Meier, G.A.; Brown, Jesslyn F.
Remote sensing of land-surface phenology is an important method for studying the patterns of plant and animal growth cycles. Phenological events are sensitive to climate variation; therefore phenology data provide important baseline information documenting trends in ecology and detecting the impacts of climate change on multiple scales. The USGS Remote sensing of land surface phenology program produces annually, nine phenology indicator variables at 250 m and 1,000 m resolution for the contiguous U.S. The 12 year archive is available at http://phenology.cr.usgs.gov/index.php.
Zhang, Yue; Li, Lin; Wang, Hongbin; Zhang, Yao; Wang, Naijia; Chen, Junpeng
As an important crop growing area, Northeast China (NEC) plays a vital role in China's food security, which has been severely affected by climate change in recent years. Vegetation phenology in this region is sensitive to climate change, and currently, the relationship between the phenology of NEC and climate change remains unclear. In this study, we used a satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to obtain the temporal patterns of the land surface phenology in NEC from 2000 to 2015 and validated the results using ground phenology observations. We then explored the relationships among land surface phenology, temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours for relevant periods. Our results showed that the NEC experienced great phenological changes in terms of spatial heterogeneity during 2000-2015. The spatial patterns of land surface phenology mainly changed with altitude and land cover type. In most regions of NEC, the start date of land surface phenology had advanced by approximately 1.0 days year -1 , and the length of land surface phenology had been prolonged by approximately 1.0 days year -1 except for the needle-leaf and cropland areas, due to the warm conditions. We found that a distinct inter-annual variation in land surface phenology related to climate variables, even if some areas presented non-significant trends. Land surface phenology was coupled with climate variables and distinct responses at different combinations of temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, altitude, and anthropogenic influence. These findings suggest that remote sensing and our phenology extracting methods hold great potential for helping to understand how land surface phenology is sensitive to global climate change.
Wang, Huanjiong; Rutishauser, This; Tao, Zexing; Zhong, Shuying; Ge, Quansheng; Dai, Junhu
The impact of spring temperature forcing on the timing of leaf unfolding of plants (temperature sensitivity, S T ) is one important indicator of how and to what degree plant species track climate change. Fu et al. (Nature 526:104-107, 2015) found that S T has significantly decreased from the 1980-1994 to the 1999-2013 period for seven mid-latitude tree species in Europe. However, long-term changes in S T over the past 60 years are still not clear. Here, using in situ observations of leaf unfolding for seven dominant European tree species, we analyze the temporal change in S T over decadal time scales extending the data series back to 1951. Our results demonstrate that S T shows no statistically significant change within shifting 30-year windows from 1951 to 2013 and remains stable between 1951-1980 and 1984-2013 (3.6 versus 3.7 days °C -1 ). This result suggests that the significant decrease in S T over the past 33 years could not be sustained when examining the trends of phenological responses in the long run. Therefore, we could not conclude that tree spring phenology advances will slow down in the future, and the S T changes in warming scenarios are still uncertain.
Full Text Available Land surface phenology from time series of satellite data are expected to contribute to improve the representation of vegetation phenology in earth system models. We characterized the baseline phenology of the vegetation at the global scale from GEOCLIM-LAI, a global climatology of leaf area index (LAI derived from 1-km SPOT VEGETATION time series for 1999-2010. The calibration with ground measurements showed that the start and end of season were best identified using respectively 30% and 40% threshold of LAI amplitude values. The satellite-derived phenology was spatially consistent with the global distributions of climatic drivers and biome land cover. The accuracy of the derived phenological metrics, evaluated using available ground observations for birch forests in Europe, cherry in Asia and lilac shrubs in North America showed an overall root mean square error lower than 19 days for the start, end and length of season, and good agreement between the latitudinal gradients of VEGETATION LAI phenology and ground data.
A great number of land surface phenoloy (LSP) data have been produced from various coarse resolution satellite datasets and detection algorithms across regional and global scales. Unlike field- measured phenological events which are quantitatively defined with clear biophysical meaning, current LSP ...
Brian E. Bunker
Full Text Available Unsupervised classification or clustering of multi-decadal land surface phenology provides a spatio-temporal synopsis of natural and agricultural vegetation response to environmental variability and anthropogenic activities. Notwithstanding the detailed temporal information available in calibrated bi-monthly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI and comparable time series, typical pre-classification workflows average a pixel’s bi-monthly index within the larger multi-decadal time series. While this process is one practical way to reduce the dimensionality of time series with many hundreds of image epochs, it effectively dampens temporal variation from both intra and inter-annual observations related to land surface phenology. Through a novel application of object-based segmentation aimed at spatial (not temporal dimensionality reduction, all 294 image epochs from a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS bi-monthly NDVI time series covering the northern Fertile Crescent were retained (in homogenous landscape units as unsupervised classification inputs. Given the inherent challenges of in situ or manual image interpretation of land surface phenology classes, a cluster validation approach based on transformed divergence enabled comparison between traditional and novel techniques. Improved intra-annual contrast was clearly manifest in rain-fed agriculture and inter-annual trajectories showed increased cluster cohesion, reducing the overall number of classes identified in the Fertile Crescent study area from 24 to 10. Given careful segmentation parameters, this spatial dimensionality reduction technique augments the value of unsupervised learning to generate homogeneous land surface phenology units. By combining recent scalable computational approaches to image segmentation, future work can pursue new global land surface phenology products based on the high temporal resolution signatures of vegetation index time series.
Land surface phenology (LSP) provides bio-indication of ongoing climate change. It uses space-borne greenness proxies to monitor plant phenology at the landscape level from the regional to global scale. However, several unconsidered methodological and observational -related limitations may lead to misinterpretation of the satellite-derived signals. For instance, changes in species composition within a pixel could result in a change in the time series of the greenness proxy, due to the distinct phenology of the plant species involved. The change in the signal would then be misinterpreted as a phenological change while it is actually related to changes in species composition within the pixel. Other limitations include the selection of the smoothing technique and the method used to extract the LSP metrics. These not only may affect the timing of the LSP metrics but also the sign of the observed LSP change. Another and much less known limitation is related to the mixed signal from multi-canopy layers. Satellites may detect changes that corresponds to the understorey layer in complex vertical vegetation systems while the 'real' contribution of this layer (in terms of ecosystem functioning and dynamics) might be small compared to the undetected overstorey layer in cases of a late overstorey development. Here, some of the LSP basics are reviewed with emphasis on these (and other) potential sources of misinterpretation. Several aids to overcome these limitations, which include suggestions for multi methods analysis and the integration of information from satellite and ground-based sensors are provided alongside some prospective future LSP research directions. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Garonna, Irene; de Jong, Rogier; Stöckli, Reto; Schmid, Bernhard; Schenkel, David; Schimel, David; Schaepman, Michael E.
Land surface phenology (LSP), the study of seasonal dynamics of vegetated land surfaces from remote sensing, is a key indicator of global change, that both responds to and influences weather and climate. The effects of climatic changes on LSP depend on the relative importance of climatic constraints in specific regions—which are not well understood at global scale. Understanding the climatic constraints that underlie LSP is crucial for explaining climate change effects on global vegetation phenology. We used a combination of modelled and remotely-sensed vegetation activity records to quantify the interplay of three climatic constraints on land surface phenology (namely minimum temperature, moisture availability, and photoperiod), as well as the dynamic nature of these constraints. Our study examined trends and the relative importance of the three constrains at the start and the end of the growing season over eight global environmental zones, for the past three decades. Our analysis revealed widespread shifts in the relative importance of climatic constraints in the temperate and boreal biomes during the 1982-2011 period. These changes in the relative importance of the three climatic constraints, which ranged up to 8% since 1982 levels, varied with latitude and between start and end of the growing season. We found a reduced influence of minimum temperature on start and end of season in all environmental zones considered, with a biome-dependent effect on moisture and photoperiod constraints. For the end of season, we report that the influence of moisture has on average increased for both the temperate and boreal biomes over 8.99 million km2. A shifting relative importance of climatic constraints on LSP has implications both for understanding changes and for improving how they may be modelled at large scales.
Dannenberg, Matthew P.; Wise, Erika K.; Janko, Mark; Hwang, Taehee; Kolby Smith, W.
Short-term forecasts of vegetation activity are currently not well constrained due largely to our lack of understanding of coupled climate-vegetation dynamics mediated by complex interactions between atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Using ecoregion-scale estimates of North American vegetation activity inferred from remote sensing (1982-2015), we examined seasonal and spatial relationships between land surface phenology and the atmospheric components of five teleconnection patterns over the tropical Pacific, north Pacific, and north Atlantic. Using a set of regression experiments, we also tested for interactions among these teleconnection patterns and assessed predictability of vegetation activity solely based on knowledge of atmospheric teleconnection indices. Autumn-to-winter composites of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were strongly correlated with start of growing season timing, especially in the Pacific Northwest. The two leading modes of north Pacific variability (the Pacific-North American, PNA, and West Pacific patterns) were significantly correlated with start of growing season timing across much of southern Canada and the upper Great Lakes. Regression models based on these Pacific teleconnections were skillful predictors of spring phenology across an east-west swath of temperate and boreal North America, between 40°N-60°N. While the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was not strongly correlated with start of growing season timing on its own, we found compelling evidence of widespread NAO-SOI and NAO-PNA interaction effects. These results suggest that knowledge of atmospheric conditions over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans increases the predictability of North American spring phenology. A more robust consideration of the complexity of the atmospheric circulation system, including interactions across multiple ocean basins, is an important step towards accurate forecasts of vegetation activity.
Andrew D. Richardson; Bobby H. Braswell; David Y. Hollinger; Julian P. Jenkins; Scott V. Ollinger
There is a need to document how plant phenology is responding to global change factors, particularly warming trends. "Near-surface" remote sensing, using radiometric instruments or imaging sensors, has great potential to improve phenological monitoring because automated observations can be made at high temporal frequency. Here we build on previous work and...
NIKOLOVA, Milena; VELICKOVIC, Dragan
Qualitative and quantitative variations in the surface flavonoids in relation to phenological development of Artemisia vulgaris L. and Artemisia absinthium L. were examined. Plant material was harvested at different phenological stages (vegetative, before budding, floral budding, flowering, and fruiting) of the life cycle of the species. In A. vulgaris and A. absinthium acetone exudates, 6 and 4 flavonoid aglycones were identified, respectively, by TLC analysis. Quercetin 3,7,3'-trim...
Zhang, X.; Jayavelu, S.; Wang, J.; Henebry, G. M.; Gray, J. M.; Friedl, M. A.; Liu, Y.; Schaaf, C.; Shuai, A.
A large number of land surface phenology (LSP) products have been produced from various detection algorithms applied to coarse resolution satellite datasets across regional to global scales. However, validation of the resulting LSP products is very challenging because in-situ observations at comparable spatiotemporal scales are generally not available. This research focuses on efforts to evaluate and validate the global 500m LSP product produced from Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) NBAR time series for 2013 and 2014. Specifically, we used three different datasets to evaluate six VIIRS LSP metrics of greenup onset, mid-point of greenup phase, maturity onset, senescence onset, mid-point of senescence phase, and dormancy onset. First, we obtained the field observations from the USA National Phenology Network that has gathered extensive phenological data on individual species. Although it is inappropriate to compare these data directly with the LSP footprints, this large and spatially distributed dataset allows us to evaluate the overall quality of VIIRS LSP results. Second, we gathered PhenoCam imagery from 164 sites, which was used to extract the daily green chromatic coordinate (GCC) and vegetation contrast index (VCI)values. Utilizing these PhenoCam time series, the phenological events were quantified using a hybrid piecewise logistic models for each site. Third, we detected the phenological timing at the landscape scale (30m) from surface reflectance simulated by fusing MODIS data and Landsat 8 OLI observations in an agricultural area (in the central USA) and from overlap zones of OLI scenes in semiarid areas (California and Tibetan Plateau). The phenological timing from these three datasets was used to compare with VIIRS LSP data. Preliminary results show that the VIIRS LSP are generally comparable with phenological data from the USA-NPN, PhenoCam, and Landsat data, with differences arising in specific phenological events and land cover types.
de Beurs, K.; Brown, M. E.; Ahram, A.; Walker, J.; Henebry, G. M.
Tracking vegetation dynamics across landscapes using remote sensing, or 'land surface phenology,' is a key mechanism that allows us to understand ecosystem changes. Land surface phenology models rely on vegetation information from remote sensing, such as the datasets derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), the newer MODIS sensors on Aqua and Terra, and sometimes the higher spatial resolution Landsat data. Vegetation index data can aid in the assessment of variables such as the start of season, growing season length and overall growing season productivity. In this talk we use Landsat, MODIS and AVHRR data and derive growing season metrics based on land surface phenology models that couple vegetation indices with satellite derived accumulated growing degreeday and evapotranspiration estimates. We calculate the timing and the height of the peak of the growing season and discuss the linkage of these land surface phenology metrics with natural and anthropogenic changes on the ground in dryland ecosystems. First we will discuss how the land surface phenology metrics link with annual and interannual price fluctuations in 229 markets distributed over Africa. Our results show that there is a significant correlation between the peak height of the growing season and price increases for markets in countries such as Nigeria, Somalia and Niger. We then demonstrate how land surface phenology metrics can improve models of post-conflict resolution in global drylands. We link the Uppsala Conflict Data Program's dataset of political, economic and social factors involved in civil war termination with an NDVI derived phenology metric and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). An analysis of 89 individual conflicts in 42 dryland countries (totaling 892 individual country-years of data between 1982 and 2005) revealed that, even accounting for economic and political factors, countries that have higher NDVI growth following conflict have a lower risk of
Forkel, Matthias; Migliavacca, Mirco; Thonicke, Kirsten; Reichstein, Markus; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Weber, Ulrich; Carvalhais, Nuno
Identifying the relative importance of climatic and other environmental controls on the interannual variability and trends in global land surface phenology and greenness is challenging. Firstly, quantifications of land surface phenology and greenness dynamics are impaired by differences between satellite data sets and phenology detection methods. Secondly, dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) that can be used to diagnose controls still reveal structural limitations and contrasting sensitivities to environmental drivers. Thus, we assessed the performance of a new developed phenology module within the LPJmL (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Lands) DGVM with a comprehensive ensemble of three satellite data sets of vegetation greenness and ten phenology detection methods, thereby thoroughly accounting for observational uncertainties. The improved and tested model allows us quantifying the relative importance of environmental controls on interannual variability and trends of land surface phenology and greenness at regional and global scales. We found that start of growing season interannual variability and trends are in addition to cold temperature mainly controlled by incoming radiation and water availability in temperate and boreal forests. Warming-induced prolongations of the growing season in high latitudes are dampened by a limited availability of light. For peak greenness, interannual variability and trends are dominantly controlled by water availability and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) in all regions. Stronger greening trends in boreal forests of Siberia than in North America are associated with a stronger increase in water availability from melting permafrost soils. Our findings emphasize that in addition to cold temperatures, water availability is a codominant control for start of growing season and peak greenness trends at the global scale. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Ganguly, Sangram; Friedl, Mark A.; Tan, Bin; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Verma, Manish
Information related to land surface phenology is important for a variety of applications. For example, phenology is widely used as a diagnostic of ecosystem response to global change. In addition, phenology influences seasonal scale fluxes of water, energy, and carbon between the land surface and atmosphere. Increasingly, the importance of phenology for studies of habitat and biodiversity is also being recognized. While many data sets related to plant phenology have been collected at specific sites or in networks focused on individual plants or plant species, remote sensing provides the only way to observe and monitor phenology over large scales and at regular intervals. The MODIS Global Land Cover Dynamics Product was developed to support investigations that require regional to global scale information related to spatiotemporal dynamics in land surface phenology. Here we describe the Collection 5 version of this product, which represents a substantial refinement relative to the Collection 4 product. This new version provides information related to land surface phenology at higher spatial resolution than Collection 4 (500-m vs. 1-km), and is based on 8-day instead of 16-day input data. The paper presents a brief overview of the algorithm, followed by an assessment of the product. To this end, we present (1) a comparison of results from Collection 5 versus Collection 4 for selected MODIS tiles that span a range of climate and ecological conditions, (2) a characterization of interannual variation in Collections 4 and 5 data for North America from 2001 to 2006, and (3) a comparison of Collection 5 results against ground observations for two forest sites in the northeastern United States. Results show that the Collection 5 product is qualitatively similar to Collection 4. However, Collection 5 has fewer missing values outside of regions with persistent cloud cover and atmospheric aerosols. Interannual variability in Collection 5 is consistent with expected ranges of
Melaas, E. K.; Graesser, J.; Friedl, M. A.
Land surface phenology, including the timing of phenophase transitions and the entire seasonal cycle of surface reflectance and vegetation indices, is important for a myriad of applications including monitoring the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability and extreme events, and land cover mapping. While methods to monitor and map phenology from coarse spatial resolution instruments such as MODIS are now relatively mature, the spatial resolution of these instruments is inadequate where vegetation properties, land use, and land cover vary at spatial scales of tens of meters. To address this need, algorithms to map phenology at moderate spatial resolution (30 m) using data from Landsat have recently been developed. However, the 16-day repeat cycle of Landsat presents significant challenges in regions where changes are rapid or where cloud cover reduces the frequency of clear-sky views. The European Space Agency's Sentinel-2 satellites, which are designed to provide moderate spatial resolution data at 5-day revisit frequency near the equator and 3 day revisit frequency in the mid-latitudes, will alleviate this constraint in many parts of the world. Here, we use harmonized time series of data from Sentinel-2A and Landsat OLI (HLS) to quantify the timing of land surface phenology metrics across a sample of deciduous forest and grassland-dominated sites, and then compare these estimates with co-located in situ observations. The resulting phenology maps demonstrate the improved information related to landscape-scale features that can be estimated from HLS data relative to comparable metrics from coarse spatial resolution instruments. For example, our results based on HLS data reveal spatial patterns in phenological metrics related to topographic and land cover controls that are not resolved in MODIS data, and show good agreement with transition dates observed from in situ measurements. Our results also show systematic bias toward earlier timing of spring
Teufel, Bernardo; Sushama, Laxmi; Arora, Vivek K.; Verseghy, Diana
The pan-Arctic land surface is undergoing rapid changes in a warming climate, with near-surface permafrost projected to degrade significantly during the twenty-first century. Vegetation-related feedbacks have the potential to influence the rate of degradation of permafrost. In this study, the impact of dynamic phenology on the pan-Arctic land surface state, particularly near-surface permafrost, for the 1961-2100 period, is assessed by comparing two simulations of the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS)—one with dynamic phenology, modelled using the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM), and the other with prescribed phenology. These simulations are forced by atmospheric data from a transient climate change simulation of the 5th generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). Comparison of the CLASS coupled to CTEM simulation to available observational estimates of plant area index, spatial distribution of permafrost and active layer thickness suggests that the model captures reasonably well the overall distribution of vegetation and permafrost. It is shown that the most important impact of dynamic phenology on the land surface occurs through albedo and it is demonstrated for the first time that vegetation control on albedo during late spring and early summer has the highest potential to impact the degradation of permafrost. While both simulations show extensive near-surface permafrost degradation by the end of the twenty-first century, the strong projected response of vegetation to climate warming and increasing CO2 concentrations in the coupled simulation results in accelerated permafrost degradation in the northernmost continuous permafrost regions.
Full Text Available Land surface phenology is a highly sensitive and simple indicator of vegetation dynamics and climate change. However, few studies on spatiotemporal distribution patterns and trends in land surface phenology across different climate and vegetation types in China have been conducted since 2000, a period during which China has experienced remarkably strong El Niño events. In addition, even fewer studies have focused on changes of the end of season (EOS and length of season (LOS despite their importance. In this study, we used four methods to reconstruct Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI dataset and chose the best smoothing result to estimate land surface phenology. Then, the phenophase trends were analyzed via the Mann-Kendall method. We aimed to assess whether trends in land surface phenology have continued since 2000 in China at both national and regional levels. We also sought to determine whether trends in land surface phenology in subtropical or high altitude areas are the same as those observed in high latitude areas and whether those trends are uniform among different vegetation types. The result indicated that the start of season (SOS was progressively delayed with increasing latitude and altitude. In contrast, EOS exhibited an opposite trend in its spatial distribution, and LOS showed clear spatial patterns over this region that decreased from south to north and from east to west at a national scale. The trend of SOS was advanced at a national level, while the trend in Southern China and the Tibetan Plateau was opposite to that in Northern China. The transaction zone of the SOS within Northern China and Southern China occurred approximately between 31.4°N and 35.2°N. The trend in EOS and LOS were delayed and extended, respectively, at both national and regional levels except that of LOS in the Tibetan Plateau, which was shortened by delayed SOS onset more than by delayed EOS onset. The
Rankine, C.; Sánchez-Azofeifa, G. A.; Guzmán, J. Antonio; Espirito-Santo, M. M.; Sharp, Iain
Tropical dry forests (TDFs) present strong seasonal greenness signals ideal for tracking phenology and primary productivity using remote sensing techniques. The tightly synchronized relationship these ecosystems have with water availability offer a valuable natural experiment for observing the complex interactions between the atmosphere and the biosphere in the tropics. To investigate how well the MODIS vegetation indices (normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI)) represented the phenology of different successional stages of naturally regenerating TDFs, within a widely conserved forest fragment in the semi-arid southeast of Brazil, we installed several canopy towers with radiometric sensors to produce high temporal resolution near-surface vegetation greenness indices. Direct comparison of several years of ground measurements with a combined Aqua/Terra 8 day satellite product showed similar broad temporal trends, but MODIS often suffered from cloud contamination during the onset of the growing season and occasionally during the peak growing season. The strength of the in-situ and MODIS linear relationship was greater for NDVI than for EVI across sites but varied with forest stand age. Furthermore, we describe the onset dates and duration of canopy development phases for three years of in-situ monitoring. A seasonality analysis revealed significant discrepancies between tower and MODIS phenology transitions dates, with up to five weeks differences in growing season length estimation. Our results indicate that 8 and 16 day MODIS satellite vegetation monitoring products are suitable for tracking general patterns of tropical dry forest phenology in this region but are not temporally sufficient to characterize inter-annual differences in phenology phase onset dates or changes in productivity due to mid-season droughts. Such rapid transitions in canopy greenness are important indicators of climate change sensitivity of these
Henebry, Geoffrey; Tomaszewska, Monika; Kelgenbaeva, Kamilya
In the highlands of Kyrgyzstan, vertical transhumance is the foundation of montane agropastoralism. Terrain attributes, such as elevation, slope, and aspect, affect snow cover seasonality, which is a key influence on the timing of plant growth and forage availability. Our study areas include the highland pastures in Central Tien Shan mountains, specifically in the rayons of Naryn and At-Bashy in Naryn oblast, and Alay and Chong-Alay rayons in Osh oblast. To explore the linkages between snow cover seasonality and land surface phenology as modulated by terrain and variations in thermal time, we use 16 years (2001-2016) of Landsat surface reflectance data at 30 m resolution with MODIS land surface temperature and snow cover products at 1 km and 500 m resolution, respectively, and two digital elevation models, SRTM and ASTER GDEM. We model snow cover seasonality using frost degree-days and land surface phenology using growing degree-days as quadratic functions of thermal time: a convex quadratic (CxQ) model for land surface phenology and a concave quadratic (CvQ) model for snow cover seasonality. From the fitted parameter coefficients, we calculated phenometrics, including "peak height" and "thermal time to peak" for the CxQ models and "trough depth" and "thermal time to trough" for the CvQ models. We explore how these phenometrics change as a function of elevation and slope-aspect interactions and due to interannual variability. Further, we examine how snow cover duration and timing affects the subsequent peak height and thermal time to peak in wetter, drier, and normal years.
Full Text Available The impact of a rapidly changing climate on the biosphere is an urgent area of research for mitigation policy and management. Plant phenology is a sensitive indicator of climate change and regulates the seasonality of carbon, water, and energy fluxes between the land surface and the climate system, making it an important tool for studying biosphere–atmosphere interactions. To monitor plant phenology at regional and continental scales, automated near-surface cameras are being increasingly used to supplement phenology data derived from satellite imagery and data from ground-based human observers. We used imagery from a network of phenology cameras in a citizen science project called Season Spotter to investigate whether information could be derived from these images beyond standard, color-based vegetation indices. We found that engaging citizen science volunteers resulted in useful science knowledge in three ways: first, volunteers were able to detect some, but not all, reproductive phenology events, connecting landscape-level measures with field-based measures. Second, volunteers successfully demarcated individual trees in landscape imagery, facilitating scaling of vegetation indices from organism to ecosystem. And third, volunteers’ data were used to validate phenology transition dates calculated from vegetation indices and to identify potential improvements to existing algorithms to enable better biological interpretation. As a result, the use of citizen science in combination with near-surface remote sensing of phenology can be used to link ground-based phenology observations to satellite sensor data for scaling and validation. Well-designed citizen science projects targeting improved data processing and validation of remote sensing imagery hold promise for providing the data needed to address grand challenges in environmental science and Earth observation.
Full Text Available Plant primary production is a key driver of several ecosystem functions in seasonal marshes, such as water purification and secondary production by wildlife and domestic animals. Knowledge of the spatio-temporal dynamics of biomass production is therefore essential for the management of resources—particularly in seasonal wetlands with variable flooding regimes. We propose a method to estimate standing aboveground plant biomass using NDVI Land Surface Phenology (LSP derived from MODIS, which we calibrate and validate in the Doñana National Park’s marsh vegetation. Out of the different estimators tested, the Land Surface Phenology maximum NDVI (LSP-Maximum-NDVI correlated best with ground-truth data of biomass production at five locations from 2001–2015 used to calibrate the models (R2 = 0.65. Estimators based on a single MODIS NDVI image performed worse (R2 ≤ 0.41. The LSP-Maximum-NDVI estimator was robust to environmental variation in precipitation and hydroperiod, and to spatial variation in the productivity and composition of the plant community. The determination of plant biomass using remote-sensing techniques, adequately supported by ground-truth data, may represent a key tool for the long-term monitoring and management of seasonal marsh ecosystems.
Jones, M. O.; Kimball, J. S.; Small, E. E.; Larson, K. M.
The land surface phenology (LSP) start of season (SOS) metric signals the seasonal onset of vegetation activity, including canopy growth and associated increases in land-atmosphere water, energy and carbon (CO2) exchanges influencing weather and climate variability. The Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD) parameter determined from satellite passive microwave remote sensing provides for global LSP monitoring that is sensitive to changes in vegetation canopy water content and biomass, and insensitive to atmosphere and solar illumination constraints. Direct field measures of canopy water content and biomass changes desired for LSP validation are generally lacking due to prohibitive costs of maintaining regional monitoring networks. Alternatively, a Normalized Microwave Reflectance Index (NMRI) derived from GPS base station measurements is sensitive to daily vegetation water content changes and may provide for effective microwave LSP validation as a relatively high spatial (1000m2) and temporal resolution vegetation phenology measure. We compared NMRI (1.2 and 1.5 GHz) and satellite microwave (AMSR-E sensor) 18.7 GHz frequency VOD records (2007 to 2011) at over 300 GPS sites in North America and their derived SOS metrics for a subset of 24 homogenous land cover sites. Significant correlations were found at 276 of 305 sites, with generally favorable correspondence in the resulting SOS metrics. We also investigated the temporal dynamics of nine NMRI sites within a single 25km resolution VOD pixel and with corresponding 250m MODIS NDVI measures of the three dominant land covers within the pixel to assess the spatial scale discrepancies between these high, moderate, and coarse resolution retrievals. This study is the first attempt to compare satellite microwave LSP metrics to a GPS network derived reflectance index and highlights both the utility and limitations of the NMRI data for LSP validation. Integration of GPS base stations and the NMRI into current phenology observation
Han, Guifeng; Xu, Jianhua
Using SPOT/VGT NDVI time series images (2002-2009) and MODIS/LST images (2002-2009) smoothed by a Savitzky-Golay filter, the land surface phenology (LSP) and land surface temperature (LST), respectively, are extracted for six cities in the Yangtze River Delta, China, including Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Changzhou, Wuxi, and Suzhou. The trends of the averaged LSP and LST are analyzed, and the relationship between these values is revealed along the urban-rural gradient. The results show that urbanization advances the start of the growing season, postpones the end of the growing season, prolongs the growing season length (GSL), and reduces the difference between maximal NDVI and minimal NDVI in a year (NDVIamp). More obvious changes occur in surface vegetation phenology as the urbanized area is approached. The LST drops monotonously and logarithmically along the urban-rural gradient. Urbanization generally affects the LSP of the surrounding vegetation within 6 km to the urban edge. Except for GSL, the difference in the LSP between urban and rural areas has a significant logarithmic relationship with the distance to the urban edge. In addition, there is a very strong linear relationship between the LSP and the LST along the urban-rural gradient, especially within 6 km to the urban edge. The correlations between LSP and gross domestic product and population density reveal that human activities have considerable influence on the land surface vegetation growth.
Alemu, W G; Henebry, G M
Phenology deals with timing of biotic phenomena and seasonality concerns temporal patterns of abiotic variables. Studies of land surface phenology (LSP) and land surface seasonality (LSS) have long been limited to visible to near infrared (VNIR) wavelengths, despite degradation by atmospheric effects and solar illumination constraints. Enhanced land surface parameters derived from passive microwave data enable improved temporal monitoring of agricultural land surface dynamics compared to the vegetation index data available from VNIR data. LSPs and LSSs in grain growing regions of the Volga River Basin of Russia and the spring wheat belts of the USA and Canada were characterized using AMSR-E enhanced land surface parameters for the period from April through October for 2003 through 2010. Growing degree-days (GDDs) were calculated from AMSR-E air temperature retrievals using both ascending and descending passes with a base of 0 ° C and then accumulated (AGDD) with an annual restart each 1 April. Tracking the AMSR-E parameters as a function of AGDD revealed the expected seasonal pattern of thermal limitation in mid-latitude croplands. Vegetation optical depth (VOD), a microwave analog of a vegetation index, was modeled as a function of AGDD with the resulting fitted convex quadratic models yielding both high coefficients of determination (r 2 > 0.90) and phenometrics that could characterize cropland differences between the Russian and North American sites. The AMSR-E data were also able to capture the effects of the 2010 heat wave that devastated grain production in European Russia. These results showed the potential of AMSR-E in monitoring and modeling cropland dynamics. (letter)
Wang, Jianmin; Zhang, Xiaoyang
Land surface phenology (LSP) derived from satellite data has been widely associated with recent global climate change. However, LSP is frequently influenced by land disturbances, which significantly limits our understanding of the phenological trends driven by climate change. Because wildfire is one of the most significant disturbance agents, we investigated the influences of wildfire on the start of growing season (SOS) and the interannual trends of SOS in the Hayman Fire area that occurred in 2002 in Colorado using time series of daily MODIS data (2001-2014). Results show that the Hayman Fire advanced the area-integrated SOS by 15.2 d and converted SOS from a delaying trend of 3.9 d/decade to an advancing trend of -1.9 d/decade during 2001-2014. The fire impacts on SOS increased from low burn severity to high burn severity. Moreover, the rate of increase of annual maximum and minimum EVI2 from 2003-2014 reflects that vegetation greenness could recover to pre-fire status in 2022 and 2053, respectively, which suggests that the fire impacts on the satellite-derived SOS variability and the interannual trends should continue in the next few decades.
Hargrove, W. W.; Spruce, J.; Gasser, G.; Hoffman, F. M.
We are using a statistical clustering method for delineating homogeneous ecoregions as a basis for identifying disturbances in forests through time over large areas, up to national and global extents. Such changes can be shown relative to past conditions, or can be predicted relative to present conditions, as with forecasts of future climatic change. This quantitative ecoregion approach can be used to predict destinations for populations whose local environments are forecast to become unsuitable and are forced to migrate as their habitat shifts, and is also useful for predicting the susceptibility of new locations to invasive species like Sudden Oak Death. EFETAC and our sister western center WWETAC, along with our NASA and ORNL collaborators, are designing a new national-scale early warning system for forest threats, called FIRST. Envisioned as a change-detection system, FIRST will identify all land surface cover changes at the MODIS observational scale, and then try to discriminate normal, expected seasonal changes from locations having unusual activity that may represent potential forest threats. As a start, we have developed new national data sets every 16 days from 2002 through 2008, based on land surface phenology, or timing of leaf-out in the spring and brown-down in the fall. Changes in such phenological maps will be shown to contain important information about vegetation health status across the United States. The standard deviation of the duration of fall can be mapped, showing places where length of fall is relatively constant or is variable in length from year to year.
Zhu, Wenquan; Chen, Guangsheng; Jiang, Nan; Liu, Jianhong; Mou, Minjie
Carbon Flux Phenology (CFP) can affect the interannual variation in Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. In this study, we proposed a methodology to estimate CFP metrics with satellite-derived Land Surface Phenology (LSP) metrics and climate drivers for 4 biomes (i.e., deciduous broadleaf forest, evergreen needleleaf forest, grasslands and croplands), using 159 site-years of NEE and climate data from 32 AmeriFlux sites and MODIS vegetation index time-series data. LSP metrics combined with optimal climate drivers can explain the variability in Start of Carbon Uptake (SCU) by more than 70% and End of Carbon Uptake (ECU) by more than 60%. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the estimations was within 8.5 days for both SCU and ECU. The estimation performance for this methodology was primarily dependent on the optimal combination of the LSP retrieval methods, the explanatory climate drivers, the biome types, and the specific CFP metric. This methodology has a potential for allowing extrapolation of CFP metrics for biomes with a distinct and detectable seasonal cycle over large areas, based on synoptic multi-temporal optical satellite data and climate data.
Full Text Available Carbon Flux Phenology (CFP can affect the interannual variation in Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. In this study, we proposed a methodology to estimate CFP metrics with satellite-derived Land Surface Phenology (LSP metrics and climate drivers for 4 biomes (i.e., deciduous broadleaf forest, evergreen needleleaf forest, grasslands and croplands, using 159 site-years of NEE and climate data from 32 AmeriFlux sites and MODIS vegetation index time-series data. LSP metrics combined with optimal climate drivers can explain the variability in Start of Carbon Uptake (SCU by more than 70% and End of Carbon Uptake (ECU by more than 60%. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE of the estimations was within 8.5 days for both SCU and ECU. The estimation performance for this methodology was primarily dependent on the optimal combination of the LSP retrieval methods, the explanatory climate drivers, the biome types, and the specific CFP metric. This methodology has a potential for allowing extrapolation of CFP metrics for biomes with a distinct and detectable seasonal cycle over large areas, based on synoptic multi-temporal optical satellite data and climate data.
Honour, Sarah L.; Bell, J. Nigel B.; Ashenden, Trevor W.; Cape, J. Neil; Power, Sally A.
Vehicle exhaust emissions are a dominant feature of urban environments and are widely believed to have detrimental effects on plants. The effects of diesel exhaust emissions on 12 herbaceous species were studied with respect to growth, flower development, leaf senescence and leaf surface wax characteristics. A diesel generator was used to produce concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) representative of urban conditions, in solardome chambers. Annual mean NO x concentrations ranged from 77 nl l -l to 98 nl l -1 , with NO:NO 2 ratios of 1.4-2.2, providing a good experimental simulation of polluted roadside environments. Pollutant exposure resulted in species-specific changes in growth and phenology, with a consistent trend for accelerated senescence and delayed flowering. Leaf surface characteristics were also affected; contact angle measurements indicated changes in surface wax structure following pollutant exposure. The study demonstrated clearly the potential for realistic levels of vehicle exhaust pollution to have direct adverse effects on urban vegetation. - Fumigation experiments demonstrate adverse effects of exhaust emissions on urban vegetation
Kovalskyy, V; Henebry, G M
The formal collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991 produced major socio-economic and institutional dislocations across the agricultural sector. The picture of broad scale patterns produced by these transformations continues to be discovered. We examine here the patterns of land surface phenology (LSP) within two key river basins-Don and Dnieper-using AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) data from 1982 to 2000 and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data from 2001 to 2007. We report on the temporal persistence and change of LSPs as summarized by seasonal integration of NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) time series using accumulated growing degree-days (GDDI NDVI). Three land cover super-classes-forest lands, agricultural lands, and shrub lands-constitute 96% of the land area within the basins. All three in both basins exhibit unidirectional increases in AVHRR GDDI NDVI between the Soviet and post-Soviet epochs. During the MODIS era (2001-2007), different socio-economic trajectories in Ukraine and Russia appear to have led to divergences in the LSPs of the agricultural lands in the two basins. Interannual variation in the shrub lands of the Don river basin has increased since 2000. This is due in part to the better signal-to-noise ratio of the MODIS sensor, but may also be due to a regional drought affecting the Don basin more than the Dnieper basin.
Nguyen, L. H.; Henebry, G. M.
The Northern Great Plains of the US have been undergoing many types of land cover / land use change over the past two decades, including expansion of irrigation, conversion of grassland to cropland, biofuels production, urbanization, and fossil fuel mining. Much of the literature on these changes has relied on post-classification change detection based on a limited number of observations per year. Here we demonstrate an approach to characterize land dynamics through land surface phenology (LSP) by synergistic use of image time series at two scales. Our study areas include regions of interest (ROIs) across the Northern Great Plains located within Landsat path overlap zones to boost the number of valid observations (free of clouds or snow) each year. We first compute accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD) from MODIS 8-day composites of land surface temperature (MOD11A2 and MYD11A2). Using Landsat Collection 1 surface reflectance-derived vegetation indices (NDVI, EVI), we then fit at each pixel a downward convex quadratic model linking the vegetation index to each year's progression of AGDD. This quadratic equation exhibits linearity in a mathematical sense; thus, the fitted models can be linearly mixed and unmixed using a set of LSP endmembers (defined by the fitted parameter coefficients of the quadratic model) that represent "pure" land cover types with distinct seasonal patterns found within the region, such as winter wheat, spring wheat, maize, soybean, sunflower, hay/pasture/grassland, developed/built-up, among others. Information about land cover corresponding to each endmember are provided by the NLCD (National Land Cover Dataset) and CDL (Cropland Data Layer). We use linear unmixing to estimate the likely proportion of each LSP endmember within particular areas stratified by latitude. By tracking the proportions over the 2001-2011 period, we can quantify various types of land transitions in the Northern Great Plains.
Didan, K.; Barreto-munoz, A.; Miura, T.; Tsend-Ayush, J.
During the last five years the Vegetation Index and Phenology Lab. (vip.arizona.edu) embarked on an effort to process a global multi-sensor Earth Science Data Record of NDVI, EVI2, and land surface Phenology. Data from AVHRR, MODIS, and SPOT-VGT, covering the period 1981 to present, were processed into a seamless and sensor independent record using a suite of community algorithms for data filtering, across-sensor continuity, Vegetation Index (NDVI and EVI2), land surface Phenology, and spatial and temporal gap filling. Currently at Version 3.0 these ESDRs are suitable for the study of land surface vegetation dynamics, long term change and trends, anomalies, and can support various ecosystem and climate modeling efforts by providing key parameters. While adapting the various algorithms to processing this new data record many challenges emerged, ranging from excessive missing and poor quality data to complex and temporally dependent divergence across the various sensors making continuity quite difficult. The first step to addressing these challenges was the adoption of very strict and low tolerance to noise data filters, where the intrinsic input data quality is used along with the long term expected dynamic range to screen for outliers and poor quality. A sophisticated and explicit per-pixel and seasonally dependent across-sensor translation algorithm was developed to address the continuity more properly. To generate the land surface phenology we adapted various community algorithms to work with and take advantage of this new record. Both the standard MODIS Vegetation dynamic algorithm and an in-house homogeneous cluster algorithm were applied to the data. We've also completed a spatially and temporally explicit error and uncertainty characterization of this record. Results indicate a VI error in the range of 5-10% VI units and a 5-40 days error in the date dependent phenology parameters, with an average error of 15 days. This VIP record accounts now for more than
Hargrove, W. W.; Spruce, J.
A prototype National Early Warning System (EWS) for Forest Disturbances was established in 2010 by producing national maps showing potential forest disturbance across the conterminous United States at 231m resolution every 8 days. Each map is based on Land-Surface Phenology (LSP), calculated using temporally smoothed MODIS MOD13 imagery obtained over the preceding 24-day analysis window. Potential disturbance maps are generated by comparing a spatially and temporally specific historical expectation of normal NDVI "greenness" with NDVI "greenness" from a series of current satellite views. Three different disturbance products are produced using differing lengths of historical baseline periods to calculate the expected normal greenness. The short-term baseline products show only disturbances newer than one year ago, while the intermediate baseline products show disturbances since the prior three years, and the long-term baseline products show all disturbances over the MODIS historical period. A Forest Change Assessment Viewer website, http://ews.forestthreats.org/NPDE/NPDE.html, showcases the three most recent national disturbance maps in full spatial context. Although 2010 was a wet el Nino year without major forest problems, disturbances in 2010 in MI, NY, CO and LA will be highlighted. Forest disturbances caused by wildfire, hurricanes, tornadoes, hail, ice storms, and defoliating insects, including fall cankerworms, forest tent caterpillars, gypsy moths, baldcypress leafrollers and winter moths were successfully detected during the 2009 and 2010 field seasons. The EWS was used in 2010 to detect and alert Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) Aerial Disturbance Survey personnel to an otherwise-unknown outbreak of forest tent caterpillar and baldcypress leafroller in the Atchafalaya and Pearl River regions of southern Louisiana. A local FHM Program Coordinator verified these EWS-detected outbreaks. Many defoliator-induced disturbances were ephemeral, and were followed by
Jones, Matthew O; Kimball, John S; Small, Eric E; Larson, Kristine M
The land surface phenology (LSP) start of season (SOS) metric signals the seasonal onset of vegetation activity, including canopy growth and associated increases in land-atmosphere water, energy and carbon (CO2) exchanges influencing weather and climate variability. The vegetation optical depth (VOD) parameter determined from satellite passive microwave remote sensing provides for global LSP monitoring that is sensitive to changes in vegetation canopy water content and biomass, and insensitive to atmosphere and solar illumination constraints. Direct field measures of canopy water content and biomass changes desired for LSP validation are generally lacking due to the prohibitive costs of maintaining regional monitoring networks. Alternatively, a normalized microwave reflectance index (NMRI) derived from GPS base station measurements is sensitive to daily vegetation water content changes and may provide for effective microwave LSP validation. We compared multiyear (2007-2011) NMRI and satellite VOD records at over 300 GPS sites in North America, and their derived SOS metrics for a subset of 24 homogenous land cover sites to investigate VOD and NMRI correspondence, and potential NMRI utility for LSP validation. Significant correlations (P<0.05) were found at 276 of 305 sites (90.5 %), with generally favorable correspondence in the resulting SOS metrics (r (2)=0.73, P<0.001, RMSE=36.8 days). This study is the first attempt to compare satellite microwave LSP metrics to a GPS network derived reflectance index and highlights both the utility and limitations of the NMRI data for LSP validation, including spatial scale discrepancies between local NMRI measurements and relatively coarse satellite VOD retrievals.
Hargrove, W. W.; Spruce, J.; Norman, S. P.; Hoffman, F. M.
The National Early Warning System (EWS) provides an 8-day coast-to-coast snapshot of potentially disturbed forests across the U.S.. A prototype system has produced national maps of potential forest disturbances every eight days since January 2010, identifying locations that may require further investigation. Through phenology, the system shows both early and delayed vegetation development and detects all types of unexpected forest disturbances, including insects, disease, wildfires, frost and ice damage, tornadoes, hurricanes, blowdowns, harvest, urbanization, landslides, drought, flood, and climate change. The USDA Forest Service Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center is collaborating with NASA Stennis Space Center and the Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center to develop the tool. The EWS uses differences in phenological responses between an expectation based on historical data and a current view to strategically identify potential forest disturbances and direct attention to locations where forest behavior seems unusual. Disturbance maps are available via the Forest Change Assessment Viewer (FCAV) (http://ews.forestthreats.org/gis), which allows resource managers and other users to see the most current national disturbance maps as soon as they are available. Phenology-based detections show not only vegetation disturbances in the classical sense, but all departures from normal seasonal vegetation behavior. In 2010, the EWS detected a repeated late-frost event at high elevations in North Carolina, USA, that resulted in delayed seasonal development, contrasting with an early spring development at lower elevations, all within close geographic proximity. Throughout 2011, there was a high degree of correspondence between the National Climatic Data Center's North American Drought Monitor maps and EWS maps of phenological drought disturbance in forests. Urban forests showed earlier and more severe phenological drought disturbance than
Han, Guifeng; Xie, Hongxia
Vegetation phenology provides a relevant indicator of the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. In this study, vegetation phenology measurements were extracted and the spatial distributions were investigated using time series SPOT/VGT NDVI datasets for eastern China. Four phenology measurements were analyzed: the start of the growing season (SOS), the end of the growing season (EOS), the length of the growing season (GSL) and the time of the peak NDVI. The SOS in the northern part of the study area occurred earlier than in the rest of the study area due to larger amounts of cropland. The EOS showed a strong latitudinal pattern, especially in the southern portion of the study area. The GSL also showed a clear spatial pattern along the latitudinal gradient from north to south. The time of peak NDVI did not show a spatial pattern along the latitudinal gradient, which is likely due to the influence of vegetation types and the types of farming systems. In addition, there were no significant correlations between longitude and the four phenology measurements. SOS does not correlate with latitude, longitude or altitude, but EOS, GSL and the time of peak NDVI all correlated with latitude and altitude
Liu, L.; Zhang, X.
Land surface phenology (LSP) is an important indicator of ecosystem response to global change and reflects the exchange of water, energy, and carbon between the land surface and the atmosphere. However, the extraction of LSP in tropical Southeast Asia is very challenging due to weak seasonal variation and frequent cloud commination during the vegetation growing season. The successful launch of Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) onboard Himawari-8 geostationary satellite in October 2014 provides large opportunities to obtain cloud-free observations in daily time series data because it collects data every 10 minutes at a spatial resolution of 500m-2000 m. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument onboard operational Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) satellite provides global moderate-resolution (375-750 m) data once every day. To compare the capability of AHI and VIIRS observations to monitor LSP in frequently-cloud-covered tropical Southeast Asia, this research first extracted LSP metrics based on the time series of daily two-band enhanced vegetation index (EVI2) from AHI and VIIRS using a hybrid piecewise logistic model in 2015 and 2016. The daily AHI EVI2 was calculated from diurnal observations after EVI2 at every 10 minutes was angularly corrected using an empirical kernel-driven model to eliminate the effect caused by the varying sun-satellite geometry. Subsequently, we compared the phenological transition dates of greenup onset and dormancy onset retrieved from AHI and VIIRS data at both pixel level and country level. Finally, we assessed the influences of the quality of daily observation from AHI and VIIRS on the reconstruction of EVI2 time series and the retrievals of phenological dates.
Full Text Available Embedded crack located near free surface of a component interacts with the free surface. When the distance between the free surface and the embedded crack is short, stress at the crack tip ligament is higher than that at the other area of the cracked section. It can be easily expected that fatigue crack growth is fast, when the embedded crack locates near the free surface. To avoid catastrophic failures caused by fast fatigue crack growth at the crack tip ligament, fitness-for-service (FFS codes provide crack-to-surface proximity rules. The proximity rules are used to determine whether the cracks should be treated as embedded cracks as-is, or transformed to surface cracks. Although the concepts of the proximity rules are the same, the specific criteria and the rules to transform embedded cracks into surface cracks differ amongst FFS codes. This paper focuses on the interaction between an embedded crack and a free surface of a component as well as on its effects on the remaining fatigue lives of embedded cracks using the proximity rules provided by the FFS codes. It is shown that the remaining fatigue lives for the embedded cracks strongly depend on the crack aspect ratio and location from the component free surface. In addition, it can be said that the proximity criteria defined by the API and RSE-M codes give overly conservative remaining lives. On the contrary, the WES and AME codes always give long remaining lives and non-conservative estimations. When the crack aspect ratio is small, ASME code gives non-conservative estimation.
Baek, Kwang Ki; Park, Chung Seo; Kim, Ki Hong; Chung, Mong Kyu; Park, Jin Hwan
One of the critical issues in the coating specification is the allowable limit of surface contaminant(s) - such as soluble salt(s), grit dust, and rust - after grit blasting. Yet, there is no universally accepted data supporting the relationship between the long-term coating performance and the amount of various surface contaminants allowed after grit blasting. In this study, it was attempted to prepare epoxy coatings applied on grit-blasted steel substrate dosed with controlled amount of surface contaminants - such as soluble salt(s), grit dust, and rust. Then, coating samples were subjected to 4,200 hours of cyclic test(NORSOK M-501), which were then evaluated in terms of resistance to rust creepage, blistering, chalking, rusting, cracking and adhesion strength. Additional investigations on the possible damage at the paint/steel interface were carried out using an Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy(EIS) and observations of under-film-corrosion. Test results suggested that the current industrial specifications were well matched with the allowable degree of rust, whereas the allowable amount of soluble salt and grit dust after grit blasting showed a certain deviation from the specifications currently employed for fabrication of marine vessels and offshore facilities
Henebry, G. M.; Tomaszewska, M. A.; Krehbiel, C. P.; Kelgenbaeva, K.
To explore the vulnerability of high-elevation communities in the Kyrgyz Republic and in Uzbekistan to changing climatic, sociodemographic, and socioeconomic conditions, we assembled image time series to characterize the condition of pastures near villages at high elevation (>2000 masl) and in remote pastures at higher elevations. Here we describe the application of the convex quadratic (CxQ) model of land surface phenology to highland pasturelands for selected oblasts in the Kyrgyz Republic and in eastern Uzbekistan. We used 16 years (2000-2015) of Landsat normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data with MODIS land surface temperature data processed into accumulated growing degree-days. The peak height of the NDVI and the thermal time to peak are two key phenological metrics derived analytically from the fitted parameter coefficients of the CxQ model for each pixel time series. Both exhibited sensitivity to elevation, which we describe in terms of phenometric lapse rates (PLRs). Interannual variation in PLRs was expressed differently for the peak NDVI and the thermal time to peak. Peak NDVI increased with elevation up to a point but also exhibited more spatial variation in dry years than in wetter years. Thermal time to peak exhibited strong, highly significant negative linear relationships to elevation with steeper slopes in drier years. Both types of PLRs were modulated by aspect. These relationships and the associated CxQ models by elevation and aspect can provide expectations against which to detect changes in pasture status as a result of management or weather.
Brown, Molly E.; de Beurs, Kirsten; Vrieling, Anton
Variations in agricultural production due to rainfall and temperature fluctuations are a primary cause of food insecurity on the African continent. Analysis of changes in phenology can provide quantitative information on the effect of climate variability on growing seasons in agricultural regions. Using a robust statistical methodology, we describe the relationship between phenology metrics derived from the 26 year AVHRR NDVI record and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). We map the most significant positive and negative correlation for the four climate indices in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa between two phenological metrics and the climate indices. Our objective is to provide evidence of whether climate variability captured in the four indices has had a significant impact on the vegetative productivity of Africa during the past quarter century. We found that the start of season and cumulative NDVI were significantly affected by large scale variations in climate. The particular climate index and the timing showing highest correlation depended heavily on the region examined. In Western Africa the cumulative NDVI correlates with PDO in September-November. In Eastern Africa the start of the June-October season strongly correlates with PDO in March-May, while the PDO in December-February correlates with the start of the February-June season. The cumulative NDVI over this last season relates to the MEI of March-May. For Southern Africa, high correlations exist between SOS and NAO of September-November, and cumulative NDVI and MEI of March-May. The research shows that climate indices can be used to anticipate late start and variable vigor in the growing season of sensitive agricultural regions in Africa.
Cho, Moses A
Full Text Available Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of land surface phenology is important to understanding changes in landscape ecological processes of semi-arid savannas in Southern Africa. The aim of the study was to determine the influence of variation...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Phenology is the scientific study of periodic biological phenomena, such as flowering, breeding, and migration, in relation to climatic conditions. The few records...
Yan, D.; Zhang, X.; Yu, Y.; Guo, W.
The characteristics of land surface phenology (LSP) in the "Never-green" Sahara desert and the "Ever-green" equatorial Congo Basin were rarely discussed due to the extremely low seasonal greenness variations across the Sahara desert and the prolonged cloud cover over the Congo Basin. Based on 30-minute observations acquired by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager onboard the METEOSAT geostationary satellites, we generated a three-day angularly corrected Two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) time series for each year between 2006 and 2013. We further reconstructed EVI2 temporal trajectories and retrieved LSP transitions using the Hybrid Piecewise Logistic Model. We associated the LSP transitions with the rainy season transitions derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Product 3B42. Results show that LSP within both the Sahara Desert and the Congo Basin was strongly controlled by the rainfall seasonality. Specially, although there is no vegetation growth in most part of the Sahara Desert, recurring LSP was spatially detected in irrigation agriculture and the geomorphological regions of wadis, dayas, chotts/sebkhas and rocky hills. These geomorphological features are able to store moisture in soil to keep plants growing during the long dry seasons after vegetation greenup is triggered by rainfall events. The spatial shift of phenological timing is controlled by the Mediterranean rainfall regime in the north and the rainfalls brought by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the south. Across the equatorial Congo Basin, EVI2 time series reveals that canopy greenness cycles (CGC) of the seasonal leaf variation occur in tropical rainforests, which differs from the commonly termed "growing season" with complete leafless canopies. The seasonal EVI2 amplitude is very small and represents the gradual "leaf-exchange" processes. Two annual CGC are found and their spatial shifts closely follow the seasonal migration of ITCZ precipitation.
Rodriguez-Galiano, Victor; Aragones, David; Caparros-Santiago, Jose A.; Navarro-Cerrillo, Rafael M.
Land surface phenology (LSP) can improve the characterisation of forest areas and their change processes. The aim of this work was: i) to characterise the temporal dynamics in Mediterranean Pinus forests, and ii) to evaluate the potential of LSP for species discrimination. The different experiments were based on 679 mono-specific plots for the 5 native species on the Iberian Peninsula: P. sylvestris, P. pinea, P. halepensis, P. nigra and P. pinaster. The entire MODIS NDVI time series (2000-2016) of the MOD13Q1 product was used to characterise phenology. The following phenological parameters were extracted: the start, end and median days of the season, and the length of the season in days, as well as the base value, maximum value, amplitude and integrated value. Multi-temporal metrics were calculated to synthesise the inter-annual variability of the phenological parameters. The species were discriminated by the application of Random Forest (RF) classifiers from different subsets of variables: model 1) NDVI-smoothed time series, model 2) multi-temporal metrics of the phenological parameters, and model 3) multi-temporal metrics and the auxiliary physical variables (altitude, slope, aspect and distance to the coastline). Model 3 was the best, with an overall accuracy of 82%, a kappa coefficient of 0.77 and whose most important variables were: elevation, coast distance, and the end and start days of the growing season. The species that presented the largest errors was P. nigra, (kappa= 0.45), having locations with a similar behaviour to P. sylvestris or P. pinaster.
Jochner, Susanne; Menzel, Annette
Phenology is believed to be a suitable bio-indicator to track climate change. Based on the strong statistical association between phenology and temperature phenological observations provide an inexpensive means for the temporal and spatial analysis of the urban heat island. However, other environmental factors might also weaken this relationship. In addition, the investigation of urban phenology allows an estimation of future phenology from current information since cities with their amplified temperatures may serve as a proxy for future conditions. Nevertheless, the design of spatial compared to long-term studies might be influenced by different factors which should be taken into consideration when interpreting results from a specific study. In general, plants located in urban areas tend to flush and bloom earlier than in the countryside. What are the consequences of these urban–rural differences? This review will document existing findings on urban phenology and will highlight areas in which further research is needed. - Highlights: • Urban phenology can be used for the estimation of the urban heat island effect. • Confounding factors weaken the phenology–temperature relationship. • Urban phenology is useful as a proxy for climate change impacts on phenology. • Differences in the study design hinder the generalisation of one specific method. • Urban–rural variations in phenology affect vegetation, meteorology, human health. - Studies on urban phenology can be used to detect urban heat islands and to assess climate change impacts but it still remains important to adequately link spatial and long-term data
Wang, Yeqiao; Zhao, Jianjun; Zhou, Yuyu; Zhang, Hongyan
The gradients of the Appalachian Mountains in elevations and latitudes provide a unique regional perspective of landscape variations in the eastern United States and a section of the southeastern Canada. This study reveals patterns and trends of landscape dynamics, land surface phenology and ecosystem production along the Appalachian Mountains using time series data from Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) and AVHRR Global Production Efficiency Model (GloPEM) datasets. We analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), length of growing season (LOS) and net primary production (NPP) of selected ecoregions along the Appalachian Mountains regions. We compared the results out of the Appalachian Mountains regions in different spatial contexts including the North America and the Appalachian Trail corridor area. To reveal latitudinal variations we analyzed data and compared the results between 30°N-40°N and 40°N-50°N latitudes. The result revealed significant decreases in annual peak NDVI in the Appalachian Mountains regions. The trend for the Appalachian Mountains regions was -0.0018 (R2=0.55, P<0.0001) NDVI unit decrease per year during 25 years between 1982 and 2006. The LOS had prolonged 0.3 day yr-1 during 25 years over the Appalachian Mountains regions. The NPP increased by 2.68 gC m-2yr-2 in Appalachian Mountains regions from 1981 to 2000. The comparison with the North America reveals the effects of topography and ecosystem compositions of the Appalachian Mountains. The comparison with the Appalachian Trail corridor area provides a regional mega-transect view of the measured variables.
Full Text Available In many parts of Africa, spatially-explicit information on plant α-diversity, i.e., the number of species in a given area, is missing as baseline information for spatial planning. We present an approach on how to combine vegetation-plot databases and remotely-sensed land surface phenology (LSP metrics to predict plant α-diversity on a regional scale. We gathered data on plant α-diversity, measured as species density, from 999 vegetation plots sized 20 m × 50 m covering all major vegetation units of the Okavango basin in the countries of Angola, Namibia and Botswana. As predictor variables, we used MODIS LSP metrics averaged over 12 years (250-m spatial resolution and three topographic attributes calculated from the SRTM digital elevation model. Furthermore, we tested whether additional climatic data could improve predictions. We tested three predictor subsets: (1 remote sensing variables; (2 climatic variables; and (3 all variables combined. We used two statistical modeling approaches, random forests and boosted regression trees, to predict vascular plant α-diversity. The resulting maps showed that the Miombo woodlands of the Angolan Central Plateau featured the highest diversity, and the lowest values were predicted for the thornbush savanna in the Okavango Delta area. Models built on the entire dataset exhibited the best performance followed by climate-only models and remote sensing-only models. However, models including climate data showed artifacts. In spite of lower model performance, models based only on LSP metrics produced the most realistic maps. Furthermore, they revealed local differences in plant diversity of the landscape mosaic that were blurred by homogenous belts as predicted by climate-based models. This study pinpoints the high potential of LSP metrics used in conjunction with biodiversity data derived from vegetation-plot databases to produce spatial information on a regional scale that is urgently needed for basic
Full Text Available Recent findings from the area of Modena, in Northern Italy, have revitalized the debate on the association between human skeletal remains and artificial hydraulic structures. In this paper, our intention is to assemble the relevant archaeological and anthropological data on the matter in order to establish whether these findings are exceptional and isolated or indicate instead a structured and specific cultural behaviour which persists through time.
Harrison, J.; Metson, G.; Beusen, A.
Over the past century humans have greatly accelerated phosphorus (P) flows from land to aquatic ecosystems, causing eutrophication and associated effects such as harmful algal blooms and hypoxia. Effectively addressing this challenge requires understanding geographic and temporal distribution of aquatic P loading, knowledge of major controls on P loading, and the relative importance of various potential P sources. The Global (N)utrient (E)xport from (W)ater(S)heds) NEWS model and recent improvements and extensions of this modeling system can be used to generate this understanding. This presentation will focus on insights global NEWS models grant into past, present, and potential future P sources and sinks, with a focus on the world's large rivers. Early results suggest: 1) that while aquatic P loading is globally dominated by particulate forms, dissolved P can be locally dominant; 2) that P loading has increased substantially at the global scale, but unevenly between world regions, with hotspots in South and East Asia; 3) that P loading is likely to continue to increase globally, but decrease in certain regions that are actively pursuing proactive P management; and 4) that point sources, especially in urban centers, play an important (even dominant) role in determining loads of dissolved inorganic P. Despite these insights, substantial unexplained variance remains when model predictions and measurements are compared at global and regional scales, for example within the U.S. Disagreements between model predictions and measurements suggest opportunities for model improvement. In particular, explicit inclusion of soil characteristics and the concept of temporal P legacies in future iterations of NEWS (and other) models may help improve correspondence between models and measurements.
Alemu, W. G.; Henebry, G. M.
Grasslands and wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) have been converted to croplands in recent years. Crops cultivated in the PPR are also changing: spring wheat and alfalfa/hay are being switched to corn and soybean due to biofuel demand. According to the USDA Cropland Data Layer (CDL) from 2003 to 2015, spring wheat significantly decreased (r2 = 0.74), while corn and soybeans significantly increased (r2 = 0.86). We characterized land surface phenologies and land surface seasonalities across the PPR using the finer temporal (twice daily) but much lower spatial (25 km) resolution Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR: blended from AMSR-E and AMSR2) enhanced land surface parameters for 2003-2015 (DOY 91-330 annual cycles). We tracked the temporal development of these land surface parameters as a function of accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD) based on the AMSR retrieved air temperature data. Growing degree-days (GDD) revealed distinct seasonality typical to temperate grasslands and croplands. GDD peaks were 23°C and it peaks at 1700°C AGDD. Precipitable water vapor (V) displayed seasonality comparable to GDD. Vegetation optical depth (VOD) revealed distinct land surface phenologies for grasslands versus croplands. We explored the changing crop fractions within the 25 km AMSR pixels using the CDL. Crop-dominated sites VOD time series caught the early spring growth, ploughing, and crop growth dynamics. In contrast, the VOD time series at grass-dominated sites exhibited a lower but more extended amplitude throughout the non-frozen season. VODs peaked at 1.6 and 1.3 for croplands and grasslands, respectively. Croplands peaked about a month later than grasslands (2200 °C AGDD vs. 1600 °C AGDD). The other parameters available from the AMSR dataset—soil moisture (sm), and fractional open water (fw)—together with the AGDD time series constructed from the AMSR air temperature data revealed the passage of storm systems during the growing season. Soil
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The NASA MEaSUREs Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) global datasets were created using surface reflectance data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer...
Application of Near-Surface Remote Sensing and computer algorithms in evaluating impacts of agroecosystem management on Zea mays (corn) phenological development in the Platte River - High Plains Aquifer Long Term Agroecosystem Research Network field sites.
Okalebo, J. A.; Das Choudhury, S.; Awada, T.; Suyker, A.; LeBauer, D.; Newcomb, M.; Ward, R.
The Long-term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) network is a USDA-ARS effort that focuses on conducting research that addresses current and emerging issues in agriculture related to sustainability and profitability of agroecosystems in the face of climate change and population growth. There are 18 sites across the USA covering key agricultural production regions. In Nebraska, a partnership between the University of Nebraska - Lincoln and ARD/USDA resulted in the establishment of the Platte River - High Plains Aquifer LTAR site in 2014. The site conducts research to sustain multiple ecosystem services focusing specifically on Nebraska's main agronomic production agroecosystems that comprise of abundant corn, soybeans, managed grasslands and beef production. As part of the national LTAR network, PR-HPA participates and contributes near-surface remotely sensed imagery of corn, soybean and grassland canopy phenology to the PhenoCam Network through high-resolution digital cameras. This poster highlights the application, advantages and usefulness of near-surface remotely sensed imagery in agroecosystem studies and management. It demonstrates how both Infrared and Red-Green-Blue imagery may be applied to monitor phenological events as well as crop abiotic stresses. Computer-based algorithms and analytic techniques proved very instrumental in revealing crop phenological changes such as green-up and tasseling in corn. This poster also reports the suitability and applicability of corn-derived computer based algorithms for evaluating phenological development of sorghum since both crops have similarities in their phenology; with sorghum panicles being similar to corn tassels. This later assessment was carried out using a sorghum dataset obtained from the Transportation Energy Resources from Renewable Agriculture Phenotyping Reference Platform project, Maricopa Agricultural Center, Arizona.
Patterns of phenology for plants and animals control ecosystem processes, determine land surface properties, control biosphere-atmosphere interactions, and affect food production, health, conservation, and recreation. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; www.usanpn.org) is an emerging and exciting partnership between federal agencies, the academic community, and the general public to establish a national science and monitoring initiative focused on phenology as a tool to understand how plants, animals and landscapes respond to climate variation, and as a tool to facilitate human adaptation to ongoing and potential future climate change. In its second year of operation, USA-NPN produced many new phenology products and venues for phenology research and citizen involvement. A new web-page contains an advanced on-line user interface to facilitate entry of contemporary data into the National Phenology Database. The new plant phenology monitoring program provides standardized methods and monitoring protocols for 215 local, regional, and nationally distributed plant species. Monitoring methods have been modified to facilitate collection of sampling intensity and absence data for both plants and animals; animal monitoring protocols will be added in March 2010. Coordinated development of regional networks will facilitate focused communication and interaction around regional phenology issues. Future directions include increased integration with national and international formal and informal science networks; enhanced consistency and availability of remote sensing of phenology terminology, methods, products and services; tools for discovery, description, ingestion, curation and distribution of historic phenology datasets; and, improvement of tools for data entry, download and visualization.
Vliet, van A.J.H.; Groot, de R.S.; Bellens, Y.; Braun, P.; Bruegger, R.; Bruns, E.; Clevers, J.G.P.W.; Estreguil, C.; Flechsig, M.; Jeanneret, F.; Maggi, M.; Martens, P.; Menne, B.; Menzel, A.; Sparks, T.
The analysis of changes in the timing of life cycle-events of organisms (phenology) has been able to contribute significantly to the assessment of potential impacts of climate change on ecology. These phenological responses of species to changes in climate are likely to have significant relevance
Assis, Sandra; Keenleyside, Anne
Bone trauma is a common occurrence in human skeletal remains. Macroscopic and imaging scrutiny is the approach most currently used to analyze and describe trauma. Nevertheless, this line of inquiry may not be sufficient to accurately identify the type of traumatic lesion and the associated degree of bone healing. To test the usefulness of histology in the examination of bone healing biology, we used an integrative approach that combines gross inspection and microscopy. Six bone samples belonging to 5 adult individuals with signs of bone trauma were collected from the Human Identified Skeletal Collection from the Museu Bocage (Lisbon, Portugal). Previous to sampling, the lesions were described according to their location, morphology, and healing status. After sampling, the bone specimens were prepared for plane light and polarized light analysis. The histological analysis was pivotal: (1) to differentiate between types of traumatic lesions; (2) to ascertain the posttraumatic interval, and (3) to diagnose other associated pathological conditions. The outer surface of a bone lesion may not give a complete picture of the biology of the tissue's response. Accordingly, microscopic analysis is essential to differentiate, characterize, and classify trauma signs. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.
Weltzin, J. F.
Patterns of phenology for plants and animals control ecosystem processes, determine land surface properties, control biosphere-atmosphere interactions, and affect food production, health, conservation, and recreation. Although directional climate change has already caused documented shifts in organismal, population, community and ecosystem-level patterns and processes, a national phenological assessment requires a comprehensive suite of standardized methodologies to track phenology across a range of spatial and temporal scales (e.g., organismal to landscapes). The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; www.usanpn.org) is an emerging and exciting partnership between federal agencies, the academic community, and the general public to establish a national science and monitoring initiative focused on phenology as a tool to understand how plants, animals and landscapes respond to climate variation, and as a tool to facilitate human adaptation to ongoing and potential future climate change. USA-NPN will (1) integrate with other formal and informal science observation networks (e.g., NEON, LTER, Ameriflux, NPS I & M, OBFS, GEO, public gardens, conservation groups) including regional phenology networks; (2) utilize and enhance remote sensing products, emerging technologies and data management capabilities; and (3) capitalize on myriad educational opportunities and a new readiness of the public to participate in investigations of nature on a national scale. In its second year of operation, USA-NPN produced many new phenology products and venues for phenology research and citizen involvement that will facilitate local, regional or national assessments of phenology. A new web-page contains an advanced on-line user interface to facilitate entry of contemporary data into the National Phenology Database. The new plant phenology monitoring program provides standardized methodologies and monitoring protocols for 215 local, regional, and nationally distributed plant species
Mendoza, Irene; Peres, Carlos A.; Morellato, Leonor Patrícia C.
Changes in the life cycle of organisms (i.e. phenology) are one of the most widely used early-warning indicators of climate change, yet this remains poorly understood throughout the tropics. We exhaustively reviewed any published and unpublished study on fruiting phenology carried out at the community level in the American tropics and subtropics (latitudinal range: 26°N-26°S) to (1) provide a comprehensive overview of the current status of fruiting phenology research throughout the Neotropics; (2) unravel the climatic factors that have been widely reported as drivers of fruiting phenology; and (3) provide a preliminary assessment of the potential phenological responses of plants under future climatic scenarios. Despite the large number of phenological datasets uncovered (218), our review shows that their geographic distribution is very uneven and insufficient for the large surface of the Neotropics ( 1 dataset per 78,000 km2). Phenological research is concentrated in few areas with many studies (state of São Paulo, Brazil, and Costa Rica), whereas vast regions elsewhere are entirely unstudied. Sampling effort in fruiting phenology studies was generally low: the majority of datasets targeted fewer than 100 plant species (71%), lasted 2 years or less (72%), and only 10.4% monitored > 15 individuals per species. We uncovered only 10 sites with ten or more years of phenological monitoring. The ratio of numbers of species sampled to overall estimates of plant species richness was wholly insufficient for highly diverse vegetation types such as tropical rainforest, seasonal forest and cerrado, and only slightly more robust for less diverse vegetation types, such as deserts, arid shrublands and open grassy savannas. Most plausible drivers of phenology extracted from these datasets were environmental (78.5%), whereas biotic drivers were rare (6%). Among climatic factors, rainfall was explicitly included in 73.4% of cases, followed by air temperature (19.3%). Other
Kasabova, Boryana E; Holliday, Trenton W
A new model for estimating human body surface area and body volume/mass from standard skeletal metrics is presented. This model is then tested against both 1) "independently estimated" body surface areas and "independently estimated" body volume/mass (both derived from anthropometric data) and 2) the cylindrical model of Ruff. The model is found to be more accurate in estimating both body surface area and body volume/mass than the cylindrical model, but it is more accurate in estimating body surface area than it is for estimating body volume/mass (as reflected by the standard error of the estimate when "independently estimated" surface area or volume/mass is regressed on estimates derived from the present model). Two practical applications of the model are tested. In the first test, the relative contribution of the limbs versus the trunk to the body's volume and surface area is compared between "heat-adapted" and "cold-adapted" populations. As expected, the "cold-adapted" group has significantly more of its body surface area and volume in its trunk than does the "heat-adapted" group. In the second test, we evaluate the effect of variation in bi-iliac breadth, elongated or foreshortened limbs, and differences in crural index on the body's surface area to volume ratio (SA:V). Results indicate that the effects of bi-iliac breadth on SA:V are substantial, while those of limb lengths and (especially) the crural index are minor, which suggests that factors other than surface area relative to volume are driving morphological variation and ecogeographical patterning in limb prorportions. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Phenology Network has been established to provide national wide observations of vegetation phenology. However, as the Network is still in the early phases of establishment and growth, the density of observers is not yet adequate to sufficiently document the phenology variability over large regions. Hence a combination of satellite data and ground observations can provide optimal information regarding juniperus spp. pollen phenology. MODIS data was to observe Juniperus supp. pollen phenology. The MODIS surface reflectance product provided information on the Juniper supp. cone formation and cone density. Ground based observational records of pollen release timing and quantities were used as verification. Approximately 10, 818 records of juniper phenology for male cone formation Juniperus ashei., J. monosperma, J. scopulorum, and J. pinchotti were reported by Nature's Notebook observers in 2013 These observations provided valuable information for the analysis of satellite images for developing the pollen concentration masks for input into the PREAM (Pollen REgional Atmospheric Model) pollen transport model. The combination of satellite data and ground observations allowed us to improve our confidence in predicting pollen release and spread, thereby improving asthma and allergy alerts.
Laube, Julia; Sparks, Tim H.; Estrella, Nicole; Menzel, Annette
An overwhelming number of studies confirm that temperature is the main driver for phenological events such as leafing, flowering or fruit ripening, which was first discovered by Réaumur in 1735. Since then, several additional factors which influence onset dates have been identified, such as length of the chilling period, photoperiod, temperature of the previous autumn, nutrient availability, precipitation, sunshine and genetics (local adaptations). Those are supposed to capture some of the remaining, unexplained variance. But our ability to predict onset dates remains imprecise, and our understanding of how plants sense temperature is vague. From a climate chamber experiment on cuttings of 9 tree species we present evidence that air humidity is an important, but previously overlooked, factor influencing the spring phenology of trees. The date of median leaf unfolding was 7 days earlier at 90% relative humidity compared to 40% relative humidity. A second experiment with cuttings shows that water uptake by above-ground tissue might be involved in the phenological development of trees. A third climate chamber experiment suggests that winter dormancy and chilling might be linked to dehydration processes. Analysis of climate data from several meteorological stations across Germany proves that the increase in air humidity after winter is a reliable signal of spring, i.e. less variable or susceptible to reversal compared to temperature. Finally, an analysis of long-term phenology data reveals that absolute air humidity can even be used as a reliable predictor of leafing dates. Current experimental work tries to elucidate the involved foliar uptake processes by using deuterium oxide marked water and Raman spectroscopy. We propose a new framework, wherein plants' chilling requirements and frost tolerance might be attributed to desiccation processes, while spring development is linked to re-humidification of plant tissue. The influence of air humidity on the spring
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The NASA MEaSUREs Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) global datasets were created using surface reflectance data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer...
McGrath, Laura J; van Riper, Charles; Fontaine, Joseph J
1. Neotropical migrant birds show a clear preference for stopover habitats with ample food supplies; yet, the proximate cues underlying these decisions remain unclear. 2. For insectivorous migrants, cues associated with vegetative phenology (e.g. flowering, leaf flush, and leaf loss) may reliably predict the availability of herbivorous arthropods. Here we examined whether migrants use the phenology of five tree species to choose stopover locations, and whether phenology accurately predicts food availability. 3. Using a combination of experimental and observational evidence, we show migrant populations closely track tree phenology, particularly the flowering phenology of honey mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa), and preferentially forage in trees with more flowers. Furthermore, the flowering phenology of honey mesquite reliably predicts overall arthropod abundance as well as the arthropods preferred by migrants for food. 4. Together, these results suggest that honey mesquite flowering phenology is an important cue used by migrants to assess food availability quickly and reliably, while in transit during spring migration.
McGrath, L.J.; van Riper, Charles; Fontaine, J.J.
1. Neotropical migrant birds show a clear preference for stopover habitats with ample food supplies; yet, the proximate cues underlying these decisions remain unclear. 2. For insectivorous migrants, cues associated with vegetative phenology (e.g. flowering, leaf flush, and leaf loss) may reliably predict the availability of herbivorous arthropods. Here we examined whether migrants use the phenology of five tree species to choose stopover locations, and whether phenology accurately predicts food availability. 3. Using a combination of experimental and observational evidence, we show migrant populations closely track tree phenology, particularly the flowering phenology of honey mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa), and preferentially forage in trees with more flowers. Furthermore, the flowering phenology of honey mesquite reliably predicts overall arthropod abundance as well as the arthropods preferred by migrants for food. 4. Together, these results suggest that honey mesquite flowering phenology is an important cue used by migrants to assess food availability quickly and reliably, while in transit during spring migration. ?? 2008 The Authors.
Wolkovich, E. M.; Flynn, D. F. B.
In recent years increasing attention has focused on plant phenology as an important indicator of the biological impacts of climate change, as many plants have shifted their leafing and flowering earlier with increasing temperatures. As data have accumulated, researchers have found a link between phenological responses to warming and plant performance and invasions. Such work suggests phenology may not only be a major impact of warming, but a critical predictor of future plant performance. Yet alongside this increasing interest in phenology, important issues remain unanswered: responses to warming for species at the same site or in the same genus vary often by weeks or more and the explanatory power of phenology for performance and invasions when analyzed across diverse datasets remains low. We propose progress can come from explicitly considering phenology within a community context and as a critical plant trait correlated with other major plant functional traits. Here, we lay out a framework for our proposal: specifically we review how we expect phenology and phenological cues of different species within a community to vary and what other functional traits are predicted to co-vary with phenological traits. Much research currently suggests phenology is a critical functional trait that is shaped strongly by the environment. Plants are expected to adjust their phenologies to avoid periods of high abiotic risk and/or high competition. Thus we may expect phenology to correlate strongly to other traits involved in mitigating risk and high competition. Results from recent meta-analyses as well as experimental and observational research from 28 species in northeastern North American temperate forests suggest that species within a community show the predicted diversified set of phenological cues. We review early work on links to other functional traits and in closing review how these correlations may in turn determine the diversity of phenological responses observed for
Patrícia Morellato, Leonor
Detecting plant responses to environmental changes across the Southern Hemisphere is an important question in the global agenda, as there is still a shortage of studies addressing phenological trends related to global warming. Here I bring a fresh perspective on the current knowledge of South America's phenology, and discusss the challenges and future research agendas for one of the most diverse regions of the world. I will syntethize: (i) What is the current focus of contemporany phenological research in South America? (ii) Is phenology contributing to the detection of trends and shifts related to climate or antropogenic changes? (iii) How has phenology been integrated to conservation, restoration, and management of natural vegetation and endangered species? (iv) What would be the main challenges and new avenues for South American phenological research in the 21st century? (v) Can we move towards phenology monitoring networks, linked to citizen science and education? My perspective is based on recent reviews addressing the Southeastern Hemisphere, South America, and Neotropical phenology; and on reviews and essays on the contribution of phenological research to biodiversity conservation, management, and ecological restoration, emphasizing tropical, species-rich ecosystems. Phenological research has grown at an unprecedented rate in the last 20 years, surpassing 100 articles per year after 2010. There is still a predominance of short-term studies (2-3 years) describing patterns and drivers for reproduction and leaf exchange. Only 10 long-term studies were found, based on direct observations or plant traps, and this number did not add much to the previous surveys. Therefore, we remain in need of more long-term studies to enhance the contribution of phenology to climate change research in South America. It is also mandatory to bring conservation issues to phenology research. The effects of climatic and antropogenic changes on plant phenology have been addressed
Patterns of phenology for plants and animals control ecosystem processes, determine land surface properties, control biosphere-atmosphere interactions, and affect food production, health, conservation, and recreation. Although phenological data and models have applications related to scientific research, education and outreach, agriculture, tourism and recreation, human health, and natural resource conservation and management, until recently there was no coordinated effort to understand phenology at the national scale in the United States. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; www.usanpn.org), established in 2007, is an emerging and exciting partnership between federal agencies, the academic community, and the general public to establish a national science and monitoring initiative focused on phenology. The first year of operation of USA-NPN produced many new phenology products and venues for phenology research and citizen involvement. Products include a new web-site (www.usanpn.org) that went live in June 2008; the web-site includes a tool for on-line data entry, and serves as a clearinghouse for products and information to facilitate research and communication related to phenology. The new core Plant Phenology Program includes profiles for 200 vetted local, regional, and national plant species with descriptions and (BBCH-consistent) monitoring protocols, as well as templates for addition of new species. A partnership program describes how other monitoring networks can engage with USA-NPN to collect, manage or disseminate phenological information for science, health, education, management or predictive service applications. Project BudBurst, a USA-NPN field campaign for citizen scientists, went live in February 2008, and now includes over 3000 registered observers monitoring 4000 plants across the nation. For 2009 and beyond, we will initiate a new Wildlife Phenology Program, create an on-line clearing-house for phenology education and outreach, strengthen
Pau, Stephanie; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Davies, T. Jonathan; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Betancourt, Julio L.; Cleland, Elsa E.
Forecasting how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change has been a major aim of ecology in recent years. Much of this research has focused on phenology — the timing of life-history events. Phenology has well-demonstrated links to climate, from genetic to landscape scales; yet our ability to explain and predict variation in phenology across species, habitats and time remains poor. Here, we outline how merging approaches from ecology, climate science and evolutionary biology can advance research on phenological responses to climate variability. Using insight into seasonal and interannual climate variability combined with niche theory and community phylogenetics, we develop a predictive approach for species' reponses to changing climate. Our approach predicts that species occupying higher latitudes or the early growing season should be most sensitive to climate and have the most phylogenetically conserved phenologies. We further predict that temperate species will respond to climate change by shifting in time, while tropical species will respond by shifting space, or by evolving. Although we focus here on plant phenology, our approach is broadly applicable to ecological research of plant responses to climate variability.
Ibáñez, Inés; Primack, Richard B; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J; Ellwood, Elizabeth; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi; Lee, Sang Don; Kobori, Hiromi; Silander, John A
As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953-2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology.
Ibáñez, Inés; Primack, Richard B.; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.; Ellwood, Elizabeth; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi; Lee, Sang Don; Kobori, Hiromi; Silander, John A.
As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953–2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology. PMID:20819816
Phenological events defined points in the life cycle of a plant or animal have been regarded as highly plastic traits, reflecting flexible responses to various environmental cues. The ability of a species to track, via shifts in phenological events, the abiotic environment through time might dictate its vulnerability to future climate change. Understanding the predictors and drivers of phenological change is therefore critical. Here, we evaluated evidence for phylogenetic conservatism the tendency for closely related species to share similar ecological and biological attributes in phenological traits across flowering plants. We aggregated published and unpublished data on timing of first flower and first leaf, encompassing 4000 species at 23 sites across the Northern Hemisphere. We reconstructed the phylogeny for the set of included species, first, using the software program Phylomatic, and second, from DNA data. We then quantified phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology within and across sites. We show that more closely related species tend to flower and leaf at similar times. By contrasting mean flowering times within and across sites, however, we illustrate that it is not the time of year that is conserved, but rather the phenological responses to a common set of abiotic cues. Our findings suggest that species cannot be treated as statistically independent when modelling phenological responses.Closely related species tend to resemble each other in the timing of their life-history events, a likely product of evolutionarily conserved responses to environmental cues. The search for the underlying drivers of phenology must therefore account for species' shared evolutionary histories.
R. A. Carlson
The 100-B-1 waste site was a dumping site that was divided into two areas. One area was used as a laydown area for construction materials, and the other area was used as a chemical dumping area. The 100-B-1 Surface Chemical and Solid Waste Dumping Area site meets the remedial action objectives specified in the Remaining Sites ROD. The results demonstrate that residual contaminant concentrations support future unrestricted land uses that can be represented by a rural-residential scenario. The results also demonstrate that residual contaminant concentrations are protective of groundwater and the Columbia River.
Thomas, K. A.; Weltzin, J. F.; Denny, E. G.
The USA-National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) is a collection of interested individuals, agencies, and organizations that are contributing toward the building of a nation-wide collection of standardized phenology observations. Plant phenology observations are an important component of this effort that can be applied to phenological assessments at multiple scales. The National Coordinating Office (NCO) of the USA-NPN manages a web site (http://www.usanpn.org) that is a portal for standardized phenology monitoring instructions, plant species profiles, observation site registration, and observation data entry. Observers participate by making observations at individual sites, such in their backyard, on plants selected from the 213 currently available on the clearinghouse web site or on cloned lilacs provided through the USA-NPN Cloned Plant Project using phenophase status monitoring. Or, observers can choose to monitor any plant species using the simpler phenological event monitoring described by the USA-NPN program established for K-12 and the general public at Project BudBurst (http://www.windows.ucar.edu/citizen_science/budburst/). All plant data observations are archived within the information core of the USA-NPN, the National Phenology Information Management System (NPIMS). During its first full year of operation in 2009, hundreds of observers submitted plant phenology observation entries through ‘MyNPN’ on the clearinghouse web site.
Andrew D. Richardson; David Y. Hollinger; D. Bryan Dail; John T. Lee; J. William Munger; John O' Keefe
Spring phenology is thought to exert a major influence on the carbon (C) balance of temperate and boreal ecosystems. We investigated this hypothesis using four spring onset phenological indicators in conjunction with surface-atmosphere CO2 exchange data from the conifer-dominated Howland Forest and deciduous-dominated Harvard Forest AmeriFlux...
Stutzman, Ryan J.; Fontaine, Joseph J
Changes in temperature and seasonality resulting from climate change are heterogeneous, potentially altering important sources of natural selection acting on species phenology. Some species have apparently adapted to climate change but the ability of most species to adapt remains unknown. The life history strategies of migratory animals are dictated by seasonal factors, which makes these species particularly vulnerable to heterogeneous changes in climate and phenology. Here, we examine the phenology of migratory shorebirds, their habitats, and primary food resources, and we hypothesize how climate change may affect migrants through predicted changes in phenology. Daily abundance of shorebirds at stopover sites was correlated with local phenology and peaked immediately prior to peaks in invertebrate food resources. A close relationship between migrant and invertebrate phenology indicates that shorebirds may be vulnerable to changes in seasonality driven by climate change. It is possible that shifts in migrant and invertebrate phenology will be congruent in magnitude and direction, but because migration phenology is dependent on a suite of ecological factors, any response is likely to occur at a larger temporal scale and may lag behind the response of invertebrate food resources. The resulting lack of sufficient access to food at stopover habitats may cause migrants to extend migration and have cascading effects throughout their life cycle. If the heterogeneous nature of climate change results in uneven changes in phenology between migrants and their prey, it may threaten the long-term viability of migratory populations
Hargrove, W. W.; Norman, S. P.; Kumar, J.; Hoffman, F. M.
National-scale polar analysis of MODIS NDVI allows quantification of degree of seasonality expressed by local vegetation, and also selects the most optimum start/end of a local "phenological year" that is empirically customized for the vegetation that is growing at each location. Interannual differences in timing of phenology make direct comparisons of vegetation health and performance between years difficult, whether at the same or different locations. By "sliding" the two phenologies in time using a Procrustean linear time shift, any particular phenological event or "completion milestone" can be synchronized, allowing direct comparison of differences in timing of other remaining milestones. Going beyond a simple linear translation, time can be "rubber-sheeted," compressed or dilated. Considering one phenology curve to be a reference, the second phenology can be "rubber-sheeted" to fit that baseline as well as possible by stretching or shrinking time to match multiple control points, which can be any recognizable phenological events. Similar to "rubber sheeting" to georectify a map inside a GIS, rubber sheeting a phenology curve also yields a warping signature that shows at every time and every location how many days the adjusted phenology is ahead or behind the phenological development of the reference vegetation. Using such temporal methods to "adjust" phenologies may help to quantify vegetation impacts from frost, drought, wildfire, insects and diseases by permitting the most commensurate quantitative comparisons with unaffected vegetation.
Crop phenology is fundamental for understanding crop growth and development, and increasingly influences many agricultural management practices. Water deficits are one environmental factor that can influence crop phenology through shortening or lengthening the developmental phase, yet the phenologic...
Crop phenology is fundamental for understanding crop growth and development, and increasingly influences many agricultural management practices. Water deficits are one environmental factor that can influence crop phenology through shortening or lengthening the developmental phase, yet the phenologic...
Crabbe, Richard A.; Dash, J.; Rodriguez-Galiano, V. F.; Janouš, Dalibor; Pavelka, Marian; Marek, Michal V.
563-564, sep (2016), s. 486-495 ISSN 0048-9697 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : land surface phenology * Envisat MTCI * anomalous temperature * climate variability * lagged effect * forest ecology Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 4.900, year: 2016
Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F
Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics.
Weltzin, J. F.; Losleben, M. V.
Background Periodic plant and animal cycles driven by seasonal variations in climate (i.e., phenology) set the stage for dynamics of ecosystem processes, determine land surface properties, control biosphere-atmosphere interactions, and affect food production, health, conservation, and recreation. Phenological data and models have applications related to scientific research, education and outreach, as well as to stakeholders interested in agriculture, tourism and recreation, human health, and natural resource conservation and management. The predictive potential of phenology requires a new data resource-a national network of integrated phenological observations and the tools to access and analyze them at multiple scales. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) is an emerging and exciting partnership between federal agencies, the academic community, and the general public to monitor and understand the influence of seasonal cycles on the Nation's resources. The USA-NPN will establish a wall-to-wall science and monitoring initiative focused on phenology as a tool to understand how plants, animals and landscapes respond to climate variation, and as a tool to facilitate human adaptation to ongoing and potential future climate change. Results The National Coordinating Office of the USA-NPN began operation in August 2007 at the University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ. This first year of operation produced many new phenology products and venues for phenology research and citizen involvement, as well as identification of future directions for the USA NPN. Products include a new web-site (www.usanpn.org) that went live in June 2008; the web-site includes a tool for on-line data entry, and serves as a clearinghouse for products and information to facilitate research and communication related to phenology. The new core Plant Phenology Program includes profiles for 185 vetted local, regional, and national plant species with descriptions and monitoring protocols, as well as
Zuo, Lu; Wang, Huan Jiong; Liu, Rong Gao; Liu, Yang; Shang, Rong
Vegetation phenology is a comprehensive indictor for the responses of terrestrial ecosystem to climatic and environmental changes. Remote sensing spectrum has been widely used in the extraction of vegetation phenology information. However, there are many differences between phenology extracted by remote sensing and site observations, with their physical meaning remaining unclear. We selected one tile of MODIS data in northeastern China (2000-2014) to examine the SOS and EOS differences derived from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the simple ratio vegetation index (SR) based on both the red and near-infrared bands. The results showed that there were significant differences between NDVI-phenology and SR-phenology. SOS derived from NDVI averaged 18.9 days earlier than that from SR. EOS derived from NDVI averaged 19.0 days later than from SR. NDVI-phenology had a longer growing season. There were significant differences in the inter-annual variation of phenology from NDVI and SR. More than 20% of the pixel SOS and EOS derived from NDVI and SR showed the opposite temporal trend. These results caused by the seasonal curve characteristics and noise resistance differences of NDVI and SR. The observed data source of NDVI and SR were completely consistent, only the mathematical expressions were different, but phenology results were significantly different. Our results indicated that vegetation phenology monitoring by remote sensing is highly dependent on the mathematical expression of vegetation index. How to establish a reliable method for extracting vegetation phenology by remote sensing needs further research.
Phenological transitions have large impacts on ecosystem processes, species interactions, and climate. However, phenology is a critical source of uncertainty in projections of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems and the current generation of ecosystem models are highly variable and biased in their phenology predictions. Most phenological modeling has focused on diagnosing phenological variability and predicting long term responses to climate scenarios. Phenological predictions for the current season, on the other hand, are being made based on long-term means or expert opinion rather than real data. To our knowledge previous research has not applied operational data assimilation approaches to produce operational, real-time forecasts of phenology. We present a phenology forecast data product that is automatically updated every day using current observations and weather forecasts. Specifically we fuse MODIS NDVI and PhenoCam based GCC with a threshold logistic process model at five sites across eastern forests, from North Carolina to New Hampshire. Prior to application, models were calibrated (2000-2012) using a Bayesian state space model. Forecasts for fall 2013, spring 2014, and fall 2014 were then generated on a daily basis using a particle filter. The system successfully tracked seasonal phenology but forecasts showed high uncertainty and sensitivity to alternative model structures. Furthermore, we found that current phenological models in the literature are not formulated in a way that allows for dynamic forecasts. Work remains to be done to extend this work to a fully spatial context. In particular there is a need to determine the spatial range of influence of the tower PhenoCam data and to account for both land cover and random effects. More broadly, this work demonstrates the possibilities for the development of real-time ecological forecasting in other areas.
Nagai, Shin; Nasahara, Kenlo Nishida; Inoue, Tomoharu; Saitoh, Taku M.; Suzuki, Rikie
To accurately evaluate the responses of spatial and temporal variation of ecosystem functioning (evapotranspiration and photosynthesis) and services (regulating and cultural services) to the rapid changes caused by global warming, we depend on long-term, continuous, near-surface, and satellite remote sensing of phenology over wide areas. Here, we review such phenological studies in Japan and discuss our current knowledge, problems, and future developments. In contrast with North America and Europe, Japan has been able to evaluate plant phenology along vertical and horizontal gradients within a narrow area because of the country's high topographic relief. Phenological observation networks that support scientific studies and outreach activities have used near-surface tools such as digital cameras and spectral radiometers. Differences in phenology among ecosystems and tree species have been detected by analyzing the seasonal variation of red, green, and blue digital numbers (RGB values) extracted from phenological images, as well as spectral reflectance and vegetation indices. The relationships between seasonal variations in RGB-derived indices or spectral characteristics and the ecological and CO2 flux measurement data have been well validated. In contrast, insufficient satellite remote-sensing observations have been conducted because of the coarse spatial resolution of previous datasets, which could not detect the heterogeneous plant phenology that results from Japan's complex topography and vegetation. To improve Japanese phenological observations, multidisciplinary analysis and evaluation will be needed to link traditional phenological observations with "index trees," near-surface and satellite remote-sensing observations, "citizen science" (observations by citizens), and results published on the Internet.
Andrew D. Richardson; Ryan S. Anderson; M. Altaf Arain; Alan G. Barr; Gil Bohrer; Guangsheng Chen; Jing M. Chen; Philippe Ciais; Kenneth J. David; Ankur R. Desai; Michael C. Dietze; Danilo Dragoni; Steven R. Garrity; Christopher M. Gough; Robert Grant; David Hollinger; Hank A. Margolis; Harry McCaughey; Mirco Migliavacca; Russel K. Monson; J. William Munger; Benjamin Poulter; Brett M. Raczka; Daniel M. Ricciuto; Alok K. Sahoo; Kevin Schaefer; Hanqin Tian; Rodrigo Vargas; Hans Verbeeck; Jingfeng Xiao; Yongkang. Xue
Phenology, by controlling the seasonal activity of vegetation on the land surface, plays a fundamental role in regulating photosynthesis and other ecosystem processes, as well as competitive interactions and feedbacks to the climate system. We conducted an analysis to evaluate the representation of phenology, and the associated seasonality of ecosystem-scale CO
Boyce, Daniel G; Petrie, Brian; Frank, Kenneth T; Worm, Boris; Leggett, William C
Seasonal cycles of primary production (phenology) critically influence biogeochemical cycles, ecosystem structure and climate. In the oceans, primary production is dominated by microbial phytoplankton that drift with currents, and show rapid turnover and chaotic dynamics, factors that have hindered understanding of their phenology. We used all available observations of upper-ocean phytoplankton concentration (1995-2015) to describe global patterns of phytoplankton phenology, the environmental factors that structure them, and their relationships to terrestrial patterns. Phytoplankton phenologies varied strongly by latitude and productivity regime: those in high-production regimes were governed by insolation, whereas those in low-production regimes were constrained by vertical mixing. In eight of ten ocean regions, our findings contradict the hypothesis that phytoplankton phenologies are coherent at basin scales. Lastly, the spatial organization of phenological patterns in the oceans was broadly similar to those on land, suggesting an overarching effect of insolation on the phenology of primary producers globally.
Hanes, Jonathan M
Spring leaf phenology in temperate climates is intricately related to numerous aspects of the lower atmosphere [e.g., surface energy balance, carbon flux, humidity, the diurnal temperature range (DTR)]. To further develop and improve the accuracy of ecosystem and climate models, additional investigations of the specific nature of the relationships between spring leaf phenology and various ecosystem and climate processes are required in different environments. This study used visual observations of maple leaf phenology, below-canopy light intensities, and micrometeorological data collected during the spring seasons of 2008, 2009, and 2010 to examine the potential influence of leaf phenology on a seasonal transition in the trend of the DTR. The timing of a reversal in the DTR trend occurred near the time when the leaves were unfolding and expanding. The results suggest that the spring decline in the DTR can be attributed primarily to the effect of canopy closure on daily maximum temperature. These findings improve our understanding of the relationship between leaf phenology and the diurnal temperature range in temperate maple forests during the spring. They also demonstrate the necessity of incorporating accurate phenological data into ecosystem and climate models and warrant a careful examination of the extent to which canopy phenology is currently incorporated into existing models.
Romo-Leon, Jose Raul; van Leeuwen, Willem J. D.; Castellanos-Villegas, Alejandro
The overexploitation of water resources in arid environments often results in abandonment of large extensions of agricultural lands, which may (1) modify phenological trends, and (2) alter the sensitivity of specific phenophases to environmental triggers. In Mexico, current governmental policies subsidize restoration efforts, to address ecological degradation caused by abandonments; however, there is a need for new approaches to assess their effectiveness. Addressing this, we explore a method to monitor and assess (1) land surface phenology trends in arid agro-ecosystems, and (2) the effect of climatic factors and restoration treatments on the phenology of abandoned agricultural fields. We used 16-day normalized difference vegetation index composites from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer from 2000 to 2009 to derive seasonal phenometrics. We then derived phenoclimatic variables and land cover thematic maps, to serve as a set of independent factors that influence vegetation phenology. We conducted a multivariate analysis of variance to analyze phenological trends among land cover types, and developed multiple linear regression models to assess influential climatic factors driving phenology per land cover analyzed. Our results suggest that the start and length of the growing season had different responses to environmental factors depending on land cover type. Our analysis also suggests possible establishment of arid adapted species (from surrounding ecosystems) in abandoned fields with longer times since abandonment. Using this approach, we were able increase our understanding on how climatic factors influence phenology on degraded arid agro-ecosystems, and how this systems evolve after disturbance.
Wang, C.; Jing, L.; Qinhuo, L.
Land surface phenology can make up for the deficiency of field observation with advantages of capturing the continuous expression of phenology on a large scale. However, there are some variability in phenological metrics derived from different satellite time-series data of vegetation parameters. This paper aims at assessing the difference of phenology information extracted from EVI and LAI time series. To achieve this, some web-camera sites were selected to analyze the characteristics between MODIS-EVI and MODIS-LAI time series from 2010 to 2014 for different forest types, including evergreen coniferous forest, evergreen broadleaf forest, deciduous coniferous forest and deciduous broadleaf forest. At the same time, satellite-based phenological metrics were extracted by the Logistics algorithm and compared with camera-based phenological metrics. Results show that the SOS and EOS that are extracted from LAI are close to bud burst and leaf defoliation respectively, while the SOS and EOS that are extracted from EVI is close to leaf unfolding and leaf coloring respectively. Thus the SOS that is extracted from LAI is earlier than that from EVI, while the EOS that is extracted from LAI is later than that from EVI at deciduous forest sites. Although the seasonal variation characteristics of evergreen forests are not apparent, significant discrepancies exist in LAI time series and EVI time series. In addition, Satellite- and camera-based phenological metrics agree well generally, but EVI has higher correlation with the camera-based canopy greenness (green chromatic coordinate, gcc) than LAI.
J. M. Capron
The 100-B-23, 100-B/C Surface Debris, waste consisted of multiple locations of surface debris and chemical stains that were identified during an Orphan Site Evaluation of the 100-B/C Area. Evaluation of the collected information for the surface debris features yielded four generic waste groupings: asbestos-containing material, lead debris, oil and oil filters, and treated wood. Focused verification sampling was performed concurrently with remediation. Site remediation was accomplished by selective removal of the suspect hazardous items and potentially impacted soils. In accordance with this evaluation, the verification sampling results support a reclassification of this site to Interim Closed Out. The results of verification sampling show that residual contaminant concentrations do not preclude any future uses and allow for unrestricted use of shallow zone soils. The results also demonstrate that residual contaminant concentrations are protective of groundwater and the Columbia River.
Wolf, Amelia A.; Zavaleta, Erika S; Selmants, Paul C.
Observational studies and experimental evidence agree that rising global temperatures have altered plant phenology—the timing of life events, such as flowering, germination, and leaf-out. Other large-scale global environmental changes, such as nitrogen deposition and altered precipitation regimes, have also been linked to changes in flowering times. Despite our increased understanding of how abiotic factors influence plant phenology, we know very little about how biotic interactions can affect flowering times, a significant knowledge gap given ongoing human-caused alteration of biodiversity and plant community structure at the global scale. We experimentally manipulated plant diversity in a California serpentine grassland and found that many plant species flowered earlier in response to reductions in diversity, with peak flowering date advancing an average of 0.6 days per species lost. These changes in phenology were mediated by the effects of plant diversity on soil surface temperature, available soil N, and soil moisture. Peak flowering dates were also more dispersed among species in high-diversity plots than expected based on monocultures. Our findings illustrate that shifts in plant species composition and diversity can alter the timing and distribution of flowering events, and that these changes to phenology are similar in magnitude to effects induced by climate change. Declining diversity could thus contribute to or exacerbate phenological changes attributed to rising global temperatures.
Radville, Laura; McCormack, M Luke; Post, Eric; Eissenstat, David M
Plant phenology is one of the strongest indicators of ecological responses to climate change, and altered phenology can have pronounced effects on net primary production, species composition in local communities, greenhouse gas fluxes, and ecosystem processes. Although many studies have shown that aboveground plant phenology advances with warmer temperatures, demonstration of a comparable association for belowground phenology has been lacking because the factors that influence root phenology are poorly understood. Because roots can constitute a large fraction of plant biomass, and root phenology may not respond to warming in the same way as shoots, this represents an important knowledge gap in our understanding of how climate change will influence phenology and plant performance. We review studies of root phenology and provide suggestions to direct future research. Only 29% of examined studies approached root phenology quantitatively, strongly limiting interpretation of results across studies. Therefore, we suggest that researchers emphasize quantitative analyses in future phenological studies. We suggest that root initiation, peak growth, and root cessation may be under different controls. Root initiation and cessation may be more constrained by soil temperature and the timing of carbon availability, whereas the timing of peak root growth may represent trade-offs among competing plant sinks. Roots probably do not experience winter dormancy in the same way as shoots: 89% of the studies that examined winter phenology found evidence of growth during winter months. More research is needed to observe root phenology, and future studies should be careful to capture winter and early season phenology. This should be done quantitatively, with direct observations of root growth utilizing rhizotrons or minirhizotrons. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email
Thomas, Kathryn A.; Fornwall, Mark D.; Weltzin, Jake F.; Griffis, R.B.
Among the many effects of climate change is its influence on the phenology of biota. In marine and coastal ecosystems, phenological shifts have been documented for multiple life forms; however, biological data related to marine species' phenology remain difficult to access and is under-used. We conducted an assessment of potential sources of biological data for marine species and their availability for use in phenological analyses and assessments. Our evaluations showed that data potentially related to understanding marine species' phenology are available through online resources of governmental, academic, and non-governmental organizations, but appropriate datasets are often difficult to discover and access, presenting opportunities for scientific infrastructure improvement. The developing Federal Marine Data Architecture when fully implemented will improve data flow and standardization for marine data within major federal repositories and provide an archival repository for collaborating academic and public data contributors. Another opportunity, largely untapped, is the engagement of citizen scientists in standardized collection of marine phenology data and contribution of these data to established data flows. Use of metadata with marine phenology related keywords could improve discovery and access to appropriate datasets. When data originators choose to self-publish, publication of research datasets with a digital object identifier, linked to metadata, will also improve subsequent discovery and access. Phenological changes in the marine environment will affect human economics, food systems, and recreation. No one source of data will be sufficient to understand these changes. The collective attention of marine data collectors is needed—whether with an agency, an educational institution, or a citizen scientist group—toward adopting the data management processes and standards needed to ensure availability of sufficient and useable marine data to understand
Melaas, Eli K; Friedl, Mark A; Richardson, Andrew D
Phenological events, such as bud burst, are strongly linked to ecosystem processes in temperate deciduous forests. However, the exact nature and magnitude of how seasonal and interannual variation in air temperatures influence phenology is poorly understood, and model-based phenology representations fail to capture local- to regional-scale variability arising from differences in species composition. In this paper, we use a combination of surface meteorological data, species composition maps, remote sensing, and ground-based observations to estimate models that better represent how community-level species composition affects the phenological response of deciduous broadleaf forests to climate forcing at spatial scales that are typically used in ecosystem models. Using time series of canopy greenness from repeat digital photography, citizen science data from the USA National Phenology Network, and satellite remote sensing-based observations of phenology, we estimated and tested models that predict the timing of spring leaf emergence across five different deciduous broadleaf forest types in the eastern United States. Specifically, we evaluated two different approaches: (i) using species-specific models in combination with species composition information to 'upscale' model predictions and (ii) using repeat digital photography of forest canopies that observe and integrate the phenological behavior of multiple representative species at each camera site to calibrate a single model for all deciduous broadleaf forests. Our results demonstrate variability in cumulative forcing requirements and photoperiod cues across species and forest types, and show how community composition influences phenological dynamics over large areas. At the same time, the response of different species to spatial and interannual variation in weather is, under the current climate regime, sufficiently similar that the generic deciduous forest model based on repeat digital photography performed
Henebry, G. M.
Phenology is about observing events in time and space. With the advent of publically accessible geospatial datastreams and easy to use mapping software, specifying where an event occurs is much less of a challenge than it was just two decades ago. In contrast, specifying when an event occurs remains a nontrivial function of a population of organismal responses, sampling interval, compositing period, and reporting precision. I explore how aoristic analysis can be used to analyzing spatiotemporal events for which the location is known to acceptable levels of precision but for which temporal coordinates are poorly specified or only partially bounded. Aoristic analysis was developed in the late 1990s in the field of quantitative criminology to leverage temporally imprecise geospatial data of crime reports. Here I demonstrate how aoristic analysis can be used to link remotely sensed observations of land surface phenology to ground-level observations of organismal phenophase transitions. Explicit representation of the windows of temporal uncertainty with aoristic weights enables cross-validation exercises and forecasting efforts to avoid false precision.
Stuart E. Marsh
Full Text Available Climate change and variability are expected to impact the synchronicity and interactions between the Sonoran Desert and the forested sky islands which represent steep biological and environmental gradients. The main objectives were to examine how well satellite greenness time series data and derived phenological metrics (e.g., season start, peak greenness can characterize specific vegetation communities across an elevation gradient, and to examine the interactions between climate and phenological metrics for each vegetation community. We found that representative vegetation types (11, varying between desert scrub, mesquite, grassland, mixed oak, juniper and pine, often had unique seasonal and interannual phenological trajectories and spatial patterns. Satellite derived land surface phenometrics (11 for each of the vegetation communities along the cline showed numerous distinct significant relationships in response to temperature (4 and precipitation (7 metrics. Satellite-derived sky island vegetation phenology can help assess and monitor vegetation dynamics and provide unique indicators of climate variability and patterns of change.
Keenan, T F; Darby, B; Felts, E; Sonnentag, O; Friedl, M A; Hufkens, K; O'Keef, J; Klosterman, S; Munger, J W; Toome, M; Richardson, A D
Digital repeat photography is becoming widely used for near-surface remote sensing of vegetation. Canopy greenness, which has been used extensively for phenological applications, can be readily quantified from camera images. Important questions remain, however, as to whether the observed changes in canopy greenness are directly related to changes in leaf-level traits, changes in canopy structure, or some combination thereof. We investigated relationships between canopy greenness and various metrics of canopy structure and function, using five years (2008–2012) of automated digital imagery, ground observations of phenological transitions, leaf area index (LAI) measurements, and eddy covariance estimates of gross ecosystem photosynthesis from the Harvard Forest, a temperate deciduous forest in the northeastern United States. Additionally, we sampled canopy sunlit leaves on a weekly basis throughout the growing season of 2011. We measured physiological and morphological traits including leaf size, mass (wet/dry), nitrogen content, chlorophyll fluorescence, and spectral reflectance and characterized individual leaf color with flatbed scanner imagery. Our results show that observed spring and autumn phenological transition dates are well captured by information extracted from digital repeat photography. However, spring development of both LAI and the measured physiological and morphological traits are shown to lag behind spring increases in canopy greenness, which rises very quickly to its maximum value before leaves are even half their final size. Based on the hypothesis that changes in canopy greenness represent the aggregate effect of changes in both leaf-level properties (specifically, leaf color) and changes in canopy structure (specifically, LAI), we developed a two end-member mixing model. With just a single free parameter, the model was able to reproduce the observed seasonal trajectory of canopy greenness. This analysis shows that canopy greenness is
Roy, A.; Sonnentag, O.; Pappas, C.; Mavrovic, A.; Royer, A.; Berg, A. A.; Rowlandson, T. L.; Lemay, J.; Helgason, W.; Barr, A.; Black, T. A.; Derksen, C.; Toose, P.
The boreal forest is the second largest land biome in the world and thus plays a major role in the global and regional climate systems. The extent, timing and duration of seasonal freeze/thaw (F/T) state influences vegetation developmental stages (phenology) and, consequently, constitute an important control on how boreal forest ecosystems exchange carbon, water and energy with the atmosphere. The effective retrieval of seasonal F/T state from L-Band radiometry was demonstrated using satellite mission. However, disentangling the seasonally differing contributions from forest overstory and understory vegetation, and the soil surface to the satellite signal remains challenging. Here we present initial results from a radiometer field campaign to improve our understanding of the L-Band derived boreal forest F/T signal and vegetation phenology. Two L-Band surface-based radiometers (SBR) are installed on a micrometeorological tower at the Southern Old Black Spruce site in central Saskatchewan over the 2016-2017 F/T season. One radiometer unit is installed on the flux tower so it views forest including all overstory and understory vegetation and the moss-covered ground surface. A second radiometer unit is installed within the boreal forest overstory, viewing the understory and the ground surface. The objectives of our study are (i) to disentangle the L-Band F/T signal contribution of boreal forest overstory from the understory and ground surface, (ii) to link the L-Band F/T signal to related boreal forest structural and functional characteristics, and (iii) to investigate the use of the L-Band signal to characterize boreal forest carbon, water and energy fluxes. The SBR observations above and within the forest canopy are used to retrieve the transmissivity (γ) and the scattering albedo (ω), two parameters that describe the emission of the forest canopy though the F/T season. These two forest parameters are compared with boreal forest structural and functional
Wu, J.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Hayek, M.; Stark, S. C.; Smith, M.; Wiedemann, K.; Marostica, S.; Ferreira, M.; Woodcock, T.; Prohaska, N.; da Silva, R.; Nelson, B. W.; Huete, A. R.; Saleska, S. R.
Seasonal and interannual patterns of leaf development and metabolism are a central topic of global change ecology. However, the seasonality of leaf development in tropical forests remains poorly understood due to the relatively low variation in climate, the high biodiversity of tropical biomes and the limitations of current observation techniques. In this study, we aim to demonstrate the feasibility of using near-surface remote sensing techniques to understand the phenology of an evergreen tropical forest (Tapajos National Forest or TNF site, Santarem, Para, Brazil), and how this phenology affects the metabolism of tropical vegetation. Two continuous years (2010-2011) of daily images from a tower mounted three-channel (red, green, and near-infrared) TetraCAM ADC camera were analyzed for this study. A new approach was developed based on an automatic image classification scheme which decomposed the images into two components (leaves and bare wood) to extract seasonality of leaf development. A confusion matrix method was used to assess the accuracy of image classification. MODIS EVI composites (MOD13Q1) were also acquired and processed for the TNF site (5km*5km). The camera based phenology information was first compared with MODIS EVI, and then combined with tower based eddy covariance measurements at the same site to quantify the effect of canopy-scale phenology on ecosystem metabolism. We found that: (1) Tower-based images revealed a clear seasonal pattern in leaf phenology that was supported by confusion matrix analysis. Matrix analysis gave a 96.7% user accuracy (user accuracy represents the probability that an image pixel classification actually corresponds to that category on the ground) for the leaf component, based on 24 images in 2010 (2 images per month). The tower-based pattern matched that retrieved from satellites (camera-sensed leaf phenology vs monthly MODIS EVI (01/2010-12/2011, R2=0.57, P-valuesatellite and tower were robust to changes in solar zenith
Land surface vegetation phenology is an efficient bio-indicator for monitoring ecosystem variation in response to changes in climatic factors. The primary objective of the current article is to examine the utility of the daily MODIS 500 m reflectance anisotropy direct broadcast (DB) product for monitoring the evolution of vegetation phenological trends over selected crop, orchard, and forest regions. Although numerous model-fitted satellite data have been widely used to assess the spatio-temporal distribution of land surface phenological patterns to understand phenological process and phenomena, current efforts to investigate the details of phenological trends, especially for natural phenological variations that occur on short time scales, are less well served by remote sensing challenges and lack of anisotropy correction in satellite data sources. The daily MODIS 500 m reflectance anisotropy product is employed to retrieve daily vegetation indices (VI) of a 1 year period for an almond orchard in California and for a winter wheat field in northeast China, as well as a 2 year period for a deciduous forest region in New Hampshire, USA. Compared with the ground records from these regions, the VI trajectories derived from the cloud-free and atmospherically corrected MODIS Nadir BRDF (bidirectional reflectance distribution function) adjusted reflectance (NBAR) capture not only the detailed footprint and principal attributes of the phenological events (such as flowering and blooming) but also the substantial inter-annual variability. This study demonstrates the utility of the daily 500 m MODIS reflectance anisotropy DB product to provide daily VI for monitoring and detecting changes of the natural vegetation phenology as exemplified by study regions comprising winter wheat, almond trees, and deciduous forest.
Talbert, Colin; Kern, Tim J.; Morisette, Jeff; Brown, Don; James, Kevin
implementing long-term conservation plans). In either case, it is important to first grasp the magnitude of natural variation so that it is not confused with actual trends. This work used existing and freely available remote sensing data, specifically the NASA-funded 250-meter (m) spatial resolution land-surface phenology product for North America. This product is calculated from an annual record of vegetation health observed by NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument. The land-surface phenology product is, in essence, a method to summarize all the observations throughout a year into a few key, ecologically relevant “metrics”.
Donnelly, Alison; Yu, Rong
In recent decades, phenology has become an important tool by which to measure both the impact of climate change on ecosystems and the feedback of ecosystems to the climate system. However, there has been little attempt to date to systematically quantify the increase in the number of scientific publications with a focus on phenology and climate change. In order to partially address this issue, we examined the number of articles (original papers, reviews and short communications) containing the terms 'phenology' and 'climate change' in the title, abstract or keywords, published in the International Journal of Biometeorology in the 60 years since its inception in 1957. We manually inspected all issues prior to 1987 for the search terms and subsequently used the search facility on the Web of Science online database. The overall number of articles published per decade remained relatively constant (255-378) but rose rapidly to 1053 in the most recent decade (2007-2016), accompanied by an increase (41-172) in the number of articles containing the search terms. A number of factors may have contributed to this rise, including the recognition of the value of phenology as an indicator of climate change and the initiation in 2010 of a series of conferences focusing on phenology which subsequently led to two special issues of the journal. The word 'phenology' was in use from the first issue, whereas 'climate change' only emerged in 1987 and peaked in 2014. New technologies such as satellite remote sensing and the internet led to an expansion of and greater access to a growing reservoir of phenological information. The application of phenological data included determining the impact of warming of phenophases, predicting wine quality and the pollen season, demonstrating the potential for mismatch to occur and both reconstructing and forecasting climate. Even though this analysis was limited to one journal, it is likely to be indicative of a similar trend across other scientific
Donnelly, Alison; Yu, Rong
In recent decades, phenology has become an important tool by which to measure both the impact of climate change on ecosystems and the feedback of ecosystems to the climate system. However, there has been little attempt to date to systematically quantify the increase in the number of scientific publications with a focus on phenology and climate change. In order to partially address this issue, we examined the number of articles (original papers, reviews and short communications) containing the terms `phenology' and `climate change' in the title, abstract or keywords, published in the International Journal of Biometeorology in the 60 years since its inception in 1957. We manually inspected all issues prior to 1987 for the search terms and subsequently used the search facility on the Web of Science online database. The overall number of articles published per decade remained relatively constant (255-378) but rose rapidly to 1053 in the most recent decade (2007-2016), accompanied by an increase (41-172) in the number of articles containing the search terms. A number of factors may have contributed to this rise, including the recognition of the value of phenology as an indicator of climate change and the initiation in 2010 of a series of conferences focusing on phenology which subsequently led to two special issues of the journal. The word `phenology' was in use from the first issue, whereas `climate change' only emerged in 1987 and peaked in 2014. New technologies such as satellite remote sensing and the internet led to an expansion of and greater access to a growing reservoir of phenological information. The application of phenological data included determining the impact of warming of phenophases, predicting wine quality and the pollen season, demonstrating the potential for mismatch to occur and both reconstructing and forecasting climate. Even though this analysis was limited to one journal, it is likely to be indicative of a similar trend across other scientific
Connie Harrington; Kevin Ford; Brad St. Clair
Phenology is the study of the timing of recurring biological events. For foresters, the most commonly observed phenological events are budburst, flowering, and leaf fall, but other harder to observe events, such as diameter-growth initiation, are also important. Most events that occur in the spring are influenced by past exposure to cool (chilling) temperatures and...
Andrew K G Jones
Full Text Available The four papers in this issue represent a trawl of the reports presented to the Fourth meeting of the International Council for Archaeozoology (ICAZ Fish Remains Working Group, which met at the University of York in 1987. The conference discussed material from many parts of the world - from Australasia to the north-west coast of America - and many eras, ranging in date from the early Pleistocene to the 1980s. It demonstrated both the variety of work being carried out and the growing interest in ancient fish remains. Internet Archaeology plans to publish other batches of papers from this conference. These reports will demonstrate the effort being made to distinguish between assemblages of fish remains which have been deposited by people and those which occur in ancient deposits as a result of the action of other agents. To investigate this area, experiments with modern material and observations of naturally occurring fish bone assemblages are supplemented with detailed analysis of ancient and modern fish remains. The papers published here illustrate the breadth of research into osteology, biogeography, documentary research, and the practicalities of recovering fish remains. Read, digest and enjoy them! Using the Internet for publishing research papers is not only ecologically sound (saving paper, etc. it disseminates scholarship to anyone anywhere on the planet with access to what is gradually becoming necessary technology in the late 20th century. Hopefully, future groups of papers will include video and audio material recorded at the conference, and so enable those who could not attend to gain further insights into the meeting and the scholarship underpinning this area of research.
Barata, Raquel A.; Drewry, Darren
The Multi-Layer Canopy Model (MLCan) is a vegetation model created to capture plant responses to environmental change. Themodel vertically resolves carbon uptake, water vapor and energy exchange at each canopy level by coupling photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and leaf energy balance. The model is forced by incoming shortwave and longwave radiation, as well as near-surface meteorological conditions. The original formulation of MLCan utilized canopy structural traits derived from observations. This project aims to incorporate a plant phenology scheme within MLCan allowing these structural traits to vary dynamically. In the plant phenology scheme implemented here, plant growth is dependent on environmental conditions such as air temperature and soil moisture. The scheme includes functionality that models plant germination, growth, and senescence. These growth stages dictate the variation in six different vegetative carbon pools: storage, leaves, stem, coarse roots, fine roots, and reproductive. The magnitudes of these carbon pools determine land surface parameters such as leaf area index, canopy height, rooting depth and root water uptake capacity. Coupling this phenology scheme with MLCan allows for a more flexible representation of the structure and function of vegetation as it responds to changing environmental conditions.
Wang, Cong; Li, Jing; Liu, Qinhuo; Zhong, Bo; Wu, Shanlong; Xia, Chuanfu
Remote-sensing phenology detection can compensate for deficiencies in field observations and has the advantage of capturing the continuous expression of phenology on a large scale. However, there is some variability in the results of remote-sensing phenology detection derived from different vegetation parameters in satellite time-series data. Since the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and the leaf area index (LAI) are the most widely used vegetation parameters for remote-sensing phenology extraction, this paper aims to assess the differences in phenological information extracted from EVI and LAI time series and to explore whether either index performs well for all vegetation types on a large scale. To this end, a GLASS (Global Land Surface Satellite Product)-LAI-based phenology product (GLP) was generated using the same algorithm as the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)-EVI phenology product (MLCD) over China from 2001 to 2012. The two phenology products were compared in China for different vegetation types and evaluated using ground observations. The results show that the ratio of missing data is 8.3% for the GLP, which is less than the 22.8% for the MLCD. The differences between the GLP and the MLCD become stronger as the latitude decreases, which also vary among different vegetation types. The start of the growing season (SOS) of the GLP is earlier than that of the MLCD in most vegetation types, and the end of the growing season (EOS) of the GLP is generally later than that of the MLCD. Based on ground observations, it can be suggested that the GLP performs better than the MLCD in evergreen needleleaved forests and croplands, while the MLCD performs better than the GLP in shrublands and grasslands.
Minozzi, Simona; Fornaciari, Gino
Many diseases induce alterations in the human skeleton, leaving traces of their presence in ancient remains. Paleopathological examination of human remains not only allows the study of the history and evolution of the disease, but also the reconstruction of health conditions in the past populations. This paper describes the most interesting diseases observed in skeletal samples from the Roman Imperial Age necropoles found in urban and suburban areas of Rome during archaeological excavations in the last decades. The diseases observed were grouped into the following categories: articular diseases, traumas, infections, metabolic or nutritional diseases, congenital diseases and tumours, and some examples are reported for each group. Although extensive epidemiological investigation in ancient skeletal records is impossible, the palaeopathological study allowed to highlight the spread of numerous illnesses, many of which can be related to the life and health conditions of the Roman population.
Blume-Werry, G.; Milbau, A.; Kreyling, J.; Wilson, S. D.
The length of the growing season is usually determined from aboveground phenology, but our understanding of seasonal root growth and its coupling to shoot growth remains rudimentary. In many ecosystems the majority of plant biomass is belowground, and insights into belowground growth patterns are important for predicting arctic ecosystem responses to global change. We measured root and shoot phenology, with minirhizotrons and digital photography, over the growing season in three common vegetation types along an altitude gradient in northern Sweden. In addition, soil temperature and soil moisture were measured to assess the influence of abiotic factors. The growing season belowground was 35% longer than aboveground, with shoot growth ending 2 weeks prior to root growth. The largest time lag between the end of the growing season below and above the ground (25 days) occurred in birch forest at the lowest elevation. Fine root production was more evenly distributed throughout the season in the forest compared with the higher elevations. The importance of soil temperature and photoperiod in governing root growth increased with increasing elevation. Our results show that the overall growing season length at high latitudes is severely underestimated if aboveground phenology is used as the single indicator for seasonal plant productivity. This has important implications for modeling responses of tundra ecosystems to global change, in which roots are the main source of carbon in the soil, and which play a key role in global carbon storage.
Rico Gazal; Michael A. White; Robert Gillies; Eli Rodemakers; Elena Sparrow; Leslie. Gordon
The urban heat island effect, classically associated with high impervious surface area (ISA), low vegetation fractional cover (Fr), and high land surface temperature (LST), has been linked to changing patterns of vegetation phenology, especially spring growth. In this study, a collaboration with the Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE)...
Rosemartin, Alyssa H.; Denny, Ellen G.; Gerst, Katharine L.; Marsh, R. Lee; Posthumus, Erin E.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Weltzin, Jake
The goals of the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN, www.usanpn.org) are to advance science, inform decisions, and communicate and connect with the public regarding phenology and species’ responses to environmental variation and climate change. The USA-NPN seeks to advance the science of phenology and facilitate ecosystem stewardship by providing phenological information freely and openly. To accomplish these goals, the USA-NPN National Coordinating Office (NCO) delivers observational data on plant and animal phenology in several formats, including minimally processed status and intensity datasets and derived phenometrics for individual plants, sites, and regions. This document describes the suite of observational data products delivered by the USA National Phenology Network, covering the period 2009–present for the United States and accessible via the Phenology Observation Portal (http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F78S4N1V) and via an Application Programming Interface. The data described here have been used in diverse research and management applications, including over 30 publications in fields such as remote sensing, plant evolution, and resource management.
Koster, Randal; Walker, G.; Thornton, Patti; Collatz, G. J.
The connection between phenological and hydroclimatological variations are quantified through joint analyses of global NDVI, LAI, and precipitation datasets. The global distributions of both NDVI and LAI in the warm season are strongly controlled by three quantities: mean annual precipitation, the standard deviation of annual precipitation, and Budyko's index of dryness. Upon demonstrating that these same basic (if biased) relationships are produced by a dynamic vegetation model (the dynamic vegetation and carbon storage components of the NCAR Community Land Model version 4 combined with the water and energy balance framework of the Catchment Land Surface Model of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office), we use the model to perform a sensitivity study focusing on how phenology and carbon flux might respond to climatic change. The offline (decoupled from the atmosphere) simulations show us, for example, where on the globe a given small increment in precipitation mean or variability would have the greatest impact on carbon uptake. The analysis framework allows us in addition to quantify the degree to which climatic biases in a free-running GCM are manifested as biases in simulated phenology.
Tan, Bin; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Wolfe, Robert E.; Gao, Feng; Ederer, Gregory A.; Nightingale, Joanne; Pedelty, Jeffrey A.
An enhanced TIMESAT algorithm was developed for retrieving vegetation phenology metrics from 250 m and 500 m spatial resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indexes (VI) over North America. MODIS VI data were pre-processed using snow-cover and land surface temperature data, and temporally smoothed with the enhanced TIMESAT algorithm. An objective third derivative test was applied to define key phenology dates and retrieve a set of phenology metrics. This algorithm has been applied to two MODIS VIs: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). In this paper, we describe the algorithm and use EVI as an example to compare three sets of TIMESAT algorithm/MODIS VI combinations: a) original TIMESAT algorithm with original MODIS VI, b) original TIMESAT algorithm with pre-processed MODIS VI, and c) enhanced TIMESAT and pre-processed MODIS VI. All retrievals were compared with ground phenology observations, some made available through the National Phenology Network. Our results show that for MODIS data in middle to high latitude regions, snow and land surface temperature information is critical in retrieving phenology metrics from satellite observations. The results also show that the enhanced TIMESAT algorithm can better accommodate growing season start and end dates that vary significantly from year to year. The TIMESAT algorithm improvements contribute to more spatial coverage and more accurate retrievals of the phenology metrics. Among three sets of TIMESAT/MODIS VI combinations, the start of the growing season metric predicted by the enhanced TIMESAT algorithm using pre-processed MODIS VIs has the best associations with ground observed vegetation greenup dates.
Richardson, A. D.; Friedl, M. A.; Frolking, S.; Pless, R.; PhenoCam Collaborators
The term phenology refers to both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, such as when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to year-to-year variation in weather as well as longer-term changes in climate, particularly as related to temperature and precipitation. Understanding and predicting the impacts of climate change on plants and ecosystems requires better data with which predictive models of phenology can be developed and tested. PhenoCam uses networked, digital cameras as multi-channel imaging sensors to track the seasonal dynamics of terrestrial vegetation across a range of ecosystem types. The original network, which began in 2006 as a project focusing on the northeast region, consists of a dozen cameras deployed at pre-existing long term research sites. At eight of these sites, cameras are co-located with eddy covariance instrumentation with which surface-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, water and energy are being measured. This provides opportunities for investigating relationships between phenology and ecosystem function and climate system feedbacks. We plan to expand PhenoCam from a regional network to a continental-scale observatory. We will deploy 20 additional cameras at FLUXNET sites across North America, spanning a wide range of vegetation types. We will further explore the feasibility of exploiting information related to phenology from an existing image archive of approximately 17,000 publicly available cameras located across the continent. We will use computer vision and machine learning approaches to develop new processing algorithms for this imagery, and will link these data products both to ground observations by USA-National Phenology Network "citizen scientists" and various satellite-based data streams, e.g. the MODIS phenology product. This project will develop predictions of how phenology may be affected by future climate change
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Lake and River Ice Phenology Database contains freeze and thaw/breakup dates as well as other descriptive ice cover data for 865 lakes and rivers in the...
Silva, T. S. F.; Torres, R. S.; Morellato, P.
Vegetation phenology is a key component of ecosystem function and biogeochemical cycling, and highly susceptible to climatic change. Phenological knowledge in the tropics is limited by lack of monitoring, traditionally done by laborious direct observation. Ground-based digital cameras can automate daily observations, but also offer limited spatial coverage. Imaging by low-cost Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) combines the fine resolution of ground-based methods with and unprecedented capability for spatial coverage, but challenges remain in producing color-consistent multitemporal images. We evaluated the applicability of multitemporal UAS imaging to monitor phenology in tropical altitudinal grasslands and forests, answering: 1) Can very-high resolution aerial photography from conventional digital cameras be used to reliably monitor vegetative and reproductive phenology? 2) How is UAS monitoring affected by changes in illumination and by sensor physical limitations? We flew imaging missions monthly from Feb-16 to Feb-17, using a UAS equipped with an RGB Canon SX260 camera. Flights were carried between 10am and 4pm, at 120-150m a.g.l., yielding 5-10cm spatial resolution. To compensate illumination changes caused by time of day, season and cloud cover, calibration was attempted using reference targets and empirical models, as well as color space transformations. For vegetative phenological monitoring, multitemporal response was severely affected by changes in illumination conditions, strongly confounding the phenological signal. These variations could not be adequately corrected through calibration due to sensor limitations. For reproductive phenology, the very-high resolution of the acquired imagery allowed discrimination of individual reproductive structures for some species, and its stark colorimetric differences to vegetative structures allowed detection of the reproductive timing on the HSV color space, despite illumination effects. We conclude that reliable
Wingate, Lisa; Ogee, Jerome; Cremonese, Edoardo; Filippa, Gianluca; Mizunuma, Toshie; Migliavacca, Mirco; Plaza-Aguilar, Andres; Wilkinson, Matthew; Grace, John
Plant phenology is orchestrated through subtle changes in photoperiod, temperature and soil moisture. Presently, the exact timing of plant development stages and their response to climate and management practices are crudely represented in land surface models. As visual observations of phenology are laborious, there is a need to supplement long-term observations with automated techniques such as those provided by digital repeat photography at high temporal and spatial resolution. We present the first synthesis from a growing observational network of digital cameras installed on flux towers across Europe above deciduous and evergreen forests as well as grasslands and croplands. Using colour indices from digital images and newly developed algorithms, we explored whether key changes in canopy phenology could be detected automatically across different land use types in the network. Our initial results indicate that a piecewise regression approach can capture the start and end of the growing season well, in addition to striking changes in colour signals caused by flowering and management practices such as mowing. We also investigated whether the seasonal patterns of red, green and blue colour fractions derived from digital images could be modelled mechanistically using the canopy radiative transfer model PROSAIL. This model can be used to simulate the RGB signal at the canopy scale when parameterised with quantitative information on seasonal changes in canopy leaf area and leaf pigment content (chlorophyll and carotenoid concentrations). From a model sensitivity analysis we found that variations in colour fractions, and in particular the spring 'green hump' observed repeatedly in deciduous broadleaf canopies across the network, seem essentially dominated by changes in pigment concentrations (chlorophyll and carotenoids). Using the model we were also able to explain why this spring maximum in green signal is often observed out of phase with the maximum period of canopy
Cola, G; Failla, O; Maghradze, D; Megrelidze, L; Mariani, L
While the climate of Western Europe has been deeply affected by the abrupt climate change that took place in the late '1980s of the twentieth century, a similar signal is detected only few years later, in 1994, in Georgia. Grapevine phenology is deeply influenced by climate and this paper aimed to analyze how phenological timing changed before and after the climatic change of 1994. Availability of thermal resources in the two climatic phases for the five altitudinal belts in the 0-1250-m range was analyzed. A phenological dataset gathered in two experimental sites during the period 2012-2014, and a suitable thermal dataset was used to calibrate a phenological model based on the normal approach and able to describe BBCH phenological stages 61 (beginning of flowering), 71 (fruit set), and 81 (veraison). Calibration was performed for four relevant Georgian varieties (Mtsvane Kakhuri, Rkatsiteli, Ojaleshi, and Saperavi). The model validation was performed on an independent 3-year dataset gathered in Gorizia (Italy). Furthermore, in the case of variety Rkatsiteli, the model was applied to the 1974-2013 thermal time series in order to obtain phenological maps of the Georgian territory. Results show that after the climate change of 1994, Rkatsiteli showed an advance, more relevant at higher altitudes where the whole increase of thermal resource was effectively translated in phenological advance. For instance the average advance of veraison was 5.9 days for 250-500 m asl belt and 18.1 days for 750-1000 m asl). On the other hand, at lower altitudes, phenological advance was depleted by superoptimal temperatures. As a final result, some suggestions for the adaptation of viticultural practices to the current climatic phase are provided.
Climate change may shift dates of phenological phase of plants. We can even demonstrate changes in plant growth due to climate change by model simulations. Earth warming will accelerate appearance of the phenological phases earlier. However, not only temperature can affect on that, but some other meteorological factors as well.The theoretical implications of climate change is the main goal of the present work using strategic modeling and a 140 years long temperature data set. Analysis of the ...
Koch, E.; Adler, S.; Lipa, W.; Ungersböck, M.; Zach-Hermann, S.
Europe is in the fortunate situation that it has a long tradition in phenological networking: the history of collecting phenological data and using them in climatology has its starting point in 1751 when Carl von Linné outlined in his work Philosophia Botanica methods for compiling annual plant calendars of leaf opening, flowering, fruiting and leaf fall together with climatological observations "so as to show how areas differ". Recently in most European countries, phenological observations have been carried out routinely for more than 50 years by different governmental and non governmental organisations and following different observation guidelines, the data stored at different places in different formats. This has been really hampering pan European studies as one has to address many network operators to get access to the data before one can start to bring them in a uniform style. From 2004 to 2009 the COST-action 725 established a European wide data set of phenological observations. But the deliverables of this COST action was not only the common phenological database and common observation guidelines - COST725 helped to trigger a revival of some old networks and to establish new ones as for instance in Sweden. At the end of 2009 the COST action the database comprised about 8 million data in total from 15 European countries plus the data from the International Phenological Gardens IPG. In January 2010 PEP725 began its work as follow up project with funding from EUMETNET the network of European meteorological services and of ZAMG the Austrian national meteorological service. PEP725 not only will take over the part of maintaining, updating the COST725 database, but also to bring in phenological data from the time before 1951, developing better quality checking procedures and ensuring an open access to the database. An attractive webpage will make phenology and climate impacts on vegetation more visible in the public enabling a monitoring of vegetation development.
Wu, Y.; Guo, L.
Tibetan Plateau has numerous inland lakes and is one of the most sensitive region responding to climate change. Monitoring the change of lake parameters can help us study regional change in climate. Otherwise, lake ice phenology, such as timing of freeze-up, break-up and ice duration, is an important indicator of climate change. So study of ice phenology of lakes in Tibetan Plateau is necessary. Because of the chilly condition, Freezing-thawing process of this region is less disturbed by human factor, but the relevant study in TP is still limited, which call for the use of remote sensing methods. In this study, based on MODIS data, we use reflectance time series in near-infrared band to extract ice phenology of 32 lakes in Tibetan Plateau from 2000 to 2015. The phenology we extracted is the timing of freeze-up start (FUS), freeze-up end (FUE), break-up start (BUS), break-up end (BUE), and the duration of ice cover (ID) and duration of complete ice cover (CID). And the threshold used in temporal profile of each lake is confirmed by the MODIS image itself because of the lack of in-situ data. Then, the spatial and temporal variations of lake ice phenology and the influencing factors of phenology in TP were analyzed. The result shows the method that extract ice phenology from temporal profile is feasible, so it can fill data gaps for lakes which no previous record existed in TP. In general, the temporal and spatial variation of ice phenology is significant; Trend of ice duration and complete ice duration in the north part is increasing; Correlation analysis indicate that climate factors play a more important role in lake ice phenology than local factors, and the surface temperature play a decisive role, especially in the freezing process; Then the linear regression model of lake surface temperature and ice phenology is established, and we found that setting the surface temperature of -4° as the dividing line, lakes in TP can be divided into two parts (North part and
K. Handley; J. Hough-Goldstein; L.M. Hanks; J.G. Millar; V. D' amico
Cerambycid beetles are abundant and diverse in forests, but much about their host relationships and adult behavior remains unknown. Generic blends of synthetic pheromones were used as lures in traps, to assess the species richness, and phenology of cerambycids in forest fragments in northern Delaware. More than 15,000 cerambycid beetles of 69 species were trapped over...
Walters, Annika; Sagrario, María de los Ángeles González; Schindler, Daniel E.
Global change is leading to shifts in the seasonal timing of growth and maturation for primary producers. Remote sensing is increasingly used to measure the timing of primary production in both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, but there is often a poor correlation between these results and direct observations of life-history responses of individual species. One explanation may be that in addition to phenological shifts, global change is also causing shifts in community composition among species with different seasonal timing of growth and maturation. We quantified how shifts in species phenology and in community composition translated into phenological change in a diverse phytoplankton community from 1962-2000. During this time the aggregate community spring-summer phytoplankton peak has shifted 63 days earlier. The mean taxon shift was only 3 days earlier and shifts in taxa phenology explained only 40% of the observed community phenological shift. The remaining community shift was attributed to dominant early season taxa increasing in abundance while a dominant late season taxon decreased in abundance. In diverse producer communities experiencing multiple stressors, changes in species composition must be considered to fully understand and predict shifts in the seasonal timing of primary production.
Duputié, Anne; Rutschmann, Alexis; Ronce, Ophélie; Chuine, Isabelle
Concerns are rising about the capacity of species to adapt quickly enough to climate change. In long-lived organisms such as trees, genetic adaptation is slow, and how much phenotypic plasticity can help them cope with climate change remains largely unknown. Here, we assess whether, where and when phenological plasticity is and will be adaptive in three major European tree species. We use a process-based species distribution model, parameterized with extensive ecological data, and manipulate plasticity to suppress phenological variations due to interannual, geographical and trend climate variability, under current and projected climatic conditions. We show that phenological plasticity is not always adaptive and mostly affects fitness at the margins of the species' distribution and climatic niche. Under current climatic conditions, phenological plasticity constrains the northern range limit of oak and beech and the southern range limit of pine. Under future climatic conditions, phenological plasticity becomes strongly adaptive towards the trailing edges of beech and oak, but severely constrains the range and niche of pine. Our results call for caution when interpreting geographical variation in trait means as adaptive, and strongly point towards species distribution models explicitly taking phenotypic plasticity into account when forecasting species distribution under climate change scenarios. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Meier, Gretchen A.; Brown, Jesslyn F.; Evelsizer, Ross J.; Vogelmann, James E.
Trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) occurs over wide geographical, latitudinal, elevational, and environmental gradients, making it a favorable candidate for a study of phenology and climate relationships. Aspen forests and woodlands provide numerous ecosystem services, such as high primary productivity and biodiversity, retention and storage of environmental variables (precipitation, temperature, snow–water equivalent) that affect the spring and fall phenology of the aspen woodland communities of southwestern Colorado. We assessed the land surface phenology of aspen woodlands using two phenology indices, start of season time (SOST) and end of season time (EOST), from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) database of conterminous U.S. phenological indicators over an 11-year time period (2001–2011). These indicators were developed with 250 m resolution remotely sensed data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer processed to highlight vegetation response. We compiled data on SOST, EOST, elevation, precipitation, air temperature, and snow water equivalent (SWE) for selected sites having more than 80% cover by aspen woodland communities. In the 11-year time frame of our study, EOST had significant positive correlation with minimum fall temperature and significant negative correlation with fall precipitation. SOST had a significant positive correlation with spring SWE and spring maximum temperature.
Lynda E Chambers
Full Text Available Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand, South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias, although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially
Chambers, Lynda E.; Altwegg, Res; Barbraud, Christophe; Barnard, Phoebe; Beaumont, Linda J.; Crawford, Robert J. M.; Durant, Joel M.; Hughes, Lesley; Keatley, Marie R.; Low, Matt; Morellato, Patricia C.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Ruoppolo, Valeria; Vanstreels, Ralph E. T.; Woehler, Eric J.; Wolfaardt, Anton C.
Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically
Chambers, Lynda E; Altwegg, Res; Barbraud, Christophe; Barnard, Phoebe; Beaumont, Linda J; Crawford, Robert J M; Durant, Joel M; Hughes, Lesley; Keatley, Marie R; Low, Matt; Morellato, Patricia C; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Ruoppolo, Valeria; Vanstreels, Ralph E T; Woehler, Eric J; Wolfaardt, Anton C
Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically
Morellato, Patrícia; Alberton, Bruna; Almeida, Jurandy; Alex, Jefersson; Mariano, Greice; Torres, Ricardo
The e-phenology is a multidisciplinary project combining research in Computer Science and Phenology. Its goal is to attack theoretical and practical problems involving the use of new technologies for remote phenological observation aiming to detect local environmental changes. It is geared towards three objectives: (a) the use of new technologies of environmental monitoring based on remote phenology monitoring systems; (b) creation of a protocol for a Brazilian long term phenology monitoring program and for the integration across disciplines, advancing our knowledge of seasonal responses within tropics to climate change; and (c) provide models, methods and algorithms to support management, integration and analysis of data of remote phenology systems. The research team is composed by computer scientists and biology researchers in Phenology. Our first results include: Phenology towers - We set up the first phenology tower in our core cerrado-savanna 1 study site at Itirapina, São Paulo, Brazil. The tower received a complete climatic station and a digital camera. The digital camera is set up to take daily sequence of images (five images per hour, from 6:00 to 18:00 h). We set up similar phenology towers with climatic station and cameras in five more sites: cerrado-savanna 2 (Pé de Gigante, SP), cerrado grassland 3 (Itirapina, SP), rupestrian fields 4 ( Serra do Cipo, MG), seasonal forest 5 (Angatuba, SP) and Atlantic raiforest 6 (Santa Virginia, SP). Phenology database - We finished modeling and validation of a phenology database that stores ground phenology and near-remote phenology, and we are carrying out the implementation with data ingestion. Remote phenology and image processing - We performed the first analyses of the cerrado sites 1 to 4 phenology derived from digital images. Analysis were conducted by extracting color information (RGB Red, Green and Blue color channels) from selected parts of the image named regions of interest (ROI). using the green color
Racault, M.-F.; Sathyendranath, S.; Menon, N.; Platt, T.
Phenology relates to the study of timing of periodic events in the life cycle of plants or animals as influenced by environmental conditions and climatic forcing. Phenological metrics provide information essential to quantify variations in the life cycle of these organisms. The metrics also allow us to estimate the speed at which living organisms respond to environmental changes. At the surface of the oceans, microscopic plant cells, so-called phytoplankton, grow and sometimes form blooms, with concentrations reaching up to 100 million cells per litre and extending over many square kilometres. These blooms can have a huge collective impact on ocean colour, because they contain chlorophyll and other auxiliary pigments, making them visible from space. Phytoplankton populations have a high turnover rate and can respond within hours to days to environmental perturbations. This makes them ideal indicators to study the first-level biological response to environmental changes. In the Earth's climate system, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates large-scale inter-annual variations in environmental conditions. It serves as a natural experiment to study and understand how phytoplankton in the ocean (and hence the organisms at higher trophic levels) respond to climate variability. Here, the ENSO influence on phytoplankton is estimated through variations in chlorophyll concentration, primary production and timings of initiation, peak, termination and duration of the growing period. The phenological variabilities are used to characterise phytoplankton responses to changes in some physical variables: sea surface temperature, sea surface height and wind. It is reported that in oceanic regions experiencing high annual variations in the solar cycle, such as in high latitudes, the influence of ENSO may be readily measured using annual mean anomalies of physical variables. In contrast, in oceanic regions where ENSO modulates a climate system characterised by a seasonal
Josh B. Pierce; Craig Rudolph; Christopher A. Melder; Beau B. Gregory
Determing the reproductive phenology of snakes is important since it marks a time period where snakes are particularly vulnerable to predation. In addition, knowledge of reproductive phenology may help captive breeding programs specify appropriate times to pair snakes for reproduction.
Schwartz, Mark D.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Weltzin, Jake F.
Continental-scale monitoring is vital for understanding and adapting to temporal changes in seasonal climate and associated phenological responses. The success of monitoring programs will depend on recruiting, retaining, and managing members of the public to routinely collect phenological observations according to standardized protocols. Here, we trace the development of infrastructure for phenological monitoring in the US, culminating in the USA National Phenology Network, a program that engages scientists and volunteers.
Liang Liang; Mark D. Schwartz; Songlin. Fei
Phenology is an important indicator of forest health in relation to energy/nutrient cycles and species interactions. Accurate characterization of forest understory phenology is a crucial part of forest phenology observation. In this study, ground plots set up in a temperate mixed forest in Wisconsin were observed with a visible-light digital camera during spring 2007....
Ma, Shaoxiu; Churkina, Galina; Trusilova, Kristina
Predicting regional and global carbon and water dynamics requires a realistic representation of vegetation phenology. Vegetation models including cropland models exist (e.g. LPJmL, Daycent, SIBcrop, ORCHIDEE-STICS, PIXGRO) but they have various limitations in predicting cropland phenological events and their responses to climate change. Here, we investigate how leaf onset and offset days of major European croplands responded to changes in climate from 1971 to 2000 using a newly developed phenological model, which solely relies on climate data. Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data measured with eddy covariance technique at seven sites in Europe were used to adjust model parameters for wheat, barley, and rapeseed. Observational data from the International Phenology Gardens were used to corroborate modeled phenological responses to changes in climate. Enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and a crop calendar were explored as alternative predictors of leaf onset and harvest days, respectively, over a large spatial scale. In each spatial model simulation, we assumed that all European croplands were covered by only one crop type. Given this assumption, the model estimated that the leaf onset days for wheat, barley, and rapeseed in Germany advanced by 1.6, 3.4, and 3.4 days per decade, respectively, during 1961-2000. The majority of European croplands (71.4%) had an advanced mean leaf onset day for wheat, barley, and rapeseed (7.0% significant), whereas 28.6% of European croplands had a delayed leaf onset day (0.9% significant) during 1971-2000. The trend of advanced onset days estimated by the model is similar to observations from the International Phenology Gardens in Europe. The developed phenological model can be integrated into a large-scale ecosystem model to simulate the dynamics of phenological events at different temporal and spatial scales. Crop calendars and enhanced vegetation index have substantial uncertainties in predicting phenological events of croplands. Caution
Møller, A P; Rubolini, D; Saino, N
Many organisms at northern latitudes have responded to climate warming by advancing their spring phenology. Birds are known to show earlier timing of spring migration and reproduction in response to warmer springs. However, species show heterogeneous phenological responses to climate warming, with those that have not advanced or have delayed migration phenology experiencing population declines. Although some traits (such as migration distance) partly explain heterogeneity in phenological responses, the factors affecting interspecies differences in the responsiveness to climate warming have yet to be fully explored. In this comparative study, we investigate whether variation in wing aspect ratio (reflecting relative wing narrowness), an ecomorphological trait that is strongly associated with flight efficiency and migratory behaviour, affects the ability to advance timing of spring migration during 1960-2006 in a set of 80 European migratory bird species. Species with larger aspect ratio (longer and narrower wings) showed smaller advancement of timing of spring migration compared to species with smaller aspect ratio (shorter and wider wings) while controlling for phylogeny, migration distance and other life-history traits. In turn, migration distance positively predicted aspect ratio across species. Hence, species that are better adapted to migration appear to be more constrained in responding phenologically to rapid climate warming by advancing timing of spring migration. Our findings corroborate the idea that aspect ratio is a major evolutionary correlate of migration, and suggest that selection for energetically efficient flights, as reflected by high aspect ratio, may hinder phenotypically plastic/microevolutionary adjustments of migration phenology to ongoing climatic changes. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.
Chmielewski, Frank-M.; Götz, Klaus-P.; Rawel, Harshard M.; Homann, Thomas
Modelling of phenological stages is based on temperature sums for many decades, describing both the chilling and the forcing requirement of woody plants until the beginning of leafing or flowering. Parts of this approach go back to Reaumur (1735), who originally proposed the concept of growing degree-days. Now, there is a growing body of opinion that asks for new methods in phenological modelling and more in-depth studies on dormancy release of woody plants. This requirement is easily understandable if we consider the wide application of phenological models, which can even affect the results of climate models. To this day, in phenological models still a number of parameters need to be optimised on observations, although some basic physiological knowledge of the chilling and forcing requirement of plants is already considered in these approaches (semi-mechanistic models). Limiting, for a fundamental improvement of these models, is the lack of knowledge about the course of dormancy in woody plants, which cannot be directly observed and which is also insufficiently described in the literature. Modern metabolomic methods provide a solution for this problem and allow both, the validation of currently used phenological models as well as the development of mechanistic approaches. In order to develop this kind of models, changes of metabolites (concentration, temporal course) must be set in relation to the variability of environmental (steering) parameters (weather, day length, etc.). This necessarily requires multi-year (3-5 yr.) and high-resolution (weekly probes between autumn and spring) data. The feasibility of this approach has already been tested in a 3-year pilot-study on sweet cherries. Our suggested methodology is not only limited to the flowering of fruit trees, it can be also applied to tree species of the natural vegetation, where even greater deficits in phenological modelling exist.
Qiu, T.; Song, C.; Li, J.
Urbanization is a primary modification of the land surface condition on a global scale by human activities, having profound impacts on vital ecosystem services. It is thus highly valuable to understand how urbanization has impacted terrestrial ecosystem processes. Phenological shift is a key indicator of ecosystem changes that result from both climate change and urbanization. Studies using in-situ measurements have shown major differences in phenological signals between urban and rural area. Satellite-based research using imagery from coarse resolution sensors such as MODIS and AVHRR also have provided evidence on how phenological changes responded to the urban environment. However, little is known about the effects of urbanization on landscape phenology in heterogeneous urban area over long time periods. This study used all available Landsat data, which can provide dense time series of images to detect the spatiotemporal patterns of phenological changes in the urban environment. We defined several temporal periods from 1984 to 2015 and pooled all images within a multiple year period as if all images were collected in a single year. We estimated the average phenological metrics for both forests and agricultural lands including start of growing season, end of growing season, and length of growing season for each period. Then we quantified the spatiotemporal variation in the phenological signals along the rural-urban gradient in Shanghai, China. The preliminary results revealed parks within urban environment and urban-rural fringe experienced smaller changes in growing season length than urban core areas. Phenological changes were also influenced by local land cover conditions. These results can provide valuable information on how urban ecosystem might have been changing through time.
Andrew J. Elmore
Full Text Available There is great potential value in linking geographically dispersed multitemporal observations collected by lay volunteers (or “citizen scientists” with remotely-sensed observations of plant phenology, which are recognized as useful indicators of climate change. However, challenges include a large mismatch in spatial scale and diverse sources of uncertainty in the two measurement types. These challenges must be overcome if the data from each source are to be compared and jointly used to understand spatial and temporal variation in phenology, or if remote observations are to be used to predict ground-based observations. We investigated the correlation between land surface phenology derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS data and citizen scientists’ phenology observations from the USA National Phenology Network (NPN. The volunteer observations spanned 2004 to 2013 and represented 25 plant species and nine phenophases. We developed quality control procedures that removed observations outside of an a priori determined acceptable period and observations that were made more than 10 days after a preceding observation. We found that these two quality control steps improved the correlation between ground- and remote-observations, but the largest improvement was achieved when the analysis was restricted to forested MODIS pixels. These results demonstrate a high degree of correlation between the phenology of individual trees (particularly dominant forest trees such as quaking aspen, white oak, and American beech and the phenology of the surrounding forested landscape. These results provide helpful guidelines for the joint use of citizen scientists’ observations and remote sensing phenology in work aimed at understanding continental scale variation and temporal trends.
Full Text Available Baseline information about dryland forest phenology is necessary to accurately anticipate future ecosystem shifts. The overarching goal of our study was to investigate the variability of vegetation phenology across a dryland forest landscape in response to climate alterations. We analyzed the influence of site characteristics and climatic conditions on the phenological patterns of an Arizona, USA, ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa forest during a five-year period (2005 to 2009 that encompassed extreme wet and dry precipitation regimes. We assembled 80 synthetic Landsat images by applying the spatial and temporal adaptive reflectance fusion method (STARFM to 500 m MODIS and 30 m Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM data. We tested relationships between site characteristics and the timing of peak Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI to assess the effect of climatic stress on the green-up of individual pixels during or after the summer monsoon. Our results show that drought-induced stress led to a fragmented phenological response that was highly dependent on microsite parameters, as both the spatial autocorrelation of peak timing and the number of significant site variables increased during the drought year. Pixels at lower elevations and with higher proportions of herbaceous vegetation were more likely to exhibit dynamic responses to changes in precipitation conditions. Our study demonstrates the complexity of responses within dryland forest ecosystems and highlights the need for standardized monitoring of phenology trends in these areas. The spatial and temporal variability of phenological signals may provide a quantitative solution to the problem of how to evaluate dryland land surface trends across time.
Walker, Jessica; de Beurs, Kirsten; Wynne, Randolph
Baseline information about dryland forest phenology is necessary to accurately anticipate future ecosystem shifts. The overarching goal of our study was to investigate the variability of vegetation phenology across a dryland forest landscape in response to climate alterations. We analyzed the influence of site characteristics and climatic conditions on the phenological patterns of an Arizona, USA, ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest during a five-year period (2005 to 2009) that encompassed extreme wet and dry precipitation regimes. We assembled 80 synthetic Landsat images by applying the spatial and temporal adaptive reflectance fusion method (STARFM) to 500 m MODIS and 30 m Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) data. We tested relationships between site characteristics and the timing of peak Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to assess the effect of climatic stress on the green-up of individual pixels during or after the summer monsoon. Our results show that drought-induced stress led to a fragmented phenological response that was highly dependent on microsite parameters, as both the spatial autocorrelation of peak timing and the number of significant site variables increased during the drought year. Pixels at lower elevations and with higher proportions of herbaceous vegetation were more likely to exhibit dynamic responses to changes in precipitation conditions. Our study demonstrates the complexity of responses within dryland forest ecosystems and highlights the need for standardized monitoring of phenology trends in these areas. The spatial and temporal variability of phenological signals may provide a quantitative solution to the problem of how to evaluate dryland land surface trends across time.
Mo, Y.; Kearney, M.; Riter, A.
Coastal marshes provide indispensable ecological functions, such as offering habitat for economic fish and wildlife, improving water quality, protecting inland areas from floods, and stabilizing the shoreline. Hurricanes—though helping to maintain the elevation of coastal wetlands by depositing large amounts of sediments—pose one of the largest threats for coastal marshes in terms of eroding shorelines, scouring marsh surfaces, and resuspending sediments. Coastal marshes phenologies can be important for understanding broad response of marshes to stressors, like hurricanes. We investigated the phenological impacts of Katrina and Gustav (Category 3 and 2 hurricanes at landfall in southeast Louisiana on 29 August, 2005, and 1 September, 2008, respectively) on freshwater, intermediate, brackish, and saline marshes in southeastern Louisiana. Landsat-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data were processed using ENVI 4.8. Phenological patterns of the marshes were modeled using a nonlinear mixed model using SAS 9.4. We created and compared marsh phenologies of 1994 and 2014, the reference years, to those of 2005 and 2008, the hurricane years. Preliminary results show that in normal years: (1) the NDVI of four marsh types peaked in July; (2) freshwater marshes had the highest peak NDVI, followed by intermediate, brackish, and saline marshes; and (3) the growth durations of the marshes are around three to six months. In 2005, the major phenological change was shortening of growth duration, which was most obvious for intermediate and brackish marshes. The peak NDVI values of the four marsh types were not affected because the hurricane occurred at the end of August, one month after the peak NDVI time. By comparison, there was no obvious phenological impact on the marshes by Gustav (2008) with respect to peak NDVI, peak NDVI day, and growth duration.
CaraDonna, Paul J; Iler, Amy M; Inouye, David W
Phenology--the timing of biological events--is highly sensitive to climate change. However, our general understanding of how phenology responds to climate change is based almost solely on incomplete assessments of phenology (such as first date of flowering) rather than on entire phenological distributions. Using a uniquely comprehensive 39-y flowering phenology dataset from the Colorado Rocky Mountains that contains more than 2 million flower counts, we reveal a diversity of species-level phenological shifts that bring into question the accuracy of previous estimates of long-term phenological change. For 60 species, we show that first, peak, and last flowering rarely shift uniformly and instead usually shift independently of one another, resulting in a diversity of phenological changes through time. Shifts in the timing of first flowering on average overestimate the magnitude of shifts in the timing of peak flowering, fail to predict shifts in the timing of last flowering, and underrepresent the number of species changing phenology in this plant community. Ultimately, this diversity of species-level phenological shifts contributes to altered coflowering patterns within the community, a redistribution of floral abundance across the season, and an expansion of the flowering season by more than I mo during the course of our study period. These results demonstrate the substantial reshaping of ecological communities that can be attributed to shifts in phenology.
Diane L. Haase
Phenology is the annual cycle of plant development as influenced by seasonal variations. Dormancy and cold hardiness are two aspects of the annual cycle. In temperate plants, the development of cold hardiness results in the ability to withstand subfreezing winter temperatures. Cold hardiness is also a reflection of overall stress resistance. In addition to describing...
Encinas Viso, Francisco; Revilla, Tomas A; Etienne, Rampal S.
Several network properties have been identified as determinants of the stability and complexity of mutualistic networks. However, it is unclear which mechanisms give rise to these network properties. Phenology seems important, because it shapes the topology of mutualistic networks, but its effects
Salis, Lucia; Lof, Marjolein; Asch, van Margriet; Visser, Marcel E.
Understanding the relationship between an insect's developmental rate and temperature is crucial to forecast insect phenology under climate change. In the winter moth Operophtera brumata timing of egg-hatching has severe fitness consequences on growth and reproduction as egg-hatching has to match
Otto, Garrett; Bewick, Sharon; Li, Bingtuan; Fagan, William F
In this paper, we develop a phenologically explicit reaction-diffusion model to analyze the spatial spread of a univoltine insect species. Our model assumes four explicit life stages: adult, two larval, and pupa, with a fourth, implicit, egg stage modeled as a time delay between oviposition and emergence as a larva. As such, our model is broadly applicable to holometabolous insects. To account for phenology (seasonal biological timing), we introduce four time-dependent phenological functions describing adult emergence, oviposition and larval conversion, respectively. Emergence is defined as the per-capita probability of an adult emerging from the pupal stage at a particular time. Oviposition is defined as the per-capita rate of adult egg deposition at a particular time. Two functions deal with the larva stage 1 to larva stage 2, and larva stage 2 to pupa conversion as per-capita rate of conversion at a particular time. This very general formulation allows us to accommodate a wide variety of alternative insect phenologies and lifestyles. We provide the moment-generating function for the general linearized system in terms of phenological functions and model parameters. We prove that the spreading speed of the linearized system is the same as that for nonlinear system. We then find explicit solutions for the spreading speed of the insect population for the limiting cases where (1) emergence and oviposition are impulsive (i.e., take place over an extremely narrow time window), larval conversion occurs at a constant rate, and larvae are immobile, (2) emergence and oviposition are impulsive (i.e., take place over an extremely narrow time window), larval conversion occurs at a constant rate starting at a delayed time from egg hatch, and larvae are immobile, and (3) emergence, oviposition, and larval conversion are impulsive. To consider other biological scenarios, including cases with emergence and oviposition windows of finite width as well as mobile larvae, we use
Rosemartin, A.; Posthumus, E.; Gerst, K.
The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) seeks to advance the science of phenology and support the use of phenology information in decision-making. We envision that natural resource, human health, recreation and land-use decisions, in the context of a variable and changing climate, will be supported by USA-NPN products and tools. To achieve this vision we developed a logic model, breaking down the necessary inputs (e.g., IT infrastructure), participants, activities and the short- to long-term goals (e.g., use of phenological information in adaptive management). Here we compare the ongoing activities and outcomes of three recent collaborations to our logic model, in order to improve the model and inform future collaborations. At Midway Atoll National Wildlife Refuge, resource managers use the USA-NPN's phenology monitoring program to pinpoint the minimum number of days between initial growth and seed set in an invasive species. The data output and calendar visualizations that USA-NPN provides are sufficient to identify the appropriate treatment window. In contrast to a direct relationship with a natural resource manager using USA-NPN tools and products, some collaborations require substantive iterative work between partners. USA-NPN and National Park Service staff, along with academic researchers, assessed advancement in the timing of spring, and delivered the work in a format appropriate for park managers. Lastly, collaborations with indigenous communities reveal a requirement to reconsider the relationship between Western science and indigenous knowledge systems, as well as address ethical considerations and develop trust, before Western science can be meaningfully incorporated into decision-making. While the USA-NPN is a boundary organization, working in between federal agencies, states and universities, and is mandated to support decision-making, we still face challenges in generating usable science. We share lessons learned based on our experience with
Full Text Available Phenological shifts in events such as flowering and bud break are important indicators of ecosystem processes, and are therefore of particular significance for carbon (C cycle research. Using long-term flux data from three contrasting plant functional type (evergreen and deciduous boreal forest sites, we evaluated and compared the responses of annual C fluxes to multiple spring phenological indicators, including the C-uptake period onset (CUP onset, spring temperature (average value from March to May, and satellite-derived enhanced vegetation index (EVI (average value from March to May. We found that the CUP onset was negatively correlated with annual gross primary production (GPP for all three sites, but that its predictive strength for annual net ecosystem production (NEP differed substantially among plant functional types. Spring temperature demonstrated particularly good potential for predicting both annual GPP and NEP for the evergreen sites, but not for the deciduous site. Spring EVI was demonstrated to have potential for predicting annual NEP for all sites. However, both plant functional types confounded the correlation of annual NEP with annual GPP. Although none of these phenological indicators provided consistent insight into annual C fluxes, using various currently available datasets our results remain potentially useful for the assessment of forest C cycling with future climate change. Previous analyses using only a single phenological metric should be considered with caution.
La Sorte, Frank A; Fink, Daniel; Hochachka, Wesley M; DeLong, John P; Kelling, Steve
Migration is a common strategy used by birds that breed in seasonal environments. The patterns and determinants of migration routes, however, remain poorly understood. Recent empirical analyses have demonstrated that the locations of two North America migration flyways (eastern and western) shift seasonally, reflecting the influence of looped migration strategies. For the eastern but not western flyway, seasonal variation in atmospheric circulation has been identified as an explanation. Here, we test an alternative explanation based on the phenology of ecological productivity, which may be of greater relevance in western North America, where phenology is more broadly dictated by elevation. Migrants in the western flyway selected lower-elevation spring routes that were wetter, greener and more productive, and higher-elevation autumn routes that were less green and less productive, but probably more direct. Migrants in the eastern flyway showed little season variation but maintained associations with maximum regional greenness. Our findings suggest the annual phenology of ecological productivity is associated with en route timing in both flyways, and the spring phenology of ecological productivity contributes to the use of looped strategies in the western flyway. This fine-tuned spatial synchronization may be disrupted when changing climate induces a mismatch between food availability and needs. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
Liu, Qiang; Fu, Yongshuo H; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Xiran; Piao, Shilong
Autumn phenology plays a critical role in regulating climate-biosphere interactions. However, the climatic drivers of autumn phenology remain unclear. In this study, we applied four methods to estimate the date of the end of the growing season (EOS) across China's temperate biomes based on a 30-year normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset from Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS). We investigated the relationships of EOS with temperature, precipitation sum, and insolation sum over the preseason periods by computing temporal partial correlation coefficients. The results showed that the EOS date was delayed in temperate China by an average rate at 0.12 ± 0.01 days per year over the time period of 1982-2011. EOS of dry grassland in Inner Mongolia was advanced. Temporal trends of EOS determined across the four methods were similar in sign, but different in magnitude. Consistent with previous studies, we observed positive correlations between temperature and EOS. Interestingly, the sum of precipitation and insolation during the preseason was also associated with EOS, but their effects were biome dependent. For the forest biomes, except for evergreen needle-leaf forests, the EOS dates were positively associated with insolation sum over the preseason, whereas for dry grassland, the precipitation over the preseason was more dominant. Our results confirmed the importance of temperature on phenological processes in autumn, and further suggested that both precipitation and insolation should be considered to improve the performance of autumn phenology models. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Yan, D.; Scott, R. L.; Moore, D. J.; Biederman, J. A.; Smith, W. K.
Land surface phenology (LSP) - defined as remotely sensed seasonal variations in vegetation greenness - is intrinsically linked to seasonal carbon uptake, and is thus commonly used as a proxy for vegetation productivity (gross primary productivity; GPP). Yet, the relationship between LSP and GPP remains uncertain, particularly for understudied dryland ecosystems characterized by relatively large spatial and temporal variability. Here, we explored the relationship between LSP and the phenology of GPP for three dominant dryland ecosystem types, and we evaluated how these relationships change as a function of spatial and temporal scale. We focused on three long-term dryland eddy covariance flux tower sites: Walnut Gulch Lucky Hills Shrubland (WHS), Walnut Gulch Kendall Grassland (WKG), and Santa Rita Mesquite (SRM). We analyzed daily canopy-level, 16-day 30m, and 8-day 500m time series of greenness indices from PhenoCam, Landsat 7 ETM+/Landsat 8 OLI, and MODIS, respectively. We first quantified the impact of spatial scale by temporally resampling canopy-level PhenoCam, 30m Landsat, and 500m MODIS to 16-day intervals and then comparing against flux tower GPP estimates. We next quantified the impact of temporal scale by spatially resampling daily PhenoCam, 16-day Landsat, and 8-day MODIS to 500m time series and then comparing against flux tower GPP estimates. We find evidence of critical periods of decoupling between LSP and the phenology of GPP that vary according to the spatial and temporal scale, and as a function of ecosystem type. Our results provide key insight into dryland LSP and GPP dynamics that can be used in future efforts to improve ecosystem process models and satellite-based vegetation productivity algorithms.
Didan, K.; van Leeuwen, W.; Miura, T.; Friedl, M.; Zhang, X.; Czapla-Myers, J.; Jenkerson, C. B.; Maiersperger, T. K.
Phenology is the expression of the seasonal cycle of all biotic processes. It is the pulse of our planet, and is an essential and critical component of environmental science influencing biodiversity, species interactions, their ecological functioning, and their effects on fluxes of water, energy, and biogeochemical elements at various scales. Changes in phenology depict an integrated response to environmental change and provide valuable information for global change research, land degradation studies, integrated pest and invasive species management, drought monitoring, wildfire risk assessment, and agricultural production. In this NASA Making Earth System data records for Use in Research Environments (NASA-MEaSUREs) project our multi-institution team of investigators plans to generate a seamless and consistent sensor independent Earth System Data Record and Climate Data Record (ESDR/CDR) quality measures of landscape phenology and vegetation index (VI), by fusing measurements from different satellite missions and sensors. We plan to use the AVHRR, MODIS and VIIRS daily surface reflectance products and design sensor independent algorithms that can be applied to these multi-sensor data sets. Our project aims at generating, documenting, and delivering 30+ years of consistent and well characterized ESDR/CDR quality daily measurements of land surface VI and annual phenology parameters at a climate modeling grid resolution (CMG, 0.05 deg). In collaboration with the newly established USA national phenology network (USA-NPN), we plan to correlate these remote sensing based measurements of phenology and VI with ground observations. We aim at evaluating the consistency and accuracy of these products by comparing them with in situ growing season phenology observations over different biomes, latitudinal and elevational gradients. We plan to distribute these products through the USGS EROS center and support them via a web based interactive visualization system. We will enlist
Sheridan, Jennifer A; Caruso, Nicholas M; Apodaca, Joseph J; Rissler, Leslie J
Changes in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100 years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km 2 , and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901-1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961-2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in "space-for-time" studies where measures of a species' traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population
Liu, Y.; McDonough MacKenzie, C.; Primack, R.; Zhang, X.; Schaaf, C.; Sun, Q.; Wang, Z.
Monitoring phenology with remotely sensed data has become standard practice in large-plot agriculture but remains an area of research in complex terrain. Landsat data (30m) provides a more appropriate spatial resolution to describe such regions but may only capture a few cloud-free images over a growing period. Daily data from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite(VIIRS) offer better temporal acquisitions but at coarse spatial resolutions of 250m to 1km. Thus fused data sets are being employed to provide the temporal and spatial resolutions necessary to accurately monitor vegetation phenology. This study focused on Acadia National Park, Maine, attempts to compare green-up from remote sensing and ground observations over varying topography. Three north-south field transects were established in 2013 on parallel mountains. Along these transects, researchers record the leaf out and flowering phenology for thirty plant species biweekly. These in situ spring phenological observations are compared with the dates detected by Landsat 7, Landsat 8, MODIS, and VIIRS observations, both separately and as fused data, to explore the ability of remotely sensed data to capture the subtle variations due to elevation. Daily Nadir BRDF Adjusted Reflectances(NBAR) from MODIS and VIIRS are fused with Landsat imagery to simulate 30m daily data via the Enhanced Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model(ESTARFM) algorithm. Piecewise logistic functions are fit to the time series to establish spring leaf-out dates. Acadia National Park, a region frequently affected by coastal clouds, is a particularly useful study area as it falls in a Landsat overlap region and thus offers the possibility of acquiring as many as 4 Landsat observations in a 16 day period. With the recent launch of Sentinel 2A, the community will have routine access to such high spatial and temporal data for phenological monitoring.
Willis, Charles G; Ellwood, Elizabeth R; Primack, Richard B; Davis, Charles C; Pearson, Katelin D; Gallinat, Amanda S; Yost, Jenn M; Nelson, Gil; Mazer, Susan J; Rossington, Natalie L; Sparks, Tim H; Soltis, Pamela S
The timing of phenological events, such as leaf-out and flowering, strongly influence plant success and their study is vital to understanding how plants will respond to climate change. Phenological research, however, is often limited by the temporal, geographic, or phylogenetic scope of available data. Hundreds of millions of plant specimens in herbaria worldwide offer a potential solution to this problem, especially as digitization efforts drastically improve access to collections. Herbarium specimens represent snapshots of phenological events and have been reliably used to characterize phenological responses to climate. We review the current state of herbarium-based phenological research, identify potential biases and limitations in the collection, digitization, and interpretation of specimen data, and discuss future opportunities for phenological investigations using herbarium specimens. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Kolk, Van Der Henk Jan; Wallis de Vries, Michiel; Vliet, Van Arnold J.H.
Phenological responses of butterflies to temperature have been demonstrated in several European countries by using data from standardized butterfly monitoring schemes. Recently, phenological networks have enabled volunteers to record phenological observations at project websites. In this study,
over large regions. Hence the use of satellite data is critical to observe Juniperus spp. pollen phenology. MODIS data was used to observe Juniperus spp. pollen phenology. The MODIS surface reflectance product(MOD09) provided information on the Juniper spp. cone formation and cone density (Fig 1). Ground based observational records of pollen release timing and quantities were used as verification. Techniques developed using MOD09 surface reflectance products will be directly applicable to the next generation sensors such as VIIRS.
CaraDonna, Paul J.; Iler, Amy M.; Inouye, David W.
Seasonal timing of biological events, phenology, is one of the strongest bioindicators of climate change. Our general understanding of phenological responses to climate change is based almost solely on the first day on which an event is observed, limiting our understanding of how ecological communities may be responding as a whole. Using a unique long-term record of flowering phenology from Colorado, we find that the number of species changing their flowering times likely has been underestima...
RUGNA, Ana Zulema; GURNI, Alberto Angel; WAGNER, Marcelo Luis
Polyphenol profiles can suffer quali-quantitative modifications as the plant modifies its phenological condition. The objective of this work was to determine if there is a rhythm of production in the synthesis of polyphenols according to the phenological condition in the leaves, roots, and rhizomes of Smilax campestris Griseb. The plant material analysed corresponded to individuals of a colony of S. campestris collected in different phenological conditions. Standard methodology was used for t...
Glynn, Pierre D.; Owen, Timothy W.
In January 2014, leadership from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Ecosystems Mission Area commissioned a review of the USA National Phenology Network (USA–NPN) Program. The Ecosystems Mission Area has a key stake in the USA–NPN, providing both supervision of its Director and most of the appropriated funds. The products and objectives of the program are relevant to six of the seven USGS Mission Areas as well as to at least four Department of the Interior (DOI) bureaus.
Ross, Megan V.; Alisaukas, Ray T.; Douglas, David C.; Kellett, Dana K.
A full understanding of population dynamics depends not only on estimation of mechanistic contributions of recruitment and survival, but also knowledge about the ecological processes that drive each of these vital rates. The process of recruitment in particular may be protracted over several years, and can depend on numerous ecological complexities until sexually mature adulthood is attained. We addressed long-term declines (23 breeding seasons, 1992–2014) in the per capita production of young by both Ross's Geese (Chen rossii) and Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) nesting at Karrak Lake in Canada's central Arctic. During this period, there was a contemporaneous increase from 0.4 to 1.1 million adults nesting at this colony. We evaluated whether (1) density-dependent nutritional deficiencies of pre-breeding females or (2) phenological mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality, inferred from NDVI on the brood-rearing areas, may have been behind decadal declines in the per capita production of goslings. We found that, in years when pre-breeding females arrived to the nesting grounds with diminished nutrient reserves, the proportional composition of young during brood-rearing was reduced for both species. Furthermore, increased mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality contributed additively to further declines in gosling production, in addition to declines caused by delayed nesting with associated subsequent negative effects on clutch size and nest success. The degree of mismatch increased over the course of our study because of advanced vegetation phenology without a corresponding advance in Goose nesting phenology. Vegetation phenology was significantly earlier in years with warm surface air temperatures measured in spring (i.e., 25 May–30 June). We suggest that both increased phenological mismatch and reduced nutritional condition of arriving females were behind declines in population-level recruitment
Daham, Afrah; Han, Dawei; Jolly, William M.; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel
Exchanges of momentum, heat, carbon dioxide, energy, water and mass between the land's surface and the atmosphere are significantly affected by the phenological state of vegetation. Although, most phenology models have the function in analysing and predicting future trends in response to climate change, a bioclimatic index including precipitation in has not been adequately considered in the existing phenology models. In this study a new variable is added to the common set of variables found in the literature review and it is demonstrated how these variables could be combined into an index to quantify the greenness of vegetation throughout the three different years that have been selected (2001, 2006, and 2010). These four selected variables are: Suboptimal (minimum) temperatures, evaporative demand (vapour pressure deficit), photoperiod (daylength), and precipitation. Threshold limits (a lower threshold and an upper threshold) have been set for individual variables, within which the relative phenological performance of the vegetation is assumed to vary from inactive (0) to unconstrained (1). A combined Growing Season Index (GSI) is derived as the product of the four indices. The mean GSI values over twenty one days for the study area during the study period showed a good correlation with the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The model has been tested for different locations in Iraq (Sulaymaniyah in the north, Wasit in the centre and Basrah in the south) by comparing the model results for these areas with the addition of the precipitation variable and without. The correlation for this model has been improved significantly after adding precipitation as an index in the GSI model. The modified model appears sufficiently robust to reconstruct historical variation as well as to forecast possible future phenological responses to changing climatic conditions. This study is of important value
Prevéy, Janet; Vellend, Mark; Rüger, Nadja
Warmer temperatures are accelerating the phenology of organisms around the world. Temperature sensitivity of phenology might be greater in colder, higher latitude sites than in warmer regions, in part because small changes in temperature constitute greater relative changes in thermal balance...... warmer high-latitude locations. A similar pattern was seen over time for the flowering phenology of a widespread species, Cassiope tetragona. These are among the first results highlighting differential phenological responses of plants across a climatic gradient and suggest the possibility of convergence...
Gienapp, Phillip; Reed, Thomas E; Visser, Marcel E
The seasonal timing of lifecycle events is closely linked to individual fitness and hence, maladaptation in phenological traits may impact population dynamics. However, few studies have analysed whether and why climate change will alter selection pressures and hence possibly induce maladaptation in phenology. To fill this gap, we here use a theoretical modelling approach. In our models, the phenologies of consumer and resource are (potentially) environmentally sensitive and depend on two different but correlated environmental variables. Fitness of the consumer depends on the phenological match with the resource. Because we explicitly model the dependence of the phenologies on environmental variables, we can test how differential (heterogeneous) versus equal (homogeneous) rates of change in the environmental variables affect selection on consumer phenology. As expected, under heterogeneous change, phenotypic plasticity is insufficient and thus selection on consumer phenology arises. However, even homogeneous change leads to directional selection on consumer phenology. This is because the consumer reaction norm has historically evolved to be flatter than the resource reaction norm, owing to time lags and imperfect cue reliability. Climate change will therefore lead to increased selection on consumer phenology across a broad range of situations. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available Phenology response to climatic variables is a vital indicator for understanding changes in biosphere processes as related to possible climate change. We investigated global phenology relationships to precipitation and land surface temperature (LST at high spatial and temporal resolution for calendar years 2008–2011. We used cross-correlation between MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI, MODIS LST and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN gridded rainfall to map phenology relationships at 1-km spatial resolution and weekly temporal resolution. We show these data to be rich in spatiotemporal information, illustrating distinct phenology patterns as a result of complex overlapping gradients of climate, ecosystem and land use/land cover. The data are consistent with broad-scale, coarse-resolution modeled ecosystem limitations to moisture, temperature and irradiance. We suggest that high-resolution phenology data are useful as both an input and complement to land use/land cover classifiers and for understanding climate change vulnerability in natural and anthropogenic landscapes.
Osmar Abílio de Carvalho Júnior
Full Text Available Typically, digital image processing for burned-areas detection combines the use of a spectral index and the seasonal differencing method. However, the seasonal differencing has many errors when applied to a long-term time series. This article aims to develop and test two methods as an alternative to the traditional seasonal difference. The study area is the Chapada dos Veadeiros National Park (Central Brazil that comprises different vegetation of the Cerrado biome. We used the MODIS/Terra Surface Reflectance 8-Day composite data, considering a 12-year period. The normalized burn ratio was calculated from the band 2 (250-meter resolution and the band 7 (500-meter resolution reasampled to 250-meter. In this context, the normalization methods aim to eliminate all possible sources of spectral variation and highlight the burned-area features. The proposed normalization methods were the standardized time-series and the interannual phenological deviation. The standardized time-series calculate for each pixel the z-scores of its temporal curve, obtaining a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. The second method establishes a reference curve for each pixel from the average interannual phenology that is subtracted for every year of its respective time series. Optimal threshold value between burned and unburned area for each method was determined from accuracy assessment curves, which compare different threshold values and its accuracy indices with a reference classification using Landsat TM. The different methods have similar accuracy for the burning event, where the standardized method has slightly better results. However, the seasonal difference method has a very false positive error, especially in the period between the rainy and dry seasons. The interannual phenological deviation method minimizes false positive errors, but some remain. In contrast, the standardized time series shows excellent results not containing this type of error. This
Petanidou, Theodora; Kallimanis, Athanasios S.; Sgardelis, Stefanos P.; Mazaris, Antonios D.; Pantis, John D.; Waser, Nickolas M.
Recent anthropogenic climate change is strongly associated with average shifts toward earlier seasonal timing of activity (phenology) in temperate-zone species. Shifts in phenology have the potential to alter ecological interactions, to the detriment of one or more interacting species. Recent models predict that detrimental phenological mismatch may increasingly occur between plants and their pollinators. One way to test this prediction is to examine data from ecological communities that experience large annual weather fluctuations. Taking this approach, we analyzed interactions over a four-year period among 132 plant species and 665 pollinating insect species within a Mediterranean community. For each plant species we recorded onset and duration of flowering and number of pollinator species. Flowering onset varied among years, and a year of earlier flowering of a species tended to be a year of fewer species pollinating its flowers. This relationship was attributable principally to early-flowering species, suggesting that shifts toward earlier phenology driven by climate change may reduce pollination services due to phenological mismatch. Earlier flowering onset of a species also was associated with prolonged flowering duration, but it is not certain that this will counterbalance any negative effects of lower pollinator species richness on plant reproductive success. Among plants with different life histories, annuals were more severely affected by flowering-pollinator mismatches than perennials. Specialized plant species (those attracting a smaller number of pollinator species) did not experience disproportionate interannual fluctuations in phenology. Thus they do not appear to be faced with disproportionate fluctuations in pollinator species richness, contrary to the expectation that specialists are at greatest risk of losing mutualistic interactions because of climate change.
Crimmins, T. M.; Gerst, K.
The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; www.usanpn.org) produces and freely delivers daily and short-term forecast maps of spring onset dates at fine spatial scale for the conterminous United States and Alaska using the Spring Indices. These models, which represent the start of biological activity in the spring season, were developed using a long-term observational record of four species of lilacs and honeysuckles contributed by volunteer observers. Three of the four species continue to be tracked through the USA-NPN's phenology observation program, Nature's Notebook. The gridded Spring Index maps have utility for a wide range of natural resource planning and management applications, including scheduling invasive species and pest detection and control activities, anticipating allergy outbreaks and planning agricultural harvest dates. However, to date, there has not been a comprehensive assessment of how well the gridded Spring Index maps accurately reflect phenological activity in lilacs and honeysuckles or other species of plants. In this study, we used observational plant phenology data maintained by the USA-NPN to evaluate how well the gridded Spring Index maps match leaf and flowering onset dates in a) the lilac and honeysuckle species used to construct the models and b) in several species of deciduous trees. The Spring Index performed strongly at predicting the timing of leaf-out and flowering in lilacs and honeysuckles. The average error between predicted and observed date of onset ranged from 5.9 to 11.4 days. Flowering models performed slightly better than leaf-out models. The degree to which the Spring Indices predicted native deciduous tree leaf and flower phenology varied by year, species, and region. Generally, the models were better predictors of leaf and flowering onset dates in the Northeastern and Midwestern US. These results reveal when and where the Spring Indices are a meaningful proxy of phenological activity across the United States.
Kellermann, Jherime L.; van Riper, Charles
Small-bodied songbirds replenish fat reserves during migration at stopover sites where they continually encounter novel and often unpredictable environmental conditions. The ability to select and utilize high quality habitats is critical to survival and fitness. Vegetation phenology is closely linked with emergence of insect prey and may provide valid cues of food availability for stopover habitat selection. Climate change is disrupting phenological synchrony across trophic levels with negative impacts on bird populations. However, whether synchrony or mismatch indicates historic or disrupted systems remains unclear. Many Neotropical migratory songbirds of western North America must cross arid regions where drought conditions related to climate change and human water use are expected to increase. We studied migrant abundance and the diversity (niche breadth) and proportional use of vegetation species as foraging substrates and their synchrony with vegetation flowering during spring migration along the lower Colorado River in the Sonoran Desert of the U.S. and Mexico.
Miles, Will T S; Bolton, Mark; Davis, Peter; Dennis, Roy; Broad, Roger; Robertson, Iain; Riddiford, Nick J; Harvey, Paul V; Riddington, Roger; Shaw, Deryk N; Parnaby, David; Reid, Jane M
metrics, are used to quantify phenological change. Existing evidence of long-term phenological changes detected using only one or two metrics should consequently be interpreted cautiously because divergent changes occurring simultaneously could potentially have remained undetected. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
The Steffan lab has coordinated cranberry growers as citizen scientists since 2014 to record growing degree-days and make observations of cranberry plant phenology. The data from the last three years was analyzed to link plant phenology with degree-days....
Prof. Adipala Ekwamu
climatic and phenological parameters explain 52.80% callogenesis variations, against 31.50% for SE. Therefore, climate and phenology significantly influence callogenesis, but not SE. For further industrial production of secondary metabolites such as butter, theobromin and chocolate aroma from calli, it would be desirable ...
Henebry, G. M.
Phenology is, in the words of Aldo Leopold, a "horizontal science" that cuts across and binds together multiple biological disciplines. It is a far-reaching but poorly understood aspect of the environmental sciences. Phenological research has been a component of the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network at several sites over the years. However, it has not received the attention or resources to bring it to the forefront as an effective theme for interdisciplinary and cross-site synthesis. With the recent establishment of the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN), it is appropriate to assess the status of phenological knowledge across the LTER Network. A workshop funded by the LTER Network Office took place at the Sevilleta Field Station during February 26 to March 2, 2007. From the workshop three main products emerged: (1) an inventory of LTER phenology datasets, (2) establishment of a website to facilitate information interchange, and (3) a white paper recommending next steps for the LTER Network to engage the USA-NPN. This poster relates the findings and recommendations of the workshop, including a summary of phenologically explicit and phenologically implicit LTER datasets and illustrations of how the climatic envelopes described by simple weather variables can provide context for phenological comparisons within and across sites.
Ferreira, Ana Sofia; Visser, Andre; MacKenzie, Brian
Phytoplankton phenology (the timing of seasonal events) is a commonly used indicator for evaluating responses of marine ecosystems to climate change. However, phenological metrics are vulnerable to observation-(bloom amplitude, missing data, and observational noise) and analysis-related (temporal...
R. Stockli; T. Rutishauser; D. Dragoni; J. O' Keefe; P. E. Thornton; M. Jolly; L. Lu; A. S. Denning
Predicting the global carbon and water cycle requires a realistic representation of vegetation phenology in climate models. However most prognostic phenology models are not yet suited for global applications, and diagnostic satellite data can be uncertain and lack predictive power. We present a framework for data assimilation of Fraction of Photosynthetically Active...
Cohen, Jeremy M.; Lajeunesse, Marc J.; Rohr, Jason R.
Shifts in phenology are already resulting in disruptions to the timing of migration and breeding, and asynchronies between interacting species1-5. Recent syntheses have concluded that trophic level1, latitude6 and how phenological responses are measured7 are key to determining the strength of phenological responses to climate change. However, researchers still lack a comprehensive framework that can predict responses to climate change globally and across diverse taxa. Here, we synthesize hundreds of published time series of animal phenology from across the planet to show that temperature primarily drives phenological responses at mid-latitudes, with precipitation becoming important at lower latitudes, probably reflecting factors that drive seasonality in each region. Phylogeny and body size are associated with the strength of phenological shifts, suggesting emerging asynchronies between interacting species that differ in body size, such as hosts and parasites and predators and prey. Finally, although there are many compelling biological explanations for spring phenological delays, some examples of delays are associated with short annual records that are prone to sampling error. Our findings arm biologists with predictions concerning which climatic variables and organismal traits drive phenological shifts.
In the first year, in control clones,climatic and phenological parameters explain 52.80% callogenesis variations, against 31.50% for SE. Therefore,climate and phenology significantly influence callogenesis, but not SE. For further industrial production of secondary metabolites such as butter, the obromin and chocolate aroma ...
Wingate, L.; Ogeé, J.; Cremonese, E.
Plant phenological development is orchestrated through subtle changes in photoperiod, temperature, soil moisture and nutrient availability. Presently, the exact timing of plant development stages and their response to climate and management practices are crudely represented in land surface models...... cameras installed on towers across Europe above deciduous and evergreen forests, grasslands and croplands, where vegetation and atmosphere CO2 fluxes are measured continuously. Using colour indices from digital images and using piecewise regression analysis of time series, we explored whether key changes...... in canopy phenology could be detected automatically across different land use types in the network. The piecewise regression approach could capture the start and end of the growing season, in addition to identifying striking changes in colour signals caused by flowering and management practices...
Ferreira, Ana Sofia; Visser, Andre; MacKenzie, Brian
resolution, preprocessing technique, and phenology metric) processes. Here we consider the impact of these processes on the robustness of four phenology metrics (timing of maximum, 5% above median, maximum growth rate, and 15% of cumulative distribution). We apply a simulation-testing approach, where......Phytoplankton phenology (the timing of seasonal events) is a commonly used indicator for evaluating responses of marine ecosystems to climate change. However, phenological metrics are vulnerable to observation-(bloom amplitude, missing data, and observational noise) and analysis-related (temporal...... a phenology metric is first determined from a noise- and gap-free time series, and again once it has been modified. We show that precision is a greater concern than accuracy for many of these metrics, an important point that has been hereto overlooked in the literature. The variability in precision between...
Wijk, van M.T.; Williams, M.; Laundre, J.A.; Shaver, G.R.
We present a linked model of plant productivity, plant phenology, snowmelt and soil thaw in order to estimate interannual variability of arctic plant phenology and its effects on plant productivity. The model is tested using 8 years of soil temperature data, and three years of bud break data of
Davis, Charles C; Willis, Charles G; Connolly, Bryan; Kelly, Courtland; Ellison, Aaron M
Climate change has resulted in major changes in the phenology of some species but not others. Long-term field observational records provide the best assessment of these changes, but geographic and taxonomic biases limit their utility. Plant specimens in herbaria have been hypothesized to provide a wealth of additional data for studying phenological responses to climatic change. However, no study to our knowledge has comprehensively addressed whether herbarium data are accurate measures of phenological response and thus applicable to addressing such questions. We compared flowering phenology determined from field observations (years 1852-1858, 1875, 1878-1908, 2003-2006, 2011-2013) and herbarium records (1852-2013) of 20 species from New England, United States. Earliest flowering date estimated from herbarium records faithfully reflected field observations of first flowering date and substantially increased the sampling range across climatic conditions. Additionally, although most species demonstrated a response to interannual temperature variation, long-term temporal changes in phenological response were not detectable. Our findings support the use of herbarium records for understanding plant phenological responses to changes in temperature, and also importantly establish a new use of herbarium collections: inferring primary phenological cueing mechanisms of individual species (e.g., temperature, winter chilling, photoperiod). These latter data are lacking from most investigations of phenological change, but are vital for understanding differential responses of individual species to ongoing climate change. © 2015 Botanical Society of America.
Cescatti, A.; Alkama, R.; Forzieri, G.; Rödenbeck, C.; Zaehle, S.; Sitch, S.; Friedlingstein, P.; Nabel, J.; Viovy, N.; Kato, E.; Koven, C.; Zeng, N.; Ciais, P.
Dynamic vegetation models and atmospheric observations of CO2 concentration point to a large increase of the global terrestrial carbon uptake over the recent decades. However, they disagree on the key regions, on the seasonality and on the processes underlying such a persistent increase. In particular, the role of the changing plant phenology on the global carbon budget is still unknown. To investigate these issues we explored the temporal dynamic of the land carbon fluxes over 1981-2014 using the Jena CarboScope atmospheric CO2 inversion and an ensemble of land surface models (TRENDY). Using these datasets the temporal extent and timing of the land carbon uptake and carbon release period have been investigated in four different latitudinal bands (75N-45N; 45N-15N; 15N-15S; 15S-45S) to explore the recent changes in the phenology of the vegetation CO2 exchange across different climates and biomes. The impact of phenological changes on the land carbon flux has been investigated by factoring out the signal due to the length of the growing season from the other signals. Estimates retrieved from the atmospheric inversion have been compared with the prediction of the ensemble of vegetation models. Results shows that the changes in the global carbon fluxes occurred in the last three decades are dominated by the duration and intensification of the uptake during the growing season. Interestingly, the seasonality of the trends shows a consistent pattern at all latitudinal bands, with a systematic advancement of the onset and minor changes of the end dates of the growing season. According to the atmospheric inversion the increasing trend in the land sink is driven about equally by the changes in phenology (due to the earlier onset and later offset) and by the intensification of the daily uptake. The increased annual carbon uptake revealed by the atmospheric inversion is about 60% larger than the model predictions, possibly due to the model underestimation of land use flues
Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5902/198050989280This study aimed to elucidate the time of occurrence of flowers and fruits and the external and internal morphology of the flower, fruit and seed, and seedling and external changes of Diatenopteryx sorbifolia Radlk (Sapindaceae. The collection of botanical material and phenological observations were made on trees headquarters, located in the municipality of Frederico Westphalen, Rio Grande do Sul state, between March 2007 and March 2010. The study was conducted at the Seed Laboratory of the Department of Forest Sciences, Federal University of Santa Maria, RS state. The species flowered from September to October. The annual fruiting occurs from November to January, having anemochorous dispersion. There were irregularities in the production of fruits as the years and there is no synchronization between headquarters during the phenophases. The species has inflorescence thyrsus, pleiotirso, with small white flowers in color, hermaphrodites with ovarian super sincarpico, and bicarpelar uniovular, as well as male unisexual flowers. The fruit of siples, dry, indehiscent, brown color, is the type esquisocarpaceo, consisting of samarideos containing one to two seeds, ovoid, brown color, exalbuminate with axial embryo and fleshy cotyledons. The germination process started from the second day after sowing, germination is epigeal type. After 18 days, the seedling phanerocotyledonal is formed. The changes in conditions to be studied, are formed three months after sowing. The phenological characterization is morphological information that is relevant for the field identification of species, seed collection and analysis, as well as the production of seedlings.
Post, E.; Stenseth, N.C. [Univ. of Oslo (Norway)
Models of climate change predict that global temperatures and precipitation will increase within the next century, with the most pronounced changes occurring in northern latitudes and during winter. A large-scale atmospheric phenomenon, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), is a strong determinant of both interannual variation and decadal trends in temperatures and precipitation during winter in northern latitudes, and its recent persistence in one extreme phase may be a substantial component of increases in global temperatures. Hence, the authors investigated the influences of large-scale climatic variability on plant phenology and ungulate population ecology by incorporating the NAO in statistical analyses of previously published data on: (1) the timing of flowering by plants in Norway, and (2) phenotypic and demographic variation in populations of northern ungulates. The authors analyzed 137 time series on plant phenology for 13 species of plants in Norway spanning up to 50 yr and 39 time series on phenotypic and demographic traits of 7 species of northern ungulates from 16 populations in North America and northern Europe spanning up to 30 yr.
Tammy E. Parece
Full Text Available The urban heat island effect is commonly defined as the thermal differences between cooler rural and warmer urban areas, but it also refers to microclimatic differences within an urban area that arises from varied combinations of land cover related to different land uses. Microclimatic variations should also produce intra-urban differences in vegetation phenophases, although few studies have investigated urban phenology. Most phenological studies are usually regional to continental in scale, predominantly tracking changes in start of season related to climate change. This study reports results of an exploratory analysis using TIMESAT (Lund University, Lund, Sweden software and MODIS NDVI 250-m resolution data (Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA to identify intra-urban differences in start of season for the City of Roanoke, Virginia. We compare these results to our in-situ temperature collection campaign. Additionally, we completed an in-situ start of season data collection by observing select tree species. Our results demonstrate that MODIS, processed by TIMESAT software, identified intra-urban start of season variations, and these variations are consistent with differing intra-urban microclimates and our in-situ start of season observations. Furthermore, results from such analyses can aid plans for increasing the urban tree canopy or in cultivating locations for urban agriculture—i.e., warmer areas with a longer growing season could accommodate warmer weather trees and crops.
Full Text Available Soine of the developmental stages of Canada thistle - Cirsium arvense (L. Scop. (I. emergence and early growth, II. shooting, II. budding, IV. flowering, V. fructification, VI. shedding of fruits on the background of development stages of broad-bean, weeded by herbicides and without that weed-killing substances, were presented in the paper. Phenological observations were carried out on the plants growing on alluvial soil developed from light loam in Zakrz6w near Tarnobrzeg. It was proved that phenological development of Canada thistle, during broad-bean vegetation, depended on course of weather conditions and method of crop care. Emergence of the weed occurred earlier than broad-bean plants during warm and rather dry seasons. In every vegetation period, emergence and early vegetation stage (to 4 leaves seedling of Canada thistle lasted about 3 months, until broad-bean got full pod setting. During wet and cold season (in 2001 the weed emerged also early under herbicide (Afalon 1,5 kg ha-1 condition. Until to broad-bean harvest, Canada thistle attained the finish developmental stages, that means fruiting and fruit shedding. Herbicide treatment delayed the last two stages and limited fruit shedding by plants of Cirsium arvense.
Orlandi, F.; Ruga, L.; Bonofiglio, T.; Romano, B.; Fornaciari, M.
The present study was carried out in a phenological garden in central Italy that contains vegetative clones of shrubs and trees common to several international phenological gardens, such as Cornus sanguinea L.; Corylus avellana L.; Ligustrum vulgare L.; Robinia pseudoacacia L.; Salix acutifolia Willd. and Sambucus nigra L. Vegetative plant growth monitoring was carried out weekly using common international keys: BBCH07, bud break and leaf unfolding; BBCH19, young unfolded leaf; BBCH91, adult leaves; BBCH93, beginning of leaf colouring. The phenological dates thus obtained provide a model of the development for these different species in relation to the 15-year period of observation (1997-2011). From a meteorological point of view, temperature and precipitation trends were studied, with the highest anomalies during the study period recorded during the first 2 months of the year (January, February). There was relative invariance in the manifestation of the open bud phase and the contemporary advance of the young open leaves phase, particularly from 2006. This was accompanied by shortening of the leaf opening period, which appeared due to more rapid spring temperature increases over the last few years. The advance tendency of the BBCH91 phase showed adult leaves from the first summer weeks with fully green foliage monitored for a long time. Generally, the autumn leaf colouring phase tended to remain constant, with the exception of Salix acutifolia and Sambucus nigra, for which, on the other hand, the first leaf development phases appeared to be most likely influenced by the photoperiod.
Full Text Available In most cultures the dead and their living relatives are held in a dialogic relationship. The dead have made it clear, while living, what they expect from their descendants. The living, for their part, wish to honour the tombs of their ancestors; at the least, to keep the graves of the recent dead from disrepair. Despite the strictures, the living can fail their responsibilities, for example, by migration to foreign countries. The peripatetic Chinese are one of the few cultures able to overcome the dilemma of the wanderer or the exile. With the help of a priest, an Australian Chinese migrant may summon the soul of an ancestor from an Asian grave to a Melbourne temple, where the spirit, though removed from its earthly vessel, will rest and remain at peace. Amongst cultures in which such practices are not culturally appropriate, to fail to honour the family dead can be exquisitely painful. Violence is the cause of most failure.
Lowman, L.; Barros, A. P.
Data assimilation (DA) is the widely accepted procedure for estimating parameters within predictive models because of the adaptability and uncertainty quantification offered by Bayesian methods. DA applications in phenology modeling offer critical insights into how extreme weather or changes in climate impact the vegetation life cycle. Changes in leaf onset and senescence, root phenology, and intermittent leaf shedding imply large changes in the surface radiative, water, and carbon budgets at multiple scales. Models of leaf phenology require concurrent atmospheric and soil conditions to determine how biophysical plant properties respond to changes in temperature, light and water demand. Presently, climatological records for fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) and leaf area index (LAI), the modelled states indicative of plant phenology, are not available. Further, DA models are typically trained on short periods of record (e.g. less than 10 years). Using limited records with a DA framework imposes non-stationarity on estimated parameters and the resulting predicted model states. This talk discusses how uncertainty introduced by the inherent non-stationarity of the modeled processes propagates through a land-surface hydrology model coupled to a predictive phenology model. How water demand is accounted for in the upscaling of DA model inputs and analysis period serves as a key source of uncertainty in the FPAR and LAI predictions. Parameters estimated from different DA effectively calibrate a plant water-use strategy within the land-surface hydrology model. For example, when extreme droughts are included in the DA period, the plants are trained to uptake water, transpire, and assimilate carbon under favorable conditions and quickly shut down at the onset of water stress.
Migliavacca, Mirco; Reichstein, Markus; Richardson, Andrew D; Mahecha, Miguel D; Cremonese, Edoardo; Delpierre, Nicolas; Galvagno, Marta; Law, Beverly E; Wohlfahrt, Georg; Black, T Andrew; Carvalhais, Nuno; Ceccherini, Guido; Chen, Jiquan; Gobron, Nadine; Koffi, Ernest; Munger, J William; Perez-Priego, Oscar; Robustelli, Monica; Tomelleri, Enrico; Cescatti, Alessandro
Understanding the environmental and biotic drivers of respiration at the ecosystem level is a prerequisite to further improve scenarios of the global carbon cycle. In this study we investigated the relevance of physiological phenology, defined as seasonal changes in plant physiological properties, for explaining the temporal dynamics of ecosystem respiration (RECO) in deciduous forests. Previous studies showed that empirical RECO models can be substantially improved by considering the biotic dependency of RECO on the short-term productivity (e.g., daily gross primary production, GPP) in addition to the well-known environmental controls of temperature and water availability. Here, we use a model-data integration approach to investigate the added value of physiological phenology, represented by the first temporal derivative of GPP, or alternatively of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation, for modeling RECO at 19 deciduous broadleaved forests in the FLUXNET La Thuile database. The new data-oriented semiempirical model leads to an 8% decrease in root mean square error (RMSE) and a 6% increase in the modeling efficiency (EF) of modeled RECO when compared to a version of the model that does not consider the physiological phenology. The reduction of the model-observation bias occurred mainly at the monthly time scale, and in spring and summer, while a smaller reduction was observed at the annual time scale. The proposed approach did not improve the model performance at several sites, and we identified as potential causes the plant canopy heterogeneity and the use of air temperature as a driver of ecosystem respiration instead of soil temperature. However, in the majority of sites the model-error remained unchanged regardless of the driving temperature. Overall, our results point toward the potential for improving current approaches for modeling RECO in deciduous forests by including the phenological cycle of the canopy. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons
Orlandi, F.; Bonofiglio, T.; Ruga, L.; Romano, B.; Fornaciari, M.
The present study was carried out in a phenological garden located near Perugia, central Italy, which contains vegetative clones of plant species, common to several international phenological gardens such as: Cornus sanguinea L.; Corylus avellana L.; Ligustrum vulgare L.; Robinia pseudoacacia L.; Salix acutifolia Willd.; Sambucus nigra L. The vegetative plant growth monitoring was realized week by week using common international keys: V3) bud break and leaf unfolding; V5) young unfolded leaf; V7) adult leaves; V8) beginning of leaf colouring. The phenological dates thus obtained provide a model of development for the different species in relationship to the fifteen-year period of observation (1997-2011). By a meteorological point of view the principal temperature and rain trends were studied showing as the highest anomalies during the study period were those recorded during the first months of the year (January and February). The phenological data evidenced a double trend behaviour considering the two central phases (V5-V7) in comparison to the other ones (V3-V8). In general, a quite invariance in the manifestation of the open bud phase and a contemporary advance of the young open leaves phase particularly from 2006 was recorded, with a shortening of the leaf opening period probably due to more rapid spring temperature increase in the last years. The delay tendency of V7 phase in particular evidenced the presence of growing leaves till summer weeks monitoring young leaves for a long time On the contrary, the V8 (autumn leaf colouring) phase tend to remain constant, with the exception of some species such as Corylus and Cornus which showed variations of this phase, showing as the signal for leaf colouring in fall is quite ambiguous and less evident. The lowest correlations between annual vegetative phases and temperature variations were manifested above all by two species (Sambucus nigra L. and Robinia pseudoacacia L.) for which the first leaf development phases
Henebry, Geoffrey M.; Betancourt, Julio L.
Third USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) and Research Coordination Network (RCN) Annual Meeting; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 5-9 October 2009; Directional climate change will have profound and lasting effects throughout society that are best understood through fundamental physical and biological processes. One such process is phenology: how the timing of recurring biological events is affected by biotic and abiotic forces. Phenology is an early and integrative indicator of climate change readily understood by nonspecialists. Phenology affects the planting, maturation, and harvesting of food and fiber; pollination; timing and magnitude of allergies and disease; recreation and tourism; water quantity and quality; and ecosystem function and resilience. Thus, phenology is the gateway to climatic effects on both managed and unmanaged ecosystems. Adaptation to climatic variability and change will require integration of phenological data and models with climatic forecasts at seasonal to decadal time scales. Changes in phenologies have already manifested myriad effects of directional climate change. As these changes continue, it is critical to establish a comprehensive suite of benchmarks that can be tracked and mapped at local to continental scales with observations and climate models.
Gienapp, P.; Hemerik, L.; Visser, M.E.
Climate change will likely affect the phenology of trophic levels differently and thereby disrupt the phenological synchrony between predators and prey. To predict this disruption of the synchrony under different climate change scenarios, good descriptive models for the phenology of the different species are necessary. Many phenological models are based on regressing the observed phenological event against temperatures measured over a fixed period. This is problematic, especially when used fo...
Steven P. Norman
Full Text Available Mountainous regions experience complex phenological behavior along climatic, vegetational and topographic gradients. In this paper, we use a MODIS time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI to understand the causes of variations in spring and autumn timing from 2000 to 2015, for a landscape renowned for its biological diversity. By filtering for cover type, topography and disturbance history, we achieved an improved understanding of the effects of seasonal weather variation on land surface phenology (LSP. Elevational effects were greatest in spring and were more important than site moisture effects. The spring and autumn NDVI of deciduous forests were found to increase in response to antecedent warm temperatures, with evidence of possible cross-seasonal lag effects, including possible accelerated green-up after cold Januarys and early brown-down following warm springs. Areas that were disturbed by the hemlock woolly adelgid and a severe tornado showed a weaker sensitivity to cross-year temperature and precipitation variation, while low severity wildland fire had no discernable effect. Use of ancillary datasets to filter for disturbance and vegetation type improves our understanding of vegetation’s phenological responsiveness to climate dynamics across complex environmental gradients.
Liang, Shouzhen; Shi, Ping; Li, Hongzhong
Urbanization and its resultant urban heat island provide a means for evaluating the impact of climate warming on vegetation phenology. To predict the possible response of vegetation phenology to rise of temperature, it is necessary to investigate factors influencing vegetation phenology in different climate zones. The start of growing season (SOS) in seven cities located in the middle temperate humid, semi-humid, semi-arid, and arid climate zones in China was extracted based on satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. The dynamics of urban SOS from 2000 to 2009 and the correlations between urban SOS and land surface temperatures (LST), precipitation, and sunshine duration, respectively, were analyzed. The results showed that there were no obvious change trends for urban SOS, and the heat island induced by urbanization can make SOS earlier in urban areas than that in adjacent rural areas. And the impact of altitude on SOS was also not negligible in regions with obvious altitude difference between urban and adjacent rural areas. Precipitation and temperature were two main natural factors influencing urban SOS in the middle temperate zone, but their impacts varied with climate zones. Only in Harbin city with lower sunshine duration in spring, sunshine duration had more significant impact than temperature and precipitation. Interference of human activities on urban vegetation was non-negligible, which can lower the dependence of urban SOS on natural climatic factors.
It all started with two words. Climate change. The carbon dioxide trading scheme, which was the politicians' idea on solving the number one global problem, followed. Four years ago, when the project was begun, there was no data for project initiation. Quotas for polluters mainly from energy production and other energy demanding industries were distributed based on spreadsheets, maximum output and expected future development of economies. Slovak companies have had a chance to profit from these arrangements since 2005. Many of them took advantage of the situation and turned the excessive quotas into an extraordinary profit which often reached hundreds of million Sk. The fact that the price of free quotas offered for sale dropped basically to 0 in 2006 only proved that the initial distribution was too generous. And the market reacted to the first official measurements of emissions. Slovak companies also contributed to this development. However, when planning the maximum emission volumes for 2008-2012 period, in spite of the fact that actual data were available, their expectations were not realistic. A glance at the figures in the proposal of the Ministry of Environment is sufficient to realize that there will be no major change in the future. And so for many Slovak companies business with a green future will remain green for the next five years. The state decided to give to selected companies even more free space as far as emissions are concerned. The most privileged companies can expect quotas increased by tens of percent. (author)
Spatial variability of plant phenology has widespread implications for landscape-level processes like herbivore foraging and the carbon cycle, but has traditionally only been quantified on small plots by human observers or at broader scales using coarse satellite imagery. Many ecological patterns vary with their scale of measurement, yet scale-dependence in vegetation emergence is poorly understood, particularly in Arctic environments. To investigate the effect of spatial grain choice on quantifying variability in tundra emergence phenology, we extracted greenness profiles from a network of 50 near-surface time-lapse cameras (Phenocams) across 40 km2 of West Greenland tundra in two years with contrasting abiotic conditions. Using this landscape-extent dataset paired with satellite-based MODIS multispectral time-series, we examined the influence of spatial grain choice on the observed timing, spatial variability, and landscape correlates of tundra green-up phenology. We matched the spatial grain of emergence time-series with three levels of ecological organization: vegetation functional-type patches (ecological `level' were analyzed simultaneously using a hierarchical Bayesian mixed modeling framework. Despite the contrasting abiotic conditions in each study year, the annual spatial variability in emergence across the broader landscape measured at fine grains was of a much greater magnitude than between year differences measured from any data-source. Coarser-grained MODIS derived metrics of vegetation greenup were much less variable between years, and were also significantly correlated with different landscape-level features than the finer grained Phenocam datasets. This first report of fine-grained vegetation emergence phenology across a broad tundra landscape extent (40 km2) reveals clear scale-dependent dynamics in the timing, variability, and environmental drivers of greenup, and offers empirical insights into how fine-grained processes may contribute to broader
Wingate, L.; Ogée, J.; Cremonese, E.; Filippa, G.; Mizunuma, T.; Migliavacca, M.; Moisy, C.; Wilkinson, M.; Moureaux, C.; Wohlfahrt, G.; Hammerle, A.; Hörtnagl, L.; Gimeno, C.; Porcar-Castell, A.; Galvagno, M.; Nakaji, T.; Morison, J.; Kolle, O.; Knohl, A.; Kutsch, W.; Kolari, P.; Nikinmaa, E.; Ibrom, A.; Gielen, B.; Eugster, W.; Balzarolo, M.; Papale, D.; Klumpp, K.; Köstner, B.; Grünwald, T.; Joffre, R.; Ourcival, J.-M.; Hellstrom, M.; Lindroth, A.; George, C.; Longdoz, B.; Genty, B.; Levula, J.; Heinesch, B.; Sprintsin, M.; Yakir, D.; Manise, T.; Guyon, D.; Ahrends, H.; Plaza-Aguilar, A.; Guan, J. H.; Grace, J.
Plant phenological development is orchestrated through subtle changes in photoperiod, temperature, soil moisture and nutrient availability. Presently, the exact timing of plant development stages and their response to climate and management practices are crudely represented in land surface models. As visual observations of phenology are laborious, there is a need to supplement long-term observations with automated techniques such as those provided by digital repeat photography at high temporal and spatial resolution. We present the first synthesis from a growing observational network of digital cameras installed on towers across Europe above deciduous and evergreen forests, grasslands and croplands, where vegetation and atmosphere CO2 fluxes are measured continuously. Using colour indices from digital images and using piecewise regression analysis of time series, we explored whether key changes in canopy phenology could be detected automatically across different land use types in the network. The piecewise regression approach could capture the start and end of the growing season, in addition to identifying striking changes in colour signals caused by flowering and management practices such as mowing. Exploring the dates of green-up and senescence of deciduous forests extracted by the piecewise regression approach against dates estimated from visual observations, we found that these phenological events could be detected adequately (RMSE pigment concentrations. Using the model we were able to explain why this spring maximum in green signal is often observed out of phase with the maximum period of canopy photosynthesis in ecosystems across Europe. Coupling such quasi-continuous digital records of canopy colours with co-located CO2 flux measurements will improve our understanding of how changes in growing season length are likely to shape the capacity of European ecosystems to sequester CO2 in the future.
Reed, G. T.; Topley, R.; Khokhar, A. Z.; Thompson, D. J.; Stanković, S.; Reynolds, S.; Chen, X.; Soper, N.; Mitchell, C. J.; Hu, Y.; Shen, L.; Martinez-Jimenez, G.; Healy, N.; Mailis, S.; Peacock, A. C.; Nedeljkovic, M.; Gardes, F. Y.; Soler Penades, J.; Alonso-Ramos, C.; Ortega-Monux, A.; Wanguemert-Perez, G.; Molina-Fernandez, I.; Cheben, P.; Mashanovich, G. Z.
This paper discusses some of the remaining challenges for silicon photonics, and how we at Southampton University have approached some of them. Despite phenomenal advances in the field of Silicon Photonics, there are a number of areas that still require development. For short to medium reach applications, there is a need to improve the power consumption of photonic circuits such that inter-chip, and perhaps intra-chip applications are viable. This means that yet smaller devices are required as well as thermally stable devices, and multiple wavelength channels. In turn this demands smaller, more efficient modulators, athermal circuits, and improved wavelength division multiplexers. The debate continues as to whether on-chip lasers are necessary for all applications, but an efficient low cost laser would benefit many applications. Multi-layer photonics offers the possibility of increasing the complexity and effectiveness of a given area of chip real estate, but it is a demanding challenge. Low cost packaging (in particular, passive alignment of fibre to waveguide), and effective wafer scale testing strategies, are also essential for mass market applications. Whilst solutions to these challenges would enhance most applications, a derivative technology is emerging, that of Mid Infra-Red (MIR) silicon photonics. This field will build on existing developments, but will require key enhancements to facilitate functionality at longer wavelengths. In common with mainstream silicon photonics, significant developments have been made, but there is still much left to do. Here we summarise some of our recent work towards wafer scale testing, passive alignment, multiplexing, and MIR silicon photonics technology.
Felber, Raphael; Stöckli, Sibylle; Calanca, Pierluigi
Temperature is a main climatic driver of plant phenology and the dominant abiotic factor directly affecting insect pests. Global warming is therefore expected to accelerate the development of plants and insects. Moreover, in the case of multivoltine pest species higher temperatures are expected to lead to the appearance of additional generations toward the end of the warm season. These changes could entail higher pest pressure and hence require an adaptation of pest management, but ultimately this would depend on whether plant and pest phenology remain synchronized or not. In this contribution we present an analysis of potential impacts of climate change on the phenology of the apple tree (Malus pumila L.), a fruit crop of economic relevance worldwide, and the codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.), one of its main pests. Key developmental stages of the apple and the codling moth were simulated by means of two heat summation models. The models were calibrated with lab and field data from Switzerland and subsequently run with observed weather data and various climate change scenarios. The time period between flowering termination and the harvest of the apples was compared to the appearance of the second and third generation of codling moth larvae to study the interlinkage between host and pest. To illustrate the potential for practical applications of the phenology models, we used spatial temperature data of Switzerland to produce risk maps that can serve as a basis for further studies and decision support.
Peng, D L; Huang, W J; Zhou, B; Li, C J; Wu, Y P; Yang, X H
Plant phenology is considered one of the most sensitive and easily observable natural indicators of climate change, though few studies have focused on the heterogeneities of phenology across the different vegetation types. In this study, we tried to find the phenological characteristics of the main vegetation types on the Tibetan Plateau. MCD12Q1 images over the Tibetan Plateau from 2001 to 2010 were used to extract the main vegetation types. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI) were calculated using surface reflectance values from the blue, red, near-infrared, short-wave infrared (SWIR) 6 (for LSIW6), and SWIR7 (for LSIW7) bands derived from MOD09A1 and used to explore the phenological characteristics of the main vegetation types on the Tibetan Plateau. The results showed that there were eight constant vegetation types on the Tibetan Plateau from 2001 to 2010 demonstrating multiple phenological characteristics. Evergreen needleleaf forest, evergreen broadleaf forest, and permanent wetland had the minimum NDVI values during the summer season, while open shrubland and grassland had the maximum NDVI/EVI values during this period. NDVI and EVI of cropland/natural vegetation had two peaks for their seasonal variations. EVI showed a more significant correlation with LSWI6/LSWI7 than NDVI. Compared to LSWI7, larger EVI values occurred in evergreen needleleaf forest, evergreen broadleaf forest, mixed forest, and permanent wetland, while smaller values occurred in shrubland and barren or sparsely vegetated cover, and nearly equal values occurred in grassland and cropland
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Lake and River Ice Phenology Database contains freeze and thaw/breakup dates as well as other descriptive ice cover data for 865 lakes and rivers in the...
Theresa Crimmins; Dudley. Hartel
Given your education, experience, frequent contact with trees, and honed observational skills, you as municipal foresters are well suited for tracking recurring seasonal events such as leafing, flowering, and fruiting. The study of these phenomena is known as phenology.
Nolan, V.P.; Weltzin, J.F.
Fourth USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) Research Coordination Network (RCN) Annual Meeting and Stakeholders Workshop; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 21-22 September 2010; Phenology, the study of recurring plant and animal life cycle events, is rapidly emerging as a fundamental approach for understanding how ecological systems respond to environmental variation and climate change. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; http://www.usanpn.org) is a large-scale network of governmental and nongovernmental organizations, academic institutions, resource management agencies, and tribes. The network is dedicated to conducting and promoting repeated and integrated plant and animal phenological observations, identifying linkages with other relevant biological and physical data sources, and developing and distributing the tools to analyze these data at local to national scales. The primary goal of the USA-NPN is to improve the ability of decision makers to design strategies for climate adaptation.
Busto, Montserrat; Cunillera, Jordi; de Yzaguirre, Xavier
The Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) began systematic phenological observation in 1932. Forty-four observers registered the phenophases of 45 plant species, the first or last sighting of six bird species and the first sighting of one species of butterfly. The study First results of phenological observation in Catalonia was published in 1936, showing the different behaviour of the vegetal species and birds according to geographical location. The SMC worked against the military fascist uprising during the Spanish Civil War (1936-1939). Therefore, once the war was finished, the organisation was quickly closed by the Franco dictatorship and the National Meteorological Service became the official institution in Spain. This organization created the Spanish Phenological Network in 1943 following similar standards to the former Catalan network. The reintroduction of democracy and the return of the Catalan self-government structures (1977) allowed the re-foundation of the SMC in 1996. The Climatology Department needed phenological data to complement the study of climatic indicators and realised the fragile situation of phenology observations in Catalonia, with very few operational series. Following a preliminary analysis of the different systems of recording and saving data, the Phenological network of Catalonia (Fenocat) was re-established in 2013. Fenocat is an active partner of the Pan European Phenology Database (PEP725) that uses BBCH-scale coding and the USA National Phenology Network observation system. It is an example of citizen science. As at December 2016, Fenocat had recorded more than 450,000 data. The extension of summer climatic conditions in the Western Mediterranean region has resulted in repetition of phenopases in the same year, such as the second flowering of the holm oak (Quercus ilex), almond tree (Prunus dulcis) and sweet cherry tree (Prunus avium), or the delay in the departure data of the swallow (Hirundo rustica) and hoopoe (Upupa epops
Richardson, Andrew D. [Harvard College, Cambridge, MA (United States)
The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digital cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.
Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi; Siebert, Stefan; Hüging, Hubert; Ewert, Frank
Changing crop phenology is considered an important bio-indicator of climate change, with the recent warming trend causing an advancement in crop phenology. Little is known about the contributions of changes in sowing dates and cultivars to long-term trends in crop phenology, particularly for winter crops such as winter wheat. Here, we analyze a long-term (1952-2013) dataset of phenological observations across western Germany and observations from a two-year field experiment to directly compare the phenologies of winter wheat cultivars released between 1950 and 2006. We found a 14-18% decline in the temperature sum required from emergence to flowering for the modern cultivars of winter wheat compared with the cultivars grown in the 1950s and 1960s. The trends in the flowering day obtained from a phenology model parameterized with the field observations showed that changes in the mean temperature and cultivar properties contributed similarly to the trends in the flowering day, whereas the effects of changes in the sowing day were negligible. We conclude that the single-cultivar concept commonly used in climate change impact assessments results in an overestimation of winter wheat sensitivity to increasing temperature, which suggests that studies on climate change effects should consider changes in cultivars.
Sütterlin, Melanie; Duguay-Tetzlaff, Anke; Wunderle, Stefan
Ice cover on lakes plays an essential role in the physical, chemical, and biological processes of freshwater systems (e.g., ice duration controls the seasonal heat budget of lakes), and it also has many economic implications (e.g., for hydroelectricity, transportation, winter tourism). The variability and trends in the seasonal cycle of lake ice (e.g., timing of freeze-up and break-up) represent robust and direct indicators of climate change; they therefore emphasize the importance of monitoring lake ice phenology. Satellite remote sensing has proven its great potential for detecting and measuring the ice cover on lakes. Different remote sensing systems have been successfully used to collect recordings of freeze-up, break-up, and ice thickness and increase the spatial and temporal coverage of ground-based observations. Therefore, within the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Swiss project, "Integrated Monitoring of Ice in Selected Swiss Lakes," initiated by MeteoSwiss, satellite images from various sensors and different approaches are used and compared to perform investigations aimed at integrated monitoring of lake ice in Switzerland and contributing to the collection of lake ice phenology recordings. Within the framework of this project, the Remote Sensing Research Group of the University of Bern (RSGB) utilizes data acquired in the fine-resolution imagery (I) bands (1-5) of the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor that is mounted onboard the SUOMI-NPP. Visible and near-infrared reflectances, as well as thermal infrared-derived lake surface water temperatures (LSWT), are used to retrieve lake ice phenology dates. The VIIRS instrument, which combines a high temporal resolution ( 2 times per day) with a reasonable spatial resolution (375 m), is equipped with a single broad-band thermal I-channel (I05). Thus, a single-channel LSWT retrieval algorithm is employed to correct for the atmospheric influence. The single channel algorithm applied in
Keogan, Katharine; Daunt, Francis; Wanless, Sarah; Phillips, Richard A.; Walling, Craig A.; Agnew, Philippa; Ainley, David G.; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Ballard, Grant; Barrett, Robert T.; Barton, Kerry J.; Bech, Claus; Becker, Peter; Berglund, Per-Arvid; Bollache, Loïc; Bond, Alexander L.; Bouwhuis, Sandra; Bradley, Russell W.; Burr, Zofia M.; Camphuysen, Kees; Catry, Paulo; Chiaradia, Andre; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Signe; Cuthbert, Richard; Dehnhard, Nina; Descamps, Sébastien; Diamond, Tony; Divoky, George; Drummond, Hugh; Dugger, Katie M.; Dunn, Michael J.; Emmerson, Louise; Erikstad, Kjell Einar; Fort, Jérôme; Fraser, William; Genovart, Meritxell; Gilg, Olivier; González-Solís, Jacob; Granadeiro, José Pedro; Grémillet, David; Hansen, Jannik; Hanssen, Sveinn A.; Harris, Mike; Hedd, April; Hinke, Jefferson; Igual, José Manuel; Jahncke, Jaime; Jones, Ian; Kappes, Peter J.; Lang, Johannes; Langset, Magdalene; Lescroël, Amélie; Lorentsen, Svein-Hâkon; Lyver, Phil O'B.; Mallory, Mark; Moe, Børge; Montevecchi, William A.; Monticelli, David; Mostello, Carolyn; Newell, Mark; Nicholson, Lisa; Nisbet, Ian; Olsson, Olof; Oro, Daniel; Pattison, Vivian; Poisbleau, Maud; Pyk, Tanya; Quintana, Flavio; Ramos, Jaime A.; Ramos, Raül; Reiertsen, Tone Kirstin; Rodríguez, Cristina; Ryan, Peter; Sanz-Aguilar, Ana; Schmidt, Niels M.; Shannon, Paula; Sittler, Benoit; Southwell, Colin; Surman, Christopher; Svagelj, Walter S.; Trivelpiece, Wayne; Warzybok, Pete; Watanuki, Yutaka; Weimerskirch, Henri; Wilson, Peter R.; Wood, Andrew G.; Phillimore, Albert B.; Lewis, Sue
Reproductive timing in many taxa plays a key role in determining breeding productivity1, and is often sensitive to climatic conditions2. Current climate change may alter the timing of breeding at different rates across trophic levels, potentially resulting in temporal mismatch between the resource requirements of predators and their prey3. This is of particular concern for higher-trophic-level organisms, whose longer generation times confer a lower rate of evolutionary rescue than primary producers or consumers4. However, the disconnection between studies of ecological change in marine systems makes it difficult to detect general changes in the timing of reproduction5. Here, we use a comprehensive meta-analysis of 209 phenological time series from 145 breeding populations to show that, on average, seabird populations worldwide have not adjusted their breeding seasons over time (-0.020 days yr-1) or in response to sea surface temperature (SST) (-0.272 days °C-1) between 1952 and 2015. However, marked between-year variation in timing observed in resident species and some Pelecaniformes and Suliformes (cormorants, gannets and boobies) may imply that timing, in some cases, is affected by unmeasured environmental conditions. This limited temperature-mediated plasticity of reproductive timing in seabirds potentially makes these top predators highly vulnerable to future mismatch with lower-trophic-level resources2.
Johnson, Matthew; Everall, Nicholas; Wilby, Robert
Water temperature in rivers is critical to aquatic life. Climate and environmental change can elevate river temperatures to levels that stress fish, but impacts on other aquatic organisms are not well understood. In particular, rising temperatures are expected to alter the phenology of aquatic insects at levels substantially below those required to stress fish species. The phenology of the mayfly Ephemera danica, a large burrowing species that is widespread throughout Europe, is known to be sensitive to temperature change. To assess the temporal and spatial variability in mayfly emergence, E. danica were monitored at two reaches in the River Dove, English Peak District over the period 2007 to 2013. Variations in Growing Degree Days (GDDs) were modelled for an upstream site with an annual temperature range in excess of 15 ° C (Beresford Dale) and a downstream site, dominated by near constant discharges of cool groundwater with an annual range less than 8 ° C (Dovedale). The emergence of E. danica was strongly related to GDDs at each site. E. danica usually remains in an aquatic larval stage for two years before emerging in its adult, terrestrial form. However, after particularly warm summers in Beresford Dale, E. danica was recorded to emerge after only one year in its aquatic form. Following the particularly wet/cold year of 2012, E. danica began to revert back to a bi-annual cycle. In Dovedale, an average of 374 fewer GDDs were accumulated in comparison to Beresford Dale. As a result, E. danica maintained a two-year growth cycle throughout the monitoring period despite the phenology changes observed 8 km upstream at Beresford. Changes to insect phenology are significant because populations with a one-year cycle are potentially more vulnerable to adverse weather when the majority of the population is in terrestrial form. Also, altering the growth, development and size of insects affects reproductive success with implications for population dynamics. Data from the
Full Text Available Updated extent, area, and spatial distribution of tropical evergreen forests from inventory data provides valuable knowledge for research of the carbon cycle, biodiversity, and ecosystem services in tropical regions. However, acquiring these data in mountainous regions requires labor-intensive, often cost-prohibitive field protocols. Here, we report about validated methods to rapidly identify the spatial distribution of tropical forests, and obtain accurate extent estimates using phenology-based procedures that integrate the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS and Landsat imagery. Firstly, an analysis of temporal profiles of annual time-series MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI, and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI was developed to identify the key phenology phase for extraction of tropical evergreen forests in five typical lands cover types. Secondly, identification signatures of tropical evergreen forests were selected and their related thresholds were calculated based on Landsat NDVI, EVI, and LSWI extracted from ground true samples of different land cover types during the key phenology phase. Finally, a map of tropical evergreen forests was created by a pixel-based thresholding. The developed methods were tested in Xishuangbanna, China, and the results show: (1 Integration of Landsat and MODIS images performs well in extracting evergreen forests in tropical complex mountainous regions. The overall accuracy of the resulting map of the case study was 92%; (2 Annual time series of high-temporal-resolution remote sensing images (MODIS can effectively be used for identification of the key phenology phase (between Julian Date 20 and 120 to extract tropical evergreen forested areas through analysis of NDVI, EVI, and LSWI of different land cover types; (3 NDVI and LSWI are two effective metrics (NDVI ≥ 0.670 and 0.447 ≥ LSWI ≥ 0.222 to depict evergreen forests from other land cover
Seyednasrollah, B.; Milliman, T. E.; Hufkens, K.; Kosmala, M.; Richardson, A. D.
Near-surface remote sensing and in situ photography are powerful tools to study how climate change and climate variability influence vegetation phenology and the associated seasonal rhythms of green-up and senescence. The rapidly-growing PhenoCam network has been using in situ digital repeat photography to study phenology in almost 500 locations around the world, with an emphasis on North America. However, extracting time series data from multiple years of half-hourly imagery - while each set of images may contain several regions of interest (ROI's), corresponding to different species or vegetation types - is not always straightforward. Large volumes of data require substantial processing time, and changes (either intentional or accidental) in camera field of view requires adjustment of ROI masks. Here, we introduce and present "DrawROI" as an interactive web-based application for imagery from PhenoCam. DrawROI can also be used offline, as a fully independent toolkit that significantly facilitates extraction of phenological data from any stack of digital repeat photography images. DrawROI provides a responsive environment for phenological scientists to interactively a) delineate ROIs, b) handle field of view (FOV) shifts, and c) extract and export time series data characterizing image color (i.e. red, green and blue channel digital numbers for the defined ROI). The application utilizes artificial intelligence and advanced machine learning techniques and gives user the opportunity to redraw new ROIs every time an FOV shift occurs. DrawROI also offers a quality control flag to indicate noisy data and images with low quality due to presence of foggy weather or snow conditions. The web-based application significantly accelerates the process of creating new ROIs and modifying pre-existing ROI in the PhenoCam database. The offline toolkit is presented as an open source R-package that can be used with similar datasets with time-lapse photography to obtain more data for
Xie, Y.; Wilson, A. M.
Plant phenology studies typically focus on the beginning and end of the growing season in temperate forests. We know too little about fall foliage peak coloration, which is a bioindicator of plant response in autumn to environmental changes, an important visual cue in fall associated with animal activities, and a key element in fall foliage ecotourism. Spatiotemporal changes in timing of fall foliage peak coloration of temperate forests and the associated environmental controls are not well understood. In this study, we examined multiple color indices to estimate Land Surface Phenology (LSP) of fall foliage peak coloration of deciduous forest in the northeastern USA using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily imagery from 2000 to 2015. We used long term phenology ground observations to validate our estimated LSP, and found that Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI) and Plant Senescence Reflectance Index (PSRI) were good metrics to estimate peak and end of leaf coloration period of deciduous forest. During the past 16 years, the length of period with peak fall foliage color of deciduous forest at southern New England and northern Appalachian forests regions became longer (0.3 7.7 days), mainly driven by earlier peak coloration. Northern New England, southern Appalachian forests and Ozark and Ouachita mountains areas had shorter period (‒0.2 ‒9.2 days) mainly due to earlier end of leaf coloration. Changes in peak and end of leaf coloration not only were associated with changing temperature in spring and fall, but also to drought and heat in summer, and heavy precipitation in both summer and fall. The associations between leaf peak coloration phenology and climatic variations were not consistent among ecoregions. Our findings suggested divergent change patterns in fall foliage peak coloration phenology in deciduous forests, and improved our understanding in the environmental control on timing of fall foliage color change.
Chuine, Isabelle; Bonhomme, Marc; Legave, Jean-Michel; García de Cortázar-Atauri, Iñaki; Charrier, Guillaume; Lacointe, André; Améglio, Thierry
The onset of the growing season of trees has been earlier by 2.3 days per decade during the last 40 years in temperate Europe because of global warming. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is, however, not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud endodormancy, and, on the other hand, higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cell growth afterward. Different process-based models have been developed in the last decades to predict the date of budbreak of woody species. They predict that global warming should delay or compromise endodormancy break at the species equatorward range limits leading to a delay or even impossibility to flower or set new leaves. These models are classically parameterized with flowering or budbreak dates only, with no information on the endodormancy break date because this information is very scarce. Here, we evaluated the efficiency of a set of phenological models to accurately predict the endodormancy break dates of three fruit trees. Our results show that models calibrated solely with budbreak dates usually do not accurately predict the endodormancy break date. Providing endodormancy break date for the model parameterization results in much more accurate prediction of this latter, with, however, a higher error than that on budbreak dates. Most importantly, we show that models not calibrated with endodormancy break dates can generate large discrepancies in forecasted budbreak dates when using climate scenarios as compared to models calibrated with endodormancy break dates. This discrepancy increases with mean annual temperature and is therefore the strongest after 2050 in the southernmost regions. Our results claim for the urgent need of massive measurements of endodormancy break dates in forest and fruit trees to yield more robust projections of phenological changes in a near future. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Semenchuk, Philipp R.; Gillespie, Mark A K; Rumpf, Sabine B.
The duration of specific periods within a plant's life cycle are critical for plant growth and performance. In the High Arctic, the start of many of these phenological periods is determined by snowmelt date, which may change in a changing climate. It has been suggested that the end of these perio...... be considered an evolutionary trait leading to disadvantages compared with aperiodic species and we conclude that the mesic and heath vegetation types in Svalbard are at risk of being outcompeted by invading, aperiodic species from milder biomes....
Full Text Available For a retrospective period of 110 years between 1901 and 2010 (observed data, and for the subsequent future period between 2011 and 2100 we calculated the phenological development (bud burst, harvest ripeness, and in particular the spring frost risk (frost after bud burst, as one important derived variable for grapevine (Vitis vinifera L. cv Riesling for the whole of Germany. For the future climate we included two different scenarios (RCP8.5, RCP2.6 each of them containing a triple set with minimum, medium and maximum temperature increase. The time period between 1981 and 2010 as the last three decades in the observed data was chosen as reference. In general we found an acceleration of the phenological development (all main phases mainly beginning in the late 1980s. For the three-decade period between 2031 and 2060 this acceleration will reach 11±3$11\\pm3$ days in the RCP8.5-scenario. The acceleration for the other stages behaved similarly and results in an earlier harvest ripeness of 13±1$13\\pm1$ days. Since a warmer spring in general leads to earlier bud burst, but does not reduce the risk of frost events during this period in the same manner, changes in the risk of spring frost damage were relatively small. For the coming decades this risk will not decrease for all traditional German viticultural regions in the RCP8.5-scenarios; on the contrary, our results suggest it is likely to increase. The results showed an increasing spring frost risk not only for the debated “upcoming” potential viticultural areas in eastern Germany, an effect which will partly also reach the southernmost viticultural areas. This effect in northern and eastern Germany is due to earlier bud burst together with the stronger continental influence, but for the southern and western regions of Germany is mainly due to the even earlier bud burst. This could modify the regionally nuanced character of German wines.
Samplonius, Jelmer M; Both, Christiaan
Predicting habitat quality is a major challenge for animals selecting a breeding patch, because it affects reproductive success. Breeding site selection may be based on previous experience, or on social information from the density and success of competitors with an earlier phenology. Variation in animal breeding phenology is often correlated with variation in habitat quality. Generally, animals breed earlier in high-quality habitats that allow them to reach a nutritional threshold required for breeding earlier or avoid nest predation. In addition, habitat quality may affect phenological overlap between species and thereby interspecific competition. Therefore, we hypothesized that competitor breeding phenology can be used as social cue by settling migrants to locate high-quality breeding sites. To test this hypothesis, we experimentally advanced and delayed hatching phenology of two resident tit species on the level of study plots and studied male and female settlement patterns of migratory pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca. The manipulations were assigned at random in two consecutive years, and treatments were swapped between years in sites that were used in both years. In both years, males settled in equal numbers across treatments, but later arriving females avoided pairing with males in delayed phenology plots. Moreover, male pairing probability declined strongly with arrival date on the breeding grounds. Our results demonstrate that competitor phenology may be used to assess habitat quality by settling migrants, but we cannot pinpoint the exact mechanism (e.g. resource quality, predation pressure or competition) that has given rise to this pattern. In addition, we show that opposing selection pressures for arrival timing may give rise to different social information availabilities between sexes. We discuss our findings in the context of climate warming, social information use and the evolution of protandry in migratory animals. © 2017 The Authors. Journal
Enquist, Carolyn A F; Kellermann, Jherime L; Gerst, Katharine L; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J
Natural resource professionals in the United States recognize that climate-induced changes in phenology can substantially affect resource management. This is reflected in national climate change response plans recently released by major resource agencies. However, managers on-the-ground are often unclear about how to use phenological information to inform their management practices. Until recently, this was at least partially due to the lack of broad-based, standardized phenology data collection across taxa and geographic regions. Such efforts are now underway, albeit in very early stages. Nonetheless, a major hurdle still exists: phenology-linked climate change research has focused more on describing broad ecological changes rather than making direct connections to local to regional management concerns. To help researchers better design relevant research for use in conservation and management decision-making processes, we describe phenology-related research topics that facilitate "actionable" science. Examples include research on evolution and phenotypic plasticity related to vulnerability, the demographic consequences of trophic mismatch, the role of invasive species, and building robust ecological forecast models. Such efforts will increase phenology literacy among on-the-ground resource managers and provide information relevant for short- and long-term decision-making, particularly as related to climate response planning and implementing climate-informed monitoring in the context of adaptive management. In sum, we argue that phenological information is a crucial component of the resource management toolbox that facilitates identification and evaluation of strategies that will reduce the vulnerability of natural systems to climate change. Management-savvy researchers can play an important role in reaching this goal.
Full Text Available Analysis of the mean date of first captures and median arrival dates of spring migration for 34 species of birds at Eilat, Israel, revealed that the earlier a species migrates through Eilat, the greater is the inter-annual variation in the total time of its passage. Birds arrive during spring migration in Eilat in four structured and independent waves. The annual fluctuation in the initial arrival dates (initial capture dates and median dates (median date of all captures, not including recaptures, did not depend on the length of the migratory route. This implies that migrants crossing the Sahara desert depart from their winter quarters on different Julian days in different years. We suggest that negative correlations between the median date of the spring migration of early and late migrants depends upon the easterly (Hamsin wind period. Moreover, we believe that the phenology of all birds during spring migration in Eilat is possibly also determined by external factors such as weather conditions on the African continent or global climatic processes in the Northern hemisphere. Orphean Warblers (Sylvia hortensis show a strong positive correlation (rs=-0.502 of initial capture date with calendar years, whereas other species such as Barred Warbler (S. nisoria; rs = -0.391 and Spotted Flycatcher (Muscicapa striata; rs = -0.398 display an insignificant trend. The Dead Sea Sparrow (Passer moabiticus and Red-Backed Shrike (Lanius collurio are positively correlated regarding initial arrival date and medians of spring migration.
Ren, Shilong; Chen, Xiaoqiu; An, Shuai
Plant phenology is a key link for controlling interactions between climate change and biogeochemical cycles. Satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) has been extensively used to detect plant phenology at regional scales. Here, we introduced a new vegetation index, plant senescence reflectance index (PSRI), and determined PSRI-derived start (SOS) and end (EOS) dates of the growing season using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data from 2000 to 2011 in the Inner Mongolian Grassland. Then, we validated the reliability of PSRI-derived SOS and EOS dates using NDVI-derived SOS and EOS dates. Moreover, we conducted temporal and spatial correlation analyses between PSRI-derived SOS/EOS date and climatic factors and revealed spatiotemporal patterns of PSRI-derived SOS and EOS dates across the entire research region at pixel scales. Results show that PSRI has similar performance with NDVI in extracting SOS and EOS dates in the Inner Mongolian Grassland. Precipitation regime is the key climate driver of interannual variation of grassland phenology, while temperature and precipitation regimes are the crucial controlling factors of spatial differentiation of grassland phenology. Thus, PSRI-derived vegetation phenology can effectively reflect land surface vegetation dynamics and its response to climate change. Moreover, a significant linear trend of PSRI-derived SOS and EOS dates was detected only at small portions of pixels, which is consistent with that of greenup and brownoff dates of herbaceous plant species in the Inner Mongolian Grassland. Overall, PSRI is a useful and robust metric in addition to NDVI for monitoring land surface grassland phenology.
Seasonal changes in aboveground primary production (i.e. phenology) are influenced by environmental conditions with implications for land-atmosphere interactions, carbon cycling, and agricultural production. Monitoring phenology and quantifying seasonal patterns across spatially extensive grasslands...
Wessels, Konrad J
Full Text Available What are the patterns of remotely sensed vegetation phenology, including their inter-annual variability, across South Africa? What are the phenological attributes that contribute most to distinguishing the different biomes? How well can...
Valtonen, A. K.; Ayres, M. P.
Changes in phenology are a crucial manifestation of climate change in ecological systems. Notable changes in phenology have been reported especially for high latitude systems. Are high latitude systems more sensitive to climate change because the resident species have higher physiological sensitivity to temperature? In this work, we compared the fit of three phenological models (thermal sum, photoperiod, solar day) to the time-series data of > 300 species of nocturnal moths collected with light-traps across Finland during years 1993-2004. We fitted the models separately to the data from southern and northern part of the country. We found strong support for thermal controls of phenology in 68% of the modeled species (and generations) in south and 60% in north, suggesting that at least two thirds of the species within this community are likely to shift their phenology along with rising temperatures in the future. Photoperiodic controls were more common in the north, possibly because these populations experience greater selective pressure from shorter growing seasons. Contrary to our expectations there was no tendency for greater thermal sensitivity in northern populations among species with strong thermal control of phenology. However, approximately half of the species had higher development rates at moderate temperatures (15°C) in the north, which is presumably a response to short growing seasons. When 3°C higher hourly temperatures were fitted to the thermal sum models of species with strong thermal control of phenology, southern populations shifted their phenology on average by 15.2 days (range 3.9 and 30.1) and northern populations by 11.4 days (range 2.6 and 26.7). We believe that these predictions could be improved in future with experimental studies on a variety of species, resolving species' and population specific thermal sensitivity and the control mechanisms of diapause termination in the spring. Yet, experiments on hundreds of species, like studied here
Losleben, M. V.; Crimmins, T. M.; Weltzin, J. F.
On January 1, 2009, the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN, www.usanpn.org) launched the USA-NPN Biophysical Program. The overarching goal of the Biophysical Program (BP) is to link phenology, the study of recurring plant and animal life cycle stages, with climate through the integration of phenology observations, meteorological, and spectral remote sensing measurements at sites across a broad a spectrum of environments. Phenology is critical for understanding a changing world. Many of the recurring plant and animal life cycle stages such as leafing and flowering of plants, maturation of agricultural crops, emergence of insects, and migration of birds are sensitive to climatic variation and change, and are simple to observe and record. Such changes can effect, for example, timing mismatches between the emergence of food sources and the arrival of migrating populations, or create new disease and invasive species vectors via increasingly suitable growing seasons relative to the climatic life cycle requirements of hosts or the organisms themselves. New vectors or crashing populations can have major repercussions on entire ecosystems and regional economics. Thus, to track phenology and build a national database, the USA-NPN is providing standard phenology monitoring protocols. Further, the integration of weather stations with phenological data provides an opportunity to understand how a changing climate is altering phenology. Thus, the USA-NPN Biophysical Program is developing an integrative biology-climate site template for widespread dissemination, in collaboration with the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL, http://rmbl.org/rockymountainbiolab/). This poster presents the USA-NPN Biophysical Program, and the results of the collaboration with RMBL during the summer of 2009, including the installation of an elevational network of climate stations. The National Science Foundation’s Major Research Instrumentation (NSF’s MRI) program provides funding
Kalvāns, Andis; Sīle, Tija; Kalvāne, Gunta
The accuracy of the operational models can be improved by using observational data to shift the model state in a process called data assimilation. Here, a data assimilation approach using the temperature similarity to control the extent of extrapolation of point-like phenological observations is explored. A degree-day model is used to describe the spring phenology of the bird cherry Padus racemosa in the Baltic region in 2014. The model results are compared to phenological observations that are expressed on a continuous scale based on the BBCH code. The air temperature data are derived from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. It is assumed that the phenology at two points with a similar temperature pattern should be similar. The root mean squared difference (RMSD) between the time series of hourly temperature data over a selected time interval are used to measure the temperature similarity of any two points. A sigmoidal function is used to scale the RMSD into a weight factor that determines how the modelled and observed phenophases are combined in the data assimilation. The parameter space for determining the weight of observations is explored. It is found that data assimilation improved the accuracy of the phenological model and that the value of the point-like observations can be increased through using a weighting function based on environmental parameters, such as temperature.
Searching for adaptive traits in genetic resources - phenology based approach Abdallah Bari, Kenneth Street, Eddy De Pauw, Jalal Eddin Omari, and Chandra M. Biradar International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas, Rabat Institutes, Rabat, Morocco Phenology is an important plant trait not only for assessing and forecasting food production but also for searching in genebanks for adaptive traits. Among the phenological parameters we have been considering to search for such adaptive and rare traits are the onset (sowing period) and the seasonality (growing period). Currently an application is being developed as part of the focused identification of germplasm strategy (FIGS) approach to use climatic data in order to identify crop growing seasons and characterize them in terms of onset and duration. These approximations of growing period characteristics can then be used to estimate flowering and maturity dates for dryland crops, such as wheat, barley, faba bean, lentils and chickpea, and assess, among others, phenology-related traits such as days to heading [dhe] and grain filling period [gfp]. The approach followed here is based on first calculating long term average daily temperatures by fitting a curve to the monthly data over days from beginning of the year. Prior to the identification of these phenological stages the onset is extracted first from onset integer raster GIS layers developed based on a model of the growing period that considers both moisture and temperature limitations. The paper presents some examples of real applications of the approach to search for rare and adaptive traits.
Full Text Available Phenology refers to the study of natural cyclic events in the life of plants and animals. Phenophasis variations are the most sensitive responses to the climate changes. Knowledge of phenology is also important for rehabilitation and nursery management. In this study, phenology of Zygophyllum atriplicoides was observed in Mouteh area, Isfahan province. At first, 20 shrubs were randomly selected and then vital phenological events, such as bud developing, leaf emerging, flowering, fruiting, leaf shedding, seed formation, seed scattering and plant latent state were recorded monthly during a year. Then, pictorial time series of the plant was developed. The percentage of the three color channels (red - green - blue (RGB were extracted in every picture and for every part of the plant, such as leaves, stems and fruits. Next, they were separately analyzed. The phenological records revealed that the plant buds start to grow from late March until September. Moreover, flowering occurs in April, and peak fruiting follows in May. Seeds appear in June and scatter in July. There is a clear correlation between notable phenophasis of the plant and climatic factors such as rainfall and temperature.
Crimmins, T. M.; Lebuhn, G.; Miller-Rushing, A. J.
The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) is a recently established network that brings together citizen scientists, government agencies, non-profit groups, educators and students of all ages to monitor the impacts of climate change on plants and animals in the United States. Though a handful of observers participated in the USA-NPN monitoring program in 2008, 2009 was the first truly operational year for the program. With a goal of 100,000 observers for this nationwide effort, we are working to engage participants both directly and through established organizations and agencies. The first year of operational monitoring and program advertisement has yielded many insights that are shaping how we move forward. In this presentation, we will highlight some of our most prominent “lessons learned” from our experience engaging participants, mainly through partnerships with organizations and agencies. One successful partnership that the USA-NPN established in 2009 was with the Great Sunflower Project, a citizen science effort focused on tracking bee activity. By piggy-backing on this established program, we were able to invite tens of thousands of self-selected individuals to learn about plant phenology and to contribute to the program. A benefit to the Great Sunflower Project was that monitoring phenology of their sunflowers gave observers something to do while waiting for the plant to attract bees. Observers’ experiences, data, and comments from the 2009 season are yielding insights into how this partnership can be strengthened and USA-NPN and GSP goals can more effectively be met. A second partnership initiated in 2009 was with the US National Park Service (NPS). Partnering with federal and state agencies offers great opportunities for data collection and education. In return, agencies stand to gain information that can directly influence management decisions. However, such efforts necessitate careful planning and execution. Together the USA-NPN and NPS drafted
Taehee Hwang; Conghe Song; James Vose; Lawrence Band
Forest canopy phenology is an important constraint on annual water and carbon budgets, and responds to regional interannual climate variation. In steep terrain, there are complex spatial variations in phenology due to topographic influences on microclimate, community composition, and available soil moisture. In this study, we investigate spatial patterns of phenology...
Gienapp, P.; Hemerik, L.; Visser, M.E.
Climate change will likely affect the phenology of trophic levels differently and thereby disrupt the phenological synchrony between predators and prey. To predict this disruption of the synchrony under different climate change scenarios, good descriptive models for the phenology of the different
van Asch, M.; van Tienderen, P.H.; Holleman, L.J.M.; Visser, M.E.
Climate change has led to an advance in phenology in many species. Synchrony in phenology between different species within a food chain may be disrupted if an increase in temperature affects the phenology of the different species differently, as is the case in the winter moth egg hatch - oak bud
Van Asch, M.; van Tienderen, P.H.; Holleman, L.J.M.; Visser, M.E.
Climate change has led to an advance in phenology in many species. Synchrony in phenology between different species within a food chain may be disrupted if an increase in temperature affects the phenology of the different species differently, as is the case in the winter moth egg hatch–oak bud burst
James A. Powell; Barbara J. Bentz
It is expected that a significant impact of global warming will be disruption of phenology as environmental cues become disassociated from their selective impacts. However there are few, if any, models directly connecting phenology with population growth rates. In this paper we discuss connecting a distributional model describing mountain pine beetle phenology with a...
Thackeray, Stephen J.; Henrys, Peter; Hemming, Deborah
Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate...... Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic...... groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing...
Malygina, Natalia; Barlyaeva, Tatiana; Blyakharchuk, Tatiana; Mitrofanova, Elena; Lovtskaya, Olga; Nenasheva, Galina; Otgonbayar, Demberel; Papina, Tatiana; Ryabchinskaya, Natalia; Sokolov, Andrey
The last decades of the past century showed noticeable climate changes in many parts of the Earth (IPCC, 2007). Numerous models suggest that the climate changes will continue, showing a variable intensity especially in mountain regions. Altai Mountains, located at the boundary of taiga, desert, and semiarid regions of Central Asia, are exposed to intensive climatic and environmental changes. Analysis of changes in phenological parameters is the simplest process for track changes in the ecology of species in response to climate change. We present climatic characteristic and statistical analysis changes of thermal and precipitation regimes in Altai Mountains (Russian and Mongolian Altai), and the response of phenological parameters to these changes. The close correlation between temperature series of the Russian and northern part of Mongolian Altai is determined. At the same time, a correlation between precipitation data is observed only for the cold (November - March) seasons. It was found that the rate of temperature increase for the period under consideration (1940-2012) ranged from 0.15 to 0.55 ° C/10 years, and the most significant increase was registered during the cold seasons. An increase of annual means of precipitation is in the range from 2.32 to 6.37 mm / 10 years. The maximal increase (29 mm / 10 years) was observed in the data from the Kara-Tyureck station, whose location is the highest one of the considered stations (2600 m). During the maximal warming (1980-1999), a 2-4.5 times increase of annual average temperature was observed as compared to the period of 1940 - 1979. The amount of precipitation is increased for Ust'-Koksa (5 times) and Ulgiy (2 times) stations, but it is 3 times lower for Kosh-Agach and Kara-Tyureck stations. The results of the correlation analysis of temperature and precipitation data for the analyzed Russian and Mongolian Altai stations were confirmed and detailed by the wavelet and wavelet coherence / phase analysis. The
Jochner, Susanne; Menzel, Annette
Although recent global warming trends in air temperature are not as pronounced as those observed only one decade ago, global mean temperature is still at a very high level. Does plant phenology – which is believed to be a suitable indicator of climate change – respond in a similar way, that is, does it still mirror recent temperature variations? We explored in detail long-term flowering onset dates of snowdrop, cherry, and lime tree and relevant spring temperatures at three sites in Germany (1901–2012) using the Bayesian multiple change-point approach. We investigated whether mean spring temperature changes were amplified or slowed down in the past decade and how plant phenology responded to the most recent temperature changes. Incorporating records with different end points (i.e., 2002 and 2012), we compared differences in trends and inferred possible differences caused by extrapolating phenological and meteorological data. The new multiple-change point approach is characterized by an enhanced structure and greater flexibility compared to the one change point model. However, the highest model probabilities for phenological (meteorological) records were still obtained for the one change point (linear) model. Marked warming trends in the recent decade were only revealed for mean temperatures of March to May, here better described with one or two change point models. In the majority of cases analyzed, changes in temperatures were well mirrored by phenological changes. However, temperatures in March to May were linked to less strongly advancing onset dates for lime tree flowering during the period 1901-2012, pointing to the likely influence of photoperiodic constraints or unfulfilled chilling requirements. Due to the slowdown of temperature increase, analyses conducted on records ending in 2002 demonstrated distinct differences when compared with records ending in 2012. Extrapolation of trends could therefore (along with the choice of the statistical method
Jochner, Susanne; Menzel, Annette
Although recent global warming trends in air temperature are not as pronounced as those observed only one decade ago, global mean temperature is still at a very high level. Does plant phenology - which is believed to be a suitable indicator of climate change - respond in a similar way, that is, does it still mirror recent temperature variations? We explored in detail long-term flowering onset dates of snowdrop, cherry, and lime tree and relevant spring temperatures at three sites in Germany (1901-2012) using the Bayesian multiple change-point approach. We investigated whether mean spring temperature changes were amplified or slowed down in the past decade and how plant phenology responded to the most recent temperature changes. Incorporating records with different end points (i.e., 2002 and 2012), we compared differences in trends and inferred possible differences caused by extrapolating phenological and meteorological data. The new multiple-change point approach is characterized by an enhanced structure and greater flexibility compared to the one change point model. However, the highest model probabilities for phenological (meteorological) records were still obtained for the one change point (linear) model. Marked warming trends in the recent decade were only revealed for mean temperatures of March to May, here better described with one or two change point models. In the majority of cases analyzed, changes in temperatures were well mirrored by phenological changes. However, temperatures in March to May were linked to less strongly advancing onset dates for lime tree flowering during the period 1901-2012, pointing to the likely influence of photoperiodic constraints or unfulfilled chilling requirements. Due to the slowdown of temperature increase, analyses conducted on records ending in 2002 demonstrated distinct differences when compared with records ending in 2012. Extrapolation of trends could therefore (along with the choice of the statistical method) lead to
Scalon, Marina Corrêa; Rossatto, Davi Rodrigo; Domingos, Fabricius Maia Chaves Bicalho; Franco, Augusto Cesar
Several mistletoe species are able to grow and reproduce on both deciduous and evergreen hosts, suggesting a degree of plasticity in their ability to cope with differences in intrinsic host functions. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of host phenology on mistletoe water relations and leaf gas exchange. Mistletoe Passovia ovata parasitizing evergreen (Miconia albicans) hosts and P. ovata parasitizing deciduous (Byrsonima verbascifolia) hosts were sampled in a Neotropical savanna. Photosynthetic parameters, diurnal cycles of stomatal conductance, pre-dawn and midday leaf water potential, and stomatal anatomical traits were measured during the peak of the dry and wet seasons, respectively. P. ovata showed distinct water-use strategies that were dependent on host phenology. For P. ovata parasitizing the deciduous host, water use efficiency (WUE; ratio of photosynthetic rate to transpirational water loss) was 2-fold lower in the dry season than in the wet season; in contrast, WUE was maintained at the same level during the wet and dry seasons in P. ovata parasitizing the evergreen host. Generally, mistletoe and host diurnal cycles of stomatal conductance were linked, although there were clear differences in leaf water potential, with mistletoe showing anisohydric behaviour and the host showing isohydric behaviour. Compared to mistletoes attached to evergreen hosts, those parasitizing deciduous hosts had a 1.4-fold lower stomatal density and 1.2-fold wider stomata on both leaf surfaces, suggesting that the latter suffered less intense drought stress. This is the first study to show morphophysiological differences in the same mistletoe species parasitizing hosts of different phenological groups. Our results provide evidence that phenotypical plasticity (anatomical and physiological) might be essential to favour the use of a greater range of hosts.
Full Text Available Changes in phenology, the timing of seasonal activities, are among the most frequently observed responses to environmental disturbances and in marine species are known to occur in response to climate changes that directly affects ocean temperature, biogeochemical composition and sea level. We examined nesting seasonality data from long-term studies at 8 green turtle (Chelonia mydas rookeries that include 21 specific nesting sites in the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO. We demonstrated that temperature drives patterns of nesting seasonality at the regional scale. We found a significant correlation between mean annual Sea Surface Temperature (SST and dates of peak nesting with rookeries exposed to higher SST having a delayed nesting peak. This supports the hypothesis that temperature is the main factor determining peak nesting dates. We also demonstrated a spatial synchrony in nesting activity amongst multiple rookeries in the northern part of the SWIO (Aldabra, Glorieuses, Mohéli, Mayotte but not with the eastern and southern rookeries (Europa, Tromelin, differences which could be attributed to females with sharply different adult foraging conditions. However, we did not detect a temporal trend in the nesting peak date over the study period or an inter-annual relation between nesting peak date and SST. The findings of our study provide a better understanding of the processes that drive marine species phenology. The findings will also help to predict their ability to cope with climate change and other environmental perturbations. Despite demonstrating this spatial shift in nesting phenology, no trend in the alteration of nesting dates over more than 20 years was found.
Sparrow, E. B.; Kopplin, M.; Gazal, R. M.; Robin, J. H.; Boger, R. A.
Phenology plays a key role in the environment and ecosystem. Primary and secondary students around the world have been collecting vegetation phenology data and contributing to ongoing scientific investigations. They have increased research capacity by increasing spatial coverage of ground observations that can be useful for validation of remotely sensed data. The green-up and green-down phenology measurement protocols developed at the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) as part of the Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) program, have been used in more than 250 schools in over 20 countries. In addition to contributing their data, students have conducted their own investigations and presented them at science fairs and symposiums, and international conferences. An elementary school student in Alaska conducted a comprehensive study on the green-down rates of native and introduced trees and shrubs. Her project earned her a one-year college scholarship at UAF. Students from the Model Secondary School for the Deaf in Washington, D. C. and from the Indiana School for the Deaf collaborated on a comparative green-up study, and were chosen to present at an international conference where students from more than 20 countries participated. Similarly, students in Thailand presented at national conferences, their studies such as "The Relationship between Environmental Conditions and Green-down of Teak Trees (Tectona grandis L.)" at Roong Aroon School, Bangkok and "The Comparison of Budburst and Green-up of Leab Trees (Ficus infectoria Roxb.) at Rob Wiang and Mae Khao Tom Sub-district in Chiang Rai Province". Some challenges in engaging students in phenological studies include the mismatch in timing of the start and end of the plant growing season with that of the school year in northern latitudes and the need for scientists and teachers to work with students to ensure accurate measurements. However these are outweighed by benefits to the scientists
Community patterns of tropical tree phenology derived from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle images: intra- and interspecific variation, association with species plant traits, and response to interannual climate variation
Bohlman, Stephanie; Rifai, Sami; Park, John; Dandois, Jonathan; Muller-Landau, Helene
Phenology is a key life history trait of plant species and critical driver of ecosystem processes. There is strong evidence that phenology is shifting in temperate ecosystems in response to climate change, but tropical forest phenology remains poorly quantified and understood. A key challenge is that tropical forests contain hundreds of plant species with a wide variety of phenological patterns, which makes it difficult to collect sufficient ground-based field data to characterize individual tropical tree species phenologies. Satellite-based observations, an important source of phenology data in northern latitudes, are hindered by frequent cloud cover in the tropics. To quantify phenology over a large number of individuals and species, we collected bi-weekly images from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the well-studied 50-ha forest inventory plot on Barro Colorado Island, Panama. The objective of this study is to quantify inter- and intra-specific responses of tropical tree leaf phenology to environmental variation over large spatial scales and identify key environmental variables and physiological mechanisms underpinning phenological variation. Between October 2014 and December 2015 and again in May 2015, we collected a total of 35 sets of UAV images, each with continuous coverage of the 50-ha plot, where every tree ≥ 1 cm DBH is mapped. UAV imagery was corrected for exposure, orthorectified, and then processed to extract spectral, texture, and image information for individual tree crowns, which was then used as inputs for a machine learning algorithm that successfully predicted the percentages of leaf, branch, and flower cover for each tree crown (r2=0.76 between observed and predicted percent branch cover for individual tree crowns). We then quantified cumulative annual deciduousness for each crown by fitting a non-parametric curve of flexible shape to its predicted percent branch time series and calculated the area under the curve. We obtained the species
Kalvāns, Andis; Bitāne, Māra; Kalvāne, Gunta
A historical phenological record and meteorological data of the period 1960-2009 are used to analyse the ability of seven phenological models to predict leaf unfolding and beginning of flowering for two tree species-silver birch Betula pendula and bird cherry Padus racemosa-in Latvia. Model stability is estimated performing multiple model fitting runs using half of the data for model training and the other half for evaluation. Correlation coefficient, mean absolute error and mean squared error are used to evaluate model performance. UniChill (a model using sigmoidal development rate and temperature relationship and taking into account the necessity for dormancy release) and DDcos (a simple degree-day model considering the diurnal temperature fluctuations) are found to be the best models for describing the considered spring phases. A strong collinearity between base temperature and required heat sum is found for several model fitting runs of the simple degree-day based models. Large variation of the model parameters between different model fitting runs in case of more complex models indicates similar collinearity and over-parameterization of these models. It is suggested that model performance can be improved by incorporating the resolved daily temperature fluctuations of the DDcos model into the framework of the more complex models (e.g. UniChill). The average base temperature, as found by DDcos model, for B. pendula leaf unfolding is 5.6 °C and for the start of the flowering 6.7 °C; for P. racemosa, the respective base temperatures are 3.2 °C and 3.4 °C.
Minoli, Sara; Egli, Dennis B.; Müller, Christoph
calendars, certainly because other factors play a role in the choice of cropping periods. Nonetheless, the model introduces a new way for simulating the decision making process in agricultural management for the crop variety choice. This is strongly needed for a realistic representation of global agricultural systems, and for their dynamic simulation under climate change. Finally it represents the first step toward an improved crop phenology, which would lead to enhanced crop modelling performances, but could also improve simulated land-surface dynamics in earth system and terrestrial ecosystem models.
Full Text Available In this study, we examined the phenology of the salt marsh ecosystem across coastal Louisiana (LA for a 16-year time period (2000–2015 using NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer’s (MODIS eight-day average surface reflectance images (500 m. We compared the performances of least squares fitted asymmetric Gaussian (AG and double logistic (DL smoothing functions in terms of increasing the signal-to-noise ratio from the raw phenology derived from the time-series composites. We performed derivative analysis to determine the appropriate start of season (SOS and end of season (EOS thresholds. After that, we extracted the seasonality parameters in TIMESAT, and studied the effect of environmental disturbances/anomalies on the seasonality parameters. Finally, we performed trend analysis using the derived seasonality parameters such as base green biomass (GBM value, maximum GBM value, seasonal amplitude, and small seasonal integral. Based on root mean square error (RMSE values and residual plots, we selected the best thresholds for SOS (5% of amplitude and EOS (20% of amplitude, along with the best smoothing function. The selected SOS and EOS thresholds were able to capture the environmental disturbances that have affected the salt marsh ecosystem during the 16-year time period. Our trend analysis results indicate positive trends in the base GBM values in the salt marshes of LA. However, we did not notice as much of a positive trend in the maximum GBM levels. Hence, we observed mostly negative changes in the GBM amplitude and small seasonal integral values. These negative changes indicated the overall progressive decline in the rates of photosynthesis and biomass allocation in the LA salt marsh ecosystem, which is most likely due to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and sea level rise. The results illustrate both the relative efficiency of MODIS-based biophysical models for analyzing salt marsh phenology, and performances of
Allstadt, Andrew J.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Radeloff, Volker C.
The onset of spring plant growth has shifted earlier in the year over the past several decades due to rising global temperatures. Earlier spring onset may cause phenological mismatches between the availability of plant resources and dependent animals, and potentially lead to more false springs, when subsequent freezing temperatures damage new plant growth. We used the extended spring indices to project changes in spring onset, defined by leaf out and by first bloom, and predicted false springs until 2100 in the conterminous United States (US) using statistically-downscaled climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 ensemble. Averaged over our study region, the median shift in spring onset was 23 days earlier in the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario with particularly large shifts in the Western US and the Great Plains. Spatial variation in phenology was due to the influence of short-term temperature changes around the time of spring onset versus season long accumulation of warm temperatures. False spring risk increased in the Great Plains and portions of the Midwest, but remained constant or decreased elsewhere. We conclude that global climate change may have complex and spatially variable effects on spring onset and false springs, making local predictions of change difficult.
Ziaco, Emanuele; Truettner, Charles; Biondi, Franco; Bullock, Sarah
Future seasonal dynamics of wood formation in hyperarid environments are still unclear. Although temperature-driven extension of the growing season and increased forest productivity are expected for boreal and temperate biomes under global warming, a similar trend remains questionable in water-limited regions. We monitored cambial activity in a montane stand of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) from the Mojave Desert for 2 consecutive years (2015-2016) showing opposite-sign anomalies between warm- and cold-season precipitation. After the wet winter/spring of 2016, xylogenesis started 2 months earlier compared to 2015, characterized by abundant monsoonal (July-August) rainfall and hyperarid spring. Tree size did not influence the onset and ending of wood formation, highlighting a predominant climatic control over xylem phenological processes. Moisture conditions in the previous month, in particular soil water content and dew point, were the main drivers of cambial phenology. Latewood formation started roughly at the same time in both years; however, monsoonal precipitation triggered the formation of more false rings and density fluctuations in 2015. Because of uncertainties in future precipitation patterns simulated by global change models for the Southwestern United States, the dependency of P. ponderosa on seasonal moisture implies a greater conservation challenge than for species that respond mostly to temperature conditions. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Denny, Ellen G.; Gerst, Katharine L.; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.; Tierney, Geraldine L.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Enquist, Carolyn A.F.; Guertin, Patricia; Rosemartin, Alyssa H.; Schwartz, Mark D.; Thomas, Kathryn A.; Weltzin, Jake F.
Phenology offers critical insights into the responses of species to climate change; shifts in species’ phenologies can result in disruptions to the ecosystem processes and services upon which human livelihood depends. To better detect such shifts, scientists need long-term phenological records covering many taxa and across a broad geographic distribution. To date, phenological observation efforts across the USA have been geographically limited and have used different methods, making comparisons across sites and species difficult. To facilitate coordinated cross-site, cross-species, and geographically extensive phenological monitoring across the nation, the USA National Phenology Network has developed in situ monitoring protocols standardized across taxonomic groups and ecosystem types for terrestrial, freshwater, and marine plant and animal taxa. The protocols include elements that allow enhanced detection and description of phenological responses, including assessment of phenological “status”, or the ability to track presence–absence of a particular phenophase, as well as standards for documenting the degree to which phenological activity is expressed in terms of intensity or abundance. Data collected by this method can be integrated with historical phenology data sets, enabling the development of databases for spatial and temporal assessment of changes in status and trends of disparate organisms. To build a common, spatially, and temporally extensive multi-taxa phenological data set available for a variety of research and science applications, we encourage scientists, resources managers, and others conducting ecological monitoring or research to consider utilization of these standardized protocols for tracking the seasonal activity of plants and animals.
Park, Isaac W.; Schwartz, Mark D.
In recent years, a growing body of evidence has emerged indicating that the relationship between flowering phenology and climate may differ throughout various portions of the growing season. These differences have resulted in long-term changes in flowering synchrony that may alter the quantity and diversity of pollinator attention to many species, as well as altering food availability to pollenivorous and nectarivorous animal species. However, long-term multi-season records of past flowering timing have primarily focused on temperate environments. In contrast, changes in flowering phenology within humid subtropical environments such as the southeastern USA remain poorly documented. This research uses herbarium-based methods to examine changes in flowering time across 19,328 samples of spring-, summer-, and autumn-flowering plants in the southeastern USA from the years 1951 to 2009. In this study, species that flower near the onset of the growing season were found to advance under increasing mean March temperatures (-3.391 days/°C, p = 0.022). No long-term advances in early spring flowering or spring temperature were detected during this period, corroborating previous phenological assessments for the southeastern USA. However, late spring through mid-summer flowering exhibited delays in response to higher February temperatures (over 0.1.85 days/°C, p ≤ 0.041 in all cases). Thus, it appears that flowering synchrony may undergo significant restructuring in response to warming spring temperatures, even in humid subtropical environments.
Betancourt, J. L.; Weltzin, J. F.
As part of an effort to develop an Indicator System for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), the Seasonality and Phenology Indicators Technical Team (SPITT) proposed an integrated, continental-scale framework for understanding and tracking seasonal timing in physical and biological systems. The framework shares several metrics with the EPA's National Climate Change Indicators. The SPITT framework includes a comprehensive suite of national indicators to track conditions, anticipate vulnerabilities, and facilitate intervention or adaptation to the extent possible. Observed, modeled, and forecasted seasonal timing metrics can inform a wide spectrum of decisions on federal, state, and private lands in the U.S., and will be pivotal for international efforts to mitigation and adaptation. Humans use calendars both to understand the natural world and to plan their lives. Although the seasons are familiar concepts, we lack a comprehensive understanding of how variability arises in the timing of seasonal transitions in the atmosphere, and how variability and change translate and propagate through hydrological, ecological and human systems. For example, the contributions of greenhouse warming and natural variability to secular trends in seasonal timing are difficult to disentangle, including earlier spring transitions from winter (strong westerlies) to summer (weak easterlies) patterns of atmospheric circulation; shifts in annual phasing of daily temperature means and extremes; advanced timing of snow and ice melt and soil thaw at higher latitudes and elevations; and earlier start and longer duration of the growing and fire seasons. The SPITT framework aims to relate spatiotemporal variability in surface climate to (1) large-scale modes of natural climate variability and greenhouse gas-driven climatic change, and (2) spatiotemporal variability in hydrological, ecological and human responses and impacts. The hierarchical framework relies on ground and satellite observations
This study was carried out to determine pomological and phenological characteristics of eleven promising rose hip (Rosa) genotypes chosen from wild populations in Tokat region of northern Anatolia, Turkey. Plants were propagated by cuttings and planted in 2000 at the research station of the Horticultural Department of ...
Andrew, Carrie; Heegaard, Einar; Høiland, Klaus; Senn-Irlet, Beatrice; Kuyper, Thomas W; Krisai-Greilhuber, Irmgard; Kirk, Paul M; Heilmann-Clausen, Jacob; Gange, Alan C; Egli, Simon; Bässler, Claus; Büntgen, Ulf; Boddy, Lynne; Kauserud, Håvard
Here we assess the impact of geographically dependent (latitude, longitude and altitude) changes in bioclimatic (temperature, precipitation and primary productivity) variability on fungal fruiting phenology across Europe. Two main nutritional guilds of fungi, saprotrophic and ectomycorrhizal, were further separated into spring and autumn fruiters. We used a path-analysis to investigate how biogeographic patterns in fungal fruiting phenology coincided with seasonal changes in climate and primary production. Across central to northern Europe, mean fruiting varied by approximately 25 days, primarily with latitude. Altitude affected fruiting by up to 30 days, with spring delays and autumnal accelerations. Fruiting was as much explained by the effects of bioclimatic variability as by their large-scale spatial patterns. Temperature drove fruiting of autumnal ectomycorrhizal and saprotrophic, as well as spring saprotrophic groups, while primary production and precipitation were major drivers for spring-fruiting ectomycorrhizal fungi. Species-specific phenology predictors were not stable, instead deviating from the overall mean. There is significant likelihood that further climatic change, especially in temperature, will impact fungal phenology patterns at large spatial scales. The ecological implications are diverse, potentially affecting food webs (asynchrony), nutrient cycling and the timing of nutrient availability in ecosystems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Koster, R. D.; Walker, G. K.
The time scales that characterize the variations of vegetation phenology are generally much longer than those that characterize atmospheric processes. The explicit modeling of phenological processes in an atmospheric forecast system thus has the potential to provide skill to subseasonal or seasonal forecasts. We examine this possibility here using a forecast system fitted with a dynamic vegetation phenology model. We perform three experiments, each consisting of 128 independent warm-season monthly forecasts: 1) an experiment in which both soil moisture states and carbon states (e.g., those determining leaf area index) are initialized realistically, 2) an experiment in which the carbon states are prescribed to climatology throughout the forecasts, and 3) an experiment in which both the carbon and soil moisture states are prescribed to climatology throughout the forecasts. Evaluating the monthly forecasts of air temperature in each ensemble against observations, as well as quantifying the inherent predictability of temperature within each ensemble, shows that dynamic phenology can indeed contribute positively to subseasonal forecasts, though only to a small extent, with an impact dwarfed by that of soil moisture.
In central Burkina Faso, Piliostigma reticulatum is a more and more adopted agroforestry species by farmers but is increasingly over exploited because of the use of its pods as forage. Therefore, understanding its phenology and fructification becomes urgent for a better management of existing parks. The flowering and ...
The breeding and moult phenology of African penguins Spheniscus demersus at Dassen Island form part of a variable annual cycle. Between 1994 and 2006, African penguins bred throughout the year. Most of this period was characterised by favourable feeding conditions. There were definite peaks in breeding activity, but ...
Little work has been done on the phenology of fish larvae in Great Lakes coastal wetlands. As part of an aquatic invasive species early detection study, we conducted larval fish surveys in the St. Louis River estuary (SLRE) in 2012 and 2013. Using multiple gears in a spatially ba...
The breeding phenology and moult cycle of the vulnerable and range-restricted Bannerman's Weaver Ploceus bannermani was studied on the Obudu Plateau in the eastern region of Nigeria. The peak breeding season was between August and October; a major cause of breeding failure was egg predation by children.
Dassen and Robben islands are approximately 50 km apart, and currently support the largest and third largest populations of African penguins Spheniscus demersus respectively. At both islands, moult is the most synchronised and seasonal activity of the annual cycle. The main difference in moult phenology between the ...
The P and K leaf concentrations at 3 MAP were positively correlated with the N and P pulp concentrations. The study showed that the pre-flowering traits, especially the number of green leaves could determine the yield, postharvest qualities and nutrient content of the pulp. Keywords: Plantain, pre-flowering traits, phenology, ...
Kozlov, Mikhail V.; Eraenen, Janne K.; Zverev, Vitali E.
Effects of environmental contamination on plant seasonal development have only rarely been properly documented. Monitoring of leaf growth in mountain birch, Betula pubescens subsp. czerepanovii, around a nickel-copper smelter at Monchegorsk hinted advanced budburst phenology in most polluted sites. However, under laboratory conditions budburst of birch twigs cut in late winter from trees naturally growing around three point polluters (nickel-copper smelter at Monchegorsk, aluminium factory at Kandalaksha, and iron pellet plant at Kostomuksha) showed no relationship with distance from the emission source. In a greenhouse experiment, budburst phenology of mountain birch seedlings grown in unpolluted soil did not depend on seedling origin (from heavily polluted vs. clean sites), whereas seedlings in metal-contaminated soil demonstrated delayed budburst. These results allow to attribute advanced budburst phenology of white birch in severely polluted sites to modified microclimate, rather than to pollution impact on plant physiology or genetics. - Advanced budburst phenology in white birch in severely polluted sites is explained by modified microclimate, not by pollution impact on plant physiology
Chevillot, Xavier; Drouineau, Hilaire; Lambert, Patrick; Carassou, Laure; Sautour, Benoit; Lobry, Jérémy
Alterations of species phenology in response to climate change are now unquestionable. Until now, most studies have reported precocious occurrence of life cycle events as a major phenological response. Desynchronizations of biotic interactions, in particular predator-prey relationships, are however assumed to strongly impact ecosystems’ functioning, as formalized by the Match-Mismatch Hypothesis (MMH). Temporal synchronicity between juvenile fish and zooplankton in estuaries is therefore of essential interest since estuaries are major nursery grounds for many commercial fish species. The Gironde estuary (SW France) has suffered significant alterations over the last three decades, including two Abrupt Ecosystem Shifts (AES), and three contrasted intershift periods. The main objective of this study was to depict modifications in fish and zooplankton phenology among inter-shift periods and discuss the potential effects of the resulting mismatches at a community scale. A flexible Bayesian method was used to estimate and compare yearly patterns of species abundance in the estuary among the three pre-defined periods. Results highlighted (1) an earlier peak of zooplankton production and entrance of fish species in the estuary and (2) a decrease in residence time of both groups in the estuary. Such species-specific phenological changes led to changes in temporal overlap between juvenile fish and their zooplanktonic prey. This situation questions the efficiency and potentially the viability of nursery function of the Gironde estuary, with potential implications for coastal marine fisheries of the Bay of Biscay. PMID:28355281
In order to investigate impact of complementary irrigation on phenological stages, chlorophyll content, radiation absorption and extinction coefficient, as well as some aspects concerning the yield of spring safflower, a split-plot experiment based on randomized complete block design with three replication was conducted at ...
Climate is changing around the world and will impact future production of all food and feed crops. Corn is no exception to these impacts and to ensure a future supply of this vital crop we must begin to understand how climate impacts both the phenological development of corn and the productivity. Te...
The phenology and dispersal of the larger grain borer (LGB) in Africa is described, and comparisons are made between prediction of LGB numbers from laboratory studies and predictions from multiple linear models derived from trapping data in the field. The models were developed in Mexico and Kenya, using ...
Cultivated cocoa species (Theobroma cacao L.) is originated from tropical rainforests of South and Central. America. Its fermented and dried seeds constitute the raw material for the chocolate manufacture. In order to analyse the variability of the in vitro and phenological behaviours of 6 cocoa hybrids, the typological and.
five regions in Tunisia was characterized on the basis of 16 morpho-phenological characters. Results from analysis of variance ... sativa (alfalfa, lucerne) and the legume model species Medicago truncatula. In Tunisia, the ... valuable tool for inferring the evolutionary forces such as selective pressures and drift (De Kort et al., ...
Wessels, Konrad J
Full Text Available This study used remotely-sensed phenology data derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), in a fully supervised decision-tree classification based on the new biome map of South Africa. The objectives were: (i) to investigate...
Cultivated cocoa species (Theobroma cacao L.) is originated from tropical rainforests of South and Central America. Its fermented and dried seeds constitute the raw material for the chocolate manufacture. In order to analyse the variability of the in vitro and phenological behaviours of 6 cocoa hybrids, the typological and ...
Between May and June 2011, the growth performance and phenological characteristics of local barred chicken of the Western Highland Cameroon was carried out in the Teaching and Research Farm of the University of Dschang. The data on body weight, body measurements and carcass characteristics were collected on ...
Leidy Paola Moreno
Full Text Available The phenological stages of oil palm can be coded using the BBCH scale, which has three digits due to the inclusion of intermediate stages between the principal and secondary stages in order to provide greater detail on each developmental stage. For the phenological description of the reproductive development of Elaeis oleifera, the principal stages used were emergence of inflorescence, flowering, fruit growth and development, and fruit ripening. The observations were made in Colombia over a 12 month-period on E. oleifera palms planted in 1991; the observations were made on the daily course or depending on the development stage. The duration of each phenological stage was measured in days. Thus, the appearance of new leaves took 20.1±2.8 days, reaching preanthesis I (601 took 145.09±19.61 days, from this stage to preanthesis II (602 took 7.50±1.50 days, then to preanthesis III (603 took 7.39±1.56 days and finally to anthesis (607 took 5.74±1.32 days. At the population level, it was found that the phenology cycle of inflorescence is annual and that the production of flowers and the opening of inflorescences with pistils is asynchronous.
The differences in timing in bud burst between species have been interpreted as an adaptation to late frost events in spring. Thus, it has been suggested that the degree of frost susceptibility of leaves is species-specific and depends on the species' phenology and geographic distribution range. To test for relationships ...
Rosemartin, A.; Vazquez, R.; Wilson, B. E.; Denny, E. G.
The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) serves science and society by promoting a broad understanding of plant and animal phenology and the relationships among phenological patterns and all aspects of environmental change. Data management and information sharing are central to the USA-NPN mission. The USA-NPN develops, implements, and maintains a comprehensive Information Management System (IMS) to serve the needs of the network, including the collection, storage and dissemination of phenology data, access to phenology-related information, tools for data interpretation, and communication among partners of the USA-NPN. The IMS includes components for data storage, such as the National Phenology Database (NPD), and several online user interfaces to accommodate data entry, data download, data visualization and catalog searches for phenology-related information. The IMS is governed by a set of standards to ensure security, privacy, data access, and data quality. The National Phenology Database is designed to efficiently accommodate large quantities of phenology data, to be flexible to the changing needs of the network, and to provide for quality control. The database stores phenology data from multiple sources (e.g., partner organizations, researchers and citizen observers), and provides for integration with legacy datasets. Several services will be created to provide access to the data, including reports, visualization interfaces, and web services. These services will provide integrated access to phenology and related information for scientists, decision-makers and general audiences. Phenological assessments at any scale will rely on secure and flexible information management systems for the organization and analysis of phenology data. The USA-NPN’s IMS can serve phenology assessments directly, through data management and indirectly as a model for large-scale integrated data management.
Broich, M.; Huete, A. R.; Xuanlon, M.; Davies, K.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Ratana, P.
Australia's climate is extremely variable with inter-annual rainfall at any given site varying by 5- or 6-fold or more, across the continent. In addition to such inter-annual variability, there can be significant intra-annual variability, especially in monsoonal Australia (e.g. the wet tropical savannas) and Mediterranean climates in SW Australia where prolonged dry seasons occur each year. This presents unique challenges to the characterization of seasonal dynamics with satellite datasets. In contrast to annual reoccurring temperature-driven phenology of northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, vegetation dynamics of the vast and dry Australian interior are poorly quantified by existing remote sensing products. For example, in the current global-based MODIS phenology product, central Australia is covered by ~30% fill values for any given year. Two challenges are specific to Australian landscapes: first, the difficulty of characterizing seasonality of rainfall-driven ecosystems in interior Australia where duration and magnitude of green-up and brown down cycles show high inter annual variability; second, modeling two phenologic layers, the trees and the grass in savannas were the trees are evergreen but the herbaceous understory varies with rainfall. Savannas cover >50% of Australia. Australia's vegetation and climate are different from other continents. A MODIS phenology product capable of characterizing vegetation dynamics across the continent is being developed in this research as part of the AusCover national expert network aiming to provide Australian biophysical remote sensing data time-series and continental-scale map products. These products aim to support the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN) serving ecosystem research in Australia. The MODIS land surface product for Australia first searches the entire time series of each Climate Modeling Grid pixel for low-high-low extreme point sequences. A double logistic function is then fit to each of these
Borchert, Daniel M; Stinner, Ronald E; Walgenbach, James F; Kennedy, George G
The phenology of oriental fruit moth, Grapholita molesta (Busck), on apple (Malus spp.) in North Carolina was studied using pheromone traps and egg sampling in abandoned and commercial orchards in 2000 and 2001, with subsequent development of an oviposition degree-day model and management studies in relation to codling moth, Cydia pomonella (L.), phenology. Oriental fruit moth eggs were found in greater numbers on leaves early and on fruit later in the growing season, on the top versus the bottom of the leaf surface, and on the calyx area versus the side or stem end of the fruit. A degree-day (DD) model to predict oriental fruit moth oviposition was developed based on temperature accumulations from peak moth trap capture of the first (overwintering) generation, by using 7.2 and 32.2 degrees C as the temperature limits. The model predicted four ovipositing generations of oriental fruit moth with the second beginning 507 DD after peak moth catch. Using predictions of the oriental fruit moth and codling moth degree-day oviposition models, an experiment was conducted to determine the level of second generation oriental fruit moth control with methoxyfenozide applied under different scenarios for first generation codling moth. Methoxyfenozide was equally effective in managing codling moth and oriental fruit moth for all treatment timings.
Full Text Available Plant phenology is changing because of recent global warming, and this change may precipitate changes in animal distribution (e.g., pests, alter the synchronization between species, and have feedback effects on the climate system through the alteration of biogeochemical and physical processes of vegetated land surface. Here, ground observations (leaf unfolding/first leaf separation of six deciduous tree species and satellite-derived start-of-growing season (SOS are used to assess how the timing of leafing/SOS in Western European deciduous forest responded to climate variability between 2001 and 2011 and evaluate the reliability of satellite SOS estimates in tracking the response of forest leafing to climate variability in this area. Satellite SOS estimates are derived from the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI time series of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS. Temporal trends in the SOS are quantified using linear regression, expressing SOS as a function of time. We demonstrated that the growing season was starting earlier between 2001 and 2011 for the majority of temperate deciduous forests in Western Europe, possibly influenced by regional spring warming effects experienced during the same period. A significant shift of up to 3 weeks to early leafing was found in both ground observations and satellite SOS estimates. We also show that the magnitude and trajectory of shifts in satellite SOS estimates are well comparable to that of in situ observations, hence highlighting the importance of satellite imagery in monitoring leaf phenology under a changing climate.
Weltzin, J. F.; Losleben, M.; Benton, L. M.
Background The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) is an emerging and exciting partnership between federal agencies, the academic community, and the general public to monitor and understand the influence of seasonal cycles and phenology on the Nation's resources. Phenology is the study of the timing of recurring biological phases, the causes of their timing with regard to biotic and abiotic forces, and the interrelation among phases of same or different species. Phenological data and models developed as part of the network can be applied to scientific research, education and outreach, as well as to stakeholders interested in agriculture, tourism and recreation, human health, and natural resource conservation and management. The goal of the USA-NPN (www.usanpn.org) is to establish a nationwide science and monitoring program to better understand how plants, animals and landscapes respond to climatic variation, and to facilitate human adaptation to ongoing and potential future climate change. Results The NPN has a number of programs through which learners of all ages can observe and interpret their environment using phenology as a platform to facilitate understanding through active learning, engagement, and inquiry-based approaches. For example, since February 2008, the NPN-affiliated network Project BudBurst has registered almost 3000 people who are observing nearly 4000 plants across the continental US and are reporting their observations on-line. In addition, we are developing educational programs, modules, and activities applicable to all stages in the educational process from 'K to gray,' and are partnering with local, state, and federal governmental and non- governmental organizations on education/outreach programming. Dissemination of educational materials and information will be facilitated by the creation of an on-line clearing-house for phenology education and outreach. In sum, the NPN is developing a number of programs and products that will capitalize
Testa, S.; Soudani, K.; Boschetti, L.; Borgogno Mondino, E.
Monitoring forest phenology allows us to study the effects of climate change on vegetated land surfaces. Daily and composite time series (TS) of several vegetation indices (VIs) from MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data have been widely used in scientific works for phenological studies since the beginning of the MODIS mission. The objective of this work was to use MODIS data to find the best VI/TS combination to estimate start-of-season (SOS) and end-of-season (EOS) dates across 50 temperate deciduous forests. Our research used as inputs 2001-2012 daily reflectance from MOD09GQ/MOD09GA products and 16-day composite VIs from the MOD13Q1 dataset. The 50 pixels centered on the 50 forest plots were extracted from the above-mentioned MODIS imagery; we then generated 5 different types of TS (1 daily from MOD09 and 4 composite from MOD13Q1) and used all of them to implement 6 VIs, obtaining 30 VI/TS combinations. SOS and EOS estimates were determined for each pixel/year and each VI/TS combination. SOS/EOS estimations were then validated against ground phenological observations. Results showed that, in our test areas, composite TS, if actual acquisition date is considered, performed mostly better than daily TS. EVI, WDRVI0.20 and NDVI were more suitable to SOS estimation, while WDRVI0.05 and EVI were more convenient in estimating early and advanced EOS, respectively.
Oteros, J.; García-Mozo, H.; Hervás-Martínez, C.; Galán, C.
It is now widely accepted that weather conditions occurring several months prior to the onset of flowering have a major influence on various aspects of olive reproductive phenology, including flowering intensity. Given the variable characteristics of the Mediterranean climate, we analyse its influence on the registered variations in olive flowering intensity in southern Spain, and relate them to previous climatic parameters using a year-clustering approach, as a first step towards an olive flowering phenology model adapted to different year categories. Phenological data from Cordoba province (Southern Spain) for a 30-year period (1982-2011) were analysed. Meteorological and phenological data were first subjected to both hierarchical and "K-means" clustering analysis, which yielded four year-categories. For this classification purpose, three different models were tested: (1) discriminant analysis; (2) decision-tree analysis; and (3) neural network analysis. Comparison of the results showed that the neural-networks model was the most effective, classifying four different year categories with clearly distinct weather features. Flowering-intensity models were constructed for each year category using the partial least squares regression method. These category-specific models proved to be more effective than general models. They are better suited to the variability of the Mediterranean climate, due to the different response of plants to the same environmental stimuli depending on the previous weather conditions in any given year. The present detailed analysis of the influence of weather patterns of different years on olive phenology will help us to understand the short-term effects of climate change on olive crop in the Mediterranean area that is highly affected by it.
Cole, Ella F; Long, Peter R; Zelazowski, Przemyslaw; Szulkin, Marta; Sheldon, Ben C
Population-level studies of how tit species (Parus spp.) track the changing phenology of their caterpillar food source have provided a model system allowing inference into how populations can adjust to changing climates, but are often limited because they implicitly assume all individuals experience similar environments. Ecologists are increasingly using satellite-derived data to quantify aspects of animals' environments, but so far studies examining phenology have generally done so at large spatial scales. Considering the scale at which individuals experience their environment is likely to be key if we are to understand the ecological and evolutionary processes acting on reproductive phenology within populations. Here, we use time series of satellite images, with a resolution of 240 m, to quantify spatial variation in vegetation green-up for a 385-ha mixed-deciduous woodland. Using data spanning 13 years, we demonstrate that annual population-level measures of the timing of peak abundance of winter moth larvae (Operophtera brumata) and the timing of egg laying in great tits (Parus major) and blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) is related to satellite-derived spring vegetation phenology. We go on to show that timing of local vegetation green-up significantly explained individual differences in tit reproductive phenology within the population, and that the degree of synchrony between bird and vegetation phenology showed marked spatial variation across the woodland. Areas of high oak tree (Quercus robur) and hazel (Corylus avellana) density showed the strongest match between remote-sensed vegetation phenology and reproductive phenology in both species. Marked within-population variation in the extent to which phenology of different trophic levels match suggests that more attention should be given to small-scale processes when exploring the causes and consequences of phenological matching. We discuss how use of remotely sensed data to study within-population variation
Lany, N.; Ayres, M. P.; Stange, E.; Sillett, S.; Rodenhouse, N.; Holmes, R. T.
leafout. Presumably, the birds rely quite heavily on photoperiod cues for the timing of their long distance movements from the Greater Antilles. However, the warblers displayed markedly higher phenotypic plasticity in the timing of their nesting; the change in median nest initiation date per change in date of leafout is 0.59 ± 0.13 d. Most of the plasticity in nesting phenology arose from behavioral adjustments of the interval between arrival and nesting depending on year-specific patterns in forest phenology. The community of insects on which the birds feed is the ecological link between the birds and the trees. The nature of physiological controls on insect phenology remains the least understood feature of this system, but many of the herbivorous insects (chiefly caterpillars) are more responsive than the birds to climatic variation. However, there is high diversity of species, and probably a diversity of physiological controls on the timing of larval feeding.
Sergy, G.; Owens, E.
In February 1970, the tanker Arrow became grounded 6.5 km off the north shore of Chedabucto Bay, Nova Scotia, and nearly 72,000 bbl of Bunker C fuel oil were released from the vessel during its subsequent breakup and sinking. The oil was washed ashore in various degrees over an estimated 305 km of the bay's 604-km shoreline, of which only 48 km were cleaned. In addition, the tanker Kurdistan broke in two in pack ice in March 1979 in the Cabot Strait area, spilling ca 54,000 bbl of Bunker C, some of which was later found at 16 locations along the northeast and east shorelines of Chedabucto Bay. In summer 1992, a systematic ground survey of the bay's shorelines was conducted using Environment Canada Shoreline Cleanup Assessment Team (SCAT) procedures. Standard observations were made of oil distribution and width, thickness, and character of the oil residues in 419 coastal segments. Results from the survey are summarized. Oil was found to be present on 13.3 km of the shoreline, with heavy oiling restricted to 1.3 km primarily in the areas of Black Duck Cove and Lennox Passage. Some of this residual oil was identified as coming from the Arrow. Natural weathering processes account for removal of most of the spilled oil from the bay. Oil remaining on the shore was found in areas outside of the zone of physical wave action, in areas of nearshore mixing where fine sediments are not present to weather the oil through biophysical processes, or in crusts formed by oil weathered on the surface. The systematic description of oiled shorelines using the SCAT methodology proved very successful, even for such an old spill. 6 refs
Gullett, Philippa; Hatchwell, Ben J; Robinson, Robert A; Evans, Karl L
Climate change-induced shifts in phenology have important demographic consequences, and are frequently used to assess species' sensitivity to climate change. Therefore, developing accurate phenological predictions is an important step in modeling species' responses to climate change. The ability of such phenological models to predict effects at larger spatial and temporal scales has rarely been assessed. It is also not clear whether the most frequently used phenological index, namely the average date of a phenological event across a population, adequately captures phenological shifts in the distribution of events across the season. We use the long-tailed tit Aegithalos caudatus (Fig. 1) as a case study to explore these issues. We use an intensive 17-year local study to model mean breeding date and test the capacity of this local model to predict phenology at larger spatial and temporal scales. We assess whether local models of breeding initiation, termination, and renesting reveal phenological shifts and responses to climate not detected by a standard phenological index, that is, population average lay date. These models take predation timing/intensity into account. The locally-derived model performs well at predicting phenology at the national scale over several decades, at both high and low temperatures. In the local model, a trend toward warmer Aprils is associated with a significant advance in termination dates, probably in response to phenological shifts in food supply. This results in a 33% reduction in breeding season length over 17 years - a substantial loss of reproductive opportunity that is not detected by the index of population average lay date. We show that standard phenological indices can fail to detect patterns indicative of negative climatic effects, potentially biasing assessments of species' vulnerability to climate change. More positively, we demonstrate the potential of detailed local studies for developing broader-scale predictive models of
Moulin, S.; Garrigues, S.; Olioso, A.; Ruget, F.; Desfonds, V.; Bertrand, N.; Lecharpentier, P.; Ripoche, D.; Launay, M.; Brisson, N.
In the coming years, water resources and vegetation production of Mediterranean areas will be drastically affected by climate changes as well as intense and rapid changes in the land use. The impact of climate and land-use changes on water balance and vegetation production can be analysed and predicted through land surface models, provided that the uncertainties associated to these models and to the data used to run them are evaluated. Vegetation phenology is generally poorly taken into account in land surface models and may be a substantial source of uncertainties for global change scenario studies. In this paper, we discuss the improvement obtained in Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) modelling by taking into account the phenology using a crop growth model, focusing on the water budget, over a Mediterranean crop site. The STICS model (Brisson et al, 1998) is used to simulate crop processes (growth and development, taking into account water and nitrogen exchanges between the environment and the crop). STICS describes the vegetation phenology very accurately and was validated for many types of crop and various pedoclimatic conditions. The SVAT model being analyzed is the a-gs version (Calvet et al., 1998) of the ISBA model (Noilhan et al, 1989), which simulates the photosynthesis and calculates the plant biomass and the Leaf Area Index (LAI) using a simple growth model. In STICS, the phenology is driven by the sum of daily air temperatures, which is quite realistic, while in ISBA, the phenology is driven by the plant carbon assimilation. Measurements (vegetation characteristics, soil properties, agricultural practises, energy and water balance) performed in the lower Rhone valley experimental area (Avignon, France) are used as well as long series of climatic data (past records and future simulations). In a first step, by running STICS and ISBA for maize and wheat crops with long series of climatic data, including future scenarios of climate (CLIMATOR
Edson, Suni M; McMahon, Timothy P
Acquisition of DNA from skeletal remains can be a delicate process. With the advent of improved extraction buffers that provide complete demineralization of the osseous materials, extraction of total genomic DNA from nearly any skeletal element is possible. This chapter describes both traditional organic and more newly developed inorganic extraction methods for fresh and dried skeletal remains.
Mar 2, 2005 ... Malaria remains the most significant parasitic disease affecting man. Prompt and accurate diagnosis of malaria is the key to cost effective management (1). Since the identification of Plasmodium parasites in human blood in 1880, the diagnosis of malaria has remained a hot bed of scientific discussion.
de Moura, Yhasmin Mendes; Galvão, Lênio Soares; Hilker, Thomas; Wu, Jin; Saleska, Scott; do Amaral, Cibele Hummel; Nelson, Bruce Walker; Lopes, Aline Pontes; Wiedeman, Kenia K.; Prohaska, Neill; de Oliveira, Raimundo Cosme; Machado, Carolyne Bueno; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.
The association between spectral reflectance and canopy processes remains challenging for quantifying large-scale canopy phenological cycles in tropical forests. In this study, we used a tower-mounted hyperspectral camera in an eastern Amazon forest to assess how canopy spectral signals of three species are linked with phenological processes in the 2012 dry season. We explored different approaches to disentangle the spectral components of canopy phenology processes and analyze their variations over time using 17 images acquired by the camera. The methods included linear spectral mixture analysis (SMA); principal component analysis (PCA); continuum removal (CR); and first-order derivative analysis. In addition, three vegetation indices potentially sensitive to leaf flushing, leaf loss and leaf area index (LAI) were calculated: the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the entitled Green-Red Normalized Difference (GRND) index. We inspected also the consistency of the camera observations using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and available phenological data on new leaf production and LAI of young, mature and old leaves simulated by a leaf demography-ontogeny model. The results showed a diversity of phenological responses during the 2012 dry season with related changes in canopy structure and greenness values. Because of the differences in timing and intensity of leaf flushing and leaf shedding, Erisma uncinatum, Manilkara huberi and Chamaecrista xinguensis presented different green vegetation (GV) and non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV) SMA fractions; distinct PCA scores; changes in depth, width and area of the 681-nm chlorophyll absorption band; and variations over time in the EVI, GRND and NDVI. At the end of dry season, GV increased for Erisma uncinatum, while NPV increased for Chamaecrista xinguensis. For Manilkara huberi, the NPV first increased in the beginning of August and then decreased toward
Full Text Available Climate change is having a discernible effect on many biological and ecological processes. Among observed changes, modifications in bird phenology have been widely documented. However, most studies have interpreted phenological shifts as gradual biological adjustments in response to the alteration of the thermal regime. Here we analysed a long-term dataset (1980-2010 of short-distance migratory raptors in five European regions. We revealed that the responses of these birds to climate-induced changes in autumn temperatures are abrupt and synchronous at a continental scale. We found that when the temperatures increased, birds delayed their mean passage date of autumn migration. Such delay, in addition to an earlier spring migration, suggests that a significant warming may induce an extension of the breeding-area residence time of migratory raptors, which may eventually lead to residency.
Savannas are mixed tree-grass systems and as one of the world's largest biomes represent an important component of the Earth system affecting water and energy balances, carbon sequestration and biodiversity as well as supporting large human populations. Savanna vegetation structure and its distribution, however, may change because of major anthropogenic disturbances from climate change, wildfire, agriculture, and livestock production. The overstory and understory may have different water use strategies, different nutrient requirements and have different responses to fire and climate variation. The accurate measurement of the spatial distribution and structure of the overstory and understory are essential for understanding the savanna ecosystem. This project developed a workflow for separating the dynamics of the overstory and understory fractional cover in savannas at the continental scale (Australia, South America, and Africa). Previous studies have successfully separated the phenology of Australian savanna vegetation into persistent and seasonal greenness using time series decomposition, and into fractions of photosynthetic vegetation (PV), non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV) and bare soil (BS) using linear unmixing. This study combined these methods to separate the understory and overstory signal in both the green and senescent phenological stages using remotely sensed imagery from the MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) sensor. The methods and parameters were adjusted based on the vegetation variation. The workflow was first tested at the Australian site. Here the PV estimates for overstory and understory showed best performance, however NPV estimates exhibited spatial variation in validation relationships. At the South American site (Cerrado), an additional method based on frequency unmixing was developed to separate green vegetation components with similar phenology. When the decomposition and frequency methods were compared, the frequency
Jaffré, Mikaël; Beaugrand, Grégory; Goberville, Eric; Jiguet, Frédéric; Kjellén, Nils; Troost, Gerard; Dubois, Philippe J; Leprêtre, Alain; Luczak, Christophe
Climate change is having a discernible effect on many biological and ecological processes. Among observed changes, modifications in bird phenology have been widely documented. However, most studies have interpreted phenological shifts as gradual biological adjustments in response to the alteration of the thermal regime. Here we analysed a long-term dataset (1980-2010) of short-distance migratory raptors in five European regions. We revealed that the responses of these birds to climate-induced changes in autumn temperatures are abrupt and synchronous at a continental scale. We found that when the temperatures increased, birds delayed their mean passage date of autumn migration. Such delay, in addition to an earlier spring migration, suggests that a significant warming may induce an extension of the breeding-area residence time of migratory raptors, which may eventually lead to residency.
Tape, Ken D.; Gustine, David D.
Remote photography, using camera traps, can be an effective and noninvasive tool for capturing the migration phenology of terrestrial wildlife. We deployed 14 digital cameras along a 104-kilometer longitudinal transect to record the spring migrations of caribou (Rangifer tarandus) and ptarmigan (Lagopus spp.) in the Alaskan Arctic. The cameras recorded images at 15-minute intervals, producing approximately 40,000 images, including 6685 caribou observations and 5329 ptarmigan observations. The northward caribou migration was evident because the median caribou observation (i.e., herd median) occurred later with increasing latitude; average caribou migration speed also increased with latitude (r2 = .91). Except at the northernmost latitude, a northward ptarmigan migration was similarly evident (r2 = .93). Future applications of this method could be used to examine the conditions proximate to animal movement, such as habitat or snow cover, that may influence migration phenology.
Shakeel Ahmad; Qaiser Abbas; Ghulam Abbas; Zartash Fatima; Atique-ur-Rehman; Sahrish Naz; Haseeb Younis; Rana Jahanzeb Khan; Wajid Nasim; Muhammad Habib ur Rehman; Ashfaq Ahmad; Ghulam Rasul; Muhammad Azam Khan; Mirza Hasanuzzaman
Understanding the impact of the warming trend on phenological stages and phases of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) in central and lower Punjab, Pakistan, may assist in optimizing crop management practices to enhance production. This study determined the influence of the thermal trend on cotton phenology from 1980?2015 in 15 selected locations. The results demonstrated that observed phenological stages including sowing (S), emergence (E), anthesis (A) and physiological maturity (M) occurred ear...
Tan, Bin; Morisette, Jeff; Wolfe, Robert; Esaias, Wayne; Gao, Feng; Ederer, Greg; Nightingale, Joanne; Nickeson, Jamie E.; Ma, Pete; Pedely, Jeff
Smoothed and gap-filled VI provides a good base for estimating vegetation phenology metrics. The TIMESAT software was improved by incorporating the ancillary information from MODIS products. A simple assessment of the association between retrieved greenup dates and ground observations indicates satisfactory result from improved TIMESAT software. One application example shows that mapping Nectar Flow Phenology is tractable on a continental scale using hive weight and satellite vegetation data. The phenology data product is supporting more researches in ecology, climate change fields.
Marsh, L.; Crimmins, M.; Crimmins, T. M.; Gerst, K.; Rosemartin, A.; Switzer, J.; Weltzin, J. F.
The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; www.usanpn.org) is now producing and freely delivering daily maps and short-term forecasts of accumulated growing degree days and spring onset dates (based on the Extended Spring Indices) at fine spatial scale for the conterminous United States. These data products have utility for a wide range of natural resource planning and management applications, including scheduling invasive species and pest detection and control activities, determining planting dates, anticipating allergy outbreaks and planning agricultural harvest dates. Accumulated growing degree day (AGDD) maps were selected because accumulated temperature is a strong driver of phenological transitions in plants and animals, including leaf-out, flowering, fruit ripening and migration. The Extended Spring Indices (SI-x) are based on predictive climate models for lilac and honeysuckle leaf and bloom; they have been widely used to summarize changes in the timing of spring onset. The SI-x is used as a national indicator of climate change impacts by the US Global Change Research Program and the Environmental Protection Agency. The USA-NPN is a national-scale program that supports scientific advancement and decision-making by collecting, storing, and sharing phenology data and information. To best serve various audiences, the AGDD and SI-x gridded maps are available in various formats through a range of access tools, including the USA-NPN online visualization tool as well as industry standards compliant web services. We plan to expand the suite of gridded map products offered by the USA-NPN to include predictive maps of phenological transitions for additional plant and animal species at fine spatial and temporal resolution in the near future. USA-NPN invites you to use freely available daily and short-term forecast maps of accumulated growing degree days and spring onset dates at fine spatial scale for the conterminous United States.
Kevin T. Smith
As mud season gives way to spring in New England, the pace of plant development quickens. We see that from the visual cues of plant phenology, the sequence and timing of biological events. The big early season events are upon us as the maple sap has run, buds swell, bud dormancy breaks, and leaves and flowers emerge. This is a good time for arborists to dust off their...
DIEZ-RODRÍGUEZ, GABRIELA INÉS; SOSINSKI, ENIO EGON; HÜBNER, LUCAS KUHN; ANTUNES, LUIS EDUARDO CORRÊA; NAVA, DORI EDSON
ABSTRACT The blueberry (Vaccinium ashei Reade, Ericaceae) is a small fruit with great growth potential in Brazil. This research was developed in order to identify the insects found on associated to the different phenological stages of blueberry in order to implement the integrated pest management for this crop. Insect samples were collected from three orchards, in the region of Pelotas, RS, from January 2010 to June 2012. The data were analyzed based on the composition and abundance of the c...
Sparks, Tim H.; Mizera, Tadeusz; Wójtowicz, Wanda; Tryjanowski, Piotr
We examine the flowering phenology of the cultural iconic Spring Snowflake Leucojum vernum, a considerable tourist attraction, recorded from two sites in western Poland. Flowering dates at the two sites were closely correlated but about 6 days later at the more natural area. The end of flowering was associated with the start of canopy leafing. Early flowering was related to a longer flowering season which may benefit ecotourism under future climate warming.
Jan 19, 2009 ... 172 Afr. J. Biotechnol. Table 4. Summary of statistics for espistatic effects obtained with Bayesian model selection on fruit traits and growth phenological traits in the F2 population and F3 lines. Traita. Generation. Position. Heritabilityb. (%) aac ddd ade daf. 2lnBF. PL. F2. LG5[88.5, 163.4]×LG6[60.7, 78.6].
GABRIELA INÉS DIEZ-RODRÍGUEZ
Full Text Available ABSTRACT The blueberry (Vaccinium ashei Reade, Ericaceae is a small fruit with great growth potential in Brazil. This research was developed in order to identify the insects found on associated to the different phenological stages of blueberry in order to implement the integrated pest management for this crop. Insect samples were collected from three orchards, in the region of Pelotas, RS, from January 2010 to June 2012. The data were analyzed based on the composition and abundance of the collected insects. In all three sites, 2,354 insects were studied and the majority belonged to Hymenoptera (72%, Coleoptera (16%, Hemiptera (6% and Diptera (4%. Forty-one families were identified with 59% of the listed insects belonging to the Apidae family, followed by 11% for Chrysomelidae and Formicidae. Overall, 50 species of insects were identified and Trigona spinipes (Fabr. and Apis mellifera L. were the most abundant. Of the species found, 78% were herbivores, while 22% was beneficial insects (pollinators, predators and parasitoids belonging to the orders Hymenoptera, Coleoptera and Dermaptera. The analysis of variance with the randomization test showed that the insect fauna does not differ between locations and phenological stages. The interaction of site with phenological stages was not significant for the three grade levels (order, family and species. The knowledge of the entomofauna associated with blueberry, along with the similarity in composition with the phenological stages and evaluated sites, contributes to the development of integrated pest management and establishment of production system for this new culture in southern Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
Szabó, Barbara; Vincze, Enikő; Czúcz, Bálint
The importance of long-term plant phenological time series is growing in monitoring of climate change impacts worldwide. To detect trends and assess possible influences of climate in Hungary, we studied flowering phenological records for six species ( Convallaria majalis, Taraxacum officinale, Syringa vulgaris, Sambucus nigra, Robinia pseudoacacia, Tilia cordata) based on phenological observations from the Hungarian Meteorological Service recorded between 1952 and 2000. Altogether, four from the six examined plant species showed significant advancement in flowering onset with an average rate of 1.9-4.4 days per decade. We found that it was the mean temperature of the 2-3 months immediately preceding the mean flowering date, which most prominently influenced its timing. In addition, several species were affected by the late winter (January-March) values of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. We also detected sporadic long-term effects for all species, where climatic variables from earlier months exerted influence with varying sign and little recognizable pattern: the temperature/NAO of the previous autumn (August-December) seems to influence Convallaria, and the temperature/precipitation of the previous spring (February-April) has some effect on Tilia flowering.
Whipple, A V; Abrahamson, W G; Khamiss, M A; Heinrich, P L; Urian, A G; Northridge, E M
Host-race formation is promoted by genetic trade-offs in the ability of herbivores to use alternate hosts, including trade-offs due to differential timing of host-plant availability. We examined the role of phenology in limiting host-plant use in the goldenrod gall fly (Eurosta solidaginis) by determining: (1) whether phenology limits alternate host use, leading to a trade-off that could cause divergent selection on Eurosta emergence time and (2) whether Eurosta has the genetic capacity to respond to such selection in the face of existing environmental variation. Experiments demonstrated that oviposition and gall induction on the alternate host, Solidago canadensis, were the highest on young plants, whereas the highest levels of gall induction on the normal host, Solidago gigantea, occurred on intermediate-age plants. These findings indicate a phenological trade-off for host-plant use that sets up the possibility of divergent selection on emergence time. Heritability, estimated by parent-offspring regression, indicated that host-race formation is impeded by the amount of genetic variation, relative to environmental, for emergence time.
Wang, Tao; Ottlé, Catherine; Peng, Shushi; Janssens, Ivan A; Lin, Xin; Poulter, Benjamin; Yue, Chao; Ciais, Philippe
The impact of climate warming on the advancement of plant spring phenology has been heavily investigated over the last decade and there exists great variability among plants in their phenological sensitivity to temperature. However, few studies have explicitly linked phenological sensitivity to local climate variance. Here, we set out to test the hypothesis that the strength of phenological sensitivity declines with increased local spring temperature variance, by synthesizing results across ground observations. We assemble ground-based long-term (20-50 years) spring phenology database (PEP725 database) and the corresponding climate dataset. We find a prevalent decline in the strength of phenological sensitivity with increasing local spring temperature variance at the species level from ground observations. It suggests that plants might be less likely to track climatic warming at locations with larger local spring temperature variance. This might be related to the possibility that the frost risk could be higher in a larger local spring temperature variance and plants adapt to avoid this risk by relying more on other cues (e.g., high chill requirements, photoperiod) for spring phenology, thus suppressing phenological responses to spring warming. This study illuminates that local spring temperature variance is an understudied source in the study of phenological sensitivity and highlight the necessity of incorporating this factor to improve the predictability of plant responses to anthropogenic climate change in future studies. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Full Text Available Along with the global climate change, there is an increasing interest for its effect on phenological patterns such as start and end of the growing season. Scientific digital webcams are used for this purpose taking every day one or more images from the same natural motive showing for example trees or grassland sites. To derive phenological patterns from the webcam images, regions of interest are manually defined on these images by an expert and subsequently a time series of percentage greenness is derived and analyzed with respect to structural changes. While this standard approach leads to satisfying results and allows to determine dates of phenological change points, it is associated with a considerable amount of manual work and is therefore constrained to a limited number of webcams only. In particular, this forbids to apply the phenological analysis to a large network of publicly accessible webcams in order to capture spatial phenological variation. In order to be able to scale up the analysis to several hundreds or thousands of webcams, we propose and evaluate two automated alternatives for the definition of regions of interest, allowing for efficient analyses of webcam images. A semi-supervised approach selects pixels based on the correlation of the pixels' time series of percentage greenness with a few prototype pixels. An unsupervised approach clusters pixels based on scores of a singular value decomposition. We show for a scientific webcam that the resulting regions of interest are at least as informative as those chosen by an expert with the advantage that no manual action is required. Additionally, we show that the methods can even be applied to publicly available webcams accessed via the internet yielding interesting partitions of the analyzed images. Finally, we show that the methods are suitable for the intended big data applications by analyzing 13988 webcams from the AMOS database. All developed methods are implemented in the
W. Alice Boyle
Full Text Available Reproductive phenologies of plants are constrained by climate in highly seasonal regions. In contrast, plants growing in wet tropical forests are freed from many abiotic constraints, which in canopy tree communities lead to a rich diversity of phenological patterns within and among individuals, species and communities. However, basic descriptions of tropical phenological patterns and the processes that shape them are rare. Here, we document the individual-, population-, and landscape-level phenological patterns of two dominant families of understory woody plants important to avian frugivores, the Melastomataceae and Rubiaceae, along an elevational transect in Costa Rica. The 226 individual plants belonging to 35 species in this study, varied in the number of reproductive bouts/year, and the timing, duration, and synchrony of reproductive stages. This variation was not related to factors related to their interactions with mutualists and antagonists, nor did it appear to be constrained by phylogeny. Diverse phenological patterns among species led to relatively aseasonal patterns at the community and landscape level. Overall, evidence for biotic processes shaping temporal patterns of fruiting phenology was weak or absent. These findings reveal a number of unexplained patterns, and suggest that factors shaping phenology in relatively aseasonal forests operate in idiosyncratic ways at the species level.En regiones con marcada estacionalidad, los patrones fenológicos de las plantas están limitados por el clima. Por el contrario, las plantas que crecen en bosques húmedos tropicales, no tienen tantas limitaciones abióticas y es por esto que el dosel presenta una diversidad muy rica en los patrones fenológicos de individuos, especies y comunidades. Sin embargo, es muy escasa la información sobre la descripción básica de los patrones fenológicos tropicales y de los procesos que los afectan. En este documento, presentamos los patrones fenol
Andrew K G Jones
Full Text Available The significance of aquatic resources to past human groups is not adequately reflected in the published literature - a deficiency which is gradually being acknowledged by the archaeological community world-wide. The publication of the following three papers goes some way to redress this problem. Originally presented at an International Council of Archaeozoology (ICAZ Fish Remains Working Group meeting in York, U.K. in 1987, these papers offer clear evidence of the range of interest in ancient fish remains across the world. Further papers from the York meeting were published in Internet Archaeology 3 in 1997.
Stepanian, Phillip M; Wainwright, Charlotte E
Bats play an important role in agroecology and are effective bioindicators of environmental conditions, but little is known about their fundamental migration ecology, much less how these systems are responding to global change. Some of the world's largest bat populations occur during the summer in the south-central United States, when millions of pregnant females migrate from lower latitudes to give birth in communal maternity colonies. Despite a relatively large volume of research into these colonies, many fundamental questions regarding their abundance-including their intra- and interseasonal variability-remain unanswered, and even estimating the size of individual populations has been a long-running challenge. Overall, monitoring these bat populations at high temporal resolution (e.g., nightly) and across long time spans (e.g., decades) has been impossible. Here, we show 22 continuous years of nightly population counts at Bracken Cave, a large bat colony in south-central Texas, enabling the first climate-scale phenological analysis. Using quantitative radar monitoring, we found that spring migration and the summer reproductive cycle have advanced by approximately 2 weeks over the study period. Furthermore, we quantify the ongoing growth of a newly-established overwintering population that indicates a system-wide response to changing environmental conditions. Our observations reveal behavioral plasticity in bats' ability to adapt to changing resource availability, and provide the first long-term quantification of their response to a changing climate. As aerial insectivores, these changes in bat phenology and propensity for overwintering indicate probable shifts in prey availability, with clear implications for pest management across wider regional agrisystems. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Zhang, T.; Li, T.; Yang, X.; Simelton, E.
The current model inter-comparison studies highlight the difference in projections between crop models when they are applied to warmer climates, but these studies do not provide results on how the accuracy of the models would change in these projections because the adequate observations under largely diverse growing season temperature (GST) are often unavailable. Here, we investigate the potential changes in the accuracy of rice phenology models when these models were applied to a significantly warmer climate. We collected phenology data from 775 trials with 19 cultivars in 5 Asian countries (China, India, Philippines, Bangladesh and Thailand). Each cultivar encompasses the phenology observations under diverse GST regimes. For a given rice cultivar in different trials, the GST difference reaches 2.2 to 8.2°C, which allows us to calibrate the models under lower GST and validate under higher GST (i.e., warmer climates). Four common phenology models representing major algorithms on simulations of rice phenology, and three model calibration experiments were conducted. The results suggest that the bilinear and beta models resulted in gradually increasing phenology bias (Figure) and double yield bias per percent increase in phenology bias, whereas the growing-degree-day (GDD) and exponential models maintained a comparatively constant bias when applied in warmer climates (Figure). Moreover, the bias of phenology estimated by the bilinear and beta models did not reduce with increase in GST when all data were used to calibrate models. These suggest that variations in phenology bias are primarily attributed to intrinsic properties of the respective phenology model rather than on the calibration dataset. Therefore we conclude that using the GDD and exponential models has more chances of predicting rice phenology correctly and thus, production under warmer climates, and result in effective agricultural strategic adaptation to and mitigation of climate change.
Full Text Available Vegetation phenology models are important for examining the impact of climate change on the length of the growing season and carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. However, large uncertainties in present phenology models make accurate assessment of the beginning of the growing season (BGS a challenge. In this study, based on the satellite-based phenology product (i.e. the V005 MODIS Land Cover Dynamics (MCD12Q2 product, we calibrated four phenology models, compared their relative strength to predict vegetation phenology; and assessed the spatial pattern and interannual variability of BGS in the Northern Hemisphere. The results indicated that parameter calibration significantly influences the models' accuracy. All models showed good performance in cool regions but poor performance in warm regions. On average, they explained about 67% (the Growing Degree Day model, 79% (the Biome-BGC phenology model, 73% (the Number of Growing Days model and 68% (the Number of Chilling Days-Growing Degree Day model of the BGS variations over the Northern Hemisphere. There were substantial differences in BGS simulations among the four phenology models. Overall, the Biome-BGC phenology model performed best in predicting the BGS, and showed low biases in most boreal and cool regions. Compared with the other three models, the two-phase phenology model (NCD-GDD showed the lowest correlation and largest biases with the MODIS phenology product, although it could catch the interannual variations well for some vegetation types. Our study highlights the need for further improvements by integrating the effects of water availability, especially for plants growing in low latitudes, and the physiological adaptation of plants into phenology models.
Fu, Yang; Zhang, Haicheng; Dong, Wenjie; Yuan, Wenping
Vegetation phenology models are important for examining the impact of climate change on the length of the growing season and carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. However, large uncertainties in present phenology models make accurate assessment of the beginning of the growing season (BGS) a challenge. In this study, based on the satellite-based phenology product (i.e. the V005 MODIS Land Cover Dynamics (MCD12Q2) product), we calibrated four phenology models, compared their relative strength to predict vegetation phenology; and assessed the spatial pattern and interannual variability of BGS in the Northern Hemisphere. The results indicated that parameter calibration significantly influences the models' accuracy. All models showed good performance in cool regions but poor performance in warm regions. On average, they explained about 67% (the Growing Degree Day model), 79% (the Biome-BGC phenology model), 73% (the Number of Growing Days model) and 68% (the Number of Chilling Days-Growing Degree Day model) of the BGS variations over the Northern Hemisphere. There were substantial differences in BGS simulations among the four phenology models. Overall, the Biome-BGC phenology model performed best in predicting the BGS, and showed low biases in most boreal and cool regions. Compared with the other three models, the two-phase phenology model (NCD-GDD) showed the lowest correlation and largest biases with the MODIS phenology product, although it could catch the interannual variations well for some vegetation types. Our study highlights the need for further improvements by integrating the effects of water availability, especially for plants growing in low latitudes, and the physiological adaptation of plants into phenology models.
This is an important public health announcement about safety precautions for those handling human remains. Language: Haitian Creole. Created: 2/18/2010 by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Date Released: 2/18/2010.
According to a new federal report, the qualities of an effective mathematics teacher remain frustratingly elusive. The report of the National Mathematics Advisory Panel does not show what college math content and coursework are most essential for teachers. While the report offered numerous conclusions about math curriculum, cognition, and…
Wastesson, Jonas W; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune
OBJECTIVES: To investigate the remaining life expectancy with and without polypharmacy for Swedish women and men aged 65 years and older. DESIGN: Age-specific prevalence of polypharmacy from the nationwide Swedish Prescribed Drug Register (SPDR) combined with life tables from Statistics Sweden...
Hwang, Shu-Ling; Bedford, Olwen
Qualitative data from in-depth interviews were collected in 1990-1991, 1992, and 2000 with 49 prostituted juveniles remanded to two rehabilitation centers in Taiwan. These data are analyzed to explore Taiwanese prostituted juveniles' feelings about themselves and their work, their motivations for remaining in prostitution, and their difficulties…
van Walraven, Lodewijk; Dapper, Rob; Nauw, Janine J.; Tulp, Ingrid; Witte, Johannes IJ.; van der Veer, Henk W.
Long-term patterns in fish phenology in the western Dutch Wadden Sea were studied using a 53 year (1960-2013) high resolution time series of daily kom-fyke catches in spring and autumn. Trends in first appearance, last occurrence and peak abundance were analysed for the most common species in relation to mode of life (pelagic, demersal, benthopelagic) and biogeographic guild (northern or southern distribution). Climate change in the western Wadden Sea involved an increase in water temperature from 1980 onwards. The main pattern in first day of occurrence, peak occurrence and last day of occurrence was similar: a positive trend over time and a correlation with spring and summer water temperature. This is counterintuitive; with increasing temperature, an advanced immigration of fish species would be expected. An explanation might be that water temperatures have increased offshore as well and hence fish remain longer there, delaying their immigration to the Wadden Sea. The main trend towards later date of peak occurrence and last day of occurrence was in line with our expectations: a forward shift in immigration into the Wadden Sea implies also that peak abundance is delayed. As a consequence of the increased water temperature, autumn water temperature remains favourable longer than before. For most of the species present, the Wadden Sea is not near the edge of their distributional range. The most striking phenological shifts occurred in those individual species for which the Wadden Sea is near the southern or northern edge of their distribution.
Shuai, Yanmin; Xie, Donghui; Wang, Peijuan; Wu, Menxin
Land surface phenology is an efficient bio-indicator for monitoring terrestrial ecosystem variation in response to climate change. Numerous studies point out climate change plays an important role in modulating vegetation phenological events, especially in agriculture. In turn, surface changes caused by geo-biological processes can affect climate transition regionally and perhaps globally, as concluded by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001. Large amounts of research concluded that crops, as one of the most sensitive bio-indicators for climate change, can be strongly influenced by local weather such as temperature, moisture and radiation. Thus, investigating the details of weather impact and the feedback from crops can help improve our understanding of the interaction between crops and climate change at satellite scale. Our efforts start from this point, via case studies over the famous agriculture region in the Northeast China's plain to examine the response of spring maize under temperature and moisture stress. MODIS-based daily green vegetation information together with frequent field specification of the surface phenology as well as continuous measurements of the routine climatic factors during seven years (2003-2009) is used in this paper. Despite the obvious difference in scale between satellite estimations and field observations, the inter- and intra-annual variation of maize in seven-years' growth was captured successfully over three typical spring maize regions (Fuyu, Changling, and Hailun) in Northeast China. The results demonstrate that weather conditions such as changes of temperature and moisture stress provide considerable contribution to the year-to-year variations in the timing of spring maize phenological events
Shuai, Yanmin; Xie, Donghui; Wang, Peijuan; Wu, Menxin
Land surface phenology is an efficient bio-indicator for monitoring terrestrial ecosystem variation in response to climate change. Numerous studies point out climate change plays an important role in modulating vegetation phenological events, especially in agriculture. In turn, surface changes caused by geo-biological processes can affect climate transition regionally and perhaps globally, as concluded by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001. Large amounts of research concluded that crops, as one of the most sensitive bio-indicators for climate change, can be strongly influenced by local weather such as temperature, moisture and radiation. Thus, investigating the details of weather impact and the feedback from crops can help improve our understanding of the interaction between crops and climate change at satellite scale. Our efforts start from this point, via case studies over the famous agriculture region in the Northeast China's plain to examine the response of spring maize under temperature and moisture stress. MODIS-based daily green vegetation information together with frequent field specification of the surface phenology as well as continuous measurements of the routine climatic factors during seven years (2003-2009) is used in this paper. Despite the obvious difference in scale between satellite estimations and field observations, the inter- and intra-annual variation of maize in seven-years' growth was captured successfully over three typical spring maize regions (Fuyu, Changling, and Hailun) in Northeast China. The results demonstrate that weather conditions such as changes of temperature and moisture stress provide considerable contribution to the year-to-year variations in the timing of spring maize phenological events.
Pretty, Iain A
For many forensic dentists the identification of found human remains will comprise the majority of their case work. However, there is rarely a typical dental identification. The resilience of teeth and their supporting tissues to peri- and post-mortem assaults provides a wealth of information for those interested in the identity of the deceased. Chemical attack, burning, burial, submersion, and even severe head and neck trauma are all withstood by the dentition to an extent where identification is possible. The lack of a tentative identification or failure to locate dental or similar ante-mortem records is a more common reason for an odontological investigation to fail. The purpose of this review is to describe the techniques employed by forensic dentists to identify human remains and also to provide details of some of the novel developments within this area.
Morrell-Bellai, T; Goering, P N; Boydell, K M
This article reports the qualitative findings of a multimethod study of the homeless population in Toronto, Canada. The qualitative component sought to identify how people become homeless and why some individuals remain homeless for an extended period of time or cycle in and out of homelessness (the chronically homeless). In-depth, semistructured interviews were conducted with 29 homeless adults. The findings suggest that people both become and remain homeless due to a combination of macro level factors (poverty, lack of employment, low welfare wages, lack of affordable housing) and personal vulnerability (childhood abuse or neglect, mental health symptoms, impoverished support networks, substance abuse). Chronically homeless individuals often reported experiences of severe childhood trauma and tended to attribute their continued homelessness to a substance abuse problem. It is concluded that both macro and individual level factors must be considered in planning programs and services to address the issue of homelessness in Canada.
Pulsipher, A.; Daniel, W. IV; Kiesler, J.E.; Mackey, V. III
Economics and safety concerns indicate that methods involving explosives remain the most practical and cost-effective means for abandoning oil and gas structures in the Gulf of Mexico. A decade has passed since 51 dead sea turtles, many endangered Kemp's Ridleys, washed ashore on the Texas coast shortly after explosives helped remove several offshore platforms. Although no relationship between the explosions and the dead turtles was ever established, in response to widespread public concern, the US Minerals Management Service (MMS) and National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) implemented regulations limiting the size and timing of explosive charges. Also, more importantly, they required that operators pay for observers to survey waters surrounding platforms scheduled for removal for 48 hr before any detonations. If observers spot sea turtles or marine mammals within the danger zone, the platform abandonment is delayed until the turtles leave or are removed. However, concern about the effects of explosives on marine life remains
Li, Qiuyue; Xu, Lin; Pan, Xuebiao; Zhang, Lizhen; Li, Chao; Yang, Ning; Qi, Jiaguo
Plant phenology is an important indicator of ecosystem dynamics and services. However, little is understood of its responses to climate change, particularly in ecologically sensitive regions such as arid and semi-arid grasslands. In this study, we analyzed a long-term climate and plant phenology dataset of thirteen grassland species in the Inner Mongolia of China, collected during 1981-2011 time period, to understand temporal patterns of plant phenology and then developed a simple chilling-adjusted physiological model to simulate phenological responses of each plant species to climate change. The results of regional climate analysis suggested that the minimum temperature was increasing at a greater rate than mean and maximum temperatures in the region and the climate variability had significant impacts on vegetation phenology. Chilling from an early stage in spring in general slowed down the phenological development in most plant species, although there were some inconsistencies among sites and years. Specifically, we found lower precipitation during green-up resulted in delayed flowering, which may attribute to plant self-adjustment strategy to respond changes in climate. These climate dependent phenologies were characterized by a simple physiological model. Scenario analysis suggested that by 2071-2100 significant shifts in plant phenology are expected in Inner Mongolia, including as much as 6-11 days earlier in green-up time and 8-11 days shorter in growing season due to earlier senescence.
Wu, X.; Zurita-Milla, R.; Kraak, M.J.
The study of phenological patterns and their dynamics provides insights into the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. Here we present a novel analytical workflow, based on co-clustering, that enables the concurrent study of spatio-temporal patterns in spring phenology. The workflow
Shimar V. Joseph; Albert E. Mayfield; Mark J. Dalusky; Christopher Asaro; C. Wayne. Berisford
Understanding the seasonal phenology of an insect pest in a specific geographic region is essential for optimizing the timing of management actions or research activities. We examined the phenology of hemlock woolly adelgid, Adelges tsugae Annand, near the southern limit of the range of eastern hemlock, Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carriere, in the Appalachians of northern...
Zhai, De-Li; Yu, Haiying; Chen, Si-Chong; Ranjitkar, Sailesh; Xu, Jianchu
The phenology of rubber trees (Hevea brasiliensis) could be influenced by meteorological factors and exhibits significant changes under different geoclimates. In the sub-optimal environment in Xishuangbanna, rubber trees undergo lengthy periods of defoliation and refoliation. The timing of refoliation from budburst to leaf aging could be affected by powdery mildew disease (Oidium heveae), which negatively impacts seed and latex production. Rubber trees are most susceptible to powdery mildew disease at the copper and leaf changing stages. Understanding and predicting leaf phenology of rubber trees are helpful to develop effective means of controlling the disease. This research investigated the effect of several meteorological factors on different leaf phenological stages in a sub-optimal environment for rubber cultivation in Jinghong, Yunnan in Southwest China. Partial least square regression was used to quantify the relationship between meteorological factors and recorded rubber phenologies from 2003 to 2011. Minimum temperature in December was found to be the critical factor for the leaf phenology development of rubber trees. Comparing the delayed effects of minimum temperature, the maximum temperature, diurnal temperature range, and sunshine hours were found to advancing leaf phenologies. A comparatively lower minimum temperature in December would facilitate the advancing of leaf phenologies of rubber trees. Higher levels of precipitation in February delayed the light green and the entire process of leaf aging. Delayed leaf phenology was found to be related to severe rubber powdery mildew disease. These results were used to build predictive models that could be applied to early warning systems of rubber powdery mildew disease.
Trevor F. Keenan; Josh Gray; Mark A. Friedl; Michael Toomey; Gil Bohrer; David Y. Hollinger; J. William Munger; John O’Keefe; Hans Peter Schmid; Ian Sue Wing; Bai Yang; Andrew D. Richardson
The timing of phenological events exerts a strong control over ecosystem function and leads to multiple feedbacks to the climate system1. Phenology is inherently sensitive to temperature (although the exact sensitivity is disputed2) and recent warming is reported to have led to earlier spring, later autumn3,4...
Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Davies, T. Jonathan
Climate change has brought renewed interest in the study of plant phenology - the timing of life history events. Data on shifting phenologies with warming have accumulated rapidly, yet research has been comparatively slow to explain the diversity of phenological responses observed across latitudes, growing seasons and species. Here, we outline recent efforts to synthesize perspectives on plant phenology across the fields of ecology, climate science and evolution. We highlight three major axes that vary among these disciplines: relative focus on abiotic versus biotic drivers of phenology, on plastic versus genetic drivers of intraspecific variation, and on cross-species versus autecological approaches. Recent interdisciplinary efforts, building on data covering diverse species and climate space, have found a greater role of temperature in controlling phenology at higher latitudes and for early-flowering species in temperate systems. These efforts have also made progress in understanding the tremendous diversity of responses across species by incorporating evolutionary relatedness, and linking phenological flexibility to invasions and plant performance. Future research with a focus on data collection in areas outside the temperate mid-latitudes and across species' ranges, alongside better integration of how risk and investment shape plant phenology, offers promise for further progress.
Helm, Barbara; Ben-Shlomo, Rachel; Sheriff, Michael J; Hut, Roelof A; Foster, Russell; Barnes, Brian M; Dominoni, Davide
Seasonal recurrence of biological processes (phenology) and its relationship to environmental change is recognized as being of key scientific and public concern, but its current study largely overlooks the extent to which phenology is based on biological time-keeping mechanisms. We highlight the
Zhai, De-Li; Yu, Haiying; Chen, Si-Chong; Ranjitkar, Sailesh; Xu, Jianchu
The phenology of rubber trees (Hevea brasiliensis) could be influenced by meteorological factors and exhibits significant changes under different geoclimates. In the sub-optimal environment in Xishuangbanna, rubber trees undergo lengthy periods of defoliation and refoliation. The timing of refoliation from budburst to leaf aging could be affected by powdery mildew disease (Oidium heveae), which negatively impacts seed and latex production. Rubber trees are most susceptible to powdery mildew disease at the copper and leaf changing stages. Understanding and predicting leaf phenology of rubber trees are helpful to develop effective means of controlling the disease. This research investigated the effect of several meteorological factors on different leaf phenological stages in a sub-optimal environment for rubber cultivation in Jinghong, Yunnan in Southwest China. Partial least square regression was used to quantify the relationship between meteorological factors and recorded rubber phenologies from 2003 to 2011. Minimum temperature in December was found to be the critical factor for the leaf phenology development of rubber trees. Comparing the delayed effects of minimum temperature, the maximum temperature, diurnal temperature range, and sunshine hours were found to advancing leaf phenologies. A comparatively lower minimum temperature in December would facilitate the advancing of leaf phenologies of rubber trees. Higher levels of precipitation in February delayed the light green and the entire process of leaf aging. Delayed leaf phenology was found to be related to severe rubber powdery mildew disease. These results were used to build predictive models that could be applied to early warning systems of rubber powdery mildew disease.
Bombaugh, Ruth; Sparrow, Elena; Mal, Tarun
Describes how high school biology teachers can use the Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) program protocols and data in their classrooms. Includes background information on plant phenology, an overview of GLOBE phenology protocols and materials, and implications for protocols with both deciduous trees and grasses…
Pollen can be transported great distances. Van de Water et. al., 2003 reported Juniperus pollen, a significant aeroallergen was transported 200-600 km. Hence local observations of plant phenology may not be consistent with the timing and source of pollen collected by pollen sampling instruments. The DREAM (Dust REgional Atmospheric Model, Yin 2007) is a verified model for atmospheric dust transport modeling using MODIS data products to identify source regions and quantities of dust (Yin 2007). The use of satellite data products for studying phenology is well documented (White and Nemani 2006). We are modifying the DREAM model to incorporate pollen transport. The linkages already exist with DREAM through PHAiRS (Public Health Applications in remote Sensing) to the public health community. This linkage has the potential to fill this data gap so that health effects of pollen can better be tracked for linkage with health outcome data including asthma, respiratory effects, myocardial infarction, and lost work days. DREAM is based on the SKIRON/Eta modeling system and the Eta/NCEP regional atmospheric model. The dust modules of the entire system incorporate the state of the art parameterizations of all the major phases of the atmospheric dust life such as production, diffusion, advection, and removal. These modules also include effects of the particle size distribution on aerosol dispersion. The dust production mechanism is based on the viscous/turbulent mixing, shear-free convection diffusion, and soil moisture. In addition to these sophisticated mechanisms, very high resolution databases, including elevation, soil properties, and vegetation cover are utilized. The DREAM model was modified to use pollen sources instead of dust (PREAM). Pollen release will be estimated based on satellite-derived phenology of Juniperus spp. communities. The MODIS surface reflectance product (MOD09) will provide information on the start of the plant growing season, growth stage, peak
Sharron, Ed; Mitchell, Brian
A Workshop Exploring the Use of Phenology Studies for Public Engagement; New Orleans, Louisiana, 14 March 2011 ; During a George Wright Society Conference session that was led by the USA National Phenology Network (USANPN; http://www.usanpn.org) and the National Park Service (NPS), professionals from government organizations, nonprofits, and higher-education institutions came together to explore the possibilities of using phenology monitoring to engage the public. One of the most visible effects of global change on ecosystems is shifts in phenology: the timing of biological events such as leafing and flowering, maturation of agricultural plants, emergence of insects, and migration of birds. These shifts are already occurring and reflect biological responses to climate change at local to regional scales. Changes in phenology have important implications for species ecology and resource management and, because they are place-based and tangible, serve as an ideal platform for education, outreach, and citizen science.
Prevéy, Janet; Vellend, Mark; Rüger, Nadja; Hollister, Robert D; Bjorkman, Anne D; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Elmendorf, Sarah C; Clark, Karin; Cooper, Elisabeth J; Elberling, Bo; Fosaa, Anna M; Henry, Gregory H R; Høye, Toke T; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg S; Klanderud, Kari; Lévesque, Esther; Mauritz, Marguerite; Molau, Ulf; Natali, Susan M; Oberbauer, Steven F; Panchen, Zoe A; Post, Eric; Rumpf, Sabine B; Schmidt, Niels M; Schuur, Edward A G; Semenchuk, Phillip R; Troxler, Tiffany; Welker, Jeffrey M; Rixen, Christian
Warmer temperatures are accelerating the phenology of organisms around the world. Temperature sensitivity of phenology might be greater in colder, higher latitude sites than in warmer regions, in part because small changes in temperature constitute greater relative changes in thermal balance at colder sites. To test this hypothesis, we examined up to 20 years of phenology data for 47 tundra plant species at 18 high-latitude sites along a climatic gradient. Across all species, the timing of leaf emergence and flowering was more sensitive to a given increase in summer temperature at colder than warmer high-latitude locations. A similar pattern was seen over time for the flowering phenology of a widespread species, Cassiope tetragona. These are among the first results highlighting differential phenological responses of plants across a climatic gradient and suggest the possibility of convergence in flowering times and therefore an increase in gene flow across latitudes as the climate warms. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Ogilvie, Jane E; Forrest, Jessica Rk
Flowers are ephemeral, yet bees rely on them for food throughout their lives. Floral resource phenology - which can be altered by changes in climate and land-use - is therefore key to bee fitness and community composition. Here, we discuss the interactions between floral resource phenology, bee foraging behaviour, and traits such as diet breadth, sociality, and body size. Recent research on bumble bees has examined behavioural responses to local floral turnover and effects of landscape-scale floral resource phenology on fitness, abundance, and foraging distances. Comparable studies are needed on non-social, pollen-specialist species. We also encourage greater use of information contained in museum collections on bee phenologies and floral hosts to test how phenology has shaped the evolution of bee-plant associations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Goodsman, Devin W; Aukema, Brian H; McDowell, Nate G; Middleton, Richard S; Xu, Chonggang
Phenology models are becoming increasingly important tools to accurately predict how climate change will impact the life histories of organisms. We propose a class of integral projection phenology models derived from stochastic individual-based models of insect development and demography. Our derivation, which is based on the rate summation concept, produces integral projection models that capture the effect of phenotypic rate variability on insect phenology, but which are typically more computationally frugal than equivalent individual-based phenology models. We demonstrate our approach using a temperature-dependent model of the demography of the mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins), an insect that kills mature pine trees. This work illustrates how a wide range of stochastic phenology models can be reformulated as integral projection models. Due to their computational efficiency, these integral projection models are suitable for deployment in large-scale simulations, such as studies of altered pest distributions under climate change.
Jones, John W.; Aiello, Danielle P.; Osborne, Jesse D.
The weather data described in this document are being collected as part of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) study of changes in Shenandoah National Park (SNP) landscape phenology (Jones and Osbourne, 2008). Phenology is the study of the timing of biological events, such as annual plant flowering and seasonal bird migration. These events are partially driven by changes in temperature and precipitation; therefore, phenology studies how these events may reflect changes in climate. Landscape phenology is the study of changes in biological events over broad areas and assemblages of vegetation. To study climate-change relations over broad areas (at landscape scale), the timing and amount of annual tree leaf emergence, maximum foliage, and leaf fall for forested areas are of interest. To better link vegetation changes with climate, weather data are necessary. This report documents weather-station data collection and processing procedures used in the Shenandoah National Park Phenology Project.
The general prevalence of seasonal allergic rhinitis is estimated to be about 15% in Europe, and still increasing. Pre-emptive measures require both the reliable assessment of production and release of various pollen species and the forecasting of their atmospheric dispersion. For this purpose numerical pollen prediction schemes are being developed by a number of European weather services in order to supplement and improve the qualitative pollen prediction systems by state of the art instruments. Pollen emission is spatially and temporally highly variable throughout the vegetation period and not directly observed, which precludes a straightforward application of dispersion models to simulate pollen transport. Even the beginning and end of flowering, which indicates the time period of potential pollen emission, is not (yet) available in real time. One way to create a proxy for the beginning, the course and the end of the pollen emission is its simulation as function of real time temperature observations. In this work the European phenological data set of the COST725 initiative forms the basis of modelling the beginning of flowering of 15 species, some of which emit allergic pollen. In order to keep the problem as simple as possible for the sake of spatial interpolation, a 3 parameter temperature sum model was implemented in a real time operational procedure, which calculates the spatial distribution of the entry dates for the current day and 24, 48 and 72 hours in advance. As stand alone phenological model and combined with back trajectories it is thought to support the qualitative pollen prediction scheme at the Austrian national weather service. Apart from that it is planned to incorporate it in a numerical pollen dispersion model. More details, open questions and first results of the operation phenological model will be discussed and presented.
Grasslands represent roughly 70% of the agricultural land worldwide, are the backbone of animal husbandry and contribute substantially to agricultural income. At the farm scale a proper management of meadows and pastures is necessary to attain a balance between forage production and consumption. A good hold on grassland phenology is of paramount importance in this context, because forage quantity and quality critically depend on the developmental stage of the sward. Traditionally, empirical rules have been used to advise farmers in this respect. Yet the provision of supporting information for decision making would clearly benefit from dedicated tools that integrate reliable models of grassland phenology. As with annual crops, in process-based models grassland phenology is usually described as a linear function of so-called growing degree days, whereby data from field trials and monitoring networks are used to calibrate the relevant parameters. It is shown in this contribution that while the approach can provide reasonable estimates of key developmental stages in an average sense, it fails to account for the variability observed in managed grasslands across sites and years, in particular concerning the start of the growing season. The analysis rests on recent data from western Switzerland, which serve as a benchmark for simulations carried out with grassland models of increasing complexity. Reasons for an unsatisfactory model performance and possibilities to improve current models are discussed, including the necessity to better account for species composition, late season management decisions, as well as plant physiological processes taking place during the winter season. The need to compile existing, and collect new data doe managed grasslands is also stressed.
Full Text Available Major climate changes problems in the world have attracted attentions to the phenology and have improved studies in this field. Quantitative investigation of phenology, through recording the colour of different parts of plants can be a complement for quantitative method in determining exact appearance of the phenomena. In the present study the phenological characteristics of Ailanthus altissima has been identified, using two different methods including descriptive and digital repeated photography. In descriptive observations four trees in the campus of Isfahan University of Technology has been biweekly recorded for seven years and appearance of the phenomena has been registered. Digital photography of different parts of tree was accomplished for four years. The photo spectrum of the leaf and fruit of the tree were produced and the colors were analyzed in RGB system, with the resolution of eight bites (28 for each color. By determining the proportion of each primary color the tint was achieved, which can be easily interpreted. For determining the effect of temperature on colour changing in time, the 2G-RB Index was used. According to the descriptive observations of the flowering occurs from the beginning of May to the beginning of June and fruiting occurs in late June. In colour changing diagrams the intersection of green wavelength with red in late October exhibits a revolution in leaves colour. In the fruit colour diagrams, the first intersection takes place in coincidence with the appearance of green fruits and the second coincidence with the changing of colour from green to brown. Quantitative analysis indicates a significant correlation (P ≥ 0.05 between temperature and 2G-RB Index for both leaf and fruit.
Stoner, D.; Sexton, J. O.; Nagol, J. R.; Ironside, K.; Choate, D.; Longshore, K.; Edwards, T., Jr.
Plant phenology in arid and semi-arid ecoregions is constrained by water availability and governs the life history characteristics of primary and secondary consumers. We related the behavior, demography, and distribution of mammalian herbivores and their principal predator to remotely sensed vegetation and climatological indices across the western United States for the period 2000-2014. Across scales, terrain and topographic position moderates the effects of climatological drought on primary productivity, resulting in differential susceptibility among plant functional types to water stress. At broad scales, herbivores tie parturition to moist sites during the period of maximum increase in local forage production. Consequently, juvenile mortality is highest in regions of extreme phenological variability. Although decoupled from primary production by one or more trophic levels, carnivore home range size and density is negatively correlated to plant productivity and growing season length. At the finest scales, predation influences the behavior of herbivore prey through compromised habitat selection, in which maternal females trade nutritional benefits of high plant biomass for reduced mortality risk associated with increased visibility. Climate projections for the western United States predict warming combined with shifts in the timing and form of precipitation. Our analyses suggest that these changes will propagate through trophic levels as increased phenological variability and shifts in plant distributions, larger consumer home ranges, altered migration behavior, and generally higher volatility in wildlife populations. Combined with expansion and intensification of human land use across the region, these changes will likely have economic implications stemming from increased human-wildlife conflict (e.g., crop damage, vehicle collisions) and changes in wildlife-related tourism.
Eda, Masaki; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi
Many albatross remains have been found in the Japanese Islands and the surrounding areas, such as Sakhalin and South Korea. These remains are interesting for two reasons: numerous sites from which albatross remains have been found are located in coastal regions of the Far East where no albatrosses have been distributed recently, and there are some sites in which albatross remains represent a large portion of avian remains, although albatrosses are not easily preyed upon by human beings. We collected data on albatross remains from archaeological sites in the Far East regions during the Holocene and arranged the remains geographically, temporally and in terms of quantity. Based on these results, we showed that coastal areas along the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan have rarely been used by albatrosses in Modern times, though formerly there were many albatrosses. We proposed two explanations for the shrinkage of their distributional range: excessive hunting in the breeding areas, and distributional changes of prey for albatrosses.
Joschinski, Jens; Hovestadt, Thomas; Krauss, Jochen
Climate change can alter the phenology of organisms. It may thus lead seasonal organisms to face different day lengths than in the past, and the fitness consequences of these changes are as yet unclear. To study such effects, we used the pea aphid Acyrthosiphon pisum as a model organism, as it has obligately asexual clones which can be used to study day length effects without eliciting a seasonal response. We recorded life-history traits under short and long days, both with two realistic temp...
Background In woody plants from temperate regions, adaptation to the local climate results in annual cycles of growth and dormancy, and optimal regulation of these cycles are critical for growth, long-term survival, and competitive success. In this study we have investigated the genetic background to growth phenology in a Salix pedigree by assessing genetic and phenotypic variation in growth cessation, leaf senescence and bud burst in different years and environments. A previously constructed linkage map using the same pedigree and anchored to the annotated genome of P. trichocarpa was improved in target regions and used for QTL analysis of the traits. The major aims in this study were to map QTLs for phenology traits in Salix, and to identify candidate genes in QTL hot spots through comparative mapping with the closely related Populus trichocarpa. Results All traits varied significantly among genotypes and the broad-sense heritabilities ranged between 0.5 and 0.9, with the highest for leaf senescence. In total across experiment and years, 80 QTLs were detected. For individual traits, the QTLs explained together from 21.5 to 56.5% of the variation. Generally each individual QTL explained a low amount of the variation but three QTLs explained above 15% of the variation with one QTL for leaf senescence explaining 34% of the variation. The majority of the QTLs were recurrently identified across traits, years and environments. Two hotspots were identified on linkage group (LG) II and X where narrow QTLs for all traits co-localized. Conclusions This study provides the most detailed analysis of QTL detection for phenology in Salix conducted so far. Several hotspot regions were found where QTLs for different traits and QTLs for the same trait but identified during different years co-localised. Many QTLs co-localised with QTLs found in poplar for similar traits that could indicate common pathways for these traits in Salicaceae. This study is an important first step in
Chevet, Jean-Michel; Lecocq, Sebastien; Visser, Michael
This paper analyzes 19th and 20th century data from a well-known château in Bordeaux. The dataset includes information on weather conditions, starting dates of three phenological stages of grapevine, prices, and yields. We discuss how these variables have evolved over the last two centuries. We also study to what extent the impact of climate on yields and prices has changed over time. Our regression analysis suggests that the effect of temperature on yields has become weaker since the 19th ce...
Weltzin, J. F.
Earth observations from a variety of platforms and across a range of scales are required to support research, natural resource management, and policy- and decision-making in a changing world. Integrated earth observation data provides multi-faceted information critical to decision support, vulnerability and change detection, risk assessments, early warning and modeling, simulation and forecasting in the natural resource societal benefit area. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; www.usanpn.org) is a national-scale science and monitoring initiative focused on phenology - the study of seasonal life-cycle events such as leafing, flowering, reproduction, and migration - as a tool to understand the response of biodiversity to environmental variation and change. USA-NPN provides a hierarchical, national monitoring framework that enables other organizations to leverage the capacity of the Network for their own applications - minimizing investment and duplication of effort - while promoting interoperability and sustainability. Over the last decade, the network has focused on the development of a centralized database for in-situ (ground based) observations of plants and animals, now with 8 M records for the period 1954-present. More recently, we have developed a workflow for the production and validation of spatially gridded phenology products based on models that couple the organismal data with climatological and meteorological data at daily time-steps and relatively fine spatial resolutions ( 2.5 km to 4 km). These gridded data are now ripe for integration with other modeled or earth observation gridded data, e.g., indices of drought impact or land surface reflectance. This greatly broadens capacity to scale organismal observational data to landscapes and regions, and enables novel investigations of biophysical interactions at unprecedented scales, e.g., continental-scale migrations. Sustainability emerges from identification of stakeholder needs, segmentation of
Der Sarkissian, Clio; Ermini, Luca; Jónsson, Hákon
Millions to billions of DNA sequences can now be generated from ancient skeletal remains thanks to the massive throughput of next-generation sequencing platforms. Except in cases of exceptional endogenous DNA preservation, most of the sequences isolated from fossil material do not originate from...... community profiling of the seven specimens revealed site-specific environmental signatures. These microbial communities appear to comprise mainly organisms that colonized the fossils recently. Our approach significantly extends the amount of useful data that can be recovered from ancient specimens using...
Der Sarkissian, C; Ermini, L; Jónsson, H; Alekseev, A N; Crubezy, E; Shapiro, B; Orlando, L
Millions to billions of DNA sequences can now be generated from ancient skeletal remains thanks to the massive throughput of next-generation sequencing platforms. Except in cases of exceptional endogenous DNA preservation, most of the sequences isolated from fossil material do not originate from the specimen of interest, but instead reflect environmental organisms that colonized the specimen after death. Here, we characterize the microbial diversity recovered from seven c. 200- to 13 000-year-old horse bones collected from northern Siberia. We use a robust, taxonomy-based assignment approach to identify the microorganisms present in ancient DNA extracts and quantify their relative abundance. Our results suggest that molecular preservation niches exist within ancient samples that can potentially be used to characterize the environments from which the remains are recovered. In addition, microbial community profiling of the seven specimens revealed site-specific environmental signatures. These microbial communities appear to comprise mainly organisms that colonized the fossils recently. Our approach significantly extends the amount of useful data that can be recovered from ancient specimens using a shotgun sequencing approach. In future, it may be possible to correlate, for example, the accumulation of postmortem DNA damage with the presence and/or abundance of particular microbes. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Richardson, A. D.
Phenology is one of the most robust indicators of the biological impacts of global change. However, the response of phenology to future environmental conditions still remains highly uncertain because of the challenges associated with conducting realistic manipulative experiments. At the SPRUCE (Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change) experiment in the north-central United States, experimental temperature (0 to +9°C above ambient) and CO2 (ambient and elevated) treatments are being applied to mature, and intact, Picea mariana-Sphagnum spp. bog communities in their native habitat through the use of ten large (approximately 12 m wide, 10 m high) open-topped enclosures. We are tracking vegetation green-up and senescence in these chambers using repeat digital photography. Within each chamber, images are recorded every 30 minutes and uploaded to PhenoCam (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu), where processed to yield quantitative measures of canopy color. These data are complemented by on-the-ground phenological data collected by human observers. Air warming treatments at SPRUCE began in August 2015. We observed a delay in senescence during autumn 2015 (2-5 days per degree of warming) and an advance in onset during spring 2016 (1-4 days per degree of warming). These patterns are robust across species and methods of phenological observation (i.e. camera-based vs. human observer). And, our results show very little evidence for photoperiod acting as a constraint on the response to warming. Early spring onset and consequent loss of frost hardiness in the warmest chambers proved disadvantageous when a brief period of extreme cold (to -12°C in the control chambers, to -3°C in the +9°C chambers) followed a month of generally mild weather. Foliage mortality for both Larix and Picea was immediate and severe, although both species subsequently re-flushed. These results give support for the hypothesis that warming may enhance the likelihood of spring frost
The safety assessment and licensing of liquid-metal fast breeder reactors (LMFBRs) requires an analysis on the capability of the reactor primary system to sustain the consequences of a hypothetical core-disruptive accident (HCDA). Although computational methods and computer programs developed for HCDA analyses can predict reasonably well the response of the primary containment system, and follow up the phenomena of HCDA from the start of excursion to the time of dynamic equilibrium in the system, there remain areas in the HCDA analysis that merit further analytical and experimental studies. These are the analysis of fluid impact on reactor cover, three-dimensional analysis, the treatment of the perforated plates, material properties under high strain rates and under high temperatures, the treatment of multifield flows, and the treatment of prestressed concrete reactor vessels. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the structural mechanics of HCDA analysis in these areas where improvements are needed
This paper reports that it is possible to discuss the significance of political and energy events separately, but, in truth, they are intricately interwoven. Furthermore, there are those who will argue that since the two are inseparable, the future is not predictable; so why bother in the endeavor. It is possible that the central point of the exercise may have been missed-yes, the future is unpredictable exclamation point However, the objective of prediction is secondary. The objective of understanding the dynamic forces of change is primary exclamation point With this view of recent history, it is perhaps appropriate to pause and think about the future of the petroleum industry. The future as shaped by political, energy, economic, environmental and technological forces will direct our lives and markets during this decade. Most importantly, what will be the direction that successful businesses take to remain competitive in a global environment? These are interesting issues worthy of provocative thoughts and innovative ideas
Le Ngoc, Boris
The author herein outlines the several benefits of nuclear energy and nuclear industry for France. He first outlines that France possesses 97 per cent of de-carbonated electricity thanks to nuclear energy (77 pc) and renewable energies (20 pc, mainly hydraulic), and that renewable energies must be developed in the building and transport sectors to be able to get rid of the environmentally and financially costly fossil energies. He outlines that reactor maintenance and the nuclear fuel cycle industry are fields of technological leadership for the French nuclear industry which is, after motor industry and aircraft industry, the third industrial sector in France. He indicates that nuclear electricity is to remain the most competitive one, and that nuclear energy and renewable energies must not be opposed to it but considered as complementary in the struggle against climate change, i.e. to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to get rid of the prevalence of fossil energies
Full Text Available Hypertension is a common complication of kidney transplantation with the prevalence of 80%. Studies in adults have shown a high prevalence of hypertension (HTN in the first three months of transplantation while this rate is reduced to 50- 60% at the end of the first year. HTN remains as a major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, lower graft survival rates and poor function of transplanted kidney in adults and children. In this retrospective study, medical records of 400 kidney transplantation patients of Sina Hospital were evaluated. Patients were followed monthly for the 1st year, every two months in the 2nd year and every three months after that. In this study 244 (61% patients were male. Mean ± SD age of recipients was 39.3 ± 13.8 years. In most patients (40.8% the cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD was unknown followed by HTN (26.3%. A total of 166 (41.5% patients had been hypertensive before transplantation and 234 (58.5% had normal blood pressure. Among these 234 individuals, 94 (40.2% developed post-transplantation HTN. On the other hand, among 166 pre-transplant hypertensive patients, 86 patients (56.8% remained hypertensive after transplantation. Totally 180 (45% patients had post-transplantation HTN and 220 patients (55% didn't develop HTN. Based on the findings, the incidence of post-transplantation hypertension is high, and kidney transplantation does not lead to remission of hypertension. On the other hand, hypertension is one of the main causes of ESRD. Thus, early screening of hypertension can prevent kidney damage and reduce further problems in renal transplant recipients.
Kim, Y.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Aleinov, Igor; Puma, M. J.; Kiang, N. Y.
The Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM) is a mixed-canopy dynamic global vegetation model developed specifically for coupling with land surface hydrology and general circulation models (GCMs). This study describes the leaf phenology submodel implemented in the Ent TBM version 220.127.116.11.0 coupled to the carbon allocation scheme of the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model. The phenology submodel adopts a combination of responses to temperature (growing degree days and frost hardening), soil moisture (linearity of stress with relative saturation) and radiation (light length). Growth of leaves, sapwood, fine roots, stem wood and coarse roots is updated on a daily basis. We evaluate the performance in reproducing observed leaf seasonal growth as well as water and carbon fluxes for four plant functional types at five Fluxnet sites, with both observed and prognostic hydrology, and observed and prognostic seasonal leaf area index. The phenology submodel is able to capture the timing and magnitude of leaf-out and senescence for temperate broadleaf deciduous forest (Harvard Forest and Morgan- Monroe State Forest, US), C3 annual grassland (Vaira Ranch, US) and California oak savanna (Tonzi Ranch, US). For evergreen needleleaf forest (Hyytiäla, Finland), the phenology submodel captures the effect of frost hardening of photosynthetic capacity on seasonal fluxes and leaf area. We address the importance of customizing parameter sets of vegetation soil moisture stress response to the particular land surface hydrology scheme. We identify model deficiencies that reveal important dynamics and parameter needs.
C. F. Chen
Full Text Available Rice is the most important food crop in Vietnam, providing food more than 90 million people and is considered as an essential source of income for majority of rural populations. Monitoring rice-growing areas is thus important to developing successful strategies for food security in the country. This paper aims to develop an approach for crop acreage estimation from multi-temporal Sentinel-1A data. We processed the data for two main cropping seasons (e.g., winter–spring, summer–autumn in the Mekong River Delta (MRD, Vietnam through three main steps: (1 data pre-processing, (3 rice classification based on crop phenological metrics, and (4 accuracy assessment of the mapping results. The classification results compared with the ground reference data indicated the overall accuracy of 86.2% and Kappa coefficient of 0.72. These results were reaffirmed by close correlation between the government’s rice area statistics for such crops (R2 > 0.95. The values of relative error in area obtained for the winter–spring and summer–autumn were -3.6% and 6.7%, respectively. This study demonstrates the potential application of multi-temporal Sentinel-1A data for rice crop mapping using information of crop phenology in the study region.
Vitasse, Yann; Signarbieux, Constant; Fu, Yongshuo H
One hundred years ago, Andrew D. Hopkins estimated the progressive delay in tree leaf-out with increasing latitude, longitude, and elevation, referred to as "Hopkins' bioclimatic law." What if global warming is altering this well-known law? Here, based on ∼20,000 observations of the leaf-out date of four common temperate tree species located in 128 sites at various elevations in the European Alps, we found that the elevation-induced phenological shift (EPS) has significantly declined from 34 d⋅1,000 m -1 conforming to Hopkins' bioclimatic law in 1960, to 22 d⋅1,000 m -1 in 2016, i.e., -35%. The stronger phenological advance at higher elevations, responsible for the reduction in EPS, is most likely to be connected to stronger warming during late spring as well as to warmer winter temperatures. Indeed, under similar spring temperatures, we found that the EPS was substantially reduced in years when the previous winter was warmer. Our results provide empirical evidence for a declining EPS over the last six decades. Future climate warming may further reduce the EPS with consequences for the structure and function of mountain forest ecosystems, in particular through changes in plant-animal interactions, but the actual impact of such ongoing change is today largely unknown.
As part of the development of an early detection monitoring strategy for non-native fishes, larval fish surveys have been conducted since 2012 in the St. Louis River estuary. Survey data demonstrates there is considerable variability in fish abundance and species assemblages across different habitats and at multiple temporal scales. To optimize early detection monitoring we need to understand temporal and spatial patterns of larval fishes related to their development and dispersion, as well as the environmental factors that influence them. In 2016 we designed an experiment to assess the phenological variability in larval fish abundance and assemblages amongst shallow water habitats. Specifically, we sought to contrast different thermal environments and turbidity levels, as well as assess the importance of vegetation in these habitats. To evaluate phenological differences we sampled larval fish bi-weekly at nine locations from mid-May to mid-July. Sampling locations were split between upper estuary and lower estuary to contrast river versus seiche influenced habitats. To assess differences in thermal environments, temperature was monitored every 15 minutes at each sampling location throughout the study, beginning in early April. Our design also included sampling at both vegetated (or pre-vegetated) and non-vegetated stations within each sampling location throughout the study to assess the importance of this habitat variable. Hydroacoustic surveys (Biosonics) were
Full Text Available Systematic phenological observations have been carried out in the Dendrological Garden of August Cieszkowski Agricultural University, Park Sołacki, Lasek Golęciński, Przybyszewskiego Street, for two years (2003, 2004. The selected species of deciduous trees, as Betula pendula, Corylus avellana, Platanus x hispanica. There was interdependence between the course of flowering process and weather conditions. Long and frosty winter at the turn of 2002/2003 and subzero mean temperatures in the first quarter of 2003 delayed vegetation. Rapid coming of early spring in the year 2004 accelerate the development of generative organs. Each year spring ground frost during flowering did not inhibit this process. All the investigated tree species are anemophilous and produce large amounts of allergenic pollen grain. They cause allergic reactions throughout the whole period of pollen discharge. Male inflorescences in Corylus avellana, blooming very early, are one of the first plants causing allergic reactions. Betula pendula is the next to bloom, followed by Platanus x hispanica. Observations of phenological phases may provide useful information forecasting the beginning of the period of increased pollen concentration in air.
Leverett, Lindsay D
A single plant can interact both positively and negatively with its neighbors through the processes of facilitation and competition, respectively. Much of the variation in the balance of facilitation and competition that individuals experience can be explained by the degree of physical stress and the sizes or ages of plants during the interaction. Germination phenology partly controls both of these factors, but its role in defining the facilitation-competition balance has not been explicitly considered. I performed an experiment in a population of the winter annual Arabidopsis thaliana (Brassicaceae) to test whether germinating during physically stressful periods leads to facilitation while germinating during periods that promote growth and reproduction leads to competition. I manipulated germination and neighbor presence across two years in order to quantify the effects of the local plant community on survival, fecundity, and total fitness as a function of germination phenology. Neighbors increased survival when germination occurred under conditions that were unsuitable for survival, but they reduced fecundity in germinants that were otherwise the most fecund. Later germination was associated with facilitation in the first year but competition in the second year. These episodes of facilitation and competition opposed each other, leading to no net effect of neighbors when averaged over all cohorts. These results indicate that variation in germination timing can explain some of the variation in the facilitation-competition balance in plant communities. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.
Chen, C. F.; Son, N. T.; Chen, C. R.; Chang, L. Y.; Chiang, S. H.
Rice is the most important food crop in Vietnam, providing food more than 90 million people and is considered as an essential source of income for majority of rural populations. Monitoring rice-growing areas is thus important to developing successful strategies for food security in the country. This paper aims to develop an approach for crop acreage estimation from multi-temporal Sentinel-1A data. We processed the data for two main cropping seasons (e.g., winter-spring, summer-autumn) in the Mekong River Delta (MRD), Vietnam through three main steps: (1) data pre-processing, (3) rice classification based on crop phenological metrics, and (4) accuracy assessment of the mapping results. The classification results compared with the ground reference data indicated the overall accuracy of 86.2% and Kappa coefficient of 0.72. These results were reaffirmed by close correlation between the government's rice area statistics for such crops (R2 > 0.95). The values of relative error in area obtained for the winter-spring and summer-autumn were -3.6% and 6.7%, respectively. This study demonstrates the potential application of multi-temporal Sentinel-1A data for rice crop mapping using information of crop phenology in the study region.
Yoirentomba Meetei SINAM
Full Text Available Aconitum species have been traditionally used as ethnomedicine to cure various ailments. The present study reveals the morpho-phenology and antibacterial property of alkaloid extracts of the two Aconitum species. The morpho-phenological characteristics will be helpful for determining the resource availability. Aconitum nagarum is erect type, whereas, Aconitum elwesii is a climber. Aconitum elwesii grows in advance of A. nagarum in terms of growth, flowering and senescence. Towards the end of the year, when the fruits have ripened, the parent tuber dies off. As a result, the daughter tuber becomes independent and in the following spring, takes over the function of the parent tuber. Aconitum nagarum and A. elwesii were found to contain 4-5 aconitine equivalent (AE mg/g of alkaloid. These alkaloids showed antibacterial activity against different bacterial species including human pathogens, namely, Staphylococcus aureus, Salmonella typhimurium, Bordetella bronchiseptica, Escherichia coli, Bacillus subtilis, Pseudomonas putida, Pseudomonas fluorescence and Xanthomonas campestris. However, the extent of antibacterial activity varied among different bacterial species. The antibacterial activity against S. aureus, B. bronchiseptica, and B. subtilis was bactericidal in nature, whereas, against other tested bacterial species was bacteriostatic. Efficacy of the antibacterial activity of these alkaloids was evaluated by comparing with that of standard antibiotics. Differential localization of the antibacterial principle was observed among the Aconitum species studied.
Full Text Available As the water drive reservoir enters extra high water cut stage (greater than 80%, remaining oil distribution becomes increasingly dispersed. Research on micro residual oil in pore appears particularly important for reservoir development at extra high water cut stage. Oil occurrence characteristics recognition helps to understand the distribution of remaining oil and the mechanical characteristics of oil is the guide for tapping the remaining oil. On the basis of pore scale oilâwater two phase flow experiments, micro distribution of remaining oil is divided into four occurrence states in accordance with oil features at different stage of water flooding, the flake of remaining oil, oil column, oil droplet and oil film. A quantitative characterization method of remaining oil occurrence states is established. By using micro numerical simulation method, change rules of four occurrence states of remaining oil during the process of water displacement and the mechanical characteristics of different occurrence state of remaining oil are analyzed. Results show that the continuous oil phase gradually transforms to discontinuous phase and even to dispersed phases during the water flooding process. At extra high water cut stage, most of remaining oil are dispersed oil columns, oil droplets and oil films, which are the main target of remaining oil to be tapped. By changing water flow direction or increasing the displacement pressure gradient, the surface adsorption force acting on oil columns are overcome, and then the oil columns begin to move and finally to be produced out. Oil droplets in pore-throat center are scoured and carried out by water as the increase of the injection volume, while the oil droplets in blind ends and the oil films are extracted out by adding chemicals to reduce the interfacial tension, so as to enhance oil recovery. For water flooding reservoir, the corresponding tapping measures for four types of oil occurrence states brought
Youngflesh, Casey; Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Li, Yun; Ji, Rubao; Ainley, David G.; Ballard, Grant; Barbraud, Christophe; Delord, Karine; Dugger, Catherine; Emmerson, Loiuse M.; Fraser, William R.; Hinke, Jefferson T.; Lyver, Phil O'B.; Olmastroni, Silvia; Southwell, Colin J.; Trivelpiece, Susan G.; Trivelpiece, Wayne Z.; Lynch, Heather J.
Evidence of climate-change-driven shifts in plant and animal phenology have raised concerns that certain trophic interactions may be increasingly mismatched in time, resulting in declines in reproductive success. Given the constraints imposed by extreme seasonality at high latitudes and the rapid shifts in phenology seen in the Arctic, we would also expect Antarctic species to be highly vulnerable to climate-change-driven phenological mismatches with their environment. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of phenological change in Antarctica. Using the largest database of phytoplankton phenology, sea-ice phenology, and Adélie Penguin breeding phenology and breeding success assembled to date, we find that, while a temporal match between Penguin breeding phenology and optimal environmental conditions sets an upper limit on breeding success, only a weak relationship to the mean exists. Despite previous work suggesting that divergent trends in Adélie Penguin breeding phenology are apparent across the Antarctic continent, we find no such trends. Furthermore, we find no trend in the magnitude of phenological mismatch, suggesting that mismatch is driven by interannual variability in environmental conditions rather than climate-change-driven trends, as observed in other systems. We propose several criteria necessary for a species to experience a strong climate-change-driven phenological mismatch, of which several may be violated by this system.
Daïnou, Kasso; Laurenty, Eric; Mahy, Grégory; Hardy, Olivier J; Brostaux, Yves; Tagg, Nikki; Doucet, Jean-Louis
Population genetic structuring over limited timescales is commonly viewed as a consequence of spatial constraints. Indirect approaches have recently revealed reproductive isolation resulting from flowering time (so-called isolation by time, IBT). Since phenological processes can be subject to selection, the persistence of flowering asynchrony may be due to opposing selective pressures during mating, dispersal, and regeneration phases. Our study aimed to investigate phenology, fruit handling by animals, and their interaction in a timber tree species, Milicia excelsa. We analyzed phenological data collected over 6 years on 69 genotyped trees in a Cameroonian natural rainforest complemented by data from germination trials and field observations of dispersers. Initiation of flowering was correlated with variation in temperature and relative humidity, but was also affected by genetic factors: pairwise differences in flowering time between nearby individuals correlated with kinship coefficient, and earliness of flowering remained stable over time. A decrease in mean seed production per fruit with increasing flowering time suggests selection against late bloomers. However, germination rate was not affected by seed collection date, and the main seed disperser, the bat Eidolon helvum, seemed to increase in abundance at the end of the reproductive season and preferred trees in open habitats where early and late bloomers are expected. The pairwise approach performs well in detecting IBT. The persistence of different mating pools in such a case may result from a trade off between selective forces during the mating and seed dispersal processes.
Byard, Roger W; James, Ross A; Heath, Karen J
Two cases of fatal shark attack are reported where the only tissues recovered were fragments of lung. Case 1: An 18-year-old male who was in the sea behind a boat was observed by friends to be taken by a great white shark (Carcharodon carcharias). The shark dragged him under the water and then, with a second shark, dismembered the body. Witnesses noted a large amount of blood and unrecognizable body parts coming to the surface. The only tissues recovered despite an intensive beach and sea search were 2 fragments of lung. Case 2: A 19-year-old male was attacked by a great white shark while diving. A witness saw the shark swim away with the victim's body in its mouth. Again, despite intensive beach and sea searches, the only tissue recovered was a single piece of lung, along with pieces of wetsuit and diving equipment. These cases indicate that the only tissue to escape being consumed or lost in fatal shark attacks, where there is a significant attack with dismemberment and disruption of the integrity of the body, may be lung. The buoyancy of aerated pulmonary tissue ensures that it rises quickly to the surface, where it may be recovered by searchers soon after the attack. Aeration of the lung would be in keeping with death from trauma rather than from drowning and may be a useful marker in unwitnessed deaths to separate ante- from postmortem injury, using only relatively small amounts of tissues. Early organ recovery enhances the identification of human tissues as the extent of morphologic alterations by putrefactive processes and sea scavengers will have been minimized. DNA testing is also possible on such recovered fragments, enabling confirmation of the identity of the victim.
Full Text Available Heavy metal pollution of croplands is a major environmental problem worldwide. Methods for accurately and quickly monitoring heavy metal stress have important practical significance. Many studies have explored heavy metal stress in rice in relation to physiological function or physiological factors, but few studies have considered phenology, which can be sensitive to heavy metal stress. In this study, we used an integrated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI time-series image set to extract remote sensing phenology. A phenological indicator relatively sensitive to heavy metal stress was chosen from the obtained phenological periods and phenological parameters. The Dry Weight of Roots (WRT, which directly affected by heavy metal stress, was simulated by the World Food Study (WOFOST model; then, a feature space based on the phenological indicator and WRT was established for monitoring heavy metal stress. The results indicated that the feature space can distinguish the heavy metal stress levels in rice, with accuracy greater than 95% for distinguishing the severe stress level. This finding provides scientific evidence for combining rice phenology and physiological characteristics in time and space, and the method is useful to monitor heavy metal stress in rice.
Searle, Kate R; Rice, Mindy B; Anderson, Charles R; Bishop, Chad; Hobbs, N T
Understanding how spatial and temporal heterogeneity influence ecological processes forms a central challenge in ecology. Individual responses to heterogeneity shape population dynamics, therefore understanding these responses is central to sustainable population management. Emerging evidence has shown that herbivores track heterogeneity in nutritional quality of vegetation by responding to phenological differences in plants. We quantified the benefits mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) accrue from accessing habitats with asynchronous plant phenology in northwest Colorado over 3 years. Our analysis examined both the direct physiological and indirect environmental effects of weather and vegetation phenology on mule deer winter body condition. We identified several important effects of annual weather patterns and topographical variables on vegetation phenology in the home ranges of mule deer. Crucially, temporal patterns of vegetation phenology were linked with differences in body condition, with deer tending to show poorer body condition in areas with less asynchronous vegetation green-up and later vegetation onset. The direct physiological effect of previous winter precipitation on mule deer body condition was much less important than the indirect effect mediated by vegetation phenology. Additionally, the influence of vegetation phenology on body fat was much stronger than that of overall vegetation productivity. In summary, changing annual weather patterns, particularly in relation to seasonal precipitation, have the potential to alter body condition of this important ungulate species during the critical winter period. This finding highlights the importance of maintaining large contiguous areas of spatially and temporally variable resources to allow animals to compensate behaviourally for changing climate-driven resource patterns.
Munson, Seth M; Sher, Anna A
• Mountainous regions support high plant productivity, diversity, and endemism, yet are highly vulnerable to climate change. Historical records and model predictions show increasing temperatures across high elevation regions including the Southern Rocky Mountains, which can have a strong influence on the performance and distribution of montane plant species. Rare plant species can be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their limited abundance and distribution.• We tracked the phenology of rare and endemic species, which are identified as imperiled, across three different habitat types with herbarium records to determine if flowering time has changed over the last century, and if phenological change was related to shifts in climate.• We found that the flowering date of rare species has accelerated 3.1 d every decade (42 d total) since the late 1800s, with plants in sagebrush interbasins showing the strongest accelerations in phenology. High winter temperatures were associated with the acceleration of phenology in low elevation sagebrush and barren river habitats, whereas high spring temperatures explained accelerated phenology in the high elevation alpine habitat. In contrast, high spring temperatures delayed the phenology of plant species in the two low-elevation habitats and precipitation had mixed effects depending on the season.• These results provide evidence for large shifts in the phenology of rare Rocky Mountain plants related to climate, which can have strong effects on plant fitness, the abundance of associated wildlife, and the future of plant conservation in mountainous regions. © 2015 Botanical Society of America, Inc.
Liu, Tianjiao; Liu, Xiangnan; Liu, Meiling; Wu, Ling
Heavy metal pollution of croplands is a major environmental problem worldwide. Methods for accurately and quickly monitoring heavy metal stress have important practical significance. Many studies have explored heavy metal stress in rice in relation to physiological function or physiological factors, but few studies have considered phenology, which can be sensitive to heavy metal stress. In this study, we used an integrated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series image set to extract remote sensing phenology. A phenological indicator relatively sensitive to heavy metal stress was chosen from the obtained phenological periods and phenological parameters. The Dry Weight of Roots (WRT), which directly affected by heavy metal stress, was simulated by the World Food Study (WOFOST) model; then, a feature space based on the phenological indicator and WRT was established for monitoring heavy metal stress. The results indicated that the feature space can distinguish the heavy metal stress levels in rice, with accuracy greater than 95% for distinguishing the severe stress level. This finding provides scientific evidence for combining rice phenology and physiological characteristics in time and space, and the method is useful to monitor heavy metal stress in rice.
Keenan, Trevor [Harvard University; Gray, Josh [Boston University; Friedl, Mark [Boston University; Toomey, Michael [Harvard University; Bohrer, Gil [Ohio State University; Hollinger, David [USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station; Munger, J. William [Harvard University; OKeefe, John [Harvard Forest (Harvard University), Massachusetts; Hans, Schmid [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; Wing, Ian [Boston University; Yang, Bai [ORNL; Richardson, Andrew D. [Harvard University
The timing of phenological events exerts a strong control over ecosystem function and leads to multiple feedbacks to the climate system1. Phenology is inherently sensitive to temperature (though the exact sensitivity is disputed2) and recent warming is reported to have led to earlier spring, later autumn3,4 and increased vegetation activity5,6. Such greening could be expected to enhance ecosystem carbon uptake7,8, though reports also suggest decreased uptake for boreal forests4,9. Here we assess changes in phenology of temperate forests over the eastern US during the past two decades, and quantify the resulting changes in forest carbon storage. We combine long-term ground observations of phenology, satellite indices, and ecosystem-scale carbon dioxide flux measurements, along with 18 terrestrial biosphere models. We observe a strong trend of earlier spring and later autumn. In contrast to previous suggestions4,9 we show that carbon uptake through photosynthesis increased considerably more than carbon release through respiration for both an earlier spring and later autumn. The terrestrial biosphere models tested misrepresent the temperature sensitivity of phenology, and thus the effect on carbon uptake. Our analysis of the temperature-phenology-carbon coupling suggests a current and possible future enhancement of forest carbon uptake due to changes in phenology. This constitutes a negative feedback to climate change, and is serving to slow the rate of warming.
Iler, Amy M.; Høye, Toke T.; Inouye, David W.; Schmidt, Niels M.
Many alpine and subalpine plant species exhibit phenological advancements in association with earlier snowmelt. While the phenology of some plant species does not advance beyond a threshold snowmelt date, the prevalence of such threshold phenological responses within plant communities is largely unknown. We therefore examined the shape of flowering phenology responses (linear versus nonlinear) to climate using two long-term datasets from plant communities in snow-dominated environments: Gothic, CO, USA (1974–2011) and Zackenberg, Greenland (1996–2011). For a total of 64 species, we determined whether a linear or nonlinear regression model best explained interannual variation in flowering phenology in response to increasing temperatures and advancing snowmelt dates. The most common nonlinear trend was for species to flower earlier as snowmelt advanced, with either no change or a slower rate of change when snowmelt was early (average 20% of cases). By contrast, some species advanced their flowering at a faster rate over the warmest temperatures relative to cooler temperatures (average 5% of cases). Thus, some species seem to be approaching their limits of phenological change in response to snowmelt but not temperature. Such phenological thresholds could either be a result of minimum springtime photoperiod cues for flowering or a slower rate of adaptive change in flowering time relative to changing climatic conditions. PMID:23836793
During the phenological cycle of winegrapes, the timing of specific events and the length between the events are critical to the production of quality fruit and wine. In addition, winegrapes are typically grown in climates that optimize the ripening characteristics for specific varieties. These narrow geographical zones place the production of wine at a greater risk from climate variability and change than other more broadly based agricultural crops. To analyze the relationships between phenology, climate, and wine quality, data from three prominent regions in France-Bordeaux, Burgundy, and Champagne-are used. Long-term phenological data for bud break, flowering, veraison, and harvest dates for Pinot Noir in Burgundy and Champagne and for Merlot and Cabernet Sauvignon are examined for trends, climatic influences, and the general effects on wine quality. The results reveal significantly earlier events (6-14 days) with shorter intervals between events (5-12 days) across all regions. In addition, warmer growing seasons have clearly influenced these changes in the phenological cycle of winegrapes in France. Furthermore, changes in phenology and growing season temperatures are related to better fruit composition and increases in vintage ratings over the last 30-40 years. However, some of the warmest growing seasons, with very early phenology and short intervals, have resulted in lower quality. The results point to potential threshold issues whereby any further warming will likely compromise the phenological characteristics, ripening profiles, and wine quality of the varieties currently being grown.
Full Text Available Dealing with coloured point cloud acquired from terrestrial laser scanner, this paper identifies remaining challenges for a new data structure: the smart point cloud. This concept arises with the statement that massive and discretized spatial information from active remote sensing technology is often underused due to data mining limitations. The generalisation of point cloud data associated with the heterogeneity and temporality of such datasets is the main issue regarding structure, segmentation, classification, and interaction for an immediate understanding. We propose to use both point cloud properties and human knowledge through machine learning to rapidly extract pertinent information, using user-centered information (smart data rather than raw data. A review of feature detection, machine learning frameworks and database systems indexed both for mining queries and data visualisation is studied. Based on existing approaches, we propose a new 3-block flexible framework around device expertise, analytic expertise and domain base reflexion. This contribution serves as the first step for the realisation of a comprehensive smart point cloud data structure.
Poux, F.; Hallot, P.; Neuville, R.; Billen, R.
Dealing with coloured point cloud acquired from terrestrial laser scanner, this paper identifies remaining challenges for a new data structure: the smart point cloud. This concept arises with the statement that massive and discretized spatial information from active remote sensing technology is often underused due to data mining limitations. The generalisation of point cloud data associated with the heterogeneity and temporality of such datasets is the main issue regarding structure, segmentation, classification, and interaction for an immediate understanding. We propose to use both point cloud properties and human knowledge through machine learning to rapidly extract pertinent information, using user-centered information (smart data) rather than raw data. A review of feature detection, machine learning frameworks and database systems indexed both for mining queries and data visualisation is studied. Based on existing approaches, we propose a new 3-block flexible framework around device expertise, analytic expertise and domain base reflexion. This contribution serves as the first step for the realisation of a comprehensive smart point cloud data structure.
Full Text Available In 1977 the wreck of HMS Pandora (the ship that was sent to re-capture the Bounty mutineers was discovered off the north coast of Queensland. Since 1983, the Queensland Museum Maritime Archaeology section has carried out systematic excavation of the wreck. During the years 1986 and 1995-1998, more than 200 human bone and bone fragments were recovered. Osteological investigation revealed that this material represented three males. Their ages were estimated at approximately 17 +/-2 years, 22 +/-3 years and 28 +/-4 years, with statures of 168 +/-4cm, 167 +/-4cm, and 166cm +/-3cm respectively. All three individuals were probably Caucasian, although precise determination of ethnicity was not possible. In addition to poor dental hygiene, signs of chronic diseases suggestive of rickets and syphilis were observed. Evidence of spina bifida was seen on one of the skeletons, as were other skeletal anomalies. Various taphonomic processes affecting the remains were also observed and described. Compact bone was observed under the scanning electron microscope and found to be structurally coherent. Profiles of the three skeletons were compared with historical information about the 35 men lost with the ship, but no precise identification could be made. The investigation did not reveal the cause of death. Further research, such as DNA analysis, is being carried out at the time of publication.
Gerst, Katharine L.; Kellermann, Jherime L.; Enquist, Carolyn A. F.; Rosemartin, Alyssa H.; Denny, Ellen G.
Phenology is an important indicator of ecological response to climate change. Yet, phenological responses are highly variable among species and biogeographic regions. Recent monitoring initiatives have generated large phenological datasets comprised of observations from both professionals and volunteers. Because the observation frequency is often variable, there is uncertainty associated with estimating the timing of phenological activity. "Status monitoring" is an approach that focuses on recording observations throughout the full development of life cycle stages rather than only first dates in order to quantify uncertainty in generating phenological metrics, such as onset dates or duration. However, methods for using status data and calculating phenological metrics are not standardized. To understand how data selection criteria affect onset estimates of springtime leaf-out, we used status-based monitoring data curated by the USA National Phenology Network for 11 deciduous tree species in the eastern USA between 2009 and 2013. We asked, (1) How are estimates of the date of leaf-out onset, at the site and regional levels, influenced by different data selection criteria and methods for calculating onset, and (2) at the regional level, how does the timing of leaf-out relate to springtime minimum temperatures across latitudes and species? Results indicate that, to answer research questions at site to landscape levels, data users may need to apply more restrictive data selection criteria to increase confidence in calculating phenological metrics. However, when answering questions at the regional level, such as when investigating spatiotemporal patterns across a latitudinal gradient, there is low risk of acquiring erroneous results by maximizing sample size when using status-derived phenological data.
Jochner, Susanne C; Sparks, Tim H; Estrella, Nicole; Menzel, Annette
Long-term studies on urban phenology using network data are commonly limited by the small number of observation sites within city centres. Moreover, cities are often located on major rivers and consequently at lower altitudes than their rural surroundings. For these reasons, it is important (1) to go beyond a plain urban-rural comparison by taking the degree of urbanisation into account, and (2) to evaluate urbanisation and altitudinal effects simultaneously. Temporal phenological trends (1980-2009) for nine phenological spring events centred on the German cities of Frankfurt, Cologne and Munich were analysed. Trends of phenological onset dates were negative (i.e. earlier onset in phenology) for 96% of the 808 time series and significantly negative for 56% of the total number. Mean trends for the nine phenological events ranged between -0.23 days year(-1) for beech and -0.50 days year(-1) for hazel. The dependence of these trends and of mean dates on altitude and on the degree of urbanisation was explored. For mean dates, we demonstrated an earlier phenological onset at lower altitude and with a higher degree of urbanisation: altitude effects were highly significant and ranged between 1.34 days (100 m)(-1) (beech) and 4.27 days (100 m)(-1) (hazel). Coefficients for the log-transformed urban index were statistically significant for five events and varied greatly between events (coefficients from -1.74 for spruce to -5.08 for hazel). For trends in phenology, altitude was only significant for Norway maple, and no urban effects were significant. Hence, trends in phenology did not change significantly with higher altitudes or urbanised areas.
Liang, Liang; Schwartz, Mark D
Variation in the timing of plant phenology caused by phenotypic plasticity is a sensitive measure of how organisms respond to weather and climate variability. Although continental-scale gradients in climate and consequential patterns in plant phenology are well recognized, the contribution of underlying genotypic difference to the geography of phenology is less well understood. We hypothesize that different temperate plant genotypes require varying amount of heat energy for resuming annual growth and reproduction as a result of adaptation and other ecological and evolutionary processes along climatic gradients. In particular, at least for some species, the growing degree days (GDD) needed to trigger the same spring phenology events (e.g., budburst and flower bloom) may be less for individuals originated from colder climates than those from warmer climates. This variable intrinsic heat energy requirement in plants can be characterized by the term growth efficiency and is quantitatively reflected in the timing of phenophases-earlier timing indicates higher efficiency (i.e., less heat energy needed to trigger phenophase transitions) and vice versa compared to a standard reference (i.e., either a uniform climate or a uniform genotype). In this study, we tested our hypothesis by comparing variations of budburst and bloom timing of two widely documented plants from the USA National Phenology Network (i.e., red maple-Acer rubrum and forsythia-Forsythia spp.) with cloned indicator plants (lilac-Syringa x chinensis 'Red Rothomagensis') at multiple eastern US sites. Our results indicate that across the accumulated temperature gradient, the two non-clonal plants showed significantly more gradual changes than the cloned plants, manifested by earlier phenology in colder climates and later phenology in warmer climates relative to the baseline clone phenological response. This finding provides initial evidence supporting the growth efficiency hypothesis, and suggests more work is
Kovalskyy, V.; Henebry, G. M.
In recent years, fluctuations in food, feed, and fuel prices have led to shifts in the area of cropland dedicated to maize and soybean cultivation in the Northern Great Plains. We report here on a modeling experiment that compares three different simulated scenarios for actual evapotranspiration (ETa) from maize-soybean dominated areas in North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota during the 2000-2009 growing seasons. Scenario 1 relies on MODIS-derived crop maps to provide a baseline of subpixel crop proportions; Scenario 2 increases the proportion of maize by to 100 percent; Scenario 3 substitutes grassland for half the maize. We use a simple soil water balance model of ETa linked to an empirically derived crop specific phenology model also capable of producing seasonal trajectories of canopy attributes. This coupled model has been successfully deployed using flux tower records from multiple locations in the central US. Forcing the coupled model using data from NLDAS, we derive seasonal trajectories of daily NDVI and ETa as well as phenological transition points for maize, soybean, and grassland for each scenario. Seasonal differences in ETa among the three scenarios underscore the importance of how land use modulates land surface phenologies and, in turn, water and energy balances.
Full Text Available Remote sensing of high-latitude forests phenology is essential for understanding the global carbon cycle and the response of vegetation to climate change. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI has long been used to study boreal evergreen needleleaf forests (ENF and deciduous broadleaf forests. However, the NDVI-based growing season is generally reported to be longer than that based on gross primary production (GPP, which can be attributed to the difference between greenness and photosynthesis. Instead of introducing environmental factors such as land surface or air temperature like previous studies, this study attempts to make VI-based phenology more consistent with photosynthesis dynamics through applying a light use efficiency model. NDVI (MOD13C2 was used as a proxy for both fractional of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR and light use efficiency at seasonal time scale. Results show that VI-based phenology is improved towards tracking seasonal GPP changes more precisely after applying the light use efficiency model compared to raw NDVI or APAR, especially over ENF.
In the tropics, thermal stratification (during warm conditions) may contribute to a shallowing of the mixed layer above the nutricline and a reduction in the transfer of nutrients to the surface lit-layer, ultimately limiting phytoplankton growth. Using remotely sensed observations and modelled datasets, we study such linkages in the northern Red Sea (NRS) - a typical tropical marine ecosystem. We assess the interannual variability (1998-2015) of both phytoplankton biomass and phenological indices (timing of bloom initiation, duration and termination) in relation to regional warming. We demonstrate that warmer conditions in the NRS are associated with substantially weaker winter phytoplankton blooms, which initiate later, terminate earlier and are shorter in their overall duration (~ 4 weeks). These alterations are directly linked with the strength of atmospheric forcing (air-sea heat fluxes) and vertical stratification (mixed layer depth [MLD]). The interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is found to be a good indicator of phytoplankton abundance, but appears to be less important for predicting bloom timing. These findings suggest that future climate warming scenarios may have a two-fold impact on phytoplankton growth in tropical marine ecosystems: 1) a reduction in phytoplankton abundance and 2) alterations in the timing of seasonal phytoplankton blooms.
NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory has found a cosmic "ghost" lurking around a distant supermassive black hole. This is the first detection of such a high-energy apparition, and scientists think it is evidence of a huge eruption produced by the black hole. This discovery presents astronomers with a valuable opportunity to observe phenomena that occurred when the Universe was very young. The X-ray ghost, so-called because a diffuse X-ray source has remained after other radiation from the outburst has died away, is in the Chandra Deep Field-North, one of the deepest X-ray images ever taken. The source, a.k.a. HDF 130, is over 10 billion light years away and existed at a time 3 billion years after the Big Bang, when galaxies and black holes were forming at a high rate. "We'd seen this fuzzy object a few years ago, but didn't realize until now that we were seeing a ghost", said Andy Fabian of the Cambridge University in the United Kingdom. "It's not out there to haunt us, rather it's telling us something - in this case what was happening in this galaxy billions of year ago." Fabian and colleagues think the X-ray glow from HDF 130 is evidence for a powerful outburst from its central black hole in the form of jets of energetic particles traveling at almost the speed of light. When the eruption was ongoing, it produced prodigious amounts of radio and X-radiation, but after several million years, the radio signal faded from view as the electrons radiated away their energy. HDF 130 Chandra X-ray Image of HDF 130 However, less energetic electrons can still produce X-rays by interacting with the pervasive sea of photons remaining from the Big Bang - the cosmic background radiation. Collisions between these electrons and the background photons can impart enough energy to the photons to boost them into the X-ray energy band. This process produces an extended X-ray source that lasts for another 30 million years or so. "This ghost tells us about the black hole's eruption long after
Luvall, J. C.; Sprigg, W. A.; Nickovic, S.; Huete, A.; Budge, A.; Flowers, L.
The objective of the program is to assess the feasibility of combining a dust transport model with MODIS derived phenology to study pollen transport for integration with a public health decision support system. The use of pollen information has specifically be identified as a critical need by the New Mexico State Health department for inclusion in the Environmental Public Health Tracking (EPHT) program. Material and methods: Pollen can be transported great distances. Local observations of plan phenology may be consistent with the timing and source of pollen collected by pollen sampling instruments. The Dust REgional Atmospheric Model (DREAM) is an integrated modeling system designed to accurately describe the dust cycle in the atmosphere. The dust modules of the entire system incorporate the state of the art parameterization of all the major phases of the atmospheric dust life such as production, diffusion, advection, and removal. These modules also include effects of the particles size distribution on aerosol dispersion. The model was modified to use pollen sources instead of dust. Pollen release was estimated based on satellite-derived phenology of key plan species and vegetation communities. The MODIS surface reflectance product (MOD09) provided information on the start of the plant growing season, growth stage, and pollen release. The resulting deterministic model is useful for predicting and simulating pollen emission and downwind concentration to study details of phenology and meteorology and their dependencies. The proposed linkage in this project provided critical information on the location timing and modeled transport of pollen directly to the EPHT> This information is useful to support the centers for disease control and prevention (CDC)'s National EPHT and the state of New Mexico environmental public health decision support for asthma and allergies alerts.
Templ, Barbara; Templ, Matthias; Filzmoser, Peter; Lehoczky, Annamária; Bakšienè, Eugenija; Fleck, Stefan; Gregow, Hilppa; Hodzic, Sabina; Kalvane, Gunta; Kubin, Eero; Palm, Vello; Romanovskaja, Danuta; Vucˇ´, Višnja; žust, Ana; Czúcz, Bálint
Long-term changes of plant phenological phases determined by complex interactions of environmental factors are in the focus of recent climate impact research. There is a lack of studies on the comparison of biogeographical regions in Europe in terms of plant responses to climate. We examined the flowering phenology of plant species to identify the spatio-temporal patterns in their responses to environmental variables over the period 1970-2010. Data were collected from 12 countries along a 3000-km-long, North-South transect from northern to eastern Central Europe. Biogeographical regions of Europe were covered from Finland to Macedonia. Robust statistical methods were used to determine the most influential factors driving the changes of the beginning of flowering dates. Significant species-specific advancements in plant flowering onsets within the Continental (3 to 8.3 days), Alpine (2 to 3.8 days) and by highest magnitude in the Boreal biogeographical regions (2.2 to 9.6 days per decades) were found, while less pronounced responses were detected in the Pannonian and Mediterranean regions. While most of the other studies only use mean temperature in the models, we show that also the distribution of minimum and maximum temperatures are reasonable to consider as explanatory variable. Not just local (e.g. temperature) but large scale (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation) climate factors, as well as altitude and latitude play significant role in the timing of flowering across biogeographical regions of Europe. Our analysis gave evidences that species show a delay in the timing of flowering with an increase in latitude (between the geographical coordinates of 40.9 and 67.9), and an advance with changing climate. The woody species (black locust and small-leaved lime) showed stronger advancements in their timing of flowering than the herbaceous species (dandelion, lily of the valley). In later decades (1991-2010), more pronounced phenological change was detected than during
Templ, Barbara; Templ, Matthias; Filzmoser, Peter; Lehoczky, Annamária; Bakšienè, Eugenija; Fleck, Stefan; Gregow, Hilppa; Hodzic, Sabina; Kalvane, Gunta; Kubin, Eero; Palm, Vello; Romanovskaja, Danuta; Vucˇetic, Višnja; Žust, Ana; Czúcz, Bálint
Long-term changes of plant phenological phases determined by complex interactions of environmental factors are in the focus of recent climate impact research. There is a lack of studies on the comparison of biogeographical regions in Europe in terms of plant responses to climate. We examined the flowering phenology of plant species to identify the spatio-temporal patterns in their responses to environmental variables over the period 1970-2010. Data were collected from 12 countries along a 3000-km-long, North-South transect from northern to eastern Central Europe.Biogeographical regions of Europe were covered from Finland to Macedonia. Robust statistical methods were used to determine the most influential factors driving the changes of the beginning of flowering dates. Significant species-specific advancements in plant flowering onsets within the Continental (3 to 8.3 days), Alpine (2 to 3.8 days) and by highest magnitude in the Boreal biogeographical regions (2.2 to 9.6 days per decades) were found, while less pronounced responses were detected in the Pannonian and Mediterranean regions. While most of the other studies only use mean temperature in the models, we show that also the distribution of minimum and maximum temperatures are reasonable to consider as explanatory variable. Not just local (e.g. temperature) but large scale (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation) climate factors, as well as altitude and latitude play significant role in the timing of flowering across biogeographical regions of Europe. Our analysis gave evidences that species show a delay in the timing of flowering with an increase in latitude (between the geographical coordinates of 40.9 and 67.9), and an advance with changing climate. The woody species (black locust and small-leaved lime) showed stronger advancements in their timing of flowering than the herbaceous species (dandelion, lily of the valley). In later decades (1991-2010), more pronounced phenological change was detected than during the
Spruce, Joseph P.; Hargrove, William; Norman, Steve; Gasser, Jerry; Smoot, James; Kuper, Philip D,
This presentation discusses MODIS vegetation phenology products used in the ForWarn Early Warning System (EWS) tool for near real time regional forest disturbance detection and surveillance at regional to national scales. The ForWarn EWS is being developed by the USDA Forest Service NASA, ORNL, and USGS to aid federal and state forest health management activities. ForWarn employs multiple historical land surface phenology products that are derived from MODIS MOD13 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data. The latter is temporally processed into phenology products with the Time Series Product Tool (TSPT) and the Phenological Parameter Estimation Tool (PPET) software produced at NASA Stennis Space Center. TSPT is used to effectively noise reduce, fuse, and void interpolate MODIS NDVI data. PPET employs TSPT-processed NDVI time series data as an input, outputting multiple vegetation phenology products at a 232 meter resolution for 2000 to 2011, including NDVI magnitude and day of year products for seven key points along the growing season (peak of growing season and the minima, 20%, and 80% of the peak NDVI for both the left and right side of growing season), cumulative NDVI integral products for the most active part of the growing season and sequentially across the growing season at 8 day intervals, and maximum value NDVI products composited at 24 day intervals in which each product date has 8 days of overlap between the previous and following product dates. MODIS NDVI phenology products are also used to compute nationwide NRT forest change products refreshed every 8 days. These include percent change in forest NDVI products that compare the current NDVI from USGS eMODIS products to historical MODIS MOD13 NDVI. For each date, three forest change products are produced using three different maximum value NDVI baselines (from the previous year, three previous years, and all previous years). All change products are output with a rainbow color table in which
Keogan, Katharine; Daunt, Francis; Wanless, Sarah
Reproductive timing in many taxa plays a key role in determining breeding productivity 1 , and is often sensitive to climatic conditions 2 . Current climate change may alter the timing of breeding at different rates across trophic levels, potentially resulting in temporal mismatch between...... the resource requirements of predators and their prey 3 . This is of particular concern for higher-trophic-level organisms, whose longer generation times confer a lower rate of evolutionary rescue than primary producers or consumers 4 . However, the disconnection between studies of ecological change in marine...... systems makes it difficult to detect general changes in the timing of reproduction 5 . Here, we use a comprehensive meta-analysis of 209 phenological time series from 145 breeding populations to show that, on average, seabird populations worldwide have not adjusted their breeding seasons over time (−0...
Rosemartin, Alyssa H.; Denny, Ellen G.; Weltzin, Jake F.; Marsh, R. Lee; Wilson, Bruce E.; Mehdipoor, Hamed; Zurita-Milla, Raul; Schwartz, Mark D.
The dataset is comprised of leafing and flowering data collected across the continental United States from 1956 to 2014 for purple common lilac (Syringa vulgaris), a cloned lilac cultivar (S. x chinensis ‘Red Rothomagensis’) and two cloned honeysuckle cultivars (Lonicera tatarica ‘Arnold Red’ and L. korolkowii ‘Zabeli’). Applications of this observational dataset range from detecting regional weather patterns to understanding the impacts of global climate change on the onset of spring at the national scale. While minor changes in methods have occurred over time, and some documentation is lacking, outlier analyses identified fewer than 3% of records as unusually early or late. Lilac and honeysuckle phenology data have proven robust in both model development and climatic research.
Full Text Available Bufo viridis Laurenti, 1768 is a common species that inhabits a wide variety of habitats. The different climates characterising its broad range lead to a high degree of variability in its seasonal activity and reproductive cycle. This paper reports some observations carried out on the breeding phenology of this species over a two year period in Mediterranean temporary ponds in Sicily. The reproductive period of Sicilian green toads extends into the autumn months, making it longer than that of other Italian populations. This behaviour seems due to the impact of xeric environmental conditions on the seasonal activity of the studied populations. The present study confirms that B. viridis is an opportunistic breeder with a wide margin of variability in annual reproductive cycle patterns, as would be expected of an ecologically variable species. The duration of the reproductive season varied between populations in the same year and between different years for the same population.
Rosemartin, Alyssa H; Denny, Ellen G; Weltzin, Jake F; Lee Marsh, R; Wilson, Bruce E; Mehdipoor, Hamed; Zurita-Milla, Raul; Schwartz, Mark D
The dataset is comprised of leafing and flowering data collected across the continental United States from 1956 to 2014 for purple common lilac (Syringa vulgaris), a cloned lilac cultivar (S. x chinensis 'Red Rothomagensis') and two cloned honeysuckle cultivars (Lonicera tatarica 'Arnold Red' and L. korolkowii 'Zabeli'). Applications of this observational dataset range from detecting regional weather patterns to understanding the impacts of global climate change on the onset of spring at the national scale. While minor changes in methods have occurred over time, and some documentation is lacking, outlier analyses identified fewer than 3% of records as unusually early or late. Lilac and honeysuckle phenology data have proven robust in both model development and climatic research.
Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.
Miller, B. W.; Davíd-Chavez, D. M.; Elevitch, C.; Hamilton, A.; Hatfield, S. C.; Jones, K. D.; Rabin, R.; Rosemartin, A.; Souza, M. K.; Sparrow, E.
The Indigenous Phenology Network (IPN) is a grassroots organization whose participants are interested in understanding changes to seasonality and timing of life cycle events, and forecasting impacts to lands and species of importance to native peoples. The group focuses on building relationships, ensuring benefit to indigenous communities, and integrating indigenous and western knowledge systems. The IPN's work is guided by the Relational Doctrine, a set of principles founded on the notion that all things are connected. This multimedia presentation and dialogue will bring together IPN members and their experiences in diverse communities and landscapes facing impacts from a changing climate and extreme weather events. Impacts on water supply, vegetation, wildlife, and living conditions, and ideas for minimizing and responding to the projected impacts of continued change will be discussed in the context of multi-generational, place-based traditional knowledge and community resilience. Scalable, community-based gardens, for example, provide a sustainable source of traditional, locally grown food, most valuable in times of disaster when supplies from the outside world are unavailable. Following the concept of Victory Gardens, the model of small-scale agroforestry (VICTree Gardens - Virtually Interconnected Community Tree Gardens), being implemented in Hawaii, has the potential to provide a diverse diet of food grown in very limited space. Gardens build resilience by connecting people with each other, with local food, and with nature. We envision community-based projects which will apply local, multi-generational knowledge to adapt the gardens to changing environments. Going forward, direct observation of garden conditions can be combined with satellite and ground-based measurements of environmental conditions, such as soil moisture, soil and air temperature, precipitation, and phenology, to further assess and manage these gardens in the context of the surrounding
Full Text Available in Southern African savannah and ii) if multiple-images acquired at key points of the typical phenological development of savannahs (peak productivity, transition to senescence) improve on tree species classifications. We first assessed the discriminatory...
Koster, Randal Dean; Walker, Gregory K.; Collatz, George J.; Thornton, Peter E.
Long-term, global offline (land-only) simulations with a dynamic vegetation phenology model are used to examine the control of hydroclimate over vegetation-related quantities. First, with a control simulation, the model is shown to capture successfully (though with some bias) key observed relationships between hydroclimate and the spatial and temporal variations of phenological expression. In subsequent simulations, the model shows that: (i) the global spatial variation of seasonal phenological maxima is controlled mostly by hydroclimate, irrespective of distributions in vegetation type, (ii) the occurrence of high interannual moisture-related phenological variability in grassland areas is determined by hydroclimate rather than by the specific properties of grassland, and (iii) hydroclimatic means and variability have a corresponding impact on the spatial and temporal distributions of gross primary productivity (GPP).
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The NASA Making Earth System Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) global datasets were created using...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The NASA Making Earth System Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) global datasets were created using...
Wu, Chaoyang; Chen, Xi Jing; Black, T. Andrew
period, the spring lag (time interval between the onset of growing season and carbon uptake period) and the autumn lag (time interval between the end of the carbon uptake period and the growing season). Meteorological variables, including global shortwave radiation, air temperature, soil temperature......To investigate the importance of autumn phenology in controlling interannual variability of forest net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and to derive new phenological metrics to explain the interannual variability of NEP. North America and Europe. Flux data from nine deciduous broadleaf forests (DBF......, soil water content and precipitation, were also used to explain the phenological variations. We found that interannual variability of NEP can be largely explained by autumn phenology, i.e. the autumn lag. While variation in neither annual gross primary productivity (GPP) nor in annual ecosystem...
Amponsah, Isaac G.; Lieffers, Victor J.; Comeau, Philip G.; Landhaeusser, Simon M.
This study measured the amount of uptake of labeled nitrogen ( 15 N) of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. var. latifolia Engelm) seedlings, at three different phenological stages, in a growth chamber experiment. Thirty days after 15 N application, the amount of 15 N recovered in seedlings as a percentage of the total 15 N fertilizer applied was 4% in early spring, 43% in summer and 33% in autumn. The total 15 N recovered in the plant-pot system ranged from 80 to 96%, and is higher than reported in other studies. Total 15 N recovered from the pot compartment alone ranged from 48 to 95%, suggesting that substantial pools of N remain in the soil. Results suggest that low 15 N uptake in the spring was associated with limited development of new root as a result of low spring soil temperatures. The lack of unsuberized roots in spring could be a key factor decreasing the effectiveness of early spring fertilization in the boreal forest
Youngflesh, Casey; Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Hinke, Jefferson T; DuBois, Lauren; St Leger, Judy; Trivelpiece, Wayne Z; Trivelpiece, Susan G; Lynch, Heather J
Phenological changes have been observed in a variety of systems over the past century. There is concern that, as a consequence, ecological interactions are becoming increasingly mismatched in time, with negative consequences for ecological function. Significant spatial heterogeneity (inter-site) and temporal variability (inter-annual) can make it difficult to separate intrinsic, extrinsic and stochastic drivers of phenological variability. The goal of this study was to understand the timing and variability in breeding phenology of Adélie penguins under fixed environmental conditions and to use those data to identify a "null model" appropriate for disentangling the sources of variation in wild populations. Data on clutch initiation were collected from both wild and captive populations of Adélie penguins. Clutch initiation in the captive population was modelled as a function of year, individual and age to better understand phenological patterns observed in the wild population. Captive populations displayed as much inter-annual variability in breeding phenology as wild populations, suggesting that variability in breeding phenology is the norm and thus may be an unreliable indicator of environmental forcing. The distribution of clutch initiation dates was found to be moderately asymmetric (right skewed) both in the wild and in captivity, consistent with the pattern expected under social facilitation. The role of stochasticity in phenological processes has heretofore been largely ignored. However, these results suggest that inter-annual variability in breeding phenology can arise independent of any environmental or demographic drivers and that synchronous breeding can enhance inherent stochasticity. This complicates efforts to relate phenological variation to environmental variability in the wild. Accordingly, we must be careful to consider random forcing in phenological processes, lest we fit models to data dominated by random noise. This is particularly true for
Fisher, Jeremy Isaac
Important systematic shifts in ecosystem function are often masked by natural variability. The rich legacy of over two decades of continuous satellite observations provides an important database for distinguishing climatological and anthropogenic ecosystem changes. Examples from semi-arid Sudanian West Africa and New England (USA) illustrate the response of vegetation to climate and land-use. In Burkina Faso, West Africa, pastoral and agricultural practices compete for land area, while degradation may follow intensification. The Nouhao Valley is a natural experiment in which pastoral and agricultural land uses were allocated separate, coherent reserves. Trajectories of annual net primary productivity were derived from 18 years of coarse-grain (AVHRR) satellite data. Trends suggested that pastoral lands had responded rigorously to increasing rainfall after the 1980's droughts. A detailed analysis at Landsat resolution (30m) indicated that the increased vegetative cover was concentrated in the river basins of the pastoral region, implying a riparian wood expansion. In comparison, riparian cover was reduced in agricultural regions. We suggest that broad-scale patterns of increasing semi-arid West African greenness may be indicative of climate variability, whereas local losses may be anthropogenic in nature. The contiguous deciduous forests, ocean proximity, topography, and dense urban developments of New England provide an ideal landscape to examine influences of climate variability and the impact of urban development vegetation response. Spatial and temporal patterns of interannual climate variability were examined via green leaf phenology. Phenology, or seasonal growth and senescence, is driven by deficits of light, temperature, and water. In temperate environments, phenology variability is driven by interannual temperature and precipitation shifts. Average and interannual phenology analyses across southern New England were conducted at resolutions of 30m (Landsat
The work deals with the assessment of the impact of water balance on the timing of phenological phases at two locations (Hips and Bukovina), on the selected tree species (hazel (Corylus avellana L.), hornbeam (Carpinus betulus L.), sessile oak (Quercus petraea, Liebl.)). Phenological observations have been held since 2007, and together with measurements of meteorological parameters allow us to evaluate the microclimate in the stands in detail. (authors)
Elmendorf, Sarah C; Jones, Katherine D; Cook, Benjamin I.; Diez, Jeffrey M.; Enquist, Carolyn A.F.; Hufft, Rebecca A.; Jones, Matthew O.; Mazer, Susan J.; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.; Moore, David J. P.; Schwartz, Mark D.; Weltzin, Jake F.
Phenology is an integrative science that comprises the study of recurring biological activities or events. In an era of rapidly changing climate, the relationship between the timing of those events and environmental cues such as temperature, snowmelt, water availability or day length are of particular interest. This article provides an overview of the plant phenology sampling which will be conducted by the U.S. National Ecological Observatory Network NEON, the resulting data, and the rationale behind the design. Trained technicians will conduct regular in situ observations of plant phenology at all terrestrial NEON sites for the 30-year life of the observatory. Standardized and coordinated data across the network of sites can be used to quantify the direction and magnitude of the relationships between phenology and environmental forcings, as well as the degree to which these relationships vary among sites, among species, among phenophases, and through time. Vegetation at NEON sites will also be monitored with tower-based cameras, satellite remote sensing and annual high-resolution airborne remote sensing. Ground-based measurements can be used to calibrate and improve satellite-derived phenometrics. NEON’s phenology monitoring design is complementary to existing phenology research efforts and citizen science initiatives throughout the world and will produce interoperable data. By collocating plant phenology observations with a suite of additional meteorological, biophysical and ecological measurements (e.g., climate, carbon flux, plant productivity, population dynamics of consumers) at 47 terrestrial sites, the NEON design will enable continentalscale inference about the status, trends, causes and ecological consequences of phenological change.
Elmendorf, Sarah C.; Jones, Katherine D.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Diez, Jeffrey M.; Enquist, Carolyn A. F.; Hufft, Rebecca A.; Jones, Matthew O.; Mazer, Susan J.; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.; Moore, David J. P.;
Phenology is an integrative science that comprises the study of recurring biological activities or events. In an era of rapidly changing climate, the relationship between the timing of those events and environmental cues such as temperature, snowmelt, water availability, or day length are of particular interest. This article provides an overview of the observer-based plant phenology sampling conducted by the U.S. National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), the resulting data, and the rationale behind the design. Trained technicians will conduct regular in situ observations of plant phenology at all terrestrial NEON sites for the 30-yr life of the observatory. Standardized and coordinated data across the network of sites can be used to quantify the direction and magnitude of the relationships between phenology and environmental forcings, as well as the degree to which these relationships vary among sites, among species, among phenophases, and through time. Vegetation at NEON sites will also be monitored with tower-based cameras, satellite remote sensing, and annual high-resolution airborne remote sensing. Ground-based measurements can be used to calibrate and improve satellite-derived phenometrics. NEON's phenology monitoring design is complementary to existing phenology research efforts and citizen science initiatives throughout the world and will produce interoperable data. By collocating plant phenology observations with a suite of additional meteorological, biophysical, and ecological measurements (e.g., climate, carbon flux, plant productivity, population dynamics of consumers) at 47 terrestrial sites, the NEON design will enable continental-scale inference about the status, trends, causes, and ecological consequences of phenological change.
Li, Xuecao; Zhou, Yuyu; Asrar, Ghassem R; Mao, Jiafu; Li, Xiaoma; Li, Wenyu
The influence of urbanization on vegetation phenology is gaining considerable attention due to its implications for human health, cycling of carbon and other nutrients in Earth system. In this study, we examined the relationship between change in vegetation phenology and urban size, an indicator of urbanization, for the conterminous United States. We studied more than 4500 urban clusters of varying size to determine the impact of urbanization on plant phenology, with the aids of remotely sensed observations since 2003-2012. We found that phenology cycle (changes in vegetation greenness) in urban areas starts earlier (start of season, SOS) and ends later (end of season, EOS), resulting in a longer growing season length (GSL), when compared to the respective surrounding urban areas. The average difference of GSL between urban and rural areas over all vegetation types, considered in this study, is about 9 days. Also, the extended GSL in urban area is consistent among different climate zones in the United States, whereas their magnitudes are varying across regions. We found that a tenfold increase in urban size could result in an earlier SOS of about 1.3 days and a later EOS of around 2.4 days. As a result, the GSL could be extended by approximately 3.6 days with a range of 1.6-6.5 days for 25th ~ 75th quantiles, with a median value of about 2.1 days. For different vegetation types, the phenology response to urbanization, as defined by GSL, ranges from 1 to 4 days. The quantitative relationship between phenology and urbanization is of great use for developing improved models of vegetation phenology dynamics under future urbanization, and for developing change indicators to assess the impacts of urbanization on vegetation phenology. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Li, Xuecao [Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames IA 50011 USA; Zhou, Yuyu [Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames IA 50011 USA; Asrar, Ghassem R. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park MD 20740 USA; Mao, Jiafu [Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge TN 37831 USA; Li, Xiaoma [Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames IA 50011 USA; Li, Wenyu [Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 China
The influence of urbanization on vegetation phenology is gaining considerable attention due to its implications for human health, cycling of carbon and other nutrients in Earth system. In this study, we examined the relationship between change in vegetation phenology and urban size, an indicator of urbanization, for the conterminous United States. We studied more than 4500 urban clusters of varying size to determine the impact of urbanization on plant phenology, with the aids of remotely sensed observations since 2003–2012. We found that phenology cycle (changes in vegetation greenness) in rural areas starts earlier (start of season, SOS) and ends later (end of season, EOS), resulting in a longer growing season length (GSL), when compared to the respective surrounding urban areas. The average difference of GSL between urban and rural areas over all vegetation types, considered in this study, is about 9 days. Also, the extended GSL in urban area is consistent among different climate zones in the United States, whereas their magnitudes are varying across regions. We found that a tenfold increase in urban size could result in an earlier SOS of about 1.3 days and a later EOS of around 2.4 days. As a result, the GSL could be extended by approximately 3.6 days with a range of 1.6–6.5 days for 25th ~ 75th quantiles, with a median value of about 2.1 days. For different vegetation types, the phenology response to urbanization, as defined by GSL, ranges from 1 to 4 days. The quantitative relationship between phenology and urbanization is of great use for developing improved models of vegetation phenology dynamics under future urbanization, and for developing change indicators to assess the impacts of urbanization on vegetation phenology.
Li, Xuecao [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States); Zhou, Yuyu [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States); Asrar, Ghassem R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Mao, Jiafu [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Li, Xiaoma [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States); Li, Wenyu [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)
The influence of urbanization on vegetation phenology is gaining considerable attention due to its implications for human health, cycling of carbon and other nutrients in Earth system. In this study, we examined the relationship between change in vegetation phenology and urban size, an indicator of urbanization, for the conterminous United States. We studied more than 4500 urban clusters of varying size to determine the impact of urbanization on plant phenology, with the aids of remotely sensed observations since 2003–2012. We found that phenology cycle (changes in vegetation greenness) in urban areas starts earlier (start of season, SOS) and ends later (end of season, EOS), resulting in a longer growing season length (GSL), when compared to the respective surrounding urban areas. The average difference of GSL between urban and rural areas over all vegetation types, considered in this study, is about 9 days.Also, the extended GSL in urban area is consistent among different climate zones in the United States, whereas their magnitudes are varying across regions. We found that a tenfold increase in urban size could result in an earlier SOS of about 1.3 days and a later EOS of around 2.4 days. As a result, the GSL could be extended by approximately 3.6 days with a range of 1.6–6.5 days for 25th ~ 75th quantiles, with a median value of about 2.1 days. For different vegetation types, the phenology response to urbanization, as defined by GSL, ranges from 1 to 4 days. In conclusion, the quantitative relationship between phenology and urbanization is of great use for developing improved models of vegetation phenology dynamics under future urbanization, and for developing change indicators to assess the impacts of urbanization on vegetation phenology.
Anderson, Thomas L; Rowland, Freya E; Semlitsch, Raymond D
Variation in the timing of breeding (i.e., phenological variation) can affect species interactions and community structure, in part by shifting body size differences between species. Body size differences can be further altered by density-dependent competition, though synergistic effects of density and phenology on species interactions are rarely evaluated. We tested how field-realistic variation in phenology and density affected ringed salamander (Ambystoma annulatum) predation on spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum), and whether these altered salamander dynamics resulted in trophic cascades. In outdoor mesocosms, we experimentally manipulated ringed salamander density (low/high) and breeding phenology (early/late) of both species. Ringed salamander body size at metamorphosis, development, and growth were reduced at higher densities, while delayed phenology increased hatchling size and larval development, but reduced relative growth rates. Survival of ringed salamanders was affected by the interactive effects of phenology and density. In contrast, spotted salamander growth, size at metamorphosis, and survival, as well as the biomass of lower trophic levels, were negatively affected primarily by ringed salamander density. In an additional mesocosm experiment, we isolated whether ringed salamanders could deplete shared resources prior to their interactions with spotted salamanders, but instead found direct interactions (e.g., predation) were the more likely mechanism by which ringed salamanders limited spotted salamanders. Overall, our results indicate the effects of phenological variability on fitness-related traits can be modified or superseded by differences in density dependence. Identifying such context dependencies will lead to greater insight into when phenological variation will likely alter species interactions.
LMMs was revealed as an appropriate technique for phenology behaviour analysis displaying both fixed and random interactions. Cultivars grown in the study province are adapted to climate with a synchronized response, although climate change is affecting theolive reproductive cycle in southern Spain; therefore, the timing of pollen release, with subsequent consequences on allergic population as phenological changes, could have impacts on flowering period and pollen production. Further investigation is required of the implications for crop production in Mediterranean ecosystems.
Thackeray, Stephen J; Henrys, Peter A; Feuchtmayr, Heidrun; Jones, Ian D; Maberly, Stephen C; Winfield, Ian J
Phenological changes have been observed globally for marine, freshwater and terrestrial species, and are an important element of the global biological 'fingerprint' of climate change. Differences in rates of change could desynchronize seasonal species interactions within a food web, threatening ecosystem functioning. Quantification of this risk is hampered by the rarity of long-term data for multiple interacting species from the same ecosystem and by the diversity of possible phenological metrics, which vary in their ecological relevance to food web interactions. We compare phenological change for phytoplankton (chlorophyll a), zooplankton (Daphnia) and fish (perch, Perca fluviatilis) in two basins of Windermere over 40 years and determine whether change has differed among trophic levels, while explicitly accounting for among-metric differences in rates of change. Though rates of change differed markedly among the nine metrics used, seasonal events shifted earlier for all metrics and trophic levels: zooplankton advanced most, and fish least, rapidly. Evidence of altered synchrony was found in both lake basins, when combining information from all phenological metrics. However, comparisons based on single metrics did not consistently detect this signal. A multimetric approach showed that across trophic levels, earlier phenological events have been associated with increasing water temperature. However, for phytoplankton and zooplankton, phenological change was also associated with changes in resource availability. Lower silicate, and higher phosphorus, concentrations were associated with earlier phytoplankton growth, and earlier phytoplankton growth was associated with earlier zooplankton growth. The developing trophic mismatch detected between the dominant fish species in Windermere and important zooplankton food resources may ultimately affect fish survival and portend significant impacts upon ecosystem functioning. We advocate that future studies on phenological
Souza, Heloisa B.; Baio, Fabio H. R.; Neves, Danilo C.
ABSTRACT: The investment in precision agriculture technologies has been growing as well the investment in vegetation index sensors with different types of data collection. This study aimed to evaluate the NDVI potential use obtained from passive and active multispectral sensors as phenological parameters indicator of cotton growth. The experiment was conducted in cultivated cotton fields during the harvest seasons of 2013/14 and 2014/15. The phenological variables analyzed in the field, were ...
John D Chan
Full Text Available Schistosomiasis is a parasitic flatworm disease that infects 200 million people worldwide. The drug praziquantel (PZQ is the mainstay therapy but the target of this drug remains ambiguous. While PZQ paralyses and kills parasitic schistosomes, in free-living planarians PZQ caused an unusual axis duplication during regeneration to yield two-headed animals. Here, we show that PZQ activation of a neuronal Ca²⁺ channel modulates opposing dopaminergic and serotonergic pathways to regulate 'head' structure formation. Surprisingly, compounds with efficacy for either bioaminergic network in planarians also displayed antischistosomal activity, and reciprocally, agents first identified as antischistocidal compounds caused bipolar regeneration in the planarian bioassay. These divergent outcomes (death versus axis duplication result from the same Ca²⁺ entry mechanism, and comprise unexpected Ca²⁺ phenologs with meaningful predictive value. Surprisingly, basic research into axis patterning mechanisms provides an unexpected route for discovering novel antischistosomal agents.
Full Text Available In response to climate change, earlier phenological events have been reported for a large range of taxa such that phenological shifts are considered as one of the fingerprints of the effect of climate change on organisms. Evidence further suggests that changes in the timing of phenological events might decouple biotic interactions due to differential phenological adjustment among interacting species, ultimately leading to population declines. Nonetheless, few studies have investigated how climate-driven changes in the timing of phenological events influence population abundances. In this study, we investigated how two environmental variables known to influence the migration timing of freshwater fish (i.e. water discharge and temperature directly or indirectly influenced abundances of 21 fish species using daily time series gathered at four sites located in France over a period spanning from 9 to 21 years. We found no evidence for long-term trends in migration timing or fish abundances over time. Using piecewise structural equation models, we demonstrate that inter-annual variations in abundances were driven by inter-annual variations in temperature through variations in migration timing. Overall, our results suggest that climate change may concomitantly influence different biological aspects (e.g. phenology, abundance of fish species. We argue that considering different responses to climate change is paramount if we are to improve our understanding of how organisms and populations are influenced by climate change in order to set-up efficient conservation strategies.
Templ, Barbara; Koch, Elisabeth; Bolmgren, Kjell; Ungersböck, Markus; Paul, Anita; Scheifinger, Helfried; Rutishauser, This; Busto, Montserrat; Chmielewski, Frank-M.; Hájková, Lenka; Hodzić, Sabina; Kaspar, Frank; Pietragalla, Barbara; Romero-Fresneda, Ramiro; Tolvanen, Anne; Vučetič, Višnja; Zimmermann, Kirsten; Zust, Ana
The Pan European Phenology (PEP) project is a European infrastructure to promote and facilitate phenological research, education, and environmental monitoring. The main objective is to maintain and develop a Pan European Phenological database (PEP725) with an open, unrestricted data access for science and education. PEP725 is the successor of the database developed through the COST action 725 "Establishing a European phenological data platform for climatological applications" working as a single access point for European-wide plant phenological data. So far, 32 European meteorological services and project partners from across Europe have joined and supplied data collected by volunteers from 1868 to the present for the PEP725 database. Most of the partners actively provide data on a regular basis. The database presently holds almost 12 million records, about 46 growing stages and 265 plant species (including cultivars), and can be accessed via http://www.pep725.eu/. Users of the PEP725 database have studied a diversity of topics ranging from climate change impact, plant physiological question, phenological modeling, and remote sensing of vegetation to ecosystem productivity.
Vincze, E.; Hunkár, M.; Dunkel, Z.
Phenological observations in Hungary started in 1871. The observation system collapsed and revived time by time. The aim of the observations as well as the locations, the methods and observed plants have been changed many times, therefore data series for a given plant species derived from the same place are rare. If we want to study the responses of biosphere to climate variability we need long time data series from the same places, especially phenological data of native plants. Phenological observations organized by the Hungarian Meteorological Service between 1983- 1999 contain valuable data for lilac (Syringa vulgaris) and elderberry (Sambucus nigra). Those perennial native plants are good indicators of spring warming therefore it is worth to study their phenological development concerning to climate variability. Eight locations in Hungary were selected where the site of the observations remaind the same year by year. Observed phenological phases were: Sprouting of leaves (SL, BBCH:11); Begin of Flowers (BF, BBCH:61); Fall of leaves (FO, BBCH:95). Spatial and temporal trends and variability of phenophases will be presented. The effect of meteorological conditions is studied to build up phenological model controlled by the temperature. Growing degree days above the base temperature was involved together with the duration and severeness of the chilling period. The study is supported by the National Scientific Foundation (OTKA-81979).
Templ, Barbara; Koch, Elisabeth; Bolmgren, Kjell; Ungersböck, Markus; Paul, Anita; Scheifinger, Helfried; Rutishauser, This; Busto, Montserrat; Chmielewski, Frank-M; Hájková, Lenka; Hodzić, Sabina; Kaspar, Frank; Pietragalla, Barbara; Romero-Fresneda, Ramiro; Tolvanen, Anne; Vučetič, Višnja; Zimmermann, Kirsten; Zust, Ana
The Pan European Phenology (PEP) project is a European infrastructure to promote and facilitate phenological research, education, and environmental monitoring. The main objective is to maintain and develop a Pan European Phenological database (PEP725) with an open, unrestricted data access for science and education. PEP725 is the successor of the database developed through the COST action 725 "Establishing a European phenological data platform for climatological applications" working as a single access point for European-wide plant phenological data. So far, 32 European meteorological services and project partners from across Europe have joined and supplied data collected by volunteers from 1868 to the present for the PEP725 database. Most of the partners actively provide data on a regular basis. The database presently holds almost 12 million records, about 46 growing stages and 265 plant species (including cultivars), and can be accessed via http://www.pep725.eu/ . Users of the PEP725 database have studied a diversity of topics ranging from climate change impact, plant physiological question, phenological modeling, and remote sensing of vegetation to ecosystem productivity.
Busto, Montserrat; Cunillera, Jordi; de Yzaguirre, Xavi; Borrell, Josep
The interruption of important phenological series and the progressive disappearance of phenological observations in Catalonia led the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) to design and impulse a new phenological network promoted by the Climate Change Unit of this Met Service. The "Fenocat" network was born in March 2013, and currently has around fifty observers distributed throughout Catalonia that observe plants, birds and butterflies. We are providing data from different plant phenophases to PEP725 database. Besides this new phenological network (Fenocat), one of the aims of SMC is to rescue and preserve historical data from different observation points in Catalonia. We show in this poster the example of rescue and preservation of phenological data from la Serra d'Almos (in Tivissa, near Tarragona, Catalonia, NE Iberian Peninsula), an observation series that began in 1973. After digitalization process and quality control tasks, we show preliminary results of this phenological series, and we compare them with those of similar European series. We show the evolution trends for different observed species, such as almond tree (Prunus dulcis), hazel (Corylus avellana), plum (Prunus domestica), olive tree (Olea europea), apple tree (Malus domestica) or vineyard (Vitis vinifera).
Boelman, Natalie T; Krause, Jesse S; Sweet, Shannan K; Chmura, Helen E; Perez, Jonathan H; Gough, Laura; Wingfield, John C
Arctic regions are warming rapidly, with extreme weather events increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity just as in other regions. Many studies have focused on how shifting seasonality in environmental conditions affects vegetation phenology, while far fewer have examined how the breeding phenology of arctic fauna responds. We studied two species of long-distance migratory songbirds, Lapland longspurs, Calcarius lapponicus, and white-crowned sparrows, Zonotrichia leucophrys gambelii, across five consecutive breeding seasons in northern Alaskan tundra. We aimed to understand how spring environmental conditions affected breeding cycle phenology, including the timing of arrival on breeding grounds, territory establishment, and clutch initiation. Spring temperatures, precipitation, and snow-free dates differed significantly among years, with 2013 characterized by unusually late snow cover. In response, we found a significant delay in breeding-cycle phenology for both study species in 2013 relative to other study years: the first bird observed was delayed by 6-10 days, with mean arrival by 3-6 days, territory establishment by 6-13 days, and clutch initiation by 4-10 days. Further, snow cover, temperature, and precipitation during the territory establishment period were important predictors of clutch initiation dates for both species. These findings suggest that Arctic-breeding passerine communities may have the flexibility required to adjust breeding phenology in response to the increasingly extreme and unpredictable environmental conditions-although future generations may encounter conditions that exceed their current range of phenological flexibility.
Thiéry, D; Monceau, K; Moreau, J
The phenology of insect emergence affects reproductive success and is especially critical in short-lived species. An increasing number of studies have documented the effects of thermal and other climatic variations and of unpredictable habitats on the timing of adult insect emergence within and between populations and years. Numerous interacting factors may affect the phenology of adult emergence. Host-plant quality and availability is a key factor that has been largely neglected in studies of the phenology of phytophagous insects. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of host plant characteristics on the rate of larval growth and the pattern of emergence in a wild population of Lobesia botrana (European grapevine moth), a significant pest in European vineyards. The phenology of emergence differed significantly among the six tested varieties of grapes. The percentage of bunches harboring pupae was similar among the different grape varieties, and the total number of pupae collected was similar to the number of emerging adults per bunch. Among the six varieties of grapes, 0-25 pupae were produced on each bunch. Each of the grape varieties had a single wave of emergence, in which males emerged before females, but their emergence phenology differed significantly in Chardonnay, Chasselas, and Pinot grapes. Both genders had extended durations of emergence in Merlot grapes. Together, the present results show that the characteristics of the grape host plant affect the emergence phenology of L. botrana.
Full Text Available Climate change has been shown to impact aspects of agriculture and phenology. This study aims to quantify changes in the timing of garden strawberry blooms and harvests in the Baltic States using Regional Climate Models (RCMs. First, parameters for a strawberry phenology model based on the growing degree day (GDD methodology were determined. Growing degree days were calculated using a modified sine wave method that estimates the diurnal temperature cycle from the daily maximum and minimum temperature. Model parameters include the base temperature and the required cumulative GDD sum, estimated from phenological and meteorological observations in Latvia for the years 2010–2013 via iterative calibration. Then an ensemble of bias-corrected RCM results (ENSEMBLES project was used as input to the phenological model to estimate the timing of strawberry phenological processes for the years 1951–2099. The results clearly show that strawberry phenological processes can be expected to occur earlier in the future, with a significant change in regional patterns. Differences between coastal and inland regions are expected to decrease over time. The uncertainty of the results was estimated using the RCM ensemble spread, with northern coastal locations showing the largest spread.
Full Text Available Climate change affects the timing of phenological events, such as the start, end, and length of the growing season of vegetation. A better understanding of how the phenology responded to climatic determinants is important in order to better anticipate future climate-ecosystem interactions. We examined the changes of three phenological events for the Mongolian Plateau and their climatic determinants. To do so, we derived three phenological metrics from remotely sensed vegetation indices and associated these with climate data for the period of 1982 to 2011. The results suggested that the start of the growing season advanced by 0.10 days yr-1, the end was delayed by 0.11 days yr-1, and the length of the growing season expanded by 6.3 days during the period from 1982 to 2011. The delayed end and extended length of the growing season were observed consistently in grassland, forest, and shrubland, while the earlier start was only observed in grassland. Partial correlation analysis between the phenological events and the climate variables revealed that higher temperature was associated with an earlier start of the growing season, and both temperature and precipitation contributed to the later ending. Overall, our findings suggest that climate change will substantially alter the vegetation phenology in the grasslands of the Mongolian Plateau, and likely also in biomes with similar environmental conditions, such as other semi-arid steppe regions.
Miao, Lijuan; Müller, Daniel; Cui, Xuefeng; Ma, Meihong
Climate change affects the timing of phenological events, such as the start, end, and length of the growing season of vegetation. A better understanding of how the phenology responded to climatic determinants is important in order to better anticipate future climate-ecosystem interactions. We examined the changes of three phenological events for the Mongolian Plateau and their climatic determinants. To do so, we derived three phenological metrics from remotely sensed vegetation indices and associated these with climate data for the period of 1982 to 2011. The results suggested that the start of the growing season advanced by 0.10 days yr-1, the end was delayed by 0.11 days yr-1, and the length of the growing season expanded by 6.3 days during the period from 1982 to 2011. The delayed end and extended length of the growing season were observed consistently in grassland, forest, and shrubland, while the earlier start was only observed in grassland. Partial correlation analysis between the phenological events and the climate variables revealed that higher temperature was associated with an earlier start of the growing season, and both temperature and precipitation contributed to the later ending. Overall, our findings suggest that climate change will substantially alter the vegetation phenology in the grasslands of the Mongolian Plateau, and likely also in biomes with similar environmental conditions, such as other semi-arid steppe regions.
Zalamea, Paul-Camilo; Munoz, François; Stevenson, Pablo R; Paine, C E Timothy; Sarmiento, Carolina; Sabatier, Daniel; Heuret, Patrick
Plant phenology is concerned with the timing of recurring biological events. Though phenology has traditionally been studied using intensive surveys of a local flora, results from such surveys are difficult to generalize to broader spatial scales. In this study, contrastingly, we assembled a continental-scale dataset of herbarium specimens for the emblematic genus of Neotropical pioneer trees, Cecropia, and applied Fourier spectral and cospectral analyses to investigate the reproductive phenology of 35 species. We detected significant annual, sub-annual and continuous patterns, and discuss the variation in patterns within and among climatic regions. Although previous studies have suggested that pioneer species generally produce flowers continually throughout the year, we found that at least one third of Cecropia species are characterized by clear annual flowering behaviour. We further investigated the relationships between phenology and climate seasonality, showing strong associations between phenology and seasonal variations in precipitation and temperature. We also verified our results against field survey data gathered from the literature. Our findings indicate that herbarium material is a reliable resource for use in the investigation of large-scale patterns in plant phenology, offering a promising complement to local intensive field studies.
Klimienė, Asta; Vainorienė, Rimanta; Klimas, Ramutis
Šiauliai University Botanical Garden is a member of the International Phenological Garden network since 2005. It is the only one botanical garden in the East Europe that participated in the programme. In 2015, 18 species were observed. For research, data of 14 plants was used. The aim of this study is to estimate the responsiveness of the species of plants of the phenological garden to annual and monthly precipitation and temperature of the air. The main variables in this investigation were growing season length and the beginning of the growing season. In the period 2006-2015, the lowest annual air temperature was in 2010 (6.0 °C), and the highest was in 2015 (8.9 °C). The lowest precipitation was in 2015 (37.3 mm), and the highest was in 2012 (63.5 mm). The leanest regression among growing length, average annual precipitation, and air temperature showed that statistically significant correlation between growing length and average annual air temperature was found for nine plants, between growing length and precipitation was found for three plants, and between growing length and both factors was found for one plant, Salix smithiana, only. Due to the short evaluating period (2007-2015), consistent regression of the length of the growing season could not be found. The growing length of Betula pubescens sequentially increased. The average growing season of 14 plants starts on April 27 (±3), but for Corylus avellana, it is on April 26 (±3). Longevity of the growing season was the most related with precipitation for C. avellana in summer, autumn, and winter and with air temperature, Ribes alpinum and Salix acutifolia in summer and in autumn.
Fan, Y.; Roupsard, O.; Bernoux, M.; Le Maire, G.; Panferov, O.; Kotowska, M. M.; Knohl, A.
of yield and remaining small-scale site-to-site variability of NPP are driven by processes not yet implemented in the model or reflected in the input data. The new sub-canopy structure and phenology and allocation functions in CLM-Palm allow exploring the effects of tropical land-use change, from natural ecosystems to oil palm plantations, on carbon, water and energy cycles and regional climate.
Cao, Sen; Sanchez-Azofeifa, Arturo
Secondary tropical dry forests (TDFs) provide important ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and nutrient cycle regulation. However, their biogeophysical processes at the canopy-atmosphere interface remain unknown, limiting our understanding of how this endangered ecosystem influences, and responds to the ongoing global warming. To facilitate future development of conservation policies, this study characterized the seasonal land surface temperature (LST) behavior of three successional stages (early, intermediate, and late) of a TDF, at the Santa Rosa National Park (SRNP), Costa Rica. A total of 38 Landsat-8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) data and the Surface Reflectance (SR) product were utilized to model LST time series from July 2013 to July 2016 using a radiative transfer equation (RTE) algorithm. We further related the LST time series to seven vegetation indices which reflect different properties of TDFs, and soil moisture data obtained from a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN). Results showed that the LST in the dry season was 15-20 K higher than in the wet season at SRNP. We found that the early successional stages were about 6-8 K warmer than the intermediate successional stages and were 9-10 K warmer than the late successional stages in the middle of the dry season; meanwhile, a minimum LST difference (0-1 K) was observed at the end of the wet season. Leaf phenology and canopy architecture explained most LST variations in both dry and wet seasons. However, our analysis revealed that it is precipitation that ultimately determines the LST variations through both biogeochemical (leaf phenology) and biogeophysical processes (evapotranspiration) of the plants. Results of this study could help physiological modeling studies in secondary TDFs.
Peltoniemi, Mikko; Aurela, Mika; Böttcher, Kristin; Kolari, Pasi; Loehr, John; Karhu, Jouni; Kubin, Eero; Linkosalmi, Maiju; Melih Tanis, Cemal; Nadir Arslan, Ali
Ecosystems' potential to provide services, e.g. to sequester carbon is largely driven by the phenological cycle of vegetation. Timing of phenological events is required for understanding and predicting the influence of climate change on ecosystems and to support various analyses of ecosystem functioning. We established a network of cameras for automated monitoring of phenological activity of vegetation in boreal ecosystems of Finland. Cameras were mounted on 14 sites, each site having 1-3 cameras. In this study, we used cameras at 11 of these sites to investigate how well networked cameras detect phenological development of birches (Betula spp.) along the latitudinal gradient. Birches are interesting focal species for the analyses as they are common throughout Finland. In our cameras they often appear in smaller quantities within dominant species in the images. Here, we tested whether small scattered birch image elements allow reliable extraction of color indices and changes therein. We compared automatically derived phenological dates from these birch image elements to visually determined dates from the same image time series, and to independent observations recorded in the phenological monitoring network from the same region. Automatically extracted season start dates based on the change of green color fraction in the spring corresponded well with the visually interpreted start of season, and field observed budburst dates. During the declining season, red color fraction turned out to be superior over green color based indices in predicting leaf yellowing and fall. The latitudinal gradients derived using automated phenological date extraction corresponded well with gradients based on phenological field observations from the same region. We conclude that already small and scattered birch image elements allow reliable extraction of key phenological dates for birch species. Devising cameras for species specific analyses of phenological timing will be useful for
Park, Isaac W.
This study demonstrates that phenological information included in digital herbarium archives can produce annual phenological estimates correlated to satellite-derived green wave phenology at a regional scale (R = 0.183, P = 0.03). Thus, such records may be utilized in a fashion similar to other annual phenological records and, due to their longer duration and ability to discriminate among the various components of the plant community, hold significant potential for use in future research to supplement the deficiencies of other data sources as well as address a wide array of important issues in ecology and bioclimatology that cannot be addressed easily using more traditional methods.
Platt, Steven G; Monyrath, Vuthy; Sovannara, Heng; Kheng, Long; Rainwater, Thomas R
The Siamese crocodile (Crocodylus siamensis) is considered one of the least studied and most critically endangered crocodilians in the world. Although few wild populations remain, more than 700,000 C. siamensis are held on commercial crocodile farms in Southeast Asia. Despite conservation concerns, many aspects of C. siamensis life history remain poorly known, particularly with regards to its reproductive biology. We studied nesting phenology, clutch characteristics, and other aspects of C. siamensis reproductive biology on crocodile farms in Cambodia during 2000 and 2001. Oviposition among captive crocodiles began in February and continued into early June. The mean (±1 SD) oviposition date based on pooled data from 2000 and 2001 was 5 April ± 24 days. Mean oviposition date differed significantly between 2000 and 2001, possibly as a result of annual variability among nesting cues. The mean incubation period was 72 ± 3 days and eggs hatched from 5 May to 18 August. Mean clutch size (25.0 ± 8.8 eggs; n = 183) differed significantly between years, possibly resulting from the >2.5-fold increase in sample size during 2001. There was no correlation between clutch size and oviposition date during either 2000 or 2001. A single female produced two clutches during 2001, complimenting previous reports of double-clutching among C. siamensis. The mean length and width of 515 eggs were 78.2 ± 4.9 and 48.1 ± 2.5 mm, respectively; mean egg mass was 90.8 ± 16.5 g (n = 471). One unpipped egg contained a set of twins. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Oddi, Facundo; Minotti, Priscilla; Ghermandi, Luciana; Lasaponara, Rosa
Under a global change context, ecosystems are receiving high pressure and the ecology science play a key role for monitoring and assessment of natural resources. To achieve an effective resources management to develop an ecosystem functioning knowledge based on spatio-temporal perspective is useful. Satellite imagery periodically capture the spectral response of the earth and remote sensing have been widely utilized as classification and change detection tool making possible evaluate the intra and inter-annual plant dynamics. Vegetation spectral indices (e.g., NDVI) are particularly suitable to study spatio-temporal processes related to plant phenology and remote sensing specific software, such as TIMESAT, has been developed to carry out time series analysis of spectral indexes. We used TIMESAT software applied to series of 25 years of NDVI bi-monthly composites (240 images covering the period 1982-2006) from the NOAA-AVHRR sensor (8 x 8 km) to assessment plant pheonology over 900000 ha of shrubby-grasslands in the Northwestern of Patagonia, Argentina. The study area corresponds to a Mediterranean environment and is part of a gradient defined by a sharp drop west-east in the precipitation regime (600 mm to 280 mm). We fitted the temporal series of NDVI data to double logistic functions by least-squares methods evaluating three seasonality parameters: a) start of growing season, b) growing season length, c) NDVI seasonal integral. According to fitted models by TIMESAT, start average of growing season was the second half of September (± 10 days) with beginnings latest in the east (dryer areas). The average growing season length was 180 days (± 15 days) without a clear spatial trend. The NDVI seasonal integral showed a clear trend of decrease in west-east direction following the precipitation gradient. The temporal and spatial information allows revealing important patterns of ecological interest, which can be of great importance to environmental monitoring. In this
Rutishauser, T.; Stoekli, R.; Jeanneret, F.; Peñuelas, J.
Changes in the seasonality of life cycles of plants as recorded in phenological observations have been widely analysed at the species level with data available for many decades back in time. At the same time, seasonality changes in satellite-based observations and prognostic phenology models comprise information at the pixel-size or landscape scale. Change analysis of satellite-based records is restricted due to relatively short satellite records that further include gaps while model-based analyses are biased due to current model deficiencies. At 30 selected sites across Europe, we analysed three different sources of plant seasonality during the 1971-2000 period. Data consisted of (1) species-specific development stages of flowering and leave-out with different species observed at each site. (2) We used a synthetic phenological metric that integrates the common interannual phenological signal across all species at one site. (3) We estimated daily Leaf Area Index with a prognostic phenology model. The prior uncertainties of the model’s empirical parameter space are constrained by assimilating the Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We extracted the day of year when the 25%, 50% and 75% thresholds were passed each spring. The question arises how the three phenological signals compare and correlate across climate zones in Europe. Is there a match between single species observations, species-based ground-observed metrics and the landscape-scale prognostic model? Are there single key-species across Europe that best represent a landscape scale measure from the prognostic model? Can one source substitute another and serve as proxy-data? What can we learn from potential mismatches? Focusing on changes in spring this contribution presents first results of an ongoing comparison study from a number of European test sites that will be extended
Rutishauser, This; Stöckli, Reto; Jeanneret, François; Peñuelas, Josep
Changes in the seasonality of life cycles of plants as recorded in phenological observations have been widely analysed at the species level with data available for many decades back in time. At the same time, seasonality changes in satellite-based observations and prognostic phenology models comprise information at the pixel-size or landscape scale. Change analysis of satellite-based records is restricted due to relatively short satellite records that further include gaps while model-based analyses are biased due to current model deficiencies., At 30 selected sites across Europe, we analysed three different sources of plant seasonality during the 1971-2000 period. Data consisted of (1) species-specific development stages of flowering and leave-out with different species observed at each site. (2) We used a synthetic phenological metric that integrates the common interannual phenological signal across all species at one site. (3) We estimated daily Leaf Area Index with a prognostic phenology model. The prior uncertainties of the model's empirical parameter space are constrained by assimilating the Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We extracted the day of year when the 25%, 50% and 75% thresholds were passed each spring. The question arises how the three phenological signals compare and correlate across climate zones in Europe. Is there a match between single species observations, species-based ground-observed metrics and the landscape-scale prognostic model? Are there single key-species across Europe that best represent a landscape scale measure from the prognostic model? Can one source substitute another and serve as proxy-data? What can we learn from potential mismatches? Focusing on changes in spring this contribution presents first results of an ongoing comparison study from a number of European test sites that will be extended to
Tao, Juan; He, Dekui; Kennard, Mark J; Ding, Chengzhi; Bunn, Stuart E; Liu, Chunlong; Jia, Yintao; Che, Rongxiao; Chen, Yifeng
Phenological responses to climate change have been widely observed and have profound and lasting effects on ecosystems and biodiversity. However, compared to terrestrial ecosystems, the long-term effects of climate change on species' phenology are poorly understood in aquatic ecosystems. Understanding the long-term changes in fish reproductive phenology is essential for predicting population dynamics and for informing management strategies, but is currently hampered by the requirement for intensive field observations and larval identification. In this study, a very low-frequency sampling of juveniles and adults combined with otolith measurements (long axis length of the first annulus; LAFA) of an endemic Tibetan Plateau fish (Gymnocypris selincuoensis) was used to examine changes in reproductive phenology associated with climate changes from the 1970s to 2000s. Assigning individual fish to their appropriate calendar year class was assisted by dendrochronological methods (crossdating). The results demonstrated that LAFA was significantly and positively associated with temperature and growing season length. To separate the effects of temperature and the growing season length on LAFA growth, measurements of larval otoliths from different sites were conducted and revealed that daily increment additions were the main contributor (46.3%), while temperature contributed less (12.0%). Using constructed water-air temperature relationships and historical air temperature records, we found that the reproductive phenology of G. selincuoensis was strongly advanced in the spring during the 1970s and 1990s, while the increased growing season length in the 2000s was mainly due to a delayed onset of winter. The reproductive phenology of G. selincuoensis advanced 2.9 days per decade on average from the 1970s to 2000s, and may have effects on recruitment success and population dynamics of this species and other biota in the ecosystem via the food web. The methods used in this study
Rasmussen, Nick L; Rudolf, Volker H W
Timing of phenological events varies among years with natural variation in environmental conditions and is also shifting in response to climate change. These phenological shifts likely have many effects on species interactions. Most research on the ecological consequences of phenological shifts has focused on variation in simple metrics such as phenological firsts. However, for a population, a phenological event exhibits a temporal distribution with many attributes that can vary (e.g., mean, variance, skewness), each of which likely has distinct effects on interactions. In this study, we manipulated two attributes of the phenological distribution of a prey species to determine their individual and combined effects on predator-prey interactions. Specifically, we studied how shifts in the mean and variation around the mean (i.e., synchrony) of hatching by tadpoles (Hyla cinerea) affected interactions with predatory dragonfly naiads (Tramea carolina). At the end of larval development, we quantified survival and growth of predator and prey. We found that both types of shifts altered demographic rates of the prey; that the effects of synchrony shifts, though rarely studied, were at least as strong as those due to mean shifts; and that the combined effects of shifts in synchrony and mean were additive rather than synergistic. By dissecting the roles of two types of shifts, this study represents a significant step toward a comprehensive understanding of the complex effects of phenological shifts on species interactions. Embracing this complexity is critical for predicting how climate change will alter community dynamics. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.
Garcia-Mozo, Herminia; Oteros, Jose; Galan, Carmen
Modifications of crop species phenology due to a changing environment are of interest because of their impact on fruit set and final harvest. Pre-flowering and flowering phenophases in olive groves at different sites of southern Spain were examined, in order to chart potential trends and determine major correlations with weather-related parameters, especially temperature and water availability. The high prevalence of olive pollen allergy in the Mediterranean population makes this study highly relevant. Ten sites in Cordoba province (Spain) during a 17-year period (1996-2012). BBCH phenology scale. Meteorological data from 1960 were analyzed; data from 1996 included on modeling analysis. Linear Mixed Models (LMMs) were developed, combining phenological and meteorological data. Since 1960, local spring temperatures have increased 1.5ºC, the number of spring rainfall days has fallen 11 days, total rainfall has declined 150 mm. Despite phenological differences between sites, attributable to altitude, phenological development during the season followed a similar pattern. Flowering dates advanced 2 days, while inflorescence emergence was delayed 24 days. Trend slopes revealed differences, an earlier period (1996-2002) with a sharp flowering advance of 15 days, and a later period (2003-2012) characterized by a gradual advance and a high bud emergence delay of 22 days. LMMs was revealed as an appropriate technique for phenology behaviour analysis displaying both fixed and random interactions. Cultivars grown in the study province are adapted to climate with a synchronized response, although climate change is affecting theolive reproductive cycle in southern Spain; therefore, the timing of pollen release, with subsequent consequences on allergic population as phenological changes, could have impacts on flowering period and pollen production. Further investigation is required of the implications for crop production in Mediterranean ecosystems.
Full Text Available Introduction. Modifications of crop species phenology due to a changing environment are of interest because of their impact on fruit set and final harvest. Pre-flowering and flowering phenophases in olive groves at different sites of southern Spain were examined, in order to chart potential trends and determine major correlations with weather-related parameters, especially temperature and water availability. The high prevalence of olive pollen allergy in the Mediterranean population makes this study highly relevant. Materials and methods. Ten sites in Cordoba province (Spain during a 17-year period (1996–2012. BBCH phenology scale. Meteorological data from 1960 were analyzed; data from 1996 included on modeling analysis. Linear Mixed Models (LMMs were developed, combining phenological and meteorological data. Results. Since 1960, local spring temperatures have increased 1.5ºC, the number of spring rainfall days has fallen 11 days, total rainfall has declined 150 mm. Despite phenological differences between sites, attributable to altitude, phenological development during the season followed a similar pattern. Flowering dates advanced 2 days, while inflorescence emergence was delayed 24 days. Trend slopes revealed differences, an earlier period (1996–2002 with a sharp flowering advance of 15 days, and a later period (2003–2012 characterized by a gradual advance and a high bud emergence delay of 22 days. Conclusions. LMMs was revealed as an appropriate technique for phenology behaviour analysis displaying both fixed and random interactions. Cultivars grown in the study province are adapted to climate with a synchronized response, although climate change is affecting theolive reproductive cycle in southern Spain; therefore, the timing of pollen release, with subsequent consequences on allergic population as phenological changes, could have impacts on flowering period and pollen production. Further investigation is required of the implications
Tekusova, M.; Horecká, V.; Mikulová, K.
Phenological observations have a long history. The long time series come from Korea and some other parts of Asia, while wine harvest dates form the oldest phenological data sets in Europe. One of them started as early as 1457 year in Vienna, i.e. on the border of the Carpathian region. However, the first systematic phenological observations started in the south Carpathians almost four hundred years later following the establishment of the phenological network in Austria and later in the Hungarian Kingdom. A medical doctor P. Wierbitzky did first phenological observations in the Carpathian region in the beginning of thirties of the nineteenth century in Orawicza. The first systematic observations and records of plant development in this region are connected with the establishment of Austrian Institute for Meteorology and Geomagnetism since 1851. Although the historical significance of these observations is high, the data recorded are of lower quality, frequently interrupted and fragmented. Further development of phenological observations came with the introduction of the methodology of the observations introduced by Karl Fritsch in the beginning of the sixties of the nineteenth century mainly with the establishment of Hungarian Meteorological Service in 1871. These historical data were recorded and published in the yearbooks and, despite of the fragmentary character of the records, they are usable for some evaluations. This article brings the description of the data sets of systematic phenological network in the Carpathian region and considers some possible phenological evaluations. The phenological observations were done in some cases at the same localities as the climatologic observations but the number of phenological stations was quite lower in several years. The historical plant phenological records were based in many cases on the observation of four phenological phases: leafing, flowering, ripening and fall of leaves. Both the volume and the quality of the
Joschinski, Jens; Hovestadt, Thomas; Krauss, Jochen
Climate change can alter the phenology of organisms. It may thus lead seasonal organisms to face different day lengths than in the past, and the fitness consequences of these changes are as yet unclear. To study such effects, we used the pea aphid Acyrthosiphon pisum as a model organism, as it has obligately asexual clones which can be used to study day length effects without eliciting a seasonal response. We recorded life-history traits under short and long days, both with two realistic temperature cycles with means differing by 2 °C. In addition, we measured the population growth of aphids on their host plant Pisum sativum. We show that short days reduce fecundity and the length of the reproductive period of aphids. Nevertheless, this does not translate into differences at the population level because the observed fitness costs only become apparent late in the individual's life. As expected, warm temperature shortens the development time by 0.7 days/°C, leading to faster generation times. We found no interaction of temperature and day length. We conclude that day length changes cause only relatively mild costs, which may not decelerate the increase in pest status due to climate change.
Full Text Available Climate change can alter the phenology of organisms. It may thus lead seasonal organisms to face different day lengths than in the past, and the fitness consequences of these changes are as yet unclear. To study such effects, we used the pea aphid Acyrthosiphon pisum as a model organism, as it has obligately asexual clones which can be used to study day length effects without eliciting a seasonal response. We recorded life-history traits under short and long days, both with two realistic temperature cycles with means differing by 2 °C. In addition, we measured the population growth of aphids on their host plant Pisum sativum. We show that short days reduce fecundity and the length of the reproductive period of aphids. Nevertheless, this does not translate into differences at the population level because the observed fitness costs only become apparent late in the individual’s life. As expected, warm temperature shortens the development time by 0.7 days/°C, leading to faster generation times. We found no interaction of temperature and day length. We conclude that day length changes cause only relatively mild costs, which may not decelerate the increase in pest status due to climate change.
Brown, Molly E.; deBeurs, Kirsten; Vrieling, Anton
Variations in agricultural production due to rainfall and temperature fluctuations are a primary cause of food insecurity on the continent in Africa. Agriculturally destructive droughts and floods are monitored from space using satellite remote sensing by organizations seeking to provide quantitative and predictive information about food security crises. Better knowledge on the relation between climate indices and food production may increase the use of these indices in famine early warning systems and climate outlook forums on the continent. Here we explore the relationship between phenology metrics derived from the 26 year AVHRR NDVI record and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We explore spatial relationships between growing conditions as measured by the NDVI and the five climate indices in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa to determine the regions and periods when they have a significant impact. The focus is to provide a clear indication as to which climate index has the most impact on the three regions during the past quarter century. We found that the start of season and cumulative NDVI were significantly affected by variations in the climate indices. The particular climate index and the timing showing highest correlation depended heavily on the region examined. The research shows that climate indices can contribute to understanding growing season variability in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa.
Carmelo Peter Bonsignore
Full Text Available The phenology of Capnodis tenebrionis adults was presented with reference to two different climate conditions. In a temperate moderate-warm climate, adult density showed two separate peaks during the year: one in early summer of the overwintering generation and one with beetles emerging in the late summer. In a warmer semiarid climate, the overwintering adults and the new generation overlapped during summer with a continuous increase of adult density. The difference in the average annual temperature between areas during the study period was almost 3∘C, and, in the warmer area, the new generation of C. tenebrionis emerged at least one month earlier. To make a prediction of adult presence, a model utilizing degree-days was developed from data collected over a five-year period. Models obtained from equations (Logistic 4-parameter, y(x=yo+a/(1+(x/xob of each year were developed to describe the relationship between degree-day accumulation (with a minimal threshold activity temperature of 14.21∘C calculated in the laboratory and the cumulative percentage of adult presence. According to the overall model, the 50% of overwintering beetles occurred at 726 degree-days (Biofix: 1st March and the emerging beetles occurred at 801 degree-days (Biofix: 1st July. The results show that a change in temperature is an important aspect that highlights the adaptability of this species.
The relationship between the appearance of small soil animals, number of birds and the season makes it possible to judge flight safety risks. The phenological phase of special plant species also controls the appearance of birds, for particular birds prefer particular states of vegetation, e.g. in pastured areas. This may suggest the possibilities for flight safety in the airfields and their vicinity. During low and high level flights of aircraft it has been necessary to forecast the beginning and course of migration. Beginning of migration is a function of fat deposit in the bird's body which in turn is a function of food uptake. Weather situations and single meteorological parameters influence the course of migration. By observing bird migration by radar and by combining radar data with weather data it has been possible to publish not only medium and long-scale forecasts but also actual warnings. Modern radar technique rendered the observation more difficult but this problem can be solved by introducing new methods.
Hart, Robbie; Salick, Jan; Ranjitkar, Sailesh; Xu, Jianchu
Responses by flowering plants to climate change are complex and only beginning to be understood. Through analyses of 10,295 herbarium specimens of Himalayan Rhododendron collected by plant hunters and botanists since 1884, we were able to separate these responses into significant components. We found a lack of directional change in mean flowering time over the past 45 y of rapid warming. However, over the full 125 y of collections, mean flowering time shows a significant response to year-to-year changes in temperature, and this response varies with season of warming. Mean flowering advances with annual warming (2.27 d earlier per 1 °C warming), and also is delayed with fall warming (2.54 d later per 1 °C warming). Annual warming may advance flowering through positive effects on overwintering bud formation, whereas fall warming may delay flowering through an impact on chilling requirements. The lack of a directional response suggests that contrasting phenological responses to temperature changes may obscure temperature sensitivity in plants. By drawing on large collections from multiple herbaria, made over more than a century, we show how these data may inform studies even of remote localities, and we highlight the increasing value of these and other natural history collections in understanding long-term change.
Legros, S; Mialet-Serra, I; Caliman, J-P; Siregar, F A; Clement-Vidal, A; Fabre, D; Dingkuhn, M
Despite its simple architecture and small phenotypic plasticity, oil palm has complex phenology and source-sink interactions. Phytomers appear in regular succession but their development takes years, involving long lag periods between environmental influences and their effects on sinks. Plant adjustments to resulting source-sink imbalances are poorly understood. This study investigated oil palm adjustments to imbalances caused by severe fruit pruning. An experiment with two treatments (control and complete fruit pruning) during 22 months in 2006-2008) and six replications per treatment was conducted in Indonesia. Phenology, growth of above-ground vegetative and reproductive organs, leaf morphology, inflorescence sex differentiation, dynamics of non-structural carbohydrate reserves and light-saturated net photosynthesis (A(max)) were monitored. Artificial sink limitation by complete fruit pruning accelerated development rate, resulting in higher phytomer, leaf and inflorescence numbers. Leaf size and morphology remained unchanged. Complete fruit pruning also suppressed the abortion of male inflorescences, estimated to be triggered at about 16 months before bunch maturity. The number of female inflorescences increased after an estimated lag of 24-26 months, corresponding to time from sex differentiation to bunch maturity. The most important adjustment process was increased assimilate storage in the stem, attaining nearly 50 % of dry weight in the stem top, mainly as starch, whereas glucose, which in controls was the most abundant non-structural carbohydrate stored in oil palm, decreased. The development rate of oil palm is in part controlled by source-sink relationships. Although increased rate of development and proportion of female inflorescences constituted observed adjustments to sink limitation, the low plasticity of plant architecture (constant leaf size, absence of branching) limited compensatory growth. Non-structural carbohydrate storage was thus the main
Asse, Daphné; Randin, Christophe; Chuine, Isabelle
Mountain regions are particularly exposed to climate change and temperature. In the Alps increased twice faster than in the northern hemisphere during the 20th century. As an immediate response, spring phenological phases of plant species such as budburst and flowering, have tended to occur earlier. In 2004, the CREA (Centre de Recherches sur les Ecosystèmes d'Altitude, Chamonix, France) initiated the citizen science program Phenoclim, which aims at assessing the long-term effects of climate changes on plant phenology over the entire French Alps. Sixty sites with phenological observations were equipped with temperature stations across a large elevational gradient. Here we used phenological records for five tree species (birch, ash, hazel, spruce and larch) combined with measurements or projections of temperature. We first tested the effects of geographic and topo-climatic factors on the timing of spring phenological phases. We then tested the hypothesis that a lack of chilling temperature during winter delayed dormancy release and subsequently spring phenological phases. Our data are currently being used to calibrate process-based phenological models to test to which extent soil temperature and photoperiod affect the timing of spring phenological phases. We found that growing degree-days was the best predictor of the timing of spring phenological phases, with a significant contribution of chilling. Our results also suggest that spring phenological phases were consistently delayed at low elevation by a lack of chilling in fall during warm years for the three deciduous species. Key words: Spring phenology, elevation gradients, citizen science, empirical and process-based modeling
Allen H Hurlbert
Full Text Available A growing number of studies have documented shifts in avian migratory phenology in response to climate change, and yet there is a large amount of unexplained variation in the magnitude of those responses across species and geographic regions. We use a database of citizen science bird observations to explore spatiotemporal variation in mean arrival dates across an unprecedented geographic extent for 18 common species in North America over the past decade, relating arrival dates to mean minimum spring temperature. Across all species and geographic locations, species shifted arrival dates 0.8 days earlier for every °C of warming of spring temperature, but it was common for some species in some locations to shift as much as 3-6 days earlier per °C. Species that advanced arrival dates the earliest in response to warming were those that migrate more slowly, short distance migrants, and species with broader climatic niches. These three variables explained 63% of the interspecific variation in phenological response. We also identify a latitudinal gradient in the average strength of phenological response, with species shifting arrival earlier at southern latitudes than northern latitudes for the same degree of warming. This observation is consistent with the idea that species must be more phenologically sensitive in less seasonal environments to maintain the same degree of precision in phenological timing.
Full Text Available This work was carried out in order to study the phenological pattern of brasil-nut trees in natural forest located in the south of Roraima state, in order to relate the frequency of occurrence of phenophases with rainfall. For the phenological survey 20 adult trees (DBH > 50 cm were selected in a permanent sample plot of 9 ha. The phenological observations occurred fortnightly from February 2006 to February 2009, when data were collected on the presence or absence of events of flowering, fruiting, leaf flushing and leaf fall for each tree. The Index of population synchrony was used for estimating the synchrony of phenological events. The flowering of brasil-nut proved to be regular, annual, long and synchronous and was correlated with the reduction of rainfall. The fruiting was regular and synchronous, and dispersal was correlated with rainfall reduction. The phenological pattern of leaf flushing tended to vary yearly, being around the continual one in 2007 and bimodal in 2006 and 2008. It was noticed a higher proportion of trees falling leaves between August and October which characterizes a period of transition between the dry and the rainy time with sensitive reduction of rainfall.
Wollenberg Valero, Katharina C; Isokpehi, Raphael D; Douglas, Noah E; Sivasundaram, Seenith; Johnson, Brianna; Wootson, Kiara; McGill, Ayana
Ebola virus disease outbreaks in animals (including humans and great apes) start with sporadic host switches from unknown reservoir species. The factors leading to such spillover events are little explored. Filoviridae viruses have a wide range of natural hosts and are unstable once outside hosts. Spillover events, which involve the physical transfer of viral particles across species, could therefore be directly promoted by conditions of host ecology and environment. In this report, we outline a proof of concept that temporal fluctuations of a set of ecological and environmental variables describing the dynamics of the host ecosystem are able to predict such events of Ebola virus spillover to humans and animals. We compiled a data set of climate and plant phenology variables and Ebola virus disease spillovers in humans and animals. We identified critical biotic and abiotic conditions for spillovers via multiple regression and neural network-based time series regression. Phenology variables proved to be overall better predictors than climate variables. African phenology variables are not yet available as a comprehensive online resource. Given the likely importance of phenology for forecasting the likelihood of future Ebola spillover events, our results highlight the need for cost-effective transect surveys to supply phenology data for predictive modelling efforts.
Wang, Zhanbiao; Chen, Jing; Xing, Fangfang; Han, Yingchun; Chen, Fu; Zhang, Lifeng; Li, Yabing; Li, Cundong
To identify countermeasures for the impacts of climate change on crop production, exploring the changes in crop phenology and their relationship to climate change is required. This study was based on cotton phenology and climate data collected from 13 agro-meteorological experimental stations and 13 meteorological stations on the North China Plain from 1981 to 2012. Spatiotemporal trends in the cotton phenology data, lengths of the different growing phases, mean temperatures, and rainfall were analyzed. These results indicated that warming accelerated cotton growth, advanced cotton phenology, and shortened the growing period of cotton. However, harvest dates were significantly delayed at 8 (61.5%) stations, the length of both the flowering-boll opening and boll opening-harvest periods increased at 10 (77.0%) stations, and a positive correlation was found between the mean temperature and the length of the whole growing period at 10 (77.0%) stations. Therefore, cotton practices and cultivars on the North China Plain should be adjusted accordingly. The response of cotton phenology to climate change, as shown here, can further guide the development of options for the adaptation of cotton production in the near future.
Schwartz, Mark D.
The centuries-old practice of recording plant and animal events that take place at specific times each year (phenology) should play an important role in monitoring mid-latitude global changes. At least three problems related to the detection of biosphere changes could be investigated using this information. Firstly, the technique can be generalized from the local to global scale. Secondly, an integrated approach could be developed to represent biome diversity effectively. Lastly, physical mechanisms responsible for the events can be deduced in order to incorporate the phenological information into global-scale models, and detect changes in related environmental factors. With these goals in mind, regional phenological data collection networks were initiated in eastern North America during the early 1960s, using cloned lilacs and several species of honeysuckle. This paper reviews research projects which address the problems outlined above, using first leaf data (associated with spring green-up or “green wave” in mid-latitudes) gathered from these networks. The results of such studies in North America have demonstrated the potential of phenology as an efficient monitor of global change throughout mid-latitude regions. Future research efforts will concentrate on the development of a coordinated strategy to link phenological information from satellites, indicator plants (such as the lilac), and representative species from each biome.
Jochner, Susanne; Markevych, Iana; Beck, Isabelle; Traidl-Hoffmann, Claudia
Pollution adversely affects vegetation; however, its impact on phenology and leaf morphology is not satisfactorily understood yet. We analyzed associations between pollutants and phenological data of birch, hazel and horse chestnut in Munich (2010) along with the suitability of leaf morphological parameters of birch for monitoring air pollution using two datasets: cumulated atmospheric concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and ozone derived from passive sampling (short-term exposure) and pollutant information derived from Land Use Regression models (long-term exposure). Partial correlations and stepwise regressions revealed that increased ozone (birch, horse chestnut), NO 2 , NO x and PM levels (hazel) were significantly related to delays in phenology. Correlations were especially high when rural sites were excluded suggesting a better estimation of long-term within-city pollution. In situ measurements of foliar characteristics of birch were not suitable for bio-monitoring pollution. Inconsistencies between long- and short-term exposure effects suggest some caution when interpreting short-term data collected within field studies. - Highlights: • We present results of a field survey examining pollution effects on vegetation. • Particularly ozone was significantly associated with delays in spring phenology. • Leaf morphology of birch was found to be inadequate for bio-monitoring pollution. • Inconsistencies between long-/short-term exposure effects suggest caution. - Pollutants were significantly associated with delays in spring phenology. However, inconsistencies between long- and short-term exposure effects suggest some caution when interpreting results.
Full Text Available The Hawaiian Islands are an ideal location to study the response of tropical forests to climate variability because of their extreme isolation in the middle of the Pacific, which makes them especially sensitive to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO. Most research examining the response of tropical forests to drought or El Niño have focused on rainforests, however, tropical dry forests cover a large area of the tropics and may respond very differently than rainforests. We use satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI from February 2000-February 2009 to show that rainforests and dry forests in the Hawaiian Islands exhibit asynchronous responses in leaf phenology to seasonal and El Niño-driven drought. Dry forest NDVI was more tightly coupled with precipitation compared to rainforest NDVI. Rainforest cloud frequency was negatively correlated with the degree of asynchronicity (Delta(NDVI between forest types, most strongly at a 1-month lag. Rainforest green-up and dry forest brown-down was particularly apparent during the 2002-003 El Niño. The spatial pattern of NDVI response to the NINO 3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST index during 2002-2003 showed that the leeward side exhibited significant negative correlations to increased SSTs, whereas the windward side exhibited significant positive correlations to increased SSTs, most evident at an 8 to 9-month lag. This study demonstrates that different tropical forest types exhibit asynchronous responses to seasonal and El Niño-driven drought, and suggests that mechanisms controlling dry forest leaf phenology are related to water-limitation, whereas rainforests are more light-limited.
Williams, C.T.; Sheriff, M.J.; Schmutz, J.A.; Kohl, F.; Toien, O.; Buck, C.L.; Barnes, B.M.
Precise measures of phenology are critical to understanding how animals organize their annual cycles and how individuals and populations respond to climate-induced changes in physical and ecological stressors. We show that patterns of core body temperature (T b) can be used to precisely determine the timing of key seasonal events including hibernation, mating and parturition, and immergence and emergence from the hibernacula in free-living arctic ground squirrels (Urocitellus parryii). Using temperature loggers that recorded T b every 20 min for up to 18 months, we monitored core T b from three females that subsequently gave birth in captivity and from 66 female and 57 male ground squirrels free-living in the northern foothills of the Brooks Range Alaska. In addition, dates of emergence from hibernation were visually confirmed for four free-living male squirrels. Average T b in captive females decreased by 0.5–1.0°C during gestation and abruptly increased by 1–1.5°C on the day of parturition. In free-living females, similar shifts in T b were observed in 78% (n = 9) of yearlings and 94% (n = 31) of adults; females without the shift are assumed not to have given birth. Three of four ground squirrels for which dates of emergence from hibernation were visually confirmed did not exhibit obvious diurnal rhythms in T b until they first emerged onto the surface when T b patterns became diurnal. In free-living males undergoing reproductive maturation, this pre-emergence euthermic interval averaged 20.4 days (n = 56). T b-loggers represent a cost-effective and logistically feasible method to precisely investigate the phenology of reproduction and hibernation in ground squirrels.
This data set provides a time series of vegetation phenological observations for 133 sites across diverse ecosystems of North America and Europe from 2000-2015. The phenology data were derived from conventional visible-wavelength automated digital camera imagery collected through the PhenoCam Networ...
Fitchett, Jennifer M.; Ebhuoma, Eromose
Shifts in the timing of phenological events in plants and animals are cited as one of the most robust bioindicators of climate change. Much effort has thus been placed on the collection of phenological datasets, the quantification of the rates of phenological shifts and the association of these shifts with recorded meteorological data. These outputs are of value both in tracking the severity of climate change and in facilitating more robust management approaches in forestry and agriculture to changing climatic conditions. However, such an approach requires meteorological and phenological records spanning multiple decades. For communities in the Delta State of Nigeria, small-scale farming communities do not have access to meteorological records, and the dissemination of government issued daily to seasonal forecasts has only taken place in recent years. Their ability to survive inter-annual to inter-decadal climatic variability and longer-term climatic change has thus relied on well-entrenched indigenous knowledge systems (IKS). An analysis of the environmental cues that are used to infer the timing and amount of rainfall by farmers from three communities in the Delta State reveals a reliance on phenological events, including the croaking of frogs, the appearance of red millipedes and the emergence of fresh rubber tree and cassava leaves. These represent the first recorded awareness of phenology within the Delta State of Nigeria, and a potentially valuable source of phenological data. However, the reliance of these indicators is of concern given the rapid phenological shifts occurring in response to climate change.
J. Grogan; M. D. Loveless
Premise of the study: Flowering phenology is a crucial determinant of reproductive success and offspring genetic diversity in plants. We measure the fl owering phenology of big-leaf mahogany ( Swietenia macrophylla , Meliaceae), a widely distributed neotropical tree, and explore how disturbance from logging impacts its reproductive biology. â¢ Methods: We use a crown...
Curlyleaf pondweed is a widespread invasive aquatic plant in the northern United States and southern Canada. While the phenology and life history of this species has been studied for several northern tier states, the phenology has not been examined in the south. We sampled curlyleaf pondweed each ...
Peter J. Gould; Constance A. Harrington; Bradley J. St Clair
Models to predict budburst and other phenological events in plants are needed to forecast how climate change may impact ecosystems and for the development of mitigation strategies. Differences among genotypes are important to predicting phenological events in species that show strong clinal variation in adaptive traits. We present a model that incorporates the effects...
Audrey Addison; James A. Powell; Barbara J. Bentz; Diana L. Six
The fates of individual species are often tied to synchronization of phenology, however, few methods have been developed for integrating phenological models involving linked species. In this paper, we focus on mountain pine beetle (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae) and its two obligate mutualistic fungi, Grosmannia clavigera and Ophiostoma montium. Growth rates of...
Balzarolo, M.; Vicca, S.; Nguy-Robertson, A.L.; Bonal, D.; Elbers, J.A.; Fu, Y.H.; Grünwald, T.; Horemans, J.A.; Papale, D.; Peñuelas, J.; Suyker, A.; Veroustraete, F.
Shifts in ecosystem phenology play an important role in the definition of inter-annual variability of net ecosystem carbon uptake. A good estimate at the global scale of ecosystem phenology, mainly that of photosynthesis or gross primary productivity (GPP), may be provided by vegetation indices
White, M.A.; Beurs, de K.M.; Didan, K.; Inouye, D.W.; Richardson, A.D.; Jensen, O.P.; Magnuson, J.; O'Keefe, J.; Zhang, G.; Nemani, R.R.; Leeuwen, van W.J.D.; Brown, J.F.; Wit, de A.J.W.; Schaepman, M.E.; Lin, X.; Dettinger, M.; Bailey, A.; Kimball, J.; Schwartz, M.D.; Baldocchi, D.D.; Lee, J.T.; Lauenroth, W.K.
Shifts in the timing of spring phenology are a central feature of global change research. Long-term observations of plant phenology have been used to track vegetation responses to climate variability but are often limited to particular species and locations and may not represent synoptic patterns.
Gunderson, Carla A [ORNL; Edwards, Nelson T [ORNL; Walker, Ashley V [ORNL; O' Hara, Keiran H [ORNL; Campion, Christina M [ORNL; Hanson, Paul J [ORNL
Predicting forest responses to warming climates relies on assumptions about niche and temperature sensitivity that remain largely untested. Observational studies have related current and historical temperatures to phenological shifts, but experimental evidence is sparse, particularly for autumn responses. A five-year field experiment exposed four deciduous forest species from contrasting climates (Liquidambar styraciflua, Quercus rubra, Populus grandidentata, and Betula alleghaniensis) to air temperatures 2 and 4 C above ambient controls. Impacts of year-round warming on bud burst (BB), senescence and abscission were evaluated in relation to thermal provenance. Leaves emerged earlier in all species, by an average of 6-9 days at +2 and +4 C. Magnitude of advance varied with species and year, but was larger for the first 2 C increment than the second. The effect of warming increased with early BB, favoring Liquidambar, from the warmest climate, but even BB in northern species advanced, despite temperatures well beyond those of the realized niche. Treatment differences in BB were poorly explained by temperature sums, which increased with treatment. In autumn, chlorophyll was retained an average of 4 and 7 days longer in +2 and +4 C treatments, and abscission delayed by 8 and 13 days. Species differences in autumn responses were marginally significant. Growing seasons in the warmer atmospheres were 6 - 28 days longer, with the least impact in Quercus. Results are compared with a 16-year record of canopy onset and offset in a nearby upland deciduous forest, where BB showed similar responsiveness to spring temperatures (2 - 4 days C-1). Offset dates in the stand tracked August-September temperatures, except when late summer drought caused premature senescence. The common garden-like experimental approach provides evidence that warming alone extends the growing season, at both ends, even if stand-level impacts are complicated by other environmental factors.
Full Text Available The question as to why parasites remain generalist or become specialist is a key unresolved question in evolutionary biology. Ampelomyces spp., intracellular mycoparasites of powdery mildew fungi, which are themselves plant pathogens, are a useful model for studies of this issue. Ampelomyces is used for the biological control of mildew. Differences in mycohost phenology promote temporal isolation between sympatric Ampelomyces mycoparasites. Apple powdery mildew (APM causes spring epidemics, whereas other powdery mildew species on plants other than apple cause epidemics later in the season. This has resulted in genetic differentiation between APM and non-APM strains. It is unclear whether there is genetic differentiation between non-APM Ampelomyces lineages due to their specialization on different mycohosts. We used microsatellites to address this question and found no significant differentiation between non-APM Ampelomyces strains from different mycohosts or host plants, but strong differentiation between APM and non-APM strains. A geographical structure was revealed in both groups, with differences between European countries, demonstrating restricted dispersal at the continent scale and a high resolution for our markers. We found footprints of recombination in both groups, possibly more frequent in the APM cluster. Overall, Ampelomyces thus appears to be one of the rare genuine generalist pathogenic fungi able to parasitize multiple hosts in natural populations. It is therefore an excellent model for studying the evolution of pathogens towards a generalist rather than host-specific strategy, particularly in light of the tritrophic interaction between Ampelomyces mycoparasites, their powdery mildew fungal hosts and the mildew host plants.
Shaheen, S.; Iqbal, Z.; Ijaz, F.; Rahman, I.
Detailed field survey was carried out to assess the floristic composition, phenology, leaf and biological spectrum of Tehsil Havelian during 2011-2012. A total of 205 plant species belonging to 78 families were documented. According to plant habit there are 129 species of herbs, 38 species of trees and 38 species of shrubs. Asteraceae and Lamiaceae were dominant families with 15 species each, then Brassicaceae 11 species, Rosaceae and Papilionaceae with 10 species each. They were followed by Ranunculaceae with 9 species. All the remaining 72 families have less than 7 members. Flowering season was classified in two spells, first from March to July with 62.56% herbs, 19.48% shrubs, 18.46% trees, 2.56% grasses and 1.02% ferns. Second spell starts from August to November with 50% shrubs, 30% herbs and 20% trees. The life form classes were determined by the Raunkier's method which reveals that the most dominant life form was Therophytes with 89 species (43.68%), followed by Nanophanerophytes 26 species (12.62%), Megaphanerophytes 20 species (9.70%), Mesophanerophytes 19 species (9.22%), Chamaephytes 15 species (7.28%), Hemicryptophytes 15 species (7.28%), Geophytes 11 species (5.33%), Lianas 6 species (2.91%), Microphanerophytes 3 species (1.45%) and Neophytes with 1 species (0.48%). As for as leaf size concerned, Microphyll was the most prevalent leaf size with 98 species (47.80%), followed by Nanophyll 55 spp. (26.82%), Leptophyll 28 species (13.65%), Mesophyll 16 spp. (7.80%) and Megaphyll contributing with 8 species (3.90%). Study reflects the overall ecological scenario and may be beneficial as reference study for conservation and sustainable use of plants. (author)
F. N. Mendes
Full Text Available Abstract The buriti, Mauritia flexuosa, is the most common palm in Brazil, where it has considerable ecological and economic importance. However, few data are available on the phenology of the species, mainly in coastal restinga ecosystems. The present study monitored the reproductive phenology of M. flexuosa in the restinga of Barreirinhas, in the Brazilian Northeast, and investigated the relationship between phenophases and climatic variables. The presence/absence of flowers and fruits was recorded monthly in 25 individuals of each sex between August, 2009, and October, 2012. There was no difference in the phenology of male and female specimens, with flowering and fruiting occurring exclusively in the dry season. We believe that the specific abiotic characteristics of the study environment, such as the intense sunlight and availability of water in the soil, contribute to the reproductive success of M. flexuosa in the dry season, with consequent germination and establishment of seedlings occurring during the subsequent rainy season.
Full Text Available Abstract We analyzed the phenology of Ficus adhatodifolia Schott ex Spreng. (23 fig tree and F. eximia Schott (12 fig tree for 74 months in a remnant of seasonal semi-deciduous forest (23°27’S and 51°15’W, Southern Brazil and discussed their importance to frugivorous. Leaf drop, leaf flush, syconia production and dispersal were recorded. These phenophases occurred year-round, but seasonal peaks were recorded in both leaf phenophases for F. eximia and leaf flushing for F. adhatodifolia. Climatic variables analyzed were positively correlated with reproductive phenophases of F. adhatodifolia and negatively correlated with the vegetative phenophases of F. eximia. In despite of environmental seasonality, little seasonality in the phenology of two species was observed, especially in the reproductive phenology. Both species were important to frugivorous, but F. adhatodifolia can play a relevant role in the remnant.
Wenden, Bénédicte; Campoy, José Antonio; Lecourt, Julien; López Ortega, Gregorio; Blanke, Michael; Radičević, Sanja; Schüller, Elisabeth; Spornberger, Andreas; Christen, Danilo; Magein, Hugo; Giovannini, Daniela; Campillo, Carlos; Malchev, Svetoslav; Peris, José Miguel; Meland, Mekjell; Stehr, Rolf; Charlot, Gérard; Quero-García, José
Professional and scientific networks built around the production of sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) led to the collection of phenology data for a wide range of cultivars grown in experimental sites characterized by highly contrasted climatic conditions. We present a dataset of flowering and maturity dates, recorded each year for one tree when available, or the average of several trees for each cultivar, over a period of 37 years (1978-2015). Such a dataset is extremely valuable for characterizing the phenological response to climate change, and the plasticity of the different cultivars' behaviour under different environmental conditions. In addition, this dataset will support the development of predictive models for sweet cherry phenology exploitable at the continental scale, and will help anticipate breeding strategies in order to maintain and improve sweet cherry production in Europe.
Full Text Available Plants perform various vegetative and reproductive functions throughout the year in order to persist in their habitats. The study of these events including their timing and how the environment influences the timing of these events is known as phenology. This study of the timing of seasonal biological activities of plants is very important to know about plant’s survival and its reproductive success. The variation in the phenological activities is due to change in different abiotic conditions. This paper deals with the study of phenological activities like bud formation, flowering time, fruiting time, and seed formation for some leguminous plants of Amritsar, Punjab (a state in the northwest of India for three consecutive years from 2009 till 2011.
Wenden, Bénédicte; Campoy, José Antonio; Lecourt, Julien; López Ortega, Gregorio; Blanke, Michael; Radičević, Sanja; Schüller, Elisabeth; Spornberger, Andreas; Christen, Danilo; Magein, Hugo; Giovannini, Daniela; Campillo, Carlos; Malchev, Svetoslav; Peris, José Miguel; Meland, Mekjell; Stehr, Rolf; Charlot, Gérard; Quero-García, José
Professional and scientific networks built around the production of sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) led to the collection of phenology data for a wide range of cultivars grown in experimental sites characterized by highly contrasted climatic conditions. We present a dataset of flowering and maturity dates, recorded each year for one tree when available, or the average of several trees for each cultivar, over a period of 37 years (1978–2015). Such a dataset is extremely valuable for characterizing the phenological response to climate change, and the plasticity of the different cultivars’ behaviour under different environmental conditions. In addition, this dataset will support the development of predictive models for sweet cherry phenology exploitable at the continental scale, and will help anticipate breeding strategies in order to maintain and improve sweet cherry production in Europe. PMID:27922629
Davenport, John; Jones, T. Todd; Work, Thierry M.; Balazs, George H.
Leatherback turtles, Dermochelys coriacea, which have an irregular pink area on the crown of the head known as the pineal or ‘pink spot’, forage upon jellyfish in cool temperate waters along the western and eastern margins of the North Atlantic during the summer. Our study showed that the skeletal structures underlying the pink spot in juvenile and adult turtles are compatible with the idea of a pineal dosimeter function that would support recognition of environmental light stimuli. We interrogated an extensive turtle sightings database to elucidate the phenology of leatherback foraging during summer months around Great Britain and Ireland and compared the sightings with historical data for sea surface temperatures and day lengths to assess whether sea surface temperature or light periodicity/levels were likely abiotic triggers prompting foraging turtles to turn south and leave their feeding grounds at the end of the summe