Coordination of Supply Chain with a Dominant Retailer under Demand Disruptions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian Li

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We develop a coordination model of a one-manufacturer multi-retailers supply chain with a dominant retailer. We consider the impact of a dominant retailer on the market retail price and his sales promotion opportunity and examine how the manufacturer can coordinate such a supply chain by revenue-sharing contract after demand disruptions. We address the following important research questions in this paper. (i How do we design an appropriate revenue-sharing contract to coordinate the supply chain with a dominant retailer without demand disruptions? (ii When demand is disrupted with variations in market scale and price sensitive coefficient, can the original contract still be valid? (iii How do the demand disruptions affect the coordination mechanism under different disruption scenarios and how should the new contract change? Finally, we generate important insights by both analytical and numerical examples.

Disruption management in a two-period three-tier electronics supply chain

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Johannes Danusantoso

2016-12-01

Full Text Available We study strategies to manage demand disruptions in a three-tier electronics supply chain consisting of an Electronics Manufacturing Services provider, an Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM, and a Retailer. We model price sensitivity of consumer demand with the two functions commonly used for this purpose, linear and exponential, and introduce disruptions in the demand function. We assume each supply chain member faces an increasing marginal unit cost function. Our decentralized supply chain setting is governed by a wholesale price contract. The OEM possesses greater bargaining power and therefore is the Stackelberg leader. A penalty cost incurred by the Retailer is introduced to capture the cost of deviation from the original plan. We find exact analytical solutions of the effectiveness of managing the disruption when the consumer demand function is linear, and we provide numerical examples as an illustration when the consumer demand function is either linear or exponential. We show that the original production quantity exhibits some robustness under disruptions in both centralized and decentralized supply chains, while the original optimal pricing does not. We show that supply chain managers should not automatically react to an individual disruption, in certain cases it is best to leave the production plan unchanged.

Analysis of Supply Chain Risk Management Strategies: Case Study of Supply Chain Disruptions

OpenAIRE

Marcelo Dias Carvalho; Leticia Ishikawa

2016-01-01

Supply Chain Risk Management refers to a set of strategies used by companies to avoid supply chain disruption caused by damage at production facilities, natural disasters, capacity issues, inventory problems, incorrect forecasts, and delays. Many companies use the techniques of the Toyota Production System, which in a way goes against a better management of supply chain risks. This paper studies key events in some multinationals to analyze the trade-off between the best supply chain risk mana...

Modelling inter-supply chain competition with resource limitation and demand disruption

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Zhaobo; Teng, Chunxian; Zhang, Ding; Sun, Jiayi

2016-05-01

This paper proposes a comprehensive model for studying supply chain versus supply chain competition with resource limitation and demand disruption. We assume that there are supply chains with heterogeneous supply network structures that compete at multiple demand markets. Each supply chain is comprised of internal and external firms. The internal firms are coordinated in production and distribution and share some common but limited resources within the supply chain, whereas the external firms are independent and do not share the internal resources. The supply chain managers strive to develop optimal strategies in terms of production level and resource allocation in maximising their profit while facing competition at the end market. The Cournot-Nash equilibrium of this inter-supply chain competition is formulated as a variational inequality problem. We further study the case when there is demand disruption in the plan-execution phase. In such a case, the managers need to revise their planned strategy in order to maximise their profit with the new demand under disruption and minimise the cost of change. We present a bi-criteria decision-making model for supply chain managers and develop the optimal conditions in equilibrium, which again can be formulated by another variational inequality problem. Numerical examples are presented for illustrative purpose.

Cost Consequences of a Port-Related Supply Chain Disruption

OpenAIRE

Hui Shan LOH; Vinh Van THAI

2015-01-01

Port functionality is a significant and important aspect of cargo transportation. Previous studies have identified a list of port-related supply chain disruption threats and developed a management model that seeks to address these threats. This paper adds value to these related studies by comparing four consequences of an example of these threats: (1) avoidance of disruption, (2) mitigation of disruption, (3) deviation of transportation plan and (4) delays and deviation of transportation plan...

Decision on risk-averse dual-channel supply chain under demand disruption

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Bo; Jin, Zijie; Liu, Yanping; Yang, Jianbo

2018-02-01

We studied dual-channel supply chains using centralized and decentralized decision-making models. We also conducted a comparative analysis of the decisions before and after demand disruption. The study shows that the amount of change in decision-making is a linear function of the amount of demand disruption, and it is independent of the risk-averse coefficient. The optimal sales volume decision of the disturbing supply chain is related to market share and demand disruption in the decentralized decision-making model. The optimal decision is only influenced by demand disruption in the centralized decision-making model. The stability of the sales volume of the two models is related to market share and demand disruption. The optimal system production of the two models shows robustness, but their stable internals are different.

Analysis of Product Complexity considering Disruption Cost in Fast Fashion Supply Chain

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Shaheen Sardar

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Outsourcing in the textile industry has been playing an important role in the global economy for six decades. Recently, reshoring is an emerging trend due to various complexities involved in supply chain management. As compared with basic textile and apparel products, fast fashion products are complex in their own way. A single assortment contains several new styles, colors, and sizes with unpredictable demand and urgent deadlines. Numerous assortments run simultaneously in the supply chain. For each assortment, the garment manufacturer has to source various types of fabrics and materials from different suppliers and then manufacture the garments to ship within the deadlines. This complexity contributes to supply chain disruption. This paper develops a model to estimate supply chain disruption cost as a function of fast fashion product complexity in the global outsourcing environment. Estimation of disruption cost will help us to increase visibility and eliminate the bottlenecks in supply chain. Model conclusions are used to develop a method to manage the level of product complexity from the global supply chain perspective. Several strategies are proposed to manage the impact of product complexity on supply chain design.

Understanding your supply chain to reduce the risk of supply chain disruption.

Science.gov (United States)

Wildgoose, Nick; Brennan, Patrick; Thompson, Simon

2012-01-01

Supply chains are at the heart of the way in which organisations operate and compete today; they also play a critical role in overall organisation performance. In the context of increasingly complex and global supply chains, the actions taken to drive down costs are likely to drive risk into the supply chain. The frequency of supply chain disruptions is high and this paper offers practical advice to help reduce the frequency and cost associated with these. There is advice to help with the understanding of how to identify critical suppliers. The reader is guided through comprehensive risk assessment and mitigation approaches and a selection of practical risk solutions and tools that you can use is described. There is a section on the 'dos and don'ts' relating to supplier due diligence. For those organisations facing the challenge of drawing up a business case relating to investment in improving supply chain resiliency, there is also a section outlining some of the business benefits of improving supply chain resiliency.

Measuring the influence of industry sector membership on supply chain disruption reporting.

Science.gov (United States)

Alcantara, Patrick

2015-01-01

The global Supply Chain Resilience Survey by the Business Continuity Institute and Zurich Insurance is a comprehensive study on the state of supply chains in different organisations worldwide. As a benchmarking tool, it also contains data about business continuity arrangements in place to ensure supply chain resilience. Given this study's historically qualitative approach to reporting, this paper aims to introduce quantitative analysis. In this paper, responses that report membership in Standard Industrial Classification 2007 industry sectors from the 2013 Supply Chain Resilience Survey were disaggregated and related to supply chain disruption reporting. A chi-square test of independence reveals that membership in a particular industry sector influences reporting of supply chain disruption. Nonetheless, the relationship between these variables is weak. This study demonstrates interesting differences between industry sectors in terms of supply chain resilience. Further research is required in terms of other variables in order to provide granularity and relevant findings to supply chain planners.

Understanding and reducing the risk of supply chain disruptions.

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Graham

2012-01-01

Natural disasters can wreck havoc on business operations. When civil unrest swept the UK in August 2011, the effect on business was stark, losing the retail sector £300m in unexpected costs and lost revenues. On the other side of the world, the natural disaster that hit Japan in early 2011 is estimated to have run up costs in the region of £189bn in repairs. Beyond this, the earthquake and its aftermath shattered supply chains, with technology companies expecting delays of up to six months before business could resume fully. It is impossible to predict incidents like these, but businesses can help mitigate disruption in the supply chain by undertaking business continuity management (BCM). A flexible supply chain is essential when it comes to BCM - whether it means being able to cope with altering transport routes at short notice, or finding or replacing a supplier at the last minute. Understanding the supply chain is critical when responding to major impacts that affect supply chains in multiple points - like IT system failures and country-wide fuel strikes. Businesses should carry out detailed business impact assessments and risk assessments right across the end-to-end supply chain and not just at key single points of failure. It is an intensive process that needs dedicated resources and ownership at the highest level. Recognising this, DHL has designed a 10-step process, which it has implemented across its global supply chain business. This paper provides an overview of what a supply chain really looks like, what can cause disruptions and how far up/down the supply chain companies need to go with their BCM planning.

A stochastic inventory management model for a dual sourcing supply chain with disruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Iakovou, Eleftherios; Vlachos, Dimitrios; Xanthopoulos, Anastasios

2010-03-01

As companies continue to globalise their operations and outsource significant portion of their value chain activities, they often end up relying heavily on order replenishments from distant suppliers. The explosion in long-distance sourcing is exposing supply chains and shareholder value at ever increasing operational and disruption risks. It is well established, both in academia and in real-world business environments, that resource flexibility is an effective method for hedging against supply chain disruption risks. In this contextual framework, we propose a single period stochastic inventory decision-making model that could be employed for capturing the trade-off between inventory policies and disruption risks for an unreliable dual sourcing supply network for both the capacitated and uncapacitated cases. Through the developed model, we obtain some important managerial insights and evaluate the merit of contingency strategies in managing uncertain supply chains.

3D Printing and Its Disruptive Impacts on Supply Chains of the Future

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Sebastian Mohr

2015-11-01

Full Text Available 3D printing technology has emerged as one of the most disruptive innovations to impact the global supply chain and logistics industry. The technology is impacting our personal and professional lives, with some claiming that the technology will revolutionize and replace existing manufacturing technologies, while others argue that the technology merely enhances some aspects of the production process. Whether evolutionary or revolutionary, 3D printing technology is recognized as a striking trend that will significantly impact supply chains. Although the expansion of 3D printing in the private consumer market is an interesting development in its own right, the biggest potential for disruption lies in industrial applications and how 3D printing will influence supply chains of the future. In this article, we examine the areas of the supply chain most likely to be disrupted by 3D printing technology and we identify the key questions that must be answered in a roadmap for future research and practice. While we seek answers to these questions, we suggest that managers should develop a flexible change management strategy to mitigate the effects of disruption to their future supply chains and take advantage of the resulting opportunities. Those that do nothing will be left wanting, because the influence of 3D printing technology on supply chains is expected to grow.

Designing a Supply Chain Network under the Risk of Disruptions

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Armin Jabbarzadeh

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper studies a supply chain design problem with the risk of disruptions at facilities. At any point of time, the facilities are subject to various types of disruptions caused by natural disasters, man-made defections, and equipment breakdowns. We formulate the problem as a mixed-integer nonlinear program which maximizes the total profit for the whole system. The model simultaneously determines the number and location of facilities, the subset of customers to serve, the assignment of customers to facilities, and the cycle-order quantities at facilities. In order to obtain near-optimal solutions with reasonable computational requirements for large problem instances, two solution methods based on Lagrangian relaxation and genetic algorithm are developed. The effectiveness of the proposed solution approaches is shown using numerical experiments. The computational results, in addition, demonstrate that the benefits of considering disruptions in the supply chain design model can be significant.

Backup Sourcing Decisions for Coping with Supply Disruptions under Long-Term Horizons

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Jing Hou

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper studies a buyer’s inventory control problem under a long-term horizon. The buyer has one major supplier that is prone to disruption risks and one backup supplier with higher wholesale price. Two kinds of sourcing methods are available for the buyer: single sourcing with/without contingent supply and dual sourcing. In contingent sourcing, the backup supplier is capacitated and/or has yield uncertainty, whereas in dual sourcing the backup supplier has an incentive to offer output flexibility during disrupted periods. The buyer’s expected cost functions and the optimal base-stock levels using each sourcing method under long-term horizon are obtained, respectively. The effects of three risk parameters, disruption probability, contingent capacity or uncertainty, and backup flexibility, are examined using comparative studies and numerical computations. Four sourcing methods, namely, single sourcing with contingent supply, dual sourcing, and single sourcing from either of the two suppliers, are also compared. These findings can be used as a valuable guideline for companies to select an appropriate sourcing strategy under supply disruption risks.

Cost-effective strategy to mitigate transportation disruptions in supply chain

Science.gov (United States)

Albertzeth, G.; Pujawan, I. N.

2018-04-01

Supply chain disruptions have gained significant attention by scholars. But, even though transportation plays a central role in supply chain, only few studies address transportation disruptions. This research demonstrates a real case of an order delivery process from a focal company (FC) to a single distributor, where transportation disruptions stochastically occurs. Considering the possibility of sales loss during the disruption duration, we proposed a redundant stock, flexible route, and combined flexibility-redundancy (ReFlex) as mitigation strategies and a base case as a risk acceptance strategy. The objective is to find out the best strategy that promotes cost-effectiveness against transportation disruptions. To fulfill this objective, we use simulation modeling and cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) as our research method. We simulate the delivery process of 5 brands using each strategy to produce two different responses: loss of sales percentage and the incurred costs. Next, using these responses, we evaluate and compare the cost-effectiveness ratio of each strategy using CEA. We found that redundant stock gave the best effectiveness on all brands, ReFlex as the second best, while flexible route gave the least effectiveness. Finally, we recommend which strategy should be applied based on the decision maker willingness to pay.

Reliable Biomass Supply Chain Design under Feedstock Seasonality and Probabilistic Facility Disruptions

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Zhixue Liu

2017-11-01

Full Text Available While biomass has been recognized as an important renewable energy source which has a range of positive impacts on the economy, environment, and society, the existence of feedstock seasonality and risk of service disruptions at collection facilities potentially compromises the efficiency and reliability of the energy supply system. In this paper, we consider reliable supply chain design for biomass collection against feedstock seasonality and time-varying disruption risks. We optimize facility location, inventory, biomass quantity, and shipment decisions in a multi-period planning horizon setting. A real-world case in Hubei, China is studied to offer managerial insights. Our computational results show that: (1 the disruption risk significantly affects both the optimal facility locations and the supply chain cost; (2 no matter how the failure probability changes, setting backup facilities can significantly decrease the total cost; and (3 the feedstock seasonality does not affect locations of the collection facilities, but it affects the allocations of collection facilities and brings higher inventory cost for the biomass supply chain.

All quiet on the eastern front? Disruption scenarios of Russian natural gas supply to Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richter, Philipp M.; Holz, Franziska

2015-01-01

The 2014 Russian–Ukrainian crisis reignited European concerns about natural gas supply security recalling the experiences of 2006 and 2009. However, the European supply situation, regulation and infrastructure have changed, with better diversified import sources, EU member states being better connected and a common regulation on the security of supply has been introduced. Nevertheless, European dependency on natural gas remained high. This paper investigates different Russian natural gas export disruptions scenarios and analyses short- and long-term reactions in Europe. We use the Global Gas Model (GGM), a large-scale mixed complementarity representation of the natural gas sector with a high level of technical granularity with respect to storage and transportation infrastructure. While we find that most of the EU member states are not severely affected by Russian disruptions, some East European countries are very vulnerable. Prioritizing the removal of infrastructure bottlenecks is critical for securing a sufficient natural gas supply to all EU member states. - Highlights: • We analyze disruption scenarios of Russian natural gas exports to Europe. • Most EU countries are only weakly affected by a complete Russian supply disruption. • We find that Eastern Europe is vulnerable to Russian supply disruptions. • We identify infrastructure bottlenecks in the European natural gas network. • We find that the large EU LNG import capacity is not sufficiently connected

Implications of the Tohoku earthquake for Toyota's coordination mechanism: Supply chain disruption of automotive semiconductors

OpenAIRE

Matsuo, Hirofumi

2015-01-01

The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake damaged severely and extensively a large geographical area and caused devastating disruptions to the industrial supply chains in Japan. This paper focuses on a case of supply disruption of the automotive microcontroller units, which were produced by Renesas Electronics and supplied to Toyota via its first tier vendors like Denso. The first purpose of this paper is to describe, from a supply chain management view point, what happened and what actions these companies ...

Sourcing and pricing strategies for two retailers in a decentralized supply chain system under supply disruption

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M.A. Azarmehr

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the decentralized supply chain with two suppliers and two competing retailers. It also investigates the sourcing and pricing strategies of two retailers in a decentralized supply chain system under a supply disruption environment. These retailers face their individual stochastic demand markets; however, they compete with each other through a two-stage price and service operation. The interactive dynamics among retailers is characterized, including the existence and uniqueness of the Nash Equilibrium in service and price games demonstrated.

Rare earths: Market disruption, innovation, and global supply chains

Science.gov (United States)

Eggert, Roderick; Wadia, Cyrus; Anderson, Corby; Bauer, Diana; Fields, Fletcher; Meinert, Lawrence D.; Taylor, Patrick

2016-01-01

Rare earths, sometimes called the vitamins of modern materials, captured public attention when their prices increased more than ten-fold in 2010 and 2011. As prices fell between 2011 and 2016, rare earths receded from public view—but less visibly they became a major focus of innovative activity in companies, government laboratories and universities. Geoscientists worked to better understand the resource base and improve our knowledge about mineral deposits that will be mines in the future. Process engineers carried out research that is making primary production and recycling more efficient. Materials scientists and engineers searched for substitutes that will require fewer or no rare earths while providing properties comparable or superior to those of existing materials. As a result, even though global supply chains are not significantly different now than they were before the market disruption, the innovative activity motivated by the disruption likely will have far-reaching, if unpredictable, consequences for supply chains of rare earths in the future.

Optimal Management of Supply Disruptions when Contracting with Unreliable, Risk-averse, Suppliers

OpenAIRE

Parlane, Sarah; Tsai, Ying-Yi

2017-01-01

This paper investigates the optimal management of supply disruptions by a manufacturer who uses order inflation and/or investments in process reliability when contracting two risk-averse suppliers. We consider that these investments can be subject to moral hazard. Technically we solve a newsvendor optimization problem using a random capacity model of disruption. In such a model, the order size does not affect the average production but impacts the probability of disruption. When investments a...

Informed Principal Model and Contract in Supply Chain with Demand Disruption Asymmetric Information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huan Zhang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Because of the frequency and disastrous influence, the supply chain disruption has caused extensive concern both in the industry and in the academia. In a supply chain with one manufacturer and one retailer, the demand of the retailer is uncertain and meanwhile may suffer disruption with a probability. Taking the demand disruption probability as the retailer’s asymmetric information, an informed principal model with the retailer as the principal is explored to make the contract. The retailer can show its information to the manufacturer through the contract. It is found out that the high-risk retailer intends to pretend to be the low-risk one. So the separating contract is given through the low-information-intensity allocation, in which the order quantity and the transferring payment for the low-risk retailer distort upwards, but those of high-risk retailer do not distort. In order to reduce the signaling cost which the low-risk retailer pays, the interim efficient model is introduced, which ends up with the order quantity and transferring payment distorting upwards again but less than before. In the numerical examples, with two different mutation probabilities, the informed principal contracts show the application of the informed principal model in the supply chain with demand disruption.

The identification of zones of amplification of disruptions in network supply chains of metallurgic products

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M. Kramarz

2015-01-01

Full Text Available An increase in the number of participants in a supply chain and network relations results in an increase in the complexity of the entire logistic and production system. Consequently, there appear additional potential sources of disruptions in material flows. The aim of the research presented in the article is to identify the zones of amplification of disruptions in network supply chains of metallurgic products.

The effects of different supply chain integration strategies under disruptions : A simulation study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhu, Quan; Krikke, Harold; Caniels, M.C.J.; Pawar, K.S.; Rogers, H.; Ferrari, E.

2015-01-01

Complex and tightly coupled supply chains are more vulnerable to disruptions. To alleviate the harmful impacts, supply chain integration (SCI) has been highlighted by recent literatures. However, such literatures primarily focus on a general or mixed view of SCI rather than separately looking at SCI

The Effects of Extended Water Supply Disruptions on the Operations ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

kirstam

or extended water supply disruptions on the operations of small and medium enterprises ... negatively affected. The results of this study give a better perspective ... water scarcity, which has a detrimental impact on livelihoods and business. 2The incidence of ...... to make contingency plans for their production. Planning for ...

Food supply chain disruption due to natural disaster: Entities, risks and strategies for resilience

Science.gov (United States)

The resilience of food supply chain (FSC) to disruptions has not kept pace with the extended, globalized and complex network of modern food chain. This chapter presents a holistic view of the FSC, interactions among its components, risks and vulnerabilities of disruption in the context of natural d...

The Effect of Supply Disruptions on Customer Service Levels: a Case for Delivering Fertilizer Products using Maritime Transportation

Science.gov (United States)

Siswanto, N.; Kurniawati, U.; Wiratno, S. E.; Rusdiansyah, A.

2018-04-01

Delivering a product to customers can have a series of activities. It starts with the production of the product and then transporting it to the customers. However, uncontrollable and undesirable chance of disruption can occur during the delivery either at the production facility/supply side or in the process of transporting the product. Many researches has been conducting in the process of delivering the product. However not many considers these disruptions, although the disruptions has negative impacts on company such as reduce the profit, produce unbalanced inventory, and affect its reputation. This research will focus on the effect of supply disruption on customer service levels in the maritime transportation problem in order to maintain inventory level both in the supply and destination warehouses during predetermined planning horizon. The system considered consists of one loading port and two discharge ports for distributing one product. By using discrete event simulation, the result showed that supply disruption affects unbalanced inventory in the destination warehouses so that it will also influence company’s service level. The results show that there is a significant decreasing both in delivery service level, about 14%, and production service level, about 15% when the disruption occurs. A scenario to increase production rate is simulated to improved the service level.

Dual-Recycling Channel Decision in a Closed-Loop Supply Chain with Cost Disruptions

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Yanting Huang

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates cost disruptions of new and remanufactured products in a closed-loop supply chain where a manufacturer and a third-party collector recycle used products through online-recycling and offline-recycling channels, respectively. We use a Stackelberg game to acquire the equilibrium decisions of dual-recycling and single-recycling channels and analyze how cost disruptions affect the manufacturer’ production and collection strategies. We show that, cost disruption of new products produces a positive impact whilst the remanufacturing cost disruption has a negative impact on collection quantity of used products and negative cost disruptions of both new and remanufactured products could be profitable to the manufacturer. As for the manufacturer’s channel choice, the dual-recycling channel dominates single-recycling channels when new product cost faces positive disruption, because the manufacturer acts as both a buyer and a competitor to the collector and can determine an appropriate acquisition price and transfer price to coordinate the online-offline recycling channel. While if cost disruption of new products is negative, the manufacturer prefers the dual-recycling channel instead of single-recycling channels only if the remanufacturing cost faces large size of negative disruption.

Dynamic replenishment, production, and pricing decisions in the face of supply disruption and random price-sensitive demand

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhu, Stuart X.

2013-01-01

We study a joint decision problem for replenishment, production, pricing strategies in the face of both supply and demand uncertainties. The supply of the raw material suffers from a potential supply disruption while the demand for the finished goods is price-sensitive and random. We assume that the

A multi-objective reliable programming model for disruption in supply chain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emran Mohammadi

2013-05-01

Full Text Available One of the primary concerns on supply chain management is to handle risk components, properly. There are various reasons for having risk in supply chain such as natural disasters, unexpected incidents, etc. When a series of facilities are built and deployed, one or a number of them could probably fail at any time due to bad weather conditions, labor strikes, economic crises, sabotage or terrorist attacks and changes in ownership of the system. The objective of risk management is to reduce the effects of different domains to an acceptable level. To overcome the risk, we propose a reliable capacitated supply chain network design (RSCND model by considering random disruptions risk in both distribution centers and suppliers. The proposed study of this paper considers three objective functions and the implementation is verified using some instance.

Handling Disruptions in Supply Chains : An Integrated Framework and an Agent-based Model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Behdani, B.

2013-01-01

The degree of supply chain risk faced by many companies has risen dramatically and the impact of disruptions can cascade easily across companies’ and countries’ borders. To handle this increased vulnerability, systematic approaches and decision making tools are needed to provide support in managing

False security: the effects of long-term oil supply disruptions in a slack oil market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kah, M; Kruvant, W J

1984-01-01

The authors contention that the US should continue to be concerned about energy emergency preparedness, in the event of a long-term disruption of oil supplies, despite current slack economic conditions on the international market is outlined. One quarter of the world's total supply still comes from politically volatile areas of North Africa and the Middle East, and although oil imports have fallen off, the US is still vulnerable.

Demonstrating the Effect of Supply Chain Disruptions through an Online Beer Distribution Game

Science.gov (United States)

Sarkar, Sourish; Kumar, Sanjay

2016-01-01

This article describes a classroom tool to teach the impact of supply chain disruptions and mitigation strategies based on information sharing and collaboration. The tool is an adaptation of the Beer Distribution Game, is easy to play, and can be hosted online or on local servers. The game considers several scenarios based on the location of the…

An analysis of disruptions in aerospace/defense organizations that affect the supply chain

Science.gov (United States)

Dickerson, Toscha L.

The purpose of this quantitative study was to determine whether or not functions of procurement organizations structures' and aerospace suppliers were perceived as disruptions and to identify their effects on lead time and costs within a supply chain. An analysis of employees' perception of centralized and decentralized procurement functions, aerospace and defense suppliers, lead times of goods and services, price increases, and schedule delays was conducted. Prior studies are limited in regards to understanding how specific procurement functions affects an organization procurement structure. This non-experimental quantitative study allowed for a survey to be administered to aerospace and defense companies throughout the United States to obtain information from sourcing and procurement professionals with 5 or more years of experience. The current study utilized a 10 question survey based on the 5- point Likert -type scale to determine the findings. Through descriptive and inferential statistics, using regression analysis, standard deviation, and P-value; findings indicated that the majority of the participants surveyed perceived both centralized and decentralized procurement functions affected lead time and cost of goods and services resulted in a positive effect and were considered as supply chain disruptions.

Hydropower plans in eastern and southern Africa increase risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption

Science.gov (United States)

Conway, Declan; Dalin, Carole; Landman, Willem A.; Osborn, Timothy J.

2017-12-01

Hydropower comprises a significant and rapidly expanding proportion of electricity production in eastern and southern Africa. In both regions, hydropower is exposed to high levels of climate variability and regional climate linkages are strong, yet an understanding of spatial interdependences is lacking. Here we consider river basin configuration and define regions of coherent rainfall variability using cluster analysis to illustrate exposure to the risk of hydropower supply disruption of current (2015) and planned (2030) hydropower sites. Assuming completion of the dams planned, hydropower will become increasingly concentrated in the Nile (from 62% to 82% of total regional capacity) and Zambezi (from 73% to 85%) basins. By 2030, 70% and 59% of total hydropower capacity will be located in one cluster of rainfall variability in eastern and southern Africa, respectively, increasing the risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption in each region. Linking of nascent regional electricity sharing mechanisms could mitigate intraregional risk, although these mechanisms face considerable political and infrastructural challenges.

Supply chain design approaches for supply chain resilience: A qualitative study of South African fast-moving consumer goods grocery manufacturers

OpenAIRE

Assilah Agigi; Wesley Niemann; Theuns Kotzé

2016-01-01

Orientation: In today’s globalised and complex business environment, firms are ever more vulnerable to supply chain disruptions, originating both internally and externally from the supply chain. Supply chain resilience minimises the impact of a disruption through design approaches, which allows the supply chain to respond appropriately to disruptive events. Research purpose: This article investigated the supply chain risks faced by grocery manufacturers in the South African fast-moving co...

Energy crisis management: ways to cope with disruption in oil supply

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kanoh, T

1981-03-10

The causes and impacts of past oil-supply disruptions are examined in terms of the effectiveness of management strategies used to deal with the crisis. Progress is noted in the recent decline of US imports, augmented oil stockpiles, a turnaway from the spot market, oil self-sufficiency for Britain, conservation programs in France, price decontrol in Canada, and alternative energy projects in Japan. The International Energy Agency (IEA) plans to develop an emergency scheme that first seeks to minimize the chance of a crisis arising and then to minimize adverse impacts should one occur. The first part of the strategy incorporates demand management, increased energy production, cooperation between producing and consuming countries, and political stability. The emergency measures for dealing with an actual crisis will emphasize life and safety. 15 references. (DCK)

Multistage Logistic Network Optimization under Disruption Risk

OpenAIRE

Rusman, Muhammad

2013-01-01

Getting over disruptions risk has been a challenging issue for many companies under the globalization that will link to potential external source such as demand uncertainties, natural disasters, and terrorist attacks. The disruption is an unexpected event that disturbs normal flows of products and materials within a supply chain. The disruption at one members of supply chain will propagate the offers and finally affect significant impacts on the entire chain. If we look back...

Effects of Disruption Risks on Biorefinery Location Design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yun Bai

2015-02-01

Full Text Available While ever-growing bio-ethanol production poses considerable challenges to the bioenergy supply chain, the risk of refinery operation disruptions further compromises the efficiency and reliability of the energy supply system. This paper applies discrete and continuous reliable facility location models to the design of reliable bio-ethanol supply chains so that the system can hedge against potential operational disruptions. The discrete model is shown to be suitable for obtaining the exact optimality for small or moderate instances, while the continuous model has superior computational tractability for large-scale applications. The impacts of both site-independent and dependent disruptions (i.e., due to flooding are analyzed in empirical case study for the State of Illinois (one of the main biomass supply states in the U.S.. The reliable solution is compared with a deterministic solution under the same setting. It is found that refinery disruptions, especially those site-dependent ones, affect both optimal refinery deployment and the supply chain cost. Sensitivity analysis is also conducted to show how refinery failure probability and fixed cost (for building biorefineries affect optimal supply chain configuration and the total expected system cost.

Endocrine disrupting compounds in drinking water supply system and human health risk implication.

Science.gov (United States)

Wee, Sze Yee; Aris, Ahmad Zaharin

2017-09-01

To date, experimental and epidemiological evidence of endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) adversely affecting human and animal populations has been widely debated. Notably, human health risk assessment is required for risk mitigation. The lack of human health risk assessment and management may thus unreliably regulate the quality of water resources and efficiency of treatment processes. Therefore, drinking water supply systems (DWSSs) may be still unwarranted in assuring safe access to potable drinking water. Drinking water supply, such as tap water, is an additional and crucial route of human exposure to the health risks associated with EDCs. A holistic system, incorporating continuous research in DWSS monitoring and management using multi-barrier approach, is proposed as a preventive measure to reduce human exposure to the risks associated with EDCs through drinking water consumption. The occurrence of EDCs in DWSSs and corresponding human health risk implications are analyzed using the Needs, Approaches, Benefits, and Challenges (NABC) method. Therefore, this review may act as a supportive tool in protecting human health and environmental quality from EDCs, which is essential for decision-making regarding environmental monitoring and management purposes. Subsequently, the public could have sustainable access to safer and more reliable drinking water. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Supply chain design approaches for supply chain resilience: A qualitative study of South African fast-moving consumer goods grocery manufacturers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Assilah Agigi

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Orientation: In today’s globalised and complex business environment, firms are ever more vulnerable to supply chain disruptions, originating both internally and externally from the supply chain. Supply chain resilience minimises the impact of a disruption through design approaches, which allows the supply chain to respond appropriately to disruptive events. Research purpose: This article investigated the supply chain risks faced by grocery manufacturers in the South African fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG industry and explored supply chain design approaches that enable supply chain resilience. Motivation for the study: South African grocery manufacturers are faced with distinct risks. Whilst supply chain risk management studies have provided firms with certain guidelines to mitigate risk, supply chains are still vulnerable to unanticipated risks. Literature on supply chain resilience in the South African context is scant. The concept of supply chain resilience provides firms with strategies that are built into the supply chain that allow firms to react and recover swiftly from disruptions. Furthermore, supply chain resilience strategies assist firms in becoming less vulnerable to possible disruptions. Research design approach and method: This study was conducted by using a descriptive qualitative research design. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with senior supply chain practitioners specifically within the South African FMCG grocery manufacturing industry. Main findings: The study found that labour unrest is the most common risk faced by the industry. Furthermore, strategic stock and supply chain mapping are of the most useful design approaches to enhance supply chain resilience. Practical/managerial implications: The study provides managers with new insights in guiding supply chain design decisions for resilient supply chains. Through the identification of risks and appropriate solutions linked to the various risks

The role of supply chain collaboration in supply chain risk mitigation

OpenAIRE

Chen, Jie

2017-01-01

In the last two decades, supply chain operations have changed drastically. Globalization of the market, shortened product life cycle, global outsourcing and offshoring, and increasing complexity of the supply base has resulted in modern supply chains becoming more vulnerable than ever. There are also more frequent natural or man-made disasters which disrupt the supply chain operations. All these have led to higher exposure of risks of supply chains and the failure to manage the...

Three-Level Supply Chain Coordination under Disruptions Based on Revenue-Sharing Contract with Price Dependent Demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qinghua Pang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Considering the market demand is stochastic and dependent on price, this paper shows that the revenue-sharing contract could coordinate a three-level supply chain consisting of one manufacturer, one distributor, and one retailer under normal environment. However, the original revenue-sharing contract cannot coordinate the supply chain under disruptions in circumstances of certain incidents leading to significant changes in market demand and causing additional deviation costs. To solve the problem, this essay introduces two improved forms of revenue-sharing contract: a mixed contract form based on a quantity discount policy and a pure form, which are characterized by antidisruption ability. The model of improved revenue-sharing contract is optimized when the market demand is in the additive form or in the multiplicative form with price dependent demand. Formulas are given to calculate the optimal contract parameters. Finally, this essay demonstrates the accuracy of the model of improved revenue-sharing contract with the help of numerical examples.

Implementing Environmental Practices for Accomplishing Sustainable Green Supply Chain Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Minkyun Kim

2017-07-01

Full Text Available With the emergence of environmental protection as a global issue, implementing environmental practices for sustaining green supply chain management (GSCM has received a lot of attention. This study investigates the impact of integration with suppliers and supply disruption risk on environmental practices. It also examines the role of supplier integration and supply disruption risk on performance. Finally, it investigates the relationship between environmental practices and performance in order to sustain green supply chains. Based on 272 survey responses from supply and purchase managers, our research results support the positive impact of integration with suppliers and the negative impact of supply disruption risk on the adoption of environmental practices. Furthermore, they provide empirical evidence that environmental practices and integration with suppliers are positively associated with performance, while supply disruption risk is negatively associated with performance. This study identifies antecedents and establishes a research framework of GSCM. More importantly, it provides meaningful insights to managers regarding the implementation of environmental practices related to other supply chain practices for sustaining green supply chains.

Applying Best Supply Chain Practices to Humanitarian Relief

OpenAIRE

Russell, Roberta S.; Hiller, Janine S.

2015-01-01

With the growth in length and breadth of extended supply chains, more companies are employing risk management techniques and resilience planning to deal with burgeoning and costly supply chain disruptions. As companies can learn from humanitarian groups, so can humanitarian groups learn from industry how to respond, recover, and prepare for these disruptive events. This paper looks at industry leaders in supply chain risk management and explores how humanitarian supply chains can learn from i...

Towards a Disruptive Digital Platform Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kazan, Erol

that digital platforms leverage on three strategic design elements (i.e., business, architecture, and technology design) to create supportive conditions for facilitating disruption. To shed light on disruptive digital platforms, I opted for payment platforms as my empirical context and unit of analysis......Digital platforms are layered modular information technology architectures that support disruption. Digital platforms are particularly disruptive, as they facilitate the quick release of digital innovations that may replace established innovations. Yet, despite their support for disruption, we have...... not fully understood how such digital platforms can be strategically designed and configured to facilitate disruption. To that end, this thesis endeavors to unravel disruptive digital platforms from the supply perspective that are grounded on strategic digital platform design elements. I suggest...

Oil supply security -- Emergency response of IEA countries 2007

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-11-29

When Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf of Mexico in 2005, the region's oil production and refining infrastructure was devastated and world energy markets were disrupted. The International Energy Agency decided in a matter of days to bring 60 million barrels of additional oil to the market. The emergency response system worked - the collective action helped to stabilise global markets. Since its founding in 1974, oil supply security has been a core mission of the IEA and the Agency has improved its mechanisms to respond to short-term oil supply disruptions. Nevertheless, numerous factors will continue to test the delicate balance of supply and demand. Oil demand growth will continue to accelerate in Asia; oil will be increasingly produced by a shrinking number of countries; and capacities in the supply chain will need to expand. These are just a few of the challenges facing an already tight market. What are the emergency response systems of IEA countries? How are their emergency structures organised? How prepared is the IEA to deal with an oil supply disruption? This publication addresses these questions. It presents another cycle of rigorous reviews of the emergency response mechanisms of IEA member countries. The goal of these reviews is to ensure that the IEA stays ready to respond effectively to oil supply disruptions. This publication also includes overviews of how China, India and countries of Southeast Asia are progressing with domestic policies to improve oil supply security, based on emergency stocks.

Oil supply security -- Emergency response of IEA countries 2007

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-11-29

When Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf of Mexico in 2005, the region's oil production and refining infrastructure was devastated and world energy markets were disrupted. The International Energy Agency decided in a matter of days to bring 60 million barrels of additional oil to the market. The emergency response system worked - the collective action helped to stabilise global markets. Since its founding in 1974, oil supply security has been a core mission of the IEA and the Agency has improved its mechanisms to respond to short-term oil supply disruptions. Nevertheless, numerous factors will continue to test the delicate balance of supply and demand. Oil demand growth will continue to accelerate in Asia; oil will be increasingly produced by a shrinking number of countries; and capacities in the supply chain will need to expand. These are just a few of the challenges facing an already tight market. What are the emergency response systems of IEA countries? How are their emergency structures organised? How prepared is the IEA to deal with an oil supply disruption? This publication addresses these questions. It presents another cycle of rigorous reviews of the emergency response mechanisms of IEA member countries. The goal of these reviews is to ensure that the IEA stays ready to respond effectively to oil supply disruptions. This publication also includes overviews of how China, India and countries of Southeast Asia are progressing with domestic policies to improve oil supply security, based on emergency stocks.

Flexibility evaluation of multiechelon supply chains.

Science.gov (United States)

Almeida, João Flávio de Freitas; Conceição, Samuel Vieira; Pinto, Luiz Ricardo; de Camargo, Ricardo Saraiva; Júnior, Gilberto de Miranda

2018-01-01

Multiechelon supply chains are complex logistics systems that require flexibility and coordination at a tactical level to cope with environmental uncertainties in an efficient and effective manner. To cope with these challenges, mathematical programming models are developed to evaluate supply chain flexibility. However, under uncertainty, supply chain models become complex and the scope of flexibility analysis is generally reduced. This paper presents a unified approach that can evaluate the flexibility of a four-echelon supply chain via a robust stochastic programming model. The model simultaneously considers the plans of multiple business divisions such as marketing, logistics, manufacturing, and procurement, whose goals are often conflicting. A numerical example with deterministic parameters is presented to introduce the analysis, and then, the model stochastic parameters are considered to evaluate flexibility. The results of the analysis on supply, manufacturing, and distribution flexibility are presented. Tradeoff analysis of demand variability and service levels is also carried out. The proposed approach facilitates the adoption of different management styles, thus improving supply chain resilience. The model can be extended to contexts pertaining to supply chain disruptions; for example, the model can be used to explore operation strategies when subtle events disrupt supply, manufacturing, or distribution.

Responsive and resilient supply chain network design under operational and disruption risks with delivery lead-time sensitive customers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fattahi, Mohammad; Govindan, Kannan; Keyvanshokooh, Esmaeil

2017-01-01

We address a multi-period supply chain (SC) network design where demands of customers depend on facilities serving them based on their delivery lead-times. Potential customer demands are stochastic, and facilities’ capacity varies randomly because of possible disruptions. Accordingly, we develop...... a multi-stage stochastic program, and model disruptions’ effect on facilities’ capacity. The SC responsiveness risk is limited and, to obtain a resilient network, both mitigation and contingency strategies are exploited. Computational results on a real-life case study and randomly generated problem...... instances demonstrate the model's applicability, risk-measurement policies’ performance, and the influence of mitigation and contingency strategies on SC's resiliency....

Supply chain tsunamis : Research on low-probability, high-impact disruptions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Akkermans, Henk; van Wassenhove, L.N.

This study introduces supply chain tsunamis as a major strategic supply chain phenomenon. Like their ecological counterparts, supply chain tsunamis occur at relatively long intervals and are therefore easily mistaken for unique events, rather than recurring phenomena. In contrast to ocean tsunamis,

Making Supply Chains Resilient to Floods Using a Bayesian Network

Science.gov (United States)

Haraguchi, M.

2015-12-01

Natural hazards distress the global economy by disrupting the interconnected supply chain networks. Manufacturing companies have created cost-efficient supply chains by reducing inventories, streamlining logistics and limiting the number of suppliers. As a result, today's supply chains are profoundly susceptible to systemic risks. In Thailand, for example, the GDP growth rate declined by 76 % in 2011 due to prolonged flooding. Thailand incurred economic damage including the loss of USD 46.5 billion, approximately 70% of which was caused by major supply chain disruptions in the manufacturing sector. Similar problems occurred after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in 2011, the Mississippi River floods and droughts during 2011 - 2013, and Hurricane Sandy in 2012. This study proposes a methodology for modeling supply chain disruptions using a Bayesian network analysis (BNA) to estimate expected values of countermeasures of floods, such as inventory management, supplier management and hard infrastructure management. We first performed a spatio-temporal correlation analysis between floods and extreme precipitation data for the last 100 years at a global scale. Then we used a BNA to create synthetic networks that include variables associated with the magnitude and duration of floods, major components of supply chains and market demands. We also included decision variables of countermeasures that would mitigate potential losses caused by supply chain disruptions. Finally, we conducted a cost-benefit analysis by estimating the expected values of these potential countermeasures while conducting a sensitivity analysis. The methodology was applied to supply chain disruptions caused by the 2011 Thailand floods. Our study demonstrates desirable typical data requirements for the analysis, such as anonymized supplier network data (i.e. critical dependencies, vulnerability information of suppliers) and sourcing data(i.e. locations of suppliers, and production rates and

IEA Response System for Oil Supply Emergencies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-12-15

Emergency response to oil supply disruptions has remained a core mission of the International Energy Agency since its founding in 1974. This information pamphlet explains the decisionmaking process leading to an IEA collective action, the measures available -- focusing on stockdraw -- and finally, the historical background of major oil supply disruptions and the IEA response to them. It also demonstrates the continuing need for emergency preparedness, including the growing importance of engaging key transition and emerging economies in dialogue about energy security.

IEA Response System for Oil Supply Emergencies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2010-07-15

Emergency response to oil supply disruptions has remained a core mission of the International Energy Agency since its founding in 1974. This information pamphlet explains the decisionmaking process leading to an IEA collective action, the measures available -- focusing on stockdraw -- and finally, the historical background of major oil supply disruptions and the IEA response to them. It also demonstrates the continuing need for emergency preparedness, including the growing importance of engaging key transition and emerging economies in dialogue about energy security.

A Closed-Form Approximation Solution for an Inventory Model with Supply Disruptions and Non-ZIO Reorder Policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Heimann

2007-08-01

Full Text Available In supply chains, domestic and global, a producer must decide on an optimal quantity of items to order from suppliers and at what inventory level to place this order (the EOQ problem. We discuss how to modify the EOQ in the face of failures and recoveries by the supplier. This is the EOQ with disruption problem (EOQD. The supplier makes transitions between being capable and not being capable of filling an order in a Markov failure and recovery process. The producer adjusts the reorder point and the inventories to provide a margin of safety. Numerical solutions to the EOQD problem have been developed. In addition, a closed-form approximate solution has been developed for the zero inventory option (ZIO, where the inventory level on reordering is set to be zero. This paper develops a closed-form approximate solution for the EOQD problem when the reorder point can be non-zero, obtaining for that situation an optimal reorder quantity and optimal reorder point that represents an improvement on the optimal ZIO solution. The paper also supplies numerical examples demonstrating the cost savings against the ZIO situation, as well as the accuracy of the approximation technique.

Thigmotaxis Mediates Trail Odour Disruption.

Science.gov (United States)

Stringer, Lloyd D; Corn, Joshua E; Sik Roh, Hyun; Jiménez-Pérez, Alfredo; Manning, Lee-Anne M; Harper, Aimee R; Suckling, David M

2017-05-10

Disruption of foraging using oversupply of ant trail pheromones is a novel pest management application under investigation. It presents an opportunity to investigate the interaction of sensory modalities by removal of one of the modes. Superficially similar to sex pheromone-based mating disruption in moths, ant trail pheromone disruption lacks an equivalent mechanistic understanding of how the ants respond to an oversupply of their trail pheromone. Since significant compromise of one sensory modality essential for trail following (chemotaxis) has been demonstrated, we hypothesised that other sensory modalities such as thigmotaxis could act to reduce the impact on olfactory disruption of foraging behaviour. To test this, we provided a physical stimulus of thread to aid trailing by Argentine ants otherwise under disruptive pheromone concentrations. Trail following success was higher using a physical cue. While trail integrity reduced under continuous over-supply of trail pheromone delivered directly on the thread, provision of a physical cue in the form of thread slightly improved trail following and mediated trail disruption from high concentrations upwind. Our results indicate that ants are able to use physical structures to reduce but not eliminate the effects of trail pheromone disruption.

A New Resilience Measure for Supply Chain Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruiying Li

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Currently, supply chain networks can span the whole world, and any disruption of these networks may cause economic losses, decreases in sales and unsustainable supplies. Resilience, the ability of the system to withstand disruption and return to a normal state quickly, has become a new challenge during the supply chain network design. This paper defines a new resilience measure as the ratio of the integral of the normalized system performance within its maximum allowable recovery time after the disruption to the integral of the performance in the normal state. Using the maximum allowable recovery time of the system as the time interval under consideration, this measure allows the resilience of different systems to be compared on the same relative scale, and be used under both scenarios that the system can or cannot restore in the given time. Two specific resilience measures, the resilience based on the amount of product delivered and the resilience based on the average delivery distance, are provided for supply chain networks. To estimate the resilience of a given supply chain network, a resilience simulation method is proposed based on the Monte Carlo method. A four-layered hierarchial mobile phone supply chain network is used to illustrate the resilience quantification process and show how network structure affects the resilience of supply chain networks.

Building a Natural Disaster Risk Index for Supply Chain Operations

OpenAIRE

Kun Liao; Ozden Bayazit; Fang Wang

2014-01-01

Risk for an organization is associated with uncertainties in all areas of its operations. As firms move toward global sourcing, supply chain risk increases dramatically, which is linked to lower financial performance and market value. One major type of supply chain risk is disruptions caused by natural or man-made disasters. In this paper, major factors causing supply chain disruptions are identified based on resource dependency theory and contingency theory. As a result of the study, a compr...

Supply chain risk management: outlining an agenda for future research.

OpenAIRE

Jüttner, Uta; Peck, Helen; Christopher, Martin

2003-01-01

In recent years the issue of supply chain risk has been pushed to the fore, initially by fears related to possible disruptions from the much publicised ‘millennium bug’. Y2K passed seemingly without incident, though the widespread disruptions caused by fuel protests and then Foot and Mouth Disease in the UK, and by terrorist attacks on the USA have underlined the vulnerability of modern supply chains. Despite increasing awareness among practitioners, the concepts of supply chain vulnerabi...

The Future of Resilient Supply Chains

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Donadoni, Mattia; Roden, Sinéad; Scholten, Kirstin

This research aims to advance theoretical understanding around the management of supply chain disruptions through a multi-stage Delphi study on supply chain resilience. Stage one focused on polling academic experts followed by a second stage with practitioners from automotive, electronics and food...

Flexibility evaluation of multiechelon supply chains.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

João Flávio de Freitas Almeida

Full Text Available Multiechelon supply chains are complex logistics systems that require flexibility and coordination at a tactical level to cope with environmental uncertainties in an efficient and effective manner. To cope with these challenges, mathematical programming models are developed to evaluate supply chain flexibility. However, under uncertainty, supply chain models become complex and the scope of flexibility analysis is generally reduced. This paper presents a unified approach that can evaluate the flexibility of a four-echelon supply chain via a robust stochastic programming model. The model simultaneously considers the plans of multiple business divisions such as marketing, logistics, manufacturing, and procurement, whose goals are often conflicting. A numerical example with deterministic parameters is presented to introduce the analysis, and then, the model stochastic parameters are considered to evaluate flexibility. The results of the analysis on supply, manufacturing, and distribution flexibility are presented. Tradeoff analysis of demand variability and service levels is also carried out. The proposed approach facilitates the adoption of different management styles, thus improving supply chain resilience. The model can be extended to contexts pertaining to supply chain disruptions; for example, the model can be used to explore operation strategies when subtle events disrupt supply, manufacturing, or distribution.

Production control and supplier selection under demand disruptions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xianzhe Chen

2010-12-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the effects of demand disruptions on production control and supplier selection in a three-echelon supply chain system. The customer demand is modeled as a jump-diffusion process in a continuous-time setting. A two-number production-inventory policy is implemented in the production control model for the manufacturer. The objective is to minimize the long-term average total cost consisting of backlog cost, holding cost, switching cost, and ordering cost. The simulated annealing method is applied to search the optimal critical switching values. Furthermore, an improved analytical hierarchy process (AHP is proposed to select the best supplier, based on quantitative factors such as the optimal long-term total cost obtained through the simulated annealing method under demand disruptions and qualitative factors such as quality and service. Numerical studies are conducted to demonstrate the effects of demand disruptions in the face of various risk scenarios. Managerial insights from simulation results are provided as well. Our approaches can be implemented as the “stress test” for companies in front of various supply chain disruption scenarios.

Bagging grey swans : A supply network approach to identifying and managing low-probability high-impact supply chain events

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rossetti, Christian; Akkermans, Henk; Bhakoo, Vikram; Carnovale, Steven

Over the past decade practitioners and researchers have become increasingly focused on managing risks in extended supply chains. Whether these risks involve supply disruptions, financial liabilities for a supplier’s actions, or large market shifts; Grey Swan events, defined as unforeseen

Supply interruptions following the Boxing Day storms 1998

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1999-05-01

This report summarises the results of an investigation carried out by the Office of the Electricity Regulator into the disruption of power supplies in northern England and Scotland due to storms on Boxing Day 1998. The background to the study is traced, and the prevailing weather conditions, the number of customers affected, the network performance, the restoration of supplies, and problems encountered with telephone and other forms of communications with Public Electricity Suppliers (PESs) are highlighted. Payments to customers due to the disruption of power supplies are examined, and a table of payments made by suppliers to customers is presented. A summary of recommendations is given. (UK)

Molybdenum-99 supply: a global issue

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cote, R.V.

2011-01-01

This article discusses the global supply of Molybdenum 99 used in nuclear medicine. Following a disruption in supplies of isotopes in the last few years, a Canadian expert panel assessed the most viable options for securing a sustainable supply of Technitium 99 over the medium to long term. The general recommendations were to strive for diversity and redundancy throughout the supply chain, leverage multi-use infrastructure, continue with international coordination and seek processing standardization within North America.

On robustness in food supply chain networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vlajic, J.V.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.; Hendrix, E.M.T.

2010-01-01

Purpose: Today's business environment is characterized by challenges of strong global competition where companies tend to achieve leanness and maximum responsiveness to customer demand. Lean supply chain networks are vulnerable to all kind of disruptions. For food supply chain networks (FSCNs), due

Simulating the Afghanistan-Pakistan opium supply chain

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Watkins, Jennifer H [Los Alamos National Laboratory; MacKerrow, Edward P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Merritt, Terence M [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2010-04-08

This paper outlines an opium supply chain using the Hilmand province of Afghanistan as exemplar. The opium supply chain model follows the transformation of opium poppy seed through cultivation and chemical alteration to brown heroin base. The purpose of modeling and simulating the Afghanistan-Pakistan opium supply chain is to discover and test strategies that will disrupt this criminal enterprise.

Simulating Impacts of Disruptions to Liquid Fuels Infrastructure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilson, Michael [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Resilience and Regulatory Effects; Corbet, Thomas F. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Policy and Decision Analytics; Baker, Arnold B. [ABB Consulting, Albuquerque, NM (United States); O' Rourke, Julia M. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

2015-04-01

This report presents a methodology for estimating the impacts of events that damage or disrupt liquid fuels infrastructure. The impact of a disruption depends on which components of the infrastructure are damaged, the time required for repairs, and the position of the disrupted components in the fuels supply network. Impacts are estimated for seven stressing events in regions of the United States, which were selected to represent a range of disruption types. For most of these events the analysis is carried out using the National Transportation Fuels Model (NTFM) to simulate the system-level liquid fuels sector response. Results are presented for each event, and a brief cross comparison of event simulation results is provided.

IEA Response System for Oil Supply Emergencies (2012 update)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-09-05

Emergency response to oil supply disruptions has remained a core mission of the International Energy Agency since its founding in 1974. This information pamphlet explains the decisionmaking process leading to an IEA collective action, the measures available -- focusing on stockdraw -- and finally, the historical background of major oil supply disruptions and the IEA response to them. It also demonstrates the continuing need for emergency preparedness, including the growing importance of engaging key transition and emerging economies in dialogue about energy security.

Civil unrest in North Africa—Risks for natural gas supply?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lochner, Stefan; Dieckhöner, Caroline

2012-01-01

The uprising and military confrontation in Libya that began in February 2011 has led to disruptions of gas supplies to Europe. An analysis of how Europe has compensated for these missing gas volumes shows that this situation has not affected security of supply. However, this situation would change if the North African uprising were to spread to Algeria. Since Algeria is a much more important gas supplier to Europe than is Libya, more severe consequences would be likely. Applying a natural gas infrastructure model, we investigate the impact of supplier disruptions from both countries for a summer and winter period. Our analysis shows that disruptions in the low-demand summer months could be compensated for, mainly by LNG imports into several European countries. An investigation of a similar situation at the beginning of the winter shows that security of supply would be severely compromised and that disruptions to Italian consumers would be unavoidable. The analysis thereby highlights the importance of taking the political stability of supply countries into account when assessing the security of European gas imports. - Highlights: ► Impact of political instability on security of natural gas supplies. ► Analysis of export stop during Libyan civil war in 2011. ► Model-based analysis of potential future North African crisis scenarios. ► Findings: spread of uprisings to Algeria more critical for Europe. ► Price effects and potential demand curtailment for consumers.

VDE/disruption EM analysis for ITER in-vessel components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miki, N.; Ioki, K.; Ilio, F.; Kodama, T.; Chiocchio, S.; Williamson, D.; Roccella, M.; Barabaschi, P.; Sayer, R.S.

1998-01-01

This paper summarises the results of EM analyses for ITER in-vessel components, such as blanket modules, backplate and divertor modules. In the ITER design the following two disruption scenarios are taken into account: centered or radial disruption, and vertical displacement event (VDE). Eddy currents and forces due to plasma disruption were calculated using the 3D shell element code EDDYCUFF and the 3D solid element code EMAS. The plasma motion and current decay used in the EM analysis was supplied by 2-D axisymmetric plasma equilibrium codes, TSC and MAXFEA. (authors)

Towards an Empirical-Relational Model of Supply Chain Flexibility

OpenAIRE

Santanu Mandal

2015-01-01

Supply chains are prone to disruptions and associated risks. To develop capabilities for risk mitigation, supply chains need to be flexible. A flexible supply chain can respond better to environmental contingencies. Based on the theoretical tenets of resource-based view, relational view and dynamic capabilities theory, the current study develops a relational model of supply chain flexibility comprising trust, commitment, communication, co-operation, adaptation and interdependence. Subsequentl...

Intentional cargo disruption by nefarious means: Examining threats, systemic vulnerabilities and securitisation measures in complex global supply chains.

Science.gov (United States)

McGreevy, Conor; Harrop, Wayne

2015-01-01

Global trade and commerce requires products to be securely contained and transferred in a timely way across great distances and between national boundaries. Throughout the process, cargo and containers are stored, handled and checked by a range of authorities and authorised agents. Intermodal transportation involves the use of container ships, planes, railway systems, land bridges, road networks and barges. This paper examines the the nefarious nature of intentional disruption and nefarious risks associated with the movement of cargo and container freight. The paper explores main threats, vulnerabilities and security measures relevant to significant intermodal transit risk issues such as theft, piracy, terrorism, contamination, counterfeiting and product tampering. Three risk and vulnerability models are examined and basic standards and regulations that are relevant to safe and secure transit of container goods across international supply networks are outlined.

Contract Design, Supply Chain Complexity, and Accountability in Federal Contracts

Science.gov (United States)

2016-04-30

both the extent to which there is a risk of disruption within the supply chain and external to the supply chain as well. We suggest that the formal...governance mechanisms that are favored under different conditions of endogenous and exogenous supply chain risk reflect the risk management...share risk by agreeing to incentive contracts. Introduction Supply chains are complex in at least two fundamental aspects—the complexity or

Storage and security of supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Svensson, B.R.

1990-01-01

The paper considers the relationship between energy security and the consumption, supply and storage of natural gas, as agreed between the IEA Member countries. Additional supplies of natural gas should be obtained from as diverse sources as possible with emphasis on indigenous OECD sources. Instruments for coping with supply disruptions, such as underground storage of gas, interruptible gas sales, and dual-fired capabilities should be strengthened. These instruments, however, in combination with contractual swing factors, are also used to cope with fluctuations in demand for natural gas. The future demand and supply of natural gas in OECD Europe and North America is discussed. In OECD Europe the growth in residential and commercial demand is expected to be sustained, and, in both OECD Europe and North America, there is a further potential demand for gas for electricity generation. As residential and commercial demand (which is very temperature-dependent) grows, the need for storage facilities, interruptible sales contracts, dual-fired capabilities and swing factors in contracts will increase in order to balance the load. An expansion of gas demand for baseload electricity generation could, however, increase the load factor. Figures for the size of the storage capacity in 1987 and plans for future increases show that storage capacity is increasing. It is concluded that new underground storage represents an important contribution to the strengthening of each country's ability both to balance loads and to deal with supply disruptions. The IEA countries rely on the gas utilities to provide storage and other instruments for both purposes. (author). 2 figs, 3 tabs

Neural-net disruption predictor in JT-60U

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshino, R.

2003-01-01

The prediction of major disruptions caused by the density limit, the plasma current ramp-down with high internal inductance l i , the low density locked mode and the β-limit has been investigated in JT-60U. The concept of 'stability level', newly proposed in this paper to predict the occurrence of a major disruption, is calculated from nine input parameters every 2 ms by the neural network and the start of a major disruption is predicted when the stability level decreases to a certain level, the 'alarm level'. The neural network is trained in two steps. It is first trained with 12 disruptive and six non-disruptive shots (total of 8011 data points). Second, the target output data for 12 disruptive shots are modified and the network is trained again with additional data points generated by the operator. The 'neural-net disruption predictor' obtained has been tested for 300 disruptive shots (128 945 data points) and 1008 non-disruptive shots (982 800 data points) selected from nine years of operation (1991-1999) of JT-60U. Major disruptions except for those caused by the -limit have been predicted with a prediction success rate of 97-98% at 10 ms prior to the disruption and higher than 90% at 30 ms prior to the disruption while the false alarm rate is 2.1% for non-disruptive shots. This prediction performance has been confirmed for 120 disruptive shots (56 163 data points), caused by the density limit, as well as 1032 non-disruptive shots (1004 611 data points) in the last four years of operation (1999-2002) of JT-60U. A careful selection of the input parameters supplied to the network and the newly developed two-step training of the network have reduced the false alarm rate resulting in a considerable improvement of the prediction success rate. (author)

Redundancy of Supply in the International Nuclear Fuel Fabrication Market: Are Fabrication Services Assured?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seward, Amy M.; Toomey, Christopher; Ford, Benjamin E.; Wood, Thomas W.; Perkins, Casey J.

2011-01-01

For several years, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been assessing the reliability of nuclear fuel supply in support of the U.S. Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration. Three international low enriched uranium reserves, which are intended back up the existing and well-functioning nuclear fuel market, are currently moving toward implementation. These backup reserves are intended to provide countries credible assurance that of the uninterrupted supply of nuclear fuel to operate their nuclear power reactors in the event that their primary fuel supply is disrupted, whether for political or other reasons. The efficacy of these backup reserves, however, may be constrained without redundant fabrication services. This report presents the findings of a recent PNNL study that simulated outages of varying durations at specific nuclear fuel fabrication plants. The modeling specifically enabled prediction and visualization of the reactors affected and the degree of fuel delivery delay. The results thus provide insight on the extent of vulnerability to nuclear fuel supply disruption at the level of individual fabrication plants, reactors, and countries. The simulation studies demonstrate that, when a reasonable set of qualification criteria are applied, existing fabrication plants are technically qualified to provide backup fabrication services to the majority of the world's power reactors. The report concludes with an assessment of the redundancy of fuel supply in the nuclear fuel market, and a description of potential extra-market mechanisms to enhance the security of fuel supply in cases where it may be warranted. This report is an assessment of the ability of the existing market to respond to supply disruptions that occur for technical reasons. A forthcoming report will address political disruption scenarios.

Innovative supply chain optimization models with multiple uncertainty factors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Choi, Tsan Ming; Govindan, Kannan; Li, Xiang

2017-01-01

Uncertainty is an inherent factor that affects all dimensions of supply chain activities. In today’s business environment, initiatives to deal with one specific type of uncertainty might not be effective since other types of uncertainty factors and disruptions may be present. These factors relate...... to supply chain competition and coordination. Thus, to achieve a more efficient and effective supply chain requires the deployment of innovative optimization models and novel methods. This preface provides a concise review of critical research issues regarding innovative supply chain optimization models...

Computers and the supply of radiology services: anatomy of a disruptive technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, Frank

2008-10-01

Over the next decade, computers will augment the supply of radiology services at a time when reimbursement rules are likely to tighten. Increased supply and slower growing demand will result in a radiology market that is more competitive, with less income growth, than the market of the past 15 years.

Sustainable and Resilient Garment Supply Chain Network Design with Fuzzy Multi-Objectives under Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sonia Irshad Mari

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Researchers and practitioners are taking more interest in developing sustainable garment supply chains in recent times. On the other hand, the supply chain manager drops sustainability objectives while coping with unexpected natural and man-made disruption risks. Hence, supply chain managers are now trying to develop sustainable supply chains that are simultaneously resilient enough to cope with disruption risks. Owing to the importance of the considered issue, this study proposed a network optimization model for a sustainable and resilient supply chain network by considering sustainability via embodied carbon footprints and carbon emissions and resilience by considering resilience index. In this paper, initially, a possibilistic fuzzy multi-objective sustainable and resilient supply chain network model is developed for the garment industry considering economic, sustainable, and resilience objectives. Secondly, a possibilistic fuzzy linguistic weight-based interactive solution method is proposed. Finally, a numerical case example is presented to show the applicability of the proposed model and solution methodology.

Analysis of the electricity supply-demand balance during the winter of 2008-2009: moderate risk of supply disruption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-10-01

Twice a year, RTE publishes a forecast study of the electricity supply and demand in continental France for the summer and winter periods. The study is based on the information supplied by electric utilities concerning the expected availability of power generation means and on statistical meteorological models. Safety margins are calculated using thousands of probabilistic scenarios combining various production and consumption situations. This report is the forecast study for the winter of 2008-2009

The Supply of Medical Radioisotopes. An Economic Study of the Molybdenum-99 Supply Chain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

The reliable supply of molybdenum-99 (Mo-99) and its decay product, technetium-99m (Tc-99m), is a vital component of modern medical diagnostic practices. Disruptions in the supply chain of these radioisotopes - which cannot be effectively stored - can suspend important medical testing services. Unfortunately, supply reliability has declined over the past decade, due to unexpected or extended shutdowns at the few ageing, Mo-99 producing, research reactors and processing facilities. These shutdowns have created global supply shortages. The full study offers a unique analysis of the economic structure and present state of the Mo-99/Tc-99m supply chain. It finds that the shortages are a symptom of a longer-term problem linked to insufficient capital investment, which has been brought about by an economic structure that does not provide sufficient remuneration for producing Mo-99 or support for developing additional production and processing infrastructure. To assist governments and other decision makers in their efforts to ensure long-term, reliable supply of these important medical isotopes, the study presents options for creating a sustainable economic structure. The study will also enhance understanding amongst stakeholders of the costs of supplying Mo-99 and ultimately contribute to a better functioning market. (authors)

Collaborate or not? : A system dynamics study on disruption recovery

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhu, Quan; Krikke, Harold; Caniels, Marjolein C. J.

2016-01-01

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate different combinations of collaboration strategies to deal with different types of supply chain disruptions, find the best combination, and provide targeting suggestions for investments. Design/methodology/approach – A system dynamics simulation

Investigating and evaluating the influcence of supply chain structure on supply chain risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sayed, Zehran

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Supply chains are exposed to disruptions resulting from internal or external factors that hinder the performance of one or more of their constituent entities. An exploratory study was conducted to determine whether supply chain structure (SCS influences supply chain risk (SCR, in the context of small and medium enterprises (SMEs in South Africa. Thematic content analysis was applied to the case data of four Gauteng-based manufacturing SMEs (SMMEs, and summarised in a literature-developed, conceptual structure-risk framework. Results indicate that SCS does influence SCR. Investment in facility infrastructure and supplier relationships appear to be the most influential features. SCS also affects the operational and financial risk of an enterprise. These risks drive the SMEs’ strategy and reputation, and consequently drive the corresponding risk dimensions (i.e., strategic and reputation risks. These findings are limited, and should not be generalised to all South African SMEs.

Resilience of natural gas networks during conflicts, crises and disruptions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rui Carvalho

Full Text Available Human conflict, geopolitical crises, terrorist attacks, and natural disasters can turn large parts of energy distribution networks offline. Europe's current gas supply network is largely dependent on deliveries from Russia and North Africa, creating vulnerabilities to social and political instabilities. During crises, less delivery may mean greater congestion, as the pipeline network is used in ways it has not been designed for. Given the importance of the security of natural gas supply, we develop a model to handle network congestion on various geographical scales. We offer a resilient response strategy to energy shortages and quantify its effectiveness for a variety of relevant scenarios. In essence, Europe's gas supply can be made robust even to major supply disruptions, if a fair distribution strategy is applied.

Sub-Saharan Africa Electricity Supply Inadequacy: Implications ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Africa has many electricity supply problems with major causes being natural causes (drought), oil price shock, system disruption by conflict, and low investment in electricity generation. To solve the problem, many countries adopted several reforms. However, the reforms failed to bring solutions. Electricity sector privatisation ...

Uranium supply of the Swiss nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clausen, A.

1991-01-01

Securing the supply to Swiss nuclear power stations takes into account the fact that finished fuel elements must be introduced. The situation is, however, relieved by the fact there are excess capacities both in the amount of natural uranium available as well as in all processing stages. As further security, each nuclear power station keeps a reload of fuel elements in stock, so that if supplies are disrupted, continued operation is guaranteed for 1-2 years. Political influences should be taken into account, as should any repercussions that fuel disposal may have on fuel supply. 3 figs

Analysis of Product Complexity considering Disruption Cost in Fast Fashion Supply Chain

OpenAIRE

Sardar, Shaheen; Lee, Young Hae

2015-01-01

Outsourcing in the textile industry has been playing an important role in the global economy for six decades. Recently, reshoring is an emerging trend due to various complexities involved in supply chain management. As compared with basic textile and apparel products, fast fashion products are complex in their own way. A single assortment contains several new styles, colors, and sizes with unpredictable demand and urgent deadlines. Numerous assortments run simultaneously in the supply chain. ...

The Supply of Medical Radioisotopes An Economic Study of the Molybdenum-99 Supply Chain: Summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

The reliable supply of molybdenum-99 (Mo-99) and its decay product, technetium-99m (Tc-99m), is a vital component of modern medical diagnostic practices. Disruptions in the supply chain of these radioisotopes - which cannot be effectively stored - can suspend important medical testing services. Unfortunately, supply reliability has declined over the past decade, due to unexpected or extended shutdowns at the few ageing, Mo-99 producing, research reactors and processing facilities. These shutdowns have created global supply shortages. The full study offers a unique analysis of the economic structure and present state of the Mo-99/Tc-99m supply chain. It finds that the shortages are a symptom of a longer-term problem linked to insufficient capital investment, which has been brought about by an economic structure that does not provide sufficient remuneration for producing Mo-99 or support for developing additional production and processing infrastructure. To assist governments and other decision makers in their efforts to ensure long-term, reliable supply of these important medical isotopes, the study presents options for creating a sustainable economic structure. The study will also enhance understanding amongst stakeholders of the costs of supplying Mo-99 and ultimately contribute to a better functioning market. (authors)

Vulnerabilities and rupture risk in the supply of materials and medicine on the supply chain in the Public Hospital

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lilian de Fátima Silva

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Constant disruptions in the hospital supply chain caused by various sources of risk and vulnerability have been identified. This article aims to identify and analyze the main vulnerabilities that cause rupture risk in the supply of materials and medicines, on the supply chain in a public hospital in the city of Belo Horizonte. From qualitative research, we interviewed ten employees of the hospital and five suppliers. The interview script used was adapted from the model proposed by Mason-Jones and Towill (1988 and adapted by Bastos Junior (2007. As part of the results, it is possible to mention the risks of supply and the processes risk as being among those which were of more concern to the employees and the supply risks and control risk of more concern in the suppliers vision. It is inferred that more investment is necessary in the hospital supply chain management, given that the processes are based on the reaction to the risks rather than their prevention.

International Oil Supplies and Demands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-09-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence

International Oil Supplies and Demands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-04-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence

International Oil Supplies and Demands

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1991-09-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

International Oil Supplies and Demands

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1992-04-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

A Network-Based Impact Measure for Propagated Losses in a Supply Chain Network Consisting of Resilient Components

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jesus Felix Bayta Valenzuela

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The topology of a supply chain network affects the impacts of disruptions in it. We formulate a network-based measure of the impact of a disruption loss in a supply chain propagating downstream from an originating node. The measure takes into account the loss profile of the originating node, the structure of the supply network, and the resilience of the network components. We obtain an analytical expression for the impact measure under a beta-distributed initial loss (generalizable to any continuous distribution supported on the interval 0,1, under a breakthrough scenario (in which a fraction of the initial production loss reaches a focal company downstream as opposed to containment upstream or at the originating point. Furthermore, we obtain a closed-form solution for a supply chain network with a k-ary tree topology; a numerical study is performed for a scale-free network and a random network. Our proposed approach enables the evaluation of potential losses for a focal company considering its supply chain network structure, which may help the company to plan or redesign a robust and resilient network in response to different types of disruptions.

How To Respond to Catastrophic Events in Supply Chain Management

OpenAIRE

Choi, Sooyeon

2011-01-01

In March of 2011, a massive earthquake and tsunami struck into Japan. Soon after this event, Toyota in the UK announced that their production had to been halted caused by disruption on supply chain relationship with Japan. Like this, a catastrophic event disturbs not only domestic situation but also international business. Supply chain is one of the most affected areas and also capable to control on business at the same time when a disaster occurs. In this work, how to respond supply chain sy...

A new Disruption Mitigation System for deuterium–tritium operation at JET

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kruezi, Uron, E-mail: uron.kruezi@ccfe.ac.uk [CCFE, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Jachmich, Stefan [Laboratory for Plasma Physic, ERM/KMS, B-1000 Brussels (Belgium); Koslowski, Hans Rudolf [Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, IEK-4, 52425 Jülich (Germany); Lehnen, Michael [ITER Organization, Route de Vinon-sur-Verdon, CS90046, 13067 St. Paul Lez Durance Cedex (France); Brezinsek, Sebastijan [Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, IEK-4, 52425 Jülich (Germany); Matthews, Guy [CCFE, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom)

2015-10-15

Highlights: • A Disruption Mitigation System based on massive gas injections has been designed. • The DMS has been installed at the JET-tokamak for routine machine protection. • The DMS is capable of a throughput of up to 4.6 kPa m{sup 3}. • The new DMS is compatible with the deuterium–tritium operation at JET. - Abstract: Disruptions, the fast accidental losses of plasma current and stored energy in tokamaks, represent a significant risk to the mechanical structure as well as the plasma facing components of reactor-scale fusion facilities like ITER. At JET, the tokamak experiment closest to ITER in terms of operating parameters and size, massive gas injection has been established as a disruption mitigation method. As a “last resort” measure it reduces thermal and electromagnetic loads during disruptions which can potentially have a serious impact on the beryllium and tungsten plasma-facing materials of the main chamber and divertor. For the planned deuterium–tritium experiments, a new Disruption Mitigation System (DMS) has been designed and installed and is presented in this article. The new DMS at JET consists of an all metal gate valve compatible with gas injections, a fast high pressure eddy current driven valve, a high voltage power supply and a gas handling system providing six supply lines for pure and mixed noble and flammable gases (Ar, Ne, Kr, D{sub 2}, etc.). The valve throughput varies with the injection pressure and gas type (efficiency – injected/charged gas 50–97%); the maximum injected amount of gas is approximately 4.6 kPa m{sup 3} (at maximum system pressure of 5.0 MPa).

A new Disruption Mitigation System for deuterium–tritium operation at JET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kruezi, Uron; Jachmich, Stefan; Koslowski, Hans Rudolf; Lehnen, Michael; Brezinsek, Sebastijan; Matthews, Guy

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A Disruption Mitigation System based on massive gas injections has been designed. • The DMS has been installed at the JET-tokamak for routine machine protection. • The DMS is capable of a throughput of up to 4.6 kPa m"3. • The new DMS is compatible with the deuterium–tritium operation at JET. - Abstract: Disruptions, the fast accidental losses of plasma current and stored energy in tokamaks, represent a significant risk to the mechanical structure as well as the plasma facing components of reactor-scale fusion facilities like ITER. At JET, the tokamak experiment closest to ITER in terms of operating parameters and size, massive gas injection has been established as a disruption mitigation method. As a “last resort” measure it reduces thermal and electromagnetic loads during disruptions which can potentially have a serious impact on the beryllium and tungsten plasma-facing materials of the main chamber and divertor. For the planned deuterium–tritium experiments, a new Disruption Mitigation System (DMS) has been designed and installed and is presented in this article. The new DMS at JET consists of an all metal gate valve compatible with gas injections, a fast high pressure eddy current driven valve, a high voltage power supply and a gas handling system providing six supply lines for pure and mixed noble and flammable gases (Ar, Ne, Kr, D_2, etc.). The valve throughput varies with the injection pressure and gas type (efficiency – injected/charged gas 50–97%); the maximum injected amount of gas is approximately 4.6 kPa m"3 (at maximum system pressure of 5.0 MPa).

Supply Security in Future Nuclear Fuel Markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seward, Amy M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wood, Thomas W. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Gitau, Ernest T. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Ford, Benjamin E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2013-11-18

Previous PNNL work has shown the existing nuclear fuel markets to provide a high degree of supply security, including the ability to respond to supply disruptions that occur for technical and non-technical reasons. It is in the context of new reactor designs – that is, reactors likely to be licensed and market ready over the next several decades – that fuel supply security is most relevant. Whereas the fuel design and fabrication technology for existing reactors are well known, the construction of a new set of reactors could stress the ability of the existing market to provide adequate supply redundancy. This study shows this is unlikely to occur for at least thirty years, as most reactors likely to be built in the next three decades will be evolutions of current designs, with similar fuel designs to existing reactors.

Supply Security in Future Nuclear Fuel Markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seward, Amy M.; Wood, Thomas W.; Gitau, Ernest T.; Ford, Benjamin E.

2013-01-01

Previous PNNL work has shown the existing nuclear fuel markets to provide a high degree of supply security, including the ability to respond to supply disruptions that occur for technical and non-technical reasons. It is in the context of new reactor designs - that is, reactors likely to be licensed and market ready over the next several decades - that fuel supply security is most relevant. Whereas the fuel design and fabrication technology for existing reactors are well known, the construction of a new set of reactors could stress the ability of the existing market to provide adequate supply redundancy. This study shows this is unlikely to occur for at least thirty years, as most reactors likely to be built in the next three decades will be evolutions of current designs, with similar fuel designs to existing reactors.

The supply of medical radioisotopes - The Path to Reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

The reliable supply of molybdenum-99 ( 99 Mo) and its decay product, technetium-99m ( 99m Tc), is a vital component of modern medical diagnostic practices. Disruptions in the supply chain of these radioisotopes can delay or prevent important medical testing services. Unfortunately, supply reliability has declined over the past decade, due to unexpected or extended shutdowns at the few ageing, 99 Mo-producing, research reactors and processing facilities. These shutdowns have recently created global supply shortages. This report provides the findings and analysis of two years of extensive examination of the 99 Mo/ 99m Tc supply chain by the OECD/NEA High-level Group on the Security of Supply of Medical Radioisotopes (HLG-MR). It puts forth a comprehensive policy approach that would help ensure long-term supply security of 99 Mo/ 99m Tc, detailing the essential steps to be taken by governments, industry and the health community to address the vulnerabilities of the supply chain, including its economic structure. (authors)

Desirable Strategic Petroleum Reserves policies in response to supply uncertainty: A stochastic analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bai, Yang; Zhou, Peng; Tian, Lixin; Meng, Fanyi

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A stochastic model is proposed to study Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) policy. • The model aims to find desirable SPR size, acquisition, drawdown and refilling policy. • The impact of SPR policy and supply disruption on oil price has been examined. - Abstract: The paper proposes a survey on three issues related to Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) policy. Firstly, what are the optimal SPR acquisition, drawdown and refilling policy in response to various market risks? Secondly, how SPR policy or actions will affect the market factors, i.e. oil demand or price. Thirdly, in what extend a disruption may induce price shock. For the purpose, the study proposed a Markov Decision Process model (SPR-MDP). In the model, oil supply, disruption size and duration are considered to be highly stochastic. Oil price is determined by market fundamentals exclusively. According to the empirical study, we come to some interesting conclusions. Firstly, oil price and disruption risk show different ways in influencing the desirable SPR size. It is found that the SPR size increases with the decrease of oil price while increase of disruption risk. Secondly, SPR acquisition may increase oil price slightly by influencing the basic fundamentals. In given case, we find acquisition of 7 million barrels per month increase the price by 2.6%. But the influence weakens with decrease of acquisition size. Thirdly, disruption duration shows significant impact on SPR drawdown policy. In a two-month disruption case, it is found that 51% of SPR should be released in the first month. Another 40% is released in the following month. The other 9% SPR is left for forthcoming disruptions. Meanwhile, SPR drawdown shows high efficient in damping oil price in the disruption. In given case, after drawdown of SPR, the oil prices only increases by 0.7% in the second month though continue disruption.

Consequence and Resilience Modeling for Chemical Supply Chains

Science.gov (United States)

Stamber, Kevin L.; Vugrin, Eric D.; Ehlen, Mark A.; Sun, Amy C.; Warren, Drake E.; Welk, Margaret E.

2011-01-01

The U.S. chemical sector produces more than 70,000 chemicals that are essential material inputs to critical infrastructure systems, such as the energy, public health, and food and agriculture sectors. Disruptions to the chemical sector can potentially cascade to other dependent sectors, resulting in serious national consequences. To address this concern, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) tasked Sandia National Laboratories to develop a predictive consequence modeling and simulation capability for global chemical supply chains. This paper describes that capability , which includes a dynamic supply chain simulation platform called N_ABLE(tm). The paper also presents results from a case study that simulates the consequences of a Gulf Coast hurricane on selected segments of the U.S. chemical sector. The case study identified consequences that include impacted chemical facilities, cascading impacts to other parts of the chemical sector. and estimates of the lengths of chemical shortages and recovery . Overall. these simulation results can DHS prepare for and respond to actual disruptions.

Framework for resilience in material supply chains, with a case study from the 2010 Rare Earth Crisis.

Science.gov (United States)

Sprecher, Benjamin; Daigo, Ichiro; Murakami, Shinsuke; Kleijn, Rene; Vos, Matthijs; Kramer, Gert Jan

2015-06-02

In 2010, Chinese export restrictions caused the price of the rare earth element neodymium to increase by a factor of 10, only to return to almost normal levels in the following months. This despite the fact that the restrictions were not lifted. The significant price peak shows that this material supply chain was only weakly resistant to a major supply disruption. However, the fact that prices rapidly returned to lower levels implies a certain resilience. With the help of a novel approach, based on resilience theory combined with a material flow analysis (MFA) based representation of the neodymium magnet (NdFeB) supply chain, we show that supply chain resilience is composed of various mechanisms, including (a) resistance, (b) rapidity, and (c) flexibility, that originate from different parts of the supply chain. We make recommendations to improve the capacity of the NdFeB system to deal with future disruptions and discuss potential generalities for the resilience of other material supply chains.

Strategic gas reserves and EU security-of-supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Austvik, Ole Gunnar

2003-01-01

The author attempts to distinguish a country's ''normal'' dependence on imports of a commodity from sensitivity and vulnerability dependence. We will then discuss how the risk for disruptions in supplies may be viewed as an externality in imports and, thus, consumption of gas. The model presented demonstrates how environmental externalities as a result of increased domestic production can be evaluated together with the security-of-supply problem. Finally, it is discussed how gas reserves can be used as a means in an emergency situation

The Analysis of Rush Orders Risk in Supply Chain: a Simulation Approach

OpenAIRE

Arisha, Amr; Mahfouz, Amr

2010-01-01

Satisfying customers by delivering demands at an agreed time, with competitive prices, and in satisfactory quality level are crucial requirements for supply chain survival. The incident of risks in supply chain often causes sudden disruptions in the processes and consequently leads to customers losing their trust in a company’s competence. Rush orders are considered to be one of the main types of supply chain risks due to their negative impact on the overall performance. Using integrated defi...

Complex interdependent supply chain networks: Cascading failure and robustness

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Liang; Jing, Ke; He, Jie; Stanley, H. Eugene

2016-02-01

A supply chain network is a typical interdependent network composed of an undirected cyber-layer network and a directed physical-layer network. To analyze the robustness of this complex interdependent supply chain network when it suffers from disruption events that can cause nodes to fail, we use a cascading failure process that focuses on load propagation. We consider load propagation via connectivity links as node failure spreads through one layer of an interdependent network, and we develop a priority redistribution strategy for failed loads subject to flow constraint. Using a giant component function and a one-to-one directed interdependence relation between nodes in a cyber-layer network and physical-layer network, we construct time-varied functional equations to quantify the dynamic process of failed loads propagation in an interdependent network. Finally, we conduct a numerical simulation for two cases, i.e., single node removal and multiple node removal at the initial disruption. The simulation results show that when we increase the number of removed nodes in an interdependent supply chain network its robustness undergoes a first-order discontinuous phase transition, and that even removing a small number of nodes will cause it to crash.

Improving Supply Chain Management by enhanced Risk Management to minimize the Impact of Disruptions on Supply Chains

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meyer-Larsen, N.; Drupsteen, L.; Gräf, G.; Maier, L.; Müller, R.

2013-01-01

Risk management, which is the identification and analysis of risks and their mitigation, is increasingly becoming a crucial factor in the management of international intermodal supply chains. On the one hand, security risks are addressed, especially since the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001.

Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market. Some model-based insights

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abada, Ibrahim; Massol, Olivier

2011-04-01

In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertain disruptions in gas supply upon gas retailer contracting behavior and consequent price and welfare implications in a gas market characterized by long-term gas contracts using a static Cournot model. In order to most realistically describe the economical situation, our representation divides the market into two stages: the upstream market that links, by means of long-term contracts, producers in exporting countries (Russia, Algeria, etc.) to local retailers who bring gas to the consuming countries to satisfy local demands in the downstream market. Disruption costs are modeled using short-run demand functions. First we mathematically develop a general model and write the associated KKT conditions, then we propose some case studies, under iso-elasticity assumptions, for the long-short-run inverse-demand curves in order to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of supply disruptions on Western European gas trade. In the second part, we study in detail the German gas market of the 1980's to explain the supply choices of the German retailer, and we derive interesting conclusions and insights concerning the amounts and prices of natural gas brought to the market. The last part of the paper is dedicated to a study of the Bulgarian gas market, which is greatly dependent on the Russian gas supplies and hence very sensitive to interruption risks. Some interesting conclusions are derived concerning the necessity to economically regulate the market, by means of gas amounts control, if the disruption probability is high enough. (authors)

Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abada, Ibrahim, E-mail: ibrahim.abada@polytechnique.edu [IFP Energies nouvelles, 1 et 4 avenue de Bois Preau, 92852 Rueil-Malmaison (France); EDF Research and Development, 1 avenue du General de Gaulle, 92140 Clamart (France); EconomiX-CNRS, University of Paris Ouest (France); Massol, Olivier, E-mail: olivier.massol@ifpen.fr [Center for Economics and Management, IFP School, 228-232 av. Napoleon Bonaparte, 92852 Rueil-Malmaison (France); Department of Economics, City University London, Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB (United Kingdom)

2011-07-15

In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertain disruptions in gas supply upon gas retailer contracting behavior and consequent price and welfare implications in a gas market characterized by long-term gas contracts using a static Cournot model. In order to most realistically describe the economical situation, our representation divides the market into two stages: the upstream market that links, by means of long-term contracts, producers in exporting countries (Russia, Algeria, etc.) to local retailers who bring gas to the consuming countries to satisfy local demands in the downstream market. Disruption costs are modeled using short-run demand functions. First we mathematically develop a general model and write the associated KKT conditions, then we propose some case studies, under iso-elasticity assumptions, for the long-short-run inverse-demand curves in order to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of supply disruptions on Western European gas trade. In the second part, we study in detail the German gas market of the 1980s to explain the supply choices of the German retailer, and we derive interesting conclusions and insights concerning the amounts and prices of natural gas brought to the market. The last part of the paper is dedicated to a study of the Bulgarian gas market, which is greatly dependent on the Russian gas supplies and hence very sensitive to interruption risks. Some interesting conclusions are derived concerning the necessity to economically regulate the market, by means of gas amounts control, if the disruption probability is high enough. - Highlights: > We model retail competition using a Nash-Cournot framework. > Risk-neutral retailers decide their import policy among a set of risky producers. > Case 1: the German gas trade of the 1980s to understand the gas sources' choices. > Case 2: the current Bulgarian gas trade to study the market properties. > Conclusions about the market regulation for welfare optimization reasons.

Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abada, Ibrahim; Massol, Olivier

2011-01-01

In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertain disruptions in gas supply upon gas retailer contracting behavior and consequent price and welfare implications in a gas market characterized by long-term gas contracts using a static Cournot model. In order to most realistically describe the economical situation, our representation divides the market into two stages: the upstream market that links, by means of long-term contracts, producers in exporting countries (Russia, Algeria, etc.) to local retailers who bring gas to the consuming countries to satisfy local demands in the downstream market. Disruption costs are modeled using short-run demand functions. First we mathematically develop a general model and write the associated KKT conditions, then we propose some case studies, under iso-elasticity assumptions, for the long-short-run inverse-demand curves in order to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of supply disruptions on Western European gas trade. In the second part, we study in detail the German gas market of the 1980s to explain the supply choices of the German retailer, and we derive interesting conclusions and insights concerning the amounts and prices of natural gas brought to the market. The last part of the paper is dedicated to a study of the Bulgarian gas market, which is greatly dependent on the Russian gas supplies and hence very sensitive to interruption risks. Some interesting conclusions are derived concerning the necessity to economically regulate the market, by means of gas amounts control, if the disruption probability is high enough. - Highlights: → We model retail competition using a Nash-Cournot framework. → Risk-neutral retailers decide their import policy among a set of risky producers. → Case 1: the German gas trade of the 1980s to understand the gas sources' choices. → Case 2: the current Bulgarian gas trade to study the market properties. → Conclusions about the market regulation for welfare optimization

A REVIEW: POTENSI RISIKO PADA SUPPLY CHAIN RISK MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dwi Iryaning Handayani

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Supply Chain Risk Management merupakan risiko yang terjadi pada aliran produk, informasi, bahan baku sampai pengiriman produk akhir yang mengancam keseluruhan supply chain dari pemasok awal hingga sampai konsumen. Sedangkan Supply chain disruptions (gangguan rantai pasok adalah peristiwa tak terencana yang terjadi dalam rantai pasok yang bisa mempengaruhi aliran bahan dan komponen. Kejadian risiko yang terjadi didalam supply chain telah banyak dilakukan oleh beberapa peneliti sehingga perlu dilakukan review untuk mengetahui potensi risiko yang terjadi pada supply chain. Risiko yang terjadi pada supply chain berdasarkan hasil penelitian sebelumya terdapat 120 jenis risiko. Kesamaan risiko yang terjadi pada supply chain menghasilkan 17 jenis risiko yang sama pada supply chain dan terdapat 3 risiko yang sering terjadi yaitu risiko demand, keterlambatan bahan baku, Bencana alam (discruption, sedangkan 14 risiko lainnya yaitu , kwalitas supplier, kwalitas produk, sistem informasi, harga, suplai, produk rusak digudang, finansial, ketergantungan supplier, penundaan, kapasitas produksi, persediaan, kekurangan bahan baku, selisih stok dan politik. Adapun mitigasi yang dapat dilakukan dalam mengatasi gangguan supply chain ada 9 strategi yaitu: postponement, strategy stock, flexible supply base. make and buy, economic supply incentives, flexible transportation. revenue management via dynamic pricing and promotion, assortment planning. silent product rollover.

Designing indicators of long-term energy supply security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jansen, J.C.; Van Arkel, W.G.; Boots, M.G.

2004-01-01

To our knowledge, so far amazingly little research work has been undertaken to construct meaningful indicators of long-run energy supply security for a particular nation or region. Currently, in addressing energy supply security, policy makers tend to emphasise short-term supply disruptions. In contrast, this pre-study accords with the broader Sustainability Outlook in considering the long-term perspective. This report starts with taking stock, in a concise way, of the official EU energy outlook and issues related to the opportunities to administer changes in the energy mix at the level of major energy use categories. Then a brief survey of relevant literature is made on long-term strategies to ensure survival of systems - be it biological, social, etc. - in an environment largely characterised by high uncertainty and a lot of unchartered territory. We found the work of Andrew Stirling very inspiring in this context. Based on his work and considering the limitations of the present research activity, we retained the Shannon index as the best 'simple' indicator of diversity. In the core of the report, the Shannon index is elaborated into four indicators of long-term energy supply security. Stepwise, additional aspects of long-term energy supply security are introduced. These aspects are: Diversification of energy sources in energy supply; Diversification of imports with respect to imported energy sources; Long-term political stability in regions of origin; The resource base in regions of origin, including the home region/country itself. After small adjustments to allow for data availability, these indicators were applied to the reference year 2030 of four long-term scenarios with data of base year 1995 and projections for underlying variables provided by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP). Preliminary interpretation of the results suggests the usefulness of the indicators presented in this report. A second activity undertaken in this report was

Retailer’s Procurement Strategy under Endogenous Supply Stability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chengxiao Feng

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a dynamic model is presented to study retailer’s procurement strategy when supply stability is endogenously determined. The optimal supply stability as well as the optimal purchasing strategy are characterized with a quadratic cost function. Based on these models, the following findings are brought about. Firstly, when the difficulty level of building supply stability exceeds a certain threshold, it would be more profitable for the retailer to choose a less reliable supplier. Secondly, given that the suppliers can get positive profit, the retailer would choose the one who has the strongest ability to be reliable. Thirdly, the equilibrium supply to the retailer would always meet the demand on the retailing market. Finally, emergency procurement is shown to be an effective way to reduce the risk of supply chain disruptions. To better fit the real situations, an extended model which considers the impact of the stability on costs is further discussed.

Optimization of a dynamic supply portfolio considering risks and discount’s constraints

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Masoud Rabbani

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: Nowadays finding reliable suppliers in the global supply chains has become so important for success, because reliable suppliers would lead to a reliable supply and besides that orders of customer are met effectively . Yet, there is little empirical evidence to support this view, hence the purpose of this paper is to fill this need by considering risk in order to find the optimum supply portfolio. Design/methodology/approach: This paper proposes a multi objective model for the supplier selection portfolio problem that uses conditional value at risk (CVaR criteria to control the risks of delayed, disrupted and defected supplies via scenario analysis. Also we consider discount’s constraints which are common assumptions in supplier selection problems. The proposed approach is capable of determining the optimal supply portfolio by calculating value-at-risk and minimizing conditional value-at-risk. In this study the Reservation Level driven Tchebycheff Procedure (RLTP which is one of the reference point methods, is used to solve small size of our model through coding in GAMS. As our model is NP-hard; a meta-heuristic approach, Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA which is one of the most efficient methods for optimizing multi objective models, is applied to solve large scales of our model. Findings and Originality/value: In order to find a dynamic supply portfolio, we developed a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP model which contains two objectives. One objective minimizes the cost and the other minimizes the risks of delayed, disrupted and defected supplies. CVaR is used as the risk controlling method which emphases on low-probability, high-consequence events. Discount option as a common offer from suppliers is also implanted in the proposed model. Our findings show that the proposed model can help in optimization of a dynamic supplier selection portfolio with controlling the corresponding risks for large scales of real word

The Supply of Medical Radioisotopes. Medical Isotope Supply in the Future: Production Capacity and Demand. Forecast for the 99Mo/99mTc Market, 2015-2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peykov, Pavel; Cameron, Ron

2014-04-01

This document presents a forecast of 99 Mo/ 99m Tc production capacity and demand in 2015-2020, when two major irradiators - the OSIRIS and NRU reactors in France and Canada - are expected to exit the global supply chain and new alternative technology projects may be commissioned. The forecast does not attempt to predict shortages, but identify periods when there is an increased risk of disrupted supply, to inform policy makers and other stakeholders. (authors)

Prize something, including quality. The price of supply interruption. On the search for φ. Technical report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baarsma, B.E.; Berkhout, P.H.G.; Hop, J.P.

2004-04-01

The Dutch Office of Energy Regulation (DTe) plans to adjust the present regulations with regard to regional electricity network companies. In 2002 an integrated model for pricing and quality regulations is drafted, which is expected to be implemented in 2005. This report serves as input for such a model. Quality is defined in terms of electricity supply disruptions. The aim of the study on the title subject is to determine prices for different types of power supply disruptions. The study is based on a survey among 12,400 households and nearly 2,500 small and medium-sized businesses in the Netherlands [nl

Simulating security of supply effects of the Nabucco and South Stream projects for the European natural gas market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dieckhoener, Caroline

2010-12-15

Due to the increasing European import dependency, significant additional natural gas volumes will be required. In addition to the Nord Stream pipeline, the Nabucco and South Stream pipeline are projects planned for the next decade to provide further gas supplies to the European market. As one of the European Union's energy policies' foci is security of supply, the question can be raised if and how these projects contribute to this objective not only in terms of diversification but also in case of supply disruptions such as occurred in 2009 during the Russia-Ukraine gas crisis. This paper discusses the impact of these two major gas import pipeline projects on the South-Eastern Europe gas supply and analyzes their effects on gas flows and marginal cost prices in general and in case of gas supply disruptions via Ukraine in a model-based analysis with the European natural gas infrastructure and dispatch model TIGER. (orig.)

Impact of additive manufacturing on aircraft supply chain performance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ghadge, Abhijeet; Karantoni, Georgia; Chaudhuri, Atanu

2018-01-01

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of additive manufacturing (AM) implementation on aircraft supply chain (SC) networks. Additive and conventional manufacturing spare part inventory control systems are studied and compared, revealing insights into SC performance. Design....... Originality/value – The study provides robust evidence for making critical managerial decisions on SC re-design driven by a new and disruptive technology. Next-generation SC and logistics will replace the current demand for fulfilling material products by AM machines. Keywords Performance measurement......, Simulation, Additive manufacturing, Supply chains, Aerospace industry...

International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1991-09-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1992-04-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

How war, drought, and management impact water supply in the Tigris/Euphrates

Science.gov (United States)

Hasan, M.; Moody, A.; Benninger, L. K.

2017-12-01

The fast-paced conflicts in the Middle East have the potential to disrupt management and supply of water resources in the region, particularly on structures such as Mosul and Haditha dams, and the Ramadi and Falluja Barrages, all of which have experienced threats or changes in sovereignty. Water supply is also under pressure from upstream dam management and drought. In this research, we use the normalized difference water index (NDWI) applied to Landsat imagery in order to monitor changes in the extent of various water bodies (1985-present). We looked to see if significant anomalies from expected surface area were best explained by conflict, drought, or dam management. Conflict (though not every conflict) produced the greatest sudden changes in water supply; drought produced the greatest absolute changes, but at a gentle pace. Drought impacts are strongest in the furthest downstream reservoirs. Conflict-driven changes were tied to very specific human manipulations in water supply in order to either advance military objectives, "punish" civilians on the wrong side of the fight, or to prevent humanitarian catastrophe. Satellite images allow for an objective analysis of how strong these manipulations were. The information may not be as exact as on-the-ground information, but when the flow of information is disrupted by war, satellite data can be an alternative source of insights into water supply changes.

Robustness of assembly supply chain networks by considering risk propagation and cascading failure

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Liang; Jing, Ke; He, Jie; Stanley, H. Eugene

2016-10-01

An assembly supply chain network (ASCN) is composed of manufacturers located in different geographical regions. To analyze the robustness of this ASCN when it suffers from catastrophe disruption events, we construct a cascading failure model of risk propagation. In our model, different disruption scenarios s are considered and the probability equation of all disruption scenarios is developed. Using production capability loss as the robustness index (RI) of an ASCN, we conduct a numerical simulation to assess its robustness. Through simulation, we compare the network robustness at different values of linking intensity and node threshold and find that weak linking intensity or high node threshold increases the robustness of the ASCN. We also compare network robustness levels under different disruption scenarios.

Indicators of security of natural gas supply in Asia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cabalu, Helen

2010-01-01

Natural gas has become an increasingly valuable resource and a global commodity. The demand for it has significantly increased. Japan, Korea and Taiwan heavily rely on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports for their gas supplies from Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Australia and the Middle East. On the other hand, countries like Thailand and Singapore import gas via trans-border pipelines. Gas supply interruptions, volatile gas prices, transportation and distribution bottlenecks, and a growing reliance on imports over longer distances have renewed interest on gas security in Asia. This paper examines the relative vulnerability to natural gas supply disruptions of seven gas-importing countries in Asia for year 2008. Based on four indicators of security of gas supply, a composite gas supply security index is estimated as an overall indication of gas vulnerability for our sample countries. The results demonstrate that there are differences in the values of the overall indicator of gas vulnerability among countries and the assessment is useful in developing an effective strategy of natural gas supply security in countries in the Asian region. (author)

Estimating Supply-Chain Burdens in Support of Acquisition Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

2013-03-20

overtaken by the storm ( Drury & Clavin, 2007). A large part of the Germans’ war strategy was to disrupt supply traveling from the U.S. to the UK as well...February). Quadrennial defense review report. Retrieved from http://www.defense.gov/qdr/images/QDR_as_of_12Feb10_1000.pdf Drury , R., & Clavin, T

Food supply chain network robustness : a literature review and research agenda

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vlajic, J.V.; Hendrix, E.M.T.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.

2008-01-01

Today’s business environment is characterized by challenges of strong global competition where companies tend to achieve leanness and maximum responsiveness. However, lean supply chain networks (SCNs) become more vulnerable to all kind of disruptions. Food SCNs have to become robust, i.e. they

Improving Supply Chain Management by enhanced Risk Management to minimize the Impact of Disruptions on Supply Chains

OpenAIRE

Meyer-Larsen, N.; Drupsteen, L.; Gräf, G.; Maier, L.; Müller, R.

2013-01-01

Risk management, which is the identification and analysis of risks and their mitigation, is increasingly becoming a crucial factor in the management of international intermodal supply chains. On the one hand, security risks are addressed, especially since the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001. Several laws, regulations, security procedures and technical measures to improve security were developed by the US, by international organisations and also by the industry. On the other hand, enhan...

Relationship Between Supply Chain Risks: An Empirical Work

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mustafa UNGAN

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Supply chain risk management is turned out to be a critical function for organization around the globe as a consequence of change in technology, economic, environment of organizations. Most companies or organizations view supply chain risk as a disruption of the flow of products or services that meet their requirements and consequently reduce their performance. A literature review for this study indicates that relationship between supply chain risks and developing appropriate mitigation strategies is drawing the attention of practitioners and academics in recent years. However, there is a lack of studies in this field. This paper aims to contribute to fill this gap in the literature by exploring the relationships between supply chain risks in Nigeria. To this end, data were collected 82 companies operating in different industries. Correlation matrices and item to total correlations were used for the analysis. The results indicated that terrorist activity risk is the most perceived supply chain risk in Nigeria. It was also found that many companies can reduce the level of many supply chain risks with an optimum level of capacity and good planning. It is expected that the findings help supply chain managers and policy makers in their decisions.

Pharmaceutical supply chain risks: a systematic review

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Introduction Supply of medicine as a strategic product in any health system is a top priority. Pharmaceutical companies, a major player of the drug supply chain, are subject to many risks. These risks disrupt the supply of medicine in many ways such as their quantity and quality and their delivery to the right place and customers and at the right time. Therefore risk identification in the supply process of pharmaceutical companies and mitigate them is highly recommended. Objective In this study it is attempted to investigate pharmaceutical supply chain risks with perspective of manufacturing companies. Methods Scopus, PubMed, Web of Science bibliographic databases and Google scholar scientific search engines were searched for pharmaceutical supply chain risk management studies with 6 different groups of keywords. All results found by keywords were reviewed and none-relevant articles were excluded by outcome of interests and researcher boundaries of study within 4 steps and through a systematic method. Results Nine articles were included in the systematic review and totally 50 main risks based on study outcome of interest extracted which classified in 7 categories. Most of reported risks were related to supply and supplier issues. Organization and strategy issues, financial, logistic, political, market and regulatory issues were in next level of importance. Conclusion It was shown that the majority of risks in pharmaceutical supply chain were internal risks due to processes, people and functions mismanagement which could be managed by suitable mitigation strategies. PMID:24355166

Pharmaceutical supply chain risks: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaberidoost, Mona; Nikfar, Shekoufeh; Abdollahiasl, Akbar; Dinarvand, Rassoul

2013-12-19

Supply of medicine as a strategic product in any health system is a top priority. Pharmaceutical companies, a major player of the drug supply chain, are subject to many risks. These risks disrupt the supply of medicine in many ways such as their quantity and quality and their delivery to the right place and customers and at the right time. Therefore risk identification in the supply process of pharmaceutical companies and mitigate them is highly recommended. In this study it is attempted to investigate pharmaceutical supply chain risks with perspective of manufacturing companies. Scopus, PubMed, Web of Science bibliographic databases and Google scholar scientific search engines were searched for pharmaceutical supply chain risk management studies with 6 different groups of keywords. All results found by keywords were reviewed and none-relevant articles were excluded by outcome of interests and researcher boundaries of study within 4 steps and through a systematic method. Nine articles were included in the systematic review and totally 50 main risks based on study outcome of interest extracted which classified in 7 categories. Most of reported risks were related to supply and supplier issues. Organization and strategy issues, financial, logistic, political, market and regulatory issues were in next level of importance. It was shown that the majority of risks in pharmaceutical supply chain were internal risks due to processes, people and functions mismanagement which could be managed by suitable mitigation strategies.

Measuring the security of external energy supply in the European Union

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Le Coq, Chloe [SITE, Stockholm School of Economics, P.O. Box 6501, Stockholm 11383 (Sweden); Paltseva, Elena [Department of Economics, Copenhagen University, Oester Farimagsgade 5, Building 26, 1353 Copenhagen (Denmark)

2009-11-15

The security of energy supply is one of the main objectives of EU energy policy. In this paper, we introduce an index designed to evaluate the short-term risks associated with the external supply of energy to the EU Member States. It combines measures of energy import diversification, political risks of the supplying country, risk associated with energy transit, and the economic impact of a supply disruption. We construct separate indexes for three primary energy types, oil, gas and coal, and demonstrate that Member States' levels of supply risk exposure differ across energies. Most other studies of this kind provide aggregate indexes combining different types of energy. Our results suggest that an aggregate approach could be misleading, at least for discussions of the short-term response to risks. We discuss the implications of our findings for the common energy policy. (author)

Measuring the security of external energy supply in the European Union

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Le Coq, Chloe; Paltseva, Elena

2009-01-01

The security of energy supply is one of the main objectives of EU energy policy. In this paper, we introduce an index designed to evaluate the short-term risks associated with the external supply of energy to the EU Member States. It combines measures of energy import diversification, political risks of the supplying country, risk associated with energy transit, and the economic impact of a supply disruption. We construct separate indexes for three primary energy types, oil, gas and coal, and demonstrate that Member States' levels of supply risk exposure differ across energies. Most other studies of this kind provide aggregate indexes combining different types of energy. Our results suggest that an aggregate approach could be misleading, at least for discussions of the short-term response to risks. We discuss the implications of our findings for the common energy policy. (author)

Feedstock and Conversion Supply System Design and Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jacobson, J. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mohammad, R. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Cafferty, K. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kenney, K. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Searcy, E. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Hansen, J. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2014-09-01

The success of the earlier logistic pathway designs (Biochemical and Thermochemical) from a feedstock perspective was that it demonstrated that through proper equipment selection and best management practices, conventional supply systems (referred to in this report as “conventional designs,” or specifically the 2012 Conventional Design) can be successfully implemented to address dry matter loss, quality issues, and enable feedstock cost reductions that help to reduce feedstock risk of variable supply and quality and enable industry to commercialize biomass feedstock supply chains. The caveat of this success is that conventional designs depend on high density, low-cost biomass with no disruption from incremental weather. In this respect, the success of conventional designs is tied to specific, highly productive regions such as the southeastern U.S. which has traditionally supported numerous pulp and paper industries or the Midwest U.S for corn stover.

The Impact of Operating Room Layout on Circulating Nurse's Work Patterns and Flow Disruptions: A Behavioral Mapping Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bayramzadeh, Sara; Joseph, Anjali; San, Dee; Khoshkenar, Amin; Taaffe, Kevin; Jafarifiroozabadi, Roxana; Neyens, David M

2018-01-01

To assess how the adjacencies of functionally different areas within operating rooms (ORs) can influence the circulating nurse's (CN) workflow patterns and disruptions. The CN plays a significant role in promoting patient safety during surgical procedures by observing, monitoring, and managing potential threats at and around the surgical field. Their work requires constant movement to different parts of the OR to support team members. The layout of the OR and crowded and cluttered environment might impact the CN's workflow and cause disruptions during the surgery. A convenience sample of 25 surgeries were video recorded and thematically coded for CN's activities, locations, and flow disruptions. The OR layout was categorized into transitional zones and functional zones (workstations, supply zones, support zones, and sterile areas around the surgical table). CN's activities were classified into patient-, equipment-, material-, and information-related activities. Flow disruptions included those related to environmental hazards and layout. The CN traveled through multiple zones during 91% of the activities. The CN's workstation acted as a main hub from which the CN made frequent trips to both sides of the surgical table, the foot of the OR table, supply zones, and support zones. Transitional zones accounted for 58.3% of all flow disruption that the CN was involved in whereas 28% occurred in areas surrounding the OR bed. The similarity of the movement and flow disruption patterns, despite variations in OR layout, highlighted the adjacencies required between major zones that CNs regularly visit. These optimum adjacencies should be considered while designing ORs such that they are more efficient and safer.

Hacking cyber-risks back in their tracks: to identify the right supply chain controls, look at the system

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sepúlveda, Daniel; Khan, Omera

2015-01-01

A more comprehensive way of looking at cyber-risks in supply chains is required, when considering the increasing complexity of the supply networks and the exposure to unexpected disruptions, caused by cyber-attacks. This article describes some of the reasons why current risk assessment methods ar...

Silicon to syringe: Cryptomarkets and disruptive innovation in opioid supply chains.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilbert, Michael; Dasgupta, Nabarun

2017-08-01

Cryptomarkets offer insight into the evolving interplay between online black markets and cartel-based distribution. The types and forms of heroin, fentanyl, and prescription drugs show wide diversification. In this commentary we describe changes in the conceptualizations, technologies and structures of drug supply chains in the 21st Century, with special attention to the role of cryptomarkets as tools, contexts, and drivers of innovation in public health research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Investigating Disruption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lundgaard, Stine Schmieg; Rosenstand, Claus Andreas Foss

This book shares knowledge collected from 2015 and onward within the Consortium for Digital Disruption anchored at Aalborg University (www.dd.aau.dk). Evidenced by this publication, the field of disruptive innovation research has gone through several stages of operationalizing the theory. In recent...... years, researchers are increasingly looking back towards the origins of the theory in attempts to cure it from its most obvious flaws. This is especially true for the use of the theory in making predictions about future disruptions. In order to continue to develop a valuable theory of disruption, we...... find it useful to first review what the theory of disruptive innovation initially was, how it has developed, and where we are now. A cross section of disruptive innovation literature has been reviewed in order to form a general foundation from which we might better understand the changing world...

Disruptive technologies in higher education

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Flavin

2012-08-01

Full Text Available This paper analyses the role of “disruptive” innovative technologies in higher education. In this country and elsewhere, Higher Education Institutions (HEIs have invested significant sums in learning technologies, with Virtual Learning Environments (VLEs being more or less universal, but these technologies have not been universally adopted and used by students and staff. Instead, other technologies not owned or controlled by HEIs are widely used to support learning and teaching. According to Christensen's theory of Disruptive Innovation, these disruptive technologies are not designed explicitly to support learning and teaching in higher education, but have educational potential. This study uses Activity Theory and Expansive Learning to analyse data regarding the impact of disruptive technologies. The data were obtained through a questionnaire survey about awareness and use of technologies, and through observation and interviews, exploring participants’ actual practice. The survey answers tended to endorse Disruptive Innovation theory, with participants establishing meanings for technologies through their use of them, rather than in keeping with a designer's intentions. Observation revealed that learners use a narrow range of technologies to support learning, but with a tendency to use resources other than those supplied by their HEIs. Interviews showed that participants use simple and convenient technologies to support their learning and teaching. This study identifies a contradiction between learning technologies made available by HEIs, and technologies used in practice. There is no evidence to suggest that a wide range of technologies is being used to support learning and teaching. Instead, a small range of technologies is being used for a wide range of tasks. Students and lecturers are not dependent on their HEIs to support learning and teaching. Instead, they self-select technologies, with use weighted towards established brands. The

Supply disruptions and regional price effects in a spatial oligopoly. An application to the global gas market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Growitsch, Christian; Hecking, Harald; Panke, Timo

2013-01-01

Supply shocks in the global gas market may affect countries differently, as the market is regionally interlinked but not perfectly integrated. Additionally, high supply-side concentration may expose countries to market power in different ways. To evaluate the strategic position of importing countries with regard to gas supplies, we disentangle import price components into increasing and decreasing factors. Due to the complexity of the interrelations in the global gas market, we use an equilibrium model programmed as a mixed complementarity problem (MCP) and simulate the blockage of LNG ows through the Strait of Hormuz. This enables us to account for the oligopolistic nature and the asymmetry of the gas supply. We find that Japan faces the most severe price increases, as the Japanese gas demand completely relies on LNG supply. In contrast, European countries such as the UK benefit from good interconnection to the continental pipeline system and domestic pricetaking production, both of which help to mitigate an increase in physical costs of supply as well as in the exercise of market power.

Present status of 99Mo/99mTc supply in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamashita, Takashi; Nakamura, Yoshihide

2017-01-01

The use of medical radioisotopes is an important part of modern medical practice. Disruptions in the radioisotope supply chain can disturb the availability of medical testing for millions of patients around the world. The NEA established the High-level Group on the Security of Supply of Medical Radioisotopes (HLG-MR) in 2009. During the 2009-2010 period, there were substantial shortages, but in the period since 2011 there have been only a limited number of minor supply shortages of the most widely used medical radioisotope. Japan does not have a reactor for 99 Mo production or a processing facility, and has been considering a number of alternative technology approaches to produce material domestically. (author)

Digital Disruption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosenstand, Claus Andreas Foss

det digitale domæne ud over det niveau, der kendetegner den nuværende debat, så præsenteres der ny viden om digital disruption. Som noget nyt udlægges Clayton Christens teori om disruptiv innovation med et særligt fokus på små organisationers mulighed for eksponentiel vækst. Specielt udfoldes...... forholdet mellem disruption og den stadig accelererende digitale udvikling i konturerne til ny teoridannelse om digital disruption. Bogens undertitel ”faretruende og fascinerende forandringer” peger på, at der er behov for en nuanceret debat om digital disruption i modsætning til den tone, der er slået an i...... videre kalder et ”disruption-råd”. Faktisk er rådet skrevet ind i 2016 regeringsgrundlaget for VLK-regeringen. Disruption af organisationer er ikke et nyt fænomen; men hastigheden, hvormed det sker, er stadig accelererende. Årsagen er den globale mega-trend: Digitalisering. Og derfor er specielt digital...

Regulation of replication fork progression through histone supply and demand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Groth, Anja; Corpet, Armelle; Cook, Adam J L

2007-01-01

DNA replication in eukaryotes requires nucleosome disruption ahead of the replication fork and reassembly behind. An unresolved issue concerns how histone dynamics are coordinated with fork progression to maintain chromosomal stability. Here, we characterize a complex in which the human histone c...... progression and histone supply and demand.......1 chaperone function, histone supply, and replicative unwinding of DNA in chromatin. We propose that Asf1, as a histone acceptor and donor, handles parental and new histones at the replication fork via an Asf1-(H3-H4)-MCM2-7 intermediate and thus provides a means to fine-tune replication fork...

NEA activities on medical isotope supply issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Westmacott, C.; Vance, R.

2009-01-01

Medical radioisotopes play a vital role in modern medical practices. One of their principal uses is for nuclear diagnostic imaging techniques. These techniques are powerful and non-invasive, allowing the identification of common diseases such as heart conditions and cancer at an early stage, tracking disease progression and providing predictive information about likely success of a therapy. Such techniques enable precise and accurate management of the disease and may significantly assist in the medical decision-making process, for example removing the need for surgical intervention to obtain diagnostic information. Every year, 46 million people are estimated to benefit globally from such nuclear medicine testing. However, over the last few years there have been a number of supply shortages of Molybdenum-99 (Mo-99) and its decay product, Technetium-99m (Tc-99m), the most widely used medical radioisotope. These isotopes decay within a matter of days; therefore they must be produced continually in order to meet demand. Most recently, the unexpected extended shutdown of Canada's NRU research reactor - which produces approximately 35 percent of world Mo-99 supply - has compounded existing concerns regarding the supply reliability of these medical radioisotopes. Currently, five reactors between 42 and 52 years old produce over 95 percent of the world's supply of Mo-99 and face challenges in maintaining a continuous supply to the health community. As outlined above, disruptions in this supply chain have affected the availability of vital medical testing for millions of patients around the world. On 29-30 January 2009, the NEA hosted a workshop on Security of Supply of Medical Radioisotopes at the request of the Government of Canada. The workshop assembled an international group of experts to identify challenges faced in providing a reliable supply of Mo-99 and Tc-99m and measures that should be taken to ensure such reliability. Workshop participants discussed a wide

Impact of the 2013 National Rollout of CMS Competitive Bidding Program: The Disruption Continues.

Science.gov (United States)

Puckrein, Gary A; Hirsch, Irl B; Parkin, Christopher G; Taylor, Bruce T; Xu, Liou; Marrero, David G

2018-05-01

Use of glucose monitoring is essential to the safety of individuals with insulin-treated diabetes. In 2011, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) implemented the Medicare Competitive Bidding Program (CBP) in nine test markets. This resulted in a substantial disruption of beneficiary access to self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) supplies and significant increases in the percentage of beneficiaries with either reduced or no acquisition of supplies. These reductions were significantly associated with increased mortality, hospitalizations, and costs. The CBP was implemented nationally in July 2013. We evaluated the impact of this rollout to determine if the adverse outcomes seen in 2011 persisted. This longitudinal study followed 529,627 insulin-treated beneficiaries from 2009 through 2013 to assess changes in beneficiary acquisition of testing supplies in the initial nine test markets (TEST, n = 43,939) and beneficiaries not affected by the 2011 rollout (NONTEST, n = 485,688). All Medicare beneficiary records for analysis were obtained from CMS. The percentages of beneficiaries with partial/no SMBG acquisition were significantly higher in both the TEST (37.4%) and NONTEST (37.6%) groups after the first 6 months of the national CBP rollout, showing increases of 48.1% and 60.0%, respectively (both P < 0.0001). The percentage of beneficiaries with no record for SMBG acquisition increased from 54.1% in January 2013 to 62.5% by December 2013. Disruption of beneficiary access to their prescribed SMBG supplies has persisted and worsened. Diabetes testing supplies should be excluded from the CBP until transparent, science-based methodologies for safety monitoring are adopted and implemented. © 2017 by the American Diabetes Association.

Disruption?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

2016-01-01

This is a short video on the theme disruption and entrepreneurship. It takes the form of an interview with John Murray......This is a short video on the theme disruption and entrepreneurship. It takes the form of an interview with John Murray...

The future of medical isotope supply - 2017 status update

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charlton, Kevin; )

2017-01-01

In April 2014, the NEA analysed likely future market demand and projected production capacity for "9"9Mo. This research identified a period beyond 2016 of increased risk when further supply disruption could result from a number of ageing supply chain participants ending their activities. The analysis also examined the likely deployment of potential new capacity and confirmed that the introduction of new capacity would be vital to ensure security of supply. Concerns were expressed at the time about the possibility of potential new facilities experiencing project delays. The overall conclusion was that 2017 would represent the start of a period of particular risk, with a likely nadir in production capacity as a result of planned facility closures and project delays. In 2017, the NEA is pleased to report that market participants have reacted positively to the concerns identified in 2014

Analysis of electricity supply-demand balance scenarios for the winter of 2013-2014. A satisfactory situation, with a moderate risk of supply disruption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

Twice a year, RTE publishes a forecast study of the electricity supply and demand in continental France for the summer and winter periods. The study is based on the information supplied by electric utilities concerning the expected availability of power generation means and on statistical meteorological models. Safety margins are calculated using thousands of probabilistic scenarios combining various production and consumption situations. This report is the forecast study for the winter of 2013-2014

Analysis of electricity supply-demand balance scenarios for the winter of 2012-2013. A satisfactory situation, with a moderate risk of supply disruption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-01-01

Twice a year, RTE publishes a forecast study of the electricity supply and demand in continental France for the summer and winter periods. The study is based on the information supplied by electric utilities concerning the expected availability of power generation means and on statistical meteorological models. Safety margins are calculated using thousands of probabilistic scenarios combining various production and consumption situations. This report is the forecast study for the winter of 2012-2013

Infrastructure, Attitude and Weather: Today’s Threats to Supply Chain Security

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen Blank

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The global economy can be viewed today as a myriad of border-crossing supply chain networks of production, supply, distribution and marketing systems. Given the enormous value embodied in these systems, and an environment increasingly characterized by uncertainty and vulnerability, it is not surprising that concern about supply chain security has intensified. Concern takes many forms. For example, how supply chains might be used as vehicles for criminal activity (smuggling, trafficking of narcotics and importing counterfeit goods or acts of terrorism (radio-active materials, bombs, even nukes in containers. Technology-based threats to supply chains, such as cybercrimes, data breaches and IT failures, now appear more frequently in the literature on supply chain security. These threats could result in substantial disruption to supply chains and damage to companies and their customers.Clima But larger storms are brewing, whose menace to supply chain security is greater still – and where actions to protect supply chains move more slowly. These include the continued deterioration of transportation infrastructure, a new posture on trade which views supply chains as threats to jobs and wages, and the impact of climate change. These threats do not lie off in the distant future; they are threats of today and tomorrow.

Supply Chain Vulnerability Analysis Using Scenario-Based Input-Output Modeling: Application to Port Operations.

Science.gov (United States)

Thekdi, Shital A; Santos, Joost R

2016-05-01

Disruptive events such as natural disasters, loss or reduction of resources, work stoppages, and emergent conditions have potential to propagate economic losses across trade networks. In particular, disruptions to the operation of container port activity can be detrimental for international trade and commerce. Risk assessment should anticipate the impact of port operation disruptions with consideration of how priorities change due to uncertain scenarios and guide investments that are effective and feasible for implementation. Priorities for protective measures and continuity of operations planning must consider the economic impact of such disruptions across a variety of scenarios. This article introduces new performance metrics to characterize resiliency in interdependency modeling and also integrates scenario-based methods to measure economic sensitivity to sudden-onset disruptions. The methods will be demonstrated on a U.S. port responsible for handling $36.1 billion of cargo annually. The methods will be useful to port management, private industry supply chain planning, and transportation infrastructure management. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Pharmaceutical supply chain risk assessment in Iran using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and simple additive weighting (SAW) methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaberidoost, Mona; Olfat, Laya; Hosseini, Alireza; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas; Abdollahi, Mohammad; Alaeddini, Mahdi; Dinarvand, Rassoul

2015-01-01

Pharmaceutical supply chain is a significant component of the health system in supplying medicines, particularly in countries where main drugs are provided by local pharmaceutical companies. No previous studies exist assessing risks and disruptions in pharmaceutical companies while assessing the pharmaceutical supply chain. Any risks affecting the pharmaceutical companies could disrupt supply medicines and health system efficiency. The goal of this study was the risk assessment in pharmaceutical industry in Iran considering process's priority, hazard and probability of risks. The study was carried out in 4 phases; risk identification through literature review, risk identification in Iranian pharmaceutical companies through interview with experts, risk analysis through a questionnaire and consultation with experts using group analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and rating scale (RS) and risk evaluation of simple additive weighting (SAW) method. In total, 86 main risks were identified in the pharmaceutical supply chain with perspective of pharmaceutical companies classified in 11 classes. The majority of risks described in this study were related to the financial and economic category. Also financial management was found to be the most important factor for consideration. Although pharmaceutical industry and supply chain were affected by current political conditions in Iran during the study time, but half of total risks in the pharmaceutical supply chain were found to be internal risks which could be fixed by companies, internally. Likewise, political status and related risks forced companies to focus more on financial and supply management resulting in less attention to quality management.

The Path to a Reliable Supply of Medical Radioisotopes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gas, Serge; Westmacott, Chad; Cameron, Ron; Lokhov, Alexey

2011-06-01

Medical imaging techniques using technetium-99m account for roughly 80% of all nuclear medicine procedures, representing over 30 million examinations worldwide every year. Disruptions in the supply chain of these medical isotopes - which have half-lives of 66 hours for molybdenum-99 ( 99 Mo) and 6 hours for technetium-99m ( 99m Tc), and thus must be produced continually - can lead to cancellations or delays in important medical testing services. Unfortunately, supply reliability has declined over the past decade, due to unexpected or extended shutdowns at the few ageing, 99 Mo-producing, research reactors and processing facilities. These shutdowns have created global supply shortages. At the request of its member countries, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) established the High-level Group on the Security of Supply of Medical Radioisotopes (HLG-MR) in 2009. During its two-year mandate, the HLG-MR assessed the factors rendering the supply chain vulnerable and identified practical measures - near, medium and long term - to ensure the security of supply of this important medical isotope. Building on its findings and assessments, the HLG-MR developed a comprehensive policy approach to encourage long-term supply security of 99 Mo/' 99m Tc, detailing the essential steps to be taken by governments, industry and the health community to address the vulnerabilities within the supply chain, including changing an economic structure that does not support or reinforce reliable supply

Towards a supply chain cyber-risk and resilience research agenda - a systematic literature review

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sepúlveda Estay, Daniel Alberto; Khan, Omera

The increased dependence of supply chains on information technology has exacerbated the impact of cyber risks (Dedrick et al., 2008), ranging from the breach of data confidentiality, to the destruction of data and the disruption of supply operations. There is a robust body of knowledge, which has...... a systematic review of the literature (Tranfield et al., 2003). Specifically the focus is on 1) developing a definition for cyber resilience in the supply chain, and 2) suggesting a research agenda for this area....... allowed the development of models, frameworks, tools and techniques to understand and manage supply chain risk (Khan et al., 2007). However, the evaluation of cyber risks and resilience in the supply chain has been less explored. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the gap in theory through...

Evaluation of the BRV 10 diesel engine disruption of the multi purpose reactor G.A Siwabessy reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asep Saepuloh; Kiswanto; Muh Taufiq; Yuyut, S.

2014-01-01

Diesel generator is one of the important components of emergency electrical power supply when the main power supply is disrupted. Unable to operation of diesel engines will have a serious impact to the operation of the reactor. This paper aims to evaluate the cause of disruption of the diesel generator BRV10 at the Multi Purpose Reactor GA Siwabessy occurred in 2014. This event makes enough attention because its cause is deemed unusual. Evaluation is done by investigating the causes of the disorder, do the repair, test functions and anticipate that similar events do not recur in the future. From the results of the evaluation of the causes of disorders known that diesel is a diesel mixing with water and mud that had buried long estimated in the diesel engine fuel tank. Is believed to cause the fuel tank care is less than optimal. (author)

Travel demand policies for saving oil during a supply emergency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noland, Robert B.; Cowart, William A.; Fulton, Lewis M.

2006-01-01

An area of growing concern is the future stability of oil producing regions and the ability to maintain stability in international petroleum markets. The transport sector, in particular, is extremely vulnerable to short-term supply disruptions with consequent implications on economic activities in most countries. This paper analyses potential transport demand restraint strategies that could potentially mitigate the impact of short-term supply disruptions. Our analysis includes estimates of the potential fuel savings from several policies. Specifically, we examine various work-based policies (telecommuting, flexible work schedules), the potential of carpooling, speed limit reductions, driving bans and restrictions, increased public transport usage, and providing information on the effect of maintaining optimal tire pressures. The analysis uses various assumptions based on existing knowledge about how travelers may respond under emergency conditions to develop estimates of potential fuel savings. Results suggest that the most restrictive policies, such as driving bans and mandatory carpooling are the most effective. Other policies provide small reductions with some, such as telecommuting and flexible work schedules, having the potential to be easily implemented. Those policies, focussed on encouraging public transport use, are less effective and potentially more costly to implement

Travel demand policies for saving oil during a supply emergency

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Noland, Robert B. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Centre for Transport Studies, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: r.noland@imperial.ac.uk; Cowart, William A. [ICF Consulting, Ltd., Egmont House, 25-31 Tavistock Place, Bloomsbury, London, WC1H 9SU (United Kingdom); Fulton, Lewis M. [International Energy Agency, 9 Rue de la Federation, Paris 75015 (France)

2006-11-15

An area of growing concern is the future stability of oil producing regions and the ability to maintain stability in international petroleum markets. The transport sector, in particular, is extremely vulnerable to short-term supply disruptions with consequent implications on economic activities in most countries. This paper analyses potential transport demand restraint strategies that could potentially mitigate the impact of short-term supply disruptions. Our analysis includes estimates of the potential fuel savings from several policies. Specifically, we examine various work-based policies (telecommuting, flexible work schedules), the potential of carpooling, speed limit reductions, driving bans and restrictions, increased public transport usage, and providing information on the effect of maintaining optimal tire pressures. The analysis uses various assumptions based on existing knowledge about how travelers may respond under emergency conditions to develop estimates of potential fuel savings. Results suggest that the most restrictive policies, such as driving bans and mandatory carpooling are the most effective. Other policies provide small reductions with some, such as telecommuting and flexible work schedules, having the potential to be easily implemented. Those policies, focussed on encouraging public transport use, are less effective and potentially more costly to implement.

What is the place of the energy supply security and energy independence in the energy policy?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-12-01

Since the petroleum crisis and the electric power cuts of the 1999 storm, the energy security interest is growing. The author recall the structural risks of the energy systems and the vulnerability of the occidental economies to the supply disruptions. They propose then a long term cooperation between producer and consumer countries, a development of operational tools to face the crisis and a supply security inside the europe. (A.L.B.)

Managing perceived operational risk factors for effective supply-chain management

Science.gov (United States)

Sylla, Cheickna

2014-12-01

This research is part of a large scale comprehensive mathematical and empirical modeling investigation projects aimed at developing a better understanding of supply-chain risk management by offering a comprehensive framework including theoretical elements and empirical evidence based on managers' perception of improved organizational level of preparedness to safeguard against the threats of disruptions, delays and stoppage in the supply chain. More specifically, this paper reports the empirical investigation conducted using 92 companies in several eastern USA regions involved in international trades with global supply chains. Among the 56 general hypotheses investigated, the results support that managers strive to balance their control and decision impacts to mold their responses to risk factors with knowledge of the extent of cost consequences as stated in previous research. However, the results also propose new findings which significantly vary from previous research reports.

Disruptions in JET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wesson, J.A.; Gill, R.D.; Hugon, M.

1989-01-01

In JET, both high density and low-q operation are limited by disruptions. The density limit disruptions are caused initially by impurity radiation. This causes a contraction of the plasma temperature profile and leads to an MHD unstable configuration. There is evidence of magnetic island formation resulting in minor disruptions. After several minor disruptions, a major disruption with a rapid energy quench occurs. This event takes place in two stages. In the first stage there is a loss of energy from the central region. In the second stage there is a more rapid drop to a very low temperature, apparently due to a dramatic increase in impurity radiation. The final current decay takes place in the resulting cold plasma. During the growth of the MHD instability the initially rotating mode is brought to rest. This mode locking is believed to be due to an electromagnetic interaction with the vacuum vessel and external magnetic field asymmetries. The low-q disruptions are remarkable for the precision with which they occur at q ψ = 2. These disruptions do not have extended precursors or minor disruptions. The instability grows and locks rapidly. The energy quench and current decay are generally similar to those of the density limit. (author). 43 refs, 35 figs, 3 tabs

Prevention of the current-quench phase of a major disruption in a tokamak reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, J.B.

1987-01-01

The 2-D Tokamak Simulation Code written by the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory was joined to a 3-D eddy-current code, which models periodic torus sectors. The combined system was found to be an efficient and accurate method for modeling the plasma/eddy current interaction during a major disruption. For modeling large highly compartmentalized structures, artificially increasing the self-inductance and limiting the mutual inductance of current elements were necessary to enhance numerical stability. Even with these modifications, a slowly growing instability made the results unreliable after 58 ms. This model was used to demonstrate prevention of the current quench phase of a major disruption in INTOR. The average plasma temperature was reduced to 150 eV over 3 ms. The (outboard) breeding blanket structure was constructed of CuBeNi and was electrically connected between torus sectors. Disruption recovery coils were provided inboard of the inboard shield (linking the toroidal field coils). It was necessary to supply to these coils a total of 500 MW for 0.6 s and to reheat the plasma to full beta in 6 s. The calculation shows a method of recovery from the most severe disruption probable. Determining the severity of the disruption from which recovery would be cost effective is beyond the scope of this study

Petroleum and Health Care: Evaluating and Managing Health Care's Vulnerability to Petroleum Supply Shifts

Science.gov (United States)

Bednarz, Daniel; Bae, Jaeyong; Pierce, Jessica

2011-01-01

Petroleum is used widely in health care—primarily as a transport fuel and feedstock for pharmaceuticals, plastics, and medical supplies—and few substitutes for it are available. This dependence theoretically makes health care vulnerable to petroleum supply shifts, but this vulnerability has not been empirically assessed. We quantify key aspects of petroleum use in health care and explore historical associations between petroleum supply shocks and health care prices. These analyses confirm that petroleum products are intrinsic to modern health care and that petroleum supply shifts can affect health care prices. In anticipation of future supply contractions lasting longer than previous shifts and potentially disrupting health care delivery, we propose an adaptive management approach and outline its application to the example of emergency medical services. PMID:21778473

Traceability and Risk Analysis Strategies for Addressing Counterfeit Electronics in Supply Chains for Complex Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

DiMase, Daniel; Collier, Zachary A; Carlson, Jinae; Gray, Robin B; Linkov, Igor

2016-10-01

Within the microelectronics industry, there is a growing concern regarding the introduction of counterfeit electronic parts into the supply chain. Even though this problem is widespread, there have been limited attempts to implement risk-based approaches for testing and supply chain management. Supply chain risk management tends to focus on the highly visible disruptions of the supply chain instead of the covert entrance of counterfeits; thus counterfeit risk is difficult to mitigate. This article provides an overview of the complexities of the electronics supply chain, and highlights some gaps in risk assessment practices. In particular, this article calls for enhanced traceability capabilities to track and trace parts at risk through various stages of the supply chain. Placing the focus on risk-informed decision making through the following strategies is needed, including prioritization of high-risk parts, moving beyond certificates of conformance, incentivizing best supply chain management practices, adoption of industry standards, and design and management for supply chain resilience. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Digital disruption ?syndromes.

Science.gov (United States)

Sullivan, Clair; Staib, Andrew

2017-05-18

The digital transformation of hospitals in Australia is occurring rapidly in order to facilitate innovation and improve efficiency. Rapid transformation can cause temporary disruption of hospital workflows and staff as processes are adapted to the new digital workflows. The aim of this paper is to outline various types of digital disruption and some strategies for effective management. A large tertiary university hospital recently underwent a rapid, successful roll-out of an integrated electronic medical record (EMR). We observed this transformation and propose several digital disruption "syndromes" to assist with understanding and management during digital transformation: digital deceleration, digital transparency, digital hypervigilance, data discordance, digital churn and post-digital 'depression'. These 'syndromes' are defined and discussed in detail. Successful management of this temporary digital disruption is important to ensure a successful transition to a digital platform. What is known about this topic? Digital disruption is defined as the changes facilitated by digital technologies that occur at a pace and magnitude that disrupt established ways of value creation, social interactions, doing business and more generally our thinking. Increasing numbers of Australian hospitals are implementing digital solutions to replace traditional paper-based systems for patient care in order to create opportunities for improved care and efficiencies. Such large scale change has the potential to create transient disruption to workflows and staff. Managing this temporary disruption effectively is an important factor in the successful implementation of an EMR. What does this paper add? A large tertiary university hospital recently underwent a successful rapid roll-out of an integrated electronic medical record (EMR) to become Australia's largest digital hospital over a 3-week period. We observed and assisted with the management of several cultural, behavioural and

Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.

Science.gov (United States)

Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

2010-11-01

Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience.

EU Security of Gas Supplies: Solidarity Runs Through the Pipeline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aoun, Marie-Claire; Rutten, Daan

2016-05-01

The ongoing efforts to lessen the European Union's (EU) vulnerability to gas shortages by adopting internal measures were triggered by the Ukrainian gas disputes of 2006 and 2009. The latter deprived several EU Member States of 20% of their gas supplies (30% of imports) for 14 days in the middle of winter due to tensions with Russia. This prompted Member States in 2010 to adopt a Regulation for the Security of Gas Supply, replacing the skeletal 2004 Directive. Since 2014, tensions have increased significantly between the EU and Russia, the block's main gas supplier. Although this has not led to any gas supply disruptions in Europe, and this time Ukraine has been able to revert to reverse flows, national production and storage withdrawals to replace the Russian gas flows, there remains a perceived elevated risk of gas supply disruptions to the EU, especially by certain Member States. This led the European Commission (EC) to publish its first-ever European Energy Security Strategy in May 2014, which was followed by the Gas Stress Tests of October 2014. In February 2015, the EC published its Energy Union Strategy Framework, which was strongly motivated by energy security concerns. In that context, the EC announced a series of proposals for its gas and electricity markets in 2016 and 2017, among which was the 'Sustainable Energy Security Package' (hereafter: Package). This Package, published in February 2016, consists of four proposals. Two of them have a legislative nature, namely a Regulation for Security of Gas Supply and a Decision on Intergovernmental Agreements on energy. The two non-legislative proposals are strategy papers dealing respectively with LNG and Gas Storage, and Heating and Cooling. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the proposed Regulation and to offer considerations on some of its provisions, in particular on the move from the national to the regional level of cooperation and on the legislative formalization of solidarity. (author)

A comparison of oil supply risks in EU, US, Japan, China and India under different climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moerkerk, Mike van; Crijns-Graus, Wina

2016-01-01

For many countries, the inflow of energy is essential to keep economies running. Oil is typically considered to be the most critical fuel as an input for the petro-chemical and transportation sector and due to limited and less spread reserves. In this study external oil supply risks are assessed for the period up to 2035 for the European Union, United States, China, Japan and India (being the five largest importers of oil in the world), based on their current supplier portfolio. Scenarios are constructed for several climate policy and oil-supply projections. It is found that risks increase strongly, when stringent climate policies are prevented from being implemented, especially when a peak in oil supply is taken into account, resulting in major oil supply-disruptions. China faces the lowest oil supply risks in most scenarios but the trends of India, China and US converge over time due to increasing import dependency of China and India. Japan faces high risks since the country has the highest oil import dependency combined with a low oil import diversification. For the EU, all figures are strongly influenced by Russia, accounting for 32% of total imports, and to a lesser extent Norway (11%), with high overall risks. - Highlights: • External oil supply risks are assessed up to 2035 under different scenarios. • Included countries are EU, US, China, Japan and India (largest importers of oil). • India, China and EU show increasing oil supply risks in all scenarios. • Strong climate policies are needed to reduce future risks. • A constructed peak oil scenario predicts major oil supply disruptions.

Treatment of Osteomyelitis: A Case for Disruption of the Affected Adjacent Periosteum.

Science.gov (United States)

Hudson, John W; Daly, Austin P; Foster, Michael

2017-10-01

To evaluate the response of mandibular osteomyelitis treated by surgical decortication with disruption of the affected adjacent periosteum in concert with long-term targeted antibiotic therapy. The hypothesis is that, by removing the buccal cortical plate and disrupting the hypertrophically inflamed adjacent periosteum, the medullary bone will be brought in contact with bleeding tissue and circulating immunologic factors and antibiotics, which will promote definitive resolution. A retrospective review was conducted of 7 patient charts with associated radiographs from November 2010 to August 2016 treated by the first author at the University of Tennessee Medical Center (Knoxville, TN). Patients with chronic suppurative or nonsuppurative osteomyelitis of the mandible without condylar involvement or pathologic fracture were selected and treated with decortication with periosteal disruption in combination with long-term targeted antibiotic therapy. Seven patients (3 women and 4 men; mean age, 60 yr) underwent decortication with periosteal disruption of the affected area and received at least 6 weeks of targeted intravenous antibiotics. Computed tomography was performed preoperatively and a repeat study was performed after completion of antibiotics. In each case, post-treatment imaging showed definitive resolution after treatment with decortication in concert with disruption of the inflamed hypertrophic periosteum and intravenous antibiotics. Debridement of the infected cortical bone with restoration of the blood supply through disruption of the adjacent periosteum provided definitive resolution of mandibular osteomyelitis in the 7 patients treated. The hypothesis is that disruption of the affected adjacent periosteum reintroduces an immune-mediated response in concert with improved antibiotic delivery to and penetrance of the diseased mandible, aiding in definitive resolution. Decortication with periosteal disruption allows for preservation of the inferior alveolar

Optimizing Diamond Structured Automobile Supply Chain Network Towards a Robust Business Continuity Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abednico Montshiwa

2016-02-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an optimized diamond structured automobile supply chain network towards a robust Business Continuity Management model. The model is necessitated by the nature of the automobile supply chain. Companies in tier two are centralized and numerically limited and have to supply multiple tier one companies with goods and services. The challenge with this supply chain structure is the inherent risks in the supply chain. Once supply chain disruption takes place at tier 2 level, the whole supply chain network suffers huge loses. To address this challenge, the paper replaces Risk Analysis with Risk Ranking and it introduces Supply Chain Cooperation (SCC to the traditional Business Continuity Plan (BCP concept. The paper employed three statistical analysis techniques (correlation analysis, regression analysis and Smart PLS 3.0 calculations. In this study, correlation and regression analysis results on risk rankings, SCC and Business Impact Analysis were significant, ascertaining the value of the model. The multivariate data analysis calculations demonstrated that SCC has a positive total significant effect on risk rankings and BCM while BIA has strongest positive effects on all BCP factors. Finally, sensitivity analysis demonstrated that company size plays a role in BCM.

Disruptions in Tokamaks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bondeson, A.

1987-01-01

This paper discusses major and minor disruptions in Tokamaks. A number of models and numerical simulations of disruptions based on resistive MHD are reviewed. A discussion is given of how disruptive current profiles are correlated with the experimentally known operational limits in density and current. It is argued that the q a =2 limit is connected with stabilization of the m=2/n=1 tearing mode for a approx.< 2.7 by resistive walls and mode rotation. Experimental and theoretical observations indicate that major disruptions usually occur in at least two phases, first a 'predisruption', or loss of confinement in the region 1 < q < 2, leaving the q approx.= 1 region almost unaffected, followed by a final disruption of the central part, interpreted here as a toroidal n = 1 external kink mode. (author)

Predicting Hidden Links in Supply Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Brintrup

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Manufacturing companies often lack visibility of the procurement interdependencies between the suppliers within their supply network. However, knowledge of these interdependencies is useful to plan for potential operational disruptions. In this paper, we develop the Supply Network Link Predictor (SNLP method to infer supplier interdependencies using the manufacturer’s incomplete knowledge of the network. SNLP uses topological data to extract relational features from the known network to train a classifier for predicting potential links. Using a test case from the automotive industry, four features are extracted: (i number of existing supplier links, (ii overlaps between supplier product portfolios, (iii product outsourcing associations, and (iv likelihood of buyers purchasing from two suppliers together. Naïve Bayes and Logistic Regression are then employed to predict whether these features can help predict interdependencies between two suppliers. Our results show that these features can indeed be used to predict interdependencies in the network and that predictive accuracy is maximised by (i and (iii. The findings give rise to the exciting possibility of using data analytics for improving supply chain visibility. We then proceed to discuss to what extent such approaches can be adopted and their limitations, highlighting next steps for future work in this area.

European Union's efforts to sustain the supply of 99Mo

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Remigiusz Baranczyk; Stamatios Tsalas; Turquet de Beauregard, G.Y.

2015-01-01

The Molybdenum-99/Technetium-99m ( 99 Mo/ 99m Tc) supply disruptions occurred in the recent years prompted the European Commission and industry to establish in 2012 a European Observatory on the Supply of Medical Radioisotopes, aimed at bringing together all relevant information to the decision makers in the European Union (EU) institutions and national governments in order to assist them in defining strategies as well as policies for their implementation. The Observatory follows the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/Nuclear Energy Agency-OECD/NEA principles established by the High Level Group on the Security of Supply of Medical Radioisotopes (HLG-MR), of which the European Commission is a Member, and focuses on the specificities of their implementation in the EU, recognizing at the same time that the supply is of a global nature and requires broader international cooperation. The Observatory has four general strategic objectives: to support a secure 99 Mo/ 99m Tc supply across the European Union, ensure that the issue of 99 Mo/ 99m Tc supply is given high political visibility, encourage the creation of a sustainable economic structure of the supply chain and establish periodic reviews of the supply capacities and demand. (author)

The Analysis of Rush Orders Risk in Supply Chain: A Simulation Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Mahfouz, Amr; Arisha, Amr

2011-01-01

Satisfying customers by delivering demands at agreed time, with competitive prices, and in satisfactory quality level are crucial requirements for supply chain survival. Incidence of risks in supply chain often causes sudden disruptions in the processes and consequently leads to customers losing their trust in a company's competence. Rush orders are considered to be one of the main types of supply chain risks due to their negative impact on the overall performance, Using integrated definition modeling approaches (i.e. IDEF0 & IDEF3) and simulation modeling technique, a comprehensive integrated model has been developed to assess rush order risks and examine two risk mitigation strategies. Detailed functions sequence and objects flow were conceptually modeled to reflect on macro and micro levels of the studied supply chain. Discrete event simulation models were then developed to assess and investigate the mitigation strategies of rush order risks, the objective of this is to minimize order cycle time and cost.

Supply Networks and Value Creation in High Innovation and Strong Network Externalities Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernando Claro Tomaselli

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The rapid developing product and service markets and developments in information technologies have accelerated growth in outsourcing of peripheral activities and critical business as well, enhancing the importance of network supply chain management. This paper analyzes the dynamics of supply chain management and the creation of value in an industry with strong network effects and constantly introduction of disruptive technologies, the videogame industry. This industry evolves at a high velocity, with a lifecycle of five to six years for consoles, which features a new generation of consoles, where new companies and technologies appear and disappear at each generation.

Water supply facility damage and water resource operation at disaster base hospitals in miyagi prefecture in the wake of the Great East Japan Earthquake.

Science.gov (United States)

Matsumura, Takashi; Osaki, Shizuka; Kudo, Daisuke; Furukawa, Hajime; Nakagawa, Atsuhiro; Abe, Yoshiko; Yamanouchi, Satoshi; Egawa, Shinichi; Tominaga, Teiji; Kushimoto, Shigeki

2015-04-01

The aim of this study was to shed light on damage to water supply facilities and the state of water resource operation at disaster base hospitals in Miyagi Prefecture (Japan) in the wake of the Great East Japan Earthquake (2011), in order to identify issues concerning the operational continuity of hospitals in the event of a disaster. In addition to interview and written questionnaire surveys to 14 disaster base hospitals in Miyagi Prefecture, a number of key elements relating to the damage done to water supply facilities and the operation of water resources were identified from the chronological record of events following the Great East Japan Earthquake. Nine of the 14 hospitals experienced cuts to their water supplies, with a median value of three days (range=one to 20 days) for service recovery time. The hospitals that could utilize well water during the time that water supply was interrupted were able to obtain water in quantities similar to their normal volumes. Hospitals that could not use well water during the period of interruption, and hospitals whose water supply facilities were damaged, experienced significant disruption to dialysis, sterilization equipment, meal services, sanitation, and outpatient care services, though the extent of disruption varied considerably among hospitals. None of the hospitals had determined the amount of water used for different purposes during normal service or formulated a plan for allocation of limited water in the event of a disaster. The present survey showed that it is possible to minimize the disruption and reduction of hospital functions in the event of a disaster by proper maintenance of water supply facilities and by ensuring alternative water resources, such as well water. It is also clear that it is desirable to conclude water supply agreements and formulate strategic water allocation plans in preparation for the eventuality of a long-term interruption to water services.

Wound Disruption Following Colorectal Operations.

Science.gov (United States)

Moghadamyeghaneh, Zhobin; Hanna, Mark H; Carmichael, Joseph C; Mills, Steven; Pigazzi, Alessio; Nguyen, Ninh T; Stamos, Michael J

2015-12-01

Postoperative wound disruption is associated with high morbidity and mortality. We sought to identify the risk factors and outcomes of wound disruption following colorectal resection. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database was used to examine the clinical data of patients who underwent colorectal resection from 2005 to 2013. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors of wound disruption. We sampled a total of 164,297 patients who underwent colorectal resection. Of these, 2073 (1.3 %) had wound disruption. Patients with wound disruption had significantly higher mortality (5.1 vs. 1.9 %, AOR: 1.46, P = 0.01). The highest risk of wound disruption was seen in patients with wound infection (4.8 vs. 0.9 %, AOR: 4.11, P disruption such as chronic steroid use (AOR: 1.71, P disruption compared to open surgery (AOR: 0.61, P disruption occurs in 1.3 % of colorectal resections, and it correlates with mortality of patients. Wound infection is the strongest predictor of wound disruption. Chronic steroid use, obesity, severe COPD, prolonged operation, non-elective admission, and serum albumin level are strongly associated with wound disruption. Utilization of the laparoscopic approach may decrease the risk of wound disruption when possible.

The security of gas supply-a critical issue for Europe?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weisser, Hellmuth

2007-01-01

Gas is competing with oil for being the dominant energy source. In electricity generation gas is to play as pivotal a role as oil in transportation. The security equation of gas and electricity become unseparably interrelated. Energy disruptions have considerable influence on the national accounts far beyond the direct cost of market participants (asymmetry). The present gas supply to the EU depends dangerously on too few sources and venues. There is a decided lack of optionality. The EU directly or through its members needs a clear proactive policy on 'Security of Gas Supply' with a strong multilateral direction. The measures developed for the oil industry over the last 30 years can at least serve as a starting point for a constructive debate. When discussing security of supply dependence it is useful to clearly define the various risks one wishes to protect against. Free riders relying on alternative fuels without participating in their security systems are not permissible

Embedding resilience in the design of the electricity supply for industrial clients.

Science.gov (United States)

Moura, Márcio das Chagas; Diniz, Helder Henrique Lima; Droguett, Enrique López; da Cunha, Beatriz Sales; Lins, Isis Didier; Simoni, Vicente Ribeiro

2017-01-01

This paper proposes an optimization model, using Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP), to support decisions related to making investments in the design of power grids serving industrial clients that experience interruptions to their energy supply due to disruptive events. In this approach, by considering the probabilities of the occurrence of a set of such disruptive events, the model is used to minimize the overall expected cost by determining an optimal strategy involving pre- and post-event actions. The pre-event actions, which are considered during the design phase, evaluate the resilience capacity (absorption, adaptation and restoration) and are tailored to the context of industrial clients dependent on a power grid. Four cases are analysed to explore the results of different probabilities of the occurrence of disruptions. Moreover, two scenarios, in which the probability of occurrence is lowest but the consequences are most serious, are selected to illustrate the model's applicability. The results indicate that investments in pre-event actions, if implemented, can enhance the resilience of power grids serving industrial clients because the impacts of disruptions either are experienced only for a short time period or are completely avoided.

Embedding resilience in the design of the electricity supply for industrial clients

Science.gov (United States)

Moura, Márcio das Chagas; Diniz, Helder Henrique Lima; da Cunha, Beatriz Sales; Lins, Isis Didier; Simoni, Vicente Ribeiro

2017-01-01

This paper proposes an optimization model, using Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP), to support decisions related to making investments in the design of power grids serving industrial clients that experience interruptions to their energy supply due to disruptive events. In this approach, by considering the probabilities of the occurrence of a set of such disruptive events, the model is used to minimize the overall expected cost by determining an optimal strategy involving pre- and post-event actions. The pre-event actions, which are considered during the design phase, evaluate the resilience capacity (absorption, adaptation and restoration) and are tailored to the context of industrial clients dependent on a power grid. Four cases are analysed to explore the results of different probabilities of the occurrence of disruptions. Moreover, two scenarios, in which the probability of occurrence is lowest but the consequences are most serious, are selected to illustrate the model’s applicability. The results indicate that investments in pre-event actions, if implemented, can enhance the resilience of power grids serving industrial clients because the impacts of disruptions either are experienced only for a short time period or are completely avoided. PMID:29190777

Global and Country-Level Fragility to Major Disruptions in Crop Production

Science.gov (United States)

Puma, M. J.; Wada, Y.; Chon, S. Y.; Cook, B. I.; Nordbotten, J. M.

2016-12-01

New food polices are needed to mitigate vulnerabilities in the global food system to unexpected and severe production losses. The starting point for developing such policies is the ability to quantify the potential range of food and economic losses associated with major food-production shocks. Although individual major shock events are unpredictable, it is possible to quantify the relative vulnerabilities of the global food system as a whole and of individual countries within the system to production shocks. Here we combine a scale for food disruptions, which links the magnitude for a production shock with the corresponding short-term food and economic losses for that event (analogous to the well-known Richter magnitude scale for earthquakes), with country-level food system metrics. We demonstrate the value of our approach using the recent El Niño event of 2015-2016. Ultimately, these metrics can be used as part of efforts to develop national and global level food policies to prepare for and mitigate possible food-supply disruptions.

Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals (EDCs)

Science.gov (United States)

... Center Pacientes y Cuidadores Hormones and Health The Endocrine System Hormones Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals (EDCs) Steroid and Hormone ... Hormones and Health › Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals (EDCs) The Endocrine System Hormones Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals (EDCs) EDCs Myth vs. ...

The Importance of Systems for Controlling Logistics Costs in the Supply Chain: A Case Study from the Slovenian Automotive Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sebastjan Škerlič

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Participating in the automotive industry brings new responsibilities for suppliers who, in order to meet customer demands, must strive towards improving business processes, while at the same time reducing costs. These demands can disrupt the operations of companies that do not have a system for controlling logistics costs. On the other hand, customer demands can be the cause of other types of disruptions in companies that have such a system in place, stemming from an excessive focus on cost reduction. To tackle this problem, a survey was conducted on a sample of 30 Slovenian companies that operate as suppliers in the automotive industry. Its objective was to determine how different customer demands along the supply chain can affect the business processes of suppliers and the level of logistics costs. The survey revealed that companies that use a system for controlling logistics costs experience fewer disruptions in their business processes in their efforts to satisfy customer demands. These companies also display a higher level of integration of business processes and use a different approach when dealing with the various participants of the supply chain. The survey also sets clear participation guidelines for suppliers in the supply chain of the automotive industry and points out how companies can benefit from using a system for controlling logistics costs in other ways, aside from the cost controlling aspect.

Disruptions in the TFTR tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janos, A.; Fredrickson, E.D.; McGuire, K.; Batha, S.H.; Bell, M.G.; Bitter, M.; Budny, R.; Bush, C.E.; Efthimion, P.C.; Hawryluk, R.J.; Hill, K.W.; Hosea, J.; Jobes, F.C.; Johnson, D.W.; Levinton, F.; Mansfield, D.; Meade, D.; Medley, S.S.; Monticello, D.; Mueller, D.; Nagayama, Y.; Owens, D.K.; Park, H.; Park, W.; Post, D.E.; Schivell, J.; Strachan, J.D.; Taylor, G.; Ulrickson, M.; Goeler, S. von; Wilfrid, E.; Wong, K.L.; Yamada, M.; Young, K.M.; Zarnstorff, M.C.; Zweben, S.J.; Drake, J.F.; Kleva, R.G.; Fleischmann, H.H.

1993-03-01

For a successful reactor, it will be useful to predict the occurrence of disruptions and to understand disruption effects including how a plasma disrupts onto the wall and how reproducibly it does so. Studies of disruptions on TFTR at both high-β pol and high-density have shown that, in both types, a fast growing m/n=1/1 mode plays an important role. In highdensity disruptions, a newly observed fast m/n = 1/1 mode occurs early in the thermal decay phase. For the first time in TFTR q-profile measurements just prior to disruptions have been made. Experimental studies of heat deposition patterns on the first wall of TFTR due to disruptions have provided information on MHD phenomena prior to or during the disruption, how the energy is released to the wall, and the reproducibility of the heat loads from disruptions. This information is important in the design of future devices such as ITER. Several new processes of runaway electron generation are theoretically suggested and their application to TFTR and ITER is considered, together with a preliminary assessment of x-ray data from runaways generated during disruptions

BINARY DISRUPTION BY MASSIVE BLACK HOLES: HYPERVELOCITY STARS, S STARS, AND TIDAL DISRUPTION EVENTS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bromley, Benjamin C. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Utah, 115 S 1400 E, Rm 201, Salt Lake City, UT 84112 (United States); Kenyon, Scott J.; Geller, Margaret J.; Brown, Warren R., E-mail: bromley@physics.utah.edu, E-mail: skenyon@cfa.harvard.edu, E-mail: mgeller@cfa.harvard.edu, E-mail: wbrown@cfa.harvard.edu [Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

2012-04-20

We examine whether disrupted binary stars can fuel black hole growth. In this mechanism, tidal disruption produces a single hypervelocity star (HVS) ejected at high velocity and a former companion star bound to the black hole. After a cluster of bound stars forms, orbital diffusion allows the black hole to accrete stars by tidal disruption at a rate comparable to the capture rate. In the Milky Way, HVSs and the S star cluster imply similar rates of 10{sup -5} to 10{sup -3} yr{sup -1} for binary disruption. These rates are consistent with estimates for the tidal disruption rate in nearby galaxies and imply significant black hole growth from disrupted binaries on 10 Gyr timescales.

Integrated Supply Network Maturity Model: Water Scarcity Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ekaterina Yatskovskaya

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Today’s supply chains (SCs are more than ever prone to disruptions caused by natural and man-made events with water scarcity identified as one of the highest impact events among these. Leading businesses, understanding that natural resource scarcity (NRS has become a critical supply chain risk factor, extensively incorporate sustainable water management programmes into their corporate social responsibility and environmental management agenda. The question of how industries can efficiently evaluate the progress of these water scarcity mitigation practices, however, remains open. In order to address this question, the present study proposes a conceptual maturity model. The model is rooted in strategies for water scarcity mitigation using a framework developed by Yatskovskaya and Srai and develops an extensive literature review of recent publications on maturity frameworks in the fields of sustainability and operations management. In order to test the proposed proposed, model an exploratory case study with a leading pharmaceutical company was conducted. The proposed maturity model presents an evaluation tool that allows systematic assessment and visualisation of organisational routines and practices relevant to sustainable manufacturing in the context of water scarcity. This model was designed to help illustrate mitigation capabilities evolution over time, where future state desired capabilities were considered through alternative supply network (SN configurations, network structure, process flow, product architecture, and supply partnerships.

Statistical analysis of JET disruptions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanga, A.; Johnson, M.F.

1991-07-01

In the operation of JET and of any tokamak many discharges are terminated by a major disruption. The disruptive termination of a discharge is usually an unwanted event which may cause damage to the structure of the vessel. In a reactor disruptions are potentially a very serious problem, hence the importance of studying them and devising methods to avoid disruptions. Statistical information has been collected about the disruptions which have occurred at JET over a long span of operations. The analysis is focused on the operational aspects of the disruptions rather than on the underlining physics. (Author)

An ant colony based resilience approach to cascading failures in cluster supply network

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yingcong; Xiao, Renbin

2016-11-01

Cluster supply chain network is a typical complex network and easily suffers cascading failures under disruption events, which is caused by the under-load of enterprises. Improving network resilience can increase the ability of recovery from cascading failures. Social resilience is found in ant colony and comes from ant's spatial fidelity zones (SFZ). Starting from the under-load failures, this paper proposes a resilience method to cascading failures in cluster supply chain network by leveraging on social resilience of ant colony. First, the mapping between ant colony SFZ and cluster supply chain network SFZ is presented. Second, a new cascading model for cluster supply chain network is constructed based on under-load failures. Then, the SFZ-based resilience method and index to cascading failures are developed according to ant colony's social resilience. Finally, a numerical simulation and a case study are used to verify the validity of the cascading model and the resilience method. Experimental results show that, the cluster supply chain network becomes resilient to cascading failures under the SFZ-based resilience method, and the cluster supply chain network resilience can be enhanced by improving the ability of enterprises to recover and adjust.

Disruptions in DIII-D

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reiman, A.; Taylor, P.; Kellman, A.; LaHaye, R.

1996-01-01

We report on the results of a statistical analysis of the DIII-D disruption data base, and on an examination of a selected subset of the shots to determine the likely causes of disruptions. The statistical analysis focuses on the dependence of the disruption rate on key dimensionless parameters. We find that the disruption frequency is high at modest values of the parameters, and that it can be relatively low at operational limits. For example, the disruption frequency in an ITER relevant regime (β N /l i ∼ 2, 3 G > 0.6, where n G is the Greenwald limit) is approximately 23%. For this range of q, the disruption frequency rises only modestly to about 35% at the β limit, consistent with previous observations of a soft β limit for this q regime. For the range 6 95 G G < .9) in all q regimes we have studied. The location of the minimum moves to higher density with increasing q

Disruption model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murray, J.G.; Bronner, G.

1982-07-01

Calculations of disruption time and energy dissipation have been obtained by simulating the plasma as an electrical conducting loop that varies in resistivity, current density, major radius. The calculations provide results which are in good agreement with experimental observations. It is believed that this approach allows engineering designs for disruptions to be completed in large tokamaks such as INTOR or FED

Internal disruption in tokamaks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuvshinov, B.N.; Savrukhin, P.V.

1990-01-01

A review of results of experimental and theoretical investigations of internal disruption in tokamaks is given. Specific features of various types of saw-tooth oscillations are described and their classification is performed. Theoretical models of the process of development of internal disruption instability are discussed. Effect of internal disruption on parameters of plasma, confined in tokamak, is considered. Scalings of period and amplitude of saw-tooth oscillations, as well as version radius are presented. Different methods for stabilizing instability of internal disruption are described

Internal disruptions in tokamaks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuvshinov, B.N.; Savrukhin, P.V.

1990-01-01

Experimental and theoretical studies of the phenomenon of internal disruptions in tokamaks are reviewed. A classification scheme is introduced and the features of different types of sawtooth oscillations are described. A theoretical model for the development of the internal disruption instability is discussed. The effect of internal disruptions on the parameters of plasma confined in tokamaks is discussed. Scaling laws for the period and amplitude of sawtooth oscillations, as well as for the inversion radius, are presented. Different methods of stabilizing the internal disruption instability are described

A valuation study of fuel supply stability of nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagano, Koji; Nagata, Yutaka; Hitomi, Kazumi; Hamagata, Sumio; Asaoka, Yoshiyuki

2008-01-01

In order to assess potential benefits of nuclear power with regard to its characteristics of fuel supply stability, the following three aspects are valuated under the Japanese energy and electricity mix: a) economic stability; i.e. nuclear power's contribution to the whole energy and electricity mix in terms of resistance to fluctuation and/or fuel price hikes, b) procurement stability; i.e. natural uranium, the raw fuel material for nuclear power generation, is being imported from more reliable sources through adequately diverse markets than in the cases of oil and natural gas, and, c) passive reserve effect; i.e. fuel materials as running stocks at power stations and fuel service facilities could maintain nuclear power generation running for a certain duration under unexpected disruption of fuel supply. (author)

Hacking cyber-risks back in their tracks: to identify the right supply chain controls, look at the system

OpenAIRE

Sepúlveda, Daniel; Khan, Omera

2015-01-01

A more comprehensive way of looking at cyber-risks in supply chains is required, when considering the increasing complexity of the supply networks and the exposure to unexpected disruptions, caused by cyber-attacks. This article describes some of the reasons why current risk assessment methods are insufficient. The article provides an analogy for understanding the dynamic effects in a company. It describes in general terms what it means to understand cyber-risks from the control perspective, ...

A disruptive approach for a green field smart grid installation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bishnoi, Peeush [Siemens Technology and Services Pvt. Ltd., Bangalore (India); Klein, Wolfram; Kuntschke, Richard; Speh, Rainer; Waszak, Michal-Wolfgang [Siemens AG, Muenchen (Germany)

2012-07-01

The current trend towards increasingly decentralized power generation including renewable generation such as photovoltaic or wind power calls for a new concept for future power supply systems. The future power grid has to incorporate numerous distributed and comparatively small-sized generation facilities in addition to the larger centralized power plants currently in operation. Consumers will turn into prosumers that consume as well as produce electrical power. Thus, power will no longer flow exclusively from power plants to consumers such as households and industrial plants, but also between consumers, requiring new solutions, e.g., for protection within the power grid. In this paper, we propose a disruptive approach for a green field smart grid installation solving the issues arising from the increasing use of decentralized power generation. The new power supply system proposed can handle up to 100 % of volatile renewable generation and allows dynamic growth of the power grid with little effort. It is therefore suitable for building up new power supply systems in previously non-electrified regions, e.g., in rural areas in developing countries. At the same time, the system also offers solutions for the issues arising from the advent of the new energy age in developed countries. (orig.)

Supply chain finance and its accounting treatment : reclassification of trade payables and it's implications for the professional field

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bauke Feenstra; Anne Rikst Engbers; Michiel Steeman

2017-01-01

In the modern Supply Chain Finance landscape, Reverse Factoring is one of the most consolidated business model for working capital financing. However, accounting treatment of Reverse Factoring might affect the balance sheet of large corporate, with disruptive consequences for the programme as a

Mitigating Corporate Water Risk: Financial Market Tools and Supply Management Strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wendy M. Larson

2012-10-01

Full Text Available A decision framework for business water-risk response is proposed that considers financial instruments and supply management strategies. Based on available and emergent programmes, companies in the agricultural, commodities, and energy sectors may choose to hedge against financial risks by purchasing futures contracts or insurance products. These strategies address financial impacts such as revenue protection due to scarcity and disruption of direct operations or in the supply chain, but they do not directly serve to maintain available supplies to continue production. In contrast, companies can undertake actions in the watershed to enhance supply reliability and/or they can reduce demand to mitigate risk. Intermediate strategies such as purchasing of water rights or water trading involving financial transactions change the allocation of water but do not reduce overall watershed demand or increase water supply. The financial services industry is playing an increasingly important role, by considering how water risks impact decision making on corporate growth and market valuation, corporate creditworthiness, and bond rating. Risk assessment informed by Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR measures is described, and the role of the financial services industry is characterised. A corporate decision framework is discussed in the context of water resources management strategies under complex uncertainties.

A Risk Analysis of the Molybdenum-99 Supply Chain Using Bayesian Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Jeffrey Ryan

The production of Molybdenum-99 (99Mo) is critical to the field of nuclear medicine, where it is utilized in roughly 80% of all nuclear imaging procedures. In October of 2016, the National Research Universal (NRU) reactor in Canada, which historically had the highest 99Mo production capability worldwide, ceased routine production and will be permanently shut down in 2018. This loss of capacity has led to widespread concern over the ability of the 99Mo supply chain and to meet demand. There is significant disagreement among analyses from trade groups, governments, and other researchers, predicting everything from no significant impact to major worldwide shortages. Using Bayesian networks, this research focused on modeling the 99Mo supply chain to quantify how a disrupting event, such as the unscheduled downtime of a reactor, will impact the global supply. This not only includes quantifying the probability of a shortage occurring, but also identifying which nodes in the supply chain introduce the most risk to better inform decision makers on where future facilities or other risk mitigation techniques should be applied.

Symposium on disruptive instabilities at Garching

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lackner, K.

1979-01-01

The phenomenon of disruptive instabilities was investigated with a special care at the IPP at Garching. After lectures and panel sessions it appears suitable, to subdivide the disruptive phenomena into four classes: 1. The internal disruption (the socalled saw-tooth oscillators). 2. the socalled reconnection disruptions. 3. The large disruptions. 4. The small disruptions. The four appearance forms of the phenomena are briefly explained. (GG) [de

Survey of disruption causes at JET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Vries, P.C.; Johnson, M.F.; Alper, B.; Hender, T.C.; Riccardo, V.; Buratti, P.; Koslowski, H.R.

2011-01-01

A survey has been carried out into the causes of all 2309 disruptions over the last decade of JET operations. The aim of this survey was to obtain a complete picture of all possible disruption causes, in order to devise better strategies to prevent or mitigate their impact. The analysis allows the effort to avoid or prevent JET disruptions to be more efficient and effective. As expected, a highly complex pattern of chain of events that led to disruptions emerged. It was found that the majority of disruptions had a technical root cause, for example due to control errors, or operator mistakes. These bring a random, non-physics, factor into the occurrence of disruptions and the disruption rate or disruptivity of a scenario may depend more on technical performance than on physics stability issues. The main root cause of JET disruptions was nevertheless due to neo-classical tearing modes that locked, closely followed in second place by disruptions due to human error. The development of more robust operational scenarios has reduced the JET disruption rate over the last decade from about 15% to below 4%. A fraction of all disruptions was caused by very fast, precursorless unpredictable events. The occurrence of these disruptions may set a lower limit of 0.4% to the disruption rate of JET. If one considers on top of that human error and all unforeseen failures of heating or control systems this lower limit may rise to 1.0% or 1.6%, respectively.

Assessment of disruptive scenarios of a Canadian used fuel repository in crystalline rock

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gobien, M.; Garisto, F.; Hunt, N.; Kremer, E.P. [Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO), Toronto, Ontario (Canada)

2015-06-15

The NWMO has recently extended its modelling capabilities by performing simulations for four disruptive scenarios that, to date, have not yet been examined in detail. These scenarios complement those considered in an existing postclosure safety assessment for a conceptual geological repository located in a hypothetical crystalline rock formation. The four new disruptive scenarios are: Shaft Seal Failure, Undetected Fault, Open or Poorly Sealed Borehole and Open Borehole Due to Inadvertent Human Intrusion. All simulations are based on the FRAC3DVS-OPG Site-Scale Model. The Site-Scale Model includes a simplified representation of the full repository and a portion of the surrounding sub-regional flow system. All transport simulations are performed with only the radionuclide I-129. Transport rates to the surface and a domestic water supply well are compared to the Reference Case results from an earlier case study documented in Reference. (author)

Assessment of disruptive scenarios of a Canadian used fuel repository in crystalline rock

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gobien, M.; Garisto, F.; Hunt, N.; Kremer, E.P., E-mail: mgobien@nwmo.ca [Nuclear Waste Management Organization, Toronto, ON (Canada)

2015-07-01

The NWMO has recently extended its modelling capabilities by performing simulations for four disruptive scenarios that, to date, have not yet been examined in detail. These scenarios complement those considered in an existing postclosure safety assessment for a conceptual geological repository located in a hypothetical crystalline rock formation. The four new disruptive scenarios are: Shaft Seal Failure, Undetected Fault, Open or Poorly Sealed Borehole and Open Borehole Due to Inadvertent Human Intrusion. All simulations are based on the FRAC3DVS-OPG [1] Site-Scale Model [2]. The Site-Scale Model includes a simplified representation of the full repository and a portion of the surrounding sub-regional flow system. All transport simulations are performed with only the radionuclide I-129. Transport rates to the surface and a domestic water supply well are compared to the Reference Case results from an earlier case study documented in Reference [2]. (author)

Assessment of disruptive scenarios of a Canadian used fuel repository in crystalline rock

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gobien, M.; Garisto, F.; Hunt, N.; Kremer, E.P.

2015-01-01

The NWMO has recently extended its modelling capabilities by performing simulations for four disruptive scenarios that, to date, have not yet been examined in detail. These scenarios complement those considered in an existing postclosure safety assessment for a conceptual geological repository located in a hypothetical crystalline rock formation. The four new disruptive scenarios are: Shaft Seal Failure, Undetected Fault, Open or Poorly Sealed Borehole and Open Borehole Due to Inadvertent Human Intrusion. All simulations are based on the FRAC3DVS-OPG [1] Site-Scale Model [2]. The Site-Scale Model includes a simplified representation of the full repository and a portion of the surrounding sub-regional flow system. All transport simulations are performed with only the radionuclide I-129. Transport rates to the surface and a domestic water supply well are compared to the Reference Case results from an earlier case study documented in Reference [2]. (author)

Statistical analysis of disruptions in JET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Vries, P.C.; Johnson, M.F.; Segui, I.

2009-01-01

The disruption rate (the percentage of discharges that disrupt) in JET was found to drop steadily over the years. Recent campaigns (2005-2007) show a yearly averaged disruption rate of only 6% while from 1991 to 1995 this was often higher than 20%. Besides the disruption rate, the so-called disruptivity, or the likelihood of a disruption depending on the plasma parameters, has been determined. The disruptivity of plasmas was found to be significantly higher close to the three main operational boundaries for tokamaks; the low-q, high density and β-limit. The frequency at which JET operated close to the density-limit increased six fold over the last decade; however, only a small reduction in disruptivity was found. Similarly the disruptivity close to the low-q and β-limit was found to be unchanged. The most significant reduction in disruptivity was found far from the operational boundaries, leading to the conclusion that the improved disruption rate is due to a better technical capability of operating JET, instead of safer operations close to the physics limits. The statistics showed that a simple protection system was able to mitigate the forces of a large fraction of disruptions, although it has proved to be at present more difficult to ameliorate the heat flux.

Improvements in disruption prediction at ASDEX Upgrade

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aledda, R., E-mail: raffaele.aledda@diee.unica.it; Cannas, B., E-mail: cannas@diee.unica.it; Fanni, A., E-mail: fanni@diee.unica.it; Pau, A., E-mail: alessandro.pau@diee.unica.it; Sias, G., E-mail: giuliana.sias@diee.unica.it

2015-10-15

Highlights: • A disruption prediction system for AUG, based on a logistic model, is designed. • The length of the disruptive phase is set for each disruption in the training set. • The model is tested on dataset different from that used during the training phase. • The generalization capability and the aging of the model have been tested. • The predictor performance is compared with the locked mode detector. - Abstract: In large-scale tokamaks disruptions have the potential to create serious damage to the facility. Hence disruptions must be avoided, but, when a disruption is unavoidable, minimizing its severity is mandatory. A reliable detection of a disruptive event is required to trigger proper mitigation actions. To this purpose machine learning methods have been widely studied to design disruption prediction systems at ASDEX Upgrade. The training phase of the proposed approaches is based on the availability of disrupted and non-disrupted discharges. In literature disruptive configurations were assumed appearing into the last 45 ms of each disruption. Even if the achieved results in terms of correct predictions were good, it has to be highlighted that the choice of such a fixed temporal window might have limited the prediction performance. In fact, it generates confusing information in cases of disruptions with disruptive phase different from 45 ms. The assessment of a specific disruptive phase for each disruptive discharge represents a relevant issue in understanding the disruptive events. In this paper, the Mahalanobis distance is applied to define a specific disruptive phase for each disruption, and a logistic regressor has been trained as disruption predictor. The results show that enhancements on the achieved performance on disruption prediction are possible by defining a specific disruptive phase for each disruption.

Improvements in disruption prediction at ASDEX Upgrade

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aledda, R.; Cannas, B.; Fanni, A.; Pau, A.; Sias, G.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A disruption prediction system for AUG, based on a logistic model, is designed. • The length of the disruptive phase is set for each disruption in the training set. • The model is tested on dataset different from that used during the training phase. • The generalization capability and the aging of the model have been tested. • The predictor performance is compared with the locked mode detector. - Abstract: In large-scale tokamaks disruptions have the potential to create serious damage to the facility. Hence disruptions must be avoided, but, when a disruption is unavoidable, minimizing its severity is mandatory. A reliable detection of a disruptive event is required to trigger proper mitigation actions. To this purpose machine learning methods have been widely studied to design disruption prediction systems at ASDEX Upgrade. The training phase of the proposed approaches is based on the availability of disrupted and non-disrupted discharges. In literature disruptive configurations were assumed appearing into the last 45 ms of each disruption. Even if the achieved results in terms of correct predictions were good, it has to be highlighted that the choice of such a fixed temporal window might have limited the prediction performance. In fact, it generates confusing information in cases of disruptions with disruptive phase different from 45 ms. The assessment of a specific disruptive phase for each disruptive discharge represents a relevant issue in understanding the disruptive events. In this paper, the Mahalanobis distance is applied to define a specific disruptive phase for each disruption, and a logistic regressor has been trained as disruption predictor. The results show that enhancements on the achieved performance on disruption prediction are possible by defining a specific disruptive phase for each disruption.

The value of criticality: Gauging issues in supply nets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jochen Speyerer

2005-06-01

Full Text Available Modern day supply chains encompass both geographically disparate activities and planning processes for multiple companies or various interdependent time horizons. To be able to effectively manage these supply chains it is not only necessary to strategically plan the future of the underlying network of participating companies but also to schedule and monitor the ongoing production and logistics activities on a regular basis. Unfortunately, available information systems do not provide an adequate way to handle disruptions. If at all, they employ inter-organizational workflows to keep track of activities and notify a pre-set recipient in case something goes wrong. But in order to be able to focus their attention on urgent problems, managers need a means to gauge the criticality of a symptom. This paper tries to fill this gap by introducing a Value of Criticality (VoC that indicates how serious the faced deviation really is.

Disruption prediction at JET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milani, F.

1998-12-01

The sudden loss of the plasma magnetic confinement, known as disruption, is one of the major issue in a nuclear fusion machine as JET (Joint European Torus). Disruptions pose very serious problems to the safety of the machine. The energy stored in the plasma is released to the machine structure in few milliseconds resulting in forces that at JET reach several Mega Newtons. The problem is even more severe in the nuclear fusion power station where the forces are in the order of one hundred Mega Newtons. The events that occur during a disruption are still not well understood even if some mechanisms that can lead to a disruption have been identified and can be used to predict them. Unfortunately it is always a combination of these events that generates a disruption and therefore it is not possible to use simple algorithms to predict it. This thesis analyses the possibility of using neural network algorithms to predict plasma disruptions in real time. This involves the determination of plasma parameters every few milliseconds. A plasma boundary reconstruction algorithm, XLOC, has been developed in collaboration with Dr. D. O'Brien and Dr. J. Ellis capable of determining the plasma wall/distance every 2 milliseconds. The XLOC output has been used to develop a multilayer perceptron network to determine plasma parameters as l i and q ψ with which a machine operational space has been experimentally defined. If the limits of this operational space are breached the disruption probability increases considerably. Another approach for prediction disruptions is to use neural network classification methods to define the JET operational space. Two methods have been studied. The first method uses a multilayer perceptron network with softmax activation function for the output layer. This method can be used for classifying the input patterns in various classes. In this case the plasma input patterns have been divided between disrupting and safe patterns, giving the possibility of

Monitoring-induced disruption in skilled typewriting.

Science.gov (United States)

Snyder, Kristy M; Logan, Gordon D

2013-10-01

It is often disruptive to attend to the details of one's expert performance. The current work presents four experiments that utilized a monitor to report protocol to evaluate the sufficiency of three accounts of monitoring-induced disruption. The inhibition hypothesis states that disruption results from costs associated with preparing to withhold inappropriate responses. The dual-task hypothesis states that disruption results from maintaining monitored information in working memory. The implicit-explicit hypothesis states that disruption results from explicitly monitoring details of performance that are normally implicit. The findings suggest that all three hypotheses are sufficient to produce disruption, but inhibition and dual-task costs are not necessary. Experiment 1 showed that monitoring to report was disruptive even when there was no requirement to inhibit. Experiment 2 showed that maintaining information in working memory caused some disruption but much less than monitoring to report. Experiment 4 showed that monitoring to inhibit was more disruptive than monitoring to report, suggesting that monitoring is more disruptive when it is combined with other task requirements, such as inhibition. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Disruptive Intelligence - How to gather Information to deal with disruptive innovations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vriens, D.J.; Solberg Søilen, K.

2014-01-01

Disruptive innovations are innovations that have the capacity to transform a whole business into one with products that are more accessible and affordable (cf. Christensen et al. 2009). As Christensen et al. argue no business is immune to such disruptive innovations. If these authors are right, it

World energy supply and demand and the future of nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lantzke, U.

1977-01-01

The OECD's world energy outlook analyses projected trends in energy damnd and supply for the OECD area and other major global regions to 1985. It provides a brief discussion of trends after 1985. OECD energy consumption is projected to grow more slowly than in the past. Conservation effects will increase efficiency of energy use per unit of economic growth. All domestic energy supplies in the OECD are projected to expand faster than in the past. The relative share of non-fossil energy sources in total production will be almost doubled. Assuming moderate economic growth, existing energy policies and a constnat real price for oil, the outlook's reference case projects OECD oil import at 35 million barrels a day by 1985. This level of import demand, when combined with the import needs of other oil importing areas, could approach the limit of availability of world oil supplies and as a result cause severe disequilibrium in world energy markets. The outlook indicates such severe disruption can be avoided by action to improve the world energy supply and demand balance without impeding economic growth objectives. Strong measures will be required both to conserve energy and to develop new energy supplies. The biggest increment to the OECD's energy supply by 1985 is expected to come from nuclear power. This substantial nuclear contribution will be inevitable and irreplaceable. As a result urgent solutions to problems concerning safety, availability of fuel cycle services, the environment, cost escalation and construction delays will be required

Supply chain risk management processes for resilience: A study of South African grocery manufacturers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon Simba

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Background: The supply chain risk management (SCRM process is aimed at the implementation of strategies that assist in managing both daily and exceptional risks facing the supply chain through continuous risk assessment to reduce vulnerability and ensure continuity. Purpose: The purpose of the study was to determine whether the SCRM process enables supply chain resilience among grocery manufacturers in South Africa. The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG-manufacturing industry faces increased risk because of the nature of their products being perishable with a limited shelf life. Method: This study was conducted using a descriptive qualitative research design. Data were collected by means of 12 semi-structured interviews with senior supply chain practitioners within the South African grocery manufacturing industry. Findings: The study found that most firms informally implement SCRM processes of risk identification, assessment, mitigation and monitoring to mitigate disruptions. Furthermore, the findings indicate that the SCRM processes facilitate resilience among grocery manufacturers in South Africa. Conclusion: The managerial implications show that supply chain managers of grocery manufacturers should formalise the SCRM process and develop risk assessment scales to better prioritise risks in order to run a resilient supply chain. The research contributes to the supply chain management field by adding to the scarce literature relating to SCRM as an enabler of supply chain resilience in a South African context.

Politisk disruption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tække, Jesper

2018-01-01

Dette blogindlæg giver en kort analyse af hvordan de sociale medier ved at give en ny tid har åbnet for den disruption af de politiske processer som især Trump stå som et eksempel på.......Dette blogindlæg giver en kort analyse af hvordan de sociale medier ved at give en ny tid har åbnet for den disruption af de politiske processer som især Trump stå som et eksempel på....

Simulating the effects of plasma disruption with a 1 MA current pulse in a coaxial test fixture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Praeg, W.F.

1985-01-01

A test fixture for simulating plasma disruptions, comprising two coaxial cylinders, has been designed for use with Argonne's electromagnetic test facility FELIX. A pulsed power supply drives a half cycle sine wave current of 10 0 A through the test fixture generating fields of -1 . The coaxial structure is 140 cm long, has an outer cylinder with an OD of 78 cm and an inner cylinder with an OD of 8.3 cm. It is surrounded by the FELIX solenoid field of 1 T. This proposed upgrade of the FELIX facility should be useful for testing the effect of plasma disruption on First Wall-Blanket-Shield (FWBS) structures; a future upgrade of the solenoid field to 4 T will allow to simulate reactor conditions even better

Simulating the effects of plasma disruption with A 1 MA current pulse in a coaxial test fixture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Praeg, W.F.

1985-01-01

A test fixture for simulating plasma disruptions, comprising two coaxial cylinders, has been designed for use with Argonne's electromagnetic test facility FELIX. A pulsed power supply drives a half cycle sine wave current of 10 0 A through the test fixture generating fields of -1 . The coaxial structure is 140 cm long, has an outer cylinder with an OD of 78 cm and an inner cylinder with an OD of 8.3 cm. It is surrounded by the FELIX solenoid field of 1 T. This proposed upgrade of the FELIX facility should be useful for testing the effect of plasma disruption on First Wall-Blanket-Shield (FWBS) structures; a future upgrade of the solenoid field to 4 T will allow to simulate reactor conditions even better

Managing Supply Chain Disruptions

Science.gov (United States)

2008-08-09

to be negatively associated with innovativeness (Hage & Aiken, 1969; Moch & Morse, 1977; Rogers, 1995; Russell & Hoag, 2004). The range of new...processes, or innovations ( Moch & Morse, 1977). Grover (1993) adds that decreased autonomy of organizational components and the bounded perspective of...Structuring of Organizations: A Synthesis of the Research. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall. Moch , M. K. & Morse, E. V. (1977). Size

Disrupting the Industry with Play

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Henrik Hautop

2016-01-01

or two ago. This is significantly disrupting the industry in several market sectors. This paper describes the components of the playware and embodied artificial intelligence research that has led to disruption in the industrial robotics sector, and which points to the next disruption of the health care...

Cell disruption for microalgae biorefineries.

Science.gov (United States)

Günerken, E; D'Hondt, E; Eppink, M H M; Garcia-Gonzalez, L; Elst, K; Wijffels, R H

2015-01-01

Microalgae are a potential source for various valuable chemicals for commercial applications ranging from nutraceuticals to fuels. Objective in a biorefinery is to utilize biomass ingredients efficiently similarly to petroleum refineries in which oil is fractionated in fuels and a variety of products with higher value. Downstream processes in microalgae biorefineries consist of different steps whereof cell disruption is the most crucial part. To maintain the functionality of algae biochemicals during cell disruption while obtaining high disruption yields is an important challenge. Despite this need, studies on mild disruption of microalgae cells are limited. This review article focuses on the evaluation of conventional and emerging cell disruption technologies, and a comparison thereof with respect to their potential for the future microalgae biorefineries. The discussed techniques are bead milling, high pressure homogenization, high speed homogenization, ultrasonication, microwave treatment, pulsed electric field treatment, non-mechanical cell disruption and some emerging technologies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Major disruption process in tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kurita, Gen-ichi; Azumi, Masafumi; Tuda, Takashi; Takizuka, Tomonori; Tsunematsu, Toshihide; Tokuda, Shinji; Itoh, Kimitaka; Takeda, Tatsuoki

1981-11-01

The major disruption in a cylindrical tokamak is investigated by using the multi-helicity code, and the destabilization of the 3/2 mode by the mode coupling with the 2/1 mode is confirmed. The evolution of the magnetic field topology caused by the major disruption is studied in detail. The effect of the internal disruption on the 2/1 magnetic island width is also studied. The 2/1 magnetic island is not enhanced by the flattening of the q-profile due to the internal disruption. (author)

Plasma disruption modeling and simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hassanein, A.

1994-01-01

Disruptions in tokamak reactors are considered a limiting factor to successful operation and reliable design. The behavior of plasma-facing components during a disruption is critical to the overall integrity of the reactor. Erosion of plasma facing-material (PFM) surfaces due to thermal energy dump during the disruption can severely limit the lifetime of these components and thus diminish the economic feasibility of the reactor. A comprehensive understanding of the interplay of various physical processes during a disruption is essential for determining component lifetime and potentially improving the performance of such components. There are three principal stages in modeling the behavior of PFM during a disruption. Initially, the incident plasma particles will deposit their energy directly on the PFM surface, heating it to a very high temperature where ablation occurs. Models for plasma-material interactions have been developed and used to predict material thermal evolution during the disruption. Within a few microseconds after the start of the disruption, enough material is vaporized to intercept most of the incoming plasma particles. Models for plasma-vapor interactions are necessary to predict vapor cloud expansion and hydrodynamics. Continuous heating of the vapor cloud above the material surface by the incident plasma particles will excite, ionize, and cause vapor atoms to emit thermal radiation. Accurate models for radiation transport in the vapor are essential for calculating the net radiated flux to the material surface which determines the final erosion thickness and consequently component lifetime. A comprehensive model that takes into account various stages of plasma-material interaction has been developed and used to predict erosion rates during reactor disruption, as well during induced disruption in laboratory experiments

Supply chain risk management: review, classification and future research directions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mittal, M.L.

2011-01-01

Full Text Available In order to be more efficient, firms have adopted strategies such as outsourcing, global partnerships and lean practices. Although such strategies have tremendous abilities to improve the efficiencies but simultaneously they make the firms vulnerable to market uncertainties, dependencies and disruptions. Moreover, natural calamities and manmade crises have also put negative impact on strategic, operational and tactical performance of supply chains. These factors have triggered the interest of academia and industry to consider the risk issues as prime concerns. To capture the more fine-grained elements of diversified risk issues related to the supply chain we employ a multi-layered top town taxonomy to classify and codify the literature and put forward the probable dimensions for future research. We further study the pool of SCRM literature focusing on coordination, decision making and sector-wise SCRM implementation issues and derive relevant propositions.

Disrupt mig vel: Fire gode råd om disruption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rydén, Pernille; Ringberg, Torsten; Østergaard Jacobsen, Per

2017-01-01

Forandring. Ønsket om at være teknologisk foran, kommer ofte til at ske på bekostning af fokus på kundernes oplevelser. Lighedstegnet mellem disruption og ny teknologi er kun den halve sandhed.......Forandring. Ønsket om at være teknologisk foran, kommer ofte til at ske på bekostning af fokus på kundernes oplevelser. Lighedstegnet mellem disruption og ny teknologi er kun den halve sandhed....

Disrupting Business

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cox, Geoff; Bazzichelli, Tatiana

Disruptive Business explores some of the interconnections between art, activism and the business concept of disruptive innovation. With a backdrop of the crisis of financial capitalism, austerity cuts in the cultural sphere, the idea is to focus on potential art strategies in relation to a broken...... economy. In a perverse way, we ask whether this presents new opportunities for cultural producers to achieve more autonomy over their production process. If it is indeed possible, or desirable, what alternative business models emerge? The book is concerned broadly with business as material for reinvention...

Sleep disruption in chronic rhinosinusitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Mahdavinia, Mahboobeh; Schleimer, Robert P; Keshavarzian, Ali

2017-05-01

Chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) is a common disease of the upper airways and paranasal sinuses with a marked decline in quality of life (QOL). CRS patients suffer from sleep disruption at a significantly higher proportion (60 to 75%) than in the general population (8-18 %). Sleep disruption in CRS causes decreased QOL and is linked to poor functional outcomes such as impaired cognitive function and depression. Areas covered: A systematic PubMed/Medline search was done to assess the results of studies that have investigated sleep and sleep disturbances in CRS. Expert commentary: These studies reported sleep disruption in most CRS patients. The main risk factors for sleep disruption in CRS include allergic rhinitis, smoking, and high SNOT-22 total scores. The literature is inconsistent with regard to the prevalence of sleep-related disordered breathing (e.g. obstructive sleep apnea) in CRS patients. Although nasal obstruction is linked to sleep disruption, the extent of sleep disruption in CRS seems to expand beyond that expected from physical blockage of the upper airways alone. Despite the high prevalence of sleep disruption in CRS, and its detrimental effects on QOL, the literature contains a paucity of studies that have investigated the mechanisms underlying this major problem in CRS.

Research on assurance system of nuclear fuel supply (Contract research)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kobayashi, Naoki; Naoi, Yosuke; Wakabayashi, Shuji; Tazaki, Makiko; Senzaki, Masao

2010-08-01

Assurance of supply (AOS) of nuclear fuel is a special arrangement in case of nuclear fuel supply disruption caused by political reasons other than nonproliferation. It aims to support a stable supply of nuclear fuel while avoiding spread of sensitive enrichment technology. Current discussions on AOS have been initiated by the IAEA Director-General's article published in The Economist entitled 'Towards a Safer World' Oct. 2003. Since then, various proposals on AOS have been presented. In order to facilitate international discussions on AOS, authors have conducted studies of AOS system based on Japanese Government's proposal 'IAEA Standby Arrangement System (INFCIRC/683)'. In this paper, we have been able to discuss feasibility of AOS system more specifically by including additional costs and period required for AOS, and to present a system which could work as a practical system. Issues we have tried to tackle here include definitions of AOS, and roles of consumer States, supplier States, IAEA and nuclear industries. We present some solutions including broadening coverage of AOS, declaration by supplier States on AOS, establishing advisory committee in the IAEA on the actual application of AOS, and setting up an IAEA fund for AOS. (author)

Understanding disruptions in tokamaksa)

Science.gov (United States)

Zakharov, Leonid E.; Galkin, Sergei A.; Gerasimov, Sergei N.; contributors, JET-EFDA

2012-05-01

This paper describes progress achieved since 2007 in understanding disruptions in tokamaks, when the effect of plasma current sharing with the wall was introduced into theory. As a result, the toroidal asymmetry of the plasma current measurements during vertical disruption event (VDE) on the Joint European Torus was explained. A new kind of plasma equilibria and mode coupling was introduced into theory, which can explain the duration of the external kink 1/1 mode during VDE. The paper presents first results of numerical simulations using a free boundary plasma model, relevant to disruptions.

Thyroid effects of endocrine disrupting chemicals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boas, Malene; Feldt-Rasmussen, Ulla; Main, Katharina M

2012-01-01

In recent years, many studies of thyroid-disrupting effects of environmental chemicals have been published. Of special concern is the exposure of pregnant women and infants, as thyroid disruption of the developing organism may have deleterious effects on neurological outcome. Chemicals may exert ...... thyroid-disrupting effects, and there is emerging evidence that also phthalates, bisphenol A, brominated flame retardants and perfluorinated chemicals may have thyroid disrupting properties....

Prioritization of Managed Pork Supply Movements during a FMD Outbreak in the US.

Science.gov (United States)

Patterson, Gilbert R; Mohr, Alicia H; Snider, Tim P; Lindsay, Thomas A; Davies, Peter R; Goldsmith, Tim J; Sampedro, Fernando

2016-01-01

In the event of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the United States, local, state, and federal authorities will implement a foreign animal disease emergency response plan restricting the pork supply chain movements and likely disrupting the continuity of the swine industry business. To minimize disruptions of the food supply while providing an effective response in an outbreak, it is necessary to have proactive measures in place to ensure minimal disease spread and maximum continuation of business. Therefore, it is critical to identify candidate movements for proactive risk assessments: those that are both most likely to contribute to disease spread and most necessary for business continuity. To do this, experts from production, harvest, retail, and allied pork industries assessed 30 common pork supply movements for risk of disease spread and industry criticality. The highest priority movements for conducting a risk assessment included the movement of weaned pigs originating from multiple sow farm sources to an off-site nursery or wean to finish facility, the movement of employees or commercial crews, the movement of vaccination crews, the movement of dedicated livestock hauling trucks, and the movement of commercial crews such as manure haulers and feed trucks onto, off, or between sites. These critical movements, along with several others identified in this study, will provide an initial guide for prioritization of risk management efforts and resources to be better prepared in the event of a FMD outbreak in the United States. By specifically and proactively targeting movements that experts agree are likely to spread the disease and are critical to the continuity of business operations, potentially catastrophic consequences in the event of an outbreak can be limited.

Prioritization of managed pork supply movements during a FMD outbreak in the US

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gilbert Patterson

2016-10-01

Full Text Available In the event of a Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD outbreak in the U.S., local, state, and federal authorities will implement a foreign animal disease emergency response plan restricting the pork supply chain movements and likely disrupting the continuity of the swine industry business. To minimize disruptions of the food supply while providing an effective response in an outbreak, it is necessary to have proactive measures in place to ensure minimal disease spread and maximum continuation of business. Therefore, it is critical to identify candidate movements for proactive risk assessments: those that are both most likely to contribute to disease spread and most necessary for business continuity. To do this, experts from production, harvest, retail, and allied pork industries assessed 30 common pork supply movements for risk of disease spread and industry criticality. The highest priority movements for conducting a risk assessment included the movement of weaned pigs originating from multiple sow farm sources to an offsite nursery or wean to finish facility, the movement of employees or commercial crews, the movement of vaccination crews, the movement of dedicated livestock hauling trucks, and the movement of commercial crews such as manure haulers and feed trucks onto, off, or between sites. These critical movements, along with several others identified in this study, will provide an initial guide for prioritization of risk management efforts and resources to be better prepared in the event of a FMD outbreak in the United States. By specifically and proactively targeting movements that experts agree are likely to spread the disease and are critical to the continuity of business operations, potentially catastrophic consequences in the event of an outbreak can be limited.

MODEL DINAMIS SUPPLY CHAIN BERAS BERKELANJUTAN DALAM UPAYA KETAHANAN PANGAN NASIONAL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akhmad Mahbubi

2014-09-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACTThis study was aimed to 1 identify the basic system of rice supply chain, 2 design a conceptual system and formulate a model of rice supply chain to achieve rice food security and 3 identify the sustainability behavior of the rice supply chain systems for the next 30 years from the aspects of economical revenue, social welfare and environment. Dynamic model was used to analyze the data. Referring to a variety of technical indicators achievement in the blueprint of national food security, several policy scenarios were used in the analysis of the behavior of rice supply chain systems until 2042 in economical revenue, social welfare and the environment aspects. The results of this study showed that the self-sufficiency of rice will continue until 2042 (the end of the study’s simulation. It also showed that in the long run, national rice food security will be disrupted if the government does not stop the conversion of agricultural land. Therefore, the government needs to issue a policy related to the conversion of agricultural land, especially paddy fields for infrastructure development.Keywords: rice, sustainable, food security, dynamic models, supply chainABSTRAKTujuan Penelitian adalah 1 mengidentifikasi sistem dasar supply chain beras, 2 menyusun konseptual sistem dan formulasi model supply chain beras untuk pencapaian ketahanan pangan nasional, serta 3 mengetahui perilaku sistem supply chain beras untuk 30 tahun kedepan tetap berkelanjutan dilihat dari aspek pendapatan ekonomi, sosial dan lingkungan. Analisis data menggunakan model dinamis. Beberapa skenario dalam analisis perilaku supply chain beras sampai tahun 2042 dilihat dari aspek pendapatan ekonomi, sosial dan lingkungan mengacu pada indikator pencapaian dalam blue print ketahanan pangan nasional. Hasil penelitian ini, swasembada pangan beras akan berkelanjutan sampai 2042 (akhir dari simulasi penelitian ini. Dalam jangka panjang, ketahanan pangan beras nasional akan terganggu

Disruption Physics and Mitigation on DIII-D

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whyte, D.G.; Humphreys, D.A.; Kellman, A.G.

2005-01-01

The contributions of the DIII-D tokamak toward the understanding and control of disruptions are reviewed. Disruptions are found to be deterministic, and the underlying causes of disruption can therefore be predicted and avoided. With sufficiently rapid detection, possible damage from disruptions can be mitigated using an understanding of disruption phenomenology and plasma physics. Regimes of high β are readily available in DIII-D and provide access to relatively high energy density disruptions, despite DIII-D's moderate magnetic field and size. DIII-D, with all-graphite wall armor and wall conditioning between discharges, has proven highly resilient to the deleterious effects that disruptions can have on plasma operations. Simultaneously, exploitation and adaptation of DIII-D's extensive core and edge plasma diagnostic set have allowed for unique plasma measurements during disruptions. These measurements have tied into the development of several physical models used to understand aspects of disruptions, such as magnetohydrodynamic growth at the disruption onset, radiation energy balance through the thermal quench, and halo currents during the current quench. Based on this fundamental understanding, DIII-D has developed techniques to mitigate the harmful effects of disruptions by radiative dissipation of the plasma energy and extrapolated these techniques for possible use on larger devices like ITER

Mo-99 supply issues: Status report and lessons learned

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ponsard, B.

2010-01-01

The worldwide supply of 99 Mo relies on a limited number of research reactors and processing facilities. Its production is essential for the nuclear medicine as 99m Tc, obtained from 99 Mo/ 99m Tc generators, is used in about 80% of the diagnostic nuclear imaging procedures. These applications represent yearly approximately 30 million examinations worldwide. The short half-life's of 99 Mo (66 hours) and its daughter 99m Tc (6 hours) require a regular supply of 99 Mo/ 99m Tc generators to hospitals or central radiopharmacies. Currently, there are only five nuclear reactors involved in the production of 99 Mo on industrial scale: NRU (Canada), HFR (Netherlands), BR2 (Belgium), OSIRIS (France) and SAFARI (South Africa). They irradiate highly enriched uranium targets for the production of about 95% of the available 99 Mo by four processing facilities: AECL/MDS NORDION (Canada), COVIDIEN (Netherlands), IRE (Belgium) and NTP (South Africa). However, these ageing reactors are subject to unscheduled shutdowns and longer maintenance periods making the 99 Mo supply chain vulnerable and unreliable. Several severe disruptions have been experienced since the fall 2005 due to the occurrence of problems at different stages of the supply chain: reactor outages, release of activity from processing facilities, recall of 99 Mo/ 99m Tc generators by the manufacturers, ... It is not expected that the situation will improve significantly in the near future. Therefore, several workshops have been organized in 2009 by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Association of Imaging Producers and Equipment Suppliers (AIPES) to define measures that should be taken to secure the 99 Mo supply in the short, medium and long term. This paper summarizes the current status of the 99 Mo supply, discusses the ongoing plans for additional 99 Mo production capacity and outlines the issues for a reliable global supply chain. (author)

Disruptive innovation as an entrepreneurial process

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chandra, Y.; Yang, S.-J.S.; Singh, P.; Prajogo, D.; O'Neill, P.; Rahman, S.

2008-01-01

Research on conditions and causal mechanisms that influence disruptive innovation has been relatively unexplored in the extant research in disruptive innovation. By re-conceptualizing disruptive innovation as an entrepreneurial process at product, firm and industry levels, this paper draws on

Automatic location of disruption times in JET

Science.gov (United States)

Moreno, R.; Vega, J.; Murari, A.

2014-11-01

The loss of stability and confinement in tokamak plasmas can induce critical events known as disruptions. Disruptions produce strong electromagnetic forces and thermal loads which can damage fundamental components of the devices. Determining the disruption time is extremely important for various disruption studies: theoretical models, physics-driven models, or disruption predictors. In JET, during the experimental campaigns with the JET-C (Carbon Fiber Composite) wall, a common criterion to determine the disruption time consisted of locating the time of the thermal quench. However, with the metallic ITER-like wall (JET-ILW), this criterion is usually not valid. Several thermal quenches may occur previous to the current quench but the temperature recovers. Therefore, a new criterion has to be defined. A possibility is to use the start of the current quench as disruption time. This work describes the implementation of an automatic data processing method to estimate the disruption time according to this new definition. This automatic determination allows both reducing human efforts to locate the disruption times and standardizing the estimates (with the benefit of being less vulnerable to human errors).

Automatic location of disruption times in JET.

Science.gov (United States)

Moreno, R; Vega, J; Murari, A

2014-11-01

The loss of stability and confinement in tokamak plasmas can induce critical events known as disruptions. Disruptions produce strong electromagnetic forces and thermal loads which can damage fundamental components of the devices. Determining the disruption time is extremely important for various disruption studies: theoretical models, physics-driven models, or disruption predictors. In JET, during the experimental campaigns with the JET-C (Carbon Fiber Composite) wall, a common criterion to determine the disruption time consisted of locating the time of the thermal quench. However, with the metallic ITER-like wall (JET-ILW), this criterion is usually not valid. Several thermal quenches may occur previous to the current quench but the temperature recovers. Therefore, a new criterion has to be defined. A possibility is to use the start of the current quench as disruption time. This work describes the implementation of an automatic data processing method to estimate the disruption time according to this new definition. This automatic determination allows both reducing human efforts to locate the disruption times and standardizing the estimates (with the benefit of being less vulnerable to human errors).

Search and Disrupt

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ørding Olsen, Anders

. However, incumbent sources engaged in capability reconfiguration to accommodate disruption improve search efforts in disruptive technologies. The paper concludes that the value of external sources is contingent on more than their knowledge. Specifically, interdependence of sources in search gives rise...... to influence from individual strategic interests on the outcomes. More generally, this points to the need for understanding the two-way influence of sources, rather than viewing external search as one-way knowledge accessing....

Green paper - towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply, technical document

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

The Green Paper sets forth a series of questions regarding the security of energy in Europe. It addresses the issue of increased consumption and dependence on oil, and sketches out possible strategies for broadening the energy supply and slowing global warming. It draws an alarming picture of the EU energy situation. If no action is taken, it predicts that the EU energy dependency will climb from 50% in 2000 to 70% in 2030. The particular situation for the main imported fossil fuels is described. This technical paper is particularly devoted to the context, the energy sources, the supply disruption, the energy demand, the fuel balance, the energy technology and the transport of fuel in the EU (transit). (A.L.B.)

Low edge safety factor operation and passive disruption avoidance in current carrying plasmas by the addition of stellarator rotational transform

Science.gov (United States)

Pandya, M. D.; ArchMiller, M. C.; Cianciosa, M. R.; Ennis, D. A.; Hanson, J. D.; Hartwell, G. J.; Hebert, J. D.; Herfindal, J. L.; Knowlton, S. F.; Ma, X.; Massidda, S.; Maurer, D. A.; Roberds, N. A.; Traverso, P. J.

2015-11-01

Low edge safety factor operation at a value less than two ( q (a )=1 /ι̷tot(a )routine on the Compact Toroidal Hybrid device with the addition of sufficient external rotational transform. Presently, the operational space of this current carrying stellarator extends down to q (a )=1.2 without significant n = 1 kink mode activity after the initial plasma current rise phase of the discharge. The disruption dynamics of these low edge safety factor plasmas depend upon the fraction of helical field rotational transform from external stellarator coils to that generated by the plasma current. We observe that with approximately 10% of the total rotational transform supplied by the stellarator coils, low edge q disruptions are passively suppressed and avoided even though q(a) disrupt, the instability precursors measured and implicated as the cause are internal tearing modes with poloidal, m, and toroidal, n, helical mode numbers of m /n =3 /2 and 4/3 observed on external magnetic sensors and m /n =1 /1 activity observed on core soft x-ray emissivity measurements. Even though the edge safety factor passes through and becomes much less than q(a) disruption phenomenology observed.

Pursuing minimally disruptive medicine: disruption from illness and health care-related demands is correlated with patient capacity.

Science.gov (United States)

Boehmer, Kasey R; Shippee, Nathan D; Beebe, Timothy J; Montori, Victor M

2016-06-01

Chronic conditions burden patients with illness and treatments. We know little about the disruption of life by the work of dialysis in relation to the resources patients can mobilize, that is, their capacity, to deal with such demands. We sought to determine the disruption of life by dialysis and its relation to patient capacity to cope. We administered a survey to 137 patients on dialysis at an academic medical center. We captured disruption from illness and treatment, and physical, mental, personal, social, financial, and environmental aspects of patient capacity using validated scales. Covariates included number of prescriptions, hours spent on health care, existence of dependents, age, sex, and income level. On average, patients reported levels of capacity and disruption comparable to published levels. In multivariate regression models, limited physical, financial, and mental capacity were significantly associated with greater disruption. Patients in the top quartile of disruption had lower-than-expected physical, financial, and mental capacity. Our sample generally had capacity comparable to other populations and may be able to meet the demands imposed by treatment. Those with reduced physical, financial, and mental capacity reported higher disruption and represent a vulnerable group that may benefit from innovations in minimally disruptive medicine. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Supply and Demand Update of the Molybdenum-99 Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-08-01

Medical diagnostic imaging techniques using technetium-99m account for roughly 80% of all nuclear medicine procedures, representing over 30 million examinations worldwide every year. Disruptions in the supply chain of these medical isotopes - which have half-lives of 66 hours for molybdenum-99 ( 99 Mo) and 6 hours for its daughter isotope, technetium-99m (' 99m Tc), and thus must be produced continually - can lead to cancellations or delays in important medical testing services. Unfortunately, supply reliability has declined over the past decade due to unexpected or extended shutdowns at the few ageing 99 Mo-producing research reactor and processing facilities. These shutdowns have created global supply shortages. In 2011, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), along with its High-level Group on the Security of Supply of Medical Radioisotopes (HLG-MR), released a report that presents the reasons behind the lack of infrastructure that led to global supply shortages and a policy approach to encourage long-term medical isotope supply security. In that report, The Supply of Medical Radioisotopes: The Path to Reliability, the NEA also provides potential futures of supply and demand out to 2030. Since the release of The Path there have been a number of changes in the market and therefore this document provides an update on the 2011 supply and demand situation. This update is based on information provided to the NEA by members of the HLG-MR and other key stakeholders. This presentation of supply and demand future scenarios for the 99 Mo market revises previous NEA future scenarios based on new data and target conversion commitments from the supply chain. The update, unfortunately, does not present a more optimistic future scenario than previous presentations - the concern around the uneconomic situation of the supply chain continues to dominate the potential for new projects. This results in the potential for long-term shortages within the decade. However, there are a

Essays on the economics of energy markets. Security of supply and greenhouse gas abatement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dieckhoener, Caroline

2013-01-01

In summary, the presented thesis analyzes two distinct economic subjects: security of supply in natural gas markets and greenhouse gas abatement potentials in the residential heating market. These subjects considered both reflect key points in the triangle of energy policy and are both associated with transnational market failures within energy markets. The security of supply analyses in an intermeshed network are approached from a rather normative, top-down perspective of a social planner. On the contrary, the analyses of greenhouse gases emitted by households are positive analyses of consumer choices. The normative analyses of security of supply in natural gas markets and the positive analyses on greenhouse gas abatement in the residential heating market are organized in two parts of the thesis. 1. Normative analyses - Security of supply in natural gas markets: The two papers of the first part of the dissertation thesis are based on a normative approach with the European natural gas market and infrastructure model TIGER that allows for security of supply analyses. The general idea behind the modeling approach is based on the assumption of a social planner and finds an efficient utilization of the natural gas infrastructure. More precisely, the security of supply analyses conducted in the first part of the thesis refer to scenario simulations of disrupted supply routes in the European natural gas network. The effects of these security of supply scenarios on the usage of other infrastructure components, on marginal supply costs and disruptions to consumers are investigated. 2. Positive analyses of greenhouse gas abatement potentials - Econometric modeling of consumer choices and evaluation of public policies: The second part of the thesis includes two positive analyses which investigate household choices to derive greenhouse gas abatement potentials. In the residential heating market, the energy efficiency level exhibited and the type of energy carrier used are

Essays on the economics of energy markets. Security of supply and greenhouse gas abatement

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dieckhoener, Caroline

2013-02-01

In summary, the presented thesis analyzes two distinct economic subjects: security of supply in natural gas markets and greenhouse gas abatement potentials in the residential heating market. These subjects considered both reflect key points in the triangle of energy policy and are both associated with transnational market failures within energy markets. The security of supply analyses in an intermeshed network are approached from a rather normative, top-down perspective of a social planner. On the contrary, the analyses of greenhouse gases emitted by households are positive analyses of consumer choices. The normative analyses of security of supply in natural gas markets and the positive analyses on greenhouse gas abatement in the residential heating market are organized in two parts of the thesis. 1. Normative analyses - Security of supply in natural gas markets: The two papers of the first part of the dissertation thesis are based on a normative approach with the European natural gas market and infrastructure model TIGER that allows for security of supply analyses. The general idea behind the modeling approach is based on the assumption of a social planner and finds an efficient utilization of the natural gas infrastructure. More precisely, the security of supply analyses conducted in the first part of the thesis refer to scenario simulations of disrupted supply routes in the European natural gas network. The effects of these security of supply scenarios on the usage of other infrastructure components, on marginal supply costs and disruptions to consumers are investigated. 2. Positive analyses of greenhouse gas abatement potentials - Econometric modeling of consumer choices and evaluation of public policies: The second part of the thesis includes two positive analyses which investigate household choices to derive greenhouse gas abatement potentials. In the residential heating market, the energy efficiency level exhibited and the type of energy carrier used are

Structured Literature Review of digital disruption literature

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vesti, Helle; Rosenstand, Claus Andreas Foss; Gertsen, Frank

2018-01-01

Digital disruption is a term/phenomenon frequently appearing in innovation management literature. However, no academic consensus exists as to what it entails; conceptual nor theoretical. We use the SLR-method (Structured Literature Review) to investigate digital disruption literature. A SLR......-study conducted in 2017 revealed some useful information on how disruption and digital disruption literature has developed over a specific period. However, this study was less representative of papers addressing digital disruption; which is the in-depth subject of this paper. To accommodate this, we intend...... to conduct a similar SLR-study assembling a body literature having digital disruption as the only common denominator...

Mechanistic evaluation of endocrine disrupting chemicals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Taxvig, Camilla

BACKGROUND: This PhD project is part of the research area concerning effects of endocrine disrupters at the National Food Institute at DTU in Denmark. Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) have proved to be important for improper development of the male reproductive organs and subsequent for the ...... metabolising system using liver S9 mixtures or hepatic rat microsomes could be a convenient method for the incorporation of metabolic aspects into in vitro testing for endocrine disrupting effects.......BACKGROUND: This PhD project is part of the research area concerning effects of endocrine disrupters at the National Food Institute at DTU in Denmark. Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) have proved to be important for improper development of the male reproductive organs and subsequent......, to be able to detect effects and predict mixture effects. In addition, a new hypothesis have emerge concerning a potential role of exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals, and the development of obesity and obesity related diseases. AIM: This PhD project aimed to gain more information regarding...

Vulnerability of water supply systems to cyber-physical attacks

Science.gov (United States)

Galelli, Stefano; Taormina, Riccardo; Tippenhauer, Nils; Salomons, Elad; Ostfeld, Avi

2016-04-01

The adoption of smart meters, distributed sensor networks and industrial control systems has largely improved the level of service provided by modern water supply systems. Yet, the progressive computerization exposes these critical infrastructures to cyber-physical attacks, which are generally aimed at stealing critical information (cyber-espionage) or causing service disruption (denial-of-service). Recent statistics show that water and power utilities are undergoing frequent attacks - such as the December power outage in Ukraine - , attracting the interest of operators and security agencies. Taking the security of Water Distribution Networks (WDNs) as domain of study, our work seeks to characterize the vulnerability of WDNs to cyber-physical attacks, so as to conceive adequate defense mechanisms. We extend the functionality of EPANET, which models hydraulic and water quality processes in pressurized pipe networks, to include a cyber layer vulnerable to repeated attacks. Simulation results on a medium-scale network show that several hydraulic actuators (valves and pumps, for example) can be easily attacked, causing both service disruption - i.e., water spillage and loss of pressure - and structural damages - e.g., pipes burst. Our work highlights the need for adequate countermeasures, such as attacks detection and reactive control systems.

Research on assurance system of nuclear fuel supply (Contract research)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kobayashi, Naoki; Naoi, Yosuke; Wakabayashi, Shuji; Tazaki, Makiko; Senzaki, Masao

2010-03-01

Assurance of supply (AOS) of nuclear fuel is a special arrangement in case of nuclear fuel supply disruption caused by political reasons other than nonproliferation. It aims to support a stable supply of nuclear fuel while avoiding unnecessary spread of sensitive enrichment technology. Current discussions on AOS have been initiated by the IAEA Director-General's article published in The Economist entitled 'Towards a Safer World' Oct. 2003. Since then, various proposals on AOS have been presented. In order to facilitate international discussions on AOS, authors have conducted studies of AOS system based on Japanese Government's proposal 'IAEA Standby Arrangement System (INFCIRC/683)'. In this paper, we gave an overview of discussions on AOS since World War II, and elaborated on some of current proposals. We have been able to discuss feasibility of AOS system more specifically by including additional costs and period required for AOS, and to present a system which could work as a practical system. Issues we have tried to tackle here include definitions of AOS, and roles of consumer states, supplier states, IAEA and nuclear industries. We present some solutions including broadening coverage of AOS, declaration by supplier states on AOS, establishing advisory committee in the IAEA on the actual application of AOS, and setting up an IAEA fund for AOS. (author)

A stochastic programming approach towards optimization of biofuel supply chain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azadeh, Ali; Vafa Arani, Hamed; Dashti, Hossein

2014-01-01

Bioenergy has been recognized as an important source of energy that will reduce dependency on petroleum. It would have a positive impact on the economy, environment, and society. Production of bioenergy is expected to increase. As a result, we foresee an increase in the number of biorefineries in the near future. This paper analyzes challenges with supplying biomass to a biorefinery and shipping biofuel to demand centers. A stochastic linear programming model is proposed within a multi-period planning framework to maximize the expected profit. The model deals with a time-staged, multi-commodity, production/distribution system, facility locations and capacities, technologies, and material flows. We illustrate the model outputs and discuss the results through numerical examples considering disruptions in biofuel supply chain. Finally, sensitivity analyses are performed to gain managerial insights on how profit changes due to existing uncertainties. - Highlights: • A robust model of biofuel SC is proposed and a sensitivity analysis implemented. • Demand of products is a function of price and GBM (Geometric Brownian Motion) is used for prices of biofuels. • Uncertainties in SC network are captured through defining probabilistic scenarios. • Both traditional feedstock and lignocellulosic biomass are considered for biofuel production. • Developed model is applicable to any related biofuel supply chain regardless of region

Overview of core disruptive accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marchaterre, J.F.

1977-01-01

An overview of the analysis of core-disruptive accidents is given. These analyses are for the purpose of understanding and predicting fast reactor behavior in severe low probability accident conditions, to establish the consequences of such conditions and to provide a basis for evaluating consequence limiting design features. The methods are used to analyze core-disruptive accidents from initiating event to complete core disruption, the effects of the accident on reactor structures and the resulting radiological consequences are described

Security of Supply of Hydrocarbonates and Differences in Approach to the Issue Definition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dragicevic, T.

2006-01-01

Security of Supply became an issue during the First World War when First Lord of Admiralty, W. Churchill, decided to modernize the Navy by replacing coal with oil as a propelling fuel for ships. Crude oil that arrived from the then Persia opened up the question of Security. First Lord of Admiralty defined it in the following way: S afety and certainty in oil lie in variety and variety alone... . This concept of diversification of supply became topical again during the oil crises in 1973. It is topical even today as the world faces disruptions in supply caused by war intervention in Iraq, Al-Qaeda terrorist threats, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico or difficulties in natural gas supply caused by disputes between Russia and Ukraine. The important element of security of supply is the own oil and gas production from domestic fields or foreign concessions. The countries that have their own oil industry regard highly the strategic importance of their own reserves. Private ownership of shares in oil companies or sources of capital does not diminish this strategic importance. Participation of renewable energy sources is important not only for environmental protection but for mitigating dependence on energy imports. Croatian energy strategy should be adjusted to new challenges and conditions on the energy market, taking also into account the relevant EU regulations.(author)

Disruption studies in ASDEX Upgrade

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pautasso, G.

2002-01-01

Disruption generate large thermal and mechanical stresses on the tokamak components. For a future reactor disruptions have a significant impact on the design since all loading conditions must be analyzed in accordance with stricter design criteria (due to safety or difficult maintenance). Therefore the uncertainties affecting the predicted stresses must be reduced as much as possible with a more comprehensive set of measurements and analyses in this generation of experimental machines, and avoidance/ predictive methods must be developed further. The study of disruptions on ASDEX Upgrade is focused on these subjects, namely on: (1) understanding the physical mechanisms leading to this phenomenon and learning to avoid it or to predict its occurrence (with neural networks, for example) and to mitigate its effects; (2) analyzing the effects of disruptions on the machine to determine the functional dependence of the thermal and mechanical loads upon the discharge parameters. This allows to dimension or reinforce the machine components to withstand these loads and to extrapolate them to tokamaks still in the design phase; (3) learning to mitigate the consequence of disruptions. (author)

Disruptive event analysis: volcanism and igneous intrusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.M.

1979-01-01

Three basic topics are addressed for the disruptive event analysis: first, the range of disruptive consequences of a radioactive waste repository by volcanic activity; second, the possible reduction of the risk of disruption by volcanic activity through selective siting of a repository; and third, the quantification of the probability of repository disruption by volcanic activity

Routine Responses to Disruption of Routines

Science.gov (United States)

Guha, Mahua

2015-01-01

"Organisational routines" is a widely studied research area. However, there is a dearth of research on disruption of routines. The few studies on disruption of routines discussed problem-solving activities that are carried out in response to disruption. In contrast, this study develops a theory of "solution routines" that are a…

An oil demand and supply model incorporating monetary policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Askari, Hossein; Krichene, Noureddine

2010-01-01

Oil price inflation may have had a significant role in pushing the world economy into its worst post-war recession during 2008-2009. Reserve currency central banks pursued an overly expansionary monetary policy during 2001-2009, in the form of low or negative real interest rates and accompanied by a rapidly falling US dollar, while paying inadequate attention to the destabilizing effects on oil markets. In this paper, we show that monetary policy variables, namely key interest rates and the US dollar exchange rate, had a powerful effect on oil markets. World oil demand was significantly influenced by interest and dollar exchange rates, while oil supply was rigid. Oil demand and supply have very low price elasticity and this characteristic makes oil prices highly volatile and subject to wider fluctuations than the prices of other commodities. Aggressive monetary policy would stimulate oil demand, however, it would be met with rigid oil supply and would turn inflationary and disruptive to economic growth if there was little excess capacity in oil output. We argue that a measure of stability in oil markets cannot be achieved unless monetary policy is restrained and real interest rates become significantly positive. Monetary tightening during 1979-1982 might imply that monetary policy has to be restrained for a long period and with high interest rates in order to bring stability back to oil markets. (author)

The disruption management model.

Science.gov (United States)

McAlister, James

2011-10-01

Within all organisations, business continuity disruptions present a set of dilemmas that managers may not have dealt with before in their normal daily duties. The disruption management model provides a simple but effective management tool to enable crisis management teams to stay focused on recovery in the midst of a business continuity incident. The model has four chronological primary headlines, which steer the team through a quick-time crisis decision-making process. The procedure facilitates timely, systematic, rationalised and justified decisions, which can withstand post-event scrutiny. The disruption management model has been thoroughly tested within an emergency services environment and is proven to significantly support clear and concise decision making in a business continuity context.

Sustainable Disruption Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vaaben, Bo Valdemar

The world we live in is globalized. Goods are seldom made in the place where they are used or consumed, and we do increasingly travel to other countries for either business or pleasure. In our everyday lives we rely on well-functioning global transportations systems to continue the standard...... in the same way, when operation is disrupted. Never the less, we may recall that the Suez Canal was closed due to riots in Egypt, that the fuel price was impacted by threats of closing of the Strait of Hormuz, and we do from time to time hear about acts of piracy outside the coast of Somalia. All...... papers combining disruption management and flight planning through an integrated optimization approach. An additional contribution of the thesis is to show how flexible flight speeds can be used to improve recovery from disruptions, while at the same time allowing an airline to trade off fuel costs...

Estimates of immediate effects on world markets of a hypothetical disruption to Russia’s supply of six mineral commodities

Science.gov (United States)

Safirova, Elena; Barry, James J.; Hastorun, Sinan; Matos, Grecia R.; Perez, Alberto Alexander; Bedinger, George M.; Bray, E. Lee; Jasinski, Stephen M.; Kuck, Peter H.; Loferski, Patricia J.

2017-05-18

The potential immediate effects of a hypothetical shock to Russia’s supply of selected mineral commodities on the world market and on individual countries were determined and monetized (in 2014 U.S. dollars). The mineral commodities considered were aluminum (refined primary), nickel (refined primary), palladium (refined) and platinum (refined), potash, and titanium (mill products), and the regions and countries of primary interest were the United States, the European Union (EU–28), and China. The shock is assumed to have infinite duration, but only the immediate effects, those limited by a 1-year period, are considered.A methodology for computing and monetizing the potential impacts was developed. Then the data pertaining to all six mineral commodities were collected and the most likely effects were computed. Because of the uncertainties associated with some of the data, sensitivity analyses were conducted to confirm the validity of the results.Results indicate that the impact on the United States arising from a shock to Russia’s supply, in terms of the value of net exports, would range from a gain of \\$336 million for titanium mill products to a loss of \\$237 million for potash; thus, the overall effect of a supply shock is likely to be quite modest. The study also demonstrates that, taken alone, Russia’s share in the world production of a particular commodity is not necessarily indicative of the size of potential impacts resulting from a supply shock; other factors, such as prices, domestic production, and the structure of international commodity flows were found to be important as well.

Disruption and Distinctiveness in Higher Education

Science.gov (United States)

Purcell, Wendy

2014-01-01

"Disruption"--while an evocative word triggering feelings of anxiety and perhaps even fear--also signals renewal and growth. The Higher Education (HE) sector in England has experienced some profound disruption over the years, and yet has emerged stronger and renewed in many ways. The impact of recent disruptive forces, from fees to the…

Probabilistic analysis of tokamak plasma disruptions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanzo, D.L.; Apostolakis, G.E.

1985-01-01

An approximate analytical solution to the heat conduction equations used in modeling component melting and vaporization resulting from plasma disruptions is presented. This solution is then used to propagate uncertainties in the input data characterizing disruptions, namely, energy density and disruption time, to obtain a probabilistic description of the output variables of interest, material melted and vaporized. (orig.)

Plasma membrane disruption: repair, prevention, adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

McNeil, Paul L.; Steinhardt, Richard A.

2003-01-01

Many metazoan cells inhabit mechanically stressful environments and, consequently, their plasma membranes are frequently disrupted. Survival requires that the cell rapidly repair or reseal the disruption. Rapid resealing is an active and complex structural modification that employs endomembrane as its primary building block, and cytoskeletal and membrane fusion proteins as its catalysts. Endomembrane is delivered to the damaged plasma membrane through exocytosis, a ubiquitous Ca2+-triggered response to disruption. Tissue and cell level architecture prevent disruptions from occurring, either by shielding cells from damaging levels of force, or, when this is not possible, by promoting safe force transmission through the plasma membrane via protein-based cables and linkages. Prevention of disruption also can be a dynamic cell or tissue level adaptation triggered when a damaging level of mechanical stress is imposed. Disease results from failure of either the preventive or resealing mechanisms.

From Digital Disruption to Business Model Scalability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Christian; Lund, Morten; Thomsen, Peter Poulsen

2017-01-01

This article discusses the terms disruption, digital disruption, business models and business model scalability. It illustrates how managers should be using these terms for the benefit of their business by developing business models capable of achieving exponentially increasing returns to scale...... will seldom lead to business model scalability capable of competing with digital disruption(s)....... as a response to digital disruption. A series of case studies illustrate that besides frequent existing messages in the business literature relating to the importance of creating agile businesses, both in growing and declining economies, as well as hard to copy value propositions or value propositions that take...

β limit disruptions in the TFTR tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fredrickson, E.D.; McGuire, K.; Janos, A.; Bell, M.; Budny, R.V.; Bush, C.E.; Manickam, J.; Mynick, H.; Nazikian, R.; Taylor, G.

1994-11-01

A disruptive β limit (β = plasma pressure/magnetic pressure) is observed in high performance plasmas in TFTR. The MHD character of these disruptions differs substantially from the disruptions in high density plasmas (density limit disruptions) on TFTR. The high β disruptions can occur with less than a milliseconds warning in the form of a fast growing precursor. The precursor appears to be an external kink or internal (m,n)=(1,1) kink strongly coupled through finite β effects and toroidal terms to higher m components. It does not have the open-quote cold bubble close-quote structure found in density limit disruptions. There is also no evidence for a change in the internal inductance, i.e., a major reconnection of the flux, at the time of the thermal quench

3rd Annual Disruptive Technology Conference

Science.gov (United States)

2006-09-07

Panel -- The Warfighter’s Perspective The Impact of Disruptive Technologies on Joint Warfighting MG Michael Vane, USA, Vice Director for Force...Structure, Resources & Assessment, Joint Staff, J-8 Panel -- Perspectives of Change: Identifying the Emerging Commercial Disruptive Technologies Decision...Mark Lucas, Board Member OSGeo, RadiantBlue Technologies Panel -- The Search for Disruptive Technologies - a “Blue Force” Multiplier Advanced

The Effects of Disruption on Strategic Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Drejer, Anders

2017-01-01

There is a lot of interest in Disruption these days even though the concept itself is still under formation. Disruption can be traced back to the idea of disruptive technological change and the late 1990s but has reemerged in the public eye in current years under guises such as Big Data......, Digitalization, Globalization and much more. Furthermore, the effects of disruption are now being felt by organizations and industries all over the world. In this paper, we will try to outline and illustrate some of those effects using the case-study of an international, Danish, SME. The case company has been...... forced to face some challenges caused by disruption and in the process of doing so has changed its strategy process significantly towards a more learning based approach to strategic management. Keywords: disruption; case- study; SME; strategy process....

Analysis of the electricity supply-demand balance for the winter of 2011-2012. The risk of supply disruption is moderate. A globally comparable situation to the one of the last winter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

Twice a year, RTE publishes a forecast study of the electricity supply and demand in continental France for the summer and winter periods. The study is based on the information supplied by electric utilities concerning the expected availability of power generation means and on statistical meteorological models. Safety margins are calculated using thousands of probabilistic scenarios combining various production and consumption situations. This report is the forecast study for the winter of 2011-2012

Ensuring the Flexibility and Continuity of Supplies in the B2B Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grażyna Wieteska

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Aim/purpose - The purpose of this paper is to recognize and compare the best practices that ensure the flexibility and continuity of supplies. Although the flexibility drivers and continuity risk drivers, according to the literature, are actually the same, there is a lack of research articles on this aspect. Design/methodology/approach - A two-phase methodology design, based on the literature review and in-depth interviews, was used, and seven in-depth interviews with the representatives of manufacturing companies that operate in different sectors were conducted. Findings - Supply flexibility and continuity are presented in the literature, mainly as the responses to the business environmental events/changes that have already occurred. Nevertheless, the researched manufacturing companies recognize their use in terms of prevention as well. The researched enterprises use traditional ways of dealing with supply problems (alternative supplier, inventory buffers. They do not really connect ensuring supply continuity with long-term disruptions, but rather understand it as prevention of typical supply delays and quality problems. The respondents regard supplier flexibility not only as a way of responding to the forecasted demand changes but also to unexpected situations. The companies ensure supply continuity and supply flexibility using similar but not exactly the same strategies. For the reactive strategies, sourcing decisions are crucial, whereas for preventive strategies - it is supplier performance management. Research implications/limitations - The small number of conducted interviews is a limitation of performed research, however, some directions for future research can be noted. Apart from other implications described in the paper, it is deduced that sourcing flexibility positively influences supply continuity. Nevertheless, this hypothesis needs quantitative verification.Originality/value/contribution - The paper compares the issue of supply

Is there enough vaccine to eradicate measles? An integrated analysis of measles-containing vaccine supply and demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Graegar; Michelson, Joshua; Singh, Rohit; Dabbagh, Alya; Hoekstra, Edward; van den Ent, Maya; Mallya, Apoorva

2011-07-01

Responding to regional advancements in combating measles, the World Health Organization in May 2008 called for an assessment of the feasibility of measles eradication, including whether sufficient vaccine supply exists. Interviews with international health officials and vaccine-makers provided data for a detailed model of worldwide demand and supply for measles-containing vaccine (MCV). The study projected global MCV demand through 2025 with and without a global eradication goal. The study found that 5.2 billion MCV doses must be administered during 2010-2025 to maintain current measles programs, and 5.9 billion doses would likely be needed with a 2020 eradication goal; in the most intensive scenario, demand could increase to 7.5 billion doses. These volumes are within existing and planned MCV-manufacturing capacity, although there are risks. In some markets, capacity is concentrated: Supply-chain disruptions could reduce supply or increase prices. Mitigation strategies could include stockpiling, long-term contracts, and further coordination with manufacturers. © The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved.

What caused the recent reduction in heroin supply in Australia?

Science.gov (United States)

Wodak, Alex

2008-08-01

Heroin availability and purity decreased and prices increased in Australia suddenly in early 2001. The heroin market in Australia has still not returned to the status quo ante after more than six years. Benefits of the heroin shortage, including a substantial reduction in drug overdose deaths and property crime, are generally considered to have outweighed adverse effects which included increased use of other drugs, especially stimulants, with a subsequent increase in aggression, violence and mental illness. Some commentators attributed the heroin shortage to a combination of factors, while an influential study highlighted the importance of supply control asserting that increased funding and improved effectiveness of domestic drug law enforcement produced critical heroin seizures which disrupted major syndicates, thereby producing the heroin shortage. Evidence to support a critical role for drug law enforcement in the heroin shortage is weak with some recent evidence contradicting key assertions used to support the supply control hypothesis. Although the most likely interpretation is still a combination of multiple factors, the most important factors appear to have been a substantial recent reduction in source opium cultivation and heroin production in Burma, but probably also increased heroin consumption en route through China and a switch from heroin to amphetamine production in Burma. This interpretation is consistent with the international experience of several recent decades in numerous countries where national heroin shortages have occurred rarely and generally only briefly, notwithstanding vigorous and very well resourced supply control efforts. The recent reduction in heroin supply in Australia, the most severe, longest lasting and best-documented heroin shortage in the world, cannot be confidently attributed, solely or largely, to improved domestic drug law enforcement. At best, domestic law enforcement may have made a small contribution compared to several

Towards a Framework of Digital Platform Disruption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kazan, Erol; Tan, Chee-Wee; Lim, Eric T. K.

2014-01-01

Digital platforms are disruptive information technology (IT) artifacts that erode conventional business logic associated with traditional market structures. This paper presents a framework for examining the disruptive potential of digital platforms whereby we postulate that the strategic interplay...... digital platforms purposely decouple platform layers, to foster open innovation and accelerate market disruption. This paper therefore represents a first concrete step aimed at unravelling the disruptive potential of digital platforms....... of governance regimes and platform layers is deterministic of whether disruptive derivatives are permitted to flourish. This framework has been employed in a comparative case study between centralized (i.e., PayPal) and decentralized (i.e., Coinkite) digital payment platforms to illustrate its applicability...

Real-time disruption handling at ASDEX upgrade

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zehetbauer, Th.; Pautasso, G.; Tichmann, C.; Egorov, S.; Lorenz, A.; Mertens, V.; Neu, G.; Raupp, G.; Treutterer, W.; Zasche, D.

2001-01-01

A neural network for prediction of disruptions has been developed at ASDEX Upgrade with the goal to mitigate or avoid these. The novel idea is to compute the remaining time-to-disruption to indicate the stability level of the discharge. The neural network has been specified, trained and then implemented within the real-time plasma control system. The current version of the system terminates the discharge with an impurity pellet when the computed time-to-disruption falls below a threshold of 80 ms. Routine operation shows that disruptions are recognized reliably. Vessel currents and forces are considerably reduced. The system will be enhanced to avoid disruptions with a soft landing initiated in time

Family Disruptions

Science.gov (United States)

... Spread the Word Shop AAP Find a Pediatrician Family Life Medical Home Family Dynamics Adoption & Foster Care ... Life Listen Español Text Size Email Print Share Family Disruptions Page Content Article Body No matter how ...

Stabilizing supply of artemisinin and artemisinin-based combination therapy in an era of wide-spread scale-up

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shretta Rima

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract The global demand for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT has grown sharply since its recommendation by the World Health Organization in 2002. However, a combination of financing and programmatic uncertainties, limited suppliers of finished products, information opacity across the different tiers in the supply chain, and widespread fluctuations in raw material prices have together contributed to a market fraught with demand and supply uncertainties and price volatility. Various short-term solutions have been deployed to alleviate supply shortages caused by these challenges; however, new mechanisms are required to build resilience into the supply chain. This review concludes that a mix of strategies is required to stabilize the artemisinin and ACT market. First, better and more effective pooling of demand and supply risks and better contracting to allow risk sharing among the stakeholders are needed. Physical and financial buffer stocks will enable better matching of demand and supply in the short and medium term. Secondly, physical buffers will allow stable supplies when there are procurement and supply management challenges while financial buffer funds will address issues around funding disruptions. Finally, in the medium to long term, significant investments in country level system strengthening will be required to minimize national level demand uncertainties. In addition a voluntary standard for extractors to ensure appropriate purchasing and sales practices as well as minimum quality and ethical standards could help stabilize the artemisinin market in the long term.

Stabilizing supply of artemisinin and artemisinin-based combination therapy in an era of wide-spread scale-up.

Science.gov (United States)

Shretta, Rima; Yadav, Prashant

2012-12-02

The global demand for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) has grown sharply since its recommendation by the World Health Organization in 2002. However, a combination of financing and programmatic uncertainties, limited suppliers of finished products, information opacity across the different tiers in the supply chain, and widespread fluctuations in raw material prices have together contributed to a market fraught with demand and supply uncertainties and price volatility. Various short-term solutions have been deployed to alleviate supply shortages caused by these challenges; however, new mechanisms are required to build resilience into the supply chain. This review concludes that a mix of strategies is required to stabilize the artemisinin and ACT market. First, better and more effective pooling of demand and supply risks and better contracting to allow risk sharing among the stakeholders are needed. Physical and financial buffer stocks will enable better matching of demand and supply in the short and medium term. Secondly, physical buffers will allow stable supplies when there are procurement and supply management challenges while financial buffer funds will address issues around funding disruptions. Finally, in the medium to long term, significant investments in country level system strengthening will be required to minimize national level demand uncertainties. In addition a voluntary standard for extractors to ensure appropriate purchasing and sales practices as well as minimum quality and ethical standards could help stabilize the artemisinin market in the long term.

Stabilizing supply of artemisinin and artemisinin-based combination therapy in an era of wide-spread scale-up

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

The global demand for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) has grown sharply since its recommendation by the World Health Organization in 2002. However, a combination of financing and programmatic uncertainties, limited suppliers of finished products, information opacity across the different tiers in the supply chain, and widespread fluctuations in raw material prices have together contributed to a market fraught with demand and supply uncertainties and price volatility. Various short-term solutions have been deployed to alleviate supply shortages caused by these challenges; however, new mechanisms are required to build resilience into the supply chain. This review concludes that a mix of strategies is required to stabilize the artemisinin and ACT market. First, better and more effective pooling of demand and supply risks and better contracting to allow risk sharing among the stakeholders are needed. Physical and financial buffer stocks will enable better matching of demand and supply in the short and medium term. Secondly, physical buffers will allow stable supplies when there are procurement and supply management challenges while financial buffer funds will address issues around funding disruptions. Finally, in the medium to long term, significant investments in country level system strengthening will be required to minimize national level demand uncertainties. In addition a voluntary standard for extractors to ensure appropriate purchasing and sales practices as well as minimum quality and ethical standards could help stabilize the artemisinin market in the long term. PMID:23198961

Disruption modeling in support of ITER

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bandyopadhyay, I.

2015-01-01

Plasma current disruptions and Vertical Displacement Events (VDEs) are one of the major concerns in any tokamak as they lead to large electromagnetic forces to tokamak first wall components and vacuum vessel. Their occurrence also means disruption to steady state operations of tokamaks. Thus future fusion reactors like ITER must ensure that disruptions and VDEs are minimized. However, since there is still finite probability of their occurrence, one must be able to characterize disruptions and VDEs and able to predict, for example, the plasma current quench time and halo current amplitude, which mainly determine the magnitude of the electromagnetic forces. There is a concerted effort globally to understand and predict plasma and halo current evolution during disruption in tokamaks through MHD simulations. Even though Disruption and VDEs are often 3D MHD perturbations in nature, presently they are mostly simulated using 2D axisymmetric MHD codes like the Tokamak Simulation Code (TSC) and DINA. These codes are also extensively benchmarked against experimental data in present day tokamaks to improve these models and their ability to predict these events in ITER. More detailed 3D models like M3D are only recently being developed, but they are yet to be benchmarked against experiments, as also they are massively computationally exhaustive

Disrupted Disclosure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Krause Hansen, Hans; Uldam, Julie

appearances become challenged through disruptive disclosures in mediaenvironments characterized by multiple levels of visibility, with companies both observing andbeing observed by civil society groups that criticize them; (c) why and how the mobilization aroundtransparency and ensuing practices...

MHD stability, operational limits and disruptions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-01-01

The present physics understandings of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability of tokamak plasmas, the threshold conditions for onset of MHD instability, and the resulting operational limits on attainable plasma pressure (beta limit) and density (density limit), and the consequences of plasma disruption and disruption related effects are reviewed and assessed in the context of their application to a future DT burning reactor prototype tokamak experiment such as ITER. The principal considerations covered within the MHD stability and beta limit assessments are (i) magnetostatic equilibrium, ideal MHD stability and the resulting ideal MHD beta limit; (ii) sawtooth oscillations and the coupling of sawtooth activity to other types of MHD instability; (iii) neoclassical island resistive tearing modes and the corresponding limits on beta and energy confinement; (iv) wall stabilization of ideal MHD instabilities and resistive wall instabilities; (v) mode locking effects of non-axisymmetric error fields; (vi) edge localized MHD instabilities (ELMs, etc.); and (vii) MHD instabilities and beta/pressure gradient limits in plasmas with actively modified current and magnetic shear profiles. The principal considerations covered within the density limit assessments are (i) empirical density limits; (ii) edge power balance/radiative density limits in ohmic and L-mode plasmas; and (iii) edge parameter related density limits in H-mode plasmas. The principal considerations covered in the disruption assessments are (i) disruption causes, frequency and MHD instability onset; (ii) disruption thermal and current quench characteristics; (iii) vertical instabilities (VDEs), both before and after disruption, and plasma and in-vessel halo currents; (iv) after disruption runaway electron formation, confinement and loss; (v) fast plasma shutdown (rapid externally initiated dissipation of plasma thermal and magnetic energies); (vi) means for disruption avoidance and disruption effect mitigation; and

Markets during world oil supply crises: an analysis of industry, consumer, and governmental response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Erfle, Stephen; Pound, John; Kalt, Joseph

1981-04-01

An analysis of the response of American markets to supply crises in world oil markets is presented. It addresses four main issues: the efficiency of the operation of American oil markets during oil supply crises; the problems of both economic efficiency and social equity which arise during the American adaptation process; the propriety of the Federal government's past policy responses to these problems; and the relationship between perceptions of the problems caused by world oil crises and the real economic natures of these problems. Specifically, Chapter 1 presents a theoretical discussion of the effects of a world supply disruption on the price level and supply availability of the world market oil to any consuming country including the US Chapter 2 provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the efficiency of the adaptations of US oil product markets to higher world oil prices. Chapter 3 examines the responses of various groups of US oil firms to the alterations observed in world markets, while Chapter 4 presents a theoretical explanation for the price-lagging behavior exhibited by firms in the US oil industry. Chapter 5 addresses the nature of both real and imagined oil market problems in the US during periods of world oil market transition. (MCW)

Operation in low edge safety factor regime and passive disruption avoidance due to stellarator rotational transform in the Compact Toroidal Hybrid

Science.gov (United States)

Pandya, M. D.; Ennis, D. A.; Hartwell, G. J.; Maurer, D. A.

2015-11-01

Low edge safety factor operation at a value less than two (q (a) = 1 /ttot (a) routine on the Compact Toroidal Hybrid device. Presently, the operational space of this current carrying stellarator extends down to q (a) = 1 . 2 without significant n = 1 kink mode activity after the initial plasma current rise of the discharge. The disruption dynamics of these low q (a) plasmas depend upon the fraction of rotational transform produced by external stellarator coils to that generated by the plasma current. We observe that when about 10% of the total rotational transform is supplied by the stellarator coils, low q (a) disruptions are passively suppressed and avoided even though q (a) disrupt, the instability precursors measured and implicated as the cause are internal tearing modes with poloidal, m, and toroidal, n, mode numbers of m / n = 3 / 2 and 4 / 3 observed by external magnetic sensors, and m / n = 1 / 1 activity observed by core soft x-ray emissivity measurements. Even though q (a) passes through and becomes much less than two, external n = 1 kink mode activity does not appear to play a significant role in the observed disruption phenomenology. This work is supported by US Department of Energy Grant No. DE-FG02-00ER54610.

Disruption studies on ASDEX upgrade

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pautasso, G.; Egorov, S.; Finken, K.H.

2003-01-01

Disruptions generate large thermal and mechanical stresses on the tokamak components and are occasionally responsible for damages to the machine. For a future reactor disruptions have a significant impact on the design since all loading conditions must be analyzed in accordance with stricter design criteria (due to safety or difficult maintenance). Therefore the uncertainties affecting the predicted stresses must be reduced as much as possible with a more comprehensive set of measurements and analyses in this generation of experimental machines, and avoidance/predictive methods must be developed further. Disruption studies on ASDEX Upgrade are focused on these subjects, namely on: (1) understanding the physical mechanisms leading to this phenomenon in order to learn to avoid it or to predict its occurrence and to mitigate its effects; (2) analyzing the effects of disruptions on the machine to determine the functional dependence of the thermal and mechanical loads upon the discharge parameters. This allows, firstly, to dimension or reinforce the machine components to withstand these loads and, secondly, to extrapolate them to tokamaks still in the design phase; (3) learning to mitigate the consequence of disruptions, i.e. thermal loads, mechanical forces and runaways with injection of impurity pellets or gas. This paper is focused on most recent results concerning points, i.e. on the analysis of the degree of asymmetry of the forces and on the use of impurity puff for mitigation

Disruptive technologies and transportation : final report.

Science.gov (United States)

2016-06-01

Disruptive technologies refer to innovations that, at first, may be considered unproven, lacking refinement, relatively unknown, or even impractical, but ultimately they supplant existing technologies and/or applications. In general, disruptive techn...

Emerging and Disruptive Technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Kricka, Larry J

2016-08-01

Several emerging or disruptive technologies can be identified that might, at some point in the future, displace established laboratory medicine technologies and practices. These include increased automation in the form of robots, 3-D printing, technology convergence (e.g., plug-in glucose meters for smart phones), new point-of-care technologies (e.g., contact lenses with sensors, digital and wireless enabled pregnancy tests) and testing locations (e.g., Retail Health Clinics, new at-home testing formats), new types of specimens (e.g., cell free DNA), big biology/data (e.g., million genome projects), and new regulations (e.g., for laboratory developed tests). In addition, there are many emerging technologies (e.g., planar arrays, mass spectrometry) that might find even broader application in the future and therefore also disrupt current practice. One interesting source of disruptive technology may prove to be the Qualcomm Tricorder XPrize, currently in its final stages.

Microalgal cell disruption via ultrasonic nozzle spraying.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, M; Yuan, W

2015-01-01

The objective of this study was to understand the effect of operating parameters, including ultrasound amplitude, spraying pressure, nozzle orifice diameter, and initial cell concentration on microalgal cell disruption and lipid extraction in an ultrasonic nozzle spraying system (UNSS). Two algal species including Scenedesmus dimorphus and Nannochloropsis oculata were evaluated. Experimental results demonstrated that the UNSS was effective in the disruption of microalgal cells indicated by significant changes in cell concentration and Nile red-stained lipid fluorescence density between all treatments and the control. It was found that increasing ultrasound amplitude generally enhanced cell disruption and lipid recovery although excessive input energy was not necessary for best results. The effect of spraying pressure and nozzle orifice diameter on cell disruption and lipid recovery was believed to be dependent on the competition between ultrasound-induced cavitation and spraying-generated shear forces. Optimal cell disruption was not always achieved at the highest spraying pressure or biggest nozzle orifice diameter; instead, they appeared at moderate levels depending on the algal strain and specific settings. Increasing initial algal cell concentration significantly reduced cell disruption efficiency. In all UNSS treatments, the effectiveness of cell disruption and lipid recovery was found to be dependent on the algal species treated.

A Fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS Framework for the Risk Assessment of Green Supply Chain Implementation in the Textile Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Nazam

2015-05-01

Full Text Available In the emerging supply chain environment, green supply chain risk management plays a significant role than ever. Risk is an inherent uncertainty and has tendency to disrupt the typical green supply chain management (GSCM operations and eventually reduce the success rate of industries. In order to mitigate the consequences, a fuzzy multi-criteria group decision making modeling (FMCGDM which could evaluate the potential risks in the context of (GSCM is needed from the industrial point of view. Therefore, this research proposes a combined fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP to calculate the weight of each risk criterion and sub-criterion and technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS methodology to rank and assess the risks associated with implementation of (GSCM practices under the fuzzy environment. The proposed fuzzy risk-oriented evaluation model is applied to a practical case of textile manufacturing industry. Finally, the proposed model helps the researchers and practitioners to understand the importance of conducting appropriate risk assessment when implementing green supply chain initiatives.

The Logic of Digital Platform Disruption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kazan, Erol; Tan, Chee-Wee; Lim, Eric T. K.

Digital platforms are disruptive IT artifacts, because they facilitate the quick release of innovative platform derivatives from third parties (e.g., apps). This study endeavours to unravel the disruptive potential, caused by distinct designs and configurations of digital platforms on market...... environments. We postulate that the disruptive potential of digital platforms is determined by the degree of alignment among the business, technology and platform profiles. Furthermore, we argue that the design and configuration of the aforementioned three elements dictates the extent to which open innovation...... is permitted. To shed light on the disruptive potential of digital platforms, we opted for payment platforms as our unit of analysis. Through interviews with experts and payment providers, we seek to gain an in-depth appreciation of how contemporary digital payment platforms are designed and configured...

Disruptive coloration in woodland camouflage: evaluation of camouflage effectiveness due to minor disruptive patches

Science.gov (United States)

Selj, Gorm K.; Heinrich, Daniela H.

2016-10-01

We present results from an observer based photosimulation study of generic camouflage patterns, intended for military uniforms, where three near-identical patterns have been compared. All the patterns were prepared with similar effective color, but were different in how the individual pattern patches were distributed throughout the target. We did this in order to test if high contrast (black) patches along the outline of the target would enhance the survivability when exposed to human observers. In the recent years it has been shown that disruptive coloration in the form of high contrast patches are capable of disturbing an observer by creating false edges of the target and consequently enhance target survivability. This effect has been shown in different forms in the Animal Kingdom, but not to the same extent in camouflaged military targets. The three patterns in this study were i) with no disruptive preference, ii) with a disruptive patch along the outline of the head and iii) with a disruptive patch on the outline of one of the shoulders. We used a high number of human observers to assess the three targets in 16 natural (woodland) backgrounds by showing images of one of the targets at the time on a high definition pc screen. We found that the two patterns that were thought to have a minor disruptive preference to the remaining pattern were more difficult to detect in some (though not all) of the 16 scenes and were also better in overall performance when all the scenes were accounted for.

Overvoltage protection for magnetic system during disruption in tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Ming; Li, Xiaolong; He, Yang; Zhang, Jun; Chen, Zhongyong; Yu, Kexun

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We investigate the way to limit the plasma disruption overvoltage by using the MOVs. • An overvoltage model of plasma disruption is introduced. • The overvoltage protection scheme has been verified by disruption experiments. • The overvoltage during plasma disruption can be limited to 330 V. - Abstract: During a plasma disruption the magnetic flux in the tokamak changes rapidly, which in most cases will cause high-voltage surges among the magnetic systems and may bring severe damage to the components if there is no overvoltage protection. This paper investigates the way to limit the plasma disruption overvoltage and absorb the energy with the use of metal oxide varistors (MOVs). An overvoltage model of plasma disruption is introduced which can be used for the simulation of plasma disruption and the analysis of the overvoltage. The effectiveness of the overvoltage protection system is validated with disruption experiments. It shows that by optimizing the varistors voltage, the overvoltage during plasma disruption can be limited to an ideal low value. Now the overvoltage protection system has been deployed in J-TEXT tokamak and serves well for daily experiments.

Disruptive School Peers and Student Outcomes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristoffersen, Jannie H. G.; Krægpøth, Morten; Nielsen, Helena Skyt

2015-01-01

This paper estimates how peers’ achievement gains are affected by the presence of potentially disruptive and emotionally sensitive children in the school-cohort. We exploit that some children move between schools and thus generate variation in peer composition in the receiving school-cohort. We...... identify three groups of potentially disruptive and emotionally sensitive children from detailed Danish register data: children with divorced parents, children with parents convicted of crime, and children with a psychiatric diagnosis. We find that adding potentially disruptive children lowers the academic...

Disruptive School Peers and Student Outcomes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristoffersen, Jannie H. Grøne; Krægpøth, Morten; Nielsen, Helena Skyt

This paper estimates how peers’ achievement gains are affected by the presence of potentially disruptive and emotionally sensitive children in the school-cohort. We exploit that some children move between schools and thus generate variation in peer composition in the receiving school-cohort. We...... identify three groups of potentially disruptive and emotionally sensitive children from detailed Danish register data: children with divorced parents, children with parents convicted of crime, and children with a psychiatric diagnosis. We find that adding potentially disruptive children lowers the academic...

Disruptive School Peers and Student Outcomes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristoffersen, Jannie H. G.; Krægpøth, Morten Visby; Skyt Nielsen, Helena

This paper estimates how peers’ achievement gains are affected by the presence of potentially disruptive and emotionally sensitive children in the school-cohort. We exploit that some children move between schools and thus generate variation in peer composition in the receiving schoolcohort. We...... identify three groups of potentially disruptive and emotionally sensitive children from detailed Danish register data: children with divorced parents, children with parents convicted of crime, and children with a psychiatric diagnosis. We find that adding potentially disruptive children lowers the academic...

Phenomenology of high density disruptions in the TFTR tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fredrickson, E.D.; McGuire, K.M.; Bell, M.G.

1993-01-01

Studies of high density disruptions on TFTR, including a comparison of minor and major disruptions at high density, provide important new information regarding the nature of the disruption mechanism. Further, for the first time, an (m,n)=(1,1) 'cold bubble' precursor to high density disruptions has been experimentally observed in the electron temperature profile. The precursor to major disruptions resembles the 'vacuum bubble' model of disruptions first proposed by B.B. Kadomtsev and O.P. Pogutse (Sov. Phys. - JETP 38 (1974) 283). (author). Letter-to-the-editor. 25 refs, 3 figs

Planning for avian flu disruptions on global operations: a DMAIC case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Sameer

2012-01-01

The author aims to assess the spread of avian flu, its impact on businesses operating in the USA and overseas, and the measures required for corporate preparedness. Six Sigma DMAIC process is used to analyze avian flu's impact and how an epidemic could affect large US business operations worldwide. Wal-Mart and Dell Computers were chosen as one specializes in retail and the other manufacturing. The study identifies avian flu pandemic risks including failure modes on Wal-Mart and Dell Computers global operations. It reveals the factors that reinforce avian-flu pandemic's negative impact on company global supply chains. It also uncovers factors that balance avian-flu pandemic's impact on their global supply chains. Avian flu and its irregularity affect the research outcomes because its spread could fluctuate based on so many factors that could come into play. Further, the potential cost to manufacturers and other supply chain partners is relatively unknown. As a relatively new phenomenon, quantitative data were not available to determine immediate costs. In this decade, the avian influenza H5N1 virus has killed millions of poultry in Asia, Europe and Africa. This flu strain can infect and kill humans who come into contact with this virus. An avian influenza H5N1 outbreak could lead to a devastating effect on global food supply, business services and business operations. The study provides guidance on what global business operation managers can do to prepare for such events, as well as how avian flu progression to a pandemic can disrupt such operations. This study raises awareness about avian flu's impact on businesses and humans and also highlights the need to create contingency plans for corporate preparedness to avoid incurring losses.

Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration Supply Chain Integration

CERN Document Server

Lettice, Fiona; Durowoju, Olatunde

2012-01-01

Effective supply chain integration, and the tight co-ordination it creates, is an essential pre-requisite for successful supply chain management.  Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration is a practical reference on recent research in the area of supply chain integration focusing on distributed decision-making problems. Recent applications of various decision-making tools for integrating supply chains are covered including chapters focusing on: •Supplier selection, pricing strategy and inventory decisions in multi-level supply chains, •RFID-enabled distributed decision-making, •Operational risk issues and time-critical decision-making for sensitive logistics nodes, Modelling end to end processes to improve supply chain integration, and •Integrated systems to improve service delivery and optimize resource use. Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration provides an insight into the tools and methodologies of this field with support from real-life case studies demonstrating successful application ...

Disrupting reconsolidation: pharmacological and behavioral manipulations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Soeter, M.; Kindt, M.

2011-01-01

We previously demonstrated that disrupting reconsolidation by pharmacological manipulations "deleted" the emotional expression of a fear memory in humans. If we are to target reconsolidation in patients with anxiety disorders, the disruption of reconsolidation should produce content-limited

Endocrine Disrupting Contaminants—Beyond the Dogma

Science.gov (United States)

Guillette, Louis J.

2006-01-01

Descriptions of endocrine disruption have largely been associated with wildlife and driven by observations documenting estrogenic, androgenic, antiandrogenic, and antithyroid actions. These actions, in response to exposure to ecologically relevant concentrations of various environmental contaminants, have now been established in numerous vertebrate species. However, many potential mechanisms and endocrine actions have not been studied. For example, the DDT [1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethane] metabolite, p,p′-DDE [1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethylene] is known to disrupt prostaglandin synthesis in the uterus of birds, providing part of the explanation for DDT-induced egg shell thinning. Few studies have examined prostaglandin synthesis as a target for endocrine disruption, yet these hormones are active in reproduction, immune responses, and cardiovascular physiology. Future studies must broaden the basic science approach to endocrine disruption, thereby expanding the mechanisms and endocrine end points examined. This goal should be accomplished even if the primary influence and funding continue to emphasize a narrower approach based on regulatory needs. Without this broader approach, research into endocrine disruption will become dominated by a narrow dogma, focusing on a few end points and mechanisms. PMID:16818240

Integration of environmental aspects in modelling and optimisation of water supply chains.

Science.gov (United States)

Koleva, Mariya N; Calderón, Andrés J; Zhang, Di; Styan, Craig A; Papageorgiou, Lazaros G

2018-04-26

Climate change becomes increasingly more relevant in the context of water systems planning. Tools are necessary to provide the most economic investment option considering the reliability of the infrastructure from technical and environmental perspectives. Accordingly, in this work, an optimisation approach, formulated as a spatially-explicit multi-period Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model, is proposed for the design of water supply chains at regional and national scales. The optimisation framework encompasses decisions such as installation of new purification plants, capacity expansion, and raw water trading schemes. The objective is to minimise the total cost incurring from capital and operating expenditures. Assessment of available resources for withdrawal is performed based on hydrological balances, governmental rules and sustainable limits. In the light of the increasing importance of reliability of water supply, a second objective, seeking to maximise the reliability of the supply chains, is introduced. The epsilon-constraint method is used as a solution procedure for the multi-objective formulation. Nash bargaining approach is applied to investigate the fair trade-offs between the two objectives and find the Pareto optimality. The models' capability is addressed through a case study based on Australia. The impact of variability in key input parameters is tackled through the implementation of a rigorous global sensitivity analysis (GSA). The findings suggest that variations in water demand can be more disruptive for the water supply chain than scenarios in which rainfalls are reduced. The frameworks can facilitate governmental multi-aspect decision making processes for the adequate and strategic investments of regional water supply infrastructure. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Disruption Management in Passenger Railway Transportation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jespersen-Groth, Julie; Potthoff, Daniel; Clausen, Jens

This paper deals with disruption management in passenger railway transportation. In the disruption management process, many actors belonging to different organizations play a role. In this paper we therefore describe the process itself and the roles of the different actors. Furthermore, we discuss...... the three main subproblems in railway disruption management: timetable adjustment, and rolling stock and crew re-scheduling. Next to a general description of these problems, we give an overview of the existing literature and we present some details of the specific situations at DSB S-tog and NS....... These are the railway operators in the suburban area of Copenhagen, Denmark, and on the main railway lines in the Netherlands, respectively. Since not much research has been carried out yet on Operations Research models for disruption management in the railway context, models and techniques that have been developed...

Visual in-pile fuel disruption experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cano, G.L.; Ostensen, R.W.; Young, M.F.

1978-01-01

In a loss-of-flow (LOF) accident in an LMFBR, the mode of disruption of fuel may determine the probability of a subsequent energetic excursion. To investigate these phenomena, in-pile disruption of fission-heated irradiated fuel pellets was recorded by high speed cinematography. Instead of fuel frothing or dust-cloud breakup (as used in the SAS code) massive and very rapid fuel swelling, not predicted by analytical models, occurred. These tests support massive fuel swelling as the initial mode of fuel disruption in a LOF accident. (author)

A case for change: disruption in academic medicine.

Science.gov (United States)

Kahn, Marc J; Maurer, Ralph; Wartman, Steven A; Sachs, Benjamin P

2014-09-01

Disruptive technologies allow less expensive and more efficient processes to eventually dominate a market sector. The academic health center's tripartite mission of education, clinical care, and research is threatened by decreasing revenues and increasing expenses and is, as a result, ripe for disruption. The authors describe current disruptive technologies that threaten traditional operations at academic health centers and provide a prescription not only to survive, but also to prosper, in the face of disruptive forces.

When Disruptive Approaches Meet Disruptive Technologies: Learning at a Distance.

Science.gov (United States)

Gibson, Chere Campbell

2000-01-01

Reviews research on constructivism in learning and selection of learning strategies. Suggests linking constructivism with instructional technologies for continuing medical education in order to "disrupt" reactive, habitual ways of learning and encourage active engagement. (SK)

Application of the Disruption Predictor Feature Developer to developing a machine-portable disruption predictor

Science.gov (United States)

Parsons, Matthew; Tang, William; Feibush, Eliot

2016-10-01

Plasma disruptions pose a major threat to the operation of tokamaks which confine a large amount of stored energy. In order to effectively mitigate this damage it is necessary to predict an oncoming disruption with sufficient warning time to take mitigative action. Machine learning approaches to this problem have shown promise but require further developments to address (1) the need for machine-portable predictors and (2) the availability of multi-dimensional signal inputs. Here we demonstrate progress in these two areas by applying the Disruption Predictor Feature Developer to data from JET and NSTX, and discuss topics of focus for ongoing work in support of ITER. The author is also supported under the Fulbright U.S. Student Program as a graduate student in the department of Nuclear, Plasma and Radiological Engineering at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

Port supply chain integration : analyzing biofuel supply chains

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stevens, Leonie C. E.; Vis, Iris F. A.

2016-01-01

This paper focuses on port supply chain integration to strengthen operational and business performance. We provide a structured and comprehensive method to enable port supply chain integration and demonstrate its applicability to the biofuel supply chain. We define the value proposition, role,

Mechanical algal disruption for efficient biodiesel extraction

Science.gov (United States)

Krehbiel, Joel David

Biodiesel from algae provides several benefits over current biodiesel feedstocks, but the energy requirements of processing algae into a useable fuel are currently so high as to be prohibitive. One route to improving this is via disruption of the cells prior to lipid extraction, which can significantly increase energy recovery. Unfortunately, several obvious disruption techniques require more energy than can be gained. This dissertation examines the use of microbubbles to improve mechanical disruption of algal cells using experimental, theoretical, and computational methods. New laboratory experiments show that effective ultrasonic disruption of algae is achieved by adding microbubbles to an algal solution. The configuration studied flows the solution through a tube and insonifies a small section with a high-pressure ultrasound wave. Previous biomedical research has shown effective cell membrane damage on animal cells with similar methods, but the present research is the first to extend such study to algal cells. Results indicate that disruption increases with peak negative pressure between 1.90 and 3.07 MPa and with microbubble concentration up to 12.5 x 107 bubbles/ml. Energy estimates of this process suggest that it requires only one-fourth the currently most-efficient laboratory-scale disruption process. Estimates of the radius near each bubble that causes disruption (i.e. the disruption radius) suggest that it increases with peak negative pressure and is near 9--20 microm for all cases tested. It is anticipated that these procedures can be designed for better efficiency and efficacy, which will be facilitated by identifying the root mechanisms of the bubble-induced disruption. We therefore examine whether bubble expansion alone creates sufficient cell deformation for cell rupture. The spherically-symmetric Marmottant model for bubble dynamics allows estimation of the flow regime under experimental conditions. Bubble expansion is modeled as a point source of

Gene disruption in Salmonella typhimurim by modified λ Red disruption system.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahani Azari, A; Zahraei Salehi, T; Nayeri Fasaei, B; Alebouyeh, M

2015-01-01

There are many techniques to knock out directed genes in bacteria, some of which have been described in Salmonella species. In this study, a combination of SOEing PCR method and the λ Red disruption system were used to disrupt phoP gene in wild type and standard strains of Salmonella typhimurium. Three standards PCR and one fusion PCR reactions were performed to construct a linear DNA including upstream and downstream of phoP gene and Kanamycin cassette. As a template plasmid, we used pKD4 which carries kanamycin gene flanked by FRT (FLP recognition target) sites. The resulting construct was electroporated into prepared competent cells of S. typhimurium. The transformants colonies related to the standard strain appeared on the LB-Km-agar plates after incubation, but there was no colony on LB-Km-agar plates corresponding to the wild type strain. The failure in transformation of the wild type strain may be because of inflexibility of the λ Red disruption system in this strain or its unique restriction-modification system. However, by this construct we are able to generate phoP mutant in many of the Salmonella species due to high homology of the phoP gene which exists in different species.

Disruption Management in Passenger Railway Transportation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Groth, Julie Jespersen; Potthoff, Daniel; Clausen, Jens

2009-01-01

This paper deals with disruption management in passenger railway transportation. In the disruption management process, many actors belonging to different organizations play a role. In this paper we therefore describe the process itself and the roles of the different actors. Furthermore, we discuss...

Structured Literature Review of disruptive innovation theory within the digital domain

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vesti, Helle; Nielsen, Christian; Rosenstand, Claus Andreas Foss

2017-01-01

The area of interest is disruption is the digital domain. The research questions are: How has the disruption and digital disruption literature developed over time? What is the research focus into disruption regarding the digital domain and how has this changed over time? Which methods are being...... utilized in research regarding disruption and digital disruption? Where are the key contributors to disruption in general and in digital disruption? Is there a future for digital disruption research? The method is a Structured Literature Review (SLR). The contribution is the results of an analysis of 95...... publications within the field of disruption in the digital domain and disruptive innovation theory in general. Works of twelve practitioners and 83 academics are investigated....

Disruption mitigation studies in DIII-D

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, P.L.; Kellman, A.G.; Evans, T.E.

1999-01-01

Data on the discharge behavior, thermal loads, halo currents, and runaway electrons have been obtained in disruptions on the DIII-D tokamak. These experiments have also evaluated techniques to mitigate the disruptions while minimizing runaway electron production. Experiments injecting cryogenic impurity killer pellets of neon and argon and massive amounts of helium gas have successfully reduced these disruption effects. The halo current generation, scaling, and mitigation are understood and are in good agreement with predictions of a semianalytic model. Results from killer pellet injection have been used to benchmark theoretical models of the pellet ablation and energy loss. Runaway electrons are often generated by the pellets and new runaway generation mechanisms, modifications of the standard Dreicer process, have been found to explain the runaways. Experiments with the massive helium gas puff have also effectively mitigated disruptions without the formation of runaway electrons that can occur with killer pellets

Longitudinal association between marital disruption and child BMI and obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Arkes, Jeremy

2012-08-01

This research examines whether family disruptions (i.e., divorces and separation) contribute to children's weight problems. The sample consists of 7,299 observations for 2,333 children, aged 5-14, over the 1986-2006 period, from a US representative sample from the Child and Young Adult Survey accompanying the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY). The study uses individual-fixed-effects models in a longitudinal framework to compare children's BMI and weight problems before and after a disruption. Furthermore, besides doing a before-after comparison for children, the study also estimates the effects at various periods relative to the disruption in order to examine whether children are affected before the disruption and whether any effects change as time passes from the disruption, as some effects may be temporary or slow to develop. Despite having a larger sample than the previous studies, the results provide no evidence that, on average, children's BMI and BMI percentile scores (measured with continuous outcomes) are affected before the disruption, after the disruption, and as time passes from the disruption, relative to a baseline period a few years before the disruption. However, children experiencing a family disruption do have an increased risk of obesity (having a BMI percentile score of 95 or higher) in the two years leading up to the disruption as well as after the disruption, and as time passes from the disruption.

Sideways wall force produced during tokamak disruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Strauss, H.; Paccagnella, R.; Breslau, J.; Sugiyama, L.; Jardin, S.

2013-07-01

A critical issue for ITER is to evaluate the forces produced on the surrounding conducting structures during plasma disruptions. We calculate the non-axisymmetric ‘sideways’ wall force Fx, produced in disruptions. Simulations were carried out of disruptions produced by destabilization of n = 1 modes by a vertical displacement event (VDE). The force depends strongly on γτwall, where γ is the mode growth rate and τwall is the wall penetration time, and is largest for γτwall = constant, which depends on initial conditions. Simulations of disruptions caused by a model of massive gas injection were also performed. It was found that the wall force increases approximately offset linearly with the displacement from the magnetic axis produced by a VDE. These results are also obtained with an analytical model. Disruptions are accompanied by toroidal variation of the plasma current Iφ. This is caused by toroidal variation of the halo current, as verified computationally and analytically.

Fuel disruption mechanisms determined in-pile in the ACRR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wright, S.A.; Fischer, E.A.

1984-09-01

Over thirty in-pile experiments were performed to investigate fuel disruption behavior for LMFBR loss of flow (LOF) accidents. These experiments reproduced the heating transients for a variety of accidents ranging from slow LOF accidents to rapid LOF-driven-TOP accidents. In all experiments the timing and mode of the fuel disruption were observed with a high speed camera, enabling detailed comparisons with a fuel pin code, SANDPIN. This code transient intra- and inter-granular fission gas behavior to predict the macroscopic fuel behavior, such as fission gas induced swelling and frothing, cracking and breakup of solid fuel, and fuel vapor pressure driven dispersal. This report reviews the different modes of fuel disruption as seen in the experiments and then describes the mechanism responsible for the disruption. An analysis is presented that describes a set of conditions specifying the mode of fuel disruption and the heating conditions required to produce the disruption. The heating conditions are described in terms of heating rate (K/s), temperature gradient, and fuel temperature. A fuel disruption map is presented which plots heating rate as a function of fuel temperature to illustrate the different criteria for disruption. Although this approach to describing fuel disruption oversimplifies the fission gas processes modeled by SANDPIN, it does illustrate the criteria used to determine which fuel disruption mechanism is dominant and on what major fission gas parameters it depends

Criteria for initiation of tokamak disruptions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hopcraft, K.I.; Turner, M.F.

1986-01-01

The process by which a tokamak plasma evolves from an equilibrium state containing a saturated magnetic island to one which is disruptively unstable is discussed and illustrated by numerical simulation of a resistive magnetoplasma. Those elements which are required to initiate a disruption are delineated

Erosion products in disruption simulation experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Safronov, V.; Arkhipov, N.; Bakhtin, V.; Barsuk, V.; Kurkin, S.; Mironova, E.; Toporkov, D.; Vasenin, S.; Zhitlukhin, A.; Arkhipov, I.; Werle, H.; Wuerz, H.

1998-01-01

Erosion of divertor materials under tokamak disruption event presents a serious problem of ITER technology. Erosion restricts the divertor lifetime and leads to production of redeposited layers of the material retaining large amount of tritium, which is a major safety issue for future fusion reactor. Since ITER disruptive heat loads are not achievable in existing tokamaks, material erosion is studied in special simulation experiments. Till now the simulation experiments have focused mainly on investigation of shielding effect and measurement of erosion rate. In the present work the properties of eroded and redeposited graphite are studied under condition typical for hard ITER disruption. (author)

Effect of music on mealtime disruptions.

Science.gov (United States)

Hooper, Jeff; Carson, Derek; Lindsay, Bill

People with learning disabilities can disrupt mealtimes with non-cooperative, aggressive and self-injurious behaviours that challenge other people to tolerate and manage them. These behaviours appear to arise because the proximity of other people, and the heightened activity and noise of a dining room, causes anxiety and agitation. To examine how delivering calming background music via headphones affected anxiety-driven behaviours that disrupted mealtimes. A sample of 30 adults with mild, moderate or severe learning disabilities were videotaped during mealtimes on two consecutive days. On the first day, half the group ate without any calming music while the other half sat opposite them wearing earphones and listening to calming music. On the second day, the non-music and music groups swapped around. Of the participants who tolerated the earphones, only three showed disruptive behaviour; all three had been sitting at the table waiting for their food. With so few examples, meaningful inferential analysis was not possible. However, there were signs that calming music had a positive effect on disruptive mealtime behaviours. It eliminated physical harm, complaining and verbal repetition in one person, and stopped another from shouting/swearing. It also reduced the incidence of shouting/swearing, restlessness and vocalising. Calming music and reduced waiting at tables for food may reduce disruptive behaviours.

Aggregate formation affects ultrasonic disruption of microalgal cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wei; Lee, Duu-Jong; Lai, Juin-Yih

2015-12-01

Ultrasonication is a cell disruption process of low energy efficiency. This study dosed K(+), Ca(2+) and Al(3+) to Chlorella vulgaris cultured in Bold's Basal Medium at 25°C and measured the degree of cell disruption under ultrasonication. Adding these metal ions yielded less negatively charged surfaces of cells, while with the latter two ions large and compact cell aggregates were formed. The degree of cell disruption followed: control=K(+)>Ca(2+)>Al(3+) samples. Surface charges of cells and microbubbles have minimal effects on the microbubble number in the proximity of the microalgal cells. Conversely, cell aggregates with large size and compact interior resist cell disruption under ultrasonication. Staining tests revealed high diffusional resistance of stains over the aggregate interior. Microbubbles may not be effective generated and collapsed inside the compact aggregates, hence leading to low cell disruption efficiencies. Effective coagulation/flocculation in cell harvesting may lead to adverse effect on subsequent cell disruption efficiency. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Management of posterior urethral disruption injuries.

Science.gov (United States)

Myers, Jeremy B; McAninch, Jack W

2009-03-01

Posterior urethral disruption is a traumatic injury to the male urethra, which most often results from pelvic fracture. After trauma, the distraction defect between the two ends of the urethra often scars and becomes fibrotic, blocking the urethra and bladder emptying. Increasing evidence suggests that many posterior urethral disruptions occur at the junction between the membranous urethra and the bulbar urethra, which is distal to the rhabdosphincter. In the acute setting, when a posterior urethral disruption is suspected, retrograde urethrography should be performed. Posterior urethral disruptions can be managed acutely by realignment of the urethra over a urethral catheter or by placement of a suprapubic catheter for bladder drainage only. Once fibrosis has stabilized, the patient can undergo posterior urethroplasty. In most cases, this procedure can be performed via a perineal approach in a single-stage surgery. The results of this single-stage perineal urethroplasty are excellent, and a patent urethra can be re-established in the majority of men who undergo surgery.

Time scales in tidal disruption events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krolik J.

2012-12-01

Full Text Available We explore the temporal structure of tidal disruption events pointing out the corresponding transitions in the lightcurves of the thermal accretion disk and of the jet emerging from such events. The hydrodynamic time scale of the disrupted star is the minimal time scale of building up the accretion disk and the jet and it sets a limit on the rise time. This suggest that Swift J1644+57, that shows several flares with a rise time as short as a few hundred seconds could not have arisen from a tidal disruption of a main sequence star whose hydrodynamic time is a few hours. The disrupted object must have been a white dwarf. A second important time scale is the Eddington time in which the accretion rate changes form super to sub Eddington. It is possible that such a transition was observed in the light curve of Swift J2058+05. If correct this provides interesting constraints on the parameters of the system.

Runaway electron generation in tokamak disruptions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helander, P.; Andersson, F.; Fueloep, T.; Smith, H.; Anderson, D.; Lisak, M.; Eriksson, L.-G.

2005-01-01

The time evolution of the plasma current during a tokamak disruption is calculated by solving the equations for runaway electron production simultaneously with the induction equation for the toroidal electric field. The resistive diffusion time in a post-disruption plasma is typically comparable to the runaway avalanche growth time. Accordingly, the toroidal electric field induced after the thermal quench of a disruption diffuses radially through the plasma at the same time as it accelerates runaway electrons, which in turn back-react on the electric field. When these processes are accounted for in a self-consistent way, it is found that (1) the efficiency and time scale of runaway generation agrees with JET experiments; (2) the runaway current profile typically becomes more peaked than the pre-disruption current profile; and (3) can easily become radially filamented. It is also shown that higher runaway electron generation is expected if the thermal quench is sufficiently fast. (author)

DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES: AN EXPANDED VIEW

OpenAIRE

JAMES M. UTTERBACK; HAPPY J. ACEE

2005-01-01

The term "disruptive technology" as coined by Christensen (1997, The Innovator's Dilemma; How New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail. Harvard Business School Press) refers to a new technology having lower cost and performance measured by traditional criteria, but having higher ancillary performance. Christensen finds that disruptive technologies may enter and expand emerging market niches, improving with time and ultimately attacking established products in their traditional markets. This...

The Supply of Medical Radioisotopes. 2015 Medical Isotope Supply Review: 99Mo/99mTc Market Demand and Production Capacity Projection 2015-2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charlton, Kevin; )

2015-08-01

Medical diagnostic imaging techniques using technetium-99m ( 99m Tc) account for approximately 80% of all nuclear medicine procedures, representing 30-40 million examinations Worldwide every year. Disruptions in the supply chain of these medical isotopes - which have half-lives of 66 hours for molybdenum-99 ( 99 Mo) and only 6 hours for 99m Tc, and thus must be produced continuously - can lead to cancellations or delays in important medical testing services. Unfortunately, supply reliability has been challenged over the past decade due to unexpected shutdowns and extended refurbishment periods at some of the mostly ageing, 99 Mo-producing research reactors and processing facilities. These shutdowns have at times created conditions for extended global supply shortages (e.g. 2009-2010). At the request of its member countries, the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) became involved in global efforts to ensure a secure supply of 99 Mo/ 99m Tc. Since June 2009, the NEA and its High-level Group on the Security of Supply of Medical Radioisotopes (HLG-MR) have examined the causes of supply shortages and developed a policy approach, including principles and supporting recommendations to address those causes. The NEA has also reviewed the global 99 Mo supply situation periodically, using the most up-to-date data available from supply chain participants, to highlight periods of potential reduced supply and to underscore the case for implementing the HLG-MR policy approach in a timely and globally consistent manner. In 2012, the NEA released a M o supply and demand forecast up to 2030, identifying periods of potential low supply relative to demand. That 2012 forecast was updated with a report 'Medical Isotope Supply in the Future: Production Capacity and Demand Forecast for the 99 Mo/ 99m Tc Market 2015-2020' (NEA, 2014) in 2014 that focused on the much shorter 2015-2020 period. This report updates the 2014 report, and continues to focus on the potentially critical 2015

The Climate Disruption Challenge for Water Security in a Growing World

Science.gov (United States)

Paxton, L. J.; Nix, M.; Ihde, A.; MacDonald, L. H.; Parker, C.; Schaefer, R. K.; Weiss, M.; Babin, S. M.; Swartz, W. H.; Schloman, J.

2012-12-01

Climate disruption, the increasingly large and erratic departures of weather and climate from the benign conditions of the last one hundred years, is the greatest challenge to the long-term stability of world governments. Population growth, food and water security, energy supplies, and economic factors are, to some degree, within the control of governance and policy and all of these are impacted by climate disruption. Climate disruption, on the other hand, is not amenable to direct modification on the short timescales that commonly dictate governmental policy and human response. Global average temperatures will continue to increase even if there were immediate, profound changes in emission scenarios. Policy makers are faced with the very practical and immediate problem of determining what can one reasonably do to ameliorate the impact of climate disruption. The issue from a policy viewpoint is: how does one make effective policy when faced with a situation in which there are varied viewpoints in competition. How does one establish a consensus for action? What information "speaks" to policy makers? Water security is one such issue and provides an important, immediate, and tangible device to use when we examine how one can determine what policies can be effectively pursued. The Global Assimilation of Information for Action (GAIA) project creates a support environment to address the impact of climate disruption on global, national, regional, and/or local interests. The basic research community is concerned with the scientific aspects of predicting climate change in terms of environmental parameters such as rainfall, temperature and humidity while decision makers must deal with planning for a world that may be very different from the one we have grown accustomed to. Decision makers must deal with the long-term impacts on public health, agriculture, economic productivity, security, extreme weather, etc in an environment that has come to focus on short-term issues. To

Disrupted Sleep : From Molecules to Cognition

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Someren, Eus J W; Cirelli, Chiara; Dijk, Derk-Jan; Van Cauter, Eve; Schwartz, Sophie; Chee, Michael W L

2015-01-01

UNLABELLED: Although the functions of sleep remain to be fully elucidated, it is clear that there are far-reaching effects of its disruption, whether by curtailment for a single night, by a few hours each night over a long period, or by disruption in sleep continuity. Epidemiological and

Practice Oriented Algorithmic Disruption Management in Passenger Railways

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J.C. Wagenaar (Joris)

2016-01-01

markdownabstractHow to deal with a disruption is a question railway companies face on a daily basis. This thesis focusses on the subject how to handle a disruption such that the passenger service is upheld as much as possible. The current mathematical models for disruption management can not yet be

Disruption characteristics in PDX with limiter and divertor discharges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Couture, P.; McGuire, K.

1986-09-01

A comparison has been made between the characteristics of disruptions with limiter and divertor configurations in PDX. A large data base on disruptions has been collected over four years of machine operation, and a total of 15,000 discharges are contained in the data file. It was found that divertor discharges have less disruptions during ramp up and flattop of the plasma current. However, for divertor discharges a large number of fast, low current disruptions take place during the current ramp down. These disruptions are probably caused by the deformation of the plasma shape

Managing in-country transportation risks in humanitarian supply chains by logistics service providers: Insights from the 2015 Nepal earthquake

OpenAIRE

Baharmand, Hossein; Comes, Tina; Lauras, Matthieu

2017-01-01

Humanitarian supply chains (HSCs) play a central role in effective and efficient disaster relief operations. Transportation has a critical share in HSCs and managing its risks helps to avoid further disruptions in relief operations. However, there is no common approach to or culture of risk management that its applicability has been studied through recent cases. This paper incorporates an empirical research design and makes a threefold contribution: first, it identifies in-country transportat...

Disruption mitigation on Tore Supra

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martin, G.; Sourd, F.; Saint-Laurent, F.; Bucalossi, J.; Eriksson, L.G.

2004-01-01

During disruptions, the plasma energy is lost on the first wall within 1 ms, forces up to hundred tons are applied to the structures and kA of electrons are accelerated up to 50 MeV (runaway electrons). Already sources of concern in present day tokamaks, extrapolation to ITER shows the necessity of mitigation procedures, to avoid serious damages to in-vessel components. Massive gas injection was proposed, and encouraging tests have been done on Textor and DIII-D. Similar experiments where performed on Tore Supra, with the goal to validate their effect on runaway electrons, observed during the majority of disruptions. 0.1 mole of helium was injected within 5 ms in ohmic plasmas, up to 1.2 MA, either stable, or in a pre-disruptive phase (argon puffing). Beneficial effects where obtained: reduction of the current fall rate and eddy currents, total disappearance of runaway electrons and easy recovery for the next pulse, without noticeable helium pollution of following plasmas. Analysis of the 4 ms period between injection and disruption indicates that to reach these goals, one need to inject enough helium to keep it only partially ionised. It corresponds to 0.1 g for Tore Supra, and extrapolate to hundreds of grams for ITER. (authors)

Disruption mitigation on Tore Supra

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martin, G.; Sourd, F.; Saint-Laurent, F.; Bucalossi, J.; Eriksson, L.G.

2005-01-01

During disruptions, the plasma energy is lost on the first wall within 1 ms, forces up to hundred tons are applied to the structures and kA of electrons are accelerated up to 50 MeV (runaway electrons). Already sources of concern in present day tokamaks, extrapolation to ITER shows the necessity of mitigation procedures, to avoid serious damages to in-vessel components. Massive gas injection was proposed, and encouraging tests have been done on Textor and DIII-D. Similar experiments where performed on Tore Supra, with the goal to validate their effect on runaway electrons, observed during the majority of disruptions. 0.1 mole of helium was injected within 5 ms in ohmic plasmas, up to 1.2 MA, either stable, or in a pre-disruptive phase (argon puffing). Beneficial effects where obtained: reduction of the current fall rate and eddy currents, total disappearance of runaway electrons and easy recovery for the next pulse, without noticeable helium pollution of following plasmas. Analysis of the 4 ms period between injection and disruption indicates that to reach these goals, one need to inject enough helium to keep it only partially ionised. It correspond to 0.1 g for Tore Supra, and extrapolate to hundred's of grams for ITER. (author)

Abnormal energy deposition on the wall through plasma disruptions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamazaki, K.; Schmidt, G.L.

1984-07-01

The dissipation of plasma kinetic and magnetic energy during sawtooth oscillstions and disruptions in tokamaks is analyzed using Kadomtsev's disruption model and the plasma-circuit equations. New simple scalings of several characteristic times are obtained for sawteeth and for thermal and magnetic energy quenches of disruptions. The abnormal energy deposition on the wall during major or minor disruptions, estimated from this analysis, is compared with bolometric measurements in the PDX tokamak. Especially, magnetic energy dissipation during current termination period is shown to be reduced by the strong coupling of the plasma current with external circuits. These analyses are found to be useful to predict the phenomenological behavior of plasma disruptions in large future tokamaks, and to estimate abnormal heat deposition on the wall during plasma disruptions. (author)

Disruptions and Their Mitigation in TEXTOR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finken, K.H.; Jaspers, R.; Kraemer-Flecken, A.; Savtchkov, A.; Lehnen, M.; Waidmann, G.

2005-01-01

Disruptions remain a major concern for tokamak devices, particularly for large machines. The critical issues are the induced (halo) currents and the resulting forces, the excessive heating of exposed surfaces by the instantaneous power release, and the possible occurrence of highly energetic runaway electrons. The key topics of the investigations on TEXTOR in the recent years concerned (a) the power deposition pattern recorded by a fast infrared scanner, (b) the runaway generation measured by synchrotron radiation in the infrared spectral region, (c) method development for 'healing' discharges that are going to disrupt, and (d) massive gas puffing for mitigating the adverse effects of disruptions

Disrupted Sleep: From Molecules to Cognition

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Someren, E.J.; Cirelli, C.; Dijk, D.J.; Van Cauter, E.; Schwartz, S.; Chee, M.W.L.

2015-01-01

Although the functions of sleep remain to be fully elucidated, it is clear that there are far-reaching effects of its disruption, whether by curtailment for a single night, by a few hours each night over a long period, or by disruption in sleep continuity. Epidemiological and experimental studies of

Interpreting Disruption Prediction Models to Improve Plasma Control

Science.gov (United States)

Parsons, Matthew

2017-10-01

In order for the tokamak to be a feasible design for a fusion reactor, it is necessary to minimize damage to the machine caused by plasma disruptions. Accurately predicting disruptions is a critical capability for triggering any mitigative actions, and a modest amount of attention has been given to efforts that employ machine learning techniques to make these predictions. By monitoring diagnostic signals during a discharge, such predictive models look for signs that the plasma is about to disrupt. Typically these predictive models are interpreted simply to give a `yes' or `no' response as to whether a disruption is approaching. However, it is possible to extract further information from these models to indicate which input signals are more strongly correlated with the plasma approaching a disruption. If highly accurate predictive models can be developed, this information could be used in plasma control schemes to make better decisions about disruption avoidance. This work was supported by a Grant from the 2016-2017 Fulbright U.S. Student Program, administered by the Franco-American Fulbright Commission in France.

Short- and long-term health consequences of sleep disruption.

Science.gov (United States)

Medic, Goran; Wille, Micheline; Hemels, Michiel Eh

2017-01-01

Sleep plays a vital role in brain function and systemic physiology across many body systems. Problems with sleep are widely prevalent and include deficits in quantity and quality of sleep; sleep problems that impact the continuity of sleep are collectively referred to as sleep disruptions. Numerous factors contribute to sleep disruption, ranging from lifestyle and environmental factors to sleep disorders and other medical conditions. Sleep disruptions have substantial adverse short- and long-term health consequences. A literature search was conducted to provide a nonsystematic review of these health consequences (this review was designed to be nonsystematic to better focus on the topics of interest due to the myriad parameters affected by sleep). Sleep disruption is associated with increased activity of the sympathetic nervous system and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, metabolic effects, changes in circadian rhythms, and proinflammatory responses. In otherwise healthy adults, short-term consequences of sleep disruption include increased stress responsivity, somatic pain, reduced quality of life, emotional distress and mood disorders, and cognitive, memory, and performance deficits. For adolescents, psychosocial health, school performance, and risk-taking behaviors are impacted by sleep disruption. Behavioral problems and cognitive functioning are associated with sleep disruption in children. Long-term consequences of sleep disruption in otherwise healthy individuals include hypertension, dyslipidemia, cardiovascular disease, weight-related issues, metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and colorectal cancer. All-cause mortality is also increased in men with sleep disturbances. For those with underlying medical conditions, sleep disruption may diminish the health-related quality of life of children and adolescents and may worsen the severity of common gastrointestinal disorders. As a result of the potential consequences of sleep disruption, health care

Abnormal energy deposition on the wall through plasma disruptions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamazaki, K.; Schmidt, G.L.

1984-01-01

The dissipation of plasma kinetic and magnetic energy during sawtooth oscillations and disruptions in tokamak is analyzed using Kadomtsev's disruption model and the plasma-circuit equations. New simple scalings of several characteristic times are obtained for sawteeth and for thermal and magnetic energy quenches of disruptions. The abnormal energy deposition on the wall during major or minor disruptions, estimated from this analysis, is compared with bolometric measurements in the PDX tokamak. Especially, magnetic energy dissipation during the current termination period is shown to be reduced by the strong coupling of the plasma current with external circuits. These analyses are found to be useful to predict the phenomenological behavior of plasma disruptions in large future tokamaks, and to estimate abnormal heat deposition on the wall during plasma disruptions. (orig.)

Disruptive Innovation in Chinese and Indian Businesses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

markets, has made these emerging economies fertile ground for developing and applying disruptive innovations. A novel mix of key attributes distinctive from those of established technologies or business models, disruptive innovations are typically inferior, yet affordable and "good-enough" products...... or services, which originate in lower-end market segments, but later move up to compete with those provided by incumbent firms. This book sheds new light on disruptive innovations both from and for the bottom of the pyramid in China and India, from the point of view of local entrepreneurs and international...... firms seeking to operate their businesses there. It covers both the theoretical and practical implications of disruptive innovation using conceptual frameworks alongside detailed case studies, whilst also providing a comparison of conditions and strategic options in India and China. Further, unlike...

Integrated disruption avoidance and mitigation in KSTAR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jayhyun; Woo, M.H.; Han, H.; In, Y.; Bak, J.G.; Eidietis, N.W.

2014-01-01

The final target of Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research (KSTAR) aims advanced tokamak operation at plasma current 2 MA and toroidal field 3.5 T. In order to safely achieve the target, disruption counter-measures are unavoidable when considering the disruption risks, inevitably accompanied with high performance discharges, such as electro-magnetic load on conducting structures, collisional damage by run-away electrons, and thermal load on plasma facing components (PFCs). In this reason, the establishment of integrated disruption mitigation system (DMS) has been started for routine mega-ampere class operations of KSTAR since 2013 campaign. The DMS mainly consists of the disruption prediction and its avoidance/mitigation in company with logical/technical integration of them. We present the details of KSTAR DMS and the related experimental results in this article. (author)

Prediction of density limit disruptions on the J-TEXT tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, S Y; Chen, Z Y; Huang, D W; Tong, R H; Yan, W; Wei, Y N; Ma, T K; Zhang, M; Zhuang, G

2016-01-01

Disruption mitigation is essential for the next generation of tokamaks. The prediction of plasma disruption is the key to disruption mitigation. A neural network combining eight input signals has been developed to predict the density limit disruptions on the J-TEXT tokamak. An optimized training method has been proposed which has improved the prediction performance. The network obtained has been tested on 64 disruption shots and 205 non-disruption shots. A successful alarm rate of 82.8% with a false alarm rate of 12.3% can be achieved at 4.8 ms prior to the current spike of the disruption. It indicates that more physical parameters than the current physical scaling should be considered for predicting the density limit. It was also found that the critical density for disruption can be predicted several tens of milliseconds in advance in most cases. Furthermore, if the network is used for real-time density feedback control, more than 95% of the density limit disruptions can be avoided by setting a proper threshold. (paper)

Analysis of disruptive instabilities in Aditya tokamak discharges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chattopadhyay, Asim Kumar; Anand, Arun; Rao, C.V.S.; Joisa, Shankar; Aditya team

2006-01-01

Major disruptions and sawteeth oscillations (internal disruptions) are routinely observed in ohmically heated Aditya tokamak discharges and their characteristics have been investigated with the help of soft x-ray (SXR) tomography along with other diagnostics. The SXR tomography is carried out with the help of single array of detectors assuming rigid rotation of the modes to analyse the mode structure of sawtooth internal disruptions. Coupling of m/n = 2/1 and m/n=1/1 modes could be the main mechanism for the major disruption. Sawteeth periods were measured and compared with the scaling laws and found to be in good agreement. (author)

Relaxation near Supermassive Black Holes Driven by Nuclear Spiral Arms: Anisotropic Hypervelocity Stars, S-stars, and Tidal Disruption Events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamers, Adrian S. [Institute for Advanced Study, School of Natural Sciences, Einstein Drive, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States); Perets, Hagai B., E-mail: hamers@ias.edu [Technion—Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa 32000 (Israel)

2017-09-10

Nuclear spiral arms are small-scale transient spiral structures found in the centers of galaxies. Similarly to their galactic-scale counterparts, nuclear spiral arms can perturb the orbits of stars. In the case of the Galactic center (GC), these perturbations can affect the orbits of stars and binaries in a region extending to several hundred parsecs around the supermassive black hole (SMBH), causing diffusion in orbital energy and angular momentum. This diffusion process can drive stars and binaries to close approaches with the SMBH, disrupting single stars in tidal disruption events (TDEs), or disrupting binaries, leaving a star tightly bound to the SMBH and an unbound star escaping the galaxy, i.e., a hypervelocity star (HVS). Here, we consider diffusion by nuclear spiral arms in galactic nuclei, specifically the Milky Way GC. We determine nuclear-spiral-arm-driven diffusion rates using test-particle integrations and compute disruption rates. Our TDE rates are up to 20% higher compared to relaxation by single stars. For binaries, the enhancement is up to a factor of ∼100, and our rates are comparable to the observed numbers of HVSs and S-stars. Our scenario is complementary to relaxation driven by massive perturbers. In addition, our rates depend on the inclination of the binary with respect to the Galactic plane. Therefore, our scenario provides a novel potential source for the observed anisotropic distribution of HVSs. Nuclear spiral arms may also be important for accelerating the coalescence of binary SMBHs and for supplying nuclear star clusters with stars and gas.

Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals and Disease Susceptibility

Science.gov (United States)

Schug, Thaddeus T.; Janesick, Amanda; Blumberg, Bruce; Heindel, Jerrold J.

2011-01-01

Environmental chemicals have significant impacts on biological systems. Chemical exposures during early stages of development can disrupt normal patterns of development and thus dramatically alter disease susceptibility later in life. Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) interfere with the body's endocrine system and produce adverse developmental, reproductive, neurological, cardiovascular, metabolic and immune effects in humans. A wide range of substances, both natural and man-made, are thought to cause endocrine disruption, including pharmaceuticals, dioxin and dioxin-like compounds, polychlorinated biphenyls, DDT and other pesticides, and components of plastics such as bisphenol A (BPA) and phthalates. EDCs are found in many everyday products– including plastic bottles, metal food cans, detergents, flame retardants, food additives, toys, cosmetics, and pesticides. EDCs interfere with the synthesis, secretion, transport, activity, or elimination of natural hormones. This interference can block or mimic hormone action, causing a wide range of effects. This review focuses on the mechanisms and modes of action by which EDCs alter hormone signaling. It also includes brief overviews of select disease endpoints associated with endocrine disruption. PMID:21899826

Thyroid effects of endocrine disrupting chemicals.

Science.gov (United States)

Boas, Malene; Feldt-Rasmussen, Ulla; Main, Katharina M

2012-05-22

In recent years, many studies of thyroid-disrupting effects of environmental chemicals have been published. Of special concern is the exposure of pregnant women and infants, as thyroid disruption of the developing organism may have deleterious effects on neurological outcome. Chemicals may exert thyroid effects through a variety of mechanisms of action, and some animal experiments and in vitro studies have focused on elucidating the mode of action of specific chemical compounds. Long-term human studies on effects of environmental chemicals on thyroid related outcomes such as growth and development are still lacking. The human exposure scenario with life long exposure to a vast mixture of chemicals in low doses and the large physiological variation in thyroid hormone levels between individuals render human studies very difficult. However, there is now reasonably firm evidence that PCBs have thyroid-disrupting effects, and there is emerging evidence that also phthalates, bisphenol A, brominated flame retardants and perfluorinated chemicals may have thyroid disrupting properties. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

An overview on plasma disruption mitigation and avoidance in tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He Kaihui; Pan Chuanhong; Feng Kaiming

2002-01-01

Plasma disruption, which seems to be unavoidable in Tokamak operation, occurs very fast and uncontrolled. In order to keep Tokamak plasma from disruption and mitigate the disruption frequency, the research on Tokamak plasma major disruption constitutes one of the main topics in plasma physics. The phenomena and processes of the precursor, thermal quench, current quench, VDE, halo current and runaway electrons generation during plasma disruption are analyzed in detail and systematically based on the data obtained from current Tokamaks such as TFTR, JET, JT-60U and ASDEX-U, etc. The methods to mitigate and avoid disruption in Tokamak are also highlighted schematically. Therefore, it is helpful and instructive for plasma disruption research in next generation large Tokamak such as ITER-FEAT

The Supply of Medical Radioisotopes. 2016 Medical Isotope Supply Review: 99Mo/99mTc Market Demand and Production Capacity Projection 2016-2021

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charlton, Kevin; )

2016-03-01

Medical diagnostic imaging techniques using technetium-99m ( 99 mTc) account for approximately 80% of all nuclear medicine procedures, representing 30-40 million examinations Worldwide every year. Disruptions in the supply chain of these medical isotopes - which have half-lives of 66 hours for molybdenum-99 ( 99 Mo) and only 6 hours for 99m Tc, and thus must be produced continuously - can lead to cancellations or delays in important medical testing services. Supply reliability has been challenged over the past decade due to unexpected shutdowns and extended refurbishment periods at some of the 99 Mo-producing research reactors and processing facilities. These shutdowns have at times created conditions for extended global supply shortages (e.g. 2009-2010). At the request of its member countries, the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) became involved in global efforts to ensure a secure supply of 99 Mo/ 99m Tc. Since June 2009, the NEA and its High-level Group on the Security of Supply of Medical Radioisotopes (HLG-MR) have examined the causes of supply shortages and developed a policy approach, including principles and supporting recommendations to address those causes. The NEA has also reviewed the global 99 Mo supply situation periodically, to highlight periods of potential reduced supply and to underscore the case for implementing the HLG-MR policy approach in a timely and globally consistent manner. In 2012, the NEA released a 99 Mo supply and demand forecast up to 2030, identifying periods of potential low supply relative to demand. That 2012 forecast was updated with a report in 2014 that focused on the much shorter 2015-2020 period. That report was updated in 2015 with a report, '2015 Medical Isotope Supply Review: 99 Mo/ 99m Tc Market Demand and Production Capacity Projection 2015-2020' (NEA, 2015), which focused on the same period. This report updates the 2015 report, and focuses on the important 2016-2021 period. At the end of 2015, the OSIRIS reactor

Proactive inventory policy intervention to mitigate risk within cooperative supply chains

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takako Kurano

2014-04-01

Full Text Available This exploratory paper will investigate the concept of supply chain risk management involving supplier monitoring within a cooperative supply chain. Inventory levels and stockouts are the key metrics. Key to this concept is the assumptions that (1 out-of-control supplier situations are causal triggers for downstream supply chain disruptions, (2 these triggers can potentially be predicted using statistical process monitoring tools, and (3 carrying excess inventory only when needed is preferable as opposed to carrying excess inventory on a continual basis. Simulation experimentation will be used to explore several supplier monitoring strategies based on statistical runs tests, specifically "runs up and down" and/or "runs above and below" tests. The sensitivity of these tests in detecting non-random supplier behavior will be explored and their performance will be investigated relative to stock-outs and inventory levels. Finally, the effects of production capacity and yield rate will be examined. Results indicate out-of-control supplier signals can be detected beforehand and stock-outs can be significantly reduced by dynamically adjusting inventory levels. The largest benefit occurs when both runs tests are used together and when the supplier has sufficient production capacity to respond to downstream demand (i.e., safety stock increases. When supplier capacity is limited, the highest benefit is achieved when yield rates are high and, thus, yield loss does not increase supplier production requirements beyond its available capacity.

Fuel-disruption experiments under high-ramp-rate heating conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wright, S.A.; Worledge, D.H.; Cano, G.L.; Mast, P.K.; Briscoe, F.

1983-10-01

This topical report presents the preliminary results and analysis of the High Ramp Rate fuel-disruption experiment series. These experiments were performed in the Annular Core Research Reactor at Sandia National Laboratories to investigate the timing and mode of fuel disruption during the prompt-burst phase of a loss-of-flow accident. High-speed cinematography was used to observe the timing and mode of the fuel disruption in a stack of five fuel pellets. Of the four experiments discussed, one used fresh mixed-oxide fuel, and three used irradiated mixed-oxide fuel. Analysis of the experiments indicates that in all cases, the observed disruption occurred well before fuel-vapor pressure was high enough to cause the disruption. The disruption appeared as a rapid spray-like expansion and occurred near the onset of fuel melting in the irradiated-fuel experiments and near the time of complete fuel melting in the fresh-fuel experiment. This early occurrence of fuel disruption is significant because it can potentially lower the work-energy release resulting from a prompt-burst disassembly accident

Study of runaway current generation following disruptions in KSTAR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Z Y; Kim, W C; Yu, Y W; England, A C; Yoo, J W; Hahn, S H; Yoon, S W; Lee, K D; Oh, Y K; Kwak, J G; Kwon, M

2013-01-01

The high fraction of runaway current conversion following disruptions has an important effect on the first wall for next-generation tokamaks. Because of the potentially severe consequences of a large full current runaway beam on the first wall in an unmitigated disruption, runaway suppression is given a high priority. The behavior of runaway currents both in spontaneous disruptions and in D 2 massive gas injection (MGI) shutdown experiments is investigated in the KSTAR tokamak. The experiments in KSTAR show that the toroidal magnetic field threshold, B T >2 T, for runaway generation is not absolute. A high fraction of runaway current conversion following spontaneous disruptions is observed at a much lower toroidal magnetic field of B T = 1.3 T. A dedicated fast valve for high-pressure gas injection with 39.7 bar is developed for the study of disruptions. A study of runaway current parameters shows that the conversion efficiency of pre-disruptive plasma currents into runaway current can reach over 80% both in spontaneous disruptions and in D 2 MGI shutdown experiments in KSTAR. (paper)

Disruption simulation for the EAST plasma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niu Xingping; Wu Bin

2007-01-01

The disruptions due to vertical displacement event for the EAST plasma are simulated in this article by using the TSC program. Meanwhile, the evolutions of the halo current and stress on vacuum vessel are calculated; the disruptions at different initial conditions are compared with each other, and killer pellet injection is simulated for the device fast shutting-down. (authors)

Antecedents and implications of disruptive innovation: Evidence from China

OpenAIRE

Wan, Feng; Williamson, Peter; Yin, Eden

2015-01-01

A growing recognition of the importance of disruptive innovation has led researchers to examine the question of how disruptive innovation comes about and to what extent it reflects "discovery" versus "creation" of opportunities. Earlier research has focused on the organisational preconditions for disruptive innovation to arise. Much less attention has been paid to the role of innovation processes, including their goals and design, in promoting disruptive innovation. In this paper we aim to be...

Supply Chain Connectivity: Enhancing Participation in the Global Supply Chain

OpenAIRE

Patalinghug, Epictetus E.

2015-01-01

Supply chain connectivity is vital for the efficient flow of trade among APEC economies. This paper reviews the literature and supply chain management, describes the barriers to enhancing participation in global supply chain, analyzes the various measures of supply chain performance, and suggests steps for the Philippines to fully reap the benefits of the global value chain.

What is the place of the energy supply security and energy independence in the energy policy?; Quelle est la place des preoccupations de securite d'approvisionnement et d'independance energetique dans la politique de l'energie?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2001-12-15

Since the petroleum crisis and the electric power cuts of the 1999 storm, the energy security interest is growing. The author recall the structural risks of the energy systems and the vulnerability of the occidental economies to the supply disruptions. They propose then a long term cooperation between producer and consumer countries, a development of operational tools to face the crisis and a supply security inside the europe. (A.L.B.)

Simulations of Magnetic Fields in Tidally Disrupted Stars

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guillochon, James [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, The Institute for Theory and Computation, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); McCourt, Michael, E-mail: jguillochon@cfa.harvard.edu [Department of Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 (United States)

2017-01-10

We perform the first magnetohydrodynamical simulations of tidal disruptions of stars by supermassive black holes. We consider stars with both tangled and ordered magnetic fields, for both grazing and deeply disruptive encounters. When the star survives disruption, we find its magnetic field amplifies by a factor of up to 20, but see no evidence for a self-sustaining dynamo that would yield arbitrary field growth. For stars that do not survive, and within the tidal debris streams produced in partial disruptions, we find that the component of the magnetic field parallel to the direction of stretching along the debris stream only decreases slightly with time, eventually resulting in a stream where the magnetic pressure is in equipartition with the gas. Our results suggest that the returning gas in most (if not all) stellar tidal disruptions is already highly magnetized by the time it returns to the black hole.

Adapting Chinese Forest Operations to Socio-Economic Developments: What is the Potential of Plantations for Strengthening Domestic Wood Supply?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephan Hoffmann

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Over recent decades, China’s forestry sector went through a transition phase characterized by a management and institutional reform process, with a constant rethinking of the ecological and societal role of forests within a unique political system. Nevertheless, despite impressive achievements in forest restoration and conservation efforts, the enhancement of ecosystem services and forest area expansion through plantation development, China was not able to improve its domestic timber supply capacities according to its demands. Consequently, the continually growing wood processing industry is facing a severe demand-and-supply gap, causing high dependencies on timber imports. Outdated forest operations practices, dominated by manual labour, are not able to meet supply demands or to implement new silvicultural strategies for enhancing forest quality and productivity and are a widely unnoted disruption of a sustainable development. Therefore, this review presents the status quo of China’s forest operations sector, how it is shaped by forest policy reforms and recent socio-economic developments. In addition, suggestions are developed how the sector can progress through policy adaptations in order to develop sustainable timber supply capacities based on a domestic plantation sector.

Alignment of global supply networks based on strategic groups of supply chains

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nikos G. Moraitakis

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Background: From a supply chain perspective, often big differences exist between global raw material suppliers’ approaches to supply their respective local markets. The progressing complexity of large centrally managed global supply networks and their often-unknown upstream ramifications increase the likelihood of undetected bottlenecks and inefficiencies. It is therefore necessary to develop an approach to strategically master the upstream complexity of such networks from a holistic supply chain perspective in order to align regional competitive priorities and supply chain structures. The objective of this research is hence to develop an approach for the supply-chain-based alignment of complex global supply networks. Method: We review existing literature from the fields of supply chain and network management, strategic sourcing, and strategic management. Based on the literature review and theoretical and practical considerations we deduce a conceptual approach to consider upstream supply chain structures in supply network alignment initiatives. Results: On the basis of these considerations and current empirical literature we transfer strategic group theory to the supply network management context. The proposed approach introduces strategic groups of supply chains as a segmentation criterion for complex global supply networks which enables the network-wide alignment of competitive priorities. Conclusion: Supply-chain-based segmentation of global supply network structures can effectively reduce the complexity, firms face when aiming to strategically align their supply chains on a holistic level. The results of this research are applicable for certain types of global supply networks and can be used for network alignment and strategy development. The approach can furthermore generate insights useable for negotiation support with suppliers.

TAD disruption as oncogenic driver.

Science.gov (United States)

Valton, Anne-Laure; Dekker, Job

2016-02-01

Topologically Associating Domains (TADs) are conserved during evolution and play roles in guiding and constraining long-range regulation of gene expression. Disruption of TAD boundaries results in aberrant gene expression by exposing genes to inappropriate regulatory elements. Recent studies have shown that TAD disruption is often found in cancer cells and contributes to oncogenesis through two mechanisms. One mechanism locally disrupts domains by deleting or mutating a TAD boundary leading to fusion of the two adjacent TADs. The other mechanism involves genomic rearrangements that break up TADs and creates new ones without directly affecting TAD boundaries. Understanding the mechanisms by which TADs form and control long-range chromatin interactions will therefore not only provide insights into the mechanism of gene regulation in general, but will also reveal how genomic rearrangements and mutations in cancer genomes can lead to misregulation of oncogenes and tumor suppressors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation of a major tokamak disruption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

White, R.B.; Monticello, D.A.; Rosenbluth, M.N.

1977-08-01

It is known that the internal tokamak disruption leads to a current profile which is flattened inside the surface where the safety factor equals unity. It is shown that such a profile can lead to m = 2 magnetic islands which grow to fill a substantial part of the tokamak cross section in a time consistent with the observations of the major disruption

Risk factors for wound disruption following cesarean delivery.

Science.gov (United States)

Subramaniam, Akila; Jauk, Victoria C; Figueroa, Dana; Biggio, Joseph R; Owen, John; Tita, Alan T N

2014-08-01

Risk factors for post-cesarean wound infection, but not disruption, are well-described in the literature. The primary objective of this study was to identify risk factors for non-infectious post-cesarean wound disruption. Secondary analysis was conducted using data from a single-center randomized controlled trial of staple versus suture skin closure in women ≥24 weeks' gestation undergoing cesarean delivery. Wound disruption was defined as subcutaneous skin or fascial dehiscence excluding primary wound infections. Composite wound morbidity (disruption or infection) was examined as a secondary outcome. Patient demographics, medical co-morbidities, and intrapartum characteristics were evaluated as potential risk factors using multivariable logistic regression. Of the 398 randomized patients, 340, including 26 with disruptions (7.6%) met inclusion criteria and were analyzed. After multivariable adjustments, African-American race (aOR 3.9, 95% CI 1.1-13.8) and staple - as opposed to suture - wound closure (aOR 5.4, 95% CI 1.8-16.1) remained significant risk factors for disruption; non-significant increases were observed for body mass index ≥30 (aOR 2.1, 95% CI 0.6-7.5), but not for diabetes mellitus (aOR 0.9, 95% CI 0.3-2.9). RESULTS for composite wound morbidity were similar. Skin closure with staples, African-American race, and considering the relatively small sample size, potentially obesity are associated with increased risk of non-infectious post-cesarean wound disruption.

Hypoxia inducible factor-2α regulates the development of retinal astrocytic network by maintaining adequate supply of astrocyte progenitors.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li-Juan Duan

Full Text Available Here we investigate the role of hypoxia inducible factor (HIF-2α in coordinating the development of retinal astrocytic and vascular networks. Three Cre mouse lines were used to disrupt floxed Hif-2α, including Rosa26(CreERT2, Tie2(Cre, and GFAP(Cre. Global Hif-2α disruption by Rosa26(CreERT2 led to reduced astrocytic and vascular development in neonatal retinas, whereas endothelial disruption by Tie2(Cre had no apparent effects. Hif-2α deletion in astrocyte progenitors by GFAP(Cre significantly interfered with the development of astrocytic networks, which failed to reach the retinal periphery and were incapable of supporting vascular development. Perplexingly, the abundance of strongly GFAP(+ mature astrocytes transiently increased at P0 before they began to lag behind the normal controls by P3. Pax2(+ and PDGFRα(+ astrocytic progenitors and immature astrocytes were dramatically diminished at all stages examined. Despite decreased number of astrocyte progenitors, their proliferation index or apoptosis was not altered. The above data can be reconciled by proposing that HIF-2α is required for maintaining the supply of astrocyte progenitors by slowing down their differentiation into non-proliferative mature astrocytes. HIF-2α deficiency in astrocyte progenitors may accelerate their differentiation into astrocytes, a change which greatly interferes with the replenishment of astrocyte progenitors due to insufficient time for proliferation. Rapidly declining progenitor supply may lead to premature cessation of astrocyte development. Given that HIF-2α protein undergoes oxygen dependent degradation, an interesting possibility is that retinal blood vessels may regulate astrocyte differentiation through their oxygen delivery function. While our findings support the consensus that retinal astrocytic template guides vascular development, they also raise the possibility that astrocytic and vascular networks may mutually regulate each other

Water supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peterson, F.L.

1986-01-01

Options and methodologies for the development of fresh water supplies on Bikini Atoll are much the same as those practiced in the rest of the Marshall Islands and for that matter, most atolls in the central Pacific Ocean Basin. That is, rainfall distribution on Bikini produces a distinct wet season, lasting from about May through November, with the remaining months being generally dry. As a result, fresh water from surface catchments tends to be plentiful during the wet season? but is usually scarce during the dry months, and alternative sources such as groundwater must be utilized during this time. On Bikini the problems of fresh water supply are somewhat more difficult than for most Marshall Island atolls because rainfall is only about half the Marshall Island's average. Tus water supply is a critical factor limiting the carrying capacity of Bikini Atoll. To address this problem BARC has undertaken a study of the Bikini Atoll water supply. Te primary objectives of this work are to determine: (1) alternatives available for fresh water supply, 2 the amounts, location and quality of available supplies and 3 optimal development methods. The study planned for one's year duration, has been underway only since the summer of 1985 and is thus not yet fully completed. However, work done to date, which is presented in this report of preliminary findings, provides a reasonably accurate picture of Bikini's fresh water supplies and the various options available for their development. The work remaining to be completed will mainly add refinements to the water supply picture presented in the sections to follow

A review of formal institutions affecting water supply and access in Botswana

Science.gov (United States)

Mogomotsi, Patricia K.; Mogomotsi, Goemeone E. J.; Matlhola, Dimpho M.

2018-06-01

Over the years, many countries across the world have increasingly experienced the collapse of their ecosystems, leading to an elevated increase on the demand for freshwater resources. Botswana is not an exception. The problem of disrupted potable water supply is widespread across the country. However, the physical shortage of water in the country is arguably coupled by lack of effective and efficient water supply and management institutions and water infrastructure. Most of the research on water scarcity in Botswana is mostly inclined towards physical water scarcity, while little is investigated on how the design of institutions for water management in developing countries leads to water scarcity. Furthermore, the premises of most research is neoclassical economics ideas, thereby offering solutions as developing and/or reforming water markets and water pricing mechanisms, among other findings. This paper analyses potable water supply and access in Botswana within a new institutional economics paradigm. The study examines key features of water institutions in Botswana on how they affect water supply and access, applying new institutional economics fundamentals. The study extensively uses various secondary data sources including weather and climate reports, policy documents, maps and charts and survey data, among others. The paper argues that to achieve effective water allocation in Botswana, there is a need to balance social and environmental water resource needs through water policies and other statutory enactments, as well as the crafting of practical management strategies. The country, therefore, requires not only a swift institutional transformation in the water sector, but also needs practical governance structure necessary for implementing integrated water resources management and driving water resources towards sustainability.

What Can Healthcare Supply Chains Learn from Consumer-Product Supply Chains?

OpenAIRE

Schwarz, Leroy B.

2008-01-01

A Framework for Thinking About Supply-Chain Management: “The IDIB Portfolio” (Information, Decision-making, Implementation, Buffer system) Describe Supply-Chains for Consumer Products Before “Wal-Mart” Describe Supply-Chains for Consumer Products After “Wal-Mart” Describe Stylized Supply Chain for Healthcare Products

Disruptive instabilities in the TBR-1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vannucci, A.

1987-01-01

The disruptive instabilities in the TBR-1 tokamak of the Plasma Physics Laboratory of the Institute of Physics-USP were investigated by using surface-barrier detectors and Mirnov magnetic coils, measuring soft X-ray emited by the plasma and poloidal magnetic fluctuations, respectively. Minor and major disruptions, as well sawteeth oscillations, were identified at the TBR-1 discharges, and their main characteristics were studied. Comparing the measured period of the internal disruptions (sawteeth) with the ones expected from scaling laws, good agreements is reached. The measured sawteeth crashes agree with the values expected from the Kadomtsev's model. External helical fields (CHR), corresponding to m/n=2/1 helicity were produced in order to inhibit or criate disruptive instabilities. A strong weakening of the mhd activity, present in the TBR-1 discharges, was clearly detected. The soft X-ray detection system, projected and constructed for this work, was used to obtain the electron temperatures of regions close to the center of the plasma column (T(r=0) ∼ 205 eV and T(r ± 3,8) ∼ 85 eV), using the absorbing foils method. Using the Spitzer formula, Z sub (eff) values were also obtained. (author) [pt

Analysis of the electricity supply-demand balance for the winter of 2010-2011. A globally more favourable situation than last winter up to the end of January 2011. The risk of supply disruption is moderate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

Twice a year, RTE publishes a forecast study of the electricity supply and demand in continental France for the summer and winter periods. The study is based on the information supplied by electric utilities concerning the expected availability of power generation means and on statistical meteorological models. Safety margins are calculated using thousands of probabilistic scenarios combining various production and consumption situations. This report is the forecast study for the winter of 2010-2011

The high density and high βpol disruption mechanism on TFTR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fredrickson, E.D.; Manickam, J.; McGuire, K.M.; Monticello, D.; Nagayama, Y.; Park, W.; Taylor, G.

1992-01-01

Studies of disruptions on TFTR have been extended to include high density disruptions as well as the high β pol disruptions. The data strongly suggests that the (m,n)=(1,1) mode plays an important role in both types of disruptions. Further, for the first time, it is unambiguously shown, using a fast electron cyclotron emission (ECE) instrument for the electron temperature profile measurements, that the (m,n)=(1,1) precursor to the high density disruptions has a 'cold bubble' structure. The precursor to the major disruption at high density resembles the 'vacuum bubble' model of disruptions first proposed by Kadomtsev and Pogutse. (author) 2 refs., 2 figs

Disruptive technologies and networking in telecom industries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Erik Strøjer; Hartington, Simon

in the telecommunication industry and finds significant similarities between the industry development and the literature on disruptive technology, which finds that incumbent companies are not able to react in a successful way when disruptions occur in their industry. By studying how the telecommunication industry...

Resistance to Disruption in a Classroom Setting

Science.gov (United States)

Parry-Cruwys, Diana E.; Neal, Carrie M.; Ahearn, William H.; Wheeler, Emily E.; Premchander, Raseeka; Loeb, Melissa B.; Dube, William V.

2011-01-01

Substantial experimental evidence indicates that behavior reinforced on a denser schedule is more resistant to disruption than is behavior reinforced on a thinner schedule. The present experiment studied resistance to disruption in a natural educational environment. Responding during familiar activities was reinforced on a multiple…

Short- and long-term health consequences of sleep disruption

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Medic G

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Goran Medic,1,2 Micheline Wille,1 Michiel EH Hemels1 1Market Access, Horizon Pharma B.V., Utrecht, 2Unit of Pharmacoepidemiology & Pharmacoeconomics, Department of Pharmacy, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands Abstract: Sleep plays a vital role in brain function and systemic physiology across many body systems. Problems with sleep are widely prevalent and include deficits in quantity and quality of sleep; sleep problems that impact the continuity of sleep are collectively referred to as sleep disruptions. Numerous factors contribute to sleep disruption, ranging from lifestyle and environmental factors to sleep disorders and other medical conditions. Sleep disruptions have substantial adverse short- and long-term health consequences. A literature search was conducted to provide a nonsystematic review of these health consequences (this review was designed to be nonsystematic to better focus on the topics of interest due to the myriad parameters affected by sleep. Sleep disruption is associated with increased activity of the sympathetic nervous system and hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal axis, metabolic effects, changes in circadian rhythms, and proinflammatory responses. In otherwise healthy adults, short-term consequences of sleep disruption include increased stress responsivity, somatic pain, reduced quality of life, emotional distress and mood disorders, and cognitive, memory, and performance deficits. For adolescents, psychosocial health, school performance, and risk-taking behaviors are impacted by sleep disruption. Behavioral problems and cognitive functioning are associated with sleep disruption in children. Long-term consequences of sleep disruption in otherwise healthy individuals include hypertension, dyslipidemia, cardiovascular disease, weight-related issues, metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and colorectal cancer. All-cause mortality is also increased in men with sleep disturbances. For those with

Technology and plasma-materials interaction processes of tokamak disruptions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McGrath, R.T.; Kellman, A.G.

1992-01-01

A workshop on the technology and plasma-materials interaction processes of tokamak disruptions was held April 3, 1992 in Monterey, California, as a satellite meeting of the 10th International Conference on Plasma-Surface Interactions. The objective was to bring together researchers working on disruption measurements in operating tokamaks, those performing disruption simulation experiments using pulsed plasma gun, electron beam and laser systems, and computational physicists attempting to model the evolution and plasma-materials interaction processes of tokamak disruptions. This is a brief report on the workshop. 4 refs

Sleep disruption and the sequelae associated with traumatic brain injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Lucke-Wold, Brandon P; Smith, Kelly E; Nguyen, Linda; Turner, Ryan C; Logsdon, Aric F; Jackson, Garrett J; Huber, Jason D; Rosen, Charles L; Miller, Diane B

2015-08-01

Sleep disruption, which includes a loss of sleep as well as poor quality fragmented sleep, frequently follows traumatic brain injury (TBI) impacting a large number of patients each year in the United States. Fragmented and/or disrupted sleep can worsen neuropsychiatric, behavioral, and physical symptoms of TBI. Additionally, sleep disruption impairs recovery and can lead to cognitive decline. The most common sleep disruption following TBI is insomnia, which is difficulty staying asleep. The consequences of disrupted sleep following injury range from deranged metabolomics and blood brain barrier compromise to altered neuroplasticity and degeneration. There are several theories for why sleep is necessary (e.g., glymphatic clearance and metabolic regulation) and these may help explain how sleep disruption contributes to degeneration within the brain. Experimental data indicate disrupted sleep allows hyperphosphorylated tau and amyloid β plaques to accumulate. As sleep disruption may act as a cellular stressor, target areas warranting further scientific investigation include the increase in endoplasmic reticulum and oxidative stress following acute periods of sleep deprivation. Potential treatment options for restoring the normal sleep cycle include melatonin derivatives and cognitive behavioral therapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Enzymatic cell disruption of microalgae biomass in biorefinery processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Demuez, Marie; Mahdy, Ahmed; Tomás-Pejó, Elia; González-Fernández, Cristina; Ballesteros, Mercedes

2015-10-01

When employing biotechnological processes for the procurement of biofuels and bio-products from microalgae, one of the most critical steps affecting economy and yields is the "cell disruption" stage. Currently, enzymatic cell disruption has delivered effective and cost competitive results when compared to mechanical and chemical cell disruption methods. However, the introduction of enzymes implies additional associated cost within the overall process. In order to reduce this cost, autolysis of microalgae is proposed as alternative enzymatic cell disruption method. This review aims to provide the state of the art of enzymatic cell disruption treatments employed in biorefinery processes and highlights the use of endopeptidases. During the enzymatic processes of microalgae life cycle, some lytic enzymes involved in cell division and programmed cell death have been proven useful in performing cell lysis. In this context, the role of endopeptidases is emphasized. Mirroring these natural events, an alternative cell disruption approach is proposed and described with the potential to induce the autolysis process using intrinsic cell enzymes. Integrating induced autolysis within biofuel production processes offers a promising approach to reduce overall global costs and energetic input associated with those of current cell disruption methods. A number of options for further inquiry are also discussed. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Macroeconomic effects of petroleum supply disruptions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamilton, J.D.

1983-01-01

Seven of the eight US recessions since World War II have been preceded, typically with a lag of around 3/4 of a year, by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum. That this correlation is more than just a coincidence is supported by parametric and nonparametric statistical tests on a variety of US time series and sample periods. Moreover, both the institutional structure of the petroleum industry and the historical timing of key economic events indicate that the oil shocks represented largely exogenous shocks to the US economy. Thus, the data support the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the US recessions prior to 1972. By extension, energy price increases may account for much of post-OPEC macroeconomic performance. Illustrative calculations establish that adjustments of planned investment to historical changes in energy prices, together with Keynesian-multiplier effects associated with unintended inventory accumulation, were of sufficient magnitude to have exerted a major impact on macroeconomic activity throughout the postwar period.

Network Formation under the Threat of Disruption

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoyer, B.

2013-01-01

The studies in this thesis are focused on the impact the presence of a network disruptor has on network formation models. In particular, we build two theoretical models to study the effect of network disruption on network formation and test the effect network disruption has on equilibrium selection

Disruptive event analysis: volcanism and igneous intrusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.M.

1980-08-01

An evaluation is made of the disruptive effects of volcanic activity with respect to long term isolation of radioactive waste through deep geologic storage. Three major questions are considered. First, what is the range of disruption effects of a radioactive waste repository by volcanic activity. Second, is it possible, by selective siting of a repository, to reduce the risk of disruption by future volcanic activity. And third, can the probability of repository disruption by volcanic activity be quantified. The main variables involved in the evaluation of the consequences of repository disruption by volcanic activity are the geometry of the magma-repository intersection (partly controlled by depth of burial) and the nature of volcanism. Potential radionuclide dispersal by volcanic transport within the biosphere ranges in distance from several kilometers to global. Risk from the most catastrophic types of eruptions can be reduced by careful site selection to maximize lag time prior to the onset of activity. Certain areas or volcanic provinces within the western United States have been sites of significant volcanism and should be avoided as potential sites for a radioactive waste repository. Examples of projection of future sites of active volcanism are discussed for three areas of the western United States. Probability calculations require two types of data: a numerical rate or frequency of volcanic activity and a numerical evaluation of the areal extent of volcanic disruption for a designated region. The former is clearly beyond the current state of art in volcanology. The latter can be approximated with a reasonable degree of satisfaction. In this report, simplified probability calculations are attempted for areas of past volcanic activity

Engineering analysis of TFTR disruption

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Murray, J.G.; Rothe, K.E.; Bronner, G.

1984-09-01

This report covers an engineering approach quantifying the currents, forces, and times, as well as plasma position, for the worst-case disruption based on engineerign circuit assumptions for the plasma. As the plasma moves toward the wall during the current-decay phase of disruption, the wall currents affect the rate of movement and, hence, the decay time. The calculated structure-induced currents differ considerably from those calculated using a presently available criterion, which specifies that the plasma remains stationary in the center of the torus while decaying in 10 ms. This report outlines the method and basis for the engineering calculation used to determine the current and forces as a function of the circuit characteristics. It provides specific calculations for the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) with variations in parameters such as the thermal decay time, the torus resistance, and plasma temperature during the current decay. The study reviews possible ways to reduce the disruption damage of TFTR by reducing the magnitude of the plasma external field energy that is absorbed by the plasma during the current decay.

Engineering analysis of TFTR disruption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murray, J.G.; Rothe, K.E.; Bronner, G.

1984-09-01

This report covers an engineering approach quantifying the currents, forces, and times, as well as plasma position, for the worst-case disruption based on engineerign circuit assumptions for the plasma. As the plasma moves toward the wall during the current-decay phase of disruption, the wall currents affect the rate of movement and, hence, the decay time. The calculated structure-induced currents differ considerably from those calculated using a presently available criterion, which specifies that the plasma remains stationary in the center of the torus while decaying in 10 ms. This report outlines the method and basis for the engineering calculation used to determine the current and forces as a function of the circuit characteristics. It provides specific calculations for the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) with variations in parameters such as the thermal decay time, the torus resistance, and plasma temperature during the current decay. The study reviews possible ways to reduce the disruption damage of TFTR by reducing the magnitude of the plasma external field energy that is absorbed by the plasma during the current decay

Periodic disruptions in the MT-1 tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zoletnik, S.

1988-11-01

Disruptive instabilities are common phenomena in toroidal devices, especially in tokamaks. Three types can be distinguished: internal, minor and major disruptions. Periodic minor disruptions in the MT-1 tokamak were measured systematically with values of the limiter safety factor between 4 and 10. The density limit as a function of plasma current and horizontal displacement was investigated. Precursor oscillations always appear before the instability with increasing amplitude but can be observed at the density limit with quasi-stationary amplitude. Phase correlation between precursor oscillations were measured with Mirnov coils and x-ray detectors, and they show good agreement with a simple magnetic island model. (R.P.) 11 refs.; 6 figs

What is the place of the energy supply security and energy independence in the energy policy?; Quelle est la place des preoccupations de securite d'approvisionnement et d'independance energetique dans la politique de l'energie?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2001-12-15

Since the petroleum crisis and the electric power cuts of the 1999 storm, the energy security interest is growing. The author recall the structural risks of the energy systems and the vulnerability of the occidental economies to the supply disruptions. They propose then a long term cooperation between producer and consumer countries, a development of operational tools to face the crisis and a supply security inside the europe. (A.L.B.)

Metabolic effects of bariatric surgery in mouse models of circadian disruption.

Science.gov (United States)

Arble, D M; Sandoval, D A; Turek, F W; Woods, S C; Seeley, R J

2015-08-01

Mounting evidence supports a link between circadian disruption and metabolic disease. Humans with circadian disruption (for example, night-shift workers) have an increased risk of obesity and cardiometabolic diseases compared with the non-disrupted population. However, it is unclear whether the obesity and obesity-related disorders associated with circadian disruption respond to therapeutic treatments as well as individuals with other types of obesity. Here, we test the effectiveness of the commonly used bariatric surgical procedure, Vertical Sleeve Gastrectomy (VSG), in mouse models of genetic and environmental circadian disruption. VSG led to a reduction in body weight and fat mass in both Clock(Δ19) mutant and constant-light mouse models (Pdisruption. Interestingly, the decrease in body weight occurred without altering diurnal feeding or activity patterns (P>0.05). Within circadian-disrupted models, VSG also led to improved glucose tolerance and lipid handling (Pdisruption, and that the potent effects of bariatric surgery are orthogonal to circadian biology. However, as the effects of bariatric surgery are independent of circadian disruption, VSG cannot be considered a cure for circadian disruption. These data have important implications for circadian-disrupted obese patients. Moreover, these results reveal new information about the metabolic pathways governing the effects of bariatric surgery as well as of circadian disruption.

Energy flow during disruptions in JET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paley, J.I.; Andrew, P.; Cowley, S.C.; Fundamenski, W.; Huber, A.

2005-01-01

Disruptions place severe limitations on the materials selected for plasma facing components in fusion devices. In a disruption, the plasma stored thermal and magnetic energy is dissipated leading to predicted power loadings in the current quench of up to 10 MW m -2 in JET. In the thermal quench very high power loads of up to 10 G Wm -2 would be expected if all the power flowed to the steady state strike points, however this is not observed. In this paper the energy balance associated with both events is investigated. The magnetic energy is found to balance well with radiated energy. Circumstantial evidence for limiter interaction during the thermal quench of plasmas in divertor configuration is presented and a possible mechanism for limiter interaction in disruptions resulting from the collapse of an internal transport barrier is discussed

Plasma diffusion in systems with disrupted magnetic surfaces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morozov, D.K.; Pogutse, O.P.

1982-01-01

Plasma diffusion is analyzed in the case in which the system of magnetic surfaces is disrupted by a stochastic perturbation of the magnetic field. The diffusion coefficient is related to the statistical properties of the field. The statistical characteristics of the field are found when the magnetic surfaces near the separatrix are disrupted by an external perturbation. The diffusion coefficient is evaluated in the region in which the magnetic surfaces are disrupted. In this region the diffusion coefficient is of the Bohm form

Supply Chain Management og Supply Chain costing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Steen; Mortensen, Ole

2002-01-01

Formålet med denne artikel er at belyse de muligheder som ligger i at integrere virksomhedens økonomiske styring med begrebet Supply Chain Management (SCM). Dette søges belyst ved først at beskrive den teoretiske ramme, hvori SCM indgår. Herefter analyseres begrebet Supply Chain Costing (SCC) som...... Århus. Et resultat er, at via begrebet Supply Chain Costing skabes der mulighed for at måle logistikkædens aktiviteter i kr./øre. Anvendelsen af denne information har også strategisk betydning for at kunne vælge kunde og leverandør. Ved hjælp af integrationen skabes der også helt nye mulighed...

Resonant Tidal Disruption in Galactic Nuclei

OpenAIRE

Rauch, Kevin P.; Ingalls, Brian

1997-01-01

It has recently been shown that the rate of angular momentum relaxation in nearly-Keplerian star clusters is greatly increased by a process termed resonant relaxation (Rauch & Tremaine 1996), who also argued that tidal disruption of stars in galactic nuclei containing massive black holes could be noticeably enhanced by this process. We describe here the results of numerical simulations of resonant tidal disruption which quantitatively test the predictions made by Rauch & Tremaine. The simulat...

BUSINESS MODEL PATTERNS FOR DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES

OpenAIRE

BENJAMIN AMSHOFF; CHRISTIAN DÜLME; JULIAN ECHTERFELD; JÜRGEN GAUSEMEIER

2015-01-01

Companies nowadays face a myriad of business opportunities as a direct consequence of manifold disruptive technology developments. As a basic characteristic, disruptive technologies lead to a severe shift in value-creation networks giving rise to new market segments. One of the key challenges is to anticipate the business logics within these nascent and formerly unknown markets. Business model patterns promise to tackle this challenge. They can be interpreted as proven business model elements...

Towards A Research Agenda on Digital Platform Disruption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kazan, Erol; Tan, Chee-Wee; Lim, Eric T. K.

Digital platforms are disruptive IT artifacts, because they facilitate the quick release of innovative platform derivatives from third parties. This study endeavors to unravel the disruptive potential, caused by distinct designs and configurations of digital platforms on market environments. We...... postulate that the disruptive potential of digital platforms is determined by the degree of alignment among the business, technology and platform profiles. Furthermore, we argue that the design and configuration of the aforementioned three elements dictates the extent to which open innovation is permitted....... To shed light on the disruptive potential of digital platforms, we opted for digital payment platforms as our unit of analysis. Through interviews with experts and payment providers, we seek to gain an in-depth appreciation of how contemporary digital payment platforms are designed and configured...

Magnetohydrodynamic simulations of density-limit disruptions in tokamaks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kleva, R.G.; Drake, J.F.; Denton, R.E.

1990-01-01

Magnetohydrodynamic simulations are presented which demonstrate that density limit disruptions can be triggered by edge radiation which destabilizes a q = 1 kink followed by a q = 2 tearing mode. A bubble of cold plasma is injected from the edge into the center by the q = 1 kink. The q = 2 mode then broadens the current profile and throws the hot plasma to the wall. The MHD simulations presented are the first to successfully reproduce several key features of density limit disruptions including (1) the rapid drop in the central temperature, (2) the rapid expansion of the current profile, (3) the m = 1 cold bubble which is seen to be injected from the edge into the center during density limit disruptions on JET, and (4) disruptions in sawtoothing discharges. (author)

Power loading on the first wall during disruptions in TFTR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janos, A.; Fredrickson, E.D.; McGuire, K.M.; Nagayama, Y.; Owens, D.K.; Wilfrid, E.

1992-01-01

Heating of the first wall of TFTR due to disruptions is investigated experimentally using an extensive array of thermocouples. By comparing results from discharges with and without disruptions, we extract effects due to the disruption alone. Disruptions preferentially heat the same areas which are heated during discharges without disruptions. Hot areas are inward protrusions or regions unshielded by neighboring areas. Peaking factors in the toroidal direction, defined as peak temperature divided by average toroidal temperature, as a function of poloidal angle, are calculated. For nondisruptive discharges, the peaking factor varies between 2 and 4. For the disruptive portion of a discharge only, the peaking factor near the midplane, where most of the energy is deposited, ranges from 3 to 5. Further away from the midplane, the peaking factor can reach 28, although the heat load is less in that region. (orig.)

An organizational assessment of disruptive clinician behavior: findings and implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Walrath, Jo M; Dang, Deborah; Nyberg, Dorothy

2013-01-01

This study investigated registered nurses' (RNs) and physicians' (MD) experiences with disruptive behavior, triggers, responses, and impacts on clinicians, patients, and the organization. Using the Disruptive Clinician Behavior Survey for Hospital Settings, it was found that RNs experienced a significantly higher frequency of disruptive behaviors and triggers than MDs; MDs (45% of 295) and RNs (37% of 689) reported that their peer's disruptive behavior affected them most negatively. The most frequently occurring trigger was pressure from high census, volume, and patient flow; 189 incidences of harm to patients as a result of disruptive behavior were reported. Findings provide organizational leaders with evidence to customize interventions to strengthen the culture of safety.

Fuel retention and recovery in natural and MGI disruptions on KSTAR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Y.W.; Hong, S.H.; Yoon, S.W.; Kim, K.P.; Kim, W.C.; Seo, D.C.

2013-01-01

Fuel retention and recovery are studied during natural and Massive Gas Injection (MGI) induced disruptions in KSTAR with full graphite wall. The amount of released particles in natural disruptions in 15 s after the discharge is ∼5–10 times higher than that of non-disruption shots, but the difference is only ∼ 2 MGI induced disruptions depends on magnetic field (B t ) and MGI amount. The MGI disruption under a low B t and a medium MGI amount shows shorter thermal quench (TQ) and current quench (CQ), thereby higher fuel recovery. High B t plasma requires higher MGI amount for both disruption mitigation and fuel recovery. A high recovery of 4.2 × 10 22 D (∼0.78 monolayers) is obtained by MGI disruption in KSTAR 2011

Feature extraction for improved disruption prediction analysis at JET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ratta, G. A.; Vega, J.; Murari, A.; Johnson, M.

2008-01-01

Disruptions are major instabilities and remain one of the main problems in tokomaks. Using Joint European Torus database, a disruption predictor is developed by computational methods including supervised learning techniques. The main objectives of the work are to develop accurate automatic classifiers, to test their performances, and to determine how much in advance of the disruption they can operate with acceptable reliability.

The Relative Ineffectiveness of Criminal Network Disruption

Science.gov (United States)

Duijn, Paul A. C.; Kashirin, Victor; Sloot, Peter M. A.

2014-01-01

Researchers, policymakers and law enforcement agencies across the globe struggle to find effective strategies to control criminal networks. The effectiveness of disruption strategies is known to depend on both network topology and network resilience. However, as these criminal networks operate in secrecy, data-driven knowledge concerning the effectiveness of different criminal network disruption strategies is very limited. By combining computational modeling and social network analysis with unique criminal network intelligence data from the Dutch Police, we discovered, in contrast to common belief, that criminal networks might even become ‘stronger’, after targeted attacks. On the other hand increased efficiency within criminal networks decreases its internal security, thus offering opportunities for law enforcement agencies to target these networks more deliberately. Our results emphasize the importance of criminal network interventions at an early stage, before the network gets a chance to (re-)organize to maximum resilience. In the end disruption strategies force criminal networks to become more exposed, which causes successful network disruption to become a long-term effort. PMID:24577374

The Use of Supply Chains and Supply Chain Management in the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Dr Peter Schmitz

supply chain management to guide the production of maps. Supply chain management can ... Distribution and logistics. Product flow. Information flow and Money. The Firm. Data from supplier(s) ..... In Global Supply Chains: Developing Skills ...

Disruptive behaviour in the perioperative setting: a contemporary review.

Science.gov (United States)

Villafranca, Alexander; Hamlin, Colin; Enns, Stephanie; Jacobsohn, Eric

2017-02-01

Disruptive behaviour, which we define as behaviour that does not show others an adequate level of respect and causes victims or witnesses to feel threatened, is a concern in the operating room. This review summarizes the current literature on disruptive behaviour as it applies to the perioperative domain. Searches of MEDLINE ® , Scopus™, and Google books identified articles and monographs of interest, with backreferencing used as a supplemental strategy. Much of the data comes from studies outside the operating room and has significant methodological limitations. Disruptive behaviour has intrapersonal, interpersonal, and organizational causes. While fewer than 10% of clinicians display disruptive behaviour, up to 98% of clinicians report witnessing disruptive behaviour in the last year, 70% report being treated with incivility, and 36% report being bullied. This type of conduct can have many negative ramifications for clinicians, students, and institutions. Although the evidence regarding patient outcomes is primarily based on clinician perceptions, anecdotes, and expert opinion, this evidence supports the contention of an increase in morbidity and mortality. The plausible mechanism for this increase is social undermining of teamwork, communication, clinical decision-making, and technical performance. The behavioural responses of those who are exposed to such conduct can positively or adversely moderate the consequences of disruptive behaviour. All operating room professions are involved, with the rank order (from high to low) being surgeons, nurses, anesthesiologists, and "others". The optimal approaches to the prevention and management of disruptive behaviour are uncertain, but they include preventative and professional development courses, training in soft skills and teamwork, institutional efforts to optimize the workplace, clinician contracts outlining the clinician's (and institution's) responsibilities, institutional policies that are monitored and

Energy supply. Energieversorgung

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eickhof, N.

1983-01-01

This anthology presents nine papers dealing with the following subjects: 1) international and national aspects of energy supply, 2) regional and local energy supply concepts, and 3) issues of district-heat supply. Each of the nine papers was entered separately.

Density turbulence and disruption phenomena in TEXTOR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waidmann, G.; Kuang, G.; Jadoul, M.

1992-01-01

Disruptive processes are observed in tokamak plasmas not only at the operating limits (density limit or q-limit) but can be found under a variety of experimental conditions. Large forces are exerted then on vessel components and support structures. The sudden release of stored plasma energy presents a serious erosion problem for the first wall already in the next generation of large tokamak machines. Strong energy losses from the plasma and an influx of impurities are already present in minor plasma disruptions which do not immediately lead to a plasma current termination. The rapid loss of energy confinement was investigated within the framework of a systematic study on plasma disruption phenomena in TEXTOR. (author) 4 refs., 4 figs

Dynamic shortest path problems : hybrid routing policies considering network disruptions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sever, D.; Dellaert, N.P.; Woensel, van T.; Kok, de A.G.

2013-01-01

Traffic network disruptions lead to significant increases in transportation costs. We consider networks in which a number of links are vulnerable to these disruptions leading to a significantly higher travel time on these links. For these vulnerable links, we consider known link disruption

Disruption avoidance by means of electron cyclotron waves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esposito, B; Granucci, G; Nowak, S; Lazzaro, E; Maraschek, M; Giannone, L; Gude, A; Igochine, V; McDermott, R; Poli, E; Reich, M; Sommer, F; Stober, J; Suttrop, W; Treutterer, W; Zohm, H

2011-01-01

Disruptions are very challenging to ITER operation as they may cause damage to plasma facing components due to direct plasma heating, forces on structural components due to halo and eddy currents and the production of runaway electrons. Electron cyclotron (EC) waves have been demonstrated as a tool for disruption avoidance by a large set of recent experiments performed in ASDEX Upgrade and FTU using various disruption types, plasma operating scenarios and power deposition locations. The technique is based on the stabilization of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modes (mainly m/n = 2/1) through the localized injection of EC power on the resonant surface. This paper presents new results obtained in ASDEX Upgrade regarding stable operation above the Greenwald density achieved after avoidance of density limit disruptions by means of ECRH and suitable density feedback control (L-mode ohmic plasmas, I p = 0.6 MA, B t = 2.5 T) and NTM-driven disruptions at high-β limit delayed/avoided by means of both co-current drive (co-ECCD) and pure heating (ECRH) with power ≤1.7 MW (H-mode NBI-heated plasmas, P NBI ∼ 7.5 MW, I p = 1 MA, B t = 2.1 T, q 95 ∼ 3.6). The localized perpendicular injection of ECRH/ECCD onto a resonant surface leads to the delay and/or complete avoidance of disruptions. The experiments indicate the existence of a power threshold for mode stabilization to occur. An analysis of the MHD mode evolution using the generalized Rutherford equation coupled to the frequency and phase evolution equations shows that control of the modes is due to EC heating close to the resonant surface. The ECRH contribution (Δ' H term) is larger than the co-ECCD one in the initial and more important phase when the discharge is 'saved'. Future research and developments of the disruption avoidance technique are also discussed.

Disruption Rose Tinted II

OpenAIRE

Livingstone, Andrew

2009-01-01

'Disruption - Rose Tinted II' continues to engage narratives of historical English china as previously explored in the work 'Rose Tinted'. This work engages the sleepy rural idyll which is overlaid with visual contemporary social commentary.

Sleep Disruption in Hematopoietic Cell Transplant Recipients: Prevalence, Severity, and Clinical Management

Science.gov (United States)

Jim, Heather S.L.; Evans, Bryan; Jeong, Jiyeon M.; Gonzalez, Brian D.; Johnston, Laura; Nelson, Ashley M.; Kesler, Shelli; Phillips, Kristin M.; Barata, Anna; Pidala, Joseph; Palesh, Oxana

2014-01-01

Sleep disruption is common among hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) recipients, with over 50% of patients experiencing sleep disruption pre-transplant, up to 82% experiencing moderate to severe sleep disruption during hospitalization for transplant, and up to 43% in the post-transplant period. These rates of sleep disruption are substantially higher than the general population. Although sleep disruption can be distressing to patients and contribute to diminished quality of life, it is rarely discussed during clinical visits. The goal of the current review is to draw attention to sleep disruption as a clinical problem in HCT in order to facilitate patient education, intervention, and research. The review opens with a discussion of sleep disruption measurement and clinical diagnosis of sleep disorders. An overview of the prevalence, severity, and chronicity of sleep disruption and disorders in patients receiving HCT follows. Current evidence regarding sociodemographic and clinical predictors of sleep disruption and disorders is summarized. The review concludes with suggestions for behavioral and pharmacologic management of sleep disruption and disorders as well as directions for future research. PMID:24747335

The Ed Tech Journey and a Future Driven by Disruptive Change

Science.gov (United States)

Grush, Mary, Ed.

2010-01-01

In this article, the author talks about the education technology journey and a future driven by disruptive change. The author first provides a definition of disruptive change. To understand the potential for disruptive change in higher education--a disruption fueled by technology and related trends--the author begins with a look at the past and…

Early Blood-Brain Barrier Disruption after Mechanical Thrombectomy in Acute Ischemic Stroke.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Zhong-Song; Duckwiler, Gary R; Jahan, Reza; Tateshima, Satoshi; Szeder, Viktor; Saver, Jeffrey L; Kim, Doojin; Sharma, Latisha K; Vespa, Paul M; Salamon, Noriko; Villablanca, J Pablo; Viñuela, Fernando; Feng, Lei; Loh, Yince; Liebeskind, David S

2018-05-01

The impact of blood-brain barrier (BBB) disruption can be detected by intraparenchymal hyperdense lesion on the computed tomography (CT) scan after endovascular stroke therapy. The purpose of this study was to determine whether early BBB disruption predicts intracranial hemorrhage and poor outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke treated with mechanical thrombectomy. We analyzed patients with anterior circulation stroke treated with mechanical thrombectomy and identified BBB disruption on the noncontrast CT images immediately after endovascular treatment. Follow-up CT or magnetic resonance imaging scan was performed at 24 hours to assess intracranial hemorrhage. We dichotomized patients into those with moderate BBB disruption versus those with minor BBB disruption and no BBB disruption. We evaluated the association of moderate BBB disruption after mechanical thrombectomy with intracranial hemorrhage and clinical outcomes. Moderate BBB disruption after mechanical thrombectomy was found in 56 of 210 patients (26.7%). Moderate BBB disruption was independently associated with higher rates of hemorrhagic transformation (OR 25.33; 95% CI 9.93-64.65; P disruption with intracranial hemorrhage remained in patients with successful reperfusion after mechanical thrombectomy. The location of BBB disruption was not associated with intracranial hemorrhage and poor outcome. Moderate BBB disruption is common after mechanical thrombectomy in a quarter of patients with acute ischemic stroke and increases the risk of intracranial hemorrhage and poor outcome. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Neuroimaging.

Architectures for Green-Field Supply Chain Integration: Supply Chain Integration Design

OpenAIRE

Radanliev, Petar

2015-01-01

This paper applied case study research to design architectures for green-field supply chain integration. The integration design is based on a case study of a supply chain integration of 5 companies, operating in different, but supply chain complimenting industry sectors. The case study research is applied to design and validate the architectures in a real world scenario. The supply\\ud chain integration architectures enable the conversion of individual into integrated strategies. The architect...

Pengukuran Kinerja Supply Chain Dengan Pendekatan Supply Chain Operation References (SCOR)

OpenAIRE

Rizki Wahyuniardi; Moh. Syarwani; Ryan Anggani

2017-01-01

PT. Brodo Ganesha Indonesia is a national company engaged in manufacturing with the production of leather shoes. The company has many stakeholders and it is difficult to manage its supply chain, thereby affecting the effectiveness and efficiency of the company's supply chains. The research was conducted to measure the performance of supply chain by using Supply Chain Operation References (SCOR) approach. The initial hierarchy model of performance measurement is tailored to the company's condi...

Strategy development for anticipating and handling a disruptive technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, Stephen

2006-10-01

The profession of radiology has greatly benefited from the introduction of new imaging technologies throughout its history. Therefore, it would seem reasonable for radiologists to believe that the emergence of a new imaging technology can generally be foreseen with sufficient advance notice to allow the appropriate levels of time, effort, and money to be devoted toward incorporating it into radiology practice. However, in his seminal work, Christiansen characterized a new form of technologic innovation, known as "disruptive technology," whose emergence often heralds the replacement of market leaders in an industry by competitors who are quicker in adopting and deploying the new technology. This article briefly describes the phenomenon of disruptive technology and addresses the challenges that organizations face in dealing with disruptive technology. The article raises 4 questions about the future of radiology: (1) Are health care and radiology vulnerable to disruptive technology? (2) What kinds of change may be in store for the radiology profession? (3) Can the radiology profession prepare itself to recognize and respond to a disruptive innovation among a group of new imaging technologies? and (4) How should a radiology organization decide whether to invest significant resources in a potentially disruptive technology? This article addresses these questions by reviewing key insights from leading "gurus" in the fields of competitive strategy and technology management and applying them to radiology. This illustrates how and why (despite past successes) the radiology profession may still have a blind spot in recognizing and handling disruptive technologies.

Sleep disruption among cancer patients following autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Ashley M; Jim, Heather S L; Small, Brent J; Nishihori, Taiga; Gonzalez, Brian D; Cessna, Julie M; Hyland, Kelly A; Rumble, Meredith E; Jacobsen, Paul B

2018-03-01

Despite a high prevalence of sleep disruption among hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) recipients, relatively little research has investigated its relationships with modifiable cognitive or behavioral factors or used actigraphy to characterize sleep disruption in this population. Autologous HCT recipients who were 6-18 months post transplant completed self-report measures of cancer-related distress, fear of cancer recurrence, dysfunctional sleep cognitions, and inhibitory sleep behaviors upon enrollment. Patients then wore an actigraph for 7 days and completed a self-report measure of sleep disruption on day 7 of the study. Among the 84 participants (age M = 60, 45% female), 41% reported clinically relevant sleep disruption. Examination of actigraph data confirmed that, on average, sleep was disrupted (wake after sleep onset M = 66 min) and sleep efficiency was less than recommended (sleep efficiency M = 78%). Cancer-related distress, fear of recurrence, dysfunctional sleep cognitions, and inhibitory sleep behaviors were related to self-reported sleep disruption (p valuesdisruption after transplant. Cancer-related distress, fear of recurrence, dysfunctional sleep cognitions, and maladaptive sleep behaviors are related to self-reported sleep disruption and should be considered targets for cognitive behavioral intervention in this population.

Pesticides Provoke Endocrine Disruption A Review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aly, M.A.S.

2006-01-01

Increasing numbers of environmental chemicals,including pesticides, have the ability to produce endocrine disruption by various mechanisms. such substances may affect hormone secretion from an endocrine gland and may alter the rate of hormone elimination from the body. environmental chemicals may also disrupt regulatory feedback mechanisms that exist between two endocrine organs; or may interact with a hormone receptor either by mimicking or antagonizing the actions of the natural hormone. these chemicals are referred to endocrine disruptive chemicals (EDC's). EDC's act to alter the blood hormone levels or the subsequent action of hormones . the use of radioimmunoassay(RIA) constitutes a superior and unrivalled tool for the determination and quantification of hormones.the endocrine system participates in virtually all important functions of an organism, such as sexual differentiation before birth, sexual maturation during puberty, reproduction in adulthood, growth, metabolism, digestion, cardiovascular function and excretion. hormones are also implicated in the etiology of certain cancers of hormone- dependent tissues, such as those of the breast, uterus, and prostate gland. therefore, endocrine disruption can potentially produce widespread effects. scientists should not stick to the past belief which presumes that pesticides have limited effect on some hormones. A paradigm shift in which a wider vision of understanding of the wholesome complex effects of pesticides on the whole body rather than a narrow limited understanding should take place

Sideways Force Produced During Disruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Strauss, H. R.; Paccagnella, R.; Breslau, J.; Jardin, S.; Sugiyama, L.

2012-10-01

We extend previous studies [1] of vertical displacement events (VDE) which can produce disruptions. The emphasis is on the non axisymmetric ``sideways'' wall force Fx. Simulations are performed using the M3D [2] code. A VDE expels magnetic flux through the resistive wall until the last closed flux surface has q VDE is presented. The wall force depends strongly on γτw, where γ is the mode growth rate and τw is the wall resistive penetration time. The force Fx is largest when γτw is a constant of order unity, which depends on the initial conditions. For large values of γτw, the wall force asymptotes to a relatively smaller value, well below the critical value ITER is designed to withstand. The principle of disruption mitigation by massive gas injection is to cause a disruption with large γτw. [4pt] [1] H. R. Strauss, R. Paccagnella, and J. Breslau,Phys. Plasmas 17, 082505 (2010) [2] W. Park, E.V. Belova, G.Y. Fu, X. Tang, H.R. Strauss, L.E. Sugiyama, Phys. Plasmas 6, 1796 (1999).

Supply chain integration and performance : the moderating effect of supply complexity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Giménez, C.; van der Vaart, T.; van Donk, D.P.

2012-01-01

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of supply chain integration in different contexts. More specifically, it aims to show that supply chain integration is only effective in buyer-supplier relationships characterised by high supply complexity.

Design of an X -band electron linear accelerator dedicated to decentralized 99Mo/99mTc supply: From beam energy selection to yield estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Jang, Jaewoong; Yamamoto, Masashi; Uesaka, Mitsuru

2017-10-01

The most frequently used radionuclide in diagnostic nuclear medicine, 99mTc, is generally obtained by the decay of its parent radionuclide, 99Mo. Recently, concerns have been raised over shortages of 99Mo/99mTc, owing to aging of the research reactors which have been supplying practically all of the global demand for 99Mo in a centralized fashion. In an effort to prevent such 99Mo/99mTc supply disruption and, furthermore, to ameliorate the underlying instability of the centralized 99Mo/99mTc supply chain, we designed an X -band electron linear accelerator which can be distributed over multiple regions, whereby 99Mo/99mTc can be supplied with improved accessibility. The electron beam energy was designed to be 35 MeV, at which an average beam power of 9.1 kW was calculated by the following beam dynamics analysis. Subsequent radioactivity modeling suggests that 11 of the designed electron linear accelerators can realize self-sufficiency of 99Mo/99mTc in Japan.

Design of an X-band electron linear accelerator dedicated to decentralized ^{99}Mo/^{99m}Tc supply: From beam energy selection to yield estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaewoong Jang

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The most frequently used radionuclide in diagnostic nuclear medicine, ^{99m}Tc, is generally obtained by the decay of its parent radionuclide, ^{99}Mo. Recently, concerns have been raised over shortages of ^{99}Mo/^{99m}Tc, owing to aging of the research reactors which have been supplying practically all of the global demand for ^{99}Mo in a centralized fashion. In an effort to prevent such ^{99}Mo/^{99m}Tc supply disruption and, furthermore, to ameliorate the underlying instability of the centralized ^{99}Mo/^{99m}Tc supply chain, we designed an X-band electron linear accelerator which can be distributed over multiple regions, whereby ^{99}Mo/^{99m}Tc can be supplied with improved accessibility. The electron beam energy was designed to be 35 MeV, at which an average beam power of 9.1 kW was calculated by the following beam dynamics analysis. Subsequent radioactivity modeling suggests that 11 of the designed electron linear accelerators can realize self-sufficiency of ^{99}Mo/^{99m}Tc in Japan.

The study of heat flux for disruption on experimental advanced superconducting tokamak

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Zhendong; Fang, Jianan; Gong, Xianzu; Gan, Kaifu; Luo, Jiarong; Zhao, Hailin; Cui, Zhixue; Zhang, Bin; Chen, Meiwen

2016-05-01

Disruption of the plasma is one of the most dangerous instabilities in tokamak. During the disruption, most of the plasma thermal energy is lost, which causes damages to the plasma facing components. Infrared (IR) camera is an effective tool to detect the temperature distribution on the first wall, and the energy deposited on the first wall can be calculated from the surface temperature profile measured by the IR camera. This paper concentrates on the characteristics of heat flux distribution onto the first wall under different disruptions, including the minor disruption and the vertical displacement events (VDE) disruption. Several minor disruptions have been observed before the major disruption under the high plasma density in experimental advanced superconducting tokamak. During the minor disruption, the heat fluxes are mainly deposited on the upper/lower divertors. The magnetic configuration prior to the minor disruption is a lower single null with the radial distance between the two separatrices in the outer midplane dRsep = -2 cm, while it changes to upper single null (dRsep = 1.4 cm) during the minor disruption. As for the VDE disruption, the spatial distribution of heat flux exhibits strong toroidal and radial nonuniformity, and the maximum heat flux received on the dome plate can be up to 11 MW/m2.

Visual observations of fuel disruption in in-pile LMFBR accident experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wright, S.A.; Mast, P.K.

1982-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories has been investigating initiation phase phenomena in a series of Fuel Disruption (FD) experiments since 1977. In this program high speed cinematography is used to observe fuel disruption in in-pile experiments that simulate loss of flow accidents. Thus, these experiments provide high resolution measurements of initial fuel and clad motion with prototypic materials and prototypic heating conditions. The main objective of the FD experiment is to determine the timing (relative to fuel temperature) and the mode of fuel disruption under LOF heating conditions. Observed modes of disruption include fuel swelling, solid state breakup, cracking, ejection of a molten fuel jet, slumping, and rapid expansion of small particles. Because the temperature and character of the fuel at disruption are known, disruption can be correlated with the mechanisms driving the disruption such as fuel vapor pressure, molten fuel expansion, fission gases, and impurity gases

Endotherapy is effective for pancreatic ductal disruption: A dual center experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Das, Rohit; Papachristou, Georgios I; Slivka, Adam; Easler, Jeffrey J; Chennat, Jennifer; Malin, Jessica; Herman, Justin B; Laique, Sobia N; Hayat, Umar; Ooi, Yinn Shaung; Rabinovitz, Mordechai; Yadav, Dhiraj; Siddiqui, Ali A

2016-01-01

Pancreatic duct (PD) disruptions occur as a result of different etiologies and can be managed medically, endoscopically, or surgically. The aim of this study was to provide an evaluation on the efficacy of endotherapy for treatment of PD disruption in a large cohort of patients and identify factors that predict successful treatment outcome. We retrospectively evaluated consecutive patients who underwent endoscopic retrograde pancreatography (ERP) for transpapillary pancreatic stent placement for PD disruption from 2008 to 2013 at two tertiary referral institutions. PD disruption was defined as extravasation of contrast from the pancreatic duct as seen on ERP. Therapeutic success was defined by resolution of PD leak on ERP, clinical, and/or imaging evaluation. We evaluated 107 patients (58% male, mean age 53 years) with PD disruption. Etiologies of PD disruption were acute pancreatitis (36%), post-operative (31%), chronic pancreatitis (29%), and trauma (4%). PD disruption was successfully bridged by a stent in 45 (44%) patients. Two patients developed post-sphincterotomy bleeding, two had stent migration, and two patients died as a result of post-ERP related complications. Placement of a PD stent was successful in 103/107 (96%) patients. Therapeutic success was achieved in 80/107 (75%) patients. Non-acute pancreatitis etiologies and absence of complete duct disruption were independent predictors of therapeutic success. Endoscopic therapy using a transpapillary stent for PD disruption is safe and effective. Absence of complete duct disruption and non-AP etiologies determine a favorable endoscopic outcome. Published by Elsevier India Pvt Ltd.

Critical thinking: assessing the risks to the future security of supply of critical metals

Science.gov (United States)

Gunn, Gus

2015-04-01

Increasing world population, the spread of prosperity across the globe and the demands of new technologies have led to a revival of concerns about the availability of raw materials needed by society. Despite scare stories about resource depletion, physical exhaustion of minerals is considered to be unlikely. However, we do need to know which materials might be of concern so that we can develop strategies to secure adequate supplies and to mitigate the effects of supply disruption. This requirement has led to renewed interest in criticality, a term that is generally used to refer to metals and minerals of high economic importance that have a relatively high likelihood of supply disruption. The European Union (EU) developed a quantitative methodology for the assessment of criticality which led to the definition of 14 raw materials as critical to the EU economy (EC, 2010). This has succeeded in raising awareness of potential supply issues and in helping to prioritise requirements for new policies and supporting research. The EU has recently assessed a larger number of candidate materials of which 20 are now identified as critical to the EU (EC, 2014). These include metals such as indium, mostly used in flat-screen displays, antimony for flame retardants and cobalt for rechargeable batteries, alloys and a host of other products. Although there is no consensus on the methodology for criticality assessments and broad analyses at this scale are inevitably imperfect, they can, nevertheless, provide early warning of supply problems. However, in order to develop more rigorous and dynamic assessments of future availability detailed analysis of the whole life-cycle of individual metals to identify specific problems and develop appropriate solutions is required. New policies, such as the Raw Materials Initiative (2008) and the European Innovation Partnership on Raw Materials (2013), have been developed by the European Commission (EC) and are aimed at securing sustainable

Parents’ Education, Personality, and Their Children’s Disruptive Behaviour

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Purwati

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The aims of this study were (1 to understand the effects of parents' education and personality aspects on child disruptive behavior, (2 to know the correlation between the parents' personality aspects (N-Deference, N-Succorance, NDominance and N-Aggression and the children' disruptive behavior. A quantitative approach to the correlational design was employed. Three variables were studied, namely parents' education and personality as the independent variables and child disruptive behavior as the independent variable. The applied instruments are questionnaires, (2 personality test (EPPS, and (3 observation with time and interval samplings approach. The population is from Magelang, Indonesia, while the participants are 100 children at the age of 5 – 7 years and their parents. The results show that (1 there are some effects of parents' education and personality on child disruptive behavior, and (2 aggressive aspects of the parents' personality gave great effects on child disruptive behavior, followed by the succorance, deference, and at the lowest level, the dominance aspects

Disruption generated secondary runaway electrons in present day tokamaks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pankratov, I.M.; Jaspers, R.

2000-01-01

An analysis of the runaway electron secondary generation during disruptions in present day tokamaks (JET, JT-60U, TEXTOR) was made. It was shown that even for tokamaks with the plasma current I approx 100 kA the secondary generation may dominate the runaway production during disruptions. In the same time in tokamaks with I approx 1 MA the runaway electron secondary generation during disruptions may be suppressed

Disruption of Trophic Inhibitory Signaling in Autism Sepctrum Disorders

Science.gov (United States)

2016-12-01

1 AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-14-1-0433 TITLE: Disruption of Trophic Inhibitory Signaling in Autism Sepctrum Disorders PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Anis...SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Disruption of Trophic Inhibitory Signaling in Autism Sepctrum Disorders 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-14-1-0433 5c. PROGRAM...chloride co-transporters that control EGABA could be used as a corrective strategy for the synaptic and circuit disruptions demonstrated in the

Development of a Simulation Framework for Analyzing Security of Supply in Integrated Gas and Electric Power Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kwabena Addo Pambour

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Gas and power networks are tightly coupled and interact with each other due to physically interconnected facilities. In an integrated gas and power network, a contingency observed in one system may cause iterative cascading failures, resulting in network wide disruptions. Therefore, understanding the impacts of the interactions in both systems is crucial for governments, system operators, regulators and operational planners, particularly, to ensure security of supply for the overall energy system. Although simulation has been widely used in the assessment of gas systems as well as power systems, there is a significant gap in simulation models that are able to address the coupling of both systems. In this paper, a simulation framework that models and simulates the gas and power network in an integrated manner is proposed. The framework consists of a transient model for the gas system and a steady state model for the power system based on AC-Optimal Power Flow. The gas and power system model are coupled through an interface which uses the coupling equations to establish the data exchange and coordination between the individual models. The bidirectional interlink between both systems considered in this studies are the fuel gas offtake of gas fired power plants for power generation and the power supply to liquefied natural gas (LNG terminals and electric drivers installed in gas compressor stations and underground gas storage facilities. The simulation framework is implemented into an innovative simulation tool named SAInt (Scenario Analysis Interface for Energy Systems and the capabilities of the tool are demonstrated by performing a contingency analysis for a real world example. Results indicate how a disruption triggered in one system propagates to the other system and affects the operation of critical facilities. In addition, the studies show the importance of using transient gas models for security of supply studies instead of successions of

Plasma-material interaction under simulated disruption conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arkhipov, N.I.; Bakhtin, V.P.; Safronov, V.M.; Toporkov, D.A.; Vasenin, S.G.; Wurz, H.; Zhitlukhin, A.M.

1995-01-01

Sudden evaporation of divertor plate surface under high heat load during tokamak plasma disruption instantaneously produces a vapor shield. The cloud of vaporized material prevents the divertor plates from the bulk of incoming energy flux and thus reduces the further material erosion. Dynamics and effectiveness of the vapor shield are studied experimentally at the 2MK-200 facility under simulated disruption conditions. (orig.)

Disruption mitigation experiment with massive gas injection of HT-7

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhuang Huidong; Zhang Xiaodong

2013-01-01

Massive gas injection (MGI) is a promising method on disruption mitigation. The working principle of the fast valve for disruption mitigation was introduced. The disruption mitigation experiments by MGI on HT-7 were described. The experiment shows that the impurities radiation is improved by injecting appropriate amount of gas, and the current quench rate is slow down, so the electromagnetic load on the device is mitigated. The experiments show that the fast valve can completely satisfy the requirement of disruption mitigation on HT-7. (authors)

Disruptive Mood Dysregulation Disorder

Science.gov (United States)

... Application Process Managing Grants Clinical Research Training Small Business Research Labs at NIMH Labs at NIMH Home Research ... Chat on Disruptive Mood Dysregulation Disorder (Archived Transcript) Research and ... Journal Articles: References and abstracts from MEDLINE/PubMed (National ...

Circadian Rhythm Disruption Promotes Lung Tumorigenesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Papagiannakopoulos, Thales; Bauer, Matthew R; Davidson, Shawn M; Heimann, Megan; Subbaraj, Lakshmipriya; Bhutkar, Arjun; Bartlebaugh, Jordan; Vander Heiden, Matthew G; Jacks, Tyler

2016-08-09

Circadian rhythms are 24-hr oscillations that control a variety of biological processes in living systems, including two hallmarks of cancer, cell division and metabolism. Circadian rhythm disruption by shift work is associated with greater risk for cancer development and poor prognosis, suggesting a putative tumor-suppressive role for circadian rhythm homeostasis. Using a genetically engineered mouse model of lung adenocarcinoma, we have characterized the effects of circadian rhythm disruption on lung tumorigenesis. We demonstrate that both physiologic perturbation (jet lag) and genetic mutation of the central circadian clock components decreased survival and promoted lung tumor growth and progression. The core circadian genes Per2 and Bmal1 were shown to have cell-autonomous tumor-suppressive roles in transformation and lung tumor progression. Loss of the central clock components led to increased c-Myc expression, enhanced proliferation, and metabolic dysregulation. Our findings demonstrate that both systemic and somatic disruption of circadian rhythms contribute to cancer progression. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Emotions, cognitive interference, and concentration disruption in youth sport.

Science.gov (United States)

McCarthy, Paul J; Allen, Mark S; Jones, Marc V

2013-01-01

We explored the relationship between emotions, cognitive interference, concentration disruption and performance in youth sport. In study 1, 150 youth sport athletes (Mage = 13.13 years, s = 1.79) completed measures of emotion, cognitive interference, and concentration disruption for their most recently completed competition. In Study 2, 46 female rhythmic gymnasts (Mage = 10.30 years, s = 1.74) completed measures of emotion immediately before competition, and measures of cognitive interference and concentration disruption immediately after competition. Study 1 showed that anxiety and dejection were associated with more interfering thoughts and greater disruptions in concentration, whereas the effects of anger and happiness on interfering thoughts differed relative to the age of participants. Specifically, anger was associated with more interfering thoughts only in younger athletes and happiness was associated with fewer interfering thoughts only in older athletes. Study 2 showed that emotions experienced before competition were not strongly associated with cognitive interference or concentration disruption, but athletes reporting more thoughts of escape in competition were less successful in the competition as measured by objective performance scores. These findings demonstrate that emotions are important for cognitive interference and concentration disruption, and provide some initial evidence that cognitive interference is important for performance in youth sport.

Liposome Disruption Assay to Examine Lytic Properties of Biomolecules.

Science.gov (United States)

Jimah, John R; Schlesinger, Paul H; Tolia, Niraj H

2017-08-05

Proteins may have three dimensional structural or amino acid features that suggest a role in targeting and disrupting lipids within cell membranes. It is often necessary to experimentally investigate if these proteins and biomolecules are able to disrupt membranes in order to conclusively characterize the function of these biomolecules. Here, we describe an in vitro assay to evaluate the membrane lytic properties of proteins and biomolecules. Large unilamellar vesicles (liposomes) containing carboxyfluorescein at fluorescence-quenching concentrations are treated with the biomolecule of interest. A resulting increase in fluorescence due to leakage of the dye from liposomes and subsequent dilution in the buffer demonstrates that the biomolecule is sufficient for disrupting liposomes and membranes. Additionally, since liposome disruption may occur via pore-formation or via general solubilization of lipids similar to detergents, we provide a method to distinguish between these two mechanisms. Pore-formation can be identified and evaluated by examining the blockade of carboxyfluorescein release with dextran molecules that fit the pore. The methods described here were used to determine that the malaria vaccine candidate CelTOS and proapoptotic Bax disrupt liposomes by pore formation (Saito et al. , 2000; Jimah et al. , 2016). Since membrane lipid binding by a biomolecule precedes membrane disruption, we recommend the companion protocol: Jimah et al. , 2017.

Disrupting Law School: How Disruptive Innovation Will Revolutionize the Legal World

Science.gov (United States)

Pistone, Michele R.; Horn, Michael B.

2016-01-01

Facing dramatic declines in enrollment, revenue, and student quality at the same time that their cost structure continues to rise and public support has waned, law schools are in crisis. A key driver of the crisis is shrinking employment opportunities for recent graduates, which stem in part from the disruption of the traditional business model…

Challenges in assessment of clean energy supply-chains based on byproduct minerals: A case study of tellurium use in thin film photovoltaics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bustamante, Michele L.; Gaustad, Gabrielle

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Byproduct mining presents unique challenges to quantifying energy security issues. • This case study shows Te scarcity is closely tied to Cu demand and production. • Material intensity changes over time have a significant impact on projections. • Recycling as a mitigation strategy is shown to have poor short-term results. - Abstract: Transitioning to a sustainable energy supply will be critical to meeting future economic and environmental goals. This transition will require optimizing and commercializing a portfolio of new clean energy technologies. However, many promising clean energy technologies are based on materials with inherent risks in their supply; these risks include scarcity, price volatility, criticality, and other potential supply-chain disruptions. Using tellurium use in CdTe photovoltaics as a case study, this paper presents analysis of some of the key challenges associated with modeling byproduct systems (a supply-chain where a key material is actually a byproduct of extraction of another material, copper in the case of tellurium). This work presents a novel modeling approach; the results of the case study are used to identify potential supply risks facing this clean technology, with a unique focus on sensitivity to changes in the preliminary lifecycle stages. Supply-chain sensitivities are connected with direct environmental impacts to frame the implications in a broader sustainability context and to emphasize the future role of recycling. Ultimately, it was shown that if historical supply and demand trends continue, supply gap conditions will emerge before the end of the current decade. However, improvements in byproduct yield, end-use recycling rate, and end-use material intensity exhibit significant leverage to minimize risk in the energy-critical tellurium supply-chain

The study of heat flux for disruption on experimental advanced superconducting tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Zhendong; Fang, Jianan; Luo, Jiarong; Cui, Zhixue; Gong, Xianzu; Gan, Kaifu; Zhao, Hailin; Zhang, Bin; Chen, Meiwen

2016-01-01

Disruption of the plasma is one of the most dangerous instabilities in tokamak. During the disruption, most of the plasma thermal energy is lost, which causes damages to the plasma facing components. Infrared (IR) camera is an effective tool to detect the temperature distribution on the first wall, and the energy deposited on the first wall can be calculated from the surface temperature profile measured by the IR camera. This paper concentrates on the characteristics of heat flux distribution onto the first wall under different disruptions, including the minor disruption and the vertical displacement events (VDE) disruption. Several minor disruptions have been observed before the major disruption under the high plasma density in experimental advanced superconducting tokamak. During the minor disruption, the heat fluxes are mainly deposited on the upper/lower divertors. The magnetic configuration prior to the minor disruption is a lower single null with the radial distance between the two separatrices in the outer midplane dR_s_e_p = −2 cm, while it changes to upper single null (dR_s_e_p = 1.4 cm) during the minor disruption. As for the VDE disruption, the spatial distribution of heat flux exhibits strong toroidal and radial nonuniformity, and the maximum heat flux received on the dome plate can be up to 11 MW/m"2.

Pengukuran Kinerja Supply Chain Dengan Pendekatan Supply Chain Operation References (SCOR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rizki Wahyuniardi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available PT. Brodo Ganesha Indonesia is a national company engaged in manufacturing with the production of leather shoes. The company has many stakeholders and it is difficult to manage its supply chain, thereby affecting the effectiveness and efficiency of the company's supply chains. The research was conducted to measure the performance of supply chain by using Supply Chain Operation References (SCOR approach. The initial hierarchy model of performance measurement is tailored to the company's condition to measure its supply chain performance, while the normalization of Snorm De Boer serves to equalize the value of the matrix used as the measurement indicator. The level of importance of performance attributes is measured by weighting with subjective questionnaires. Value of performance attribute obtained reliability 19,74, responsiveness 16,91, agility 11,00; and asset management 12.26. The total performance score of 59.90. This value indicates that the performance of the supply chain is in an average position.

An assessment of disruption erosion in ITER environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hassanein, A.; Konkashbaev, I.

1994-01-01

The behavior of divertor materials during a major disruption in ITER is very important for the successful and reliable operation of the reactor. Erosion of material surfaces due to the thermal energy dump can severely limit the lifetime of the plasma facing components therefore degrading reactor economic feasibility. A comprehensive numerical model recently developed is used in this analysis in which all major physical processes taking place during plasma-material interactions are included. Models to account for material thermal evolution, plasma-vapor interaction physics, and models for hydrodynamic radiation transport in the developed vapor cloud are implemented in a self-consistent manner to realistically assess the disruption damage. The extent of the self-protection from the developed vapor cloud in front of the incoming plasma particles is critically important in determining the overall disruption lifetime. The aim of this study is to estimate the divertor lifetime for a range of reactor conditions. Candidate materials such as beryllium and graphite are both considered in this analysis. The dependence of the divertor disruption lifetime on the characteristics of plasma-vapor interaction zone for incident plasma ions and electrons is analyzed and discussed. The effect of uncertainties in reactor disruption conditions on the overall divertor erosion lifetime is also analyzed

Performance comparisons of enhanced tubes with discrete and wavy disruption shapes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arman, B.; Rabas, T.J.

1993-08-01

This paper presents comparisons of the friction factors and heat-transfer coefficients obtained with enhanced tubes with transverse discrete and almost transverse wavy two-dimensional disruptions. Both experimental data and numerical predictions were used for the comparisons. For the latter a two-layer turbulence model incorporated in a body-fitted, finite-volume method was used. The disruption shape, discrete or wavy, depends on the manufacturing process. If an extrusion process is used, discrete disruptions (ribs) of various profiles are obtained that are separated from each other by a flat or unaltered inside diameter. If a spirally indenting process is used, a wavy proflie is obtained with a continuously varying inside diameter between two adjacent disruption peaks. These disruptions are transverse or almost transverse to the tube axis and separated by a distance that exceeds the reattachment length. Based on these comparisons, the following conclusions are obtained: (1) the disruption shape is not an important correlating parameter for discrete disruptions, (2) only the friction factor is influenced by the shape for wavy disruptions, and (3) there are major differences between both the friction-factor and heat-transfer performance of discrete and wavy disruptions with the same maximum disruption height and spacing. However, the most important finding is that the groove radius of spirally indented tubes should be increased because of the substantial reduction of the friction factor but only a small decrease in the thermal performance. Additional comparisons of predicted results were made to obtain a fundamental understanding of the influence of these different shapes.

Climate change risks and adaptation options across Australian seafood supply chains – A preliminary assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Fleming

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change is already impacting the biology of the oceans and some dependent industries are in turn responding to these impacts. The development of response options for users of marine resources, such as fishers, is important in guiding adaptation efforts. However, harvesting fish is only the first step in a supply chain that delivers seafood to consumers. Impacts higher up the chain have seldom been considered in fisheries-climate research yet an understanding of these impacts and how climate risks and adaptation information are interpreted and used by stakeholders across the chain is vital for developing viable and sustainable adaptation options. We examined stakeholder perceptions of points where climate change impacts and adaptations currently occur, or may occur in the future, across the supply chains of several Australian fisheries (southern rock lobster, tropical rock lobster, prawn and aquaculture sectors (oyster, aquaculture prawn. We found that climate change impacts are well understood at the harvest stage and there is evidence of potential impacts and disruption to supply chains. Yet, there currently is no strong driver for change higher up the chain. Holistic adaptation planning along the supply chain, underpinned by targeted information and policy for the catch, processing and distribution, and marketing phases is needed. This effort is needed now, as some adaptation options have long lead times, and a delay in adaptation planning may limit future options. Given potential lead times and associated uncertainty, a risk-based approach is recommended with regard to adaptation planning for Australia’s seafood sector.

Estimates of water source contributions in a dynamic urban water supply system inferred via a Bayesian stable isotope mixing model

Science.gov (United States)

Jameel, M. Y.; Brewer, S.; Fiorella, R.; Tipple, B. J.; Bowen, G. J.; Terry, S.

2017-12-01

Public water supply systems (PWSS) are complex distribution systems and critical infrastructure, making them vulnerable to physical disruption and contamination. Exploring the susceptibility of PWSS to such perturbations requires detailed knowledge of the supply system structure and operation. Although the physical structure of supply systems (i.e., pipeline connection) is usually well documented for developed cities, the actual flow patterns of water in these systems are typically unknown or estimated based on hydrodynamic models with limited observational validation. Here, we present a novel method for mapping the flow structure of water in a large, complex PWSS, building upon recent work highlighting the potential of stable isotopes of water (SIW) to document water management practices within complex PWSS. We sampled a major water distribution system of the Salt Lake Valley, Utah, measuring SIW of water sources, treatment facilities, and numerous sites within in the supply system. We then developed a hierarchical Bayesian (HB) isotope mixing model to quantify the proportion of water supplied by different sources at sites within the supply system. Known production volumes and spatial distance effects were used to define the prior probabilities for each source; however, we did not include other physical information about the supply system. Our results were in general agreement with those obtained by hydrodynamic models and provide quantitative estimates of contributions of different water sources to a given site along with robust estimates of uncertainty. Secondary properties of the supply system, such as regions of "static" and "dynamic" source (e.g., regions supplied dominantly by one source vs. those experiencing active mixing between multiple sources), can be inferred from the results. The isotope-based HB isotope mixing model offers a new investigative technique for analyzing PWSS and documenting aspects of supply system structure and operation that are