Are claims made in orthodontic journal advertisements evidence-supported?

Science.gov (United States)

Livas, Christos; Kouskoura, Thaleia; Ren, Yijin; Katsaros, Christos; Pandis, Nikolaos

2015-03-01

To examine the supporting evidence of advertisements published in six leading orthodontic journals. The 2012-2013 printed issues of American Journal of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics, Australian Orthodontic Journal, Journal of Orthodontics, European Journal of Orthodontics, Journal of Clinical Orthodontics, and Journal of Orofacial Orthopedics were screened for advertisements implying superior performance compared with competitor products. Advertisements were classified according to type of product, availability, and currency of supporting references. A total of 99 unique advertisements claiming clinical benefit or superiority were identified. The overwhelming majority of the identified advertisements promoted appliance products (62.6%), orthodontic materials (14.1%), and dental operatory equipment, including imaging systems (12.1%). Advertisements were found to provide references or not regardless of the product type. Half of the advertisements referred to at least one peer-reviewed publication, whereas unpublished studies were cited by 25% of the advertisements. Most of the referenced articles were published within the past 5 years. The scientific background of advertisements in the orthodontic literature appears limited. While surveillance of journal advertising needs to be regulated, clinicians are urged to critically appraise the claims being made in orthodontic print advertisements by consulting the associated existing evidence.

On the Support of Minimizers of Causal Variational Principles

Science.gov (United States)

Finster, Felix; Schiefeneder, Daniela

2013-11-01

A class of causal variational principles on a compact manifold is introduced and analyzed both numerically and analytically. It is proved under general assumptions that the support of a minimizing measure is either completely timelike, or it is singular in the sense that its interior is empty. In the examples of the circle, the sphere and certain flag manifolds, the general results are supplemented by a more detailed and explicit analysis of the minimizers. On the sphere, we get a connection to packing problems and the Tammes distribution. Moreover, the minimal action is estimated from above and below.

41 CFR 302-17.10 - Claims for payment and supporting documentation and verification.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... supporting documentation and verification. 302-17.10 Section 302-17.10 Public Contracts and Property... INCOME TAX (RIT) ALLOWANCE § 302-17.10 Claims for payment and supporting documentation and verification..., net earnings (or loss) from self-employment income shown on attached Schedule SE (Form 1040): Form(s)W...

Unexpected findings and promoting monocausal claims, a cautionary tale.

Science.gov (United States)

Copeland, Samantha Marie

2017-10-01

Stories of serendipitous discoveries in medicine incorrectly imply that the path from an unexpected observation to major discovery is straightforward or guaranteed. In this paper, I examine a case from the field of research about chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS). In Norway, an unexpected positive result during clinical care has led to the development of a research programme into the potential for the immunosuppressant drug rituximab to relieve the symptoms of CFS. The media and public have taken up researchers' speculations that their research results indicate a causal mechanism for CFS - consequently, patients now have great hope that 'the cause' of CFS has been found, and thus, a cure is sure to follow. I argue that a monocausal claim cannot be correctly asserted, either on the basis of the single case of an unexpected, although positive, result or on the basis of the empirical research that has followed up on that result. Further, assertion and promotion of this claim will have specific harmful effects: it threatens to inappropriately narrow the scope of research on CFS, might misdirect research altogether, and could directly and indirectly harm patients. Therefore, the CFS case presents a cautionary tale, illustrating the risks involved in drawing a theoretical hypothesis from an unexpected observation. Further, I draw attention to the tendency in contemporary clinical research with CFS to promote new research directions on the basis of reductive causal models of that syndrome. Particularly, in the case of CFS research, underdetermination and causal complexity undermine the potential value of a monocausal claim. In sum, when an unexpected finding occurs in clinical practice or medical research, the value of following up on that finding is to be found not in the projected value of a singular causal relationship inferred from the finding but rather in the process of research that follows. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Answer to 'Information flow, causality, and the classical theory of tachyons'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Recami, E.; Pavsic, M.

1978-01-01

Recently Basano (Int. J. Theor. Phys.; 16:715 (1977)) in a paper entitled 'Information Flow, Causality and the Classical Theory of Tachyons' commented on earlier work by the present authors. In answer to those comments it is pointed out that although 'Extended Relativity' seems to allow one to solve any causal paradoxes with both usual particles and tachyons nevertheless a number of paradoxes are continuously proposed. It has already been shown by the authors that tachyons possibly do not imply any causality violations even in macro-physics but Basano claimed that the procedure lead to new, different paradoxes. It is here demonstrated that such presumed difficulties do not exist. (U.K.)

How Danes evaluate moral claims related to abortion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Uldall, Sigurd Wiingaard

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To investigate how Danish citizens evaluate four moral claims related to abortion issues, regarding the moral status of the fetus, autonomy, harm and possible negative consequences of allowing abortion and to explore the association between moral beliefs and attitudes towards abortion...... to at least one moral claim. Two hundred and fifty-eight responded to all four claims without using the option 'neither agree nor disagree' and were classified as 'morally engaged responders'. A majority of these had a pro-abortion moral. The general relationship between moral beliefs and attitudes towards...... abortion was morally sound. Being 'morally engaged' did not increase the likelihood of reaching moral judgement on whether requests for abortion should be permitted. Education, religion and parenthood were statistically associated with the investigated issues. DISCUSSION: The direction of causality...

Scientific realism in particle physics a causal approach

CERN Document Server

Egg, Matthias

2014-01-01

Does particle physics really describe the basic constituents of the material world or is it just a useful tool for deriving empirical predictions? This book proposes a novel answer to that question, emphasizing the importance of causal reasoning for the justification of scientific claims. It thereby responds to general worries about scientific realism as well as to more specific challenges stemming from the interpretation of quantum physics.

Causal knowledge and reasoning in decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hagmayer, Y.; Witteman, C.L.M.

2017-01-01

Normative causal decision theories argue that people should use their causal knowledge in decision making. Based on these ideas, we argue that causal knowledge and reasoning may support and thereby potentially improve decision making based on expected outcomes, narratives, and even cues. We will

Causal and causally separable processes

Science.gov (United States)

Oreshkov, Ognyan; Giarmatzi, Christina

2016-09-01

The idea that events are equipped with a partial causal order is central to our understanding of physics in the tested regimes: given two pointlike events A and B, either A is in the causal past of B, B is in the causal past of A, or A and B are space-like separated. Operationally, the meaning of these order relations corresponds to constraints on the possible correlations between experiments performed in the vicinities of the respective events: if A is in the causal past of B, an experimenter at A could signal to an experimenter at B but not the other way around, while if A and B are space-like separated, no signaling is possible in either direction. In the context of a concrete physical theory, the correlations compatible with a given causal configuration may obey further constraints. For instance, space-like correlations in quantum mechanics arise from local measurements on joint quantum states, while time-like correlations are established via quantum channels. Similarly to other variables, however, the causal order of a set of events could be random, and little is understood about the constraints that causality implies in this case. A main difficulty concerns the fact that the order of events can now generally depend on the operations performed at the locations of these events, since, for instance, an operation at A could influence the order in which B and C occur in A’s future. So far, no formal theory of causality compatible with such dynamical causal order has been developed. Apart from being of fundamental interest in the context of inferring causal relations, such a theory is imperative for understanding recent suggestions that the causal order of events in quantum mechanics can be indefinite. Here, we develop such a theory in the general multipartite case. Starting from a background-independent definition of causality, we derive an iteratively formulated canonical decomposition of multipartite causal correlations. For a fixed number of settings and

Causal and causally separable processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oreshkov, Ognyan; Giarmatzi, Christina

2016-01-01

The idea that events are equipped with a partial causal order is central to our understanding of physics in the tested regimes: given two pointlike events A and B , either A is in the causal past of B , B is in the causal past of A , or A and B are space-like separated. Operationally, the meaning of these order relations corresponds to constraints on the possible correlations between experiments performed in the vicinities of the respective events: if A is in the causal past of B , an experimenter at A could signal to an experimenter at B but not the other way around, while if A and B are space-like separated, no signaling is possible in either direction. In the context of a concrete physical theory, the correlations compatible with a given causal configuration may obey further constraints. For instance, space-like correlations in quantum mechanics arise from local measurements on joint quantum states, while time-like correlations are established via quantum channels. Similarly to other variables, however, the causal order of a set of events could be random, and little is understood about the constraints that causality implies in this case. A main difficulty concerns the fact that the order of events can now generally depend on the operations performed at the locations of these events, since, for instance, an operation at A could influence the order in which B and C occur in A ’s future. So far, no formal theory of causality compatible with such dynamical causal order has been developed. Apart from being of fundamental interest in the context of inferring causal relations, such a theory is imperative for understanding recent suggestions that the causal order of events in quantum mechanics can be indefinite. Here, we develop such a theory in the general multipartite case. Starting from a background-independent definition of causality, we derive an iteratively formulated canonical decomposition of multipartite causal correlations. For a fixed number of settings and

Chiropractic claims in the English-speaking world.

Science.gov (United States)

Ernst, Edzard; Gilbey, Andrew

2010-04-09

Some chiropractors and their associations claim that chiropractic is effective for conditions that lack sound supporting evidence or scientific rationale. This study therefore sought to determine the frequency of World Wide Web claims of chiropractors and their associations to treat, asthma, headache/migraine, infant colic, colic, ear infection/earache/otitis media, neck pain, whiplash (not supported by sound evidence), and lower back pain (supported by some evidence). A review of 200 chiropractor websites and 9 chiropractic associations' World Wide Web claims in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States was conducted between 1 October 2008 and 26 November 2008. The outcome measure was claims (either direct or indirect) regarding the eight reviewed conditions, made in the context of chiropractic treatment. We found evidence that 190 (95%) chiropractor websites made unsubstantiated claims regarding at least one of the conditions. When colic and infant colic data were collapsed into one heading, there was evidence that 76 (38%) chiropractor websites made unsubstantiated claims about all the conditions not supported by sound evidence. Fifty-six (28%) websites and 4 of the 9 (44%) associations made claims about lower back pain, whereas 179 (90%) websites and all 9 associations made unsubstantiated claims about headache/migraine. Unsubstantiated claims were made about asthma, ear infection/earache/otitis media, neck pain, The majority of chiropractors and their associations in the English-speaking world seem to make therapeutic claims that are not supported by sound evidence, whilst only 28% of chiropractor websites promote lower back pain, which is supported by some evidence. We suggest the ubiquity of the unsubstantiated claims constitutes an ethical and public health issue.

Randomised controlled trials cited in pharmaceutical advertisements targeting New Zealand health professionals: do they support the advertising claims and what is the risk of bias?

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Alison; Parkin, Lianne

2015-09-04

To determine whether pharmaceutical advertisement claims targeting health professionals were supported by the randomised controlled trials (RCTs) cited in the advertisements, and to assess the risk of bias in those trials. Pharmaceutical advertisements were obtained from New Zealand Doctor and Pharmacy Today for the period July 2013 to June 2014. All claims made regarding efficacy, safety, and indications were identified and RCTs cited to substantiate these claims were examined. A claim was defined as supported by an RCT if the conclusions drawn in the paper were consistent with the claim. The quality of the RCT was assessed separately, using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. In 25 (19%) of the 133 instances in which an RCT was cited, the published paper did not support the promotional claim. Moreover, there were only 10 (8%) instances in which the claim was supported by an RCT with a low risk of bias. Of the 78 cited RCTs, only 14% had a low risk of bias, while 49% had an unclear risk and 37% had a high risk. A high proportion of advertisements failed to meet New Zealand regulatory requirements that claims "are valid and have been substantiated".

Causal inference in public health.

Science.gov (United States)

Glass, Thomas A; Goodman, Steven N; Hernán, Miguel A; Samet, Jonathan M

2013-01-01

Causal inference has a central role in public health; the determination that an association is causal indicates the possibility for intervention. We review and comment on the long-used guidelines for interpreting evidence as supporting a causal association and contrast them with the potential outcomes framework that encourages thinking in terms of causes that are interventions. We argue that in public health this framework is more suitable, providing an estimate of an action's consequences rather than the less precise notion of a risk factor's causal effect. A variety of modern statistical methods adopt this approach. When an intervention cannot be specified, causal relations can still exist, but how to intervene to change the outcome will be unclear. In application, the often-complex structure of causal processes needs to be acknowledged and appropriate data collected to study them. These newer approaches need to be brought to bear on the increasingly complex public health challenges of our globalized world.

Darwin, Veblen and the problem of causality in economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Hodgson, G M

2001-01-01

This article discusses some of the ways in which Darwinism has influenced a small minority of economists. It is argued that Darwinism involves a philosophical as well as a theoretical doctrine. Despite claims to the contrary, the uses of analogies to Darwinian natural selection theory are highly limited in economics. Exceptions include Thorstein Veblen, Richard Nelson, and Sidney Winter. At the philosophical level, one of the key features of Darwinism is its notion of detailed understanding in terms of chains of cause and effect. This issue is discussed in the context of the problem of causality in social theory. At least in Darwinian terms, the prevailing causal dualism--of intentional and mechanical causality--in the social sciences is found wanting. Once again, Veblen was the first economist to understand the implications for economics of Darwinism at this philosophical level. For Veblen, it was related to his notion of 'cumulative causation'. The article concludes with a discussion of the problems and potential of this Veblenian position.

The effectiveness of insurer-supported safety and health engineering controls in reducing workers' compensation claims and costs.

Science.gov (United States)

Wurzelbacher, Steven J; Bertke, Stephen J; Lampl, Michael P; Bushnell, P Timothy; Meyers, Alysha R; Robins, David C; Al-Tarawneh, Ibraheem S

2014-12-01

This study evaluated the effectiveness of a program in which a workers' compensation (WC) insurer provided matching funds to insured employers to implement safety/health engineering controls. Pre- and post-intervention WC metrics were compiled for the employees designated as affected by the interventions within 468 employers for interventions occurring from 2003 to 2009. Poisson, two-part, and linear regression models with repeated measures were used to evaluate differences in pre- and post-data, controlling for time trends independent of the interventions. For affected employees, total WC claim frequency rates (both medical-only and lost-time claims) decreased 66%, lost-time WC claim frequency rates decreased 78%, WC paid cost per employee decreased 81%, and WC geometric mean paid claim cost decreased 30% post-intervention. Reductions varied by employer size, specific industry, and intervention type. The insurer-supported safety/health engineering control program was effective in reducing WC claims and costs for affected employees. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Train in vain: the role of the self in claimed self-handicapping strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Finez, Lucie; Sherman, David K

2012-10-01

Two field studies investigate the role of self in the tendency of athletes to engage in claimed handicapping strategies during training (anticipatively claiming that handicaps may interfere with their performance). Study 1 tested the relationship between trait self-esteem and athletes' engagement in claimed self-handicapping. As hypothesized, low physical self-esteem athletes claimed more handicaps than high physical self-esteem athletes. For stronger evidence for the causal role of the self, Study 2 tested whether securing athletes' self-worth through self-affirmation would lead to decreased claimed self-handicapping by using a mixed model design that allows for both between-subjects (affirmation vs. control condition) and within-subject comparisons (before vs. after self-affirmation intervention). Self-affirmed athletes had decreased levels of claimed self-handicapping. Studies 1 and 2 also demonstrate that athletes engage in claimed self-handicapping during training, which could have deleterious effects on subsequent performance. Discussion centers on theoretical implications and applications for coaches, sport teachers, and sport psychologists.

Causally nonseparable processes admitting a causal model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feix, Adrien; Araújo, Mateus; Brukner, Caslav

2016-01-01

A recent framework of quantum theory with no global causal order predicts the existence of ‘causally nonseparable’ processes. Some of these processes produce correlations incompatible with any causal order (they violate so-called ‘causal inequalities’ analogous to Bell inequalities ) while others do not (they admit a ‘causal model’ analogous to a local model ). Here we show for the first time that bipartite causally nonseparable processes with a causal model exist, and give evidence that they have no clear physical interpretation. We also provide an algorithm to generate processes of this kind and show that they have nonzero measure in the set of all processes. We demonstrate the existence of processes which stop violating causal inequalities but are still causally nonseparable when mixed with a certain amount of ‘white noise’. This is reminiscent of the behavior of Werner states in the context of entanglement and nonlocality. Finally, we provide numerical evidence for the existence of causally nonseparable processes which have a causal model even when extended with an entangled state shared among the parties. (paper)

Narrative and evidence. How can case studies from the history of science support claims in the philosophy of science?

Science.gov (United States)

Kinzel, Katherina

2015-02-01

A common method for warranting the historical adequacy of philosophical claims is that of relying on historical case studies. This paper addresses the question as to what evidential support historical case studies can provide to philosophical claims and doctrines. It argues that in order to assess the evidential functions of historical case studies, we first need to understand the methodology involved in producing them. To this end, an account of historical reconstruction that emphasizes the narrative character of historical accounts and the theory-laden character of historical facts is introduced. The main conclusion of this paper is that historical case studies are able to provide philosophical claims with some evidential support, but that, due to theory-ladenness, their evidential import is restricted. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Health Claims Data Warehouse (HCDW)

Data.gov (United States)

Office of Personnel Management — The Health Claims Data Warehouse (HCDW) will receive and analyze health claims data to support management and administrative purposes. The Federal Employee Health...

Are the claims made in orthopaedic print advertisements valid?

Science.gov (United States)

Davidson, Donald J; Rankin, Kenneth S; Jensen, Cyrus D; Moverley, Robert; Reed, Mike R; Sprowson, Andrew P

2014-05-01

Advertisements are commonplace in orthopaedic journals and may influence the readership with claims of clinical and scientific fact. Since the last assessment of the claims made in orthopaedic print advertisements ten years ago, there have been legislative changes and media scrutiny which have shaped this practice. The purpose of this study is to re-evaluate these claims. Fifty claims from 50 advertisements were chosen randomly from six highly respected peer-reviewed orthopaedic journals (published July-December 2011). The evidence supporting each claim was assessed and validated by three orthopaedic surgeons. The assessors, blinded to product and company, rated the evidence and answered the following questions: Does the evidence as presented support the claim made in the advertisement and what is the quality of that evidence? Is the claim supported by enough evidence to influence your own clinical practice? Twenty-eight claims cited evidence from published literature, four from public presentations, 11 from manufacturer "data held on file" and seven had no supporting evidence. Only 12 claims were considered to have high-quality evidence and only 11 were considered well supported. A strong correlation was seen between the quality of evidence and strength of support (Spearman r = 0.945, p advertisements. High-quality evidence is required by orthopaedic surgeons to influence clinical practice and this evidence should be sought by manufacturers wishing to market a successful product.

Causal language and strength of inference in academic and media articles shared in social media (CLAIMS): A systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Haber, Noah; Smith, Emily R; Moscoe, Ellen; Andrews, Kathryn; Audy, Robin; Bell, Winnie; Brennan, Alana T; Breskin, Alexander; Kane, Jeremy C; Karra, Mahesh; McClure, Elizabeth S; Suarez, Elizabeth A

2018-01-01

The pathway from evidence generation to consumption contains many steps which can lead to overstatement or misinformation. The proliferation of internet-based health news may encourage selection of media and academic research articles that overstate strength of causal inference. We investigated the state of causal inference in health research as it appears at the end of the pathway, at the point of social media consumption. We screened the NewsWhip Insights database for the most shared media articles on Facebook and Twitter reporting about peer-reviewed academic studies associating an exposure with a health outcome in 2015, extracting the 50 most-shared academic articles and media articles covering them. We designed and utilized a review tool to systematically assess and summarize studies' strength of causal inference, including generalizability, potential confounders, and methods used. These were then compared with the strength of causal language used to describe results in both academic and media articles. Two randomly assigned independent reviewers and one arbitrating reviewer from a pool of 21 reviewers assessed each article. We accepted the most shared 64 media articles pertaining to 50 academic articles for review, representing 68% of Facebook and 45% of Twitter shares in 2015. Thirty-four percent of academic studies and 48% of media articles used language that reviewers considered too strong for their strength of causal inference. Seventy percent of academic studies were considered low or very low strength of inference, with only 6% considered high or very high strength of causal inference. The most severe issues with academic studies' causal inference were reported to be omitted confounding variables and generalizability. Fifty-eight percent of media articles were found to have inaccurately reported the question, results, intervention, or population of the academic study. We find a large disparity between the strength of language as presented to the

The influence of linguistic and cognitive factors on the time course of verb-based implicit causality.

Science.gov (United States)

Koornneef, Arnout; Dotlačil, Jakub; van den Broek, Paul; Sanders, Ted

2016-01-01

In three eye-tracking experiments the influence of the Dutch causal connective "want" (because) and the working memory capacity of readers on the usage of verb-based implicit causality was examined. Experiments 1 and 2 showed that although a causal connective is not required to activate implicit causality information during reading, effects of implicit causality surfaced more rapidly and were more pronounced when a connective was present in the discourse than when it was absent. In addition, Experiment 3 revealed that-in contrast to previous claims-the activation of implicit causality is not a resource-consuming mental operation. Moreover, readers with higher and lower working memory capacities behaved differently in a dual-task situation. Higher span readers were more likely to use implicit causality when they had all their working memory resources at their disposal. Lower span readers showed the opposite pattern as they were more likely to use the implicit causality cue in the case of an additional working memory load. The results emphasize that both linguistic and cognitive factors mediate the impact of implicit causality on text comprehension. The implications of these results are discussed in terms of the ongoing controversies in the literature-that is, the focusing-integration debate and the debates on the source of implicit causality.

40 CFR 35.6600 - Contractor claims.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Contractor claims. 35.6600 Section 35... Actions Procurement Requirements Under A Cooperative Agreement § 35.6600 Contractor claims. (a) General... prepared by the contractor to support a claim against the recipient; and (4) The award official determines...

Causality and Free Will

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Hvorecký, Juraj

2012-01-01

Roč. 19, Supp.2 (2012), s. 64-69 ISSN 1335-0668 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP401/12/0833 Institutional support: RVO:67985955 Keywords : conciousness * free will * determinism * causality Subject RIV: AA - Philosophy ; Religion

Gateway Effects: Why the Cited Evidence Does Not Support Their Existence for Low-Risk Tobacco Products (and What Evidence Would

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carl V. Phillips

2015-05-01

Full Text Available It is often claimed that low-risk drugs still create harm because of “gateway effects”, in which they cause the use of a high-risk alternative. Such claims are popular among opponents of tobacco harm reduction, claiming that low-risk tobacco products (e.g., e-cigarettes, smokeless tobacco cause people to start smoking, sometimes backed by empirical studies that ostensibly support the claim. However, these studies consistently ignore the obvious alternative causal pathways, particularly that observed associations might represent causation in the opposite direction (smoking causes people to seek low-risk alternatives or confounding (the same individual characteristics increase the chance of using any tobacco product. Due to these complications, any useful analysis must deal with simultaneity and confounding by common cause. In practice, existing analyses seem almost as if they were designed to provide teaching examples about drawing simplistic and unsupported causal conclusions from observed associations. The present analysis examines what evidence and research strategies would be needed to empirically detect such a gateway effect, if there were one, explaining key methodological concepts including causation and confounding, examining the logic of the claim, identifying potentially useful data, and debunking common fallacies on both sides of the argument, as well as presenting an extended example of proper empirical testing. The analysis demonstrates that none of the empirical studies to date that are purported to show a gateway effect from tobacco harm reduction products actually does so. The observations and approaches can be generalized to other cases where observed association of individual characteristics in cross-sectional data could result from any of several causal relationships.

Quality of claims and references found in Australian pharmacy journal advertisements.

Science.gov (United States)

Mandoh, Mona; Curtain, Colin Michael

2017-10-01

To evaluate the quality of pharmaceutical advertisement claims and supporting references in Australian pharmacy journals that target community pharmacists. All full-page advertisements for a medicinal product, found in two Australian pharmacy journals from the year 2012 to 2015 were included. Advertisement claims and references were evaluated by claim type (unambiguous to immeasurable) and level of evidence (strong to irrelevant) in supporting references. Two hundred and ninety distinct advertisements and 598 claims were identified, with a median of 2 claims per advertisement. Twenty-seven percent of claims were unambiguous, 40% were vague, 16% were emotive/immeasurable and 17% were non-clinical or other marketing claims. Half of all claims were referenced. Although 68% of unambiguous claims were referenced, 63% of those were supported by studies that were funded directly or indirectly by pharmaceutical companies. Only 13% of claims were supported with strong or moderate independent evidence. Pharmaceutical advertisements continue to present vague and emotive claims with little independent supporting evidence. Pharmacists need to be aware of these limitations when providing patient care. Increased awareness of this issue among pharmaceutical companies, Australian pharmaceutical journal publishers, regulators and pharmacists will assist in promoting optimised healthcare outcomes for the Australian public. © 2016 Royal Pharmaceutical Society.

Causal imprinting in causal structure learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Eric G; Ahn, Woo-Kyoung

2012-11-01

Suppose one observes a correlation between two events, B and C, and infers that B causes C. Later one discovers that event A explains away the correlation between B and C. Normatively, one should now dismiss or weaken the belief that B causes C. Nonetheless, participants in the current study who observed a positive contingency between B and C followed by evidence that B and C were independent given A, persisted in believing that B causes C. The authors term this difficulty in revising initially learned causal structures "causal imprinting." Throughout four experiments, causal imprinting was obtained using multiple dependent measures and control conditions. A Bayesian analysis showed that causal imprinting may be normative under some conditions, but causal imprinting also occurred in the current study when it was clearly non-normative. It is suggested that causal imprinting occurs due to the influence of prior knowledge on how reasoners interpret later evidence. Consistent with this view, when participants first viewed the evidence showing that B and C are independent given A, later evidence with only B and C did not lead to the belief that B causes C. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bell-type experiments and the concept of locally stochastic causality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andaas, H.E.

1992-08-01

The concept of locally stochastic causality (LSC), related to the theory of local beables suggested by Bell, is introduced. It is argued that the experiments performed to verify the predictions of Bell's inequalities have merely been tests for the possibility of a description of nature in terms of joint probability distributions for the observables and that they do not provide sufficient results to sustain claims that theories based upon LSC have been falsified. 31 refs., 5 figs

Narrative persuasion, causality, complex integration, and support for obesity policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Niederdeppe, Jeff; Shapiro, Michael A; Kim, Hye Kyung; Bartolo, Danielle; Porticella, Norman

2014-01-01

Narrative messages have the potential to convey causal attribution information about complex social issues. This study examined attributions about obesity, an issue characterized by interrelated biological, behavioral, and environmental causes. Participants were randomly assigned to read one of three narratives emphasizing societal causes and solutions for obesity or an unrelated story that served as the control condition. The three narratives varied in the extent to which the character in the story acknowledged personal responsibility (high, moderate, and none) for controlling her weight. Stories that featured no acknowledgment and moderate acknowledgment of personal responsibility, while emphasizing environmental causes and solutions, were successful at increasing societal cause attributions about obesity and, among conservatives, increasing support for obesity-related policies relative to the control group. The extent to which respondents were able to make connections between individual and environmental causes of obesity (complex integration) mediated the relationship between the moderate acknowledgment condition and societal cause attributions. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of this work for narrative persuasion theory and health communication campaigns.

27 CFR 70.608 - Action on claims.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... Section 70.608 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO TAX AND TRADE BUREAU, DEPARTMENT... appropriate TTB officer shall date stamp and examine each claim filed under this subpart and will determine the validity of the claim. Claims and supporting data involving customs duties will be forwarded to...

Optimal causal inference: estimating stored information and approximating causal architecture.

Science.gov (United States)

Still, Susanne; Crutchfield, James P; Ellison, Christopher J

2010-09-01

We introduce an approach to inferring the causal architecture of stochastic dynamical systems that extends rate-distortion theory to use causal shielding--a natural principle of learning. We study two distinct cases of causal inference: optimal causal filtering and optimal causal estimation. Filtering corresponds to the ideal case in which the probability distribution of measurement sequences is known, giving a principled method to approximate a system's causal structure at a desired level of representation. We show that in the limit in which a model-complexity constraint is relaxed, filtering finds the exact causal architecture of a stochastic dynamical system, known as the causal-state partition. From this, one can estimate the amount of historical information the process stores. More generally, causal filtering finds a graded model-complexity hierarchy of approximations to the causal architecture. Abrupt changes in the hierarchy, as a function of approximation, capture distinct scales of structural organization. For nonideal cases with finite data, we show how the correct number of the underlying causal states can be found by optimal causal estimation. A previously derived model-complexity control term allows us to correct for the effect of statistical fluctuations in probability estimates and thereby avoid overfitting.

Causal pathways between substance use disorders and personality pathology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verheul, R.; van den Brink, W.

2005-01-01

A high co-occurrence between personality and substance use disorders suggests causal relationships between these conditions. Most empirical evidence strongly supports causal pathways in which (pathological) personality traits contribute to the development of a substance use disorder (i.e., primary

An Information Processing Approach to Children's Causal Reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Siegler, Robert S.

This paper questions evidence for the thesis that causal reasoning of older children is more logical than that of younger ones, and describes two experiments which attempted to determine (1) whether there are true developmental differences in causal reasoning, and (2) what explanations for developmental differences can be supported. In the first…

Causality

Science.gov (United States)

Pearl, Judea

2000-03-01

Written by one of the pre-eminent researchers in the field, this book provides a comprehensive exposition of modern analysis of causation. It shows how causality has grown from a nebulous concept into a mathematical theory with significant applications in the fields of statistics, artificial intelligence, philosophy, cognitive science, and the health and social sciences. Pearl presents a unified account of the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual and structural approaches to causation, and devises simple mathematical tools for analyzing the relationships between causal connections, statistical associations, actions and observations. The book will open the way for including causal analysis in the standard curriculum of statistics, artifical intelligence, business, epidemiology, social science and economics. Students in these areas will find natural models, simple identification procedures, and precise mathematical definitions of causal concepts that traditional texts have tended to evade or make unduly complicated. This book will be of interest to professionals and students in a wide variety of fields. Anyone who wishes to elucidate meaningful relationships from data, predict effects of actions and policies, assess explanations of reported events, or form theories of causal understanding and causal speech will find this book stimulating and invaluable.

16 CFR 260.7 - Environmental marketing claims.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... pieces if left uncovered in sunlight.” The claim is supported by competent and reliable scientific... sunlight and into sufficiently small pieces to become part of the soil. The qualified claim is not... time. The claim is not deceptive. Example 4: A plastic six-pack ring carrier is marked with a small...

World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nazlioglu, Saban

2011-01-01

The increasing co-movements between the world oil and agricultural commodity prices have renewed interest in determining price transmission from oil prices to those of agricultural commodities. This study extends the literature on the oil-agricultural commodity prices nexus, which particularly concentrates on nonlinear causal relationships between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). To this end, the linear causality approach of Toda-Yamamoto and the nonparametric causality method of Diks-Panchenko are applied to the weekly data spanning from 1994 to 2010. The linear causality analysis indicates that the oil prices and the agricultural commodity prices do not influence each other, which supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. In contrast, the nonlinear causality analysis shows that: (i) there are nonlinear feedbacks between the oil and the agricultural prices, and (ii) there is a persistent unidirectional nonlinear causality running from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices. The findings from the nonlinear causality analysis therefore provide clues for better understanding the recent dynamics of the agricultural commodity prices and some policy implications for policy makers, farmers, and global investors. This study also suggests the directions for future studies. - Research highlights: → This study determines the price transmission mechanisms between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). → The linear and nonlinear cointegration and causality methods are carried out. → The linear causality analysis supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. → The nonlinear causality analysis shows that there is a persistent unidirectional causality from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices.

The discourse of causal explanations in school science

Science.gov (United States)

Slater, Tammy Jayne Anne

Researchers and educators working from a systemic functional linguistic perspective have provided a body of work on science discourse which offers an excellent starting point for examining the linguistic aspects of the development of causal discourse in school science, discourse which Derewianka (1995) claimed is critical to success in secondary school. No work has yet described the development of causal language by identifying the linguistic features present in oral discourse or by comparing the causal discourse of native and non-native (ESL) speakers of English. The current research responds to this gap by examining the oral discourse collected from ESL and non-ESL students at the primary and high school grades. Specifically, it asks the following questions: (1) How do the teachers and students in these four contexts develop causal explanations and their relevant taxonomies through classroom interactions? (2) What are the causal discourse features being used by the students in these four contexts to construct oral causal explanations? The findings of the social practice analysis showed that the teachers in the four contexts differed in their approaches to teaching, with the primary school mainstream teacher focusing largely on the hands-on practice , the primary school ESL teacher moving from practice to theory, the high school mainstream teacher moving from theory to practice, and the high school ESL teacher relying primarily on theory. The findings from the quantitative, small corpus approach suggest that the developmental path of cause which has been identified in the writing of experts shows up not only in written texts but also in the oral texts which learners construct. Moreover, this move appears when the discourse of high school ESL and non-ESL students is compared, suggesting a developmental progression in the acquisition of these features by these students. The findings also reveal that the knowledge constructed, as shown by the concept maps created

On minimizers of causal variational principles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schiefeneder, Daniela

2011-01-01

Causal variational principles are a class of nonlinear minimization problems which arise in a formulation of relativistic quantum theory referred to as the fermionic projector approach. This thesis is devoted to a numerical and analytic study of the minimizers of a general class of causal variational principles. We begin with a numerical investigation of variational principles for the fermionic projector in discrete space-time. It is shown that for sufficiently many space-time points, the minimizing fermionic projector induces non-trivial causal relations on the space-time points. We then generalize the setting by introducing a class of causal variational principles for measures on a compact manifold. In our main result we prove under general assumptions that the support of a minimizing measure is either completely timelike, or it is singular in the sense that its interior is empty. In the examples of the circle, the sphere and certain flag manifolds, the general results are supplemented by a more detailed analysis of the minimizers. (orig.)

Theories of Causality

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Robert

2010-03-01

There are a wide range of views on causality. To some (e.g. Karl Popper) causality is superfluous. Bertrand Russell said ``In advanced science the word cause never occurs. Causality is a relic of a bygone age.'' At the other extreme Rafael Sorkin and L. Bombelli suggest that space and time do not exist but are only an approximation to a reality that is simply a discrete ordered set, a ``causal set.'' For them causality IS reality. Others, like Judea Pearl and Nancy Cartwright are seaking to build a complex fundamental theory of causality (Causality, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2000) Or perhaps a theory of causality is simply the theory of functions. This is more or less my take on causality.

Causal beliefs about depression in different cultural groups – What do cognitive psychological theories of causal learning and reasoning predict?

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York eHagmayer

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Cognitive psychological research focusses on causal learning and reasoning while cognitive anthropological and social science research tend to focus on systems of beliefs. Our aim was to explore how these two types of research can inform each other. Cognitive psychological theories (causal model theory and causal Bayes nets were used to derive predictions for systems of causal beliefs. These predictions were then applied to lay theories of depression as a specific test case. A systematic literature review on causal beliefs about depression was conducted, including original, quantitative research. Thirty-six studies investigating 13 non-Western and 32 Western cultural groups were analysed by classifying assumed causes and preferred forms of treatment into common categories. Relations between beliefs and treatment preferences were assessed. Substantial agreement between cultural groups was found with respect to the impact of observable causes. Stress was generally rated as most important. Less agreement resulted for hidden, especially supernatural causes. Causal beliefs were clearly related to treatment preferences in Western groups, while evidence was mostly lacking for non-Western groups. Overall predictions were supported, but there were considerable methodological limitations. Pointers to future research, which may combine studies on causal beliefs with experimental paradigms on causal reasoning, are given.

Preschoolers prefer to learn causal information

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Aubry eAlvarez

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Young children, in general, appear to have a strong drive to explore the environment in ways that reveal its underlying causal structure. But are they really attuned specifically to casual information in this quest for understanding, or do they show equal interest in other types of non-obvious information about the world? To answer this question, we introduced 20 three-year-old children to two puppets who were anxious to tell the child about a set of novel artifacts and animals. One puppet consistently described causal properties of the items while the other puppet consistently described carefully matched non-causal properties of the same items. After a familiarization period in which children learned which type of information to expect from each informant, children were given the opportunity to choose which they wanted to hear describe each of eight pictured test items. On average, children chose to hear from the informant that provided causal descriptions on 72% of the trials. This preference for causal information has important implications for explaining the role of conceptual information in supporting early learning and may suggest means for maximizing interest and motivation in young children.

Which causal structures might support a quantum-classical gap?

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Pienaar, Jacques

2017-04-01

A causal scenario is a graph that describes the cause and effect relationships between all relevant variables in an experiment. A scenario is deemed ‘not interesting’ if there is no device-independent way to distinguish the predictions of classical physics from any generalised probabilistic theory (including quantum mechanics). Conversely, an interesting scenario is one in which there exists a gap between the predictions of different operational probabilistic theories, as occurs for example in Bell-type experiments. Henson, Lal and Pusey (HLP) recently proposed a sufficient condition for a causal scenario to not be interesting. In this paper we supplement their analysis with some new techniques and results. We first show that existing graphical techniques due to Evans can be used to confirm by inspection that many graphs are interesting without having to explicitly search for inequality violations. For three exceptional cases—the graphs numbered \\#15,16,20 in HLP—we show that there exist non-Shannon type entropic inequalities that imply these graphs are interesting. In doing so, we find that existing methods of entropic inequalities can be greatly enhanced by conditioning on the specific values of certain variables.

THE CAUSAL ANALYSIS / DIAGNOSIS DECISION ...

Science.gov (United States)

CADDIS is an on-line decision support system that helps investigators in the regions, states and tribes find, access, organize, use and share information to produce causal evaluations in aquatic systems. It is based on the US EPA's Stressor Identification process which is a formal method for identifying causes of impairments in aquatic systems. CADDIS 2007 increases access to relevant information useful for causal analysis and provides methods and tools that practitioners can use to analyze their own data. The new Candidate Cause section provides overviews of commonly encountered causes of impairments to aquatic systems: metals, sediments, nutrients, flow alteration, temperature, ionic strength, and low dissolved oxygen. CADDIS includes new Conceptual Models that illustrate the relationships from sources to stressors to biological effects. An Interactive Conceptual Model for phosphorus links the diagram with supporting literature citations. The new Analyzing Data section helps practitioners analyze their data sets and interpret and use those results as evidence within the USEPA causal assessment process. Downloadable tools include a graphical user interface statistical package (CADStat), and programs for use with the freeware R statistical package, and a Microsoft Excel template. These tools can be used to quantify associations between causes and biological impairments using innovative methods such as species-sensitivity distributions, biological inferenc

[Causal analysis approaches in epidemiology].

Science.gov (United States)

Dumas, O; Siroux, V; Le Moual, N; Varraso, R

2014-02-01

Epidemiological research is mostly based on observational studies. Whether such studies can provide evidence of causation remains discussed. Several causal analysis methods have been developed in epidemiology. This paper aims at presenting an overview of these methods: graphical models, path analysis and its extensions, and models based on the counterfactual approach, with a special emphasis on marginal structural models. Graphical approaches have been developed to allow synthetic representations of supposed causal relationships in a given problem. They serve as qualitative support in the study of causal relationships. The sufficient-component cause model has been developed to deal with the issue of multicausality raised by the emergence of chronic multifactorial diseases. Directed acyclic graphs are mostly used as a visual tool to identify possible confounding sources in a study. Structural equations models, the main extension of path analysis, combine a system of equations and a path diagram, representing a set of possible causal relationships. They allow quantifying direct and indirect effects in a general model in which several relationships can be tested simultaneously. Dynamic path analysis further takes into account the role of time. The counterfactual approach defines causality by comparing the observed event and the counterfactual event (the event that would have been observed if, contrary to the fact, the subject had received a different exposure than the one he actually received). This theoretical approach has shown limits of traditional methods to address some causality questions. In particular, in longitudinal studies, when there is time-varying confounding, classical methods (regressions) may be biased. Marginal structural models have been developed to address this issue. In conclusion, "causal models", though they were developed partly independently, are based on equivalent logical foundations. A crucial step in the application of these models is the

Supporting inquiry learning by promoting normative understanding of multivariable causality

Science.gov (United States)

Keselman, Alla

2003-11-01

Early adolescents may lack the cognitive and metacognitive skills necessary for effective inquiry learning. In particular, they are likely to have a nonnormative mental model of multivariable causality in which effects of individual variables are neither additive nor consistent. Described here is a software-based intervention designed to facilitate students' metalevel and performance-level inquiry skills by enhancing their understanding of multivariable causality. Relative to an exploration-only group, sixth graders who practiced predicting an outcome (earthquake risk) based on multiple factors demonstrated increased attention to evidence, improved metalevel appreciation of effective strategies, and a trend toward consistent use of a controlled comparison strategy. Sixth graders who also received explicit instruction in making predictions based on multiple factors showed additional improvement in their ability to compare multiple instances as a basis for inferences and constructed the most accurate knowledge of the system. Gains were maintained in transfer tasks. The cognitive skills and metalevel understanding examined here are essential to inquiry learning.

Causal boundary for stably causal space-times

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Racz, I.

1987-12-01

The usual boundary constructions for space-times often yield an unsatisfactory boundary set. This problem is reviewed and a new solution is proposed. An explicit identification rule is given on the set of the ideal points of the space-time. This construction leads to a satisfactory boundary point set structure for stably causal space-times. The topological properties of the resulting causal boundary construction are examined. For the stably causal space-times each causal curve has a unique endpoint on the boundary set according to the extended Alexandrov topology. The extension of the space-time through the boundary is discussed. To describe the singularities the defined boundary sets have to be separated into two disjoint sets. (D.Gy.) 8 refs

Causal Effects of Language on the Exchange of Social Support in an Online Community.

Science.gov (United States)

Biehl, Sarah A; Kahn, Jeffrey H

2016-07-01

The provision of social support is a common function of many online communities, but a full understanding of the causal effect of emotion language on the provision of support requires experimental study. The frequency of positive- and negative-emotion words in simulated posts requesting emotional support was manipulated and presented to a sample of college students (N = 442) who were randomly assigned to read one of four simulated posts. Participants completed measures of the original poster's (OP's) distress, and they provided a response to the simulated post. These responses were subjected to a computerized text analysis, and their overall effectiveness was rated by two independent judges. Fewer positive-emotion and more negative-emotion words in the simulated post led to perceptions that the OP was distressed and unable to cope. Participant-generated responses to the post were highest in positive-emotion words when the simulated post was high in positive-emotion words, but low in negative-emotion words. Finally, simulated posts that were low in positive-emotion words received responses that were judged to be more effective than did simulated posts that were high in positive-emotion words. These findings have implications for understanding the role of emotion language on the exchange of online social support.

An examination of structure-function claims in dietary supplement advertising in the U.S.: 2003-2009.

Science.gov (United States)

Avery, Rosemary J; Eisenberg, Matthew D; Cantor, Jonathan H

2017-04-01

Dietary supplement advertising cannot claim a causal link between the product and the treatment, prevention, or cure of a disease unless manufacturers seek approval from the FDA for a health claim. Manufacturers can make structure-function (S-F) claims without FDA approval linking a supplement to a body function or system using words such as "may help" or "promotes." These S-F claims are examined in this study in order to determine whether they mimic health claims for which the FDA requires stricter scientific evidence. Data include S-F claims in supplement advertisements (N=6179) appearing in US nationally circulated magazines (N=137) from 2003 to 2009. All advertisements were comprehensively coded for S-F claims, seals of approval, and other claims of guarantee. S-F claims associate supplements with a wide variety of health conditions, many of which are serious diseases and/or ailments. A significant number of the specific verbs used in these S-F claims are indicative of disease treatment/cure effects, thereby possibly mimicking health claims to the average consumer. The strength of the clinical associations made are largely unsubstantiated in the medical literature. Claims that a product is "scientifically proven" or "guaranteed" were largely unsubstantiated by clinical literature. Ads carrying externally validating seals of approval were highly prevalent. S-F claims that strongly mimic FDA-prohibited health claims are likely to create confusion in interpretation and possible public health concerns are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

When Is Statistical Evidence Superior to Anecdotal Evidence in Supporting Probability Claims? The Role of Argument Type

Science.gov (United States)

Hoeken, Hans; Hustinx, Lettica

2009-01-01

Under certain conditions, statistical evidence is more persuasive than anecdotal evidence in supporting a claim about the probability that a certain event will occur. In three experiments, it is shown that the type of argument is an important condition in this respect. If the evidence is part of an argument by generalization, statistical evidence…

On the road toward formal reasoning: reasoning with factual causal and contrary-to-fact causal premises during early adolescence.

Science.gov (United States)

Markovits, Henry

2014-12-01

Understanding the development of conditional (if-then) reasoning is critical for theoretical and educational reasons. Here we examined the hypothesis that there is a developmental transition between reasoning with true and contrary-to-fact (CF) causal conditionals. A total of 535 students between 11 and 14 years of age received priming conditions designed to encourage use of either a true or CF alternatives generation strategy and reasoning problems with true causal and CF causal premises (with counterbalanced order). Results show that priming had no effect on reasoning with true causal premises. By contrast, priming with CF alternatives significantly improved logical reasoning with CF premises. Analysis of the effect of order showed that reasoning with CF premises reduced logical responding among younger students but had no effect among older students. Results support the idea that there is a transition in the reasoning processes in this age range associated with the nature of the alternatives generation process required for logical reasoning with true and CF causal conditionals. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Untangling the causal relationship between tax burden distribution and economic growth in 23 OECD countries: Fresh evidence from linear and non-linear Granger causality

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Sami Saafi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to investigate the linear and nonlinear causality between a set of alternative tax burden ratios and economic growth in 23 OECD countries. To that end, the linear causality approach of Toda– Yamamoto (1995 and the nonparametric causality method of Kyrtsou and Labys (2006 are applied to annual data spanning from 1970 to 2014. Results obtained from the nonlinear causality test tend to reject the neutrality hypothesis for the tax structure–growth relationship in 19 of the 23 OECD countries. In the majority of the countries under investigation, the evidence is in line with the growth hypothesis where causality running from economic growth to tax burden ratios was detected in Australia, Denmark, Finland, Japan, New Zealand, and Norway. The opposite causality running from tax structure to economic growth was found in Germany, Netherlands, Portugal, and Sweden. In contrast, the neutrality hypothesis was supported in Austria, Italy, Luxembourg, and the USA, whereas the feedback hypothesis was supported in Turkey and the UK. Additional robustness checks show that when the signs of variations are taken into account, there is an asymmetric causality running from positive tax burden shocks to positive per capita GDP shocks for Belgium, France, and Turkey. Overall, our findings suggest that policy implications of the tax structure-economic growth relationships should be interpreted with caution, taking into account the test-dependent and country-specific results.

Causal Relationship Between Relative Price Variability and Inflation in Turkey:

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Nebiye Yamak

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the causal relationship between inflation and relative price variability in Turkey for the period of January 2003-January 2014, by using panel data. In the study, a Granger (1969 non-causality test in heterogeneous panel data models developed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012 is utilized to determine the causal relations between inflation rate relative price variability. The panel data consists of 4123 observations: 133 time observations and 31 cross-section observations. The results of panel causality test indicate that there is a bidirectional causality between inflation rate and relative price variability by not supporting the imperfection information model of Lucas and the menu cost model of Ball and Mankiw.

Causal universe

CERN Document Server

Ellis, George FR; Pabjan, Tadeusz

2013-01-01

Written by philosophers, cosmologists, and physicists, this collection of essays deals with causality, which is a core issue for both science and philosophy. Readers will learn about different types of causality in complex systems and about new perspectives on this issue based on physical and cosmological considerations. In addition, the book includes essays pertaining to the problem of causality in ancient Greek philosophy, and to the problem of God's relation to the causal structures of nature viewed in the light of contemporary physics and cosmology.

Causal relationship: a new tool for the causal characterization of Lorentzian manifolds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia-Parrado, Alfonso; Senovilla, Jose M M

2003-01-01

We define and study a new kind of relation between two diffeomorphic Lorentzian manifolds called a causal relation, which is any diffeomorphism characterized by mapping every causal vector of the first manifold onto a causal vector of the second. We perform a thorough study of the mathematical properties of causal relations and prove in particular that two given Lorentzian manifolds (say V and W) may be causally related only in one direction (say from V to W, but not from W to V). This leads us to the concept of causally equivalent (or isocausal in short) Lorentzian manifolds as those mutually causally related and to a definition of causal structure over a differentiable manifold as the equivalence class formed by isocausal Lorentzian metrics upon it. Isocausality is a more general concept than the conformal relationship, because we prove the remarkable result that a conformal relation φ is characterized by the fact of being a causal relation of the particular kind in which both φ and φ -1 are causal relations. Isocausal Lorentzian manifolds are mutually causally compatible, they share some important causal properties, and there are one-to-one correspondences, which are sometimes non-trivial, between several classes of their respective future (and past) objects. A more important feature is that they satisfy the same standard causality constraints. We also introduce a partial order for the equivalence classes of isocausal Lorentzian manifolds providing a classification of all the causal structures that a given fixed manifold can have. By introducing the concept of causal extension we put forward a new definition of causal boundary for Lorentzian manifolds based on the concept of isocausality, and thereby we generalize the traditional Penrose constructions of conformal infinity, diagrams and embeddings. In particular, the concept of causal diagram is given. Many explicit clarifying examples are presented throughout the paper

Causal and Epistemic Relevance in Appeals to Authority

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Sebastiano Lommi

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Appeals to authority have a long tradition in the history of argumentation theory. During the Middle Age they were considered legitimate and sound arguments, but after Locke’s treatment in the Essay Concerning Human Understanding their legitimacy has come under question. Traditionally, arguments from authority were considered informal arguments, but since the important work of Charles Hamblin (Hamblin, 1970 many attempts to provide a form for them have been done. The most convincing of them is the presumptive form developed by Douglas Walton and John Woods (Woods, Walton, 1974 that aims at taking into account the relevant contextual aspects in assessing the provisional validity of an appeal to authority. The soundness of an appeal depends on its meeting the adequacy conditions set to scrutinize all the relevant questions. I want to claim that this approach is compatible with the analysis of arguments in terms of relevance advanced by David Hitchcock (Hitchcock, 1992. He claims that relevance is a triadic relation between two items and a context. The first item is relevant to the second one in a given context. Different types of relevance relation exist, namely causal relevance and epistemic relevance. “Something is [causally] relevant to an outcome in a given situation if it helps to cause that outcome in the situation” (Hitchcock, 1992, p. 253, whereas it is epistemically relevant when it helps to achieve an epistemic goal in a given situation. I claim that we can adapt this conception to Walton and Krabbe’s theory of dialogue type (Walton, Krabbe, 1995, seeing the items of a relevance relation as the argument and its consequence and the context as the type of dialogue in which these arguments are advanced. According to this perspective, an argument from authority that meets the adequacy conditions has to be considered legitimate because it is an epistemically relevant relation. Therefore, my conclusion is that an analysis of appeals to

Causality between Prices and Wages: VECM Analysis for EU-27

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Adriatik Hoxha

2010-09-01

Full Text Available The literature on causality as well as the empirical evidence clearly shows that there are two opposing groups of economists, who support different hypotheses with respect to the flow of causality in the price-wage causal relationship. The first group argues that causality runs from wages to prices, whereas the second argues that effect flows from prices to wages. Nonetheless, the literature review suggeststhat there is at least some consensus in that researcher’s conclusions may be contingent on the type of data employed, applied econometric model, or even that relationship may alter with economic cycles. This paper empirically examines theprice-wage causal relationship in EU-27, by using the OLS and VECM analysis, and it also provides robust evidence in support of a bilateral causal relationship between prices and wages, both in long-run as well as in the shortrun.Prior to designing and estimating the econometric model we have performed stationarity tests for the employed price, wage and productivity variables. Additionally, we have also specified the model taking into account the lag order as well as the rank of co-integration for the co-integrated variables. Furthermore, we have also applied respective restrictions on the parameters of estimatedVECM. The evidence resulting from model robustness checks indicates that results are statistically robust. Although far from closing the issue of causality between prices and wages, this paper at least provides some fresh evidence in the case of EU-27.

Causality analysis in business performance measurement system using system dynamics methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Yusof, Zainuridah; Yusoff, Wan Fadzilah Wan; Maarof, Faridah

2014-07-01

One of the main components of the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) that differentiates it from any other performance measurement system (PMS) is the Strategy Map with its unidirectional causality feature. Despite its apparent popularity, criticisms on the causality have been rigorously discussed by earlier researchers. In seeking empirical evidence of causality, propositions based on the service profit chain theory were developed and tested using the econometrics analysis, Granger causality test on the 45 data points. However, the insufficiency of well-established causality models was found as only 40% of the causal linkages were supported by the data. Expert knowledge was suggested to be used in the situations of insufficiency of historical data. The Delphi method was selected and conducted in obtaining the consensus of the causality existence among the 15 selected expert persons by utilizing 3 rounds of questionnaires. Study revealed that only 20% of the propositions were not supported. The existences of bidirectional causality which demonstrate significant dynamic environmental complexity through interaction among measures were obtained from both methods. With that, a computer modeling and simulation using System Dynamics (SD) methodology was develop as an experimental platform to identify how policies impacting the business performance in such environments. The reproduction, sensitivity and extreme condition tests were conducted onto developed SD model to ensure their capability in mimic the reality, robustness and validity for causality analysis platform. This study applied a theoretical service management model within the BSC domain to a practical situation using SD methodology where very limited work has been done.

Images of illness: how causal claims and racial associations influence public preferences toward diabetes research spending.

Science.gov (United States)

Gollust, Sarah E; Lantz, Paula M; Ubel, Peter A

2010-12-01

Despite the salience of health disparities in media and policy discourse, little previous research has investigated if imagery associating an illness with a certain racial group influences public perceptions. This study evaluated the influence of the media's presentation of the causes of type 2 diabetes and its implicit racial associations on attitudes toward people with diabetes and preferences toward research spending. Survey participants who viewed an article on genetic causation or social determinants of diabetes were more likely to support increased government spending on research than those viewing an article with no causal language, while participants viewing an article on behavioral choices were more likely to attribute negative stereotypes to people with diabetes. Participants who viewed a photo of a black woman accompanying the article were less likely to endorse negative stereotypes than those viewing a photo of a white woman, but those who viewed a photo of a glucose-testing device expressed the lowest negative stereotypes. The effect of social determinants language was significantly different for blacks and whites, lowering stereotypes only among blacks. Emphasizing the behavioral causes of diabetes, as is common in media coverage, may perpetuate negative stereotypes. While drawing attention to the social determinants that shape these behaviors could mitigate stereotypes, this strategy is unlikely to influence the public uniformly.

Causal ubiquity in quantum physics. A superluminal and local-causal physical ontology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neelamkavil, Raphael

2014-01-01

A fixed highest criterial velocity (of light) in STR (special theory of relativity) is a convention for a layer of physical inquiry. QM (Quantum Mechanics) avoids action-at-a-distance using this concept, but accepts non-causality and action-at-a-distance in EPR (Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Paradox) entanglement experiments. Even in such allegedly [non-causal] processes, something exists processually in extension-motion, between the causal and the [non-causal]. If STR theoretically allows real-valued superluminal communication between EPR entangled particles, quantum processes become fully causal. That is, the QM world is sub-luminally, luminally and superluminally local-causal throughout, and the Law of Causality is ubiquitous in the micro-world. Thus, ''probabilistic causality'' is a merely epistemic term.

Causal ubiquity in quantum physics. A superluminal and local-causal physical ontology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Neelamkavil, Raphael

2014-07-01

A fixed highest criterial velocity (of light) in STR (special theory of relativity) is a convention for a layer of physical inquiry. QM (Quantum Mechanics) avoids action-at-a-distance using this concept, but accepts non-causality and action-at-a-distance in EPR (Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Paradox) entanglement experiments. Even in such allegedly [non-causal] processes, something exists processually in extension-motion, between the causal and the [non-causal]. If STR theoretically allows real-valued superluminal communication between EPR entangled particles, quantum processes become fully causal. That is, the QM world is sub-luminally, luminally and superluminally local-causal throughout, and the Law of Causality is ubiquitous in the micro-world. Thus, ''probabilistic causality'' is a merely epistemic term.

Causality in Science

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Cristina Puente Águeda

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Causality is a fundamental notion in every field of science. Since the times of Aristotle, causal relationships have been a matter of study as a way to generate knowledge and provide for explanations. In this paper I review the notion of causality through different scientific areas such as physics, biology, engineering, etc. In the scientific area, causality is usually seen as a precise relation: the same cause provokes always the same effect. But in the everyday world, the links between cause and effect are frequently imprecise or imperfect in nature. Fuzzy logic offers an adequate framework for dealing with imperfect causality, so a few notions of fuzzy causality are introduced.

A theory of causal learning in children: causal maps and Bayes nets.

Science.gov (United States)

Gopnik, Alison; Glymour, Clark; Sobel, David M; Schulz, Laura E; Kushnir, Tamar; Danks, David

2004-01-01

The authors outline a cognitive and computational account of causal learning in children. They propose that children use specialized cognitive systems that allow them to recover an accurate "causal map" of the world: an abstract, coherent, learned representation of the causal relations among events. This kind of knowledge can be perspicuously understood in terms of the formalism of directed graphical causal models, or Bayes nets. Children's causal learning and inference may involve computations similar to those for learning causal Bayes nets and for predicting with them. Experimental results suggest that 2- to 4-year-old children construct new causal maps and that their learning is consistent with the Bayes net formalism.

23 CFR 190.5 - Bonus project claims.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... which advertising controls are in effect. The eligible system mileage reported in subsequent projects on... CONTROLLING OUTDOOR ADVERTISING ON THE INTERSTATE SYSTEM § 190.5 Bonus project claims. (a) The State may claim payment by submitting a form PR-20 voucher, supported by strip maps which identify advertising control...

Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants

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Klimidis Steven

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background People hold a wide variety of beliefs concerning the causes of illness. Such beliefs vary across cultures and, among immigrants, may be influenced by many factors, including level of acculturation, gender, level of education, and experience of illness and treatment. This study examines illness causal beliefs in Turkish-immigrants in Australia. Methods Causal beliefs about somatic and mental illness were examined in a sample of 444 members of the Turkish population of Melbourne. The socio-demographic characteristics of the sample were broadly similar to those of the Melbourne Turkish community. Five issues were examined: the structure of causal beliefs; the relative frequency of natural, supernatural and metaphysical beliefs; ascription of somatic, mental, or both somatic and mental conditions to the various causes; the correlations of belief types with socio-demographic, modernizing and acculturation variables; and the relationship between causal beliefs and current illness. Results Principal components analysis revealed two broad factors, accounting for 58 percent of the variation in scores on illness belief scales, distinctly interpretable as natural and supernatural beliefs. Second, beliefs in natural causes were more frequent than beliefs in supernatural causes. Third, some causal beliefs were commonly linked to both somatic and mental conditions while others were regarded as more specific to either somatic or mental disorders. Last, there was a range of correlations between endorsement of belief types and factors defining heterogeneity within the community, including with demographic factors, indicators of modernizing and acculturative processes, and the current presence of illness. Conclusion Results supported the classification of causal beliefs proposed by Murdock, Wilson & Frederick, with a division into natural and supernatural causes. While belief in natural causes is more common, belief in supernatural causes

Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants.

Science.gov (United States)

Minas, Harry; Klimidis, Steven; Tuncer, Can

2007-07-24

People hold a wide variety of beliefs concerning the causes of illness. Such beliefs vary across cultures and, among immigrants, may be influenced by many factors, including level of acculturation, gender, level of education, and experience of illness and treatment. This study examines illness causal beliefs in Turkish-immigrants in Australia. Causal beliefs about somatic and mental illness were examined in a sample of 444 members of the Turkish population of Melbourne. The socio-demographic characteristics of the sample were broadly similar to those of the Melbourne Turkish community. Five issues were examined: the structure of causal beliefs; the relative frequency of natural, supernatural and metaphysical beliefs; ascription of somatic, mental, or both somatic and mental conditions to the various causes; the correlations of belief types with socio-demographic, modernizing and acculturation variables; and the relationship between causal beliefs and current illness. Principal components analysis revealed two broad factors, accounting for 58 percent of the variation in scores on illness belief scales, distinctly interpretable as natural and supernatural beliefs. Second, beliefs in natural causes were more frequent than beliefs in supernatural causes. Third, some causal beliefs were commonly linked to both somatic and mental conditions while others were regarded as more specific to either somatic or mental disorders. Last, there was a range of correlations between endorsement of belief types and factors defining heterogeneity within the community, including with demographic factors, indicators of modernizing and acculturative processes, and the current presence of illness. Results supported the classification of causal beliefs proposed by Murdock, Wilson & Frederick, with a division into natural and supernatural causes. While belief in natural causes is more common, belief in supernatural causes persists despite modernizing and acculturative influences. Different

Causal reasoning in physics

CERN Document Server

Frisch, Mathias

2014-01-01

Much has been written on the role of causal notions and causal reasoning in the so-called 'special sciences' and in common sense. But does causal reasoning also play a role in physics? Mathias Frisch argues that, contrary to what influential philosophical arguments purport to show, the answer is yes. Time-asymmetric causal structures are as integral a part of the representational toolkit of physics as a theory's dynamical equations. Frisch develops his argument partly through a critique of anti-causal arguments and partly through a detailed examination of actual examples of causal notions in physics, including causal principles invoked in linear response theory and in representations of radiation phenomena. Offering a new perspective on the nature of scientific theories and causal reasoning, this book will be of interest to professional philosophers, graduate students, and anyone interested in the role of causal thinking in science.

A theory of causal learning in children: Causal maps and Bayes nets

OpenAIRE

Gopnik, A; Glymour, C; Sobel, D M; Schulz, L E; Kushnir, T; Danks, D

2004-01-01

The authors outline a cognitive and computational account of causal learning in children. They propose that children use specialized cognitive systems that allow them to recover an accurate "causal map" of the world: an abstract, coherent, learned representation of the causal relations among events. This kind of knowledge can be perspicuously understood in terms of the formalism of directed graphical causal models, or Bayes nets. Children's causal learning and inference may involve computatio...

32 CFR 536.120 - Claims payable as maritime claims.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Claims payable as maritime claims. 536.120... ACCOUNTS CLAIMS AGAINST THE UNITED STATES Maritime Claims § 536.120 Claims payable as maritime claims. A claim is cognizable under this subpart if it arises in or on a maritime location, involves some...

The Ineliminable Distortion of Reality: On Causality, Representation, Abstraction and Idealization in Batterman’s Philosophy of Science

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bentzen, Martin Mose

will be subject to the same type of criticism as the deductive-nomological model, e.g. why not explain the length of strings of pendulums via an analysis of parameters connected to their periods and gravitational acceleration? I conclude that although asymptotic explanations do not directly appeal to causality...... explanations do not directly appeal to causal factors at the macro level, they presuppose them. For instance, the modeler’s choice of which parameters (or dimensions) are essential to the explanation of a certain phenomenon and which are consequently taken as a starting point for a dimensional analysis, see......) or that they proceed by appealing to fictional highly idealized models in physics, see (Bokulich, 2011), (Pexton, 2014), (Wayne, 2015). I claim that these arguments do not preclude that causality is presupposed at the macro-level, except perhaps in quantum theoretical explanations in which case an appeal to Bohr...

Historic evidence to support a causal relationship between spirochetal infections and Alzheimer’s disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Judith eMiklossy

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Following previous observations a statistically significant association between various types of spirochetes and Alzheimer’s disease (AD fulfilled Hill’s criteria in favor of a causal relationship. If spirochetal infections can indeed cause AD, the pathological and biological hallmarks of AD should also occur in syphilitic dementia. To answer this question, observations and illustrations on the detection of spirochetes in the atrophic form of general paresis, which is known to be associated with slowly progressive dementia, were reviewed and compared with the characteristic pathology of AD. Historic observations and illustrations published in the first half of the 20th Century indeed confirm that the pathological hallmarks, which define AD, are also present in syphilitic dementia. Cortical spirochetal colonies are made up by innumerable tightly spiraled Treponema pallidum spirochetes, which are morphologically indistinguishable from senile plaques, using conventional light microscopy. Local brain amyloidosis also occurs in general paresis and, as in AD, corresponds to amyloid beta. These historic observations enable us to conclude that chronic spirochetal infections can cause dementia and reproduce the defining hallmarks of AD. They represent further evidence in support a causal relationship between various spirochetal infections and AD. They also indicate that local invasion of the brain by these helically shaped bacteria reproduce the filamentous pathology characteristic of AD. Chronic infection by spirochetes, and co-infection with other bacteria and viruses should be included in our current view on the etiology of AD. Prompt action is needed as AD might be prevented.

Repeated causal decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Hagmayer, York; Meder, Björn

2013-01-01

Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in such situations and how they use their knowledge to adapt to changes in the decision context. Our studies show that decision makers' behavior is strongly contingent on their causal beliefs and that people exploit their causal knowledge to assess the consequences of changes in the decision problem. A high consistency between hypotheses about causal structure, causally expected values, and actual choices was observed. The experiments show that (a) existing causal hypotheses guide the interpretation of decision feedback, (b) consequences of decisions are used to revise existing causal beliefs, and (c) decision makers use the experienced feedback to induce a causal model of the choice situation even when they have no initial causal hypotheses, which (d) enables them to adapt their choices to changes of the decision problem. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

Causal learning and inference as a rational process: the new synthesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Holyoak, Keith J; Cheng, Patricia W

2011-01-01

Over the past decade, an active line of research within the field of human causal learning and inference has converged on a general representational framework: causal models integrated with bayesian probabilistic inference. We describe this new synthesis, which views causal learning and inference as a fundamentally rational process, and review a sample of the empirical findings that support the causal framework over associative alternatives. Causal events, like all events in the distal world as opposed to our proximal perceptual input, are inherently unobservable. A central assumption of the causal approach is that humans (and potentially nonhuman animals) have been designed in such a way as to infer the most invariant causal relations for achieving their goals based on observed events. In contrast, the associative approach assumes that learners only acquire associations among important observed events, omitting the representation of the distal relations. By incorporating bayesian inference over distributions of causal strength and causal structures, along with noisy-logical (i.e., causal) functions for integrating the influences of multiple causes on a single effect, human judgments about causal strength and structure can be predicted accurately for relatively simple causal structures. Dynamic models of learning based on the causal framework can explain patterns of acquisition observed with serial presentation of contingency data and are consistent with available neuroimaging data. The approach has been extended to a diverse range of inductive tasks, including category-based and analogical inferences.

Turning health research into health promotion: a study of causality and 'critical insights' in a United Kingdom health campaign.

Science.gov (United States)

Piggin, Joe

2012-10-01

This article examines how important decisions about health can alter between public health policy formulation and eventual marketing implementation. Specifically, the article traces the development and production of a major United Kingdom social marketing campaign named Change4Life, and examines how ideas about the causes of and solutions to the obesity epidemic are produced in differing ways throughout the health promotion process. This study examines a variety of United Kingdom health research, policy, marketing strategy and marketing messages between 2008 and 2011. This research demonstrates that claims about causality oscillate and alter throughout the research, policy and Change4Life marketing process. These oscillations are problematic, since the Department of Health described the original consumer research as 'critical'. Given both the importance of the health issues being addressed and the amount of funding dedicated to Change4Life, that 'critical' research was directly contradicted in the campaign requires urgent review. To conclude, the article discusses the utility of social marketing when considering causal claims in health promotion. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Causal Model of Consumer-Based Brand Equity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szőcs Attila

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Branding literature suggests that consumer-based brand equity (CBBE is a multidimensional construct. Starting from this approach and developing a conceptual multidimensional model, this study finds that CBBE can be best modelled with a two-dimensional structure and claims that it achieves this result by choosing the theoretically based causal specification. On the contrary, with reflective specification, one will be able to fit almost any valid construct because of the halo effect and common method bias. In the final model, Trust (in quality and Advantage are causing the second-order Brand Equity. The two-dimensional brand equity is an intuitive model easy to interpret and easy to measure, which thus may be a much more attractive means for the management as well.

Causal ubiquity in quantum physics a superluminal and local-causal physical ontology

CERN Document Server

Neelamkavil, Raphael

2014-01-01

A fixed highest criterial velocity (of light) in STR (special theory of relativity) is a convention for a layer of physical inquiry. QM (Quantum Mechanics) avoids action-at-a-distance using this concept, but accepts non-causality and action-at-a-distance in EPR (Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Paradox) entanglement experiments. Even in such allegedly non-causal processes, something exists processually in extension-motion, between the causal and the non-causal. If STR theoretically allows real-valued superluminal communication between EPR entangled particles, quantum processes become fully causal. That

Non-Causal Computation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ämin Baumeler

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Computation models such as circuits describe sequences of computation steps that are carried out one after the other. In other words, algorithm design is traditionally subject to the restriction imposed by a fixed causal order. We address a novel computing paradigm beyond quantum computing, replacing this assumption by mere logical consistency: We study non-causal circuits, where a fixed time structure within a gate is locally assumed whilst the global causal structure between the gates is dropped. We present examples of logically consistent non-causal circuits outperforming all causal ones; they imply that suppressing loops entirely is more restrictive than just avoiding the contradictions they can give rise to. That fact is already known for correlations as well as for communication, and we here extend it to computation.

Energy-GDP relationship revisited: An example from GCC countries using panel causality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Al-Iriani, Mahmoud A.

2006-01-01

This work investigates the causality relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and energy consumption in the six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Recently developed panel cointegration and causality techniques are used to uncover the direction of energy-GDP causality in the GCC. Empirical results indicate a unidirectional causality running from GDP to energy consumption. Evidence shows no support for the hypothesis that energy consumption is the source of GDP growth in the GCC countries. Such results suggest that energy conservation policies may be adopted without much concern about their adverse effects on the growth of GCC economies

Causality re-established.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Ariano, Giacomo Mauro

2018-07-13

Causality has never gained the status of a 'law' or 'principle' in physics. Some recent literature has even popularized the false idea that causality is a notion that should be banned from theory. Such misconception relies on an alleged universality of the reversibility of the laws of physics, based either on the determinism of classical theory, or on the multiverse interpretation of quantum theory, in both cases motivated by mere interpretational requirements for realism of the theory. Here, I will show that a properly defined unambiguous notion of causality is a theorem of quantum theory, which is also a falsifiable proposition of the theory. Such a notion of causality appeared in the literature within the framework of operational probabilistic theories. It is a genuinely theoretical notion, corresponding to establishing a definite partial order among events, in the same way as we do by using the future causal cone on Minkowski space. The notion of causality is logically completely independent of the misidentified concept of 'determinism', and, being a consequence of quantum theory, is ubiquitous in physics. In addition, as classical theory can be regarded as a restriction of quantum theory, causality holds also in the classical case, although the determinism of the theory trivializes it. I then conclude by arguing that causality naturally establishes an arrow of time. This implies that the scenario of the 'block Universe' and the connected 'past hypothesis' are incompatible with causality, and thus with quantum theory: they are both doomed to remain mere interpretations and, as such, are not falsifiable, similar to the hypothesis of 'super-determinism'.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Foundations of quantum mechanics and their impact on contemporary society'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Causal reasoning and models of cognitive tasks for naval nuclear power plant operators; Raisonnement causal et modelisation de l`activite cognitive d`operateurs de chaufferie nucleaire navale

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salazar-Ferrer, P

1995-06-01

In complex industrial process control, causal reasoning appears as a major component in operators` cognitive tasks. It is tightly linked to diagnosis, prediction of normal and failure states, and explanation. This work provides a detailed review of literature in causal reasoning. A synthesis is proposed as a model of causal reasoning in process control. This model integrates distinct approaches in Cognitive Science: especially qualitative physics, Bayesian networks, knowledge-based systems, and cognitive psychology. Our model defines a framework for the analysis of causal human errors in simulated naval nuclear power plant fault management. Through the methodological framework of critical incident analysis we define a classification of errors and difficulties linked to causal reasoning. This classification is based on shallow characteristics of causal reasoning. As an origin of these errors, more elementary component activities in causal reasoning are identified. The applications cover the field of functional specification for man-machine interfaces, operators support systems design as well as nuclear safety. In addition of this study, we integrate the model of causal reasoning in a model of cognitive task in process control. (authors). 106 refs., 49 figs., 8 tabs.

Does Sufficient Evidence Exist to Support a Causal Association between Vitamin D Status and Cardiovascular Disease Risk? An Assessment Using Hill’s Criteria for Causality

OpenAIRE

Weyland, Patricia G.; Grant, William B.; Howie-Esquivel, Jill

2014-01-01

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels have been found to be inversely associated with both prevalent and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors; dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. This review looks for evidence of a causal association between low 25(OH)D levels and increased CVD risk. We evaluated journal articles in light of Hill’s criteria for causality in a biological system. The results of our assessment are as follows. Strength of association: many randomi...

Further properties of causal relationship: causal structure stability, new criteria for isocausality and counterexamples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia-Parrado, Alfonso; Sanchez, Miguel

2005-01-01

Recently (Garcia-Parrado and Senovilla 2003 Class. Quantum Grav. 20 625-64) the concept of causal mapping between spacetimes, essentially equivalent in this context to the chronological map defined in abstract chronological spaces, and the related notion of causal structure, have been introduced as new tools to study causality in Lorentzian geometry. In the present paper, these tools are further developed in several directions such as (i) causal mappings-and, thus, abstract chronological ones-do not preserve two levels of the standard hierarchy of causality conditions (however, they preserve the remaining levels as shown in the above reference), (ii) even though global hyperbolicity is a stable property (in the set of all time-oriented Lorentzian metrics on a fixed manifold), the causal structure of a globally hyperbolic spacetime can be unstable against perturbations; in fact, we show that the causal structures of Minkowski and Einstein static spacetimes remain stable, whereas that of de Sitter becomes unstable, (iii) general criteria allow us to discriminate different causal structures in some general spacetimes (e.g. globally hyperbolic, stationary standard); in particular, there are infinitely many different globally hyperbolic causal structures (and thus, different conformal ones) on R 2 (iv) plane waves with the same number of positive eigenvalues in the frequency matrix share the same causal structure and, thus, they have equal causal extensions and causal boundaries

Neural theory for the perception of causal actions.

Science.gov (United States)

Fleischer, Falk; Christensen, Andrea; Caggiano, Vittorio; Thier, Peter; Giese, Martin A

2012-07-01

The efficient prediction of the behavior of others requires the recognition of their actions and an understanding of their action goals. In humans, this process is fast and extremely robust, as demonstrated by classical experiments showing that human observers reliably judge causal relationships and attribute interactive social behavior to strongly simplified stimuli consisting of simple moving geometrical shapes. While psychophysical experiments have identified critical visual features that determine the perception of causality and agency from such stimuli, the underlying detailed neural mechanisms remain largely unclear, and it is an open question why humans developed this advanced visual capability at all. We created pairs of naturalistic and abstract stimuli of hand actions that were exactly matched in terms of their motion parameters. We show that varying critical stimulus parameters for both stimulus types leads to very similar modulations of the perception of causality. However, the additional form information about the hand shape and its relationship with the object supports more fine-grained distinctions for the naturalistic stimuli. Moreover, we show that a physiologically plausible model for the recognition of goal-directed hand actions reproduces the observed dependencies of causality perception on critical stimulus parameters. These results support the hypothesis that selectivity for abstract action stimuli might emerge from the same neural mechanisms that underlie the visual processing of natural goal-directed action stimuli. Furthermore, the model proposes specific detailed neural circuits underlying this visual function, which can be evaluated in future experiments.

A quantum causal discovery algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Giarmatzi, Christina; Costa, Fabio

2018-03-01

Finding a causal model for a set of classical variables is now a well-established task—but what about the quantum equivalent? Even the notion of a quantum causal model is controversial. Here, we present a causal discovery algorithm for quantum systems. The input to the algorithm is a process matrix describing correlations between quantum events. Its output consists of different levels of information about the underlying causal model. Our algorithm determines whether the process is causally ordered by grouping the events into causally ordered non-signaling sets. It detects if all relevant common causes are included in the process, which we label Markovian, or alternatively if some causal relations are mediated through some external memory. For a Markovian process, it outputs a causal model, namely the causal relations and the corresponding mechanisms, represented as quantum states and channels. Our algorithm opens the route to more general quantum causal discovery methods.

Epidemiological causality.

Science.gov (United States)

Morabia, Alfredo

2005-01-01

Epidemiological methods, which combine population thinking and group comparisons, can primarily identify causes of disease in populations. There is therefore a tension between our intuitive notion of a cause, which we want to be deterministic and invariant at the individual level, and the epidemiological notion of causes, which are invariant only at the population level. Epidemiologists have given heretofore a pragmatic solution to this tension. Causal inference in epidemiology consists in checking the logical coherence of a causality statement and determining whether what has been found grossly contradicts what we think we already know: how strong is the association? Is there a dose-response relationship? Does the cause precede the effect? Is the effect biologically plausible? Etc. This approach to causal inference can be traced back to the English philosophers David Hume and John Stuart Mill. On the other hand, the mode of establishing causality, devised by Jakob Henle and Robert Koch, which has been fruitful in bacteriology, requires that in every instance the effect invariably follows the cause (e.g., inoculation of Koch bacillus and tuberculosis). This is incompatible with epidemiological causality which has to deal with probabilistic effects (e.g., smoking and lung cancer), and is therefore invariant only for the population.

Scenario development, qualitative causal analysis and system dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael H. Ruge

2009-02-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to demonstrate that technology assessments can be supported by methods such as scenario modeling and qualitative causal analysis. At Siemens, these techniques are used to develop preliminary purely qualitative models. These or parts of these comprehensive models may be extended to system dynamics models. While it is currently not possible to automatically generate a system dynamics models (or vice versa, obtain a qualitative simulation model from a system dynamics model, the two thechniques scenario development and qualitative causal analysis provide valuable indications on how to proceed towards a system dynamics model. For the qualitative analysis phase, the Siemens – proprietary prototype Computer – Aided Technology Assessment Software (CATS supportes complete cycle and submodel analysis. Keywords: Health care, telecommucations, qualitative model, sensitivity analysis, system dynamics.

Discrete causal theory emergent spacetime and the causal metric hypothesis

CERN Document Server

Dribus, Benjamin F

2017-01-01

This book evaluates and suggests potentially critical improvements to causal set theory, one of the best-motivated approaches to the outstanding problems of fundamental physics. Spacetime structure is of central importance to physics beyond general relativity and the standard model. The causal metric hypothesis treats causal relations as the basis of this structure. The book develops the consequences of this hypothesis under the assumption of a fundamental scale, with smooth spacetime geometry viewed as emergent. This approach resembles causal set theory, but differs in important ways; for example, the relative viewpoint, emphasizing relations between pairs of events, and relationships between pairs of histories, is central. The book culminates in a dynamical law for quantum spacetime, derived via generalized path summation.

Causal Analysis After Haavelmo

Science.gov (United States)

Heckman, James; Pinto, Rodrigo

2014-01-01

Haavelmo's seminal 1943 and 1944 papers are the first rigorous treatment of causality. In them, he distinguished the definition of causal parameters from their identification. He showed that causal parameters are defined using hypothetical models that assign variation to some of the inputs determining outcomes while holding all other inputs fixed. He thus formalized and made operational Marshall's (1890) ceteris paribus analysis. We embed Haavelmo's framework into the recursive framework of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) used in one influential recent approach to causality (Pearl, 2000) and in the related literature on Bayesian nets (Lauritzen, 1996). We compare the simplicity of an analysis of causality based on Haavelmo's methodology with the complex and nonintuitive approach used in the causal literature of DAGs—the “do-calculus” of Pearl (2009). We discuss the severe limitations of DAGs and in particular of the do-calculus of Pearl in securing identification of economic models. We extend our framework to consider models for simultaneous causality, a central contribution of Haavelmo. In general cases, DAGs cannot be used to analyze models for simultaneous causality, but Haavelmo's approach naturally generalizes to cover them. PMID:25729123

The Use of Causal Mapping in the Design of Sustainability Performance Measurement Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Parisi, Cristiana

2013-01-01

organisations’ strategic performance measurement systems (SPMSs). This study’s main contribution is the triangulation of multiple qualitative methods to enhance the reliability of causal maps. This innovative approach supports the use of causal mapping to extract managerial tacit knowledge in order to identify...

32 CFR 536.121 - Claims not payable as maritime claims.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Claims not payable as maritime claims. 536.121... ACCOUNTS CLAIMS AGAINST THE UNITED STATES Maritime Claims § 536.121 Claims not payable as maritime claims... (except at (e) and (k)), and 536.46; (b) Are not maritime in nature; (c) Are not in the best interests of...

Clear message for causality

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Steinberg, Aephraim M. [Institute for Experimental Physics, University of Vienna, Vienna (Austria)

2003-12-01

Experiment confirms that information cannot be transmitted faster than the speed of light. Ever since Einstein stated that nothing can travel faster than light, physicists have delighted in finding exceptions. One after another, observations of such 'superluminal' propagation have been made. However, while some image or pattern- such as the motion of a spotlight projected on a distant wall - might have appeared to travel faster than light, it seemed that there was no way to use the superluminal effect to transmit energy or information. In recent years, the superluminal propagation of light pulses through certain media has led to renewed controversy. In 1995, for example, Guenther Nimtz of the University of Cologne encoded Mozart's 40th Symphony on a microwave beam, which he claimed to have transmitted at a speed faster than light. Others maintain that such a violation of Einstein's speed limit would wreak havoc on our most fundamental ideas about causality, allowing an effect to precede its cause. Relativity teaches us that sending a signal faster than light would be equivalent to sending it backwards in time. (U.K.)

Nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in OECD countries: Cross-sectionally dependent heterogeneous panel causality analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nazlioglu, Saban; Lebe, Fuat; Kayhan, Selim

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study is to determine the direction causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in OECD countries. The empirical model that includes capital and labor force as the control variables is estimated for the panel of fourteen OECD countries during the period 1980-2007. Apart from the previous studies in the nuclear energy consumption and economic growth relationship, this study utilizes the novel panel causality approach, which allows both cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity across countries. The findings show that there is no causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in eleven out of fourteen cases, supporting the neutrality hypothesis. As a sensitivity analysis, we also conduct Toda-Yamamoto time series causality method and find out that the results from the panel causality analysis are slightly different than those from the time-series causality analysis. Thereby, we can conclude that the choice of statistical tools in analyzing the nature of causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth may play a key role for policy implications. - Highlights: → Causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth is examined for OECD countries. → Panel causality method, which allows cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity, is utilized. → The neutrality hypothesis is supported.

Causal Factors for The Adoption Innovation Teacher’s Tv for Teachersand Educational Personnel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thanadol Phuseerit

2016-12-01

aire for the experts to examine the causal factors for the adoption innovation teacher’s TV for teachers and education personnel model by focus groups, 4 questionnaire to confirm the causal factors to an innovation teacher’s TV model for teachers and educational personnel Committee of the teacher’s TV, 5 the causal factor for the adoption innovation teacher’s TV for teachers and education personnel model, 6 evaluation form of the causal factor for the adoption of the innovation teacher’s TV for teachers and education personnel model from the specialists. The research results were: 1 The causal factors for the adoption innovation teacher’s TV for Teachers and educational personnel Model. Elements and factors are as follows: 1.1 Elements of the causes and factors of innovation teacher’s TV. Teachers and educational personnel The Review of literature and semi-structured questionnaire, interviewing Collecting quality data from in-depth interviews with a total 9 causal as fallow: (1 Characteristics of innovation, included: relative Advantage, Compatibility, Complexity, Trial ability, Observable (2 Communication Channels, included: interpersonal communication, the media as press, radio, television, communication specialized media (3 Innovation-Decision Process, included: Knowledge, Persuasion, Decision, Implementation, Confirmation (4 Economy and Social System, include: compensation and benefits. Social interaction, (5 Attitude, included: understanding the emotions, behavior (6 Motivation, included: Intrinsic motivation. External motivation (7 Support of Administrator, include: support for innovation, the budget support and materials, Academic support (8 Change agent, included: knowledge and ability, Skill-oriented capabilities Ability attitude (9 Opinion Leaders, included: access to others easily, Creative and 1element of the Adoption of the Innovation: TTV, included: the perceived ease of use, and Perceived benefits. The model’s validity of the consistency

A Theory of Causal Learning in Children: Causal Maps and Bayes Nets

Science.gov (United States)

Gopnik, Alison; Glymour, Clark; Sobel, David M.; Schulz, Laura E.; Kushnir, Tamar; Danks, David

2004-01-01

The authors outline a cognitive and computational account of causal learning in children. They propose that children use specialized cognitive systems that allow them to recover an accurate "causal map" of the world: an abstract, coherent, learned representation of the causal relations among events. This kind of knowledge can be perspicuously…

32 CFR 536.129 - Claims cognizable as UCMJ claims.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Personnel Claims Act and chapter 11 of AR 27-20, which provides compensation only for tangible personal... 32 National Defense 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Claims cognizable as UCMJ claims. 536.129 Section 536.129 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY CLAIMS AND ACCOUNTS...

Structure induction in diagnostic causal reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Meder, Björn; Mayrhofer, Ralf; Waldmann, Michael R

2014-07-01

Our research examines the normative and descriptive adequacy of alternative computational models of diagnostic reasoning from single effects to single causes. Many theories of diagnostic reasoning are based on the normative assumption that inferences from an effect to its cause should reflect solely the empirically observed conditional probability of cause given effect. We argue against this assumption, as it neglects alternative causal structures that may have generated the sample data. Our structure induction model of diagnostic reasoning takes into account the uncertainty regarding the underlying causal structure. A key prediction of the model is that diagnostic judgments should not only reflect the empirical probability of cause given effect but should also depend on the reasoner's beliefs about the existence and strength of the link between cause and effect. We confirmed this prediction in 2 studies and showed that our theory better accounts for human judgments than alternative theories of diagnostic reasoning. Overall, our findings support the view that in diagnostic reasoning people go "beyond the information given" and use the available data to make inferences on the (unobserved) causal rather than on the (observed) data level. (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Neural Correlates of Causal Power Judgments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Denise Dellarosa Cummins

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Causal inference is a fundamental component of cognition and perception. Probabilistic theories of causal judgment (most notably causal Bayes networks derive causal judgments using metrics that integrate contingency information. But human estimates typically diverge from these normative predictions. This is because human causal power judgments are typically strongly influenced by beliefs concerning underlying causal mechanisms, and because of the way knowledge is retrieved from human memory during the judgment process. Neuroimaging studies indicate that the brain distinguishes causal events from mere covariation, and between perceived and inferred causality. Areas involved in error prediction are also activated, implying automatic activation of possible exception cases during causal decision-making.

Granger-Causality Maps of Diffusion Processes

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Wahl, B.; Feudel, U.; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Wächter, M.; Peinke, J.; Freund, J.A.

2016-01-01

Roč. 93, č. 2 16 February (2016), č. článku 022213. ISSN 2470-0045 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-23940S; GA MZd(CZ) NV15-29835A Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : Granger causality * stochastic process * diffusion process * nonlinear dynamical systems Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 2.366, year: 2016

Agency, time and causality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas eWidlok

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Cognitive Scientists interested in causal cognition increasingly search for evidence from non-WEIRD people but find only very few cross-cultural studies that specifically target causal cognition. This article suggests how information about causality can be retrieved from ethnographic monographs, specifically from ethnographies that discuss agency and concepts of time. Many apparent cultural differences with regard to causal cognition dissolve when cultural extensions of agency and personhood to non-humans are taken into account. At the same time considerable variability remains when we include notions of time, linearity and sequence. The article focuses on ethnographic case studies from Africa but provides a more general perspective on the role of ethnography in research on the diversity and universality of causal cognition.

Causal boundary for strongly causal spacetimes: Pt. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szabados, L.B.

1989-01-01

In a previous paper an analysis of the general structure of the causal boundary constructions and a new explicit identification rule, built up from elementary TIP-TIF gluings, were presented. In the present paper we complete our identification by incorporating TIP-TIP and TIF-TIF gluings as well. An asymptotic causality condition is found which, for physically important cases, ensures the uniqueness of the endpoints of the non-spacelike curves in the completed spacetime. (author)

Structural Equations and Causal Explanations: Some Challenges for Causal SEM

Science.gov (United States)

Markus, Keith A.

2010-01-01

One common application of structural equation modeling (SEM) involves expressing and empirically investigating causal explanations. Nonetheless, several aspects of causal explanation that have an impact on behavioral science methodology remain poorly understood. It remains unclear whether applications of SEM should attempt to provide complete…

Causal Relationship Between Relative Price Variability and Inflation in Turkey: Evidence from Panel Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nebiye Yamak

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the causal relationship between inflation and relative price variability in Turkey for the period of January 2003-January 2014, by using panel data. In the study, a Granger (1969 non-causality test in heterogeneous panel data models developed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012 is utilized to determine the causal relations between inflation rate relative price variability. The panel data consists of 4123 observations: 133 time observations and 31 cross-section observations. The results of panel causality test indicate that there is a bidirectional causality between inflation rate and relative price variability by not supporting the imperfection information model of Lucas and the menu cost model of Ball and Mankiw.

Causality discovery technology

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, M.; Ertl, T.; Jirotka, M.; Trefethen, A.; Schmidt, A.; Coecke, B.; Bañares-Alcántara, R.

2012-11-01

Causality is the fabric of our dynamic world. We all make frequent attempts to reason causation relationships of everyday events (e.g., what was the cause of my headache, or what has upset Alice?). We attempt to manage causality all the time through planning and scheduling. The greatest scientific discoveries are usually about causality (e.g., Newton found the cause for an apple to fall, and Darwin discovered natural selection). Meanwhile, we continue to seek a comprehensive understanding about the causes of numerous complex phenomena, such as social divisions, economic crisis, global warming, home-grown terrorism, etc. Humans analyse and reason causality based on observation, experimentation and acquired a priori knowledge. Today's technologies enable us to make observations and carry out experiments in an unprecedented scale that has created data mountains everywhere. Whereas there are exciting opportunities to discover new causation relationships, there are also unparalleled challenges to benefit from such data mountains. In this article, we present a case for developing a new piece of ICT, called Causality Discovery Technology. We reason about the necessity, feasibility and potential impact of such a technology.

Reasoning with Causal Cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Rehder, Bob

2017-01-01

This article assesses how people reason with categories whose features are related in causal cycles. Whereas models based on causal graphical models (CGMs) have enjoyed success modeling category-based judgments as well as a number of other cognitive phenomena, CGMs are only able to represent causal structures that are acyclic. A number of new…

Causal reasoning and models of cognitive tasks for naval nuclear power plant operators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salazar-Ferrer, P.

1995-06-01

In complex industrial process control, causal reasoning appears as a major component in operators' cognitive tasks. It is tightly linked to diagnosis, prediction of normal and failure states, and explanation. This work provides a detailed review of literature in causal reasoning. A synthesis is proposed as a model of causal reasoning in process control. This model integrates distinct approaches in Cognitive Science: especially qualitative physics, Bayesian networks, knowledge-based systems, and cognitive psychology. Our model defines a framework for the analysis of causal human errors in simulated naval nuclear power plant fault management. Through the methodological framework of critical incident analysis we define a classification of errors and difficulties linked to causal reasoning. This classification is based on shallow characteristics of causal reasoning. As an origin of these errors, more elementary component activities in causal reasoning are identified. The applications cover the field of functional specification for man-machine interfaces, operators support systems design as well as nuclear safety. In addition of this study, we integrate the model of causal reasoning in a model of cognitive task in process control. (authors). 106 refs., 49 figs., 8 tabs

A Critical Analysis of Claims and Their Authenticity in Indian Drug Promotional Advertisements

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Gurpreet Kaur Randhawa

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. Drug promotional advertisements (DPAs form a major marketing technique of pharmaceutical companies for promoting their products and disseminating ambiguous drug information which can affect prescribing pattern of physicians. Drug information includes product characteristics, various marketing claims with references in support to increase its credibility and authenticity. Material and Methods. An observational study was carried out on fifty printed drug advertisement brochures which were collected from different OPDs of Guru Nanak Dev Hospital attached to Government Medical College, Amritsar, India. These advertisements were analyzed and claims were categorized into true, false, exaggerated, vague, and controversial on criteria as reported by Rohraa et al. (2006. References of DPAs in support of the claims were critically analyzed for their retrievability from web and validity pertaining to claims. Results. Out of 209 claims from 50 advertisements, only 46% were found to be true, 21% false, 16% vague, 7% exaggerated, and 10% controversial in nature. Out of 160 references given in support of claims, 49 (30% of references were irretrievable. Out of 111 (70% retrievable references, 92 (83% references were found valid. Conclusion. Drug information provided in the DPAs was biased, incomplete, unauthentic, and unreliable with references exhibiting questionable credibility.

ClaimAssociationService

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Veterans Affairs — Retrieves and updates a veteranÆs claim status and claim-rating association (claim association for current rating) from the Corporate database for a claim selected...

Complications and patient-injury after ankle fracture surgery. -A closed claim analysis with data from the Patient Compensation Association in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjørslev, Naja; Ebskov, Lars Bo; Mersø, Camilla

2018-01-01

BACKGROUND: The Patient Compensation Association (PCA) receives claims for financial compensation from patients who believe they have sustained damage from their treatment in the Danish health care system. In this study, we have analysed closed claims in which patients suffered injuries due...... to the surgical treatment of their ankle fracture. We identified causalities contributing to these injuries and malpractices, as well as the economic consequences of these damages. METHODS: Fifty-one approved closed claims from the PCA database from the years 2004-2009 were analysed in a retrospective systematic...... of damages. General recommendations regarding ORIF were not followed in 21/49 of the perioperative damages. The pronation fracture was the most common. The patients received a total average compensation of 17.561 USD each. CONCLUSION: Managing the complex ankle fracture, requires considerable experience...

The Space Between: Land Claims and the Law in Indonesia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bakker, L.G.H.; Moniaga, S.

2010-01-01

In this article we look at rights discourses and law as an arena of struggle in which local people attempt to gain and secure access to localities of value Following administrative decentralisation in 1999, throughout Indonesia, individuals and communities lodged land claims To support these claims,

Structure and Strength in Causal Induction

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Griffiths, Thomas L.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

2005-01-01

We present a framework for the rational analysis of elemental causal induction--learning about the existence of a relationship between a single cause and effect--based upon causal graphical models. This framework makes precise the distinction between causal structure and causal strength: the difference between asking whether a causal relationship…

Regression to Causality : Regression-style presentation influences causal attribution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bordacconi, Mats Joe; Larsen, Martin Vinæs

2014-01-01

of equivalent results presented as either regression models or as a test of two sample means. Our experiment shows that the subjects who were presented with results as estimates from a regression model were more inclined to interpret these results causally. Our experiment implies that scholars using regression...... models – one of the primary vehicles for analyzing statistical results in political science – encourage causal interpretation. Specifically, we demonstrate that presenting observational results in a regression model, rather than as a simple comparison of means, makes causal interpretation of the results...... more likely. Our experiment drew on a sample of 235 university students from three different social science degree programs (political science, sociology and economics), all of whom had received substantial training in statistics. The subjects were asked to compare and evaluate the validity...

A multivariate analysis of the causal flow between renewable energy consumption and GDP in Tunisia

OpenAIRE

Ben Salha, Ousama; Sebri, Maamar

2013-01-01

This paper examines the causality linkages between economic growth, renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions and domestic investment in Tunisia between 1971 and 2010. Using the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration, long-run relationships between the variables are identified. On the other hand, the Granger causality analysis indicates that there is bi-directional causality between renewable energy consumption and economic growth, which supports the validity of the feedback hypothes...

24 CFR 17.4 - Administrative claim; evidence and information to be submitted.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... bearing on either the responsibility of the United States for the death or the damages claimed. (c... information which may have a bearing on either the responsibility of the United States for the personal injury or the damages claimed. (b) Death. In support of a claim based on death, the claimant may be required...

Defining hip fracture with claims data: outpatient and provider claims matter.

Science.gov (United States)

Berry, S D; Zullo, A R; McConeghy, K; Lee, Y; Daiello, L; Kiel, D P

2017-07-01

Medicare claims are commonly used to identify hip fractures, but there is no universally accepted definition. We found that a definition using inpatient claims identified fewer fractures than a definition including outpatient and provider claims. Few additional fractures were identified by including inconsistent diagnostic and procedural codes at contiguous sites. Medicare claims data is commonly used in research studies to identify hip fractures, but there is no universally accepted definition of fracture. Our purpose was to describe potential misclassification when hip fractures are defined using Medicare Part A (inpatient) claims without considering Part B (outpatient and provider) claims and when inconsistent diagnostic and procedural codes occur at contiguous fracture sites (e.g., femoral shaft or pelvic). Participants included all long-stay nursing home residents enrolled in Medicare Parts A and B fee-for-service between 1/1/2008 and 12/31/2009 with follow-up through 12/31/2011. We compared the number of hip fractures identified using only Part A claims to (1) Part A plus Part B claims and (2) Part A and Part B claims plus discordant codes at contiguous fracture sites. Among 1,257,279 long-stay residents, 40,932 (3.2%) met the definition of hip fracture using Part A claims, and 41,687 residents (3.3%) met the definition using Part B claims. 4566 hip fractures identified using Part B claims would not have been captured using Part A claims. An additional 227 hip fractures were identified after considering contiguous fracture sites. When ascertaining hip fractures, a definition using outpatient and provider claims identified 11% more fractures than a definition with only inpatient claims. Future studies should publish their definition of fracture and specify if diagnostic codes from contiguous fracture sites were used.

The role of causal maps in intellectual capital measurement and management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Montemari, Marco; Nielsen, Christian

2013-01-01

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the measurement and the management of the dynamic aspects of intellectual capital through the use of causal mapping. Design/methodology/approach – The study details the methods utilized in a single in-depth case study of a network-based business...... of the lag and the persistence of the effects of managerial actions. In addition, it can signal when and how to refine and update the causal map. The combination of these factors supports the dynamic measurement and management of intellectual capital. Research limitations/implications – The paper presented...... the causal mapping approach into practice. Practical implications – The paper highlights the need to build causal maps to enhance the measurement and management of intellectual capital, which is dynamic of nature. As a consequence, this tool can be useful for companies to monitor their intangibles...

Causality and headache triggers

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, Dana P.; Smitherman, Todd A.; Martin, Vincent T.; Penzien, Donald B.; Houle, Timothy T.

2013-01-01

Objective The objective of this study was to explore the conditions necessary to assign causal status to headache triggers. Background The term “headache trigger” is commonly used to label any stimulus that is assumed to cause headaches. However, the assumptions required for determining if a given stimulus in fact has a causal-type relationship in eliciting headaches have not been explicated. Methods A synthesis and application of Rubin’s Causal Model is applied to the context of headache causes. From this application the conditions necessary to infer that one event (trigger) causes another (headache) are outlined using basic assumptions and examples from relevant literature. Results Although many conditions must be satisfied for a causal attribution, three basic assumptions are identified for determining causality in headache triggers: 1) constancy of the sufferer; 2) constancy of the trigger effect; and 3) constancy of the trigger presentation. A valid evaluation of a potential trigger’s effect can only be undertaken once these three basic assumptions are satisfied during formal or informal studies of headache triggers. Conclusions Evaluating these assumptions is extremely difficult or infeasible in clinical practice, and satisfying them during natural experimentation is unlikely. Researchers, practitioners, and headache sufferers are encouraged to avoid natural experimentation to determine the causal effects of headache triggers. Instead, formal experimental designs or retrospective diary studies using advanced statistical modeling techniques provide the best approaches to satisfy the required assumptions and inform causal statements about headache triggers. PMID:23534872

Viscous causal cosmologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Novello, M.; Salim, J.M.; Torres, J.; Oliveira, H.P. de

1989-01-01

A set of spatially homogeneous and isotropic cosmological geometries generated by a class of non-perfect is investigated fluids. The irreversibility if this system is studied in the context of causal thermodynamics which provides a useful mechanism to conform to the non-violation of the causal principle. (author) [pt

Dynamics of Quantum Causal Structures

Science.gov (United States)

Castro-Ruiz, Esteban; Giacomini, Flaminia; Brukner, Časlav

2018-01-01

It was recently suggested that causal structures are both dynamical, because of general relativity, and indefinite, because of quantum theory. The process matrix formalism furnishes a framework for quantum mechanics on indefinite causal structures, where the order between operations of local laboratories is not definite (e.g., one cannot say whether operation in laboratory A occurs before or after operation in laboratory B ). Here, we develop a framework for "dynamics of causal structures," i.e., for transformations of process matrices into process matrices. We show that, under continuous and reversible transformations, the causal order between operations is always preserved. However, the causal order between a subset of operations can be changed under continuous yet nonreversible transformations. An explicit example is that of the quantum switch, where a party in the past affects the causal order of operations of future parties, leading to a transition from a channel from A to B , via superposition of causal orders, to a channel from B to A . We generalize our framework to construct a hierarchy of quantum maps based on transformations of process matrices and transformations thereof.

Relating the thermodynamic arrow of time to the causal arrow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allahverdyan, Armen E; Janzing, Dominik

2008-01-01

Consider a Hamiltonian system that consists of a slow subsystem S and a fast subsystem F. The autonomous dynamics of S is driven by an effective Hamiltonian, but its thermodynamics is unexpected. We show that a well-defined thermodynamic arrow of time (second law) emerges for S whenever there is a well-defined causal arrow from S to F and the back-action is negligible. This is because the back-action of F on S is described by a non-globally Hamiltonian Born–Oppenheimer term that violates the Liouville theorem, and makes the second law inapplicable to S. If S and F are mixing, under the causal arrow condition they are described by microcanonical distributions P(S) and P(S|F). Their structure supports a causal inference principle proposed recently in machine learning

Causal inference based on counterfactuals

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Höfler M

2005-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The counterfactual or potential outcome model has become increasingly standard for causal inference in epidemiological and medical studies. Discussion This paper provides an overview on the counterfactual and related approaches. A variety of conceptual as well as practical issues when estimating causal effects are reviewed. These include causal interactions, imperfect experiments, adjustment for confounding, time-varying exposures, competing risks and the probability of causation. It is argued that the counterfactual model of causal effects captures the main aspects of causality in health sciences and relates to many statistical procedures. Summary Counterfactuals are the basis of causal inference in medicine and epidemiology. Nevertheless, the estimation of counterfactual differences pose several difficulties, primarily in observational studies. These problems, however, reflect fundamental barriers only when learning from observations, and this does not invalidate the counterfactual concept.

The argumentative impact of causal relations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Anne Ellerup

1996-01-01

such as causality, explanation and justification. In certain types of discourse, causal relations also imply an intentional element. This paper describes the way in which the semantic and pragmatic functions of causal markers can be accounted for in terms of linguistic and rhetorical theories of argumentation.......The semantic relations between and within utterances are marked by the use of connectors and adverbials. One type of semantic relations is causal relations expressed by causal markers such as because, therefore, so, for, etc. Some of these markers cover different types of causal relations...

Multivariate Granger causality between electricity generation, exports, prices and GDP in Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lean, Hooi Hooi; Smyth, Russell

2010-01-01

This paper employs annual data for Malaysia from 1970 to 2008 to examine the causal relationship between economic growth, electricity generation, exports and prices in a multivariate model. We find that there is unidirectional Granger causality running from economic growth to electricity generation. However, neither the export-led nor handmaiden theories of trade are supported and there is no causal relationship between prices and economic growth. The policy implication of this result is that electricity conservation policies, including efficiency improvement measures and demand management policies, which are designed to reduce the wastage of electricity and curtail generation can be implemented without having an adverse effect on Malaysia's economic growth. (author)

Entropy for theories with indefinite causal structure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Markes, Sonia; Hardy, Lucien

2011-01-01

Any theory with definite causal structure has a defined past and future, be it defined by light cones or an absolute time scale. Entropy is a concept that has traditionally been reliant on a definite notion of causality. However, without a definite notion of causality, the concept of entropy is not all lost. Indefinite causal structure results from combining probabilistic predictions and dynamical space-time. The causaloid framework lays the mathematical groundwork to be able to treat indefinite causal structure. In this paper, we build on the causaloid mathematics and define a causally-unbiased entropy for an indefinite causal structure. In defining a causally-unbiased entropy, there comes about an emergent idea of causality in the form of a measure of causal connectedness, termed the Q factor.

Perceived causal relations between anxiety, posttraumatic stress and depression: extension to moderation, mediation, and network analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Frewen, Paul A; Schmittmann, Verena D; Bringmann, Laura F; Borsboom, Denny

2013-01-01

Previous research demonstrates that posttraumatic memory reexperiencing, depression, anxiety, and guilt-shame are frequently co-occurring problems that may be causally related. The present study utilized Perceived Causal Relations (PCR) scaling in order to assess participants' own attributions concerning whether and to what degree these co-occurring problems may be causally interrelated. 288 young adults rated the frequency and respective PCR scores associating their symptoms of posttraumatic reexperiencing, depression, anxiety, and guilt-shame. PCR scores were found to moderate associations between the frequency of posttraumatic memory reexperiencing, depression, anxiety, and guilt-shame. Network analyses showed that the number of feedback loops between PCR scores was positively associated with symptom frequencies. Results tentatively support the interpretation of PCR scores as moderators of the association between different psychological problems, and lend support to the hypothesis that increased symptom frequencies are observed in the presence of an increased number of causal feedback loops between symptoms. Additionally, a perceived causal role for the reexperiencing of traumatic memories in exacerbating emotional disturbance was identified.

Perceived causal relations between anxiety, posttraumatic stress and depression: extension to moderation, mediation, and network analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul A. Frewen

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Background: Previous research demonstrates that posttraumatic memory reexperiencing, depression, anxiety, and guilt-shame are frequently co-occurring problems that may be causally related. Objectives: The present study utilized Perceived Causal Relations (PCR scaling in order to assess participants’ own attributions concerning whether and to what degree these co-occurring problems may be causally interrelated. Methods: 288 young adults rated the frequency and respective PCR scores associating their symptoms of posttraumatic reexperiencing, depression, anxiety, and guilt-shame. Results: PCR scores were found to moderate associations between the frequency of posttraumatic memory reexperiencing, depression, anxiety, and guilt-shame. Network analyses showed that the number of feedback loops between PCR scores was positively associated with symptom frequencies. Conclusion: Results tentatively support the interpretation of PCR scores as moderators of the association between different psychological problems, and lend support to the hypothesis that increased symptom frequencies are observed in the presence of an increased number of causal feedback loops between symptoms. Additionally, a perceived causal role for the reexperiencing of traumatic memories in exacerbating emotional disturbance was identified.

Dynamics of Quantum Causal Structures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Esteban Castro-Ruiz

2018-03-01

Full Text Available It was recently suggested that causal structures are both dynamical, because of general relativity, and indefinite, because of quantum theory. The process matrix formalism furnishes a framework for quantum mechanics on indefinite causal structures, where the order between operations of local laboratories is not definite (e.g., one cannot say whether operation in laboratory A occurs before or after operation in laboratory B. Here, we develop a framework for “dynamics of causal structures,” i.e., for transformations of process matrices into process matrices. We show that, under continuous and reversible transformations, the causal order between operations is always preserved. However, the causal order between a subset of operations can be changed under continuous yet nonreversible transformations. An explicit example is that of the quantum switch, where a party in the past affects the causal order of operations of future parties, leading to a transition from a channel from A to B, via superposition of causal orders, to a channel from B to A. We generalize our framework to construct a hierarchy of quantum maps based on transformations of process matrices and transformations thereof.

Is there a relation between the 2D Causal Set action and the Lorentzian Gauss-Bonnet theorem?

Science.gov (United States)

Benincasa, Dionigi M. T.

2011-07-01

We investigate the relation between the two dimensional Causal Set action, Script S, and the Lorentzian Gauss-Bonnet theorem (LGBT). We give compelling reasons why the answer to the title's question is no. In support of this point of view we calculate the causal set inspired action of causal intervals in some two dimensional spacetimes: Minkowski, the flat cylinder and the flat trousers.

Is there a relation between the 2D Causal Set action and the Lorentzian Gauss-Bonnet theorem?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benincasa, Dionigi M T

2011-01-01

We investigate the relation between the two dimensional Causal Set action, S, and the Lorentzian Gauss-Bonnet theorem (LGBT). We give compelling reasons why the answer to the title's question is no. In support of this point of view we calculate the causal set inspired action of causal intervals in some two dimensional spacetimes: Minkowski, the flat cylinder and the flat trousers.

Putting a cap on causality violations in causal dynamical triangulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ambjoern, Jan; Loll, Renate; Westra, Willem; Zohren, Stefan

2007-01-01

The formalism of causal dynamical triangulations (CDT) provides us with a non-perturbatively defined model of quantum gravity, where the sum over histories includes only causal space-time histories. Path integrals of CDT and their continuum limits have been studied in two, three and four dimensions. Here we investigate a generalization of the two-dimensional CDT model, where the causality constraint is partially lifted by introducing branching points with a weight g s , and demonstrate that the system can be solved analytically in the genus-zero sector. The solution is analytic in a neighborhood around weight g s = 0 and cannot be analytically continued to g s = ∞, where the branching is entirely geometric and where one would formally recover standard Euclidean two-dimensional quantum gravity defined via dynamical triangulations or Liouville theory

Causal gene identification using combinatorial V-structure search.

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Ruichu; Zhang, Zhenjie; Hao, Zhifeng

2013-07-01

With the advances of biomedical techniques in the last decade, the costs of human genomic sequencing and genomic activity monitoring are coming down rapidly. To support the huge genome-based business in the near future, researchers are eager to find killer applications based on human genome information. Causal gene identification is one of the most promising applications, which may help the potential patients to estimate the risk of certain genetic diseases and locate the target gene for further genetic therapy. Unfortunately, existing pattern recognition techniques, such as Bayesian networks, cannot be directly applied to find the accurate causal relationship between genes and diseases. This is mainly due to the insufficient number of samples and the extremely high dimensionality of the gene space. In this paper, we present the first practical solution to causal gene identification, utilizing a new combinatorial formulation over V-Structures commonly used in conventional Bayesian networks, by exploring the combinations of significant V-Structures. We prove the NP-hardness of the combinatorial search problem under a general settings on the significance measure on the V-Structures, and present a greedy algorithm to find sub-optimal results. Extensive experiments show that our proposal is both scalable and effective, particularly with interesting findings on the causal genes over real human genome data. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sedentary behaviour and adiposity in youth: a systematic review of reviews and analysis of causality.

Science.gov (United States)

Biddle, Stuart J H; García Bengoechea, Enrique; Wiesner, Glen

2017-03-28

Sedentary behaviour (sitting time) has becoming a very popular topic for research and translation since early studies on TV viewing in children in the 1980s. The most studied area for sedentary behaviour health outcomes has been adiposity in young people. However, the literature is replete with inconsistencies. We conducted a systematic review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses to provide a comprehensive analysis of evidence and state-of-the-art synthesis on whether sedentary behaviours are associated with adiposity in young people, and to what extent any association can be considered 'causal'. Searches yielded 29 systematic reviews of over 450 separate papers. We analysed results by observational (cross-sectional and longitudinal) and intervention designs. Small associations were reported for screen time and adiposity from cross-sectional evidence, but associations were less consistent from longitudinal studies. Studies using objective accelerometer measures of sedentary behaviour yielded null associations. Most studies assessed BMI/BMI-z. Interventions to reduce sedentary behaviour produced modest effects for weight status and adiposity. Accounting for effects from sedentary behaviour reduction alone is difficult as many interventions included additional changes in behaviour, such as physical activity and dietary intake. Analysis of causality guided by the classic Bradford Hill criteria concluded that there is no evidence for a causal association between sedentary behaviour and adiposity in youth, although a small dose-response association exists. Associations between sedentary behaviour and adiposity in children and adolescents are small to very small and there is little to no evidence that this association is causal. This remains a complex field with different exposure and outcome measures and research designs. But claims for 'clear' associations between sedentary behaviour and adiposity in youth, and certainly for causality, are premature or misguided.

A call for theory to support the use of causal-formative indicators: A commentary on Bollen and Diamantopoulos (2017).

Science.gov (United States)

Hardin, Andrew

2017-09-01

In this issue, Bollen and Diamantopoulos (2017) defend causal-formative indicators against several common criticisms leveled by scholars who oppose their use. In doing so, the authors make several convincing assertions: Constructs exist independently from their measures; theory determines whether indicators cause or measure latent variables; and reflective and causal-formative indicators are both subject to interpretational confounding. However, despite being a well-reasoned, comprehensive defense of causal-formative indicators, no single article can address all of the issues associated with this debate. Thus, Bollen and Diamantopoulos leave a few fundamental issues unresolved. For example, how can researchers establish the reliability of indicators that may include measurement error? Moreover, how should researchers interpret disturbance terms that capture sources of influence related to both the empirical definition of the latent variable and to the theoretical definition of the construct? Relatedly, how should researchers reconcile the requirement for a census of causal-formative indicators with the knowledge that indicators are likely missing from the empirically estimated latent variable? This commentary develops 6 related research questions to draw attention to these fundamental issues, and to call for future research that can lead to the development of theory to guide the use of causal-formative indicators. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Causality Statistical Perspectives and Applications

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Berzuini, Carlo; Bernardinell, Luisa

2012-01-01

A state of the art volume on statistical causality Causality: Statistical Perspectives and Applications presents a wide-ranging collection of seminal contributions by renowned experts in the field, providing a thorough treatment of all aspects of statistical causality. It covers the various formalisms in current use, methods for applying them to specific problems, and the special requirements of a range of examples from medicine, biology and economics to political science. This book:Provides a clear account and comparison of formal languages, concepts and models for statistical causality. Addr

Questions on causality and responsibility arising from an outbreak of Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections in Norway

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hofmann Bjørn

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract In 2002, Norway experienced a large outbreak of Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections in hospitals with 231 confirmed cases. This fuelled intense public and professional debates on what were the causes and who were responsible. In epidemiology, other sciences, in philosophy and in law there is a long tradition of discussing the concept of causality. We use this outbreak as a case; apply various theories of causality from different disciplines to discuss the roles and responsibilities of some of the parties involved. Mackie's concept of INUS conditions, Hill's nine viewpoints to study association for claiming causation, deterministic and probabilistic ways of reasoning, all shed light on the issues of causality in this outbreak. Moreover, applying legal theories of causation (counterfactual reasoning and the "but-for" test and the NESS test proved especially useful, but the case also illustrated the weaknesses of the various theories of causation. We conclude that many factors contributed to causing the outbreak, but that contamination of a medical device in the production facility was the major necessary condition. The reuse of the medical device in hospitals contributed primarily to the size of the outbreak. The unintended error by its producer – and to a minor extent by the hospital practice – was mainly due to non-application of relevant knowledge and skills, and appears to constitute professional negligence. Due to criminal procedure laws and other factors outside the discourse of causality, no one was criminally charged for the outbreak which caused much suffering and shortening the life of at least 34 people.

Is there a relation between the 2D Causal Set action and the Lorentzian Gauss-Bonnet theorem?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benincasa, Dionigi M T, E-mail: db1808@ic.ac.uk [Theoretical Physics Group, Blackett Laboratory, Imperial College, Prince Consort Rd., London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom)

2011-07-08

We investigate the relation between the two dimensional Causal Set action, S, and the Lorentzian Gauss-Bonnet theorem (LGBT). We give compelling reasons why the answer to the title's question is no. In support of this point of view we calculate the causal set inspired action of causal intervals in some two dimensional spacetimes: Minkowski, the flat cylinder and the flat trousers.

A decision support framework for extension of time claims for the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

It is often said that the owner of a building or construction project aims to achieve three .... to categorise delays in terms of the impact, risk and cause of the delay. Figure 1 ... of delays is essential for the successful execution of delay-claim analysis. .... factors beyond the control of the client and the contractor. Although most ...

A frequency domain subspace algorithm for mixed causal, anti-causal LTI systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fraanje, Rufus; Verhaegen, Michel; Verdult, Vincent; Pintelon, Rik

2003-01-01

The paper extends the subspacc identification method to estimate state-space models from frequency response function (FRF) samples, proposed by McKelvey et al. (1996) for mixed causal/anti-causal systems, and shows that other frequency domain subspace algorithms can be extended similarly. The method

The Functions of Danish Causal Conjunctions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rita Therkelsen

2004-01-01

Full Text Available In the article I propose an analysis of the Danish causal conjunctions fordi, siden and for based on the framework of Danish Functional Grammar. As conjunctions they relate two clauses, and their semantics have in common that it indicates a causal relationship between the clauses. The causal conjunctions are different as far as their distribution is concerned; siden conjoins a subordinate clause and a main clause, for conjoins two main clauses, and fordi is able to do both. Methodologically I have based my analysis on these distributional properties comparing siden and fordi conjoining a subordinate and a main clause, and comparing for and fordi conjoining two main clauses, following the thesis that they would establish a causal relationship between different kinds of content. My main findings are that fordi establishes a causal relationship between the events referred to by the two clauses, and the whole utterance functions as a statement of this causal relationship. Siden presupposes such a general causal relationship between the two events and puts forward the causing event as a reason for assuming or wishing or ordering the caused event, siden thus establishes a causal relationship between an event and a speech act. For equally presupposes a general causal relationship between two events and it establishes a causal relationship between speech acts, and fordi conjoining two main clauses is able to do this too, but in this position it also maintains its event-relating ability, the interpretation depending on contextual factors.

Space and time in perceptual causality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benjamin Straube

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Inferring causality is a fundamental feature of human cognition that allows us to theorize about and predict future states of the world. Michotte suggested that humans automatically perceive causality based on certain perceptual features of events. However, individual differences in judgments of perceptual causality cast doubt on Michotte’s view. To gain insights in the neural basis of individual difference in the perception of causality, our participants judged causal relationships in animations of a blue ball colliding with a red ball (a launching event while fMRI-data were acquired. Spatial continuity and temporal contiguity were varied parametrically in these stimuli. We did not find consistent brain activation differences between trials judged as caused and those judged as non-caused, making it unlikely that humans have universal instantiation of perceptual causality in the brain. However, participants were slower to respond to and showed greater neural activity for violations of causality, suggesting that humans are biased to expect causal relationships when moving objects appear to interact. Our participants demonstrated considerable individual differences in their sensitivity to spatial and temporal characteristics in perceiving causality. These qualitative differences in sensitivity to time or space in perceiving causality were instantiated in individual differences in activation of the left basal ganglia or right parietal lobe, respectively. Thus, the perception that the movement of one object causes the movement of another is triggered by elemental spatial and temporal sensitivities, which themselves are instantiated in specific distinct neural networks.

Causal inference in nonlinear systems: Granger causality versus time-delayed mutual information

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Songting; Xiao, Yanyang; Zhou, Douglas; Cai, David

2018-05-01

The Granger causality (GC) analysis has been extensively applied to infer causal interactions in dynamical systems arising from economy and finance, physics, bioinformatics, neuroscience, social science, and many other fields. In the presence of potential nonlinearity in these systems, the validity of the GC analysis in general is questionable. To illustrate this, here we first construct minimal nonlinear systems and show that the GC analysis fails to infer causal relations in these systems—it gives rise to all types of incorrect causal directions. In contrast, we show that the time-delayed mutual information (TDMI) analysis is able to successfully identify the direction of interactions underlying these nonlinear systems. We then apply both methods to neuroscience data collected from experiments and demonstrate that the TDMI analysis but not the GC analysis can identify the direction of interactions among neuronal signals. Our work exemplifies inference hazards in the GC analysis in nonlinear systems and suggests that the TDMI analysis can be an appropriate tool in such a case.

Conditional Granger Causality of Diffusion Processes

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Wahl, B.; Feudel, U.; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Wächter, M.; Peinke, J.; Freund, J.A.

2017-01-01

Roč. 90, č. 10 (2017), č. článku 197. ISSN 1434-6028 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-23940S; GA MZd(CZ) NV15-29835A Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : Granger causality * stochastic process * diffusion process * nonlinear dynamical systems Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Computer sciences, information science, bioinformathics (hardware development to be 2.2, social aspect to be 5.8) Impact factor: 1.461, year: 2016

Kant and Hegel's Responses to Hume's Skepticism Concerning Causality: An Evolutionary Epistemological Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam Christian Scarfe

2012-05-01

Full Text Available According to Hume, determinations of necessary causal connection are without empirical warrant, but, as he maintains, the concept of causality qua necessary connection is indispensable to human beings, having survival value for them, a claim which points to the biological significance of this concept. In contrast to Hume, Kant argues that the causal principle qua necessary connection belongs to the a priori conceptual framework by which rational beings constitute their experience and render the world intelligible. In “Kant’s Doctrine of the A Priori in Light of Contemporary Biology” (1941 / 1962 evolutionary epistemologist Konrad Lorenz sought to adapt Kant’s philosophy to contemporary biology by arguing that the a priori concepts of the understanding can be interpreted as comprising a biologically inherited framework, yet one that is provisional and in flux. Such an evolutionary interpretation of both Hume and Kant’s perspectives of the lacuna concerning causality brings the ideas of these thinkers closer together. Kant himself used suggestive analogies between the major epistemological positions concerning the origin of the a priori concepts of the understanding and the major biological theories of his time concerning the generation and development of organisms. Nevertheless, Kant would probably be reluctant to embrace such an evolutionarily-oriented conception of the categories, given his descriptions of them as self-thought, a priori first principles having a purely intellectual origin, belonging as a very condition for the possibility of the experience of rational beings in general, and as neither the product of a process of development, nor subject to one. This paper shows how Hegel’s emphasis on the dialectical progression of the logical Concept (Begriff can help to ground Lorenz’s evolutionary neo-Kantianism. Toward the end of the paper, I discuss the evolutionary relevance of skepticism and critical thinking in this

Does the scientific evidence support the advertising claims made for products containing Lactobacillus casei and Bifidobacterium lactis? A systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Meléndez-Illanes, Lorena; González-Díaz, Cristina; Chilet-Rosell, Elisa; Álvarez-Dardet, Carlos

2016-09-01

To analyse the scientific evidence that exists for the advertising claims made for two products containing Lactobacillus casei and Bifidobacterium lactis and to conduct a comparison between the published literature and what is presented in the corporate website. Systematic review, using Medline through Pubmed and Embase. We included human clinical trials that exclusively measured the effect of Lactobacillus casei or Bifidobacterium lactis on a healthy population, and where the objective was related to the health claims made for certain products in advertising. We assessed the levels of evidence and the strength of the recommendation according to the classification criteria established by the Oxford Centre for Evidence Based Medicine (CEBM). We also assessed the outcomes of the studies published on the website that did not appear in the search. Of the 440 articles identified, 16 met the inclusion criteria. Only four (25%) of these presented a level of evidence of 1b and a recommendation grade of A, all corresponding to studies on product containing Bifidobacterium lactis, and only 12 of the 16 studies were published on the corporate website (47). There is insufficient scientific evidence to support the health claims made for these products, especially in the case of product containing Lactobacillus casei. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Comparison of Six Methods for the Detection of Causality in a Bivariate Time Series

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Krakovská, A.; Jakubík, J.; Chvosteková, M.; Coufal, David; Jajcay, Nikola; Paluš, Milan

2018-01-01

Roč. 97, č. 4 (2018), č. článku 042207. ISSN 2470-0045 R&D Projects: GA MZd(CZ) NV15-33250A Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : comparative study * causality detection * bivariate models * Granger causality * transfer entropy * convergent cross mappings Impact factor: 2.366, year: 2016 https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.97.042207

Paradoxical Behavior of Granger Causality

Science.gov (United States)

Witt, Annette; Battaglia, Demian; Gail, Alexander

2013-03-01

Granger causality is a standard tool for the description of directed interaction of network components and is popular in many scientific fields including econometrics, neuroscience and climate science. For time series that can be modeled as bivariate auto-regressive processes we analytically derive an expression for spectrally decomposed Granger Causality (SDGC) and show that this quantity depends only on two out of four groups of model parameters. Then we present examples of such processes whose SDGC expose paradoxical behavior in the sense that causality is high for frequency ranges with low spectral power. For avoiding misinterpretations of Granger causality analysis we propose to complement it by partial spectral analysis. Our findings are illustrated by an example from brain electrophysiology. Finally, we draw implications for the conventional definition of Granger causality. Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience Goettingen

On causality of extreme events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Massimiliano Zanin

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality within static data sets, by analysing how extreme events in one element correspond to the appearance of extreme events in a second one. The metric is able to detect non-linear causalities; to analyse both cross-sectional and longitudinal data sets; and to discriminate between real causalities and correlations caused by confounding factors. We validate the metric through synthetic data, dynamical and chaotic systems, and data representing the human brain activity in a cognitive task. We further show how the proposed metric is able to outperform classical causality metrics, provided non-linear relationships are present and large enough data sets are available.

Pediatric radiology malpractice claims - characteristics and comparison to adult radiology claims

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Breen, Micheal A.; Taylor, George A. [Boston Children' s Hospital, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); Dwyer, Kathy; Yu-Moe, Winnie [CRICO Risk Management Foundation, Boston, MA (United States)

2017-06-15

Medical malpractice is the primary method by which people who believe they have suffered an injury in the course of medical care seek compensation in the United States and Canada. An increasing body of research demonstrates that failure to correctly diagnose is the most common allegation made in malpractice claims against radiologists. Since the 1994 survey by the Society of Chairmen of Radiology in Children's Hospitals (SCORCH), no other published studies have specifically examined the frequency or clinical context of malpractice claims against pediatric radiologists or arising from pediatric imaging interpretation. We hypothesize that the frequency, character and outcome of malpractice claims made against pediatric radiologists differ from those seen in general radiology practice. We searched the Controlled Risk Insurance Co. (CRICO) Strategies' Comparative Benchmarking System (CBS), a private repository of approximately 350,000 open and closed medical malpractice claims in the United States, for claims related to pediatric radiology. We further queried these cases for the major allegation, the clinical environment in which the claim arose, the clinical severity of the alleged injury, indemnity paid (if payment was made), primary imaging modality involved (if applicable) and primary International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision (ICD-9) diagnosis underlying the claim. There were a total of 27,056 fully coded claims of medical malpractice in the CBS database in the 5-year period between Jan. 1, 2010, and Dec. 31, 2014. Of these, 1,472 cases (5.4%) involved patients younger than 18 years. Radiology was the primary service responsible for 71/1,472 (4.8%) pediatric cases. There were statistically significant differences in average payout for pediatric radiology claims ($314,671) compared to adult radiology claims ($174,033). The allegations were primarily diagnosis-related in 70% of pediatric radiology claims. The most common imaging modality

Pediatric radiology malpractice claims - characteristics and comparison to adult radiology claims

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Breen, Micheal A.; Taylor, George A.; Dwyer, Kathy; Yu-Moe, Winnie

2017-01-01

Medical malpractice is the primary method by which people who believe they have suffered an injury in the course of medical care seek compensation in the United States and Canada. An increasing body of research demonstrates that failure to correctly diagnose is the most common allegation made in malpractice claims against radiologists. Since the 1994 survey by the Society of Chairmen of Radiology in Children's Hospitals (SCORCH), no other published studies have specifically examined the frequency or clinical context of malpractice claims against pediatric radiologists or arising from pediatric imaging interpretation. We hypothesize that the frequency, character and outcome of malpractice claims made against pediatric radiologists differ from those seen in general radiology practice. We searched the Controlled Risk Insurance Co. (CRICO) Strategies' Comparative Benchmarking System (CBS), a private repository of approximately 350,000 open and closed medical malpractice claims in the United States, for claims related to pediatric radiology. We further queried these cases for the major allegation, the clinical environment in which the claim arose, the clinical severity of the alleged injury, indemnity paid (if payment was made), primary imaging modality involved (if applicable) and primary International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision (ICD-9) diagnosis underlying the claim. There were a total of 27,056 fully coded claims of medical malpractice in the CBS database in the 5-year period between Jan. 1, 2010, and Dec. 31, 2014. Of these, 1,472 cases (5.4%) involved patients younger than 18 years. Radiology was the primary service responsible for 71/1,472 (4.8%) pediatric cases. There were statistically significant differences in average payout for pediatric radiology claims ($314,671) compared to adult radiology claims ($174,033). The allegations were primarily diagnosis-related in 70% of pediatric radiology claims. The most common imaging modality implicated in

Pediatric radiology malpractice claims - characteristics and comparison to adult radiology claims.

Science.gov (United States)

Breen, Micheál A; Dwyer, Kathy; Yu-Moe, Winnie; Taylor, George A

2017-06-01

Medical malpractice is the primary method by which people who believe they have suffered an injury in the course of medical care seek compensation in the United States and Canada. An increasing body of research demonstrates that failure to correctly diagnose is the most common allegation made in malpractice claims against radiologists. Since the 1994 survey by the Society of Chairmen of Radiology in Children's Hospitals (SCORCH), no other published studies have specifically examined the frequency or clinical context of malpractice claims against pediatric radiologists or arising from pediatric imaging interpretation. We hypothesize that the frequency, character and outcome of malpractice claims made against pediatric radiologists differ from those seen in general radiology practice. We searched the Controlled Risk Insurance Co. (CRICO) Strategies' Comparative Benchmarking System (CBS), a private repository of approximately 350,000 open and closed medical malpractice claims in the United States, for claims related to pediatric radiology. We further queried these cases for the major allegation, the clinical environment in which the claim arose, the clinical severity of the alleged injury, indemnity paid (if payment was made), primary imaging modality involved (if applicable) and primary International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision (ICD-9) diagnosis underlying the claim. There were a total of 27,056 fully coded claims of medical malpractice in the CBS database in the 5-year period between Jan. 1, 2010, and Dec. 31, 2014. Of these, 1,472 cases (5.4%) involved patients younger than 18 years. Radiology was the primary service responsible for 71/1,472 (4.8%) pediatric cases. There were statistically significant differences in average payout for pediatric radiology claims ($314,671) compared to adult radiology claims ($174,033). The allegations were primarily diagnosis-related in 70% of pediatric radiology claims. The most common imaging modality implicated in

Time-varying causality between energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth: evidence from US states.

Science.gov (United States)

Tzeremes, Panayiotis

2018-02-01

This study is the first attempt to investigate the relationship between CO 2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth at a state level, for the 50 US states, through a time-varying causality approach using annual data over the periods 1960-2010. The time-varying causality test facilitates the better understanding of the causal relationship between the covariates owing to the fact that it might identify causalities when the time-constant hypothesis is rejected. Our findings indicate the existence of a time-varying causality at the state level. Specifically, the results probe eight bidirectional time-varying causalities between energy consumption and CO 2 emission, six cases of two-way time-varying causalities between economic growth and energy consumption, and five bidirectional time-varying causalities between economic growth and CO 2 emission. Moreover, we examine the traditional environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for the states. Notably, our results do not endorse the validity of the EKC, albeit the majority of states support an inverted N-shaped relationship. Lastly, we can identify multiple policy implications based on the empirical results.

Moral asymmetries in judgments of agency withstand ludicrous causal deviance

Science.gov (United States)

Sousa, Paulo; Holbrook, Colin; Swiney, Lauren

2015-01-01

Americans have been shown to attribute greater intentionality to immoral than to amoral actions in cases of causal deviance, that is, cases where a goal is satisfied in a way that deviates from initially planned means (e.g., a gunman wants to hit a target and his hand slips, but the bullet ricochets off a rock into the target). However, past research has yet to assess whether this asymmetry persists in cases of extreme causal deviance. Here, we manipulated the level of mild to extreme causal deviance of an immoral versus amoral act. The asymmetry in attributions of intentionality was observed at all but the most extreme level of causal deviance, and, as we hypothesized, was mediated by attributions of blame/credit and judgments of action performance. These findings are discussed as they support a multiple-concepts interpretation of the asymmetry, wherein blame renders a naïve concept of intentional action (the outcome matches the intention) more salient than a composite concept (the outcome matches the intention and was brought about by planned means), and in terms of their implications for cross-cultural research on judgments of agency. PMID:26441755

Using causal maps to support ex-post assessment of social impacts of dams

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aledo, Antonio; García-Andreu, Hugo; Pinese, José

2015-01-01

- Highlights: • We defend the usefulness of causal maps (CM) for ex-post impact assessment of dams. • Political decisions are presented as unavoidable technical measures. • CM enable the identification of multiple causes involved in the dam impacts. • An alternative management of the dams is shown from the precise tracking of the causes. • Participatory CM better the quality of information and the governance of the research. This paper presents the results of an ex-post assessment of two important dams in Brazil. The study follows the principles of Social Impact Management, which offer a suitable framework for analyzing the complex social transformations triggered by hydroelectric dams. In the implementation of this approach, participative causal maps were used to identify the ex-post social impacts of the Porto Primavera and Rosana dams on the community of Porto Rico, located along the High Paraná River. We found that in the operation of dams there are intermediate causes of a political nature, stemming from decisions based on values and interests not determined by neutral, exclusively technical reasons; and this insight opens up an area of action for managing the negative impacts of dams

Using causal maps to support ex-post assessment of social impacts of dams

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aledo, Antonio, E-mail: Antonio.Aledo@ua.es [Departamento de Sociología 1, Universidad de Alicante, Alicante 03080 (Spain); García-Andreu, Hugo, E-mail: Hugo.Andreu@ua.es [Departamento de Sociología 1, Universidad de Alicante, Alicante 03080 (Spain); Pinese, José, E-mail: pinese@uel.br [Centro de Ciências Exatas, UEL, Rodovia Celso Cid, Km 380, Campus Universitário, Londrina, PR 86057-970 (Brazil)

2015-11-15

- Highlights: • We defend the usefulness of causal maps (CM) for ex-post impact assessment of dams. • Political decisions are presented as unavoidable technical measures. • CM enable the identification of multiple causes involved in the dam impacts. • An alternative management of the dams is shown from the precise tracking of the causes. • Participatory CM better the quality of information and the governance of the research. This paper presents the results of an ex-post assessment of two important dams in Brazil. The study follows the principles of Social Impact Management, which offer a suitable framework for analyzing the complex social transformations triggered by hydroelectric dams. In the implementation of this approach, participative causal maps were used to identify the ex-post social impacts of the Porto Primavera and Rosana dams on the community of Porto Rico, located along the High Paraná River. We found that in the operation of dams there are intermediate causes of a political nature, stemming from decisions based on values and interests not determined by neutral, exclusively technical reasons; and this insight opens up an area of action for managing the negative impacts of dams.

Causal symmetric spaces

CERN Document Server

Olafsson, Gestur; Helgason, Sigurdur

1996-01-01

This book is intended to introduce researchers and graduate students to the concepts of causal symmetric spaces. To date, results of recent studies considered standard by specialists have not been widely published. This book seeks to bring this information to students and researchers in geometry and analysis on causal symmetric spaces.Includes the newest results in harmonic analysis including Spherical functions on ordered symmetric space and the holmorphic discrete series and Hardy spaces on compactly casual symmetric spacesDeals with the infinitesimal situation, coverings of symmetric spaces, classification of causal symmetric pairs and invariant cone fieldsPresents basic geometric properties of semi-simple symmetric spacesIncludes appendices on Lie algebras and Lie groups, Bounded symmetric domains (Cayley transforms), Antiholomorphic Involutions on Bounded Domains and Para-Hermitian Symmetric Spaces

50 CFR 296.5 - Instructions for filing claims.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... method of position fixing available to the claimant, (vi) A description of the item or obstruction (if... cost. (6) The amount claimed for economic loss and the basis for that amount with supporting...

Predicting Causal Relationships from Biological Data: Applying Automated Causal Discovery on Mass Cytometry Data of Human Immune Cells

KAUST Repository

Triantafillou, Sofia; Lagani, Vincenzo; Heinze-Deml, Christina; Schmidt, Angelika; Tegner, Jesper; Tsamardinos, Ioannis

2017-01-01

Learning the causal relationships that define a molecular system allows us to predict how the system will respond to different interventions. Distinguishing causality from mere association typically requires randomized experiments. Methods for automated  causal discovery from limited experiments exist, but have so far rarely been tested in systems biology applications. In this work, we apply state-of-the art causal discovery methods on a large collection of public mass cytometry data sets, measuring intra-cellular signaling proteins of the human immune system and their response to several perturbations. We show how different experimental conditions can be used to facilitate causal discovery, and apply two fundamental methods that produce context-specific causal predictions. Causal predictions were reproducible across independent data sets from two different studies, but often disagree with the KEGG pathway databases. Within this context, we discuss the caveats we need to overcome for automated causal discovery to become a part of the routine data analysis in systems biology.

Predicting Causal Relationships from Biological Data: Applying Automated Causal Discovery on Mass Cytometry Data of Human Immune Cells

KAUST Repository

Triantafillou, Sofia

2017-09-29

Learning the causal relationships that define a molecular system allows us to predict how the system will respond to different interventions. Distinguishing causality from mere association typically requires randomized experiments. Methods for automated  causal discovery from limited experiments exist, but have so far rarely been tested in systems biology applications. In this work, we apply state-of-the art causal discovery methods on a large collection of public mass cytometry data sets, measuring intra-cellular signaling proteins of the human immune system and their response to several perturbations. We show how different experimental conditions can be used to facilitate causal discovery, and apply two fundamental methods that produce context-specific causal predictions. Causal predictions were reproducible across independent data sets from two different studies, but often disagree with the KEGG pathway databases. Within this context, we discuss the caveats we need to overcome for automated causal discovery to become a part of the routine data analysis in systems biology.

Work ability, effort-reward imbalance and disability pension claims.

Science.gov (United States)

Wienert, J; Spanier, K; Radoschewski, F M; Bethge, M

2017-12-30

Effort-reward imbalance (ERI) and self-rated work ability are known independent correlates and predictors of intended disability pension claims. However, little research has focused on the interrelationship between the three and whether self-rated work ability mediates the relationship between ERI and intended disability pension claims. To investigate whether self-rated work ability mediates the association between ERI and intended disability pension claims. Baseline data from participants of the Third German Sociomedical Panel of Employees, a 5-year cohort study that investigates determinants of work ability, rehabilitation utilization and disability pensions in employees who have previously received sickness benefits, were analysed. We tested direct associations between ERI with intended disability pension claims (Model 1) and self-rated work ability (Model 2). Additionally, we tested whether work ability mediates the association between ERI and intended disability pension claims (Model 3). There were 2585 participants. Model 1 indicated a significant association between ERI and intended disability pension claims. Model 2 showed a significant association between ERI and self-rated work ability. The mediation in Model 3 revealed a significant indirect association between ERI and intended disability pension claims via self-rated work ability. There was no significant direct association between ERI and intended disability pension claims. Our results support the adverse health-related impact of ERI on self-rated work ability and intended disability pension claims. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Using 'big data' to validate claims made in the pharmaceutical approval process.

Science.gov (United States)

Wasser, Thomas; Haynes, Kevin; Barron, John; Cziraky, Mark

2015-01-01

Big Data in the healthcare setting refers to the storage, assimilation, and analysis of large quantities of information regarding patient care. These data can be collected and stored in a wide variety of ways including electronic medical records collected at the patient bedside, or through medical records that are coded and passed to insurance companies for reimbursement. When these data are processed it is possible to validate claims as a part of the regulatory review process regarding the anticipated performance of medications and devices. In order to analyze properly claims by manufacturers and others, there is a need to express claims in terms that are testable in a timeframe that is useful and meaningful to formulary committees. Claims for the comparative benefits and costs, including budget impact, of products and devices need to be expressed in measurable terms, ideally in the context of submission or validation protocols. Claims should be either consistent with accessible Big Data or able to support observational studies where Big Data identifies target populations. Protocols should identify, in disaggregated terms, key variables that would lead to direct or proxy validation. Once these variables are identified, Big Data can be used to query massive quantities of data in the validation process. Research can be passive or active in nature. Passive, where the data are collected retrospectively; active where the researcher is prospectively looking for indicators of co-morbid conditions, side-effects or adverse events, testing these indicators to determine if claims are within desired ranges set forth by the manufacturer. Additionally, Big Data can be used to assess the effectiveness of therapy through health insurance records. This, for example, could indicate that disease or co-morbid conditions cease to be treated. Understanding the basic strengths and weaknesses of Big Data in the claim validation process provides a glimpse of the value that this research

Causal relationship between trade openness, economic growth and energy consumption: A panel data analysis of Asian countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nasreen, Samia; Anwar, Sofia

2014-01-01

This paper explores the causal relationship between economic growth, trade openness and energy consumption using data of 15 Asian countries. The study covers the period of 1980–2011. We have applied panel cointegration and causality approaches to examine the long-run and causal relationship between variables. Empirical results confirm the presence of cointegration between variables. The impact of economic growth and trade openness on energy consumption is found to be positive. The panel Granger causality analysis reveals the bidirectional causality between economic growth and energy consumption, trade openness and energy consumption. - Highlights: • This study analyzes causality between energy, growth and trade in the Asian region. • Empirical results supported cointegrating relationship between variables. • Positive impact of growth and trade openness on energy usage is found in the long run. • Bidirectional Granger causality is observed between selected variables in the long run

Investigating the multi-causal and complex nature of the accident causal influence of construction project features.

Science.gov (United States)

Manu, Patrick A; Ankrah, Nii A; Proverbs, David G; Suresh, Subashini

2012-09-01

Construction project features (CPFs) are organisational, physical and operational attributes that characterise construction projects. Although previous studies have examined the accident causal influence of CPFs, the multi-causal attribute of this causal phenomenon still remain elusive and thus requires further investigation. Aiming to shed light on this facet of the accident causal phenomenon of CPFs, this study examines relevant literature and crystallises the attained insight of the multi-causal attribute by a graphical model which is subsequently operationalised by a derived mathematical risk expression that offers a systematic approach for evaluating the potential of CPFs to cause harm and consequently their health and safety (H&S) risk implications. The graphical model and the risk expression put forth by the study thus advance current understanding of the accident causal phenomenon of CPFs and they present an opportunity for project participants to manage the H&S risk associated with CPFs from the early stages of project procurement. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

BenefitClaimWebServiceBean/BenefitClaimWebService

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Veterans Affairs — A formal or informal request for a type of monetary or non-monetary benefit. This service provides benefit claims and benefit claim special issues data, allows the...

Principal stratification in causal inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Frangakis, Constantine E; Rubin, Donald B

2002-03-01

Many scientific problems require that treatment comparisons be adjusted for posttreatment variables, but the estimands underlying standard methods are not causal effects. To address this deficiency, we propose a general framework for comparing treatments adjusting for posttreatment variables that yields principal effects based on principal stratification. Principal stratification with respect to a posttreatment variable is a cross-classification of subjects defined by the joint potential values of that posttreatment variable tinder each of the treatments being compared. Principal effects are causal effects within a principal stratum. The key property of principal strata is that they are not affected by treatment assignment and therefore can be used just as any pretreatment covariate. such as age category. As a result, the central property of our principal effects is that they are always causal effects and do not suffer from the complications of standard posttreatment-adjusted estimands. We discuss briefly that such principal causal effects are the link between three recent applications with adjustment for posttreatment variables: (i) treatment noncompliance, (ii) missing outcomes (dropout) following treatment noncompliance. and (iii) censoring by death. We then attack the problem of surrogate or biomarker endpoints, where we show, using principal causal effects, that all current definitions of surrogacy, even when perfectly true, do not generally have the desired interpretation as causal effects of treatment on outcome. We go on to forrmulate estimands based on principal stratification and principal causal effects and show their superiority.

[A study of relation between hopelessness and causal attribution in school-aged children].

Science.gov (United States)

Sakurai, S

1989-12-01

This study was conducted to investigate the relation between hopelessness and causal attribution in Japanese school-aged children. In Study 1, the Japanese edition of hopelessness scale for children developed by Kazdin, French, Unis, Esveldt-Dawsan, and Sherick (1983) was constructed. Seventeen original items were translated into Japanese and they were administrated to 405 fifth- and sixth-graders. All of the items could be included to the Japanese edition of hopelessness scale. The reliability and validity was examined. In Study 2, the relation between hopelessness and causal attribution in children were investigated. The causal attribution questionnaire developed by Higuchi, Kambare, and Otsuka (1983) and the hopelessness scale developed by Study 1 were administered to 188 sixth-graders. Children with high scores in hopelessness scale significantly attributed negative events to much more effort factor than children with low scores. It supports neither the reformulated learned helplessness model nor the causal attribution theory of achievement motivation. It was explained mainly from points of self-serving attribution, cultural difference, and social desirability. Some questions were discussed for developing studies on depression and causal attribution in Japan.

Causal Set Generator and Action Computer

OpenAIRE

Cunningham, William; Krioukov, Dmitri

2017-01-01

The causal set approach to quantum gravity has gained traction over the past three decades, but numerical experiments involving causal sets have been limited to relatively small scales. The software suite presented here provides a new framework for the generation and study of causal sets. Its efficiency surpasses previous implementations by several orders of magnitude. We highlight several important features of the code, including the compact data structures, the $O(N^2)$ causal set generatio...

Evaluation of the causal framework used for setting national ambient air quality standards.

Science.gov (United States)

Goodman, Julie E; Prueitt, Robyn L; Sax, Sonja N; Bailey, Lisa A; Rhomberg, Lorenz R

2013-11-01

Abstract A scientifically sound assessment of the potential hazards associated with a substance requires a systematic, objective and transparent evaluation of the weight of evidence (WoE) for causality of health effects. We critically evaluated the current WoE framework for causal determination used in the United States Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) assessments of the scientific data on air pollutants for the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) review process, including its methods for literature searches; study selection, evaluation and integration; and causal judgments. The causal framework used in recent NAAQS evaluations has many valuable features, but it could be more explicit in some cases, and some features are missing that should be included in every WoE evaluation. Because of this, it has not always been applied consistently in evaluations of causality, leading to conclusions that are not always supported by the overall WoE, as we demonstrate using EPA's ozone Integrated Science Assessment as a case study. We propose additions to the NAAQS causal framework based on best practices gleaned from a previously conducted survey of available WoE frameworks. A revision of the NAAQS causal framework so that it more closely aligns with these best practices and the full and consistent application of the framework will improve future assessments of the potential health effects of criteria air pollutants by making the assessments more thorough, transparent, and scientifically sound.

Causal reports: Context-dependent contributions of intuitive physics and visual impressions of launching.

Science.gov (United States)

Vicovaro, Michele

2018-05-01

Everyday causal reports appear to be based on a blend of perceptual and cognitive processes. Causality can sometimes be perceived automatically through low-level visual processing of stimuli, but it can also be inferred on the basis of an intuitive understanding of the physical mechanism that underlies an observable event. We investigated how visual impressions of launching and the intuitive physics of collisions contribute to the formation of explicit causal responses. In Experiment 1, participants observed collisions between realistic objects differing in apparent material and hence implied mass, whereas in Experiment 2, participants observed collisions between abstract, non-material objects. The results of Experiment 1 showed that ratings of causality were mainly driven by the intuitive physics of collisions, whereas the results of Experiment 2 provide some support to the hypothesis that ratings of causality were mainly driven by visual impressions of launching. These results suggest that stimulus factors and experimental design factors - such as the realism of the stimuli and the variation in the implied mass of the colliding objects - may determine the relative contributions of perceptual and post-perceptual cognitive processes to explicit causal responses. A revised version of the impetus transmission heuristic provides a satisfactory explanation for these results, whereas the hypothesis that causal responses and intuitive physics are based on the internalization of physical laws does not. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spectral dimension in causal set quantum gravity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eichhorn, Astrid; Mizera, Sebastian

2014-01-01

We evaluate the spectral dimension in causal set quantum gravity by simulating random walks on causal sets. In contrast to other approaches to quantum gravity, we find an increasing spectral dimension at small scales. This observation can be connected to the nonlocality of causal set theory that is deeply rooted in its fundamentally Lorentzian nature. Based on its large-scale behaviour, we conjecture that the spectral dimension can serve as a tool to distinguish causal sets that approximate manifolds from those that do not. As a new tool to probe quantum spacetime in different quantum gravity approaches, we introduce a novel dimensional estimator, the causal spectral dimension, based on the meeting probability of two random walkers, which respect the causal structure of the quantum spacetime. We discuss a causal-set example, where the spectral dimension and the causal spectral dimension differ, due to the existence of a preferred foliation. (paper)

The causal link between energy and output growth: Evidence from Markov switching Granger causality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kandemir Kocaaslan, Ozge

2013-01-01

In this paper we empirically investigate the causal link between energy consumption and economic growth employing a Markov switching Granger causality analysis. We carry out our investigation using annual U.S. real GDP, total final energy consumption and total primary energy consumption data which cover the period between 1968 and 2010. We find that there are significant changes in the causal relation between energy consumption and economic growth over the sample period under investigation. Our results show that total final energy consumption and total primary energy consumption have significant predictive content for real economic activity in the U.S. economy. Furthermore, the causality running from energy consumption to output growth seems to be strongly apparent particularly during the periods of economic downturn and energy crisis. We also document that output growth has predictive power in explaining total energy consumption. Furthermore, the power of output growth in predicting total energy consumption is found to diminish after the mid of 1980s. - Highlights: • Total energy consumption has predictive content for real economic activity. • The causality from energy to output growth is apparent in the periods of recession. • The causality from energy to output growth is strong in the periods of energy crisis. • Output growth has predictive power in explaining total energy consumption. • The power of output growth in explaining energy diminishes after the mid of 1980s

Therapists' causal attributions of clients' problems and selection of intervention strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Royce, W S; Muehlke, C V

1991-04-01

Therapists' choices of intervention strategies are influenced by many factors, including judgments about the bases of clients' problems. To assess the relationships between such causal attributions and the selection of intervention strategies, 196 counselors, psychologists, and social workers responded to the written transcript of a client's interview by answering two questionnaires, a 1982 scale (Causal Dimension Scale by Russell) which measured causal attribution of the client's problem, and another which measured preference for emotional, rational, and active intervention strategies in dealing with the client, based on the 1979 E-R-A taxonomy of Frey and Raming. A significant relationship was found between the two sets of variables, with internal attributions linked to rational intervention strategies and stable attributions linked to active strategies. The results support Halleck's 1978 hypothesis that theories of psychotherapy tie interventions to etiological considerations.

28 CFR 14.4 - Administrative claims; evidence and information to be submitted.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... bearing on either the responsibility of the United States for the death or the damages claimed. (b... submitted. (a) Death. In support of a claim based on death, the claimant may be required to submit the following evidence or information: (1) An authenticated death certificate or other competent evidence...

¿CONFIEREN PODERES CAUSALES LOS UNIVERSALES TRASCENDENTES?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Tomás Alvarado Marambio

2013-11-01

Full Text Available This work discusses the so-called ‘Eleatic’ argument against the existence of transcendent universals, i. e. universals which does not require instantiation for its existence. The Eleatic Principle states that everything produces a difference in the causal powers of something. As transcendent universals seem not to produce such a difference, transcendent universals seem not to exist. The argument depends crucially on the justification and the interpretation of the Eleatic Principle. It is argued, first, that it is not very clear that the principle is justified, and, second, that there are several alternatives for its interpretation, in relation with the different theories one can endorse about modality or causality. Anti-realist theories of modality or causality are not very appropriate for the understanding of what should be a ‘causal power’. Neither does a realist theory of causality conjoined with a combinatorial theory of possible worlds. A ‘causal power’ seems to be better understood in connection with a realist –non-reductionist– theory of causality and a causal theory of modality. Taken in this way the Eleatic Principle, nonetheless, it is argued that transcendent universals do ‘produce’ a difference in causal powers, for every causal connection requires such universals for its existence.

Re-thinking local causality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Friederich, Simon

There is widespread belief in a tension between quantum theory and special relativity, motivated by the idea that quantum theory violates J. S. Bell's criterion of local causality, which is meant to implement the causal structure of relativistic space-time. This paper argues that if one takes the

mediation: R package for causal mediation analysis

OpenAIRE

Tingley, Dustin; Yamamoto, Teppei; Hirose, Kentaro; Keele, Luke; Imai, Kosuke

2012-01-01

In this paper, we describe the R package mediation for conducting causal mediation analysis in applied empirical research. In many scientific disciplines, the goal of researchers is not only estimating causal effects of a treatment but also understanding the process in which the treatment causally affects the outcome. Causal mediation analysis is frequently used to assess potential causal mechanisms. The mediation package implements a comprehensive suite of statistical tools for conducting su...

Causal knowledge and the development of inductive reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Bright, Aimée K; Feeney, Aidan

2014-06-01

We explored the development of sensitivity to causal relations in children's inductive reasoning. Children (5-, 8-, and 12-year-olds) and adults were given trials in which they decided whether a property known to be possessed by members of one category was also possessed by members of (a) a taxonomically related category or (b) a causally related category. The direction of the causal link was either predictive (prey→predator) or diagnostic (predator→prey), and the property that participants reasoned about established either a taxonomic or causal context. There was a causal asymmetry effect across all age groups, with more causal choices when the causal link was predictive than when it was diagnostic. Furthermore, context-sensitive causal reasoning showed a curvilinear development, with causal choices being most frequent for 8-year-olds regardless of context. Causal inductions decreased thereafter because 12-year-olds and adults made more taxonomic choices when reasoning in the taxonomic context. These findings suggest that simple causal relations may often be the default knowledge structure in young children's inductive reasoning, that sensitivity to causal direction is present early on, and that children over-generalize their causal knowledge when reasoning. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Causal Diagrams for Empirical Research

OpenAIRE

Pearl, Judea

1994-01-01

The primary aim of this paper is to show how graphical models can be used as a mathematical language for integrating statistical and subject-matter information. In particular, the paper develops a principled, nonparametric framework for causal inference, in which diagrams are queried to determine if the assumptions available are sufficient for identifiying causal effects from non-experimental data. If so the diagrams can be queried to produce mathematical expressions for causal effects in ter...

Model selection approach suggests causal association between 25-hydroxyvitamin D and colorectal cancer.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lina Zgaga

Full Text Available Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC, but causal relationship has not yet been confirmed. We investigate the direction of causation between vitamin D and CRC by extending the conventional approaches to allow pleiotropic relationships and by explicitly modelling unmeasured confounders.Plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD, genetic variants associated with 25-OHD and CRC, and other relevant information was available for 2645 individuals (1057 CRC cases and 1588 controls and included in the model. We investigate whether 25-OHD is likely to be causally associated with CRC, or vice versa, by selecting the best modelling hypothesis according to Bayesian predictive scores. We examine consistency for a range of prior assumptions.Model comparison showed preference for the causal association between low 25-OHD and CRC over the reverse causal hypothesis. This was confirmed for posterior mean deviances obtained for both models (11.5 natural log units in favour of the causal model, and also for deviance information criteria (DIC computed for a range of prior distributions. Overall, models ignoring hidden confounding or pleiotropy had significantly poorer DIC scores.Results suggest causal association between 25-OHD and colorectal cancer, and support the need for randomised clinical trials for further confirmations.

45 CFR 35.4 - Administrative claims; evidence and information to be submitted.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... bearing on either the responsibility of the United States for the death or the damages claimed. (b... information to be submitted. (a) Death. In support of a claim based on death, the claimant may be required to submit the following evidence or information: (1) An authenticated death certificate or other competent...

Economic Growth, Foreign Direct Investment and CO2 Emissions in China: A Panel Granger Causality Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongfeng Peng

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Using a sample of province-level panel data, this paper investigates the Granger causality associations among economic growth (GDP, foreign direct investment (FDI and CO2 emissions in China. By applying the bootstrap Granger panel causality approach (Kónya, 2006, we consider both cross-sectional dependence and homogeneity of different regions in China. The empirical results support that the causality direction not only works in a single direction either from GDP to FDI (in Yunnan or from FDI to GDP (in Beijing, Neimenggu, Jilin, Shanxi and Gansu, but it also works in both directions (in Henan. Moreover, we document that GDP is Granger-causing CO2 emissions in Neimenggu, Hubei, Guangxi and Gansu while there is bidirectional causality between these two variables in Shanxi. In the end, we identify the unidirectional causality from FDI to CO2 emissions in Beijing, Henan, Guizhou and Shanxi, and the bidirectional causality between FDI and CO2 emissions in Neimenggu.

The selective power of causality on memory errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Marsh, Jessecae K; Kulkofsky, Sarah

2015-01-01

We tested the influence of causal links on the production of memory errors in a misinformation paradigm. Participants studied a set of statements about a person, which were presented as either individual statements or pairs of causally linked statements. Participants were then provided with causally plausible and causally implausible misinformation. We hypothesised that studying information connected with causal links would promote representing information in a more abstract manner. As such, we predicted that causal information would not provide an overall protection against memory errors, but rather would preferentially help in the rejection of misinformation that was causally implausible, given the learned causal links. In two experiments, we measured whether the causal linkage of information would be generally protective against all memory errors or only selectively protective against certain types of memory errors. Causal links helped participants reject implausible memory lures, but did not protect against plausible lures. Our results suggest that causal information may promote an abstract storage of information that helps prevent only specific types of memory errors.

Rate-Agnostic (Causal) Structure Learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Plis, Sergey; Danks, David; Freeman, Cynthia; Calhoun, Vince

2015-12-01

Causal structure learning from time series data is a major scientific challenge. Extant algorithms assume that measurements occur sufficiently quickly; more precisely, they assume approximately equal system and measurement timescales. In many domains, however, measurements occur at a significantly slower rate than the underlying system changes, but the size of the timescale mismatch is often unknown. This paper develops three causal structure learning algorithms, each of which discovers all dynamic causal graphs that explain the observed measurement data, perhaps given undersampling. That is, these algorithms all learn causal structure in a "rate-agnostic" manner: they do not assume any particular relation between the measurement and system timescales. We apply these algorithms to data from simulations to gain insight into the challenge of undersampling.

Re-partnering as a contingency deduction in claims for loss of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... it is taken into account as a proven fact and not as a contingency, according to the theory on compensating advantages. The right to a claim for loss of support is not automatically lost due to the re-partnering. The income and life expectancy of the new partner will be taken into account in calculating the extent of the claim.

Causality and analyticity in optics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nussenzveig, H.M.

In order to provide an overall picture of the broad range of optical phenomena that are directly linked with the concepts of causality and analyticity, the following topics are briefly reviewed, emphasizing recent developments: 1) Derivation of dispersion relations for the optical constants of general linear media from causality. Application to the theory of natural optical activity. 2) Derivation of sum rules for the optical constants from causality and from the short-time response function (asymptotic high-frequency behavior). Average spectral behavior of optical media. Applications. 3) Role of spectral conditions. Analytic properties of coherence functions in quantum optics. Reconstruction theorem.4) Phase retrieval problems. 5) Inverse scattering problems. 6) Solution of nonlinear evolution equations in optics by inverse scattering methods. Application to self-induced transparency. Causality in nonlinear wave propagation. 7) Analytic continuation in frequency and angular momentum. Complex singularities. Resonances and natural-mode expansions. Regge poles. 8) Wigner's causal inequality. Time delay. Spatial displacements in total reflection. 9) Analyticity in diffraction theory. Complex angular momentum theory of Mie scattering. Diffraction as a barrier tunnelling effect. Complex trajectories in optics. (Author) [pt

12 CFR 793.4 - Administrative claims; evidence and information to be submitted.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... evidence or information which may have a bearing on the responsibility of the United States for the death... GOVERNMENT Procedures § 793.4 Administrative claims; evidence and information to be submitted. (a) Death. In support of a claim based on death, the claimant may be required to submit the following evidence or...

mediation: R Package for Causal Mediation Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dustin Tingley

2014-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we describe the R package mediation for conducting causal mediation analysis in applied empirical research. In many scientific disciplines, the goal of researchers is not only estimating causal effects of a treatment but also understanding the process in which the treatment causally affects the outcome. Causal mediation analysis is frequently used to assess potential causal mechanisms. The mediation package implements a comprehensive suite of statistical tools for conducting such an analysis. The package is organized into two distinct approaches. Using the model-based approach, researchers can estimate causal mediation effects and conduct sensitivity analysis under the standard research design. Furthermore, the design-based approach provides several analysis tools that are applicable under different experimental designs. This approach requires weaker assumptions than the model-based approach. We also implement a statistical method for dealing with multiple (causally dependent mediators, which are often encountered in practice. Finally, the package also offers a methodology for assessing causal mediation in the presence of treatment noncompliance, a common problem in randomized trials.

Causal asymmetry across cultures: Assigning causal roles in symmetric physical settings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea eBender

2011-09-01

Full Text Available In the cognitive sciences, causal cognition in the physical domain has featured as a core research topic, but the impact of culture has been rarely ever explored. One case in point for a topic on which this neglect is pronounced is the pervasive tendency of people to consider one of two (equally important entities as more important for bringing about an effect. In order to scrutinize how robust such tendencies are across cultures, we asked German and Tongan participants to assign prime causality in nine symmetric settings. For most settings, strong asymmetries in both cultures were found, but not always in the same direction, depending on the task content. This indicates that causal asymmetries, while indeed being a robust phenomenon across cultures, are also subject to culture-specific concepts. Moreover, the asymmetries were found to be modulated by figure-ground relations, but not by marking agency.

Entanglement, non-Markovianity, and causal non-separability

Science.gov (United States)

Milz, Simon; Pollock, Felix A.; Le, Thao P.; Chiribella, Giulio; Modi, Kavan

2018-03-01

Quantum mechanics, in principle, allows for processes with indefinite causal order. However, most of these causal anomalies have not yet been detected experimentally. We show that every such process can be simulated experimentally by means of non-Markovian dynamics with a measurement on additional degrees of freedom. In detail, we provide an explicit construction to implement arbitrary a causal processes. Furthermore, we give necessary and sufficient conditions for open system dynamics with measurement to yield processes that respect causality locally, and find that tripartite entanglement and nonlocal unitary transformations are crucial requirements for the simulation of causally indefinite processes. These results show a direct connection between three counter-intuitive concepts: entanglement, non-Markovianity, and causal non-separability.

The double-edged sword of genetic accounts of criminality: causal attributions from genetic ascriptions affect legal decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheung, Benjamin Y; Heine, Steven J

2015-12-01

Much debate exists surrounding the applicability of genetic information in the courtroom, making the psychological processes underlying how people consider this information important to explore. This article addresses how people think about different kinds of causal explanations in legal decision-making contexts. Three studies involving a total of 600 Mechanical Turk and university participants found that genetic, versus environmental, explanations of criminal behavior lead people to view the applicability of various defense claims differently, perceive the perpetrator's mental state differently, and draw different causal attributions. Moreover, mediation and path analyses highlight the double-edged nature of genetic attributions-they simultaneously reduce people's perception of the perpetrator's sense of control while increasing people's tendencies to attribute the cause to internal factors and to expect the perpetrator to reoffend. These countervailing relations, in turn, predict sentencing in opposite directions, although no overall differences in sentencing or ultimate verdicts were found. © 2015 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

Does Sufficient Evidence Exist to Support a Causal Association between Vitamin D Status and Cardiovascular Disease Risk? An Assessment Using Hill’s Criteria for Causality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patricia G. Weyland

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OHD levels have been found to be inversely associated with both prevalent and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors; dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. This review looks for evidence of a causal association between low 25(OHD levels and increased CVD risk. We evaluated journal articles in light of Hill’s criteria for causality in a biological system. The results of our assessment are as follows. Strength of association: many randomized controlled trials (RCTs, prospective and cross-sectional studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OHD levels and CVD risk factors. Consistency of observed association: most studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OHD levels and CVD risk factors in various populations, locations and circumstances. Temporality of association: many RCTs and prospective studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OHD levels and CVD risk factors. Biological gradient (dose-response curve: most studies assessing 25(OHD levels and CVD risk found an inverse association exhibiting a linear biological gradient. Plausibility of biology: several plausible cellular-level causative mechanisms and biological pathways may lead from a low 25(OHD level to increased risk for CVD with mediators, such as dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Experimental evidence: some well-designed RCTs found increased CVD risk factors with decreasing 25(OHD levels. Analogy: the association between serum 25(OHD levels and CVD risk is analogous to that between 25(OHD levels and the risk of overall cancer, periodontal disease, multiple sclerosis and breast cancer. Conclusion: all relevant Hill criteria for a causal association in a biological system are satisfied to indicate a low 25(OHD level as a CVD risk factor.

Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Algeria: Cointegration and Causality Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cherfi Souhila

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the energy consumption-growth nexus in Algeria. The causal relationship between the logarithm of per capita energy consumption (LPCEC and the logarithm of per capita GDP (LPCGDP during the 1965-2008 period is examined using the threshold cointegration and Granger causality tests. The estimation results indicate that the LPCEC and LPCGDP for Algeria are non cointegrated and that there is a uni-directional causality running from LPCGDP to LPCEC, but not vice versa. The research results strongly support the neoclassical perspective that energy consumption is not a limiting factor to economic growth in Algeria. Accordingly, an important policy implication resulting from this analysis is that government can pursue the conservation energy policies that aim at curtailing energy use for environmental friendly development purposes without creating severe effects on economic growth. The energy should be efficiently allocated into more productive sectors of the economy.

Should the District Courts Have Jurisdiction Over Pre-Award Contract Claims? A Claim for the Claims Court

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Short, John J

1987-01-01

This thesis briefly examines the jurisdiction of the federal district courts and the United States Court of Claims over pre-award contract claims before the Federal Courts Improvement Act of October 1...

Amodal causal capture in the tunnel effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Bae, Gi Yeul; Flombaum, Jonathan I

2011-01-01

In addition to identifying individual objects in the world, the visual system must also characterize the relationships between objects, for instance when objects occlude one another or cause one another to move. Here we explored the relationship between perceived causality and occlusion. Can one perceive causality in an occluded location? In several experiments, observers judged whether a centrally presented event involved a single object passing behind an occluder, or one object causally launching another (out of view and behind the occluder). With no additional context, the centrally presented event was typically judged as a non-causal pass, even when the occluding and disoccluding objects were different colors--an illusion known as the 'tunnel effect' that results from spatiotemporal continuity. However, when a synchronized context event involved an unambiguous causal launch, participants perceived a causal launch behind the occluder. This percept of an occluded causal interaction could also be driven by grouping and synchrony cues in the absence of any explicitly causal interaction. These results reinforce the hypothesis that causality is an aspect of perception. It is among the interpretations of the world that are independently available to vision when resolving ambiguity, and that the visual system can 'fill in' amodally.

Space-time as a causal set

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bombelli, L.; Lee, J.; Meyer, D.; Sorkin, R.D.

1987-01-01

We propose that space-time at the smallest scales is in reality a causal set: a locally finite set of elements endowed with a partial order corresponding to the macroscopic relation that defines past and future. We explore how a Lorentzian manifold can approximate a causal set, noting in particular that the thereby defined effective dimensionality of a given causal set can vary with length scale. Finally, we speculate briefly on the quantum dynamics of causal sets, indicating why an appropriate choice of action can reproduce general relativity in the classical limit

Reconstructing constructivism: causal models, Bayesian learning mechanisms, and the theory theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Gopnik, Alison; Wellman, Henry M

2012-11-01

We propose a new version of the "theory theory" grounded in the computational framework of probabilistic causal models and Bayesian learning. Probabilistic models allow a constructivist but rigorous and detailed approach to cognitive development. They also explain the learning of both more specific causal hypotheses and more abstract framework theories. We outline the new theoretical ideas, explain the computational framework in an intuitive and nontechnical way, and review an extensive but relatively recent body of empirical results that supports these ideas. These include new studies of the mechanisms of learning. Children infer causal structure from statistical information, through their own actions on the world and through observations of the actions of others. Studies demonstrate these learning mechanisms in children from 16 months to 4 years old and include research on causal statistical learning, informal experimentation through play, and imitation and informal pedagogy. They also include studies of the variability and progressive character of intuitive theory change, particularly theory of mind. These studies investigate both the physical and the psychological and social domains. We conclude with suggestions for further collaborative projects between developmental and computational cognitive scientists.

Verification of causal influences of reasoning skills and epistemology on physics conceptual learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lin Ding

2014-07-01

Full Text Available This study seeks to test the causal influences of reasoning skills and epistemologies on student conceptual learning in physics. A causal model, integrating multiple variables that were investigated separately in the prior literature, is proposed and tested through path analysis. These variables include student preinstructional reasoning skills measured by the Classroom Test of Scientific Reasoning, pre- and postepistemological views measured by the Colorado Learning Attitudes about Science Survey, and pre- and postperformance on Newtonian concepts measured by the Force Concept Inventory. Students from a traditionally taught calculus-based introductory mechanics course at a research university participated in the study. Results largely support the postulated causal model and reveal strong influences of reasoning skills and preinstructional epistemology on student conceptual learning gains. Interestingly enough, postinstructional epistemology does not appear to have a significant influence on student learning gains. Moreover, pre- and postinstructional epistemology, although barely different from each other on average, have little causal connection between them.

Representing Personal Determinants in Causal Structures.

Science.gov (United States)

Bandura, Albert

1984-01-01

Responds to Staddon's critique of the author's earlier article and addresses issues raised by Staddon's (1984) alternative models of causality. The author argues that it is not the formalizability of causal processes that is the issue but whether cognitive determinants of behavior are reducible to past stimulus inputs in causal structures.…

Naturally good: Front-of-package claims as message cues.

Science.gov (United States)

Skubisz, Christine

2017-01-01

Excess bodyweight is a significant public health problem in the United States, increasing the risk of adverse health conditions including hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, stroke, and cancer. Americans are consuming more calories than their bodies need each day and making purchasing decisions using heuristic cues, rather than caloric information. A recent trend in food and beverage labeling is the placement of a natural claim on a product's package. Unfortunately, the United States has not established clear requirements for natural claims and manufacturers are using this term liberally. Using models of information processing as a framework, the goal of this study was to predict the effects of natural claims on message processing and evaluations. It was predicted that natural claims would be perceived as heuristics for healthfulness. A 6 (product) x 2 (claim) experimental design was carried out. Support for the prediction that natural labeled products are evaluated as more healthful was found. Despite the fact that natural products contained the same number of calories as their regular counterparts, participants estimated that natural products contained 18% fewer calories. Implications of these findings for food labeling and public health are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigating the reversed causality of engagement and burnout in job demands-resources theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leon T. de Beer

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Orientation: Reversed causality is an area that has not commanded major attention within the South African context, specifically pertaining to engagement, burnout and job demands resources. Therefore, this necessitated an investigation to elucidate the potential effects. Research purpose: To investigate the reversed causal hypotheses of burnout and engagement in job demands-resources theory over time. Motivation for the study: Organisations and researchers should be made aware of the effects that burnout and engagement could have over time on resources and demands. Research design, approach and method: A longitudinal design was employed. The availability sample (n = 593 included participants from different demographic backgrounds. A survey was used to measure all constructs at both points in time. Structural equation modelling techniques were implemented with a categorical estimator to investigate the proposed hypotheses. Main findings: Burnout was found to have a significant negative longitudinal relationship with colleague support and supervisor support, whilst the negative relationship with supervisor support over time was more prominent. Engagement showed only one significant but small, negative relationship with supervisor support over time. All other relationships were statistically non-significant. Practical/managerial implications: This study makes organisations aware of the relationship between burnout and relationships at work over time. Proactive measures to promote relationships at work, specifically supervisor support, should be considered in addition to combatting burnout itself and promoting engagement. Contribution/value-add: This study provides insights and information on reversed causality, namely, the effects that engagement and burnout can have over time.

Consumers’ Health-Related Motive Orientations and Reactions to Claims about Dietary Calcium

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christine Hoefkens

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Health claims may contribute to better informed and healthier food choices and to improved industrial competitiveness by marketing foods that support healthier lifestyles in line with consumer preferences. With the more stringent European Union regulation of nutrition and health claims, insights into consumers’ health-related goal patterns and their reactions towards such claims are needed to influence the content of lawful claims. This study investigated how consumers’ explicit and implicit health-related motive orientations (HRMOs together with the type of calcium-claim (nutrition claim, health claim and reduction of disease risk claim influence perceived credibility and purchasing intention of calcium-enriched fruit juice. Data were collected in April 2006 through a consumer survey with 341 Belgian adults. The findings indicate that stronger implicit HRMOs (i.e., indirect benefits of calcium for personal health are associated with higher perceived credibility, which is not (yet translated into a higher purchasing intention. Consumers’ explicit HRMOs, which refer to direct benefits or physiological functions of calcium in the body — as legally permitted in current calcium-claims in the EU — do not associate with reactions to the claims. Independently of consumers’ HRMOs, the claim type significantly affects the perceived credibility and purchasing intention of the product. Implications for nutrition policy makers and food industries are discussed.

Repeated Causal Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Hagmayer, York; Meder, Bjorn

2013-01-01

Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in…

Causality in Classical Electrodynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Savage, Craig

2012-01-01

Causality in electrodynamics is a subject of some confusion, especially regarding the application of Faraday's law and the Ampere-Maxwell law. This has led to the suggestion that we should not teach students that electric and magnetic fields can cause each other, but rather focus on charges and currents as the causal agents. In this paper I argue…

Beliefs About the Causal Structure of the Self-Concept Determine Which Changes Disrupt Personal Identity.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Stephanie Y; Urminsky, Oleg; Bartels, Daniel M

2016-10-01

Personal identity is an important determinant of behavior, yet how people mentally represent their self-concepts and their concepts of other people is not well understood. In the current studies, we examined the age-old question of what makes people who they are. We propose a novel approach to identity that suggests that the answer lies in people's beliefs about how the features of identity (e.g., memories, moral qualities, personality traits) are causally related to each other. We examined the impact of the causal centrality of a feature, a key determinant of the extent to which a feature defines a concept, on judgments of identity continuity. We found support for this approach in three experiments using both measured and manipulated causal centrality. For judgments both of one's self and of others, we found that some features are perceived to be more causally central than others and that changes in such causally central features are believed to be more disruptive to identity.

Mendelian randomization studies do not support a causal role for reduced circulating adiponectin levels in insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

H. Yaghootkar (Hanieh); C. Lamina (Claudia); R.A. Scott (Robert); Z. Dastani (Zari); M.-F. Hivert (Marie-France); L.L. Warren (Liling); A. Stancáková (Alena); S.G. Buxbaum (Sarah); L.-P. Lyytikäinen (Leo-Pekka); P. Henneman (Peter); Y. Wu (Ying); C.Y.Y. Cheung (Chloe); J.S. Pankow (James); A.U. Jackson (Anne); S. Gustafsson (Stefan); J.H. Zhao (Jing Hua); C. Ballantyne (Christie); W. Xie (Weijia); R.N. Bergman (Richard); M. Boehnke (Michael); F. El Bouazzaoui (Fatiha); F.S. Collins (Francis); S.H. Dunn (Sandra); J. Dupuis (Josée); N.G. Forouhi (Nita); C.J. Gillson (Christopher); A.T. Hattersley (Andrew); J. Hong (Jaeyoung); M. Kähönen (Mika); J. Kuusisto (Johanna); L. Kedenko (Lyudmyla); F. Kronenberg (Florian); A. Doria (Andrea); T.L. Assimes (Themistocles); E. Ferrannini (Ele); T. Hansen (Torben); K. Hao (Ke); H. Häring (Hans); J.W. Knowles (Joshua); C.M. Lindgren (Cecilia); J.J. Nolan (John); J. Paananen (Jussi); O. Pedersen (Oluf); T. Quertermous (Thomas); U. Smith (Ulf); T. Lehtimäki (Terho); C.-T. Liu (Ching-Ti); R.J.F. Loos (Ruth); M.I. McCarthy (Mark); A.D. Morris (Andrew); R.S. Vasan (Ramachandran Srini); T.D. Spector (Timothy); T.M. Teslovich (Tanya); J. Tuomilehto (Jaakko); J.A.P. Willems van Dijk (Ko); J. Viikari (Jorma); N. Zhu (Na); C. Langenberg (Claudia); E. Ingelsson (Erik); R.K. Semple (Robert); A. Sinaiko (Alan); C.N.A. Palmer (Colin); M. Walker (Mark); K.S.L. Lam (Karen); B. Paulweber (Bernhard); K.L. Mohlke (Karen); C.M. van Duijn (Cornelia); O. Raitakari (Olli); A. Bidulescu (Aurelian); N.J. Wareham (Nick); M. Laakso (Markku); D. Waterworth (Dawn); D.A. Lawlor (Debbie); J.B. Meigs (James); J.B. Richards (Brent); T.M. Frayling (Timothy)

2013-01-01

textabstractAdiponectin is strongly inversely associated with insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes, but its causal role remains controversial. We used a Mendelian randomization approach to test the hypothesis that adiponectin causally influences insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes. We used

An Evaluation of Active Learning Causal Discovery Methods for Reverse-Engineering Local Causal Pathways of Gene Regulation

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Sisi; Kemmeren, Patrick; Aliferis, Constantin F.; Statnikov, Alexander

2016-01-01

Reverse-engineering of causal pathways that implicate diseases and vital cellular functions is a fundamental problem in biomedicine. Discovery of the local causal pathway of a target variable (that consists of its direct causes and direct effects) is essential for effective intervention and can facilitate accurate diagnosis and prognosis. Recent research has provided several active learning methods that can leverage passively observed high-throughput data to draft causal pathways and then refine the inferred relations with a limited number of experiments. The current study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the performance of active learning methods for local causal pathway discovery in real biological data. Specifically, 54 active learning methods/variants from 3 families of algorithms were applied for local causal pathways reconstruction of gene regulation for 5 transcription factors in S. cerevisiae. Four aspects of the methods’ performance were assessed, including adjacency discovery quality, edge orientation accuracy, complete pathway discovery quality, and experimental cost. The results of this study show that some methods provide significant performance benefits over others and therefore should be routinely used for local causal pathway discovery tasks. This study also demonstrates the feasibility of local causal pathway reconstruction in real biological systems with significant quality and low experimental cost. PMID:26939894

Mendelian Randomisation Studies Do Not Support a Causal Role for Reduced Circulating Adiponectin Levels in Insulin Resistance and Type 2 Diabetes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yaghootkar, Hanieh; Lamina, Claudia; Scott, Robert A

2013-01-01

Adiponectin is strongly inversely associated with insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes but its causal role remains controversial. We used a Mendelian randomisation approach to test the hypothesis that adiponectin causally influences insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes. We used genetic varian...

Repair of Partly Misspecified Causal Diagrams.

Science.gov (United States)

Oates, Chris J; Kasza, Jessica; Simpson, Julie A; Forbes, Andrew B

2017-07-01

Errors in causal diagrams elicited from experts can lead to the omission of important confounding variables from adjustment sets and render causal inferences invalid. In this report, a novel method is presented that repairs a misspecified causal diagram through the addition of edges. These edges are determined using a data-driven approach designed to provide improved statistical efficiency relative to de novo structure learning methods. Our main assumption is that the expert is "directionally informed," meaning that "false" edges provided by the expert would not create cycles if added to the "true" causal diagram. The overall procedure is cast as a preprocessing technique that is agnostic to subsequent causal inferences. Results based on simulated data and data derived from an observational cohort illustrate the potential for data-assisted elicitation in epidemiologic applications. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B208.

Causality in variance and the type of traders in crude oil futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhar, Ramaprasad; Hamori, Shigeyuki

2005-01-01

This article examines the causal relationship and, in particular, informational dependence between crude oil futures return and the trading volume using daily data over a ten-year period using a recent econometric methodology. The two-step procedure developed by Cheung and Ng (1996) [Cheung, Y.W., Ng, L.K., 1996. A causality-in-variance test and its applications to financial market prices, Journal of Econometrics 72, 33-48.] is robust to distributional assumption and does not depend on simultaneous modeling of the two variables. We find only causality at higher order lags running from return to volume in the mean as well as in conditional variance. Our result is not in complete agreement with several earlier studies in this area. However, the result does indicate mild support for noise traders' hypothesis in the crude oil futures market. (Author)

Organizational justice and leadership : expanding the causal framework

OpenAIRE

Sajons, Gwendolin Beatriz

2014-01-01

This thesis examines the relationships among managerial justice and employee attitudes, emotions and behaviors to re-conceptualize the traditional causal frameworks of the justice literature. In the first chapter, I propose that distributive fairness perceptions do not unidirectionally affect performance, but that the two are linked reciprocally. Data from two laboratory experiments support this proposition. Chapter 2 builds on this idea to argue that managers use employee performance as a he...

Functional equations with causal operators

CERN Document Server

Corduneanu, C

2003-01-01

Functional equations encompass most of the equations used in applied science and engineering: ordinary differential equations, integral equations of the Volterra type, equations with delayed argument, and integro-differential equations of the Volterra type. The basic theory of functional equations includes functional differential equations with causal operators. Functional Equations with Causal Operators explains the connection between equations with causal operators and the classical types of functional equations encountered by mathematicians and engineers. It details the fundamentals of linear equations and stability theory and provides several applications and examples.

Classical planning and causal implicatures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blackburn, Patrick Rowan; Benotti, Luciana

In this paper we motivate and describe a dialogue manager (called Frolog) which uses classical planning to infer causal implicatures. A causal implicature is a type of Gricean relation implicature, a highly context dependent form of inference. As we shall see, causal implicatures are important...... to generate clarification requests"; as a result we can model task-oriented dialogue as an interactive process locally structured by negotiation of the underlying task. We give several examples of Frolog-human dialog, discuss the limitations imposed by the classical planning paradigm, and indicate...

The case for causal influences of action videogame play upon vision and attention.

Science.gov (United States)

Kristjánsson, Árni

2013-05-01

Over the past decade, exciting findings have surfaced suggesting that routine action videogame play improves attentional and perceptual skills. Apparently, performance during multiple-object tracking, useful-field-of-view tests, and task switching improves, contrast sensitivity and spatial-resolution thresholds decrease, and the attentional blink and backward masking are lessened by short-term training on action videogames. These are remarkable findings showing promise for the training of attention and the treatment of disorders of attentional function. While the findings are interesting, evidence of causal influences of videogame play is not as strong as is often claimed. In many studies, observers with game play experience and those without are tested. Such studies do not address causality, since preexisting differences are not controlled for. Other studies investigate the training of videogame play, with some evidence of training benefits. Methodological shortcomings and potential confounds limit their impact, however, and they have not always been replicated. No longitudinal studies on videogame training exist, but these may be required to provide conclusive answers about any benefits of videogame training and any interaction with preexisting differences. Suggestions for methodological improvement are made here, including recommendations for longitudinal studies. Such studies may become crucial for the field of attentional training to reach its full potential.

The role of health-related claims and symbols in consumer behaviour

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hieke, Sophie; Cascanette, Tamara; Pravst, Igor

2016-01-01

Health claims and symbols are a convenient tool when it comes to the marketing of foods and they should, in theory, support consumers in making informed food choices, ideally in choosing healthier food products. However, not much is known about their actual impact on consumer behaviour. CLYMBOL...... (“The Role of health-related CLaims and sYMBOLs in consumer behaviour”) is an EU-funded project aiming to study how health claims and symbols influence consumer understanding, purchase and consumption behaviour. During a 4-year period, a wide range of research studies have been conducted across Europe......, in order to analyse European consumer behaviour in the context of health claims and symbols. Results of the studies will provide a basis for recommendations for stakeholders such as policy makers, the food industry and consumer and patient organisations....

Causal inference in economics and marketing.

Science.gov (United States)

Varian, Hal R

2016-07-05

This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual-a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference.

Lipoprotein(a) and ischemic heart disease-A causal association? A review

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kamstrup, P.R.

2010-01-01

association of LPA copy number variants, influencing levels of lipoprotein(a), with risk of IHD. In conclusion, results from epidemiologic, in vitro, animal, and genetic epidemiologic studies support a causal association of lipoprotein(a) with risk of IHD, while results from randomized clinical trials...

Interactions of information transfer along separable causal paths

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Peishi; Kumar, Praveen

2018-04-01

Complex systems arise as a result of interdependences between multiple variables, whose causal interactions can be visualized in a time-series graph. Transfer entropy and information partitioning approaches have been used to characterize such dependences. However, these approaches capture net information transfer occurring through a multitude of pathways involved in the interaction and as a result mask our ability to discern the causal interaction within a subgraph of interest through specific pathways. We build on recent developments of momentary information transfer along causal paths proposed by Runge [Phys. Rev. E 92, 062829 (2015), 10.1103/PhysRevE.92.062829] to develop a framework for quantifying information partitioning along separable causal paths. Momentary information transfer along causal paths captures the amount of information transfer between any two variables lagged at two specific points in time. Our approach expands this concept to characterize the causal interaction in terms of synergistic, unique, and redundant information transfer through separable causal paths. Through a graphical model, we analyze the impact of the separable and nonseparable causal paths and the causality structure embedded in the graph as well as the noise effect on information partitioning by using synthetic data generated from two coupled logistic equation models. Our approach can provide a valuable reference for an autonomous information partitioning along separable causal paths which form a causal subgraph influencing a target.

Does Causality Matter More Now? Increase in the Proportion of Causal Language in English Texts.

Science.gov (United States)

Iliev, Rumen; Axelrod, Robert

2016-05-01

The vast majority of the work on culture and cognition has focused on cross-cultural comparisons, largely ignoring the dynamic aspects of culture. In this article, we provide a diachronic analysis of causal cognition over time. We hypothesized that the increased role of education, science, and technology in Western societies should be accompanied by greater attention to causal connections. To test this hypothesis, we compared word frequencies in English texts from different time periods and found an increase in the use of causal language of about 40% over the past two centuries. The observed increase was not attributable to general language effects or to changing semantics of causal words. We also found that there was a consistent difference between the 19th and the 20th centuries, and that the increase happened mainly in the 20th century. © The Author(s) 2016.

Political liberalism and religious claims

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-01

This article gives an overview of 4 important lacunae in political liberalism and identifies, in a preliminary fashion, some trends in the literature that can come in for support in filling these blind spots, which prevent political liberalism from a correct assessment of the diverse nature of religious claims. Political liberalism operates with implicit assumptions about religious actors being either ‘liberal’ or ‘fundamentalist’ and ignores a third, in-between group, namely traditionalist religious actors and their claims. After having explained what makes traditionalist religious actors different from liberal and fundamentalist religious actors, the author develops 4 areas in which political liberalism should be pushed further theoretically in order to correctly theorize the challenge which traditional religious actors pose to liberal democracy. These 4 areas (blind spots) are: (1) the context of translation; (2) the politics of exemptions; (3) the multivocality of theology; and (4) the transnational nature of norm-contestation. PMID:28344375

Causality, spin, and equal-time commutators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdel-Rahman, A.M.

1975-01-01

We study the causality constraints on the structure of the Lorentz-antisymmetric component of the commutator of two conserved isovector currents between fermion states of equal momenta. We discuss the sum rules that follow from causality and scaling, using the recently introduced refined infinite-momentum technique. The complete set of sum rules is found to include the spin-dependent fixed-mass sum rules obtained from light-cone commutators. The causality and scaling restrictions on the structure of the electromagnetic equal-time commutators are discussed, and it is found, in particular, that causality requires the spin-dependent part of the matrix element for the time-space electromagnetic equal-time commutator to vanish identically. It is also shown, in comparison with the electromagnetic case, that the corresponding matrix element for the time-space isovector current equal-time commutator is required, by causality, to have isospin-antisymmetric tensor and scalar operator Schwinger terms

Causal inference, probability theory, and graphical insights.

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, Stuart G

2013-11-10

Causal inference from observational studies is a fundamental topic in biostatistics. The causal graph literature typically views probability theory as insufficient to express causal concepts in observational studies. In contrast, the view here is that probability theory is a desirable and sufficient basis for many topics in causal inference for the following two reasons. First, probability theory is generally more flexible than causal graphs: Besides explaining such causal graph topics as M-bias (adjusting for a collider) and bias amplification and attenuation (when adjusting for instrumental variable), probability theory is also the foundation of the paired availability design for historical controls, which does not fit into a causal graph framework. Second, probability theory is the basis for insightful graphical displays including the BK-Plot for understanding Simpson's paradox with a binary confounder, the BK2-Plot for understanding bias amplification and attenuation in the presence of an unobserved binary confounder, and the PAD-Plot for understanding the principal stratification component of the paired availability design. Published 2013. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Framing and Claiming: How Information-Framing Affects Expected Social Security Claiming Behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Jeffrey R; Kapteyn, Arie; Mitchell, Olivia S

2016-03-01

This paper provides evidence that Social Security benefit claiming decisions are strongly affected by framing and are thus inconsistent with expected utility theory. Using a randomized experiment that controls for both observable and unobservable differences across individuals, we find that the use of a "breakeven analysis" encourages early claiming. Respondents are more likely to delay when later claiming is framed as a gain, and the claiming age is anchored at older ages. Additionally, the financially less literate, individuals with credit card debt, and those with lower earnings are more influenced by framing than others.

SyncClaimService

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Veterans Affairs — Provides various methods to sync Claim related data for NWQ processing. It includes web operations to get Claims, get Unique Contention Classifications, get Unique...

An evaluation of the International Monetary Fund's claims about public health.

Science.gov (United States)

Stuckler, David; Basu, Sanjay; Gilmore, Anna; Batniji, Rajaie; Ooms, Gorik; Marphatia, Akanksha A; Hammonds, Rachel; McKee, Martin

2010-01-01

The International Monetary Fund's recent claims concerning its impact on public health are evaluated against available data. First, the IMF claims that health spending either does not change or increases with IMF-supported programs, but there is substantial evidence to the contrary. Second, the IMF claims to have relaxed strict spending requirements in response to the 2008-9 financial crisis, but there is no evidence supporting this claim, and some limited evidence from the Center for Economic Policy Research contradicting it. Third, the IMF states that wage ceilings on public health are no longer part of its explicit conditionalities to poor countries, as governments can choose how to achieve public spending targets; but in practice, ministers are left with few viable alternatives than to reduce health budgets to achieve specific IMF-mandated targets, so the result effectively preserves former policy. Fourth, the IMF's claim that it has increased aid to poor countries also seems to be contradicted by its policies of diverting aid to reserves, as well as evidence that a very small fraction of the Fund's new lending in response to the financial crisis has reached poor countries. Finally, the IMF's claim that it follows public health standards in tobacco control contrasts with its existing policies, which fail to follow the guidelines recommended by the World Bank and World Health Organization. The authors recommend that the IMF (1) become more transparent in its policies, practices, and data to allow improved independent evaluations of its impact on public health (including Health Impact Assessment) and (2) review considerable public health evidence indicating a negative association between its current policies and public health outcomes.

Causality as a Rigorous Notion and Quantitative Causality Analysis with Time Series

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, X. S.

2017-12-01

Given two time series, can one faithfully tell, in a rigorous and quantitative way, the cause and effect between them? Here we show that this important and challenging question (one of the major challenges in the science of big data), which is of interest in a wide variety of disciplines, has a positive answer. Particularly, for linear systems, the maximal likelihood estimator of the causality from a series X2 to another series X1, written T2→1, turns out to be concise in form: T2→1 = [C11 C12 C2,d1 — C112 C1,d1] / [C112 C22 — C11C122] where Cij (i,j=1,2) is the sample covariance between Xi and Xj, and Ci,dj the covariance between Xi and ΔXj/Δt, the difference approximation of dXj/dt using the Euler forward scheme. An immediate corollary is that causation implies correlation, but not vice versa, resolving the long-standing debate over causation versus correlation. The above formula has been validated with touchstone series purportedly generated with one-way causality that evades the classical approaches such as Granger causality test and transfer entropy analysis. It has also been applied successfully to the investigation of many real problems. Through a simple analysis with the stock series of IBM and GE, an unusually strong one-way causality is identified from the former to the latter in their early era, revealing to us an old story, which has almost faded into oblivion, about "Seven Dwarfs" competing with a "Giant" for the computer market. Another example presented here regards the cause-effect relation between the two climate modes, El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In general, these modes are mutually causal, but the causality is asymmetric. To El Niño, the information flowing from IOD manifests itself as a propagation of uncertainty from the Indian Ocean. In the third example, an unambiguous one-way causality is found between CO2 and the global mean temperature anomaly. While it is confirmed that CO2 indeed drives the recent global warming

K-causality and degenerate spacetimes

Science.gov (United States)

Dowker, H. F.; Garcia, R. S.; Surya, S.

2000-11-01

The causal relation K+ was introduced by Sorkin and Woolgar to extend the standard causal analysis of C2 spacetimes to those that are only C0. Most of their results also hold true in the case of metrics with degeneracies which are C0 but vanish at isolated points. In this paper we seek to examine K+ explicitly in the case of topology-changing `Morse histories' which contain degeneracies. We first demonstrate some interesting features of this relation in globally Lorentzian spacetimes. In particular, we show that K+ is robust and the Hawking and Sachs characterization of causal continuity translates into a natural condition in terms of K+. We then examine K+ in topology-changing Morse spacetimes with the degenerate points excised and then for the Morse histories in which the degenerate points are reinstated. We find further characterizations of causal continuity in these cases.

Causal inference in econometrics

CERN Document Server

Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

2016-01-01

This book is devoted to the analysis of causal inference which is one of the most difficult tasks in data analysis: when two phenomena are observed to be related, it is often difficult to decide whether one of them causally influences the other one, or whether these two phenomena have a common cause. This analysis is the main focus of this volume. To get a good understanding of the causal inference, it is important to have models of economic phenomena which are as accurate as possible. Because of this need, this volume also contains papers that use non-traditional economic models, such as fuzzy models and models obtained by using neural networks and data mining techniques. It also contains papers that apply different econometric models to analyze real-life economic dependencies.

Causal localizations in relativistic quantum mechanics

Science.gov (United States)

Castrigiano, Domenico P. L.; Leiseifer, Andreas D.

2015-07-01

Causal localizations describe the position of quantum systems moving not faster than light. They are constructed for the systems with finite spinor dimension. At the center of interest are the massive relativistic systems. For every positive mass, there is the sequence of Dirac tensor-localizations, which provides a complete set of inequivalent irreducible causal localizations. They obey the principle of special relativity and are fully Poincaré covariant. The boosters are determined by the causal position operator and the other Poincaré generators. The localization with minimal spinor dimension is the Dirac localization. Thus, the Dirac equation is derived here as a mere consequence of the principle of causality. Moreover, the higher tensor-localizations, not known so far, follow from Dirac's localization by a simple construction. The probability of localization for positive energy states results to be described by causal positive operator valued (PO-) localizations, which are the traces of the causal localizations on the subspaces of positive energy. These causal Poincaré covariant PO-localizations for every irreducible massive relativistic system were, all the more, not known before. They are shown to be separated. Hence, the positive energy systems can be localized within every open region by a suitable preparation as accurately as desired. Finally, the attempt is made to provide an interpretation of the PO-localization operators within the frame of conventional quantum mechanics attributing an important role to the negative energy states.

Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

Science.gov (United States)

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

Hierarchical organisation of causal graphs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dziopa, P.

1993-01-01

This paper deals with the design of a supervision system using a hierarchy of models formed by graphs, in which the variables are the nodes and the causal relations between the variables of the arcs. To obtain a representation of the variables evolutions which contains only the relevant features of their real evolutions, the causal relations are completed with qualitative transfer functions (QTFs) which produce roughly the behaviour of the classical transfer functions. Major improvements have been made in the building of the hierarchical organization. First, the basic variables of the uppermost level and the causal relations between them are chosen. The next graph is built by adding intermediary variables to the upper graph. When the undermost graph has been built, the transfer functions parameters corresponding to its causal relations are identified. The second task consists in the upwelling of the information from the undermost graph to the uppermost one. A fusion procedure of the causal relations has been designed to compute the QFTs relevant for each level. This procedure aims to reduce the number of parameters needed to represent an evolution at a high level of abstraction. These techniques have been applied to the hierarchical modelling of nuclear process. (authors). 8 refs., 12 figs

Bi-directional causality in California's electricity and natural-gas markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woo, Chi-Keung; Olson, Arne; Horowitz, Ira; Luk, Stephen

2006-01-01

The Granger instantaneous-causality test is applied to explore the potential causal relationships between wholesale electricity and natural-gas prices in California. The test shows these relationships to be bi-directional, and reveals California's electricity and natural-gas markets to be as inextricably intertwined as casual observation and theoretical considerations would suggest they ought to be. This meshing of markets exacerbated the effects of California's natural-gas crisis on the contemporaneous electricity crisis, while concurrently the electricity crisis may have contributed to the dysfunction in the national-gas market and helped to precipitate the natural-gas crisis. The finding supports an integrated approach, as opposed to a piecemeal approach, for formulating energy policy recommendations, not just in California but in the world at large

Teaching towards historical expertise : Developing students’ ability to reason causally in history

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stoel, G.L.

2017-01-01

Explaining historical events is an important goal in history education, but not much is known about pedagogical approaches to support this reasoning. In this dissertation, we therefore developed and investigated a learning-environment intended to foster students’ ability for causal historical

Legal action against health claims on foods and beverages marketed to youth.

Science.gov (United States)

Rutkow, Lainie; Vernick, Jon S; Edwards, Danielle M; Rodman, Sarah O; Barry, Colleen L

2015-03-01

The prevalence of obesity among US children raises numerous health concerns. One pathway to reduce childhood obesity is by decreasing energy intake through the ingestion of fewer calories. Yet, food and beverage manufacturers often promote energy-dense items for children via varied health claims. Deceptive health claims are prohibited, and may be addressed through litigation or governmental regulatory efforts. While the amount of legal action against these potentially deceptive claims has increased, no comprehensive assessment has been conducted. This article, which analyzes litigation and governmental regulatory activities, considers key factors that may influence decisions to take legal action against potentially deceptive health claims on foods and beverages, including scientific support, forum selection, selection of plaintiffs, and potential public health impact.

Dynamics and causality constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sousa, Manoelito M. de

2001-04-01

The physical meaning and the geometrical interpretation of causality implementation in classical field theories are discussed. Causality in field theory are kinematical constraints dynamically implemented via solutions of the field equation, but in a limit of zero-distance from the field sources part of these constraints carries a dynamical content that explains old problems of classical electrodynamics away with deep implications to the nature of physicals interactions. (author)

Framing and Claiming: How Information-Framing Affects Expected Social Security Claiming Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Jeffrey R.; Kapteyn, Arie; Mitchell, Olivia S.

2017-01-01

This paper provides evidence that Social Security benefit claiming decisions are strongly affected by framing and are thus inconsistent with expected utility theory. Using a randomized experiment that controls for both observable and unobservable differences across individuals, we find that the use of a “breakeven analysis” encourages early claiming. Respondents are more likely to delay when later claiming is framed as a gain, and the claiming age is anchored at older ages. Additionally, the financially less literate, individuals with credit card debt, and those with lower earnings are more influenced by framing than others. PMID:28579641

Expert Causal Reasoning and Explanation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuipers, Benjamin

The relationship between cognitive psychologists and researchers in artificial intelligence carries substantial benefits for both. An ongoing investigation in causal reasoning in medical problem solving systems illustrates this interaction. This paper traces a dialectic of sorts in which three different types of causal resaoning for medical…

Does Portuguese economy support crude oil conservation hypothesis?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz; Pires Manso, José R.

2012-01-01

This paper examines cointegration relationships and Granger causality nexus in a trivariate framework among oil consumption, economic growth and international oil price in Portugal. For this purpose, we employ two Granger causality approaches: the Johansen cointegration test and vector error correction model (VECM) and the Toda–Yamamoto approaches. Cointegration test proves the existence of a long run equilibrium relationship among these variables and VECM and Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality tests indicate that there is bidirectional causality between crude oil consumption and economic growth (feed back hypothesis). Therefore, the Portuguese economy does not support crude oil conservation hypothesis. Consequently, policymakers should consider that implementing oil conservation and environmental policies may negatively impact on the Portuguese economic growth. - Highlights: ► We examine Granger causality among oil consumption, GDP and oil price in Portugal. ► VECM and Toda–Yamamoto tests found bidirectional causality among oil and GDP. ► Portuguese economy does not support the crude oil conservation hypothesis.

Links between causal effects and causal association for surrogacy evaluation in a gaussian setting.

Science.gov (United States)

Conlon, Anna; Taylor, Jeremy; Li, Yun; Diaz-Ordaz, Karla; Elliott, Michael

2017-11-30

Two paradigms for the evaluation of surrogate markers in randomized clinical trials have been proposed: the causal effects paradigm and the causal association paradigm. Each of these paradigms rely on assumptions that must be made to proceed with estimation and to validate a candidate surrogate marker (S) for the true outcome of interest (T). We consider the setting in which S and T are Gaussian and are generated from structural models that include an unobserved confounder. Under the assumed structural models, we relate the quantities used to evaluate surrogacy within both the causal effects and causal association frameworks. We review some of the common assumptions made to aid in estimating these quantities and show that assumptions made within one framework can imply strong assumptions within the alternative framework. We demonstrate that there is a similarity, but not exact correspondence between the quantities used to evaluate surrogacy within each framework, and show that the conditions for identifiability of the surrogacy parameters are different from the conditions, which lead to a correspondence of these quantities. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Non-Gaussian Methods for Causal Structure Learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Shimizu, Shohei

2018-05-22

Causal structure learning is one of the most exciting new topics in the fields of machine learning and statistics. In many empirical sciences including prevention science, the causal mechanisms underlying various phenomena need to be studied. Nevertheless, in many cases, classical methods for causal structure learning are not capable of estimating the causal structure of variables. This is because it explicitly or implicitly assumes Gaussianity of data and typically utilizes only the covariance structure. In many applications, however, non-Gaussian data are often obtained, which means that more information may be contained in the data distribution than the covariance matrix is capable of containing. Thus, many new methods have recently been proposed for using the non-Gaussian structure of data and inferring the causal structure of variables. This paper introduces prevention scientists to such causal structure learning methods, particularly those based on the linear, non-Gaussian, acyclic model known as LiNGAM. These non-Gaussian data analysis tools can fully estimate the underlying causal structures of variables under assumptions even in the presence of unobserved common causes. This feature is in contrast to other approaches. A simulated example is also provided.

Axioms for quantum mechanics: relativistic causality, retrocausality, and the existence of a classical limit

Science.gov (United States)

Rohrlich, Daniel

Y. Aharonov and A. Shimony both conjectured that two axioms - relativistic causality (``no superluminal signalling'') and nonlocality - so nearly contradict each other that only quantum mechanics reconciles them. Can we indeed derive quantum mechanics, at least in part, from these two axioms? No: ``PR-box'' correlations show that quantum correlations are not the most nonlocal correlations consistent with relativistic causality. Here we replace ``nonlocality'' with ``retrocausality'' and supplement the axioms of relativistic causality and retrocausality with a natural and minimal third axiom: the existence of a classical limit, in which macroscopic observables commute. That is, just as quantum mechanics has a classical limit, so must any generalization of quantum mechanics. In this limit, PR-box correlations violaterelativistic causality. Generalized to all stronger-than-quantum bipartite correlations, this result is a derivation of Tsirelson's bound (a theorem of quantum mechanics) from the three axioms of relativistic causality, retrocausality and the existence of a classical limit. Although the derivation does not assume quantum mechanics, it points to the Hilbert space structure that underlies quantum correlations. I thank the John Templeton Foundation (Project ID 43297) and the Israel Science Foundation (Grant No. 1190/13) for support.

Causal beliefs about depression in different cultural groups—what do cognitive psychological theories of causal learning and reasoning predict?

OpenAIRE

Hagmayer, York; Engelmann, Neele

2014-01-01

Cognitive psychological research focuses on causal learning and reasoning while cognitive anthropological and social science research tend to focus on systems of beliefs. Our aim was to explore how these two types of research can inform each other. Cognitive psychological theories (causal model theory and causal Bayes nets) were used to derive predictions for systems of causal beliefs. These predictions were then applied to lay theories of depression as a specific test case. A systematic lite...

Covariation in Natural Causal Induction.

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Cheng, Patricia W.; Novick, Laura R.

1991-01-01

Biases and models usually offered by cognitive and social psychology and by philosophy to explain causal induction are evaluated with respect to focal sets (contextually determined sets of events over which covariation is computed). A probabilistic contrast model is proposed as underlying covariation computation in natural causal induction. (SLD)

Reward-Guided Learning with and without Causal Attribution

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Jocham, Gerhard; Brodersen, Kay H.; Constantinescu, Alexandra O.; Kahn, Martin C.; Ianni, Angela M.; Walton, Mark E.; Rushworth, Matthew F.S.; Behrens, Timothy E.J.

2016-01-01

Summary When an organism receives a reward, it is crucial to know which of many candidate actions caused this reward. However, recent work suggests that learning is possible even when this most fundamental assumption is not met. We used novel reward-guided learning paradigms in two fMRI studies to show that humans deploy separable learning mechanisms that operate in parallel. While behavior was dominated by precise contingent learning, it also revealed hallmarks of noncontingent learning strategies. These learning mechanisms were separable behaviorally and neurally. Lateral orbitofrontal cortex supported contingent learning and reflected contingencies between outcomes and their causal choices. Amygdala responses around reward times related to statistical patterns of learning. Time-based heuristic mechanisms were related to activity in sensorimotor corticostriatal circuitry. Our data point to the existence of several learning mechanisms in the human brain, of which only one relies on applying known rules about the causal structure of the task. PMID:26971947

In defense of causal-formative indicators: A minority report.

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Bollen, Kenneth A; Diamantopoulos, Adamantios

2017-09-01

Causal-formative indicators directly affect their corresponding latent variable. They run counter to the predominant view that indicators depend on latent variables and are thus often controversial. If present, such indicators have serious implications for factor analysis, reliability theory, item response theory, structural equation models, and most measurement approaches that are based on reflective or effect indicators. Psychological Methods has published a number of influential articles on causal and formative indicators as well as launching the first major backlash against them. This article examines 7 common criticisms of these indicators distilled from the literature: (a) A construct measured with "formative" indicators does not exist independently of its indicators; (b) Such indicators are causes rather than measures; (c) They imply multiple dimensions to a construct and this is a liability; (d) They are assumed to be error-free, which is unrealistic; (e) They are inherently subject to interpretational confounding; (f) They fail proportionality constraints; and (g) Their coefficients should be set in advance and not estimated. We summarize each of these criticisms and point out the flaws in the logic and evidence marshaled in their support. The most common problems are not distinguishing between what we call causal-formative and composite-formative indicators, tautological fallacies, and highlighting issues that are common to all indicators, but presenting them as special problems of causal-formative indicators. We conclude that measurement theory needs (a) to incorporate these types of indicators, and (b) to better understand their similarities to and differences from traditional indicators. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Healthfulness and nutritional composition of Canadian prepackaged foods with and without sugar claims.

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Bernstein, Jodi T; Franco-Arellano, Beatriz; Schermel, Alyssa; Labonté, Marie-Ève; L'Abbé, Mary R

2017-11-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate differences in calories, nutrient content, overall healthfulness, and use of sweetener ingredients between products with and without sugar claims. Consumers assume products with sugar claims are healthier and lower in calories. It is therefore important claims be found on comparatively healthier items. This study is a cross-sectional analysis of the University of Toronto's 2013 Food Label Database. Subcategories where at least 5% of products (and n ≥ 5) carried a sugar claim were included (n = 3048). Differences in median calorie content, nutrient content, and overall healthfulness, using the Food Standards Australia/New Zealand Nutrient Profiling Scoring criterion, between products with and without sugar claims, were determined. Proportion of products with and without claims that had excess free sugar levels (≥10% of calories from free sugar) and that contained sweeteners was also determined. Almost half (48%) of products with sugar claims contained excess free sugar, and a greater proportion contained sweeteners than products without such claims (30% vs 5%, χ 2 = 338.6, p contents than products without claims. At the subcategory level, reductions in free sugar contents were not always met with similar reductions in calorie contents. This study highlights concerns with regards to the nutritional composition of products bearing sugar claims. Findings can support educational messaging to assist consumer interpretation of sugar claims and can inform changes in nutrition policies, for example, permitting sugar claims only on products with calorie reductions and without excess free sugar.

Linear and Nonlinear Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: The Case of Mexico 1965–2014

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mario Gómez

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes the causal link between aggregated and disaggregated levels of energy consumption and economic growth in Mexico between 1965 and 2014, with the presence of structural breaks stemming from the series. To that end, unit root with structural breaks, cointegration, and linear and nonlinear causality tests are employed. The results show that there is a long-run relationship between production, capital, labor, and energy, and linear causal links from total and disaggregated energy consumption to economic growth. A nonlinear causality also exists from energy consumption, the transport sector, capital, and labor to output. These results support the growth hypothesis, which maintains that energy is an important input factor for economic activity and that energy conservation policies impact the economic growth in Mexico.

Exploring Individual Differences in Preschoolers' Causal Stance

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Alvarez, Aubry; Booth, Amy E.

2016-01-01

Preschoolers, as a group, are highly attuned to causality, and this attunement is known to facilitate memory, learning, and problem solving. However, recent work reveals substantial individual variability in the strength of children's "causal stance," as demonstrated by their curiosity about and preference for new causal information. In…

Formalizing Probabilistic Safety Claims

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Herencia-Zapana, Heber; Hagen, George E.; Narkawicz, Anthony J.

2011-01-01

A safety claim for a system is a statement that the system, which is subject to hazardous conditions, satisfies a given set of properties. Following work by John Rushby and Bev Littlewood, this paper presents a mathematical framework that can be used to state and formally prove probabilistic safety claims. It also enables hazardous conditions, their uncertainties, and their interactions to be integrated into the safety claim. This framework provides a formal description of the probabilistic composition of an arbitrary number of hazardous conditions and their effects on system behavior. An example is given of a probabilistic safety claim for a conflict detection algorithm for aircraft in a 2D airspace. The motivation for developing this mathematical framework is that it can be used in an automated theorem prover to formally verify safety claims.

"I'm Happy with My Mommy": Low-Income Preschoolers' Causal Attributions for Emotions.

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Curenton, Stephanie M.; Wilson, Melvin N.

2003-01-01

This study examined low-income African American and European American preschoolers' socioemotional causal attributions. Results indicate that younger preschoolers, particularly young African Americans, may need help articulating emotions. Adults can support children's emotional reasoning through scaffolding. (Author)

Health claims in the labelling and marketing of food products:

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Asp, Nils-Georg; Bryngelsson, Susanne

2007-01-01

Since 1990 certain health claims in the labelling and marketing of food products have been allowed in Sweden within the food sector's Code of Practice. The rules were developed in close dialogue with the authorities. The legal basis was a decision by the authorities not to apply the medicinal products’ legislation to “foods normally found on the dinner table” provided the rules defined in the Code were followed. The Code of Practice lists nine well-established diet–health relationships eligible for generic disease risk reduction claims in two steps and general rules regarding nutrient function claims. Since 2001, there has also been the possibility for using “product-specific physiological claims (PFP)”, subject to premarketing evaluation of the scientific dossier supporting the claim. The scientific documentation has been approved for 10 products with PFP, and another 15 products have been found to fulfil the Code's criteria for “low glycaemic index”. In the third edition of the Code, active since 2004, conditions in terms of nutritional composition were set, i.e. “nutrient profiles”, with a general reference to the Swedish National Food Administration's regulation on the use of a particular symbol, i.e. the keyhole symbol. Applying the Swedish Code of practice has provided experience useful in the implementation of the European Regulation on nutrition and health claims made on foods, effective from 2007.

Behavioural Pattern of Causality Parameter of Autoregressive ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this paper, a causal form of Autoregressive Moving Average process, ARMA (p, q) of various orders and behaviour of the causality parameter of ARMA model is investigated. It is deduced that the behaviour of causality parameter ψi depends on positive and negative values of autoregressive parameter φ and moving ...

Tachyons and causal paradoxes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maund, J.B.

1979-01-01

Although the existence of tachyons is not ruled out by special relativity, it appears that causal paradoxes will arise if there are tachyons. The usual solutions to these paradoxes employ some form of the reinterpretation principle. In this paper it is argued first that, the principle is incoherent, second, that even if it is not, some causal paradoxes remain, and third, the most plausible ''solution,'' which appeals to boundary conditions of the universe, will conflict with special relativity

32 CFR 536.77 - Applicable law for claims under the Military Claims Act.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... contributory negligence be interpreted and applied according to the law of the place of the occurrence... 32 National Defense 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Applicable law for claims under the Military... Act § 536.77 Applicable law for claims under the Military Claims Act. (a) General principles—(1) Tort...

Causal Impact of Employee Work Perceptions on the Bottom Line of Organizations.

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Harter, James K; Schmidt, Frank L; Asplund, James W; Killham, Emily A; Agrawal, Sangeeta

2010-07-01

Perceptions of work conditions have proven to be important to the well-being of workers. However, customer loyalty, employee retention, revenue, sales, and profit are essential to the success of any business. It is known that these outcomes are correlated with employee attitudes and perceptions of work conditions, but the research into direction of causality has been inconclusive. Using a massive longitudinal database that included 2,178 business units in 10 large organizations, we found evidence supporting the causal impact of employee perceptions on these bottom-line measures; reverse causality of bottom-line measures on employee perceptions existed but was weaker. Managerial actions and practices can impact employee work conditions and employee perceptions of these conditions, thereby improving key outcomes at the organizational level. Perceptions of specific work conditions that engage employees in their work provide practical guidance in how best to manage people to obtain desired results. © The Author(s) 2010.

Linear causal modeling with structural equations

CERN Document Server

Mulaik, Stanley A

2009-01-01

Emphasizing causation as a functional relationship between variables that describe objects, Linear Causal Modeling with Structural Equations integrates a general philosophical theory of causation with structural equation modeling (SEM) that concerns the special case of linear causal relations. In addition to describing how the functional relation concept may be generalized to treat probabilistic causation, the book reviews historical treatments of causation and explores recent developments in experimental psychology on studies of the perception of causation. It looks at how to perceive causal

Identity, causality, and pronoun ambiguity.

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Sagi, Eyal; Rips, Lance J

2014-10-01

This article looks at the way people determine the antecedent of a pronoun in sentence pairs, such as: Albert invited Ron to dinner. He spent hours cleaning the house. The experiment reported here is motivated by the idea that such judgments depend on reasoning about identity (e.g., the identity of the he who cleaned the house). Because the identity of an individual over time depends on the causal-historical path connecting the stages of the individual, the correct antecedent will also depend on causal connections. The experiment varied how likely it is that the event of the first sentence (e.g., the invitation) would cause the event of the second (the house cleaning) for each of the two individuals (the likelihood that if Albert invited Ron to dinner, this would cause Albert to clean the house, versus cause Ron to clean the house). Decisions about the antecedent followed causal likelihood. A mathematical model of causal identity accounted for most of the key aspects of the data from the individual sentence pairs. Copyright © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

An attempt for unification of microcosmos and mega(macro)cosmos on the base of the order (causality)

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Kartsaklis, Anastassios

1986-05-01

An axiomatic system of causal space and its topological structure is given that is convenient for many kinds of spacetime frame reference. Also presented is a topology of the pure states, according to axiomatic foundation of quantum mechanics by Jauch (1968). Finally, an attempt is made to unify, from a causality point of view, the microcosmos and mega(macro)cosmos supported by the transition probability.

A Causal Theory of Modality

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José Tomás Alvarado

2009-08-01

Full Text Available This work presents a causal conception of metaphysical modality in which a state of affairs is metaphysically possible if and only if it can be caused (in the past, the present or the future by current entities. The conception is contrasted with what is called the “combinatorial” conception of modality, in which everything can co-exist with anything else. This work explains how the notion of ‘causality’ should be construed in the causal theory, what difference exists between modalities thus defined from nomological modality, how accessibility relations between possible worlds should be interpreted, and what is the relation between the causal conception and the necessity of origin.

Causal reasoning with mental models

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Khemlani, Sangeet S.; Barbey, Aron K.; Johnson-Laird, Philip N.

2014-01-01

This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex. PMID:25389398

Causal reasoning with mental models.

Science.gov (United States)

Khemlani, Sangeet S; Barbey, Aron K; Johnson-Laird, Philip N

2014-01-01

This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex.

Causal reasoning with mental models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sangeet eKhemlani

2014-10-01

Full Text Available This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex.

Foundational perspectives on causality in large-scale brain networks

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Mannino, Michael; Bressler, Steven L.

2015-12-01

A profusion of recent work in cognitive neuroscience has been concerned with the endeavor to uncover causal influences in large-scale brain networks. However, despite the fact that many papers give a nod to the important theoretical challenges posed by the concept of causality, this explosion of research has generally not been accompanied by a rigorous conceptual analysis of the nature of causality in the brain. This review provides both a descriptive and prescriptive account of the nature of causality as found within and between large-scale brain networks. In short, it seeks to clarify the concept of causality in large-scale brain networks both philosophically and scientifically. This is accomplished by briefly reviewing the rich philosophical history of work on causality, especially focusing on contributions by David Hume, Immanuel Kant, Bertrand Russell, and Christopher Hitchcock. We go on to discuss the impact that various interpretations of modern physics have had on our understanding of causality. Throughout all this, a central focus is the distinction between theories of deterministic causality (DC), whereby causes uniquely determine their effects, and probabilistic causality (PC), whereby causes change the probability of occurrence of their effects. We argue that, given the topological complexity of its large-scale connectivity, the brain should be considered as a complex system and its causal influences treated as probabilistic in nature. We conclude that PC is well suited for explaining causality in the brain for three reasons: (1) brain causality is often mutual; (2) connectional convergence dictates that only rarely is the activity of one neuronal population uniquely determined by another one; and (3) the causal influences exerted between neuronal populations may not have observable effects. A number of different techniques are currently available to characterize causal influence in the brain. Typically, these techniques quantify the statistical

Causal Modeling of Secondary Science Students' Intentions to Enroll in Physics.

Science.gov (United States)

Crawley, Frank E.; Black, Carolyn B.

1992-01-01

Reports a study using the causal modeling method to verify underlying causes of student interest in enrolling in physics as predicted by the theory of planned behavior. Families were identified as major referents in the social support system for physics enrollment. Course and extracurricular conflicts and fear of failure were primary beliefs…

Who deserves health care? The effects of causal attributions and group cues on public attitudes about responsibility for health care costs.

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Gollust, Sarah E; Lynch, Julia

2011-12-01

This research investigates the impact of cues about ascriptive group characteristics (race, class, gender) and the causes of ill health (health behaviors, inborn biological traits, social systemic factors) on beliefs about who deserves society's help in paying for the costs of medical treatment. Drawing on data from three original vignette experiments embedded in a nationally representative survey of American adults, we find that respondents are reluctant to blame or deny societal support in response to explicit cues about racial attributes--but equally explicit cues about the causal impact of individual behaviors on health have large effects on expressed attitudes. Across all three experiments, a focus on individual behavioral causes of illness is associated with increased support for individual responsibility for health care costs and lower support for government-financed health insurance. Beliefs about social groups and causal attributions are, however, tightly intertwined. We find that when groups suffering ill health are defined in racial, class, or gender terms, Americans differ in their attribution of health disparities to individual behaviors versus biological or systemic factors. Because causal attributions also affect health policy opinions, varying patterns of causal attribution may reinforce group stereotypes and undermine support for universal access to health care.

Ultra-processed family foods in Australia: nutrition claims, health claims and marketing techniques.

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Pulker, Claire Elizabeth; Scott, Jane Anne; Pollard, Christina Mary

2018-01-01

To objectively evaluate voluntary nutrition and health claims and marketing techniques present on packaging of high-market-share ultra-processed foods (UPF) in Australia for their potential impact on public health. Cross-sectional. Packaging information from five high-market-share food manufacturers and one retailer were obtained from supermarket and manufacturers' websites. Ingredients lists for 215 UPF were examined for presence of added sugar. Packaging information was categorised using a taxonomy of nutrition and health information which included nutrition and health claims and five common food marketing techniques. Compliance of statements and claims with the Australia New Zealand Food Standards Code and with Health Star Ratings (HSR) were assessed for all products. Almost all UPF (95 %) contained added sugars described in thirty-four different ways; 55 % of UPF displayed a HSR; 56 % had nutrition claims (18 % were compliant with regulations); 25 % had health claims (79 % were compliant); and 97 % employed common food marketing techniques. Packaging of 47 % of UPF was designed to appeal to children. UPF carried a mean of 1·5 health and nutrition claims (range 0-10) and 2·6 marketing techniques (range 0-5), and 45 % had HSR≤3·0/5·0. Most UPF packaging featured nutrition and health statements or claims despite the high prevalence of added sugars and moderate HSR. The degree of inappropriate or inaccurate statements and claims present is concerning, particularly on packaging designed to appeal to children. Public policies to assist parents to select healthy family foods should address the quality and accuracy of information provided on UPF packaging.

Claims-based definition of death in Japanese claims database: validity and implications.

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Ooba, Nobuhiro; Setoguchi, Soko; Ando, Takashi; Sato, Tsugumichi; Yamaguchi, Takuhiro; Mochizuki, Mayumi; Kubota, Kiyoshi

2013-01-01

For the pending National Claims Database in Japan, researchers will not have access to death information in the enrollment files. We developed and evaluated a claims-based definition of death. We used healthcare claims and enrollment data between January 2005 and August 2009 for 195,193 beneficiaries aged 20 to 74 in 3 private health insurance unions. We developed claims-based definitions of death using discharge or disease status and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). We calculated sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values (PPVs) using the enrollment data as a gold standard in the overall population and subgroups divided by demographic and other factors. We also assessed bias and precision in two example studies where an outcome was death. The definition based on the combination of discharge/disease status and CCI provided moderate sensitivity (around 60%) and high specificity (99.99%) and high PPVs (94.8%). In most subgroups, sensitivity of the preferred definition was also around 60% but varied from 28 to 91%. In an example study comparing death rates between two anticancer drug classes, the claims-based definition provided valid and precise hazard ratios (HRs). In another example study comparing two classes of anti-depressants, the HR with the claims-based definition was biased and had lower precision than that with the gold standard definition. The claims-based definitions of death developed in this study had high specificity and PPVs while sensitivity was around 60%. The definitions will be useful in future studies when used with attention to the possible fluctuation of sensitivity in some subpopulations.

Heterogeneous Causal Effects and Sample Selection Bias

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Breen, Richard; Choi, Seongsoo; Holm, Anders

2015-01-01

The role of education in the process of socioeconomic attainment is a topic of long standing interest to sociologists and economists. Recently there has been growing interest not only in estimating the average causal effect of education on outcomes such as earnings, but also in estimating how...... causal effects might vary over individuals or groups. In this paper we point out one of the under-appreciated hazards of seeking to estimate heterogeneous causal effects: conventional selection bias (that is, selection on baseline differences) can easily be mistaken for heterogeneity of causal effects....... This might lead us to find heterogeneous effects when the true effect is homogenous, or to wrongly estimate not only the magnitude but also the sign of heterogeneous effects. We apply a test for the robustness of heterogeneous causal effects in the face of varying degrees and patterns of selection bias...

Psychogenic Explanations of Physical Illness: Time to Examine the Evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilshire, Carolyn E; Ward, Tony

2016-09-01

In some patients with chronic physical complaints, detailed examination fails to reveal a well-recognized underlying disease process. In this situation, the physician may suspect a psychological cause. In this review, we critically evaluated the evidence for this causal claim, focusing on complaints presenting as neurological disorders. There were four main conclusions. First, patients with these complaints frequently exhibit psychopathology but not consistently more often than patients with a comparable "organic" diagnosis, so a causal role cannot be inferred. Second, these patients report a high incidence of adverse life experiences, but again, there is insufficient evidence to indicate a causal role for any particular type of experience. Third, although psychogenic illnesses are believed to be more responsive to psychological interventions than comparable "organic" illnesses, there is currently no evidence to support this claim. Finally, recent evidence suggests that biological and physical factors play a much greater causal role in these illnesses than previously believed. We conclude that there is currently little evidential support for psychogenic theories of illness in the neurological domain. In future research, researchers need to take a wider view concerning the etiology of these illnesses. © The Author(s) 2016.

Entanglement entropy in causal set theory

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Sorkin, Rafael D.; Yazdi, Yasaman K.

2018-04-01

Entanglement entropy is now widely accepted as having deep connections with quantum gravity. It is therefore desirable to understand it in the context of causal sets, especially since they provide in a natural manner the UV cutoff needed to render entanglement entropy finite. Formulating a notion of entanglement entropy in a causal set is not straightforward because the type of canonical hypersurface-data on which its definition typically relies is not available. Instead, we appeal to the more global expression given in Sorkin (2012 (arXiv:1205.2953)) which, for a Gaussian scalar field, expresses the entropy of a spacetime region in terms of the field’s correlation function within that region (its ‘Wightman function’ W(x, x') ). Carrying this formula over to the causal set, one obtains an entropy which is both finite and of a Lorentz invariant nature. We evaluate this global entropy-expression numerically for certain regions (primarily order-intervals or ‘causal diamonds’) within causal sets of 1  +  1 dimensions. For the causal-set counterpart of the entanglement entropy, we obtain, in the first instance, a result that follows a (spacetime) volume law instead of the expected (spatial) area law. We find, however, that one obtains an area law if one truncates the commutator function (‘Pauli–Jordan operator’) and the Wightman function by projecting out the eigenmodes of the Pauli–Jordan operator whose eigenvalues are too close to zero according to a geometrical criterion which we describe more fully below. In connection with these results and the questions they raise, we also study the ‘entropy of coarse-graining’ generated by thinning out the causal set, and we compare it with what one obtains by similarly thinning out a chain of harmonic oscillators, finding the same, ‘universal’ behaviour in both cases.

Economic growth-electricity consumption causality in 12 European countries: A dynamic panel data approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciarreta, A.; Zarraga, A.

2010-01-01

This paper applies recent panel methodology to investigate the long-run and causal relationship between electricity consumption and real GDP for a set of 12 European countries using annual data for the period 1970-2007. The sample countries have moved faster than other neighboring countries towards the creation of a single electricity market over the past 30 years. Energy prices are also included in the study due to their important role in affecting the above variables, thus avoiding the problem of omitted variable bias. Tests for panel unit roots, cointegration in heterogeneous panels and panel causality are employed in a trivariate VECM estimated by system GMM. The results show evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the three series and a negative short-run and strong causality from electricity consumption to GDP. As expected, there is bidirectional causality between energy prices and GDP and weaker evidence between electricity consumption and energy prices. These results support the policies implemented towards the creation of a common European electricity market.

Claiming health in food products

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lähteenmäki, Liisa

2013-01-01

Health-related information is increasingly used on food products to convey their benefits. Health claims as a subcategory of these messages link the beneficial component, functions or health outcomes with specific products. For consumers, health claims seem to carry the message of increased...... healthiness, but not necessarily making the product more appealing. The wording of the claim seems to have little impact on claim perception, yet the health image of carrier products is important. From consumer-related factors the relevance and attitudes towards functional foods play a role, whereas socio......-demographic factors have only minor impact and the impact seems to be case-dependent. Familiarity with claims and functional foods increase perceived healthiness and acceptance of these products. Apparently consumers make rather rational interpretations of claims and their benefits when forced to assess...

Warranty claim analysis considering human factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu Shaomin

2011-01-01

Warranty claims are not always due to product failures. They can also be caused by two types of human factors. On the one hand, consumers might claim warranty due to misuse and/or failures caused by various human factors. Such claims might account for more than 10% of all reported claims. On the other hand, consumers might not be bothered to claim warranty for failed items that are still under warranty, or they may claim warranty after they have experienced several intermittent failures. These two types of human factors can affect warranty claim costs. However, research in this area has received rather little attention. In this paper, we propose three models to estimate the expected warranty cost when the two types of human factors are included. We consider two types of failures: intermittent and fatal failures, which might result in different claim patterns. Consumers might report claims after a fatal failure has occurred, and upon intermittent failures they might report claims after a number of failures have occurred. Numerical examples are given to validate the results derived.

Representing Causality and Reasoning about Controllability of Multi-level Flow-Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heussen, Kai; Lind, Morten

2010-01-01

Safe operation of complex processes requires that operators maintain situational-awareness even in highly automated environments. Automatic reasoning can support operators as well as the automation system itself to react effectively and appropriately to disturbances. However, knowledge......-based reasoning about control situations remains a challenge due to the entanglement of process and control systems that co-establish the intended causal structure of a process. Due to this entanglement, reasoning about such systems depends on a coherent representation of control and process. This paper explains...... modeling of controlled processes with multilevelflow models and proposes a new framework for modeling causal influence in multilevel flow models on the basis of a flow/potential analogy. The results are illustrated on examples from the domain of electric power systems....

Mathematical implications of Einstein-Weyl causality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borchers, H.J.; Sen, R.N.

2006-01-01

The present work is the first systematic attempt at answering the following fundamental question: what mathematical structures does Einstein-Weyl causality impose on a point-set that has no other previous structure defined on it? The authors propose an axiomatization of Einstein-Weyl causality (inspired by physics), and investigate the topological and uniform structures that it implies. Their final result is that a causal space is densely embedded in one that is locally a differentiable manifold. The mathematical level required of the reader is that of the graduate student in mathematical physics. (orig.)

Causality violation, gravitational shockwaves and UV completion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hollowood, Timothy J.; Shore, Graham M. [Department of Physics, Swansea University,Swansea, SA2 8PP (United Kingdom)

2016-03-18

The effective actions describing the low-energy dynamics of QFTs involving gravity generically exhibit causality violations. These may take the form of superluminal propagation or Shapiro time advances and allow the construction of “time machines”, i.e. spacetimes admitting closed non-spacelike curves. Here, we discuss critically whether such causality violations may be used as a criterion to identify unphysical effective actions or whether, and how, causality problems may be resolved by embedding the action in a fundamental, UV complete QFT. We study in detail the case of photon scattering in an Aichelburg-Sexl gravitational shockwave background and calculate the phase shifts in QED for all energies, demonstrating their smooth interpolation from the causality-violating effective action values at low-energy to their manifestly causal high-energy limits. At low energies, these phase shifts may be interpreted as backwards-in-time coordinate jumps as the photon encounters the shock wavefront, and we illustrate how the resulting causality problems emerge and are resolved in a two-shockwave time machine scenario. The implications of our results for ultra-high (Planck) energy scattering, in which graviton exchange is modelled by the shockwave background, are highlighted.

Introductive remarks on causal inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Silvana A. Romio

2013-05-01

Full Text Available One of the more challenging issues in epidemiological research is being able to provide an unbiased estimate of the causal exposure-disease effect, to assess the possible etiological mechanisms and the implication for public health. A major source of bias is confounding, which can spuriously create or mask the causal relationship. In the last ten years, methodological research has been developed to better de_ne the concept of causation in epidemiology and some important achievements have resulted in new statistical models. In this review, we aim to show how a technique the well known by statisticians, i.e. standardization, can be seen as a method to estimate causal e_ects, equivalent under certain conditions to the inverse probability treatment weight procedure.

Claims-Based Definition of Death in Japanese Claims Database: Validity and Implications

Science.gov (United States)

Ooba, Nobuhiro; Setoguchi, Soko; Ando, Takashi; Sato, Tsugumichi; Yamaguchi, Takuhiro; Mochizuki, Mayumi; Kubota, Kiyoshi

2013-01-01

Background For the pending National Claims Database in Japan, researchers will not have access to death information in the enrollment files. We developed and evaluated a claims-based definition of death. Methodology/Principal Findings We used healthcare claims and enrollment data between January 2005 and August 2009 for 195,193 beneficiaries aged 20 to 74 in 3 private health insurance unions. We developed claims-based definitions of death using discharge or disease status and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). We calculated sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values (PPVs) using the enrollment data as a gold standard in the overall population and subgroups divided by demographic and other factors. We also assessed bias and precision in two example studies where an outcome was death. The definition based on the combination of discharge/disease status and CCI provided moderate sensitivity (around 60%) and high specificity (99.99%) and high PPVs (94.8%). In most subgroups, sensitivity of the preferred definition was also around 60% but varied from 28 to 91%. In an example study comparing death rates between two anticancer drug classes, the claims-based definition provided valid and precise hazard ratios (HRs). In another example study comparing two classes of anti-depressants, the HR with the claims-based definition was biased and had lower precision than that with the gold standard definition. Conclusions/Significance The claims-based definitions of death developed in this study had high specificity and PPVs while sensitivity was around 60%. The definitions will be useful in future studies when used with attention to the possible fluctuation of sensitivity in some subpopulations. PMID:23741526

A Critical Review of the Marketing Claims of Infant Formula Products in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Belamarich, Peter F; Bochner, Risa E; Racine, Andrew D

2016-05-01

A highly competitive infant formula market has resulted in direct-to-consumer marketing intended to promote the sale of modified formulas that claim to ameliorate common infant feeding problems. The claims associated with these marketing campaigns are not evaluated with reference to clinical evidence by the Food and Drug Administration. We aimed to describe the language of claims made on formula labels and compare it with the evidence in systematic reviews. Of the 22 product labels we identified, 13 product labels included claims about colic and gastrointestinal symptoms. There is insufficient evidence to support the claims that removing or reducing lactose, using hydrolyzed or soy protein or adding pre-/probiotics to formula benefits infants with fussiness, gas, or colic yet claims like "soy for fussiness and gas" encourage parents who perceive their infants to be fussy to purchase modified formula. Increased regulation of infant formula claims is warranted. © The Author(s) 2015.

Inference of directed climate networks: role of instability of causality estimation methods

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Hlinka, Jaroslav; Hartman, David; Vejmelka, Martin; Paluš, Milan

2013-01-01

Roč. 15, - (2013), s. 12987 ISSN 1607-7962. [European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2013. 07.04.2013-12.04.2013, Vienna] R&D Projects: GA ČR GCP103/11/J068 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : causality analysis * climate networks Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

Too much sitting and all-cause mortality: is there a causal link?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stuart J. H. Biddle

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Sedentary behaviours (time spent sitting, with low energy expenditure are associated with deleterious health outcomes, including all-cause mortality. Whether this association can be considered causal has yet to be established. Using systematic reviews and primary studies from those reviews, we drew upon Bradford Hill’s criteria to consider the likelihood that sedentary behaviour in epidemiological studies is likely to be causally related to all-cause (premature mortality. Methods Searches for systematic reviews on sedentary behaviours and all-cause mortality yielded 386 records which, when judged against eligibility criteria, left eight reviews (addressing 17 primary studies for analysis. Exposure measures included self-reported total sitting time, TV viewing time, and screen time. Studies included comparisons of a low-sedentary reference group with several higher sedentary categories, or compared the highest versus lowest sedentary behaviour groups. We employed four Bradford Hill criteria: strength of association, consistency, temporality, and dose–response. Evidence supporting causality at the level of each systematic review and primary study was judged using a traffic light system depicting green for causal evidence, amber for mixed or inconclusive evidence, and red for no evidence for causality (either evidence of no effect or no evidence reported. Results The eight systematic reviews showed evidence for consistency (7 green and temporality (6 green, and some evidence for strength of association (4 green. There was no evidence for a dose–response relationship (5 red. Five reviews were rated green overall. Twelve (67 % of the primary studies were rated green, with evidence for strength and temporality. Conclusions There is reasonable evidence for a likely causal relationship between sedentary behaviour and all-cause mortality based on the epidemiological criteria of strength of association, consistency of effect

Causality links among renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth in Africa: evidence from a panel ARDL-PMG approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Attiaoui, Imed; Toumi, Hassen; Ammouri, Bilel; Gargouri, Ilhem

2017-05-01

This research examines the causality (For the remainder of the paper, the notion of causality refers to Granger causality.) links among renewable energy consumption (REC), CO 2 emissions (CE), non-renewable energy consumption (NREC), and economic growth (GDP) using an autoregressive distributed lag model based on the pooled mean group estimation (ARDL-PMG) and applying Granger causality tests for a panel consisting of 22 African countries for the period between 1990 and 2011. There is unidirectional and irreversible short-run causality from CE to GDP. The causal direction between CE and REC is unobservable over the short-term. Moreover, we find unidirectional, short-run causality from REC to GDP. When testing per pair of variables, there are short-run bidirectional causalities among REC, CE, and GDP. However, if we add CE to the variables REC and NREC, the causality to GDP is observable, and causality from the pair REC and NREC to economic growth is neutral. Likewise, if we add NREC to the variables GDP and REC, there is causality. There are bidirectional long-run causalities among REC, CE, and GDP, which supports the feedback assumption. Causality from GDP to REC is not strong for the panel. If we test per pair of variables, the strong causality from GDP and CE to REC is neutral. The long-run PMG estimates show that NREC and gross domestic product increase CE, whereas REC decreases CE.

Quasi-Experimental Designs for Causal Inference

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Yongnam; Steiner, Peter

2016-01-01

When randomized experiments are infeasible, quasi-experimental designs can be exploited to evaluate causal treatment effects. The strongest quasi-experimental designs for causal inference are regression discontinuity designs, instrumental variable designs, matching and propensity score designs, and comparative interrupted time series designs. This…

Articulatory mediation of speech perception: a causal analysis of multi-modal imaging data.

Science.gov (United States)

Gow, David W; Segawa, Jennifer A

2009-02-01

The inherent confound between the organization of articulation and the acoustic-phonetic structure of the speech signal makes it exceptionally difficult to evaluate the competing claims of motor and acoustic-phonetic accounts of how listeners recognize coarticulated speech. Here we use Granger causation analyzes of high spatiotemporal resolution neural activation data derived from the integration of magnetic resonance imaging, magnetoencephalography and electroencephalography, to examine the role of lexical and articulatory mediation in listeners' ability to use phonetic context to compensate for place assimilation. Listeners heard two-word phrases such as pen pad and then saw two pictures, from which they had to select the one that depicted the phrase. Assimilation, lexical competitor environment and the phonological validity of assimilation context were all manipulated. Behavioral data showed an effect of context on the interpretation of assimilated segments. Analysis of 40 Hz gamma phase locking patterns identified a large distributed neural network including 16 distinct regions of interest (ROIs) spanning portions of both hemispheres in the first 200 ms of post-assimilation context. Granger analyzes of individual conditions showed differing patterns of causal interaction between ROIs during this interval, with hypothesized lexical and articulatory structures and pathways driving phonetic activation in the posterior superior temporal gyrus in assimilation conditions, but not in phonetically unambiguous conditions. These results lend strong support for the motor theory of speech perception, and clarify the role of lexical mediation in the phonetic processing of assimilated speech.

Gravity and matter in causal set theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sverdlov, Roman; Bombelli, Luca

2009-01-01

The goal of this paper is to propose an approach to the formulation of dynamics for causal sets and coupled matter fields. We start from the continuum version of the action for a Klein-Gordon field coupled to gravity, and rewrite it first using quantities that have a direct correspondent in the case of a causal set, namely volumes, causal relations and timelike lengths, as variables to describe the geometry. In this step, the local Lagrangian density L(f;x) for a set of fields f is recast into a quasilocal expression L 0 (f;p,q) that depends on pairs of causally related points pprq and is a function of the values of f in the Alexandrov set defined by those points, and whose limit as p and q approach a common point x is L(f;x). We then describe how to discretize L 0 (f;p,q) and use it to define a causal-set-based action.

Causal theory in (2+1)-dimensional Qed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scharf, G.; Wreszinski, W.F.

1994-01-01

The program of constructing the S-matrix by means of causality in quantum field theory goes back to Stueckelberg and Bogoliubov. Epstein and Glaser proposed an axiomatic construct where ultraviolet divergences do not appear, leading directly to the renormalized perturbation series. They have shown that in the causal theory the UV problem is a consequence of incorrect distribution splitting. This paper studies the causal theory in (2+1)D Qed

How multiple causes combine: independence constraints on causal inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Liljeholm, Mimi

2015-01-01

According to the causal power view, two core constraints-that causes occur independently (i.e., no confounding) and influence their effects independently-serve as boundary conditions for causal induction. This study investigated how violations of these constraints modulate uncertainty about the existence and strength of a causal relationship. Participants were presented with pairs of candidate causes that were either confounded or not, and that either interacted or exerted their influences independently. Consistent with the causal power view, uncertainty about the existence and strength of causal relationships was greater when causes were confounded or interacted than when unconfounded and acting independently. An elemental Bayesian causal model captured differences in uncertainty due to confounding but not those due to an interaction. Implications of distinct sources of uncertainty for the selection of contingency information and causal generalization are discussed.

The mistake of the causal relationship

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

О. Д. Комаров

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The article deals with issues of the mistake of the causal relationship. The modern criminal law science approaches to the content of the mistake of the causal relationship and its significance to the qualification of the crime are described. It is proved that in cases of dolus generalis different mental attitude of the guilty person to two separate acts of his conduct exist. Consequently, in mentioned above cases mistake of the causal relationship does not have place. The rules of qualification of the crimes commited with the mistake of causation and in cases of dolus generalis are proposed .

Claims in civil engineering contracts

CERN Document Server

Speirs, N A

1999-01-01

This paper considers claims arising during civil engineering construction contracts. The meaning of the word 'claim' is considered and its possible implications for additional cost and time to completion. The conditions of the construction contract selected will influence the risk apportionment between contractor and client and the price offered by the contractor for the work. Competitive bidding constraints and profit margins in the construction industry, however, may also influence the price offered. This in turn can influence the likelihood of claims arising. The client from his point of view is concerned to complete the work within an agreed time and budget. The circumstances under which claims may arise are reviewed in relation to typical conditions of contract. These circumstances are then related to the CERN LHC civil works. Ways of avoiding claims, where this is possible, are considered. Finally, the means of evaluation of claims and their settlement are considered.

Causal independence between energy consumption and economic growth in Liberia: Evidence from a non-parametric bootstrapped causality test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wesseh, Presley K.; Zoumara, Babette

2012-01-01

This contribution investigates causal interdependence between energy consumption and economic growth in Liberia and proposes application of a bootstrap methodology. To better reflect causality, employment is incorporated as additional variable. The study demonstrates evidence of distinct bidirectional Granger causality between energy consumption and economic growth. Additionally, the results show that employment in Liberia Granger causes economic growth and apply irrespective of the short-run or long-run. Evidence from a Monte Carlo experiment reveals that the asymptotic Granger causality test suffers size distortion problem for Liberian data, suggesting that the bootstrap technique employed in this study is more appropriate. Given the empirical results, implications are that energy expansion policies like energy subsidy or low energy tariff for instance, would be necessary to cope with demand exerted as a result of economic growth in Liberia. Furthermore, Liberia might have the performance of its employment generation on the economy partly determined by adequate energy. Therefore, it seems fully justified that a quick shift towards energy production based on clean energy sources may significantly slow down economic growth in Liberia. Hence, the government’s target to implement a long-term strategy to make Liberia a carbon neutral country, and eventually less carbon dependent by 2050 is understandable. - Highlights: ► Causality between energy consumption and economic growth in Liberia investigated. ► There is bidirectional causality between energy consumption and economic growth. ► Energy expansion policies are necessary to cope with demand from economic growth. ► Asymptotic Granger causality test suffers size distortion problem for Liberian data. ► The bootstrap methodology employed in our study is more appropriate.

Second WCB claims: who is at risk?

Science.gov (United States)

Cherry, Nicola M; Sithole, Fortune; Beach, Jeremy R; Burstyn, Igor

2010-01-01

Many workers with one Workers' Compensation Board (WCB) claim make further claims. If the characteristics of the job, initial injury or worker were predictive of an early second claim, interventions at the time of return to work after the first claim might be effective in reducing the burden of work-related injury. This report explores the characteristic of those who make a second claim. Records of all Alberta WCB claims from January 1, 1995, to December 31, 2004, for individuals 18 to claim, sex and age of claimant, type of injury, type of accident, occupation, industry, an indicator of company size, and industry claim rate were extracted, as well as the date of any second claim. The likelihood of second claim and mean time to second claim were estimated. Multivariate analyses were performed using Cox regression. 1,047,828 claims were identified from 490,230 individuals. Of these, 49.2% had at least two claims. In the multivariate model a reduced time to second claim was associated with male sex, younger age and some types of injury and accident. Machining trades were at highest risk of early second claim (hazard ratio [HR] 2.54 compared with administration), and of the industry sectors manufacturing was at highest risk (HR 1.37 compared with business, personal and professional services). Some caution is needed in interpreting these data as they may be affected by under-reporting and job changes between claims. Nonetheless, they suggest that there remains room for interventions to reduce the considerable differences in risk of a second claim among workers, jobs and industries.

A Bayesian Theory of Sequential Causal Learning and Abstract Transfer.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Hongjing; Rojas, Randall R; Beckers, Tom; Yuille, Alan L

2016-03-01

Two key research issues in the field of causal learning are how people acquire causal knowledge when observing data that are presented sequentially, and the level of abstraction at which learning takes place. Does sequential causal learning solely involve the acquisition of specific cause-effect links, or do learners also acquire knowledge about abstract causal constraints? Recent empirical studies have revealed that experience with one set of causal cues can dramatically alter subsequent learning and performance with entirely different cues, suggesting that learning involves abstract transfer, and such transfer effects involve sequential presentation of distinct sets of causal cues. It has been demonstrated that pre-training (or even post-training) can modulate classic causal learning phenomena such as forward and backward blocking. To account for these effects, we propose a Bayesian theory of sequential causal learning. The theory assumes that humans are able to consider and use several alternative causal generative models, each instantiating a different causal integration rule. Model selection is used to decide which integration rule to use in a given learning environment in order to infer causal knowledge from sequential data. Detailed computer simulations demonstrate that humans rely on the abstract characteristics of outcome variables (e.g., binary vs. continuous) to select a causal integration rule, which in turn alters causal learning in a variety of blocking and overshadowing paradigms. When the nature of the outcome variable is ambiguous, humans select the model that yields the best fit with the recent environment, and then apply it to subsequent learning tasks. Based on sequential patterns of cue-outcome co-occurrence, the theory can account for a range of phenomena in sequential causal learning, including various blocking effects, primacy effects in some experimental conditions, and apparently abstract transfer of causal knowledge. Copyright © 2015

Workers Compensation Claim Data -

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Transportation — This data set contains DOT employee workers compensation claim data for current and past DOT employees. Types of data include claim data consisting of PII data (SSN,...

32 CFR 842.110 - Claims not payable.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

...) Claims for a maritime occurrence covered under U.S. admiralty laws. (o) Claims for: (1) Any tax or... International Agreements Claims Act. (4) The Air Force Admiralty Claims Act and the Admiralty Extensions Act. (5...) Claims from the combat activities of the armed forces during war or armed conflict. (c) Claims for...

RG flow and thermodynamics of causal horizons in higher-derivative AdS gravity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banerjee, Shamik; Bhattacharyya, Arpan

2016-01-01

In http://arxiv.org/abs/1508.01343 [hep-th], one of the authors proposed that in AdS/CFT the gravity dual of the boundary c-theorem is the second law of thermodynamics satisfied by causal horizons in AdS and this was verified for Einstein gravity in the bulk. In this paper we verify this for higher derivative theories. We pick up theories for which an entropy expression satisfying the second law exists and show that the entropy density evaluated on the causal horizon in a RG flow geometry is a holographic c-function. We also prove that given a theory of gravity described by a local covariant action in the bulk a sufficient condition to ensure holographic c-theorem is that the second law of causal horizon thermodynamics be satisfied by the theory. This allows us to explicitly construct holographic c-function in a theory where there is curvature coupling between gravity and matter and standard null energy condition cannot be defined although second law is known to hold. Based on the duality between c-theorem and the second law of causal horizon thermodynamics proposed in http://arxiv.org/abs/1508.01343 [hep-th] and the supporting calculations of this paper we conjecture that every Unitary higher derivative theory of gravity in AdS satisfies the second law of causal horizon thermodynamics. If this is not true then c-theorem will be violated in a unitary Lorentz invariant field theory.

Consciousness and the "Causal Paradox"

OpenAIRE

Velmans, Max

1996-01-01

Viewed from a first-person perspective consciousness appears to be necessary for complex, novel human activity - but viewed from a third-person perspective consciousness appears to play no role in the activity of brains, producing a "causal paradox". To resolve this paradox one needs to distinguish consciousness of processing from consciousness accompanying processing or causing processing. Accounts of consciousness/brain causal interactions switch between first- and third-person perspectives...

ICSNPathway: identify candidate causal SNPs and pathways from genome-wide association study by one analytical framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Kunlin; Chang, Suhua; Cui, Sijia; Guo, Liyuan; Zhang, Liuyan; Wang, Jing

2011-07-01

Genome-wide association study (GWAS) is widely utilized to identify genes involved in human complex disease or some other trait. One key challenge for GWAS data interpretation is to identify causal SNPs and provide profound evidence on how they affect the trait. Currently, researches are focusing on identification of candidate causal variants from the most significant SNPs of GWAS, while there is lack of support on biological mechanisms as represented by pathways. Although pathway-based analysis (PBA) has been designed to identify disease-related pathways by analyzing the full list of SNPs from GWAS, it does not emphasize on interpreting causal SNPs. To our knowledge, so far there is no web server available to solve the challenge for GWAS data interpretation within one analytical framework. ICSNPathway is developed to identify candidate causal SNPs and their corresponding candidate causal pathways from GWAS by integrating linkage disequilibrium (LD) analysis, functional SNP annotation and PBA. ICSNPathway provides a feasible solution to bridge the gap between GWAS and disease mechanism study by generating hypothesis of SNP → gene → pathway(s). The ICSNPathway server is freely available at http://icsnpathway.psych.ac.cn/.

IBO Claim Taking Project

Data.gov (United States)

Social Security Administration — IBO manually tracks all Canadian Claims and DSU claims via this report. It also provides a summary for each region and office of origin that the DSU works with. This...

Predicting workers' compensation claims and disciplinary actions using SecureFit®: Further support for integrative models of workplace safety.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connell, Matthew; Delgado, Kristin; Lawrence, Amie; Kung, Mavis; Tristan, Esteban

2017-06-01

A growing body of applied research has identified certain psychological traits that are predictive of worker safety. However, most of these studies suffer from an overreliance on common method bias caused by self-report measures of both: (a) personal factors such as personality traits; and (b) outcomes such as safety behaviors and injuries. This study utilized archival data from 796 employees at a large U.S. automobile manufacturer. Data were gathered on a pre-employment assessment, SecureFit®, that measured key personality characteristics such as conscientiousness, locus of control, and risk taking. In addition, objective measures of workers' compensation claims and disciplinary actions were also gathered. The results indicated that disciplinary actions and workers' compensation claims were strongly correlated. It also demonstrated that the pre-employment assessment was able to predict both disciplinary actions and workers' compensation claims up to 12months in the future. Screening out just 8% of the applicant sample using the assessment would have resulted in a 35% reduction in disciplinary actions and 46% in workers' compensation claims, respectively. The study found a very strong relationship between counterproductive work behaviors (CWBs), such as not following rules, and workers' compensation claims. It also found a strong relationship between a combination of personality traits that have been shown to be associated with both variables, although the current study was able to demonstrate that relationship with objective measure of both variables. Individuals who receive disciplinary actions for things such as not following rules, not coming to work on time, etc. are significantly more likely to also be involved in serious safety incidents, and vice versa. Identifying those individuals early on in the hiring process and screening them out can significantly reduce the number of CWBs as well as workers' compensation claims. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and

Causal inference in biology networks with integrated belief propagation.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Rui; Karr, Jonathan R; Schadt, Eric E

2015-01-01

Inferring causal relationships among molecular and higher order phenotypes is a critical step in elucidating the complexity of living systems. Here we propose a novel method for inferring causality that is no longer constrained by the conditional dependency arguments that limit the ability of statistical causal inference methods to resolve causal relationships within sets of graphical models that are Markov equivalent. Our method utilizes Bayesian belief propagation to infer the responses of perturbation events on molecular traits given a hypothesized graph structure. A distance measure between the inferred response distribution and the observed data is defined to assess the 'fitness' of the hypothesized causal relationships. To test our algorithm, we infer causal relationships within equivalence classes of gene networks in which the form of the functional interactions that are possible are assumed to be nonlinear, given synthetic microarray and RNA sequencing data. We also apply our method to infer causality in real metabolic network with v-structure and feedback loop. We show that our method can recapitulate the causal structure and recover the feedback loop only from steady-state data which conventional method cannot.

Medicaid Drug Claims Statistics

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U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Medicaid Drug Claims Statistics CD is a useful tool that conveniently breaks up Medicaid claim counts and separates them by quarter and includes an annual count.

A general, multivariate definition of causal effects in epidemiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Flanders, W Dana; Klein, Mitchel

2015-07-01

Population causal effects are often defined as contrasts of average individual-level counterfactual outcomes, comparing different exposure levels. Common examples include causal risk difference and risk ratios. These and most other examples emphasize effects on disease onset, a reflection of the usual epidemiological interest in disease occurrence. Exposure effects on other health characteristics, such as prevalence or conditional risk of a particular disability, can be important as well, but contrasts involving these other measures may often be dismissed as non-causal. For example, an observed prevalence ratio might often viewed as an estimator of a causal incidence ratio and hence subject to bias. In this manuscript, we provide and evaluate a definition of causal effects that generalizes those previously available. A key part of the generalization is that contrasts used in the definition can involve multivariate, counterfactual outcomes, rather than only univariate outcomes. An important consequence of our generalization is that, using it, one can properly define causal effects based on a wide variety of additional measures. Examples include causal prevalence ratios and differences and causal conditional risk ratios and differences. We illustrate how these additional measures can be useful, natural, easily estimated, and of public health importance. Furthermore, we discuss conditions for valid estimation of each type of causal effect, and how improper interpretation or inferences for the wrong target population can be sources of bias.

An Individual Claims History Simulation Machine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Gabrielli

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of this project is to develop a stochastic simulation machine that generates individual claims histories of non-life insurance claims. This simulation machine is based on neural networks to incorporate individual claims feature information. We provide a fully calibrated stochastic scenario generator that is based on real non-life insurance data. This stochastic simulation machine allows everyone to simulate their own synthetic insurance portfolio of individual claims histories and back-test thier preferred claims reserving method.

Information causality from an entropic and a probabilistic perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Al-Safi, Sabri W.; Short, Anthony J.

2011-01-01

The information causality principle is a generalization of the no-signaling principle which implies some of the known restrictions on quantum correlations. But despite its clear physical motivation, information causality is formulated in terms of a rather specialized game and figure of merit. We explore different perspectives on information causality, discussing the probability of success as the figure of merit, a relation between information causality and the nonlocal ''inner-product game,'' and the derivation of a quadratic bound for these games. We then examine an entropic formulation of information causality with which one can obtain the same results, arguably in a simpler fashion.

The space between: land claims and the law in Indonesia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bakker, L.; Moniaga, S.

2010-01-01

In this article we look at rights discourses and law as an arena of struggle in which local people attempt to gain and secure access to localities of value. Following administrative decentralisation in 1999, throughout Indonesia, individuals and communities lodged land claims. To support these

Causal Mediation Analysis: Warning! Assumptions Ahead

Science.gov (United States)

Keele, Luke

2015-01-01

In policy evaluations, interest may focus on why a particular treatment works. One tool for understanding why treatments work is causal mediation analysis. In this essay, I focus on the assumptions needed to estimate mediation effects. I show that there is no "gold standard" method for the identification of causal mediation effects. In…

From patterns to causal understanding: Structural equation modeling (SEM) in soil ecology

Science.gov (United States)

Eisenhauer, Nico; Powell, Jeff R; Grace, James B.; Bowker, Matthew A.

2015-01-01

In this perspectives paper we highlight a heretofore underused statistical method in soil ecological research, structural equation modeling (SEM). SEM is commonly used in the general ecological literature to develop causal understanding from observational data, but has been more slowly adopted by soil ecologists. We provide some basic information on the many advantages and possibilities associated with using SEM and provide some examples of how SEM can be used by soil ecologists to shift focus from describing patterns to developing causal understanding and inspiring new types of experimental tests. SEM is a promising tool to aid the growth of soil ecology as a discipline, particularly by supporting research that is increasingly hypothesis-driven and interdisciplinary, thus shining light into the black box of interactions belowground.

How to Be Causal: Time, Spacetime and Spectra

Science.gov (United States)

Kinsler, Paul

2011-01-01

I explain a simple definition of causality in widespread use, and indicate how it links to the Kramers-Kronig relations. The specification of causality in terms of temporal differential equations then shows us the way to write down dynamical models so that their causal nature "in the sense used here" should be obvious to all. To extend existing…

37 CFR 360.25 - Copies of claims.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Section 360.25 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights COPYRIGHT ROYALTY BOARD, LIBRARY OF CONGRESS SUBMISSION OF ROYALTY CLAIMS FILING OF CLAIMS TO ROYALTY FEES COLLECTED UNDER COMPULSORY LICENSE Digital Audio Recording Devices and Media Royalty Claims § 360.25 Copies of claims. A claimant shall, for each claim...

32 CFR 842.94 - Assertable claims.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

..., against a tort-feasor when: (a) Damage results from negligence and the claim is for: (1) More than $100... ADMINISTRATIVE CLAIMS Property Damage Tort Claims in Favor of the United States (31 U.S.C. 3701, 3711-3719) § 842.... (The two claims should be consolidated and processed under subpart N). (d) The Tort-feasor or his...

Investigating causal associations between use of nicotine, alcohol, caffeine and cannabis: a two-sample bidirectional Mendelian randomization study.

Science.gov (United States)

Verweij, Karin J H; Treur, Jorien L; Vink, Jacqueline M

2018-07-01

Epidemiological studies consistently show co-occurrence of use of different addictive substances. Whether these associations are causal or due to overlapping underlying influences remains an important question in addiction research. Methodological advances have made it possible to use published genetic associations to infer causal relationships between phenotypes. In this exploratory study, we used Mendelian randomization (MR) to examine the causality of well-established associations between nicotine, alcohol, caffeine and cannabis use. Two-sample MR was employed to estimate bidirectional causal effects between four addictive substances: nicotine (smoking initiation and cigarettes smoked per day), caffeine (cups of coffee per day), alcohol (units per week) and cannabis (initiation). Based on existing genome-wide association results we selected genetic variants associated with the exposure measure as an instrument to estimate causal effects. Where possible we applied sensitivity analyses (MR-Egger and weighted median) more robust to horizontal pleiotropy. Most MR tests did not reveal causal associations. There was some weak evidence for a causal positive effect of genetically instrumented alcohol use on smoking initiation and of cigarettes per day on caffeine use, but these were not supported by the sensitivity analyses. There was also some suggestive evidence for a positive effect of alcohol use on caffeine use (only with MR-Egger) and smoking initiation on cannabis initiation (only with weighted median). None of the suggestive causal associations survived corrections for multiple testing. Two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses found little evidence for causal relationships between nicotine, alcohol, caffeine and cannabis use. © 2018 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Granger causality estimate of information flow in temperature fields is consistent with wind direction

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Jajcay, Nikola; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Hartman, David; Paluš, Milan

2014-01-01

Roč. 16, - (2014), EGU2014-12768 ISSN 1607-7962. [EGU General Assembly /11./. 27.04.2014-02.05.2014, Vienna] Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : Granger causality * climate * information flow * surface air temperature * wind Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

Claims in vapour device (e-cigarette) regulation: A Narrative Policy Framework analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Leary, Renée; Borland, Ron; Stockwell, Tim; MacDonald, Marjorie

2017-06-01

The electronic cigarette or e-cigarette (vapour device) is a consumer product undergoing rapid growth, and governments have been adopting regulations on the sale of the devices and their nicotine liquids. Competing claims about vapour devices have ignited a contentious debate in the public health community. What claims have been taken up in the state arena, and how have they possibly influenced regulatory outcomes? This study utilized Narrative Policy Framework to analyze the claims made about vapour devices in legislation recommendation reports from Queensland Australia, Canada, and the European Union, and the 2016 deeming rule legislation from the United States, and examined the claims and the regulatory outcomes in these jurisdictions. The vast majority of claims in the policy documents represented vapour devices as a threat: an unsafe product harming the health of vapour device users, a gateway product promoting youth tobacco uptake, and a quasi-tobacco product impeding tobacco control. The opportunity for vapour devices to promote cessation or reduce exposure to toxins was very rarely presented, and these positive claims were not discussed at all in two of the four documents studied. The dominant claims of vapour devices as a public health threat have supported regulations that have limited their potential as a harm reduction strategy. Future policy debates should evaluate the opportunities for vapour devices to decrease the health and social burdens of the tobacco epidemic. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

BOLD Granger causality reflects vascular anatomy.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J Taylor Webb

Full Text Available A number of studies have tried to exploit subtle phase differences in BOLD time series to resolve the order of sequential activation of brain regions, or more generally the ability of signal in one region to predict subsequent signal in another region. More recently, such lag-based measures have been applied to investigate directed functional connectivity, although this application has been controversial. We attempted to use large publicly available datasets (FCON 1000, ADHD 200, Human Connectome Project to determine whether consistent spatial patterns of Granger Causality are observed in typical fMRI data. For BOLD datasets from 1,240 typically developing subjects ages 7-40, we measured Granger causality between time series for every pair of 7,266 spherical ROIs covering the gray matter and 264 seed ROIs at hubs of the brain's functional network architecture. Granger causality estimates were strongly reproducible for connections in a test and replication sample (n=620 subjects for each group, as well as in data from a single subject scanned repeatedly, both during resting and passive video viewing. The same effect was even stronger in high temporal resolution fMRI data from the Human Connectome Project, and was observed independently in data collected during performance of 7 task paradigms. The spatial distribution of Granger causality reflected vascular anatomy with a progression from Granger causality sources, in Circle of Willis arterial inflow distributions, to sinks, near large venous vascular structures such as dural venous sinuses and at the periphery of the brain. Attempts to resolve BOLD phase differences with Granger causality should consider the possibility of reproducible vascular confounds, a problem that is independent of the known regional variability of the hemodynamic response.

The causal structure of utility conditionals.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonnefon, Jean-François; Sloman, Steven A

2013-01-01

The psychology of reasoning is increasingly considering agents' values and preferences, achieving greater integration with judgment and decision making, social cognition, and moral reasoning. Some of this research investigates utility conditionals, ''if p then q'' statements where the realization of p or q or both is valued by some agents. Various approaches to utility conditionals share the assumption that reasoners make inferences from utility conditionals based on the comparison between the utility of p and the expected utility of q. This article introduces a new parameter in this analysis, the underlying causal structure of the conditional. Four experiments showed that causal structure moderated utility-informed conditional reasoning. These inferences were strongly invited when the underlying structure of the conditional was causal, and significantly less so when the underlying structure of the conditional was diagnostic. This asymmetry was only observed for conditionals in which the utility of q was clear, and disappeared when the utility of q was unclear. Thus, an adequate account of utility-informed inferences conditional reasoning requires three components: utility, probability, and causal structure. Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Entanglement, holography and causal diamonds

Science.gov (United States)

de Boer, Jan; Haehl, Felix M.; Heller, Michal P.; Myers, Robert C.

2016-08-01

We argue that the degrees of freedom in a d-dimensional CFT can be reorganized in an insightful way by studying observables on the moduli space of causal diamonds (or equivalently, the space of pairs of timelike separated points). This 2 d-dimensional space naturally captures some of the fundamental nonlocality and causal structure inherent in the entanglement of CFT states. For any primary CFT operator, we construct an observable on this space, which is defined by smearing the associated one-point function over causal diamonds. Known examples of such quantities are the entanglement entropy of vacuum excitations and its higher spin generalizations. We show that in holographic CFTs, these observables are given by suitably defined integrals of dual bulk fields over the corresponding Ryu-Takayanagi minimal surfaces. Furthermore, we explain connections to the operator product expansion and the first law of entanglemententropy from this unifying point of view. We demonstrate that for small perturbations of the vacuum, our observables obey linear two-derivative equations of motion on the space of causal diamonds. In two dimensions, the latter is given by a product of two copies of a two-dimensional de Sitter space. For a class of universal states, we show that the entanglement entropy and its spin-three generalization obey nonlinear equations of motion with local interactions on this moduli space, which can be identified with Liouville and Toda equations, respectively. This suggests the possibility of extending the definition of our new observables beyond the linear level more generally and in such a way that they give rise to new dynamically interacting theories on the moduli space of causal diamonds. Various challenges one has to face in order to implement this idea are discussed.

Entanglement, holography and causal diamonds

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boer, Jan de [Institute of Physics, Universiteit van Amsterdam,Science Park 904, 1090 GL Amsterdam (Netherlands); Haehl, Felix M. [Centre for Particle Theory & Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University,South Road, Durham DH1 3LE (United Kingdom); Heller, Michal P.; Myers, Robert C. [Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics,31 Caroline Street North, Waterloo, Ontario N2L 2Y5 (Canada)

2016-08-29

We argue that the degrees of freedom in a d-dimensional CFT can be re-organized in an insightful way by studying observables on the moduli space of causal diamonds (or equivalently, the space of pairs of timelike separated points). This 2d-dimensional space naturally captures some of the fundamental nonlocality and causal structure inherent in the entanglement of CFT states. For any primary CFT operator, we construct an observable on this space, which is defined by smearing the associated one-point function over causal diamonds. Known examples of such quantities are the entanglement entropy of vacuum excitations and its higher spin generalizations. We show that in holographic CFTs, these observables are given by suitably defined integrals of dual bulk fields over the corresponding Ryu-Takayanagi minimal surfaces. Furthermore, we explain connections to the operator product expansion and the first law of entanglement entropy from this unifying point of view. We demonstrate that for small perturbations of the vacuum, our observables obey linear two-derivative equations of motion on the space of causal diamonds. In two dimensions, the latter is given by a product of two copies of a two-dimensional de Sitter space. For a class of universal states, we show that the entanglement entropy and its spin-three generalization obey nonlinear equations of motion with local interactions on this moduli space, which can be identified with Liouville and Toda equations, respectively. This suggests the possibility of extending the definition of our new observables beyond the linear level more generally and in such a way that they give rise to new dynamically interacting theories on the moduli space of causal diamonds. Various challenges one has to face in order to implement this idea are discussed.

Detectability of Granger causality for subsampled continuous-time neurophysiological processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Barnett, Lionel; Seth, Anil K

2017-01-01

Granger causality is well established within the neurosciences for inference of directed functional connectivity from neurophysiological data. These data usually consist of time series which subsample a continuous-time biophysiological process. While it is well known that subsampling can lead to imputation of spurious causal connections where none exist, less is known about the effects of subsampling on the ability to reliably detect causal connections which do exist. We present a theoretical analysis of the effects of subsampling on Granger-causal inference. Neurophysiological processes typically feature signal propagation delays on multiple time scales; accordingly, we base our analysis on a distributed-lag, continuous-time stochastic model, and consider Granger causality in continuous time at finite prediction horizons. Via exact analytical solutions, we identify relationships among sampling frequency, underlying causal time scales and detectability of causalities. We reveal complex interactions between the time scale(s) of neural signal propagation and sampling frequency. We demonstrate that detectability decays exponentially as the sample time interval increases beyond causal delay times, identify detectability "black spots" and "sweet spots", and show that downsampling may potentially improve detectability. We also demonstrate that the invariance of Granger causality under causal, invertible filtering fails at finite prediction horizons, with particular implications for inference of Granger causality from fMRI data. Our analysis emphasises that sampling rates for causal analysis of neurophysiological time series should be informed by domain-specific time scales, and that state-space modelling should be preferred to purely autoregressive modelling. On the basis of a very general model that captures the structure of neurophysiological processes, we are able to help identify confounds, and offer practical insights, for successful detection of causal connectivity

Dual Causality and the Autonomy of Biology.

Science.gov (United States)

Bock, Walter J

2017-03-01

Ernst Mayr's concept of dual causality in biology with the two forms of causes (proximate and ultimate) continues to provide an essential foundation for the philosophy of biology. They are equivalent to functional (=proximate) and evolutionary (=ultimate) causes with both required for full biological explanations. The natural sciences can be classified into nomological, historical nomological and historical dual causality, the last including only biology. Because evolutionary causality is unique to biology and must be included for all complete biological explanations, biology is autonomous from the physical sciences.

Can chance cause cancer? A causal consideration.

Science.gov (United States)

Stensrud, Mats Julius; Strohmaier, Susanne; Valberg, Morten; Aalen, Odd Olai

2017-04-01

The role of randomness, environment and genetics in cancer development is debated. We approach the discussion by using the potential outcomes framework for causal inference. By briefly considering the underlying assumptions, we suggest that the antagonising views arise due to estimation of substantially different causal effects. These effects may be hard to interpret, and the results cannot be immediately compared. Indeed, it is not clear whether it is possible to define a causal effect of chance at all. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Causal Association of Overall Obesity and Abdominal Obesity with Type 2 Diabetes: A Mendelian Randomization Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tao; Zhang, Rong; Ma, Xiaojing; Wang, Shiyun; He, Zhen; Huang, Yeping; Xu, Bo; Li, Yangyang; Zhang, Hong; Jiang, Feng; Bao, Yuqian; Hu, Cheng; Jia, Weiping

2018-05-01

This study aimed to compare the causal effect of overall obesity and abdominal obesity on type 2 diabetes among Chinese Han individuals. The causal relationship of BMI and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) with the risk of glucose deterioration and glycemic traits was compared using two different genetic instruments based on 30 BMI loci and 6 WHR loci with Mendelian randomization (MR) in three prospective cohorts (n = 6,476). Each 1-SD genetically instrumented higher WHR was associated with a 65.7% higher risk of glucose deterioration (95% CI = 1.069-2.569, P = 0.024), whereas no significant association of BMI with glucose deterioration was observed. Furthermore, a causal relationship was found only between BMI and homeostatic model assessment β-cell function (HOMA-B) (β = 0.143, P = 0.001), and there was a nominal association with Stumvoll second-phase insulin secretion traits (β = 0.074, P = 0.022). The significance level did not persist in sensitivity analyses, except in the causal estimate of WHR on the Gutt index in MR-Egger (β = -0.379, P = 0.022) and the causal estimate of BMI on homeostatic model assessment β-cell function in weighted median MR (β = 0.128, P = 0.017). The data from this study support the potential causal relationship between abdominal obesity and hyperglycemia, which may be driven by aggravated insulin resistance, in contrast with the potential causal relationship between overall obesity and insulin secretion. © 2018 The Obesity Society.

Estimating the causal effect of body mass index on hay fever, asthma and lung function using Mendelian randomization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skaaby, T; Taylor, A E; Thuesen, B H

2018-01-01

effects. We examined the causal effect of BMI on asthma, hay fever, allergic sensitization, serum total immunoglobulin E (IgE), forced expiratory volume in one-second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC). METHODS: We included 490 497 participants in the observational and 162 124 participants...... support the conclusion that increasing BMI is causally related to higher prevalence of asthma and decreased lung function, but not with hay fever or biomarkers of allergy....

Determining Directional Dependency in Causal Associations

Science.gov (United States)

Pornprasertmanit, Sunthud; Little, Todd D.

2012-01-01

Directional dependency is a method to determine the likely causal direction of effect between two variables. This article aims to critique and improve upon the use of directional dependency as a technique to infer causal associations. We comment on several issues raised by von Eye and DeShon (2012), including: encouraging the use of the signs of…

Causal compositional models in valuation-based systems with examples in specific theories

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Jiroušek, Radim; Shenoy, P. P.

2016-01-01

Roč. 72, č. 1 (2016), s. 95-112 ISSN 0888-613X Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GA15-00215S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : operator of composition * causality * belief function Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Economic Theory Impact factor: 2.845, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/MTR/jirousek-0481260.pdf

Causal strength induction from time series data.

Science.gov (United States)

Soo, Kevin W; Rottman, Benjamin M

2018-04-01

One challenge when inferring the strength of cause-effect relations from time series data is that the cause and/or effect can exhibit temporal trends. If temporal trends are not accounted for, a learner could infer that a causal relation exists when it does not, or even infer that there is a positive causal relation when the relation is negative, or vice versa. We propose that learners use a simple heuristic to control for temporal trends-that they focus not on the states of the cause and effect at a given instant, but on how the cause and effect change from one observation to the next, which we call transitions. Six experiments were conducted to understand how people infer causal strength from time series data. We found that participants indeed use transitions in addition to states, which helps them to reach more accurate causal judgments (Experiments 1A and 1B). Participants use transitions more when the stimuli are presented in a naturalistic visual format than a numerical format (Experiment 2), and the effect of transitions is not driven by primacy or recency effects (Experiment 3). Finally, we found that participants primarily use the direction in which variables change rather than the magnitude of the change for estimating causal strength (Experiments 4 and 5). Collectively, these studies provide evidence that people often use a simple yet effective heuristic for inferring causal strength from time series data. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Causal Relationships in the Balanced Scorecard: A Path Analysis Approach

OpenAIRE

Yael Perlman

2013-01-01

We use path analysis to identify causal relationships between different performance measures in each of the four perspectives defined in the balanced scorecard and examine the influence of time lag on relationships between perspectives. We analyze performance data from a real high-tech company. Our results point to a direct relationship between leading measures in the learning and growth perspective and lagging measures in the financial perspective. Our findings also support the existence of ...

Explaining quantum correlations through evolution of causal models

Science.gov (United States)

Harper, Robin; Chapman, Robert J.; Ferrie, Christopher; Granade, Christopher; Kueng, Richard; Naoumenko, Daniel; Flammia, Steven T.; Peruzzo, Alberto

2017-04-01

We propose a framework for the systematic and quantitative generalization of Bell's theorem using causal networks. We first consider the multiobjective optimization problem of matching observed data while minimizing the causal effect of nonlocal variables and prove an inequality for the optimal region that both strengthens and generalizes Bell's theorem. To solve the optimization problem (rather than simply bound it), we develop a genetic algorithm treating as individuals causal networks. By applying our algorithm to a photonic Bell experiment, we demonstrate the trade-off between the quantitative relaxation of one or more local causality assumptions and the ability of data to match quantum correlations.

Tachyon kinematics and causality: a systematic thorough analysis of the tachyon causal paradoxes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Recami, E.

1987-01-01

The chronological order of the events along a spacelike path is not invariant under Lorentz transformations, as is well known. This led to an early conviction that tachyons would give rise to causal anomalies. A relativistic version of the Stueckelberg-Feynman switching procedure (SWP) has been invoked as the suitable tool to eliminate those anomalies. The application of the SWP does eliminate the motions backwards in time, but interchanges the roles of source and detector. This fact triggered the proposal of a host of causal paradoxes. Till now, however, it has not been recognized that such paradoxes can be sensibly discussed (and completely solved, at least in microphysics) only after the tachyon relativistic mechanics has been properly developed. They start by showing how to apply the SWP, both in the case of ordinary special relativity and in the case with tachyons. Then they carefully exploit the kinetics of the tachyon exchange between two (ordinary) bodies. Being finally able to tackle the tachyon causality problem, they successively solve the paradoxes of: (i) Tolman-Regge, (ii) Pirani, (iii) Edmonds, and (iv) Bell. Finally, they discuss a further, new paradox associated with the transmission of signals by modulated tachyon beams

A causal link between prediction errors, dopamine neurons and learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Steinberg, Elizabeth E; Keiflin, Ronald; Boivin, Josiah R; Witten, Ilana B; Deisseroth, Karl; Janak, Patricia H

2013-07-01

Situations in which rewards are unexpectedly obtained or withheld represent opportunities for new learning. Often, this learning includes identifying cues that predict reward availability. Unexpected rewards strongly activate midbrain dopamine neurons. This phasic signal is proposed to support learning about antecedent cues by signaling discrepancies between actual and expected outcomes, termed a reward prediction error. However, it is unknown whether dopamine neuron prediction error signaling and cue-reward learning are causally linked. To test this hypothesis, we manipulated dopamine neuron activity in rats in two behavioral procedures, associative blocking and extinction, that illustrate the essential function of prediction errors in learning. We observed that optogenetic activation of dopamine neurons concurrent with reward delivery, mimicking a prediction error, was sufficient to cause long-lasting increases in cue-elicited reward-seeking behavior. Our findings establish a causal role for temporally precise dopamine neuron signaling in cue-reward learning, bridging a critical gap between experimental evidence and influential theoretical frameworks.

Consumer attitudes and understanding of cholesterol-lowering claims on food: randomize mock-package experiments with plant sterol and oat fibre claims.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, C L; Mendoza, J; Henson, S J; Qi, Y; Lou, W; L'Abbé, M R

2014-08-01

Few studies have examined consumer acceptability or comprehension of cholesterol-lowering claims on food labels. Our objective was to assess consumer attitudes and understanding of cholesterol-lowering claims regarding plant sterols (PS) and oat fibre (OF). We conducted two studies on: (1) PS claims and (2) OF claims. Both studies involved a randomized mock-packaged experiment within an online survey administered to Canadian consumers. In the PS study (n=721), we tested three PS-related claims (disease risk reduction claim, function claim and nutrient content claim) and a 'tastes great' claim (control) on identical margarine containers. Similarly, in the OF study (n=710), we tested three claims related to OF and a 'taste great' claim on identical cereal boxes. In both studies, participants answered the same set of questions on attitudes and understanding of claims after seeing each mock package. All claims that mentioned either PS or OF resulted in more positive attitudes than the taste control claim (Pprofile. How consumers responded to the nutrition claims between the two studies was influenced by contextual factors such as familiarity with the functional food/component and the food product that carried the claim. Permitted nutrition claims are approved based on physiological evidence and are allowed on any food product as long as it meets the associated nutrient criteria. However, it is difficult to generalize attitudes and understanding of claims when they are so highly dependent on contextual factors.

The causality relationship between energy consumption and GDP in G-11 countries revisited

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, C.-C.

2006-01-01

This paper explores whether energy conservation policies can be implemented in countries with the same level of development. That is, is restraining energy consumption without compromising economic growth feasible in all industrialized countries? A new Granger non-causality testing procedure developed by Toda and Yamamoto [1995, Journal of Econometrics 66, 225-250] is applied to re-investigate the relationship, if any, between energy consumption and income in 11 major industrialized countries. The results clearly do not support the view that energy consumption and income are neutral with respect to each other, except in the case of the United Kingdom, Germany and Sweden where a neutral relationship is found. Bi-directional causality in the United States and uni-directional running from energy consumption to GDP in Canada, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland are found. This indicates that energy conservation may hinder economic growth in the latter five countries. Further, the causality relationship appears to be uni-directional but reversed for France, Italy and Japan which implies that, in these three countries, energy conservation may be viable without being detrimental to economic growth

New Insights into Signed Path Coefficient Granger Causality Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jian; Li, Chong; Jiang, Tianzi

2016-01-01

Granger causality analysis, as a time series analysis technique derived from econometrics, has been applied in an ever-increasing number of publications in the field of neuroscience, including fMRI, EEG/MEG, and fNIRS. The present study mainly focuses on the validity of "signed path coefficient Granger causality," a Granger-causality-derived analysis method that has been adopted by many fMRI researches in the last few years. This method generally estimates the causality effect among the time series by an order-1 autoregression, and defines a positive or negative coefficient as an "excitatory" or "inhibitory" influence. In the current work we conducted a series of computations from resting-state fMRI data and simulation experiments to illustrate the signed path coefficient method was flawed and untenable, due to the fact that the autoregressive coefficients were not always consistent with the real causal relationships and this would inevitablely lead to erroneous conclusions. Overall our findings suggested that the applicability of this kind of causality analysis was rather limited, hence researchers should be more cautious in applying the signed path coefficient Granger causality to fMRI data to avoid misinterpretation.

Determinants of consumer understanding of health claims

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grunert, Klaus G; Scholderer, Joachim; Rogeaux, Michel

2011-01-01

as safe, risky or other. In addition to the open questions on claim understanding, respondents rated a number of statements on claim interpretation for agreement and completed scales on interest in healthy eating, attitude to functional foods, and subjective knowledge on food and health. Results showed......The new EU regulation on nutrition and health claims states that claims can be permitted only if they can be expected to be understood by consumers. Investigating determinants of consumer understanding of health claims has therefore become an important topic. Understanding of a health claim...... on a yoghurt product was investigated with a sample of 720 category users in Germany. Health claim understanding was measured using open answers, which were subsequently content analysed and classified by comparison with the scientific dossier of the health claim. Based on this respondents were classified...

32 CFR 537.15 - Statutory authority for maritime claims and claims involving civil works of a maritime nature.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Statutory authority for maritime claims and claims involving civil works of a maritime nature. 537.15 Section 537.15 National Defense Department of....15 Statutory authority for maritime claims and claims involving civil works of a maritime nature. (a...

A replication of "Education and catch-up in the Industrial Revolution" (American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2011)

OpenAIRE

Edwards, Jeremy S. S.

2017-01-01

Although European economic history provides essentially no support for the view that education of the general population has a positive causal effect on economic growth, a recent paper by Becker, Hornung and Woessmann (Education and catch-up in the Industrial Revolution, 2011) claims that such education had a significant impact on Prussian industrialisation. The author shows that the instrumental variable they use to identify the causal effect of education is correlated with variables that in...

A replication of "Education and catch-up in the industrial revolution" (American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2011)

OpenAIRE

Edwards, Jeremy

2018-01-01

Although European economic history provides essentially no support for the view that education of the general population has a positive causal effect on economic growth, a recent paper by Becker, Hornung and Woessmann (Education and Catch-Up in the Industrial Revolution, 2011) claims that such education had a significant impact on Prussian industrialisation. The author shows that the instrumental variable BHW use to identify the causal effect of education is correlated with variables that inf...

Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Vietnam: Threshold Cointegration and Causality Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

BINH Thanh PHUNG

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the energy consumption-growth nexus in Vietnam. The causal relationship between the logarithm of per capita energy consumption (LPCEC and the logarithm of per capita GDP (LPCGDP during the 1976-2010 period is examined using the threshold cointegration and vector error correction models for Granger causality tests. The estimation results indicate that the LPCEC and LPCGDP for Vietnam are cointegrated and that there is a strong uni-directional causality running from LPCGDP to LPCEC, but not vice versa. It is also found that the effect of LPCGDP on LPCEC in Vietnam is time-varying (i.e. significantly different between before and after the structural breakpoint, 1992. The research results strongly support the neoclassical perspective that energy consumption is not a limiting factor to economic growth in Vietnam. Accordingly, an important policy implication resulting from this analysis is that government can pursue the conservation energy policies that aim at curtailing energy use for environmental friendly development purposes without creating severe effects on economic growth. In future, the energy should be efficiently allocated into more productive sectors of the economy.

The Association Between Circulating Lipoprotein(a) and Type 2 Diabetes: Is It Causal?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ye, Zheng; Haycock, Philip C.; Gurdasani, Deepti; Pomilla, Cristina; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; Tsimikas, Sotirios; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Sandhu, Manjinder S.; Forouhi, Nita G.

2014-01-01

Epidemiological evidence supports a direct and causal association between lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] levels and coronary risk, but the nature of the association between Lp(a) levels and risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is unclear. In this study, we assessed the association of Lp(a) levels with risk of

Granger Causality Testing with Intensive Longitudinal Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Molenaar, Peter C M

2018-06-01

The availability of intensive longitudinal data obtained by means of ambulatory assessment opens up new prospects for prevention research in that it allows the derivation of subject-specific dynamic networks of interacting variables by means of vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling. The dynamic networks thus obtained can be subjected to Granger causality testing in order to identify causal relations among the observed time-dependent variables. VARs have two equivalent representations: standard and structural. Results obtained with Granger causality testing depend upon which representation is chosen, yet no criteria exist on which this important choice can be based. A new equivalent representation is introduced called hybrid VARs with which the best representation can be chosen in a data-driven way. Partial directed coherence, a frequency-domain statistic for Granger causality testing, is shown to perform optimally when based on hybrid VARs. An application to real data is provided.

Causality Between Urban Concentration and Environmental Quality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amin Pujiati

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Population is concentrated in urban areas can cause the external diseconomies on environment if it exceeds the carrying capacity of the space and the urban economy. Otherwise the quality of the environment is getting better, led to the concentration of population in urban areas are increasingly high. This study aims to analyze the relationship of causality between the urban concentration and environmental quality in urban agglomeration areas. The data used in the study of secondary data obtained from the Central Bureau of statistics and the City Government from 2000 to 2013. The analytical method used is the Granger causality and descriptive. Granger causality study results showed no pattern of reciprocal causality, between urban concentration and the quality of the environment, but there unidirectional relationship between the urban concentration and environmental quality. This means that increasing urban concentration led to decreased environmental quality.

Partial Granger causality--eliminating exogenous inputs and latent variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Shuixia; Seth, Anil K; Kendrick, Keith M; Zhou, Cong; Feng, Jianfeng

2008-07-15

Attempts to identify causal interactions in multivariable biological time series (e.g., gene data, protein data, physiological data) can be undermined by the confounding influence of environmental (exogenous) inputs. Compounding this problem, we are commonly only able to record a subset of all related variables in a system. These recorded variables are likely to be influenced by unrecorded (latent) variables. To address this problem, we introduce a novel variant of a widely used statistical measure of causality--Granger causality--that is inspired by the definition of partial correlation. Our 'partial Granger causality' measure is extensively tested with toy models, both linear and nonlinear, and is applied to experimental data: in vivo multielectrode array (MEA) local field potentials (LFPs) recorded from the inferotemporal cortex of sheep. Our results demonstrate that partial Granger causality can reveal the underlying interactions among elements in a network in the presence of exogenous inputs and latent variables in many cases where the existing conditional Granger causality fails.

Could Plasmodium vivax malaria trigger malnutrition? Revisiting the Bradford Hill criteria to assess a causal relationship between two neglected problems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wuelton Marcelo Monteiro

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract: The benign characteristics formerly attributed to Plasmodium vivax infections have recently changed owing to the increasing number of reports of severe vivax malaria resulting in a broad spectrum of clinical complications, probably including undernutrition. Causal inference is a complex process, and arriving at a tentative inference of the causal or non-causal nature of an association is a subjective process limited by the existing evidence. Applying classical epidemiology principles, such as the Bradford Hill criteria, may help foster an understanding of causality and lead to appropriate interventions being proposed that may improve quality of life and decrease morbidity in neglected populations. Here, we examined these criteria in the context of the available data suggesting that vivax malaria may substantially contribute to childhood malnutrition. We found the data supported a role for P. vivax in the etiology of undernutrition in endemic areas. Thus, the application of modern causal inference tools, in future studies, may be useful in determining causation.

Inductive reasoning about causally transmitted properties.

Science.gov (United States)

Shafto, Patrick; Kemp, Charles; Bonawitz, Elizabeth Baraff; Coley, John D; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

2008-11-01

Different intuitive theories constrain and guide inferences in different contexts. Formalizing simple intuitive theories as probabilistic processes operating over structured representations, we present a new computational model of category-based induction about causally transmitted properties. A first experiment demonstrates undergraduates' context-sensitive use of taxonomic and food web knowledge to guide reasoning about causal transmission and shows good qualitative agreement between model predictions and human inferences. A second experiment demonstrates strong quantitative and qualitative fits to inferences about a more complex artificial food web. A third experiment investigates human reasoning about complex novel food webs where species have known taxonomic relations. Results demonstrate a double-dissociation between the predictions of our causal model and a related taxonomic model [Kemp, C., & Tenenbaum, J. B. (2003). Learning domain structures. In Proceedings of the 25th annual conference of the cognitive science society]: the causal model predicts human inferences about diseases but not genes, while the taxonomic model predicts human inferences about genes but not diseases. We contrast our framework with previous models of category-based induction and previous formal instantiations of intuitive theories, and outline challenges in developing a complete model of context-sensitive reasoning.

Neural correlates of continuous causal word generation.

Science.gov (United States)

Wende, Kim C; Straube, Benjamin; Stratmann, Mirjam; Sommer, Jens; Kircher, Tilo; Nagels, Arne

2012-09-01

Causality provides a natural structure for organizing our experience and language. Causal reasoning during speech production is a distinct aspect of verbal communication, whose related brain processes are yet unknown. The aim of the current study was to investigate the neural mechanisms underlying the continuous generation of cause-and-effect coherences during overt word production. During fMRI data acquisition participants performed three verbal fluency tasks on identical cue words: A novel causal verbal fluency task (CVF), requiring the production of multiple reasons to a given cue word (e.g. reasons for heat are fire, sun etc.), a semantic (free association, FA, e.g. associations with heat are sweat, shower etc.) and a phonological control task (phonological verbal fluency, PVF, e.g. rhymes with heat are meat, wheat etc.). We found that, in contrast to PVF, both CVF and FA activated a left lateralized network encompassing inferior frontal, inferior parietal and angular regions, with further bilateral activation in middle and inferior as well as superior temporal gyri and the cerebellum. For CVF contrasted against FA, we found greater bold responses only in the left middle frontal cortex. Large overlaps in the neural activations during free association and causal verbal fluency indicate that the access to causal relationships between verbal concepts is at least partly based on the semantic neural network. The selective activation in the left middle frontal cortex for causal verbal fluency suggests that distinct neural processes related to cause-and-effect-relations are associated with the recruitment of middle frontal brain areas. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Testing causal relationships between wholesale electricity prices and primary energy prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakajima, Tadahiro; Hamori, Shigeyuki

2013-01-01

We apply the lag-augmented vector autoregression technique to test the Granger-causal relationships among wholesale electricity prices, natural gas prices, and crude oil prices. In addition, by adopting a cross-correlation function approach, we test not only the causality in mean but also the causality in variance between the variables. The results of tests using both techniques show that gas prices Granger-cause electricity prices in mean. We find no Granger-causality in variance among these variables. -- Highlights: •We test the Granger-causality among wholesale electricity and primary energy prices. •We test not only the causality in mean but also the causality in variance. •The results show that gas prices Granger-cause electricity prices in mean. •We find no Granger-causality in variance among these variables

Pharmacological inactivation does not support a unique causal role for intraparietal sulcus in the discrimination of visual number.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicholas K DeWind

Full Text Available The "number sense" describes the intuitive ability to quantify without counting. Single neuron recordings in non-human primates and functional imaging in humans suggest the intraparietal sulcus is an important neuroanatomical locus of numerical estimation. Other lines of inquiry implicate the IPS in numerous other functions, including attention and decision making. Here we provide a direct test of whether IPS has functional specificity for numerosity judgments. We used muscimol to reversibly and independently inactivate the ventral and lateral intraparietal areas in two monkeys performing a numerical discrimination task and a color discrimination task, roughly equilibrated for difficulty. Inactivation of either area caused parallel impairments in both tasks and no evidence of a selective deficit in numerical processing. These findings do not support a causal role for the IPS in numerical discrimination, except insofar as it also has a role in the discrimination of color. We discuss our findings in light of several alternative hypotheses of IPS function, including a role in orienting responses, a general cognitive role in attention and decision making processes and a more specific role in ordinal comparison that encompasses both number and color judgments.

32 CFR 536.19 - Disaster claims planning.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Disaster claims planning. 536.19 Section 536.19... AGAINST THE UNITED STATES The Army Claims System § 536.19 Disaster claims planning. All ACOs will prepare... requirements related to disaster claims planning. ...

Social Influences on Paranormal Belief: Popular versus Scientific Support

Science.gov (United States)

Ridolfo, Heather; Baxter, Amy; Lucas, Jeffrey W.

2010-01-01

Paranormal claims enjoy relatively widespread popular support despite by definition being rejected by the scientific community. We propose that belief in paranormal claims is influenced by how popular those claims are as well as by dominant scientific views on the claims. We additionally propose that individuals will be most likely to be…

Operating room fires: a closed claims analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Mehta, Sonya P; Bhananker, Sanjay M; Posner, Karen L; Domino, Karen B

2013-05-01

To assess patterns of injury and liability associated with operating room (OR) fires, closed malpractice claims in the American Society of Anesthesiologists Closed Claims Database since 1985 were reviewed. All claims related to fires in the OR were compared with nonfire-related surgical anesthesia claims. An analysis of fire-related claims was performed to identify causative factors. There were 103 OR fire claims (1.9% of 5,297 surgical claims). Electrocautery was the ignition source in 90% of fire claims. OR fire claims more frequently involved older outpatients compared with other surgical anesthesia claims (P fire claims (P fires (n = 93) increased over time (P fires occurred during head, neck, or upper chest procedures (high-fire-risk procedures). Oxygen served as the oxidizer in 95% of electrocautery-induced OR fires (84% with open delivery system). Most electrocautery-induced fires (n = 75, 81%) occurred during monitored anesthesia care. Oxygen was administered via an open delivery system in all high-risk procedures during monitored anesthesia care. In contrast, alcohol-containing prep solutions and volatile compounds were present in only 15% of OR fires during monitored anesthesia care. Electrocautery-induced fires during monitored anesthesia care were the most common cause of OR fires claims. Recognition of the fire triad (oxidizer, fuel, and ignition source), particularly the critical role of supplemental oxygen by an open delivery system during use of the electrocautery, is crucial to prevent OR fires. Continuing education and communication among OR personnel along with fire prevention protocols in high-fire-risk procedures may reduce the occurrence of OR fires.

38 CFR 3.160 - Status of claims.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

..., Compensation, and Dependency and Indemnity Compensation Claims § 3.160 Status of claims. The following definitions are applicable to claims for pension, compensation, and dependency and indemnity compensation. (a... for a benefit received after final disallowance of an earlier claim, or any application based on...

UMA TEORÍA CAUSAL PARA LOS CASOS FREGE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ABEL WAJNERMAN PAZ

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Fodor ha argumentado a favor de un par de tesis que pueden caracterizarse como constituyendo un dilema: Por un lado, si adoptamos una teoría funcional para los conceptos explicamos semánticamente los casos Frege pero caemos en el holismo semántico. Por otro lado, si adoptamos una teoría causal/informacional evitamos el holismo pero no explicamos los casos Frege semánticamente. Fodor (por ej, 1994, 1998 y 2008 intenta evitar la segunda parte del dilema argumentando que los casos de Frege pueden tener una explicación sintáctica y no semántica. En este trabajo intentaré ofrecer una salida alternativa al dilema fodoriano. Propondré una explicación semántica de los casos Frege que incorpora tanto elementos de una teoría causal como de una de rol funcional. Afirmaré que el contenido cognitivo o estrecho de un concepto (el tipo de contenido aparentemente exigido por los casos Frege es el conjunto de contenidos causales/informacionales de las representaciones que figuran en su rol funcional. Considero que individuar a las representaciones en los roles por medio de sus contenidos causales permite evitar el holismo (evitando el proceso de ramsificación típicamente empleado para individuar a los roles y que identificar el contenido cognitivo con contenidos causales/informacionales de las representaciones en los roles permite evitar el referencialismo de las propuestas causales (podemos distinguir sentido de referencia en términos causales.

Granger Causality and Unit Roots

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir; Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel

2014-01-01

The asymptotic behavior of the Granger-causality test under stochastic nonstationarity is studied. Our results confirm that the inference drawn from the test is not reliable when the series are integrated to the first order. In the presence of deterministic components, the test statistic diverges......, eventually rejecting the null hypothesis, even when the series are independent of each other. Moreover, controlling for these deterministic elements (in the auxiliary regressions of the test) does not preclude the possibility of drawing erroneous inferences. Granger-causality tests should not be used under...

Quantum theory and local causality

CERN Document Server

Hofer-Szabó, Gábor

2018-01-01

This book summarizes the results of research the authors have pursued in the past years on the problem of implementing Bell's notion of local causality in local physical theories and relating it to other important concepts and principles in the foundations of physics such as the Common Cause Principle, Bell's inequalities, the EPR (Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen) scenario, and various other locality and causality concepts. The book is intended for philosophers of science with an interest in the formal background of sciences, philosophers of physics and physicists working in foundation of physics.

Quantum causality conceptual issues in the causal theory of quantum mechanics

CERN Document Server

Riggs, Peter J; French, Steven RD

2009-01-01

This is a treatise devoted to the foundations of quantum physics and the role that causality plays in the microscopic world governed by the laws of quantum mechanics. The book is controversial and will engender some lively debate on the various issues raised.

A Causal Model of Faculty Research Productivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Bean, John P.

A causal model of faculty research productivity was developed through a survey of the literature. Models of organizational behavior, organizational effectiveness, and motivation were synthesized into a causal model of productivity. Two general types of variables were assumed to affect individual research productivity: institutional variables and…

Causal inheritance in plane wave quotients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubeny, Veronika E.; Rangamani, Mukund; Ross, Simon F.

2003-01-01

We investigate the appearance of closed timelike curves in quotients of plane waves along spacelike isometries. First we formulate a necessary and sufficient condition for a quotient of a general spacetime to preserve stable causality. We explicitly show that the plane waves are stably causal; in passing, we observe that some pp-waves are not even distinguishing. We then consider the classification of all quotients of the maximally supersymmetric ten-dimensional plane wave under a spacelike isometry, and show that the quotient will lead to closed timelike curves iff the isometry involves a translation along the u direction. The appearance of these closed timelike curves is thus connected to the special properties of the light cones in plane wave spacetimes. We show that all other quotients preserve stable causality

Testing the causal theory of reference.

Science.gov (United States)

Domaneschi, Filippo; Vignolo, Massimiliano; Di Paola, Simona

2017-04-01

Theories of reference are a crucial research topic in analytic philosophy. Since the publication of Kripke's Naming and Necessity, most philosophers have endorsed the causal/historical theory of reference. The goal of this paper is twofold: (i) to discuss a method for testing experimentally the causal theory of reference for proper names by investigating linguistic usage and (ii) to present the results from two experiments conducted with that method. Data collected in our experiments confirm the causal theory of reference for people proper names and for geographical proper names. A secondary but interesting result is that the semantic domain affects reference assignment: while with people proper names speakers tend to assign the semantic reference, with geographical proper names they are prompted to assign the speaker's reference. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Causal inheritance in plane wave quotients

Science.gov (United States)

Hubeny, Veronika E.; Rangamani, Mukund; Ross, Simon F.

2004-01-01

We investigate the appearance of closed timelike curves in quotients of plane waves along spacelike isometries. First we formulate a necessary and sufficient condition for a quotient of a general space-time to preserve stable causality. We explicitly show that the plane waves are stably causal; in passing, we observe that some pp waves are not even distinguishing. We then consider the classification of all quotients of the maximally supersymmetric ten-dimensional plane wave under a spacelike isometry, and show that the quotient will lead to closed timelike curves iff the isometry involves a translation along the u direction. The appearance of these closed timelike curves is thus connected to the special properties of the light cones in plane wave space-times. We show that all other quotients preserve stable causality.

37 CFR 360.5 - Copies of claims.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Section 360.5 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights COPYRIGHT ROYALTY BOARD, LIBRARY OF CONGRESS SUBMISSION OF ROYALTY CLAIMS FILING OF CLAIMS TO ROYALTY FEES COLLECTED UNDER COMPULSORY LICENSE Cable Claims... hand delivery or by mail, file an original and one copy of the claim to cable royalty fees. ...

Causal mediation analysis with multiple causally non-ordered mediators.

Science.gov (United States)

Taguri, Masataka; Featherstone, John; Cheng, Jing

2018-01-01

In many health studies, researchers are interested in estimating the treatment effects on the outcome around and through an intermediate variable. Such causal mediation analyses aim to understand the mechanisms that explain the treatment effect. Although multiple mediators are often involved in real studies, most of the literature considered mediation analyses with one mediator at a time. In this article, we consider mediation analyses when there are causally non-ordered multiple mediators. Even if the mediators do not affect each other, the sum of two indirect effects through the two mediators considered separately may diverge from the joint natural indirect effect when there are additive interactions between the effects of the two mediators on the outcome. Therefore, we derive an equation for the joint natural indirect effect based on the individual mediation effects and their interactive effect, which helps us understand how the mediation effect works through the two mediators and relative contributions of the mediators and their interaction. We also discuss an extension for three mediators. The proposed method is illustrated using data from a randomized trial on the prevention of dental caries.

Beyond Markov: Accounting for independence violations in causal reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Rehder, Bob

2018-06-01

Although many theories of causal cognition are based on causal graphical models, a key property of such models-the independence relations stipulated by the Markov condition-is routinely violated by human reasoners. This article presents three new accounts of those independence violations, accounts that share the assumption that people's understanding of the correlational structure of data generated from a causal graph differs from that stipulated by causal graphical model framework. To distinguish these models, experiments assessed how people reason with causal graphs that are larger than those tested in previous studies. A traditional common cause network (Y 1 ←X→Y 2 ) was extended so that the effects themselves had effects (Z 1 ←Y 1 ←X→Y 2 →Z 2 ). A traditional common effect network (Y 1 →X←Y 2 ) was extended so that the causes themselves had causes (Z 1 →Y 1 →X←Y 2 ←Z 2 ). Subjects' inferences were most consistent with the beta-Q model in which consistent states of the world-those in which variables are either mostly all present or mostly all absent-are viewed as more probable than stipulated by the causal graphical model framework. Substantial variability in subjects' inferences was also observed, with the result that substantial minorities of subjects were best fit by one of the other models (the dual prototype or a leaky gate models). The discrepancy between normative and human causal cognition stipulated by these models is foundational in the sense that they locate the error not in people's causal reasoning but rather in their causal representations. As a result, they are applicable to any cognitive theory grounded in causal graphical models, including theories of analogy, learning, explanation, categorization, decision-making, and counterfactual reasoning. Preliminary evidence that independence violations indeed generalize to other judgment types is presented. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trivariate causality between economic growth, urbanisation and electricity consumption in Angola: Cointegration and causality analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Solarin, Sakiru Adebola; Shahbaz, Muhammad

2013-01-01

This paper investigates the causal relationship between economic growth, urbanisation and electricity consumption in the case of Angola, while utilizing the data over the period of 1971–2009. We have applied Lee and Strazicich (2003. The Review of Economics and Statistics 63, 1082–1089; 2004. Working Paper. Department of Economics, Appalachian State University) unit root tests to examine the stationarity properties of the series. Using the Gregory–Hansen structural break cointegration procedure as a complement, we employ the ARDL bounds test to investigate long run relationships. The VECM Granger causality test is subsequently used to examine the direction of causality between economic growth, urbanisation, and electricity consumption. Our results indicate the existence of long run relationships. We further observe evidence in favour of bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth. The feedback hypothesis is also found between urbanisation and economic growth. Urbanisation and electricity consumption Granger cause each other. We conclude that Angola is energy-dependent country. Consequently, the relevant authorities should boost electricity production as one of the means of achieving sustainable economic development in the long run. - Highlights: • We consider the link between electricity consumption and economic growth in Angola. • Urbanisation is added to turn the research into a trivariate investigation. • Various time series procedures are used. • Results show that increasing electricity will improve economic growth in Angola. • Results show urbanisations reduced economic growth during civil war

Simplifying Causal Complexity: How Interactions between Modes of Causal Induction and Information Availability Lead to Heuristic-Driven Reasoning

Science.gov (United States)

Grotzer, Tina A.; Tutwiler, M. Shane

2014-01-01

This article considers a set of well-researched default assumptions that people make in reasoning about complex causality and argues that, in part, they result from the forms of causal induction that we engage in and the type of information available in complex environments. It considers how information often falls outside our attentional frame…

Korean consumers' perceptions of health/functional food claims according to the strength of scientific evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Ji Yeon; Kang, Eun Jin; Kwon, Oran; Kim, Gun-Hee

2010-10-01

In this study, we investigated that consumers could differentiate between levels of claims and clarify how a visual aid influences consumer understanding of the different claim levels. We interviewed 2,000 consumers in 13 shopping malls on their perception of and confidence in different levels of health claims using seven point scales. The average confidence scores given by participants were 4.17 for the probable level and 4.07 for the possible level; the score for the probable level was significantly higher than that for the possible level (P consumers understand the strength of scientific evidence behind those claims. Moreover, when a visual aid was included, consumers perceived the scientific levels more clearly and had greater confidence in their meanings than when a visual aid was not included. Although this result suggests that consumers react differently to different claim levels, it is not yet clear whether consumers understand the variations in the degree of scientific support.

Causal Relationship between Construction Production and GDP in Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hakkı Kutay Bolkol

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This study empirically investigates the causal relationship between construction production and GDP for Turkey during 2005Q1-2013Q4 period. Because it is found that, there is no cointegration which means there is no long run relationship between variables, VAR Granger Causality Method is used to test the causality in short run. The findings reveal that, the causality runs from GDP to Building Production and Building Production to Non-Building Production (i.e. bidirectional relationship. Findings of this paper suggest that, because there is no long run relationship between Construction Production (Building and Non-Building and GDP and also in short run the causality runs from GDP to Construction Production, the growth strategy based on mainly Construction Sector growth is not a good idea for Turkey.

Causal Relationship between Construction Production and GDP in Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hakkı Kutay Bolkol

2015-09-01

Full Text Available This study empirically investigates the causal relationship between construction production and GDP for Turkey during 2005Q1-2013Q4 period. Because it is found that, there is no cointegration which means there is no long run relationship between variables, VAR Granger Causality Method is used to test the causality in short run. The findings reveal that, the causality runs from GDP to Building Production and Building Production to Non-Building Production (i.e. bidirectional relationship. Findings of this paper suggest that, because there is no long run relationship between Construction Production (Building and Non-Building and GDP and also in short run the causality runs from GDP to Construction Production, the growth strategy based on mainly Construction Sector growth is not a good idea for Turkey.

Causality in demand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Max; Jensen, Frank; Setälä, Jari

2011-01-01

to fish demand. On the German market for farmed trout and substitutes, it is found that supply sources, i.e. aquaculture and fishery, are not the only determinant of causality. Storing, tightness of management and aggregation level of integrated markets might also be important. The methodological...

The causal relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The causal relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the ... of selected west African countries: Panel ARDL/Granger Causality Analysis. ... among this developing countries and an important revelation for policy implication.

On the dynamics of aggregate output, electricity consumption and exports in Malaysia: Evidence from multivariate Granger causality tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lean, Hooi Hooi; Smyth, Russell

2010-01-01

This paper employs annual data from 1971 to 2006 to examine the causal relationship between aggregate output, electricity consumption, exports, labor and capital in a multivariate model for Malaysia. We find that there is bidirectional Granger causality running between aggregate output and electricity consumption. The policy implication of this result is that Malaysia should adopt the dual strategy of increasing investment in electricity infrastructure and stepping up electricity conservation policies to reduce unnecessary wastage of electricity, in order to avoid the negative effect of reducing electricity consumption on aggregate output. We also find support for the export-led hypothesis which states Granger causality runs from exports to aggregate output. This result is consistent with Malaysia pursuing a successful export-orientated strategy. (author)

Claim prevention at reactor facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Colby, B.P.

1987-01-01

Why does a radiation worker bring a claim alleging bodily injury from radiation exposure? Natural cancer, fear of radiation induced cancer, financial gain, emotional distress and mental anguish are some reasons for workers' claims. In this paper the author describes what power reactor health physicists are doing to reduce the likelihood of claims by establishing programs which provide sound protection of workers, prevent radiological events, improve workers' knowledge of radiological conditions and provide guidance for radiological incident response

Political liberalism and religious claims: Four blind spots.

Science.gov (United States)

Stoeckl, Kristina

2017-01-01

This article gives an overview of 4 important lacunae in political liberalism and identifies, in a preliminary fashion, some trends in the literature that can come in for support in filling these blind spots, which prevent political liberalism from a correct assessment of the diverse nature of religious claims. Political liberalism operates with implicit assumptions about religious actors being either 'liberal' or 'fundamentalist' and ignores a third, in-between group, namely traditionalist religious actors and their claims. After having explained what makes traditionalist religious actors different from liberal and fundamentalist religious actors, the author develops 4 areas in which political liberalism should be pushed further theoretically in order to correctly theorize the challenge which traditional religious actors pose to liberal democracy. These 4 areas (blind spots) are: (1) the context of translation; (2) the politics of exemptions; (3) the multivocality of theology; and (4) the transnational nature of norm-contestation.

Sensitivity Analysis and Bounding of Causal Effects with Alternative Identifying Assumptions

Science.gov (United States)

Jo, Booil; Vinokur, Amiram D.

2011-01-01

When identification of causal effects relies on untestable assumptions regarding nonidentified parameters, sensitivity of causal effect estimates is often questioned. For proper interpretation of causal effect estimates in this situation, deriving bounds on causal parameters or exploring the sensitivity of estimates to scientifically plausible…

Causal quantum theory and the collapse locality loophole

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kent, Adrian

2005-01-01

Causal quantum theory is an umbrella term for ordinary quantum theory modified by two hypotheses: state vector reduction is a well-defined process, and strict local causality applies. The first of these holds in some versions of Copenhagen quantum theory and need not necessarily imply practically testable deviations from ordinary quantum theory. The second implies that measurement events which are spacelike separated have no nonlocal correlations. To test this prediction, which sharply differs from standard quantum theory, requires a precise definition of state vector reduction. Formally speaking, any precise version of causal quantum theory defines a local hidden variable theory. However, causal quantum theory is most naturally seen as a variant of standard quantum theory. For that reason it seems a more serious rival to standard quantum theory than local hidden variable models relying on the locality or detector efficiency loopholes. Some plausible versions of causal quantum theory are not refuted by any Bell experiments to date, nor is it evident that they are inconsistent with other experiments. They evade refutation via a neglected loophole in Bell experiments--the collapse locality loophole--which exists because of the possible time lag between a particle entering a measurement device and a collapse taking place. Fairly definitive tests of causal versus standard quantum theory could be made by observing entangled particles separated by ≅0.1 light seconds

Causal inference in survival analysis using pseudo-observations.

Science.gov (United States)

Andersen, Per K; Syriopoulou, Elisavet; Parner, Erik T

2017-07-30

Causal inference for non-censored response variables, such as binary or quantitative outcomes, is often based on either (1) direct standardization ('G-formula') or (2) inverse probability of treatment assignment weights ('propensity score'). To do causal inference in survival analysis, one needs to address right-censoring, and often, special techniques are required for that purpose. We will show how censoring can be dealt with 'once and for all' by means of so-called pseudo-observations when doing causal inference in survival analysis. The pseudo-observations can be used as a replacement of the outcomes without censoring when applying 'standard' causal inference methods, such as (1) or (2) earlier. We study this idea for estimating the average causal effect of a binary treatment on the survival probability, the restricted mean lifetime, and the cumulative incidence in a competing risks situation. The methods will be illustrated in a small simulation study and via a study of patients with acute myeloid leukemia who received either myeloablative or non-myeloablative conditioning before allogeneic hematopoetic cell transplantation. We will estimate the average causal effect of the conditioning regime on outcomes such as the 3-year overall survival probability and the 3-year risk of chronic graft-versus-host disease. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Causal Bayes Model of Mathematical Competence in Kindergarten

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Božidar Tepeš

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper authors define mathematical competences in the kindergarten. The basic objective was to measure the mathematical competences or mathematical knowledge, skills and abilities in mathematical education. Mathematical competences were grouped in the following areas: Arithmetic and Geometry. Statistical set consisted of 59 children, 65 to 85 months of age, from the Kindergarten Milan Sachs from Zagreb. The authors describe 13 variables for measuring mathematical competences. Five measuring variables were described for the geometry, and eight measuring variables for the arithmetic. Measuring variables are tasks which children solved with the evaluated results. By measuring mathematical competences the authors make causal Bayes model using free software Tetrad 5.2.1-3. Software makes many causal Bayes models and authors as experts chose the model of the mathematical competences in the kindergarten. Causal Bayes model describes five levels for mathematical competences. At the end of the modeling authors use Bayes estimator. In the results, authors describe by causal Bayes model of mathematical competences, causal effect mathematical competences or how intervention on some competences cause other competences. Authors measure mathematical competences with their expectation as random variables. When expectation of competences was greater, competences improved. Mathematical competences can be improved with intervention on causal competences. Levels of mathematical competences and the result of intervention on mathematical competences can help mathematical teachers.

31 CFR 361.8 - Claim for replacement.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Claim for replacement. 361.8 Section... § 361.8 Claim for replacement. Claim for replacement shall be made in writing to the Secretary, to the..., Parkersburg, WV 26106-1328. The claim, accompanied by a recommendation regarding the manner of replacement...

Reserving by detailed conditioning on individual claim

Science.gov (United States)

Kartikasari, Mujiati Dwi; Effendie, Adhitya Ronnie; Wilandari, Yuciana

2017-03-01

The estimation of claim reserves is an important activity in insurance companies to fulfill their liabilities. Recently, reserving method of individual claim have attracted a lot of interest in the actuarial science, which overcome some deficiency of aggregated claim method. This paper explores the Reserving by Detailed Conditioning (RDC) method using all of claim information for reserving with individual claim of liability insurance from an Indonesian general insurance company. Furthermore, we compare it to Chain Ladder and Bornhuetter-Ferguson method.

A General Approach to Causal Mediation Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Imai, Kosuke; Keele, Luke; Tingley, Dustin

2010-01-01

Traditionally in the social sciences, causal mediation analysis has been formulated, understood, and implemented within the framework of linear structural equation models. We argue and demonstrate that this is problematic for 3 reasons: the lack of a general definition of causal mediation effects independent of a particular statistical model, the…

Causal knowledge and the development of inductive reasoning

OpenAIRE

Bright, Aimée K.; Feeney, Aidan

2014-01-01

We explored the development of sensitivity to causal relations in children’s inductive reasoning. Children (5-, 8-, and 12-year-olds) and adults were given trials in which they decided whether a property known to be possessed by members of one category was also possessed by members of (a) a taxonomically related category or (b) a causally related category. The direction of the causal link was either predictive (prey → predator) or diagnostic (predator → prey), and the property that participan...

32 CFR 842.43 - Filing a claim.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... completed Standard Form 95 or other signed and written demand for money damages in a sum certain. A claim... Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE CLAIMS AND LITIGATION ADMINISTRATIVE... amend a claim at any time prior to final action. To amend a claim, the claimant or his or her authorized...

Normalizing the causality between time series

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, X. San

2015-08-01

Recently, a rigorous yet concise formula was derived to evaluate information flow, and hence the causality in a quantitative sense, between time series. To assess the importance of a resulting causality, it needs to be normalized. The normalization is achieved through distinguishing a Lyapunov exponent-like, one-dimensional phase-space stretching rate and a noise-to-signal ratio from the rate of information flow in the balance of the marginal entropy evolution of the flow recipient. It is verified with autoregressive models and applied to a real financial analysis problem. An unusually strong one-way causality is identified from IBM (International Business Machines Corporation) to GE (General Electric Company) in their early era, revealing to us an old story, which has almost faded into oblivion, about "Seven Dwarfs" competing with a giant for the mainframe computer market.

Inference of boundaries in causal sets

Science.gov (United States)

Cunningham, William J.

2018-05-01

We investigate the extrinsic geometry of causal sets in (1+1) -dimensional Minkowski spacetime. The properties of boundaries in an embedding space can be used not only to measure observables, but also to supplement the discrete action in the partition function via discretized Gibbons–Hawking–York boundary terms. We define several ways to represent a causal set using overlapping subsets, which then allows us to distinguish between null and non-null bounding hypersurfaces in an embedding space. We discuss algorithms to differentiate between different types of regions, consider when these distinctions are possible, and then apply the algorithms to several spacetime regions. Numerical results indicate the volumes of timelike boundaries can be measured to within 0.5% accuracy for flat boundaries and within 10% accuracy for highly curved boundaries for medium-sized causal sets with N  =  214 spacetime elements.

Spatial hypersurfaces in causal set cosmology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Major, Seth A; Rideout, David; Surya, Sumati

2006-01-01

Within the causal set approach to quantum gravity, a discrete analogue of a spacelike region is a set of unrelated elements, or an antichain. In the continuum approximation of the theory, a moment-of-time hypersurface is well represented by an inextendible antichain. We construct a richer structure corresponding to a thickening of this antichain containing non-trivial geometric and topological information. We find that covariant observables can be associated with such thickened antichains and transitions between them, in classical sequential growth models of causal sets. This construction highlights the difference between the covariant measure on causal set cosmology and the standard sum-over-histories approach: the measure is assigned to completed histories rather than to histories on a restricted spacetime region. The resulting re-phrasing of the sum-over-histories may be fruitful in other approaches to quantum gravity

The Role of Documentation Quality in Anesthesia-Related Closed Claims: A Descriptive Qualitative Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilbanks, Bryan A; Geisz-Everson, Marjorie; Boust, Rebecca R

2016-09-01

Clinical documentation is a critical tool in supporting care provided to patients. Sound documentation provides a picture of clinical events that can be used to improve patient care. However, many other uses for clinical documentation are equally important. Such documentation informs clinical decision support tools, creates a legal record of patient care, assists in financial reimbursement of services, and serves as a repository for secondary data analysis. Conversely, poor documentation can impair patient safety and increase malpractice risk exposure by reflecting poor or inaccurate information that ultimately may guide patient care decisions.Through an examination of anesthesia-related closed claims, a descriptive qualitative study emerged, which explored the antecedents and consequences of documentation quality in the claims reviewed. A secondary data analysis utilized a database generated by the American Association of Nurse Anesthetists Foundation closed claim review team. Four major themes emerged from the analysis. Themes 1, 2, and 4 primarily describe how poor documentation quality can have negative consequences for clinicians. The third theme primarily describes how poor documentation quality that can negatively affect patient safety.

Analogy in causal inference: rethinking Austin Bradford Hill's neglected consideration.

Science.gov (United States)

Weed, Douglas L

2018-05-01

The purpose of this article was to rethink and resurrect Austin Bradford Hill's "criterion" of analogy as an important consideration in causal inference. In epidemiology today, analogy is either completely ignored (e.g., in many textbooks), or equated with biologic plausibility or coherence, or aligned with the scientist's imagination. None of these examples, however, captures Hill's description of analogy. His words suggest that there may be something gained by contrasting two bodies of evidence, one from an established causal relationship, the other not. Coupled with developments in the methods of systematic assessments of evidence-including but not limited to meta-analysis-analogy can be restructured as a key component in causal inference. This new approach will require that a collection-a library-of known cases of causal inference (i.e., bodies of evidence involving established causal relationships) be developed. This library would likely include causal assessments by organizations such as the International Agency for Research on Cancer, the National Toxicology Program, and the United States Environmental Protection Agency. In addition, a process for describing key features of a causal relationship would need to be developed along with what will be considered paradigm cases of causation. Finally, it will be important to develop ways to objectively compare a "new" body of evidence with the relevant paradigm case of causation. Analogy, along with all other existing methods and causal considerations, may improve our ability to identify causal relationships. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multichannel Signal Enhancement using Non-Causal, Time-Domain Filters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jesper Rindom; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll; Benesty, Jacob

2013-01-01

In the vast amount of time-domain filtering methods for speech enhancement, the filters are designed to be causal. Recently, however, it was shown that the noise reduction and signal distortion capabilities of such single-channel filters can be improved by allowing the filters to be non-causal. W......In the vast amount of time-domain filtering methods for speech enhancement, the filters are designed to be causal. Recently, however, it was shown that the noise reduction and signal distortion capabilities of such single-channel filters can be improved by allowing the filters to be non......-causal, multichannel filters for enhancement based on an orthogonal decomposition is proposed. The evaluation shows that there is a potential gain in noise reduction and signal distortion by introducing non-causality. Moreover, experiments on real-life speech show that we can improve the perceptual quality....

Elements of Causal Inference: Foundations and Learning Algorithms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Peters, Jonas Martin; Janzing, Dominik; Schölkopf, Bernhard

A concise and self-contained introduction to causal inference, increasingly important in data science and machine learning......A concise and self-contained introduction to causal inference, increasingly important in data science and machine learning...

Cointegration and Causality between Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: Case of Kyrgyzstan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raziye ABDIYEVA

2017-01-01

Full Text Available According to Wagner’s law there is unidirectional relationship from economic growth to public expenditure. Wagner’s states that increase of national income leads to faster growth of public expenditure. In other words, out of economic and social development in the country, people will demand more public goods and it will increase public expenditure at a faster rate than national income. This study is analyzing the long term and causality relationship between public expenditure and economic growth in Kyrgyzstan and tests the validity of Wagner's law in Kyrgyz economy by using an ARDL and Error Correction models over the period 1995 to 2014. Empirical results showed that there is an unidirectional causality relationship between economic growth and public expenditure in long term. Empirical evidence is support the validity of Wagner’s law in Kyrgyz economy.

A panel Granger-causality test of endogenous vs. exogenous growth

OpenAIRE

Jochen Hartwig

2009-01-01

The paper proposes a new test of endogenous vs. exogenous growth theories based on the Granger-causality methodology and applies it to a panel of 20 OECD countries. The test yields divergent evidence with respect to physical and human capital. For physical capital, the test results favor Solow-type exogenous growth theory over AK-type endogenous growth models. On the other hand, the test results lend support to human capital oriented endogenous growth models - like the Uzawa-Lucas model - rat...

Survey of malpractice claims in dermatology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Altman, J.

1975-01-01

A statistical survey of malpractice claims asserted against dermatologists was made. The subject matter of the claims was divided into eight major categories: drug reactions, x-ray burns, poor cosmetic result following surgery, poor cosmetic result following medication, failure to diagnose cancer, improper diagnosis, infection from treatment, and miscellaneous. The study showed that a group of ''serious'' damage cases, which accounted for 34 percent of total claims, generated 94 percent of total dollar losses. The problem areas for malpractice claims appeared to be drug reactions, cosmetic chemosurgery, and failure to diagnose cancer. (U.S.)

Counterfactual overdetermination vs. the causal exclusion problem.

Science.gov (United States)

Sparber, Georg

2005-01-01

This paper aims to show that a counterfactual approach to causation is not sufficient to provide a solution to the causal exclusion problem in the form of systematic overdetermination. Taking into account the truthmakers of causal counterfactuals provides a strong argument in favour of the identity of causes in situations of translevel, causation.

Non-Bayesian Inference: Causal Structure Trumps Correlation

Science.gov (United States)

Bes, Benedicte; Sloman, Steven; Lucas, Christopher G.; Raufaste, Eric

2012-01-01

The study tests the hypothesis that conditional probability judgments can be influenced by causal links between the target event and the evidence even when the statistical relations among variables are held constant. Three experiments varied the causal structure relating three variables and found that (a) the target event was perceived as more…

37 CFR 7.12 - Claim of color.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Claim of color. 7.12 Section... § 7.12 Claim of color. (a) If color is claimed as a feature of the mark in the basic application and/or registration, the international application must include a statement that color is claimed as a...

Causal biological network database: a comprehensive platform of causal biological network models focused on the pulmonary and vascular systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Boué, Stéphanie; Talikka, Marja; Westra, Jurjen Willem; Hayes, William; Di Fabio, Anselmo; Park, Jennifer; Schlage, Walter K; Sewer, Alain; Fields, Brett; Ansari, Sam; Martin, Florian; Veljkovic, Emilija; Kenney, Renee; Peitsch, Manuel C; Hoeng, Julia

2015-01-01

With the wealth of publications and data available, powerful and transparent computational approaches are required to represent measured data and scientific knowledge in a computable and searchable format. We developed a set of biological network models, scripted in the Biological Expression Language, that reflect causal signaling pathways across a wide range of biological processes, including cell fate, cell stress, cell proliferation, inflammation, tissue repair and angiogenesis in the pulmonary and cardiovascular context. This comprehensive collection of networks is now freely available to the scientific community in a centralized web-based repository, the Causal Biological Network database, which is composed of over 120 manually curated and well annotated biological network models and can be accessed at http://causalbionet.com. The website accesses a MongoDB, which stores all versions of the networks as JSON objects and allows users to search for genes, proteins, biological processes, small molecules and keywords in the network descriptions to retrieve biological networks of interest. The content of the networks can be visualized and browsed. Nodes and edges can be filtered and all supporting evidence for the edges can be browsed and is linked to the original articles in PubMed. Moreover, networks may be downloaded for further visualization and evaluation. Database URL: http://causalbionet.com © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Causality and complexity: the myth of objectivity in science.

Science.gov (United States)

Mikulecky, Donald C

2007-10-01

Two distinctly different worldviews dominate today's thinking in science and in the world of ideas outside of science. Using the approach advocated by Robert M. Hutchins, it is possible to see a pattern of interaction between ideas in science and in other spheres such as philosophy, religion, and politics. Instead of compartmentalizing these intellectual activities, it is worthwhile to look for common threads of mutual influence. Robert Rosen has created an approach to scientific epistemology that might seem radical to some. However, it has characteristics that resemble ideas in other fields, in particular in the writings of George Lakoff, Leo Strauss, and George Soros. Historically, the atmosphere at the University of Chicago during Hutchins' presidency gave rise to Rashevsky's relational biology, which Rosen carried forward. Strauss was writing his political philosophy there at the same time. One idea is paramount in all this, and it is Lakoff who gives us the most insight into how the worldviews differ using this idea. The central difference has to do with causality, the fundamental concept that we use to build a worldview. Causal entailment has two distinct forms in Lakoff 's analysis: direct causality and complex causality. Rosen's writings on complexity create a picture of complex causality that is extremely useful in its detail, grounding in the ideas of Aristotle. Strauss asks for a return to the ancients to put philosophy back on track. Lakoff sees the weaknesses in Western philosophy in a similar way, and Rosen provides tools for dealing with the problem. This introduction to the relationships between the thinking of these authors is meant to stimulate further discourse on the role of complex causal entailment in all areas of thought, and how it brings them together in a holistic worldview. The worldview built on complex causality is clearly distinct from that built around simple, direct causality. One important difference is that the impoverished causal

Are the correct herbal claims by Hildegard von Bingen only lucky strikes? A new statistical approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Uehleke, Bernhard; Hopfenmueller, Werner; Stange, Rainer; Saller, Reinhard

2012-01-01

Ancient and medieval herbal books are often believed to describe the same claims still in use today. Medieval herbal books, however, provide long lists of claims for each herb, most of which are not approved today, while the herb's modern use is often missing. So the hypothesis arises that a medieval author could have randomly hit on 'correct' claims among his many 'wrong' ones. We developed a statistical procedure based on a simple probability model. We applied our procedure to the herbal books of Hildegard von Bingen (1098- 1179) as an example for its usefulness. Claim attributions for a certain herb were classified as 'correct' if approximately the same as indicated in actual monographs. The number of 'correct' claim attributions was significantly higher than it could have been by pure chance, even though the vast majority of Hildegard von Bingen's claims were not 'correct'. The hypothesis that Hildegard would have achieved her 'correct' claims purely by chance can be clearly rejected. The finding that medical claims provided by a medieval author are significantly related to modern herbal use supports the importance of traditional medicinal systems as an empirical source. However, since many traditional claims are not in accordance with modern applications, they should be used carefully and analyzed in a systematic, statistics-based manner. Our statistical approach can be used for further systematic comparison of herbal claims of traditional sources as well as in the fields of ethnobotany and ethnopharmacology. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Causal Relations and Feature Similarity in Children's Inductive Reasoning

Science.gov (United States)

Hayes, Brett K.; Thompson, Susan P.

2007-01-01

Four experiments examined the development of property induction on the basis of causal relations. In the first 2 studies, 5-year-olds, 8-year-olds, and adults were presented with triads in which a target instance was equally similar to 2 inductive bases but shared a causal antecedent feature with 1 of them. All 3 age groups used causal relations…

Causality and subjectivity in discourse : The meaning and use of causal connectives in spontaneous conversation, chat interactions and written text

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sanders, T.J.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/075243911; Spooren, W.P.M.S.

Many languages of the world have connectives to express causal relations at the discourse level. Often, language users systematically prefer one lexical item (because) over another (even highly similar) one (since) to express a causal relationship. Such choices provide a window on speakers'

Ergonomic and socioeconomic risk factors for hospital workers' compensation injury claims.

Science.gov (United States)

Boyer, Jon; Galizzi, Monica; Cifuentes, Manuel; d'Errico, Angelo; Gore, Rebecca; Punnett, Laura; Slatin, Craig

2009-07-01

Hospital workers are a diverse population with high rates of musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs). The risk of MSD leading to workers' compensation (WC) claims is likely to show a gradient by socioeconomic status (SES) that may be partly explained by working conditions. A single community hospital provided workforce demographics and WC claim records for 2003-2005. An ergonomic job exposure matrix (JEM) was developed for these healthcare jobs from direct observation of physical workload and extraction of physical and psychosocial job requirements from the O*NET online database. Occupational exposures and SES categories were assigned to workers through their O*NET job titles. Univariate and multivariate Poisson regression analyses were performed to estimate the propensity to file an injury claim in relation to individual factors, occupational exposures, and SES. The jobs with the highest injury rates were nurses, semi-professionals, and semi-skilled. Increased physical work and psychological demands along with low job tenure were associated with an increase in risk, while risk decreased with psychosocial rewards and supervisor support. Both occupational and individual factors mediated the relationship between SES and rate of injury claims. Physical and organizational features of these hospital jobs along with low job tenure predicted WC injury claim risk and explained a substantial proportion of the effects of SES. Further studies that include lifestyle risk factors and control for prior injuries and co-morbidities are warranted to strengthen the current study findings.

Campbell's and Rubin's Perspectives on Causal Inference

Science.gov (United States)

West, Stephen G.; Thoemmes, Felix

2010-01-01

Donald Campbell's approach to causal inference (D. T. Campbell, 1957; W. R. Shadish, T. D. Cook, & D. T. Campbell, 2002) is widely used in psychology and education, whereas Donald Rubin's causal model (P. W. Holland, 1986; D. B. Rubin, 1974, 2005) is widely used in economics, statistics, medicine, and public health. Campbell's approach focuses on…

Testing a Model of Diabetes Self-Care Management: A Causal Model Analysis with LISREL.

Science.gov (United States)

Nowacek, George A.; And Others

1990-01-01

A diabetes-management model is presented, which includes an attitudinal element and depicts relationships among causal elements. LISREL-VI was used to analyze data from 115 Type-I and 105 Type-II patients. The data did not closely fit the model. Results support the importance of the personal meaning of diabetes. (TJH)

The role of health-related claims and symbols in consumer behaviour

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hieke, Sophie; Cascanette, Tamara; Pravst, Igor; Kaur, Asha; Trijp, Van Hans; Verbeke, Wim; Grunert, Klaus G.

2016-01-01

Health claims and symbols are a convenient tool when it comes to the marketing of foods and they should, in theory, support consumers in making informed food choices, ideally in choosing healthier food products. However, not much is known about their actual impact on consumer behaviour. CLYMBOL

Increasing fMRI sampling rate improves Granger causality estimates.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fa-Hsuan Lin

Full Text Available Estimation of causal interactions between brain areas is necessary for elucidating large-scale functional brain networks underlying behavior and cognition. Granger causality analysis of time series data can quantitatively estimate directional information flow between brain regions. Here, we show that such estimates are significantly improved when the temporal sampling rate of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI is increased 20-fold. Specifically, healthy volunteers performed a simple visuomotor task during blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD contrast based whole-head inverse imaging (InI. Granger causality analysis based on raw InI BOLD data sampled at 100-ms resolution detected the expected causal relations, whereas when the data were downsampled to the temporal resolution of 2 s typically used in echo-planar fMRI, the causality could not be detected. An additional control analysis, in which we SINC interpolated additional data points to the downsampled time series at 0.1-s intervals, confirmed that the improvements achieved with the real InI data were not explainable by the increased time-series length alone. We therefore conclude that the high-temporal resolution of InI improves the Granger causality connectivity analysis of the human brain.

12 CFR 627.2750 - Priority of claims-banks.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

...) All claims for taxes. (f) All claims of creditors which are secured by specific assets or equities of... accordance with priorities of applicable Federal or State law. (g) All claims of holders of bonds issued by... claims of holders of consolidated and System-wide bonds and all claims of the other Farm Credit banks...

Inference of Boundaries in Causal Sets

OpenAIRE

Cunningham, William

2017-01-01

We investigate the extrinsic geometry of causal sets in $(1+1)$-dimensional Minkowski spacetime. The properties of boundaries in an embedding space can be used not only to measure observables, but also to supplement the discrete action in the partition function via discretized Gibbons-Hawking-York boundary terms. We define several ways to represent a causal set using overlapping subsets, which then allows us to distinguish between null and non-null bounding hypersurfaces in an embedding space...

Consumers' Views Regarding Health Claims on Food Packages. Contextual Analysis by Means of Computer Support

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eva Gunilla Svederberg

2002-01-01

Full Text Available Several studies have shown consumers to generally have only a limited understanding of the nutritional information on packaged-food labels. This suggests it is difficult for them to select properly between different foods on the basis of such information. As a basis for information on the requirements of groups of consumers, the present study aimed at investigating how, when presented with health claims and other nutritional information on the labels of food products, consumers' thinking about foods is affected by various background factors as well as by various types of food-related experiences. Semi-structured interviews of 30 consumers in Sweden—men and women aged 25 to 64, with and without food-related health problems—were carried out. The interviews were tape-recorded and were transcribed word-for-word. In the analysis of the interview data, the qualitative methodology of contextual analysis was utilised. For the purpose of method development, the computer programme Atlas.ti was used to support the analysis. The objective of this article is to show step by step how the analysis was carried out. In connection with the analysis, some results are presented. However, the focus in the article is on methodology. The conclusion drawn is that Atlas.ti has qualities that can facilitate the contextual analysis of the interview data. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0201109

Characteristics of claims in the management of septic arthritis in Japan: Retrospective analyses of judicial precedents and closed claims.

Science.gov (United States)

Otaki, Yasuhiro; DaSilva, Makiko Ishida; Saito, Yuichi; Oyama, Yasuaki; Oiso, Giichiro; Yoshida, Tomohiko; Fukuhara, Masakazu; Moriyama, Mitsuru

2018-03-01

Septic arthritis (SA) cases can result in claims or litigation because of poor prognosis even if it is unavoidable. Although these claims or litigation are useful for understanding causes and background factors of medical errors, the characteristics of malpractice claims associated with SA remain undetermined in Japan. This study aimed to increase our understanding of malpractice claims in the clinical management of SA. We analyzed 6 civil precedents and 16 closed claims of SA from 8530 malpractice claims processed between July 2004 and June 2014 by the Tokyo office of Sompo Japan Nipponkoa Insurance, Incorporated. We also studied 5 accident and 21 incident reports of SA based on project data compiled by the Japan Council for Quality Health Care. The rate of negligence was 83.3% in the precedents and 75.0% in closed claims. Two main malpractice claim patterns were revealed: SA in a lower extremity joint following sepsis caused by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in newborns and SA in an injection site following joint injection. These two patterns accounted for 83.3% and 56.3% of judicial cases and closed claim cases, respectively. Breakdowns in care process of accident and incident reports were clearly differentiated from judicial cases or closed claim cases (Fisher's exact test, p < 0.001). It is important to pay particular attention to SA following sepsis in newborns and to monitor for any signs of SA after joint injection to ensure early diagnosis. Analysis of both malpractice claims and accident and incident reports is essential to ensure a full understanding of the situation in Japan. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Taiwan LLC.

Causality and prediction: differences and points of contact

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis Carlos Silva Ayçaguer, PhD

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This contribution presents the differences between those variables that might play a causal role in a certain process and those only valuable for predicting the outcome. Some considerations are made about the core intervention of the association and the temporal precedence and biases in both cases, the study of causality and predictive modeling. In that context, several relevant aspects related to the design of the corresponding studies are briefly reviewed and some of the mistakes that are often committed in handling both, causality and prediction, are illustrated.

Cortical hierarchies perform Bayesian causal inference in multisensory perception.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tim Rohe

2015-02-01

Full Text Available To form a veridical percept of the environment, the brain needs to integrate sensory signals from a common source but segregate those from independent sources. Thus, perception inherently relies on solving the "causal inference problem." Behaviorally, humans solve this problem optimally as predicted by Bayesian Causal Inference; yet, the underlying neural mechanisms are unexplored. Combining psychophysics, Bayesian modeling, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI, and multivariate decoding in an audiovisual spatial localization task, we demonstrate that Bayesian Causal Inference is performed by a hierarchy of multisensory processes in the human brain. At the bottom of the hierarchy, in auditory and visual areas, location is represented on the basis that the two signals are generated by independent sources (= segregation. At the next stage, in posterior intraparietal sulcus, location is estimated under the assumption that the two signals are from a common source (= forced fusion. Only at the top of the hierarchy, in anterior intraparietal sulcus, the uncertainty about the causal structure of the world is taken into account and sensory signals are combined as predicted by Bayesian Causal Inference. Characterizing the computational operations of signal interactions reveals the hierarchical nature of multisensory perception in human neocortex. It unravels how the brain accomplishes Bayesian Causal Inference, a statistical computation fundamental for perception and cognition. Our results demonstrate how the brain combines information in the face of uncertainty about the underlying causal structure of the world.

Nutrition labelling, marketing techniques, nutrition claims and health claims on chip and biscuit packages from sixteen countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Mayhew, Alexandra J; Lock, Karen; Kelishadi, Roya; Swaminathan, Sumathi; Marcilio, Claudia S; Iqbal, Romaina; Dehghan, Mahshid; Yusuf, Salim; Chow, Clara K

2016-04-01

Food packages were objectively assessed to explore differences in nutrition labelling, selected promotional marketing techniques and health and nutrition claims between countries, in comparison to national regulations. Cross-sectional. Chip and sweet biscuit packages were collected from sixteen countries at different levels of economic development in the EPOCH (Environmental Profile of a Community's Health) study between 2008 and 2010. Seven hundred and thirty-seven food packages were systematically evaluated for nutrition labelling, selected promotional marketing techniques relevant to nutrition and health, and health and nutrition claims. We compared pack labelling in countries with labelling regulations, with voluntary regulations and no regulations. Overall 86 % of the packages had nutrition labels, 30 % had health or nutrition claims and 87 % displayed selected marketing techniques. On average, each package displayed two marketing techniques and one health or nutrition claim. In countries with mandatory nutrition labelling a greater proportion of packages displayed nutrition labels, had more of the seven required nutrients present, more total nutrients listed and higher readability compared with those with voluntary or no regulations. Countries with no health or nutrition claim regulations had fewer claims per package compared with countries with regulations. Nutrition label regulations were associated with increased prevalence and quality of nutrition labels. Health and nutrition claim regulations were unexpectedly associated with increased use of claims, suggesting that current regulations may not have the desired effect of protecting consumers. Of concern, lack of regulation was associated with increased promotional marketing techniques directed at children and misleadingly promoting broad concepts of health.

PPARalpha siRNA-treated expression profiles uncover the causal sufficiency network for compound-induced liver hypertrophy.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xudong Dai

2007-03-01

Full Text Available Uncovering pathways underlying drug-induced toxicity is a fundamental objective in the field of toxicogenomics. Developing mechanism-based toxicity biomarkers requires the identification of such novel pathways and the order of their sufficiency in causing a phenotypic response. Genome-wide RNA interference (RNAi phenotypic screening has emerged as an effective tool in unveiling the genes essential for specific cellular functions and biological activities. However, eliciting the relative contribution of and sufficiency relationships among the genes identified remains challenging. In the rodent, the most widely used animal model in preclinical studies, it is unrealistic to exhaustively examine all potential interactions by RNAi screening. Application of existing computational approaches to infer regulatory networks with biological outcomes in the rodent is limited by the requirements for a large number of targeted permutations. Therefore, we developed a two-step relay method that requires only one targeted perturbation for genome-wide de novo pathway discovery. Using expression profiles in response to small interfering RNAs (siRNAs against the gene for peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor alpha (Ppara, our method unveiled the potential causal sufficiency order network for liver hypertrophy in the rodent. The validity of the inferred 16 causal transcripts or 15 known genes for PPARalpha-induced liver hypertrophy is supported by their ability to predict non-PPARalpha-induced liver hypertrophy with 84% sensitivity and 76% specificity. Simulation shows that the probability of achieving such predictive accuracy without the inferred causal relationship is exceedingly small (p < 0.005. Five of the most sufficient causal genes have been previously disrupted in mouse models; the resulting phenotypic changes in the liver support the inferred causal roles in liver hypertrophy. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of defining pathways mediating drug

Whose statistical reasoning is facilitated by a causal structure intervention?

Science.gov (United States)

McNair, Simon; Feeney, Aidan

2015-02-01

People often struggle when making Bayesian probabilistic estimates on the basis of competing sources of statistical evidence. Recently, Krynski and Tenenbaum (Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 136, 430-450, 2007) proposed that a causal Bayesian framework accounts for peoples' errors in Bayesian reasoning and showed that, by clarifying the causal relations among the pieces of evidence, judgments on a classic statistical reasoning problem could be significantly improved. We aimed to understand whose statistical reasoning is facilitated by the causal structure intervention. In Experiment 1, although we observed causal facilitation effects overall, the effect was confined to participants high in numeracy. We did not find an overall facilitation effect in Experiment 2 but did replicate the earlier interaction between numerical ability and the presence or absence of causal content. This effect held when we controlled for general cognitive ability and thinking disposition. Our results suggest that clarifying causal structure facilitates Bayesian judgments, but only for participants with sufficient understanding of basic concepts in probability and statistics.

Modeling of causality with metamaterials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smolyaninov, Igor I

2013-01-01

Hyperbolic metamaterials may be used to model a 2 + 1-dimensional Minkowski space–time in which the role of time is played by one of the spatial coordinates. When a metamaterial is built and illuminated with a coherent extraordinary laser beam, the stationary pattern of light propagation inside the metamaterial may be treated as a collection of particle world lines, which represents a complete ‘history’ of this 2 + 1-dimensional space–time. While this model may be used to build interesting space–time analogs, such as metamaterial ‘black holes’ and a metamaterial ‘big bang’, it lacks causality: since light inside the metamaterial may propagate back and forth along the ‘timelike’ spatial coordinate, events in the ‘future’ may affect events in the ‘past’. Here we demonstrate that a more sophisticated metamaterial model may fix this deficiency via breaking the mirror and temporal (PT) symmetries of the original model and producing one-way propagation along the ‘timelike’ spatial coordinate. The resulting 2 + 1-dimensional Minkowski space–time appears to be causal. This scenario may be considered as a metamaterial model of the Wheeler–Feynman absorber theory of causality. (paper)

76 FR 36176 - Fully Developed Claim (Fully Developed Claims-Applications for Compensation, Pension, DIC, Death...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-21

... DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS [OMB Control No. 2900-0747] Fully Developed Claim (Fully Developed Claims--Applications for Compensation, Pension, DIC, Death Pension, and/or Accrued Benefits); Correction AGENCY: Veterans Benefits Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs. ACTION: Notice; correction...

Cross-lagged relations between mentoring received from supervisors and employee OCBs: Disentangling causal direction and identifying boundary conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Eby, Lillian T; Butts, Marcus M; Hoffman, Brian J; Sauer, Julia B

2015-07-01

Although mentoring has documented relationships with employee attitudes and outcomes of interest to organizations, neither the causal direction nor boundary conditions of the relationship between mentoring and organizational citizenship behaviors (OCBs) has been fully explored. On the basis of Social Learning Theory (SLT; Bandura, 1977, 1986), we predicted that mentoring received by supervisors would causally precede OCBs, rather than employee OCBs resulting in the receipt of more mentoring from supervisors. Results from cross-lagged data collected at 2 points in time from 190 intact supervisor-employee dyads supported our predictions; however, only for OCBs directed at individuals (OCB-Is) and not for OCBs directed at the organization (OCB-Os). Further supporting our theoretical rationale for expecting mentoring to precede OCBs, we found that coworker support operates as a substitute for mentoring in predicting OCB-Is. By contrast, no moderating effects were found for perceived organizational support. The results are discussed in terms of theoretical implications for mentoring and OCB research, as well as practical suggestions for enhancing employee citizenship behaviors. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Electricity consumption-real GDP causality nexus: Evidence from a bootstrapped causality test for 30 OECD countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Prasad, Arti

2008-01-01

The goal of this paper is to examine any causal effects between electricity consumption and real GDP for 30 OECD countries. We use a bootstrapped causality testing approach and unravel evidence in favour of electricity consumption causing real GDP in Australia, Iceland, Italy, the Slovak Republic, the Czech Republic, Korea, Portugal, and the UK. The implication is that electricity conservation policies will negatively impact real GDP in these countries. However, for the rest of the 22 countries our findings suggest that electricity conversation policies will not affect real GDP

Using Medicaid and CHIP claims data to support pediatric quality measurement: lessons from 3 centers of excellence in measure development.

Science.gov (United States)

Gidengil, Courtney; Mangione-Smith, Rita; Bailey, L Charles; Cawthon, Mary Lawrence; McGlynn, Elizabeth A; Nakamura, Mari M; Schiff, Jeffrey; Schuster, Mark A; Schneider, Eric C

2014-01-01

We sought to explore the claims data-related issues relevant to quality measure development for Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), illustrating the challenges encountered and solutions developed around 3 distinct performance measure topics: care coordination for children with complex needs, quality of care for high-prevalence conditions, and hospital readmissions. Each of 3 centers of excellence presents an example that illustrates the challenges of using claims data for quality measurement. Our Centers of Excellence in pediatric quality measurement used innovative methods to develop algorithms that use Medicaid claims data to identify children with complex needs; overcome some shortcomings of existing data for measuring quality of care for common conditions such as otitis media; and identify readmissions after hospitalizations for lower respiratory infections. Our experience constructing quality measure specifications using claims data suggests that it will be challenging to measure key quality of care constructs for Medicaid-insured children at a national level in a timely and consistent way. Without better data to underpin pediatric quality measurement, Medicaid and CHIP will have difficulty using some existing measures for accountability, value-based purchasing, and quality improvement both across states and within states. Copyright © 2014 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The causal role of fatigue in the stress-perceived health relationship: a MetroNet study.

Science.gov (United States)

Maghout-Juratli, Sham; Janisse, James; Schwartz, Kendra; Arnetz, Bengt B

2010-01-01

We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 4 primary care MetroNet centers in metropolitan Detroit. Our objective was to describe the causal role of fatigue in the relationship among stress, stress resiliency, and perceived health in primary care. Fatigue is a public health problem that has been linked to stress and poor health. The causal role of fatigue between stress and perceived health is unknown. Four hundred surveys were distributed to adult patients in 4 primary care centers in metropolitan Detroit between 2006 and 2007. Internal consistency reliabilities and principal factor analyses were calculated for the key psychological scales. Perceived health is the primary outcome. Path models were used to study the relationship among stress, fatigue, and perceived health. We also modeled the impact of select stress resiliency factors including sleep, recovery, and social support. Of the 400 distributed surveys, 315 (78.7%) had a response rate of 70% or more and were included in the analysis. Respondents were predominantly middle aged (median age, 43 years); female (58.7%); and African American (52.0%). The majority worked full time (56.5%); did not have a college degree (77.7%); and were not married (55.2%). Fatigue was reported by 59% of respondents, 42.7% of which was unexplained. The path model supported the causal role of fatigue between stress and perceived health. The positive effects of sleep, recovery, and social support on fatigue, stress, and perceived health were validated. Fatigue was common in this metropolitan primary care environment and completely mediated the relationship between stress and poor perceived health. Therefore, stress, when significant enough to cause fatigue, may lead to poor health.

Non-Causal Time-Domain Filters for Single-Channel Noise Reduction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jesper Rindom; Benesty, Jacob; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll

2012-01-01

suppression and signal distortion by allowing the filters to be non-causal. Non-causal time-domain filters require knowledge of the future, and are therefore not directly implementable. If the observed signal is processed in blocks, however, the non-causal filters are implementable. In this paper, we propose...

Number and cost of claims linked to minor cervical trauma in Europe: results from the comparative study by CEA, AREDOC and CEREDOC.

Science.gov (United States)

Chappuis, Guy; Soltermann, Bruno

2008-10-01

different cultural attitudes and medical approach to the problem including diagnosis. In Switzerland, therefore, new ways must be found to try to resolve the problem. The claims treatment model known as "Case Management" represents a new approach in which accelerated social and professional reintegration of the injured party is attempted. The CEA study emphasizes the fundamental role of medicine in that it postulates a clear division between the role of the attending physician and the medical expert. It also draws attention to the need to train medical professionals in the insurance business to the extent that they can interact adequately with insurance professionals. The results of this study indicate that the usefulness of the criterion of so-called typical clinical symptoms, which is at present applied by the courts to determine natural causality and has long been under debate, is inappropriate and should be replaced by objective assessment (e.g. accident and biomechanical analysis). In addition, the legal concept of adequate causality should be interpreted in the same way in both third party liability and social security law, which is currently not the case.

Causal Effect Inference with Deep Latent-Variable Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Louizos, C; Shalit, U.; Mooij, J.; Sontag, D.; Zemel, R.; Welling, M.

2017-01-01

Learning individual-level causal effects from observational data, such as inferring the most effective medication for a specific patient, is a problem of growing importance for policy makers. The most important aspect of inferring causal effects from observational data is the handling of

Causal inference in survival analysis using pseudo-observations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Per K; Syriopoulou, Elisavet; Parner, Erik T

2017-01-01

Causal inference for non-censored response variables, such as binary or quantitative outcomes, is often based on either (1) direct standardization ('G-formula') or (2) inverse probability of treatment assignment weights ('propensity score'). To do causal inference in survival analysis, one needs ...

Nature of Medical Malpractice Claims Against Radiation Oncologists

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marshall, Deborah; Tringale, Kathryn [Department of Radiation Medicine and Applied Sciences, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California (United States); Connor, Michael [Department of Radiation Medicine and Applied Sciences, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California (United States); University of California Irvine School of Medicine, Irvine, California (United States); Punglia, Rinaa [Department of Radiation Oncology, Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Recht, Abram [Department of Radiation Oncology, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Hattangadi-Gluth, Jona, E-mail: jhattangadi@ucsd.edu [Department of Radiation Medicine and Applied Sciences, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California (United States)

2017-05-01

Purpose: To examine characteristics of medical malpractice claims involving radiation oncologists closed during a 10-year period. Methods and Materials: Malpractice claims filed against radiation oncologists from 2003 to 2012 collected by a nationwide liability insurance trade association were analyzed. Outcomes included the nature of claims and indemnity payments, including associated presenting diagnoses, procedures, alleged medical errors, and injury severity. We compared the likelihood of a claim resulting in payment in relation to injury severity categories (death as referent) using binomial logistic regression. Results: There were 362 closed claims involving radiation oncology, 102 (28%) of which were paid, resulting in $38 million in indemnity payments. The most common alleged errors included “improper performance” (38% of closed claims, 18% were paid; 29% [$11 million] of total indemnity), “errors in diagnosis” (25% of closed claims, 46% were paid; 44% [$17 million] of total indemnity), and “no medical misadventure” (14% of closed claims, 8% were paid; less than 1% [$148,000] of total indemnity). Another physician was named in 32% of claims, and consent issues/breach of contract were cited in 18%. Claims for injury resulting in death represented 39% of closed claims and 25% of total indemnity. “Improper performance” was the primary alleged error associated with injury resulting in death. Compared with claims involving death, major temporary injury (odds ratio [OR] 2.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.29-5.85, P=.009), significant permanent injury (OR 3.1, 95% CI 1.48-6.46, P=.003), and major permanent injury (OR 5.5, 95% CI 1.89-16.15, P=.002) had a higher likelihood of a claim resulting in indemnity payment. Conclusions: Improper performance was the most common alleged malpractice error. Claims involving significant or major injury were more likely to be paid than those involving death. Insights into the nature of liability claims against

Causal Indicators Can Help to Interpret Factors

Science.gov (United States)

Bentler, Peter M.

2016-01-01

The latent factor in a causal indicator model is no more than the latent factor of the factor part of the model. However, if the causal indicator variables are well-understood and help to improve the prediction of individuals' factor scores, they can help to interpret the meaning of the latent factor. Aguirre-Urreta, Rönkkö, and Marakas (2016)…

QED representation for the net of causal loops

Science.gov (United States)

Ciolli, Fabio; Ruzzi, Giuseppe; Vasselli, Ezio

2015-06-01

The present work tackles the existence of local gauge symmetries in the setting of Algebraic Quantum Field Theory (AQFT). The net of causal loops, previously introduced by the authors, is a model independent construction of a covariant net of local C*-algebras on any 4-dimensional globally hyperbolic space-time, aimed to capture structural properties of any reasonable quantum gauge theory. Representations of this net can be described by causal and covariant connection systems, and local gauge transformations arise as maps between equivalent connection systems. The present paper completes these abstract results, realizing QED as a representation of the net of causal loops in Minkowski space-time. More precisely, we map the quantum electromagnetic field Fμν, not free in general, into a representation of the net of causal loops and show that the corresponding connection system and the local gauge transformations find a counterpart in terms of Fμν.

32 CFR 842.95 - Non-assertable claims.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... ADMINISTRATIVE CLAIMS Property Damage Tort Claims in Favor of the United States (31 U.S.C. 3701, 3711-3719) § 842...) Reimbursement for military or civilian employees for their negligence claims paid by the United States. (b) Loss...

Causal attributions of vineyard executives – A mental model study of vineyard management☆

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin FG Schaffernicht

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This article contributes a reference of causal attributions made by vineyard executives in Chile, where increasing costs and stagnating prices challenge the vineyards’ profits. The investigation was motivated by the question how executives interpret the industry's mid term future and how they reflect on steering their companies. Based on in-depth interviews, causal maps were elaborated to represent the executives’ mental models. These are represented as sequences of attributions, connecting variables by causal links. It was found that some mental models guide policies bound to increase the prices, whereas other models suggest taking the prices as givens and control costs. The collection of causal attributions of the vineyard executives (CAVE has been made publicly available. As a result, CAVE can be used by other management scholars to elicit other executives’ mental models and increase the data base available. Since such research will be cumulative, a minimum size for meaningful statistical analysis can be reached, opening up an avenue for improving the design of business policies. CAVE can also serve executives and consultants in constructing causal argumentations and business policies. Future research and development of supporting software are called for. Keywords: Mental models, Strategy, Business model

Causal learning is collaborative: Examining explanation and exploration in social contexts.

Science.gov (United States)

Legare, Cristine H; Sobel, David M; Callanan, Maureen

2017-10-01

Causal learning in childhood is a dynamic and collaborative process of explanation and exploration within complex physical and social environments. Understanding how children learn causal knowledge requires examining how they update beliefs about the world given novel information and studying the processes by which children learn in collaboration with caregivers, educators, and peers. The objective of this article is to review evidence for how children learn causal knowledge by explaining and exploring in collaboration with others. We review three examples of causal learning in social contexts, which elucidate how interaction with others influences causal learning. First, we consider children's explanation-seeking behaviors in the form of "why" questions. Second, we examine parents' elaboration of meaning about causal relations. Finally, we consider parents' interactive styles with children during free play, which constrains how children explore. We propose that the best way to understand children's causal learning in social context is to combine results from laboratory and natural interactive informal learning environments.

37 CFR 360.12 - Form and content of claims.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... SUBMISSION OF ROYALTY CLAIMS FILING OF CLAIMS TO ROYALTY FEES COLLECTED UNDER COMPULSORY LICENSE Satellite Claims § 360.12 Form and content of claims. (a) Forms. (1) Each claim to compulsory license royalty fees... owner entitled to claim the royalty fees. (ii) A general statement of the nature of the copyright owner...

37 CFR 360.3 - Form and content of claims.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... SUBMISSION OF ROYALTY CLAIMS FILING OF CLAIMS TO ROYALTY FEES COLLECTED UNDER COMPULSORY LICENSE Cable Claims § 360.3 Form and content of claims. (a) Forms. (1) Each claim to cable compulsory license royalty fees... copyright owner entitled to claim the royalty fees. (ii) A general statement of the nature of the copyright...

Human Papilloma Viruses and Breast Cancer - Assessment of Causality.

Science.gov (United States)

Lawson, James Sutherland; Glenn, Wendy K; Whitaker, Noel James

2016-01-01

High risk human papilloma viruses (HPVs) may have a causal role in some breast cancers. Case-control studies, conducted in many different countries, consistently indicate that HPVs are more frequently present in breast cancers as compared to benign breast and normal breast controls (odds ratio 4.02). The assessment of causality of HPVs in breast cancer is difficult because (i) the HPV viral load is extremely low, (ii) HPV infections are common but HPV associated breast cancers are uncommon, and (iii) HPV infections may precede the development of breast and other cancers by years or even decades. Further, HPV oncogenesis can be indirect. Despite these difficulties, the emergence of new evidence has made the assessment of HPV causality, in breast cancer, a practical proposition. With one exception, the evidence meets all the conventional criteria for a causal role of HPVs in breast cancer. The exception is "specificity." HPVs are ubiquitous, which is the exact opposite of specificity. An additional reservation is that the prevalence of breast cancer is not increased in immunocompromised patients as is the case with respect to HPV-associated cervical cancer. This indicates that HPVs may have an indirect causal influence in breast cancer. Based on the overall evidence, high-risk HPVs may have a causal role in some breast cancers.

Spacetime causality in the study of the Hankel tranform

CERN Document Server

Burnol, J

2006-01-01

We study Hilbert space aspects of the Klein-Gordon equation in two-dimensional spacetime. We associate to its restriction to a spacelike wedge a scattering from the past light cone to the future light cone, which is then shown to be (essentially) the Hankel transform of order zero. We apply this to give a novel proof, solely based on the causality of this spatio-temporal wave propagation, of the theorem of de~Branges and V.~Rovnyak concerning Hankel pairs with a support property. We recover their isometric expansion as an application of Riemann's general method for solving Cauchy-Goursat problems of hyperbolic type.

Causal Attribution and Coping Maxims Differences between Immigrants and Non-Immigrants Suffering from Back Pain in Switzerland.

Science.gov (United States)

Mantwill, Sarah; Schulz, Peter J

2016-01-01

This study aimed at investigating the relationship between causal attributions and coping maxims in people suffering from back pain. Further, it aimed at identifying in how far causal attributions and related coping maxims would defer between immigrants and non-immigrants in Switzerland. Data for this study came from a larger survey study that was conducted among immigrant populations in the German- and Italian-speaking part of Switzerland. Included in the analyses were native Swiss participants, as well as Albanian- and Serbian-speaking immigrants, who had indicated to have suffered from back pain within the last 12 months prior to the study. Data was analyzed for overall 495 participants. Items for causal attributions and coping maxims were subject to factor analyses. Cultural differences were assessed with ANOVA and regression analyses. Interaction terms were included to investigate whether the relationship between causal attributions and coping maxims would differ with cultural affiliation. For both immigrant groups the physician's influence on the course of their back pain was more important than for Swiss participants (p immigrant groups were more likely to agree with maxims that were related to the improvement of the back pain, as well as the acceptance of the current situation (p immigrants and non-immigrants exist. Further, the results support the assumption of an association between causal attribution and coping maxims. However cultural affiliation did not considerably moderate this relationship.

Causality and skies: is non-refocussing necessary?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bautista, A; Ibort, A; Lafuente, J

2015-01-01

The causal structure of a strongly causal, null pseudo-convex, space-time M is completely characterized in terms of a partial order on its space of skies defined by means of a class of non-negative Legendrian isotopies called sky isotopies. It is also shown that such partial order is determined by the class of future causal celestial curves, that is, curves in the space of light rays which are tangent to skies and such that they determine non-negative sky isotopies. It will also be proved that the space of skies Σ equipped with Low’s (or reconstructive) topology is homeomorphic and diffeomorphic to M under the only additional assumption that M separates skies, that is, that different events determine different skies. The sky-separating property of M is sharp and the previous result provides an answer to the question about the class of space-times whose causal structure, topological and differentiable structure can be reconstructed from their spaces of light rays and skies. These results can be understood as a Malament–Hawking-like theorem stated in terms of the partial order defined on the space of skies. (paper)

A quantum probability model of causal reasoning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer S Trueblood

2012-05-01

Full Text Available People can often outperform statistical methods and machine learning algorithms in situations that involve making inferences about the relationship between causes and effects. While people are remarkably good at causal reasoning in many situations, there are several instances where they deviate from expected responses. This paper examines three situations where judgments related to causal inference problems produce unexpected results and describes a quantum inference model based on the axiomatic principles of quantum probability theory that can explain these effects. Two of the three phenomena arise from the comparison of predictive judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of an effect given a cause with diagnostic judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of a cause given an effect. The third phenomenon is a new finding examining order effects in predictive causal judgments. The quantum inference model uses the notion of incompatibility among different causes to account for all three phenomena. Psychologically, the model assumes that individuals adopt different points of view when thinking about different causes. The model provides good fits to the data and offers a coherent account for all three causal reasoning effects thus proving to be a viable new candidate for modeling human judgment.

Scalar field Green functions on causal sets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nomaan Ahmed, S; Surya, Sumati; Dowker, Fay

2017-01-01

We examine the validity and scope of Johnston’s models for scalar field retarded Green functions on causal sets in 2 and 4 dimensions. As in the continuum, the massive Green function can be obtained from the massless one, and hence the key task in causal set theory is to first identify the massless Green function. We propose that the 2d model provides a Green function for the massive scalar field on causal sets approximated by any topologically trivial 2-dimensional spacetime. We explicitly demonstrate that this is indeed the case in a Riemann normal neighbourhood. In 4d the model can again be used to provide a Green function for the massive scalar field in a Riemann normal neighbourhood which we compare to Bunch and Parker’s continuum Green function. We find that the same prescription can also be used for de Sitter spacetime and the conformally flat patch of anti-de Sitter spacetime. Our analysis then allows us to suggest a generalisation of Johnston’s model for the Green function for a causal set approximated by 3-dimensional flat spacetime. (paper)

Causal Scale of Rotors in a Cardiac System

Science.gov (United States)

Ashikaga, Hiroshi; Prieto-Castrillo, Francisco; Kawakatsu, Mari; Dehghani, Nima

2018-04-01

Rotors of spiral waves are thought to be one of the potential mechanisms that maintain atrial fibrillation (AF). However, disappointing clinical outcomes of rotor mapping and ablation to eliminate AF raise a serious doubt on rotors as a macro-scale mechanism that causes the micro-scale behavior of individual cardiomyocytes to maintain spiral waves. In this study, we aimed to elucidate the causal relationship between rotors and spiral waves in a numerical model of cardiac excitation. To accomplish the aim, we described the system in a series of spatiotemporal scales by generating a renormalization group, and evaluated the causal architecture of the system by quantifying causal emergence. Causal emergence is an information-theoretic metric that quantifies emergence or reduction between micro- and macro-scale behaviors of a system by evaluating effective information at each scale. We found that the cardiac system with rotors has a spatiotemporal scale at which effective information peaks. A positive correlation between the number of rotors and causal emergence was observed only up to the scale of peak causation. We conclude that rotors are not the universal mechanism to maintain spiral waves at all spatiotemporal scales. This finding may account for the conflicting benefit of rotor ablation in clinical studies.

32 CFR Appendix to Part 281 - Claims Description

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... advance decision functions for claims under the following statutes: (a) 31 U.S.C. 3702, concerning claims... SETTLING PERSONNEL AND GENERAL CLAIMS AND PROCESSING ADVANCE DECISION REQUESTS Pt. 281, App. Appendix to... Personnel Management performs these functions for claims involving civilian employees' compensation and...

42 CFR 456.722 - Electronic claims management system.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... Electronic Claims Management System for Outpatient Drug Claims § 456.722 Electronic claims management system...'s Medicaid Management Information System (MMIS) applicable to prescription drugs. (ii) Notifying the... 42 Public Health 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Electronic claims management system. 456.722...

Norms and customs: causally important or causally impotent?

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Todd

2010-01-01

In this article, I argue that norms and customs, despite frequently being described as being causes of behavior in the social sciences and ordinary conversation, cannot really cause behavior. Terms like "norms" and the like seem to refer to philosophically disreputable disjunctive properties. More problematically, even if they do not, or even if there can be disjunctive properties after all, I argue that norms and customs still cannot cause behavior. The social sciences would be better off without referring to properties like norms and customs as if they could be causal.