WorldWideScience

Sample records for surface observations climatic

  1. Surface Observation Climatic Summaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-12-01

    FROK SOURLY OBSERVATIONS smsTICO N•IMER: 747880 S13MTIOR NAME: MACDILL AFB/ TAIPA FL PERIOD OF RECORD: AUG 80 - JUL 90 LST TO UPTC: + 5 MOMI*: SEP...AFB/ TAIPA FL PERIOD OF RECORD: AUG 80 - JUL 90 LST To UTC: + 5 MONTH: NOV HOURS: 15-17 °... o........° ..... ............ ........ .. o...OCCURRENCE OF CEILING VERSUS VISIBILITY UsAFrTAC, ASHEVILLE NC FROM BOURLY OBSERVATIONS STATION NUMBER: 747880 STATION mk4: MAcDILL AFB/ TAiPA FL PERIOD OF

  2. Observations. Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change. Chapter 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trenberth, K.E.; Jones, P.D.; Ambenje, P.; Bojariu, R.; Easterling, D.; Klein Tank, A.; Parker, D.; Rahimzadeh, F.; Renwick, J.A.; Rusticucci, M.; Soden, B.; Zhai, P.

    2007-09-15

    This chapter assesses the observed changes in surface and atmospheric climate, placing new observations and new analyses made during the past six years (since the Third Assessment Report TAR) in the context of the previous instrumental record. In previous IPCC reports, palaeo-observations from proxy data for the pre-instrumental past and observations from the ocean and ice domains were included within the same chapter. This helped the overall assessment of the consistency among the various variables and their synthesis into a coherent picture of change. A short synthesis and scrutiny of the consistency of all the observations is included here (see Section 3.9). In the TAR, surface temperature trends were examined from 1860 to 2000 globally, for 1901 to 2000 as maps and for three sub-periods (1910-1945, 1946-1975 and 1976-2000). The first and third sub-periods had rising temperatures, while the second sub-period had relatively stable global mean temperatures. The 1976 divide is the date of a widely acknowledged 'climate shift' and seems to mark a time when global mean temperatures began a discernible upward trend that has been at least partly attributed to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The picture prior to 1976 has essentially not changed and is therefore not repeated in detail here. However, it is more convenient to document the sub-period after 1979, rather than 1976, owing to the availability of increased and improved satellite data since then (in particular Television InfraRed Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) data) in association with the Global Weather Experiment (GWE) of 1979. The post-1979 period allows, for the first time, a global perspective on many fields of variables, such as precipitation, that was not previously available. The availability of high-quality data has led to a focus on the post-1978 period, although physically this new regime seems to have begun in 1976

  3. Determination of surface parameters and fluxes for climate studies from space observation. Methods, results and problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, F.; Seguin, B.

    Climate being the result of many interconnected processes, it can hardly be understood without models which describe these various processes as quantitatively as possible and define the parameters which are relevant for climate studies. Among those, surface processes and therefore surface parameters are now recognized to be of great importance. Some examples are discussed in the first part, showing the great interest to measure the relevant parameters on a multi-year basis, over large areas with sufficiently dense array and on a stable basis, in order to monitor climate changes or to study the impact on climate of the modifications of some relevant parameters which are analysed. Since space observations from satellites fulfil these requirements, it is clear that they will become very soon a fundamental tool for climate studies. Unfortunately, as it is discussed in the second part, satellites do measure only spectral radiances at the top of the atmosphere and the determination of the relevant surface parameters (or fluxes) from these radiances still raises many problems which have to be solved, although many progresses have already been made. The aim of this paper is therefore to review and discuss these problems and the various ways they have been tackled until now. The first part is devoted to an overview of what needs to be measured and why, while the existing methods for determining the most important surface parameters from space observations are presented in the second part where a particular attention is given to the theoretical and experimental validations of these methods, their limits and the problems still to be solved.

  4. Uncertainty in Land Cover observations and its impact on near surface climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgievski, Goran; Hagemann, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Land Cover (LC) and its bio-geo-physical feedbacks are important for the understanding of climate and its vulnerability to changes on the surface of the Earth. Recently ESA has published a new LC map derived by combining remotely sensed surface reflectance and ground-truth observations. For each grid-box at 300m resolution, an estimate of confidence is provided. This LC data set can be used in climate modelling to derive land surface boundary parameters for the respective Land Surface Model (LSM). However, the ESA LC classes are not directly suitable for LSMs, therefore they need to be converted into the model specific surface presentations. Due to different design and processes implemented in various climate models they might differ in the treatment of artificial, water bodies, ice, bare or vegetated surfaces. Nevertheless, usually vegetation distribution in models is presented by means of plant functional types (PFT), which is a classification system used to simplify vegetation representation and group different vegetation types according to their biophysical characteristics. The method of LC conversion into PFT is also called "cross-walking" (CW) procedure. The CW procedure is another source of uncertainty, since it depends on model design and processes implemented and resolved by LSMs. These two sources of uncertainty, (i) due to surface reflectance conversion into LC classes, (ii) due to CW procedure, have been studied by Hartley et al (2016) to investigate their impact on LSM state variables (albedo, evapotranspiration (ET) and primary productivity) by using three standalone LSMs. The present study is a follow up to that work and aims at quantifying the impact of these two uncertainties on climate simulations performed with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) using prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice. The main focus is on the terrestrial water cycle, but the impacts on surface albedo, wind patterns, 2m temperatures

  5. ClimoBase: Rouse Canadian Surface Observations of Weather, Climate, and Hydrological Variables, 1984-1998

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — ClimoBase is a collection of surface climate measurements collected in Northern Canada by Dr. Wayne Rouse between 1984 and 1998 in three locations: Churchill,...

  6. Assessment of clear sky radiative fluxes in CMIP5 climate models using surface observations from BSRN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, M.; Hakuba, M. Z.; Folini, D.; Ott, P.; Long, C. N.

    2017-12-01

    Clear sky fluxes in the latest generation of Global Climate Models (GCM) from CMIP5 still vary largely particularly at the Earth's surface, covering in their global means a range of 16 and 24 Wm-2 in the surface downward clear sky shortwave (SW) and longwave radiation, respectively. We assess these fluxes with monthly clear sky reference climatologies derived from more than 40 Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) sites based on Long and Ackermann (2000) and Hakuba et al. (2015). The comparison is complicated by the fact that the monthly SW clear sky BSRN reference climatologies are inferred from measurements under true cloud-free conditions, whereas the GCM clear sky fluxes are calculated continuously at every timestep solely by removing the clouds, yet otherwise keeping the prevailing atmospheric composition (e.g. water vapor, temperature, aerosols) during the cloudy conditions. This induces the risk of biases in the GCMs just due to the additional sampling of clear sky fluxes calculated under atmospheric conditions representative for cloudy situations. Thereby, a wet bias may be expected in the GCMs compared to the observational references, which may induce spurious low biases in the downward clear sky SW fluxes. To estimate the magnitude of these spurious biases in the available monthly mean fields from 40 CMIP5 models, we used their respective multi-century control runs, and searched therein for each month and each BSRN station the month with the lowest cloud cover. The deviations of the clear sky fluxes in this month from their long-term means have then be used as indicators of the magnitude of the abovementioned sampling biases and as correction factors for an appropriate comparison with the BSRN climatologies, individually applied for each model and BSRN site. The overall correction is on the order of 2 Wm-2. This revises our best estimate for the global mean surface downward SW clear sky radiation, previously at 249 Wm-2 infered from the GCM clear sky

  7. Observed climate change hotspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turco, M.; Palazzi, E.; Hardenberg, J.; Provenzale, A.

    2015-05-01

    We quantify climate change hotspots from observations, taking into account the differences in precipitation and temperature statistics (mean, variability, and extremes) between 1981-2010 and 1951-1980. Areas in the Amazon, the Sahel, tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and central eastern Asia emerge as primary observed hotspots. The main contributing factors are the global increase in mean temperatures, the intensification of extreme hot-season occurrence in low-latitude regions and the decrease of precipitation over central Africa. Temperature and precipitation variability have been substantially stable over the past decades, with only a few areas showing significant changes against the background climate variability. The regions identified from the observations are remarkably similar to those defined from projections of global climate models under a "business-as-usual" scenario, indicating that climate change hotspots are robust and persistent over time. These results provide a useful background to develop global policy decisions on adaptation and mitigation priorities over near-time horizons.

  8. NOAA's Ocean Climate Observation Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanitski, D.; Legler, D. M.

    2016-02-01

    Over the past 20+ years there has been remarkable progress in developing a global ocean observing system. Global in-situ observations of essential climate variables in the ice-free ocean from the surface down to 2000m depth are now routinely available to address the long-term observational requirements of forecast and modeling centers, international research programs, major scientific assessments, and decision-makers. NOAA contributes nearly half of the world's in-situ ocean observations. This presentation will review NOAA's Ocean Climate Observation contributions supporting more than a dozen arrays that make up the global ocean observing system (e.g., Argo, deep-ocean hydrography, surface drifters, tropical moored buoys, OceanSITES, GLOSS); data systems; and a suite of ocean products. The poster will describe the program's scope of activities and offer a chance for the community to review and discuss NOAA's international collaborations, technology evolution for observing, and implementation of OceanObs'09 plans.

  9. ClimoBase: Rouse Canadian Surface Observations of Weather, Climate, and Hydrological Variables, 1984-1998, Version 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ClimoBase is a collection of surface climate measurements collected in Northern Canada by Dr. Wayne Rouse between 1984 and 1998 in three locations: Churchill,...

  10. Climate in the glaciated central Peruvian Andes observed since 1921: Trends in maximum, minimum, mean and DTR surface air temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagos, P.; Mark, B. G.; McKenzie, J. M.; Baraer, M.; Wigmore, O.; Somers, L. D.; Ccasani, Y.

    2016-12-01

    With ongoing climate change, there is increasing stress on water resources in low-latitude glacierized catchments. Glacier and hydrologic modeling is needed for future river discharge prediction, but it requires historical river discharge, temperature and precipitation time series. In the present study, we identify significant long term trends in maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), mean temperature (Tm) and diurnal temperature range, based on the single longest climatic dataset recorded in the Central Peruvian Andes. The site, Huancayo, located in the rural area of the Mantaro valley, at 3350 m a.s.l., has a high quality climatic dataset recorded since 1921. Land surface air temperature has been recorded at an hourly time interval in some decades and at 7, 13 and 19 hours in another decades. Maximum and minimum temperature were recorded every day. The daily means were calculated from these observed values. The Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) defined as Tmax-Tmin, was also calculated from observed values. The data set we have analyzed contains daily, monthly, annual and decadal means for Tmax, Tmin, Tm and DTR for the period 1921-2015. We also calculated temperature anomalies relative to the 1961 - 1990 climate normal period, and use them to calculate monthly, annual and decadal trends. Monthly and annual means of Tmax and the other variables show substantial interannual and interdecadal variability. There are clear long-term trends, with periods showing significant increases and decreases. Hence, we calculated the long-term trends for the last 35 (1981-2015), 65 (1951-2015) and 85 (1931-2015) year intervals. Trends in oC per decade for Tmax calculated with the annual mean time series are 0.223 (1981-2015), 0.402 (1951-2015) and 0.161 (1931-2015); for Tmin for the same periods are 0.150, 0.013 and 0.001; for Tm 0.222, 0.127 and 0.081 and; for DTR 0.072, 0.228, and 0.159 respectably.

  11. Ocean Observations of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Don

    2016-01-01

    The ocean influences climate by storing and transporting large amounts of heat, freshwater, and carbon, and exchanging these properties with the atmosphere. About 93% of the excess heat energy stored by the earth over the last 50 years is found in the ocean. More than three quarters of the total exchange of water between the atmosphere and the earth's surface through evaporation and precipitation takes place over the oceans. The ocean contains 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and is at present acting to slow the rate of climate change by absorbing one quarter of human emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, cement production, deforestation and other land use change.Here I summarize the observational evidence of change in the ocean, with an emphasis on basin- and global-scale changes relevant to climate. These include: changes in subsurface ocean temperature and heat content, evidence for regional changes in ocean salinity and their link to changes in evaporation and precipitation over the oceans, evidence of variability and change of ocean current patterns relevant to climate, observations of sea level change and predictions over the next century, and biogeochemical changes in the ocean, including ocean acidification.

  12. Borehole temperatures, climate change and the pre-observational surface air temperature mean: allowance for hydraulic conditions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bodri, L.; Čermák, Vladimír

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 45, č. 4 (2005), s. 265-276 ISSN 0921-8181 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA3012005; GA ČR GA205/03/0998; GA AV ČR KSK3046108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3012916 Keywords : climate change * global warming * surface air temperature Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.223, year: 2005

  13. Uruguay - Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface weather observation forms for 26 stations in Uruguay. Period of record 1896-2005, with two to eight observations per day. Files created through a...

  14. Mexico - Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Mexican Surface Daily Observations taken at 94 observatories located throughout Mexico, beginning in 1872 and going up through 1981. The data resided on paper...

  15. Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Surface Weather Observation Collection consists primarily of hourly, synoptic, daily, and monthly forms submitted to the archive by the National Weather Service...

  16. Land Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — METAR is the international standard code format for hourly surface weather observations. The acronym roughly translates from French as Aviation Routine Weather...

  17. Surface Weather Observations Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Weather Observation 1001 Forms is a set of historical manuscript records for the period 1893-1948. The collection includes two very similar form types: Form...

  18. On the ability of RegCM4 regional climate model to simulate surface solar radiation patterns over Europe: an assessment using satellite-based observations

    OpenAIRE

    G. Alexandri; A. K. Georgoulias; P. Zanis; E. Katragkou; A. Tsikerdekis; K. Kourtidis; C. Meleti

    2015-01-01

    In this work, we assess the ability of RegCM4 regional climate model to simulate surface solar radiation (SSR) patterns over Europe. A decadal RegCM4 run (2000–2009) was implemented and evaluated against satellite-based observations from the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) showing that the model simulates adequately the SSR patterns over the region. The bias between RegCM4 and CM SAF is +1.54 % for MFG (Meteosat First Generation...

  19. On the ability of RegCM4 regional climate model to simulate surface solar radiation patterns over Europe: an assessment using satellite-based observations

    OpenAIRE

    Alexandri, G.; Georgoulias, A. K.; Zanis, P.; Katragkou, E.; Tsikerdekis, A.; Kourtidis, K.; Meleti, C.

    2015-01-01

    In this work, we assess the ability of RegCM4 regional climate model to simulate surface solar radiation (SSR) patterns over Europe. A decadal RegCM4 run (2000–2009) was implemented and evaluated against satellite-based observations from the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF), showing that the model simulates adequately the SSR patterns over the region. The SSR bias between RegCM4 and CM SAF is +1.5 % for MFG (Meteosat First Genera...

  20. Evaluating Climate Models: Should We Use Weather or Climate Observations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oglesby, R. J.; Rowe, C. M.; Maasch, K. A.; Erickson, D. J.; Hays, C.

    2009-12-01

    Calling the numerical models that we use for simulations of climate change 'climate models' is a bit of a misnomer. These 'general circulation models' (GCMs, AKA global climate models) and their cousins the 'regional climate models' (RCMs) are actually physically-based weather simulators. That is, these models simulate, either globally or locally, daily weather patterns in response to some change in forcing or boundary condition. These simulated weather patterns are then aggregated into climate statistics, very much as we aggregate observations into 'real climate statistics'. Traditionally, the output of GCMs has been evaluated using climate statistics, as opposed to their ability to simulate realistic daily weather observations. At the coarse global scale this may be a reasonable approach, however, as RCM's downscale to increasingly higher resolutions, the conjunction between weather and climate becomes more problematic. We present results from a series of present-day climate simulations using the WRF ARW for domains that cover North America, much of Latin America, and South Asia. The basic domains are at a 12 km resolution, but several inner domains at 4 km have also been simulated. These include regions of complex topography in Mexico, Colombia, Peru, and Sri Lanka, as well as a region of low topography and fairly homogeneous land surface type (the U.S. Great Plains). Model evaluations are performed using standard climate analyses (e.g., reanalyses; NCDC data) but also using time series of daily station observations. Preliminary results suggest little difference in the assessment of long-term mean quantities, but the variability on seasonal and interannual timescales is better described. Furthermore, the value-added by using daily weather observations as an evaluation tool increases with the model resolution.

  1. Observed trends in climate over Southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Davis-Reddy, Claire L

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available greater change than others. This chapter presents: An analysis of observed trends in land- and sea-surface temperatures as well as rainfall across southern Africa over the last five decades using gridded climate products (CRU TEMv4, CRU TS 3.2, and Had...

  2. Surface Weather Observations Hourly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Standard hourly observations taken at Weather Bureau/National Weather Service offices and airports throughout the United States. Hourly observations began during the...

  3. Surface Weather Observing Manuals

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Manuals and instructions for taking weather observations. Includes the annual Weather Bureau 'Instructions for Preparing Meteorological Forms...' and early airways...

  4. On the ability of RegCM4 regional climate model to simulate surface solar radiation patterns over Europe: an assessment using satellite-based observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Alexandri

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we assess the ability of RegCM4 regional climate model to simulate surface solar radiation (SSR patterns over Europe. A decadal RegCM4 run (2000–2009 was implemented and evaluated against satellite-based observations from the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF, showing that the model simulates adequately the SSR patterns over the region. The SSR bias between RegCM4 and CM SAF is +1.5 % for MFG (Meteosat First Generation and +3.3 % for MSG (Meteosat Second Generation observations. The relative contribution of parameters that determine the transmission of solar radiation within the atmosphere to the deviation appearing between RegCM4 and CM SAF SSR is also examined. Cloud macrophysical and microphysical properties such as cloud fractional cover (CFC, cloud optical thickness (COT and cloud effective radius (Re from RegCM4 are evaluated against data from CM SAF. Generally, RegCM4 underestimates CFC by 24.3 % and Re for liquid/ice clouds by 36.1 %/28.3 % and overestimates COT by 4.3 %. The same procedure is repeated for aerosol optical properties such as aerosol optical depth (AOD, asymmetry factor (ASY and single-scattering albedo (SSA, as well as other parameters, including surface broadband albedo (ALB and water vapor amount (WV, using data from MACv1 aerosol climatology, from CERES satellite sensors and from ERA-Interim reanalysis. It is shown here that the good agreement between RegCM4 and satellite-based SSR observations can be partially attributed to counteracting effects among the above mentioned parameters. The potential contribution of each parameter to the RegCM4–CM SAF SSR deviations is estimated with the combined use of the aforementioned data and a radiative transfer model (SBDART. CFC, COT and AOD are the major determinants of these deviations on a monthly basis; however, the other parameters also play an important role for specific regions and seasons. Overall, for the European domain, CFC

  5. Estimating carbon flux phenology with satellite-derived land surface phenology and climate drivers for different biomes: a synthesis of AmeriFlux observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Wenquan; Chen, Guangsheng; Jiang, Nan; Liu, Jianhong; Mou, Minjie

    2013-01-01

    Carbon Flux Phenology (CFP) can affect the interannual variation in Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. In this study, we proposed a methodology to estimate CFP metrics with satellite-derived Land Surface Phenology (LSP) metrics and climate drivers for 4 biomes (i.e., deciduous broadleaf forest, evergreen needleleaf forest, grasslands and croplands), using 159 site-years of NEE and climate data from 32 AmeriFlux sites and MODIS vegetation index time-series data. LSP metrics combined with optimal climate drivers can explain the variability in Start of Carbon Uptake (SCU) by more than 70% and End of Carbon Uptake (ECU) by more than 60%. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the estimations was within 8.5 days for both SCU and ECU. The estimation performance for this methodology was primarily dependent on the optimal combination of the LSP retrieval methods, the explanatory climate drivers, the biome types, and the specific CFP metric. This methodology has a potential for allowing extrapolation of CFP metrics for biomes with a distinct and detectable seasonal cycle over large areas, based on synoptic multi-temporal optical satellite data and climate data.

  6. Estimating carbon flux phenology with satellite-derived land surface phenology and climate drivers for different biomes: a synthesis of AmeriFlux observations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenquan Zhu

    Full Text Available Carbon Flux Phenology (CFP can affect the interannual variation in Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. In this study, we proposed a methodology to estimate CFP metrics with satellite-derived Land Surface Phenology (LSP metrics and climate drivers for 4 biomes (i.e., deciduous broadleaf forest, evergreen needleleaf forest, grasslands and croplands, using 159 site-years of NEE and climate data from 32 AmeriFlux sites and MODIS vegetation index time-series data. LSP metrics combined with optimal climate drivers can explain the variability in Start of Carbon Uptake (SCU by more than 70% and End of Carbon Uptake (ECU by more than 60%. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE of the estimations was within 8.5 days for both SCU and ECU. The estimation performance for this methodology was primarily dependent on the optimal combination of the LSP retrieval methods, the explanatory climate drivers, the biome types, and the specific CFP metric. This methodology has a potential for allowing extrapolation of CFP metrics for biomes with a distinct and detectable seasonal cycle over large areas, based on synoptic multi-temporal optical satellite data and climate data.

  7. Measurements based dynamic climate observer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chaabene, Maher [The High Institute of Technological Studies (ISET), Sfax (Tunisia); Unite de Commande de Machines et Reseaux de Puissance CMERP-ENIS, Tunisia, Rte Mahdia Km 2, BP88A, ElBustan 3099 Sfax (Tunisia)

    2008-09-15

    This paper introduces a dynamic prediction of solar radiation and ambient temperature. Medium term prediction is based on climatic parameters behaviours during the day before and on time distribution models. As for short term prediction, it is ensured by an ARMA predictor using Kalman filter. Herein, we describe our method and present prediction results. Validation is based on measures taken during the year 2005 in the north of Tunisia. The work effectiveness is illustrated by a short term and medium term prediction of the electric energy produced by a 1 KWp photovoltaic panel (PVP) installed at the Energy and Thermal Research Centre (CRTEn) in the north of Tunisia. Since our work delivers accurate climatic parameters prediction, the obtained results can be easily adapted to predict any other solar conversion system output. (author)

  8. Surface Meteorological Observation System (SMOS) Handbook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ritsche, MT

    2008-03-01

    The Surface Meteorological Observation System (SMOS) mostly uses conventional in situ sensors to obtain 1-minute, 30-minute, and 1440-minute (daily) averages of surface wind speed, wind direction, air temperature, relative humidity (RH), barometric pressure, and precipitation at the Central Facility and many of the extended facilities of the Southern Great Plains (SGP) climate research site. The SMOSs are not calibrated as systems. The sensors and the data logger (which includes the analog-to-digital converter, or A/D) are calibrated separately. All systems are installed using components that have a current calibration. SMOSs have not been installed at extended facilities located within about 10 km of existing surface meteorological stations, such as those of the Oklahoma Mesonet. The Surface Meteorological Observation Systems are used to create climatology for each particular location, and to verify the output of numerical weather forecast and other model output. They are also used to “ground-truth” other remote sensing equipment.

  9. The importance of accurate glacier albedo for estimates of surface mass balance on Vatnajökull: evaluating the surface energy budget in a regional climate model with automatic weather station observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steffensen Schmidt, Louise; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Guðmundsson, Sverrir; Langen, Peter L.; Pálsson, Finnur; Mottram, Ruth; Gascoin, Simon; Björnsson, Helgi

    2017-07-01

    A simulation of the surface climate of Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland, carried out with the regional climate model HIRHAM5 for the period 1980-2014, is used to estimate the evolution of the glacier surface mass balance (SMB). This simulation uses a new snow albedo parameterization that allows albedo to exponentially decay with time and is surface temperature dependent. The albedo scheme utilizes a new background map of the ice albedo created from observed MODIS data. The simulation is evaluated against observed daily values of weather parameters from five automatic weather stations (AWSs) from the period 2001-2014, as well as in situ SMB measurements from the period 1995-2014. The model agrees well with observations at the AWS sites, albeit with a general underestimation of the net radiation. This is due to an underestimation of the incoming radiation and a general overestimation of the albedo. The average modelled albedo is overestimated in the ablation zone, which we attribute to an overestimation of the thickness of the snow layer and not taking the surface darkening from dirt and volcanic ash deposition during dust storms and volcanic eruptions into account. A comparison with the specific summer, winter, and net mass balance for the whole of Vatnajökull (1995-2014) shows a good overall fit during the summer, with a small mass balance underestimation of 0.04 m w.e. on average, whereas the winter mass balance is overestimated by on average 0.5 m w.e. due to too large precipitation at the highest areas of the ice cap. A simple correction of the accumulation at the highest points of the glacier reduces this to 0.15 m w.e. Here, we use HIRHAM5 to simulate the evolution of the SMB of Vatnajökull for the period 1981-2014 and show that the model provides a reasonable representation of the SMB for this period. However, a major source of uncertainty in the representation of the SMB is the representation of the albedo, and processes currently not accounted for in RCMs

  10. The importance of accurate glacier albedo for estimates of surface mass balance on Vatnajökull: evaluating the surface energy budget in a regional climate model with automatic weather station observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. S. Schmidt

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A simulation of the surface climate of Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland, carried out with the regional climate model HIRHAM5 for the period 1980–2014, is used to estimate the evolution of the glacier surface mass balance (SMB. This simulation uses a new snow albedo parameterization that allows albedo to exponentially decay with time and is surface temperature dependent. The albedo scheme utilizes a new background map of the ice albedo created from observed MODIS data. The simulation is evaluated against observed daily values of weather parameters from five automatic weather stations (AWSs from the period 2001–2014, as well as in situ SMB measurements from the period 1995–2014. The model agrees well with observations at the AWS sites, albeit with a general underestimation of the net radiation. This is due to an underestimation of the incoming radiation and a general overestimation of the albedo. The average modelled albedo is overestimated in the ablation zone, which we attribute to an overestimation of the thickness of the snow layer and not taking the surface darkening from dirt and volcanic ash deposition during dust storms and volcanic eruptions into account. A comparison with the specific summer, winter, and net mass balance for the whole of Vatnajökull (1995–2014 shows a good overall fit during the summer, with a small mass balance underestimation of 0.04 m w.e. on average, whereas the winter mass balance is overestimated by on average 0.5 m w.e. due to too large precipitation at the highest areas of the ice cap. A simple correction of the accumulation at the highest points of the glacier reduces this to 0.15 m w.e. Here, we use HIRHAM5 to simulate the evolution of the SMB of Vatnajökull for the period 1981–2014 and show that the model provides a reasonable representation of the SMB for this period. However, a major source of uncertainty in the representation of the SMB is the representation of the albedo, and processes

  11. Observing Climate with Satellites - Are We on Thin Ice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Compton

    2012-01-01

    The Earth s climate is determined by irradiance from the Sun and properties of the atmosphere, oceans, and land that determine the reflection, absorption, and emission of energy within our atmosphere and at the Earth s surface. Since the 1970s, Earth-viewing satellites have complimented non-satellite geophysical observations with consistent, quantitative, and spatially-continuous measurements that have led to an unprecedented understanding of the Earth s climate system. I will describe the Earth s climate system as elaborated by satellite and in situ observations, review arguments against global warming, and show the convergence of evidence for human-caused warming of our planet.

  12. The Impact of Ocean Observations in Seasonal Climate Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rienecker, Michele; Keppenne, Christian; Kovach, Robin; Marshak, Jelena

    2010-01-01

    The ocean provides the most significant memory for the climate system. Hence, a critical element in climate forecasting with coupled models is the initialization of the ocean with states from an ocean data assimilation system. Remotely-sensed ocean surface fields (e.g., sea surface topography, SST, winds) are now available for extensive periods and have been used to constrain ocean models to provide a record of climate variations. Since the ocean is virtually opaque to electromagnetic radiation, the assimilation of these satellite data is essential to extracting the maximum information content. More recently, the Argo drifters have provided unprecedented sampling of the subsurface temperature and salinity. Although the duration of this observation set has been too short to provide solid statistical evidence of its impact, there are indications that Argo improves the forecast skill of coupled systems. This presentation will address the impact these different observations have had on seasonal climate predictions with the GMAO's coupled model.

  13. The leading mode of observed and CMIP5 ENSO-residual sea surface temperatures and associated changes in Indo-Pacific climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell. Andrew,

    2015-01-01

    SSTs in the western Pacific Ocean have tracked closely with CMIP5 simulations despite recent hiatus cooling in the eastern Pacific. This paper quantifies these similarities and associated circulation and precipitation variations using the first global 1900–2012 ENSO-residual empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of 35 variables: observed SSTs; 28 CMIP5 SST simulations; Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) 25-, 70-, and 171-m ocean temperatures and sea surface heights (SSHs); and Twentieth Century Reanalysis, version 2 (20CRv2), surface winds and precipitation.

  14. Observations that polar climate modelers use and want

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kay, J. E.; de Boer, G.; Hunke, E. C.; Bailey, D. A.; Schneider, D. P.

    2012-12-01

    Observations are essential for motivating and establishing improvement in the representation of polar processes within climate models. We believe that explicitly documenting the current methods used to develop and evaluate climate models with observations will help inform and improve collaborations between the observational and climate modeling communities. As such, we will present the current strategy of the Polar Climate Working Group (PCWG) to evaluate polar processes within Community Earth System Model (CESM) using observations. Our presentation will focus primarily on PCWG evaluation of atmospheric, sea ice, and surface oceanic processes. In the future, we hope to expand to include land surface, deep ocean, and biogeochemical observations. We hope our presentation, and a related working document developed by the PCWG (https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zt0xParsFeMYhlihfxVJhS3D5nEcKb8A41JH0G1Ic-E/edit) inspires new and useful interactions that lead to improved climate model representation of polar processes relevant to polar climate.

  15. SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS FOR EDUCATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ILONA PAJTÓK-TARI

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper surveys the key statements of the IPCC (2007 Reportbased mainly on the satellite-borne observations to support teaching climatechange and geography by using the potential of this technology. In theIntroduction we briefly specify the potential and the constraints of remote sensing.Next the key climate variables for indicating the changes are surveyed. Snow andsea-ice changes are displayed as examples for these applications. Testing theclimate models is a two-sided task involving satellites, as well. Validation of theability of reconstructing the present climate is the one side of the coin, whereassensitivity of the climate system is another key task, leading to consequences onthe reality of the projected changes. Finally some concluding remarks arecompiled, including a few ideas on the ways how these approaches can be appliedfor education of climate change.

  16. Arctic Climate Variability and Trends from Satellite Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuanji Wang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Arctic climate has been changing rapidly since the 1980s. This work shows distinctly different patterns of change in winter, spring, and summer for cloud fraction and surface temperature. Satellite observations over 1982–2004 have shown that the Arctic has warmed up and become cloudier in spring and summer, but cooled down and become less cloudy in winter. The annual mean surface temperature has increased at a rate of 0.34°C per decade. The decadal rates of cloud fraction trends are −3.4%, 2.3%, and 0.5% in winter, spring, and summer, respectively. Correspondingly, annually averaged surface albedo has decreased at a decadal rate of −3.2%. On the annual average, the trend of cloud forcing at the surface is −2.11 W/m2 per decade, indicating a damping effect on the surface warming by clouds. The decreasing sea ice albedo and surface warming tend to modulate cloud radiative cooling effect in spring and summer. Arctic sea ice has also declined substantially with decadal rates of −8%, −5%, and −15% in sea ice extent, thickness, and volume, respectively. Significant correlations between surface temperature anomalies and climate indices, especially the Arctic Oscillation (AO index, exist over some areas, implying linkages between global climate change and Arctic climate change.

  17. Satellite observations of weather and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellogg, W. W.

    1974-01-01

    The SEASAT-A program is viewed as a new way to obtain atmospheric observations for weather and climatic studies in the framework of the Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP). Total information derived from SEASAT-A sensor package provides a synoptic picture of the upper parts of the world's oceans as a prerequisite to the development of dynamic ocean models and combined ocean/atmospheric models for weather forecasting requirements.

  18. Surface Weather Observation 1001 Forms (Keyed)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — In order to fill in the observation gap prior to the time when commercial aviation began in the U.S., The NCDC Climate Data Modernization Program (CDMP) retrieved...

  19. Far-infrared surface emissivity and climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldman, Daniel R; Collins, William D; Pincus, Robert; Huang, Xianglei; Chen, Xiuhong

    2014-11-18

    Presently, there are no global measurement constraints on the surface emissivity at wavelengths longer than 15 μm, even though this surface property in this far-IR region has a direct impact on the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and infrared cooling rates where the column precipitable water vapor (PWV) is less than 1 mm. Such dry conditions are common for high-altitude and high-latitude locations, with the potential for modeled climate to be impacted by uncertain surface characteristics. This paper explores the sensitivity of instantaneous OLR and cooling rates to changes in far-IR surface emissivity and how this unconstrained property impacts climate model projections. At high latitudes and altitudes, a 0.05 change in emissivity due to mineralogy and snow grain size can cause a 1.8-2.0 W m(-2) difference in the instantaneous clear-sky OLR. A variety of radiative transfer techniques have been used to model the far-IR spectral emissivities of surface types defined by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program. Incorporating these far-IR surface emissivities into the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario of the Community Earth System Model leads to discernible changes in the spatial patterns of surface temperature, OLR, and frozen surface extent. The model results differ at high latitudes by as much as 2°K, 10 W m(-2), and 15%, respectively, after only 25 y of integration. Additionally, the calculated difference in far-IR emissivity between ocean and sea ice of between 0.1 and 0.2, suggests the potential for a far-IR positive feedback for polar climate change.

  20. GODAE, SFCOBS - Surface Temperature Observations, 1998-present

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — GODAE, SFCOBS - Surface Temperature Observations: Ship, fixed/drifting buoy, and CMAN in-situ surface temperature. Global Telecommunication System (GTS) Data. The...

  1. Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henson, Stephanie A; Beaulieu, Claudie; Lampitt, Richard

    2016-04-01

    Understanding the influence of anthropogenic forcing on the marine biosphere is a high priority. Climate change-driven trends need to be accurately assessed and detected in a timely manner. As part of the effort towards detection of long-term trends, a network of ocean observatories and time series stations provide high quality data for a number of key parameters, such as pH, oxygen concentration or primary production (PP). Here, we use an ensemble of global coupled climate models to assess the temporal and spatial scales over which observations of eight biogeochemically relevant variables must be made to robustly detect a long-term trend. We find that, as a global average, continuous time series are required for between 14 (pH) and 32 (PP) years to distinguish a climate change trend from natural variability. Regional differences are extensive, with low latitudes and the Arctic generally needing shorter time series (ocean surface. Our results present a quantitative framework for assessing the adequacy of current and future ocean observing networks for detection and monitoring of climate change-driven responses in the marine ecosystem. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Global Mercury Observation System (GMOS) surface observation data.

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — GMOS global surface elemental mercury (Hg0) observations from 2013 & 2014. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Sprovieri, F., N. Pirrone,...

  3. Future local climate unlike currently observed anywhere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahinden, Fabienne; Fischer, Erich M.; Knutti, Reto

    2017-08-01

    The concept of spatial climate analogs, that is identifying a place with a present-day climate similar to the projections of a place of interest, is a promising method for visualizing and communicating possible effects of climate change. We show that when accounting for seasonal cycles of both temperature and precipitation, it is impossible to find good analogs for projections at many places across the world. For substantial land fractions, primarily in the tropics and subtropics, there are no analogs anywhere with current seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation matching their projected future conditions. This implies that these places experience the emergence of novel climates. For 1.5 °C global warming about 15% and for 2 °C warming about 21% of the global land is projected to experience novel climates, whereas for a 4 °C warming the corresponding novel climates may emerge on more than a third of the global land fraction. Similar fractions of today’s climates, mainly found in the tropics, subtropics and polar north, are anticipated to disappear in the future. Note that the exact quantification of the land fraction is sensitive to the threshold selection. Novel and disappearing climates may have serious consequences for impacts that are sensitive to the full seasonal cycle of temperature and precipitation. For individual seasons, however, spatial analogs may still be a powerful tool for climate change communication.

  4. Designing the Climate Observing System of the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Ramaswamy, V.; Abbott, Mark; Ackerman, Thomas P.; Atlas, Robert; Brasseur, Guy; Bruhwiler, Lori; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Butler, James H.; Clack, Christopher T. M.; Cooke, Roger; Cucurull, Lidia; Davis, Sean M.; English, Jason M.; Fahey, David W.; Fine, Steven S.; Lazo, Jeffrey K.; Liang, Shunlin; Loeb, Norman G.; Rignot, Eric; Soden, Brian; Stanitski, Diane; Stephens, Graeme; Tapley, Byron D.; Thompson, Anne M.; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Wuebbles, Donald

    2018-01-01

    Climate observations are needed to address a large range of important societal issues including sea level rise, droughts, floods, extreme heat events, food security, and freshwater availability in the coming decades. Past, targeted investments in specific climate questions have resulted in tremendous improvements in issues important to human health, security, and infrastructure. However, the current climate observing system was not planned in a comprehensive, focused manner required to adequately address the full range of climate needs. A potential approach to planning the observing system of the future is presented in this article. First, this article proposes that priority be given to the most critical needs as identified within the World Climate Research Program as Grand Challenges. These currently include seven important topics: melting ice and global consequences; clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity; carbon feedbacks in the climate system; understanding and predicting weather and climate extremes; water for the food baskets of the world; regional sea-level change and coastal impacts; and near-term climate prediction. For each Grand Challenge, observations are needed for long-term monitoring, process studies and forecasting capabilities. Second, objective evaluations of proposed observing systems, including satellites, ground-based and in situ observations as well as potentially new, unidentified observational approaches, can quantify the ability to address these climate priorities. And third, investments in effective climate observations will be economically important as they will offer a magnified return on investment that justifies a far greater development of observations to serve society's needs.

  5. Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willett, Katharine M; Gillett, Nathan P; Jones, Philip D; Thorne, Peter W

    2007-10-11

    Water vapour is the most important contributor to the natural greenhouse effect, and the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere is expected to increase under conditions of greenhouse-gas-induced warming, leading to a significant feedback on anthropogenic climate change. Theoretical and modelling studies predict that relative humidity will remain approximately constant at the global scale as the climate warms, leading to an increase in specific humidity. Although significant increases in surface specific humidity have been identified in several regions, and on the global scale in non-homogenized data, it has not been shown whether these changes are due to natural or human influences on climate. Here we use a new quality-controlled and homogenized gridded observational data set of surface humidity, with output from a coupled climate model, to identify and explore the causes of changes in surface specific humidity over the late twentieth century. We identify a significant global-scale increase in surface specific humidity that is attributable mainly to human influence. Specific humidity is found to have increased in response to rising temperatures, with relative humidity remaining approximately constant. These changes may have important implications, because atmospheric humidity is a key variable in determining the geographical distribution and maximum intensity of precipitation, the potential maximum intensity of tropical cyclones, and human heat stress, and has important effects on the biosphere and surface hydrology.

  6. Köppen climate types in observed and simulated climates

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kalvová, J.; Halenka, T.; Bezpalcová, K.; Nemešová, Ivana

    2003-01-01

    Roč. 47, - (2003), s. 185-202 ISSN 0039-3169 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/99/1561; GA AV ČR IAA3042903; GA MŽP SJ/740/1/00 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3042911 Keywords : Köppen climate classification * general circulation models * ECHAM4 * HadCM2 * climate projections Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.426, year: 2003

  7. Observation of gliding arc surface treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kusano, Yukihiro; Zhu, Jiajian; Ehn, A.

    2015-01-01

    . Water contact angle measurements indicate that the treatment uniformity improves significantly when the AC gliding arc is tilted to the polymer surface. Thickness reduction of the gas boundary layer, explaining the improvement of surface treatment, by the ultrasonic irradiation was directly observed...... surfaces. A gap was observed between the polymer surface and the luminous region of the plasma column, indicating the existence of a gas boundary layer. The thickness of the gas boundary layer is smaller at higher gas flow-rates or with ultrasonic irradiation to the AC gliding arc and the polymer surface......An alternating current (AC) gliding arc can be conveniently operated at atmospheric pressure and efficiently elongated into the ambient air by an air flow and thus is useful for surface modification. A high speed camera was used to capture dynamics of the AC gliding arc in the presence of polymer...

  8. Surface Observations from Punta Arenas, Chile

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Observations from Punta Arenas, in extreme southern Chile. WMO station ID 85934. Period of record 1896-1954. The original forms were scanned at the Museo...

  9. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hansen, G.E.

    2015-01-01

    Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change Gerrit Hansen Global climate change is unequivocal, and greenhouse gas emissions continue rising despite international mitigation efforts. Hence whether and to what extent the impacts of human induced climate change are

  10. Carbon cycle observations: gaps threaten climate mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard Birdsey; Nick Bates; MIke Behrenfeld; Kenneth Davis; Scott C. Doney; Richard Feely; Dennis Hansell; Linda Heath; et al.

    2009-01-01

    Successful management of carbon dioxide (CO2) requires robust and sustained carbon cycle observations. Yet key elements of a national observation network are lacking or at risk. A U.S. National Research Council review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program earlier this year highlighted the critical need for a U.S. climate observing system to...

  11. Modelling and observing urban climate in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Hove, B.; Steeneveld, G.J.; Heusinkveld, B.; Holtslag, B.; Jacobs, C.; Ter Maat, H.; Elbers, J.; Moors, E.

    2011-06-01

    The main aims of the present study are: (1) to evaluate the performance of two well-known mesoscale NWP (numerical weather prediction) models coupled to a UCM (Urban Canopy Models), and (2) to develop a proper measurement strategy for obtaining meteorological data that can be used in model evaluation studies. We choose the mesoscale models WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) and RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System), respectively, because the partners in the present project have a large expertise with respect to these models. In addition WRF and RAMS have been successfully used in the meteorology and climate research communities for various purposes, including weather prediction and land-atmosphere interaction research. Recently, state-of-the-art UCM's were embedded within the land surface scheme of the respective models, in order to better represent the exchange of heat, momentum, and water vapour in the urban environment. Key questions addressed here are: What is the general model performance with respect to the urban environment?; How can useful and observational data be obtained that allow sensible validation and further parameterization of the models?; and Can the models be easily modified to simulate the urban climate under Dutch climatic conditions, urban configuration and morphology? Chapter 2 reviews the available Urban Canopy Models; we discuss their theoretical basis, the different representations of the urban environment, the required input and the output. Much of the information was obtained from the Urban Surface Energy Balance: Land Surface Scheme Comparison project (PILPS URBAN, PILPS stands for Project for Inter-comparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes). This project started in March 2008 and was coordinated by the Department of Geography, King's College London. In order to test the performance of our models we participated in this project. Chapter 3 discusses the main results of the first phase of PILPS URBAN. A first

  12. Aerosol Observing System Surface Meteorology (AOSMET) Instrument Handbook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kyrouac, J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-04-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility Aerosol Observing System (AOS) surface meteorology instrument is an ancillary sensor that provides temperature, relative humidity, pressure, wind speed and direction, and precipitation data relevant to the AOS. It consists of a Vaisala WXT520 Weather Transmitter mounted on top of the AOS aerosol inlet, at a height of approximately 10 meters.

  13. Challenges of coordinating global climate observations - Role of satellites in climate monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, C.

    2017-12-01

    Global observation of the Earth's atmosphere, ocean and land is essential for identifying climate variability and change, and for understanding their causes. Observation also provides data that are fundamental for evaluating, refining and initializing the models that predict how the climate system will vary over the months and seasons ahead, and that project how climate will change in the longer term under different assumptions concerning greenhouse gas emissions and other human influences. Long-term observational records have enabled the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to deliver the message that warming of the global climate system is unequivocal. As the Earth's climate enters a new era, in which it is forced by human activities, as well as natural processes, it is critically important to sustain an observing system capable of detecting and documenting global climate variability and change over long periods of time. High-quality climate observations are required to assess the present state of the ocean, cryosphere, atmosphere and land and place them in context with the past. The global observing system for climate is not a single, centrally managed observing system. Rather, it is a composite "system of systems" comprising a set of climate-relevant observing, data-management, product-generation and data-distribution systems. Data from satellites underpin many of the Essential Climate Variables(ECVs), and their historic and contemporary archives are a key part of the global climate observing system. In general, the ECVs will be provided in the form of climate data records that are created by processing and archiving time series of satellite and in situ measurements. Early satellite data records are very valuable because they provide unique observations in many regions which were not otherwise observed during the 1970s and which can be assimilated in atmospheric reanalyses and so extend the satellite climate data records back in time.

  14. Documenting observed climate variations and changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karl, T.R.

    1994-01-01

    Evidence suggests that scientists are still incapable of resolving many characteristics of long-term environmental variation. This problem is especially chronic with respect to data from operational multipurpose monitoring systems, which are critical to documenting long-term climate change. Several recurring problems can be attributed to inadequate data quality and to continuity, communication systems, and data management. These problems are unlikely to be resolved until mechanisms are instituted and implemented to establish direct linkages between operational monitoring systems and the requirements of the United States Global Climate Research Program (USGCRP). A strong national commitment is required. The challenge is clear: ensure that operational single and multiple use monitoring systems of special interest to climate change deliver data of sufficient quality, homogeneity, and continuity to document, understand, and predict global change and its impact on humans and vice versa. If this challenge is not met now, the ability to detect global environmental changes in the future will be seriously compromised. 48 refs., 22 figs., 1 tab

  15. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Observed Climate Change Impacts Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessement Report (AR4) Observed Climate Change Impacts Database contains observed responses to climate...

  16. Observations of climate change among subsistence-oriented communities around the world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savo, V.; Lepofsky, D.; Benner, J. P.; Kohfeld, K. E.; Bailey, J.; Lertzman, K.

    2016-05-01

    The study of climate change has been based strongly on data collected from instruments, but how local people perceive such changes remains poorly quantified. We conducted a meta-analysis of climatic changes observed by subsistence-oriented communities. Our review of 10,660 observations from 2,230 localities in 137 countries shows that increases in temperature and changes in seasonality and rainfall patterns are widespread (~70% of localities across 122 countries). Observations of increased temperature show patterns consistent with simulated trends in surface air temperature taken from the ensemble average of CMIP5 models, for the period 1955-2005. Secondary impacts of climatic changes on both wild and domesticated plants and animals are extensive and threaten the food security of subsistence-oriented communities. Collectively, our results suggest that climate change is having profound disruptive effects at local levels and that local observations can make an important contribution to understanding the pervasiveness of climate change on ecosystems and societies.

  17. Observed climate trends in Europe 1891-1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoenwiese, C.D.; Rapp, J.; Fuchs, T.; Denhard, M.

    1994-01-01

    Recently a 'European Climate Trend Atlas 1891-1990' has been published. This atlas presents linear trends of air temperature (surface); precipitation, and air pressure as observed in the common periods 1891-1990 or 1961-1990, respectively. In addition, air humidity trends 1961-1990 are presented. The analysis is based on 117 station data records (at the most) which are checked for homogeneity. The evaluation of the trend charts is based on the 'Kriging' interpolation scheme using a 3 x3 grid. The analysis includes also trend-to-noise ratios and the Mann-Kendall trend test. The results show considerably different trends for different months and regions. This brief contribution is focussed on seasonal temperature and precipitation where longterm trends (1891-1990) of increasing temperature and relatively short-term trends (1961-1990) of decreasing summer precipitation in some parts of Europe may be most prominent. (orig.) [de

  18. Pathfinder Sea Surface Temperature Climate Data Record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker-Yeboah, S.; Saha, K.; Zhang, D.; Casey, K. S.

    2016-02-01

    Global sea surface temperature (SST) fields are important in understanding ocean and climate variability. The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) develops and maintains a high resolution, long-term, climate data record (CDR) of global satellite SST. These SST values are generated at approximately 4 km resolution using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instruments aboard NOAA polar-orbiting satellites going back to 1981. The Pathfinder SST algorithm is based on the Non-Linear SST algorithm using the modernized NASA SeaWiFS Data Analysis System (SeaDAS). Coefficients for this SST product were generated using regression analyses with co-located in situ and satellite measurements. Previous versions of Pathfinder included level 3 collated (L3C) products. Pathfinder Version 5.3 includes level 2 pre-processed (L2P), level 3 Uncollated (L3C), and L3C products. Notably, the data were processed in the cloud using Amazon Web Services and are made available through all of the modern web visualization and subset services provided by the THREDDS Data Server, the Live Access Server, and the OPeNDAP Hyrax Server.In this version of Pathfinder SST, anomalous hot-spots at land-water boundaries are better identified and the dataset includes updated land masks and sea ice data over the Antarctic ice shelves. All quality levels of SST values are generated, giving the user greater flexibility and the option to apply their own cloud-masking procedures. Additional improvements include consistent cloud tree tests for NOAA-07 and NOAA-19 with respect to the other sensors, improved SSTs in sun glint areas, and netCDF file format improvements to ensure consistency with the latest Group for High Resolution SST (GHRSST) requirements. This quality controlled satellite SST field is a reference environmental data record utilized as a primary resource of SST for numerous regional and global marine efforts.

  19. Comments on Current Space Systems Observing the Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, L. A.

    2016-07-01

    The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), which was established in 1992, has been effective in specifying the observations needed for climate studies, and advocating that these observations be made. As a result, there are essential climate variables being observed, particularly from space, and these have formed the basis for our ever-improving models of how the Earth system functions and the human impact on it. We cannot conclude, however, that the current observing system in space is adequate. Climate change is accelerating, and we need to ensure that our observations capture, with completeness and with proper resolution and cadence, the most important changes. Perhaps of most significance, we need to use observations from space to guide the mitigation and adaptation strategies on which at last our civilization seems prepared to embark. And we need to use our observations to educate particularly policy makers on the reality of climate change, so that none deny the need to act. COSPAR is determined to play its part in highlighting the need to strengthen the climate observing system and notably its research component. This is being accomplished through events like the present roundtable, through the work of its Scientific Commission A, its Task Group on GEO (where COSPAR is serving as a member of its Program Board), and by promoting among space agencies and policy-makers the recently released scientific roadmap on Integrated Earth System Science for the period 2016-2025.

  20. The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

    2011-02-15

    Controversy continues to prevail concerning the reality of anthropogenically-induced climatic warming. One of the principal issues is the cause of the hiatus in the current global warming trend. There appears to be a widely held view that climatic change warming should exhibit an inexorable upwards trend, a view that implies there is no longer any input by climatic variability in the existing climatic system. The relative roles of climatic change and climatic variability are examined here using the same coupled global climatic model. For the former, the model is run using a specified CO{sub 2} growth scenario, while the latter consisted of a multi-millennial simulation where any climatic variability was attributable solely to internal processes within the climatic system. It is shown that internal climatic variability can produce global mean surface temperature anomalies of {+-}0.25 K and sustained positive and negative anomalies sufficient to account for the anomalous warming of the 1940s as well as the present hiatus in the observed global warming. The characteristics of the internally-induced negative temperature anomalies are such that if this internal natural variability is the cause of the observed hiatus, then a resumption of the observed global warming trend is to be expected within the next few years. (orig.)

  1. Mesoscale climate hydrology: Earth Observation System - definition phase

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Menenti, M.; Bastiaanssen, W.G.M.

    1997-01-01

    The use of airborne and space observations to map surface heat fluxes and soil water content at heterogeneous land surfaces was studied. Algorithms to estimate evaporation fluxes with satellite observations were evaluated against measurements. Spatialcorrelation lengths were studied with estimated

  2. Mesoscale climate hydrology: Earth Observation System - definition phase

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Menenti, M.; Bastiaanssen, W.G.M.

    1995-01-01

    The use of airborne and space observations to map surface heat fluxes and soil water content at heterogeneous land surfaces was studied. Algorithms to estimate evaporation fluxes with satellite observations were evaluated against measurements. Spatialcorrelation lengths were studied with estimated

  3. Surface Winds and Dust Biases in Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evan, A. T.

    2018-01-01

    An analysis of North African dust from models participating in the Fifth Climate Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggested that, when forced by observed sea surface temperatures, these models were unable to reproduce any aspects of the observed year-to-year variability in dust from North Africa. Consequently, there would be little reason to have confidence in the models' projections of changes in dust over the 21st century. However, no subsequent study has elucidated the root causes of the disagreement between CMIP5 and observed dust. Here I develop an idealized model of dust emission and then use this model to show that, over North Africa, such biases in CMIP5 models are due to errors in the surface wind fields and not due to the representation of dust emission processes. These results also suggest that because the surface wind field over North Africa is highly spatially autocorrelated, intermodel differences in the spatial structure of dust emission have little effect on the relative change in year-to-year dust emission over the continent. I use these results to show that similar biases in North African dust from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) version 2 surface wind field biases but that these wind biases were not present in the first version of MERRA.

  4. Earth observation big data for climate change research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hua-Dong Guo

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Earth observation technology has provided highly useful information in global climate change research over the past few decades and greatly promoted its development, especially through providing biological, physical, and chemical parameters on a global scale. Earth observation data has the 4V features (volume, variety, veracity, and velocity of big data that are suitable for climate change research. Moreover, the large amount of data available from scientific satellites plays an important role. This study reviews the advances of climate change studies based on Earth observation big data and provides examples of case studies that utilize Earth observation big data in climate change research, such as synchronous satellite–aerial–ground observation experiments, which provide extremely large and abundant datasets; Earth observational sensitive factors (e.g., glaciers, lakes, vegetation, radiation, and urbanization; and global environmental change information and simulation systems. With the era of global environment change dawning, Earth observation big data will underpin the Future Earth program with a huge volume of various types of data and will play an important role in academia and decisionmaking. Inevitably, Earth observation big data will encounter opportunities and challenges brought about by global climate change.

  5. Unusual climatic conditions and infectious diseases: observations made by Hippocrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falagas, Matthew E; Bliziotis, Ioannis A; Kosmidis, John; Daikos, George K

    2010-12-01

    About 2500 years ago, Hippocrates made noteworthy observations about the influence of climate on public health. He believed that people living in cities with different climate may suffer from different diseases. Hippocrates also observed that abrupt climatic changes or unusual weather conditions affect public health, especially the incidence and severity of various infectious diseases, including gastrointestinal infections, tuberculosis, and central nervous system infections. We believe that Hippocrates' scientific observations are great early historic examples that stress to modern infectious diseases researchers and clinicians the need to study intensively the effect of the occurring global climate changes to infectious diseases in order to help in the prevention of possible epidemics of infections. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  6. Observed and Projected Climate Extremities in Chennai Metropolitan Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anushiya, j.; Andimuthu, R.

    2013-12-01

    Analyses of observed climate throughout world revealed some significant changes in the extremes. Any change in the frequency or severity of extreme climate events would have profound impacts on the resilience of nature and society. It is thus very important to analyze extreme events to reliably monitor and detect climate change. Chennai is the fourth largest metropolis in India and one of the fastest growing economic and Industrial growth centers in South Asia. Population has grown rapidly in the last 20 years due to its major industrialization and tremendous growth. Already Chennai's day and night time Temperature shows an increasing trend. The past incidence of catastrophic flooding was observed in the city due to heavy rains associated with depressions and cyclonic storm lead floods in major rivers. After 2000, the incidents were reported repeatedly. The effort has made in this study to find the observed climate extremities over the past years and in the future. For observed changes, IMD gridded data set, and station data are used. Future high resolution climate scenarios (0.220x0.220) are developed through RCM using PRECIS. The boundary data have provided by the UK Met office. The selected members are simulated under the A1B scenario (a mid range emission scenario) for a continuous run till 2100. Climate indices listed by Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) by the CLIVAR are considered in this study. The indices were obtained using the software package RClimDex. Kendall's tau based slope estimator has been used to find the significance lavel. The results shows the significant increasing tendency of warm days (TX90P) in the past and in future. The trends in extreme wet days (R99P) are also increased. The growth in population, urban and industrial area, economic activities, depletion of natural resources along with changing climate are forced to develop the infrastructure includes climate friendly policies to adopt and to ensure the

  7. Relationship of tropospheric stability to climate sensitivity and Earth's observed radiation budget.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceppi, Paulo; Gregory, Jonathan M

    2017-12-12

    Climate feedbacks generally become smaller in magnitude over time under CO 2 forcing in coupled climate models, leading to an increase in the effective climate sensitivity, the estimated global-mean surface warming in steady state for doubled CO 2 Here, we show that the evolution of climate feedbacks in models is consistent with the effect of a change in tropospheric stability, as has recently been hypothesized, and the latter is itself driven by the evolution of the pattern of sea-surface temperature response. The change in climate feedback is mainly associated with a decrease in marine tropical low cloud (a more positive shortwave cloud feedback) and with a less negative lapse-rate feedback, as expected from a decrease in stability. Smaller changes in surface albedo and humidity feedbacks also contribute to the overall change in feedback, but are unexplained by stability. The spatial pattern of feedback changes closely matches the pattern of stability changes, with the largest increase in feedback occurring in the tropical East Pacific. Relationships qualitatively similar to those in the models among sea-surface temperature pattern, stability, and radiative budget are also found in observations on interannual time scales. Our results suggest that constraining the future evolution of sea-surface temperature patterns and tropospheric stability will be necessary for constraining climate sensitivity.

  8. Relationship of tropospheric stability to climate sensitivity and Earth's observed radiation budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceppi, Paulo; Gregory, Jonathan M.

    2017-12-01

    Climate feedbacks generally become smaller in magnitude over time under CO2 forcing in coupled climate models, leading to an increase in the effective climate sensitivity, the estimated global-mean surface warming in steady state for doubled CO2. Here, we show that the evolution of climate feedbacks in models is consistent with the effect of a change in tropospheric stability, as has recently been hypothesized, and the latter is itself driven by the evolution of the pattern of sea-surface temperature response. The change in climate feedback is mainly associated with a decrease in marine tropical low cloud (a more positive shortwave cloud feedback) and with a less negative lapse-rate feedback, as expected from a decrease in stability. Smaller changes in surface albedo and humidity feedbacks also contribute to the overall change in feedback, but are unexplained by stability. The spatial pattern of feedback changes closely matches the pattern of stability changes, with the largest increase in feedback occurring in the tropical East Pacific. Relationships qualitatively similar to those in the models among sea-surface temperature pattern, stability, and radiative budget are also found in observations on interannual time scales. Our results suggest that constraining the future evolution of sea-surface temperature patterns and tropospheric stability will be necessary for constraining climate sensitivity.

  9. Linking Indigenous Knowledge and Observed Climate Change Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Chief Clarence; Bynum, Nora; Johnson, Liz; King, Ursula; Mustonen, Tero; Neofotis, Peter; Oettle, Noel; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Sakakibara, Chie; Shadrin, Chief Vyacheslav; hide

    2010-01-01

    We present indigenous knowledge narratives and explore their connections to documented temperature and other climate changes and observed climate change impact studies. We then propose a framework for enhancing integration of these indigenous narratives of observed climate change with global assessments. Our aim is to contribute to the thoughtful and respectful integration of indigenous knowledge with scientific data and analysis, so that this rich body of knowledge can inform science, and so that indigenous and traditional peoples can use the tools and methods of science for the benefit of their communities if they choose to do so. Enhancing ways of understanding such connections are critical as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment process gets underway.

  10. The observed sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arkin, Phillip A; Janowiak, John; Smith, Thomas M; Sapiano, Mathew R P

    2010-01-01

    Climate models project large changes in global surface temperature in coming decades that are expected to be accompanied by significant changes in the global hydrological cycle. Validation of model simulations is essential to support their use in decision making, but observing the elements of the hydrological cycle is challenging, and model-independent global data sets exist only for precipitation. We compute the sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature using available global precipitation data sets and compare the results against the sensitivities derived from model simulations of 20th century climate. The implications of the results for the global climate observing system are discussed.

  11. On the Reprocessing and Reanalysis of Observations for Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, Michael G.; Kennedy, John; Dee, Dick; Allan, R.; O'Neill, Alan

    2013-01-01

    The long observational record is critical to our understanding of the Earths climate, but most observing systems were not developed with a climate objective in mind. As a result, tremendous efforts have gone into assessing and reprocessing the data records to improve their usefulness in climate studies. The purpose of this paper is to both review recent progress in reprocessing and reanalyzing observations, and to summarize the challenges that must be overcome in order to improve our understanding of climate and variability. Reprocessing improves data quality through more scrutiny and improved retrieval techniques for individual observing systems, while reanalysis merges many disparate observations with models through data assimilation, yet both aim to provide an climatology of Earth processes. Many challenges remain, such as tracking the improvement of processing algorithms and limited spatial coverage. Reanalyses have fostered significant research, yet reliable global trends in many physical fields are not yet attainable, despite significant advances in data assimilation and numerical modeling. Oceanic reanalyses have made significant advances in recent years, but will only be discussed here in terms of progress toward integrated Earth system analyses. Climate data sets are generally adequate for process studies and large-scale climate variability. Communication of the strengths, limitations and uncertainties of reprocessed observations and reanalysis data, not only among the community of developers, but also with the extended research community, including the new generations of researchers and the decision makers is crucial for further advancement of the observational data records. It must be emphasized that careful investigation of the data and processing methods are required to use the observations appropriately.

  12. Soil temperature response in Korea to a changing climate using a land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Seon Ki; O, Sungmin; Cassardo, Claudio

    2017-11-01

    The land surface processes play an important role in weather and climate systems through its regulation of radiation, heat, water and momentum fluxes. Soil temperature (ST) is one of the most important parameters in the land surface processes; however, there are few extensive measurements of ST with a long time series in the world. According to the CLImatology of Parameters at the Surface (CLIPS) methodology, the output of a trusted Soil-Vegetation- Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) scheme can be utilized instead of observations to investigate the regional climate of interest. In this study, ST in South Korea is estimated in a view of future climate using the output from a trusted SVAT scheme — the University of TOrino model of land Process Interaction with Atmosphere (UTOPIA), which is driven by a regional climate model. Here characteristic changes in ST are analyzed under the IPCC A2 future climate for 2046-2055 and 2091-2100, and are compared with those under the reference climate for 1996-2005. The UTOPIA results were validated using the observed ST in the reference climate, and the model proved to produce reasonable ST in South Korea. The UTOPIA simulations indicate that ST increases due to environmental change, especially in air temperature (AT), in the future climate. The increment of ST is proportional to that of AT except for winter. In wintertime, the ST variations are different from region to region mainly due to variations in snow cover, which keeps ST from significant changes by the climate change.

  13. Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity From Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marvel, Kate; Pincus, Robert; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.

    2018-02-01

    An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because models project more positive climate feedback in the far future. Here we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to show that across models, ECS inferred from the recent historical period (1979-2005) is indeed almost uniformly lower than that inferred from simulations subject to abrupt increases in CO2 radiative forcing. However, ECS inferred from simulations in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed according to observations is lower still. ECS inferred from simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures is strongly linked to changes to tropical marine low clouds. However, feedbacks from these clouds are a weak constraint on long-term model ECS. One interpretation is that observations of recent climate changes constitute a poor direct proxy for long-term sensitivity.

  14. Long-term climate monitoring by the global climate observing system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karl, T.R.

    1995-12-01

    Is the climate warming? Is the hydrologic cycle changing? Is the atmospheric/oceanic circulation changing? Is the climate becoming more variable or extreme? Is radiative forcing of the climate changing? are complex questions not only from the standpoint of a multi-variate problem, but because of the various aspects of spatial and temporal sampling that must be considered on a global scale. The development of a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) offers the opportunity for scientists to do something about existing observing deficiencies in light of the importance of documenting long-term climate changes that may already be affected by anthropogenic changes of atmospheric composition and land use as well as other naturally occurring changes. As an important step toward improving the present inadequacies, a workshop was held to help define the long-term monitoring requirements minimally needed to address the five questions posed above, with special emphasis on detecting anthropogenic climate change and its potential impact on managed and unmanaged systems The workshop focussed on three broad areas related to long-term climate monitoring: (a) the scientific rationale for the long-term climate products (including their accuracy, resolution, and homogeneity) required from our observing systems as related to climate monitoring and climate change detection and attribution; (b) the status of long-term climate products and the observing systems from which these data are derived; and (c) implementation strategies necessary to fulfill item (a) in light of existing systems. Item (c) was treated more in terms of feasibility rather than as a specific implementation plan. figs., tabs., refs

  15. The TOAR database on observations of surface ozone (and more)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, M. G.; Schröder, S.; Cooper, O. R.; Galbally, I. E.; Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Tanimoto, H.; Elshorbany, Y. F.; Naja, M. K.; Seguel, R. J.

    2017-12-01

    In support of the first Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) a relational database of global surface ozone observations has been developed and populated with hourly measurement data and enhanced metadata. A comprehensive suite of ozone data products including standard statistics, health and vegetation impact metrics, and trend information, are made available through a common data portal and a web interface. These data form the basis of the TOAR analyses focusing on human health, vegetation, and climate relevant ozone issues. Cooperation among many data centers and individual researchers worldwide made it possible to build the world's largest collection of in-situ hourly surface ozone data covering the period from 1970 to 2015. By combining the data from almost 10,000 measurement sites around the world with global metadata information, new analyses of surface ozone have become possible, such as the first globally consistent characterisations of measurement sites as either urban or rural/remote. Exploitation of these global metadata allows for new insights into the global distribution, and seasonal and long-term changes of tropospheric ozone and they enable TOAR to perform the first, globally consistent analysis of present-day ozone concentrations and recent ozone changes with relevance to health, agriculture, and climate. This presentation will provide a summary of the TOAR surface observations database including recent additions of ozone precursor and meteorological data. We will demonstrate how the database can be accessed and the data can be used, and we will discuss its limitations and the potential for closing some of teh remaining data gaps.

  16. Historical Arctic and Antarctic Surface Observational Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This product consists of meteorological data from 105 Arctic weather stations and 137 Antarctic stations, extracted from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)'s...

  17. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Daily Precipitation Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observational reports of daily precipitation (1200 UTC to 1200 UTC) are made by members of the NWS Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) network; NWS...

  18. Climate Change Observation Accuracy: Requirements and Economic Value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wielicki, Bruce; Cooke, Roger; Golub, Alexander; Baize, Rosemary; Mlynczak, Martin; Lukashin, Constantin; Thome, Kurt; Shea, Yolanda; Kopp, Greg; Pilewskie, Peter; hide

    2016-01-01

    This presentation will summarize a new quantitative approach to determining the required accuracy for climate change observations. Using this metric, most current global satellite observations struggle to meet this accuracy level. CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) is a new satellite mission designed to resolve this challenge is by achieving advances of a factor of 10 for reflected solar spectra and a factor of 3 to 5 for thermal infrared spectra. The CLARREO spectrometers can serve as SI traceable benchmarks for the Global Satellite Intercalibration System (GSICS) and greatly improve the utility of a wide range of LEO and GEO infrared and reflected solar satellite sensors for climate change observations (e.g. CERES, MODIS, VIIIRS, CrIS, IASI, Landsat, etc). A CLARREO Pathfinder mission for flight on the International Space Station is included in the U.S. Presidentâ€"TM"s fiscal year 2016 budget, with launch in 2019 or 2020. Providing more accurate decadal change trends can in turn lead to more rapid narrowing of key climate science uncertainties such as cloud feedback and climate sensitivity. A new study has been carried out to quantify the economic benefits of such an advance and concludes that the economic value is $9 Trillion U.S. dollars. The new value includes the cost of carbon emissions reductions.

  19. Open Surface Solar Irradiance Observations - A Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menard, Lionel; Nüst, Daniel; Jirka, Simon; Maso, Joan; Ranchin, Thierry; Wald, Lucien

    2015-04-01

    The newly started project ConnectinGEO funded by the European Commission aims at improving the understanding on which environmental observations are currently available in Europe and subsequently providing an informational basis to close gaps in diverse observation networks. The project complements supporting actions and networking activities with practical challenges to test and improve the procedures and methods for identifying observation data gaps, and to ensure viability in real world scenarios. We present a challenge on future concepts for building a data sharing portal for the solar energy industry as well as the state of the art in the domain. Decision makers and project developers of solar power plants have identified the Surface Solar Irradiance (SSI) and its components as an important factor for their business development. SSI observations are crucial in the process of selecting suitable locations for building new plants. Since in-situ pyranometric stations form a sparse network, the search for locations starts with global satellite data and is followed by the deployment of in-situ sensors in selected areas for at least one year. To form a convincing picture, answers must be sought in the conjunction of these EO systems, and although companies collecting SSI observations are willing to share this information, the means to exchange in-situ measurements across companies and between stakeholders in the market are still missing. We present a solution for interoperable exchange of SSI data comprising in-situ time-series observations as well as sensor descriptions based on practical experiences from other domains. More concretely, we will apply concepts and implementations of the Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) framework of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). The work is based on an existing spatial data infrastructure (SDI), which currently comprises metadata, maps and coverage data, but no in-situ observations yet. This catalogue is already registered in the

  20. Satellite Observation Systems for Polar Climate Change Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comiso, Josefino C.

    2012-01-01

    The key observational tools for detecting large scale changes of various parameters in the polar regions have been satellite sensors. The sensors include passive and active satellite systems in the visible, infrared and microwave frequencies. The monitoring started with Tiros and Nimbus research satellites series in the 1970s but during the period, not much data was stored digitally because of limitations and cost of the needed storage systems. Continuous global data came about starting with the launch of ocean color, passive microwave, and thermal infrared sensors on board Nimbus-7 and Synthetic Aperture Radar, Radar Altimeter and Scatterometer on board SeaSat satellite both launched in 1978. The Nimbus-7 lasted longer than expected and provided about 9 years of useful data while SeaSat quit working after 3 months but provided very useful data that became the baseline for follow-up systems with similar capabilities. Over the years, many new sensors were launched, some from Japan Aeronautics and Space Agency (JAXA), some from the European Space Agency (ESA) and more recently, from RuSSia, China, Korea, Canada and India. For polar studies, among the most useful sensors has been the passive microwave sensor which provides day/night and almost all weather observation of the surface. The sensor provide sea surface temperature, precipitation, wind, water vapor and sea ice concentration data that have been very useful in monitoring the climate of the region. More than 30 years of such data are now available, starting with the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on board the Nimbus-7, the Special Scanning Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) on board a Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on board the EOS/ Aqua satellite. The techniques that have been developed to derive geophysical parameters from data provided by these and other sensors and associated instrumental and algorithm errors and validation techniques

  1. Solving the African Climate Observation Puzzle, and Concurrently Building Capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selker, J. S.; Van De Giesen, N.; Annor, F. O.; Hochreutener, R.; Jachens, E. R.

    2017-12-01

    The Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO.org) is directly addressing basic issues of climate observation, climate science, and education through a novel public-private partnership. With 500 stations now reporting from over 20 African countries, TAHMO is the largest single source of continental-scale weather and climate data for Africa. Working directly with national meteorological agencies, TAHMO first builds local human capacity and real-time data to the host country. TAHMO also provides all of these data free of charge to all researchers and teams seeking to develop peer-reviewed scientific contributions. This will be the basis of a whole new level of observation-informed science for the African continent. Most TAHMO stations are housed at African schools, with a local host-teacher who attends to basic day-to-day cleaning. These schools also receive free curricular support providing geographic, mathematical, statistical, hydrologic, and meteorological lessons that connect student to their environment and creates climate-aware citizens, which we believe is the most fundamental element of developing a climate-resilient society. Installation of these stations have been made possible through the support of private companies like IBM and development programmes through the Global Resilience Partnership, World Bank, USAID among others. The availability of these new data sets will help generate more accurate weather forecasts which will be made freely available across the African continent. TAHMO leverages low-cost cell phone data transmission with solid-state sensor technology (provided by the METER corporation) to provide a cost-effective, sustainable, and transformative solution to the climate observation gap in Africa.

  2. Can climate sensitivity be estimated from short-term relationships of top-of-atmosphere net radiation and surface temperature?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Bing; Min Qilong; Sun Wenbo; Hu Yongxiang; Fan, Tai-Fang

    2011-01-01

    Increasing the knowledge in climate radiative feedbacks is critical for current climate studies. This work focuses on short-term relationships between global mean surface temperature and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) net radiation. The relationships may be used to characterize the climate feedback as suggested by some recent studies. As those recent studies, an energy balance model with ocean mixed layer and both radiative and non-radiative heat sources is used here. The significant improvement of current model is that climate system memories are considered. Based on model simulations, short-term relationship between global mean surface temperature and TOA net radiation (or the linear striation feature as suggested by previous studies) might represent climate feedbacks when the system had no memories. However, climate systems with the same short-term feedbacks but different memories would have a similar linear striation feature. This linear striation feature reflects only fast components of climate feedbacks and may not represent the total climate feedback even when the memory length of climate systems is minimal. The potential errors in the use of short-term relationships in estimations of climate sensitivity could be big. In short time scales, fast climate processes may overwhelm long-term climate feedbacks. Thus, the climate radiative feedback parameter obtained from short-term data may not provide a reliable estimate of climate sensitivity. This result also suggests that long-term observations of global surface temperature and TOA radiation are critical in the understanding of climate feedbacks and sensitivities.

  3. Economic Value of an Advanced Climate Observing System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R.; Young, D. F.; Mlynczak, M. G.

    2013-12-01

    Scientific missions increasingly need to show the monetary value of knowledge advances in budget-constrained environments. For example, suppose a climate science mission promises to yield decisive information on the rate of human caused global warming within a shortened time frame. How much should society be willing to pay for this knowledge today? The US interagency memo on the social cost of carbon (SCC) creates a standard yardstick for valuing damages from carbon emissions. We illustrate how value of information (VOI) calculations can be used to monetize the relative value of different climate observations. We follow the SCC, setting uncertainty in climate sensitivity to a truncated Roe and Baker (2007) distribution, setting discount rates of 2.5%, 3% and 5%, and using one of the Integrated Assessment Models sanctioned in SCC (DICE, Nordhaus 2008). We consider three mitigation scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), a moderate mitigation response DICE Optimal, and a strong response scenario (Stern). To illustrate results, suppose that we are on the BAU emissions scenario, and that we would switch to the Stern emissions path if we learn with 90% confidence that the decadal rate of temperature change reaches or exceeds 0.2 C/decade. Under the SCC assumptions, the year in which this happens, if it happens, depends on the uncertain climate sensitivity and on the emissions path. The year in which we become 90% certain that it happens depends, in addition, on our Earth observations, their accuracy, and their completeness. The basic concept is that more accurate observations can shorten the time for societal decisions. The economic value of the resulting averted damages depends on the discount rate, and the years in which the damages occur. A new climate observation would be economically justified if the net present value (NPV) of the difference in averted damages, relative to the existing systems, exceeds the NPV of the system costs. Our results (Cooke et al. 2013

  4. Recent Changes of Some Observed Climate Extreme Events in Kano

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imole Ezekiel Gbode

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Observed rainfall and temperature data for the period 1960–2007 were used to examine recent changes of extreme climate over Kano, located in the Sahelian region of Nigeria. The RClimDex software package was employed to generate nine important climate indices as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI. For the entire period, the results show a warming trend, an increased number of cool nights, more warm days, and a strong increase in the number of warm spells. The rainfall indices show a slight increase in annual total rainfall, a decrease in the maximum number of consecutive wet days, and a significant increase in the number of extremely wet days. Such changes in climate may result in an increasing demand for domestic energy for cooling and a higher evaporation rate from water bodies and irrigated crop. These findings may give some guidance to politicians and planners in how to best cope with these extreme weather and climate events.

  5. Shifting relative importance of climatic constraints on land surface phenology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garonna, Irene; de Jong, Rogier; Stöckli, Reto; Schmid, Bernhard; Schenkel, David; Schimel, David; Schaepman, Michael E.

    2018-02-01

    Land surface phenology (LSP), the study of seasonal dynamics of vegetated land surfaces from remote sensing, is a key indicator of global change, that both responds to and influences weather and climate. The effects of climatic changes on LSP depend on the relative importance of climatic constraints in specific regions—which are not well understood at global scale. Understanding the climatic constraints that underlie LSP is crucial for explaining climate change effects on global vegetation phenology. We used a combination of modelled and remotely-sensed vegetation activity records to quantify the interplay of three climatic constraints on land surface phenology (namely minimum temperature, moisture availability, and photoperiod), as well as the dynamic nature of these constraints. Our study examined trends and the relative importance of the three constrains at the start and the end of the growing season over eight global environmental zones, for the past three decades. Our analysis revealed widespread shifts in the relative importance of climatic constraints in the temperate and boreal biomes during the 1982-2011 period. These changes in the relative importance of the three climatic constraints, which ranged up to 8% since 1982 levels, varied with latitude and between start and end of the growing season. We found a reduced influence of minimum temperature on start and end of season in all environmental zones considered, with a biome-dependent effect on moisture and photoperiod constraints. For the end of season, we report that the influence of moisture has on average increased for both the temperate and boreal biomes over 8.99 million km2. A shifting relative importance of climatic constraints on LSP has implications both for understanding changes and for improving how they may be modelled at large scales.

  6. Characterization of climate indices in models and observations using Hurst Exponent and Reyni Entropy Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, D.; Bhatt, U. S.; Wackerbauer, R.; Sanchez, R.; Polyakov, I.

    2009-12-01

    Because models are intrinsically incomplete and evolving, multiple methods are needed to characterize how well models match observations and were their weaknesses lie. For the study of climate, global climate models (GCM) are the primary tool. Therefore, in order to improve our climate modeling confidence and our understanding of the models weakness we need to apply more and more measures of various types until one finds differences. Then we can decide if these differences have important impacts on ones results and what they mean in terms of the weaknesses and missing physics in the models. In this work, we investigate a suite of National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) simulations of varied complexity, from fixed sea surface temperature simulations to fully coupled T85 simulations. Climate indices (e.g. NAO), constructed from the GCM simulations and observed data, are analyzed using Hurst Exponent (R/S) and Reyni Entropy methods to explore long-term and short-term dynamics (i.e. temporal evolution of the time series). These methods identify clear differences between the models and observations as well as between the models. One preliminary finding suggests that fixing midlatitude SSTs to observed values increases the differences between the model and observation dynamics at long time scales.

  7. Climate Outreach Using Regional Coastal Ocean Observing System Portals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, D. M.; Hernandez, D. L.; Wakely, A.; Bochenek, R. J.; Bickel, A.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal oceans are dynamic, changing environments affected by processes ranging from seconds to millennia. On the east and west coast of the U.S., regional observing systems have deployed and sustained a remarkable diverse array of observing tools and sensors. Data portals visualize and provide access to real-time sensor networks. Portals have emerged as an interactive tool for educators to help students explore and understand climate. Bringing data portals to outreach events, into classrooms, and onto tablets and smartphones enables educators to address topics and phenomena happening right now. For example at the 2015 Charleston Science Technology Engineering and Math (STEM) Festival, visitors navigated the SECOORA (Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing regional Association) data portal to view the real-time marine meteorological conditions off South Carolina. Map-based entry points provide an intuitive interface for most students, an array of time series and other visualizations depict many of the essential principles of climate science manifest in the coastal zone, and data down-load/ extract options provide access to the data and documentation for further inquiry by advanced users. Beyond the exposition of climate principles, the portal experience reveals remarkable technologies in action and shows how the observing system is enabled by the activity of many different partners.

  8. Fewer clouds in the Mediterranean: consistency of observations and climate simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; Enriquez-Alonso, Aaron; Calbó, Josep; González, Josep-Abel; Wild, Martin; Folini, Doris; Norris, Joel R; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M

    2017-02-02

    Clouds play a major role in the climate system, but large uncertainties remain about their decadal variations. Here we report a widespread decrease in cloud cover since the 1970 s over the Mediterranean region, in particular during the 1970 s-1980 s, especially in the central and eastern areas and during springtime. Confidence in these findings is high due to the good agreement between the interannual variations of cloud cover provided by surface observations and several satellite-derived and reanalysis products, although some discrepancies exist in their trends. Climate model simulations of the historical experiment from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) also exhibit a decrease in cloud cover over the Mediterranean since the 1970 s, in agreement with surface observations, although the rate of decrease is slightly lower. The observed northward expansion of the Hadley cell is discussed as a possible cause of detected trends.

  9. Sensitivity of Distributions of Climate System Properties to Surface Temperature Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libardoni, A. G.; Forest, C. E.

    2011-12-01

    Predictions of climate change from models depend strongly on the representation of climate system properties emerging from the processes and feedbacks in the models. The quality of any model prediction can be evaluated by determining how well its output reproduces the observed climate system. With this evaluation, the reliability of climate projections derived from the model and provided for policy makers is assessed and quantified. In this study, surface temperature, upper-air temperature, and ocean heat content data are used to constrain the distributions of the parameters that define three climate system properties in the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model: climate sensitivity, the rate of ocean heat uptake into the deep ocean, and net anthropogenic aerosol forcing. In particular, we explore the sensitivity of the distributions to the surface temperature dataset used to estimate the likelihood of model output given the observed climate records. In total, five different reconstructions of past surface temperatures are used and the resulting parameter distribution functions differ from each other. Differences in estimates of climate sensitivity mode and mean are as great as 1 K between the datasets, with an overall range of 1.2 to 5.3 K using the 5-95 confidence intervals. Ocean effective diffusivity is poorly constrained regardless of which dataset is used. All distributions show broad distributions and only three show signs of a distribution mode. When a mode is present, they tend to be for low diffusivity values. Distributions for the net aerosol forcing show similar shapes and cluster into two groups that are shifted by approximately 0.1 watts per square meter. However, the overall spread of forcing values from the 5-95 confidence interval, -0.19 to -0.83 watts per square meter, is small compared to other uncertainties in climate forcings. Transient climate response estimates derived from these distributions range between 0.87 and 2.41 K. Similar to the

  10. Assessment of radiative feedback in climate models using satellite observations of annual flux variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsushima, Yoko; Manabe, Syukuro

    2013-05-07

    In the climate system, two types of radiative feedback are in operation. The feedback of the first kind involves the radiative damping of the vertically uniform temperature perturbation of the troposphere and Earth's surface that approximately follows the Stefan-Boltzmann law of blackbody radiation. The second kind involves the change in the vertical lapse rate of temperature, water vapor, and clouds in the troposphere and albedo of the Earth's surface. Using satellite observations of the annual variation of the outgoing flux of longwave radiation and that of reflected solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, this study estimates the so-called "gain factor," which characterizes the strength of radiative feedback of the second kind that operates on the annually varying, global-scale perturbation of temperature at the Earth's surface. The gain factor is computed not only for all sky but also for clear sky. The gain factor of so-called "cloud radiative forcing" is then computed as the difference between the two. The gain factors thus obtained are compared with those obtained from 35 models that were used for the fourth and fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment. Here, we show that the gain factors obtained from satellite observations of cloud radiative forcing are effective for identifying systematic biases of the feedback processes that control the sensitivity of simulated climate, providing useful information for validating and improving a climate model.

  11. School climate in peer bullying: observers' and active participants' perceptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonja Pečjak

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Peer bullying is a phenomenon present in all schools. The school as an institution has a major role in limiting peer bullying. The primary goal of the study was to determine how different groups of students perceived school climate in relation to peer bullying regarding their role in peer bullying (active participants: bullies, victims, bully-victims and non-active participants: observers. 414 students (from 18 primary and secondary schools responded to The School Climate Bullying Survey (SCBS; Cornell, 2012, which measures the incidence of various forms of peer bullying and three dimensions of school climate (prevalence of teasing and bullying, aggressive attitudes, and willingness to seek help. The results showed that the active participants in peer bullying report a frequent presence of verbal and social bullying (54% and 40%, respectively and a significantly lower frequency of physical and cyber bullying (14%. The largest differences between the groups of students were found in their perceptions of the prevalence of aggressive attitudes and willingness to seek help in a school context. In the perceptions of both of these dimensions we found a high degree of similarity between the groups of bullies and victim-bullies, and between the groups of victims and observers. The first two groups, when compared to the victims and observers, perceived to a greater extent that school allows aggression as a way of affirmation among peers and in school in general, and that neither teachers nor peers do not stop the bullying, which discourages the victims from seeking help from them. The results confirmed the existence of the association between students’ perceived school climate by bullying and their behavior (roles in peer bullying.

  12. Perspectives on Meeting the Worldwide Observational Needs of Climate Services (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdin, J. P.

    2013-12-01

    There is growing recognition of the need for climate services to cope with the extremes of climate variability and to adapt to climate change. Indeed, in July 2013, an international board convened by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) agreed on an operational plan for implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). Priority sectors of the GFCS are agriculture and food security, disaster risk reduction, health, and water. Climate services encompass a range of information products to inform climate-sensitive decision making and reduce human vulnerability to climatic hazards, from IPCC Assessment Reports to sub-national, season-specific outlooks and monitoring. All such information products must be underpinned by climate observations that are as timely, consistent, and spatially/temporally complete as possible. Experience supporting food security monitoring points up a number of priority needs that are within the technological grasp of national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHS), but which remain to be implemented. Particularly in chronically food-insecure countries, there is a need for increased frequency of reporting by stations on the WMO Global Telecommunications System (GTS) network, and for an expansion of the number of stations contributing observations via GTS. Presently, only a subset of active NMHS stations report, with significant gaps in the daily time-series. Even with such improvements, there will inevitably be gaps in station network coverage. Consequently, there is a need for gridded data products at daily time steps, available in near real time with global coverage, and accessible without charge or intellectual property encumbrances. By complementing station data with satellite observations, and assimilating these into atmospheric and land surface models, such gridded time-series can be produced. However, existing gridded products are not ideal for operational climate services because they are produced either

  13. Stratospheric Aerosol--Observations, Processes, and Impact on Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kresmer, Stefanie; Thomason, Larry W.; von Hobe, Marc; Hermann, Markus; Deshler, Terry; Timmreck, Claudia; Toohey, Matthew; Stenke, Andrea; Schwarz, Joshua P.; Weigel, Ralf; hide

    2016-01-01

    Interest in stratospheric aerosol and its role in climate have increased over the last decade due to the observed increase in stratospheric aerosol since 2000 and the potential for changes in the sulfur cycle induced by climate change. This review provides an overview about the advances in stratospheric aerosol research since the last comprehensive assessment of stratospheric aerosol was published in 2006. A crucial development since 2006 is the substantial improvement in the agreement between in situ and space-based inferences of stratospheric aerosol properties during volcanically quiescent periods. Furthermore, new measurement systems and techniques, both in situ and space based, have been developed for measuring physical aerosol properties with greater accuracy and for characterizing aerosol composition. However, these changes induce challenges to constructing a long-term stratospheric aerosol climatology. Currently, changes in stratospheric aerosol levels less than 20% cannot be confidently quantified. The volcanic signals tend to mask any nonvolcanically driven change, making them difficult to understand. While the role of carbonyl sulfide as a substantial and relatively constant source of stratospheric sulfur has been confirmed by new observations and model simulations, large uncertainties remain with respect to the contribution from anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions. New evidence has been provided that stratospheric aerosol can also contain small amounts of nonsulfatematter such as black carbon and organics. Chemistry-climate models have substantially increased in quantity and sophistication. In many models the implementation of stratospheric aerosol processes is coupled to radiation and/or stratospheric chemistry modules to account for relevant feedback processes.

  14. Advancing land surface model development with satellite-based Earth observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Dutra, Emanuel; Trigo, Isabel F.; Balsamo, Gianpaolo

    2017-05-01

    The land surface forms an essential part of the climate system. It interacts with the atmosphere through the exchange of water and energy and hence influences weather and climate, as well as their predictability. Correspondingly, the land surface model (LSM) is an essential part of any weather forecasting system. LSMs rely on partly poorly constrained parameters, due to sparse land surface observations. With the use of newly available land surface temperature observations, we show in this study that novel satellite-derived datasets help improve LSM configuration, and hence can contribute to improved weather predictability. We use the Hydrology Tiled ECMWF Scheme of Surface Exchanges over Land (HTESSEL) and validate it comprehensively against an array of Earth observation reference datasets, including the new land surface temperature product. This reveals satisfactory model performance in terms of hydrology but poor performance in terms of land surface temperature. This is due to inconsistencies of process representations in the model as identified from an analysis of perturbed parameter simulations. We show that HTESSEL can be more robustly calibrated with multiple instead of single reference datasets as this mitigates the impact of the structural inconsistencies. Finally, performing coupled global weather forecasts, we find that a more robust calibration of HTESSEL also contributes to improved weather forecast skills. In summary, new satellite-based Earth observations are shown to enhance the multi-dataset calibration of LSMs, thereby improving the representation of insufficiently captured processes, advancing weather predictability, and understanding of climate system feedbacks.

  15. Developing and Validating a New Classroom Climate Observation Assessment Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leff, Stephen S; Thomas, Duane E; Shapiro, Edward S; Paskewich, Brooke; Wilson, Kim; Necowitz-Hoffman, Beth; Jawad, Abbas F

    2011-01-01

    The climate of school classrooms, shaped by a combination of teacher practices and peer processes, is an important determinant for children's psychosocial functioning and is a primary factor affecting bullying and victimization. Given that there are relatively few theoretically-grounded and validated assessment tools designed to measure the social climate of classrooms, our research team developed an observation tool through participatory action research (PAR). This article details how the assessment tool was designed and preliminarily validated in 18 third-, fourth-, and fifth-grade classrooms in a large urban public school district. The goals of this study are to illustrate the feasibility of a PAR paradigm in measurement development, ascertain the psychometric properties of the assessment tool, and determine associations with different indices of classroom levels of relational and physical aggression.

  16. Uncertainty information in climate data records from Earth observation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. J. Merchant

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The question of how to derive and present uncertainty information in climate data records (CDRs has received sustained attention within the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (CCI, a programme to generate CDRs addressing a range of essential climate variables (ECVs from satellite data. Here, we review the nature, mathematics, practicalities, and communication of uncertainty information in CDRs from Earth observations. This review paper argues that CDRs derived from satellite-based Earth observation (EO should include rigorous uncertainty information to support the application of the data in contexts such as policy, climate modelling, and numerical weather prediction reanalysis. Uncertainty, error, and quality are distinct concepts, and the case is made that CDR products should follow international metrological norms for presenting quantified uncertainty. As a baseline for good practice, total standard uncertainty should be quantified per datum in a CDR, meaning that uncertainty estimates should clearly discriminate more and less certain data. In this case, flags for data quality should not duplicate uncertainty information, but instead describe complementary information (such as the confidence in the uncertainty estimate provided or indicators of conditions violating the retrieval assumptions. The paper discusses the many sources of error in CDRs, noting that different errors may be correlated across a wide range of timescales and space scales. Error effects that contribute negligibly to the total uncertainty in a single-satellite measurement can be the dominant sources of uncertainty in a CDR on the large space scales and long timescales that are highly relevant for some climate applications. For this reason, identifying and characterizing the relevant sources of uncertainty for CDRs is particularly challenging. The characterization of uncertainty caused by a given error effect involves assessing the magnitude of the effect, the

  17. Uncertainty information in climate data records from Earth observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchant, Christopher J.; Paul, Frank; Popp, Thomas; Ablain, Michael; Bontemps, Sophie; Defourny, Pierre; Hollmann, Rainer; Lavergne, Thomas; Laeng, Alexandra; de Leeuw, Gerrit; Mittaz, Jonathan; Poulsen, Caroline; Povey, Adam C.; Reuter, Max; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Sandven, Stein; Sofieva, Viktoria F.; Wagner, Wolfgang

    2017-07-01

    The question of how to derive and present uncertainty information in climate data records (CDRs) has received sustained attention within the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (CCI), a programme to generate CDRs addressing a range of essential climate variables (ECVs) from satellite data. Here, we review the nature, mathematics, practicalities, and communication of uncertainty information in CDRs from Earth observations. This review paper argues that CDRs derived from satellite-based Earth observation (EO) should include rigorous uncertainty information to support the application of the data in contexts such as policy, climate modelling, and numerical weather prediction reanalysis. Uncertainty, error, and quality are distinct concepts, and the case is made that CDR products should follow international metrological norms for presenting quantified uncertainty. As a baseline for good practice, total standard uncertainty should be quantified per datum in a CDR, meaning that uncertainty estimates should clearly discriminate more and less certain data. In this case, flags for data quality should not duplicate uncertainty information, but instead describe complementary information (such as the confidence in the uncertainty estimate provided or indicators of conditions violating the retrieval assumptions). The paper discusses the many sources of error in CDRs, noting that different errors may be correlated across a wide range of timescales and space scales. Error effects that contribute negligibly to the total uncertainty in a single-satellite measurement can be the dominant sources of uncertainty in a CDR on the large space scales and long timescales that are highly relevant for some climate applications. For this reason, identifying and characterizing the relevant sources of uncertainty for CDRs is particularly challenging. The characterization of uncertainty caused by a given error effect involves assessing the magnitude of the effect, the shape of the

  18. Potential and limitations of multidecadal satellite soil moisture observations for selected climate model evaluation studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Loew

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Soil moisture is an essential climate variable (ECV of major importance for land–atmosphere interactions and global hydrology. An appropriate representation of soil moisture dynamics in global climate models is therefore important. Recently, a first multidecadal, observation-based soil moisture dataset has become available that provides information on soil moisture dynamics from satellite observations (ECVSM, essential climate variable soil moisture. The present study investigates the potential and limitations of this new dataset for several applications in climate model evaluation. We compare soil moisture data from satellite observations, reanalysis and simulations from a state-of-the-art land surface model and analyze relationships between soil moisture and precipitation anomalies in the different dataset. Other potential applications like model parameter optimization or model initialization are not investigated in the present study. In a detailed regional study, we show that ECVSM is capable to capture well the interannual and intraannual soil moisture and precipitation dynamics in the Sahelian region. Current deficits of the new dataset are critically discussed and summarized at the end of the paper to provide guidance for an appropriate usage of the ECVSM dataset for climate studies.

  19. Competing effects of surface albedo and orographic elevated heating on regional climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Shineng; Boos, William R.

    2017-07-01

    All else being equal, a given atmospheric pressure level is thought to be warmer over a plateau than over surrounding nonelevated terrain because of orographic "elevated heating." However, elevated surfaces are also typically brighter due to reduced vegetation and increased ice cover. Here we assess the degree to which surface albedo compensates for orographic elevated heating. We confirm that land surface albedo generally increases with surface elevation in observations. Using a cloud system-resolving model, we show that increased surface albedo strongly compensates for orographic elevated heating in radiative-convective equilibrium. A nonelevated surface with the albedo of modern India would enter a runaway greenhouse regime without ventilation by monsoonal winds, while a surface with the albedo and elevation of Tibet would achieve a cooler radiative-convective equilibrium. Surface albedo changes may thus be just as important as surface elevation changes for the evolution of low-latitude regional climate throughout Earth's history.

  20. Adapting observationally based metrics of biogeophysical feedbacks from land cover/land use change to climate modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A

    2016-01-01

    To assess the biogeophysical impacts of land cover/land use change (LCLUC) on surface temperature, two observation-based metrics and their applicability in climate modeling were explored in this study. Both metrics were developed based on the surface energy balance, and provided insight into the contribution of different aspects of land surface change (such as albedo, surface roughness, net radiation and surface heat fluxes) to changing climate. A revision of the first metric, the intrinsic biophysical mechanism, can be used to distinguish the direct and indirect effects of LCLUC on surface temperature. The other, a decomposed temperature metric, gives a straightforward depiction of separate contributions of all components of the surface energy balance. These two metrics well capture observed and model simulated surface temperature changes in response to LCLUC. Results from paired FLUXNET sites and land surface model sensitivity experiments indicate that surface roughness effects usually dominate the direct biogeophysical feedback of LCLUC, while other effects play a secondary role. However, coupled climate model experiments show that these direct effects can be attenuated by large scale atmospheric changes (indirect feedbacks). When applied to real-time transient LCLUC experiments, the metrics also demonstrate usefulness for assessing the performance of climate models and quantifying land–atmosphere interactions in response to LCLUC. (letter)

  1. Commensurate comparisons of models with energy budget observations reveal consistent climate sensitivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armour, K.

    2017-12-01

    Global energy budget observations have been widely used to constrain the effective, or instantaneous climate sensitivity (ICS), producing median estimates around 2°C (Otto et al. 2013; Lewis & Curry 2015). A key question is whether the comprehensive climate models used to project future warming are consistent with these energy budget estimates of ICS. Yet, performing such comparisons has proven challenging. Within models, values of ICS robustly vary over time, as surface temperature patterns evolve with transient warming, and are generally smaller than the values of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Naively comparing values of ECS in CMIP5 models (median of about 3.4°C) to observation-based values of ICS has led to the suggestion that models are overly sensitive. This apparent discrepancy can partially be resolved by (i) comparing observation-based values of ICS to model values of ICS relevant for historical warming (Armour 2017; Proistosescu & Huybers 2017); (ii) taking into account the "efficacies" of non-CO2 radiative forcing agents (Marvel et al. 2015); and (iii) accounting for the sparseness of historical temperature observations and differences in sea-surface temperature and near-surface air temperature over the oceans (Richardson et al. 2016). Another potential source of discrepancy is a mismatch between observed and simulated surface temperature patterns over recent decades, due to either natural variability or model deficiencies in simulating historical warming patterns. The nature of the mismatch is such that simulated patterns can lead to more positive radiative feedbacks (higher ICS) relative to those engendered by observed patterns. The magnitude of this effect has not yet been addressed. Here we outline an approach to perform fully commensurate comparisons of climate models with global energy budget observations that take all of the above effects into account. We find that when apples-to-apples comparisons are made, values of ICS in models are

  2. Role of subsurface physics in the assimilation of surface soil moisture observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soil moisture controls the exchange of water and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere and exhibits memory that may be useful for climate prediction at monthly time scales. Though spatially distributed observations of soil moisture are increasingly becoming available from remotely sense...

  3. Climate Impacts of Fire-Induced Land-Surface Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y.; Hao, X.; Qu, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    One of the consequences of wildfires is the changes in land-surface properties such as removal of vegetation. This will change local and regional climate through modifying the land-air heat and water fluxes. This study investigates mechanism by developing and a parameterization of fire-induced land-surface property changes and applying it to modeling of the climate impacts of large wildfires in the United States. Satellite remote sensing was used to quantitatively evaluate the land-surface changes from large fires provided from the Monitoring Trends in Burning Severity (MTBS) dataset. It was found that the changes in land-surface properties induced by fires are very complex, depending on vegetation type and coverage, climate type, season and time after fires. The changes in LAI are remarkable only if the actual values meet a threshold. Large albedo changes occur in winter for fires in cool climate regions. The signs are opposite between the first post-fire year and the following years. Summer day-time temperature increases after fires, while nigh-time temperature changes in various patterns. The changes are larger in forested lands than shrub / grassland lands. In the parameterization scheme, the detected post-fire changes are decomposed into trends using natural exponential functions and fluctuations of periodic variations with the amplitudes also determined by natural exponential functions. The final algorithm is a combination of the trends, periods, and amplitude functions. This scheme is used with Earth system models to simulate the local and regional climate effects of wildfires.

  4. Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Ivy; Storelvmo, Trude; Zelinka, Mark D

    2016-04-08

    Global climate model (GCM) estimates of the equilibrium global mean surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2, measured by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), range from 2.0° to 4.6°C. Clouds are among the leading causes of this uncertainty. Here we show that the ECS can be up to 1.3°C higher in simulations where mixed-phase clouds consisting of ice crystals and supercooled liquid droplets are constrained by global satellite observations. The higher ECS estimates are directly linked to a weakened cloud-phase feedback arising from a decreased cloud glaciation rate in a warmer climate. We point out the need for realistic representations of the supercooled liquid fraction in mixed-phase clouds in GCMs, given the sensitivity of the ECS to the cloud-phase feedback. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  5. Comparison of hydrological simulations of climate change using perturbation of observations and distribution-based scaling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Sonnenborg, Torben; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2011-01-01

    of the HIRHAM4 regional climate model (RCM). The aim of this study was to determine whether the choice of bias-correction method, applied to the RCM data, aff ected the projected hydrological changes. One method consisted of perturbation of observed data (POD) using climate change signals derived from the RCM......Projected climate change eff ects on groundwater and stream discharges were investigated through simulations with a distributed, physically based, surface water–groundwater model. Input to the hydrological model includes precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, and temperature data...... the simulations using both methods, only small differences between the projected changes in hydrological variables for the scenario period were found. Mean annual recharge increased by 15% for the DBS method and 12% for POD, and drain flow increased by 24 and 19%, respectively, while the increases in base flow...

  6. Mapping Surface Broadband Albedo from Satellite Observations: A Review of Literatures on Algorithms and Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Qu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Surface albedo is one of the key controlling geophysical parameters in the surface energy budget studies, and its temporal and spatial variation is closely related to the global climate change and regional weather system due to the albedo feedback mechanism. As an efficient tool for monitoring the surfaces of the Earth, remote sensing is widely used for deriving long-term surface broadband albedo with various geostationary and polar-orbit satellite platforms in recent decades. Moreover, the algorithms for estimating surface broadband albedo from satellite observations, including narrow-to-broadband conversions, bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF angular modeling, direct-estimation algorithm and the algorithms for estimating albedo from geostationary satellite data, are developed and improved. In this paper, we present a comprehensive literature review on algorithms and products for mapping surface broadband albedo with satellite observations and provide a discussion of different algorithms and products in a historical perspective based on citation analysis of the published literature. This paper shows that the observation technologies and accuracy requirement of applications are important, and long-term, global fully-covered (including land, ocean, and sea-ice surfaces, gap-free, surface broadband albedo products with higher spatial and temporal resolution are required for climate change, surface energy budget, and hydrological studies.

  7. A perspective on sustained marine observations for climate modelling and prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunstone, Nick J

    2014-09-28

    Here, I examine some of the many varied ways in which sustained global ocean observations are used in numerical modelling activities. In particular, I focus on the use of ocean observations to initialize predictions in ocean and climate models. Examples are also shown of how models can be used to assess the impact of both current ocean observations and to simulate that of potential new ocean observing platforms. The ocean has never been better observed than it is today and similarly ocean models have never been as capable at representing the real ocean as they are now. However, there remain important unanswered questions that can likely only be addressed via future improvements in ocean observations. In particular, ocean observing systems need to respond to the needs of the burgeoning field of near-term climate predictions. Although new ocean observing platforms promise exciting new discoveries, there is a delicate balance to be made between their funding and that of the current ocean observing system. Here, I identify the need to secure long-term funding for ocean observing platforms as they mature, from a mainly research exercise to an operational system for sustained observation over climate change time scales. At the same time, considerable progress continues to be made via ship-based observing campaigns and I highlight some that are dedicated to addressing uncertainties in key ocean model parametrizations. The use of ocean observations to understand the prominent long time scale changes observed in the North Atlantic is another focus of this paper. The exciting first decade of monitoring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation by the RAPID-MOCHA array is highlighted. The use of ocean and climate models as tools to further probe the drivers of variability seen in such time series is another exciting development. I also discuss the need for a concerted combined effort from climate models and ocean observations in order to understand the current slow

  8. IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Observed Climate Change Impacts Database, Version 2.01

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Observed Climate Change Impacts Database, Version 2.01 contains observed responses to...

  9. Climate change: Conflict of observational science, theory, and politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerhard, L.C.

    2004-01-01

    Debate over whether human activity causes Earth climate change obscures the immensity of the dynamic systems that create and maintain climate on the planet. Anthropocentric debate leads people to believe that they can alter these planetary dynamic systems to prevent that they perceive as negative climate impacts on human civilization. Although politicians offer simplistic remedies, such as the Kyoto Protocol, global climate continues to change naturally. Better planning for the inevitable dislocations that have followed natural global climate changes throughout human history requires us to accept the fact that climate will change, and that human society must adapt to the changes. Over the last decade, the scientific literature reported a shift in emphasis from attempting to build theoretical models of putative human impacts on climate to understanding the planetwide dynamic processes that are the natural climate drivers. The current scientific literature is beginning to report the history of past climate change, the extent of natural climate variability, natural system drivers, and the episodicity of many climate changes. The scientific arguments have broadened from focus upon human effects on climate to include the array of natural phenomena that have driven global climate change for eons. However, significant political issues with long-term social consequences continue their advance. This paper summarizes recent scientific progress in climate science and arguments about human influence on climate. ?? 2004. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

  10. Continuity of Climate Data Records derived from Microwave Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mears, C. A.; Wentz, F. J.; Brewer, M.; Meissner, T.; Ricciardulli, L.

    2017-12-01

    Remote Sensing Systems (www.remss.com) has been producing and distributing microwave climate data products from microwave imagers (SSMI, TMI, AMSR, WindSat, GMI, Aquarius, SMAP) over the global oceans since the launch of the first SSMI in 1987. Interest in these data products has been significant as researchers around the world have downloaded the approximate equivalent of 1 million satellite years of processed data. Users, including NASA, NOAA, US National Laboratories, US Navy, UK Met, ECMWF, JAXA, JMA, CMC, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, as well as many hundreds of other agencies and universities routinely access these microwave data products. The quality of these data records has increased as more observations have become available and inter-calibration techniques have improved. The impending end of missions for WindSat, AMSR-2, and the remaining SSMIs will have significant impact on the quality and continuity of long term microwave climate data records. In addition to the problem of reduced numbers of observations, there is a real danger of losing overlapping observations. Simultaneous operation of satellites, especially when the observations are at similar local crossing times, provides a significant benefit in the effort to inter-calibrate satellites to yield accurate and stable long-term records. The end of WindSat and AMSR-2 will leave us without microwave SSTs in cold water, as there will be no microwave imagers with C-band channels. Microwave SSTs have a crucial advantage over IR SSTs, which is not able to measure SST in clouds or if aerosols are present. The gap in ocean wind vectors will be somewhat mitigated as the European ASCAT C-band scatterometer mission on MetOp is continuing. Nonetheless, the anticipated cease of several microwave satellite radiometers retrieving ocean winds in the coming years will lead to a significant gap in temporal coverage. Atmospheric water vapor, cloud liquid water, and rain rate are all important climate

  11. Surface Airways Observations (SAO) Hourly Data 1928-1948 (CDMP)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The dataset consists of hourly U.S. surface airways observations (SAO). These observations extend as far back as 1928, from the time when commercial aviation began...

  12. Impacts of Future Grassland Changes on Surface Climate in Mongolia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fan Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change caused by land use/cover change (LUCC is becoming a hot topic in current global change, especially the changes caused by the grassland degradation. In this paper, based on the baseline underlying surface data of 1993, the predicted underlying surface data which can be derived through overlaying the grassland degradation information to the map of baseline underlying surface, and the atmospheric forcing data of RCP 6.0 from CMIP5, climatological changes caused by future grassland changes for the years 2010–2020 and 2040–2050 with the Weather Research Forecast model (WRF are simulated. The model-based analysis shows that future grassland degradation will significantly result in regional climate change. The grassland degradation in future could lead to an increasing trend of temperature in most areas and corresponding change range of the annual average temperature of −0.1°C–0.4°C, and it will cause a decreasing trend of precipitation and corresponding change range of the annual average precipitation of 10 mm–50 mm. This study identifies lines of evidence for effects of future grassland degradation on regional climate in Mongolia which provides meaningful decision-making information for the development and strategy plan making in Mongolia.

  13. The enhanced greenhouse signal versus natural variations in observed climate time series: a statistical approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoenwiese, C.D. [J.W. Goethe Univ., Frankfurt (Germany). Inst. for Meteorology and Geophysics

    1995-12-31

    It is a well-known fact that human activities lead to an atmospheric concentration increase of some IR-active trace gases (greenhouse gases GHG) and that this influence enhances the `greenhouse effect`. However, there are major quantitative and regional uncertainties in the related climate model projections and the observational data reflect the whole complex of both anthropogenic and natural forcing of the climate system. This contribution aims at the separation of the anthropogenic enhanced greenhouse signal in observed global surface air temperature data versus other forcing using statistical methods such as multiple (multiforced) regressions and neural networks. The competitive natural forcing considered are volcanic and solar activity, in addition the ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) mechanism. This analysis will be extended also to the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and anthropogenic sulfate formation in the troposphere

  14. Uncertainty information in climate data records from Earth observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchant, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    How to derive and present uncertainty in climate data records (CDRs) has been debated within the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative, in search of common principles applicable across a range of essential climate variables. Various points of consensus have been reached, including the importance of improving provision of uncertainty information and the benefit of adopting international norms of metrology for language around the distinct concepts of uncertainty and error. Providing an estimate of standard uncertainty per datum (or the means to readily calculate it) emerged as baseline good practice, and should be highly relevant to users of CDRs when the uncertainty in data is variable (the usual case). Given this baseline, the role of quality flags is clarified as being complementary to and not repetitive of uncertainty information. Data with high uncertainty are not poor quality if a valid estimate of the uncertainty is available. For CDRs and their applications, the error correlation properties across spatio-temporal scales present important challenges that are not fully solved. Error effects that are negligible in the uncertainty of a single pixel may dominate uncertainty in the large-scale and long-term. A further principle is that uncertainty estimates should themselves be validated. The concepts of estimating and propagating uncertainty are generally acknowledged in geophysical sciences, but less widely practised in Earth observation and development of CDRs. Uncertainty in a CDR depends in part (and usually significantly) on the error covariance of the radiances and auxiliary data used in the retrieval. Typically, error covariance information is not available in the fundamental CDR (FCDR) (i.e., with the level-1 radiances), since provision of adequate level-1 uncertainty information is not yet standard practice. Those deriving CDRs thus cannot propagate the radiance uncertainty to their geophysical products. The FIDUCEO project (www.fiduceo.eu) is

  15. Advancing land surface model development with satellite-based Earth observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Dutra, Emanuel; Trigo, Isabel F.; Balsamo, Gianpaolo

    2017-04-01

    The land surface forms an essential part of the climate system. It interacts with the atmosphere through the exchange of water and energy and hence influences weather and climate, as well as their predictability. Correspondingly, the land surface model (LSM) is an essential part of any weather forecasting system. LSMs rely on partly poorly constrained parameters, due to sparse land surface observations. With the use of newly available land surface temperature observations, we show in this study that novel satellite-derived datasets help to improve LSM configuration, and hence can contribute to improved weather predictability. We use the Hydrology Tiled ECMWF Scheme of Surface Exchanges over Land (HTESSEL) and validate it comprehensively against an array of Earth observation reference datasets, including the new land surface temperature product. This reveals satisfactory model performance in terms of hydrology, but poor performance in terms of land surface temperature. This is due to inconsistencies of process representations in the model as identified from an analysis of perturbed parameter simulations. We show that HTESSEL can be more robustly calibrated with multiple instead of single reference datasets as this mitigates the impact of the structural inconsistencies. Finally, performing coupled global weather forecasts we find that a more robust calibration of HTESSEL also contributes to improved weather forecast skills. In summary, new satellite-based Earth observations are shown to enhance the multi-dataset calibration of LSMs, thereby improving the representation of insufficiently captured processes, advancing weather predictability and understanding of climate system feedbacks. Orth, R., E. Dutra, I. F. Trigo, and G. Balsamo (2016): Advancing land surface model development with satellite-based Earth observations. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-628

  16. Rapid increase of observed DIC and pCO(2) in the surface waters of the North Sea in the 2001-2011 decade ascribed to climate change superimposed by biological processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clargo, Nicola M.; Salt, Lesley A.; Thomas, Helmuth; de Baar, Hein J.W.

    2015-01-01

    The CO2 system in the North Sea over the 2001-2011 decade was investigated using four comprehensive basin-wide datasets covering the late summer periods of 2001, 2005, 2008 and 2011. We find that rises in surface water DIC and pCO(2) exceeded concurrent rises in atmospheric pCO(2), which we

  17. Evaluating climate model performance with various parameter sets using observations over the recent past

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. F. Loutre

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Many sources of uncertainty limit the accuracy of climate projections. Among them, we focus here on the parameter uncertainty, i.e. the imperfect knowledge of the values of many physical parameters in a climate model. Therefore, we use LOVECLIM, a global three-dimensional Earth system model of intermediate complexity and vary several parameters within a range based on the expert judgement of model developers. Nine climatic parameter sets and three carbon cycle parameter sets are selected because they yield present-day climate simulations coherent with observations and they cover a wide range of climate responses to doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration and freshwater flux perturbation in the North Atlantic. Moreover, they also lead to a large range of atmospheric CO2 concentrations in response to prescribed emissions. Consequently, we have at our disposal 27 alternative versions of LOVECLIM (each corresponding to one parameter set that provide very different responses to some climate forcings. The 27 model versions are then used to illustrate the range of responses provided over the recent past, to compare the time evolution of climate variables over the time interval for which they are available (the last few decades up to more than one century and to identify the outliers and the "best" versions over that particular time span. For example, between 1979 and 2005, the simulated global annual mean surface temperature increase ranges from 0.24 °C to 0.64 °C, while the simulated increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration varies between 40 and 50 ppmv. Measurements over the same period indicate an increase in global annual mean surface temperature of 0.45 °C (Brohan et al., 2006 and an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration of 44 ppmv (Enting et al., 1994; GLOBALVIEW-CO2, 2006. Only a few parameter sets yield simulations that reproduce the observed key variables of the climate system over the last

  18. Land surface and climate parameters and malaria features in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liou, Y. A.; Anh, N. K.

    2017-12-01

    Land surface parameters may affect local microclimate, which in turn alters the development of mosquito habitats and transmission risks (soil-vegetation-atmosphere-vector borne diseases). Forest malaria is a chromic issue in Southeast Asian countries, in particular, such as Vietnam (in 1991, approximate 2 million cases and 4,646 deaths were reported (https://sites.path.org)). Vietnam has lowlands, sub-tropical high humidity, and dense forests, resulting in wide-scale distribution and high biting rate of mosquitos in Vietnam, becoming a challenging and out of control scenario, especially in Vietnamese Central Highland region. It is known that Vietnam's economy mainly relies on agriculture and malaria is commonly associated with poverty. There is a strong demand to investigate the relationship between land surface parameters (land cover, soil moisture, land surface temperature, etc.) and climatic variables (precipitation, humidity, evapotranspiration, etc.) in association with malaria distribution. GIS and remote sensing have been proven their powerful potentials in supporting environmental and health studies. The objective of this study aims to analyze physical attributes of land surface and climate parameters and their links with malaria features. The outcomes are expected to illustrate how remotely sensed data has been utilized in geohealth applications, surveillance, and health risk mapping. In addition, a platform with promising possibilities of allowing disease early-warning systems with citizen participation will be proposed.

  19. Climate effects of land use changes and anthropogenic impact on surface radiation

    OpenAIRE

    Kvalevåg, Maria Malene

    2009-01-01

    The fourth assessment report on climate change (AR4) was released in 2007 and the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) derive an increase of 0.74 ± 0.18°C in the 100 year global mean surface temperature linear trend between 1906 – 2005. IPCC state further that “there is very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming” (IPCC, 2007). The observed global warming has occurred during the same period as a considerable increa...

  20. Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L; Harte, John

    2018-02-01

    Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant ( Androsace septentrionalis ). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues.

  1. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  2. Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L.; Harte, John

    2018-01-01

    Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant (Androsace septentrionalis). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues. PMID:29507884

  3. Atmospheric impacts on climatic variability of surface incident solar radiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. C. Wang

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The Earth's climate is driven by surface incident solar radiation (Rs. Direct measurements have shown that Rs has undergone significant decadal variations. However, a large fraction of the global land surface is not covered by these observations. Satellite-derived Rs has a good global coverage but is of low accuracy in its depiction of decadal variability. This paper shows that daily to decadal variations of Rs, from both aerosols and cloud properties, can be accurately estimated using globally available measurements of Sunshine Duration (SunDu. In particular, SunDu shows that since the late 1980's Rs has brightened over Europe due to decreases in aerosols but dimmed over China due to their increases. We found that variation of cloud cover determines Rs at a monthly scale but that aerosols determine the variability of Rs at a decadal time scale, in particular, over Europe and China. Because of its global availability and long-term history, SunDu can provide an accurate and continuous proxy record of Rs, filling in values for the blank areas that are not covered by direct measurements. Compared to its direct measurement, Rs from SunDu appears to be less sensitive to instrument replacement and calibration, and shows that the widely reported sharp increase in Rs during the early 1990s in China was a result of instrument replacement. By merging direct measurements collected by Global Energy Budget Archive with those derived from SunDu, we obtained a good coverage of Rs over the Northern Hemisphere. From this data, the average increase of Rs from 1982 to 2008 is estimated to be 0.87 W m−2 per decade.

  4. Impacts of Climate Variability on Surface Energy and Water Budgets in sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Laura Suzanne

    According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, climate change will exacerbate current climate and non-climate stressors on agricultural systems in sub-Saharan Africa. This will adversely impact food security and the wellbeing of communities. Small-scale farmers grow more than 90 percent of the food produced in the region and many households depend on productive local growing conditions to support for their families. A better understanding of recent and near future climate constraints is important for identifying future food security risks and locally-appropriate adaptation strategies. This dissertation research examines impacts of weather and climate on vegetation productivity in geographically diverse areas of east Africa and the semi-arid Sahel. The focus of this research is how surface energy and water budgets respond to variations in rainfall and temperature. It asks the following questions: Where will warmer temperature pose a hazard to rainfed agriculture in the Sahel in the next 20 years? What environment and weather conditions led to above average surface temperature during the recent decade in east Africa? How have declines in rainfall since the 1980s impacted vegetation productivity and hydrology in Tanzania? The research incorporates a variety of earth observation data, including historical records from in situ, model-derived, and satellite-observed sources and projections from global climate models. A major contribution is the identification of specific areas, mainly in semi-arid climate zones, where increases in temperature and decreases to rainfall have large negative impacts on vegetation productivity. The research also presents new methods for evaluating land-atmosphere interactions in the context of hazards to vegetation.

  5. Observation of optimal gecko's adhesion on nanorough surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugno, Nicola M; Lepore, Emiliano

    2008-12-01

    In this letter we report experimental observations on the times of adhesion of living Tokay geckos (Gekko geckos) on polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) inverted surfaces. Two different geckos (male and female) and three surfaces with different root mean square (RMS) roughness (RMS=42, 618 and 931 nm) have been considered, for a total of 72 observations. The measured data are proved to be statistically significant, following the Weibull Statistics with coefficients of correlation between 0.781 and 0.955. The unexpected result is the observation of a maximal gecko adhesion on the surface with intermediate roughness of RMS=618 nm, that we note has waviness comparable to the seta size.

  6. An explanation for the different climate sensitivities of land and ocean surfaces based on the diurnal cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleidon, Axel; Renner, Maik

    2017-09-01

    Observations and climate model simulations consistently show a higher climate sensitivity of land surfaces compared to ocean surfaces. Here we show that this difference in temperature sensitivity can be explained by the different means by which the diurnal variation in solar radiation is buffered. While ocean surfaces buffer the diurnal variations by heat storage changes below the surface, land surfaces buffer it mostly by heat storage changes above the surface in the lower atmosphere that are reflected in the diurnal growth of a convective boundary layer. Storage changes below the surface allow the ocean surface-atmosphere system to maintain turbulent fluxes over day and night, while the land surface-atmosphere system maintains turbulent fluxes only during the daytime hours, when the surface is heated by absorption of solar radiation. This shorter duration of turbulent fluxes on land results in a greater sensitivity of the land surface-atmosphere system to changes in the greenhouse forcing because nighttime temperatures are shaped by radiative exchange only, which are more sensitive to changes in greenhouse forcing. We use a simple, analytic energy balance model of the surface-atmosphere system in which turbulent fluxes are constrained by the maximum power limit to estimate the effects of these different means to buffer the diurnal cycle on the resulting temperature sensitivities. The model predicts that land surfaces have a 50 % greater climate sensitivity than ocean surfaces, and that the nighttime temperatures on land increase about twice as much as daytime temperatures because of the absence of turbulent fluxes at night. Both predictions compare very well with observations and CMIP5 climate model simulations. Hence, the greater climate sensitivity of land surfaces can be explained by its buffering of diurnal variations in solar radiation in the lower atmosphere.

  7. Impacts of land cover transitions on surface temperature in China based on satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yuzhen; Liang, Shunlin

    2018-02-01

    China has experienced intense land use and land cover changes during the past several decades, which have exerted significant influences on climate change. Previous studies exploring related climatic effects have focused mainly on one or two specific land use changes, or have considered all land use and land cover change types together without distinguishing their individual impacts, and few have examined the physical processes of the mechanism through which land use changes affect surface temperature. However, in this study, we considered satellite-derived data of multiple land cover changes and transitions in China. The objective was to obtain observational evidence of the climatic effects of land cover transitions in China by exploring how they affect surface temperature and to what degree they influence it through the modification of biophysical processes, with an emphasis on changes in surface albedo and evapotranspiration (ET). To achieve this goal, we quantified the changes in albedo, ET, and surface temperature in the transition areas, examined their correlations with temperature change, and calculated the contributions of different land use transitions to surface temperature change via changes in albedo and ET. Results suggested that land cover transitions from cropland to urban land increased land surface temperature (LST) during both daytime and nighttime by 0.18 and 0.01 K, respectively. Conversely, the transition of forest to cropland tended to decrease surface temperature by 0.53 K during the day and by 0.07 K at night, mainly through changes in surface albedo. Decreases in both daytime and nighttime LST were observed over regions of grassland to forest transition, corresponding to average values of 0.44 and 0.20 K, respectively, predominantly controlled by changes in ET. These results highlight the necessity to consider the individual climatic effects of different land cover transitions or conversions in climate research studies. This short

  8. OBSERVED ASTEROID SURFACE AREA IN THE THERMAL INFRARED

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nugent, C. R. [Infrared Processing and Analysis Center, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Mainzer, A.; Masiero, J.; Bauer, J.; Kramer, E.; Sonnett, S. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Wright, E. L. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States); Grav, T. [Planetary Science Institute, Tucson, AZ (United States)

    2017-02-01

    The rapid accumulation of thermal infrared observations and shape models of asteroids has led to increased interest in thermophysical modeling. Most of these infrared observations are unresolved. We consider what fraction of an asteroid’s surface area contributes the bulk of the emitted thermal flux for two model asteroids of different shapes over a range of thermal parameters. The resulting observed surface in the infrared is generally more fragmented than the area observed in visible wavelengths, indicating high sensitivity to shape. For objects with low values of the thermal parameter, small fractions of the surface contribute the majority of thermally emitted flux. Calculating observed areas could enable the production of spatially resolved thermal inertia maps from non-resolved observations of asteroids.

  9. Surface Airways Observations (SAO) Hourly Data (1965-1981) (CDMP)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The dataset consists primarily of U.S. surface airways observations (SAO) data beginning in 1965 and extending through 1981. Note that a few stations have already...

  10. Observations of the atmospheric surface layer parameters over a ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    1999-08-11

    Aug 11, 1999 ... This paper discusses the observations of the Atmospheric Surface Layer (ASL) parameters dur- ing the solar eclipse of August 11th, 1999. Intensive surface layer experiments were conducted at. Ahmedabad (23◦21 N, 72◦36 E), the western part of India, which was close to the totality path. This rare event ...

  11. Polar clouds and radiation in satellite observations, reanalyses, and climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Van Tricht, Kristof; Lhermitte, Stef; L'Ecuyer, Tristan S.

    2017-04-01

    Clouds play a pivotal role in the surface energy budget of the polar regions. Here we use two largely independent data sets of cloud and surface downwelling radiation observations derived by satellite remote sensing (2007-2010) to evaluate simulated clouds and radiation over both polar ice sheets and oceans in state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalyses (ERA-Interim and Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications-2) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model ensemble. First, we show that, compared to Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System-Energy Balanced and Filled, CloudSat-CALIPSO better represents cloud liquid and ice water path over high latitudes, owing to its recent explicit determination of cloud phase that will be part of its new R05 release. The reanalyses and climate models disagree widely on the amount of cloud liquid and ice in the polar regions. Compared to the observations, we find significant but inconsistent biases in the model simulations of cloud liquid and ice water, as well as in the downwelling radiation components. The CMIP5 models display a wide range of cloud characteristics of the polar regions, especially with regard to cloud liquid water, limiting the representativeness of the multimodel mean. A few CMIP5 models (CNRM, GISS, GFDL, and IPSL_CM5b) clearly outperform the others, which enhances credibility in their projected future cloud and radiation changes over high latitudes. Given the rapid changes in polar regions and global feedbacks involved, future climate model developments should target improved representation of polar clouds. To that end, remote sensing observations are crucial, in spite of large remaining observational uncertainties, which is evidenced by the substantial differences between the two data sets.

  12. Dedicated Low Latitude Diurnal CO2 Frost Observation Campaigns by the Mars Climate Sounder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piqueux, S.; Kass, D. M.; Kleinboehl, A.; Hayne, P. O.; Heavens, N. G.; McCleese, D. J.; Schofield, J. T.; Shirley, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    In December 2016 (Ls≈280, MY33) and July 2017 (Ls≈30, MY34), the Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) onboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) conducted two distinct observation campaigns. The first one aimed at 1) confirming the presence of low latitude diurnal CO2 frost on Mars, and 2) refining the estimated mass of carbon dioxide condensed at the surface, whereas the second campaign was designed to 3) search for temporally and spatially varying spectral characteristics indicative of frost properties (i.e., crystal size, contamination, etc.) and relationship to the regolith. To meet these goals, MCS acquired thermal infrared observations of the surface and atmosphere at variable local times (≈1.70-3.80 h Local True Solar Time) and in the 10°-50°N latitude band where very low thermal inertia material (<< 100 Jm-2K-1s-0.5) is present. Atmospherically corrected surface brightness temperatures were retrieved in a wavelength region around 32 μm (MCS channel B1) as well as at 12 μm, 16 μm and 22 μm (MCS channels A4, A1, A5) where possible. A preliminary analysis of the data suggests a good general agreement between these new observations and earlier predictions in terms of frost distribution and spectral properties. In addition, pre-frost deposition surface cooling rates are found to be consistent with those predicted by numerical models (i.e., 1-2K per hour). Finally, we observe buffered surface temperatures near the local frost point, indicating a surface emissivity ≈1. (i.e., optically thin frost layers, or dust contaminated frost, or slab-like ice) and no discernable frost metamorphism. We will present a detailed analysis of these new and unique observations, and elaborate on the potential relationship between the regolith and this recurring frost cycle.

  13. Modelling land surface fluxes of CO2 in response to climate change and nitrogen deposition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kristina; Ambelas Skjøth, Carsten; Geels, Camilla

    Climate change, land use variations, and impacts of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition represent uncertainties for the prediction of future greenhouse gas exchange between land surfaces and the atmosphere as the mechanisms describing nutritional effects are not well developed in climate...... climate feedback mechanisms of CO2 between changes in management, land use practise, and climate change....

  14. Global Model Comparison with NOAA Observed Surface Ozone to Understand Transport in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; McClure-Begley, A.; Tummon, F.; Tilmes, S.; Yudina, A.; Crepinsek, S.; Uttal, T.

    2016-12-01

    The Arctic region is rapidly gaining interest and support for scientific studies to help understand and characterize the processes, sources, and chemical composition of the Arctic environment. In order to understand the Arctic climate system and the changes that are occurring, it is imperative to know the behavior and impact of atmospheric constituents. As a secondary pollutant which impacts the oxidation capacity and radiative forcing of the atmosphere, ozone is an imperative species to characterize. Global atmospheric models help to confirm and understand the influence of long-distance transport on local ozone conditions. This analysis highlights the winter season when ozone conditions are not being driven by photochemical influence, and transport is the prevalent means of ozone variation. In order to ensure adequate representation of ozone conditions and source regions, model comparison verifies the ability of models to represent the behavior of ozone at the surface. Ozone mixing ratios observed from Barrow, Alaska and Summit, Greenland, are critical observations to provide fundamental knowledge of the behavior and trends of ground-level ozone in the Arctic. The observed surface ozone and wind data are compared against two different global climate-chemistry models to assess the ability for models to simulate surface ozone in the arctic region. The CCM SOCOL (Modeling tools for studies of Solar Climate Ozone Links) and Community Earth System Model (CESM1) CAM4-chem are compared to observational measurements. Comparisons between the model and observations are used as the first step in understanding of the long-range transport contribution to ozone variability in the boundary layer of the Arctic environment. An improvement in agreement between observations and chemistry-climate hind cast is found when the model is forced with reanalysis wind conditions.

  15. Interactive Computing and Processing of NASA Land Surface Observations Using Google Earth Engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molthan, Andrew; Burks, Jason; Bell, Jordan

    2016-01-01

    Google's Earth Engine offers a "big data" approach to processing large volumes of NASA and other remote sensing products. h\\ps://earthengine.google.com/ Interfaces include a Javascript or Python-based API, useful for accessing and processing over large periods of record for Landsat and MODIS observations. Other data sets are frequently added, including weather and climate model data sets, etc. Demonstrations here focus on exploratory efforts to perform land surface change detection related to severe weather, and other disaster events.

  16. Some observations on boiling heat transfer with surface oscillation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miyashita, H.

    1992-01-01

    The effects of surface oscillation on pool boiling heat transfer are experimentally studied. Experiments were performed in saturated ethanol and distilled water, covering the range from nucleate to film boiling except in the transition region. Two different geometries were employed as the heating surface with the same wetting area, stainless steel pipe and molybdenum ribbon. The results confirm earlier work on the effect of surface oscillation especially in lower heat flux region of nucleate boiling. Interesting boiling behavior during surface oscillation is observed, which was not referred to in previous work. (2 figures) (Author)

  17. Land surface contribution to climate predictability: the long way from early evidence to improved forecast skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douville, Hervé

    2013-04-01

    Seasonal forecasts performance over most land areas remains relatively weak, particularly in the mid-latitudes where the interannual ocean variability has a lesser influence than in the tropics. Yet, many observational and numerical studies suggest that there is a fraction of predictability that is still untapped over land at the monthly to seasonal time scales, due to both local and remote land surface effects. Soil moisture and snow mass anomalies may have a strong signature in the land surface energy budget and thereby influence not only surface temperature, but also precipitation through changes in surface evaporation and/or moisture convergence. Land surface anomalies may also trigger planetary waves that can have remote effects on seasonal mean climate. This talk will first illustrate some potential land surface impacts on climate predictability using both statistical and numerical evidence. Then, the limitations of such studies and the practical difficulties for taking advantage of the land surface memory will be presented, as well as on-going efforts for adressing these issues at both European (i.e., SPECS) and international (i.e., GLACE) levels.

  18. Satellite-Observed Energy Budget Change of Deforestation in Northeastern China and its Climate Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tian He

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Large-scale deforestation may affect the surface energy budget and consequently climate by changing the physical properties of the land surface, namely biophysical effects. This study presents the potential energy budget change caused by deforestation in Northeastern China and its climate implications, which was evaluated by quantifying the differences in MODIS-observed surface physical properties between cropland and forest. We used the MODIS land products for the period of 2001–2010 in 112 cells of 0.75° × 0.75° each, within which only best quality satellite pixels over the pure forest and cropland pixels are selected for comparison. It is estimated that cropland has a winter (summer mean albedo of 0.38 (0.16, which is 0.15 (0.02 higher than that of forest. Due to the higher albedo, cropland absorbs 16.84 W∙m−2 (3.08 W∙m−2 less shortwave radiation than forest. Compared to forest, cropland also absorbs 8.79 W∙m−2 more longwave radiation in winter and 8.12 W∙m−2 less longwave radiation in summer. In total, the surface net radiation of cropland is 7.53 W∙m−2 (11.2 W∙m−2 less than that of forest in winter (summer. Along with these radiation changes, the latent heat flux through evapotranspiration over cropland is less than that over forest, especially in summer (−19.12 W∙m−2. Average sensible heat flux increases in summer (7.92 W∙m−2 and decreases in winter (−8.17 W∙m−2, suggesting that conversion of forest to cropland may lead to warming in summer and cooling in winter in Northeastern China. However, the annual net climate effect is not notable because of the opposite sign of the energy budget change in summer and winter.

  19. Observed climate variability over Chad using multiple observational and reanalysis datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maharana, Pyarimohan; Abdel-Lathif, Ahmat Younous; Pattnayak, Kanhu Charan

    2018-03-01

    Chad is the largest of Africa's landlocked countries and one of the least studied region of the African continent. The major portion of Chad lies in the Sahel region, which is known for its rapid climate change. In this study, multiple observational datasets are analyzed from 1950 to 2014, in order to examine the trend of precipitation and temperature along with their variability over Chad to understand possible impacts of climate change over this region. Trend analysis of the climatic fields has been carried out using Mann-Kendall test. The precipitation over Chad is mostly contributed during summer by West African Monsoon, with maximum northward limit of 18° N. The Atlantic Ocean as well as the Mediterranean Sea are the major source of moisture for the summer rainfall over Chad. Based on the rainfall time series, the entire study period has been divided in to wet (1950 to 1965), dry (1966 to 1990) and recovery period (1991 to 2014). The rainfall has decreased drastically for almost 3 decades during the dry period resulted into various drought years. The temperature increases at a rate of 0.15 °C/decade during the entire period of analysis. The seasonal rainfall as well as temperature plays a major role in the change of land use/cover. The decrease of monsoon rainfall during the dry period reduces the C4 cover drastically; this reduction of C4 grass cover leads to increase of C3 grass cover. The slow revival of rainfall is still not good enough for the increase of shrub cover but it favors the gradual reduction of bare land over Chad.

  20. NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of Ocean Near Surface Atmospheric Properties, Version 2

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Ocean Surface Bundle (OSB) Climate Data Record (CDR) consist of three parts: sea surface temperature; near-surface wind speed, air temperature, and specific...

  1. NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of Sea Surface Temperature - WHOI, Version 2

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Ocean Surface Bundle (OSB) Climate Data Record (CDR) consist of three parts: sea surface temperature, near-surface atmospheric properties, and heat fluxes....

  2. Improved Analysis of Earth System Models and Observations using Simple Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadiga, B. T.; Urban, N. M.

    2016-12-01

    Earth system models (ESM) are the most comprehensive tools we have to study climate change and develop climate projections. However, the computational infrastructure required and the cost incurred in running such ESMs precludes direct use of such models in conjunction with a wide variety of tools that can further our understanding of climate. Here we are referring to tools that range from dynamical systems tools that give insight into underlying flow structure and topology to tools that come from various applied mathematical and statistical techniques and are central to quantifying stability, sensitivity, uncertainty and predictability to machine learning tools that are now being rapidly developed or improved. Our approach to facilitate the use of such models is to analyze output of ESM experiments (cf. CMIP) using a range of simpler models that consider integral balances of important quantities such as mass and/or energy in a Bayesian framework.We highlight the use of this approach in the context of the uptake of heat by the world oceans in the ongoing global warming. Indeed, since in excess of 90% of the anomalous radiative forcing due greenhouse gas emissions is sequestered in the world oceans, the nature of ocean heat uptake crucially determines the surface warming that is realized (cf. climate sensitivity). Nevertheless, ESMs themselves are never run long enough to directly assess climate sensitivity. So, we consider a range of models based on integral balances--balances that have to be realized in all first-principles based models of the climate system including the most detailed state-of-the art climate simulations. The models range from simple models of energy balance to those that consider dynamically important ocean processes such as the conveyor-belt circulation (Meridional Overturning Circulation, MOC), North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation, Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and eddy mixing. Results from Bayesian analysis of such models using

  3. Clouds, Radiation, and Climate from the Earth Observing System

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Michael D.

    1998-01-01

    In this presentation, I will present and discuss key areas of scientific uncertainty in understanding climate and global change, focusing on specific examples of how EOS will contribute to improving our understanding of global change. In particular, I will describe how scientists intend to use MODIS, an earth-viewing cross-track scanning spectroradiometer to be flown on the Earth Observing System (EOS) AM-1 satellite to be launched in summer 1998, for the remote sensing of cloud properties. MODIS will scan a swath width sufficient to provide nearly complete global coverage every two days from a polar-orbiting, sun-synchronous, platform at an altitude of 705 km, and will provide images in 36 spectral bands between 0.415 and 14-235 microns with spatial resolutions of 250 m (2 bands), 500 m (5 bands) and 1000 m (29 bands). These bands have been carefully selected to enable advanced studies of land, ocean, and atmosphere processes. As part of this presentation, I will review the various methods that have been developed for the remote sensing of atmospheric properties using MODIS, placing primary emphasis on the principal atmospheric applications of determining the optical, microphysical and physical properties of clouds and aerosol particles from spectral reflection and thermal emission measurements. Additional applications of MODIS data to the determination of precipitable water over land will be described, as will the MODIS cloud mask used to distinguish clouds, clear sky, heavy aerosol, shadows on the ground, and fires. The physical principles behind the determination of each of these atmospheric products will be described, together with an example of their application to aircraft and/or satellite measurements.

  4. Coupled Surface and Groundwater Hydrological Modeling in a Changing Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridhar, Venkataramana; Billah, Mirza M; Hildreth, John W

    2017-11-09

    Many current watershed modeling efforts now incorporate surface water and groundwater for managing water resources since the exchanges between groundwater and surface water need a special focus considering the changing climate. The influence of groundwater dynamics on water and energy balance components is investigated in the Snake River Basin (SRB) by coupling the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and MODFLOW models (VIC-MF) for the period of 1986 through 2042. A 4.4% increase in base flows and a 10.3% decrease in peak flows are estimated by VIC-MF compared to the VIC model in SRB. The VIC-MF model shows significant improvement in the streamflow simulation (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency [NSE] of 0.84) at King Hill, where the VIC model could not capture the effect of spring discharge in the streamflow simulation (NSE of -0.30); however, the streamflow estimates show an overall decreasing trend. Two climate scenarios representing median and high radiative-forcings such as representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 show an average increase in the water table elevations between 2.1 and 2.6 m (6.9 and 8.5 feet) through the year 2042. The spatial patterns of these exchanges show a higher groundwater elevation of 15 m (50 feet) in the downstream area and a lower elevation of up to 3 m (10 feet) in the upstream area. Broadly, this study supports results of previous work demonstrating that integrated assessment of groundwater-surface water enables stakeholders to balance pumping, recharge and base flow needs and to manage the watersheds that are subjected to human pressures more sustainably. © 2017, National Ground Water Association.

  5. On the importance of observational data properties when assessing regional climate model performance of extreme precipitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Christensen, Ole Bøssing

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, there has been an increase in the number of climate studies addressing changes in extreme precipitation. A common step in these studies involves the assessment of the climate model performance. This is often measured by comparing climate model output with observational data. In t...

  6. Would the ‘real’ observed dataset stand up? A critical examination of eight observed gridded climate datasets for China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Duan, Qingyun; Kong, Dongxian; Ye, Aizhong; Di, Zhenhua; Gong, Wei

    2014-01-01

    This research compared and evaluated the spatio-temporal similarities and differences of eight widely used gridded datasets. The datasets include daily precipitation over East Asia (EA), the Climate Research Unit (CRU) product, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) product, the University of Delaware (UDEL) product, Precipitation Reconstruction over Land (PREC/L), the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational (APHRO) product, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) dataset from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the National Meteorological Information Center dataset from the China Meteorological Administration (CN05). The meteorological variables focus on surface air temperature (SAT) or precipitation (PR) in China. All datasets presented general agreement on the whole spatio-temporal scale, but some differences appeared for specific periods and regions. On a temporal scale, EA shows the highest amount of PR, while APHRO shows the lowest. CRU and UDEL show higher SAT than IAP or CN05. On a spatial scale, the most significant differences occur in western China for PR and SAT. For PR, the difference between EA and CRU is the largest. When compared with CN05, CRU shows higher SAT in the central and southern Northwest river drainage basin, UDEL exhibits higher SAT over the Southwest river drainage system, and IAP has lower SAT in the Tibetan Plateau. The differences in annual mean PR and SAT primarily come from summer and winter, respectively. Finally, potential factors impacting agreement among gridded climate datasets are discussed, including raw data sources, quality control (QC) schemes, orographic correction, and interpolation techniques. The implications and challenges of these results for climate research are also briefly addressed. (paper)

  7. Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Woo Lee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM, namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs, Regional Model Program (RMP. The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070 simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

  8. Ansback AHP, Germany Limited Surface Observations Climatic Summary (LISOCS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-09-01

    AL ., I V PSYCHROMETRIC SUMMARY ra ,. , a’ . .. MIT BULB TEMPERATURE DEPRESION (P) TOTAL TOTAL C 2,3 4 7 1 9.10 It 1213 14 15 16 17-1619 20*21 22 23...lt* a~ 4 * 4* 1lcl3 *,~ i, - . . . . . . ... . .... ... . .. . . * : .. .. . .... T "PSYCHROMETRIC SUMMARY - - ., WIT IUL$ ’IMPIIATUIE DEPRESION (F

  9. Baumholder, Germany (West), Limited Surface Observations Climatic Summary (LISOCS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-01-09

    bulb temperature depression versus dry-bulb tempera- ture, means and standard deviations of dry-bulb, vet-bulb and dew point temperatures and relative...6.2 5.9 ŕ 1. 1.. Z.*_ 305 __ Iam 1.2 2.6’ .5___ __ ___ __ . 1 1.14 1-. - 2.4 3.4t st...provided. a. The maln body of the summary consists of a bivarlate percentage frequency distribution of vet-bulb depression In 17 classes spread

  10. Surface Observation Climatic Summaries (SOCS) for Tinker AFB, Oklahoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-06-01

    313 4’ 9 C 4 fE 55 TD T AL M F A ME DI A 1 0.00 ... N Tr R3 03.2 6, .’ 3.7 4 3.7 4.2 4.) 1) 6 4.4 4.0 II. ) 5. 5 39. ? .. .1~~4 l.3 5.0 • b ’,.] 4.0...111 t1 7 .0 I / I / I / 7.4 q. IF IZ4 QAI rlN I~ *t5*oooo *m 5o 5o 5*o 5o oo* o55o54o5454o.*5 o4o555.455. o.5.5 ooo oo*.*5 oe5 oo5*5 oo o ’~~~~~ T, T...EZf 1’,, J-<LY :F.JTF4 A;, , , 3 ? Z R p r tx i j ( i ] ’F C > D : ’* 4 = ’ 7 ; - - ’ : " ,MIT Td 1 F rJS 1;!-21 , , Ŗ 4 .5-Z 31)- ’ .4 3-. 4:’ -4n qL

  11. Finthen AAF, Germany (West) Limited Surface Observations Climatic Summary (LISOCS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-08-05

    Us _DTICC-3 vnUTON STATEMENT A FEDERAL BUILDING AELECTED LAs uJibu -o = pulicted J ASHEVILLE, N. C. OCT8 1983J 83 10 05 168 • - -. . *-- ! •~ -n4Ir...5.2 E~ 22. . 2.5 -.2 7.7 5. ISE_ ___ ___ 3.5 5.4 SSE__ ___ .9 5.6_ _____ I___ . _ 1 10.0 . NUBE Of 1S0.4It4 9.3 WNS.1 .t. 1. .1 19 06. . USANWA 0-87 .4...57.91 58.7 59.5 59.5i59.5 59.5 5 59.’ 𔃿 5 9.5.,6 It 6. t 53 .7 58.7 59.5, 60.3 60.3 60.3 60 6 6 3 6.3! 60.3’ 60. 3 5" 41.1 4o.e 5 3. La 58.t 63.0

  12. Surface Observation Climatic Summaries for McChord AFB Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-07-01

    0 .0 .0 .0 TRCE .0 f6 .6 __ 2_.. .. Q .. . __ .3 TR A n - _5.9 .- Z3, - ) 0 , (N T RA C: .9 .0 .3 .0 .0 .0 .2 .3...t 72-0 ....- 930 . .. . .. 7 .2 _ .. .....-3 .. .. i3 O_..... 1 72.) 1.0 7440 ...................... * aCCA *S& - . - -. & -- MO NLi AP-R iJR&j L

  13. Climate trends in the Arctic as observed from space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comiso, Josefino C; Hall, Dorothy K

    2014-05-01

    The Arctic is a region in transformation. Warming in the region has been amplified, as expected from ice-albedo feedback effects, with the rate of warming observed to be ∼0.60 ± 0.07°C/decade in the Arctic (>64°N) compared to ∼0.17°C/decade globally during the last three decades. This increase in surface temperature is manifested in all components of the cryosphere. In particular, the sea ice extent has been declining at the rate of ∼3.8%/decade, whereas the perennial ice (represented by summer ice minimum) is declining at a much greater rate of ∼11.5%/decade. Spring snow cover has also been observed to be declining by -2.12%/decade for the period 1967-2012. The Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass at the rate of ∼34.0 Gt/year (sea level equivalence of 0.09 mm/year) during the period from 1992 to 2011, but for the period 2002-2011, a higher rate of mass loss of ∼215 Gt/year has been observed. Also, the mass of glaciers worldwide declined at the rate of 226 Gt/year from 1971 to 2009 and 275 Gt/year from 1993 to 2009. Increases in permafrost temperature have also been measured in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere while a thickening of the active layer that overlies permafrost and a thinning of seasonally frozen ground has also been reported. To gain insight into these changes, comparative analysis with trends in clouds, albedo, and the Arctic Oscillation is also presented. How to cite this article: WIREs Clim Change 2014, 5:389�409. doi: 10.1002/wcc.277.

  14. Climate Trends in the Arctic as Observed from Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comiso, Josefino C.; Hall, Dorothy K.

    2014-01-01

    The Arctic is a region in transformation. Warming in the region has been amplified, as expected from ice-albedo feedback effects, with the rate of warming observed to be approx. 0.60+/-0.07 C/decade in the Arctic (>64degN) compared to approx. 0.17 C/decade globally during the last three decades. This increase in surface temperature is manifested in all components of the cryosphere. In particular, the sea ice extent has been declining at the rate of approx. 3.8%/decade, whereas the perennial ice (represented by summer ice minimum) is declining at a much greater rate of approx.11.5%/decade. Spring snow cover has also been observed to be declining by -2.12%/decade for the period 1967-2012. The Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass at the rate of approx. 34.0Gt/year (sea level equivalence of 0.09 mm/year) during the period from 1992 to 2011, but for the period 2002-2011, a higher rate of mass loss of approx. 215 Gt/year has been observed. Also, the mass of glaciers worldwide declined at the rate of 226 Gt/year from 1971 to 2009 and 275 Gt/year from 1993 to 2009. Increases in permafrost temperature have also been measured in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere while a thickening of the active layer that overlies permafrost and a thinning of seasonally frozen ground has also been reported. To gain insight into these changes, comparative analysis with trends in clouds, albedo, and the Arctic Oscillation is also presented.

  15. Biological and Environmental Research: Climate and Environmental Sciences Division: U.S./European Workshop on Climate Change Challenges and Observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mather, James [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; McCord, Raymond [Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Sisterson, Doug [Argonne National Laboratory; Voyles, Jimmy [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

    2012-11-08

    The workshop aimed to identify outstanding climate change science questions and the observational strategies for addressing them. The scientific focus was clouds, aerosols, and precipitation, and the required ground- and aerial-based observations. The workshop findings will be useful input for setting priorities within the Department of Energy (DOE) and the participating European centers. This joint workshop was envisioned as the first step in enhancing the collaboration among these climate research activities needed to better serve the science community.

  16. The Grand Challenges of WCRP and the Climate Observing System of the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brasseur, G. P.

    2017-12-01

    The successful implementation the Paris agreement on climate change (COP21) calls for a well-designed global monitoring system of essential climate variables, climate processes and Earth system budgets. The Grand Challenges implemented by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) provide an opportunity to investigate issues of high societal relevance, directly related to sea level rise, droughts, floods, extreme heat events, food security, and fresh water availability. These challenges would directly benefit from a well-designed suite of systematic climate observations. Quantification of the evolution of the global energy, water and carbon budgets as well as the development and the production of near-term and regional climate predictions require that a comprehensive, focused, multi-platform observing system (satellites, ground-based and in situ observations) be established in an international context. This system must be accompanied by the development of climate services that should translate and disseminate scientific outcomes as actionable information for users and stakeholders.

  17. Observation of melt surface depressions during electron beam evaporation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohba, Hironori; Shibata, Takemasa

    2000-08-01

    Depths of depressed surface of liquid gadolinium, cerium and copper during electron beam evaporation were measured by triangulation method using a CCD camera. The depression depths estimated from the balance of the vapor pressure and the hydrostatic pressure at the evaporation surface agreed with the measured values. The periodic fluctuation of atomic beam was observed when the depression of 3∼4 mm in depth was formed at the evaporation spot. (author)

  18. Observation of a prewetting transition during surface melting of caprolactam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandavarkar, Sumant; Geertman, Rob M.; de Jeu, Wim H.

    1992-10-01

    The surface-induced melting of the closed-packed (100) face of the anisotropic molecular crystal caprolactam has been studied using x-ray reflectivity. A thin-to-thick film prewetting transition is observed at about 13 K below the bulk melting point. Only above this transition does the thickness of the quasiliquid layer increase continuously with temperature. We speculate that initially the surface melting proceeds via layering transitions.

  19. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Land Surface Air Temperature Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A station observation-based global land monthly mean surface air temperature dataset at 0.5 0.5 latitude-longitude resolution for the period from 1948 to the present...

  20. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Land Surface Air Temperature Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A station observation-based global land monthly mean surface air temperature dataset at 0.5 x 0.5 latitude-longitude resolution for the period from 1948 to the...

  1. The climate - Observing the past, conserving the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klotz, G.; Mazaud, A.; Saint-Jalm, F.

    2011-01-01

    Before we begin, we need to define the difference between meteorology and climatology. Meteorology is the study and forecasting of atmospheric phenomena over short periods of time, for specific geographic areas. The information dealt with is, therefore, temporary. Climatology investigates sets of meteorological conditions which are likely to affect different regions over long periods of time. The subject is built upon the foundations of various natural sciences: geography, geology, physics, chemistry... 'Climate involves changes in meteorological conditions considered over the entire planet'. The word 'climate' is used to refer to two distinct ideas. The more traditional meaning, which we learnt in our geography classes, is a property of a given location: the Earth is divided into climatic areas as a function of the meteorological conditions which dominate the various seasons in those regions. The second meaning of the word 'climate' refers to a global approach with respect to time: in this case, we are interested in changes in meteorological conditions considered over the entire planet and over long time periods (at least 30 years). It is this second meaning of the word that forms the subject of this leaflet, a leaflet which aims to explain how the global climate functions. (authors)

  2. Role of land surface processes and diffuse/direct radiation partitioning in simulating the European climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. L. Davin

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The influence of land processes and in particular of diffuse/direct radiation partitioning on surface fluxes and associated regional-scale climate feedbacks is investigated using ERA-40 driven simulations over Europe performed with the COSMO-CLM2 Regional Climate Model (RCM. Two alternative Land Surface Models (LSMs, a 2nd generation LSM (TERRA_ML and a more advanced 3rd generation LSM (Community Land Model version 3.5, and two versions of the atmospheric component are tested, as well as a revised coupling procedure allowing for variations in diffuse/direct light partitioning at the surface, and their accounting by the land surface component.

    Overall, the RCM performance for various variables (e.g., surface fluxes, temperature and precipitation is improved when using the more advanced 3rd generation LSM. These improvements are of the same order of magnitude as those arising from a new version of the atmospheric component, demonstrating the benefit of using a realistic representation of land surface processes for regional climate simulations. Taking into account the variability in diffuse/direct light partitioning at the surface further improves the model performance in terms of summer temperature variability at the monthly and daily time scales. Comparisons with observations show that the RCM realistically captures temporal variations in diffuse/direct light partitioning as well as the evapotranspiration sensitivity to these variations. Our results suggest that a modest but consistent fraction (up to 3 % of the overall variability in summer temperature can be explained by variations in the diffuse to direct ratio.

  3. An explanation for the different climate sensitivities of land and ocean surfaces based on the diurnal cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kleidon

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Observations and climate model simulations consistently show a higher climate sensitivity of land surfaces compared to ocean surfaces. Here we show that this difference in temperature sensitivity can be explained by the different means by which the diurnal variation in solar radiation is buffered. While ocean surfaces buffer the diurnal variations by heat storage changes below the surface, land surfaces buffer it mostly by heat storage changes above the surface in the lower atmosphere that are reflected in the diurnal growth of a convective boundary layer. Storage changes below the surface allow the ocean surface–atmosphere system to maintain turbulent fluxes over day and night, while the land surface–atmosphere system maintains turbulent fluxes only during the daytime hours, when the surface is heated by absorption of solar radiation. This shorter duration of turbulent fluxes on land results in a greater sensitivity of the land surface–atmosphere system to changes in the greenhouse forcing because nighttime temperatures are shaped by radiative exchange only, which are more sensitive to changes in greenhouse forcing. We use a simple, analytic energy balance model of the surface–atmosphere system in which turbulent fluxes are constrained by the maximum power limit to estimate the effects of these different means to buffer the diurnal cycle on the resulting temperature sensitivities. The model predicts that land surfaces have a 50 % greater climate sensitivity than ocean surfaces, and that the nighttime temperatures on land increase about twice as much as daytime temperatures because of the absence of turbulent fluxes at night. Both predictions compare very well with observations and CMIP5 climate model simulations. Hence, the greater climate sensitivity of land surfaces can be explained by its buffering of diurnal variations in solar radiation in the lower atmosphere.

  4. Surface Mass Balance Distributions: Downscaling of Coarse Climates to drive Ice Sheet Models realistically

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodehacke, Christian; Mottram, Ruth; Langen, Peter; Madsen, Marianne; Yang, Shuting; Boberg, Fredrik; Christensen, Jens

    2017-04-01

    The surface mass balance (SMB) is the most import boundary conditions for the state of glaciers and ice sheets. Hence its representation in numerical model simulations is of highest interest for glacier, ice cap and ice sheet modeling efforts. While descent SMB distributions of the current climate could be interfered with the help of various observation techniques and platforms, its construction for older past and future climates relies on input from spatially coarse resolved global climate models or reconstructions. These coarse SMB estimates with a footprint in the order of 100 km could hardly resolve the marginal ablations zones where the Greenland ice sheets, for instance, loses snow and ice. We present a downscaling method that is based on the physical calculation of the surface mass and energy balance. By the consequent application of universal and computationally cheap parameterizations we get an astonishing good representation of the SMB distribution including its marginal ablation zone. However the method has its limitations; for example wrong accumulation rates due to an insufficient precipitation field leaves its imprint on the SMB distribution. Also the still not satisfactory description of the bare ice albedo, in particular, in parts of Greenland is a challenge. We inspect our Greenland SMB fields' for various forcings and compare them with some widely used reference fields in the community to highlight the weakness and strength of our approach. We use the ERA-Interim reanalyzes period starting in 1979 directly as well as dynamically downscaled by our regional climate model HIRHAM (5 km resolution). Also SMB distributions obtained from the climate model EC-Earth with a resolution of T159 (approx. 125 km resolution in Greenland) are used either directly or downscaled with our regional climate model HIRHAM. Model-based End-of-the-century SMB estimates give an outlook of the future.

  5. Long-Term Variability of Surface Albedo and Its Correlation with Climatic Variables over Antarctica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minji Seo

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The cryosphere is an essential part of the earth system for understanding climate change. Components of the cryosphere, such as ice sheets and sea ice, are generally decreasing over time. However, previous studies have indicated differing trends between the Antarctic and the Arctic. The South Pole also shows internal differences in trends. These phenomena indicate the importance of continuous observation of the Polar Regions. Albedo is a main indicator for analyzing Antarctic climate change and is an important variable with regard to the radiation budget because it can provide positive feedback on polar warming and is related to net radiation and atmospheric heating in the mainly snow- and ice-covered Antarctic. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed long-term temporal and spatial variability of albedo and investigated the interrelationships between albedo and climatic variables over Antarctica. We used broadband surface albedo data from the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring and data for several climatic variables such as temperature and Antarctic oscillation index (AAO during the period of 1983 to 2009. Time series analysis and correlation analysis were performed through linear regression using albedo and climatic variables. The results of this research indicated that albedo shows two trends, west trend and an east trend, over Antarctica. Most of the western side of Antarctica showed a negative trend of albedo (about −0.0007 to −0.0015 year−1, but the other side showed a positive trend (about 0.0006 year−1. In addition, albedo and surface temperature had a negative correlation, but this relationship was weaker in west Antarctica than in east Antarctica. The correlation between albedo and AAO revealed different relationships in the two regions; west Antarctica had a negative correlation and east Antarctica showed a positive correlation. In addition, the correlation between albedo and AAO was weaker in the west. This

  6. Interactions of Vegetation and Climate: Remote Observations, Earth System Models, and the Amazon Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quetin, Gregory R.

    The natural composition of terrestrial ecosystems can be shaped by climate to take advantage of local environmental conditions. Ecosystem functioning, e.g. interaction between photosynthesis and temperature, can also acclimate to different climatological states. The combination of these two factors thus determines ecological-climate interactions. The ecosystem functioning also plays a key role in predicting the carbon cycle, hydrological cycle, terrestrial surface energy balance, and the feedbacks in the climate system. Predicting the response of the Earth's biosphere to global warming requires the ability to mechanistically represent the processes controlling ecosystem functioning through photosynthesis, respiration, and water use. The physical environment in a place shapes the vegetation there, but vegetation also has the potential to shape the environment, e.g. increased photosynthesis and transpiration moisten the atmosphere. These two-way ecoclimate interactions create the potential for feedbacks between vegetation at the physical environment that depend on the vegetation and the climate of a place, and can change throughout the year. In Chapter 1, we derive a global empirical map of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate using the response of satellite-observed greenness to interannual variations in temperature and precipitation. We infer mechanisms constraining ecosystem functioning by analyzing how the sensitivity of vegetation to climate varies across climate space. Our analysis yields empirical evidence for multiple physical and biological mediators of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate at large spatial scales. In hot and wet locations, vegetation is greener in warmer years despite temperatures likely exceeding thermally optimum conditions. However, sunlight generally increases during warmer years, suggesting that the increased stress from higher atmospheric water demand is offset by higher rates of photosynthesis. The sensitivity of vegetation

  7. Observational research study around tropical Western Pacific: PALAU (Pacific Area Long-term Atmospheric observation for Understanding climate change) project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirooka, Ryuichi

    2017-04-01

    The warm water pool region in the tropical Western Pacific is a key area for global climate systems, as strong atmospheric convective activity in this area is the driving engine of the atmosphere. However, there are many processes between meso-scale convective activities and the global-scale climate, and these are not fully understood yet. To understand the mechanism of clouds-precipitation processes and air-sea interactions over the warm pool in the tropics, there are in need of further investigation on the Western Pacific monsoon and the tropical-extratropical interactions. Toward these objectives, we have continued a long-term observational project named PALAU (Pacific Area Long-term Atmospheric observation for Understanding climate change) around the tropical Western Pacific near the Republic of Palau. The main target of this project is to describe multi-scale interactions of cloud systems to intra-seasonal oscillations affected by monsoon activities. To elucidate the structure of tropical cyclones, which occur over a monsoon trough near Palau, is also a major interest. Since November 2000, we have been continuously operating a surface weather observation site in Palau. We also have conducted several intensive field campaigns targeted for various phenomena. PALAU2013, one of the intensive campaign, was carried out to focus on the formation mechanism of tropical cyclones and their relation to intra-seasonal oscillations and monsoon activity over the tropical Western Pacific. During the campaign, R/V Mirai was placed near Palau and conducted atmospheric and oceanic observations using Doppler radar, radiosonde, CTD and so on. Daily profiling Argo-floats were deployed for analyzing air-sea interactions. To capture the monsoon activity with wide area, we constructed intensified sounding network from Philippines, Palau, and Yap to Guam. Three X-band radars were utilized to obtain the internal structure of cloud systems. Dual-polarization parameters also can be

  8. Remote sensing of ocean surface currents: a review of what is being observed and what is being assimilated

    OpenAIRE

    Isern-Fontanet, Jordi; Ballabrera-Poy, Joaquim; Turiel, Antonio; García-Ladona, Emilio

    2017-01-01

    Ocean currents play a key role in Earth's climate – they impact almost any process taking place in the ocean and are of major importance for navigation and human activities at sea. Nevertheless, their observation and forecasting are still difficult. First, no observing system is able to provide direct measurements of global ocean currents on synoptic scales. Consequently, it has been necessary to use sea surface height and sea surface temperature measurements and refer to dy...

  9. Land Surface Microwave Emissivity Dynamics: Observations, Analysis and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Yudong; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Harrison, Kenneth W.; Kumar, Sujay; Ringerud, Sarah

    2014-01-01

    Land surface microwave emissivity affects remote sensing of both the atmosphere and the land surface. The dynamical behavior of microwave emissivity over a very diverse sample of land surface types is studied. With seven years of satellite measurements from AMSR-E, we identified various dynamical regimes of the land surface emission. In addition, we used two radiative transfer models (RTMs), the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) and the Community Microwave Emission Modeling Platform (CMEM), to simulate land surface emissivity dynamics. With both CRTM and CMEM coupled to NASA's Land Information System, global-scale land surface microwave emissivities were simulated for five years, and evaluated against AMSR-E observations. It is found that both models have successes and failures over various types of land surfaces. Among them, the desert shows the most consistent underestimates (by approx. 70-80%), due to limitations of the physical models used, and requires a revision in both systems. Other snow-free surface types exhibit various degrees of success and it is expected that parameter tuning can improve their performances.

  10. Regional climates in the GISS general circulation model: Surface air temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewitson, Bruce

    1994-01-01

    One of the more viable research techniques into global climate change for the purpose of understanding the consequent environmental impacts is based on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However, GCMs are currently unable to reliably predict the regional climate change resulting from global warming, and it is at the regional scale that predictions are required for understanding human and environmental responses. Regional climates in the extratropics are in large part governed by the synoptic-scale circulation and the feasibility of using this interscale relationship is explored to provide a way of moving to grid cell and sub-grid cell scales in the model. The relationships between the daily circulation systems and surface air temperature for points across the continental United States are first developed in a quantitative form using a multivariate index based on principal components analysis (PCA) of the surface circulation. These relationships are then validated by predicting daily temperature using observed circulation and comparing the predicted values with the observed temperatures. The relationships predict surface temperature accurately over the major portion of the country in winter, and for half the country in summer. These relationships are then applied to the surface synoptic circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM control run, and a set of surface grid cell temperatures are generated. These temperatures, based on the larger-scale validated circulation, may now be used with greater confidence at the regional scale. The generated temperatures are compared to those of the model and show that the model has regional errors of up to 10 C in individual grid cells.

  11. Sensitivity of climate models: Comparison of simulated and observed patterns for past climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prell, W.L.; Webb, T. III.

    1992-08-01

    Predicting the potential climatic effects of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide requires the continuing development of climate models. Confidence in the predictions will be much enhanced once the models are thoroughly tested in terms of their ability to simulate climates that differ significantly from today's climate. As one index of the magnitude of past climate change, the global mean temperature increase during the past 18,000 years is similar to that predicted for carbon dioxide--doubling. Simulating the climatic changes of the past 18,000 years, as well as the warmer-than-present climate of 6000 years ago and the climate of the last interglacial, around 126,000 years ago, provides an excellent opportunity to test the models that are being used in global climate change research. During the past several years, we have used paleoclimatic data to test the accuracy of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate Model, Version 0, after changing its boundary conditions to those appropriate for past climates. We have assembled regional and near-global paleoclimatic data sets of pollen, lake level, and marine plankton data and calibrated many of the data in terms of climatic variables. We have also developed methods that permit direct quantitative comparisons between the data and model results. Our research has shown that comparing the model results with the data is an evolutionary process, because the models, the data, and the methods for comparison are continually being improved. During 1992, we have completed new modeling experiments, further analyzed previous model experiments, compiled new paleodata, made new comparisons between data and model results, and participated in workshops on paleoclimatic modeling

  12. Diagnosing observed characteristics of the wet season across Africa to identify deficiencies in climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunning, C.; Black, E.; Allan, R. P.

    2017-12-01

    The seasonality of rainfall over Africa plays a key role in determining socio-economic impacts for agricultural stakeholders, influences energy supply from hydropower, affects the length of the malaria transmission season and impacts surface water supplies. Hence, failure or delays of these rains can lead to significant socio-economic impacts. Diagnosing and interpreting interannual variability and long-term trends in seasonality, and analysing the physical driving mechanisms, requires a robust definition of African precipitation seasonality, applicable to both observational datasets and model simulations. Here we present a methodology for objectively determining the onset and cessation of multiple wet seasons across the whole of Africa. Compatibility with known physical drivers of African rainfall, consistency with indigenous methods, and generally strong agreement between satellite-based rainfall data sets confirm that the method is capturing the correct seasonal progression of African rainfall. Application of this method to observational datasets reveals that over East Africa cessation of the short rains is 5 days earlier in La Nina years, and the failure of the rains and subsequent humanitarian disaster is associated with shorter as well as weaker rainy seasons over this region. The method is used to examine the representation of the seasonality of African precipitation in CMIP5 model simulations. Overall, atmosphere-only and fully coupled CMIP5 historical simulations represent essential aspects of the seasonal cycle; patterns of seasonal progression of the rainy season are captured, for the most part mean model onset/ cessation dates agree with mean observational dates to within 18 days. However, unlike the atmosphere-only simulations, the coupled simulations do not capture the biannual regime over the southern West African coastline, linked to errors in Gulf of Guinea Sea Surface Temperature. Application to both observational and climate model datasets, and

  13. The response of surface ozone to climate change over the Eastern United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. N. Racherla

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the response of surface ozone (O3 to future climate change in the eastern United States by performing simulations corresponding to present (1990s and future (2050s climates using an integrated model of global climate, tropospheric gas-phase chemistry, and aerosols. A future climate has been imposed using ocean boundary conditions corresponding to the IPCC SRES A2 scenario for the 2050s decade. Present-day anthropogenic emissions and CO2/CH4 mixing ratios have been used in both simulations while climate-sensitive emissions were allowed to vary with the simulated climate. The severity and frequency of O3 episodes in the eastern U.S. increased due to future climate change, primarily as a result of increased O3 chemical production. The 95th percentile O3 mixing ratio increased by 5 ppbv and the largest frequency increase occured in the 80–90 ppbv range; the US EPA's current 8-h ozone primary standard is 80 ppbv. The increased O3 chemical production is due to increases in: 1 natural isoprene emissions; 2 hydroperoxy radical concentrations resulting from increased water vapor concentrations; and, 3 NOx concentrations resulting from reduced PAN. The most substantial and statistically significant (p<0.05 increases in episode frequency occurred over the southeast and midatlantic U.S., largely as a result of 20% higher annual-average natural isoprene emissions. These results suggest a lengthening of the O3 season over the eastern U.S. in a future climate to include late spring and early fall months. Increased chemical production and shorter average lifetime are two consistent features of the seasonal response of surface O3, with increased dry deposition loss rates contributing most to the reduced lifetime in all seasons except summer. Significant interannual variability is observed in the frequency of O3

  14. Developing and Validating a New Classroom Climate Observation Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leff, Stephen S.; Thomas, Duane E.; Shapiro, Edward S.; Paskewich, Brooke; Wilson, Kim; Necowitz-Hoffman, Beth; Jawad, Abbas F.

    2011-01-01

    The climate of school classrooms, shaped by a combination of teacher practices and peer processes, is an important determinant for children's psychosocial functioning and is a primary factor affecting bullying and victimization. Given that there are relatively few theoretically grounded and validated assessment tools designed to measure the social…

  15. "Intelligent Ensemble" Projections of Precipitation and Surface Radiation in Support of Agricultural Climate Change Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Patrick C.; Baker, Noel C.

    2015-01-01

    Earth's climate is changing and will continue to change into the foreseeable future. Expected changes in the climatological distribution of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation will significantly impact agriculture. Adaptation strategies are, therefore, required to reduce the agricultural impacts of climate change. Climate change projections of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation distributions are necessary input for adaption planning studies. These projections are conventionally constructed from an ensemble of climate model simulations (e.g., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5)) as an equal weighted average, one model one vote. Each climate model, however, represents the array of climate-relevant physical processes with varying degrees of fidelity influencing the projection of individual climate variables differently. Presented here is a new approach, termed the "Intelligent Ensemble, that constructs climate variable projections by weighting each model according to its ability to represent key physical processes, e.g., precipitation probability distribution. This approach provides added value over the equal weighted average method. Physical process metrics applied in the "Intelligent Ensemble" method are created using a combination of NASA and NOAA satellite and surface-based cloud, radiation, temperature, and precipitation data sets. The "Intelligent Ensemble" method is applied to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 anthropogenic climate forcing simulations within the CMIP5 archive to develop a set of climate change scenarios for precipitation, temperature, and surface solar radiation in each USDA Farm Resource Region for use in climate change adaptation studies.

  16. Land-Surface-Atmosphere Coupling in Observations and Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan K Betts

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The diurnal cycle and the daily mean at the land-surface result from the coupling of many physical processes. The framework of this review is largely conceptual; looking for relationships and information in the coupling of processes in models and observations. Starting from the surface energy balance, the role of the surface and cloud albedos in the shortwave and longwave fluxes is discussed. A long-wave radiative scaling of the diurnal temperature range and the night-time boundary layer is summarized. Several aspects of the local surface energy partition are presented: the role of soilwater availability and clouds; vector methods for understanding mixed layer evolution, and the coupling between surface and boundary layer that determines the lifting condensation level. Moving to larger scales, evaporation-precipitation feedback in models is discussed; and the coupling of column water vapor, clouds and precipitation to vertical motion and moisture convergence over the Amazon. The final topic is a comparison of the ratio of surface shortwave cloud forcing to the diabatic precipitation forcing of the atmosphere in ERA-40 with observations.

  17. Impact of Future Emissions and Climate Change on Surface Ozone over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, C. T.; Westervelt, D. M.; Fiore, A. M.; Rieder, H. E.; Kinney, P.; Wang, S.; Correa, G. J. P.

    2017-12-01

    China's immense ambient air pollution problem and world-leading greenhouse gas emissions place it at the forefront of global efforts to address these related environmental concerns. Here, we analyze the impact of ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) future emissions scenarios representative of current legislation (CLE) and maximum technically feasible emissions reductions (MFR) on surface ozone (O3) concentrations over China in the 2030s and 2050s, in the context of a changing climate. We use a suite of simulations performed with the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's AM3 global chemistry-climate model. To estimate the impact of climate change in isolation on Chinese air quality, we hold emissions of air pollutants including O3 precursors fixed at 2015 levels but allow climate (global sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover) to change according to decadal averages for the years 2026-2035 and 2046-2055 from a three-member ensemble of GFDL-CM3 simulations under the RCP8.5 high warming scenario. Evaluation of the present-day simulation (2015 CLE) with observations from 1497 chiefly urban air quality monitoring stations shows that simulated surface O3 is positively biased by 26 ppb on average over the domain of China. Previous studies, however, have shown that the modeled ozone response to changes in NOx emissions over the Eastern United States mirrors the magnitude and structure of observed changes in maximum daily average 8-hour (MDA8) O3 distributions. Therefore, we use the model's simulated changes for the 2030s and 2050s to project changes in policy-relevant MDA8 O3 concentrations. We find an overall increase in MDA8 O3 for CLE scenarios in which emissions of NOx precursors are projected to increase, and under MFR scenarios, an overall decrease, with the highest changes occurring in summertime for both 2030 and 2050 MFR. Under climate change alone, the model simulates a mean summertime decrease of 1.3 ppb

  18. Global observation-based diagnosis of soil moisture control on land surface flux partition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallego-Elvira, Belen; Taylor, Christopher M.; Harris, Phil P.; Ghent, Darren; Veal, Karen L.; Folwell, Sonja S.

    2016-04-01

    Soil moisture plays a central role in the partition of available energy at the land surface between sensible and latent heat flux to the atmosphere. As soils dry out, evapotranspiration becomes water-limited ("stressed"), and both land surface temperature (LST) and sensible heat flux rise as a result. This change in surface behaviour during dry spells directly affects critical processes in both the land and the atmosphere. Soil water deficits are often a precursor in heat waves, and they control where feedbacks on precipitation become significant. State-of-the-art global climate model (GCM) simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) disagree on where and how strongly the surface energy budget is limited by soil moisture. Evaluation of GCM simulations at global scale is still a major challenge owing to the scarcity and uncertainty of observational datasets of land surface fluxes and soil moisture at the appropriate scale. Earth observation offers the potential to test how well GCM land schemes simulate hydrological controls on surface fluxes. In particular, satellite observations of LST provide indirect information about the surface energy partition at 1km resolution globally. Here, we present a potentially powerful methodology to evaluate soil moisture stress on surface fluxes within GCMs. Our diagnostic, Relative Warming Rate (RWR), is a measure of how rapidly the land warms relative to the overlying atmosphere during dry spells lasting at least 10 days. Under clear skies, this is a proxy for the change in sensible heat flux as soil dries out. We derived RWR from MODIS Terra and Aqua LST observations, meteorological re-analyses and satellite rainfall datasets. Globally we found that on average, the land warmed up during dry spells for 97% of the observed surface between 60S and 60N. For 73% of the area, the land warmed faster than the atmosphere (positive RWR), indicating water stressed conditions and increases in sensible heat flux

  19. Human-Induced Climate Variations Linked to Urbanization: From Observations to Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

    2004-01-01

    The goal of this session is to bring together scientists from interdisciplinary backgrounds to discuss the data, scientific approaches and recent results focusing on the impact of urbanization on the climate. The discussion will highlight current observational and modeling capabilities being employed for investigating the urban environment and its linkage to the change in the Earth's climate system. The goal of the session is to identify our current stand and the future direction on the topic. Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of population of the world has moved to urban areas. By 1995, more than 70% of population of North America and Europe were living in cities. By 2025, the United Nations estimates that 60% of the worlds population will live in cities. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is urban, better understanding of how the atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components interact as a coupled system and the influence of human activities on this system is critical. Our understanding of urbanization effect is incomplete, partly because human activities induce new changes on climate in addition to the original natural variations, and partly because previously few data available for study urban effect globally. Urban construction changes surface roughness, albedo, heat capacity and vegetation coverage. Traffic and industry increase atmospheric aerosol. It is suggested that urbanization may modify rainfall processes through aerosol-cloud interactions or dynamic feedbacks. Because urbanization effect on climate is determined by many factors including land cover, the city's microscale features, population density, and human lifestyle patterns, it is necessary to study urban areas over globe.

  20. Surface mapping of magnetic hot stars. Theories versus observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kochukhov, O.

    2018-01-01

    This review summarises results of recent magnetic and chemical abundance surface mapping studies of early-type stars. We discuss main trends uncovered by observational investigations and consider reliability of spectropolarimetric inversion techniques used to infer these results. A critical assessment of theoretical attempts to interpret empirical magnetic and chemical maps in the framework of, respectively, the fossil field and atomic diffusion theories is also presented. This confrontation of theory and observations demonstrates that 3D MHD models of fossil field relaxation are successful in matching the observed range of surface magnetic field geometries. At the same time, even the most recent time-dependent atomic diffusion calculations fail to reproduce diverse horizontal abundance distributions found in real magnetic hot stars.

  1. Surface and Mid-tropospheric Climate Change in Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromwich, D. H.; Monaghan, A. J.; Colwell, S. R.

    2008-12-01

    Near-surface air temperatures and 500-hPa temperatures over Antarctica for 1960-2007 have been reconstructed over the entire continent using manned station observations and radiosonde records, respectively, from the READER database maintained by British Antarctic Survey. The 50-year trends found in our near-surface temperature reconstruction agree with recent work by others using a variety of spatial extrapolation techniques. It is found that the statistically significant Antarctic Peninsula near-surface warming on an annual basis has spread into West Antarctica reaching as far as east as the Pine Island Bay-Thwaites Glacier region. The warming is most marked in recent years with 2007 being the warmest year in the 1960- 2007 interval. In contrast to the western (eastern) Antarctic Peninsula warming which is maximized in winter (summer), the warming over West Antarctica is maximized in the spring (SON) and in that season statistically significant warming stretches across all of West Antarctica and into northern Victoria Land. Weak near- surface warming is found over East Antarctica and the continent as a whole on an annual basis although continental warming in the spring is statistically significant and driven largely by the strong and widespread changes in West Antarctica. The 1960-2007 500-hPa temperature reconstruction is compared to the changes described by Turner et al. (2005), who found strong winter warming in radiosonde records over Antarctica for 1971-2003 but noted greater uncertainty over West Antarctica where there are few observational constraints.

  2. Estimates of surface methane emissions over Europe using observed surface concentrations and the FLEXPART trajectory model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, C. J.; Kiemle, C.; Kawa, S. R.; Aalto, T.; Necki, J.; Steinbacher, M.; Arduini, J.; Apadula, F.; Berkhout, H.; Hatakka, J.; O'Doherty, S.

    2013-12-01

    We use surface methane observations from nine European ground stations, and the FLEXPART Lagrangian transport model to obtain surface methane emissions for 2010. Our inversion shows the strongest emissions from the Netherlands and the coal mines in Upper Silesia Poland. This is qualitatively consistent with the EDGAR surface flux inventory. We also report significant surface fluxes from wetlands in southern Finland during July and August and reduced wetland fluxes later in the year. Our simulated methane surface concentration captures at least half of the daily variability in the observations, suggesting that the transport model is correctly simulating the regional transport pathways over Europe. We also use our trajectory model to determine whether future space-based remote sensing instruments (MERLIN) will be able to detect both natural and anthropogenic changes in the surface flux strengths.

  3. Observational estimation of radiative feedback to surface air temperature over Northern High Latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Jiwon; Choi, Yong-Sang; Kim, WonMoo; Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.

    2018-01-01

    The high-latitude climate system contains complicated, but largely veiled physical feedback processes. Climate predictions remain uncertain, especially for the Northern High Latitudes (NHL; north of 60°N), and observational constraint on climate modeling is vital. This study estimates local radiative feedbacks for NHL based on the CERES/Terra satellite observations during March 2000-November 2014. The local shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative feedback parameters are calculated from linear regression of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere on surface air temperatures. These parameters are estimated by the de-seasonalization and 12-month moving average of the radiative fluxes over NHL. The estimated magnitudes of the SW and the LW radiative feedbacks in NHL are 1.88 ± 0.73 and 2.38 ± 0.59 W m-2 K-1, respectively. The parameters are further decomposed into individual feedback components associated with surface albedo, water vapor, lapse rate, and clouds, as a product of the change in climate variables from ERA-Interim reanalysis estimates and their pre-calculated radiative kernels. The results reveal the significant role of clouds in reducing the surface albedo feedback (1.13 ± 0.44 W m-2 K-1 in the cloud-free condition, and 0.49 ± 0.30 W m-2 K-1 in the all-sky condition), while the lapse rate feedback is predominant in LW radiation (1.33 ± 0.18 W m-2 K-1). However, a large portion of the local SW and LW radiative feedbacks were not simply explained by the sum of these individual feedbacks.

  4. Growing season boundary layer climate and surface exchanges in a subarctic lichen woodland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzjarrald, David R.; Moore, Kathleen E.

    1994-01-01

    Between June and August 1990, observations were made at two surface micrometeorological towers near Schefferville Quebec (54 deg 52 min N, 66 deg 40.5 min W), one in a fen and one in the subarctic lichen woodland, and at four surface climatological stations. Data from these surface stations were supplemented by regular radiosonde launches. Supporting measurements of radiative components and soil temperatures allowed heat and moisture balances to be obtained at two sites. The overall surface meteorological experiment design and results of micrometeorological observations made on a 30-m tower in the lichen woodland are presented here. Seasonal variation in the heat and water vapor transport characteristics illustrate the marked effect of the late summer climatological shift in air mass type. During the first half of the summer, average valley sidewalls only 100 m high are sufficient to channel winds along the valley in the entire convective boundary layer. Channeling effects at the surface, known for some time at the long-term climate station in Schefferville, are observed both at ridge top and in the valley, possibly the response of the flow to the NW-SE orientation of valleys in the region. Diurnal surface temperature amplitude at ridge top (approximately equal to 10 C) was found to be half that observed in the valley. Relatively large differences in precipitation among these stations and the climatological station at Schefferville airport were observed and attributed to the local topography. Eddy correlation observations of the heat, moisture and momentum transports were obtained from a 30-m tower above a sparse (approximately equal to 616 stems/ha) black spruce lichen woodland. Properties of the turbulent surface boundary layer agree well with previous wind tunnel studies over idealized rough surfaces. Daytime Bowen ratios of 2.5-3 are larger than those reported in previous studies. Surface layer flux data quality was assessed by looking at the surface layer heat

  5. Effects of climate change on groundwater: observed and forecasted trends on Italian systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doveri, Marco; Menichini, Matia; Provenzale, Antonello; Scozzari, Andrea

    2017-04-01

    Groundwater represents the main source of water supply at global level. In Italy, as well as in most European countries, water needs are mainly covered by groundwater exploitation. The reliance on this resource is continuously growing, given the key role that groundwater plays for mitigating the climate change/variability and for addressing the significant increase in the global water demand. Despite this, and unlike surface waters, groundwater bodies have not been widely studied, and there is a general paucity of quantitative information, especially in relation to climate change. Although groundwater systems are more resilient to climate change than surface waters, they are affected both directly and indirectly. The estimation of the entity of these effects is mandatory for a reliable management of this crucial resource. The analysis of hydro-meteorological data over a few decades highlights that also the Italian territory is experiencing a change of the climate regime. Besides the increase of mean annual temperature, observed in particular since the early 1980s, longer and more frequent drought periods have been registered, as well as an increase of extreme events characterized by heavy rainfall. It is also noticeable a decrease in total rainfall, that is much more evident in the period from January to June. In addition to the reduced yearly inputs from precipitation, such trends determine also a lower snow accumulation and earlier snow melt in mountain areas, a general increase of evapotranspiration rates and an increased runoff fraction of the effective rainfall amount. As flood hydrographs of several major Italian rivers (e.g., Po, Brenta and Arno rivers) confirm, evident effects concern surface water resources. The main observed phenomena consist in the decline of mean annual discharge, the increase of extreme events with high discharge concentrated in short periods, and longer and earlier periods of low base flow. Impacts on groundwater recharge are not well

  6. Land surface phenology of Northeast China during 2000-2015: temporal changes and relationships with climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yue; Li, Lin; Wang, Hongbin; Zhang, Yao; Wang, Naijia; Chen, Junpeng

    2017-10-01

    As an important crop growing area, Northeast China (NEC) plays a vital role in China's food security, which has been severely affected by climate change in recent years. Vegetation phenology in this region is sensitive to climate change, and currently, the relationship between the phenology of NEC and climate change remains unclear. In this study, we used a satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to obtain the temporal patterns of the land surface phenology in NEC from 2000 to 2015 and validated the results using ground phenology observations. We then explored the relationships among land surface phenology, temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours for relevant periods. Our results showed that the NEC experienced great phenological changes in terms of spatial heterogeneity during 2000-2015. The spatial patterns of land surface phenology mainly changed with altitude and land cover type. In most regions of NEC, the start date of land surface phenology had advanced by approximately 1.0 days year -1 , and the length of land surface phenology had been prolonged by approximately 1.0 days year -1 except for the needle-leaf and cropland areas, due to the warm conditions. We found that a distinct inter-annual variation in land surface phenology related to climate variables, even if some areas presented non-significant trends. Land surface phenology was coupled with climate variables and distinct responses at different combinations of temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, altitude, and anthropogenic influence. These findings suggest that remote sensing and our phenology extracting methods hold great potential for helping to understand how land surface phenology is sensitive to global climate change.

  7. Climate and health: observation and modeling of malaria in the Ferlo (Senegal).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diouf, Ibrahima; Deme, Abdoulaye; Ndione, Jacques-André; Gaye, Amadou Thierno; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén; Cissé, Moustapha

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this work, undertaken in the framework of QWeCI (Quantifying Weather and Climate Impacts on health in the developing countries) project, is to study how climate variability could influence malaria seasonal incidence. It will also assess the evolution of vector-borne diseases such as malaria by simulation analysis of climate models according to various climate scenarios for the next years. Climate variability seems to be determinant for the risk of malaria development (Freeman and Bradley, 1996 [1], Lindsay and Birley, 1996 [2], Kuhn et al., 2005 [3]). Climate can impact on the epidemiology of malaria by several mechanisms, directly, via the development rates and survival of both pathogens and vectors, and indirectly, through changes in vegetation and land surface characteristics such as the variability of breeding sites like ponds. Copyright © 2013 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

  8. Evaluation of Oceanic Surface Observation for Reproducing the Upper Ocean Structure in ECHAM5/MPI-OM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Hao; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

    2017-12-01

    Better constraints of initial conditions from data assimilation are necessary for climate simulations and predictions, and they are particularly important for the ocean due to its long climate memory; as such, ocean data assimilation (ODA) is regarded as an effective tool for seasonal to decadal predictions. In this work, an ODA system is established for a coupled climate model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM), which can assimilate all available oceanic observations using an ensemble optimal interpolation approach. To validate and isolate the performance of different surface observations in reproducing air-sea climate variations in the model, a set of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) was performed over 150 model years. Generally, assimilating sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and sea surface height (SSH) can reasonably reproduce the climate variability and vertical structure of the upper ocean, and assimilating SSH achieves the best results compared to the true states. For the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), assimilating different surface observations captures true aspects of ENSO well, but assimilating SSH can further enhance the accuracy of ENSO-related feedback processes in the coupled model, leading to a more reasonable ENSO evolution and air-sea interaction over the tropical Pacific. For ocean heat content, there are still limitations in reproducing the long time-scale variability in the North Atlantic, even if SSH has been taken into consideration. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of assimilating surface observations in capturing the interannual signal and, to some extent, the decadal signal but still highlight the necessity of assimilating profile data to reproduce specific decadal variability.

  9. A virtual climate library of surface temperature over North America for 1979-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kravtsov, Sergey; Roebber, Paul; Brazauskas, Vytaras

    2017-10-01

    The most comprehensive continuous-coverage modern climatic data sets, known as reanalyses, come from combining state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with diverse available observations. These reanalysis products estimate the path of climate evolution that actually happened, and their use in a probabilistic context—for example, to document trends in extreme events in response to climate change—is, therefore, limited. Free runs of NWP models without data assimilation can in principle be used for the latter purpose, but such simulations are computationally expensive and are prone to systematic biases. Here we produce a high-resolution, 100-member ensemble simulation of surface atmospheric temperature over North America for the 1979-2015 period using a comprehensive spatially extended non-stationary statistical model derived from the data based on the North American Regional Reanalysis. The surrogate climate realizations generated by this model are independent from, yet nearly statistically congruent with reality. This data set provides unique opportunities for the analysis of weather-related risk, with applications in agriculture, energy development, and protection of human life.

  10. Evaluating climatic and non-climatic stresses for declining surface water quality in Bagmati River of Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panthi, Jeeban; Li, Fengting; Wang, Hongtao; Aryal, Suman; Dahal, Piyush; Ghimire, Sheila; Kabenge, Martin

    2017-06-01

    Both climatic and non-climatic factors affect surface water quality. Similar to its effect across various sectors and areas, climate change has potential to affect surface water quality directly and indirectly. On the one hand, the rise in temperature enhances the microbial activity and decomposition of organic matter in the river system and changes in rainfall alter discharge and water flow in the river ultimately affecting pollution dilution level. On the other hand, the disposal of organic waste and channelizing municipal sewage into the rivers seriously worsen water quality. This study attempts to relate hydro-climatology, water quality, and impact of climatic and non-climatic stresses in affecting river water quality in the upper Bagmati basin in Central Nepal. The results showed that the key water quality indicators such as dissolved oxygen and chemical oxygen demand are getting worse in recent years. No significant relationships were found between the key water quality indicators and changes in key climatic variables. However, the water quality indicators correlated with the increase in urban population and per capita waste production in the city. The findings of this study indicate that dealing with non-climatic stressors such as reducing direct disposal of sewerage and other wastes in the river rather than emphasizing on working with the effects from climate change would largely help to improve water quality in the river flowing from highly populated urban areas.

  11. Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, Gerard D; Haigh, Ivan D; Hirschi, Joël J-M; Grist, Jeremy P; Smeed, David A

    2015-05-28

    Decadal variability is a notable feature of the Atlantic Ocean and the climate of the regions it influences. Prominently, this is manifested in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in sea surface temperatures. Positive (negative) phases of the AMO coincide with warmer (colder) North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The AMO is linked with decadal climate fluctuations, such as Indian and Sahel rainfall, European summer precipitation, Atlantic hurricanes and variations in global temperatures. It is widely believed that ocean circulation drives the phase changes of the AMO by controlling ocean heat content. However, there are no direct observations of ocean circulation of sufficient length to support this, leading to questions about whether the AMO is controlled from another source. Here we provide observational evidence of the widely hypothesized link between ocean circulation and the AMO. We take a new approach, using sea level along the east coast of the United States to estimate ocean circulation on decadal timescales. We show that ocean circulation responds to the first mode of Atlantic atmospheric forcing, the North Atlantic Oscillation, through circulation changes between the subtropical and subpolar gyres--the intergyre region. These circulation changes affect the decadal evolution of North Atlantic heat content and, consequently, the phases of the AMO. The Atlantic overturning circulation is declining and the AMO is moving to a negative phase. This may offer a brief respite from the persistent rise of global temperatures, but in the coupled system we describe, there are compensating effects. In this case, the negative AMO is associated with a continued acceleration of sea-level rise along the northeast coast of the United States.

  12. Land surface water cycles observed with satellite sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nghiem, Son V.; Njoku, E. G.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Kim, Y.

    2005-01-01

    Acceleration of the global water cycle may lead to increased global precipitation, faster evaporation and a consequent exacerbation of hydrologic extreme. In the U.S. national assessment of the potential consequences of climate variability and change, two GCMs (CGCM1 and HadCM2) show a large increase in precipitation in the future over the southwestern U.S. particularly during winter (Felzer and Heard, 1999). Increased precipitation potentially has important impacts on agricultural and water use in the southeast U.S. (Hatch et al., 1999) and in the central Great Plains (Nielsen, 1997). A hurricane model predicts a 40% precipitation increase for severe hurricanes affecting southeastern Florida, which provokes substantially greater flooding that could negate most of the benefits of present water-management practices in this basin (Gutowski et al., 1994). Thus, it is important to observe the hydroclimate on a continuous longterm basis to address the question of increased precipitation in the enhanced water cycle.

  13. Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan; Hanel, Martin

    2018-04-01

    The study compares characteristics of observed sub-daily precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic with those simulated by Hadley Centre Regional Model version 3 (HadRM3) and Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model version 4 (RCA4) regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalyses and examines diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation and their dependence on intensity and surface temperature. The observed warm-season (May-September) maxima of short-duration (1, 2 and 3 h) amounts show one diurnal peak in the afternoon, which is simulated reasonably well by RCA4, although the peak occurs too early in the model. HadRM3 provides an unrealistic diurnal cycle with a nighttime peak and an afternoon minimum coinciding with the observed maximum for all three ensemble members, which suggests that convection is not captured realistically. Distorted relationships of the diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation to daily maximum temperature in HadRM3 further evidence that underlying physical mechanisms are misrepresented in this RCM. Goodness-of-fit tests indicate that generalised extreme value distribution is an applicable model for both observed and RCM-simulated precipitation maxima. However, the RCMs are not able to capture the range of the shape parameter estimates of distributions of short-duration precipitation maxima realistically, leading to either too many (nearly all for HadRM3) or too few (RCA4) grid boxes in which the shape parameter corresponds to a heavy tail. This means that the distributions of maxima of sub-daily amounts are distorted in the RCM-simulated data and do not match reality well. Therefore, projected changes of sub-daily precipitation extremes in climate change scenarios based on RCMs not resolving convection need to be interpreted with caution.

  14. Land surface skin temperature climatology: benefitting from the strengths of satellite observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin Menglin; Dickinson, Robert E

    2010-01-01

    Surface skin temperature observations (T skin ), as obtained by satellite remote sensing, provide useful climatological information of high spatial resolution and global coverage that enhances the traditional ground observations of surface air temperature (T air ) and so, reveal new information about land surface characteristics. This letter analyzes nine years of moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) skin temperature observations to present monthly skin temperature diurnal, seasonal, and inter-annual variations at a 0.05 deg. latitude/longitude grid over the global land surface and combines these measurements with other MODIS-based variables in an effort to understand the physical mechanisms responsible for T skin variations. In particular, skin temperature variations are found to be closely related to vegetation cover, clouds, and water vapor, but to differ from 2 m surface T air in terms of both physical meaning and magnitude. Therefore, the two temperatures (T skin and T air ) are complementary in their contribution of valuable information to the study of climate change.

  15. Climate studies from satellite observations - Special problems in the verification of earth radiation balance, cloud climatology, and related climate experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vonder Haar, T. H.

    1982-01-01

    A body of techniques that have been developed and planned for use during the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), and related climate experiments of the 1980's are reviewed. Validation and verification methods must apply for systems of satellites. They include: (1) use of a normalization or intercalibration satellite, (2) special intensive observation areas located over ground-truth sites, and (3) monitoring of sun and earth by several satellites and/or several instruments at the same time. Since each climate application area has a hierarchy of user communities, validation techniques vary from very detailed methods to those that simply assure high relative accuracy in detecting space and time variations for climate studies. It is shown that climate experiments generally require more emphasis on long-term stability and internal consistency of satellite data sets than high absolute accuracy.

  16. Greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change: A critical appraisal of simulations and observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schlesinger, M.E.

    1990-01-01

    This book is the culmination of a Workshop on Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climatic Change: A Critical Appraisal of Simulations and Observations which was held at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, during 8--12 May 1989. The objectives of the Workshop were to: (1) present and evaluate the current status of climate model simulations of greenhouse-gas-induced changes of both the equilibrium and nonequilibrium (transient) climates; (2) present and assess the current status of the observations of global and regional climates from the beginning of the industrial revolution to the present, circa 1850 to 1989; (3) present reconstructions of climatic change during the last millennium to determine the ''natural variability'' of climate on the intra-century time scale; (4) critically evaluate whether or not the climate has changes from circa 1850 to 1989; and (5) compare the observations with the model simulations to ascertain whether a greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change has occurred and, if not, to estimate when in the future such a climatic change will likely become detectable against the background of the ''natural variability.''

  17. Moored surface buoy observations of the diurnal warm layer

    KAUST Repository

    Prytherch, J.

    2013-09-01

    An extensive data set is used to examine the dynamics of diurnal warming in the upper ocean. The data set comprises more than 4700 days of measurements at five sites in the tropics and subtropics, obtained from surface moorings equipped to make comprehensive meteorological, incoming solar and infrared radiation, and high-resolution subsurface temperature (and, in some cases, velocity) measurements. The observations, which include surface warmings of up to 3.4°C, are compared with a selection of existing models of the diurnal warm layer (DWL). A simple one-layer physical model is shown to give a reasonable estimate of both the magnitude of diurnal surface warming (model-observation correlation 0.88) and the structure and temporal evolution of the DWL. Novel observations of velocity shear obtained during 346 days at one site, incorporating high-resolution (1 m) upper ocean (5-15 m) acoustic Doppler current profile measurements, are also shown to be in reasonable agreement with estimates from the physical model (daily maximum shear model-observation correlation 0.77). Physics-based improvements to the one-layer model (incorporation of rotation and freshwater terms) are discussed, though they do not provide significant improvements against the observations reported here. The simplicity and limitations of the physical model are used to discuss DWL dynamics. The physical model is shown to give better model performance under the range of forcing conditions experienced across the five sites than the more empirical models. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  18. Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahmstorf, Stefan; Foster, Grant; Cazenave, Anny

    2012-01-01

    We analyse global temperature and sea-level data for the past few decades and compare them to projections published in the third and fourth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results show that global temperature continues to increase in good agreement with the best estimates of the IPCC, especially if we account for the effects of short-term variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, volcanic activity and solar variability. The rate of sea-level rise of the past few decades, on the other hand, is greater than projected by the IPCC models. This suggests that IPCC sea-level projections for the future may also be biased low. (letter)

  19. Sensitivity of surface meteorological analyses to observation networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyndall, Daniel Paul

    A computationally efficient variational analysis system for two-dimensional meteorological fields is developed and described. This analysis approach is most efficient when the number of analysis grid points is much larger than the number of available observations, such as for large domain mesoscale analyses. The analysis system is developed using MATLAB software and can take advantage of multiple processors or processor cores. A version of the analysis system has been exported as a platform independent application (i.e., can be run on Windows, Linux, or Macintosh OS X desktop computers without a MATLAB license) with input/output operations handled by commonly available internet software combined with data archives at the University of Utah. The impact of observation networks on the meteorological analyses is assessed by utilizing a percentile ranking of individual observation sensitivity and impact, which is computed by using the adjoint of the variational surface assimilation system. This methodology is demonstrated using a case study of the analysis from 1400 UTC 27 October 2010 over the entire contiguous United States domain. The sensitivity of this approach to the dependence of the background error covariance on observation density is examined. Observation sensitivity and impact provide insight on the influence of observations from heterogeneous observing networks as well as serve as objective metrics for quality control procedures that may help to identify stations with significant siting, reporting, or representativeness issues.

  20. Quality assessment and improvement of the EUMETSAT Meteosat Surface Albedo Climate Data Record

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Lattanzio

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Surface albedo has been identified as an important parameter for understanding and quantifying the Earth's radiation budget. EUMETSAT generated the Meteosat Surface Albedo (MSA Climate Data Record (CDR currently comprising up to 24 years (1982–2006 of continuous surface albedo coverage for large areas of the Earth. This CDR has been created within the Sustained, Coordinated Processing of Environmental Satellite Data for Climate Monitoring (SCOPE-CM framework. The long-term consistency of the MSA CDR is high and meets the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS stability requirements for desert reference sites. The limitation in quality due to non-removed clouds by the embedded cloud screening procedure is the most relevant weakness in the retrieval process. A twofold strategy is applied to efficiently improve the cloud detection and removal. The first step consists of the application of a robust and reliable cloud mask, taking advantage of the information contained in the measurements of the infrared and visible bands. Due to the limited information available from old radiometers, some clouds can still remain undetected. A second step relies on a post-processing analysis of the albedo seasonal variation together with the usage of a background albedo map in order to detect and screen out such outliers. The usage of a reliable cloud mask has a double effect. It enhances the number of high-quality retrievals for tropical forest areas sensed under low view angles and removes the most frequently unrealistic retrievals on similar surfaces sensed under high view angles. As expected, the usage of a cloud mask has a negligible impact on desert areas where clear conditions dominate. The exploitation of the albedo seasonal variation for cloud removal has good potentialities but it needs to be carefully addressed. Nevertheless it is shown that the inclusion of cloud masking and removal strategy is a key point for the generation of the next MSA CDR release.

  1. Pronounced differences between observed and CMIP5-simulated multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kravtsov, Sergey

    2017-06-01

    Identification and dynamical attribution of multidecadal climate undulations to either variations in external forcings or to internal sources is one of the most important topics of modern climate science, especially in conjunction with the issue of human-induced global warming. Here we utilize ensembles of twentieth century climate simulations to isolate the forced signal and residual internal variability in a network of observed and modeled climate indices. The observed internal variability so estimated exhibits a pronounced multidecadal mode with a distinctive spatiotemporal signature, which is altogether absent in model simulations. This single mode explains a major fraction of model-data differences over the entire climate index network considered; it may reflect either biases in the models' forced response or models' lack of requisite internal dynamics, or a combination of both.Plain Language SummaryGlobal and regional warming trends over the course of the twentieth century have been nonuniform, with decadal and longer periods of faster or slower warming, or even cooling. Here we show that state-of-the-art global models used to predict climate fail to adequately reproduce such multidecadal climate variations. In particular, the models underestimate the magnitude of the observed variability and misrepresent its spatial pattern. Therefore, our ability to interpret the observed climate change using these models is limited.

  2. Climate Response of Observationally-Constrained Aerosol Radiative Effect in CAM4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amiri-Farahani, A.; Hassan, T.; Allen, R.

    2017-12-01

    In the 5th IPCC report, the direct anthropogenic radiative forcing (RF) from aerosol radiation interactions is estimated to be -0.35±0.5 Wm-2 , and these estimates depend heavily on aerosol simulations. To circumvent some of the uncertainties associated with model-based approaches, studies have constrained aerosol radiative properties with observations. The recent study of Chung et al. (2016) integrate a suite of satellite and ground-based observations to constrain total aerosol optical depth, its fine-mode fraction, and the vertical distribution of aerosols and clouds. They infer a global direct anthropogenic RF less negative than -0.35 Wm-2. Here, we evaluate the climate response to the Chung et al. (2016) fine model aerosol radiative effect using CAM4. Equilibrium simulations are conducted with both prescribed sea surface temperatures and a slab ocean model, with monthly observationally-constrained aerosol forcings incorporated into the CAM4 radiation module. We investigate the global semi-direct effect and the differential responses of low clouds over the sea relative to land. Mechanisms for this contrast are explored, including differential changes in stability and relative humidity over land versus sea. In addition, we investigate the effect of observationally-constrained aerosols on global and regional precipitation, tropical belt width, and the Arctic oscillation.

  3. The French-German Climate Monitoring Initiative on global observations of atmospheric CH4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, Gerhard; Flamant, Pierre; Amediek, Axel; Ciais, Philippe; Fabien, Gibert; Fix, Andreas; Kiemle, Christoph; Quatrevalet, Mathieu; Wirth, Martin

    2010-05-01

    We report on a new French-German Climate Monitoring Initiative targeting on global measurements of atmospheric methane (CH4). Among the greenhouse gases banned by the Kyoto protocol, CH4 contributes most to global warming after CO2. Questions arise whether global warming in Arctic regions might foster the melting of permafrost soils which contain significant amounts of carbon in organic form which under anaerobic conditions might be converted to CH4 and partially released to the atmosphere. Also the development of natural wetlands which are the biggest methane source, play an important role in climate prediction. Up to now, there is very little knowledge about CH4 sources and sinks in connection with changes in the agro-industrial era of predominant human influence or the very large deposits of CH4 as gas hydrates on ocean shelves that are vulnerable to ocean warming. The objective of this initiative is to improve our knowledge on regional to synoptic scale methane sources, globally. This will be obtained by the measurement of the column-weighted dry-air mixing ratio of CH4, commonly referred to XCH4 which can be used as input for flux inversion models. As a novel feature, the observational instrument will have its own light source emitting pulsed narrow-line laser radiation, not relying on sunlight. The XCH4 values will be provided by a lidar technique with no bias due to particles scattering in the light path, which can have strong regional variability. Using a range-gated receiver for detection of the signals scattered from the Earth surface, the lidar can distinguish surface from cloud or aerosol backscatter, permitting high-precision retrievals of XCH4 in the presence of thin cirrus or aerosol layers. The proposed measurement approach is also capable of providing measurements in partially cloudy conditions. The emitted laser pulses can reach the surface when gaps between clouds occur due to the near-nadir view and the small lidar footprint. The instrument will

  4. Optical Bench Breadboard Of An Imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (iFTS) For Climate Observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, G.; McElroy, C. T.; Vaziri, Z.; Barton, D.; Blair, G.; Grandmont, F. J.

    2017-12-01

    The fifth assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that the warming of zonal mean surface temperature at higher latitudes exceeds the global average temperature change. This poses a great problem as the warming leads to the thawing of the permafrost in the Arctic region that acts as an envelope to trap greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop scientific instruments that can be flown in space over the Arctic to provide atmospheric information to quantify the evolution and transport of these gases. The Laboratory for Atmospheric Remote Sounding from Space (LARSS) at York University is developing an imaging Fourier transform spectrometer (IFTS) for climate observations by atmospheric sounding. The spectrometer has two individual channels, one centred at 1650 nm to measure the atmospheric column of carbon dioxide and methane, and another centred at 762 nm to measure the temperature-pressure profile by making measurements of the O2A band. A Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) modulator has been purchased from ABB Inc. of Quebec City. Interferometers are widely used in many scientific laboratories to measure concentrations of different constituents in a given sample. The performance of these instruments is highly dependent on environmental effects and various properties of the input beam such as coherence, polarity, etc. Thus, the use of such instruments to measure atmospheric concentration is complicated and challenging. The immediate goal of this project is to develop an IFTS system which can measure backscattered radiation in a laboratory environment and develop design elements that will make it operable in the space environment. Progress on the project and information concerning some of the issues listed above will be discussed. The developments which flow from this research project will support efforts by Environment and Climate Change Canada, the Canadian Space

  5. Asian Dust Weather Categorization with Satellite and Surface Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Tang-Huang; Hsu, N. Christina; Tsay, Si-Chee; Huang, Shih-Jen

    2011-01-01

    This study categorizes various dust weather types by means of satellite remote sensing over central Asia. Airborne dust particles can be identified by satellite remote sensing because of the different optical properties exhibited by coarse and fine particles (i.e. varying particle sizes). If a correlation can be established between the retrieved aerosol optical properties and surface visibility, the intensity of dust weather can be more effectively and consistently discerned using satellite rather than surface observations. In this article, datasets consisting of collocated products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Aqua and surface measurements are analysed. The results indicate an exponential relationship between the surface visibility and the satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth, which is subsequently used to categorize the dust weather. The satellite-derived spatial frequency distributions in the dust weather types are consistent with China s weather station reports during 2003, indicating that dust weather classification using satellite data is highly feasible. Although the period during the springtime from 2004 to 2007 may be not sufficient for statistical significance, our results reveal an increasing tendency in both intensity and frequency of dust weather over central Asia during this time period.

  6. The impact of climatic and non-climatic factors on land surface temperature in southwestern Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roşca, Cristina Florina; Harpa, Gabriela Victoria; Croitoru, Adina-Eliza; Herbel, Ioana; Imbroane, Alexandru Mircea; Burada, Doina Cristina

    2017-11-01

    Land surface temperature is one of the most important parameters related to global warming. It depends mainly on soil type, discontinuous vegetation cover, or lack of precipitation. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between high LST, synoptic conditions and air masses trajectories, vegetation cover, and soil type in one of the driest region in Romania. In order to calculate the land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index, five satellite images of LANDSAT missions 5 and 7, covering a period of 26 years (1986-2011), were selected, all of them collected in the month of June. The areas with low vegetation density were derived from normalized difference vegetation index, while soil types have been extracted from Corine Land Cover database. HYSPLIT application was employed to identify the air masses origin based on their backward trajectories for each of the five study cases. Pearson, logarithmic, and quadratic correlations were used to detect the relationships between land surface temperature and observed ground temperatures, as well as between land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index. The most important findings are: strong correlation between land surface temperature derived from satellite images and maximum ground temperature recorded in a weather station located in the area, as well as between areas with land surface temperature equal to or higher than 40.0 °C and those with lack of vegetation; the sandy soils are the most prone to high land surface temperature and lack of vegetation, followed by the chernozems and brown soils; extremely severe drought events may occur in the region.

  7. Continental-scale water fluxes from continuous GPS observations of Earth surface loading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borsa, A. A.; Agnew, D. C.; Cayan, D. R.

    2015-12-01

    After more than a decade of observing annual oscillations of Earth's surface from seasonal snow and water loading, continuous GPS is now being used to model time-varying terrestrial water fluxes on the local and regional scale. Although the largest signal is typically due to the seasonal hydrological cycle, GPS can also measure subtle surface deformation caused by sustained wet and dry periods, and to estimate the spatial distribution of the underlying terrestrial water storage changes. The next frontier is expanding this analysis to the continental scale and paving the way for incorporating GPS models into the National Climate Assessment and into the observational infrastructure for national water resource management. This will require reconciling GPS observations with predictions from hydrological models and with remote sensing observations from a suite of satellite instruments (e.g. GRACE, SMAP, SWOT). The elastic Earth response which transforms surface loads into vertical and horizontal displacements is also responsible for the contamination of loading observations by tectonic and anthropogenic transients, and we discuss these and other challenges to this new application of GPS.

  8. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Pan Evaporation Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observational reports of daily pan evaporation (1200 UTC to 1200 UTC) are made by members of the NWS Cooperative Network (COOP) or supplemental networks of NOAA's...

  9. Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate change in the Tibetan Plateau, 1960-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Xuewei; Luo, Siqiong; Lyu, Shihua

    2018-01-01

    Soil temperature, an important indicator of climate change, has rarely explored due to scarce observations, especially in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) area. In this study, changes observed in five meteorological variables obtained from the TP between 1960 and 2014 were investigated using two non-parametric methods, the modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator method. Analysis of annual series from 1960 to 2014 has shown that surface (0 cm), shallow (5-20 cm), deep (40-320 cm) soil temperatures (ST), mean air temperature (AT), and precipitation (P) increased with rates of 0.47 °C/decade, 0.36 °C/decade, 0.36 °C/decade, 0.35 °C/decade, and 7.36 mm/decade, respectively, while maximum frozen soil depth (MFD) as well as snow cover depth (MSD) decreased with rates of 5.58 and 0.07 cm/decade. Trends were significant at 99 or 95% confidence level for the variables, with the exception of P and MSD. More impressive rate of the ST at each level than the AT indicates the clear response of soil to climate warming on a regional scale. Monthly changes observed in surface ST in the past decades were consistent with those of AT, indicating a central place of AT in the soil warming. In addition, with the exception of MFD, regional scale increasing trend of P as well as the decreasing MSD also shed light on the mechanisms driving soil trends. Significant negative-dominated correlation coefficients (α = 0.05) between ST and MSD indicate the decreasing MSD trends in TP were attributable to increasing ST, especially in surface layer. Owing to the frozen ground, the relationship between ST and P is complicated in the area. Higher P also induced higher ST, while the inhibition of freeze and thaw process on the ST in summer. With the increasing AT, P accompanied with the decreasing MFD, MSD should be the major factors induced the conspicuous soil warming of the TP in the past decades.

  10. Observational constraints on Arctic boundary-layer clouds, surface moisture and sensible heat fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, D. L.; Boisvert, L.; Klaus, D.; Dethloff, K.; Ganeshan, M.

    2016-12-01

    The dry, cold environment and dynamic surface variations make the Arctic a unique but difficult region for observations, especially in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). Spaceborne platforms have been the key vantage point to capture basin-scale changes during the recent Arctic warming. Using the AIRS temperature, moisture and surface data, we found that the Arctic surface moisture flux (SMF) had increased by 7% during 2003-2013 (18 W/m2 equivalent in latent heat), mostly in spring and fall near the Arctic coastal seas where large sea ice reduction and sea surface temperature (SST) increase were observed. The increase in Arctic SMF correlated well with the increases in total atmospheric column water vapor and low-level clouds, when compared to CALIPSO cloud observations. It has been challenging for climate models to reliably determine Arctic cloud radiative forcing (CRF). Using the regional climate model HIRHAM5 and assuming a more efficient Bergeron-Findeisen process with generalized subgrid-scale variability for total water content, we were able to produce a cloud distribution that is more consistent with the CloudSat/CALIPSO observations. More importantly, the modified schemes decrease (increase) the cloud water (ice) content in mixed-phase clouds, which help to improve the modeled CRF and energy budget at the surface, because of the dominant role of the liquid water in CRF. Yet, the coupling between Arctic low clouds and the surface is complex and has strong impacts on ABL. Studying GPS/COSMIC radio occultation (RO) refractivity profiles in the Arctic coldest and driest months, we successfully derived ABL inversion height and surface-based inversion (SBI) frequency, and they were anti-correlated over the Arctic Ocean. For the late summer and early fall season, we further analyzed Japanese R/V Mirai ship measurements and found that the open-ocean surface sensible heat flux (SSHF) can explain 10 % of the ABL height variability, whereas mechanisms such as cloud

  11. Short-term climatic fluctuations and the interpretation of recent observations in terms of greenhouse effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andre, J.C.; Royer, J.F.

    1999-01-01

    Simulations of future climate made with coupled general circulation models of the atmosphere and ocean predict that the increase of the concentration of greenhouse gases released in the atmosphere by man's activities will have a large influence on the climate of the next century. The identification of the climatic impact produced by the rapid increase in carbon dioxide concentration in the last decades is made difficult by strong inter-annual climate variability, and requires the application of statistical techniques combining several climatic indicators (method of climatic 'fingerprints') so as to improve the detection of a possible anthropogenic perturbation. In this paper we review the evolution through the last decades of several climate indicators showing global warming, its geographical distribution, sea level, the hydrological cycle and the response of vegetation, and we compare them to the model results predicted in climate scenarios. The coherence between model results and observed climatic trends shows that the additional greenhouse effect is starting to become detectable in recent climatic data. (authors)

  12. Venus Surface Composition Constrained by Observation and Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmore, Martha; Treiman, Allan; Helbert, Jörn; Smrekar, Suzanne

    2017-11-01

    New observations from the Venus Express spacecraft as well as theoretical and experimental investigation of Venus analogue materials have advanced our understanding of the petrology of Venus melts and the mineralogy of rocks on the surface. The VIRTIS instrument aboard Venus Express provided a map of the southern hemisphere of Venus at ˜1 μm allowing, for the first time, the definition of surface units in terms of their 1 μm emissivity and derived mineralogy. Tessera terrain has lower emissivity than the presumably basaltic plains, consistent with a more silica-rich or felsic mineralogy. Thermodynamic modeling and experimental production of melts with Venera and Vega starting compositions predict derivative melts that range from mafic to felsic. Large volumes of felsic melts require water and may link the formation of tesserae to the presence of a Venus ocean. Low emissivity rocks may also be produced by atmosphere-surface weathering reactions unlike those seen presently. High 1 μm emissivity values correlate to stratigraphically recent flows and have been used with theoretical and experimental predictions of basalt weathering to identify regions of recent volcanism. The timescale of this volcanism is currently constrained by the weathering of magnetite (higher emissivity) in fresh basalts to hematite (lower emissivity) in Venus' oxidizing environment. Recent volcanism is corroborated by transient thermal anomalies identified by the VMC instrument aboard Venus Express. The interpretation of all emissivity data depends critically on understanding the composition of surface materials, kinetics of rock weathering and their measurement under Venus conditions. Extended theoretical studies, continued analysis of earlier spacecraft results, new atmospheric data, and measurements of mineral stability under Venus conditions have improved our understanding atmosphere-surface interactions. The calcite-wollastonite CO2 buffer has been discounted due, among other things, to

  13. Ocean Surface Wind Speed of Hurricane Helene Observed by SAR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Qing; Cheng, Yongcun; Li, Xiaofeng

    2011-01-01

    The hurricanes can be detected by many remote sensors, but synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can yield high-resolution (sub-kilometer) and low-level wind information that cannot be seen below the cloud by other sensors. In this paper, an assessment of SAR capability of monitoring high......-resolution hurricane was conducted. A case study was carried out to retrieve ocean surface wind field from C-band RADARSAT-1 SAR image which captured the structure of hurricane Helene over the Atlantic Ocean on 20 September, 2006. With wind direction from the outputs of U.S. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric...... CIWRAP models have been tested to extract wind speed from SAR data. The SAR retrieved ocean surface winds were compared to the aircraft wind speed observations from stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR). The results show the capability of hurricane wind monitoring by SAR....

  14. Ocean Surface Carbon Dioxide Fugacity Observed from Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, W. Timothy; Xie, Xiaosu

    2014-01-01

    We have developed and validated a statistical model to estimate the fugacity (or partial pressure) of carbon dioxide (CO2) at sea surface (pCO2sea) from space-based observations of sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll, and salinity. More than a quarter million in situ measurements coincident with satellite data were compiled to train and validate the model. We have produced and made accessible 9 years (2002-2010) of the pCO2sea at 0.5 degree resolutions daily over the global ocean. The results help to identify uncertainties in current JPL Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) model-based and bottom-up estimates over the ocean. The utility of the data to reveal multi-year and regional variability of the fugacity in relation to prevalent oceanic parameters is demonstrated.

  15. ENSO impact on surface radiative fluxes as observed from space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinker, R. T.; Grodsky, S. A.; Zhang, B.; Busalacchi, A.; Chen, W.

    2017-10-01

    We investigate the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on surface radiative fluxes over the tropical Pacific using satellite observations and fluxes derived from selected atmospheric reanalyses. Agreement between the two in this region is important because reanalysis information is frequently used to assess surface energy budget sensitivity to ENSO. We found that during the traditional ENSO, the maximum variance of anomalous incoming solar radiation is located just west of the dateline and coincides with the area of the largest anomalous SST gradient. It can reach up to 60 W/m2 and lags behind the Niño3 index by about a month, suggesting a response to anomalous SST gradient. The magnitude of longwave anomaly is only half that large and varies in phase with the SST anomaly. Similar anomalies were derived from outputs: from the European Centre for Medium-Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim (ERA-I), from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis version 2 (MERRA-2), from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 (R1), and from the Japanese JRA55 reanalysis. Among the four reanalyses used, results from ERA-I are the closest to observations. We have also investigated the surface wind divergence/convergence and found that the main factor limiting eastward excursions of convection is the surface wind convergence. Due to the wind divergence pattern normally present over the eastern cold tongue, anomalous convection extends into the eastern equatorial Pacific only during the strongest warm events. Our analysis also considers the El Niño Modoki events, for which the radiation flux patterns are shifted westward following the SST pattern.

  16. Pre-LBA Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study (ABRACOS) Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The data set presents the principal data from the Anglo-BRazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study (ABRACOS) (Gash et al. 1996) and provides quality controlled...

  17. Pre-LBA Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study (ABRACOS) Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The data set presents the principal data from the Anglo-BRazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study (ABRACOS) (Gash et al. 1996) and provides quality...

  18. Surface Net Solar Radiation Estimated from Satellite Measurements: Comparisons with Tower Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhanqing; Leighton, H. G.; Cess, Robert D.

    1993-01-01

    A parameterization that relates the reflected solar flux at the top of the atmosphere to the net solar flux at the surface in terms of only the column water vapor amount and the solar zenith angle was tested against surface observations. Net surface fluxes deduced from coincidental collocated satellite-measured radiances and from measurements from towers in Boulder during summer and near Saskatoon in winter have mean differences of about 2 W/sq m, regardless of whether the sky is clear or cloudy. Furthermore, comparisons between the net fluxes deduced from the parameterization and from surface measurements showed equally good agreement when the data were partitioned into morning and afternoon observations. This is in contrast to results from an empirical clear-sky algorithm that is unable to account adequately for the effects of clouds and that shows, at Boulder, a distinct morning to afternoon variation, which is presumably due to the predominance of different cloud types throughout the day. It is also demonstrated that the parameterization may be applied to irradiances at the top of the atmosphere that have been temporally averaged by using the temporally averaged column water vapor amount and the temporally averaged cosine of the solar zenith angle. The good agreement between the results of the parameterization and surface measurements suggests that the algorithm is a useful tool for a variety of climate studies.

  19. Long-term variations in the surface air 7Be concentration and climatic changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiwen, Liu; Starovoitova, Valeriia N; Wells, Douglas P

    2013-02-01

    We have used EML Surface Air Sampling Program (SASP) data to analyze the long-term trend in (7)Be surface concentration and address possible correlation between this long-term trend and climatic changes, namely changes in precipitation patterns and temperature. In this paper we present (7)Be concentration data from 23 sites, spanning over 25 years, all over the world, and extract long-term trend parameter using two independent techniques. The (7)Be concentrations in most stations show a pronounced decreasing trend, potentially corresponding to statistically significant changes in transporting (7)Be from upper atmosphere source to these sites. Weak negative correlation between (7)Be concentration and amount of precipitation was also observed. However, more data from more representative sites around the world are needed the statistical robustness of this trend. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  20. Observational study of surface wind along a sloping surface over mountainous terrain during winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Young-Hee; Lee, Gyuwon; Joo, Sangwon; Ahn, Kwang-Deuk

    2018-03-01

    The 2018 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games will be held in Pyeongchang, Korea, during February and March. We examined the near surface winds and wind gusts along the sloping surface at two outdoor venues in Pyeongchang during February and March using surface wind data. The outdoor venues are located in a complex, mountainous terrain, and hence the near-surface winds form intricate patterns due to the interplay between large-scale and locally forced winds. During February and March, the dominant wind at the ridge level is westerly; however, a significant wind direction change is observed along the sloping surface at the venues. The winds on the sloping surface are also influenced by thermal forcing, showing increased upslope flow during daytime. When neutral air flows over the hill, the windward and leeward flows show a significantly different behavior. A higher correlation of the wind speed between upper- and lower-level stations is shown in the windward region compared with the leeward region. The strong synoptic wind, small width of the ridge, and steep leeward ridge slope angle provide favorable conditions for flow separation at the leeward foot of the ridge. The gust factor increases with decreasing surface elevation and is larger during daytime than nighttime. A significantly large gust factor is also observed in the leeward region.

  1. The Effects of Heat Advection on UK Weather and Climate Observations in the Vicinity of Small Urbanized Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassett, Richard; Cai, Xiaoming; Chapman, Lee; Heaviside, Clare; Thornes, John E.

    2017-10-01

    Weather and climate networks traditionally follow rigorous siting guidelines, with individual stations located away from frost hollows, trees or urban areas. However, the diverse nature of the UK landscape suggests that the feasibility of siting stations that are truly representative of regional climate and free from distorting local effects is increasingly difficult. Whilst the urban heat island is a well-studied phenomenon and usually accounted for, the effect of warm urban air advected downwind is rarely considered, particularly at rural stations adjacent to urban areas. Until recently, urban heat advection (UHA) was viewed as an urban boundary-layer process through the formation of an urban plume that rises above the surface as it is advected. However, these dynamic UHA effects are shown to also have an impact on surface observations. Results show a significant difference in temperatures anomalies (p careful interpretation of long-term temperature data taken near small urban areas.

  2. Regionalizing Africa: Patterns of Precipitation Variability in Observations and Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badr, Hamada S.; Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2016-01-01

    Many studies have documented dramatic climatic and environmental changes that have affected Africa over different time scales. These studies often raise questions regarding the spatial extent and regional connectivity of changes inferred from observations and proxies and/or derived from climate models. Objective regionalization offers a tool for addressing these questions. To demonstrate this potential, applications of hierarchical climate regionalizations of Africa using observations and GCM historical simulations and future projections are presented. First, Africa is regionalized based on interannual precipitation variability using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data for the period 19812014. A number of data processing techniques and clustering algorithms are tested to ensure a robust definition of climate regions. These regionalization results highlight the seasonal and even month-to-month specificity of regional climate associations across the continent, emphasizing the need to consider time of year as well as research question when defining a coherent region for climate analysis. CHIRPS regions are then compared to those of five GCMs for the historic period, with a focus on boreal summer. Results show that some GCMs capture the climatic coherence of the Sahel and associated teleconnections in a manner that is similar to observations, while other models break the Sahel into uncorrelated subregions or produce a Sahel-like region of variability that is spatially displaced from observations. Finally, shifts in climate regions under projected twenty-first-century climate change for different GCMs and emissions pathways are examined. A projected change is found in the coherence of the Sahel, in which the western and eastern Sahel become distinct regions with different teleconnections. This pattern is most pronounced in high-emissions scenarios.

  3. Pacific climate variability and the possible impact on global surface CO2 flux

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kawamiya Michio

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Climate variability modifies both oceanic and terrestrial surface CO2 flux. Using observed/assimilated data sets, earlier studies have shown that tropical oceanic climate variability has strong impacts on the land surface temperature and soil moisture, and that there is a negative correlation between the oceanic and terrestrial CO2 fluxes. However, these data sets only cover less than the most recent 20 years and are insufficient for identifying decadal and longer periodic variabilities. To investigate possible impacts of interannual to interdecadal climate variability on CO2 flux exchange, the last 125 years of an earth system model (ESM control run are examined. Results Global integration of the terrestrial CO2 flux anomaly shows variation much greater in amplitude and longer in periodic timescale than the oceanic flux. The terrestrial CO2 flux anomaly correlates negatively with the oceanic flux in some periods, but positively in others, as the periodic timescale is different between the two variables. To determine the spatial pattern of the variability, a series of composite analyses are performed. The results show that the oceanic CO2 flux variability peaks when the eastern tropical Pacific has a large sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA. By contrast, the terrestrial CO2 flux variability peaks when the SSTA appears in the central tropical Pacific. The former pattern of variability resembles the ENSO-mode and the latter the ENSO-modoki1. Conclusions Our results imply that the oceanic and terrestrial CO2 flux anomalies may correlate either positively or negatively depending on the relative phase of these two modes in the tropical Pacific.

  4. Pacific climate variability and the possible impact on global surface CO2 flux.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okajima, Hideki; Kawamiya, Michio

    2011-10-08

    Climate variability modifies both oceanic and terrestrial surface CO2 flux. Using observed/assimilated data sets, earlier studies have shown that tropical oceanic climate variability has strong impacts on the land surface temperature and soil moisture, and that there is a negative correlation between the oceanic and terrestrial CO2 fluxes. However, these data sets only cover less than the most recent 20 years and are insufficient for identifying decadal and longer periodic variabilities. To investigate possible impacts of interannual to interdecadal climate variability on CO2 flux exchange, the last 125 years of an earth system model (ESM) control run are examined. Global integration of the terrestrial CO2 flux anomaly shows variation much greater in amplitude and longer in periodic timescale than the oceanic flux. The terrestrial CO2 flux anomaly correlates negatively with the oceanic flux in some periods, but positively in others, as the periodic timescale is different between the two variables. To determine the spatial pattern of the variability, a series of composite analyses are performed. The results show that the oceanic CO2 flux variability peaks when the eastern tropical Pacific has a large sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA). By contrast, the terrestrial CO2 flux variability peaks when the SSTA appears in the central tropical Pacific. The former pattern of variability resembles the ENSO-mode and the latter the ENSO-modoki1. Our results imply that the oceanic and terrestrial CO2 flux anomalies may correlate either positively or negatively depending on the relative phase of these two modes in the tropical Pacific.

  5. Suzaku observations of low surface brightness cluster Abell 1631

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babazaki, Yasunori; Mitsuishi, Ikuyuki; Ota, Naomi; Sasaki, Shin; Böhringer, Hans; Chon, Gayoung; Pratt, Gabriel W.; Matsumoto, Hironori

    2018-04-01

    We present analysis results for a nearby galaxy cluster Abell 1631 at z = 0.046 using the X-ray observatory Suzaku. This cluster is categorized as a low X-ray surface brightness cluster. To study the dynamical state of the cluster, we conduct four-pointed Suzaku observations and investigate physical properties of the Mpc-scale hot gas associated with the A 1631 cluster for the first time. Unlike relaxed clusters, the X-ray image shows no strong peak at the center and an irregular morphology. We perform spectral analysis and investigate the radial profiles of the gas temperature, density, and entropy out to approximately 1.5 Mpc in the east, north, west, and south directions by combining with the XMM-Newton data archive. The measured gas density in the central region is relatively low (a few ×10-4 cm-3) at the given temperature (˜2.9 keV) compared with X-ray-selected clusters. The entropy profile and value within the central region (r < 0.1 r200) are found to be flatter and higher (≳400 keV cm2). The observed bolometric luminosity is approximately three times lower than that expected from the luminosity-temperature relation in previous studies of relaxed clusters. These features are also observed in another low surface brightness cluster, Abell 76. The spatial distributions of galaxies and the hot gas appear to be different. The X-ray luminosity is relatively lower than that expected from the velocity dispersion. A post-merger scenario may explain the observed results.

  6. Sensitivity of Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance to surface albedo parameterization: a study with a regional climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. H. van Angelen

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available We present a sensitivity study of the surface mass balance (SMB of the Greenland Ice Sheet, as modeled using a regional atmospheric climate model, to various parameter settings in the albedo scheme. The snow albedo scheme uses grain size as a prognostic variable and further depends on cloud cover, solar zenith angle and black carbon concentration. For the control experiment the overestimation of absorbed shortwave radiation (+6% at the K-transect (west Greenland for the period 2004–2009 is considerably reduced compared to the previous density-dependent albedo scheme (+22%. To simulate realistic snow albedo values, a small concentration of black carbon is needed, which has strongest impact on melt in the accumulation area. A background ice albedo field derived from MODIS imagery improves the agreement between the modeled and observed SMB gradient along the K-transect. The effect of enhanced meltwater retention and refreezing is a decrease of the albedo due to an increase in snow grain size. As a secondary effect of refreezing the snowpack is heated, enhancing melt and further lowering the albedo. Especially in a warmer climate this process is important, since it reduces the refreezing potential of the firn layer that covers the Greenland Ice Sheet.

  7. Planetary surface characterization from dual-polarization radar observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virkki, Anne; Planetary Radar Team of the Arecibo Observatory

    2017-10-01

    We present a new method to investigate the physical properties of planetary surfaces using dual-polarization radar measurements. The number of radar observations has increased radically during the last five years, allowing us to compare the radar scattering properties of different small-body populations and compositional types. There has also been progress in the laboratory studies of the materials that are relevant to asteroids and comets.In a typical planetary radar measurement a circularly polarized signal is transmitted using a frequency of 2380 MHz (wavelength of 12.6 cm) or 8560 MHz (3.5 cm). The echo is received simultaneously in the same circular (SC) and the opposite circular (OC) polarization as the transmitted signal. The delay and doppler frequency of the signal give highly accurate astrometric information, and the intensity and the polarization are suggestive of the physical properties of the target's near-surface.The radar albedo describes the radar reflectivity of the target. If the effective near-surface is smooth and homogeneous in the wavelength-scale, the echo is received fully in the OC polarization. Wavelength-scale surface roughness or boulders within the effective near-surface volume increase the received echo power in both polarizations. However, there is a lack in the literature describing exactly how the physical properties of the target affect the radar albedo in each polarization, or how they can be derived from the radar measurements.To resolve this problem, we utilize the information that the diffuse components of the OC and SC parts are correlated when the near-surface contains wavelength-scale scatterers such as boulders. A linear least-squares fit to the detected values of OC and SC radar albedos allows us to separate the diffusely scattering part from the quasi-specular part. Combined with the spectro-photometric information of the target and laboratory studies of the permittivity-density dependence, the method provides us with a

  8. A 65--70 year oscillation in observed surface temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schlesinger, M.E.; Ramankutty, N.

    1994-01-01

    There are three possible sources for the 65--70-year ''global'' oscillation: (1) random forcing of the ocean by the atmosphere, such as by white noise; (2) external oscillatory forcing of the climate system, such as by a variation in the solar irradiance; and (3) an internal oscillation of the atmosphere-ocean system. It is unlikely that putative variations in solar irradiance are the source of the oscillation because solar forcing should generate a global response, but the oscillation is not global. It is also unlikely that white-noise forcing is the source of the oscillation because such forcing should generate an oceanwide response, but the oscillation is not panoceanic. Consequently, the most probable cause of the oscillation is an internal oscillation of the atmosphere-ocean system. This conclusion is supported by a growing body of observational evidence and coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation model simulation results. Comparison of the regional and global-mean temperature changes caused by the oscillation with those induced by GHG + ASA forcing shows that the rapid rise in global-mean temperature between about 1908 and 1946, and the subsequent reversal of this warming until about 1965 were the result of the oscillation. In the North Atlantic and North American regions, the domination of the GHG + ASA-induced warming by the oscillation has obscured and confounded detection of this warming

  9. Impacts of Climate Change on Surface Ozone and Intercontinental Ozone Pollution: A Multi-Model Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doherty, R. M.; Wild, O.; Shindell, D. T.; Zeng, G.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Collins, W. J.; Fiore, A. M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Dentener, F. J.; Schultz, M. G.; hide

    2013-01-01

    The impact of climate change between 2000 and 2095 SRES A2 climates on surface ozone (O)3 and on O3 source-receptor (S-R) relationships is quantified using three coupled climate-chemistry models (CCMs). The CCMs exhibit considerable variability in the spatial extent and location of surface O3 increases that occur within parts of high NOx emission source regions (up to 6 ppbv in the annual average and up to 14 ppbv in the season of maximum O3). In these source regions, all three CCMs show a positive relationship between surface O3 change and temperature change. Sensitivity simulations show that a combination of three individual chemical processes-(i) enhanced PAN decomposition, (ii) higher water vapor concentrations, and (iii) enhanced isoprene emission-largely reproduces the global spatial pattern of annual-mean surface O3 response due to climate change (R2 = 0.52). Changes in climate are found to exert a stronger control on the annual-mean surface O3 response through changes in climate-sensitive O3 chemistry than through changes in transport as evaluated from idealized CO-like tracer concentrations. All three CCMs exhibit a similar spatial pattern of annual-mean surface O3 change to 20% regional O3 precursor emission reductions under future climate compared to the same emission reductions applied under present-day climate. The surface O3 response to emission reductions is larger over the source region and smaller downwind in the future than under present-day conditions. All three CCMs show areas within Europe where regional emission reductions larger than 20% are required to compensate climate change impacts on annual-mean surface O3.

  10. Impact of an observational time window on coupled data assimilation: simulation with a simple climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhao

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate signals are the results of interactions of multiple timescale media such as the atmosphere and ocean in the coupled earth system. Coupled data assimilation (CDA pursues balanced and coherent climate analysis and prediction initialization by incorporating observations from multiple media into a coupled model. In practice, an observational time window (OTW is usually used to collect measured data for an assimilation cycle to increase observational samples that are sequentially assimilated with their original error scales. Given different timescales of characteristic variability in different media, what are the optimal OTWs for the coupled media so that climate signals can be most accurately recovered by CDA? With a simple coupled model that simulates typical scale interactions in the climate system and twin CDA experiments, we address this issue here. Results show that in each coupled medium, an optimal OTW can provide maximal observational information that best fits the characteristic variability of the medium during the data blending process. Maintaining correct scale interactions, the resulting CDA improves the analysis of climate signals greatly. These simple model results provide a guideline for when the real observations are assimilated into a coupled general circulation model for improving climate analysis and prediction initialization by accurately recovering important characteristic variability such as sub-diurnal in the atmosphere and diurnal in the ocean.

  11. Comparison of land surface humidity between observations and CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, Robert J. H.; Willett, Kate M.; Ciavarella, Andrew; Stott, Peter A.

    2017-08-01

    We compare the latest observational land surface humidity dataset, HadISDH, with the latest generation of climate models extracted from the CMIP5 archive and the ERA-Interim reanalysis over the period 1973 to present. The globally averaged behaviour of HadISDH and ERA-Interim are very similar in both humidity measures and air temperature, on decadal and interannual timescales. The global average relative humidity shows a gradual increase from 1973 to 2000, followed by a steep decline in recent years. The observed specific humidity shows a steady increase in the global average during the early period but in the later period it remains approximately constant. None of the CMIP5 models or experiments capture the observed behaviour of the relative or specific humidity over the entire study period. When using an atmosphere-only model, driven by observed sea surface temperatures and radiative forcing changes, the behaviour of regional average temperature and specific humidity are better captured, but there is little improvement in the relative humidity. Comparing the observed climatologies with those from historical model runs shows that the models are generally cooler everywhere, are drier and less saturated in the tropics and extra-tropics, and have comparable moisture levels but are more saturated in the high latitudes. The spatial pattern of linear trends is relatively similar between the models and HadISDH for temperature and specific humidity, but there are large differences for relative humidity, with less moistening shown in the models over the tropics and very little at high latitudes. The observed drying in mid-latitudes is present at a much lower magnitude in the CMIP5 models. Relationships between temperature and humidity anomalies (T-q and T-rh) show good agreement for specific humidity between models and observations, and between the models themselves, but much poorer for relative humidity. The T-q correlation from the models is more steeply positive than

  12. Characterizing Surface Energy Budget Components in Urban Regions Using Combination of Flux Tower Observations and Satellite Remote Sensing Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norouzi, H.; Vant-hull, B.; Ramamurthy, P.; Blake, R.; Prakash, D. S.

    2016-12-01

    Urban and built regions because of their lack of surface moisture and their surface impermeability significantly perform differently in surface energy budget than natural and non-urban regions. Characterizing the effect and the response of each surface type in the cities can help to increase our understanding of climate, anthropogenic heat, and urban heat islands. Both ground observations and remote sensing observations are important when the extent of the heat energy balance components in big cities is targeted. This is study aims to provide a novel approach to use ground observations and map the maxima and minima air temperature in New York City using satellite measurements. Complete energy balance stations are installed over distinct materials such as concrete, asphalt, and rooftops. The footprint of these stations is restricted to the individual materials. The energy balance stations monitor the sensible and latent heat fluxes through eddy covariance method. To account for the incoming and outgoing radiation, a 4-component radiometer is used that can observe both incoming and outgoing longwave and shortwave radiation. Moreover, satellite observations from Landsat 8 are utilized to classify the city surfaces to distinct defined surfaces where ground observations were performed. The mapped temperatures will be linked to MODIS surface temperatures to develop a model that can downscale MODIS skin temperatures to fine resolution air temperature over urban regions. The results are compared with ground observations, which they reveal a great potential of using synergetic use of flux tower observations and satellite measurement to study urban surface energy budget. The results of this study can enhance our understanding about urban heat islands as well as climate studies and their effects on the environment.

  13. Confronting Weather and Climate Models with Observational Data from Soil Moisture Networks over the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Wu, Jiexia; Norton, Holly E.; Dorigo, Wouter A.; Quiring, Steven M.; Ford, Trenton W.; Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Ek, Michael B.; Koster, Randal Dean; hide

    2016-01-01

    Four land surface models in uncoupled and coupled configurations are compared to observations of daily soil moisture from 19 networks in the conterminous United States to determine the viability of such comparisons and explore the characteristics of model and observational data. First, observations are analyzed for error characteristics and representation of spatial and temporal variability. Some networks have multiple stations within an area comparable to model grid boxes; for those we find that aggregation of stations before calculation of statistics has little effect on estimates of variance, but soil moisture memory is sensitive to aggregation. Statistics for some networks stand out as unlike those of their neighbors, likely due to differences in instrumentation, calibration and maintenance. Buried sensors appear to have less random error than near-field remote sensing techniques, and heat dissipation sensors show less temporal variability than other types. Model soil moistures are evaluated using three metrics: standard deviation in time, temporal correlation (memory) and spatial correlation (length scale). Models do relatively well in capturing large-scale variability of metrics across climate regimes, but poorly reproduce observed patterns at scales of hundreds of kilometers and smaller. Uncoupled land models do no better than coupled model configurations, nor do reanalyses out perform free-running models. Spatial decorrelation scales are found to be difficult to diagnose. Using data for model validation, calibration or data assimilation from multiple soil moisture networks with different types of sensors and measurement techniques requires great caution. Data from models and observations should be put on the same spatial and temporal scales before comparison.

  14. Anthropogenic Changes in Mid-latitude Storm and Blocking Activities from Observations and Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, D.

    2017-12-01

    Fingerprints of anthropogenic climate change can be most readily detected in the high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere, where temperature has been rising faster than the rest of the globe and sea ice cover has shrunk dramatically over recent decades. Reducing the meridional temperature gradient, this amplified warming over the high latitudes influences weather in the middle latitudes by modulating the jet stream, storms, and atmospheric blocking activities. Whether observational records have revealed significant changes in mid-latitude storms and blocking activities, however, has remained a subject of much debate. Buried deep in strong year-to-year variations, the long-term dynamic responses of the atmosphere are more difficult to identify, compared with its thermodynamic responses. Variabilities of decadal and longer timescales further obscure any trends diagnosed from satellite observations, which are often shorter than 40 years. Here, new metrics reflecting storm and blocking activities are developed using surface air temperature and pressure records, and their variations and long-term trends are examined. This approach gives an inkling of the changes in storm and blocking activities since the Industrial Revolution in regions with abundant long-term observational records, e.g. Europe and North America. The relationship between Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation and variations in storm and blocking activities across the Atlantic is also scrutinized. The connection between observed centennial trends and anthropogenic forcings is investigated using a hierarchy of numerical tools, from highly idealized to fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Pre-industrial control simulations and a set of large ensemble simulations forced by increased CO2 are analyzed to evaluate the range of natural variabilities, which paves the way to singling out significant anthropogenic changes from observational records, as well as predicting future changes in mid-latitude storm and

  15. Climate variability and atmospheric teleconnection from satellite observed cloud fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, K. M.; Chan, P. H.

    1983-01-01

    To investigate the low-frequency variability of the large-scale circulation over the tropics and its relationship with different regions of the globe, statistics of cloud fluctuations, as inferred from outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) are used. The data consists of seven years of global OLR in a 2.5 x 2.5-deg grid derived from NOAA polar orbiting satellite observations. The time series of area-averaged monthly deviation from the seven-year mean of OLR over an equatorial Central Pacific region is presented. It is shown that positive and negative deviations reflect local drier and wetter than normal conditions, respectively. Consideration is given to teleconnection based on the Central Pacific variations and to southern oscillation contributions.

  16. Modeling and observational occurrences of near-surface drainage in Utopia Planitia, Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costard, F.; Sejourne, A.; Kargel, J.; Godin, E.

    2016-12-01

    During the past 15 years, evidence for an ice-rich planet Mars has rapidly mounted, become increasingly varied in terms of types of deposits and types of observational data, and has become more widespread across the surface. The mid-latitudes of Mars, especially Utopia Planitia, show many types of interesting landforms similar to those in periglacial landscapes on Earth that suggest the presence of ice-rich permafrost. These include thermal contraction polygonal networks, scalloped terrains similar to thermokarst pits, debris flows, small mounds like pingos and rock glaciers. Here, we address questions concerning the influence of meltwater in the Utopia Planitia (UP) landscape using analogs of near-surface melting and drainage along ice-wedge troughs on Bylot Island, northern Canada. In Utopia Planitia, based on the identification of sinuous channel-like pits within polygonal networks, we suggest that episodic underground melting was possible under severe periglacial climate conditions. In UP, the collapse pattern and morphology of unconnected sinuous elongated pits that follow the polygon crack are similar to underground melting in Bylot Island (Nunavut, Canada). Based on this terrestrial analogue, we develop a thermal model that consists of a thick insulating dusty layer over ice-saturated dust during a period of slight climatic warming relative to today's climate. In the model, the melting point is reached at depths down to 150 m. We suggest that small-scale melting could have occurred below ground within ground-ice polygonal fractures and pooled in underground cavities. Then the water may have been released episodically causing mechanical erosion as well as undermining and collapse. After melting, the dry surface dusty layer might have been blown away, thus exposing the degraded terrain of the substrate layer.

  17. Future Plans in US Flight Missions: Using Laser Remote Sensing for Climate Science Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callahan, Lisa W.

    2010-01-01

    Laser Remote Sensing provides critical climate science observations necessary to better measure, understand, model and predict the Earth's water, carbon and energy cycles. Laser Remote Sensing applications for studying the Earth and other planets include three dimensional mapping of surface topography, canopy height and density, atmospheric measurement of aerosols and trace gases, plume and cloud profiles, and winds measurements. Beyond the science, data from these missions will produce new data products and applications for a multitude of end users including policy makers and urban planners on local, national and global levels. NASA Missions in formulation including Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat 2) and the Deformation, Ecosystem Structure, and Dynamics of Ice (DESDynI), and future missions such as the Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days and Seasons (ASCENDS), will incorporate the next generation of LIght Detection And Ranging (lidar) instruments to measure changes in the surface elevation of the ice, quantify ecosystem carbon storage due to biomass and its change, and provide critical data on CO 2 in the atmosphere. Goddard's plans for these instruments and potential uses for the resulting data are described below. For the ICESat 2 mission, GSFC is developing a micro-pulse multi-beam lidar. This instrument will provide improved ice elevation estimates over high slope and very rough areas and result in improved lead detection for sea ice estimates. Data about the sea ice and predictions related to sea levels will continue to help inform urban planners as the changes in the polar ice accelerate. DESDynI is planned to be launched in 2017 and includes both lidar and radar instruments. GSFC is responsible for the lidar portion of the DESDynI mission and is developing a scanning laser altimeter that will measure the Earth's topography, the structure of tree canopies, biomass, and surface roughness. The DESDynI lidar will also measure and

  18. Inverse modeling of hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in the Community Land Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Y.; Hou, Z.; Huang, M.; Tian, F.; Leung, L. Ruby

    2013-12-01

    This study demonstrates the possibility of inverting hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4). Previous studies showed that surface flux and runoff calculations are sensitive to major hydrologic parameters in CLM4 over different watersheds, and illustrated the necessity and possibility of parameter calibration. Both deterministic least-square fitting and stochastic Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-Bayesian inversion approaches are evaluated by applying them to CLM4 at selected sites with different climate and soil conditions. The unknowns to be estimated include surface and subsurface runoff generation parameters and vadose zone soil water parameters. We find that using model parameters calibrated by the sampling-based stochastic inversion approaches provides significant improvements in the model simulations compared to using default CLM4 parameter values, and that as more information comes in, the predictive intervals (ranges of posterior distributions) of the calibrated parameters become narrower. In general, parameters that are identified to be significant through sensitivity analyses and statistical tests are better calibrated than those with weak or nonlinear impacts on flux or runoff observations. Temporal resolution of observations has larger impacts on the results of inverse modeling using heat flux data than runoff data. Soil and vegetation cover have important impacts on parameter sensitivities, leading to different patterns of posterior distributions of parameters at different sites. Overall, the MCMC-Bayesian inversion approach effectively and reliably improves the simulation of CLM under different climates and environmental conditions. Bayesian model averaging of the posterior estimates with different reference acceptance probabilities can smooth the posterior distribution and provide more reliable parameter estimates, but at the expense of wider uncertainty bounds.

  19. Use of new satellite sea surface temperature observations in OSTIA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiedler, Emma; Mao, Chongyuan; Good, Simon

    2017-04-01

    OSTIA is the Met Office's Operational SST (Sea Surface Temperature) and Ice Analysis system, which produces L4 (globally complete, gridded) analyses on a daily basis. The product is made freely available through CMEMS (Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service). Additional satellite SST datasets have been assimilated into the OSTIA analysis operationally from 15 March 2016. These datasets are ACSPO VIIRS L3U from NOAA/NESDIS/STAR and AMSR2 L2P from REMSS (Remote Sensing Systems). This has led to a sizable improvement in the RMS error of the OSTIA analysis compared to independent Argo observations. Test runs assimilating ACSPO VIIRS and REMSS AMSR2 observations separately have indicated that the total improvement is due to the action of both datasets together rather than one or the other. In addition, ACSPO VIIRS replaced MetOp-A AVHRR as the reference satellite dataset used in OSTIA on 6 November 2016. The reference satellite data, in addition to in situ observations, are used for bias correction of the other satellite data types used in the analysis. The change to using VIIRS as a reference has led to notable improvements in regional biases for OSTIA compared to Argo, drifters and other satellite SST datasets, particularly in the high latitudes. Methods will be described and validation results shown in this presentation.

  20. Assessing the relationship between surface urban heat islands and landscape patterns across climatic zones in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Qiquan; Huang, Xin; Li, Jiayi

    2017-08-24

    The urban heat island (UHI) effect exerts a great influence on the Earth's environment and human health and has been the subject of considerable attention. Landscape patterns are among the most important factors relevant to surface UHIs (SUHIs); however, the relationship between SUHIs and landscape patterns is poorly understood over large areas. In this study, the surface UHI intensity (SUHII) is defined as the temperature difference between urban and suburban areas, and the landscape patterns are quantified by the urban-suburban differences in several typical landscape metrics (ΔLMs). Temperature and land-cover classification datasets based on satellite observations were applied to analyze the relationship between SUHII and ΔLMs in 332 cities/city agglomerations distributed in different climatic zones of China. The results indicate that SUHII and its correlations with ΔLMs are profoundly influenced by seasonal, diurnal, and climatic factors. The impacts of different land-cover types on SUHIs are different, and the landscape patterns of the built-up and vegetation (including forest, grassland, and cultivated land) classes have the most significant effects on SUHIs. The results of this study will help us to gain a deeper understanding of the relationship between the SUHI effect and landscape patterns.

  1. The French Contribution to the Voluntary Observing Ships Network of Sea Surface Salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delcroix, T. C.; Alory, G.; Téchiné, P.; Diverrès, D.; Varillon, D.; Cravatte, S. E.; Gouriou, Y.; Grelet, J.; Jacquin, S.; Kestenare, E.; Maes, C.; Morrow, R.; Perrier, J.; Reverdin, G. P.; Roubaud, F.

    2016-02-01

    Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) is an essential climate variable that requires long term in situ observation. The French SSS Observation Service (SSS-OS) manages a network of Voluntary Observing Ships equipped with thermosalinographs (TSG). The network is global though more concentrated in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic oceanic basins. The acquisition system is autonomous with real time transmission and is regularly serviced at harbor calls. There are distinct real time and delayed time processing chains. Real time processing includes automatic alerts to detect potential instrument problems, in case raw data are outside of climatic limits, and graphical monitoring tools. Delayed time processing relies on a dedicated software for attribution of data quality flags by visual inspection, and correction of TSG time series by comparison with daily water samples and collocated Argo data. A method for optimizing the automatic attribution of quality flags in real time, based on testing different thresholds for data deviation from climatology and retroactively comparing the resulting flags to delayed time flags, is presented. The SSS-OS real time data feed the Coriolis operational oceanography database, while the research-quality delayed time data can be extracted for selected time and geographical ranges through a graphical web interface. Delayed time data have been also combined with other SSS data sources to produce gridded files for the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. A short review of the research activities conducted with such data is given. It includes observation-based process-oriented and climate studies from regional to global scale as well as studies where in situ SSS is used for calibration/validation of models, coral proxies or satellite data.

  2. Surface Freshwater Storage Variations in the Orinoco Floodplains Using Multi-Satellite Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric Frappart

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Variations in surface water extent and storage are poorly characterized from regional to global scales. In this study, a multi-satellite approach is proposed to estimate the water stored in the floodplains of the Orinoco Basin at a monthly time-scale using remotely-sensed observations of surface water from the Global Inundation Extent Multi-Satellite (GIEMS and stages from Envisat radar altimetry. Surface water storage variations over 2003–2007 exhibit large interannual variability and a strong seasonal signal, peaking during summer, and associated with the flood pulse. The volume of surface water storage in the Orinoco Basin was highly correlated with the river discharge at Ciudad Bolivar (R = 0.95, the closest station to the mouth where discharge was estimated, although discharge lagged one month behind storage. The correlation remained high (R = 0.73 after removing seasonal effects. Mean annual variations in surface water volume represented ~170 km3, contributing to ~45% of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE-derived total water storage variations and representing ~13% of the total volume of water that flowed out of the Orinoco Basin to the Atlantic Ocean.

  3. Synergy of Satellite-Surface Observations for Studying the Properties of Absorbing Aerosols in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsay, Si-Chee

    2010-01-01

    Through interaction with clouds and alteration of the Earth's radiation budget, atmospheric aerosols significantly influence our weather and climate. Monsoon rainfalls, for example, sustain the livelihood of more than half of the world's population. Thus, understanding the mechanism that drives the water cycle and freshwater distribution is high-lighted as one of the major near-term goals in NASA's Earth Science Enterprise Strategy. Every cloud droplet/ice-crystal that serves as an essential element in portraying water cycle and distributing freshwater contains atmospheric aerosols at its core. In addition, the spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric aerosol properties is complex due to their dynamic nature. In fact, the predictability of the tropical climate system is much reduced during the boreal spring, which is associated with the peak season of biomass burning activities and regional/long-range transport of dust aerosols. Therefore, to accurately assess the impact of absorbing aerosols on regional-to-global climate requires not only modeling efforts but also continuous observations from satellites, aircraft, networks of ground-based instruments and dedicated field experiments. Since 1997 NASA has been successfully launching a series of satellites the Earth Observing System - to intensively study, and gain a better understanding of, the Earth as an integrated system. Through participation in many satellite remote-sensing/retrieval and validation projects over the years, we have gradually developed and refined the SMART (Surface-sensing Measurements for Atmospheric Radiative Transfer) and COMMIT (Chemical, Optical & Microphysical Measurements of In-situ Troposphere) mobile observatories, a suite of surface remote sensing and in-situ instruments that proved to be vital in providing high temporal measurements, which complement the satellite observations. In this talk, we will present SMART-COMMIT which has played key roles, serving as network or supersite

  4. Quantifying the impact of climate change on enteric waterborne pathogen concentrations in surface water

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofstra, N.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change, among other factors, will impact waterborne pathogen concentrations in surface water worldwide, possibly increasing the risk of diseases caused by these pathogens. So far, the impacts are only determined qualitatively and thorough quantitative estimates of future pathogen

  5. Relevance of decadal variations in surface radiative fluxes for climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, Martin

    2013-05-01

    Recent evidence suggests that radiative fluxes incident at Earth's surface are not stable over time but undergo significant changes on decadal timescales. This is not only found in the thermal spectral range, where an increase in the downwelling flux is expected due to the increasing greenhouse effect, but also in the solar spectral range. Observations suggest that surface solar radiation, after a period of decline from the 1950s to the 1980s ("global dimming"), reversed into a "brightening" since the mid-1980s at widespread locations, often in line with changes in anthropogenic air pollution. These decadal variations observed in both solar and thermal surface radiative fluxes have the potential to affect various aspects of climate change. Discussed here are specifically the evidence for potential effects on global warming, as seen in asymmetries in hemispheric warming rates as well as in differences in the decadal warming rates over land and oceans. These variations in observed warming rates fit well to our conceptual understanding of how aerosol and greenhouse gas-induced changes in the surface radiative fluxes should affect global warming. Specifically, on the Northern Hemisphere, the suppression of warming from the 1950s to the 1980s fits to the concurrent dimming and increasing air pollution, while the accelerated warming from the 1980s to 2000 matches with the brightening and associated reduction in pollution levels. The suppression of warming from the 1950s to the 1980s is even somewhat stronger over oceans than over land, in line with the conceptual idea that aerosol-induced dimming and brightening tendencies may be enhanced through cloud aerosol interactions particularly over the pristine ocean areas. On the Southern Hemisphere, the absence of significant pollution levels as well as trend reversals therein, fit to the observed stable warming rates over the entire 1950 to 2000 period.

  6. Less sensitive of urban surface to climate variability than rural in Northern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Rui; Wang, Lunche; Huang, Xin; Chen, Jiangping; Li, Jiarui; Niu, Zigeng

    2018-02-14

    In this study, the relationships between interannual variations of surface urban heat islands (SUHIs) and climate variability were studied in 31 cities of China for the period 2001-2016. For cold and dry Northern China, it was found that the interannual variations of SUHI intensity (SUHII, land surface temperature (LST) in urban minus rural) in urban cores was significantly (purban cores (1.141°C for SDs and 2.535°C for WDs) than in rural areas (1.890°C for SDs and 3.377°C for WDs). The standard deviation was further used to reflect the interannual stabilities of LST, enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and white sky albedo (WSA). Interestingly, the standard deviations of LST across 2001-2016 were generally lower in urban cores (0.994°C for SDs and 1.577°C for WDs) than in rural areas (1.431°C for SDs and 2.077°C for WDs). Similar results were observed for EVI and WSA (winter). The results suggested that the urban surface is less sensitive to climate variability than rural areas in Northern China. Comparatively, most findings were less evident in hot and humid Southern China. Despite the whole world would become warmer or colder in future, the insensitivity of urban surface may mitigate its impacts in cold and dry Northern China. However, it does not mean that urbanization is totally good due to its environmental problem. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. A cosmic ray-climate link and cloud observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dunne Eimear M.

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Despite over 35 years of constant satellite-based measurements of cloud, reliable evidence of a long-hypothesized link between changes in solar activity and Earth’s cloud cover remains elusive. This work examines evidence of a cosmic ray cloud link from a range of sources, including satellite-based cloud measurements and long-term ground-based climatological measurements. The satellite-based studies can be divided into two categories: (1 monthly to decadal timescale analysis and (2 daily timescale epoch-superpositional (composite analysis. The latter analyses frequently focus on sudden high-magnitude reductions in the cosmic ray flux known as Forbush decrease events. At present, two long-term independent global satellite cloud datasets are available (ISCCP and MODIS. Although the differences between them are considerable, neither shows evidence of a solar-cloud link at either long or short timescales. Furthermore, reports of observed correlations between solar activity and cloud over the 1983–1995 period are attributed to the chance agreement between solar changes and artificially induced cloud trends. It is possible that the satellite cloud datasets and analysis methods may simply be too insensitive to detect a small solar signal. Evidence from ground-based studies suggests that some weak but statistically significant cosmic ray-cloud relationships may exist at regional scales, involving mechanisms related to the global electric circuit. However, a poor understanding of these mechanisms and their effects on cloud makes the net impacts of such links uncertain. Regardless of this, it is clear that there is no robust evidence of a widespread link between the cosmic ray flux and clouds.

  8. Combining Satellite Data and Models to Assess the Impacts of Urbanization on the Continental US Surface Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bounoua, L.; Zhang, P.; Imhoff, M.; Santanello, J.; Kumar, S.; Shepherd, M.; Quattrochi, D.; Silva, J.; Rosenzweigh, C.; Gaffin, S.; hide

    2013-01-01

    Urbanization is one of the most important and long lasting forms of land transformation. Urbanization affects the surface climate in different ways: (1) by reduction of the vegetation fraction causing subsequent reduction in photosynthesis and plant s water transpiration, (2) by alternation of surface runoff and infiltration and their impacts on soil moisture and the water table, (3) by change in the surface albedo and surface energy partitioning, and (4) by transformation of the surface roughness length and modification of surface fluxes. Land cover and land use change maps including urban areas have been developed and will be used in a suite of land surface models of different complexity to assess the impacts of urbanization on the continental US surface climate. These maps and datasets based on a full range of available satellite data and ground observations will be used to characterize distant-past (pre-urban), recent-past (2001), present (2010), and near future (2020) land cover and land use changes. The main objective of the project is to assess the impacts of these land transformation on past, current and near-future climate and the potential feedbacks from these changes on the atmospheric, hydrologic, biological, and socio-economic properties beyond the immediate metropolitan regions of cities and their near suburbs. The WRF modeling system will be used to explore the nature and the magnitude of the two-way interactions between urban lands and the atmosphere and assess the overall regional dynamic effect of urban expansion on the northeastern US weather and climate

  9. Impact of surface waves in a Regional Climate Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rutgersson, Anna; Sætra, Oyvind; Semedo, Alvaro

    2010-01-01

    A coupled regional atmosphere-wave model system is developed with the purpose of investigating the impact of climate changes on the wave field, as well as feed-back effects of the wave field on the atmospheric parameters. This study focuses on the effects of introducing a two-way atmosphere......-wave coupling on the atmosphere as well as on wave parameters. The model components are the regional climate model RCA, and the third generation wave model WAM. Two different methods are used for the coupling, using the roughness length and only including the effect of growing sea, and using the wave age...... in climate models for a realistic description of processes over sea....

  10. Historical Arctic and Antarctic Surface Observational Data, Version 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This product consists of meteorological data from 105 Arctic weather stations and 137 Antarctic stations, extracted from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)'s...

  11. Implementing surface parameter aggregation rules in the CCM3 global climate model: regional responses at the land surface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Arain

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available The land-surface parameters required as input to a GCM grid box (typically a few degrees are often set to be those of the dominant vegetation type within the grid box. This paper discusses the use and effect of aggregation rules for specifying effective values of these land cover parameters by taking into account the relative proportion of each land-cover type within each individual grid box. Global land-cover classification data at 1 km resolution were used to define Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS specific aggregate (using aggregation rules land-cover parameters. Comparison of the values of the aggregate parameters and those defined using the single dominant vegetation type (default parameters shows significant differences in some regions, particularly in the semi-desert and in forested regions, e.g. the Sahara Desert and the tropical forest of South America. These two different sets of parameters were used as input data for two 10-year simulations of the NCAR CCM3 model coupled to the BATS land-surface scheme. Statistical analyses comparing the results of the two model runs showed that the resulting effects on the land-surface diagnostics are significant only in specific regions. For example, the sensible heat flux in the Sahara Desert calculated for the aggregate parameter run increased due to the marked increase in the minimum stomatal resistance and the decrease in fractional vegetation cover in the aggregate parameters over the default parameters. The modelled global precipitation and surface air temperature fields were compared to observations: there is a general improvement in the performance of the aggregate parameter run over the default parameter run in areas where the differences between the aggregate and default parameter run are significant. However, most of the difference between the modelled and observed fields is attributable to other model deficiencies. It can be concluded that the use of aggregation rules to derive

  12. Scaling Process Studies and Observations in the Arctic for Improved Climate Predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, C. J.; Graham, D. E.; Hinzman, L. D.; Hubbard, S. S.; Liang, L.; Norby, R. J.; Riley, W. J.; Rogers, A.; Rowland, J. C.; Thornton, P. E.; Torn, M. S.; Wullschleger, S. D.

    2012-12-01

    A fundamental goal of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE-Arctic) project is to improve climate prediction through process understanding and representation of that knowledge in Earth System models. Geomorphological units, including thaw lakes, drained thaw lake basins, and ice-rich polygonal ground provide the organizing framework for our model scaling approach for the coastal plains of the North Slope of Alaska. A comprehensive suite of process studies and observations of hydrology, geomorphology, biogeochemistry, vegetation patterns, and energy exchange and their couplings will be undertaken across nested scales to populate the NGEE hierarchical modeling framework and to achieve a broader goal of optimally informing process representations in a global-scale model. A central focus of this challenge is to advance process understanding and prediction of the evolution of permafrost degradation and its impact on topography and thermal conditions and how these changes control the spatial and temporal availability of water for biogeochemical, ecological, and physical feedbacks to the climate system. Field activities to inform model development is being carried out across a gradient of polygonal ground nested within a drained thaw lake basin age gradient near Barrow, Alaska. Co-analysis of in-situ observations with ground based geophysical and airborne and satellite based remote sensing products from the single polygon to multiple drained lake basin scale is revealing surface-subsurface variability and interactions that influence or control local hydrology, greenhouse gas production, vegetation and the energy balance. We are using a range of data assimilation and fusion techniques to combine spatially extensive data sets developed from multi-scale field data with intensive data being collected from both controlled laboratory experiments using field cores and in-situ thermal, hydrologic, biogeochemical and ecologic observations to improve process understanding

  13. Implementing earth observation and advanced satellite based atmospheric sounders for water resource and climate modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boegh, E.; Dellwik, Ebba; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2010-01-01

    for effective land surface representation in water resource modeling” (2009- 2012). The purpose of the new research project is to develop remote sensing based model tools capable of quantifying the relative effects of site-specific land use change and climate variability at different spatial scales...

  14. Simultaneous inversion of multiple land surface parameters from MODIS optical-thermal observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Han; Liang, Shunlin; Xiao, Zhiqiang; Shi, Hanyu

    2017-06-01

    Land surface parameters from remote sensing observations are critical in monitoring and modeling of global climate change and biogeochemical cycles. Current methods for estimating land surface variables usually focus on individual parameters separately even from the same satellite observations, resulting in inconsistent products. Moreover, no efforts have been made to generate global products from integrated observations from the optical to Thermal InfraRed (TIR) spectrum. Particularly, Middle InfraRed (MIR) observations have received little attention due to the complexity of the radiometric signal, which contains both reflected and emitted radiation. In this paper, we propose a unified algorithm for simultaneously retrieving six land surface parameters - Leaf Area Index (LAI), Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR), land surface albedo, Land Surface Emissivity (LSE), Land Surface Temperature (LST), and Upwelling Longwave radiation (LWUP) by exploiting MODIS visible-to-TIR observations. We incorporate a unified physical radiative transfer model into a data assimilation framework. The MODIS visible-to-TIR time series datasets include the daily surface reflectance product and MIR-to-TIR surface radiance, which are atmospherically corrected from the MODIS data using the Moderate Resolution Transmittance program (MODTRAN, ver. 5.0). LAI was first estimated using a data assimilation method that combines MODIS daily reflectance data and a LAI phenology model, and then the LAI was input to the unified radiative transfer model to simulate spectral surface reflectance and surface emissivity for calculating surface broadband albedo and emissivity, and FAPAR. LST was estimated from the MIR-TIR surface radiance data and the simulated emissivity, using an iterative optimization procedure. Lastly, LWUP was estimated using the LST and surface emissivity. The retrieved six parameters were extensively validated across six representative sites with

  15. Aerosol-Driven Surface Solar Dimming Over Asia: Insights from a Model-Observation Intercomparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persad, G.; Ming, Y.; Ramaswamy, V.

    2012-12-01

    Sun photometer and satellite data have indicated a reduction in surface solar radiation (SSR) over India and China during the second half of the 20th century that is at least partly due to anthropogenic aerosols. Recent integrated observational studies of aerosol properties also suggest that this SSR reduction may have a strong contribution from atmospheric absorption by carbonaceous aerosols over Asia. The reduction in SSR and associated redistribution of energy between the surface and atmosphere may have significant implications for regional hydrological systems like the summertime monsoon. Previous generations of general circulation models (GCMs), however, have been largely unsuccessful at recreating aerosol-driven trends in SSR, hindering theoretical investigation of causes and effects of these trends in regional climate. We analyze the behavior of SSR over Asia in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's AM3 Atmospheric General Circulation Model—the updated aerosol treatment of which contains internal mixing of aerosols and interactive dry and wet deposition—in the context of new satellite and ground-based observational estimates of aerosol-driven SSR reduction. We find that AM3 is more successful than the previous generation of GCMs at recreating the observed SSR trend over South and East Asia and also suggests that as much as half of the clear-sky trend may be attributable to increases in atmospheric absorption in both regions. We will discuss the SSR and atmospheric absorption trends over China and India, as depicted in both observations and AM3, as well the particular aerosol processes responsible for the model's recreation of the trends and their implications for regional climate.

  16. Wintertime land surface characteristics in climatic simulations over ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    eastward moving low-pressure synoptic weather systems, called Western Disturbances (WDs). (Pisharoty and Desai .... Land surface processes are controlled by surface roughness and albedo. Different land surfaces will have different roughness length and albedo. Table 1 illustrates vegetation types and their correspond-.

  17. Observations of surface momentum exchange over the marginal ice zone and recommendations for its parametrisation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. D. Elvidge

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Comprehensive aircraft observations are used to characterise surface roughness over the Arctic marginal ice zone (MIZ and consequently make recommendations for the parametrisation of surface momentum exchange in the MIZ. These observations were gathered in the Barents Sea and Fram Strait from two aircraft as part of the Aerosol–Cloud Coupling And Climate Interactions in the Arctic (ACCACIA project. They represent a doubling of the total number of such aircraft observations currently available over the Arctic MIZ. The eddy covariance method is used to derive estimates of the 10 m neutral drag coefficient (CDN10 from turbulent wind velocity measurements, and a novel method using albedo and surface temperature is employed to derive ice fraction. Peak surface roughness is found at ice fractions in the range 0.6 to 0.8 (with a mean interquartile range in CDN10 of 1.25 to 2.85  ×  10−3. CDN10 as a function of ice fraction is found to be well approximated by the negatively skewed distribution provided by a leading parametrisation scheme (Lüpkes et al., 2012 tailored for sea-ice drag over the MIZ in which the two constituent components of drag – skin and form drag – are separately quantified. Current parametrisation schemes used in the weather and climate models are compared with our results and the majority are found to be physically unjustified and unrepresentative. The Lüpkes et al. (2012 scheme is recommended in a computationally simple form, with adjusted parameter settings. A good agreement holds for subsets of the data from different locations, despite differences in sea-ice conditions. Ice conditions in the Barents Sea, characterised by small, unconsolidated ice floes, are found to be associated with higher CDN10 values – especially at the higher ice fractions – than those of Fram Strait, where typically larger, smoother floes are observed. Consequently, the important influence of sea-ice morphology and floe size on

  18. Observations of surface momentum exchange over the marginal ice zone and recommendations for its parametrisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elvidge, A. D.; Renfrew, I. A.; Weiss, A. I.; Brooks, I. M.; Lachlan-Cope, T. A.; King, J. C.

    2016-02-01

    Comprehensive aircraft observations are used to characterise surface roughness over the Arctic marginal ice zone (MIZ) and consequently make recommendations for the parametrisation of surface momentum exchange in the MIZ. These observations were gathered in the Barents Sea and Fram Strait from two aircraft as part of the Aerosol-Cloud Coupling And Climate Interactions in the Arctic (ACCACIA) project. They represent a doubling of the total number of such aircraft observations currently available over the Arctic MIZ. The eddy covariance method is used to derive estimates of the 10 m neutral drag coefficient (CDN10) from turbulent wind velocity measurements, and a novel method using albedo and surface temperature is employed to derive ice fraction. Peak surface roughness is found at ice fractions in the range 0.6 to 0.8 (with a mean interquartile range in CDN10 of 1.25 to 2.85 × 10-3). CDN10 as a function of ice fraction is found to be well approximated by the negatively skewed distribution provided by a leading parametrisation scheme (Lüpkes et al., 2012) tailored for sea-ice drag over the MIZ in which the two constituent components of drag - skin and form drag - are separately quantified. Current parametrisation schemes used in the weather and climate models are compared with our results and the majority are found to be physically unjustified and unrepresentative. The Lüpkes et al. (2012) scheme is recommended in a computationally simple form, with adjusted parameter settings. A good agreement holds for subsets of the data from different locations, despite differences in sea-ice conditions. Ice conditions in the Barents Sea, characterised by small, unconsolidated ice floes, are found to be associated with higher CDN10 values - especially at the higher ice fractions - than those of Fram Strait, where typically larger, smoother floes are observed. Consequently, the important influence of sea-ice morphology and floe size on surface roughness is recognised, and

  19. Observations of surface momentum exchange over the marginal-ice-zone and recommendations for its parameterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elvidge, A. D.; Renfrew, I. A.; Weiss, A. I.; Brooks, I. M.; Lachlan-Cope, T. A.; King, J. C.

    2015-10-01

    Comprehensive aircraft observations are used to characterise surface roughness over the Arctic marginal ice zone (MIZ) and consequently make recommendations for the parameterization of surface momentum exchange in the MIZ. These observations were gathered in the Barents Sea and Fram Strait from two aircraft as part of the Aerosol-Cloud Coupling And Climate Interactions in the Arctic (ACCACIA) project. They represent a doubling of the total number of such aircraft observations currently available over the Arctic MIZ. The eddy covariance method is used to derive estimates of the 10 m neutral drag coefficient (CDN10) from turbulent wind velocity measurements, and a novel method using albedo and surface temperature is employed to derive ice fraction. Peak surface roughness is found at ice fractions in the range 0.6 to 0.8 (with a mean interquartile range in CDN10 of 1.25 to 2.85 × 10-3). CDN10 as a function of ice fraction is found to be well approximated by the negatively skewed distribution provided by a leading parameterization scheme (Lüpkes et al., 2012) tailored for sea ice drag over the MIZ in which the two constituent components of drag - skin and form drag - are separately quantified. Current parameterization schemes used in the weather and climate models are compared with our results and the majority are found to be physically unjustified and unrepresentative. The Lüpkes et al. (2012) scheme is recommended in a computationally simple form, with adjusted parameter settings. A good agreement is found to hold for subsets of the data from different locations despite differences in sea ice conditions. Ice conditions in the Barents Sea, characterised by small, unconsolidated ice floes, are found to be associated with higher CDN10 values - especially at the higher ice fractions - than those of Fram Strait, where typically larger, smoother floes are observed. Consequently, the important influence of sea ice morphology and floe size on surface roughness is

  20. Climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under stabilization: uncertainty and observational constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, Chris D.; Cox, Peter M.; Huntingford, Chris

    2006-01-01

    Avoiding 'dangerous climate change' by stabilization of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations at a desired level requires reducing the rate of anthropogenic carbon emissions so that they are balanced by uptake of carbon by the natural terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles. Previous calculations of profiles of emissions which lead to stabilized CO 2 levels have assumed no impact of climate change on this natural carbon uptake. However, future climate change effects on the land carbon cycle are predicted to reduce its ability to act as a sink for anthropogenic carbon emissions and so quantification of this feedback is required to determine future permissible emissions. Here, we assess the impact of the climate-carbon cycle feedback and attempt to quantify its uncertainty due to both within-model parameter uncertainty and between-model structural uncertainty. We assess the use of observational constraints to reduce uncertainty in the future permissible emissions for climate stabilization and find that all realistic carbon cycle feedbacks consistent with the observational record give permissible emissions significantly less than previously assumed. However, the observational record proves to be insufficient to tightly constrain carbon cycle processes or future feedback strength with implications for climate-carbon cycle model evaluation

  1. Unravelling Diurnal Asymmetry of Surface Temperature in Different Climate Zones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinnarasi, R; Dhanya, C T; Chakravorty, Aniket; AghaKouchak, Amir

    2017-08-04

    Understanding the evolution of Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR), which has contradicting global and regional trends, is crucial because it influences environmental and human health. Here, we analyse the regional evolution of DTR trend over different climatic zones in India using a non-stationary approach known as the Multidimensional Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (MEEMD) method, to explore the generalized influence of regional climate on DTR, if any. We report a 0.36 °C increase in overall mean of DTR till 1980, however, the rate has declined since then. Further, arid deserts and warm-temperate grasslands exhibit negative DTR trends, while the west coast and sub-tropical forest in the north-east show positive trends. This transition predominantly begins with a 0.5 °C increase from the west coast and spreads with an increase of 0.25 °C per decade. These changes are more pronounced during winter and post-monsoon, especially in the arid desert and warm-temperate grasslands, the DTR decreased up to 2 °C, where the rate of increase in minimum temperature is higher than the maximum temperature. We conclude that both maximum and minimum temperature increase in response to the global climate change, however, their rates of increase are highly local and depend on the underlying climatic zone.

  2. An observational and modeling study of the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konduru, R.; Singh, V.; Routray, A.

    2017-12-01

    A special report on the climate extremes by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) elucidates that the sole cause of disasters is due to the exposure and vulnerability of the human and natural system to the climate extremes. The cause of such a climate extreme could be anthropogenic or non-anthropogenic. Therefore, it is challenging to discern the critical factor of influence for a particular climate extreme. Such kind of perceptive study with reasonable confidence on climate extreme events is possible only if there exist any past case studies. A similar rarest climate extreme problem encountered in the case of Houston floods and extreme rainfall over Florida in August 2017. A continuum of hurricanes like Harvey and Irma targeted the Florida region and caused catastrophe. Due to the rarity of August 2017 Florida climate extreme event, it requires the in-depth study on this case. To understand the multi-faceted nature of the event, a study on the development of the Harvey hurricane and its progression and dynamics is significant. Current article focus on the observational and modeling study on the Harvey hurricane. A global model named as NCUM (The global UK Met office Unified Model (UM) operational at National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, India, was utilized to simulate the Harvey hurricane. The simulated rainfall and wind fields were compared with the observational datasets like Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rainfall datasets and Era-Interim wind fields. The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) automated tracking system was utilized to track the Harvey hurricane, and the tracks were analyzed statistically for different forecasts concerning the Harvey hurricane track of Joint Typhon Warning Centre. Further, the current study will be continued to investigate the atmospheric processes involved in the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

  3. Cluster observations of surface waves on the dawn flank magnetopause

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. J. Owen

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available On 14 June 2001 the four Cluster spacecraft recorded multiple encounters of the dawn-side flank magnetopause. The characteristics of the observed electron populations varied between a cold, dense magnetosheath population and warmer, more rarified boundary layer population on a quasi-periodic basis. The demarcation between these two populations can be readily identified by gradients in the scalar temperature of the electrons. An analysis of the differences in the observed timings of the boundary at each spacecraft indicates that these magnetopause crossings are consistent with a surface wave moving across the flank magnetopause. When compared to the orientation of the magnetopause expected from models, we find that the leading edges of these waves are approximately 45° steeper than the trailing edges, consistent with the Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH driving mechanism. A stability analysis of this interval suggests that the magnetopause is marginally stable to this mechanism during this event. Periods in which the analysis predicts that the magnetopause is unstable correspond to observations of greater wave steepening. Analysis of the pulses suggests that the waves have an average wavelength of approximately 3.4 RE and move at an average speed of ~65km s-1 in an anti-sunward and northward direction, despite the spacecraft location somewhat south of the GSE Z=0 plane. This wave propagation direction lies close to perpendicular to the average magnetic field direction in the external magnetosheath, suggesting that these waves may preferentially propagate in the direction that requires no bending of these external field lines

    Key words. Magnetospheric physics (magnetospheric configuration and dynamics; MHD waves and unstabilities; solar wind-magnetosphere interactions

  4. Impacts of uncertainties in European gridded precipitation observations on regional climate analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prein, Andreas F; Gobiet, Andreas

    2017-01-01

    Gridded precipitation data sets are frequently used to evaluate climate models or to remove model output biases. Although precipitation data are error prone due to the high spatio-temporal variability of precipitation and due to considerable measurement errors, relatively few attempts have been made to account for observational uncertainty in model evaluation or in bias correction studies. In this study, we compare three types of European daily data sets featuring two Pan-European data sets and a set that combines eight very high-resolution station-based regional data sets. Furthermore, we investigate seven widely used, larger scale global data sets. Our results demonstrate that the differences between these data sets have the same magnitude as precipitation errors found in regional climate models. Therefore, including observational uncertainties is essential for climate studies, climate model evaluation, and statistical post-processing. Following our results, we suggest the following guidelines for regional precipitation assessments. (1) Include multiple observational data sets from different sources (e.g. station, satellite, reanalysis based) to estimate observational uncertainties. (2) Use data sets with high station densities to minimize the effect of precipitation undersampling (may induce about 60% error in data sparse regions). The information content of a gridded data set is mainly related to its underlying station density and not to its grid spacing. (3) Consider undercatch errors of up to 80% in high latitudes and mountainous regions. (4) Analyses of small-scale features and extremes are especially uncertain in gridded data sets. For higher confidence, use climate-mean and larger scale statistics. In conclusion, neglecting observational uncertainties potentially misguides climate model development and can severely affect the results of climate change impact assessments.

  5. SUNYA Regional Climate Model Simulations of East Asia Summer Monsoon: Effects of Cloud Vertical Structure on the Surface Energy Balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Gong Wei-Chyung Wang

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We used the State University of New York at Albany (SUNYA regional climate model to study the effect of cloud vertical distribution in affecting the surface energy balance of the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM. Simulations were conducted for the summers of 1988 and 1989, during which large contrast in the intra-seasonal cloud radiative forcing (CRF was observed at the top of the atmosphere.

  6. Direct observation of a surface resonance state and surface band inversion control in black phosphorus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehlen, N.; Sanna, A.; Senkovskiy, B. V.; Petaccia, L.; Fedorov, A. V.; Profeta, G.; Grüneis, A.

    2018-01-01

    We report a Cs-doping-induced band inversion and the direct observation of a surface resonance state with an elliptical Fermi surface in black phosphorus (BP) using angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy. By selectively inducing a higher electron concentration (1.7 ×1014cm-2 ) in the topmost layer, the changes in the Coulomb potential are sufficiently large to cause surface band inversion between the parabolic valence band of BP and a parabolic surface state around the Γ point of the BP Brillouin zone. Tight-binding calculations reveal that band gap openings at the crossing points in the two high-symmetry directions of the Brillouin zone require out-of-plane hopping and breaking of the glide mirror symmetry. Ab initio calculations are in very good agreement with the experiment if a stacking fault on the BP surface is taken into account. The demonstrated level of control over the band structure suggests the potential application of few-layer phosphorene in topological field-effect transistors.

  7. Adatom Fe(III on the hematite surface: Observation of a key reactive surface species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosso Kevin M

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available The reactivity of a mineral surface is determined by the variety and population of different types of surface sites (e.g., step, kink, adatom, and defect sites. The concept of "adsorbed nutrient" has been built into crystal growth theories, and many other studies of mineral surface reactivity appeal to ill-defined "active sites." Despite their theoretical importance, there has been little direct experimental or analytical investigation of the structure and properties of such species. Here, we use ex-situ and in-situ scanning tunneling microcopy (STM combined with calculated images based on a resonant tunneling model to show that observed nonperiodic protrusions and depressions on the hematite (001 surface can be explained as Fe in an adsorbed or adatom state occupying sites different from those that result from simple termination of the bulk mineral. The number of such sites varies with sample preparation history, consistent with their removal from the surface in low pH solutions.

  8. Climate change : observations on federal efforts to adapt to a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-03-25

    Based on preliminary observations from GAOs ongoing adaptation work for the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, certain federal, state, local, and international government authorities are beginning to consider and implement...

  9. Climate Change Impacts on Projections of Excess Mortality at 2030 using Spatially-Varying Ozone-Temperature Risk Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Ander; Reich, Brian J.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Spero, Tanya L.; Hubbell, Bryan; Rappold, Ana G.

    2017-01-01

    We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995–2005) and near-future (2025–2035) time period while incorporating a nonlinear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate nonlinear, spatially-varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observed data. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 ppb (moderate level) and 75 ppb (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 ppb and 1.94°F; however, the results varied by region. Increases in ozone due to climate change result in an increase in ozone-mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 ppb increases by 7.7% (1.6%, 14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 ppb increases by 14.2% (1.6%, 28.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels. PMID:27005744

  10. Observational Quantification of Climatic and Human Influences on Vegetation Greening in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenjian Hua

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This study attempts to quantify the relative contributions of vegetation greening in China due to climatic and human influences from multiple observational datasets. Satellite measured vegetation greenness, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, and relevant climate, land cover, and socioeconomic data since 1982 are analyzed using a multiple linear regression (MLR method. A statistically significant positive trend of average growing-season (April–October NDVI is found over more than 34% of the vegetated areas, mainly in North China, while significant decreases in NDVI are only seen in less than 5% of the areas. The relationships between vegetation and climate (temperature, precipitation, and radiation vary by geographical location and vegetation type. We estimate the NDVI changes in association with the non-climatic effects by removing the climatic effects from the original NDVI time series using the MLR analysis. Our results indicate that land use change is the dominant factor driving the long-term changes in vegetation greenness. The significant greening in North China is due to the increase in crops, grasslands, and forests. The socioeconomic datasets provide consistent and supportive results for the non-climatic effects at the provincial level that afforestation and reduced fire events generally have a major contribution. This study provides a basis for quantifying the non-climatic effects due to possible human influences on the vegetation greening in China.

  11. Assessing climate change impacts on runoff from karstic watersheds: NASA/GISS land-surface model improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blake, Reginald Alexander

    The off-line version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) land-surface hydrological model over- predicted run-off from the karstic Rio Cobre watershed in Jamaica. To assess possible climate change impacts on runoff from the watershed, the model's simulation of observed runoff was improved by adding to it a karst component that has pipe flow features. The improved model was tested on two other karstic watersheds (Yangtze - China and Rio Grande - USA) and the results were encouraging. The impacts that possible climate change may have on the three karstic watersheds were then assessed. The assessment indicates that in a doubled carbon dioxide climate, the Rio Cobre and the Rio Grande may experience decreases in runoff, especially in low flow periods. The Yangtze, on the other hand, may not experience decreases in total runoff, but its peak flow which now occurs in July may be attenuated and shifted to September. The results of the study also show that climate feedbacks convolute climate change assessments and that different results can be obtained from the same climate change scenario depending on the choice of the modeling methodology-that is, on whether the models are coupled or uncoupled.

  12. Impact of highway construction on land surface energy balance and local climate derived from LANDSAT satellite data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nedbal, Václav; Brom, Jakub

    2018-03-26

    Extensive construction of highways has a major impact on the landscape and its structure. They can also influence local climate and heat fluxes in the surrounding area. After the removal of vegetation due to highway construction, the amount of solar radiation energy used for plant evapotranspiration (latent heat flux) decreases, bringing about an increase in landscape surface temperature, changing the local climate and increasing surface run-off. In this study, we evaluated the impact of the D8 highway construction (Central Bohemia, Czech Republic) on the distribution of solar radiation energy into the various heat fluxes (latent, sensible and ground heat flux) and related surface functional parameters (surface temperature and surface wetness). The aim was to describe the severity of the impact and the distance from the actual highway in which it can be observed. LANDSAT multispectral satellite images and field meteorological measurements were used to calculate surface functional parameters and heat balance before and during the highway construction. Construction of a four-lane highway can influence the heat balance of the landscape surface as far as 90m in the perpendicular direction from the highway axis, i.e. up to 75m perpendicular from its edge. During a summer day, the decrease in evapotranspired water can reach up to 43.7m 3 per highway kilometre. This means a reduced cooling effect, expressed as the decrease in latent heat flux, by an average of 29.7MWh per day per highway kilometre and its surroundings. The loss of the cooling ability of the land surface by evaporation can lead to a rise in surface temperature by as much as 7°C. Thus, the results indicate the impact of extensive line constructions on the local climate. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Satellite remotely-sensed land surface parameters and their climatic effects for three metropolitan regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, George

    2008-01-01

    By using both high-resolution orthoimagery and medium-resolution Landsat satellite imagery with other geospatial information, several land surface parameters including impervious surfaces and land surface temperatures for three geographically distinct urban areas in the United States – Seattle, Washington, Tampa Bay, Florida, and Las Vegas, Nevada, are obtained. Percent impervious surface is used to quantitatively define the spatial extent and development density of urban land use. Land surface temperatures were retrieved by using a single band algorithm that processes both thermal infrared satellite data and total atmospheric water vapor content. Land surface temperatures were analyzed for different land use and land cover categories in the three regions. The heterogeneity of urban land surface and associated spatial extents were shown to influence surface thermal conditions because of the removal of vegetative cover, the introduction of non-transpiring surfaces, and the reduction in evaporation over urban impervious surfaces. Fifty years of in situ climate data were integrated to assess regional climatic conditions. The spatial structure of surface heating influenced by landscape characteristics has a profound influence on regional climate conditions, especially through urban heat island effects.

  14. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Daily Maximum Air Temperature Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observational reports of daily air temperature (1200 UTC to 1200 UTC) are made by members of the NWS Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) network; NWS...

  15. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Daily Snow Fall Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observational reports of daily snow fall (1200 UTC to 1200 UTC) are made by members of the NWS Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) network and NWS Cooperative...

  16. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Daily Snow Depth Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observational reports of current snow depth (at 1200 UTC) are made by members of the NWS Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) network and NWS Cooperative...

  17. Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Feng; Vikhliaev, Yury V.; Newman, Paul A.; Pawson, Steven; Perlwitz, Judith; Waugh, Darryn W.; Douglass, Anne R.

    2016-01-01

    Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer's evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the prescribed ozone underestimates Antarctic ozone depletion and lacks zonal asymmetries. In this study we investigate the impact of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on climate change simulations of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. Two sets of 1960-2010 ensemble transient simulations are conducted with the coupled ocean version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with prescribed ozone derived from the same interactive simulations. The model's climatology is evaluated using observations and reanalysis. Comparison of the 1979-2010 climate trends between these two simulations reveals that interactive chemistry has important effects on climate change not only in the Antarctic stratosphere, troposphere, and surface, but also in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice. Interactive chemistry causes stronger Antarctic lower stratosphere cooling and circumpolar westerly acceleration during November-December-January. It enhances stratosphere-troposphere coupling and leads to significantly larger tropospheric and surface westerly changes. The significantly stronger surface wind stress trends cause larger increases of the Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation, leading to year-round stronger ocean warming near the surface and enhanced Antarctic sea ice decrease.

  18. Quantifying Surface Energy Flux Estimation Uncertainty Using Land Surface Temperature Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, A. N.; Hunsaker, D.; Thorp, K.; Bronson, K. F.

    2015-12-01

    Remote sensing with thermal infrared is widely recognized as good way to estimate surface heat fluxes, map crop water use, and detect water-stressed vegetation. When combined with net radiation and soil heat flux data, observations of sensible heat fluxes derived from surface temperatures (LST) are indicative of instantaneous evapotranspiration (ET). There are, however, substantial reasons LST data may not provide the best way to estimate of ET. For example, it is well known that observations and models of LST, air temperature, or estimates of transport resistances may be so inaccurate that physically based model nevertheless yield non-meaningful results. Furthermore, using visible and near infrared remote sensing observations collected at the same time as LST often yield physically plausible results because they are constrained by less dynamic surface conditions such as green fractional cover. Although sensitivity studies exist that help identify likely sources of error and uncertainty, ET studies typically do not provide a way to assess the relative importance of modeling ET with and without LST inputs. To better quantify model benefits and degradations due to LST observational inaccuracies, a Bayesian uncertainty study was undertaken using data collected in remote sensing experiments at Maricopa, Arizona. Visible, near infrared and thermal infrared data were obtained from an airborne platform. The prior probability distribution of ET estimates were modeled using fractional cover, local weather data and a Penman-Monteith mode, while the likelihood of LST data was modeled from a two-source energy balance model. Thus the posterior probabilities of ET represented the value added by using LST data. Results from an ET study over cotton grown in 2014 and 2015 showed significantly reduced ET confidence intervals when LST data were incorporated.

  19. The Surface Radiation Budget and Cloud Climate Interactions as a Part of CERES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cess, Robert D.

    1998-01-01

    Work that has been completed is described in reprints and preprints, and summaries in terms of broad categories are given as follows: (1) The Relationship between Surface and Satellite Shortwave Radiative Fluxes; (2) Cloud-Climate Interactions in Atmospheric General Circulation Models; (3) Absorption of Shortwave radiation by clouds; (4) Clear-sky atmospheres shortwave radiation; and (5) Surface shortwave radiation measurements.

  20. On the assessment of urban land-surface impacts on climate in regional climate model simulations over Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huszar, Peter; Belda, Michal; Halenka, Tomas

    2016-04-01

    When aiming higher resolution in dynamical downscaling, which is common trend in CORDEX activities, the effects of land use and land use changes are playing increasing role. This is especially true for the urban areas, which in high resolution can occupy significant part of a single gridbox, if not being even bigger in case of big cities or megacities. Moreover, the role of cities will increase in future, as the population within the urban areas is growing faster, with the estimate for Europe of about 84% living in cities. For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the impact of cities and in general the urban surfaces on climate, the surface parameterization in regional climate model RegCM4 has been coupled with the Single Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM), which can be used both in dynamic scale within BATS scheme and in a more detailed SUBBATS scale to treat the surface on a higher resolution subgrid. A set of experiments was performed over the period of 2005-2009 over central Europe, either without considering urban surfaces and with the SLUCM treatment. Results show a statistically significant impact of urbanized surfaces on temperature (up to 1.5 K increase in summer), on the boundary layer height (ZPBL, increases up to 50 m). Additionally, the version of land-surface scheme using CLM is tested and effect of the urban environment, which is included in the CLM scheme, will be assessed. Both versions will be compared and validated using EOBS data.

  1. Sensitivity of Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance to surface albedo parameterization: a study with a regional climate model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Angelen, J.H.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/325922470; Lenaerts, J.T.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/314850163; Lhermitte, S.; Fettweis, X.; Kuipers Munneke, P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831891; van den Broeke, M.R.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073765643; van Meijgaard, E.; Smeets, C.J.P.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/191522236

    2012-01-01

    We present a sensitivity study of the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet, as modeled using a regional atmospheric climate model, to various parameter settings in the albedo scheme. The snow albedo scheme uses grain size as a prognostic variable and further depends on cloud cover,

  2. Indigenous observations of climate change in the Lower Yukon River Basin, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman-Mercer, Nicole M.; Schuster, Paul F.; Maracle, Karonhiakt'tie

    2011-01-01

    Natural science climate change studies have led to an overwhelming amount of evidence that the Arctic and Subarctic are among the world's first locations to begin experiencing climate change. Indigenous knowledge of northern regions is a valuable resource to assess the effects of climate change on the people and the landscape. Most studies, however, have focused on coastal Arctic and Subarctic communities with relatively little focus on inland communities. This paper relates the findings from fieldwork conducted in the Lower Yukon River Basin of Alaska in the spring of 2009. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with hunters and elders in the villages of St. Mary's and Pitka's Point, Alaska to document observations of climate change. This study assumes that scientific findings and indigenous knowledge are complementary and seeks to overcome the false dichotomy that these two ways of knowing are in opposition. The observed changes in the climate communicated by the hunters and elders of St. Mary's and Pitka's Point, Alaska are impacting the community in ways ranging from subsistence (shifting flora and fauna patterns), concerns about safety (unpredictable weather patterns and dangerous ice conditions), and a changing resource base (increased reliance on fossil fuels). Here we attempt to address the challenges of integrating these two ways of knowing while relating indigenous observations as described by elders and hunters of the study area to those described by scientific literature.

  3. Potential effects of climate change on surface-water quality in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murdoch, Peter S.; Baron, Jill S.; Miller, T.L.

    2000-01-01

    Data from long-term ecosystem monitoring and research stations in North America and results of simulations made with interpretive models indicate that changes in climate (precipitation and temperature) can have a significant effect on the quality of surface waters. Changes in water quality during storms, snowmelt, and periods of elevated air temperature or drought can cause conditions that exceed thresholds of ecosystem tolerance and, thus, lead to water-quality degradation. If warming and changes in available moisture occur, water-quality changes will likely first occur during episodes of climate-induced stress, and in ecosystems where the factors controlling water quality are sensitive to climate variability. Continued climate stress would increase the frequency with which ecosystem thresholds are exceeded and thus lead to chronic water-quality changes. Management strategies in a warmer climate will therefore be needed that are based on local ecological thresholds rather than annual median condition. Changes in land use alter biological, physical, and chemical processes in watersheds and thus significantly alter the quality of adjacent surface waters; these direct human-caused changes complicate the interpretation of water-quality changes resulting from changes in climate, and can be both mitigated and exacerbated by climate change. A rigorous strategy for integrated, long-term monitoring of the ecological and human factors that control water quality is necessary to differentiate between actual and perceived climate effects, and to track the effectiveness of our environmental policies.

  4. Collision and Break-off : Numerical models and surface observables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bottrill, Andrew; van Hunen, Jeroen; Allen, Mark

    2013-04-01

    The process of continental collision and slab break-off has been explored by many authors using a number of different numerical models and approaches (Andrews and Billen, 2009; Gerya et al., 2004; van Hunen and Allen, 2011). One of the challenges of using numerical models to explore collision and break-off is relating model predictions to real observables from current collision zones. Part of the reason for this is that collision zones by their nature destroy a lot of potentially useful surface evidence of deep dynamics. One observable that offers the possibility for recording mantle dynamics at collision zones is topography. Here we present topography predictions from numerical models and show how these can be related to actual topography changes recoded in the sedimentary record. Both 2D and 3D numerical simulation of the closure of a small oceanic basin are presented (Bottrill et al., 2012; van Hunen and Allen, 2011). Topography is calculated from the normal stress at the surface applied to an elastic beam, to give a more realist prediction of topography by accounting for the expected elasticity of the lithosphere. Predicted model topography showed a number of interesting features on the overriding plate. The first is the formation of a basin post collision at around 300km from the suture. Our models also showed uplift postdating collision between the suture and this basin, caused by subduction of buoyant material. Once break-off has occurred we found that this uplift moved further into the overriding plate due to redistribution of stresses from the subducted plate. With our 3D numerical models we simulate a collision that propagates laterally along a subduction system. These models show that a basin forms, similar to that found in our 2D models, which propagates along the system at the same rate as collision. The apparent link between collision and basin formation leads to the investigation into the stress state in the overriding lithosphere. Preliminary

  5. The effects of climate downscaling technique and observational data set on modeled ecological responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pourmokhtarian, Afshin; Driscoll, Charles T; Campbell, John L; Hayhoe, Katharine; Stoner, Anne M K

    2016-07-01

    Assessments of future climate change impacts on ecosystems typically rely on multiple climate model projections, but often utilize only one downscaling approach trained on one set of observations. Here, we explore the extent to which modeled biogeochemical responses to changing climate are affected by the selection of the climate downscaling method and training observations used at the montane landscape of the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA. We evaluated three downscaling methods: the delta method (or the change factor method), monthly quantile mapping (Bias Correction-Spatial Disaggregation, or BCSD), and daily quantile regression (Asynchronous Regional Regression Model, or ARRM). Additionally, we trained outputs from four atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) (CCSM3, HadCM3, PCM, and GFDL-CM2.1) driven by higher (A1fi) and lower (B1) future emissions scenarios on two sets of observations (1/8º resolution grid vs. individual weather station) to generate the high-resolution climate input for the forest biogeochemical model PnET-BGC (eight ensembles of six runs).The choice of downscaling approach and spatial resolution of the observations used to train the downscaling model impacted modeled soil moisture and streamflow, which in turn affected forest growth, net N mineralization, net soil nitrification, and stream chemistry. All three downscaling methods were highly sensitive to the observations used, resulting in projections that were significantly different between station-based and grid-based observations. The choice of downscaling method also slightly affected the results, however not as much as the choice of observations. Using spatially smoothed gridded observations and/or methods that do not resolve sub-monthly shifts in the distribution of temperature and/or precipitation can produce biased results in model applications run at greater temporal and/or spatial resolutions. These results underscore the importance of

  6. Do climate simulations from models forced by averaged sea surface temperatures represent actual dynamics?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Roebber

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs have offered the possibility of studying climate variability over periods ranging from years to decades. Such models represent and alternative to fully coupled asynchronous atmosphere ocean models whose long term integration remains problematic. Here, the degree of the approximation represented by this approach is investigated from a conceptual point of view by comparing the dynamical properties of a low order coupled atmosphere-ocean model to those of the atmospheric component of the same model when forced with monthly values of SST derived from the fully coupled simulation. The low order modelling approach is undertaken with the expectation that it may reveal general principles concerning the dynamical behaviour of the forced versus coupled systems; it is not expected that such an approach will determine the details of these differences, for which higher order modelling studies will be required. We discover that even though attractor (global averages may be similar, local dynamics and the resultant variability and predictability characteristics differ substantially. These results suggest that conclusions concerning regional climatic variability (in time as well as space drawn from forced modelling approaches may be contaminated by an inherently unquantifiable error. It is therefore recommended that this possibility be carefully investigated using state-of-the-art coupled AGCMs.

  7. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Database and Metrics Data of Global Surface Ozone Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin G. Schultz

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In support of the first Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR a relational database of global surface ozone observations has been developed and populated with hourly measurement data and enhanced metadata. A comprehensive suite of ozone data products including standard statistics, health and vegetation impact metrics, and trend information, are made available through a common data portal and a web interface. These data form the basis of the TOAR analyses focusing on human health, vegetation, and climate relevant ozone issues, which are part of this special feature. Cooperation among many data centers and individual researchers worldwide made it possible to build the world's largest collection of 'in-situ' hourly surface ozone data covering the period from 1970 to 2015. By combining the data from almost 10,000 measurement sites around the world with global metadata information, new analyses of surface ozone have become possible, such as the first globally consistent characterisations of measurement sites as either urban or rural/remote. Exploitation of these global metadata allows for new insights into the global distribution, and seasonal and long-term changes of tropospheric ozone and they enable TOAR to perform the first, globally consistent analysis of present-day ozone concentrations and recent ozone changes with relevance to health, agriculture, and climate. Considerable effort was made to harmonize and synthesize data formats and metadata information from various networks and individual data submissions. Extensive quality control was applied to identify questionable and erroneous data, including changes in apparent instrument offsets or calibrations. Such data were excluded from TOAR data products. Limitations of 'a posteriori' data quality assurance are discussed. As a result of the work presented here, global coverage of surface ozone data for scientific analysis has been significantly extended. Yet, large gaps remain in the surface

  8. Characterization of the Sahelian-Sudan rainfall based on observations and regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salih, Abubakr A. M.; Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Tjernström, Michael; Zhang, Qiong

    2018-04-01

    The African Sahel region is known to be highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. We analyze rainfall in the Sahelian Sudan in terms of distribution of rain-days and amounts, and examine whether regional climate models can capture these rainfall features. Three regional models namely, Regional Model (REMO), Rossby Center Atmospheric Model (RCA) and Regional Climate Model (RegCM4), are evaluated against gridded observations (Climate Research Unit, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, and ERA-interim reanalysis) and rain-gauge data from six arid and semi-arid weather stations across Sahelian Sudan over the period 1989 to 2008. Most of the observed rain-days are characterized by weak (0.1-1.0 mm/day) to moderate (> 1.0-10.0 mm/day) rainfall, with average frequencies of 18.5% and 48.0% of the total annual rain-days, respectively. Although very strong rainfall events (> 30.0 mm/day) occur rarely, they account for a large fraction of the total annual rainfall (28-42% across the stations). The performance of the models varies both spatially and temporally. RegCM4 most closely reproduces the observed annual rainfall cycle, especially for the more arid locations, but all of the three models fail to capture the strong rainfall events and hence underestimate its contribution to the total annual number of rain-days and rainfall amount. However, excessive moderate rainfall compensates this underestimation in the models in an annual average sense. The present study uncovers some of the models' limitations in skillfully reproducing the observed climate over dry regions, will aid model users in recognizing the uncertainties in the model output and will help climate and hydrological modeling communities in improving models.

  9. Improved Analysis of Earth System Models and Observations using Simple Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadiga, Balasubramanya; Urban, Nathan

    2017-04-01

    First-principles-based Earth System Models (ESMs) are central to both improving our understanding of the climate system and developing climate projections. Nevertheless, given the diversity of climate simulated by the various ESMs and the intense computational burden associated with running such models, simple climate models (SCMs) are key to being able to compare ESMs and the climates they simulate in a dynamically meaningful fashion. We present some preliminary work along these lines. In an application of an SCM to compare different ESMs and observations, we demonstrate a deficiency in the commonly-used upwelling-diffusion (UD) energy balance model (EBM). When we consider the vertical distribution of ocean heat uptake, the lack of representation of processes such as deep water formation and subduction in the UD-EBM precludes a reasonable representation of the vertical distribution of heat uptake in that model. We then demonstrate how the problem can be remedied by introducing a parameterization of such processes in the UD-EBM. With further development, it is anticipated that this approach of ESM inter-comparison using simple physics-based models will lead to further insights into aspects of the climate response such as its stability and sensitivity, uncertainty and predictability, and underlying flow structure and topology.

  10. Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charney, Noah D; Babst, Flurin; Poulter, Benjamin; Record, Sydne; Trouet, Valerie M; Frank, David; Enquist, Brian J; Evans, Margaret E K

    2016-09-01

    Predicting long-term trends in forest growth requires accurate characterisation of how the relationship between forest productivity and climatic stress varies across climatic regimes. Using a network of over two million tree-ring observations spanning North America and a space-for-time substitution methodology, we forecast climate impacts on future forest growth. We explored differing scenarios of increased water-use efficiency (WUE) due to CO2 -fertilisation, which we simulated as increased effective precipitation. In our forecasts: (1) climate change negatively impacted forest growth rates in the interior west and positively impacted forest growth along the western, southeastern and northeastern coasts; (2) shifting climate sensitivities offset positive effects of warming on high-latitude forests, leaving no evidence for continued 'boreal greening'; and (3) it took a 72% WUE enhancement to compensate for continentally averaged growth declines under RCP 8.5. Our results highlight the importance of locally adapted forest management strategies to handle regional differences in growth responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  11. Long-term surface pCO2 trends from observations and models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerry F. Tjiputra

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available We estimate regional long-term surface ocean pCO2 growth rates using all available underway and bottled biogeochemistry data collected over the past four decades. These observed regional trends are compared with those simulated by five state-of-the-art Earth system models over the historical period. Oceanic pCO2 growth rates faster than the atmospheric growth rates indicate decreasing atmospheric CO2 uptake, while ocean pCO2 growth rates slower than the atmospheric growth rates indicate increasing atmospheric CO2 uptake. Aside from the western subpolar North Pacific and the subtropical North Atlantic, our analysis indicates that the current observation-based basin-scale trends may be underestimated, indicating that more observations are needed to determine the trends in these regions. Encouragingly, good agreement between the simulated and observed pCO2 trends is found when the simulated fields are subsampled with the observational coverage. In agreement with observations, we see that the simulated pCO2 trends are primarily associated with the increase in surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC associated with atmospheric carbon uptake, and in part by warming of the sea surface. Under the RCP8.5 future scenario, DIC continues to be the dominant driver of pCO2 trends, with little change in the relative contribution of SST. However, the changes in the hydrological cycle play an increasingly important role. For the contemporary (1970–2011 period, the simulated regional pCO2 trends are lower than the atmospheric growth rate over 90% of the ocean. However, by year 2100 more than 40% of the surface ocean area has a higher oceanic pCO2 trend than the atmosphere, implying a reduction in the atmospheric CO2 uptake rate. The fastest pCO2 growth rates are projected for the subpolar North Atlantic, while the high-latitude Southern Ocean and eastern equatorial Pacific have the weakest growth rates, remaining below the atmospheric pCO2 growth rate. Our work

  12. Emotional climate and feeding styles: observational analysis of dinner in low-income families

    Science.gov (United States)

    Indulgent feeding styles have been associated with a higher risk for childhood overweight. The processes through which feeding styles impact child weight are poorly understood. The aim of this study was to observe differences in the emotional climate created by parents (affect, tone of voice, gest...

  13. An Observational and Computational Variable Tagging System for Climate Change Informatics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouchard, L. C.; Lenhardt, W.; Branstetter, M. L.; Runciman, A.; Wang, D.; Kao, S.; King, A. W.; Climate Change Informatics Team

    2010-12-01

    As climate change science uses diverse data from observations and computational results to model and validate earth systems from global to local scale, understand complex processes, and perform integrated assessments, adaptable and accessible information systems that integrate these observations and model results are required. The data processing tasks associated with the simultaneous use of observation and modeling data are time-consuming because scientists are typically familiar with one or the other, but rarely both. Each data domain has its own portal, its own metadata formats, and its own query-building methods for obtaining datasets. The exact definition of variables and observational parameters may require substantial searches for unfamiliar topics. The dearth of formal descriptions such as ontologies compounds the problem and negatively impacts the advancement of science for each aspect of studying climate change. Our Observational and Computational Variable Tagging System aims to address these challenges through facilitating the quick identification of datasets of interest across archives by associating variables with tags or keywords from a controlled vocabulary. The prototype currently offers the ability to search by tags, variable names, and annotations. Names, plain text descriptions, units, dimensions, and a link to each dataset are returned. The information is aggregated from various locations at the source of origin. Keywords from NASA’s Global Change Master Directory provide built-in suggestions for tags. These features ensure accuracy and disambiguation. For the target application, the system tags variables and stores data from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), International Boundary Water Commission, US Geological Survey, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and NASA. Our tagging system allows users to identify variable names and descriptions of observational and computational data from a single Web interface. Our system

  14. Herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations show Philadelphia area plants are responding to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panchen, Zoe A; Primack, Richard B; Anisko, Tomasz; Lyons, Robert E

    2012-04-01

    The global climate is changing rapidly and is expected to continue changing in coming decades. Studying changes in plant flowering times during a historical period of warming temperatures gives us a way to examine the impacts of climate change and allows us to predict further changes in coming decades. The Greater Philadelphia region has a long and rich history of botanical study and documentation, with abundant herbarium specimens, field observations, and botanical photographs from the mid-1800s onward. These extensive records also provide an opportunity to validate methodologies employed by other climate change researchers at a different biogeographical area and with a different group of species. Data for 2539 flowering records from 1840 to 2010 were assessed to examine changes in flowering response over time and in relation to monthly minimum temperatures of 28 Piedmont species native to the Greater Philadelphia region. Regression analysis of the date of flowering with year or with temperature showed that, on average, the Greater Philadelphia species studied are flowering 16 d earlier over the 170-yr period and 2.7 d earlier per 1°C rise in monthly minimum temperature. Of the species studied, woody plants with short flowering duration are the best indicators of a warming climate. For monthly minimum temperatures, temperatures 1 or 2 mo prior to flowering are most significantly correlated with flowering time. Studies combining herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations are an effective method for detecting the effects of climate change on flowering times.

  15. Observed modes of sea surface temperature variability in the South Pacific region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saurral, Ramiro I.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; García-Serrano, Javier

    2018-02-01

    The South Pacific (SP) region exerts large control on the climate of the Southern Hemisphere at many times scales. This paper identifies the main modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the SP which consist of a tropical-driven mode related to a horseshoe structure of positive/negative SST anomalies within midlatitudes and highly correlated to ENSO and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) variability, and another mode mostly confined to extratropical latitudes which is characterized by zonal propagation of SST anomalies within the South Pacific Gyre. Both modes are associated with temperature and rainfall anomalies over the continental regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Besides the leading mode which is related to well known warmer/cooler and drier/moister conditions due to its relationship with ENSO and the IPO, an inspection of the extratropical mode indicates that it is associated with distinct patterns of sea level pressure and surface temperature advection. These relationships are used here as plausible and partial explanations to the observed warming trend observed within the Southern Hemisphere during the last decades.

  16. Observed modes of sea surface temperature variability in the South Pacific region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saurral, Ramiro I.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; García-Serrano, Javier

    2017-04-01

    The South Pacific (SP) region exerts large control on the climate of the Southern Hemisphere at many times scales. This paper identifies the main modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the SP which consist of a tropical-driven mode related to a horseshoe structure of positive/negative SST anomalies within midlatitudes and highly correlated to ENSO and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) variability, and another mode mostly confined to extratropical latitudes which is characterized by zonal propagation of SST anomalies within the South Pacific Gyre. Both modes are associated with temperature and rainfall anomalies over the continental regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Besides the leading mode which is related to well known warmer/cooler and drier/moister conditions due to its relationship with ENSO and the IPO, an inspection of the extratropical mode indicates that it is associated with distinct patterns of sea level pressure and surface temperature advection. These relationships are used here as plausible and partial explanations to the observed warming trend observed within the Southern Hemisphere during the last decades.

  17. Sensitivity of simulated South America climate to the land surface schemes in RegCM4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llopart, Marta; da Rocha, Rosmeri P.; Reboita, Michelle; Cuadra, Santiago

    2017-12-01

    This work evaluates the impact of two land surface parameterizations on the simulated climate and its variability over South America (SA). Two numerical experiments using RegCM4 coupled with the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (RegBATS) and the Community Land Model version 3.5 (RegCLM) land surface schemes are compared. For the period 1979-2008, RegCM4 simulations used 50 km horizontal grid spacing and the ERA-Interim reanalysis as initial and boundary conditions. For the period studied, both simulations represent the main observed spatial patterns of rainfall, air temperature and low level circulation over SA. However, with regard to the precipitation intensity, RegCLM values are closer to the observations than RegBATS (it is wetter in general) over most of SA. RegCLM also produces smaller biases for air temperature. Over the Amazon basin, the amplitudes of the annual cycles of the soil moisture, evapotranspiration and sensible heat flux are higher in RegBATS than in RegCLM. This indicates that RegBATS provides large amounts of water vapor to the atmosphere and has more available energy to increase the boundary layer thickness and cause it to reach the level of free convection (higher sensible heat flux values) resulting in higher precipitation rates and a large wet bias. RegCLM is closer to the observations than RegBATS, presenting smaller wet and warm biases over the Amazon basin. On an interannual scale, the magnitudes of the anomalies of the precipitation and air temperature simulated by RegCLM are closer to the observations. In general, RegBATS simulates higher magnitude for the interannual variability signal.

  18. Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance: evaluating simulations and making projections with regional climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. L. Rae

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Four high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs have been set up for the area of Greenland, with the aim of providing future projections of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB, and its contribution to sea level rise, with greater accuracy than is possible from coarser-resolution general circulation models (GCMs. This is the first time an intercomparison has been carried out of RCM results for Greenland climate and SMB. Output from RCM simulations for the recent past with the four RCMs is evaluated against available observations. The evaluation highlights the importance of using a detailed snow physics scheme, especially regarding the representations of albedo and meltwater refreezing. Simulations with three of the RCMs for the 21st century using SRES scenario A1B from two GCMs produce trends of between −5.5 and −1.1 Gt yr−2 in SMB (equivalent to +0.015 and +0.003 mm sea level equivalent yr−2, with trends of smaller magnitude for scenario E1, in which emissions are mitigated. Results from one of the RCMs whose present-day simulation is most realistic indicate that an annual mean near-surface air temperature increase over Greenland of ~ 2°C would be required for the mass loss to increase such that it exceeds accumulation, thereby causing the SMB to become negative, which has been suggested as a threshold beyond which the ice sheet would eventually be eliminated.

  19. Observing the Agulhas Current with sea surface temperature and altimetry data: challenges and perspectives

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Krug, Marjolaine, J

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available -Red Sea Surface Temperature datasets still suffer from inadequate cloud masking algorithms, particularly in regions of strong temperature gradient. Despite both Sea Surface Height and Sea Surface Temperature observations being severely compromised...

  20. Some observations on the greenhouse effect at the Earth's surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akitt, J. W.

    2018-01-01

    It is shown that the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and water vapour reflect back to the surface, all IR radiation originating at the surface within their respective spectral bands. This reflection occurs in a very thin layer at the surface, not much over 12 cm in thickness. Heat is lost from the surface by heat exchange with the atmosphere and by loss of radiation. About 52% of radiation leaves the surface in two principal window regions but this is not enough to account for the earth's equilibrium temperature. This window radiation seems to disappear quite quickly and is replaced by black body radiation. It is this which eventually contributes to the earth's radiation balance, and has to originate approximately between 40 and 50 km altitude where the temperature is about correct, near 255 K. Doubling the CO2 concentration increases the surface temperature by about 0.9 °C and this need not have any influence higher up in the atmosphere. The surface temperature seems indeed to have no direct influence on the earth's external radiation balance.

  1. Uncertainties in observations and climate projections for the North East India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soraisam, Bidyabati; Karumuri, Ashok; D. S., Pai

    2018-01-01

    The Northeast-India has undergone many changes in climatic-vegetation related issues in the last few decades due to increased human activities. However, lack of observations makes it difficult to ascertain the climate change. The study involves the mean, seasonal cycle, trend and extreme-month analysis for summer-monsoon and winter seasons of observed climate data from Indian Meteorological Department (1° × 1°) and Aphrodite & CRU-reanalysis (both 0.5° × 0.5°), and five regional-climate-model simulations (LMDZ, MPI, GFDL, CNRM and ACCESS) data from AR5/CORDEX-South-Asia (0.5° × 0.5°). Long-term (1970-2005) observed, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and precipitation, and the corresponding CORDEX-South-Asia data for historical (1970-2005) and future-projections of RCP4.5 (2011-2060) have been analyzed for long-term trends. A large spread is found across the models in spatial distributions of various mean maximum/minimum climate statistics, though models capture a similar trend in the corresponding area-averaged seasonal cycles qualitatively. Our observational analysis broadly suggests that there is no significant trend in rainfall. Significant trends are observed in the area-averaged minimum temperature during winter. All the CORDEX-South-Asia simulations for the future project either a decreasing insignificant trend in seasonal precipitation, but increasing trend for both seasonal maximum and minimum temperature over the northeast India. The frequency of extreme monthly maximum and minimum temperature are projected to increase. It is not clear from future projections how the extreme rainfall months during JJAS may change. The results show the uncertainty exists in the CORDEX-South-Asia model projections over the region in spite of the relatively high resolution.

  2. Surface temperatures of the Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic Ocean: Implications for future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowsett, Harry J.; Chandler, Mark A.; Robinson, Marci M.

    2009-01-01

    The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval in the Earth's history to have experienced warming of the magnitude predicted for the second half of the twenty-first century and is, therefore, a possible analogue for future climate conditions. With continents basically in their current positions and atmospheric CO2 similar to early twenty-first century values, the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth remains elusive. Understanding the behaviour of the North Atlantic Ocean during the Mid-Pliocene is integral to evaluating future climate scenarios owing to its role in deep water formation and its sensitivity to climate change. Under the framework of the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) sea surface reconstruction, we synthesize Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic studies by PRISM members and others, describing each region of the North Atlantic in terms of palaeoceanography. We then relate Mid-Pliocene sea surface conditions to expectations of future warming. The results of the data and climate model comparisons suggest that the North Atlantic is more sensitive to climate change than is suggested by climate model simulations, raising the concern that estimates of future climate change are conservative.

  3. Global land surface climate analysis based on the calculation of a modified Bowen ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Bo; Lü, Shihua; Li, Ruiqing; Wang, Xin; Zhao, Lin; Zhao, Cailing; Wang, Danyun; Meng, Xianhong

    2017-05-01

    A modified Bowen ratio (BRm), the sign of which is determined by the direction of the surface sensible heat flux, was used to represent the major divisions in climate across the globe, and the usefulness of this approach was evaluated. Five reanalysis datasets and the results of an offline land surface model were investigated. We divided the global continents into five major BRm zones using the climatological means of the sensible and latent heat fluxes during the period 1980-2010: extremely cold, extremely wet, semi-wet, semi-arid and extremely arid. These zones had BRm ranges of (-∞, 0), (0, 0.5), (0.5, 2), (2, 10) and (10, +∞), respectively. The climatological mean distribution of the Bowen ratio zones corresponded well with the K¨oppen-like climate classification, and it reflected well the seasonal variation for each subdivision of climate classification. The features of climate change over the mean climatological BRm zones were also investigated. In addition to giving a map-like classification of climate, the BRm also reflects temporal variations in different climatic zones based on land surface processes. An investigation of the coverage of the BRm zones showed that the extremely wet and extremely arid regions expanded, whereas a reduction in area was seen for the semi-wet and semi-arid regions in boreal spring during the period 1980-2010. This indicates that the arid regions may have become drier and the wet regions wetter over this period of time.

  4. Wintertime land surface characteristics in climatic simulations over ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Most of the surface characteristics show that major interplay between topography and western disturbances (WDs) takes place along the foothills rather than over the higher peaks of the western Himalayas. ... Present address: Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center (HyARC), Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan.

  5. Fluvial and climate controls on the surface energy balance in a large lowland river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bray, E. N.; Dunne, T.; Dozier, J.

    2013-12-01

    Partitioning of radiant and turbulent energy into evaporation and absorption in a river channel is controlled by climate and streamflow characteristics, and controls the water and energy balance. Atmosphere-surface interactions, coupled with advective processes, drive the heterogeneity of heat storage and exchange over longitudinal profiles whose hydraulic and thermal patterns are crucial for survival of migratory and resident fishes and subject to alteration by humans. Over 100 large-scale flow experiments have been conducted globally to measure abiotic and biotic responses to streamflow, yet none has been utilized to elucidate large-scale physical controls on the surface energy balance of a river. In this paper, we describe a synoptic method by which net solar radiation and turbulent heat fluxes were calculated over the length of a river from time series of hydroclimatological and fluvial conditions measured during a long-term large-scale flow experiment. We examine what are the dominant physical controls to the surface energy balance in a lowland river when surface water stage varies with flow releases in a 240-km reach of the San Joaquin River, California, USA. We developed an energy balance model integrated with advective exchange of heat utilizing spatially-distributed predictions of water surface elevation, inundated surface area, and velocity from an existing hydraulic model that accounts for losses and gains over the length of the river. Absorption of radiation along the river is determined by the wavelength-dependent index of refraction, expressed by the angle of refraction and the optical depth as a function of physical depth and the absorption coefficient. Results show that over the solar spectrum, the absorption coefficient varies by seven orders of magnitude, while flow depth varies by two orders of magnitude over time and distance. Observations and modeling show that (1) discharge is controlled mainly by flow releases, diversions, and exchanges with

  6. Diurnal Variations of Dust from Mars Climate Sounder Observations: Initial Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinboehl, A.

    2017-12-01

    Over the recent years, research on the Martian atmosphere has been focusing increasingly on aerosols. One recent focus has been on detached dust layers (DDL) as they have a significant radiative impact on the atmosphere. The dust distribution in the Martian atmosphere is affected by transport processes like lifting, advection, and sedimentation. However, lifting and sedimentation processes are only poorly understood, and the formation mechanism of DDLs is unclear. Significant variations in the occurrence of DDLs have been observed in comparisons of nearly co-located daytime and nighttime dust extinction measurements by the Mars Climate Sounder (MCS). However, the detailed behavior of changes in the vertical profile of dust over the course of a day has largely been unexplored. To date, aerosol studies by MCS have been limited to observations around 3 am and 3 pm local time due to the sun-synchronous orbit of the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), from which MCS is operated. MCS nominally observes in the direction of the MRO orbit track. Since Sep. 2010 the MCS instrument has been performing frequent sideways scans to obtain measurements at various local times. These special measurements yield nearly global coverage while sampling local times within a few hours of the nominal local time determined by the MRO orbit track. Of particular interest is the behavior at latitudes where cross-track measurements intersect with in-track measurements such that the same airmass is sampled 3 times in intervals of 2 hours at mid-latitudes. Here I present initial analyses of dust vertical profiles retrieved from these MCS observations during the dusty season of the Martian year. Dust opacities tend to be highest within 25 km of the surface and decreasing above. Numerous sets of profiles have been identified in the southern mid-latitudes in which this dust opacity slope is lofted by several kilometers in altitude between 4 pm and 6 pm local time. The behavior is largely restricted to

  7. Surface wave propagation over sinusoidally varying topography: Theory and observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, A. G.; Heathershaw, A. D.

    Linear perturbation theory is used to show that the reflection coefficient of a patch of sinusoidal ripples on an otherwise flat bed is oscillatory in the quotient of the length of the patch and the surface wave length, and strongly dependent upon the quotient of the surface and bed wave numbers. Resonant interaction between the surface waves and the ripples if the surface wavenumber is half the ripple wavenumber is demonstrated. Few ripples, of relatively small steepness, are required to produce a substantial reflected wave. In resonant cases, the partially standing wave on the up-wave side of the ripple patch gives way, in an almost linear manner over the the ripple patch itself, to a progressive (transmitted) wave on the down-wave side. Wave tank data agree well with predictions, and suggest coupling between wave reflection and ripple growth on an erodible bed.

  8. Climate of the Greenland ice sheet using a high-resolution climate model – Part 2: Near-surface climate and energy balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Ettema

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The spatial variability of near-surface variables and surface energy balance components over the Greenland ice sheet are presented, using the output of a regional atmospheric climate model for the period 1958–2008. The model was evaluated in Part 1 of this paper.

    The near-surface temperature over the ice sheet is affected by surface elevation, latitude, longitude, large-scale and small-scale advection, occurrence of summer melt and mesoscale topographical features. The atmospheric boundary layer is characterised by a strong temperature inversion, due to continuous longwave cooling of the surface. In combination with a gently sloping surface the radiative loss maintains a persistent katabatic wind. This radiative heat loss is mainly balanced by turbulent sensible heat transport towards the surface. In summer, the surface is near radiative balance, resulting in lower wind speeds. Absorption of shortwave radiation and a positive subsurface heat flux due to refreezing melt water are heat sources for surface sublimation and melt.

    The strongest temperature deficits (>13 °C are found on the northeastern slopes, where the strongest katabatic winds (>9 m s−1 and lowest relative humidity (<65% occur. Due to strong large scale winds, clear sky (cloud cover <0.5 and a concave surface, a continuous supply of cold dry air is generated, which enhances the katabatic forcing and suppresses subsidence of potentially warmer free atmosphere air.

  9. Wetlands inform how climate extremes influence surface water expansion and contraction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. K. Vanderhoof

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Effective monitoring and prediction of flood and drought events requires an improved understanding of how and why surface water expansion and contraction in response to climate varies across space. This paper sought to (1 quantify how interannual patterns of surface water expansion and contraction vary spatially across the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR and adjacent Northern Prairie (NP in the United States, and (2 explore how landscape characteristics influence the relationship between climate inputs and surface water dynamics. Due to differences in glacial history, the PPR and NP show distinct patterns in regards to drainage development and wetland density, together providing a diversity of conditions to examine surface water dynamics. We used Landsat imagery to characterize variability in surface water extent across 11 Landsat path/rows representing the PPR and NP (images spanned 1985–2015. The PPR not only experienced a 2.6-fold greater surface water extent under median conditions relative to the NP, but also showed a 3.4-fold greater change in surface water extent between drought and deluge conditions. The relationship between surface water extent and accumulated water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration was quantified per watershed and statistically related to variables representing hydrology-related landscape characteristics (e.g., infiltration capacity, surface storage capacity, stream density. To investigate the influence stream connectivity has on the rate at which surface water leaves a given location, we modeled stream-connected and stream-disconnected surface water separately. Stream-connected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with greater total wetland area, but lower total wetland density. Disconnected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with higher wetland density, lower infiltration and less

  10. Wetlands inform how climate extremes influence surface water expansion and contraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderhoof, Melanie K.; Lane, Charles R.; McManus, Michael G.; Alexander, Laurie C.; Christensen, Jay R.

    2018-03-01

    Effective monitoring and prediction of flood and drought events requires an improved understanding of how and why surface water expansion and contraction in response to climate varies across space. This paper sought to (1) quantify how interannual patterns of surface water expansion and contraction vary spatially across the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) and adjacent Northern Prairie (NP) in the United States, and (2) explore how landscape characteristics influence the relationship between climate inputs and surface water dynamics. Due to differences in glacial history, the PPR and NP show distinct patterns in regards to drainage development and wetland density, together providing a diversity of conditions to examine surface water dynamics. We used Landsat imagery to characterize variability in surface water extent across 11 Landsat path/rows representing the PPR and NP (images spanned 1985-2015). The PPR not only experienced a 2.6-fold greater surface water extent under median conditions relative to the NP, but also showed a 3.4-fold greater change in surface water extent between drought and deluge conditions. The relationship between surface water extent and accumulated water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) was quantified per watershed and statistically related to variables representing hydrology-related landscape characteristics (e.g., infiltration capacity, surface storage capacity, stream density). To investigate the influence stream connectivity has on the rate at which surface water leaves a given location, we modeled stream-connected and stream-disconnected surface water separately. Stream-connected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with greater total wetland area, but lower total wetland density. Disconnected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with higher wetland density, lower infiltration and less anthropogenic drainage

  11. Wetlands inform how climate extremes influence surface water expansion and contraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderhoof, Melanie; Lane, Charles R.; McManus, Michael L.; Alexander, Laurie C.; Christensen, Jay R.

    2018-01-01

    Effective monitoring and prediction of flood and drought events requires an improved understanding of how and why surface water expansion and contraction in response to climate varies across space. This paper sought to (1) quantify how interannual patterns of surface water expansion and contraction vary spatially across the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) and adjacent Northern Prairie (NP) in the United States, and (2) explore how landscape characteristics influence the relationship between climate inputs and surface water dynamics. Due to differences in glacial history, the PPR and NP show distinct patterns in regards to drainage development and wetland density, together providing a diversity of conditions to examine surface water dynamics. We used Landsat imagery to characterize variability in surface water extent across 11 Landsat path/rows representing the PPR and NP (images spanned 1985–2015). The PPR not only experienced a 2.6-fold greater surface water extent under median conditions relative to the NP, but also showed a 3.4-fold greater change in surface water extent between drought and deluge conditions. The relationship between surface water extent and accumulated water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) was quantified per watershed and statistically related to variables representing hydrology-related landscape characteristics (e.g., infiltration capacity, surface storage capacity, stream density). To investigate the influence stream connectivity has on the rate at which surface water leaves a given location, we modeled stream-connected and stream-disconnected surface water separately. Stream-connected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with greater total wetland area, but lower total wetland density. Disconnected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with higher wetland density, lower infiltration and less anthropogenic

  12. Meteosat Land Surface Temperature Climate Data Record: Achievable Accuracy and Potential Uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anke Duguay-Tetzlaff

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites’ (EUMETSAT Meteosat satellites provide the unique opportunity to compile a 30+ year land surface temperature (LST climate data record. Since the Meteosat instrument on-board Meteosat 2–7 is equipped with a single thermal channel, single-channel LST retrieval algorithms are used to ensure consistency across Meteosat satellites. The present study compares the performance of two single-channel LST retrieval algorithms: (1 A physical radiative transfer-based mono-window (PMW; and (2 a statistical mono-window model (SMW. The performance of the single-channel algorithms is assessed using a database of synthetic radiances for a wide range of atmospheric profiles and surface variables. The two single-channel algorithms are evaluated against the commonly-used generalized split-window (GSW model. The three algorithms are verified against more than 60,000 LST ground observations with dry to very moist atmospheres (total column water vapor (TCWV 1–56 mm. Except for very moist atmospheres (TCWV > 45 mm, results show that Meteosat single-channel retrievals match those of the GSW algorithm by 0.1–0.5 K. This study also outlines that it is possible to put realistic uncertainties on Meteosat single-channel LSTs, except for very moist atmospheres: simulated theoretical uncertainties are within 0.3–1.0 K of the in situ root mean square differences for TCWV < 45 mm.

  13. Assimilation of Gridded Terrestrial Water Storage Observations from GRACE into a Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girotto, Manuela; De Lannoy, Gabrielle J. M.; Reichle, Rolf H.; Rodell, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    Observations of terrestrial water storage (TWS) from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission have a coarse resolution in time (monthly) and space (roughly 150,000 km(sup 2) at midlatitudes) and vertically integrate all water storage components over land, including soil moisture and groundwater. Data assimilation can be used to horizontally downscale and vertically partition GRACE-TWS observations. This work proposes a variant of existing ensemble-based GRACE-TWS data assimilation schemes. The new algorithm differs in how the analysis increments are computed and applied. Existing schemes correlate the uncertainty in the modeled monthly TWS estimates with errors in the soil moisture profile state variables at a single instant in the month and then apply the increment either at the end of the month or gradually throughout the month. The proposed new scheme first computes increments for each day of the month and then applies the average of those increments at the beginning of the month. The new scheme therefore better reflects submonthly variations in TWS errors. The new and existing schemes are investigated here using gridded GRACE-TWS observations. The assimilation results are validated at the monthly time scale, using in situ measurements of groundwater depth and soil moisture across the U.S. The new assimilation scheme yields improved (although not in a statistically significant sense) skill metrics for groundwater compared to the open-loop (no assimilation) simulations and compared to the existing assimilation schemes. A smaller impact is seen for surface and root-zone soil moisture, which have a shorter memory and receive smaller increments from TWS assimilation than groundwater. These results motivate future efforts to combine GRACE-TWS observations with observations that are more sensitive to surface soil moisture, such as L-band brightness temperature observations from Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) or Soil Moisture Active

  14. Using climate derivatives for assessment of meteorological parameter relationships in RCM and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timuhins, Andrejs; Bethers, Uldis; Bethers, Peteris; Klints, Ilze; Sennikovs, Juris; Frishfelds, Vilnis

    2017-04-01

    In a changing climate it is essential to estimate its impacts on different economic fields. In our study we tried to create a framework for climate change assessment and climate change impact estimation for the territory of Latvia and to create results which are also understandable for non-scientists (stakeholder, media and public). This approach allowed us to more carefully assess the presentation and interpretation of results and their validation, for public viewing. For the presentation of our work a website was created (www.modlab.lv/klimats) containing two types of documents in a unified framework, meteorological parameter analysis of different easily interpretable derivative values. Both of these include analysis of the current situation as well as illustrate the projection for future time periods. Derivate values are calculated using two data sources: the bias corrected regional climate data and meteorological observation data. Derivative documents contain description of derived value, some interesting facts and conclusions. Additionally, all results may be viewed in temporal and spatial graphs and maps, for different time periods as well as different seasons. Bias correction (Sennikovs and Bethers, 2009) for the control period 1961-1990 is applied to RCM data series. Meteorological observation data of the Latvian Environment, Geology, and Meteorology Agency and ENSEMBLES project daily data of 13 RCM runs for the period 1960-2100 are used. All the documents are prepared in python notebooks, which allow for flexible changes. At the moment following derivative values have been published: forest fire risk index, wind energy, phenology (Degree days), road condition (friction, ice conditions), daily minimal meteorological visibility, headache occurrence rate, firs snow date and meteorological parameter analysis: temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, and cloudiness. While creating these products RCM ability to represent the actual climate was

  15. 2-way coupling the hydrological land surface model PROMET with the regional climate model MM5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Zabel

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Most land surface hydrological models (LSHMs consider land surface processes (e.g. soil–plant–atmosphere interactions, lateral water flows, snow and ice in a spatially detailed manner. The atmosphere is considered as exogenous driver, neglecting feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere. On the other hand, regional climate models (RCMs generally simulate land surface processes through coarse descriptions and spatial scales but include land–atmosphere interactions. What is the impact of the differently applied model physics and spatial resolution of LSHMs on the performance of RCMs? What feedback effects are induced by different land surface models? This study analyses the impact of replacing the land surface module (LSM within an RCM with a high resolution LSHM. A 2-way coupling approach was applied using the LSHM PROMET (1 × 1 km2 and the atmospheric part of the RCM MM5 (45 × 45 km2. The scaling interface SCALMET is used for down- and upscaling the linear and non-linear fluxes between the model scales. The change in the atmospheric response by MM5 using the LSHM is analysed, and its quality is compared to observations of temperature and precipitation for a 4 yr period from 1996 to 1999 for the Upper Danube catchment. By substituting the Noah-LSM with PROMET, simulated non-bias-corrected near-surface air temperature improves for annual, monthly and daily courses when compared to measurements from 277 meteorological weather stations within the Upper Danube catchment. The mean annual bias was improved from −0.85 to −0.13 K. In particular, the improved afternoon heating from May to September is caused by increased sensible heat flux and decreased latent heat flux as well as more incoming solar radiation in the fully coupled PROMET/MM5 in comparison to the NOAH/MM5 simulation. Triggered by the LSM replacement, precipitation overall is reduced; however simulated precipitation amounts are still of high uncertainty, both

  16. An overview of studies of observed climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing-Long You

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH hereafter region is characterized by mountainous environments and a variety of regional climatic conditions. High-altitude regions in the HKH have the recent warming amplifications, especially during the global warming hiatus period. The rapid warming cause solid state water (snow, ice, glacier, and permafrost to shrink, leading to increase in meltwater and there have been found more frequent incidences of flash floods, landslides, livestock diseases, and other disasters in the HKH region. Increasing awareness of climate change over the HKH region is reached a consensus. Meanwhile, the HKH region is often referred to as the water towers of Asia as many high-altitude regions store its water in the form of snow and/or glacier, feeding ten major large rivers in Asia. Therefore, the impacts of climate change on water availability in these river basins have huge influences on the livelihood of large number of population, especially in downstream regions. However, the scarcity of basic hydro-meteorological observations particularly in high-altitude regions of HKH limits rigorous analysis of climate change. Most studies used reanalysis data and/or model-reconstructed products to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of hydro-meteorological processes, especially for extreme events. In this study, we review recent climate change in the HKH region, and the scientific challenges and research recommendations are suggested for this high-altitude area.

  17. Impact of Urban Climate Landscape Patterns on Land Surface Temperature in Wuhan, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasha Wang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Facing urban warming, mitigation and adaptation strategies are not efficient enough to tackle excessive urban heat, especially at the local scale. The local climate zone (LCZ classification scheme is employed to examine the diversity and complexity of the climate response within a city. This study suggests that zonal practice could be an efficient way to bridge the knowledge gap between climate research and urban planning. Urban surfaces classified by LCZ are designated as urban climate landscapes, which extends the LCZ concept to urban planning applications. Selecting Wuhan as a case study, we attempt to explore the climatic effect of landscape patterns. Thermal effects are compared across the urban climate landscapes, and the relationships between patch metrics and land surface temperature (LST are quantified. Results indicate that climate landscape layout is a considerable factor impacting local urban climate. For Wuhan, 500 m is an optimal scale for exploring landscape pattern-temperature relationships. Temperature contrast between surrounding landscape patches has a major influence on LST. Generally, fragmental landscape patches contribute to heat release. For most climate landscape types, patch metrics also have a significant effect on thermal response. When three metrics are included as predictive variables, 53.3% of the heating intensity variation can be explained for the Large Lowrise landscape, while 57.4% of the cooling intensity variation can be explained for the Water landscape. Therefore, this article claims that land-based layout optimization strategy at local scale, which conforms to planning manner, should be taken into account in terms of heat management.

  18. Quantifying surface albedo and other direct biogeophysical climate forcings of forestry activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bright, Ryan M; Zhao, Kaiguang; Jackson, Robert B; Cherubini, Francesco

    2015-09-01

    By altering fluxes of heat, momentum, and moisture exchanges between the land surface and atmosphere, forestry and other land-use activities affect climate. Although long recognized scientifically as being important, these so-called biogeophysical forcings are rarely included in climate policies for forestry and other land management projects due to the many challenges associated with their quantification. Here, we review the scientific literature in the fields of atmospheric science and terrestrial ecology in light of three main objectives: (i) to elucidate the challenges associated with quantifying biogeophysical climate forcings connected to land use and land management, with a focus on the forestry sector; (ii) to identify and describe scientific approaches and/or metrics facilitating the quantification and interpretation of direct biogeophysical climate forcings; and (iii) to identify and recommend research priorities that can help overcome the challenges of their attribution to specific land-use activities, bridging the knowledge gap between the climate modeling, forest ecology, and resource management communities. We find that ignoring surface biogeophysics may mislead climate mitigation policies, yet existing metrics are unlikely to be sufficient. Successful metrics ought to (i) include both radiative and nonradiative climate forcings; (ii) reconcile disparities between biogeophysical and biogeochemical forcings, and (iii) acknowledge trade-offs between global and local climate benefits. We call for more coordinated research among terrestrial ecologists, resource managers, and coupled climate modelers to harmonize datasets, refine analytical techniques, and corroborate and validate metrics that are more amenable to analyses at the scale of an individual site or region. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Physical basis for river segmentation from water surface observables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samine Montazem, A.; Garambois, P. A.; Calmant, S.; Moreira, D. M.; Monnier, J.; Biancamaria, S.

    2017-12-01

    With the advent of satellite missions such as SWOT we will have access to high resolution estimates of the elevation, slope and width of the free surface. A segmentation strategy is required in order to sub-sample the data set into reach master points for further hydraulic analyzes and inverse modelling. The question that arises is : what will be the best node repartition strategy that preserves hydraulic properties of river flow? The concept of hydraulic visibility introduced by Garambois et al. (2016) is investigated in order to highlight and characterize the spatio-temporal variations of water surface slope and curvature for different flow regimes and reach geometries. We show that free surface curvature is a powerful proxy for characterizing the hydraulic behavior of a reach since concavity of water surface is driven by variations in channel geometry that impacts the hydraulic properties of the flow. We evaluated the performance of three segmentation strategies by means of a well documented case, that of the Garonne river in France. We conclude that local extrema of free surface curvature appear as the best candidate for locating the segment boundaries for an optimal hydraulic representation of the segmented river. We show that for a given river different segmentation scales are possible: a fine-scale segmentation which is driven by fine-scale hydraulic to large-scale segmentation driven by large-scale geomorphology. The segmentation technique is then applied to high resolution GPS profiles of free surface elevation collected on the Negro river basin, a major contributor of the Amazon river. We propose two segmentations: a low-resolution one that can be used for basin hydrology and a higher resolution one better suited for local hydrodynamic studies.

  20. A study of longwave radiation codes for climate studies: Validation with ARM observations and tests in general circulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellingson, R.G.; Baer, F.

    1993-01-01

    This report summarizes the activities of our group to meet our stated objectives. The report is divided into sections entitled: Radiation Model Testing Activities, General Circulation Model Testing Activities, Science Team Activities, and Publications, Presentations and Meetings. The section on Science Team Activities summarizes our participation with the science team to further advance the observation and modeling programs. Appendix A lists graduate students supported, and post-doctoral appointments during the project. Reports on the activities during each of the first two years are included as Appendix B. Significant progress has been made in: determining the ability of line-by-line radiation models to calculate the downward longwave flux at the surface; determining the uncertainties in calculated the downwelling radiance and flux at the surface associated with the use of different proposed profiling techniques; intercomparing clear-sky radiance and flux observations with calculations from radiation codes from different climate models; determining the uncertainties associated with estimating N* from surface longwave flux observations; and determining the sensitivity of model calculations to different formulations of the effects of finite sized clouds

  1. Interannual Variation of the Surface Temperature of Tropical Forests from Satellite Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huilin Gao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Land surface temperatures (LSTs within tropical forests contribute to climate variations. However, observational data are very limited in such regions. This study used passive microwave remote sensing data from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS, providing observations under all weather conditions, to investigate the LST over the Amazon and Congo rainforests. The SSM/I and SSMIS data were collected from 1996 to 2012. The morning and afternoon observations from passive microwave remote sensing facilitate the investigation of the interannual changes of LST anomalies on a diurnal basis. As a result of the variability of cloud cover and the corresponding reduction of solar radiation, the afternoon LST anomalies tend to vary more than the morning LST anomalies. The dominant spatial and temporal patterns for interseasonal variations of the LST anomalies over the tropical rainforest were analyzed. The impacts of droughts and El Niños on this LST were also investigated. Differences between early morning and late afternoon LST anomalies were identified by the remote sensing product, with the morning LST anomalies controlled by humidity (according to comparisons with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP reanalysis data.

  2. What is the importance of climate model bias when projecting the impacts of climate change on land surface processes?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, M. L.; Rajagopalan, K.; Chung, S. H.; Jiang, X.; Harrison, J. H.; Nergui, T.; Guenther, Alex B.; Miller, C.; Reyes, J.; Tague, C. L.; Choate, J. S.; Salathe, E.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Adam, J. C.

    2014-05-16

    Regional climate change impact (CCI) studies have widely involved downscaling and bias-correcting (BC) Global Climate Model (GCM)-projected climate for driving land surface models. However, BC may cause uncertainties in projecting hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to future climate due to the impaired spatiotemporal covariance of climate variables and a breakdown of physical conservation principles. Here we quantify the impact of BC on simulated climate-driven changes in water variables(evapotranspiration, ET; runoff; snow water equivalent, SWE; and water demand for irrigation), crop yield, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC), nitric oxide (NO) emissions, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) Region. We also quantify the impacts on net primary production (NPP) over a small watershed in the region (HJ Andrews). Simulation results from the coupled ECHAM5/MPI-OM model with A1B emission scenario were firstly dynamically downscaled to 12 km resolutions with WRF model. Then a quantile mapping based statistical downscaling model was used to downscale them into 1/16th degree resolution daily climate data over historical and future periods. Two series climate data were generated according to the option of bias-correction (i.e. with bias-correction (BC) and without bias-correction, NBC). Impact models were then applied to estimate hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to both BC and NBC meteorological datasets. These im20 pact models include a macro-scale hydrologic model (VIC), a coupled cropping system model (VIC-CropSyst), an ecohydrologic model (RHESSys), a biogenic emissions model (MEGAN), and a nutrient export model (Global-NEWS). Results demonstrate that the BC and NBC climate data provide consistent estimates of the climate-driven changes in water fluxes (ET, runoff, and water demand), VOCs (isoprene and monoterpenes) and NO emissions, mean crop yield, and river DIN export over the PNW domain. However

  3. Role of sea surface temperature responses in simulation of the climatic effect of mineral dust aerosol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Yue

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Mineral dust aerosol can be transported over the nearby oceans and influence the energy balance at the sea surface. The role of dust-induced sea surface temperature (SST responses in simulations of the climatic effect of dust is examined by using a general circulation model with online simulation of mineral dust and a coupled mixed-layer ocean model. Both the longwave and shortwave radiative effects of mineral dust aerosol are considered in climate simulations. The SST responses are found to be very influential on simulated dust-induced climate change, especially when climate simulations consider the two-way dust-climate coupling to account for the feedbacks. With prescribed SSTs and dust concentrations, we obtain an increase of 0.02 K in the global and annual mean surface air temperature (SAT in response to dust radiative effects. In contrast, when SSTs are allowed to respond to radiative forcing of dust in the presence of the dust cycle-climate interactions, we obtain a global and annual mean cooling of 0.09 K in SAT by dust. The extra cooling simulated with the SST responses can be attributed to the following two factors: (1 The negative net (shortwave plus longwave radiative forcing of dust at the surface reduces SST, which decreases latent heat fluxes and upward transport of water vapor, resulting in less warming in the atmosphere; (2 The positive feedback between SST responses and dust cycle. The dust-induced reductions in SST lead to reductions in precipitation (or wet deposition of dust and hence increase the global burden of small dust particles. These small particles have strong scattering effects, which enhance the dust cooling at the surface and further reduce SSTs.

  4. Observations of surface radiation and stratospheric processes at Thule Air Base, Greenland, during the IPY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Muscari

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Ground-based measurements of atmospheric parameters have been carried out for more than 20 years at the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC station at Thule Air Base (76.5°N, 68.8°W, on the north-western coast of Greenland. Various instruments dedicated to the study of the lower and middle polar atmosphere are installed at Thule in the framework of a long standing collaboration among Danish, Italian, and US research institutes and universities. This effort aims at monitoring the composition, structure and dynamics of the polar stratosphere, and at studying the Arctic energy budget and the role played by different factors, such as aerosols, water vapour, and surface albedo. During the International Polar Year (IPY, in winter 2008-2009, an intensive measurement campaign was conducted at Thule within the framework of the IPY project “Ozone layer and UV radiation in a changing climate evaluated during IPY” (ORACLE-O3 which sought to improve our understanding of the complex mechanisms that lead to the Arctic stratospheric O3 depletion. The campaign involved a lidar system, measuring aerosol backscatter and depolarization ratios up to 35 km and atmospheric temperature profiles from 25 to 70 km altitude, a ground-based millimeter-wave spectrometer (GBMS used to derive stratospheric mixing ratio profiles of different chemical species involved in the stratospheric ozone depletion cycle, and then ground-based radiometers and a Cimel sunphotometer to study the Arctic radiative budget at the surface. The observations show that the surface radiation budget is mainly regulated by the longwave component throughout most of the year. Clouds have a significant impact contributing to enhance the role of longwave radiation. Besides clouds, water vapour seasonal changes produce the largest modification in the shortwave component at the surface, followed by changes in surface albedo and in aerosol amounts. For what concerns the

  5. Spectroscopic observations of the Moon at the lunar surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yunzhao; Hapke, Bruce

    2018-02-01

    The Moon's reflectance spectrum records many of its important properties. However, prior to Chang'E-3 (CE-3), no spectra had previously been measured on the lunar surface. Here we show the in situ reflectance spectra of the Moon acquired on the lunar surface by the Visible-Near Infrared Spectrometer (VNIS) onboard the CE-3 rover. The VNIS detected thermal radiation from the lunar regolith, though with much shorter wavelength range than typical thermal radiometer. The measured temperatures are higher than expected from theoretical model, indicating low thermal inertia of the lunar soil and the effects of grain facet on soil temperature in submillimeter scale. The in situ spectra also reveal that 1) brightness changes visible from orbit are related to the reduction in maturity due to the removal of the fine and weathered particles by the lander's rocket exhaust, not the smoothing of the surface and 2) the spectra of the uppermost soil detected by remote sensing exhibit substantial differences with that immediately beneath, which has important implications for the remote compositional analysis. The reflectance spectra measured by VNIS not only reveal the thermal, compositional, and space-weathering properties of the Moon but also provide a means for the calibration of optical instruments that view the surface remotely.

  6. Observed linear trend in few surface weather elements over the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    total precipitation amount (TP). Linear regression analysis is used to construct the trend in variables listed in table 1 (Pant and. Rupa Kumar 1997; Bhutiyani et al. 2007, 2009,. Dimri and Das 2011). Linear regression equation of the following form is developed at each station for surface weather variables listed in table 1 to.

  7. High-resolution observations of combustion in heterogeneous surface fuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    E. Louise Loudermilk; Gary L. Achtemeier; Joseph J. O' Brien; J. Kevin Hiers; Benjamin S. Hornsby

    2014-01-01

    In ecosystems with frequent surface fires, fire and fuel heterogeneity at relevant scales have been largely ignored. This could be because complete burns give an impression of homogeneity, or due to the difficulty in capturing fine-scale variation in fuel characteristics and fire behaviour. Fire movement between patches of fuel can have implications for modelling fire...

  8. Satellite remotely-sensed land surface parameters and their climatic effects on urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoran, M.; Savastru, R.; Savastru, D.; Ciobanu, M.; Tautan, M. N.; Miclos, S.

    2009-04-01

    Rapid urbanization transforms the natural landscape to anthropogenic urban land and changes surface biogeophysical characteristics.Urban growth affects the ecology of cities in a number of ways, such as eliminating and fragmenting native habitats, modifying local climate conditions, and generating anthropogenic pollutants.Urbanization has changed many landscapes throughout the world with serious ecological consequences.To understand the ecology of urban systems, it is necessary to quantify the spatial and temporal patterns of urbanization, which often requires dynamic modeling and spatial analysis. Geospatial information provided by satellite remote sensing sensors and biogeophysical field data are very useful for urban landuse-landcover dynamics and impacts analysis. The spatial and spectral variability of urban environments present fundamental challenges to deriving accurate remote sensing information for urban areas. By integrating high-resolution and medium-resolution satellite imagery with other geospatial information, have been investigated several land surface parameters including impervious surfaces and land surface temperatures for Bucharest metropolitan area in Romania. Percent impervious surface was used to quantitatively define the spatial extent and development density of urban land use. Land surface temperatures were retrieved by using a single band algorithm that processes both thermal infrared satellite data and total atmospheric water vapour content. Land surface temperatures have been analysed for different land use and land cover categories both in urban as well as in periurban areas. Because of the removal of vegetative cover and the reduction in evaporation over urban impervious surfaces, the urban heterogeneity of land surface and associated spatial extents influence surface thermal conditions. In situ meteorological data were integrated to assess regional climatic conditions. The spatial structure of surface heating influenced by landscape

  9. Working Group 1: Observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trenberth, K.; Angell, J.; Barry, R.; Bradley, R.; Diaz, H.; Elliott, W.; Etkins, R.; Folland, C.; Jenne, R.; Jones, P.; Karl, T.; Levitus, S.; Oort, A.; Parker, D.; Ropelewski, C.; Vinnikov, K.; Wigley, T.

    1990-01-01

    Topics of discussion include the following: the need for observations; issues in establishing global climate trends; climate variables such as surface air temperature over land, marine temperature, precipitation, circulation, upper air measurements, historical observations, subsurface ocean data, sea level, cryosphere, clouds, solar radiation, and aerosols; future considerations and recommendations which focuses on the establishment of a global benchmark climate monitoring network and data management

  10. Working Group 1: Observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trenberth, K.; Angell, J.; Barry, R.; Bradley, R.; Diaz, H.; Elliott, W.; Etkins, R.; Folland, C.; Jenne, R.; Jones, P.; Karl, T.; Levitus, S.; Oort, A.; Parker, D.; Ropelewski, C.; Vinnikov, K.; Wigley, T.

    1991-01-01

    Topics of discussion include the following: the need for observations; issues in establishing global climate trends; climate variables such as surface air temperature over land, marine temperature, precipitation, circulation, upper air measurements, historical observations, subsurface ocean data, sea level, cryosphere, clouds, solar radiation, and aerosols; future considerations and recommendations which focuses on the establishment of a global benchmark climate monitoring network and data management

  11. Impact of climate change on surface ozone and deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langner, J.; Bergstroem, R.; Foltescu, V. [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrkoeping (Sweden)

    2005-02-01

    The potential impact of regional climate change on the distribution and deposition of air pollutants in Europe has been studied using a regional chemistry/transport/deposition model, MATCH. MATCH was set up using meteorological output from two 10-year climate change experiments made with the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric climate model version 1 (RCA1). RCA1 was forced by boundary conditions from two different global climate models using the IPCC IS92a (business as usual) emission scenario. The global mean warming in both the GCMs was 2.6 K and was reached in the period 2050-2070. Simulations with MATCH indicate substantial potential impact of regional climate change on both deposition of oxidised nitrogen and concentrations of surface ozone. The simulations show a strong increase in surface ozone expressed as AOT40 and mean of daily maximum over southern and central Europe and a decrease in northern Europe. The simulated changes in April-September AOT40 are significant in relation to inter-annual variability over extended areas. Changes in deposition of oxidised nitrogen are much smaller and also less coherent due to the strong inter-annual variability in precipitation in the RCA1 simulations and differences in the regional climate change simulated with RCA1 in the two regional scenarios. Changes in simulated annual deposition are significant in relation to inter-annual variability only over small areas. This indicates that longer simulation periods are necessary to establish changes in deposition. (author)

  12. Impact of climate change on surface ozone and deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langner, Joakim; Bergström, Robert; Foltescu, Valentin

    The potential impact of regional climate change on the distribution and deposition of air pollutants in Europe has been studied using a regional chemistry/transport/deposition model, MATCH. MATCH was set up using meteorological output from two 10-year climate change experiments made with the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric climate model version 1 (RCA1). RCA1 was forced by boundary conditions from two different global climate models using the IPCC IS92a (business as usual) emission scenario. The global mean warming in both the GCMs was 2.6 K and was reached in the period 2050-2070. Simulations with MATCH indicate substantial potential impact of regional climate change on both deposition of oxidised nitrogen and concentrations of surface ozone. The simulations show a strong increase in surface ozone expressed as AOT40 and mean of daily maximum over southern and central Europe and a decrease in northern Europe. The simulated changes in April-September AOT40 are significant in relation to inter-annual variability over extended areas. Changes in deposition of oxidised nitrogen are much smaller and also less coherent due to the strong inter-annual variability in precipitation in the RCA1 simulations and differences in the regional climate change simulated with RCA1 in the two regional scenarios. Changes in simulated annual deposition are significant in relation to inter-annual variability only over small areas. This indicates that longer simulation periods are necessary to establish changes in deposition.

  13. Surface radiation changes and their impact on climate in Central Europe[Dissertation 17578

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruckstuhl, Ch.

    2008-07-01

    The rapid temperature increase of 0.7 {sup o}C averaged over the Northern Hemisphere and of 1 {sup o}C over mainland Europe since 1980 is considerably larger than expected from anthropogenic greenhouse warming. The present thesis addresses questions like whether this rapid climate change is due to unexpected large greenhouse forcing that includes strong water vapor feedback or whether the temperature rise is strengthened by an increase in shortwave radiation fluxes observed since the mid-1980s. Solar dimming, a decrease of solar radiation measured at the Earth's surface, has been observed during several decades before the 1980s. Since then a reversed trend with increasing solar radiation has been observed. Our investigations show that this solar brightening has apparently added to the temperature rise since the 1980s. The analyses give evidence for a substantial decline in aerosol concentrations over Europe, which has led to a significant increase of solar radiation reaching the ground. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations at six remote locations from the Baltic Sea to the Central Alps show a decrease in AOD by up to 63 percent from 1986 to 2005. Solar radiation, concurrently measured under cloud-free skies and averaged over eight German and twenty-five Swiss radiation stations below 1000 m a.s.l., shows a statistically significant increase of +1.15 [+0.68 to +1.62] W m{sup -2} dec {sup -1} between 1981 and 2005. Hence, the direct aerosol effect is clearly measured. On the other hand, all-sky solar radiation shows a statistically significant increase only due to the extraordinary year 2003, with its strongly reduced cloud amount. Without considering the year 2003, which has only a marginal impact on the temperature trends, the increase in solar radiation due to changes in clouds is +0.78 [-1.26 to +2.82] W m{sup -2} dec {sup -1}. This shortwave cloud forcing is further reduced due to the counterbalancing longwave cloud effect. With respect to climate

  14. Developing a Model to Estimate Freshwater Gross Primary Production Using MODIS Surface Temperature Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saberi, S. J.; Weathers, K. C.; Norouzi, H.; Prakash, S.; Solomon, C.; Boucher, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    Lakes contribute to local and regional climate conditions, cycle nutrients, and are viable indicators of climate change due to their sensitivity to disturbances in their water and airsheds. Utilizing spaceborne remote sensing (RS) techniques has considerable potential in studying lake dynamics because it allows for coherent and consistent spatial and temporal observations as well as estimates of lake functions without in situ measurements. However, in order for RS products to be useful, algorithms that relate in situ measurements to RS data must be developed. Estimates of lake metabolic rates are of particular scientific interest since they are indicative of lakes' roles in carbon cycling and ecological function. Currently, there are few existing algorithms relating remote sensing products to in-lake estimates of metabolic rates and more in-depth studies are still required. Here we use satellite surface temperature observations from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) product (MYD11A2) and published in-lake gross primary production (GPP) estimates for eleven globally distributed lakes during a one-year period to produce a univariate quadratic equation model. The general model was validated using other lakes during an equivalent one-year time period (R2=0.76). The statistical analyses reveal significant positive relationships between MODIS temperature data and the previously modeled in-lake GPP. Lake-specific models for Lake Mendota (USA), Rotorua (New Zealand), and Taihu (China) showed stronger relationships than the general combined model, pointing to local influences such as watershed characteristics on in-lake GPP in some cases. These validation data suggest that the developed algorithm has a potential to predict lake GPP on a global scale.

  15. Polar clouds and radiation in satellite observations, reanalyses, and climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenaerts, JTM; Van Tricht, Kristof; Lhermitte, S.L.M.; L'Ecuyer, T.S.

    2017-01-01

    Clouds play a pivotal role in the surface energy budget of the polar regions. Here we use two largely independent data sets of cloud and surface downwelling radiation observations derived by satellite remote sensing (2007–2010) to evaluate simulated clouds and radiation over both polar ice sheets

  16. Vegetation coupling to global climate: Trajectories of vegetation change and phenology modeling from satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Jeremy Isaac

    Important systematic shifts in ecosystem function are often masked by natural variability. The rich legacy of over two decades of continuous satellite observations provides an important database for distinguishing climatological and anthropogenic ecosystem changes. Examples from semi-arid Sudanian West Africa and New England (USA) illustrate the response of vegetation to climate and land-use. In Burkina Faso, West Africa, pastoral and agricultural practices compete for land area, while degradation may follow intensification. The Nouhao Valley is a natural experiment in which pastoral and agricultural land uses were allocated separate, coherent reserves. Trajectories of annual net primary productivity were derived from 18 years of coarse-grain (AVHRR) satellite data. Trends suggested that pastoral lands had responded rigorously to increasing rainfall after the 1980's droughts. A detailed analysis at Landsat resolution (30m) indicated that the increased vegetative cover was concentrated in the river basins of the pastoral region, implying a riparian wood expansion. In comparison, riparian cover was reduced in agricultural regions. We suggest that broad-scale patterns of increasing semi-arid West African greenness may be indicative of climate variability, whereas local losses may be anthropogenic in nature. The contiguous deciduous forests, ocean proximity, topography, and dense urban developments of New England provide an ideal landscape to examine influences of climate variability and the impact of urban development vegetation response. Spatial and temporal patterns of interannual climate variability were examined via green leaf phenology. Phenology, or seasonal growth and senescence, is driven by deficits of light, temperature, and water. In temperate environments, phenology variability is driven by interannual temperature and precipitation shifts. Average and interannual phenology analyses across southern New England were conducted at resolutions of 30m (Landsat

  17. Retrieving 4-dimensional atmospheric boundary layer structure from surface observations and profiles over a single station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pu, Zhaoxia [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)

    2015-10-06

    Most routine measurements from climate study facilities, such as the Department of Energy’s ARM SGP site, come from individual sites over a long period of time. While single-station data are very useful for many studies, it is challenging to obtain 3-dimensional spatial structures of atmospheric boundary layers that include prominent signatures of deep convection from these data. The principal objective of this project is to create realistic estimates of high-resolution (~ 1km × 1km horizontal grids) atmospheric boundary layer structure and the characteristics of precipitating convection. These characteristics include updraft and downdraft cumulus mass fluxes and cold pool properties over a region the size of a GCM grid column from analyses that assimilate surface mesonet observations of wind, temperature, and water vapor mixing ratio and available profiling data from single or multiple surface stations. The ultimate goal of the project is to enhance our understanding of the properties of mesoscale convective systems and also to improve their representation in analysis and numerical simulations. During the proposed period (09/15/2011–09/14/2014) and the no-cost extension period (09/15/2014–09/14/2015), significant accomplishments have been achieved relating to the stated goals. Efforts have been extended to various research and applications. Results have been published in professional journals and presented in related science team meetings and conferences. These are summarized in the report.

  18. Adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and CO2 in a Mediterranean environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Ferrise, Roberto; Rodríguez, A

    2018-01-01

    Adaptation of crops to climate change has to be addressed locally due to the variability of soil, climate and the specific socio-economic settings influencing farm management decisions. Adaptation of rainfed cropping systems in the Mediterranean is especially challenging due to the projected...... decline in precipitation in the coming decades, which will increase the risk of droughts. Methods that can help explore uncertainties in climate projections and crop modelling, such as impact response surfaces (IRSs) and ensemble modelling, can then be valuable for identifying effective adaptations. Here......, a combination of adaptations for dealing with climate change demonstrated that effective adaptation is possible at Lleida. Combinations based on a cultivar without vernalization requirements showed good and wide adaptation potential. Few combined adaptation options performed well under rainfed conditions...

  19. The Role of Atmospheric Pressure on Surface Thermal Inertia for Early Mars Climate Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mischna, M.; Piqueux, S.

    2017-12-01

    On rocky bodies such as Mars, diurnal surface temperatures are controlled by the surface thermal inertia, which is a measure of the ability of the surface to store heat during the day and re-radiate it at night. Thermal inertia is a compound function of the near-surface regolith thermal conductivity, density and specific heat, with the regolith thermal conductivity being strongly controlled by the atmospheric pressure. For Mars, current best maps of global thermal inertia are derived from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) instrument on the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft using bolometric brightness temperatures of the surface. Thermal inertia is widely used in the atmospheric modeling community to determine surface temperatures and to establish lower boundary conditions for the atmosphere. Infrared radiation emitted from the surface is key in regulating lower atmospheric temperatures and driving overall global circulation. An accurate map of surface thermal inertia is thus required to produce reasonable results of the present-day atmosphere using numerical Mars climate models. Not surprisingly, thermal inertia is also a necessary input into climate models of early Mars, which assume a thicker atmosphere, by as much as one to two orders of magnitude above the present-day 6 mb mean value. Early Mars climate models broadly, but incorrectly, assume the present day thermal inertia surface distribution. Here, we demonstrate that, on early Mars, when pressures were larger than today's, the surface layer thermal inertia was globally higher because of the increased thermal conductivity driven by the higher gas pressure in interstitial pore spaces within the soil. Larger thermal inertia reduces the diurnal range of surface temperature and will affect the size and timing of the modeled seasonal polar ice caps. Additionally, it will globally alter the frequency of when surface temperatures are modeled to exceed the liquid water melting point, and so results may

  20. Comparison of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes over the Tibetan Plateau from reanalysis and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Jin; Yu, Ye; Li, Jiang-lin; Ge, Jun; Liu, Chuan

    2018-02-01

    Surface sensible and latent heat fluxes (SH and LE) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have been under research since 1950s, especially for recent several years, by mainly using observation, reanalysis, and satellite data. However, the spatiotemporal changes are not consistent among different studies. This paper focuses on the spatiotemporal variation of SH and LE over the TP from 1981 to 2013 using reanalysis data sets (ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA) and observations. Results show that the spatiotemporal changes from the three reanalysis data sets are significantly different and the probable causes are discussed. Averaged for the whole TP, both SH and LE from MERRA are obviously higher than the other two reanalysis data sets. ERA-Interim shows a significant downward trend for SH and JRA-55 shows a significant increase of LE during the 33 years with other data sets having no obvious changes. By comparing the heat fluxes and some climate factors from the reanalysis with observations, it is found that the differences of heat fluxes among the three reanalysis data sets are closely related to their differences in meteorological conditions as well as the different parameterizations for surface transfer coefficients. In general, the heat fluxes from the three reanalysis have a better representation in the western TP than that in the eastern TP under inter-annual scale. While in terms of monthly variation, ERA-Interim may have better applicability in the eastern TP with dense vegetation conditions, while SH of JRA-55 and LE of MERRA are probably more representative for the middle and western TP with poor vegetation conditions.

  1. Sensor Observation Service API for Providing Gridded Climate Data to Agricultural Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rassarin Chinnachodteeranun

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available We developed a mechanism for seamlessly providing weather data and long-term historical climate data from a gridded data source through an international standard web API, which was the Sensor Observation Service (SOS defined by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC. The National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (NARO Japan has been providing gridded climate data consisting of nine daily meteorological variables, which are average, minimum, maximum of air temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, solar radiant exposure, downward longwave radiation, precipitation and wind speed for 35 years covering Japan. The gridded data structure is quite useful for spatial analysis, such as developing crop suitability maps and monitoring regional crop development. Individual farmers, however, make decisions using historical climate information and forecasts for an incoming cropping season of their farms. In this regard, climate data at a point-based structure are convenient for application development to support farmers’ decisions. Through the proposed mechanism in this paper, the agricultural applications and analysis can request point-based climate data from a gridded data source through the standard API with no need to deal with the complicated hierarchical data structure of the gridded climate data source. Clients can easily obtain data and metadata by only accessing the service endpoint. The mechanism also provides several web bindings and data encodings for the clients’ convenience. Caching, including the pre-caching mechanism, was developed and evaluated to secure an effective response time. The mechanism enhances the accessibility and usability of the gridded weather data source, as well as SOS API for agricultural applications.

  2. Chemical reaction on solid surface observed through isotope tracer technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Ken-ichi

    1983-01-01

    In order to know the role of atoms and ions on solid surfaces as the partners participating in elementary processes, the literatures related to the isomerization and hydrogen exchanging reaction of olefines, the hydrogenation of olefines, the metathesis reaction and homologation of olefines based on solid catalysts were reviewed. Various olefines, of which the hydrogen atoms were substituted with deuterium at desired positions, were reacted using various solid catalysts such as ZnO, K 2 CO 3 on C, MoS 2 (single crystal and powder) and molybdenum oxide (with various carriers), and the infra-red spectra of adsorbed olefines on catalysts, the isotope composition of reaction products and the production rate of the reaction products were measured. From the results, the bonding mode of reactant with the atoms and ions on solid surfaces, and the mechanism of the elementary process were considered. The author emphasized that the mechanism of the chemical reaction on solid surfaces and the role of active points or catalysts can be made clear to the considerable extent by combining isotopes suitably. (Yoshitake, I.)

  3. Nucleation at the Contact Line Observed on Nanotextured Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostinski, A. B.; Gurganus, C.; Charnawskas, J. C.; Shaw, R. A.

    2015-12-01

    Surface nucleation, and contact nucleation in particular, are important for many physical processes, including pharmaceutical drug synthesis, metallurgy, and heterogeneous ice nucleation. It has been conjectured that roughness plays a role in surface nucleation, the tendency for freezing to begin preferentially at the liquid-gas interface. Using high speed imaging, we sought evidence for freezing at the contact line on catalyst substrates with imposed characteristic length scales (texture). It is found that nano-scale texture causes a shift in the nucleation of ice in super-cooled water to the three-phase contact line, while micro-scale texture does not. The reduction in the Gibbs barrier for nucleation at the droplet triple line suggests that a line tension, inversely proportional to the surface feature length scale, may be the relevant physical mechanism. A survey of line tension values in literature supports this hypothesis. This work suggests that the physical morphology of a particle, and not just its chemical composition, is important for characterizing a nucleation catalyst.

  4. Integrated assessment of climate change impact on surface runoff contamination by pesticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagnon, Patrick; Sheedy, Claudia; Rousseau, Alain N; Bourgeois, Gaétan; Chouinard, Gérald

    2016-07-01

    Pesticide transport by surface runoff depends on climate, agricultural practices, topography, soil characteristics, crop type, and pest phenology. To accurately assess the impact of climate change, these factors must be accounted for in a single framework by integrating their interaction and uncertainty. This article presents the development and application of a framework to assess the impact of climate change on pesticide transport by surface runoff in southern Québec (Canada) for the 1981-2040 period. The crop enemies investigated were: weeds for corn (Zea mays); and for apple orchard (Malus pumila), 3 insect pests (codling moth [Cydia pomonella], plum curculio [Conotrachelus nenuphar], and apple maggot [Rhagoletis pomonella]), 2 diseases (apple scab [Venturia inaequalis], and fire blight [Erwinia amylovora]). A total of 23 climate simulations, 19 sites, and 11 active ingredients were considered. The relationship between climate and phenology was accounted for by bioclimatic models of the Computer Centre for Agricultural Pest Forecasting (CIPRA) software. Exported loads of pesticides were evaluated at the edge-of-field scale using the Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), simulating both hydrology and chemical transport. A stochastic model was developed to account for PRZM parameter uncertainty. Results of this study indicate that for the 2011-2040 period, application dates would be advanced from 3 to 7 days on average with respect to the 1981-2010 period. However, the impact of climate change on maximum daily rainfall during the application window is not statistically significant, mainly due to the high variability of extreme rainfall events. Hence, for the studied sites and crop enemies considered, climate change impact on pesticide transported in surface runoff is not statistically significant throughout the 2011-2040 period. Integr Environ Assess Managem 2016;12:559-571. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2015; Published 2015 SETAC. © Her Majesty the

  5. Selected translated abstracts of Russian-language climate-change publications: I, Surface energy budget

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burtis, M.D. (comp.)

    1992-09-01

    This report presents abstracts (translated into English) of important Russian-language literature concerning the surface energy budget as it relates to climate change. In addition to the bibliographic citations and abstracts translated into English, this report presents the original citations and abstracts in Russian. Author and title indexes are included, to assist the reader in locating abstracts of particular interest.

  6. Selected Translated Abstracts of Russian-Language Climate-Change Publications, I. Surface Energy Budget

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ravina, C.B.

    1992-01-01

    This report presents abstracts (translated into English) of important Russian-language literature concerning the surface energy budget as it relates to climate change. In addition to the bibliographic citations and abstracts translated into English, this report presents the original citations and abstracts in Russian. Author and title indexes are included, to assist the reader in locating abstracts of particular interest.

  7. Higher surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet revealed by high-resolution climate modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ettema, J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831913; van den Broeke, M.R.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073765643; van Meijgaard, E.; van de Berg, W.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831611; Bamber, Jonathan L.; Box, J.E.; Bales, R.C.

    2009-01-01

    High-resolution (∼11 km) regional climate modeling shows total annual precipitation on the Greenland ice sheet for 1958–2007 to be up to 24% and surface mass balance up to 63% higher than previously thought. The largest differences occur in coastal southeast Greenland, where the much higher

  8. Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance: evaluating simulations and making projections with regional climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rae, J.G.L.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.; Edwards, T.L.; Fettweis, X.; Gregory, J.M.; Hewitt, H.T.; Lowe, J.A.; Lucas-Picher, P.; Mottram, R.H.; Payne, A.J.; Ridley, J.K.; Shannon, S.R.; van de Berg, W.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831611; van de Wal, R.S.W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/101899556; van den Broeke, M.R.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073765643

    2012-01-01

    Four high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) have been set up for the area of Greenland, with the aim of providing future projections of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), and its contribution to sea level rise, with greater accuracy than is possible from coarser-resolution

  9. Observing Human-induced Linkages between Urbanization and Earth's Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

    2004-01-01

    Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world s population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world s population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters atmospheric composition; impacts components of the water cycle; and modifies the carbon cycle and ecosystems. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-climate system is incomplete. Better understanding of how the Earth s atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components interact as a coupled system and the influence of the urban environment on this climate system is critical. The goal of the 2003 AGU Union session Human-induced climate variations on urban areas: From observations to modeling was to bring together scientists from interdisciplinary backgrounds to discuss the data, scientific approaches and recent results on observing and modeling components of the urban environment with the intent of sampling our current stand and discussing future direction on this topic. Herein, a summary and discussion of the observations component of the session are presented.

  10. Climate change: overview of data sources, observed and predicted temperature changes, and impacts on public and environmental health

    Science.gov (United States)

    David H. Levinson; Christopher J. Fettig

    2014-01-01

    This chapter addresses the societal and the environmental impacts of climate change related to increasing surface temperatures on air quality and forest health. Increasing temperatures at and near the earth’s surface, due to both a warming climate and urban heat island effects, have been shown to increase ground-level ozone concentrations in cities across the U.S. In...

  11. Coincident Observations of Surface Ozone and NMVOCs over Abu Dhabi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbasi, Naveed; Majeed, Tariq; Iqbal, Mazhar; Tarasick, David; Davies, Jonathan; Riemer, Daniel; Apel, Eric

    2016-07-01

    The vertical profiles of ozone are measured coincidently with non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) at the meteorological site located at the Abu Dhabi international airport (latitude 24.45N; longitude 54.22E) during the years 2012 - 2014. Some of the profiles show elevated surface ozone >95 ppbv during the winter months (December, January and February). The ground-level NMVOCs obtained from the gas chromatography-flame ionization detection/mass spectrometry system also show elevated values of acetylene, ethane, propane, butane, pentane, benzene, and toluene. NMVOCs and ozone abundances in other seasons are much lower than the values in winter season. NMVOCs are emitted from an extensive number of sources in urban environments including fuel production, distribution, and consumption, and serve as precursor of ozone. Transport sources contribute a substantial portion of the NMVOC burden to the urban atmosphere in developed regions. Abu Dhabi is located at the edge of the Arabian Gulf and is highly affected by emissions from petrochemical industries in the neighboring Gulf region. The preliminary results indicate that wintertime enhancement in ozone is associated with large values of NMVOCs at Abu Dhabi. The domestic production of surface ozone is estimated from the combination of oxygen recombination and NMVOCs and compared with the data. It is estimated that about 40-50% of ozone in Abu Dhabi is transported from the neighbouring petrochemical industries. We will present ozone sounding and NMVOCs data and our model estimates of surface ozone, including a discussion on the high levels of the tropospheric ozone responsible for contaminating the air quality in the UAE. This work is supported by National Research Foundation, UAE.

  12. Maturity Matrices for Quality of Model- and Observation-Based Climate Data Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höck, Heinke; Kaiser-Weiss, Andrea; Kaspar, Frank; Stockhause, Martina; Toussaint, Frank; Lautenschlager, Michael

    2015-04-01

    In the field of Software Engineering the Capability Maturity Model is used to evaluate and improve software development processes. The application of a Maturity Matrix is a method to assess the degree of software maturity. This method was adapted to the maturity of Earth System data in scientific archives. The application of such an approach to Climate Data Records was first proposed in the context of satellite-based climate products and applied by NOAA and NASA. The European FP7 project CORE-CLIMAX suggested and tested extensions of the approach in order to allow the applicability to additional climate datasets, e.g. based on in-situ observations as well as model-based reanalysis. Within that project the concept was applied to products of satellite- and in-situ based datasets. Examples are national ground-based data from Germany as an example for typical products of a national meteorological service, the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility Network, the ESA Climate Change Initiative, European Reanalysis activities (ERA-CLIM) and international in situ-based climatologies such as GPCC, ECA&D, BSRN, HadSST. Climate models and their related output have some additional characteristics that need specific consideration in such an approach. Here we use examples from the World Data Centre for Climate (WDCC) to discuss the applicability. The WDCC focuses on climate data products, specifically those resulting from climate simulations. Based on these already existing Maturity Matrix models, WDCC developed a generic Quality Assessment System for Earth System data. A self-assessment is performed using a maturity matrix evaluating the data quality for five maturity levels with respect to the criteria data and metadata consistency, completeness, accessibility and accuracy. The classical goals of a quality assessment system in a data processing workflow are: (1) to encourage data creators to improve quality to reach the next quality level, (2) enable data consumers to decide

  13. Investigating stellar surface rotation using observations of starspots

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korhonen, Heidi Helena

    2011-01-01

    Rapid rotation enhances the dynamo operating in stars, and thus also introduces significantly stronger magnetic activity than is seen in slower rotators. Many young cool stars still have the rapid, primordial rotation rates induced by the interstellar molecular cloud from which they were formed...... information on the rotation of the star. At times even information on the spot rotation at different stellar latitudes can be obtained, similarly to the solar surface differential rotation measurements using magnetic features as tracers. Here, I will review investigations of stellar rotation based...

  14. Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at 2030 using spatially varying ozone-temperature risk surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Ander; Reich, Brian J; Nolte, Christopher G; Spero, Tanya L; Hubbell, Bryan; Rappold, Ana G

    2017-01-01

    We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate non-linear, spatially varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observed data. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. (moderate level) and 75 p.p.b. (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 p.p.b. and 1.94 °F; however, the results varied by region. Increases in ozone because of climate change result in an increase in ozone mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. increases by 7.7% (1.6-14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 p.p.b. increases by 14.2% (1.6 28.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels.

  15. Evaluation of biomass burning aerosols in the HadGEM3 climate model with observations from the SAMBBA field campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. T. Johnson

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available We present observations of biomass burning aerosol from the South American Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA and other measurement campaigns, and use these to evaluate the representation of biomass burning aerosol properties and processes in a state-of-the-art climate model. The evaluation includes detailed comparisons with aircraft and ground data, along with remote sensing observations from MODIS and AERONET. We demonstrate several improvements to aerosol properties following the implementation of the Global Model for Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP-mode modal aerosol scheme in the HadGEM3 climate model. This predicts the particle size distribution, composition, and optical properties, giving increased accuracy in the representation of aerosol properties and physical–chemical processes over the Coupled Large-scale Aerosol Scheme for Simulations in Climate Models (CLASSIC bulk aerosol scheme previously used in HadGEM2. Although both models give similar regional distributions of carbonaceous aerosol mass and aerosol optical depth (AOD, GLOMAP-mode is better able to capture the observed size distribution, single scattering albedo, and Ångström exponent across different tropical biomass burning source regions. Both aerosol schemes overestimate the uptake of water compared to recent observations, CLASSIC more so than GLOMAP-mode, leading to a likely overestimation of aerosol scattering, AOD, and single scattering albedo at high relative humidity. Observed aerosol vertical distributions were well captured when biomass burning aerosol emissions were injected uniformly from the surface to 3 km. Finally, good agreement between observed and modelled AOD was gained only after scaling up GFED3 emissions by a factor of 1.6 for CLASSIC and 2.0 for GLOMAP-mode. We attribute this difference in scaling factor mainly to different assumptions for the water uptake and growth of aerosol mass during ageing via oxidation and condensation of organics. We also note

  16. Estimates of late Cenozoic climate change relevant to Earth surface processes in tectonically active orogens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. G. Mutz

    2018-04-01

    of simulated climate with proxy-based reconstructions for the MH and LGM reveal satisfactory to good performance of the model in reproducing precipitation changes, although in some cases discrepancies between neighbouring proxy observations highlight contradictions between proxy observations themselves. Finally, we document regions where the largest magnitudes of late Cenozoic changes in precipitation and temperature occur and offer the highest potential for future observational studies that quantify the impact of climate change on denudation and weathering rates.

  17. Estimates of late Cenozoic climate change relevant to Earth surface processes in tectonically active orogens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutz, Sebastian G.; Ehlers, Todd A.; Werner, Martin; Lohmann, Gerrit; Stepanek, Christian; Li, Jingmin

    2018-04-01

    LGM reveal satisfactory to good performance of the model in reproducing precipitation changes, although in some cases discrepancies between neighbouring proxy observations highlight contradictions between proxy observations themselves. Finally, we document regions where the largest magnitudes of late Cenozoic changes in precipitation and temperature occur and offer the highest potential for future observational studies that quantify the impact of climate change on denudation and weathering rates.

  18. Climatic and physiographic controls of spatial variability in surface water balance over the contiguous United States using the Budyko relationship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abatzoglou, John T.; Ficklin, Darren L.

    2017-09-01

    The geographic variability in the partitioning of precipitation into surface runoff (Q) and evapotranspiration (ET) is fundamental to understanding regional water availability. The Budyko equation suggests this partitioning is strictly a function of aridity, yet observed deviations from this relationship for individual watersheds impede using the framework to model surface water balance in ungauged catchments and under future climate and land use scenarios. A set of climatic, physiographic, and vegetation metrics were used to model the spatial variability in the partitioning of precipitation for 211 watersheds across the contiguous United States (CONUS) within Budyko's framework through the free parameter ω. A generalized additive model found that four widely available variables, precipitation seasonality, the ratio of soil water holding capacity to precipitation, topographic slope, and the fraction of precipitation falling as snow, explained 81.2% of the variability in ω. The ω model applied to the Budyko equation explained 97% of the spatial variability in long-term Q for an independent set of watersheds. The ω model was also applied to estimate the long-term water balance across the CONUS for both contemporary and mid-21st century conditions. The modeled partitioning of observed precipitation to Q and ET compared favorably across the CONUS with estimates from more sophisticated land-surface modeling efforts. For mid-21st century conditions, the model simulated an increase in the fraction of precipitation used by ET across the CONUS with declines in Q for much of the eastern CONUS and mountainous watersheds across the western United States.

  19. Impact of additional surface observation network on short range ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    has recently deployed a high-density network of. AWS over whole of India ... Weather with Observational Meso-Network and. Atmospheric Modeling .... of data assimilation in cyclic mode. In the cyclic data assimilation, model integrates forward in time and the information content propagates with the model flow. Advection of ...

  20. Characterizing Mediterranean Land Surfaces as Component of the Regional Climate System by Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolle, H.-J.; Koslowsky, D.; Menenti, M.; Nerry, F.; Otterman, Joseph; Starr, D.

    1998-01-01

    Extensive areas in the Mediterranean region are subject to land degradation and desertification. The high variability of the coupling between the surface and the atmosphere affects the regional climate. Relevant surface characteristics, such as spectral reflectance, surface emissivity in the thermal-infrared region, and vegetation indices, serve as "primary" level indicators for the state of the surface. Their spatial, seasonal and interannual variability can be monitored from satellites. Using relationships between these primary data and combining them with prior information about the land surfaces (such as topography, dominant soil type, land use, collateral ground measurements and models), a second layer of information is built up which specifies the land surfaces as a component of the regional climate system. To this category of parameters which are directly involved in the exchange of energy, momentum and mass between the surface and the atmosphere, belong broadband albedo, thermodynamic surface temperature, vegetation types, vegetation cover density, soil top moisture, and soil heat flux. Information about these parameters finally leads to the computation of sensible and latent heat fluxes. The methodology was tested with pilot data sets. Full resolution, properly calibrated and normalized NOAA-AVHRR multi-annual primary data sets are presently compiled for the whole Mediterranean area, to study interannual variability and longer term trends.

  1. Satellite Observed Variability in Antarctic and Arctic Surface Temperatures and Their Correlation to Open Water Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comiso, Josefino C.; Zukor, Dorothy (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Recent studies using meterological station data have indicated that global surface air temperature has been increasing at a rate of 0.05 K/decade. Using the same set of data but for stations in the Antarctic and Arctic regions (>50 N) only, the increases in temperature were 0.08, and 0.22 K/decade, when record lengths of 100 and 50 years, respectively, were used. To gain insights into the increasing rate of warming, satellite infrared and passive microwave observations over the Arctic region during the last 20 years were processed and analyzed. The results show that during this period, the ice extent in the Antarctic has been increasing at the rate of 1.2% per decade while the surface temperature has been decreasing at about 0.08 K per decade. Conversely, in the Northern Hemisphere, the ice extent has been decreasing at a rate of 2.8% per decade, while the surface temperatures have been increasing at the rate of 0.38 K per decade. In the Antarctic, it is surprising that there is a short term trend of cooling during a global period of warming. Very large anomalies in open water areas in the Arctic were observed especially in the western region, that includes the Beaufort Sea, where the observed open water area was about 1x10(exp 6) sq km, about twice the average for the region, during the summer of 1998. In the eastern region, that includes the Laptev Sea, the area of open water was also abnormally large in the summer of 1995. Note that globally, the warmest and second warmest years in this century, were 1998 and 1995, respectively. The data, however, show large spatial variability with the open water area distribution showing a cyclic periodicity of about ten years, which is akin to the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations. This was observed in both western and eastern regions but with the phase of one lagging the other by about two years. This makes it difficult to interpret what the trends really mean. But although the record length of satellite data is still

  2. Tectonics, climate and mountain building in the forearc of southern Peru recorded in the 10Be chronology of low-relief surface abandonment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, S. R.; Farber, D.; Audin, L.; Finkel, R. C.

    2009-12-01

    incision (uplift) rates of ~0.1-0.3mm/yr. These ages, erosion rates, and uplift rates suggest that the hyperarid forearc landscape has been recently modified (surface uplift, climate events), while paradoxically, very little erosion is occurring on these surfaces. The four surface abandonment age clusters we observe correlate with cold wet periods preceding deglaciation on the Altiplano. Thus, we suggest that the recorded chronology of Pleistocene surface abandonment results from the interaction and linkage of surface uplift in the forearc, to specific climatic periods in the high Andes that produce high discharge through the fluvial system.

  3. How well do we characterize the biophysical effects of vegetation cover change? Benchmarking land surface models against satellite observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duveiller, Gregory; Forzieri, Giovanni; Robertson, Eddy; Georgievski, Goran; Li, Wei; Lawrence, Peter; Ciais, Philippe; Pongratz, Julia; Sitch, Stephen; Wiltshire, Andy; Arneth, Almut; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2017-04-01

    Changes in vegetation cover can affect the climate by altering the carbon, water and energy cycles. The main tools to characterize such land-climate interactions for both the past and future are land surface models (LSMs) that can be embedded in larger Earth System models (ESMs). While such models have long been used to characterize the biogeochemical effects of vegetation cover change, their capacity to model biophysical effects accurately across the globe remains unclear due to the complexity of the phenomena. The result of competing biophysical processes on the surface energy balance varies spatially and seasonally, and can lead to warming or cooling depending on the specific vegetation change and on the background climate (e.g. presence of snow or soil moisture). Here we present a global scale benchmarking exercise of four of the most commonly used LSMs (JULES, ORCHIDEE, JSBACH and CLM) against a dedicated dataset of satellite observations. To facilitate the understanding of the causes that lead to discrepancies between simulated and observed data, we focus on pure transitions amongst major plant functional types (PFTs): from different tree types (evergreen broadleaf trees, deciduous broadleaf trees and needleleaf trees) to either grasslands or crops. From the modelling perspective, this entails generating a separate simulation for each PFT in which all 1° by 1° grid cells are uniformly covered with that PFT, and then analysing the differences amongst them in terms of resulting biophysical variables (e.g net radiation, latent and sensible heat). From the satellite perspective, the effect of pure transitions is obtained by unmixing the signal of different 0.05° spatial resolution MODIS products (albedo, latent heat, upwelling longwave radiation) over a local moving window using PFT maps derived from the ESA Climate Change Initiative land cover map. After aggregating to a common spatial support, the observation and model-driven datasets are confronted and

  4. Response of the North Atlantic surface and intermediate ocean structure to climate warming of MIS 11.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandiano, Evgenia S; van der Meer, Marcel T J; Schouten, Stefan; Fahl, Kirsten; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S; Bauch, Henning A

    2017-04-10

    Investigating past interglacial climates not only help to understand how the climate system operates in general, it also forms a vital basis for climate predictions. We reconstructed vertical stratification changes in temperature and salinity in the North Atlantic for a period some 400 ka ago (MIS11), an interglacial time analogue of a future climate. As inferred from a unique set of biogeochemical, geochemical, and faunal data, the internal upper ocean stratification across MIS 11 shows distinct depth-dependent dynamical changes related to vertical as well as lateral shifts in the upper Atlantic meridional circulation system. Importantly, transient cold events are recognized near the end of the long phase of postglacial warming at surface, subsurface, mid, and deeper water layers. These data demonstrate that MIS 11 coolings over the North Atlantic were initially triggered by freshwater input at the surface and expansion of cold polar waters into the Subpolar Gyre. The cooling signal was then transmitted downwards into mid-water depths. Since the cold events occurred after the main deglacial phase we suggest that their cause might be related to continuous melting of the Greenland ice sheet, a mechanism that might also be relevant for the present and upcoming climate.

  5. Prominent Midlatitude Circulation Signature in High Asia's Surface Climate During Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mölg, Thomas; Maussion, Fabien; Collier, Emily; Chiang, John C. H.; Scherer, Dieter

    2017-12-01

    High Asia has experienced strong environmental changes in recent decades, as evident in records of glaciers, lakes, tree rings, and vegetation. The multiscale understanding of the climatic drivers, however, is still incomplete. In particular, few systematic assessments have evaluated to what degree, if at all, the midlatitude westerly circulation modifies local surface climates in the reach of the Indian Summer Monsoon. This paper shows that a southward shift of the upper-tropospheric westerlies contributes significantly to climate variability in the core monsoon season (July-September) by two prominent dipole patterns at the surface: cooling in the west of High Asia contrasts with warming in the east, while moist anomalies in the east and northwest occur with drying along the southwestern margins. Circulation anomalies help to understand the dipoles and coincide with shifts in both the westerly wave train and the South Asian High, which imprint on air mass advection and local energy budgets. The relation of the variabilities to a well-established index of midlatitude climate dynamics allows future research on climate proxies to include a fresh hypothesis for the interpretation of environmental changes.

  6. Soesterberg, Netherlands. Revised Uniform Summary of Surface Weather Observations (RUSSWO)

    Science.gov (United States)

    1978-07-13

    r____ 7__ C NE o4 2.6 2±2 ;d___ ___ 6.1 6.7 ENE 301 6.6 . .~___ ___ . E lei i.7 2.1 *7_ 9,g_ (,.s __ CESE 7 _ 2.2 lei .e____ _ _ 4.2 r,. 8 SE 60 i_ .5... MEC OBSOLETE -4- N, ~ - f* f*i7 NNE- UATA PRUCESSING BRANCH ETAC/USAF SURFACE WINDS 3 AIR wEATHER SERVICE/MAC PERCENTAGE FREQUENCY OF WIND I DIRECTION...73 73 74 8-T 30/ 29 4. 3.9’ 62 62 70 66 23/ 2714.3 46j ~ 46 5-7 -- T 26f 25 2.6 .9, __ 1, _ 27_7_2 4 6 24/ 23 1.6 lei 20~ -20 23 4 2 22/ 211 ___9 7 7

  7. Observational Effects of Magnetism in O Stars: Surface Nitrogen Abundances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, F.; Escolano, C.; Wade, G. A.; Donati, J. F.; Bouret, J. C.

    2011-01-01

    Aims. We investigate the surface nitrogen content of the six magnetic O stars known to date as well as of the early B-type star Tau Sco.. We compare these abundances to predictions of evolutionary models to isolate the effects of magnetic field on the transport of elements in stellar interiors. Methods. We conduct a quantitative spectroscopic analysis of the ample stars with state-of-the-art atmosphere models. We rely on high signal-to-noise ratio, high resolution optical spectra obtained with ESPADONS at CFHT and NARVAL at TBL. Atmosphere models and synthetic spectra are computed with the code CMFGEN. Values of N/H together with their uncertainties are determined and compared to predictions of evolutionary models. Results. We find that the magnetic stars can be divided into two groups: one with stars displaying no N enrichment (one object); and one with stars most likely showing extra N enrichment (5 objects). For one star (Ori C) no robust conclusion can be drawn due to its young age. The star with no N enrichment is the one with the weakest magnetic field, possibly of dynamo origin. It might be a star having experienced strong magnetic braking under the condition of solid body rotation, but its rotational velocity is still relatively large. The five stars with high N content were probably slow rotators on the zero age main sequence, but they have surface N/H typical of normal O stars, indicating that the presence of a (probably fossil) magnetic field leads to extra enrichment. These stars may have a strong differential rotation inducing shear mixing. Our results shOuld be viewed as a basis on which new theoretical simulations can rely to better understand the effect of magnetism on the evolution of massive stars.

  8. Influence of climatic factors and the ground surface on the required noise abatement from power equipment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tupov, V. B.; Taratorin, A. A.

    2013-07-01

    The influence of climatic factors and the ground surface on the required noise abatement from the power equipment is analyzed. It is shown that annual oscillations of temperature and humidity lead to substantial variations in the levels of the sound and the sound pressure from the same source in the design point, while the ground effect surface can in some cases cause an increase in the sound pressure levels in the design point, and in other cases—their decrease. When developing the measures on sound suppression of the power equipment, it is recommended to take into account the influence of climatic factors depending on annual variations in temperature and humidity for this terrain as well as on the category of the ground surface.

  9. SUNYA Regional Climate Model Simulations of East Asia Summer Monsoon: Effects of Cloud Vertical Structure on the Surface Energy Balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Gong and Wei-Chyung Wang

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We used the State University of New York at Albany (SUNYA regional climate model to study the effect of cloud vertical distribution in affecting the surface energy balance of the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM. Simulations were conducted for the summers of 1988 and 1989, during which large contrast in the intra-seasonal cloud radiative forcing (CRF was observed at the top of the atmosphere. The model results indicate that both the high and low clouds are persistent throughout the summer months in both years. Because of large cloud water, low clouds significantly reduce the solar radiation flux reaching the surface, which nevertheless still dominate the surface energy balance, accounting for more than 50% of the surface heating. The low clouds also contribute significantly the downward longwave radiation to the surface with values strongly dependent on the cloud base temperature. The presence of low clouds effectively decreases the temperature and moisture gradients near surface, resulting in a substantial decrease in the sensible and latent heat fluxes from surface, which partially compensate the decrease of the net radiative cooling of the surface. For example, in the two days, May 8 and July 11 of 1988, the total cloud cover of 80% is simulated, but the respective low cloud cover (water was 63% (114 gm-2 and 22% (21 gm-2. As a result, the downward solar radiation is smaller by 161 Wm-2 in May 8. On the other hand, the cloud temperature was _ lower, yielding 56 Wm-2 smaller downward longwave radiation. The near surface temperature and gradient is more than _ smaller (and moisture gradient, leading to 21 and 81 Wm-2 smaller sensible heat and latent heat fluxes. It is also demonstrated that the model is capable to reproduce the intraseasonal variation of shortwave CRF, and catches the relationship between total cloud cover and SW CRF. The model results show the dominance of high cloud on the regional mean longwave CRF and low cloud on the intra

  10. Multi-Annual Climate Predictions for Fisheries: An Assessment of Skill of Sea Surface Temperature Forecasts for Large Marine Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Desiree Tommasi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Decisions made by fishers and fisheries managers are informed by climate and fisheries observations that now often span more than 50 years. Multi-annual climate forecasts could further inform such decisions if they were skillful in predicting future conditions relative to the 50-year scope of past variability. We demonstrate that an existing multi-annual prediction system skillfully forecasts the probability of next year, the next 1–3 years, and the next 1–10 years being warmer or cooler than the 50-year average at the surface in coastal ecosystems. Probabilistic forecasts of upper and lower seas surface temperature (SST terciles over the next 3 or 10 years from the GFDL CM 2.1 10-member ensemble global prediction system showed significant improvements in skill over the use of a 50-year climatology for most Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs in the North Atlantic, the western Pacific, and Indian oceans. Through a comparison of the forecast skill of initialized and uninitialized hindcasts, we demonstrate that this skill is largely due to the predictable signature of radiative forcing changes over the 50-year timescale rather than prediction of evolving modes of climate variability. North Atlantic LMEs stood out as the only coastal regions where initialization significantly contributed to SST prediction skill at the 1 to 10 year scale.

  11. Contrasting the surface ocean distribution of bromoform and methyl iodide; implications for boundary layer physics, chemistry and climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palmer, C J, E-mail: carl.j.palmer@gmail.co [Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, 7701 (South Africa)

    2010-08-15

    Bromoform and methyl iodide are both methane-like hydrocarbons with a halogen atom replacing one or more of the hydrogen atoms. Both of these compounds occur naturally in the environment as a result of their production from seaweed and kelp. They are of interest to climate science as a result of their catalytic destruction of boundary layer ozone (a potent greenhouse gas) and, specifically for methyl iodide, the proposed role in the formation of new cloud condensation nuclei with implications for climate. In this paper, the currently available data on the distribution of bromoform and methyl iodide are analysed and contrasted to show that the concentrations of bromoform and methyl iodide do not correlate, that, in contrast to bromoform, the parameterization of sea surface methyl iodide concentrations demands only the sea surface temperature, and that the pelagic distribution of methyl iodide appears to follow the solar zenith angle. These three observations together suggest that, while the pelagic source of bromoform is mostly biogenic, the source of methyl iodide is photochemical. This has implications for the understanding of planetary boundary layer chemistry and potential organohalogen mediated feedbacks to climate.

  12. Evidences of Wet Climate on Early Mars from Analysis of HRSC Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaumann, Ralf; Tirschj, Daniela; Adeli, Solmaz

    2017-04-01

    Both Geomorphological and mineralogical evidence point to the episodic availability of liquid water on the surface of early Mars. However, the distribution of water was not uniform over space and time. Considerable environmental and climate variations due to latitudinal or elevation effects combined with a diverse surface geology caused distinctively different of local conditions that influenced the planet`s water content. The history of water on Mars has been constantly revised and refined during the past years. Landforms such as widespread valley networks, fluvial deposits and associated assemblages of hydrated clay minerals support the hypothesis that the Martian climate was to some extend warm and wet during the early history of Mars [e.g.,1,2]. At the boundary between the Late Noachian and the Early Hesperian, environmental and climate conditions changed significantly and resulted in a transition towards a colder and dryer climate. The intensity of aqueous activity decreased throughout the Hesperian, including a transition from long-term and repeated precipitation-induced fluvial activity towards reduced, short-term, spatially isolated and groundwater-dominated fluvial erosion [e.g.,3,4,5,6]. At the end of the Hesperian, fluvial erosion has mostly ceased and volcanic, aeolian and glacial processes are interpreted to be dominant on Mars. The Early Amazonian was characterized most likely by a cold and dry climate that was similar to the conditions on recent Mars. However, Mars' climate and aqueous history, in particular the timing of the termination of fluvial activity and the transition from precipitation-induced toward groundwater-dominated erosion as well as the temperature with time, is still subject to debate. Modeling of flow transport processes revealed that the formation of deltas on Mars geologically requires only brief timespans [7] and, based on discharge estimates, the formation of erosional valleys also needs less than a few million years and seems

  13. Reconstruction of cloud-free time series satellite observations of land surface temperature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghafarian Malamiri, H.R.; Menenti, M.; Jia, L.; den Ouden, H.

    2012-01-01

    Time series satellite observations of land surface properties, like Land Surface Temperature (LST), often feature missing data or data with anomalous values due to cloud coverage, malfunction of sensor, atmospheric aerosols, defective cloud masking and retrieval algorithms. Preprocessing procedures

  14. Modeling large-scale human alteration of land surface hydrology and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Yadu N.; Felfelani, Farshid; Shin, Sanghoon; Yamada, Tomohito J.; Satoh, Yusuke

    2017-12-01

    Rapidly expanding human activities have profoundly affected various biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system over a broad range of scales, and freshwater systems are now amongst the most extensively altered ecosystems. In this study, we examine the human-induced changes in land surface water and energy balances and the associated climate impacts using a coupled hydrological-climate model framework which also simulates the impacts of human activities on the water cycle. We present three sets of analyses using the results from two model versions—one with and the other without considering human activities; both versions are run in offline and coupled mode resulting in a series of four experiments in total. First, we examine climate and human-induced changes in regional water balance focusing on the widely debated issue of the desiccation of the Aral Sea in central Asia. Then, we discuss the changes in surface temperature as a result of changes in land surface energy balance due to irrigation over global and regional scales. Finally, we examine the global and regional climate impacts of increased atmospheric water vapor content due to irrigation. Results indicate that the direct anthropogenic alteration of river flow in the Aral Sea basin resulted in the loss of 510 km3 of water during the latter half of the twentieth century which explains about half of the total loss of water from the sea. Results of irrigation-induced changes in surface energy balance suggest a significant surface cooling of up to 3.3 K over 1° grids in highly irrigated areas but a negligible change in land surface temperature when averaged over sufficiently large global regions. Results from the coupled model indicate a substantial change in 2 m air temperature and outgoing longwave radiation due to irrigation, highlighting the non-local (regional and global) implications of irrigation. These results provide important insights on the direct human alteration of land surface

  15. Modeled effects of irrigation on surface climate in the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xuezhen; Xiong, Zhe; Tang, Qiuhong

    2017-08-01

    In Northwest China, water originates from the mountain area and is largely used for irrigation agriculture in the middle reaches. This study investigates the local and remote impact of irrigation on regional climate in the Heihe River Basin, the second largest inland river basin in Northwest China. An irrigation scheme was developed and incorporated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Noah-MP land surface scheme (WRF/Noah-MP). The effects of irrigation is assessed by comparing the model simulations with and without consideration of irrigation (hereafter, IRRG and NATU simulations, respectively) for five growth seasons (May to September) from 2009 to 2013. As consequences of irrigation, daily mean temperature decreased by 1.7°C and humidity increased by 2.3 g kg-1 (corresponding to 38.5%) over irrigated area. The temperature and humidity of IRRG simulation matched well with the observations, whereas NATU simulation overestimated temperature and underestimated humidity over irrigated area. The effects on temperature and humidity are generally small outside the irrigated area. The cooling and wetting effects have opposing impacts on convective precipitation, resulting in a negligible change in localized precipitation over irrigated area. However, irrigation may induce water vapor convergence and enhance precipitation remotely in the southeastern portion of the Heihe River Basin.

  16. Pan-Arctic observations in GRENE Arctic Climate Change Research Project and its successor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamanouchi, Takashi

    2016-04-01

    We started a Japanese initiative - "Arctic Climate Change Research Project" - within the framework of the Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) Program, funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan (MEXT), in 2011. This Project targeted understanding and forecasting "Rapid Change of the Arctic Climate System and its Global Influences." Four strategic research targets are set by the Ministry: 1. Understanding the mechanism of warming amplification in the Arctic; 2. Understanding the Arctic climate system for global climate and future change; 3. Evaluation of the impacts of Arctic change on the weather and climate in Japan, marine ecosystems and fisheries; 4. Projection of sea ice distribution and Arctic sea routes. Through a network of universities and institutions in Japan, this 5-year Project involves more than 300 scientists from 39 institutions and universities. The National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) works as the core institute and The Japan Agency for Marine- Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) joins as the supporting institute. There are 7 bottom up research themes approved: the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, cryosphere, greenhouse gases, marine ecology and fisheries, sea ice and Arctic sea routes and climate modeling, among 22 applications. The Project will realize multi-disciplinal study of the Arctic region and connect to the projection of future Arctic and global climatic change by modeling. The project has been running since the beginning of 2011 and in those 5 years pan-Arctic observations have been carried out in many locations, such as Svalbard, Russian Siberia, Alaska, Canada, Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. In particular, 95 GHz cloud profiling radar in high precision was established at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, and intensive atmospheric observations were carried out in 2014 and 2015. In addition, the Arctic Ocean cruises by R/V "Mirai" (belonging to JAMSTEC) and other icebreakers belonging to other

  17. Summary of Meteorological Observations, Surface (SMOS), Imperial Beach, California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-10-01

    OBSERVATIONS) #!11’ IMPV’!AL B[ACH, CALIFORNIA 7Oct7-12 OCT STA~e " ATUM lM Tune MONTS ALL WEATHER 2CASS OSONS (L.0T..l~nM TAIIW IlmlceAU.IT.N~ MEAN...PSYCHROMETRIC SUMMARY Im f il ,it r, AI r ti. LektF L +NJ I A- 02 rc m ’A e L vrn seon" ItOW"il U aT I TmP6 WE V UM ATUM DIP01 (3) TOTAL TOTAL (F) 0 1

  18. Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi

    2017-04-01

    Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological

  19. Effect of Urbanization on Land-Surface Temperature at an Urban Climate Station in North China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bian, Tao; Ren, Guoyu; Yue, Yanxia

    2017-12-01

    While the land-surface temperature (LST) observed at meteorological stations has significantly increased over the previous few decades, it is still unclear to what extent urbanization has affected these positive trends. Based on the LST data recorded at an urban station in Shijiazhuang in North China, and two rural meteorological stations, the effect of urbanization at the Shijiazhuang station for the period 1965-2012 is examined. We find, (1) a statistically-significant linear trend in annual mean urban-rural LST difference of 0.27°C (10 year)^{-1}, with an urbanization contribution of 100% indicating that the increase in the annual mean LST at the urban station is entirely caused by urbanization. The urbanization effects in spring, summer and autumn on the trends of mean LST are also significant; (2) the urbanization effect is small for time series of the annual mean minimum LST, and statistically marginal for the trend in annual mean maximum LST [0.19°C (10 year)^{-1}]; (3) the urbanization effect on the annual mean diurnal LST range (Δ {LST}) at the urban station is a strongly significant trend of 0.23°C (10 year)^{-1}, with an urbanization contribution of 21%. The urbanization effects on trends in the spring and autumn mean Δ {LST} are also larger and more significant than for the other seasons; (4) the urbanization effects on the long-term LST trends are remarkably different from those on the near-surface air temperature at the same urban station. Nonetheless, the significant warming of the urban boundary layer is expected to affect the urban environment and ecosystems. However, the problem of data representativeness at an urban station for the monitoring and investigation of large-scale climate change remains.

  20. Recent variations of cloudiness over Russia from surface daytime observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chernokulsky, A V; Mokhov, I I; Bulygina, O N

    2011-01-01

    Changes of total and low cloud fraction and the occurrence of different cloud types over Russia were assessed. The analysis was based on visual observations from more than 1600 meteorological stations. Differences between the 2001-10 and 1991-2000 year ranges were evaluated. In general, cloud fraction has tended to increase during recent years. A major increase of total cloud fraction and a decrease of the number of days without clouds are revealed in spring and autumn mostly due to an increase of the occurrence of convective and non-precipitating stratiform clouds. In contrast, the occurrence of nimbostratus clouds has tended to decrease. In general, the ratio between the occurrence of cumulonimbus and nimbostratus clouds has increased for the period 2001-10 relative to 1991-2000. Over particular regions, a decrease of total cloud fraction and an increase of the number of days without clouds are noted.

  1. Surface CO2 Exchange Dynamics across a Climatic Gradient in McKenzie Valley: Effect of Landforms, Climate and Permafrost

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Startsev

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Northern regions are experiencing considerable climate change affecting the state of permafrost, peat accumulation rates, and the large pool of carbon (C stored in soil, thereby emphasizing the importance of monitoring surface C fluxes in different landform sites along a climate gradient. We studied surface net C exchange (NCE and ecosystem respiration (ER across different landforms (upland, peat plateau, collapse scar in mid-boreal to high subarctic ecoregions in the Mackenzie Valley of northwestern Canada for three years. NCE and ER were measured using automatic CO2 chambers (ADC, Bioscientific LTD., Herts, England, and soil respiration (SR was measured with solid state infrared CO2 sensors (Carbocaps, Vaisala, Vantaa, Finland using the concentration gradient technique. Both NCE and ER were primarily controlled by soil temperature in the upper horizons. In upland forest locations, ER varied from 583 to 214 g C·m−2·year−1 from mid-boreal to high subarctic zones, respectively. For the bog and peat plateau areas, ER was less than half that at the upland locations. Of SR, nearly 75% was generated in the upper 5 cm layer composed of live bryophytes and actively decomposing fibric material. Our results suggest that for the upland and bog locations, ER significantly exceeded NCE. Bryophyte NCE was greatest in continuously waterlogged collapsed areas and was negligible in other locations. Overall, upland forest sites were sources of CO2 (from 64 g·C·m−2·year−1 in the high subarctic to 588 g C·m−2·year−1 in mid-boreal zone; collapsed areas were sinks of C, especially in high subarctic (from 27 g·C·m−2 year−1 in mid-boreal to 86 g·C·m−2·year−1 in high subarctic and peat plateaus were minor sources (from 153 g·C·m−2·year−1 in mid-boreal to 6 g·C·m−2·year−1 in high subarctic. The results are important in understanding how different landforms are responding to climate change and would be useful in modeling the

  2. Global Sea Surface Temperature: A Harmonized Multi-sensor Time-series from Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchant, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    This paper presents the methods used to obtain a new global sea surface temperature (SST) dataset spanning the early 1980s to the present, intended for use as a climate data record (CDR). The dataset provides skin SST (the fundamental measurement) and an estimate of the daily mean SST at depths compatible with drifting buoys (adjusting for skin and diurnal variability). The depth SST provided enables the CDR to be used with in situ records and centennial-scale SST reconstructions. The new SST timeseries is as independent as possible from in situ observations, and from 1995 onwards is harmonized to an independent satellite reference (namely, SSTs from the Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (Advanced ATSR)). This maximizes the utility of our new estimates of variability and long-term trends in interrogating previous datasets tied to in situ observations. The new SSTs include full resolution (swath, level 2) data, single-sensor gridded data (level 3, 0.05 degree latitude-longitude grid) and a multi-sensor optimal analysis (level 4, same grid). All product levels are consistent. All SSTs have validated uncertainty estimates attached. The sensors used include all Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers from NOAA-6 onwards and the ATSR series. AVHRR brightness temperatures (BTs) are calculated from counts using a new in-flight re-calibration for each sensor, ultimately linked through to the AATSR BT calibration by a new harmonization technique. Artefacts in AVHRR BTs linked to varying instrument temperature, orbital regime and solar contamination are significantly reduced. These improvements in the AVHRR BTs (level 1) translate into improved cloud detection and SST (level 2). For cloud detection, we use a Bayesian approach for all sensors. For the ATSRs, SSTs are derived with sufficient accuracy and sensitivity using dual-view coefficients. This is not the case for single-view AVHRR observations, for which a physically based retrieval is employed, using a hybrid

  3. Mapping the impact of climate change on surface recession of carbonate buildings in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonazza, Alessandra; Messina, Palmira; Sabbioni, Cristina; Grossi, Carlota M; Brimblecombe, Peter

    2009-03-01

    Climate change is currently attracting interest at both research and policy levels. However, it is usually explored in terms of its effect on agriculture, water, industry, energy, transport and health and as yet has been insufficiently addressed as a factor threatening cultural heritage. Among the climate parameters critical to heritage conservation and expected to change in the future, precipitation plays an important role in surface recession of stone. The Lipfert function has been taken under consideration to quantify the annual surface recession of carbonate stone, due to the effects of clean rain, acid rain and dry deposition of pollutants. The present paper provides Europe-wide maps showing quantitative predictions of surface recession on carbonate stones for the 21st century, combining a modified Lipfert function with output from the Hadley global climate model. Chemical dissolution of carbonate stones, via the karst effect, will increase with future CO(2) concentrations, and will come to dominate over sulfur deposition and acid rain effects on monuments and buildings in both urban and rural areas. During the present century the rainfall contribution to surface recession is likely to have a small effect, while the increase in atmospheric CO(2) concentration is shown to be the main factor in increasing weathering via the karst effect.

  4. Imaging of surface wave phase velocities from array phase observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weidle, Christian; Maupin, Valerie

    2010-05-01

    While temporary deployments some 10 years ago were largely based on short-period seismometers, the availability of broadband instruments in instrument pools increased strongly in recent years and as such modern temporary deployments for passive seismological recordings often consist to a large extent, if not exclusively, of broadband instruments. This opens for new analysis approaches as the broadband seismic wavefield is obtained at a relatively high spatial sampling relative to the wavelength. In an attempt to infer surface wave phase velocity anomalies beneath Southern Norway based on data from a temporary network of 41 broadband instruments, we present a new approach to overcome the limitations of two-station phase measurements (on the great circle with the source) and instead exploit the two-dimensional nature of the wavefield by taking into account phase measurements at all stations of the array from a single event. This is based on the assumption that the wavefield is at least piecewise linear within the study region. By triangulation of the network region and linear estimation of the phase gradient in each triangle we get without further a priori assumptions a coarse image of the phase velocity variations within our network. The image can be significantly refined for a single event recording by stacking multiple images based on arbitrary subsets of the available data. Phase velocity anomalies measured from single event recordings can be biased and blurred by non-plane arriving wavefield, reflections and diffractions of heterogeneities. Therefore, by averaging over velocity fields from different events with varying backazimuths, artefacts are reduced and the recovered image significantly improved. Another way to improve the recovered structures is to take into account the spatial variation of the amplitude field. However, while the phase between two neighboring stations may be (at least close to) linear, the amplitude may not, hence estimation of the second

  5. Soil surface roughness decay in contrasting climates, tillage types and management systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal Vázquez, Eva; Bertol, Ildegardis; Tondello Barbosa, Fabricio; Paz-Ferreiro, Jorge

    2014-05-01

    Soil surface roughness describes the variations in the elevation of the soil surface. Such variations define the soil surface microrelief, which is characterized by a high spatial variability. Soil surface roughness is a property affecting many processes such as depression storage, infiltration, sediment generation, storage and transport and runoff routing. Therefore the soil surface microrelief is a key element in hydrology and soil erosion processes at different spatial scales as for example at the plot, field or catchment scale. In agricultural land soil surface roughness is mainly created by tillage operations, which promote to different extent the formation of microdepressions and microelevations and increase infiltration and temporal retention of water. The decay of soil surface roughness has been demonstrated to be mainly driven by rain height and rain intensity, and to depend also on runoff, aggregate stability, soil reface porosity and soil surface density. Soil roughness formation and decay may be also influenced by antecedent soil moisture (either before tillage or rain), quantity and type of plant residues over the soil surface and soil composition. Characterization of the rate and intensity of soil surface roughness decay provides valuable information about the degradation of the upper most soil surface layer before soil erosion has been initiated or at the very beginning of soil runoff and erosion processes. We analyzed the rate of decay of soil surface roughness from several experiments conducted in two regions under temperate and subtropical climate and with contrasting land use systems. The data sets studied were obtained both under natural and simulated rainfall for various soil tillage and management types. Soil surface roughness decay was characterized bay several parameters, including classic and single parameters such as the random roughness or the tortuosity and parameters based on advanced geostatistical methods or on the fractal theory. Our

  6. Tropical Cyclones, Hurricanes, and Climate: NASA's Global Cloud-Scale Simulations and New Observations that Characterize the Lifecycle of Hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putman, William M.

    2010-01-01

    One of the primary interests of Global Change research is the impact of climate changes and climate variability on extreme weather events, such as intense tropical storms and hurricanes. Atmospheric climate models run at resolutions of global weather models have been used to study the impact of climate variability, as seen in sea surface temperatures, on the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) in ensembles run at 50 km resolution has been able to reproduce the interannual variations of tropical cyclone frequency seen in nature. This, and other global models, have found it much more difficult to reproduce the interannual changes in intensity, a result that reflects the inability of the models to simulate the intensities of the most extreme storms. Better representation of the structures of cyclones requires much higher resolution models. Such improved representation is also fundamental to making best use of satellite observations. In collaboration with NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GEOS-5 now has the capability of running at much higher resolution to better represent cloud-scale resolutions. Global simulations at cloud-permitting resolutions (10- to 3.5-km) allows for the development of realistic tropical cyclones from tropical storm 119 km/hr winds) to category 5 (>249km1hr winds) intensities. GEOS-5 has produced realistic rain-band and eye-wall structures in tropical cyclones that can be directly analyzed against satellite observations. For the first time a global climate model is capable of representing realistic intensity and track variability on a seasonal scale across basins. GEOS-5 is also used in assimilation mode to test the impact of NASA's observations on tropical cyclone forecasts. One such test, for tropical cyclone Nargis in the Indian Ocean in May 2008, showed that observations from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit

  7. Global land-surface evaporation estimated from satellite-based observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. G. Miralles

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper outlines a new strategy to derive evaporation from satellite observations. The approach uses a variety of satellite-sensor products to estimate daily evaporation at a global scale and 0.25 degree spatial resolution. Central to this methodology is the use of the Priestley and Taylor (PT evaporation model. The minimalistic PT equation combines a small number of inputs, the majority of which can be detected from space. This reduces the number of variables that need to be modelled. Key distinguishing features of the approach are the use of microwave-derived soil moisture, land surface temperature and vegetation density, as well as the detailed estimation of rainfall interception loss. The modelled evaporation is validated against one year of eddy covariance measurements from 43 stations. The estimated annual totals correlate well with the stations' annual cumulative evaporation (R=0.80, N=43 and present a low average bias (−5%. The validation of the daily time series at each individual station shows good model performance in all vegetation types and climate conditions with an average correlation coefficient of R=0.83, still lower than the R=0.90 found in the validation of the monthly time series. The first global map of annual evaporation developed through this methodology is also presented.

  8. Properties of the surface snow in Princess Elizabeth Land, East Antarctica - climate and non-climate dependent variability of the surface mass balance and stable water isotopic composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vladimirova, D.; Ekaykin, A.; Lipenkov, V.; Popov, S. V.; Petit, J. R.; Masson-Delmotte, V.

    2017-12-01

    Glaciological and meteorological observations conducted during the past four decades in Princess Elizabeth Land, East Antarctica, are compiled. The database is used to investigate spatial patterns of surface snow isotopic composition and surface mass balance, including detailed information near subglacial lake Vostok. We show diverse relationships between snow isotopic composition and surface temperature. In the most inland part (elevation 3200-3400 m a.s.l.), surface snow isotopic composition varies independently from surface temperature, and is closely related to the distance to the open water source (with a slope of 0.98±0.17 ‰ per 100 km). Surface mass balance values are higher along the ice sheet slope, and relatively evenly distributed inland. The minimum values of snow isotopic composition and surface mass balance are identified in an area XX km southwestward from Vostok station. The spatial distribution of deuterium excess delineates regions influenced by the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean air masses, with Vostok area being situated close to their boundary. Anomalously high deuterium excess values are observed near Dome A, suggesting high kinetic fractionation for its moisture source, or specifically high post-deposition artifacts. The dataset is available for further studies such as the assessment of skills of general circulation or regional atmospheric models, and the search for the oldest ice.

  9. Direct observations of ice seasonality reveal changes in climate over the past 320-570 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Sapna; Magnuson, John J.; Batt, Ryan D.; Winslow, Luke A.; Korhonen, Johanna; Aono, Yasuyuki

    2016-04-01

    Lake and river ice seasonality (dates of ice freeze and breakup) responds sensitively to climatic change and variability. We analyzed climate-related changes using direct human observations of ice freeze dates (1443-2014) for Lake Suwa, Japan, and of ice breakup dates (1693-2013) for Torne River, Finland. We found a rich array of changes in ice seasonality of two inland waters from geographically distant regions: namely a shift towards later ice formation for Suwa and earlier spring melt for Torne, increasing frequencies of years with warm extremes, changing inter-annual variability, waning of dominant inter-decadal quasi-periodic dynamics, and stronger correlations of ice seasonality with atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature after the start of the Industrial Revolution. Although local factors, including human population growth, land use change, and water management influence Suwa and Torne, the general patterns of ice seasonality are similar for both systems, suggesting that global processes including climate change and variability are driving the long-term changes in ice seasonality.

  10. Direct observations of ice seasonality reveal changes in climate over the past 320–570 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Sapna; Magnuson, John J.; Batt, Ryan D.; Winslow, Luke; Korhonen, Johanna; Yasuyuki Aono,

    2016-01-01

    Lake and river ice seasonality (dates of ice freeze and breakup) responds sensitively to climatic change and variability. We analyzed climate-related changes using direct human observations of ice freeze dates (1443–2014) for Lake Suwa, Japan, and of ice breakup dates (1693–2013) for Torne River, Finland. We found a rich array of changes in ice seasonality of two inland waters from geographically distant regions: namely a shift towards later ice formation for Suwa and earlier spring melt for Torne, increasing frequencies of years with warm extremes, changing inter-annual variability, waning of dominant inter-decadal quasi-periodic dynamics, and stronger correlations of ice seasonality with atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature after the start of the Industrial Revolution. Although local factors, including human population growth, land use change, and water management influence Suwa and Torne, the general patterns of ice seasonality are similar for both systems, suggesting that global processes including climate change and variability are driving the long-term changes in ice seasonality.

  11. Leveraging atmospheric CO2 observations to constrain the climate sensitivity of terrestrial ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keppel-Aleks, G.

    2015-12-01

    A significant challenge in understanding, and therefore modeling, the response of terrestrial carbon cycling to climate and environmental drivers is that vegetation varies on spatial scales of order a few kilometers whereas Earth system models (ESMs) are run with characteristic length scales of order 100 km. Atmospheric CO2 provides a constraint on carbon fluxes at spatial scales compatible with the resolution of ESMs due to the fact that atmospheric mixing renders a single site representative of fluxes within a large spatial footprint. The variations in atmospheric CO2 at both seasonal and interannual timescales largely reflect terrestrial influence. I discuss the use of atmospheric CO2 observations to benchmark model carbon fluxes over a range of spatial scales. I also discuss how simple models can be used to test functional relationships between the CO2 growth rate and climate variations. In particular, I show how atmospheric CO2 provides constraints on ecosystem sensitivity to climate drivers in the tropics, where tropical forests and semi-arid ecosystems are thought to account for much of the variability in the contemporary carbon sink.

  12. The impact of climate and composition on playa surface roughness: Investigation of atmospheric mineral dust emission mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tollerud, H. J.; Fantle, M. S.

    2011-12-01

    Atmospheric mineral dust has a wide range of impacts, including the transport of elements in geochemical cycles, health hazards from small particles, and climate forcing via the reflection of sunlight from dust particles. In particular, the mineral dust component of climate forcing is one of the most uncertain elements in the IPCC climate forcing summary. Mineral dust is also an important component of geochemical cycles. For instance, dust inputs to the ocean potentially affect the iron cycle by stimulating natural iron fertilization, which could then modify climate via the biological pump. Also dust can transport nutrients over long distances and fertilize nutrient-poor regions, such as island ecosystems or the Amazon rain forest. However, there are still many uncertainties in quantifying dust emissions from source regions. One factor that influences dust emission is surface roughness and texture, since a weak, unconsolidated surface texture is more easily ablated by wind than a strong, hard crust. We are investigating the impact of processes such as precipitation, groundwater evaporation, and wind on surface roughness in a playa dust source region. We find that water has a significant influence on surface roughness. We utilize ESA's Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) instrument to measure roughness in the playa. A map of roughness indicates where the playa surface is smooth (on the scale of centimeters) and potentially very strong, and where it is rough and might be more sensitive to disturbance. We have analyzed approximately 40 ASAR observations of the Black Rock Desert from 2007-2011. In general, the playa is smoother and more variable over time relative to nearby areas. There is also considerable variation within the playa. While the playa roughness maps changed significantly between summers and between observations during the winters, over the course of each summer, the playa surface maintained essentially the same roughness pattern. This suggests that

  13. Erratum To: Indigenous Frameworks for Observing and Responding to Climate Change in Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cochran, Patricia; Huntington, Orville H.; Pungowiyi, Caleb; Tom, Stanley; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Huntington, Henry P.; Maynard, Nancy G.; Trainor, Sarah F.

    2014-01-01

    In section 5, item 1 of this article it is stated that: A recent shift in decision-making authority from the politically appointed Board of Game to the Subsistence Division of the Alaska Department of Fish and Game should make these decisions about hunting regulations more responsive to local observations and needs. We now recognize that this shift in regulatory authority to ADF&G never occurred. We hereby correct this error so that wildlife users in Alaska do not come to ADF&G with expectations that this agency has authority to adjust hunting regulations to accommodate climate change.

  14. Regional climate model assessment of the urban land-surface forcing over central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Huszar

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the climate impact of cities and urban surfaces in general on climate of central Europe, the surface parameterization in regional climate model RegCM4 has been extended with the Single-layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM. A set of experiments was performed over the period of 2005–2009 for central Europe, either without considering urban surfaces or with the SLUCM treatment. Results show a statistically significant impact of urbanized surfaces on temperature (up to 1.5 K increase in summer as well as on the boundary layer height (increases up to 50 m. Urbanization further influences surface wind with a winter decrease up to −0.6 m s−1, though both increases and decreases were detected in summer depending on the location relative to the cities and daytime (changes up to 0.3 m s−1. Urban surfaces significantly reduce the humidity over the surface. This impacts the simulated summer precipitation rate, showing a decrease over cities of up to −2 mm day−1. Significant temperature increases are simulated over higher altitudes as well, not only within the urban canopy layer. With the urban parameterization, the climate model better describes the diurnal temperature variation, reducing the cold afternoon and evening bias of RegCM4. Sensitivity experiments were carried out to quantify the response of the meteorological conditions to changes in the parameters specific to the urban environment, such as street width, building height, albedo of the roofs and anthropogenic heat release. The results proved to be rather robust and the choice of the key SLUCM parameters impacts them only slightly (mainly temperature, boundary layer height and wind velocity. Statistically significant impacts are modelled not only over large urbanized areas, but the influence of the cities is also evident over rural areas without major urban surfaces. It is shown that this is the result of the combined effect of the distant

  15. Observing Decadal Trends in Atmospheric Feedbacks and Climate Change with Zeus and CLARREO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revercomb, H. E.; Best, F. A.; Knuteson, R. O.; Tobin, D. C.; Taylor, J. K.; Gero, P.; Adler, D. P.; Pettersen, C.; Mulligan, M.; Tobin, D. C.

    2012-12-01

    New technologies for observing decadal trends in atmospheric feedbacks and climate change from space have been recently demonstrated via a NASA Instrument Incubator Program (IIP) project of our group and the Anderson Group of Harvard University. Using these new technologies, a mission named Zeus has been proposed to the first NASA Earth Venture Instruments opportunity (EVI-1). Zeus would provide a low cost mechanism to initiate a new era in high spectral resolution IR climate Benchmark and Intercalibration observations, the basis for which has been established by definition of the CLARREO mission in the 2007 NRC "Decadal Survey" and by the Science Definition Team established by NASA LaRC to further the full blown CLARREO mission. Zeus EVI is a low-cost, low-risk, and high-value EVI mission that will deploy an Absolute Radiance Interferometer (ARI) instrument to measure absolute spectrally resolved infrared radiance over much of the Earth-emitted spectrum with ultra-high accuracy (International Space Station (ISS). For Zeus deployment on the ISS, higher latitude climate benchmark information will be obtained from operational sounders intercalibrated by Zeus. A key aspect of the Zeus ARI instrument is the On-orbit Verification and Test System (OVTS) for verifying its accuracy by reference to International Standards (SI) and testing on orbit. The OVTS includes an On-orbit Absolute Radiance Standard (OARS), which is a high emissivity cavity blackbody that can be operated over a wide range of temperatures to verify ARI calibration. The OARS uses multiple small phase change cells to establish its fundamental temperature scale to better than 5 mK absolute and a broad-band heated-halo source for monitoring its cavity spectral emissivity throughout the mission. A Quantum Cascade Laser (QCL) is also used by the OVTS to monitor the ARI instrument spectral lineshape and the emissivity of its calibration blackbody relative to that of the OARS. The ARI radiance measurements will

  16. Response of groundwater level and surface-water/groundwater interaction to climate variability: Clarence-Moreton Basin, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Tao; Raiber, Matthias; Pagendam, Dan; Gilfedder, Mat; Rassam, David

    2017-08-01

    Understanding the response of groundwater levels in alluvial and sedimentary basin aquifers to climatic variability and human water-resource developments is a key step in many hydrogeological investigations. This study presents an analysis of groundwater response to climate variability from 2000 to 2012 in the Queensland part of the sedimentary Clarence-Moreton Basin, Australia. It contributes to the baseline hydrogeological understanding by identifying the primary groundwater flow pattern, water-level response to climate extremes, and the resulting dynamics of surface-water/groundwater interaction. Groundwater-level measurements from thousands of bores over several decades were analysed using Kriging and nonparametric trend analysis, together with a newly developed three-dimensional geological model. Groundwater-level contours suggest that groundwater flow in the shallow aquifers shows local variations in the close vicinity of streams, notwithstanding general conformance with topographic relief. The trend analysis reveals that climate variability can be quickly reflected in the shallow aquifers of the Clarence-Moreton Basin although the alluvial aquifers have a quicker rainfall response than the sedimentary bedrock formations. The Lockyer Valley alluvium represents the most sensitively responding alluvium in the area, with the highest declining (-0.7 m/year) and ascending (2.1 m/year) Sen's slope rates during and after the drought period, respectively. Different surface-water/groundwater interaction characteristics were observed in different catchments by studying groundwater-level fluctuations along hydrogeologic cross-sections. The findings of this study lay a foundation for future water-resource management in the study area.

  17. Response of groundwater level and surface-water/groundwater interaction to climate variability: Clarence-Moreton Basin, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Tao; Raiber, Matthias; Pagendam, Dan; Gilfedder, Mat; Rassam, David

    2018-03-01

    Understanding the response of groundwater levels in alluvial and sedimentary basin aquifers to climatic variability and human water-resource developments is a key step in many hydrogeological investigations. This study presents an analysis of groundwater response to climate variability from 2000 to 2012 in the Queensland part of the sedimentary Clarence-Moreton Basin, Australia. It contributes to the baseline hydrogeological understanding by identifying the primary groundwater flow pattern, water-level response to climate extremes, and the resulting dynamics of surface-water/groundwater interaction. Groundwater-level measurements from thousands of bores over several decades were analysed using Kriging and nonparametric trend analysis, together with a newly developed three-dimensional geological model. Groundwater-level contours suggest that groundwater flow in the shallow aquifers shows local variations in the close vicinity of streams, notwithstanding general conformance with topographic relief. The trend analysis reveals that climate variability can be quickly reflected in the shallow aquifers of the Clarence-Moreton Basin although the alluvial aquifers have a quicker rainfall response than the sedimentary bedrock formations. The Lockyer Valley alluvium represents the most sensitively responding alluvium in the area, with the highest declining (-0.7 m/year) and ascending (2.1 m/year) Sen's slope rates during and after the drought period, respectively. Different surface-water/groundwater interaction characteristics were observed in different catchments by studying groundwater-level fluctuations along hydrogeologic cross-sections. The findings of this study lay a foundation for future water-resource management in the study area.

  18. Inferring past land use-induced changes in surface albedo from satellite observations: a useful tool to evaluate model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Boisier

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Regional cooling resulting from increases in surface albedo has been identified in several studies as the main biogeophysical effect of past land use-induced land cover changes (LCC on climate. However, the amplitude of this effect remains quite uncertain due to, among other factors, (a uncertainties in the extent of historical LCC and, (b differences in the way various models simulate surface albedo and more specifically its dependency on vegetation type and snow cover. We derived monthly albedo climatologies for croplands and four other land cover types from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS satellite observations. We then reconstructed the changes in surface albedo between preindustrial times and present-day by combining these climatologies with the land cover maps of 1870 and 1992 used by seven land surface models (LSMs in the context of the LUCID ("Land Use and Climate: identification of robust Impacts" intercomparison project. These reconstructions show surface albedo increases larger than 10% (absolute in winter, and larger than 2% in summer between 1870 and 1992 over areas that experienced intense deforestation in the northern temperate regions. The historical surface albedo changes estimated with MODIS data were then compared to those simulated by the various climate models participating in LUCID. The inter-model mean albedo response to LCC shows a similar spatial and seasonal pattern to the one resulting from the MODIS-based reconstructions, that is, larger albedo increases in winter than in summer, driven by the presence of snow. However, individual models show significant differences between the simulated albedo changes and the corresponding reconstructions, despite the fact that land cover change maps are the same. Our analyses suggest that the primary reason for those discrepancies is how LSMs parameterize albedo. Another reason, of secondary importance, results from differences in their simulated snow extent

  19. Evaluating the variability in surface water reservoir planning characteristics during climate change impacts assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soundharajan, Bankaru-Swamy; Adeloye, Adebayo J.; Remesan, Renji

    2016-07-01

    This study employed a Monte-Carlo simulation approach to characterise the uncertainties in climate change induced variations in storage requirements and performance (reliability (time- and volume-based), resilience, vulnerability and sustainability) of surface water reservoirs. Using a calibrated rainfall-runoff (R-R) model, the baseline runoff scenario was first simulated. The R-R inputs (rainfall and temperature) were then perturbed using plausible delta-changes to produce simulated climate change runoff scenarios. Stochastic models of the runoff were developed and used to generate ensembles of both the current and climate-change-perturbed future runoff scenarios. The resulting runoff ensembles were used to force simulation models of the behaviour of the reservoir to produce 'populations' of required reservoir storage capacity to meet demands, and the performance. Comparing these parameters between the current and the perturbed provided the population of climate change effects which was then analysed to determine the variability in the impacts. The methodology was applied to the Pong reservoir on the Beas River in northern India. The reservoir serves irrigation and hydropower needs and the hydrology of the catchment is highly influenced by Himalayan seasonal snow and glaciers, and Monsoon rainfall, both of which are predicted to change due to climate change. The results show that required reservoir capacity is highly variable with a coefficient of variation (CV) as high as 0.3 as the future climate becomes drier. Of the performance indices, the vulnerability recorded the highest variability (CV up to 0.5) while the volume-based reliability was the least variable. Such variabilities or uncertainties will, no doubt, complicate the development of climate change adaptation measures; however, knowledge of their sheer magnitudes as obtained in this study will help in the formulation of appropriate policy and technical interventions for sustaining and possibly enhancing

  20. Land surface albedo bias in climate models and its association with tropical rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Xavier J.; Boos, William R.

    2017-06-01

    The influence of surface albedo on tropical precipitation is widely appreciated, but albedo bias over snow-free areas in climate models has been studied little. Here historical Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations are shown to exhibit large multimodel mean bias and intermodel variability in boreal summer mean surface broadband shortwave albedo. Intermodel variability in this albedo is globally coherent over vegetated regions and correlates with intermodel tropical precipitation variability. Evidence supports the hypothesis that these spatially coherent albedo variations cause precipitation variations. Specifically, spatial structures of albedo and precipitation variations are distinct, suggesting the latter do not cause the former by darkening soil. Furthermore, simulated interannual albedo variance is small compared to intermodel albedo variance, while the ratio of interannual to intermodel precipitation variance is much larger. Finally, imposing the dominant pattern of intermodel albedo variability in one climate model causes a precipitation change with structure similar to that of the intermodel variability.

  1. Reactive surface organometallic complexes observed using dynamic nuclear polarization surface enhanced NMR spectroscopy

    KAUST Repository

    Pump, Eva

    2016-08-15

    Dynamic Nuclear Polarization Surface Enhanced NMR Spectroscopy (DNP SENS) is an emerging technique that allows access to high-sensitivity NMR spectra from surfaces. However, DNP SENS usually requires the use of radicals as an exogenous source of polarization, which has so far limited applications for organometallic surface species to those that do not react with the radicals. Here we show that reactive surface species can be studied if they are immobilized inside porous materials with suitably small windows, and if bulky nitroxide bi-radicals (here TEKPol) are used as the polarization source and which cannot enter the pores. The method is demonstrated by obtaining significant DNP enhancements from highly reactive complelxes [(equivalent to Si-O-)W(Me)(5)] supported on MCM-41, and effects of pore size (6.0, 3.0 and 2.5 nm) on the performance are discussed.

  2. Statistical multi-model climate projections of surface ocean waves in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, Jorge; Menendez, Melisa; Camus, Paula; Mendez, Fernando J.; Losada, Inigo J.

    2015-12-01

    In recent years, the impact of climate change on sea surface waves has received increasingly more attention by the climate community. Indeed, ocean waves reaching the coast play an important role in several processes concerning coastal communities, such as inundation and erosion. However, regional downscaling at the high spatial resolution necessary for coastal studies has received less attention. Here, we present a novel framework for regional wave climate projections and its application in the European region. Changes in the wave dynamics under different scenarios in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean are analyzed. The multi-model projection methodology is based on a statistical downscaling approach. The statistical relation between the predictor (atmospheric conditions) and the predictand (multivariate wave climate) is based on a weather type (WT) classification. This atmospheric classification is developed by applying the k-means clustering technique over historical offshore sea level pressure (SLP) fields. Each WT is linked to sea wave conditions from a wave hindcast. This link is developed by associating atmospheric conditions from reanalysis with multivariate local waves. This predictor-predictand relationship is applied to the daily SLP fields from global climate models (GCMs) in order to project future changes in regional wave conditions. The GCMs used in the multi-model projection are selected according to skill criteria. The application of this framework uses CMIP5-based wave climate projections in Europe. The low computational requirements of the statistical approach allow a large number of GCMs and climate change scenarios to be studied. Consistent with previous works on global wave climate projections, the estimated changes from the regional wave climate projections show a general decrease in wave heights and periods in the Atlantic Europe for the late twenty-first century. The regional projections, however, allow a more detailed

  3. Atmospheric boundary layer characteristics based on the observations at the Climate Change Tower in Ny Alesund( Svalbard).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiavon, Mario; Mazzola, Mauro; Lupi, Angelo; Drofa, Oxana; Tampieri, Francesco; Pelliccioni, Armando; Choi, Taejin; Vitale, Vito; Viola, Angelo P.

    2017-04-01

    At high latitudes, the Atmospheric Boundary Layer ( ABL) is often characterized by extremely stable vertical stratification since the surface radiative cooling determines inversions in temperature profiles especially during the polar night over land, ice and snow surfaces. Improvements are required in the theoretical understanding of the turbulent behavior of the high-latitude ABL. The parameterizations of surface-atmosphere exchanges employed in numerical weather prediction and climate models have also to be tested in the Arctic area. Moreover, the boundary layer structure and dynamics influence the vertical distribution of aerosol. The main issue is related to the height of PBL: the question is whether some decoupling occurs between the surface layer and the atmosphere aloft when the PBL is shallow or the mechanical mixing due to the synoptic circulation provides an overall vertical homogeneity of the concentration of the aerosol irrespective of the stability conditions. In this aim, the work investigates the features of the high-latitude ABL with particular attention to its vertical structure, the relationships among the main turbulent statistics (in a similarity approach) and their variation with the ABL state. The used data refer to measurements collected since 2012 to 2016 by slow and fast response sensors deployed at the 34 m high Amundsen-Nobile Climate Change Tower (CCT) installed at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard. Data from four conventional Young anemometers and Väisäla thermo-hygrometers at 2, 4.8, 10.3 and 33.4 m a.g.l., alternated by three lined up sonic anemometers at 3.7, 7.5 and 21 m a.g.l., are used in the analysis. The presented results highlight that the performance of the commonly adopted ABL similarity schemes (e.g. flux-gradient relationships and parameterizations for the stable ABL height) depends upon the ABL state, determined mainly by the wind speed and the shape of the profiles of second order moments (the two being related) . For neutral or

  4. Climate change and water table fluctuation: Implications for raised bog surface variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taminskas, Julius; Linkevičienė, Rita; Šimanauskienė, Rasa; Jukna, Laurynas; Kibirkštis, Gintautas; Tamkevičiūtė, Marija

    2018-03-01

    Cyclic peatland surface variability is influenced by hydrological conditions that highly depend on climate and/or anthropogenic activities. A low water level leads to a decrease of peatland surface and an increase of C emissions into the atmosphere, whereas a high water level leads to an increase of peatland surface and carbon sequestration in peatlands. The main aim of this article is to evaluate the influence of hydrometeorological conditions toward the peatland surface and its feedback toward the water regime. A regional survey of the raised bog water table fluctuation and surface variability was made in one of the largest peatlands in Lithuania. Two appropriate indicators for different peatland surface variability periods (increase and decrease) were detected. The first one is an 200 mm y- 1 average net rainfall over a three-year range. The second one is an average annual water depth of 25-30 cm. The application of these indicators enabled the reconstruction of Čepkeliai peatland surface variability during a 100 year period. Processes of peatland surface variability differ in time and in separate parts of peatland. Therefore, internal subbasins in peatland are formed. Subbasins involve autogenic processes that can later affect their internal hydrology, nutrient status, and vegetation succession. Internal hydrological conditions, surface fluctuation, and vegetation succession in peatland subbasins should be taken into account during evaluation of their state, nature management projects, and other peatland research works.

  5. Near-surface climate and surface energy budget of Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctic Peninsula

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuipers Munneke, P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831891; van den Broeke, M.R.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073765643; King, J.C.; Gray, T.; Reijmer, C.H.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/229345956

    2012-01-01

    Data collected by two automatic weather stations (AWS) on the Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctica, between 22 January 2009 and 1 February 2011 are analyzed and used as input for a model that computes the surface energy budget (SEB), which includes melt energy. The two AWSs are separated by about 70 km in

  6. Near-surface climate and surface energy budget of Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctic Peninsula

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuipers Munneke, P.; van den Broeke, Michiel; King, J.C.; Gray, T.; Reijmer, C.H.

    2011-01-01

    Data collected by two automatic weather stations (AWS) on the Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctica, between 22 January 2009 and 1 February 2011 are analyzed and used as input for a model that computes the surface energy budget (SEB), including melt energy. The two AWSs are separated by about 70 km in the

  7. Ocean Surface Waves and Turbulence: Air-Sea Fluxes and Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melville, W. Kendall

    2009-11-01

    Apart from heating of the atmosphere, two of the most important consequences of current climate variability are changes in sea level, and acidification of the oceans. Over decadal time scales, changes in sea level are caused by changes in heat content and salinity of the ocean, and by changes in mass resulting from exchanges between the ocean, glaciers and other land-based reservoirs. The oceans have absorbed about one third of the anthropogenic CO2 due to fossil fuel burning. This reduces the green house effect in the atmosphere, but the CO2 reacts in the surface waters of the ocean to lower pH. Conservative projections of sea level rise over the next century are O(0.1 - 1) m, while ocean acidification is already having an impact on marine ecosystems. Both these processes depend on air-sea fluxes: heat flux for sea level rise, and gas flux for ocean acidification. These fluxes are among the most poorly constrained in current climate models, but both ultimately depend on fluid dynamics at the ocean surface and in the adjacent boundary layers. Traditional boundary layer models of the marine boundary layer and the marine atmospheric boundary layer were based on classical theories of boundary layers over rigid surfaces, but there is increasing evidence that these models must now include surface wave effects. In this talk the motivating climate data and modeling will be briefly reviewed, and then recent work on surface wave dynamics, air-sea fluxes and the adjacent boundary layers will be presented. The roles of surface wave breaking, Langmuir circulations, wave-turbulence interactions and gravity-capillary waves will be discussed.

  8. Wettability of quartz surface as observed by NMR transverse relaxation time (T2)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alam, Mohammad Monzurul; Katika, Konstantina; Fabricius, Ida Lykke

    the wettability property of quartz surface by using Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) method. The principle of this method is that protons in water relax faster when it comes close to solid surface. We observed that quart is highly water wet. A layer of water (bound water) forms on the quartz surface when...

  9. HI observations of low surface brightness galaxies : Probing low-density galaxies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    deBlok, WJG; McGaugh, SS; vanderHulst, JM

    1996-01-01

    We present Very Large Array (VLA) and Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope (WSRT) 21-cm HI observations of 19 late-type low surface brightness (LSB) galaxies. Our main findings are that these galaxies, as well as having low surface brightnesses, have low HI surface densities, about a factor of

  10. A Climate Benchmark of Upper Air Temperature Observations from GNSS Radio Occultation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ao, C. O.; Mannucci, A. J.; Leroy, S. S.; Verkhoglyadova, O. P.

    2017-12-01

    GPS (Global Positioning System), or more generally Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), radio occultation (RO) is a remote sensing technique that produces highly accurate temperature in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere across the globe with fine vertical resolution. Its fundamental measurement is the time delay of the microwave signal as it travels from a GNSS satellite to the receiver in low Earth orbit. With a relatively simple physical retrieval, the uncertainty in the derived temperature can be traced rigorously through the retrieval chain back to the raw measurements. The high absolute accuracy of RO allows these observations to be assimilated without bias correction in numerical weather prediction models and provides an anchor for assimilating other types of observations. The high accuracy, coupled with long-term stability, makes RO valuable in detecting decadal temperature trends. In this presentation, we will summarize the current state of RO observations and show temperature trends derived from 15 years of RO data in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. We will discuss our recent efforts in developing retrieval algorithms that are more tailored towards climate applications. Despite the relatively robust "self-calibrating" nature of RO observations, disparity in receiver hardware and software may introduce subtle differences that need to be carefully addressed. While the historic RO data record came from relatively homogeneous hardware based largely on NASA/JPL design (e.g., CHAMP and COSMIC), the future data will likely be comprised of a diverse set of observations from Europe, China, and various commercial data providers. In addition, the use of non-GPS navigation systems will become more prevalent. We will discuss the challenges involved in establishing a long-term RO climate data record from a suite of research and operational weather satellites with changes in instrumentation and coverage.

  11. Surface potential effects in low-energy current image diffraction patterns observed on the Al(001) surface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fine structure observed in high-resolution low-energy electron diffraction (LEED) measurements near the energy threshold for emergence of new beams has been attributed to surface barrier effects. Recently, the surface barrier has been suggested as the source of the fine structure observed in current image diffraction (CID) patterns obtained by rastering the primary beam across an Al(001) crystal surface at a constant energy. This suggestion was based on kinematic arguments which correlated the emergence angle for a new electron beam with the observed structure in the CID pattern. In this work, the angular dependence of the elastic component of the total crystal reflectivity is calculated at constant energy. The calculations are based on full dynamical theories such as used in LEED but incorporating different surface barrier models to account for the saturating image potential. The results are compared with the experimental CID results

  12. Arctic Storms and Their Influence on Surface Climate in the Chukchi-Beaufort Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Y.; Zhang, X.; Rinke, A.; Zhang, J.

    2017-12-01

    Increases in the frequency and intensity of Arctic storms and resulting weather hazards may endanger the offshore environment, coastal community, and energy infrastructure in the Arctic as sea ice retreats. Advancing ability to identify fine-scale variations in surface climate produced by progressively stronger storm would be extremely helpful to resources management and sustainable development for coastal community. In this study, we analyzed the storms and their impacts on surface climate over the Beaufort-Chukchi seas by employing the date sets from both the hindcast simulations of the coupled Arctic regional climate model HIRHAM-NAOSIM and the recently developed Chukchi-Beaufort High-resolution Atmospheric Reanalysis (CBHAR). Based on the characteristics of spatial pattern and temporal variability of the Arctic storm activity, we categorized storms to three groups with their different origins: the East Siberia Sea, Alaska and the central Arctic Ocean. The storms originating from the central Arctic Ocean have the strongest intensity in winter with relatively less storm number. Storms traveling from Alaska to the Beaufort Sea most frequently occurred in autumn with weaker intensity. A large portion of storms originated from the East Siberia Sea region in summer. Further statistical analysis suggests that increase in surface air temperature and wind speed could be attributed to the increased frequency of storm occurrence in autumn (September to November) along the continental shelf in the Beaufort Sea.

  13. Microscopic observation of pattern attack by aggressive ions on finished surface of aluminium alloy sacrificial anode

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaifol Samsu; Muhammad Daud; Siti Radiah Mohd Kamarudin; Nur Ubaidah Saidin; Azali Muhammad; Mohd Shaari Ripin; Rusni Rejab; Mohd Shariff Sattar

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a microscopic observation on submerged finished surface of aluminium alloy sacrificial anode. Experimental tests were carried out on polished surface aluminium anode exposed to seawater containing aggressive ions in order to observe of pattern corrosion attack on corroding surface of anode. Results have shown, at least under the present testing condition, that surface of sacrificial anode were attack by an aggressive ion such as chloride along grain boundaries. In addition, results of microanalysis showed that the corrosion products on surface of aluminium alloy have Al, Zn and O element for all sample and within the pit was consists of Al, Zn, O and Cl element. (author)

  14. A statistical adjustment approach for climate projections of snow conditions in mountain regions using energy balance land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verfaillie, Deborah; Déqué, Michel; Morin, Samuel; Lafaysse, Matthieu

    2017-04-01

    Projections of future climate change have been increasingly called for lately, as the reality of climate change has been gradually accepted and societies and governments have started to plan upcoming mitigation and adaptation policies. In mountain regions such as the Alps or the Pyrenees, where winter tourism and hydropower production are large contributors to the regional revenue, particular attention is brought to current and future snow availability. The question of the vulnerability of mountain ecosystems as well as the occurrence of climate-related hazards such as avalanches and debris-flows is also under consideration. In order to generate projections of snow conditions, however, downscaling global climate models (GCMs) by using regional climate models (RCMs) is not sufficient to capture the fine-scale processes and thresholds at play. In particular, the altitudinal resolution matters, since the phase of precipitation is mainly controlled by the temperature which is altitude-dependent. Simulations from GCMs and RCMs moreover suffer from biases compared to local observations, due to their rather coarse spatial and altitudinal resolution, and often provide outputs at too coarse time resolution to drive impact models. RCM simulations must therefore be adjusted using empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction methods, before they can be used to drive specific models such as energy balance land surface models. In this study, time series of hourly temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, and short- and longwave radiation were generated over the Pyrenees and the French Alps for the period 1950-2100, by using a new approach (named ADAMONT for ADjustment of RCM outputs to MOuNTain regions) based on quantile mapping applied to daily data, followed by time disaggregation accounting for weather patterns selection. We first introduce a thorough evaluation of the method using using model runs from the ALADIN RCM driven by a global reanalysis over the

  15. Near-surface climate and surface energy budget of Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctic Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Kuipers Munneke

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Data collected by two automatic weather stations (AWS on the Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctica, between 22 January 2009 and 1 February 2011 are analyzed and used as input for a model that computes the surface energy budget (SEB, which includes melt energy. The two AWSs are separated by about 70 km in the north–south direction, and both the near-surface meteorology and the SEB show similarities, although small differences in all components (most notably the melt flux can be seen. The impact of subsurface absorption of shortwave radiation on melt and snow temperature is significant, and discussed. In winter, longwave cooling of the surface is entirely compensated by a downward turbulent transport of sensible heat. In summer, the positive net radiative flux is compensated by melt, and quite frequently by upward turbulent diffusion of heat and moisture, leading to sublimation and weak convection over the ice shelf. The month of November 2010 is highlighted, when strong westerly flow over the Antarctic Peninsula led to a dry and warm föhn wind over the ice shelf, resulting in warm and sunny conditions. Under these conditions the increase in shortwave and sensible heat fluxes is larger than the decrease of net longwave and latent heat fluxes, providing energy for significant melt.

  16. Satellite Earth observation data to identify climate and anthropogenic pressures on Bucharest periurban forests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zoran, Maria; Savastru, Roxana; Savastru, Dan [National Institute of R& D for Optoelectronics, MG5 Bucharest-Magurele, 077125 Romania (Romania); Dida, Adrian [University Transylvania of Brasov, Brasov (Romania)

    2016-03-25

    Satellite Earth observation data in the visible and near-infrared (VNIR) wavelengths represent a useful source of information for forest systems monitoring through derived biogeophysical parameters (vegetation index, leaf area index, canopy cover, fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation, chlorophyll content, net primary production, canopy water stress, etc.). Use of satellite remote sensing data to assess forest spatio-temporal changes due to climatic or anthropogenic stressors is an excellent example of the value of multispectral and multitemporal observations. Fusion technique was applied to time-series multispectral and multitemporal satellite imagery (NOAA AVHRR, MODIS Terra/Aqua, Landsat ETM and IKONOS satellite data) for periurban forest areas Cernica-Branesti, placed in the neighboring of Bucharest town, Romania, over 2002-2014 period.

  17. Synoptic and mesoscale climate forcing on Antarctic ice shelf surface melt dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmosky, Christopher

    Given that the polar regions, especially the Antarctic Peninsula, have experienced one of the largest temperature increases on Earth over the last few decades, an understanding of Antarctic climate has become more urgent. Ice shelves themselves are located at the intersection of the atmosphere, hydrosphere and the cryosphere---the air-ice-ocean boundary, and are sensitive to changes in any of these media. In addition to being particularly sensitive to changes in climate, ice shelves play an important role in controlling the flow of glaciers into the ocean, which has important implications for sea level changes. In a warming world, an increased understanding of how climate change is affecting Antarctic ice shelves is valuable for assessing vulnerable regions of the Antarctic that may be prone to further instability. This work focuses on determining the underlying climatic processes controlling energy and mass balance responsible for driving melting over ice shelves. A novel melt-magnitude retrieval method is presented that uses Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived near-IR reflectance coupled with ice surface temperature as a proxy for surface melt magnitude. This method has a higher spatial resolution than passive microwave melt detection, has the added benefit of retrieving melt magnitude rather than a binary melt occurrence or non-occurrence, but has a lower temporal resolution than either passive-microwave or microwave-scatterometry melt detection. This limitation is a result of the opacity of cloud cover to both visible and IR radiation, requiring more satellite overpasses to obtain spatially contiguous imagery. This work also examines several weather variables associated with a large-extent, long-duration surface melt event on the Ross Ice Shelf. It is shown that cloudy conditions coupled with increased sensible and latent heat flux to the surface were present during the event, and these conditions are consistent with those that induce

  18. Impact of the use of a CO2 responsive land surface model in simulating the effect of climate change on the hydrology of French Mediterranean basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Queguiner, S.; Martin, E.; Lafont, S.; Calvet, J.-C.; Faroux, S.; Quintana-Seguí, P.

    2011-10-01

    In order to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the impact model in climate change studies, a CO2 responsive version of the land surface model ISBA (ISBA-A-gs) is compared with its standard version in a climate impact assessment study. The study is performed over the French Mediterranean basin using the Safran-Isba-Modcou chain. A downscaled A2 regional climate scenario is used to force both versions of ISBA, and the results of the two land surface models are compared for the present climate and for that at the end of the century. Reasonable agreement is found between models and with discharge observations. However, ISBA-A-gs has a lower mean evapotranspiration and a higher discharge than ISBA-Standard. Results for the impact of climate change are coherent on a yearly basis for evapotranspiration, total runoff, and discharge. However, the two versions of ISBA present contrasting seasonal variations. ISBA-A-gs develops a different vegetation cycle. The growth of the vegetation begins earlier and reaches a slightly lower maximum than in the present climate. This maximum is followed by a rapid decrease in summertime. In consequence, the springtime evapotranspiration is significantly increased when compared to ISBA-Standard, while the autumn evapotranspiration is lower. On average, discharge changes are more significant at the regional scale with ISBA-A-gs.

  19. Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Distribution as an Indicator of Arctic Climate Change - Synthesis of Model Results and Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslowski, Wieslaw; Clement Kinney, Jaclyn; Jakacki, Jaromir; Osinski, Robert; Zwally, Jay

    2010-05-01

    The Arctic region is an integral part of the Earth's climate system through its influence on global surface energy and moisture fluxes and on atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Within the Arctic, its sea ice cover is possibly the most sensitive indicator of the polar amplified global warming and of the state of Arctic climate system as a whole. Hence changes in Arctic climate and the decline of multi-year sea ice cover have significant ramifications to the entire pan-Arctic region and beyond. Having the recorded average global surface temperature about 0.54°C (0.96°F) above the 20th Century average the decade of 2000-2009 has been the warmest of the 130-year record, with the maximum positive temperatures anomalies in the northern high latitude regions. Satellite records of the Arctic sea ice show a decreasing and accelerating trend in ice extent and concentration since the late 1979, as a result of the global warming. More importantly there is growing evidence that the Arctic sea ice thickness and volume have been decreasing at even faster rate. This means that our knowledge of the Arctic sea ice melt might be significantly biased due to the interpretation of 2-dimensional sea ice extent / concentration records only instead of ice thickness and volume. The rates of recent ice thickness and volume melt derived from our pan-Arctic coupled ice-ocean model results combined with recent remotely sensed data suggest an accelerating negative trend. This trend is robust and lends credence to the postulation that the Arctic not only might but it is likely to be ice-free during the summer in the near future. However, global climate models vary widely in their predictions of warming and the rate of Arctic ice melt, suggesting it may take anywhere from a couple of decades to more than a century to melt most of the summer sea ice cover. Also many regional models are limited in their representation of the rapid Arctic sea ice thinning and volume loss. The inability of models

  20. Assessing surface water availability considering human water use and projected climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashraf, Batool; AghaKouchak, Amir; Mousavi-Baygi, Mohammd; Moftakhari, Hamed; Anjileli, Hassan

    2017-04-01

    Climate variability along with anthropogenic activities alter the hydrological cycle and local water availability. The overarching goal of this presentation is to demonstrate the compounding interactions between human water use/withdrawals and climate change and variability. We focus on Karkheh River basin and Urmia basin, in western Iran, that have high level of human activity and water use, and suffer from low water productivity. The future of these basins and their growth relies on sustainable water resources and hence, requires a holistic, basin-wide management to cope with water scarcity challenges. In this study, we investigate changes in the hydrology of the basin including human-induced alterations of the system, during the past three decades. Then, we investigate the individual and combined effects of climate variability and human water withdrawals on surface water storage in the 21st century. We use bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from ensemble mean of eleven General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results show that, hydrology of the studied basins are significantly dominated by human activities over the baseline period (1976 - 2005). Results show that the increased anthropogenic water demand resulting from substantial socio-economic growth in the past three decades have put significant stress on water resources. We evaluate a number of future water demand scenarios and their interactions with future climate projections. Our results show that by the end of the 21st century, the compounding effects of increased irrigation water demand and precipitation variability may lead to severe local water scarcity in these basins. Our study highlights the necessity for understanding and considering the compounding effects of human water use and future climate projections. Such studies would be useful for improving water management and developing adaption plans in water scarce regions.

  1. Climate and emission changes contributing to changes in near-surface ozone in Europe over the coming decades: results from model studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engardt, Magnuz; Bergström, Robert; Andersson, Camilla

    2009-12-01

    We used an off-line, regional, model of atmospheric transport and chemistry to investigate current and future levels of near-surface ozone and accumulated ozone exposure over a threshold of 40 ppb(v) (AOT40) in Europe. To describe the current situation and enable an evaluation of the model's performance we simulated a number of years around 2000. To assess changes in ozone concentrations due to possible emission changes in Europe, the model was run with the meteorology of the early 2000s and precursor emissions from a set of Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) emissions scenarios. By extrapolation of the observed increase in near-surface O3 at coastal locations in northwest Europe we constructed model boundaries that were used to simulate the impact of increasing hemispheric background in 2020. To assess changes in ozone concentrations due to climate change, the model was run with recent (2000) emissions but using meteorology from a regional climate model simulating a control (1961-1990) and a future (2021-2050) climate. The results indicate that climate change will have a small impact on ozone concentrations and AOT40 in the Nordic countries. Changes in hemispheric background concentrations and changes in precursor emissions in Europe will have a larger effect on ozone in Northern Europe. The situation is quite different in southern Europe, where climate change is expected to result in a very large increase in near-surface ozone concentrations.

  2. Observed 20th century desert dust variability: impact on climate and biogeochemistry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. M. Mahowald

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Desert dust perturbs climate by directly and indirectly interacting with incoming solar and outgoing long wave radiation, thereby changing precipitation and temperature, in addition to modifying ocean and land biogeochemistry. While we know that desert dust is sensitive to perturbations in climate and human land use, previous studies have been unable to determine whether humans were increasing or decreasing desert dust in the global average. Here we present observational estimates of desert dust based on paleodata proxies showing a doubling of desert dust during the 20th century over much, but not all the globe. Large uncertainties remain in estimates of desert dust variability over 20th century due to limited data. Using these observational estimates of desert dust change in combination with ocean, atmosphere and land models, we calculate the net radiative effect of these observed changes (top of atmosphere over the 20th century to be −0.14 ± 0.11 W/m2 (1990–1999 vs. 1905–1914. The estimated radiative change due to dust is especially strong between the heavily loaded 1980–1989 and the less heavily loaded 1955–1964 time periods (−0.57 ± 0.46 W/m2, which model simulations suggest may have reduced the rate of temperature increase between these time periods by 0.11 °C. Model simulations also indicate strong regional shifts in precipitation and temperature from desert dust changes, causing 6 ppm (12 PgC reduction in model carbon uptake by the terrestrial biosphere over the 20th century. Desert dust carries iron, an important micronutrient for ocean biogeochemistry that can modulate ocean carbon storage; here we show that dust deposition trends increase ocean productivity by an estimated 6% over the 20th century, drawing down an additional 4 ppm (8 PgC of carbon dioxide into the oceans. Thus, perturbations to desert dust over the 20th century inferred from observations are potentially important for climate and

  3. Observed 20th Century Desert Dust Variability: Impact on Climate and Biogeochemistry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahowald, Natalie [Cornell University; Kloster, Silvia [Cornell University; Engelstaedter, S. [Cornell University; Moore, Jefferson Keith [University of California, Irvine; Mukhopadhyay, S. [Harvard University; McConnell, J. R. [Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV; Albani, S. [Cornell University; Doney, Scott C. [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Woods Hole, MA; Bhattacharya, A. [Harvard University; Curran, M. A. J. [Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre; Flanner, Mark G. [University of Michigan; Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Lawrence, David M. [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); Lindsay, Keith [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); Mayewski, P. A. [University of Maine; Neff, Jason [University of Colorado, Boulder; Rothenberg, D. [Cornell University; Thomas, E. [British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK; Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Zender, Charlie S. [University of California, Irvine

    2010-01-01

    Desert dust perturbs climate by directly and indirectly interacting with incoming solar and outgoing long wave radiation, thereby changing precipitation and temperature, in addition to modifying ocean and land biogeochemistry. While we know that desert dust is sensitive to perturbations in climate and human land use, previous studies have been unable to determine whether humans were increasing or decreasing desert dust in the global average. Here we present observational estimates of desert dust based on paleodata proxies showing a doubling of desert dust during the 20th century over much, but not all the globe. Large uncertainties remain in estimates of desert dust variability over 20th century due to limited data. Using these observational estimates of desert dust change in combination with ocean, atmosphere and land models, we calculate the net radiative effect of these observed changes (top of atmosphere) over the 20th century to be -0.14 {+-} 0.11 W/m{sup 2} (1990-1999 vs. 1905-1914). The estimated radiative change due to dust is especially strong between the heavily loaded 1980-1989 and the less heavily loaded 1955-1964 time periods (-0.57 {+-} 0.46 W/m{sup 2}), which model simulations suggest may have reduced the rate of temperature increase between these time periods by 0.11 C. Model simulations also indicate strong regional shifts in precipitation and temperature from desert dust changes, causing 6 ppm (12 PgC) reduction in model carbon uptake by the terrestrial biosphere over the 20th century. Desert dust carries iron, an important micronutrient for ocean biogeochemistry that can modulate ocean carbon storage; here we show that dust deposition trends increase ocean productivity by an estimated 6% over the 20th century, drawing down an additional 4 ppm (8 PgC) of carbon dioxide into the oceans. Thus, perturbations to desert dust over the 20th century inferred from observations are potentially important for climate and biogeochemistry, and our understanding

  4. The atmospheric composition geostationary satellite constellation for air quality and climate science: Evaluating performance with Observation System Simulation Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, D. P.; Barre, J.; Worden, H. M.; Arellano, A. F.; Gaubert, B.; Anderson, J. L.; Mizzi, A. P.; Lahoz, W. A.

    2014-12-01

    Current satellite observations of tropospheric composition made from low Earth orbit provide at best one or two measurements each day at any given location. Coverage is global but sparse, often with large uncertainties in individual measurements that limit examination of local and regional atmospheric composition over short time periods. This has hindered the operational uptake of these data for monitoring air quality and population exposure, and for initializing and evaluating chemical weather forecasts. By the end of the current decade there are planned geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) satellite missions for atmospheric composition over North America, East Asia and Europe with additional missions proposed. Together, these present the possibility of a constellation of GEO platforms to achieve continuous time-resolved high-density observations of continental domains for mapping pollutant sources and variability on diurnal and local scales. We describe Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) to evaluate the contributions of these GEO missions to improve knowledge of near-surface air pollution due to intercontinental long-range transport and quantify chemical precursor emissions. We discuss the requirements on measurement simulation, chemical transport modeling, and data assimilation for a successful OSSE infrastructure. Our approach uses an efficient computational method to sample a high-resolution global GEOS-5 chemistry Nature Run over each geographical region of the GEO constellation. The demonstration carbon monoxide (CO) observation simulator, which is being expanded to other chemical pollutants, currently produces multispectral retrievals and captures realistic scene-dependent variation in measurement vertical sensitivity and cloud cover. We use the DART Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter to assimilate the simulated observations in a CAM-Chem global chemistry-climate model Control Run. The impact of observing over each region is evaluated using data

  5. Responses of Surface Energy Partition to Climatic Factors: A Comparison Over Two Types of Underlying Surfaces in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Y.; Xie, J.; Xia, D.

    2017-12-01

    Sensible and latent heat fluxes are energy ties that connect the land surface and the atmosphere through tightly coupling soil moisture to temperature and precipitation. The response of surface energy partitioning into sensible and latent heat fluxes to climatic factors is extremely complex and significantly different in different regions. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, known as the "roof of the world", has an average elevation of more than 4000 m and an area of about 2.57 x 106 km2 . Due to its high elevation, much less column air mass, and strong solar radiation, the land-atmosphere interaction is very strong over the plateau. In this study, surface observations at two sites with distinctively different surface conditions (nearly bare vs alpine grassland) over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau were obtained in 2014. A combinatorial stratification method was used to compare and analysis the direct and indirect effects of soil water content (SWC), net radiation (Rnet) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) on surface energy partitioning at the two sites, and a path analysis method was used to study the key climatic factors influencing surface energy partition over the two different underlying surfaces. Results show that the responses of evaporative fraction (EF) to SWC stayed in soil moisture-limited regime at the nearly bare site while it is energy-limited at the alpine grassland. EF grows faster with SWC when VPD was high and Rnet had little impact on the variation of EF with SWC at the bare ground site. The variation of EF with SWC is not influenced by VPD and Rnet at the alpine grassland. EF decreases at first and then tends to be stable as VPD increases, and the sensitive of EF to VPD reduced when SWC becomes larger and it is independent of Rnet at the bare ground site. EF increases slightly at first and then tends to be stable as VPD increases and the trend is not influenced by SWC and Rnet at the alpine grassland. EF tends to be stable as Rnet increases and the stable values

  6. A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L; Ting, M; Kushner, P J

    2017-03-21

    A key determinant of winter weather and climate in Europe and North America is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Atlantic domain. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the surface climate in both Europe and North America is reflected largely in how accurately models can predict the NAO. Most dynamical models, however, have limited skill in seasonal forecasts of the winter NAO. A new empirical model is proposed for the seasonal forecast of the winter NAO that exhibits higher skill than current dynamical models. The empirical model provides robust and skilful prediction of the December-January-February (DJF) mean NAO index using a multiple linear regression (MLR) technique with autumn conditions of sea-ice concentration, stratospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperature. The predictability is, for the most part, derived from the relatively long persistence of sea ice in the autumn. The lower stratospheric circulation and sea-surface temperature appear to play more indirect roles through a series of feedbacks among systems driving NAO evolution. This MLR model also provides skilful seasonal outlooks of winter surface temperature and precipitation over many regions of Eurasia and eastern North America.

  7. Reinitialised versus continuous regional climate simulations using ALARO-0 coupled to the land surface model SURFEXv5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berckmans, Julie; Giot, Olivier; De Troch, Rozemien; Hamdi, Rafiq; Ceulemans, Reinhart; Termonia, Piet

    2017-01-01

    Dynamical downscaling in a continuous approach using initial and boundary conditions from a reanalysis or a global climate model is a common method for simulating the regional climate. The simulation potential can be improved by applying an alternative approach of reinitialising the atmosphere, combined with either a daily reinitialised or a continuous land surface. We evaluated the dependence of the simulation potential on the running mode of the regional climate model ALARO coupled to the land surface model Météo-France SURFace EXternalisée (SURFEX), and driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Three types of downscaling simulations were carried out for a 10-year period from 1991 to 2000, over a western European domain at 20 km horizontal resolution: (1) a continuous simulation of both the atmosphere and the land surface, (2) a simulation with daily reinitialisations for both the atmosphere and the land surface and (3) a simulation with daily reinitialisations of the atmosphere while the land surface is kept continuous. The results showed that the daily reinitialisation of the atmosphere improved the simulation of the 2 m temperature for all seasons. It revealed a neutral impact on the daily precipitation totals during winter, but the results were improved for the summer when the land surface was kept continuous. The behaviour of the three model configurations varied among different climatic regimes. Their seasonal cycle for the 2 m temperature and daily precipitation totals was very similar for a Mediterranean climate, but more variable for temperate and continental climate regimes. Commonly, the summer climate is characterised by strong interactions between the atmosphere and the land surface. The results for summer demonstrated that the use of a daily reinitialised atmosphere improved the representation of the partitioning of the surface energy fluxes. Therefore, we recommend using the alternative approach of the daily reinitialisation of the atmosphere for

  8. Direct Observation of Domain-Wall Surface Tension by Deflating or Inflating a Magnetic Bubble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xueying; Vernier, Nicolas; Zhao, Weisheng; Yu, Haiming; Vila, Laurent; Zhang, Yue; Ravelosona, Dafiné

    2018-02-01

    The surface energy of a magnetic domain wall (DW) strongly affects its static and dynamic behaviors. However, this effect is seldom directly observed, and some of the related phenomena are not well understood. Moreover, a reliable method to quantify the DW surface energy is still absent. Here, we report a series of experiments in which the DW surface energy becomes a dominant parameter. We observe that a semicircular magnetic domain bubble can spontaneously collapse under the Laplace pressure induced by DW surface energy. We further demonstrate that the surface energy can lead to a geometrically induced pinning when the DW propagates in a Hall cross or from a nanowire into a nucleation pad. Based on these observations, we develop two methods to quantify the DW surface energy, which can be very helpful in the estimation of intrinsic parameters such as Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interactions or exchange stiffness in magnetic ultrathin films.

  9. Observationally constrained surface mass balance of Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Kuipers Munneke

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The surface mass balance (SMB of the Larsen C ice shelf (LCIS, Antarctica, is poorly constrained due to a dearth of in situ observations. Combining several geophysical techniques, we reconstruct spatial and temporal patterns of SMB over the LCIS. Continuous time series of snow height (2.5–6 years at five locations allow for multi-year estimates of seasonal and annual SMB over the LCIS. There is high interannual variability in SMB as well as spatial variability: in the north, SMB is 0.40 ± 0.06 to 0.41 ± 0.04 m w.e. year−1, while farther south, SMB is up to 0.50 ± 0.05 m w.e. year−1. This difference between north and south is corroborated by winter snow accumulation derived from an airborne radar survey from 2009, which showed an average snow thickness of 0.34 m w.e. north of 66° S, and 0.40 m w.e. south of 68° S. Analysis of ground-penetrating radar from several field campaigns allows for a longer-term perspective of spatial variations in SMB: a particularly strong and coherent reflection horizon below 25–44 m of water-equivalent ice and firn is observed in radargrams collected across the shelf. We propose that this horizon was formed synchronously across the ice shelf. Combining snow height observations, ground and airborne radar, and SMB output from a regional climate model yields a gridded estimate of SMB over the LCIS. It confirms that SMB increases from north to south, overprinted by a gradient of increasing SMB to the west, modulated in the west by föhn-induced sublimation. Previous observations show a strong decrease in firn air content toward the west, which we attribute to spatial patterns of melt, refreezing, and densification rather than SMB.

  10. Land-Surface Characteristics and Climate in West Africa: Models’ Biases and Impacts of Historical Anthropogenically-Induced Deforestation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Souleymane Sy

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Land Use Land-Cover Change (LULCC, such as deforestation, affects the climate system and land-atmosphere interactions. Using simulations carried out within the LUCID (Land Use and Climate, IDentification of robust Impacts project framework, we first quantify the role of historical land-cover change induced by human activities on surface climate in West Africa. Focusing on two contrasted African regions, we find that climate responses of land-use changes are small but they are still statistically significant. In Western Sahel, a statistically significant near-surface atmospheric cooling and a decrease in water recycling are simulated in summer in response to LULCC. Over the Guinean zone, models simulate a significant decrease in precipitation and water recycling in autumn in response to LULCC. This signal is comparable in magnitude with the effect induced by the increase in greenhouse gases. Simulated climate changes due to historical LULCC could however be underestimated because: (i the prescribed LULCC can be underestimated in those regions; (ii the climate models underestimate the coupling strength between West African surface climate and leaf area index (LAI and (iii the lack of interactive LAI in some models. Finally, our study reveals indirect atmospheric processes triggered by LULCC. Over the Western Sahel, models reveal that a significant decrease in solar reflection tend to cool down the surface and thus counteract the atmospheric feedback. Conversely, over the Guinea zone, models reveal that the indirect atmospheric processes and turbulent heat fluxes dominate the climatic responses over the direct effects of LULCC.

  11. Comparison of the observed and calculated clear sky greenhouse effect - Implications for climate studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiehl, J. T.; Briegleb, B. P.

    1992-01-01

    The clear sky greenhouse effect is defined in terms of the outgoing longwave clear sky flux at the top of the atmosphere. Recently, interest in the magnitude of the clear sky greenhouse effect has increased due to the archiving of the clear sky flux quantity through the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). The present study investigates to what degree of accuracy this flux can be analyzed by using independent atmospheric and surface data in conjunction with a detailed longwave radiation model. The conclusion from this comparison is that for most regions over oceans the analyzed fluxes agree to within the accuracy of the ERBE-retrieved fluxes (+/- 5 W/sq m). However, in regions where deep convective activity occurs, the ERBE fluxes are significantly higher (10-15 W/sq m) than the calculated fluxes. This bias can arise from either cloud contamination problems or variability in water vapor amount. It is argued that the use of analyzed fluxes may provide a more consistent clear sky flux data set for general circulation modeling validation. Climate implications from the analyzed fluxes are explored. Finally, results for obtaining longwave surface fluxes over the oceans are presented.

  12. Homogenizing Surface and Satellite Observations of Cloud. Aspects of Bias in Surface Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-11-10

    configuration, as well as the experience, location and procedure adopted by the observer. Where the clouds exhibit vertical development the observer includes the...Australasia which was thus removed from the list of analysis areas. 2.4 Discuuios of Ressite Figures 3 to 6 illustrate diurnal plots of the frequency of...a small group of stations may be expected to exhibit more marked variability compaed to the mean result for a larger number of stations. Figure 7 to

  13. Extrapolating carbon dynamics of tropical dry forests into future climates: improving simulation models with empirical observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medvigy, David; Waring, Bonnie; Vargas, German; Xu, Xiangtao; Smith, Christina; Becknell, Justin; Trierweiler, Annette; Brodribb, Timothy; Powers, Jennifer

    2017-04-01

    Tropical dry forests occur in areas with warm temperatures and a pronounced dry season with little to no rainfall that lasts 3 to 7 months. The potential area covered by this biome is vast: globally, 47% of all forest occurs in tropical and subtropical latitudes, and of all tropical forests approximately 42% are classified as dry forests. Throughout the last several centuries, the area covered by tropical dry forests has been dramatically reduced through conversion to grazing and croplands, and they are now considered the most threatened tropical biome. However, in many regions, tropical dry forests are now growing back. There is growing concern that this recovery process will be strongly impacted by climate variability and change. Observations show that climate is changing in the seasonal tropics, and climate models forecast that neotropical dry forests will receive significantly less rainfall in the 21st century than in the 20th century. Rates of nitrogen deposition are also changing rapidly in this sector, and the fertility of some soils may still be recovering from past land use. We are engaged in several efforts to understand how water and nutrients limit the productivity of these forests, including manipulative experiments, modeling, and investigation of responses to natural climate variability. In 2015, at a well-characterized site in Guanacaste, Costa Rica, we established a full-factorial fertilization experiment with N and P in diverse mature forest stands. Initial responses highlight stronger ecosystem sensitivity to P addition than to N addition. Intriguingly, pre-experiment numerical simulations with a mechanistic ecosystem model had indicated the reverse. Work is ongoing to use field observations to better represent critical processes in the model, and ultimately to improve the model's sensitivity to nutrients and water. In addition, in 2016, we established a full factorial nutrient addition and drought experiment in plantations. Thus far, soil

  14. Confronting the surface temperature cold bias in AGCMs over the Tibetan Plateau and improving climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, G. X.; Liu, Y.; Bao, Q.; Chen, X.; Li, J.

    2017-12-01

    One of the mid-term progresses of the NSFC- Key Research Program "Land-air Coupling over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Climate Impact " is presented. The elevated heating in summer and cooling in winter of the Tibetan Plateau significantly regulate the seasonal change of the atmospheric circulation and exert remarkable impacts on world climate. Recent studies have demonstrated that the majority of the Phase-5 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models underestimate annual and seasonal mean surface air temperatures (Ta) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In addition, more than half of the models underestimate annual and seasonal mean surface temperatures (Ts) over the TP. These cold biases are larger over the western TP. By decomposing the Ts bias using the surface energy budget equation, it was demonstrated that this TP's cold bias can be attributed to various factors, in which the stronger bias in surface albedo (a-) and the weaker bias in clear-sky downward Longwave radiation (DLR) play the most significant roles. Since a- and DLR are respectively affected by snow coverage fraction at the ground surface and water vapor content in the atmosphere, these results then imply that the cold bias over the TP is caused by too large snow coverage fraction and too less water vapor content over the TP in the models. The FAMIL AGCM model developed at LASG also suffers from the similar cold bias over the TP. By introducing the 3D- Radiative Transfer Parameterization Over Mountains/Snow (Liou, 2013) into the model, the total solar radiation reaching the ground surface is increased during the daytime, resulting in more snowmelt and less snow coverage. Accordingly, surface albedo is decreased on the sunny side of the mountains, and the surface cold bias over mountain areas is decreased. It is shown that the improvement is sensitive to the model resolution: increased the horizontal resolution of Community Land Model version 4.0 (CLM 4.0) from nearly 200km (1.9o×2.5o) to

  15. Towards Improving Sea Ice Predictabiity: Evaluating Climate Models Against Satellite Sea Ice Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stroeve, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    The last four decades have seen a remarkable decline in the spatial extent of the Arctic sea ice cover, presenting both challenges and opportunities to Arctic residents, government agencies and industry. After the record low extent in September 2007 effort has increased to improve seasonal, decadal-scale and longer-term predictions of the sea ice cover. Coupled global climate models (GCMs) consistently project that if greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, the eventual outcome will be a complete loss of the multiyear ice cover. However, confidence in these projections depends o HoHoweon the models ability to reproduce features of the present-day climate. Comparison between models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and observations of sea ice extent and thickness show that (1) historical trends from 85% of the model ensemble members remain smaller than observed, and (2) spatial patterns of sea ice thickness are poorly represented in most models. Part of the explanation lies with a failure of models to represent details of the mean atmospheric circulation pattern that governs the transport and spatial distribution of sea ice. These results raise concerns regarding the ability of CMIP5 models to realistically represent the processes driving the decline of Arctic sea ice and to project the timing of when a seasonally ice-free Arctic may be realized. On shorter time-scales, seasonal sea ice prediction has been challenged to predict the sea ice extent from Arctic conditions a few months to a year in advance. Efforts such as the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) project, originally organized through the Study of Environmental Change (SEARCH) and now managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network project (SIPN) synthesize predictions of the September sea ice extent based on a variety of approaches, including heuristic, statistical and dynamical modeling. Analysis of SIO contributions reveals that when the

  16. Impacts of climate changes on ocean surface gravity waves over the eastern Canadian shelf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Lanli; Sheng, Jinyu

    2017-05-01

    A numerical study is conducted to investigate the impact of climate changes on ocean surface gravity waves over the eastern Canadian shelf (ECS). The "business-as-usual" climate scenario known as Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 is considered in this study. Changes in the ocean surface gravity waves over the study region for the period 1979-2100 are examined based on 3 hourly ocean waves simulated by the third-generation ocean wave model known as WAVEWATCHIII. The wave model is driven by surface winds and ice conditions produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4). The whole study period is divided into the present (1979-2008), near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) periods to quantify possible future changes of ocean waves over the ECS. In comparison with the present ocean wave conditions, the time-mean significant wave heights ( H s ) are expected to increase over most of the ECS in the near future and decrease over this region in the far future period. The time-means of the annual 5% largest H s are projected to increase over the ECS in both near and far future periods due mainly to the changes in surface winds. The future changes in the time-means of the annual 5% largest H s and 10-m wind speeds are projected to be twice as strong as the changes in annual means. An analysis of inverse wave ages suggests that the occurrence of wind seas is projected to increase over the southern Labrador and central Newfoundland Shelves in the near future period, and occurrence of swells is projected to increase over other areas of the ECS in both the near and far future periods.

  17. Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, Lisa

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Nine global coupled climate models were assessed for their ability to reproduce observed trends in a set of indices representing temperature and precipitation extremes over Australia. Observed trends for 1957-1999 were compared with individual and multi-modelled trends calculated over the same period. When averaged across Australia the magnitude of trends and interannual variability of temperature extremes were well simulated by most models, particularly for the warm nights index. Except for consecutive dry days, the majority of models also reproduced the correct sign of trend for precipitation extremes. A bootstrapping technique was used to show that most models produce plausible trends when averaged over Australia, although only heavy precipitation days simulated from the multi-model ensemble showed significant skill at reproducing the observed spatial pattern of trends. Two of the models with output from different forcings showed that only with anthropogenic forcing included could the models capture the observed areally averaged trend for some of the temperature indices, but the forcing made little difference to the models' ability to reproduce the spatial pattern of trends over Australia. Future projected changes in extremes using three emissions scenarios were also analysed. Australia shows a shift towards significant warming of temperature extremes with much longer dry spells interspersed with periods of increased extreme precipitation irrespective of the scenario used. More work is required to determine whether regional projected changes over Australia are robust

  18. Analysis and modelling of surface Urban Heat Island in 20 Canadian cities under climate and land-cover change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaur, Abhishek; Eichenbaum, Markus Kalev; Simonovic, Slobodan P

    2018-01-15

    Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) is an urban climate phenomenon that is expected to respond to future climate and land-use land-cover change. It is important to further our understanding of physical mechanisms that govern SUHI phenomenon to enhance our ability to model future SUHI characteristics under changing geophysical conditions. In this study, SUHI phenomenon is quantified and modelled at 20 cities distributed across Canada. By analyzing MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensed surface temperature at the cities over 2002-2012, it is found that 16 out of 20 selected cities have experienced a positive SUHI phenomenon while 4 cities located in the prairies region and high elevation locations have experienced a negative SUHI phenomenon in the past. A statistically significant relationship between observed SUHI magnitude and city elevation is also recorded over the observational period. A Physical Scaling downscaling model is then validated and used to downscale future surface temperature projections from 3 GCMs and 2 extreme Representative Concentration Pathways in the urban and rural areas of the cities. Future changes in SUHI magnitudes between historical (2006-2015) and future timelines: 2030s (2026-2035), 2050s (2046-2055), and 2090s (2091-2100) are estimated. Analysis of future projected changes indicate that 15 (13) out of 20 cities can be expected to experience increases in SUHI magnitudes in future under RCP 2.6 (RCP 8.5). A statistically significant relationship between projected future SUHI change and current size of the cities is also obtained. The study highlights the role of city properties (i.e. its size, elevation, and surrounding land-cover) towards shaping their current and future SUHI characteristics. The results from this analysis will help decision-makers to manage Canadian cities more efficiently under rapidly changing geophysical and demographical conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Mexican drought: an observational modeling and tree ring study of variability and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seager, R.; Ting, M. [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY (United States)]. E-mail: seager@ldeo.columbia.edu; Davis, M. [Department of History, University of California at Irvine, CA (United States); Cane, M.; Naik, N.; Nakamura, J.; Li, C.; Cook, E. [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY (United States); Stahle, D.W. [Tree Ring Laboratory, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas (United States)

    2009-01-15

    Variability of Mexican hydroclimate, with special attention to persistent drought, is examined using observations, model simulations forced by historical sea surface temperature (SST), tree ring reconstructions of past climate and model simulations and projections of naturally and anthropogenically forced climate change. During the winter half year, hydroclimate across Mexico is influenced by the state of the tropical Pacific Ocean with the Atlantic playing little role. Mexican winters tend to be wetter during El Nino conditions. In the summer half year northern Mexico is also wetter when El Nino conditions prevail, but southern Mexico is drier. A warm tropical North Atlantic Ocean makes northern Mexico dry and southern Mexico wet. These relationships are reasonably well reproduced in ensembles of atmosphere model simulations forced by historical SST for the period from 1856 to 2002. Large ensembles of 100 day long integrations are used to examine the day to day evolution of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation in response to a sudden imposition of a El Nino SST anomaly in the summer half year. Kelvin waves propagate east and immediately cause increased column-integrated moisture divergence and reduced precipitation over the tropical Americas and Intra-America Seas. Within a few days a low level high pressure anomaly develops over the Gulf of Mexico. A forced nonlinear model is used to demonstrate that this low is forced by the reduced atmospheric heating over the tropical Atlantic-Intra-America Seas area. Tree ring reconstructions that extend back before the period of instrumental precipitation data coverage are used to verify long model simulations forced by historical SST. The early to mid 1950s drought in northern Mexico appears to have been the most severe since the mid nineteenth century and likely arose as a response to both a multiyear La Nina and a warm tropical North Atlantic. A drought in the 1890s was also severe and appears driven by a

  20. [Observation of osteoclasts on the root surface during human deciduous teeth resorption].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Xiang-jun; Liang, Xing; Chen, Ming; Wang, Hang; Xie, Zhi-gang; Yang, Xiao-yu

    2004-08-01

    To observe osteoclasts on the resorbing surface of human deciduous teeth. After fixing the collected deciduous teeth, we prepared the tooth slices without decalcification, treated them with HE and TRAP dyestuff, and observed the osteoclasts under light and scanning electron microscope. There were large quantity of various forms of overlapping and huge osteoclasts with many nuclei and silk-like protuberances on the resorbing surface of deciduous teeth. The multinucleated osteoclasts align on the surface of coarse dentin. On the resorbing surface of human deciduous teeth there are large amount of osteoclasts which can be used as a source of studying human osteoclast.

  1. CLIMATE CHANGE. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karl, Thomas R; Arguez, Anthony; Huang, Boyin; Lawrimore, Jay H; McMahon, James R; Menne, Matthew J; Peterson, Thomas C; Vose, Russell S; Zhang, Huai-Min

    2015-06-26

    Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming "hiatus." Here, we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a "slowdown" in the increase of global surface temperature. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  2. Observing upper troposphere-lower stratosphere climate with radio occultation data from the CHAMP satellite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foelsche, Ulrich; Borsche, Michael; Steiner, Andrea K.; Gobiet, Andreas; Pirscher, Barbara; Kirchengast, Gottfried [University of Graz, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WegCenter) and Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics, and Meteorology (IGAM), Graz (Austria); Wickert, Jens; Schmidt, Torsten [GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam (GFZ), Potsdam (Germany)

    2008-07-15

    High quality observations of the atmosphere are particularly required for monitoring global climate change. Radio occultation (RO) data, using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals, are well suited for this challenge. The special climate utility of RO data arises from their long-term stability due to their self-calibrated nature. The German research satellite CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload for geoscientific research (CHAMP) continuously records RO profiles since August 2001 providing the first opportunity to create RO based climatologies for a multi-year period of more than 5 years. A period of missing CHAMP data from July 3, 2006 to August 8, 2006 can be bridged with RO data from the GRACE satellite (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment). We have built seasonal and zonal mean climatologies of atmospheric (dry) temperature, microwave refractivity, geopotential height and pressure with 10 latitudinal resolution. We show representative results with focus on dry temperatures and compare them with analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Although we have available only about 150 CHAMP profiles per day (compared to millions of data entering the ECMWF analyses) the overall agreement between 8 and 30 km altitude is in general very good with systematic differences <0.5 K in most parts of the domain. Pronounced systematic differences (exceeding 2 K) in the tropical tropopause region and above Antarctica in southern winter can almost entirely be attributed to errors in the ECMWF analyses. Errors resulting from uneven sampling in space and time are a potential error source for single-satellite climatologies. The average CHAMP sampling error for seasonal zonal means is <0.2 K, higher values occur in restricted regions and time intervals which can be clearly identified by the sampling error estimation approach we introduced (which is based on ECMWF analysis fields). The total error of this new type of temperature

  3. What do the data show? Fostering physical intuition with ClimateBits and NASA Earth Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schollaert Uz, S.; Ward, K.

    2017-12-01

    Through data visualizations using global satellite imagery available in NASA Earth Observations (NEO), we explain Earth science concepts (e.g. albedo, urban heat island effect, phytoplankton). We also provide examples of ways to explore the satellite data in NEO within a new blog series. This is an ideal tool for scientists and non-scientists alike who want to quickly check satellite imagery for large scale features or patterns. NEO analysis requires no software or plug-ins; only a browser and an internet connection. You can even check imagery and perform simple analyses from your smart phone. NEO can be used to create graphics for presentations and papers or as a first step before acquiring data for more rigorous analysis. NEO has potential application to easily explore large scale environmental and climate patterns that impact operations and infrastructure. This is something we are currently exploring with end user groups.

  4. Effects of climate change on surface-water photochemistry: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Laurentiis, Elisa; Minella, Marco; Maurino, Valter; Minero, Claudio; Vione, Davide

    2014-10-01

    Information concerning the link between surface-water photochemistry and climate is presently very scarce as only a few studies have been dedicated to the subject. On the basis of the limited knowledge that is currently available, the present inferences can be made as follows: (1) Warming can cause enhanced leaching of ionic solutes from the catchments to surface waters, including cations and more biologically labile anions such as sulphate. Preferential sulphate biodegradation followed by removal as organic sulphides in sediment could increase alkalinity, favouring the generation of the carbonate radical, CO3 (·-). However, this phenomenon would be easily offset by fluctuations of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC), which is strongly anticorrelated with CO3 (·-). Therefore, obtaining insight into DOC evolution is a key issue in understanding the link between photochemistry and climate. (2) Climate change could exacerbate water scarcity in the dry season in some regions. Fluctuations in the water column could deeply alter photochemistry that is usually favoured in shallower waters. However, the way water is lost would strongly affect the prevailing photoinduced processes. Water outflow without important changes in solute concentration would mostly favour reactions induced by the hydroxyl and carbonate radicals (·OH and CO3 (·-)). In contrast, evaporative concentration would enhance reactions mediated by singlet oxygen ((1)O2) and by the triplet states of chromophoric dissolved organic matter ((3)CDOM*). (3) In a warmer climate, the summer stratification period of lakes would last longer, thereby enhancing photochemical reactions in the epilimnion but at the same time keeping the hypolimnion water in the dark for longer periods.

  5. A Climate Data Record of Near-Surface Over-Ocean Parameters and Air-Sea Fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clayson, C. A.; Brown, J.

    2015-12-01

    In this climate data record, we have derived surface and near-surface parameters of wind speed, temperature, and humidity from a combination of satellite observations, with a focus on the use of these variables towards determination of the air-sea turbulent heat fluxes. The dataset is a follow-on to the CDR SeaFlux v 1 dataset, which currently covers the time period of 1988 through 2008, and the variables of sea surface temperature and 10-m temperature, wind speed, and specific humidity at a 3-hourly, 0.25º resolution over the global oceans. These products have been developed for the specific focus of accurate determination of the surface turbulent fluxes. The current dataset is brought forward to short latency (roughly three months) by adding in SSMIS data. This talk will discuss the additional issues associated with including the much-noisier SSMIS data, comparisons of uncertainties from the time period of the SSMIS as compared to the SSMI era, and an analysis of interannual variability over the time period from 1988 through 2015, including the recent ENSO variability.

  6. Instantaneous Linkages between Clouds and Large-Scale Meteorology over the Southern Ocean in Observations and a Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wall, Casey J. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Hartmann, Dennis L. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Ma, Po-Lun [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

    2017-12-01

    Instantaneous, coincident, footprint-level satellite observations of cloud properties and radiation taken during austral summer over the Southern Ocean are used to study relationships between clouds and large-scale meteorology. Cloud properties are very sensitive to the strength of vertical motion in the middle-troposphere, and low-cloud properties are sensitive to estimated inversion strength, low-level temperature advection, and sea surface temperature. These relationships are quantified. An index for the meteorological anomalies associated with midlatitude cyclones is presented, and it is used to reveal the sensitivity of clouds to the meteorology within the warm- and cold-sector of cyclones. The observed relationships between clouds and meteorology are compared to those in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) using satellite simulators. Low-clouds simulated by CAM5 are too few, too bright, and contain too much ice, and low-clouds located in the cold-sector of cyclones are too sensitive to variations in the meteorology. The latter two biases are dramatically reduced when CAM5 is coupled with an updated boundary layer parameterization know as Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB). More generally, this study demonstrates that examining the instantaneous timescale is a powerful approach to understanding the physical processes that control clouds and how they are represented in climate models. Such an evaluation goes beyond the cloud climatology and exposes model bias under various meteorological conditions.

  7. Precipitation extremes over La Plata Basin – Review and new results from observations and climate simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cavalcanti, I. F. A.; Carril, A. F.; Penalba, O. C.; Grimm, A. M.; Menéndez, C. G.; Sanchez, E.; Cherchi, A.; Sörensson, A.; Robledo, F.; Rivera, J.; Pántano, V.; Bettolli, L. M.; Zaninelli, P.; Zamboni, L.; Tedeschi, R. G.; Dominguez, M.; Ruscica, R.; Flach, R.

    2015-04-01

    Monthly and daily precipitation extremes over La Plata Basin (LPB) are analyzed in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB Project. A review of the studies developed during the project and results of additional research are presented and discussed. Specific aspects of analysis are focused on large-scale versus local processes impacts on the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes over LPB, and on the assessment of specific wet and dry spell indices and their changed characteristics in future climate scenarios. The analysis is shown for both available observations of precipitation in the region and ad-hoc global and regional models experiments. The Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans can all impact precipitation intensity and frequency over LPB. In particular, considering the Pacific sector, different types of ENSO events (i.e. canonical vs Modoki or East vs Central) have different influences. Moreover, model projections indicate an increase in the frequency of precipitation extremes over LPB during El Niño and La Ninã events in future climate. Local forcings can also be important for precipitation extremes. Here, the feedbacks between soil moisture and extreme precipitation in LPB are discussed based on hydric conditions in the region and model sensitivity experiments. Concerning droughts, it was found that they were more frequent in the western than in the eastern sector of LPB during the period of 1962–2008. On the other hand, observations and model experiments agree in that the monthly wet extremes were more frequent than the dry extremes in the northern and southern LPB sectors during the period 1979–2001, with higher frequency in the south.

  8. Precipitation extremes over La Plata Basin - Review and new results from observations and climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalcanti, I. F. A.; Carril, A. F.; Penalba, O. C.; Grimm, A. M.; Menéndez, C. G.; Sanchez, E.; Cherchi, A.; Sörensson, A.; Robledo, F.; Rivera, J.; Pántano, V.; Bettolli, L. M.; Zaninelli, P.; Zamboni, L.; Tedeschi, R. G.; Dominguez, M.; Ruscica, R.; Flach, R.

    2015-04-01

    Monthly and daily precipitation extremes over La Plata Basin (LPB) are analyzed in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB Project. A review of the studies developed during the project and results of additional research are presented and discussed. Specific aspects of analysis are focused on large-scale versus local processes impacts on the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes over LPB, and on the assessment of specific wet and dry spell indices and their changed characteristics in future climate scenarios. The analysis is shown for both available observations of precipitation in the region and ad-hoc global and regional models experiments. The Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans can all impact precipitation intensity and frequency over LPB. In particular, considering the Pacific sector, different types of ENSO events (i.e. canonical vs Modoki or East vs Central) have different influences. Moreover, model projections indicate an increase in the frequency of precipitation extremes over LPB during El Niño and La Ninã events in future climate. Local forcings can also be important for precipitation extremes. Here, the feedbacks between soil moisture and extreme precipitation in LPB are discussed based on hydric conditions in the region and model sensitivity experiments. Concerning droughts, it was found that they were more frequent in the western than in the eastern sector of LPB during the period of 1962-2008. On the other hand, observations and model experiments agree in that the monthly wet extremes were more frequent than the dry extremes in the northern and southern LPB sectors during the period 1979-2001, with higher frequency in the south.

  9. Evaluation of precipitation in observations, reanalysis and climate models over the Himalayas from an agricultural point of view.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daloz, A. S.; Chakraborty, R.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.

    2015-12-01

    The Himalayas support the agricultural and water resource needs of over 2 billion people. According to some reports the impacts of climate change in the region may be catastrophic so, there is an urgent need for better understanding the impact of climate change on this region, especially on agricultural production, which is the primary livelihood of the population. However, the region is known for its unique landscape and complicated biophysical and socioeconomic systems. This complexity is a source of difficulty for obtaining both reliable observations and realistic predictions of future climate in the region. The ultimate aim of our inter-disciplinary research project is to couple disparate climate and agro-ecosystem models to understand how future changes in precipitation may impact agriculture in the Himalayas. The project is divided into two parts: Quantify the response of precipitation to climate change in state-of-the-art climate model simulations, Evaluate the impact of projected future changes in precipitation on agricultural production with an agro-ecosystem model. For the first part of the project we evaluated the ability of climate models to represent the present climate of this region. Climate model output was compared against precipitation observations from ground stations, satellites, and atmospheric reanalyses to document the biases of the models and evaluate objectively the future changes in precipitation. After evaluating the biases of our models, climate model predictions of precipitation changes over the Himalayas were quantified. The models clearly show a significant increase in precipitation over a large part of the region, especially during the monsoon season and the season preceding the monsoon. The second component of the study seeks to introduce these precipitation changes into an agro-ecosystem model. This model, that contains multiple dynamic variables with regulate-able stochasticity and will allow us to visualize probable impacts of

  10. Quality assessment of atmospheric surface fields over the Baltic Sea from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations with respect to ocean dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. E. Markus Meier

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate model results for the Baltic Sea region from an ensemble of eight simulations using the Rossby Centre Atmosphere model version 3 (RCA3 driven with lateral boundary data from global climate models (GCMs are compared with results from a downscaled ERA40 simulation and gridded observations from 1980-2006. The results showed that data from RCA3 scenario simulations should not be used as forcing for Baltic Sea models in climate change impact studies because biases of the control climate significantly affect the simulated changes of future projections. For instance, biases of the sea ice cover in RCA3 in the present climate affect the sensitivity of the model's response to changing climate due to the ice-albedo feedback. From the large ensemble of available RCA3 scenario simulations two GCMs with good performance in downscaling experiments during the control period 1980-2006 were selected. In this study, only the quality of atmospheric surface fields over the Baltic Sea was chosen as a selection criterion. For the greenhouse gas emission scenario A1B two transient simulations for 1961-2100 driven by these two GCMs were performed using the regional, fully coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean model RCAO. It was shown that RCAO has the potential to improve the results in downscaling experiments driven by GCMs considerably, because sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations are calculated more realistically with RCAO than when RCA3 has been forced with surface boundary data from GCMs. For instance, the seasonal 2 m air temperature cycle is closer to observations in RCAO than in RCA3 downscaling simulations. However, the parameterizations of air-sea fluxes in RCAO need to be improved.

  11. Flow-dependent assimilation of sea surface temperature in isopycnal coordinates with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François Counillon

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We document a pilot stochastic re-analysis computed by assimilating sea surface temperature (SST anomalies into the ocean component of the coupled Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM for the period 1950–2010 (doi: 10.11582/2016.00002. NorCPM is based on the Norwegian Earth System Model and uses the ensemble Kalman filter for data assimilation (DA. Here, we assimilate SST from the stochastic HadISST2 historical reconstruction. The accuracy, reliability and drift are investigated using both assimilated and independent observations. NorCPM is slightly overdispersive against assimilated observations but shows stable performance through the analysis period. It demonstrates skills against independent measurements: sea surface height, heat and salt content, in particular in the Equatorial and North Pacific, the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG region and the Nordic Seas. Furthermore, NorCPM provides a reliable monitoring of the SPG index and represents the vertical temperature variability there, in good agreement with observations. The monitoring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is also encouraging. The benefit of using a flow-dependent assimilation method and constructing the covariance in isopycnal coordinates are investigated in the SPG region. Isopycnal coordinates discretisation is found to better capture the vertical structure than standard depth-coordinate discretisation, because it leads to a deeper influence of the assimilated surface observations. The vertical covariance shows a pronounced seasonal and decadal variability that highlights the benefit of flow-dependent DA method. This study demonstrates the potential of NorCPM to compute an ocean re-analysis for the 19th and 20th centuries when SST observations are available.

  12. Modeling Surface Climate in US Cities Using Simple Biosphere Model Sib2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ping; Bounoua, Lahouari; Thome, Kurtis; Wolfe, Robert; Imhoff, Marc

    2015-01-01

    We combine Landsat- and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based products in the Simple Biosphere model (SiB2) to assess the effects of urbanized land on the continental US (CONUS) surface climate. Using National Land Cover Database (NLCD) Impervious Surface Area (ISA), we define more than 300 urban settlements and their surrounding suburban and rural areas over the CONUS. The SiB2 modeled Gross Primary Production (GPP) over the CONUS of 7.10 PgC (1 PgC= 10(exp 15) grams of Carbon) is comparable to the MODIS improved GPP of 6.29 PgC. At state level, SiB2 GPP is highly correlated with MODIS GPP with a correlation coefficient of 0.94. An increasing horizontal GPP gradient is shown from the urban out to the rural area, with, on average, rural areas fixing 30% more GPP than urbans. Cities built in forested biomes have stronger UHI magnitude than those built in short vegetation with low biomass. Mediterranean climate cities have a stronger UHI in wet season than dry season. Our results also show that for urban areas built within forests, 39% of the precipitation is discharged as surface runoff during summer versus 23% in rural areas.

  13. The magnitudes and timescales of global mean surface temperature feedbacks in climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Jarvis

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Because of the fundamental role feedbacks play in determining the response of surface temperature to perturbations in radiative forcing, it is important we understand the dynamic characteristics of these feedbacks. Rather than attribute the aggregate surface temperature feedback to particular physical processes, this paper adopts a linear systems approach to investigate the partitioning with respect to the timescale of the feedbacks regulating global mean surface temperature in climate models. The analysis reveals that there is a dominant net negative feedback realised on an annual timescale and that this is partially attenuated by a spectrum of positive feedbacks with characteristic timescales in the range 10 to 1000 yr. This attenuation was composed of two discrete phases which are attributed to the equilibration of "diffusive – mixed layer" and "circulatory – deep ocean" ocean heat uptake. The diffusive equilibration was associated with time constants on the decadal timescale and accounted for approximately 75 to 80 percent of the overall ocean heat feedback, whilst the circulatory equilibration operated on a centennial timescale and accounted for the remaining 20 to 25 perce