Warming can boost denitrification disproportionately due to altered oxygen dynamics.

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Annelies J Veraart

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Global warming and the alteration of the global nitrogen cycle are major anthropogenic threats to the environment. Denitrification, the biological conversion of nitrate to gaseous nitrogen, removes a substantial fraction of the nitrogen from aquatic ecosystems, and can therefore help to reduce eutrophication effects. However, potential responses of denitrification to warming are poorly understood. Although several studies have reported increased denitrification rates with rising temperature, the impact of temperature on denitrification seems to vary widely between systems. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We explored the effects of warming on denitrification rates using microcosm experiments, field measurements and a simple model approach. Our results suggest that a three degree temperature rise will double denitrification rates. By performing experiments at fixed oxygen concentrations as well as with oxygen concentrations varying freely with temperature, we demonstrate that this strong temperature dependence of denitrification can be explained by a systematic decrease of oxygen concentrations with rising temperature. Warming decreases oxygen concentrations due to reduced solubility, and more importantly, because respiration rates rise more steeply with temperature than photosynthesis. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results show that denitrification rates in aquatic ecosystems are strongly temperature dependent, and that this is amplified by the temperature dependencies of photosynthesis and respiration. Our results illustrate the broader phenomenon that coupling of temperature dependent reactions may in some situations strongly alter overall effects of temperature on ecological processes.

Warming Effects on Enzyme Activities are Predominant in Sub-surface Soils of an Arctic Tundra Ecosystem over 6-Year Field Manipulation

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Kang, H.; Seo, J.; Kim, M.; Jung, J. Y.; Lee, Y. K.

2017-12-01

Arctic tundra ecosystems are of great importance because they store a large amount of carbon as un-decomposed organic matter. Global climate change is expected to affect enzyme activities and heterotrophic respiration in Arctic soils, which may accelerate greenhouse gas (GHG) emission through positive biological feedbacks. Unlike laboratory-based incubation experiments, field measurements often show different warming effects on decomposition of organic carbon and releases of GHGs. In the present study, we conducted a field-based warming experiment in Cambridge Bay, Canada (69°07'48″N, 105°03'36″W) by employing passive chambers during growing seasons over 6 years. A suite of enzyme activities (ß-glucosidase, cellobiohydrolase, N-acetylglucosaminidase, leucine aminopeptidase and phenol oxidase), microbial community structure (NGS), microbial abundances (gene copy numbers of bacteria and fungi), and soil chemical properties have been monitored in two depths (0-5 cm and 5-10 cm) of tundra soils, which were exposed to four different treatments (`control', `warming-only', `water-addition only', and both `warming and water-addition'). Phenol oxidase activity increased substantially, and bacterial community structure and abundance changed in the early stage (after 1 year's warming manipulation), but these changes disappeared afterwards. Most hydrolases were enhanced in surface soils by `water-addition only' over the period. However, the long-term effects of warming appeared in sub-surface soils where both `warming only' and `warming and water addition' increased hydrolase activities. Overall results of this study indicate that the warming effects on enzyme activities in surface soils are only short-term (phenol oxidase) or masked by water-limitation (hydrolases). However, hydrolases activities in sub-surface soils are more strongly enhanced than surface soils by warming, probably due to the lack of water limitation. Meanwhile, negative correlations between hydrolase

Ocean Heat Uptake Slows 21st Century Surface Warming Driven by Extratropical Cloud Feedbacks

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Frey, W.; Maroon, E.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Kay, J. E.

2017-12-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the warming in response to instantaneously doubled CO2, has long been used to compare climate models. In many models, ECS is well correlated with warming produced by transient forcing experiments. Modifications to cloud phase at high latitudes in a state-of-the-art climate model, the Community Earth System Model (CESM), produce a large increase in ECS (1.5 K) via extratropical cloud feedbacks. However, only a small surface warming increase occurs in a realistic 21st century simulation including a full-depth dynamic ocean and the "business as usual" RCP8.5 emissions scenario. In fact, the increase in surface warming is only barely above the internal variability-generated range in the CESM Large Ensemble. The small change in 21st century warming is attributed to subpolar ocean heat uptake in both hemispheres. In the Southern Ocean, the mean-state circulation takes up heat while in the North Atlantic a slowdown in circulation acts as a feedback to slow surface warming. These results show the importance of subpolar ocean heat uptake in controlling the pace of warming and demonstrate that ECS cannot be used to reliably infer transient warming when it is driven by extratropical feedbacks.

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.

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Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2013-09-19

Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.

Accelerating Net Terrestrial Carbon Uptake During the Warming Hiatus Due to Reduced Respiration

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Ballantyne, Ashley; Smith, William; Anderegg, William; Kauppi, Pekka; Sarmiento, Jorge; Tans, Pieter; Shevliakova, Elena; Pan, Yude; Poulter, Benjamin; Anav, Alessandro;

The warming trend of ground surface temperature in the Choshui Alluvial Fan, western central Taiwan

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Chen, W.; Chang, M.; Chen, J.; Lu, W.; Huang, C. C.; Wang, Y.

2013-12-01

Heat storage in subsurface of the continents forms a fundamental component of the global energy budget and plays an important role in the climate system. Several researches revealed that subsurface temperatures were being increased to 1.8-2.8°C higher in mean ground surface temperature (GST) for some Asian cities where are experiencing a rapid growth of population. Taiwan is a subtropic-tropic island with densely populated in the coastal plains surrounding its mountains. We investigate the subsurface temperature distribution and the borehole temperature-depth profiles by using groundwater monitoring wells in years 2000 and 2010. Our data show that the western central Taiwan plain also has been experiencing a warming trend but with a higher temperatures approximately 3-4 °C of GST during the last 250 yrs. We suggest that the warming were mostly due to the land change to urbanization and agriculture. The current GSTs from our wells are approximately 25.51-26.79 °C which are higher than the current surface air temperature (SAT) of 23.65 °C. Data from Taiwan's weather stations also show 1-1.5 °C higher for the GST than the SAT at neighboring stations. The earth surface heat balance data indicate that GST higher than SAT is reasonable. More researches are needed to evaluate the interaction of GST and SAT, and how a warming GST's impact to the SAT and the climate system of the Earth.

Surface reflectance and conversion efficiency dependence of technologies for mitigating global warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edmonds, Ian [Solartran Pty Ltd., 12 Lentara St, Kenmore, Brisbane 4069 (Australia); Smith, Geoff [Physics and Advanced Materials, University of Technology, Sydney, PO Box 123, Broadway, New South Wales 2007 (Australia)

2011-05-15

A means of assessing the relative impact of different renewable energy technologies on global warming has been developed. All power plants emit thermal energy to the atmosphere. Fossil fuel power plants also emit CO{sub 2} which accumulates in the atmosphere and provides an indirect increase in global warming via the greenhouse effect. A fossil fuel power plant may operate for some time before the global warming due to its CO{sub 2} emission exceeds the warming due to its direct heat emission. When a renewable energy power plant is deployed instead of a fossil fuel power plant there may be a significant time delay before the direct global warming effect is less than the combined direct and indirect global warming effect from an equivalent output coal fired plant - the ''business as usual'' case. Simple expressions are derived to calculate global temperature change as a function of ground reflectance and conversion efficiency for various types of fossil fuelled and renewable energy power plants. These expressions are used to assess the global warming mitigation potential of some proposed Australian renewable energy projects. The application of the expressions is extended to evaluate the deployment in Australia of current and new geo-engineering and carbon sequestration solutions to mitigate global warming. Principal findings are that warming mitigation depends strongly on the solar to electric conversion efficiency of renewable technologies, geo-engineering projects may offer more economic mitigation than renewable energy projects and the mitigation potential of reforestation projects depends strongly on the location of the projects. (author)

Enhanced Surface Warming and Accelerated Snow Melt in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau Induced by Absorbing Aerosols

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Lau, William K.; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lee, Woo-Seop

2010-01-01

Numerical experiments with the NASA finite-volume general circulation model show that heating of the atmosphere by dust and black carbon can lead to widespread enhanced warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and accelerated snow melt in the western TP and Himalayas. During the boreal spring, a thick aerosol layer, composed mainly of dust transported from adjacent deserts and black carbon from local emissions, builds up over the Indo-Gangetic Plain, against the foothills of the Himalaya and the TP. The aerosol layer, which extends from the surface to high elevation (approx.5 km), heats the mid-troposphere by absorbing solar radiation. The heating produces an atmospheric dynamical feedback the so-called elevated-heat-pump (EHP) effect, which increases moisture, cloudiness, and deep convection over northern India, as well as enhancing the rate of snow melt in the Himalayas and TP. The accelerated melting of snow is mostly confined to the western TP, first slowly in early April and then rapidly from early to mid-May. The snow cover remains reduced from mid-May through early June. The accelerated snow melt is accompanied by similar phases of enhanced warming of the atmosphere-land system of the TP, with the atmospheric warming leading the surface warming by several days. Surface energy balance analysis shows that the short-wave and long-wave surface radiative fluxes strongly offset each other, and are largely regulated by the changes in cloudiness and moisture over the TP. The slow melting phase in April is initiated by an effective transfer of sensible heat from a warmer atmosphere to land. The rapid melting phase in May is due to an evaporation-snow-land feedback coupled to an increase in atmospheric moisture over the TP induced by the EHP effect.

Enhanced surface warming and accelerated snow melt in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau induced by absorbing aerosols

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lau, William K M; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Lee, Woo-Seop; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2010-01-01

Numerical experiments with the NASA finite-volume general circulation model show that heating of the atmosphere by dust and black carbon can lead to widespread enhanced warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and accelerated snow melt in the western TP and Himalayas. During the boreal spring, a thick aerosol layer, composed mainly of dust transported from adjacent deserts and black carbon from local emissions, builds up over the Indo-Gangetic Plain, against the foothills of the Himalaya and the TP. The aerosol layer, which extends from the surface to high elevation (∼5 km), heats the mid-troposphere by absorbing solar radiation. The heating produces an atmospheric dynamical feedback-the so-called elevated-heat-pump (EHP) effect, which increases moisture, cloudiness, and deep convection over northern India, as well as enhancing the rate of snow melt in the Himalayas and TP. The accelerated melting of snow is mostly confined to the western TP, first slowly in early April and then rapidly from early to mid-May. The snow cover remains reduced from mid-May through early June. The accelerated snow melt is accompanied by similar phases of enhanced warming of the atmosphere-land system of the TP, with the atmospheric warming leading the surface warming by several days. Surface energy balance analysis shows that the short-wave and long-wave surface radiative fluxes strongly offset each other, and are largely regulated by the changes in cloudiness and moisture over the TP. The slow melting phase in April is initiated by an effective transfer of sensible heat from a warmer atmosphere to land. The rapid melting phase in May is due to an evaporation-snow-land feedback coupled to an increase in atmospheric moisture over the TP induced by the EHP effect.

Observed decreases in the Canadian outdoor skating season due to recent winter warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Damyanov, Nikolay N; Mysak, Lawrence A; Damon Matthews, H

2012-01-01

Global warming has the potential to negatively affect one of Canada’s primary sources of winter recreation: hockey and ice skating on outdoor rinks. Observed changes in winter temperatures in Canada suggest changes in the meteorological conditions required to support the creation and maintenance of outdoor skating rinks; while there have been observed increases in the ice-free period of several natural water bodies, there has been no study of potential trends in the duration of the season supporting the construction of outdoor skating rinks. Here we show that the outdoor skating season (OSS) in Canada has significantly shortened in many regions of the country as a result of changing climate conditions. We first established a meteorological criterion for the beginning, and a proxy for the length of the OSS. We extracted this information from daily maximum temperature observations from 1951 to 2005, and tested it for significant changes over time due to global warming as well as due to changes in patterns of large-scale natural climate variability. We found that many locations have seen a statistically significant decrease in the OSS length, particularly in Southwest and Central Canada. This suggests that future global warming has the potential to significantly compromise the viability of outdoor skating in Canada. (letter)

Observed decreases in the Canadian outdoor skating season due to recent winter warming

Science.gov (United States)

Damyanov, Nikolay N.; Damon Matthews, H.; Mysak, Lawrence A.

2012-03-01

Global warming has the potential to negatively affect one of Canada’s primary sources of winter recreation: hockey and ice skating on outdoor rinks. Observed changes in winter temperatures in Canada suggest changes in the meteorological conditions required to support the creation and maintenance of outdoor skating rinks; while there have been observed increases in the ice-free period of several natural water bodies, there has been no study of potential trends in the duration of the season supporting the construction of outdoor skating rinks. Here we show that the outdoor skating season (OSS) in Canada has significantly shortened in many regions of the country as a result of changing climate conditions. We first established a meteorological criterion for the beginning, and a proxy for the length of the OSS. We extracted this information from daily maximum temperature observations from 1951 to 2005, and tested it for significant changes over time due to global warming as well as due to changes in patterns of large-scale natural climate variability. We found that many locations have seen a statistically significant decrease in the OSS length, particularly in Southwest and Central Canada. This suggests that future global warming has the potential to significantly compromise the viability of outdoor skating in Canada.

Recent warming of lake Kivu.

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Katsev, Sergei; Aaberg, Arthur A; Crowe, Sean A; Hecky, Robert E

2014-01-01

Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

Recent warming of lake Kivu.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergei Katsev

Full Text Available Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

Investigating sea level rise due to global warming in the teaching laboratory using Archimedes’ principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hughes, Stephen; Pearce, Darren

2015-01-01

A teaching laboratory experiment is described that uses Archimedes’ principle to precisely investigate the effect of global warming on the oceans. A large component of sea level rise is due to the increase in the volume of water due to the decrease in water density with increasing temperature. Water close to 0 °C is placed in a beaker and a glass marble hung from an electronic balance immersed in the water. As the water warms, the weight of the marble increases as the water is less buoyant due to the decrease in density. In the experiment performed in this paper a balance with a precision of 0.1 mg was used with a marble 40.0 cm 3 and mass of 99.3 g, yielding water density measurements with an average error of −0.008 ± 0.011%. (paper)

CLIMATE CHANGE. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus.

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Karl, Thomas R; Arguez, Anthony; Huang, Boyin; Lawrimore, Jay H; McMahon, James R; Menne, Matthew J; Peterson, Thomas C; Vose, Russell S; Zhang, Huai-Min

2015-06-26

Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming "hiatus." Here, we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a "slowdown" in the increase of global surface temperature. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Intensified Arctic warming under greenhouse warming by vegetation–atmosphere–sea ice interaction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Linderholm, Hans W; Chen, Deliang; Kim, Baek-Min; Jun, Sang-Yoon

2014-01-01

Observations and modeling studies indicate that enhanced vegetation activities over high latitudes under an elevated CO 2 concentration accelerate surface warming by reducing the surface albedo. In this study, we suggest that vegetation-atmosphere-sea ice interactions over high latitudes can induce an additional amplification of Arctic warming. Our hypothesis is tested by a series of coupled vegetation-climate model simulations under 2xCO 2 environments. The increased vegetation activities over high latitudes under a 2xCO 2 condition induce additional surface warming and turbulent heat fluxes to the atmosphere, which are transported to the Arctic through the atmosphere. This causes additional sea-ice melting and upper-ocean warming during the warm season. As a consequence, the Arctic and high-latitude warming is greatly amplified in the following winter and spring, which further promotes vegetation activities the following year. We conclude that the vegetation-atmosphere-sea ice interaction gives rise to additional positive feedback of the Arctic amplification. (letter)

Projected Increase in Lightning Strikes in the United States Due to Global Warming

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Romps, D. M.; Seeley, J.; Vollaro, D.; Molinari, J.

2014-12-01

Lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained. The lightning flash rate is proposed here to be proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Using observations, the product of CAPE and precipitation is found to explain the majority of variance in the time series of total cloud-to-ground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS) on timescales ranging from diurnal to seasonal. The observations reveal that storms convert the CAPE of water mass to discharged lightning energy with an efficiency of about 1%. This proxy can be applied to global climate models, which provide predictions for the increase in lightning due to global warming. Results from 11 GCMs will be shown.

Longevity of animals under reactive oxygen species stress and disease susceptibility due to global warming.

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Paital, Biswaranjan; Panda, Sumana Kumari; Hati, Akshaya Kumar; Mohanty, Bobllina; Mohapatra, Manoj Kumar; Kanungo, Shyama; Chainy, Gagan Bihari Nityananda

2016-02-26

The world is projected to experience an approximate doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration in the next decades. Rise in atmospheric CO2 level as one of the most important reasons is expected to contribute to raise the mean global temperature 1.4 °C-5.8 °C by that time. A survey from 128 countries speculates that global warming is primarily due to increase in atmospheric CO2 level that is produced mainly by anthropogenic activities. Exposure of animals to high environmental temperatures is mostly accompanied by unwanted acceleration of certain biochemical pathways in their cells. One of such examples is augmentation in generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and subsequent increase in oxidation of lipids, proteins and nucleic acids by ROS. Increase in oxidation of biomolecules leads to a state called as oxidative stress (OS). Finally, the increase in OS condition induces abnormality in physiology of animals under elevated temperature. Exposure of animals to rise in habitat temperature is found to boost the metabolism of animals and a very strong and positive correlation exists between metabolism and levels of ROS and OS. Continuous induction of OS is negatively correlated with survivability and longevity and positively correlated with ageing in animals. Thus, it can be predicted that continuous exposure of animals to acute or gradual rise in habitat temperature due to global warming may induce OS, reduced survivability and longevity in animals in general and poikilotherms in particular. A positive correlation between metabolism and temperature in general and altered O2 consumption at elevated temperature in particular could also increase the risk of experiencing OS in homeotherms. Effects of global warming on longevity of animals through increased risk of protein misfolding and disease susceptibility due to OS as the cause or effects or both also cannot be ignored. Therefore, understanding the physiological impacts of global warming in relation to

Longevity of animals under reactive oxygen species stress and disease susceptibility due to global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Paital, Biswaranjan; Panda, Sumana Kumari; Hati, Akshaya Kumar; Mohanty, Bobllina; Mohapatra, Manoj Kumar; Kanungo, Shyama; Chainy, Gagan Bihari Nityananda

2016-01-01

The world is projected to experience an approximate doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration in the next decades. Rise in atmospheric CO2 level as one of the most important reasons is expected to contribute to raise the mean global temperature 1.4 °C-5.8 °C by that time. A survey from 128 countries speculates that global warming is primarily due to increase in atmospheric CO2 level that is produced mainly by anthropogenic activities. Exposure of animals to high environmental temperatures is mostly accompanied by unwanted acceleration of certain biochemical pathways in their cells. One of such examples is augmentation in generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and subsequent increase in oxidation of lipids, proteins and nucleic acids by ROS. Increase in oxidation of biomolecules leads to a state called as oxidative stress (OS). Finally, the increase in OS condition induces abnormality in physiology of animals under elevated temperature. Exposure of animals to rise in habitat temperature is found to boost the metabolism of animals and a very strong and positive correlation exists between metabolism and levels of ROS and OS. Continuous induction of OS is negatively correlated with survivability and longevity and positively correlated with ageing in animals. Thus, it can be predicted that continuous exposure of animals to acute or gradual rise in habitat temperature due to global warming may induce OS, reduced survivability and longevity in animals in general and poikilotherms in particular. A positive correlation between metabolism and temperature in general and altered O2 consumption at elevated temperature in particular could also increase the risk of experiencing OS in homeotherms. Effects of global warming on longevity of animals through increased risk of protein misfolding and disease susceptibility due to OS as the cause or effects or both also cannot be ignored. Therefore, understanding the physiological impacts of global warming in relation to

Divergent surface and total soil moisture projections under global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Berg, Alexis; Sheffield, Justin; Milly, Paul C.D.

2017-01-01

Land aridity has been projected to increase with global warming. Such projections are mostly based on off-line aridity and drought metrics applied to climate model outputs but also are supported by climate-model projections of decreased surface soil moisture. Here we comprehensively analyze soil moisture projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, including surface, total, and layer-by-layer soil moisture. We identify a robust vertical gradient of projected mean soil moisture changes, with more negative changes near the surface. Some regions of the northern middle to high latitudes exhibit negative annual surface changes but positive total changes. We interpret this behavior in the context of seasonal changes in the surface water budget. This vertical pattern implies that the extensive drying predicted by off-line drought metrics, while consistent with the projected decline in surface soil moisture, will tend to overestimate (negatively) changes in total soil water availability.

Radiative warming of the air observed near a bare-soil surface on calm clear nights

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sang, N.; Kobayahsi, T.

1999-01-01

The radiative flux in the lowest three meters above a bare-soil surface was directly measured on calm nights with little cloud cover. Although divergence of upward radiative flux occurred above 1m, convergence was often observed between 0.2m and 1m all through the night. Almost the same results were obtained for the net flux except that the transitional height between divergence and convergence was some tens of centimeters, which means that radiative warming occurred just above the bare-soil surface during the night. This phenomenon can be explained by postulating that cold air is produced by conduction at the surface of small heat-insulated projections (HIPs) such as soil grains on the ground surface, while the ground releases the heat stored during the day by radiation through the pores between HIPs and warms the air immediately above the surface at night. This “HIP hypothesis” can also account for the so-called “raised minimum (RM)” phenomenon. (author)

Will surface winds weaken in response to global warming?

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Jian; Foltz, Gregory R.; Soden, Brian J.; Huang, Gang; He, Jie; Dong, Changming

2016-12-01

The surface Walker and tropical tropospheric circulations have been inferred to slow down from historical observations and model projections, yet analysis of large-scale surface wind predictions is lacking. Satellite measurements of surface wind speed indicate strengthening trends averaged over the global and tropical oceans that are supported by precipitation and evaporation changes. Here we use corrected anemometer-based observations to show that the surface wind speed has not decreased in the averaged tropical oceans, despite its reduction in the region of the Walker circulation. Historical simulations and future projections for climate change also suggest a near-zero wind speed trend averaged in space, regardless of the Walker cell change. In the tropics, the sea surface temperature pattern effect acts against the large-scale circulation slow-down. For higher latitudes, the surface winds shift poleward along with the eddy-driven mid-latitude westerlies, resulting in a very small contribution to the global change in surface wind speed. Despite its importance for surface wind speed change, the influence of the SST pattern change on global-mean rainfall is insignificant since it cannot substantially alter the global energy balance. As a result, the precipitation response to global warming remains ‘muted’ relative to atmospheric moisture increase. Our results therefore show consistency between projections and observations of surface winds and precipitation.

ENSO Diversity Changes Due To Global Warming In CESM-LE

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Carreric, A.; Dewitte, B.; Guemas, V.

2017-12-01

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is predicted to be modified due to global warming based on the CMIP3 and CMIP5 data bases. In particular the frequency of occurrence of extreme Eastern Pacific El Niño events is to double in the future in response to the increase in green-house gazes. Such forecast relies however on state-of-the-art models that still present mean state biases and do not simulate realistically key features of El Niño events such as its diversity which is related to the existence of at least two types of El Niño events, the Eastern Pacific (EP) El Nino and the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events. Here we take advantage of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (LE) that provides 35 realizations of the climate of the 1920-2100 period with a combination of both natural and anthropogenic climate forcing factors, to explore on the one hand methods to detect changes in ENSO statistics and on the other hand to investigate changes in thermodynamical processes associated to the increase oceanic stratification owed to global warming. The CESM simulates realistically many aspects of the ENSO diversity, in particular the non-linear evolution of the phase space of the first two EOF modes of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific. Based on indices accounting for the two ENSO regimes used in the literature, we show that, although there is no statistically significant (i.e. confidence level > 95%) changes in the occurrence of El Niño types from the present to the future climate, the estimate of the changes is sensitive to the definition of ENSO indices that is used. CESM simulates in particular an increase occurrence of extreme El Niño events that can vary by 28% from one method to the other. It is shown that the seasonal evolution of EP El Niño events is modified from the present to the future climate, with in particular a larger occurrence of events taking place in Austral summer in the warmer climate

Effects of turbulence on warm clouds and precipitation with various aerosol concentrations

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hyunho; Baik, Jong-Jin; Han, Ji-Young

2015-02-01

This study investigates the effects of turbulence-induced collision enhancement (TICE) on warm clouds and precipitation by changing the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration using a two-dimensional dynamic model with bin microphysics. TICE is determined according to the Taylor microscale Reynolds number and the turbulent dissipation rate. The thermodynamic sounding used in this study is characterized by a warm and humid atmosphere with a capping inversion layer, which is suitable for simulating warm clouds. For all CCN concentrations, TICE slightly reduces the liquid water path during the early stage of cloud development and accelerates the onset of surface precipitation. However, changes in the rainwater path and in the amount of surface precipitation that are caused by TICE depend on the CCN concentrations. For high CCN concentrations, the mean cloud drop number concentration (CDNC) decreases and the mean effective radius increases due to TICE. These changes cause an increase in the amount of surface precipitation. However, for low CCN concentrations, changes in the mean CDNC and in the mean effective radius induced by TICE are small and the amount of surface precipitation decreases slightly due to TICE. A decrease in condensation due to the accelerated coalescence between droplets explains the surface precipitation decrease. In addition, an increase in the CCN concentration can lead to an increase in the amount of surface precipitation, and the relationship between the CCN concentration and the amount of surface precipitation is affected by TICE. It is shown that these results depend on the atmospheric relative humidity.

Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

Science.gov (United States)

Salzmann, Marc

2016-06-01

Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K(-1) decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.

Role of Stratospheric Water Vapor in Global Warming from GCM Simulations Constrained by MLS Observation

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Y.; Stek, P. C.; Su, H.; Jiang, J. H.; Livesey, N. J.; Santee, M. L.

2014-12-01

Over the past century, global average surface temperature has warmed by about 0.16°C/decade, largely due to anthropogenic increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases. However, the trend in global surface temperatures has been nearly flat since 2000, raising a question regarding the exploration of the drivers of climate change. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Previous studies suggested that the sudden decrease of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) around 2000 may have contributed to the stall of global warming. Since 2004, the SWV observed by Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on Aura satellite has shown a slow recovery. The role of recent SWV variations in global warming has not been quantified. We employ a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model, the NCAR CESM, to address this issue. It is found that the CESM underestimates the stratospheric water vapor by about 1 ppmv due to limited representations of the stratospheric dynamic and chemical processes important for water vapor variabilities. By nudging the modeled SWV to the MLS observation, we find that increasing SWV by 1 ppmv produces a robust surface warming about 0.2°C in global-mean when the model reaches equilibrium. Conversely, the sudden drop of SWV from 2000 to 2004 would cause a surface cooling about -0.08°C in global-mean. On the other hand, imposing the observed linear trend of SWV based on the 10-year observation of MLS in the CESM yields a rather slow surface warming, about 0.04°C/decade. Our model experiments suggest that SWV contributes positively to the global surface temperature variation, although it may not be the dominant factor that drives the recent global warming hiatus. Additional sensitivity experiments show that the impact of SWV on surface climate is mostly governed by the SWV amount at 100 hPa in the tropics. Furthermore, the atmospheric model simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature (SST) show that the inter-annual variation of SWV follows that of SST

Dynamical Analysis of the Global Warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. A. Tenreiro Machado

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Global warming is a major concern nowadays. Weather conditions are changing, and it seems that human activity is one of the main causes. In fact, since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels has increased the nonnatural emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that absorbs the infrared radiation produced by the reflection of the sunlight on the Earth’s surface, trapping the heat in the atmosphere. Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic, and health aspects of human life. This paper studies the global warming trend in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus, which is a new standpoint in this context. Worldwide distributed meteorological stations and temperature records for the last 100 years are analysed. It is shown that the application of Fourier transforms and power law trend lines leads to an assertive representation of the global warming dynamics and a simpler analysis of its characteristics.

Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen

2018-04-30

The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.

Drylands face potential threat under 2 °C global warming target

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Jianping; Yu, Haipeng; Dai, Aiguo; Wei, Yun; Kang, Litai

2017-06-01

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean surface warming to less than 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. However, we show this target is acceptable only for humid lands, whereas drylands will bear greater warming risks. Over the past century, surface warming over global drylands (1.2-1.3 °C) has been 20-40% higher than that over humid lands (0.8-1.0 °C), while anthropogenic CO2 emissions generated from drylands (~230 Gt) have been only ~30% of those generated from humid lands (~750 Gt). For the twenty-first century, warming of 3.2-4.0 °C (2.4-2.6 °C) over drylands (humid lands) could occur when global warming reaches 2.0 °C, indicating ~44% more warming over drylands than humid lands. Decreased maize yields and runoff, increased long-lasting drought and more favourable conditions for malaria transmission are greatest over drylands if global warming were to rise from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C. Our analyses indicate that ~38% of the world's population living in drylands would suffer the effects of climate change due to emissions primarily from humid lands. If the 1.5 °C warming limit were attained, the mean warming over drylands could be within 3.0 °C therefore it is necessary to keep global warming within 1.5 °C to prevent disastrous effects over drylands.

Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium (SSWC) data set documents the stratospheric, tropospheric, and surface climate impacts of sudden stratospheric warmings. This...

Intensification of Aila (May 2009) due to a warm core eddy in the north Bay of Bengal

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Sadhuram, Y.; Maneesha, K.; Murty, T.V.R.

A very severe cyclonic storm "Aila" hit West Bengal on 26 May 2009. The storm intensified when it encountered with a warm core (SST = 31 degrees C) anti-cyclonic eddy (ACE4) in the north Bay of Bengal. The storm intensity increased by 43 percent due...

Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, X.; Xia, Y.; Yan, Y.; Feng, W.; Huang, F.; Yang, X. Q.

2017-12-01

By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2 concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called "Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the model also show that

STAR FORMATION SUPPRESSION DUE TO JET FEEDBACK IN RADIO GALAXIES WITH SHOCKED WARM MOLECULAR GAS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lanz, Lauranne; Ogle, Patrick M.; Appleton, Philip N.; Alatalo, Katherine

2016-01-01

We present Herschel observations of 22 radio galaxies, selected for the presence of shocked, warm molecular hydrogen emission. We measured and modeled spectral energy distributions in 33 bands from the ultraviolet to the far-infrared to investigate the impact of jet feedback on star formation activity. These galaxies are massive, early-type galaxies with normal gas-to-dust ratios, covering a range of optical and infrared colors. We find that the star formation rate (SFR) is suppressed by a factor of ∼3–6, depending on how molecular gas mass is estimated. We suggest that this suppression is due to the shocks driven by the radio jets injecting turbulence into the interstellar medium (ISM), which also powers the luminous warm H 2 line emission. Approximately 25% of the sample shows suppression by more than a factor of 10. However, the degree of SFR suppression does not correlate with indicators of jet feedback including jet power, diffuse X-ray emission, or intensity of warm molecular H 2 emission, suggesting that while injected turbulence likely impacts star formation, the process is not purely parameterized by the amount of mechanical energy dissipated into the ISM. Radio galaxies with shocked warm molecular gas cover a wide range in SFR–stellar mass space, indicating that these galaxies are in a variety of evolutionary states, from actively star-forming and gas-rich to quiescent and gas-poor. SFR suppression appears to have the largest impact on the evolution of galaxies that are moderately gas-rich.

Detection of Warming Effects Due to Industrialization: An Accumulated Intervention Model with an Application in Pohang, Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Ryoo, S. B.; Moon, S. E.

1995-06-01

Modifications of surface air temperature caused by anthropogenic impacts have received much attention recently because of the heightened interest in climatic change. When an industrial area is constructed, resulting in a large-scale anthropogenic heat source, is it possible to detect the warming effect of the heat source? In this paper, the intensity of warming is estimated in the area of the source. A statistical model is suggested to estimate the warming caused by that anthropogenic heat source. The model used in this study is an accumulated intervention (AI) model that is applied to industrial heat perturbations that occurred in the area. To evaluate the AI model performance, the forecast experiment was carried out with an independent dataset. The data used in this study are the monthly mean temperatures at Pohang, Korea. The AI model was developed based on the data for the 38-year period from 1953 to 1990, and the forecast experiment was carried out with an independent dataset for the 2-year period from 1991 to 1992.

Understanding the tropical warm temperature bias simulated by climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Brient, Florent; Schneider, Tapio

2017-04-01

The state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models have difficulties in representing the observed spatial pattern of surface tempertaure. A majority of them suffers a warm bias in the tropical subsiding regions located over the eastern parts of oceans. These regions are usually covered by low-level clouds scattered from stratus along the coasts to more vertically developed shallow cumulus farther from them. Models usually fail to represent accurately this transition. Here we investigate physical drivers of this warm bias in CMIP5 models through a near-surface energy budget perspective. We show that overestimated solar insolation due to a lack of stratocumulus mostly explains the warm bias. This bias also arises partly from inter-model differences in surface fluxes that could be traced to differences in near-surface relative humidity and air-sea temperature gradient. We investigate the role of the atmosphere in driving surface biases by comparing historical and atmopsheric (AMIP) experiments. We show that some differences in boundary-layer characteristics, mostly those related to cloud fraction and relative humidity, are already present in AMIP experiments and may be the drivers of coupled biases. This gives insights in how models can be improved for better simulations of the tropical climate.

Sea level rise, surface warming, and the weakened buffering ability of South China Sea to strong typhoons in recent decades.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Jingru; Oey, Leo; Xu, F-H; Lin, Y-C

2017-08-07

Each year, a number of typhoons in the western North Pacific pass through the Luzon Strait into South China Sea (SCS). Although the storms remain above a warm open sea, the majority of them weaken due to atmospheric and oceanic environments unfavorable for typhoon intensification in SCS, which therefore serves as a natural buffer that shields the surrounding coasts from potentially more powerful storms. This study examines how this buffer has changed over inter-decadal and longer time scales. We show that the buffer weakens (i.e. greater potential for more powerful typhoons) in negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) years, as well as with sea-level-rise and surface warming, caused primarily by the deepening of the ocean's 26 °C isotherm Z 26 . A new Intensity Change Index is proposed to describe the typhoon intensity change as a function of Z 26 and other environmental variables. In SCS, the new index accounts for as high as 75% of the total variance of typhoon intensity change.

Active body surface warming systems for preventing complications caused by inadvertent perioperative hypothermia in adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Madrid, Eva; Urrútia, Gerard; Roqué i Figuls, Marta; Pardo-Hernandez, Hector; Campos, Juan Manuel; Paniagua, Pilar; Maestre, Luz; Alonso-Coello, Pablo

2016-04-21

Inadvertent perioperative hypothermia is a phenomenon that can occur as a result of the suppression of the central mechanisms of temperature regulation due to anaesthesia, and of prolonged exposure of large surfaces of skin to cold temperatures in operating rooms. Inadvertent perioperative hypothermia has been associated with clinical complications such as surgical site infection and wound-healing delay, increased bleeding or cardiovascular events. One of the most frequently used techniques to prevent inadvertent perioperative hypothermia is active body surface warming systems (ABSW), which generate heat mechanically (heating of air, water or gels) that is transferred to the patient via skin contact. To assess the effectiveness of pre- or intraoperative active body surface warming systems (ABSW), or both, to prevent perioperative complications from unintended hypothermia during surgery in adults. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; Issue 9, 2015); MEDLINE (PubMed) (1964 to October 2015), EMBASE (Ovid) (1980 to October 2015), and CINAHL (Ovid) (1982 to October 2015). We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared an ABSW system aimed at maintaining normothermia perioperatively against a control or against any other ABSW system. Eligible studies also had to include relevant clinical outcomes other than measuring temperature alone. Several authors, by pairs, screened references and determined eligibility, extracted data, and assessed risks of bias. We resolved disagreements by discussion and consensus, with the collaboration of a third author. We included 67 trials with 5438 participants that comprised 79 comparisons. Forty-five RCTs compared ABSW versus control, whereas 18 compared two different types of ABSW, and 10 compared two different techniques to administer the same type of ABSW. Forced-air warming (FAW) was by far the most studied intervention.Trials varied widely regarding whether the interventions were

Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth's energy imbalance.

Science.gov (United States)

Drijfhout, Sybren

2015-10-06

A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15-20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40-50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible.

Forests tend to cool the land surface in the temperate zone: An analysis of the mechanisms controlling radiometric surface temperature change in managed temperate ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Stoy, P. C.; Katul, G. G.; Juang, J.; Siqueira, M. B.; Novick, K. A.; Essery, R.; Dore, S.; Kolb, T. E.; Montes-Helu, M. C.; Scott, R. L.

2010-12-01

Vegetation is an important control on the surface energy balance and thereby surface temperature. Boreal forests and arctic shrubs are thought to warm the land surface by absorbing more radiation than the vegetation they replace. The surface temperatures of tropical forests tend to be cooler than deforested landscapes due to enhanced evapotranspiration. The effects of reforestation on surface temperature change in the temperate zone is less-certain, but recent modeling efforts suggest forests have a global warming effect. We quantified the mechanisms driving radiometric surface changes following landcover changes using paired ecosystem case studies from the Ameriflux database with energy balance models of varying complexity. Results confirm previous findings that deciduous and coniferous forests in the southeastern U.S. are ca. 1 °C cooler than an adjacent field on an annual basis because aerodynamic/ecophysiological cooling of 2-3 °C outweighs an albedo-related warming of stand-replacing ponderosa pine fire was ca. 1 °C warmer than unburned stands because a 1.5 °C aerodynamic warming offset a slight surface cooling due to greater albedo and soil heat flux. An ecosystem dominated by mesquite shrub encroachment was nearly 2 °C warmer than a native grassland ecosystem as aerodynamic and albedo-related warming outweighed a small cooling effect due to changes in soil heat flux. The forested ecosystems in these case studies are documented to have higher carbon uptake than the non-forested systems. Results suggest that temperate forests tend to cool the land surface and suggest that previous model-based findings that forests warm the Earth’s surface globally should be reconsidered.Changes to radiometric surface temperature (K) following changes in vegetation using paired ecosystem case studies C4 grassland and shrub ecosystem surface temperatures were adjusted for differences in air temperature across sites.

Greenhouse Warming Research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Bent Erik

2016-01-01

The changing greenhouse effect caused by natural and anthropogenic causes is explained and efforts to model the behavior of the near-surface constituents of the Earth's land, ocean and atmosphere are discussed. Emissions of various substances and other aspects of human activity influence...... the greenhouse warming, and the impacts of the warming may again impact the wellbeing of human societies. Thus physical modeling of the near-surface ocean-soil-atmosphere system cannot be carried out without an idea of the development of human activities, which is done by scenario analysis. The interactive...

Using global warming potential to compare methane and CO2 emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dufresne, J.L.

2009-01-01

Greenhouse gases affect the planetary heat budget. Any change of their concentration affects this budget and therefore the global mean surface temperature of the Earth. These gases have different radiative properties and different lifetimes in the atmosphere, which prevents any direct comparison of the consequences of their emissions on global warming. Almost twenty years ago, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposed the global warming potential (GWP) as an index to compare the emissions of the various greenhouse gases. In a recent paper, it has been stated that the use of GWP leads to strongly underestimating the global warming due to constant methane emissions compared to that of constant CO 2 emissions. Here we show that it is not really the case. The GWP enables comparisons of global warming due to constant emissions for any prescribed period, 100 years being often used. But this comparison is not universal. For instance, the impact of methane is underestimated at the beginning of the chosen period while the impact of CO 2 is underestimated after this period

Warming and surface ocean acidification over the last deglaciation: implications for foraminiferal assemblages

Science.gov (United States)

Dyez, K. A.; Hoenisch, B.; deMenocal, P. B.

2017-12-01

Although plankton drift with ocean currents, their presence and relative abundance varies across latitudes and environmental seawater conditions (e.g. temperature, pH, salinity). While earlier studies have focused on temperature as the primary factor for determining the regional species composition of planktic foraminiferal communities, evidence has recently been presented that foraminiferal shell thickness varies with ocean pH, and it remains unclear whether ongoing ocean acidification will cause ecological shifts within this plankton group. The transition from the last glacial maximum (LGM; 19,000-23,000 years B.P.) to the late Holocene (0-5,000 years B.P.) was characterized by both warming and acidification of the surface ocean, and thus provides an opportunity to study ecosystem shifts in response to these environmental changes. Here we provide new δ11B, Mg/Ca, and δ18O measurements from a suite of global sediment cores spanning this time range. We use these geochemical data to reconstruct ocean temperature, pH and salinity and pair the new data with previously published analyses of planktic foraminifera assemblages to study the respective effects of ocean warming and acidification on the foraminiferal habitat. At most open-ocean sample locations, our proxies indicate warming and acidification similar to previously published estimates, but in some marginal seas and coastal locations pH changes little between over the glacial termination. At face value, these observations suggest that warming is generally more important for ecosystem changes than acidification, at least over the slow rates of warming and ocean acidification in this time period. While geochemical data collection is being completed, we aim to include these data in an ecological model of foraminiferal habitat preferences.

Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts

Science.gov (United States)

Samaniego, L.; Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Rakovec, O.; Pan, M.; Zink, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Marx, A.

2018-05-01

Anthropogenic warming is anticipated to increase soil moisture drought in the future. However, projections are accompanied by large uncertainty due to varying estimates of future warming. Here, using an ensemble of hydrological and land-surface models, forced with bias-corrected downscaled general circulation model output, we estimate the impacts of 1-3 K global mean temperature increases on soil moisture droughts in Europe. Compared to the 1.5 K Paris target, an increase of 3 K—which represents current projected temperature change—is found to increase drought area by 40% (±24%), affecting up to 42% (±22%) more of the population. Furthermore, an event similar to the 2003 drought is shown to become twice as frequent; thus, due to their increased occurrence, events of this magnitude will no longer be classified as extreme. In the absence of effective mitigation, Europe will therefore face unprecedented increases in soil moisture drought, presenting new challenges for adaptation across the continent.

Development of an Urban Multilayer Radiation Scheme and Its Application to the Urban Surface Warming Potential

Science.gov (United States)

Aoyagi, Toshinori; Takahashi, Shunji

2012-02-01

To investigate how a three-dimensional structure such as an urban canyon can affect urban surface warming, we developed an urban multilayer radiation scheme. The complete consideration of multiple scattering of shortwave and longwave radiation using the radiosity method is an important feature of the present scheme. A brief description of this scheme is presented, followed by evaluations that compare its results with observations of the effective albedo and radiative temperature for urban blocks. Next, we calculate the urban surface warming potential (USWP), defined as the difference between the daily mean radiative temperature of urban surfaces (which are assumed to be black bodies), including their canyon effects and the daily mean temperature of a flat surface with the same material properties, under a radiative equilibrium state. Assuming standard material properties (albedo and emissivity of 0.4 and 0.9, respectively), we studied the sensitivity of the USWP to various aspect ratios of building heights to road widths. The results show that the temporally-averaged surface temperature of an urban area can be higher than that of a flat surface. In addition, we determined the overestimation of the effective temperature of urban surfaces induced by the overestimation of the radiation distribution to the walls when one uses a single-layer scheme for urban block arrays that have a low sky-view factor less than around 0.5.

Trichodesmium blooms and warm-core ocean surface features in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.

Science.gov (United States)

Jyothibabu, R; Karnan, C; Jagadeesan, L; Arunpandi, N; Pandiarajan, R S; Muraleedharan, K R; Balachandran, K K

2017-08-15

Trichodesmium is a bloom-forming, diazotrophic, non-heterocystous cyanobacteria widely distributed in the warmer oceans, and their bloom is considered a 'biological indication' of stratification and nitrogen limitation in the ocean surface layer. In the first part of this paper, based on the retrospective analyses of the ocean surface mesoscale features associated with 59 Trichodesmium bloom incidences recorded in the past, 32 from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, and 27 from the rest of the world, we have showed that warm-core features have an inducing effect on bloom formation. In the second part, we have considered the environmental preferences of Trichodesmium bloom based on laboratory and field studies across the globe, and proposed a view about how warm-core features could provide an inducing pre-requisite condition for the bloom formation in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Proposed that the subsurface waters of warm-core features maintain more likely chances for the conducive nutrient and light conditions required for the triggering of the blooms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in ENSO amplitude under climate warming and cooling

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yingying; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

2018-05-01

The response of ENSO amplitude to climate warming and cooling is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), in which the warming and cooling scenarios are designed by adding heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign onto the ocean surface, respectively. Results show that the warming induces an increase of the ENSO amplitude but the cooling gives rise to a decrease of the ENSO amplitude, and these changes are robust in statistics. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that the increasing (decreasing) SST tendency under climate warming (cooling) is mainly due to an enhancement (weakening) of dynamical feedback processes over the equatorial Pacific, including zonal advective (ZA) feedback, meridional advective (MA) feedback, thermocline (TH) feedback, and Ekman (EK) feedback. As the climate warms, a wind anomaly of the same magnitude across the equatorial Pacific can induce a stronger zonal current change in the east (i.e., a stronger ZA feedback), which in turn produces a greater weakening of upwelling (i.e., a stronger EK feedback) and thus a larger thermocline change (i.e., a stronger TH feedback). In response to the climate warming, in addition, the MA feedback is also strengthened due to an enhancement of the meridional SST gradient around the equator resulting from a weakening of the subtropical cells (STCs). It should be noted that the weakened STCs itself has a negative contribution to the change of the MA feedback which, however, appears to be secondary. And vice versa for the cooling case. Bjerknes linear stability (BJ) index is also evaluated for the linear stability of ENSO, with remarkably larger (smaller) BJ index found for the warming (cooling) case.

Global warming 2007. An update to global warming: the balance of evidence and its policy implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Keller, Charles F

2007-03-09

century or so. However, this conclusion is being challenged by differing interpretations of satellite observations of Total Solar Insolation (TSI). Different satellites give different estimates of TSI during the 1996-7 solar activity minimum. A recent study using the larger TSI satellite interpretation indicates a stronger role for the sun, and until there is agreement on TSI at solar minimum, we caution completely disregarding the sun as a significant factor in recent warming. Computer models continue to improve and, while they still do not do a satisfactory job of predicting regional changes, their simulations of global aspects of climate change and of individual forcings are increasingly reliable. In addition to these four areas, the past five years have seen advances in our understanding of many other aspects of climate change--from albedo changes due to land use to the dynamics of glacier movement. However, these more are of second order importance and will only be treated very briefly. The big news since CFK03 is the first of these, the collapse of the climate critics' last real bastion, namely that satellites and radiosondes show no significant warming in the past quarter century. Figuratively speaking, this was the center pole that held up the critics' entire "tent." Their argument was that, if there had been little warming in the past 25 years or so, then what warming was observed would have been within the range of natural variations with solar forcing as the major player. Further, the models would have been shown to be unreliable since they were predicting warming that was not happening. But now both satellite and in-situ radiosonde observations have been shown to corroborate both the surface observations of warming and the model predictions. Thus, while uncertainties still remain, we are now seeing a coherent picture in which past climate variations, solar and other forcings, model predictions and other indicators such as glacier recession all point to a human

Dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere to global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Karpechko, A.; Manzini, E.

2017-12-01

Climate models often simulate dynamical warming of the Arctic stratosphere as a response to global warming in association with a strengthening of the deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation; however until now, no satisfactory mechanism for such a response has been suggested. Here we investigate the role of stationary planetary waves in the dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation to global warming by analysing simulations performed with atmosphere-only Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models driven by prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We focus on December-February (DJF) because this is the period when the troposphere and stratosphere are strongly coupled. When forced by increased SSTs, all the models analysed here simulate Arctic stratosphere dynamical warming, mostly due to increased upward propagation of quasi-stationary wave number 1, as diagnosed by the meridional eddy heat flux. By analysing intermodel spread in the response we show that the stratospheric warming and increased wave flux to the stratosphere correlate with the strengthening of the zonal winds in subtropics and mid-latitudes near the tropopause- a robust response to global warming. These results support previous studies of future Arctic stratosphere changes and suggest a dynamical warming of the Arctic wintertime polar vortex as the most likely response to global warming.

Influence of warm air-drying on enamel bond strength and surface free-energy of self-etch adhesives.

Science.gov (United States)

Shiratsuchi, Koji; Tsujimoto, Akimasa; Takamizawa, Toshiki; Furuichi, Tetsuya; Tsubota, Keishi; Kurokawa, Hiroyasu; Miyazaki, Masashi

2013-08-01

We examined the effect of warm air-drying on the enamel bond strengths and the surface free-energy of three single-step self-etch adhesives. Bovine mandibular incisors were mounted in self-curing resin and then wet ground with #600 silicon carbide (SiC) paper. The adhesives were applied according to the instructions of the respective manufacturers and then dried in a stream of normal (23°C) or warm (37°C) air for 5, 10, and 20 s. After visible-light irradiation of the adhesives, resin composites were condensed into a mold and polymerized. Ten samples per test group were stored in distilled water at 37°C for 24 h and then the bond strengths were measured. The surface free-energies were determined by measuring the contact angles of three test liquids placed on the cured adhesives. The enamel bond strengths varied according to the air-drying time and ranged from 15.8 to 19.1 MPa. The trends for the bond strengths were different among the materials. The value of the γS⁺ component increased slightly when drying was performed with a stream of warm air, whereas that of the γS⁻ component decreased significantly. These data suggest that warm air-drying is essential to obtain adequate enamel bond strengths, although increasing the drying time did not significantly influence the bond strength. © 2013 Eur J Oral Sci.

Global warming: Clouds cooled the Earth

Science.gov (United States)

Mauritsen, Thorsten

2016-12-01

The slow instrumental-record warming is consistent with lower-end climate sensitivity. Simulations and observations now show that changing sea surface temperature patterns could have affected cloudiness and thereby dampened the warming.

Impact of global warming on the typhoon intensities during 2015

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, N. Y.; Yang, S. H.; Elsner, J.; Chun, Y.

2017-12-01

The climate of 2015 was characterized by a strong El Nino, global warmth, and record setting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity for western North Pacific typhoons. In this study, the highest TC intensity in 32 years (1984-2015) is shown to be a consequence of above normal TC activity—following natural internal variation—and greater efficiency of intensity. The efficiency of intensity (EINT) is termed the `blasting effect' and refers to typhoon intensification at the expense of occurrence. Statistical models show that the EINT is mostly due to the anomalous warmth in the environment as indicated by global mean sea-surface temperature. In comparison, the EINT due to El Nino is negligibly small. This implies that the record-setting intensity of 2015 might not have occurred without environmental warming and suggests that a year with even greater TC intensity is possible in the near future when above normal activity coincides with another record EINT due to continuous warming.

Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schaefer, Kevin; Zhang, Tingjun; Barrett, Andrew P. (National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences, Univ. of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder (United States)), e-mail: kevin.schaefer@nsidc.org; Bruhwiler, Lori (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder (United States))

2011-04-15

The thaw and release of carbon currently frozen in permafrost will increase atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations and amplify surface warming to initiate a positive permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) on climate.We use surface weather from three global climate models based on the moderate warming, A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenario and the SiBCASA land surface model to estimate the strength and timing of the PCF and associated uncertainty. By 2200, we predict a 29-59% decrease in permafrost area and a 53-97 cm increase in active layer thickness. By 2200, the PCF strength in terms of cumulative permafrost carbon flux to the atmosphere is 190 +- 64 Gt C. This estimate may be low because it does not account for amplified surface warming due to the PCF itself and excludes some discontinuous permafrost regions where SiBCASA did not simulate permafrost. We predict that the PCF will change the arctic from a carbon sink to a source after the mid-2020s and is strong enough to cancel 42-88% of the total global land sink. The thaw and decay of permafrost carbon is irreversible and accounting for the PCF will require larger reductions in fossil fuel emissions to reach a target atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration

Disentangling Global Warming, Multidecadal Variability, and El Niño in Pacific Temperatures

Science.gov (United States)

Wills, Robert C.; Schneider, Tapio; Wallace, John M.; Battisti, David S.; Hartmann, Dennis L.

2018-03-01

A key challenge in climate science is to separate observed temperature changes into components due to internal variability and responses to external forcing. Extended integrations of forced and unforced climate models are often used for this purpose. Here we demonstrate a novel method to separate modes of internal variability from global warming based on differences in time scale and spatial pattern, without relying on climate models. We identify uncorrelated components of Pacific sea surface temperature variability due to global warming, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results give statistical representations of PDO and ENSO that are consistent with their being separate processes, operating on different time scales, but are otherwise consistent with canonical definitions. We isolate the multidecadal variability of the PDO and find that it is confined to midlatitudes; tropical sea surface temperatures and their teleconnections mix in higher-frequency variability. This implies that midlatitude PDO anomalies are more persistent than previously thought.

Understanding the causes of recent warming of mediterranean waters. How much could be attributed to climate change?

Science.gov (United States)

Macias, Diego; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Stips, Adolf

2013-01-01

During the past two decades, Mediterranean waters have been warming at a rather high rate resulting in scientific and social concern. This warming trend is observed in satellite data, field data and model simulations, and affects both surface and deep waters throughout the Mediterranean basin. However, the warming rate is regionally different and seems to change with time, which has led to the question of what causes underlie the observed trends. Here, we analyze available satellite information on sea surface temperature (SST) from the last 25 years using spectral techniques and find that more than half of the warming tendency during this period is due to a non-linear, wave-like tendency. Using a state of the art hydrodynamic model, we perform a hindcast simulation and obtain the simulated SST evolution of the Mediterranean basin for the last 52 years. These SST results show a clear sinusoidal tendency that follows the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) during the simulation period. Our results reveal that 58% of recent warming in Mediterranean waters could be attributed to this AMO-like oscillation, being anthropogenic-induced climate change only responsible for 42% of total trend. The observed acceleration of water warming during the 1990s therefore appears to be caused by a superimposition of anthropogenic-induced warming with the positive phase of the AMO, while the recent slowdown of this tendency is likely due to a shift in the AMO phase. It has been proposed that this change in the AMO phase will mask the effect of global warming in the forthcoming decades, and our results indicate that the same could also be applicable to the Mediterranean Sea. Henceforth, natural multidecadal temperature oscillations should be taken into account to avoid underestimation of the anthropogenic-induced warming of the Mediterranean basin in the future.

Understanding the causes of recent warming of mediterranean waters. How much could be attributed to climate change?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diego Macias

Full Text Available During the past two decades, Mediterranean waters have been warming at a rather high rate resulting in scientific and social concern. This warming trend is observed in satellite data, field data and model simulations, and affects both surface and deep waters throughout the Mediterranean basin. However, the warming rate is regionally different and seems to change with time, which has led to the question of what causes underlie the observed trends. Here, we analyze available satellite information on sea surface temperature (SST from the last 25 years using spectral techniques and find that more than half of the warming tendency during this period is due to a non-linear, wave-like tendency. Using a state of the art hydrodynamic model, we perform a hindcast simulation and obtain the simulated SST evolution of the Mediterranean basin for the last 52 years. These SST results show a clear sinusoidal tendency that follows the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO during the simulation period. Our results reveal that 58% of recent warming in Mediterranean waters could be attributed to this AMO-like oscillation, being anthropogenic-induced climate change only responsible for 42% of total trend. The observed acceleration of water warming during the 1990s therefore appears to be caused by a superimposition of anthropogenic-induced warming with the positive phase of the AMO, while the recent slowdown of this tendency is likely due to a shift in the AMO phase. It has been proposed that this change in the AMO phase will mask the effect of global warming in the forthcoming decades, and our results indicate that the same could also be applicable to the Mediterranean Sea. Henceforth, natural multidecadal temperature oscillations should be taken into account to avoid underestimation of the anthropogenic-induced warming of the Mediterranean basin in the future.

Intraseasonal sea surface warming in the western Indian Ocean by oceanic equatorial Rossby waves

Science.gov (United States)

2017-05-09

USA, 2Naval Research Laboratory, Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Branch, Stennis Space Center, Hancock County, Mississippi, USA, 3Department of Physics ...IO and predominantly located south of the equator. The intraseasonal currents associated with downwelling ER waves act on the temperature gradient to...yield warm anomalies in the western IO, even in the presence of cooling by surface fluxes. The SST gradient is unique to the western IO and likely

Using radiative signatures to diagnose the cause of warming during the 2013-2014 Californian drought

Science.gov (United States)

Wolf, Sebastian; Yin, Dongqin; Roderick, Michael L.

2017-10-01

California recently experienced among the worst droughts of the last century, with exceptional precipitation deficits and co-occurring record high temperatures. The dry conditions caused severe water shortages in one of the economically most important agricultural regions of the US. It has recently been hypothesized that anthropogenic warming is increasing the likelihood of such extreme droughts in California, or more specifically, that warmer temperatures from the enhanced greenhouse effect intensify drought conditions. However, separating the cause and effect is difficult because the dry conditions lead to a reduction in evaporative cooling that contributes to the warming. Here we investigate and compare the forcing of long-term greenhouse-induced warming with the short-term warming during the 2013-2014 Californian drought. We use the concept of radiative signatures to investigate the source of the radiative perturbation during the drought, relate the signatures to expected changes due to anthropogenic warming, and assess the cause of warming based on observed changes in the surface energy balance compared to the period 2001-2012. We found that the recent meteorological drought based on precipitation deficits was characterised by an increase in incoming shortwave radiation coupled with a decline in incoming longwave radiation, which contributed to record warm temperatures. In contrast, climate models project that anthropogenic warming is accompanied by little change in incoming shortwave but a large increase in incoming longwave radiation. The warming during the drought was associated with increased incoming shortwave radiation in combination with reduced evaporative cooling from water deficits, which enhanced surface temperatures and sensible heat transfer to the atmosphere. Our analyses demonstrate that radiative signatures are a powerful tool to differentiate the source of perturbations in the surface energy balance at monthly to seasonal time scales.

Process contributions to the intermodel spread in amplified Arctic warming

Science.gov (United States)

Boeke, R.; Taylor, P. C.

2016-12-01

The Arctic is warming at a rate more than twice the global average. This robust climate system response to an external forcing is referred to as Arctic Amplification (AA). While Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate models simulate AA, the largest intermodel spread in projected warming is also found in the Arctic. Quantifying the amount of polar warming relative to global warming influences how society adapts to climate change; a 2°C increase in global mean temperature would result in a polar warming between 4-8°C according to the intermodel spread in CMIP5 simulations. A trove of previous work has considered AA diagnostically using variations in the surface energy budget to attribute the intermodel spread in AA to an assortment of feedbacks—surface albedo, cloud, surface turbulent flux, and atmospheric and oceanic energy transport. We consider a systems-thinking approach treating AA as a process that evolves over time. We hypothesize that two specific components of the AA process are most important and influence the intermodel spread. (1) The inability of the Arctic system to effectively remove excess heat sourced from natural variability. The change in the efficiency of the `Arctic air conditioner' is thought to be due to thinner and less extensive sea ice and the resulting ice albedo feedback. (2) The process through which energy is stored in the ocean and exchanged with the atmosphere within the context of the sea ice annual cycle is also important. This study uses CMIP5 simulations from the historical and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway; an emission scenario with forcing increasing to 8.5 W m-2 by 2100) to analyze how the AA process operates in present and future climate. The intermodel spread in these processes and the influence on the spread in AA are discussed. This approach identifies models that more realistically simulate the AA process and will aid in narrowing intermodel spread in Arctic surface temperature

Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Xiao-Tong; Hui, Chang; Yeh, Sang-Wook

2018-06-01

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. Future projections of ENSO change under global warming are highly uncertain among models. In this study, the effect of internal variability on ENSO amplitude change in future climate projections is investigated based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. A large uncertainty is identified among ensemble members due to internal variability. The inter-member diversity is associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the mean along the equator, which is similar to the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) in the unforced control simulation. The uncertainty in CESM-LE is comparable in magnitude to that among models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting the contribution of internal variability to the intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. However, the causations between changes in ENSO amplitude and the mean state are distinct between CESM-LE and CMIP5 ensemble. The CESM-LE results indicate that a large ensemble of 15 members is needed to separate the relative contributions to ENSO amplitude change over the twenty-first century between forced response and internal variability.

Characteristics of the resonant instability of surface electrostatic-ion-cyclotron waves in a semi-bounded warm magnetized dusty plasma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hong, Woo-Pyo [Department of Electronics Engineering, Catholic University of Daegu, Hayang, 38430 (Korea, Republic of); Jung, Young-Dae, E-mail: ydjung@hanyang.ac.kr [Department of Applied Physics and Department of Bionanotechnology, Hanyang University, Ansan, Kyunggi-Do 15588 (Korea, Republic of); Department of Physics, Applied Physics, and Astronomy, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, 110 8th Street, Troy, NY 12180-3590 (United States)

2016-03-11

The influence of magnetic field and dust rotation on the resonant instability of surface electrostatic-ion-cyclotron wave is kinetically investigated in a semi-bounded warm magnetized dusty plasma. The dispersion relation and the temporal growth rate of the surface electrostatic-ion-cyclotron wave are derived by the specular-reflection boundary condition including the magnetic field and dust rotation effects. It is found that the instability domain decreases with an increase of the rotation frequency of elongated dust grain. It is also found that the dependence of the propagation wave number on the temporal growth rate is more significant for small ion cyclotron frequencies. In addition, it is shown that the scaled growth rate increases with an increase of the strength of magnetic field. The variation of the domain and magnitude of temporal growth rate due to the change of plasma parameters is also discussed. - Highlights: • The resonant instability of surface electrostatic-ion-cyclotron wave is investigated in a semi-bounded magnetized dusty plasma. • The dispersion relation and the temporal growth rate are derived by the specular-reflection condition. • The influence of magnetic field and dust rotation on the resonant instability is discussed.

A preliminary study of the tropical water cycle and its sensitivity to surface warming

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, K. M.; Sui, C. H.; Tao, W. K.

1993-01-01

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCEM) has been used to demonstrate that cumulus-scale dynamics and microphysics play a major role in determining the vertical distribution of water vapor and clouds in the tropical atmosphere. The GCEM is described and is the basic structure of cumulus convection. The long-term equilibrium response to tropical convection to surface warming is examined. A picture of the water cycle within tropical cumulus clusters is developed.

Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Schewe

2011-03-01

Full Text Available We present climatic consequences of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3α, which contains a statistical-dynamical atmosphere and a three-dimensional ocean model. We compare those with emulations of 19 state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM using MAGICC6. The RCPs are designed as standard scenarios for the forthcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report to span the full range of future greenhouse gas (GHG concentrations pathways currently discussed. The lowest of the RCP scenarios, RCP3-PD, is projected in CLIMBER-3α to imply a maximal warming by the middle of the 21st century slightly above 1.5 °C and a slow decline of temperatures thereafter, approaching today's level by 2500. We identify two mechanisms that slow down global cooling after GHG concentrations peak: The known inertia induced by mixing-related oceanic heat uptake; and a change in oceanic convection that enhances ocean heat loss in high latitudes, reducing the surface cooling rate by almost 50%. Steric sea level rise under the RCP3-PD scenario continues for 200 years after the peak in surface air temperatures, stabilizing around 2250 at 30 cm. This contrasts with around 1.3 m of steric sea level rise by 2250, and 2 m by 2500, under the highest scenario, RCP8.5. Maximum oceanic warming at intermediate depth (300–800 m is found to exceed that of the sea surface by the second half of the 21st century under RCP3-PD. This intermediate-depth warming persists for centuries even after surface temperatures have returned to present-day values, with potential consequences for marine ecosystems, oceanic methane hydrates, and ice-shelf stability. Due to an enhanced land-ocean temperature contrast, all scenarios yield an intensification of monsoon rainfall under global warming.

Global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Houghton, John

2005-01-01

'Global warming' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources

Big Jump of Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014-2016 Related to Unusually Large Oceanic Heat Releases

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Jianjun; Overpeck, Jonathan; Peyser, Cheryl; Stouffer, Ronald

2018-01-01

A 0.24°C jump of record warm global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past three consecutive record-breaking years (2014-2016) was highly unusual and largely a consequence of an El Niño that released unusually large amounts of ocean heat from the subsurface layer of the northwestern tropical Pacific. This heat had built up since the 1990s mainly due to greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing and possible remote oceanic effects. Model simulations and projections suggest that the fundamental cause, and robust predictor of large record-breaking events of GMST in the 21st century, is GHG forcing rather than internal climate variability alone. Such events will increase in frequency, magnitude, and duration, as well as impact, in the future unless GHG forcing is reduced.

Understanding the Asian summer monsoon response to greenhouse warming: the relative roles of direct radiative forcing and sea surface temperature change

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xiaoqiong; Ting, Mingfang

2017-10-01

Future hydroclimate projections from state-of-the-art climate models show large uncertainty and model spread, particularly in the tropics and over the monsoon regions. The precipitation and circulation responses to rising greenhouse gases involve a fast component associated with direct radiative forcing and a slow component associated with sea surface temperature (SST) warming; the relative importance of the two may contribute to model discrepancies. In this study, regional hydroclimate responses to greenhouse warming are assessed using output from coupled general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) and idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project. The thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms causing the rainfall changes are examined using moisture budget analysis. Results show that direct radiative forcing and SST change exert significantly different responses both over land and ocean. For most part of the Asian monsoon region, the summertime rainfall changes are dominated by the direct CO2 radiative effect through enhanced monsoon circulation. The response to SST warming shows a larger model spread compared to direct radiative forcing, possibly due to the cancellation between the thermodynamical and dynamical components. While the thermodynamical response of the Asian monsoon is robust across the models, there is a lack of consensus for the dynamical response among the models and weak multi-model mean responses in the CMIP5 ensemble, which may be related to the multiple physical processes evolving on different time scales.

Design and performance of combined infrared canopy and belowground warming in the B4WarmED (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger) experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Rich, Roy L; Stefanski, Artur; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Hobbie, Sarah E; Kimball, Bruce A; Reich, Peter B

2015-06-01

Conducting manipulative climate change experiments in complex vegetation is challenging, given considerable temporal and spatial heterogeneity. One specific challenge involves warming of both plants and soils to depth. We describe the design and performance of an open-air warming experiment called Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger (B4WarmED) that addresses the potential for projected climate warming to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes at the boreal-temperate ecotone. The experiment includes two forested sites in northern Minnesota, USA, with plots in both open (recently clear-cut) and closed canopy habitats, where seedlings of 11 tree species were planted into native ground vegetation. Treatments include three target levels of plant canopy and soil warming (ambient, +1.7°C, +3.4°C). Warming was achieved by independent feedback control of voltage input to aboveground infrared heaters and belowground buried resistance heating cables in each of 72-7.0 m(2) plots. The treatments emulated patterns of observed diurnal, seasonal, and annual temperatures but with superimposed warming. For the 2009 to 2011 field seasons, we achieved temperature elevations near our targets with growing season overall mean differences (∆Tbelow ) of +1.84°C and +3.66°C at 10 cm soil depth and (∆T(above) ) of +1.82°C and +3.45°C for the plant canopies. We also achieved measured soil warming to at least 1 m depth. Aboveground treatment stability and control were better during nighttime than daytime and in closed vs. open canopy sites in part due to calmer conditions. Heating efficacy in open canopy areas was reduced with increasing canopy complexity and size. Results of this study suggest the warming approach is scalable: it should work well in small-statured vegetation such as grasslands, desert, agricultural crops, and tree saplings (<5 m tall). © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

CAUSES: Diagnosis of the Summertime Warm Bias in CMIP5 Climate Models at the ARM Southern Great Plains Site

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Chengzhu; Xie, Shaocheng; Klein, Stephen A.; Ma, Hsi-yen; Tang, Shuaiqi; Van Weverberg, Kwinten; Morcrette, Cyril J.; Petch, Jon

2018-03-01

All the weather and climate models participating in the Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface project show a summertime surface air temperature (T2 m) warm bias in the region of the central United States. To understand the warm bias in long-term climate simulations, we assess the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, with long-term observations mainly from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program Southern Great Plains site. Quantities related to the surface energy and water budget, and large-scale circulation are analyzed to identify possible factors and plausible links involved in the warm bias. The systematic warm season bias is characterized by an overestimation of T2 m and underestimation of surface humidity, precipitation, and precipitable water. Accompanying the warm bias is an overestimation of absorbed solar radiation at the surface, which is due to a combination of insufficient cloud reflection and clear-sky shortwave absorption by water vapor and an underestimation in surface albedo. The bias in cloud is shown to contribute most to the radiation bias. The surface layer soil moisture impacts T2 m through its control on evaporative fraction. The error in evaporative fraction is another important contributor to T2 m. Similar sources of error are found in hindcast from other Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface studies. In Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations, biases in meridional wind velocity associated with the low-level jet and the 500 hPa vertical velocity may also relate to T2 m bias through their control on the surface energy and water budget.

How does whole ecosystem warming of a peatland affect methane production and consumption?

Science.gov (United States)

Hopple, A.; Brunik, K.; Keller, J.; Pfeifer-Meister, L.; Woerndle, G.; Zalman, C.; Hanson, P.; Bridgham, S. D.

2017-12-01

Peatlands are among Earth's most important terrestrial ecosystems due to their massive soil carbon (C) stores and significant release of methane (CH4) into the atmosphere. Methane has a sustained-flux global warming potential 45-times greater than carbon dioxide (CO2), and the accuracy of Earth system model projections relies on our mechanistic understanding of peatland CH4 cycling in the context of environmental change. The objective of this study was to determine, under in situ conditions, how heating of the peat profile affects ecosystem-level anaerobic C cycling. We assessed the response of CO2 and CH4 production, as well as the anaerobic oxidation of CH4 (AOM), in a boreal peatland following 13 months of deep peat heating (DPH) and 16 months of subsequent whole-ecosystem warming (surface and deep heating; WEW) as part of the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) project in northern Minnesota, USA. The study uses a regression-based experimental design including 5 temperature treatments that warmed the entire 2 m peat profile from 0 to +9 °C above ambient temperature. Soil cores were collected at multiple depths (25-200 cm) from each experimental chamber at the SPRUCE site and anaerobically incubated at in situ temperatures for 1-2 weeks. Methane and CO2 production in surface peat were positively correlated with elevated temperature, but no consistent temperature response was found at depth (75-200 cm) following DPH. However, during WEW, we observed significant increases in both surface and deep peat methanogenesis with increasing temperature. Surface peat had greater CH4 production rates than deeper peat, implying that the increased CH4 emissions observed in the field were largely driven by surface peat warming. The CO2:CH4 ratio was inversely correlated with temperature across all depths following 16 months of WEW, indicating that the entire peat profile is becoming more methanogenic with warming. We also observed AOM throughout

Methane Cycling in a Warming Wetland

Science.gov (United States)

Noyce, G. L.; Megonigal, P.; Rich, R.; Kirwan, M. L.; Herbert, E. R.

2017-12-01

Coastal wetlands are global hotspots of carbon (C) storage, but the future of these systems is uncertain. In June 2016, we initiated an in-situ, active, whole-ecosystem warming experiment in the Smithsonian's Global Change Research Wetland to quantify how warming and elevated CO2 affect the stability of coastal wetland soil C pools and contemporary rates of C sequestration. Transects are located in two plant communities, dominated by C3 sedges or C4 grasses. The experiment has a gradient design with air and soil warming treatments ranging from ambient to +5.1 °C and heated plots consistently maintain their target temperature year-round. In April 2017, an elevated CO2 treatment was crossed with temperature in the C3community. Ongoing measurements include soil elevation, C fluxes, porewater chemistry and redox potential, and above- and below-ground growth and biomass. In both years, warming increased methane (CH4) emissions (measured at 3-4 week intervals) from spring through fall at the C3 site, but had little effect on emissions from the C4 site. Winter (Dec-Mar) emissions showed no treatment effect. Stable isotope analysis of dissolved CH4 and DIC also indicated that warming had differing effects on CH4 pathways in the two vegetation communities. To better understand temperature effects on rates of CH4 production and oxidation, 1 m soil cores were collected from control areas of the marsh in summer 2017 and incubated at temperatures ranging from 4 °C to 35 °C. Warming increased CH4 production and oxidation rates in surface samples and oxidation rates in the rooting zone samples from both sites, but temperature responses in deep (1 m) soil samples were minimal. In the surface and rooting zone samples, production rates were also consistently higher in C3 soils compared to C4 soils, but, contrary to our expectations, the temperature response was stronger in the C4 soils. However, oxidation in C3 rooting zone samples did have a strong temperature response. The

An Analysis of Historical Global Warming and Social Engagement

OpenAIRE

Train, Joseph; Roizenman, David; Damiani, Seth; Rochwerg, Ronny

2018-01-01

The goal of this paper is to determine whether there is a correlation between awareness of global warming, and where global warming occurs. This theory is carried out by analyzing maps containing various forms of data that have to do with global warming, such as precipitation and surface temperature, and comparing it with a map of engagement from tweets which mention global warming. This paper found that there is no solid correlation between mentioning global warming in tweets and global warm...

Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sejas, Sergio A; Albert, Oriene S; Cai, Ming; Deng, Yi

2014-01-01

One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heat flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Therefore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea. (letter)

Cold climate bioventing with soil warming in Alaska

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sayles, G.D.; Brenner, R.C.; Leeson, A.; Hinchee, R.E.; Vogel, C.M.

1995-01-01

In the heart of Alaska, a 3-year field study was conducted of bioventing in conjunction with several soil warming methods. The contamination was JP-4 jet fuel. The soil warming methods evaluated, chosen for their apparent low cost, were (1) application of warm water at a low rate, (2) enhanced solar warming by covering the surface with clear plastic in the summer and covering the surface with insulation in the winter, and (3) buried heat pipe. The warm water and buried heat tape methods performed best, maintaining summer-like 10 to 20 C temperatures in the test plots year round, compared to the temperature of the unheated control plot, which dipped to -1 C in the winter. The solar/insulation warming method showed a modest improvement in temperature over the unheated control test plot. The annual average temperatures of the warm water, heat tape, solar, and control plots were 16.9, 14.5, 6.1, and 3.5 C, respectively. The biodegradation rates, measured by in situ respirometry, were higher in plots with higher temperatures and followed the Arrhenius relationship. Despite the low temperature, significant biodegradation was observed in the unheated plot during the winter

Does the climate warming hiatus exist over the Tibetan Plateau?

Science.gov (United States)

Duan, Anmin; Xiao, Zhixiang

2015-09-02

The surface air temperature change over the Tibetan Plateau is determined based on historical observations from 1980 to 2013. In contrast to the cooling trend in the rest of China, and the global warming hiatus post-1990s, an accelerated warming trend has appeared over the Tibetan Plateau during 1998-2013 (0.25 °C decade(-1)), compared with that during 1980-1997 (0.21 °C decade(-1)). Further results indicate that, to some degree, such an accelerated warming trend might be attributable to cloud-radiation feedback. The increased nocturnal cloud over the northern Tibetan Plateau would warm the nighttime temperature via enhanced atmospheric back-radiation, while the decreased daytime cloud over the southern Tibetan Plateau would induce the daytime sunshine duration to increase, resulting in surface air temperature warming. Meanwhile, the in situ surface wind speed has recovered gradually since 1998, and thus the energy concentration cannot explain the accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau after the 1990s. It is suggested that cloud-radiation feedback may play an important role in modulating the recent accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau.

Teachers and Students Knowledge about Global Warming: A Study in Smoke Disaster Area of Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Rosidin, Undang; Suyatna, Agus

2017-01-01

The average temperature on the Earth's surface has globally increased. This issue was generally caused by the increasing of greenhouse gases concentrations due to human activities. Therefore, the knowledge about global warming becomes major topics for students and educators. This research aimed to investigate how the teachers and students…

The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool: critical to world oceanography and world climate

Science.gov (United States)

De Deckker, Patrick

2016-12-01

The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool holds a unique place on the globe. It is a large area [>30 × 106 km2] that is characterised by permanent surface temperature >28 °C and is therefore called the `heat engine' of the globe. High convective clouds which can reach altitudes up to 15 km generate much latent heat in the process of convection and this area is therefore called the `steam engine' of the world. Seasonal and contrasting monsoonal activity over the region is the cause for a broad seasonal change of surface salinities, and since the area lies along the path of the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt, it is coined the `dilution' basin due to the high incidence of tropical rain and, away from the equator, tropical cyclones contribute to a significant drop in sea water salinity. Discussion about what may happen in the future of the Warm Pool under global warming is presented together with a description of the Warm Pool during the past, such as the Last Glacial Maximum when sea levels had dropped by ~125 m. A call for urgent monitoring of the IPWP area is justified on the grounds of the significance of this area for global oceanographic and climatological processes, but also because of the concerned threats to human population living there.

Physics of greenhouse effect and convection in warm oceans

Science.gov (United States)

Inamdar, A. K.; Ramanathan, V.

1994-01-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) in roughly 50% of the tropical Pacific Ocean is warm enough (SST greater than 300 K) to permit deep convection. This paper examines the effects of deep convection on the climatological mean vertical distributions of water vapor and its greenhouse effect over such warm oceans. The study, which uses a combination of satellite radiation budget observations, atmospheric soundings deployed from ships, and radiation model calculations, also examines the link between SST, vertical distribution of water vapor, and its greenhouse effect in the tropical oceans. Since the focus of the study is on the radiative effects of water vapor, the radiation model calculations do not include the effects of clouds. The data are grouped into nonconvective and convective categories using SST as an index for convective activity. On average, convective regions are more humid, trap significantly more longwave radiation, and emit more radiation to the sea surface. The greenhouse effect in regions of convection operates as per classical ideas, that is, as the SST increases, the atmosphere traps the excess longwave energy emitted by the surface and reradiates it locally back to the ocean surface. The important departure from the classical picture is that the net (up minus down) fluxes at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere decrease with an increase in SST; that is, the surface and the surface-troposphere column lose the ability to radiate the excess energy to space. The cause of this super greenhouse effect at the surface is the rapid increase in the lower-troposphere humidity with SST; that of the column is due to a combination of increase in humidity in the entire column and increase in the lapse rate within the lower troposphere. The increase in the vertical distribution of humidity far exceeds that which can be attributed to the temperature dependence of saturation vapor pressure; that is, the tropospheric relative humidity is larger in convective

Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2004-01-01

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation at middle to low levels causes a reduction of high cloud cover due to the depletion of water available for ice-phase rain production. As a result, more isolated, but more intense penetrative convection develops. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale tends, implying a faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbance on daily to weekly time scales. The causes of the sensitivity of the dynamical regimes to the microphysics parameterization in the GCM will be discussed.

Evaluating the Dominant Components of Warming in Pliocene Climate Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, D. J.; Haywood, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Hunter, S. J.; Bragg, F. J.; Contoux, C.; Stepanek, C.; Sohl, L.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Chan, W.-L.;

Unexpected Impacts of Global warming on Extreme Warm Spells

Science.gov (United States)

Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.; McColl, C.; Penland, C.

2017-12-01

It is generally presumed that the likelihood of extreme warm spells around the globe has increased, and will continue to increase, due to global warming. However, we find that this is generally not true in three very different types of global observational datasets and uncoupled atmospheric model simulations of the 1959 to 2012 period with prescribed observed global SSTs, sea ice, and radiative forcing changes. While extreme warm spells indeed became more common in many regions, in many other regions their likelihood remained almost the same or even decreased from the first half to the second half of this period. Such regions of unexpected changes covered nearly 40 percent of the globe in both winter and summer. The basic reason for this was a decrease of temperature variability in such regions that offset or even negated the effect of the mean temperature shift on extreme warm spell probabilities. The possibility of such an impact on extreme value probabilities was highlighted in a recent paper by Sardeshmukh, Compo, and Penland (Journal of Climate 2015). The consistency of the changes in extreme warm spell probabilities among the different observational datasets and model simulations examined suggests that they are robust regional aspects of global warming associated with atmospheric circulation changes. This highlights the need for climate models to represent not just the mean regional temperature signals but also the changes in subseasonal temperature variability associated with global warming. However, current climate models (both CMIP3 and CMIP5) generally underestimate the magnitude of the changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated temperature variability. A likely major cause of this is their continuing underestimation of the magnitude of the spatial variation of tropical SST trends. By generating an overly spatially bland tropical SST warming in response to changes in radiative forcing, the models spuriously mute tropically

Global lake response to the recent warming hiatus

Science.gov (United States)

Winslow, Luke A.; Leach, Taylor H.; Rose, Kevin C.

2018-05-01

Understanding temporal variability in lake warming rates over decadal scales is important for understanding observed change in aquatic systems. We analyzed a global dataset of lake surface water temperature observations (1985‑2009) to examine how lake temperatures responded to a recent global air temperature warming hiatus (1998‑2012). Prior to the hiatus (1985‑1998), surface water temperatures significantly increased at an average rate of 0.532 °C decade‑1 (±0.214). In contrast, water temperatures did not change significantly during the hiatus (average rate ‑0.087 °C decade‑1 ±0.223). Overall, 83% of lakes in our dataset (129 of 155) had faster warming rates during the pre-hiatus period than during the hiatus period. These results demonstrate that lakes have exhibited decadal-scale variability in warming rates coherent with global air temperatures and represent an independent line of evidence for the recent warming hiatus. Our analyses provide evidence that lakes are sentinels of broader climatological processes and indicate that warming rates based on datasets where a large proportion of observations were collected during the hiatus period may underestimate longer-term trends.

Human-caused Indo-Pacific warm pool expansion

OpenAIRE

Weller, Evan; Min, Seung-Ki; Cai, Wenju; Zwiers, Francis W.; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Lee, Donghyun

2016-01-01

The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) has warmed and grown substantially during the past century. The IPWP is Earth?s largest region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), has the highest rainfall, and is fundamental to global atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle. The region has also experienced the world?s highest rates of sea-level rise in recent decades, indicating large increases in ocean heat content and leading to substantial impacts on small island states in the region. Previou...

An observational study on the temperature rising effects in water warming canal and water warming pond

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hong, J. B.; Hong, S. B. [Rural Development Cooperation, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

1990-09-15

The power water flowed out from the multipurpose darn influences the ecosystem approximately because of the low water temperature. An appropriate counter measure to the rising water temperature is needed for growing crops especially when the temperature is below 18°C in the source of the irrigation water This observational study is practiced in Yong-Doo water warming canal and pond in the down stream of Choong-Ju multipurpose dam and is practiced for analyse and compare the rising effects in actural water temperature by actual measurement with the rising effects of planned water temperatuer by the basic theoritical method and for the help to present the direction in plan establishment through investigate the results afterwards. The results are as follows. 1. The degree of the rise of the water temperature can be decided by θ{sub x} = θ{sub 0} + K (L/(v * h)) * (T - θ{sub 0}) Then, K values of a factor representing the characteristics of the water warming canal were 0.00002043 for the type I. and 0.0000173 for the type II. respectively. 2. A variation of water temperature which produced by the difference effective temperature and water temperature in the water warming canal was θ{sub x1} = 16.5 + 15.9 (1-e{sup -0.00018x}), θ{sub x2} = 18.8 + 8.4(1-e{sup -0.000298x}) for the type I. and θ{sub x} = 19.6 + 12.8 (1-e{sup -0.00041x}) for the type II. 3. It was shown that the effects of the rise of water temperature for the type I. water warming canal were greater than that of type II. as a resultes of broadening the surface of the canal compared with the depth of water, coloring the surface of water canal and installing the resistance block. 4. In case of the type I. water warming canal, the equation between the air temperature and the degree of the rise of water temprature could be made; Y = 0.4134X + 7.728 In addition, in case of the type II. water warming canal, the correlation was very low. 5. A monthly variation of the water temperature in the water warming

Delimitation of the warm and cold period of the year based on the variation of the Aegean sea surface temperature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. MAVRAKIS

2004-06-01

Full Text Available Knowledge of the warm and cold season onset is important for the living conditions and the occupational activities of the inhabitants of a given area, and especially for agriculture and tourism. This paper presents a way to estimate the onset/end of the cold and warm period of the year, based on the sinusoidal annual variation of the Sea Surface Temperature. The method was applied on data from 8 stations of the Hellenic Navy Hydrographic Service, covering the period from 1965-1995. The results showed that the warm period starts sometime between April 28th and May 21st while it ends between October 27th and November 19th in accordance with the findings of other studies. Characteristic of the nature of the parameter used is the very low variance per station – 15 days at maximum. The average date of warm period onset is statistically the same for the largest part of the Aegean, with only one differentiation, that between Kavala and the southern stations ( Thira and Heraklion.

The European climate under a 2 °C global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vautard, Robert; Stegehuis, Annemiek; Gobiet, Andreas; Mendlik, Thomas; Sobolowski, Stefan; Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Watkiss, Paul; Landgren, Oskar; Teichmann, Claas; Jacob, Daniela

2014-01-01

A global warming of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 °C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North–South (West–East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models’ climate sensitivity. (paper)

Irrigation enhances local warming with greater nocturnal warming effects than daytime cooling effects

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xing; Jeong, Su-Jong

2018-02-01

To meet the growing demand for food, land is being managed to be more productive using agricultural intensification practices, such as the use of irrigation. Understanding the specific environmental impacts of irrigation is a critical part of using it as a sustainable way to provide food security. However, our knowledge of irrigation effects on climate is still limited to daytime effects. This is a critical issue to define the effects of irrigation on warming related to greenhouse gases (GHGs). This study shows that irrigation led to an increasing temperature (0.002 °C year-1) by enhancing nighttime warming (0.009 °C year-1) more than daytime cooling (-0.007 °C year-1) during the dry season from 1961-2004 over the North China Plain (NCP), which is one of largest irrigated areas in the world. By implementing irrigation processes in regional climate model simulations, the consistent warming effect of irrigation on nighttime temperatures over the NCP was shown to match observations. The intensive nocturnal warming is attributed to energy storage in the wetter soil during the daytime, which contributed to the nighttime surface warming. Our results suggest that irrigation could locally amplify the warming related to GHGs, and this effect should be taken into account in future climate change projections.

Role of volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols in the recent global surface warming slowdown

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Doug M.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Eade, Rosie; Hermanson, Leon; Jones, Gareth S.; Scaife, Adam A.; Sheen, Katy L.; Thompson, Vikki

2016-10-01

The rate of global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming has slowed this century despite the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. Climate model experiments show that this slowdown was largely driven by a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), with a smaller external contribution from solar variability, and volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols. The prevailing view is that this negative PDO occurred through internal variability. However, here we show that coupled models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project robustly simulate a negative PDO in response to anthropogenic aerosols implying a potentially important role for external human influences. The recovery from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 also contributed to the slowdown in GMST trends. Our results suggest that a slowdown in GMST trends could have been predicted in advance, and that future reduction of anthropogenic aerosol emissions, particularly from China, would promote a positive PDO and increased GMST trends over the coming years. Furthermore, the overestimation of the magnitude of recent warming by models is substantially reduced by using detection and attribution analysis to rescale their response to external factors, especially cooling following volcanic eruptions. Improved understanding of external influences on climate is therefore crucial to constrain near-term climate predictions.

The Effect of Warming Oceans at a Tide Gauge Station

OpenAIRE

Bâki Iz H.

2016-01-01

This study proposes a new paradigm for assessing thermosteric effects of warming oceans at a tide gauge station. For demonstration, the trend due to the global thermosteric sea level at the Key West, FL tide gauge station was estimated using the tide gauge measurements and the global sea surface temperature anomalies that were represented by yearly distributed lags. A comparison of the estimate with the trend estimate from a descriptive model revealed that 0.7±0.1 mm/y...

EVIDENCE FOR DCO+ AS A PROBE OF IONIZATION IN THE WARM DISK SURFACE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Favre, Cécile; Bergin, Edwin A.; Cleeves, L. Ilsedore; Hersant, Franck; Qi, Chunhua; Aikawa, Yuri

2015-01-01

In this Letter, we model the chemistry of DCO + in protoplanetary disks. We find that the overall distribution of the DCO + abundance is qualitatively similar to that of CO but is dominated by a thin layer located at the inner disk surface. To understand its distribution, we investigate the different key gas-phase deuteration pathways that can lead to the formation of DCO + . Our analysis shows that the recent update in the exothermicity of the reaction involving CH 2 D + as a parent molecule of DCO + favors deuterium fractionation in warmer conditions. As a result, the formation of DCO + is enhanced in the inner warm surface layers of the disk where X-ray ionization occurs. Our analysis points out that DCO + is not a reliable tracer of the CO snow line as previously suggested. We thus predict that DCO + is a tracer of active deuterium and, in particular, X-ray ionization of the inner disk

Global Warming - Are We on Thin Ice?

Science.gov (United States)

Tucker, Compton J.

2007-01-01

The evidence for global warming is very conclusive for the past 400-500 years. Prior to the 16th century, proxy surface temperature data are regionally good but lack a global distribution. The speaker will review surface temperature reconstruction based upon ice cores, coral cores, tree rings, deep sea sediments, and bore holes and discuss the controversy surrounding global warming. This will be contrasted with the excellent data we have from the satellite era of earth observations the past 30+ years that enables the quantitative study of climate across earth science disciplines.

Hot stuff. Global warming as a giant trend

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brunstad, Bjoern

2007-01-01

The article presents various aspects of global warming with focus on meteorological data, global discharges, estimated surface temperature increments, ocean level elevations and net warming effects of various human activities. The consequences for the economic and social developments are discussed. Some action possibilities are mentioned. (tk)

Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Jianbin; Zhang, Xiangdong; Zhang, Qiyi; Lin, Yanluan; Hao, Mingju; Luo, Yong; Zhao, Zongci; Yao, Yao; Chen, Xin; Wang, Lei; Nie, Suping; Yin, Yizhou; Xu, Ying; Zhang, Jiansong

2017-12-01

The existence and magnitude of the recently suggested global warming hiatus, or slowdown, have been strongly debated1-3. Although various physical processes4-8 have been examined to elucidate this phenomenon, the accuracy and completeness of observational data that comprise global average surface air temperature (SAT) datasets is a concern9,10. In particular, these datasets lack either complete geographic coverage or in situ observations over the Arctic, owing to the sparse observational network in this area9. As a consequence, the contribution of Arctic warming to global SAT changes may have been underestimated, leading to an uncertainty in the hiatus debate. Here, we constructed a new Arctic SAT dataset using the most recently updated global SATs2 and a drifting buoys based Arctic SAT dataset11 through employing the `data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions' method12. Our estimate of global SAT rate of increase is around 0.112 °C per decade, instead of 0.05 °C per decade from IPCC AR51, for 1998-2012. Analysis of this dataset shows that the amplified Arctic warming over the past decade has significantly contributed to a continual global warming trend, rather than a hiatus or slowdown.

Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GOES GCM

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2004-01-01

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

Warm Rain Processes over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GEOS GCM

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2004-01-01

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

Warm natural inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishra, Hiranmaya; Mohanty, Subhendra; Nautiyal, Akhilesh

2013-01-01

In warm inflation models there is the requirement of generating large dissipative couplings of the inflation with radiation, while at the same Âătime, not de-stabilising the flatness of the inflation potential due to radiative corrections. One way to achieve this without fine tuning unrelated couplings is by supersymmetry. In this talk we will discuss warm inflation with Pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone Bosons (PNGB). In this case inflation and other light fields are PNGB. So, the radiative corrections to the potential are suppressed and the thermal Âăcorrections are small as long as the temperature is below the symmetry breaking scale. In such models it is possible to fulfill the contrary requirements of an inflation potential which is stable under radiative corrections and the generation of a large dissipative coupling of the inflation field with other light fields. This warm inflation model with PNGB gives the observed CMB-anisotropy amplitude and spectral index having the symmetry breaking scale at the GUT scale. (author)

Reconciling controversies about the 'global warming hiatus'.

Science.gov (United States)

Medhaug, Iselin; Stolpe, Martin B; Fischer, Erich M; Knutti, Reto

2017-05-03

Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the 'global warming hiatus', caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of 'hiatus' and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.

An appraisal of the geologic structure beneath the Ikogosi warm spring in south-western Nigeria using integrated surface geophysical methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.S Ojo

2011-06-01

Full Text Available An integrated surface geophysical investigation involving resistivity and magnetic methods was carried out in the immediate vicinity of the Ikogosi warm spring situated in south-western Nigeria with a view to delineating its subsurface geological sequence and evaluating the structural setting beneath the warmspring. Total field magnetic measurements and vertical electrical sounding (VES data were acquired along five N-S traverses. Magnetic and VES data interpretation
involved inverse modelling. The inverse magnetic models delineated fractured quartzite/faulted areas within fresh massive quartzite at varying depths and beneath all traverses. The geoelectrical sections developed from VESinterpretation results also delineated a subsurface sequence consisting of a topsoil/weathered layer, fresh quartzite, fractured/faulted quartzite and fresh quartzite bedrock. It was deduced that the fractured/faulted quartzite may have acted as conduit for the
movement of warm groundwater from profound depths to the surface while the spring outlet was located on a geological interface  (lineament.

Response of the global surface ozone distribution to Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature changes: implications for long-range transport

Science.gov (United States)

Yi, Kan; Liu, Junfeng; Ban-Weiss, George; Zhang, Jiachen; Tao, Wei; Cheng, Yanli; Tao, Shu

2017-07-01

The response of surface ozone (O3) concentrations to basin-scale warming and cooling of Northern Hemisphere oceans is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Idealized, spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of ±1 °C are individually superimposed onto the North Pacific, North Atlantic, and North Indian oceans. Our simulations suggest large seasonal and regional variability in surface O3 in response to SST anomalies, especially in the boreal summer. The responses of surface O3 associated with basin-scale SST warming and cooling have similar magnitude but are opposite in sign. Increasing the SST by 1 °C in one of the oceans generally decreases the surface O3 concentrations from 1 to 5 ppbv. With fixed emissions, SST increases in a specific ocean basin in the Northern Hemisphere tend to increase the summertime surface O3 concentrations over upwind regions, accompanied by a widespread reduction over downwind continents. We implement the integrated process rate (IPR) analysis in CESM and find that meteorological O3 transport in response to SST changes is the key process causing surface O3 perturbations in most cases. During the boreal summer, basin-scale SST warming facilitates the vertical transport of O3 to the surface over upwind regions while significantly reducing the vertical transport over downwind continents. This process, as confirmed by tagged CO-like tracers, indicates a considerable suppression of intercontinental O3 transport due to increased tropospheric stability at lower midlatitudes induced by SST changes. Conversely, the responses of chemical O3 production to regional SST warming can exert positive effects on surface O3 levels over highly polluted continents, except South Asia, where intensified cloud loading in response to North Indian SST warming depresses both the surface air temperature and solar radiation, and thus photochemical O3 production. Our findings indicate a robust linkage between basin-scale SST

Response of the global surface ozone distribution to Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature changes: implications for long-range transport

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Yi

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The response of surface ozone (O3 concentrations to basin-scale warming and cooling of Northern Hemisphere oceans is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM. Idealized, spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST anomalies of ±1 °C are individually superimposed onto the North Pacific, North Atlantic, and North Indian oceans. Our simulations suggest large seasonal and regional variability in surface O3 in response to SST anomalies, especially in the boreal summer. The responses of surface O3 associated with basin-scale SST warming and cooling have similar magnitude but are opposite in sign. Increasing the SST by 1 °C in one of the oceans generally decreases the surface O3 concentrations from 1 to 5 ppbv. With fixed emissions, SST increases in a specific ocean basin in the Northern Hemisphere tend to increase the summertime surface O3 concentrations over upwind regions, accompanied by a widespread reduction over downwind continents. We implement the integrated process rate (IPR analysis in CESM and find that meteorological O3 transport in response to SST changes is the key process causing surface O3 perturbations in most cases. During the boreal summer, basin-scale SST warming facilitates the vertical transport of O3 to the surface over upwind regions while significantly reducing the vertical transport over downwind continents. This process, as confirmed by tagged CO-like tracers, indicates a considerable suppression of intercontinental O3 transport due to increased tropospheric stability at lower midlatitudes induced by SST changes. Conversely, the responses of chemical O3 production to regional SST warming can exert positive effects on surface O3 levels over highly polluted continents, except South Asia, where intensified cloud loading in response to North Indian SST warming depresses both the surface air temperature and solar radiation, and thus photochemical O3 production. Our findings indicate a robust linkage

Wind changes above warm Agulhas Current eddies

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Roualt, M

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Sea-surface temperature (SST), altimetry derived sea-level anomalies (SLA) and surface current are used south of the Agulhas Current to identify warm core mesoscale ocean eddies presenting a distinct SST perturbation superior to 1(supo...

Persistent cold air outbreaks over North America in a warming climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Yang; Leung, L Ruby; Lu, Jian; Masato, Giacomo

2015-01-01

This study examines future changes of cold air outbreaks (CAOs) using a multi-model ensemble of global climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and high resolution regional climate simulations. Overall, climate models agree on a dip in CAO duration across North America, but the percentage change is consistently smaller from western Canada to the upper mid-western US with historically more frequent CAO. By decomposing the changes of the probability density function of daily surface temperature into changes due to mean warming and changes in standard deviation (std) and skewness/higher order moments, the contributions of each factor to CAO changes are quantified. Results show that CAO changes can be explained largely by the mean warming, but the decrease in temperature std contributes to about 20% reduction of CAO from Alaska to northeastern US and eastern Canada possibly due to the Arctic amplification and weakening of storm track. A thermodynamical modulation of the skewness called the ‘0 °C mode’ effect is found to operate prominently along the 0 °C isotherm hemispherically and reduce CAO in western and northeastern US with winter snow cover by up to 10%. This effect also produces a manifold increase in CAO events over the Arctic sea ice. An increased frequency in atmospheric blocking also contributes to increases in CAO duration over Alaska and the Arctic region. Regional simulations revealed more contributions of existing snowpack to CAO in the near future over the Rocky Mountain, southwestern US, and Great Lakes areas through surface albedo effects. Overall, the multi-model projections emphasize that cold extremes do not completely disappear in a warming climate. Concomitant with the relatively smaller reduction in CAO events in northwestern US, the top five most extreme CAO events may still occur, and wind chill will continue to have societal impacts in that region. (letter)

Global patterns in lake ecosystem responses to warming based on the temperature dependence of metabolism.

Science.gov (United States)

Kraemer, Benjamin M; Chandra, Sudeep; Dell, Anthony I; Dix, Margaret; Kuusisto, Esko; Livingstone, David M; Schladow, S Geoffrey; Silow, Eugene; Sitoki, Lewis M; Tamatamah, Rashid; McIntyre, Peter B

2017-05-01

Climate warming is expected to have large effects on ecosystems in part due to the temperature dependence of metabolism. The responses of metabolic rates to climate warming may be greatest in the tropics and at low elevations because mean temperatures are warmer there and metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature (with exponents >1). However, if warming rates are sufficiently fast in higher latitude/elevation lakes, metabolic rate responses to warming may still be greater there even though metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature. Thus, a wide range of global patterns in the magnitude of metabolic rate responses to warming could emerge depending on global patterns of temperature and warming rates. Here we use the Boltzmann-Arrhenius equation, published estimates of activation energy, and time series of temperature from 271 lakes to estimate long-term (1970-2010) changes in 64 metabolic processes in lakes. The estimated responses of metabolic processes to warming were usually greatest in tropical/low-elevation lakes even though surface temperatures in higher latitude/elevation lakes are warming faster. However, when the thermal sensitivity of a metabolic process is especially weak, higher latitude/elevation lakes had larger responses to warming in parallel with warming rates. Our results show that the sensitivity of a given response to temperature (as described by its activation energy) provides a simple heuristic for predicting whether tropical/low-elevation lakes will have larger or smaller metabolic responses to warming than higher latitude/elevation lakes. Overall, we conclude that the direct metabolic consequences of lake warming are likely to be felt most strongly at low latitudes and low elevations where metabolism-linked ecosystem services may be most affected. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Soil-surface CO2 flux and growth in a boreal Norway spruce stand: Effects of soil warming and nutrition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stroemgren, M.

2001-01-01

Global warming is predicted to affect the carbon balance of forests. A change in the carbon balance would give a positive or negative feedback to the greenhouse effect, which would affect global warming. The effects of long-term soil warming on growth, nutrient and soil-surface CO 2 flux (R) dynamics were studied in irrigated (I) and irrigated-fertilised (IL) stands of Norway spruce in northern Sweden. Soil temperature on heated plots (Ih and ILh) was maintained 5 deg C above that on unheated plots (Ic and ILc) from May to October, by heating cables. After six years' soil warming, stemwood production increased by 100% and 50% in the I and IL treatment, respectively. The main production increase occurred at the beginning of the season, probably as an effect of the earlier increase in soil temperature. In the 1h treatment, however, the growth increase was evident during the entire season. The effect of increased nitrogen (N) mineralisation on annual growth appeared to be stronger than the direct effect of warming. From 1995-2000, the total amount of N stored in aboveground tree parts increased by 100 and 475 kg N/ha on Ic and ILc plots, respectively. During the same period, 450 kg N fertiliser was added to the ILc plot. Soil warming increased the total amount of N stored in aboveground tree parts by 50 kg N/ha, independently of nutrient treatment. Soil warming did not significantly increase R, except in early spring, when R was 30-50% higher on heated compared to unheated plots. The extended growing season, however, increased annual respiration (RA) by 12-30% throughout. RA losses were estimated to be 0.6-0.7 kg C/ha/year. Use of relationships between R and soil temperature, derived from unheated plots, overestimated RA on heated plots by 50-80%. These results suggest that acclimation of root or microbial respiration or both to temperature had occurred, but the exact process(es) and their relative contribution are still unclear. In conclusion, the study showed that

Long-term changes of South China Sea surface temperatures in winter and summer

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Young-Gyu; Choi, Ara

2017-07-01

Utilizing available atmospheric and oceanographic reanalysis data sets, the long-term trend in South China Sea (SCS) sea surface temperature (SST) between 1950 and 2008 and the governing processes are investigated. Both winter and summer SST increased by comparable amounts, but the warming patterns and the governing processes were different. Strong warming in winter occurred in a deep central area, and during summer in the southern region. In winter the net heat flux into the sea increased, contributing to the warming. The spatial pattern of the heat flux, however, was different from that of the warming. Heat flux increased over the coastal area where warming was weaker, but decreased over the deeper area where warming was stronger. The northeasterly monsoon wind weakened lowering the shoreward Ekman transport and the sea surface height gradient. The cyclonic gyre which transports cold northern water to the south weakened, thereby warming the ocean. The effect was manifested more strongly along the southward western boundary current inducing warming in the deep central part. In summer however, the net surface heat flux decreased and could not contribute to the warming. Over the southern part of the SCS, the weakening of the southwesterly summer monsoon reduced southeastward Ekman transport, which is parallel to the mean SST gradient. Southeastward cold advection due to Ekman transport was reduced, thereby warming the surface near the southeastern boundary of the SCS. Upwelling southeast of Vietnam was also weakened, raising the SST east of Vietnam contributing to the southern summer warming secondarily. The weakening of the winds in each season was the ultimate cause of the warming, but the responses of the ocean that lead to the warming were different in winter and summer.

Corresponding Relation between Warm Season Precipitation Extremes and Surface Air Temperature in South China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

SUN; Wei; LI; Jian; YU; Ru-Cong

2013-01-01

Hourly data of 42 rain gauges over South China during 1966–2005 were used to analyze the corresponding relation between precipitation extremes and surface air temperature in the warm season(May to October).The results show that below 25℃,both daily and hourly precipitation extremes in South China increase with rising temperature.More extreme events transit to the two-time Clausius-Clapeyron(CC)relationship at lower temperatures.Daily as well as hourly precipitation extremes have a decreasing tendency nearly above 25℃,among which the decrease of hourly extremes is much more significant.In order to investigate the efects of rainfall durations,hourly precipitation extremes are presented by short duration and long duration precipitation,respectively.Results show that the dramatic decrease of hourly rainfall intensities above 25℃ is mainly caused by short duration precipitation,and long duration precipitation extremes rarely occur in South China when surface air temperature surpasses 28℃.

Pathways to 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming based on observational and geological constraints

Science.gov (United States)

Goodwin, Philip; Katavouta, Anna; Roussenov, Vassil M.; Foster, Gavin L.; Rohling, Eelco J.; Williams, Richard G.

2018-02-01

To restrict global warming to below the agreed targets requires limiting carbon emissions, the principal driver of anthropogenic warming. However, there is significant uncertainty in projecting the amount of carbon that can be emitted, in part due to the limited number of Earth system model simulations and their discrepancies with present-day observations. Here we demonstrate a novel approach to reduce the uncertainty of climate projections; using theory and geological evidence we generate a very large ensemble (3 × 104) of projections that closely match records for nine key climate metrics, which include warming and ocean heat content. Our analysis narrows the uncertainty in surface-warming projections and reduces the range in equilibrium climate sensitivity. We find that a warming target of 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial level requires the total emitted carbon from the start of year 2017 to be less than 195-205 PgC (in over 66% of the simulations), whereas a warming target of 2 °C is only likely if the emitted carbon remains less than 395-455 PgC. At the current emission rates, these warming targets are reached in 17-18 years and 35-41 years, respectively, so that there is a limited window to develop a more carbon-efficient future.

Committed warming inferred from observations and an energy balance model

Science.gov (United States)

Pincus, R.; Mauritsen, T.

2017-12-01

Due to the lifetime of CO2 and thermal inertia of the ocean, the Earth's climate is not equilibrated with anthropogenic forcing. As a result, even if fossil fuel emissions were to suddenly cease, some level of committed warming is expected due to past emissions. Here, we provide an observational-based quantification of this committed warming using the instrument record of global-mean warming, recently-improved estimates of Earth's energy imbalance, and estimates of radiative forcing from the fifth IPCC assessment report. Compared to pre-industrial levels, we find a committed warming of 1.5K [0.9-3.6, 5-95 percentile] at equilibrium, and of 1.3K [0.9-2.3] within this century. However, when assuming that ocean carbon uptake cancels remnant greenhouse gas-induced warming on centennial timescales, committed warming is reduced to 1.1K [0.7-1.8]. Conservatively, there is a 32% risk that committed warming already exceeds the 1.5K target set in Paris, and that this will likely be crossed prior to 2053. Regular updates of these observationally-constrained committed warming estimates, though simplistic, can provide transparent guidance as uncertainty regarding transient climate sensitivity inevitably narrows and understanding the limitations of the framework is advanced.

INTERNAL STRUCTURE OF ASTEROIDS HAVING SURFACE SHEDDING DUE TO ROTATIONAL INSTABILITY

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hirabayashi, Masatoshi [Research Associate, Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, Aerospace Engineering Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder (United States); Sánchez, Diego Paul [Senior Research Associate, Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, Aerospace Engineering Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder (United States); Scheeres, Daniel J., E-mail: masatoshi.hirabayashi@colorado.edu [Richard Seebass Chair, Professor, Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, Aerospace Engineering Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder (United States)

2015-07-20

Surface shedding of an asteroid is a failure mode where surface materials fly off due to strong centrifugal forces beyond the critical spin period, while the internal structure does not deform significantly. This paper proposes a possible structure of an asteroid interior that leads to surface shedding due to rapid rotation rates. A rubble pile asteroid is modeled as a spheroid composed of a surface shell and a concentric internal core, the entire assembly called the test body. The test body is assumed to be uniformly rotating around a constant rotation axis. We also assume that while the bulk density and the friction angle are constant, the cohesion of the surface shell is different from that of the internal core. First, developing an analytical model based on limit analysis, we provide the upper and lower bounds for the actual surface shedding condition. Second, we use a Soft-sphere Discrete Element Method (SSDEM) to study dynamical deformation of the test body due to a quasi-static spin-up. In this paper we show the consistency of both approaches. Additionally, the SSDEM simulations show that the initial failure always occurs locally and not globally. In addition, as the core becomes larger, the size of lofted components becomes smaller. These results imply that if there is a strong core in a progenitor body, surface shedding is the most likely failure mode.

INTERNAL STRUCTURE OF ASTEROIDS HAVING SURFACE SHEDDING DUE TO ROTATIONAL INSTABILITY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirabayashi, Masatoshi; Sánchez, Diego Paul; Scheeres, Daniel J.

2015-01-01

Surface shedding of an asteroid is a failure mode where surface materials fly off due to strong centrifugal forces beyond the critical spin period, while the internal structure does not deform significantly. This paper proposes a possible structure of an asteroid interior that leads to surface shedding due to rapid rotation rates. A rubble pile asteroid is modeled as a spheroid composed of a surface shell and a concentric internal core, the entire assembly called the test body. The test body is assumed to be uniformly rotating around a constant rotation axis. We also assume that while the bulk density and the friction angle are constant, the cohesion of the surface shell is different from that of the internal core. First, developing an analytical model based on limit analysis, we provide the upper and lower bounds for the actual surface shedding condition. Second, we use a Soft-sphere Discrete Element Method (SSDEM) to study dynamical deformation of the test body due to a quasi-static spin-up. In this paper we show the consistency of both approaches. Additionally, the SSDEM simulations show that the initial failure always occurs locally and not globally. In addition, as the core becomes larger, the size of lofted components becomes smaller. These results imply that if there is a strong core in a progenitor body, surface shedding is the most likely failure mode

First results of warm mesospheric temperature over Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) during the sudden stratospheric warming of 2009

Science.gov (United States)

Sridharan, S.; Raghunath, K.; Sathishkumar, S.; Nath, D.

2010-09-01

Rayleigh lidar observations at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) show an enhancement of the nightly mean temperature by 10-15 K at altitudes 70-80 km and of gravity wave potential energy at 60-70 km during the 2009 major stratospheric warming event. An enhanced quasi-16-day wave activity is observed at 50-70 km in the wavelet spectrum of TIMED-SABER temperatures, possibly due to the absence of a critical level in the low-latitude stratosphere because of less westward winds caused by this warming event. The observed low-latitude mesospheric warming could be due to wave breaking, as waves are damped at 80 km.

An energy balance model exploration of the impacts of interactions between surface albedo, cloud cover and water vapor on polar amplification

Science.gov (United States)

Södergren, A. Helena; McDonald, Adrian J.; Bodeker, Gregory E.

2017-11-01

We examine the effects of non-linear interactions between surface albedo, water vapor and cloud cover (referred to as climate variables) on amplified warming of the polar regions, using a new energy balance model. Our simulations show that the sum of the contributions to surface temperature changes due to any variable considered in isolation is smaller than the temperature changes from coupled feedback simulations. This non-linearity is strongest when all three climate variables are allowed to interact. Surface albedo appears to be the strongest driver of this non-linear behavior, followed by water vapor and clouds. This is because increases in longwave radiation absorbed by the surface, related to increases in water vapor and clouds, and increases in surface absorbed shortwave radiation caused by a decrease in surface albedo, amplify each other. Furthermore, our results corroborate previous findings that while increases in cloud cover and water vapor, along with the greenhouse effect itself, warm the polar regions, water vapor also significantly warms equatorial regions, which reduces polar amplification. Changes in surface albedo drive large changes in absorption of incoming shortwave radiation, thereby enhancing surface warming. Unlike high latitudes, surface albedo change at low latitudes are more constrained. Interactions between surface albedo, water vapor and clouds drive larger increases in temperatures in the polar regions compared to low latitudes. This is in spite of the fact that, due to a forcing, cloud cover increases at high latitudes and decreases in low latitudes, and that water vapor significantly enhances warming at low latitudes.

A new mechanism for warm-season precipitation response to global warming based on convection-permitting simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Aiguo; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Prein, Andreas F.

2017-08-01

Climate models project increasing precipitation intensity but decreasing frequency as greenhouse gases increase. However, the exact mechanism for the frequency decrease remains unclear. Here we investigate this by analyzing hourly data from regional climate change simulations with 4 km grid spacing covering most of North America using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model was forced with present and future boundary conditions, with the latter being derived by adding the CMIP5 19-model ensemble mean changes to the ERA-interim reanalysis. The model reproduces well the observed seasonal and spatial variations in precipitation frequency and histograms, and the dry interval between rain events over the contiguous US. Results show that overall precipitation frequency indeed decreases during the warm season mainly due to fewer light-moderate precipitation (0.1 2.0 mm/h) events, while heavy (2 10 mm/h) events increase. Dry spells become longer and more frequent, together with a reduction in time-mean relative humidity (RH) in the lower troposphere during the warm season. The increased dry hours and decreased RH lead to a reduction in overall precipitation frequency and also for light-moderate precipitation events, while water vapor-induced increases in precipitation intensity and the positive latent heating feedback in intense storms may be responsible for the large increase in intense precipitation. The size of intense storms increases while their number decreases in the future climate, which helps explain the increase in local frequency of heavy precipitation. The results generally support a new hypothesis for future warm-season precipitation: each rainstorm removes ≥7% more moisture from the air per 1 K local warming, and surface evaporation and moisture advection take slightly longer than currently to replenish the depleted moisture before the next storm forms, leading to longer dry spells and a reduction in precipitation frequency, as well as

Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’

Science.gov (United States)

Medhaug, Iselin; Stolpe, Martin B.; Fischer, Erich M.; Knutti, Reto

2017-05-01

Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the ‘global warming hiatus’, caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of ‘hiatus’ and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.

Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods

Science.gov (United States)

Mann, Michael E.; Steinman, Byron A.; Miller, Sonya K.; Frankcombe, Leela M.; England, Matthew H.; Cheung, Anson H.

2016-04-01

The temporary slowdown in large-scale surface warming during the early 2000s has been attributed to both external and internal sources of climate variability. Using semiempirical estimates of the internal low-frequency variability component in Northern Hemisphere, Atlantic, and Pacific surface temperatures in concert with statistical hindcast experiments, we investigate whether the slowdown and its recent recovery were predictable. We conclude that the internal variability of the North Pacific, which played a critical role in the slowdown, does not appear to have been predictable using statistical forecast methods. An additional minor contribution from the North Atlantic, by contrast, appears to exhibit some predictability. While our analyses focus on combining semiempirical estimates of internal climatic variability with statistical hindcast experiments, possible implications for initialized model predictions are also discussed.

Movement of global warming issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugiyama, Taishi

2015-01-01

This paper summarizes the report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), and the movement of the global warming issues as seen from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Conference of the Parties: COP) and the policy discussions in Japan. From the Fifth Assessment Report published by IPCC, it shows the following items: (1) increasing trends of greenhouse effect gas emissions during 1970 and 2010, (2) trends in world's greenhouse effect gas emissions according to income segment, and (3) factor analysis of changes in greenhouse effect gas emissions. Next, it takes up the greenhouse gas emission scenario of IPCC, shows the scenario due to temperature rise pattern, and introduces the assumption of emission reduction due to BECCS. Regarding the 2 deg. scenario that has become a hot topic in international negotiations, it describes the reason for difficulties in its implementation. In addition, as the international trends of global warming, it describes the agreement of numerical targets for emissions at COP3 (Kyoto Conference) and the subsequent movements. Finally, it introduces Japan's measures against global warming, as well as the future movement. (A.O.)

Warming of the Global Ocean: Spatial Structure and Water-Mass Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Hakkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter B.; Worthen, Denise L.

2016-01-01

This study investigates the multidecadal warming and interannual-to-decadal heat content changes in the upper ocean (0-700 m), focusing on vertical and horizontal patterns of variability. These results support a nearly monotonic warming over much of the World Ocean, with a shift toward Southern Hemisphere warming during the well-observed past decade. This is based on objectively analyzed gridded observational datasets and on a modeled state estimate. Besides the surface warming, a warming climate also has a subsurface effect manifesting as a strong deepening of the midthermocline isopycnals, which can be diagnosed directly from hydrographic data. This deepening appears to be a result of heat entering via subduction and spreading laterally from the high-latitude ventilation regions of subtropical mode waters. The basin-average multidecadal warming mainly expands the subtropical mode water volume, with weak changes in the temperature-salinity (u-S) relationship (known as ''spice'' variability). However, the spice contribution to the heat content can be locally large, for example in Southern Hemisphere. Multidecadal isopycnal sinking has been strongest over the southern basins and weaker elsewhere with the exception of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current/subtropical recirculation gyre. At interannual to decadal time scales, wind-driven sinking and shoaling of density surfaces still dominate ocean heat content changes, while the contribution from temperature changes along density surfaces tends to decrease as time scales shorten.

Warm-up and performance in competitive swimming.

Science.gov (United States)

Neiva, Henrique P; Marques, Mário C; Barbosa, Tiago M; Izquierdo, Mikel; Marinho, Daniel A

2014-03-01

Warm-up before physical activity is commonly accepted to be fundamental, and any priming practices are usually thought to optimize performance. However, specifically in swimming, studies on the effects of warm-up are scarce, which may be due to the swimming pool environment, which has a high temperature and humidity, and to the complexity of warm-up procedures. The purpose of this study is to review and summarize the different studies on how warming up affects swimming performance, and to develop recommendations for improving the efficiency of warm-up before competition. Most of the main proposed effects of warm-up, such as elevated core and muscular temperatures, increased blood flow and oxygen delivery to muscle cells and higher efficiency of muscle contractions, support the hypothesis that warm-up enhances performance. However, while many researchers have reported improvements in performance after warm-up, others have found no benefits to warm-up. This lack of consensus emphasizes the need to evaluate the real effects of warm-up and optimize its design. Little is known about the effectiveness of warm-up in competitive swimming, and the variety of warm-up methods and swimming events studied makes it difficult to compare the published conclusions about the role of warm-up in swimming. Recent findings have shown that warm-up has a positive effect on the swimmer's performance, especially for distances greater than 200 m. We recommend that swimmers warm-up for a relatively moderate distance (between 1,000 and 1,500 m) with a proper intensity (a brief approach to race pace velocity) and recovery time sufficient to prevent the early onset of fatigue and to allow the restoration of energy reserves (8-20 min).

Soil warming for utilization and dissipation of waste heat in Pennsylvania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeWalle, D.R.; Chapura, A.M. Jr.

1978-01-01

The feasibility of using soil warming for utilization and dissipation of reject heat from power plants was demonstrated in a year-long test operation of a field prototype in Pennsylvania. A parallel network of 5-mm-diam polyethylene pipes was buried at a 0.3-m depth and with 0.6-m spacing in the soil covering a 15- x 60-m area to convey hot water simulating condenser cooling water from a power plant. Crop response to the heated soil varied: Snap beans and warm season forage crops such as sudangrass responded with increased yields, while cool season forage crops experienced decreased yields. Winter wheat yields were also increased, but winter barley was winter-killed due to delayed development of cold tolerance in the warm soil. Heat dissipation from the buried pipes was primarily by thermal conduction to the soil surface. Rates of heat loss from the buried pipes were most accurately predicted using an equation that included an explicit term for heat conduction below the pipes. Estimated soil warming land area necessary to dissipate all the reject heat from a 33% efficiency, 1500-MW electrical power plant based on minimum measured summer heat loss rates was 76 km 2 compared to the economic optimum of 18.2 km 2 determined as the least-cost system

The global warming hiatus: Slowdown or redistribution?

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Xiao-Hai; Boyer, Tim; Trenberth, Kevin; Karl, Thomas R.; Xie, Shang-Ping; Nieves, Veronica; Tung, Ka-Kit; Roemmich, Dean

2016-11-01

Global mean surface temperatures (GMST) exhibited a smaller rate of warming during 1998-2013, compared to the warming in the latter half of the 20th Century. Although, not a "true" hiatus in the strict definition of the word, this has been termed the "global warming hiatus" by IPCC (2013). There have been other periods that have also been defined as the "hiatus" depending on the analysis. There are a number of uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the "hiatus." This report reviews these issues and also posits insights from a collective set of diverse information that helps us understand what we do and do not know. One salient insight is that the GMST phenomenon is a surface characteristic that does not represent a slowdown in warming of the climate system but rather is an energy redistribution within the oceans. Improved understanding of the ocean distribution and redistribution of heat will help better monitor Earth's energy budget and its consequences. A review of recent scientific publications on the "hiatus" shows the difficulty and complexities in pinpointing the oceanic sink of the "missing heat" from the atmosphere and the upper layer of the oceans, which defines the "hiatus." Advances in "hiatus" research and outlooks (recommendations) are given in this report.

Abrupt warming of the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Raitsos, D. E.

2011-07-19

Coral reef ecosystems, often referred to as “marine rainforests,” concentrate the most diverse life in the oceans. Red Sea reef dwellers are adapted in a very warm environment, fact that makes them vulnerable to further and rapid warming. The detection and understanding of abrupt temperature changes is an important task, as ecosystems have more chances to adapt in a slowly rather than in a rapid changing environment. Using satellite derived sea surface and ground based air temperatures, it is shown that the Red Sea is going through an intense warming initiated in the mid-90s, with evidence for an abrupt increase after 1994 (0.7°C difference pre and post the shift). The air temperature is found to be a key parameter that influences the Red Sea marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over the area.

Abrupt warming of the Red Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Raitsos, D. E.; Hoteit, I.; Prihartato, P. K.; Chronis, T.; Triantafyllou, G.; Abualnaja, Y.

2011-07-01

Coral reef ecosystems, often referred to as “marine rainforests,” concentrate the most diverse life in the oceans. Red Sea reef dwellers are adapted in a very warm environment, fact that makes them vulnerable to further and rapid warming. The detection and understanding of abrupt temperature changes is an important task, as ecosystems have more chances to adapt in a slowly rather than in a rapid changing environment. Using satellite derived sea surface and ground based air temperatures, it is shown that the Red Sea is going through an intense warming initiated in the mid-90s, with evidence for an abrupt increase after 1994 (0.7°C difference pre and post the shift). The air temperature is found to be a key parameter that influences the Red Sea marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over the area.

Mitigation of global warming through renewable biomass

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dhillon, R.S.; Wuehlisch, George von

2013-01-01

Rising level of atmospheric CO 2 and consequent global warming is evident. Global surface temperature have already increased by 0.8 °C over the 20th century and is projected to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during the twenty-first century. The global warming will continue till atmospheric concentrations of the major greenhouse gases are stabilized. Among them, CO 2 is mainly responsible and is expected to account for about 60% of the warming over the next century. This study reviews advances on causes and consequences of global climate change and its impact on nature and society. Renewable biomass has tremendous potential to mitigate the global warming. Renewable biomass is expected to play a multifunctional role including food production, source of energy and fodder, biodiversity conservation, yield of goods and services to the society as well as mitigation of the impact of climate change. The review highlights the different management and research strategies in forestry, agriculture, agroforestry and grasslands to mitigate the global warming. -- Highlights: ► Rising level of atmospheric CO 2 and consequent global warming is evident. ► CO 2 is mainly responsible for global warming. ► Global temperature is predicted to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during 21st century. ► Renewable biomass has great potential to mitigate the global warming

Implications of global warming on human health

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, R.K.; Syam, P.V.S.

1997-01-01

Due to the build up of green house gases in atmosphere, less heat escapes through the atmosphere promoting global warming. This may result in world wide droughts, sea-level rise inundating islands and coastal countries, cataclysmic hurricanes etc. Human health as a result of these changes, will be affected both physiologically and psychologically. Physiological effects may be more pronounced in cases occurring due to changes in rainfall and temperature patterns, food production amounts, water availability, etc. Psychological impact may be more in cases of catastrophes like floods, hurricanes or famine. In this paper, an attempt has been made to highlight the implications of global warming on human health due to temperature change. Food production changes and ultra-violet radiation effects and cataclysmic disaster effects. (author)

Is global warming mostly at night?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kukla, G.; Quayle, R.G.; Karl, T.

1994-01-01

The release of greenhouse gases is expected to lead to substantial future warming. The global mean temperature has indeed risen in recent decades. The causes of the observed warming, and its relation to the greenhouse gas buildup are, however, still debated. One important aspect of the observed temperature change relates to its asymmetry during the day and night. The day-night temperature difference over land in North America, most of Eurasia, Oceania, and portions of Africa and Australia shows a decrease since about 1950. The changes of the daily mean temperature in these areas are principally due to the rising night or early morning temperature, and are accompanied by increasing cloudiness. Their results support the notion that the increase of cloud cover, possibly due to industrial sulfur emissions, mitigates the greenhouse warming. The causes of the changing diurnal temperature range and of the increasing cloudiness will have to be clarified and the future SO 2 emissions reliably projected before any trustworthy prediction of future climates can be made. 37 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

ANALYSES OF ROCK SURFACE COLOUR CHANGES DUE TO WEATHERING

OpenAIRE

GOKAY, Mehmet Kemal

2018-01-01

Description parameters of rock masses and minerals include their colours as well. Colours appear in daylight for surfaced rock masses are changing slightly due to weathering layers which have been covering its surface gradually. Healthy human eyes can manage to differentiate visible light spectrum to identify colours of substances including rock masses. Then visible blackish colours of magnetite minerals, reddish colours of Terra- Rosa soils, greenish colours of weathered copper ore, pure whi...

ANALYSES OF ROCK SURFACE COLOUR CHANGES DUE TO WEATHERING

OpenAIRE

GÖKAY, Mehmet Kemal

2018-01-01

Description parameters of rock masses and minerals include their colours as well. Colours appear in daylight for surfaced rock masses are changing slightly due to weathering layers which have been covering its surface gradually. Healthy human eyes can manage to differentiate visible spectrum to identify the colours of substance including rock masses. Then visible blackish colours of magnetite minerals, reddish colours of Terra- Rosa soils, greenish colours of weathered copper ore, pure white ...

Amplification of global warming through pH dependence of DMS production simulated with a fully coupled Earth system model

Science.gov (United States)

Schwinger, Jörg; Tjiputra, Jerry; Goris, Nadine; Six, Katharina D.; Kirkevåg, Alf; Seland, Øyvind; Heinze, Christoph; Ilyina, Tatiana

2017-08-01

We estimate the additional transient surface warming ΔTs caused by a potential reduction of marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) production due to ocean acidification under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 until the year 2200. Since we use a fully coupled Earth system model, our results include a range of feedbacks, such as the response of marine DMS production to the additional changes in temperature and sea ice cover. Our results are broadly consistent with the findings of a previous study that employed an offline model set-up. Assuming a medium (strong) sensitivity of DMS production to pH, we find an additional transient global warming of 0.30 K (0.47 K) towards the end of the 22nd century when DMS emissions are reduced by 7.3 Tg S yr-1 or 31 % (11.5 Tg S yr-1 or 48 %). The main mechanism behind the additional warming is a reduction of cloud albedo, but a change in shortwave radiative fluxes under clear-sky conditions due to reduced sulfate aerosol load also contributes significantly. We find an approximately linear relationship between reduction of DMS emissions and changes in top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes as well as changes in surface temperature for the range of DMS emissions considered here. For example, global average Ts changes by -0. 041 K per 1 Tg S yr-1 change in sea-air DMS fluxes. The additional warming in our model has a pronounced asymmetry between northern and southern high latitudes. It is largest over the Antarctic continent, where the additional temperature increase of 0.56 K (0.89 K) is almost twice the global average. We find that feedbacks are small on the global scale due to opposing regional contributions. The most pronounced feedback is found for the Southern Ocean, where we estimate that the additional climate change enhances sea-air DMS fluxes by about 9 % (15 %), which counteracts the reduction due to ocean acidification.

Amplification of global warming through pH dependence of DMS production simulated with a fully coupled Earth system model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Schwinger

2017-08-01

Full Text Available We estimate the additional transient surface warming ΔTs caused by a potential reduction of marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS production due to ocean acidification under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 until the year 2200. Since we use a fully coupled Earth system model, our results include a range of feedbacks, such as the response of marine DMS production to the additional changes in temperature and sea ice cover. Our results are broadly consistent with the findings of a previous study that employed an offline model set-up. Assuming a medium (strong sensitivity of DMS production to pH, we find an additional transient global warming of 0.30 K (0.47 K towards the end of the 22nd century when DMS emissions are reduced by 7.3 Tg S yr−1 or 31 % (11.5 Tg S yr−1 or 48 %. The main mechanism behind the additional warming is a reduction of cloud albedo, but a change in shortwave radiative fluxes under clear-sky conditions due to reduced sulfate aerosol load also contributes significantly. We find an approximately linear relationship between reduction of DMS emissions and changes in top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes as well as changes in surface temperature for the range of DMS emissions considered here. For example, global average Ts changes by −0. 041 K per 1 Tg S yr−1 change in sea–air DMS fluxes. The additional warming in our model has a pronounced asymmetry between northern and southern high latitudes. It is largest over the Antarctic continent, where the additional temperature increase of 0.56 K (0.89 K is almost twice the global average. We find that feedbacks are small on the global scale due to opposing regional contributions. The most pronounced feedback is found for the Southern Ocean, where we estimate that the additional climate change enhances sea–air DMS fluxes by about 9 % (15 %, which counteracts the reduction due to ocean acidification.

Isotopic composition of ice core air reveals abrupt Antarctic warming during and after Heinrich Event 1a

Science.gov (United States)

Morgan, J. D.; Bereiter, B.; Baggenstos, D.; Kawamura, K.; Shackleton, S. A.; Severinghaus, J. P.

2017-12-01

Antarctic temperature variations during Heinrich events, as recorded by δ18O­ice­, generally show more gradual changes than the abrupt warmings seen in Greenland ice. However, quantitative temperature interpretation of the water isotope temperature proxy is difficult as the relationship between δ18Oice and temperature is not constant through time. Fortunately, ice cores offer a second temperature proxy based on trapped gases. During times of surface warming, thermal fractionation of gases in the column of unconsolidated snow (firn) on top of the ice sheet results in isotopically heavier nitrogen (N2) and argon (Ar) being trapped in the ice core bubbles. During times of surface cooling, isotopically lighter gases are trapped. Measurements of δ15N and δ40Ar can therefore be used, in combination with a model for the height of the column of firn, to quantitatively reconstruct surface temperatures. In the WAIS Divide Ice Core, the two temperature proxies show a brief disagreement during Heinrich Stadial 1. Despite δ18Oice recording relatively constant temperature, the nitrogen and argon isotopes imply an abrupt warming between 16 and 15.8 kyr BP, manifest as an abrupt 1.25oC increase in the firn temperature gradient. To our knowledge, this would be the first evidence that such abrupt climate change has been recorded in an Antarctic climate proxy. If confirmed by more detailed studies, this event may represent warming due to an extreme southward shift of the Earth's thermal equator (and the southern hemisphere westerly wind belt), caused by the 16.1 ka Heinrich Event.

Trends in continental temperature and humidity directly linked to ocean warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Byrne, Michael P; O'Gorman, Paul A

2018-05-08

In recent decades, the land surface has warmed substantially more than the ocean surface, and relative humidity has fallen over land. Amplified warming and declining relative humidity over land are also dominant features of future climate projections, with implications for climate-change impacts. An emerging body of research has shown how constraints from atmospheric dynamics and moisture budgets are important for projected future land-ocean contrasts, but these ideas have not been used to investigate temperature and humidity records over recent decades. Here we show how both the temperature and humidity changes observed over land between 1979 and 2016 are linked to warming over neighboring oceans. A simple analytical theory, based on atmospheric dynamics and moisture transport, predicts equal changes in moist static energy over land and ocean and equal fractional changes in specific humidity over land and ocean. The theory is shown to be consistent with the observed trends in land temperature and humidity given the warming over ocean. Amplified land warming is needed for the increase in moist static energy over drier land to match that over ocean, and land relative humidity decreases because land specific humidity is linked via moisture transport to the weaker warming over ocean. However, there is considerable variability about the best-fit trend in land relative humidity that requires further investigation and which may be related to factors such as changes in atmospheric circulations and land-surface properties.

Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Chang-Eui; Jeong, Su-Jong; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Park, Hoonyoung; Piao, Shilong; Kim, Jinwon; Feng, Song

2017-09-01

Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961-2010. Before the early 1980s (1961-1983), change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984-2010), the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

Effects of Global Warming on Vibrio Ecology.

Science.gov (United States)

Vezzulli, Luigi; Pezzati, Elisabetta; Brettar, Ingrid; Höfle, Manfred; Pruzzo, Carla

2015-06-01

Vibrio-related infections are increasing worldwide both in humans and aquatic animals. Rise in global sea surface temperature (SST), which is approximately 1 °C higher now than 140 years ago and is one of the primary physical impacts of global warming, has been linked to such increases. In this chapter, major known effects of increasing SST on the biology and ecology of vibrios are described. They include the effects on bacterial growth rate, both in the field and in laboratory, culturability, expression of pathogenicity traits, and interactions with aquatic organisms and abiotic surfaces. Special emphasis is given to the effect of ocean warming on Vibrio interactions with zooplankters, which represent one of the most important aquatic reservoirs for these bacteria. The reported findings highlight the biocomplexity of the interactions between vibrios and their natural environment in a climate change scenario, posing the need for interdisciplinary studies to properly understand the connection between ocean warming and persistence and spread of vibrios in sea waters and the epidemiology of the diseases they cause.

Surface changes of poly-L-lactic acid due to annealing

Science.gov (United States)

Juřík, P.; Michaljaničová, I.; Slepička, P.; Kolskáa, Z.; Švorčík, V.

2017-11-01

Surface modifications are very important part of both current cutting-edge research and modern manufacturing. Our research is focused on poly-L-lactic acid, which is biocompatible and biodegradable polymer that offers applications in modern medicine. We observed morphological changes of the surface of metalized samples due to annealing and studied effect of modifications on total surface area and pore surface and volume. We observed that annealing of non-metalized samples had most pronounced effect up to the 70°C, after which all observed parameters dropped significantly. Metallization has changed behaviour of the samples significantly and resulted in generally lower surface area and porosity when compared to non-metalized samples.

Near-Field Spectral Effects due to Electromagnetic Surface Excitations

OpenAIRE

Shchegrov , Andrei ,; Joulain , Karl; Carminati , Rémi; Greffet , Jean-Jacques

2000-01-01

International audience; We demonstrate theoretically that the spectra of electromagnetic emission of surface systems can display remarkable differences in the near and the far zones. The spectral changes occur due to the loss of evanescent modes and are especially pronounced for systems which support surface waves. PACS numbers: 78.20. – e, 05.40. – a, 44.40. + a, 87.64.Xx Spectroscopy of electromagnetic radiation is perhaps the most powerful exploration tool employed in natural sciences: ast...

CAUSES: On the Role of Surface Energy Budget Errors to the Warm Surface Air Temperature Error Over the Central United States

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, H.-Y.; Klein, S. A.; Xie, S.; Zhang, C.; Tang, S.; Tang, Q.; Morcrette, C. J.; Van Weverberg, K.; Petch, J.; Ahlgrimm, M.; Berg, L. K.; Cheruy, F.; Cole, J.; Forbes, R.; Gustafson, W. I.; Huang, M.; Liu, Y.; Merryfield, W.; Qian, Y.; Roehrig, R.; Wang, Y.-C.

2018-03-01

Many weather forecast and climate models simulate warm surface air temperature (T2m) biases over midlatitude continents during the summertime, especially over the Great Plains. We present here one of a series of papers from a multimodel intercomparison project (CAUSES: Cloud Above the United States and Errors at the Surface), which aims to evaluate the role of cloud, radiation, and precipitation biases in contributing to the T2m bias using a short-term hindcast approach during the spring and summer of 2011. Observations are mainly from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains sites. The present study examines the contributions of surface energy budget errors. All participating models simulate too much net shortwave and longwave fluxes at the surface but with no consistent mean bias sign in turbulent fluxes over the Central United States and Southern Great Plains. Nevertheless, biases in the net shortwave and downward longwave fluxes as well as surface evaporative fraction (EF) are contributors to T2m bias. Radiation biases are largely affected by cloud simulations, while EF bias is largely affected by soil moisture modulated by seasonal accumulated precipitation and evaporation. An approximate equation based upon the surface energy budget is derived to further quantify the magnitudes of radiation and EF contributions to T2m bias. Our analysis ascribes that a large EF underestimate is the dominant source of error in all models with a large positive temperature bias, whereas an EF overestimate compensates for an excess of absorbed shortwave radiation in nearly all the models with the smallest temperature bias.

Substrate texture properties induce triatomine probing on bitten warm surfaces

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lorenzo Marcelo G

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In this work we initially evaluated whether the biting process of Rhodnius prolixus relies on the detection of mechanical properties of the substrate. A linear thermal source was used to simulate the presence of a blood vessel under the skin of a host. This apparatus consisted of an aluminium plate and a nickel-chrome wire, both thermostatized and presented at 33 and 36°C, respectively. To evaluate whether mechanical properties of the substrate affect the biting behaviour of bugs, this apparatus was covered by a latex membrane. Additionally, we evaluated whether the expression of probing depends on the integration of bilateral thermal inputs from the antennae. Results The presence of a latex cover on a thermal source induced a change in the biting pattern shown by bugs. In fact, with latex covered sources it was possible to observe long bites that were never performed in response to warm metal surfaces. The total number of bites was higher in intact versus unilaterally antennectomized insects. These bites were significantly longer in intact than in unilaterally antennectomized insects. Conclusions Our results suggest that substrate recognition by simultaneous input through thermal and mechanical modalities is required for triggering maxillary probing activity.

Reduction in global warming due to fuel economy improvements and emissions control of criteria pollutants: New US light-duty vehicles (1968--1991)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pitstick, M.E.; Santini, D.J. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Chauhan, H. [Delaware Univ., Newark, DE (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering

1992-08-01

This paper explores the impact of US emission controls and fuel economy improvements on the global warming potential (GWP) of new light-duty vehicles. Fuel economy improvements have reduced the GWP of both passenger cars and light-duty trucks by lowering the per mile emissions of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}). Further GWP reductions have been achieved by emission standards for criteria pollutants: carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC), and nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x}). The GWP of a criteria pollutant was calculated by multiplying the emission rate by a relative global warming factor to obtain a CO{sub 2} equivalent emission rate. Both CO{sub 2} and criteria pollutant emission rates per vehicle have decreased substantially for new light-duty vehicles over the period from 1968 to 1991. Over that period, the GWP from CO{sub 2} was reduced by almost 50% in new vehicles by improving fuel economy. In that same time period, the GWP from criteria pollutants from new vehicles was reduced with emission controls by from 80% to 90% depending on the global warming time frame of interest. Consequently, total reductions in the GWP of new passenger cars and light-duty trucks have been on the order of 55 to 75 percent compared to precontrol (before 1968) new vehicles. However, the reduction in GWP caused by emission control of criteria pollutants has been larger than the reduction caused by improved fuel economy (i.e., reduced CO{sub 2}). The contribution of criteria pollutants to the GWP of precontrol new vehicles was substantial, but their contribution has been reduced significantly due to US emission controls. As a result, the contribution of criteria pollutants to global warming is now much less than the contribution of CO{sub 2} from fuel consumption.

Reduction in global warming due to fuel economy improvements and emissions control of criteria pollutants: New US light-duty vehicles (1968--1991)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pitstick, M.E.; Santini, D.J. (Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)); Chauhan, H. (Delaware Univ., Newark, DE (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering)

1992-01-01

This paper explores the impact of US emission controls and fuel economy improvements on the global warming potential (GWP) of new light-duty vehicles. Fuel economy improvements have reduced the GWP of both passenger cars and light-duty trucks by lowering the per mile emissions of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}). Further GWP reductions have been achieved by emission standards for criteria pollutants: carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC), and nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x}). The GWP of a criteria pollutant was calculated by multiplying the emission rate by a relative global warming factor to obtain a CO{sub 2} equivalent emission rate. Both CO{sub 2} and criteria pollutant emission rates per vehicle have decreased substantially for new light-duty vehicles over the period from 1968 to 1991. Over that period, the GWP from CO{sub 2} was reduced by almost 50% in new vehicles by improving fuel economy. In that same time period, the GWP from criteria pollutants from new vehicles was reduced with emission controls by from 80% to 90% depending on the global warming time frame of interest. Consequently, total reductions in the GWP of new passenger cars and light-duty trucks have been on the order of 55 to 75 percent compared to precontrol (before 1968) new vehicles. However, the reduction in GWP caused by emission control of criteria pollutants has been larger than the reduction caused by improved fuel economy (i.e., reduced CO{sub 2}). The contribution of criteria pollutants to the GWP of precontrol new vehicles was substantial, but their contribution has been reduced significantly due to US emission controls. As a result, the contribution of criteria pollutants to global warming is now much less than the contribution of CO{sub 2} from fuel consumption.

Reduction in global warming due to fuel economy improvements and emissions control of criteria pollutants: New US light-duty vehicles (1968--1991)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pitstick, M.E.; Santini, D.J.; Chauhan, H.

1992-01-01

This paper explores the impact of US emission controls and fuel economy improvements on the global warming potential (GWP) of new light-duty vehicles. Fuel economy improvements have reduced the GWP of both passenger cars and light-duty trucks by lowering the per mile emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). Further GWP reductions have been achieved by emission standards for criteria pollutants: carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC), and nitrogen oxides (NO x ). The GWP of a criteria pollutant was calculated by multiplying the emission rate by a relative global warming factor to obtain a CO 2 equivalent emission rate. Both CO 2 and criteria pollutant emission rates per vehicle have decreased substantially for new light-duty vehicles over the period from 1968 to 1991. Over that period, the GWP from CO 2 was reduced by almost 50% in new vehicles by improving fuel economy. In that same time period, the GWP from criteria pollutants from new vehicles was reduced with emission controls by from 80% to 90% depending on the global warming time frame of interest. Consequently, total reductions in the GWP of new passenger cars and light-duty trucks have been on the order of 55 to 75 percent compared to precontrol (before 1968) new vehicles. However, the reduction in GWP caused by emission control of criteria pollutants has been larger than the reduction caused by improved fuel economy (i.e., reduced CO 2 ). The contribution of criteria pollutants to the GWP of precontrol new vehicles was substantial, but their contribution has been reduced significantly due to US emission controls. As a result, the contribution of criteria pollutants to global warming is now much less than the contribution of CO 2 from fuel consumption

Modeling Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in warm climates: a historical perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Pollard, D.; Deconto, R. M.; Gasson, E.

2016-12-01

Early modeling of Antarctic Ice Sheet size vs. climate focused on asymmetry between retreat and growth, with much greater warming needed to cause retreat from full ice cover, due to Height Mass Balance Feedback and albedo feedback. This led to a long-standing model-data conflict, with models needing 1000 to2000 ppmv atmospheric CO2 to produce retreat from full size, vs. proxy data of large ice fluctuations despite much lower CO2 since the Miocene.Subsequent modeling with marine ice physics found that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could undergo repeated warm-period collapses with realistic past forcing. However, that yields only 3 to 7 m equivalent sea-level rise above modern, compared to 10 to 20 m or more suggested by some geologic data. Large subglacial basins in East Antarctica could be vulnerable to the same processes,but did not retreat in most models due to narrower and shallower sills.After recent modifications, some ice sheet models were able to produce warm-period collapse of major East Antarctic basins, with sea-level rise of up to 15 m. The modifications are (i) hydrofracturing by surface melt, and structural failure of ice cliffs, or (ii) numerical treatment at the grounding line. In these models, large retreat occurs both for past warmintervals, and also for future business-as-usual scenarios.Some interpretations of data in the late Oligocene and Miocene suggest yet larger fluctuations, between 50 to 100% of modern Antarctic size. That would require surface-melt driven retreat of some terrestrial East Antarctic ice, despite the hysteresis issue raised above. A recent study using a coupled climate-ice sheet model found that with a finer climate gridand more frequent coupling exchange, substantial retreat of terrestrial Antarctica can occur with 500 to 840 ppmv CO2, much lower than in earlier models. This will allow meaningful interactions between modeling and deeper-time geologic interpretations since the late Oligocene.

The influence of global warming on natural disasters and their public health outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Diaz, James H

2007-01-01

With a documented increase in average global surface temperatures of 0.6 degrees C since 1975, Earth now appears to be warming due to a variety of climatic effects, most notably the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities. There remains, however, no universal agreement on how rapidly, regionally, or asymmetrically the planet will warm or on the true impact of global warming on natural disasters and public health outcomes. Most reports to date of the public health impact of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on the increase in heat-stroke deaths following heat waves and on outbreaks of airborne and arthropod-borne diseases following tropical rains and flooding that resulted from fluctuations in ocean temperatures. The effects of global warming on rainfall and drought, tropical cyclone and tsunami activity, and tectonic and volcanic activity will have far-reaching public health effects not only on environmentally associated disease outbreaks but also on global food supplies and population movements. As a result of these and other recognized associations between climate change and public health consequences, many of which have been confounded by deficiencies in public health infrastructure and scientific debates over whether climate changes are spawned by atmospheric cycles or anthropogenic influences, the active responses to progressive climate change must include combinations of economic, environmental, legal, regulatory, and, most importantly, public health measures.

Recent Global Warming As Depicted by AIRS, GISSTEMP, and MERRA-2

Science.gov (United States)

Susskind, J.; Iredell, L. F.; Lee, J. N.

2017-12-01

We observed anomalously warm global mean surface temperatures since 2015. The year 2016 represents the warmest annual mean surface skin and surface air temperatures in the AIRS observational period, September 2002 through August 2017. Additionally, AIRS monthly mean surface skin temperature, from January 2016 through September 2016, and November 2016, were the warmest observed for each month of the year. Continuing this trend, the AIRS global surface temperatures of 2017 February and April show the second greatest positive anomalies from average. This recent warming is particularly significant over the Arctic where the snow and sea ice melt is closely tied to the spring and summer surface temperatures. In this paper, we show the global distribution of surface temperature anomalies as observed by AIRS over the period September 2002 through August 2017 and compare them with those from the GISSTEMP and MERRA-2 surface temperatures. The spatial patterns of warm and cold anomalies for a given month show reasonably good agreement in all three data set. AIRS anomalies, which do not have the benefit of in-situ measurements, are in almost perfect agreement with those of MERRA-2, which does use in-situ surface measurements. GISSTEMP anomaly patterns for the most part look similar to those of AIRS and MERRA-2, but are more spread out spatially, and consequently are also weaker.

Tribological evaluation of surface modified H13 tool steel in warm forming of Ti–6Al–4V titanium alloy sheet

OpenAIRE

Wang, Dan; Li, Heng; Yang, He; Ma, Jun; Li, Guangjun

2014-01-01

The H13 hot-working tool steel is widely used as die material in the warm forming of Ti–6Al–4V titanium alloy sheet. However, under the heating condition, severe friction and lubricating conditions between the H13 tools and Ti–6Al–4V titanium alloy sheet would cause difficulty in guaranteeing forming quality. Surface modification may be used to control the level of friction force, reduce the friction wear and extend the service life of dies. In this paper, four surface modification methods (c...

Global Warming Blame the Sun

CERN Document Server

Calder, N

1997-01-01

Concern about climate change reaches a political peak at a UN conference in Kyoto, 1-10 December, but behind the scenes the science is in turmoil. A challenge to the hypothesis that greenhouse gases are responsible for global warming comes from the discovery that cosmic rays from the Galaxy are involved in making clouds (Svensmark and Friis-Christensen, 1997). During the 20th Century the wind from the Sun has grown stronger and the count of cosmic rays has diminished. With fewer clouds, the EarthÕs surface has warmed up. This surprising mechanism explains the link between the Sun and climate change that astronomers and geophysicists have suspected for 200 years.

Is the enhancement of global warming important?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Symons, M.C.R.; Barrett, J.

2001-01-01

There is no doubt that global warming is important; without it the Earth's surface would have a mean temperature of 33 o C lower than it has currently. The IPCC maintains that human activities are to blame for the observed increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since pre-industrial times. There are some doubts about whether global warming is being enhanced by the activities of the human race. This article reviews these doubts and the proposed remedies to the alleged enhancement. (author)

Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cox, P.M.; Betts, R.A.; Jones, C.D.; Spall, S.A.; Totterdell, I.J.

2000-01-01

The continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide due to anthropogenic emissions is predicted to lead to significant changes in climate. About half of the current emissions are being absorbed by the ocean and by land ecosystems, but this absorption is sensitive to climate as well as to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, creating a feedback loop. General circulation models have generally excluded the feedback between climate and the biosphere, using static vegetation distributions and CO 2 concentrations from simple carbon-cycle models that do not include climate change. Here we present results from a fully coupled, three-dimensional carbon-climate model, indicating that carbon-cycle feedbacks could significantly accelerate climate change over the twenty-first century. We find that under a 'business as usual' scenario, the terrestrial biosphere acts as an overall carbon sink until about 2050, but turns into a source thereafter. By 2100, the ocean uptake rate of 5 Gt C yr -1 is balanced by the terrestrial carbon source, and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are 250 p.p.m.v. higher in our fully coupled simulation than in uncoupled carbon models, resulting in a global-mean warming of 5.5 K, as compared to 4 K without the carbon-cycle feedback. (author)

Greenland in Warm (1.5 °C) and Warmer (RCP 8.5) Worlds: The Influence of the Paris Agreement on Ice Sheet Surface Melting

Science.gov (United States)

Reusch, D. B.

2017-12-01

Melting on the surface of the Greenland ice sheet has been changing dramatically as global air temperatures have increased in recent decades, including melt extent often exceeding the 1981-2010 median through much of the melt season and the onset of intermittent melt moving to earlier in the year. To evaluate potential future change, we investigate surface melting characteristics under both "low" (limited to 1.5 °C) and "high" (RCP 8.5) warming scenarios including analysis of differences in scenario outcomes. Climatologies of melt-relevant variables are developed from two publicly available ensembles of CESM1-CAM5-BGC GCM runs: the 30-member Large Ensemble (CESM LE; Kay et al. 2015) for historical calibration and the RCP 8.5 scenario and the 11-member Low Warming ensemble (CESM LW; Sanderson et al. 2017) for the 1.5 °C scenario. For higher spatial resolution (15 km) and improved polar-centric model physics, we also apply the regional forecast model Polar WRF to decadal subsets (1996-2005; 2071-80) using GCM data archived at sub-daily resolution for boundary conditions. Models were skill-tested against ERA-Interim Reanalysis (ERAI) and AWS observations. For example, CESM LE tends to overpredict both maximum (above-freezing) and minimum daily average surface temperatures compared to observations from the GC-Net Swiss Camp AWS. Ensembles of members differing only by initial conditions allow us to also estimate intramodel uncertainty. Historical (1981-2000) CESM LE spatially averaged July temperatures are 2 +/- 0.2 °C cooler than ERAI while local anomalies in individual members reach up to +/- 2 °C. As expected, Greenland does not escape future (2081-2100) warming (and expectations of more widespread surface melting) even in the LW scenario, but positive changes versus ERAI are mostly coastal (2-3 °C) with the interior showing only minor change (+/- 1 °C). In contrast, under RCP 8.5, the entire ice sheet has warmed by 2-6 °C, or a median increase of 5 °C versus

Dynamics behind warming of the southeastern Arabian Sea and its interruption based on in situ measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Mathew, Simi; Natesan, Usha; Latha, Ganesan; Venkatesan, Ramasamy

2018-05-01

A study of the inter-annual variability of the warming of the southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS) during the spring transition months was carried out from 2013 to 2015 based on in situ data from moored buoys. An attempt was made to identify the roles of the different variables in the warming of the SEAS (e.g., net heat flux, advection, entrainment, and thickness of the barrier layer during the previous northeast monsoon season). The intense freshening of the SEAS (approximately 2 PSU) occurring in each December, together with the presence of a downwelling Rossby wave, supports the formation of a thick barrier layer during the northeast monsoon season. It is known that the barrier layer thickness, varying each year, plays a major role in the spring warming of the SEAS. Interestingly, an anomalously thick barrier layer occurred during the northeast monsoon season of 2012-2013. However, the highest sea surface temperature (31 °C) was recorded during the last week of April 2015, while the lowest sea surface temperature (29.7 °C) was recorded during the last week of May 2013. The mixed layer heat budget analysis during the spring transition months proved that the intense warming has been mainly supported by the net heat flux, not by other factors like advection and entrainment. The inter-annual variability analysis of the net heat flux and its components, averaged over a box region of the SEAS, showed a substantial latent heat flux release and a reduction in net shortwave radiation in 2013. Both factors contributed to the negative net heat flux. Strong breaks in the warming were also observed in May due to the entrainment of cold sub-surface waters. These events are associated with the cyclonic eddy persisting over the SEAS during the same time. The entrainment term, favoring the cooling, was stronger in 2015 than that in 2013 and 2014. The surface temperatures measured in 2013 were lower than those in 2014 and 2015 despite the presence of a thick barrier layer. The

Water vapor changes under global warming and the linkage to present-day interannual variabilities in CMIP5 models

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, Hanii; Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.

2016-12-01

The fractional water vapor changes under global warming across 14 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations are analyzed. We show that the mean fractional water vapor changes under global warming in the tropical upper troposphere between 300 and 100 hPa range from 12.4 to 28.0 %/K across all models while the fractional water vapor changes are about 5-8 %/K in other regions and at lower altitudes. The "upper-tropospheric amplification" of the water vapor change is primarily driven by a larger temperature increase in the upper troposphere than in the lower troposphere per degree of surface warming. The relative contributions of atmospheric temperature and relative humidity changes to the water vapor change in each model vary between 71.5 to 131.8 % and 24.8 to -20.1 %, respectively. The inter-model differences in the water vapor change is primarily caused by differences in temperature change, except over the inter-tropical convergence zone within 10°S-10°N where the model differences due to the relative humidity change are significant. Furthermore, we find that there is generally a positive correlation between the rates of water vapor change for long-tem surface warming and those on the interannual time scales. However, the rates of water vapor change under long-term warming have a systematic offset from those on the inter-annual time scales and the dominant contributor to the differences also differs for the two time scales, suggesting caution needs to be taken when inferring long-term water vapor changes from the observed interannual variations.

The politics of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moss, N.

1991-01-01

The probable warming of the world over the next few decades due to human activity presents a unique threat. The threat of global warming has been brought about by the activities of the entire human race, and only action by a large part of the human race can slow down the process or halt it. Other unwanted effects of industrial activity are trans-national, and require international agreements to regulate them, most obviously radioactivity from nuclear power accidents, acid rain and river pollution; but climatic change, unlike these, is global. International negotiations are going on now to deal with the problem of global warming, mostly by reducing the emission of gases that contribute to it. These are preliminary, yet already different perceptions and conflicting interests are emerging. The aim of the present negotiations is a convention for the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) to be held in June 1992, the so-called ''Earth Summit''. (author)

Sea Surface Temperatures in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool During the Early Pliocene Warm Period

Science.gov (United States)

Dekens, P. S.; Ravelo, A. C.; Griffith, E. M.

2010-12-01

The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) plays an important role in both regional and global climate, but the response of this region to anthropogenic climate change is not well understood. While the early Pliocene is not a perfect analogue for anthropogenic climate change, it is the most recent time in Earth history when global temperatures were warmer than they are today for a sustained period of time. SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific was 2-4○C warmer in the early Pliocene compared to today. A Mg/Ca SST at ODP site 806 in the western equatorial Pacific indicates that SST were stable through the last 5Ma (Wara et al., 2005). We generated a G. sacculifer Mg/Ca record in the Indian Ocean (ODP sit 758) for the last 5 Ma, which also shows that IPWP SST has remained relatively stable through the last 5 Ma and was not warmer in the early Pliocene compared today. A recent paper suggests that the Mg/Ca of seawater may have varied through the last 5 Ma and significantly affected Mg/Ca SST estimates (Medina-Elizalde et al., 2008). However, there is considerable uncertainty in the estimates of seawater Mg/Ca variations through time. We will present a detailed examination of these uncertainties to examine the possible range of seawater Mg/Ca through the last 5 Ma. Due to the lack of culturing work of foraminifera at different Mg/Ca ratios in the growth water there is also uncertainty in how changes in seawater Mg/Ca will affect the temperatures signal in the proxy. We will explore how uncertainties in the record of seawater Mg/Ca variations through time and its effect on the Mg/Ca SST proxy potentially influence the interpretation of the Mg/Ca SST records at ODP sites 806 and 758 in the IPWP, and ODP site 847 in the eastern equatorial Pacific. We will also explore how adjustment of the Mg/Ca SST estimates (due to reconstructed Mg/Ca seawater variations) affects the δ18O of water when adjusted Mg/Ca SST estimates are paired with δ18O measurements of the same samples.

Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C.-E. Park

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961–2010. Before the early 1980s (1961–1983, change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984–2010, the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

Climate change. Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Romps, David M; Seeley, Jacob T; Vollaro, David; Molinari, John

2014-11-14

Lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained. Here we propose that the lightning flash rate is proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Using observations, the product of CAPE and precipitation explains 77% of the variance in the time series of total cloud-to-ground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Storms convert CAPE times precipitated water mass to discharged lightning energy with an efficiency of 1%. When this proxy is applied to 11 climate models, CONUS lightning strikes are predicted to increase 12 ± 5% per degree Celsius of global warming and about 50% over this century. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Warm Paleocene/Eocene climate as simulated in ECHAM5/MPI-OM

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M. Heinemann

2009-12-01

Full Text Available We investigate the late Paleocene/early Eocene (PE climate using the coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. The surface in our PE control simulation is on average 297 K warm and ice-free, despite a moderate atmospheric CO₂ concentration of 560 ppm. Compared to a pre-industrial reference simulation (PR, low latitudes are 5 to 8 K warmer, while high latitudes are up to 40 K warmer. This high-latitude amplification is in line with proxy data, yet a comparison to sea surface temperature proxy data suggests that the Arctic surface temperatures are still too low in our PE simulation.

To identify the mechanisms that cause the PE-PR surface temperature differences, we fit two simple energy balance models to the ECHAM5/MPI-OM results. We find that about 2/3 of the PE-PR global mean surface temperature difference are caused by a smaller clear sky emissivity due to higher atmospheric CO₂ and water vapour concentrations in PE compared to PR; 1/3 is due to a smaller planetary albedo. The reduction of the pole-to-equator temperature gradient in PE compared to PR is due to (1 the large high-latitude effect of the higher CO₂ and water vapour concentrations in PE compared to PR, (2 the lower Antarctic orography, (3 the smaller surface albedo at high latitudes, and (4 longwave cloud radiative effects. Our results support the hypothesis that local radiative effects rather than increased meridional heat transports were responsible for the "equable" PE climate.

Community impacts of mid-May frost event during an anomalously warm spring

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Hufkens, K.; Sonnentag, O.; Keenan, T. F.; Richardson, A. D.; Melaas, E. K.; Bailey, A.; O'Keefe, J.; Friedl, M. A.

2011-12-01

Global land and ocean surface temperatures of 2010 have gone on record as one of the warmest of the last 131 years. In the northeastern US extraordinarily warm spring temperatures were recorded, averaging +3 °C above the long term mean, causing very early leaf development. However, the entire northeastern US region was hit by a severe frost event. Leveraging the coincidence of an anomalously warm spring and a late spring frost event we assess species specific responses of these combined extremes for three northern hardwood species(sugar maple, American beech, yellow birch) across an elevational gradient. We integrated ground observations with satellite and near-surface remote sensing data to address the following questions: 1) How did different species respond to a gradient in altitude / freezing temperatures? 2) How does phenological strategy influence this response? 3) To what extent were regional effects measurable? 4) How did the late spring frost event alter the carbon balance of a northern hardwood forest? 5) Finally, what changes do we foresee in community ecology? Our results show an early onset for all species, triggered by the anomalously warm spring. However, the three species responded differently to a late spring frost event. Where both yellow birch and American beech remained largely unaffected by frost, by comparison, sugar maple showed severe frost damage with increasing altitude resulting in leaf loss and delayed canopy development. Conservative estimates of gross carbon exchange losses due to the frost event ranged from 63 g C m-2 to 156 g C m-2, or ~5% to ~13 % of the annual gross carbon exchange of a northern hardwood forest. Our results suggest that the additional pressure on forest succession at high altitude range margins due to late spring frost events may provide a competitive advantage for yellow birch and American beech, at the expense of sugar maple. Consequently, a late spring frost does not only affect the short term carbon balance

Evaluation of RSG-GAS purification system and pool warm water layer supplier performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sudiyono; Suhadi; Diah-Erlina-Lestari

2005-01-01

Function of RSG-GAS purification system and warm water supplier (KBE 02) are to pick up dissolve activation result and another dirts of warm water layer. To keep quality of water at the decided level. The system is equipped by heater to supply warm water layer on the reactor pool surface the distribution is to reduce radiation level in the operation hall area a speciality on the reactor pool surface. Line KBE 02 tomord beam tube headitty system supplies water necessary to be shielding to beam tube in use off time. Of the RSG-GAS purification system and pool warm water layer performance date can be shown north of water is always in good condition. To require the dechded requirement. Resin live time is two years and then months

Warm spells in Northern Europe in relation to atmospheric circulation

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Tomczyk, Arkadiusz M.; Piotrowski, Piotr; Bednorz, Ewa

2017-05-01

This study describes warm spells in Northern Europe and determines the synoptic situations that cause their occurrence. In this article, a relatively warm day was defined as a day when the maximum temperature exceeded the 95th annual percentile, and a warm spell (WS) was considered to be a sequence of at least five relatively warm days. In the analysed multiannual period and within the investigated area, 24 (Kallax) to 53 (Oslo) WSs were observed. The occurrence of WSs was mainly connected with positive anomalies of sea level pressure and a 500-hPa isobaric surface, displaying the presence of high-pressure systems. This occurrence was also accompanied by positive T850 anomalies.

Does the climate warming hiatus exist over the Tibetan Plateau?

OpenAIRE

Anmin Duan; Zhixiang Xiao

2015-01-01

The surface air temperature change over the Tibetan Plateau is determined based on historical observations from 1980 to 2013. In contrast to the cooling trend in the rest of China, and the global warming hiatus post-1990s, an accelerated warming trend has appeared over the Tibetan Plateau during 1998–2013 (0.25 °C decade−1), compared with that during 1980–1997 (0.21 °C decade−1). Further results indicate that, to some degree, such an accelerated warming trend might be attributable to cloud–ra...

Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Robock, Alan; Mao, Jianping

1992-01-01

An examination of the Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883-1992 shows warming over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95-percent level. This pattern is found in the first winter after tropical eruptions, in the first or second winter after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second winter after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of warming, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight.

Distribution of a pelagic tunicate, Salpa fusiformis in warm surface current of the eastern Korean waters and its impingement on cooling water intakes of Uljin nuclear power plant.

Science.gov (United States)

Chae, Jinho; Choi, Hyun Woo; Lee, Woo Jin; Kim, Dongsung; Lee, Jae Hac

2008-07-01

Impingement of a large amount of gelatinous plankton, Salpa fusiformis on the seawater intake system-screens in a nuclear power plant at Uljin was firstly recorded on 18th June 2003. Whole amount of the clogged animals was estimated were presumptively at 295 tons and the shortage of cooling seawater supply by the animal clogging caused 38% of decrease in generation capability of the power plant. Zooplankton collection with a multiple towing net during the day and at night from 5 to 6 June 2003 included various gelatinous zooplanktons known to be warm water species such as salps and siphonophores. Comparatively larger species, Salpa fusiformis occupied 25.4% in individual density among the gelatinous plankton and showed surface distribution in the depth shallower than thermocline, performing little diel vertical migration. Temperature, salinity and satellite data also showed warm surface current predominated over the southern coastal region near the power plant in June. The results suggested that warm surface current occasionally extended into the neritic region may transfer S. fusiformis, to the waters off the power plant. The environmental factors and their relation to ecobiology of the large quantity of salpa population that are being sucked into the intake channel of the power plant are discussed.

High-frequency pressure variations in the vicinity of a surface CO2 flux chamber

Science.gov (United States)

Eugene S. Takle; James R. Brandle; R. A. Schmidt; Rick Garcia; Irina V. Litvina; William J. Massman; Xinhua Zhou; Geoffrey Doyle; Charles W. Rice

2003-01-01

We report measurements of 2Hz pressure fluctuations at and below the soil surface in the vicinity of a surface-based CO2 flux chamber. These measurements were part of a field experiment to examine the possible role of pressure pumping due to atmospheric pressure fluctuations on measurements of surface fluxes of CO2. Under the moderate wind speeds, warm temperatures,...

Impact of warm winters on microbial growth

Science.gov (United States)

Birgander, Johanna; Rousk, Johannes; Axel Olsson, Pål

2014-05-01

Growth of soil bacteria has an asymmetrical response to higher temperature with a gradual increase with increasing temperatures until an optimum after which a steep decline occurs. In laboratory studies it has been shown that by exposing a soil bacterial community to a temperature above the community's optimum temperature for two months, the bacterial community grows warm-adapted, and the optimum temperature of bacterial growth shifts towards higher temperatures. This result suggests a change in the intrinsic temperature dependence of bacterial growth, as temperature influenced the bacterial growth even though all other factors were kept constant. An intrinsic temperature dependence could be explained by either a change in the bacterial community composition, exchanging less tolerant bacteria towards more tolerant ones, or it could be due to adaptation within the bacteria present. No matter what the shift in temperature tolerance is due to, the shift could have ecosystem scale implications, as winters in northern Europe are getting warmer. To address the question of how microbes and plants are affected by warmer winters, a winter-warming experiment was established in a South Swedish grassland. Results suggest a positive response in microbial growth rate in plots where winter soil temperatures were around 6 °C above ambient. Both bacterial and fungal growth (leucine incorporation, and acetate into ergosterol incorporation, respectively) appeared stimulated, and there are two candidate explanations for these results. Either (i) warming directly influence microbial communities by modulating their temperature adaptation, or (ii) warming indirectly affected the microbial communities via temperature induced changes in bacterial growth conditions. The first explanation is in accordance with what has been shown in laboratory conditions (explained above), where the differences in the intrinsic temperature relationships were examined. To test this explanation the

Global Warming: The Balance of Evidence and Its Policy Implications

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Charles Keller

2003-01-01

Full Text Available Global warming and attendant climate change have been controversial for at least a decade. This is largely because of its societal implications. With the recent publication of the Third Assessment Report of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change there has been renewed interest and controversy about how certain the scientific community is of its conclusions: that humans are influencing the climate and that global temperatures will continue to rise rapidly in this century. This review attempts to update what is known and in particular what advances have been made in the past 5 years or so. It does not attempt to be comprehensive. Rather it focuses on the most controversial issues, which are actually few in number. They are: 1-Is the surface temperature record accurate or is it biased by heat from cities, etc.? 2-Is that record significantly different from past warmings such as the Medieval Warming Period? 3-Is not the sun’s increasing activity the cause of most of the warming? 4-Can we model climate and predict its future, or is it just too complex and chaotic? 5-Are there any other changes in climate other than warming, and can they be attributed to the warming?Despite continued uncertainties, the review finds affirmative answers to these questions. Of particular interest are advances that seem to explain why satellites do not see as much warming as surface instruments, how we are getting a good idea of recent paleoclimates, and why the 20th century temperature record was so complex. It makes the point that in each area new information could come to light that would change our thinking on the quantitative magnitude and timing of anthropogenic warming, but it is unlikely to alter the basic conclusions.Finally, there is a very brief discussion of the societal policy response to the scientific message, and the author comments on his 2-year email discussions with many of the world’s most outspoken critics of the

Warm natural inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishra, Hiranmaya; Mohanty, Subhendra; Nautiyal, Akhilesh

2012-01-01

In warm inflation models there is the requirement of generating large dissipative couplings of the inflaton with radiation, while at the same time, not de-stabilising the flatness of the inflaton potential due to radiative corrections. One way to achieve this without fine tuning unrelated couplings is by supersymmetry. In this Letter we show that if the inflaton and other light fields are pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone bosons then the radiative corrections to the potential are suppressed and the thermal corrections are small as long as the temperature is below the symmetry breaking scale. In such models it is possible to fulfil the contrary requirements of an inflaton potential which is stable under radiative corrections and the generation of a large dissipative coupling of the inflaton field with other light fields. We construct a warm inflation model which gives the observed CMB-anisotropy amplitude and spectral index where the symmetry breaking is at the GUT scale.

Interannual Variation of Surface Circulation in the Japan/East Sea due to External Forcings and Intrinsic Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Byoung-Ju; Cho, Seong Hun; Jung, Hee Seok; Lee, Sang-Ho; Byun, Do-Seong; Kwon, Kyungman

2018-03-01

The interannual variation of surface ocean currents can be as large as seasonal variation in the Japan/East Sea (JES). To identify the major factors that cause such interannual variability of surface ocean circulation in the JES, surface circulation was simulated from 1998 to 2009 using a three-dimensional model. Contributions of atmospheric forcing (ATM), open boundary data (OBC), and intrinsic variability (ITV) of the surface flow in the JES on the interannual variability of surface ocean circulation were separately examined using numerical simulations. Variability in surface circulation was quantified in terms of variance in sea surface height, 100-m depth water temperature, and surface currents. ITV was found to be the dominant factor that induced interannual variabilities of surface circulation, the main path of the East Korea Warm Current (EKWC), and surface kinetic energy on a time scale of 2-4 years. OBC and ATM were secondary factors contributing to the interannual variation of surface circulation. Interannual variation of ATM changed the separation latitude of EKWC and increased the variability of surface circulation in the Ulleung Basin. Interannual variation of OBC enhanced low-frequency changes in surface circulation and eddies in the Yamato Basin. It also modulated basin-wide uniform oscillations of sea level. This study suggests that precise estimation of initial conditions using data assimilation is essential for long-term prediction of surface circulation in the JES.

Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents.

Science.gov (United States)

Abram, Nerilie J; McGregor, Helen V; Tierney, Jessica E; Evans, Michael N; McKay, Nicholas P; Kaufman, Darrell S

2016-08-25

The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use post-ad 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account.

Enhanced deep ocean ventilation and oxygenation with global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Froelicher, T. L.; Jaccard, S.; Dunne, J. P.; Paynter, D.; Gruber, N.

2014-12-01

Twenty-first century coupled climate model simulations, observations from the recent past, and theoretical arguments suggest a consistent trend towards warmer ocean temperatures and fresher polar surface oceans in response to increased radiative forcing resulting in increased upper ocean stratification and reduced ventilation and oxygenation of the deep ocean. Paleo-proxy records of the warming at the end of the last ice age, however, suggests a different outcome, namely a better ventilated and oxygenated deep ocean with global warming. Here we use a four thousand year global warming simulation from a comprehensive Earth System Model (GFDL ESM2M) to show that this conundrum is a consequence of different rates of warming and that the deep ocean is actually better ventilated and oxygenated in a future warmer equilibrated climate consistent with paleo-proxy records. The enhanced deep ocean ventilation in the Southern Ocean occurs in spite of increased positive surface buoyancy fluxes and a constancy of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds - circumstances that would otherwise be expected to lead to a reduction in deep ocean ventilation. This ventilation recovery occurs through a global scale interaction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation undergoing a multi-centennial recovery after an initial century of transient decrease and transports salinity-rich waters inform the subtropical surface ocean to the Southern Ocean interior on multi-century timescales. The subsequent upwelling of salinity-rich waters in the Southern Ocean strips away the freshwater cap that maintains vertical stability and increases open ocean convection and the formation of Antarctic Bottom Waters. As a result, the global ocean oxygen content and the nutrient supply from the deep ocean to the surface are higher in a warmer ocean. The implications for past and future changes in ocean heat and carbon storage will be discussed.

Impact of global warming on the geobotanic zones: an experiment with a statistical-dynamical climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Franchito, Sergio H.; Brahmananda Rao, V. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Ciencia do Sistema Terrestre, CCST, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil); Moraes, E.C. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Divisao de Sensoriamento Remoto, DSR, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil)

2011-11-15

In this study, a zonally-averaged statistical climate model (SDM) is used to investigate the impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe. The model includes a parameterization of the biogeophysical feedback mechanism that links the state of surface to the atmosphere (a bidirectional interaction between vegetation and climate). In the control experiment (simulation of the present-day climate) the geobotanic state is well simulated by the model, so that the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe shows a very good agreement with the observed ones. The impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones is investigated considering the increase of CO{sub 2} concentration for the B1, A2 and A1FI scenarios. The results showed that the geobotanic zones over the entire earth can be modified in future due to global warming. Expansion of subtropical desert and semi-desert zones in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, retreat of glaciers and sea-ice, with the Arctic region being particularly affected and a reduction of the tropical rainforest and boreal forest can occur due to the increase of the greenhouse gases concentration. The effects were more pronounced in the A1FI and A2 scenarios compared with the B1 scenario. The SDM results confirm IPCC AR4 projections of future climate and are consistent with simulations of more complex GCMs, reinforcing the necessity of the mitigation of climate change associated to global warming. (orig.)

A Warming Surface but a Cooling Top of Atmosphere Associated with Warm, Moist Air Mass Advection over the Ice and Snow Covered Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Sedlar, J.

2015-12-01

Atmospheric advection of heat and moisture from lower latitudes to the high-latitude Arctic is a critical component of Earth's energy cycle. Large-scale advective events have been shown to make up a significant portion of the moist static energy budget of the Arctic atmosphere, even though such events are typically infrequent. The transport of heat and moisture over surfaces covered by ice and snow results in dynamic changes to the boundary layer structure, stability and turbulence, as well as to diabatic processes such as cloud distribution, microphysics and subsequent radiative effects. Recent studies have identified advection into the Arctic as a key mechanism for modulating the melt and freeze of snow and sea ice, via modification to all-sky longwave radiation. This paper examines the radiative impact during summer of such Arctic advective events at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), considering also the important role they play for the surface energy budget. Using infrared sounder measurements from the AIRS satellite, the summer frequency of significantly stable and moist advective events from 2003-2014 are characterized; justification of AIRS profiles over the Arctic are made using radiosoundings during a 3-month transect (ACSE) across the Eastern Arctic basin. One such event was observed within the East Siberian Sea in August 2014 during ACSE, providing in situ verification on the robustness and capability of AIRS to monitor advective cases. Results will highlight the important surface warming aspect of stable, moist instrusions. However a paradox emerges as such events also result in a cooling at the TOA evident on monthly mean TOA radiation. Thus such events have a climatic importance over ice and snow covered surfaces across the Arctic. ERA-Interim reanalyses are examined to provide a longer term perspective on the frequency of such events as well as providing capability to estimate meridional fluxes of moist static energy.

Hurricane Matthew (2016) and its Storm Surge Inundation under Global Warming Scenarios: Application of an Interactively Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model

Science.gov (United States)

Jisan, M. A.; Bao, S.; Pietrafesa, L.; Pullen, J.

2017-12-01

An interactively coupled atmosphere-ocean model was used to investigate the impacts of future ocean warming, both at the surface and the layers below, on the track and intensity of a hurricane and its associated storm surge and inundation. The category-5 hurricane Matthew (2016), which made landfall on the South Carolina coast of the United States, was used for the case study. Future ocean temperature changes and sea level rise (SLR) were estimated based on the projection of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. After being validated with the present-day observational data, the model was applied to simulate the changes in track, intensity, storm surge and inundation that Hurricane Matthew would cause under future climate change scenarios. It was found that a significant increase in hurricane intensity, storm surge water level, and inundation area for Hurricane Matthew under future ocean warming and SLR scenarios. For example, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the maximum wind speed would increase by 17 knots (14.2%), the minimum sea level pressure would decrease by 26 hPa (2.85%), and the inundated area would increase by 401 km2 (123%). By including the effect of SLR for the middle-21st-century scenario, the inundated area will further increase by up to 49.6%. The increase in the hurricane intensity and the inundated area was also found for the RCP 2.6 scenario. The response of sea surface temperature was analyzed to investigate the change in intensity. A comparison was made between the impacts when only the sea surface warming is considered versus when both the sea surface and the underneath layers are considered. These results showed that even without the effect of SLR, the storm surge level and the inundated area would be higher due to the increased hurricane intensity under the influence of the future warmer ocean temperature. The coupled effect of ocean warming and SLR would cause the

Mediterranean climate change and Indian Ocean warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Hurrel, J.

2006-01-01

General circulation model (GCM) responses to 20. century changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and greenhouse gases are diagnosed, with emphasis on their relationship to observed regional climate change over the Mediterranean region. A major question is whether the Mediterranean region's drying trend since 1950 can be understood as a consequence of the warming trend in tropical SSTs. We focus on the impact of Indian Ocean warming, which is itself the likely result of increasing greenhouse gases. It is discovered that a strong projection onto the positive polarity of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index characterizes the atmospheric response structure to the 1950-1999 warming of Indian Ocean SSTs. This influence appears to be robust in so far as it is reproduced in ensembles of experiments using three different GCMs. Both the equilibrium and transient responses to Indian Ocean warming are examined. Under each scenario, the latitude of prevailing mid latitude westerlies shifts poleward during the November-April period. The consequence is a drying of the Mediterranean region, whereas northern Europe and Scandinavia receive increased precipitation in concert with the poleward shift of storminess. The IPCC (TAR) 20. century coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations forced by observed greenhouse gas changes also yield a post-1950 drying trend over the Mediterranean. We argue that this feature of human-induced regional climate change is the outcome of a dynamical feedback, one involving Indian Ocean warming and a requisite adjustment of atmospheric circulation systems to such ocean warming

The super greenhouse effect in a warming world: the role of dynamics and thermodynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Kashinath, Karthik; O'Brien, Travis; Collins, William

2016-04-01

Over warm tropical oceans the increase in greenhouse trapping with increasing SST can be faster than that of the surface emission, resulting in a decrease in clear sky outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere (OLR) when SST increases, also known as the super greenhouse effect (SGE). If the SGE is directly linked to SST changes, there are profound implications for positive climate feedbacks in the tropics. We show that CMIP5 models perform well in simulating the observed clear-sky greenhouse effect in the present day. Using global warming experiments we show that the onset and shutdown SST of the SGE, as well as the magnitude of the SGE, increase as the convective threshold SST increases. To account for an increasing convective threshold SST we use an invariant coordinate for convection proposed in a recent study [Williams et al., GRL (2009)]. However, even after accounting for the increase in tropical SST (by normalizing the SGE by surface emission) and accounting for the increase in the threshold temperature for convection (by using the invariant coordinate) we find that the models predict a distinct increase in the clear-sky greenhouse effect in a warmed world. This suggests that thermodynamics (i.e. SST) plays a crucial role in regulating the increasing clear sky greenhouse effect in a warming world. We use theoretical arguments to estimate this increase in SGE and derive its dependence on SST. Finally, as shown in previous studies, we confirm that the increase in the clear-sky greenhouse effect is primarily due to upper tropospheric moistening. Although the absolute increase in upper tropospheric water vapor is small compared to that of the lower troposphere, since the absorptivity scales with fractional changes in water vapor, the contribution of the upper troposphere is more significant, as shown by Chung et al., PNAS (2014).

Effect of retreating sea ice on Arctic cloud cover in simulated recent global warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Abe

2016-11-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the effect of sea ice reduction on Arctic cloud cover in historical simulations with the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model MIROC5. Arctic sea ice has been substantially retreating since the 1980s, particularly in September, under simulated global warming conditions. The simulated sea ice reduction is consistent with satellite observations. On the other hand, Arctic cloud cover has been increasing in October, with about a 1-month lag behind the sea ice reduction. The delayed response leads to extensive sea ice reductions because the heat and moisture fluxes from the underlying open ocean into the atmosphere are enhanced. Sensitivity experiments with the atmospheric part of MIROC5 clearly show that sea ice reduction causes increases in cloud cover. Arctic cloud cover increases primarily in the lower troposphere, but it decreases in the near-surface layers just above the ocean; predominant temperature rises in these near-surface layers cause drying (i.e., decreases in relative humidity, despite increasing moisture flux. Cloud radiative forcing due to increases in cloud cover in autumn brings an increase in the surface downward longwave radiation (DLR by approximately 40–60 % compared to changes in clear-sky surface DLR in fall. These results suggest that an increase in Arctic cloud cover as a result of reduced sea ice coverage may bring further sea ice retreat and enhance the feedback processes of Arctic warming.

The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus.

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

2015-11-16

Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes.

The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

2015-01-01

Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes. PMID:26568024

Continuously amplified warming in the Alaskan Arctic: Implications for estimating global warming hiatus

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Kang; Zhang, Tingjun; Zhang, Xiangdong; Clow, Gary D.; Jafarov, Elchin E.; Overeem, Irina; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Peng, Xiaoqing; Cao, Bin

2017-01-01

Historically, in situ measurements have been notoriously sparse over the Arctic. As a consequence, the existing gridded data of surface air temperature (SAT) may have large biases in estimating the warming trend in this region. Using data from an expanded monitoring network with 31 stations in the Alaskan Arctic, we demonstrate that the SAT has increased by 2.19°C in this region, or at a rate of 0.23°C/decade during 1921–2015. Meanwhile, we found that the SAT warmed at 0.71°C/decade over 1998–2015, which is 2 to 3 times faster than the rate established from the gridded data sets. Focusing on the “hiatus” period 1998–2012 as identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the SAT has increased at 0.45°C/decade, which captures more than 90% of the regional trend for 1951–2012. We suggest that sparse in situ measurements are responsible for underestimation of the SAT change in the gridded data sets. It is likely that enhanced climate warming may also have happened in the other regions of the Arctic since the late 1990s but left undetected because of incomplete observational coverage.

Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, J. Keith; Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; Britten, Gregory L.; Lindsay, Keith; Long, Matthew; Doney, Scott C.; Mahowald, Natalie; Hoffman, Forrest; Randerson, James T.

2018-03-01

Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease by more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.

TOPEX/El Nino Watch - El Nino Warm Water Pool Decreasing, Jan, 08, 1998

Science.gov (United States)

1998-01-01

This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Jan. 8, 1998, and sea surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The volume of the warm water pool related to the El Nino has decreased by about 40 percent since its maximum in early November, but the area of the warm water pool is still about one and a half times the size of the continental United States. The volume measurements are computed as the sum of all the sea surface height changes as compared to normal ocean conditions. In addition, the maximum water temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific, as measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is still higher than normal. Until these high temperatures diminish, the El Nino warm water pool still has great potential to disrupt global weather because the high water temperatures directly influence the atmosphere. Oceanographers believe the recent decrease in the size of the warm water pool is a normal part of El Nino's natural rhythm. TOPEX/Poseidon has been tracking these fluctuations of the El Nino warm pool since it began in early 1997. These sea surface height measurements have provided scientists with their first detailed view of how El Nino's warm pool behaves because the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite measures the changing sea surface height with unprecedented precision. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken

Global warming: Economic policy responses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dornbusch, R.; Poterba, J.M.

1991-01-01

This volume contains the proceedings of a conference that brought together economic experts from Europe, the US, Latin America, and Japan to evaluate key issues in the policy debate in global warming. The following issues are at the center of debates on alternative policies to address global warming: scientific evidence on the magnitude of global warming and the extent to which it is due to human activities; availability of economic tools to control the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, and how vigorously should they be applied; and political economy considerations which influence the design of an international program for controlling greenhouse gases. Many perspectives are offered on the approaches to remedying environmental problems that are currently being pursued in Europe and the Pacific Rim. Deforestation in the Amazon is discussed, as well as ways to slow it. Public finance assessments are presented of both the domestic and international policy issues raised by plans to levy a tax on the carbon emissions from various fossil fuels. Nine chapters have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

Astrochronology of extreme global warming events during the early Eocene greenhouse climate

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lauretano, V.

2016-01-01

The early Eocene represents an ideal case study to analyse the impact of enhanced global warming on the ocean-atmosphere system and the relationship between carbon cycling and climate. During this time interval, the Earth’s surface experienced a long-term warming trend that culminated in a period of

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

OpenAIRE

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-01-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatmen...

Greenhouse science; Global warming: the origin and nature of alleged scientific consensus

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lindzen, R. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA (USA))

1992-01-01

The paper contends that there is not a scientific consensus on the existence of global warming. The scientific issues associated with the prediction of global warming are reviewed and it is concluded that there is no substantive basis for predictions of sizeable global warming due to observed increases in greenhouse gases such as CO[sub 2], methane and chlorofluorocarbons. The history of the current concern over global warming is described. Political aspects, scientists' concerns over funding and the desire of industrial companies to improve their public image by supporting environmental activists are some of the factors seen as responsible for the current global warming 'hysteria'. 6 figs.

Warm ion effects on kinetic drift cyclotron loss cone instabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo Shichong; Shen Jiewu; Cai Shidong

1988-01-01

The effects of adding warm plasmas on the kinetic DCLC mode in high β loss cone plasmas are investigated in detail. It is found that when the fluid DCLC mode is stabilized by a small amount of warm plasma, the kinetic excitation still remains due to two different mechanisms, namely, (1) magnetic drift resonance dissipation excites the negative energy wave; (2) a new type of positive energy wave can become unstable as the resonance condition is met. Comparing with fluid approximation theory, more warm plasmas are needed to suppress the kinetic DCLC instabilities

Chronic warming stimulates growth of marsh grasses more than mangroves in a coastal wetland ecotone.

Science.gov (United States)

Coldren, G A; Barreto, C R; Wykoff, D D; Morrissey, E M; Langley, J A; Feller, I C; Chapman, S K

2016-11-01

Increasing temperatures and a reduction in the frequency and severity of freezing events have been linked to species distribution shifts. Across the globe, mangrove ranges are expanding toward higher latitudes, likely due to diminishing frequency of freezing events associated with climate change. Continued warming will alter coastal wetland plant dynamics both above- and belowground, potentially altering plant capacity to keep up with sea level rise. We conducted an in situ warming experiment, in northeast Florida, to determine how increased temperature (+2°C) influences co-occurring mangrove and salt marsh plants. Warming was achieved using passive warming with three treatment levels (ambient, shade control, warmed). Avicennia germinans, the black mangrove, exhibited no differences in growth or height due to experimental warming, but displayed a warming-induced increase in leaf production (48%). Surprisingly, Distichlis spicata, the dominant salt marsh grass, increased in biomass (53% in 2013 and 70% in 2014), density (41%) and height (18%) with warming during summer months. Warming decreased plant root mass at depth and changed abundances of anaerobic bacterial taxa. Even while the poleward shift of mangroves is clearly controlled by the occurrences of severe freezes, chronic warming between these freeze events may slow the progression of mangrove dominance within ecotones. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Low clouds suppress Arctic air formation and amplify high-latitude continental winter warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Cronin, Timothy W; Tziperman, Eli

2015-09-15

High-latitude continents have warmed much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in winter, and the maintenance of warm, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in winter has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. We use an idealized single-column atmospheric model across a range of conditions to study the polar night process of air mass transformation from high-latitude maritime air, with a prescribed initial temperature profile, to much colder high-latitude continental air. We find that a low-cloud feedback--consisting of a robust increase in the duration of optically thick liquid clouds with warming of the initial state--slows radiative cooling of the surface and amplifies continental warming. This low-cloud feedback increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature, effectively suppressing Arctic air formation. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ∼ 10 d for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 °C. These results, supplemented by an analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 climate model runs that shows large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, suggest that the "lapse rate feedback" in simulations of anthropogenic climate change may be related to the influence of low clouds on the stratification of the lower troposphere. The results also indicate that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free winter continental interiors in equable climates.

Bathymetric controls on Pliocene North Atlantic and Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, M.M.; Valdes, P.J.; Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.; Hill, D.J.; Jones, S.M.

2011-01-01

The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; ~. 3.3 to 3.0. Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history in which global temperatures reached and remained at levels similar to those projected for the near future. The distribution of global warmth, however, was different than today in that the high latitudes warmed more than the tropics. Multiple temperature proxies indicate significant sea surface warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans during the MPWP, but predictions from a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (HadCM3) have so far been unable to fully predict the large scale of sea surface warming in the high latitudes. If climate proxies accurately represent Pliocene conditions, and if no weakness exists in the physics of the model, then model boundary conditions may be in error. Here we alter a single boundary condition (bathymetry) to examine if Pliocene high latitude warming was aided by an increase in poleward heat transport due to changes in the subsidence of North Atlantic Ocean ridges. We find an increase in both Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production in model experiments that incorporate a deepened Greenland-Scotland Ridge. These results offer both a mechanism for the warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans indicated by numerous proxies and an explanation for the apparent disparity between proxy data and model simulations of Pliocene northern North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean conditions. Determining the causes of Pliocene warmth remains critical to fully understanding comparisons of the Pliocene warm period to possible future climate change scenarios. ?? 2011.

The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus

Science.gov (United States)

Deser, Clara; Guo, Ruixia; Lehner, Flavio

2017-08-01

The recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming during boreal winter is examined from a regional perspective using 10-member initial-condition ensembles with two global coupled climate models in which observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (TPAC SSTAs) and radiative forcings are specified. Both models show considerable diversity in their surface air temperature (SAT) trend patterns across the members, attesting to the importance of internal variability beyond the tropical Pacific that is superimposed upon the response to TPAC SSTA and radiative forcing. Only one model shows a close relationship between the realism of its simulated GMST trends and SAT trend patterns. In this model, Eurasian cooling plays a dominant role in determining the GMST trend amplitude, just as in nature. In the most realistic member, intrinsic atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections forced by TPAC SSTA cause cooling over Eurasia (and North America), and contribute equally to its GMST trend.

Thyroid storm and warm autoimmune hemolytic anemia.

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Joseph A; Gliga, Louise; Nagalla, Srikanth

2017-08-01

Graves' disease is often associated with other autoimmune disorders, including rare associations with autoimmune hemolytic anemia (AIHA). We describe a unique presentation of thyroid storm and warm AIHA diagnosed concurrently in a young female with hyperthyroidism. The patient presented with nausea, vomiting, diarrhea and altered mental status. Laboratory studies revealed hemoglobin 3.9g/dL, platelets 171×10 9 L -1 , haptoglobin storm and warm AIHA. She was started on glucocorticoids to treat both warm AIHA and thyroid storm, as well as antithyroid medications, propranolol and folic acid. Due to profound anemia and hemodynamic instability, the patient was transfused two units of uncrossmatched packed red blood cells slowly and tolerated this well. She was discharged on methimazole as well as a prolonged prednisone taper, and achieved complete resolution of the thyrotoxicosis and anemia at one month. Hyperthyroidism can affect all three blood cell lineages of the hematopoietic system. Anemia can be seen in 10-20% of patients with thyrotoxicosis. Several autoimmune processes can lead to anemia in Graves' disease, including pernicious anemia, celiac disease, and warm AIHA. This case illustrates a rarely described presentation of a patient with Graves' disease presenting with concurrent thyroid storm and warm AIHA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global warming hiatus contributed to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Jiuwei; Zhan, Ruifen; Wang, Yuqing

2018-04-16

The recent global warming hiatus (GWH) was characterized by a La Niña-like cooling in the tropical Eastern Pacific accompanied with the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming. Here we show that the recent GWH contributed significantly to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia since 1998. The GWH associated sea surface temperature anomalies triggered a pair of anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic circulations and equatorial easterly anomalies over the Northwest Pacific, which favored TC genesis and intensification over the western Northwest Pacific but suppressed TC genesis and intensification over the southeastern Northwest Pacific due to increased vertical wind shear and anticyclonic circulation anomalies. Results from atmospheric general circulation model experiments demonstrate that the Pacific La Niña-like cooling dominated the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming in contributing to the observed GWH-related anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Northwest Pacific.

Springtime warming and reduced snow cover from carbonaceous particles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. G. Flanner

2009-04-01

Full Text Available Boreal spring climate is uniquely susceptible to solar warming mechanisms because it has expansive snow cover and receives relatively strong insolation. Carbonaceous particles can influence snow coverage by warming the atmosphere, reducing surface-incident solar energy (dimming, and reducing snow reflectance after deposition (darkening. We apply a range of models and observations to explore impacts of these processes on springtime climate, drawing several conclusions: 1 Nearly all atmospheric particles (those with visible-band single-scatter albedo less than 0.999, including all mixtures of black carbon (BC and organic matter (OM, increase net solar heating of the atmosphere-snow column. 2 Darkening caused by small concentrations of particles within snow exceeds the loss of absorbed energy from concurrent dimming, thus increasing solar heating of snowpack as well (positive net surface forcing. Over global snow, we estimate 6-fold greater surface forcing from darkening than dimming, caused by BC+OM. 3 Equilibrium climate experiments suggest that fossil fuel and biofuel emissions of BC+OM induce 95% as much springtime snow cover loss over Eurasia as anthropogenic carbon dioxide, a consequence of strong snow-albedo feedback and large BC+OM emissions from Asia. 4 Of 22 climate models contributing to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 21 underpredict the rapid warming (0.64°C decade⁻¹ observed over springtime Eurasia since 1979. Darkening from natural and anthropogenic sources of BC and mineral dust exerts 3-fold greater forcing on springtime snow over Eurasia (3.9 W m⁻² than North America (1.2 W m⁻². Inclusion of this forcing significantly improves simulated continental warming trends, but does not reconcile the low bias in rate of Eurasian spring snow cover decline exhibited by all models, likely because BC deposition trends are negative or near-neutral over much of Eurasia. Improved Eurasian

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Terra Data Confirm Warm, Dry U.S. Winter

Science.gov (United States)

2002-01-01

New maps of land surface temperature and snow cover produced by NASA's Terra satellite show this year's winter was warmer than last year's, and the snow line stayed farther north than normal. The observations confirm earlier National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports that the United States was unusually warm and dry this past winter. (Click to read the NASA press release and to access higher-resolution images.) For the last two years, a new sensor aboard Terra has been collecting the most detailed global measurements ever made of our world's land surface temperatures and snow cover. The Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is already giving scientists new insights into our changing planet. Average temperatures during December 2001 through February 2002 for the contiguous United States appear to have been unseasonably warm from the Rockies eastward. In the top image the coldest temperatures appear black, while dark green, blue, red, yellow, and white indicate progressively warmer temperatures. MODIS observes both land surface temperature and emissivity, which indicates how efficiently a surface absorbs and emits thermal radiation. Compared to the winter of 2000-01, temperatures throughout much of the U.S. were warmer in 2001-02. The bottom image depicts the differences on a scale from dark blue (colder this year than last) to red (warmer this year than last). A large region of warm temperatures dominated the northern Great Plains, while the area around the Great Salt Lake was a cold spot. Images courtesy Robert Simmon, NASA GSFC, based upon data courtesy Zhengming Wan, MODIS Land Science Team member at the University of California, Santa Barbara's Institute for Computational Earth System Science

Circumpolar dynamics of a marine top-predator track ocean warming rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Descamps, Sébastien; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Barrett, Robert T; Irons, David B; Merkel, Flemming; Robertson, Gregory J; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Mallory, Mark L; Montevecchi, William A; Boertmann, David; Artukhin, Yuri; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Signe; Erikstad, Kjell-Einar; Gilchrist, H Grant; Labansen, Aili L; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon; Mosbech, Anders; Olsen, Bergur; Petersen, Aevar; Rail, Jean-Francois; Renner, Heather M; Strøm, Hallvard; Systad, Geir H; Wilhelm, Sabina I; Zelenskaya, Larisa

2017-09-01

Global warming is a nonlinear process, and temperature may increase in a stepwise manner. Periods of abrupt warming can trigger persistent changes in the state of ecosystems, also called regime shifts. The responses of organisms to abrupt warming and associated regime shifts can be unlike responses to periods of slow or moderate change. Understanding of nonlinearity in the biological responses to climate warming is needed to assess the consequences of ongoing climate change. Here, we demonstrate that the population dynamics of a long-lived, wide-ranging marine predator are associated with changes in the rate of ocean warming. Data from 556 colonies of black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla distributed throughout its breeding range revealed that an abrupt warming of sea-surface temperature in the 1990s coincided with steep kittiwake population decline. Periods of moderate warming in sea temperatures did not seem to affect kittiwake dynamics. The rapid warming observed in the 1990s may have driven large-scale, circumpolar marine ecosystem shifts that strongly affected kittiwakes through bottom-up effects. Our study sheds light on the nonlinear response of a circumpolar seabird to large-scale changes in oceanographic conditions and indicates that marine top predators may be more sensitive to the rate of ocean warming rather than to warming itself. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Warm damper for a superconducting rotor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hooper, G.D.

1984-01-01

A warm damper for a superconducting rotor is described which uses a laminar assembly of a conductive tube and a plurality of support tubes. The conductive tube is soldered to axially adjacent support tubes and the resulting composite tube is explosively welded to two or more support tubes disposed adjacent to its radially inner and outer surfaces

A study of the radiative forcing and global warming potentials of hydrofluorocarbons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Hua; Wu Jinxiu; Lu Peng

2011-01-01

We developed a new radiation parameterization of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), using the correlated k-distribution method and the high-resolution transmission molecular absorption (HITRAN) 2004 database. We examined the instantaneous and stratospheric adjusted radiative efficiencies of HFCs for clear-sky and all-sky conditions. We also calculated the radiative forcing of HFCs from preindustrial times to the present and for future scenarios given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES, in short). Global warming potential and global temperature potential were then examined and compared on the basis of the calculated radiative efficiencies. Finally, we discuss surface temperature changes due to various HFC emissions.

Changes in Arctic vegetation amplify high-latitude warming through the greenhouse effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Swann, Abigail L; Fung, Inez Y; Levis, Samuel; Bonan, Gordon B; Doney, Scott C

2010-01-26

Arctic climate is projected to change dramatically in the next 100 years and increases in temperature will likely lead to changes in the distribution and makeup of the Arctic biosphere. A largely deciduous ecosystem has been suggested as a possible landscape for future Arctic vegetation and is seen in paleo-records of warm times in the past. Here we use a global climate model with an interactive terrestrial biosphere to investigate the effects of adding deciduous trees on bare ground at high northern latitudes. We find that the top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance from enhanced transpiration (associated with the expanded forest cover) is up to 1.5 times larger than the forcing due to albedo change from the forest. Furthermore, the greenhouse warming by additional water vapor melts sea-ice and triggers a positive feedback through changes in ocean albedo and evaporation. Land surface albedo change is considered to be the dominant mechanism by which trees directly modify climate at high-latitudes, but our findings suggest an additional mechanism through transpiration of water vapor and feedbacks from the ocean and sea-ice.

On the influence of simulated SST warming on rainfall projections in the Indo-Pacific domain: an AGCM study

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Huqiang; Zhao, Y.; Moise, A.; Ye, H.; Colman, R.; Roff, G.; Zhao, M.

2018-02-01

Significant uncertainty exists in regional climate change projections, particularly for rainfall and other hydro-climate variables. In this study, we conduct a series of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments with different future sea surface temperature (SST) warming simulated by a range of coupled climate models. They allow us to assess the extent to which uncertainty from current coupled climate model rainfall projections can be attributed to their simulated SST warming. Nine CMIP5 model-simulated global SST warming anomalies have been super-imposed onto the current SSTs simulated by the Australian climate model ACCESS1.3. The ACCESS1.3 SST-forced experiments closely reproduce rainfall means and interannual variations as in its own fully coupled experiments. Although different global SST warming intensities explain well the inter-model difference in global mean precipitation changes, at regional scales the SST influence vary significantly. SST warming explains about 20-25% of the patterns of precipitation changes in each of the four/five models in its rainfall projections over the oceans in the Indo-Pacific domain, but there are also a couple of models in which different SST warming explains little of their precipitation pattern changes. The influence is weaker again for rainfall changes over land. Roughly similar levels of contribution can be attributed to different atmospheric responses to SST warming in these models. The weak SST influence in our study could be due to the experimental setup applied: superimposing different SST warming anomalies onto the same SSTs simulated for current climate by ACCESS1.3 rather than directly using model-simulated past and future SSTs. Similar modelling and analysis from other modelling groups with more carefully designed experiments are needed to tease out uncertainties caused by different SST warming patterns, different SST mean biases and different model physical/dynamical responses to the same underlying

Experimental Warming Aggravates Degradation-Induced Topsoil Drought in Alpine Meadows of The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, X.

2017-12-01

Climatic warming is presumed to cause topsoil drought by increasing evapotranspiration and water infiltration, and by progressively inducing land degradation in alpine meadows of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. However, how soil moisture and temperature patterns of degraded alpine meadows respond to climate warming remains unclear. A six-year continuous warming experiment was carried out in both degraded and undegraded alpine meadows in the source region of the Yangtze River. The goal was to identify the effects of climatic warming and land degradation on soil moisture (θ), soil surface temperature (Tsfc), and soil temperature (Ts). In the present study, land degradation significantly reduced θ by 4.5-6.1% at a depth of 0-100 cm (P soil surface. Experimental warming aggravated topsoil drought caused by land degradation, intensified the magnitude of degradation, and caused a positive feedback in the degraded alpine meadow ecosystem. Therefore, an immediate need exists to restore degraded alpine meadow grasslands in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in anticipation of a warmer future.

An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Jian; Liu, Qinyu; Wang, Chuanyang

2018-03-01

Studies have shown that global warming over the past six decades can weaken the tropical Pacific Walker circulation and maintain the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Based on observations and model simulations, another aftereffect of global warming on IPO is found. After removing linear trends (global warming signals) from observations, however, the tropical Pacific climate still exhibited some obvious differences between two IPO negative phases. The boreal winter (DJF) equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) was colder during the 1999-2014 period (P2) than that during 1961-1976 (P1). This difference may have been a result of global warming nonlinear modulation of precipitation; i.e., in the climatological rainy region, the core area of the tropical Indo-western Pacific warm pool receives more precipitation through the "wet-get-wetter" mechanism. Positive precipitation anomalies in the warm pool during P2 are much stronger than those during P1, even after subtracting the linear trend. Corresponding to the differences of precipitation, the Pacific Walker circulation is stronger in P2 than in P1. Consequent easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific led to a colder equatorial eastern-central Pacific during P2. Therefore, tropical Pacific climate differences between the two negative IPO phases are aftereffects of global warming. These aftereffects are supported by the results of coupled climate model experiments, with and without global warming.

EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

OpenAIRE

Dr. Basanti Jain

2017-01-01

The abnormal increase in the concentration of the greenhouse gases is resulting in higher temperatures. We call this effect is global warming. The average temperature around the world has increased about 1'c over 140 years, 75% of this has risen just over the past 30 years. The solar radiation, as it reaches the earth, produces "greenhouse effect" in the atmosphere. The thick atmospheric layers over the earth behaves as a glass surface, as it permits short wave radiations from coming in, but ...

Effects of warming on the structure and function of a boreal black spruce forest

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stith T.Gower

2010-03-03

net primary production (NPP) budgets. Autotrophic respiration budgets will be constructed using chamber measurements for each tissue and NPP and standard allometry techniques (Gower et al. 1999). (4) Compare microbial and root dynamics, and net soil surface CO2 flux, of control and warmed soils to identify causes that may explain the hypothesized minimal effect of soil warming on soil surface CO2 flux. Fine root production and turnover will be quantified using minirhizotrons, and microbial dynamics will be determined using laboratory mineralization incubations. Soil surface CO2 flux will be measured using automated soil surface CO2 flux systems and portable CO2 analyzers. The proposed study builds on the existing research programs Gower has in northern Manitoba and would not be possible without in-kind services and financial support from Manitoba Hydro and University of Wisconsin.

The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes

Science.gov (United States)

Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Cayan, D.R.; Vano, J.A.; Lettenmaier, D.P.

2011-01-01

Warm season climate warming will be a key driver of annual streamflow changes in four major river basins of the western U.S., as shown by hydrological model simulations using fixed precipitation and idealized seasonal temperature changes based on climate projections with SRES A2 forcing. Warm season (April-September) warming reduces streamflow throughout the year; streamflow declines both immediately and in the subsequent cool season. Cool season (October-March) warming, by contrast, increases streamflow immediately, partially compensating for streamflow reductions during the subsequent warm season. A uniform warm season warming of 3C drives a wide range of annual flow declines across the basins: 13.3%, 7.2%, 1.8%, and 3.6% in the Colorado, Columbia, Northern and Southern Sierra basins, respectively. The same warming applied during the cool season gives annual declines of only 3.5%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 3.1%, respectively. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

2016-01-01

Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection. PMID:26838053

Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection.

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

2016-02-03

Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection.

Global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

Canada's Green Plan strategy for dealing with global warming is being implemented as a multidepartmental partnership involving all Canadians and the international community. Many of the elements of this strategy are built on an existing base of activities predating the Green Plan. Elements of the strategy include programs to limit emissions of greenhouse gases, such as initiatives to encourage more energy-efficient practices and development of alternate fuel sources; studies and policy developments to help Canadians prepare and adapt to climate change; research on the global warming phenomenon; and stimulation of international action on global warming, including obligations arising out of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All the program elements have been approved, funded, and announced. Major achievements to date are summarized, including improvements in the Energy Efficiency Act, studies on the socioeconomic impacts of global warming, and participation in monitoring networks. Milestones associated with the remaining global warming initiatives are listed

Biofilm Composition and Threshold Concentration for Growth of Legionella pneumophila on Surfaces Exposed to Flowing Warm Tap Water without Disinfectant.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Kooij, Dick; Bakker, Geo L; Italiaander, Ronald; Veenendaal, Harm R; Wullings, Bart A

2017-03-01

Legionella pneumophila in potable water installations poses a potential health risk, but quantitative information about its replication in biofilms in relation to water quality is scarce. Therefore, biofilm formation on the surfaces of glass and chlorinated polyvinyl chloride (CPVC) in contact with tap water at 34 to 39°C was investigated under controlled hydraulic conditions in a model system inoculated with biofilm-grown L. pneumophila The biofilm on glass (average steady-state concentration, 23 ± 9 pg ATP cm -2 ) exposed to treated aerobic groundwater (0.3 mg C liter -1 ; 1 μg assimilable organic carbon [AOC] liter -1 ) did not support growth of the organism, which also disappeared from the biofilm on CPVC (49 ± 9 pg ATP cm -2 ) after initial growth. L. pneumophila attained a level of 4.3 log CFU cm -2 in the biofilms on glass (1,055 ± 225 pg ATP cm -2 ) and CPVC (2,755 ± 460 pg ATP cm -2 ) exposed to treated anaerobic groundwater (7.9 mg C liter -1 ; 10 μg AOC liter -1 ). An elevated biofilm concentration and growth of L. pneumophila were also observed with tap water from the laboratory. The Betaproteobacteria Piscinibacter and Methyloversatilis and amoeba-resisting Alphaproteobacteria predominated in the clones and isolates retrieved from the biofilms. In the biofilms, the Legionella colony count correlated significantly with the total cell count (TCC), heterotrophic plate count, ATP concentration, and presence of Vermamoeba vermiformis This amoeba was rarely detected at biofilm concentrations of water-associated disease outbreaks reported in the United States. The organism proliferates in biofilms on surfaces exposed to warm water in engineered freshwater installations. An investigation with a test system supplied with different types of warm drinking water without disinfectant under controlled hydraulic conditions showed that treated aerobic groundwater (0.3 mg liter -1 of organic carbon) induced a low biofilm concentration that supported no or very

Warm forming simulation of Al-Mg sheet

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kurukuri, S.; van den Boogaard, Antonius H.; Miroux, A.; Holmedal, B.

2009-01-01

The accuracy of warm forming simulations depends to a large extend on the description of the yield surface with temperature and strain-rate dependent hardening and on the modeling of friction. In this paper, the anisotropic behavior of the sheet is described by using the Vegter yield locus, which is

Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Munguía-Vega, Adrián; Beger, Maria; Del Mar Mancha-Cisneros, Maria; Suárez-Castillo, Alvin N; Gurney, Georgina G; Pressey, Robert L; Gerber, Leah R; Morzaria-Luna, Hem Nalini; Reyes-Bonilla, Héctor; Adams, Vanessa M; Kolb, Melanie; Graham, Erin M; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Castillo-López, Alejandro; Hinojosa-Arango, Gustavo; Petatán-Ramírez, David; Moreno-Baez, Marcia; Godínez-Reyes, Carlos R; Torre, Jorge

2018-02-01

Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well-connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean-warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph-theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance-weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better-connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation-only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of

Evaluation of NASA GEOS-ADAS Modeled Diurnal Warming Through Comparisons to SEVIRI and AMSR2 SST Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Gentemann, C. L.; Akella, S.

2018-02-01

An analysis of the ocean skin Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has been included in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) - Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS), Version 5 (GEOS-ADAS). This analysis is based on the GEOS atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) that simulates near-surface diurnal warming and cool skin effects. Analysis for the skin SST is performed along with the atmospheric state, including Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite radiance observations as part of the data assimilation system. One month (September, 2015) of GEOS-ADAS SSTs were compared to collocated satellite Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) SSTs to examine how the GEOS-ADAS diurnal warming compares to the satellite measured warming. The spatial distribution of warming compares well to the satellite observed distributions. Specific diurnal events are analyzed to examine variability within a single day. The dependence of diurnal warming on wind speed, time of day, and daily average insolation is also examined. Overall the magnitude of GEOS-ADAS warming is similar to the warming inferred from satellite retrievals, but several weaknesses in the GEOS-AGCM simulated diurnal warming are identified and directly related back to specific features in the formulation of the diurnal warming model.

Springback of aluminum alloy brazing sheet in warm forming

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Kyu Bin; George, Ryan; Kurukuri, Srihari; Worswick, Michael J.; Winkler, Sooky

2017-10-01

The use of aluminum is increasing in the automotive industry due to its high strength-to-weight ratio, recyclability and corrosion resistance. However, aluminum is prone to significant springback due to its low elastic modulus coupled with its high strength. In this paper, a warm forming process is studied to improve the springback characteristics of 0.2 mm thick brazing sheet with an AA3003 core and AA4045 clad. Warm forming decreases springback by lowering the flow stress. The parts formed have complex features and geometries that are representative of automotive heat exchangers. The key objective is to utilize warm forming to control the springback to improve the part flatness which enables the use of harder temper material with improved strength. The experiments are performed by using heated dies at several different temperatures up to 350 °C and the blanks are pre-heated in the dies. The measured springback showed a reduction in curvature and improved flatness after forming at higher temperatures, particularly for the harder temper material conditions.

Understanding the El Niño-like Oceanic Response in the Tropical Pacific to Global Warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai; Liu, Wei

2015-10-10

The enhanced central and eastern Pacific SST warming and the associated ocean processes under global warming are investigated using the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2). The tropical SST warming pattern in the coupled CESM can be faithfully reproduced by the POP2 forced with surface fluxes computed using the aerodynamic bulk formula. By prescribing the wind stress and/or wind speed through the bulk formula, the effects of wind stress change and/or the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback are isolated and their linearity is evaluated in this ocean-alone setting. Result shows that, although the weakening of the equatorial easterlies contributes positively to the El Niño-like SST warming, 80% of which can be simulated by the POP2 without considering the effects of wind change in both mechanical and thermodynamic fluxes. This result points to the importance of the air-sea thermal interaction and the relative feebleness of the ocean dynamical process in the El Niño-like equatorial Pacific SST response to global warming. On the other hand, the wind stress change is found to play a dominant role in the oceanic response in the tropical Pacific, accounting for most of the changes in the equatorial ocean current system and thermal structures, including the weakening of the surface westward currents, the enhancement of the near-surface stratification and the shoaling of the equatorial thermocline. Interestingly, greenhouse gas warming in the absence of wind stress change and WES feedback also contributes substantially to the changes at the subsurface equatorial Pacific. Further, this warming impact can be largely replicated by an idealized ocean experiment forced by a uniform surface heat flux, whereby, arguably, a purest form of oceanic dynamical thermostat is revealed.

Wind changes above warm Agulhas Current eddies

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Rouault, M

2016-01-01

Full Text Available speeds above the eddies at the instantaneous scale; 20 % of cases had incomplete data due to partial global coverage by the scatterometer for one path. For cases where the wind is stronger above warm eddies, there is no relationship between the increase...

Characterizing and attributing the warming trend in sea and land surface temperatures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Estrada, Francisco; Martins, Luis Filipe; Perron, Pierre

2017-01-01

Because of low-frequency internal variability, the observed and underlying warming trends in temperature series can be markedly different. Important differences in the observed nonlinear trends in hemispheric temperature series suggest that the northern and southern hemispheres have responded

On some aspects of Indian Ocean warm pool

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Saji, P.K.; Balchand, A.N.; RameshKumar, M.R.

Annual and interannual variation of Indian Ocean Warm Pool (IOWP) was studied using satellite and in situ ocean temperature data IOWP surface area undergoes a strong annual cycle attaining a maximum of 24x10⁶km² during April...

Microstructural evolution in warm-rolled and cold-rolled strip cast 6.5 wt% Si steel thin sheets and its influence on magnetic properties

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Xianglong, E-mail: 215454278@qq.com; Liu, Zhenyu, E-mail: zyliu@mail.neu.edu.cn; Li, Haoze; Wang, Guodong

2017-07-01

Highlights: • The experimental materials used in the study are based on strip casting. • Magnetic properties between warm rolled and cold rolled sheets are investigated. • Cold rolled 6.5% Si sheet has better magnetic properties than warm rolled sheet. • The γ and λ-fiber recrystallization textures can be optimized after cold rolling. • Cold rolling should be more suitable for fabricating 6.5% Si steel thin sheets. - Abstract: 6.5 wt% Si steel thin sheets were usually fabricated by warm rolling. In our previous work, 6.5 wt% Si steel thin sheets with good magnetic properties had been successfully fabricated by cold rolling based on strip casting. In the present work, the main purposes were to find out the influences of warm rolling and cold rolling on microstructures and magnetic properties of the thin sheets with the thickness of 0.2 mm, and to confirm which rolling method was more suitable for fabricating 6.5 wt% Si steel thin sheets. The results showed that the cold rolled sheet could obtain good surface quality and flatness, while the warm rolled sheet could not. The intensity of γ-fiber rolling texture (<1 1 1>//ND) of cold rolled specimen was weaker than that of the warm rolled specimen, especially for the {1 1 1}<1 1 2> component at surface layer and {1 1 1}<1 1 0> component at center layer. After the same annealing treatment, the cold rolled specimen, which had higher stored energy and weaker intensity of γ-fiber rolling texture, could obtain smaller recrystallization grain size, weaker intensity of γ-fiber recrystallization texture and stronger intensity of λ-fiber recrystallization texture. Therefore, due to the good surface quality, smaller recrystallization grain size and optimum recrystallization texture, the cold rolled specimen possessed improved magnetic properties, and cold rolling should be more suitable for fabricating 6.5 wt% Si steel thin sheets.

Anomalous surface behavior of hydrated guanidinium ions due to ion pairing

Science.gov (United States)

Ekholm, Victor; Vazdar, Mario; Mason, Philip E.; Bialik, Erik; Walz, Marie-Madeleine; Öhrwall, Gunnar; Werner, Josephina; Rubensson, Jan-Erik; Jungwirth, Pavel; Björneholm, Olle

2018-04-01

Surface affinity of aqueous guanidinium chloride (GdmCl) is compared to that of aqueous tetrapropylammonium chloride (TPACl) upon addition of sodium chloride (NaCl) or disodium sulfate (Na2SO4). The experimental results have been acquired using the surface sensitive technique X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy on a liquid jet. Molecular dynamics simulations have been used to produce radial distribution functions and surface density plots. The surface affinities of both TPA+ and Gdm+ increase upon adding NaCl to the solution. With the addition of Na2SO4, the surface affinity of TPA+ increases, while that of Gdm+ decreases. From the results of MD simulations it is seen that Gdm+ and SO4 2 - ions form pairs. This finding can be used to explain the decreased surface affinity of Gdm+ when co-dissolved with SO4 2 - ions. Since SO4 2 - ions avoid the surface due to the double charge and strong water interaction, the Gdm+-SO4 2 - ion pair resides deeper in the solutions' bulk than the Gdm+ ions. Since TPA+ does not form ion pairs with SO4 2 -, the TPA+ ions are instead enriched at the surface.

Arctic Sea Ice Basal Melt Onset Variability and Associated Ocean Surface Heating

Science.gov (United States)

Merrick, R. A.; Hutchings, J. K.

2015-12-01

The interannual and regional variability in Arctic sea ice melt has previously been characterized only in terms of surface melting. A focus on the variability in the onset of basal melt is additionally required to understand Arctic melt patterns. Monitoring basal melt provides a glimpse into the importance of ocean heating to sea ice melt. This warming is predominantly through seawater exposure due to lead opening and the associated solar warming at the ocean's surface. We present the temporal variability in basal melt onset observed by ice mass balance buoys throughout the Arctic Ocean since 2003, providing a different perspective than the satellite microwave data used to measure the onset of surface melt. We found that melt onset varies greatly, even for buoys deployed within 100km of each other. Therefore large volumes of data are necessary to accurately estimate the variability of basal melt onset. Once the variability of basal melt onset has been identified, we can investigate how this range has been changing as a response to atmospheric and oceanic warming, changes in ice morphology as well as the intensification of the ice albedo feedback.

Exceptional Air Mass Transport and Dynamical Drivers of an Extreme Wintertime Arctic Warm Event

Science.gov (United States)

Binder, Hanin; Boettcher, Maxi; Grams, Christian M.; Joos, Hanna; Pfahl, Stephan; Wernli, Heini

2017-12-01

At the turn of the years 2015/2016, maximum surface temperature in the Arctic reached record-high values, exceeding the melting point, which led to a strong reduction of the Arctic sea ice extent in the middle of the cold season. Here we show, using a Lagrangian method, that a combination of very different airstreams contributed to this event: (i) warm low-level air of subtropical origin, (ii) initially cold low-level air of polar origin heated by surface fluxes, and (iii) strongly descending air heated by adiabatic compression. The poleward transport of these warm airstreams occurred along an intense low-level jet between a series of cyclones and a quasi-stationary anticyclone. The complex 3-D configuration that enabled this transport was facilitated by continuous warm conveyor belt ascent into the upper part of the anticyclone. This study emphasizes the combined role of multiple transport processes and transient synoptic-scale dynamics for establishing an extreme Arctic warm event.

How does ocean ventilation change under global warming?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Gnanadesikan

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Since the upper ocean takes up much of the heat added to the earth system by anthropogenic global warming, one would expect that global warming would lead to an increase in stratification and a decrease in the ventilation of the ocean interior. However, multiple simulations in global coupled climate models using an ideal age tracer which is set to zero in the mixed layer and ages at 1 yr/yr outside this layer show that the intermediate depths in the low latitudes, Northwest Atlantic, and parts of the Arctic Ocean become younger under global warming. This paper reconciles these apparently contradictory trends, showing that the decreases result from changes in the relative contributions of old deep waters and younger surface waters. Implications for the tropical oxygen minimum zones, which play a critical role in global biogeochemical cycling are considered in detail.

Soil warming for utilization and dissipation of waste heat from power generation in Pennsylvania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeWalle, D.R.

1977-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to describe the Penn State research project, which studies the soil warming by circulation of heated power plant discharge water through a buried pipe network. Waste heat can be utilized by soil warming for increased crop growth in open fields with proper selection of crops and cropping systems. Dissipation of waste heat from a buried pipe network can be predicted using either of two steady-state conduction equations tested. Accurate predictions are dependent upon estimates of the pipe outer-surface temperatures, soil surface temperatures in heated soil and soil thermal conductivity. The effect of economic optimization on soil-warming land area requirements for a 1500 MWe power plant in Pennsylvania is presented. (M.S.)

Nanoscale study on water damage for different warm mix asphalt binders

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kefei Liu

2016-11-01

Full Text Available In order to analyze the water damage to different warm mix asphalt binders from the micro scale, five kinds of asphalt binders, 70#A base asphalt, sasobit warm mix asphalt, energy champion 120 °C (EC120 warm mix asphalt, aspha-min warm mix asphalt, sulfur-extended asphalt modifier (SEAM warm mix asphalt, under different conditions (dry/wet, original/aging are prepared for laboratory tests. The atomic force microscope (AFM is used to observe the surface properties and measure the adhesion force between the asphalt and the mineral aggregate. The obtained results show that under the dry condition aspha-min warm mix asphalt and SEAM warm mix asphalt show stronger adhesive ability with the mineral aggregate compared with other asphalt binders, but also have relatively large dispersion and fluctuation in the tested results; under the wet condition, aspha-min warm mix asphalt and SEAM warm mix asphalt show stronger water damage resistance ability. The EC120 warm mix asphalt and aspha-min warm mix asphalt are less sensitive to moist, and their corresponding adhesion force is less susceptible to the change of external moisture conditions, leading to a better ability to resist water erosion. The aging process significantly lowers the moisture erosion resistance ability, which further impairs the water damage resistance ability. The base asphalt is more sensitive to moisture and more vulnerable to water damage, no matter whether it is under original or aging conditions. The aging aspha-min warm mix asphalt has the least loss of adhesion force, the smallest dispersion of the tested adhesion force, the strongest water damage resistance ability, no matter it is dry or wet. Keywords: Road engineering, Warm mix asphalt, Moisture damage, Atomic force microscope, Microcosmic

Warming slowdown over the Tibetan plateau in recent decades

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yaojie; Zhang, Yangjian; Zhu, Juntao; Huang, Ke; Zu, Jiaxing; Chen, Ning; Cong, Nan; Stegehuis, Annemiek Irene

2018-03-01

As the recent global warming hiatus and the warming on high elevations are attracting worldwide attention, this study examined the robustness of the warming slowdown over the Tibetan plateau (TP) and its related driving forces. By integrating multiple-source data from 1982 to 2015 and using trend analysis, we found that the mean temperature (T mean), maximum temperature (T max) and minimum temperature (T min) showed a slowdown of the warming trend around 1998, during the period of the global warming hiatus. This was found over both the growing season (GS) and non-growing season (NGS) and suggested a robust warming hiatus over the TP. Due to the differences in trends of T max and T min, the trend of diurnal temperature range (DTR) also shifted after 1998, especially during the GS temperature. The warming rate was spatially heterogeneous. The northern TP (NTP) experienced more warming than the southern TP (STP) in all seasons from 1982 to 1998, while the pattern was reversed in the period from 1998 to 2015. Water vapour was found to be the main driving force for the trend in T mean and T min by influencing downward long wave radiation. Sunshine duration was the main driving force behind the trend in T max and DTR through a change in downward shortwave radiation that altered the energy source of daytime temperature. Water vapour was the major driving force for temperature change over the NTP, while over the STP, sunshine duration dominated the temperature trend.

Hydrological Response of Alpine Wetlands to Climate Warming in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenjiang Zhang

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Alpine wetlands in the Tibetan Plateau (TP play a crucial role in the regional hydrological cycle due to their strong influence on surface ecohydrological processes; therefore, understanding how TP wetlands respond to climate change is essential for projecting their future condition and potential vulnerability. We investigated the hydrological responses of a large TP wetland complex to recent climate change, by combining multiple satellite observations and in-situ hydro-meteorological records. We found different responses of runoff production to regional warming trends among three basins with similar climate, topography and vegetation cover but different wetland proportions. The basin with larger wetland proportion (40.1% had a lower mean runoff coefficient (0.173 ± 0.006, and also showed increasingly lower runoff level (−3.9% year−1, p = 0.002 than the two adjacent basins. The satellite-based observations showed an increasing trend of annual non-frozen period, especially in the wetland-dominated region (2.64 day·year−1, p < 0.10, and a strong extension of vegetation growing-season (0.26–0.41 day·year−1, p < 0.10. Relatively strong increasing trends in evapotranspiration (ET (~1.00 mm·year−1, p < 0.01 and the vertical temperature gradient above ground surface (0.043 °C·year−1, p < 0.05 in wetland-dominant areas were documented from satellite-based ET observations and weather station records. These results indicate recent surface drying and runoff reduction of alpine wetlands, and their potential vulnerability to degradation with continued climate warming.

Global Warming In A Regional Model of The Atlantic Ocean - Echam4/opyc3 In Flame 4/3

Science.gov (United States)

Schweckendiek, U.; Willebrand, J.

The reaction of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) in most climate models on global warming scenarios is a weakening of the THC. An exception is the ECHAM4/OPYC3 simulation whose stable behaviour is traced back to a strongly enhanced evaporation and as a consequence to a development of a salt anomaly in the tropics and subtropics of the Atlantic Ocean (Latif et al.,2000). This salt signal is advected into convection regions and compensates the reduction of surface density due to surface heating and freshening. To examine this scenario for a more realistic ocean model, data from this model is used to drive a reginal model of the Atlantic Ocean. In order to test the crucial mechanisms for the maintainance of the meridional overturning, we have performed sensitivity studies by focussing on different combinations of the anomalous freshwater and heat fluxes. The results demonstrate that for the stabilising effect to become effective the salt sig- nal has to enter the GIN-Seas and subsequently the overflow waters, underlining the importance of the overflows for the THC. The Labrador Sea Convection is however uneffected by this stabilising salt signal and its convection ultimatly breaks down un- der surface warming and freshening.

Focus: Assessing the regional impacts of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woo, Mingko

1992-01-01

Five studies are presented which assess the impacts of global warming on physical, economic, and social systems in Canada. A study on the use of climatic change scenarios to estimate ecoclimatic impacts was carried out. These scenarios may include synthetic scenarios produced from historical data, global climate model (GCM) simulations, and hybrid scenarios. The advantages and drawbacks of various scenarios are discussed along with the criteria for selecting impact assessment models. An examination of water resources in the Great Lakes and the Saskatchewan River subbasin uses case studies of two areas that have experienced wide hydrological variations due to climatic variability in order to determine the impacts of global warming scenarios on net basin supply. Problems of developing regional models are discussed and results of projected changes in net basin supply are presented for GCM-based simulations and hypothetical warming scenarios. A study of the impacts of climate warming on transportation and the regional economy in northern Canada uses stochastic models to provide examples of how Mackenzie River barge traffic will be affected. The economic impacts of the resultant lengthened shipping season are outlined under three scenarios. The implications of climatic change on Ontario agriculture are assessed according to GCM scenarios. Results are presented for crop yields and production as well as land resource suitability. Finally, sociocultural implications of global warming on the Arctic and the Inuit are summarized, with reference to a past warming episode occurring around the year 1000. 45 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs

A Contribution by Ice Nuclei to Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Xiping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Zhang, Minghua; Hou, Arthur Y.; Xie, Shaocheng; Lang, Stephen; Li, Xiaowen; Starr, David O.; Li, Xiaofan

2009-01-01

Ice nuclei (IN) significantly affect clouds via supercooled droplets, that in turn modulate atmospheric radiation and thus climate change. Since the IN effect is relatively strong in stratiform clouds but weak in convective ones, the overall effect depends on the ratio of stratiform to convective cloud amount. In this paper, 10 years of TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite data are analyzed to confirm that stratiform precipitation fraction increases with increasing latitude, which implies that the IN effect is stronger at higher latitudes. To quantitatively evaluate the IN effect versus latitude, large-scale forcing data from ten field campaigns are used to drive a CRM (cloud-resolving model) to generate longterm cloud simulations. As revealed in the simulations, the increase in the net downward radiative flux at the TOA (top of the atmosphere) from doubling the current IN concentrations is larger at higher latitude, which is attributed to the meridional tendency in the stratiform precipitation fraction. Surface warming from doubling the IN concentrations, based on the radiative balance of the globe, is compared with that from anthropogenic COZ . It is found that the former effect is stronger than the latter in middle and high latitudes but not in the Tropics. With regard to the impact of IN on global warming, there are two factors to consider: the radiative effect from increasing the IN concentration and the increase in IN concentration itself. The former relies on cloud ensembles and thus varies mainly with latitude. In contrast, the latter relies on IN sources (e.g., the land surface distribution) and thus varies not only with latitude but also longitude. Global desertification and industrialization provide clues on the geographic variation of the increase in IN concentration since pre-industrial times. Thus, their effect on global warming can be inferred and then be compared with observations. A general match in geographic and seasonal

Greenhouse warming and changes in sea level

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oerlemans, J.

1989-01-01

It is likely that the anticipated warming due to the effect of increasing concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will lead to a further and faster rise in world mean sea level. There are many processes in the climate system controlling sea level, but the most important

TOPEX/El Nino Watch - Warm Water Pool is Increasing, Nov. 10, 1997

Science.gov (United States)

1997-01-01

This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S./French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Nov. 10, 1997. The volume of extra warm surface water (shown in white) in the core of the El Nino continues to increase, especially in the area between 15 degrees south latitude and 15 degrees north latitude in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The area of low sea level (shown in purple) has decreased somewhat from late October. The white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 centimeters and 32 cm (6 inches to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it is about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The surface area covered by the warm water mass is about one-and-one-half times the size of the continental United States. The added amount of oceanic warm water near the Americas, with a temperature between 21 to 30 degrees Celsius (70 to 85 degrees Fahrenheit), is about 30 times the volume of water in all the U.S. Great Lakes combined. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white areas) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using these global data, limited regional measurements from buoys and ships, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmospheric system, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

A sensitivity study to global desertification in cold and warm climates: results from the IPSL OAGCM model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alkama, Ramdane [GAME/CNRM, CNRS/Meteo-France, Toulouse (France); Kageyama, Masa; Ramstein, Gilles [LSCE/IPSL UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ 8212, Gif sur Yvette (France)

2012-04-15

Many simulations have been devoted to study the impact of global desertification on climate, but very few have quantified this impact in very different climate contexts. Here, the climatic impacts of large-scale global desertification in warm (2100 under the SRES A2 scenario forcing), modern and cold (Last Glacial Maximum, 21 thousand years ago) climates are assessed by using the IPSL OAGCM. For each climate, two simulations have been performed, one in which the continents are covered by modern vegetation, the other in which global vegetation is changed to desert i.e. bare soil. The comparison between desert and present vegetation worlds reveals that the prevailing signal in terms of surface energy budget is dominated by the reduction of upward latent heat transfer. Replacing the vegetation by bare soil has similar impacts on surface air temperature South of 20 N in all three climatic contexts, with a warming over tropical forests and a slight cooling over semi-arid and arid areas, and these temperature changes are of the same order of magnitude. North of 20 N, the difference between the temperatures simulated with present day vegetation and in a desert world is mainly due to the change in net radiation related to the modulation of the snow albedo by vegetation, which is obviously absent in the desert world simulations. The enhanced albedo in the desert world simulations induces a large temperature decrease, especially during summer in the cold and modern climatic contexts, whereas the largest difference occurs during winter in the warm climate. This temperature difference requires a larger heat transport to the northern high latitudes. Part of this heat transport increase is achieved through an intensification of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This intensification reduces the sea-ice extent and causes a warming over the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans in the warm climate context. In contrast, the large cooling North of 20 N in both the modern

Increasing potential of biomass burning over Sumatra, Indonesia induced by anthropogenic tropical warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lestari, R Kartika; Watanabe, Masahiro; Kimoto, Masahide; Imada, Yukiko; Shiogama, Hideo; Field, Robert D; Takemura, Toshihiko

2014-01-01

Uncontrolled biomass burning in Indonesia during drought periods damages the landscape, degrades regional air quality, and acts as a disproportionately large source of greenhouse gas emissions. The expansion of forest fires is mostly observed in October in Sumatra favored by persistent droughts during the dry season from June to November. The contribution of anthropogenic warming to the probability of severe droughts is not yet clear. Here, we show evidence that past events in Sumatra were exacerbated by anthropogenic warming and that they will become more frequent under a future emissions scenario. By conducting two sets of atmospheric general circulation model ensemble experiments driven by observed sea surface temperature for 1960–2011, one with and one without an anthropogenic warming component, we found that a recent weakening of the Walker circulation associated with tropical ocean warming increased the probability of severe droughts in Sumatra, despite increasing tropical-mean precipitation. A future increase in the frequency of droughts is then suggested from our analyses of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model ensembles. Increasing precipitation to the north of the equator accompanies drier conditions over Indonesia, amplified by enhanced ocean surface warming in the central equatorial Pacific. The resultant precipitation decrease leads to a ∼25% increase in severe drought events from 1951–2000 to 2001–2050. Our results therefore indicate the global warming impact to a potential of wide-spreading forest fires over Indonesia, which requires mitigation policy for disaster prevention. (letter)

Acute Warm-up Effects in Submaximal Athletes: An EMG Study of Skilled Violinists.

Science.gov (United States)

McCrary, J Matt; Halaki, Mark; Sorkin, Evgeny; Ackermann, Bronwen J

2016-02-01

Warm-up is commonly recommended for injury prevention and performance enhancement across all activities, yet this recommendation is not supported by evidence for repetitive submaximal activities such as instrumental music performance. The objective of this study is to quantify the effects of cardiovascular, core muscle, and musical warm-ups on muscle activity levels, musical performance, and subjective experience in skilled violinists. Fifty-five undergraduate, postgraduate, or professional violinists performed five randomly ordered 45-s musical excerpts of varying physical demands both before and after a randomly assigned 15-min, moderate-intensity cardiovascular, core muscle, musical (technical violin exercises), or inactive control warm-up protocol. Surface EMG data were obtained for 16 muscles of the trunk, shoulders, and right arm during each musical performance. Sound recording and perceived exertion (RPE) data were also obtained. Sound recordings were randomly ordered and rated for performance quality by blinded adjudicators. Questionnaire data regarding participant pain sites and fitness levels were used to stratify participants according to pain and fitness levels. Data were analyzed using two- and three-factor ANCOVA (surface EMG and sound recording) and Wilcoxon matched pairs tests (RPE). None of the three warm-up protocols had significant effects on muscle activity levels (P ≥ 0.10). Performance quality did not significantly increase (P ≥ 0.21). RPE significantly decreased (P warm-up for each of the three experimental warm-ups; control condition RPE did not significantly decrease (P > 0.23). Acute physiological and musical benefits from cardiovascular, core muscle, and musical warm-ups in skilled violinists are limited to decreases in RPE. This investigation provides data from the performing arts in support of sports medical evidence suggesting that warm-up only effectively enhances maximal strength and power performance.

Population risk perceptions of global warming in Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Agho, Kingsley; Stevens, Garry; Taylor, Mel; Barr, Margo; Raphael, Beverley

2010-11-01

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), global warming has the potential to dramatically disrupt some of life's essential requirements for health, water, air and food. Understanding how Australians perceive the risk of global warming is essential for climate change policy and planning. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of, and socio-demographic factors associated with, high levels of perceived likelihood that global warming would worsen, concern for self and family and reported behaviour changes. A module of questions on global warming was incorporated into the New South Wales Population Health Survey in the second quarter of 2007. This Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) was completed by a representative sample of 2004 adults. The weighted sample was comparable to the Australian population. Bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were conducted to examine the socio-demographic and general health factors. Overall 62.1% perceived that global warming was likely to worsen; 56.3% were very or extremely concerned that they or their family would be directly affected by global warming; and 77.6% stated that they had made some level of change to the way they lived their lives, because of the possibility of global warming. After controlling for confounding factors, multivariate analyses revealed that those with high levels of psychological distress were 2.17 (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR)=2.17; CI: 1.16-4.03; P=0.015) times more likely to be concerned about global warming than those with low psychological distress levels. Those with a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in urban areas were significantly more likely to think that global warming would worsen compared to those without a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in the rural areas. Females were significantly (AOR=1.69; CI: 1.23-2.33; P=0.001) more likely to report they had made changes to the way they lived their lives due to the risk of

Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.

2017-01-01

Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies.

Warm mid-Cretaceous high-latitude sea-surface temperatures from the southern Tethys Ocean and cool high-latitude sea-surface temperatures from the Arctic Ocean: asymmetric worldwide distribution of dinoflagellates

Science.gov (United States)

Masure, Edwige; Desmares, Delphine; Vrielynck, Bruno

2014-05-01

Dealing with 87 articles and using a Geographical Information System, Masure and Vrielynck (2009) have mapped worldwide biogeography of 38 Late Albian dinoflagellate cysts and have demonstrated Cretaceous oceanic bioclimatic belts. For comparison 30 Aptian species derived from 49 studies (Masure et al., 2013) and 49 Cenomanian species recorded from 33 articles have been encountered. Tropical, Subtropical, Boreal, Austral, bipolar and cosmopolitan species have been identified and Cretaceous dinoflagellate biomes are introduced. Asymmetric distribution of Aptian and Late Albian/Cenomanian subtropical Tethyan species, from 40°N to 70°S, demonstrates asymmetric Aptian and Late Albian/Cenomanian Sea Surface Temperature (SST) gradients with warm water masses in high latitudes of Southern Ocean. The SST gradients were stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. We note that Aptian and Late Albian/Cenomanian dinoflagellates restricted to subtropical and subpolar latitudes met and mixed at 35-40°N, while they mixed from 30°S to 70°S and from 50°S to 70°S respectively in the Southern Hemisphere. Mixing belts extend on 5° in the Northern Hemisphere and along 40° (Aptian) and 20° (Late Albian/Cenomanian) in the Southern one. The board southern mixing belt of Tethyan and Austral dinoflagellates suggest co-occurrence of warm and cold currents. We record climatic changes such as the Early Aptian cooler period and Late Aptian and Albian warming through the poleward migration of species constrained to cool water masses. These species sensitive to temperature migrated from 35°N to 55°N through the shallow Greenland-Norwergian Seaway connecting the Central Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. While Tethyan species did not migrate staying at 40°N. We suggest that the Greenland-Norwergian Seaway might has been a barrier until Late Albian/Cenomanian for oceanic Tethyan dinoflagellates stopped either by the shallow water column or temperature and salinity

Plants, birds and butterflies: short-term responses of species communities to climate warming vary by taxon and with altitude.

Science.gov (United States)

Roth, Tobias; Plattner, Matthias; Amrhein, Valentin

2014-01-01

As a consequence of climate warming, species usually shift their distribution towards higher latitudes or altitudes. Yet, it is unclear how different taxonomic groups may respond to climate warming over larger altitudinal ranges. Here, we used data from the national biodiversity monitoring program of Switzerland, collected over an altitudinal range of 2500 m. Within the short period of eight years (2003-2010), we found significant shifts in communities of vascular plants, butterflies and birds. At low altitudes, communities of all species groups changed towards warm-dwelling species, corresponding to an average uphill shift of 8 m, 38 m and 42 m in plant, butterfly and bird communities, respectively. However, rates of community changes decreased with altitude in plants and butterflies, while bird communities changed towards warm-dwelling species at all altitudes. We found no decrease in community variation with respect to temperature niches of species, suggesting that climate warming has not led to more homogenous communities. The different community changes depending on altitude could not be explained by different changes of air temperatures, since during the 16 years between 1995 and 2010, summer temperatures in Switzerland rose by about 0.07°C per year at all altitudes. We discuss that land-use changes or increased disturbances may have prevented alpine plant and butterfly communities from changing towards warm-dwelling species. However, the findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that unlike birds, many alpine plant species in a warming climate could find suitable habitats within just a few metres, due to the highly varied surface of alpine landscapes. Our results may thus support the idea that for plants and butterflies and on a short temporal scale, alpine landscapes are safer places than lowlands in a warming world.

How warm was the year 2010? Background; Wie warm war das Jahr 2010? Hintergrund

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-05-06

In the background paper under consideration, the Federal Environment Agency (Dessau-Rosslau, Federal Republic of Germany) reports on a global measurement of the surface air temperature in order to obtain a global mean temperature. The global mean temperature of the year 2010 is not very significant. The deviation of the global mean temperature of the year 2010 from the mean temperature in a recent, extended period of time is more significant. The long-term trend in the global mean temperature shows a progressive global warming. The year 2010 was the warmest calendar year with the largest amount of rainfall since the records began in the 19th century. The global mean surface air temperature was very slight above the average temperature of the previous record year 2005.

Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahlstein, I; Knutti, R; Solomon, S; Portmann, R W

2011-01-01

The Earth is warming on average, and most of the global warming of the past half-century can very likely be attributed to human influence. But the climate in particular locations is much more variable, raising the question of where and when local changes could become perceptible enough to be obvious to people in the form of local warming that exceeds interannual variability; indeed only a few studies have addressed the significance of local signals relative to variability. It is well known that the largest total warming is expected to occur in high latitudes, but high latitudes are also subject to the largest variability, delaying the emergence of significant changes there. Here we show that due to the small temperature variability from one year to another, the earliest emergence of significant warming occurs in the summer season in low latitude countries (∼25 deg. S-25 deg. N). We also show that a local warming signal that exceeds past variability is emerging at present, or will likely emerge in the next two decades, in many tropical countries. Further, for most countries worldwide, a mean global warming of 1 deg. C is sufficient for a significant temperature change, which is less than the total warming projected for any economically plausible emission scenario. The most strongly affected countries emit small amounts of CO 2 per capita and have therefore contributed little to the changes in climate that they are beginning to experience.

SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods.

Science.gov (United States)

Dutton, A; Carlson, A E; Long, A J; Milne, G A; Clark, P U; DeConto, R; Horton, B P; Rahmstorf, S; Raymo, M E

2015-07-10

Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO and global warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Nyenzi

2006-01-01

Full Text Available It is widely accepted by the international scientific community that human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG and aerosols since the pre-industrial era. This increase has contributed to most of the warming (0.6±0.2°C observed over the 20th century, land areas warming more than the oceans, with the 1990s very likely to be the warmest decade of the 20th century (IPCC, 2001. How this warming influences the occurrence, severity and frequency of ENSO episodes remains highly uncertain. The IPCC (2001 assessment of the scientific literature found insufficient evidence to suggest any direct attribution between increase in ENSO events that occurred in the last 20 to 30 years of the 20th century and global warming (IPCC, 2001. However, assessments carried out since then (e.g. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, in preparations suggest El Niño events have become more frequent, persistent and intense during the last 20 to 30 years compared to the previous 100 years. Attribution to global warming, however, remains highly uncertain. Efforts to simulate and model past, present and future behaviour of ENSO under a warming world due to enhanced GHG concentrations produce conflicting results. Since substantial internally-generated variability of ENSO behaviour on multi-decadal to century timescales occurs in long, unforced atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model (AOGCM simulations, the attribution of past and future changes in ENSO amplitude and frequency to external forcing like GHG concentrations cannot be made with certainty. Such attribution would require extensive use of ensemble climate experiments or long experiments with stabilised GHG forcing. Although there are now better ENSO simulations in AOGCM, further model improvements are needed to simulate a more realistic Pacific climatology and seasonal cycle of the key modes influencing the climate of the region, as well as more realistic ENSO variability

Seasonality of change: Summer warming rates do not fully represent effects of climate change on lake temperatures

Science.gov (United States)

Winslow, Luke; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Rose, Kevin C.; Robertson, Dale M.

2017-01-01

Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity in air temperature trends. Monthly surface-water temperature warming rates varied across the open-water season, ranging from 0.013 in August to 0.073°C yr−1 in September (standard deviation [SD]: 0.025°C yr−1). Deep-water trends during summer varied less among months (SD: 0.006°C yr−1), but varied broadly among lakes (–0.056°C yr−1 to 0.035°C yr−1, SD: 0.034°C yr−1). Trends in monthly surface-water temperatures were well correlated with air temperature trends, suggesting monthly air temperature trends, for which data exist at broad scales, may be a proxy for seasonal patterns in surface-water temperature trends during the open water season in lakes similar to those studied here. Seasonally variable warming has broad implications for how ecological processes respond to climate change, because phenological events such as fish spawning and phytoplankton succession respond to specific, seasonal temperature cues.

Modeling the Warming Impact of Urban Land Expansion on Hot Weather Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: A Case Study of Beijing, China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xiaojuan; Tian, Guangjin; Feng, Jinming; Ma, Bingran; Wang, Jun; Kong, Lingqiang

2018-06-01

The impacts of three periods of urban land expansion during 1990-2010 on near-surface air temperature in summer in Beijing were simulated in this study, and then the interrelation between heat waves and urban warming was assessed. We ran the sensitivity tests using the mesoscaleWeather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a single urban canopy model, as well as high-resolution land cover data. The warming area expanded approximately at the same scale as the urban land expansion. The average regional warming induced by urban expansion increased but the warming speed declined slightly during 2000-2010. The smallest warming occurred at noon and then increased gradually in the afternoon before peaking at around 2000 LST—the time of sunset. In the daytime, urban warming was primarily caused by the decrease in latent heat flux at the urban surface. Urbanization led to more ground heat flux during the day and then more release at night, which resulted in nocturnal warming. Urban warming at night was higher than that in the day, although the nighttime increment in sensible heat flux was smaller. This was because the shallower planetary boundary layer at night reduced the release efficiency of near-surface heat. The simulated results also suggested that heat waves or high temperature weather enhanced urban warming intensity at night. Heat waves caused more heat to be stored in the surface during the day, greater heat released at night, and thus higher nighttime warming. Our results demonstrate a positive feedback effect between urban warming and heat waves in urban areas.

Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

2011-04-01

Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

Mean surface fields of heat budget components over the warm pool in the Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Sadhuram, Y.; Rao, D.P.; Rao, B.P.

Andaman Islands and in the MT area there is an association between SST and Q n . But, off Sri Lanka warmer waters were noticed eventhough Q n was negative. This gives a clue that the role of advection plays a dominant role in the maintenance of SST.... Maintenance of warmwaters could be due to the transport of heat from North to South during post-monsoon season. Individual contributions from advection and air-sea fluxes towards SST would throw better light on the formation of warm pool in Bay of Bengal...

Response of the global climate to changes in atmospheric chemical composition due to fossil fuel burning

Science.gov (United States)

Hameed, S.; Cess, R. D.; Hogan, J. S.

1980-01-01

Recent modeling of atmospheric chemical processes (Logan et al, 1978; Hameed et al, 1979) suggests that tropospheric ozone and methane might significantly increase in the future as the result of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO(x), and CH4 due to fossil fuel burning. Since O3 and CH4 are both greenhouse gases, increases in their concentrations could augment global warming due to larger future amounts of atmospheric CO2. To test the possible climatic impact of changes in tropospheric chemical composition, a zonal energy-balance climate model has been combined with a vertically averaged tropospheric chemical model. The latter model includes all relevant chemical reactions which affect species derived from H2O, O2, CH4, and NO(x). The climate model correspondingly incorporates changes in the infrared heating of the surface-troposphere system resulting from chemically induced changes in tropospheric ozone and methane. This coupled climate-chemical model indicates that global climate is sensitive to changes in emissions of CO, NO(x) and CH4, and that future increases in these emissions could augment global warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2.

Human-caused Indo-Pacific warm pool expansion.

Science.gov (United States)

Weller, Evan; Min, Seung-Ki; Cai, Wenju; Zwiers, Francis W; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Lee, Donghyun

2016-07-01

The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) has warmed and grown substantially during the past century. The IPWP is Earth's largest region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), has the highest rainfall, and is fundamental to global atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle. The region has also experienced the world's highest rates of sea-level rise in recent decades, indicating large increases in ocean heat content and leading to substantial impacts on small island states in the region. Previous studies have considered mechanisms for the basin-scale ocean warming, but not the causes of the observed IPWP expansion, where expansion in the Indian Ocean has far exceeded that in the Pacific Ocean. We identify human and natural contributions to the observed IPWP changes since the 1950s by comparing observations with climate model simulations using an optimal fingerprinting technique. Greenhouse gas forcing is found to be the dominant cause of the observed increases in IPWP intensity and size, whereas natural fluctuations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have played a smaller yet significant role. Further, we show that the shape and impact of human-induced IPWP growth could be asymmetric between the Indian and Pacific basins, the causes of which remain uncertain. Human-induced changes in the IPWP have important implications for understanding and projecting related changes in monsoonal rainfall, and frequency or intensity of tropical storms, which have profound socioeconomic consequences.

A New Wave of Permafrost Warming in the Alaskan Interior?

Science.gov (United States)

Romanovsky, V. E.; Nicolsky, D.; Cable, W.; Kholodov, A. L.; Panda, S. K.

2017-12-01

The impact of climate warming on permafrost and the potential of climate feedbacks resulting from permafrost thawing have recently received a great deal of attention. Ground temperatures are a primary indicator of permafrost stability. Many of the research sites in our permafrost network are located along the North American Arctic Permafrost-Ecological Transect that spans all permafrost zones in Alaska. Most of the sites in Alaska show substantial warming of permafrost since the 1980s. The magnitude of warming has varied with location, but was typically from 0.5 to 3°C. However, this warming was not linear in time and not spatially uniform. In some regions this warming even may be reversed and a slight recent cooling of permafrost has been observed recently at some locations. The Interior of Alaska is one of such regions where a slight permafrost cooling was observed starting in the late 1990s that has continued through the 2000s and in the beginning of the 2010s. The cooling has followed the substantial increase in permafrost temperatures documented for the Interior during the 1980s and 1990s. Permafrost temperatures at 15 m depth increased here by 0.3 to 0.6°C between 1983 and 1996. In most locations they reached their maximum in the second half of the 1990s. Since then, the permafrost temperatures started to decrease slowly and by 2013 this decrease at some locations was as much as 0.3°C at 15 m depth. There are some indications that the warming trend in the Alaskan Interior permafrost resumed during the last four years. By 2016, new record highs for the entire period of measurements of permafrost temperatures at 15 m depth were recorded at several locations. The latest observed permafrost warming in the Interior was combined with higher than normal summer precipitations. This combination has triggered near-surface permafrost degradation in many locations with adverse consequences for the ground surface stability affecting ecosystems and infrastructure. In

Ergodization of magnetic surfaces due to finite beta effect in a helical system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hayashi, Takaya.

1989-04-01

Breaking of magnetic surfaces due to finite beta effect in a l=2 heliotron/torsatron configuration is studied by using a newly developed three dimensional equilibrium code. Breaking can be suppressed by a larger aspect ratio configuration, shaping of magnetic surface (inward shift or prolate shape), pitch modulation of helical coils, or pressure profile control. (author)

The influence of global warming in Earth rotation speed

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Abarca del Rio

1999-06-01

Full Text Available The tendency of the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM is investigated using a 49-year set of monthly AAM data for the period January 1949-December 1997. This data set is constructed with zonal wind values from the reanalyses of NCEP/NCAR, used in conjunction with a variety of operationally produced AAM time series with different independent sources and lengths over 1976-1997. In all the analyzed AAM series the linear trend is found to be positive. Since the angular momentum of the atmosphere-earth system is conserved this corresponds to a net loss of angular momentum by the solid earth, therefore decreasing the Earth rotation speed and increasing the length of day (LOD. The AAM rise is significant to the budget of angular momentum of the global atmosphere-earth system; its value in milliseconds/century (ms/cy is +0.56 ms/cy, corresponding to one-third of the estimated increase in LOD (+1.7 ms/cy. The major contribution to this secular trend in AAM comes from the equatorial Tropopause. This is consistent with results from a previous study using a simplified aqua-planet model to investigate the AAM variations due to near equatorial warming conditions. During the same time interval, 1949-1997, the global marine + land-surface temperature increases by about 0.79 °C/cy, showing a linear correspondence between surface temperature increase and global AAM of about 0.07 ms per 0.1 °C. These results imply that atmospheric angular momentum may be used as an independent index of the global atmosphere's dynamical response to the greenhouse forcing, and as such, the length of day may be used as an indirect indicator of global warming.Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (general circulation · Geodesy

The influence of global warming in Earth rotation speed

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Abarca del Rio

Full Text Available The tendency of the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM is investigated using a 49-year set of monthly AAM data for the period January 1949-December 1997. This data set is constructed with zonal wind values from the reanalyses of NCEP/NCAR, used in conjunction with a variety of operationally produced AAM time series with different independent sources and lengths over 1976-1997. In all the analyzed AAM series the linear trend is found to be positive. Since the angular momentum of the atmosphere-earth system is conserved this corresponds to a net loss of angular momentum by the solid earth, therefore decreasing the Earth rotation speed and increasing the length of day (LOD. The AAM rise is significant to the budget of angular momentum of the global atmosphere-earth system; its value in milliseconds/century (ms/cy is +0.56 ms/cy, corresponding to one-third of the estimated increase in LOD (+1.7 ms/cy. The major contribution to this secular trend in AAM comes from the equatorial Tropopause. This is consistent with results from a previous study using a simplified aqua-planet model to investigate the AAM variations due to near equatorial warming conditions. During the same time interval, 1949-1997, the global marine + land-surface temperature increases by about 0.79 °C/cy, showing a linear correspondence between surface temperature increase and global AAM of about 0.07 ms per 0.1 °C. These results imply that atmospheric angular momentum may be used as an independent index of the global atmosphere's dynamical response to the greenhouse forcing, and as such, the length of day may be used as an indirect indicator of global warming.

Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (general circulation · Geodesy

Implications of Warm Rain in Shallow Cumulus and Congestus Clouds for Large-Scale Circulations

Science.gov (United States)

Nuijens, Louise; Emanuel, Kerry; Masunaga, Hirohiko; L'Ecuyer, Tristan

2017-11-01

Space-borne observations reveal that 20-40% of marine convective clouds below the freezing level produce rain. In this paper we speculate what the prevalence of warm rain might imply for convection and large-scale circulations over tropical oceans. We present results using a two-column radiative-convective model of hydrostatic, nonlinear flow on a non-rotating sphere, with parameterized convection and radiation, and review ongoing efforts in high-resolution modeling and observations of warm rain. The model experiments investigate the response of convection and circulation to sea surface temperature (SST) gradients between the columns and to changes in a parameter that controls the conversion of cloud condensate to rain. Convection over the cold ocean collapses to a shallow mode with tops near 850 hPa, but a congestus mode with tops near 600 hPa can develop at small SST differences when warm rain formation is more efficient. Here, interactive radiation and the response of the circulation are crucial: along with congestus a deeper moist layer develops, which leads to less low-level radiative cooling, a smaller buoyancy gradient between the columns, and therefore a weaker circulation and less subsidence over the cold ocean. The congestus mode is accompanied with more surface precipitation in the subsiding column and less surface precipitation in the deep convecting column. For the shallow mode over colder oceans, circulations also weaken with more efficient warm rain formation, but only marginally. Here, more warm rain reduces convective tops and the boundary layer depth—similar to Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) studies—which reduces the integrated buoyancy gradient. Elucidating the impact of warm rain can benefit from large-domain high-resolution simulations and observations. Parameterizations of warm rain may be constrained through collocated cloud and rain profiling from ground, and concurrent changes in convection and rain in subsiding and convecting branches of

Periodic fluctuations in deep water formation due to sea ice

Science.gov (United States)

Saha, R.

2012-12-01

During the last ice age, several abrupt warming events took place, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events. Their effects were felt globally, although the North Atlantic experienced the largest temperature increase. The leading hypothesis to explain their occurrence postulates that the warming was caused by abrupt disruptions of the North Atlantic Current due to meltwater discharge from destabilized ice sheets (Heinrich events). However, the number of warming events outnumber the those of ice-sheet collapse. Thus, the majority of D-O events are not attributed to surface freshwater anomalies, and the underlying mechanism behind their occurrence remain unexplained. Using a simple dynamical model of sea ice and an overturning circulation, I show the existence of self-sustained relaxation oscillations in the overturning circulation. The insulating effect of sea ice is shown to paradoxically lead to a net loss of heat from the top layer of the polar ocean when sea ice retreats. Repeated heat loss results in a denser top layer and a destabilized water column, which triggers convection. The convective state pulls the system out of its preferred mode of circulation, setting up relaxation oscillations. The period of oscillations in this case is linked to the geometry of the ocean basin, if solar forcing is assumed to remain constant. If appropriate glacial freshwater forcing is applied to the model, a pattern of oscillation is produced that bears remarkable similarity to the observed fluctuations in North Atlantic climate between 50,000 and 30,000 years before present.; Comparison of NGRIP δ 18-O (proxy for near surface air temperature) between 50,000 and 30,000 years before present, showing Bond cycles (left) with the model output when forced with appropriate glacial freshwater forcing (right).

Response of the North Atlantic surface and intermediate ocean structure to climate warming of MIS 11.

Science.gov (United States)

Kandiano, Evgenia S; van der Meer, Marcel T J; Schouten, Stefan; Fahl, Kirsten; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S; Bauch, Henning A

2017-04-10

Investigating past interglacial climates not only help to understand how the climate system operates in general, it also forms a vital basis for climate predictions. We reconstructed vertical stratification changes in temperature and salinity in the North Atlantic for a period some 400 ka ago (MIS11), an interglacial time analogue of a future climate. As inferred from a unique set of biogeochemical, geochemical, and faunal data, the internal upper ocean stratification across MIS 11 shows distinct depth-dependent dynamical changes related to vertical as well as lateral shifts in the upper Atlantic meridional circulation system. Importantly, transient cold events are recognized near the end of the long phase of postglacial warming at surface, subsurface, mid, and deeper water layers. These data demonstrate that MIS 11 coolings over the North Atlantic were initially triggered by freshwater input at the surface and expansion of cold polar waters into the Subpolar Gyre. The cooling signal was then transmitted downwards into mid-water depths. Since the cold events occurred after the main deglacial phase we suggest that their cause might be related to continuous melting of the Greenland ice sheet, a mechanism that might also be relevant for the present and upcoming climate.

Physical mechanisms of spring and summertime drought related with the global warming over the northern America

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, W.; Kim, K. Y.

2017-12-01

Drought during the growing season (spring through summer) is severe natural hazard in the large cropland over the northern America. It is important to understand how the drought is related with the global warming and how it will change in the future. This study aims to investigate the physical mechanism of global warming impact on the spring and summertime drought over the northern America using Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function (CSEOF) analysis. The Northern Hemisphere surface warming, the most dominant mode of the surface air temperature, has resulted in decreased relative humidity and precipitation over the mid-latitude region of North America. For the viewpoint of atmospheric water demand, soil moisture and evaporation have also decreased significantly, exacerbating vulnerability of drought. These consistent features of changes in water demand and supply related with the global warming can provide a possibility of credible insight for future drought change.

A century of ocean warming on Florida Keys coral reefs: historic in situ observations

Science.gov (United States)

Kuffner, Ilsa B.; Lidz, Barbara H.; Hudson, J. Harold; Anderson, Jeffery S.

2015-01-01

There is strong evidence that global climate change over the last several decades has caused shifts in species distributions, species extinctions, and alterations in the functioning of ecosystems. However, because of high variability on short (i.e., diurnal, seasonal, and annual) timescales as well as the recency of a comprehensive instrumental record, it is difficult to detect or provide evidence for long-term, site-specific trends in ocean temperature. Here we analyze five in situ datasets from Florida Keys coral reef habitats, including historic measurements taken by lighthouse keepers, to provide three independent lines of evidence supporting approximately 0.8 °C of warming in sea surface temperature (SST) over the last century. Results indicate that the warming observed in the records between 1878 and 2012 can be fully accounted for by the warming observed in recent decades (from 1975 to 2007), documented using in situ thermographs on a mid-shore patch reef. The magnitude of warming revealed here is similar to that found in other SST datasets from the region and to that observed in global mean surface temperature. The geologic context and significance of recent ocean warming to coral growth and population dynamics are discussed, as is the future prognosis for the Florida reef tract.

Offsetting global warming-induced elevated greenhouse gas emissions from an arable soil by biochar application.

Science.gov (United States)

Bamminger, Chris; Poll, Christian; Marhan, Sven

2018-01-01

Global warming will likely enhance greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soils. Due to its slow decomposability, biochar is widely recognized as effective in long-term soil carbon (C) sequestration and in mitigation of soil GHG emissions. In a long-term soil warming experiment (+2.5 °C, since July 2008) we studied the effect of applying high-temperature Miscanthus biochar (0, 30 t/ha, since August 2013) on GHG emissions and their global warming potential (GWP) during 2 years in a temperate agroecosystem. Crop growth, physical and chemical soil properties, temperature sensitivity of soil respiration (R s ), and metabolic quotient (qCO 2 ) were investigated to yield further information about single effects of soil warming and biochar as well as on their interactions. Soil warming increased total CO 2 emissions by 28% over 2 years. The effect of warming on soil respiration did not level off as has often been observed in less intensively managed ecosystems. However, the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration was not affected by warming. Overall, biochar had no effect on most of the measured parameters, suggesting its high degradation stability and its low influence on microbial C cycling even under elevated soil temperatures. In contrast, biochar × warming interactions led to higher total N 2 O emissions, possibly due to accelerated N-cycling at elevated soil temperature and to biochar-induced changes in soil properties and environmental conditions. Methane uptake was not affected by soil warming or biochar. The incorporation of biochar-C into soil was estimated to offset warming-induced elevated GHG emissions for 25 years. Our results highlight the suitability of biochar for C sequestration in cultivated temperate agricultural soil under a future elevated temperature. However, the increased N 2 O emissions under warming limit the GHG mitigation potential of biochar. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Controlled soil warming powered by alternative energy for remote field sites.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnstone, Jill F; Henkelman, Jonathan; Allen, Kirsten; Helgason, Warren; Bedard-Haughn, Angela

2013-01-01

Experiments using controlled manipulation of climate variables in the field are critical for developing and testing mechanistic models of ecosystem responses to climate change. Despite rapid changes in climate observed in many high latitude and high altitude environments, controlled manipulations in these remote regions have largely been limited to passive experimental methods with variable effects on environmental factors. In this study, we tested a method of controlled soil warming suitable for remote field locations that can be powered using alternative energy sources. The design was tested in high latitude, alpine tundra of southern Yukon Territory, Canada, in 2010 and 2011. Electrical warming probes were inserted vertically in the near-surface soil and powered with photovoltaics attached to a monitoring and control system. The warming manipulation achieved a stable target warming of 1.3 to 2 °C in 1 m(2) plots while minimizing disturbance to soil and vegetation. Active control of power output in the warming plots allowed the treatment to closely match spatial and temporal variations in soil temperature while optimizing system performance during periods of low power supply. Active soil heating with vertical electric probes powered by alternative energy is a viable option for remote sites and presents a low-disturbance option for soil warming experiments. This active heating design provides a valuable tool for examining the impacts of soil warming on ecosystem processes.

Controlled soil warming powered by alternative energy for remote field sites.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jill F Johnstone

Full Text Available Experiments using controlled manipulation of climate variables in the field are critical for developing and testing mechanistic models of ecosystem responses to climate change. Despite rapid changes in climate observed in many high latitude and high altitude environments, controlled manipulations in these remote regions have largely been limited to passive experimental methods with variable effects on environmental factors. In this study, we tested a method of controlled soil warming suitable for remote field locations that can be powered using alternative energy sources. The design was tested in high latitude, alpine tundra of southern Yukon Territory, Canada, in 2010 and 2011. Electrical warming probes were inserted vertically in the near-surface soil and powered with photovoltaics attached to a monitoring and control system. The warming manipulation achieved a stable target warming of 1.3 to 2 °C in 1 m(2 plots while minimizing disturbance to soil and vegetation. Active control of power output in the warming plots allowed the treatment to closely match spatial and temporal variations in soil temperature while optimizing system performance during periods of low power supply. Active soil heating with vertical electric probes powered by alternative energy is a viable option for remote sites and presents a low-disturbance option for soil warming experiments. This active heating design provides a valuable tool for examining the impacts of soil warming on ecosystem processes.

Global warming: it's not only size that matters

Science.gov (United States)

Hegerl, Gabriele C.

2011-09-01

impacts than temperatures that have occurred frequently due to internal climate variability. Determining when exactly temperatures enter unusual ranges may be done in many different ways (and the paper shows several, and more could be imagined), but the main result of first local emergence in low latitudes remains robust. A worrying factor is that the regions where the signal is expected to emerge first, or is already emerging are largely regions in Africa, parts of South and Central America, and the Maritime Continent; regions that are vulnerable to climate change for a variety of regions (see IPCC 2007), and regions which contribute generally little to global greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, strong emissions of greenhouse gases occur in regions of low warming-to-variability ratio. To get even closer to the relevance of this finding for impacts, it would be interesting to place the emergence of highly unusual summer temperatures in the context not of internal variability, but in the context of variability experienced by the climate system prior to the 20th century, as, e.g. documented in palaeoclimatic reconstructions and simulated in simulations of the last millennium (see Jansen et al 2007). External forcing has moved the temperature range around more strongly for some regions and in some seasons than others. For example, while reconstructions of summer temperatures in Europe appear to show small long-term variations, winter shows deep drops in temperature in the little Ice Age and a long-term increase since then (Luterbacher et al 2004), which was at least partly caused by external forcing (Hegerl et al 2011a) and therefore 'natural variability' may be different from internal variability. A further interesting question in attempts to provide a climate-based proxy for impacts of climate change is: to what extent does the rapidity of change matter, and how does it compare to trends due to natural variability? It is reasonable to assume that fast changes impact

Electrolytically generated hydrogen warm water cleanses the keratin-plug-clogged hair-pores and promotes the capillary blood-streams, more markedly than normal warm water does

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yoshiharu Tanaka

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Biomedical properties of hydrogen water have been extensively investigated, but the effect of hydrogen on good healthy subjects remains unclear. This study was designed to explore the hygiene improvement by electrolytically generated hydrogen warm water (40°C on capillary blood streams, skin moisture, and keratin plugs in skin pores in normal good healthy subjects with their informed consents. Fingertip-capillary blood stream was estimated after hand-immersing in hydrogen warm water by videography using a CCD-based microscope, and the blood flow levels increased to about 120% versus normal warm water, after 60 minutes of the hand-immersing termination. Skin moisture of subjects was assessed using an electro-conductivity-based skin moisture meter. Immediately after taking a bath filled with hydrogen warm water, the skin moisture increased by 5–10% as compared to before bathing, which was kept on for the 7-day test, but indistinct, because of lower solubility of hydrogen in “warm” water than in room-temperature water. Cleansing of keratin plugs in skin-pores was assessed by stereoscopic microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. After hydrogen warm water bathing, the numbers of cleansed keratin plugs also increased on cheek of subjects 2.30- to 4.47-fold as many as the control for normal warm water. And areas of cleansed keratin plugs in the cheeks increased about 1.3-fold as much as the control. More marked improvements were observed on cheeks than on nostrils. Hydrogen warm water may thoroughly cleanse even keratin-plugs of residual amounts that could not be cleansed by normal warm water, through its permeability into wide-ranged portions of hair-pores, and promote the fingertip blood streams more markedly than merely through warmness due to normal warm water.

Cosmic rays and global warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Erlykin, A.D. [P.N. Lebedev Physical Institute, Moscow (Russian Federation); Sloan, T. [Lancaster University (United Kingdom); Wolfendale, A.W. [Durham University (United Kingdom)

2010-07-01

The possible effects of cosmic rays on clouds could contribute to global warming. The argument is that the observed increased solar activity during the last century caused a decrease in the ionization due to cosmic rays since the lower energy cosmic particles are deflected by the magnetic field created by the increasing solar wind. This would lead to a decrease in cloud cover allowing more heating of the earth by the sun. Meteorological data combined to solar activity observations and simulations show that any effect of solar activity on clouds and the climate is likely to be through irradiance rather than cosmic rays. Since solar irradiance transfers 8 orders of magnitude more energy to the atmosphere than cosmic rays it is more plausible that this can produce a real effect. The total contribution of variable solar activity to global warming is shown to be less than 14% of the total temperature rise. (A.C.)

The reef-building coral Siderastrea siderea exhibits parabolic responses to ocean acidification and warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Castillo, Karl D; Ries, Justin B; Bruno, John F; Westfield, Isaac T

2014-12-22

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric CO2 over this century are predicted to cause global average surface ocean pH to decline by 0.1-0.3 pH units and sea surface temperature to increase by 1-4°C. We conducted controlled laboratory experiments to investigate the impacts of CO2-induced ocean acidification (pCO2 = 324, 477, 604, 2553 µatm) and warming (25, 28, 32°C) on the calcification rate of the zooxanthellate scleractinian coral Siderastrea siderea, a widespread, abundant and keystone reef-builder in the Caribbean Sea. We show that both acidification and warming cause a parabolic response in the calcification rate within this coral species. Moderate increases in pCO2 and warming, relative to near-present-day values, enhanced coral calcification, with calcification rates declining under the highest pCO2 and thermal conditions. Equivalent responses to acidification and warming were exhibited by colonies across reef zones and the parabolic nature of the corals' response to these stressors was evident across all three of the experiment's 30-day observational intervals. Furthermore, the warming projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the end of the twenty-first century caused a fivefold decrease in the rate of coral calcification, while the acidification projected for the same interval had no statistically significant impact on the calcification rate-suggesting that ocean warming poses a more immediate threat than acidification for this important coral species.

The role stratification on Indian ocean mixing under global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Praveen, V.; Valsala, V.; Ravindran, A. M.

2017-12-01

The impact of changes in Indian ocean stratification on mixing under global warming is examined. Previous studies on global warming and associated weakening of winds reported to increase the stratification of the world ocean leading to a reduction in mixing, increased acidity, reduced oxygen and there by a reduction in productivity. However this processes is not uniform and are also modulated by changes in wind pattern of the future. Our study evaluate the role of stratification and surface fluxes on mixing focusing northern Indian ocean. A dynamical downscaling study using Regional ocean Modelling system (ROMS) forced with stratification and surface fluxes from selected CMIP5 models are presented. Results from an extensive set of historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (rcp8.5) scenario simulations are used to quantify the distinctive role of stratification on mixing.

Global warming and drainage development: perspective and challenges

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wrachien, De D.; Feddes, R.A.

2004-01-01

The report gives an overview of current and future (time horizon 2025) drainage developments around the world. Moreover, the paper analyses the results of four of the most advanced global circulation models for assessing the hydrological impact of global warming, due to the greenhouse effect, on the

Heat and mass transfer during the warming of a bottle of beer - doi: 10.4025/actascitechnol.v32i2.8273

OpenAIRE

Monteiro, Cláudio Vinicius Barbosa; UEM; Righetto, Aderson Roberto; Universidade Estadual de Maringá; Souza, Leonardo César de; Universidade Estadual de Maringá; Paraíso, Paulo Roberto; UEM; Jorge, Luiz Mario de Matos; UEM

2010-01-01

The warming of a bottle of beer during a Friday evening happy hour directly involves transport phenomena, such as mass transfer due to condensation of air humidity on the bottle surface and heat transfer from the ambient to the bottle, which occurs by free convection and water condensation. Both processes happen simultaneously and are directly associated with the heat and mass transfer coefficients involved, which are affected by the ambient humidity and temperature. Several runs were made in...

Surface potential at a ferroelectric grain due to asymmetric screening of depolarization fields

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Genenko, Yuri A., E-mail: genenko@mm.tu-darmstadt.de; Hirsch, Ofer [Technische Universität Darmstadt, Darmstadt (Germany); Erhart, Paul [Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg (Sweden)

2014-03-14

Nonlinear screening of electric depolarization fields, generated by a stripe domain structure in a ferroelectric grain of a polycrystalline material, is studied within a semiconductor model of ferroelectrics. It is shown that the maximum strength of local depolarization fields is rather determined by the electronic band gap than by the spontaneous polarization magnitude. Furthermore, field screening due to electronic band bending and due to presence of intrinsic defects leads to asymmetric space charge regions near the grain boundary, which produce an effective dipole layer at the surface of the grain. This results in the formation of a potential difference between the grain surface and its interior of the order of 1 V, which can be of either sign depending on defect transition levels and concentrations. Exemplary acceptor doping of BaTiO{sub 3} is shown to allow tuning of the said surface potential in the region between 0.1 and 1.3 V.

An Investigation of the Ionospheric Disturbances Due to the 2014 Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events Over Brazilian Sector

Science.gov (United States)

de Jesus, R.; Batista, I. S.; Jonah, O. F.; de Abreu, A. J.; Fagundes, P. R.; Venkatesh, K.; Denardini, C. M.

2017-11-01

The present study investigates the ionospheric F region response in the Brazilian sector due to sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events of 2014. The data used for this work are obtained from GPS receivers and magnetometer measurements during day of year (DOY) 01 to 120, 2014 at different stations in the equatorial and low-latitude regions in the Brazilian sector. In addition, the data obtained from Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System satellites during DOY 01 to 75 of 2014 are used. The main novelty of this research is that, during the 2014 SSW events, daytime vertical total electron content (VTEC) shows a strong increase on the order of about 23% and 11% over the equatorial and low-latitude regions, respectively. We also observed that the nighttime VTEC (SSW days) is increased by 8% and 33% over equatorial and low-latitude regions, respectively. The magnetometer measurements show a strong counterelectrojet during the SSW days. The results show an amplification of the 0.5 day and 2-16 day periods in the VTEC and equatorial electrojet during the SSWs. The occurrences of ionospheric irregularities during the SSW events are around 84% and 53% in the equatorial and low-latitude regions, respectively, which is less frequent when compared with those during the pre-SSW periods.

Global warming-setting the stages

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

Most of us have heard or read about global warming. However, the messages we receive are often in conflict, raising more questions than answer. Is global warming a good or a bad thing? has it already started or is it part of our future? Are we, or are we not doing anything about it? Should we be concerned? This primer on Global Warming is designed to clear up some of this confusion by providing basic scientific information on global warming issue. It is clear that there is still much to learn about global warming. However, it is also clear that there is a lot that we already know - and that dose provide cause for concern. We must understand the global warming issue if we are to make wise decisions and take responsible actions in response to the challenges and opportunities posed by global warming. Chapter 1 of 'the primer on global Warming' set the stage with a brief overview of science of global warming within the context of climate change. In addition, it introduces the specific issues that surround the global warming problem. As far as the science of global warming is concerned the following questions are discussed. What is global climate? Is climate change natural? What causes climate to vary on a global scale? How does the composition of the atmosphere relate to climate change. but there are also certain issues discussed here which surround the global warming such as: If climate varies naturally, why is there a concern about 'global warming'? What are the potential consequences of 'global warning'. What human activities contribute to 'global warming'. (Author)

The Role of Vegetation in Mitigating Urban Land Surface Temperatures: A Case Study of Munich, Germany during the Warm Season

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sadroddin Alavipanah

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The Urban Heat Island (UHI is the phenomenon of altered increased temperatures in urban areas compared to their rural surroundings. UHIs grow and intensify under extreme hot periods, such as during heat waves, which can affect human health and also increase the demand for energy for cooling. This study applies remote sensing and land use/land cover (LULC data to assess the cooling effect of varying urban vegetation cover, especially during extreme warm periods, in the city of Munich, Germany. To compute the relationship between Land Surface Temperature (LST and Land Use Land Cover (LULC, MODIS eight-day interval LST data for the months of June, July and August from 2002 to 2012 and the Corine Land Cover (CLC database were used. Due to similarities in the behavior of surface temperature of different CLCs, some classes were reclassified and combined to form two major, rather simplified, homogenized classes: one of built-up area and one of urban vegetation. The homogenized map was merged with the MODIS eight-day interval LST data to compute the relationship between them. The results revealed that (i the cooling effect accrued from urban vegetation tended to be non-linear; and (ii a remarkable and stronger cooling effect in terms of LST was identified in regions where the proportion of vegetation cover was between seventy and almost eighty percent per square kilometer. The results also demonstrated that LST within urban vegetation was affected by the temperature of the surrounding built-up and that during the well-known European 2003 heat wave, suburb areas were cooler from the core of the urbanized region. This study concluded that the optimum green space for obtaining the lowest temperature is a non-linear trend. This could support urban planning strategies to facilitate appropriate applications to mitigate heat-stress in urban area.

Warming of subarctic tundra increases emissions of all three important greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.

Science.gov (United States)

Voigt, Carolina; Lamprecht, Richard E; Marushchak, Maija E; Lind, Saara E; Novakovskiy, Alexander; Aurela, Mika; Martikainen, Pertti J; Biasi, Christina

2017-08-01

Rapidly rising temperatures in the Arctic might cause a greater release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere. To study the effect of warming on GHG dynamics, we deployed open-top chambers in a subarctic tundra site in Northeast European Russia. We determined carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes as well as the concentration of those gases, inorganic nitrogen (N) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) along the soil profile. Studied tundra surfaces ranged from mineral to organic soils and from vegetated to unvegetated areas. As a result of air warming, the seasonal GHG budget of the vegetated tundra surfaces shifted from a GHG sink of -300 to -198 g CO 2 -eq m -2 to a source of 105 to 144 g CO 2 -eq m -2 . At bare peat surfaces, we observed increased release of all three GHGs. While the positive warming response was dominated by CO 2 , we provide here the first in situ evidence of increasing N 2 O emissions from tundra soils with warming. Warming promoted N 2 O release not only from bare peat, previously identified as a strong N 2 O source, but also from the abundant, vegetated peat surfaces that do not emit N 2 O under present climate. At these surfaces, elevated temperatures had an adverse effect on plant growth, resulting in lower plant N uptake and, consequently, better N availability for soil microbes. Although the warming was limited to the soil surface and did not alter thaw depth, it increased concentrations of DOC, CO 2, and CH 4 in the soil down to the permafrost table. This can be attributed to downward DOC leaching, fueling microbial activity at depth. Taken together, our results emphasize the tight linkages between plant and soil processes, and different soil layers, which need to be taken into account when predicting the climate change feedback of the Arctic. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Consequences of warm-up of a sector above 80K

CERN Document Server

Strubin, P

2009-01-01

There may be circumstances when a sector has to be partially or totally warmed-up to temperatures above 80 K, that is when thermal dilatation starts to play a role. Some equipment have been identify as presenting a risk, like the non-conform "plug-in" modules in the arcs. Because of motion induced by thermal dilatation, the electrical (ElQA) quality control may also have to be done again after cool-down. The main reason identified so far for partial warm-up is the required maintenance of the cooling towers and the cryogenics plants. There is also the request from the vacuum group to periodically warm-up the beam screen to temperatures in the 100 K region to release and pump-out the gas crysorbed on the surface of the beam screen. Observed and expected temperature conditions and statistics on failures of PIMs in sectors which have been warmed-up will be presented in this contribution. Methods to detect buckled PIMs will be described, as well as a recommended strategy for consolidation. Finally, the required el...

Quality factor due to roughness scattering of shear horizontal surface acoustic waves in nanoresonators

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Palasantzas, G.

2008-01-01

In this work we study the quality factor associated with dissipation due to scattering of shear horizontal surface acoustic waves by random self-affine roughness. It is shown that the quality factor is strongly influenced by both the surface roughness exponent H and the roughness amplitude w to

Formation of well-mixed warm water column in central Bohai Sea during summer: Role of high-frequency atmospheric forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Weiwei; Wan, Xiuquan; Wang, Zhankun; Liu, Yulong; Wan, Kai

2017-12-01

The influence of high-frequency atmospheric forcing on the formation of a well-mixed summer warm water column in the central Bohai Sea is investigated comparing model simulations driven by daily surface forcing and those using monthly forcing data. In the absence of high-frequency atmospheric forcing, numerical simulations have repeatedly failed to reproduce this vertically uniform column of warm water measured over the past 35 years. However, high-frequency surface forcing is found to strongly influence the structure and distribution of the well-mixed warm water column, and simulations are in good agreement with observations. Results show that high frequency forcing enhances vertical mixing over the central bank, intensifies downward heat transport, and homogenizes the water column to form the Bohai central warm column. Evidence presented shows that high frequency forcing plays a dominant role in the formation of the well-mixed warm water column in summer, even without the effects of tidal and surface wave mixing. The present study thus provides a practical and rational way of further improving the performance of oceanic simulations in the Bohai Sea and can be used to adjust parameterization schemes of ocean models.

Paleocene-Eocene warming and biotic response in the epicontinental West Siberian Sea

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Frieling, Joost|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/338017909; Iakovleva, Alina I.; Reichart, Gert Jan|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/165599081; Aleksandrova, Galina N.; Gnibidenko, Zinaida N.; Schouten, Stefan|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/137124929; Sluijs, Appy|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/311474748

2014-01-01

We present a Paleocene-Eocene (ca. 60-52 Ma) sea-surface temperature record from sediments deposited in the epicontinental West Siberian Sea. TEX86 paleothermometry indicates long-term late Paleocene (~17 °C ca. 59 Ma) to early Eocene (26 °C at 52 Ma) sea-surface warming, consistent with trends

Comparing different approaches to nonequilibrium thermodynamics in the context of warm inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramos, Rudnei O.; Vicente, Gustavo S.

2011-01-01

Full text: Cosmological inflationary models are usually described by the evolution of a background scalar field, the inflaton. These models can be separated in isentropic (cold) and non isentropic (warm) when regarding the production of radiation. In isentropic or cold inflation, inflaton's dynamics occurs with no interactions, driving the universe to a stage of supercooling. In non isentropic inflation, however, the inflaton is coupled to other fields, which cause its decay into radiation. The radiation produced then compensates the supercooling due to expansion. This work is focused in warm inflation. There is a dissipative term in both inflaton's and radiation fluid's equations, due to inflatons decay. Nevertheless, an additional effect arises due to inner couplings in the radiation fluid, which causes internal decays within it. Therefore, the radiation fluid behaves as a nonideal fluid and viscosity effects must be taken into account. We consider here, in particular, bulk viscosity. The presence of dissipative effects leads the radiation fluid out of equilibrium. Hence, an extended thermodynamics is necessary to handle with this departure from equilibrium. Most theories, like the widely used Israel-Stewart (IS) second order theory, works well only near equilibrium (due to the linearity in the thermodynamic flux). In warm inflation, however, we cannot assure that inflation will happen in near equilibrium regime. For this reason, we consider different thermodynamic approaches of nonequilibrium statistical physics that can properly account for beyond equilibrium systems and apply them in the context of warm inflation. The effect of bulk viscosity, as well as shear viscosity, in the context of density perturbation calculations are also briefly compared in these frameworks. (author)

Future vegetation ecosystem response to warming climate over the Tibetan Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Bao, Y.; Gao, Y.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

The amplified vegetation response to climate variability has been found over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent decades. In this study, the potential impacts of 21st century climate change on the vegetation ecosystem over the TP are assessed based on the dynamic vegetation outputs of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and the sensitivity of the TP vegetation in response to warming climate was investigated. Models project a continuous and accelerating greening in future, especially in the eastern TP, which closely associates with the plant type upgrade due to the pronouncing warming in growing season.Vegetation leaf area index (LAI) increase well follows the global warming, suggesting the warming climate instead of co2 fertilization controlls the future TP plant growth. The warming spring may advance the start of green-up day and extend the growing season length. More carbon accumulation in vegetation and soil will intensify the TP carbon cycle and will keep it as a carbon sink in future. Keywords: Leaf Area Index (LAI), Climate Change, Global Dynamic Vegetation Models (DGVMs), CMIP5, Tibetan Plateau (TP)

Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Mitchell, D. L.

2009-12-01

Since both greenhouse gases and cirrus clouds strongly affect outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) with no affect or less affect on solar radiation, respectively, an attempt to delay global warming to buy time for emission reduction strategies to work might naturally target cirrus clouds. Cirrus having optical depths competition effects, thus increasing OLR and surface cooling. Preliminary estimates of this global net cloud forcing via GCM simulations are more negative than -2.8 W m-2 and could neutralize the radiative forcing due to a CO2 doubling (3.7 W m-2). This cirrus engineered net forcing is due to (1) reduced cirrus coverage and (2) reduced upper tropospheric water vapor, due to enhanced ice sedimentation. The implementation of this climate engineering could use the airline industry to disperse the seeding material. Commercial airliners typically fly at temperatures between -40 and -60 deg. C (where homogeneous freezing nucleation dominates). Weather modification research has developed ice nucleating substances that are extremely effective at these cold temperatures, are non-toxic and are relatively inexpensive. The seeding material could be released in both clear and cloudy conditions to build up a background concentration of efficient ice nuclei so that non-contrail cirrus will experience these nuclei and grow larger ice crystals. Flight corridors are denser in the high- and mid-latitudes where global warming is more severe. A risk with any geoengineering experiment is that it could affect climate in unforeseen ways, causing more harm than good. Since seeding aerosol residence times in the troposphere are 1-2 weeks, the climate might return back to its normal state within a few months after stopping the geoengineering. A drawback to this approach is that it would not stop ocean acidification. It may not have many of the draw-backs that stratospheric injection of sulfur species has, such as ozone destruction, decreased solar radiation possibly altering the

Structural Evolution of a Warm Frontal Precipitation Band During GCPEx

Science.gov (United States)

Colle, Brian A.; Naeger, Aaron; Molthan, Andrew; Nesbitt, Stephen

2015-01-01

A warm frontal precipitation band developed over a few hours 50-100 km to the north of a surface warm front. The 3-km WRF was able to realistically simulate band development, although the model is somewhat too weak. Band genesis was associated with weak frontogenesis (deformation) in the presence of weak potential and conditional instability feeding into the band region, while it was closer to moist neutral within the band. As the band matured, frontogenesis increased, while the stability gradually increased in the banding region. Cloud top generating cells were prevalent, but not in WRF (too stable). The band decayed as the stability increased upstream and the frontogenesis (deformation) with the warm front weakened. The WRF may have been too weak and short-lived with the band because too stable and forcing too weak (some micro issues as well).

King penguin population threatened by Southern Ocean warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Le Bohec, Céline; Durant, Joël M; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Stenseth, Nils C; Park, Young-Hyang; Pradel, Roger; Grémillet, David; Gendner, Jean-Paul; Le Maho, Yvon

2008-02-19

Seabirds are sensitive indicators of changes in marine ecosystems and might integrate and/or amplify the effects of climate forcing on lower levels in food chains. Current knowledge on the impact of climate changes on penguins is primarily based on Antarctic birds identified by using flipper bands. Although flipper bands have helped to answer many questions about penguin biology, they were shown in some penguin species to have a detrimental effect. Here, we present for a Subantarctic species, king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus), reliable results on the effect of climate on survival and breeding based on unbanded birds but instead marked by subcutaneous electronic tags. We show that warm events negatively affect both breeding success and adult survival of this seabird. However, the observed effect is complex because it affects penguins at several spatio/temporal levels. Breeding reveals an immediate response to forcing during warm phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation affecting food availability close to the colony. Conversely, adult survival decreases with a remote sea-surface temperature forcing (i.e., a 2-year lag warming taking place at the northern boundary of pack ice, their winter foraging place). We suggest that this time lag may be explained by the delay between the recruitment and abundance of their prey, adjusted to the particular 1-year breeding cycle of the king penguin. The derived population dynamic model suggests a 9% decline in adult survival for a 0.26 degrees C warming. Our findings suggest that king penguin populations are at heavy extinction risk under the current global warming predictions.

Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature

KAUST Repository

Chaidez, Veronica; Dreano, Denis; Agusti, Susana; Duarte, Carlos M.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2017-01-01

Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade-1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 - 2.0 °C before the end of the century1. However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea's thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 - 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade-1, while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade-1, all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.

Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature

KAUST Repository

Chaidez, Veronica

2017-08-09

Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade-1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 - 2.0 °C before the end of the century1. However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea\\'s thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 - 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade-1, while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade-1, all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.

Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature.

Science.gov (United States)

Chaidez, V; Dreano, D; Agusti, S; Duarte, C M; Hoteit, I

2017-08-15

Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade -1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 - 2.0 °C before the end of the century 1 . However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea's thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 - 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade -1 , while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade -1 , all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.

Climate warming feedback from mountain birch forest expansion: reduced albedo dominates carbon uptake.

Science.gov (United States)

de Wit, Heleen A; Bryn, Anders; Hofgaard, Annika; Karstensen, Jonas; Kvalevåg, Maria M; Peters, Glen P

2014-07-01

Expanding high-elevation and high-latitude forest has contrasting climate feedbacks through carbon sequestration (cooling) and reduced surface reflectance (warming), which are yet poorly quantified. Here, we present an empirically based projection of mountain birch forest expansion in south-central Norway under climate change and absence of land use. Climate effects of carbon sequestration and albedo change are compared using four emission metrics. Forest expansion was modeled for a projected 2.6 °C increase in summer temperature in 2100, with associated reduced snow cover. We find that the current (year 2000) forest line of the region is circa 100 m lower than its climatic potential due to land-use history. In the future scenarios, forest cover increased from 12% to 27% between 2000 and 2100, resulting in a 59% increase in biomass carbon storage and an albedo change from 0.46 to 0.30. Forest expansion in 2100 was behind its climatic potential, forest migration rates being the primary limiting factor. In 2100, the warming caused by lower albedo from expanding forest was 10 to 17 times stronger than the cooling effect from carbon sequestration for all emission metrics considered. Reduced snow cover further exacerbated the net warming feedback. The warming effect is considerably stronger than previously reported for boreal forest cover, because of the typically low biomass density in mountain forests and the large changes in albedo of snow-covered tundra areas. The positive climate feedback of high-latitude and high-elevation expanding forests with seasonal snow cover exceeds those of afforestation at lower elevation, and calls for further attention of both modelers and empiricists. The inclusion and upscaling of these climate feedbacks from mountain forests into global models is warranted to assess the potential global impacts. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Plasticity in habitat use determines metabolic response of fish to global warming in stratified lakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Busch, Susan; Kirillin, Georgiy; Mehner, Thomas

2012-09-01

We used a coupled lake physics and bioenergetics-based foraging model to evaluate how the plasticity in habitat use modifies the seasonal metabolic response of two sympatric cold-water fishes (vendace and Fontane cisco, Coregonus spp.) under a global warming scenario for the year 2100. In different simulations, the vertically migrating species performed either a plastic strategy (behavioral thermoregulation) by shifting their population depth at night to maintain the temperatures occupied at current in-situ observations, or a fixed strategy (no thermoregulation) by keeping their occupied depths at night but facing modified temperatures. The lake physics model predicted higher temperatures above 20 m and lower temperatures below 20 m in response to warming. Using temperature-zooplankton relationships, the density of zooplankton prey was predicted to increase at the surface, but to decrease in hypolimnetic waters. Simulating the fixed strategy, growth was enhanced only for the deeper-living cisco due to the shift in thermal regime at about 20 m. In contrast, simulating the plastic strategy, individual growth of cisco and young vendace was predicted to increase compared to growth currently observed in the lake. Only growth rates of older vendace are reduced under future global warming scenarios irrespective of the behavioral strategy. However, performing behavioral thermoregulation would drive both species into the same depth layers, and hence will erode vertical microhabitat segregation and intensify inter-specific competition between the coexisting coregonids.

Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Berg, Alexis; Findell, Kirsten; Lintner, Benjamin; Giannini, Alessandra; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van den Hurk, Bart; Lorenz, Ruth; Pitman, Andy; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Cheruy, Frédérique; Ducharne, Agnès; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C. D.

2016-01-01

The response of the terrestrial water cycle to global warming is central to issues including water resources, agriculture and ecosystem health. Recent studies indicate that aridity, defined in terms of atmospheric supply (precipitation, P) and demand (potential evapotranspiration, Ep) of water at the land surface, will increase globally in a warmer world. Recently proposed mechanisms for this response emphasize the driving role of oceanic warming and associated atmospheric processes. Here we show that the aridity response is substantially amplified by land–atmosphere feedbacks associated with the land surface’s response to climate and CO2 change. Using simulations from the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we show that global aridity is enhanced by the feedbacks of projected soil moisture decrease on land surface temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. The physiological impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on vegetation exerts a qualitatively similar control on aridity. We reconcile these findings with previously proposed mechanisms by showing that the moist enthalpy change over land is unaffected by the land hydrological response. Thus, although oceanic warming constrains the combined moisture and temperature changes over land, land hydrology modulates the partitioning of this enthalpy increase towards increased aridity.

Explicit calculation of indirect global warming potentials for halons using atmospheric models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. J. Wuebbles

2009-11-01

Full Text Available The concept of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs has been extensively used in policy consideration as a relative index for comparing the climate impact of an emitted greenhouse gas (GHG, relative to carbon dioxide with equal mass emissions. Ozone depletion due to emission of chlorinated or brominated halocarbons leads to cooling of the climate system in the opposite direction to the direct warming contribution by halocarbons as GHGs. This cooling is a key indirect effect of the halocarbons on climatic radiative forcing, which is accounted for by indirect GWPs. With respect to climate, it is critical to understand net influences considering direct warming and indirect cooling effects especially for Halons due to the greater ozone-depleting efficiency of bromine over chlorine. Until now, the indirect GWPs have been calculated using a parameterized approach based on the concept of Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC and the observed ozone depletion over the last few decades. As a step towards obtaining indirect GWPs through a more robust approach, we use atmospheric models to explicitly calculate the indirect GWPs of Halon-1211 and Halon-1301 for a 100-year time horizon. State-of-the-art global chemistry-transport models (CTMs were used as the computational tools to derive more realistic ozone depletion changes caused by an added pulse emission of the two major Halons at the surface. The radiative forcings on climate from the ozone changes have been calculated for indirect GWPs using an atmospheric radiative transfer model (RTM. The simulated temporal variations of global average total column Halons after a pulse perturbation follow an exponential decay with an e-folding time which is consistent with the expected chemical lifetimes of the Halons. Our calculated indirect GWPs for the two Halons are much smaller than those from past studies but are within a single standard deviation of WMO (2007 values and the direct GWP values derived

Significant cooling effect on the surface due to soot particles over Brahmaputra River Valley region, India: An impact on regional climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tiwari, S.; Kumar, R.; Tunved, P.; Singh, S.; Panicker, A.S.

2016-01-01

Black carbon (BC) is an important atmospheric aerosol constituent that affects the climate by absorbing (directly) the sunlight and modifying cloud characteristics (indirectly). Here, we present first time yearlong measurements of BC and carbon monoxide (CO) from an urban location of Guwahati located in the Brahmaputra River valley (BRV) in the northeast region of India from 1st July 2013 to 30th June 2014. Daily BC concentrations varied within the range of 2.86 to 11.56 μg m"−"3 with an annual average of 7.17 ± 1.89 μg m"−"3_, while, CO varied from 0.19 to 1.20 ppm with a mean value of 0.51 ± 0.19 ppm during the study period. The concentrations of BC (8.37 μg m"−"3) and CO (0.67 ppm) were ~ 39% and ~ 55% higher during the dry months (October to March) than the wet months (April to September) suggesting that seasonal changes in meteorology and emission sources play an important role in controlling these species. The seasonal ΔBC/ΔCO ratios were highest (lowest) in the pre-monsoon (winter) 18.1 ± 1.4 μg m"−"3 ppmv"−"1 (12.6 ± 2.2 μg m"−"3 ppmv"−"1) which indicate the combustion of biofuel/biomass as well as direct emissions from fossil fuel during the pre-monsoon season. The annual BC emission was estimated to be 2.72 Gg in and around Guwahati which is about 44% lower than the mega city ‘Delhi’ (4.86 Gg). During the study period, the annual mean radiative forcing (RF) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) for clear skies of BC was + 9.5 Wm"−"2, however, the RF value at the surface (SFC) was − 21.1 Wm"−"2 which indicates the net warming and cooling effects, respectively. The highest RF at SFC was in the month of April (− 30 Wm"−"2) which is coincident with the highest BC mass level. The BC atmospheric radiative forcing (ARF) was + 30.16 (annual mean) Wm"−"2 varying from + 23.1 to + 43.8 Wm"−"2. The annual mean atmospheric heating rate (AHR) due to the BC aerosols was 0.86 K day"−"1 indicates the enhancement in radiation

Paleocene–Eocene warming and biotic response in the epicontinental West Siberian Sea

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Frieling, J.; Iakovleva, A.I.; Reichart, G.-J.; Aleksandrova, G.N.; Gnibidenko, Z.N.; Schouten, S.; Sluijs, A.

2014-01-01

We present a Paleocene–Eocene (ca. 60–52 Ma) sea-surface temperature record from sediments deposited in the epicontinental West Siberian Sea. TEX86 paleothermometry indicates long-term late Paleocene (~17 °C ca. 59 Ma) to early Eocene (26 °C at 52 Ma) sea-surface warming, consistent with trends

National action strategy on global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-11-01

A document prepared by a committee of Canadian environmental ministries proposes a strategic framework for a national action plan concerning global warming. The strategy would be carried out jointly by governments and all other sectors of the economy, taking into account the present state of scientific knowledge on global warming. Within this framework, the governments in cooperation with interested parties would take certain measures in their respective areas of competence. The main recommendations of the document include the following. The action strategy should comprise 3 elements: limiting emissions of greenhouse gases; forecasting climatic changes which Canada could undergo due to global warming and preparing for such changes; and improving scientific knowledge and the capacity to predict climatic changes. Limitations on this strategy should take into account such matters as the interaction of greenhouse gases with other pollutants, the importance of the international context, the need to adapt to new discoveries, and the importance of regional differences. Implementation of the strategy should incorporate widespread consultation of all affected sectors, sustained work on establishing international conventions and protocols on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, objectives and schedules for such reductions, and stepwise actions to control emissions in order to enable an adequate evaluation of the consequences and effectiveness of such measures. 10 figs., 2 tabs

Tribological evaluation of surface modified H13 tool steel in warm forming of Ti–6Al–4V titanium alloy sheet

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang Dan

2014-08-01

Full Text Available The H13 hot-working tool steel is widely used as die material in the warm forming of Ti–6Al–4V titanium alloy sheet. However, under the heating condition, severe friction and lubricating conditions between the H13 tools and Ti–6Al–4V titanium alloy sheet would cause difficulty in guaranteeing forming quality. Surface modification may be used to control the level of friction force, reduce the friction wear and extend the service life of dies. In this paper, four surface modification methods (chromium plating, TiAlN coating, surface polishing and nitriding treatment were applied to the H13 surfaces. Taking the coefficient of friction (CoF and the wear degree as evaluation indicators, the high-temperature tribological behavior of the surface modified H13 steel was experimentally investigated under different tribological conditions. The results of this study indicate that the tribological properties of the TiAlN coating under dry friction condition are better than the others for a wide range of temperature (from room temperature to 500 °C, while there is little difference of tribological properties between different surface modifications under graphite lubricated condition, and the variation law of CoF with temperature under graphite lubricated is opposite to that under the dry friction.

Estimation of Surface Deformation due to Pasni Earthquake Using SAR Interferometry

Science.gov (United States)

Ali, M.; Shahzad, M. I.; Nazeer, M.; Kazmi, J. H.

2018-04-01

Earthquake cause ground deformation in sedimented surface areas like Pasni and that is a hazard. Such earthquake induced ground displacements can seriously damage building structures. On 7 February 2017, an earthquake with 6.3 magnitudes strike near to Pasni. We have successfully distinguished widely spread ground displacements for the Pasni earthquake by using InSAR-based analysis with Sentinel-1 satellite C-band data. The maps of surface displacement field resulting from the earthquake are generated. Sentinel-1 Wide Swath data acquired from 9 December 2016 to 28 February 2017 was used to generate displacement map. The interferogram revealed the area of deformation. The comparison map of interferometric vertical displacement in different time period was treated as an evidence of deformation caused by earthquake. Profile graphs of interferogram were created to estimate the vertical displacement range and trend. Pasni lies in strong earthquake magnitude effected area. The major surface deformation areas are divided into different zones based on significance of deformation. The average displacement in Pasni is estimated about 250 mm. Maximum pasni area is uplifted by earthquake and maximum uplifting occurs was about 1200 mm. Some of areas was subsidized like the areas near to shoreline and maximum subsidence was estimated about 1500 mm. Pasni is facing many problems due to increasing sea water intrusion under prevailing climatic change where land deformation due to a strong earthquake can augment its vulnerability.

Global Warming: A Reduced Threat?.

Science.gov (United States)

Michaels, Patrick J.; Stooksbury, David E.

1992-10-01

One popular and apocalyptic vision of the world influenced by increasing concentrations of infrared-absorbing trace gases is that of ecological disaster brought about by rapidly rising temperatures, sea level, and evaporation rates. This vision developed from a suite of climate models that have since considerably changed in both their dynamics and their estimates of prospective warming. Observed temperatures indicate that much more warming should already have taken place than predicted by earlier models in the Northern Hemisphere, and that night, rather than day, readings in that hemisphere show a relative warming. A high-latitude polar-night warming or a general night warming could be either benign or beneficial. A large number of plant species show both increased growth and greater water-use efficiency under enhanced carbon dioxide.An extensive body of evidence now indicates that anthropo-generated sulfate emissions are mitigating some of the warming, and that increased cloudiness as a result of these emissions will further enhance night, rather than day, warming. The sulfate emissions, though, are not sufficient to explain all of the night warming. However, the sensitivity of climate to anthropogenerated aerosols, and the general lack of previously predicted warming, could drastically alter the debate on global warming in favor of less expensive policies.

Anthropogenic Warming Impacts on Today's Sierra Nevada Snowpack and Flood Severity

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, X.; Hall, A. D.; Berg, N.

2017-12-01

Focusing on this recent extreme wet year over California, this study investigates the warming impacts on the snowpack and the flood severity over the Sierra Nevada (SN), where the majority of the precipitation occurs during the winter season and early spring. One of our goals is to quantify anthropogenic warming impacts on the snow water equivalent (SWE) including recent historical warming and prescribed future projected warming scenarios; This work also explores to what extent flooding risk has increased under those warming cases. With a good representation of the historical precipitation and snowpack over the Sierra Nevada from the historical reference run at 9km (using WRF), the results from the offline Noah-MP simulations with perturbed near-surface temperatures reveal magnificent impacts of warming to the loss of the average snowpack. The reduction of the SWE under warming mainly results from the decreased rain-to-snow conversion with a weaker effect from increased snowmelt. Compared to the natural case, the past industrial warming decreased the maximum SWE by about one-fifth averaged over the study area. Future continuing warming can result in around one-third reduction of current maximum SWE under RCP4.5 emissions scenario, and the loss can reach to two-thirds under RCP8.5 as a "business-as-usual" condition. The impact of past warming is particularly outstanding over the North SN region where precipitation dominates and over the middle elevation regions where the snow mainly distributes. In the future, the warming impact on SWE progresses to higher regions, and so to the south and east. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the projected mid-elevation snowpack almost disappears by April 1st with even high-elevation snow reduced by about half. Along with the loss of the snowpack, as the temperature warms, floods can also intensify with increased early season runoff especially under heavy-rainy days caused by the weakened rain-to-snow processes and

Aridity changes in the Tibetan Plateau in a warming climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Yanhong; Li, Xia; Xu, Jianwei; Ruby Leung, L.; Chen, Deliang

2015-01-01

Desertification in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has drawn increasing attention in the recent decades. It has been postulated as a consequence of increasing climate aridity due to the observed warming. This study quantifies the aridity changes in the TP and attributes the changes to different climatic factors. Using the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (P/PET) as an aridity index, we used observed meteorological records at 83 stations in the TP to calculate PET using the Penman–Monteith algorithm and the ratio. Spatial and temporal changes of P/PET in 1979–2011 were analyzed. Results show that stations located in the arid and semi-arid northwestern TP are becoming significantly wetter, and half of the stations in the semi-humid eastern TP are becoming drier, though not significantly, in the recent three decades. The aridity change patterns are significantly correlated with the change patterns of precipitation, sunshine duration and diurnal temperature range. Temporal correlations between the annual P/PET ratio and other meteorological variables confirm the significant correlation between aridity and the three variables, with precipitation being the dominant driver of P/PET changes at the interannual time scale. Annual PET are insignificantly but negatively correlated with P/PET in the cold season. In the warm season, however, the correlation between PET and P/PET is significant at the confidence level of 99.9% when the cryosphere near the surface melts. Significant correlation between annual wind speed and aridity occurs in limited locations and months. Consistency in the climatology pattern and linear trends in surface air temperature and precipitation calculated using station data, gridded data, and nearest grid-to-stations for the TP average and across sub-basins indicate the robustness of the trends despite the large spatial heterogeneity in the TP that challenge climate monitoring. (letter)

Use of emulsion for warm mix asphalt

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahabir Panda

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Due to increase in energy costs and emission problems in hot mix asphalt usually used, it brought a great interest to the researchers to develop the warm mix technology for pavement constructions. Commonly known as warm mix asphalt (WMA, it is a typical method in the bituminous paving technology, which allows production and placement of bituminous mixes at lower temperatures than that used for hot mix asphalt (HMA. The WMA involves an environmental friendly production process that utilises organic additives, chemical additives and water based technologies. The organic and chemical additives are normally very costly and still involve certain amount of environmental issues. These factors motivated the authors to take up this technology using simple, environment friendly and somewhat cost effective procedure. In this study, an attempt has been made to prepare warm mixes by first pre-coating the aggregates with medium setting bitumen emulsion (MS and then mixing the semi-coated aggregates with VG 30 bitumen at a lower temperature than normally required. After a number of trials it was observed that mostly three mixing temperatures, namely temperatures 110 °C, 120 °C and 130 °C were appropriate to form the bituminous mixes with satisfactory homogeneity and consistency and as such were maintained throughout this study. Marshall samples for paving mixes were prepared using this procedure for dense bituminous macadam (DBM gradings as per the specifications of Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MORTH and subsequently Marshall properties of the resultant mixes were studied with the main objective of deciding the different parameters that were considered for development of appropriate warm mix asphalt. In this study it has been observed that out of three mixing temperatures tried, the mixes prepared at 120 °C with bitumen-emulsion composition of 80B:20E for DBM warm mix, offer highest Marshall stability and highest indirect tensile strength

Portrait of a Warming Ocean and Rising Sea Levels: Trend of Sea Level Change 1993-2008

Science.gov (United States)

2008-01-01

Warming water and melting land ice have raised global mean sea level 4.5 centimeters (1.7 inches) from 1993 to 2008. But the rise is by no means uniform. This image, created with sea surface height data from the Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellites, shows exactly where sea level has changed during this time and how quickly these changes have occurred. It's also a road map showing where the ocean currently stores the growing amount of heat it is absorbing from Earth's atmosphere and the heat it receives directly from the Sun. The warmer the water, the higher the sea surface rises. The location of heat in the ocean and its movement around the globe play a pivotal role in Earth's climate. Light blue indicates areas in which sea level has remained relatively constant since 1993. White, red, and yellow are regions where sea levels have risen the most rapidly up to 10 millimeters per year and which contain the most heat. Green areas have also risen, but more moderately. Purple and dark blue show where sea levels have dropped, due to cooler water. The dramatic variation in sea surface heights and heat content across the ocean are due to winds, currents and long-term changes in patterns of circulation. From 1993 to 2008, the largest area of rapidly rising sea levels and the greatest concentration of heat has been in the Pacific, which now shows the characteristics of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a feature that can last 10 to 20 years or even longer. In this 'cool' phase, the PDO appears as a horseshoe-shaped pattern of warm water in the Western Pacific reaching from the far north to the Southern Ocean enclosing a large wedge of cool water with low sea surface heights in the eastern Pacific. This ocean/climate phenomenon may be caused by wind-driven Rossby waves. Thousands of kilometers long, these waves move from east to west on either side of the equator changing the distribution of water mass and heat. This image of sea level trend also reveals a significant

Physical Responses of Convective Heavy Rainfall to Future Warming Condition: Case Study of the Hiroshima Event

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kenshi Hibino

2018-04-01

Full Text Available An extreme precipitation event happened at Hiroshima in 2014. Over 200 mm of total rainfall was observed on the night of August 19th, which caused floods and many landslides. The rainfall event was estimated to be a rare event happening once in approximately 30 years. The physical response of this event to the change of the future atmospheric condition, which includes a temperature increase on average and convective stability change, is investigated in the present study using a 27-member ensemble experiment and pseudo global warming downscaling method. The experiment is integrated using the Japan Meteorological Research Institute non-hydrostatic regional climate model. A very high-resolution horizontal grid, 500 m, is used to reproduce dense cumulonimbus cloud formation causing heavy rainfall in the model. The future climate condition determined by a higher greenhouse gas concentration is prescribed to the model, in which the surface air temperature globally averaged is 4 K warmer than that in the preindustrial era. The total amounts of precipitation around the Hiroshima area in the future experiments are closer to or slightly lower than in the current experiments in spite of the increase in water vapor due to the atmospheric warming. The effect of the water vapor increase on extreme precipitation is found to be canceled out by the suppression of convection due to the thermal stability enhancement. The fact that future extreme precipitation like the Hiroshima event is not intensified is in contrast to the well-known result that extreme rainfall tends to be intensified in the future. The results in the present study imply that the response of extreme precipitation to global warming differs for each rainfall phenomenon.

Surface behaviour of first-wall materials due to the synergistic effect of helium and hydrogen isotopes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abramov, E.; Moreno, D.; Solovioff, G.; Eliezer, D.

1994-01-01

Scanning electron microscopy has been used to investigate changes in surface morphology due to helium implantation and hydrogen charging. Pure polycrystalline nickel, OFHC copper and Cu-1.8Be-0.2Co (CAD 172) alloy have been studied. The influence of helium implantation parameters on blister formation and growth was investigated. Hydrogen charging (cathodic or thermal-gas) was found to lower the helium content needed for blistering and surface exfoliation. The effect of heating, carried out after hydrogen charging, was also studied. For the copper samples, hydrogen damage was produced by oxide reduction at the oxide-metal interface. This damage was found to be lower when the sputtering due to helium implantation increased. The CuBe alloy showed a greater hydrogen resistance due to the stability of the surface BeO. ((orig.))

How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

2017-03-11

Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises as to exploring how the seasonal warming effects influence the annual development of Ae. albopictus. The model consolidates a 35-year climate dataset and designs fifteen warming patterns that increase the temperature of selected seasons. Based on a recently developed mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, the model simulates the thermal reaction of blood-fed adults by systematically increasing the temperature from 0.5 to 5 °C at an interval of 0.5 °C in each warming pattern. The results show the warming effects are different across seasons. The warming effects in spring and winter facilitate the development of the species by shortening the diapause period. The warming effect in summer is primarily negative by inhibiting mosquito development. The warming effect in autumn is considerably mixed. However, these warming effects cannot carry over to the following year, possibly due to the fact that under the extreme weather in winter the mosquito fully ceases from development and survives in terms of diapause eggs. As the historical pattern of global warming manifests seasonal fluctuations, this study provides corroborating and previously ignored evidence of how such seasonality affects the mosquito development. Understanding this short-term temperature-driven mechanism as one chain of the transmission events is critical to refining the thermal reaction norms of the epidemic vector under global warming as well as developing effective mosquito prevention and control strategies.

Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century

Science.gov (United States)

Knutson, Thomas R.; Zhang, Rong; Horowitz, Larry W.

2016-01-01

Global mean temperature over 1998 to 2015 increased at a slower rate (0.1 K decade−1) compared with the ensemble mean (forced) warming rate projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models (0.2 K decade−1). Here we investigate the prospects for this slower rate to persist for a decade or more. The slower rate could persist if the transient climate response is overestimated by CMIP5 models by a factor of two, as suggested by recent low-end estimates. Alternatively, using CMIP5 models' warming rate, the slower rate could still persist due to strong multidecadal internal variability cooling. Combining the CMIP5 ensemble warming rate with internal variability episodes from a single climate model—having the strongest multidecadal variability among CMIP5 models—we estimate that the warming slowdown (<0.1 K decade−1 trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11% and 6%, respectively. PMID:27901045

The Influence of Stratospheric Sulphate Aerosol Deployment on the Surface Air Temperature and the Risk of an Abrupt Global Warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roland von Glasow

2010-12-01

Full Text Available We used the ‘Radiative-Convective Model of the Earth-atmosphere system’ (OGIM to investigate the cooling effects induced by sulphur injections into the stratosphere. The ensemble of numerical calculations was based on the A1B scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES. Several geoengineered scenarios were analysed, including the abrupt interruption of these injections in different scenarios and at different dates. We focused on the surface air temperature (SAT anomalies induced by stratospheric sulphate aerosol generated in order to compensate future warming. Results show that continuous deployment of sulphur into the stratosphere could induce a lasting decrease in SAT. Retaining a constant aerosol loading equivalent to 6 TgS would delay the expected global warming by 53 years. Keeping the SAT constant in a context of increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs means that the aerosol loading needs to be increased by 1.9% annually. This would offset the effect of increasing GHG under the A1B scenario. A major focus of this study was on the heating rates of SAT that would arise in different scenarios in case of an abrupt cessation of sulphur injections into the stratosphere. Our model results show that heating rates after geoengineering interruption would be 15–28 times higher than in a case without geoengineering, with likely important consequences for life on Earth. Larger initial sulphate loadings induced more intense warming rates when the geoengineering was stopped at the same time. This implies that, if sulphate loading was increased to maintain constant SAT in the light of increasing GHG concentrations, the later the geoengineering interruption was to occur, the higher the heating rates would be. Consequently, geoengineering techniques like this should only be regarded as last-resort measures and require intense further research should they ever become necessary.

Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Naumann, G.; Alfieri, L.; Wyser, K.; Mentaschi, L.; Betts, R. A.; Carrao, H.; Spinoni, J.; Vogt, J.; Feyen, L.

2018-04-01

Higher evaporative demands and more frequent and persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming compared to preindustrial temperatures. Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply-demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north-west China, and parts of Southern America. In approximately 20% of the global land surface, drought magnitude will halve with warming of 1.5°C and higher levels, mainly most land areas north of latitude 55°N, but also parts of South America and Eastern and South-eastern Asia. A progressive and significant increase in frequency of droughts is projected with warming in the Mediterranean basin, most of Africa, West and Southern Asia, Central America, and Oceania, where droughts are projected to happen 5 to 10 times more frequent even under ambitious mitigation targets and current 100-year events could occur every two to five years under 3°C of warming.

The Hydrological Sensitivity to Global Warming and Solar Geoengineering Derived from Thermodynamic Constraints

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kleidon, Alex; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Renner, Maik

2015-01-16

We derive analytic expressions of the transient response of the hydrological cycle to surface warming from an extremely simple energy balance model in which turbulent heat fluxes are constrained by the thermodynamic limit of maximum power. For a given magnitude of steady-state temperature change, this approach predicts the transient response as well as the steady-state change in surface energy partitioning and the hydrologic cycle. We show that the transient behavior of the simple model as well as the steady state hydrological sensitivities to greenhouse warming and solar geoengineering are comparable to results from simulations using highly complex models. Many of the global-scale hydrological cycle changes can be understood from a surface energy balance perspective, and our thermodynamically-constrained approach provides a physically robust way of estimating global hydrological changes in response to altered radiative forcing.

Characterizing changes in soil bacterial community structure in response to short-term warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xiong, Jinbo [State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing China; School of Marine Sciences, Ningbo University, Ningbo China; Sun, Huaibo [State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing China; Peng, Fei [Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou China; Zhang, Huayong [State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing China; Xue, Xian [Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou China; Gibbons, Sean M. [Argonne National Laboratory Biosciences Division, Argonne IL USA; Graduate Program in Biophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago IL USA; Gilbert, Jack A. [Argonne National Laboratory Biosciences Division, Argonne IL USA; Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago IL USA; Chu, Haiyan [State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing China

2014-02-18

High altitude alpine meadows are experiencing considerably greater than average increases in soil surface temperature, potentially as a result of ongoing climate change. The effects of warming on plant productivity and soil edaphic variables have been established previously, but the influence of warming on soil microbial community structure has not been well characterized. Here, the impact of 15 months of soil warming (both + 1 and + 2 degrees C) on bacterial community structure was examined in a field experiment on a Tibetan plateau alpine meadow using bar-coded pyrosequencing. Warming significantly changed (P < 0.05) the structure of the soil bacterial community, but the alpha diversity was not dramatically affected. Changes in the abundance of the Actinobacteria and Alphaproteobacteria were found to contribute the most to differences between ambient (AT) and artificially warmed conditions. A variance partitioning analysis (VPA) showed that warming directly explained 7.15% variation in bacterial community structure, while warming-induced changes in soil edaphic and plant phenotypic properties indirectly accounted for 28.3% and 20.6% of the community variance, respectively. Interestingly, certain taxa showed an inconsistent response to the two warming treatments, for example Deltaproteobacteria showed a decreased relative abundance at + 1 degrees C, but a return to AT control relative abundance at + 2 degrees C. This suggests complex microbial dynamics that could result from conditional dependencies between bacterial taxa.

Long-Term Warming Shifts the Composition of Bacterial Communities in the Phyllosphere of Galium album in a Permanent Grassland Field-Experiment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ebru L. Aydogan

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Global warming is currently a much discussed topic with as yet largely unexplored consequences for agro-ecosystems. Little is known about the warming effect on the bacterial microbiota inhabiting the plant surface (phyllosphere, which can have a strong impact on plant growth and health, as well as on plant diseases and colonization by human pathogens. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of moderate surface warming on the diversity and composition of the bacterial leaf microbiota of the herbaceous plant Galium album. Leaves were collected from four control and four surface warmed (+2°C plots located at the field site of the Environmental Monitoring and Climate Impact Research Station Linden in Germany over a 6-year period. Warming had no effect on the concentration of total number of cells attached to the leaf surface as counted by Sybr Green I staining after detachment, but changes in the diversity and phylogenetic composition of the bacterial leaf microbiota analyzed by bacterial 16S rRNA gene Illumina amplicon sequencing were observed. The bacterial phyllosphere microbiota were dominated by Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, and Actinobacteria. Warming caused a significant higher relative abundance of members of the Gammaproteobacteria, Actinobacteria, and Firmicutes, and a lower relative abundance of members of the Alphaproteobacteria and Bacteroidetes. Plant beneficial bacteria like Sphingomonas spp. and Rhizobium spp. occurred in significantly lower relative abundance in leaf samples of warmed plots. In contrast, several members of the Enterobacteriaceae, especially Enterobacter and Erwinia, and other potential plant or human pathogenic genera such as Acinetobacter and insect-associated Buchnera and Wolbachia spp. occurred in higher relative abundances in the phyllosphere samples from warmed plots. This study showed for the first time the long-term impact of moderate (+2°C surface warming on the phyllosphere microbiota on

Greenhouse gases and global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

From previous articles we have learned about the complexities of our environment, its atmosphere and its climate system. we have also learned that climate change and, therefore global warm and cool periods are naturally occurring phenomena. Moreover, all scientific evidence suggests that global warming, are likely to occur again naturally in the future. However, we have not yet considered the role of the rates of climate change in affecting the biosphere. It appears that how quickly the climate changes may be more important than the change itself. In light of this concern, let us now consider the possibility that, is due to human activity. We may over the next century experience global warming at rates and magnitudes unparalleled in recent geologic history. The following questions are answered; What can we learn from past climates? What do we know about global climates over the past 100 years? What causes temperature change? What are the greenhouse gases? How much have concentration of greenhouse gases increased in recent years? Why are increases in concentrations of greenhouse of concern? What is the e nhanced greenhouse effect ? How can human activity impact the global climate? What are some reasons for increased concentrations of greenhouse gases? What are fossil fuel and how do they transform into greenhouse gases? Who are the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases? Why are canada per capita emissions of greenhouse gases relatively high? (Author)

Decadal warming causes a consistent and persistent shift from heterotrophic to autotrophic respiration in contrasting permafrost ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Hicks Pries, Caitlin E; van Logtestijn, Richard S P; Schuur, Edward A G; Natali, Susan M; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Aerts, Rien; Dorrepaal, Ellen

2015-12-01

Soil carbon in permafrost ecosystems has the potential to become a major positive feedback to climate change if permafrost thaw increases heterotrophic decomposition. However, warming can also stimulate autotrophic production leading to increased ecosystem carbon storage-a negative climate change feedback. Few studies partitioning ecosystem respiration examine decadal warming effects or compare responses among ecosystems. Here, we first examined how 11 years of warming during different seasons affected autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration in a bryophyte-dominated peatland in Abisko, Sweden. We used natural abundance radiocarbon to partition ecosystem respiration into autotrophic respiration, associated with production, and heterotrophic decomposition. Summertime warming decreased the age of carbon respired by the ecosystem due to increased proportional contributions from autotrophic and young soil respiration and decreased proportional contributions from old soil. Summertime warming's large effect was due to not only warmer air temperatures during the growing season, but also to warmer deep soils year-round. Second, we compared ecosystem respiration responses between two contrasting ecosystems, the Abisko peatland and a tussock-dominated tundra in Healy, Alaska. Each ecosystem had two different timescales of warming (permafrost ecosystems. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool

Science.gov (United States)

Raymond, David J.; Fuchs, Željka

2018-04-01

A minimal model of the interaction of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) with the Indo-Pacific warm pool is presented. This model is based on the linear superposition of the flow associated with a highly simplified treatment of the MJO plus the flow induced by the warm pool itself. Both of these components parameterize rainfall as proportional to the column water vapor, which in turn is governed by a linearized moisture equation in which WISHE (wind induced surface heat exchange) plays a governing role. The MJO component has maximum growth rate for planetary wavenumber 1 and is equatorially trapped with purely zonal winds. The warm pool component exhibits a complex flow pattern, differing significantly from the classical Gill model as a result of the mean easterly flow. The combination of the two produce a flow that reproduces many aspects of the observed global flow associated with the MJO.

Isopleths of surface air concentration and surface air kerma rate due to a radioactive cloud released from a stack (3)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tachibana, Haruo; Kikuchi, Masamitsu; Sekita, Tsutomu; Yamaguchi, Takenori

2004-06-01

This report is a revised edition of 'Isopleths of Surface Air Concentration and Surface Air Absorbed Dose Rate due to a Radioactive Cloud Released from a Stack(II) '(JAERI-M 90-206) and based on the revised Nuclear Safety Guidelines reflected the ICRP1990 Recommendation. Characteristics of this report are the use of Air Karma Rate (Gy/h) instead of Air Absorbed Dose Rate (Gy/h), and the record of isopleths of surface air concentration and surface air karma rate on CD-ROM. These recorded data on CD-ROM can be printed out on paper and/or pasted on digital map by personal computer. (author)

Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence.

Science.gov (United States)

Willett, Katharine M; Gillett, Nathan P; Jones, Philip D; Thorne, Peter W

2007-10-11

Water vapour is the most important contributor to the natural greenhouse effect, and the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere is expected to increase under conditions of greenhouse-gas-induced warming, leading to a significant feedback on anthropogenic climate change. Theoretical and modelling studies predict that relative humidity will remain approximately constant at the global scale as the climate warms, leading to an increase in specific humidity. Although significant increases in surface specific humidity have been identified in several regions, and on the global scale in non-homogenized data, it has not been shown whether these changes are due to natural or human influences on climate. Here we use a new quality-controlled and homogenized gridded observational data set of surface humidity, with output from a coupled climate model, to identify and explore the causes of changes in surface specific humidity over the late twentieth century. We identify a significant global-scale increase in surface specific humidity that is attributable mainly to human influence. Specific humidity is found to have increased in response to rising temperatures, with relative humidity remaining approximately constant. These changes may have important implications, because atmospheric humidity is a key variable in determining the geographical distribution and maximum intensity of precipitation, the potential maximum intensity of tropical cyclones, and human heat stress, and has important effects on the biosphere and surface hydrology.

Partitioning the effects of Global Warming on the Hydrological Cycle with Stable Isotopes in Water Vapor

Science.gov (United States)

Dee, S. G.; Russell, J. M.; Nusbaumer, J. M.; Konecky, B. L.; Buenning, N. H.; Lee, J. E.; Noone, D.

2016-12-01

General circulation models (GCMs) suggest that much of the global hydrological cycle's response to anthropogenic warming will be caused by increased lower-tropospheric water vapor concentrations and associated feedbacks. However, fingerprinting changes in the global hydrological cycle due to anthropogenic warming remains challenging. Held and Soden (2006) predicted that as lower-tropospheric water vapor increases, atmospheric circulation will weaken as climate warms to maintain the surface energy budget. Unfortunately, the strength of this feedback and the fallout for other branches of the hydrological cycle is difficult to constrain in situ or with GCMs alone. We demonstrate the utility of stable hydrogen isotope ratios in atmospheric water vapor to quantitatively trace changes in atmospheric circulation and convective mass flux in a warming world. We compare water isotope-enabled GCM experiments for control (present-day) CO2 vs. high CO2(2x, 4x) atmospheres in two GCMs, IsoGSM and iCAM5. We evaluate changes in the distribution of water vapor, vertical velocity (omega), and the stream function between these experiments in order to identify spatial patterns of circulation change over the tropical Pacific (where vertical motion is strong) and map the δD of water vapor associated with atmospheric warming. We also probe the simulations to isolate isotopic signatures associated with water vapor residence time, precipitation efficiency, divergence, and cloud physics. We show that there are robust mechanisms that moisten the troposphere and weaken convective mass flux, and that these mechanisms can be tracked using the δD of water vapor. Further, we find that these responses are most pronounced in the upper troposphere. These findings provide a framework to develop new metrics for the detection of global warming impacts to the hydrological cycle. Further, currently available satellite missions measure δD in the atmospheric boundary layer, the free atmosphere, or the

Active Movement Warm-Up Routines

Science.gov (United States)

Walter, Teri; Quint, Ashleigh; Fischer, Kim; Kiger, Joy

2011-01-01

This article presents warm-ups that are designed to physiologically and psychologically prepare students for vigorous physical activity. An active movement warm-up routine is made up of three parts: (1) active warm-up movement exercises, (2) general preparation, and (3) the energy system. These warm-up routines can be used with all grade levels…

Global Warming on Triton

Science.gov (United States)

Elliot, J. L.; Hammel, H. B.; Wasserman, L. H.; Franz, O. G.; McDonald, S. W.; Person, M. J.; Olkin, C. B.; Dunham, E. J.; Spencer, J. R.; Stansberry, J. A.;

Assessment of surface and subsurface ground disturbance due to underground mining

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khair, A.W.

1994-01-01

This paper presents highlights of the research carried out at West Virginia University in order to assess surface and subsurface ground disturbance due to longwall mining. Extensive instrumentation and measurements have been made over three longwall mines in northern West Virginia during a three-year period. Various monitoring techniques including full profile borehole extensometer, full profile borehole inclinometers, time domain reflectometry, sonic reflection technique, a unique mechanical grouting method, photographic and visual observations, standard surveying, and water-level measurements were utilized. The paper's emphasis is first on surface ground movement and its impact on integrity of surface ground and structures and second on type and magnitude of subsurface ground movements associated with mine geometry and geology. A subsidence prediction model based on implementation of both mechanisms of ground movement around the excavation and the geologic and geotechnical properties of the rock/coal surrounding the excavation has been developed. 8 refs., 14 figs., 1 tab

Radionuclides in ornithogenic sediments as evidence for recent warming in the Ross Sea region, Antarctica

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nie, Yaguang [Institute of Polar Environment, School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China); Key Laboratory of Ion Beam Bioengineering, Hefei Institutes of Physical Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Pollution Control Technology of Anhui Province, Hefei, Anhui 230031 (China); Xu, Liqiang [School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, Anhui 230009 (China); Liu, Xiaodong, E-mail: ycx@ustc.edu.cn [Institute of Polar Environment, School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China); Emslie, Steven D. [Department of Biology and Marine Biology, University of North Carolina Wilmington, 601 S. College Road, Wilmington, NC 28403 (United States)

2016-07-01

Radionuclides including {sup 210}Pb, {sup 226}Ra and {sup 137}Cs were analyzed in eight ornithogenic sediment profiles from McMurdo Sound, Ross Sea region, East Antarctica. Equilibration between {sup 210}Pb and {sup 226}Ra were reached in all eight profiles, enabling the determination of chronology within the past two centuries through the Constant Rate of Supply (CRS) model. Calculated fluxes of both {sup 210}Pb and {sup 137}Cs varied drastically among four of the profiles (MB4, MB6, CC and CL2), probably due to differences in their sedimentary environments. In addition, we found the flux data exhibiting a clear decreasing gradient in accordance with their average deposition rate, which was in turn related to the specific location of the profiles. We believe this phenomenon may correspond to global warming of the last century, since warming-induced surface runoff would bring more inflow water and detritus to the coring sites, thus enhancing the difference among the profiles. To verify this hypothesis, the deposition rate against age of the sediments was calculated based on their determined chronology, which showed ascending trends in all four profiles. The significant increase in deposition rates over the last century is probably attributable to recent warming, implying a potential utilization of radionuclides as environmental indicators in this region. - Highlights: • {sup 210}Pb, {sup 226}Ra and {sup 137}Cs were measured in ornithogenic sediment profiles. • Chronology within 200 years was determined through Constant Rate of Supply model. • Calculated nuclide fluxes decreased with average deposition rate and locations. • Deposition rate over time indicated warming which caused the flux gradient.

Investigation of Transmission Warming Technologies at Various Ambient Conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jehlik, Forrest; Iliev, Simeon; Wood, Eric; Gonder, Jeff

2017-03-28

This work details two approaches for evaluating transmission warming technology: experimental dynamometer testing and development of a simplified transmission efficiency model to quantify effects under varied real world ambient and driving conditions. Two vehicles were used for this investigation: a 2013 Ford Taurus and a 2011 Ford Fusion. The Taurus included a production transmission warming system and was tested over hot and cold ambient temperatures with the transmission warming system enabled and disabled. A robot driver was used to minimize driver variability and increase repeatability. Additionally the Fusion was tested cold and with the transmission pre-heated prior to completing the test cycles. These data were used to develop a simplified thermally responsive transmission model to estimate effects of transmission warming in real world conditions. For the Taurus, the fuel consumption variability within one standard deviation was shown to be under 0.5% for eight repeat Urban Dynamometer Driving Cycles (UDDS). These results were valid with the transmission warming system active or passive. Using the transmission warming system under 22 degrees C ambient temperature, fuel consumption reduction was shown to be 1.4%. For the Fusion, pre-warming the transmission reduced fuel consumption 2.5% for an urban drive cycle at -7 degrees C ambient temperature, with 1.5% of the 2.5% gain associated with the transmission, while consumption for the US06 test was shown to be reduced by 7% with 5.5% of the 7% gain associated with the transmission. It was found that engine warming due to conduction between the pre-heated transmission and the engine resulted in the remainder of the benefit. For +22 degrees C ambient tests, the pre-heated transmission was shown to reduce fuel consumption approximately 1% on an urban cycle, while no benefit was seen for the US06 cycle. The simplified modeling results showed gains in efficiency ranging from 0-1.5% depending on the ambient

Coastal polynyas in the southern Weddell Sea: Variability of the surface energy budget

Science.gov (United States)

Renfrew, Ian A.; King, John C.; Markus, Thorsten

2002-06-01

The surface energy budget of coastal polynyas in the southern Weddell Sea has been evaluated for the period 1992-1998 using a combination of satellite observations, meteorological data, and simple physical models. The study focuses on polynyas that habitually form off the Ronne Ice Shelf. The coastal polynya areal data are derived from an advanced multichannel polynya detection algorithm applied to passive microwave brightness temperatures. The surface sensible and latent heat fluxes are calculated via a fetch-dependent model of the convective-thermal internal boundary layer. The radiative fluxes are calculated using well-established empirical formulae and an innovative cloud model. Standard meteorological variables that are required for the flux calculations are taken from automatic weather stations and from the National Centers for Environmental Production/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalyses. The 7 year surface energy budget shows an overall oceanic warming due to the presence of coastal polynyas. For most of the period the summertime oceanic warming, due to the absorption of shortwave radiation, is approximately in balance with the wintertime oceanic cooling. However, the anomalously large summertime polynya of 1997-1998 allowed a large oceanic warming of the region. Wintertime freezing seasons are characterized by episodes of high heat fluxes interspersed with more quiescent periods and controlled by coastal polynya dynamics. The high heat fluxes are primarily due to the sensible heat flux component, with smaller complementary latent and radiative flux components. The average freezing season area-integrated energy exchange is 3.48 × 1019 J, with contributions of 63, 22, and 15% from the sensible, latent, and radiative components, respectively. The average melting season area-integrated energy exchange is -5.31 × 1019 J, almost entirely due to the radiative component. There is considerable interannual variability in the surface energy budget

Global warming: Sea ice and snow cover

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walsh, J.E.

1993-01-01

In spite of differences among global climate simulations under scenarios where atmospheric CO 2 is doubled, all models indicate at least some amplification of greenouse warming at the polar regions. Several decades of recent data on air temperature, sea ice, and snow cover of the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are summarized to illustrate the general compatibility of recent variations in those parameters. Despite a data void over the Arctic Ocean, some noteworthy patterns emerge. Warming dominates in winter and spring, as projected by global climate models, with the warming strongest over subpolar land areas of Alaska, northwestern Canada, and northern Eurasia. A time-longitude summary of Arctic sea ice variations indicates that timescales of most anomalies range from several months to several years. Wintertime maxima of total sea ice extent contain no apparent secular trends. The statistical significance of trends in recent sea ice variations was evaluated by a Monte Carlo procedure, showing a statistically significant negative trend in the summer. Snow cover data over the 20-y period of record show a noticeable decrease of Arctic snow cover in the late 1980s. This is of potential climatic significance since the accompanying decrease of surface albedo leads to a rapid increase of solar heating. 21 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

Is Global Warming likely to cause an increased incidence of Malaria?

Science.gov (United States)

Nabi, SA; Qader, SS

2009-01-01

The rise in the average temperature of earth has been described as global warming which is mainly attributed to the increasing phenomenon of the greenhouse effect. It is believed that global warming can have several harmful effects on human health, both directly and indirectly. Since malaria is greatly influenced by climatic conditions because of its direct relationship with the mosquito population, it is widely assumed that its incidence is likely to increase in a future warmer world. This review article discusses the two contradictory views regarding the association of global warming with an increased incidence of malaria. On one hand, there are many who believe that there is a strong association between the recent increase in malaria incidence and global warming. They predict that as global warming continues, malaria is set to spread in locations where previously it was limited, due to cooler climate. On the other hand, several theories have been put forward which are quite contrary to this prediction. There are multiple other factors which are accountable for the recent upsurge of malaria: for example drug resistance, mosquito control programs, public health facilities, and living standards. PMID:21483497

Soil Warming: Consequences for Foliar Litter Decay in a Spruce-Fir Forest in Maine, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Lindsey E. Rustad; Ivan J. Fernandez

1998-01-01

Increased rates of litter decay due to projected global warming could substantially alter the balance between C assimilation and release in forest soils, with consequent feedbacks to climate change. This study was conducted to investigate the effects of soil warming on the decomposition of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) and red maple (...

Global warming combat policies in energy sector of Iran

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahimi, N.; Karbassi, A. R.; Abbaspour, M.

2002-01-01

Among the efforts to slow the potential for climate change are measures to reduce emissions of CO 2 from energy use, and promote long-term storage of carbon in forests and soils. Important environmental changes due to climate change and global warming pose potentially significant risks to humans, social systems, and natural world. Many uncertainties remain regarding precise timing,magnitude, and regional patterns of climate change and the extent to which mankind and nature can adapt to any changes. Estimating technical / economical / environmental potentials for reducing CO 2 emission in energy sector and preventing of global warming is one of the main activities, which have been performed for the first time in Iran. By use of 26 factors, model on global warming combat policies in energy sector of Iran in long-medium and short term determine decreasing amount of CO 2 emission. The results and also method of providing this model will be described in this paper

Urban warming and energy consumption in Tokyo metro area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saitoh, T.; Hisada, T.; Shimada, T.

1992-01-01

This paper reports the results of field observation and three-dimensional simulation of urban warming in Tokyo metropolitan area. The three-dimensional governing equations in an urban atmospheric boundary layer were formulated by virtue of vorticity-velocity vector potential method. Particular attention was focused on the representation of a buoyancy term in equation of motion in the vertical direction, thereby describing the crossover and stratification effects near the ground surface. The vorticity-velocity potential method is superior from the view point of numerical stability and suitable for the simulation of an urban heat island. The authors first made a survey on the energy consumption in Tokyo metropolitan area. Next, the three-dimensional simulations were carried out using these data. The simulation results were then compared with the data of field observation of the surface temperature by automobiles. Further future prediction of urban warming was performed when the energy consumption rate is increased five times as large as the present rate, which will correspond to the year 2030 if the present consumption rate were maintained until then

Life on a warmer earth: possible climatic consequences of man made global warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flohn, H

1981-01-01

The interaction between energy and climate is explored, including the impact on global climate of three main energy sources: solar, nuclear and fossil fuels. The global warming problem is introduced. Comprehensive analogies with warmer times are made. From the best models available, the future global average surface temperature is found and modified, describing the global warming effects caused by greenhouse effect caused by gases other than carbon dioxide, released into the atmosphere by man, i.e. nitrous oxide, methane, ammonia, and the chlorofluoromethanes. Paleoclimatic scenarios are reviewed, showing possible effects of global warming. An 800 to 1100 ppm CO/sub 2/ concentration causes irreversible Arctic melting, leading to displacement of present climatic zones by 400 to 800 km.

Warm Mix Asphalt

Science.gov (United States)

2009-04-17

State of Alaska State of Alaska - Warm Mix Project Warm Mix Project: Location - Petersburg, Alaska which is Petersburg, Alaska which is located in the heart of Southeast Alaska located in the heart of Southeast Alaska's Inside Passage at the tip of M...

Mesoamerican Nephropathy or Global Warming Nephropathy?

Science.gov (United States)

Roncal-Jimenez, Carlos A; García-Trabanino, Ramon; Wesseling, Catharina; Johnson, Richard J

2016-01-01

An epidemic of chronic kidney disease (CKD) of unknown cause has emerged along the Pacific Coast of Central America. The disease primarily affects men working manually outdoors, and the major group affected is sugarcane workers. The disease presents with an asymptomatic rise in serum creatinine that progresses to end-stage renal disease over several years. Renal biopsies show chronic tubulointerstitial disease. While the cause remains unknown, recent studies suggest that it is driven by recurrent dehydration in the hot climate. Potential mechanisms include the development of hyperosmolarity with the activation of the aldose reductase-fructokinase pathway in the proximal tubule leading to local injury and inflammation, and the possibility that renal injury may be the consequence of repeated uricosuria and urate crystal formation as a consequence of both increased generation and urinary concentration, similar to a chronic tumor lysis syndrome. The epidemic is postulated to be increasing due to the effects of global warming. An epidemic of CKD has led to the death of more than 20,000 lives in Central America. The cause is unknown, but appears to be due to recurrent dehydration. Potential mechanisms for injury are renal damage as a consequence of recurrent hyperosmolarity and/or injury to the tubules from repeated episodes of uricosuria. The epidemic of CKD in Mesoamerica may be due to chronic recurrent dehydration as a consequence of global warming and working conditions. This entity may be one of the first major diseases attributed to climate change and the greenhouse effect. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Warming-related increases in soil CO2 efflux are explained by increased below-ground carbon flux

Science.gov (United States)

Christian P. Giardina; Creighton M. Litton; Susan E. Crow; Gregory P Asner

2014-01-01

The universally observed exponential increase in soil-surface CO2 effux (‘soil respiration’; FS) with increasing temperature has led to speculation that global warming will accelerate soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition, reduce SOC storage, and drive a positive feedback to future warming. However, interpreting temperature–FS relationships,...

Robust Hadley Circulation Changes and Increasing Global Dryness Due to CO2 Warming from CMIP-5 Model Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, K. M.

2015-01-01

In this paper, we investigate changes in the Hadley Circulation (HC) and their connections to increased global dryness under CO2 warming from CMIP-5 model projections. We find a strengthening of the ascending branch of the HC manifested in a deep-tropics squeeze (DTS), i.e., a deepening and narrowing of the convective zone, increased high clouds, and a rise of the level of maximum meridional mass outflow in the upper troposphere (200-100 hectopascals) of the deep tropics. The DTS induces atmospheric moisture divergence, reduces tropospheric relative humidity in the tropics and subtropics, in conjunction with a widening of the subsiding branches of the HC, resulting in increased frequency of dry events in preferred geographic locations worldwide. Among water cycle parameters examined, global dryness has the highest signal-to-noise ratio. Our results provide scientific bases for inferring that the observed tend of prolonged droughts in recent decades is likely attributable to greenhouse warming.

Long-Term Warming Trends in Korea and Contribution of Urbanization: An Updated Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Bo-Joung; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Min, Seung-Ki; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Choi, Youngeun; Boo, Kyung-On; Shim, Sungbo

2017-10-01

This study conducted an updated analysis of the long-term temperature trends over South Korea and reassessed the contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trends. Linear trends were analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider possible inhomogeneity due to changes in the number of available stations: recent 103 years (1912-2014), 61 years (1954-2014), and 42 years (1973-2014). The local temperature has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during the three periods, respectively, which are found 1.4-2.6 times larger than the global land mean trends. The countries located in the northern middle and high latitudes exhibit similar warming trends (about 1.5 times stronger than the global mean), suggesting a weak influence of urbanization on the local warming over South Korea. Urbanization contribution is assessed using two methods. First, results from "city minus rural" methods showed that 30-45% of the local warming trends during recent four decades are likely due to the urbanization effect, depending on station classification methods and analysis periods. Results from an "observation minus reanalysis" method using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) data sets (v2 and v2c) indicated about 25-30% contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trend during the recent six decades. However, the urbanization contribution was estimated as low as 3-11% when considering the century-long period. Our results confirm large uncertainties in the estimation of urbanization contribution when using shorter-term periods and suggest that the urbanization contribution to the century-long warming trends could be much lower.

How warm days increase belief in global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

2014-02-01

Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

Greenhouse gas emissions increase global warming

OpenAIRE

Mohajan, Haradhan

2011-01-01

This paper discusses the greenhouse gas emissions which cause the global warming in the atmosphere. In the 20th century global climate change becomes more sever which is due to greenhouse gas emissions. According to International Energy Agency data, the USA and China are approximately tied and leading global emitters of greenhouse gas emissions. Together they emit approximately 40% of global CO2 emissions, and about 35% of total greenhouse gases. The developed and developing industrialized co...

Refrigeration and global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1997-01-01

Some aspects of global warming in general, and the implications for refrigerants and refrigerator efficiency in particular, are briefly considered in a question and answer format. The concepts of Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI) are explained. GWP is an index which allows a simple comparison to be make between the warming effects of different gases on a kg to kg basis relative to carbon. The GWP depends both on the lifetime of a substance in the atmosphere and its infra-red absorption capacity. The overall warming effect of operating a refrigeration system for its entire life is measured by its TEWI. Chloroflourocarbons (CFCs) which have been widely used as refrigerants are powerful greenhouse gases with high GWPs. Because of the bank of CFCs in refrigerating systems, their levels in the atmosphere are still increasing and it will be some time before refrigerant changes will be effective in reducing the warming effects of refrigerant releases. Hydrocarbons, hydroflourocarbons and ammonia all have a part to play as substitute refrigerants. Refrigerator efficiency is very important in terms of reducing CO 2 emissions. (UK)

Soil Temperature Manipulation to Study Global Warming Effects in Arable Land

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Patil, R H; Laegdsmand, M; Olesen, Jørgen E

2013-01-01

in a plough layer. Temperature sensors were placed at 0.05, 0.1 and 0.25 m depths in soil, and 0.1 m above the soil surface in all plots, which were connected to an automated data logger. Soil-warming setup was able to maintain a mean seasonal temperature difference of 5.0 ± 0.005℃ between heated and control......-ground vegetation response as this method heats only the soil. Therefore, using infrared heaters seems to represent natural climate warming (both air and soil) much more closely and may be used for future climate manipulation field studies....

Soil temperature manipulation to study global warming effects in arable land

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Patil, Raveendra H.; Laegdsmand, Mette; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind

2013-01-01

in a plough layer. Temperature sensors were placed at 0.05, 0.1 and 0.25 m depths in soil, and 0.1 m above the soil surface in all plots, which were connected to an automated data logger. Soil-warming setup was able to maintain a mean seasonal temperature difference of 5.0 ± 0.005 oC between heated...... that of above-ground vegetation response as this method heats only the soil. Therefore, using infrared heaters seems to represent natural climate warming (both air and soil) much more closely and may be used for future climate manipulation field studies....

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific Cold Tongue Mode on ENSO Diversity Under Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yang; Li, Jianping; Zhang, Wenjun; Chen, Quanliang; Feng, Juan; Zheng, Fei; Wang, Wei; Zhou, Xin

2017-11-01

The causes of ENSO diversity, although being of great interest in recent research, do not have a consistent explanation. This study provides a possible mechanism focused on the background change of the tropical Pacific as a response to global warming. The second empirical orthogonal function mode of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific, namely the cold tongue mode (CTM), represents the background change of the tropical Pacific under global warming. Using composite analysis with surface observations and subsurface ocean assimilation data sets, we find ENSO spatial structure diversity is closely associated with the CTM. A positive CTM tends to cool the SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific and warm the SST outside, as well as widen (narrow) zonal and meridional scales for El Niño (La Niña), and vice versa. Particularly in the positive CTM phase, the air-sea action center of El Niño moves west, resembling the spatial pattern of CP-El Niño. This westward shift of center is related to the weakened Bjerknes feedback (BF) intensity by the CTM. By suppressing the SSTA growth of El Niño in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the CTM contributes to more frequent occurrence of CP-El Niño under global warming.

Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheung, William W L; Watson, Reg; Pauly, Daniel

2013-05-16

Marine fishes and invertebrates respond to ocean warming through distribution shifts, generally to higher latitudes and deeper waters. Consequently, fisheries should be affected by 'tropicalization' of catch (increasing dominance of warm-water species). However, a signature of such climate-change effects on global fisheries catch has so far not been detected. Here we report such an index, the mean temperature of the catch (MTC), that is calculated from the average inferred temperature preference of exploited species weighted by their annual catch. Our results show that, after accounting for the effects of fishing and large-scale oceanographic variability, global MTC increased at a rate of 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade between 1970 and 2006, and non-tropical MTC increased at a rate of 0.23 degrees Celsius per decade. In tropical areas, MTC increased initially because of the reduction in the proportion of subtropical species catches, but subsequently stabilized as scope for further tropicalization of communities became limited. Changes in MTC in 52 large marine ecosystems, covering the majority of the world's coastal and shelf areas, are significantly and positively related to regional changes in sea surface temperature. This study shows that ocean warming has already affected global fisheries in the past four decades, highlighting the immediate need to develop adaptation plans to minimize the effect of such warming on the economy and food security of coastal communities, particularly in tropical regions.

The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Crespin

2009-07-01

Full Text Available An ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium conducted with a three-dimensional climate model of intermediate complexity are constrained to follow temperature histories obtained from a recent compilation of well-calibrated surface temperature proxies using a simple data assimilation technique. Those simulations provide a reconstruction of the climate of the Arctic that is compatible with the model physics, the forcing applied and the proxy records. Available observational data, proxy-based reconstructions and our model results suggest that the Arctic climate is characterized by substantial variations in surface temperature over the past millennium. Though the most recent decades are likely to be the warmest of the past millennium, we find evidence for substantial past warming episodes in the Arctic. In particular, our model reconstructions show a prominent warm event during the period 1470–1520. This warm period is likely related to the internal variability of the climate system, that is the variability present in the absence of any change in external forcing. We examine the roles of competing mechanisms that could potentially produce this anomaly. This study leads us to conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation, through enhanced southwesterly winds towards northern Europe, Siberia and Canada, are likely the main cause of the late 15th/early 16th century Arctic warming.

Drifting algae and fish: Implications of tropical Sargassum invasion due to ocean warming in western Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Yamasaki, Mami; Aono, Mikina; Ogawa, Naoto; Tanaka, Koichiro; Imoto, Zenji; Nakamura, Yohei

2014-06-01

Evidence is accumulating that the invasion and extinction of habitat-forming seaweed species alters coastal community structure and ecological services, but their effects on the pelagic environment have been largely ignored. Thus, we examined the seasonal occurrence patterns of indigenous temperate and invasive tropical drifting algae and associated fish species every month for 2 years (2009-2011) in western Japan (Tosa Bay), where a rapid shift from temperate to tropical Sargassum species has been occurring in the coastal area since the late 1980s due to rising seawater temperatures. Of the 19 Sargassum species (31.6%) in drifting algae, we found that six were tropical species, whereas a study in the early 1980s found only one tropical species among 12 species (8.3%), thereby suggesting an increase in the proportion of tropical Sargassum species in drifting algae during the last 30 years. Drifting temperate algae were abundantly present from late winter to summer, whereas tropical algal clumps occurred primarily during summer. In the warm season, fish assemblages did not differ significantly between drifting temperate and tropical algae, suggesting the low host-algal specificity of most fishes. We also found that yellowtail juveniles frequently aggregated with drifting temperate algae from late winter to spring when drifting tropical algae were unavailable. Local fishermen collect these juveniles for use as aquaculture seed stock; therefore, the occurrence of drifting temperate algae in early spring is important for local fisheries. These results suggest that the further extinction of temperate Sargassum spp. may have negative impacts on the pelagic ecosystem and associated regional fisheries.

The 2014-2015 Warming Anomaly in the Southern California Current System: Glider Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Zaba, K. D.; Rudnick, D. L.

2016-02-01

During 2014-2015, basin-wide patterns of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies affected surface waters throughout the North Pacific Ocean. We present regional physical and biological effects of the warming, as observed by our autonomous underwater gliders in the southern California Current System (SCCS). Established in 2006, the California Glider Network provides sustained subsurface observations for monitoring the coastal effects of large-scale climate variability. Along repeat sections that extend to 350-500 km in offshore distance and 500 m in depth, Spray gliders have continuously occupied CalCOFI lines 66.7, 80, and 90 for nearly nine years. Following a sawtooth trajectory, the gliders complete each dive in approximately 3 hours and over 3 km. Measured variables include pressure, temperature, salinity, chlorophyll fluorescence, and velocity. For each of the three lines, a comprehensive climatology has been constructed from the multiyear timeseries. The ongoing surface-intensified warming anomaly, which began locally in early 2014 and persists through present, is unprecedented in the glider climatology. Reaching up to 5°C, positive temperature anomalies have been generally confined to the upper 50 m and persistent for over 20 months. The timing of the warming was in phase along each glider line but out of phase with equatorial SST anomalies, suggesting a decoupling of tropical and mid-latitude dynamics. Concurrent physical oceanographic anomalies included a depressed thermocline and high stratification. An induced biological response was apparent in the deepening of the subsurface chlorophyll fluorescence maximum. Ancillary atmospheric data from the NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) model indicate that a combination of surface forcing anomalies, namely high downward heat flux and weak wind stress magnitude, caused the unusual warm, downwelling conditions. With a strong El Niño event in the forecast for winter 2015-2016, our sustained glider network will

Coarsening of AA6013-T6 Precipitates During Sheet Warm Forming Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Di Ciano, M.; DiCecco, S.; Esmaeili, S.; Wells, M. A.; Worswick, M. J.

2018-03-01

The use of warm forming for AA6xxx-T6 sheet is of interest to improve its formability; however, the effect warm forming may have on the coarsening of precipitates and the mechanical strength of these sheets has not been well studied. In this research, the coarsening behavior of AA6013-T6 precipitates has been explored, in the temperature range of 200-300 °C, and time of 30 s up to 50 h. Additionally, the effect of warm deformation on coarsening behavior was explored using: (1) simulated warm forming tests in a Gleeble thermo-mechanical simulator and (2) bi-axial warm deformation tests. Using a strong obstacle model to describe the yield strength (YS) evolution of the AA6013-T6 material, and a Lifshitz, Slyozov, and Wagner (LSW) particle coarsening law to describe the change in precipitate size with time, the coarsening kinetics were modeled for this alloy. The coarsening kinetics in the range of 220-300 °C followed a trend similar to that previously found for AA6111 for the 180-220 °C range. There was strong evidence that coarsening kinetics were not altered due to warm deformation above 220 °C. For warm forming between 200 and 220 °C, the YS of the AA6013-T6 material increased slightly, which could be attributed to strain hardening during warm deformation. Finally, a non-isothermal coarsening model was used to assess the potential reduction in the YS of AA6013-T6 for practical processing conditions related to auto-body manufacturing. The model calculations showed that 90% of the original AA6013-T6 YS could be maintained, for warm forming temperatures up to 280 °C, if the heating schedule used to get the part to the warm forming temperature was limited to 1 min.

New evidence on the sequence of deglacial warming in the tropical Indian Ocean

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Naidu, P.D.; Govil, P.

. Quat. Sci., vol.25(7); 2010; 1138-1143 A New Evidence on Sequence of Deglacial Warming in the Tropical Indian Ocean P. Divakar Naidu 1 , Pawan Govil 1,2 1 National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula 403 004, Goa, India 2 National Centre... relative timing of abrupt climate warming in the tropics versus the high latitudes should be known. Therefore, the present communication is aimed to address the start of deglaciation in the Indian Ocean based on sea surface temperature (SST) derived from...

Antarctica: Cooling or Warming?

Science.gov (United States)

Bunde, Armin; Ludescher, Josef; Franzke, Christian

2013-04-01

We consider the 14 longest instrumental monthly mean temperature records from the Antarctica and analyse their correlation properties by wavelet and detrended fluctuation analysis. We show that the stations in the western and the eastern part of the Antarctica show significant long-term memory governed by Hurst exponents close to 0.8 and 0.65, respectively. In contrast, the temperature records at the inner part of the continent (South Pole and Vostok), resemble white noise. We use linear regression to estimate the respective temperature differences in the records per decade (i) for the annual data, (ii) for the summer and (iii) for the winter season. Using a recent approach by Lennartz and Bunde [1] we estimate the respective probabilities that these temperature differences can be exceeded naturally without inferring an external (anthropogenic) trend. We find that the warming in the western part of the continent and the cooling at the South Pole is due to a gradually changes in the cold extremes. For the winter months, both cooling and warming are well outside the 95 percent confidence interval, pointing to an anthropogenic origin. In the eastern Antarctica, the temperature increases and decreases are modest and well within the 95 percent confidence interval. [1] S. Lennartz and A. Bunde, Phys. Rev. E 84, 021129 (2011)

Characteristics of permanent deformation rate of warm mix asphalt with additives variation (BNA-R and zeolite)

Science.gov (United States)

Wahjuningsih, Nurul; Hadiwardoyo, Sigit Pranowo; Sumabrata, R. Jachrizal

2017-06-01

Permanent deformation is one of the criteria of failure on asphalt concrete mixture. The nature of the bitumen melt at high temperatures, this condition causes the asphalt concrete mixture tends to soften due to an increase in temperature of the road surface. The increase in surface temperature and the load wheel that has repeated itself on the same trajectory causes deformation groove has formed. Conditions rutting due to permanent deformation has resulted in inconvenience to the passengers and can lead to high costs of road maintenance. On the road planning process required a prediction of the rate of the permanent deformation of asphalt concrete mixtures. It is important to know early on the road surface damage due to vehicle load and surface temperature during service life. Asphalt has been mixed with the additive BNA-R and Zeolite intended to make variations in the characteristics of bitumen in this study. This variation is further combined with variations in the composition of aggregate in order to obtain a combination of asphalt-aggregate mixture. This mixture using warm mix, and to determine the permanent deformation of asphalt mix with material combinations was performed through the wheel tracking test machine with 3,780 cycles or 7,560 tracks for 3 hours. Another analysis to determine the characteristics of asphalt concrete mixtures have also been carried out changes in the surface temperature at the time of the test track. From the results of the test track to nearly 8 thousand passes has seen permanent deformation characteristics of asphalt concrete mixture with a variation of the characteristics of bitumen and aggregate variation. Groove of deformation due to a wheel load from the initial until the last passes shows that there are influence of compaction temperature on the variation of bitumen and aggregate composition to the relationship of permanent deformation of the wheel groove, especially on the road surface temperature changes.

Experimental Studies of the Transport Parameters of Warm Dense Matter

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chouffani, Khalid [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States)

2014-12-01

There is a need to establish fundamental properties of matter and energy under extreme physical conditions. Although high energy density physics (HEDP) research spans a wide range of plasma conditions, there is one unifying regime that is of particular importance and complexity: that of warm dense matter, the transitional state between solid state condensed matter and energetic plasmas. Most laboratory experimental conditions, including inertial confinement implosion, fall into this regime. Because all aspects of laboratory-created high-energy-density plasmas transition through the warm dense matter regime, understanding the fundamental properties to determine how matter and energy interact in this regime is an important aspect of major research efforts in HEDP. Improved understanding of warm dense matter would have significant and wide-ranging impact on HEDP science, from helping to explain wire initiation studies on the Sandia Z machine to increasing the predictive power of inertial confinement fusion modeling. The central goal or objective of our proposed research is to experimentally determine the electrical resistivity, temperature, density, and average ionization state of a variety of materials in the warm dense matter regime, without the use of theoretical calculations. Since the lack of an accurate energy of state (EOS) model is primarily due to the lack of experimental data, we propose an experimental study of the transport coefficients of warm dense matter.

Peranan Environmental Accounting Terhadap Global Warming

OpenAIRE

Martusa, Riki

2009-01-01

This article explores about is global warming. The distortion of nature causes global warming. Industrial sector is one of global warming incurred. Some nations create a group to cope this matter. They try to reduce carbon emission as one of global warming causes by controlling industrial carbon emission through financial reporting. This article explores normatively roles of environmental accounting in cope with global warming.  

Prediction on global warming-up. Chikyu ondanka wo yosokusuru

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Noda, A [Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan)

1993-05-01

This paper introduces models to predict global warming-up caused by greenhouse effect of the earth and increase in greenhouse effect gases, and the prediction results. As a result of CO2 doubling experiments using three-dimensional climate models in predicting the global warming-up, a model that predicted a sharp rise in annual average ground temperatures on the entire earth showed a larger increase in precipitation. According to the result of the CO2 doubling experiments using atmosphere-ocean coupling models, it was learned that the temperature rises higher in high latitude regions rather than rising uniformly over the earth on the whole. The fact that the temperature rise when CO2 has been doubled in a CO2 gradually increasing experiment is smaller than in the doubling experiment can be understood as a delaying effect of oceans generated from their thermal inertia. The former experiment showed a remarkable non-symmetry between the Southern and Northern hemispheres, reflecting the effect of the great oceanic circulation. Increase in cloud amount has an effect of either cooling or warming the earth, but the cooling effect surpasses the warming effect reportedly. Sulfuric acid aerosol in the troposphere is thought to influence the process of solar radiation transmitting through the atmosphere and have an effect to cool down the ground surface. 12 refs., 6 figs.

Response of organic matter quality in permafrost soils to warming

Science.gov (United States)

Plaza, C.; Pegoraro, E.; Schuur, E.

2016-12-01

Global warming is predicted to thaw large quantities of the perennially frozen organic matter stored in northern permafrost soils. Upon thaw, this organic matter will be exposed to lateral export to water bodies and to microbial decomposition, which may exacerbate climate change by releasing significant amounts of greenhouse gases. To gain an insight into these processes, we investigated how the quality of permafrost soil organic matter responded to five years of warming. In particular, we sampled control and experimentally warmed soils in 2009 and 2013 from an experiment established in 2008 in a moist acidic tundra ecosystem in Healy, Alaska. We examined surface organic (0 to 15 cm), deep organic (15 to 35 cm), and mineral soil layers (35 to 55 cm) separately by means of stable isotope analysis (δ13C and δ15N) and solid-state 13C nuclear magnetic resonance. Compared to the control, the experimental warming did not affect the isotopic and molecular composition of soil organic matter across the depth profile. However, we did find significant changes with time. In particular, in the surface organic layer, δ13C decreased and alkyl/O-alkyl ratio increased from 2009 to 2013, which indicated variations in soil organic sources (e.g., changes in vegetation) and accelerated decomposition. In the deep organic layer, we found a slight increase in δ15N with time. In the mineral layer, δ13C values decreased slightly, whereas alkyl C/O-alkyl ratio increased, suggesting a preferential loss of relatively more degraded organic matter fractions probably by lateral transport by water flowing through the soil. Acknowledgements: This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 654132. Web site: http://vulcan.comule.com

Temperature adaptation of bacterial communities in experimentally warmed forest soils.

Science.gov (United States)

Rousk, Johannes; Frey, Serita D; Bååth, Erland

2012-10-01

A detailed understanding of the influence of temperature on soil microbial activity is critical to predict future atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and feedbacks to anthropogenic warming. We investigated soils exposed to 3-4 years of continuous 5 °C-warming in a field experiment in a temperate forest. We found that an index for the temperature adaptation of the microbial community, T min for bacterial growth, increased by 0.19 °C per 1 °C rise in temperature, showing a community shift towards one adapted to higher temperature with a higher temperature sensitivity (Q 10(5-15 °C) increased by 0.08 units per 1 °C). Using continuously measured temperature data from the field experiment we modelled in situ bacterial growth. Assuming that warming did not affect resource availability, bacterial growth was modelled to become 60% higher in warmed compared to the control plots, with the effect of temperature adaptation of the community only having a small effect on overall bacterial growth (bacterial growth, most likely due to substrate depletion because of the initially higher growth in warmed plots. When this was factored in, the result was similar rates of modelled in situ bacterial growth in warmed and control plots after 3 years, despite the temperature difference. We conclude that although temperature adaptation for bacterial growth to higher temperatures was detectable, its influence on annual bacterial growth was minor, and overshadowed by the direct temperature effect on growth rates. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Surface and bulk MHD instabilities due to insulator coating imperfections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu Zengyu; Reed, C.B.; Pan Chuanjie

2002-01-01

Experiments were performed using copper electrodes inserted into the wall of a perfectly insulated duct to simulate insulator coating flaking or cracking. The results show that surface electric potential U and MHD pressure drop ΔP exhibit a non-monotonic behavior with increasing V 0 , while the magnetic field B 0 is held constant. Additional experiments were also performed keeping all external experimental conditions fixed while measuring the change of U, V 0 , B 0 , and ΔP with increasing time. It was found that while all external experimental conditions were kept constant, the system changed by itself and U, V 0 and ΔP exhibited a non-monotonic behavior with increasing time. The results seem contrary to the law of ΔP∝V 0 B 0 n , but are consistent with conservation of energy, which implies that the change is due to some inherent feature of the system, or possibly instabilities, which may occur due to insulator coating imperfections

Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System Model

Science.gov (United States)

Koseki, Shunya; Keenlyside, Noel; Demissie, Teferi; Toniazzo, Thomas; Counillon, Francois; Bethke, Ingo; Ilicak, Mehmet; Shen, Mao-Lin

2018-06-01

We have investigated the causes of the sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) of the southeastern Atlantic Ocean simulated by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Similar to other coupled-models, NorESM has a warm SST bias in the ABFZ of up to 8 °C in the annual mean. Our analysis of NorESM reveals that a cyclonic surface wind bias over the ABFZ drives a locally excessively strong southward (0.05 m/s (relative to observation)) Angola Current displacing the ABFZ southward. A series of uncoupled stand-alone atmosphere and ocean model simulations are performed to investigate the cause of the coupled model bias. The stand-alone atmosphere model driven with observed SST exhibits a similar cyclonic surface circulation bias; while the stand-alone ocean model forced with the reanalysis data produces a warm SST in the ABFZ with a magnitude approximately half of that in the coupled NorESM simulation. An additional uncoupled sensitivity experiment shows that the atmospheric model's local negative surface wind curl generates anomalously strong Angola Current at the ocean surface. Consequently, this contributes to the warm SST bias in the ABFZ by 2 °C (compared to the reanalysis forced simulation). There is no evidence that local air-sea feedbacks among wind stress curl, SST, and sea level pressure (SLP) affect the ABFZ SST bias. Turbulent surface heat flux differences between coupled and uncoupled experiments explain the remaining 2 °C warm SST bias in NorESM. Ocean circulation, upwelling and turbulent heat flux errors all modulate the intensity and the seasonality of the ABFZ errors.

Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System Model

Science.gov (United States)

Koseki, Shunya; Keenlyside, Noel; Demissie, Teferi; Toniazzo, Thomas; Counillon, Francois; Bethke, Ingo; Ilicak, Mehmet; Shen, Mao-Lin

2017-09-01

We have investigated the causes of the sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) of the southeastern Atlantic Ocean simulated by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Similar to other coupled-models, NorESM has a warm SST bias in the ABFZ of up to 8 °C in the annual mean. Our analysis of NorESM reveals that a cyclonic surface wind bias over the ABFZ drives a locally excessively strong southward (0.05 m/s (relative to observation)) Angola Current displacing the ABFZ southward. A series of uncoupled stand-alone atmosphere and ocean model simulations are performed to investigate the cause of the coupled model bias. The stand-alone atmosphere model driven with observed SST exhibits a similar cyclonic surface circulation bias; while the stand-alone ocean model forced with the reanalysis data produces a warm SST in the ABFZ with a magnitude approximately half of that in the coupled NorESM simulation. An additional uncoupled sensitivity experiment shows that the atmospheric model's local negative surface wind curl generates anomalously strong Angola Current at the ocean surface. Consequently, this contributes to the warm SST bias in the ABFZ by 2 °C (compared to the reanalysis forced simulation). There is no evidence that local air-sea feedbacks among wind stress curl, SST, and sea level pressure (SLP) affect the ABFZ SST bias. Turbulent surface heat flux differences between coupled and uncoupled experiments explain the remaining 2 °C warm SST bias in NorESM. Ocean circulation, upwelling and turbulent heat flux errors all modulate the intensity and the seasonality of the ABFZ errors.

Conservation Planning for Coral Reefs Accounting for Climate Warming Disturbances.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafael A Magris

Full Text Available Incorporating warming disturbances into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs is fundamental to developing appropriate conservation actions that confer coral reef resilience. We propose an MPA design approach that includes spatially- and temporally-varying sea-surface temperature (SST data, integrating both observed (1985-2009 and projected (2010-2099 time-series. We derived indices of acute (time under reduced ecosystem function following short-term events and chronic thermal stress (rate of warming and combined them to delineate thermal-stress regimes. Coral reefs located on the Brazilian coast were used as a case study because they are considered a conservation priority in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. We show that all coral reef areas in Brazil have experienced and are projected to continue to experience chronic warming, while acute events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. We formulated quantitative conservation objectives for regimes of thermal stress. Based on these objectives, we then evaluated if/how they are achieved in existing Brazilian MPAs and identified priority areas where additional protection would reinforce resilience. Our results show that, although the current system of MPAs incorporates locations within some of our thermal-stress regimes, historical and future thermal refugia along the central coast are completely unprotected. Our approach is applicable to other marine ecosystems and adds to previous marine planning for climate change in two ways: (i by demonstrating how to spatially configure MPAs that meet conservation objectives for warming disturbance using spatially- and temporally-explicit data; and (ii by strategically allocating different forms of spatial management (MPA types intended to mitigate warming impacts and also enhance future resistance to climate warming.

A new type of surface acoustic waves in solids due to nonlinear elasticity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mozhaev, V.G.

1988-12-01

It is shown that in nonlinear elastic semi-infinite medium possessing a property of self focusing of shear waves, besides bulk non-linear shear waves, new surface acoustic waves exist, localization of which near the boundary is entirely due to nonlinear effects. (author). 8 refs

Artificial Warming of Arctic Meadow under Pollution Stress: Experimental design

Science.gov (United States)

Moni, Christophe; Silvennoinen, Hanna; Fjelldal, Erling; Brenden, Marius; Kimball, Bruce; Rasse, Daniel

2014-05-01

split plots (diameter: 3.65 m & surface area: 10.5 m2) composed of one half amended with biochar and one control half not amended were prepared. Five of these plots are equipped with a warming system, while the other five were equipped with dummies. Each warmed plot is collocated with a control plot within one block. While split plots are all oriented in the same direction the position of blocks is randomized to eliminate the effect of the spatial variability. Biochar was incorporated in the first 20 cm of the soil with a rototiller. Warming system is provided by hexagonal arrays of infrared heaters. The temperature of the plots is monitored with infrared cameras. The 3oC increase of temperature is obtained by dynamically monitoring the temperature difference between warmed and control plots within blocks via improved software. Each plot is further equipped with a soil temperature and moisture sensor.

Statistical analysis of global surface air temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schmith, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to physically-based models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting...... of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and surface air temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea...... level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s is exceptional in the sense that sea level and warming deviates from the expected...

GLOBAL WARMING. Recent hiatus caused by decadal shift in Indo-Pacific heating.

Science.gov (United States)

Nieves, Veronica; Willis, Josh K; Patzert, William C

2015-07-31

Recent modeling studies have proposed different scenarios to explain the slowdown in surface temperature warming in the most recent decade. Some of these studies seem to support the idea of internal variability and/or rearrangement of heat between the surface and the ocean interior. Others suggest that radiative forcing might also play a role. Our examination of observational data over the past two decades shows some significant differences when compared to model results from reanalyses and provides the most definitive explanation of how the heat was redistributed. We find that cooling in the top 100-meter layer of the Pacific Ocean was mainly compensated for by warming in the 100- to 300-meter layer of the Indian and Pacific Oceans in the past decade since 2003. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

'Home made' model to study the greenhouse effect and global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Onorato, P.; Mascheretti, P.; DeAmbrosis, A.

2011-03-01

In this paper a simplified two-parameter model of the greenhouse effect on the Earth is developed, starting from the well known two-layer model. It allows both the analysis of the temperatures of the inner planets, by focusing on the role of the greenhouse effect, and a comparison between the temperatures the planets should have in the absence of greenhouse effect and their actual ones. It may also be used to predict the average temperature of the Earth surface in the future, depending on the variations of the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities. This model can promote an elementary understanding of global warming since it allows a simple formalization of the energy balance for the Earth in the stationary condition, in the presence of greenhouse gases. For these reasons it can be introduced in courses for undergraduate physics students and for teacher preparation.

'Home made' model to study the greenhouse effect and global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Onorato, P; Mascheretti, P; DeAmbrosis, A

2011-01-01

In this paper a simplified two-parameter model of the greenhouse effect on the Earth is developed, starting from the well known two-layer model. It allows both the analysis of the temperatures of the inner planets, by focusing on the role of the greenhouse effect, and a comparison between the temperatures the planets should have in the absence of greenhouse effect and their actual ones. It may also be used to predict the average temperature of the Earth surface in the future, depending on the variations of the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities. This model can promote an elementary understanding of global warming since it allows a simple formalization of the energy balance for the Earth in the stationary condition, in the presence of greenhouse gases. For these reasons it can be introduced in courses for undergraduate physics students and for teacher preparation.

Warm Dense Matter: An Overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kalantar, D H; Lee, R W; Molitoris, J D

2004-01-01

meeting is that LLNL is presently well poised to play a leading role in understanding warm dense matter as the foundation we have built in experiment/theory is strong and due to our strong connections to next generation experimental facilities. The most important recommendation is that for the SSMP to benefit the most, LLNL needs to incorporate present research activities into a consolidated programmatic effort and move forward on the experimental fronts, especially those planned for next generation facilities

Simulative testing of friction in warm/hot forging

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henningsen, Poul; Lindegren, Maria

The objective of sub-task 3.2 is to determine the friction values for different work piece materials, tool materials and lubricants as a function of the main process parameters under conditions reflecting those which are present in typical warm/hot forming operations i.e. surface expansion, work...... piece and tool temperature. Based on this experimental work establish mathematical formulations of friction as a function of the basic parameters....

SOFIA Observations of S106: Dynamics of the Warm Gas

Science.gov (United States)

Simon, R.; Schneider, N.; Stutzki, J.; Gusten, R.; Graf, U. U.; Hartogh, P.; Guan, X.; Staguhn, J. G.; Benford, D. J.

2012-01-01

Context The H II region/PDR/molecular cloud complex S106 is excited by a single O-star. The full extent of the warm and dense gas close to the star has not been mapped in spectrally resolved high-J CO or [C II] lines, so the kinematics of the warm. partially ionized gas, are unknown. Whether the prominent dark lane bisecting the hourglass-shaped nebula is due solely to the shadow cast by a small disk around the exciting star or also to extinction in high column foreground gas was an open question until now. Aims. To disentangle the morphology and kinematics of warm neutral and ionized gas close to the star, study their relation to the bulk of the molecular gas. and to investigate the nature of the dark lane. Methods. We use the heterodyne receiver GREAT on board SOFIA to observe velocity resolved spectral lines of [C II] and CO 11 yields 10 in comparison with so far unpublished submm continuum data at 350 micron (8HARC-Il) and complementary molecular line data. Results. The high angular and spectral resolution observations show a very complex morphology and kinematics of the inner S106 region, with many different components at different excitation conditions contributing to the observed emission. The [C II] lines are found to be bright and very broad. tracing high velocity gas close to the interface of molecular cloud and H II region. CO 11 yields 10 emission is more confined.. both spatially and in velocity, to the immediate surroundings of S 106 IR showing the presence of warm, high density (clumpy) gas. Our high angular resolution submm continuum observations rule out the scenario where the dark lane separating the two lobes is due solely to the shadow cast by a small disk close to the star. The lane is clearly seen also as warm, high column density gas at the boundary of the molecular cloud and H II region.

A WARM MOLECULAR HYDROGEN TAIL DUE TO RAM-PRESSURE STRIPPING OF A CLUSTER GALAXY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sivanandam, Suresh; Rieke, Marcia J.; Rieke, George H.

2010-01-01

We have discovered a remarkable warm (130-160 K) molecular hydrogen tail with a H 2 mass of approximately 4 x 10 7 M sun extending 20 kpc from a cluster spiral galaxy, ESO 137-001, in Abell 3627. At least half of this gas is lost permanently to the intracluster medium, as the tail extends beyond the tidal radius of the galaxy. We also detect a hot (400-550 K) component in the tail that is approximately 1% of the mass. The large H 2 line to IR continuum luminosity ratio in the tail indicates that star formation is not a major excitation source and that the gas is possibly shock-heated. This discovery confirms that the galaxy is currently undergoing ram-pressure stripping, as also indicated by its previously discovered X-ray and Hα tails. We estimate that the galaxy is losing its warm H 2 gas at a rate of ∼2-3 M sun yr -1 . The true mass-loss rate is likely higher if we account for cold molecular gas and atomic gas. We predict that the galaxy will lose most of its gas in a single pass through the core and place a strong upper limit on the ram-pressure timescale of 1 Gyr. We also study the star-forming properties of the galaxy and its tail. We identify most of the previously discovered external Hα sources within the tail in our 8 μm data but not in our 3.6 μm data; IRS spectroscopy of the region containing these Hα sources also reveals aromatic features typically associated with star formation. From the positions of these H II regions, it appears that star formation is not occurring throughout the molecular hydrogen tail but only immediately downstream of the galaxy. Some of these H II regions lie outside the tidal radius of the galaxy, indicating that ram-pressure stripping can be a source of intracluster stars.

Snow sublimation in mountain environments and its sensitivity to forest disturbance and climate warming

Science.gov (United States)

Sexstone, Graham A.; Clow, David W.; Fassnacht, Steven R.; Liston, Glen E.; Hiemstra, Christopher A.; Knowles, John F.; Penn, Colin A.

2018-01-01

Snow sublimation is an important component of the snow mass balance, but the spatial and temporal variability of this process is not well understood in mountain environments. This study combines a process‐based snow model (SnowModel) with eddy covariance (EC) measurements to investigate (1) the spatio‐temporal variability of simulated snow sublimation with respect to station observations, (2) the contribution of snow sublimation to the ablation of the snowpack, and (3) the sensitivity and response of snow sublimation to bark beetle‐induced forest mortality and climate warming across the north‐central Colorado Rocky Mountains. EC‐based observations of snow sublimation compared well with simulated snow sublimation at stations dominated by surface and canopy sublimation, but blowing snow sublimation in alpine areas was not well captured by the EC instrumentation. Water balance calculations provided an important validation of simulated sublimation at the watershed scale. Simulated snow sublimation across the study area was equivalent to 28% of winter precipitation on average, and the highest relative snow sublimation fluxes occurred during the lowest snow years. Snow sublimation from forested areas accounted for the majority of sublimation fluxes, highlighting the importance of canopy and sub‐canopy surface sublimation in this region. Simulations incorporating the effects of tree mortality due to bark‐beetle disturbance resulted in a 4% reduction in snow sublimation from forested areas. Snow sublimation rates corresponding to climate warming simulations remained unchanged or slightly increased, but total sublimation losses decreased by up to 6% because of a reduction in snow covered area and duration.

Insolation driven biomagnetic response to the Holocene Warm Period in semi-arid East Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Suzhen; Deng, Chenglong; Xiao, Jule; Li, Jinhua; Paterson, Greig A.; Chang, Liao; Yi, Liang; Qin, Huafeng; Pan, Yongxin; Zhu, Rixiang

2015-01-01

The Holocene Warm Period (HWP) provides valuable insights into the climate system and biotic responses to environmental variability and thus serves as an excellent analogue for future global climate changes. Here we document, for the first time, that warm and wet HWP conditions were highly favourable for magnetofossil proliferation in the semi-arid Asian interior. The pronounced increase of magnetofossil concentrations at ~9.8 ka and decrease at ~5.9 ka in Dali Lake coincided respectively with the onset and termination of the HWP, and are respectively linked to increased nutrient supply due to postglacial warming and poor nutrition due to drying at ~6 ka in the Asian interior. The two-stage transition at ~7.7 ka correlates well with increased organic carbon in middle HWP and suggests that improved climate conditions, leading to high quality nutrient influx, fostered magnetofossil proliferation. Our findings represent an excellent lake record in which magnetofossil abundance is, through nutrient availability, controlled by insolation driven climate changes.

Military Implications of Global Warming.

Science.gov (United States)

1999-05-20

U.S. environmental issues also have important global implications. This paper analyzes current U.S. Policy as it pertains to global warming and climate...for military involvement to reduce global warming . Global warming and other environmental issues are important to the U.S. military. As the United

The core of the global warming problem: energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu, E.

2005-01-01

From the thermodynamic point of view, the global warming problem is an 'energy balance' problem. The heat (energy) accumulation in the earth and its atmosphere is the cause of global warming. This accumulation is mainly due to the imbalance of (solar) energy reaching and the energy leaving the earth, caused by 'greenhouse effect' in which the CO 2 and other greenhouse gases play a critical role; so that balance of the energy entering and leaving the earth should be the key to solve the problem. Currently in the battle of tackling the global warming, we mainly focus on the development of CO 2 -related measures, i.e., emission reduction, CO 2 sequestration, and CO 2 recycle technologies. It is right in technical aspect, because they are attempting to thin the CO 2 'blanket' around the earth. However, 'Energy' that is the core of the problem has been overlooked, at least in management/policy aspect. This paper is proposing an 'Energy Credit' i.e., the energy measure concept as an alternative to the 'CO 2 credit' that is currently in place in the proposed emission trading scheme. The proposed energy credit concept has the advantages such as covering broad activities related to the global warming and not just direct emissions. Three examples are given in the paper to demonstrate the concept of the energy measure and its advantages over the CO 2 credit concept. (Author)

Warm measurements of CBA superconducting magnets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Engelmann, R.; Herrera, J.; Kahn, S.; Kirk, H.; Willen, E.; Yamin, P.

1983-01-01

We present results on magnetic field measurements of CBA dipole magnets in the warm (normal conductor) and cryogenic (superconducting) states. We apply two methods for the warm measurements, a dc and ac method. We find a good correlation between warm and cryogenic measurements which lends itself to a reliable diagnosis of magnet field errors using warm measurements early in the magnet assembly process. We further find good agreement between the two warm measurement methods, both done at low currents

Response of water temperature to surface wave effects in the Baltic Sea: simulations with the coupled NEMO-WAM model

Science.gov (United States)

Alari, Victor; Staneva, Joanna; Breivik, Øyvind; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Mogensen, Kristian; Janssen, Peter

2016-04-01

The effects of wind waves on the Baltic Sea water temperature has been studied by coupling the hydrodynamical model NEMO with the wave model WAM. The wave forcing terms that have been taken into consideration are: Stokes-Coriolis force, seastate dependent energy flux and sea-state dependent momentum flux. The combined role of these processes as well as their individual contributions on simulated temperature is analysed. The results indicate a pronounced effect of waves on surface temperature, on the distribution of vertical temperature and on upwellinǵs. In northern parts of the Baltic Sea a warming of the surface layer occurs in the wave included simulations. This in turn reduces the cold bias between simulated and measured data. The warming is primarily caused by sea-state dependent energy flux. Wave induced cooling is mostly observed in near coastal areas and is mainly due to Stokes-Coriolis forcing. The latter triggers effect of intensifying upwellings near the coasts, depending on the direction of the wind. The effect of sea-state dependent momentum flux is predominantly to warm the surface layer. During the summer the wave induced water temperature changes were up to 1 °C.

Increased dose near the skin due to electromagnetic surface beacon transponder.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahn, Kang-Hyun; Manger, Ryan; Halpern, Howard J; Aydogan, Bulent

2015-05-08

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the increased dose near the skin from an electromagnetic surface beacon transponder, which is used for localization and tracking organ motion. The bolus effect due to the copper coil surface beacon was evaluated with radiographic film measurements and Monte Carlo simulations. Various beam incidence angles were evaluated for both 6 MV and 18 MV experimentally. We performed simulations using a general-purpose Monte Carlo code MCNPX (Monte Carlo N-Particle) to supplement the experimental data. We modeled the surface beacon geometry using the actual mass of the glass vial and copper coil placed in its L-shaped polyethylene terephthalate tubing casing. Film dosimetry measured factors of 2.2 and 3.0 enhancement in the surface dose for normally incident 6 MV and 18 MV beams, respectively. Although surface dose further increased with incidence angle, the relative contribution from the bolus effect was reduced at the oblique incidence. The enhancement factors were 1.5 and 1.8 for 6 MV and 18 MV, respectively, at an incidence angle of 60°. Monte Carlo simulation confirmed the experimental results and indicated that the epidermal skin dose can reach approximately 50% of the dose at dmax at normal incidence. The overall effect could be acceptable considering the skin dose enhancement is confined to a small area (~ 1 cm2), and can be further reduced by using an opposite beam technique. Further clinical studies are justified in order to study the dosimetric benefit versus possible cosmetic effects of the surface beacon. One such clinical situation would be intact breast radiation therapy, especially large-breasted women.

An assessment of global warming stress on Caribbean coral reef ecosystems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Atwood, D.K.; Hendec, J.C.; Mendez, A. (NOAA, Miami, FL (USA). Atlantic Oceanography and Meteorology Laboratory)

1992-07-01

There is evidence that stress on coral reef ecosystems in the Caribbean region is increasing. Recently numerous authors have stated that the major stress results from 'abnormally high' seasonal sea surface temperatures (SST) and have implicated global warming as a cause, stating that recent episodes of coral bleaching result therefrom. However, an analysis of available SST data sets shows no discernible warming trend that could cause an increase in coral bleaching. Given the lack of long-term records synoptic with observations of coral ecosystem health, there is insufficient evidence available to label temperatures observed in coincidence with recent regional bleaching events as 'abnormally' high.

An assessment of global warming stress on Caribbean coral reef ecosystems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Atwood, D K; Hendec, J C; Mendez, A [NOAA, Miami, FL (USA). Atlantic Oceanography and Meteorology Laboratory

1992-07-01

There is evidence that stress on coral reef ecosystems in the Caribbean region is increasing. Recently numerous authors have stated that the major stress results from 'abnormally high' seasonal sea surface temperatures (SST) and have implicated global warming as a cause, stating that recent episodes of coral bleaching result therefrom. However, an analysis of available SST data sets shows no discernible warming trend that could cause an increase in coral bleaching. Given the lack of long-term records synoptic with observations of coral ecosystem health, there is insufficient evidence available to label temperatures observed in coincidence with recent regional bleaching events as 'abnormally' high.

Sensitivity of surface temperature to radiative forcing by contrail cirrus in a radiative-mixing model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

U. Schumann

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Earth's surface temperature sensitivity to radiative forcing (RF by contrail cirrus and the related RF efficacy relative to CO2 are investigated in a one-dimensional idealized model of the atmosphere. The model includes energy transport by shortwave (SW and longwave (LW radiation and by mixing in an otherwise fixed reference atmosphere (no other feedbacks. Mixing includes convective adjustment and turbulent diffusion, where the latter is related to the vertical component of mixing by large-scale eddies. The conceptual study shows that the surface temperature sensitivity to given contrail RF depends strongly on the timescales of energy transport by mixing and radiation. The timescales are derived for steady layered heating (ghost forcing and for a transient contrail cirrus case. The radiative timescales are shortest at the surface and shorter in the troposphere than in the mid-stratosphere. Without mixing, a large part of the energy induced into the upper troposphere by radiation due to contrails or similar disturbances gets lost to space before it can contribute to surface warming. Because of the different radiative forcing at the surface and at top of atmosphere (TOA and different radiative heating rate profiles in the troposphere, the local surface temperature sensitivity to stratosphere-adjusted RF is larger for SW than for LW contrail forcing. Without mixing, the surface energy budget is more important for surface warming than the TOA budget. Hence, surface warming by contrails is smaller than suggested by the net RF at TOA. For zero mixing, cooling by contrails cannot be excluded. This may in part explain low efficacy values for contrails found in previous global circulation model studies. Possible implications of this study are discussed. Since the results of this study are model dependent, they should be tested with a comprehensive climate model in the future.

The effects of global warming on allergic diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, A W; Hon, K L; Leung, T F; Ho, M H; Rosa Duque, J S; Lee, T H

2018-05-29

Global warming is a public health emergency. Substantial scientific evidence indicates an unequivocal rising trend in global surface temperature that has caused higher atmospheric levels of moisture retention leading to more frequent extreme weather conditions, shrinking ice volume, and gradually rising sea levels. The concomitant rise in the prevalence of allergic diseases is closely related to these environmental changes because warm and moist environments favour the proliferation of common allergens such as pollens, dust mites, molds, and fungi. Global warming also stresses ecosystems, further accelerating critical biodiversity loss. Excessive carbon dioxide, together with the warming of seawater, promotes ocean acidification and oxygen depletion. This results in a progressive decline of phytoplankton and fish growth that in turn promotes the formation of larger oceanic dead zones, disrupting the food chain and biodiversity. Poor environmental biodiversity and a reduction in the microbiome spectrum are risk factors for allergic diseases in human populations. While climate change and the existence of an allergy epidemic are closely linked according to robust international research, efforts to mitigate these have encountered strong resistance because of vested economic and political concerns in different countries. International collaboration to establish legally binding regulations should be mandatory for forest protection and energy saving. Lifestyle and behavioural changes should also be advocated at the individual level by focusing on low carbon living; avoiding food wastage; and implementing the 4Rs: reduce, reuse, recycle, and replace principles. These lifestyle measures are entirely consistent with the current recommendations for allergy prevention. Efforts to mitigate climate change, preserve biodiversity, and prevent chronic diseases are interdependent disciplines.

Does exclusion of protest zeros and warm-glow bidders cause selection bias in Contingent Valuation?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grammatikopoulou, Ioanna; Olsen, Søren Bøye; Pouta, Eija

A great issue of concern in valuation studies is whether respondents provide trustworthy and reliable answers conditional on the perceived information. Respondent may report either a higher than the true Willingness-To-Pay (WTP) due to warm glow or embedding effects or zero WTP which is lower than...... the true WTP due to protest behavior. We conduct a contingent valuation study to estimate the WTP for conserving a Natura 2000 wetland area in Greece. We find that 54% of the positive bidders exert warm glow motivations while 29% of all responses can be classified as protest zero bids. We employ three....... Our findings show that removal of warm glow positive bidders does not distort the WTP estimate in any significant way. However, using the same approach for protest zero bidders, we find strong evidence of selection bias associated with removal of protest zero responses. Specifically, WTP estimates...

Striking Seasonality in the Secular Warming of the Northern Continents: Structure and Mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.

2017-12-01

The linear trend in twentieth-century surface air temperature (SAT)—a key secular warming signal— exhibits striking seasonal variations over Northern Hemisphere continents; SAT trends are pronounced in winter and spring but notably weaker in summer and fall. The SAT trends in historical twentieth-century climate simulations informing the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's Fifth Assessment show varied (and often unrealistic) strength and structure, and markedly weaker seasonal variation. The large intra-ensemble spread of winter SAT trends in some historical simulations was surprising, especially in the context of century-long linear trends, with implications for the detection of the secular warming signal. The striking seasonality of observed secular warming over northern continents warrants an explanation and the representation of related processes in climate models. Here, the seasonality of SAT trends over North America is shown to result from land surface-hydroclimate interactions and, to an extent, also from the secular change in low-level atmospheric circulation and related thermal advection. It is argued that the winter dormancy and summer vigor of the hydrologic cycle over middle- to high-latitude continents permit different responses to the additional incident radiative energy from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The seasonal cycle of climate, despite its monotony, provides an expanded phase space for the exposition of the dynamical and thermodynamical processes generating secular warming, and an exceptional cost-effective opportunity for benchmarking climate projection models.

TOPEX/El Nino Watch - Warm Water Pool is Thinning, Feb, 5, 1998

Science.gov (United States)

1998-01-01

This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Feb. 5, 1998 and sea surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The area and volume of the El Nino warm water pool that is affecting global weather patterns remains extremely large, but the pool has thinned along the equator and near the coast of South America. This 'thinning' means that the warm water is not as deep as it was a few months ago. Oceanographers indicate this is a classic pattern, typical of a mature El Nino condition that they would expect to see during the ocean's gradual transition back to normal sea level. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level. The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using satellite imagery, buoy and ship data, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmosphere system, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (NOAA), has continued to issue an advisory indicating the so-called El Nino weather conditions that have impacted much of the United States and the world are expected to remain through

The relationship of telluric currents to the corrosion of warm arctic pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sackinger, W.M.

1991-01-01

Warm pipelines may be elevated above ice-rich permafrost, but buried in unfrozen ground or in ice-containing permafrost which is regarded as mechanically thaw-stable. In norther regions, the concentration of ionospheric electrical currents causes not only aurora borealis but also a time-variable magnetic field at the earth's surface, and the induction of electrical currents in the soil and in pipelines. This paper presents a model for electrical current flow in a typical warm pipeline segment, including both buried and elevated sections, soil resistances, corrosion protection sacrificial anodes, and regions of damaged pipeline coatings

Discharge, water temperature, and water quality of Warm Mineral Springs, Sarasota County, Florida: A retrospective analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Metz, Patricia A.

2016-09-27

Warm Mineral Springs, located in southern Sarasota County, Florida, is a warm, highly mineralized, inland spring. Since 1946, a bathing spa has been in operation at the spring, attracting vacationers and health enthusiasts. During the winter months, the warm water attracts manatees to the adjoining spring run and provides vital habitat for these mammals. Well-preserved late Pleistocene to early Holocene-age human and animal bones, artifacts, and plant remains have been found in and around the spring, and indicate the surrounding sinkhole formed more than 12,000 years ago. The spring is a multiuse resource of hydrologic importance, ecological and archeological significance, and economic value to the community.The pool of Warm Mineral Springs has a circular shape that reflects its origin as a sinkhole. The pool measures about 240 feet in diameter at the surface and has a maximum depth of about 205 feet. The sinkhole developed in the sand, clay, and dolostone of the Arcadia Formation of the Miocene-age to Oligocene-age Hawthorn Group. Underlying the Hawthorn Group are Oligocene-age to Eocene-age limestones and dolostones, including the Suwannee Limestone, Ocala Limestone, and Avon Park Formation. Mineralized groundwater, under artesian pressure in the underlying aquifers, fills the remnant sink, and the overflow discharges into Warm Mineral Springs Creek, to Salt Creek, and subsequently into the Myakka River. Aquifers described in the vicinity of Warm Mineral Springs include the surficial aquifer system, the intermediate aquifer system within the Hawthorn Group, and the Upper Floridan aquifer in the Suwannee Limestone, Ocala Limestone, and Avon Park Formation. The Hawthorn Group acts as an upper confining unit of the Upper Floridan aquifer.Groundwater flow paths are inferred from the configuration of the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer for September 2010. Groundwater flow models indicate the downward flow of water into the Upper Floridan aquifer

Effect of global warming in Thailand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suphat Vongvisessomjai

2010-08-01

Full Text Available The earth absorbs much radiation from the sun to warm the atmosphere, the land, and the oceans. This energy is reradiatedback into space. In the past, the thermal budget of the earth is more or less balanced, with radiation from the sun onpar with thermal radiation from the earth. With increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, some of the thermal radiationis absorbed by these gases resulting in an increase of global mean surface temperature, melting of polar ices and thuscontributing to a rising of sea level. However, sea-level changes depend upon four main processes: 1 Glacio-eustasy, 2Emergence/subsidence of land, 3 Man-made activities, and 4 Ocean-atmosphere effects. The assessment report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1990, which was based on past data in Europe and the USA, including theNorth Atlantic Ocean, published a mean temperature of 14°C and an actual increase of 1°C in the last century, plus an increaseof CO2 from 370 ppmv to 550 ppmv, and a three-fold temperature increase of 3°C in this century. All these changes are projectinga sea level rise (SLR of 31-110 cm per century on global scale, which was in fact applicable to the North Atlantic. Theassessment report of the IPCC Working Group I (1996 has realized that differential SLR occurs due to different geographicalconditions. It identified ten regions on earth and compared the actual climate change to what it was postulated to be, andcame up with SLR of 15-95 cm per century. The assessment report of the IPCC Working Group II (2001 employed improveddata obtained from tide gauges and satellite images as well as mathematical model results with the most convincing evidencein the North Atlantic, and it concluded an SLR of 9-88 cm per century. But it had, however, noted a lack of data in the Pacificand Indian Ocean. The assessment report of the IPCC Summary for Policy Makers (SPM, 2007 that included six differentarctic and antarctic climate science

Global warming : a guide to the science

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soon, W.; Baliunas, S.L.; Robinson, A.B.; Robinson, Z.W.

2001-01-01

This guide dispels the popular hypothesis that increases in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere resulting from increased industrial activity have caused global warming. The report suggests that there is no evidence of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming and that temperature changes over the last 100 years has been due mostly to natural phenomena. The global temperature has increased by about 0.5 to 0.6 degrees C in the past 100 years, and this, before most of the greenhouse gases were added to the air by human activities such as burning of fossil fuels. The initial major rise in temperature was in 1940, before the rise in carbon dioxide levels, therefore, it was suggested that this warming must have been natural in origin. Computer based simulations of the climate system forecast disastrous rises in global temperature. But it was argued that current climate models are not accurate in forecasting future climate change because it is not possible to isolate the effect of an increased concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide on climate because about 5 million different variables have to be considered with all their important impacts and interactions. Science indicates that at most, a little warming will occur and certainly better plant grown which should be of great benefit to mankind. It was concluded that the human condition can be improved through unconstrained access to energy, but use of energy may also produce local unwanted pollutants as a by product. The sources of true environmental pollution can be mitigated based on rational considerations of the risks of pollutants and benefits of energy use. refs., figs

An investigation of the effects from a urethral warming system on temperature distributions during cryoablation treatment of the prostate: a phantom study.

Science.gov (United States)

Favazza, C P; Gorny, K R; King, D M; Rossman, P J; Felmlee, J P; Woodrum, D A; Mynderse, L A

2014-08-01

Introduction of urethral warmers to aid cryosurgery in the prostate has significantly reduced the incidence of urethral sloughing; however, the incidence rate still remains as high as 15%. Furthermore, urethral warmers have been associated with an increase of cancer recurrence rates. Here, we report results from our phantom-based investigation to determine the impact of a urethral warmer on temperature distributions around cryoneedles during cryosurgery. Cryoablation treatments were simulated in a tissue mimicking phantom containing a urethral warming catheter. Four different configurations of cryoneedles relative to urethral warming catheter were investigated. For each configuration, the freeze-thaw cycles were repeated with and without the urethral warming system activated. Temperature histories were recorded at various pre-arranged positions relative to the cryoneedles and urethral warming catheter. In all configurations, the urethral warming system was effective at maintaining sub-lethal temperatures at the simulated surface of the urethra. The warmer action, however, was additionally demonstrated to potentially negatively impact treatment lethality in the target zone by elevating minimal temperatures to sub-lethal levels. In all needle configurations, rates of freezing and thawing were not significantly affected by the use of the urethral warmer. The results indicate that the urethral warming system can protect urethral tissue during cryoablation therapy with cryoneedles placed as close as 5mm to the surface of the urethra. Using a urethral warming system and placing multiple cryoneedles within 1cm of each other delivers lethal cooling at least 5mm from the urethral surface while sparing urethral tissue. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Role of Frozen Soil in Groundwater Discharge Predictions for Warming Alpine Watersheds

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Sarah G.; Ge, Shemin; Voss, Clifford I.; Molotch, Noah P.

2018-03-01

Climate warming may alter the quantity and timing of groundwater discharge to streams in high alpine watersheds due to changes in the timing of the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface and snowmelt recharge. It is imperative to understand the effects of seasonal freezing and recharge on groundwater discharge to streams in warming alpine watersheds as streamflow originating from these watersheds is a critical water resource for downstream users. This study evaluates how climate warming may alter groundwater discharge due to changes in seasonally frozen ground and snowmelt using a 2-D coupled flow and heat transport model with freeze and thaw capabilities for variably saturated media. The model is applied to a representative snowmelt-dominated watershed in the Rocky Mountains of central Colorado, USA, with snowmelt time series reconstructed from a 12 year data set of hydrometeorological records and satellite-derived snow covered area. Model analyses indicate that the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface controls groundwater discharge to streams, while snowmelt timing controls groundwater discharge to hillslope faces. Climate warming causes changes to subsurface ice content and duration, rerouting groundwater flow paths but not altering the total magnitude of future groundwater discharge outside of the bounds of hydrologic parameter uncertainties. These findings suggest that frozen soil routines play an important role for predicting the future location of groundwater discharge in watersheds underlain by seasonally frozen ground.

The role of frozen soil in groundwater discharge predictions for warming alpine watersheds

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Sarah G.; Ge, Shemin; Voss, Clifford I.; Molotch, Noah P.

2018-01-01

Climate warming may alter the quantity and timing of groundwater discharge to streams in high alpine watersheds due to changes in the timing of the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface and snowmelt recharge. It is imperative to understand the effects of seasonal freezing and recharge on groundwater discharge to streams in warming alpine watersheds as streamflow originating from these watersheds is a critical water resource for downstream users. This study evaluates how climate warming may alter groundwater discharge due to changes in seasonally frozen ground and snowmelt using a 2‐D coupled flow and heat transport model with freeze and thaw capabilities for variably saturated media. The model is applied to a representative snowmelt‐dominated watershed in the Rocky Mountains of central Colorado, USA, with snowmelt time series reconstructed from a 12 year data set of hydrometeorological records and satellite‐derived snow covered area. Model analyses indicate that the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface controls groundwater discharge to streams, while snowmelt timing controls groundwater discharge to hillslope faces. Climate warming causes changes to subsurface ice content and duration, rerouting groundwater flow paths but not altering the total magnitude of future groundwater discharge outside of the bounds of hydrologic parameter uncertainties. These findings suggest that frozen soil routines play an important role for predicting the future location of groundwater discharge in watersheds underlain by seasonally frozen ground.

Can biomass responses to warming at plant to ecosystem levels be predicted by leaf-level responses?

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, J.; Shao, J.; Zhou, X.; Yan, W.; Lu, M.

2015-12-01

Global warming has the profound impacts on terrestrial C processes from leaf to ecosystem scales, potentially feeding back to climate dynamics. Although numerous studies had investigated the effects of warming on C processes from leaf to plant and ecosystem levels, how leaf-level responses to warming scale up to biomass responses at plant, population, and community levels are largely unknown. In this study, we compiled a dataset from 468 papers at 300 experimental sites and synthesized the warming effects on leaf-level parameters, and plant, population and ecosystem biomass. Our results showed that responses of plant biomass to warming mainly resulted from the changed leaf area rather than the altered photosynthetic capacity. The response of ecosystem biomass to warming was weaker than those of leaf area and plant biomass. However, the scaling functions from responses of leaf area to plant biomass to warming were different in diverse forest types, but functions were similar in non-forested biomes. In addition, it is challenging to scale the biomass responses from plant up to ecosystem. These results indicated that leaf area might be the appropriate index for plant biomass response to warming, and the interspecific competition might hamper the scaling of the warming effects on plant and ecosystem levels, suggesting that the acclimation capacity of plant community should be incorporated into land surface models to improve the prediction of climate-C cycle feedback.

Significant cooling effect on the surface due to soot particles over Brahmaputra River Valley region, India: An impact on regional climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tiwari, S., E-mail: smbtiwari@tropmet.res.in [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, New Delhi Branch, New Delhi 110060 (India); Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry, Stockholm University, Stockholm SE-10691 (Sweden); Kumar, R. [Research Application Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Tunved, P. [Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry, Stockholm University, Stockholm SE-10691 (Sweden); Singh, S. [CSIR, Central Institute of Mining & Fuel Research, Dhanbad, Jharkhand 826001 (India); Panicker, A.S. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune 411008 (India)

2016-08-15

Black carbon (BC) is an important atmospheric aerosol constituent that affects the climate by absorbing (directly) the sunlight and modifying cloud characteristics (indirectly). Here, we present first time yearlong measurements of BC and carbon monoxide (CO) from an urban location of Guwahati located in the Brahmaputra River valley (BRV) in the northeast region of India from 1st July 2013 to 30th June 2014. Daily BC concentrations varied within the range of 2.86 to 11.56 μg m{sup −3} with an annual average of 7.17 ± 1.89 μg m{sup −3}{sub ,} while, CO varied from 0.19 to 1.20 ppm with a mean value of 0.51 ± 0.19 ppm during the study period. The concentrations of BC (8.37 μg m{sup −3}) and CO (0.67 ppm) were ~ 39% and ~ 55% higher during the dry months (October to March) than the wet months (April to September) suggesting that seasonal changes in meteorology and emission sources play an important role in controlling these species. The seasonal ΔBC/ΔCO ratios were highest (lowest) in the pre-monsoon (winter) 18.1 ± 1.4 μg m{sup −3} ppmv{sup −1} (12.6 ± 2.2 μg m{sup −3} ppmv{sup −1}) which indicate the combustion of biofuel/biomass as well as direct emissions from fossil fuel during the pre-monsoon season. The annual BC emission was estimated to be 2.72 Gg in and around Guwahati which is about 44% lower than the mega city ‘Delhi’ (4.86 Gg). During the study period, the annual mean radiative forcing (RF) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) for clear skies of BC was + 9.5 Wm{sup −2}, however, the RF value at the surface (SFC) was − 21.1 Wm{sup −2} which indicates the net warming and cooling effects, respectively. The highest RF at SFC was in the month of April (− 30 Wm{sup −2}) which is coincident with the highest BC mass level. The BC atmospheric radiative forcing (ARF) was + 30.16 (annual mean) Wm{sup −2} varying from + 23.1 to + 43.8 Wm{sup −2}. The annual mean atmospheric heating rate (AHR) due to the BC aerosols was 0.86 K

On the impact of the resolution on the surface and subsurface Eastern Tropical Atlantic warm bias

Science.gov (United States)

Martín-Rey, Marta; Lazar, Alban

2016-04-01

The tropical variability has a great importance for the climate of adjacent areas. Its sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) affect in particular the Brazilian Nordeste and the Sahelian region, as well as the tropical Pacific or the Euro-Atlantic sector. Nevertheless, the state-of the art climate models exhibits very large systematic errors in reproducing the seasonal cycle and inter-annual variability in the equatorial and coastal Africa upwelling zones (up to several °C for SST). Theses biases exist already, in smaller proportions though, in forced ocean models (several 1/10th of °C), and affect not only the mixed layer but also the whole thermocline. Here, we present an analysis of the impact of horizontal and vertical resolution changes on these biases. Three different DRAKKAR NEMO OGCM simulations have been analysed, associated to the same forcing set (DFS4.4) with different grid resolutions: "REF" for reference (1/4°, 46 vertical levels), "HH" with a finer horizontal grid (1/12°, 46 v.l.) and "HV" with a finer vertical grid (1/4°, 75 v.l.). At the surface, a more realistic seasonal SST cycle is produced in HH in the three upwellings, where the warm bias decreases (by 10% - 20%) during boreal spring and summer. A notable result is that increasing vertical resolution in HV causes a shift (in advance) of the upwelling SST seasonal cycles. In order to better understand these results, we estimate the three upwelling subsurface temperature errors, using various in-situ datasets, and provide thus a three-dimensional view of the biases.

G-warm inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Herrera, Ramón

2017-05-01

A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G(phi,X)=g(phi) X. As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition RR+3gHdot phi. Additionally, we obtain constraints on the parameters during the evolution of G-warm inflation, assuming the condition for warm inflation in which the temperature T>H, the conditions or the weak and strong regimes, together with the consistency relation r=r(ns) from Planck data.

The indirect global warming potential and global temperature change potential due to methane oxidation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boucher, Olivier; Collins, Bill; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Shine, Keith P

2009-01-01

Methane is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere next to carbon dioxide. Its global warming potential (GWP) for a time horizon of 100 years is 25, which makes it an attractive target for climate mitigation policies. Although the methane GWP traditionally includes the methane indirect effects on the concentrations of ozone and stratospheric water vapour, it does not take into account the production of carbon dioxide from methane oxidation. We argue here that this CO 2 -induced effect should be included for fossil sources of methane, which results in slightly larger GWP values for all time horizons. If the global temperature change potential is used as an alternative climate metric, then the impact of the CO 2 -induced effect is proportionally much larger. We also discuss what the correction term should be for methane from anthropogenic biogenic sources.

The use of biofuels to mitigate global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ackerson, M.D.; Clausen, E.C.; Gaddy, J.L.

1993-01-01

This planet is habitable because of the warming effect because trace gases in the atmosphere that absorb and trap longer IR wavelengths reradiated from the Earth's surface. These trace greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), water vapor, methane (CH 4 ) halocarbons, nitrogen oxides (N 2 O), and ozone (O 3 ). CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere are rising at the rate of about 0.5%/year (Smith, 1988). As the levels of greenhouse gases increase, more solar radiation is trapped and the Earth's temperature increases. Measurements show that the average global temperature has risen only about 1 degrees F, but the problem appears to be accelerating. The 5 warmest years have occurred in the last decade, with 1987 the warmest. Although the consequences are not yet clear, many scientists predict radial climatic changes, with melting of the polar ice caps and the creation of vast deserts. It is recognized that the increase in greenhouse gases is largely due to fossil fuel use, as well as changing land use. While deforestation and land exploitation have been responsible for high CO 2 emissions in the past, these sources will be comparatively small in the future, since the rate of deforestation will decline. Hence, future trends in the atmospheric CO 2 concentration will depend primarily upon fossil energy usage. Except for a short period following the 1973 oil embargo, world CO 2 emissions from combustion of fossil fuels have increased about 3%/year during the last 40 years, to about 24 billion ton in 1988. The US consumes one third of the world's energy, and contributes about one fourth of the CO 2 emissions, or 6 billion ton/year. Clearly the energy policies of the US will have a significant influence on potential global warming

Impact and prevention on global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Heon Ryeol

2003-11-01

This book deals with impact and prevention on global warming with eight chapters, which introduce the change after the earth was born and natural environment, how is global atmospheric environment under the control of radiant energy? What does global warming look with the earth history like? What's the status of global warming so far? How does climate change happen? What is the impact by global warming and climate change and for preservation of global environment of 21 century with consumption of energy, measure and prospect on global warming. It has reference, index and three appendixes.

Long range global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rolle, K.C.; Pulkrabek, W.W.; Fiedler, R.A.

1995-01-01

This paper explores one of the causes of global warming that is often overlooked, the direct heating of the environment by engineering systems. Most research and studies of global warming concentrate on the modification that is occurring to atmospheric air as a result of pollution gases being added by various systems; i.e., refrigerants, nitrogen oxides, ozone, hydrocarbons, halon, and others. This modification affects the thermal radiation balance between earth, sun and space, resulting in a decrease of radiation outflow and a slow rise in the earth's steady state temperature. For this reason the solution to the problem is perceived as one of cleaning up the processes and effluents that are discharged into the environment. In this paper arguments are presented that suggest, that there is a far more serious cause for global warming that will manifest itself in the next two or three centuries; direct heating from the exponential growth of energy usage by humankind. Because this is a minor contributor to the global warming problem at present, it is overlooked or ignored. Energy use from the combustion of fuels and from the output of nuclear reactions eventually is manifest as warming of the surroundings. Thus, as energy is used at an ever increasing rate the consequent global warming also increases at an ever increasing rate. Eventually this rate will become equal to a few percent of solar radiation. When this happens the earth's temperature will have risen by several degrees with catastrophic results. The trends in world energy use are reviewed and some mathematical models are presented to suggest future scenarios. These models can be used to predict when the global warming problem will become undeniably apparent, when it will become critical, and when it will become catastrophic

Global warming on trial

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Broeker, W.S.

1992-01-01

Jim Hansen, a climatologist at NASA's Goddard Space Institute, is convinced that the earth's temperature is rising and places the blame on the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Unconvinced, John Sununu, former White House chief of staff, doubts that the warming will be great enough to produce serious threat and fears that measures to reduce the emissions would throw a wrench into the gears that drive the Unites States' troubled economy. During his three years at the White House, Sununu's view prevailed, and although his role in the debate has diminished, others continue to cast doubt on the reality of global warming. A new lobbying group called the Climate Council has been created to do just this. Burning fossil fuels is not the only problem; a fifth of emissions of carbon dioxide now come from clearing and burning forests. Scientists are also tracking a host of other greenhouse gases that emanate from a variety of human activities; the warming effect of methane, chlorofluorocarbons and nitrous oxide combined equals that of carbon dioxide. Although the current warming from these gases may be difficult to detect against the background noise of natural climate variation, most climatologists are certain that as the gases continue to accumulate, increases in the earth's temperature will become evident even to skeptics. If the reality of global warming were put on trial, each side would have trouble making its case. Jim Hansen's side could not prove beyond a reasonable doubt that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have warmed the planet. But neither could John Sununu's side prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the warming expected from greenhouse gases has not occurred. To see why each side would have difficulty proving its case, this article reviews the arguments that might be presented in such a hearing

Teetering Stars: Resonant Excitation of Stellar Obliquities by Hot and Warm Jupiters with External Companions

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Kassandra; Lai, Dong

2018-04-01

Stellar spin-orbit misalignments (obliquities) in hot Jupiter systems have been extensively probed in recent years thanks to Rossiter-McLaughlin observations. Such obliquities may reveal clues about hot Jupiter dynamical and migration histories. Common explanations for generating stellar obliquities include high-eccentricity migration, or primordial disk misalignment. This talk investigates another mechanism for producing stellar spin-orbit misalignments in systems hosting a close-in giant planet with an external, inclined planetary companion. Spin-orbit misalignment may be excited due to a secular resonance, occurring when the precession rate of the stellar spin axis (due to the inner orbit) becomes comparable to the precession rate of the inner orbital axis (due to the outer companion). Due to the spin-down of the host star via magnetic braking, this resonance may be achieved at some point during the star's main sequence lifetime for a wide range of giant planet masses and orbital architectures. We focus on both hot Jupiters (with orbital periods less than ten days) and warm Jupiters (with orbital periods around tens of days), and identify the outer perburber properties needed to generate substantial obliquities via resonant excitation, in terms of mass, separation, and inclination. For hot Jupiters, the stellar spin axis is strongly coupled to the orbital axis, and resonant excitation of obliquity requires a close perturber, located within 1-2 AU. For warm Jupiters, the spin and orbital axes are more weakly coupled, and the resonance may be achieved for more distant perturbers (at several to tens of AU). Resonant excitation of the stellar obliquity is accompanied by a decrease in the planets' mutual orbital inclination, and can thus erase high mutual inclinations in two-planet systems. Since many warm Jupiters are known to have outer planetary companions at several AU or beyond, stellar obliquities in warm Jupiter systems may be common, regardless of the

Man -made greenhouse gases trigger unified force to start global warming impacts referred to as climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karishnan, K.J.; Kalam, A.

2011-01-01

Global warming problems due to man-made greenhouse gases (GHGs), appear to be a serious concern and threat to the globe. CO/sub 2/, O/sub 3, NOx and HFC's are the main greenhouse gases and CO/sub 2/ is one of the main cause of global warming. CO/sub 2/ is emitted from burning fossil fuels to produce electricity from power plants and burning of gasoline in vehicles and airplanes. Global greenhouse gases and its sources in regions are discussed in this paper. This paper initially discusses the CO/sub 2/ emissions and the recycle of CO/sub 2/ in biodiesel. This paper mainly focuses on 'Unified Force'. The increase of H/sub 2/O in the sea due to warming of the globe triggers the 'Unified Force' or 'Self-Compressive Surrounding Pressure Force' which is proportional to the H/sub 2/O level in the sea to start global warming impacts referred to as climate change. This paper also points out the climate change and the ten surprising results of global warming. Finally, this paper suggests switching from fossil fuel technology to green energy technologies like biodiesel which recycles CO/sub 2/ emissions and also Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Technologies which eradicates global warming impacts. The benefits of switching from fossil fuel to biodiesel and Hydrogen Energy utilization includes reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and pollution, economic independence by having distributed production and burning of biodiesel does not add extra CO/sub 2/ to the air that contributes global warming impacts. (author)

Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; DiNezio, Pedro N; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara

2017-06-06

In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015-16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes.

Surface structural damage study in cortical bone due to medical drilling.

Science.gov (United States)

Tavera R, Cesar G; De la Torre-I, Manuel H; Flores-M, Jorge M; Hernandez M, Ma Del Socorro; Mendoza-Santoyo, Fernando; Briones-R, Manuel de J; Sanchez-P, Jorge

2017-05-01

A bone's fracture could be produced by an excessive, repetitive, or sudden load. A regular medical practice to heal it is to fix it in two possible ways: external immobilization, using a ferule, or an internal fixation, using a prosthetic device commonly attached to the bone by means of surgical screws. The bone's volume loss due to this drilling modifies its structure either in the presence or absence of a fracture. To observe the bone's surface behavior caused by the drilling effects, a digital holographic interferometer is used to analyze the displacement surface's variations in nonfractured post-mortem porcine femoral bones. Several nondrilled post-mortem bones are compressed and compared to a set of post-mortem bones with a different number of cortical drillings. During each compression test, a series of digital interferometric holograms were recorded using a high-speed CMOS camera. The results are presented as pseudo 3D mesh displacement maps for comparisons in the physiological range of load (30 and 50 lbs) and beyond (100, 200, and 400 lbs). The high resolution of the optical phase gives a better understanding about the bone's microstructural modifications. Finally, a relationship between compression load and bone volume loss due to the drilling was observed. The results prove that digital holographic interferometry is a viable technique to study the conditions that avoid the surgical screw from loosening in medical procedures of this kind.

What if mankind warms the earth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kellogg, W.W.

1977-01-01

There are a variety of human activities that are being pursued on such a large scale that they may influence regional and global climate. Virtually all of these activities, including the addition of carbon dioxide and particles to the atmosphere, are expected on theoretical grounds to cause an increase in mean surface temperature in the decades ahead, and by 2000 AD the total warming effect will probably be larger than any of the natural climate fluctuations during the past 1,000 years or more. It is therefore pertinent ot inquire what a warmer earth might be like; and to obtain a first rough answer we turn to our mathematical models of the atmosphere, and also to the conditions that have been deduced for the period about 4,000 to 8,000 years ago when the earth was apparently several degress warmer the now. Atan now. At that time some areas that are now subtropical deserts received more rainfall, and there were other areas in the middle latitudes that were drier. There are several important implications for society if mankind does succeed in warming the earth - and a number of still unanswered questions as well. (orig.) [de

Bulk Densities of Binary Asteroids from the Warm Spitzer NEO Survey

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kistler, John; Trilling, D. E.; Mueller, M.; Hora, J. L.; Harris, A. W.; Bhattacharya, B.; Bottke, W. F.; Chesley, S.; Emery, J. P.; Fazo, G.; Mainzer, A.; Penprase, B.; Smith, H. A.; Spahr, T. B.; Stansberry, J. A.; Thomas, C. A.

2010-01-01

The Warm Spitzer NEO survey, ExploreNEOs, will observe approximately 700 Near Earth Asteroids. Several of these objects are known to be binary asteroid systems. Binary systems are interesting due to the unique opportunity they present for determining the masses and densities of their constituent

Experimental winter warming modifies thermal performance and primes acorn ants for warm weather

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

MacLean, Heidi J.; Penick, Clint A.; Dunn, Robert R.

2017-01-01

The frequency of warm winter days is increasing under global climate change, but how organisms respond to warmer winters is not well understood. Most studies focus on growing season responses to warming. Locomotor performance is often highly sensitive to temperature, and can determine fitness...... outcomes through a variety of mechanisms including resource acquisition and predator escape. As a consequence, locomotor performance, and its impacts on fitness, may be strongly affected by winter warming in winter-active species. Here we use the acorn ant, Temnothorax curvispinosus, to explore how thermal...... performance (temperature-driven plasticity) in running speed is influenced by experimental winter warming of 3–5 °C above ambient in a field setting. We used running speed as a measure of performance as it is a common locomotor trait that influences acquisition of nest sites and food in acorn ants...

An accurate analytical solution of a zero-dimensional greenhouse model for global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foong, S K

2006-01-01

In introducing the complex subject of global warming, books and papers usually use the zero-dimensional greenhouse model. When the ratio of the infrared radiation energy of the Earth's surface that is lost to outer space to the non-reflected average solar radiation energy is small, the model admits an accurate approximate analytical solution-the resulting energy balance equation of the model is a quartic equation that can be solved analytically-and thus provides an alternative solution and instructional strategy. A search through the literature fails to find an analytical solution, suggesting that the solution may be new. In this paper, we review the model, derive the approximation and obtain its solution. The dependence of the temperature of the surface of the Earth and the temperature of the atmosphere on seven parameters is made explicit. A simple and convenient formula for global warming (or cooling) in terms of the percentage change of the parameters is derived. The dependence of the surface temperature on the parameters is illustrated by several representative graphs

Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

Science.gov (United States)

Carlson, Henrik; Caballero, Rodrigo

2017-08-01

Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2-thin clouds or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has ˜ 11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

Non-climatic thermal adaptation: implications for species' responses to climate warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, David J; McQuaid, Christopher D; Williams, Gray A

2010-10-23

There is considerable interest in understanding how ectothermic animals may physiologically and behaviourally buffer the effects of climate warming. Much less consideration is being given to how organisms might adapt to non-climatic heat sources in ways that could confound predictions for responses of species and communities to climate warming. Although adaptation to non-climatic heat sources (solar and geothermal) seems likely in some marine species, climate warming predictions for marine ectotherms are largely based on adaptation to climatically relevant heat sources (air or surface sea water temperature). Here, we show that non-climatic solar heating underlies thermal resistance adaptation in a rocky-eulittoral-fringe snail. Comparisons of the maximum temperatures of the air, the snail's body and the rock substratum with solar irradiance and physiological performance show that the highest body temperature is primarily controlled by solar heating and re-radiation, and that the snail's upper lethal temperature exceeds the highest climatically relevant regional air temperature by approximately 22°C. Non-climatic thermal adaptation probably features widely among marine and terrestrial ectotherms and because it could enable species to tolerate climatic rises in air temperature, it deserves more consideration in general and for inclusion into climate warming models.

Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century

Science.gov (United States)

Knutson, Thomas R.; Zhang, Rong; Horowitz, Larry W.

2016-11-01

Global mean temperature over 1998 to 2015 increased at a slower rate (0.1 K decade-1) compared with the ensemble mean (forced) warming rate projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models (0.2 K decade-1). Here we investigate the prospects for this slower rate to persist for a decade or more. The slower rate could persist if the transient climate response is overestimated by CMIP5 models by a factor of two, as suggested by recent low-end estimates. Alternatively, using CMIP5 models' warming rate, the slower rate could still persist due to strong multidecadal internal variability cooling. Combining the CMIP5 ensemble warming rate with internal variability episodes from a single climate model--having the strongest multidecadal variability among CMIP5 models--we estimate that the warming slowdown (2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11% and 6%, respectively.