WorldWideScience

Sample records for superfund risk assessment

  1. Issuance of Final Guidance: Ecological Risk Assessment and Risk Management Principles for Superfund Sites, October 7, 1999

    Science.gov (United States)

    This guidance is intended to help Superfund risk managers make ecological risk management decisions that are based on sound science, consistent across Regions, and present a characterization of site risks that is transparent to the public.

  2. Environmental Asbestos Assessment Manual Superfund Method for the Determination of Asbestos in Ambient Air Part 2: Technical Background Document

    Science.gov (United States)

    A sampling and analysis method for the determination of asbestos in air is presented in Part 1 of this report, under separate cover. This method is designed specifically to provide results suitable for supporting risk assessments at Superfund sites, although it is applicable t...

  3. Biota Modeling in EPA's Preliminary Remediation Goal and Dose Compliance Concentration Calculators for Use in EPA Superfund Risk Assessment: Explanation of Intake Rate Derivation, Transfer Factor Compilation, and Mass Loading Factor Sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manning, Karessa L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Dolislager, Fredrick G. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Bellamy, Michael B. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-11-01

    The Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) calculators are screening level tools that set forth Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) recommended approaches, based upon currently available information with respect to risk assessment, for response actions at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites, commonly known as Superfund. The screening levels derived by the PRG and DCC calculators are used to identify isotopes contributing the highest risk and dose as well as establish preliminary remediation goals. Each calculator has a residential gardening scenario and subsistence farmer exposure scenarios that require modeling of the transfer of contaminants from soil and water into various types of biota (crops and animal products). New publications of human intake rates of biota; farm animal intakes of water, soil, and fodder; and soil to plant interactions require updates be implemented into the PRG and DCC exposure scenarios. Recent improvements have been made in the biota modeling for these calculators, including newly derived biota intake rates, more comprehensive soil mass loading factors (MLFs), and more comprehensive soil to tissue transfer factors (TFs) for animals and soil to plant transfer factors (BV's). New biota have been added in both the produce and animal products categories that greatly improve the accuracy and utility of the PRG and DCC calculators and encompass greater geographic diversity on a national and international scale.

  4. Characterization of ecological risks at the Milltown Reservoir-Clark Fork River Sediments Superfund Site, Montana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pascoe, Gary A.; Blanchet, Richard J.; Linder, Greg L.; Palawski, Don; Brumbaugh, William G.; Canfield, Tim J.; Kemble, Nile E.; Ingersoll, Chris G.; Farag, Aïda M.; DalSoglio, Julie A.

    1994-01-01

    A comprehensive field and laboratory approach to the ecological risk assessment for the Milltown Reservoir-Clark Fork River Sediments Site, a Superfund site in the Rocky Mountains of Montana, has been described in the preceding reports of this series. The risk assessment addresses concerns over the ecological impacts of upstream releases of mining wastes to fisheries of the upper Clark Fork River (CFR) and the benthic and terrestrial habitats further downstream in Milltown Reservoir. The risk characterization component of the process integrated results from a triad of information sources: (a) chemistry studies of environmental media to identify and quantify exposures of terrestrial and aquatic organisms to site-related contaminants; (b) ecological or population studies of terrestrial vegetation, birds, benthic communities, and fish; and (c) in situ and laboratory toxicity studies with terrestrial and aquatic invertebrates and plants, small mammals, amphibians, and fish exposed to contaminated surface water, sediments, wetland soils, and food sources. Trophic transfer studies were performed on waterfowl, mammals, and predatory birds using field measurement data on metals concentrations in environmental media and lower trophic food sources. Studies with sediment exposures were incorporated into the Sediment Quality Triad approach to evaluate risks to benthic ecology. Overall results of the wetland and terrestrial studies suggested that acute adverse biological effects were largely absent from the wetland; however, adverse effects to reproductive, growth, and physiological end points of various terrestrial and aquatic species were related to metals exposures in more highly contaminated depositional areas. Feeding studies with contaminated diet collected from the upper CFR indicated that trout are at high risk from elevated metals concentrations in surface water, sediment, and aquatic invertebrates. Integration of chemical analyses with toxicological and ecological

  5. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107......). All patients were assessed for risk of future violence utilizing a structured professional judgment model: the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) violence risk assessment scheme. After a follow-up period of 5.6 years, recidivism outcome were obtained from the Danish National Crime...... predictive of violent recidivism compared to static items. In sum, the findings support the use of structured professional judgment models of risk assessment and in particular the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme. Findings regarding the importance of the (clinical) structured final risk judgment...

  6. Superfund Query

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Superfund Query allows users to retrieve data from the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Information System (CERCLIS) database.

  7. Risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gittus, J.H.

    1986-03-01

    The article deals with the calculation of risks, as applied to living near to a) a nuclear reactor or b) an industrial complex. The application of risk assessment techniques to the pressurised water reactor (PWR) is discussed with respect to: containment, frequencies of degraded core accidents, release of radioisotopes, consequences and risk to society, and uncertainties. The risk assessment for an industrial complex concerns the work of the Safety and Reliability Directorate for the chemical complex on Canvey Island. (U.K.).

  8. Fishing a superfund site: Dissonance and risk perception of environmental hazards by fishermen in Puerto Rico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burger, J.; Gochfeld, M. (Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ (USA))

    1991-06-01

    Risk perception studies show that individuals tend to underestimate significant risks, overestimate negligible ones, and distrust authorities. They also rely on a variety of strategies or heuristics to reach decisions regarding their risk-taking behavior. The authors report on a survey of fishermen and crabbers engaged in recreational and substance fishing in a Puerto Rican estuary (near Humacao), which has been declared a Superfund site because of suspected contamination by mercury, and at ecologically similar control sites. Nearly everyone interviewed at the Humacao site was aware of the mercury contamination, but either denied its importance, believed the contamination was restricted to a distant part of the estuary, or assumed that the estuary would be closed by the authorities if the threat was real. All site-users consumed the fish and crabs they caught. At Humacao, the average catch was 7 fish per fishermen (mostly tilapia, Tilapia mossambica, and tarpon, Megalops atlantica) and 13 crabs per crabber (all blue crabs, Callinectes sapidus). On average, the site-users returned to the lagoons about 3-4 times per month. At control sites, fewer fish were eaten. The worst case consumption of tarpon, a species which concentrated mercury at Eastern Puerto Rico, provided an exposure exceeding the EPA reference dose, whereas consumption of one tarpon per week did not entail excess exposure. Fortunately, few individuals caught tarpon exclusively. Unlike counterparts in the northeastern United States, they trusted authorities and indicated that they would have heeded warnings of mercury contamination posted where they fished.

  9. Aquatic assessment of the Ely Copper Mine Superfund site, Vershire, Vermont

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seal, Robert R.; Kiah, Richard G.; Piatak, Nadine M.; Besser, John M.; Coles, James F.; Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Argue, Denise M.; Levitan, Denise M.; Deacon, Jeffrey R.; Ingersoll, Christopher G.

    2010-01-01

    The Ely Mine, which operated from 1821 to 1905, and its area of downstream impact constitute the Ely Copper Mine Superfund site. The site was placed on the National Priorities List in 2001. The mine comprises underground workings, foundations from historical structures, several waste-rock piles, roast beds associated with the smelting operation, and slag piles resulting from the smelting. The mine site is drained by Ely Brook, which includes several tributaries, one of which drains a series of six ponds. Ely Brook empties into Schoolhouse Brook, which flows 3.3 kilometers and joins the Ompompanoosuc River.

  10. Superfund: Interagency Agreements and Improved Project Management Needed to Achieve Cleanup Progress at Key Defense Installations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    Superfund completing the remedial investigation, which would include a human and ecological risk assessment , feasibility study, proposed plan...EPA said that a human and ecological risk assessment —which would estimate how threatening a hazardous waste site is to human health and the

  11. Aquatic assessment of the Pike Hill Copper Mine Superfund site, Corinth, Vermont

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piatak, Nadine M.; Argue, Denise M.; Seal, Robert R.; Kiah, Richard G.; Besser, John M.; Coles, James F.; Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Levitan, Denise M.; Deacon, Jeffrey R.; Ingersoll, Christopher G.

    2013-01-01

    The Pike Hill Copper Mine Superfund site in Corinth, Orange County, Vermont, includes the Eureka, Union, and Smith mines along with areas of downstream aquatic ecosystem impairment. The site was placed on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) National Priorities List in 2004. The mines, which operated from about 1847 to 1919, contain underground workings, foundations from historical structures, several waste-rock piles, and some flotation tailings. The mine site is drained to the northeast by Pike Hill Brook, which includes several wetland areas, and to the southeast by an unnamed tributary that flows to the south and enters Cookville Brook. Both brooks eventually drain into the Waits River, which flows into the Connecticut River. The aquatic ecosystem at the site was assessed using a variety of approaches that investigated surface-water quality, sediment quality, and various ecological indicators of stream-ecosystem health. The degradation of surface-water quality is caused by elevated concentrations of copper, and to a lesser extent cadmium, with localized effects caused by aluminum, iron, and zinc. Copper concentrations in surface waters reached or exceeded the USEPA national recommended chronic water-quality criteria for the protection of aquatic life in all of the Pike Hill Brook sampling locations except for the location farthest downstream, in half of the locations sampled in the tributary to Cookville Brook, and in about half of the locations in one wetland area located in Pike Hill Brook. Most of these same locations also contained concentrations of cadmium that exceeded the chronic water-quality criteria. In contrast, surface waters at background sampling locations were below these criteria for copper and cadmium. Comparison of hardness-based and Biotic Ligand Model (BLM)-based criteria for copper yields similar results with respect to the extent or number of stations impaired for surface waters in the affected area. However, the BLM

  12. Air-water exchange of PAHs and OPAHs at a superfund mega-site.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tidwell, Lane G; Blair Paulik, L; Anderson, Kim A

    2017-12-15

    Chemical fate is a concern at environmentally contaminated sites, but characterizing that fate can be difficult. Identifying and quantifying the movement of chemicals at the air-water interface are important steps in characterizing chemical fate. Superfund sites are often suspected sources of air pollution due to legacy sediment and water contamination. A quantitative assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and oxygenated PAH (OPAHs) diffusive flux in a river system that contains a Superfund Mega-site, and passes through residential, urban and agricultural land, has not been reported before. Here, passive sampling devices (PSDs) were used to measure 60 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and 22 oxygenated PAH (OPAHs) in air and water. From these concentrations the magnitude and direction of contaminant flux between these two compartments was calculated. The magnitude of PAH flux was greater at sites near or within the Superfund Mega-site than outside of the Superfund Mega-site. The largest net individual PAH deposition at a single site was naphthalene at a rate of -14,200 (±5780) (ng/m(2))/day. The estimated one-year total flux of phenanthrene was -7.9×10(5) (ng/m(2))/year. Human health risk associated with inhalation of vapor phase PAHs and dermal exposure to PAHs in water were assessed by calculating benzo[a]pyrene equivalent concentrations. Excess lifetime cancer risk estimates show potential increased risk associated with exposure to PAHs at sites within and in close proximity to the Superfund Mega-site. Specifically, estimated excess lifetime cancer risk associated with dermal exposure and inhalation of PAHs was above 1 in 1 million within the Superfund Mega-site. The predominant depositional flux profile observed in this study suggests that the river water in this Superfund site is largely a sink for airborne PAHs, rather than a source. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. SUPERFUND CLEANUPS AND INFANT HEALTH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, Janet; Greenstone, Michael; Moretti, Enrico

    2013-01-01

    We are the first to examine the effect of Superfund cleanups on infant health rather than focusing on proximity to a site. We study singleton births to mothers residing within 5km of a Superfund site between 1989–2003 in five large states. Our “difference in differences” approach compares birth outcomes before and after a site clean-up for mothers who live within 2,000 meters of the site and those who live between 2,000– 5,000 meters of a site. We find that proximity to a Superfund site before cleanup is associated with a 20 to 25% increase in the risk of congenital anomalies. PMID:25152535

  14. Risk Communication, Metacommunication, and Rhetorical Stases in the Aspen-EPA Superfund Controversy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stratman, James F.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    Explores the relationship between current theoretical definitions of risk communication, the unique national role that EPA plays in defining health and environmental risks, and possible explanations for EPA's inability to persuade Aspen, Colorado, to accept a cleanup plan. Explores ownership messages conveyed through metacommunication conflict…

  15. Application of geostatistics to risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thayer, William C; Griffith, Daniel A; Goodrum, Philip E; Diamond, Gary L; Hassett, James M

    2003-10-01

    Geostatistics offers two fundamental contributions to environmental contaminant exposure assessment: (1) a group of methods to quantitatively describe the spatial distribution of a pollutant and (2) the ability to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration by exploiting the geospatial information present in the data. The second contribution is particularly valuable when exposure estimates must be derived from small data sets, which is often the case in environmental risk assessment. This article addresses two topics related to the use of geostatistics in human and ecological risk assessments performed at hazardous waste sites: (1) the importance of assessing model assumptions when using geostatistics and (2) the use of geostatistics to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration (EPC) in the limited data scenario. The latter topic is approached here by comparing design-based estimators that are familiar to environmental risk assessors (e.g., Land's method) with geostatistics, a model-based estimator. In this report, we summarize the basics of spatial weighting of sample data, kriging, and geostatistical simulation. We then explore the two topics identified above in a case study, using soil lead concentration data from a Superfund site (a skeet and trap range). We also describe several areas where research is needed to advance the use of geostatistics in environmental risk assessment.

  16. Using a triad approach in the assessment of hazardous waste site leaching from a Superfund site to an adjacent stream

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leppanen, C.J. [Univ. of Maine, Orono, ME (United States). Dept. of Biochemistry, Microbiology, and Molecular Biology; Blanner, P.M.; Allan, R.S.; Maier, K.J. [Univ. of Memphis, TN (United States); Benson, W.H. [Univ. of Mississippi, University, MS (United States)

    1998-10-01

    A triad approach was used in the evaluation of sediment in the Wolf River adjacent to the North Hollywood Dump, a federally listed Superfund site. Chemical analyses were done for 18 organochlorine pesticides, 21 polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners, and 10 metals. Sediment toxicity was evaluated with freshwater invertebrates. Chironomus tentans and Hyalella azteca. Benthic macroinvertebrate diversity and abundance were assessed with a family-level biotic index. Mean Al, Ba, Cd, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb, and Zn concentrations were significantly higher in sediments collected in the spring. Both spring and fall sediments exhibited toxicity downstream from, adjacent to, and upstream from the dump, with toxicity significantly higher in fall sediments; however, a consistent trend was not observed. Toxicity was typically greater in the fall, and metal concentrations were typically higher in spring sediments, suggesting that metals were not responsible for the toxicity. Sediment-associated organochlorine pesticide and PCB congener concentrations were all below detectable limits, suggesting that these potential contaminants are not contributing to the observed toxicity. No differences were found in benthic macroinvertebrate community structure, which was composed of predominantly pollution-tolerant families, among seasons or river reaches, which appear to be limited by the physical characteristics of the river. Sediments in urban reaches of the Wolf River appear to be degraded; the North Hollywood Dump cannot be isolated as a source of toxicity in this study. In situ testing, sediment toxicity identification and evaluation testing, acid-volatile sulfide analyses, or artificial substrate work would be appropriate to follow.

  17. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-03-01

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ``baseline`` risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site.

  18. Pipeline risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kariyawasam, S. [TransCanada PipeLines Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada); Weir, D. [Enbridge Pipelines Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)] (comps.)

    2009-07-01

    Risk assessments and risk analysis are system-wide activities that include site-specific risk and reliability-based decision-making, implementation, and monitoring. This working group discussed the risk management process in the pipeline industry, including reliability-based integrity management and risk control processes. Attendants at the group discussed reliability-based decision support and performance measurements designed to support corporate risk management policies. New developments and technologies designed to optimize risk management procedures were also presented. The group was divided into 3 sessions: (1) current practice, strengths and limitations of system-wide risk assessments for facility assets; (2) accounting for uncertainties to assure safety; and (3) reliability based excavation repair criteria and removing potentially unsafe corrosion defects. Presentations of risk assessment procedures used at various companies were given. The role of regulators, best practices, and effective networking environments in ensuring the success of risk assessment policies was discussed. Risk assessment models were also reviewed.

  19. How information resources are used by federal agencies in risk assessment application: Rapporteur summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fenner-Crisp, P. [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)

    1990-12-31

    The application of information available for risk assessment from the federal perspective is described. Different federal agencies conduct varying degrees of hazard evaluation, and some also generate empirical data. The role of the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry in hazard assessments of potential public health impacts of Superfund sites includes identification of the 275 most significant substances. ATSDR is responsible for preparing toxicological profiles. ATSDR also identifies data gaps and needs critical to adequately assessing human health impacts.

  20. ASSESSMENT OF VAPOR INTRUSION IN HOMES NEAR THE RAYMARK SUPERFUND SITE USING BASEMENT AND SUB-SLAB AIR SAMPLES

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report describes the results of an investigation conducted to assist EPA’s New England Regional Office in evaluating vapor intrusion at 15 homes and one commercial building near the Raymark Superfund Site in Stratford, Connecticut. Methods were developed to sample sub-slab ...

  1. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  2. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  3. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoornstra, E; Notermans, S

    2001-05-21

    The production of safe food is being increasingly based on the use of risk analysis, and this process is now in use to establish national and international food safety objectives. It is also being used more frequently to guarantee that safety objectives are met and that such guarantees are achieved in a cost-effective manner. One part of the overall risk analysis procedure-risk assessment-is the scientific process in which the hazards and risk factors are identified, and the risk estimate or risk profile is determined. Risk assessment is an especially important tool for governments when food safety objectives have to be developed in the case of 'new' contaminants in known products or known contaminants causing trouble in 'new' products. Risk assessment is also an important approach for food companies (i) during product development, (ii) during (hygienic) process optimalization, and (iii) as an extension (validation) of the more qualitative HACCP-plan. This paper discusses these two different types of risk assessment, and uses probability distribution functions to assess the risks posed by Escherichia coli O157:H7 in each case. Such approaches are essential elements of risk management, as they draw on all available information to derive accurate and realistic estimations of the risk posed. The paper also discusses the potential of scenario-analysis in simulating the impact of different or modified risk factors during the consideration of new or improved control measures.

  4. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  5. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  6. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  7. Screening-Level Risk Assessment for Styrene-Acrylonitrile (SAN) Trimer Detected in Soil and Groundwater

    OpenAIRE

    Kirman, C. R.; Gargas, M L; Collins, J. J.; Rowlands, J. C.

    2012-01-01

    A screening-level risk assessment was conducted for styrene-acrylonitrile (SAN) Trimer detected at the Reich Farm Superfund site in Toms River, NJ. Consistent with a screening-level approach, on-site and off-site exposure scenarios were evaluated using assumptions that are expected to overestimate actual exposures and hazards at the site. Environmental sampling data collected for soil and groundwater were used to estimate exposure point concentrations. Several exposure scenarios were evaluate...

  8. Wetlands in the ecological risk assessment process: A case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saban, L.B. [Roy F. Weston, Inc., Seattle, WA (United States)

    1995-12-31

    In the past few years, the ecological risk assessment (ERA) process as outlined in the EPA document Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment has been successfully used to assess risk to birds, mammals, aquatic organisms, plants, and to a limited extent, reptiles and amphibians, but has only recently been applied to wetlands. Due to the unique role that wetlands play in the environment as sources and sinks for nutrients, sediment retention, high productivity, habitat transition zones, aquifer recharge, high diversity and richness of biota, and aesthetic value, it is important to consider the entire wetland system in the ERA process. Because nearly sixty percent of Superfund sites are located in or near wetlands, a comprehensive approach is proposed to evaluate potential risks to flora and fauna in these wetland environments. Using the delineation and functional assessment techniques developed by wetland scientists, an estuarine wetland in western Washington was evaluated within the scope of ERA`S. The ERA was applied to the wetland using functional assessments as an integral part of the problem formulation phase of the risk assessment process. Applying the ERA process to wetlands enhances the functional assessment process and helps to define critical elements to evaluate within wetland systems. The results of this risk assessment help to define patches within a landscape that are potentially at risk and how to prioritize remedial actions.

  9. Superfund Site Information

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This asset includes a number of individual data sets related to site-specific information for Superfund, which is governed under the Comprehensive Environmental...

  10. Superfund Technical Assistance Grants

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This asset includes data related to the Superfund Technical Assistance Grant program, including grant number, award amounts, award dates, period of performance,...

  11. Landslide risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  12. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... for prediction purposes, as measured until now in the literature, is at best questionable in schoolchildren, adolescents and adults. That is not to say these additional factors should not be assessed to help understand the strength of their associations with the disease experience in a particular patient......, and aid in the development of an individualized and targeted preventive and management plan....

  13. Cardiac Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Risk Assessment Related tests: Lipid Profile , VLDL Cholesterol , hs-CRP , Lp(a) Overview | Common Questions | Related Pages What ... cardiac risk include: High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) : Studies have shown that measuring CRP with a ...

  14. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  15. Biomonitoring for metal contamination near two Superfund sites in Woburn, Massachusetts, using phytochelatins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gawel, James E.; Hemond, Harold F

    2004-09-01

    Characterizing the spatial extent of groundwater metal contamination traditionally requires installing sampling wells, an expensive and time-consuming process in urban areas. Moreover, extrapolating biotic effects from metal concentrations alone is problematic, making ecological risk assessment difficult. Our study is the first to examine the use of phytochelatin measurements in tree leaves for delimiting biological metal stress in shallow, metal-contaminated groundwater systems. Three tree species (Rhamnus frangula, Acer platanoides, and Betula populifolia) growing above the shallow groundwater aquifer of the Aberjona River watershed in Woburn, Massachusetts, display a pattern of phytochelatin production consistent with known sources of metal contamination and groundwater flow direction near the Industri-Plex Superfund site. Results also suggest the existence of a second area of contaminated groundwater and elevated metal stress near the Wells G and H Superfund site downstream, in agreement with a recent EPA ecological risk assessment. Possible contamination pathways at this site are discussed.

  16. Northwest Climate Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mote, P.; Dalton, M. M.; Snover, A. K.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the US National Climate Assessment, the Northwest region undertook a process of climate risk assessment. This process included an expert evaluation of previously identified impacts, their likelihoods, and consequences, and engaged experts from both academia and natural resource management practice (federal, tribal, state, local, private, and non-profit) in a workshop setting. An important input was a list of 11 risks compiled by state agencies in Oregon and similar adaptation efforts in Washington. By considering jointly the likelihoods, consequences, and adaptive capacity, participants arrived at an approximately ranked list of risks which was further assessed and prioritized through a series of risk scoring exercises to arrive at the top three climate risks facing the Northwest: 1) changes in amount and timing of streamflow related to snowmelt, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences; 2) coastal erosion and inundation, and changing ocean acidity, combined with low adaptive capacity in the coastal zone to create large risks; and 3) the combined effects of wildfire, insect outbreaks, and diseases will cause large areas of forest mortality and long-term transformation of forest landscapes.

  17. Assessment of fracture risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanis, John A. [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom)], E-mail: w.j.pontefract@sheffield.ac.uk; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); McCloskey, Eugene V. [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); Osteoporosis Centre, Northern General Hospital, Sheffield (United Kingdom)

    2009-09-15

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  18. Integrating Monitoring and Genetic Methods To Infer Historical Risks of PCBs and DDE to Common and Roseate Terns Nesting Near the New Bedford Harbor Superfund Site (Massachusetts, USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Common and roseate terns are migratory piscivorous seabirds with major breeding colonies within feeding range of thepolychlorinated biphenyl (PCB)-contaminated New Bedford Harbor (NBH, MA, USA) Superfund site. Our longitudinal study shows that before PCB discharges into NBH cease...

  19. Microbial Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  20. Methylmercury risk assessment issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipfert, F.W. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Saroff, L. [USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)

    1996-07-01

    This paper reviews the general background of health risks associated with mercury (Hg), primarily methylmercury (MeHg), with a view towards application to advanced technologies that could reduce any contributions from coal combustion. The need for accurate assessment of such risks is discussed, since Hg is now widely dispersed in the environment and cannot easily be eliminated. The primary pathway of MeHg intake is through eating contaminated fish. The issues of concern include identification of critical health outcomes (various neurological indices) and their confounding factors, accurate assessment of MeHg intake rates, and appropriate use of dose-response functions. Ultimately, such information will be used to evaluate alternative coal combustion systems.

  1. SITE COMPREHENSIVE LISTING (CERCLIS) (Superfund)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Information System (CERCLIS) (Superfund) Public Access Database contains a selected set of...

  2. Comparison of soil sampling and analytical methods for asbestos at the Sumas Mountain Asbestos Site—Working towards a toolbox for better assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Established soil sampling methods for asbestos are inadequate to support risk assessment and risk-based decision making at Superfund sites due to difficulties in detecting asbestos at low concentrations and difficulty in extrapolating soil concentrations to air concentrations. En...

  3. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  4. Framework for Metals Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Framework for Metals Risk Assessment is a science-based document that addresses the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  5. Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This is the first step in a long-term effort to develop risk assessment guidelines for ecological effects. Its primary purpose is to offer a simple, flexible structure for conducting and evaluating ecological risk assessment within EPA.

  6. Risk assessment for carnitine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hathcock, John N; Shao, Andrew

    2006-10-01

    Carnitine is a conditionally essential amino acid-like compound involved in the transport of long-chain fatty acids into the mitochondria during the beta-oxidation process. Carnitine has become an increasingly popular ingredient in dietary supplements, especially weight loss and some sports nutrition products. A number of clinical trials have been conducted examining the effect of carnitine supplementation on weight loss and energy balance. Regarding safety, systematic evaluation of the research designs and data do not provide a basis for risk assessment and the usual safe upper level of intake (UL) derived from it unless the newer methods described as the observed safe level (OSL) or highest observed intake (HOI) are utilized. The OSL risk assessment method indicates that the evidence of safety is strong at intakes up to 2000mg/day l-carnitine equivalents for chronic supplementation, and this level is identified as the OSL. Although much higher levels have been tested without adverse effects and may be safe, the data for intakes above 2000mg/day are not sufficient for a confident conclusion of long-term safety.

  7. Risk assessment in travel medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leggat, Peter A

    2006-01-01

    Risk assessment is an integral part of pre-travel and post- assessment. Risk assessment largely determines what health and safety advice and interventions are given within the relevant prevailing travel health guidelines. Risk assessment needs time and depends on information, including that given by the traveller. Risk assessment also needs to be documented. Risk assessment of the traveller preferably starts before they enter the consulting room, where travellers may complete a pre-travel health questionnaire. Armed with this information, risk assessment may be assisted by access to computerised travel health databases and the published literature. Experience of travel to the destination may also assist in risk assessment and the tour operator, overseas employer or agency, the traveller or even the travel health advisers themselves may provide this information.

  8. Current directions in screening-level ecological risk assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carlsen, T M; Efroymson, R A

    2000-12-11

    Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is a tool used by many regulatory agencies to evaluate the impact to ecological receptors from changes in environmental conditions. Widespread use of ERAs began with the United States Environmental Protection Agency's Superfund program to assess the ecological impact from hazardous chemicals released to the environment. Many state hazardous chemical regulatory agencies have adopted the use of ERAs, and several state regulatory agencies are evaluating the use of ERAs to assess ecological impacts from releases of petroleum and gas-related products. Typical ERAs are toxicologically-based, use conservative assumptions with respect to ecological receptor exposure duration and frequency, often require complex modeling of transport and exposure and are very labor intensive. In an effort to streamline the ERA process, efforts are currently underway to develop default soil screening levels, to identify ecological screening criteria for excluding sites from formal risk assessment, and to create risk-based corrective action worksheets. This should help reduce the time spent on ERAs, at least for some sites. Work is also underway to incorporate bioavailability and spatial considerations into ERAs. By evaluating the spatial nature of contaminant releases with respect to the spatial context of the ecosystem under consideration, more realistic ERAs with respect to the actual impact to ecological receptors at the population, community or ecosystem scale should be possible. In addition, by considering the spatial context, it should be possible to develop mitigation and monitoring efforts to more appropriately address such sites within the context of an ecological framework.

  9. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  10. 75 FR 49414 - Cooperative Agreements and Superfund State Contracts for Superfund Response Actions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-13

    ... AGENCY 40 CFR Part 35 RIN 2050-AG58 Cooperative Agreements and Superfund State Contracts for Superfund... Superfund Cooperative Agreements and Superfund State Contracts. DATES: This rule is effective October 12... requirements shall apply to all new Cooperative Agreements and Superfund State Contracts, funded under...

  11. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria....... Seven studies had high quality, 35 moderate and the rest poor quality. The accuracy of multivariate models was higher for pre-school children than for schoolchildren/adolescents. However, the models had seldom been validated in independent populations, making their accuracy uncertain. Of the single...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited...

  12. Tools for microbiological risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Bassett, J; Nauta, M; Lindqvist, R.; Zwietering, M. H.

    2012-01-01

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute ...

  13. Practical Approaches to Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing foodregulations is growing with the globalization of our food supply. The World Trade Organization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. The relevant international organization for food standards, the Codex Alimentarius Commission, recognises risk analysis, and its component parts risk assessment, risk management and risk communication, as the basis for scientific decision-making. Risk assessment comprises two activities: hazard evaluation; and exposure estimation. A hazard may be chemical, microbiological or nutritional in origin. The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation by four examples involving: (1) food additives, (2) microbiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses, (3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  14. Practical Approaches to Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SIMONBROOKE-TAYLOR

    2001-01-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing food regulations is growing with the globalization of our food supple,The World Trade Oranization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures.The relevant international organization for food standards,the Codex Alimentarius Commission,recognises risk analysis,and its component parts risk assessment,risk management and risk communication as the basis for scientific decision-making,Risk assessment comprises two activities:hazard evaluation;and exposure estimation.A hazard may be chemical,microbiological or nutritional in origin,The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation y four examples involving:(1) food additives,(2) microiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses,(3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  15. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  16. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  17. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  18. Hydrogeologic characterization and assessment of bioremediation of chlorinated benzenes and benzene in wetland areas, Standard Chlorine of Delaware, Inc. Superfund Site, New Castle County, Delaware, 2009-12

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorah, Michelle M.; Walker, Charles W.; Baker, Anna C.; Teunis, Jessica A.; Majcher, Emily H.; Brayton, Michael J.; Raffensperger, Jeff P.; Cozzarelli, Isabelle M.

    2014-01-01

    Wetlands at the Standard Chlorine of Delaware, Inc. Superfund Site (SCD) in New Castle County, Delaware, are affected by contamination with chlorobenzenes and benzene from past waste storage and disposal, spills, leaks, and contaminated groundwater discharge. In cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Geological Survey began an investigation in June 2009 to characterize the hydrogeology and geochemistry in the wetlands and assess the feasibility of monitored natural attenuation and enhanced bioremediation as remedial strategies. Groundwater flow in the wetland study area is predominantly vertically upward in the wetland sediments and the underlying aquifer, and groundwater discharge accounts for a minimum of 47 percent of the total discharge for the subwatershed of tidal Red Lion Creek. Thus, groundwater transport of contaminants to surface water could be significant. The major contaminants detected in groundwater in the wetland study area included benzene, monochlorobenzene, and tri- and di-chlorobenzenes. Shallow wetland groundwater in the northwest part of the wetland study area was characterized by high concentrations of total chlorinated benzenes and benzene (maximum about 75,000 micrograms per liter [μg/L]), low pH, and high chloride. In the northeast part of the wetland study area, wetland groundwater had low to moderate concentrations of total chlorinated benzenes and benzene (generally not greater than 10,000 μg/L), moderate pH, and high sulfate concentrations. Concentrations in the groundwater in excess of 1 percent of the solubility of the individual chlorinated benzenes indicate that a contaminant source is present in the wetland sediments as dense nonaqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs). Consistently higher contaminant concentrations in the shallow wetland groundwater than deeper in the wetland sediments or the aquifer also indicate a continued source in the wetland sediments, which could include dissolution of DNAPLs and

  19. Waste area Grouping 2 Phase I task data report: Human health risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Purucker, S.T.; Douthat, D.M.

    1996-06-01

    This report is one of five reports issued in 1996 that provide follow- up information to the Phase 1 Remedial Investigation (RI) Report for Waste Area Grouping (WAG) 2 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The five reports address areas of concern that could cause potential human health risk and ecological risk within WAG2 at ORNL. The purpose of this report is to present a summary of the human health risk assessment results based on the data collected for the WAG 2 Phase 1 RI. Estimates of risk are provided based on measured concentrations in the surface water, floodplain soil, and sediment of White Oak Creek, Melton Branch, and their tributaries. The human health risk assessment methodology used in this risk assessment is based on Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS). First, the data for the different media are elevated to determine usability for risk assessment. Second, through the process of selecting chemicals of potential concern (COPCs), contaminants to be considered in the risk assessment are identified for each assessment of exposure potential is performed, and exposure pathways are identified. Subsequently, exposure is estimated quantitatively, and the toxicity of each of the COPCs is determined. The results of these analyses are combined and summarized in a risk characterization.

  20. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  1. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  2. Nanomaterials: Regulation and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Grieger, Khara Deanne; Baun, Anders

    2013-01-01

    The topics of regulation and risk assessment of nanomaterials have never been more relevant and controversial in Europe than they are at this point in time. In this entry, we present and discuss a number of major pieces of legislation relevant for the regulation of nanomaterials, including REACH...... Regulation. Chemical risk assessment provides a fundamental element in support of existing legislation. Risk assessment is normally said to consist of four elements, i.e., hazard identification, dose–response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Each of these four elements hold......, the Water Framework Directive, pharmaceuticals regulation, and the Novel Foods Regulation. Current regulation of nanomaterials entail three overall challenges: 1) limitations in regard to terminology and definitions of key terms such as a “substance,” “novel food,” etc.; 2) safety assessment requirements...

  3. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H. (eds.)

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.).

  4. FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING RISKS OF ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Framework for Children's Health Risk Assessment report can serve as a resource on children's health risk assessment and it addresses the need to provide a comprehensive and consistent framework for considering children in risk assessments at EPA. This framework lays out the process, points to existing published sources for more detailed information on life stage-specific considerations, and includes web links to specific online publications and relevant Agency science policy papers, guidelines and guidance. The document emphasizes the need to take into account the potential exposures to environmental agents during preconception and all stages of development and focuses on the relevant adverse health outcomes that may occur as a result of such exposures. This framework is not an Agency guideline, but rather describes the overall structure and the components considered important for children's health risk assessment. The document describes an approach that includes problem formulation, analysis, and risk characterization, and also builds on Agency experience assessing risk to susceptible populations. The problem formulation step focuses on the life stage-specific nature of the analysis to include scoping and screening level questions for hazard characterization, dose response and exposure assessment. The risk characterization step recognizes the need to consider life stage-specific risks and explicitly describes the uncertainties and variability in the d

  5. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  6. Quantitative risk assessment of CO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koornneef, J.; Spruijt, M.; Molag, M.; Ramírez, A.; Turkenburg, W.; Faaij, A.

    2010-01-01

    A systematic assessment, based on an extensive literature review, of the impact of gaps and uncertainties on the results of quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) for CO2 pipelines is presented. Sources of uncertainties that have been assessed are: failure rates, pipeline pressure, temperat

  7. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  8. [Risk assessment of chemical agents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cottica, Danilo; Grignani, Elena; Bartolucci, Giovanni Battista

    2011-01-01

    The risk assessment of chemical agents is a well known and applied process carried out by Industrial Hygienists and Occupational Physicians based on exposure evaluation. The application of REACH (CE 1907/2006), CLP (CE 1272/2008) and SDS (UE 453/2010) introduces some changes and instruments to carry out the occupational exposure assessment, like new classification of substances, Exposure Scenario, suggested control measures that the Industrial Hygienist and the Occupational Physician must evaluate. If there is not a similar Exposure Scenario to apply a new risk assessment must carried out also by recommended software (ECETOC Targeted Risk Assessment; Easy to use workplace EMKG; Stoffenmanager). Looking at the relevance of the control measures and evaluation of Exposure Scenario we report the flowchart of risk assessment and management by the Method of Organisational Congruencies carried out with the Prevention and Protection Service and Occupational Physician Office of the Health Service of the Azienda Provinciale of Trento.

  9. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... and toxicity. Whereas Risk Assessment (RA) aims to identify absolute risks, LCA assess potential or relative impacts. LCA is readily applicable to nanotechnologies and several studies have been carried out, but LCA faces large problems when addressing toxic impacts of nanomaterials emitted during the life...... cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize...

  10. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  11. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    The EU classification of substances for e.g. reproductive toxicants is hazard based and does not to address the risk suchsubstances may pose through normal, or extreme, use. Such hazard classification complies with the consumer's right to know. It is also an incentive to careful use and storage...... and to substitute with less toxic compounds. Actually, if exposure is constant across product class, producersmay make substitution decisions based on hazard. Hazard classification is also useful during major accidents where there is no time for risk assessment and the exposure is likely to be substantial enough...... be a poor substitute for a proper risk assessment as low potency substances can constitute a risk if the exposure is high enough and vice versa. Examples illustrating the strength and limitations of hazard classification, risk assessment and toxicological potency will be presented with focus on reproductive...

  12. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  13. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  14. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  15. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor.

  16. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  17. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  18. SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF LEVEES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Rosidi

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A seismic risk assessment procedure for earth embankments and levees is presented. The procedure consists of three major elements: (1 probability of ground motion at the site, (2 probability of levee failure given a level of ground motion has occurred and (3 expected loss resulting from the failure. This paper discusses the first two elements of the risk assessment. The third element, which includes economic losses and human casualty, will not be presented herein. The ground motions for risk assessment are developed using a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. A two-dimensional finite element analysis is performed to estimate the dynamic responses of levee, and the probability of levee failure is calculated using the levee fragility curve. The overall objective of the assessment is to develop an analytical tool for assessing the failure risk and the effectiveness of various levee strengthening alternatives for risk reduction. An example of the procedure, as it applies to a levee built along the perimeter of an island for flood protection and water storage, is presented. Variations in earthquake ground motion and soil and water conditions at the site are incorporated in the risk assessment. The effects of liquefaction in the foundation soils are also considered.

  19. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models....... enables the relative importance of the different factors (i.e. degree of climate change, assets value, discount rate etc.) to be determined, thus influencing the overall output of the assessment.......Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...

  20. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  1. Cancer risk assessment of toxaphene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buranatrevedh, Surasak

    2004-07-01

    The primary purpose is to do cancer risk assessment of toxaphene by using four steps of risk assessment proposed by the United States National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (NAS/NRC). Four steps of risk assessment including hazard identification, dose-response relationship, exposure assessment, and risk characterization were used to evaluate cancer risk of toxaphene. Toxaphene was the most heavily used insecticide in many parts of the world before it was banned in 1982. It increased incidence of neoplasms of liver and uterus in mice and increased incidence of neoplasms of endocrine organs, thyroid, pituitary, adrenal, mammary glands, and reproductive systems in rats. From mice's and rats' study, slope factor for toxaphene is 0.8557 (mg/ kg/day)(-1). Lifetime average daily dose (LADD) of toxaphene from ambient air, surface water, soil, and fish were 1.08 x 10(-6), 5.71 x 10(-6), 3.43 x 10(-7), and 7.96 x 10(-5) mg/kg/day, respectively. Cancer risk of toxaphene for average exposure is 7.42 x 10(-5). From this study, toxaphene might have carcinogenic risk among humans.

  2. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahn, J.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hannaman, G.W. [Science Applications International Corp., San Diego, CA (United States); Kryska, P. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  3. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahn, J.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hannaman, G.W. [Science Applications International Corp., San Diego, CA (United States); Kryska, P. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  4. Remediation of the Wells G & H Superfund Site, Woburn, Massachusetts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bair, E Scott; Metheny, Maura A

    2002-01-01

    Remediation of ground water and soil contamination at the Wells G & H Superfund Site, Woburn, Massachusetts, uses technologies that reflect differences in hydrogeologic settings, concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and costs of treatment. The poorly permeable glacial materials that overlie fractured bedrock at the W.R. Grace property necessitate use of closely spaced recovery wells. Contaminated ground water is treated with hydrogen peroxide and ultraviolet (UV) oxidation. At UniFirst, a deep well completed in fractured bedrock removes contaminated ground water, which is treated by hydrogen peroxide, UV oxidation, and granular activated carbon (GAC). The remediation system at Wildwood integrates air sparging, soil-vapor extraction, and ground water pumping. Air stripping and GAC are used to treat contaminated water; GAC is used to treat contaminated air. New England Plastics (NEP) uses air sparging and soil-vapor extraction to remove VOCs from the unsaturated zone and shallow ground water. Contaminated air and water are treated using separate GAC systems. After nine years of operation at W.R. Grace and UniFirst, 30 and 786 kg, respectively, of VOCs have been removed. In three years of operation, 866 kg of VOCs have been removed at Wildwood. In 15 months of operation, 36 kg of VOCs were removed at NEP. Characterization work continues at the Olympia Nominee Trust, Whitney Barrel, Murphy Waste Oil, and Aberjona Auto Parts properties. Risk assessments are being finalized that address heavy metals in the floodplain sediments along the Aberjona River that are mobilized from the Industri-Plex Superfund Site located a few miles upstream.

  5. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc.......A strategy for delineating risk factors from use of neurotoxic chemicals was applied to the Danish working environment. An analysis using this strategy disclosed the need for internationally adopted criteria for neurotoxicity, and consequently a working group was established by the Nordic Council...

  6. Army Independent Risk Assessment Guidebook

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-04-01

    AMSAA Kadry Rizk, TARDEC Lisa Graf, TARDEC Klaus Sanford, TRAC Elyse Krezmien, TRAC Jerry Scriven, ALU Igor Linkov, ERDC Alison Tichenor...Engineering ATEC - Army Test and Evaluation Command BCA - Business Case Analysis C - Consequence Level C- BA - Cost Benefit Analysis CDD...the AMSAA Risk Team has completed 12 technical and schedule risk assessments to support AoAs and Cost-Benefit Analyses (C- BAs ). AMSAA also developed

  7. ANTHROPIC RISK ASSESSMENT ON BIODIVERSITY

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niche...

  8. Tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Strunz

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS the assessment of tsunami risk is an essential part of the overall activities. The scientific and technical approach for the tsunami risk assessment has been developed and the results are implemented in the national Indonesian Tsunami Warning Centre and are provided to the national and regional disaster management and spatial planning institutions in Indonesia.

    The paper explains the underlying concepts and applied methods and shows some of the results achieved in the GITEWS project (Rudloff et al., 2009. The tsunami risk assessment has been performed at an overview scale at sub-national level covering the coastal areas of southern Sumatra, Java and Bali and also on a detailed scale in three pilot areas. The results are provided as thematic maps and GIS information layers for the national and regional planning institutions. From the analyses key parameters of tsunami risk are derived, which are integrated and stored in the decision support system of the national Indonesian Early Warning Centre. Moreover, technical descriptions and guidelines were elaborated to explain the developed approach, to allow future updates of the results and the further development of the methodologies, and to enable the local authorities to conduct tsunami risk assessment by using their own resources.

  9. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  10. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  11. Integrated Disposal Facility Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MANN, F. M.

    2003-06-03

    An environmental risk assessment associated with the disposal of projected Immobilized Low-Activity Waste, solid wastes and failed or decommissioned melters in an Integrated Disposal Facility was performed. Based on the analyses all performance objectives associated with the groundwater, air, and intruder pathways were met.

  12. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    (recommendation levels A-D). RESULTS: Three SR, three guidelines, and five papers, not considered in previous SR, were identified and formed the base for the present summary and recommendations. One of the systematic reviews and three of the primary publications were of moderate risk of bias, while the rest......PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... with the AMSTAR tool and the primary publications according to the Cochrane handbook. The quality was rated as low, moderate, or high risk of bias. The findings were descriptively synthesised and the quality of evidence was graded according to GRADE. For the recommendations of practice, the SIGN scores were used...

  13. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  14. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    A strategy for delineating risk factors from use of neurotoxic chemicals was applied to the Danish working environment. An analysis using this strategy disclosed the need for internationally adopted criteria for neurotoxicity, and consequently a working group was established by the Nordic Council...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc.......A strategy for delineating risk factors from use of neurotoxic chemicals was applied to the Danish working environment. An analysis using this strategy disclosed the need for internationally adopted criteria for neurotoxicity, and consequently a working group was established by the Nordic Council...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...

  15. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  16. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  17. Automating Spreadsheet Discovery & Risk Assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Perry, Eric

    2008-01-01

    There have been many articles and mishaps published about the risks of uncontrolled spreadsheets in today's business environment, including non-compliance, operational risk, errors, and fraud all leading to significant loss events. Spreadsheets fall into the realm of end user developed applications and are often absent the proper safeguards and controls an IT organization would enforce for enterprise applications. There is also an overall lack of software programming discipline enforced in how spreadsheets are developed. However, before an organization can apply proper controls and discipline to critical spreadsheets, an accurate and living inventory of spreadsheets across the enterprise must be created, and all critical spreadsheets must be identified. As such, this paper proposes an automated approach to the initial stages of the spreadsheet management lifecycle - discovery, inventory and risk assessment. Without the use of technology, these phases are often treated as a one-off project. By leveraging techn...

  18. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liuzzo, Gaetano; Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-04-19

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception) are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s) of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements.

  19. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements.

  20. Survey of mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, risk assessment tools and positive risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downes, C; Gill, A; Doyle, L; Morrissey, J; Higgins, A

    2016-04-01

    WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: Risk assessment and safety planning are a core aspect of the role of the mental health nurse. Conflicting views exist on the value of risk assessment tools. Few studies have examined mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk, including use of tools and the role of positive risk in recovery. WHAT THE PAPER ADDS TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: Mental health nurses view risk assessment as a core dimension of their role and not merely an exercise to fulfil organizational clinical safety and governance obligations. The majority of nurses hold positive attitudes towards therapeutic or positive risk, and consider creative risk taking as vital to people's recovery. The majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional decision making, however, some are concerned that tools may negatively impact upon therapeutic relationships. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: Ongoing education on the use of risk assessment tools is required to minimize views that their use is incompatible with therapeutic engagement, and to enable nurses to develop confidence to engage with positive risk and to allow service users make decisions and take responsibility. Introduction Risk assessment and safety planning are considered core components of the role of the mental health nurse; however, little is known about nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, use of tools to assess risk or therapeutic risk taking. Aim This study aimed to explore mental health nurses' attitudes towards completing risk assessments, use of tools as an aid, and therapeutic or positive risk. Method An anonymous survey which included 13 attitudinal statements, rated on a five-point Likert scale, was completed by 381 mental health nurses working in adult services in Ireland. Findings Findings indicate strong support for the practice of risk assessment in mental health practice. The vast majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional

  1. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  2. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  3. SITE COMPREHENSIVE LISTING (CERCLIS) (Superfund) - NPL Sites

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — National Priorities List (NPL) Sites - The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Information System (CERCLIS) (Superfund) Public Access...

  4. Superfund Site Information - Site Sampling Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This asset includes Superfund site-specific sampling information including location of samples, types of samples, and analytical chemistry characteristics of...

  5. CERCLIS (Superfund) ASCII Text Format - CPAD Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Information System (CERCLIS) (Superfund) Public Access Database (CPAD) contains a selected set...

  6. [Risk assessment in pain therapy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoeffel, D; Casser, H R; Bach, M; Kress, H G; Likar, R; Locher, H; Steinleitner, W; Strohmeier, M; Brunner, H; Treede, R D; Zieglgänsberger, W; Sandkühler, J

    2008-10-01

    Analgesic therapy is not without risk. However, the risk of most analgesic interventions is minor compared to the risk of the inadequate treatment of pain and insufficient treatment may lead to chronic pain.A correct diagnosis should be the basis of any specific treatment of pain disorders. Only a diagnosis which implicates a multi-disciplinary assessment and which considers both the pathoanatomical, functional and biopsychosocial dysfunctions can lead to an adequate therapeutic intervention. Furthermore, therapeutic planning should include the personal needs of the patient and should have realistic aims.Pharmacological treatment is guided by the WHO pain ladder. The risks of the relevant substance groups must be considered. NSAIDs (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) which are included in all steps of the WHO pain ladder carry specific risks for the gastrointestinal, cardiovascular and renal systems and are contraindicated in many patients in need of analgesic therapy, e.g. in many elderly patients. Opioids which are recommended at steps 2 and 3 of the WHO pain ladder have less organ toxicity but they are still used reluctantly. Coanalgetics, especially antidepressants bear specific risks and the discussion on suicide rates under antidepressant medication is ongoing.Invasive methods such as the intrathecal application of analgesics are valuable procedures if the indication is correct and the treating physician has sufficient experience. Pain therapy is essential and the risks of the procedures are manageable. Considering the current knowledge on the mechanisms of pain sensitisation, the lack of adequate pain control can lead to chronic pain with severe consequences for the patient.

  7. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E; Dinu, Irina

    2015-08-14

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario-Tainted blood transfusion infection risk-That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making.

  8. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  9. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    their relationship. The experiences accumulated during the preparation of several case studies in a large scale international project (RAPID) are used for argumentation and formulation of recommendations on how risk assessment can be systematically integrated into the HIA process. Risk assessment uses well...... than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... in the risk appraisal phase to describe effects of various factors on different health outcomes. Consequently, HIA is typically led by a large, preferably intersectoral steering group with representatives of communities at risk. Risk assessment, in contrary, is mainly a licensed scientific process completed...

  10. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  11. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  12. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  13. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  14. Transcriptomic assessment of resistance to effects of an aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR agonist in embryos of Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus from a marine Superfund site

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franks Diana G

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Populations of Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus have evolved resistance to the embryotoxic effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs and other halogenated and nonhalogenated aromatic hydrocarbons that act through an aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR-dependent signaling pathway. The resistance is accompanied by reduced sensitivity to induction of cytochrome P450 1A (CYP1A, a widely used biomarker of aromatic hydrocarbon exposure and effect, but whether the reduced sensitivity is specific to CYP1A or reflects a genome-wide reduction in responsiveness to all AHR-mediated changes in gene expression is unknown. We compared gene expression profiles and the response to 3,3',4,4',5-pentachlorobiphenyl (PCB-126 exposure in embryos (5 and 10 dpf and larvae (15 dpf from F. heteroclitus populations inhabiting the New Bedford Harbor, Massachusetts (NBH Superfund site (PCB-resistant and a reference site, Scorton Creek, Massachusetts (SC; PCB-sensitive. Results Analysis using a 7,000-gene cDNA array revealed striking differences in responsiveness to PCB-126 between the populations; the differences occur at all three stages examined. There was a sizeable set of PCB-responsive genes in the sensitive SC population, a much smaller set of PCB-responsive genes in NBH fish, and few similarities in PCB-responsive genes between the two populations. Most of the array results were confirmed, and additional PCB-regulated genes identified, by RNA-Seq (deep pyrosequencing. Conclusions The results suggest that NBH fish possess a gene regulatory defect that is not specific to one target gene such as CYP1A but rather lies in a regulatory pathway that controls the transcriptional response of multiple genes to PCB exposure. The results are consistent with genome-wide disruption of AHR-dependent signaling in NBH fish.

  15. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  16. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  17. Using tissue residues in aquatic animals to ground-truth ecological risk assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dillon, T.M. [EA Engineering, Science and Technology, Inc., Hunt Valley, MD (United States)

    1995-12-31

    Ecological risks are often estimated by comparing expected environmental exposures (EEE) to a toxicity benchmark (TB). This comparison is expressed quantitatively as a Hazard Quotient (HQ) by dividing the TB into the EEE. HQs are designed to be environmentally conservative to minimize false negatives. This conservatism allows risk managers to conclude with a high degree of certainty that HQs < 1.0 represent acceptable ecological risks. HQs > 1.0, however, are more difficult to interpret. Current state-of-the-practice is to conduct a weight-of-evidence analysis where multiple lines of information are considered in addition to the HQ results. This analysis indicates to the risk manager what level of certainty he or she should place in the HQ results. One line of evidence is the presence/absence of chemicals of concern in the tissues of field-collected receptors. This presentation will demonstrate how residue data were used to ground-truth HQs generated for an ecological risk assessment conducted at a DOD facility in the southeastern US. For some receptor-chemical combinations, tissue residues rescind substantial ecological risks suggested by elevated HQs. In other instances, tissue residues corroborated the HQ results suggesting where true ecological hazards exist. Specific examples will be given for when the use of tissue residue data is inappropriate. Finally, this presentation will suggest how tissue residue data can be incorporated in a weight-of-evidence Risk Characterization that is consistent with EPA`s Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment and draft Ecological Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund.

  18. From Hazard to Risk - Assessing the Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Madsen, C.B.; Houben, G.; Hattersley, S.; Crevel, R.W.R.; Remington, B.C.; Baumert, J.L.

    2013-01-01

    Regulatory thresholds for allergenic foods have not yet been developed. This means that public and industrial risk managers do not have regulatory thresholds to decide if a content or level of contamination is acceptable or not. For a long time, data have been inadequate to define safe thresholds fo

  19. Fuzzy based risk register for construction project risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchta, Dorota; Ptaszyńska, Ewa

    2017-07-01

    The paper contains fuzzy based risk register used to identify risks which appear in construction projects and to assess their attributes. Risk is considered here as a possible event with negative consequences for the project [4]. We use different risk attributes in the proposed risk register. Values of risk attributes are generated by using fuzzy numbers. Specific risk attributes have different importance for project managers of construction projects. To compare specific risk attributes we use methods of fuzzy numbers ranking. The main strengths of the proposed concept in managing construction projects are also presented in the paper.

  20. Advances in the assessment of suicide risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Craig J; Rudd, M David

    2006-02-01

    This article reviews and integrates empirically grounded advances in the assessment of suicidality. The practices discussed are consistent with existing standards of care, practice guidelines, and applicable research. The authors differentiate between risk assessment and prediction and then emphasize the important role of time in risk assessment. We present and illustrate a continuum of suicidality for risk assessment and offer practical recommendations for clinical decision making and treatment. (c) 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  2. Spatial disparity in the distribution of superfund sites in South Carolina: an ecological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burwell-Naney, Kristen; Zhang, Hongmei; Samantapudi, Ashok; Jiang, Chengsheng; Dalemarre, Laura; Rice, LaShanta; Williams, Edith; Wilson, Sacoby

    2013-11-06

    According to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Superfund is a federal government program implemented to clean up uncontrolled hazardous waste sites. Twenty-six sites in South Carolina (SC) have been included on the National Priorities List (NPL), which has serious human health and environmental implications. The purpose of this study was to assess spatial disparities in the distribution of Superfund sites in SC. The 2000 US census tract and block level data were used to generate population characteristics, which included race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status (SES), education, home ownership, and home built before 1950. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to map Superfund facilities and develop choropleth maps based on the aforementioned sociodemographic variables. Spatial methods, including mean and median distance analysis, buffer analysis, and spatial approximation were employed to characterize burden disparities. Regression analysis was performed to assess the relationship between the number of Superfund facilities and population characteristics. Spatial coincidence results showed that of the 29.5% of Blacks living in SC, 55.9% live in Superfund host census tracts. Among all populations in SC living below poverty (14.2%), 57.2% were located in Superfund host census tracts. Buffer analyses results (0.5mi, 1.0mi, 5.0mi, 0.5km, 1.0km, and 5.0km) showed a higher percentage of Whites compared to Blacks hosting a Superfund facility. Conversely, a slightly higher percentage of Blacks hosted (30.2%) a Superfund facility than those not hosting (28.8%) while their White counterparts had more equivalent values (66.7% and 67.8%, respectively). Regression analyses in the reduced model (Adj. R2 = 0.038) only explained a small percentage of the variance. In addition, the mean distance for percent of Blacks in the 90th percentile for Superfund facilities was 0.48mi. Burden disparities exist in the distribution of Superfund facilities in SC at the block and

  3. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  4. Pressure sore risk assessment in palliative care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin, J

    2000-01-01

    Pressure sore prevention in palliative care is recognized as being an essential element of holistic care, with the primary goal of promoting quality of life for patient and family. Little is known about the incidence of pressure sore development and the use of pressure sore risk assessment tools in palliative care settings. The development of a risk assessment tool specifically for palliative care patients in a 41-bedded specialist palliative care unit is described. The risk assessment tool was developed as part of a tissue viability practice development initiative. The approach adopted in the validation of the Hunters Hill Marie Curie Centre pressure sore risk assessment tool was the comparative analysis of professional judgment of experienced palliative care nurses with the numerical scores achieved during the assessment of risk on 291 patients (529 risk assessment events). This comparative analysis identified the threshold for different degrees of risk for the patient group involved: low risk, medium risk, high risk and very high risk. Further work is being undertaken to evaluate the inter-rater reliability of the new tool. A number of issues are explored in this paper in relation to pressure sore prevention in palliative care: the role of risk assessment tools, the sometimes conflicting aims of trying to ensure comfort and prevent pressure sore damage, and the uncertainties faced by palliative care nurses when they are trying to maintain quality of life for the dying.

  5. [Application of three risk assessment models in occupational health risk assessment of dimethylformamide].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Z J; Xu, B; Jiang, H; Zheng, M; Zhang, M; Zhao, W J; Cheng, J

    2016-08-20

    Objective: To investigate the application of United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inhalation risk assessment model, Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model, and occupational hazards risk assessment index method in occupational health risk in enterprises using dimethylformamide (DMF) in a certain area in Jiangsu, China, and to put forward related risk control measures. Methods: The industries involving DMF exposure in Jiangsu province were chosen as the evaluation objects in 2013 and three risk assessment models were used in the evaluation. EPA inhalation risk assessment model: HQ=EC/RfC; Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model: Risk= (HR×ER) (1/2); Occupational hazards risk assessment index=2(Health effect level)×2(exposure ratio)×Operation condition level. Results: The results of hazard quotient (HQ>1) from EPA inhalation risk assessment model suggested that all the workshops (dry method, wet method and printing) and work positions (pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting) were high risk. The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model indicated that the workshop risk level of dry method, wet method and printing were 3.5 (high) , 3.5 (high) and 2.8 (general) , and position risk level of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 4 (high) , 4 (high) , 2.8 (general) , 2.8 (general) and 2.8 (general) . The results of occupational hazards risk assessment index method demonstrated that the position risk index of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 42 (high) , 33 (high) , 23 (middle) , 21 (middle) and 22 (middle) . The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model and occupational hazards risk assessment index method were similar, while EPA inhalation risk assessment model indicated all the workshops and positions were high risk. Conclusion: The occupational hazards risk assessment index method fully considers health effects, exposure, and operating conditions

  6. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  7. Assessing Human Health Risk from Pesticides

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  8. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  9. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  10. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.;

    2009-01-01

    the area forward. Three possible approaches to safety assessment and risk assessment for allergenic foods were presented and discussed: safety assessment using NOAEL/LOAEL and uncertainty factors, safety assessment using Benchmark Dose and Margin of Exposure (MoE), and risk assessment using probabilistic...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic...

  11. Superfund and Toxic Release Inventory Sites - SUPERFUND_IDEM_IN: Superfund Program Facilities in Indiana (Indiana Department of Environmental Management, Point Shapefile)

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC GIS Inventory (aka Ramona) — SUPERFUND_IDEM_IN is a point shapefile that contains GPS-located Superfund Program facility locations in Indiana, provided by personnel of Indiana Department of...

  12. RISK ASSESSMENT PROCEDURE FOR CIVIL AIRPORT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Distefano

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available A practical problem in air transport is how to manage risk and safety. In recent years have been developed special technical and managerial skills to the systematic, forward looking identification and control of hazards throughout the life cycle of a project, program, or activity. Safety Management System (SMS involves identifying, evaluating, and addressing of hazards or risk. Its sole purpose is to prevent accidents. Safety risk assessment is defined as the systematic identification and evaluation of the risk posed by the complete spectrum of possible accident scenarios. Risk assessment is a tool that supports decision making and as such supports risk management. Risk management comprises the safety optimization of the system, the verification process and risk acceptance, which support airport operations. This paper proposed a quantitative methodology for the risk assessment for a civil airport, which is based on historical data of aircraft accidents, contained in the Aviation Safety Network database, from 1 January 1980 to 31 December 2010.

  13. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  14. Evolving Adjustments to External (Gamma) Slope Factors for CERCLA Risk and Dose Assessments - 12290

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walker, Stuart [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (United States)

    2012-07-01

    To model the external exposure pathway in risk and dose assessments of radioactive contamination at Superfund sites, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) uses slope factors (SFs), also known as risk coefficients, and dose conversion factors (DCFs). Without any adjustment these external radiation exposure pathways effectively assumes that an individual is exposed to a source geometry that is effectively an infinite slab. The concept of an 'infinite slab' means that the thickness of the contaminated zone and its aerial extent are so large that it behaves as if it were infinite in its physical dimensions. EPA has been making increasingly complex adjustments to account for the extent of the contamination and its corresponding radiation field to provide more accurate risk and dose assessment modeling when using its calculators. In most instances, the more accurate modeling results derived from these gamma adjustments are less conservative. The notable exception are for some radionuclides in rooms with contaminated walls, ceiling, and floors, and the receptor is in location of the room with the highest amount of radiation exposure, usually the corner of small rooms and the center of large conference rooms. (authors)

  15. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  16. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  17. Superfund National Priority List (NPL) Site Boundaries

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — A set of site boundaries for each site in EPA Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont) on EPA's Superfund National...

  18. Information needs for risk management/communication

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bennett, D.A. [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)

    1990-12-31

    The hazardous waste cleanup program under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (Superfund) is delegated to the ten Regions of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and has, to date, identified more than 33,000 sites for consideration. The size and complexity of the program places great demands on those who would provide information to achieve national consistency in application of risk assessment while meeting site-specific needs for risk management and risk communication.

  19. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... the emissions, how should they be defined and classified and what should be measured? LCA have many of these issues in common with RA. There is a need to understand which properties of nanomaterials are crucial for the assessment of their potential transformation and fate as well as their ability to cause...... adverse effects on target organisms or systems. If we want to be able to assess toxic impacts both in LCA and in RA these issues need to be addressed by the RA community and the LCA community must follow closely the progress made....

  20. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  1. Risk assessment methodology in oil shale mining

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sabanov, S. [Tallinn Univ. of Technology, Tallinn (Estonia)

    2009-07-01

    The safety challenges posed by different mining processes were discussed in terms of geotechnical risk factors. Various mining processes can result in work hazards, a production shut-down, economic damage to the enterprise, and environmental impacts. In Estonia, risk assessment methods are utilized in different branches of industry. However, the literature on solving mining problems is limited. Various methods are applicable for solving complicated mining problems. This paper elaborated on a modified risk assessment methodology for oil shale mining in Estonia. The paper specifically discussed problems associated with oil shale mining as well as risk assessment methods such as risk analysis and risk evaluation. Topics that were introduced included risk analysis; risk identification; risk estimation; risk evaluation; risk mitigation; and risk acceptance. The modified risk assessment methodology was successfully applied to the extraction of mineral resources, stability of a mining block, and their influence on the environment. It was concluded that the methodology provides opportunity to find improved methods for new mine planning in accordance with environmental performances and the economical profit for companies. 8 refs., 2 figs.

  2. Risk assessment of plant protection products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hardy T

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available

    EFSA’s Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues (PPR Panel provides independent scientific advice in the field of risk assessment of plant protection products (PPPs, pesticides. Since its establishment in 2003 under Regulation (EC No 178/2002, it has delivered a series of scientific outputs in support of evaluation of pesticide active substances, establishing scientific principles and guidance documents in the field of pesticide risk assessment and in support of decision making of European Union (EU law makers. Next to a series of scientific opinions evaluating specific adverse effects of PPPs for human health (like for instance carcinogenicity the Panel also delivered scientific opinions on general principles in the field of human health risk assessment (like reference value setting and is, in particular over the last years, very much engaged in development of methodologies to meet new challenges in regulatory risk assessments such as assessment of toxicity of pesticide metabolites and potential cumulative effects of pesticides to human health. Fate, behaviour and transformation of pesticides after their application and consequent release to the environment are a major aspect of pesticide risk assessment. The PPR Panel has achieved major accomplishments by delivering guidance and scientific opinions on degradation in soil, exposure of soil organisms and assessment of environmental risks by use of pesticides in greenhouses or grown under cover. A series of scientific opinions have been delivered also in the field of environmental risk assessment of pesticides. Scientific output covered specific issues arising in the peer review of specific active substances, revision of data requirements, development of risk assessment methodologies and the development of guidance documents. A major milestone of the PPR Panel was the development of the methodological framework for deriving specific protection goals for environmental risk

  3. Production Risk Assessing Methodology (PRAM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-05-01

    the price up five-fold which translates to $30.M. On the optimistic side,this same commodity market could bring the price down to one half of the price...57 PWMIW- A recognitinn that past product ion probl ems represent f ut ri , producto ; risk areas suggested an empirically developed risk structure

  4. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

  5. GHGT-11 - Integrated Carbon Risk Assessment (ICARAS)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wollenweber, J.; Busby, D.; Wessel-Berg, D.; Nepveu, M.; Bossie Codreanu, D.; Grimstad, A-A.; Sijacic, D.; Maurand, N.; Lothe, A.; Wahl, F.; Polak, S.; Boot, H.; Grøver, A.; Wildenborg, T.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper an integrated workflow is described for risk assessment within CCS. IFPEN, SINTEF and TNO joined forces to define a comprehensive and transparent risk assessment methodology. The tools developed in these institutes are thereby integrated. The workflow can be applied to proposed carbon

  6. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

  7. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to aquat

  8. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee reco

  9. Fuzzy sets applications for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molchanov, P A; Dudatiev, A V; Podobna, Y Y; Molchanova, O P

    2002-09-01

    The method of cancer risk assessment on the basis of the Fuzzy Set Theory is presented. The method is based on a multifactor risk assessment of cancer diseases. The individual risk of cancer disease is evaluated as the probability of disease multiplied by the value of an individual dose. An acupuncture method of cancer risk assessments was developed. The method is based on the analysis of changes of an electromagnetic field (biofield) of a person. The method allows to determine both cancer probability and probable location of the process.

  10. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  11. Caries risk assessment models in caries prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amila Zukanović

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The aim of this research was to assess the efficiency of different multifactor models in caries prediction. Material and methods. Data from the questionnaire and objective examination of 109 examinees was entered into the Cariogram, Previser and Caries-Risk Assessment Tool (CAT multifactor risk assessment models. Caries risk was assessed with the help of all three models for each patient, classifying them as low, medium or high-risk patients. The development of new caries lesions over a period of three years [Decay Missing Filled Tooth (DMFT increment = difference between Decay Missing Filled Tooth Surface (DMFTS index at baseline and follow up], provided for examination of the predictive capacity concerning different multifactor models. Results. The data gathered showed that different multifactor risk assessment models give significantly different results (Friedman test: Chi square = 100.073, p=0.000. Cariogram is the model which identified the majority of examinees as medium risk patients (70%. The other two models were more radical in risk assessment, giving more unfavorable risk –profiles for patients. In only 12% of the patients did the three multifactor models assess the risk in the same way. Previser and CAT gave the same results in 63% of cases – the Wilcoxon test showed that there is no statistically significant difference in caries risk assessment between these two models (Z = -1.805, p=0.071. Conclusions. Evaluation of three different multifactor caries risk assessment models (Cariogram, PreViser and CAT showed that only the Cariogram can successfully predict new caries development in 12-year-old Bosnian children.

  12. Ecological risk assessment guidance for preparation of remedial investigation/feasibility study work plans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pentecost, E.D.; Vinikour, W.S. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)

    1993-08-01

    This guidance document (1) provides instructions on preparing the components of an ecological work plan to complement the overall site remedial assessment investigation/feasibility study (RI/FS) work plan and (2) directs the user on how to implement ecological tasks identified in the plan. Under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA), as amended by the Superfired Amendments and Reauthorization Act of 1986 (SARA), an RI/FS work plan win have to be developed as part of the site-remediation scoping the process. Specific guidance on the RI/FS process and the preparation of work plans has been developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA 1988a). This document provides guidance to US Department of Energy (DOE) staff and contractor personnel for incorporation of ecological information into environmental remediation planning and decision making at CERCLA sites. An overview analysis of early ecological risk assessment methods (i.e., in the 1980s) at Superfund sites was conducted by the EPA (1989a). That review provided a perspective of attention given to ecological issues in some of the first RI/FS studies. By itself, that reference is of somewhat limited value; it does, however, establish a basis for comparison of past practices in ecological risk with current, more refined methods.

  13. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyoung-Hee Choi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models.

  14. Risk Assessment: Perchloroethylene Dry Cleaners Refined Human Health Risk Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    This November 2005 memo and appendices describe the methods by which EPA conducted its refined risk assessment of the Major Source and Area Source facilities within the perchloroethylene (perc) dry cleaners source category.

  15. Superfund record of decision (EPA Region 5): Ormet Corporation, Hannibal, OH, September 1994

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-09-12

    The Record of Decision presents the selected remedy for the Ormet Corporation Superfund Site. The purpose of this remedy is to eliminate or reduce contamination in soils, sediments and ground water, and to reduce the risks associated with exposure to contaminated materials. This is the first and final remedy planned for the Site.

  16. An IOT Security Risk Autonomic Assessment Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengchao Ma

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In terms of Internet of Things (IOT system with the possibility criterion of fuzziness and randomness security risk, we qualitatively analyze the security risk level of IOT security scene by describing generalization metrics the potential impact and likelihood of occurrence of every major threat scenarios. On this basis, we proposed self-assessment algorithm of IOT security risk, adopting three-dimensional normal cloud model integrated consideration of risk indicators, researching the multi-rule mapping relationship between the qualitative input of safety indicators and the quantitative reasoning of self-assessment. Finally, we build security risk assessment simulation platform, and verify the validity and accuracy of the algorithm in the premise of substantiating the risk level and the safety criterion domain.

  17. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology.

  18. Survey: Risk Assessment for Cloud Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drissi S.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available with the increase in the growth of cloud computing and the changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers, the cloud consumers should be aware of the risks and vulnerabilities present in the current cloud computing environment. An information security risk assessment is designed specifically for that task. However, there is lack of structured risk assessment approach to do it. This paper aims to survey existing knowledge regarding risk assessment for cloud computing and analyze existing use cases from cloud computing to identify the level of risk assessment realization in state of art systems and emerging challenges for future research.

  19. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  20. Cardiovascular risk assessment in diabetes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Djaberi, Roxana

    2014-01-01

    Research described in this thesis is based on clinical data obtained through diabetes cardiovascular risk management (DIACARM) project. A clinical protocol founded on the co-operation of the departments of endocrinology, cardiology, nephrology, radiology and nuclear medicine at the Leiden University

  1. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series......-evaluation of quantitative pathway analyses, and in statistical modelling of experimental data. A Plant Health Network has been established to facilitate interaction with EU Member States, especially in relation to data collection and co-ordination of risk assessment activities. At the current time a revision of the EU...

  2. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: A discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire, T.; Stevenson, H.; Pieters, M.N.; Rennen, M.; Slob, W.; Hakkert, B.C.

    1999-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute toward the further harmonization of human health risk assessment. It first discusses the development of a formal, harmonized set of assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed, that is, the type of factor

  3. [Study on application of two risk assessment methods in coal dust occupational health risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, B; Zhang, Y L; Chen, Y Q

    2017-04-20

    Objective: To evaluate the applicability of quantitative grading method (GBZ/T 229.1-2010) and occupational hazard risk index method in coal dust occupational health risk assessment. Methods: Taking 4 coal mines as the research object of risk assessment and making occupational health field testing and investigation. Based on two risk assessment methods, we analysed the health risk levels of 20 occupations which were exposed to coal dust in workplaces. Results: Coal dust working post had different risk levels in 4 coal mines, the post of higher risk level were mainly concentrated in the underground workplace of coal mine, especially the post of coal mining and tunneling system. The two risk assessment results showed that the risk levels of coal-mining machine drivers and tunneling machine drivers were the highest. The risk levels of coal dust working post used by two risk assessment methods had no significant difference (P>0.05) and were highly correlated (r=0.821, Prisk assessment methods were supported by the field investigation and literatures. Conclusion: The two risk assessment methods can be used in coal dust occupational health risk assessment.

  4. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Game, Edward T.; Fitzsimons, James A.; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-12-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner.

  5. How probabilistic risk assessment can mislead terrorism risk analysts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Gerald G; Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2011-02-01

    Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), of the type originally developed for engineered systems, is still proposed for terrorism risk analysis. We show that such PRA applications are unjustified in general. The capacity of terrorists to seek and use information and to actively research different attack options before deciding what to do raises unique features of terrorism risk assessment that are not adequately addressed by conventional PRA for natural and engineered systems-in part because decisions based on such PRA estimates do not adequately hedge against the different probabilities that attackers may eventually act upon. These probabilities may differ from the defender's (even if the defender's experts are thoroughly trained, well calibrated, unbiased probability assessors) because they may be conditioned on different information. We illustrate the fundamental differences between PRA and terrorism risk analysis, and suggest use of robust decision analysis for risk management when attackers may know more about some attack options than we do.

  6. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  7. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment: A Methodological Comparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving; Christensen, Frans Møller; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2001-01-01

    Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment are two different tools in environmental management. The paper identifies harmonies, discrepancies and relations between the two tools exemplified by the risk assessment principles of the European Commission (EC) and the LCA method ‘EDIP’ (En-vironmental...... conditions. It is concluded that the conceptual background and the purpose of the tools are different but that there are overlaps where they may benefit from each other and they do complement each other in an overall environmental effort....... Design of Industrial Products) developed in Denmark, respectively. A very important feature of LCA is the relative assessment due to the use of a functional unit. Risk assessment on the other hand is an absolute assessment, which may require very specific and detailed information on e.g. the exposure...

  8. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  9. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  10. Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment (CAMRA), based at Michigan State University and jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the...

  11. Safety Factors in Pesticide Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elmegaard, N.; Jagers op Akkerhuis, G. A. J. M.

    Foreword It has become common practice to protect the environment from hazardous chemicals by use of risk assessment to establish environmental concentration at which only limited damage to the ecosystem can be expected. The methods and tools applied in the risk assessment need constant evaluation...... to secure that the methodology is adequate. As new knowledge surfaces the risk assessment procedures develops. The present report is a contribution to the development of safety factors used to account for the uncertainty when · extrapolating from the results of test with a single species in the laboratory...... factors used in pesticide risk assessment: the variability in species sensitivities, and the relationship between acute LC50's and chronic NOEC's....

  12. Procedures for health risk assessment in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seeley, M.R.; Tonner-Navarro, L.E.; Beck, B.D.; Deskin, R.; Feron, V.J.; Johanson, G.; Bolt, H.M.

    2001-01-01

    This report compares cancer classification systems, health risk assessment approaches, and procedures used for establishing occupational exposure limits (OELs), in various European countries and scientific organizations. The objectives were to highlight and compare key aspects of these processes and

  13. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... of guidance documents. These deal with the peer review of existing pest risk assessments, a framework for conducting risk assessments which harmonise standards set by the International Plant Protection Convention and the legislative requirements of the EU, and extension of this framework to include......-evaluation of quantitative pathway analyses, and in statistical modelling of experimental data. A Plant Health Network has been established to facilitate interaction with EU Member States, especially in relation to data collection and co-ordination of risk assessment activities. At the current time a revision of the EU...

  14. Screening-level risk assessment for styrene-acrylonitrile (SAN) trimer detected in soil and groundwater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirman, C R; Gargas, M L; Collins, J J; Rowlands, J C

    2012-01-01

    A screening-level risk assessment was conducted for styrene-acrylonitrile (SAN) Trimer detected at the Reich Farm Superfund site in Toms River, NJ. Consistent with a screening-level approach, on-site and off-site exposure scenarios were evaluated using assumptions that are expected to overestimate actual exposures and hazards at the site. Environmental sampling data collected for soil and groundwater were used to estimate exposure point concentrations. Several exposure scenarios were evaluated to assess potential on-site and off-site exposures, using parameter values for exposures to soil (oral, inhalation of particulates, and dermal contact) and groundwater (oral, dermal contact) to reflect central tendency exposure (CTE) and reasonable maximum exposure (RME) conditions. Three reference dose (RfD) values were derived for SAN Trimer for short-term, subchronic, and chronic exposures, based upon its effects on the liver in exposed rats. Benchmark (BMD) methods were used to assess the relationship between exposure and response, and to characterize appropriate points of departure (POD) for each RfD. An uncertainty factor of 300 was applied to each POD to yield RfD values of 0.1, 0.04, and 0.03 mg/kg-d for short-term, subchronic, and chronic exposures, respectively. Because a chronic cancer bioassay for SAN Trimer in rats (NTP 2011a) does not provide evidence of carcinogenicity, a cancer risk assessment is not appropriate for this chemical. Potential health hazards to human health were assessed using a hazard index (HI) approach, which considers the ratio of exposure dose (i.e., average daily dose, mg/kg-d) to toxicity dose (RfD, mg/kg-d) for each scenario. All CTE and RME HI values are well below 1 (where the average daily dose is equivalent to the RfD), indicating that there is no concern for potential noncancer effects in exposed populations even under the conservative assumptions of this screening-level assessment.

  15. Asbestos Workshop: Sampling, Analysis, and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    coatings Vinyl/asbestos floor tile Automatic transmission components Clutch facings Disc brake pads Drum brake linings Brake blocks Commercial and...1EMDQ March 2012 ASBESTOS WORKSHOP: SAMPLING, ANALYSIS , AND RISK ASSESSMENT Paul Black, PhD, Neptune and Company Ralph Perona, DABT, Neptune and...Sampling, Analysis , and Risk Assessment 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK

  16. Latest developments in foodborne pathogen risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Membré, Jeanne Marie; Guillou, Sandrine

    2016-01-01

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) is a structured process for determining the public health risk associated with foodborne pathogens. In recent years, there has been a strong tendency in providing food safety decisions based upon quantitative assessment. Especially, variability and uncertainty inherent to biological processes have been integrated in food safety management through the use of powerful statistical and probabilistic techniques. Besides, recent developments in omic technologie...

  17. UAV Swarm Operational Risk Assessment system

    OpenAIRE

    Marfo, Sariyu; Ehler, Shane; Fields, Ryan; Negron, Jamaries Benitez; Skopak, Shane; Junek, John; Zarzaca, Justin; Perrotta, Robert; Team CQ Alpha; Cohort 311-141A

    2015-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This paper examines the need for a UAV Swarm Risk Assessment Tool and how it can assist the Navy’s decision makers in assessing risk of UAV swarm threats in littoral environments, near potentially hostile countries, based on the latest intelligence. Human-centered design principles help determine the needs of experienced battle commanders. These needs form the basis of requirements and functional analysis. The system design concept con...

  18. Environmental risk assessment of pesticides in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teklu, B.M.

    2016-01-01

    The current increase in application rate and usage frequency of application of pesticides in Ethiopia pose direct risks to surface water aquatic organisms and humans and cattle using surface water as a source of drinking water in rural parts of the country. A model based risk assessment as currently

  19. Gender and risk assessment in contraceptive technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kammen, van Jessika; Oudshoorn, Nelly

    2002-01-01

    This paper concerns a comparison of risk assessment practices of contraceptives for women and men. Our analysis shows how the evaluation of health risks of contraceptives does not simply reflect the specific effects of chemical compounds in the human body. Rather, we show how side-effects were rated

  20. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  1. Biodiversity Risk Assessment of Protected Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitalija Rudzkienė

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Forest ecosystems are characterised by the most abundant biodiversity because there are the best conditions for existence of various species of plants, animals and various other organisms there. Generally, in the last decades a lot of attention is given to biodiversity, and scientific research draws attention to an increasing loss of biodiversity. Biodiversity measurements are needed in order to understand biodiversity changes and to control them. Measurements and assessments of biodiversity of ecosystems reveal the condition of an ecosystem of a certain territory as well as create the basis for a strategy of preserving separate species. A lot of indices for assessing biodiversity risk have been created in the last decades. Integrated indices are composed when joining indices, and one of them is the integrated biodiversity risk assessment index NABRAI (National Biodiversity Risk Assessment Index. This article analyses the principles of creating biodiversity risk indices, possible alternatives of components (variables of biodiversity resources, impact and response indices, and their suitability at the national level. Assessment and ranking methodology, adapted for assessment of biodiversity risk of local protected territories and for ranking of territories, is presented. Report data of directorates of Lithuanian national and regional parks are used for the analysis, as well as the data served as a basis to calculate integrated biodiversity risk indices of several protected territories of Lithuania.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.erem.65.3.4478

  2. New Methodology for Rapid Seismic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melikyan, A. E.; Balassanian, S. Y.

    2002-05-01

    Seismic risk is growing worldwide and is, increasingly, a problem of developing countries. Along with growing urbanization future earthquakes will have more disastrous social and economic consequences. Seismic risk assessment and reduction are important goals for each country located in seismically active zone. For Armenia these goals are of primary importance because the results of studies carried out by Armenian NSSP for assessment of the losses caused by various types of disasters in Armenia had shown that earthquakes are the most disastrous hazard for Armenia. The strategy for seismic risk reduction in 1999 was adopted by the Government of Armenia as a high priority state program. The world experience demonstrates that for efficient response the rapid assessment of seismic losses is necessary. There are several state-of-the-art approaches for seismic risk assessment (Radius, Hazus, etc.). All of them required large amount of various input data, which is impossible to collect in many developing countries, in particular in Armenia. Taking into account this very serious problem existing for developing countries, as well as rapid seismic risk assessment need immediately after strong earthquake the author undertake the attempt to contribute into a new approach for rapid seismic risk assessment under the supervision of Prof. S. Balassanian. The analysis of numerous factors influencing seismic risk in Armenia shows that the following elements contribute most significantly to the possible losses: seismic hazard; density of population; vulnerability of structures. Proposed approach for rapid seismic risk assessment based on these three factors has been tested for several seismic events. These tests have shown that such approach might represent from 80 to 90 percent of real losses.

  3. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  4. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  5. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  6. Trichloroethylene risk assessment: relevance of interindividual differences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, N.P.E.; Bladeren, P.J. van

    2001-01-01

    Interindividual variability in the disposition and effects of xenobiotics in humans and related inter-species differences should play a major role in human risk assessment. In particular for low-dose exposures to potentially carcinogenic compounds, novel tools and concepts are necessary to assess

  7. Trichloroethylene risk assessment: relevance of interindividual differences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, N.P.E.; Bladeren, P.J. van

    2001-01-01

    Interindividual variability in the disposition and effects of xenobiotics in humans and related inter-species differences should play a major role in human risk assessment. In particular for low-dose exposures to potentially carcinogenic compounds, novel tools and concepts are necessary to assess ri

  8. Risk Assessment Study for Storage Explosive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. S. Azhar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In Malaysia, there has been rapidly increasing usage in amount of explosives due to widely expansion in quarrying and mining industries. The explosives are usually stored in the storage where the safety precaution had given high attention. As the storage of large quantity of explosive can be hazardous to workers and nearby residents in the events of accidental denotation of explosives, a risk assessment study for storage explosive (magazine had been carried out. Risk assessment study had been conducted in Kimanis Quarry Sdn. Bhd, located in Sabah. Risk assessment study had been carried out with the identification of hazards and failure scenarios and estimation of the failure frequency of occurrence. Analysis of possible consequences of failure and the effects of blast waves due to the explosion was evaluated. The risk had been estimated in term of fatalities and eardrum rupture to the workers and public. The average individual voluntary risk for fatality to the workers at the quarry is calculated to be 5.75 x 10-6 per person per year, which is much lower than the acceptable level. Eardrum rupture risk calculated to be 3.15 x 10-6 per person per year for voluntary risk. There is no involuntary risk found for fatality but for eardrum rupture it was calculated to be 6.98 x 10-8 per person per year, as given by Asian Development Bank.

  9. Earthquake risk assessment for Istanbul metropolitan area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    The impact of earthquakes in urban centers prone to disastrous earthquakes necessitates the analysis of associated risk for rational formulation of contingency plans and mitigation strategies. In urban centers, the seismic risk is best quantified and portrayed through the preparation of "Earthquake Damage and Loss Scenarios." The components of such scenarios are the assessment of the hazard, inventories and the vulnerabilities of elements at risk. For the development of the earthquake risk scenario in Istanbul, two independent approaches, one based on intensities and the second on spectral displacements, are utilized. This paper will present the important features of a comprehensive study, highlight the methodology, discuss the results and provide insights to future developments.

  10. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  11. TSCA Work Plan Chemical Risk Assessment: 1 ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    1-Bromopropane (CASRN 106-94-5): or 1-BP is a volatile organic chemical that is considered moderately persistent in the environment but does not have the potential to bioaccumulate in fish or other animals. The majority of the 1-BP production volume (~ 47%) is used as a vapor degreaser for optics electronics, plastics, and metals. 1-BP also is used as an aerosol solvent in cleaning products, as a spray fixative in arts and crafts, and as a spot cleaner in various industrial/commercial/consumer sectors. Focus of the Risk Assessment: The assessment will focus on uses of 1-BP in commercial (i.e., vapor degreasing, spray adhesives, and dry cleaning) and consumer applications (i.e., aerosol solvent cleaners and spray adhesives). Given the range of endpoints (i.e., cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), susceptible populations are expected to include adults (including pregnant women) in commercial uses and children (as bystanders) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women) for consumer uses. Thus, the assessment will focus on all humans/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its work on the a

  12. Postural risk assessment of mechanised firewood processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spinelli, Raffaele; Aminti, Giovanni; De Francesco, Fabio

    2017-03-01

    The study assessed the postural risk of mechanised firewood processing with eight machines, representing the main technology solutions available on the market. Assessment was conducted with the Ovako Working posture Analysis System (OWAS) on 1000 still frames randomly extracted from videotaped work samples. The postural risk associated with firewood processing was variable and associated with technology type. Simple, manually operated new machines incurred a higher postural risk compared with semi- or fully automatic machines. In contrast, new semi-automatic and automatic machines were generally free from postural risk. In all cases, attention should be paid to postural risk that may occur during blockage resolution. The study did not cover the postural risk of firewood processing sites as a whole. The study provided useful information for selecting firewood processing machinery and for improving firewood machinery design, as part of a more articulate strategy aimed at enhancing the safety of firewood processing work sites. Practitioner Summary: The postural risk associated with mechanised firewood processing (eg cutting and splitting) depends on the type of equipment. Postural risk is highest (OWAS Action Category 2) with new in-line machines, designed for operation by a single worker. Fully automatic machines present minimum postural risk, except during blockage resolution.

  13. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  14. Risk propensity assessment in military special operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sicard, B; Jouve, E; Blin, O

    2001-10-01

    Risk taking, decision making, and stress factors are strongly associated in military operations. The authors used the Bond and Lader mood and alertness scale and a new scale, Evaluation of Risks (EVAR), to assess risk proneness in a maritime counter-terrorism exercise. EVAR items are distributed among five factors: self-control, danger seeking, energy, impulsiveness, and invincibility. In the study, 10 pilots were submitted to strenuous night flights with limited sleep deprivation. Compared with baseline data, pilots reported an increase in impulsiveness, whereas EVAR factors were consistent in a control group composed of 9 navy crew member. Correlations were observed between mood and alertness and risk factors. These results illustrate how EVAR can be used to evaluate change in risk proneness in individuals submitted to various stressors. But further studies are required to weigh stress factors and environmental conditions in risk propensity with a larger population of various age and personality traits.

  15. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    as a powerful tool for the evaluation of potential health consequences of planned measures. It is often discussed whether HIA is not just another term or form of risk assessment and what is their relation. Our aim is to discuss similarities and differences between the two methods so as to clarify......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...... standardised scientific methods to characterise the probability and magnitude of harm caused by a hazard, preferably in a quantitative manner. In turn, HIA is a process to assess future impacts of recent proposals and is dominated by qualitative evaluation. It makes a projection for a future scenario rather...

  16. Risk assessment of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waigmann E

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available

    EFSA’s remit in the risk assessment of GMOs is very broad encompassing genetically modified plants, microorganisms and animals and assessing their safety for humans, animals and the environment. The legal frame for GMOs is set by Directive 2001/18/EC on their release into the environment, and Regulation (EC No 1829/2003 on GM food and feed. The main focus of EFSA’s GMO Panel and GMO Unit lies in the evaluation of the scientific risk assessment of new applications for market authorisation of GMOs, and in the development of corresponding guidelines for the applicants. The EFSA GMO Panel has elaborated comprehensive guidance documents on GM plants, GM microorganisms and GM animals, as well as on specific aspects of risk assessment such as the selection of comparators. EFSA also provides special scientific advice upon request of the European Commission; examples are post-market environmental monitoring of GMOs, and consideration of potential risks of new plant breeding techniques. The GMO Panel regularly reviews its guidance documents in the light of experience gained with the evaluation of applications, technological progress in breeding technologies and scientific developments in the diverse areas of risk assessment.

  17. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2016-12-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  18. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  19. Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of hospitals in villages and small towns, inability to engage patients due to the old and poor equipment, lack of research and problems in information privacy and cyber-security, requires an appropriate management, enabling risk managers to take decisions in order to avoid the occurrence of risks. Important for the functioning of every hospital is the perception of patients and their degree of satisfaction, regarding the quality of services, which depend largely on the quality of human resources. But what are the human resources weaknesses and risks from the patient point of view? What are the risk indicators which must be monitored to avoid risks? And also, which is the most useful method for measurement and assessment of risk?

  20. Integrating public risk perception into formal natural hazard risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Th. Plattner

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available An urgent need to take perception into account for risk assessment has been pointed out by relevant literature, its impact in terms of risk-related behaviour by individuals is obvious. This study represents an effort to overcome the broadly discussed question of whether risk perception is quantifiable or not by proposing a still simple but applicable methodology. A novel approach is elaborated to obtain a more accurate and comprehensive quantification of risk in comparison to present formal risk evaluation practice. A consideration of relevant factors enables a explicit quantification of individual risk perception and evaluation. The model approach integrates the effective individual risk reff and a weighted mean of relevant perception affecting factors PAF. The relevant PAF cover voluntariness of risk-taking, individual reducibility of risk, knowledge and experience, endangerment, subjective damage rating and subjective recurrence frequency perception. The approach assigns an individual weight to each PAF to represent its impact magnitude. The quantification of these weights is target-group-dependent (e.g. experts, laypersons and may be effected by psychometric methods. The novel approach is subject to a plausibility check using data from an expert-workshop. A first model application is conducted by means of data of an empirical risk perception study in Western Germany to deduce PAF and weight quantification as well as to confirm and evaluate model applicbility and flexibility. Main fields of application will be a quantification of risk perception by individual persons in a formal and technical way e.g. for the purpose of risk communication issues in illustrating differing perspectives of experts and non-experts. For decision making processes this model will have to be applied with caution, since it is by definition not designed to quantify risk acceptance or risk evaluation. The approach may well explain how risk perception differs, but not

  1. Assessing the Environmental Risks of Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    decisionmakers better decide on which risk assessment/analysis framework may be best suited for the specific risk decision at hand. Among other results, we find that while many of the assessed frameworks have their advantages along with limitations, most may require potentially lengthy decision-making processes...... of uncertainty, degree of precaution, inclusion of quantitative or qualitative data, inclusion of life-cycle perspective, iterative and/or adaptive, ensuring timely decision making, and degree of transparency. This analysis can ultimately assist scientists, government agencies, organizations, and other......Assessing the environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (NM) is currently an intensely contested subject among scientists, organizations, governments, and policymakers. The shear number, variety, and market penetration of NM in consumer goods and other applications, including environmental...

  2. Safety Factors in Pesticide Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elmegaard, N.; Jagers op Akkerhuis, G. A. J. M.

    Foreword It has become common practice to protect the environment from hazardous chemicals by use of risk assessment to establish environmental concentration at which only limited damage to the ecosystem can be expected. The methods and tools applied in the risk assessment need constant evaluation...... to many species in real ecosystems · extrapolating from acute to chronic or long term effects. The project was co-funded by the Environmental Protection Agency and The National Environmental Research Institute Summary In this report two factors are studied which have implications for the size of safety...... factors used in pesticide risk assessment: the variability in species sensitivities, and the relationship between acute LC50's and chronic NOEC's....

  3. Risk factors for and assessment of constipation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Sherree; Hungerford, Catherine

    2015-04-01

    Constipation commonly occurs in older people, particularly in hospital or residential care settings, and leads to decreased quality of life and increased healthcare costs. Despite its frequency, however, nurses often overlook the condition. One possible reason for this may be the lack of appropriate tools or scales for nurses to assess risk factors for developing constipation. This article identifies, from the academic literature, 14 risk factors for developing constipation in older people. These factors are then considered in light of four common constipation assessment charts. The article concludes by arguing the need for more comprehensive assessment tools to, firstly, identify risk factors; and, secondly, support the implementation of appropriate preventative strategies that will enable better health outcomes for older people.

  4. Concepts of modern risk assessment and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbin, S B

    1994-01-01

    An emerging and increasingly complex array of environmental health concerns face dental practitioners in both the private and public sectors. These concerns are challenging and possibly threatening the traditionally inviolable dentist-patient relationship. Regulatory bodies, health risk experts, attorneys, and enthusiastic media are inserting themselves into the process. Essential assets for "successful" dental practitioners include enhanced expertise in basic science and technology, including the area of risk assessment, and development of broadened perspectives and skills for communicating with patients and the public.

  5. Assessing patients' risk of febrile neutropenia: is there a correlation between physician-assessed risk and model-predicted risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyman, Gary H; Dale, David C; Legg, Jason C; Abella, Esteban; Morrow, Phuong Khanh; Whittaker, Sadie; Crawford, Jeffrey

    2015-08-01

    This study evaluated the correlation between the risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) estimated by physicians and the risk of severe neutropenia or FN predicted by a validated multivariate model in patients with nonmyeloid malignancies receiving chemotherapy. Before patient enrollment, physician and site characteristics were recorded, and physicians self-reported the FN risk at which they would typically consider granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) primary prophylaxis (FN risk intervention threshold). For each patient, physicians electronically recorded their estimated FN risk, orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (yes/no), and patient characteristics for model predictions. Correlations between physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk (primary endpoints) and between physician-assessed FN risk and G-CSF orders were calculated. Overall, 124 community-based oncologists registered; 944 patients initiating chemotherapy with intermediate FN risk enrolled. Median physician-assessed FN risk over all chemotherapy cycles was 20.0%, and median model-predicted risk was 17.9%; the correlation was 0.249 (95% CI, 0.179-0.316). The correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and subsequent orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (n = 634) was 0.313 (95% CI, 0.135-0.472). Among patients with a physician-assessed FN risk ≥ 20%, 14% did not receive G-CSF orders. G-CSF was not ordered for 16% of patients at or above their physician's self-reported FN risk intervention threshold (median, 20.0%) and was ordered for 21% below the threshold. Physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk correlated weakly; however, there was moderate correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis. Further research and education on FN risk factors and appropriate G-CSF use are needed.

  6. [Patient safety in antibiotics administration: Risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maqueda Palau, M; Pérez Juan, E

    To determine the level of risk in the preparation and administration of antibiotics frequently used in the Intensive Care Unit using a risk matrix. A study was conducted using situation analysis and literature review of databases, protocols and good practice guidelines on intravenous therapy, drugs, and their administration routes. The most used antibiotics in the ICU registered in the ENVIN-HELICS program from 1 April to 30 June 2015 were selected. In this period, 257 patients received antimicrobial treatment and 26 antibiotics were evaluated. Variables studied: A risk assessment of each antibiotic using the scale Risk Assessment Tool, of the National Patient Safety Agency, as well as pH, osmolarity, type of catheter recommended for administration, and compatibility and incompatibility with other antibiotics studied. Almost two-thirds (65.3%) of antibiotics had more than 3 risk factors (represented by a yellow stripe), with the remaining 34.7% of antibiotics having between 0 and 2 risk factors (represented by a green stripe). There were no antibiotics with 6 or more risk factors (represented by a red stripe). Most drugs needed reconstitution, additional dilution, and the use of part of the vial to administer the prescribed dose. More than half of the antibiotics studied had a moderate risk level; thus measures should be adopted in order to reduce it. The risk matrix is a useful tool for the assessment and detection of weaknesses associated with the preparation and administration of intravenous antibiotics. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  7. [Benefit-risk assessment of vaccination strategies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanslik, Thomas; Boëlle, Pierre Yves

    2007-04-01

    This article summarises the various stages of the risk/benefit assessment of vaccination strategies. Establishing the awaited effectiveness of a vaccination strategy supposes to have an epidemiologic description of the disease to be prevented. The effectiveness of the vaccine strategy will be thus expressed in numbers of cases, hospitalizations or deaths avoided. The effectiveness can be direct, expressed as the reduction of the incidence of the infectious disease in the vaccinated subjects compared to unvaccinated subjects. It can also be indirect, the unvaccinated persons being protected by the suspension in circulation of the pathogenic agent, consecutive to the implementation of the vaccination campaign. The risks of vaccination related to the adverse effects detected during the clinical trials preceding marketing are well quantified, but other risks can occur after marketing: e.g., serious and unexpected adverse effects detected by vaccinovigilance systems, or risk of increase in the age of cases if the vaccination coverage is insufficient. The medico-economic evaluation forms a part of the risks/benefit assessment, by positioning the vaccine strategy comparatively with other interventions for health. Epidemiologic and vaccinovigilance informations must be updated very regularly, which underlines the need for having an operational and reliable real time monitoring system to accompany the vaccination strategies. Lastly, in the context of uncertainty which often accompanies the risks/benefit assessments, it is important that an adapted communication towards the public and the doctors is planned.

  8. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  9. Caries risk assessment in young adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Twetman, Svante

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To validate baseline caries risk classifications according to the Cariogram model with the actual caries development over a 3-year period in a group of young adults living in Sweden. METHODS: The study group consisted of 1,295 19-year-old patients that completed a comprehensive clinical...... baseline examination, including radiographs and salivary tests. An individual caries risk profile was computed and the patient was placed in one of five risk categories. After 3 years, 982 patients (75.8%) were re-examined and caries increment for each patient was calculated. The outcome was expressed...... as sensitivity, specificity and predictive values and compared with a risk assessment scheme used in Public Dental Service. RESULTS: The drop-outs displayed more risk factors and a significantly higher caries burden at baseline compared with those that remained in the project (p 

  10. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...

  11. Concepts in ecological risk assessment. Professional paper

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnston, R.K.; Seligman, P.F.

    1991-05-01

    Assessing the risk of impact to natural ecosystems from xenobiotic compounds requires an accurate characterization of the threatened ecosystem, direct measures or estimates of environmental exposure, and a comprehensive evaluation of the biological effects from actual and potential contamination. Field and laboratory methods have been developed to obtain direct measures of environmental health. These methods have been implemented in monitoring programs to assess and verify the ecological risks of contamination from past events, such as hazardous waste disposal sites, as well as future scenarios, such as the environmental consequences from the use of biocides in antifouling bottom paints for ships.

  12. Recording pressure ulcer risk assessment and incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plaskitt, Anne; Heywood, Nicola; Arrowsmith, Michaela

    2015-07-15

    This article reports on the introduction of an innovative computer-based system developed to record and report pressure ulcer risk and incidence at an acute NHS trust. The system was introduced to ensure that all patients have an early pressure ulcer risk assessment, which prompts staff to initiate appropriate management if a pressure ulcer is detected, thereby preventing further patient harm. Initial findings suggest that this electronic process has helped to improve the timeliness and accuracy of data on pressure ulcer risk and incidence. In addition, it has resulted in a reduced number of reported hospital-acquired pressure ulcers.

  13. Clinical practice of risk assessment of sexual violence

    OpenAIRE

    Judge, Joseph Gerard

    2012-01-01

    Background: Risk assessment of sexual violence involves evidence based evaluation of the risks posed by sexual offenders. It informs risk management; the provision of treatment that reduces the risk of future sexual violence. Previous research has focused on assessment of the predictive accuracy of different risk assessment tools, as well as the identification of risk factors that are associated with recidivism. In contrast, the clinical practice of risk assessment is a research a...

  14. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  15. Assessment of subsurface chlorinated solvent contamination using tree cores at the front street site and a former dry cleaning facility at the Riverfront Superfund site, New Haven, Missouri, 1999-2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumacher, John G.; Struckhoff, Garrett C.; Burken, Joel G.

    2004-01-01

    Tree-core sampling has been a reliable and inexpensive tool to quickly assess the presence of shallow (less than about 30 feet deep) tetrachloroethene (PCE) and trichloroethene (TCE) contamination in soils and ground water at the Riverfront Superfund Site. This report presents the results of tree-core sampling that was successfully used to determine the presence and extent of chlorinated solvent contamination at two sites, the Front Street site (operable unit OU1) and the former dry cleaning facility, that are part of the overall Riverfront Superfund Site. Traditional soil and ground-water sampling at these two sites later confirmed the results from the tree-core sampling. Results obtained from the tree-core sampling were used to design and focus subsequent soil and ground-water investigations, resulting in substantial savings in time and site assessment costs. The Front Street site is a small (less than 1-acre) site located on the Missouri River alluvium in downtown New Haven, Missouri, about 500 feet from the south bank of the Missouri River. Tree-core sampling detected the presence of subsurface PCE contamination at the Front Street site and beneath residential property downgradient from the site. Core samples from trees at the site contained PCE concentrations as large as 3,850 mg-h/kg (micrograms in headspace per kilogram of wet core) and TCE concentrations as large as 249 mg-h/kg. Soils at the Front Street site contained PCE concentrations as large as 6,200,000 mg/kg (micrograms per kilogram) and ground-water samples contained PCE concentrations as large as 11,000 mg/L (micrograms per liter). The former dry cleaning facility is located at the base of the upland that forms the south bank of the Missouri River alluvial valley. Tree-core sampling did not indicate the presence of PCE or TCE contamination at the former dry cleaning facility, a finding that was later confirmed by the analyses of soil samples collected from the site. The lateral extent of PCE

  16. Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

    2016-12-01

    Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

  17. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  18. Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Apel

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood disaster mitigation strategies should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk combined with a thorough investigation of the uncertainties associated with the risk assessment procedure. Within the 'German Research Network of Natural Disasters' (DFNK the working group 'Flood Risk Analysis' investigated the flood process chain from precipitation, runoff generation and concentration in the catchment, flood routing in the river network, possible failure of flood protection measures, inundation to economic damage. The working group represented each of these processes by deterministic, spatially distributed models at different scales. While these models provide the necessary understanding of the flood process chain, they are not suitable for risk and uncertainty analyses due to their complex nature and high CPU-time demand. We have therefore developed a stochastic flood risk model consisting of simplified model components associated with the components of the process chain. We parameterised these model components based on the results of the complex deterministic models and used them for the risk and uncertainty analysis in a Monte Carlo framework. The Monte Carlo framework is hierarchically structured in two layers representing two different sources of uncertainty, aleatory uncertainty (due to natural and anthropogenic variability and epistemic uncertainty (due to incomplete knowledge of the system. The model allows us to calculate probabilities of occurrence for events of different magnitudes along with the expected economic damage in a target area in the first layer of the Monte Carlo framework, i.e. to assess the economic risks, and to derive uncertainty bounds associated with these risks in the second layer. It is also possible to identify the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty. It could be shown that the uncertainty caused by epistemic sources significantly alters the results

  19. Risk assessment and management logistics chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Vikulov

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain Risk Management methods, methods of probability theory, methods of risk management, methods of statistics the authors of this paper proposed their own risk assessment method and the method of management of logistics chains. The proposed tool is a specific hybrid of solutions known from the literature. Results: The presented method has been successfully used within the frames of economic-mathematical model of industrial enterprises. Indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier are considered in this paper. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers. Conclusion: Every organization, which starting the process of integration with supplier and customers, needs to use tools, methodologies and techniques for identification of "weak links" in the supply chain. The proposed method allows to fix risk origin places in various links of the supply chain and to identify "weak links" of a logistic chain that may occur in the future. The method is a useful tool for managing not only risks and risk situations, but also to improve the efficiency of current assets management by providing the ability to optimize the level of risk in the current assets management of the industrial enterprise.

  20. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  1. Ecosystem services in risk assessment and management. ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The ecosystem services (ES) concept holds much promise for environmental decision making. Even so, the concept has yet to gain full traction in the decisions and policies of environmental agencies in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere. Here we examine the opportunities for and implications of including ES in risk assessments and the risk management decisions that they inform. We assert that use of ES will: 1) lead to more comprehensive environmental protection; 2) help to articulate the benefits of environmental decisions, policies, and actions; 3) better inform the derivation of environmental quality standards; 4) enable integration of human health and ecological risk assessment; and 5) facilitate horizontal integration of policies, regulations, and programs. We provide the technical basis and supporting rationale for each assertion, relying on examples taken from experiences in the United States and European Union. Specific recommendations are offered for use of ES in risk assessment and risk management, and issues and challenges to advancing use of ES are described along with some of the science needed to improve the value of the ES concept to environmental protection. This paper is one of 4 papers generated from the 2014 Pellston Workshop “Ecosystem Services, Environmental Stressors and Decision Making,” organized jointly by the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry and the Ecological Society of America. The main workshop objective was

  2. Risk assessment for SAGD well blowouts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worth, D.; Alhanati, F.; Lastiwka, M. [C-FER Technologies, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Crepin, S. [Petrocedeno, Caracas (Venezuela)

    2008-10-15

    This paper discussed a steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) pilot project currently being conducted in Venezuela's Orinoco Belt. A risk assessment was conducted as part of the pilot program in order to evaluate the use of single barrier completions in conjunction with a blowout response plan. The study considered 3 options: (1) an isolated double barrier completion with a downhole safety valve (DHSV) in the production tubing string and a packer in the production casing annulus; (2) a partially isolated completion with no DHSV and a packer in the production casing annulus; and (3) an open single barrier completion with no additional downhole barriers. A reservoir model was used to assess the blowout flowing potential of SAGD well pairs. The probability of a blowout was estimated using fault tree analysis techniques. Risk was determined for various blowout scenarios, including blowouts during normal and workover operations, as well as blowouts through various flow paths. Total risk for each completion scenario was also determined at 3 different time periods within the production life of the well pair. The possible consequences of a blowout were assessed using quantitative consequence models. Results of the study showed that environmental and economic risks were much higher for the open completion technique. Higher risks were also associated with the earlier life of the completion strings. 20 refs., 3 tabs., 19 figs.

  3. Automating defence generation for risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gadyatskaya, Olga

    2016-01-01

    Efficient risk assessment requires automation of its most tedious tasks: identification of vulnerabilities, attacks that can exploit these vulnerabilities, and countermeasures that can mitigate the attacks. E.g., the attack tree generation by policy invalidation approach looks at systematic automati

  4. Soil Erosion Risk Assessment and Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fister, Wolfgang; Kuhn, Nikolaus J.; Heckrath, Goswin

    2013-04-01

    Soil erosion is a phenomenon with relevance for many research topics in the geosciences. Consequently, PhD students with many different backgrounds are exposed to soil erosion related questions during their research. These students require a compact, but detailed introduction to erosion processes, the risks associated with erosion, but also tools to assess and study erosion related questions ranging from a simple risk assessment to effects of climate change on erosion-related effects on geochemistry on various scales. The PhD course on Soil Erosion Risk Assessment and Modelling offered by the University of Aarhus and conducted jointly with the University of Basel is aimed at graduate students with degrees in the geosciences and a PhD research topic with a link to soil erosion. The course offers a unique introduction to erosion processes, conventional risk assessment and field-truthing of results. This is achieved by combing lectures, mapping, erosion experiments, and GIS-based erosion modelling. A particular mark of the course design is the direct link between the results of each part of the course activities. This ensures the achievement of a holistic understanding of erosion in the environment as a key learning outcome.

  5. Dermal absorption and toxicological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buist, H.

    2016-01-01

    Absorption of toxic substances via the skin is an important phenomenon in the assessment of the risk of exposure to these substances. People are exposed to a variety of substances and products via the skin, either directly or indirectly, while at work, at home or in public space. Pesticides, organic

  6. Risk assessment as an argumentation game

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prakken, Henry; Ionita, Dan; Wieringa, Roel; Leite, J.; Son, T.C.; Torrini, P.; Van Der Torre, L.; Woltran, S.

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores the idea that IT security risk assessment can be formalized as an argumentation game in which assessors argue about how the system can be attacked by a threat agent and defended by the assessors. A system architecture plus assumptions about the environment is specified as an ASPI

  7. Methodology for qualitative urban flooding risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitão, João P; Almeida, Maria do Céu; Simões, Nuno E; Martins, André

    2013-01-01

    Pluvial or surface flooding can cause significant damage and disruption as it often affects highly urbanised areas. Therefore it is essential to accurately identify consequences and assess the risks associated with such phenomena. The aim of this study is to present the results and investigate the applicability of a qualitative flood risk assessment methodology in urban areas. This methodology benefits from recent developments in urban flood modelling, such as the dual-drainage modelling concept, namely one-dimensional automatic overland flow network delineation tools (e.g. AOFD) and 1D/1D models incorporating both surface and sewer drainage systems. To assess flood risk, the consequences can be estimated using hydraulic model results, such as water velocities and water depth results; the likelihood was estimated based on the return period of historical rainfall events. To test the methodology two rainfall events with return periods of 350 and 2 years observed in Alcântara (Lisbon, Portugal) were used and three consequence dimensions were considered: affected public transportation services, affected properties and pedestrian safety. The most affected areas in terms of flooding were easily identified; the presented methodology was shown to be easy to implement and effective to assess flooding risk in urban areas, despite the common difficulties in obtaining data.

  8. Dermal absorption and toxicological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buist, H.

    2016-01-01

    Absorption of toxic substances via the skin is an important phenomenon in the assessment of the risk of exposure to these substances. People are exposed to a variety of substances and products via the skin, either directly or indirectly, while at work, at home or in public space. Pesticides, organic

  9. Incorporating Agency Into Climate Change Risk Assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R.N. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, 3195 (Australia)

    2004-11-01

    Human agency has been viewed as a problem for climate change assessments because of its contribution to uncertainty. In this editorial, I outline the advantages of agency in managing climate change risks, describing how those advantages can be placed within a probabilistic framework.

  10. Health Risk Assessment for Organotins in Textiles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen PJCM; Veen MP van; Speijers GJA; CSR; LBM

    2000-01-01

    In January 1998 RIVM was asked to carry out a preliminary risk assessment on organic tin compounds (organotins) in textiles. Measurements carried out by the Dutch Health Protection Inspectorate had shown these potentially toxic compounds to be present in several consumer products, including items of

  11. New risk assessment tools in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kraker, H. de; Douwes, M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper an introduction to and description of the risk assessment tools that are freely available for companies in The Netherlands is given. It is explained in what way the tools can and should be used and how the level I checklist for physical load and the level II instruments are related. Th

  12. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available tec

  13. Simulation modeling for microbial risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassin, M H; Paoli, G M; Lammerding, A M

    1998-11-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessment implies an estimation of the probability and impact of adverse health outcomes due to microbial hazards. In the case of food safety, the probability of human illness is a complex function of the variability of many parameters that influence the microbial environment, from the production to the consumption of a food. The analytical integration required to estimate the probability of foodborne illness is intractable in all but the simplest of models. Monte Carlo simulation is an alternative to computing analytical solutions. In some cases, a risk assessment may be commissioned to serve a larger purpose than simply the estimation of risk. A Monte Carlo simulation can provide insights into complex processes that are invaluable, and otherwise unavailable, to those charged with the task of risk management. Using examples from a farm-to-fork model of the fate of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef hamburgers, this paper describes specifically how such goals as research prioritization, risk-based characterization of control points, and risk-based comparison of intervention strategies can be objectively achieved using Monte Carlo simulation.

  14. Housing conditions in calves welfare risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Relić Renata R.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows results of calf welfare risk assessment at intensive breeding farms. Assessment has been conducted on the basis of housing conditions which can have negative influence on welfare of cattle, especially in calf category considering their needs. According to analysis results very good housing conditions were confirmed in open shed rearing stall (C and closed type rearing stall without feeding yard (A, whilst in closed rearing stall with feeding yard (B housing conditions were estimated as acceptable. Based on collected data about housing conditions, we have estimated that the least risk for calf welfare is at C farm, slightly higher at A farm and the highest at B farm. Data about housing conditions and analysis of potential welfare risk factors show possible causes for already present health and other problems with animals, which also can reappear in future. However for that reason, applying described methods can increase rearing conditions and increase production at cattle farms.

  15. Fragility fracture: recent developments in risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aspray, Terry J

    2015-02-01

    More than half of older women who sustain a fragility fracture do not have osteoporosis by World Health Organization (WHO) bone mineral density (BMD) criteria; and, while BMD has been used to assess fracture risk for over 30 years, a range of other skeletal and nonskeletal clinical risk factors (CRFs) for fracture have been recognized. More than 30 assessment tools using CRFs have been developed, some predicting fracture risk and others low BMD alone. Recent systematic reviews have reported that many tools have not been validated against fracture incidence, and that the complexity of tools and the number of CRFs included do not ensure best performance with poor assessment of (internal or comparative) validity. Internationally, FRAX® is the most commonly recommended tool, in addition to QFracture in the UK, The Canadian Association of Radiologists and Osteoporosis Canada (CAROC) tool in Canada and Garvan in Australia. All tools estimate standard 10-year risk of major osteoporotic and 10-year risk of hip fracture: FRAX® is able to estimate fracture risk either with or without BMD, but CAROC and Garvan both require BMD and QFracture does not. The best evidence for the utility of these tools is in case finding but there may be future prospects for the use of 10-year fracture risk as a common currency with reference to the benefits of treatment, whether pharmacological or lifestyle. The use of this metric is important in supporting health economic analyses. However, further calibration studies will be needed to prove that the tools are robust and that their estimates can be used in supporting treatment decisions, independent of BMD.

  16. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  17. Benefit-Risk Assessment in Drug Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sarac, Sinan

    This thesis covers the development, testing and use of an eight-step structured method for data-driven benefit-risk assessment. The aim of this thesis was to create a tailored method for the assessment of clinical data. The focus has been on three major aspects: (i) A simple preliminary method....... In total, four pilot studies and internal workshops were conducted. The method was therefore developed in an iterative fashion. The method involves eight successive steps: 1) establishment of the decision context, 2) identification of benefit and risk criteria, 3) weighting, 4) scoring, 5) evaluation...... and supported by a qualitative framework with built-in quantitative measures. However, at the same time the method is transparent in the sense that all assumptions made in the various steps of the assessment are clearly expressed all the way to the final decision. This is important both to avoid that unreported...

  18. Behavioral toxicology, risk assessment, and chlorinated hydrocarbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evangelista de Duffard, A.M.; Duffard, R. [Laboratorio de Toxicologia Experimental, Santa Fe (Argentina)

    1996-04-01

    Behavioral end points are being used with greater frequency in neurotoxicology to detect and characterize the adverse effects of chemicals on the nervous system. Behavioral measures are particularly important for neurotoxicity risk assessment since many known neurotoxicants do not result in neuropathology. The chlorinated hydrocarbon class consists of a wide variety of chemicals including polychlorinated biphenyls, clioquinol, trichloroethylene, hexachlorophene, organochlorine insecticides (DDT, dicofol, chlordecone, dieldrin, and lindane), and phenoxyherbicides. Each of these chemicals has effects on motor, sensory, or cognitive function that are detectable using functional measures such as behavior. Furthermore, there is evidence that if exposure occurs during critical periods of development, many of the chlorinated hydrocarbons are developmental neurotoxicants. Developmental neurotoxicity is frequently expressed as alterations in motor function or cognitive abilities or charges in the ontogeny of sensorimotor reflexes. Neurotoxicity risk assessment should include assessments of the full range of possible neurotoxicological effects, including both structural and functional indicators of neurotoxicity. 121 refs., 1 tab.

  19. Levels and occupational health risk assessment of trace metals in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Levels and occupational health risk assessment of trace metals in soils from ... African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology ... The trace metal levels were subjected to risk assessment model to estimate toxic risks due to ...

  20. Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

  1. Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

    2016-02-01

    Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-04-01

    The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

  3. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David;

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... on three fragrance ingredients in order to provide a practical assessment of the predictive value of the QRA approach. It is important to have data to assess that the methodology provides a robust approach for primary prevention of contact sensitization induction for fragrance ingredients identified...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  4. A toolbox for rockfall Quantitative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agliardi, F.; Mavrouli, O.; Schubert, M.; Corominas, J.; Crosta, G. B.; Faber, M. H.; Frattini, P.; Narasimhan, H.

    2012-04-01

    Rockfall Quantitative Risk Analysis for mitigation design and implementation requires evaluating the probability of rockfall events, the probability and intensity of impacts on structures (elements at risk and countermeasures), their vulnerability, and the related expected costs for different scenarios. A sound theoretical framework has been developed during the last years both for spatially-distributed and local (i.e. single element at risk) analyses. Nevertheless, the practical application of existing methodologies remains challenging, due to difficulties in the collection of required data and to the lack of simple, dedicated analysis tools. In order to fill this gap, specific tools have been developed in the form of Excel spreadsheets, in the framework of Safeland EU project. These tools can be used by stakeholders, practitioners and other interested parties for the quantitative calculation of rock fall risk through its key components (probabilities, vulnerability, loss), using combinations of deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Three tools have been developed, namely: QuRAR (by UNIMIB), VulBlock (by UPC), and RiskNow-Falling Rocks (by ETH Zurich). QuRAR implements a spatially distributed, quantitative assessment methodology of rockfall risk for individual buildings or structures in a multi-building context (urban area). Risk is calculated in terms of expected annual cost, through the evaluation of rockfall event probability, propagation and impact probability (by 3D numerical modelling of rockfall trajectories), and empirical vulnerability for different risk protection scenarios. Vulblock allows a detailed, analytical calculation of the vulnerability of reinforced concrete frame buildings to rockfalls and related fragility curves, both as functions of block velocity and the size. The calculated vulnerability can be integrated in other methodologies/procedures based on the risk equation, by incorporating the uncertainty of the impact location of the rock

  5. Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  6. Flood risk assessment of land pollution hotspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masi, Matteo; Arrighi, Chiara; Iannelli, Renato

    2017-04-01

    Among the risks caused by extreme events, the potential spread of pollutants stored in land hotspots due to floods is an aspect that has been rarely examined with a risk-based approach. In this contribution, an attempt to estimate pollution risks related to flood events of land pollution hotspots was carried out. Flood risk has been defined as the combination of river flood hazard, hotspots exposure and vulnerability to contamination of the area, i.e. the expected severity of the environmental impacts. The assessment was performed on a geographical basis, using geo-referenced open data, available from databases of land management institutions, authorities and agencies. The list of land pollution hotspots included landfills and other waste handling facilities (e.g., temporary storage, treatment and recycling sites), municipal wastewater treatment plants, liquid waste treatment facilities and contaminated sites. The assessment was carried out by combining geo-referenced data of pollution hotspots with flood hazard maps. We derived maps of land pollution risk based on geographical and geological properties and source characteristics available from environmental authorities. These included information about soil particle size, soil hydraulic conductivity, terrain slope, type of stored pollutants, the type of facility, capacity, size of the area, land use, etc. The analysis was carried out at catchment scale. The case study of the Arno river basin in Tuscany (central Italy) is presented.

  7. Clinical risk assessment in intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Asefzadeh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin′s Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA. Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN was in respiratory care "Ventilator′s alarm malfunction (no alarm" with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal "not washing the NG-Tube" with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care.

  8. SITE COMPREHENSIVE LISTING (CERCLIS) (Superfund) - Non-NPL Sites

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Non-NPL Sites - The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Information System (CERCLIS) (Superfund) Public Access Database contains a...

  9. SITE COMPREHENSIVE LISTING (CERCLIS) - Contaminants at CERCLIS (Superfund) Sites

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Contaminants at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Information System (CERCLIS) (Superfund) Sites - The CERCLIS Public Access Database...

  10. SITE COMPREHENSIVE LISTING (CERCLIS) (Superfund) - Responsible Parties at CERCLIS Sites

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Responsible Parties at CERCLIS Sites - The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Information System (CERCLIS) (Superfund) Public Access...

  11. Groundwater Risk Assessment Model (GRAM: Groundwater Risk Assessment Model for Wellfield Protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nara Somaratne

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available A groundwater risk assessment was carried out for 30 potable water supply systems under a framework of protecting drinking water quality across South Australia. A semi-quantitative Groundwater Risk Assessment Model (GRAM was developed based on a “multi-barrier” approach using likelihood of release, contaminant pathway and consequence equation. Groundwater vulnerability and well integrity have been incorporated to the pathway component of the risk equation. The land use of the study basins varies from protected water reserves to heavily stocked grazing lands. Based on the risk assessment, 15 systems were considered as low risk, four as medium and 11 systems as at high risk. The GRAM risk levels were comparable with indicator bacteria—total coliform—detection. Most high risk systems were the result of poor well construction and casing corrosion rather than the land use. We carried out risk management actions, including changes to well designs and well operational practices, design to increase time of residence and setting the production zone below identified low permeable zones to provide additional barriers to contaminants. The highlight of the risk management element is the well integrity testing using down hole geophysical methods and camera views of the casing condition.

  12. Municipal solid waste management health risk assessment from air emissions for China by applying life cycle analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hua; Nitivattananon, Vilas; Li, Peng

    2015-05-01

    This study is to quantify and objectively evaluate the extent of environmental health risks from three waste treatment options suggested by the national municipal solid waste management enhancing strategy (No [2011] 9 of the State Council, promulgated on 19 April 2011), which includes sanitary landfill, waste-to-energy incineration and compost, together with the material recovery facility through a case study in Zhangqiu City of China. It addresses potential chronic health risks from air emissions to residential receptors in the impacted area. It combines field survey, analogue survey, design documents and life cycle inventory methods in defining the source strength of chemicals of potential concern. The modelling of life cycle inventory and air dispersion is via integrated waste management(IWM)-2 and Screening Air Dispersion Model (Version 3.0) (SCREEN3). The health risk assessment is in accordance with United States Environmental Protection Agency guidance Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS), Volume I: Human Health Evaluation Manual (Part F, Supplemental Guidance for Inhalation Risk Assessment). The exposure concentration is based on long-term exposure to the maximum ground level contaminant in air under the 'reasonable worst situation' emissions and then directly compared with reference for concentration and unit risk factor/cancer slope factor derived from the national air quality standard (for a conventional pollutant) and toxicological studies (for a specific pollutant). Results from this study suggest that the option of compost with material recovery facility treatment may pose less negative health impacts than other options; the sensitivity analysis shows that the landfill integrated waste management collection rate has a great influence on the impact results. Further investigation is needed to validate or challenge the findings of this study.

  13. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a “gold standard” for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307

  14. Can systematic reviews inform GMO risk assessment and risk management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian eKohl

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a gold standard for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper we 1 consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO and 2 critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  15. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  16. [Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Thadeu Estevam Moreira Maramaldo; Dias, Aline Peçanha Muzy; Scheidegger, Erica Miranda Damasio; Marin, Victor Augustus

    2011-01-01

    Since the commercial approve in 1996, the global area of transgenic crops has raised more than 50 times. In the last two decades, governments have been planning strategies and protocols for safety assessment of food and feed genetically modified (GM). Evaluation of food safety should be taken on a case-by-case analysis depending on the specific traits of the modified crops and the changes introduced by the genetic modification, using for this the concept of substantial equivalence. This work presents approaches for the risk assessment of GM food, as well as some problems related with the genetic construction or even with the expression of the inserted gene.

  17. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  18. Probabilistic risk assessment of disassembly procedures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O`Brien, D.A.; Bement, T.R.; Letellier, B.C.

    1993-11-01

    The purpose of this report is to describe the use of Probabilistic Risk (Safety) Assessment (PRA or PSA) at a Department of Energy (DOE) facility. PRA is a methodology for (i) identifying combinations of events that, if they occur, lead to accidents (ii) estimating the frequency of occurrence of each combination of events and (iii) estimating the consequences of each accident. Specifically the study focused on evaluating the risks associated with dissembling a hazardous assembly. The PRA for the operation included a detailed evaluation only for those potential accident sequences which could lead to significant off-site consequences and affect public health. The overall purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility of establishing a risk-consequence goal for DOE operations.

  19. Risk assessment of topically applied products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søborg, Tue; Basse, Line Hollesen; Halling-Sørensen, Bent

    2007-01-01

    The human risk of harmful substances in semisolid topical dosage forms applied topically to normal skin and broken skin, respectively, was assessed. Bisphenol A diglycidyl ether (BADGE) and three derivatives of BADGE previously quantified in aqueous cream and the UV filters 3-BC and 4-MBC were used...... as model compounds. Tolerable daily intake (TDI) values have been established for BADGE and derivatives. Endocrine disruption was chosen as endpoint for 3-BC and 4-MBC. Skin permeation of the model compounds was investigated in vitro using pig skin membranes. Tape stripping was applied to simulate broken...... parameters for estimating the risk. The immediate human risk of BADGE and derivatives in topical dosage forms was found to be low. However, local treatment of broken skin may lead to higher exposure of BADGE and derivatives compared to application to normal skin. 3-BC permeated skin at higher flux than 4-MBC...

  20. The Chornobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vargo, G.J. [ed.; Poyarkov, V.; Bar`yakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.; Kholosha, V.; Shestopalov, V.

    1999-10-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chornobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chornobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chornobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  1. Risk assessment meta tool LDRD final report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bouchard, Ann Marie; Osbourn, Gordon Cecil

    2006-12-01

    The goal of this project was to develop a risk analysis meta tool--a tool that enables security analysts both to combine and analyze data from multiple other risk assessment tools on demand. Our approach was based on the innovative self-assembling software technology under development by the project team. This technology provides a mechanism for the user to specify his intentions at a very high level (e.g., equations or English-like text), and then the code self-assembles itself, taking care of the implementation details. The first version of the meta tool focused specifically in importing and analyzing data from Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS) force-on-force simulation. We discuss the problem, our approach, technical risk, and accomplishments on this project, and outline next steps to be addressed with follow-on funding.

  2. Depression in primary care: assessing suicide risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Chung Wai Mark; How, Choon How; Ng, Yin Ping

    2017-01-01

    Major depression is a common condition seen in the primary care setting. This article describes the suicide risk assessment of a depressed patient, including practical aspects of history-taking, consideration of factors in deciding if a patient requires immediate transfer for inpatient care and measures to be taken if the patient is not hospitalised. It follows on our earlier article about the approach to management of depression in primary care. PMID:28210741

  3. Risk assessment of tailings facility dam failure

    OpenAIRE

    Hadzi-Nikolova, Marija; Mirakovski, Dejan; Stefanova, Violeta

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the consequences of tailings facility dam failure and therefore the needs for its risk assessment. Tailings are fine-grained wastes of the mining industry, output as slurries, due to mixing with water during mineral processing. Tailings dams vary a lot as it is affected by: tailings characteristics and mill output, site characteristics as: topography, hydrology, geology, groundwater, seismicity and available material and disposal methods. The talings which accumulat...

  4. Moving Forward in Human Cancer Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Paules, Richard S.; Aubrecht, Jiri; Corvi, Raffaella; Garthoff, Bernward; Kleinjans, Jos C.

    2010-01-01

    Background The current safety paradigm for assessing carcinogenic properties of drugs, cosmetics, industrial chemicals, and environmental exposures relies mainly on in vitro genotoxicity testing followed by 2-year rodent bioassays. This testing battery is extremely sensitive but has low specificity. Furthermore, rodent bioassays are associated with high costs, high animal burden, and limited predictive value for human risks. Objectives We provide a response to a growing appeal for a paradigm ...

  5. Gender, risk assessment, and political ambition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet-Cushman, Jennie

    2016-01-01

    In the United States, women have long held the right to vote and can participate fully in the political process, and yet they are underrepresented at all levels of elected office. Worldwide, men's dominance in the realm of politics has also been the norm. To date, scholars have focused on supply-side and demand-side explanations of women's underrepresentation but differences in how men and women assess electoral risk (the risk involved in seeking political office) are not fully explained. To fill this gap, I explore how evolutionary theory offers insights into gendered differences in political ambition and the evaluation of electoral risk. Using the framework of life-history theory, I hypothesize that both cognitive and environmental factors in human evolution, particularly as they relate to sexual selection and social roles, have shaped the psychology of ambition in gendered ways affecting contemporary politics. Cognitive risk-assessment mechanisms evolving in the hominid line came to be expressed differently in females and males, in women and men. These gendered expressions plausibly reflect differentiable environmental pressures in the past and may help explain behaviors in and barriers to women's electoral political activity in the present. If so, then the success of efforts to increase such activity - or, regressively, to suppress it - may be better understood.

  6. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  7. Selection of Dispersivity in Groundwater Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    武晓峰; 唐杰

    2004-01-01

    The Domenico model is used in combination with ASTM E 1739 in a Tier 2 risk assessment of chlorinated organic solvents contaminated groundwater sites to predict potential contaminant concentration in groundwater down-gradient from the point of exposure (POE). A knowledge of the dispersivity parameters is necessary for carrying out this calculation. A constant longitudinal dispersivity of 10 m is often used in analytical and numerical calculation. However, because of the scale effect of dispersion, two other main approaches are currently often used. From the viewpoint of conservative principle in risk assessment, it is necessary to determine which dispersivity data will give a higher predicted concentration, corresponding to a more conservative risk calculation. Generally, it is considered that a smaller dispersivity leads to a higher predicted concentration. This assumption is correct when dispersion is the only natural attenuation factor. However, degradation of commonly encountered chlorinated organic solvents in environment under natural condition has been widely reported. Calculations given in this paper of several representative cases show that a general consideration of the influence of dispersivity on concentration prediction is not always correct when a degradation term is included in the calculation. To give a conservative risk calculation, the scale effect of dispersion is considered. Calculations also show that the dispersivity parameters need to be determined by considering the POE distance from the source, the groundwater velocity, and the degradation rate of the contaminant.

  8. Weighted normalized risk factor for floods risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashraf Mohamed Elmoustafa

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA describes any structured approach used to determine overall preferences among alternative options, where options accomplish certain or several objectives. The flood protection of properties is a highly important issue due to the damage, danger and other hazards associated to it to human life, properties, and environment. To determine the priority of execution of protection works for any project, many aspects should be considered in order to decide the areas to start the data collection and analysis with. Multi criteria analysis techniques were tested and evaluated for the purpose of flood risk assessment, hydro-morphological parameters were used in this analysis. Finally a suitable technique was chosen and tested to be adopted as a mark of flood risk level and results were presented.

  9. Endocrine disrupting pesticides: implications for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinlay, R; Plant, J A; Bell, J N B; Voulvoulis, N

    2008-02-01

    Endocrine disrupting (ED) chemicals are compounds that alter the normal functioning of the endocrine system, potentially causing disease or deformity in organisms and their offspring. Pesticides are used widely to kill unwanted organisms in crops, public areas, homes and gardens and medicinally to kill parasites. Many are proven or suspected to be EDs. Ancient physiological similarities between different vertebrate groups suggest that disorders observed in wildlife may indicate risks to humans. This makes accurate risk assessment and effective legislation difficult. In this paper, the hazardous properties of pesticides which are known to have ED properties are reviewed in order to assess the implications for risk assessment. As well as data on sources of exposure in the United Kingdom (UK) an assessment of the evidence on the health effects of ED pesticides is also included. In total, 127 have been identified from the literature and their effects and modes of action are listed in this paper. Using the UK as a case study, the types and quantities of pesticides used, and their methods of application are assessed, along with their potential pathways to humans. In the UK reliable data are available only for agricultural use, so non-agricultural routes of pesticide exposure have been poorly quantified. The exposure of people resident in or visiting rural areas could also have been grossly under-estimated. Material links between ED pesticide use and specific illnesses or deformities are complicated by the multifactorial nature of disease, which can be affected by factors such as diet. Despite these difficulties, a large body of evidence has accumulated linking specific conditions to ED pesticides in wildlife and humans. A more precautionary approach to the use of ED pesticides, especially for non-essential purposes is proposed.

  10. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE REGULATED WATERCOURSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elżbieta Bondar-Nowakowska

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Ecological risk has not been identified well enough for the designers and contractors to take any actions for its limitation. It results from the lack of the basis formed to assess its level objectively. The aim of this study was to determine the standards useful in the evaluation of the ecological risk for aquatic plants in rivers, where it is planned to conduct regulatory works. The basis for the analysis were the results of the study performed in 2008–2014 in unmodified and transformed lowland watercourses in Lower Silesia. 41 study sections were analysed in 11 watercourses. 30 sections were located in regulated watercourses, while 11 were in unmodified streams. The research included vascular aquatic plants identification and the degree of the bottom coverage by these plants. As a result of regulatory works qualitative and quantitative changes in aquatic plants communities were observed. The analysis of these changes concerning the range and conditions of works conduction enabled assigning measures to the factors of the considered risk. It served as a basis for describing the risk register and the matrix of risk. The study demonstrated that the most important threats resulting from the river regulation from the point of view of environmental protection are complete shading of watercourse bed, and in some cases, bed widening and deepening, embankments slope of 1: 1, 1: 0, embankments protection with stone material or their concreting.

  11. 77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    ... Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals Related to Knowledge.'' The... an issue paper entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science...' knowledge about drugs' risks; (2) share current FDA experience regarding social science assessments...

  12. Risk assessment methodology for the forniture industrial sector

    OpenAIRE

    Rodrigues, Matilde A.

    2014-01-01

    Companies need to constantly make decisions about risk. They need to decide if a certain risk level is low enough or if some measures for its reduction are still needed. In this regard, risk assessment appears as a basis for the decision-making about risks. However, risk acceptance is an important issue related to the risk assessment process, which may put into question its appropriateness. Despite the importance of risk acceptance, this subject is insufficiently discussed in the literature r...

  13. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  14. Risk-Based Assessment of Structural Robustness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oana-Mihaela Ioniţă

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Providing safety of structures is one of the main aims of design. In traditional design it is achieved by designing structural components against specified limit states. However, as showed the Ronan Point collapse in UK in 1968, when a gas explosion in one of flats on the 18-th floor of the residential building caused the failure of an entire section of the building, this approach is not sufficient. The approach does not exclude the risk of local damage to a structure due to accidental events that can occur during service life of the structure. While probability of occurrence of such events for ordinary structures is low, and, therefore, they are not considered explicitly in design, their effect on structural safety becomes significant if the structure is not robust, that is when some local damage can trigger a chain reaction of failures causing collapse of the whole structure or of a major part of it, the so called progressive collapse. The purpose of this paper is to outline the basic premises for the utilization of risk assessment in evaluating the robustness of structures. In the following the robustness assessment is understood as a process of decision making based on risks.

  15. Risk assessment of poultry sloughterhouses in Albania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ROVENA JAHELEZI

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to assess the risk of poultry slaughterhouses in order to achieve a better official inspection. Study is taking place in 5 poultry slaughterhouses in Albania. The study was conducted through two tasks: poultry slaughterhouses classification related to the risk assessment based on the characteristics of the plant, product characteristics, production, hygiene processes, HACCP, and on the identification of presence of Salmonella spp in the slaughterhouse environment and in the final product. In every slaughterhouse, inspections are performed every 3 months, by completing the appropriate checklist using point’s evaluation. The results show that 5 slaughterhouses resulted in high risk (over 42 points. The detection of Salmonella spp in poultry carcasses is based on ISO 6579: 2002 method. 25 meat samples were analyzed in total where, out of which only one sample resulted with the presence of Salmonella spp in 25 gr. These results are due to an inappropriate Hygienic Practice, Manufacturing Practice and show that HACCP isnotimplementedrigorously.

  16. Spent Nuclear Fuel Alternative Technology Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perella, V.F.

    1999-11-29

    A Research Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Task Team (RRTT) was chartered by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Spent Fuel Management with the responsibility to recommend a course of action leading to a final technology selection for the interim management and ultimate disposition of the foreign and domestic aluminum-based research reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF) under DOE''s jurisdiction. The RRTT evaluated eleven potential SNF management technologies and recommended that two technologies, direct co-disposal and an isotopic dilution alternative, either press and dilute or melt and dilute, be developed in parallel. Based upon that recommendation, the Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) organized the SNF Alternative Technology Program to further develop the direct co-disposal and melt and dilute technologies and provide a WSRC recommendation to DOE for a preferred SNF alternative management technology. A technology risk assessment was conducted as a first step in this recommendation process to determine if either, or both, of the technologies posed significant risks that would make them unsuitable for further development. This report provides the results of that technology risk assessment.

  17. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  18. Relationships Between Animal Health Monitoring and the Risk Assessment Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salman MD

    2001-03-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is part of the risk analysis process as it is used in veterinary medicine to estimate risks related to international trade and food safety. Data from monitoring and surveillance systems (MO&SS are used throughout the risk assessment process for hazard identification, release assessment, exposure assessment and consequence assessment. As the quality of risk assessments depends to a large extent on the availability and quality of input data, there is a close relationship between MO&SS and risk assessment. In order to improve the quality of risk assessments, MO&SS should be designed according to minimum quality standards. Second, recent scientific developments on state-of-the-art design and analysis of surveys need to be translated into field applications and legislation. Finally, knowledge about the risk assessment process among MO&SS planners and managers should be promoted in order to assure high-quality data.

  19. Harmonization of international risk assessment protocol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toyofuku, Hajime [Food Safety Department, WHO, Geneva (Switzerland)]. E-mail toyofuku@nihs.go.jp

    2006-07-01

    For over centuries developments in food production and new food safety management systems in most developed countries have been perceived by many to be efficient in the prevention of food-borne disease. Nevertheless a number of problems remain dominant, one of these being the high level of food-borne microbiological disease which seems, for some pathogens, to have increased over the last decades. The development of an interdisciplinary approach with direct interaction between surveillance and risk analysis systems is described as a potential basis for improved prevention of food-borne disease. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment is a relatively new scientific approach, able to link data from food within the entire food chain and the various data on human disease to provide a clear estimation of risk. Today food safety is one of the WHOs top eleven priorities; the Organization calls for more systematic and aggressive steps to be taken to reduce significantly the risk of microbiological food-borne diseases. Dealing with this challenge is one of the major challenges for the 21st century in regard to food safety, implying a significant re-direction of food microbiology efforts in many parts of the world.

  20. Risk Assessment in Advanced Engineering Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Holický

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Traditional methods for designing of civil engineering structures and other engineering systems are frequently based on the concept of target probability of failure. However, this fundamental quantity is usually specified on the basis of comparative studies and past experience only. Moreover, probabilistic design methods suffer from several deficiencies, including lack of consideration for accidental and other hazard situations and their consequences. Both of these extreme conditions are more and more frequently becoming causes of serious failures and other adverse events. Available experience clearly indicates that probabilistic design procedures may be efficiently supplemented by a risk analysis and assessment, which can take into account various consequences of unfavourable events. It is therefore anticipated that in addition to traditional probabilistic concepts the methods of advanced engineering design will also commonly include criteria for acceptable risks.

  1. Flood risk assessment: concepts, modelling, applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Tsakiris

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Natural hazards have caused severe consequences to the natural, modified and human systems, in the past. These consequences seem to increase with time due to both higher intensity of the natural phenomena and higher value of elements at risk. Among the water related hazards flood hazards have the most destructive impacts. The paper presents a new systemic paradigm for the assessment of flood hazard and flood risk in the riverine flood prone areas. Special emphasis is given to the urban areas with mild terrain and complicated topography, in which 2-D fully dynamic flood modelling is proposed. Further the EU flood directive is critically reviewed and examples of its implementation are presented. Some critical points in the flood directive implementation are also highlighted.

  2. Risk assessment of soybean-based phytoestrogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwack, Seung Jun; Kim, Kyu-Bong; Kim, Hyung Sik; Yoon, Kyung Sil; Lee, Byung Mu

    2009-01-01

    Koreans generally consume high quantities of soybean-based foods that contain a variety of phytoestrogens, such as, daidzein, zenistein, and biochalin A. However, phytoestrogens are considered to be potential endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDC), which interfere with the normal function of the hormonal and reproductive systems. Therefore, dietary exposure to soybean-based phytoestrogens is of concern for Koreans, and comparative dietary risk assessments are required between Japanese (high consumers) versus Americans (low consumers). In this study, a relative risk assessment was conducted based upon daily intake levels of soybean-based foods and phytoestrogens in a Korean cohort, and the risks of photoestrogens were compared with those posed by estradiol and other EDC. Koreans approximately 30-49 yr of age consume on average a total of 135.2 g/d of soy-based foods including soybean, soybean sauce, soybean paste, and soybean oil, and 0.51 mg/kg body weight (bw)/d of phytoestrogens such as daidzein and genistein. Using estimated daily intakes (EDI) and estrogenic potencies (EP), margins of safety (MOS) were calculated where 0.05 is for estradiol (MOS value estrogenic effect); thus, MOS values of 1.89 for Japanese, 1.96 for Koreans, and 5.55 for Americans indicate that consumption of soybean-based foods exerted no apparent estrogenic effects, as all MOS values were all higher than 1. For other synthetic EDC used as reference values, MOS values were dieldrin 27, nonylphenol 250, butyl benzyl phthalate 321, bisphenol A 1000, biochanin A 2203, and coumesterol 2898. These results suggest that dietary exposure to phytoestrogens, such as daidzein and genistein, poses a relatively higher health risk for humans than synthetic EDC, although MOS values were all greater than 1.

  3. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  4. 77 FR 28406 - Spent Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-14

    ... COMMISSION Spent Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Draft... issuing for public comment a draft NUREG, NUREG-2125, ``Spent Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment (SFTRA...): You may access publicly-available documents online in the NRC Library at...

  5. Lipid and Some Other Cardiovascular Risk Factors Assessment in a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Lipid and Some Other Cardiovascular Risk Factors Assessment in a Rural ... of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors (cardiovascular diseases [CVDs]) in ... and risk predictive index were higher in females while triglyceride (TG), high density ...

  6. Preliminary report on hepatic and cardiovascular risk assessment of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Preliminary report on hepatic and cardiovascular risk assessment of ... The triglyceride level, artherogenic and coronary risk index of the mechanics was higher ... risk, mechanics, lipid profile, cardiovascular disease, liver dysfunction, benzene.

  7. Risk assessment of power systems models, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Wenyuan

    2014-01-01

    Risk Assessment of Power Systems addresses the regulations and functions of risk assessment with regard to its relevance in system planning, maintenance, and asset management. Brimming with practical examples, this edition introduces the latest risk information on renewable resources, the smart grid, voltage stability assessment, and fuzzy risk evaluation. It is a comprehensive reference of a highly pertinent topic for engineers, managers, and upper-level students who seek examples of risk theory applications in the workplace.

  8. Risk Assessment tailored to cryogenics - LINDE approach

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    The following Risk Assessment Tools will be presented: **HAZID – Hazard Identification Study** Application: if the process contains new applications or provides new challenges (e.g. plant location) Purpose: Identify hazards such as fire/explosion, toxic impact, occupational hazards etc. and assess adequate preventive / mitigation measures **HAZOP – Hazard and Operability Study** Application: for all Projects Purpose: Detailed review of design reflected in the PID to ensure that adequate safeguards are available for all possible process upsets or maloperations. **HAZAN – Hazard Analysis** Application: for all PFHE (plate-fin heat exchangers), CWHE (coil wound heat exchangers) and straight tube sheet heat exchangers Purpose: detailed analysis of the impact of process upset conditions and start-up / shut down scenarios on the lifetime of the heat exchangers – including definition of additional safeguards, if required. **TQR – Technology Qualification Review** Application: for applications...

  9. Post-Remediation Biomonitoring of Pesticides in Marine Waters Near the United Heckathorn Superfund Site, Richmond, California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LD Antrim; NP Kohn

    2000-09-05

    This report, PNNL-11911 Rev. 1, was published in July 2000 and replaces PNNL-11911, which was published in September 1998. The revision corrects tissue concentration units that were reported as dry weight but were actually wet weight, and updates conclusions based on the correct reporting units. Marine sediment remediation at the United Heckathorn Superfund Site was completed in April 1997. Water and mussel tissues were sampled in January 1998 from four stations near Lauritzen Canal in Richmond, California, for the first post-remediation monitoring of marine areas near the United Heckathorn Site. Dieldrin and DDT were analyzed in water samples, tissue samples from resident mussels, and tissue samples from transplanted mussels deployed for 4 months. Concentrations of dieldrin and total DDT in water and total DDT in tissue were compared to pre-remediation data available from the California State Mussel Watch program (tissues) and the Ecological Risk Assessment for the United Heckathorn Superfund Site (tissues and water). Chlorinated pesticide concentrations in water samples were similar to pre-remediation levels and did not meet remediation goals. Mean dieldrin concentrations in water ranged from 0.65 ng/L to 18.1 ng/L and were higher than the remediation goal (0.14 ng/L) at all stations. Mean total DDT concentrations in water ranged from 0.65 ng/L to 103 ng/L and exceeded the remediation goal of 0.59 ng/L. The highest concentrations of both pesticides were found in Lauritzen Canal, and the lowest levels were from the Richmond Inner Harbor Channel water. Unusual amounts of detritus in the water column at the time of sampling, particularly in Lauritzen Canal, could have contributed to the elevated pesticide concentrations and poor analytical precision.

  10. 78 FR 23901 - Interagency Risk Assessment-Listeria monocytogenes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-23

    ... Food Safety and Inspection Service Interagency Risk Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail... risk assessment (QRA), ``Interagency Risk Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens... and on the FSIS Web site at http://www.fsis.usda.gov/PDF/Listeria-Transcript_062309.pdf ). II....

  11. Laboratory Biosafety and Biosecurity Risk Assessment Technical Guidance Document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Astuto-Gribble, Lisa M; Caskey, Susan Adele

    2014-07-01

    The purpose of this document is threefold: 1) to describe the laboratory bio safety and biosecurity risk assessment process and its conceptual framework; 2) provide detailed guidance and suggested methodologies on how to conduct a risk assessment; and 3) present some practical risk assessment process strategies using realistic laboratory scenarios.

  12. 75 FR 70009 - Development of Health Risk Assessment Guidance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-16

    ... HUMAN SERVICES Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Development of Health Risk Assessment Guidance... guidance concerning Health Risk Assessment (HRAs). Section 4103 of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) (Pub. L. 111-148) requires that a health risk assessment be included in the annual wellness visit benefit...

  13. Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

    2013-10-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

  14. Risk Assessment Model for Mobile Malware

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Stanescu

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The mobile technology is considered to be the fastest-developing IT security area. Only in the last year security threats around mobile devices have reached new heights in terms of both quality and quantity. The speed of this development has made possible several types of security attacks that, until recently, were only possible on computers. In terms of the most targeted mobile operating systems, Android continues to be the most vulnerable, although new ways of strengthening its security model were introduced by Google. The aim of this article is to provide a model for assessing the risk of mobile infection with malware, starting from a statistical analysis of the permissions required by each application installed into the mobile system. The software implementation of this model will use the Android operating system and in order to do so, we will start by analyzing its permission-based security architecture. Furthermore, based on statistical data regarding the most dangerous permissions, we build the risk assessment model and, to prove its efficiency, we scan some of the most popular apps and interpret the results. To this end, we offer an overview of the strengths and weaknesses of this permission-based model and we also state a short conclusion regarding model’s efficiency.

  15. Physical characterization of MMVF for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, T

    1995-10-01

    Size and other physical properties of MMVF play a central role in risk assessment. They can be affected by, for example, conditions during manufacturing, and preparation prior to administration to experimental animals or cells. It is suggested that a necessary requirement for stating that an experiment has been repeated should be documented evidence that: (i) the administered fibres are alike when analysed with not less than a minimum number of well-established methods on single fibre and on bulk sample level; and (ii) doses must be equal, and the fibre concentrations and sizes at the primary target tissue must be documented. Assessment of fibre toxicity and assessment of potential for exposure are equally important in the risk assessment process. The physics of fibrous dust release is described and methods for a priori assessment of exposure are classified into three levels depending on the analytical effort involved: (1) direct analysis of the fibrous bulk material; (2) bench-scale test; and (3) full-scale tests of prefabricated insulation material in a test room during standardized insulation work. For the first method, two approaches are investigated. One relates the size-dependent measures (the mass of fibres with D fractions (the fraction of total fibre length with D fraction of WHO fibre number, and the fraction of fibre number with D fractions only range up to 2 orders of magnitude and are almost independent on GSD(D) for nominal diameters ranging 2-4 microns. The combined effect on exposure of bulk fibre size, and of addition of oil and binder, should be assessed by the rotating drum dustiness test. The gold standard test of prefabricated MMVF products should be a full-scale simulation. The slope of the curve relating overall average product nominal diameter and airborne fibre concentrations on a log-log scale [Esmen et al., Am. ind. Hyg. Ass.J. 40, 108-117 (1979)] has been confirmed on a qualitative basis using model calculations, so that this relation

  16. Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

    2014-12-01

    Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants.

  17. A classification scheme for risk assessment methods.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stamp, Jason Edwin; Campbell, Philip LaRoche

    2004-08-01

    This report presents a classification scheme for risk assessment methods. This scheme, like all classification schemes, provides meaning by imposing a structure that identifies relationships. Our scheme is based on two orthogonal aspects--level of detail, and approach. The resulting structure is shown in Table 1 and is explained in the body of the report. Each cell in the Table represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. This report imposes structure on the set of risk assessment methods in order to reveal their relationships and thus optimize their usage.We present a two-dimensional structure in the form of a matrix, using three abstraction levels for the rows and three approaches for the columns. For each of the nine cells in the matrix we identify the method type by name and example. The matrix helps the user understand: (1) what to expect from a given method, (2) how it relates to other methods, and (3) how best to use it. Each cell in the matrix represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. The matrix, with type names in the cells, is introduced in Table 2 on page 13 below. Unless otherwise stated we use the word 'method' in this report to refer to a 'risk assessment method', though often times we use the full phrase. The use of the terms 'risk assessment' and 'risk management' are close enough that we do not attempt to distinguish them in this report. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In

  18. Assessing the Invasion Risk of Eucalyptus in the United States Using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doria R. Gordon

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Many agricultural species have undergone selection for traits that are consistent with those that increase the probability that a species will become invasive. However, the risk of invasion may be accurately predicted for the majority of plant species tested using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment (WRA. This system has been tested in multiple climates and geographies and, on average, correctly identifies 90% of the major plant invaders as having high invasion risk, and 70% of the noninvaders as having low risk. We used this tool to evaluate the invasion risk of 38 Eucalyptus taxa currently being tested and cultivated in the USA for pulp, biofuel, and other purposes. We predict 15 taxa to have low risk of invasion, 14 taxa to have high risk, and 9 taxa to require further information. In addition to a history of naturalization and invasiveness elsewhere, the traits that significantly contribute to a high invasion risk conclusion include having prolific seed production and a short generation time. Selection against these traits should reduce the probability that eucalypts cultivated in the USA will become invasive threats to natural areas and agricultural systems.

  19. Assessment and insurance risk of foreign economic activity: accounting aspect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.V. Susyuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Based on research approaches to risk positioning grounded classification of risks arising in foreign trade activity. Deals with issues of assessment and insurance risks expediency display your losses from them. To reduce the negative impact of risks the theoretical foundations of security and practical advice with his reflection in the system of accounts. Grounded algorithm to select the most suitable method of risk assessment and constructed flowchart automation choice method for assessing the risk of foreign trade. The expediency of development of self-insurance risks of foreign economic activity.

  20. Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remington, Benjamin C.

    2017-09-01

    Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

  1. [Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

    2012-12-01

    Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

  2. Ecological risk assessment conceptual model formulation for nonindigenous species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G

    2004-08-01

    This article addresses the application of ecological risk assessment at the regional scale to the prediction of impacts due to invasive or nonindigenous species (NIS). The first section describes risk assessment, the decision-making process, and introduces regional risk assessment. A general conceptual model for the risk assessment of NIS is then presented based upon the regional risk assessment approach. Two diverse examples of the application of this approach are presented. The first example is based upon the dynamics of introduced plasmids into bacteria populations. The second example is the application risk assessment approach to the invasion of a coastal marine site of Cherry Point, Washington, USA by the European green crab. The lessons learned from the two examples demonstrate that assessment of the risks of invasion of NIS will have to incorporate not only the characteristics of the invasive species, but also the other stresses and impacts affecting the region of interest.

  3. Ecological Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Higher Plants (GMHP)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, C.; Damgaard, C.; Kjellsson, G.

    of the project Biotechnology: elements in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants. December 1999 Christian Kjær Introduction In ecological risk assessment of transgenic plants, information on a wide range of subjects is needed for an effective and reliable assessment procedure...... the actual risk assessment procedures and the risk evaluation, which must proceed the data collection. The report use the terminology ecological risk assessment rather than environmental risk assessment because at present this work does not include bio-geochemical effects and environmental impacts from...... for uncertainties in the extrapolation from limited laboratory studies to the species rich field environment. The relationship between the size of the safety factor and the number of species is therefore an issue of the risk assessment. Some of the issues raised in this report overlap with data needs...

  4. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi

    2013-11-01

    Measurements of radon gas (222Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the 226Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m-3 to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m-3, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m-3 to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m-3, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m-3 to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m-3, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m-3 to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m-3 and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m-3 to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m-3, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m-3, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m-3, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m-3 and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m-3, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the action level for radon gas of 148 Bq m-3 proposed by EPA except monazite 0.15 kg, struverite 0.15 kg and 0.25 kg. Whereas

  5. DETERMINANTS OF RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS IN CRITICAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

    OpenAIRE

    Przemysław Borkowski

    2016-01-01

    Article deals with the problem of risk assessment in critical energy infrastructure. Firstly the critical infrastructure in energy sector is discussed than risk identification methodology for application to critical infrastructure is proposed. Specific conditions resulting from features of critical infrastructure are addressed in the context of risk assessment procedure. The limits of such a procedure are outlined and critical factors influencing different stages of risk assessment process a...

  6. DETERMINANTS OF RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS IN CRITICAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemysław Borkowski

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Article deals with the problem of risk assessment in critical energy infrastructure. Firstly the critical infrastructure in energy sector is discussed than risk identification methodology for application to critical infrastructure is proposed. Specific conditions resulting from features of critical infrastructure are addressed in the context of risk assessment procedure. The limits of such a procedure are outlined and critical factors influencing different stages of risk assessment process are researched in view of specificity of the sector.

  7. Comparative Assessment Of Natural Gas Accident Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burgherr, P.; Hirschberg, S

    2005-01-01

    The study utilizes a hierarchical approach including (1) comparative analyses of different energy chains, (2) specific evaluations for the natural gas chain, and (3) a detailed overview of the German situation, based on an extensive data set provided by Deutsche Vereinigung des Gas- und Wasserfaches (DVGW). According to SVGW-expertise DVGW-data can be regarded as fully representative for Swiss conditions due to very similar technologies, management, regulations and safety culture, but has a substantially stronger statistical basis because the German gas grid is about 30 times larger compared to Switzerland. Specifically, the following tasks were carried out by PSI to accomplish the objectives of this project: (1) Consolidation of existing ENSAD data, (2) identification and evaluation of additional sources, (3) comparative assessment of accident risks, and (4) detailed evaluations of specific issues and technical aspects for severe and smaller accidents in the natural gas chain that are relevant under Swiss conditions. (author)

  8. Assessing the Environmental Risks of Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    Assessing the environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (NM) is currently an intensely contested subject among scientists, organizations, governments, and policymakers. The shear number, variety, and market penetration of NM in consumer goods and other applications, including environmental...... to a wide range of technical limitations. For instance, serious knowledge gaps remain within e.g. the detection of NM in the environment, developing adequate testing equipment and protocols, and toxicity endpoints (Grieger et al., 2009). In the past few years, many scientists and organizations have...... of uncertainty, degree of precaution, inclusion of quantitative or qualitative data, inclusion of life-cycle perspective, iterative and/or adaptive, ensuring timely decision making, and degree of transparency. This analysis can ultimately assist scientists, government agencies, organizations, and other...

  9. Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. Kinoshita

    2013-06-01

    The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module

  10. Miniature Biosensor with Health Risk Assessment Feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Andrea; Downs, Meghan; Kalogera, Kent; Buxton, Roxanne; Cooper, Tommy; Cooper, Alan; Cooper, Ross

    2016-01-01

    Heart rate (HR) monitoring is a medical requirement during exercise on the International Space Station (ISS), fitness tests, and extravehicular activity (EVA); however, NASA does not currently have the technology to consistently and accurately monitor HR and other physiological data during these activities. Performance of currently available HR monitor technologies is dependent on uninterrupted contact with the torso and are prone to data drop-out and motion artifact. Here, we seek an alternative to the chest strap and electrode based sensors currently in use on ISS today. This project aims to develop a high performance, robust earbud based biosensor with focused efforts on improved HR data quality during exercise or EVA. A health risk assessment algorithm will further advance the goals of autonomous crew health care for exploration missions.

  11. Risk-Assessment for Equipment Operating on the Lunar Surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, R. C.; Kusiak, A.; Ramachandran, N.

    2008-01-01

    Particle-size distribution of lunar dust simulant is evaluated using scanning electron spectroscopy in order to consider approaches to evaluating risk to individual mechanical components operating on the lunar surface. Assessing component risk and risk-mitigation during actual operations will require noninvasive continuous data gathering on numerous parameters. Those data sets would best be evaluated using data-mining algorithms to assess risk, and recovery from risk, of individual mechanical components in real-time.

  12. Inhalation cancer risk assessment of cobalt metal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suh, Mina; Thompson, Chad M; Brorby, Gregory P; Mittal, Liz; Proctor, Deborah M

    2016-08-01

    Cobalt compounds (metal, salts, hard metals, oxides, and alloys) are used widely in various industrial, medical and military applications. Chronic inhalation exposure to cobalt metal and cobalt sulfate has caused lung cancer in rats and mice, as well as systemic tumors in rats. Cobalt compounds are listed as probable or possible human carcinogens by some agencies, and there is a need for quantitative cancer toxicity criteria. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has derived a provisional inhalation unit risk (IUR) of 0.009 per μg/m(3) based on a chronic inhalation study of soluble cobalt sulfate heptahydrate; however, a recent 2-year cancer bioassay affords the opportunity to derive IURs specifically for cobalt metal. The mechanistic data support that the carcinogenic mode of action (MOA) is likely to involve oxidative stress, and thus, non-linear/threshold mechanisms. However, the lack of a detailed MOA and use of high, toxic exposure concentrations in the bioassay (≥1.25 mg/m(3)) preclude derivation of a reference concentration (RfC) protective of cancer. Several analyses resulted in an IUR of 0.003 per μg/m(3) for cobalt metal, which is ∼3-fold less potent than the provisional IUR. Future research should focus on establishing the exposure-response for key precursor events to improve cobalt metal risk assessment.

  13. Coenoses risk assessment in industry (resource specificity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tyaglov Sergey, G.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The modernization of the economic infrastructure of modern Russia is now essential, taking a natural limiter necessary momentum, which is especially important in the current conditions of global trends and taking into account the efforts taken by the State, aimed at large-scale growth of production of Russian companies. This paper discusses the direction of overcoming the problem of lack of access to financial services to business entities, due to the lack of a universal tool to identify risks in the provision of credit resources to the understanding that, despite the differences in interpretation of Russian and foreign sources, is a complex of ontological perception of researchers, proposed expanded by generally accepted phenomenon of self-organization. It is proposed to assess the risks of the enterprises on the basis of the provisions of coenoses theory, which allows using a few key parameters to determine the degree of efficiency of use of available resources, to identify the stability of the enterprise as a system and predict its dynamic changes.

  14. Feasibility study for the United Heckathorn Superfund Site, Richmond, California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lincoff, A.H. [US Environmental Protection Agency, San Francisco, CA (United States). Region IX; Costan, G.P.; Montgomery, M.S.; White, P.J. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1994-07-01

    The United Heckathom Superfund Site in Richmond, California, was used to formulate pesticides from approximately 1947 to 1966. Soils at the site and sediments in the harbor were contaminated with various chlorinated pesticides, primarily DDT, as a result of these activities. The US Environmental Protection Agency listed the site on the Superfund National Priorities List in 1990. This document is part of the Remedial Investigation and Feasibility Study phase of the Superfund response, which will provide the basis for selection of a final remedy that will protect human health and the environment and achieve compliance with federal and state envirorunental laws.

  15. A Successful ED Fall Risk Program Using the KINDER 1 Fall RiskAssessment Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townsend, Ann B; Valle-Ortiz, Marisol; Sansweet, Tracy

    2016-11-01

    Emergency nurses did not perform falls risk assessments routinely on our ED patients; the instrument used was aimed at inpatients. We identified a need to revise fall assessment practices specific to our emergency department. The purpose of the performance improvement project was to reduce ED falls and evaluate the use of an ED-specific fall risk tool, the KINDER 1 Fall Risk Assessment. The plan was to establish fall risk assessment practices at point of ED entry and to decrease total falls.

  16. Risk, surprises and black swans fundamental ideas and concepts in risk assessment and risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2014-01-01

    Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on.Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as 'Black Swans'. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them.

  17. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available This report is submitted as a deliverable of the SRP project Global Change Risk Analysis which aims at applying risk analysis as a unifying notion for quantifying and communicating threats to ecosystem services originating from global change...

  18. Periodontal risk assessment, diagnosis and treatment planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pihlstrom, B L

    2001-01-01

    The prevention and treatment of the periodontal diseases is based on accurate diagnosis, reduction or elimination of causative agents, risk management and correction of the harmful effects of disease. Prominent and confirmed risk factors or risk predictors for periodontitis in adults include smoking, diabetes, race, P. gingivalis, P. intermedia, low education, infrequent dental attendance and genetic influences. Several other specific periodontal bacteria, herpesviruses, increased age, male, sex, depression, race, traumatic occlusion and female osteoporosis in the presence of heavy dental calculus have been shown to be associated with loss of periodontal support and can be considered to be risk indicators of periodontitis. The presence of furcation involvement, tooth mobility, and a parafunctional habit without the use of a biteguard are associated with a poorer periodontal prognosis following periodontal therapy. An accurate diagnosis can only be made by a thorough evaluation of data that have been systematically collected by: 1) patient interview, 2) medical consultation as indicated, 3) clinical periodontal examination, 4) radiographic examination, and 5) laboratory tests as needed. Clinical signs of periodontal disease such as pocket depth, loss of clinical attachment and bone loss are cumulative measures of past disease. They do not provide the dentist with a current assessment of disease activity. In an attempt to improve the ability to predict future disease progression, several types of diagnostic tests have been studied, including host inflammatory products and mediators, enzymes, tissue breakdown products and subgingival temperature. In general, the usefulness of these tests for predicting future disease activity remains to be established in terms of sensitivity, specificity and predictive value. Although microbiological analysis of subgingival plaque is not necessary to diagnose and treat most patients with periodontitis, it is helpful when treating

  19. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    contaminant exposure scenario, drilling of natural gas wells near the site. The results of this risk evaluation will guide DOE's future surveillance and monitoring activities in the area to ensure that site conditions are adequately protective of human health. This evaluation is not a comprehensive risk assessment for the site; it is intended to provide assurance that DOE's monitoring approach can detect the presence of site-related contamination at levels well below those that would pose an unacceptable risk to human health.

  20. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Iain Brown

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government...

  1. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  2. Development and evolution of risk assessment for food allergens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crevel, R.W.R.; Baumert, J.L.; Baka, A.; Houben, G.F.; Knulst, A.C.; Kruizinga, A.G.; Luccioli, S.; Taylor, S.L.; Madsen, C.B.

    2014-01-01

    The need to assess the risk from food allergens derives directly from the need to manage effectively this food safety hazard. Work spanning the last two decades dispelled the initial thinking that food allergens were so unique that the risk they posed was not amenable to established risk assessment

  3. Critical notes on microbiological risk assessment of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reij, M.W.; Schothorst, van M.

    2000-01-01

    Although numerous papers on Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) of food products have been published, a number of issues related to it remain unresolved. This paper explains the role of Microbiological Risk Assessment in the context of Risk Analysis as outlined by Codex Alimentarius. It reviews so

  4. Violence Risk Assessment Practices in Denmark: A Multidisciplinary National Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nielsen Louise Hjort

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available With a quadrupling of forensic psychiatric patients in Denmark over the past 20 years, focus on violence risk assessment practices across the country has increased. However, information is lacking regarding Danish risk assessment practice across professional disciplines and clinical settings; little is known about how violence risk assessments are conducted, which instruments are used for what purposes, and how mental health professionals rate their utility and costs. As part of a global survey exploring the application of violence risk assessment across 44 countries, the current study investigated Danish practice across several professional disciplines and settings in which forensic and high-risk mental health patients are assessed and treated. In total, 125 mental health professionals across the country completed the survey. The five instruments that respondents reported most commonly using for risk assessment, risk management planning and risk monitoring were Broset, HCR-20, the START, the PCL-R, and the PCL:SV. Whereas the HCR-20 was rated highest in usefulness for risk assessment, the START was rated most useful for risk management and risk monitoring. No significant differences in utility were observed across professional groups. Unstructured clinical judgments were reported to be faster but more expensive to conduct than using a risk assessment instrument. Implications for clinical practice are discussed.

  5. Guidance on the environmental risk assessment of plant pests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsne Simon, E.

    2011-01-01

    the environmental risks of plant pests that have previously been used in pest risk assessment. The limitations identified by the review led the Panel to define the new methodology for environmental risk assessment which is described in this guidance document. The guidance is primarily addressed to the EFSA PLH...

  6. Sustainable exposure prevention through innovative detection and remediation technologies from the NIEHS Superfund Research Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Heather F; Suk, William A

    2017-03-01

    Innovative devices and tools for exposure assessment and remediation play an integral role in preventing exposure to hazardous substances. New solutions for detecting and remediating organic, inorganic, and mixtures of contaminants can improve public health as a means of primary prevention. Using a public health prevention model, detection and remediation technologies contribute to primary prevention as tools to identify areas of high risk (e.g. contamination hotspots), to recognize hazards (bioassay tests), and to prevent exposure through contaminant cleanups. Primary prevention success is ultimately governed by the widespread acceptance of the prevention tool. And, in like fashion, detection and remediation technologies must convey technical and sustainability advantages to be adopted for use. Hence, sustainability - economic, environmental, and societal - drives innovation in detection and remediation technology. The National Institute of Health (NIH) National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) Superfund Research Program (SRP) is mandated to advance innovative detection, remediation, and toxicity screening technology development through grants to universities and small businesses. SRP recognizes the importance of fast, accurate, robust, and advanced detection technologies that allow for portable real-time, on-site characterization, monitoring, and assessment of contaminant concentration and/or toxicity. Advances in non-targeted screening, biological-based assays, passive sampling devices (PSDs), sophisticated modeling approaches, and precision-based analytical tools are making it easier to quickly identify hazardous "hotspots" and, therefore, prevent exposures. Innovation in sustainable remediation uses a variety of approaches: in situ remediation; harnessing the natural catalytic properties of biological processes (such as bioremediation and phytotechnologies); and application of novel materials science (such as nanotechnology, advanced

  7. Risk assessment and toxicology databases for health effects assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, P.Y.; Wassom, J.S. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, TN (United States)

    1990-12-31

    Scientific and technological developments bring unprecedented stress to our environment. Society has to predict the results of potential health risks from technologically based actions that may have serious, far-reaching consequences. The potential for error in making such predictions or assessment is great and multiplies with the increasing size and complexity of the problem being studied. Because of this, the availability and use of reliable data is the key to any successful forecasting effort. Scientific research and development generate new data and information. Much of the scientific data being produced daily is stored in computers for subsequent analysis. This situation provides both an invaluable resource and an enormous challenge. With large amounts of government funds being devoted to health and environmental research programs and with maintenance of our living environment at stake, we must make maximum use of the resulting data to forecast and avert catastrophic effects. Along with the readily available. The most efficient means of obtaining the data necessary for assessing the health effects of chemicals is to utilize applications include the toxicology databases and information files developed at ORNL. To make most efficient use of the data/information that has already been prepared, attention and resources should be directed toward projects that meticulously evaluate the available data/information and create specialized peer-reviewed value-added databases. Such projects include the National Library of Medicine`s Hazardous Substances Data Bank, and the U.S. Air Force Installation Restoration Toxicology Guide. These and similar value-added toxicology databases were developed at ORNL and are being maintained and updated. These databases and supporting information files, as well as some data evaluation techniques are discussed in this paper with special focus on how they are used to assess potential health effects of environmental agents. 19 refs., 5 tabs.

  8. Risk assessment in winter backcountry travel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silverton, Natalie A; McIntosh, Scott E; Kim, Han S

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an important part of safe backcountry travel in avalanche terrain. The purpose of this study was to determine and compare the ability of backcountry travelers to accurately estimate the avalanche danger for their destination and time of travel. We surveyed 353 winter backcountry users, asking them to rate the avalanche danger for their destination that day. We then compared this estimation to the Utah Avalanche Center daily advisory for that specific location, aspect, and elevation. Tendency to underestimate the avalanche danger was then compared across 6 different sports (backcountry skiing, backcountry snowboarding, snowshoeing, snowmobiling, out-of-bounds skiing, and out-of-bounds snowboarding) as well as across age, gender, and subject participation in an avalanche safety course. A comparison across different sports, adjusted for age and gender, showed that snowshoers were 7.11 times more likely than skiers to underestimate the avalanche danger (95% CI, 2.95, 17.11). This difference was maintained after adjusting for past education in an avalanche safety course (odds ratio, 5.74; 95% CI, 2.28, 14.46). Snowmobilers were also significantly more likely to underestimate the avalanche danger when compared to skiers (odds ratio, 3.11; 95% CI, 1.12, 8.24), but these differences ceased to be significant when the data were adjusted for avalanche safety course (odds ratio, 2.39; 95% CI, 0.84, 6.74). While there was a trend for women and older age groups to underestimate the avalanche danger when compared to men, these trends were not significant. Snowshoers and snowmobilers are groups that tend to underestimate avalanche danger when traveling in the backcountry. These groups may be unknowingly assuming a higher risk and should be targeted for avalanche education and awareness.

  9. Report: Remedial Project Manager Turnover at Superfund Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Report #2001-M-000015, June 15, 2001. We determined that EPA Region III did not have formal procedures in place to mitigate continuity problems caused by turnover of EPA personnel in the Superfund program.

  10. Research into specific risk assessment in project financing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Bestvina Bukvić

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.

  11. The use of quantitative risk assessment in HACCP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoornstra, E.; Northolt, M.D.; Notermans, S.; Barendsz, A.W.

    2001-01-01

    During the hazard analysis as part of the development of a HACCP-system, first the hazards (contaminants) have to be identified and then the risks have to be assessed. Often, this assessment is restricted to a qualitative analysis. By using elements of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) the hazard a

  12. Risk assessment of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mena, Kristina D; Gerba, Charles P

    2009-01-01

    . 1986). Outbreaks have also been reported from exposure to P. aeruginosa in swimming pools and water slides. Although P. aeruginosa has a reputation for being resistant to disinfection, most studies show that it does not exhibit any marked resistance to the disinfectants used to treat drinking water such as chlorine, chloramines, ozone, or iodine. One author, however, did find it to be slightly more resistant to UV disinfection than most other bacteria (Wolfe 1990). Although much has been written about biofilms in the drinking water industry, very little has been reported regarding the role of P. aeruginosa in biofilms. Tap water appears to be a significant route of transmission in hospitals, from colonization of plumbing fixtures. It is still not clear if the colonization results from the water in the distribution system, or personnel use within the hospital. Infections and colonization can be significantly reduced by placement of filters on the water taps. The oral dose of P. aeruginosa required to establish colonization in a healthy subject is high (George et al. 1989a). During dose-response studies, even when subjects (mice or humans) were colonized via ingestion, there was no evidence of disease. P. aeruginosa administered by the aerosol route at levels of 10(7) cells did cause disease symptoms in mice, and was lethal in aerosolized doses of 10(9) cells. Aerosol dose-response studies have not been undertaken with human subjects. Human health risks associated with exposure to P. aeruginosa via drinking water ingestion were estimated using a four-step risk assessment approach. The risk of colonization from ingesting P. aeruginosa in drinking water is low. The risk is slightly higher if the subject is taking an antibiotic resisted by P. aeruginosa. The fact that individuals on ampicillin are more susceptible to Pseudomonas gastrointestinal infection probably results from suppression of normal intestinal flora, which would allow Pseudomonas to colonize. The process of

  13. Human Health Risk Assessment: A case study application of principles in dose response assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This case study application workshop will build on fundamental concepts and techniques in risk assessment presented and archived at previous TRAC meeting workshops. Practical examples from publicly available, peer reviewed risk assessments will be used as teaching aids. Course ...

  14. Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

    2009-04-01

    The RISNA project, financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre (Northern Spain), aims at assessing the seismic risk of the entire region. The final goal of the project is the definition of emergency plans for future earthquakes. With this purpose, four main topics are covered: seismic hazard characterization, geotechnical classification, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation to structures and exposed population. A geographic information system is used to integrate, analyze and represent all information colleted in the different phases of the study. Expected ground motions on rock conditions with a 90% probability of non-exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years are determined following a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology that includes a logic tree with different ground motion and source zoning models. As the region under study is located in the boundary between Spain and France, an effort is required to collect and homogenise seismological data from different national and regional agencies. A new homogenised seismic catalogue, merging data from Spanish, French, Catalonian and international agencies and establishing correlations between different magnitude scales, is developed. In addition, a new seismic zoning model focused on the study area is proposed. Results show that the highest ground motions on rock conditions are expected in the northeastern part of the region, decreasing southwards. Seismic hazard can be expressed as low-to-moderate. A geotechnical classification of the entire region is developed based on surface geology, available borehole data and morphotectonic constraints. Frequency-dependent amplification factors, consistent with code values, are proposed. The northern and southern parts of the region are characterized by stiff and soft soils respectively, being the softest soils located along river valleys. Seismic hazard maps including soil effects are obtained by applying these factors to the seismic hazard maps

  15. Customer Credit Risk Assessment using Artificial Neural Networks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nasser Mohammadi; Maryam Zangeneh

    2016-01-01

    Since the granting of banking facilities in recent years has faced problems such as customer credit risk and affects the profitability directly, customer credit risk assessment has become imperative...

  16. FIFRA Peer Review: Proposed Risk Assessment Methods Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    From September 11-14, 2012, EPA participated in a Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act Scientific Advisory Panel (SAP) meeting on a proposed pollinator risk assessment framework for determining the potential risks of pesticides to honey bees.

  17. Ozone Health Risk Assessment for Selected Urban Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    The health risk assessment described in this report estimated various health effects associated with O3 exposures as well as the reduced risks for one O3 season associated with just meeting the current O3 NAAQS.

  18. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environme...

  19. Frameworks and tools for risk assessment of manufactured nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hristozov, Danail; Gottardo, Stefania; Semenzin, Elena;

    2016-01-01

    Commercialization of nanotechnologies entails a regulatory requirement for understanding their environmental, health and safety (EHS) risks. Today we face challenges to assess these risks, which emerge from uncertainties around the interactions of manufactured nanomaterials (MNs) with humans...

  20. Breast Cancer Risk Assessment SAS Macro (Gail Model)

    Science.gov (United States)

    A SAS macro (commonly referred to as the Gail Model) that projects absolute risk of invasive breast cancer according to NCI’s Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) algorithm for specified race/ethnic groups and age intervals.

  1. Guidance on the environmental risk assessment of plant pests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsne Simon, E.

    2011-01-01

    the environmental risks of plant pests that have previously been used in pest risk assessment. The limitations identified by the review led the Panel to define the new methodology for environmental risk assessment which is described in this guidance document. The guidance is primarily addressed to the EFSA PLH...... Panel and has been conceived as an enhancement of the relevant parts of the “Guidance on a harmonised framework for pest risk assessment and the identification and evaluation of pest risk management options by EFSA”. Emphasizing the importance of assessing the consequences on both the structural...... (biodiversity) and the functional (ecosystem services) aspects of the environment, this new approach includes methods for assessing both aspects for the first time in a pest risk assessment scheme. A list of questions has been developed for the assessor to evaluate the consequences for structural biodiversity...

  2. Photogrammetry in Experiments for Hydrogeological Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barazzetti, L.; Scaioni, M.; Feng, T.; Qiao, G.; Lu, P.; Tong, X.; Li, R.

    2013-01-01

    The construction of scaled-down simulation platforms is largely used to support investigations for the assessment of hydrological risk. Achieved outcomes can be integrated and assimilated to numerical analyses for the study of unstable slope collapse, debris transport, and hydrological modeling in general. During design of such simulation platforms, a relevant role has to be given to the spatial sensor network (SSN) to deploy, which is in charge of collecting geo-referenced, quantitative information during experiments. Photogrammetry (including 3D imaging sensors) can play an important role in SSN owing to its capability of collecting 2D images and 3D point clouds data covering wide surfaces without any contact. Different kinds of metric measurements can be then extracted from datasets. The aim of this paper is to give an overview and some examples on the potential of photogrammetry in hydrogeological experiments. After a general introduction on a few preliminary issues (sensors, calibration, ground reference, usage of imaging or ranging sensors), potential applications are classified into 2D and 3D categories. Examples are focused on a scaled-down landslide simulation platform developed at Tongji University (Shanghai, P. R. China).

  3. A dynamic human health risk assessment system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Umesh; Singh, Gurmit; Pant, A B

    2012-05-01

    An online human health risk assessment system (OHHRAS) has been designed and developed in the form of a prototype database-driven system and made available for the population of India through a website - www.healthriskindia.in. OHHRAS provide the three utilities, that is, health survey, health status, and bio-calculators. The first utility health survey is functional on the basis of database being developed dynamically and gives the desired output to the user on the basis of input criteria entered into the system; the second utility health status is providing the output on the basis of dynamic questionnaire and ticked (selected) answers and generates the health status reports based on multiple matches set as per advise of medical experts and the third utility bio-calculators are very useful for the scientists/researchers as online statistical analysis tool that gives more accuracy and save the time of user. The whole system and database-driven website has been designed and developed by using the software (mainly are PHP, My-SQL, Deamweaver, C++ etc.) and made available publically through a database-driven website (www.healthriskindia.in), which are very useful for researchers, academia, students, and general masses of all sectors.

  4. Risk assessment of tuberculosis in immunocompromised patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sester, Martina; van Leth, Frank; Bruchfeld, Judith

    2014-01-01

    of TST and IGRAs in five different groups of immunocompromised patients, and evaluated their ability to identify those at risk for development of tuberculosis. METHODS: Immunocompromised patients with HIV infection, chronic renal failure, rheumatoid arthritis, solid-organ or stem-cell transplantation......, and healthy control subjects were evaluated head-to-head by the TST, QuantiFERON-TB-Gold in-tube test (ELISA), and T-SPOT.TB test (enzyme-linked immunospot) at 17 centers in 11 European countries. Development of tuberculosis was assessed during follow-up. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Frequencies of positive...... test results varied from 8.7 to 15.9% in HIV infection (n = 768), 25.3 to 30.6% in chronic renal failure (n = 270), 25.0% to 37.2% in rheumatoid arthritis (n = 199), 9.0 to 20.0% in solid-organ transplant recipients (n = 197), 0% to 5.8% in stem-cell transplant recipients (n = 103), and 11.2 to 15...

  5. PHOTOGRAMMETRY IN EXPERIMENTS FOR HYDROGEOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Barazzetti

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The construction of scaled-down simulation platforms is largely used to support investigations for the assessment of hydrological risk. Achieved outcomes can be integrated and assimilated to numerical analyses for the study of unstable slope collapse, debris transport, and hydrological modeling in general. During design of such simulation platforms, a relevant role has to be given to the spatial sensor network (SSN to deploy, which is in charge of collecting geo-referenced, quantitative information during experiments. Photogrammetry (including 3D imaging sensors can play an important role in SSN owing to its capability of collecting 2D images and 3D point clouds data covering wide surfaces without any contact. Different kinds of metric measurements can be then extracted from datasets. The aim of this paper is to give an overview and some examples on the potential of photogrammetry in hydrogeological experiments. After a general introduction on a few preliminary issues (sensors, calibration, ground reference, usage of imaging or ranging sensors, potential applications are classified into 2D and 3D categories. Examples are focused on a scaled-down landslide simulation platform developed at Tongji University (Shanghai, P. R. China.

  6. Assessing human health risk in the USDA forest service

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamel, D.R. [Department of Agriculture-Forest Service, Washington, DC (United States)

    1990-12-31

    This paper identifies the kinds of risk assessments being done by or for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service. Summaries of data sources currently in use and the pesticide risk assessments completed by the agency or its contractors are discussed. An overview is provided of the agency`s standard operating procedures for the conduct of toxicological, ecological, environmental fate, and human health risk assessments.

  7. Common breast cancer risk alleles and risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Näslund-Koch, C; Nordestgaard, B G; Bojesen, S E

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: We hypothesized that common breast cancer risk alleles are associated with incidences of breast cancer and other cancers in the general population, and identify low risk women among those invited for screening mammography. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: 35,441 individuals from the Danish...... general population were followed in Danish health registries for up to 21 years after blood sampling. After genotyping 72 breast cancer risk loci, each with 0-2 alleles, the sum for each individual was calculated. We used the simple allele sum instead of the conventional polygenic risk score......, as it is likely more sensitive in detecting associations with risks of other endpoints than breast cancer. RESULTS: Breast cancer incidence in the 19,010 women was increased across allele sum quintiles (log-rank trend test; p=1*10(-12)), but not incidence of other cancers (p=0.41). Age- and study-adjusted hazard...

  8. Exposure Data for Travel Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, N O; Koornstra, Matthijs; Broughton, Jeremy;

    1999-01-01

    This report illustrates why risk and exposure data are critical for policymaking at local, national and EU levels.Conclusions are drawn about the evaluation and use of risk information for different modes and estimates are presented for the fatality risk of various travel modes in the EU....

  9. Mining-related sediment and soil contamination in a large Superfund site: Characterization, habitat implications, and remediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juracek, Kyle E.; Drake, K. D.

    2016-01-01

    Historical mining activity (1850–1970) in the now inactive Tri-State Mining District provided an ongoing source of lead and zinc to the environment including the US Environmental Protection Agency Superfund site located in Cherokee County, southeast Kansas, USA. The resultant contamination adversely affected biota and caused human health problems and risks. Remediation in the Superfund site requires an understanding of the magnitude and extent of contamination. To provide some of the required information, a series of sediment and soil investigations were conducted in and near the Superfund site to characterize lead and zinc contamination in the aquatic and floodplain environments along the main-stem Spring River and its major tributaries. In the Superfund site, the most pronounced lead and zinc contamination, with concentrations that far exceed sediment quality guidelines associated with potential adverse biological effects, was measured for streambed sediments and floodplain soils located within or downstream from the most intensive mining-affected areas. Tributary streambeds and floodplains in affected areas are heavily contaminated with some sites having lead and zinc concentrations that are an order of magnitude (or more) greater than the sediment quality guidelines. For the main-stem Spring River, the streambed is contaminated but the floodplain is mostly uncontaminated. Measured lead and zinc concentrations in streambed sediments, lakebed sediments, and floodplain soils documented a persistence of the post-mining contamination on a decadal timescale. These results provide a basis for the prioritization, development, and implementation of plans to remediate contamination in the affected aquatic and floodplain environments within the Superfund site.

  10. Mining-Related Sediment and Soil Contamination in a Large Superfund Site: Characterization, Habitat Implications, and Remediation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juracek, K E; Drake, K D

    2016-10-01

    Historical mining activity (1850-1970) in the now inactive Tri-State Mining District provided an ongoing source of lead and zinc to the environment including the US Environmental Protection Agency Superfund site located in Cherokee County, southeast Kansas, USA. The resultant contamination adversely affected biota and caused human health problems and risks. Remediation in the Superfund site requires an understanding of the magnitude and extent of contamination. To provide some of the required information, a series of sediment and soil investigations were conducted in and near the Superfund site to characterize lead and zinc contamination in the aquatic and floodplain environments along the main-stem Spring River and its major tributaries. In the Superfund site, the most pronounced lead and zinc contamination, with concentrations that far exceed sediment quality guidelines associated with potential adverse biological effects, was measured for streambed sediments and floodplain soils located within or downstream from the most intensive mining-affected areas. Tributary streambeds and floodplains in affected areas are heavily contaminated with some sites having lead and zinc concentrations that are an order of magnitude (or more) greater than the sediment quality guidelines. For the main-stem Spring River, the streambed is contaminated but the floodplain is mostly uncontaminated. Measured lead and zinc concentrations in streambed sediments, lakebed sediments, and floodplain soils documented a persistence of the post-mining contamination on a decadal timescale. These results provide a basis for the prioritization, development, and implementation of plans to remediate contamination in the affected aquatic and floodplain environments within the Superfund site.

  11. Mining-Related Sediment and Soil Contamination in a Large Superfund Site: Characterization, Habitat Implications, and Remediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juracek, K. E.; Drake, K. D.

    2016-10-01

    Historical mining activity (1850-1970) in the now inactive Tri-State Mining District provided an ongoing source of lead and zinc to the environment including the US Environmental Protection Agency Superfund site located in Cherokee County, southeast Kansas, USA. The resultant contamination adversely affected biota and caused human health problems and risks. Remediation in the Superfund site requires an understanding of the magnitude and extent of contamination. To provide some of the required information, a series of sediment and soil investigations were conducted in and near the Superfund site to characterize lead and zinc contamination in the aquatic and floodplain environments along the main-stem Spring River and its major tributaries. In the Superfund site, the most pronounced lead and zinc contamination, with concentrations that far exceed sediment quality guidelines associated with potential adverse biological effects, was measured for streambed sediments and floodplain soils located within or downstream from the most intensive mining-affected areas. Tributary streambeds and floodplains in affected areas are heavily contaminated with some sites having lead and zinc concentrations that are an order of magnitude (or more) greater than the sediment quality guidelines. For the main-stem Spring River, the streambed is contaminated but the floodplain is mostly uncontaminated. Measured lead and zinc concentrations in streambed sediments, lakebed sediments, and floodplain soils documented a persistence of the post-mining contamination on a decadal timescale. These results provide a basis for the prioritization, development, and implementation of plans to remediate contamination in the affected aquatic and floodplain environments within the Superfund site.

  12. A Study of Chinese Commercial Banks’ Credit Risk Assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Xiaosong Zheng

    2016-01-01

    .... In practice, the existing credit risk assessment and management policies cannot adapt to the requirements of SMEs, which means that developing new mechanisms and management policies is necessary...

  13. A comparison of risk assessment techniques from qualitative to quantitative

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Altenbach, T.J.

    1995-02-13

    Risk assessment techniques vary from purely qualitative approaches, through a regime of semi-qualitative to the more traditional quantitative. Constraints such as time, money, manpower, skills, management perceptions, risk result communication to the public, and political pressures all affect the manner in which risk assessments are carried out. This paper surveys some risk matrix techniques, examining the uses and applicability for each. Limitations and problems for each technique are presented and compared to the others. Risk matrix approaches vary from purely qualitative axis descriptions of accident frequency vs consequences, to fully quantitative axis definitions using multi-attribute utility theory to equate different types of risk from the same operation.

  14. Assessing Bleeding Risk in Patients Taking Anticoagulants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoeb, Marwa; Fang, Margaret C.

    2013-01-01

    Anticoagulant medications are commonly used for the prevention and treatment of thromboembolism. Although highly effective, they are also associated with significant bleeding risks. Numerous individual clinical factors have been linked to an increased risk of hemorrhage, including older age, anemia, and renal disease. To help quantify hemorrhage risk for individual patients, a number of clinical risk prediction tools have been developed. These risk prediction tools differ in how they were derived and how they identify and weight individual risk factors. At present, their ability to effective predict anticoagulant-associated hemorrhage remains modest. Use of risk prediction tools to estimate bleeding in clinical practice is most influential when applied to patients at the lower spectrum of thromboembolic risk, when the risk of hemorrhage will more strongly affect clinical decisions about anticoagulation. Using risk tools may also help counsel and inform patients about their potential risk for hemorrhage while on anticoagulants, and can identify patients who might benefit from more careful management of anticoagulation. PMID:23479259

  15. THE ASSESSMENT PROCEDURE OF THE OPERATIONAL RISK EVENTS

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    A credit institution must establish a management framework of the operational risk.This framework must cover the appetite and tolerance to the operational risk of a credit institution,in accordance with the management policies of this risk, including the measure and method inwhich the operational risk is transferred outside the credit institution.The management framework of the operational risk should include policies and processes for theidentification, assessment, monitoring and control/dim...

  16. Seismic vulnerability assessments in risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolova, Nina; Larionov, Valery; Bonnin, Jean; Ugarov, Alexander

    2013-04-01

    The assessment of seismic vulnerability is a critical issue within natural and technological risk analysis. In general, there are three common types of methods used for development of vulnerability functions of different elements at risk: empirical, analytical and expert estimations. The paper addresses the empirical methods for seismic vulnerability estimation for residential buildings and industrial facilities. The results of engineering analysis of past earthquake consequences, as well as the statistical data on buildings behavior during strong earthquakes presented in the different seismic intensity scales, are used to verify the regional parameters of mathematical models in order to simulate physical and economic vulnerability for different building types classified according to seismic scale MMSK-86. Verified procedure has been used to estimate the physical and economic vulnerability of buildings and constructions against earthquakes for the Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area, which are characterized by rather high level of seismic activity and high population density. In order to estimate expected damage states to buildings and constructions in the case of the earthquakes according to the OSR-97B (return period T=1,000 years) within big cities and towns, they were divided into unit sites and their coordinates were presented as dots located in the centers of unit sites. Then the indexes obtained for each unit site were summed up. The maps of physical vulnerability zoning for Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area includes two elements: percent of different damage states for settlements with number of inhabitants less than 1,000 and vulnerability for cities and towns with number of inhabitants more than 1,000. The hypsometric scale is used to represent both elements on the maps. Taking into account the size of oil pipe line systems located in the highly active seismic zones in

  17. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  18. Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolt Jeffrey D

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization.

  19. Dangerousness and risk assessment: the state of the art.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Arie; Rosca, Paula; Khawalled, Razak; Gruzniewski, Adrian; Grinshpoon, Alex

    2003-01-01

    Risk or dangerousness is an issue which burdens the minds of all mental health and law enforcement professionals. Researchers have attempted to define its extent and constituent elements and to predict and assess it. Risk assessment is a complex task, influenced by the interaction of many variables, such as previous pattern of violence, biological, sociological and psychological factors, divided into facilitating and inhibiting factors. In our paper we discuss the theoretical concepts linked with dangerousness prediction and assessment, and then review the "first" and "second" generations of literature on dangerousness and risk assessment, including the actuarial instruments. We then present the current trends in the field, concentrating on the correlation between dangerousness and mental disorders, dangerousness analysis and risk management, a wider concept including prevention, treatment and communication of risk. Although great progress has been made in this field, there are still many unresolved issues, among them the development of valid instruments for the assessment of risk.

  20. Population-scale assessment endpoints in ecological risk assessment part II: selection of assessment endpoint attributes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G; Kaminski, Laurel A

    2007-07-01

    Because ecological services often are tied to specific species, the risk to populations is a critical endpoint and important feature of ecological risk assessments. In Part 1 of this series it was demonstrated that population scale assessment endpoints are important expressions of the valued components of ecological structures. This commentary reviews several of the characteristics of populations that can be evaluated and used in population scale risk assessments. Two attributes are evaluated as promising. The 1st attribute is the change in potential productivity of the population over a specified time period. The 2nd attribute is the change in the age structure of a population, expressed graphically or as a normalized effects vector (NEV). The NEV is a description of the change in age structure due to a toxicant or other stressor and appears to be characteristic of specific stressor effects.

  1. Extracting additional risk managers information from a risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in deli meats

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Rodríguez, F.; Asselt, van E.D.; García-Gimeno, R.M.; Zurera, G.; Zwietering, M.H.

    2007-01-01

    The risk assessment study of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat foods conducted by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is an example of an extensive quantitative microbiological risk assessment that could be used by risk analysts and other scientists to obtain information and by managers and s

  2. 77 FR 58590 - Determining Technical Adequacy of Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Risk-Informed License...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-21

    ... COMMISSION Determining Technical Adequacy of Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Risk-Informed License... NUREG-0800, ``Standard Review Plan for the Review of Safety Analysis Reports for Nuclear Power Plants: LWR Edition,'' Section 19.1, ``Determining the Technical Adequacy of Probabilistic Risk Assessment...

  3. Risk Assessment and Risk Management in Offenders with Intellectual Disabilities: Are We There Yet?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouls, Claudia; Jeandarme, Inge

    2015-01-01

    Research on risk assessment and risk management in offenders with intellectual disabilities (OIDs), although far behind compared to the mainstream offender literature, is now expanding. The current review provides an overview of the predictive value of risk assessment and treatment outcome monitoring tools developed for both mainstream forensic…

  4. Defining food sampling strategy for chemical risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Wesolek, Nathalie; Roudot, Alain-Claude

    2012-01-01

    International audience; Collection of accurate and reliable data is a prerequisite for informed risk assessment and risk management. For chemical contaminants in food, contamination assessments enable consumer protection and exposure assessments. And yet, the accuracy of a contamination assessment depends on both chemical analysis and sampling plan performance. A sampling plan is always used when the contamination level of a food lot is evaluated, due to the fact that the whole lot can not be...

  5. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  6. Embedding climate change risk assessment within a governance context

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Preston, Benjamin L [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    Climate change adaptation is increasingly being framed in the context of climate risk management. This has contributed to the proliferation of climate change vulnerability and/or risk assessments as means of supporting institutional decision-making regarding adaptation policies and measures. To date, however, little consideration has been given to how such assessment projects and programs interact with governance systems to facilitate or hinder the implementation of adaptive responses. An examination of recent case studies involving Australian local governments reveals two key linkages between risk assessment and the governance of adaptation. First, governance systems influence how risk assessment processes are conducted, by whom they are conducted, and whom they are meant to inform. Australia s governance system emphasizes evidence-based decision-making that reinforces a knowledge deficit model of decision support. Assessments are often carried out by external experts on behalf of local government, with limited participation by relevant stakeholders and/or civil society. Second, governance systems influence the extent to which the outputs from risk assessment activities are translated into adaptive responses and outcomes. Technical information regarding risk is often stranded by institutional barriers to adaptation including poor uptake of information, competition on the policy agenda, and lack of sufficient entitlements. Yet, risk assessments can assist in bringing such barriers to the surface, where they can be debated and resolved. In fact, well-designed risk assessments can contribute to multi-loop learning by institutions, and that reflexive problem orientation may be one of the more valuable benefits of assessment.

  7. Cavity degradation risk insurance assessment. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hampson, C.; Neill, P.; de Bivort, L.

    1980-01-01

    This study examined the risks and risk management issues involved with the implementation by electric power utilities of compressed air energy storage and underground pumped hydro storage systems. The results are listed in terms of relative risks for the construction and operation of these systems in different geologic deposits, with varying amounts of pressurization, with natural or man-made disasters in the vicinity of the storage equipment, and with different modes of operating the facilities. (LCL)

  8. Assessing risk: the role of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in patient safety improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wreathall, J; Nemeth, C

    2004-06-01

    Morbidity and mortality due to "medical errors" compel better understanding of health care as a system. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been used to assess the designs of high hazard, low risk systems such as commercial nuclear power plants and chemical manufacturing plants and is now being studied for its potential in the improvement of patient safety. PRA examines events that contribute to adverse outcomes through the use of event tree analysis and determines the likelihood of event occurrence through fault tree analysis. It complements tools already in use in patient safety such as failure modes and effects analyses (FMEAs) and root cause analyses (RCAs). PRA improves on RCA by taking account of the more complex causal interrelationships that are typical in health care. It also enables the analyst to examine potential solution effectiveness by direct graphical representations. However, PRA simplifies real world complexity by forcing binary conditions on events, and it lacks adequate probability data (although recent developments help to overcome these limitations). Its reliance on expert assessment calls for deep domain knowledge which has to come from research performed at the "sharp end" of acute care.

  9. Assessment of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in South Asian Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Monira Hussain

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Although South Asian populations have high cardiovascular disease (CVD burden in the world, their patterns of individual CVD risk factors have not been fully studied. None of the available algorithms/scores to assess CVD risk have originated from these populations. To explore the relevance of CVD risk scores for these populations, literature search and qualitative synthesis of available evidence were performed. South Asians usually have higher levels of both “classical” and nontraditional CVD risk factors and experience these at a younger age. There are marked variations in risk profiles between South Asian populations. More than 100 risk algorithms are currently available, with varying risk factors. However, no available algorithm has included all important risk factors that underlie CVD in these populations. The future challenge is either to appropriately calibrate current risk algorithms or ideally to develop new risk algorithms that include variables that provide an accurate estimate of CVD risk.

  10. Making sense of risks: A hybrid argumentative-narrative approach to risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hovestad, Bas; Bex, Floris

    2016-01-01

    Risk management is relevant in a large array of industries and other fields concerned with acting upon risks in a timely manner. Several dynamic sub-processes lay at the foundation of risk management. A sub-process that plays a central role is risk assessment, which revolves around the

  11. Making sense of risks: A hybrid argumentative-narrative approach to risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hovestad, Bas; Bex, Floris

    2016-01-01

    Risk management is relevant in a large array of industries and other fields concerned with acting upon risks in a timely manner. Several dynamic sub-processes lay at the foundation of risk management. A sub-process that plays a central role is risk assessment, which revolves around the identificatio

  12. Fracture risk assessed by Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) compared with fracture risk derived from population fracture rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Abrahamsen, Bo; Hermann, Anne Pernille

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the performance of the Swedish version of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)) without bone mass density (BMD) in a Danish population to examine the possibility of applying this version to Danish women. METHODS: From the Danish National Register of social security numbers, we...... randomly selected 5000 women living in the region of Southern Denmark aged 40-90 years to receive a mailed questionnaire concerning risk factors for osteoporosis based on FRAX. The predicted 10-year probability of hip fractures was calculated for each woman returning a complete questionnaire using...... the Swedish version of FRAX. The observed 10-year hip fracture risk was also calculated for each woman using age-specific hip fracture rates from the National Hospital Discharge Register and National survival tables. RESULTS: A total of 4194 (84%) women responded to the questionnaire and 3636 (73%) gave...

  13. 77 FR 13603 - Anniston PCB Superfund Site; Anniston, Calhoun County, AL; Correction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-07

    ... AGENCY Anniston PCB Superfund Site; Anniston, Calhoun County, AL; Correction AGENCY: Environmental... concerning the Anniston PCB Superfund Site located in Anniston. The settlement is not an amendment, but a new... name Anniston PCB by one of the following methods:...

  14. Cleanups In My Community (CIMC) - Superfund National Priority List (NPL) Sites, National Layer

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This data layer provides access to Superfund National Priority List Sites as part of the CIMC web service. Superfund is a program administered by the EPA to locate,...

  15. 78 FR 729 - Ellman Battery Superfund Site; Orlando, Orange County, FL; Notice of Settlement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-04

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY Ellman Battery Superfund Site; Orlando, Orange County, FL; Notice of Settlement AGENCY... concerning a previous Removal Action at the Ellman Battery Superfund Site located in Orlando, Orange...

  16. Assessment of the risk of transporting liquid chlorine by rail

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrews, W.B.

    1980-03-01

    This report presents the risk of shipping liquid chlorine by rail. While chlorine is not an energy material, there are several benefits to studying chlorine transportation risks. First, chlorine, like energy materials, is widely used as a feedstock to industry. Second, it is the major purification agent in municipal water treatment systems and therefore, provides direct benefits to the public. Finally, other risk assessments have been completed for liquid chlorine shipments in the US and Europe, which provide a basis for comparison with this study. None of the previous PNL energy material risk assessments have had other studies for comparison. For these reasons, it was felt that a risk assessment of chlorine transportation by rail could provide information on chlorine risk levels, identify ways to reduce these risks and use previous studies on chlorine risks to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the PNL risk assessment methodology. The risk assessment methodology used in this study is summarized. The methodology is presented in the form of a risk assessment model which is constructed for ease of periodic updating of the data base so that the risk may be reevaluated as additional data become available. The report is sectioned to correspond to specific analysis steps identified in the model. The transport system and accident environment are described. The response of the transport system to accident environments is described. Release sequences are postulated and evaluated to determine both the likelihood and possible consequences of a release. Supportive data and analyses are given in the appendices. The risk assessment results are related to the year 1985 to allow a direct comparison with other reports in this series.

  17. Evaluating the Risk of Child Abuse: The Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Ko Ling

    2012-01-01

    The present study developed the Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS), an actuarial instrument for the assessment of the risk of physical child abuse. Data of 2,363 Chinese parents (47.7% male) living in Hong Kong were used in the analyses. Participants were individually interviewed with a questionnaire assessing their perpetration of child…

  18. Evaluating the Risk of Child Abuse: The Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Ko Ling

    2012-01-01

    The present study developed the Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS), an actuarial instrument for the assessment of the risk of physical child abuse. Data of 2,363 Chinese parents (47.7% male) living in Hong Kong were used in the analyses. Participants were individually interviewed with a questionnaire assessing their perpetration of child…

  19. Radon programme in the Netherlands: risk assessment and risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, D.W.G. [Ministry of Housing, Physical Planning and Environment, The Hague (Netherlands). Directorate for Chemicals, External Safety and Radiation Protection

    1994-12-31

    The Dutch policy on the control of the risk of radon is predominantly based on the results of the Radon Research Programme. Important topics of the Radon Research Programme are described. Furthermore, the Dutch policy on indoor radiation is reviewed in view of the national environmental policy and radiation risk management. The policy on the control of radon in domestic and other buildings is related to other policies, both national and international, e.g. economic, environmental and housing policy. A short review of these relations in the Netherlands is given. In brief a description will be given of the attention paid by the government to the communication strategies used in order to enforce, for instance, remedial actions and the implementation of risk reduction technology. (author).

  20. Assessment of cardiovascular risk in diabetes: Risk scoresand provocative testing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2015-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause ofmorbidity and mortality among patients with diabetesmellitus, who have a risk of cardiovascular mortalitytwo to four times that of people without diabetes. Anindividualised approach to cardiovascular risk estimationand management is needed. Over the past decades,many risk scores have been developed to predict CVD.However, few have been externally validated in adiabetic population and limited studies have examinedthe impact of applying a prediction model in clinicalpractice. Currently, guidelines are focused on testingfor CVD in symptomatic patients. Atypical symptomsor silent ischemia are more common in the diabeticpopulation, and with additional markers of vasculardisease such as erectile dysfunction and autonomicneuropathy, these guidelines can be difficult to interpret.We propose an algorithm incorporating cardiovascularrisk scores in combination with typical and atypical signsand symptoms to alert clinicians to consider furtherinvestigation with provocative testing. The modalities forinvestigation of CVD are discussed.

  1. Assessing the Construct Validity of Risk Attitude

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Smidts, A.

    2000-01-01

    Two major approaches to measuring risk attitude are compared. One, based on the expected utility model is derived from responses to lotteries and direct scaling. The other measure is a psychometric approach based on Likert statements that produces a unidimensional risk attitude scale. The data are

  2. Microbial risk assessment for urban pluvial flooding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterk, G.; Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.; Clemens, F.H.L.R.; Berends, B.R.

    2008-01-01

    Public health risks of urban pluvial flooding have so far received little attention in technical discussions. In this paper, the results of pathogen measurements in the sewer system of Utrecht and an urban flooding experiment are presented and used in an application of Quantitative Microbial Risk

  3. Credit risk assessment: Evidence from banking industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Ghodrati

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Measuring different risk factors such as credit risk in banking industry has been an interesting area of studies. The artificial neural network is a nonparametric method developed to succeed for measuring credit risk and this method is applied to measure the credit risk. This research’s neural network follows back propagation paradigm, which enables it to use historical data for predicting future values with very good out of sample fitting. Macroeconomic variables including GDP, exchange rate, inflation rate, stock price index, and M2 are used to forecast credit risk for two Iranian banks; namely Saderat and Sarmayeh over the period 2007-2011. Research data are being tested for ADF and Causality Granger tests before entering the ANN to achieve the best lag structure for the research model. MSE and R values for the developed ANN in this research respectively are 86×〖10〗^(-4 and 0.9885, respectively. The results showed that ANN was able to predict banks’ credit risk with low error. Sensibility analyses which has accomplished on this research’s ANN corroborates that M2 has the highest effect on the ANN’s credit risk and should be considered as an additional leading indicator by Iran’s banking authorities. These matters confirm validation of macroeconomic notions in Iran’s credit systematic risk.

  4. Use of risk quotient and probabilistic approaches to assess risks of pesticides to birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    When conducting ecological risk assessments for pesticides, the United States Environmental Protection Agency typically relies upon the risk quotient (RQ). This approach is intended to be conservative in nature, making assumptions related to exposure and effects that are intended...

  5. 2011 FEMA Risk Mapping, Assessment, and Planning (Risk MAP) Lidar: Nashua River Watershed (Massachusetts, New Hampshire)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data are the lidar points collected for FEMA Risk Mapping, Assessment, and Planning (Risk MAP) for the Nashua River Watershed. This area falls in portions of...

  6. Regulating by the Numbers: Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Nuclear Power.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, Elizabeth; Wildavsky, Aaron

    1988-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment has been promoted within the Nuclear Regulatory Commission as a means of judging risk to the public and of determining regulatory measures. Interviews with engineers and other technically trained personnel reveal the difficulties created by expectations that this form of assessment should be applied. (TJH)

  7. Study of occupation health risk assessment on Chinese coal mine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIAO Guo-qing; YAN Xiang-nong

    2007-01-01

    Factors of occupation health hazard were identified and analyzed, and indexes system of occupation health risk assessment were established by applying fuzzy theory and system safety technique, the weights of index system were obtained by AHP, finally a reasonable mathematics model of occupation health risk assessment was accomplished by an example.

  8. Recognizing Success: Assessing Arts Residencies for "At Risk" Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidoff, Paula

    2007-01-01

    Assessing the success of a residency with an at-risk population requires an expanded set of standards. While ultimate goals may be the same, one needs a longer time to achieve them. In this article, the author, a teaching artist with long experience working in at-risk settings, argues for a deeper and broader understanding of assessment and…

  9. Predictive validity of the Hand Arm Risk assessment Method (HARM)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Douwes, M.; Boocock, M.; Coenen, P.; Heuvel, S. van den; Bosch, T.

    2014-01-01

    The Hand Arm Risk assessment Method (HARM) is a simplified risk assessment method for determining musculoskeletal symptoms to the arm, neck and/or shoulder posed by hand-arm tasks of the upper body. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the predictive validity of HARM using data collected from a

  10. Environmental Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strandberg, B.; Kjær, C.; Hindar, K.

    It was the aim of this NordTest project to propose improvements that prepare us to assess ecological risks to the environment associated with releases of existing and coming GMO cases. The report is separated into three sections. The first describes the frames of ecological risk assessment...

  11. MINI REVIEW - EPIGENETIC PROCESSES AND CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abstract: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment encourages the use of mechanistic data in the assessment of human cancer risk at low (environmental) exposure levels. The key events that define a particular mode of action for tumor fo...

  12. Environmental Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strandberg, B.; Kjær, C.; Hindar, K.

    It was the aim of this NordTest project to propose improvements that prepare us to assess ecological risks to the environment associated with releases of existing and coming GMO cases. The report is separated into three sections. The first describes the frames of ecological risk assessment...

  13. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  14. ArgueSecure: Out-of-the-box Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ionita, Dan; Kegel, Roeland; Wieringa, Roel; Baltuta, Andrei

    2016-01-01

    Most established security risk assessment methodologies aim to produce ranked lists of risks. But ranking requires quantification of risks, which in turn relies on data which may not be available or estimations which might not be accurate. As an alternative, we have previously proposed argumentation

  15. Microbiological risk assessment of foods in international trade

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schothorst, van M.

    2002-01-01

    The international workshop on "Promotion of Technical Harmonisation on Risk-Based Decision Making" reviewed the use of risk-based decision making across a range of industry sectors and countries. This paper presents the contribution to the workshop covering microbiological risk assessment of foods i

  16. Advancing the Contribution of Occupational Epidemiology to Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vlaanderen, J.J.

    2011-01-01

    The identification and quantification of risk factors that are characterized by low exposure levels, moderately increased risks, and unspecific exposure-disease relations is a major challenge facing risk assessment today. Occupational epidemiological studies can play a role in addressing this challe

  17. Scientific Opinion on Risk Assessment of Synthetic Biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, Michelle M; Vermeire, Theo

    2016-08-01

    In 2013, three Scientific Committees of the European Commission (EC) drafted Scientific Opinions on synthetic biology that provide an operational definition and address risk assessment methodology, safety aspects, environmental risks, knowledge gaps, and research priorities. These Opinions contribute to the international discussions on the risk governance for synthetic biology developments.

  18. Risk assessment: the importance of genetic polymorphisms in man

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Lisbeth E.; Loft, S H; Autrup, H

    2001-01-01

    and increased cancer risk, such results indicate effect modification regarding cancer risk. In risk assessment the safety 'factor' of 10 is generally accepted to allow for variation in individual susceptibility. Reviewing the literature justifies the factor of 10 when considering single polymorphisms. However...... the application in insurance situations is criticised....

  19. Risk assessment: the importance of genetic polymorphisms in man

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    E. Knudsen, Lisbeth; Loft, Steffen; Autrup, Herman

    2001-01-01

    and increased cancer risk, such results indicate effect modification regarding cancer risk. In risk assessment the safety ‘factor’ of 10 is generally accepted to allow for variation in individual susceptibility. Reviewing the literature justifies the factor of 10 when considering single polymorphisms. However...... the application in insurance situations is criticised....

  20. Development and evolution of risk assessment for food allergens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crevel, Rene' W. R.; Baumert, Joseph L.; Baka, Athanasia

    2014-01-01

    The need to assess the risk from food allergens derives directly from the need to manage effectively this food safety hazard. Work spanning the last two decades dispelled the initial thinking that food allergens were so unique that the risk they posed was not amenable to established risk assessme...

  1. Harmonia axyridis: an environmental risk assessment for Northwest Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenteren, van J.C.; Loomans, A.J.M.; Babendreier, D.; Bigler, F.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we summarize the international situation with respect to environmental risk assessment for biological control agents. Next, we apply a recently designed, comprehensive risk evaluation method consisting of a stepwise procedure to evaluate the environmental risks of Harmonia axyridis in

  2. Assessing natural hazards in forestry for risk management: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marc Hanewinkel; Susan Hummel; Axel. Albrecht

    2011-01-01

    We address the problem of how to integrate risk assessment into forest management and therefore provide a comprehensive review of recent and past literature on risk analysis and modeling and, moreover, an evaluation and summary on these papers. We provide a general scheme on how to integrate concepts of risk into forest management decisions. After an overview of the...

  3. Status and future of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Q L; Barker, G C; Gorris, L G M; Tian, M S; Song, X Y; Malakar, P K

    2015-03-01

    Since the implementation of the Food Safety Law of the People's Republic of China in 2009 use of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) has increased. QMRA is used to assess the risk posed to consumers by pathogenic bacteria which cause the majority of foodborne outbreaks in China. This review analyses the progress of QMRA research in China from 2000 to 2013 and discusses 3 possible improvements for the future. These improvements include planning and scoping to initiate QMRA, effectiveness of microbial risk assessment utility for risk management decision making, and application of QMRA to establish appropriate Food Safety Objectives.

  4. Asbestos exposure--quantitative assessment of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hughes, J.M.; Weill, H.

    1986-01-01

    Methods for deriving quantitative estimates of asbestos-associated health risks are reviewed and their numerous assumptions and uncertainties described. These methods involve extrapolation of risks observed at past relatively high asbestos concentration levels down to usually much lower concentration levels of interest today--in some cases, orders of magnitude lower. These models are used to calculate estimates of the potential risk to workers manufacturing asbestos products and to students enrolled in schools containing asbestos products. The potential risk to workers exposed for 40 yr to 0.5 fibers per milliliter (f/ml) of mixed asbestos fiber type (a permissible workplace exposure limit under consideration by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) ) are estimated as 82 lifetime excess cancers per 10,000 exposed. The risk to students exposed to an average asbestos concentration of 0.001 f/ml of mixed asbestos fiber types for an average enrollment period of 6 school years is estimated as 5 lifetime excess cancers per one million exposed. If the school exposure is to chrysotile asbestos only, then the estimated risk is 1.5 lifetime excess cancers per million. Risks from other causes are presented for comparison; e.g., annual rates (per million) of 10 deaths from high school football, 14 from bicycling (10-14 yr of age), 5 to 20 for whooping cough vaccination. Decisions concerning asbestos products require participation of all parties involved and should only be made after a scientifically defensible estimate of the associated risk has been obtained. In many cases to date, such decisions have been made without adequate consideration of the level of risk or the cost-effectiveness of attempts to lower the potential risk. 73 references.

  5. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology. Revision 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site.

  6. Environmental and industrial risk and crisis assessment: a cognitive approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacques, J.M.; Gatot, L. [Research Center for Crisis and Conflict Management (ReCCCoM), University of Namur (FUNDP), Faculty of Economic, Social and Management Sciences, Namur (Belgium)

    1998-07-01

    The author have tried to show that rational risk analysis exhibits some severe shortcomings in areas where the danger is new and the scientific knowledge is limited and controversial. In such contexts, the traditional dichotomy between objective and subjective risk is not of much help. Thus, traditional risk communication based on information, education, trust in institutions, is not adapted here. The first elements of analysis proposed in this tentative paper suggest that in such contexts, risk communication should be based on participatory methods such as forums for debate. The stake is therefore the democratization of assessment procedure and the development of different means which allow to couple risk and technology assessment. (authors)

  7. Companies Credit Risk Assessment Methods for Investment Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dovilė Peškauskaitė

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available As the banks have tightened lending requirements, companies look for alternative sources of external funding. One of such is bonds issue. Unfortunately, corporate bonds issue as a source of funding is rare in Lithuania. This occurs because companies face with a lack of information, investors fear to take on credit risk. Credit risk is defined as a borrower’s failure to meet its obligation. Investors, in order to avoid credit risk, have to assess the state of the companies. The goal of the article is to determine the most informative methods of credit risk assessment. The article summarizes corporate lending sources, analyzes corporate default causes and credit risk assessment methods. The study based on the SWOT analysis shows that investors before making an investment decision should evaluate both the business risk,using qualitative method CAMPARI, and the financial risk, using financial ratio analysis.

  8. Aviation Security, Risk Assessment, and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Mark G.; Mueller, John

    2013-01-01

    This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well…

  9. Seismic risk assessment for road in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toyfur, Mona Foralisa; Pribadi, Krishna S.

    2016-05-01

    Road networks in Indonesia consist of 446,000 km of national, provincial and local roads as well as toll highways. Indonesia is one of countries that exposed to various natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, etc. Within the Indonesian archipelago, several global tectonic plates interact, such as the Indo-Australian, Pacific, Eurasian, resulting in a complex geological setting, characterized by the existence of seismically active faults and subduction zones and a chain of more than one hundred active volcanoes. Roads in Indonesia are vital infrastructure needed for people and goods movement, thus supporting community life and economic activities, including promoting regional economic development. Road damages and losses due to earthquakes have not been studied widely, whereas road disruption caused enormous economic damage. The aim of this research is to develop a method to analyse risk caused by seismic hazard to roads. The seismic risk level of road segment is defined using an earthquake risk index, adopting the method of Earthquake Disaster Risk Index model developed by Davidson (1997). Using this method, road segments' risk level can be defined and compared, and road risk map can be developed as a tool for prioritizing risk mitigation programs for road networks in Indonesia.

  10. Impact of dependencies in risk assessments of power distribution systems

    OpenAIRE

    Alvehag, Karin

    2008-01-01

     Society has become increasingly dependent on electricity, so power system reliability is of crucial importance. However, while underinvestment leads to an unacceptable number of power outages, overinvestment will result in costs that are too high for society. The challenge is to find a socioeconomically adequate level of risk. In this risk assessment, not only the probability of power outages, but also the severity of their consequences should be included.   A risk assessment can be performe...

  11. Dangerous chemical substances – Tools supporting occupational risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Elżbieta Dobrzyńska; Małgorzata Pośniak

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of risk associated with exposure to chemicals in the work environment is a task that still poses a lot of difficulties for the employers. At the same time the probability of adverse health effects faced by an employee as a result of such risks, and the related employer’s material losses should motivate employers to seek effective solutions aimed at assessing the risks and controling them to an acceptable level by the application of appropriate preventive measures. The paper pre...

  12. Technologies for Assessing Behavioral and Cognitive Markers of Suicide Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-10-01

    AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-15-1-0632 TITLE: Technologies for Assessing Behavioral and Cognitive Markers of Suicide Risk PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Brian...CONTRACT NUMBER Technologies for Assessing Behavioral and Cognitive Markers of Suicide Risk 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-15-1-0632 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT...suicide risk and to evaluate the predictive utility of these markers over a one year period. We propose to achieve these aims by: (a) collecting

  13. NEPA, EPA and risk assessment: Has EPA lost its way?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2012-11-01

    The EPA risk assessment practice denies the inclusion of beneficial responses in the evaluation process. This practice represents a marked deviation from the original guidelines set forth within NEPA, which required the integrated goal of environmental protection as including both a reduction in risk as well as an enhancement of health benefit. It is time for regulatory agencies such as EPA to incorporate both harm and benefit within its risk assessment process.

  14. The Baptist Health High-Risk Falls Assessment: One Assessment Fits All.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bugajski, Andrew; Lengerich, Alex; McCowan, Denise; Merritt, Sharon; Moe, Krista; Hall, Brittany; Nelson, Debbie; Brockopp, Dorothy

    Assessing high risk for falling among psychiatric inpatients is particularly challenging in that assessments with strong sensitivity and specificity are not available. The purpose of this study was to determine the sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratio of the Baptist Health High Risk Falls Assessment (BHHRFA), a medical-surgical fall risk assessment, in a psychiatric inpatient population. Data collected on 5910 psychiatric inpatients using the BHHRFA showed acceptable sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratio (0.68/0.70/4.964).

  15. NGNP Risk Management through Assessing Technology Readiness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John W. Collins

    2010-08-01

    Throughout the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) project life cycle, technical risks are identified, analyzed, and mitigated and decisions are made regarding the design and selection of plant and sub-system configurations, components and their fabrication materials, and operating conditions. Risk resolution and decision making are key elements that help achieve project completion within budget and schedule constraints and desired plant availability. To achieve this objective, a formal decision-making and risk management process was developed for NGNP, based on proven systems engineering principles that have guided aerospace and military applications.

  16. Risk assessment of biological hazards in the European Union.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hugas, Marta; Tsigarida, Eirini; Robinson, Tobin; Calistri, Paolo

    2007-11-30

    International, community and national food safety law and any subsequent decision-making practices aim to be based on risk analysis--a process consisting of risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. With the appointment of the European Food Safety Authority as an independent scientific point of reference in risk assessment, there is a clear functional separation between risk assessment and risk management in the European Union food safety context. When a food safety question on microbiological hazards is to be answered--which is under the remit of the EFSA's Scientific Panel on Biological Hazards (BIOHAZ)--extensive dialogue and interactions covering the clarity of the question, the acceptability of the deadline and the availability of all necessary information take place with both the risk managers who ask the question and the stakeholders. During the first mandate of the BIOHAZ Panel (2003-2006), the scientific opinions were mainly based on qualitative and in some cases semi-quantitative microbiological risk assessment. In the second mandate of the BIOHAZ Panel, and as a first step towards developing a European approach on Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA), EFSA is preparing to carry out a QMRA on Salmonella in pigs, at European level through a consortium of European institutes.

  17. Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Mihalchuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

  18. 78 FR 13056 - Proposed CERCLA Administrative Cost Recovery Settlement; in re: Factory H Superfund Site, Meriden...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-26

    ... AGENCY Proposed CERCLA Administrative Cost Recovery Settlement; in re: Factory H Superfund Site, Meriden...)(1) concerning the Factory H Superfund Site in Meriden, Connecticut (``Site'') with the following... refer to the Factory H Superfund Site, U.S. EPA Docket No. CERCLA-01-2012-0112. FOR FURTHER...

  19. 75 FR 53694 - Florida Petroleum Reprocessors Superfund Site; Davie, Broward County, FL; Notice of Settlement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-01

    ...] Florida Petroleum Reprocessors Superfund Site; Davie, Broward County, FL; Notice of Settlement AGENCY... Florida Petroleum Reprocessors Superfund Site located in Davie, Broward County, Florida for publication..., identified by Docket ID No. EPA-RO4- SFUND-2010-0729 or Site name Florida Petroleum Reprocessors Superfund...

  20. 77 FR 8255 - Constitution Road Drum Superfund Site, Atlanta, Dekalb County, GA; Notice of Settlement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-14

    ... AGENCY Constitution Road Drum Superfund Site, Atlanta, Dekalb County, GA; Notice of Settlement AGENCY... entered into a settlement for past response costs concerning the Constitution Road Drum Superfund Site... available from Ms. Paula V. Painter. Submit your comments by Site name Constitution Road Drum Superfund...

  1. Respiratory risk assessment prior to extrathoracic surgery

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2011-04-11

    Apr 11, 2011 ... changes that occur as a result of upper abdominal surgery and anaesthesia. .... that general anaesthesia leads to a higher risk of clinically important ... a history of exercise intolerance, chronic cough, or unexplained dyspnoea ...

  2. Ecological Risk Assessment of Jarosite Waste Disposal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihone Kerolli-Mustafa

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Jarosite waste, originating from zinc extraction industry, is considered hazardous due to the presence and the mobility of toxic metals that it contains. Its worldwide disposal in many tailing damps has become a major ecological concern. Three different methods, namely modified Synthetic Precipitation Leaching Procedure (SPLP, three-stage BCR sequential extraction procedure and Potential Ecological Risk Index (PERI Method were used to access the ecological risk of jarosite waste disposal in Mitrovica Industrial Park, Kosovo. The combination of these methods can effectively identify the comprehensive and single pollution levels of heavy metals such as Zn, Pb, Cd, Cu, Ni and As present in jarosite waste. Moreover, the great positive relevance between leaching behavior of heavy metals and F1 fraction was supported by principal component analysis (PCA. PERI results indicate that Cd showed a very high risk class to the environment. The ecological risk of heavy metals declines in the following order: Cd>Zn>Cu>Pb>Ni>As.

  3. Assessing the Construct Validity of Risk Attitude

    OpenAIRE

    Joost M. E. Pennings; Ale Smidts

    2000-01-01

    Two major approaches to measuring risk attitude are compared. One, based on the expected utility model is derived from responses to lotteries and direct scaling. The other measure is a psychometric approach based on Likert statements that produces a unidimensional risk attitude scale. The data are from computer-assisted interviews of 346 Dutch owner-managers of hog farms, who made decisions about their own businesses. While the measures demonstrate some degree of convergent validity, those me...

  4. Assessment report on NRP sub-theme `Risk Analysis`

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L. [eds.] [University of Groningen, Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Groningen (Netherlands); Van Ham, J. [TNO Institute for Environmental Sciences, Delft (Netherlands); Olsthoorn, A.A. [VUA, Free University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs.

  5. [Risk assessment and risk control for occupational exposure to chemical toxicants from an isophorone nitrile device].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dejun; Fu, Xiaokuan; Kong, Fanling; Sui, Shaofeng; Jiang, Yuanyuan; Du, Yinglin; Zhou, Jingyang

    2014-06-01

    Risk assessment and risk control for occupational exposure to chemical toxicants were performed on an isophorone nitrile device with an annual production of 5,000 tons, based on improved Singaporean semi-quantitative risk assessment method, with consideration of actual situation in China and in the present project. With the use of engineering analysis and identification of occupational hazards in the improved Singaporean semi-quantitative risk assessment method, hazard rating (HR) and risk assessment were performed on chemical toxicants from an isophorone nitrile device with an annual production of 5,000 tons. The chemical toxicants in the isophorone nitrile device were mainly isophorone, hydrocyanic acid, methanol, phosphoric acid, sodium hydroxide, and sodium cyanide; the HR values were mild hazard (2), extreme hazard (5), mild hazard (2), mild hazard (2), moderate hazard (3), and extreme hazard (5), respectively, and the corresponding exposure rating (ER) values were 2.09, 2.72, 2.76, 1.68, 2.0, and 1.59, respectively. The risk of chemical toxicants in this project was assessed according to the formula Risk = [HR×ER](1/2). Hydrocyanic acid was determined as high risk, sodium hydroxide and sodium cyanide as medium risk, and isophorone, methanol, and phosphoric acid as low risk. Priority in handling of risks was determined by risk rating. The table of risk control measure was established for pre-assessment of occupational hazards. With risk assessment in this study, we concluded that the isophorone nitrile device with 5,000 ton annual production was a high-occupational hazard device. This device is a project of extreme occupational hazard. The improved Singaporean semi-quantitative risk assessment method is a scientific and applicable method, and is especially suitable for pre-evaluation of on-site project with no analogy.

  6. Quantitative ecological risk assessment of inhabitants exposed to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in terrestrial soils of King George Island, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pongpiachan, S.; Hattayanone, M.; Pinyakong, O.; Viyakarn, V.; Chavanich, S. A.; Bo, C.; Khumsup, C.; Kittikoon, I.; Hirunyatrakul, P.

    2017-03-01

    This study aims to conduct a quantitative ecological risk assessment of human exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in terrestrial soils of King George Island, Antarctica. Generally, the average PAH concentrations detected in King George Terrestrial Soils (KGS) were appreciably lower than those of World Marine Sediments (WMS) and World Terrestrial Soils (WTS), highlighting the fact that Antarctica is one of the most pristine continents in the world. The total concentrations of twelve probably carcinogenic PAHs (ΣPAHs: a sum of Phe, An, Fluo, Pyr, B[a]A, Chry, B[b]F, B[k]F, B[a]P, Ind, D[a,h]A and B[g,h,i]P) were 3.21 ± 1.62 ng g-1, 5749 ± 4576 ng g-1, and 257,496 ± 291,268 ng g-1, for KGS, WMS and WTS, respectively. In spite of the fact that KGS has extremely low ΣPAHs in comparison with others, the percentage contribution of Phe is exceedingly high with the value of 50%. By assuming that incidental ingestion and dermal contact are two major exposure pathways responsible for the adverse human health effects, the cancer and non-cancer risks from environmental exposure to PAHs were carefully evaluated based on the ;Role of the Baseline Risk Assessment in Superfund Remedy Selection Decisions; memorandum provided by US-EPA. The logarithms of cancer risk levels of PAH contents in KGS varied from -11.1 to -7.18 with an average of -7.96 ± 7.73, which is 1790 times and 80,176 times lower than that of WMS and WTS, respectively. All cancer risk levels of PAH concentrations observed in KGS are significantly (p < 0.001) lower than those of WMS and WTS. Despite the Comandante Ferraz Antarctic Station fire occurred in February 25th, 2012, both the cancer and non-cancer risks of environmental exposure to PAHs were found in ;acceptable level;.

  7. Ozone flux modelling for risk assessment: status and research needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuovinen J-P

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, some shortcomings involved in the modelling of ozone fluxes in the context of local-scale risk assessment are discussed, especially as related to the data collected within the International Co-operative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests (ICP Forests. An enhanced monitoring strategy, that would provide a sounder basis for the development, validation and application of risk assessment modelling tools, is also suggested.

  8. Mercury from dental amalgam: exposure and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koral, Stephen M

    2013-02-01

    There has long been an undercurrent within the dental profession of anti-amalgam sentiment, a "mercury-free" movement. To assess whether anything is or is not scientifically wrong with amalgam, one must look to the vast literature on exposure, toxicology, and risk assessment of mercury. The subject of risk assessment goes straight to the heart of the debate over whether a malgam is safe, or not, for unrestricted use in dentistry in the population at large.

  9. Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider t...

  10. The readability of online breast cancer risk assessment tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortez, Sarah; Milbrandt, Melissa; Kaphingst, Kimberly; James, Aimee; Colditz, Graham

    2015-11-01

    Numerous breast cancer risk assessment tools that allow users to input personal risk information and obtain a personalized breast cancer risk estimate are available on the Internet. The goal of these tools is to increase screening awareness and identify modifiable health behaviors; however, the utility of this risk information is limited by the readability of the material. We undertook this study to assess the overall readability of breast cancer risk assessment tools and accompanying information, as well as to identify areas of suggested improvement. We searched for breast cancer risk assessment tools, using five search terms, on three search engines. All searches were performed on June 12, 2014. Sites that met inclusion criteria were then assessed for readability using the suitability assessment of materials (SAM) and the SMOG readability formula (July 1, 2014–January 31, 2015). The primary outcomes are the frequency distribution of overall SAM readability category (superior, adequate, or not suitable) and mean SMOG reading grade level. The search returned 42 sites were eligible for assessment, only 9 (21.4 %) of which achieved an overall SAM superior rating, and 27 (64.3 %) were deemed adequate. The average SMOG reading grade level was grade 12.1 (SD 1.6, range 9–15). The readability of breast cancer risk assessment tools and the sites that host them is an important barrier to risk communication. This study demonstrates that most breast cancer risk assessment tools are not accessible to individuals with limited health literacy skills. More importantly, this study identifies potential areas of improvement and has the potential to heighten a physician’s awareness of the Internet resources a patient might navigate in their quest for breast cancer risk information.

  11. Geophysical logging at the Cristex Drum National Priorities List Superfund Site near Oxford, North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antolino, Dominick J.

    2017-01-01

    The collection of borehole geophysical logs data was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey South Atlantic Water Science Center in the vicinity of the Cristex Drum National Priorities List Superfund Site near Oxford, North Carolina, during January through March 2016. In an effort to assist the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in the development of a conceptual groundwater model for the assessment of current contaminant distribution and future migration of contaminants, borehole geophysical log and image data collection, which included the delineation of more than 150 subsurface features (primarily fracture orientations) in 3 open borehole wells.

  12. [Study on the risk assessment method of regional groundwater pollution].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yan; Yu, Yun-Jiang; Wang, Zong-Qing; Li, Ding-Long; Sun, Hong-Wei

    2013-02-01

    Based on the boundary elements of system risk assessment, the regional groundwater pollution risk assessment index system was preliminarily established, which included: regional groundwater specific vulnerability assessment, the regional pollution sources characteristics assessment and the health risk assessment of regional featured pollutants. The three sub-evaluation systems were coupled with the multi-index comprehensive method, the risk was characterized with the Spatial Analysis of ArcMap, and a new method to evaluate regional groundwater pollution risk that suitable for different parts of natural conditions, different types of pollution was established. Take Changzhou as an example, the risk of shallow groundwater pollution was studied with the new method, and found that the vulnerability index of groundwater in Changzhou is high and distributes unevenly; The distribution of pollution sources is concentrated and has a great impact on groundwater pollution risks; Influenced by the pollutants and pollution sources, the values of health risks are high in the urban area of Changzhou. The pollution risk of shallow groundwater is high and distributes unevenly, and distributes in the north of the line of Anjia-Xuejia-Zhenglu, the center of the city and the southeast, where the human activities are more intense and the pollution sources are intensive.

  13. Risk assessment in the North Caucasus ski resorts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton Y.; Seliverstov, Yury G.; Glazovskaya, Tatyana G.; Turchaninova, Alla S.

    2016-10-01

    Avalanches pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of Russia. The constant growth of economic activity, and therefore the increased avalanche hazard, in the North Caucasus region lead to demand for the development of large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments.The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of the Russian Federation (Federal Law 21.12.1994 N 68-FZ, 2016). However, Russian guidelines (SNIP 11-02-96, 2013; SNIP 22-02-2003, 2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. Thus, we discuss these problems by presenting a new avalanche risk assessment approach, with the example of developing but poorly researched ski resort areas. The suggested method includes the formulas to calculate collective and individual avalanche risk. The results of risk analysis are shown in quantitative data that can be used to determine levels of avalanche risk (appropriate, acceptable and inappropriate) and to suggest methods to decrease the individual risk to an acceptable level or better. The analysis makes it possible to compare risk quantitative data obtained from different regions, analyze them and evaluate the economic feasibility of protection measures.

  14. Risk Assessment Techniques and Survey Method for COTS Components

    CERN Document Server

    Gupta, Rashmi

    2012-01-01

    The Rational Unified Process a software engineering process is gaining popularity nowadays. RUP delivers best software practices for component software Development life cycle It supports component based software development. Risk is involved in every component development phase .neglecting those risks sometimes hampers the software growth and leads to negative outcome. In Order to provide appropriate security and protection levels, identifying various risks is very vital. Therefore Risk identification plays a very crucial role in the component based software development This report addresses incorporation of component based software development cycle into RUP phases, assess several category of risk encountered in the component based software. It also entails a survey method to identify the risk factor and evaluating the overall severity of the component software development in terms of the risk. Formula for determining risk prevention cost and finding the risk probability is also been included. The overall go...

  15. Identification of Potential Hazard using Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, R. M.; Syahputri, K.; Rizkya, I.; Siregar, I.

    2017-03-01

    This research was conducted in the paper production’s company. These Paper products will be used as a cigarette paper. Along in the production’s process, Company provides the machines and equipment that operated by workers. During the operations, all workers may potentially injured. It known as a potential hazard. Hazard identification and risk assessment is one part of a safety and health program in the stage of risk management. This is very important as part of efforts to prevent occupational injuries and diseases resulting from work. This research is experiencing a problem that is not the identification of potential hazards and risks that would be faced by workers during the running production process. The purpose of this study was to identify the potential hazards by using hazard identification and risk assessment methods. Risk assessment is done using severity criteria and the probability of an accident. According to the research there are 23 potential hazard that occurs with varying severity and probability. Then made the determination Risk Assessment Code (RAC) for each potential hazard, and gained 3 extreme risks, 10 high risks, 6 medium risks and 3 low risks. We have successfully identified potential hazard using RAC.

  16. Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2015-04-01

    Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

  17. Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebner, G.

    2009-04-01

    Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

  18. Sensitivity of Coastal Flood Risk Assessments to Digital Elevation Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bas van de Sande

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Most coastal flood risk studies make use of a Digital Elevation Model (DEM in addition to a projected flood water level in order to estimate the flood inundation and associated damages to property and livelihoods. The resolution and accuracy of a DEM are critical in a flood risk assessment, as land elevation largely determines whether a location will be flooded or will remain dry during a flood event. Especially in low lying deltaic areas, the land elevation variation is usually in the order of only a few decimeters, and an offset of various decimeters in the elevation data has a significant impact on the accuracy of the risk assessment. Publicly available DEMs are often used in studies for coastal flood risk assessments. The accuracy of these datasets is relatively low, in the order of meters, and is especially low in comparison to the level of accuracy required for a flood risk assessment in a deltaic area. For a coastal zone area in Nigeria (Lagos State an accurate LiDAR DEM dataset was adopted as ground truth concerning terrain elevation. In the case study, the LiDAR DEM was compared to various publicly available DEMs. The coastal flood risk assessment using various publicly available DEMs was compared to a flood risk assessment using LiDAR DEMs. It can be concluded that the publicly available DEMs do not meet the accuracy requirement of coastal flood risk assessments, especially in coastal and deltaic areas. For this particular case study, the publically available DEMs highly overestimated the land elevation Z-values and thereby underestimated the coastal flood risk for the Lagos State area. The findings are of interest when selecting data sets for coastal flood risk assessments in low-lying deltaic areas.

  19. A risk assessment for acrylonitrile in consumer products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, P K; Rock, A R

    1990-12-15

    A carcinogenic risk assessment for acrylonitrile in consumer products was prepared as part of the Second Workshop on Pragmatics of Risk Assessment, Bethesda, MD. Data from one inhalation and two oral rat bioassays served as input into several high-to-low-dose mathematical risk extrapolation models. The final unit risk estimates for humans were based on maximum likelihood estimates from the Global83 implementation of the multistage model after adjustments for surface area differences, continuous versus intermittent exposures, and the proportion of lifetime exposed. The unit risk estimates for lifetime exposure to 1 mg kg-1 day-1 by inhalation and ingestion were 0.0531 and 0.2385, respectively. These risks are equivalent to risks of 3.3 x 10(-8) for inhalation of 1 ppt in air and 3.4 x 10(-9) for ingestion of 1 ng day.-1

  20. Economic Risk Assessment Taking Into Account the Volume Oscillator Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loredana Mihaela LAPADUSI

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Economic risk can be assessed from many points of view, but generally speaking it means the firm's inability to match workload with cost structure. Expansion of production capacity, adaptation to new technologies, diversification of products are only a few factors influencing risk. These, along with financial risk and bankruptcy risk constitute the most important category of risk which presents a great interest for the banks, shareholders, managers, business partners, etc. The purpose of this article is to provide a brief overview of tje oscillation of your company's activity from the point of view of economic risk. The main objective of this research lies in economic risk assessment by means of the margin of safety, the safety index and critical time point.

  1. Field analytical support during Superfund site remediation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldschmidt, W.L.; Catherman, D.R. [Environmental Resources Management, Inc., Exton, PA (United States)

    1995-12-31

    ERM-FAST{reg_sign} Services has provided cost-effective and critical field analytical support for a wide variety of investigatory and remedial projects over the past four years. Two recent projects involving soils remediation at Superfund sites exemplify the power of real time field analytical support in reducing time and expense during a project`s remedial phase. ERM-FAST on-site analytical facilities were able to meet, in a real time scenario, all data quality objectives (DQOs), all regulatory agency requirements, and satisfied the client`s needs. ERM-FAST made this possible through the development of unique analytical strategies, the proper selection of analytical technologies, and by streamlining the analytical methodologies. Both of these remedial efforts offer illustrations of the effectiveness of field analysis for vastly differing site contaminants. This case study focuses on the use of portable Gas Chromatography (GC) instrumentation as a tool for providing analytical support during a CERCLA site remediation program. The project discussed provides an example of how low cost portable analytical instrumentation can be utilized in a field setting to meet analytical DQOs consistent with CERCLA compliance and to meet the requirements for remedial activity cost control. Substantial savings were realized both by reducing total project analytical cost, and by efficient and effective process and schedule management.

  2. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter M. J. Bos

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  3. Social risk assessment of large technical systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pasman, H.J.; Vrijling, J.K.

    2003-01-01

    A probabilistic approach to engineering advances. Since risk adhering to a technical structure can be determined quantitatively easier and more accurately than before, criteria for decision making are becoming more important. If the structure is in the public domain, and benefits are not felt, the v

  4. Contract farming risks: A quantitative assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arkins M Kabungo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to identify the key risks facing each of the stakeholders in the export-focused paprika value chain in Zambia. Although a deterministic cost-benefit analysis indicated that this outgrower scheme would have a very satisfactory net present value (NPV, a Monte Carlo analysis using an integrated financial–economic–stakeholder model identifies a number of risk variables that could make this system unsustainable. The major risks include the variability of the real exchange rate in Zambia; the international price of paprika; and the farm yield rates. This analysis points out that irrigation systems are very important for both stabilising and increasing yields. The analysis also shows the limitations of loan financing for such outgrower arrangements when at the sector level it is difficult or even impossible to mitigate the risks from real exchange rate movements and changes in international commodity prices. This micro-level analysis shows how critical real exchange rate management policies are in achieving sustainability of such export-oriented value chains.

  5. Trait-based ecological risk assessment (TERA): the new frontier?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baird, Donald J; Rubach, Mascha N; Van den Brink, Paul J

    2008-01-01

    Traits describe the physical characteristics, ecological niche, and functional role of species within ecosystems, and trait-based approaches are now being introduced into the field of Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA). The costs and benefits arising from the adoption of these approaches in the assessment of risks from toxic substances are described, and the path forward for this new frontier in risk assessment science is presented. In particular, the necessity for more open collaboration and web-based data-sharing to facilitate the development of these exciting new tools is stressed, and the role of scientific organizations such as SETAC as promoters of this ambitious program is highlighted.

  6. [Use of ionizing radiation sources in metallurgy: risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giugni, U

    2012-01-01

    Use of ionizing radiation sources in the metallurgical industry: risk assessment. Radioactive sources and fixed or mobile X-ray equipment are used for both process and quality control. The use of ionizing radiation sources requires careful risk assessment. The text lists the characteristics of the sources and the legal requirements, and contains a description of the documentation required and the methods used for risk assessment. It describes how to estimate the doses to operators and the relevant classification criteria used for the purpose of radiation protection. Training programs must be organized in close collaboration between the radiation protection expert and the occupational physician.

  7. M/OD Risk Assessment System and Its Applications

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Hai-fu; YU Qing-bo; LIU You-ying; WANG Hui

    2009-01-01

    A risk assessment system named meteoroid & orbital debris risk assessment system (MODRAS) developed for assessing risks of the spacecraft under the meteoroid and debris environment (M/OD EM) is presented.The computing resolution of MODRAS has been verified by both the three generic spacecraft geometries of inter agency debris committee (IADC) and similar foreign software such as BUMPER,ESABASE,and MDPANTO.The results show that the system is fit well with the computing results of the foreign software.Typical applications of the system are also presented,including a manned spacecraft and a space shuttle.

  8. Risk Communication: the connection between assessment and management of changing risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sprague, Teresa; Prenger-Berninghoff, Kathrin; Charrière, Marie

    2013-04-01

    Working toward effective risk mitigation strategies amidst ever-present and increasingly changing risks requires first effective communication between assessment and management spheres. This notion permeates the spectrum of what can be considered the physical changing risk inputs that feed into the risk governance processes of assessment, management and communication of risks. Close connections and overlaps between assessment and management requires communication to serve as the crux for the close collaboration necessary for encouraging preventative, long-term strategies for reducing disaster risks.1 More specifically, communication of risk information plays this connective role by informing and advising policy and decision making processes conducted by actors such as spatial planners who receive this information. In this way, those who assess the risks provide information to those who must manage these risks. When this one-directional communication pathway is reciprocated, risk managers provide information to risk assessors, enabling two-way communication amongst actors working toward risk reduction. This communication and exchange of information enables development of strategies and actions taken toward creating and improving risk mitigation measures within a given territory and community. Further, management actions taken (especially for mitigative measures) can alter the physical and social elements of the spatial context of their territory.2 This demands an adjustment of the previous risk assessment information and communication of the change in potential risk. These conceptual underpinnings are addressed and presented through explanation of an analytical framework encompassing changing risk inputs into risk governance processes. The framework elaborates the risk communication component and is supported by practical examples from stakeholder meetings and site visits in the Polish and Romania case study areas of the Marie Curie ITN, CHANGES.3 Specific examples

  9. Developing a pressure ulcer risk factor minimum data set and risk assessment framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coleman, S.; Nelson, E.A.; Keen, J.; Wilson, L.; McGinnis, E.; Dealey, C.; Stubbs, N.; Muir, D.; Farrin, A.; Dowding, D.; Schols, J.M.; Cuddigan, J.; Berlowitz, D.; Jude, E.; Vowden, P.; Bader, D.L.; Gefen, A.; Oomens, C.W.; Schoonhoven, L.; Nixon, J.

    2014-01-01

    AIM: To agree a draft pressure ulcer risk factor Minimum Data Set to underpin the development of a new evidenced-based Risk Assessment Framework. BACKGROUND: A recent systematic review identified the need for a pressure ulcer risk factor Minimum Data Set and development and validation of an evidence

  10. The Effect of Genetic Risk Information and Health Risk Assessment on Compliance with Preventive Behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bamberg, Richard; And Others

    1990-01-01

    Results from a study of 82 males provide no statistical support and limited encouragement that genetic risk information may motivate persons to make positive changes in preventive health behaviors. Health risk assessments were used to identify subjects at risk for coronary heart disease or lung cancer because of genetic factors. (IAH)

  11. Post-Remediation Biomonitoring of Pesticides and Other Contaminants in Marine Waters and Sediment Near the United Heckathorn Superfund Site, Richmond, California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LD Antrim; NP Kohn

    2000-09-06

    This report, PNNL-1 3059 Rev. 1, was published in July 2000 and replaces PNNL-1 3059 which is dated October 1999. The revision corrects tissue concentration units that were reported as dry weight but were actually wet weight, and updates conclusions based on the correct reporting units. Marine sediment remediation at the United Heckathorn Superfund Site was completed in April 1997. Water and mussel tissues were sampled in February 1999 from four stations near Lauritzen Canal in Richmond, California, for Year 2 of post-remediation monitoring of marine areas near the United Heckathom Site. Dieldrin and dichlorodiphenyl trichloroethane (DDT) were analyzed in water samples, tissue samples from resident mussels, and tissue samples from transplanted mussels deployed for 4 months. Concentrations of dieldrin and total DDT in water and total DDT in tissue were compared with Year 1 of post-remediation monitoring, and with preremediation data from the California State Mussel Watch program (tissue s) and the Ecological Risk Assessment for the United Heckathorn Superfund Site (tissues and water). Mussel tissues were also analyzed for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB), which were detected in sediment samples. Chlorinated pesticide concentrations in water samples were similar to preremediation levels and did not meet remediation goals. Mean dieldrin concentrations in water ranged from 0.62 ng/L to 12.5 ng/L and were higher than the remediation goal (0.14 ng/L) at all stations. Mean total DDT concentrations in water ranged from 14.4 ng/L to 62.3 ng/L and exceeded the remediation goal (0.59 ng/L) at all stations. The highest concentrations of both DDT and dieldrin were found at the Lauritzen Canal/End station. Despite exceedence of the remediation goals, chlorinated pesticide concentrations in Lauritzen Canal water samples were notably lower in 1999 than in 1998. PCBS were not detected in water samples in 1999.

  12. Towards meaningful stakeholder comprehension of sour gas facility risk assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McAuley, C.; Hrudey, S.E. [Alberta Univ., Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept. of Public Health Sciences

    2006-01-15

    This study addressed public concerns in Alberta regarding the development of sour gas projects that are in close proximity to established populations. In particular, it focused on the reasoning of different perspectives of risk assessment between proponents of a sour gas development and the stakeholders affected. The main issues reviewed in this study were the toxicity of hydrogen sulphide and the toxic load models; the specifics of risk assessment and the risk estimation associated with pipeline failures; hazard distances associated with various end-points and set-back distances; the uncertainty that a pipeline failure will occur somewhere; a comparison of other risk scenarios where there are unknown exposure populations; risk management and risk issue management for pipeline failures; the evaluation of risk communication and validation of risk reduction measures and the issue of which risks could provide a useful basis for comparison in discussion about risk acceptability. It was noted that although zero risk is impossible, it was suggested that a better communication and understanding of the health affects of hydrogen sulphide and the toxic load concept in both public and regulatory forums would reduce uncertainty in health risk estimates associated with sour gas pipeline failures. 36 refs., 3 tabs.

  13. Family history assessment: impact on disease risk perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Catharine; Sen, Ananda; Ruffin, Mack T; Nease, Donald E; Gramling, Robert; Acheson, Louise S; O'Neill, Suzanne M; Rubinstein, Wendy S

    2012-10-01

    Family Healthware™, a tool developed by the CDC, is a self-administered web-based family history tool that assesses familial risk for six diseases (coronary heart disease; stroke; diabetes; and colon, breast, and ovarian cancers) and provides personalized prevention messages based on risk. The Family Healthware Impact Trial (FHITr) set out to examine the clinical utility of presenting personalized preventive messages tailored to family history risk for improving health behaviors. The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of Family Healthware on modifying disease risk perceptions, particularly among those who initially underestimated their risk for certain diseases. A total of 3786 patients were enrolled in a cluster-randomized trial to evaluate the clinical utility of Family Healthware. Participants were recruited from 41 primary care practices among 13 states between 2005 and 2007. Perceived risk for each disease was assessed at baseline and 6-month follow-up using a single-item comparative risk question. Analyses were completed in March 2012. Compared to controls, Family Healthware increased risk perceptions among those who underestimated their risk for heart disease (15% vs 9%, prisk perceptions. Family Healthware was effective at increasing disease risk perceptions, particularly for metabolic conditions, among those who underestimated their risk. Results from this study also demonstrate the relatively resistant nature of risk perceptions. This study is registered at clinicaltrials.govNCT00164658. Copyright © 2012 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

  14. Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John W. Collins

    2011-09-01

    Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap

  15. Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

    2015-11-01

    Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

  16. Data and literature gathering in chemical cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silins, Ilona; Korhonen, Anna; Högberg, Johan; Stenius, Ulla

    2012-07-01

    In recent years, chemical cancer risk assessment has faced major challenges: the demand for cancer risk assessment has grown considerably with strict legislation regarding chemical safety, whereas cancer hazard identification has turned increasingly complex due to the rapid development and high publication rate in biomedical sciences. Thus, much of the scientific evidence required for hazard identification is hidden in large collections of biomedical literature. Extensive guidelines have been produced to support cancer risk assessment under these circumstances. We evaluated whether these guidelines support the first, critical step of this task--data and literature gathering--and found that the guidance is vague. We propose ways to improve data and literature gathering for cancer risk assessment and suggest developing a computational literature search and analysis tool dedicated to the task. We describe the first prototype tool we have developed and discuss how it could help to improve the quality, consistency, and effectiveness of cancer risk assessment when developed further. Fully reliable automatic data and literature gathering may not be realistic; the retrieved articles will always need to be examined further by risk assessors. However, our proposal offers a starting point for improved data and literature gathering that can benefit the whole cancer risk assessment process. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  17. Do pressure ulcer risk assessment scales improve clinical practice?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Kottner

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Jan Kottner1, Katrin Balzer21Department of Nursing Science, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Germany; 2Nursing Research Group, Institute for Social Medicine, Universitätsklinikum Schleswig-Holstein, Lübeck, GermanyAbstract: Standardized assessment instruments are deemed important for estimating pressure ulcer risk. Today, more than 40 so-called pressure ulcer risk assessment scales are available but still there is an ongoing debate about their usefulness. From a measurement point of view pressure ulcer (PU risk assessment scales have serious limitations. Empirical evidence supporting the validity of PU risk assessment scale scores is weak and obtained scores contain varying amounts of measurement error. The concept of pressure ulcer risk is strongly related to the general health status and severity of illness. A clinical impact due do the application of these scales could also not be demonstrated. It is questionable whether completion of standardized pressure ulcer risk scales in clinical practice is really needed.Keywords: Braden pressure ulcer, prevention, risk assessment, nursing assessment, predictive value, clinical effectiveness, review

  18. Risk-assessment methodology for fast breeder reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ott, K. O.

    1976-04-01

    The methods applied or proposed for risk assessment of nuclear reactors are reviewed, particularly with respect to their applicability for risk assessment of future commercial fast breeder reactors. All methods are based on the calculation of accident consequences for relatively few accident scenarios. The role and general impact of uncertainties in fast-reactor accident analysis are discussed. The discussion shows the need for improvement of the methodology. A generalized and improved risk-assessment methodology is outlined and proposed (accident-spectra-progression approach). The generalization consists primarily of an explicit treatment of uncertainties throughout the accident progression. The results of this method are obtained in form of consequence distributions. The width and shape of the distributions depend in part on the superposition of the uncertainties. The first moment of the consequence distribution gives an improved prediction of the ''average'' consequence. The higher-consequence moments can be used for consideration of risk aversion. The assessment of the risk of one or a certain number of nuclear reactors can only provide an ''isolated'' risk assessment. The general problem of safety risk assessment and its relation to public acceptance of certain modes of power production is a much broader problem area, which is also discussed.

  19. Designing trials for pressure ulcer risk assessment research: methodological challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balzer, K; Köpke, S; Lühmann, D; Haastert, B; Kottner, J; Meyer, G

    2013-08-01

    For decades various pressure ulcer risk assessment scales (PURAS) have been developed and implemented into nursing practice despite uncertainty whether use of these tools helps to prevent pressure ulcers. According to current methodological standards, randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are required to conclusively determine the clinical efficacy and safety of this risk assessment strategy. In these trials, PURAS-aided risk assessment has to be compared to nurses' clinical judgment alone in terms of its impact on pressure ulcer incidence and adverse outcomes. However, RCTs evaluating diagnostic procedures are prone to specific risks of bias and threats to the statistical power which may challenge their validity and feasibility. This discussion paper critically reflects on the rigour and feasibility of experimental research needed to substantiate the clinical efficacy of PURAS-aided risk assessment. Based on reflections of the methodological literature, a critical appraisal of available trials on this subject and an analysis of a protocol developed for a methodologically robust cluster-RCT, this paper arrives at the following conclusions: First, available trials do not provide reliable estimates of the impact of PURAS-aided risk assessment on pressure ulcer incidence compared to nurses' clinical judgement alone due to serious risks of bias and insufficient sample size. Second, it seems infeasible to assess this impact by means of rigorous experimental studies since sample size would become extremely high if likely threats to validity and power are properly taken into account. Third, means of evidence linkages seem to currently be the most promising approaches for evaluating the clinical efficacy and safety of PURAS-aided risk assessment. With this kind of secondary research, the downstream effect of use of PURAS on pressure ulcer incidence could be modelled by combining best available evidence for single parts of this pathway. However, to yield reliable modelling

  20. Establishing a family risk assessment clinic for breast cancer.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Mulsow, Jurgen

    2012-02-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer affecting European women and the leading cause of cancer-related death. A total of 15-20% of women who develop breast cancer have a family history and 5-10% a true genetic predisposition. The identification and screening of women at increased risk may allow early detection of breast cancer and improve prognosis. We established a family risk assessment clinic in May 2005 to assess and counsel women with a family history of breast cancer, to initiate surveillance, and to offer risk-reducing strategies for selected high-risk patients. Patients at medium or high risk of developing breast cancer according to NICE guidelines were accepted. Family history was determined by structured questionnaire and interview. Lifetime risk of developing breast cancer was calculated using Claus and Tyrer-Cuzick scoring. Risk of carrying a breast cancer-related gene mutation was calculated using the Manchester system. One thousand two hundred and forty-three patients have been referred. Ninety-two percent were at medium or high risk of developing breast cancer. Formal assessment of risk has been performed in 368 patients, 73% have a high lifetime risk of developing breast cancer, and 72% a Manchester score >or=16. BRCA1\\/2 mutations have been identified in 14 patients and breast cancer diagnosed in two. Our initial experience of family risk assessment has shown there to be a significant demand for this service. Identification of patients at increased risk of developing breast cancer allows us to provide individuals with accurate risk profiles, and enables patients to make informed choices regarding their follow-up and management.

  1. Risk assessment in neonatal early onset sepsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhopadhyay, Sagori; Puopolo, Karen M

    2012-12-01

    The incidence of neonatal early onset sepsis has declined with the widespread use of intrapartum antibiotic therapies, yet early onset sepsis remains a potentially fatal condition, particularly among very low birth-weight infants. Clinical signs of neonatal infection are nonspecific and may be absent in the immediate postnatal period. Maternal and infant clinical characteristics, as well as infant laboratory values, have been used to identify newborns at risk and to administer empiric antibiotic therapy to prevent progression to more severe illness. Such approaches result in the evaluation of approximately 15% of asymptomatic term and late preterm infants and of nearly all preterm infants. The development of multivariate predictive models may provide more accurate methods of identifying newborns at highest risk and allow for more limited newborn antibiotic exposures. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Ecological risk assessment as a framework for environmental impact assessments

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Claassen, Marius

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental impact assessments in South Africa are usually conducted according to the integrated environmental management (IEM) procedure. The preliminary investigation reported here, indicated that most of the ecological requirements specified...

  3. Development of Improved Caprock Integrity and Risk Assessment Techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruno, Michael [Geomechanics Technologies, Incorporated, Monrovia, CA (United States)

    2014-09-30

    GeoMechanics Technologies has completed a geomechanical caprock integrity analysis and risk assessment study funded through the US Department of Energy. The project included: a detailed review of historical caprock integrity problems experienced in the natural gas storage industry; a theoretical description and documentation of caprock integrity issues; advanced coupled transport flow modelling and geomechanical simulation of three large-scale potential geologic sequestration sites to estimate geomechanical effects from CO₂ injection; development of a quantitative risk and decision analysis tool to assess caprock integrity risks; and, ultimately the development of recommendations and guidelines for caprock characterization and CO₂ injection operating practices. Historical data from gas storage operations and CO₂ sequestration projects suggest that leakage and containment incident risks are on the order of 10-1 to 10-2, which is higher risk than some previous studies have suggested for CO₂. Geomechanical analysis, as described herein, can be applied to quantify risks and to provide operating guidelines to reduce risks. The risk assessment tool developed for this project has been applied to five areas: The Wilmington Graben offshore Southern California, Kevin Dome in Montana, the Louden Field in Illinois, the Sleipner CO₂ sequestration operation in the North Sea, and the In Salah CO₂ sequestration operation in North Africa. Of these five, the Wilmington Graben area represents the highest relative risk while the Kevin Dome area represents the lowest relative risk.

  4. Risk Assessment References: Documented Literature Search

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-01

    the risk that SARS might recur and to prepare appropriate contingency plans. Modelled on WHO’s influenza pandemic preparedness plan, the framework...evidence that the infection is neither a recognized human disease nor a potential zoonosis ." [p. 1521] Key words: Emerging infections; infectious...process DRDC CSS TN 2012-014 82 4.2.3.9 Measuring the Uncertainties of Pandemic Influenza Title: Measuring the Uncertainties of Pandemic Influenza

  5. Threat Based Risk Assessment for Enterprise Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-15

    trained practitioners and even skilled security experts can miss key threats or misunderstand the impact of breaches. Our goal is to automate and...attack risk is $1000 × 0.05, or $50. If the company grows to 10 employees and the probability any one of the employees is untrustworthy is again 0.05...then the expected loss per year is roughly $400, assuming the employees operate independently (Figure 9). This amount will certainly lead to loss of

  6. Assessing absolute changes in breast cancer risk due to modifiable risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quante, Anne S; Herz, Julia; Whittemore, Alice S; Fischer, Christine; Strauch, Konstantin; Terry, Mary Beth

    2015-07-01

    Clinical risk assessment involves absolute risk measures, but information on modifying risk and preventing cancer is often communicated in relative terms. To illustrate the potential impact of risk factor modification in model-based risk assessment, we evaluated the performance of the IBIS Breast Cancer Risk Evaluation Tool, with and without current body mass index (BMI), for predicting future breast cancer occurrence in a prospective cohort of 665 postmenopausal women. Overall, IBIS's accuracy (overall agreement between observed and assigned risks) and discrimination (AUC concordance between assigned risks and outcomes) were similar with and without the BMI information. However, in women with BMI > 25 kg/m(2), adding BMI information improved discrimination (AUC = 63.9 % and 61.4 % with and without BMI, P risk difference for a woman with high (27 kg/m(2)) versus low (21 kg/m(2)) BMI was only 0.3 % for a woman with neither affected first-degree relatives nor BRCA1 mutation, compared to 4.5 % for a mutation carrier with three such relatives. This contrast illustrates the value of using information on modifiable risk factors in risk assessment and in sharing information with patients of their absolute risks with and without modifiable risk factors.

  7. Risk managment of complex aquifers contaminated by chemical mixtures : numerical tools and human health risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Henri, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    Human impact on groundwater resources has led to a rapid growth of social concerns worldwide owing to an increasing presence of toxic chemicals released in the subsurface. Risk assessment provides the scientific tool needed to quantify the actual thread that these potential hazards pose to human health. Specifically, risk analysis enables decision makers to answer: What can happen? How likely is it to happen? What can be the consequences? Risk assessment is in this context essential. However,...

  8. How to assess your green fraud risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-02-15

    Pressure to conform to a sustainability agenda is coming from customers, investors, employees, industry bodies and the media. This agenda is evolving into a critical part of an organisation's business model, and their relationships, opening up new market opportunities and supporting cost efficiencies. But all changes in business activities also raise the risk of fraud and abuse. Sustainability is no exception. The potential for fraud tends to be greater in new markets, when information is imperfect, standards of measurement and verification are not harmonised and governance is weak. The sustainability marketplace, taken as a whole, is all of these things. To a large extent, the types of fraud appearing are not new. They represent the application of tried and tested fraudulent practices to the sustainability arena. A comprehensive and robust design, rather than an ad hoc, piecemeal approach, is essential for a successful sustainability strategy. An awareness of the risk of potential fraud and the need to incorporate measures to protect against it are part of that process. Sustainable business practices, including a company's mitigation and carbon markets activities, are disclosed as either financial or non-financial data. In this paper, PwC examines some of the green fraud risks that companies face when engaged in such activities and the steps they can take to mitigate or eliminate them.

  9. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    This report describes the geologic and hydrologic conditions and evaluates potential health risks to workers in the natural gas industry in the vicinity of the Gasbuggy, New Mexico, site, where the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission detonated an underground nuclear device in 1967. The 29-kiloton detonation took place 4,240 feet below ground surface and was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County, New Mexico, on land administered by Carson National Forest. A site-specific conceptual model was developed based on current understanding of the hydrologic and geologic environment. This conceptual model was used for establishing plausible contaminant exposure scenarios, which were then evaluated for human health risk potential. The most mobile and, therefore, the most probable contaminant that could result in human exposure is tritium. Natural gas production wells were identified as having the greatest potential for bringing detonation-derived contaminants (tritium) to the ground surface in the form of tritiated produced water. Three exposure scenarios addressing potential contamination from gas wells were considered in the risk evaluation: a gas well worker during gas-well-drilling operations, a gas well worker performing routine maintenance, and a residential exposure. The residential exposure scenario was evaluated only for comparison; permanent residences on national forest lands at the Gasbuggy site are prohibited

  10. Assessing Migration Risk for Scientific Data Formats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Frisz

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The majority of information about science, culture, society, economy and the environment is born digital, yet the underlying technology is subject to rapid obsolescence. One solution to this obsolescence, format migration, is widely practiced and supported by many software packages, yet migration has well known risks. For example, newer formats – even where similar in function – do not generally support all of the features of their predecessors, and, where similar features exist, there may be significant differences of interpretation.There appears to be a conflict between the wide use of migration and its known risks. In this paper we explore a simple hypothesis – that, where migration paths exist, the majority of data files can be safely migrated leaving only a few that must be handled more carefully – in the context of several scientific data formats that are or were widely used. Our approach is to gather information about potential migration mismatches and, using custom tools, evaluate a large collection of data files for the incidence of these risks. Our results support our initial hypothesis, though with some caveats. Further, we found that writing a tool to identify “risky” format features is considerably easier than writing a migration tool.

  11. Assessing Migration Risk for Scientific Data Formats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Frisz

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The majority of information about science, culture, society, economy and the environment is born digital, yet the underlying technology is subject to rapid obsolescence. One solution to this obsolescence, format migration, is widely practiced and supported by many software packages, yet migration has well known risks. For example, newer formats – even where similar in function – do not generally support all of the features of their predecessors, and, where similar features exist, there may be significant differences of interpretation.There appears to be a conflict between the wide use of migration and its known risks. In this paper we explore a simple hypothesis – that, where migration paths exist, the majority of data files can be safely migrated leaving only a few that must be handled more carefully – in the context of several scientific data formats that are or were widely used. Our approach is to gather information about potential migration mismatches and, using custom tools, evaluate a large collection of data files for the incidence of these risks. Our results support our initial hypothesis, though with some caveats. Further, we found that writing a tool to identify “risky” format features is considerably easier than writing a migration tool.

  12. Risk Assessment of Girls : Are There Any Sex Differences in Risk Factors for Re-offending and in Risk Profiles?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Put, Claudia E.; Dekovic, Maja; Hoeve, Machteld; Stams, Geert Jan J. M.; van der Laan, Peter H.; Langewouters, Femke E. M.

    2014-01-01

    The aims of this study were (a) to investigate sex differences in risk factors for re-offending and (b) to provide a risk assessment model for girls. The data of 1,396 adolescents who committed a criminal offense were examined. Both generic and sex-specific risk factors for re-offending were found.

  13. Risk assessment of girls: are there any sex differences in risk factors for reoffending and in risk profiles?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Put, C.E.; Deković, M.; Hoeve, M.; Stams, G.J.J.M.; van der Laan, P.H.; Langewouters, F.E.M.

    2014-01-01

    The aims of this study were (a) to investigate sex differences in risk factors for re-offending and (b) to provide a risk assessment model for girls. The data of 1,396 adolescents who committed a criminal offense were examined. Both generic and sex-specific risk factors for re-offending were found.

  14. Cryogenic Risk Assessments before Works in the LHC Tunnel

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    Tests conducted in 2013/4 demonstrated that a small, residual risk to expose personnel to a helium spill exists in the LHC. Helium spills with a mass flow of less than 100 g s^-1 could be caused by workers accidentally damaging sensitive equipment in the cryogenic distribution system, such as instrumentation feedthroughs. In order to control this risk, a cryogenic risk assessment for all works taking place in the vicinity of such sensitive equipment is mandatory. The risk assessment and its recommendations are approved by the hierarchy and the complex manager before work can start. After introducing the risk assessment procedure, I will give some feedback on its implementation and present status.

  15. Environmental Risk Assessment System for Phosphogypsum Tailing Dams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Sun

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams.

  16. Environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xin; Ning, Ping; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams.

  17. Accumulation risk assessment for the flooding hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Giorgio; Ghizzoni, Tatiana; Rudari, Roberto

    2010-05-01

    One of the main consequences of the demographic and economic development and of markets and trades globalization is represented by risks cumulus. In most cases, the cumulus of risks intuitively arises from the geographic concentration of a number of vulnerable elements in a single place. For natural events, risks cumulus can be associated, in addition to intensity, also to event's extension. In this case, the magnitude can be such that large areas, that may include many regions or even large portions of different countries, are stroked by single, catastrophic, events. Among natural risks, the impact of the flooding hazard cannot be understated. To cope with, a variety of mitigation actions can be put in place: from the improvement of monitoring and alert systems to the development of hydraulic structures, throughout land use restrictions, civil protection, financial and insurance plans. All of those viable options present social and economic impacts, either positive or negative, whose proper estimate should rely on the assumption of appropriate - present and future - flood risk scenarios. It is therefore necessary to identify proper statistical methodologies, able to describe the multivariate aspects of the involved physical processes and their spatial dependence. In hydrology and meteorology, but also in finance and insurance practice, it has early been recognized that classical statistical theory distributions (e.g., the normal and gamma families) are of restricted use for modeling multivariate spatial data. Recent research efforts have been therefore directed towards developing statistical models capable of describing the forms of asymmetry manifest in data sets. This, in particular, for the quite frequent case of phenomena whose empirical outcome behaves in a non-normal fashion, but still maintains some broad similarity with the multivariate normal distribution. Fruitful approaches were recognized in the use of flexible models, which include the normal

  18. Risk assessment and emerging chemicals hazards in foods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umberto Moscato

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available The main beliefs relating to the risk assessment of chemicals in foods, new chemicals in raw material as well as in food processing are briefly presented. Evaluation reviews of representative chemicals found in traditional and novel foods are given. Old and new processes or newly recognized compounds, that require careful assessment in terms of their potential human health impact, are discussed. As example of processing-related contaminants, a risk assessment for acrylamide, is described, providing two different approaches in food safety assessment and the management of carcinogenic contaminants.

  19. GIS malaria risk assessment of Akure North and South Local ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    GIS malaria risk assessment of Akure North and South Local Government Areas, Ondo State, Nigeria. ... Open Access DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT ... the areas were generated using a combination of field and satellite data in a GIS environment.

  20. Ecological Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Higher Plants (GMHP)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, C.; Damgaard, C.; Kjellsson, G.

    Preface This publication is a first version of a manual identifying the data needs for ecological risk assessment of genetically modified higher plants (GMHP). It is the intention of the authors to stimulate further discussion of what data are needed in order to conduct a proper ecological risk...... assessment of GM plants when application for placing on the market is made. It is our hope that both the scientific community, the biotechnological industry and the regulatory bodies will participate in the process of improving the present draft, so that it can develop into a useful tool for both...... the industry as well as the national regulatory bodies. Furthermore, we hope that these efforts will improve the transparency of risk assessment and harmonisation of the requirements for data. The report suggests a structured way to identify the data need for risk assessment of GMHPs. It does not discuss...

  1. Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this document is to describe a Framework for conducting human health risk assessments that are responsive to the needs of decision‐making processes in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

  2. Systematic Suicide Risk Assessment for Patients With Schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjørup Pedersen, Charlotte; Wallenstein Jensen, Signe Olrik; Gradus, Jaimie;

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: Systematic suicide risk assessment is recommended for patients with schizophrenia; however, little is known about the implementation of suicide risk assessment in routine clinical practice. The study aimed to determine the use of systematic suicide risk assessment at discharge...... and predictors of suicide attempt among hospitalized patients with schizophrenia in Denmark. Methods: A one-year follow-up study was conducted of 9,745 patients with schizophrenia who were discharged from psychiatric wards and registered in a national population-based schizophrenia registry between 2005 and 2009....... Results: The proportion of patients receiving suicide risk assessment at discharge from a psychiatric ward increased from 72% (95% confidence interval [CI]=71%-74%) in 2005, when the national monitoring began, to 89% (CI.89%-90%) in 2009. Within one year after discharge, 1% of all registered patients had...

  3. Metal Pollution and Ecological Risk Assessment in Sediment of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    Metal Pollution and Ecological Risk Assessment in Sediment of Artificial ... Vridi channel is the main connection of Ebrié lagoon ... pipeline installations, daily passage of ships and other ..... the oil and gas wharf installed within this estuary.

  4. The New Frontier in Risk Assessment: Estimation of Corporate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The New Frontier in Risk Assessment: Estimation of Corporate. Credit Rating ..... to signify the point in the business cycle during which a rating change was made. However, this ..... The Market for 'Lemons': Quality and Uncertainty in Market.

  5. Risk Informed Design Using Integrated Vehicle Rapid Assessment Tools Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A successful proof of concept was performed in FY 2012 integrating the Envision tool for parametric estimates of vehicle mass and the Rapid Response Risk Assessment...

  6. A resilience engineering approach to assess major accident risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hollnagel, E.

    2013-01-01

    This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12....

  7. Risk Assessment Considerations for Veterinary Medicines in Aquatic Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    This chapter provides a critical evaluation of prospective and retrospective risk assessment approaches for veterinary medicines in aquatic ecosystems and provides recommendations for possible alternative approaches for hazard characterization.

  8. Some perspectives for environmental risk assessment of urban stormwater management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Baun, Anders; Ledin, Anna

    2002-01-01

    Introduction of new technologies for disposing stormwater locally, e.g. via infiltration into the ground, implies that the 'traditional' list of key-substances is not exhaustive and consequently, consultants and authorities have difficulties deciding whether to approve new technologies for stormw...... and groundwater, in an integral and transparent manner. This paper reviews some concepts used within risk assessment of chemical substances and seeks to plot a course for further developments related to risk assessments of stormwater contaminants....... for stormwater disposal. The risk for contamination of surface waters also needs to be assessed, even though this contamination is silently accepted by society. A proper risk assessment needs to consider contamination of all environmental compartments within the urban environment, i.e. surface water, soil...

  9. Methodology for Radiological Risk Assessment of Deep Borehole Disposal Operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hardin, Ernest; Su, Jiann-Cherng; Peretz, Fred(ORNL)

    2017-03-01

    The primary purpose of the preclosure radiological safety assessment (that this document supports) is to identify risk factors for disposal operations, to aid in design for the deep borehole field test (DBFT) engineering demonstration.

  10. A Brief Assessment for HIV Risk: The TCU HVHP Form

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowan, Grace A.; Joe, George W.; Lehman, Wayne E. K.; Knight, Kevin

    2016-01-01

    Targeted HIV screens may help identify some risk-related concerns of drug-using offenders. The present study describes the Texas Christian University HIV/Hepatitis Risk Assessment (TCU HVHP) form, a 19-item self-report instrument measuring HIV and hepatitis risks based on a sample (N = 1,056) of offenders in eight prisons. Principal components analysis indicated four scales (Injection Risk, Condom Attitudes, Sex Risk, and AIDS Concern) with reliable psychometric properties with coefficient α reliabilities ranging from .72 to .88. Concurrent validities indicated the four scales were related to motivation for treatment, level of drug use, psychosocial functioning, and criminal thinking, although the patterns varied by gender. The TCU HVHP Form should be attractive to programs needing a brief assessment measuring HIV risk behaviors, attitudes toward condom use, and concerns about acquiring and transmitting HIV. PMID:27302708

  11. Remotely Sensed Quantitative Drought Risk Assessment in Vulnerable Agroecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalezios, N. R.; Blanta, A.; Spyropoulos, N. V.

    2012-04-01

    Hazard may be defined as a potential threat to humans and their welfare and risk (or consequence) as the probability of a hazard occurring and creating loss. Drought is considered as one of the major natural hazards with significant impact to agriculture, environment, economy and society. This paper deals with drought risk assessment, which the first step designed to find out what the problems are and comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk management which is not covered in this paper, there should be a fourth step to address the need for feedback and to take post-audits of all risk assessment exercises. In particular, quantitative drought risk assessment is attempted by using statistical methods. For the qualification of drought, the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) is employed, which is a new index based on hydrometeorological parameters, such as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The remotely sensed estimation of RDI is based on NOA-AVHRR satellite data for a period of 20 years (1981-2001). The study area is Thessaly, central Greece, which is a drought-prone agricultural region characterized by vulnerable agriculture. Specifically, the undertaken drought risk assessment processes are specified as follows: 1. Risk identification: This step involves drought quantification and monitoring based on remotely sensed RDI and extraction of several features such as severity, duration, areal extent, onset and end time. Moreover, it involves a drought early warning system based on the above parameters. 2. Risk estimation: This step includes an analysis of drought severity, frequency and their relationships. 3. Risk evaluation: This step covers drought evaluation based on analysis of RDI images before and after each drought episode, which usually lasts one hydrological year (12month). The results of these three-step drought assessment processes are considered quite satisfactory in a drought-prone region such as Thessaly in central

  12. Import Security: Assessing the Risks of Imported Food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welburn, Jonathan; Bier, Vicki; Hoerning, Steven

    2016-11-01

    We use data on food import violations from the FDA Operational and Administrative System for Import Support (OASIS) to address rising concerns associated with imported food, quantify import risks by product and by country of origin, and explore the usefulness of OASIS data for risk assessment. In particular, we assess whether there are significant trends in violations, whether import violations can be used to quantify risks by country and by product, and how import risks depend on economic factors of the country of origin. The results show that normalizing import violations by volume of imports provides a meaningful indicator of risk. We then use regression analysis to characterize import risks.  Using this model, we analyze import risks by product type, violation type, and economic factors of the country of origin.  We find that OASIS data are useful in quantifying food import risks, and that the rate of refusals provides a useful decision tool for risk management.  Furthermore, we find that some economic factors are significant indicators of food import risk by country. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Current established risk assessment methodologies and tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ionita, Dan; Hartel, Pieter; Pieters, Wolter; Wieringa, Roel

    2013-01-01

    The technology behind information systems evolves at an exponential rate, while at the same time becoming more and more ubiquitous. This brings with it an implicit rise in the average complexity of systems as well as the number of external interactions. In order to allow a proper assessment of the

  14. Audit Risk Assessment in the Light of Current European Regulations

    OpenAIRE

    Ciprian-Costel Munteanu

    2015-01-01

    Recent European reforms on audit regulations have been motivated by efforts to increase audit quality, functioning and performance. We believe the adoption of Directive 2014/56 and Regulation 537/2014 strengthened the role of independent audit and risk committees, which will positively contribute towards audit quality. This paper aims to critically assess the status quo of audit risk assessment in current European standards and regulations, by conducting a theoretical analysis of ...

  15. Transient stability risk assessment of power systems incorporating wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Miao, Lu; Fang, Jiakun; Wen, Jinyu

    2013-01-01

    Large-scale wind farm integration has brought several aspects of challenges to the transient stability of power systems. This paper focuses on the research of the transient stability of power systems incorporating with wind farms by utilizing risk assessment methods. The detailed model of double ....... An investigation has been conducted into an improved 10-generator 39-bus system with a wind farm incorporated to verify the validity and feasibility of the risk assessment method proposed....

  16. A resilience engineering approach to assess major accident risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hollnagel, E.

    2013-01-01

    This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12.......This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12....

  17. Ductal carcinoma in situ - update on risk assessment and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pang, Jia-Min B; Gorringe, Kylie L; Fox, Stephen B

    2016-01-01

    Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) accounts for ~20-25% of breast cancers. While DCIS is not life-threatening, it may progress to invasive carcinoma over time, and treatment intended to prevent invasive progression may itself cause significant morbidity. Accurate risk assessment is therefore necessary to avoid over- or undertreatment of an individual patient. In this review we will outline the evidence for current management of DCIS, discuss approaches to DCIS risk assessment and challenges facing identification of novel DCIS biomarkers.

  18. Status and future of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment in China

    OpenAIRE

    Dong, Q. L.; Barker, G. C.; Gorris, L.G.M.; Tian, M.S.; Song, X. Y.; Malakar, P.K.

    2015-01-01

    Since the implementation of the Food Safety Law of the People's Republic of China in 2009 use of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) has increased. QMRA is used to assess the risk posed to consumers by pathogenic bacteria which cause the majority of foodborne outbreaks in China. This review analyses the progress of QMRA research in China from 2000 to 2013 and discusses 3 possible improvements for the future. These improvements include planning and scoping to initiate QMRA, eff...

  19. Do pressure ulcer risk assessment scales improve clinical practice?

    OpenAIRE

    Jan Kottner; Katrin Balzer

    2010-01-01

    Jan Kottner1, Katrin Balzer21Department of Nursing Science, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Germany; 2Nursing Research Group, Institute for Social Medicine, Universitätsklinikum Schleswig-Holstein, Lübeck, GermanyAbstract: Standardized assessment instruments are deemed important for estimating pressure ulcer risk. Today, more than 40 so-called pressure ulcer risk assessment scales are available but still there is an ongoing debate about their usefulne...

  20. Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    the actual model-forecast error—the 500-hPa root-mean-square error (RMSE) height error. Future work should also consider other forecast metrics such...ARL-TN-0708 ● OCT 2015 US Army Research Laboratory Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale...OCT 2015 US Army Research Laboratory Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale Forecast by Patrick A