WorldWideScience

Sample records for surface climate anomalies

  1. Evolution of anomalies of salinity of surface waters of Arctic Ocean and their possible influence on climate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popov, A.; Rubchenia, A.

    2009-04-01

    flaw lead polynyas there is a reduction of average salinity of surface waters of Arctic basin. In the winter period obvious influence of waters of a river runoff on a hydrological situation of this or that sea is limited to a zone of distribution of fast ice and a narrow zone of flaw lead polynyas between fast ice and drift ice. That fresh water from the Arctic seas is transferred in the Arctic basin. There should be a certain effective mechanism to carry it. Presence of clear interrelation of salinity of surface waters and volumes of ice formed in polynyas, allows us to offer the following circuit of formation of average salinity of surface waters in the Arctic basin. The ice formed in polynya, is constantly taken out for limits of an area of flaw lead polynyas. This ice accumulates the fresh water acting with a river runoff. New ice hummocking and accumulate snow - the next source of fresh water. In the summer period ice is melting and forms surface fresh layer. In the cold period of year, presence of thick ice not allows accumulating all fresh water, and the zone of fresh water is forming. These fresh water areas could exist for months. In the reports [1] was offered a hypothesis describing formation of distant connections in climatic system. In the hypothesis offered by us about a role of polynyas in formation of distant feedback in climatic system the most important and, unfortunately, the least certain parameter is «reaching time» of climatic signal from a place of origin (in flaw lead polynya area) up to the Greenland sea and Northern Atlantic. For an estimation of reaching time» we tried to trace drift of this anomaly from polynyas to Greenland Sea. For the initial moment of anomaly genesis month of the maximal development of polynya (when ice production of it was maximal) was chosen. Core of freshwater anomaly was determined for several polynyas. Using results of our simulations, data from database with areas of polynyas, wind stress data and current speed

  2. Weather anomalies affect Climate Change microblogging intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.

    2012-12-01

    There is a huge gap between the scientific consensus and public understanding of climate change. Climate change has become a political issue and a "hot" topic in mass media that only adds the complexity to forming the public opinion. Scientists operate in scientific terms, not necessarily understandable by general public, while it is common for people to perceive the latest weather anomaly as an evidence of climate change. In 1998 Hansen et al. introduced a concept of an objectively measured subjective climate change indicator, which can relate public feeling that the climate is changing to the observed meteorological parameters. We tested this concept in a simple example of a temperature-based index, which we related to microblogging activity. Microblogging is a new form of communication in which the users describe their current status in short Internet messages. Twitter (http://twitter.com), is currently the most popular microblogging platform. There are multiple reasons, why this data is particularly valuable to the researches interested in social dynamics: microblogging is widely used to publicize one's opinion with the public; has broad, diverse audience, represented by users from many countries speaking different languages; finally, Twitter contains an enormous number of data, e.g., there were 1,284,579 messages related to climate change from 585,168 users in the January-May data collection. We collected the textual data entries, containing words "climate change" or "global warming" from the 1st of January, 2012. The data was retrieved from the Internet every 20 minutes using a specially developed Python code. Using geolocational information, blog entries originating from the New York urbanized area were selected. These entries, used as a source of public opinion on climate change, were related to the surface temperature, obtained from La Guardia airport meteorological station. We defined the "significant change" in the temperature index as deviation of the

  3. Climatic anomaly affects the immune competence of California sea lions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Banuet-Martínez

    Full Text Available The past decades have been characterized by a growing number of climatic anomalies. As these anomalies tend to occur suddenly and unexpectedly, it is often difficult to procure empirical evidence of their effects on natural populations. We analysed how the recent sea surface temperature (SST anomaly in the northeastern Pacific Ocean affects body condition, nutritional status, and immune competence of California sea lion pups. We found that pup body condition and blood glucose levels of the pups were lower during high SST events, although other biomarkers of malnutrition remained unchanged, suggesting that pups were experiencing early stages of starvation. Glucose-dependent immune responses were affected by the SST anomaly; specifically, pups born during high SST events had lower serum concentrations of IgG and IgA, and were unable to respond to an immune challenge. This means that not only were pups that were born during the SST anomaly less able to synthesize protective antibodies; they were also limited in their ability to respond rapidly to nonspecific immune challenges. Our study provides empirical evidence that atypical climatic conditions can limit energetic reserves and compromise physiological responses that are essential for the survival of a marine top predator.

  4. A 1200 Year Alkenone-based Reconstruction of Sea Surface Temperature and Marine Productivity in the Southern California Current System from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to Present

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Mara, N. A.; Kelly, C. S.; Herbert, T.

    2017-12-01

    Laminated sediment cores taken from the San Lazaro Basin (SLB) (25.18N, 112.66W) located off the coast of Baja California in the subtropical eastern Pacific were geochemically analyzed for alkenone and sterol biomarkers to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) and marine productivity from 850-1980 CE. High sedimentation rates, low bottom water dissolved oxygen, and high marine productivity in combination with the San Lazaro Basin's location within the dynamic transition zone between the tropical and subtropical eastern Pacific, make it a prime location to study variability of tropical and subtropical modes of climate variability. This study focuses on the impacts and variability of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the subtropical eastern Pacific. SST and coccolithophore productivity (n=730) for 2 mm sections of sediment corresponding to 1 measurement every 1.8 years were reconstructed using the Uk'37 unsaturation index and C37 alkenone concentration. The high resolution of this record allowed for the analysis of variability of SST and productivity on decadal timescales. Brassicasterol concentrations were calculated for a limited number of samples (n=44) to assess diatom productivity. High spectral power was found at periods of 20-30 years in SST and productivity records indicating a strong influence of the PDO on the SLB, making this the first marine based record directly relevant to PDO reconstructions that continuously spans the last millennium. Cool and productive (warm and less productive) waters were observed in the southern California Current in the Medieval Climate Anomaly 900-1200 CE (Little Ice Age 1400-1800 CE) supporting previous reconstructions that warmer (cooler) SST are linked to both reduced (enhanced) phytoplankton productivity. Additionally, cool (warm) SST were also associated with dry (wet) conditions in the American Southwest indicating that changes in the PDO has had a significant impact on drought

  5. Decadal climate prediction with a refined anomaly initialisation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpi, Danila; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Hawkins, Ed; Nichols, Nancy K.

    2017-03-01

    In decadal prediction, the objective is to exploit both the sources of predictability from the external radiative forcings and from the internal variability to provide the best possible climate information for the next decade. Predicting the climate system internal variability relies on initialising the climate model from observational estimates. We present a refined method of anomaly initialisation (AI) applied to the ocean and sea ice components of the global climate forecast model EC-Earth, with the following key innovations: (1) the use of a weight applied to the observed anomalies, in order to avoid the risk of introducing anomalies recorded in the observed climate, whose amplitude does not fit in the range of the internal variability generated by the model; (2) the AI of the ocean density, instead of calculating it from the anomaly initialised state of temperature and salinity. An experiment initialised with this refined AI method has been compared with a full field and standard AI experiment. Results show that the use of such refinements enhances the surface temperature skill over part of the North and South Atlantic, part of the South Pacific and the Mediterranean Sea for the first forecast year. However, part of such improvement is lost in the following forecast years. For the tropical Pacific surface temperature, the full field initialised experiment performs the best. The prediction of the Arctic sea-ice volume is improved by the refined AI method for the first three forecast years and the skill of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is significantly increased compared to a non-initialised forecast, along the whole forecast time.

  6. Climatic anomalies in Northern South China Sea during 1986-1987 El Nino

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen Tegu (Academia Sinica, Beijing (China)); Zhou Qiang

    1990-05-01

    In this paper, the climatic anomalies in Northern South China Sea (NSCS) during 1986-1987 El Nino were analyzed according to meteorological and hydrographic observation data. The results showed that the most apparent anomalies were: (1) continuously weaker monsoon strength, (2) continuously much higher South China Sea High Pressure strength; (3) in 1987 only six typhoons occurred in NSCS (four less than normal), with the first typhoon occurring on 25 June, (about one month later than usual); (4) positive air temperature anomaly, negative annual precipitation and evaporation anomaly; (5) sea surface temperature and surface salinity anomaly was positive; (6) monthly mean sea level was 1 to 10cm lower than normal.

  7. Winter to winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia and its impact on winter surface air temperature anomalies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xia; Yang, Guang

    2017-01-01

    The persistence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia shows a winter to winter recurrence (WTWR) phenomenon. Seasonal variations in sea level pressure anomalies and surface wind anomalies display significantly different characteristics between WTWR and non-WTWR years. The WTWR years are characterized by the recurrence of both a strong (weak) anomalous Siberian High and an East Asian winter monsoon over two successive winters without persistence through the intervening summer. However, anomalies during the non-WTWR years have the opposite sign between the current and ensuing winters. The WTWR of circulation anomalies contributes to that of surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs), which is useful information for improving seasonal and interannual climate predictions over East Asia and China. In the positive (negative) WTWR years, SATAs are cooler (warmer) over East Asia in two successive winters, but the signs of the SATAs are opposite in the preceding and subsequent winters during the non-WTWR years.

  8. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.

    temperature anomalies for the above regions respectively. An analysis has shown that most of the short duration anomalies (i.e., anomalies with periods less than 4 months) are driven by the surface heat fluxes. The medium duration anomalies (i.e., anomalies...

  9. Topology of Fermi surfaces and anomaly inflows

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adem, Alejandro; Camarena, Omar Antolín [Department of Mathematics, University of British Columbia,1984 Mathematics Road, Vancouver, V6T 1Z2 (Canada); Semenoff, Gordon W. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of British Columbia,6224 Agricultural Road, Vancouver, V6T 1Z1 (Canada); Sheinbaum, Daniel [Department of Mathematics, University of British Columbia,1984 Mathematics Road, Vancouver, V6T 1Z2 (Canada)

    2016-11-14

    We derive a rigorous classification of topologically stable Fermi surfaces of non-interacting, discrete translation-invariant systems from electronic band theory, adiabatic evolution and their topological interpretations. For systems on an infinite crystal it is shown that there can only be topologically unstable Fermi surfaces. For systems on a half-space and with a gapped bulk, our derivation naturally yields a K-theory classification. Given the d−1-dimensional surface Brillouin zone X{sub s} of a d-dimensional half-space, our result implies that different classes of globally stable Fermi surfaces belong in K{sup −1}(X{sub s}) for systems with only discrete translation-invariance. This result has a chiral anomaly inflow interpretation, as it reduces to the spectral flow for d=2. Through equivariant homotopy methods we extend these results for symmetry classes AI, AII, C and D and discuss their corresponding anomaly inflow interpretation.

  10. Effect of Warm Atlantic Waters on the Climate Anomalies in the West Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Zolotokrylin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Significant climatic changes of oceanic and atmospheric elements and a relation of them to the ocean surface winter anomalies in North Atlantic are analyzed in the paper. Periods of «warm» ocean (2002–2012 and «cold» ocean (1960–1970 were determined. Positive anomalies of the ocean surface temperature increase the ice-free water area and, correspondingly, decrease the ice-field area. As a result of such changes in a state of the ocean surface (open water and ice, surface air temperature rises, and, consequently, atmospheric pressure in central part of a given Arctic sector drops.

  11. Symmetric scaling properties in global surface air temperature anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varotsos, Costas A.; Efstathiou, Maria N.

    2015-08-01

    We have recently suggested "long-term memory" or internal long-range correlation within the time-series of land-surface air temperature (LSAT) anomalies in both hemispheres. For example, an increasing trend in the LSAT anomalies is followed by another one at a different time in a power-law fashion. However, our previous research was mainly focused on the overall long-term persistence, while in the present study, the upward and downward scaling dynamics of the LSAT anomalies are analysed, separately. Our results show that no significant fluctuation differences were found between the increments and decrements in LSAT anomalies, over the whole Earth and over each hemisphere, individually. On the contrary, the combination of land-surface air and sea-surface water temperature anomalies seemed to cause a departure from symmetry and the increments in the land and sea surface temperature anomalies appear to be more persistent than the decrements.

  12. Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006 – 2007

    OpenAIRE

    Tucker Compton J; Small Jennifer; Chretien Jean-Paul; Anyamba Assaf; Linthicum Kenneth J

    2006-01-01

    Abstract Background El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hem...

  13. Support for global climate reorganization during the ''Medieval Climate Anomaly''

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graham, N.E. [Hydrologic Research Center, San Diego, CA (United States); Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA (United States); Ammann, C.M. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Fleitmann, D. [University of Bern, Institute of Geological Sciences, Bern (Switzerland); University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climatic Change Research, Bern (Switzerland); Cobb, K.M. [Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States); Luterbacher, J. [Justus-Liebig-University, Giessen (Germany)

    2011-09-15

    Widely distributed proxy records indicate that the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; {proportional_to}900-1350 AD) was characterized by coherent shifts in large-scale Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation patterns. Although cooler sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific can explain some aspects of medieval circulation changes, they are not sufficient to account for other notable features, including widespread aridity through the Eurasian sub-tropics, stronger winter westerlies across the North Atlantic and Western Europe, and shifts in monsoon rainfall patterns across Africa and South Asia. We present results from a full-physics coupled climate model showing that a slight warming of the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans relative to the other tropical ocean basins can induce a broad range of the medieval circulation and climate changes indicated by proxy data, including many of those not explained by a cooler tropical Pacific alone. Important aspects of the results resemble those from previous simulations examining the climatic response to the rapid Indian Ocean warming during the late twentieth century, and to results from climate warming simulations - especially in indicating an expansion of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation. Notably, the pattern of tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) change responsible for producing the proxy-model similarity in our results agrees well with MCA-LIA SST differences obtained in a recent proxy-based climate field reconstruction. Though much remains unclear, our results indicate that the MCA was characterized by an enhanced zonal Indo-Pacific SST gradient with resulting changes in Northern Hemisphere tropical and extra-tropical circulation patterns and hydroclimate regimes, linkages that may explain the coherent regional climate shifts indicated by proxy records from across the planet. The findings provide new perspectives on the nature and possible causes of the MCA

  14. Analysis of Anomaly in Land Surface Temperature Using MODIS Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yorozu, K.; Kodama, T.; Kim, S.; Tachikawa, Y.; Shiiba, M.

    2011-12-01

    Atmosphere-land surface interaction plays a dominant role on the hydrologic cycle. Atmospheric phenomena cause variation of land surface state and land surface state can affect on atmosphereic conditions. Widely-known article related in atmospheric-land interaction was published by Koster et al. in 2004. The context of this article is that seasonal anomaly in soil moisture or soil surface temperature can affect summer precipitation generation and other atmospheric processes especially in middle North America, Sahel and south Asia. From not only above example but other previous research works, it is assumed that anomaly of surface state has a key factor. To investigate atmospheric-land surface interaction, it is necessary to analyze anomaly field in land surface state. In this study, soil surface temperature should be focused because it can be globally and continuously observed by satellite launched sensor. To land surface temperature product, MOD11C1 and MYD11C1 products which are kinds of MODIS products are applied. Both of them have 0.05 degree spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution. The difference of them is launched satellite, MOD11C1 is Terra and MYD11C1 is Aqua. MOD11C1 covers the latter of 2000 to present and MYD11C1 covers the early 2002 to present. There are unrealistic values on provided products even if daily product was already calibrated or corrected. For pre-analyzing, daily data is aggregated into 8-days data to remove irregular values for stable analysis. It was found that there are spatial and temporal distribution of 10-years average and standard deviation for each 8-days term. In order to point out extreme anomaly in land surface temperature, standard score for each 8-days term is applied. From the analysis of standard score, it is found there are large anomaly in land surface temperature around north China plain in early April 2005 and around Bangladesh in early May 2009.

  15. Anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bardeen, W.A.

    1985-08-01

    Anomalies have a diverse impact on many aspects of physical phenomena. The role of anomalies in determining physical structure from the amplitude for π 0 decay to the foundations of superstring theory will be reviewed. 36 refs

  16. Temperature Anomalies from the AIRS Product in Giovanni for the Climate Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Feng; Hearty, Thomas J.; Wei, Jennifer; Theobald, Michael; Vollmer, Bruce; Seiler, Edward; Meyer, David

    2018-01-01

    The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) mission began with the launch of Aqua in 2002. Over 15 years of AIRS products have been used by the climate research and application communities. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), in collaboration with NASA Sounder Team at JPL, provides processing, archiving, and distribution services for NASA sounders: the present Aqua AIRS mission and the succeeding Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (SNPP) Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) mission. We generated a Multi-year Monthly Mean and Anomaly product using 14 years of AIRS standard monthly product. The product includes Air Temperature at the Surface and Surface Skin Temperature, both in Ascending/Daytime and Descending/Nighttime mode. The temperature variables and their anomalies are deployed to Giovanni, a Web-based application developed by the GES DISC. Giovanni provides a simple and intuitive way to visualize, analyze, and access vast amounts of Earth science remote sensing data without having to download the data. It is also a powerful tool that stakeholders can use for decision support in planning and preparing for increased climate variability. In this presentation, we demonstrate the functions in Giovanni with use cases employing AIRS Multi-year Monthly Mean and Anomaly variables.

  17. Regional monitoring of environmental physics climate related anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Askary, Hesham

    2004-11-01

    Scientific communities have been working in creating and enhancing scientific research programs in which in situ and satellite data as well as remote sensing (RS) technologies are being applied to regional environmental issues. These issues include the effects of climate change on regional flooding, droughts and the impact of human activities as they relate to feedbacks on the global climate. More specifically, one needs to evaluate the potential impact of climatological variability on social, economic, and human activities. In addition, the study of their effects on agriculture, forests, local natural ecosystems and water climate-related resources, is most important. Finally, dust storms and other natural events such as droughts can have great local impacts. Approximately half of the dust in today's atmosphere may be the result of changes to the environment caused by human activities, including agriculture, overgrazing, and deforestation. Climate variability may lead to the occurrence of some severe environmental phenomena like dust storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and droughts. Under normal conditions we can detect different dust effects associated with the movement of storms as well as different rain patterns that do not affect much of the surrounding environment either at regional or global scales. On the other hand, under abnormal climatological conditions, high anomalies of precipitation might occur due to the presence of hurricanes or other events, leading to severe flooding events. In this dissertation, we apply time series analysis techniques to remote sensing and in situ data to detect precipitation and dust storm anomalies and study their behavior on regional scales. The first application is the detection and monitoring of dust storms events over parts of the Middle East and Asia. Dust storms cause health and economic hazards. In this thesis dust storms development is examined based on using remote sensing. It utilizes a combination of optical

  18. Calculated surface-energy anomaly in the 3d metals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aldén, M.; Skriver, Hans Lomholt; Mirbt, S.

    1992-01-01

    Local-spin-density theory and a Green’s-function technique based on the linear muffin-tin orbitals method have been used to calculate the surface energy of the 3d metals. The theory explains the variation of the values derived from measurements of the surface tension of liquid metals including...... the pronounced anomaly occurring between vanadium and nickel in terms of a decrease in the d contribution caused by spin polarization....

  19. Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anyamba, Assaf; Chretien, Jean-Paul; Small, Jennifer; Tucker, Compton J; Linthicum, Kenneth J

    2006-12-28

    El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We describe developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks using satellite generated data. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July - October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 - January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications are that the following regions are at increased

  20. Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006 – 2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tucker Compton J

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We describe developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks using satellite generated data. Results Sea surface temperatures (SSTs in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July – October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 – January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications

  1. Interannual tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies teleconnection to Northern Hemisphere atmosphere in November

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Martin P.; Herceg-Bulić, Ivana; Kucharski, Fred; Keenlyside, Noel

    2018-03-01

    We investigate the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation anomalies associated to the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that are related to the eastern-Pacific and central-Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillations in the late autumn (November). This research is motivated by the need for improving understanding of the autumn climate conditions which can impact on winter climate, as well as the relative lack of study on the boreal autumn climate processes compared to winter. Using reanalysis and SST datasets available from the late nineteenth century through the recent years, we found that there are two major atmospheric responses; one is a hemispheric-wide wave number-4 pattern, another has a more annular pattern. Both of these project on the East Atlantic pattern (southward-shifted North Atlantic Oscillation) in the Atlantic sector. Which of the patterns is active is suggested to depend on the background mean flow, with the annular anomaly active in the most recent decades, while the wave-4 pattern in the decades before. This switch is associated with a change of correlation sign in the North Pacific. We discuss the robustness of this finding. The ability of two atmospheric general circulation models (ICTP-AGCM and ECHAM-AGCM) to reproduce the teleconnections is also examined. Evidence provided shows that the wave-4 pattern and the East Atlantic pattern signals can be reproduced by the models, while the shift from this to an annular response for the recent years is not found conclusively.

  2. An updated global grid point surface air temperature anomaly data set: 1851--1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sepanski, R.J.; Boden, T.A.; Daniels, R.C.

    1991-10-01

    This document presents land-based monthly surface air temperature anomalies (departures from a 1951--1970 reference period mean) on a 5{degree} latitude by 10{degree} longitude global grid. Monthly surface air temperature anomalies (departures from a 1957--1975 reference period mean) for the Antarctic (grid points from 65{degree}S to 85{degree}S) are presented in a similar way as a separate data set. The data were derived primarily from the World Weather Records and the archives of the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. This long-term record of temperature anomalies may be used in studies addressing possible greenhouse-gas-induced climate changes. To date, the data have been employed in generating regional, hemispheric, and global time series for determining whether recent (i.e., post-1900) warming trends have taken place. This document also presents the monthly mean temperature records for the individual stations that were used to generate the set of gridded anomalies. The periods of record vary by station. Northern Hemisphere station data have been corrected for inhomogeneities, while Southern Hemisphere data are presented in uncorrected form. 14 refs., 11 figs., 10 tabs.

  3. Regional seasonal warming anomalies and land-surface feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffel, E.; Horton, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Significant seasonal variations in warming are projected in some regions, especially central Europe, the southeastern U.S., and central South America. Europe in particular may experience up to 2°C more warming during June, July, and August than in the annual mean, enhancing the risk of extreme summertime heat. Previous research has shown that heat waves in Europe and other regions are tied to seasonal soil moisture variations, and that in general land-surface feedbacks have a strong effect on seasonal temperature anomalies. In this study, we show that the seasonal anomalies in warming are also due in part to land-surface feedbacks. We find that in regions with amplified warming during the hot season, surface soil moisture levels generally decline and Bowen ratios increase as a result of a preferential partitioning of incoming energy into sensible vs. latent. The CMIP5 model suite shows significant variability in the strength of land-atmosphere coupling and in projections of future precipitation and soil moisture. Due to the dependence of seasonal warming on land-surface processes, these inter-model variations influence the projected summertime warming amplification and contribute to the uncertainty in projections of future extreme heat.

  4. Climatic anomalies in the Spring of 2017 in Oltenia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    OCTAVIA BOGDAN

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The year 2015, according to the global average, was the warmest year since the beginning of the measurements and coincided with the maximum phase of the El Nino climatic process that extended until May 2016 (NOAA and WMO documents. A period of normality for the Southern Oscillation followed. In 2015, the global average air temperature exceeded the global average from the pre-industrial age for the first time by 1.0°C. Global warming continued, and 2016 was the warmest year in the history of the planet, exceeding the global average by 1.1°C. In Oltenia, the winter 2016-2017 was normal, with a general average of -1.4°C for the area with altitudes below 600 m, although December 2016 was also thermally normal. The winter was marked by a normal thermally and droughty December and a cold January, with the average for the entire region of -5.07°C, being the fifth coldest January of the last 57 years. In February, the weather continuously warmed up, from February 2nd, the period February 21-28 registering moderate heat wave. The coming of spring was very early, with an average coming of spring index for 2017 of 464.4°C, being the third index in descending order after 2016 (520.3°C and 2002 (499.4°C. Although solar activity has been kept to a minimum, warming has continued, and March has been warm, April and May with a normal thermal value at the regional level. The vegetation started its development early, and the cold weather and late spring hoarfrost occurred in March (27-28.III and April (21-24.IV, which caused significant damage to agricultural crops, vegetables and solariums. In some parts of the country, snow has fallen into certain periods. Early coming of spring, and intense and late spring colds are climatic anomalies with destructive potential as in the present case.

  5. Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bost, Charles A.; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2015-10-01

    Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

  6. Bayesian versus politically motivated reasoning in human perception of climate anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ripberger, Joseph T.; Jenkins-Smith, Hank C.; Silva, Carol L.; Carlson, Deven E.; Gupta, Kuhika; Carlson, Nina; Dunlap, Riley E.

    2017-11-01

    In complex systems where humans and nature interact to produce joint outcomes, mitigation, adaptation, and resilience require that humans perceive feedback—signals of health and distress—from natural systems. In many instances, humans readily perceive feedback. In others, feedback is more difficult to perceive, so humans rely on experts, heuristics, biases, and/or identify confirming rationalities that may distort perceptions of feedback. This study explores human perception of feedback from natural systems by testing alternate conceptions about how individuals perceive climate anomalies, a form of feedback from the climate system. Results indicate that individuals generally perceive climate anomalies, especially when the anomalies are relatively extreme and persistent. Moreover, this finding is largely robust to political differences that generate predictable but small biases in feedback perception at extreme ends of the partisan spectrum. The subtlety of these biases bodes well for mitigation, adaptation, and resilience as human systems continue to interact with a changing climate system.

  7. Characteristics of Eurasian snowmelt and its impacts on the land surface and surface climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Kunhui; Lau, Ngar-Cheung

    2018-03-01

    The local hydrological and climatic impacts of Eurasian snowmelt are studied using advanced land surface and atmospheric data. It is found that intense melting of snow is located at mid-high latitudes in April and May. Snowmelt plays an important role in determining the seasonal cycles of surface runoff and soil moisture (SM). Specifically, melting is accompanied by sharp responses in surface runoff and surface SM while the impacts are delayed for deeper-layer of soil. This is particularly significant in the western sector of Eurasia. On interannual timescales, the responses of various surface parameters to snowmelt in the same month are rather significant. However, the persistence of surface SM anomalies is weak due to the strong soil evaporation anomalies and surplus of surface energy for evaporation. Strong impacts on the sensible heat flux, planetary boundary layer height and precipitation in the next month following the melting of snow are identified in west Russia and Siberia. Downward propagation of surface SM anomalies is observed and a positive evaporation-convection feedback is identified in west Russia. However, the subsequent impacts on the local convective precipitation in late spring-summer and its contribution to the total precipitation are seemingly weak. The atmospheric water vapor convergence has strong control over the total precipitation anomalies. Overall, snowmelt-produced SM anomalies are not found to significantly impact the late spring-summer local climate anomalies in Northern Eurasia. Therefore, the delayed remote-responses of atmospheric circulation and climate to the melting of Eurasian snow may be only possible near the melting period.

  8. A variant of the anomaly initialisation approach for global climate forecast models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpi, Danila; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Hawkins, Ed; Nichols, Nancy; Carrassi, Alberto

    2014-05-01

    This work presents a refined method of anomaly initialisation (AI) applied to the ocean and sea ice components of the global climate forecast model EC-Earth, with the following particularities: - the use of a weight to the anomalies, in order to avoid the risk of introducing too big anomalies recorded in the observed state, whose amplitude does not fit the range of the internal variability generated by the model. - the AI of the temperature and density ocean state variables instead of the temperature and salinity. Results show that the use of such refinements improve the skill over the Arctic region, part of the North and South Atlantic, part of the North and South Pacific and the Mediterranean Sea. In the Tropical Pacific the full field initialised experiment performs better. This is probably due to a displacement of the observed anomalies caused by the use of the AI technique. Furthermore, preliminary results of an anomaly nudging experiment are discussed.

  9. Hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region and its relationships with large-scale climate anomaly patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Swierczynski, Tina; Brauer, Achim; Kämpf, Lucas; Czymzik, Markus

    2017-04-01

    Flood triggered detrital layers in varved sediments of Lake Mondsee, located at the northern fringe of the European Alps (47°48'N,13°23'E), provide an important archive of regional hydroclimatic variability during the mid- to late Holocene. To improve the interpretation of the flood layer record in terms of large-scale climate variability, we investigate the relationships between observational hydrological records from the region, like the Mondsee lake level, the runoff of the lake's main inflow Griesler Ache, with observed precipitation and global climate patterns. The lake level shows a strong positive linear trend during the observational period in all seasons. Additionally, lake level presents important interannual to multidecadal variations. These variations are associated with distinct seasonal atmospheric circulation patterns. A pronounced anomalous anticyclonic center over the Iberian Peninsula is associated with high lake levels values during winter. This center moves southwestward during spring, summer and autumn. In the same time, a cyclonic anomaly center is recorded over central and western Europe. This anomalous circulation extends southwestward from winter to autumn. Similar atmospheric circulation patterns are associated with river runoff and precipitation variability from the region. High lake levels are associated with positive local precipitation anomalies in all seasons as well as with negative local temperature anomalies during spring, summer and autumn. A correlation analysis reveals that lake level, runoff and precipitation variability is related to large-scale sea surface temperature anomaly patterns in all seasons suggesting a possible impact of large-scale climatic modes, like the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region. The results presented in this study can be used for a more robust interpretation of the long flood layer record from Lake Mondsee sediments

  10. The diffusion mechanism and convective transport in the formation of surface anomalies of RADON-222 generated at depth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pereira, E.B.; Hamza, V.M.

    1982-01-01

    A preliminar study on the importance of a thermally-activated convective transport of radon is made in order to explain radon anomalies at surface generated at great depth. It is theoretically shown that convective currents should be of the order of 10 μm/s or larger to explain such anomalies. The influence of surface temperature changes on the convective transport is also discussed. Seasonal changes in temperature typical of climates such as that of southern Brazil can develop thermal inversion layers at depths up to 20 metres. The optimum period of the year for the employment of surface emanometric techniques is during the second and the third months after the winter peak when the thermal inversion barriers are less intense. (Author) [pt

  11. Comparison of full field and anomaly initialisation for decadal climate prediction: towards an optimal consistency between the ocean and sea-ice anomaly initialisation state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpi, Danila; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.

    2017-08-01

    Decadal prediction exploits sources of predictability from both the internal variability through the initialisation of the climate model from observational estimates, and the external radiative forcings. When a model is initialised with the observed state at the initial time step (Full Field Initialisation—FFI), the forecast run drifts towards the biased model climate. Distinguishing between the climate signal to be predicted and the model drift is a challenging task, because the application of a-posteriori bias correction has the risk of removing part of the variability signal. The anomaly initialisation (AI) technique aims at addressing the drift issue by answering the following question: if the model is allowed to start close to its own attractor (i.e. its biased world), but the phase of the simulated variability is constrained toward the contemporaneous observed one at the initialisation time, does the prediction skill improve? The relative merits of the FFI and AI techniques applied respectively to the ocean component and the ocean and sea ice components simultaneously in the EC-Earth global coupled model are assessed. For both strategies the initialised hindcasts show better skill than historical simulations for the ocean heat content and AMOC along the first two forecast years, for sea ice and PDO along the first forecast year, while for AMO the improvements are statistically significant for the first two forecast years. The AI in the ocean and sea ice components significantly improves the skill of the Arctic sea surface temperature over the FFI.

  12. The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Byzantium: A review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xoplaki, Elena; Fleitmann, Dominik; Luterbacher, Juerg; Wagner, Sebastian; Haldon, John F.; Zorita, Eduardo; Telelis, Ioannis; Toreti, Andrea; Izdebski, Adam

    2016-04-01

    At the beginning of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, in the ninth and tenth century, the medieval eastern Roman empire, more usually known as Byzantium, was recovering from its early medieval crisis and experiencing favourable climatic conditions for the agricultural and demographic growth. Although in the Balkans and Anatolia such favourable climate conditions were prevalent during the eleventh century, parts of the imperial territories were facing significant challenges as a result of external political/military pressure. The apogee of medieval Byzantine socio-economic development, around AD 1150, coincides with a period of adverse climatic conditions for its economy, so it becomes obvious that the winter dryness and high climate variability at this time did not hinder Byzantine society and economy from achieving that level of expansion. Soon after this peak, towards the end of the twelfth century, the populations of the Byzantine world were experiencing unusual climatic conditions with marked dryness and cooler phases. The weakened Byzantine socio-political system must have contributed to the events leading to the fall of Constantinople in AD 1204 and the sack of the city. The final collapse of the Byzantine political control over western Anatolia took place half century later, thus contemporaneous with the strong cooling effect after a tropical volcanic eruption in AD 1257. We suggest that, regardless of a range of other influential factors, climate change was also an important contributing factor to the socio-economic changes that took place in Byzantium during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Crucially, therefore, while the relatively sophisticated and complex Byzantine society was certainly influenced by climatic conditions, and while it nevertheless displayed a significant degree of resilience, external pressures as well as tensions within the Byzantine society more broadly contributed to an increasing vulnerability in respect of climate impacts. Our

  13. The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation in general circulation model experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kharin, V.V.

    1994-01-01

    Several multi-year integrations of the Hamburg version of the ECMWF/T21 general circulation model driven by the sea surface temperature (SST) observed in the period 1970-1988 were examined to study the extratropical response of the atmospheric circulation to SST anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in winter. In the first 19-years run SST anomalies were prescribed globally (GAGO run), and in two others SST variability was limited to extratropical regions (MOGA run) and to tropics (TOGA run), respectively. A canonical correlation analysis was applied to the monthly means to find the best correlated patterns of SST anomalies in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric flow. Contrary to expectation, the extratropical response in the GAGO run is not equal to the linear combination of the responses in the MOGA and TOGA runs. In the GAGO integration with globally prescribed SST the best correlated atmospheric pattern is global and is characterized by dipole structures of the same polarity in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific sectors. In the MOGA and TOGA experiments the atmospheric response is more local with main centers in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, respectively. The atmospheric modes found by the CCA were compared with the normal modes of the barotropic vorticity equation linearized about the 500 mb winter climate of the control integration driven by the climatological SST. The normal modes with smallest eigenvalues are similar to the canonical patterns of 500 mb geopotential height. The corresponding eigenvectors of the adjoint operator, which represent an external forcing optimal for exciting normal modes, have a longitudinal structure with maxima in regions characterized by enhanced high frequency baroclinic activity over both oceans. It was suggested that variability of storm tracks could play an important role in variability of the barotropic normal modes. (orig.)

  14. Fatigue crack growth from handling surface anomalies in a nickel based superalloy at high temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gourdin Stéphane

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aircraft engine manufacturers have to demonstrate that handling surface anomalies in sensitive areas of discs are not critical for in-service life of a component. Currently, the models used consider anomalies as long cracks propagating from the first cycle, which introduces a certain degree of conservatism when calculating the fatigue life of surface flaws. Preliminary studies have shown that the first stages of crack propagation from surface anomalies are responsible for the conservative results. Thus, the aim of the study is to characterize the crack propagation from typical surface anomalies and to establish a new crack growth model, which can account for the micro-propagation stage. To separate the effects of the geometry of the anomalies and the residual stress state after introduction of the surface flaws, two V-type anomalies are studied: scratches and dents. Different studies have shown that the residual stresses beneath the anomalies seem to control the fatigue life of samples exhibiting scratches and dents. In order to monitor the crack micro-propagation, a direct current potential drop technique, coupled with heat tints is used during fatigue tests at elevated temperature. Thermal treatments releasing the residual stresses are also used to decouple the effect of crack morphology and residual stresses.

  15. Improvement of statistical methods for detecting anomalies in climate and environmental monitoring systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yakunin, A. G.; Hussein, H. M.

    2018-01-01

    The article shows how the known statistical methods, which are widely used in solving financial problems and a number of other fields of science and technology, can be effectively applied after minor modification for solving such problems in climate and environment monitoring systems, as the detection of anomalies in the form of abrupt changes in signal levels, the occurrence of positive and negative outliers and the violation of the cycle form in periodic processes.

  16. Estimation of regional mass anomalies from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) over Himalayan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agrawal, R.; Singh, S. K.; Rajawat, A. S.; Ajai

    2014-11-01

    Time-variable gravity changes are caused by a combination of postglacial rebound, redistribution of water and snow/ice on land and as well as in the ocean. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, launched in 2002, provides monthly average of the spherical harmonic co-efficient. These spherical harmonic co-efficient describe earth's gravity field with a resolution of few hundred kilometers. Time-variability of gravity field represents the change in mass over regional level with accuracies in cm in terms of Water Equivalent Height (WEH). The WEH reflects the changes in the integrated vertically store water including snow cover, surface water, ground water and soil moisture at regional scale. GRACE data are also sensitive towards interior strain variation, surface uplift and surface subsidence cover over a large area. GRACE data was extracted over the three major Indian River basins, Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra, in the Himalayas which are perennial source of fresh water throughout the year in Northern Indian Plain. Time series analysis of the GRACE data was carried out from 2003-2012 over the study area. Trends and amplitudes of the regional mass anomalies in the region were estimated using level 3 GRACE data product with a spatial resolution at 10 by 10 grid provided by Center for Space Research (CSR), University of Texas at Austin. Indus basin has shown a subtle decreasing trend from 2003-2012 however it was observed to be statistically insignificant at 95 % confidence level. Ganga and Brahmaputra basins have shown a clear decreasing trend in WEH which was also observed to be statistically significant. The trend analysis over Ganga and Brahamputra basins have shown an average annual change of -1.28 cm and -1.06 cm in terms of WEH whereas Indus basin has shown a slight annual change of -0.07 cm. This analysis will be helpful to understand the loss of mass in terms of WEH over Indian Himalayas and will be crucial for hydrological and

  17. A Data-Driven Assessment of the Sensitivity of Global Ecosystems to Climate Anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miralles, D. G.; Papagiannopoulou, C.; Demuzere, M.; Decubber, S.; Waegeman, W.; Verhoest, N.; Dorigo, W.

    2017-12-01

    Vegetation is a central player in the climate system, constraining atmospheric conditions through a series of feedbacks. This fundamental role highlights the importance of understanding regional drivers of ecological sensitivity and the response of vegetation to climatic changes. While nutrient availability and short-term disturbances can be crucial for vegetation at various spatiotemporal scales, natural vegetation dynamics are overall driven by climate. At monthly scales, the interactions between vegetation and climate become complex: some vegetation types react preferentially to specific climatic changes, with different levels of intensity, resilience and lagged response. For our current Earth System Models (ESMs) being able to capture this complexity is crucial but extremely challenging. This adds uncertainty to our projections of future climate and the fate of global ecosystems. Here, following a Granger causality framework based on a non-linear random forest predictive model, we exploit the current wealth of satellite data records to uncover the main climatic drivers of monthly vegetation variability globally. Results based on three decades of satellite data indicate that water availability is the most dominant factor driving vegetation in over 60% of the vegetated land. This overall dependency of ecosystems on water availability is larger than previously reported, partly owed to the ability of our machine-learning framework to disentangle the co-linearites between climatic drivers, and to quantify non-linear impacts of climate on vegetation. Our observation-based results are then used to benchmark ESMs on their representation of vegetation sensitivity to climate and climatic extremes. Our findings indicate that the sensitivity of vegetation to climatic anomalies is ill-reproduced by some widely-used ESMs.

  18. Potential impacts of wintertime soil moisture anomalies from agricultural irrigation at low latitudes on regional and global climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wey, Hao-Wei; Lo, Min-Hui; Lee, Shih-Yu; Yu, Jin-Yi; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung

    2015-10-01

    Anthropogenic water management can change surface energy budgets and the water cycle. In this study, we focused on impacts of Asian low-latitude irrigation on regional and global climates during boreal wintertime. A state-of-the-art Earth system model is used to simulate the land-air interaction processes affected by irrigation and the consequent responses in atmospheric circulation. Perturbed experiments show that wet soil moisture anomalies at low latitudes can reduce the surface temperature on a continental scale through atmospheric feedback. The intensity of prevailing monsoon circulation becomes stronger because of larger land-sea thermal contrast. Furthermore, anomalous upper level convergence over South Asia and midlatitude climatic changes indicate tropical-extratropical teleconnections. The wintertime Aleutian low is deepened and an anomalous warm surface temperature is found in North America. Previous studies have noted this warming but left it unexplained, and we provide plausible mechanisms for these remote impacts coming from the irrigation over Asian low-latitude regions.

  19. The influence of regional surface soil moisture anomalies on forest fires in Siberia observed from satellites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bartsch, A [Institute of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Vienna University of Technology, 1040 Vienna (Austria); Balzter, H [Department of Geography, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH (United Kingdom); George, C, E-mail: ab@ipf.tuwien.ac.a [Earth Observation, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford OX10 8BB (United Kingdom)

    2009-10-15

    Forest fires are frequent in the Siberian taiga and are predicted to increase in frequency as a result of increased fire risk under drought conditions, and prolonged fire seasons caused by climate change. There is, however, some uncertainty as to the extent to which drought influences forest fire frequency at a regional scale. Here, we present an analysis of satellite derived soil moisture anomaly data from ERS-1/2 (ERS: Earth Resources Satellite) scatterometer data and burned area maps from MODIS/AVHRR/ATSR (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer/Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer/Along-Track Scanning Radiometer) over Central Siberia for the years 1992-2000. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship of remotely sensed soil moisture deviations from the long-term mean and fire within the boreal biome on a sub-continental scale. Results show that wet surface soil moisture conditions limit the extent of burned area. They can prevent the outbreak of fires but the magnitude of a negative (dry) deviation does not determine the maximum size of fire affected areas. It is known from the literature, however, that an ignition is more likely to occur under low surface wetness conditions, such as those that we observed during July and August in both permafrost and non-permafrost regions. Although the burned area under drier conditions in July is lowest over non-permafrost, the actual number of fires is as high as over continuous permafrost. Approximately 80% of all events occurred under such conditions during that month. The fire size was below 50 km{sup 2} under moist conditions. Larger burned areas have in general not been detected when the surface wetness deviation exceeded +5%.

  20. The influence of regional surface soil moisture anomalies on forest fires in Siberia observed from satellites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartsch, A; Balzter, H; George, C

    2009-01-01

    Forest fires are frequent in the Siberian taiga and are predicted to increase in frequency as a result of increased fire risk under drought conditions, and prolonged fire seasons caused by climate change. There is, however, some uncertainty as to the extent to which drought influences forest fire frequency at a regional scale. Here, we present an analysis of satellite derived soil moisture anomaly data from ERS-1/2 (ERS: Earth Resources Satellite) scatterometer data and burned area maps from MODIS/AVHRR/ATSR (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer/Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer/Along-Track Scanning Radiometer) over Central Siberia for the years 1992-2000. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship of remotely sensed soil moisture deviations from the long-term mean and fire within the boreal biome on a sub-continental scale. Results show that wet surface soil moisture conditions limit the extent of burned area. They can prevent the outbreak of fires but the magnitude of a negative (dry) deviation does not determine the maximum size of fire affected areas. It is known from the literature, however, that an ignition is more likely to occur under low surface wetness conditions, such as those that we observed during July and August in both permafrost and non-permafrost regions. Although the burned area under drier conditions in July is lowest over non-permafrost, the actual number of fires is as high as over continuous permafrost. Approximately 80% of all events occurred under such conditions during that month. The fire size was below 50 km 2 under moist conditions. Larger burned areas have in general not been detected when the surface wetness deviation exceeded +5%.

  1. The Role of Forcing and Internal Dynamics in explaining the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goossee, Hugues; Crespin, Elisabeth; Dubinkina, Svetlana; Loutre, Marie-France; Mann, Michael E.; Renssen, Hans; Shindell, Drew

    2012-01-01

    Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming.

  2. IMPACT OF CLIMATE ANOMALY ON CATCH COMPOSITION OF NERITIC TUNA IN SUNDA STRAIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khairul Amri

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Tongkol komo/kawakawa (Euthynnus affinis and tenggiri (Scomberomerus guttatus are commonly caught by mini purseiners operated in Sunda Straits and landed in Labuan, West Java. This species inhabits coastal water and has preference staying in relatively warm water. Oceanography parameters commonly influencing the distribution of Euthynnus affinis are temperature, current, and salinity. The oceanography of Sunda Strait is influenced by water masses coming from the north that mainly originated from the Java Sea and water masses from the south mainly originated from Indian Ocean. The internal oceanography of Sunda Strait is also influenced by upwelling and monsoon as regional climate anomaly (ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole Mode. This paper describes the influence of Dipole Mode (positive and negative event and ENSO (El- Nino/La-Nina to the catch dynamics of neritic tuna particularly in Sunda Straits waters. The results shown that regional climate anomaly influenced neritic tuna catch and its composition. The catches Euthynnus affinis in phase negative dipole mode or La-Nina were higher and dominated the catch composition of pelagic fishes of Sunda Strait. Similar situation also is showen by Scomberomorus commerson.

  3. Topographical anomaly on surfaces created by abrasive waterjet

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hloch, S.; Valíček, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 59, 5-8 (2012), s. 593-604 ISSN 0268-3768 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30860518 Keywords : abrasive waterjet * initial zone * surface topography Subject RIV: JQ - Machines ; Tools Impact factor: 1.205, year: 2012 http://www.springerlink.com/content/5701144k76v02372

  4. Influence of the sea surface temperature anomaly over the Indian Ocean in March on the summer rainfall in Xinjiang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yang; Huang, Anning; Zhao, Yong; Yang, Qing; Jiang, Jing; La, Mengke

    2015-02-01

    This study explores the relationship between the sea surface temperature over the Indian Ocean (IOSST) in March and the summer rainfall in Xinjiang. In the observations, the IOSST in March significantly correlates with the summer rainfall in Xinjiang with a correlation coefficient of about 0.49 during 1961-2007. This relationship is independent from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with a partial correlation coefficient of about 0.40-0.48 controlling for the ENSO indices from December to March. In addition to the observations, three sets of numerical sensitivity experiments are conducted with a regional climate model (RegCM4.3). The model results show that warm IOSST can excite a negative anomaly of geopotential height at 500 hPa over the Indian Ocean in March. This anomaly stays over the tropical Indian Ocean, and then propagates north to central Asia in June. Consequently, the anomalous wind associated with this geopotential height anomaly transports moisture from the Persian Gulf and the coast of Iran to Xinjiang, passing over Pakistan and the Tibetan Plateau. Therefore, the warm (cold) IOSST in March tends to cause the increase (decrease) of the summer rainfall over Xinjiang, especially in the Tian Shan and Kunlun Mountains.

  5. Simultaneous solution of the geoid and the surface density anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardalan, A. A.; Safari, A.; Karimi, R.; AllahTavakoli, Y.

    2012-04-01

    The main application of the land gravity data in geodesy is "local geoid" or "local gravity field" modeling, whereas the same data could play a vital role for the anomalous mass-density modeling in geophysical explorations. In the realm of local geoid computations based on Geodetic Boundary Value Problems (GBVP), it is needed that the effect of the topographic (or residual terrain) masses be removed via application of the Newton integral in order to perform the downward continuation in a harmonic space. However, harmonization of the downward continuation domain may not be perfectly possible unless accurate information about the mass-density of the topographic masses be available. On the other hand, from the exploration point of view the unwanted topographical masses within the aforementioned procedure could be regarded as the signal. In order to overcome the effect of the remaining masses within the remove step of the GBVP, which cause uncertainties in mathematical modeling of the problem, here we are proposing a methodology for simultaneous solution of the geoid and residual surface density modeling In other words, a new mathematical model will be offered which both provides the needed harmonic space for downward continuation and at the same time accounts for the non-harmonic terms of gravitational field and makes use of it for residual mass density modeling within the topographic region. The presented new model enjoys from uniqueness of the solution, opposite to the inverse application of the Newton integral for mass density modeling which is non-unique, and only needs regularization to remove its instability problem. In this way, the solution of the model provides both the incremental harmonic gravitational potential on surface of the reference ellipsoid as the gravity field model and the lateral surface mass-density variations via the second derivatives of the non harmonic terms of gravitational field. As the case study and accuracy verification, the proposed

  6. Reconstructing Tropical Southwest Pacific Climate Variability and Mean State Changes at Vanuatu during the Medieval Climate Anomaly using Geochemical Proxies from Corals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawman, A. E.; Quinn, T. M.; Partin, J. W.; Taylor, F. W.; Thirumalai, K.; WU, C. C.; Shen, C. C.

    2017-12-01

    The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA: 950-1250 CE) is identified as a period during the last 2 millennia with Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures similar to the present. However, our understanding of tropical climate variability during the MCA is poorly constrained due to a lack of sub-annually resolved proxy records. We investigate seasonal and interannual variability during the MCA using geochemical records developed from two well preserved Porites lutea fossilized corals from the tropical southwest Pacific (Tasmaloum, Vanuatu; 15.6°S, 166.9°E). Absolute U/Th dates of 1127.1 ± 2.7 CE and 1105.1 ± 3.0 CE indicate that the selected fossil corals lived during the MCA. We use paired coral Sr/Ca and δ18O measurements to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) and the δ18O of seawater (a proxy for salinity). To provide context for the fossil coral records and test whether the mean state and climate variability at Vanuatu during the MCA is similar to the modern climate, our analysis also incorporates two modern coral records from Sabine Bank (15.9°S, 166.0°E) and Malo Channel (15.7°S, 167.2°E), Vanuatu for comparison. We quantify the uncertainty in our modern and fossil coral SST estimates via replication with multiple, overlapping coral records. Both the modern and fossil corals reproduce their respective mean SST value over their common period of overlap, which is 25 years in both cases. Based on over 100 years of monthly Sr/Ca data from each time period, we find that SSTs at Vanuatu during the MCA are 1.3 ± 0.7°C cooler relative to the modern. We also find that the median amplitude of the annual cycle is 0.8 ± 0.3°C larger during the MCA relative to the modern. Multiple data analysis techniques, including the standard deviation and the difference between the 95th and 5th percentiles of the annual SST cycle estimates, also show that the MCA has greater annual SST variability relative to the modern. Stable isotope data acquisition is ongoing, and when

  7. Extreme Heat Wave over European Russia in Summer 2010: Anomaly or a Manifestation of Climatic Trend?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razuvaev, V.; Groisman, P. Y.; Bulygina, O.; Borzenkova, I.

    2010-12-01

    Extraordinary temperature anomalies over European Russia (ER) in summer 2010 raised a legitimate question in the title of this presentation. A 60-days-long hot anticyclonic weather system with daily temperature anomalies as high as +10K and no or negligible amount of rainfall first decimated crops in the forest-steppe zone of ER, gradually dried wetlands in the forest zone and, finally, caused numerous natural and anthropogenic fires that at the time of this abstract preparation have not yet been extinguished. The extreme heat, lack of precipitation, and forest fires have caused hundreds of deaths and multimillion dollars in property losses. Indirect losses of lives due to this weather anomaly, with the ensuing fires and related air pollution, as well as the absence of air conditioning in apartments has yet to be estimated. The center of European Russia was well covered by meteorological observations for the past 130 years. These data, historical weather records (yearbooks or "letopisi" , which were carried on in the major Russian monasteries), and finally, dendroclimatological information, all show that this summer temperature anomaly was well above all known extremes in the past 1000 years. Like ocean waves and ocean tides, weather and climate variability go together strengthening (or mitigating) each other. We shall show the precursors of the current outbreak using principally the most accurate meteorological records of the past century updated to 2009 (at the Session, the 2010 data will also be presented). While a careful analyses of these records and thoughtful analyses of recent similar temperature outbreaks in Western Europe could not prevent the occurrence of this disaster, the lessons learned from these analyses (a) would warn about its increasing probability and (b) mitigation and adaptation measures could well be made to reduce its negative consequences. Among our arguments are: (1)There is a century-long tendency of reduction of equator minus pole

  8. Wet periods in northeastern Brazil over the past 210 kyr linked to distant climate anomalies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xianfeng; Auler, Augusto S; Edwards, R Lawrence; Cheng, Hai; Cristalli, Patricia S; Smart, Peter L; Richards, David A; Shen, Chuan-Chou

    2004-12-09

    The tropics are the main source of the atmosphere's sensible and latent heat, and water vapour, and are therefore important for reconstructions of past climate. But long, accurately dated records of southern tropical palaeoclimate, which would allow the establishment of climatic connections to distant regions, have not been available. Here we present a 210,000-year (210-kyr) record of wet periods in tropical northeastern Brazil--a region that is currently semi-arid. The record is obtained from speleothems and travertine deposits that are accurately dated using the U/Th method. We find wet periods that are synchronous with periods of weak East Asian summer monsoons, cold periods in Greenland, Heinrich events in the North Atlantic and periods of decreased river runoff to the Cariaco basin. We infer that the wet periods may be explained with a southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. This widespread synchroneity of climate anomalies suggests a relatively rapid global reorganization of the ocean-atmosphere system. We conclude that the wet periods probably affected rainforest distribution, as plant fossils show that forest expansion occurred during these intermittent wet intervals, and opened a forest corridor between the Amazonian and Atlantic rainforests.

  9. A review on remotely sensed land surface temperature anomaly as an earthquake precursor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhardwaj, Anshuman; Singh, Shaktiman; Sam, Lydia; Joshi, P. K.; Bhardwaj, Akanksha; Martín-Torres, F. Javier; Kumar, Rajesh

    2017-12-01

    The low predictability of earthquakes and the high uncertainty associated with their forecasts make earthquakes one of the worst natural calamities, capable of causing instant loss of life and property. Here, we discuss the studies reporting the observed anomalies in the satellite-derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) before an earthquake. We compile the conclusions of these studies and evaluate the use of remotely sensed LST anomalies as precursors of earthquakes. The arrival times and the amplitudes of the anomalies vary widely, thus making it difficult to consider them as universal markers to issue earthquake warnings. Based on the randomness in the observations of these precursors, we support employing a global-scale monitoring system to detect statistically robust anomalous geophysical signals prior to earthquakes before considering them as definite precursors.

  10. Vegetation index anomaly response to varying lengths of drought across vegetation and climatic gradients in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, M.; Miura, T.; Trauernicht, C.; Frazier, A. G.

    2017-12-01

    A drought which results in prolonged and extended deficit in naturally available water supply and creates multiple stresses across ecosystems is classified as an ecological drought. Detecting and understanding the dynamics and response of such droughts in tropical systems, specifically across various vegetation and climatic gradients is fairly undetermined, yet increasingly important for better understandings of the ecological effects of drought. To understanding the link between what lengths and intensities of known meteorological drought triggers detectable ecological vegetation responses, a landscape scale regression analysis evaluating the response (slope) and relationship strength (R-squared) of several cumulative SPI (standard precipitation index) lengths(1, 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, 36, 48, and 60 month), to various satellite derived monthly vegetation indices anomalies (NDVI, EVI, EVI2, and LSWI) was performed across a matrix of dominant vegetation covers (grassland, shrubland, and forest) and climatic moisture zones (arid, dry, mesic, and wet). The nine different SPI lags across these climactic and vegetation gradients was suggest that stronger relationships and steeper slopes were found in dryer climates (across all vegetation covers) and finer vegetation types (across all moisture zones). Overall NDVI, EVI and EVI2 showed the best utility in these dryer climatic zones across all vegetation types. Within arid and dry areas "best" fits showed increasing lengths of cumulative SPI were with increasing vegetation coarseness respectively. Overall these findings suggest that rainfall driven drought may have a stronger impact on the ecological condition of vegetation in water limited systems with finer vegetation types ecologically responding more rapidly to meteorological drought events than coarser woody vegetation systems. These results suggest that previously and newly documented trends of decreasing rainfall and increasing drought in Hawaiian drylands may have

  11. The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age in Chesapeake Bay and the North Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, T. M.; Hayo, K.; Thunell, R.C.; Dwyer, G.S.; Saenger, C.; Willard, D.A.

    2010-01-01

    A new 2400-year paleoclimate reconstruction from Chesapeake Bay (CB) (eastern US) was compared to other paleoclimate records in the North Atlantic region to evaluate climate variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Using Mg/Ca ratios from ostracodes and oxygen isotopes from benthic foraminifera as proxies for temperature and precipitation-driven estuarine hydrography, results show that warmest temperatures in CB reached 16-17. ??C between 600 and 950. CE (Common Era), centuries before the classic European Medieval Warm Period (950-1100. CE) and peak warming in the Nordic Seas (1000-1400. CE). A series of centennial warm/cool cycles began about 1000. CE with temperature minima of ~. 8 to 9. ??C about 1150, 1350, and 1650-1800. CE, and intervening warm periods (14-15. ??C) centered at 1200, 1400, 1500 and 1600. CE. Precipitation variability in the eastern US included multiple dry intervals from 600 to 1200. CE, which contrasts with wet medieval conditions in the Caribbean. The eastern US experienced a wet LIA between 1650 and 1800. CE when the Caribbean was relatively dry. Comparison of the CB record with other records shows that the MCA and LIA were characterized by regionally asynchronous warming and complex spatial patterns of precipitation, possibly related to ocean-atmosphere processes. ?? 2010.

  12. Climatic variability and trends in the surface waters of coastal British Columbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummins, Patrick F.; Masson, Diane

    2014-01-01

    Multi-decadal records of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) collected at a set of lighthouse stations are used to examine climatic variability and trends in the coastal waters of British Columbia. Particular attention is given to relations between the water property anomalies and variability in coastal freshwater discharge and alongshore wind stress. Within the Strait of Georgia, SSS anomalies are closely related to Fraser River discharge anomalies. Along the Pacific coast, anomalies in alongshore wind stress and freshwater runoff have the characteristics of white noise processes. A cross-correlation analysis demonstrates that SST and SSS variability along the open west coast is consistent with the response of a first-order autoregressive process driven by anomalous alongshore wind stress and coastal freshwater discharge, respectively. Thus climatic variability of SST and SSS along the Pacific coast of British Columbia occurs, in part, through the integration of noisy atmospheric forcing and coastal precipitation. Seasonal correlations show that SST is strongly related to wind stress during winter and fall. Conversely, SSS is relatively weakly related to the alongshore wind during spring, suggesting that variability in upwelling makes only a modest contribution to variability of SSS in the nearshore environment. Consistent with previous studies, secular trends indicate long-term warming and freshening of the coastal ocean at most stations. It is shown that long-term SST trends can be obscured by the pronounced climatic variability of these waters, requiring that time series extend for several decades to be reliably detected.

  13. La prospection geothermique de surface au Maroc: hydrodynamisme, anomalies thermiques et indices de surfaceGeothermal prospecting in Morocco: hydrodynamics, thermal anomalies and surface indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarhloule, Y.; Lahrache, A.; Ben Abidate, L.; Khattach, D.; Bouri, S.; Boukdir, A.; Ben Dhia, H.

    2001-05-01

    Shallow geothermal prospecting ( < 700 m) has been performed in four zones in Morocco for which few deep data are available: northwestern basin, northeastern basin, Tadla Basin and Agadir Basin. These areas are different geologically and hydrogeologically. The temperature data from 250 wells at depths between 15 and 500 m have been analysed in order to estimate the natural geothermal gradient in these areas, to determine the principal thermal anomalies, to identify the main thermal indices and to characterise the recharge, discharge and potential mixing limits of the aquifers. The hydrostratigraphical study of each basin revealed several potential reservoir layers in which the Turonian carbonate aquifer (Tadal and Agadir Basins) and Liassic acquifer (Moroccan northwestern and northeastern basins) are the most important hot water reservoirs in Morocco. The recharge zones of each aquifer are characterised by high topography, high water potential, shallow cold water, low geothermal gradient and negative anomalies. The discharge zones are characterized by low topography, low piezometric level, high geothermal gradient, high temperature with hot springs and positive anomalies. The main thermal indices and the principal thermal anomalies that coincide with the artesian zones of the Turonian and Liassic aquifers have been identified.

  14. Climatic change due to land surface alterations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franchito, S.H.; Rao, V.B.

    1992-01-01

    A primitive equations global zonally averaged climate model is developed. The model includes biofeedback mechanisms. For the Northern Hemisphere the parameterization of biofeedback mechanisms is similar to that used by Gutman et al. For the Southern Hemisphere new parameterizations are derived. The model simulates reasonably well the mean annual zonally averaged climate and geobotanic zones. Deforestation, desertification, and irrigation experiments are performed. In the case of deforestation and desertification there is a reduction in the surface net radiation, evaporation, and precipitation and an increase in the surface temperature. In the case of irrigation experiment opposite changes occurred. In all the cases considered the changes in evapotranspiration overcome the effect of surface albedo modification. In all the experiments changes are smaller in the Southern Hemisphere.

  15. Observations. Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change. Chapter 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trenberth, K.E.; Jones, P.D.; Ambenje, P.; Bojariu, R.; Easterling, D.; Klein Tank, A.; Parker, D.; Rahimzadeh, F.; Renwick, J.A.; Rusticucci, M.; Soden, B.; Zhai, P.

    2007-09-15

    understanding of extremes. The global means of temperature and precipitation are most readily linked to global mean radiative forcing and are important because they clearly indicate if unusual change is occurring. However, the local or regional response can be complex and perhaps even counter-intuitive, such as changes in planetary waves in the atmosphere induced by global warming that result in regional cooling. As an indication of the complexity associated with temporal and spatial scales measures of the magnitude of natural variability of surface temperature in which climate signals are embedded are provided. The measures used are indicators of the range: the mean range of the diurnal and annual cycles, and the estimated 5th to 95th percentiles range of anomalies. These are based on the standard deviation and assumed normal distribution, which is a reasonable approximation in many places for temperature, with the exception of continental interiors in the cold season, which have strongly negatively skewed temperature distributions owing to cold extremes. For the global mean, the variance is somewhat affected by the observed trend, which inflates this estimate of the range slightly. The comparison highlights the large diurnal cycle and daily variability. Daily variability is, however, greatly reduced by either spatial or temporal averaging that effectively averages over synoptic weather systems. Nevertheless, even continental-scale averages contain much greater variability than the global mean in association with planetary-scale waves and events such as El Nino.

  16. Surface tension anomalies in room temperature ionic liquids-acetone solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abe, Hiroshi; Murata, Keisuke; Kiyokawa, Shota; Yoshimura, Yukihiro

    2018-05-01

    Surface tension anomalies were observed in room temperature ionic liquid (RTIL)-acetone solutions. The RTILs are 1-alkyl-3-methylimidazorium iodide with [Cnmim][I] in a [Cnmim][I]-x mol% acetone. The maximum value of the surface tension appeared at 40 mol% acetone, although density decreased monotonically with an increase in acetone concentration. A small alkyl chain length effect of the Cnmim+ cations was observed in the surface tension. By the Gibbs adsorption isotherm, it was found that I- anion-mediated surface structure became dominant above 40 mol%. In the different [Cnmim][TFSI]-acetone mixtures, normal decay of the surface tension was observed on the acetone concentration scale, where TFSI- is bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide.

  17. Environmental imperatives reconsidered: demographic crises in western North America during the medieval climatic anomaly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, T L; Brown, G M; Raab, L M; McVickar, J L; Spaulding, W G; Kennett, D J; York, A; Wlaker, P L

    1999-04-01

    Review of late Holocene paleoenvironmental and cultural sequences from four regions of western North America show striking correlations between drought and changes in subsistence, population, exchange, health, and interpersonal violence during the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (A.D. 800-1350). While ultimate causality is difficult to identify in the archaeological record, synchrony of the environmental and cultural changes and the negative character of many human responses--increased interpersonal violence, deterioration of long-distance exchange relationships, and regional abandonments--suggest widespread demographic crises caused by decreased environmental productivity. The medieval droughts occurred at a unique juncture in the demographic history of western North America when unusually large populations of both hunter-gathers and agriculturalists had evolved highly intensified economies that put them in unprecedented ecological jeopardy. Long-term patterns in the archaeological record are inconsistent with the predicted outcomes of simple adaptation or continuous economic intensification, suggesting that in this instance environmental dynamics played a major role in cultural transformations across a wide expanse of western North America among groups with diverse subsistence strategies. These events suggest that environment should not be overlooked as a potential cause of prehistoric culture change.

  18. Coherent climate anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific in post-El Niño summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosaka, Y.; Xie, S. P.; DU, Y.; Hu, K.; Chowdary, J. S.; Huang, G.

    2016-12-01

    El Niño typically peaks in boreal winter, and the associated equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) signal dissipates before subsequent summer. Its impact, however, outlasts until boreal summer in the Indo-western Pacific, featuring basin-wide Indian Ocean warming and tropical Northwestern Pacific cooling accompanied by the Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern with surface anomalous anticyclone (AAC) extending from the Philippine Sea to the northern Indian Ocean. Two formation mechanisms have been proposed for these climate anomalies in post-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) summer. One hypothesis invokes the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback in the tropical Northwestern Pacific, while the other points to inter-basin feedback between the Indian Ocean and tropical Northwestern Pacific. Based on a coupled model experiment, we propose an ocean-atmosphere coupled mode that synthesizes the two mechanisms. This Indo-western Pacific Ocean capacitor (IPOC) mode evolves seasonally from spring to summer under seasonal migration of background state. In spring, the WES feedback is operative in association with the tropical Northwestern Pacific cooling, while in summer the Indian Ocean warming and the inter-basin interaction maintains the AAC. While the IPOC mode is independent of ENSO in mechanism, ENSO can drive this mode in its decay phase. This excitation, however, has undergone substantial interdecadal modulations, depending on ENSO amplitude and persistence of Indian Ocean warming. The ENSO-IPOC correlation is high after the mid-1970s and at the beginning of the 20th century, but low in between.

  19. Expanded spatial extent of the Medieval Climate Anomaly revealed in lake-sediment records across the boreal region in northwest Ontario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laird, Kathleen R; Haig, Heather A; Ma, Susan; Kingsbury, Melanie V; Brown, Thomas A; Lewis, C F Michael; Oglesby, Robert J; Cumming, Brian F

    2012-09-01

    Multi-decadal to centennial-scale shifts in effective moisture over the past two millennia are inferred from sedimentary records from six lakes spanning a ~250 km region in northwest Ontario. This is the first regional application of a technique developed to reconstruct drought from drainage lakes (open lakes with surface outlets). This regional network of proxy drought records is based on individual within-lake calibration models developed using diatom assemblages collected from surface sediments across a water-depth gradient. Analysis of diatom assemblages from sediment cores collected close to the near-shore ecological boundary between benthic and planktonic diatom taxa indicated this boundary shifted over time in all lakes. These shifts are largely dependent on climate-driven influences, and can provide a sensitive record of past drought. Our lake-sediment records indicate two periods of synchronous signals, suggesting a common large-scale climate forcing. The first is a period of prolonged aridity during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, c. 900-1400 CE). Documentation of aridity across this region expands the known spatial extent of the MCA megadrought into a region that historically has not experienced extreme droughts such as those in central and western north America. The second synchronous period is the recent signal of the past ~100 years, which indicates a change to higher effective moisture that may be related to anthropogenic forcing on climate. This approach has the potential to fill regional gaps, where many previous paleo-lake depth methods (based on deeper centrally located cores) were relatively insensitive. By filling regional gaps, a better understanding of past spatial patterns in drought can be used to assess the sensitivity and realism of climate model projections of future climate change. This type of data is especially important for validating high spatial resolution, regional climate models. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  20. A triangular climate-based decision model to forecast crop anomalies in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guimarães Nobre, G.; Davenport, F.; Veldkamp, T.; Jongman, B.; Funk, C. C.; Husak, G. J.; Ward, P.; Aerts, J.

    2017-12-01

    By the end of 2017, the world is expected to experience unprecedented demands for food assistance where, across 45 countries, some 81 million people will face a food security crisis. Prolonged droughts in Eastern Africa are playing a major role in these crises. To mitigate famine risk and save lives, government bodies and international donor organisations are increasingly building up efforts to resolve conflicts and secure humanitarian relief. Disaster-relief and financing organizations traditionally focus on emergency response, providing aid after an extreme drought event, instead of taking actions in advance based on early warning. One of the reasons for this approach is that the seasonal risk information provided by early warning systems is often considered highly uncertain. Overcoming the reluctance to act based on early warnings greatly relies on understanding the risk of acting in vain, and assessing the cost-effectiveness of early actions. This research develops a triangular climate-based decision model for multiple seasonal time-scales to forecast strong anomalies in crop yield shortages in Kenya using Casual Discovery Algorithms and Fast and Frugal Decision Trees. This Triangular decision model (1) estimates the causality and strength of the relationship between crop yields and hydro climatological predictors (extracted from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network's data archive) during the crop growing season; (2) provides probabilistic forecasts of crop yield shortages in multiple time scales before the harvesting season; and (3) evaluates the cost-effectiveness of different financial mechanisms to respond to early warning indicators of crop yield shortages obtained from the model. Furthermore, we reflect on how such a model complements and advances the current state-of-art FEWS Net system, and examine its potential application to improve the management of agricultural risks in Kenya.

  1. Prominent Midlatitude Circulation Signature in High Asia's Surface Climate During Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mölg, Thomas; Maussion, Fabien; Collier, Emily; Chiang, John C. H.; Scherer, Dieter

    2017-12-01

    High Asia has experienced strong environmental changes in recent decades, as evident in records of glaciers, lakes, tree rings, and vegetation. The multiscale understanding of the climatic drivers, however, is still incomplete. In particular, few systematic assessments have evaluated to what degree, if at all, the midlatitude westerly circulation modifies local surface climates in the reach of the Indian Summer Monsoon. This paper shows that a southward shift of the upper-tropospheric westerlies contributes significantly to climate variability in the core monsoon season (July-September) by two prominent dipole patterns at the surface: cooling in the west of High Asia contrasts with warming in the east, while moist anomalies in the east and northwest occur with drying along the southwestern margins. Circulation anomalies help to understand the dipoles and coincide with shifts in both the westerly wave train and the South Asian High, which imprint on air mass advection and local energy budgets. The relation of the variabilities to a well-established index of midlatitude climate dynamics allows future research on climate proxies to include a fresh hypothesis for the interpretation of environmental changes.

  2. Global Monitoring RSEM System for Crop Production by Incorporating Satellite-based Photosynthesis Rates and Anomaly Data of Sea Surface Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, D.; Sakuma, H.

    2014-12-01

    The first author has been developing RSEM crop-monitoring system using satellite-based assessment of photosynthesis, incorporating meteorological conditions. Crop production comprises of several stages and plural mechanisms based on leaf photosynthesis, surface energy balance, and the maturing of grains after fixation of CO2, along with water exchange through soil vegetation-atmosphere transfer. Grain production in prime countries appears to be randomly perturbed regionally and globally. Weather for crop plants reflects turbulent phenomena of convective and advection flows in atmosphere and surface boundary layer. It has been difficult for scientists to simulate and forecast weather correctly for sufficiently long terms to crop harvesting. However, severely poor harvests related to continental events must originate from a consistent mechanism of abnormal energetic flow in the atmosphere through both land and oceans. It should be remembered that oceans have more than 100 times of energy storage compared to atmosphere and ocean currents represent gigantic energy flows, strongly affecting climate. Anomalies of Sea Surface Temperature (SST), globally known as El Niño, Indian Ocean dipole, and Atlantic Niño etc., affect the seasonal climate on a continental scale. The authors aim to combine monitoring and seasonal forecasting, considering such mechanisms through land-ocean biosphere transfer. The present system produces assessments for all continents, specifically monitoring agricultural fields of main crops. Historical regions of poor and good harvests are compared with distributions of SST anomalies, which are provided by NASA GSFC. Those comparisons fairly suggest that the Worst harvest in 1993 and the Best in 1994 relate to the offshore distribution of low temperature anomalies and high gaps in ocean surface temperatures. However, high-temperature anomalies supported good harvests because of sufficient solar radiation for photosynthesis, and poor harvests because

  3. Land-surface initialisation improves seasonal climate prediction skill for maize yield forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceglar, Andrej; Toreti, Andrea; Prodhomme, Chloe; Zampieri, Matteo; Turco, Marco; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J

    2018-01-22

    Seasonal crop yield forecasting represents an important source of information to maintain market stability, minimise socio-economic impacts of crop losses and guarantee humanitarian food assistance, while it fosters the use of climate information favouring adaptation strategies. As climate variability and extremes have significant influence on agricultural production, the early prediction of severe weather events and unfavourable conditions can contribute to the mitigation of adverse effects. Seasonal climate forecasts provide additional value for agricultural applications in several regions of the world. However, they currently play a very limited role in supporting agricultural decisions in Europe, mainly due to the poor skill of relevant surface variables. Here we show how a combined stress index (CSI), considering both drought and heat stress in summer, can predict maize yield in Europe and how land-surface initialised seasonal climate forecasts can be used to predict it. The CSI explains on average nearly 53% of the inter-annual maize yield variability under observed climate conditions and shows how concurrent heat stress and drought events have influenced recent yield anomalies. Seasonal climate forecast initialised with realistic land-surface achieves better (and marginally useful) skill in predicting the CSI than with climatological land-surface initialisation in south-eastern Europe, part of central Europe, France and Italy.

  4. Detecting geothermal anomalies and evaluating LST geothermal component by combining thermal remote sensing time series and land surface model data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Romaguera, M.; Vaughan, R. G.; Ettema, J.; Izquierdo-Verdiguier, E.; Hecker, C. A.; van der Meer, F. D.

    This paper explores for the first time the possibilities to use two land surface temperature (LST) time series of different origins (geostationary Meteosat Second Generation satellite data and Noah land surface modelling, LSM), to detect geothermal anomalies and extract the geothermal component of

  5. Detecting geothermal anomalies and evaluating LST geothermal component by combining thermal remote sensing time series and land surface model data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Romaguera, M.; Vaughan, R. G.; Ettema, J.; Izquierdo-Verdiguier, E.; Hecker, C. A.; van der Meer, F. D.

    2017-01-01

    This paper explores for the first time the possibilities to use two land surface temperature (LST) time series of different origins (geostationary Meteosat Second Generation satellite data and Noah land surface modelling, LSM), to detect geothermal anomalies and extract the geothermal component of

  6. Low frequency variability of the Indian Ocean from TOPEX/POSEIDON sea surface height anomalies

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Somayajulu, Y.K.; Murty, V.S.N.; Sarma, Y.V.B.

    and off Sumatra present large variability on both seasonal and inter-annual time scales. The SSH anomalies off Sumatra show dominant influence of warm (cold) ENSO events with peak negative (positive) anomalies coinciding with El Nino (La Nina...

  7. Climate variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age based on ostracod faunas and shell geochemistry from Biscayne Bay, Florida: Chapter 14

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.; Wingard, G. Lynn; Dwyer, Gary S.; Swart, Peter K.; Willard, Debra A.; Albietz, Jessica

    2012-01-01

    An 800-year-long environmental history of Biscayne Bay, Florida, is reconstructed from ostracod faunal and shell geochemical (oxygen, carbon isotopes, Mg/Ca ratios) studies of sediment cores from three mudbanks in the central and southern parts of the bay. Using calibrations derived from analyses of modern Biscayne and Florida Bay ostracods, palaeosalinity oscillations associated with changes in precipitation were identified. These oscillations reflect multidecadal- and centennial-scale climate variability associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation during the late Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). Evidence suggests wetter regional climate during the MCA and drier conditions during the LIA. In addition, twentieth century anthropogenic modifications to Everglades hydrology influenced bay circulation and/or processes controlling carbon isotopic composition.

  8. Advection and diffusion in random media implications for sea surface temperature anomalies

    CERN Document Server

    Piterbarg, Leonid I

    1997-01-01

    The book presents the foundations of the theory of turbulent transport within the context of stochastic partial differential equations. It serves to establish a firm connection between rigorous and non-rigorous results concerning turbulent diffusion. Mathematically all of the issues addressed in this book are concentrated around a single linear equation: stochastic advection-diffusion (transport) equation. There is no attempt made to derive universal statistics for turbulent flow. Instead emphasis is placed on a statistical description of a passive scalar (tracer) under given velocity statistics. An application concerning transport of sea surface temperature anomalies reconciles the developed theory and a highly practical issue of modern physical oceanography by using the newly designed inversion techniques which take advantage of powerful maximum likelihood and autoregressive estimators. Audience: Graduate students and researchers in mathematics, fluid dynamics, and physical oceanography.

  9. On the relationship between Indian summer monsoon withdrawal and Indo-Pacific SST anomalies before and after 1976/1977 climate shift

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sabeerali, C.T.; Rao, Suryachandra A. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India); Ajayamohan, R.S. [University of Victoria, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); Murtugudde, Raghu [University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States)

    2012-08-15

    A clear shift in the withdrawal dates of the Indian Summer Monsoon is observed in the long term time series of rainfall data. Prior (posterior) to the 1976/1977 climate shift most of the withdrawal dates are associated with a late (an early) withdrawal. As a result, the length of the rainy season (LRS) over the Indian land mass has also undergone similar changes (i.e., longer (shorter) LRS prior (posterior) to the climate shift). In this study, probable reasons for this significant shift in withdrawal dates and the LRS are investigated using reanalysis/observed datasets and also with the help of an atmospheric general circulation model. Reanalysis/observational datasets indicate that prior to the climate shift the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Arabian Sea exerted a strong influence on both the withdrawal and the LRS. After the climate shift, the influence of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean SST has decreased and surprisingly, the influence of the Arabian Sea SST is almost non-existent. On the other hand, the influence of the southeastern equatorial Indian Ocean has increased significantly. It is observed that the upper tropospheric temperature gradient over the dominant monsoon region has decreased and the relative influence of the Indian Ocean SST variability on the withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon has increased in the post climate shift period. Sensitivity experiments with the contrasting SST patterns on withdrawal dates and the LRS in the pre- and post- climate shift scenarios, confirm the observational evidences presented above. (orig.)

  10. A regime shift in the Sun-Climate connection with the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smirnov, D A; Breitenbach, S F M; Feulner, G; Lechleitner, F A; Prufer, K M; Baldini, J U L; Marwan, N; Kurths, J

    2017-09-11

    Understanding the influence of changes in solar activity on Earth's climate and distinguishing it from other forcings, such as volcanic activity, remains a major challenge for palaeoclimatology. This problem is best approached by investigating how these variables influenced past climate conditions as recorded in high precision paleoclimate archives. In particular, determining if the climate system response to these forcings changes through time is critical. Here we use the Wiener-Granger causality approach along with well-established cross-correlation analysis to investigate the causal relationship between solar activity, volcanic forcing, and climate as reflected in well-established Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) rainfall proxy records from Yok Balum Cave, southern Belize. Our analysis reveals a consistent influence of volcanic activity on regional Central American climate over the last two millennia. However, the coupling between solar variability and local climate varied with time, with a regime shift around 1000-1300 CE after which the solar-climate coupling weakened considerably.

  11. The role of forcing and internal dynamics in explaining the ''Medieval Climate Anomaly''

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goosse, Hugues; Crespin, Elisabeth; Dubinkina, Svetlana; Loutre, Marie-France; Sallaz-Damaz, Yoann [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Earth and Life Institute, Georges Lemaitre Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Mann, Michael E. [Pennsylvania State University, Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, University Park, PA (United States); Renssen, Hans [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Section Climate Change and Landscape Dynamics, Department of Earth Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Shindell, Drew [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, NY (United States)

    2012-12-15

    Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming. (orig.)

  12. Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Area-averaged 850-hPa Western Pacific Trade Wind Anomalies

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It is the 850-hPa trade wind anomalies averaged over the area 5oN ? 5oS, 135oE-180o (western equatorial...

  13. Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Area-averaged 850-hPa Eastern Pacific Trade Wind Anomalies

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It is the 850-hPa trade wind anomalies averaged over the area 5oN ? 5oS, 135oW-120oW (eastern...

  14. Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Area-averaged 850-hPa Central Pacific Trade Wind Anomalies

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It is the 850-hPa trade wind anomalies averaged over the area 5oN ? 5oS, 175oW-140oW (central...

  15. The effects of sea surface temperature anomalies on oceanic coral reef systems in the southwestern tropical Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, B. P.; Costa, M. B. S. F.; Coxey, M. S.; Gaspar, A. L. B.; Veleda, D.; Araujo, M.

    2013-06-01

    In 2010, high sea surface temperatures that were recorded in several parts of the world and caused coral bleaching and coral mortality were also recorded in the southwest Atlantic Ocean, between latitudes 0°S and 8°S. This paper reports on coral bleaching and diseases in Rocas Atoll and Fernando de Noronha archipelago and examines their relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies recorded by PIRATA buoys located at 8°S30°W, 0°S35°W, and 0°S23°W. Adjusted satellite data were used to derive SST climatological means at buoy sites and to derive anomalies at reef sites. The whole region was affected by the elevated temperature anomaly that persisted through 2010, reaching 1.67 °C above average at reef sites and 1.83 °C above average at buoys sites. A significant positive relationship was found between the percentage of coral bleaching that was observed on reef formations and the corresponding HotSpot SST anomaly recorded by both satellite and buoys. These results indicate that the warming observed in the ocean waters was followed by a warming at the reefs. The percentage of bleached corals persisting after the subsidence of the thermal stress, and disease prevalence increased through 2010, after two periods of thermal stress. The in situ temperature anomaly observed during the 2009-2010 El Niño event was equivalent to the anomaly observed during the 1997-1998 El Niño event, explaining similar bleaching intensity. Continued monitoring efforts are necessary to further assess the relationship between bleaching severity and PIRATA SST anomalies and improve the use of this new dataset in future regional bleaching predictions.

  16. Surface radiation fluxes in transient climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garratt, J. R.; O'Brien, D. M.; Dix, M. R.; Murphy, J. M.; Stephens, G. L.; Wild, M.

    1999-01-01

    Transient CO 2 experiments from five coupled climate models, in which the CO 2 concentration increases at rates of 0.6-1.1% per annum for periods of 75-200 years, are used to document the responses of surface radiation fluxes, and associated atmospheric properties, to the CO 2 increase. In all five models, the responses of global surface temperature and column water vapour are non-linear and fairly tightly constrained. Thus, global warming lies between 1.9 and 2.7 K at doubled, and between 3.1 and 4.1 K at tripled, CO 2, whilst column water vapour increases by between 3.5 and 4.5 mm at doubled, and between 7 and 8 mm at tripled, CO 2. Global cloud fraction tends to decrease by 1-2% out to tripled CO 2, mainly the result of decreases in low cloud. Global increases in column water, and differences in these increases between models, are mainly determined by the warming of the tropical oceans relative to the middle and high latitudes; these links are emphasised in the zonal profiles of warming and column water vapour increase, with strong water vapour maxima in the tropics. In all models the all-sky shortwave flux to the surface S↓ (global, annual average) changes by less than 5 W m -2 out to tripled CO 2, in some cases being essentially invariant in time. In contrast, the longwave flux to the surface L↓ increases significantly, by 25 W m -2 typically at tripled CO 2. The variations of S↓ and L↓ (clear-sky and all-sky fluxes) with increase in CO 2 concentration are generally non-linear, reflecting the effects of ocean thermal inertia, but as functions of global warming are close to linear in all five models. This is best illustrated for the clear-sky downwelling fluxes, and the net radiation. Regionally, as illustrated in zonal profiles and global distributions, greatest changes in both S↓ and L↓ are the result primarily of local maxima in warming and column water vapour increases.

  17. Nonadiabatic effects on surfaces: Kohn anomaly, electronic damping of adsorbate vibrations, and local heating of single molecules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroeger, J

    2008-01-01

    Three aspects of electron-phonon coupling at metal surfaces are reviewed. One aspect is the Kohn effect, which describes an anomalous dispersion relation of surface phonons due to quasi-one-dimensional nesting of Fermi surface contours. The combination of electron energy loss spectroscopy and angle-resolved photoelectron spectroscopy allows us to unambiguously characterize Kohn anomaly systems. A second aspect is the nonadiabatic damping of adsorbate vibrations. Characteristic spectroscopic line shapes of vibrational modes allow us to estimate the amount of energy transfer between the vibrational mode and electron-hole pairs. Case studies of a Kohn anomaly and nonadiabatic damping are provided by the hydrogen- and deuterium-covered Mo(110) surface. As a third aspect of interaction between electrons and phonons, local heating of a C 60 molecule adsorbed on Cu(100) and in contact with the tip of a scanning tunnelling microscope is covered

  18. Impact of climate change and climate anomalies on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes in an agricultural catchment of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagena, Moges B; Collick, Amy S; Ross, Andrew C; Najjar, Raymond G; Rau, Benjamin; Sommerlot, Andrew R; Fuka, Daniel R; Kleinman, Peter J A; Easton, Zachary M

    2018-05-16

    Nutrient export from agricultural landscapes is a water quality concern and the cause of mitigation activities worldwide. Climate change impacts hydrology and nutrient cycling by changing soil moisture, stoichiometric nutrient ratios, and soil temperature, potentially complicating mitigation measures. This research quantifies the impact of climate change and climate anomalies on hydrology, nutrient cycling, and greenhouse gas emissions in an agricultural catchment of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. We force a calibrated model with seven downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate models and derived climate anomalies to assess their impact on hydrology and the export of nitrate (NO 3 -), phosphorus (P), and sediment, and emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and di-nitrogen (N 2 ). Model-average (±standard deviation) results indicate that climate change, through an increase in precipitation and temperature, will result in substantial increases in winter/spring flow (10.6 ± 12.3%), NO 3 - (17.3 ± 6.4%), dissolved P (32.3 ± 18.4%), total P (24.8 ± 16.9%), and sediment (25.2 ± 16.6%) export, and a slight increases in N 2 O (0.3 ± 4.8%) and N 2 (0.2 ± 11.8%) emissions. Conversely, decreases in summer flow (-29.1 ± 24.6%) and the export of dissolved P (-15.5 ± 26.4%), total P (-16.3 ± 20.7%), sediment (-20.7 ± 18.3%), and NO 3 - (-29.1 ± 27.8%) are driven by greater evapotranspiration from increasing summer temperatures. Decreases in N 2 O (-26.9 ± 15.7%) and N 2 (-36.6 ± 22.9%) are predicted in the summer and driven by drier soils. While the changes in flow are related directly to changes in precipitation and temperature, the changes in nutrient and sediment export are, to some extent, driven by changes in agricultural management that climate change induces, such as earlier spring tillage and altered nutrient application timing and by alterations to nutrient cycling in the soil. Copyright © 2018

  19. Decadal prediction skill in the ocean with surface nudging in the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model

    OpenAIRE

    Mignot , Juliette; García-Serrano , Javier; Swingedouw , Didier; Germe , Agathe; Nguyen , Sébastien; Ortega , Pablo; Guilyardi , Éric; Ray , Sulagna

    2016-01-01

    International audience; Two decadal prediction ensembles, based on the same climate model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) and the same surface nudging initialization strategy are analyzed and compared with a focus on upper-ocean variables in different regions of the globe. One ensemble consists of 3-member hindcasts launched every year since 1961 while the other ensemble benefits from 9 members but with start dates only every 5 years. Analysis includes anomaly correlation coefficients and root mean square err...

  20. Spatial Correlations of Anomaly Time Series of AIRS Version-6 Land Surface Skin Temperatures with the Nino-4 Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susskind, Joel; Lee, Jae N.; Iredell, Lena

    2013-01-01

    The AIRS Science Team Version-6 data set is a valuable resource for meteorological studies. Quality Controlled earth's surface skin temperatures are produced on a 45 km x 45 km spatial scale under most cloud cover conditions. The same retrieval algorithm is used for all surface types under all conditions. This study used eleven years of AIRS monthly mean surface skin temperature and cloud cover products to show that land surface skin temperatures have decreased significantly in some areas and increased significantly in other areas over the period September 2002 through August 2013. These changes occurred primarily at 1:30 PM but not at 1:30 AM. Cooling land areas contained corresponding increases in cloud cover over this time period, with the reverse being true for warming land areas. The cloud cover anomaly patterns for a given month are affected significantly by El Nino/La Nina activity, and anomalies in cloud cover are a driving force behind anomalies in land surface skin temperature.

  1. Analysis on Climatic Characteristics of the Precipitation Anomaly in Southwest China in Recent 60 Years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG; Rong; PANG; Jing; QIN; Jun

    2012-01-01

    [Objective]The research aimed to analyze temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of the precipitation anomaly in southwest China from 1951 to 2010. [Method] Based on monthly precipitation data at 44 stations of southwest China and 160 stations of China from 1951 to 2010, by using EOF analysis, wavelet analysis and composite analysis, monthly and seasonal change rules of the precipitation in southwest China were analyzed. Corresponding spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of the precipitation in drought and flood years were studied. Temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of the precipitation anomaly in southwest China in recent 60 years were revealed. [Result]Seasonal distribution of the precipitation in southwest China was uneven and was typical single-peak type. Precipitation concentrated from May to September, and peak appeared in July. In recent years, rainfall in autumn significantly became less, while that in other seasons had no obvious change. Precipitation in summer had the cycle of 14 years, another for 6 years and 3-4 years of periodic oscillations. In wet years, precipitation in southwest China had same phase with that in southern China, and anti-phase with that in the junction of Qinghai, Gansu, Xinjiang and Tibet. In dry years, precipitation in southwest China had same phase with that in the eastern part of northwest China and northern China. [Conclusion]The research provided reference basis for prediction and pre-warning of the precipitation in the zone.

  2. The winter of 1827-1828 over eastern North America. A season of extraordinary climatic anomalies, societal impacts, and false spring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mock, C.J.; McWaters, M. [Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, 29208 (United States); Mojzisek, J. [Department of Geography, University of Otago, P.O. Box 56, Dunedin, (New Zealand); Chenoweth, M. [Independent Scholar, 6816 Ducketts Lane, Elkridge, MD, 21075 (United States); Stahle, D.W. [Department of Geosciences, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, 72701 (United States)

    2007-07-15

    This study reconstructed the weather and its impacts on society for the winter of 1827-1828, focusing on the eastern United States. Data comprise of daily and monthly instrumental records, diaries with both daily and seasonal resolution, newspapers, fur trapper accounts, and tree-rings. Temperature anomalies were calculated and mapped based on the means during the 1820-1840 period to account for different fixed observation times. Precipitation frequencies provided direct comparisons of the 1827-1828 weather with modern climatic normals. Daily plots of temperature also reveal weather variations at daily timeframes. Results indicate that the eastern United States experienced strong positive temperature anomalies that are among the most extreme known in the historical record, particularly its large spatial extent. In contrast, historical evidence reveals strong negative temperature anomalies over northwestern North America, and positive temperature anomalies are evident for coastal Alaska. These temperature anomaly patterns sharply contrast to what is normally experienced during a warm El Nino event. Furthermore, results clearly describe remarkable climatic impacts in the Southeast U.S., including widespread blossoming of fruit trees in mid-winter (false spring) that led to a widespread severe killing frost in early April of 1828. Widespread positive precipitation frequency anomalies are also evident for much of the Southeast U.S., which also played a prominent role on winter vegetation growth. Other weather events and impacts include unusual opening of river traffic in winter in New England, severe flooding in the Mississippi River Valley, and heavy snowfall in northwestern North America.

  3. Late Holocene flood probabilities in the Black Hills, South Dakota with emphasis on the Medieval Climate Anomaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harden, Tessa M.; O'Connor, James E.; Driscoll, Daniel G.

    2015-01-01

    A stratigraphic record of 35 large paleofloods and four large historical floods during the last 2000 years for four basins in the Black Hills of South Dakota reveals three long-term flooding episodes, identified using probability distributions, at A.D.: 120–395, 900–1290, and 1410 to present. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (~ A.D. 900–1300) the four basins collectively experienced 13 large floods compared to nine large floods in the previous 800 years, including the largest floods of the last 2000 years for two of the four basins. This high concentration of extreme floods is likely caused by one or more of the following: 1) instability of air masses caused by stronger than normal westerlies; 2) larger or more frequent hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean; and/or 3) reduced land covering vegetation or increased forest fires caused by persistent regional drought.

  4. Postoperative assessment of surgical results using three dimensional surface reconstruction CT (3D-CT) in a craniofacial anomaly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishimura, Jiro; Sato, Kaoru; Nishimoto, Hiroshi; Tsukiyama, Takashi; Fujioka, Mutsuhisa; Akagawa, Tetsuya.

    1988-01-01

    In 1983, Michael W. Vannier and Jeffrey L. Marsh developed a computer method that reconstructs three dimensional (3D) born and soft tissue surfaces, given a high resolution CT scan-series of the facial skeleton. This method has been applied to craniofacial anomalies, basal encephaloceles, and musculoskeletal anomalies. In this study, a postoperative assessment of the craniofacial surgical results has been accomplished using this 3D-CT in 2 children with craniofacial dysmorphism. The authors discuss the advantages of this 3D-CT imaging method in the postoperative assessments of craniofacial anomalies. Results are detailed in the following listing : 1) a postoperative 3D-CT reveals the anatomical details corrected by the craniofacial surgery more precisely and stereographically than conventional radiological methods ; 2) secondary changes of the cranium after the surgery, such as bony formation in the area of the osteotomy and postoperative asymmetric deformities, are detected early by the 3D-CT imaging technique, and, 3) 3D-CT mid-sagittal and top axial views of the intracranial skull base are most useful in postoperative assessments of the surgical results. Basesd on our experience, we expect that three dimensional surface reconstructions from CT scans will become to be used widely in the postoperative assessments of the surgical results of craniofacial anomalies. (author)

  5. Full Field and Anomaly Initialisation using a low order climate model: a comparison, and proposals for advanced formulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Robin; Carrassi, Alberto; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Volpi, Danila

    2014-05-01

    Full Field (FFI) and Anomaly Initialisation (AI) are two schemes used to initialise seasonal-to-decadal (s2d) prediction. FFI initialises the model on the best estimate of the actual climate state and minimises the initial error. However, due to inevitable model deficiencies, the trajectories drift away from the observations towards the model's own attractor, inducing a bias in the forecast. AI has been devised to tackle the impact of drift through the addition of this bias onto the observations, in the hope of gaining an initial state closer to the model attractor. Its goal is to forecast climate anomalies. The large variety of experimental setups, global coupled models, and observational networks adopted world-wide have led to varying results with regards to the relative performance of AI and FFI. Our research is firstly motivated in a comparison of these two initialisation approaches under varying circumstances of observational errors, observational distributions, and model errors. We also propose and compare two advanced schemes for s2d prediction. Least Square Initialisation (LSI) intends to propagate observational information of partially initialized systems to the whole model domain, based on standard practices in data assimilation and using the covariance of the model anomalies. Exploring the Parameters Uncertainty (EPU) is an online drift correction technique applied during the forecast run after initialisation. It is designed to estimate, and subtract, the bias in the forecast related to parametric error. Experiments are carried out using an idealized coupled dynamics in order to facilitate better control and robust statistical inference. Results show that an improvement of FFI will necessitate refinements in the observations, whereas improvements in AI are subject to model advances. A successful approximation of the model attractor using AI is guaranteed only when the differences between model and nature probability distribution functions (PDFs) are

  6. Trends in seasonal warm anomalies across the contiguous United States: Contributions from natural climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Warren E. Heilman; Xindi. Bian

    2018-01-01

    Many studies have shown the importance of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in contributing to observed upward trends in the occurrences of temperature extremes over the U.S. However, few studies have investigated the contributions of internal variability in the climate system to these observed trends. Here we use daily maximum temperature time series from the...

  7. Climate effects on inter- and intra-annual larch stemwood anomalies in the Mongolian forest-steppe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khishigjargal, Mookhor; Dulamsuren, Choimaa; Leuschner, Hanns Hubert; Leuschner, Christoph; Hauck, Markus

    2014-02-01

    Climate response of tree-ring width and intra-annual wood anomalies were studied in stands of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica) on Mt. Bogd Uul in the forest-steppe ecotone of Mongolia. Climate on Mt. Bogd Uul is characterized by an increase of the annual mean temperature by 1.5 K between 1965 and 2007, the lack of a long-term trend for annual precipitation and, with it, an increase in aridity. Tree-ring width increases with increasing June precipitation of the current year (June) and increasing late summer precipitation of the previous year. In >100-year old trees, also a negative correlation of tree-ring width with the July temperature of the year prior to tree-ring formation was found. Decreasing tree-ring width with increasing snowfall in December can be explained with the protection of the frost-sensitive eggs of gypsy moth by snow cover, which is a major herbivore of larch in Mongolia and causes reduction in the annual stem increment. The most significant change in wood anatomy was the decline of wide latewood, which is attributable to the increase of summer days with a mean temperature > 15 °C and drought periods in summer without precipitation. Increasing summer drought is also thought to have caused the repeated occurrence of missing rings since the 1960s, which were not observed in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

  8. Full-field and anomaly initialization using a low-order climate model: a comparison and proposals for advanced formulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrassi, A.; Weber, R. J. T.; Guemas, V.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Asif, M.; Volpi, D.

    2014-04-01

    Initialization techniques for seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions fall into two main categories; namely full-field initialization (FFI) and anomaly initialization (AI). In the FFI case the initial model state is replaced by the best possible available estimate of the real state. By doing so the initial error is efficiently reduced but, due to the unavoidable presence of model deficiencies, once the model is let free to run a prediction, its trajectory drifts away from the observations no matter how small the initial error is. This problem is partly overcome with AI where the aim is to forecast future anomalies by assimilating observed anomalies on an estimate of the model climate. The large variety of experimental setups, models and observational networks adopted worldwide make it difficult to draw firm conclusions on the respective advantages and drawbacks of FFI and AI, or to identify distinctive lines for improvement. The lack of a unified mathematical framework adds an additional difficulty toward the design of adequate initialization strategies that fit the desired forecast horizon, observational network and model at hand. Here we compare FFI and AI using a low-order climate model of nine ordinary differential equations and use the notation and concepts of data assimilation theory to highlight their error scaling properties. This analysis suggests better performances using FFI when a good observational network is available and reveals the direct relation of its skill with the observational accuracy. The skill of AI appears, however, mostly related to the model quality and clear increases of skill can only be expected in coincidence with model upgrades. We have compared FFI and AI in experiments in which either the full system or the atmosphere and ocean were independently initialized. In the former case FFI shows better and longer-lasting improvements, with skillful predictions until month 30. In the initialization of single compartments, the best

  9. Impacts of the leading modes of tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly on sub-seasonal evolution of the circulation and rainfall over East Asia during boreal spring and summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Senfeng; Duan, Anmin

    2017-02-01

    The two leading modes of the interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly are the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) and the Indian Ocean dipole mode (IODM) from March to August. In this paper, the relationship between the TIO SST anomaly and the sub-seasonal evolution of the circulation and rainfall over East Asia during boreal spring and summer is investigated by using correlation analysis and composite analysis based on multi-source observation data from 1979 to 2013, together with numerical simulations from an atmospheric general circulation model. The results indicate that the impacts of the IOBM on the circulation and rainfall over East Asia vary remarkably from spring to summer. The anomalous anticyclone over the tropical Northwest Pacific induced by the warm IOBM is closely linked with the Pacific-Japan or East Asia-Pacific teleconnection pattern, which persists from March to August. In the upper troposphere over East Asia, the warm phase of the IOBM generates a significant anticyclonic response from March to May. In June and July, however, the circulation response is characterized by enhanced subtropical westerly flow. A distinct anomalous cyclone is found in August. Overall, the IOBM can exert significant influence on the western North Pacific subtropical high, the South Asian high, and the East Asian jet, which collectively modulate the precipitation anomaly over East Asia. In contrast, the effects of the IODM on the climate anomaly over East Asia are relatively weak in boreal spring and summer. Therefore, studying the impacts of the TIO SST anomaly on the climate anomaly in East Asia should take full account of the different sub-seasonal response during boreal spring and summer.

  10. Characterizing ecosystem response to water supply changes inferred from GRACE drought severity index and surface soil moisture anomalies from ESA CCI and SMAP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, M.; Velicogna, I.; Kimball, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change such as more frequent heatwaves and drought is threatening our food security and ecosystem by reducing water supply to vegetation. Characterizing vegetation response to water supply changes is not only important for evaluating and mitigating climatic change impacts on ecosystem functions and services, but also to determine the feedback mechanisms that ecosystem response may generate on the climate itself. However, such characterization is not well-known at the global scale partly because large scale observations of underground water supply changes are limited. Satellite observations of soil moisture (SM) datasets such as from Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) and European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) do not penetrate more than a few centimeters and do not capture the entire root-zone. Here we employ a newly developed Drought Severity Index from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE-DSI) to complement SM observations by informing total water supply changes in the entire terrestrial hydrological cycle. We use MODIS vegetation indices as proxies for vegetation growth and investigate their seasonal and interannual variability in relation to GRACE-DSI. We find that total water supply constrains vegetation growth across the entire continental US. Water constraint begins at an earlier date of year and lasts for a longer period in the lower latitude than in the higher latitude. We also find that water constraint occurs at different phenological stages depending on vegetation type. For instance, water constrain forest growth during reproductive period in eastern US but constrain shrub land growth during green-up in Arizona (Fig. 1). In western United States, eastern Australia and the horn of Africa, we find that vegetation growth changes closely follows GRACE-DSI but can have 16-day to one-month delay with respect to SM anomalies from SMAP and ESA CCI. This suggests that in these regions, vegetation is sensitive to water

  11. Long-term change of potential evapotranspiration over Southwest China and teleconnections with large-scale climate anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, B.; Chen, X.; Li, Y.; Chen, Z.

    2017-12-01

    bstract: Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a sensitive factor for atmospheric and ecological systems over Southwest China which is characterized by intensive karst geomorphology and fragile environment. Based on daily meteorological data of 94 stations during 1961-2013, the spatiotemporal characteristics of PET are analyzed. The changing characteristics of local meteorological factors and large-scale climatic features are also investigated to explain the potential reasons for changing PET. Study results are as follows: (1) The high-value center of PET with a mean value of 1097 mm/a locates in the south mainly resulted from the regional climatic features of higher air temperature (TEM), sunshine duration (SSD) and lower relative humidity (RHU); and the low-value center of PET with a mean value of 831 mm/a is in the northeast primarily attributed to higher RHU and weaker SSD. (2) Annual PET decreases at -10.04 mm decade-1 before the year 2000 but increases at 50.65 mm decade-1 thereafter; and the dominant factors of PET change are SSD, RHU and wind speed (WIN), with the relative contributions of 33.29%, 25.42% and 22.16%, respectively. (3) The abrupt change of PET in 2000 is strongly dominated by large-scale climatic anomalies. The strengthened 850hPa geostrophic wind (0.51 ms-1 decade-1), weakened total cloud cover (-2.25 % decade-1) and 500hPa water vapor flux (-2.85 % decade-1) have provided advantageous dynamic, thermal and dry conditions for PET over Southwest China since the 21st century.

  12. The surface distribution of chemical anomalies of Ap components in detached close binaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitamura, M.

    1980-01-01

    By estimating the orbital inclinations of non-eclipsing detached close binaries with Ap spectra, a marked statistical preference is obtained on the frequency distribution of the inclination which suggests that the abundance anomalies of Ap components tend to concentrate towards the stellar polar region. (Auth.)

  13. Avances en el pronóstico climático de las anomalías de lluvia en la Región Pampeana Advances in the climatic forecast of rainfall anomalies in the Pampa Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan C. Labraga

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Los modelos globales de la circulación general de la atmósfera (MCGA son capaces de simular anomalías climáticas estadísticamente significativas de escala estacional o mayor, asociadas con anomalías en la temperatura de la superficie del mar. Los MCGA pueden estimar efectivamente el signo y la probabilidad de tales anomalías climáticas cuando su extensión es varias veces mayor que la resolución espacial del modelo. En este trabajo se presentan algunos avances en la estimación de las anomalías de la lluvia en 22 localidades de la Región Pampeana Argentina mediante downscaling estadístico de la información producida por un ensamble de veinte simulaciones con el MCGA CSIRO-9, prescribiendo la temperatura de la superficie del mar de acuerdo con los valores diarios observados en el período 1987-1998. El downscaling estadístico de la lluvia produjo una mayor correlación con las observaciones locales que los datos de lluvia del MCGA interpolados sobre cada sitio. Los resultados de un Análisis de las Componentes Principales aplicado a los datos observados y estimados indican que este método de downscaling permite discernir áreas con diferente comportamiento de la lluvia dentro de la región de estudio.Atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM are able to simulate statistically significant climate anomalies of seasonal or larger time-scales, associated with anomalies in the sea surface temperature. AGCMs can effectively estimate the sign and probability of such climate anomalies whenever their extent is several times greater than the spatial resolution of the model. Some progress attained in the estimation of rainfall anomalies in 22 sites of the Pampa Region, Argentina, by means of statistical downscaling of the output from an AGCM are presented in this work. Downscaling models were based in the multiple lineal regression method. Climatic anomalies of the atmospheric independent variables required in the rainfall downscaling

  14. Gridded 5-day mean sea surface height anomaly and significant wave height from Jason-1 and OSTM/Jason-2 satellites (NODC Accession 0065055)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This accession contains the gridded 5-day mean sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and Ku Band significant wave height (SWH-KU) observed from Jason-1 and OSTM/Jason-2...

  15. The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) - Global, 4 km, Sea Surface Temperature and Related Thermal Stress Metrics for 1985-2005 (NODC Accession 0044419)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) is a collection of sea surface temperature (SST) and related thermal stress metrics, developed specifically for...

  16. The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baehr, J.; Fröhlich, K.; Botzet, M.; Domeisen, D. I. V.; Kornblueh, L.; Notz, D.; Piontek, R.; Pohlmann, H.; Tietsche, S.; Müller, W. A.

    2015-05-01

    A seasonal forecast system is presented, based on the global coupled climate model MPI-ESM as used for CMIP5 simulations. We describe the initialisation of the system and analyse its predictive skill for surface temperature. The presented system is initialised in the atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice component of the model from reanalysis/observations with full field nudging in all three components. For the initialisation of the ensemble, bred vectors with a vertically varying norm are implemented in the ocean component to generate initial perturbations. In a set of ensemble hindcast simulations, starting each May and November between 1982 and 2010, we analyse the predictive skill. Bias-corrected ensemble forecasts for each start date reproduce the observed surface temperature anomalies at 2-4 months lead time, particularly in the tropics. Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies show a small root-mean-square error and predictive skill up to 6 months. Away from the tropics, predictive skill is mostly limited to the ocean, and to regions which are strongly influenced by ENSO teleconnections. In summary, the presented seasonal prediction system based on a coupled climate model shows predictive skill for surface temperature at seasonal time scales comparable to other seasonal prediction systems using different underlying models and initialisation strategies. As the same model underlying our seasonal prediction system—with a different initialisation—is presently also used for decadal predictions, this is an important step towards seamless seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions.

  17. Quantitative Examination of Piezoelectric/Seismoelectric Anomalies from Near-Surface Targets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lev Eppelbaum

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The piezoelectric and seismo-electrokinetic phenomena are manifested by electrical and electromagnetic processes that occur in rocks under the influence of elastic oscillations triggered by shots or mechanical impacts. Differences in piezoelectric properties between the studied targets and host media determine the possibilities of the piezoelectric/seismoelectric method application. Over a long time, an interpretation of obtained data is carried out by the use of methods developed in seismic prospecting. Examination of nature of piezoelectric/seismoelectric anomalies observed in subsurface indicates that these may be related (mainly to electric potential field. In this paper, it is shown that quantitative analysis of piezoelectric/seismoelectric anomalies may be performed by the advanced and reliable methodologies developed in magnetic prospecting. Some examples from mining geophysics (Russia and ancient metallurgical site (Israel confirm applicability of the suggested approach.

  18. Kohn anomalies in superconductors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flatte, M.E.

    1994-01-01

    The detailed behavior of phonon dispersion curves near momenta which span the electronic Fermi sea in a superconductor is presented. An anomaly, similar to the metallic Kohn anomaly, exists in a superconductor's dispersion curves when the frequency of the photon spanning the Fermi sea exceeds twice the superconducting energy gap. This anomaly occurs at approximately the same momentum but is stronger than the normal-state Kohn anomaly. It also survives at finite temperature, unlike the metallic anomaly. Determination of Fermi-surface diameters from the location of these anomalies, therefore, may be more successful in the superconducting phase than in the normal state. However, the superconductor's anomaly fades rapidly with increased phonon frequency and becomes unobservable when the phonon frequency greatly exceeds the gap. This constraint makes these anomalies useful only in high-temperature superconductors such as La 1.85 Sr 0.15 CuO 4

  19. MODELING THE ANOMALY OF SURFACE NUMBER DENSITIES OF GALAXIES ON THE GALACTIC EXTINCTION MAP DUE TO THEIR FIR EMISSION CONTAMINATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kashiwagi, Toshiya; Suto, Yasushi; Taruya, Atsushi; Yahata, Kazuhiro [Department of Physics, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Kayo, Issha [Department of Physics, Toho University, Funabashi, Chiba 274-8510 (Japan); Nishimichi, Takahiro, E-mail: kashiwagi@utap.phys.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Institute for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8568 (Japan)

    2015-02-01

    The most widely used Galactic extinction map is constructed assuming that the observed far-infrared (FIR) fluxes come entirely from Galactic dust. According to the earlier suggestion by Yahata et al., we consider how FIR emission of galaxies affects the SFD map. We first compute the surface number density of Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) DR7 galaxies as a function of the r-band extinction, A {sub r,} {sub SFD}. We confirm that the surface densities of those galaxies positively correlate with A {sub r,} {sub SFD} for A {sub r,} {sub SFD} < 0.1, as first discovered by Yahata et al. for SDSS DR4 galaxies. Next we construct an analytical model to compute the surface density of galaxies, taking into account the contamination of their FIR emission. We adopt a log-normal probability distribution for the ratio of 100 μm and r-band luminosities of each galaxy, y ≡ (νL){sub 100} {sub μm}/(νL) {sub r}. Then we search for the mean and rms values of y that fit the observed anomaly, using the analytical model. The required values to reproduce the anomaly are roughly consistent with those measured from the stacking analysis of SDSS galaxies. Due to the limitation of our statistical modeling, we are not yet able to remove the FIR contamination of galaxies from the extinction map. Nevertheless, the agreement with the model prediction suggests that the FIR emission of galaxies is mainly responsible for the observed anomaly. Whereas the corresponding systematic error in the Galactic extinction map is 0.1-1 mmag, it is directly correlated with galaxy clustering and thus needs to be carefully examined in precision cosmology.

  20. Conversion of time-varying Stokes coefficients into mass anomalies at the Earth's surface considering the Earth's oblateness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ditmar, Pavel

    2018-02-01

    Time-varying Stokes coefficients estimated from GRACE satellite data are routinely converted into mass anomalies at the Earth's surface with the expression proposed for that purpose by Wahr et al. (J Geophys Res 103(B12):30,205-30,229, 1998). However, the results obtained with it represent mass transport at the spherical surface of 6378 km radius. We show that the accuracy of such conversion may be insufficient, especially if the target area is located in a polar region and the signal-to-noise ratio is high. For instance, the peak values of mean linear trends in 2003-2015 estimated over Greenland and Amundsen Sea embayment of West Antarctica may be underestimated in this way by about 15%. As a solution, we propose an updated expression for the conversion of Stokes coefficients into mass anomalies. This expression is based on the assumptions that: (i) mass transport takes place at the reference ellipsoid and (ii) at each point of interest, the ellipsoidal surface is approximated by the sphere with a radius equal to the current radial distance from the Earth's center ("locally spherical approximation"). The updated expression is nearly as simple as the traditionally used one but reduces the inaccuracies of the conversion procedure by an order of magnitude. In addition, we remind the reader that the conversion expressions are defined in spherical (geocentric) coordinates. We demonstrate that the difference between mass anomalies computed in spherical and ellipsoidal (geodetic) coordinates may not be negligible, so that a conversion of geodetic colatitudes into geocentric ones should not be omitted.

  1. Vegetation greenness and land carbon-flux anomalies associated with climate variations: a focus on the year 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Yue

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the variations in global land carbon uptake, and their driving mechanisms, is essential if we are to predict future carbon-cycle feedbacks on global environmental changes. Satellite observations of vegetation greenness have shown consistent greening across the globe over the past three decades. Such greening has driven the increasing land carbon sink, especially over the growing season in northern latitudes. On the other hand, interannual variations in land carbon uptake are strongly influenced by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO climate variations. Marked reductions in land uptake and strong positive anomalies in the atmospheric CO2 growth rates occur during El Niño events. Here we use the year 2015 as a natural experiment to examine the possible response of land ecosystems to a combination of vegetation greening and an El Niño event. The year 2015 was the greenest year since 2000 according to satellite observations, but a record atmospheric CO2 growth rate also occurred due to a weaker than usual land carbon sink. Two atmospheric inversions indicate that the year 2015 had a higher than usual northern land carbon uptake in boreal spring and summer, consistent with the positive greening anomaly and strong warming. This strong uptake was, however, followed by a larger source of CO2 in the autumn. For the year 2015, enhanced autumn carbon release clearly offset the extra uptake associated with greening during the summer. This finding leads us to speculate that a long-term greening trend may foster more uptakes during the growing season, but no large increase in annual carbon sequestration. For the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, a strong transition towards a large carbon source for the last 3 months of 2015 is discovered, concomitant with El Niño development. This transition of terrestrial tropical CO2 fluxes between two consecutive seasons is the largest ever found in the inversion records. The strong transition to a

  2. Vegetation greenness and land carbon-flux anomalies associated with climate variations: a focus on the year 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Chao; Ciais, Philippe; Bastos, Ana; Chevallier, Frederic; Yin, Yi; Rödenbeck, Christian; Park, Taejin

    2017-11-01

    Understanding the variations in global land carbon uptake, and their driving mechanisms, is essential if we are to predict future carbon-cycle feedbacks on global environmental changes. Satellite observations of vegetation greenness have shown consistent greening across the globe over the past three decades. Such greening has driven the increasing land carbon sink, especially over the growing season in northern latitudes. On the other hand, interannual variations in land carbon uptake are strongly influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate variations. Marked reductions in land uptake and strong positive anomalies in the atmospheric CO2 growth rates occur during El Niño events. Here we use the year 2015 as a natural experiment to examine the possible response of land ecosystems to a combination of vegetation greening and an El Niño event. The year 2015 was the greenest year since 2000 according to satellite observations, but a record atmospheric CO2 growth rate also occurred due to a weaker than usual land carbon sink. Two atmospheric inversions indicate that the year 2015 had a higher than usual northern land carbon uptake in boreal spring and summer, consistent with the positive greening anomaly and strong warming. This strong uptake was, however, followed by a larger source of CO2 in the autumn. For the year 2015, enhanced autumn carbon release clearly offset the extra uptake associated with greening during the summer. This finding leads us to speculate that a long-term greening trend may foster more uptakes during the growing season, but no large increase in annual carbon sequestration. For the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, a strong transition towards a large carbon source for the last 3 months of 2015 is discovered, concomitant with El Niño development. This transition of terrestrial tropical CO2 fluxes between two consecutive seasons is the largest ever found in the inversion records. The strong transition to a carbon source in the

  3. Anomaly in the rainfall-runoff behaviour of the Meuse catchment. Climate, land-use, or land-use management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Fenicia

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to investigate the time variability of catchment characteristics in the Meuse basin through its effect on catchment response. The approach uses a conceptual model to represent rainfall-runoff behaviour of this catchment, and evaluates possible time-dependence of model parameters. The main hypothesis is that conceptual model parameters, although not measurable quantities, are representative of specific catchment attributes (e.g. geology, land-use, land management, topography. Hence, we assume that eventual trends in model parameters are representative of catchment attributes that may have changed over time. The available hydrological record involves ninety years of data, starting in 1911. During this period the Meuse catchment has undergone significant modifications. The catchment structural modifications, although documented, are not available as "hard-data". Hence, our results should be considered as "plausible hypotheses". The main motivation of this work is the "anomaly" found in the rainfall runoff behaviour of the Meuse basin, where ninety years of rainfall-runoff simulations show a consistent overestimation of the runoff in the period between 1930 and 1965. Different authors have debated possible causes for the "anomaly", including climatic variability, land-use change and data errors. None of the authors considered the way in which the land is used by for instance agricultural and forestry practises. This aspect influenced the model design, which has been configured to account for different evaporation demand of growing forest. As a result of our analysis, we conclude that the lag time of the catchment has decreased significantly over time, which we attribute to more intensive drainage and river training works. Furthermore, we hypothesise that forest rotation has had a significant impact on the evaporation of the catchment. These results contrast with previous studies, where the effect of land-use change on

  4. The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) Contribution to CMIP6: Investigation of Sea-Level and Ocean Climate Change in Response to CO2 Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Jonathan M.; Bouttes, Nathaelle; Griffies, Stephen M.; Haak, Helmuth; Hurlin, William J.; Jungclaus, Johann; Kelley, Maxwell; Lee, Warren G.; Marshall, John; Romanou, Anastasia; hide

    2016-01-01

    The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) aims to investigate the spread in simulations of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing by atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). It is particularly motivated by the uncertainties in projections of ocean heat uptake, global-mean sealevel rise due to thermal expansion and the geographical patterns of sea-level change due to ocean density and circulation change. FAFMIP has three tier-1 experiments, in which prescribed surface flux perturbations of momentum, heat and freshwater respectively are applied to the ocean in separate AOGCM simulations. All other conditions are as in the pre-industrial control. The prescribed fields are typical of pattern and magnitude of changes in these fluxes projected by AOGCMs for doubled CO2 concentration. Five groups have tested the experimental design with existing AOGCMs. Their results show diversity in the pattern and magnitude of changes, with some common qualitative features. Heat and water flux perturbation cause the dipole in sea-level change in the North Atlantic, while momentum and heat flux perturbation cause the gradient across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) declines in response to the heat flux perturbation, and there is a strong positive feedback on this effect due to the consequent cooling of sea-surface temperature in the North Atlantic, which enhances the local heat input to the ocean. The momentum and water flux perturbations do not substantially affect the AMOC. Heat is taken up largely as a passive tracer in the Southern Ocean, which is the region of greatest heat input, while the weakening of the AMOC causes redistribution of heat towards lower latitudes. Future analysis of these and other phenomena with the wider range of CMIP6 FAFMIP AOGCMs will benefit from new diagnostics of temperature and salinity tendencies, which will enable investigation of the model

  5. High magnetic susceptibility granodiorite as a source of surface magnetic anomalies in the King George Island, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kon, S.; Nakamura, N.; Funaki, M.; Sakanaka, S.

    2012-12-01

    Change in plate motion produces convergence of the two oceanic lithospheres and the formation of volcanic island arcs above the subducted older and thicker plate. The association of calc-alkaline diorites to tonalites and granodiorites (ACG) is typical plutonic rocks of the volcanic arcs. In the many island arcs that surround the Pacific Ocean, ACG generally forms shallow level plutons and is closely associated with volcanic rocks. The Japan Arc setting had occurred the emplacement of the highly magnetic granitoid along the fore-arc basin before back-arc spreading at middle Miocene, showing a linear positive magnetic anomaly. Similar magnetic anomalies have also been exhibited along the Circum-Pacific Belt. Along East Antarctica, it is well known that the South Shetland Islands have been formed by back-arc spreading related to the subduction along the South Shetland trench during the late Cretaceous and middle Miocene. Moreover, geology in the South Shetland Islands consists of lava flows with subordinate pyroclastic deposits, intrusive dykes-sills, granitic plutons, displaying a typical subduction-related calc-alkaline volcanic association. However, there is little report on the presence of fore-arc granitoid. Here we report the distribution and structure of the granitic plutons around Marian Cove in the King George Island, South Shetland, East Antarctica by surface geological survey and magnetic anisotropic studies. Then we compare the distribution of granitic plutons with surface magnetic anomalies through our ship-borne and foot-borne magnetic surveys. The granitic plutons are distributed only shallow around the Marian cove in the King George Island, and the plutons had been intruded in the Sejong formation with pyroclastic deposits and basaltic/rhyoritic lavas, suggesting the post back-arc spreading. We sampled 8 plutons, 12 basaltic lavas and 6 andestic dykes, all located within four kilometer radius from the Korean Antarctic research station (King Sejong

  6. Salinity-induced stratification and the onset of hypoxia during the Holocene Thermal Maximum and the Medieval Climate Anomaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadomanolaki, Nina; Dijkstra, Nikki; van Helmond, Niels; Sangiorgi, Francesca; Hagens, Mathilde; Kotthoff, Ulrich; Slomp, Caroline

    2016-04-01

    During the past ~8000 years the Baltic Sea has experienced three distinct intervals of hypoxia, of which the last one is still ongoing. These intervals are characterized by enhanced sedimentary organic matter burial and enrichment of redox-sensitive metals, such as molybdenum and iron. The first two of these intervals occurred during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) and the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), two phases with high temperatures and changed precipitation patterns. Studies focussing on the Holocene sedimentary record of the Baltic Sea aim at clarifying the causes of the initiation, evolution and termination of these hypoxic intervals, as well as their consequences. This information could help to potentially aid in finding solutions for the mitigation of present-day hypoxia in the Baltic Sea. The factors contributing to hypoxia development during the HTM and MCA are still debated. Here we present data from a core retrieved during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 347 in the Landsort Deep basin, the deepest basin of the Baltic Sea at 463m water depth. Sediments were analysed at a high resolution using inorganic geochemical and (mainly marine) palynological proxies. Dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) assemblages and total elemental compositions provide clues on the role of salinity in enhancing stratification, ultimately causing hypoxia. During the onset of the HTM changes in salinity, as indicated by the palynology, closely follow changes in sedimentary organic carbon burial and trace metal concentrations. This suggests that stratification was an important cause of hypoxia during the HTM. In contrast, the palynology suggests that reduced stratification did not contribute to re-oxygenation during the termination of the HTM. We did not observe major changes in the palynology throughout the hypoxic interval of the MCA. Our results thus suggest that changes in salinity did not cause the onset and termination of hypoxia during the MCA.

  7. Characterization of the solar climate in Malawi using NASA's surface ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    Characterization of the solar climate in Malawi using. NASA's surface meteorology and solar energy. (SSE) model. Senganimalunje, T. C.1 and Tenthani, C. M. 2*. 1Malawi Bureau of Standards, Metrology Services Department, Box 946, Blantyre, Malawi. 2Physics and Biochemical Sciences Department, Malawi Polytechnic, ...

  8. Climatic variability of river outflow in the Pantanal region and the influence of sea surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Carlos Batista; Silva, Maria Elisa Siqueira; Ambrizzi, Tércio

    2017-07-01

    This paper investigates possible linear relationships between climate, hydrology, and oceanic surface variability in the Pantanal region (in South America's central area), over interannual and interdecadal time ranges. In order to verify the mentioned relations, lagged correlation analysis and linear adjustment between river discharge at the Pantanal region and sea surface temperature were used. Composite analysis for atmospheric fields, air humidity flux divergence, and atmospheric circulation at low and high levels, for the period between 1970 and 2003, was analyzed. Results suggest that the river discharge in the Pantanal region is linearly associated with interdecadal and interannual oscillations in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, making them good predictors to continental hydrological variables. Considering oceanic areas, 51 % of the annual discharge in the Pantanal region can be linearly explained by mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the Subtropical North Pacific, Tropical North Pacific, Extratropical South Pacific, and Extratropical North Atlantic over the period. Considering a forecast approach in seasonal scale, 66 % of the monthly discharge variance in Pantanal, 3 months ahead of SST, is explained by the oceanic variables, providing accuracy around 65 %. Annual discharge values in the Pantanal region are strongly related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) variability (with 52 % of linear correlation), making it possible to consider an interdecadal variability and a consequent subdivision of the whole period in three parts: 1st (1970-1977), 2nd (1978-1996), and 3rd (1997-2003) subperiods. The three subperiods coincide with distinct PDO phases: negative, positive, and negative, respectively. Convergence of humidity flux at low levels and the circulation pattern at high levels help to explain the drier and wetter subperiods. During the wetter 2nd subperiod, the air humidity convergence at low levels is much more evident than during the other two

  9. Climate Impacts of Fire-Induced Land-Surface Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y.; Hao, X.; Qu, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    One of the consequences of wildfires is the changes in land-surface properties such as removal of vegetation. This will change local and regional climate through modifying the land-air heat and water fluxes. This study investigates mechanism by developing and a parameterization of fire-induced land-surface property changes and applying it to modeling of the climate impacts of large wildfires in the United States. Satellite remote sensing was used to quantitatively evaluate the land-surface changes from large fires provided from the Monitoring Trends in Burning Severity (MTBS) dataset. It was found that the changes in land-surface properties induced by fires are very complex, depending on vegetation type and coverage, climate type, season and time after fires. The changes in LAI are remarkable only if the actual values meet a threshold. Large albedo changes occur in winter for fires in cool climate regions. The signs are opposite between the first post-fire year and the following years. Summer day-time temperature increases after fires, while nigh-time temperature changes in various patterns. The changes are larger in forested lands than shrub / grassland lands. In the parameterization scheme, the detected post-fire changes are decomposed into trends using natural exponential functions and fluctuations of periodic variations with the amplitudes also determined by natural exponential functions. The final algorithm is a combination of the trends, periods, and amplitude functions. This scheme is used with Earth system models to simulate the local and regional climate effects of wildfires.

  10. Identifying anthropogenic anomalies in air, surface and groundwater temperatures in Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benz, Susanne A; Bayer, Peter; Blum, Philipp

    2017-04-15

    Human activity directly influences ambient air, surface and groundwater temperatures. The most prominent phenomenon is the urban heat island effect, which has been investigated particularly in large and densely populated cities. This study explores the anthropogenic impact on the thermal regime not only in selected urban areas, but on a countrywide scale for mean annual temperature datasets in Germany in three different compartments: measured surface air temperature, measured groundwater temperature, and satellite-derived land surface temperature. Taking nighttime lights as an indicator of rural areas, the anthropogenic heat intensity is introduced. It is applicable to each data set and provides the difference between measured local temperature and median rural background temperature. This concept is analogous to the well-established urban heat island intensity, but applicable to each measurement point or pixel of a large, even global, study area. For all three analyzed temperature datasets, anthropogenic heat intensity grows with increasing nighttime lights and declines with increasing vegetation, whereas population density has only minor effects. While surface anthropogenic heat intensity cannot be linked to specific land cover types in the studied resolution (1km×1km) and classification system, both air and groundwater show increased heat intensities for artificial surfaces. Overall, groundwater temperature appears most vulnerable to human activity, albeit the different compartments are partially influenced through unrelated processes; unlike land surface temperature and surface air temperature, groundwater temperatures are elevated in cultivated areas as well. At the surface of Germany, the highest anthropogenic heat intensity with 4.5K is found at an open-pit lignite mine near Jülich, followed by three large cities (Munich, Düsseldorf and Nuremberg) with annual mean anthropogenic heat intensities >4K. Overall, surface anthropogenic heat intensities >0K and

  11. Coupled ocean-atmosphere surface variability and its climate impacts in the tropical Atlantic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontaine, B.; Janicot, Serge; Roucou, P.

    This study examines time evolution and statistical relationships involving the two leading ocean-atmosphere coupled modes of variability in the tropical Atlantic and some climate anomalies over the tropical 120°W-60°W region using selected historical files (75-y near global SSTs and precipitation over land), more recent observed data (30-y SST and pseudo wind stress in the tropical Atlantic) and reanalyses from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis System on the period 1968-1997: surface air temperature, sea level pressure, moist static energy content at 850 hPa, precipitable water and precipitation. The first coupled mode detected through singular value decomposition of the SST and pseudo wind-stress data over the tropical Atlantic (30°N-20°S) expresses a modulation in the thermal transequatorial gradient of SST anomalies conducted by one month leading wind-stress anomalies mainly in the tropical north Atlantic during northern winter and fall. It features a slight dipole structure in the meridional plane. Its time variability is dominated by a quasi-decadal signal well observed in the last 20-30 ys and, when projected over longer-term SST data, in the 1920s and 1930s but with shorter periods. The second coupled mode is more confined to the south-equatorial tropical Atlantic in the northern summer and explains considerably less wind-stress/SST cross-covariance. Its time series features an interannual variability dominated by shorter frequencies with increased variance in the 1960s and 1970s before 1977. Correlations between these modes and the ENSO-like Nino3 index lead to decreasing amplitude of thermal anomalies in the tropical Atlantic during warm episodes in the Pacific. This could explain the nonstationarity of meridional anomaly gradients on seasonal and interannual time scales. Overall the relationships between the oceanic component of the coupled modes and the climate anomaly patterns denote thermodynamical

  12. Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts. A Review in the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Mohino, Elsa; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Caminade, Cyril; Biasutti, Michela; Gaetani, Marco; Garcia-Serrano, J.; Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry; Xue, Yongkang; hide

    2015-01-01

    The Sahel experienced a severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s after wet periods in the 1950s and 1960s. Although rainfall partially recovered since the 1990s, the drought had devastating impacts on society. Most studies agree that this dry period resulted primarily from remote effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies amplified by local land surface-atmosphere interactions. This paper reviews advances made during the last decade to better understand the impact of global SST variability on West African rainfall at interannual to decadal time scales. At interannual time scales, a warming of the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific/Indian Oceans results in rainfall reduction over the Sahel, and positive SST anomalies over the Mediterranean Sea tend to be associated with increased rainfall. At decadal time scales, warming over the tropics leads to drought over the Sahel, whereas warming over the North Atlantic promotes increased rainfall. Prediction systems have evolved from seasonal to decadal forecasting. The agreement among future projections has improved from CMIP3 to CMIP5, with a general tendency for slightly wetter conditions over the central part of the Sahel, drier conditions over the western part, and a delay in the monsoon onset. The role of the Indian Ocean, the stationarity of teleconnections, the determination of the leader ocean basin in driving decadal variability, the anthropogenic role, the reduction of the model rainfall spread, and the improvement of some model components are among the most important remaining questions that continue to be the focus of current international projects.

  13. Impacts of Future Grassland Changes on Surface Climate in Mongolia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fan Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change caused by land use/cover change (LUCC is becoming a hot topic in current global change, especially the changes caused by the grassland degradation. In this paper, based on the baseline underlying surface data of 1993, the predicted underlying surface data which can be derived through overlaying the grassland degradation information to the map of baseline underlying surface, and the atmospheric forcing data of RCP 6.0 from CMIP5, climatological changes caused by future grassland changes for the years 2010–2020 and 2040–2050 with the Weather Research Forecast model (WRF are simulated. The model-based analysis shows that future grassland degradation will significantly result in regional climate change. The grassland degradation in future could lead to an increasing trend of temperature in most areas and corresponding change range of the annual average temperature of −0.1°C–0.4°C, and it will cause a decreasing trend of precipitation and corresponding change range of the annual average precipitation of 10 mm–50 mm. This study identifies lines of evidence for effects of future grassland degradation on regional climate in Mongolia which provides meaningful decision-making information for the development and strategy plan making in Mongolia.

  14. The impact of runoff and surface hydrology on Titan's climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faulk, Sean; Lora, Juan; Mitchell, Jonathan

    2017-10-01

    Titan’s surface liquid distribution has been shown by general circulation models (GCMs) to greatly influence the hydrological cycle. Simulations from the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM) with imposed polar methane “wetlands” reservoirs realistically produce many observed features of Titan’s atmosphere, whereas “aquaplanet” simulations with a global methane ocean are not as successful. In addition, wetlands simulations, unlike aquaplanet simulations, demonstrate strong correlations between extreme rainfall behavior and observed geomorphic features, indicating the influential role of precipitation in shaping Titan’s surface. The wetlands configuration is, in part, motivated by Titan’s large-scale topography featuring low-latitude highlands and high-latitude lowlands, with the implication being that methane may concentrate in the high-latitude lowlands by way of runoff and subsurface flow. However, the extent to which topography controls the surface liquid distribution and thus impacts the global hydrological cycle by driving surface and subsurface flow is unclear. Here we present TAM simulations wherein the imposed wetlands reservoirs are replaced by a surface runoff scheme that allows surface liquid to self-consistently redistribute under the influence of topography. To isolate the singular impact of surface runoff on Titan’s climatology, we run simulations without parameterizations of subsurface flow and topography-atmosphere interactions. We discuss the impact of surface runoff on the surface liquid distribution over seasonal timescales and compare the resulting hydrological cycle to observed cloud and surface features, as well as to the hydrological cycles of the TAM wetlands and aquaplanet simulations. While still idealized, this more realistic representation of Titan’s hydrology provides new insight into the complex interaction between Titan’s atmosphere and surface, demonstrates the influence of surface runoff on Titan’s global climate

  15. The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP contribution to CMIP6: investigation of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Gregory

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP aims to investigate the spread in simulations of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing by atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs. It is particularly motivated by the uncertainties in projections of ocean heat uptake, global-mean sea-level rise due to thermal expansion and the geographical patterns of sea-level change due to ocean density and circulation change. FAFMIP has three tier-1 experiments, in which prescribed surface flux perturbations of momentum, heat and freshwater respectively are applied to the ocean in separate AOGCM simulations. All other conditions are as in the pre-industrial control. The prescribed fields are typical of pattern and magnitude of changes in these fluxes projected by AOGCMs for doubled CO2 concentration. Five groups have tested the experimental design with existing AOGCMs. Their results show diversity in the pattern and magnitude of changes, with some common qualitative features. Heat and water flux perturbation cause the dipole in sea-level change in the North Atlantic, while momentum and heat flux perturbation cause the gradient across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC declines in response to the heat flux perturbation, and there is a strong positive feedback on this effect due to the consequent cooling of sea-surface temperature in the North Atlantic, which enhances the local heat input to the ocean. The momentum and water flux perturbations do not substantially affect the AMOC. Heat is taken up largely as a passive tracer in the Southern Ocean, which is the region of greatest heat input, while the weakening of the AMOC causes redistribution of heat towards lower latitudes. Future analysis of these and other phenomena with the wider range of CMIP6 FAFMIP AOGCMs will benefit from new diagnostics of temperature and salinity tendencies, which will enable

  16. Global deformation of the Earth, surface mass anomalies, and the geodetic infrastructure required to study these processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusche, J.; Rietbroek, R.; Gunter, B.; Mark-Willem, J.

    2008-12-01

    Global deformation of the Earth can be linked to loading caused by mass changes in the atmosphere, the ocean and the terrestrial hydrosphere. World-wide geodetic observation systems like GPS, e.g., the global IGS network, can be used to study the global deformation of the Earth directly and, when other effects are properly modeled, provide information regarding the surface loading mass (e.g., to derive geo-center motion estimates). Vice versa, other observing systems that monitor mass change, either through gravitational changes (GRACE) or through a combination of in-situ and modeled quantities (e.g., the atmosphere, ocean or hydrosphere), can provide indirect information on global deformation. In the framework of the German 'Mass transport and mass distribution' program, we estimate surface mass anomalies at spherical harmonic resolution up to degree and order 30 by linking three complementary data sets in a least squares approach. Our estimates include geo-center motion and the thickness of a spatially uniform layer on top of the ocean surface (that is otherwise estimated from surface fluxes, evaporation and precipitation, and river run-off) as a time-series. As with all current Earth observing systems, each dataset has its own limitations and do not realize homogeneous coverage over the globe. To assess the impact that these limitations might have on current and future deformation and loading mass solutions, a sensitivity study was conducted. Simulated real-case and idealized solutions were explored in which the spatial distribution and quality of GPS, GRACE and OBP data sets were varied. The results show that significant improvements, e.g., over the current GRACE monthly gravity fields, in particular at the low degrees, can be achieved when these solutions are combined with present day GPS and OBP products. Our idealized scenarios also provide quantitative implications on how much surface mass change estimates may improve in the future when improved observing

  17. Land surface and climate parameters and malaria features in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liou, Y. A.; Anh, N. K.

    2017-12-01

    Land surface parameters may affect local microclimate, which in turn alters the development of mosquito habitats and transmission risks (soil-vegetation-atmosphere-vector borne diseases). Forest malaria is a chromic issue in Southeast Asian countries, in particular, such as Vietnam (in 1991, approximate 2 million cases and 4,646 deaths were reported (https://sites.path.org)). Vietnam has lowlands, sub-tropical high humidity, and dense forests, resulting in wide-scale distribution and high biting rate of mosquitos in Vietnam, becoming a challenging and out of control scenario, especially in Vietnamese Central Highland region. It is known that Vietnam's economy mainly relies on agriculture and malaria is commonly associated with poverty. There is a strong demand to investigate the relationship between land surface parameters (land cover, soil moisture, land surface temperature, etc.) and climatic variables (precipitation, humidity, evapotranspiration, etc.) in association with malaria distribution. GIS and remote sensing have been proven their powerful potentials in supporting environmental and health studies. The objective of this study aims to analyze physical attributes of land surface and climate parameters and their links with malaria features. The outcomes are expected to illustrate how remotely sensed data has been utilized in geohealth applications, surveillance, and health risk mapping. In addition, a platform with promising possibilities of allowing disease early-warning systems with citizen participation will be proposed.

  18. Impacts of Local Soil Moisture Anomalies on the Atmospheric Circulation and on Remote Surface Meteorological Fields During Boreal Summer: A Comprehensive Analysis over North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, Randal D.; Chang, Yehui; Wang, Hailan; Schubert, Siegfried D.

    2016-01-01

    We perform a series of stationary wave model (SWM) experiments in which the boreal summer atmosphere is forced, over a number of locations in the continental U.S., with an idealized diabatic heating anomaly that mimics the atmospheric heating associated with a dry land surface. For localized heating within a large portion of the continental interior, regardless of the specific location of this heating, the spatial pattern of the forced atmospheric circulation anomaly (in terms of 250-mb eddy streamfunction) is largely the same: a high anomaly forms over west central North America and a low anomaly forms to the east. In supplemental atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments, we find similar results; imposing soil moisture dryness in the AGCM in different locations within the US interior tends to produce the aforementioned pattern, along with an associated near-surface warming and precipitation deficit in the center of the continent. The SWM-based and AGCM-based patterns generally agree with composites generated using reanalysis and precipitation gauge data. The AGCM experiments also suggest that dry anomalies imposed in the lower Mississippi Valley have remote surface impacts of particularly large spatial extent, and a region along the eastern half of the US-Canada border is particularly sensitive to dry anomalies in a number of remote areas. Overall, the SWM and AGCM experiments support the idea of a positive feedback loop operating over the continent: dry surface conditions in many interior locations lead to changes in atmospheric circulation that act to enhance further the overall dryness of the continental interior.

  19. Plasticity of noddy parents and offspring to sea-surface temperature anomalies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carol A Devney

    Full Text Available Behavioral and/or developmental plasticity is crucial for resisting the impacts of environmental stressors. We investigated the plasticity of adult foraging behavior and chick development in an offshore foraging seabird, the black noddy (Anous minutus, during two breeding seasons. The first season had anomalously high sea-surface temperatures and 'low' prey availability, while the second was a season of below average sea-surface temperatures and 'normal' food availability. During the second season, supplementary feeding of chicks was used to manipulate offspring nutritional status in order to mimic conditions of high prey availability. When sea-surface temperatures were hotter than average, provisioning rates were significantly and negatively impacted at the day-to-day scale. Adults fed chicks during this low-food season smaller meals but at the same rate as chicks in the unfed treatment the following season. Supplementary feeding of chicks during the second season also resulted in delivery of smaller meals by adults, but did not influence feeding rate. Chick begging and parental responses to cessation of food supplementation suggested smaller meals fed to artificially supplemented chicks resulted from a decrease in chick demands associated with satiation, rather than adult behavioral responses to chick condition. During periods of low prey abundance, chicks maintained structural growth while sacrificing body condition and were unable to take advantage of periods of high prey abundance by increasing growth rates. These results suggest that this species expresses limited plasticity in provisioning behavior and offspring development. Consequently, responses to future changes in sea-surface temperature and other environmental variation may be limited.

  20. Detecting geothermal anomalies and evaluating LST geothermal component by combining thermal remote sensing time series and land surface model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romaguera, Mireia; Vaughan, R. Greg; Ettema, J.; Izquierdo-Verdiguier, E.; Hecker, C. A.; van der Meer, F.D.

    2018-01-01

    This paper explores for the first time the possibilities to use two land surface temperature (LST) time series of different origins (geostationary Meteosat Second Generation satellite data and Noah land surface modelling, LSM), to detect geothermal anomalies and extract the geothermal component of LST, the LSTgt. We hypothesize that in geothermal areas the LSM time series will underestimate the LST as compared to the remote sensing data, since the former does not account for the geothermal component in its model.In order to extract LSTgt, two approaches of different nature (physical based and data mining) were developed and tested in an area of about 560 × 560 km2 centered at the Kenyan Rift. Pre-dawn data in the study area during the first 45 days of 2012 were analyzed.The results show consistent spatial and temporal LSTgt patterns between the two approaches, and systematic differences of about 2 K. A geothermal area map from surface studies was used to assess LSTgt inside and outside the geothermal boundaries. Spatial means were found to be higher inside the geothermal limits, as well as the relative frequency of occurrence of high LSTgt. Results further show that areas with strong topography can result in anomalously high LSTgt values (false positives), which suggests the need for a slope and aspect correction in the inputs to achieve realistic results in those areas. The uncertainty analysis indicates that large uncertainties of the input parameters may limit detection of LSTgt anomalies. To validate the approaches, higher spatial resolution images from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data over the Olkaria geothermal field were used. An established method to estimate radiant geothermal flux was applied providing values between 9 and 24 W/m2 in the geothermal area, which coincides with the LSTgt flux rates obtained with the proposed approaches.The proposed approaches are a first step in estimating LSTgt

  1. Characteristics of Winter Surface Air Temperature Anomalies in Moscow in 1970-2016 under Conditions of Reduced Sea Ice Area in the Barents Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukurov, K. A.; Semenov, V. A.

    2018-01-01

    On the basis of observational data on daily mean surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents Sea (BS), the characteristics of strong positive and negative winter SAT anomalies in Moscow have been studied in comparison with BS SIC data obtained in 1949-2016. An analysis of surface backward trajectories of air-particle motions has revealed the most probable paths of both cold and warm air invasions into Moscow and located regions that mostly affect strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow. Atmospheric circulation anomalies that cause strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow have been revealed. Changes in the ways of both cold and warm air invasions have been found, as well as an increase in the frequency of blocking anticyclones in 2005-2016 when compared to 1970-1999. The results suggest that a winter SIC decrease in the BS in 2005-2016 affects strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow due to an increase in the frequency of occurrence of blocking anticyclones to the south of and over the BS.

  2. Land surface anomalies preceding the 2010 Russian heat wave and a link to the North Atlantic oscillation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, Christopher K; Henebry, Geoffrey M; De Beurs, Kirsten M

    2014-01-01

    The Eurasian wheat belt (EWB) spans a region across Eastern Ukraine, Southern Russia, and Northern Kazakhstan; accounting for nearly 15% of global wheat production. We assessed land surface conditions across the EWB during the early growing season (April–May–June; AMJ) leading up to the 2010 Russian heat wave, and over a longer-term period from 2000 to 2010. A substantial reduction in early season values of the normalized difference vegetation index occurred prior to the Russian heat wave, continuing a decadal decline in early season primary production in the region. In 2010, an anomalously cold winter followed by an abrupt shift to a warmer-than-normal early growing season was consistent with a persistently negative phase of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). Regression analyses showed that early season vegetation productivity in the EWB is a function of both the winter (December–January–February; DJF) and AMJ phases of the NAO. Land surface anomalies preceding the heat wave were thus consistent with highly negative values of both the DJF NAO and AMJ NAO in 2010. (letter)

  3. Phonon anomalies and electron-phonon coupling of metal surfaces and thin films; Phononenanomalien und Elektron-Phonon-Kopplung an Metalloberflaechen und duennen Schichten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flach, B.

    2000-01-01

    This thesis has two topics: One is the investigation of an adsorbate induced phonon anomaly on W(110) and Mo{sub 1-x}Re{sub x}(110) (x = 5, 15, 25%) with inelastic helium atom scattering (HAS). The other one is the study of the growth, morphology and dynamics of ultra-thin lithium films deposited on W(110). In 1992 a giant phonon anomaly was found by J. Luedecke on the hydrogen saturated W(110) and Mo(110) surfaces. The anomaly consists of a deep and sharp indentation in the phonon dispersion curves in which the phonon energy nearly drops to zero ({omega}{sub 1}). In addition, a small and broad dip in the surface Rayleigh mode is observed ({omega}{sub 2}). The anomaly appears in the anti {gamma}-H- as well as in the anti {gamma}-S-direction of the surface Brillouin zone (SBZ). Since its first discovery, numerous other experimental and theoretical studies have followed. In the present work the effects is reinvestigated and experimental parameters, such as the crystal temperature and the incident energy, were changed in order to study their influence on the anomalous phonon behavior. In the case of H/Mo(110) the substrate was changed as well by alloying with small amounts of rhenium. In the present experiments a strong crystal temperature dependence of the {omega}{sub 2}-branch was found which leads to lower energies at the 'dip' for smaller temperatures, while the {omega}{sub 1}-anomaly remains unchanged. Such behavior agrees well with the picture that the {omega}{sub 2}-branch is due to a Kohn anomaly. (orig.)

  4. Gravitational anomalies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leutwyler, H; Mallik, S

    1986-12-01

    The effective action for fermions moving in external gravitational and gauge fields is analyzed in terms of the corresponding external field propagator. The central object in our approach is the covariant energy-momentum tensor which is extracted from the regular part of the propagator at short distances. It is shown that the Lorentz anomaly, the conformal anomaly and the gauge anomaly can be expressed in terms of the local polynomials which determine the singular part of the propagator. (There are no coordinate anomalies). Except for the conformal anomaly, for which we give explicit representations only in dless than or equal to4, we consider an arbitrary number of dimensions.

  5. An assessment of the surface climate in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Wanqiu; Xie, Pingping; Yoo, Soo-Hyun; Xue, Yan; Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wu, Xingren [Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2011-10-15

    This paper analyzes surface climate variability in the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) recently completed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The CFSR represents a new generation of reanalysis effort with first guess from a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land forecast system. This study focuses on the analysis of climate variability for a set of surface variables including precipitation, surface air 2-m temperature (T2m), and surface heat fluxes. None of these quantities are assimilated directly and thus an assessment of their variability provides an independent measure of the accuracy. The CFSR is compared with observational estimates and three previous reanalyses (the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis or R1, the NCEP/DOE reanalysis or R2, and the ERA40 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The CFSR has improved time-mean precipitation distribution over various regions compared to the three previous reanalyses, leading to a better representation of freshwater flux (evaporation minus precipitation). For interannual variability, the CFSR shows improved precipitation correlation with observations over the Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent, and western Pacific. The T2m of the CFSR is superior to R1 and R2 with more realistic interannual variability and long-term trend. On the other hand, the CFSR overestimates downward solar radiation flux over the tropical Western Hemisphere warm pool, consistent with a negative cloudiness bias and a positive sea surface temperature bias. Meanwhile, the evaporative latent heat flux in CFSR appears to be larger than other observational estimates over most of the globe. A few deficiencies in the long-term variations are identified in the CFSR. Firstly, dramatic changes are found around 1998-2001 in the global average of a number of variables, possibly related to the changes in the assimilated satellite observations. Secondly, the use of multiple streams for the CFSR induces spurious

  6. Relationships between southeastern Australian rainfall and sea surface temperatures examined using a climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watterson, I. G.

    2010-05-01

    Rainfall in southeastern Australia has declined in recent years, particularly during austral autumn over the state of Victoria. A recent study suggests that sea surface temperature (SST) variations in both the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) region and in a meridional dipole in the central Indian Ocean have influenced Victorian late autumn rainfall since 1950. However, it remains unclear to what extent SSTs in these and other regions force such a teleconnection. Analysis of a 1080 year simulation by the climate model CSIRO Mk3.5 shows that the model Victorian rainfall is correlated rather realistically with SSTs but that part of the above relationships is due to the model ENSO. Furthermore, the remote patterns of pressure, rainfall, and land temperature greatly diminish when the data are lagged by 1 month, suggesting that the true forcing by the persisting SSTs is weak. In a series of simulations of the atmospheric Mk3.5 with idealized SST anomalies, raised SSTs to the east of Indonesia lower the simulated Australian rainfall, while those to the west raise it. A positive ITF anomaly lowers pressure over Australia, but with little effect on Victorian rainfall. The meridional dipole and SSTs to the west and southeast of Australia have little direct effect on southeastern Australia in the model. The results suggest that tropical SSTs predominate as an influence on Victorian rainfall. However, the SST indices appear to explain only a fraction of the observed trend, which in the case of decadal means remains within the range of unforced variability simulated by Mk3.5.

  7. Modelling land surface fluxes of CO2 in response to climate change and nitrogen deposition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kristina; Ambelas Skjøth, Carsten; Geels, Camilla

    Climate change, land use variations, and impacts of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition represent uncertainties for the prediction of future greenhouse gas exchange between land surfaces and the atmosphere as the mechanisms describing nutritional effects are not well developed in climate...... climate feedback mechanisms of CO2 between changes in management, land use practise, and climate change....

  8. The influence of sea surface temperature anomalies on low-frequency variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manganello, Julia V. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

    2008-05-15

    The influence of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) on multi-year persistence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the second half of the twentieth century is investigated using the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) Atmospheric GCM (AGCM) with an emphasis on isolating the geographic location of the SSTA that produce this influence. The present study focuses on calculating the atmospheric response to the SSTA averaged over 1988-1995 (1961-1968) corresponding to the observed period of strong persistence of the positive (negative) phase of the decadal NAO. The model response to the global 1988-1995 average SSTA shows a statistically significant large-scale pattern characteristic of the positive phase of the NAO. Forcing with the global 1961-1968 average SSTA generates a NAO of the opposite polarity compared to observations. However, all large-scale features both in the model and observations during this period are weaker in magnitude and less significant compared to 1988-1995. Additional idealized experiments show that over the northern center of the NAO the non-linear component of the forced response appears to be quite important and acts to enhance the positive NAO signal. On the other hand, over the southern center where the model response is the strongest, it is also essentially linear. The 1988-1995 average SSTA restricted to the western tropical Pacific region produce a positive NAO remarkably similar in structure but stronger in magnitude than the model response to the global and tropical Indo-Pacific 1988-1995 forcing. A 200-hPa geopotential height response in these experiments shows a positive anomaly over the southern center of the NAO embedded in the Rossby wave trains propagating from the western tropical Pacific. Indian Ocean SSTA lead to much weaker positive NAO primarily through the effect on its northern center. SST forcing confined to the North Atlantic north of equator does not produce a response statistically different

  9. NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of Ocean Near Surface Atmospheric Properties, Version 2

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Ocean Surface Bundle (OSB) Climate Data Record (CDR) consist of three parts: sea surface temperature; near-surface wind speed, air temperature, and specific...

  10. NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of Sea Surface Temperature - WHOI, Version 2

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Ocean Surface Bundle (OSB) Climate Data Record (CDR) consist of three parts: sea surface temperature, near-surface atmospheric properties, and heat fluxes....

  11. On the differences between early and middle winter atmospheric responses to sea surface temperature anomalies in the northwest Atlantic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, S.; Mysak, L.A.; Derome, J.; Ritchie, H.; Dugas, B.

    1994-01-01

    Using an atmospheric global spectral model at RPN with T42 horizontal resolution, we have shown that the winter atmosphere in the mid-latitude is capable of reacting to the SST anomalies prescribed in the northwest Atlantic with two different responses. The nature of the response is determined by the climatological conditions of the winter system. Experiments are conducted using either the perpetual November or January conditions, with or without the SST anomalies prescribed. Six 50-day integrations, with positive (or negative) SST anomalies prescribed, initialized from independent November analyses and similarly, four runs initialized from January analyses, have been examined in comparison with their control runs

  12. Surface Winds and Dust Biases in Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evan, A. T.

    2018-01-01

    An analysis of North African dust from models participating in the Fifth Climate Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggested that, when forced by observed sea surface temperatures, these models were unable to reproduce any aspects of the observed year-to-year variability in dust from North Africa. Consequently, there would be little reason to have confidence in the models' projections of changes in dust over the 21st century. However, no subsequent study has elucidated the root causes of the disagreement between CMIP5 and observed dust. Here I develop an idealized model of dust emission and then use this model to show that, over North Africa, such biases in CMIP5 models are due to errors in the surface wind fields and not due to the representation of dust emission processes. These results also suggest that because the surface wind field over North Africa is highly spatially autocorrelated, intermodel differences in the spatial structure of dust emission have little effect on the relative change in year-to-year dust emission over the continent. I use these results to show that similar biases in North African dust from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) version 2 surface wind field biases but that these wind biases were not present in the first version of MERRA.

  13. M3 spectral analysis of lunar swirls and the link between optical maturation and surface hydroxyl formation at magnetic anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, G.Y.; Besse, S.; Dhingra, D.; Nettles, J.; Klima, R.; Garrick-Bethell, I.; Clark, Roger N.; Combe, J.-P.; Head, J. W.; Taylor, L.A.; Pieters, C.M.; Boardman, J.; McCord, T.B.

    2011-01-01

    from all three focus regions support the hypothesis that the magnetic anomalies deflect solar wind ions away from the swirls and onto off-swirl surfaces. Nanophase iron (npFe0) is largely responsible for the spectral characteristics we attribute to space weathering and maturation, and is created by vaporization/deposition by micrometeorite impacts and sputtering/reduction by solar wind ions. On the swirls, the decreased proton flux slows the spectral effects of space weathering (relative to nonswirl regions) by limiting the npFe0 production mechanism almost exclusively to micrometeoroid impact vaporization/deposition. Immediately adjacent to the swirls, maturation is accelerated by the increased flux of protons deflected from the swirls.

  14. Correlation between phonon anomaly along [211] and the Fermi surface nesting features with associated electron-phonon interactions in Ni2FeGa: A first principles study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chabungbam, Satyananda; Sahariah, Munima B.

    2015-01-01

    First principles calculation reaffirms the presence of phonon anomaly along [211] direction in Ni 2 FeGa shape memory alloy supporting the experimental findings of J. Q. Li et al. Fermi surface scans have been performed in both austenite and martensite phase to see the possible Fermi nesting features in this alloy. The magnitude of observed Fermi surface nesting vectors in (211) plane exactly match the phonon anomaly wavevectors along [211] direction. Electron-phonon calculation in the austenite phase shows that there is significant electron-phonon coupling in this alloy which might arise out of the lattice coupling between lower acoustic modes and higher optical modes combined with the observed strong Fermi nesting features in the system. - Highlights: • Transverse acoustic (TA 2 ) modes show anomaly along [211] direction in Ni 2 FeGa. • The phonon anomaly wavevector has been correlated with the Fermi nesting vectors. • Electron-phonon coupling calculation shows significant coupling in this system. • Max. el-ph coupling occurs in transition frequencies from acoustic to optical modes

  15. Hydrologic response to multimodel climate output using a physically based model of groundwater/surface water interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulis, M.; Paniconi, C.; Marrocu, M.; Huard, D.; Chaumont, D.

    2012-12-01

    General circulation models (GCMs) are the primary instruments for obtaining projections of future global climate change. Outputs from GCMs, aided by dynamical and/or statistical downscaling techniques, have long been used to simulate changes in regional climate systems over wide spatiotemporal scales. Numerous studies have acknowledged the disagreements between the various GCMs and between the different downscaling methods designed to compensate for the mismatch between climate model output and the spatial scale at which hydrological models are applied. Very little is known, however, about the importance of these differences once they have been input or assimilated by a nonlinear hydrological model. This issue is investigated here at the catchment scale using a process-based model of integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic response driven by outputs from 12 members of a multimodel climate ensemble. The data set consists of daily values of precipitation and min/max temperatures obtained by combining four regional climate models and five GCMs. The regional scenarios were downscaled using a quantile scaling bias-correction technique. The hydrologic response was simulated for the 690 km2des Anglais catchment in southwestern Quebec, Canada. The results show that different hydrological components (river discharge, aquifer recharge, and soil moisture storage) respond differently to precipitation and temperature anomalies in the multimodel climate output, with greater variability for annual discharge compared to recharge and soil moisture storage. We also find that runoff generation and extreme event-driven peak hydrograph flows are highly sensitive to any uncertainty in climate data. Finally, the results show the significant impact of changing sequences of rainy days on groundwater recharge fluxes and the influence of longer dry spells in modifying soil moisture spatial variability.

  16. What is the ARM Climate Research Facility: Is Global Warming a Real Bias or a Statistical Anomaly?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Egami, Takeshi [U of Tennessee and ORNL; Sisterson, Douglas L.

    2010-03-10

    The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility (ACRF) is a U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research national user facility. With multi-laboratory management of distributed facilities worldwide, the ACRF does not fit the mold of a traditional user facility located at a national laboratory. The ACRF provides the world's most comprehensive 24/7 observational capabilities for obtaining atmospheric data specifically for climate change research. Serving nearly 5,000 registered users from 15 federal and state agencies, 375 universities, and 67 countries, the ACRF Data Archive collects and delivers over 5 terabytes of data per month to its users. The ACRF users provide critical information about cloud formation processes, water vapor, and aerosols, and their influence on radiative transfer in the atmosphere. This information is used to improve global climate model predictions of climate change.

  17. Holonomy anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bagger, J.; Nemeschansky, D.; Yankielowicz, S.

    1985-05-01

    A new type of anomaly is discussed that afflicts certain non-linear sigma models with fermions. This anomaly is similar to the ordinary gauge and gravitational anomalies since it reflects a topological obstruction to the reparametrization invariance of the quantum effective action. Nonlinear sigma models are constructed based on homogeneous spaces G/H. Anomalies arising when the fermions are chiral are shown to be cancelled sometimes by Chern-Simons terms. Nonlinear sigma models are considered based on general Riemannian manifolds. 9 refs

  18. Detecting ecosystem performance anomalies for land management in the upper colorado river basin using satellite observations, climate data, and ecosystem models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, B.K.

    2010-01-01

    This study identifies areas with ecosystem performance anomalies (EPA) within the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) during 2005-2007 using satellite observations, climate data, and ecosystem models. The final EPA maps with 250-m spatial resolution were categorized as normal performance, underperformance, and overperformance (observed performance relative to weather-based predictions) at the 90% level of confidence. The EPA maps were validated using "percentage of bare soil" ground observations. The validation results at locations with comparable site potential showed that regions identified as persistently underperforming (overperforming) tended to have a higher (lower) percentage of bare soil, suggesting that our preliminary EPA maps are reliable and agree with ground-based observations. The 3-year (2005-2007) persistent EPA map from this study provides the first quantitative evaluation of ecosystem performance anomalies within the UCRB and will help the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) identify potentially degraded lands. Results from this study can be used as a prototype by BLM and other land managers for making optimal land management decisions. ?? 2010 by the authors.

  19. Effect of climatic change on surface environments in the typical region of Horqin Sandy Land

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    The town of Agura,a typical region in Horqin Sandy Land,was selected as the study area in this paper.Using 12 remote sensing images and climatic data from the past 20 years,the effects of climate change on surface environments were analyzed.The impact indices of climatic factors,along with their corresponding ranks,were used to characterize the responses of different types of surface environments to climate change.Results show that in the past 20 years,the surface environments of the study area have been deteriorating.Furthermore,there is a positive relationship between the changes in surface environments and those in climatic factors.Various climatic factors influence surface environments in different ways and at different levels.The most sensitive factor is relative humidity,followed by precipitation and evaporation.Overall,moisture is the key factor that affects the changes in surface environments of arid and semi-arid areas.

  20. "Intelligent Ensemble" Projections of Precipitation and Surface Radiation in Support of Agricultural Climate Change Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Patrick C.; Baker, Noel C.

    2015-01-01

    Earth's climate is changing and will continue to change into the foreseeable future. Expected changes in the climatological distribution of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation will significantly impact agriculture. Adaptation strategies are, therefore, required to reduce the agricultural impacts of climate change. Climate change projections of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation distributions are necessary input for adaption planning studies. These projections are conventionally constructed from an ensemble of climate model simulations (e.g., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5)) as an equal weighted average, one model one vote. Each climate model, however, represents the array of climate-relevant physical processes with varying degrees of fidelity influencing the projection of individual climate variables differently. Presented here is a new approach, termed the "Intelligent Ensemble, that constructs climate variable projections by weighting each model according to its ability to represent key physical processes, e.g., precipitation probability distribution. This approach provides added value over the equal weighted average method. Physical process metrics applied in the "Intelligent Ensemble" method are created using a combination of NASA and NOAA satellite and surface-based cloud, radiation, temperature, and precipitation data sets. The "Intelligent Ensemble" method is applied to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 anthropogenic climate forcing simulations within the CMIP5 archive to develop a set of climate change scenarios for precipitation, temperature, and surface solar radiation in each USDA Farm Resource Region for use in climate change adaptation studies.

  1. A 20 year independent record of sea surface temperature for climate from Along-Track Scanning Radiometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchant, Christopher J.; Embury, Owen; Rayner, Nick A.; Berry, David I.; Corlett, Gary K.; Lean, Katie; Veal, Karen L.; Kent, Elizabeth C.; Llewellyn-Jones, David T.; Remedios, John J.; Saunders, Roger

    2012-12-01

    A new record of sea surface temperature (SST) for climate applications is described. This record provides independent corroboration of global variations estimated from SST measurements made in situ. Infrared imagery from Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSRs) is used to create a 20 year time series of SST at 0.1° latitude-longitude resolution, in the ATSR Reprocessing for Climate (ARC) project. A very high degree of independence of in situ measurements is achieved via physics-based techniques. Skin SST and SST estimated for 20 cm depth are provided, with grid cell uncertainty estimates. Comparison with in situ data sets establishes that ARC SSTs generally have bias of order 0.1 K or smaller. The precision of the ARC SSTs is 0.14 K during 2003 to 2009, from three-way error analysis. Over the period 1994 to 2010, ARC SSTs are stable, with better than 95% confidence, to within 0.005 K yr-1(demonstrated for tropical regions). The data set appears useful for cleanly quantifying interannual variability in SST and major SST anomalies. The ARC SST global anomaly time series is compared to the in situ-based Hadley Centre SST data set version 3 (HadSST3). Within known uncertainties in bias adjustments applied to in situ measurements, the independent ARC record and HadSST3 present the same variations in global marine temperature since 1996. Since the in situ observing system evolved significantly in its mix of measurement platforms and techniques over this period, ARC SSTs provide an important corroboration that HadSST3 accurately represents recent variability and change in this essential climate variable.

  2. The influence of land surface properties on Sahel climate. Part 1: Desertification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yongkang; Shukla, Jagadish

    1993-01-01

    This is a general circulation model sensitivity study of the physical mechanisms of the effects of desertification on the Sahel drought. The model vegetation types were changed in the prescribed desertification area, which led to changes in the surface characteristics. The model was integrated for three months (June, July, August) with climatological surface conditions (control) and desertification conditions (anomaly) to examine the summer season response to the changed surface conditions. The control and anomaly experiments consisted of five pairs of integrations with different initial conditions and/or sea surface temperature boundary conditions. In the desertification experiment, the moisture flux convergence and rainfall were reduced in the test area and increased to the immediate south of this area. The simulated anomaly dipole pattern was similar to the observed African drought patterns in which the axis of the maximum rainfall shifts to the south. The circulation changes in the desertification experiment were consistent with those observed during sub-Saharan dry years. The tropical easterly jet was weaker and the African easterly jet was stronger than normal. Further, in agreement with the observations, the easterly wave disturbances were reduced in intensity but not in number. Descending motion dominated the desertification area. The surface energy budget and hydrological cycle were also changed substantially in the anomaly experiment.

  3. Assessment of the Ability of Contemporary Climate Models to Assess Adequately the Risk of Possible Regional Anomalies and Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokhov, I. I.

    2018-04-01

    The results describing the ability of contemporary global and regional climate models not only to assess the risk of general trends of changes but also to predict qualitatively new regional effects are presented. In particular, model simulations predicted spatially inhomogeneous changes in the wind and wave conditions in the Arctic basins, which have been confirmed in recent years. According to satellite and reanalysis data, a qualitative transition to the regime predicted by model simulations occurred about a decade ago.

  4. High-resolution paleoclimatology of the Santa Barbara Basin during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and early Little Ice Age based on diatom and silicoflagellate assemblages in Kasten core SPR0901-02KC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, John A.; Bukry, David B.; Hendy, Ingrid L.

    2015-01-01

    Diatom and silicoflagellate assemblages documented in a high-resolution time series spanning 800 to 1600 AD in varved sediment recovered in Kasten core SPR0901-02KC (34°16.845’ N, 120°02.332’ W, water depth 588 m) from the Santa Barbara Basin (SBB) reveal that SBB surface water conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the early part of the Little Ice Age (LIA) were not extreme by modern standards, mostly falling within one standard deviation of mean conditions during the pre anthropogenic interval of 1748 to 1900. No clear differences between the character of MCA and the early LIA conditions are apparent. During intervals of extreme droughts identified by terrigenous proxy scanning XRF analyses, diatom and silicoflagellate proxies for coastal upwelling typically exceed one standard deviation above mean values for 1748-1900, supporting the hypothesis that droughts in southern California are associated with cooler (or La Niña-like) sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Increased percentages of diatoms transported downslope generally coincide with intervals of increased siliciclastic flux to the SBB identified by scanning XRF analyses. Diatom assemblages suggest only two intervals of the MCA (at ~897 to 922 and ~1151 to 1167) when proxy SSTs exceeded one standard deviation above mean values for 1748 to 1900. Conversely, silicoflagellates imply extreme warm water events only at ~830 to 860 (early MCA) and ~1360 to 1370 (early LIA) that are not supported by the diatom data. Silicoflagellates appear to be more suitable for characterizing average climate during the 5 to 11 year-long sample intervals studied in the SPR0901-02KC core than diatoms, probably because diatom relative abundances may be dominated by seasonal blooms of a particular year.

  5. High-resolution lake sediment archives of midcontinental atmospheric and hydroclimate variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bird, B. W.; Wilson, J. J.; Gilhooly, W., III; Steinman, B. A.; Stamps, L. G.; Ahmed, M. N.; Abbott, M. B.; Pompeani, D. P.; Hillman, A. L.; Finkenbinder, M. S.

    2017-12-01

    Hydroclimate variability in the midcontinental United States (US) during the last 2000 years is not well characterized because there are few high-resolution paleoclimate records from the region. The majority of information about late Holocene midcontinental hydroclimate variability comes from scattered lake and bog sediment archives (primarily north of 42˚N) and gridded Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) data calculated from a network of tree-ring records. The density of tree-ring records is lowest in the midcontinent, however, and decreases precipitously with time. In order to address this midcontinental paleoclimate data gap, we are developing a series of new lake-sediment-based hydroclimate records spanning 85˚ to 98˚W and 38˚ to 45˚N. New results from the eastern and central portions of the study area indicate large hydroclimate changes during the last 2000 years. Specifically, the Ohio and central Mississippi River valleys were wetter during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 950-1250 CE), but drier during the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1350-1850 CE) with an especially severe, multi-decadal drought between 1350-1450 CE. Comparison with western (west of 96˚W) drought and fire records supports the existence of a hydroclimate dipole, with opposite hydroclimate conditions west and east of 96˚W. Isotopic changes in precipitation during the MCA and LIA suggest hydroclimate anomalies during these events were associated with mean state atmospheric circulation changes that resemble modern Pacific North American Mode (PNA) variability. Midcontinental Native American populations appear to have responded to MCA and LIA hydroclimate variability, with the latter event contributing to midcontinental depopulation between 1350-1500 CE.

  6. Complex Networks Dynamics Based on Events-Phase Synchronization and Intensity Correlation Applied to The Anomaly Patterns and Extremes in The Tropical African Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oluoch, K.; Marwan, N.; Trauth, M.; Loew, A.; Kurths, J.

    2012-04-01

    The African continent lie almost entirely within the tropics and as such its (tropical) climate systems are predominantly governed by the heterogeneous, spatial and temporal variability of the Hadley and Walker circulations. The variabilities in these meridional and zonal circulations lead to intensification or suppression of the intensities, durations and frequencies of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ICTZ) migration, trade winds and subtropical high-pressure regions and the continental monsoons. The above features play a central role in determining the African rainfall spatial and temporal variability patterns. The current understanding of these climate features and their influence on the rainfall patterns is not sufficiently understood. Like many real-world systems, atmospheric-oceanic processes exhibit non-linear properties that can be better explored using non-linear (NL) methods of time-series analysis. Over the recent years, the complex network approach has evolved as a powerful new player in understanding spatio-temporal dynamics and evolution of complex systems. Together with NL techniques, it is continuing to find new applications in many areas of science and technology including climate research. We would like to use these two powerful methods to understand the spatial structure and dynamics of African rainfall anomaly patterns and extremes. The method of event synchronization (ES) developed by Quiroga et al., 2002 and first applied to climate networks by Malik et al., 2011 looks at correlations with a dynamic time lag and as such, it is a more intuitive way to correlate a complex and heterogeneous system like climate networks than a fixed time delay most commonly used. On the other hand, the short comings of ES is its lack of vigorous test statistics for the significance level of the correlations, and the fact that only the events' time indices are synchronized while all information about how the relative intensities propagate within network

  7. The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) Version 2 - Global, 4 km Sea Surface Temperature and Related Thermal Stress Metrics for 1982-2008 (NODC Accession Number 0054501)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) is a collection of sea surface temperature (SST) and related thermal stress metrics, developed specifically for...

  8. The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) Version 4 - Global, 4 km Sea Surface Temperature and Related Thermal Stress Metrics for 1981-10-31 to 2010-12-31 (NODC Accession 0087989)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) is a collection of sea surface temperature (SST) and related thermal stress metrics, developed specifically for...

  9. The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) Version 3 - Global, 4 km Sea Surface Temperature and Related Thermal Stress Metrics for 1982-2009 (NODC Accession 0068999)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) is a collection of sea surface temperature (SST) and related thermal stress metrics, developed specifically for...

  10. The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) Version 2 - Global, 4 km Sea Surface Temperature and Related Thermal Stress Metrics for 1982-2008 (NODC Accession 0054501)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) is a collection of sea surface temperature (SST) and related thermal stress metrics, developed specifically for...

  11. The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) Version 5 - Global, 4 km Sea Surface Temperature and Related Thermal Stress Metrics for 1982-2012 (NCEI Accession 0126774)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Version 5 of the Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) is a global, 4 km, sea surface temperature (SST) and related thermal stress metrics dataset for...

  12. The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) Version 1 - Global, 4 km, Sea Surface Temperature and Related Thermal Stress Metrics for 1985-2005 (NODC Accession 0044419)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) is a collection of sea surface temperature (SST) and related thermal stress metrics, developed specifically for...

  13. The Largs high-latitude oxygen isotope anomaly (New Zealand) and climatic controls of oxygen isotopes in magma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blattner, P.; Williams, J.G.

    1991-01-01

    In northern Fiordland the Brook Street terrane of New Zealand consists of two units - the predominantly basaltic Plato and the predominantly andesitic Largs terrane. The Permian Plato terrane has normal to slightly enriched δ 18 O values, whereas the Largs terrane, which is of similar pre-early Triassic age, has not yielded a single normal δ 18 O SMOW result, with all of 17 total rocks showing less than 3.2per mille, seven less than -4per mille, and two less than -9per mille. These strongly anomalous data confirm an earlier suggested terrestrial character of Largs deposition, and demand the presence of Permo-Triassic geothermal systems running on subAntarctic to Antarctic meteoric water. The skewed data spectrum suggests a relatively immature flow system and likely values for the recharge water are -20per mille δ 18 O or less. For a climate distribution similar to the present one, inlcuding polar ice caps, this would indicate over 70deg of southern latitude. Rafts and xenoliths of Largs rocks have been entrained within Mackay Intrusives in the early Triassic. On field evidence the Mackay magmas have also intruded an early Darran Complex, but this complex has been substantially reactivated in the Cretaceous. It has δ 18 O values near 5.0per mille, which is distinctly low for island arc magmas. Since the complex is isotopically homogenous, its δ 18 O is unlikely to be a direct effect of the relatively shallow Largs terrane. More probable is a climate related slight depression of the δ 18 O of magma sources, in which other high-latitude, low-δ 18 O sediments and geothermal systems have been involved. (orig.)

  14. Village-level supply reliability of surface water irrigation in rural China: effects of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yanrong; Wang, Jinxia

    2018-06-01

    Surface water, as the largest part of water resources, plays an important role on China's agricultural production and food security. And surface water is vulnerable to climate change. This paper aims to examine the status of the supply reliability of surface water irrigation, and discusses how it is affected by climate change in rural China. The field data we used in this study was collected from a nine-province field survey during 2012 and 2013. Climate data are offered by China's National Meteorological Information Center which contains temperature and precipitation in the past 30 years. A Tobit model (or censored regression model) was used to estimate the influence of climate change on supply reliability of surface water irrigation. Descriptive results showed that, surface water supply reliability was 74 % in the past 3 years. Econometric results revealed that climate variables significantly influenced the supply reliability of surface water irrigation. Specifically, temperature is negatively related with the supply reliability of surface water irrigation; but precipitation positively influences the supply reliability of surface water irrigation. Besides, climate influence differs by seasons. In a word, this paper improves our understanding of the impact of climate change on agriculture irrigation and water supply reliability in the micro scale, and provides a scientific basis for relevant policy making.

  15. Medieval climate anomaly and little ice age as recorded in speleothem and tree-ring data from the Middle Atlas in Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wassenburg, J. A.; Immenhauser, A.; Richter, D. K.; Fietzke, J.; Scholz, D.; Jochum, K. P.; Riechelmann, D. F. C.; Schneider, L.; Esper, J.

    2012-04-01

    Progress has recently been made in assessing the spatial extend and timing of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) on hemispheric and global scales (Graham et al. 2011). Uncertainties still exist, however, since the transition from the MCA into the LIA seems to be diachronous, and in many cases, reconstructions are based on single climate archives (e.g., speleothems, tree-rings, or pollen data). In Morocco, cedar trees from the Middle and High Atlas have been used to reconstruct the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) back to 1049 AD (Esper et al., 2007), a metric integrating the evaporation-precipitation balance and soil properties. According to Graham et al. (2011), the MCA/LIA transition recorded in Moroccan tree rings occurred rather late (around 1400 AD) in comparison to the reconstructed winter temperature in the European Alps (e.g., Mangini et al., 2005), which show substantial changes about 50 years earlier. Here we compare precisely dated speleothem δ13C and trace element records from the Middle Atlas with an updated version of the tree-ring based PDSI reconstruction from Esper et al. (2007). Both stalagmite δ13C and strontium records support the prevalence of exceptionally dry conditions during the MCA and relatively wet conditions during the LIA. These changes have formerly been suggested to be related to persistent positive and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (Trouet et al., 2009). The speleothem based reconstruction extends back to 700 AD and, thus, provides insight on the precise timing of the driest period during the MCA in the Moroccan Middle Atlas.

  16. Effect of Climate Change on Surface Ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnell, Jordan L.; Prather, Michael J.; Josse, Beatrice; Naik, Vaishali; Horowitz, Larry W.; Zeng, Guang; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg

    2016-01-01

    The effect of future climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia is evaluated using present-day (2000s) and future (2100s) hourly surface ozone simulated by four global models. Future climate follows RCP8.5, while methane and anthropogenic ozone precursors are fixed at year-2000 levels. Climate change shifts the seasonal surface ozone peak to earlier in the year and increases the amplitude of the annual cycle. Increases in mean summertime and high-percentile ozone are generally found in polluted environments, while decreases are found in clean environments. We propose climate change augments the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions, thus reducing precursor export to neighboring downwind locations. Even with constant biogenic emissions, climate change causes the largest ozone increases at high percentiles. In most cases, air quality extreme episodes become larger and contain higher ozone levels relative to the rest of the distribution.

  17. Three-dimensional brain-surface MR images of brain anomalies in Fukuyama congenital muscular dystrophy and its differentiation from Duchenne muscular dystrophy with severe mental retardation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toda, Tatsushi; Watanabe, Toshiaki; Shimizu, Teruo; Iwata, Makoto; Kanazawa, Ichiro (Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Faculty of Medicine); Matsumura, Kiichiro

    1993-12-01

    Fukuyama congenital muscular dystrophy (FCMD) is the second most common form of muscular dystrophy in Japan and is peculiarly associated with brain anomalies such as micropolygyria. Since these anomalies are preferentially observed on the brain surface, it is difficult to identify them by either X-ray CT or conventional MRI. In addition, FCMD has an atypical (mild) form in which the patients are capable of walking. In such cases, clinical differential diagnosis from Duchenne muscular dystrophy with severe mental retardation (DMD-MR) is not necessarily easy. We analyzed the brain-surface structures of 4 typical FCMD cases. 1 atypical FCMD case, 4 DMD-MR cases, and 1 undiagnosed case using a method of 3-dimensional (3-D) brain-surface MR imaging; we then compared the results with dystrophin immuno-stainings of the biopsied skeletal muscles. In both typical and atypical FCMD cases, micropolygyria could be clearly demonstrated, with individual variations. The 3-D images were verified by neuropathology. Of the 4 DMD-MR cases, 3 cases showed no gyral abnormality. However, in 1 DMD-MR case the diagnosis was corrected to atypical FCMD because of micropolygyria found on 3-D MRI. The one undiangosed case was diagnosed as DMD-MR on the basis of 3-D MRI. There was a good correspondence between the results of the 3-D imaging and the dystrophin test. Recently, some FCMD cases with a complete deficiency of dystrophin have been reported. Therefore, the detection of brain anomalies is important for the precise diagnosis of FCMD; the present method is considered effective for this purpose. (author).

  18. Three-dimensional brain-surface MR images of brain anomalies in Fukuyama congenital muscular dystrophy and its differentiation from Duchenne muscular dystrophy with severe mental retardation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toda, Tatsushi; Watanabe, Toshiaki; Shimizu, Teruo; Iwata, Makoto; Kanazawa, Ichiro; Matsumura, Kiichiro.

    1993-01-01

    Fukuyama congenital muscular dystrophy (FCMD) is the second most common form of muscular dystrophy in Japan and is peculiarly associated with brain anomalies such as micropolygyria. Since these anomalies are preferentially observed on the brain surface, it is difficult to identify them by either X-ray CT or conventional MRI. In addition, FCMD has an atypical (mild) form in which the patients are capable of walking. In such cases, clinical differential diagnosis from Duchenne muscular dystrophy with severe mental retardation (DMD-MR) is not necessarily easy. We analyzed the brain-surface structures of 4 typical FCMD cases. 1 atypical FCMD case, 4 DMD-MR cases, and 1 undiagnosed case using a method of 3-dimensional (3-D) brain-surface MR imaging; we then compared the results with dystrophin immuno-stainings of the biopsied skeletal muscles. In both typical and atypical FCMD cases, micropolygyria could be clearly demonstrated, with individual variations. The 3-D images were verified by neuropathology. Of the 4 DMD-MR cases, 3 cases showed no gyral abnormality. However, in 1 DMD-MR case the diagnosis was corrected to atypical FCMD because of micropolygyria found on 3-D MRI. The one undiangosed case was diagnosed as DMD-MR on the basis of 3-D MRI. There was a good correspondence between the results of the 3-D imaging and the dystrophin test. Recently, some FCMD cases with a complete deficiency of dystrophin have been reported. Therefore, the detection of brain anomalies is important for the precise diagnosis of FCMD; the present method is considered effective for this purpose. (author)

  19. DOWN'S ANOMALY.

    Science.gov (United States)

    PENROSE, L.S.; SMITH, G.F.

    BOTH CLINICAL AND PATHOLOGICAL ASPECTS AND MATHEMATICAL ELABORATIONS OF DOWN'S ANOMALY, KNOWN ALSO AS MONGOLISM, ARE PRESENTED IN THIS REFERENCE MANUAL FOR PROFESSIONAL PERSONNEL. INFORMATION PROVIDED CONCERNS (1) HISTORICAL STUDIES, (2) PHYSICAL SIGNS, (3) BONES AND MUSCLES, (4) MENTAL DEVELOPMENT, (5) DERMATOGLYPHS, (6) HEMATOLOGY, (7)…

  20. Impacts of Climate Change on Surface Ozone and Intercontinental Ozone Pollution: A Multi-Model Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doherty, R. M.; Wild, O.; Shindell, D. T.; Zeng, G.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Collins, W. J.; Fiore, A. M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Dentener, F. J.; Schultz, M. G.; hide

    2013-01-01

    The impact of climate change between 2000 and 2095 SRES A2 climates on surface ozone (O)3 and on O3 source-receptor (S-R) relationships is quantified using three coupled climate-chemistry models (CCMs). The CCMs exhibit considerable variability in the spatial extent and location of surface O3 increases that occur within parts of high NOx emission source regions (up to 6 ppbv in the annual average and up to 14 ppbv in the season of maximum O3). In these source regions, all three CCMs show a positive relationship between surface O3 change and temperature change. Sensitivity simulations show that a combination of three individual chemical processes-(i) enhanced PAN decomposition, (ii) higher water vapor concentrations, and (iii) enhanced isoprene emission-largely reproduces the global spatial pattern of annual-mean surface O3 response due to climate change (R2 = 0.52). Changes in climate are found to exert a stronger control on the annual-mean surface O3 response through changes in climate-sensitive O3 chemistry than through changes in transport as evaluated from idealized CO-like tracer concentrations. All three CCMs exhibit a similar spatial pattern of annual-mean surface O3 change to 20% regional O3 precursor emission reductions under future climate compared to the same emission reductions applied under present-day climate. The surface O3 response to emission reductions is larger over the source region and smaller downwind in the future than under present-day conditions. All three CCMs show areas within Europe where regional emission reductions larger than 20% are required to compensate climate change impacts on annual-mean surface O3.

  1. The role of summer surface wind anomalies in the summer Arctic sea ice extent in 2010 and 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogi, M.; Wallace, J. M.

    2012-12-01

    Masayo Ogi 1 and John M. Wallace 2 masayo.ogi@jamstec.go.jp wallace@atmos.washington.edu 1Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan 2 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington The seasonal evolutions of Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) during the summers of 2010 and 2011 are contrasted with that in 2007. The June SIE in 2010 was lower than that in 2007 and was the lowest for that calendar month in the 32-year (1979-2010) record. The September SIE in 2010 would have set a new record low had it not been for the fact that the ice retreated more slowly during the summer months in that year than it did in 2007. Hence from early July onward, the SIE in 2010 remained at levels above those observed in 2007. The SIE minimum in September 2010 proved to be the third lowest on record, eclipsed by values in both 2007 and 2008. In spring and summer of 2011, the Arctic SIE was as low as it was in 2007, but the SIE in September 2011 did not reach record low levels. The SIE minimum in 2011 proved to be the second lowest on record for the period of 1979-2011. Summertime atmospheric conditions play an important role in controlling the variations in Arctic SIE. In a previous study based on statistical analysis of data collected prior to 2007, we showed that anticyclonic summertime circulation anomalies over the Arctic Ocean during the summer months favor low September SIE. We also found that the record-low ice summer year 2007 was characterized by a strong anticyclonic circulation anomaly, accompanied by an Ekman drift of ice out of the marginal seas toward the central Arctic and eventually toward the Fram Strait, as evidenced by the tracks of drifting buoys. Here we assess the extent to which year-to-year differences in summer winds over the Arctic might have contributed to the differing rates of retreat of ice during the summers of 2007, 2010, and 2011. Our results show that the May-June (MJ) pattern in 2010 is

  2. Climate-induced hotspots in surface energy fluxes from 1948 to 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheng Li; Liu Shuhua; Liu Heping

    2010-01-01

    Understanding how land surfaces respond to climate change requires knowledge of land-surface processes, which control the degree to which interannual variability and mean trends in climatic variables affect the surface energy budget. We use the latest version of the Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5), which is driven by the latest updated hybrid reanalysis-observation atmospheric forcing dataset constructed by Princeton University, to obtain global distributions of the surface energy budget from 1948 to 2000. We identify climate change hotspots and surface energy flux hotspots from 1948 to 2000. Surface energy flux hotspots, which reflect regions with strong changes in surface energy fluxes, reveal seasonal variations with strong signals in winter, spring, and autumn and weak ones in summer. Locations for surface energy flux hotspots are not, however, fully linked with those for climate change hotspots, suggesting that only in some regions are land surfaces more responsive to climate change in terms of interannual variability and mean trends.

  3. Quantifying the impact of climate change on enteric waterborne pathogen concentrations in surface water

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofstra, N.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change, among other factors, will impact waterborne pathogen concentrations in surface water worldwide, possibly increasing the risk of diseases caused by these pathogens. So far, the impacts are only determined qualitatively and thorough quantitative estimates of future pathogen

  4. ClimoBase: Rouse Canadian Surface Observations of Weather, Climate, and Hydrological Variables, 1984-1998

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — ClimoBase is a collection of surface climate measurements collected in Northern Canada by Dr. Wayne Rouse between 1984 and 1998 in three locations: Churchill,...

  5. Retrieving Temperature Anomaly in the Global Subsurface and Deeper Ocean From Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Hua; Li, Wene; Yan, Xiao-Hai

    2018-01-01

    Retrieving the subsurface and deeper ocean (SDO) dynamic parameters from satellite observations is crucial for effectively understanding ocean interior anomalies and dynamic processes, but it is challenging to accurately estimate the subsurface thermal structure over the global scale from sea surface parameters. This study proposes a new approach based on Random Forest (RF) machine learning to retrieve subsurface temperature anomaly (STA) in the global ocean from multisource satellite observations including sea surface height anomaly (SSHA), sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), sea surface salinity anomaly (SSSA), and sea surface wind anomaly (SSWA) via in situ Argo data for RF training and testing. RF machine-learning approach can accurately retrieve the STA in the global ocean from satellite observations of sea surface parameters (SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, SSWA). The Argo STA data were used to validate the accuracy and reliability of the results from the RF model. The results indicated that SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, and SSWA together are useful parameters for detecting SDO thermal information and obtaining accurate STA estimations. The proposed method also outperformed support vector regression (SVR) in global STA estimation. It will be a useful technique for studying SDO thermal variability and its role in global climate system from global-scale satellite observations.

  6. Satellite-based climate data records of surface solar radiation from the CM SAF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trentmann, Jörg; Cremer, Roswitha; Kothe, Steffen; Müller, Richard; Pfeifroth, Uwe

    2017-04-01

    The incoming surface solar radiation has been defined as an essential climate variable by GCOS. Long term monitoring of this part of the earth's energy budget is required to gain insights on the state and variability of the climate system. In addition, climate data sets of surface solar radiation have received increased attention over the recent years as an important source of information for solar energy assessments, for crop modeling, and for the validation of climate and weather models. The EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) is deriving climate data records (CDRs) from geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite instruments. Within the CM SAF these CDRs are accompanied by operational data at a short time latency to be used for climate monitoring. All data from the CM SAF is freely available via www.cmsaf.eu. Here we present the regional and the global climate data records of surface solar radiation from the CM SAF. The regional climate data record SARAH (Surface Solar Radiation Dataset - Heliosat, doi: 10.5676/EUM_SAF_CM/SARAH/V002) is based on observations from the series of Meteosat satellites. SARAH provides 30-min, daily- and monthly-averaged data of the effective cloud albedo, the solar irradiance (incl. spectral information), the direct solar radiation (horizontal and normal), and the sunshine duration from 1983 to 2015 for the full view of the Meteosat satellite (i.e, Europe, Africa, parts of South America, and the Atlantic ocean). The data sets are generated with a high spatial resolution of 0.05° allowing for detailed regional studies. The global climate data record CLARA (CM SAF Clouds, Albedo and Radiation dataset from AVHRR data, doi: 10.5676/EUM_SAF_CM/CLARA_AVHRR/V002) is based on observations from the series of AVHRR satellite instruments. CLARA provides daily- and monthly-averaged global data of the solar irradiance (SIS) from 1982 to 2015 with a spatial resolution of 0.25°. In addition to the solar surface

  7. Role of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region in the northeast Asia severe drought in summer 2014: month-to-month perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zhiqing; Fan, Ke; Wang, HuiJun

    2017-09-01

    The severe drought over northeast Asia in summer 2014 and the contribution to it by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region were investigated from the month-to-month perspective. The severe drought was accompanied by weak lower-level summer monsoon flow and featured an obvious northward movement during summer. The mid-latitude Asian summer (MAS) pattern and East Asia/Pacific teleconnection (EAP) pattern, induced by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) rainfall anomalies respectively, were two main bridges between the SST anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region and the severe drought. Warming in the Arabian Sea induced reduced rainfall over northeast India and then triggered a negative MAS pattern favoring the severe drought in June 2014. In July 2014, warming in the tropical western North Pacific led to a strong WNPSM and increased rainfall over the Philippine Sea, triggering a positive EAP pattern. The equatorial eastern Pacific and local warming resulted in increased rainfall over the off-equatorial western Pacific and triggered an EAP-like pattern. The EAP pattern and EAP-like pattern contributed to the severe drought in July 2014. A negative Indian Ocean dipole induced an anomalous meridional circulation, and warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific induced an anomalous zonal circulation, in August 2014. The two anomalous cells led to a weak ISM and WNPSM, triggering the negative MAS and EAP patterns responsible for the severe drought. Two possible reasons for the northward movement of the drought were also proposed.

  8. Impact of surface waves in a Regional Climate Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rutgersson, Anna; Sætra, Oyvind; Semedo, Alvaro

    2010-01-01

    A coupled regional atmosphere-wave model system is developed with the purpose of investigating the impact of climate changes on the wave field, as well as feed-back effects of the wave field on the atmospheric parameters. This study focuses on the effects of introducing a two-way atmosphere...

  9. Unravelling Diurnal Asymmetry of Surface Temperature in Different Climate Zones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinnarasi, R; Dhanya, C T; Chakravorty, Aniket; AghaKouchak, Amir

    2017-08-04

    Understanding the evolution of Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR), which has contradicting global and regional trends, is crucial because it influences environmental and human health. Here, we analyse the regional evolution of DTR trend over different climatic zones in India using a non-stationary approach known as the Multidimensional Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (MEEMD) method, to explore the generalized influence of regional climate on DTR, if any. We report a 0.36 °C increase in overall mean of DTR till 1980, however, the rate has declined since then. Further, arid deserts and warm-temperate grasslands exhibit negative DTR trends, while the west coast and sub-tropical forest in the north-east show positive trends. This transition predominantly begins with a 0.5 °C increase from the west coast and spreads with an increase of 0.25 °C per decade. These changes are more pronounced during winter and post-monsoon, especially in the arid desert and warm-temperate grasslands, the DTR decreased up to 2 °C, where the rate of increase in minimum temperature is higher than the maximum temperature. We conclude that both maximum and minimum temperature increase in response to the global climate change, however, their rates of increase are highly local and depend on the underlying climatic zone.

  10. Sensitivity of Distributions of Climate System Properties to Surface Temperature Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libardoni, A. G.; Forest, C. E.

    2011-12-01

    Predictions of climate change from models depend strongly on the representation of climate system properties emerging from the processes and feedbacks in the models. The quality of any model prediction can be evaluated by determining how well its output reproduces the observed climate system. With this evaluation, the reliability of climate projections derived from the model and provided for policy makers is assessed and quantified. In this study, surface temperature, upper-air temperature, and ocean heat content data are used to constrain the distributions of the parameters that define three climate system properties in the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model: climate sensitivity, the rate of ocean heat uptake into the deep ocean, and net anthropogenic aerosol forcing. In particular, we explore the sensitivity of the distributions to the surface temperature dataset used to estimate the likelihood of model output given the observed climate records. In total, five different reconstructions of past surface temperatures are used and the resulting parameter distribution functions differ from each other. Differences in estimates of climate sensitivity mode and mean are as great as 1 K between the datasets, with an overall range of 1.2 to 5.3 K using the 5-95 confidence intervals. Ocean effective diffusivity is poorly constrained regardless of which dataset is used. All distributions show broad distributions and only three show signs of a distribution mode. When a mode is present, they tend to be for low diffusivity values. Distributions for the net aerosol forcing show similar shapes and cluster into two groups that are shifted by approximately 0.1 watts per square meter. However, the overall spread of forcing values from the 5-95 confidence interval, -0.19 to -0.83 watts per square meter, is small compared to other uncertainties in climate forcings. Transient climate response estimates derived from these distributions range between 0.87 and 2.41 K. Similar to the

  11. A Coupled Surface Nudging Scheme for use in Retrospective Weather and Climate Simulations for Environmental Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    A surface analysis nudging scheme coupling atmospheric and land surface thermodynamic parameters has been implemented into WRF v3.8 (latest version) for use with retrospective weather and climate simulations, as well as for applications in air quality, hydrology, and ecosystem mo...

  12. Investigation of the effect of sealed surfaces on local climate in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weihs, Philipp; Hasel, Stefan; Mursch-Radlgruber, Erich; Gützer, Christian; Krispel, Stefan; Peyerl, Martin; Trimmel, Heidi

    2015-04-01

    Local climate is driven by the interaction between energy balance and energy transported by advected air. Short-wave and long-wave radiation are major components in this interaction. Some few studies (e.g. Santamouris et al.) showed that adjusting the grade of reflection of surfaces is an efficient way to influence temperature. The present study investigates the influence of high albedo concrete surfaces on local climate. The first step of the study consisted of experimental investigations: routine measurements of the short and longwave radiation balance, of the ground and of the air temperature and humidity at different heights above 6 different types of sealed surfaces were performed. During this measurement campaign the above mentioned components were measured over a duration of 4 months above two conventional asphalt surfaces, one conventional concrete and three newly developed concrete surfaces with increased reflectances. Measured albedo values amounted to 0.12±0.02 for the asphalt surfaces and to maximum values of 0.56 for high albedo concrete. The maximum difference in surface temperature between the asphalt surfaces and the high albedo concrete surfaces amounted to 15°C. In addition the emission constants of the different sealed surfaces were also determined and were compared to values from literature.. In a second step the urban energy balance model Envi_Met was used to simulate the surface temperature of the six surfaces. The simulated surface temperatures were compared to the measured surface temperatures and statements as to uncertainties of the model simulations were made In a third step, Envi_Met was used to simulate the local climate of an urban district in Vienna. The surface and air temperature and the SW, LW fluxes were calculated for different types of sealed surfaces. By performing calculations of thermal stress indices (UTCI, PMV), statements as to the influence of the type of sealed surface on thermal stress on humans was made.

  13. Dyonic anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henningson, Mans; Johansson, Erik P.G.

    2005-01-01

    We consider the problem of coupling a dyonic p-brane in d=2p+4 space-time dimensions to a prescribed (p+2)-form field strength. This is particularly subtle when p is odd. For the case p=1, we explicitly construct a coupling functional, which is a sum of two terms: one which is linear in the prescribed field strength, and one which describes the coupling of the brane to its self-field and takes the form of a Wess-Zumino term depending only on the embedding of the brane world-volume into space-time. We then show that this functional is well-defined only modulo a certain anomaly, related to the Euler class of the normal bundle of the brane world-volume

  14. El Niño, Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly and Coral Bleaching in the South Atlantic: A Chain of Events Modeled With a Bayesian Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lisboa, D. S.; Kikuchi, R. K. P.; Leão, Zelinda M. A. N.

    2018-04-01

    Coral bleaching represents one of the main climate-change related threats to reef ecosystems. This research represents a methodological alternative for modeling this phenomenon, focused on assessing uncertainties and complexities with a low number of observations. To develop this model, intermittent reef monitoring data from the largest reef complex in the South Atlantic collected over nine summers between 2000 and 2014 were used with remote sensing data to construct and train a bleaching seasonal prediction model. The Bayesian approach was used to construct the network as it is suitable for hierarchically organizing local thermal variables and combining them with El Niño indicators from the preceding winter to generate accurate bleaching predictions for the coming season. Network count information from six environmental indicators was used to calculate the probability of bleaching, which is mainly influenced by the combined information of two thermal indices; one thermal index is designed to track short period anomalies in the early summer that are capable of triggering bleaching (SST of five consecutive days), and the other index is responsible for tracking the accumulation of thermal stress over time, an index called degree heating trimester (DHT). In addition to developing the network, this study conducted the three tests of applicability proposed for model: 1- Perform the forecast of coral bleaching for the summer of 2016; 2- Investigate the role of turbidity during the bleaching episodes; and 3- Use the model information to identify areas with a lower predisposition to bleaching events.

  15. Can climate sensitivity be estimated from short-term relationships of top-of-atmosphere net radiation and surface temperature?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Bing; Min Qilong; Sun Wenbo; Hu Yongxiang; Fan, Tai-Fang

    2011-01-01

    Increasing the knowledge in climate radiative feedbacks is critical for current climate studies. This work focuses on short-term relationships between global mean surface temperature and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) net radiation. The relationships may be used to characterize the climate feedback as suggested by some recent studies. As those recent studies, an energy balance model with ocean mixed layer and both radiative and non-radiative heat sources is used here. The significant improvement of current model is that climate system memories are considered. Based on model simulations, short-term relationship between global mean surface temperature and TOA net radiation (or the linear striation feature as suggested by previous studies) might represent climate feedbacks when the system had no memories. However, climate systems with the same short-term feedbacks but different memories would have a similar linear striation feature. This linear striation feature reflects only fast components of climate feedbacks and may not represent the total climate feedback even when the memory length of climate systems is minimal. The potential errors in the use of short-term relationships in estimations of climate sensitivity could be big. In short time scales, fast climate processes may overwhelm long-term climate feedbacks. Thus, the climate radiative feedback parameter obtained from short-term data may not provide a reliable estimate of climate sensitivity. This result also suggests that long-term observations of global surface temperature and TOA radiation are critical in the understanding of climate feedbacks and sensitivities.

  16. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Land Surface Air Temperature Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A station observation-based global land monthly mean surface air temperature dataset at 0.5 0.5 latitude-longitude resolution for the period from 1948 to the present...

  17. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Land Surface Air Temperature Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A station observation-based global land monthly mean surface air temperature dataset at 0.5 x 0.5 latitude-longitude resolution for the period from 1948 to the...

  18. The relative importance of ENSO and tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies for seasonal precipitation over South America: a numerical study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pezzi, L. P.; Cavalcanti, I. F. A.

    The role of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during ENSO episodes over northeast Brazil (Nordeste) is investigated using the CPTEC/COLA Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). Four sets of integrations are performed using SST in El Niño and La Niña (ENSO) episodes, changing the SST of the Atlantic Ocean. A positive dipole (SST higher than normal in the tropical North Atlantic and below normal in the tropical South Atlantic) and a negative dipole (opposite conditions), are set as the boundary conditions of SST in the Atlantic Ocean. The four experiments are performed using El Niño or La Niña SST in all oceans, except in the tropical Atlantic where the two phases of the SST dipole are applied. Five initial conditions were integrated in each case in order to obtain four ensemble results. The positive SST dipole over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and El Niño conditions over the Pacific Ocean resulted in dry conditions over the Nordeste. When the negative dipole and El Niño conditions over the Pacific Ocean were applied, the results showed precipitation above normal over the north of Nordeste. When La Niña conditions over Pacific Ocean were tested together with a negative dipole, positive precipitation anomalies occurred over the whole Nordeste. Using the positive dipole over the tropical Atlantic, the precipitation over Nordeste was below average. During La Niña episodes, the Atlantic Ocean conditions have a larger effect on the precipitation of Nordeste than the Pacific Ocean. In El Niño conditions, only the north region of Nordeste is affected by the Atlantic SST. Other tropical areas of South America show a change only in the intensity of anomalies. Central and southeast regions of South America are affected by the Atlantic conditions only during La Niña conditions, whereas during El Niño these regions are influenced only by conditions in the Pacific Ocean.

  19. Flow-dependent assimilation of sea surface temperature in isopycnal coordinates with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François Counillon

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We document a pilot stochastic re-analysis computed by assimilating sea surface temperature (SST anomalies into the ocean component of the coupled Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM for the period 1950–2010 (doi: 10.11582/2016.00002. NorCPM is based on the Norwegian Earth System Model and uses the ensemble Kalman filter for data assimilation (DA. Here, we assimilate SST from the stochastic HadISST2 historical reconstruction. The accuracy, reliability and drift are investigated using both assimilated and independent observations. NorCPM is slightly overdispersive against assimilated observations but shows stable performance through the analysis period. It demonstrates skills against independent measurements: sea surface height, heat and salt content, in particular in the Equatorial and North Pacific, the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG region and the Nordic Seas. Furthermore, NorCPM provides a reliable monitoring of the SPG index and represents the vertical temperature variability there, in good agreement with observations. The monitoring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is also encouraging. The benefit of using a flow-dependent assimilation method and constructing the covariance in isopycnal coordinates are investigated in the SPG region. Isopycnal coordinates discretisation is found to better capture the vertical structure than standard depth-coordinate discretisation, because it leads to a deeper influence of the assimilated surface observations. The vertical covariance shows a pronounced seasonal and decadal variability that highlights the benefit of flow-dependent DA method. This study demonstrates the potential of NorCPM to compute an ocean re-analysis for the 19th and 20th centuries when SST observations are available.

  20. Wetlands inform how climate extremes influence surface water expansion and contraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderhoof, Melanie; Lane, Charles R.; McManus, Michael L.; Alexander, Laurie C.; Christensen, Jay R.

    2018-01-01

    Effective monitoring and prediction of flood and drought events requires an improved understanding of how and why surface water expansion and contraction in response to climate varies across space. This paper sought to (1) quantify how interannual patterns of surface water expansion and contraction vary spatially across the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) and adjacent Northern Prairie (NP) in the United States, and (2) explore how landscape characteristics influence the relationship between climate inputs and surface water dynamics. Due to differences in glacial history, the PPR and NP show distinct patterns in regards to drainage development and wetland density, together providing a diversity of conditions to examine surface water dynamics. We used Landsat imagery to characterize variability in surface water extent across 11 Landsat path/rows representing the PPR and NP (images spanned 1985–2015). The PPR not only experienced a 2.6-fold greater surface water extent under median conditions relative to the NP, but also showed a 3.4-fold greater change in surface water extent between drought and deluge conditions. The relationship between surface water extent and accumulated water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) was quantified per watershed and statistically related to variables representing hydrology-related landscape characteristics (e.g., infiltration capacity, surface storage capacity, stream density). To investigate the influence stream connectivity has on the rate at which surface water leaves a given location, we modeled stream-connected and stream-disconnected surface water separately. Stream-connected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with greater total wetland area, but lower total wetland density. Disconnected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with higher wetland density, lower infiltration and less anthropogenic

  1. Wetlands inform how climate extremes influence surface water expansion and contraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderhoof, Melanie K.; Lane, Charles R.; McManus, Michael G.; Alexander, Laurie C.; Christensen, Jay R.

    2018-03-01

    Effective monitoring and prediction of flood and drought events requires an improved understanding of how and why surface water expansion and contraction in response to climate varies across space. This paper sought to (1) quantify how interannual patterns of surface water expansion and contraction vary spatially across the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) and adjacent Northern Prairie (NP) in the United States, and (2) explore how landscape characteristics influence the relationship between climate inputs and surface water dynamics. Due to differences in glacial history, the PPR and NP show distinct patterns in regards to drainage development and wetland density, together providing a diversity of conditions to examine surface water dynamics. We used Landsat imagery to characterize variability in surface water extent across 11 Landsat path/rows representing the PPR and NP (images spanned 1985-2015). The PPR not only experienced a 2.6-fold greater surface water extent under median conditions relative to the NP, but also showed a 3.4-fold greater change in surface water extent between drought and deluge conditions. The relationship between surface water extent and accumulated water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) was quantified per watershed and statistically related to variables representing hydrology-related landscape characteristics (e.g., infiltration capacity, surface storage capacity, stream density). To investigate the influence stream connectivity has on the rate at which surface water leaves a given location, we modeled stream-connected and stream-disconnected surface water separately. Stream-connected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with greater total wetland area, but lower total wetland density. Disconnected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with higher wetland density, lower infiltration and less anthropogenic drainage

  2. Wetlands inform how climate extremes influence surface water expansion and contraction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. K. Vanderhoof

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Effective monitoring and prediction of flood and drought events requires an improved understanding of how and why surface water expansion and contraction in response to climate varies across space. This paper sought to (1 quantify how interannual patterns of surface water expansion and contraction vary spatially across the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR and adjacent Northern Prairie (NP in the United States, and (2 explore how landscape characteristics influence the relationship between climate inputs and surface water dynamics. Due to differences in glacial history, the PPR and NP show distinct patterns in regards to drainage development and wetland density, together providing a diversity of conditions to examine surface water dynamics. We used Landsat imagery to characterize variability in surface water extent across 11 Landsat path/rows representing the PPR and NP (images spanned 1985–2015. The PPR not only experienced a 2.6-fold greater surface water extent under median conditions relative to the NP, but also showed a 3.4-fold greater change in surface water extent between drought and deluge conditions. The relationship between surface water extent and accumulated water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration was quantified per watershed and statistically related to variables representing hydrology-related landscape characteristics (e.g., infiltration capacity, surface storage capacity, stream density. To investigate the influence stream connectivity has on the rate at which surface water leaves a given location, we modeled stream-connected and stream-disconnected surface water separately. Stream-connected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with greater total wetland area, but lower total wetland density. Disconnected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with higher wetland density, lower infiltration and less

  3. Impact of Urban Climate Landscape Patterns on Land Surface Temperature in Wuhan, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasha Wang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Facing urban warming, mitigation and adaptation strategies are not efficient enough to tackle excessive urban heat, especially at the local scale. The local climate zone (LCZ classification scheme is employed to examine the diversity and complexity of the climate response within a city. This study suggests that zonal practice could be an efficient way to bridge the knowledge gap between climate research and urban planning. Urban surfaces classified by LCZ are designated as urban climate landscapes, which extends the LCZ concept to urban planning applications. Selecting Wuhan as a case study, we attempt to explore the climatic effect of landscape patterns. Thermal effects are compared across the urban climate landscapes, and the relationships between patch metrics and land surface temperature (LST are quantified. Results indicate that climate landscape layout is a considerable factor impacting local urban climate. For Wuhan, 500 m is an optimal scale for exploring landscape pattern-temperature relationships. Temperature contrast between surrounding landscape patches has a major influence on LST. Generally, fragmental landscape patches contribute to heat release. For most climate landscape types, patch metrics also have a significant effect on thermal response. When three metrics are included as predictive variables, 53.3% of the heating intensity variation can be explained for the Large Lowrise landscape, while 57.4% of the cooling intensity variation can be explained for the Water landscape. Therefore, this article claims that land-based layout optimization strategy at local scale, which conforms to planning manner, should be taken into account in terms of heat management.

  4. Comparison of elevation and remote sensing derived products as auxiliary data for climate surface interpolation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez, Otto; Guo, Qinghua; Klinger, Robert C.; Li, Wenkai; Doherty, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Climate models may be limited in their inferential use if they cannot be locally validated or do not account for spatial uncertainty. Much of the focus has gone into determining which interpolation method is best suited for creating gridded climate surfaces, which often a covariate such as elevation (Digital Elevation Model, DEM) is used to improve the interpolation accuracy. One key area where little research has addressed is in determining which covariate best improves the accuracy in the interpolation. In this study, a comprehensive evaluation was carried out in determining which covariates were most suitable for interpolating climatic variables (e.g. precipitation, mean temperature, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature). We compiled data for each climate variable from 1950 to 1999 from approximately 500 weather stations across the Western United States (32° to 49° latitude and −124.7° to −112.9° longitude). In addition, we examined the uncertainty of the interpolated climate surface. Specifically, Thin Plate Spline (TPS) was used as the interpolation method since it is one of the most popular interpolation techniques to generate climate surfaces. We considered several covariates, including DEM, slope, distance to coast (Euclidean distance), aspect, solar potential, radar, and two Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) products derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). A tenfold cross-validation was applied to determine the uncertainty of the interpolation based on each covariate. In general, the leading covariate for precipitation was radar, while DEM was the leading covariate for maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures. A comparison to other products such as PRISM and WorldClim showed strong agreement across large geographic areas but climate surfaces generated in this study (ClimSurf) had greater variability at high elevation regions, such as in the Sierra

  5. Turbulent Mixing and Vertical Heat Transfer in the Surface Mixed Layer of the Arctic Ocean: Implication of a Cross-Pycnocline High-Temperature Anomaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawaguchi, Yusuke; Takeda, Hiroki

    2017-04-01

    This study focuses on the mixing processes in the vicinity of surface mixed layer (SML) of the Arctic Ocean. Turbulence activity and vertical heat transfer are quantitatively characterized in the Northwind Abyssal Plain, based on the RV Mirai Arctic cruise, during the transition from late summer to early winter 2014. During the cruise, noticeable storm events were observed, which came over the ship's location and contributed to the deepening of the SML. According to the ship-based microstructure observation, within the SML, the strong wind events produced enhanced dissipation rates of turbulent kinetic energy in the order of magnitude of ɛ = 10-6-10-4W kg-1. On thermal variance dissipation rate, χ increases toward the base of SML, reaching O(10-7) K2 s-1, resulting in vertical heat flux of O(10) W m-2. During the occasional energetic mixing events, the near-surface warm water was transferred downward and penetrated through the SML base, creating a cross-pycnocline high-temperature anomaly (CPHTA) at approximately 20-30 m depth. Near CPHTA, the vertical heat flux was anomalously magnified to O(10-100) W m-2. Following the fixed-point observation, in the regions of marginal and thick ice zones, the SML heat content was monitored using an autonomous drifting buoy, UpTempO. During most of the ice-covered period, the ocean-to-ice turbulent heat flux was dominant, rather than the diapycnal heat transfer across the SML bottom interface.

  6. Sea Surface Temperature for Climate Applications: A New Dataset from the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchant, C. J.; Hulley, G. C.

    2013-12-01

    There are many datasets describing the evolution of global sea surface temperature (SST) over recent decades -- so why make another one? Answer: to provide observations of SST that have particular qualities relevant to climate applications: independence, accuracy and stability. This has been done within the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initative (CCI) project on SST. Independence refers to the fact that the new SST CCI dataset is not derived from or tuned to in situ observations. This matters for climate because the in situ observing network used to assess marine climate change (1) was not designed to monitor small changes over decadal timescales, and (2) has evolved significantly in its technology and mix of types of observation, even during the past 40 years. The potential for significant artefacts in our picture of global ocean surface warming is clear. Only by having an independent record can we confirm (or refute) that the work done to remove biases/trend artefacts in in-situ datasets has been successful. Accuracy is the degree to which SSTs are unbiased. For climate applications, a common accuracy target is 0.1 K for all regions of the ocean. Stability is the degree to which the bias, if any, in a dataset is constant over time. Long-term instability introduces trend artefacts. To observe trends of the magnitude of 'global warming', SST datasets need to be stable to <5 mK/year. The SST CCI project has produced a satellite-based dataset that addresses these characteristics relevant to climate applications. Satellite radiances (brightness temperatures) have been harmonised exploiting periods of overlapping observations between sensors. Less well-characterised sensors have had their calibration tuned to that of better characterised sensors (at radiance level). Non-conventional retrieval methods (optimal estimation) have been employed to reduce regional biases to the 0.1 K level, a target violated in most satellite SST datasets. Models for

  7. Impact of climate change on surface ozone and deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langner, J.; Bergstroem, R.; Foltescu, V. [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrkoeping (Sweden)

    2005-02-01

    The potential impact of regional climate change on the distribution and deposition of air pollutants in Europe has been studied using a regional chemistry/transport/deposition model, MATCH. MATCH was set up using meteorological output from two 10-year climate change experiments made with the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric climate model version 1 (RCA1). RCA1 was forced by boundary conditions from two different global climate models using the IPCC IS92a (business as usual) emission scenario. The global mean warming in both the GCMs was 2.6 K and was reached in the period 2050-2070. Simulations with MATCH indicate substantial potential impact of regional climate change on both deposition of oxidised nitrogen and concentrations of surface ozone. The simulations show a strong increase in surface ozone expressed as AOT40 and mean of daily maximum over southern and central Europe and a decrease in northern Europe. The simulated changes in April-September AOT40 are significant in relation to inter-annual variability over extended areas. Changes in deposition of oxidised nitrogen are much smaller and also less coherent due to the strong inter-annual variability in precipitation in the RCA1 simulations and differences in the regional climate change simulated with RCA1 in the two regional scenarios. Changes in simulated annual deposition are significant in relation to inter-annual variability only over small areas. This indicates that longer simulation periods are necessary to establish changes in deposition. (author)

  8. Impact of climate change on surface ozone and deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langner, Joakim; Bergström, Robert; Foltescu, Valentin

    The potential impact of regional climate change on the distribution and deposition of air pollutants in Europe has been studied using a regional chemistry/transport/deposition model, MATCH. MATCH was set up using meteorological output from two 10-year climate change experiments made with the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric climate model version 1 (RCA1). RCA1 was forced by boundary conditions from two different global climate models using the IPCC IS92a (business as usual) emission scenario. The global mean warming in both the GCMs was 2.6 K and was reached in the period 2050-2070. Simulations with MATCH indicate substantial potential impact of regional climate change on both deposition of oxidised nitrogen and concentrations of surface ozone. The simulations show a strong increase in surface ozone expressed as AOT40 and mean of daily maximum over southern and central Europe and a decrease in northern Europe. The simulated changes in April-September AOT40 are significant in relation to inter-annual variability over extended areas. Changes in deposition of oxidised nitrogen are much smaller and also less coherent due to the strong inter-annual variability in precipitation in the RCA1 simulations and differences in the regional climate change simulated with RCA1 in the two regional scenarios. Changes in simulated annual deposition are significant in relation to inter-annual variability only over small areas. This indicates that longer simulation periods are necessary to establish changes in deposition.

  9. The impact of climatic and non-climatic factors on land surface temperature in southwestern Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roşca, Cristina Florina; Harpa, Gabriela Victoria; Croitoru, Adina-Eliza; Herbel, Ioana; Imbroane, Alexandru Mircea; Burada, Doina Cristina

    2017-11-01

    Land surface temperature is one of the most important parameters related to global warming. It depends mainly on soil type, discontinuous vegetation cover, or lack of precipitation. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between high LST, synoptic conditions and air masses trajectories, vegetation cover, and soil type in one of the driest region in Romania. In order to calculate the land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index, five satellite images of LANDSAT missions 5 and 7, covering a period of 26 years (1986-2011), were selected, all of them collected in the month of June. The areas with low vegetation density were derived from normalized difference vegetation index, while soil types have been extracted from Corine Land Cover database. HYSPLIT application was employed to identify the air masses origin based on their backward trajectories for each of the five study cases. Pearson, logarithmic, and quadratic correlations were used to detect the relationships between land surface temperature and observed ground temperatures, as well as between land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index. The most important findings are: strong correlation between land surface temperature derived from satellite images and maximum ground temperature recorded in a weather station located in the area, as well as between areas with land surface temperature equal to or higher than 40.0 °C and those with lack of vegetation; the sandy soils are the most prone to high land surface temperature and lack of vegetation, followed by the chernozems and brown soils; extremely severe drought events may occur in the region.

  10. Future projections of the climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard with the regional climate model MAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, C.; Fettweis, X.; Erpicum, M.

    2015-01-01

    We have performed future projections of the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard with the MAR regional climate model forced by the MIROC5 global model, following the RCP8.5 scenario at a spatial resolution of 10 km. MAR predicts a similar evolution of increasing surface melt everywhere in Svalbard followed by a sudden acceleration of the melt around 2050, with a larger melt increase in the south compared to the north of the archipelago and the ice caps. This melt acceleration around 2050 is mainly driven by the albedo-melt feedback associated with the expansion of the ablation/bare ice zone. This effect is dampened in part as the solar radiation itself is projected to decrease due to cloudiness increase. The near-surface temperature is projected to increase more in winter than in summer as the temperature is already close to 0 °C in summer. The model also projects a strong winter west-to-east temperature gradient, related to the large decrease of sea ice cover around Svalbard. At the end of the century (2070-2099 mean), SMB is projected to be negative over the entire Svalbard and, by 2085, all glaciated regions of Svalbard are predicted to undergo net ablation, meaning that, under the RCP8.5 scenario, all the glaciers and ice caps are predicted to start their irreversible retreat before the end of the 21st century.

  11. Sensitivity of Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance to surface albedo parameterization: a study with a regional climate model

    OpenAIRE

    Angelen, J. H.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; Lhermitte, S.; Fettweis, X.; Kuipers Munneke, P.; Broeke, M. R.; Meijgaard, E.; Smeets, C. J. P. P.

    2012-01-01

    We present a sensitivity study of the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet, as modeled using a regional atmospheric climate model, to various parameter settings in the albedo scheme. The snow albedo scheme uses grain size as a prognostic variable and further depends on cloud cover, solar zenith angle and black carbon concentration. For the control experiment the overestimation of absorbed shortwave radiation (+6%) at the K-transect (west Greenland) for the period 2004–2009 is...

  12. Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Surface Runoff in the Luan River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sidong Zeng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff changes is the focus of climate change and hydrological research. This paper presents an integrated method employing the Budyko-based Fu model, hydrological modeling, and climate elasticity approaches to separate the effects of the two driving factors on surface runoff in the Luan River basin, China. The Budyko-based Fu model and the double mass curve method are used to analyze runoff changes during the period 1958~2009. Then two types of hydrological models (the distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool model and the lumped SIMHYD model and seven climate elasticity methods (including a nonparametric method and six Budyko-based methods are applied to estimate the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change. The results show that all quantification methods are effective, and the results obtained by the nine methods are generally consistent. During the study period, the effects of climate change on runoff change accounted for 28.3~46.8% while those of human activities contributed with 53.2~71.7%, indicating that both factors have significant effects on the runoff decline in the basin, and that the effects of human activities are relatively stronger than those of climate change.

  13. Public Perception of Climate Change and the New Climate Dice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto

    2012-01-01

    "Climate dice", describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons, have become more and more "loaded" in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3 sigma) warmer than the climatology of the 1951-1980 base period. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth's surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming, because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change.

  14. The Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in surface and deep ocean temperature and salinity fields from unperturbed climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanchettin, D.; Jungclaus, J. H.

    2013-12-01

    Large multidecadal fluctuations in basin-average sea-surface temperature (SST) are a known feature of observed, reconstructed and simulated variability in the North Atlantic Ocean. This phenomenon is often referred to as Multidecadal Atlantic Variability or AMV. Historical AMV fluctuations are associated with analog basin-scale changes in sea-surface salinity, so that warming corresponds to salinification and cooling to freshening [Polyakov et al., 2005]. The surface imprint of the AMV further corresponds to same-sign fluctuations in the shallow ocean and with opposite-sign fluctuations in the deep ocean for both temperature and salinity [Polyakov et al., 2005]. This out-of-phase behavior reflects the thermohaline overturning circulation shaping North Atlantic's low-frequency variability. Several processes contribute to the AMV, involving both ocean-atmosphere coupled processes and deep ocean circulation [e.g., Grossmann and Klotzbach, 2009]. In particular, recirculation in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre region of salinity anomalies from Arctic freshwater export may trigger multidecadal variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and therefore may be part of the AMV [Jungclaus et al., 2005; Dima and Lohmann, 2007]. With this contribution, we aim to improve the physical interpretation of the AMV by investigating spatial and temporal patterns of temperature and salinity fields in the shallow and deep ocean. We focus on two unperturbed millennial-scale simulations performed with the Max Planck Institute Earth system model in its paleo (MPI-ESM-P) and low-resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) configurations, which provide reference control climates for assessments of pre-industrial and historical climate simulations. The two model configurations only differ for the presence, in MPI-ESM-LR, of an active module for dynamical vegetation. We use spatial-average indices and empirical orthogonal functions/principal components to track the horizontal and vertical

  15. A Satellite-Based Surface Radiation Climatology Derived by Combining Climate Data Records and Near-Real-Time Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bodo Ahrens

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a method for adjusting long-term climate data records (CDRs for the integrated use with near-real-time data using the example of surface incoming solar irradiance (SIS. Recently, a 23-year long (1983–2005 continuous SIS CDR has been generated based on the visible channel (0.45–1 μm of the MVIRI radiometers onboard the geostationary Meteosat First Generation Platform. The CDR is available from the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF. Here, it is assessed whether a homogeneous extension of the SIS CDR to the present is possible with operationally generated surface radiation data provided by CM SAF using the SEVIRI and GERB instruments onboard the Meteosat Second Generation satellites. Three extended CM SAF SIS CDR versions consisting of MVIRI-derived SIS (1983–2005 and three different SIS products derived from the SEVIRI and GERB instruments onboard the MSG satellites (2006 onwards were tested. A procedure to detect shift inhomogeneities in the extended data record (1983–present was applied that combines the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT and a penalized maximal T-test with visual inspection. Shift detection was done by comparing the SIS time series with the ground stations mean, in accordance with statistical significance. Several stations of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN and about 50 stations of the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA over Europe were used as the ground-based reference. The analysis indicates several breaks in the data record between 1987 and 1994 probably due to artefacts in the raw data and instrument failures. After 2005 the MVIRI radiometer was replaced by the narrow-band SEVIRI and the broadband GERB radiometers and a new retrieval algorithm was applied. This induces significant challenges for the homogenisation across the satellite generations. Homogenisation is performed by applying a mean-shift correction depending on the shift size of

  16. Higher surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet revealed by high - resolution climate modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ettema, Janneke; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; van Meijgaard, Erik; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Bamber, Jonathan L.; Box, Jason E.; Bales, Roger C.

    2009-01-01

    High‐resolution (∼11 km) regional climate modeling shows total annual precipitation on the Greenland ice sheet for 1958–2007 to be up to 24% and surface mass balance up to 63% higher than previously thought. The largest differences occur in coastal southeast Greenland, where the much higher

  17. Effect of climate change on runoff of Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium from land to surface water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterk, Ankie; Schijven, Jack; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria; de Nijs, Ton

    2016-05-15

    Faeces originating from wildlife, domestic animals or manure-fertilized fields, is considered an important source of zoonotic pathogens to which people may be exposed by, for instance, bathing or drinking-water consumption. An increase in runoff, and associated wash-off of animal faeces from fields, is assumed to contribute to the increase of disease outbreaks during periods of high precipitation. Climate change is expected to increase winter precipitation and extreme precipitation events during summer, but has simultaneously also other effects such as temperature rise and changes in evapotranspiration. The question is to what extent the combination of these effects influence the input of zoonotic pathogens to the surface waters. To quantitatively analyse the impacts of climate change on pathogen runoff, pathogen concentrations reaching surface waters through runoff were calculated by combining an input model for catchment pathogen loads with the Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS). Runoff of Cryptosporidium and Campylobacter was evaluated under different climate change scenarios and by applying different scenarios for sources of faecal pollution in the catchments, namely dairy cows and geese and manure fertilization. Model evaluation of these scenarios shows that climate change has little overall impact on runoff of Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium from land to the surface waters. Even though individual processes like runoff fluxes, pathogen release and dilution are affected, either positively or negatively, the net effect on the pathogen concentration in surface waters and consequently also on infection risks through recreation seems limited. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  18. Signal and noise in Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observed surface mass variations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schrama, E.J.O.; Wouters, B.; Lavallée, D.A.

    2007-01-01

    The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) product used for this study consists of 43 monthly potential coefficient sets released by the GRACE science team which are used to generate surface mass thickness grids expressed as equivalent water heights (EQWHs). We optimized both the smoothing

  19. Impacts of Climate Change and Land use Changes on Land Surface Radiation and Energy Budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Land surface radiation and energy budgets are critical to address a variety of scientific and application issues related to climate trends, weather predictions, hydrologic and biogeophysical modeling, and the monitoring of ecosystem health and agricultural crops. This is an introductory paper to t...

  20. Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance: evaluating simulations and making projections with regional climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rae, J.G.L.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.; Edwards, T.L.; Fettweis, X.; Gregory, J.M.; Hewitt, H.T.; Lowe, J.A.; Lucas-Picher, P.; Mottram, R.H.; Payne, A.J.; Ridley, J.K.; Shannon, S.R.; van de Berg, W.J.; van de Wal, R.S.W.; van den Broeke, M.R.

    2012-01-01

    Four high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) have been set up for the area of Greenland, with the aim of providing future projections of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), and its contribution to sea level rise, with greater accuracy than is possible from coarser-resolution

  1. Possible influence of long-term sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific on global zone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Komhyr, W D; Oltmans, S J; Grass, R D [Atmospheric Administration Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Lab., Boulder, CO (USA); Leonard, R K [Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO (USA)

    1991-01-01

    A significant negative correlation exists between summer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east equatorial Pacific and late-October south pole total ozone values. SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific were anomalously warmer during 1976-1987 compared with 1962-1975. QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) easterly winds in the equatorial Pacific stratosphere were generally stronger after 1975. Before the early-to-mid 1970s the trend in global ozone was generally upward, but then turned downward. Total ozone at Hawaii and Samoa, which had been decreasing during 1976-1987, showed recovery to mid-1970s values in 1988-1989 following a drop in SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific to low values last observed there prior to 1976. During late October 1988, total south pole ozone, which had decreased from ca 280 Dobson units (DU) before 1980 to 140 DU in 1987, suddenly recovered to 250 DU, though substantial ozone depletion by heterogeneous photochemical processes involving polar stratospheric clouds was still evident in the south pole ozone vertical profiles. These observations suggest that the downward trend in ozone observed over the globe in recent years may have been at least partly meteorologically induced, possibly via modulation by the warmer tropical Pacific ocean waters of QBO easterly winds at the equator, of Hadley Cell circulation, or other factors. A cursory analysis of geostrophic wind flow around the Baffin Island low suggests a meteorological influence on the observed downward trend in ozone over North America during the past decade. Because ozone has a lifetime that varies from years to minutes, changes in atmospheric dynamics have a potential to not only redistribute ozone over the globe but also to change global ozone abundance. 47 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  2. The vertical distribution of climate forcings and feedbacks from the surface to top of atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Previdi, Michael [Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States); Liepert, Beate G. [NorthWest Research Associates, Redmond, WA (United States)

    2012-08-15

    The radiative forcings and feedbacks that determine Earth's climate sensitivity are typically defined at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) or tropopause, yet climate sensitivity itself refers to a change in temperature at the surface. In this paper, we describe how TOA radiative perturbations translate into surface temperature changes. It is shown using first principles that radiation changes at the TOA can be equated with the change in energy stored by the oceans and land surface. This ocean and land heat uptake in turn involves an adjustment of the surface radiative and non-radiative energy fluxes, with the latter being comprised of the turbulent exchange of latent and sensible heat between the surface and atmosphere. We employ the radiative kernel technique to decompose TOA radiative feedbacks in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report climate models into components associated with changes in radiative heating of the atmosphere and of the surface. (We consider the equilibrium response of atmosphere-mixed layer ocean models subjected to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO{sub 2}). It is shown that most feedbacks, i.e., the temperature, water vapor and cloud feedbacks, (as well as CO{sub 2} forcing) affect primarily the turbulent energy exchange at the surface rather than the radiative energy exchange. Specifically, the temperature feedback increases the surface turbulent (radiative) energy loss by 2.87 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1} (0.60 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1}) in the multimodel mean; the water vapor feedback decreases the surface turbulent energy loss by 1.07 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1} and increases the surface radiative heating by 0.89 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1}; and the cloud feedback decreases both the turbulent energy loss and the radiative heating at the surface by 0.43 and 0.24 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1}, respectively. Since changes to the surface turbulent energy exchange are dominated in the global mean sense by changes in surface evaporation, these results serve to highlight

  3. Response of the North Atlantic surface and intermediate ocean structure to climate warming of MIS 11.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandiano, Evgenia S; van der Meer, Marcel T J; Schouten, Stefan; Fahl, Kirsten; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S; Bauch, Henning A

    2017-04-10

    Investigating past interglacial climates not only help to understand how the climate system operates in general, it also forms a vital basis for climate predictions. We reconstructed vertical stratification changes in temperature and salinity in the North Atlantic for a period some 400 ka ago (MIS11), an interglacial time analogue of a future climate. As inferred from a unique set of biogeochemical, geochemical, and faunal data, the internal upper ocean stratification across MIS 11 shows distinct depth-dependent dynamical changes related to vertical as well as lateral shifts in the upper Atlantic meridional circulation system. Importantly, transient cold events are recognized near the end of the long phase of postglacial warming at surface, subsurface, mid, and deeper water layers. These data demonstrate that MIS 11 coolings over the North Atlantic were initially triggered by freshwater input at the surface and expansion of cold polar waters into the Subpolar Gyre. The cooling signal was then transmitted downwards into mid-water depths. Since the cold events occurred after the main deglacial phase we suggest that their cause might be related to continuous melting of the Greenland ice sheet, a mechanism that might also be relevant for the present and upcoming climate.

  4. A role for land surface forcing of North Atlantic climate and isotope signals during the 8.2kyr event?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopcroft, Peter; Valdes, Paul

    2014-05-01

    a uniform value of -30 permille, the δ18O of precipitation anomaly shows reasonably strong deviations across different parts of the North Atlantic region implying a possible contribution to signals detected in proxy archives. These results raise the possibility that land surface changes associated with abrupt climate change events might be more important than previously assumed.

  5. Anomaly transform methods based on total energy and ocean heat content norms for generating ocean dynamic disturbances for ensemble climate forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanova, Vanya; Hense, Andreas

    2017-08-01

    In our study we use the anomaly transform, a special case of ensemble transform method, in which a selected set of initial oceanic anomalies in space, time and variables are defined and orthogonalized. The resulting orthogonal perturbation patterns are designed such that they pick up typical balanced anomaly structures in space and time and between variables. The metric used to set up the eigen problem is taken either as the weighted total energy with its zonal, meridional kinetic and available potential energy terms having equal contributions, or the weighted ocean heat content in which a disturbance is applied only to the initial temperature fields. The choices of a reference state for defining the initial anomalies are such that either perturbations on seasonal timescales and or on interannual timescales are constructed. These project a-priori only the slow modes of the ocean physical processes, such that the disturbances grow mainly in the Western Boundary Currents, in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the El Nino Southern Oscillation regions. An additional set of initial conditions is designed to fit in a least square sense data from global ocean reanalysis. Applying the AT produced sets of disturbances to oceanic initial conditions initialized by observations of the MPIOM-ESM coupled model on T63L47/GR15 resolution, four ensemble and one hind-cast experiments were performed. The weighted total energy norm is used to monitor the amplitudes and rates of the fastest growing error modes. The results showed minor dependence of the instabilities or error growth on the selected metric but considerable change due to the magnitude of the scaling amplitudes of the perturbation patterns. In contrast to similar atmospheric applications, we find an energy conversion from kinetic to available potential energy, which suggests a different source of uncertainty generation in the ocean than in the atmosphere mainly associated with changes in the density field.

  6. The Influence of Runoff and Surface Hydrology on Titan's Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faulk, S.; Lora, J. M.; Mitchell, J.; Moon, S.

    2017-12-01

    Titan's surface liquid distribution has been shown by general circulation models (GCMs) to greatly influence the hydrological cycle, producing characteristic weather and seasonal climate patterns. Simulations from the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM) with imposed polar methane "wetlands" reservoirs realistically produce observed cloud features and temperature profiles of Titan's atmosphere, whereas "aquaplanet" simulations with a global methane ocean are not as successful. In addition, wetlands simulations, unlike aquaplanet simulations, demonstrate strong correlations between extreme rainfall behavior and observed geomorphic features, indicating the influential role of precipitation in shaping Titan's surface. The wetlands configuration is, in part, motivated by Titan's large-scale topography featuring low-latitude highlands and high-latitude lowlands, with the implication being that methane may concentrate in the high-latitude lowlands by way of runoff and subsurface flow of a global or regional methane table. However, the extent to which topography controls the surface liquid distribution and thus impacts the global hydrological cycle by driving surface and subsurface flow is unclear. Here we present TAM simulations wherein the imposed wetlands reservoirs are replaced by a surface runoff scheme that allows surface liquid to self-consistently redistribute under the influence of topography. We discuss the impact of surface runoff on the surface liquid distribution over seasonal timescales and compare the resulting hydrological cycle to observed cloud and surface features, as well as to the hydrological cycles of the TAM wetlands and aquaplanet simulations. While still idealized, this more realistic representation of Titan's hydrology provides new insight into the complex interaction between Titan's atmosphere and surface, demonstrates the influence of surface runoff on Titan's global climate, and lays the groundwork for further surface hydrology developments in Titan

  7. A new CM SAF Solar Surface Radiation Climate Data Set derived from Meteosat Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trentmann, J.; Mueller, R. W.; Pfeifroth, U.; Träger-Chatterjee, C.; Cremer, R.

    2014-12-01

    The incoming surface solar radiation has been defined as an essential climate variable by GCOS. It is mandatory to monitor this part of the earth's energy balance, and thus gain insights on the state and variability of the climate system. In addition, data sets of the surface solar radiation have received increased attention over the recent years as an important source of information for the planning of solar energy applications. The EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) is deriving surface solar radiation from geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite instruments. While CM SAF is focusing on the generation of high-quality long-term climate data records, also operationally data is provided in short time latency within 8 weeks. Here we present SARAH (Solar Surface Radiation Dataset - Heliosat), i.e. the new CM SAF Solar Surface Radiation data set based on Meteosat satellite observations. SARAH provides instantaneous, daily- and monthly-averaged data of the effective cloud albedo (CAL), the direct normalized solar radiation (DNI) and the solar irradiance (SIS) from 1983 to 2013 for the full view of the Meteosat satellite (i.e, Europe, Africa, parts of South America, and the Atlantic ocean). The data sets are generated with a high spatial resolution of 0.05 deg allowing for detailed regional studies, and are available in netcdf-format at no cost without restrictions at www.cmsaf.eu. We provide an overview of the data sets, including a validation against reference measurements from the BSRN and GEBA surface station networks.

  8. Modeling large-scale human alteration of land surface hydrology and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Yadu N.; Felfelani, Farshid; Shin, Sanghoon; Yamada, Tomohito J.; Satoh, Yusuke

    2017-12-01

    Rapidly expanding human activities have profoundly affected various biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system over a broad range of scales, and freshwater systems are now amongst the most extensively altered ecosystems. In this study, we examine the human-induced changes in land surface water and energy balances and the associated climate impacts using a coupled hydrological-climate model framework which also simulates the impacts of human activities on the water cycle. We present three sets of analyses using the results from two model versions—one with and the other without considering human activities; both versions are run in offline and coupled mode resulting in a series of four experiments in total. First, we examine climate and human-induced changes in regional water balance focusing on the widely debated issue of the desiccation of the Aral Sea in central Asia. Then, we discuss the changes in surface temperature as a result of changes in land surface energy balance due to irrigation over global and regional scales. Finally, we examine the global and regional climate impacts of increased atmospheric water vapor content due to irrigation. Results indicate that the direct anthropogenic alteration of river flow in the Aral Sea basin resulted in the loss of 510 km3 of water during the latter half of the twentieth century which explains about half of the total loss of water from the sea. Results of irrigation-induced changes in surface energy balance suggest a significant surface cooling of up to 3.3 K over 1° grids in highly irrigated areas but a negligible change in land surface temperature when averaged over sufficiently large global regions. Results from the coupled model indicate a substantial change in 2 m air temperature and outgoing longwave radiation due to irrigation, highlighting the non-local (regional and global) implications of irrigation. These results provide important insights on the direct human alteration of land surface

  9. Chiral anomalies and differential geometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zumino, B.

    1983-10-01

    Some properties of chiral anomalies are described from a geometric point of view. Topics include chiral anomalies and differential forms, transformation properties of the anomalies, identification and use of the anomalies, and normalization of the anomalies. 22 references

  10. Surface CO2 Exchange Dynamics across a Climatic Gradient in McKenzie Valley: Effect of Landforms, Climate and Permafrost

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Startsev

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Northern regions are experiencing considerable climate change affecting the state of permafrost, peat accumulation rates, and the large pool of carbon (C stored in soil, thereby emphasizing the importance of monitoring surface C fluxes in different landform sites along a climate gradient. We studied surface net C exchange (NCE and ecosystem respiration (ER across different landforms (upland, peat plateau, collapse scar in mid-boreal to high subarctic ecoregions in the Mackenzie Valley of northwestern Canada for three years. NCE and ER were measured using automatic CO2 chambers (ADC, Bioscientific LTD., Herts, England, and soil respiration (SR was measured with solid state infrared CO2 sensors (Carbocaps, Vaisala, Vantaa, Finland using the concentration gradient technique. Both NCE and ER were primarily controlled by soil temperature in the upper horizons. In upland forest locations, ER varied from 583 to 214 g C·m−2·year−1 from mid-boreal to high subarctic zones, respectively. For the bog and peat plateau areas, ER was less than half that at the upland locations. Of SR, nearly 75% was generated in the upper 5 cm layer composed of live bryophytes and actively decomposing fibric material. Our results suggest that for the upland and bog locations, ER significantly exceeded NCE. Bryophyte NCE was greatest in continuously waterlogged collapsed areas and was negligible in other locations. Overall, upland forest sites were sources of CO2 (from 64 g·C·m−2·year−1 in the high subarctic to 588 g C·m−2·year−1 in mid-boreal zone; collapsed areas were sinks of C, especially in high subarctic (from 27 g·C·m−2 year−1 in mid-boreal to 86 g·C·m−2·year−1 in high subarctic and peat plateaus were minor sources (from 153 g·C·m−2·year−1 in mid-boreal to 6 g·C·m−2·year−1 in high subarctic. The results are important in understanding how different landforms are responding to climate change and would be useful in modeling the

  11. Spring Soil Temperature Anomalies over Tibetan Plateau and Summer Droughts/Floods in East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Y.; Li, W.; LI, Q.; Diallo, I.; Chu, P. C.; Guo, W.; Fu, C.

    2017-12-01

    Recurrent extreme climate events, such as droughts and floods, are important features of the climate of East Asia, especially over the Yangtze River basin. Many studies have attributed these episodes to variability and anomaly of global sea surface temperatures (SST) anomaly. In addition, snow in the Tibetan Plateau has also been considered as one of the factors affecting the Asian monsoon variability. However, studies have consistently shown that SST along is unable to explain the extreme climate events fully and snow has difficulty to use as a predictor. Remote effects of observed large-scale land surface temperature (LST) and subsurface temperature variability in Tibetan Plateau (TP) on East Asian regional droughts/floods, however, have been largely ignored. We conjecture that a temporally filtered response to snow anomalies may be preserved in the LST anomaly. In this study, evidence from climate observations and model simulations addresses the LST/SUBT effects. The Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) of observational data identifies that a pronounce spring LST anomaly pattern over TP is closely associated with precipitation anomalies in East Asia with a dipole pattern, i.e., negative/positive TP spring LST anomaly is associated with the summer drought/flood over the region south of the Yangtze River and wet/dry conditions to the north of the Yangtze River. Climate models were used to demonstrate a causal relationship between spring cold LST anomaly in the TP and the severe 2003 drought over the southern part of the Yangtze River in eastern Asia. This severe drought resulted in 100 x 106 kg crop yield losses and an economic loss of 5.8 billion Chinese Yuan. The modeling study suggests that the LST effect produced about 58% of observed precipitation deficit; while the SST effect produced about 32% of the drought conditions. Meanwhile, the LST and SST effects also simulated the observed flood over to the north of the Yangtze River. This suggests that inclusion of

  12. Soil surface roughness decay in contrasting climates, tillage types and management systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal Vázquez, Eva; Bertol, Ildegardis; Tondello Barbosa, Fabricio; Paz-Ferreiro, Jorge

    2014-05-01

    Soil surface roughness describes the variations in the elevation of the soil surface. Such variations define the soil surface microrelief, which is characterized by a high spatial variability. Soil surface roughness is a property affecting many processes such as depression storage, infiltration, sediment generation, storage and transport and runoff routing. Therefore the soil surface microrelief is a key element in hydrology and soil erosion processes at different spatial scales as for example at the plot, field or catchment scale. In agricultural land soil surface roughness is mainly created by tillage operations, which promote to different extent the formation of microdepressions and microelevations and increase infiltration and temporal retention of water. The decay of soil surface roughness has been demonstrated to be mainly driven by rain height and rain intensity, and to depend also on runoff, aggregate stability, soil reface porosity and soil surface density. Soil roughness formation and decay may be also influenced by antecedent soil moisture (either before tillage or rain), quantity and type of plant residues over the soil surface and soil composition. Characterization of the rate and intensity of soil surface roughness decay provides valuable information about the degradation of the upper most soil surface layer before soil erosion has been initiated or at the very beginning of soil runoff and erosion processes. We analyzed the rate of decay of soil surface roughness from several experiments conducted in two regions under temperate and subtropical climate and with contrasting land use systems. The data sets studied were obtained both under natural and simulated rainfall for various soil tillage and management types. Soil surface roughness decay was characterized bay several parameters, including classic and single parameters such as the random roughness or the tortuosity and parameters based on advanced geostatistical methods or on the fractal theory. Our

  13. Untreated runoff quality from roof and road surfaces in a low intensity rainfall climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charters, Frances J; Cochrane, Thomas A; O'Sullivan, Aisling D

    2016-04-15

    Sediment and heavy metals in stormwater runoff are key pollutants of urban waterways, and their presence in stormwater is driven by climatic factors such as rainfall intensity. This study describes the total suspended solids (TSS) and heavy metal concentrations found in runoff from four different urban surfaces within a residential/institutional catchment, in a climate where rainfall is typically of low intensity (runoff quality from a compilation of international studies. The road runoff had the highest TSS concentrations, while copper and galvanized roof runoff had the highest copper and zinc concentrations, respectively. Pollutant concentrations were found to be significantly different between surfaces; quantification and prediction of pollutant contributions from urban surfaces should thus take account of the different surface materials, instead of being aggregated into more generalized categories such as land use. The TSS and heavy metal concentrations were found to be at the low to medium end of ranges observed internationally, except for total copper and zinc concentrations generated by dissolution of copper and galvanized roofing material respectively; these concentrations were at least as high as those reported internationally. TSS wash-off from the roofs was seen to be a source-limited process, where all available TSS is washed off during the rain event despite the low intensity rainfall, whereas both road TSS and heavy metals wash-off from roof and road surfaces appeared to all be transport-limited and therefore some carryover of pollutants occurs between rain events. A first flush effect was seen from most surfaces for TSS, but not for heavy metals. This study demonstrates that in low intensity rainfall climates, quantification of untreated runoff quality from key individual surface types in a catchment are needed to enable development of targeted and appropriately sized stormwater treatment systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. The response of surface ozone to climate change over the Eastern United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. N. Racherla

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the response of surface ozone (O3 to future climate change in the eastern United States by performing simulations corresponding to present (1990s and future (2050s climates using an integrated model of global climate, tropospheric gas-phase chemistry, and aerosols. A future climate has been imposed using ocean boundary conditions corresponding to the IPCC SRES A2 scenario for the 2050s decade. Present-day anthropogenic emissions and CO2/CH4 mixing ratios have been used in both simulations while climate-sensitive emissions were allowed to vary with the simulated climate. The severity and frequency of O3 episodes in the eastern U.S. increased due to future climate change, primarily as a result of increased O3 chemical production. The 95th percentile O3 mixing ratio increased by 5 ppbv and the largest frequency increase occured in the 80–90 ppbv range; the US EPA's current 8-h ozone primary standard is 80 ppbv. The increased O3 chemical production is due to increases in: 1 natural isoprene emissions; 2 hydroperoxy radical concentrations resulting from increased water vapor concentrations; and, 3 NOx concentrations resulting from reduced PAN. The most substantial and statistically significant (p<0.05 increases in episode frequency occurred over the southeast and midatlantic U.S., largely as a result of 20% higher annual-average natural isoprene emissions. These results suggest a lengthening of the O3 season over the eastern U.S. in a future climate to include late spring and early fall months. Increased chemical production and shorter average lifetime are two consistent features of the seasonal response of surface O3, with increased dry deposition loss rates contributing most to the reduced lifetime in all seasons except summer. Significant interannual variability is observed in the frequency of O3

  15. Long-Term Variability of Surface Albedo and Its Correlation with Climatic Variables over Antarctica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minji Seo

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The cryosphere is an essential part of the earth system for understanding climate change. Components of the cryosphere, such as ice sheets and sea ice, are generally decreasing over time. However, previous studies have indicated differing trends between the Antarctic and the Arctic. The South Pole also shows internal differences in trends. These phenomena indicate the importance of continuous observation of the Polar Regions. Albedo is a main indicator for analyzing Antarctic climate change and is an important variable with regard to the radiation budget because it can provide positive feedback on polar warming and is related to net radiation and atmospheric heating in the mainly snow- and ice-covered Antarctic. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed long-term temporal and spatial variability of albedo and investigated the interrelationships between albedo and climatic variables over Antarctica. We used broadband surface albedo data from the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring and data for several climatic variables such as temperature and Antarctic oscillation index (AAO during the period of 1983 to 2009. Time series analysis and correlation analysis were performed through linear regression using albedo and climatic variables. The results of this research indicated that albedo shows two trends, west trend and an east trend, over Antarctica. Most of the western side of Antarctica showed a negative trend of albedo (about −0.0007 to −0.0015 year−1, but the other side showed a positive trend (about 0.0006 year−1. In addition, albedo and surface temperature had a negative correlation, but this relationship was weaker in west Antarctica than in east Antarctica. The correlation between albedo and AAO revealed different relationships in the two regions; west Antarctica had a negative correlation and east Antarctica showed a positive correlation. In addition, the correlation between albedo and AAO was weaker in the west. This

  16. Climate and surface water hydrology baseline data for Aurora Mine EIA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-12-31

    A climate and hydrology database was assembled to describe the existing climatic and surface water hydrological characteristics of the proposed Aurora Mine area in Leases 10, 12, 13, 31, and 34 east of the Athabasca River near Fort McKay. The study was based upon data available from the regional hydrometeorological monitoring network operated by the Governments of Canada and Alberta. The study also included the installation and monitoring of one climate station and five streamflow gauging stations on small watersheds in the area. The representative climatic and hydrologic characteristics of the area, including precipitation, evaporation, evapotranspiration, temperature and wind, were determined. Streamflow characteristics such as flood frequencies, low flow frequencies, water yield and flow durations representative of large gauged watersheds within the study area were also determined. The results offer a good basis for preliminary design of surface water management systems. It was recommended that the monitoring program should be continued to monitor potential environmental impacts of proposed development activities. 9 refs., 29 tabs., 32 figs.

  17. Forecasting experiments of a dynamical-statistical model of the sea surface temperature anomaly field based on the improved self-memorization principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Mei; Chen, Xi; Zhang, Ren; Wang, Dong; Shen, Shuanghe; Singh, Vijay P.

    2018-04-01

    With the objective of tackling the problem of inaccurate long-term El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts, this paper develops a new dynamical-statistical forecast model of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) field. To avoid single initial prediction values, a self-memorization principle is introduced to improve the dynamical reconstruction model, thus making the model more appropriate for describing such chaotic systems as ENSO events. The improved dynamical-statistical model of the SSTA field is used to predict SSTA in the equatorial eastern Pacific and during El Niño and La Niña events. The long-term step-by-step forecast results and cross-validated retroactive hindcast results of time series T1 and T2 are found to be satisfactory, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of approximately 0.80 and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of less than 15 %. The corresponding forecast SSTA field is accurate in that not only is the forecast shape similar to the actual field but also the contour lines are essentially the same. This model can also be used to forecast the ENSO index. The temporal correlation coefficient is 0.8062, and the MAPE value of 19.55 % is small. The difference between forecast results in spring and those in autumn is not high, indicating that the improved model can overcome the spring predictability barrier to some extent. Compared with six mature models published previously, the present model has an advantage in prediction precision and length, and is a novel exploration of the ENSO forecast method.

  18. Climate change and water table fluctuation: Implications for raised bog surface variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taminskas, Julius; Linkevičienė, Rita; Šimanauskienė, Rasa; Jukna, Laurynas; Kibirkštis, Gintautas; Tamkevičiūtė, Marija

    2018-03-01

    Cyclic peatland surface variability is influenced by hydrological conditions that highly depend on climate and/or anthropogenic activities. A low water level leads to a decrease of peatland surface and an increase of C emissions into the atmosphere, whereas a high water level leads to an increase of peatland surface and carbon sequestration in peatlands. The main aim of this article is to evaluate the influence of hydrometeorological conditions toward the peatland surface and its feedback toward the water regime. A regional survey of the raised bog water table fluctuation and surface variability was made in one of the largest peatlands in Lithuania. Two appropriate indicators for different peatland surface variability periods (increase and decrease) were detected. The first one is an 200 mm y- 1 average net rainfall over a three-year range. The second one is an average annual water depth of 25-30 cm. The application of these indicators enabled the reconstruction of Čepkeliai peatland surface variability during a 100 year period. Processes of peatland surface variability differ in time and in separate parts of peatland. Therefore, internal subbasins in peatland are formed. Subbasins involve autogenic processes that can later affect their internal hydrology, nutrient status, and vegetation succession. Internal hydrological conditions, surface fluctuation, and vegetation succession in peatland subbasins should be taken into account during evaluation of their state, nature management projects, and other peatland research works.

  19. Arctic Storms and Their Influence on Surface Climate in the Chukchi-Beaufort Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Y.; Zhang, X.; Rinke, A.; Zhang, J.

    2017-12-01

    Increases in the frequency and intensity of Arctic storms and resulting weather hazards may endanger the offshore environment, coastal community, and energy infrastructure in the Arctic as sea ice retreats. Advancing ability to identify fine-scale variations in surface climate produced by progressively stronger storm would be extremely helpful to resources management and sustainable development for coastal community. In this study, we analyzed the storms and their impacts on surface climate over the Beaufort-Chukchi seas by employing the date sets from both the hindcast simulations of the coupled Arctic regional climate model HIRHAM-NAOSIM and the recently developed Chukchi-Beaufort High-resolution Atmospheric Reanalysis (CBHAR). Based on the characteristics of spatial pattern and temporal variability of the Arctic storm activity, we categorized storms to three groups with their different origins: the East Siberia Sea, Alaska and the central Arctic Ocean. The storms originating from the central Arctic Ocean have the strongest intensity in winter with relatively less storm number. Storms traveling from Alaska to the Beaufort Sea most frequently occurred in autumn with weaker intensity. A large portion of storms originated from the East Siberia Sea region in summer. Further statistical analysis suggests that increase in surface air temperature and wind speed could be attributed to the increased frequency of storm occurrence in autumn (September to November) along the continental shelf in the Beaufort Sea.

  20. Climate forcing and response to idealized changes in surface latent and sensible heat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ban-Weiss, George A; Cao Long; Pongratz, Julia; Caldeira, Ken; Bala, Govindasamy

    2011-01-01

    Land use and land cover changes affect the partitioning of latent and sensible heat, which impacts the broader climate system. Increased latent heat flux to the atmosphere has a local cooling influence known as 'evaporative cooling', but this energy will be released back to the atmosphere wherever the water condenses. However, the extent to which local evaporative cooling provides a global cooling influence has not been well characterized. Here, we perform a highly idealized set of climate model simulations aimed at understanding the effects that changes in the balance between surface sensible and latent heating have on the global climate system. We find that globally adding a uniform 1 W m -2 source of latent heat flux along with a uniform 1 W m -2 sink of sensible heat leads to a decrease in global mean surface air temperature of 0.54 ± 0.04 K. This occurs largely as a consequence of planetary albedo increases associated with an increase in low elevation cloudiness caused by increased evaporation. Thus, our model results indicate that, on average, when latent heating replaces sensible heating, global, and not merely local, surface temperatures decrease.

  1. Uncertainty in Land Cover observations and its impact on near surface climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgievski, Goran; Hagemann, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Land Cover (LC) and its bio-geo-physical feedbacks are important for the understanding of climate and its vulnerability to changes on the surface of the Earth. Recently ESA has published a new LC map derived by combining remotely sensed surface reflectance and ground-truth observations. For each grid-box at 300m resolution, an estimate of confidence is provided. This LC data set can be used in climate modelling to derive land surface boundary parameters for the respective Land Surface Model (LSM). However, the ESA LC classes are not directly suitable for LSMs, therefore they need to be converted into the model specific surface presentations. Due to different design and processes implemented in various climate models they might differ in the treatment of artificial, water bodies, ice, bare or vegetated surfaces. Nevertheless, usually vegetation distribution in models is presented by means of plant functional types (PFT), which is a classification system used to simplify vegetation representation and group different vegetation types according to their biophysical characteristics. The method of LC conversion into PFT is also called "cross-walking" (CW) procedure. The CW procedure is another source of uncertainty, since it depends on model design and processes implemented and resolved by LSMs. These two sources of uncertainty, (i) due to surface reflectance conversion into LC classes, (ii) due to CW procedure, have been studied by Hartley et al (2016) to investigate their impact on LSM state variables (albedo, evapotranspiration (ET) and primary productivity) by using three standalone LSMs. The present study is a follow up to that work and aims at quantifying the impact of these two uncertainties on climate simulations performed with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) using prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice. The main focus is on the terrestrial water cycle, but the impacts on surface albedo, wind patterns, 2m temperatures

  2. Description of climate, surface hydrology, and near-surface hydrogeology. Simpevarp 1.2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Werner, Kent; Bosson, Emma; Berglund, Sten

    2005-04-01

    This report presents and evaluates the site investigations and primary data on meteorology, surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology that are available in the Simpevarp 1.2 'data freeze'. The main objective is to update the previous Simpevarp 1.1 description of the meteorological, surface hydrological and near-surface hydrogeological conditions in the Simpevarp area. Based on the Simpevarp 1.2 dataset, an updated conceptual and descriptive model of the surface and near-surface water flow conditions in the Simpevarp area is presented. In cases where site investigation data are not yet available, regional and/or generic data are used as input to the modelling. GIS- and process-based tools, used for initial quantitative flow modelling, are also presented. The objectives of this initial quantitative modelling are to illustrate, quantify and support the site descriptive model, and also to produce relevant input data to the ecological systems modelling within the SKB SurfaceNet framework.For the Simpevarp 1.2 model, the relevant site investigations include the establishment of one local meteorological station and surface-hydrological stations for discharge measurements, delineation and description of catchment areas, manual discharge measurements in water courses, slug tests in groundwater monitoring wells, and manual groundwater level measurements. In addition, other investigations have also contributed to the modelling, providing data on geometry (including topography), data from surface-based geological investigations and boreholes in Quaternary deposits, and data on the hydrogeological properties of the bedrock. The conceptual and descriptive modelling includes an identification and basic description of type areas, domains and interfaces between domains within the model area. The surface and near-surface flow system is described, including the assignment of hydrogeological properties to HSDs (Hydraulic Soil Domains) of Quaternary deposits based on a

  3. Description of climate, surface hydrology, and near-surface hydrogeology. Simpevarp 1.2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werner, Kent [SWECO VIAK AB/Golder Associates AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Bosson, Emma; Berglund, Sten [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

    2005-04-01

    This report presents and evaluates the site investigations and primary data on meteorology, surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology that are available in the Simpevarp 1.2 'data freeze'. The main objective is to update the previous Simpevarp 1.1 description of the meteorological, surface hydrological and near-surface hydrogeological conditions in the Simpevarp area. Based on the Simpevarp 1.2 dataset, an updated conceptual and descriptive model of the surface and near-surface water flow conditions in the Simpevarp area is presented. In cases where site investigation data are not yet available, regional and/or generic data are used as input to the modelling. GIS- and process-based tools, used for initial quantitative flow modelling, are also presented. The objectives of this initial quantitative modelling are to illustrate, quantify and support the site descriptive model, and also to produce relevant input data to the ecological systems modelling within the SKB SurfaceNet framework.For the Simpevarp 1.2 model, the relevant site investigations include the establishment of one local meteorological station and surface-hydrological stations for discharge measurements, delineation and description of catchment areas, manual discharge measurements in water courses, slug tests in groundwater monitoring wells, and manual groundwater level measurements. In addition, other investigations have also contributed to the modelling, providing data on geometry (including topography), data from surface-based geological investigations and boreholes in Quaternary deposits, and data on the hydrogeological properties of the bedrock. The conceptual and descriptive modelling includes an identification and basic description of type areas, domains and interfaces between domains within the model area. The surface and near-surface flow system is described, including the assignment of hydrogeological properties to HSDs (Hydraulic Soil Domains) of Quaternary deposits based on a

  4. Decadal prediction skill in the ocean with surface nudging in the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mignot, Juliette; García-Serrano, Javier; Swingedouw, Didier; Germe, Agathe; Nguyen, Sébastien; Ortega, Pablo; Guilyardi, Eric; Ray, Sulagna

    2016-08-01

    Two decadal prediction ensembles, based on the same climate model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) and the same surface nudging initialization strategy are analyzed and compared with a focus on upper-ocean variables in different regions of the globe. One ensemble consists of 3-member hindcasts launched every year since 1961 while the other ensemble benefits from 9 members but with start dates only every 5 years. Analysis includes anomaly correlation coefficients and root mean square errors computed against several reanalysis and gridded observational fields, as well as against the nudged simulation used to produce the hindcasts initial conditions. The last skill measure gives an upper limit of the predictability horizon one can expect in the forecast system, while the comparison with different datasets highlights uncertainty when assessing the actual skill. Results provide a potential prediction skill (verification against the nudged simulation) beyond the linear trend of the order of 10 years ahead at the global scale, but essentially associated with non-linear radiative forcings, in particular from volcanoes. At regional scale, we obtain 1 year in the tropical band, 10 years at midlatitudes in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and 5 years at tropical latitudes in the North Atlantic, for both sea surface temperature (SST) and upper-ocean heat content. Actual prediction skill (verified against observational or reanalysis data) is overall more limited and less robust. Even so, large actual skill is found in the extratropical North Atlantic for SST and in the tropical to subtropical North Pacific for upper-ocean heat content. Results are analyzed with respect to the specific dynamics of the model and the way it is influenced by the nudging. The interplay between initialization and internal modes of variability is also analyzed for sea surface salinity. The study illustrates the importance of two key ingredients both necessary for the success of future coordinated decadal

  5. Three-dimensional visualization and analysis of a dual-disk resonator with dielectric misalignment and surface anomaly using edge finite elements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villalva, Gustavo Jose

    because of imperfections in the manufacturing process. The first, considered dielectric properties not aligned with the model axis. And, the second inserted a surface variation on the crystal. Numerically, the general decrease in mode frequencies due to misalignment and overall increase due to a surface anomaly were graphed. Visually, the resulting deformation of electromagnetic mode structures with a high energy concentration in the altered material were shown. Those not visibly affected were modes with less energy in the modified material. An expected effect on their quality factors was given. The research presented provides illustrative scientific understanding using models that are more realistic. Moreover, it aids in resonator design by predicting electromagnetic behavior due to media imperfections.

  6. Surface area changes of Himalayan ponds as a proxy of hydrological climate-driven fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salerno, Franco; Thakuri, Sudeep; Guyennon, Nicolas; Viviano, Gaetano; Tartari, Gianni

    2016-04-01

    The meteorological measurements at high-elevations of the Himalayan range are scarce due to the harsh conditions of these environments which limit the suitable maintenance of weather stations. As a consequence, the meager knowledge on how the climate is changed in the last decades at Himalayan high-elevations sets a serious limit upon the interpretation of relationships between causes and recent observed effects on the cryosphere. Although the glaciers masses reduction in Himalaya is currently sufficiently well described, how changes in climate drivers (precipitation and temperature) have influenced the melting and shrinkage processes are less clear. Consequently, the uncertainty related to the recent past amplifies when future forecasts are done, both for climate and impacts. In this context, a substantial body of research has already demonstrated the high sensitivity of lakes and ponds to climate. Some climate-related signals are highly visible and easily measurable in lakes. For example, climate-driven fluctuations in lake surface area have been observed in many remote sites. On interior Tibetan Plateau the lake growth since the late 1990s is mainly attributed to increased regional precipitation and weakened evaporation. Differently, other authors attribute at the observed increases of lake surfaces at the enhanced glacier melting. In our opinion these divergences found in literature are due to the type of glacial lakes considered in the study and in particular their relationship with glaciers. In general, in Himalaya three types of glacial lakes can be distinguished: (i) lakes that are not directly connected with glaciers, but that may have a glacier located in their basin (unconnected glacial lakes); (ii) supraglacial lakes, which develop on the surface of the glacier downstream; or (iii) proglacial lakes, which are moraine-dammed lakes that are in contact with the glacier front. Some of these lakes store large quantities of water and are susceptible to GLOFs

  7. Mesoscale convective system surface pressure anomalies responsible for meteotsunamis along the U.S. East Coast on June 13th, 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wertman, Christina A; Yablonsky, Richard M; Shen, Yang; Merrill, John; Kincaid, Christopher R; Pockalny, Robert A

    2014-11-25

    Two destructive high-frequency sea level oscillation events occurred on June 13th, 2013 along the U.S. East Coast. Seafloor processes can be dismissed as the sources, as no concurrent offshore earthquakes or landslides were detected. Here, we present evidence that these tsunami-like events were generated by atmospheric mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) propagating from inland to offshore. The USArray Transportable Array inland and NOAA tide gauges along the coast recorded the pressure anomalies associated with the MCSs. Once offshore, the pressure anomalies generated shallow water waves, which were amplified by the resonance between the water column and atmospheric forcing. Analysis of the tidal data reveals that these waves reflected off the continental shelf break and reached the coast, where bathymetry and coastal geometry contributed to their hazard potential. This study demonstrates that monitoring MCS pressure anomalies in the interior of the U.S. provides important observations for early warnings of MCS-generated tsunamis.

  8. Impact of Future Emissions and Climate Change on Surface Ozone over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, C. T.; Westervelt, D. M.; Fiore, A. M.; Rieder, H. E.; Kinney, P.; Wang, S.; Correa, G. J. P.

    2017-12-01

    China's immense ambient air pollution problem and world-leading greenhouse gas emissions place it at the forefront of global efforts to address these related environmental concerns. Here, we analyze the impact of ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) future emissions scenarios representative of current legislation (CLE) and maximum technically feasible emissions reductions (MFR) on surface ozone (O3) concentrations over China in the 2030s and 2050s, in the context of a changing climate. We use a suite of simulations performed with the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's AM3 global chemistry-climate model. To estimate the impact of climate change in isolation on Chinese air quality, we hold emissions of air pollutants including O3 precursors fixed at 2015 levels but allow climate (global sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover) to change according to decadal averages for the years 2026-2035 and 2046-2055 from a three-member ensemble of GFDL-CM3 simulations under the RCP8.5 high warming scenario. Evaluation of the present-day simulation (2015 CLE) with observations from 1497 chiefly urban air quality monitoring stations shows that simulated surface O3 is positively biased by 26 ppb on average over the domain of China. Previous studies, however, have shown that the modeled ozone response to changes in NOx emissions over the Eastern United States mirrors the magnitude and structure of observed changes in maximum daily average 8-hour (MDA8) O3 distributions. Therefore, we use the model's simulated changes for the 2030s and 2050s to project changes in policy-relevant MDA8 O3 concentrations. We find an overall increase in MDA8 O3 for CLE scenarios in which emissions of NOx precursors are projected to increase, and under MFR scenarios, an overall decrease, with the highest changes occurring in summertime for both 2030 and 2050 MFR. Under climate change alone, the model simulates a mean summertime decrease of 1.3 ppb

  9. A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L; Ting, M; Kushner, P J

    2017-03-21

    A key determinant of winter weather and climate in Europe and North America is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Atlantic domain. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the surface climate in both Europe and North America is reflected largely in how accurately models can predict the NAO. Most dynamical models, however, have limited skill in seasonal forecasts of the winter NAO. A new empirical model is proposed for the seasonal forecast of the winter NAO that exhibits higher skill than current dynamical models. The empirical model provides robust and skilful prediction of the December-January-February (DJF) mean NAO index using a multiple linear regression (MLR) technique with autumn conditions of sea-ice concentration, stratospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperature. The predictability is, for the most part, derived from the relatively long persistence of sea ice in the autumn. The lower stratospheric circulation and sea-surface temperature appear to play more indirect roles through a series of feedbacks among systems driving NAO evolution. This MLR model also provides skilful seasonal outlooks of winter surface temperature and precipitation over many regions of Eurasia and eastern North America.

  10. Tracheobronchial Branching Anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Min Ji; Kim, Young Tong; Jou, Sung Shick; Park, A Young

    2010-01-01

    There are various congenital anomalies with respect to the number, length, diameter, and location of tracheobronchial branching patterns. The tracheobronchial anomalies are classified into two groups. The first one, anomalies of division, includes tracheal bronchus, cardiac bronchus, tracheal diverticulum, pulmonary isomerism, and minor variations. The second one, dysmorphic lung, includes lung agenesis-hypoplasia complex and lobar agenesis-aplasia complex

  11. Tracheobronchial Branching Anomalies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Min Ji; Kim, Young Tong; Jou, Sung Shick [Soonchunhyang University, Cheonan Hospital, Cheonan (Korea, Republic of); Park, A Young [Soonchunhyang University College of Medicine, Asan (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-04-15

    There are various congenital anomalies with respect to the number, length, diameter, and location of tracheobronchial branching patterns. The tracheobronchial anomalies are classified into two groups. The first one, anomalies of division, includes tracheal bronchus, cardiac bronchus, tracheal diverticulum, pulmonary isomerism, and minor variations. The second one, dysmorphic lung, includes lung agenesis-hypoplasia complex and lobar agenesis-aplasia complex

  12. A virtual climate library of surface temperature over North America for 1979–2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kravtsov, Sergey; Roebber, Paul; Brazauskas, Vytaras

    2017-01-01

    The most comprehensive continuous-coverage modern climatic data sets, known as reanalyses, come from combining state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with diverse available observations. These reanalysis products estimate the path of climate evolution that actually happened, and their use in a probabilistic context—for example, to document trends in extreme events in response to climate change—is, therefore, limited. Free runs of NWP models without data assimilation can in principle be used for the latter purpose, but such simulations are computationally expensive and are prone to systematic biases. Here we produce a high-resolution, 100-member ensemble simulation of surface atmospheric temperature over North America for the 1979–2015 period using a comprehensive spatially extended non-stationary statistical model derived from the data based on the North American Regional Reanalysis. The surrogate climate realizations generated by this model are independent from, yet nearly statistically congruent with reality. This data set provides unique opportunities for the analysis of weather-related risk, with applications in agriculture, energy development, and protection of human life. PMID:29039842

  13. A virtual climate library of surface temperature over North America for 1979-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kravtsov, Sergey; Roebber, Paul; Brazauskas, Vytaras

    2017-10-01

    The most comprehensive continuous-coverage modern climatic data sets, known as reanalyses, come from combining state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with diverse available observations. These reanalysis products estimate the path of climate evolution that actually happened, and their use in a probabilistic context—for example, to document trends in extreme events in response to climate change—is, therefore, limited. Free runs of NWP models without data assimilation can in principle be used for the latter purpose, but such simulations are computationally expensive and are prone to systematic biases. Here we produce a high-resolution, 100-member ensemble simulation of surface atmospheric temperature over North America for the 1979-2015 period using a comprehensive spatially extended non-stationary statistical model derived from the data based on the North American Regional Reanalysis. The surrogate climate realizations generated by this model are independent from, yet nearly statistically congruent with reality. This data set provides unique opportunities for the analysis of weather-related risk, with applications in agriculture, energy development, and protection of human life.

  14. The 2014-2015 Warming Anomaly in the Southern California Current System: Glider Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaba, K. D.; Rudnick, D. L.

    2016-02-01

    During 2014-2015, basin-wide patterns of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies affected surface waters throughout the North Pacific Ocean. We present regional physical and biological effects of the warming, as observed by our autonomous underwater gliders in the southern California Current System (SCCS). Established in 2006, the California Glider Network provides sustained subsurface observations for monitoring the coastal effects of large-scale climate variability. Along repeat sections that extend to 350-500 km in offshore distance and 500 m in depth, Spray gliders have continuously occupied CalCOFI lines 66.7, 80, and 90 for nearly nine years. Following a sawtooth trajectory, the gliders complete each dive in approximately 3 hours and over 3 km. Measured variables include pressure, temperature, salinity, chlorophyll fluorescence, and velocity. For each of the three lines, a comprehensive climatology has been constructed from the multiyear timeseries. The ongoing surface-intensified warming anomaly, which began locally in early 2014 and persists through present, is unprecedented in the glider climatology. Reaching up to 5°C, positive temperature anomalies have been generally confined to the upper 50 m and persistent for over 20 months. The timing of the warming was in phase along each glider line but out of phase with equatorial SST anomalies, suggesting a decoupling of tropical and mid-latitude dynamics. Concurrent physical oceanographic anomalies included a depressed thermocline and high stratification. An induced biological response was apparent in the deepening of the subsurface chlorophyll fluorescence maximum. Ancillary atmospheric data from the NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) model indicate that a combination of surface forcing anomalies, namely high downward heat flux and weak wind stress magnitude, caused the unusual warm, downwelling conditions. With a strong El Niño event in the forecast for winter 2015-2016, our sustained glider network will

  15. Land-Surface Characteristics and Climate in West Africa: Models’ Biases and Impacts of Historical Anthropogenically-Induced Deforestation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Souleymane Sy

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Land Use Land-Cover Change (LULCC, such as deforestation, affects the climate system and land-atmosphere interactions. Using simulations carried out within the LUCID (Land Use and Climate, IDentification of robust Impacts project framework, we first quantify the role of historical land-cover change induced by human activities on surface climate in West Africa. Focusing on two contrasted African regions, we find that climate responses of land-use changes are small but they are still statistically significant. In Western Sahel, a statistically significant near-surface atmospheric cooling and a decrease in water recycling are simulated in summer in response to LULCC. Over the Guinean zone, models simulate a significant decrease in precipitation and water recycling in autumn in response to LULCC. This signal is comparable in magnitude with the effect induced by the increase in greenhouse gases. Simulated climate changes due to historical LULCC could however be underestimated because: (i the prescribed LULCC can be underestimated in those regions; (ii the climate models underestimate the coupling strength between West African surface climate and leaf area index (LAI and (iii the lack of interactive LAI in some models. Finally, our study reveals indirect atmospheric processes triggered by LULCC. Over the Western Sahel, models reveal that a significant decrease in solar reflection tend to cool down the surface and thus counteract the atmospheric feedback. Conversely, over the Guinea zone, models reveal that the indirect atmospheric processes and turbulent heat fluxes dominate the climatic responses over the direct effects of LULCC.

  16. Species-rich semi-natural grasslands have a higher resistance but a lower resilience than intensively managed agricultural grasslands in response to climate anomalies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keersmaecker, De Wanda; Rooijen, van Nils; Lhermitte, Stef; Tits, Laurent; Schaminée, Joop; Coppin, Pol; Honnay, Olivier; Somers, Ben

    2016-01-01

    The stable delivery of ecosystem services provided by grasslands is strongly dependent on the stability of grassland ecosystem functions such as biomass production. Biomass production is in turn strongly affected by the frequency and intensity of climate extremes. The aim of this study is to

  17. Multivariate anomaly detection for Earth observations: a comparison of algorithms and feature extraction techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Flach

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Today, many processes at the Earth's surface are constantly monitored by multiple data streams. These observations have become central to advancing our understanding of vegetation dynamics in response to climate or land use change. Another set of important applications is monitoring effects of extreme climatic events, other disturbances such as fires, or abrupt land transitions. One important methodological question is how to reliably detect anomalies in an automated and generic way within multivariate data streams, which typically vary seasonally and are interconnected across variables. Although many algorithms have been proposed for detecting anomalies in multivariate data, only a few have been investigated in the context of Earth system science applications. In this study, we systematically combine and compare feature extraction and anomaly detection algorithms for detecting anomalous events. Our aim is to identify suitable workflows for automatically detecting anomalous patterns in multivariate Earth system data streams. We rely on artificial data that mimic typical properties and anomalies in multivariate spatiotemporal Earth observations like sudden changes in basic characteristics of time series such as the sample mean, the variance, changes in the cycle amplitude, and trends. This artificial experiment is needed as there is no gold standard for the identification of anomalies in real Earth observations. Our results show that a well-chosen feature extraction step (e.g., subtracting seasonal cycles, or dimensionality reduction is more important than the choice of a particular anomaly detection algorithm. Nevertheless, we identify three detection algorithms (k-nearest neighbors mean distance, kernel density estimation, a recurrence approach and their combinations (ensembles that outperform other multivariate approaches as well as univariate extreme-event detection methods. Our results therefore provide an effective workflow to

  18. ClimoBase: Rouse Canadian Surface Observations of Weather, Climate, and Hydrological Variables, 1984-1998, Version 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ClimoBase is a collection of surface climate measurements collected in Northern Canada by Dr. Wayne Rouse between 1984 and 1998 in three locations: Churchill,...

  19. CLIMATE CHANGE. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karl, Thomas R; Arguez, Anthony; Huang, Boyin; Lawrimore, Jay H; McMahon, James R; Menne, Matthew J; Peterson, Thomas C; Vose, Russell S; Zhang, Huai-Min

    2015-06-26

    Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming "hiatus." Here, we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a "slowdown" in the increase of global surface temperature. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  20. Tropical-extratropical climate interaction as revealed in idealized coupled climate model experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Haijun [Peking University, Department of Atmospheric Science and Laboratory for Severe Storm and Flood Disasters, School of Physics, Beijing (China); Liu, Zhengyu [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research and Department of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison, WI (United States)

    2005-06-01

    Tropical-extratropical climate interactions are studied by idealized experiments with a prescribed 2 C SST anomaly at different latitude bands in a coupled climate model. Instead of focusing on intrinsic climate variability, this work investigates the mean climate adjustment to remote external forcing. The extratropical impact on tropical climate can be as strong as the tropical impact on extratropical climate, with the remote sea surface temperature (SST) response being about half the magnitude of the imposed SST change in the forcing region. The equatorward impact of extratropical climate is accomplished by both the atmospheric bridge and the oceanic tunnel. About two-thirds of the tropical SST change comes from the atmospheric bridge, while the remaining one-third comes from the oceanic tunnel. The equatorial SST increase is first driven by the reduced latent heat flux and the weakened poleward surface Ekman transport, and then enhanced by the decrease in subtropical cells' strength and the equatorward subduction of warm anomalies. In contrast, the poleward impact of tropical climate is accomplished mainly by the atmospheric bridge, which is responsible for extratropical temperature changes in both the surface and subsurface. Sensitivity experiments also show the dominant role of the Southern Hemisphere oceans in the tropical climate change. (orig.)

  1. Climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.

    2005-02-01

    This book starts with a series of about 20 preconceived ideas about climate and climatic change and analyses each of them in the light of the present day knowledge. Using this approach, it makes a status of the reality of the climatic change, of its causes and of the measures to be implemented to limit its impacts and reduce its most harmful consequences. (J.S.)

  2. Effects of climate change on surface-water photochemistry: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Laurentiis, Elisa; Minella, Marco; Maurino, Valter; Minero, Claudio; Vione, Davide

    2014-10-01

    Information concerning the link between surface-water photochemistry and climate is presently very scarce as only a few studies have been dedicated to the subject. On the basis of the limited knowledge that is currently available, the present inferences can be made as follows: (1) Warming can cause enhanced leaching of ionic solutes from the catchments to surface waters, including cations and more biologically labile anions such as sulphate. Preferential sulphate biodegradation followed by removal as organic sulphides in sediment could increase alkalinity, favouring the generation of the carbonate radical, CO3 (·-). However, this phenomenon would be easily offset by fluctuations of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC), which is strongly anticorrelated with CO3 (·-). Therefore, obtaining insight into DOC evolution is a key issue in understanding the link between photochemistry and climate. (2) Climate change could exacerbate water scarcity in the dry season in some regions. Fluctuations in the water column could deeply alter photochemistry that is usually favoured in shallower waters. However, the way water is lost would strongly affect the prevailing photoinduced processes. Water outflow without important changes in solute concentration would mostly favour reactions induced by the hydroxyl and carbonate radicals (·OH and CO3 (·-)). In contrast, evaporative concentration would enhance reactions mediated by singlet oxygen ((1)O2) and by the triplet states of chromophoric dissolved organic matter ((3)CDOM*). (3) In a warmer climate, the summer stratification period of lakes would last longer, thereby enhancing photochemical reactions in the epilimnion but at the same time keeping the hypolimnion water in the dark for longer periods.

  3. Predicting Summer Dryness Under a Warmer Climate: Modeling Land Surface Processes in the Midwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, J. M.; Eltahir, E. A.

    2009-12-01

    One of the most significant impacts of climate change is the potential alteration of local hydrologic cycles over agriculturally productive areas. As the world’s food supply continues to be taxed by its burgeoning population, a greater percentage of arable land will need to be utilized and land currently producing food must become more efficient. This study seeks to quantify the effects of climate change on soil moisture in the American Midwest. A series of 24-year numerical experiments were conducted to assess the ability of Regional Climate Model Version 3 coupled to Integrated Biosphere Simulator (RegCM3-IBIS) and Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme 1e (RegCM3-BATS1e) to simulate the observed hydroclimatology of the midwestern United States. Model results were evaluated using NASA Surface Radiation Budget, NASA Earth Radiation Budget Experiment, Illinois State Water Survey, Climate Research Unit Time Series 2.1, Global Soil Moisture Data Bank, and regional-scale estimations of evapotranspiration. The response of RegCM3-IBIS and RegCM3-BATS1e to a surrogate climate change scenario, a warming of 3oC at the boundaries and doubling of CO2, was explored. Precipitation increased significantly during the spring and summer in both RegCM3-IBIS and RegCM3-BATS1e, leading to additional runoff. In contrast, enhancement of evapotranspiration and shortwave radiation were modest. Soil moisture remained relatively unchanged in RegCM3-IBIS, while RegCM3-BATS1e exhibited some fall and winter wetting.

  4. Modeling Surface Climate in US Cities Using Simple Biosphere Model Sib2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ping; Bounoua, Lahouari; Thome, Kurtis; Wolfe, Robert; Imhoff, Marc

    2015-01-01

    We combine Landsat- and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based products in the Simple Biosphere model (SiB2) to assess the effects of urbanized land on the continental US (CONUS) surface climate. Using National Land Cover Database (NLCD) Impervious Surface Area (ISA), we define more than 300 urban settlements and their surrounding suburban and rural areas over the CONUS. The SiB2 modeled Gross Primary Production (GPP) over the CONUS of 7.10 PgC (1 PgC= 10(exp 15) grams of Carbon) is comparable to the MODIS improved GPP of 6.29 PgC. At state level, SiB2 GPP is highly correlated with MODIS GPP with a correlation coefficient of 0.94. An increasing horizontal GPP gradient is shown from the urban out to the rural area, with, on average, rural areas fixing 30% more GPP than urbans. Cities built in forested biomes have stronger UHI magnitude than those built in short vegetation with low biomass. Mediterranean climate cities have a stronger UHI in wet season than dry season. Our results also show that for urban areas built within forests, 39% of the precipitation is discharged as surface runoff during summer versus 23% in rural areas.

  5. Soil Moisture and Sea Surface Temperatures equally important for Land Climate in the Warm Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, R.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2015-12-01

    Both sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and soil moisture (SM) are important drivers of climate variability over land. In this study we present a comprehensive comparison of SM versus SST impacts on land climate in the warm season. We perform ensemble experiments with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) where we set SM or SSTs to median conditions, respectively, to remove their inter-annual variability, whereby the other component - SST or SM - is still interactively computed. In contrast to earlier experiments performed with prescribed SSTs, our experiments suggest that SM is overall as important as SSTs for land climate, not only in the midlatitudes but also in the tropics and subtropics. Mean temperature and precipitation are reduced by 0.1-0.5 K and 0-0.2 mm, respectively, whereas their variability at different time scales decreases by 10-40% (temperature) and 0-10% (precipitation) when either SM or SSTs are prescribed. Also drought occurrence is affected, with mean changes in the maximum number of cumulative dry days of 0-0.75 days. Both SM and SST-induced changes are strongest for hot temperatures (up to 0.7 K, and 50%), extreme precipitation (up to 0.4 mm, and 20%), and strong droughts (up to 2 days). Local climate changes in response to removed SM variability are controlled - to first order - by the land-atmosphere coupling and the natural SM variability. SST-related changes are partly controlled by the relation of local temperature or precipitation with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Moreover removed SM or SST variabilities both induce remote effects by impacting the atmospheric circulation. Our results are similar for the present day and the end of the century. We investigate the inter-dependency between SM and SST and find a sufficient degree of independence for the purpose of this study. The robustness of our findings is shown by comparing the response of CESM to removed SM variability with four other global climate models. In summary, SM and SSTs

  6. Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Woo Lee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM, namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs, Regional Model Program (RMP. The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070 simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

  7. Comparative influence of land and sea surfaces on the Sahelian drought: a numerical study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arona Diedhiou

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to compare the relative impact of land and sea surface anomalies on Sahel rainfall and to describe the associated anomalies in the atmospheric general circulation. This sensitivity study was done with the Météo-France climate model: ARPEGE. The sensitivity to land surface conditions consists of changes in the management of water and heat exchanges by vegetation cover and bare soil. The sensitivity to ocean surfaces consists in forcing the lower boundary of the model with worldwide composite sea surface temperature (SST anomalies obtained from the difference between 4 dry Sahel years and 4 wet Sahel years observed since 1970. For each case, the spatiotemporal variability of the simulated rainfall anomaly and changes in the modelled tropical easterly jet (TEJ and African easterly jet (AEJ are discussed. The global changes in land surface evaporation have caused a rainfall deficit over the Sahel and over the Guinea Coast. No significant changes in the simulated TEJ and an enhancement of the AEJ are found; at the surface, the energy budget and the hydrological cycle are substantially modified. On the other hand, SST anomalies induce a negative rainfall anomaly over the Sahel and a positive rainfall anomaly to the south of this area. The rainfall deficit due to those anomalies is consistent with previous diagnostic and sensitivity studies. The TEJ is weaker and the AEJ is stronger than in the reference. The composite impact of SST and land surfaces anomalies is also analyzed: the simulated rainfall anomaly is similar to the observed mean African drought patterns. This work suggests that large-scale variations of surface conditions may have a substantial influence on Sahel rainfall and shows the importance of land surface parameterization in climate change modelling. In addition, it points out the interest in accurately considering the land and sea surfaces conditions in sensitivity studies on Sahel rainfall.

  8. Comparative influence of land and sea surfaces on the Sahelian drought: a numerical study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Diedhiou

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to compare the relative impact of land and sea surface anomalies on Sahel rainfall and to describe the associated anomalies in the atmospheric general circulation. This sensitivity study was done with the Météo-France climate model: ARPEGE. The sensitivity to land surface conditions consists of changes in the management of water and heat exchanges by vegetation cover and bare soil. The sensitivity to ocean surfaces consists in forcing the lower boundary of the model with worldwide composite sea surface temperature (SST anomalies obtained from the difference between 4 dry Sahel years and 4 wet Sahel years observed since 1970. For each case, the spatiotemporal variability of the simulated rainfall anomaly and changes in the modelled tropical easterly jet (TEJ and African easterly jet (AEJ are discussed. The global changes in land surface evaporation have caused a rainfall deficit over the Sahel and over the Guinea Coast. No significant changes in the simulated TEJ and an enhancement of the AEJ are found; at the surface, the energy budget and the hydrological cycle are substantially modified. On the other hand, SST anomalies induce a negative rainfall anomaly over the Sahel and a positive rainfall anomaly to the south of this area. The rainfall deficit due to those anomalies is consistent with previous diagnostic and sensitivity studies. The TEJ is weaker and the AEJ is stronger than in the reference. The composite impact of SST and land surfaces anomalies is also analyzed: the simulated rainfall anomaly is similar to the observed mean African drought patterns. This work suggests that large-scale variations of surface conditions may have a substantial influence on Sahel rainfall and shows the importance of land surface parameterization in climate change modelling. In addition, it points out the interest in accurately considering the land and sea surfaces conditions in sensitivity studies on Sahel rainfall.

  9. Quantum anomalies in nodal line semimetals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkov, A. A.

    2018-04-01

    Topological semimetals are a new class of condensed matter systems with nontrivial electronic structure topology. Their unusual observable properties may often be understood in terms of quantum anomalies. In particular, Weyl and Dirac semimetals, which have point band-touching nodes, are characterized by the chiral anomaly, which leads to the Fermi arc surface states, anomalous Hall effect, negative longitudinal magnetoresistance, and planar Hall effect. In this paper, we explore analogous phenomena in nodal line semimetals. We demonstrate that such semimetals realize a three-dimensional analog of the parity anomaly, which is a known property of two-dimensional Dirac semimetals arising, for example, on the surface of a three-dimensional topological insulator. We relate one of the characteristic properties of nodal line semimetals, namely, the drumhead surface states, to this anomaly, and derive the field theory, which encodes the corresponding anomalous response.

  10. Branchial anomalies in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajaj, Y; Ifeacho, S; Tweedie, D; Jephson, C G; Albert, D M; Cochrane, L A; Wyatt, M E; Jonas, N; Hartley, B E J

    2011-08-01

    Branchial cleft anomalies are the second most common head and neck congenital lesions seen in children. Amongst the branchial cleft malformations, second cleft lesions account for 95% of the branchial anomalies. This article analyzes all the cases of branchial cleft anomalies operated on at Great Ormond Street Hospital over the past 10 years. All children who underwent surgery for branchial cleft sinus or fistula from January 2000 to December 2010 were included in this study. In this series, we had 80 patients (38 female and 42 male). The age at the time of operation varied from 1 year to 14 years. Amongst this group, 15 patients had first branchial cleft anomaly, 62 had second branchial cleft anomaly and 3 had fourth branchial pouch anomaly. All the first cleft cases were operated on by a superficial parotidectomy approach with facial nerve identification. Complete excision was achieved in all these first cleft cases. In this series of first cleft anomalies, we had one complication (temporary marginal mandibular nerve weakness. In the 62 children with second branchial cleft anomalies, 50 were unilateral and 12 were bilateral. In the vast majority, the tract extended through the carotid bifurcation and extended up to pharyngeal constrictor muscles. Majority of these cases were operated on through an elliptical incision around the external opening. Complete excision was achieved in all second cleft cases except one who required a repeat excision. In this subgroup, we had two complications one patient developed a seroma and one had incomplete excision. The three patients with fourth pouch anomaly were treated with endoscopic assisted monopolar diathermy to the sinus opening with good outcome. Branchial anomalies are relatively common in children. There are three distinct types, first cleft, second cleft and fourth pouch anomaly. Correct diagnosis is essential to avoid inadequate surgery and multiple procedures. The surgical approach needs to be tailored to the type

  11. Clear-Sky Longwave Irradiance at the Earth's Surface--Evaluation of Climate Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garratt, J. R.

    2001-04-01

    An evaluation of the clear-sky longwave irradiance at the earth's surface (LI) simulated in climate models and in satellite-based global datasets is presented. Algorithm-based estimates of LI, derived from global observations of column water vapor and surface (or screen air) temperature, serve as proxy `observations.' All datasets capture the broad zonal variation and seasonal behavior in LI, mainly because the behavior in column water vapor and temperature is reproduced well. Over oceans, the dependence of annual and monthly mean irradiance upon sea surface temperature (SST) closely resembles the observed behavior of column water with SST. In particular, the observed hemispheric difference in the summer minus winter column water dependence on SST is found in all models, though with varying seasonal amplitudes. The analogous behavior in the summer minus winter LI is seen in all datasets. Over land, all models have a more highly scattered dependence of LI upon surface temperature compared with the situation over the oceans. This is related to a much weaker dependence of model column water on the screen-air temperature at both monthly and annual timescales, as observed. The ability of climate models to simulate realistic LI fields depends as much on the quality of model water vapor and temperature fields as on the quality of the longwave radiation codes. In a comparison of models with observations, root-mean-square gridpoint differences in mean monthly column water and temperature are 4-6 mm (5-8 mm) and 0.5-2 K (3-4 K), respectively, over large regions of ocean (land), consistent with the intermodel differences in LI of 5-13 W m2 (15-28 W m2).

  12. Global gravitational anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Witten, E.

    1985-01-01

    A general formula for global gauge and gravitational anomalies is derived. It is used to show that the anomaly free supergravity and superstring theories in ten dimensions are all free of global anomalies that might have ruined their consistency. However, it is shown that global anomalies lead to some restrictions on allowed compactifications of these theories. For example, in the case of O(32) superstring theory, it is shown that a global anomaly related to π 7 (O(32)) leads to a Dirac-like quantization condition for the field strength of the antisymmetric tensor field. Related to global anomalies is the question of the number of fermion zero modes in an instanton field. It is argued that the relevant gravitational instantons are exotic spheres. It is shown that the number of fermion zero modes in an instanton field is always even in ten dimensional supergravity. (orig.)

  13. Assessing the relationship between surface urban heat islands and landscape patterns across climatic zones in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Qiquan; Huang, Xin; Li, Jiayi

    2017-08-24

    The urban heat island (UHI) effect exerts a great influence on the Earth's environment and human health and has been the subject of considerable attention. Landscape patterns are among the most important factors relevant to surface UHIs (SUHIs); however, the relationship between SUHIs and landscape patterns is poorly understood over large areas. In this study, the surface UHI intensity (SUHII) is defined as the temperature difference between urban and suburban areas, and the landscape patterns are quantified by the urban-suburban differences in several typical landscape metrics (ΔLMs). Temperature and land-cover classification datasets based on satellite observations were applied to analyze the relationship between SUHII and ΔLMs in 332 cities/city agglomerations distributed in different climatic zones of China. The results indicate that SUHII and its correlations with ΔLMs are profoundly influenced by seasonal, diurnal, and climatic factors. The impacts of different land-cover types on SUHIs are different, and the landscape patterns of the built-up and vegetation (including forest, grassland, and cultivated land) classes have the most significant effects on SUHIs. The results of this study will help us to gain a deeper understanding of the relationship between the SUHI effect and landscape patterns.

  14. Climate applications for NOAA 1/4° Daily Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, T.; Banzon, P. V. F.; Liu, G.; Saha, K.; Wilson, C.; Stachniewicz, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    Few sea surface temperature (SST) datasets from satellites have the long temporal span needed for climate studies. The NOAA Daily Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (DOISST) on a 1/4° grid, produced at National Centers for Environmental Information, is based primarily on SSTs from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), available from 1981 to the present. AVHRR data can contain biases, particularly when aerosols are present. Over the three decade span, the largest departure of AVHRR SSTs from buoy temperatures occurred during the Mt Pinatubo and El Chichon eruptions. Therefore, in DOISST, AVHRR SSTs are bias-adjusted to match in situ SSTs prior to interpolation. This produces a consistent time series of complete SST fields that is suitable for modelling and investigating local climate phenomena like El Nino or the Pacific warm blob in a long term context. Because many biological processes and animal distributions are temperature dependent, there are also many ecological uses of DOISST (e.g., coral bleaching thermal stress, fish and marine mammal distributions), thereby providing insights into resource management in a changing ocean. The advantages and limitations of using DOISST for different applications will be discussed.

  15. Anomaly-free models for flavour anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, John; Fairbairn, Malcolm; Tunney, Patrick

    2018-03-01

    We explore the constraints imposed by the cancellation of triangle anomalies on models in which the flavour anomalies reported by LHCb and other experiments are due to an extra U(1)^' gauge boson Z^' . We assume universal and rational U(1)^' charges for the first two generations of left-handed quarks and of right-handed up-type quarks but allow different charges for their third-generation counterparts. If the right-handed charges vanish, cancellation of the triangle anomalies requires all the quark U(1)^' charges to vanish, if there are either no exotic fermions or there is only one Standard Model singlet dark matter (DM) fermion. There are non-trivial anomaly-free models with more than one such `dark' fermion, or with a single DM fermion if right-handed up-type quarks have non-zero U(1)^' charges. In some of the latter models the U(1)^' couplings of the first- and second-generation quarks all vanish, weakening the LHC Z^' constraint, and in some other models the DM particle has purely axial couplings, weakening the direct DM scattering constraint. We also consider models in which anomalies are cancelled via extra vector-like leptons, showing how the prospective LHC Z^' constraint may be weakened because the Z^' → μ ^+ μ ^- branching ratio is suppressed relative to other decay modes.

  16. An explanation for the different climate sensitivities of land and ocean surfaces based on the diurnal cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kleidon

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Observations and climate model simulations consistently show a higher climate sensitivity of land surfaces compared to ocean surfaces. Here we show that this difference in temperature sensitivity can be explained by the different means by which the diurnal variation in solar radiation is buffered. While ocean surfaces buffer the diurnal variations by heat storage changes below the surface, land surfaces buffer it mostly by heat storage changes above the surface in the lower atmosphere that are reflected in the diurnal growth of a convective boundary layer. Storage changes below the surface allow the ocean surface–atmosphere system to maintain turbulent fluxes over day and night, while the land surface–atmosphere system maintains turbulent fluxes only during the daytime hours, when the surface is heated by absorption of solar radiation. This shorter duration of turbulent fluxes on land results in a greater sensitivity of the land surface–atmosphere system to changes in the greenhouse forcing because nighttime temperatures are shaped by radiative exchange only, which are more sensitive to changes in greenhouse forcing. We use a simple, analytic energy balance model of the surface–atmosphere system in which turbulent fluxes are constrained by the maximum power limit to estimate the effects of these different means to buffer the diurnal cycle on the resulting temperature sensitivities. The model predicts that land surfaces have a 50 % greater climate sensitivity than ocean surfaces, and that the nighttime temperatures on land increase about twice as much as daytime temperatures because of the absence of turbulent fluxes at night. Both predictions compare very well with observations and CMIP5 climate model simulations. Hence, the greater climate sensitivity of land surfaces can be explained by its buffering of diurnal variations in solar radiation in the lower atmosphere.

  17. First branchial groove anomaly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, M; Hickey, S; Joseph, G

    2000-06-01

    First branchial groove anomalies are very rare. We report a case of a first branchial groove anomaly presented as an infected cyst in an 11-month-old child. Management of such lesions is complicated because of their close association with the facial nerve. Surgical management must include identification and protection of the facial nerve. Embryology and facial nerve disposition in relation to the anomaly are reviewed.

  18. Growing season boundary layer climate and surface exchanges in a subarctic lichen woodland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzjarrald, David R.; Moore, Kathleen E.

    1994-01-01

    Between June and August 1990, observations were made at two surface micrometeorological towers near Schefferville Quebec (54 deg 52 min N, 66 deg 40.5 min W), one in a fen and one in the subarctic lichen woodland, and at four surface climatological stations. Data from these surface stations were supplemented by regular radiosonde launches. Supporting measurements of radiative components and soil temperatures allowed heat and moisture balances to be obtained at two sites. The overall surface meteorological experiment design and results of micrometeorological observations made on a 30-m tower in the lichen woodland are presented here. Seasonal variation in the heat and water vapor transport characteristics illustrate the marked effect of the late summer climatological shift in air mass type. During the first half of the summer, average valley sidewalls only 100 m high are sufficient to channel winds along the valley in the entire convective boundary layer. Channeling effects at the surface, known for some time at the long-term climate station in Schefferville, are observed both at ridge top and in the valley, possibly the response of the flow to the NW-SE orientation of valleys in the region. Diurnal surface temperature amplitude at ridge top (approximately equal to 10 C) was found to be half that observed in the valley. Relatively large differences in precipitation among these stations and the climatological station at Schefferville airport were observed and attributed to the local topography. Eddy correlation observations of the heat, moisture and momentum transports were obtained from a 30-m tower above a sparse (approximately equal to 616 stems/ha) black spruce lichen woodland. Properties of the turbulent surface boundary layer agree well with previous wind tunnel studies over idealized rough surfaces. Daytime Bowen ratios of 2.5-3 are larger than those reported in previous studies. Surface layer flux data quality was assessed by looking at the surface layer heat

  19. Comparison of surface freshwater fluxes from different climate forecasts produced through different ensemble generation schemes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanova, Vanya; Hense, Andreas; Wahl, Sabrina; Brune, Sebastian; Baehr, Johanna

    2016-04-01

    The decadal variability and its predictability of the surface net freshwater fluxes is compared in a set of retrospective predictions, all using the same model setup, and only differing in the implemented ocean initialisation method and ensemble generation method. The basic aim is to deduce the differences between the initialization/ensemble generation methods in view of the uncertainty of the verifying observational data sets. The analysis will give an approximation of the uncertainties of the net freshwater fluxes, which up to now appear to be one of the most uncertain products in observational data and model outputs. All ensemble generation methods are implemented into the MPI-ESM earth system model in the framework of the ongoing MiKlip project (www.fona-miklip.de). Hindcast experiments are initialised annually between 2000-2004, and from each start year 10 ensemble members are initialized for 5 years each. Four different ensemble generation methods are compared: (i) a method based on the Anomaly Transform method (Romanova and Hense, 2015) in which the initial oceanic perturbations represent orthogonal and balanced anomaly structures in space and time and between the variables taken from a control run, (ii) one-day-lagged ocean states from the MPI-ESM-LR baseline system (iii) one-day-lagged of ocean and atmospheric states with preceding full-field nudging to re-analysis in both the atmospheric and the oceanic component of the system - the baseline one MPI-ESM-LR system, (iv) an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) implemented into oceanic part of MPI-ESM (Brune et al. 2015), assimilating monthly subsurface oceanic temperature and salinity (EN3) using the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF). The hindcasts are evaluated probabilistically using fresh water flux data sets from four different reanalysis data sets: MERRA, NCEP-R1, GFDL ocean reanalysis and GECCO2. The assessments show no clear differences in the evaluations scores on regional scales. However, on the

  20. Surface energy balances of three general circulation models: Current climate and response to increasing atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutowski, W.J.; Gutzler, D.S.; Portman, D.; Wang, W.C.

    1988-04-01

    The surface energy balance simulated by state-of-the-art general circulation models at GFDL, GISS and NCAR for climates with current levels of atmospheric CO 2 concentration (control climate) and with twice the current levels. The work is part of an effort sponsored by the US Department of Energy to assess climate simulations produced by these models. The surface energy balance enables us to diagnose differences between models in surface temperature climatology and sensitivity to doubling CO 2 in terms of the processes that control surface temperature. Our analysis compares the simulated balances by averaging the fields of interest over a hierarchy of spatial domains ranging from the entire globe down to regions a few hundred kilometers across

  1. The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neeman, Binyamin U.; Ohring, George; Joseph, Joachim H.

    1988-01-01

    A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps.

  2. Research on Land Surface Thermal-Hydrologic Exchange in Southern China under Future Climate and Land Cover Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianwu Yan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change inevitably leads to changes in hydrothermal circulation. However, thermal-hydrologic exchanging caused by land cover change has also undergone ineligible changes. Therefore, studying the comprehensive effects of climate and land cover changes on land surface water and heat exchanges enables us to well understand the formation mechanism of regional climate and predict climate change with fewer uncertainties. This study investigated the land surface thermal-hydrologic exchange across southern China for the next 40 years using a land surface model (ecosystem-atmosphere simulation scheme (EASS. Our findings are summarized as follows. (i Spatiotemporal variation patterns of sensible heat flux (H and evapotranspiration (ET under the land cover scenarios (A2a or B2a and climate change scenario (A1B are unanimous. (ii Both H and ET take on a single peak pattern, and the peak occurs in June or July. (iii Based on the regional interannual variability analysis, H displays a downward trend (10% and ET presents an increasing trend (15%. (iv The annual average H and ET would, respectively, increase and decrease by about 10% when woodland converts to the cultivated land. Through this study, we recognize that land surface water and heat exchanges are affected greatly by the future climate change as well as land cover change.

  3. Land surface phenology of Northeast China during 2000-2015: temporal changes and relationships with climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yue; Li, Lin; Wang, Hongbin; Zhang, Yao; Wang, Naijia; Chen, Junpeng

    2017-10-01

    As an important crop growing area, Northeast China (NEC) plays a vital role in China's food security, which has been severely affected by climate change in recent years. Vegetation phenology in this region is sensitive to climate change, and currently, the relationship between the phenology of NEC and climate change remains unclear. In this study, we used a satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to obtain the temporal patterns of the land surface phenology in NEC from 2000 to 2015 and validated the results using ground phenology observations. We then explored the relationships among land surface phenology, temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours for relevant periods. Our results showed that the NEC experienced great phenological changes in terms of spatial heterogeneity during 2000-2015. The spatial patterns of land surface phenology mainly changed with altitude and land cover type. In most regions of NEC, the start date of land surface phenology had advanced by approximately 1.0 days year -1 , and the length of land surface phenology had been prolonged by approximately 1.0 days year -1 except for the needle-leaf and cropland areas, due to the warm conditions. We found that a distinct inter-annual variation in land surface phenology related to climate variables, even if some areas presented non-significant trends. Land surface phenology was coupled with climate variables and distinct responses at different combinations of temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, altitude, and anthropogenic influence. These findings suggest that remote sensing and our phenology extracting methods hold great potential for helping to understand how land surface phenology is sensitive to global climate change.

  4. A new method for extracting near-surface mass-density anomalies from land-based gravity data, based on a special case of Poisson's PDE at the Earth's surface: A case study of salt diapirs in the south of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    AllahTavakoli, Y.; Safari, A.; Ardalan, A.; Bahroudi, A.

    2015-12-01

    The current research provides a method for tracking near-surface mass-density anomalies via using only land-based gravity data, which is based on a special version of Poisson's Partial Differential Equation (PDE) of the gravitational field at Earth's surface. The research demonstrates how the Poisson's PDE can provide us with a capability to extract the near-surface mass-density anomalies from land-based gravity data. Herein, this version of the Poisson's PDE is mathematically introduced to the Earth's surface and then it is used to develop the new method for approximating the mass-density via derivatives of the Earth's gravitational field (i.e. via the gradient tensor). Herein, the author believes that the PDE can give us new knowledge about the behavior of the Earth's gravitational field at the Earth's surface which can be so useful for developing new methods of Earth's mass-density determination. In a case study, the proposed method is applied to a set of gravity stations located in the south of Iran. The results were numerically validated via certain knowledge about the geological structures in the area of the case study. Also, the method was compared with two standard methods of mass-density determination. All the numerical experiments show that the proposed approach is well-suited for tracking near-surface mass-density anomalies via using only the gravity data. Finally, the approach is also applied to some petroleum exploration studies of salt diapirs in the south of Iran.

  5. Congenital anomalies in Primorsky region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiku, P; Voronin, S; Golokhvast, K

    2015-01-01

    According to WHO hereditary diseases and congenital malformations contribute significantly to the health of population. Thus, the problems of epidemiology, clinical presentation, diagnosis and treatment of congenital abnormalities are of interest for many researchers [2]. In addition, the dynamic accounting for the incidence of congenital malformations and hereditary diseases allows the researchers to assess the ecological situation in the region [1]. The occurrence of congenital anomalies in the world varies; it depends heavily on how carefully the data is collected [4]. Multifactorial or polygenic diseases develop under the influence of environmental factors in the presence of defective genes. They can constitute up to 90% of all chronic pathology [2-5]. To determine the incidence of congenital anomalies under the influence of environmental factors. The study used the methodology of system evaluation of congenital anomalies incidence in Primorsky region, depending on bio-climatic and environmental conditions. The authors used health statistics for the period from 2000 to 2014, F.12 class for congenital abnormalities in adolescents and children that were compared in geographical and temporal aspects with environmental factors of 33 settlements in Primorsky region. The environment is represented by nature and climate (6 factor modules) and sanitation (7 factor modules) blocks of factors. When formalizing the information database of the environment a specially developed 10-point assessment scale was used. Statistical processing of the information was carried out using Pearson's chi-squared test and multiple regression method from SSPS application program package. The study found that over the 15-year period the level of congenital abnormalities in children increased by 27.5% and in adolescents - by 35.1%, and in 2014 it amounted to 1687.6 and 839.3 per 100 000 people, respectively. The predictive model shows a steady further growth of this pathology. The incidence

  6. Growth dynamics of tree-line and lake-shore Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L. in the central Scandinavian Mountains during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the early Little Ice Age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans W Linderholm

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Trees growing at their altitudinal or latitudinal distribution in Fennoscandia have been widely used to reconstruct warm season temperatures, and the region hosts some of the world’s longest tree-ring chronologies. These multi-millennial long chronologies have mainly been built from tree remains found in lakes (subfossil wood from lake-shore trees. We used a unique dataset of Scots pine tree-ring data collected from wood remains found on a mountain slope in the central Scandinavian Mountains, yielding a chronology spanning over much of the last 1200 years. This data was compared with a local subfossil wood chronology with the aim to 1 describe growth variability in two environments during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA and the early Little Ice Age (LIA, and 2 investigate differences in growth characteristics during these contrasting periods. It was shown that the local tree-line during both the MCA and early LIA was almost 150 m higher that at present. Based on living pines from the two environments, tree-line pine growth was strongly associated with mid-summer temperatures, while the lake-shore trees showed an additional response to summer precipitation. During the MCA, regarded to be a period of favourable climate in the region, the tree-ring data from both environments showed strong coherency and moderate growth variability. In the early LIA, the two chronologies were less coherent, with the tree-line chronology showing more variability, suggesting different growth responses in the two environments during this period of less favourable growing conditions. Our results indicate that tree-ring width chronologies mainly based on lake-shore trees may need to be re-evaluated.

  7. Dental Anomalies: An Update

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Jahanimoghadam

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Dental anomalies are usual congenital malformation that can happen either as isolated findings or as a part of a syndrome. Developmental anomalies influencing the morphology exists in both deciduous and permanent dentition and shows different forms such as gemination, fusion, concrescence, dilaceration, dens evaginatus (DE, enamel pearls, taurodontism or peg-shaped laterals. All These anomalies have clinical significance concerning aesthetics, malocclusion and more necessary preparing of the development of dental decays and oral diseases. Through a search in PubMed, Google, Scopus and Medline, a total of eighty original research papers during 1928-2016 were found with the keywords such as dental anomaly, syndrome, tooth and hypodontia. One hundred review titles were identified, eighty reviews were retrieved that were finally included as being relevant and of sufficient quality. In this review, dental anomalies including gemination, fusion, concrescence, dilaceration, dens invaginatus, DE, taurodontism, enamel pearls, fluorosis, peg-shaped laterals, dentinal dysplasia, regional odontodysplasia and hypodontia are discussed. Diagnosing dental abnormality needs a thorough evaluation of the patient, involving a medical, dental, familial and clinical history. Clinical examination and radiographic evaluation and in some of the cases, specific laboratory tests are also needed. Developmental dental anomalies require careful examination and treatment planning. Where one anomaly is present, clinicians should suspect that other anomalies may also be present. Moreover, careful clinical and radiographical examination is required. Furthermore, more complex cases need multidisciplinary planning and treatment.

  8. Spatial and temporal Teleconnections of Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Indices to regional Climate Variations across Thailand - a Pathway to understanding the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bejranonda, Werapol; Koch, Manfred

    2010-05-01

    (ENSO) events in the Pacific Ocean, if such teleconnections exist, one would have would have a powerful tool at hand to forecast extreme seasonal climate pattern across Thailand over a limited time period. Eventually, such a predictive tool would help to better manage the availability and adequate supply of surface water resources to the various water users in this country. In the present study the spatial and temporal relationships between the global climate circulation system and the regional weather in Thailand are assessed by various techniques of stochastic time series analysis. More specifically, the time series of the sea surface temperature (SST) and various ocean indices of the Pacific and the Indian Oceans, as well as the time series of 121 meteorological stations from 5 regions across Thailand which include humidity, evaporation, temperature and rainfall during 1950-2007 are examined using autocorrelation, ARIMA, Wavelet Transform methods. Possible teleconnections between the behaviour of the ocean states and the climate variations at meteorological stations in eastern Thailand which frequently suffers from water shortage problems are analyzed using regression, cross-correlation and the Wavelet cross-correlation method. In addition to the time series of the observed ocean and meteorological variables, 1961-2000 CGCM3 predictors of the macro-scale regional climate variations for this study area are analyzed by the methods above and correlated with the ocean indices as well. Rainfall and temperatures at selected stations are forecasted up to year 2007 using the teleconnection- relationships found by multiple linear regression with the CGCM3 predictors. In addition, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models of these climate variable are set up that are eventually extended to include the ocean indices as external regressors. The results of these various statistical techniques show that the El-Niño 1.2 SST anomaly indice of the Pacific Ocean, which

  9. Near-surface wind pattern in regional climate projections over the broader Adriatic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belušić, Andreina; Telišman Prtenjak, Maja; Güttler, Ivan; Ban, Nikolina; Leutwyler, David; Schär, Christoph

    2017-04-01

    The Adriatic region is characterized by the complex coastline, strong topographic gradients and specific wind regimes. This represents excellent test area for the latest generation of the regional climate models (RCMs) applied over the European domain. The most famous wind along the Adriatic coast is bora, which due to its strength, has a strong impact on all types of human activities in the Adriatic region. The typical bora wind is a severe gusty downslope flow perpendicular to the mountains. Besides bora, in the Adriatic region, typical winds are sirocco (mostly during the wintertime) and sea/land breezes (dominantly in the warm part of the year) as a part of the regional Mediterranean wind system. Thus, it is substantial to determine future changes in the wind filed characteristics (e.g., changes in strength and frequencies). The first step was the evaluation of a suite of ten EURO- and MED-CORDEX models (at 50 km and 12.5 km resolution), and two additional high resolution models from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich (ETHZ, at 12.5 km and 2.2. km resolution) in the present climate. These results provided a basis for the next step where wind field features, in an ensemble of RCMs forced by global climate models (GCMs) in historical and future runs are examined. Our aim is to determine the influence of the particular combination of RCMs and GCMs, horizontal resolution and emission scenario on the future changes in the near-surface wind field. The analysis reveals strong sensitivity of the simulated wind flow and its statistics to both season and location analyzed, to the horizontal resolution of the RCM and on the choice of the particular GCM that provides boundary conditions.

  10. Contributions of developed and developing countries to global climate forcing and surface temperature change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, D S; Mahowald, N M

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the relative contributions of individual countries to global climate change for different time periods is essential for mitigation strategies that seek to hold nations accountable for their historical emissions. Previous assessments of this kind have compared countries by their greenhouse gas emissions, but have yet to consider the full spectrum of the short-lived gases and aerosols. In this study, we use the radiative forcing of anthropogenic emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases, ozone precursors, aerosols, and from albedo changes from land cover change together with a simple climate model to evaluate country contributions to climate change. We assess the historical contribution of each country to global surface temperature change from anthropogenic forcing ( Δ T s ), future Δ T s through year 2100 given two different emissions scenarios, and the Δ T s that each country has committed to from past activities between 1850 and 2010 (committed Δ T s ). By including forcings in addition to the long-lived greenhouse gases the contribution of developed countries, particularly the United States, to Δ T s from 1850 to 2010 (58%) is increased compared to an assessment of CO 2 -equivalent emissions for the same time period (52%). Contributions to committed Δ T s evaluated at year 2100, dominated by long-lived greenhouse gas forcing, are more evenly split between developed and developing countries (55% and 45%, respectively). The portion of anthropogenic Δ T s attributable to developing countries is increasing, led by emissions from China and India, and we estimate that this will surpass the contribution from developed countries around year 2030. (paper)

  11. Modeling The Urban Impact On Semiarid Surface Climate: A Case Study In Marrakesh, Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachir, Asia; Bounoua, Lahouari; Zhang, Ping; Thome, Kurtis; Messouli, Mohamed

    2016-01-01

    We combine Landsat and MODIS data in the Simple Biosphere Model to assess the impact of urbanization on surface climate in a semiarid city in North Africa. The model simulates highest temperatures in urban class, with spring average maximum temperature differences to other land cover classes ranging between 1.6 C and 6.0 C. During summer, these maximum temperature differences are smallest (0.5 C) with barelands and highest (8.3 C) with irrigated lawns. This excess heating is simulated above and beyond a seasonal temperature average of about 30 C during spring and 44 C during summer. On annual mean, a full urbanization scenario decreases the carbon fixation by 0.13 MtC and increases the daytime mean surface temperature by 1.3 C. This may boost the city energy consumption by 5.72%. Under a 'smart growth' scenario, whereby the city expands on barelands to cover 50% of the study region and all remaining barelands converted to orchards, the carbon fixation is enhanced by 0.04 MtC with a small daytime temperature increase of 0.2 C. Our results indicate that vegetation can mitigate the urban heating. The hydrological cycle indicates that highest ratio of surface runoff to precipitation (43.8%) occurs in urban areas, versus only 16.7 % for all cover types combined.

  12. Modeling the Urban Impact on Semiarid Surface Climate: A Case Study in Marrakech, Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachir, Asia; Bounoua, Lahouari; Zhang, Ping; Thome, Kurtis; Moussouli, Mohamed

    2016-01-01

    We combine Landsat and MODIS data in the Simple Biosphere Model to assess the impact of urbanization on surface climate in a semiarid city in North Africa. The model simulates highest temperatures in urban class, with spring average maximum temperature differences to other land cover classes ranging between 1.6 C and 6.0 C. During summer, these maximum temperature differences are smallest (0.5 C) with barelands and highest (8.3 C) with irrigated lawns. This excess heating is simulated above and beyond a seasonal temperature average of about 30 C during spring and 44 C during summer. On annual mean, a full urbanization scenario decreases the carbon fixation by 0.13 MtC and increases the daytime mean surface temperature by 1.3 C. This may boost the city energy consumption by 5.72%. Under a 'smart growth' scenario, whereby the city expands on barelands to cover 50% of the study region and all remaining barelands converted to orchards, the carbon fixation is enhanced by 0.04 MtC with a small daytime temperature increase of 0.2 C. Our results indicate that vegetation can mitigate the urban heating. The hydrological cycle indicates that highest ratio of surface runoff to precipitation (43.8%) occurs in urban areas, versus only 16.7 % for all cover types combined.

  13. Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 - Part 2: Antarctica (1979-2016)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melchior van Wessem, Jan; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Noël, Brice P. Y.; van Meijgaard, Erik; Amory, Charles; Birnbaum, Gerit; Jakobs, Constantijn L.; Krüger, Konstantin; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M.; Medley, Brooke; Reijmer, Carleen H.; van Tricht, Kristof; Trusel, Luke D.; van Ulft, Lambertus H.; Wouters, Bert; Wuite, Jan; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

    2018-04-01

    We evaluate modelled Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) near-surface climate, surface mass balance (SMB) and surface energy balance (SEB) from the updated polar version of the regional atmospheric climate model, RACMO2 (1979-2016). The updated model, referred to as RACMO2.3p2, incorporates upper-air relaxation, a revised topography, tuned parameters in the cloud scheme to generate more precipitation towards the AIS interior and modified snow properties reducing drifting snow sublimation and increasing surface snowmelt. Comparisons of RACMO2 model output with several independent observational data show that the existing biases in AIS temperature, radiative fluxes and SMB components are further reduced with respect to the previous model version. The model-integrated annual average SMB for the ice sheet including ice shelves (minus the Antarctic Peninsula, AP) now amounts to 2229 Gt y-1, with an interannual variability of 109 Gt y-1. The largest improvement is found in modelled surface snowmelt, which now compares well with satellite and weather station observations. For the high-resolution ( ˜ 5.5 km) AP simulation, results remain comparable to earlier studies. The updated model provides a new, high-resolution data set of the contemporary near-surface climate and SMB of the AIS; this model version will be used for future climate scenario projections in a forthcoming study.

  14. On the origins of Earth rotation anomalies: New insights on the basis of both “paleogeodetic” data and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peltier, W. R.; Luthcke, Scott B.

    2009-11-01

    The theory previously developed to predict the impact on Earth's rotational state of the late Pleistocene glaciation cycle is extended. In particular, we examine the extent to which a departure of the infinite time asymptote of the viscoelastic tidal Love number of degree 2, "k2T," from the observed "fluid" Love number, "kf," impacts the theory. A number of tests of the influence of the difference in these Love numbers on theoretical predictions of the model of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process are explored. Relative sea level history predictions are shown not to be sensitive to the difference even though they are highly sensitive to the influence of the changing rotational state itself. We also explore in detail the accuracy with which the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite system is able to observe the global GIA process including the time-dependent amplitude of the degree 2 and order 1 spherical harmonic components of the gravitational field, the only components that are significantly influenced by rotational effects. It is explicitly shown that the GRACE observation of these properties of the time-varying gravitational field is sufficiently accurate to rule out the values predicted by the ICE-5G (VM2) model of Peltier (2004). However, we also note that this model is constrained only by data from an epoch during which modern greenhouse gas induced melting of both the great polar ice-sheets and small ice sheets and glaciers was not occurring. Such modern loss of grounded continental ice strongly influences the evolving rotational state of the planet and thus the values of the degree 2 and order 1 Stokes coefficients as they are currently being measured by the GRACE satellite system. A series of sensitivity tests are employed to demonstrate this fact. We suggest that the accuracy of scenarios for modern land ice melting may be tested by ensuring that such scenarios conform to the GRACE observations of these crucial time

  15. Sea Surface Temperature Climate Data Record for the North Sea and Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høyer, Jacob L.; Karagali, Ioanna

    2016-01-01

    A 30-yr climate data record (CDR) of sea surface temperature (SST) has been produced with daily gap-free analysis fields for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea region from 1982 to 2012 by combining the Pathfinder AVHRR satellite data record with the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) Reprocessing...... for Climate (ARC) dataset and with in situ observations. A dynamical bias correction scheme adjusts the Pathfinder observations toward the ARC and in situ observations. Largest Pathfinder-ARC differences are found in the summer months, when the Pathfinder observations are up to 0.4 °C colder than the ARC...... observations on average. Validation against independent in situ observations shows a very stable performance of the data record, with a mean difference of -0.06 °C compared to moored buoys and a 0.46 °C standard deviation of the differences. The mean annual biases of the SST CDR are small for all years...

  16. What will be the impacts of climate change on surface hydrology in France by 2070?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chauveau, Mathilde; Chazot, Sebastien; David, Julian; Norotte, Thomas; Perrin, Charles; Bourgin, Pierre-Yves; Sauquet, Eric; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Rouchy, Nathalie; Martin, Eric; Maugis, Pascal; De Lacaze, Xavier

    2013-01-01

    Within the Explore 2070 project, an evaluation of the possible impacts of climate change on surface water between the 1961-1990 reference period and the 2046-2065 period was carried out in continental France and i n overseas departments on the basis of the A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario, seven general circulation models an d two hydrological models (Isba-Modcou and GR4J). In continental France, results indicate: (1) a possible increase in ai r temperature between +1.4 deg. C and +3 deg. C; (2) an uncertain evolution of precipitation, most models however agreeing on a decreasing trend in summer precipitation; (3) a significant decrease (10% to 40%) of mean annual flows at the country scale, especially pronounced in the Seine-Normandie and Adour-Garonne districts; (4) a strong decrease in summer lo w flows in most basins; (5) more heterogeneous and less significant evolutions for floods. A special care was given to the quantification of the uncertainties linked to these results. They provide an indication of the significance of projected changes. The evolutions calculated in the overseas zones can be considered non-significant given the level of uncertainty linked to the hydro-climatic modelling chain. These results urge to implement adaptation strategies based on a better management of water resources, among others. (authors)

  17. The implications of economic development, climate change and European Water Policy on surface water quality threats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jolanta Dąbrowska

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents historical background, up-to-date situation and future perspectives for the development of nutrient pollution threats to European surface water quality, as well as the evolution of the approach to water pollution. Utilized agricultural area in European countries is slightly diminishing, however the consumption of mineral fertilisers is steadily increasing. The consumption in Europe in the years 2015–2030 is projected to increase by 10%, and in the world by 20%. Both climate changes leading to the increase of temperature even of ca. 6°C (in comparison to the pre-industrial period and accelerated soil erosion due to high intensity rainfall cause increased productivity of water ecosystems. Those aspects have to be taken into consideration in water management. Due to legal regulations introduced in the last twenty years, wastewater treatment has been made more effective and population connected to wastewater treatment systems has increased. The improvement has been seen mainly in eastern and southern parts of Europe. After the implementation of Water Framework Directive theories regarding modern water management have been developed, with the aim to increase the ecosystem’s capacity and its resilience to climate changes and anthropopressure.

  18. Detection of a weak meddy-like anomaly from high-resolution satellite SST maps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail Emelianov

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Despite the considerable impact of meddies on climate through the long-distance transport of properties, a consistent observation of meddy generation and propagation in the ocean is rather elusive. Meddies propagate at about 1000 m below the ocean surface, so satellite sensors are not able to detect them directly and finding them in the open ocean is more fortuitous than intentional. However, a consistent census of meddies and their paths is required in order to gain knowledge about their role in transporting properties such as heat and salt. In this paper we propose a new methodology for processing high-resolution sea surface temperature maps in order to detect meddy-like anomalies in the open ocean on a near-real-time basis. We present an example of detection, involving an atypical meddy-like anomaly that was confirmed as such by in situ measurements.

  19. Land Surface Temperature Differences within Local Climate Zones, Based on Two Central European Cities

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Geletič, Jan; Lehnert, M.; Dobrovolný, Petr

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 10 (2016), č. článku 788. ISSN 2072-4292 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Grant - others:UrbanAdapt(XE) EHP-CZ02-OV-1-036-2015 Program:CZ02 Biodiverzita a ekosystémové služby / Monitorování a integrované plánování a kontrola v životním prostředí/ Adaptace na změnu klimatu Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : land surface temperature * local climate zones * ASTER * LANDSAT * analysis of variance * Prague * Brno * Czech Republic Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.244, year: 2016

  20. Assessing surface water flood risk and management strategies under future climate change: Insights from an Agent-Based Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, K; Surminski, S; Hall, J; Crick, F

    2017-10-01

    Climate change and increasing urbanization are projected to result in an increase in surface water flooding and consequential damages in the future. In this paper, we present insights from a novel Agent Based Model (ABM), applied to a London case study of surface water flood risk, designed to assess the interplay between different adaptation options; how risk reduction could be achieved by homeowners and government; and the role of flood insurance and the new flood insurance pool, Flood Re, in the context of climate change. The analysis highlights that while combined investment in property-level flood protection and sustainable urban drainage systems reduce surface water flood risk, the benefits can be outweighed by continued development in high risk areas and the effects of climate change. In our simulations, Flood Re is beneficial in its function to provide affordable insurance, even under climate change. However, the scheme does face increasing financial pressure due to rising surface water flood damages. If the intended transition to risk-based pricing is to take place then a determined and coordinated strategy will be needed to manage flood risk, which utilises insurance incentives, limits new development, and supports resilience measures. Our modelling approach and findings are highly relevant for the ongoing regulatory and political approval process for Flood Re as well as for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes to incentivise flood risk management and climate adaptation in the UK and internationally. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Deriving a sea surface temperature record suitable for climate change research from the along-track scanning radiometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchant, C. J.; Llewellyn-Jones, D.; Saunders, R. W.; Rayner, N. A.; Kent, E. C.; Old, C. P.; Berry, D.; Birks, A. R.; Blackmore, T.; Corlett, G. K.; Embury, O.; Jay, V. L.; Kennedy, J.; Mutlow, C. T.; Nightingale, T. J.; O'Carroll, A. G.; Pritchard, M. J.; Remedios, J. J.; Tett, S.

    We describe the approach to be adopted for a major new initiative to derive a homogeneous record of sea surface temperature for 1991 2007 from the observations of the series of three along-track scanning radiometers (ATSRs). This initiative is called (A)RC: (Advanced) ATSR Re-analysis for Climate. The main objectives are to reduce regional biases in retrieved sea surface temperature (SST) to less than 0.1 K for all global oceans, while creating a very homogenous record that is stable in time to within 0.05 K decade-1, with maximum independence of the record from existing analyses of SST used in climate change research. If these stringent targets are achieved, this record will enable significantly improved estimates of surface temperature trends and variability of sufficient quality to advance questions of climate change attribution, climate sensitivity and historical reconstruction of surface temperature changes. The approach includes development of new, consistent estimators for SST for each of the ATSRs, and detailed analysis of overlap periods. Novel aspects of the approach include generation of multiple versions of the record using alternative channel sets and cloud detection techniques, to assess for the first time the effect of such choices. There will be extensive effort in quality control, validation and analysis of the impact on climate SST data sets. Evidence for the plausibility of the 0.1 K target for systematic error is reviewed, as is the need for alternative cloud screening methods in this context.

  2. Turtle carapace anomalies: the roles of genetic diversity and environment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillermo Velo-Antón

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Phenotypic anomalies are common in wild populations and multiple genetic, biotic and abiotic factors might contribute to their formation. Turtles are excellent models for the study of developmental instability because anomalies are easily detected in the form of malformations, additions, or reductions in the number of scutes or scales.In this study, we integrated field observations, manipulative experiments, and climatic and genetic approaches to investigate the origin of carapace scute anomalies across Iberian populations of the European pond turtle, Emys orbicularis. The proportion of anomalous individuals varied from 3% to 69% in local populations, with increasing frequency of anomalies in northern regions. We found no significant effect of climatic and soil moisture, or climatic temperature on the occurrence of anomalies. However, lower genetic diversity and inbreeding were good predictors of the prevalence of scute anomalies among populations. Both decreasing genetic diversity and increasing proportion of anomalous individuals in northern parts of the Iberian distribution may be linked to recolonization events from the Southern Pleistocene refugium.Overall, our results suggest that developmental instability in turtle carapace formation might be caused, at least in part, by genetic factors, although the influence of environmental factors affecting the developmental stability of turtle carapace cannot be ruled out. Further studies of the effects of environmental factors, pollutants and heritability of anomalies would be useful to better understand the complex origin of anomalies in natural populations.

  3. Prevalence and genetic variability of Plesiomonas shigelloides in temperate climate surface waters of the Pannonian Plain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrušić Milivoje

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Plesiomonas shigelloides, a Gram-negative bacterium and the causative agent of intestinal diseases and extraintestinal infections in humans and animals, is most frequently found in aquatic environments in tropical or subtropical areas. The present study was designed to establish the prevalence and genetic variability of P. shigelloides in surface waters (lakes, rivers, ponds, inlets and canals located in a temperate climate zone, namely the Pannonian Plain of the northern part of Serbia and southern part of Hungary. The strains were isolated directly by plating samples on inositol-brilliant green-bile agar with neutral red or phenol red as indicators. Our results indicate that phenol red effectively facilitates differentiation of P. shigelloides from other bacteria. A number of samples were enriched using alkaline peptone water broth, peptone inositolbile broth and tetrathionate broth. The recovery of the isolates was more successful with the first medium. Out of a total of 51 water samples collected from 28 different locations, 22 samples (43.1% were found positive for P. shigelloides. Among the 37 isolated strains, 34 were from lakes (Šatrinci, Ludaš, Panonija, Krivaja, Pecs, Kapetanski rit, Pavlovci, Kovacsszenaja, Dobrodol, Vranjaš, Borkovac, Hermann Otto, Sot, Šelevrenac, Zobnatica, Palić, Orfui, Jarkovci, Čonoplja and 3 were from rivers (Danube, Sava. The strains were identified by phenotypic characteristic or by the VITEK2 system and confirmed by PCR using 23S rRNA species-specific oligos. The strains showed a high genetic variability, displaying a variety of RAPD profiles. Our results reveal for the first time a high prevalence of genetically diverse P. shigelloides populations in surface waters located in the temperate climate of central and southeastern Europe. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. OI 172058

  4. Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance: evaluating simulations and making projections with regional climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. L. Rae

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Four high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs have been set up for the area of Greenland, with the aim of providing future projections of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB, and its contribution to sea level rise, with greater accuracy than is possible from coarser-resolution general circulation models (GCMs. This is the first time an intercomparison has been carried out of RCM results for Greenland climate and SMB. Output from RCM simulations for the recent past with the four RCMs is evaluated against available observations. The evaluation highlights the importance of using a detailed snow physics scheme, especially regarding the representations of albedo and meltwater refreezing. Simulations with three of the RCMs for the 21st century using SRES scenario A1B from two GCMs produce trends of between −5.5 and −1.1 Gt yr−2 in SMB (equivalent to +0.015 and +0.003 mm sea level equivalent yr−2, with trends of smaller magnitude for scenario E1, in which emissions are mitigated. Results from one of the RCMs whose present-day simulation is most realistic indicate that an annual mean near-surface air temperature increase over Greenland of ~ 2°C would be required for the mass loss to increase such that it exceeds accumulation, thereby causing the SMB to become negative, which has been suggested as a threshold beyond which the ice sheet would eventually be eliminated.

  5. Sea-surface temperatures for the last 7200 years from the eastern Sunda Shelf, South China Sea: Climatic inferences from planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodson, Anna Lee; Leorri, Eduardo; Culver, Stephen J.; Mallinson, David J.; Parham, Peter R.; Thunell, Robert C.; Vijayan, V. R.; Curtis, Scott

    2017-06-01

    To test whether low latitude shallow shelf deposits can provide high resolution paleoclimatic records, we utilized two cores from the Holocene sedimentary fill of incised valleys on the Sunda Shelf off Sarawak, Malaysia. We developed a new sea-surface temperature (SST) record based on planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca for the last 7200 years. This record reveals several significant shifts between warmer and colder conditions. Temperatures averaged 27.5 °C ca. 7200 cal. years BP, then climbed to 28.2 °C from 6500 to 5500 cal. years BP. At 5500-4500 cal. years BP we identified the coldest period (26.8 °C) of the analyzed period. For the last 4500 years SST again averaged 27.5 °C but the profile is rather variable. The last ca. 1000 years recorded the warmest SST averaging 28.5 °C. We record, for the first time in this region, a cool interval, ca. 1000 years in duration, centered on 5000 cal years BP concomitant with a wet period recorded in Borneo. The record also reflects a warm interval from ca. 1000 to 500 cal years BP that may represent the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Variations in the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) and solar activity are considered as potential drivers of SST trends. However, hydrology changes related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, shifts of the Western Pacific Warm Pool and migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone are more likely to have impacted our SST temporal trend. Our findings indicate that climatic patterns in the region might be in phase with ENSO and out of phase with the EAM.

  6. Land Surface Phenologies of the Northern Great Plains: Possible Futures Arising From Land and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henebry, G. M.; Wimberly, M. C.; Senay, G.; Wang, A.; Chang, J.; Wright, C. R.; Hansen, M. C.

    2008-12-01

    Land cover change across the Northern Great Plains of North America over the past three decades has been driven by changes in agricultural management (conservation tillage; irrigation), government incentives (Conservation Reserve Program; subsidies to grain-based ethanol), crop varieties (cold-hardy soybean), and market dynamics (increasing world demand). Climate change across the Northern Great Plains over the past three decades has been evident in trends toward earlier warmth in the spring and a longer frost-free season. Together these land and climate changes induce shifts in local and regional land surface phenologies (LSPs). Any significant shift in LSP may correspond to a significant shift in evapotranspiration, with consequences for regional hydrometeorology. We explored possible future scenarios involving land use and climate change in six steps. First, we defined the nominal draw areas of current and future biorefineries in North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Iowa and masked those land cover types within the draw areas that were unlikely to change to agricultural use (open water, settlements, forests, etc.). Second, we estimated the proportion of corn and soybean remaining within the masked draw areas using MODIS-derived crop maps. Third, in each draw area, we modified LSPs to simulate crop changes for a control and two treatment scenarios. In the control, we used LSP profiles identified from MODIS Collection 5 NBAR data. In one treatment, we increased the proportion of tallgrass LSPs in the draw areas to represent widespread cultivation of a perennial cellulosic crop, like switchgrass. In a second treatment, we increased the proportion of corn LSPs in the draw areas to represent increased corn cultivation. Fourth, we characterized the seasonal progression of the thermal regime associated with the LSP profiles using MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) products. Fifth, we modeled the LSP profile as a quadratic function of accumulated

  7. AATSR - Precise Sea-Surface Temperature for Climate Monitoring and for Operational Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llewellyn-Jones, David; Corlett, Gary; Donlon, Craig; Stark, John

    The Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) is an imaging radiometer specifi- cally designed to measure Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) to the demanding levels of accuracy and stability required for climate research. AATSR, which has been operating continuously on ESA's Envisat Satellite since its launch in 2002, achieves the required levels of accuracy on account of its unique dual view, whereby each terrestrial scene is viewed twice, once at nadir and then through an inclined path which uses a different atmospheric path-length, thereby providing a direct observation of atmospheric effects, leading to an exceptionally accurate atmospheric correction. This feature is accompanied by an advanced calibration system combined with excellent optical and thermal designs. Recent rigorous and extensive comparisons with in situ data have shown that, for most of the global oceans, AATSR can achieve and accuracy of around 0.2o C with high stability, which has qualified them for use in climate analysis schemes. Because AATSR is the third sensor in a near-continuous series which started with the launch of ATSR-1 on ERS-1 satellite in 1991, there is a time-series of 16+ years of climate standard SSTs which have recently been re-processed and are now becoming available to the World-wide user community from data centres in Europe. SST data from AATSR have been included in the suite of operational SST products generated by the GODAE/GHRSST Pilot Project, on a timescale needed by operational users and in a format which allows easy ingestion and error estimates for data from AATSR and most of the other sensors currently providing SST measurements from space. Within the GODAE/GHRSST data-products, AATSR SST data are generally regarded as the benchmark for accuracy and are used to provide bias corrections for data from the other sensors, which often have superior coverage, thus exploiting synergistically the complementary qualities if the different data-sets. The UK Met Office

  8. 2-way coupling the hydrological land surface model PROMET with the regional climate model MM5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Zabel

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Most land surface hydrological models (LSHMs consider land surface processes (e.g. soil–plant–atmosphere interactions, lateral water flows, snow and ice in a spatially detailed manner. The atmosphere is considered as exogenous driver, neglecting feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere. On the other hand, regional climate models (RCMs generally simulate land surface processes through coarse descriptions and spatial scales but include land–atmosphere interactions. What is the impact of the differently applied model physics and spatial resolution of LSHMs on the performance of RCMs? What feedback effects are induced by different land surface models? This study analyses the impact of replacing the land surface module (LSM within an RCM with a high resolution LSHM. A 2-way coupling approach was applied using the LSHM PROMET (1 × 1 km2 and the atmospheric part of the RCM MM5 (45 × 45 km2. The scaling interface SCALMET is used for down- and upscaling the linear and non-linear fluxes between the model scales. The change in the atmospheric response by MM5 using the LSHM is analysed, and its quality is compared to observations of temperature and precipitation for a 4 yr period from 1996 to 1999 for the Upper Danube catchment. By substituting the Noah-LSM with PROMET, simulated non-bias-corrected near-surface air temperature improves for annual, monthly and daily courses when compared to measurements from 277 meteorological weather stations within the Upper Danube catchment. The mean annual bias was improved from −0.85 to −0.13 K. In particular, the improved afternoon heating from May to September is caused by increased sensible heat flux and decreased latent heat flux as well as more incoming solar radiation in the fully coupled PROMET/MM5 in comparison to the NOAH/MM5 simulation. Triggered by the LSM replacement, precipitation overall is reduced; however simulated precipitation amounts are still of high uncertainty, both

  9. Vegetation anomalies caused by antecedent precipitation in most of the world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papagiannopoulou, C.; Miralles, D. G.; Dorigo, W. A.; Verhoest, N. E. C.; Depoorter, M.; Waegeman, W.

    2017-07-01

    Quantifying environmental controls on vegetation is critical to predict the net effect of climate change on global ecosystems and the subsequent feedback on climate. Following a non-linear Granger causality framework based on a random forest predictive model, we exploit the current wealth of multi-decadal satellite data records to uncover the main drivers of monthly vegetation variability at the global scale. Results indicate that water availability is the most dominant factor driving vegetation globally: about 61% of the vegetated surface was primarily water-limited during 1981-2010. This included semiarid climates but also transitional ecoregions. Intra-annually, temperature controls Northern Hemisphere deciduous forests during the growing season, while antecedent precipitation largely dominates vegetation dynamics during the senescence period. The uncovered dependency of global vegetation on water availability is substantially larger than previously reported. This is owed to the ability of the framework to (1) disentangle the co-linearities between radiation/temperature and precipitation, and (2) quantify non-linear impacts of climate on vegetation. Our results reveal a prolonged effect of precipitation anomalies in dry regions: due to the long memory of soil moisture and the cumulative, non-linear, response of vegetation, water-limited regions show sensitivity to the values of precipitation occurring three months earlier. Meanwhile, the impacts of temperature and radiation anomalies are more immediate and dissipate shortly, pointing to a higher resilience of vegetation to these anomalies. Despite being infrequent by definition, hydro-climatic extremes are responsible for up to 10% of the vegetation variability during the 1981-2010 period in certain areas, particularly in water-limited ecosystems. Our approach is a first step towards a quantitative comparison of the resistance and resilience signature of different ecosystems, and can be used to benchmark Earth

  10. The impact of changing climate on surface and ground water quality in southeast of Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tribak, Kamal

    2015-04-01

    In the current changing climate globally, Ireland have been experiencing a yearly recurrent extreme heavy rainfall events in the last decade, with damaging visible effects socially, economically and on the environment. Ireland intensive agriculture production is a major treat to the aquatic environment, Nitrogen and phosphorus losses to the water courses are major causes to eutrophication. The European Water Frame Directive (WFD 2000/60/EC) and Nitrates Directive (91/676/EEC) sets a number of measures to better protect and improve water status. Five years of high temporal resolution river water quality data measurement from two contrasting catchment in the southeast of Ireland were correlated with rain fall and nutrients losses to the ground and surface water, additional to the integrated Southeast River District Basin ground and surface water quality to establish spatiotemporal connection to the agriculture activities, the first well-drained soil catchment had high coefficient correlation with rain fall with higher losses to groundwater, on the other hand higher nutrients losses to surface water were higher with less influence from groundwater recharge of N and P transfer, the poorly clay base soil contributed to higher increased losses to surface water during excessive rain fall. Agriculture activities, hydrology, geology and human interaction can interact according to their site specific setting and the effects will fluctuate dependent on the conditions influencing the impact on water quality, there is a requirement to better distinguish those effects together and identify areas and land uses control and nutrients management to improve the water quality, stakeholders co-operation along with effective polices, long term monitoring, nutrients pathways management and better understanding of the environmental factors interaction on national, regional and catchment scale to enable planning policies and enforcement measures to be more focused on areas of high risk

  11. Introduction to anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez-Gaume, L.

    1986-01-01

    These lectures are dedicated to the study of the recent progress and implications of anomalies in quantum field theory. In this introduction the author recapitulates some of the highlights in the history of the subject. The outline of these lectures is as follows: Section II contains a quick review of spinors in Euclidean and Minkowski space, some other group theory results relevant for the computation of anomalies in various dimensions, and an exposition of the index theorem. Section III starts the analysis of fermion determinants and chiral effective actions by deriving the non-Abelian anomaly from index theory. Using the results of Section II, the anomaly cancellation recently discovered by Green and Schwarz will be presented in Section IV as well as the connection of these results of Section III with the descent equations and the Wess-Zumino-Witten Lagrangians. Section V contains the generalization of anomalies to σ-models and some of its application in string theory. Section VI will deal with the anomalies from the Hamiltonian point of view. An exact formula for the imaginary part of the effective action for chiral fermions in the presence of arbitrary external gauge and gravitational fields will be derived in Section VII, and used in Section VIII for the study of global anomalies. 85 references

  12. Trend of surface solar radiation over Asia simulated by aerosol transport-climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takemura, T.; Ohmura, A.

    2009-12-01

    Long-term records of surface radiation measurements indicate a decrease in the solar radiation between the 1950s and 1980s (“global dimming”), then its recovery afterward (“global brightening”) at many locations all over the globe [Wild, 2009]. On the other hand, the global brightening is delayed over the Asian region [Ohmura, 2009]. It is suggested that these trends of the global dimming and brightening are strongly related with a change in aerosol loading in the atmosphere which affect the climate change through the direct, semi-direct, and indirect effects. In this study, causes of the trend of the surface solar radiation over Asia during last several decades are analyzed with an aerosol transport-climate model, SPRINTARS. SPRINTARS is coupled with MIROC which is a general circulation model (GCM) developed by Center for Climate System Research (CCSR)/University of Tokyo, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), and Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) [Takemura et al., 2000, 2002, 2005, 2009]. The horizontal and vertical resolutions are T106 (approximately 1.1° by 1.1°) and 56 layers, respectively. SPRINTARS includes the transport, radiation, cloud, and precipitation processes of all main tropospheric aerosols (black and organic carbons, sulfate, soil dust, and sea salt). The model treats not only the aerosol mass mixing ratios but also the cloud droplet and ice crystal number concentrations as prognostic variables, and the nucleation processes of cloud droplets and ice crystals depend on the number concentrations of each aerosol species. Changes in the cloud droplet and ice crystal number concentrations affect the cloud radiation and precipitation processes in the model. Historical emissions, that is consumption of fossil fuel and biofuel, biomass burning, aircraft emissions, and volcanic eruptions are prescribed from database provided by the Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (AeroCom) and the latest IPCC inventories

  13. Anomalies on orbifolds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arkani-Hamed, Nima; Cohen, Andrew G.; Georgi, Howard

    2001-03-16

    We discuss the form of the chiral anomaly on an S1/Z2 orbifold with chiral boundary conditions. We find that the 4-divergence of the higher-dimensional current evaluated at a given point in the extra dimension is proportional to the probability of finding the chiral zero mode there. Nevertheless the anomaly, appropriately defined as the five dimensional divergence of the current, lives entirely on the orbifold fixed planes and is independent of the shape of the zero mode. Therefore long distance four dimensional anomaly cancellation ensures the consistency of the higher dimensional orbifold theory.

  14. Coupling of climate models and ice sheet models by surface mass balance gradients: application to the Greenland Ice Sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. Helsen

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available It is notoriously difficult to couple surface mass balance (SMB results from climate models to the changing geometry of an ice sheet model. This problem is traditionally avoided by using only accumulation from a climate model, and parameterizing the meltwater run-off as a function of temperature, which is often related to surface elevation (Hs. In this study, we propose a new strategy to calculate SMB, to allow a direct adjustment of SMB to a change in ice sheet topography and/or a change in climate forcing. This method is based on elevational gradients in the SMB field as computed by a regional climate model. Separate linear relations are derived for ablation and accumulation, using pairs of Hs and SMB within a minimum search radius. The continuously adjusting SMB forcing is consistent with climate model forcing fields, also for initially non-glaciated areas in the peripheral areas of an ice sheet. When applied to an asynchronous coupled ice sheet – climate model setup, this method circumvents traditional temperature lapse rate assumptions. Here we apply it to the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS. Experiments using both steady-state forcing and glacial-interglacial forcing result in realistic ice sheet reconstructions.

  15. Acidification at the Surface in the East Sea: A Coupled Climate-carbon Cycle Model Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Young-Gyu; Seol, Kyung-Hee; Boo, Kyung-On; Lee, Johan; Cho, Chunho; Byun, Young-Hwa; Seo, Seongbong

    2018-05-01

    This modeling study investigates the impacts of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration on acidification in the East Sea. A historical simulation for the past three decades (1980 to 2010) was performed using the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (version 2), a coupled climate model with atmospheric, terrestrial and ocean cycles. As the atmospheric CO2 concentration increased, acidification progressed in the surface waters of the marginal sea. The acidification was similar in magnitude to observations and models of acidification in the global ocean. However, in the global ocean, the acidification appears to be due to increased in-situ oceanic CO2 uptake, whereas local processes had stronger effects in the East Sea. pH was lowered by surface warming and by the influx of water with higher dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the northwestern Pacific. Due to the enhanced advection of DIC, the partial pressure of CO2 increased faster than in the overlying air; consequently, the in-situ oceanic uptake of CO2 decreased.

  16. Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 - Part 1: Greenland (1958-2016)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noël, Brice; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Melchior van Wessem, J.; van Meijgaard, Erik; van As, Dirk; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Kuipers Munneke, Peter; Smeets, C. J. P. Paul; van Ulft, Lambertus H.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

    2018-03-01

    We evaluate modelled Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) near-surface climate, surface energy balance (SEB) and surface mass balance (SMB) from the updated regional climate model RACMO2 (1958-2016). The new model version, referred to as RACMO2.3p2, incorporates updated glacier outlines, topography and ice albedo fields. Parameters in the cloud scheme governing the conversion of cloud condensate into precipitation have been tuned to correct inland snowfall underestimation: snow properties are modified to reduce drifting snow and melt production in the ice sheet percolation zone. The ice albedo prescribed in the updated model is lower at the ice sheet margins, increasing ice melt locally. RACMO2.3p2 shows good agreement compared to in situ meteorological data and point SEB/SMB measurements, and better resolves the spatial patterns and temporal variability of SMB compared with the previous model version, notably in the north-east, south-east and along the K-transect in south-western Greenland. This new model version provides updated, high-resolution gridded fields of the GrIS present-day climate and SMB, and will be used for projections of the GrIS climate and SMB in response to a future climate scenario in a forthcoming study.

  17. Skyrmions and anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rho, M.

    1987-02-01

    The author summarizes the works presented at the meeting on skyrmions and anomalies. He divides the principal issues of this workshop into five categories: QCD effective lagrangians, chiral bags and the Cheshire cat principle, strangeness problem, phenomenology, mathematical structure

  18. Anomaly Detection in Sequences

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We present a set of novel algorithms which we call sequenceMiner, that detect and characterize anomalies in large sets of high-dimensional symbol sequences that...

  19. Kohn anomaly in graphene

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milosevic, I.; Kepcija, N.; Dobardzic, E.; Damnjanovic, M.; Mohr, M.; Maultzsch, J.; Thomsen, C.

    2011-01-01

    Symmetry based analysis of the Kohn anomaly is performed. Kohn phonon frequencies and displacements are calculated by force constant method. It is shown that Kohn phonon vibrations cause electronic band gap opening.

  20. Using isotopes to improve impact and hydrological predictions of land-surface schemes in global climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGuffie, K.; Henderson-Sellers, A.

    2002-01-01

    Global climate model (GCM) predictions of the impact of large-scale land-use change date back to 1984 as do the earliest isotopic studies of large-basin hydrology. Despite this coincidence in interest and geography, with both papers focussed on the Amazon, there have been few studies that have tried to exploit isotopic information with the goal of improving climate model simulations of the land-surface. In this paper we analyze isotopic results from the IAEA global data base specifically with the goal of identifying signatures of potential value for improving global and regional climate model simulations of the land-surface. Evaluation of climate model predictions of the impacts of deforestation of the Amazon has been shown to be of significance by recent results which indicate impacts occurring distant from the Amazon i.e. tele-connections causing climate change elsewhere around the globe. It is suggested that these could be similar in magnitude and extent to the global impacts of ENSO events. Validation of GCM predictions associated with Amazonian deforestation are increasingly urgently required because of the additional effects of other aspects of climate change, particularly synergies occurring between forest removal and greenhouse gas increases, especially CO 2 . Here we examine three decades distributions of deuterium excess across the Amazon and use the results to evaluate the relative importance of the fractionating (partial evaporation) and non-fractionating (transpiration) processes. These results illuminate GCM scenarios of importance to the regional climate and hydrology: (i) the possible impact of increased stomatal resistance in the rainforest caused by higher levels of atmospheric CO2 [4]; and (ii) the consequences of the combined effects of deforestation and global warming on the regions climate and hydrology

  1. Long-term climate change: the evolution of shield surface boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peltier, W.R.

    2007-01-01

    The Earths surface during the Pleistocene epoch has been repeatedly subjected to glacial cycles that have markedly influenced both the landscape and surface boundary conditions that, in part, governed past evolution of deep-seated Shield groundwater flow domains. As part of the Deep Geologic Repository Technology Programme simulations of the last Laurentide glacial episode have been undertaken with the University of Toronto Glacial System Model (GSM). The purpose of these simulations is to yield constrained predictions of the magnitude and time rate of change of peri-glacial, glacial and boreal regimes that have perturbed Shield flow domains in the geologic past. A detailed model of long timescale climate change has been developed, which is able to make useful predictions of the process of continental glaciation and deglaciation that has occurred in the past due to the small changes in the effective intensity of the Sun at the location of the Earth caused by gravitational many body effects in Solar System evolution. Based upon the success of this model we are able to assert that we have demonstrated a basic understanding of why this process has continually recurred in the past on a timescale of approximately 100 000 years. Continuing work with the Glacial Systems Model and efforts to provide explicit linkage to numerical analyses of sub-surface hydrology are beginning to yield a new understanding of groundwater flow system evolution and response to glacial perturbations. In so doing this understanding is not only providing a reasoned basis on which to examine issues of geosphere stability as relevant to the safety of a hypothetical repository for used nuclear fuel in Shield terrain, but is also offering an improved basis for the integrated interpretation of multi-disciplinary geo-scientific data necessary for development of a descriptive geosphere model that is seen as fundamental to the repository Safety Case. (author)

  2. Surface energy exchanges along a tundra-forest transition and feedbacks to climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beringer, J.; Chapin, F. S.; Thompson, Catharine Copass; McGuire, A.D.

    2005-01-01

    Surface energy exchanges were measured in a sequence of five sites representing the major vegetation types in the transition from arctic tundra to forest. This is the major transition in vegetation structure in northern high latitudes. We examined the influence of vegetation structure on the rates of sensible heating and evapotranspiration to assess the potential feedbacks to climate if high-latitude warming were to change the distribution of these vegetation types. Measurements were made at Council on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, at representative tundra, low shrub, tall shrub, woodland (treeline), and boreal forest sites. Structural differences across the transition from tundra to forest included an increase in the leaf area index (LAI) from 0.52 to 2.76, an increase in canopy height from 0.1 to 6.1 m, and a general increase in canopy complexity. These changes in vegetation structure resulted in a decrease in albedo from 0.19 to 0.10 as well as changes to the partitioning of energy at the surface. Bulk surface resistance to water vapor flux remained virtually constant across sites, apparently because the combined soil and moss evaporation decreased while transpiration increased along the transect from tundra to forest. In general, sites became relatively warmer and drier along the transect with the convective fluxes being increasingly dominated by sensible heating, as evident by an increasing Bowen ratio from 0.94 to 1.22. The difference in growing season average daily sensible heating between tundra and forest was 21 W m-2. Fluxes changed non-linearly along the transition, with both shrubs and trees substantially enhancing heat transfer to the atmosphere. These changes in vegetation structure that increase sensible heating could feed back to enhance warming at local to regional scales. The magnitude of these vegetation effects on potential high-latitude warming is two to three times greater than suggested by previous modeling studies. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All

  3. Algebraic structure of chiral anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stora, R.

    1985-09-01

    I will describe first the algebraic aspects of chiral anomalies, exercising however due care about the topological delicacies. I will illustrate the structure and methods in the context of gauge anomalies and will eventually make contact with results obtained from index theory. I will go into two sorts of generalizations: on the one hand, generalizing the algebraic set up yields e.g. gravitational and mixed gauge anomalies, supersymmetric gauge anomalies, anomalies in supergravity theories; on the other hand most constructions applied to the cohomologies which characterize anomalies easily extend to higher cohomologies. Section II is devoted to a description of the general set up as it applies to gauge anomalies. Section III deals with a number of algebraic set ups which characterize more general types of anomalies: gravitational and mixed gauge anomalies, supersymmetric gauge anomalies, anomalies in supergravity theories. It also includes brief remarks on σ models and a reminder on the full BRST algebra of quantized gauge theories

  4. Anomalies and gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mielke, Eckehard W.

    2006-01-01

    Anomalies in Yang-Mills type gauge theories of gravity are reviewed. Particular attention is paid to the relation between the Dirac spin, the axial current j5 and the non-covariant gauge spin C. Using diagrammatic techniques, we show that only generalizations of the U(1)- Pontrjagin four-form F and F = dC arise in the chiral anomaly, even when coupled to gravity. Implications for Ashtekar's canonical approach to quantum gravity are discussed

  5. Fivebrane gravitational anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, Katrin; Becker, Melanie

    2000-01-01

    Freed, Harvey, Minasian and Moore (FHMM) have proposed a mechanism to cancel the gravitational anomaly of the M-theory fivebrane coming from diffeomorphisms acting on the normal bundle. This procedure is based on a modification of the conventional M-theory Chern-Simons term. We apply the FHMM mechanism in the ten-dimensional type IIA theory. We then analyze the relation to the anomaly cancellation mechanism for the type IIA fivebrane proposed by Witten

  6. Mid-Piacenzian Variability of Nordic Seas Surface Circulation Linked to Terrestrial Climatic Change in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panitz, Sina; De Schepper, Stijn; Salzmann, Ulrich; Bachem, Paul E.; Risebrobakken, Bjørg; Clotten, Caroline; Hocking, Emma P.

    2017-12-01

    During the mid-Piacenzian, Nordic Seas sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were higher than today. While SSTs provide crucial climatic information, on their own they do not allow a reconstruction of potential underlying changes in water masses and currents. A new dinoflagellate cyst record for Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 642 is presented to evaluate changes in northward heat transport via the Norwegian Atlantic Current (NwAC) between 3.320 and 3.137 Ma. The record is compared with vegetation and SST reconstructions from Site 642 and SSTs from Iceland Sea ODP Site 907 to identify links between SSTs, ocean currents, and vegetation changes. The dinocyst record shows that strong Atlantic water influence via the NwAC corresponds to higher-than-present SSTs and cool temperate vegetation during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) transition M2-M1 and KM5. Reduced Atlantic water inflow relative to the warm stages coincides with near-modern SSTs and boreal vegetation during MIS M2, KM6, and KM4-KM2. During most of the studied interval, a strong SST gradient between Sites 642 and 907 indicates the presence of a proto-Arctic Front (AF). An absent gradient during the first half of MIS KM6, due to reduced Atlantic water influence at Site 642 and warm, presumably Atlantic water reaching Site 907, is indicative of a weakened NwAC and East Greenland Current. We conclude that repeated changes in Atlantic water influence directly affect terrestrial climate and that an active NwAC is needed for an AF to develop. Obliquity forcing may have played a role, but the correlation is not consistent.

  7. Estimating Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fettweis, X.; Franco, B.; Tedesco, M.; van Angelen, J.H.; Lenaerts, J.T.M.; van den Broeke, M.R.; Gallee, H

    2012-01-01

    We report future projections of Surface Mass Balance (SMB) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) obtained with the regional climate model MAR, forced by the outputs of three CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) when considering two different warming scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The GCMs

  8. Dependence of Arctic climate on the latitudinal position of stationary waves and to high-latitudes surface warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Yechul; Kang, Sarah M.; Watanabe, Masahiro

    2017-12-01

    Previous studies suggest large uncertainties in the stationary wave response under global warming. Here, we investigate how the Arctic climate responds to changes in the latitudinal position of stationary waves, and to high-latitudes surface warming that mimics the effect of Arctic sea ice loss under global warming. To generate stationary waves in an atmospheric model coupled to slab ocean, a series of experiments is performed where the thermal forcing with a zonal wavenumber-2 (with zero zonal-mean) is prescribed at the surface at different latitude bands in the Northern Hemisphere. When the stationary waves are generated in the subtropics, the cooling response dominates over the warming response in the lower troposphere due to cloud radiative effects. Then, the low-level baroclinicity is reduced in the subtropics, which gives rise to a poleward shift of the eddy driven jet, thereby inducing substantial cooling in the northern high latitudes. As the stationary waves are progressively generated at higher latitudes, the zonal-mean climate state gradually becomes more similar to the integration with no stationary waves. These differences in the mean climate affect the Arctic climate response to high-latitudes surface warming. Additional surface heating over the Arctic is imposed to the reference climates in which the stationary waves are located at different latitude bands. When the stationary waves are positioned at lower latitudes, the eddy driven jet is located at higher latitude, closer to the prescribed Arctic heating. As baroclinicity is more effectively perturbed, the jet shifts more equatorward that accompanies a larger reduction in the poleward eddy transport of heat and momentum. A stronger eddy-induced descending motion creates greater warming over the Arctic. Our study calls for a more accurate simulation of the present-day stationary wave pattern to enhance the predictability of the Arctic warming response in a changing climate.

  9. The Holographic Weyl anomaly

    CERN Document Server

    Henningson, M; Henningson, Mans; Skenderis, Kostas

    1998-01-01

    We calculate the Weyl anomaly for conformal field theories that can be described via the adS/CFT correspondence. This entails regularizing the gravitational part of the corresponding supergravity action in a manner consistent with general covariance. Up to a constant, the anomaly only depends on the dimension d of the manifold on which the conformal field theory is defined. We present concrete expressions for the anomaly in the physically relevant cases d = 2, 4 and 6. In d = 2 we find for the central charge c = 3 l/ 2 G_N in agreement with considerations based on the asymptotic symmetry algebra of adS_3. In d = 4 the anomaly agrees precisely with that of the corresponding N = 4 superconformal SU(N) gauge theory. The result in d = 6 provides new information for the (0, 2) theory, since its Weyl anomaly has not been computed previously. The anomaly in this case grows as N^3, where N is the number of coincident M5 branes, and it vanishes for a Ricci-flat background.

  10. High-resolution climate and land surface interactions modeling over Belgium: current state and decennial scale projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquemin, Ingrid; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; Beckers, Veronique; Berckmans, Julie; Debusscher, Bos; Dury, Marie; Minet, Julien; Hamdi, Rafiq; Dendoncker, Nicolas; Tychon, Bernard; Hambuckers, Alain; François, Louis

    2016-04-01

    The interactions between land surface and climate are complex. Climate changes can affect ecosystem structure and functions, by altering photosynthesis and productivity or inducing thermal and hydric stresses on plant species. These changes then impact socio-economic systems, through e.g., lower farming or forestry incomes. Ultimately, it can lead to permanent changes in land use structure, especially when associated with other non-climatic factors, such as urbanization pressure. These interactions and changes have feedbacks on the climate systems, in terms of changing: (1) surface properties (albedo, roughness, evapotranspiration, etc.) and (2) greenhouse gas emissions (mainly CO2, CH4, N2O). In the framework of the MASC project (« Modelling and Assessing Surface Change impacts on Belgian and Western European climate »), we aim at improving regional climate model projections at the decennial scale over Belgium and Western Europe by combining high-resolution models of climate, land surface dynamics and socio-economic processes. The land surface dynamics (LSD) module is composed of a dynamic vegetation model (CARAIB) calculating the productivity and growth of natural and managed vegetation, and an agent-based model (CRAFTY), determining the shifts in land use and land cover. This up-scaled LSD module is made consistent with the surface scheme of the regional climate model (RCM: ALARO) to allow simulations of the RCM with a fully dynamic land surface for the recent past and the period 2000-2030. In this contribution, we analyze the results of the first simulations performed with the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model over Belgium at a resolution of 1km. This analysis is performed at the species level, using a set of 17 species for natural vegetation (trees and grasses) and 10 crops, especially designed to represent the Belgian vegetation. The CARAIB model is forced with surface atmospheric variables derived from the monthly global CRU climatology or ALARO outputs

  11. GRAVITY ANOMALIES OF THE MOON

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. G. Pugacheva

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The source of gravity anomalies of the Moon are large mascons with a high mass concentration at a depth of volcanic plains and lunar Maria. New data on the gravitational field of the Moon were obtained from two Grail spacecrafts. The article presents the data of physical and mechanical properties of the surface soil layer of the lunar Maria and gives an assessment of the chemical composition of the soil. There have been calculated heterogeneity parameters of the surface macro-relief of the lunar Maria: albedo, soil density, average grain diameter of the particles forming the surface layer and the volume fraction occupied by particles. It can be assumed that mascons include rich KREEP rocks with a high content of thorium and iron oxide. Formation of mascons is connected with intensive development of basaltic volcanism on the Moon in the early periods of its existence.

  12. Climate Change Impacts on Projections of Excess Mortality at 2030 using Spatially-Varying Ozone-Temperature Risk Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Ander; Reich, Brian J.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Spero, Tanya L.; Hubbell, Bryan; Rappold, Ana G.

    2017-01-01

    We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995–2005) and near-future (2025–2035) time period while incorporating a nonlinear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate nonlinear, spatially-varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observed data. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 ppb (moderate level) and 75 ppb (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 ppb and 1.94°F; however, the results varied by region. Increases in ozone due to climate change result in an increase in ozone-mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 ppb increases by 7.7% (1.6%, 14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 ppb increases by 14.2% (1.6%, 28.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels. PMID:27005744

  13. Impact of catchment geophysical characteristics and climate on the regional variability of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in surface water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cool, Geneviève; Lebel, Alexandre; Sadiq, Rehan; Rodriguez, Manuel J

    2014-08-15

    Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is a recognized indicator of natural organic matter (NOM) in surface waters. The aim of this paper is twofold: to evaluate the impact of geophysical characteristics, climate and ecological zones on DOC concentrations in surface waters and, to develop a statistical model to estimate the regional variability of these concentrations. In this study, multilevel statistical analysis was used to achieve three specific objectives: (1) evaluate the influence of climate and geophysical characteristics on DOC concentrations in surface waters; (2) compare the influence of geophysical characteristics and ecological zones on DOC concentrations in surface waters; and (3) develop a model to estimate the most accurate DOC concentrations in surface waters. The case study involved 115 catchments from surface waters in the Province of Quebec, Canada. Results showed that mean temperatures recorded 60 days prior to sampling, total precipitation 10 days prior to sampling and percentages of wetlands, coniferous forests and mixed forests have a significant positive influence on DOC concentrations in surface waters. The catchment mean slope had a significant negative influence on DOC concentrations in surface waters. Water type (lake or river) and deciduous forest variables were not significant. The ecological zones had a significant influence on DOC concentrations. However, geophysical characteristics (wetlands, forests and slope) estimated DOC concentrations more accurately. A model describing the variability of DOC concentrations was developed and can be used, in future research, for estimating DBPs in drinking water as well evaluating the impact of climate change on the quality of surface waters and drinking water. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Impact of highway construction on land surface energy balance and local climate derived from LANDSAT satellite data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nedbal, Václav; Brom, Jakub

    2018-08-15

    Extensive construction of highways has a major impact on the landscape and its structure. They can also influence local climate and heat fluxes in the surrounding area. After the removal of vegetation due to highway construction, the amount of solar radiation energy used for plant evapotranspiration (latent heat flux) decreases, bringing about an increase in landscape surface temperature, changing the local climate and increasing surface run-off. In this study, we evaluated the impact of the D8 highway construction (Central Bohemia, Czech Republic) on the distribution of solar radiation energy into the various heat fluxes (latent, sensible and ground heat flux) and related surface functional parameters (surface temperature and surface wetness). The aim was to describe the severity of the impact and the distance from the actual highway in which it can be observed. LANDSAT multispectral satellite images and field meteorological measurements were used to calculate surface functional parameters and heat balance before and during the highway construction. Construction of a four-lane highway can influence the heat balance of the landscape surface as far as 90m in the perpendicular direction from the highway axis, i.e. up to 75m perpendicular from its edge. During a summer day, the decrease in evapotranspired water can reach up to 43.7m 3 per highway kilometre. This means a reduced cooling effect, expressed as the decrease in latent heat flux, by an average of 29.7MWh per day per highway kilometre and its surroundings. The loss of the cooling ability of the land surface by evaporation can lead to a rise in surface temperature by as much as 7°C. Thus, the results indicate the impact of extensive line constructions on the local climate. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

    2011-02-15

    Controversy continues to prevail concerning the reality of anthropogenically-induced climatic warming. One of the principal issues is the cause of the hiatus in the current global warming trend. There appears to be a widely held view that climatic change warming should exhibit an inexorable upwards trend, a view that implies there is no longer any input by climatic variability in the existing climatic system. The relative roles of climatic change and climatic variability are examined here using the same coupled global climatic model. For the former, the model is run using a specified CO{sub 2} growth scenario, while the latter consisted of a multi-millennial simulation where any climatic variability was attributable solely to internal processes within the climatic system. It is shown that internal climatic variability can produce global mean surface temperature anomalies of {+-}0.25 K and sustained positive and negative anomalies sufficient to account for the anomalous warming of the 1940s as well as the present hiatus in the observed global warming. The characteristics of the internally-induced negative temperature anomalies are such that if this internal natural variability is the cause of the observed hiatus, then a resumption of the observed global warming trend is to be expected within the next few years. (orig.)

  16. Coccolithophore response to climate and surface hydrography in Santa Barbara Basin, California, AD 1917–2004

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Grelaud

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The varved sedimentary AD 1917–2004 record from the depositional center of the Santa Barbara Basin (SBB, California was analyzed with monthly to triannual resolution to yield relative abundances of six coccolithophore species representing at least 96% of the coccolithophore assemblage. Seasonal/annual relative abundances respond to climatic and surface hydrographic conditions in the SBB, whereby (i the three species G. oceanica, H. carteri and F. profunda are characteristic of the strength of the northward flowing warm California Counter Current, (ii the two species G. ericsonii and G. muellerae are associated with the cold equatorward flowing California Current, (iii and E. huxleyi appears to be endemic to the SBB. Spectral analyses on relative abundances of these species show that all are influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO and/or by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO. Increased relative abundances of G. oceanica and H. carteri are associated with warm ENSO events, G. muellerae responds to warm PDO events and the abundance of G. ericsonii increases during cold PDO events. Morphometric parameters measured on E. huxleyi, G. muellerae and G. oceanica indicate increasing coccolithophore shell carbonate mass from ~1917 until 2004 concomitant with rising pCO2 and sea surface temperature in the region of the SBB.

  17. Modeled effects of irrigation on surface climate in the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xuezhen; Xiong, Zhe; Tang, Qiuhong

    2017-08-01

    In Northwest China, water originates from the mountain area and is largely used for irrigation agriculture in the middle reaches. This study investigates the local and remote impact of irrigation on regional climate in the Heihe River Basin, the second largest inland river basin in Northwest China. An irrigation scheme was developed and incorporated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Noah-MP land surface scheme (WRF/Noah-MP). The effects of irrigation is assessed by comparing the model simulations with and without consideration of irrigation (hereafter, IRRG and NATU simulations, respectively) for five growth seasons (May to September) from 2009 to 2013. As consequences of irrigation, daily mean temperature decreased by 1.7°C and humidity increased by 2.3 g kg-1 (corresponding to 38.5%) over irrigated area. The temperature and humidity of IRRG simulation matched well with the observations, whereas NATU simulation overestimated temperature and underestimated humidity over irrigated area. The effects on temperature and humidity are generally small outside the irrigated area. The cooling and wetting effects have opposing impacts on convective precipitation, resulting in a negligible change in localized precipitation over irrigated area. However, irrigation may induce water vapor convergence and enhance precipitation remotely in the southeastern portion of the Heihe River Basin.

  18. Observations of climate, albedo, and surface radiation over cleared and undisturbed Amazonian forest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bastable, H.G.; Shuttleworth, W.J.; Dallarosa, R.L.G.; Fisch, G.; Nobre, C.A.

    1993-01-01

    Measurements from the first comparative study of climate over Amazonian tropical forest and an embedded deforested clearing are presented. Observations comprise a continuous 60-day run of data from mid-October to mid-December 1990, covering the end of the dry season and the beginning of the wet season. Mean hourly observations are calculated for the whole period; and for two 10-day periods, one in the dry season and one at the start of the wet season. Much greater variation in weather variables was observed at the clearing compared with over the forest. While the mean values of temperature and specific humidity deficit differed by less than 1°C and 1 g kg −1 respectively, their daily ranges at the clearing were twice those at the forest. Mean daily albedo of the forest was 13.1 per cent, agreeing well with other tropical forest measurements, and of the clearing was 16.3 per cent, somewhat lower than the values currently being used in GCMs. The surface energy balance was investigated and mean available energy calculated for each site. The significant difference in the daily pattern of net radiation between the sites was found to be at least as much due to differences in the longwave radiation balance as to differences in albedo. The diurnal pattern of net radiation therefore changed between dry and wet periods as the higher plant water stress experienced by clearing vegetation altered the daily temperature cycle

  19. Response of faults to climate-driven changes in ice and water volumes on Earth's surface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hampel, Andrea; Hetzel, Ralf; Maniatis, Georgios

    2010-05-28

    Numerical models including one or more faults in a rheologically stratified lithosphere show that climate-induced variations in ice and water volumes on Earth's surface considerably affect the slip evolution of both thrust and normal faults. In general, the slip rate and hence the seismicity of a fault decreases during loading and increases during unloading. Here, we present several case studies to show that a postglacial slip rate increase occurred on faults worldwide in regions where ice caps and lakes decayed at the end of the last glaciation. Of note is that the postglacial amplification of seismicity was not restricted to the areas beneath the large Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets but also occurred in regions affected by smaller ice caps or lakes, e.g. the Basin-and-Range Province. Our results do not only have important consequences for the interpretation of palaeoseismological records from faults in these regions but also for the evaluation of the future seismicity in regions currently affected by deglaciation like Greenland and Antarctica: shrinkage of the modern ice sheets owing to global warming may ultimately lead to an increase in earthquake frequency in these regions.

  20. Surface radiation changes and their impact on climate in Central Europe[Dissertation 17578

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruckstuhl, Ch.

    2008-07-01

    The rapid temperature increase of 0.7 {sup o}C averaged over the Northern Hemisphere and of 1 {sup o}C over mainland Europe since 1980 is considerably larger than expected from anthropogenic greenhouse warming. The present thesis addresses questions like whether this rapid climate change is due to unexpected large greenhouse forcing that includes strong water vapor feedback or whether the temperature rise is strengthened by an increase in shortwave radiation fluxes observed since the mid-1980s. Solar dimming, a decrease of solar radiation measured at the Earth's surface, has been observed during several decades before the 1980s. Since then a reversed trend with increasing solar radiation has been observed. Our investigations show that this solar brightening has apparently added to the temperature rise since the 1980s. The analyses give evidence for a substantial decline in aerosol concentrations over Europe, which has led to a significant increase of solar radiation reaching the ground. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations at six remote locations from the Baltic Sea to the Central Alps show a decrease in AOD by up to 63 percent from 1986 to 2005. Solar radiation, concurrently measured under cloud-free skies and averaged over eight German and twenty-five Swiss radiation stations below 1000 m a.s.l., shows a statistically significant increase of +1.15 [+0.68 to +1.62] W m{sup -2} dec {sup -1} between 1981 and 2005. Hence, the direct aerosol effect is clearly measured. On the other hand, all-sky solar radiation shows a statistically significant increase only due to the extraordinary year 2003, with its strongly reduced cloud amount. Without considering the year 2003, which has only a marginal impact on the temperature trends, the increase in solar radiation due to changes in clouds is +0.78 [-1.26 to +2.82] W m{sup -2} dec {sup -1}. This shortwave cloud forcing is further reduced due to the counterbalancing longwave cloud effect. With respect to climate

  1. Our changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kandel, R.

    1990-01-01

    The author presents an overview of the changing climate. Attention is focused on the following: meteorology; weather; climate anomalies; changes in atmospheric composition and global warming; ozone; mathematical models; and climate and politics. In its conclusion, it asks researchers to stay out of a game in which, ultimately, neither science nor politics stands to gain anything

  2. Atmospheric circulation in regional climate models over Central Europe: links to surface air temperature and the influence of driving data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Plavcová, Eva; Kyselý, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 39, 7-8 (2012), s. 1681-1695 ISSN 0930-7575 R&D Project s: GA ČR GAP209/10/2265 Grant - others:ENSEMBLES: EU-FP6(XE) 505539 Program:FP6 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : Regional climate models * Global climate models * Atmospheric circulation * Surface air temperature * ENSEMBLES * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 4.231, year: 2012 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-011-1278-8#

  3. RARE BRANCHIAL ARCH ANOMALIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jayanta Kumar

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available AIM Amongst the branchial arch anomalies third arch anomaly occurs rarely and more so the fourth arch anomalies. We present our experience with cases of rare branchial arch anomalies. PATIENTS AND METHODS From June 2006 to January 2016, cases having their external opening in the lower third of sternocleidomastoid muscle with the tract going through thyroid gland and directing to pyriform sinus (PFS or cysts with internal opening in the PFS were studied. RESULTS No fourth arch anomaly was encountered. One cyst with internal opening which later on formed a fistula, three fistulae from beginning and two sinuses were encountered. The main stay of diagnosis was the fistula in the PFS and the tract lying posterior to the internal carotid artery. Simple excision technique with a small incision around the external opening was done. There was no recurrence. CONCLUSION Third arch fistula is not very rare as it was thought. Internal fistula is found in most of the cases. Though radiological investigations are helpful, fistulae can be diagnosed clinically and during operation. Extensive operation of the neck, mediastinum and pharynx is not required.

  4. Satellite magnetic anomalies of the Antarctic crust

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. E. Alsdorf

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available Spatially and temporally static crustal magnetic anomalies are contaminated by static core field effects above spherical harmonic degree 12 and dynamic, large-amplitude external fields. To extract crustal magnetic anomalies from the measurements of NASA's Magsat mission, we separate crustal signals from both core and external field effects. In particular, we define Magsat anomalies relative to the degree 11 field and use spectral correlation theory to reduce them for external field effects. We obtain a model of Antarctic crustal thickness by comparing the region's terrain gravity effects to free-air gravity anomalies derived from the Earth Gravity Model 1996 (EGM96. To separate core and crustal magnetic effects, we obtain the pseudo-magnetic effect of the crustal thickness variations from their gravity effect via Poisson's theorem for correlative potentials. We compare the pseudo-magnetic effect of the crustal thickness variations to field differences between degrees 11 and 13 by spectral correlation analysis. We thus identify and remove possible residual core field effects in the Magsat anomalies relative to the degree 11 core field. The resultant anomalies reflect possible Antarctic contrasts due both to crustal thickness and intracrustal variations of magnetization. In addition, they provide important constraints on the geologic interpretation of aeromagnetic survey data, such as are available for the Weddell Province. These crustal anomalies also may be used to correct for long wavelength errors in regional compilations of near-surface magnetic survey data. However, the validity of these applications is limited by the poor quality of the Antarctic Magsat data that were obtained during austral Summer and Fall when south polar external field activity was maximum. Hence an important test and supplement for the Antarctic crustal Magsat anomaly map will be provided by the data from the recently launched Ørsted mission, which will yield coverage

  5. On the origin of multidecadal to centennial Greenland temperature anomalies over the past 800 yr

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Kobashi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The surface temperature of the Greenland ice sheet is among the most important climate variables for assessing how climate change may impact human societies due to its association with sea level rise. However, the causes of multidecadal-to-centennial temperature changes in Greenland temperatures are not well understood, largely owing to short observational records. To examine these, we calculated the Greenland temperature anomalies (GTA[G-NH] over the past 800 yr by subtracting the standardized northern hemispheric (NH temperature from the standardized Greenland temperature. This decomposes the Greenland temperature variation into background climate (NH; polar amplification; and regional variability (GTA[G-NH]. The central Greenland polar amplification factor as expressed by the variance ratio Greenland/NH is 2.6 over the past 161 yr, and 3.3–4.2 over the past 800 yr. The GTA[G-NH] explains 31–35% of the variation of Greenland temperature in the multidecadal-to-centennial time scale over the past 800 yr. We found that the GTA[G-NH] has been influenced by solar-induced changes in atmospheric circulation patterns such as those produced by the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO. Climate modeling and proxy temperature records indicate that the anomaly is also likely linked to solar-paced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC and associated changes in northward oceanic heat transport.

  6. On the Origin of Multidecadal to Centennial Greenland Temperature Anomalies Over the Past 800 yr

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobashi, T.; Shindell, D. T.; Kodera, K.; Box, J. E.; Nakaegawa, T.; Kawamura, K.

    2013-01-01

    The surface temperature of the Greenland ice sheet is among the most important climate variables for assessing how climate change may impact human societies due to its association with sea level rise. However, the causes of multidecadal-to-centennial temperature changes in Greenland temperatures are not well understood, largely owing to short observational records. To examine these, we calculated the Greenland temperature anomalies (GTA[G-NH]) over the past 800 yr by subtracting the standardized northern hemispheric (NH) temperature from the standardized Greenland temperature. This decomposes the Greenland temperature variation into background climate (NH); polar amplification; and regional variability (GTA[G-NH]). The central Greenland polar amplification factor as expressed by the variance ratio Greenland/NH is 2.6 over the past 161 yr, and 3.3-4.2 over the past 800 yr. The GTA[G-NH] explains 31-35%of the variation of Greenland temperature in the multidecadal-to-centennial time scale over the past 800 yr. We found that the GTA[G-NH] has been influenced by solar-induced changes in atmospheric circulation patterns such as those produced by the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO). Climate modeling and proxy temperature records indicate that the anomaly is also likely linked to solar-paced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and associated changes in northward oceanic heat transport.

  7. The Amazon rainforest, climate change, and drought: How will what is below the surface affect the climate of tropical South America?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, A.; Denning, A. S.; Baker, I.; Randall, D.; Dazlich, D.

    2008-12-01

    Several climate models have predicted an increase in long-term droughts in tropical South America due to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Although the Amazon rainforest is resilient to seasonal drought, multi-year droughts pose a definite problem for the ecosystem's health. Furthermore, drought- stressed vegetation participates in feedbacks with the atmosphere that can exacerbate drought. Namely, reduced evapotranspiration further dries out the atmosphere and affects the regional climate. Trees in the rainforest survive seasonal drought by using deep roots to access adequate stores of soil moisture. We investigate the climatic impacts of deep roots and soil moisture by coupling the Simple Biosphere (SiB3) model to Colorado State University's general circulation model (BUGS5). We compare two versions of SiB3 in the GCM during years with anomalously low rainfall. The first has strong vegetative stress due to soil moisture limitations. The second experiences less stress and has more realistic representations of surface biophysics. In the model, basin-wide reductions in soil moisture stress result in increased evapotranspiration, precipitation, and moisture recycling in the Amazon basin. In the savannah region of southeastern Brazil, the unstressed version of SiB3 produces decreased precipitation and weaker moisture flux, which is more in-line with observations. The improved simulation of precipitation and evaporation also produces a more realistic Bolivian high and Nordeste low. These changes highlight the importance of subsurface biophysics for the Amazonian climate. The presence of deep roots and soil moisture will become even more important if climate change brings more frequent droughts to this region in the future.

  8. The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, P.; Joshi, M.; Dimri, A. P.; Turner, A. G.

    2018-06-01

    The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during June to September. Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of the monsoon circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind-stress curl, and ocean upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon intraseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet.

  9. The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, P.; Joshi, M.; Dimri, A. P.; Turner, A. G.

    2017-08-01

    The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during June to September. Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of the monsoon circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind-stress curl, and ocean upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon intraseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet.

  10. A virtual climate library of surface temperature over North America for 1979–2015

    OpenAIRE

    Kravtsov, Sergey; Roebber, Paul; Brazauskas, Vytaras

    2017-01-01

    The most comprehensive continuous-coverage modern climatic data sets, known as reanalyses, come from combining state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with diverse available observations. These reanalysis products estimate the path of climate evolution that actually happened, and their use in a probabilistic context—for example, to document trends in extreme events in response to climate change—is, therefore, limited. Free runs of NWP models without data assimilation can in...

  11. Properties of the surface snow in Princess Elizabeth Land, East Antarctica - climate and non-climate dependent variability of the surface mass balance and stable water isotopic composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vladimirova, D.; Ekaykin, A.; Lipenkov, V.; Popov, S. V.; Petit, J. R.; Masson-Delmotte, V.

    2017-12-01

    Glaciological and meteorological observations conducted during the past four decades in Princess Elizabeth Land, East Antarctica, are compiled. The database is used to investigate spatial patterns of surface snow isotopic composition and surface mass balance, including detailed information near subglacial lake Vostok. We show diverse relationships between snow isotopic composition and surface temperature. In the most inland part (elevation 3200-3400 m a.s.l.), surface snow isotopic composition varies independently from surface temperature, and is closely related to the distance to the open water source (with a slope of 0.98±0.17 ‰ per 100 km). Surface mass balance values are higher along the ice sheet slope, and relatively evenly distributed inland. The minimum values of snow isotopic composition and surface mass balance are identified in an area XX km southwestward from Vostok station. The spatial distribution of deuterium excess delineates regions influenced by the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean air masses, with Vostok area being situated close to their boundary. Anomalously high deuterium excess values are observed near Dome A, suggesting high kinetic fractionation for its moisture source, or specifically high post-deposition artifacts. The dataset is available for further studies such as the assessment of skills of general circulation or regional atmospheric models, and the search for the oldest ice.

  12. Response of the Adriatic Sea to the atmospheric anomaly in 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Grbec

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Unusual weather conditions over the southern Europe and the Mediterranean area in 2003 significantly impacted the oceanographic properties of the Adriatic Sea. To document these changes, both in the atmosphere and the sea, anomalies from the normal climate were calculated. The winter 2003 was extremely cold, whereas the spring/summer period was extremely warm. The air temperature in June was more than 3 standard deviations above the average. On the other hand, precipitation and river runoff were extremely low between February and August. The response of the sea was remarkable, especially in surface salinity during spring and summer, with values at least one standard deviation above the average. Analysis of thermohaline properties in the middle Adriatic showed the importance of two phenomena responsible for the occurrence of exceptionally high salinity: (1 enhanced inflow of saline Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW in the Adriatic, and (2 extremely low precipitation and river runoff, accompanied with strong evaporation. Two large-scale atmospheric indices: NAOI (North Atlantic Oscillation Index and MOI (Mediterranean Oscillation Index, although generally correlated to the Adriatic climate, failed to describe anomalies in 2003. The air pressure gradients used for the definition of both indices significantly decreased in 2003 due to the presence of the high pressure areas over most of Europe and the northern Atlantic, and were actually responsible for the observed anomalies above and in the Adriatic.

  13. Low Risk Anomalies?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schneider, Paul; Wagner, Christian; Zechner, Josef

    . Empirically, we find that option-implied ex-ante skewness is strongly related to ex-post residual coskewness and alphas. Beta- and volatility-based low risk anomalies are largely driven by a single principal component, which is in turn largely explained by skewness. Controlling for skewness renders the alphas......This paper shows that stocks' CAPM alphas are negatively related to CAPM betas if investors demand compensation for negative skewness. Thus, high (low) beta stocks appear to underperform (outperform). This apparent anomaly merely reflects compensation for residual coskewness ignored by the CAPM...... of betting-against-beta and -volatility insignificant....

  14. Positively deflected anomaly mediation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okada, Nobuchika

    2002-01-01

    We generalize the so-called 'deflected anomaly mediation' scenario to the case where threshold corrections of heavy messengers to the sparticle squared masses are positive. A concrete model realizing this scenario is also presented. The tachyonic slepton problem can be fixed with only a pair of messengers. The resultant sparticle mass spectrum is quite different from that in the conventional deflected anomaly mediation scenario, but is similar to the one in the gauge mediation scenario. The lightest sparticle is mostly B-ino

  15. Congenital laryngeal anomalies,

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. Rutter

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: It is essential for clinicians to understand issues relevant to the airway management of infants and to be cognizant of the fact that infants with congenital laryngeal anomalies are at particular risk for an unstable airway. Objectives: To familiarize clinicians with issues relevant to the airway management of infants and to present a succinct description of the diagnosis and management of an array of congenital laryngeal anomalies. Methods: Revision article, in which the main aspects concerning airway management of infants will be analyzed. Conclusions: It is critical for clinicians to understand issues relevant to the airway management of infants.

  16. The Modern Near-Surface Martian Climate: A Review of In-Situ Meteorological Data from Viking to Curiosity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, G. M.; Newman, C. N.; De Vicente-Retortillo, A.; Fischer, E.; Renno, N. O.; Richardson, M. I.; Fairén, A. G.; Genzer, M.; Guzewich, S. D.; Haberle, R. M.; hide

    2017-01-01

    We analyze the complete set of in-situ meteorological data obtained from the Viking landers in the 1970s to todays Curiosity rover to review our understanding of the modern near-surface climate of Mars, with focus on the dust, CO2 and H2O cycles and their impact on the radiative and thermodynamic conditions near the surface. In particular, we provide values of the highest confidence possible for atmospheric opacity, atmospheric pressure, near-surface air temperature, ground temperature, near-surface wind speed and direction, and near-surface air relative humidity and water vapor content. Then, we study the diurnal, seasonal and interannual variability of these quantities over a span of more than twenty Martian years. Finally, we propose measurements to improve our understanding of the Martian dust and H2O cycles, and discuss the potential for liquid water formation under Mars present day conditions and its implications for future Mars missions.

  17. Heat flow anomalies and their interpretation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, David S.; Rybach, Ladislaus

    1985-12-01

    More than 10,000 heat flow determinations exist for the earth and the data set is growing steadily at about 450 observations per year. If heat flow is considered as a surface expression of geothermal processes at depth, the analysis of the data set should reveal properties of those thermal processes. They do, but on a variety of scales. For this review heat flow maps are classified by 4 different horizontal scales of 10 n km (n = 1, 2, 3 and 4) and attention is focussed on the interpretation of anomalies which appear with characteristic dimensions of 10 (n - 1) km in the respective representations. The largest scale of 10 4 km encompasses heat flow on a global scale. Global heat loss is 4 × 10 13 W and the process of sea floor spreading is the principal agent in delivering much of this heat to the surface. Correspondingly, active ocean ridge systems produce the most prominent heat flow anomalies at this scale with characteristic widths of 10 3 km. Shields, with similar dimensions, exhibit negative anomalies. The scale of 10 3 km includes continent wide displays. Heat flow patterns at this scale mimic tectonic units which have dimensions of a few times 10 2 km, although the thermal boundaries between these units are sometimes sharp. Heat flow anomalies at this scale also result from plate tectonic processes, and are associated with arc volcanism, back arc basins, hot spot traces, and continental rifting. There are major controversies about the extent to which these surface thermal provinces reflect upper mantle thermal conditions, and also about the origin and evolution of the thermal state of continental lithosphere. Beginning with map dimensions of 10 2 km thermal anomalies of scale 10 1 km, which have a definite crustal origin, become apparent. The origin may be tectonic, geologic, or hydrologic. Ten kilometers is a common wavelength of topographic relief which drives many groundwater flow systems producing thermal anomalies. The largest recognized continental

  18. Projected Changes on the Global Surface Wave Drift Climate towards the END of the Twenty-First Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrasco, Ana; Semedo, Alvaro; Behrens, Arno; Weisse, Ralf; Breivik, Øyvind; Saetra, Øyvind; Håkon Christensen, Kai

    2016-04-01

    The global wave-induced current (the Stokes Drift - SD) is an important feature of the ocean surface, with mean values close to 10 cm/s along the extra-tropical storm tracks in both hemispheres. Besides the horizontal displacement of large volumes of water the SD also plays an important role in the ocean mix-layer turbulence structure, particularly in stormy or high wind speed areas. The role of the wave-induced currents in the ocean mix-layer and in the sea surface temperature (SST) is currently a hot topic of air-sea interaction research, from forecast to climate ranges. The SD is mostly driven by wind sea waves and highly sensitive to changes in the overlaying wind speed and direction. The impact of climate change in the global wave-induced current climate will be presented. The wave model WAM has been forced by the global climate model (GCM) ECHAM5 wind speed (at 10 m height) and ice, for present-day and potential future climate conditions towards the end of the end of the twenty-first century, represented by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) CMIP3 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 3) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario (usually referred to as a ''medium-high emissions'' scenario). Several wave parameters were stored as output in the WAM model simulations, including the wave spectra. The 6 hourly and 0.5°×0.5°, temporal and space resolution, wave spectra were used to compute the SD global climate of two 32-yr periods, representative of the end of the twentieth (1959-1990) and twenty-first (1969-2100) centuries. Comparisons of the present climate run with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-40 reanalysis are used to assess the capability of the WAM-ECHAM5 runs to produce realistic SD results. This study is part of the WRCP-JCOMM COWCLIP (Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project) effort.

  19. The role of local sea surface temperature pattern changes in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hand, Ralf; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Bader, Jürgen; Greatbatch, Richard J.

    2018-03-01

    Beside its global effects, climate change is manifested in many regionally pronounced features mainly resulting from changes in the oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Here we investigate the influence of the North Atlantic SST on shaping the winter-time response to global warming. Our results are based on a long-term climate projection with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to investigate the influence of North Atlantic sea surface temperature pattern changes on shaping the atmospheric climate change signal. In sensitivity experiments with the model's atmospheric component we decompose the response into components controlled by the local SST structure and components controlled by global/remote changes. MPI-ESM simulates a global warming response in SST similar to other climate models: there is a warming minimum—or "warming hole"—in the subpolar North Atlantic, and the sharp SST gradients associated with the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current shift northward by a few a degrees. Over the warming hole, global warming causes a relatively weak increase in rainfall. Beyond this, our experiments show more localized effects, likely resulting from future SST gradient changes in the North Atlantic. This includes a significant precipitation decrease to the south of the Gulf Stream despite increased underlying SSTs. Since this region is characterised by a strong band of precipitation in the current climate, this is contrary to the usual case that wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier in a warmer climate. A moisture budget analysis identifies a complex interplay of various processes in the region of modified SST gradients: reduced surface winds cause a decrease in evaporation; and thermodynamic, modified atmospheric eddy transports, and coastal processes cause a change in the moisture convergence. The changes in the the North Atlantic storm track are mainly controlled by the non-regional changes in the forcing. The impact of

  20. Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño/Southern Oscillation impacts on regional chlorophyll anomalies in the Indian Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Currie

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO are independent climate modes, which frequently co-occur, driving significant interannual changes within the Indian Ocean. We use a four-decade hindcast from a coupled biophysical ocean general circulation model, to disentangle patterns of chlorophyll anomalies driven by these two climate modes. Comparisons with remotely sensed records show that the simulation competently reproduces the chlorophyll seasonal cycle, as well as open-ocean anomalies during the 1997/1998 ENSO and IOD event. Results suggest that anomalous surface and euphotic-layer chlorophyll blooms in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean in fall, and southern Bay of Bengal in winter, are primarily related to IOD forcing. A negative influence of IOD on chlorophyll concentrations is shown in a region around the southern tip of India in fall. IOD also depresses depth-integrated chlorophyll in the 5–10° S thermocline ridge region, yet the signal is negligible in surface chlorophyll. The only investigated region where ENSO has a greater influence on chlorophyll than does IOD, is in the Somalia upwelling region, where it causes a decrease in fall and winter chlorophyll by reducing local upwelling winds. Yet unlike most other regions examined, the combined explanatory power of IOD and ENSO in predicting depth-integrated chlorophyll anomalies is relatively low in this region, suggestive that other drivers are important there. We show that the chlorophyll impact of climate indices is frequently asymmetric, with a general tendency for larger positive than negative chlorophyll anomalies. Our results suggest that ENSO and IOD cause significant and predictable regional re-organisation of chlorophyll via their influence on near-surface oceanography. Resolving the details of these effects should improve our understanding, and eventually gain predictability, of interannual changes in Indian Ocean productivity, fisheries

  1. The influence of climatically-driven surface loading variations on continental strain and seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Tim; Calais, Eric; Fleitout, Luce; Bollinger, Laurent; Scotti, Oona

    2016-04-01

    In slowly deforming regions of plate interiors, secondary sources of stress and strain can result in transient deformation rates comparable to, or greater than, the background tectonic rates. Highly variable in space and time, these transients have the potential to influence the spatio-temporal distribution of seismicity, interfering with any background tectonic effects to either promote or inhibit the failure of pre-existing faults, and potentially leading to a clustered, or 'pulse-like', seismic history. Here, we investigate the ways in which the large-scale deformation field resulting from climatically-controlled changes in surface ice mass over the Pleistocene and Holocene may have influenced not only the seismicity of glaciated regions, but also the wider seismicity around the ice periphery. We first use a set of geodynamic models to demonstrate that a major pulse of seismic activity occurring in Fennoscandia, coincident with the time of end-glaciation, occurred in a setting where the contemporaneous horizontal strain-rate resulting from the changing ice mass, was extensional - opposite to the reverse sense of coseismic displacement accommodated on these faults. Therefore, faulting did not release extensional elastic strain that was building up at the time of failure, but compressional elastic strain that had accumulated in the lithosphere on timescales longer than the glacial cycle, illustrating the potential for a non-tectonic trigger to tap in to the background tectonic stress-state. We then move on to investigate the more distal influence that changing ice (and ocean) volumes may have had on the evolving strain field across intraplate Europe, how this is reflected in the seismicity across intraplate Europe, and what impact this might have on the paleoseismic record.

  2. Decadal surface water quality trends under variable climate, land use, and hydrogeochemical setting in Iowa, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Christopher T.; Bekins, Barbara A.; Kalkhoff, Stephen J.; Hirsch, Robert M.; Liao, Lixia; Barnes, Kimberlee K.

    2014-01-01

    Understanding how nitrogen fluxes respond to changes in agriculture and climate is important for improving water quality. In the midwestern United States, expansion of corn cropping for ethanol production led to increasing N application rates in the 2000s during a period of extreme variability of annual precipitation. To examine the effects of these changes, surface water quality was analyzed in 10 major Iowa Rivers. Several decades of concentration and flow data were analyzed with a statistical method that provides internally consistent estimates of the concentration history and reveals flow-normalized trends that are independent of year-to-year streamflow variations. Flow-normalized concentrations of nitrate+nitrite-N decreased from 2000 to 2012 in all basins. To evaluate effects of annual discharge and N loading on these trends, multiple conceptual models were developed and calibrated to flow-weighted annual concentrations. The recent declining concentration trends can be attributed to both very high and very low discharge in the 2000s and to the long (e.g., 8 year) subsurface residence times in some basins. Dilution of N and depletion of stored N occurs in years with high discharge. Reduced N transport and increased N storage occurs in low-discharge years. Central Iowa basins showed the greatest reduction in flow-normalized concentrations, likely because of smaller storage volumes and shorter residence times. Effects of land-use changes on the water quality of major Iowa Rivers may not be noticeable for years or decades in peripheral basins of Iowa, and may be obscured in the central basins where extreme flows strongly affect annual concentration trends.

  3. Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks: CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site government Web resources and services. CFS Seasonal Climate Forecasts CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate discontinued after October 2012. This page displays seasonal climate anomalies from the NCEP coupled forecast

  4. Sensitivity of Climate Simulations to Land-Surface and Atmospheric Boundary-Layer Treatments-A Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garratt, J. R.

    1993-03-01

    Aspects of the land-surface and boundary-layer treatments in some 20 or so atmospheric general circulation models (GCMS) are summarized. In only a small fraction of these have significant sensitivity studies been carried out and published. Predominantly, the sensitivity studies focus upon the parameterization of land-surface processes and specification of land-surface properties-the most important of these include albedo, roughness length, soil moisture status, and vegetation density. The impacts of surface albedo and soil moisture upon the climate simulated in GCMs with bare-soil land surfaces are well known. Continental evaporation and precipitation tend to decrease with increased albedo and decreased soil moisture availability. For example, results from numerous studies give an average decrease in continental precipitation of 1 mm day1 in response to an average albedo increase of 0.13. Few conclusive studies have been carried out on the impact of a gross roughness-length change-the primary study included an important statistical assessment of the impact upon the mean July climate around the globe of a decreased continental roughness (by three orders of magnitude). For example, such a decrease reduced the precipitation over Amazonia by 1 to 2 mm day1.The inclusion of a canopy scheme in a GCM ensures the combined impacts of roughness (canopies tend to be rougher than bare soil), albedo (canopies tend to be less reflective than bare soil), and soil-moisture availability (canopies prevent the near-surface soil region from drying out and can access the deep soil moisture) upon the simulated climate. The most revealing studies to date involve the regional impact of Amazonian deforestation. The results of four such studies show that replacing tropical forest with a degraded pasture results in decreased evaporation ( 1 mm day1) and precipitation (1-2 mm day1), and increased near-surface air temperatures (2 K).Sensitivity studies as a whole suggest the need for a

  5. Ikh Turgen Mountain Glacier Change and 3d Surface Extents Prediction Using Long Term Landsat Image and Climate Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasanbat, Elbegjargal; Erdenebat, Erdenetogtokh; Chogsom, Bolorchuluun; Lkhamjav, Ochirkhuyag; Nanzad, Lkhagvadorj

    2018-04-01

    The glacier is most important the freshwater resources and indicator of the climate change. The researchers noted that during last decades the glacier is melting due to global warming. The study calculates a spatial distribution of protentional change of glacier coverage in the Ikh Turgen mountain of Western Mongolia, and it integrates long-term climate data and satellite datasets. Therefore, in this experiment has tried to estimation three-dimensional surface area of the glacier. For this purpose, Normalized difference snow index (NDSI) was applied to decision tree approach, using Landsat MSS, TM, ETM+ and LC8 imagery for 1975-2016, a surface and slope for digital elevation model, precipitation and air temperature historical data of meteorological station. The potential volume area significantly changed glacier cover of the Ikh Turgen Mountain, and the area affected by highly variable precipitation and air temperature regimes. Between 1972 and 2016, a potential area of glacier area has been decreased in Ikh Turgen mountain region.

  6. Adaptation response surfaces from an ensemble of wheat projections under climate change in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Ferrise, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    The uncertainty about climate change (CC) complicates impact adaptation and risk management evaluation at the regional level. Approaches for managing this uncertainty and for simulating and communicating climate change impacts and adaptation opportunities are required. Here we apply an ensemble of crop models for adapting rainfed winter wheat at Lleida (NE Spain), constructing adaptation response surfaces (ARS). Our methodology has been adapted from Pirttioja et al. (2015). Impact response surfaces (IRS) are plotted surfaces showing the response of an impact variable (here crop yield Y) to changes in two explanatory variables (here precipitation P and temperature T). By analyzing adaptation variables such as changes in crop yield (ΔY) when an adaptation option is simulated, these can be interpreted as the adaptation response to potential changes of P and T, i.e. ARS. To build these ARS, we explore the sensitivity of an ensemble of wheat models to changes in T and P. Baseline (1981-2010) T and P were modified using a delta change approach with changes in the seasonal patterns. Three levels of CO2 (representing future conditions until 2050) and two actual soil profiles are considered. Crop models were calibrated with field data from Abeledo et al. (2008) and Cartelle et al. (2006). Most promising adaptation options to be analyzed by the ARS approach are identified in a pilot stage with the models DSSAT4.5 and SiriusQuality v.2, subsequently simulating the selected adaptation combinations by the whole ensemble of 11 crop models. The adaptation options identified from pilot stage were: a cultivar with no vernalisation requirements, shortening or extending a 10 % the crop cycle of the standard cultivar, sowing 15 days earlier and 30 days later than the standard date, supplementary irrigation with 40 mm at flowering and full irrigation. These options and those of the standard cultivar and management resulted in 54 combinations and 450.000 runs per crop model. Our

  7. Assessing Asset Pricing Anomalies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.A. de Groot (Wilma)

    2017-01-01

    markdownabstractOne of the most important challenges in the field of asset pricing is to understand anomalies: empirical patterns in asset returns that cannot be explained by standard asset pricing models. Currently, there is no consensus in the academic literature on the underlying causes of

  8. Anomaly Busters II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1985-01-01

    The anomaly busters had struck on the first day of the Kyoto meeting with Yoji Totsuka of Tokyo speaking on baryon number nonjjonservation and 'related topics'. The unstable proton is a vital test of grand unified pictures pulling together the electroweak and quark/gluon forces in a single field theory

  9. Anomaly Busters II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anon.

    1985-11-15

    The anomaly busters had struck on the first day of the Kyoto meeting with Yoji Totsuka of Tokyo speaking on baryon number nonjjonservation and 'related topics'. The unstable proton is a vital test of grand unified pictures pulling together the electroweak and quark/gluon forces in a single field theory.

  10. The reactor antineutrino anomalies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haser, Julia; Buck, Christian; Lindner, Manfred [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Kernphysik, Heidelberg (Germany)

    2016-07-01

    Major discoveries were made in the past few years in the field of neutrino flavour oscillation. Nuclear reactors produce a clean and intense flux of electron antineutrinos and are thus an essential neutrino source for the determination of oscillation parameters. Most currently the reactor antineutrino experiments Double Chooz, Daya Bay and RENO have accomplished to measure θ{sub 13}, the smallest of the three-flavour mixing angles. In the course of these experiments two anomalies emerged: (1) the reanalysis of the reactor predictions revealed a deficit in experimentally observed antineutrino flux, known as the ''reactor antineutrino anomaly''. (2) The high precision of the latest generation of neutrino experiments resolved a spectral shape distortion relative to the expected energy spectra. Both puzzles are yet to be solved and triggered new experimental as well as theoretical studies, with the search for light sterile neutrinos as most popular explanation for the flux anomaly. This talk outlines the two reactor antineutrino anomalies. Discussing possible explanations for their occurrence, recent and upcoming efforts to solve the reactor puzzles are highlighted.

  11. Echocardiography in Ebstein's anomaly

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.J. Gussenhoven (Wilhelmina Johanna)

    1984-01-01

    textabstractIn this thesis the value of echocardiography is evaluated for the diagnosis of Ebstein's anomaly of the tricuspid valve. This congenital heart defect, first described in 1866 by Wilhelm Ebstein, is characterized by an apical displacement of the septal and inferior tricuspid valve

  12. Venus - Ishtar gravity anomaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sjogren, W. L.; Bills, B. G.; Mottinger, N. A.

    1984-01-01

    The gravity anomaly associated with Ishtar Terra on Venus is characterized, comparing line-of-sight acceleration profiles derived by differentiating Pioneer Venus Orbiter Doppler residual profiles with an Airy-compensated topographic model. The results are presented in graphs and maps, confirming the preliminary findings of Phillips et al. (1979). The isostatic compensation depth is found to be 150 + or - 30 km.

  13. Bolivian Bouguer Anomaly Grid

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A 1 kilometer Bouguer anomaly grid for the country of Bolivia.Number of columns is 550 and number of rows is 900. The order of the data is from the lower left to the...

  14. Generalized zero point anomaly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nogueira, Jose Alexandre; Maia Junior, Adolfo

    1994-01-01

    It is defined Zero point Anomaly (ZPA) as the difference between the Effective Potential (EP) and the Zero point Energy (ZPE). It is shown, for a massive and interacting scalar field that, in very general conditions, the renormalized ZPA vanishes and then the renormalized EP and ZPE coincide. (author). 3 refs

  15. Minnesota Bouguer Anomaly Grid

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A 1.5 kilometer Bouguer anomaly grid for the state of Minnesota. Number of columns is 404 and number of rows is 463. The order of the data is from the lower left to...

  16. Borehole temperatures, climate change and the pre-observational surface air temperature mean: allowance for hydraulic conditions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bodri, L.; Čermák, Vladimír

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 45, č. 4 (2005), s. 265-276 ISSN 0921-8181 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA3012005; GA ČR GA205/03/0998; GA AV ČR KSK3046108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3012916 Keywords : climate change * global warming * surface air temperature Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.223, year: 2005

  17. Analysing Surface Exposure to Climate Dynamics in the Himalayas to Adopt a Planning Framework for Landslide Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, A.

    2017-12-01

    Himalayas rank first in the inventory of most densely populated and congested high altitude mountain regions of the planet. The region is mostly characterized by inadequate infrastructure, lack of mitigation tools along with constraints of terrain undermining the carrying capacity and resilience of urban ecosystems. Moreover, climate change has increased vulnerability of poor and marginalized population living in rapidly urbanizing mountain towns to increased frequency and severity of risks from extreme weather events. Such events pose multifold threat by easily translating to hazards, without the ability to respond and mitigate. Additionally, the recent extreme climate dynamics such as rainfall patterns have influenced the natural rate of surface/slope processes in the Himalaya. The aim of the study was to analyze the extent of interaction between climate dynamics and upland surface to develop participatory planning framework for landslide risk reduction using Integral Geographic Information System (integral GIS). At this stage, the study is limited to only rainfall triggered landslides (RTL). The study region lies in the middle Himalayan range (Himachal). Research utilized terrain analysis tools in integral GIS and identified risk susceptible surface without: 1.adding to its (often) complex fragmentation, and 2. Interference in surface/slope processes. Analysis covered most of the relevant surface factors including geology, slope instability, infrastructure development, natural and urban drainage system, land-cover and land-use as well. The outcome included an exposure-reduced model of existing terrain and the surface-process accommodated by it, with the use of local technical tools available among the poor and fragile mountain community. The final participatory planning framework successfully harmonized people's perception and adaptation knowledge, and incorporated priorities of local authorities. This research is significant as it rises above the fundamental

  18. Doomed reservoirs in Kansas, USA? Climate change and groundwater mining on the Great Plains lead to unsustainable surface water storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brikowski, T. H.

    2008-06-01

    SummaryStreamflow declines on the Great Plains of the US are causing many Federal reservoirs to become profoundly inefficient, and will eventually drive them into unsustainability as negative annual reservoir water budgets become more common. The streamflow declines are historically related to groundwater mining, but since the mid-1980s correlate increasingly with climate. This study highlights that progression toward unsustainability, and shows that future climate change will continue streamflow declines at historical rates, with severe consequences for surface water supply. An object lesson is Optima Lake in the Oklahoma Panhandle, where streamflows have declined 99% since the 1960s and the reservoir has never been more than 5% full. Water balances for the four westernmost Federal reservoirs in Kansas (Cedar Bluff, Keith Sebelius, Webster and Kirwin) show similar tendencies. For these four, reservoir inflow has declined by 92%, 73%, 81% and 64% respectively since the 1950s. Since 1990 total evaporated volumes relative to total inflows amounted to 68%, 83%, 24% and 44% respectively. Predictions of streamflow and reservoir performance based on climate change models indicate 70% chance of steady decline after 2007, with a ˜50% chance of failure (releases by gravity flow impossible) of Cedar Bluff Reservoir between 2007 and 2050. Paradoxically, a 30% chance of storage increase prior 2020 is indicated, followed by steady declines through 2100. Within 95% confidence the models predict >50% decline in surface water resources between 2007 and 2050. Ultimately, surface storage of water resources may prove unsustainable in this region, forcing conversion to subsurface storage.

  19. Future climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard glaciers in an RCP8.5 climate scenario: a study with the regional climate model MAR forced by MIROC5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, C.; Fettweis, X.; Erpicum, M.

    2015-05-01

    We have performed a future projection of the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard with the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) regional climate model forced by MIROC5 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate), following the RCP8.5 scenario at a spatial resolution of 10 km. MAR predicts a similar evolution of increasing surface melt everywhere in Svalbard followed by a sudden acceleration of melt around 2050, with a larger melt increase in the south compared to the north of the archipelago. This melt acceleration around 2050 is mainly driven by the albedo-melt feedback associated with the expansion of the ablation/bare ice zone. This effect is dampened in part as the solar radiation itself is projected to decrease due to a cloudiness increase. The near-surface temperature is projected to increase more in winter than in summer as the temperature is already close to 0 °C in summer. The model also projects a stronger winter west-to-east temperature gradient, related to the large decrease of sea ice cover around Svalbard. By 2085, SMB is projected to become negative over all of Svalbard's glaciated regions, leading to the rapid degradation of the firn layer.

  20. The Modern Near-Surface Martian Climate: A Review of In-situ Meteorological Data from Viking to Curiosity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, G. M.; Newman, C. N.; De Vicente-Retortillo, A.; Fischer, E.; Renno, N. O.; Richardson, M. I.; Fairén, A. G.; Genzer, M.; Guzewich, S. D.; Haberle, R. M.; Harri, A.-M.; Kemppinen, O.; Lemmon, M. T.; Smith, M. D.; de la Torre-Juárez, M.; Vasavada, A. R.

    2017-10-01

    We analyze the complete set of in-situ meteorological data obtained from the Viking landers in the 1970s to today's Curiosity rover to review our understanding of the modern near-surface climate of Mars, with focus on the dust, CO2 and H2O cycles and their impact on the radiative and thermodynamic conditions near the surface. In particular, we provide values of the highest confidence possible for atmospheric opacity, atmospheric pressure, near-surface air temperature, ground temperature, near-surface wind speed and direction, and near-surface air relative humidity and water vapor content. Then, we study the diurnal, seasonal and interannual variability of these quantities over a span of more than twenty Martian years. Finally, we propose measurements to improve our understanding of the Martian dust and H2O cycles, and discuss the potential for liquid water formation under Mars' present day conditions and its implications for future Mars missions. Understanding the modern Martian climate is important to determine if Mars could have the conditions to support life and to prepare for future human exploration.

  1. Climate change impact of livestock CH4 emission in India: Global temperature change potential (GTP) and surface temperature response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumari, Shilpi; Hiloidhari, Moonmoon; Kumari, Nisha; Naik, S N; Dahiya, R P

    2018-01-01

    Two climate metrics, Global surface Temperature Change Potential (GTP) and the Absolute GTP (AGTP) are used for studying the global surface temperature impact of CH 4 emission from livestock in India. The impact on global surface temperature is estimated for 20 and 100 year time frames due to CH 4 emission. The results show that the CH 4 emission from livestock, worked out to 15.3 Tg in 2012. In terms of climate metrics GTP of livestock-related CH 4 emission in India in 2012 were 1030 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 20 ) and 62 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 100 ) at the 20 and 100 year time horizon, respectively. The study also illustrates that livestock-related CH 4 emissions in India can cause a surface temperature increase of up to 0.7mK and 0.036mK over the 20 and 100 year time periods, respectively. The surface temperature response to a year of Indian livestock emission peaks at 0.9mK in the year 2021 (9 years after the time of emission). The AGTP gives important information in terms of temperature change due to annual CH 4 emissions, which is useful when comparing policies that address multiple gases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Estimates of late Cenozoic climate change relevant to Earth surface processes in tectonically active orogens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutz, Sebastian G.; Ehlers, Todd A.; Werner, Martin; Lohmann, Gerrit; Stepanek, Christian; Li, Jingmin

    2018-04-01

    The denudation history of active orogens is often interpreted in the context of modern climate gradients. Here we address the validity of this approach and ask what are the spatial and temporal variations in palaeoclimate for a latitudinally diverse range of active orogens? We do this using high-resolution (T159, ca. 80 × 80 km at the Equator) palaeoclimate simulations from the ECHAM5 global atmospheric general circulation model and a statistical cluster analysis of climate over different orogens (Andes, Himalayas, SE Alaska, Pacific NW USA). Time periods and boundary conditions considered include the Pliocene (PLIO, ˜ 3 Ma), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ˜ 21 ka), mid-Holocene (MH, ˜ 6 ka), and pre-industrial (PI, reference year 1850). The regional simulated climates of each orogen are described by means of cluster analyses based on the variability in precipitation, 2 m air temperature, the intra-annual amplitude of these values, and monsoonal wind speeds where appropriate. Results indicate the largest differences in the PI climate existed for the LGM and PLIO climates in the form of widespread cooling and reduced precipitation in the LGM and warming and enhanced precipitation during the PLIO. The LGM climate shows the largest deviation in annual precipitation from the PI climate and shows enhanced precipitation in the temperate Andes and coastal regions for both SE Alaska and the US Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, LGM precipitation is reduced in the western Himalayas and enhanced in the eastern Himalayas, resulting in a shift of the wettest regional climates eastward along the orogen. The cluster-analysis results also suggest more climatic variability across latitudes east of the Andes in the PLIO climate than in other time slice experiments conducted here. Taken together, these results highlight significant changes in late Cenozoic regional climatology over the last ˜ 3 Myr. Comparison of simulated climate with proxy-based reconstructions for the MH and

  3. Impact of improved Greenland ice sheet surface representation in the NASA GISS ModelE2 GCM on simulated surface mass balance and regional climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, P. M.; LeGrande, A. N.; Fischer, E.; Tedesco, M.; Kelley, M.; Schmidt, G. A.; Fettweis, X.

    2017-12-01

    Towards achieving coupled simulations between the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE2 general circulation model (GCM) and ice sheet models (ISMs), improvements have been made to the representation of the ice sheet surface in ModelE2. These include a sub-grid-scale elevation class scheme, a multi-layer snow model, a time-variable surface albedo scheme, and adjustments to parameterization of sublimation/evaporation. These changes improve the spatial resolution and physical representation of the ice sheet surface such that the surface is represented at a level of detail closer to that of Regional Climate Models (RCMs). We assess the impact of these changes on simulated Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB). We also compare ModelE2 simulations in which winds have been nudged to match the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis with simulations from the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR) RCM forced by the same reanalysis. Adding surface elevation classes results in a much higher spatial resolution representation of the surface necessary for coupling with ISMs, but has a negligible impact on overall SMB. Implementing a variable surface albedo scheme increases melt by 100%, bringing it closer to melt simulated by MAR. Adjustments made to the representation of topography-influenced surface roughness length in ModelE2 reduce a positive bias in evaporation relative to MAR. We also examine the impact of changes to the GrIS surface on regional atmospheric and oceanic climate in coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations with ModelE2, finding a general warming of the Arctic due to a warmer GrIS, and a cooler North Atlantic in scenarios with doubled atmospheric CO2 relative to pre-industrial levels. The substantial influence of changes to the GrIS surface on the oceans and atmosphere highlight the importance of including these processes in the GCM, in view of potential feedbacks between the ice sheet

  4. US surface ozone trends and extremes from 1980 to 2014: quantifying the roles of rising Asian emissions, domestic controls, wildfires, and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Meiyun; Horowitz, Larry W.; Payton, Richard; Fiore, Arlene M.; Tonnesen, Gail

    2017-03-01

    US surface O3 responds to varying global-to-regional precursor emissions, climate, and extreme weather, with implications for designing effective air quality control policies. We examine these conjoined processes with observations and global chemistry-climate model (GFDL-AM3) hindcasts over 1980-2014. The model captures the salient features of observed trends in daily maximum 8 h average O3: (1) increases over East Asia (up to 2 ppb yr-1), (2) springtime increases at western US (WUS) rural sites (0.2-0.5 ppb yr-1) with a baseline sampling approach, and (3) summertime decreases, largest at the 95th percentile, and wintertime increases in the 50th to 5th percentiles over the eastern US (EUS). Asian NOx emissions have tripled since 1990, contributing as much as 65 % to modeled springtime background O3 increases (0.3-0.5 ppb yr-1) over the WUS, outpacing O3 decreases attained via 50 % US NOx emission controls. Methane increases over this period contribute only 15 % of the WUS background O3 increase. Springtime O3 observed in Denver has increased at a rate similar to remote rural sites. During summer, increasing Asian emissions approximately offset the benefits of US emission reductions, leading to weak or insignificant observed O3 trends at WUS rural sites. Mean springtime WUS O3 is projected to increase by ˜ 10 ppb from 2010 to 2030 under the RCP8.5 global change scenario. While historical wildfire emissions can enhance summertime monthly mean O3 at individual sites by 2-8 ppb, high temperatures and the associated buildup of O3 produced from regional anthropogenic emissions contribute most to elevating observed summertime O3 throughout the USA. GFDL-AM3 captures the observed interannual variability of summertime EUS O3. However, O3 deposition sink to vegetation must be reduced by 35 % for the model to accurately simulate observed high-O3 anomalies during the severe drought of 1988. Regional NOx reductions alleviated the O3 buildup during the recent heat waves of 2011

  5. Algebraic study of chiral anomalies

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Chiral anomalies; gauge theories; bundles; connections; quantum field ... The algebraic structure of chiral anomalies is made globally valid on non-trivial bundles by the introduction of a fixed background connection. ... Current Issue : Vol.

  6. Ferret Workflow Anomaly Detection System

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Smith, Timothy J; Bryant, Stephany

    2005-01-01

    The Ferret workflow anomaly detection system project 2003-2004 has provided validation and anomaly detection in accredited workflows in secure knowledge management systems through the use of continuous, automated audits...

  7. Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at 2030 using spatially varying ozone-temperature risk surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Ander; Reich, Brian J; Nolte, Christopher G; Spero, Tanya L; Hubbell, Bryan; Rappold, Ana G

    2017-01-01

    We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate non-linear, spatially varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observed data. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. (moderate level) and 75 p.p.b. (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 p.p.b. and 1.94 °F; however, the results varied by region. Increases in ozone because of climate change result in an increase in ozone mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. increases by 7.7% (1.6-14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 p.p.b. increases by 14.2% (1.6 28.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels.

  8. SUNYA Regional Climate Model Simulations of East Asia Summer Monsoon: Effects of Cloud Vertical Structure on the Surface Energy Balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Gong and Wei-Chyung Wang

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We used the State University of New York at Albany (SUNYA regional climate model to study the effect of cloud vertical distribution in affecting the surface energy balance of the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM. Simulations were conducted for the summers of 1988 and 1989, during which large contrast in the intra-seasonal cloud radiative forcing (CRF was observed at the top of the atmosphere. The model results indicate that both the high and low clouds are persistent throughout the summer months in both years. Because of large cloud water, low clouds significantly reduce the solar radiation flux reaching the surface, which nevertheless still dominate the surface energy balance, accounting for more than 50% of the surface heating. The low clouds also contribute significantly the downward longwave radiation to the surface with values strongly dependent on the cloud base temperature. The presence of low clouds effectively decreases the temperature and moisture gradients near surface, resulting in a substantial decrease in the sensible and latent heat fluxes from surface, which partially compensate the decrease of the net radiative cooling of the surface. For example, in the two days, May 8 and July 11 of 1988, the total cloud cover of 80% is simulated, but the respective low cloud cover (water was 63% (114 gm-2 and 22% (21 gm-2. As a result, the downward solar radiation is smaller by 161 Wm-2 in May 8. On the other hand, the cloud temperature was _ lower, yielding 56 Wm-2 smaller downward longwave radiation. The near surface temperature and gradient is more than _ smaller (and moisture gradient, leading to 21 and 81 Wm-2 smaller sensible heat and latent heat fluxes. It is also demonstrated that the model is capable to reproduce the intraseasonal variation of shortwave CRF, and catches the relationship between total cloud cover and SW CRF. The model results show the dominance of high cloud on the regional mean longwave CRF and low cloud on the intra

  9. The Variations of Land Surface Phenology in Northeast China and Its Responses to Climate Change from 1982 to 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianjun Zhao

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Northeast China is located at high northern latitudes and is a typical region of relatively high sensitivity to global climate change. Studies of the land surface phenology in Northeast China and its response to climate change are important for understanding global climate change. In this study, the land surface phenology parameters were calculated using the third generation dataset from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS 3g that was collected from 1982 to 2013 were estimated to analyze the variations of the land surface phenology in Northeast China at different scales and to discuss the internal relationships between phenology and climate change. We examined the phonological changes of all ecoregions. The average start of the growing season (SOS did not exhibit a significant trend throughout the study area; however, the end of the growing season (EOS was significantly delayed by 4.1 days or 0.13 days/year (p < 0.05 over the past 32 years. The SOS for the Hulunbuir Plain, Greater Khingan Mountains and Lesser Khingan Mountains was earlier, and the SOS for the Sanjing, Songnen and Liaohe Plains was later. In addition, the EOS of the Greater Khingan Mountains, Lesser Khingan Mountains and Changbai Mountains was later than the EOS of the Liaohe Plain. The spring temperature had the greatest impact on the SOS. Precipitation had an insignificant impact on forest SOS and a relatively large impact on grassland SOS. The EOS was affected by both temperature and precipitation. Furthermore, although temperature had a lag effect on the EOS, no significant lag effect was observed for the SOS.

  10. Natural emissions under future climate condition and their effects on surface ozone in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Min; Shu, Lei; Wang, Ti-jian; Liu, Qian; Gao, Da; Li, Shu; Zhuang, Bing-liang; Han, Yong; Li, Meng-meng; Chen, Pu-long

    2017-02-01

    The natural emissions of ozone precursors (NOx and VOCs) are sensitive to climate. Future climate change can impact O3 concentrations by perturbing these emissions. To better estimate the variation of natural emissions under different climate conditions and understand its effect on surface O3, we model the present and the future air quality over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region by running different simulations with the aid of the WRF-CALGRID model system that contains a natural emission module. Firstly, we estimate the natural emissions at present and in IPCC A1B scenario. The results show that biogenic VOC emission and soil NOx emission over YRD in 2008 is 657 Gg C and 19.1 Gg N, respectively. According to climate change, these emissions in 2050 will increase by 25.5% and 11.5%, respectively. Secondly, the effects of future natural emissions and meteorology on surface O3 are investigated and compared. It is found that the variations in meteorological fields can significantly alter the spatial distribution of O3 over YRD, with the increases of 5-15 ppb in the north and the decreases of -5 to -15 ppb in the south. However, only approximately 20% of the surface O3 increases caused by climate change can be attributed to the natural emissions, with the highest increment up to 2.4 ppb. Finally, Ra (the ratio of impacts from NOx and VOCs on O3 formation) and H2O2/HNO3 (the ratio between the concentrations of H2O2 and HNO3) are applied to study the O3 sensitivity in YRD. The results show that the transition value of H2O2/HNO3 will turn from 0.3 to 0.5 in 2008 to 0.4-0.8 in 2050. O3 formation in the YRD region will be insensitive to VOCs under future climate condition, implying more NOx need to be cut down. Our findings can help us understand O3 variation trend and put forward the reasonable and effective pollution control policies in these famous polluted areas.

  11. Branchial Cleft Anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    McPhail, Neil; Mustard, Robert A.

    1966-01-01

    The embryology, anatomy and pathology of branchial cleft anomalies are discussed and 87 cases reviewed. The most frequent anomaly was branchial cleft cyst, of which there were 77 cases. Treatment in all cases consisted of complete excision. There were five cases of external branchial sinus and five cases of complete branchial fistula. Sinograms were helpful in demonstrating these lesions. Excision presented little difficulty. No proved case of branchiogenic carcinoma has been found in the Toronto General Hospital. Five cases are described in which the original diagnosis was branchiogenic carcinoma—in four of these a primary tumour has already been found. The authors believe that the diagnosis of branchiogenic carcinoma should never be accepted until repeated examinations over a period of at least five years have failed to reveal a primary tumour. ImagesFig. 1Fig. 2Fig. 3Fig. 4Fig. 5 PMID:5901161

  12. Detection of sinkholes or anomalies using full seismic wave fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-01

    This research presents an application of two-dimensional (2-D) time-domain waveform tomography for detection of embedded sinkholes and anomalies. The measured seismic surface wave fields were inverted using a full waveform inversion (FWI) technique, ...

  13. The Response of African Land Surface Phenology to Large Scale Climate Oscillations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; de Beurs, Kirsten; Vrieling, Anton

    2010-01-01

    Variations in agricultural production due to rainfall and temperature fluctuations are a primary cause of food insecurity on the African continent. Analysis of changes in phenology can provide quantitative information on the effect of climate variability on growing seasons in agricultural regions. Using a robust statistical methodology, we describe the relationship between phenology metrics derived from the 26 year AVHRR NDVI record and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). We map the most significant positive and negative correlation for the four climate indices in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa between two phenological metrics and the climate indices. Our objective is to provide evidence of whether climate variability captured in the four indices has had a significant impact on the vegetative productivity of Africa during the past quarter century. We found that the start of season and cumulative NDVI were significantly affected by large scale variations in climate. The particular climate index and the timing showing highest correlation depended heavily on the region examined. In Western Africa the cumulative NDVI correlates with PDO in September-November. In Eastern Africa the start of the June-October season strongly correlates with PDO in March-May, while the PDO in December-February correlates with the start of the February-June season. The cumulative NDVI over this last season relates to the MEI of March-May. For Southern Africa, high correlations exist between SOS and NAO of September-November, and cumulative NDVI and MEI of March-May. The research shows that climate indices can be used to anticipate late start and variable vigor in the growing season of sensitive agricultural regions in Africa.

  14. Forest succession and climate change: Coupling land-surface processes and ecological dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, P.

    1990-01-01

    Growing evidence supports the hypothesis that humans are in the process of inadvertently modifying the Earth's climate by increasing the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other radiatively active trace gas. The present man-induced climate change, often referred to as the greenhouse effect, is different from natural changes because of its unprecedented pace and the incomplete knowledge of its consequences. As some scientists put it, humanity is performing on itself a 'global experiment' which may entail a number of surprises. The potential changes in the behavior of atmosphere/biosphere interactions are of particular importance. Such changes could affect atmospheric dynamics, the local and regional hydrology, the global bio-geochemistry, and therefore, human societies. Five distinct aspects of climate/vegetation interactions are examined. First, the climatically and physiologically mediated impacts of increases in the concentration of carbon dioxide on the evaporation from agricultural crops, grassland, and forests are investigated using the Penman-Monteith combination equation. Second, the degree of coupling between the vegetation and the atmosphere, as defined by Jarvis and McNaughton, is reexamined taking radiative losses from the vegetation to the atmosphere into account. Third, the effects of changes in the mean vs. the variance of climatic variables are investigated using a modified version of the forest dynamics model developed by Pastor and Post, LINK-AGES. Fourth, using the same model, changes in the production of non-methane hydrocarbons are estimated as climate and/or vegetation change. Finally, the main focus is on the response of forests to climatic changes using a model treating the physics of energy and water exchange in detail

  15. Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fettweis, X.; Franco, B.; Tedesco, M.; van Angelen, J.H.; Lenaerts, J.T.M.; van den Broeke, M.R.; Gallée, H.

    2013-01-01

    To estimate the sea level rise (SLR) originating from changes in surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), we present 21st century climate projections obtained with the regional climate model MAR (Mod`ele Atmosph´erique R´egional), forced by output of three CMIP5 (Coupled Model

  16. Penile Anomalies in Adolescence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Wood

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This article considers the impact and outcomes of both treatment and underlying condition of penile anomalies in adolescent males. Major congenital anomalies (such as exstrophy/epispadias are discussed, including the psychological outcomes, common problems (such as corporal asymmetry, chordee, and scarring in this group, and surgical assessment for potential surgical candidates. The emergence of new surgical techniques continues to improve outcomes and potentially raises patient expectations. The importance of balanced discussion in conditions such as micropenis, including multidisciplinary support for patients, is important in order to achieve appropriate treatment decisions. Topical treatments may be of value, but in extreme cases, phalloplasty is a valuable option for patients to consider. In buried penis, the importance of careful assessment and, for the majority, a delay in surgery until puberty has completed is emphasised. In hypospadias patients, the variety of surgical procedures has complicated assessment of outcomes. It appears that true surgical success may be difficult to measure as many men who have had earlier operations are not reassessed in either puberty or adult life. There is also a brief discussion of acquired penile anomalies, including causation and treatment of lymphoedema, penile fracture/trauma, and priapism.

  17. Penile anomalies in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Dan; Woodhouse, Christopher

    2011-03-07

    This article considers the impact and outcomes of both treatment and underlying condition of penile anomalies in adolescent males. Major congenital anomalies (such as exstrophy/epispadias) are discussed, including the psychological outcomes, common problems (such as corporal asymmetry, chordee, and scarring) in this group, and surgical assessment for potential surgical candidates. The emergence of new surgical techniques continues to improve outcomes and potentially raises patient expectations. The importance of balanced discussion in conditions such as micropenis, including multidisciplinary support for patients, is important in order to achieve appropriate treatment decisions. Topical treatments may be of value, but in extreme cases, phalloplasty is a valuable option for patients to consider. In buried penis, the importance of careful assessment and, for the majority, a delay in surgery until puberty has completed is emphasised. In hypospadias patients, the variety of surgical procedures has complicated assessment of outcomes. It appears that true surgical success may be difficult to measure as many men who have had earlier operations are not reassessed in either puberty or adult life. There is also a brief discussion of acquired penile anomalies, including causation and treatment of lymphoedema, penile fracture/trauma, and priapism.

  18. Contrasting the surface ocean distribution of bromoform and methyl iodide; implications for boundary layer physics, chemistry and climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palmer, C J, E-mail: carl.j.palmer@gmail.co [Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, 7701 (South Africa)

    2010-08-15

    Bromoform and methyl iodide are both methane-like hydrocarbons with a halogen atom replacing one or more of the hydrogen atoms. Both of these compounds occur naturally in the environment as a result of their production from seaweed and kelp. They are of interest to climate science as a result of their catalytic destruction of boundary layer ozone (a potent greenhouse gas) and, specifically for methyl iodide, the proposed role in the formation of new cloud condensation nuclei with implications for climate. In this paper, the currently available data on the distribution of bromoform and methyl iodide are analysed and contrasted to show that the concentrations of bromoform and methyl iodide do not correlate, that, in contrast to bromoform, the parameterization of sea surface methyl iodide concentrations demands only the sea surface temperature, and that the pelagic distribution of methyl iodide appears to follow the solar zenith angle. These three observations together suggest that, while the pelagic source of bromoform is mostly biogenic, the source of methyl iodide is photochemical. This has implications for the understanding of planetary boundary layer chemistry and potential organohalogen mediated feedbacks to climate.

  19. Multi-Annual Climate Predictions for Fisheries: An Assessment of Skill of Sea Surface Temperature Forecasts for Large Marine Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Desiree Tommasi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Decisions made by fishers and fisheries managers are informed by climate and fisheries observations that now often span more than 50 years. Multi-annual climate forecasts could further inform such decisions if they were skillful in predicting future conditions relative to the 50-year scope of past variability. We demonstrate that an existing multi-annual prediction system skillfully forecasts the probability of next year, the next 1–3 years, and the next 1–10 years being warmer or cooler than the 50-year average at the surface in coastal ecosystems. Probabilistic forecasts of upper and lower seas surface temperature (SST terciles over the next 3 or 10 years from the GFDL CM 2.1 10-member ensemble global prediction system showed significant improvements in skill over the use of a 50-year climatology for most Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs in the North Atlantic, the western Pacific, and Indian oceans. Through a comparison of the forecast skill of initialized and uninitialized hindcasts, we demonstrate that this skill is largely due to the predictable signature of radiative forcing changes over the 50-year timescale rather than prediction of evolving modes of climate variability. North Atlantic LMEs stood out as the only coastal regions where initialization significantly contributed to SST prediction skill at the 1 to 10 year scale.

  20. Contrasting the surface ocean distribution of bromoform and methyl iodide; implications for boundary layer physics, chemistry and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palmer, C J

    2010-01-01

    Bromoform and methyl iodide are both methane-like hydrocarbons with a halogen atom replacing one or more of the hydrogen atoms. Both of these compounds occur naturally in the environment as a result of their production from seaweed and kelp. They are of interest to climate science as a result of their catalytic destruction of boundary layer ozone (a potent greenhouse gas) and, specifically for methyl iodide, the proposed role in the formation of new cloud condensation nuclei with implications for climate. In this paper, the currently available data on the distribution of bromoform and methyl iodide are analysed and contrasted to show that the concentrations of bromoform and methyl iodide do not correlate, that, in contrast to bromoform, the parameterization of sea surface methyl iodide concentrations demands only the sea surface temperature, and that the pelagic distribution of methyl iodide appears to follow the solar zenith angle. These three observations together suggest that, while the pelagic source of bromoform is mostly biogenic, the source of methyl iodide is photochemical. This has implications for the understanding of planetary boundary layer chemistry and potential organohalogen mediated feedbacks to climate.

  1. Validation of a Climate-Data Record of the "Clear-Kky" Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Dorothy K.; Box, Jason E.; Koenig, Lora S.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.; Comiso, Josefino C.; Shuman, Christopher A.

    2011-01-01

    Surface temperatures on the Greenland Ice Sheet have been studied on the ground, using automatic weather station (AWS) data from the Greenland-Climate Network (GC-Net), and from analysis of satellite sensor data. Using Advanced Very High Frequency Radiometer (AVHRR) weekly surface temperature maps, warming of the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented since 1981. We extended and refined this record using higher-resolution Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from March 2000 to the present. We developed a daily and monthly climate-data record (CDR) of the "clear-sky" surface temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet using an ice-surface temperature (1ST) algorithm developed for use with MODIS data. Validation of this CDR is ongoing. MODIS Terra swath data are projected onto a polar stereographic grid at 6.25-km resolution to develop binary, gridded daily and mean-monthly 1ST maps. Each monthly map also has a color-coded image map that is available to download. Also included with the monthly maps is an accompanying map showing number of days in the month that were used to calculate the mean-monthly 1ST. This is important because no 1ST decision is made by the algorithm for cells that are considered cloudy by the internal cloud mask, so a sufficient number of days must be available to produce a mean 1ST for each grid cell. Validation of the CDR consists of several facets: 1) comparisons between ISTs and in-situ measurements; 2) comparisons between ISTs and AWS data; and 3) comparisons of ISTs with surface temperatures derived from other satellite instruments such as the Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+). Previous work shows that Terra MODIS ISTs are about 3 C lower than in-situ temperatures measured at Summit Camp, during the winter of 2008-09 under clear skies. In this work we begin to compare surface temperatures derived from AWS data with ISTs from the MODIS CDR. The

  2. Long-term trends of surface ozone and its influencing factors at the Mt Waliguan GAW station, China - Part 2: The roles of anthropogenic emissions and climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Wanyun; Xu, Xiaobin; Lin, Meiyun; Lin, Weili; Tarasick, David; Tang, Jie; Ma, Jianzhong; Zheng, Xiangdong

    2018-01-01

    Inter-annual variability and long-term trends in tropospheric ozone are both environmental and climate concerns. Ozone measured at Mt Waliguan Observatory (WLG, 3816 m a.s.l.) on the Tibetan Plateau over the period of 1994-2013 has increased significantly by 0.2-0.3 ppbv yr-1 during spring and autumn but shows a much smaller trend in winter and no significant trend in summer. Here we explore the factors driving the observed ozone changes at WLG using backward trajectory analysis, chemistry-climate model hindcast simulations (GFDL AM3), a trajectory-mapped ozonesonde data set, and several climate indices. A stratospheric ozone tracer implemented in GFDL AM3 indicates that stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) can explain ˜ 60 % of the simulated springtime ozone increase at WLG, consistent with an increase in the NW air-mass frequency inferred from the trajectory analysis. Enhanced STT associated with the strengthening of the mid-latitude jet stream contributes to the observed high ozone anomalies at WLG during the springs of 1999 and 2012. During autumn, observations at WLG are more heavily influenced by polluted air masses originating from South East Asia than in the other seasons. Rising Asian anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors are the key driver of increasing autumnal ozone observed at WLG, as supported by the GFDL AM3 model with time-varying emissions, which captures the observed ozone increase (0.26 ± 0.11 ppbv yr-1). AM3 simulates a greater ozone increase of 0.38 ± 0.11 ppbv yr-1 at WLG in autumn under conditions with strong transport from South East Asia and shows no significant ozone trend in autumn when anthropogenic emissions are held constant in time. During summer, WLG is mostly influenced by easterly air masses, but these trajectories do not extend to the polluted regions of eastern China and have decreased significantly over the last 2 decades, which likely explains why summertime ozone measured at WLG shows no significant trend

  3. Anomaly General Circulation Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarra, Antonio

    The feasibility of the anomaly model is assessed using barotropic and baroclinic models. In the barotropic case, both a stationary and a time-dependent model has been formulated and constructed, whereas only the stationary, linear case is considered in the baroclinic case. Results from the barotropic model indicate that a relation between the stationary solution and the time-averaged non-linear solution exists. The stationary linear baroclinic solution can therefore be considered with some confidence. The linear baroclinic anomaly model poses a formidable mathematical problem because it is necessary to solve a gigantic linear system to obtain the solution. A new method to find solution of large linear system, based on a projection on the Krylov subspace is shown to be successful when applied to the linearized baroclinic anomaly model. The scheme consists of projecting the original linear system on the Krylov subspace, thereby reducing the dimensionality of the matrix to be inverted to obtain the solution. With an appropriate setting of the damping parameters, the iterative Krylov method reaches a solution even using a Krylov subspace ten times smaller than the original space of the problem. This generality allows the treatment of the important problem of linear waves in the atmosphere. A larger class (nonzonally symmetric) of basic states can now be treated for the baroclinic primitive equations. These problem leads to large unsymmetrical linear systems of order 10000 and more which can now be successfully tackled by the Krylov method. The (R7) linear anomaly model is used to investigate extensively the linear response to equatorial and mid-latitude prescribed heating. The results indicate that the solution is deeply affected by the presence of the stationary waves in the basic state. The instability of the asymmetric flows, first pointed out by Simmons et al. (1983), is active also in the baroclinic case. However, the presence of baroclinic processes modifies the

  4. Response of groundwater level and surface-water/groundwater interaction to climate variability: Clarence-Moreton Basin, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Tao; Raiber, Matthias; Pagendam, Dan; Gilfedder, Mat; Rassam, David

    2018-03-01

    Understanding the response of groundwater levels in alluvial and sedimentary basin aquifers to climatic variability and human water-resource developments is a key step in many hydrogeological investigations. This study presents an analysis of groundwater response to climate variability from 2000 to 2012 in the Queensland part of the sedimentary Clarence-Moreton Basin, Australia. It contributes to the baseline hydrogeological understanding by identifying the primary groundwater flow pattern, water-level response to climate extremes, and the resulting dynamics of surface-water/groundwater interaction. Groundwater-level measurements from thousands of bores over several decades were analysed using Kriging and nonparametric trend analysis, together with a newly developed three-dimensional geological model. Groundwater-level contours suggest that groundwater flow in the shallow aquifers shows local variations in the close vicinity of streams, notwithstanding general conformance with topographic relief. The trend analysis reveals that climate variability can be quickly reflected in the shallow aquifers of the Clarence-Moreton Basin although the alluvial aquifers have a quicker rainfall response than the sedimentary bedrock formations. The Lockyer Valley alluvium represents the most sensitively responding alluvium in the area, with the highest declining (-0.7 m/year) and ascending (2.1 m/year) Sen's slope rates during and after the drought period, respectively. Different surface-water/groundwater interaction characteristics were observed in different catchments by studying groundwater-level fluctuations along hydrogeologic cross-sections. The findings of this study lay a foundation for future water-resource management in the study area.

  5. Spatial and Temporal Inter-Relationship between Anomalies and Trends of Temperature, Moisture, Cloud Cover and OLR as Observed by AIRS/AMSU on Aqua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula

    2009-01-01

    AIRS/AMSU is the advanced IR/MW atmospheric sounding system launched on EOS Aqua in May 2002. Products derived from AIRS/AMSU by the AIRS Science Team include surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profiled; atmospheric humidity profiles, fractional cloud clover and cloud top pressure, and OLR. Products covering the period September 2002 through the present have been derived from AIRS/AMSU using the AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm. In this paper, we will show results covering the time period September 2006 - November 2008. This time period is marked by a substantial warming trend of Northern Hemisphere Extra-tropical land surface skin temperatures, as well as pronounced El Nino - La Nina episodes. These both influence the spatial and temporal anomaly patterns of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, as well as of cloud cover and Clear Sky and All Sky OLR. The relationships between temporal and spatial anomalies of these parameters over this time period, as determined from AIRS/AMSU observations, will be shown with particular emphasis on which contribute significantly to OLR anomalies in each of the tropics and extra-tropics. Results will also be shown to evaluate the anomalies and trends of temperature profiles and OLR as determined from analysis of AIRS/AMSU data. Global and regional trends during the 6 1/3 year time period are not necessarily indicative of what has happened in the past, or what may happen in the future. Nevertheless, the inter-relationships of spatial and temporal anomalies of atmospheric geophysical parameters with those of surface skin temperature are indicative of climate processes, and can be used to test the performance of climate models when driven by changes in surface temperatures.

  6. Climate, water use, and land surface transformation in an irrigation intensive watershed - streamflow responses from 1950 through 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Joseph; Zou, Chris B.; Andrews, William J.; Long, James M.; Liang, Ye; Qiao, Lei

    2015-01-01

    Climatic variability and land surface change have a wide range of effects on streamflow and are often difficult to separate. We analyzed long-term records of climate, land use and land cover, and re-constructed the water budget based on precipitation, groundwater levels, and water use from 1950 through 2010 in the Cimarron–Skeleton watershed and a portion of the Cimarron–Eagle Chief watershed in Oklahoma, an irrigation-intensive agricultural watershed in the Southern Great Plains, USA. Our results show that intensive irrigation through alluvial aquifer withdrawal modifies climatic feedback and alters streamflow response to precipitation. Increase in consumptive water use was associated with decreases in annual streamflow, while returning croplands to non-irrigated grasslands was associated with increases in streamflow. Along with groundwater withdrawal, anthropogenic-induced factors and activities contributed nearly half to the observed variability of annual streamflow. Streamflow was more responsive to precipitation during the period of intensive irrigation between 1965 and 1984 than the period of relatively lower water use between 1985 and 2010. The Cimarron River is transitioning from a historically flashy river to one that is more stable with a lower frequency of both high and low flow pulses, a higher baseflow, and an increased median flow due in part to the return of cropland to grassland. These results demonstrated the interrelationship among climate, land use, groundwater withdrawal and streamflow regime and the potential to design agricultural production systems and adjust irrigation to mitigate impact of increasing climate variability on streamflow in irrigation intensive agricultural watershed.

  7. The impact of climate and composition on playa surface roughness: Investigation of atmospheric mineral dust emission mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tollerud, H. J.; Fantle, M. S.

    2011-12-01

    Atmospheric mineral dust has a wide range of impacts, including the transport of elements in geochemical cycles, health hazards from small particles, and climate forcing via the reflection of sunlight from dust particles. In particular, the mineral dust component of climate forcing is one of the most uncertain elements in the IPCC climate forcing summary. Mineral dust is also an important component of geochemical cycles. For instance, dust inputs to the ocean potentially affect the iron cycle by stimulating natural iron fertilization, which could then modify climate via the biological pump. Also dust can transport nutrients over long distances and fertilize nutrient-poor regions, such as island ecosystems or the Amazon rain forest. However, there are still many uncertainties in quantifying dust emissions from source regions. One factor that influences dust emission is surface roughness and texture, since a weak, unconsolidated surface texture is more easily ablated by wind than a strong, hard crust. We are investigating the impact of processes such as precipitation, groundwater evaporation, and wind on surface roughness in a playa dust source region. We find that water has a significant influence on surface roughness. We utilize ESA's Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) instrument to measure roughness in the playa. A map of roughness indicates where the playa surface is smooth (on the scale of centimeters) and potentially very strong, and where it is rough and might be more sensitive to disturbance. We have analyzed approximately 40 ASAR observations of the Black Rock Desert from 2007-2011. In general, the playa is smoother and more variable over time relative to nearby areas. There is also considerable variation within the playa. While the playa roughness maps changed significantly between summers and between observations during the winters, over the course of each summer, the playa surface maintained essentially the same roughness pattern. This suggests that

  8. A statistical adjustment approach for climate projections of snow conditions in mountain regions using energy balance land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verfaillie, Deborah; Déqué, Michel; Morin, Samuel; Lafaysse, Matthieu

    2017-04-01

    Projections of future climate change have been increasingly called for lately, as the reality of climate change has been gradually accepted and societies and governments have started to plan upcoming mitigation and adaptation policies. In mountain regions such as the Alps or the Pyrenees, where winter tourism and hydropower production are large contributors to the regional revenue, particular attention is brought to current and future snow availability. The question of the vulnerability of mountain ecosystems as well as the occurrence of climate-related hazards such as avalanches and debris-flows is also under consideration. In order to generate projections of snow conditions, however, downscaling global climate models (GCMs) by using regional climate models (RCMs) is not sufficient to capture the fine-scale processes and thresholds at play. In particular, the altitudinal resolution matters, since the phase of precipitation is mainly controlled by the temperature which is altitude-dependent. Simulations from GCMs and RCMs moreover suffer from biases compared to local observations, due to their rather coarse spatial and altitudinal resolution, and often provide outputs at too coarse time resolution to drive impact models. RCM simulations must therefore be adjusted using empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction methods, before they can be used to drive specific models such as energy balance land surface models. In this study, time series of hourly temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, and short- and longwave radiation were generated over the Pyrenees and the French Alps for the period 1950-2100, by using a new approach (named ADAMONT for ADjustment of RCM outputs to MOuNTain regions) based on quantile mapping applied to daily data, followed by time disaggregation accounting for weather patterns selection. We first introduce a thorough evaluation of the method using using model runs from the ALADIN RCM driven by a global reanalysis over the

  9. Irrigation as an Historical Climate Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Shukla, Sonali P.; Puma, Michael J.; Nazarenko, Larissa S.

    2014-01-01

    Irrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, even while other anthropogenic forcings (anthropogenic aerosols

  10. Near-Surface Meteorology During the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): Evaluation of Reanalyses and Global Climate Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Boer, G.; Shupe, M.D.; Caldwell, P.M.; Bauer, Susanne E.; Persson, O.; Boyle, J.S.; Kelley, M.; Klein, S.A.; Tjernstrom, M.

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) are used to evaluate the performance of three atmospheric reanalyses (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)- Interim reanalysis, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis, and NCEP-DOE (Department of Energy) reanalysis) and two global climate models (CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model 5) and NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2) in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large-scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms, are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, has demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the benefits gained by evaluating individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms that result in the best net energy budget.

  11. CAUSES: Attribution of Surface Radiation Biases in NWP and Climate Models near the U.S. Southern Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Weverberg, K.; Morcrette, C. J.; Petch, J.; Klein, S. A.; Ma, H.-Y.; Zhang, C.; Xie, S.; Tang, Q.; Gustafson, W. I.; Qian, Y.; Berg, L. K.; Liu, Y.; Huang, M.; Ahlgrimm, M.; Forbes, R.; Bazile, E.; Roehrig, R.; Cole, J.; Merryfield, W.; Lee, W.-S.; Cheruy, F.; Mellul, L.; Wang, Y.-C.; Johnson, K.; Thieman, M. M.

    2018-04-01

    Many Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and climate models exhibit too warm lower tropospheres near the midlatitude continents. The warm bias has been shown to coincide with important surface radiation biases that likely play a critical role in the inception or the growth of the warm bias. This paper presents an attribution study on the net radiation biases in nine model simulations, performed in the framework of the CAUSES project (Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface). Contributions from deficiencies in the surface properties, clouds, water vapor, and aerosols are quantified, using an array of radiation measurement stations near the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site. Furthermore, an in-depth analysis is shown to attribute the radiation errors to specific cloud regimes. The net surface shortwave radiation is overestimated in all models throughout most of the simulation period. Cloud errors are shown to contribute most to this overestimation, although nonnegligible contributions from the surface albedo exist in most models. Missing deep cloud events and/or simulating deep clouds with too weak cloud radiative effects dominate in the cloud-related radiation errors. Some models have compensating errors between excessive occurrence of deep cloud but largely underestimating their radiative effect, while other models miss deep cloud events altogether. Surprisingly, even the latter models tend to produce too much and too frequent afternoon surface precipitation. This suggests that rather than issues with the triggering of deep convection, cloud radiative deficiencies are related to too weak convective cloud detrainment and too large precipitation efficiencies.

  12. Eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature annual cycle in the Kiel climate model: simulation benefits from enhancing atmospheric resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wengel, C.; Latif, M.; Park, W.; Harlaß, J.; Bayr, T.

    2018-05-01

    A long-standing difficulty of climate models is to capture the annual cycle (AC) of eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) sea surface temperature (SST). In this study, we first examine the EEP SST AC in a set of integrations of the coupled Kiel Climate Model, in which only atmosphere model resolution differs. When employing coarse horizontal and vertical atmospheric resolution, significant biases in the EEP SST AC are observed. These are reflected in an erroneous timing of the cold tongue's onset and termination as well as in an underestimation of the boreal spring warming amplitude. A large portion of these biases are linked to a wrong simulation of zonal surface winds, which can be traced back to precipitation biases on both sides of the equator and an erroneous low-level atmospheric circulation over land. Part of the SST biases also is related to shortwave radiation biases related to cloud cover biases. Both wind and cloud cover biases are inherent to the atmospheric component, as shown by companion uncoupled atmosphere model integrations forced by observed SSTs. Enhancing atmosphere model resolution, horizontal and vertical, markedly reduces zonal wind and cloud cover biases in coupled as well as uncoupled mode and generally improves simulation of the EEP SST AC. Enhanced atmospheric resolution reduces convection biases and improves simulation of surface winds over land. Analysis of a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) reveals that in these models, very similar mechanisms are at work in driving EEP SST AC biases.

  13. Climatic and physiographic controls of spatial variability in surface water balance over the contiguous United States using the Budyko relationship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abatzoglou, John T.; Ficklin, Darren L.

    2017-09-01

    The geographic variability in the partitioning of precipitation into surface runoff (Q) and evapotranspiration (ET) is fundamental to understanding regional water availability. The Budyko equation suggests this partitioning is strictly a function of aridity, yet observed deviations from this relationship for individual watersheds impede using the framework to model surface water balance in ungauged catchments and under future climate and land use scenarios. A set of climatic, physiographic, and vegetation metrics were used to model the spatial variability in the partitioning of precipitation for 211 watersheds across the contiguous United States (CONUS) within Budyko's framework through the free parameter ω. A generalized additive model found that four widely available variables, precipitation seasonality, the ratio of soil water holding capacity to precipitation, topographic slope, and the fraction of precipitation falling as snow, explained 81.2% of the variability in ω. The ω model applied to the Budyko equation explained 97% of the spatial variability in long-term Q for an independent set of watersheds. The ω model was also applied to estimate the long-term water balance across the CONUS for both contemporary and mid-21st century conditions. The modeled partitioning of observed precipitation to Q and ET compared favorably across the CONUS with estimates from more sophisticated land-surface modeling efforts. For mid-21st century conditions, the model simulated an increase in the fraction of precipitation used by ET across the CONUS with declines in Q for much of the eastern CONUS and mountainous watersheds across the western United States.

  14. First branchial cleft anomaly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Fallouji, M. A.; Butler, M. F.

    1983-01-01

    A 15-year-old girl presented with a cystic swelling since birth behind the ramus of the right mandible and diagnosed clinically as a dermoid cyst. Surgical exploration, however, showed that it was closely related to the external auditory canal, with an extension running medially behind the parotid gland and ending in the bony middle ear. The facial nerve was closely related to the deep part of the cyst. Such an anatomical position indicates that this was a first branchial cleft anomaly. Surgical excision of the cyst was performed. PMID:6622327

  15. Data-Model Comparison of Pliocene Sea Surface Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowsett, H. J.; Foley, K.; Robinson, M. M.; Bloemers, J. T.

    2013-12-01

    The mid-Piacenzian (late Pliocene) climate represents the most geologically recent interval of long-term average warmth and shares similarities with the climate projected for the end of the 21st century. As such, its fossil and sedimentary record represents a natural experiment from which we can gain insight into potential climate change impacts, enabling more informed policy decisions for mitigation and adaptation. We present the first systematic comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperatures (SST) between an ensemble of eight climate model simulations produced as part of PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project) and the PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Project mean annual SST field. Our results highlight key regional (mid- to high latitude North Atlantic and tropics) and dynamic (upwelling) situations where there is discord between reconstructed SST and the PlioMIP simulations. These differences can lead to improved strategies for both experimental design and temporal refinement of the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. Scatter plot of multi-model-mean anomalies (squares) and PRISM3 data anomalies (large blue circles) by latitude. Vertical bars on data anomalies represent the variability of warm climate phase within the time-slab at each locality. Small colored circles represent individual model anomalies and show the spread of model estimates about the multi-model-mean. While not directly comparable in terms of the development of the means nor the meaning of variability, this plot provides a first order comparison of the anomalies. Encircled areas are a, PRISM low latitude sites outside of upwelling areas; b, North Atlantic coastal sequences and Mediterranean sites; c, large anomaly PRISM sites from the northern hemisphere. Numbers identify Ocean Drilling Program sites.

  16. Downscaling the climate change for oceans around Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Chamberlain

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available At present, global climate models used to project changes in climate poorly resolve mesoscale ocean features such as boundary currents and eddies. These missing features may be important to realistically project the marine impacts of climate change. Here we present a framework for dynamically downscaling coarse climate change projections utilising a near-global ocean model that resolves these features in the Australasian region, with coarser resolution elsewhere.

    A time-slice projection for a 2060s ocean was obtained by adding climate change anomalies to initial conditions and surface fluxes of a near-global eddy-resolving ocean model. Climate change anomalies are derived from the differences between present and projected climates from a coarse global climate model. These anomalies are added to observed fields, thereby reducing the effect of model bias from the climate model.

    The downscaling model used here is ocean-only and does not include the effects that changes in the ocean state will have on the atmosphere and air–sea fluxes. We use restoring of the sea surface temperature and salinity to approximate real-ocean feedback on heat flux and to keep the salinity stable. Extra experiments with different feedback parameterisations are run to test the sensitivity of the projection. Consistent spatial differences emerge in sea surface temperature, salinity, stratification and transport between the downscaled projections and those of the climate model. Also, the spatial differences become established rapidly (< 3 yr, indicating the importance of mesoscale resolution. However, the differences in the magnitude of the difference between experiments show that feedback of the ocean onto the air–sea fluxes is still important in determining the state of the ocean in these projections.

    Until such a time when it is feasible to regularly run a global climate model with eddy resolution, our framework for ocean climate change

  17. Using sea surface temperatures to improve performance of single dynamical downscaling model in flood simulation under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Y.; Cheng, C. T.; Hsiao, Y. H.; Hsu, C. T.; Yeh, K. C.; Liu, P. L.

    2017-12-01

    There are 5.3 typhoons hit Taiwan per year on average in last decade. Typhoon Morakot in 2009, the most severe typhoon, causes huge damage in Taiwan, including 677 casualties and roughly NT 110 billion (3.3 billion USD) in economic loss. Some researches documented that typhoon frequency will decrease but increase in intensity in western North Pacific region. It is usually preferred to use high resolution dynamical model to get better projection of extreme events; because coarse resolution models cannot simulate intense extreme events. Under that consideration, dynamical downscaling climate data was chosen to describe typhoon satisfactorily, this research used the simulation data from AGCM of Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM). Considering dynamical downscaling methods consume massive computing power, and typhoon number is very limited in a single model simulation, using dynamical downscaling data could cause uncertainty in disaster risk assessment. In order to improve the problem, this research used four sea surfaces temperatures (SSTs) to increase the climate change scenarios under RCP 8.5. In this way, MRI-AGCMs project 191 extreme typhoons in Taiwan (when typhoon center touches 300 km sea area of Taiwan) in late 21th century. SOBEK, a two dimensions flood simulation model, was used to assess the flood risk under four SSTs climate change scenarios in Tainan, Taiwan. The results show the uncertainty of future flood risk assessment is significantly decreased in Tainan, Taiwan in late 21th century. Four SSTs could efficiently improve the problems of limited typhoon numbers in single model simulation.

  18. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 15 Appendix N - Forecast Surface Runoff.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  19. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 14 Appendix M - Historical Surface Runoff.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  20. Einstein, Entropy and Anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirtes, Daniel; Oberheim, Eric

    2006-11-01

    This paper strengthens and defends the pluralistic implications of Einstein's successful, quantitative predictions of Brownian motion for a philosophical dispute about the nature of scientific advance that began between two prominent philosophers of science in the second half of the twentieth century (Thomas Kuhn and Paul Feyerabend). Kuhn promoted a monistic phase-model of scientific advance, according to which a paradigm driven `normal science' gives rise to its own anomalies, which then lead to a crisis and eventually a scientific revolution. Feyerabend stressed the importance of pluralism for scientific progress. He rejected Kuhn's model arguing that it fails to recognize the role that alternative theories can play in identifying exactly which phenomena are anomalous in the first place. On Feyerabend's account, Einstein's predictions allow for a crucial experiment between two incommensurable theories, and are an example of an anomaly that could refute the reigning paradigm only after the development of a competitor. Using Kuhn's specification of a disciplinary matrix to illustrate the incommensurability between the two paradigms, we examine the different research strategies available in this peculiar case. On the basis of our reconstruction, we conclude by rebutting some critics of Feyerabend's argument.

  1. A simulation tool for integrating climate change and Canadian surface transport : towards assessing impacts and adaptations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanaroglou, P.; Maoh, H.; Woudsma, C.; Marshall, S.

    2008-01-01

    Extreme weather events resulting from climate change will have a significant impact of the performance of the Canadian transportation system. This presentation described a simulation tool designed to investigate the potential ramifications of future climate change on transportation and the economy. The CLIMATE-C tool was designed to simulate future weather scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050 using weather parameters obtained from a global general circulation model. The model accounted for linkages between weather, transportation, and economic systems. A random utility-based multi-regional input-output model was used to predict inter-regional trade flows by truck and rail in Canada. Simulated weather scenarios were used to describe predicted changes in demographic, social, economic, technological and environmental developments to 2100. Various changes in population and economic growth were considered. Six additional scenarios were formulated to consider moderate and high rainfall events, moderate, high and extreme snowfall, and cold temperatures. Results of the preliminary analysis indicated that the model is sensitive to changes in weather events. Future research is needed to evaluate future weather scenarios and analyze weather-transport data in order to quantify travel speed reduction parameters. tabs., figs.

  2. Radio Occultation Bending Angle Anomalies During Tropical Cyclones

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biondi, Riccardo; Neubert, Torsten; Syndergaard, Stig

    signature in radio occultation profiles in the tropical tropopause layer. Using tropical cyclone best track database and data from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC), we show that the bending angle anomaly of a GPS radio occultation signal is typically larger...

  3. Interactions of Mineral Dust with Clouds, Sea Surface Temperature, and Climate Modes of Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeFlorio, Michael J.

    Global climate models (GCMs) are a vital tool for ensuring the prosperity and security of modern society. They allow scientists to understand complex interactions between the air, ocean, and land, and are used by policymakers to project future changes in climate on regional and global scales. The previous generation of GCMs, represented by CMIP3 models, are shown to be deficient in their representation of precipitation over the western United States, a region that depends critically on wintertime orographically enhanced precipitation for drinking water. In addition, aerosol-cloud interactions were prescribed in CMIP3 models, which decreased the value of their representation of global aerosol, cloud, and precipitation features. This has potentially large impacts on global radiation budgets, since aerosol-cloud interactions affect the spatial extent and magnitude of clouds and precipitation. The newest suite of GCMs, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, includes state-of-the-art parameterizations of small-scale features such as aerosols, clouds, and precipitation, and is widely used by the scientific community to learn more about the climate system. The Community Earth System Model (CESM), in conjunction with observations, provides several simulations to investigate the role of aerosols, clouds, and precipitation in the climate system and how they interact with larger modes of climate variability. We show that CESM produces a realistic spatial distribution of precipitation extremes over the western U.S., and that teleconnected signals of ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation to large-scale circulation patterns and precipitation over the western U.S. are improved when compared to CCSM3. We also discover a new semi-direct effect between dust and stratocumulus clouds over the subtropical North Atlantic, whereby boundary layer inversion strength increases during the most dusty summers due to shortwave absorption of dust above the planetary

  4. Factors affecting projected Arctic surface shortwave heating and albedo change in coupled climate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Marika M; Landrum, Laura

    2015-07-13

    We use a large ensemble of simulations from the Community Earth System Model to quantify simulated changes in the twentieth and twenty-first century Arctic surface shortwave heating associated with changing incoming solar radiation and changing ice conditions. For increases in shortwave absorption associated with albedo reductions, the relative influence of changing sea ice surface properties and changing sea ice areal coverage is assessed. Changes in the surface sea ice properties are associated with an earlier melt season onset, a longer snow-free season and enhanced surface ponding. Because many of these changes occur during peak solar insolation, they have a considerable influence on Arctic surface shortwave heating that is comparable to the influence of ice area loss in the early twenty-first century. As ice area loss continues through the twenty-first century, it overwhelms the influence of changes in the sea ice surface state, and is responsible for a majority of the net shortwave increases by the mid-twenty-first century. A comparison with the Arctic surface albedo and shortwave heating in CMIP5 models indicates a large spread in projected twenty-first century change. This is in part related to different ice loss rates among the models and different representations of the late twentieth century ice albedo and associated sea ice surface state. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  5. Refining surface net radiation estimates in arid and semi-arid climates of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golkar, Foroogh; Rossow, William B.; Sabziparvar, Ali Akbar

    2018-06-01

    Although the downwelling fluxes exhibit space-time scales of dependency on characteristic of atmospheric variations, especially clouds, the upward fluxes and, hence the net radiation, depends on the variation of surface properties, particularly surface skin temperature and albedo. Evapotranspiration at the land surface depends on the properties of that surface and is determined primarily by the net surface radiation, mostly absorbed solar radiation. Thus, relatively high spatial resolution net radiation data are needed for evapotranspiration studies. Moreover, in more arid environments, the diurnal variations of surface (air and skin) temperature can be large so relatively high (sub-daily) time resolution net radiation is also needed. There are a variety of radiation and surface property products available but they differ in accuracy, space-time resolution and information content. This situation motivated the current study to evaluate multiple sources of information to obtain the best net radiation estimate with the highest space-time resolution from ISCCP FD dataset. This study investigates the accuracy of the ISCCP FD and AIRS surface air and skin temperatures, as well as the ISCCP FD and MODIS surface albedos and aerosol optical depths as the leading source of uncertainty in ISCCP FD dataset. The surface air temperatures, 10-cm soil temperatures and surface solar insolation from a number of surface sites are used to judge the best combinations of data products, especially on clear days. The corresponding surface skin temperatures in ISCCP FD, although they are known to be biased somewhat high, disagreed more with AIRS measurements because of the mismatch of spatial resolutions. The effect of spatial resolution on the comparisons was confirmed using the even higher resolution MODIS surface skin temperature values. The agreement of ISCCP FD surface solar insolation with surface measurements is good (within 2.4-9.1%), but the use of MODIS aerosol optical depths as

  6. Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking-sea-ice-ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A; Livina, Valerie

    2013-12-03

    Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70 °N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change.

  7. Why were cool SST anomalies absent in the Bay of Bengal during the 1997 Indian Ocean Dipole event?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rao, S.A.; Gopalakrishna, V.V.; Shetye, S.R.; Yamagata, T.

    surface temperature anomalies (C176C) (middle row) and NCEP outgoing longwave radiation anomalies (watts.m C02 ) (bottom row) during September 1997 (first column), November 1997 (middle column) and January 1998 (right column). XBT lines (in pink) whose...

  8. Strategies for reducing the impacts of surface transportation on global climate change : a synthesis of policy research and state and local mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-03-01

    Climate change is likely to have more impact on the future of surface transportation than any other issue. The challenges and implications for surface transportation and for state DOTs include: the need to support major GHG reductions, the need to me...

  9. The role of soil moisture in land surface-atmosphere coupling: climate model sensitivity experiments over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Charles; Turner, Andrew

    2015-04-01

    It is generally acknowledged that anthropogenic land use changes, such as a shift from forested land into irrigated agriculture, may have an impact on regional climate and, in particular, rainfall patterns in both time and space. India provides an excellent example of a country in which widespread land use change has occurred during the last century, as the country tries to meet its growing demand for food. Of primary concern for agriculture is the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), which displays considerable seasonal and subseasonal variability. Although it is evident that changing rainfall variability will have a direct impact on land surface processes (such as soil moisture variability), the reverse impact is less well understood. However, the role of soil moisture in the coupling between the land surface and atmosphere needs to be properly explored before any potential impact of changing soil moisture variability on ISM rainfall can be understood. This paper attempts to address this issue, by conducting a number of sensitivity experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre: HadGEM2. Several experiments are undertaken, with the only difference between them being the extent to which soil moisture is coupled to the atmosphere. Firstly, the land surface is fully coupled to the atmosphere, globally (as in standard model configurations); secondly, the land surface is entirely uncoupled from the atmosphere, again globally, with soil moisture values being prescribed on a daily basis; thirdly, the land surface is uncoupled from the atmosphere over India but fully coupled elsewhere; and lastly, vice versa (i.e. the land surface is coupled to the atmosphere over India but uncoupled elsewhere). Early results from this study suggest certain 'hotspot' regions where the impact of soil moisture coupling/uncoupling may be important, and many of these regions coincide with previous studies. Focusing on the third experiment, i

  10. Validation of a Climate-Data Record of the "Clear-Sky" Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Dorothy K.; Box, Jason E.; Koenig, Lora S.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.; Comiso, Josefino C.; Shuman, Christopher A.

    2011-01-01

    Surface temperatures on the Greenland Ice Sheet have been studied on the ground, using automatic weather station (AWS) data from the Greenland-Climate Network (GC-Net), and from analysis of satellite sensor data. Using Advanced Very High Frequency Radiometer (AVHRR) weekly surface temperature maps, warming of the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented since 1981. We extended and refined this record using higher-resolution Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from March 2000 to the present. We developed a daily and monthly climate-data record (CDR) of the "clear-sky" surface temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet using an ice-surface temperature (1ST) algorithm developed for use with MODIS data. Validation of this CDR is ongoing. MODIS Terra swath data are projected onto a polar stereographic grid at 6.25-km resolution to develop binary, gridded daily and mean-monthly 1ST maps. Each monthly map also has a color-coded image map that is available to download. Also included with the monthly maps is an accompanying map showing number of days in the month that were used to calculate the mean-monthly 1ST. This is important because no 1ST decision is made by the algorithm for cells that are considered cloudy by the internal cloud mask, so a sufficient number of days must be available to produce a mean 1ST for each grid cell. Validation of the CDR consists of several facets: 1) comparisons between ISTs and in-situ measurements; 2) comparisons between ISTs and AWS data; and 3) comparisons of ISTs with surface temperatures derived from other satellite instruments such as the Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+). Previous work shows that Terra MODIS ISTs are about 3 C lower than in-situ temperatures measured at Summit Camp, during the winter of 2008-09 under clear skies. In this work we begin to compare surface temperatures derived from AWS data with ISTs from the MODIS CDR.

  11. Description of climate, surface hydrology, and near-surface hydrogeology. Preliminary site description. Forsmark area - version 1.2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansson, Per-Olof [Artesia Grundvattenkonsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Werner, Kent [SWECO VIAK AB/Golder Associates AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Bosson, Emma; Berglund, Sten [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Juston, John [DBE Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2005-06-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is conducting site investigations at two different locations, the Forsmark and Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The results from the investigations at the sites are used as a basic input to the development of Site Descriptive Models (SDM). The SDM shall summarise the current state of knowledge of the site, and provide parameters and models to be used in further analyses within Safety Assessment, Repository Design and Environmental Impact Assessment. The present report is a background report describing the meteorological conditions and the modelling of surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology in support of the Forsmark version 1.2 SDM based on the data available in the Forsmark 1.2 'data freeze' (July 31, 2004). The groundwater is very shallow, with groundwater levels within one meter below ground as an annual mean for almost all groundwater monitoring wells. Also, the annual groundwater level amplitude is less than 1.5 m for most wells. The shallow groundwater levels mean that there is a strong interaction between evapotranspiration, soil moisture and groundwater. In the modelling, surface water and near-surface groundwater divides are assumed to coincide. The small-scale topography implies that many local, shallow groundwater flow systems are formed in the Quaternary deposits, overlaying more large-scale flow systems associated with groundwater flows at greater depths. Groundwater level time series from wells in till and bedrock within the same areas show a considerably higher groundwater level in the till than in the bedrock. The observed differences in levels are not fully consistent with the good hydraulic contact between overburden and bedrock indicated by the hydraulic tests in the Quaternary deposits. However, the relatively lower groundwater levels in the bedrock may be caused by the horizontal to sub-horizontal highly

  12. Description of climate, surface hydrology, and near-surface hydrogeology. Preliminary site description. Forsmark area - version 1.2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johansson, Per-Olof; Werner, Kent; Bosson, Emma; Berglund, Sten; Juston, John

    2005-06-01

    The present report is a background report describing the meteorological conditions and the modelling of surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology in support of the Forsmark version 1.2 SDM based on the data available in the Forsmark 1.2 ''data freeze'' (July 31, 2004). The area covered in the conceptual and descriptive modelling is characterised by a low relief and a small-scale topography. Almost the whole area is located below 20 m a s l (metres above sea level). The corrected mean annual precipitation is 600-650 mm and the mean annual evapotranspiration can be estimated to a little more than 400 mm, leaving approximately 200 mm x year-1 for runoff. Till is the dominating Quaternary deposit covering approximately 75% of the area. In most of the area, the till is sandy. Bedrock outcrops are frequent but cover only approximately 5% of the area. Direct groundwater recharge from precipitation is the dominant source of groundwater recharge. The small-scale topography implies that many local, shallow groundwater flow systems are formed in the Quaternary deposits, overlaying more large-scale flow systems associated with groundwater flows at greater depths. Groundwater level time series from wells in till and bedrock within the same areas show a considerably higher groundwater level in the till than in the bedrock. The sediment stratigraphy of lakes and wetlands is crucial for their function as discharge areas for groundwater. Comparisons between measured lake water levels and groundwater levels below and around lakes indicate that the lakes in some cases may act as sources of groundwater recharge. Specifically, observations from Lake Bolundsfjaerden and Lake Eckarfjaerden show that such conditions were at hand during the dry summer of 2003. However, whether the observed water level relations correspond to significant water fluxes depends also on the hydrogeological properties of the lake sediments and the underlying Quaternary deposits. ''Old'' water with high

  13. Climate change signal and uncertainty in CMIP5-based projections of global ocean surface wave heights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaolan L.; Feng, Yang; Swail, Val R.

    2015-05-01

    This study uses the analysis of variance approaches to quantify the climate change signal and uncertainty in multimodel ensembles of statistical simulations of significant wave height (Hs), which are based on the CMIP5 historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenario simulations of sea level pressure. Here the signal of climate change refers to the temporal variations caused by the prescribed forcing. "Significant" means "significantly different from zero at 5% level." In a four-model ensemble of Hs simulations, the common signal—the signal that is simulated in all the four models—is found to strengthen over time. For the historical followed by RCP8.5 scenario, the common signal in annual mean Hs is found to be significant in 16.6% and 82.2% of the area by year 2005 and 2099, respectively. The global average of the variance proportion of the common signal increases from 0.75% in year 2005 to 12.0% by year 2099. The signal is strongest in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP), featuring significant increases in both the annual mean and maximum of Hs in this region. The climate model uncertainty (i.e., intermodel variability) is significant nearly globally; its magnitude is comparable to or greater than that of the common signal in most areas, except in the ETP where the signal is much larger. In a 20-model ensemble of Hs simulations for the period 2006-2099, the model uncertainty is found to be significant globally; it is about 10 times as large as the variability between the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The copyright line for this article was changed on 10 JUNE 2015 after original online publication.

  14. Adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and CO2 in a Mediterranean environment

    OpenAIRE

    Ruiz-Ramos , M.; Ferrise , R.; Rodríguez , A.; Lorite , I.J.; Bindi , M.; Carter , T.R.; Fronzek , S.; Palosuo , T.; Pirttioja , N.; Baranowski , P.; Buis , Samuel; Cammarano , D.; Chen , Y.; Dumont , B.; Ewert , F.

    2017-01-01

    This work was financially supported by the Spanish National Institute for Agricultural and Food Research and Technology (INIA, MACSUR01-UPM), the Italian Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (D.M. 24064/7303/15) through FACCE MACSUR − Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security, a FACCE JPI knowledge hub; MULCLIVAR, from the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO, CGL2012-38923-C02-02); the Academy ...

  15. An investigation of the sensitivity of a land surface model to climate change using a reduced form model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lynch, A.H.; McIlwaine, S. [PAOS/CIRES, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Beringer, J. [Inst. of Arctic Biology, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks (United States); Bonan, G.B. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2001-05-01

    In an illustration of a model evaluation methodology, a multivariate reduced form model is developed to evaluate the sensitivity of a land surface model to changes in atmospheric forcing. The reduced form model is constructed in terms of a set of ten integrative response metrics, including the timing of spring snow melt, sensible and latent heat fluxes in summer, and soil temperature. The responses are evaluated as a function of a selected set of six atmospheric forcing perturbations which are varied simultaneously, and hence each may be thought of as a six-dimensional response surface. The sensitivities of the land surface model are interdependent and in some cases illustrate a physically plausible feedback process. The important predictors of land surface response in a changing climate are the atmospheric temperature and downwelling longwave radiation. Scenarios characterized by warming and drying produce a large relative response compared to warm, moist scenarios. The insensitivity of the model to increases in precipitation and atmospheric humidity is expected to change in applications to coupled models, since these parameters are also strongly implicated, through the representation of clouds, in the simulation of both longwave and shortwave radiation. (orig.)

  16. Low Risk Anomalies?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schneider, Paul; Wagner, Christian; Zechner, Josef

    This paper shows theoretically and empirically that beta- and volatility-based low risk anomalies are driven by return skewness. The empirical patterns concisely match the predictions of our model that endogenizes the role of skewness for stock returns through default risk. With increasing downside...... risk, the standard capital asset pricing model (CAPM) increasingly overestimates expected equity returns relative to firms' true (skew-adjusted) market risk. Empirically, the profitability of betting against beta/volatility increases with firms' downside risk, and the risk-adjusted return differential...... of betting against beta/volatility among low skew firms compared to high skew firms is economically large. Our results suggest that the returns to betting against beta or volatility do not necessarily pose asset pricing puzzles but rather that such strategies collect premia that compensate for skew risk...

  17. Water radon anomaly fields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yin, H.

    1980-01-01

    A striking aspect of water radon levels in relation to earthquakes is that before the Tangshan quake there was a remarkable synchronicity of behavior of many wells within 200 km of Tangshan. However, for many wells anomalous values persisted after the earthquake, particularly outside the immediate region of the quake. It is clear that radon may be produced by various processes; some candidates are pressure, shear, vibration, temperature and pressure, mixing of water-bearing strata, breakdown of mineral crystal structure, and the like, although it is not clear which of these are primary. It seems that a possible explanation of the persistence of the anomaly in the case of Tangshan may be that the earthquake released strain in the vicinity of Tangshan but increased it further along the geological structures involved, thus producing a continued radon buildup.

  18. NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of AVHRR Surface Reflectance, Version 4

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset contains gridded daily surface reflectance and brightness temperatures derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors onboard...

  19. Nolen-Schiffer anomaly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pieper, S.C.; Wiringa, R.B.

    1995-01-01

    The Argonne v 18 potential contains a detailed treatment of the pp, pn and nn electromagnetic potential, including Coulomb, vacuum polarization, Darwin Foldy and magnetic moment terms, all with suitable form factors and was fit to pp and pn data using the appropriate nuclear masses. In addition, it contains a nuclear charge-symmetry breaking (CSB) term adjusted to reproduce the difference in the experimental pp and nn scattering lengths. We have used these potential terms to compute differences in the binding energies of mirror isospin-1/2 nuclei (Nolen-Schiffer [NS] anomaly). Variational Monte Carlo calculations for the 3 He- 3 H system and cluster variational Monte Carlo for the 15 O- 15 N and 17 F- 17 O systems were made. In the first case, the best variational wave function for the A = 3 nuclei was used. However, because our 16 O wave function does not reproduce accurately the 16 O rms radius, to which the NS anomaly is very sensitive, we adjusted the A = 15 and A = 17 wave functions to reproduce the experimental density profiles. Our computed energy differences for these three systems are 0.757 ± .001, 3.544 ± .018 and 3.458 ± .040 MeV respectively, which are to be compared with the experimental differences of 0.764, 3.537, and 3.544 MeV. Most of the theoretical uncertainties are due to uncertainties in the experimental rms radii. The nuclear CSB potential contributes 0.066, 0.188, and 0.090 MeV to these totals. We also attempted calculations for A = 39 and A = 41. However, in these cases, the experimental uncertainties in the rms radius make it impossible to extract useful information about the contribution of the nuclear CSB potential

  20. Analysis and modelling of surface Urban Heat Island in 20 Canadian cities under climate and land-cover change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaur, Abhishek; Eichenbaum, Markus Kalev; Simonovic, Slobodan P

    2018-01-15

    Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) is an urban climate phenomenon that is expected to respond to future climate and land-use land-cover change. It is important to further our understanding of physical mechanisms that govern SUHI phenomenon to enhance our ability to model future SUHI characteristics under changing geophysical conditions. In this study, SUHI phenomenon is quantified and modelled at 20 cities distributed across Canada. By analyzing MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensed surface temperature at the cities over 2002-2012, it is found that 16 out of 20 selected cities have experienced a positive SUHI phenomenon while 4 cities located in the prairies region and high elevation locations have experienced a negative SUHI phenomenon in the past. A statistically significant relationship between observed SUHI magnitude and city elevation is also recorded over the observational period. A Physical Scaling downscaling model is then validated and used to downscale future surface temperature projections from 3 GCMs and 2 extreme Representative Concentration Pathways in the urban and rural areas of the cities. Future changes in SUHI magnitudes between historical (2006-2015) and future timelines: 2030s (2026-2035), 2050s (2046-2055), and 2090s (2091-2100) are estimated. Analysis of future projected changes indicate that 15 (13) out of 20 cities can be expected to experience increases in SUHI magnitudes in future under RCP 2.6 (RCP 8.5). A statistically significant relationship between projected future SUHI change and current size of the cities is also obtained. The study highlights the role of city properties (i.e. its size, elevation, and surrounding land-cover) towards shaping their current and future SUHI characteristics. The results from this analysis will help decision-makers to manage Canadian cities more efficiently under rapidly changing geophysical and demographical conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Influences of two types of El Niño event on the Northwest Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Haibo; Wu, Qigang; Wu, Zepeng

    2018-01-01

    Based on the HadISST1 and NCEP datasets, we investigated the influences of the central Pacific El Niño event (CP-EL) and eastern Pacific El Niño event (EP-EL) on the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies of the Tropical Indian Ocean. Considering the remote effect of Indian Ocean warming, we also discussed the anticyclone anomalies over the Northwest Pacific, which is very important for the South China precipitation and East Asian climate. Results show that during the El Niño developing year of EP-EL, cold SST anomalies appear and intensify in the east of tropical Indian Ocean. At the end of that autumn, all the cold SST anomaly events lead to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. Basin uniform warm SST anomalies exist in the Indian Ocean in the whole summer of EL decaying year for both CP-and EP-ELs. However, considering the statistical significance, more significant warm SST anomalies only appear in the North Indian Ocean among the June and August of EP-EL decaying year. For further research, EP-EL accompany with Indian Ocean Basin Warming (EPI-EL) and CP El Niño accompany with Indian Ocean Basin Warming (CPI-EL) events are classified. With the remote effects of Indian Ocean SST anomalies, the EPI-and CPI-ELs contribute quite differently to the Northwest Pacific. For the EPI-EL developing year, large-scale warm SST anomalies arise in the North Indian Ocean in May, and persist to the autumn of the El Niño decaying year. However, for the CPI-EL, weak warm SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean maintain to the El Niño decaying spring. Because of these different SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean, distinct zonal SST gradient, atmospheric anticyclone and precipitation anomalies emerge over the Northwest Pacific in the El Niño decaying years. Specifically, the large-scale North Indian Ocean warm SST anomalies during the EPI-EL decaying years, can persist to summer and force anomalous updrafts and rainfall over the North Indian Ocean. The atmospheric

  2. Axial anomaly at finite temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaturvedi, S.; Gupte, Neelima; Srinivasan, V.

    1985-01-01

    The Jackiw-Bardeen-Adler anomaly for QED 4 and QED 2 are calculated at finite temperature. It is found that the anomaly is independent of temperature. Ishikawa's method [1984, Phys. Rev. Lett. vol. 53 1615] for calculating the quantised Hall effect is extended to finite temperature. (author)

  3. Anomaly mediation deformed by axion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakayama, Kazunori, E-mail: kazunori@hep-th.phys.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Department of Physics, University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Kavli Institute for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa 277-8583 (Japan); Yanagida, Tsutomu T. [Kavli Institute for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa 277-8583 (Japan)

    2013-05-13

    We show that in supersymmetric axion models the axion supermultiplet obtains a sizable F-term due to a non-supersymmetric dynamics and it generally gives the gaugino masses comparable to the anomaly mediation contribution. Thus the gaugino mass relation predicted by the anomaly mediation effect can be significantly modified in the presence of axion to solve the strong CP problem.

  4. Novel topological invariants and anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirayama, M.; Sugimasa, N.

    1987-01-01

    It is shown that novel topological invariants are associated with a class of Dirac operators. Trace formulas which are similar to but different from Callias's formula are derived. Implications of these topological invariants to anomalies in quantum field theory are discussed. A new class of anomalies are calculated for two models: one is two dimensional and the other four dimensional

  5. A comparative analysis of the impacts of climate change and irrigation on land surface and subsurface hydrology in the North China Plain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leng, Guoyong; Tang, Qiuhong; Huang, Maoyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-02-01

    The Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) was used to investigate and compare the effects of climate change and irrigation on terrestrial water cycle. Three climate change scenarios and one irrigation scenario (IRRIG) were simulated in the North China Plain (NCP), which is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change and human perturbations in China. The climate change scenarios consist of (1) HOT (i.e. temperature increase by 2oC); (2) HOTWET (same with HOT but with an increase of precipitation by 15%); (3) HOTDRY (same with HOT but with a decrease of precipitation by 15%). In the IRRIG scenario, the irrigation scheme was calibrated to simulate irrigation amounts that match the actual irrigation amounts and irrigation was divided between surface water and groundwater withdrawals based on census data. Our results show that the impacts of climate change were more widespread while those of irrigation were concentrated only over the agricultural regions. Specifically, the mean water table depth was simulated to decline persistently by over 1 m annually due to groundwater exploitation during the period of 1980-2000, while much smaller effects were induced by climate change. Although irrigation has comparable effects on surface fluxes and surface soil moisture as climate change, it has much greater effects on water table depth and groundwater storage. Moreover, irrigation has much larger effects on the top layer soil moisture whereas increase in precipitation associated with climate change exerts more influence on lower layer soil moisture. This study emphasizes the need to accurately account for irrigation impacts in adapting to climate change.

  6. The effect of sudden ice sheet melt on ocean circulation and surface climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanovic, R. F.; Gregoire, L. J.; Wickert, A. D.; Valdes, P. J.; Burke, A.

    2017-12-01

    Collapse of ice sheets can cause significant sea-level rise and widespread climate change. Around 14.6 thousand years ago, global mean sea level rose by 15 m in less than 350 years during an event known as Meltwater Pulse 1a. Ice sheet modelling and sea-level fingerprinting has suggested that approximately half of this 50 mm yr-1 sea level rise may have come from a North American ice Saddle Collapse that drained into the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans. However, dating uncertainties make it difficult to determine the sequence of events and their drivers, leaving many fundamental questions. For example, was melting from the northern ice sheets responsible for the Older-Dryas or other global-scale cooling events, or did a contribution from Antarctica counteract the climatic effects? What was the role of the abrupt Bølling Warming? And how were all these signals linked to changes in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation?To address these questions, we examined the effect of the North American ice Saddle Collapse using a high resolution network drainage model coupled to an atmosphere-ocean-vegetation General Circulation Model. Here, we present the quantitative routing estimates of the consequent meltwater discharge and its impact on climate. We also tested a suite of more idealised meltwater forcing scenarios to examine the global influence of Arctic versus Antarctic ice melt. The results show that 50% of the Saddle Collapse meltwater pulse was routed via the Mackenzie River into the Arctic Ocean, and 50% was discharged directly into the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico. This meltwater flux, equivalent to a total of 7.3 m of sea-level rise, caused a strong (6 Sv) weakening of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and widespread Northern Hemisphere cooling of 1-5 °C. The greatest cooling is in the Arctic (5-10 °C in the winter), but there is also significant winter warming over eastern North America (1-3 °C). We propose that this robust submillennial mechanism was

  7. Evolution of Diurnal Asymmetry of Surface Temperature over Different Climatic Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajendran, V.; C T, D.; Chakravorty, A.; AghaKouchak, A.

    2016-12-01

    The increase in drought, flood, diseases, crop failure etc. in the recent past has created an alarm amongst the researchers. One of the main reasons behind the intensification of these environmental hazards is the recent revelation of climate change, which is generally attributed to the human induced global warming, represented by an increase in global mean temperature. However, in order to formulate policies to mitigate and prevent the threats due to global warming, its key driving factors should be analysed at high spatial and temporal resolution. Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) is one of the indicators of global warming. The study of the evolution of the DTR is crucial, since it affects agriculture, health, ecosystems, transport, etc. Recent studies reveal that diurnal asymmetry has decreased globally, whereas a few regional studies report a contradictory pattern and attributed them to localized feedback processes. However, an evident conclusion cannot be made using the linear trend approaches employed in the past studies and the evolution of diurnal asymmetry should be investigated using non-linear trend approach for better perception. Hence, the regional evolution of DTR trend has been analysed using the spatially-temporally Multidimensional Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (MEEMD) method over India and observed a positive trend in over-all mean of DTR, while its rate of increase has declined in the recent decades. Further, the grids showing negative trend in DTR is observed in arid deserts and warm-temperate grasslands and positive trend over the west coast and sub-tropical forest in the North-East. This transition predominantly began from the west coast and is stretched with an increase in magnitude. These changes are more pronounced during winter and post-monsoon seasons, especially in the arid desert and warm-temperate grasslands, where the rate of increase in minimum temperature is higher than that of the maximum temperature. These analyses suggest

  8. Experience in a Climate Microworld: Influence of Surface and Structure Learning, Problem Difficulty, and Decision Aids in Reducing Stock-Flow Misconceptions

    OpenAIRE

    Medha Kumar; Varun Dutt; Varun Dutt

    2018-01-01

    Research shows that people’s wait-and-see preferences for actions against climate change are a result of several factors, including cognitive misconceptions. The use of simulation tools could help reduce these misconceptions concerning Earth’s climate. However, it is still unclear whether the learning in these tools is of the problem’s surface features (dimensions of emissions and absorptions and cover-story used) or of the problem’s structural features (how emissions and absorptions cause a ...

  9. ARM Climate Research Facility Spectral Surface Albedo Value-Added Product (VAP) Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McFarlane, S; Gaustad, K; Long, C; Mlawer, E

    2011-07-15

    This document describes the input requirements, output data products, and methodology for the Spectral Surface Albedo (SURFSPECALB) value-added product (VAP). The SURFSPECALB VAP produces a best-estimate near-continuous high spectral resolution albedo data product using measurements from multifilter radiometers (MFRs). The VAP first identifies best estimates for the MFR downwelling and upwelling shortwave irradiance values, and then calculates narrowband spectral albedo from these best-estimate irradiance values. The methodology for finding the best-estimate values is based on a simple process of screening suspect data and backfilling screened and missing data with estimated values when possible. The resulting best-estimate MFR narrowband spectral albedos are used to determine a daily surface type (snow, 100% vegetation, partial vegetation, or 0% vegetation). For non-snow surfaces, a piecewise continuous function is used to estimate a high spectral resolution albedo at 1 min temporal and 10 cm-1 spectral resolution.

  10. Atmosphere surface storm track response to resolved ocean mesoscale in two sets of global climate model experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Small, R. Justin; Msadek, Rym; Kwon, Young-Oh; Booth, James F.; Zarzycki, Colin

    2018-05-01

    It has been hypothesized that the ocean mesoscale (particularly ocean fronts) can affect the strength and location of the overlying extratropical atmospheric storm track. In this paper, we examine whether resolving ocean fronts in global climate models indeed leads to significant improvement in the simulated storm track, defined using low level meridional wind. Two main sets of experiments are used: (i) global climate model Community Earth System Model version 1 with non-eddy-resolving standard resolution or with ocean eddy-resolving resolution, and (ii) the same but with the GFDL Climate Model version 2. In case (i), it is found that higher ocean resolution leads to a reduction of a very warm sea surface temperature (SST) bias at the east coasts of the U.S. and Japan seen in standard resolution models. This in turn leads to a reduction of storm track strength near the coastlines, by up to 20%, and a better location of the storm track maxima, over the western boundary currents as observed. In case (ii), the change in absolute SST bias in these regions is less notable, and there are modest (10% or less) increases in surface storm track, and smaller changes in the free troposphere. In contrast, in the southern Indian Ocean, case (ii) shows most sensitivity to ocean resolution, and this coincides with a larger change in mean SST as ocean resolution is changed. Where the ocean resolution does make a difference, it consistently brings the storm track closer in appearance to that seen in ERA-Interim Reanalysis data. Overall, for the range of ocean model resolutions used here (1° versus 0.1°) we find that the differences in SST gradient have a small effect on the storm track strength whilst changes in absolute SST between experiments can have a larger effect. The latter affects the land-sea contrast, air-sea stability, surface latent heat flux, and the boundary layer baroclinicity in such a way as to reduce storm track activity adjacent to the western boundary in the N

  11. Adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and CO2 in a Mediterranean environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Ferrise, Roberto; Rodríguez, A

    2018-01-01

    type were analysed by constructing response surfaces, which we termed, in accordance with their specific purpose, adaptation response surfaces (ARSs). These were created to assess the effect of adaptations through a range of plausible P, T and [CO2] perturbations. The results indicated that impacts....... However, a single sI was sufficient to develop a high adaptation potential, including options mainly based on spring wheat, current cycle duration and early sowing date. Depending on local environment (e.g. soil type), many of these adaptations can maintain current yield levels under moderate changes in T...

  12. Mapping localised freshwater anomalies in the brackish paleo-lake sediments of the Machile–Zambezi Basin with transient electromagnetic sounding, geoelectrical imaging and induced polarisation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chongo, Mkhuzo; Christiansen, Anders Vest; Fiandaca, Gianluca

    2015-01-01

    A recent airborne TEM survey in the Machile–Zambezi Basin of south western Zambia revealed high electrical resistivity anomalies (around 100 Ωm) in a low electrical resistivity (below 13 Ωm) background. The near surface (0–40 m depth range) electrical resistivity distribution of these anomalies...... appeared to be coincident with superficial features related to surface water such as alluvial fans and flood plains. This paper describes the application of transient electromagnetic soundings (TEM) and continuous vertical electrical sounding (CVES) using geo-electrics and time domain induced polarisation...... thins out and deteriorates in water quality further inland. It is postulated that the freshwater lens originated as a result of interaction between the Zambezi River and the salty aquifer in a setting in which evapotranspiration is the net climatic stress. Similar high electrical resistivity bodies were...

  13. Climate Change Adaptation in a Mediterranean Semi-Arid Catchment: Testing Managed Aquifer Recharge and Increased Surface Reservoir Capacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Guyennon

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Among different uses of freshwater, irrigation is the most impacting groundwater resource, leading to water table depletion and possible seawater intrusion. The unbalance between the availability of water resources and demand is currently exacerbated and could become worse in the near future in accordance with climate change observations and scenarios provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. In this context, Increasing Maximum Capacity of the surface reservoir (IMC and Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR are adaptation measures that have the potential to enhance water supply systems resiliency. In this paper, a multiple-users and multiple-resources-Water Supply System (WSS model is implemented to evaluate the effectiveness of these two adaptation strategies in a context of overexploited groundwater under the RCP 4.5 and the RCP 8.5 IPCC scenarios. The presented a case study that is located in the Puglia, a semi-arid region of South Italy characterized by a conspicuous water demand for irrigation. We observed that, although no significant long-term trend affects the proposed precipitation scenarios, the expected temperature increase highly impacts the WSS resources due to the associated increase of water demand for irrigation purposes. Under the RCP 4.5 the MAR scenario results are more effective than the IMC during long term wet periods (typically 5 years and successfully compensates the impact on the groundwater resources. Differently, under RCP 8.5, due to more persistent dry periods, both adaptation scenarios fail and groundwater resource become exposed to massive sea water intrusion during the second half of the century. We conclude that the MAR scenario is a suitable adaptation strategy to face the expected future changes in climate, although mitigation actions to reduce green-house gases are strongly required.

  14. Predictable patterns of the May-June rainfall anomaly over East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Wen; Wang, Bin; Yim, So-Young; Ha, Kyung-Ja

    2017-02-01

    During early summer (May-June, MJ), East Asia (EA) subtropical front is a defining feature of Asian monsoon, which produces the most prominent precipitation band in the global subtropics. Here we show that dynamical prediction of early summer EA (20°N-45°N, 100°E-130°E) rainfall made by four coupled climate models' ensemble hindcast (1979-2010) yields only a moderate skill and cannot be used to estimate predictability. The present study uses an alternative, empirical orthogonal function (EOF)-based physical-empirical (P-E) model approach to predict rainfall anomaly pattern and estimate its potential predictability. The first three leading modes are physically meaningful and can be, respectively, attributed to (a) the interaction between the anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high and underlying Indo-Pacific warm ocean, (b) the forcing associated with North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly, and (c) the development of equatorial central Pacific SST anomalies. A suite of P-E models is established to forecast the first three leading principal components. All predictors are 0 month ahead of May, so the prediction here is named as a 0 month lead prediction. The cross-validated hindcast results demonstrate that these modes may be predicted with significant temporal correlation skills (0.48-0.72). Using the predicted principal components and the corresponding EOF patterns, the total MJ rainfall anomaly was hindcasted for the period of 1979-2015. The time-mean pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) score reaches 0.38, which is significantly higher than dynamical models' multimodel ensemble skill (0.21). The estimated potential maximum attainable PCC is around 0.65, suggesting that the dynamical prediction models may have large rooms to improve. Limitations and future work are discussed.

  15. A Climate-Data Record (CDR) of the "Clear-Sky" Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Dorothy K.; Comiso, Josefino C.; DiGirolamo, Nocolo E.; Shuman, Christopher A.

    2011-01-01

    We have developed a climate-data record (CDR) of "clear-sky" ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet using Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The CDR provides daily and monthly-mean IST from March 2000 through December 2010 on a polar stereographic projection at a resolution of 6.25 km. The CDR is amenable to extension into the future using Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data. Regional "clear-sky" surface temperature increases since the early 1980s in the Arctic, measured using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) infrared data, range from 0.57 +/- 0.02 to 0.72 +/- 0.1 c per decade. Arctic warming has important implications for ice-sheet mass balance because much of the periphery of the Greenland Ice Sheet is already near O C during the melt season, and is thus vulnerable to rapid melting if temperatures continue to increase. An increase in melting of the ice sheet would accelerate sea-level rise, an issue affecting potentially billions of people worldwide. The IST CDR will provide a convenient data set for modelers and for climatologists to track changes of the surface temperature of the ice sheet as a whole and of the individual drainage basins on the ice sheet. The daily and monthly maps will provide information on surface melt as well as "clear-sky" temperature. The CDR will be further validated by comparing results with automatic-weather station data and with satellite-derived surface-temperature products.

  16. Ideal climatic conditions for condensation of atmospheric moisture on the plants’ surface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prokhorov Alexey

    2015-12-01

    A study of the diversity of the plant adaptation mechanisms that contribute to lowering the surface temperature and the absorption of condensate will allow us in the future to carry out introduction, genetic modification or selection of plants with the most visible effect of lowering the temperature and the least dependence on insolation.

  17. Future climate warming increases Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fyke, J.G.; Vizcaino, M.; Lipscomb, W.; Price, S.

    2014-01-01

    The integrated surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has large interannual variability. Long-term future changes to this variability will affect GrIS dynamics, freshwater fluxes, regional oceanography, and detection of changes in ice volume trends. Here we analyze a simulated

  18. Evaluation of surface air temperature trend and climate change in the north - east of I. R. of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alireza, Shahabfar

    2004-01-01

    In this paper maximum, minimum and mean surface air temperature recorded, analysed to reveal spatial and temporal patterns of long-term trends, change points, significant warming (cooling) periods and linear trend per decade. According to this research summer minimum temperatures have generally increased at a larger rate than in spring and autumn minimum temperatures. On the other hand, nighttime warming rates of spring and summer are generally stronger than those that exist in spring and summer daytime temperatures. Considering the significant increasing trends in annual, spring and summer temperatures, it is seen that night-time warming rates are stronger in the northern regions, which are characterized by the Khorasan Province macro climate type: a very hot summer, a relatively hot and late spring and early autumn, and a moderate winter. We have seriously considered the strong warming trends in spring and summer and thus likely in annual minimum air temperatures. It is very likely that significant and very rapid night-time warming trends over much of the province can be related to the widespread, rapid and increased urbanization in Khorasan Province, in addition to long-term and global effects of the human-induced climate change on air temperatures. (Author)

  19. Understanding surface-water availability in the Central Valley as a means to projecting future groundwater storage with climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodrich, J. P.; Cayan, D. R.

    2017-12-01

    California's Central Valley (CV) relies heavily on diverted surface water and groundwater pumping to supply irrigated agriculture. However, understanding the spatiotemporal character of water availability in the CV is difficult because of the number of individual farms and local, state, and federal agencies involved in using and managing water. Here we use the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM), developed by the USGS, to understand the relationships between climatic variability, surface water inputs, and resulting groundwater use over the historical period 1970-2013. We analyzed monthly surface water diversion data from >500 CV locations. Principle components analyses were applied to drivers constructed from meteorological data, surface reservoir storage, ET, land use cover, and upstream inflows, to feed multiple regressions and identify factors most important in predicting surface water diversions. Two thirds of the diversion locations ( 80% of total diverted water) can be predicted to within 15%. Along with monthly inputs, representations of cumulative precipitation over the previous 3 to 36 months can explain an additional 10% of variance, depending on location, compared to results that excluded this information. Diversions in the southern CV are highly sensitive to inter-annual variability in precipitation (R2 = 0.8), whereby more surface water is used during wet years. Until recently, this was not the case in the northern and mid-CV, where diversions were relatively constant annually, suggesting relative insensitivity to drought. In contrast, this has important implications for drought response in southern regions (eg. Tulare Basin) where extended dry conditions can severely limit surface water supplies and lead to excess groundwater pumping, storage loss, and subsidence. In addition to fueling our understanding of spatiotemporal variability in diversions, our ability to predict these water balance components allows us to update CVHM predictions before

  20. Tidal mixing in the Indonesian Seas and its effect on the tropical climate system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koch-Larrouy, Ariane; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sebastien [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat: Experimentation et Approches Numeriques (CNRS/IRD/UPMC/MNHN), Paris (France); Madec, Gurvan [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat: Experimentation et Approches Numeriques (CNRS/IRD/UPMC/MNHN), Paris (France); National Oceanographic Centre, Southampton (United Kingdom)

    2010-05-15

    The sensitivity of the tropical climate to tidal mixing in the Indonesian Archipelago (IA) is investigated using a coupled general circulation model. It is shown that the introduction of tidal mixing considerably improves water masses properties in the IA, generating fresh and cold anomalies in the thermocline and salty and cold anomalies at the surface. The subsurface fresh anomalies are advected in the Indian Ocean thermocline and ultimately surface to freshen the western part of the basin whereas surface salty anomalies are advected in the Leuwin current to salt waters along the Australian coast. The {proportional_to}0.5 C surface cooling in the IA reduces by 20% the overlying deep convection. This improves both the amount and structure of the rainfall and weakens the wind convergence over the IA, relaxes the equatorial Pacific trade winds and strengthens the winds along Java coast. These wind changes causes the thermocline to be deeper in the eastern equatorial Pacific and shallower in the eastern Indian Ocean. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude is therefore slightly reduced while the Indian Ocean Dipole/Zonal Mode (IODZM) variability increases. IODZM precursors, related to ENSO events the preceding winter in this model, are also shown to be more efficient in promoting an IODZM thanks to an enhanced wind/thermocline coupling. Changes in the coupled system in response tidal mixing are as large as those found when closing the Indonesian Throughflow, emphasizing the key role of IA on the Indo-Pacific climate. (orig.)

  1. Venus: The Atmosphere, Climate, Surface, Interior and Near-Space Environment of an Earth-Like Planet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Fredric W.; Svedhem, Håkan; Head, James W.

    2018-02-01

    This is a review of current knowledge about Earth's nearest planetary neighbour and near twin, Venus. Such knowledge has recently been extended by the European Venus Express and the Japanese Akatsuki spacecraft in orbit around the planet; these missions and their achievements are concisely described in the first part of the review, along with a summary of previous Venus observations. The scientific discussions which follow are divided into three main sections: on the surface and interior; the atmosphere and climate; and the thermosphere, exosphere and magnetosphere. These reports are intended to provide an overview for the general reader, and also an introduction to the more detailed topical surveys in the following articles in this issue, where full references to original material may be found.

  2. A possible climate signal in the surface morphology and internal structure of Galena Creek Rock Glacier, Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Eric; Holt, John; Levy, Joseph; Stuurman, Cassie; Nerozzi, Stefano; Cardenas, Benjamin; Pharr, James; Aylward, Dan; Schmidt, Logan; Hoey, William; Prem, Parvathy; Rambo, Jackie; Lim, YeJin; Maharaj, Kian

    2016-04-01

    Galena Creek Rock Glacier (GCRG) has been shown in previous studies to be a debris-covered glacier (e.g. Ackert, Jr., 1998), and is thus a target of interest as a record of climate and an element of the mountain hydrological system. The goal of this study was to investigate possible relationships between surface morphology and internal structure and composition of GCRG. This was achieved using ground-penetrating radar (GPR), time-domain electromagnetic sounding (TEM), and photogrammetry to produce digital terrain models (DTMs). We acquired 6 longitudinal GPR surveys at 50 and 100 MHz, 2 common midpoint GPR surveys, and 28 TEM soundings on GCRG from the head to the toe, and ground-based photogrammetry data were collected to produce a DTM of its cirque at 10 cm resolution. TEM soundings locally constrained the bulk thickness of GCRG to 26-75 meters. Common midpoint and hyperbola analyses of GPR surveys produced dielectric constants in the near subsurface of 4 in the upper glacier to 5-9 in the middle and lower glacier. These are consistent with clean ice and a mélange of rock with air and/or ice, respectively. GPR revealed a pervasive shallow reflector at 1-2.5m depth that we interpret to be the interface between the surface debris layer and glacier ice. There is increased structure and clutter in the GPR data beneath this interface as one moves down glacier. Observations were additionally made of a 40m wide, 4-5m deep circular thermokarst pond located on upper GCRG in the cirque. The walls of the pond revealed a cross-section of the top several meters of GCRG's interior: a dry surface layer of rocky debris 1-1.5m thick overlying pure glacier ice. An englacial debris band was also observed, roughly 50 cm thick and presenting at an apparent up-glacier dip of ~30 degrees, intersecting the surface near a subtle ridge resolved in the photogrammetry DTM. A GPR transect conducted near the pond over 6 similar ridges imaged 6 corresponding up-glacier dipping reflectors that

  3. Changes in surface area of the Böön Tsagaan and Orog lakes (Mongolia, Valley of the Lakes, 1974-2013) compared to climate and permafrost changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szumińska, Danuta

    2016-07-01

    The main aim of the study is the analysis of changes in surface area of lake Böön Tsagaan (45°35‧N, 99°8‧E) and lake Orog (45°3‧N, 100°44‧E) taking place in the last 40 years in the context of climate conditions and permafrost degradation. The lakes, located in Central Mongolia, at the borderline of permafrost range are fed predominantly by river waters and groundwater from the surrounding mountain areas, characterized by continuous and discontinuous permafrost occurrence - mostly the Khangai. The analysis of the Böön Tsagaan and Orog lake surface area in 1974-2013 was conducted based on satellite images, whereas climate conditions were analysed using the NOAA climate data and CRU dataset. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to study the relationship patterns between the climatic factors and changes in the surface area of the lakes. A tendency for a decrease in surface area, intermittent with short episodes of resupply, was observed in both studied lakes. Climate changes recorded in the analysed period had both direct and indirect impacts on water supply to lakes. Taking into account the results of PCA analysis, the most significant factors include: fluctuation of annual precipitation, increase in air temperature and thickness of snow cover. The extended duration of snow cover in the last decades of the 20th century may constitute a key factor in relation to permafrost degradation.

  4. Long-term sedimentary recycling of rare sulphur isotope anomalies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinhard, Christopher T; Planavsky, Noah J; Lyons, Timothy W

    2013-05-02

    The accumulation of substantial quantities of O2 in the atmosphere has come to control the chemistry and ecological structure of Earth's surface. Non-mass-dependent (NMD) sulphur isotope anomalies in the rock record are the central tool used to reconstruct the redox history of the early atmosphere. The generation and initial delivery of these anomalies to marine sediments requires low partial pressures of atmospheric O2 (p(O2); refs 2, 3), and the disappearance of NMD anomalies from the rock record 2.32 billion years ago is thought to have signalled a departure from persistently low atmospheric oxygen levels (less than about 10(-5) times the present atmospheric level) during approximately the first two billion years of Earth's history. Here we present a model study designed to describe the long-term surface recycling of crustal NMD anomalies, and show that the record of this geochemical signal is likely to display a 'crustal memory effect' following increases in atmospheric p(O2) above this threshold. Once NMD anomalies have been buried in the upper crust they are extremely resistant to removal, and can be erased only through successive cycles of weathering, dilution and burial on an oxygenated Earth surface. This recycling results in the residual incorporation of NMD anomalies into the sedimentary record long after synchronous atmospheric generation of the isotopic signal has ceased, with dynamic and measurable signals probably surviving for as long as 10-100 million years subsequent to an increase in atmospheric p(O2) to more than 10(-5) times the present atmospheric level. Our results can reconcile geochemical evidence for oxygen production and transient accumulation with the maintenance of NMD anomalies on the early Earth, and suggest that future work should investigate the notion that temporally continuous generation of new NMD sulphur isotope anomalies in the atmosphere was likely to have ceased long before their ultimate disappearance from the rock record.

  5. Spatiotemporal Co-variability of Surface Climate for Renewable Energy across the Contiguous United States: Role of the North Atlantic Subtropical High

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doering, K.; Steinschneider, S.

    2017-12-01

    The variability of renewable energy supply and drivers of demand across space and time largely determines the energy balance within power systems with a high penetration of renewable technologies. This study examines the joint spatiotemporal variability of summertime climate linked to renewable energy production (precipitation, wind speeds, insolation) and energy demand (temperature) across the contiguous United States (CONUS) between 1948 and 2015. Canonical correlation analysis is used to identify the major modes of joint variability between summer wind speeds and precipitation and related patterns of insolation and temperature. Canonical variates are then related to circulation anomalies to identify common drivers of the joint modes of climate variability. Results show that the first two modes of joint variability between summer wind speeds and precipitation exhibit pan-US dipole patterns with centers of action located in the eastern and central CONUS. Temperature and insolation also exhibit related US-wide dipoles. The relationship between canonical variates and lower-tropospheric geopotential height indicates that these modes are related to variability in the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH). This insight can inform optimal strategies for siting renewables in an interconnected electric grid, and has implications for the impacts of climate variability and change on renewable energy systems.

  6. Near-surface wind variability over the broader Adriatic region: insights from an ensemble of regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belušić, Andreina; Prtenjak, Maja Telišman; Güttler, Ivan; Ban, Nikolina; Leutwyler, David; Schär, Christoph

    2018-06-01

    Over the past few decades the horizontal resolution of regional climate models (RCMs) has steadily increased, leading to a better representation of small-scale topographic features and more details in simulating dynamical aspects, especially in coastal regions and over complex terrain. Due to its complex terrain, the broader Adriatic region represents a major challenge to state-of-the-art RCMs in simulating local wind systems realistically. The objective of this study is to identify the added value in near-surface wind due to the refined grid spacing of RCMs. For this purpose, we use a multi-model ensemble composed of CORDEX regional climate simulations at 0.11° and 0.44° grid spacing, forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, a COSMO convection-parameterizing simulation at 0.11° and a COSMO convection-resolving simulation at 0.02° grid spacing. Surface station observations from this region and satellite QuikSCAT data over the Adriatic Sea have been compared against daily output obtained from the available simulations. Both day-to-day wind and its frequency distribution are examined. The results indicate that the 0.44° RCMs rarely outperform ERA-Interim reanalysis, while the performance of the high-resolution simulations surpasses that of ERA-Interim. We also disclose that refining the grid spacing to a few km is needed to properly capture the small-scale wind systems. Finally, we show that the simulations frequently yield the accurate angle of local wind regimes, such as for the Bora flow, but overestimate the associated wind magnitude. Finally, spectral analysis shows good agreement between measurements and simulations, indicating the correct temporal variability of the wind speed.

  7. Recent surface cooling in the Yellow and East China Seas and the associated North Pacific climate regime shift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yong Sun; Jang, Chan Joo; Yeh, Sang-Wook

    2018-03-01

    The Yellow and East China Seas (YECS) are widely believed to have experienced robust, basin-scale warming over the last few decades. However, the warming reached a peak in the late 1990s, followed by a significant cooling trend. In this study, we investigated the characteristics of this low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variance and its dynamic relationship with large-scale climate variability through cyclostationary orthogonal function analysis for the 1982-2014 period. Both regressed surface winds on the primary mode of the YECS SST and trends in air-sea heat fluxes demonstrate that the intensification of the northerly winds in winter contribute largely to the recent cooling trend by increasing heat loss to the atmosphere. As a localized oceanic response to these winds, the upwind flow seems to bring warm waters and partially counteracts the basin-scale cooling, thus contributing to a weakening of the cooling trend along the central trough of the Yellow Sea. In the context of the large-scale climate variabilities, a strong relationship between the YECS SST variability and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) became weak considerably during the recent cooling period after the late 1990s as the PDO signals appeared to be confined within the eastern basin of the North Pacific in association with the regime shift. In addition to this decoupling of the YECS SST from the PDO, the intensifying Siberian High pressure system likely caused the enhanced northerly winds, leading to the recent cooling trend. These findings highlight relative roles of the PDO and the Siberian High in shaping the YECS SST variance through the changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and attendant oceanic advection.

  8. Anomalies in instanton calculus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anselmi, D.

    1995-01-01

    I develop a formalism for solving topological field theories explicitly, in the case when the explicit expression of the instantons is known. I solve topological Yang-Mills theory with the k=1 instanton of Belavin et al. and topological gravity with the Eguchi-Hanson instanton. It turns out that naively empty theories are indeed nontrivial. Many unexpected interesting hidden quantities (punctures, contact terms, nonperturbative anomalies with or without gravity) are revealed. Topological Yang-Mills theory with G=SU(2) is not just Donaldson theory, but contains a certain link theory. Indeed, local and non-local observables have the property of marking cycles. Moreover, from topological gravity one learns that an object can be considered BRST exact only if it is so all over the moduli space M , boundary included. Being BRST exact in any interior point of M is not sufficient to make an amplitude vanish. Presumably, recursion relations and hierarchies can be found to solve topological field theories in four dimensions, in particular topological Yang-Mills theory with G=SU(2) on R 4 and topological gravity with the full set of asymptotically locally Euclidean manifolds. ((orig.))

  9. Global aspects of gauge anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, H.

    1988-01-01

    This dissertation discusses the global aspects of gauge anomalies in even dimensions. After a very brief description of local gauge anomalies, the possible global gauge anomalies for various gauge theories are discussed using homotopy theory. One of the main results obtained in a general formula for the SU(n - k) global gauge anomaly coefficient in arbitrary 2n dimensions. The result is expressed in terms of the James number of the Stiefel manifold SU(n + 1)/SU(n - k) and the generalized Dynkin indices. From this, the possibilities of SU(n), SU(n - 1), and SU(2) global gauge anomalies in arbitrary 2n dimensions have been determined. We have also determined the possibilities of global gauge anomalies for the gauge groups SP(2N) and SO(N) in certain general dimensions, as well as for the exceptional gauge groups in specific dimensions. Moreover, several general propositions are formulated and proved which are very useful in the study of global gauge anomalies

  10. Environmental consequences of Pollution and its Impact on earth's surface climate Using Geospatial Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Amit

    2016-07-01

    Modern transportation is an indispensable ingredient for development, allowing the pressure group of labor, supplies and goods, and enabling general public to access key resources and services. Climate change is a most important threat to sustainable development in any developing or developed country. Urban air pollution is on the rise, due to rapid economic and inhabitants growth and an increase in motorization. Modern transport is fundamental for improvement, allowing the movement of goods and enabling general public to access key resources and services. Travel today is relatively faster and people across the world are travelling more than ever before. Its stipulate regarding forecast is an indispensable part of transportation development in order to evaluate future needs of an urban area. Over increasing traffic concentration posed continued threat to ambient air quality and responsible for producing agents of physical condition hazards. Geospatial technology provides the smartest approach to resolve these inconvenience as it can cover a large area in a fraction of time. The research work focuses on the recognition of traffic intensities with increasing of SO2, NO2 and noise level considered at particular traffic sites in the Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, India. SO2, NO2 and Noise levels recorded in the city, are much higher than the permissible level and are likely to causes associated health and psychological illnesses to nearby inhabitant.

  11. Climate change and ocean deoxygenation within intensified surface-driven upwelling circulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakun, Andrew

    2017-09-13

    Ocean deoxygenation often takes place in proximity to zones of intense upwelling. Associated concerns about amplified ocean deoxygenation arise from an arguable likelihood that coastal upwelling systems in the world's oceans may further intensify as anthropogenic climate change proceeds. Comparative examples discussed include the uniquely intense seasonal Somali Current upwelling, the massive upwelling that occurs quasi-continuously off Namibia and the recently appearing and now annually recurring 'dead zone' off the US State of Oregon. The evident 'transience' in causal dynamics off Oregon is somewhat mirrored in an interannual-scale intermittence in eruptions of anaerobically formed noxious gases off Namibia. A mechanistic scheme draws the three examples towards a common context in which, in addition to the obvi