using a number of aircraft and Seasat-1 SAR observations. The dependence of the L band backscatter coefficient from the ocean upon surface wind speed and direction is stated. The wind speed coefficient is 0.5 + or - 0.1 for a wide range of wind speeds. The wind direction coefficient is near zero for lower winds and stable marine boundary layers, but may be 0.20 + or - 0.05 for moderate wind speeds and an unstable marine boundary layer. These results are interpreted in terms of existing theoretical models for radar scattering from the ocean.

  19. Discussion on wind factor influencing the distribution of biological soil crusts on surface of sand dunes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YongSheng Wu; Hasi Erdun; RuiPing Yin; Xin Zhang; Jie Ren; Jian Wang; XiuMin Tian; ZeKun Li; HengLu Miao

    2013-01-01

    Biological soil crusts are widely distributed in arid and semi-arid regions, whose formation and development have an important impact on the restoration process of the desert ecosystem. In order to explore the relationship between surface airflow and development characteristics of biological soil crusts, we studied surface airflow pattern and development characteristics of biological soil crusts on the fixed dune profile through field observation. Results indicate that the speed of near-surface airflow is the lowest at the foot of windward slope and the highest at the crest, showing an increasing trend from the foot to the crest. At the leeward side, although near-surface airflow increases slightly at the lower part of the slope after an initial sudden decrease at upper part of the slope, its overall trend decreases from the crest. Wind velocity variation coefficient varied at different heights over each observation site. The thickness, shear strength of biological soil crusts and percentage of fine particles at crusts layer decreased from the slope foot to the upper part, showing that biological soil crusts are less developed in high wind speed areas and well developed in low wind speed areas. It can be seen that there is a close relationship between the distribution of biological soil crusts in different parts of the dunes and changes in airflow due to geomorphologic variation.

  20. Prediction of dynamic strains on a monopile offshore wind turbine using virtual sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iliopoulos, A. N.; Weijtjens, W.; Van Hemelrijck, D.; Devriendt, C.

    2015-07-01

    The monitoring of the condition of the offshore wind turbine during its operational states offers the possibility of performing accurate assessments of the remaining life-time as well as supporting maintenance decisions during its entire life. The efficacy of structural monitoring in the case of the offshore wind turbine, though, is undermined by the practical limitations connected to the measurement system in terms of cost, weight and feasibility of sensor mounting (e.g. at muddline level 30m below the water level). This limitation is overcome by reconstructing the full-field response of the structure based on the limited number of measured accelerations and a calibrated Finite Element Model of the system. A modal decomposition and expansion approach is used for reconstructing the responses at all degrees of freedom of the finite element model. The paper will demonstrate the possibility to predict dynamic strains from acceleration measurements based on the aforementioned methodology. These virtual dynamic strains will then be evaluated and validated based on actual strain measurements obtained from a monitoring campaign on an offshore Vestas V90 3 MW wind turbine on a monopile foundation.

  1. Prediction of far-field wind turbine noise propagation with parabolic equation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seongkyu; Lee, Dongjai; Honhoff, Saskia

    2016-08-01

    Sound propagation of wind farms is typically simulated by the use of engineering tools that are neglecting some atmospheric conditions and terrain effects. Wind and temperature profiles, however, can affect the propagation of sound and thus the perceived sound in the far field. A better understanding and application of those effects would allow a more optimized farm operation towards meeting noise regulations and optimizing energy yield. This paper presents the parabolic equation (PE) model development for accurate wind turbine noise propagation. The model is validated against analytic solutions for a uniform sound speed profile, benchmark problems for nonuniform sound speed profiles, and field sound test data for real environmental acoustics. It is shown that PE provides good agreement with the measured data, except upwind propagation cases in which turbulence scattering is important. Finally, the PE model uses computational fluid dynamics results as input to accurately predict sound propagation for complex flows such as wake flows. It is demonstrated that wake flows significantly modify the sound propagation characteristics.

  2. Prediction of SYM-H index by NARX neural network from IMF and solar wind data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    SYM-H is one of the important indices for space weather. It indicates the intensity of magnetic storm, similarly to Dst index but with much higher time-resolution. In this paper an artificial neural network (ANN) of Nonlinear Auto Regressive with eXogenous inputs (NARX) has been developed to predict SYM-H index from solar wind and IMF data. In comparison with usual BP and Elman network, the new NRAX model shows much better prediction capability. For 15 testing great storms including 5 super-storms of Min. SYM-H < -200 nT, the cross-correlation of SYM-H indices between NARX network predicted and really observed is 0.91 as a whole. For the 5 individual super-storms, the lowest coefficients is 0.91 relating to the super-storm of March 2001 with Min.SYM-H of -434 nT; while for the two super-storms with Min. SYM-H ranging from -300 nT to -400 nT, the correlations reach as high as 0.93 and 0.96 respectively. The remarkable improvement of the model performance can be attributed to such a key feedback from the network output of SYM-H with a suitable length (about 120 min) to the input, which implies that some information on the quasi real-time ring currents with a proper length of history does its work in the prediction. It tells us that, in addition to the direct driving by solar wind and IMF, the own status of the ring current plays an important role in its evolution especially for recovery phase and must properly be considered in storm-time SYM-H prediction by ANN. The neural network model of NARX developed in this paper provides an effective way to achieve it.

  3. Impact of surface wind biases on the Antarctic sea ice concentration budget in climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lecomte, O.; Goosse, H.; Fichefet, T.; Holland, P. R.; Uotila, P.; Zunz, V.; Kimura, N.

    2016-09-01

    We derive the terms in the Antarctic sea ice concentration budget from the output of three models, and compare them to observations of the same terms. Those models include two climate models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and one ocean-sea ice coupled model with prescribed atmospheric forcing. Sea ice drift and wind fields from those models, in average over April-October 1992-2005, all exhibit large differences with the available observational or reanalysis datasets. However, the discrepancies between the two distinct ice drift products or the two wind reanalyses used here are sometimes even greater than those differences. Two major findings stand out from the analysis. Firstly, large biases in sea ice drift speed and direction in exterior sectors of the sea ice covered region tend to be systematic and consistent with those in winds. This suggests that sea ice errors in these areas are most likely wind-driven, so as errors in the simulated ice motion vectors. The systematic nature of these biases is less prominent in interior sectors, nearer the coast, where sea ice is mechanically constrained and its motion in response to the wind forcing more depending on the model rheology. Second, the intimate relationship between winds, sea ice drift and the sea ice concentration budget gives insight on ways to categorize models with regard to errors in their ice dynamics. In exterior regions, models with seemingly too weak winds and slow ice drift consistently yield a lack of ice velocity divergence and hence a wrong wintertime sea ice growth rate. In interior sectors, too slow ice drift, presumably originating from issues in the physical representation of sea ice dynamics as much as from errors in surface winds, leads to wrong timing of the late winter ice retreat. Those results illustrate that the applied methodology provides a valuable tool for prioritizing model improvements based on the ice concentration budget-ice drift biases-wind biases

  4. NUMERICAL STUDY OF WAVE EFFECTS ON SURFACE WIND STRESS AND SURFACE MIXING LENGTH BY THREE-DIMENSIONAL CIRCULATION MODELING

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIANG Bing-chen; LI Hua-jun; LEE Dong-yong

    2006-01-01

    The effects of waves on Surface Drag Coefficient (SDC) and surface mixing length were analyzed and discussed by carrying out three-dimensional current modeling for the Bohai Sea in the present work. A three- dimensional coupled hydrodynamical-ecological model for regional and shelf seas (COHERENS) incorporating the influences of wave-current interactions was coupled with the third-generation wave model swan taking into account time-varying currents. The effects of waves on currents were included in the SDC, surface mixing length and bottom drag coefficient. Firstly, the formulations in Donelan were incorporated into the COHERENS to account for wave-dependent SDC. In order to compare simulation results for the wave-dependent SDC, the simulation for wind-dependent SDC was also carried out. Second, Wave-Induced Surface Mixing Length (described as WISML sometimes in this paper) was incorporated into the COHERENS. Four numerical experiments were conducted to discuss the effects of two kinds of wave processes. Generally, the values of time series of current velocity and water surface elevation given by the simulation with all of the three wave processes have a good agreement with observed data. The existence of WISML changes obviously current vertical profiles and the existence of the wave dependent SDC modifies the current field of both top and bottom layers with the wind-dependent SDC.

  5. Surface chlorophyll, westerly winds, and El Nino in the western Pacific warm pool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radenac, Marie-Hélène; Messié, Monique; Bosc, Christelle

    The western equatorial Pacific warm pool is characterized by sea surface temperature (SST) higher than 29° C and sea surface salinity (SSS) lower than 35. It is usually considered as a broad oligotrophic region with a nitrate exhausted and low chlorophyll (lower than 0.1 mg m-3 ) surface layer. Nevertheless, ocean colour imagery shows that surface chlorophyll concentrations vary at the interannual, seasonal, and intraseasonal time-scales. In this study, we use the 2000-2007 SeaWiFS data together with QuikScat wind, TMI SST, altimetric sea level, and OSCAR satellite-derived surface currents to describe and understand the variability of the surface chlorophyll in the region. In particular, nutrient and phytoplankton-rich waters upwelled near the country-regionplaceNew Guinea coast influence the distribution of surface chlorophyll in the equatorial warm pool from intra-seasonal to interannual time-scales. We show that the eastern part of the region is occupied by a quasi-persistent strip of very oligotrophic waters with chlorophyll concentrations close to those observed in the subtropical gyres (0.07 mg m-3 ). It extends over about 20 degrees of longitude and its width varies seasonally and with the El Niño/La Niña phases. Overall, this very oligotrophic zone matches n n the well-documented region with the warmest SST (over 30° C), thickest barrier layer (more than 20 m), and highest sea level (more than 220 cm) of the equatorial Pacific. Its eastern limit matches the eastern edge of the warm pool and moves zonally at seasonal and interannual time-scales. While the eastern edge has been described in previous studies, the western edge is poorly known. It is marked by the 0.1 mg m-3 chlorophyll isoline and its zonal motions occur at seasonal, interannual, and intraseasonal time-scales, as well. We investigate the late-2001 to late-2002 time period to assess the intra-seasonal variability of the surface chlorophyll in relation with the wind intra-seasonal variability

  6. High resolution modelling and observation of wind-driven surface currents in a semi-enclosed estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nash, S.; Hartnett, M.; McKinstry, A.; Ragnoli, E.; Nagle, D.

    2012-04-01

    Hydrodynamic circulation in estuaries is primarily driven by tides, river inflows and surface winds. While tidal and river data can be quite easily obtained for input to hydrodynamic models, sourcing accurate surface wind data is problematic. Firstly, the wind data used in hydrodynamic models is usually measured on land and can be quite different in magnitude and direction from offshore winds. Secondly, surface winds are spatially-varying but due to a lack of data it is common practice to specify a non-varying wind speed and direction across the full extents of a model domain. These problems can lead to inaccuracies in the surface currents computed by three-dimensional hydrodynamic models. In the present research, a wind forecast model is coupled with a three-dimensional numerical model of Galway Bay, a semi-enclosed estuary on the west coast of Ireland, to investigate the effect of surface wind data resolution on model accuracy. High resolution and low resolution wind fields are specified to the model and the computed surface currents are compared with high resolution surface current measurements obtained from two high frequency SeaSonde-type Coastal Ocean Dynamics Applications Radars (CODAR). The wind forecast models used for the research are Harmonie cy361.3, running on 2.5 and 0.5km spatial grids for the low resolution and high resolution models respectively. The low-resolution model runs over an Irish domain on 540x500 grid points with 60 vertical levels and a 60s timestep and is driven by ECMWF boundary conditions. The nested high-resolution model uses 300x300 grid points on 60 vertical levels and a 12s timestep. EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) is used for the hydrodynamic model. The Galway Bay model has ten vertical layers and is resolved spatially and temporally at 150m and 4 sec respectively. The hydrodynamic model is run for selected hindcast dates when wind fields were highly energetic. Spatially- and temporally-varying wind data is provided by

  7. A 15-year climatology of wind pattern impacts on surface ozone in Houston, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souri, Amir Hossein; Choi, Yunsoo; Li, Xiangshang; Kotsakis, Alexander; Jiang, Xun

    2016-06-01

    Houston is recognized for its large petrochemical industrial facilities providing abundant radicals for tropospheric ozone formation. Fortunately, maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) surface ozone concentrations have declined in Houston (- 0.6 ± 0.3 ppbv yr- 1) during the summers (i.e., May to September) of 2000 to 2014, possibly due to the reductions in precursor emissions by effective control policies. However, it is also possible that changes in meteorological variables have affected ozone concentrations. This study focused on the impact of long-term wind patterns which have the highest impact on ozone in Houston. The analysis of long-term wind patterns can benefit surface ozone studies by 1) providing wind patterns that distinctly changed ozone levels, 2) investigating the frequency of patterns and the respective changes and 3) estimating ozone trends in specific wind patterns that local emissions are mostly involved, thus separating emissions impacts from meteorology to some extent. To this end, the 900-hPa flow patterns in summers of 2000 to 2014 were clustered in seven classes (C1-C7) by deploying an unsupervised partitioning method. We confirm the characteristics of the clusters from a backward trajectory analysis, monitoring networks, and a regional chemical transport model simulation. The results indicate that Houston has experienced a statistically significant downward trend (- 0.6 ± 0.4 day yr- 1) of the cluster of weak easterly and northeasterly days (C4), when the highest fraction of ozone exceedances (MDA8 > 70 ppbv) occurred. This suggests that the reduction in ozone precursors was not the sole reason for the decrease in ozone exceedance days (- 1.5 ± 0.6 day yr- 1). Further, to examine the efficiency of control policies intended to reduce the amount of ozone, we estimated the trend of MDA8 ozone in C4 and C5 (weak winds) days when local emissions are primarily responsible for high ambient ozone levels. Both C4 and C5 show a large reduction in the

  8. The effect of wind-generated bubbles on sea-surface backscatter

    OpenAIRE

    Vossen, R.; Ainslie, M.A.

    2009-01-01

    Predictions of sea-surface back-scattering strength are needed for sonar performance modelling. Such predictions are hampered by two problems. First, measurements of surface back-scattering are not available at small grazing angles. These are of special interest to low-frequency active sonar since they mainly contribute to long range propagation. Second, existing theoretical models based on a bubble-free interface underestimate the surface back-scattering strength at larger grazing angles. We...

  9. Efficient Prediction of Surface Roughness Using Decision Tree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manikant Kumar

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Surface roughness is a parameter which determines the quality of machined product. Now a days the general manufacturing problem can be described as the attainment of a predefined product quality with given equipment, cost and time constraints. So in recent years, a lot of extensive research work has been carried out for achieving predefined surface quality of machined product to eliminate wastage of over machining. Response surface methodology is used initially for prediction of surface roughness of machined part. After the introduction of artificial intelligent techniques many predictive model based on AI was developed by researchers because artificial intelligence technique is compatible with computer system and various microcontrollers. Researchers used fuzzy logic, artificial neural network, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, genetic algorithm to develop predictive model for predicting surface roughness of different materials. Many researchers have developed ANN based predictive model because ANN outperforms other data mining techniques in certain scenarios like robustness and high learning accuracy of neural network. In this research work a new predictive model is proposed which is based on Decision tree. ANN and ANFIS are known as black box model in which only outcome of these predictive models are comprehensible but the same doesn’t hold true for understanding the internal operations. Decision tree is known as white box model because it provides a clear view of what is happening inside the model in the view of tree like structure. As use of decision tree held in the prediction of cancer that means it is very efficient method for prediction. At the end of this research work comparison of results obtained by ANN based model and Decision tree model will be carried out and a prediction methodology for roughness is introduced using decision tree along with ANN

  10. Evaluation of models to predict insolation on tilted surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klucher, T. M.

    1979-01-01

    An empirical study was performed to evaluate the validity of various insolation models which employ either an isotropic or an anisotropic distribution approximation for sky light when predicting insolation on tilted surfaces. Data sets of measured hourly insolation values were obtained over a 6-month period using pyranometers which received diffuse and total solar radiation on a horizontal plane and total radiation on surfaces tilted toward the equator at 37 degrees and 60 degrees angles above the horizon. Data on the horizontal surfaces were used in the insolation models to predict insolation on the tilted surface; comparisons of measured vs calculated insolation on the tilted surface were examined to test the validity of the sky light approximations. It was found that the Liu-Jordan isotropic distribution model provides a good fit to empirical data under overcast skies but underestimates the amount of solar radiation incident on tilted surfaces under clear and partly cloudy conditions.

  11. Adequacy Assessment of a Wind-Integrated System Using Neural Network-based Interval Predictions of Wind Power Generation and Load

    OpenAIRE

    Ak, Ronay; Li, Yan-Fu; Vitelli, Valeria; Zio, Enrico

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we present a modeling and simulation framework for conducting the adequacy assessment of a wind-integrated power system accounting for the associated uncertainties. A multi-perceptron artificial neural network (NN) is trained by a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II) to forecast point-values and prediction intervals (PIs) of the wind power and load. The output of the assessment is given in terms of point-valued and interval-valued Expected Energy Not Supplied (E...

  12. Observation and simulation of near-surface wind and its variation with topography in Urumqi, West China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Lili; Li, Zhenjie; He, Qing; Miao, Qilong; Zhang, Huqiang; Yang, Xinghua

    2016-12-01

    Near-surface wind measurements obtained with five 100-m meteorology towers, 39 regional automatic stations, and simulations by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were used to investigate the spatial structure of topography-driven flows in the complex urban terrain of Urumqi, China. The results showed that the wind directions were mainly northerly and southerly within the reach of 100 m above ground in the southern suburbs, urban area, and northern suburbs, which were consistent with the form of the Urumqi gorge. Strong winds were observed in southern suburbs, whereas the winds in the urban, northern suburbs, and northern rural areas were weak. Static wind occurred more frequently in the urban and northern rural areas than in the southern suburbs. In the southern suburbs, wind speed was relatively high throughout the year and did not show significant seasonal variations. The average annual wind speed in this region varied among 1.9-5.5, 1.1-3.6, 1.2-4.3, 1.2-4.3, and 1.1-3.5 m s -1 within the reach of 100 m above ground at Yannanlijiao, Shuitashan, Liyushan, Hongguangshan, and Midong, respectively. The flow characteristics comprised more airflows around the mountain, where the convergence and divergence were dominated by the terrain in eastern and southwestern Urumqi. Further analysis showed that there was a significant mountain-valley wind in spring, summer, and autumn, which occurred more frequently in spring and summer for 10-11 h in urban and northern suburbs. During daytime, there was a northerly valley wind, whereas at night there was a southerly mountain wind. The conversion time from the mountain wind to the valley wind was during 0800-1000 LST (Local Standard Time), while the conversion from the valley wind to the mountain wind was during 1900-2100 LST. The influence of the mountain-valley wind in Urumqi City was most obvious at 850 hPa, according to the WRF model.

  13. Very-short-term wind power prediction by a hybrid model with single- and multi-step approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

    2017-05-01

    Very-short-term wind power prediction (VSTWPP) has played an essential role for the operation of electric power systems. This paper aims at improving and applying a hybrid method of VSTWPP based on historical data. The hybrid method is combined by multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), which is intended for reducing prediction errors. The predicted values are obtained through two sub-processes:1) transform the time-series data of actual wind power into the power ratio, and then predict the power ratio;2) use the predicted power ratio to predict the wind power. Besides, the proposed method can include two prediction approaches: single-step prediction (SSP) and multi-step prediction (MSP). WPP is tested comparatively by auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model from the predicted values and errors. The validity of the proposed hybrid method is confirmed in terms of error analysis by using probability density function (PDF), mean absolute percent error (MAPE) and means square error (MSE). Meanwhile, comparison of the correlation coefficients between the actual values and the predicted values for different prediction times and window has confirmed that MSP approach by using the hybrid model is the most accurate while comparing to SSP approach and ARMA. The MLR&LS is accurate and promising for solving problems in WPP.

  14. Predicting Bird and Bat Fatality Risk at Wind Farms and Proposed Wind Farm Sites Using Acoustic-Ultrasonic Recorders

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This project has three objectives: (1) evaluate the ability of dual acoustic-ultrasonic recorders to capture nocturnal calls of birds and bats at wind power sites;...

  15. A Large Eddy Simulation to determine the effect of trees on wind and turbulence over a suburban surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egli, P. E.; Giometto, M. G.; Tooke, T. R.; Krayenhoff, S.; Christen, A.; Parlange, M. B.

    2014-12-01

    Robust modeling of flow and turbulence within and over urban canopies is required to properly predict air pollution and dispersion in cities. Trees are an integral part of the urban landscape. In many suburban neighbourhoods, tree cover is 10 to 30% and trees are often taller than buildings. Effects of trees on drag, mean wind and turbulence in cities are not accounted for in current weather, air pollution and dispersion models. Our goal is to use high-resolution Large Eddy Simulations (LES) over a realistic urban canopy to determine the effects of trees on drag, mean wind and turbulence in the urban roughness sublayer (RSL). The simulated area is part of the Sunset-Neighbourhood in Vancouver, Canada. In this area, long-term wind and turbulence measurements are available from instruments on a 28m-tall tower. Further, a three-dimensional point cloud was captured from high precision airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and analyzed to represent the structural characteristics of both buildings and trees at high spatial resolution. Trees are described by location-specific leaf area density (LAD) profiles. LES simulations are performed over a 512 x 512m characteristic subset of the city that contains the tower location and predominant source area. In the LES, buildings are accounted for with an immersed boundary method, adopting a zero level-set distance function to localize the surface, whereas drag forces from trees are parametrized as a function of the height-dependent LAD. Spectra of streamwise and vertical velocity components compare well between tower data and the model data, confirming the good performance of LES in simulations of flow over fully rough surfaces. We show how the presence of trees impacts mean velocity and computed momentum flux profiles; they significantly decrease dispersive terms in the bulk of the flow. The impact of trees on integral length scales in the flow is discussed.

  16. Strong winter monsoon wind causes surface cooling over India and China in the Late Miocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Tang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Modern Asian winter monsoon characterised by the strong northwesterly wind in East Asia and northeasterly wind in South Asia, has a great impact on the surface temperature of the Asian continent. Its outbreak can result in significant cooling of the monsoon region. However, it is still unclear whether such an impact existed and is detectable in the deep past. In this study, we use temperature reconstructions from plant and mammal fossil data together with climate model results to examine the co-evolution of surface temperature and winter monsoon in the Late Miocene (11–5 Ma, when a significant change of the Asian monsoon system occurred. We find that a stronger-than-present winter monsoon wind might have existed in the Late Miocene due to the lower Asian orography, particularly the northern Tibetan Plateau and the mountains north of it. This can lead to a pronounced cooling in southern China and northern India, which counteracts the generally warmer conditions in the Late Miocene compared to present. The Late Miocene strong winter monsoon was characterised by a marked westerly component and primarily caused by a pressure anomaly between the Tibetan Plateau and Northern Eurasia, rather than by the gradient between the Siberian High and the Aleutian Low. As a result, the close association of surface temperature with winter monsoon strength on inter-annual scale as observed at present may not have established in the Late Miocene.

  17. Errors of five-day mean surface wind and temperature conditions due to inadequate sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legler, David M.

    1991-01-01

    Surface meteorological reports of wind components, wind speed, air temperature, and sea-surface temperature from buoys located in equatorial and midlatitude regions are used in a simulation of random sampling to determine errors of the calculated means due to inadequate sampling. Subsampling the data with several different sample sizes leads to estimates of the accuracy of the subsampled means. The number N of random observations needed to compute mean winds with chosen accuracies of 0.5 (N sub 0.5) and 1.0 (N sub 1,0) m/s and mean air and sea surface temperatures with chosen accuracies of 0.1 (N sub 0.1) and 0.2 (N sub 0.2) C were calculated for each 5-day and 30-day period in the buoy datasets. Mean values of N for the various accuracies and datasets are given. A second-order polynomial relation is established between N and the variability of the data record. This relationship demonstrates that for the same accuracy, N increases as the variability of the data record increases. The relationship is also independent of the data source. Volunteer-observing ship data do not satisfy the recommended minimum number of observations for obtaining 0.5 m/s and 0.2 C accuracy for most locations. The effect of having remotely sensed data is discussed.

  18. Prediction of short-term distributions of load extremes of offshore wind turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ying-guang

    2016-12-01

    This paper proposes a new methodology to select an optimal threshold level to be used in the peak over threshold (POT) method for the prediction of short-term distributions of load extremes of offshore wind turbines. Such an optimal threshold level is found based on the estimation of the variance-to-mean ratio for the occurrence of peak values, which characterizes the Poisson assumption. A generalized Pareto distribution is then fitted to the extracted peaks over the optimal threshold level and the distribution parameters are estimated by the method of the maximum spacing estimation. This methodology is applied to estimate the short-term distributions of load extremes of the blade bending moment and the tower base bending moment at the mudline of a monopile-supported 5MW offshore wind turbine as an example. The accuracy of the POT method using the optimal threshold level is shown to be better, in terms of the distribution fitting, than that of the POT methods using empirical threshold levels. The comparisons among the short-term extreme response values predicted by using the POT method with the optimal threshold levels and with the empirical threshold levels and by using direct simulation results further substantiate the validity of the proposed new methodology.

  19. Prediction of short-term distributions of load extremes of offshore wind turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ying-guang

    2016-09-01

    This paper proposes a new methodology to select an optimal threshold level to be used in the peak over threshold (POT) method for the prediction of short-term distributions of load extremes of offshore wind turbines. Such an optimal threshold level is found based on the estimation of the variance-to-mean ratio for the occurrence of peak values, which characterizes the Poisson assumption. A generalized Pareto distribution is then fitted to the extracted peaks over the optimal threshold level and the distribution parameters are estimated by the method of the maximum spacing estimation. This methodology is applied to estimate the short-term distributions of load extremes of the blade bending moment and the tower base bending moment at the mudline of a monopile-supported 5MW offshore wind turbine as an example. The accuracy of the POT method using the optimal threshold level is shown to be better, in terms of the distribution fitting, than that of the POT methods using empirical threshold levels. The comparisons among the short-term extreme response values predicted by using the POT method with the optimal threshold levels and with the empirical threshold levels and by using direct simulation results further substantiate the validity of the proposed new methodology.

  20. A Predictive Power Control Strategy for DFIGs Based on a Wind Energy Converter System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoliang Yang

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A feasible control strategy is proposed to control a doubly fed induction generator based on the wind energy converter system (DFIG-WECS. The main aim is to enhance the steady state and dynamic performance under the condition of the parameter perturbations and external disturbances and to satisfy the stator power response of the system. Within the proposed control method, the control scheme for the rotor side converter (RSC is developed on the model predictive control. Firstly, the self-adaptive reference trajectory is established from the deduced discrete state-space equation of the generator. Then, the rotor voltage is calculated by minimizing the global performance index under the current prediction steps at the sampling instant. Through the control scheme for the grid side converter (GSC and wind turbine, we have re-applied the conventional control. The effectiveness of the proposed control strategy is verified via time domain simulation of a 150 kW-575 V DFIG-WECS using Matlab/Simulink. The simulation result shows that the control of the DFIG with the proposed control method can enhance the steady and dynamic response capability better than the conventional ones when the system faces errors due to the parameter perturbations, external disturbances and the rotor speed.

  1. Effects of surface current-wind interaction in an eddy-rich general ocean circulation simulation of the Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietze, Heiner; Löptien, Ulrike

    2016-08-01

    Deoxygenation in the Baltic Sea endangers fish yields and favours noxious algal blooms. Yet, vertical transport processes ventilating the oxygen-deprived waters at depth and replenishing nutrient-deprived surface waters (thereby fuelling export of organic matter to depth) are not comprehensively understood. Here, we investigate the effects of the interaction between surface currents and winds on upwelling in an eddy-rich general ocean circulation model of the Baltic Sea. Contrary to expectations we find that accounting for current-wind effects inhibits the overall vertical exchange between oxygenated surface waters and oxygen-deprived water at depth. At major upwelling sites, however (e.g. off the southern coast of Sweden and Finland) the reverse holds: the interaction between topographically steered surface currents with winds blowing over the sea results in a climatological sea surface temperature cooling of 0.5 K. This implies that current-wind effects drive substantial local upwelling of cold and nutrient-replete waters.

  2. Solar Wind Access to Lunar Polar Craters: Feedback Between Surface Charging and Plasma Expansion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, M. I.; Farrell, W. M.; Stubbs, T. J.; Halekas, J. S.; Jackson, T. L.

    2011-01-01

    Determining the plasma environment within permanently shadowed lunar craters is critical to understanding local processes such as surface charging, electrostatic dust transport, volatile sequestration, and space weathering. In order to investigate the nature of this plasma environment, the first two-dimensional kinetic simulations of solar wind expansion into a lunar crater with a self-consistent plasma-surface interaction have been undertaken. The present results reveal how the plasma expansion into a crater couples with the electrically-charged lunar surface to produce a quasi-steady wake structure. In particular, there is a negative feedback between surface charging and ambipolar wake potential that allows an equilibrium to be achieved, with secondary electron emission strongly moderating the process. A range of secondary electron yields is explored, and two distinct limits are highlighted in which either surface charging or ambipoiar expansion is responsible for determining the overall wake structure.

  3. Superhydrophobic wind turbine blade surfaces obtained by a simple deposition of silica nanoparticles embedded in epoxy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmouch, Rachid; Ross, Guy G.

    2010-11-01

    Samples of wind turbine blade surface have been covered with a superhydrophobic coating made of silica nanoparticles embedded in commercial epoxy paint. The superhydrophobic surfaces have a water contact angle around 152°, a hysteresis less than 2° and a water drop sliding angle around 0.5°. These surfaces are water repellent so that water drops cannot remain motionless on the surface. Examination of coated and uncoated surfaces with scanning electron microscopy and atomic force microscopy, together with measurements of water contact angles, indicates that the air trapped in the cavity enhances the water repellency similarly to the lotus leaf effect. Moreover, this new coating is stable under UVC irradiation and water pouring. The production of this nanoscale coating film being simple and low cost, it can be considered as a suitable candidate for water protection of different outdoor structures.

  4. Superhydrophobic wind turbine blade surfaces obtained by a simple deposition of silica nanoparticles embedded in epoxy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karmouch, Rachid, E-mail: karmouch@emt.inrs.ca [INRS-Centre Energie Materiaux Telecommunications, 1650 Boulevard Lionel-Boulet, Varennes, Quebec J3X 1S2 (Canada); Ross, Guy G. [INRS-Centre Energie Materiaux Telecommunications, 1650 Boulevard Lionel-Boulet, Varennes, Quebec J3X 1S2 (Canada)

    2010-11-15

    Samples of wind turbine blade surface have been covered with a superhydrophobic coating made of silica nanoparticles embedded in commercial epoxy paint. The superhydrophobic surfaces have a water contact angle around 152{sup o}, a hysteresis less than 2{sup o} and a water drop sliding angle around 0.5{sup o}. These surfaces are water repellent so that water drops cannot remain motionless on the surface. Examination of coated and uncoated surfaces with scanning electron microscopy and atomic force microscopy, together with measurements of water contact angles, indicates that the air trapped in the cavity enhances the water repellency similarly to the lotus leaf effect. Moreover, this new coating is stable under UVC irradiation and water pouring. The production of this nanoscale coating film being simple and low cost, it can be considered as a suitable candidate for water protection of different outdoor structures.

  5. A Ka-Band Backscatter Model Function and an Algorithm for Measurement of the Wind Vector Over the Sea Surface

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nekrasov, A.; Hoogeboom, P.

    2005-01-01

    A Ka-band backscatter model and an algorithm for measurement of the wind speed and direction over the sea surface by a frequency-modulated continous-wave radar demonstrator system operated in scatterometer mode have been developed. To evaluate the proposed algorithm, a simulation of the wind vector

  6. The use of wind fields in a land use regression model to predict air pollution concentrations for health exposure studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arain, M. A.; Blair, R.; Finkelstein, N.; Brook, J. R.; Sahsuvaroglu, T.; Beckerman, B.; Zhang, L.; Jerrett, M.

    A methodology is developed to include wind flow effects in land use regression (LUR) models for predicting nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) concentrations for health exposure studies. NO 2 is widely used in health studies as an indicator of traffic-generated air pollution in urban areas. Incorporation of high-resolution interpolated observed wind direction from a network of 38 weather stations in a LUR model improved NO 2 concentration estimates in densely populated, high traffic and industrial/business areas in Toronto-Hamilton urban airshed (THUA) of Ontario, Canada. These small-area variations in air pollution concentrations that are probably more important for health exposure studies may not be detected by sparse continuous air pollution monitoring network or conventional interpolation methods. Observed wind fields were also compared with wind fields generated by Global Environmental Multiscale-High resolution Model Application Project (GEM-HiMAP) to explore the feasibility of using regional weather forecasting model simulated wind fields in LUR models when observed data are either sparse or not available. While GEM-HiMAP predicted wind fields well at large scales, it was unable to resolve wind flow patterns at smaller scales. These results suggest caution and careful evaluation of regional weather forecasting model simulated wind fields before incorporating into human exposure models for health studies. This study has demonstrated that wind fields may be integrated into the land use regression framework. Such integration has a discernable influence on both the overall model prediction and perhaps more importantly for health effects assessment on the relative spatial distribution of traffic pollution throughout the THUA. Methodology developed in this study may be applied in other large urban areas across the world.

  7. Surface mixed layer deepening through wind shear alignment in a seasonally stratified shallow sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lincoln, B. J.; Rippeth, T. P.; Simpson, J. H.

    2016-08-01

    Inertial oscillations are a ubiquitous feature of the surface ocean. Here we combine new observations with a numerical model to investigate the role of inertial oscillations in driving deepening of the surface mixed layer in a seasonally stratified sea. Observations of temperature and current structure, from a mooring in the Western Irish Sea, reveal episodes of strong currents (>0.3 m s-1) lasting several days, resulting in enhanced shear across the thermocline. While the episodes of strong currents are coincident with windy periods, the variance in the shear is not directly related to the wind stress. The shear varies on a subinertial time scale with the formation of shear maxima lasting several hours occurring at the local inertial period of 14.85 h. These shear maxima coincide with the orientation of the surface current being at an angle of approximately 90° to the right of the wind direction. Observations of the water column structure during windy periods reveal deepening of the surface mixed layer in a series of steps which coincide with a period of enhanced shear. During the periods of enhanced shear gradient, Richardson number estimates indicate Ri-1 ≥ 4 at the base of the surface mixed layer, implying the deepening as a result of shear instability. A one-dimensional vertical exchange model successfully reproduces the magnitude and phase of the shear spikes as well as the step-like deepening. The observations and model results therefore identify the role of wind shear alignment as a key entrainment mechanism driving surface mixed layer deepening in a shallow, seasonally stratified sea.

  8. Towards more accurate wind and solar power prediction by improving NWP model physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiner, Andrea; Köhler, Carmen; von Schumann, Jonas; Ritter, Bodo

    2014-05-01

    The growing importance and successive expansion of renewable energies raise new challenges for decision makers, economists, transmission system operators, scientists and many more. In this interdisciplinary field, the role of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is to reduce the errors and provide an a priori estimate of remaining uncertainties associated with the large share of weather-dependent power sources. For this purpose it is essential to optimize NWP model forecasts with respect to those prognostic variables which are relevant for wind and solar power plants. An improved weather forecast serves as the basis for a sophisticated power forecasts. Consequently, a well-timed energy trading on the stock market, and electrical grid stability can be maintained. The German Weather Service (DWD) currently is involved with two projects concerning research in the field of renewable energy, namely ORKA*) and EWeLiNE**). Whereas the latter is in collaboration with the Fraunhofer Institute (IWES), the project ORKA is led by energy & meteo systems (emsys). Both cooperate with German transmission system operators. The goal of the projects is to improve wind and photovoltaic (PV) power forecasts by combining optimized NWP and enhanced power forecast models. In this context, the German Weather Service aims to improve its model system, including the ensemble forecasting system, by working on data assimilation, model physics and statistical post processing. This presentation is focused on the identification of critical weather situations and the associated errors in the German regional NWP model COSMO-DE. First steps leading to improved physical parameterization schemes within the NWP-model are presented. Wind mast measurements reaching up to 200 m height above ground are used for the estimation of the (NWP) wind forecast error at heights relevant for wind energy plants. One particular problem is the daily cycle in wind speed. The transition from stable stratification during

  9. A wind tunnel study of flows over idealised urban surfaces with roughness sublayer corrections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Yat-Kiu; Liu, Chun-Ho

    2016-08-01

    Dynamics in the roughness (RSLs) and inertial (ISLs) sublayers in the turbulent boundary layers (TBLs) over idealised urban surfaces are investigated analytically and experimentally. In this paper, we derive an analytical solution to the mean velocity profile, which is a continuous function applicable to both RSL and ISL, over rough surfaces in isothermal conditions. Afterwards, a modified mixing-length model for RSL/ISL transport is developed that elucidates how surface roughness affects the turbulence motions. A series of wind tunnel experiments are conducted to measure the vertical profiles of mean and fluctuating velocities, together with momentum flux over various configurations of surface-mounted ribs in cross flows using hot-wire anemometry (HWA). The analytical solution agrees well with the wind tunnel result that improves the estimate to mean velocity profile over urban surfaces and TBL dynamics as well. The thicknesses of RSL and ISL are calculated by monitoring the convergence/divergence between the temporally averaged and spatio-temporally averaged profiles of momentum flux. It is found that the height of RSL/ISL interface is a function of surface roughness. Examining the direct, physical influence of roughness elements on near-surface RSL flows reveals that the TBL flows over rough surfaces exhibit turbulence motions of two different length scales which are functions of the RSL and ISL structure. Conclusively, given a TBL, the rougher the surface, the higher is the RSL intruding upward that would thinner the ISL up to 50 %. Therefore, the conventional ISL log-law approximation to TBL flows over urban surfaces should be applied with caution.

  10. Near surface spatially averaged air temperature and wind speed determined by acoustic travel time tomography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armin Raabe

    2001-03-01

    Full Text Available Acoustic travel time tomography is presented as a possibility for remote monitoring of near surface airtemperature and wind fields. This technique provides line-averaged effective sound speeds changing with temporally and spatially variable air temperature and wind vector. The effective sound speed is derived from the travel times of sound signals which propagate at defined paths between different acoustic sources and receivers. Starting with the travel time data a tomographic algorithm (Simultaneous Iterative Reconstruction Technique, SIRT is used to calculate area-averaged air temperature and wind speed. The accuracy of the experimental method and the tomographic inversion algorithm is exemplarily demonstrated for one day without remarkable differences in the horizontal temperature field, determined by independent in situ measurements at different points within the measuring field. The differences between the conventionally determined air temperature (point measurement and the air temperature determined by tomography (area-averaged measurement representative for the area of the measuring field 200m x 260m were below 0.5 K for an average of 10 minutes. The differences obtained between the wind speed measured at a meteorological mast and calculated from acoustic measurements are not higher than 0.5 ms-1 for the same averaging time. The tomographically determined area-averaged distribution of air temperature (resolution 50 m x 50 m can be used to estimate the horizontal gradient of air temperature as a pre-condition to detect horizontal turbulent fluxes of sensible heat.

  11. Statistical parameters of the spatiotemporal variability of the wind direction in the surface layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shishov, E. A.; Koprov, B. M.; Koprov, V. M.

    2017-01-01

    Multipoint measurements of wind direction were carried out during the expedition of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IPA RAS), in Tsimlyansk in 2012. Spatial correlation functions for the transverse direction and temporal correlation functions for the longitudinal direction are plotted under stable and unstable stratification of the atmosphere. The longitudinal correlation radius is much higher than the transverse one, and radii in daytime realizations are larger than in nighttime. To determine the stratification conditions, an ultrasonic anemometer-thermometer was used. Autospectra of wind direction fluctuations were plotted. They include long segments of power dependence on the frequency. The spectral correlation coefficients of variations in the wind direction versus intersensor distance in the transverse direction are also calculated. A set of fast-response thermometers was used in the experiment. They allowed temperature mapping, i.e., plotting the time variations in the isothermal surface altitude. That analysis was also applied to visualization of the spatiotemporal variability of wind direction. The resulting data were used for planning the helicity measurements in the Tsimlyansk expedition in 2014.

  12. Variability in the coupling between sea surface temperature and wind stress in the global coastal ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuntao; Castelao, Renato M.

    2016-08-01

    Mesoscale ocean-atmosphere interaction between sea surface temperature (SST) and wind stress throughout the global coastal ocean was investigated using 7 years of satellite observations. Coupling coefficients between crosswind SST gradients and wind stress curl and between downwind SST gradients and wind stress divergence were used to quantify spatial and temporal variability in the strength of the interaction. The use of a consistent data set and standardized methods allow for direct comparisons between coupling coefficients in the different coastal regions. The analysis reveals that strong coupling is observed in many mid-latitude regions throughout the world, especially in regions with strong fronts like Eastern and Western Boundary Currents. Most upwelling regions in Eastern Boundary Currents are characterized by strong seasonal variability in the strength of the coupling, which generally peaks during summer in mid latitudes and during winter at low latitudes. Seasonal variability in coastal regions along Western Boundary Currents is comparatively smaller. Intraseasonal variability is especially important in regions of strong eddy activity (e.g., Western Boundary Currents), being particularly relevant for the coupling between crosswind SST gradients and wind stress curl. Results from the analysis can be used to guide modeling studies, since it allows for the a priori identification of regions in which regional models need to properly represent the ocean-atmosphere interaction to accurately represent local variability.

  13. On alpha stable distribution of wind driven water surface wave slope

    CERN Document Server

    Joelson, Maminirina

    2008-01-01

    We propose a new formulation of the probability distribution function of wind driven water surface slope with an $\\alpha$-stable distribution probability. The mathematical formulation of the probability distribution function is given under an integral formulation. Application to represent the probability of time slope data from laboratory experiments is carried out with satisfactory results. We compare also the $\\alpha$-stable model of the water surface slopes with the Gram-Charlier development and the non-Gaussian model of Liu et al\\cite{Liu}. Discussions and conclusions are conducted on the basis of the data fit results and the model analysis comparison.

  14. Wind tunnel experiment of drag of isolated tree models in surface boundary layer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    For very sparse tree land individual tree was the basic element of interaction between atmosphere and the surface. Drag of isolated tree was preliminary aerodynamic index for analyzing the atmospheric boundary layer of this kind of surface. A simple pendulum method was designed and carried out in wind tunnel to measure drag of isolated tree models according to balance law of moment of force. The method was easy to conduct and with small error. The results showed that the drag and drag coefficient of isolated tree increased with decreasing of its permeability or porosity. Relationship between drag coefficient and permeability of isolated tree empirically was expressed by quadric curve.

  15. Specific features of heat transfer on the external surface of smoke stacks blown by wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maneev, A. P.; Terekhov, V. I.

    2015-03-01

    Results of a full-scale experiment on studying heat transfer on the surface of a reinforced-concrete smoke stack blown by wind at the value of Reynolds number Re = 1.05 × 107 are presented. Comparison of the experimental results with the experimental data obtained previously by other researchers under laboratory conditions at Re cylinder in a transcritical streamlining mode. The data obtained in the present study open the possibility to estimate the average values of heat transfer coefficient on the surface of smoke stacks in a flow of atmospheric air at 4 × 106 < Re < 107.

  16. Predicting the arrival of high-speed solar wind streams at Earth using the STEREO Heliospheric Imagers

    OpenAIRE

    Davis, Chris J.; Davies, J. A.; Owens, Matt; Lockwood, Mike

    2012-01-01

    High-speed solar wind streams modify the Earth's geomagnetic environment, perturbing the ionosphere, modulating the flux of cosmic rays into the Earth atmosphere, and triggering substorms. Such activity can affect modern technological systems. To investigate the potential for predicting the arrival of such streams at Earth, images taken by the Heliospheric Imager (HI) on the STEREO-A spacecraft have been used to identify the onsets of high-speed solar wind streams from observations of regions...

  17. A probability index for surface zonda wind occurrence at Mendoza city through vertical sounding principal components analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otero, Federico; Norte, Federico; Araneo, Diego

    2016-10-01

    The aim of this work is to obtain an index for predicting the probability of occurrence of zonda event at surface level from sounding data at Mendoza city, Argentine. To accomplish this goal, surface zonda wind events were previously found with an objective classification method (OCM) only considering the surface station values. Once obtained the dates and the onset time of each event, the prior closest sounding for each event was taken to realize a principal component analysis (PCA) that is used to identify the leading patterns of the vertical structure of the atmosphere previously to a zonda wind event. These components were used to construct the index model. For the PCA an entry matrix of temperature (T) and dew point temperature (Td) anomalies for the standard levels between 850 and 300 hPa was build. The analysis yielded six significant components with a 94 % of the variance explained and the leading patterns of favorable weather conditions for the development of the phenomenon were obtained. A zonda/non-zonda indicator c can be estimated by a logistic multiple regressions depending on the PCA component loadings, determining a zonda probability index widehat{c} calculable from T and Td profiles and it depends on the climatological features of the region. The index showed 74.7 % efficiency. The same analysis was performed by adding surface values of T and Td from Mendoza Aero station increasing the index efficiency to 87.8 %. The results revealed four significantly correlated PCs with a major improvement in differentiating zonda cases and a reducing of the uncertainty interval.

  18. The climate influence of anthropogenic land-use changes on near-surface wind energy potential in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Yan; WANG Yuan; CHU HuiYun; TANG JianPing

    2008-01-01

    There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on wind energy in China. The climate change of near-surface wind energy potential in China under the background of global warming and its association with anthropogenic land-use changes are investigated by calculating the difference in surface wind speeds between the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the observations since the re-analysis dataset contains the influence of large-scale climate changes due to greenhouse gases, it is less sensitive to regional surface processes associated with land types. The surface wind data in this study consist of long-tarm observations from 604 Chinese Roution Meteorological Stations and theNCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1960-1999. The results suggest that the observed mean wind speeds significantly weakened and the near-surface wind power trended downward due to urbanization and other land-use changes in the last 40 years. The mean wind energy weakened by -3.84 W·m-2 per decade due to the influence of anthropogenic land-use change, which is close to the observed climate change (-4.51 W·m-2/10 a).

  19. Twenty-four hour predictions of the solar wind speed peaks by the probability distribution function model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bussy-Virat, C. D.; Ridley, A. J.

    2016-10-01

    Abrupt transitions from slow to fast solar wind represent a concern for the space weather forecasting community. They may cause geomagnetic storms that can eventually affect systems in orbit and on the ground. Therefore, the probability distribution function (PDF) model was improved to predict enhancements in the solar wind speed. New probability distribution functions allow for the prediction of the peak amplitude and the time to the peak while providing an interval of uncertainty on the prediction. It was found that 60% of the positive predictions were correct, while 91% of the negative predictions were correct, and 20% to 33% of the peaks in the speed were found by the model. This represents a considerable improvement upon the first version of the PDF model. A direct comparison with the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model shows that the PDF model is quite similar, except that it leads to fewer false positive predictions and misses fewer events, especially when the peak reaches very high speeds.

  20. Seasonal predictability of sea surface temperature anomalies over the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension: Low in summer and high in winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yujie; Duan, Wansuo; Rong, Xinyao

    2016-09-01

    The seasonal predictability of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) is explored by performing perfect model predictability experiments from the viewpoint of initial error growth in a global coupled model. It is found that prediction errors of KOE-SSTA always increase in the boreal summer and decrease in the boreal winter. This leads to smaller (larger) prediction errors and higher (lower) prediction skills in boreal winter (summer). This seasonal characteristic of the KOE-SSTA error growth implies a season-dependent predictability that is lower in summer and higher in winter. The mechanism responsible for error growth associated with seasonal predictability is also explored. The error increase in summer and error decrease in winter in the KOE-SSTA are both largely attributed to the seasonal evolution of latent heat flux error and mean temperature advection by vertical current error in the KOE region, both of which are forced by the prediction error of 1 month leading zonal wind stress per unit mass for the mixed layer over the KOE region. The shallowest (deepest) mixed layer in summer (winter) amplifies (reduces) the forcing of zonal wind stress errors on the error growth of KOE-SSTA, thereby causing the seasonal evolution of prediction errors of KOE-SSTA and ultimately resulting in the season-dependent predictability of the KOE-SSTA, i.e., low in summer and high in winter.