WorldWideScience

Sample records for superadditive probability judgment

  1. People's conditional probability judgments follow probability theory (plus noise).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

    2016-09-01

    A common view in current psychology is that people estimate probabilities using various 'heuristics' or rules of thumb that do not follow the normative rules of probability theory. We present a model where people estimate conditional probabilities such as P(A|B) (the probability of A given that B has occurred) by a process that follows standard frequentist probability theory but is subject to random noise. This model accounts for various results from previous studies of conditional probability judgment. This model predicts that people's conditional probability judgments will agree with a series of fundamental identities in probability theory whose form cancels the effect of noise, while deviating from probability theory in other expressions whose form does not allow such cancellation. Two experiments strongly confirm these predictions, with people's estimates on average agreeing with probability theory for the noise-cancelling identities, but deviating from probability theory (in just the way predicted by the model) for other identities. This new model subsumes an earlier model of unconditional or 'direct' probability judgment which explains a number of systematic biases seen in direct probability judgment (Costello & Watts, 2014). This model may thus provide a fully general account of the mechanisms by which people estimate probabilities.

  2. Implications of Cognitive Load for Hypothesis Generation and Probability Judgment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amber M Sprenger

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available We tested the predictions of HyGene (Thomas, Dougherty, Sprenger, & Harbison, 2008 that both divided attention at encoding and judgment should affect degree to which participants’ probability judgments violate the principle of additivity. In two experiments, we showed that divided attention during judgment leads to an increase in subadditivity, suggesting that the comparison process for probability judgments is capacity limited. Contrary to the predictions of HyGene, a third experiment revealed that divided attention during encoding leads to an increase in later probability judgment made under full attention. The effect of divided attention at encoding on judgment was completely mediated by the number of hypotheses participants generated, indicating that limitations in both encoding and recall can cascade into biases in judgments.

  3. Surprisingly rational: probability theory plus noise explains biases in judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

    2014-07-01

    The systematic biases seen in people's probability judgments are typically taken as evidence that people do not use the rules of probability theory when reasoning about probability but instead use heuristics, which sometimes yield reasonable judgments and sometimes yield systematic biases. This view has had a major impact in economics, law, medicine, and other fields; indeed, the idea that people cannot reason with probabilities has become a truism. We present a simple alternative to this view, where people reason about probability according to probability theory but are subject to random variation or noise in the reasoning process. In this account the effect of noise is canceled for some probabilistic expressions. Analyzing data from 2 experiments, we find that, for these expressions, people's probability judgments are strikingly close to those required by probability theory. For other expressions, this account produces systematic deviations in probability estimates. These deviations explain 4 reliable biases in human probabilistic reasoning (conservatism, subadditivity, conjunction, and disjunction fallacies). These results suggest that people's probability judgments embody the rules of probability theory and that biases in those judgments are due to the effects of random noise.

  4. Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel

    1983-01-01

    Judgments under uncertainty are often mediated by intuitive heuristics that are not bound by the conjunction rule of probability. Representativeness and availability heuristics can make a conjunction appear more probable than one of its constituents. Alternative interpretations of this conjunction fallacy are discussed and attempts to combat it…

  5. A Quantum Theoretical Explanation for Probability Judgment Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busemeyer, Jerome R.; Pothos, Emmanuel M.; Franco, Riccardo; Trueblood, Jennifer S.

    2011-01-01

    A quantum probability model is introduced and used to explain human probability judgment errors including the conjunction and disjunction fallacies, averaging effects, unpacking effects, and order effects on inference. On the one hand, quantum theory is similar to other categorization and memory models of cognition in that it relies on vector…

  6. A Quantum Theoretical Explanation for Probability Judgment Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busemeyer, Jerome R.; Pothos, Emmanuel M.; Franco, Riccardo; Trueblood, Jennifer S.

    2011-01-01

    A quantum probability model is introduced and used to explain human probability judgment errors including the conjunction and disjunction fallacies, averaging effects, unpacking effects, and order effects on inference. On the one hand, quantum theory is similar to other categorization and memory models of cognition in that it relies on vector…

  7. Context effects in the measurement of optimism in probability judgment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Otten, W.; van der Pligt, J.

    1996-01-01

    Examined the role of contextual information such as comparison standard on self-other probability judgments regarding the occurrence of negative life events, which tend to be characterized by optimism. In Study 1, 80 undergraduates (mean age 19.5 yrs) completed a questionnaire on preventive

  8. Culture and Probability Judgment Accuracy: The Influence of Holistic Reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lechuga, Julia; Wiebe, John S

    2011-08-01

    A well-established phenomenon in the judgment and decision-making tradition is the overconfidence one places in the amount of knowledge that one possesses. Overconfidence or probability judgment accuracy varies not only individually but also across cultures. However, research efforts to explain cross-cultural variations in the overconfidence phenomenon have seldom been made. In Study 1, the authors compared the probability judgment accuracy of U.S. Americans (N = 108) and Mexican participants (N = 100). In Study 2, they experimentally primed culture by randomly assigning English/Spanish bilingual Mexican Americans (N = 195) to response language. Results of both studies replicated the cross-cultural variation of probability judgment accuracy previously observed in other cultural groups. U.S. Americans displayed less overconfidence when compared to Mexicans. These results were then replicated in bilingual participants, when culture was experimentally manipulated with language priming. Holistic reasoning did not account for the cross-cultural variation of overconfidence. Suggestions for future studies are discussed.

  9. Do Biases in Probability Judgment Matter in Markets? Experimental Evidence

    OpenAIRE

    1987-01-01

    Microeconomic theory typically concerns exchange between individuals or firms in a market setting. To make predictions precise, individuals are usually assumed to use the laws of probability in structuring and revising beliefs about uncertainties. Recent evidence, mostly gathered by psychologists, suggests probability theories might be inadequate descriptive models of individual choice. (See the books edited by Daniel Kahneman et al., 1982a, and by Hal Arkes and ...

  10. Confidence intervals for maximal reliability of probability judgments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K.Y. Lam (Kar Yin); A.J. Koning (Alex); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractSubjective probabilities play an important role in marketing research, for example where individuals rate the likelihood that they will purchase a new to develop product. The tau-equivalent model can describe the joint behaviour of multiple test items measuring the same subjective probab

  11. Surprisingly Rational: Evidence that people follow probability theory when judging probabilities, and that biases in judgment are due to noise

    CERN Document Server

    Costello, Fintan

    2012-01-01

    The systematic biases and errors seen in people's probability judgments are typically taken as evidence that people do not reason about probability using the rules of probability theory. We show the contrary: that these biases are a consequence of people correctly following probability theory, but with random variation or noise affecting the reasoning process. Taking P_E(A) to represent a person's estimate for the probability of some event A, this random variation account predicts that on average P_E(A)+P_E(B)- P_E(A or B)-P_E(A and B)=0 for all pairs of events A,B, just as required by probability theory. Analysing data from an experiment asking people to estimate such probabilities for a number of pairs A,B we find striking confirmation of this prediction.

  12. Dual-Processes in Learning and Judgment: Evidence from the Multiple Cue Probability Learning Paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolison, Jonathan J.; Evans, Jonathan St. B. T.; Dennis, Ian; Walsh, Clare R.

    2012-01-01

    Multiple cue probability learning (MCPL) involves learning to predict a criterion based on a set of novel cues when feedback is provided in response to each judgment made. But to what extent does MCPL require controlled attention and explicit hypothesis testing? The results of two experiments show that this depends on cue polarity. Learning about…

  13. Individual Differences in Numeracy and Cognitive Reflection, with Implications for Biases and Fallacies in Probability Judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberali, Jordana M; Reyna, Valerie F; Furlan, Sarah; Stein, Lilian M; Pardo, Seth T

    2012-10-01

    Despite evidence that individual differences in numeracy affect judgment and decision making, the precise mechanisms underlying how such differences produce biases and fallacies remain unclear. Numeracy scales have been developed without sufficient theoretical grounding, and their relation to other cognitive tasks that assess numerical reasoning, such as the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT), has been debated. In studies conducted in Brazil and in the USA, we administered an objective Numeracy Scale (NS), Subjective Numeracy Scale (SNS), and the CRT to assess whether they measured similar constructs. The Rational-Experiential Inventory, inhibition (go/no-go task), and intelligence were also investigated. By examining factor solutions along with frequent errors for questions that loaded on each factor, we characterized different types of processing captured by different items on these scales. We also tested the predictive power of these factors to account for biases and fallacies in probability judgments. In the first study, 259 Brazilian undergraduates were tested on the conjunction and disjunction fallacies. In the second study, 190 American undergraduates responded to a ratio-bias task. Across the different samples, the results were remarkably similar. The results indicated that the CRT is not just another numeracy scale, that objective and subjective numeracy scales do not measure an identical construct, and that different aspects of numeracy predict different biases and fallacies. Dimensions of numeracy included computational skills such as multiplying, proportional reasoning, mindless or verbatim matching, metacognitive monitoring, and understanding the gist of relative magnitude, consistent with dual-process theories such as fuzzy-trace theory.

  14. Traceable accounts of subjective probability judgments in the IPCC and beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baer, P. G.

    2012-12-01

    One of the major sources of controversy surrounding the reports of the IPCC has been the characterization of uncertainty. Although arguably the IPCC has paid more attention to the process of uncertainty analysis and communication than any comparable assessment body, its efforts to achieve consistency have produced mixed results. In particular, the extensive use of subjective probability assessment has attracted widespread criticism. Statements such as "Average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other 50-year period in the last 500 years" are ubiquitous (one online database lists nearly 3000 such claims), and indeed are the primary way in which its key "findings" are reported. Much attention is drawn to the precise quantitative definition of such statements (e.g., "very likely" means >90% probability, vs. "extremely likely" which means >95% certainty). But there is no process by which the decision regarding the choice of such uncertainty level for a given finding is formally made or reported, and thus they are easily by disputed by anyone, expert or otherwise, who disagrees with the assessment. In the "Uncertainty Guidance Paper" for the Third Assessment Report, Richard Moss and Steve Schneider defined the concept of a "traceable account," which gave exhaustive detail regarding how one ought to provide documentation of such an uncertainty assessment. But the guidance, while appearing straightforward and reasonable, in fact was an unworkable recipe, which would have taken near-infinite time if used for more than a few key results, and would have required a different structuring of the text than the conventional scientific assessment. And even then it would have left a gap when it came to the actual provenance of any such specific judgments, because there simply is no formal step at which individuals turn their knowledge of the evidence on some finding into a probability judgment. The

  15. Procedures for using expert judgment to estimate human-error probabilities in nuclear power plant operations. [PWR; BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seaver, D.A.; Stillwell, W.G.

    1983-03-01

    This report describes and evaluates several procedures for using expert judgment to estimate human-error probabilities (HEPs) in nuclear power plant operations. These HEPs are currently needed for several purposes, particularly for probabilistic risk assessments. Data do not exist for estimating these HEPs, so expert judgment can provide these estimates in a timely manner. Five judgmental procedures are described here: paired comparisons, ranking and rating, direct numerical estimation, indirect numerical estimation and multiattribute utility measurement. These procedures are evaluated in terms of several criteria: quality of judgments, difficulty of data collection, empirical support, acceptability, theoretical justification, and data processing. Situational constraints such as the number of experts available, the number of HEPs to be estimated, the time available, the location of the experts, and the resources available are discussed in regard to their implications for selecting a procedure for use.

  16. Individual Differences in Numeracy and Cognitive Reflection, with Implications for Biases and Fallacies in Probability Judgment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.M. Liberali (Jordana ); V.F. Reyna (Valerie ); S. Furlan (Sarah); L.M. Stein (Lilian ); S.T. Pardo (Seth )

    2012-01-01

    textabstractDespite evidence that individual differences in numeracy affect judgment and decision making, the precise mechanisms underlying how such differences produce biases and fallacies remain unclear. Numeracy scales have been developed without sufficient theoretical grounding, and their relati

  17. Correlation additivity relation is superadditive for separable states

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Zhanjun

    2012-01-01

    We deny with a concrete example the generality of the correlation subadditivity relation conjectured by Modi et al's [Phys. Rev. Lett. {\\bf 104}, 080501 (2010)] for any quantum state and point out that the correlation additivity relation is actually super-additive for separable states. This work indicates that any effort on explicitly proving the conjecture and finding the subadditivity source is unnecessary and fruitless.

  18. On the bargaining set, kernel and core of superadditive games

    OpenAIRE

    TamÂs Solymosi

    1999-01-01

    We prove that for superadditive games a necessary and sufficient condition for the bargaining set to coincide with the core is that the monotonic cover of the excess game induced by a payoff be balanced for each imputation in the bargaining set. We present some new results obtained by verifying this condition for specific classes of games. For N-zero-monotonic games we show that the same condition required at each kernel element is also necessary and sufficient for the kernel to be contained ...

  19. I see into your mind too well: working memory adjusts the probability judgment of others' mental states.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maehara, Yukio; Saito, Satoru

    2011-11-01

    Although an increasing number of studies on adults have indicated that working memory (WM) contributes to the ability to understand the mental states of others (i.e., theory of mind), the detailed mechanism by which WM contributes to successful reasoning has not previously been revealed. This study shows that WM modulates the degree of attribution of one's own knowledge to others' mental states. Participants were asked to read a story twice (Experiment 2) or as carefully as possible (Experiment 3) and to estimate the probability percentages of possible choices for a naive protagonist's behavior. The participants were then asked to maintain either a two- or seven-letter alphabet string (i.e., a light or heavy WM load, respectively) during the probability estimation but not during the story comprehension. The results showed that compared to the participants with a light WM load, those with a heavy WM load estimated a significantly higher probability of the choice indicating that the protagonist would behave on the basis of a fact that the participants knew but the protagonist did not. This result indicates that WM moderates the extent to which adults attribute their own knowledge to others' mental states. The role of WM in theory of mind and in heuristic strategy for making probability judgments was then discussed.

  20. The role of ANS acuity and numeracy for the calibration and the coherence of subjective probability judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winman, Anders; Juslin, Peter; Lindskog, Marcus; Nilsson, Håkan; Kerimi, Neda

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to investigate how numeracy and acuity of the approximate number system (ANS) relate to the calibration and coherence of probability judgments. Based on the literature on number cognition, a first hypothesis was that those with lower numeracy would maintain a less linear use of the probability scale, contributing to overconfidence and nonlinear calibration curves. A second hypothesis was that also poorer acuity of the ANS would be associated with overconfidence and non-linearity. A third hypothesis, in line with dual-systems theory (e.g., Kahneman and Frederick, 2002) was that people higher in numeracy should have better access to the normative probability rules, allowing them to decrease the rate of conjunction fallacies. Data from 213 participants sampled from the Swedish population showed that: (i) in line with the first hypothesis, overconfidence and the linearity of the calibration curves were related to numeracy, where people higher in numeracy were well calibrated with zero overconfidence. (ii) ANS was not associated with overconfidence and non-linearity, disconfirming the second hypothesis. (iii) The rate of conjunction fallacies was slightly, but to a statistically significant degree decreased by numeracy, but still high at all numeracy levels. An unexpected finding was that participants with better ANS acuity gave more realistic estimates of their performance relative to others.

  1. The Role of ANS Acuity and Numeracy for the Calibration and the Coherence of Subjective Probability Judgments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anders eWinman

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the study was to investigate how numeracy and acuity of the approximate number system (ANS relate to the calibration and coherence of probability judgments. Based on the literature on number cognition, a first hypothesis was that those with lower numeracy would maintain a less linear use of the probability scale, contributing to overconfidence and nonlinear calibration curves. A second hypothesis was that also poorer acuity of the ANS would be associated with overconfidence and non-linearity. A third hypothesis, in line with dual-systems theory (e.g., Kahneman & Frederick, 2002 was that people higher in numeracy should have better access to the normative probability rules, allowing them to decrease the rate of conjunction fallacies. Data from 213 participants sampled from the Swedish population showed that: i in line with the first hypothesis, overconfidence and the linearity of the calibration curves were related to numeracy, where people higher in numeracy were well calibrated with zero overconfidence. ii ANS was not associated with overconfidence and non-linearity, disconfirming the second hypothesis. iii The rate of conjunction fallacies was slightly, but to a statistically significant degree decreased by numeracy, but still high at all numeracy levels. An unexpected finding was that participants with better ANS acuity gave more realistic estimates of their performance relative to others.

  2. Quantum memory receiver for superadditive communication using binary coherent states

    CERN Document Server

    Klimek, Aleksandra; Wasilewski, Wojciech; Banaszek, Konrad

    2015-01-01

    We propose a simple architecture based on multimode quantum memories for collective readout of classical information keyed using a pair coherent states, exemplified by the well-known binary phase shift keying format. Such a configuration enables demonstration of the superadditivity effect in classical communication over quantum channels, where the transmission rate becomes enhanced through joint detection applied to multiple channel uses. The proposed scheme relies on the recently introduced idea to prepare Hadamard sequences of input symbols that are mapped by a linear optical transformation onto the pulse position modulation format [Guha, S. {\\em Phys. Rev. Lett.}\\ {\\bf 2011}, {\\em 106}, 240502]. We analyze two versions of readout based on direct detection and an optional Dolinar receiver which implements the minimum-error measurement for individual detection of a binary coherent state alphabet.

  3. Quantum memory receiver for superadditive communication using binary coherent states.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimek, Aleksandra; Jachura, Michał; Wasilewski, Wojciech; Banaszek, Konrad

    2016-11-12

    We propose a simple architecture based on multimode quantum memories for collective readout of classical information keyed using a pair coherent states, exemplified by the well-known binary phase shift keying format. Such a configuration enables demonstration of the superadditivity effect in classical communication over quantum channels, where the transmission rate becomes enhanced through joint detection applied to multiple channel uses. The proposed scheme relies on the recently introduced idea to prepare Hadamard sequences of input symbols that are mapped by a linear optical transformation onto the pulse position modulation format [Guha, S. Phys. Rev. Lett.2011, 106, 240502]. We analyze two versions of readout based on direct detection and an optional Dolinar receiver which implements the minimum-error measurement for individual detection of a binary coherent state alphabet.

  4. probably

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    【说词】1. He can probably tell us the truth.2. Will it rain this afternoong ? Probably【解语】作副词,意为“大概、或许”,表示可能性很大,通常指根据目前情况作出积极推测或判断;

  5. General immunity and superadditivity of two-way Gaussian quantum cryptography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ottaviani, Carlo; Pirandola, Stefano

    2016-03-01

    We consider two-way continuous-variable quantum key distribution, studying its security against general eavesdropping strategies. Assuming the asymptotic limit of many signals exchanged, we prove that two-way Gaussian protocols are immune to coherent attacks. More precisely we show the general superadditivity of the two-way security thresholds, which are proven to be higher than the corresponding one-way counterparts in all cases. We perform the security analysis first reducing the general eavesdropping to a two-mode coherent Gaussian attack, and then showing that the superadditivity is achieved by exploiting the random on/off switching of the two-way quantum communication. This allows the parties to choose the appropriate communication instances to prepare the key, accordingly to the tomography of the quantum channel. The random opening and closing of the circuit represents, in fact, an additional degree of freedom allowing the parties to convert, a posteriori, the two-mode correlations of the eavesdropping into noise. The eavesdropper is assumed to have no access to the on/off switching and, indeed, cannot adapt her attack. We explicitly prove that this mechanism enhances the security performance, no matter if the eavesdropper performs collective or coherent attacks.

  6. General immunity and superadditivity of two-way Gaussian quantum cryptography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ottaviani, Carlo; Pirandola, Stefano

    2016-03-01

    We consider two-way continuous-variable quantum key distribution, studying its security against general eavesdropping strategies. Assuming the asymptotic limit of many signals exchanged, we prove that two-way Gaussian protocols are immune to coherent attacks. More precisely we show the general superadditivity of the two-way security thresholds, which are proven to be higher than the corresponding one-way counterparts in all cases. We perform the security analysis first reducing the general eavesdropping to a two-mode coherent Gaussian attack, and then showing that the superadditivity is achieved by exploiting the random on/off switching of the two-way quantum communication. This allows the parties to choose the appropriate communication instances to prepare the key, accordingly to the tomography of the quantum channel. The random opening and closing of the circuit represents, in fact, an additional degree of freedom allowing the parties to convert, a posteriori, the two-mode correlations of the eavesdropping into noise. The eavesdropper is assumed to have no access to the on/off switching and, indeed, cannot adapt her attack. We explicitly prove that this mechanism enhances the security performance, no matter if the eavesdropper performs collective or coherent attacks.

  7. Comments on quantum probability theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sloman, Steven

    2014-01-01

    Quantum probability theory (QP) is the best formal representation available of the most common form of judgment involving attribute comparison (inside judgment). People are capable, however, of judgments that involve proportions over sets of instances (outside judgment). Here, the theory does not do so well. I discuss the theory both in terms of descriptive adequacy and normative appropriateness.

  8. Judgments of and by Representativeness

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-05-15

    probably agree that John Updike is a more representative American writer than Norman Mailer. rlearly, such a judgment does not have a frequentistic...example, in an early study we presented people with the following description, " John is 27 years old, with an outgoing personality. At college he was an...outstanding athlete but did not show much ability or interest in in- tellectual matters". We found that John was judged to be more likely to be "a gym

  9. Clinical Judgment: An Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Records, Nancy L.; Weiss, Amy L.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reviews the substantial body of research on clinical judgment and decision making in medicine and psychology and urges the incorporation of clinical judgment into the speech-language pathology field. The accuracy of clinical judgment, methods of its study, and suggestions for incorporating it into professional training are considered.…

  10. Judgments of brand similarity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijmolt, THA; Wedel, M; Pieters, RGM; DeSarbo, WS

    This paper provides empirical insight into the way consumers make pairwise similarity judgments between brands, and how familiarity with the brands, serial position of the pair in a sequence, and the presentation format affect these judgments. Within the similarity judgment process both the

  11. Marking as Judgment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Val

    2012-01-01

    An aspect of assessment which has received little attention compared with perennial concerns, such as standards or reliability, is the role of judgment in marking. This paper explores marking as an act of judgment, paying particular attention to the nature of judgment and the processes involved. It brings together studies which have explored…

  12. Marking as Judgment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Val

    2012-01-01

    An aspect of assessment which has received little attention compared with perennial concerns, such as standards or reliability, is the role of judgment in marking. This paper explores marking as an act of judgment, paying particular attention to the nature of judgment and the processes involved. It brings together studies which have explored…

  13. Judgments of brand similarity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijmolt, THA; Wedel, M; Pieters, RGM; DeSarbo, WS

    1998-01-01

    This paper provides empirical insight into the way consumers make pairwise similarity judgments between brands, and how familiarity with the brands, serial position of the pair in a sequence, and the presentation format affect these judgments. Within the similarity judgment process both the formatio

  14. Receptivity and judgment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Nedelsky

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Both judgment and receptivity are important to optimal politics, and both are important to each other. In making this argument, I use an Arendtian conception of judgment and take mindfulness as an example of receptivity. I argue that receptivity offers a needed dimension to addressing the puzzles of what makes Arendtian judgment possible, and that judgment provides a necessary complement to receptivity for action in the world. Exploring this complementary relation between judgment and receptivity also reveals a surprising similarity between what each offers to the practice of politics, in particular to freedom and the possibility of transformation. At the same time, I argue, these important contributions to politics are best understood and realized if judgment and receptivity are thought of as distinct forms of relating to the world.

  15. Social judgments from faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todorov, Alexander; Mende-Siedlecki, Peter; Dotsch, Ron

    2013-06-01

    People make rapid and consequential social judgments from minimal (non-emotional) facial cues. There has been rapid progress in identifying the perceptual basis of these judgments using data-driven, computational models. In contrast, our understanding of the neural underpinnings of these judgments is rather limited. Meta-analyses of neuroimaging studies find a wide range of seemingly inconsistent responses in the amygdala that co-vary with social judgments from faces. Guided by computational models of social judgments, these responses can be accounted by positing that the amygdala (and posterior face selective regions) tracks face typicality. Atypical faces, whether positively or negatively evaluated, elicit stronger responses in the amygdala. We conclude with the promise of data-driven methods for modeling neural responses to social judgments from faces.

  16. Mistaking Judgments of the Agreeable and Judgments of Taste

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis Raven

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available In the Critique of the Power of Judgment, Kant develops a rigorous formulation of aesthetic judgments, in which he makes a sharp distinction between judgments of taste and judgments of the agreeable (both of which are, I claim, types of aesthetic judgments if only to dismiss judgments of the agreeable as worthy objects of study. Kant is primarily concerned with judgments of taste, the main example of which is judging something to be beautiful (whether it be a work of art or a natural object. He asserts that such judgments are subjective, universal, necessary, disinterested, and do not presuppose a purpose. The other type of aesthetic judgment are judgments of the agreeable, “which are the kind of judgment expressed by saying simply that one likes something or finds it pleasing.” These are judgments of what, in Kant’s words, please “the senses in sensation” as opposed to pleasing ourcognition in reflection.

  17. The Hague Judgments Convention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Peter Arnt

    2011-01-01

    The Hague Judgments Convention of 2005 is the first global convention on international jurisdiction and recognition and enforcement of judgments in civil and commercial matters. The author explains the political and legal background of the Convention, its content and certain crucial issues during...

  18. Judgments in Language Testing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    J.Charles Alderson

    2009-01-01

    Language testing is an area linguistics that combines the professional judgment and the nature of the of applied exercise of about language, learning, achievement of language learning with empirical data about students' performances and, by inference, their abilities. This paper addresses the relationship between judgments and empirical data in language testing by reporting on three studies.

  19. Original and Derived Judgment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foss, Kirsten; Foss, Nicolai Juul; Klein, Peter G.

    Recent work links entrepreneurship to the economic theory of firm using the Knightian concept of entrepreneurship as judgment. When judgment is complementary to other as-sets, and these assets or their services are traded in well-functioning markets, it makes sense for entrepreneurs to hire labor...... and own assets. The entrepreneur's role, then, is to arrange or organize the human and capital assets under his control. We extend this Knightian concept of the firm by developing a theory of delegation under Knightian uncertainty. What we call original judgment belongs exclusively to owners, but owners...... may delegate a wide range of decision rights to subordinates, who exercise derived judgment. We call these employees "proxy-entrepreneurs," and ask how the firm's or-ganizational structure — its formal and informal systems of rewards and punishments, rules for settling disputes and renegotiating...

  20. Clinical Judgment and Affective Disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strohmer, Douglas C.; And Others

    1984-01-01

    Addressed the limitations of previous work on counselor clinical judgment in a study involving 20 counselors who were asked to make a series of judgments. Results suggested the judgment processes of experienced counselors making diagnoses of affective disorders differs depending on the type of judgment. (JAC)

  1. Clinical Judgment and Affective Disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strohmer, Douglas C.; And Others

    1984-01-01

    Addressed the limitations of previous work on counselor clinical judgment in a study involving 20 counselors who were asked to make a series of judgments. Results suggested the judgment processes of experienced counselors making diagnoses of affective disorders differs depending on the type of judgment. (JAC)

  2. Original and Derived Judgment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foss, Kirsten; Foss, Nicolai Juul; Klein, Peter G.

    Recent work links entrepreneurship to the economic theory of firm using the Knightian concept of entrepreneurship as judgment. When judgment is complementary to other as-sets, and these assets or their services are traded in well-functioning markets, it makes sense for entrepreneurs to hire labor...... and own assets. The entrepreneur's role, then, is to arrange or organize the human and capital assets under his control. We extend this Knightian concept of the firm by developing a theory of delegation under Knightian uncertainty. What we call original judgment belongs exclusively to owners, but owners...... agreements, means of evaluating perform-ance, and so on — can be designed to encourage forms of proxy-entrepreneurship that increase firm value while discouraging actions that destroy value. Building on key ideas from the entrepreneurship literature, Austrian economics, and the economic theory of the firm we...

  3. Original and Derived Judgment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foss, Kirsten; Foss, Nicolai Juul; Klein, Peter G.

    2007-01-01

    Recent work links entrepreneurship to the economic theory of the firm, using the concept of entrepreneurship as judgment introduced by Frank Knight. When judgment is complementary to other assets, it makes sense for entrepreneurs to hire labour and to own assets. The entrepreneur's role, then......, is to arrange or organize the human and capital assets under his or her control. We extend this Knightian concept of the firm by developing a theory of delegation under Knightian uncetainty. What we call original judgment belongs exclusively to owners, but owners may delegate a wide range of decision rights...... be designed to encourage forms of proxy entrepreneurship that increase firm value while discouraging actions that destroy value. Building on key ideas from the entrepreneurship literature, Austrian economics and the economic theory of the firm, we develop a framework for analysing the trade-off between...

  4. Clinical Judgments of Depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Douglas N.; And Others

    1986-01-01

    Investigated degree to which judges could simulate Basic Personality Inventory (BPI) responses of a clinically depressed patient group. Judgmental profiles of depressed patients indicated very high reliabilities across information conditions, a high association with actual profiles of clinically depressed patients, and differentiation from other…

  5. Variability of Creativity Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caroff, Xavier; Besancon, Maud

    2008-01-01

    The Consensual Assessment Technique (CAT), developed by Amabile [Amabile, T.M. (1982). "Social psychology of creativity: A consensual assessment technique." "Journal of Personality and Social Psychology," 43, 997-1013], is frequently used to evaluate the creativity of productions. Judgments obtained with CAT are usually reliable and valid.…

  6. Benchmarking Judgmentally Adjusted Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); L.P. de Bruijn (Bert)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractMany publicly available macroeconomic forecasts are judgmentally adjusted model-based forecasts. In practice, usually only a single final forecast is available, and not the underlying econometric model, nor are the size and reason for adjustment known. Hence, the relative weights given

  7. Benchmarking judgmentally adjusted forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); L.P. de Bruijn (Bert)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstractMany publicly available macroeconomic forecasts are judgmentally-adjusted model-based forecasts. In practice usually only a single final forecast is available, and not the underlying econometric model, nor are the size and reason for adjustment known. Hence, the relative weights

  8. Benchmarking judgmentally adjusted forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); L.P. de Bruijn (Bert)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstractMany publicly available macroeconomic forecasts are judgmentally-adjusted model-based forecasts. In practice usually only a single final forecast is available, and not the underlying econometric model, nor are the size and reason for adjustment known. Hence, the relative weights give

  9. Calibrating Legal Judgments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frederick Schauer

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective to study the notion and essence of legal judgments calibration the possibilities of using it in the lawenforcement activity to explore the expenses and advantages of using it. Methods dialectic approach to the cognition of social phenomena which enables to analyze them in historical development and functioning in the context of the integrity of objective and subjective factors it determined the choice of the following research methods formallegal comparative legal sociological methods of cognitive psychology and philosophy. Results In ordinary life people who assess other peoplersaquos judgments typically take into account the other judgments of those they are assessing in order to calibrate the judgment presently being assessed. The restaurant and hotel rating website TripAdvisor is exemplary because it facilitates calibration by providing access to a raterrsaquos previous ratings. Such information allows a user to see whether a particular rating comes from a rater who is enthusiastic about every place she patronizes or instead from someone who is incessantly hard to please. And even when less systematized as in assessing a letter of recommendation or college transcript calibration by recourse to the decisional history of those whose judgments are being assessed is ubiquitous. Yet despite the ubiquity and utility of such calibration the legal system seems perversely to reject it. Appellate courts do not openly adjust their standard of review based on the previous judgments of the judge whose decision they are reviewing nor do judges in reviewing legislative or administrative decisions magistrates in evaluating search warrant representations or jurors in assessing witness perception. In most legal domains calibration by reference to the prior decisions of the reviewee is invisible either because it does not exist or because reviewing bodies are unwilling to admit using what they in fact know and employ. Scientific novelty for the first

  10. Judgments about Judgments: The Dissociation of Consideration Price and Transaction Commitment Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janiszewski, Chris; Lichtenstein, Donald R.; Belyavsky, Julia

    2008-01-01

    There are many contexts in which people make judgments about prior judgments. For example, Internet shopping bots (e.g., NexTag.com) allow consumers to search for products and, if the price is too high, list a price at which they would consider making the purchase (i.e., base judgment). If the price drops to this level, the vendor generates an…

  11. Clinical versus actuarial judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawes, R M; Faust, D; Meehl, P E

    1989-03-31

    Professionals are frequently consulted to diagnose and predict human behavior; optimal treatment and planning often hinge on the consultant's judgmental accuracy. The consultant may rely on one of two contrasting approaches to decision-making--the clinical and actuarial methods. Research comparing these two approaches shows the actuarial method to be superior. Factors underlying the greater accuracy of actuarial methods, sources of resistance to the scientific findings, and the benefits of increased reliance on actuarial approaches are discussed.

  12. Instruction in Information Structuring Improves Bayesian Judgment in Intelligence Analysts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David R. Mandel

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available An experiment was conducted to test the effectiveness of brief instruction in information structuring (i.e., representing and integrating information for improving the coherence of probability judgments and binary choices among intelligence analysts. Forty-three analysts were presented with comparable sets of Bayesian judgment problems before and immediately after instruction. After instruction, analysts’ probability judgments were more coherent (i.e., more additive and compliant with Bayes theorem. Instruction also improved the coherence of binary choices regarding category membership: after instruction, subjects were more likely to invariably choose the category to which they assigned the higher probability of a target’s membership. The research provides a rare example of evidence-based validation of effectiveness in instruction to improve the statistical assessment skills of intelligence analysts. Such instruction could also be used to improve the assessment quality of other types of experts who are required to integrate statistical information or make probabilistic assessments.

  13. Inhibitors of the arachidonic acid pathway and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor ligands have superadditive effects on lung cancer growth inhibition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avis, Ingalill; Martínez, Alfredo; Tauler, Jordi; Zudaire, Enrique; Mayburd, Anatoly; Abu-Ghazaleh, Raed; Ondrey, Frank; Mulshine, James L

    2005-05-15

    Arachidonic acid (AA) metabolizing enzymes and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPARs) have been shown to regulate the growth of epithelial cells. We have previously reported that exposure to the 5-lipoxygenase activating protein-directed inhibitor MK886 but not the cyclooxygenase inhibitor, indomethacin, reduced growth, increased apoptosis, and up-regulated PPARalpha and gamma expression in breast cancer cell lines. In the present study, we explore approaches to maximizing the proapoptotic effects of PPARgamma on lung cancer cell lines. Non-small-cell cancer cell line A549 revealed dose-dependent PPARgamma reporter activity after treatment with MK886. The addition of indomethacin in combination with MK886 further increases reporter activity. We also show increased growth inhibition and up-regulation of apoptosis after exposure to MK886 alone, or in combination with indomethacin and the PPAR ligand, 15-deoxy-Delta12,14-prostaglandin J2 compared with single drug exposures on the adenocarcinoma cell line A549 and small-cell cancer cell lines H345, N417, and H510. Real-time PCR analyses showed increased PPAR mRNA and retinoid X receptor (RXR)alpha mRNA expression after exposure to MK886 and indomethacin in a time-dependent fashion. The results suggest that the principal proapoptotic effect of these drugs may be mediated through the known antiproliferative effects of the PPARgamma-RXR interaction. We therefore explored a three-drug approach to attempt to maximize this effect. The combination of low-dose MK886, ciglitazone, and 13-cis-retinoic acid interacted at least in a superadditive fashion to inhibit the growth of lung cancer cell lines A549 and H1299, suggesting that targeting PPARgamma and AA action is a promising approach to lung cancer growth with a favorable therapeutic index.

  14. Disgust as Embodied Moral Judgment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnall, Simone; Haidt, Jonathan; Clore, Gerald L.; Jordan, Alexander H.

    2008-01-01

    How, and for whom, does disgust influence moral judgment? In 4 experiments participants made moral judgments while experiencing extraneous feelings of disgust. Disgust was induced in Experiment 1 by exposure to a bad smell, in Experiment 2 by working in a disgusting room, in Experiment 3 by recalling a physically disgusting experience, and in Experiment 4 through a video induction. In each case, the results showed that disgust can increase the severity of moral judgments relative to controls. Experiment 4 found that disgust had a different effect on moral judgment than did sadness. In addition, Experiments 2-4 showed that the role of disgust in severity of moral judgments depends on participants’ sensitivity to their own bodily sensations. Taken together, these data indicate the importance - and specificity - of gut feelings in moral judgments. PMID:18505801

  15. Clinical judgment and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garb, Howard N

    2005-01-01

    When clinical psychologists make judgments, are they likely to be correct or incorrect? The following topics are reviewed: (a) methodological advances in evaluating the validity of descriptions of personality and psychopathology, (b) recent findings on the cognitive processes of clinicians, and (c) the validity of judgments and utility of decisions made by mental health professionals. Results from research on clinical judgment and decision making and their relationship to conflicts within the field of clinical psychology are discussed.

  16. Predication and judgment in Aquinas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raul Landim Filho

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article, I present an interpretation of Thomas Aquinas's theory of judgment (statement, examining semantic, epistemological and ontological aspects of this theory. Elements of judgment such as concepts, phantasms, predication (combination and division, reflection, affirmation, truth and falsity are explained. The article shows that this interpretation of Aquinas's theory of judgment may contribute to clarify fundamental distinctions (such as the distinctions between being, essence and existence of Aquinas's metaphysics.

  17. Associative processes in intuitive judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morewedge, Carey K; Kahneman, Daniel

    2010-10-01

    Dual-system models of reasoning attribute errors of judgment to two failures: the automatic operations of a 'System 1' generate a faulty intuition, which the controlled operations of a 'System 2' fail to detect and correct. We identify System 1 with the automatic operations of associative memory and draw on research in the priming paradigm to describe how it operates. We explain how three features of associative memory--associative coherence, attribute substitution and processing fluency--give rise to major biases of intuitive judgment. Our article highlights both the ability of System 1 to create complex and skilled judgments and the role of the system as a source of judgment errors.

  18. Quantum probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gudder, Stanley P

    2014-01-01

    Quantum probability is a subtle blend of quantum mechanics and classical probability theory. Its important ideas can be traced to the pioneering work of Richard Feynman in his path integral formalism.Only recently have the concept and ideas of quantum probability been presented in a rigorous axiomatic framework, and this book provides a coherent and comprehensive exposition of this approach. It gives a unified treatment of operational statistics, generalized measure theory and the path integral formalism that can only be found in scattered research articles.The first two chapters survey the ne

  19. Ruin probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg

    The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...

  20. Ignition Probability

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — USFS, State Forestry, BLM, and DOI fire occurrence point locations from 1987 to 2008 were combined and converted into a fire occurrence probability or density grid...

  1. Probability-1

    CERN Document Server

    Shiryaev, Albert N

    2016-01-01

    This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.

  2. Improving moral judgments: philosophical considerations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kalis, A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304823244

    2010-01-01

    In contemporary moral psychology, an often-heard claim is that knowing how we make moral judgments can help us make better moral judgments. Discussions about moral development and improvement are often framed in terms of the question of which mental processes have a better chance of leading to good

  3. Modeling Rehabilitation Counselor Clinical Judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strohmer, Douglas C.; Leierer, Stephen J.

    2000-01-01

    Evaluate three proposed models of the rehabilitation counselor judgment process. Counselors made multiple judgments about clients whose information systematically varied across three dimensions. These data were then analyzed using path analytic techniques to determine which of the models was the best description of the process rehabilitation…

  4. Moral judgment in episodic amnesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craver, Carl F; Keven, Nazim; Kwan, Donna; Kurczek, Jake; Duff, Melissa C; Rosenbaum, R Shayna

    2016-08-01

    To investigate the role of episodic thought about the past and future in moral judgment, we administered a well-established moral judgment battery to individuals with hippocampal damage and deficits in episodic thought (insert Greene et al. 2001). Healthy controls select deontological answers in high-conflict moral scenarios more frequently when they vividly imagine themselves in the scenarios than when they imagine scenarios abstractly, at some personal remove. If this bias is mediated by episodic thought, individuals with deficits in episodic thought should not exhibit this effect. We report that individuals with deficits in episodic memory and future thought make moral judgments and exhibit the biasing effect of vivid, personal imaginings on moral judgment. These results strongly suggest that the biasing effect of vivid personal imagining on moral judgment is not due to episodic thought about the past and future. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Lexicographic Probability, Conditional Probability, and Nonstandard Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-11-11

    the following conditions: CP1. µ(U |U) = 1 if U ∈ F ′. CP2 . µ(V1 ∪ V2 |U) = µ(V1 |U) + µ(V2 |U) if V1 ∩ V2 = ∅, U ∈ F ′, and V1, V2 ∈ F . CP3. µ(V |U...µ(V |X)× µ(X |U) if V ⊆ X ⊆ U , U,X ∈ F ′, V ∈ F . Note that it follows from CP1 and CP2 that µ(· |U) is a probability measure on (W,F) (and, in... CP2 hold. This is easily seen to determine µ. Moreover, µ vaciously satisfies CP3, since there do not exist distinct sets U and X in F ′ such that U

  6. A Quantum Probability Model of Causal Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trueblood, Jennifer S.; Busemeyer, Jerome R.

    2012-01-01

    People can often outperform statistical methods and machine learning algorithms in situations that involve making inferences about the relationship between causes and effects. While people are remarkably good at causal reasoning in many situations, there are several instances where they deviate from expected responses. This paper examines three situations where judgments related to causal inference problems produce unexpected results and describes a quantum inference model based on the axiomatic principles of quantum probability theory that can explain these effects. Two of the three phenomena arise from the comparison of predictive judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of an effect given a cause) with diagnostic judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of a cause given an effect). The third phenomenon is a new finding examining order effects in predictive causal judgments. The quantum inference model uses the notion of incompatibility among different causes to account for all three phenomena. Psychologically, the model assumes that individuals adopt different points of view when thinking about different causes. The model provides good fits to the data and offers a coherent account for all three causal reasoning effects thus proving to be a viable new candidate for modeling human judgment. PMID:22593747

  7. A quantum probability model of causal reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trueblood, Jennifer S; Busemeyer, Jerome R

    2012-01-01

    People can often outperform statistical methods and machine learning algorithms in situations that involve making inferences about the relationship between causes and effects. While people are remarkably good at causal reasoning in many situations, there are several instances where they deviate from expected responses. This paper examines three situations where judgments related to causal inference problems produce unexpected results and describes a quantum inference model based on the axiomatic principles of quantum probability theory that can explain these effects. Two of the three phenomena arise from the comparison of predictive judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of an effect given a cause) with diagnostic judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of a cause given an effect). The third phenomenon is a new finding examining order effects in predictive causal judgments. The quantum inference model uses the notion of incompatibility among different causes to account for all three phenomena. Psychologically, the model assumes that individuals adopt different points of view when thinking about different causes. The model provides good fits to the data and offers a coherent account for all three causal reasoning effects thus proving to be a viable new candidate for modeling human judgment.

  8. A quantum probability model of causal reasoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer S Trueblood

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available People can often outperform statistical methods and machine learning algorithms in situations that involve making inferences about the relationship between causes and effects. While people are remarkably good at causal reasoning in many situations, there are several instances where they deviate from expected responses. This paper examines three situations where judgments related to causal inference problems produce unexpected results and describes a quantum inference model based on the axiomatic principles of quantum probability theory that can explain these effects. Two of the three phenomena arise from the comparison of predictive judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of an effect given a cause with diagnostic judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of a cause given an effect. The third phenomenon is a new finding examining order effects in predictive causal judgments. The quantum inference model uses the notion of incompatibility among different causes to account for all three phenomena. Psychologically, the model assumes that individuals adopt different points of view when thinking about different causes. The model provides good fits to the data and offers a coherent account for all three causal reasoning effects thus proving to be a viable new candidate for modeling human judgment.

  9. Judging the Probability of Hypotheses Versus the Impact of Evidence: Which Form of Inductive Inference Is More Accurate and Time-Consistent?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tentori, Katya; Chater, Nick; Crupi, Vincenzo

    2016-04-01

    Inductive reasoning requires exploiting links between evidence and hypotheses. This can be done focusing either on the posterior probability of the hypothesis when updated on the new evidence or on the impact of the new evidence on the credibility of the hypothesis. But are these two cognitive representations equally reliable? This study investigates this question by comparing probability and impact judgments on the same experimental materials. The results indicate that impact judgments are more consistent in time and more accurate than probability judgments. Impact judgments also predict the direction of errors in probability judgments. These findings suggest that human inductive reasoning relies more on estimating evidential impact than on posterior probability.

  10. Risk Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

    Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... of insurance companies facing losses due to natural disasters, banks seeking protection against huge losses, failures in expensive and sophisticated systems or loss of valuable information in electronic systems. The main difficulty when dealing with this kind of problems is the unavailability of a closed...

  11. Probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    S Varadhan, S R

    2001-01-01

    This volume presents topics in probability theory covered during a first-year graduate course given at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences. The necessary background material in measure theory is developed, including the standard topics, such as extension theorem, construction of measures, integration, product spaces, Radon-Nikodym theorem, and conditional expectation. In the first part of the book, characteristic functions are introduced, followed by the study of weak convergence of probability distributions. Then both the weak and strong limit theorems for sums of independent rando

  12. Cloze, Maze, and Teacher Judgment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pikulski, John J.; Pikulski, Edna C.

    1977-01-01

    When cloze and maze scores are compared with teacher judgment in establishing the independent, instructional, and fustration levels of students, both techniques tend to overestimate a child's ability. (HOD)

  13. Structural flexibility of moral judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krebs, D L; Denton, K L; Vermeulen, S C; Carpendale, J I; Bush, A

    1991-12-01

    One of the central assumptions of Kohlberg's theory of moral development--that moral judgment is organized in structures of the whole--was examined. Thirty men and 30 women were given 2 dilemmas from Kohlberg's Moral Judgment Interview, a 3rd involving prosocial behavior, and a 4th involving impaired driving. Half the Ss responded to the prosocial and impaired-driving dilemmas from the perspective of a hypothetical character, and half responded from the perspective of the self. No sex or perspective differences in moral maturity were observed. Ss scored highest in moral maturity on Kohlberg's dilemmas, intermediate on the prosocial dilemma, and lowest on the impaired-driving dilemma. In partial support of Kohlberg's contention that his test assesses moral competence, there was a negative linear relationship between scores on his test and the proportion of Stage 2 judgments on the 2 other dilemmas. An interactional model of moral judgment is advanced.

  14. Assessing volcanic hazard at Yucca Mountain using expert judgment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coppersmith, K.J.; Perman, R.C. [Geomatrix Consultants, Inc., San Francisco, CA (United States); Nesbit, J. [Department of Energy, Las Vegas, NV (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-01

    A study to assess the probability of a future volcanic event disrupting the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, termed the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) project, is being sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). This assessment, which is focused on the volcanic hazard at the site, expressed as the probability of disruption of the potential repository, will eventually provide input to an assessment of volcanic risk, which expresses the probability of radionuclide release due to volcanic disruption. To ensure that a wide range of approaches are considered in the hazard analysis, judgments of members of an expert panel will be elicited. The results of the individual elicitations will be combined to develop an integrated assessment of the volcanic hazard that reflects the diversity of scientific interpretations. This paper outlines the hazard model components and the procedures for eliciting expert judgments.

  15. Research on Judgment Aggregation Based on Logic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Dai

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Preference aggregation and judgment aggregation are two basic research models of group decision making. And preference aggregation has been deeply studied in social choice theory. However, researches of social choice theory gradually focus on judgment aggregation which appears recently. Judgment aggregation focuses on how to aggregate many consistent logical formulas into one, from the perspective of logic. We try to start with judgment aggregation model based on logic and then explore different solutions to problem of judgment aggregation.

  16. Music-evoked incidental happiness modulates probability weighting during risky lottery choices

    OpenAIRE

    Schulreich, Stefan; Heussen, Yana G.; Gerhardt, Holger; Peter N.C. Mohr; Binkofski, Ferdinand C.; Koelsch, Stefan; Heekeren, Hauke R.

    2014-01-01

    We often make decisions with uncertain consequences. The outcomes of the choices we make are usually not perfectly predictable but probabilistic, and the probabilities can be known or unknown. Probability judgments, i.e., the assessment of unknown probabilities, can be influenced by evoked emotional states. This suggests that also the weighting of known probabilities in decision making under risk might be influenced by incidental emotions, i.e., emotions unrelated to the judgments and decisio...

  17. Physician judgment in clinical settings: methodological influences and cognitive performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, N V

    1993-07-01

    Understanding the quality of physicians' intuitive judgments is essential in determining the appropriate use of their judgments in medical decision-making (vis-a-vis analytical or actuarial approaches). As part of this process, the quality of physicians' predictions must be assessed because prediction is fundamental to common clinical tasks: determining diagnosis, prognosis, and therapy; establishing monitoring intervals; performing screening and preventive maneuvers. Critical evaluation of predictive capabilities requires an assessment of the components of the prediction process: the data available for prediction, the method used for prediction, and the accuracy of prediction. Although variation in and uncertainty about the underlying data elements are often acknowledged as a source of inaccurate predictions, prediction also can be confounded by both methodological and cognitive limitations. During the past two decades, numerous factors have been recognized that may bias test characteristics (sensitivity and specificity). These same factors may also produce bias in intuitive judgments. The use of cognitive processes to simplify judgment tasks (e.g., the availability and representativeness heuristics) and the presence of certain biases in the judgment process (e.g., ego, regret) may present obstacles to accurate estimation of probabilities by physicians. Limitations on the intuitive use of information (cognitive biases) have been demonstrated in both medical and nonmedical decision-making settings. Recent studies have led to a deepening understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of intuitive and analytical approaches to decision making. Here, many aspects of the basis for this understanding are reviewed.

  18. The curious anomaly of skewed judgment distributions and systematic error in the wisdom of crowds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulrik W Nash

    Full Text Available Judgment distributions are often skewed and we know little about why. This paper explains the phenomenon of skewed judgment distributions by introducing the augmented quincunx (AQ model of sequential and probabilistic cue categorization by neurons of judges. In the process of developing inferences about true values, when neurons categorize cues better than chance, and when the particular true value is extreme compared to what is typical and anchored upon, then populations of judges form skewed judgment distributions with high probability. Moreover, the collective error made by these people can be inferred from how skewed their judgment distributions are, and in what direction they tilt. This implies not just that judgment distributions are shaped by cues, but that judgment distributions are cues themselves for the wisdom of crowds. The AQ model also predicts that judgment variance correlates positively with collective error, thereby challenging what is commonly believed about how diversity and collective intelligence relate. Data from 3053 judgment surveys about US macroeconomic variables obtained from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and the Wall Street Journal provide strong support, and implications are discussed with reference to three central ideas on collective intelligence, these being Galton's conjecture on the distribution of judgments, Muth's rational expectations hypothesis, and Page's diversity prediction theorem.

  19. Feminist Judgments as Teaching Resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosemary Hunter

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses feminist judgments as a specific vehicle for teaching students to think critically about law. The analysis of appellate judgments forms a central plank of Anglo-Commonwealth and US jurisprudence and legal education. While academic scholarship generally offers various forms of commentary on decided cases, feminist judgment-writing projects have recently embarked on a new form of critical scholarship. Rather than critiquing judgments from a feminist perspective in academic essays, the participants in these projects have set out instead to write alternative judgments, as if they had been one of the judges sitting on the court at the time. After introducing the UK Feminist Judgments Project and describing what is ‘different’ about the judgments it has produced, the paper explains some of the ways in which these judgments have been used in UK law schools to teach critical thinking. The paper finally speculates on the potential production and application of feminist judgments or their equivalents beyond the common law context. Este artículo analiza las sentencias feministas como un vehículo específico para enseñar a los estudiantes a analizar el derecho desde un punto de vista crítico. El análisis de las sentencias de apelación constituye un elemento central de la jurisprudencia y la enseñanza del derecho en los países angloamericanos y de la Commonwealth. Mientras la comunidad académica ofrece generalmente diversas formas de comentario de casos resueltos, los proyectos de literatura judicial feminista se han embarcado recientemente en un nuevo sistema de crítica académica. En lugar de redactar ensayos académicos criticando las sentencias judiciales desde una perspectiva feminista, los participantes de estos proyectos se han propuesto redactar sentencias alternativas, como si hubieran sido uno de los jueces del tribunal en cuestión. Después de presentar el Proyecto de Sentencias Feministas del Reino Unido y

  20. Do physician outcome judgments and judgment biases contribute to inappropriate use of treatments? Study protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lott Alison

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There are many examples of physicians using treatments inappropriately, despite clear evidence about the circumstances under which the benefits of such treatments outweigh their harms. When such over- or under- use of treatments occurs for common diseases, the burden to the healthcare system and risks to patients can be substantial. We propose that a major contributor to inappropriate treatment may be how clinicians judge the likelihood of important treatment outcomes, and how these judgments influence their treatment decisions. The current study will examine the role of judged outcome probabilities and other cognitive factors in the context of two clinical treatment decisions: 1 prescription of antibiotics for sore throat, where we hypothesize overestimation of benefit and underestimation of harm leads to over-prescription of antibiotics; and 2 initiation of anticoagulation for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF, where we hypothesize that underestimation of benefit and overestimation of harm leads to under-prescription of warfarin. Methods For each of the two conditions, we will administer surveys of two types (Type 1 and Type 2 to different samples of Canadian physicians. The primary goal of the Type 1 survey is to assess physicians' perceived outcome probabilities (both good and bad outcomes for the target treatment. Type 1 surveys will assess judged outcome probabilities in the context of a representative patient, and include questions about how physicians currently treat such cases, the recollection of rare or vivid outcomes, as well as practice and demographic details. The primary goal of the Type 2 surveys is to measure the specific factors that drive individual clinical judgments and treatment decisions, using a 'clinical judgment analysis' or 'lens modeling' approach. This survey will manipulate eight clinical variables across a series of sixteen realistic case vignettes. Based on the survey responses, we will be

  1. Wording effects in moral judgments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ross E. O'Hara

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available As the study of moral judgments grows, it becomes imperative to compare results across studies in order to create unified theories within the field. These efforts are potentially undermined, however, by variations in wording used by different researchers. The current study sought to determine whether, when, and how variations in wording influence moral judgments. Online participants responded to 15 different moral vignettes (e.g., the trolley problem using 1 of 4 adjectives: ``wrong'', ``inappropriate'', ``forbidden'', or ``blameworthy''. For half of the sample, these adjectives were preceded by the adverb ``morally''. Results indicated that people were more apt to judge an act as wrong or inappropriate than forbidden or blameworthy, and that disgusting acts were rated as more acceptable when ``morally'' was included. Although some wording differences emerged, effects sizes were small and suggest that studies of moral judgment with different wordings can legitimately be compared.

  2. Judgmental Forecasting of Operational Capabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallin, Carina Antonia; Tveterås, Sigbjørn; Andersen, Torben Juul

    This paper explores a new judgmental forecasting indicator, the Employee Sensed Operational Capabilities (ESOC). The purpose of the ESOC is to establish a practical prediction tool that can provide early signals about changes in financial performance by gauging frontline employees’ sensing...

  3. Experiential Social Justice Judgment Processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maas, M.

    2008-01-01

    Social justice can be thought of as an idea that exists within the minds of individuals and that concerns issues like what is right and wrong, what ought to be or not to be, and what is fair or unfair. This subjective quality of the justice judgment process makes it rather unpredictable how people w

  4. Media Manipulation of Adolescents' Personal Level Judgments Regarding Consequences of Smokeless Tobacco Use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sussman, Steve; And Others

    1989-01-01

    Showed videotapes designed to affect personal level judgments of concern and risk in context of smokeless tobacco use to 388 tenth graders, manipulating either message convincingness or perceived probability of consequences portrayed in message. Results suggest that media manipulation of probability of consequences would be more effective than…

  5. Improving Accuracy in a Clinical Judgmental Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strasburger, Erich L.; Jackson, Douglas N.

    1977-01-01

    This study was designed to identify kinds of information leading to increased accuracy of clinical judgments. Results confirm the feasibility of increasing accuracy in meaningful clinical judgment tasks through practice and of studying clinical judgment by using construct-oriented personality scales to which targets bear a substantive…

  6. 5 CFR 919.920 - Civil judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Civil judgment. 919.920 Section 919.920 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT (CONTINUED) CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS (CONTINUED) GOVERNMENTWIDE DEBARMENT AND SUSPENSION (NONPROCUREMENT) Definitions § 919.920 Civil judgment. Civil judgment...

  7. 22 CFR 1006.920 - Civil judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... creates a civil liability for the complained of wrongful acts, or a final determination of liability under... 22 Foreign Relations 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 true Civil judgment. 1006.920 Section 1006.920...) Definitions § 1006.920 Civil judgment. Civil judgment means the disposition of a civil action by any court...

  8. 34 CFR 85.920 - Civil judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... creates a civil liability for the complained of wrongful acts, or a final determination of liability under... 34 Education 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Civil judgment. 85.920 Section 85.920 Education Office...) Definitions § 85.920 Civil judgment. Civil judgment means the disposition of a civil action by any court...

  9. 21 CFR 1404.920 - Civil judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... creates a civil liability for the complained of wrongful acts, or a final determination of liability under... 21 Food and Drugs 9 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Civil judgment. 1404.920 Section 1404.920 Food and...) Definitions § 1404.920 Civil judgment. Civil judgment means the disposition of a civil action by any court...

  10. 22 CFR 1508.920 - Civil judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... creates a civil liability for the complained of wrongful acts, or a final determination of liability under... 22 Foreign Relations 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 true Civil judgment. 1508.920 Section 1508.920...) Definitions § 1508.920 Civil judgment. Civil judgment means the disposition of a civil action by any court...

  11. 22 CFR 208.920 - Civil judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... creates a civil liability for the complained of wrongful acts, or a final determination of liability under... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Civil judgment. 208.920 Section 208.920 Foreign...) Definitions § 208.920 Civil judgment. Civil judgment means the disposition of a civil action by any court...

  12. 2 CFR 180.915 - Civil judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... creates a civil liability for the complained of wrongful acts, or a final determination of liability under... 2 Grants and Agreements 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Civil judgment. 180.915 Section 180.915... § 180.915 Civil judgment. Civil judgment means the disposition of a civil action by any court...

  13. Moral Motivation, Moral Judgment, and Antisocial Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Jeff; Bock, Tonia; Narvaez, Darcia

    2013-01-01

    The link between judgment and action is weak throughout psychology, including moral psychology. That is, people often do not act in accordance with their reasoning. Might moral judgment development be better viewed as a capacity that inhibits "immoral" behavior? One model that helps account for the moral judgment-action gap is Rest's…

  14. Engaging Students in Social Judgment Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallard, Jessica

    2010-01-01

    Social Judgment Theory is a way to explain when persuasive messages are most likely to succeed and how people make judgments about them. This theory is often covered in communication theory and persuasion courses, but is also applicable when discussing persuasion in basic speech and introductory communication courses. Social Judgment Theory…

  15. Brain correlates of aesthetic judgment of beauty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobsen, Thomas; Schubotz, Ricarda I; Höfel, Lea; Cramon, D Yves V

    2006-01-01

    Functional MRI was used to investigate the neural correlates of aesthetic judgments of beauty of geometrical shapes. Participants performed evaluative aesthetic judgments (beautiful or not?) and descriptive symmetry judgments (symmetric or not?) on the same stimulus material. Symmetry was employed because aesthetic judgments are known to be often guided by criteria of symmetry. Novel, abstract graphic patterns were presented to minimize influences of attitudes or memory-related processes and to test effects of stimulus symmetry and complexity. Behavioral results confirmed the influence of stimulus symmetry and complexity on aesthetic judgments. Direct contrasts showed specific activations for aesthetic judgments in the frontomedian cortex (BA 9/10), bilateral prefrontal BA 45/47, and posterior cingulate, left temporal pole, and the temporoparietal junction. In contrast, symmetry judgments elicited specific activations in parietal and premotor areas subserving spatial processing. Interestingly, beautiful judgments enhanced BOLD signals not only in the frontomedian cortex, but also in the left intraparietal sulcus of the symmetry network. Moreover, stimulus complexity caused differential effects for each of the two judgment types. Findings indicate aesthetic judgments of beauty to rely on a network partially overlapping with that underlying evaluative judgments on social and moral cues and substantiate the significance of symmetry and complexity for our judgment of beauty.

  16. Evaluating changes in judgmental biases as mechanisms of cognitive-behavioral therapy for social anxiety disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calamaras, Martha R; Tully, Erin C; Tone, Erin B; Price, Matthew; Anderson, Page L

    2015-08-01

    Reductions in judgmental biases concerning the cost and probability of negative social events are presumed to be mechanisms of treatment for SAD. Methodological limitations of extant studies, however, leave open the possibility that, instead of causing symptom relief, reductions in judgmental biases are correlates or consequences of it. The present study evaluated changes in judgmental biases as mechanisms explaining the efficacy of CBT for SAD. Participants were 86 individuals who met DSM-IV-TR criteria for a primary diagnosis of SAD, participated in one of two treatment outcome studies of CBT for SAD, and completed measures of judgmental (i.e., cost and probability) biases and social anxiety at pre-, mid-, and posttreatment. Treated participants had significantly greater reductions in judgmental biases than not-treated participants; pre-to-post changes in cost and probability biases statistically mediated treatment outcome; and probability bias at midtreatment was a significant predictor of treatment outcome, even when modeled with a plausible rival mediator, working alliance. Contrary to hypotheses, cost bias at midtreatment was not a significant predictor of treatment outcome. Results suggest that reduction in probability bias is a mechanism by which CBT for SAD exerts its effects.

  17. Probable Cause: A Decision Making Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-08-01

    draw upon several approaches to the p study of causality; specifically, work in attribution theory (Hider, 1958; Kelley, 1973), methodology (Cook...psychology (Michotte, 1946; Piaget , 1974). From our perspective, much of the difficulty in assessing causality is due to the fact that judgments of...that violate probability and statistical theory . We therefore consider such cases because they highlight the various characteristics of each system

  18. Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming

    OpenAIRE

    Saad, Emad

    2013-01-01

    Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...

  19. Does momentary accessibility influence metacomprehension judgments? The influence of study-judgment lags on accessibility effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Julie M C; Dunlosky, John

    2006-02-01

    In two experiments, we investigated momentary accessibility as a basis for metacomprehension judgments. Momentary accessibility has been cited as a major contributor to these judgments, yet the only previous investigation on the topic used judgments that were delayed a day after study, which have not been used in any other studies in the field and may be necessary for demonstrating accessibility-based effects. As expected, Experiment 1 demonstrated that the time between study and judgments moderates accessibility effects, with the relationship between judgments and access measures being substantially greater for delayed than for immediate judgments. Experiment 2 ruled out a plausible artifactual interpretation for accessibility effects on delayed judgments. In the discussion, we explore why study-judgment lags moderate accessibility effects.

  20. Scaling Qualitative Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Burgin, Mark

    2017-01-01

    There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...

  1. Neural Correlates of Causal Power Judgments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise Dellarosa Cummins

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Causal inference is a fundamental component of cognition and perception. Probabilistic theories of causal judgment (most notably causal Bayes networks derive causal judgments using metrics that integrate contingency information. But human estimates typically diverge from these normative predictions. This is because human causal power judgments are typically strongly influenced by beliefs concerning underlying causal mechanisms, and because of the way knowledge is retrieved from human memory during the judgment process. Neuroimaging studies indicate that the brain distinguishes causal events from mere covariation, and between perceived and inferred causality. Areas involved in error prediction are also activated, implying automatic activation of possible exception cases during causal decision-making.

  2. Victimological aspects of court judgments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bačanović Oliver

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The subject of this paper is the review of the results of the research: „Analysis of judgments form the victimological aspect“ of the Basic court Skopje I in Skopje. It is the first research of it’s kind in the Republic of Macedonia, conducted by the project team of the Faculty of Security in Skopje in the period from January to April 2011. By using the content analysis (for this purpose a special instrument was developed 172 irrevocable court judgment brought in the period 2005-2010 were analyzed, for the following criminal offences: murder, crimes against sexual freedom and sexual morality (sexual assault, severe bodily injuries and insult. The aim of the research was to highlight the victimological dimensions of mentioned criminal offences, while special attention was paid to the role of a victim in a crime, victim‘ s interaction with the perpetrator, individual characteristics of the victim, as well as the characteristics of the time when and the space where the crime occurred.

  3. Judgment Confidence and Judgment Accuracy of Teachers in Judging Self-Concepts of Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Praetorius, Anna-Katharina; Berner, Valerie-Danielle; Zeinz, Horst; Scheunpflug, Annette; Dresel, Markus

    2013-01-01

    Accurate teacher judgments of student characteristics are considered to be important prerequisites for adaptive instruction. A theoretically important condition for putting these judgments into operation is judgment confidence. Using a German sample of 96 teachers and 1,388 students, the authors examined how confident teachers are in their…

  4. Judgment Confidence and Judgment Accuracy of Teachers in Judging Self-Concepts of Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Praetorius, Anna-Katharina; Berner, Valerie-Danielle; Zeinz, Horst; Scheunpflug, Annette; Dresel, Markus

    2013-01-01

    Accurate teacher judgments of student characteristics are considered to be important prerequisites for adaptive instruction. A theoretically important condition for putting these judgments into operation is judgment confidence. Using a German sample of 96 teachers and 1,388 students, the authors examined how confident teachers are in their…

  5. Who makes utilitarian judgments? The influences of emotions on utilitarian judgments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    So Young Choe

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent research has emphasized emotion's role in non-utilitarian judgments, but has not focused much on characteristics of subjects contributing to those judgments. The present article relates utilitarian judgment to individual disposition to experience various emotions. Study 1 first investigated the relationship among state emotions and utilitarian judgment. Diverse emotions were elicited during judgment: guilt, sadness, disgust, empathy, anger, and anxiety, etc. Using psychological scales, Study 2 found that trait emotions predict the extent of utilitarian judgments, especially trait anger, trait disgust, and trait empathy. Unlike previous research that designated emotions only as factors mitigating utilitarian judgment, this research shows that trait anger correlates positively with utilitarian judgment. On the other hand, disgust and empathy correlated negatively. Guilt and shame---though previous research argued that their absence increased utilitarian judgment---appear unrelated to the extent of utilitarian judgment. These results suggest that people's emotional dispositions can affect their judgment. This finding might contribute to untangling the complex mechanisms of utilitarian judgments.

  6. Transparency and Expert Judgment in Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Mikael [Swedish Radiation Protection Authority, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2003-10-01

    An example of expert panel elicitation is mentioned to give some insight in important aspects of the views of the experts, without discussion of the elicited quantity. There are a number of issues such as bias and the discussion between, and rating of, experts, which have not been discussed. It can be seen however, that the structured approach given by the subjective probabilities is an excellent point of reference for further discussion and communication between experts and lay persons. A presentation of a structured approach of the elicitation procedure in itself has potential for further confidence building and transparence in decision-making. In the field of radioactive waste management, or in the nuclear industry as a whole, formal expert judgment elicitation has been used primarily in the US and not in Europe, with a few exceptions such as work carried out at the Delft University of Technology, promoted by professor Cook and others. The author considers the technique valuable in several applications for high-level waste and hopes that the technique will be used in this area.

  7. 32 CFR 1602.13 - Judgmental Classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Judgmental Classification. 1602.13 Section 1602.13 National Defense Other Regulations Relating to National Defense SELECTIVE SERVICE SYSTEM DEFINITIONS § 1602.13 Judgmental Classification. A classification action relating to a registrant's claim...

  8. 40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... CFR PART 191 DISPOSAL REGULATIONS Compliance Certification and Re-certification General Requirements... experts (by name and employer) involved in any expert judgment elicitation processes used to support the... judgment elicitation processes and the reasoning behind those results. Documentation of interviews used to...

  9. Clinical Judgments of Normal Childhood Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoy, Sally Ann

    1976-01-01

    Decisions regarding normality of childhood behaviors are necessary when clinicians attempt to discriminate which children require psychiatric treatment. Elements affecting clinical judgments include the influence of direct observation of the child and the parents' report of the child's behavior. Results show that judgments depended almost entirely…

  10. Adult Metacomprehension: Judgment Processes and Accuracy Constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Qin; Linderholm, Tracy

    2008-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to review and synthesize two interrelated topics in the adult metacomprehension literature: the bases of metacomprehension judgment and the constraints on metacomprehension accuracy. Our review shows that adult readers base their metacomprehension judgments on different types of information, including experiences…

  11. The Truth and Bias Model of Judgment

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Tessa V.; Kenny, David A.

    2011-01-01

    We present a new model for the general study of how the truth and biases affect human judgment. In the truth and bias model, judgments about the world are pulled by 2 primary forces, the truth force and the bias force, and these 2 forces are interrelated. The truth and bias model differentiates force and value, where the force is the strength of…

  12. The Truth and Bias Model of Judgment

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Tessa V.; Kenny, David A.

    2011-01-01

    We present a new model for the general study of how the truth and biases affect human judgment. In the truth and bias model, judgments about the world are pulled by 2 primary forces, the truth force and the bias force, and these 2 forces are interrelated. The truth and bias model differentiates force and value, where the force is the strength of…

  13. Individual Moral Judgment and Cultural Ideologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narvaez, Darcia; Getz, Irene; Rest, James R.; Thoma, Stephen J.

    1999-01-01

    Two studies examined how moral judgment and cultural ideology combine to predict moral thinking in members of a conservative church and a liberal church, and in a secular sample of university undergraduates. Found that a combination of religious ideology, political identity, and moral judgment predicted the church members' opinions on human-rights…

  14. FRAMING EFFECTS ON PHYSICIANS' JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bui, Thanh C; Krieger, Heather A; Blumenthal-Barby, Jennifer S

    2015-10-01

    This study aimed to assess physicians' susceptibility to framing effects in clinical judgment and decision making. A survey was administered online to 159 general internists in the United States. Participants were randomized into two groups, in which clinical scenarios varied in their framings: frequency vs percentage, with cost information vs without, female patient vs male patient, and mortality vs survival. Results showed that physicians' recommendations for patients in hypothetical scenarios were significantly different when the predicted probability of the outcomes was presented in frequency versus percentage form and when it was presented in mortality rate vs survival rate of the same magnitude. Physicians' recommendations were not different for other framing effects.

  15. People's Judgments About Classic Property Law Cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeScioli, Peter; Karpoff, Rachel

    2015-06-01

    People's judgments about property shape how they relate to other people with respect to resources. Property law cases can provide a valuable window into ownership judgments because disputants often use conflicting rules for ownership, offering opportunities to distinguish these basic rules. Here we report a series of ten studies investigating people's judgments about classic property law cases dealing with found objects. The cases address a range of issues, including the relativity of ownership, finder versus landowner rights, object location, objects below- versus above-ground, mislaid versus lost objects, contracts between landowners and finders, and the distinction between public and private space. The results show nuanced patterns in ownership judgments that are not well-explained by previous psychological theories. Also, people's judgments often conflict with court decisions and legal principles. These empirical patterns can be used to generate and test novel hypotheses about the intuitive logic of ownership.

  16. Individual moral judgment and cultural ideologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narvaez, D; Getz, I; Rest, J R; Thoma, S J

    1999-03-01

    Moral judgment cannot be reduced to cultural ideology, or vice versa. But when each construct is measured separately, then combined, the product predicts powerfully to moral thinking. In Study 1, 2 churches (N = 96) were selected for their differences on religious ideology, political identity, and moral judgment. By combining these 3 variables, a multiple correlation of .79 predicted to members' moral thinking (opinions on human rights issues). Study 2 replicated this finding in a secular sample, with the formula established in Study 1 (R = .77). Individual conceptual development in moral judgment and socialization into cultural ideology co-occur, simultaneously and reciprocally, in parallel, and not serially. Individual development in moral judgment provides the epistemological categories for cultural ideology, which in turn influences the course of moral judgment, to produce moral thinking (e.g., opinions about abortion, free speech).

  17. On Probability Leakage

    OpenAIRE

    Briggs, William M.

    2012-01-01

    The probability leakage of model M with respect to evidence E is defined. Probability leakage is a kind of model error. It occurs when M implies that events $y$, which are impossible given E, have positive probability. Leakage does not imply model falsification. Models with probability leakage cannot be calibrated empirically. Regression models, which are ubiquitous in statistical practice, often evince probability leakage.

  18. Judgmental Forecasting of Operational Capabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallin, Carina Antonia; Tveterås, Sigbjørn; Andersen, Torben Juul

    This paper explores a new judgmental forecasting indicator, the Employee Sensed Operational Capabilities (ESOC). The purpose of the ESOC is to establish a practical prediction tool that can provide early signals about changes in financial performance by gauging frontline employees’ sensing...... can predict financial performance. Monthly data were collected from frontline employees in three different companies during an 18-month period, and the initial results indicate that the ESOChas predictive power....... of changes in the firm’s operational capabilities. We present the first stage of the development of ESOC by applying a formative measurement approach to test the index in relation to financial performance and against an organizational commitment scale. We use distributed lag models to test whether the ESOC...

  19. Probability 1/e

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

    2011-01-01

    Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

  20. Probability an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Goldberg, Samuel

    1960-01-01

    Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.

  1. Probability 1/e

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

    2011-01-01

    Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

  2. Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value

    2004-01-01

    Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the

  3. Agreeing Probability Measures for Comparative Probability Structures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.P. Wakker (Peter)

    1981-01-01

    textabstractIt is proved that fine and tight comparative probability structures (where the set of events is assumed to be an algebra, not necessarily a σ-algebra) have agreeing probability measures. Although this was often claimed in the literature, all proofs the author encountered are not valid

  4. Inability and Obligation in Moral Judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckwalter, Wesley; Turri, John

    2015-01-01

    It is often thought that judgments about what we ought to do are limited by judgments about what we can do, or that "ought implies can." We conducted eight experiments to test the link between a range of moral requirements and abilities in ordinary moral evaluations. Moral obligations were repeatedly attributed in tandem with inability, regardless of the type (Experiments 1-3), temporal duration (Experiment 5), or scope (Experiment 6) of inability. This pattern was consistently observed using a variety of moral vocabulary to probe moral judgments and was insensitive to different levels of seriousness for the consequences of inaction (Experiment 4). Judgments about moral obligation were no different for individuals who can or cannot perform physical actions, and these judgments differed from evaluations of a non-moral obligation (Experiment 7). Together these results demonstrate that commonsense morality rejects the "ought implies can" principle for moral requirements, and that judgments about moral obligation are made independently of considerations about ability. By contrast, judgments of blame were highly sensitive to considerations about ability (Experiment 8), which suggests that commonsense morality might accept a "blame implies can" principle.

  5. Sobre el parámetro de no extensividad para algunos sistemas super-aditivos Over the non-extensivity parameter for some superadditives systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Puerta–Yepes

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Este artículo propone una relación biunívoca entre el parámetro de no extensividad q y la función de densidad de probabilidad estacionaria f correspondientes a un observable u para algunos sistemas super–aditivos en los que la Entropía de Tsallis sea aplicable. Dicha relación se da en términos de comparación entre funciones de enlace que caracterizan la falta de memoria de ciertas variables aleatorias asociadas al parámetro q y a la densidad estacionaria f. Finalmente, a partir de los resultados anteriores, se propone un método que permite aproximar el parámetro q, mediante una estimación de f, cuando la energía efectiva asociada a u sea la energía cinética efectiva.In this paper one introduces a bijective relation between the non–extensivity parameter q and the stationary probability density function f corresponding to an observable u for some super–additive systems for which the notion of Tsallis entropy applies. This relation is given as a comparison of linking functions characterizing memoryless of certain random variables associated to parameter q and the stationary density f. Then these results are used to formulate a method for approximating the parameter q based on an estimation of f, provided that the effective energy associated to u equals the effective kinetic energy.

  6. Naturalness judgments by lay Americans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Rozin

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available This study directly tests the hypothesis that, at least within the domains of food and drink for Americans, the judgment of naturalness has more to do with the history of an object, that is the processes that it has undergone, as opposed to its material content. Individuals rate the naturalness and acceptability of a natural entity (water or tomato paste, that same entity with a first transformation in which a natural substance is added (or some part removed, and then a second transformation in which the natural additive is removed (or the removed part is replaced. The twice transformed entity is stipulated to be identical to the original natural entity, yet it is rated much less natural and less acceptable. It differs from the original entity only in its history (the reversed processes it has experienced. The twice transformed entity is also rated as less natural than the once-transformed entity, even though the former is identical to the original natural entity, and the latter is not. Therefore, naturalness depends heavily on the process-history of an entity.

  7. Individualistic and social motives for justice judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Prooijen, Jan-Willem

    2013-09-01

    Justice judgments are subjective by nature, and are influenced substantially by motivational processes. In the present contribution, two motives underlying justice judgments are examined: individualistic motives to evaluate solutions to social problems that benefit the self in material or immaterial ways as fair versus social motives to conceptualize justice in terms of the well-being of others, such as a desire for equality, adherence to in-group norms, and a concern for the collective interest. A review of relevant research reveals evidence for both motivations when people make evaluations of justice. Moreover, which motive is most dominant in the justice judgment process depends on perceptual salience: whereas individualistic motives are activated when a perceiver's own needs and goals are perceptually salient, social motives are activated when others' needs and goals are perceptually salient. It is concluded that both individualistic and social motives contribute in predictable ways to justice judgments.

  8. Judgments of Learning in Collaborative Learning Environments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Helsdingen, Anne

    2010-01-01

    Helsdingen, A. S. (2010, March). Judgments of Learning in Collaborative Learning Environments. Poster presented at the 1st International Air Transport and Operations Symposium (ATOS 2010), Delft, The Netherlands: Delft University of Technology.

  9. Judgments of Learning in Collaborative Learning Environments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Helsdingen, Anne

    2010-01-01

    Helsdingen, A. S. (2010, March). Judgments of Learning in Collaborative Learning Environments. Poster presented at the 1st International Air Transport and Operations Symposium (ATOS 2010), Delft, The Netherlands: Delft University of Technology.

  10. Known Unknowns in Judgment and Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Walters, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    This dissertation investigates how people make inferences about missing information. Whereas most prior literature focuses on how people process known information, I show that the extent to which people make inferences about missing information impacts judgments and choices. Specifically, I investigate how (1) awareness of known unknowns affects overconfidence in judgment in Chapter 1, (2) beliefs about the knowability of unknowns impacts investment strategies in Chapter 2, and (3) inferences...

  11. Ranking method for the reciprocal judgment matrix based on the unascertained three-valued judgments

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wan Yucheng; Ma Baoguo; Sheng Zhaohan

    2006-01-01

    The ranking problem is studied when the pairwise comparisons values are uncertain in the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The method of constructing the judgment matrix is presented when the pairwise comparisons values are denoted by the unascrtained three-valued reciprocal scales. By turning the reciprocal judgment matrix into attribute judgment matrix, the method to check the consistency of the pairwise comparisons judgment matrix and the calculation method of weighting coefficients are given. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  12. Probability and Relative Frequency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drieschner, Michael

    2016-01-01

    The concept of probability seems to have been inexplicable since its invention in the seventeenth century. In its use in science, probability is closely related with relative frequency. So the task seems to be interpreting that relation. In this paper, we start with predicted relative frequency and show that its structure is the same as that of probability. I propose to call that the `prediction interpretation' of probability. The consequences of that definition are discussed. The "ladder"-structure of the probability calculus is analyzed. The expectation of the relative frequency is shown to be equal to the predicted relative frequency. Probability is shown to be the most general empirically testable prediction.

  13. Elements of probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Rumshiskii, L Z

    1965-01-01

    Elements of Probability Theory presents the methods of the theory of probability. This book is divided into seven chapters that discuss the general rule for the multiplication of probabilities, the fundamental properties of the subject matter, and the classical definition of probability. The introductory chapters deal with the functions of random variables; continuous random variables; numerical characteristics of probability distributions; center of the probability distribution of a random variable; definition of the law of large numbers; stability of the sample mean and the method of moments

  14. Evaluating probability forecasts

    CERN Document Server

    Lai, Tze Leung; Shen, David Bo; 10.1214/11-AOS902

    2012-01-01

    Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used to assess the efficacy of the forecast probabilities after observing the occurrence, or nonoccurrence, of the predicted events. We develop herein a statistical theory for scoring rules and propose an alternative approach to the evaluation of probability forecasts. This approach uses loss functions relating the predicted to the actual probabilities of the events and applies martingale theory to exploit the temporal structure between the forecast and the subsequent occurrence or nonoccurrence of the event.

  15. Recalled emotions and risk judgments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shosh Shahrabani

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available The current study is based on a field study of the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war that was conducted in two waves, the first two weeks after the end of the war, and the second 18 months later (2008. The purpose of the study was to examine recalled emotions and perceived risks induced by manipulation using a short videoclip that recalled the sounds of the alarms and the sights of the missile attacks during the war. Before filling in the study questionnaire in 2008, the experimental group watched a short videoclip recalling the events of the war. The control group did not watch the video before filling in the questionnaire. Using the data provided by questionnaires, we analyzed the effect of recalled emotions on perceived risks in two different regions in Israel: the northern region, which was under missile attack daily during the war, and the central region, which was not under missile attacks. The videoclip had a strong effect on the level of recalled emotions in both regions, but it did not affect risk judgments. The results of the analytical framework in the northern region support both the valence approach, in which negative emotion increases pessimism about risk (Johnson and Tversky, 1983, and the modified appraisal tendency theory, which implies different effects for different emotions (Lerner and Keltner, 2000. The current study emphasizes the effects of recalled emotion in the context of the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war on perceived risks among those in the northern region who were under direct attack compared to those who were not directly exposed to the war. Understanding people's responses to stressful events is crucial, not only when these events take place but also over time, since media-induced emotions can influence appraisals and decisions regarding public policies.

  16. What Are Probability Surveys?

    Science.gov (United States)

    The National Aquatic Resource Surveys (NARS) use probability-survey designs to assess the condition of the nation’s waters. In probability surveys (also known as sample-surveys or statistical surveys), sampling sites are selected randomly.

  17. Introduction to probability

    CERN Document Server

    Roussas, George G

    2006-01-01

    Roussas's Introduction to Probability features exceptionally clear explanations of the mathematics of probability theory and explores its diverse applications through numerous interesting and motivational examples. It provides a thorough introduction to the subject for professionals and advanced students taking their first course in probability. The content is based on the introductory chapters of Roussas's book, An Intoduction to Probability and Statistical Inference, with additional chapters and revisions. Written by a well-respected author known for great exposition an

  18. Philosophical theories of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gillies, Donald

    2000-01-01

    The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.

  19. Dependent Probability Spaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, William F.; Shiflett, Ray C.; Shultz, Harris

    2008-01-01

    The mathematical model used to describe independence between two events in probability has a non-intuitive consequence called dependent spaces. The paper begins with a very brief history of the development of probability, then defines dependent spaces, and reviews what is known about finite spaces with uniform probability. The study of finite…

  20. Non-Archimedean Probability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia

    We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned

  1. Interpretations of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Khrennikov, Andrei

    2009-01-01

    This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.

  2. Non-Archimedean Probability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia

    2013-01-01

    We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned prob

  3. Expert judgment in analysis of human and organizational behaviour at nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reiman, L. [Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety, Helsinki (Finland). Dept. of Nuclear Safety

    1994-12-01

    Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a nuclear power plant includes an assessment of the probability of each event sequence that can lead to a reactor core damage and of their consequences. Despite increasing maturity of PSA methods, there are still several problems in their use. These include the assessment of human reliability and the impact of organizational factors on plant safety. The assessment of both these issues is based on expert judgment. Therefore, the use of expert judgment in analysis of human and organizational behaviour was studied theoretically and in practical case studies in this thesis. Human errors were analysed in two case studies. In the first study cognitive actions of control room operators were analysed. For this purpose methods were developed for the qualitative and quantitative phases of the analysis. Errors of test and maintenance personnel were analysed in the second case study. Especially the dependence of errors between sequential tasks performed in redundant subsystems of a safety system was studied. A method to assess organizational behaviour was developed and applied in the third case study. The three case studies demonstrated that expert judgment can be used in the analysis of human reliability and organizational behaviour taking into account the observations made and the remarks presented in the study. However, significant uncertainties are related with expert judgment. Recommendations are presented concerning the use of different methods. Also, some insights are presented into how reliance on expert judgment could be reduced. (241 refs., 20 figs., 36 tabs.).

  4. Expert judgment in assessing radwaste risks: What Nevadans should know about Yucca Mountain; [Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shrader-Frechette, K. [University of South Florida, Tampa, FL (United States)

    1992-06-01

    For phenomena characterized by accurate and largely complete data, quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides extraordinarily valuable and objective information. However, with phenomena for which the data, models, or probabilities are incomplete or uncertain, QRA may be less useful and more questionable, because its conclusions are typically empirically and theoretically underdetermined. In the face of empirical or theoretical underdetermination, scientists often are forced to make a number of methodological value judgments and inferences about how to estimate and evaluate the associated risks. The purpose of this project is to evaluate instances of methodological value judgments and invalid or imprecise inferences that have occurred in the QRA done for the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level radioactive waste facility. We shall show (1) that questionable methodological value judgments and inferences have occurred in some Yucca Mountain QRA`S; (2) that questionable judgments and inferences, similar to those in the Yucca Mountain studies, have occurred in previous QRA`s done for other radiation-related facilities and have likely caused earlier QRA`s to err in specific ways; and (3) that, because the value judgments and problems associated with some Yucca Mountain QRA`s include repetitions of similar difficulties in earlier studies, therefore the QRA conclusions of some Yucca Mountain analyses are, at best, uncertain.

  5. Resistance to Temptation and Moral Judgment: Behavioral Correlates of Kohlberg's Measure of Moral Judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelsen, Edward A.; And Others

    This study was designed to assess and compare the roles of intelligence and moral judgment in relation to patterns of behavior in temptation situations. Six Resistance to Temptation (RTT) tasks were administered to 106 sixth grade students. One year later, four Kohlberg Moral Judgment (MJ) tasks were administered to 100 of the same subjects. IQ…

  6. Dynamical Simulation of Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zak, Michail

    1996-01-01

    It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-Lipschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices(such as random number generators). Self-orgainizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed. Special attention was focused upon coupled stochastic processes, defined in terms of conditional probabilities, for which joint probability does not exist. Simulations of quantum probabilities are also discussed.

  7. Philosophy and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Childers, Timothy

    2013-01-01

    Probability is increasingly important for our understanding of the world. What is probability? How do we model it, and how do we use it? Timothy Childers presents a lively introduction to the foundations of probability and to philosophical issues it raises. He keeps technicalities to a minimum, and assumes no prior knowledge of the subject. He explains the main interpretations of probability-frequentist, propensity, classical, Bayesian, and objective Bayesian-and uses stimulatingexamples to bring the subject to life. All students of philosophy will benefit from an understanding of probability,

  8. Judgment sampling: a health care improvement perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perla, Rocco J; Provost, Lloyd P

    2012-01-01

    Sampling plays a major role in quality improvement work. Random sampling (assumed by most traditional statistical methods) is the exception in improvement situations. In most cases, some type of "judgment sample" is used to collect data from a system. Unfortunately, judgment sampling is not well understood. Judgment sampling relies upon those with process and subject matter knowledge to select useful samples for learning about process performance and the impact of changes over time. It many cases, where the goal is to learn about or improve a specific process or system, judgment samples are not merely the most convenient and economical approach, they are technically and conceptually the most appropriate approach. This is because improvement work is done in the real world in complex situations involving specific areas of concern and focus; in these situations, the assumptions of classical measurement theory neither can be met nor should an attempt be made to meet them. The purpose of this article is to describe judgment sampling and its importance in quality improvement work and studies with a focus on health care settings.

  9. Atypical moral judgment following traumatic brain injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelica Muresan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Previous research has shown an association between emotions, particularly social emotions, and moral judgments. Some studies suggested an association between blunted emotion and the utilitarian moral judgments observed in patients with prefrontal lesions. In order to investigate how prefrontal brain damage affects moral judgment, we asked a sample of 29 TBI patients (12 females and 17 males and 41 healthy participants (16 females and 25 males to judge 22 hypothetical dilemmas split into three different categories (non-moral, impersonal and personal moral. The TBI group presented a higher proportion of affirmative (utilitarian responses for personal moral dilemmas when compared to controls, suggesting an atypical pattern of utilitarian judgements. We also found a negative association between the performance on recognition of social emotions and the proportion of affirmative responses on personal moral dilemmas. These results suggested that the preference for utilitarian responses in this type of dilemmas is accompanied by difficulties in social emotion recognition. Overall, our findings suggest that deontological moral judgments are associated with normal social emotion processing and that frontal lobe plays an important role in both emotion and moral judgment.

  10. Acceptance sampling using judgmental and randomly selected samples

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sego, Landon H.; Shulman, Stanley A.; Anderson, Kevin K.; Wilson, John E.; Pulsipher, Brent A.; Sieber, W. Karl

    2010-09-01

    We present a Bayesian model for acceptance sampling where the population consists of two groups, each with different levels of risk of containing unacceptable items. Expert opinion, or judgment, may be required to distinguish between the high and low-risk groups. Hence, high-risk items are likely to be identifed (and sampled) using expert judgment, while the remaining low-risk items are sampled randomly. We focus on the situation where all observed samples must be acceptable. Consequently, the objective of the statistical inference is to quantify the probability that a large percentage of the unsampled items in the population are also acceptable. We demonstrate that traditional (frequentist) acceptance sampling and simpler Bayesian formulations of the problem are essentially special cases of the proposed model. We explore the properties of the model in detail, and discuss the conditions necessary to ensure that required samples sizes are non-decreasing function of the population size. The method is applicable to a variety of acceptance sampling problems, and, in particular, to environmental sampling where the objective is to demonstrate the safety of reoccupying a remediated facility that has been contaminated with a lethal agent.

  11. Judgment in an auditor's materiality assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Rikke Holmslykke

    2015-01-01

    ‘Materiality’ is considered a key audit concept both theoretically and in practice, but regulation enforcers are concerned about the different views on materiality held by preparers, auditors, users and enforcers, respectively, because different levels of materiality could result in users having...... a heterogeneous decision basis. This may seem surprising considering that the rule-of-thumb is simply to calculate materiality as 5% of net income before taxes. By analysing the prior audit materiality literature through a comprehensive literature review, this paper identifies the important quantitative...... and qualitative components of materiality judgments, which include both task, person and interpersonal interactions in line with general audit judgment and decision-making theory. This analysis offers an enhanced understanding of what the »black box« of professional materiality judgment contains. The analysis...

  12. Construal levels and moral judgment: Some complications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Gong

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Eyal, T., Liberman, N., and Trope, Y., (2008. Judging near and distant virtue and vice. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 44, 1204-1209, explored how psychological distance influences moral judgment and found that more extreme moral appraisals were given to distal behaviors rather than proximal behaviors. Contrary to Eyal et al., the current paper presents converging evidence showing that moral judgments become more extreme at lower-level construals compared to higher-level construals. In four experiments using two different priming techniques, we manipulated construal levels and assessed their effects on moral judgment. High-level consturals elicited less moral outrage toward transgressions and less positive ratings of virtuous behaviors than low-level construals. A replication study was also conducted to reconcile the inconsistencies between the current results and those of Eyal et al. Possible explanations for the different results between two studies are discussed.

  13. Judgment in an auditor's materiality assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Rikke Holmslykke

    2015-01-01

    a heterogeneous decision basis. This may seem surprising considering that the rule-of-thumb is simply to calculate materiality as 5% of net income before taxes. By analysing the prior audit materiality literature through a comprehensive literature review, this paper identifies the important quantitative......‘Materiality’ is considered a key audit concept both theoretically and in practice, but regulation enforcers are concerned about the different views on materiality held by preparers, auditors, users and enforcers, respectively, because different levels of materiality could result in users having...... and qualitative components of materiality judgments, which include both task, person and interpersonal interactions in line with general audit judgment and decision-making theory. This analysis offers an enhanced understanding of what the »black box« of professional materiality judgment contains. The analysis...

  14. Extraversion, neuroticism, immoral judgment and criminal behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addad, M; Leslau, A

    1989-01-01

    The present study examines delinquent behaviour by integrating two approaches until now employed separately: Eysnck's theory linking delinquency to extraversion and neuroticism, and Kohlberg's theory of moral development and its connection to moral behaviour. The study analyzes the relations between extraversion, neuroticism and moral judgment, as well as their independent and/or interactive effect upon the development of anti-social behaviour. The relationships are tested by retrospective measurements of personality traits and moral judgment in three groups: delinquency (N = 203), control (N = 82) and comparative (N = 407) groups. Findings show that criminals are higher than control subjects in neuroticism and immoral judgment but not in extraversion. Similar relationships were found between criminals and the comparative group, with one exception: here extraversion was found to be positively related to delinquency, both independently and interactively with neuroticism. The implications of these results for differential development of anti-social behaviour are discussed.

  15. Personality judgments based on physical appearance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naumann, Laura P; Vazire, Simine; Rentfrow, Peter J; Gosling, Samuel D

    2009-12-01

    Despite the crucial role of physical appearance in forming first impressions, little research has examined the accuracy of personality impressions based on appearance alone. This study examined the accuracy of observers' impressions on 10 personality traits based on full-body photographs using criterion measures based on self and peer reports. When targets' posture and expression were constrained (standardized condition), observers' judgments were accurate for extraversion, self-esteem, and religiosity. When targets were photographed with a spontaneous pose and facial expression (spontaneous condition), observers' judgments were accurate for almost all of the traits examined. Lens model analyses demonstrated that both static cues (e.g., clothing style) and dynamic cues (e.g., facial expression, posture) offered valuable personality-relevant information. These results suggest that personality is manifested through both static and expressive channels of appearance, and observers use this information to form accurate judgments for a variety of traits.

  16. Probability and radical behaviorism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espinosa, James M.

    1992-01-01

    The concept of probability appears to be very important in the radical behaviorism of Skinner. Yet, it seems that this probability has not been accurately defined and is still ambiguous. I give a strict, relative frequency interpretation of probability and its applicability to the data from the science of behavior as supplied by cumulative records. Two examples of stochastic processes are given that may model the data from cumulative records that result under conditions of continuous reinforcement and extinction, respectively. PMID:22478114

  17. Probability and radical behaviorism

    OpenAIRE

    Espinosa, James M.

    1992-01-01

    The concept of probability appears to be very important in the radical behaviorism of Skinner. Yet, it seems that this probability has not been accurately defined and is still ambiguous. I give a strict, relative frequency interpretation of probability and its applicability to the data from the science of behavior as supplied by cumulative records. Two examples of stochastic processes are given that may model the data from cumulative records that result under conditions of continuous reinforc...

  18. PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, REPORTS), (*PROBABILITY, REPORTS), INFORMATION THEORY, DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS, STATISTICAL PROCESSES, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS, DISTRIBUTION THEORY , DECISION THEORY, MEASURE THEORY, OPTIMIZATION

  19. Real analysis and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E

    1972-01-01

    Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var

  20. Handbook of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Florescu, Ionut

    2013-01-01

    THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio

  1. On Quantum Conditional Probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel Guerra Bobo

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available We argue that quantum theory does not allow for a generalization of the notion of classical conditional probability by showing that the probability defined by the Lüders rule, standardly interpreted in the literature as the quantum-mechanical conditionalization rule, cannot be interpreted as such.

  2. Choice Probability Generating Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...

  3. Introduction to probability

    CERN Document Server

    Freund, John E

    1993-01-01

    Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.

  4. Choice Probability Generating Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...

  5. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...

  6. Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Varacca, Daniele

    Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particula...

  7. Context effects produced by question orders reveal quantum nature of human judgments

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, quantum probability theory has been used to explain a range of seemingly irrational human decision-making behaviors. The quantum models generally outperform traditional models in fitting human data, but both modeling approaches require optimizing parameter values. However, quantum theory makes a universal, nonparametric prediction for differing outcomes when two successive questions (e.g., attitude judgments) are asked in different orders. Quite remarkably, this prediction wa...

  8. Risk Assessment at the Cosmetic Product Manufacturer by Expert Judgment Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vtorushina, A. N.; Larionova, E. V.; Mezenceva, I. L.; Nikonova, E. D.

    2017-05-01

    A case study was performed in a cosmetic product manufacturer. We have identified the main risk factors of occupational accidents and their causes. Risk of accidents is assessed by the expert judgment method. Event tree for the most probable accident is built and recommendations on improvement of occupational health and safety protection system at the cosmetic product manufacturer are developed. The results of this paper can be used to develop actions to improve the occupational safety and health system in the chemical industry.

  9. Using expert judgments to explore robust alternatives for forest management under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDaniels, Timothy; Mills, Tamsin; Gregory, Robin; Ohlson, Dan

    2012-12-01

    We develop and apply a judgment-based approach to selecting robust alternatives, which are defined here as reasonably likely to achieve objectives, over a range of uncertainties. The intent is to develop an approach that is more practical in terms of data and analysis requirements than current approaches, informed by the literature and experience with probability elicitation and judgmental forecasting. The context involves decisions about managing forest lands that have been severely affected by mountain pine beetles in British Columbia, a pest infestation that is climate-exacerbated. A forest management decision was developed as the basis for the context, objectives, and alternatives for land management actions, to frame and condition the judgments. A wide range of climate forecasts, taken to represent the 10-90% levels on cumulative distributions for future climate, were developed to condition judgments. An elicitation instrument was developed, tested, and revised to serve as the basis for eliciting probabilistic three-point distributions regarding the performance of selected alternatives, over a set of relevant objectives, in the short and long term. The elicitations were conducted in a workshop comprising 14 regional forest management specialists. We employed the concept of stochastic dominance to help identify robust alternatives. We used extensive sensitivity analysis to explore the patterns in the judgments, and also considered the preferred alternatives for each individual expert. The results show that two alternatives that are more flexible than the current policies are judged more likely to perform better than the current alternatives on average in terms of stochastic dominance. The results suggest judgmental approaches to robust decision making deserve greater attention and testing. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Application and Evaluation of an Expert Judgment Elicitation Procedure for Correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zondervan-Zwijnenburg, Mariëlle; van de Schoot-Hubeek, Wenneke; Lek, Kimberley; Hoijtink, Herbert; van de Schoot, Rens

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of the current study was to apply and evaluate a procedure to elicit expert judgments about correlations, and to update this information with empirical data. The result is a face-to-face group elicitation procedure with as its central element a trial roulette question that elicits experts' judgments expressed as distributions. During the elicitation procedure, a concordance probability question was used to provide feedback to the experts on their judgments. We evaluated the elicitation procedure in terms of validity and reliability by means of an application with a small sample of experts. Validity means that the elicited distributions accurately represent the experts' judgments. Reliability concerns the consistency of the elicited judgments over time. Four behavioral scientists provided their judgments with respect to the correlation between cognitive potential and academic performance for two separate populations enrolled at a specific school in the Netherlands that provides special education to youth with severe behavioral problems: youth with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), and youth with diagnoses other than ASD. Measures of face-validity, feasibility, convergent validity, coherence, and intra-rater reliability showed promising results. Furthermore, the current study illustrates the use of the elicitation procedure and elicited distributions in a social science application. The elicited distributions were used as a prior for the correlation, and updated with data for both populations collected at the school of interest. The current study shows that the newly developed elicitation procedure combining the trial roulette method with the elicitation of correlations is a promising tool, and that the results of the procedure are useful as prior information in a Bayesian analysis. PMID:28197115

  11. On the Merits of Clinical Judgment: Comment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garb, Howard N.; Grove, William M.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents comments on the article by D. Westen and J. Weinberger , which criticized academic clinical psychologists for being cynical about clinical judgment and clinical practice. In the authors' view, it seems unlikely that more than a few academic clinical psychologists believe that they have little to learn from clinical practice or…

  12. Anchoring and Publicity Effects in Clinical Judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedlander, Myrna L.; Stockman, Susan J.

    1983-01-01

    Tested anchoring and publicity effects in clinicians' (N=46) successive judgments of detailed interview notes. Results indicated significant anchoring in one case suggesting a clinical bias. Public justification was related neither to subjects' ratings, to reported confidence in their ratings, nor differentially by case. (JAC)

  13. Judgment Pitfalls in Estimating Premorbid Intellectual Function

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kareken, David A

    1997-01-01

    ... on their judgment. Lezak (1983) proposes that clinicians render an estimate synthesized from interview, anecdotal information, demographic characteristics, and patients' patterns of test performance. Similarly, Vanderploeg (1994) recommends integrating estimates from a number of formulas with past academic performance, occupational success, and con...

  14. Comment: Effects of Experience on Judgment Accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichtenberg, James W.

    2009-01-01

    However intuitively appealing the notion is that therapists learn from clinical experience (presumably both successes and failures), whether clinical judgment actually is enhanced by experience remains a matter on which there continues to be disagreement. The author discusses the meta-analysis of P.M. Spengler et al. that demonstrates a supportive…

  15. A Longitudinal Study of Moral Judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colby, Anne; And Others

    A 20-year study to verify Lawrence Kohlberg's theory of moral development through a new research design, the Standard Issue Scoring System, is reported. Kohlberg theorizes that an individual progresses through several stages in attaining moral judgment. As children grow older, they are able to integrate diverse points of view on a moral conflict.…

  16. Understanding How Grammatical Aspect Influences Legal Judgment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew M Sherrill

    Full Text Available Recent evidence suggests that grammatical aspect can bias how individuals perceive criminal intentionality during discourse comprehension. Given that criminal intentionality is a common criterion for legal definitions (e.g., first-degree murder, the present study explored whether grammatical aspect may also impact legal judgments. In a series of four experiments participants were provided with a legal definition and a description of a crime in which the grammatical aspect of provocation and murder events were manipulated. Participants were asked to make a decision (first- vs. second-degree murder and then indicate factors that impacted their decision. Findings suggest that legal judgments can be affected by grammatical aspect but the most robust effects were limited to temporal dynamics (i.e., imperfective aspect results in more murder actions than perfective aspect, which may in turn influence other representational systems (i.e., number of murder actions positively predicts perceived intentionality. In addition, findings demonstrate that the influence of grammatical aspect on situation model construction and evaluation is dependent upon the larger linguistic and semantic context. Together, the results suggest grammatical aspect has indirect influences on legal judgments to the extent that variability in aspect changes the features of the situation model that align with criteria for making legal judgments.

  17. Understanding How Grammatical Aspect Influences Legal Judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherrill, Andrew M; Eerland, Anita; Zwaan, Rolf A; Magliano, Joseph P

    2015-01-01

    Recent evidence suggests that grammatical aspect can bias how individuals perceive criminal intentionality during discourse comprehension. Given that criminal intentionality is a common criterion for legal definitions (e.g., first-degree murder), the present study explored whether grammatical aspect may also impact legal judgments. In a series of four experiments participants were provided with a legal definition and a description of a crime in which the grammatical aspect of provocation and murder events were manipulated. Participants were asked to make a decision (first- vs. second-degree murder) and then indicate factors that impacted their decision. Findings suggest that legal judgments can be affected by grammatical aspect but the most robust effects were limited to temporal dynamics (i.e., imperfective aspect results in more murder actions than perfective aspect), which may in turn influence other representational systems (i.e., number of murder actions positively predicts perceived intentionality). In addition, findings demonstrate that the influence of grammatical aspect on situation model construction and evaluation is dependent upon the larger linguistic and semantic context. Together, the results suggest grammatical aspect has indirect influences on legal judgments to the extent that variability in aspect changes the features of the situation model that align with criteria for making legal judgments.

  18. 7 CFR 3017.920 - Civil judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... by verdict, decision, settlement, stipulation, other disposition which creates a civil liability for the complained of wrongful acts, or a final determination of liability under the Program Fraud Civil... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Civil judgment. 3017.920 Section 3017.920...

  19. 29 CFR 1471.920 - Civil judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ..., stipulation, other disposition which creates a civil liability for the complained of wrongful acts, or a final determination of liability under the Program Fraud Civil Remedies Act of 1988 (31 U.S.C. 3801-3812). ... 29 Labor 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Civil judgment. 1471.920 Section 1471.920 Labor...

  20. 31 CFR 19.920 - Civil judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ..., stipulation, other disposition which creates a civil liability for the complained of wrongful acts, or a final determination of liability under the Program Fraud Civil Remedies Act of 1988 (31 U.S.C. 3801-3812). ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Civil judgment. 19.920 Section...

  1. Judgment of facial expressions and depression persistence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hale, WW

    1998-01-01

    In research it has been demonstrated that cognitive and interpersonal processes play significant roles in depression development and persistence. The judgment of emotions displayed in facial expressions by depressed patients allows for a better understanding of these processes. In this study, 48 maj

  2. Apprentices' Learning of Occupationally Informed Practical Judgment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Selena

    2015-01-01

    Learning to become trade workers requires developing the ability to make practical workplace-based judgments, often centred around difficult to articulate trade "know-how" or tacit knowledge. Apprentices learn discipline specific ways of doing, thinking, feeling and being from experts, peers and through interactions with occupational…

  3. Norm Acquisition, Rational Judgment and Moral Particularism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westphal, Kenneth R.

    2012-01-01

    Moral particularism, defined as the view that moral judgment does not require moral principles, has become prominent both in moral philosophy and in philosophy of education. This article re-examines Nussbaum's case for particularism, based on Sophocles' "Antigone", because her stress on sensitive appreciation of circumstantial specifics is…

  4. Reflection and Reasoning in Moral Judgment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxton, Joseph M.; Ungar, Leo; Greene, Joshua D.

    2012-01-01

    While there is much evidence for the influence of automatic emotional responses on moral judgment, the roles of reflection and reasoning remain uncertain. In Experiment 1, we induced subjects to be more reflective by completing the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) prior to responding to moral dilemmas. This manipulation increased utilitarian…

  5. Judgment: The Nurse's Key to Knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doona, Mary Ellen

    1992-01-01

    Examples of nurses in ancient Greek literature--Euryclea in Homer's "Odyssey," Cilissa in Aeschylus'"Oresteia," and the nurse in Euripides'"Medea"--illustrate the personal commitment in judgment and the obligation of nurses to move from doubt and opinion toward knowledge and certitude. (SK)

  6. The Moral Judgments of Preschool Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruen, Gerald E.; And Others

    1979-01-01

    Preschoolers' responses to Piagetian moral judgment stories indicate that they respond differentially to good and bad intent (punishing the bad intentions but not responding to good or neutral intentions), but that only older children respond reliably and differentially to consequences. (RL)

  7. ASL or Contact Signing: Issues of Judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, Ceil; Valli, Clayton

    1991-01-01

    Reports on one aspect of an ongoing study of language contact in the American deaf community. The ultimate goal of the study is a linguistic description of contact signing and a reexamination of claims that it is a pidgin. Patterns of language use are reviewed and the role of demographic information in judgments is examined. (29 references) (GLR)

  8. Pragmatic inferences and self-relevant judgments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Puente-Diaz, Rogelio; Cavazos Arroyo, Judith; Brem, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    Three studies examined the influence of type of scale on self-relevant judgments and the moderating role of age, prevention, focus, and need for cogni- tion. Participants were randomly assigned to a bipolar or a unipolar scale condition in all three studies. Results from study 1 with a representa...

  9. Personality judgments from everyday images of faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutherland, Clare A M; Rowley, Lauren E; Amoaku, Unity T; Daguzan, Ella; Kidd-Rossiter, Kate A; Maceviciute, Ugne; Young, Andrew W

    2015-01-01

    People readily make personality attributions to images of strangers' faces. Here we investigated the basis of these personality attributions as made to everyday, naturalistic face images. In a first study, we used 1000 highly varying "ambient image" face photographs to test the correspondence between personality judgments of the Big Five and dimensions known to underlie a range of facial first impressions: approachability, dominance, and youthful-attractiveness. Interestingly, the facial Big Five judgments were found to separate to some extent: judgments of openness, extraversion, emotional stability, and agreeableness were mainly linked to facial first impressions of approachability, whereas conscientiousness judgments involved a combination of approachability and dominance. In a second study we used average face images to investigate which main cues are used by perceivers to make impressions of the Big Five, by extracting consistent cues to impressions from the large variation in the original images. When forming impressions of strangers from highly varying, naturalistic face photographs, perceivers mainly seem to rely on broad facial cues to approachability, such as smiling.

  10. Personality judgments from everyday images of faces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clare AM Sutherland

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available People readily make personality attributions to images of strangers’ faces. Here we investigated the basis of these personality attributions as made to everyday, naturalistic face images. In a first study, we used 1,000 highly varying ‘ambient image’ face photographs to test the correspondence between personality judgments of the Big Five and dimensions known to underlie a range of facial first impressions: approachability, dominance and youthful-attractiveness. Interestingly, the facial Big Five judgments were found to separate to some extent: judgments of openness, extraversion, emotional stability and agreeableness were mainly linked to facial first impressions of approachability, whereas conscientiousness judgments involved a combination of approachability and dominance. In a second study we used average face images to investigate which main cues are used by perceivers to make impressions of the Big Five, by extracting consistent cues to impressions from the large variation in the original images. When forming impressions of strangers from highly varying, naturalistic face photographs, perceivers mainly seem to rely on broad facial cues to approachability, such as smiling.

  11. Children's Facial Trustworthiness Judgments: Agreement and Relationship with Facial Attractiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Fengling; Xu, Fen; Luo, Xianming

    2016-01-01

    This study examined developmental changes in children's abilities to make trustworthiness judgments based on faces and the relationship between a child's perception of trustworthiness and facial attractiveness. One hundred and one 8-, 10-, and 12-year-olds, along with 37 undergraduates, were asked to judge the trustworthiness of 200 faces. Next, they issued facial attractiveness judgments. The results indicated that children made consistent trustworthiness and attractiveness judgments based on facial appearance, but with-adult and within-age agreement levels of facial judgments increased with age. Additionally, the agreement levels of judgments made by girls were higher than those by boys. Furthermore, the relationship between trustworthiness and attractiveness judgments increased with age, and the relationship between two judgments made by girls was closer than those by boys. These findings suggest that face-based trait judgment ability develops throughout childhood and that, like adults, children may use facial attractiveness as a heuristic cue that signals a stranger's trustworthiness.

  12. The Development of Toddlers' Moral and Conventional Judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smetana, Judith G.; Braeges, Judith L.

    1990-01-01

    Examines the development of toddlers' moral and conventional judgments and effects of language development on such judgments. Rudimentary distinctions between familiar moral, social and conventional transgressions are made during the child's third year. (Author/BB)

  13. Intelligence and the Development of Moral Judgment in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Seymour

    1977-01-01

    A moral judgment interview was administered to 100 elementary parochial school children. The relationship of intelligence, age, and sex to the quality of response in four areas of moral judgment was assessed. (MS)

  14. The Role of Short-Term Memory Capacity and Task Experience for Overconfidence in Judgment under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Patrik; Juslin, Peter; Winman, Anders

    2008-01-01

    Research with general knowledge items demonstrates extreme overconfidence when people estimate confidence intervals for unknown quantities, but close to zero overconfidence when the same intervals are assessed by probability judgment. In 3 experiments, the authors investigated if the overconfidence specific to confidence intervals derives from…

  15. Probability and Measure

    CERN Document Server

    Billingsley, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this

  16. Clinical Judgment Accuracy: From Meta-Analysis to Metatheory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ridley, Charles R.; Shaw-Ridley, Mary

    2009-01-01

    Clinical judgment is foundational to psychological practice. Accurate judgment forms the basis for establishing reasonable goals and selecting appropriate treatments, which in turn are essential in achieving positive therapeutic outcomes. Therefore, Spengler and colleagues' meta-analytic finding--clinical judgment accuracy improves marginally with…

  17. Affection for Patients as a Factor in Therapists' Outcome Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Paul J.; And Others

    1976-01-01

    Explores the possibility of separating psychotherapists' judgments of treatment outcome from their affective reactions to their patients. If therapists' judgments of symptom remission cannot be utilized independently of their affection for their patients, this would present reason to doubt the utility of such judgments despite their current…

  18. The Appropriateness of Confidence Ratings in Clinical Judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garb, Howard N.

    1986-01-01

    Reviewed studies in which clinicians made judgments and then rated the degree of confidence that they had in each of their judgments. Results reveal little support for the hypothesis that clinicians are overconfident. Confidence ratings were related positively to the validity of judgments in a number of studies. Experienced clinicians made more…

  19. 25 CFR 87.11 - Investment of judgment funds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Investment of judgment funds. 87.11 Section 87.11 Indians... JUDGMENT FUNDS § 87.11 Investment of judgment funds. As soon as possible after the appropriation of... distribution of the funds, the Commissioner shall invest such funds pursuant to 25 U.S.C. 162a. Investments...

  20. Probabilities in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Hartmann, Stephan

    2011-01-01

    Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...

  1. Concepts of probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Pfeiffer, Paul E

    1979-01-01

    Using the Kolmogorov model, this intermediate-level text discusses random variables, probability distributions, mathematical expectation, random processes, more. For advanced undergraduates students of science, engineering, or math. Includes problems with answers and six appendixes. 1965 edition.

  2. Probability in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Hemmo, Meir

    2012-01-01

    What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their  explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive. 

  3. Probability and Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    1987-01-01

    This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

  4. Probability an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Grimmett, Geoffrey

    2014-01-01

    Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...

  5. THE NUCLEAR ENCOUNTER PROBABILITY

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    SMULDERS, PJM

    1994-01-01

    This Letter dicusses the nuclear encounter probability as used in ion channeling analysis. A formulation is given, incorporating effects of large beam angles and beam divergence. A critical examination of previous definitions is made.

  6. Probability for statisticians

    CERN Document Server

    Shorack, Galen R

    2017-01-01

    This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...

  7. Probability and Statistical Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Prosper, Harrison B.

    2006-01-01

    These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.

  8. Grammaticality, Acceptability, and Probability: A Probabilistic View of Linguistic Knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Jey Han; Clark, Alexander; Lappin, Shalom

    2016-10-12

    The question of whether humans represent grammatical knowledge as a binary condition on membership in a set of well-formed sentences, or as a probabilistic property has been the subject of debate among linguists, psychologists, and cognitive scientists for many decades. Acceptability judgments present a serious problem for both classical binary and probabilistic theories of grammaticality. These judgements are gradient in nature, and so cannot be directly accommodated in a binary formal grammar. However, it is also not possible to simply reduce acceptability to probability. The acceptability of a sentence is not the same as the likelihood of its occurrence, which is, in part, determined by factors like sentence length and lexical frequency. In this paper, we present the results of a set of large-scale experiments using crowd-sourced acceptability judgments that demonstrate gradience to be a pervasive feature in acceptability judgments. We then show how one can predict acceptability judgments on the basis of probability by augmenting probabilistic language models with an acceptability measure. This is a function that normalizes probability values to eliminate the confounding factors of length and lexical frequency. We describe a sequence of modeling experiments with unsupervised language models drawn from state-of-the-art machine learning methods in natural language processing. Several of these models achieve very encouraging levels of accuracy in the acceptability prediction task, as measured by the correlation between the acceptability measure scores and mean human acceptability values. We consider the relevance of these results to the debate on the nature of grammatical competence, and we argue that they support the view that linguistic knowledge can be intrinsically probabilistic.

  9. Probability in quantum mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Gilson

    1982-01-01

    Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.

  10. Quantum computing and probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferry, David K

    2009-11-25

    Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.

  11. Monte Carlo transition probabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Lucy, L. B.

    2001-01-01

    Transition probabilities governing the interaction of energy packets and matter are derived that allow Monte Carlo NLTE transfer codes to be constructed without simplifying the treatment of line formation. These probabilities are such that the Monte Carlo calculation asymptotically recovers the local emissivity of a gas in statistical equilibrium. Numerical experiments with one-point statistical equilibrium problems for Fe II and Hydrogen confirm this asymptotic behaviour. In addition, the re...

  12. Generating human reliability estimates using expert judgment. Volume 2. Appendices. [PWR; BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Comer, M.K.; Seaver, D.A.; Stillwell, W.G.; Gaddy, C.D.

    1984-11-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is conducting a research program to determine the practicality, acceptability, and usefulness of several different methods for obtaining human reliability data and estimates that can be used in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). One method, investigated as part of this overall research program, uses expert judgment to generate human error probability (HEP) estimates and associated uncertainty bounds. The project described in this document evaluated two techniques for using expert judgment: paired comparisons and direct numerical estimation. Volume 2 provides detailed procedures for using the techniques, detailed descriptions of the analyses performed to evaluate the techniques, and HEP estimates generated as part of this project. The results of the evaluation indicate that techniques using expert judgment should be given strong consideration for use in developing HEP estimates. Judgments were shown to be consistent and to provide HEP estimates with a good degree of convergent validity. Of the two techniques tested, direct numerical estimation appears to be preferable in terms of ease of application and quality of results.

  13. A Review of Expertise and Judgment Processes for Risk Estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R. L. Boring

    2007-06-01

    A major challenge of risk and reliability analysis for human errors or hardware failures is the need to enlist expert opinion in areas for which adequate operational data are not available. Experts enlisted in this capacity provide probabilistic estimates of reliability, typically comprised of a measure of central tendency and uncertainty bounds. While formal guidelines for expert elicitation are readily available, they largely fail to provide a theoretical basis for expertise and judgment. This paper reviews expertise and judgment in the context of risk analysis; overviews judgment biases, the role of training, and multivariate judgments; and provides guidance on the appropriate use of atomistic and holistic judgment processes.

  14. The perception of probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E

    2014-01-01

    We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making.

  15. Experimental Probability in Elementary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, Lane

    2009-01-01

    Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

  16. Experimental Probability in Elementary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, Lane

    2009-01-01

    Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

  17. The brain's specialized systems for aesthetic and perceptual judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishizu, T; Zeki, S

    2013-05-01

    We recorded brain activity when 21 subjects judged the beauty (aesthetic or affective judgment) and brightness (perceptual or cognitive judgment) of simultaneously presented paintings. Aesthetic judgments engaged medial and lateral subdivisions of the orbitofrontal cortex as well as subcortical stations associated with affective motor planning (globus pallidus, putamen-claustrum, amygdala, and cerebellar vermis), whereas the motor, premotor and supplementary motor areas, as well as the anterior insula and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, were engaged by both kinds of judgment. The results lead us to conclude: (i) that there is a functional specialization for judgment, with aesthetic judgments engaging distinct systems, in addition to those that they share with perceptual judgments; (ii) that the systems engaged by affective judgments are those in which activity correlates with polar experiences (e.g. love-hate, beauty-ugliness, and attraction-repulsion); and (iii) that there is also a functional specialization in the motor pathways, with aesthetic judgments engaging motor systems not engaged by perceptual judgments, in addition to those engaged by both kinds of judgment.

  18. The pleasures of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Isaac, Richard

    1995-01-01

    The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al­ most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more­ these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re­ moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac­ ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...

  19. Differential diagnosis and the suspension of judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Ashley Graham

    2013-10-01

    In this paper I argue that ethics and evidence are intricately intertwined within the clinical practice of differential diagnosis. Too often, when a disease is difficult to diagnose, a physician will dismiss it as being "not real" or "all in the patient's head." This is both an ethical and an evidential problem. In the paper my aim is two-fold. First, via the examination of two case studies (late-stage Lyme disease and Addison's disease), I try to elucidate why this kind of dismissal takes place. Then, I propose a potential solution to the problem. I argue that instead of dismissing a patient's illness as "not real," physicians ought to exercise a compassionate suspension of judgment when a diagnosis cannot be immediately made. I argue that suspending judgment has methodological, epistemic, and ethical virtues and therefore should always be preferred to patient dismissal in the clinical setting.

  20. Weighting Mean and Variability during Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Gardelle, Vincent; Mamassian, Pascal

    2015-01-01

    Humans can not only perform some visual tasks with great precision, they can also judge how good they are in these tasks. However, it remains unclear how observers produce such metacognitive evaluations, and how these evaluations might be dissociated from the performance in the visual task. Here, we hypothesized that some stimulus variables could affect confidence judgments above and beyond their impact on performance. In a motion categorization task on moving dots, we manipulated the mean and the variance of the motion directions, to obtain a low-mean low-variance condition and a high-mean high-variance condition with matched performances. Critically, in terms of confidence, observers were not indifferent between these two conditions. Observers exhibited marked preferences, which were heterogeneous across individuals, but stable within each observer when assessed one week later. Thus, confidence and performance are dissociable and observers’ confidence judgments put different weights on the stimulus variables that limit performance. PMID:25793275

  1. Judgments of culpability in a filicide scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Christopher J; Miller-Stratton, Heather; Heinrich, Emily; Fritz, Stacey; Smith, Shawn

    2008-01-01

    Previous research has indicated that potential jurors are likely to use personal biases, such as those based on gender and ethnicity, in their judgments of culpability of criminal defendants in addition to, or instead of, the facts of the crime. The present paper seeks to extend this literature to the crime of filicide; to examine whether male defendants are judged more harshly than female defendants, as is the case for domestic violence and sexual abuse. 214 participants were provided with a scenario of filicide in which the gender of the perpetrator, the gender of the child, and the family's social class were randomly assigned. Participants were asked to rate the culpability of the defendant in the case. Results indicated that, unlike for other violent crimes, participants did not use gender or social class biases in their judgments of criminal culpability.

  2. Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Melucci, Massimo

    2011-01-01

    The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...

  3. Judgmental forecasting from graphs and from experience

    OpenAIRE

    Theochari, Z.

    2014-01-01

    Research in the field of forecasting suggests that judgmental forecasts are typically subject to a number of biases. These biases may be related to the statistical characteristics of the data series, or to the characteristics of the forecasting task. Here, a number of understudied forecasting paradigms have been investigated and these revealed interesting ways of improving forecasting performance. In a series of experiments, by controlling parameters such as the horizon and direction of the f...

  4. Social cognition and social judgment in schizophrenia

    OpenAIRE

    Robyn Langdon; Michael H Connors; Emily Connaughton

    2014-01-01

    Schizophrenia typically involves poor social functioning. This may be due, in part, to deficits in theory-of-mind, the cognitive ability to reason flexibly about the mental states of others. Patients also have deficits in social knowledge. It is currently unclear how these two impairments interrelate in schizophrenia. To address this issue, 43 patients with schizophrenia and 25 healthy controls completed two theory-of-mind tests and a novel test of social judgment. This latter measure require...

  5. Social cognition and social judgment in schizophrenia

    OpenAIRE

    Robyn Langdon; Connors, Michael H.; Emily Connaughton

    2014-01-01

    Schizophrenia typically involves poor social functioning. This may be due, in part, to deficits in theory-of-mind, the cognitive ability to reason flexibly about the mental states of others. Patients also have deficits in social knowledge. It is currently unclear how these two impairments interrelate in schizophrenia. To address this issue, 43 patients with schizophrenia and 25 healthy controls completed two theory-of-mind tests and a novel test of social judgment. This latter measure require...

  6. Personality judgments from everyday images of faces

    OpenAIRE

    Clare AM Sutherland; Rowley, Lauren E.; Amoaku, Unity T.; Ella eDaguzan; Kate A Kidd-Rossiter; Ugne eMaceviciute; Young, Andrew W.

    2015-01-01

    People readily make personality attributions to images of strangers' faces. Here we investigated the basis of these personality attributions as made to everyday, naturalistic face images. In a first study, we used 1000 highly varying “ambient image” face photographs to test the correspondence between personality judgments of the Big Five and dimensions known to underlie a range of facial first impressions: approachability, dominance, and youthful-attractiveness. Interestingly, the facial Big ...

  7. Personality judgments from everyday images of faces

    OpenAIRE

    Clare AM Sutherland; Lauren E Rowley; Unity T Amoaku; Ella eDaguzan; Kate A Kidd-Rossiter; Ugne eMaceviciute; Andrew W Young

    2015-01-01

    People readily make personality attributions to images of strangers' faces. Here we investigated the basis of these personality attributions as made to everyday, naturalistic face images. In a first study, we used 1000 highly varying “ambient image” face photographs to test the correspondence between personality judgments of the Big Five and dimensions known to underlie a range of facial first impressions: approachability, dominance, and youthful-attractiveness. Interestingly, the facial Big ...

  8. Probabilities from Envariance

    CERN Document Server

    Zurek, W H

    2004-01-01

    I show how probabilities arise in quantum physics by exploring implications of {\\it environment - assisted invariance} or {\\it envariance}, a recently discovered symmetry exhibited by entangled quantum systems. Envariance of perfectly entangled states can be used to rigorously justify complete ignorance of the observer about the outcome of any measurement on either of the members of the entangled pair. Envariance leads to Born's rule, $p_k \\propto |\\psi_k|^2$. Probabilities derived in this manner are an objective reflection of the underlying state of the system -- they reflect experimentally verifiable symmetries, and not just a subjective ``state of knowledge'' of the observer. Envariance - based approach is compared with and found superior to the key pre-quantum definitions of probability including the {\\it standard definition} based on the `principle of indifference' due to Laplace, and the {\\it relative frequency approach} advocated by von Mises. Implications of envariance for the interpretation of quantu...

  9. Collision Probability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    1998-01-01

    It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...

  10. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2010-01-01

    This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications...

  11. Negative Probabilities and Contextuality

    CERN Document Server

    de Barros, J Acacio; Oas, Gary

    2015-01-01

    There has been a growing interest, both in physics and psychology, in understanding contextuality in experimentally observed quantities. Different approaches have been proposed to deal with contextual systems, and a promising one is contextuality-by-default, put forth by Dzhafarov and Kujala. The goal of this paper is to present a tutorial on a different approach: negative probabilities. We do so by presenting the overall theory of negative probabilities in a way that is consistent with contextuality-by-default and by examining with this theory some simple examples where contextuality appears, both in physics and psychology.

  12. Introduction to imprecise probabilities

    CERN Document Server

    Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin

  13. Estimating tail probabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carr, D.B.; Tolley, H.D.

    1982-12-01

    This paper investigates procedures for univariate nonparametric estimation of tail probabilities. Extrapolated values for tail probabilities beyond the data are also obtained based on the shape of the density in the tail. Several estimators which use exponential weighting are described. These are compared in a Monte Carlo study to nonweighted estimators, to the empirical cdf, to an integrated kernel, to a Fourier series estimate, to a penalized likelihood estimate and a maximum likelihood estimate. Selected weighted estimators are shown to compare favorably to many of these standard estimators for the sampling distributions investigated.

  14. Classic Problems of Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gorroochurn, Prakash

    2012-01-01

    "A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library."—Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexin

  15. Electrophysiological brain dynamics during the esthetic judgment of human bodies and faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, Francisco; Martín-Loeches, Manuel

    2015-01-12

    This experiment investigated how the esthetic judgment of human body and face modulates cognitive and affective processes. We hypothesized that judgments on ugliness and beauty would elicit separable event-related brain potentials (ERP) patterns, depending on the esthetic value of body and faces in both genders. In a pretest session, participants evaluated images in a range from very ugly to very beautiful, what generated three sets of beautiful, ugly and neutral faces and bodies. In the recording session, they performed a task consisting in a beautiful-neutral-ugly judgment. Cognitive and affective effects were observed on a differential pattern of ERP components (P200, P300 and LPC). Main findings revealed a P200 amplitude increase to ugly images, probably the result of a negativity bias in attentional processes. A P300 increase was found mostly to beautiful images, particularly to female bodies, consistent with the salience of these stimuli, particularly for stimulus categorization. LPC appeared significantly larger to both ugly and beautiful images, probably reflecting later, decision processes linked to keeping information in working memory. This finding was especially remarkable for ugly male faces. Our findings are discussed on the ground of evolutionary and adaptive value of esthetics in person evaluation. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled Hold Item.

  16. Epistemology and Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Plotnitsky, Arkady

    2010-01-01

    Offers an exploration of the relationships between epistemology and probability in the work of Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, and Erwin Schrodinger; in quantum mechanics; and in modern physics. This book considers the implications of these relationships and of quantum theory for our understanding of the nature of thinking and knowledge in general

  17. Counterexamples in probability

    CERN Document Server

    Stoyanov, Jordan M

    2013-01-01

    While most mathematical examples illustrate the truth of a statement, counterexamples demonstrate a statement's falsity. Enjoyable topics of study, counterexamples are valuable tools for teaching and learning. The definitive book on the subject in regards to probability, this third edition features the author's revisions and corrections plus a substantial new appendix.

  18. Varga: On Probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varga, Tamas

    This booklet resulted from a 1980 visit by the author, a Hungarian mathematics educator, to the Teachers' Center Project at Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville. Included are activities and problems that make probablility concepts accessible to young children. The topics considered are: two probability games; choosing two beads; matching…

  19. Collision Probability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    1998-01-01

    probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...

  20. On Probability Domains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frič, Roman; Papčo, Martin

    2010-12-01

    Motivated by IF-probability theory (intuitionistic fuzzy), we study n-component probability domains in which each event represents a body of competing components and the range of a state represents a simplex S n of n-tuples of possible rewards-the sum of the rewards is a number from [0,1]. For n=1 we get fuzzy events, for example a bold algebra, and the corresponding fuzzy probability theory can be developed within the category ID of D-posets (equivalently effect algebras) of fuzzy sets and sequentially continuous D-homomorphisms. For n=2 we get IF-events, i.e., pairs ( μ, ν) of fuzzy sets μ, ν∈[0,1] X such that μ( x)+ ν( x)≤1 for all x∈ X, but we order our pairs (events) coordinatewise. Hence the structure of IF-events (where ( μ 1, ν 1)≤( μ 2, ν 2) whenever μ 1≤ μ 2 and ν 2≤ ν 1) is different and, consequently, the resulting IF-probability theory models a different principle. The category ID is cogenerated by I=[0,1] (objects of ID are subobjects of powers I X ), has nice properties and basic probabilistic notions and constructions are categorical. For example, states are morphisms. We introduce the category S n D cogenerated by Sn=\\{(x1,x2,ldots ,xn)in In;sum_{i=1}nxi≤ 1\\} carrying the coordinatewise partial order, difference, and sequential convergence and we show how basic probability notions can be defined within S n D.

  1. Fundamental dimensions of social judgment: understanding the relations between judgments of competence and warmth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judd, Charles M; James-Hawkins, Laurie; Yzerbyt, Vincent; Kashima, Yoshihisa

    2005-12-01

    In seems there are two dimensions that underlie most judgments of traits, people, groups, and cultures. Although the definitions vary, the first makes reference to attributes such as competence, agency, and individualism, and the second to warmth, communality, and collectivism. But the relationship between the two dimensions seems unclear. In trait and person judgment, they are often positively related; in group and cultural stereotypes, they are often negatively related. The authors report 4 studies that examine the dynamic relationship between these two dimensions, experimentally manipulating the location of a target of judgment on one and examining the consequences for the other. In general, the authors' data suggest a negative dynamic relationship between the two, moderated by factors the impact of which they explore.

  2. Negative probability in the framework of combined probability

    OpenAIRE

    Burgin, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...

  3. Negative probability in the framework of combined probability

    OpenAIRE

    Burgin, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...

  4. The neural basis of intuitive and counterintuitive moral judgment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiech, Katja; Shackel, Nicholas; Farias, Miguel; Savulescu, Julian; Tracey, Irene

    2012-01-01

    Neuroimaging studies on moral decision-making have thus far largely focused on differences between moral judgments with opposing utilitarian (well-being maximizing) and deontological (duty-based) content. However, these studies have investigated moral dilemmas involving extreme situations, and did not control for two distinct dimensions of moral judgment: whether or not it is intuitive (immediately compelling to most people) and whether it is utilitarian or deontological in content. By contrasting dilemmas where utilitarian judgments are counterintuitive with dilemmas in which they are intuitive, we were able to use functional magnetic resonance imaging to identify the neural correlates of intuitive and counterintuitive judgments across a range of moral situations. Irrespective of content (utilitarian/deontological), counterintuitive moral judgments were associated with greater difficulty and with activation in the rostral anterior cingulate cortex, suggesting that such judgments may involve emotional conflict; intuitive judgments were linked to activation in the visual and premotor cortex. In addition, we obtained evidence that neural differences in moral judgment in such dilemmas are largely due to whether they are intuitive and not, as previously assumed, to differences between utilitarian and deontological judgments. Our findings therefore do not support theories that have generally associated utilitarian and deontological judgments with distinct neural systems. PMID:21421730

  5. Neural correlates of explicit social judgments on vocal stimuli.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hensel, Lukas; Bzdok, Danilo; Müller, Veronika I; Zilles, Karl; Eickhoff, Simon B

    2015-05-01

    Functional neuroimaging research on the neural basis of social evaluation has traditionally focused on face perception paradigms. Thus, little is known about the neurobiology of social evaluation processes based on auditory cues, such as voices. To investigate the top-down effects of social trait judgments on voices, hemodynamic responses of 44 healthy participants were measured during social trait (trustworthiness [TR] and attractiveness [AT]), emotional (happiness, HA), and cognitive (age, AG) voice judgments. Relative to HA and AG judgments, TR and AT judgments both engaged the bilateral inferior parietal cortex (IPC; area PGa) and the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) extending into the perigenual anterior cingulate cortex. This dmPFC activation overlapped with previously reported areas specifically involved in social judgments on 'faces.' Moreover, social trait judgments were expected to share neural correlates with emotional HA and cognitive AG judgments. Comparison of effects pertaining to social, social-emotional, and social-cognitive appraisal processes revealed a dissociation of the left IPC into 3 functional subregions assigned to distinct cytoarchitectonic subdivisions. In total, the dmPFC is proposed to assume a central role in social attribution processes across sensory qualities. In social judgments on voices, IPC activity shifts from rostral processing of more emotional judgment facets to caudal processing of more cognitive judgment facets.

  6. Judgments of warmth and competence in a computerized paradigm: Little evidence of proposed impression formation asymmetries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jørgensen, Øyvind; Bäckström, Martin; Björklund, Fredrik

    2017-01-01

    Much of what we know concerning impression formation is based on experimental methods where the participant receives a list of traits or behaviors and is asked to make trait judgments or meta-cognitive judgments. The present study aimed to put some well-known effects from the impression formation literature to a test in a more dynamic computerized environment, more akin to many real world impression formation scenarios. In three studies participants were introduced to multiple target persons. They were given information about the target persons' behavior, one at a time, while making ratings of their warmth and competence, and their probability of performing related behaviors in the future. In neither of the studies the negativity effect of warmth or the positivity effect of competence were reproduced.

  7. Blushing-fearful individuals overestimate the costs and probability of their blushing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijk, C.; De Jong, P.J.

    2012-01-01

    It has been proposed that blushing-fearful individuals overestimate both the probability and the interpersonal costs of blushing. To study these judgmental biases, we presented a treatment-seeking sample of blushing-fearful individuals a series of vignettes describing social events and tested whethe

  8. Correcting Students' Misconceptions about Probability in an Introductory College Statistics Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khazanov, Leonid; Prado, Lucio

    2010-01-01

    College students' misconceptions about probability are common and widespread. These misconceptions impede students' ability to make sound judgments in situations of uncertainty and master fundamental concepts of inferential statistics. In this paper the authors report the results of a study undertaken with the objective of correcting three common…

  9. Paradoxes in probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Eckhardt, William

    2013-01-01

    Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory.  Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies.  Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.

  10. Contributions to quantum probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fritz, Tobias

    2010-06-25

    Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a

  11. Superpositions of probability distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jizba, Petr; Kleinert, Hagen

    2008-09-01

    Probability distributions which can be obtained from superpositions of Gaussian distributions of different variances v=σ2 play a favored role in quantum theory and financial markets. Such superpositions need not necessarily obey the Chapman-Kolmogorov semigroup relation for Markovian processes because they may introduce memory effects. We derive the general form of the smearing distributions in v which do not destroy the semigroup property. The smearing technique has two immediate applications. It permits simplifying the system of Kramers-Moyal equations for smeared and unsmeared conditional probabilities, and can be conveniently implemented in the path integral calculus. In many cases, the superposition of path integrals can be evaluated much easier than the initial path integral. Three simple examples are presented, and it is shown how the technique is extended to quantum mechanics.

  12. Superpositions of probability distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jizba, Petr; Kleinert, Hagen

    2008-09-01

    Probability distributions which can be obtained from superpositions of Gaussian distributions of different variances v=sigma;{2} play a favored role in quantum theory and financial markets. Such superpositions need not necessarily obey the Chapman-Kolmogorov semigroup relation for Markovian processes because they may introduce memory effects. We derive the general form of the smearing distributions in v which do not destroy the semigroup property. The smearing technique has two immediate applications. It permits simplifying the system of Kramers-Moyal equations for smeared and unsmeared conditional probabilities, and can be conveniently implemented in the path integral calculus. In many cases, the superposition of path integrals can be evaluated much easier than the initial path integral. Three simple examples are presented, and it is shown how the technique is extended to quantum mechanics.

  13. Probability theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Hsu, Elton P

    1999-01-01

    This volume, with contributions by leading experts in the field, is a collection of lecture notes of the six minicourses given at the IAS/Park City Summer Mathematics Institute. It introduces advanced graduates and researchers in probability theory to several of the currently active research areas in the field. Each course is self-contained with references and contains basic materials and recent results. Topics include interacting particle systems, percolation theory, analysis on path and loop spaces, and mathematical finance. The volume gives a balanced overview of the current status of probability theory. An extensive bibliography for further study and research is included. This unique collection presents several important areas of current research and a valuable survey reflecting the diversity of the field.

  14. Fractal probability laws.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliazar, Iddo; Klafter, Joseph

    2008-06-01

    We explore six classes of fractal probability laws defined on the positive half-line: Weibull, Frechét, Lévy, hyper Pareto, hyper beta, and hyper shot noise. Each of these classes admits a unique statistical power-law structure, and is uniquely associated with a certain operation of renormalization. All six classes turn out to be one-dimensional projections of underlying Poisson processes which, in turn, are the unique fixed points of Poissonian renormalizations. The first three classes correspond to linear Poissonian renormalizations and are intimately related to extreme value theory (Weibull, Frechét) and to the central limit theorem (Lévy). The other three classes correspond to nonlinear Poissonian renormalizations. Pareto's law--commonly perceived as the "universal fractal probability distribution"--is merely a special case of the hyper Pareto class.

  15. Bayesian Probability Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

    2014-06-01

    Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

  16. Measurement uncertainty and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Willink, Robin

    2013-01-01

    A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

  17. Searching with Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-07-26

    DeGroot , Morris H. Probability and Statistic. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Reading, Massachusetts, 1975. [Gillogly 78] Gillogly, J.J. Performance...distribution [ DeGroot 751 has just begun. The beta distribution has several features that might make it a more reasonable choice. As with the normal-based...1982. [Cooley 65] Cooley, J.M. and Tukey, J.W. An algorithm for the machine calculation of complex Fourier series. Math. Comp. 19, 1965. [ DeGroot 75

  18. Probability via expectation

    CERN Document Server

    Whittle, Peter

    1992-01-01

    This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap­ peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de­ manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...

  19. Deliberate choices or strong motives: Exploring the mechanisms underlying the bias of organic claims on leniency judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prada, Marília; Rodrigues, David; Garrido, Margarida V

    2016-08-01

    Organic claims can influence how a product is perceived in dimensions that are unrelated with the food production method (e.g., organic food is perceived as more healthful and less caloric than conventional food). Such claims can also bias how the consumers of organic food are perceived and how other people judge their behavior. Schuldt and Schwarz (2010) have shown that individuals evaluating a target with a weight-loss goal are more lenient in judging the target forgoing exercise when the target had an organic (vs. conventional) dessert. This impact of organic claims on leniency judgments has been interpreted either as a halo or a licensing effect. In the current research we aim to replicate and extend Schuldt and Schwarz's (2010) results by examining the mechanisms that are more likely to explain the observed leniency judgments. In Experiment 1, we observed that leniency towards a target that has consumed an organic meal is only observed when the target intentionally chooses such organic meal (vs. choice determined by the situation). These findings suggest that the impact of organic claims on leniency judgments is not merely based on a halo effect. Instead, a licensing account emerges as the most probable mechanism. In Experiment 2, we further found that stronger (vs. weaker) motives for forgoing exercise influenced leniency judgments to the same extent as having had an organic meal. Understanding the mechanisms that shape consumers' decisions may have important implications to prevent bias in their judgments about food and exercise.

  20. A human judgment approach to epidemiological forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrow, David C; Brooks, Logan C; Hyun, Sangwon; Tibshirani, Ryan J; Burke, Donald S; Rosenfeld, Roni

    2017-03-01

    Infectious diseases impose considerable burden on society, despite significant advances in technology and medicine over the past century. Advanced warning can be helpful in mitigating and preparing for an impending or ongoing epidemic. Historically, such a capability has lagged for many reasons, including in particular the uncertainty in the current state of the system and in the understanding of the processes that drive epidemic trajectories. Presently we have access to data, models, and computational resources that enable the development of epidemiological forecasting systems. Indeed, several recent challenges hosted by the U.S. government have fostered an open and collaborative environment for the development of these technologies. The primary focus of these challenges has been to develop statistical and computational methods for epidemiological forecasting, but here we consider a serious alternative based on collective human judgment. We created the web-based "Epicast" forecasting system which collects and aggregates epidemic predictions made in real-time by human participants, and with these forecasts we ask two questions: how accurate is human judgment, and how do these forecasts compare to their more computational, data-driven alternatives? To address the former, we assess by a variety of metrics how accurately humans are able to predict influenza and chikungunya trajectories. As for the latter, we show that real-time, combined human predictions of the 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 U.S. flu seasons are often more accurate than the same predictions made by several statistical systems, especially for short-term targets. We conclude that there is valuable predictive power in collective human judgment, and we discuss the benefits and drawbacks of this approach.

  1. Emotion and deliberative reasoning in moral judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummins, Denise Dellarosa; Cummins, Robert C

    2012-01-01

    According to an influential dual-process model, a moral judgment is the outcome of a rapid, affect-laden process and a slower, deliberative process. If these outputs conflict, decision time is increased in order to resolve the conflict. Violations of deontological principles proscribing the use of personal force to inflict intentional harm are presumed to elicit negative affect which biases judgments early in the decision-making process. This model was tested in three experiments. Moral dilemmas were classified using (a) decision time and consensus as measures of system conflict and (b) the aforementioned deontological criteria. In Experiment 1, decision time was either unlimited or reduced. The dilemmas asked whether it was appropriate to take a morally questionable action to produce a "greater good" outcome. Limiting decision time reduced the proportion of utilitarian ("yes") decisions, but contrary to the model's predictions, (a) vignettes that involved more deontological violations logged faster decision times, and (b) violation of deontological principles was not predictive of decisional conflict profiles. Experiment 2 ruled out the possibility that time pressure simply makes people more like to say "no." Participants made a first decision under time constraints and a second decision under no time constraints. One group was asked whether it was appropriate to take the morally questionable action while a second group was asked whether it was appropriate to refuse to take the action. The results replicated that of Experiment 1 regardless of whether "yes" or "no" constituted a utilitarian decision. In Experiment 3, participants rated the pleasantness of positive visual stimuli prior to making a decision. Contrary to the model's predictions, the number of deontological decisions increased in the positive affect rating group compared to a group that engaged in a cognitive task or a control group that engaged in neither task. These results are consistent with the

  2. COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH OVER THE PROFESSIONAL JUDGMENT OF THE FINANCIAL ANALYST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viorica Mirela ŞTEFAN-DUICU

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The professional judgment is emblematical at a decisional level. This paper aims to highlight the valences of the professional judgment of the financial analyst by describing the components of its activity and also through highlighting the typologies of the mechanisms involved. Within this paper we have presented the types of financial analysts, the responsibilities that guide the professional judgment and also the interdependent elements of their activity.

  3. Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Melucci, Massimo

    2011-01-01

    The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of false alarm and the same parameter estimation data. As quantum probability provided more effective detectors than classical probability within other domains that data management, we conjecture that, the system that can implement subspace-based detectors shall be more effective than a system which implements a set-based detectors, the effectiveness being calculated as expected recall estimated over the probability of detection and expected fallout estimated over the probability of false alarm.

  4. Application of a Judgment Model toward Measurement of Clinical Judgment in Senior Nursing Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pongmarutai, Tiwaporn

    2010-01-01

    Clinical judgment, defined as "the application of the nurse's knowledge and experience in making decisions about client care" (The National Council of State Boards of Nursing, 2005, p. 2), has been recognized as a vital and essential skill for healthcare providers when caring for clients. Undisputedly, nurses represent the largest…

  5. Training complex judgment: The effects of critical thinking and complex judgment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Helsdingen, Anne; Van Gog, Tamara; Van Merriënboer, Jeroen

    2010-01-01

    Helsdingen, A. S., Van Gog, T., & Van Merrienboer, J. J. G. (2009). Training complex judgment: The effects of critical thinking and contextual interference. Paper presented at the International Center for Learning, Education and Performance Systems (ICLEPS). Talahassee, Florida: Florida State Univer

  6. Electrophysiological difference between the representations of causal judgment and associative judgment in semantic memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qingfei; Liang, Xiuling; Lei, Yi; Li, Hong

    2015-05-01

    Causally related concepts like "virus" and "epidemic" and general associatively related concepts like "ring" and "emerald" are represented and accessed separately. The Evoked Response Potential (ERP) procedure was used to examine the representations of causal judgment and associative judgment in semantic memory. Participants were required to remember a task cue (causal or associative) presented at the beginning of each trial, and assess whether the relationship between subsequently presented words matched the initial task cue. The ERP data showed that an N400 effect (250-450 ms) was more negative for unrelated words than for all related words. Furthermore, the N400 effect elicited by causal relations was more positive than for associative relations in causal cue condition, whereas no significant difference was found in the associative cue condition. The centrally distributed late ERP component (650-750 ms) elicited by the causal cue condition was more positive than for the associative cue condition. These results suggested that the processing of causal judgment and associative judgment in semantic memory recruited different degrees of attentional and executive resources.

  7. Training complex judgment: the effects of critical thinking and complex judgment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Helsdingen, Anne; Van Gog, Tamara; Van Merriënboer, Jeroen; Van den Bosch, Karel

    2010-01-01

    Helsdingen, A. S., Van Gog, T., Van Merriënboer, J. J. G., & Van den Bosch, K. (2009). Training complex judgment: the effects of critical thinking and contextual interference. Poster presented at the international conference on cognitive load theory. March, 2-4, 2009, Heerlen, The Netherlands. [Post

  8. Risk Emotions and Risk Judgments: Passive Bodily Experience and Active Moral Reasoning in Judgmental Constellations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coeckelbergh, Mark

    2007-01-01

    Experts typically accuse lay people of ‘emotional’ responses to technological risk as opposed to their own ‘rational’ judgment. This attitude is in tune with risk perception research that qualifies lay people’s responses in terms of bias (e.g. Slovic et. al. 2004), and with the Kantian view of emoti

  9. Risk Emotions and Risk Judgments: Passive Bodily Experience and Active Moral Reasoning in Judgmental Constellations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coeckelbergh, Mark

    2007-01-01

    Experts typically accuse lay people of ‘emotional’ responses to technological risk as opposed to their own ‘rational’ judgment. This attitude is in tune with risk perception research that qualifies lay people’s responses in terms of bias (e.g. Slovic et. al. 2004), and with the Kantian view of emoti

  10. The Influence of Judgment Calls on Meta-Analytic Findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarrahi, Farid; Eisend, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Previous research has suggested that judgment calls (i.e., methodological choices made in the process of conducting a meta-analysis) have a strong influence on meta-analytic findings and question their robustness. However, prior research applies case study comparison or reanalysis of a few meta-analyses with a focus on a few selected judgment calls. These studies neglect the fact that different judgment calls are related to each other and simultaneously influence the outcomes of a meta-analysis, and that meta-analytic findings can vary due to non-judgment call differences between meta-analyses (e.g., variations of effects over time). The current study analyzes the influence of 13 judgment calls in 176 meta-analyses in marketing research by applying a multivariate, multilevel meta-meta-analysis. The analysis considers simultaneous influences from different judgment calls on meta-analytic effect sizes and controls for alternative explanations based on non-judgment call differences between meta-analyses. The findings suggest that judgment calls have only a minor influence on meta-analytic findings, whereas non-judgment call differences between meta-analyses are more likely to explain differences in meta-analytic findings. The findings support the robustness of meta-analytic results and conclusions.

  11. Study on Accuracy of Judgments by Chinese Fingerprint Examiners

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiquan Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The interpretation of fingerprint evidence depends on the judgments of fingerprint examiners. This study assessed the accuracy of different judgments made by fingerprint examiners following the Analysis, Comparison, and Evaluation (ACE process. Each examiner was given five marks for analysis, comparison, and evaluation. We compared the experts′ judgments against the ground truth and used an annotation platform to evaluate how Chinese fingerprint examiners document their comparisons during the identification process. The results showed that different examiners demonstrated different accuracy of judgments and different mechanisms to reach them.

  12. Applying Popper's Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Whiting, Alan B

    2014-01-01

    Professor Sir Karl Popper (1902-1994) was one of the most influential philosophers of science of the twentieth century, best known for his doctrine of falsifiability. His axiomatic formulation of probability, however, is unknown to current scientists, though it is championed by several current philosophers of science as superior to the familiar version. Applying his system to problems identified by himself and his supporters, it is shown that it does not have some features he intended and does not solve the problems they have identified.

  13. Probably Almost Bayes Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anoulova, S.; Fischer, Paul; Poelt, S.

    1996-01-01

    discriminant functions for this purpose. We analyze this approach for different classes of distribution functions of Boolean features:kth order Bahadur-Lazarsfeld expansions andkth order Chow expansions. In both cases, we obtain upper bounds for the required sample size which are small polynomials...... in the relevant parameters and which match the lower bounds known for these classes. Moreover, the learning algorithms are efficient.......In this paper, we investigate the problem of classifying objects which are given by feature vectors with Boolean entries. Our aim is to "(efficiently) learn probably almost optimal classifications" from examples. A classical approach in pattern recognition uses empirical estimations of the Bayesian...

  14. Probability for physicists

    CERN Document Server

    Sirca, Simon

    2016-01-01

    This book is designed as a practical and intuitive introduction to probability, statistics and random quantities for physicists. The book aims at getting to the main points by a clear, hands-on exposition supported by well-illustrated and worked-out examples. A strong focus on applications in physics and other natural sciences is maintained throughout. In addition to basic concepts of random variables, distributions, expected values and statistics, the book discusses the notions of entropy, Markov processes, and fundamentals of random number generation and Monte-Carlo methods.

  15. Generalized Probability Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Souto Martinez

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available From the integration of nonsymmetrical hyperboles, a one-parameter generalization of the logarithmic function is obtained. Inverting this function, one obtains the generalized exponential function. Motivated by the mathematical curiosity, we show that these generalized functions are suitable to generalize some probability density functions (pdfs. A very reliable rank distribution can be conveniently described by the generalized exponential function. Finally, we turn the attention to the generalization of one- and two-tail stretched exponential functions. We obtain, as particular cases, the generalized error function, the Zipf-Mandelbrot pdf, the generalized Gaussian and Laplace pdf. Their cumulative functions and moments were also obtained analytically.

  16. Chemosignals of stress influence social judgments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pamela Dalton

    Full Text Available Human body odors have important communicative functions regarding genetic identity, immune fitness and general health, but an expanding body of research suggests they can also communicate information about an individual's emotional state. In the current study, we tested whether axillary odors obtained from women experiencing psychosocial stress could negatively influence personality judgments of warmth and competence made about other women depicted in video scenarios. 44 female donors provided three types of sweat samples: untreated exercise sweat, untreated stress sweat and treated stress sweat. After a 'washout' period, a commercial unscented anti-perspirant product was applied to the left axilla only to evaluate whether 'blocking' the stress signal would improve the social evaluations. A separate group of male and female evaluators (n = 120 rated the women in the videos while smelling one of the three types of sweat samples. Women in the video scenes were rated as being more stressed by both men and women when smelling the untreated vs. treated stress sweat. For men only, the women in the videos were rated as less confident, trustworthy and competent when smelling both the untreated stress and exercise sweat in contrast to the treated stress sweat. Women's social judgments were unaffected by sniffing the pads. The results have implications for influencing multiple types of professional and personal social interactions and impression management and extend our understanding of the social communicative function of body odors.

  17. Social cognition and social judgment in schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robyn Langdon

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Schizophrenia typically involves poor social functioning. This may be due, in part, to deficits in theory-of-mind, the cognitive ability to reason flexibly about the mental states of others. Patients also have deficits in social knowledge. It is currently unclear how these two impairments interrelate in schizophrenia. To address this issue, 43 patients with schizophrenia and 25 healthy controls completed two theory-of-mind tests and a novel test of social judgment. This latter measure required participants to judge whether various social behaviors were normal or reasonable in the context in which the behaviors occurred. Whereas patients demonstrated clear deficits in theory-of-mind, they performed similarly to controls when judging socially appropriate behaviors and violations of social norms. Patients, however, were less likely than controls to judge social behavior as reasonable when the behavior was impolite but understandable if the characters’ thoughts were taken into account. This latter difficulty correlated with patients’ performance deficits on the theory-of-mind tasks. Overall, findings suggest that basic social knowledge is intact in schizophrenia, though judgments of social behavior are affected by patients’ theory-of-mind deficits.

  18. Exposure influences expressive timing judgments in music.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honing, Henkjan; Ladinig, Olivia

    2009-02-01

    This study is concerned with the question whether, and to what extent, listeners' previous exposure to music in everyday life, and expertise as a result of formal musical training, play a role in making expressive timing judgments in music. This was investigated by using a Web-based listening experiment in which listeners with a wide range of musical backgrounds were asked to compare 2 recordings of the same composition (15 pairs, grouped in 3 musical genres), 1 of which was tempo-transformed (manipulating the expressive timing). The results show that expressive timing judgments are not so much influenced by expertise levels, as is suggested by the expertise hypothesis, but by exposure to a certain musical idiom, as is suggested by the exposure hypothesis. As such, the current study provides evidence for the idea that some musical capabilities are acquired through mere exposure to music, and that these abilities are more likely enhanced by active listening (exposure) than by formal musical training (expertise).

  19. Gender-related differences in moral judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fumagalli, M; Ferrucci, R; Mameli, F; Marceglia, S; Mrakic-Sposta, S; Zago, S; Lucchiari, C; Consonni, D; Nordio, F; Pravettoni, G; Cappa, S; Priori, A

    2010-08-01

    The moral sense is among the most complex aspects of the human mind. Despite substantial evidence confirming gender-related neurobiological and behavioral differences, and psychological research suggesting gender specificities in moral development, whether these differences arise from cultural effects or are innate remains unclear. In this study, we investigated the role of gender, education (general education and health education) and religious belief (Catholic and non-Catholic) on moral choices by testing 50 men and 50 women with a moral judgment task. Whereas we found no differences between the two genders in utilitarian responses to non-moral dilemmas and to impersonal moral dilemmas, men gave significantly more utilitarian answers to personal moral (PM) dilemmas (i.e., those courses of action whose endorsement involves highly emotional decisions). Cultural factors such as education and religion had no effect on performance in the moral judgment task. These findings suggest that the cognitive-emotional processes involved in evaluating PM dilemmas differ in men and in women, possibly reflecting differences in the underlying neural mechanisms. Gender-related determinants of moral behavior may partly explain gender differences in real-life involving power management, economic decision-making, leadership and possibly also aggressive and criminal behaviors.

  20. Culture shapes efficiency of facial age judgments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gizelle Anzures

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cultural differences in socialization can lead to characteristic differences in how we perceive the world. Consistent with this influence of differential experience, our perception of faces (e.g., preference, recognition ability is shaped by our previous experience with different groups of individuals. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we examined whether cultural differences in social practices influence our perception of faces. Japanese, Chinese, and Asian-Canadian young adults made relative age judgments (i.e., which of these two faces is older? for East Asian faces. Cross-cultural differences in the emphasis on respect for older individuals was reflected in participants' latency in facial age judgments for middle-age adult faces--with the Japanese young adults performing the fastest, followed by the Chinese, then the Asian-Canadians. In addition, consistent with the differential behavioural and linguistic markers used in the Japanese culture when interacting with individuals younger than oneself, only the Japanese young adults showed an advantage in judging the relative age of children's faces. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results show that different sociocultural practices shape our efficiency in processing facial age information. The impact of culture may potentially calibrate other aspects of face processing.

  1. Phenomenology of consciousness from apprehension to judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arecchi, F Tito

    2011-07-01

    We explore two different moments of human cognition, namely apprehension (A), whereby a coherent perception emerges by recruitment of large neuron groups and judgment (B), whereby memory retrieval of different (A) units coded in a suitable language and comparison of them leads to the formulation of a judgment. The first one has a duration around 1 sec (from 0.5 to 3 sec), it appears as an a-temporal present and its neural correlate is a wide synchronization in the EEG gamma band. It may be described as an interpretation of sensorial stimuli in terms of some stored algorithm, via a Bayes procedure. The second one entails the comparison of two apprehensions acquired at different times, coded in a given language, and retrieved by memory. It lasts around 3 sec and requires self-consciousness, as the judging agent must be well aware that he/she is the same one who faces the two coded apprehensions under scrutiny in order to extract a mutual relation. At variance with (A), (B) does not presuppose an algorithm, but it rather builds a new behavioural model by an inverse Bayes procedure. It will be shown how this build up of a novel model is related to creativity and free will.

  2. Olympic Medals as Fruits of Comparison? Assimilation and Contrast in Sequential Performance Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damisch, Lysann; Mussweiler, Thomas; Plessner, Henning

    2006-01-01

    The authors investigated the evaluative consequences of sequential performance judgments. Recent social comparison research has suggested that performance judgments may be influenced by judgments about a preceding performance. Specifically, performance judgments may be assimilated to judgments of the preceding performance if judges focus on…

  3. Perceptual hysteresis in the judgment of auditory pitch shift.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Claire; Pressnitzer, Daniel

    2014-07-01

    Perceptual hysteresis can be defined as the enduring influence of the recent past on current perception. Here, hysteresis was investigated in a basic auditory task: pitch comparisons between successive tones. On each trial, listeners were presented with pairs of tones and asked to report the direction of subjective pitch shift, as either "up" or "down." All tones were complexes known as Shepard tones (Shepard, 1964), which comprise several frequency components at octave multiples of a base frequency. The results showed that perceptual judgments were determined both by stimulus-related factors (the interval ratio between the base frequencies within a pair) and by recent context (the intervals in the two previous trials). When tones were presented in ordered sequences, for which the frequency interval between tones was varied in a progressive manner, strong hysteresis was found. In particular, ambiguous stimuli that led to equal probabilities of "up" and "down" responses within a randomized context were almost fully determined within an ordered context. Moreover, hysteresis did not act on the direction of the reported pitch shift, but rather on the perceptual representation of each tone. Thus, hysteresis could be observed within sequences in which listeners varied between "up" and "down" responses, enabling us to largely rule out confounds related to response bias. The strength of the perceptual hysteresis observed suggests that the ongoing context may have a substantial influence on fundamental aspects of auditory perception, such as how we perceive the changes in pitch between successive sounds.

  4. Measure, integral and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Capiński, Marek

    2004-01-01

    Measure, Integral and Probability is a gentle introduction that makes measure and integration theory accessible to the average third-year undergraduate student. The ideas are developed at an easy pace in a form that is suitable for self-study, with an emphasis on clear explanations and concrete examples rather than abstract theory. For this second edition, the text has been thoroughly revised and expanded. New features include: · a substantial new chapter, featuring a constructive proof of the Radon-Nikodym theorem, an analysis of the structure of Lebesgue-Stieltjes measures, the Hahn-Jordan decomposition, and a brief introduction to martingales · key aspects of financial modelling, including the Black-Scholes formula, discussed briefly from a measure-theoretical perspective to help the reader understand the underlying mathematical framework. In addition, further exercises and examples are provided to encourage the reader to become directly involved with the material.

  5. Probabilities for Solar Siblings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valtonen, Mauri; Bajkova, A. T.; Bobylev, V. V.; Mylläri, A.

    2015-02-01

    We have shown previously (Bobylev et al. Astron Lett 37:550-562, 2011) that some of the stars in the solar neighborhood today may have originated in the same star cluster as the Sun, and could thus be called Solar Siblings. In this work we investigate the sensitivity of this result to galactic models and to parameters of these models, and also extend the sample of orbits. There are a number of good candidates for the sibling category, but due to the long period of orbit evolution since the break-up of the birth cluster of the Sun, one can only attach probabilities of membership. We find that up to 10 % (but more likely around 1 %) of the members of the Sun's birth cluster could be still found within 100 pc from the Sun today.

  6. Probabilities for Solar Siblings

    CERN Document Server

    Valtonen, M; Bobylev, V V; Myllari, A

    2015-01-01

    We have shown previously (Bobylev et al 2011) that some of the stars in the Solar neighborhood today may have originated in the same star cluster as the Sun, and could thus be called Solar Siblings. In this work we investigate the sensitivity of this result to Galactic models and to parameters of these models, and also extend the sample of orbits. There are a number of good candidates for the Sibling category, but due to the long period of orbit evolution since the break-up of the birth cluster of the Sun, one can only attach probabilities of membership. We find that up to 10% (but more likely around 1 %) of the members of the Sun's birth cluster could be still found within 100 pc from the Sun today.

  7. Emptiness Formation Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Nicholas; Ng, Stephen; Starr, Shannon

    2016-08-01

    We present rigorous upper and lower bounds on the emptiness formation probability for the ground state of a spin-1/2 Heisenberg XXZ quantum spin system. For a d-dimensional system we find a rate of decay of the order {exp(-c L^{d+1})} where L is the sidelength of the box in which we ask for the emptiness formation event to occur. In the {d=1} case this confirms previous predictions made in the integrable systems community, though our bounds do not achieve the precision predicted by Bethe ansatz calculations. On the other hand, our bounds in the case {d ≥ 2} are new. The main tools we use are reflection positivity and a rigorous path integral expansion, which is a variation on those previously introduced by Toth, Aizenman-Nachtergaele and Ueltschi.

  8. Learning unbelievable marginal probabilities

    CERN Document Server

    Pitkow, Xaq; Miller, Ken D

    2011-01-01

    Loopy belief propagation performs approximate inference on graphical models with loops. One might hope to compensate for the approximation by adjusting model parameters. Learning algorithms for this purpose have been explored previously, and the claim has been made that every set of locally consistent marginals can arise from belief propagation run on a graphical model. On the contrary, here we show that many probability distributions have marginals that cannot be reached by belief propagation using any set of model parameters or any learning algorithm. We call such marginals `unbelievable.' This problem occurs whenever the Hessian of the Bethe free energy is not positive-definite at the target marginals. All learning algorithms for belief propagation necessarily fail in these cases, producing beliefs or sets of beliefs that may even be worse than the pre-learning approximation. We then show that averaging inaccurate beliefs, each obtained from belief propagation using model parameters perturbed about some le...

  9. Neuroelectrical Correlates of Trustworthiness and Dominance Judgments Related to the Observation of Political Candidates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Vecchiato

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The present research investigates the neurophysiological activity elicited by fast observations of faces of real candidates during simulated political elections. We used simultaneous recording of electroencephalographic (EEG signals as well as galvanic skin response (GSR and heart rate (HR as measurements of central and autonomic nervous systems. Twenty healthy subjects were asked to give judgments on dominance, trustworthiness, and a preference of vote related to the politicians’ faces. We used high-resolution EEG techniques to map statistical differences of power spectral density (PSD cortical activity onto a realistic head model as well as partial directed coherence (PDC and graph theory metrics to estimate the functional connectivity networks and investigate the role of cortical regions of interest (ROIs. Behavioral results revealed that judgment of dominance trait is the most predictive of the outcome of the simulated elections. Statistical comparisons related to PSD and PDC values highlighted an asymmetry in the activation of frontal cortical areas associated with the valence of the judged trait as well as to the probability to cast the vote. Overall, our results highlight the existence of cortical EEG features which are correlated with the prediction of vote and with the judgment of trustworthy and dominant faces.

  10. Generating human reliability estimates using expert judgment. Volume 1. Main report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Comer, M.K.; Seaver, D.A.; Stillwell, W.G.; Gaddy, C.D.

    1984-11-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is conducting a research program to determine the practicality, acceptability, and usefulness of several different methods for obtaining human reliability data and estimates that can be used in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). One method, investigated as part of this overall research program, uses expert judgment to generate human error probability (HEP) estimates and associated uncertainty bounds. The project described in this document evaluated two techniques for using expert judgment: paired comparisons and direct numerical estimation. Volume 1 of this report provides a brief overview of the background of the project, the procedure for using psychological scaling techniques to generate HEP estimates and conclusions from evaluation of the techniques. Results of the evaluation indicate that techniques using expert judgment should be given strong consideration for use in developing HEP estimates. In addition, HEP estimates for 35 tasks related to boiling water reactors (BMRs) were obtained as part of the evaluation. These HEP estimates are also included in the report.

  11. Neuroelectrical correlates of trustworthiness and dominance judgments related to the observation of political candidates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vecchiato, Giovanni; Toppi, Jlenia; Maglione, Anton Giulio; Olejarczyk, Elzbieta; Astolfi, Laura; Mattia, Donatella; Colosimo, Alfredo; Babiloni, Fabio

    2014-01-01

    The present research investigates the neurophysiological activity elicited by fast observations of faces of real candidates during simulated political elections. We used simultaneous recording of electroencephalographic (EEG) signals as well as galvanic skin response (GSR) and heart rate (HR) as measurements of central and autonomic nervous systems. Twenty healthy subjects were asked to give judgments on dominance, trustworthiness, and a preference of vote related to the politicians' faces. We used high-resolution EEG techniques to map statistical differences of power spectral density (PSD) cortical activity onto a realistic head model as well as partial directed coherence (PDC) and graph theory metrics to estimate the functional connectivity networks and investigate the role of cortical regions of interest (ROIs). Behavioral results revealed that judgment of dominance trait is the most predictive of the outcome of the simulated elections. Statistical comparisons related to PSD and PDC values highlighted an asymmetry in the activation of frontal cortical areas associated with the valence of the judged trait as well as to the probability to cast the vote. Overall, our results highlight the existence of cortical EEG features which are correlated with the prediction of vote and with the judgment of trustworthy and dominant faces.

  12. Neuroelectrical Correlates of Trustworthiness and Dominance Judgments Related to the Observation of Political Candidates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vecchiato, Giovanni; Toppi, Jlenia; Maglione, Anton Giulio; Olejarczyk, Elzbieta; Astolfi, Laura; Mattia, Donatella; Colosimo, Alfredo; Babiloni, Fabio

    2014-01-01

    The present research investigates the neurophysiological activity elicited by fast observations of faces of real candidates during simulated political elections. We used simultaneous recording of electroencephalographic (EEG) signals as well as galvanic skin response (GSR) and heart rate (HR) as measurements of central and autonomic nervous systems. Twenty healthy subjects were asked to give judgments on dominance, trustworthiness, and a preference of vote related to the politicians' faces. We used high-resolution EEG techniques to map statistical differences of power spectral density (PSD) cortical activity onto a realistic head model as well as partial directed coherence (PDC) and graph theory metrics to estimate the functional connectivity networks and investigate the role of cortical regions of interest (ROIs). Behavioral results revealed that judgment of dominance trait is the most predictive of the outcome of the simulated elections. Statistical comparisons related to PSD and PDC values highlighted an asymmetry in the activation of frontal cortical areas associated with the valence of the judged trait as well as to the probability to cast the vote. Overall, our results highlight the existence of cortical EEG features which are correlated with the prediction of vote and with the judgment of trustworthy and dominant faces. PMID:25214884

  13. (Process Models of Counselor Judgment: Proposal and Reactions.)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strohmer, Douglas C.; And Others

    1982-01-01

    Studied competing process models of counselors' clinical judgment for their capacity to account for variance in prognostic judgments and further tested for parsimony. Patton discusses problems of logic and data analysis in the model's formulation. Provides Stromer's response to the critique. (RC)

  14. Mediational Inferences in the Process of Counselor Judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, Richard F.; And Others

    1983-01-01

    Replicates research on the process of moving from observations to clinical judgments. Counselors (N=20) made status inferences, attributional inferences, and diagnostic classification of clients based on case folders. Results suggest the clinical judgment process was stagewise mediated, and attributional inferences had little direct impact on…

  15. Moral Judgment Competence of Medical Students: A Transcultural Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feitosa, Helvécio Neves; Rego, Sergio; Bataglia, Patricia Unger Raphael; Sancho, Karlos Frederico Castelo Branco; Rego, Guilhermina; Nunes, Rui

    2013-01-01

    The authors conducted a cross-sectional short-term study using Lind's Moral Judgment Test (MJT) to compare moral judgment competence (C-score) among students from a medical school in the Northeast region of Brazil and a medical school in the Northern region of Portugal. This study compares the C-scores of groups in the first and eighth…

  16. Moral Judgment Competence of Medical Students: A Transcultural Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feitosa, Helvécio Neves; Rego, Sergio; Bataglia, Patricia Unger Raphael; Sancho, Karlos Frederico Castelo Branco; Rego, Guilhermina; Nunes, Rui

    2013-01-01

    The authors conducted a cross-sectional short-term study using Lind's Moral Judgment Test (MJT) to compare moral judgment competence (C-score) among students from a medical school in the Northeast region of Brazil and a medical school in the Northern region of Portugal. This study compares the C-scores of groups in the first and eighth semesters…

  17. Moral judgment as information processing: an integrative review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guglielmo, Steve

    2015-01-01

    How do humans make moral judgments about others’ behavior? This article reviews dominant models of moral judgment, organizing them within an overarching framework of information processing. This framework poses two distinct questions: (1) What input information guides moral judgments? and (2) What psychological processes generate these judgments? Information Models address the first question, identifying critical information elements (including causality, intentionality, and mental states) that shape moral judgments. A subclass of Biased Information Models holds that perceptions of these information elements are themselves driven by prior moral judgments. Processing Models address the second question, and existing models have focused on the relative contribution of intuitive versus deliberative processes. This review organizes existing moral judgment models within this framework and critically evaluates them on empirical and theoretical grounds; it then outlines a general integrative model grounded in information processing, and concludes with conceptual and methodological suggestions for future research. The information-processing framework provides a useful theoretical lens through which to organize extant and future work in the rapidly growing field of moral judgment. PMID:26579022

  18. Text cohesion and metacomprehension: immediate and delayed judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefèvre, N; Lories, G

    2004-12-01

    In three experiments, we examined comprehension judgments made after a piece of text had been read. We propose that such metacognitive judgments are based on the content of working memory at the exact moment of assessment. Generally speaking, this working metacognition hypothesis is in agreement with Koriat's cue utilization approach, which implies that different elements of information will be available (and used) depending on the moment at which a judgment is made. More specifically, our hypothesis focuses on the management of working memory during reading as a cause for cue (un)availability. In support of these views, the results of Experiment 1 showed that a cohesion manipulation affecting the comprehension of specific paragraphs influences judgments only on these paragraphs, and not on judgments on the whole text. In Experiment 2, we showed that an interfering task that takes place just before this paragraph judgment is made wipes out this cohesion effect. Experiment 3 showed, on the other hand, that the whole-text judgment may, nevertheless, be affected by text cohesion, provided that the readers keep an access to the text when the judgment is made. These results support the idea that working memory management makes different cues available for metacognitive ratings at different delays.

  19. Judgments of Vocal Affect by Language-Delayed Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berk, Sybil

    1983-01-01

    The judgment of vocal affect was studied in 19 language delayed children and 19 children with normal language. The children identified utterances spoken in an angry, happy, or sad tone of voice. The language delayed children made significantly fewer correct judgments. (Author/SEW)

  20. The modular neuroarchitecture of social judgments on faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bzdok, Danilo; Langner, Robert; Hoffstaedter, Felix; Turetsky, Bruce I; Zilles, Karl; Eickhoff, Simon B

    2012-04-01

    Face-derived information on trustworthiness and attractiveness crucially influences social interaction. It is, however, unclear to what degree the functional neuroanatomy of these complex social judgments on faces reflects genuine social versus basic emotional and cognitive processing. To disentangle social from nonsocial contributions, we assessed commonalities and differences between the functional networks activated by judging social (trustworthiness, attractiveness), emotional (happiness), and cognitive (age) facial traits. Relative to happiness and age evaluations, both trustworthiness and attractiveness judgments selectively activated the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex and inferior frontal gyrus, forming a core social cognition network. Moreover, they also elicited a higher amygdalar response than even the emotional control condition. Both social judgments differed, however, in their top-down modulation of face-sensitive regions: trustworthiness judgments recruited the posterior superior temporal sulcus, whereas attractiveness judgments recruited the fusiform gyrus. Social and emotional judgments converged and, therefore, likely interact in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex. Social and age judgments, on the other hand, commonly engaged the anterior insula, inferior parietal cortex, and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, which appear to subserve more cognitive aspects in social evaluation. These findings demonstrate the modularity of social judgments on human faces by separating the neural correlates of social, face-specific, emotional, and cognitive processing facets.

  1. (Process Models of Counselor Judgment: Proposal and Reactions.)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strohmer, Douglas C.; And Others

    1982-01-01

    Studied competing process models of counselors' clinical judgment for their capacity to account for variance in prognostic judgments and further tested for parsimony. Patton discusses problems of logic and data analysis in the model's formulation. Provides Stromer's response to the critique. (RC)

  2. Leadership Styles and Moral Judgment Competence of Community College Personnel

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFadden, Cheryl; Miller, Brian; Sypawka, William; Clay, Maria; Hoover-Plonk, Shelly

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated the convergence of leadership styles and moral judgment competence of community college personnel participating in a leadership institute using the Leadership Orientation Instrument (Bolman & Deal, 1984) and the Moral Judgment Test (Lind, 1978). Results indicated that the human resource and structural frames were the…

  3. True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…

  4. Plausibility Judgments in Conceptual Change and Epistemic Cognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Doug; Nussbaum, E. Michael; Sinatra, Gale M.

    2016-01-01

    Plausibility judgments rarely have been addressed empirically in conceptual change research. Recent research, however, suggests that these judgments may be pivotal to conceptual change about certain topics where a gap exists between what scientists and laypersons find plausible. Based on a philosophical and empirical foundation, this article…

  5. Intuitive and Deliberate Judgments Are Based on Common Principles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruglanski, Arie W.; Gigerenzer, Gerd

    2011-01-01

    A popular distinction in cognitive and social psychology has been between "intuitive" and "deliberate" judgments. This juxtaposition has aligned in dual-process theories of reasoning associative, unconscious, effortless, heuristic, and suboptimal processes (assumed to foster intuitive judgments) versus rule-based, conscious, effortful, analytic,…

  6. True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…

  7. Moral judgment as information processing: an integrative review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guglielmo, Steve

    2015-01-01

    How do humans make moral judgments about others' behavior? This article reviews dominant models of moral judgment, organizing them within an overarching framework of information processing. This framework poses two distinct questions: (1) What input information guides moral judgments? and (2) What psychological processes generate these judgments? Information Models address the first question, identifying critical information elements (including causality, intentionality, and mental states) that shape moral judgments. A subclass of Biased Information Models holds that perceptions of these information elements are themselves driven by prior moral judgments. Processing Models address the second question, and existing models have focused on the relative contribution of intuitive versus deliberative processes. This review organizes existing moral judgment models within this framework and critically evaluates them on empirical and theoretical grounds; it then outlines a general integrative model grounded in information processing, and concludes with conceptual and methodological suggestions for future research. The information-processing framework provides a useful theoretical lens through which to organize extant and future work in the rapidly growing field of moral judgment.

  8. 40 CFR 94.221 - Application of good engineering judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... judgment in making all decisions called for under this part, including but not limited to selections... was not made in good faith, or that the decision was not made with a rational basis, the Administrator... Administrator may reject any such decision by a manufacturer if it is not based on good engineering judgment...

  9. Savage s Concept of Probability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    熊卫

    2003-01-01

    Starting with personal preference, Savage [3] constructs a foundation theory for probability from the qualitative probability to the quantitative probability and to utility. There are some profound logic connections between three steps in Savage's theory; that is, quantitative concepts properly represent qualitative concepts. Moreover, Savage's definition of subjective probability is in accordance with probability theory, and the theory gives us a rational decision model only if we assume that the weak ...

  10. Probability Theory without Bayes' Rule

    OpenAIRE

    Rodriques, Samuel G.

    2014-01-01

    Within the Kolmogorov theory of probability, Bayes' rule allows one to perform statistical inference by relating conditional probabilities to unconditional probabilities. As we show here, however, there is a continuous set of alternative inference rules that yield the same results, and that may have computational or practical advantages for certain problems. We formulate generalized axioms for probability theory, according to which the reverse conditional probability distribution P(B|A) is no...

  11. Thurstonian Covariance and Correlation Structures for Multiple Judgment Paired Comparison Data

    OpenAIRE

    ALBERTO MAYDEU

    2003-01-01

    (WP 04/03 Clave pdf) Thurstone´s (1927) is not a proper model for multiple judgment paired comparison data as it assigns zero probabilities to all intransitive patterns. To obtain a proper model, Takane (1987) extended Thurstone´s model by adding a vector of pair specific random errors. We investigate an unrestricted Thurstone-Takane model when (a) the variances of the paired specific errors are assumed to be equal, and (b) when they are assumed to be unequal. We also consider a new model, ...

  12. Air Target Fuzzy Pattern Recognition Threat-Judgment Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    童幼堂; 王建明

    2003-01-01

    Threat-judgment is a complicated fuzzy inference problem. Up to now no relevant unified theory and measuring standard have been developed. It is very difficult to establish a threat-judgment model with high reliability in the air defense system for the naval warships. Air target threat level judgment is an important component in naval warship combat command decision-making systems. According to the threat level judgment of air targets during the air defense of single naval warship, a fuzzy pattern recognition model for judging the threat from air targets is established. Then an algorithm for identifying the parameters in the model is presented. The model has an adaptive feature and can dynamically update its parameters according to the state change of the attacking targets and the environment. The method presented here can be used for the air defense system threat judgment in the naval warships.

  13. Ethical Ideology and Ethical Judgments of Accounting Practitioners in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suhaiza Ismail

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper intends to explore the ethical ideology and ethical judgments of accounting practitioners in Malaysia. The objectives of this study are twofold. First, the paper intends to examine the factors that contribute to the different ethical ideology among Malaysian accounting practitioners. Second, it aims to investigate the influence of demographic factors and ethical ideology on ethical judgments of accounting practitioners. The study used Forsyth’s (1980 Ethics Position Questionnaire instrument to examine the ethical ideology of the accountants and adopted ethics vignettes used by Emerson et al. (2007 to assess the ethical judgments of the respondents. From the statistical analysis, this study found that age and gender have a significant impact on ethical judgment but not on ethical ideology. In addition, idealism and relativism have a significant influence on ethical judgment, especially in a legally unethical situation.

  14. Systematic Underreproduction of Time Is Independent of Judgment Certainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Riemer

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We recently proposed that systematic underreproduction of time is caused by a general judgment bias towards earlier responses, instead of reflecting a genuine misperception of temporal intervals. Here we tested whether this bias can be explained by the uncertainty associated with temporal judgments. We applied transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS to inhibit neuronal processes in the right posterior parietal cortex (PPC and tested its effects on time discrimination and reproduction tasks. The results show increased certainty for discriminative time judgments after PPC inhibition. They suggest that the right PPC plays an inhibitory role for time perception, possibly by mediating the multisensory integration between temporal stimuli and other quantities. Importantly, this increased judgment certainty had no influence on the degree of temporal underreproduction. We conclude that the systematic underreproduction of time is not caused by uncertainty for temporal judgments.

  15. Selective impairment of cognitive empathy for moral judgment in adults with high functioning autism

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gleichgerrcht, Ezequiel; Torralva, Teresa; Rattazzi, Alexia; Marenco, Victoria; Roca, María; Manes, Facundo

    2013-01-01

    .... the utilitarian judgment, and an emotional aversion to harm, i.e. the deontological judgment. In the present study, we investigated moral judgment in adult individuals with high functioning autism/Asperger syndrome (HFA...

  16. Grammaticality judgments in autism: deviance or delay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eigsti, Inge-Marie; Bennetto, Loisa

    2009-11-01

    Language in autism has been the subject of intense interest, because communication deficits are central to the disorder, and because autism serves as an arena for testing theories of language acquisition. High-functioning older children with autism are often considered to have intact grammatical abilities, despite pragmatic impairments. Given the heterogeneity in language skills at younger ages, this assumption merits further investigation. Participants with autism (n=21, aged nine to seventeen years), matched on chronological age, receptive vocabulary and IQ, to 22 typically developing individuals, completed a grammaticality judgment task. Participants with autism were significantly less sensitive than controls, specifically for third person singular and present progressive marking. Performance interacted with sentence length, with lower sensitivity to errors occurring at the end of the longest stimulus sentences. Performance sensitivity was associated with onset of single word and phrase speech, and with severity of autistic symptomatology. Implications of findings are discussed.

  17. Exemplary Goods: Exemplars as Judgment Devices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erwin Dekker

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this article the notion of exemplars is developed to study valuation processes. It argues that exemplary goods are an important "judgment device" on markets of singular goods, which has so far been ignored in the literature. The article draws on Hannah Arendt's theory of exemplars, as well as literature from the philosophy of science and psychology to construct the new concept. Exemplars are particular goods that become focal points in markets that facilitate the mutual coordination of consumers and producers. From these exemplars norms of quality emerge which are otherwise hard or impossible to explicate. These exemplars and the norms of quality which emerge from them help shape the expectations of both producers and consumers with regard to new goods that are introduced to the market. Two illustrative cases, on classic literature and hip-hop music, are presented to demonstrate the relevance of the concept.

  18. Does cleanliness influence moral judgments? Response effort moderates the effect of cleanliness priming on moral judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jason L

    2014-01-01

    Whether cleanliness influences moral judgments has recently become a topic of debate in the psychological literature. After the initial report that activating the notion of physical purity can result in less severe moral judgments (Schnall et al., 2008a), a direct replication (Johnson et al., 2014a) with much larger sample sizes failed to yield similar findings. The current paper examines the possibility that only non-conscious activation of the cleanliness concept, as achieved in participants with low response effort on priming materials, can produce the expected effect. An online replication (Study 1, N = 214) provided evidence that, when participants exerted low (yet still acceptable) levels of response effort to the experimental material, cleanliness priming led to more lenient moral judgments than neutral priming. An online experiment (Study 2, N = 440; replicated in Study 2a, N = 436) manipulating participants' effort on the priming task (low vs. high) supported the hypothesized mechanism. Specifically, respondents in the low response effort group were instructed to complete the priming task as quickly as possible without too much attention, and the cleanliness priming resulted in less extreme moral judgments than the neutral condition as expected. In contrast, respondents in the high response effort group were instructed to perform to the best of their ability on the priming task, with a non-significant difference on moral ratings between cleanliness and neutral conditions. In addition to helping resolve the controversy regarding the cleanliness hypothesis, the current paper calls into attention the role of response effort in the execution and replication of priming studies.

  19. Probability state modeling theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagwell, C Bruce; Hunsberger, Benjamin C; Herbert, Donald J; Munson, Mark E; Hill, Beth L; Bray, Chris M; Preffer, Frederic I

    2015-07-01

    As the technology of cytometry matures, there is mounting pressure to address two major issues with data analyses. The first issue is to develop new analysis methods for high-dimensional data that can directly reveal and quantify important characteristics associated with complex cellular biology. The other issue is to replace subjective and inaccurate gating with automated methods that objectively define subpopulations and account for population overlap due to measurement uncertainty. Probability state modeling (PSM) is a technique that addresses both of these issues. The theory and important algorithms associated with PSM are presented along with simple examples and general strategies for autonomous analyses. PSM is leveraged to better understand B-cell ontogeny in bone marrow in a companion Cytometry Part B manuscript. Three short relevant videos are available in the online supporting information for both of these papers. PSM avoids the dimensionality barrier normally associated with high-dimensionality modeling by using broadened quantile functions instead of frequency functions to represent the modulation of cellular epitopes as cells differentiate. Since modeling programs ultimately minimize or maximize one or more objective functions, they are particularly amenable to automation and, therefore, represent a viable alternative to subjective and inaccurate gating approaches.

  20. Probability distributions for magnetotellurics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stodt, John A.

    1982-11-01

    Estimates of the magnetotelluric transfer functions can be viewed as ratios of two complex random variables. It is assumed that the numerator and denominator are governed approximately by a joint complex normal distribution. Under this assumption, probability distributions are obtained for the magnitude, squared magnitude, logarithm of the squared magnitude, and the phase of the estimates. Normal approximations to the distributions are obtained by calculating mean values and variances from error propagation, and the distributions are plotted with their normal approximations for different percentage errors in the numerator and denominator of the estimates, ranging from 10% to 75%. The distribution of the phase is approximated well by a normal distribution for the range of errors considered, while the distribution of the logarithm of the squared magnitude is approximated by a normal distribution for a much larger range of errors than is the distribution of the squared magnitude. The distribution of the squared magnitude is most sensitive to the presence of noise in the denominator of the estimate, in which case the true distribution deviates significantly from normal behavior as the percentage errors exceed 10%. In contrast, the normal approximation to the distribution of the logarithm of the magnitude is useful for errors as large as 75%.

  1. RANDOM VARIABLE WITH FUZZY PROBABILITY

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吕恩琳; 钟佑明

    2003-01-01

    Mathematic description about the second kind fuzzy random variable namely the random variable with crisp event-fuzzy probability was studied. Based on the interval probability and using the fuzzy resolution theorem, the feasible condition about a probability fuzzy number set was given, go a step further the definition arid characters of random variable with fuzzy probability ( RVFP ) and the fuzzy distribution function and fuzzy probability distribution sequence of the RVFP were put forward. The fuzzy probability resolution theorem with the closing operation of fuzzy probability was given and proved. The definition and characters of mathematical expectation and variance of the RVFP were studied also. All mathematic description about the RVFP has the closing operation for fuzzy probability, as a result, the foundation of perfecting fuzzy probability operation method is laid.

  2. A Tale of Two Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.

  3. Introduction to probability with R

    CERN Document Server

    Baclawski, Kenneth

    2008-01-01

    FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable

  4. A first course in probability

    CERN Document Server

    Ross, Sheldon

    2014-01-01

    A First Course in Probability, Ninth Edition, features clear and intuitive explanations of the mathematics of probability theory, outstanding problem sets, and a variety of diverse examples and applications. This book is ideal for an upper-level undergraduate or graduate level introduction to probability for math, science, engineering and business students. It assumes a background in elementary calculus.

  5. Conditionals, probability, and belief revision

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voorbraak, F.

    1989-01-01

    A famous result obtained in the mid-seventies by David Lewis shows that a straightforward interpretation of probabilities of conditionals as conditional probabilities runs into serious trouble. In this paper we try to circumvent this trouble by defining extensions of probability functions, called

  6. The facial width-to-height ratio shares stronger links with judgments of aggression than with judgments of trustworthiness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geniole, Shawn N; Molnar, Danielle S; Carré, Justin M; McCormick, Cheryl M

    2014-08-01

    Variation in the facial width-to-height ratio (face ratio) is associated with judgments of aggression and of trustworthiness made by observers when viewing men's faces. Although judgments of aggression and of trustworthiness are correlated, they represent distinct constructs. We thus investigated the hypothesis that judgments of aggression share stronger associations with the face ratio than judgments of trustworthiness, and that judgments of aggression mediate the link between the face ratio and trustworthiness. Across 4 separate studies, involving 129 observers rating subsets of 141 photographs (original photographs of individuals who provided consent for their use) of clean-shaven (65 faces), unshaved (22 faces), or digitized male faces (54 faces; digitized faces were creating using facial modeling software), this hypothesis was supported. The correlations between the face ratio and judgments of aggression were moderate to strong in all 4 studies (rs = .45 to .70). Reaction time was measured in Study 4: Participants judged aggression faster than trustworthiness; thus, temporal precedence also supports the hypothesis that aggression mediates the link between the face ratio and trustworthiness. Sensitivity to the face ratio may therefore be part of a perceptual mechanism specialized to assess aggressiveness rather than trustworthiness in others, likely because of the greater necessity for rapid judgments of aggressive potential than trustworthiness.

  7. The Art of Probability Assignment

    CERN Document Server

    Dimitrov, Vesselin I

    2012-01-01

    The problem of assigning probabilities when little is known is analized in the case where the quanities of interest are physical observables, i.e. can be measured and their values expressed by numbers. It is pointed out that the assignment of probabilities based on observation is a process of inference, involving the use of Bayes' theorem and the choice of a probability prior. When a lot of data is available, the resulting probability are remarkable insensitive to the form of the prior. In the oposite case of scarse data, it is suggested that the probabilities are assigned such that they are the least sensitive to specific variations of the probability prior. In the continuous case this results in a probability assignment rule wich calls for minimizing the Fisher information subject to constraints reflecting all available information. In the discrete case, the corresponding quantity to be minimized turns out to be a Renyi distance between the original and the shifted distribution.

  8. Airborne LIDAR point cloud tower inclination judgment

    Science.gov (United States)

    liang, Chen; zhengjun, Liu; jianguo, Qian

    2016-11-01

    Inclined transmission line towers for the safe operation of the line caused a great threat, how to effectively, quickly and accurately perform inclined judgment tower of power supply company safety and security of supply has played a key role. In recent years, with the development of unmanned aerial vehicles, unmanned aerial vehicles equipped with a laser scanner, GPS, inertial navigation is one of the high-precision 3D Remote Sensing System in the electricity sector more and more. By airborne radar scan point cloud to visually show the whole picture of the three-dimensional spatial information of the power line corridors, such as the line facilities and equipment, terrain and trees. Currently, LIDAR point cloud research in the field has not yet formed an algorithm to determine tower inclination, the paper through the existing power line corridor on the tower base extraction, through their own tower shape characteristic analysis, a vertical stratification the method of combining convex hull algorithm for point cloud tower scarce two cases using two different methods for the tower was Inclined to judge, and the results with high reliability.

  9. Social class rank, essentialism, and punitive judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraus, Michael W; Keltner, Dacher

    2013-08-01

    Recent evidence suggests that perceptions of social class rank influence a variety of social cognitive tendencies, from patterns of causal attribution to moral judgment. In the present studies we tested the hypotheses that upper-class rank individuals would be more likely to endorse essentialist lay theories of social class categories (i.e., that social class is founded in genetically based, biological differences) than would lower-class rank individuals and that these beliefs would decrease support for restorative justice--which seeks to rehabilitate offenders, rather than punish unlawful action. Across studies, higher social class rank was associated with increased essentialism of social class categories (Studies 1, 2, and 4) and decreased support for restorative justice (Study 4). Moreover, manipulated essentialist beliefs decreased preferences for restorative justice (Study 3), and the association between social class rank and class-based essentialist theories was explained by the tendency to endorse beliefs in a just world (Study 2). Implications for how class-based essentialist beliefs potentially constrain social opportunity and mobility are discussed.

  10. Religiosity, Ethical Judgments and Malaysian Muslim Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rusnah Muhamad

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Culture is often cited as one of the powerful determinants in shaping the personality and behaviour of individuals. Religion, being an important element of culture, is seen as playing an important role in determining how people behave in certain situations. Various authors have suggested religion as an important dimension in Malaysian ethical behaviour studies especially for the Malays. Yet this construct is generally ignored or incorporated into other constructs. This study investigates the influence of religious education on the perceptions of unethical business practices among final year students in one of the local universities in Malaysia. In particular, this study examines the impact of education stream on the level of religious commitment among Malay Muslim students and how these two variables influence their ethical judgment. It was found that the level of religiosity is negative and significantly related to the level of tolerant towards unethical business practices. The findings also establish that more students from the religious education stream are found to be more religious and consequently, are less tolerance towards unethical business practices.

  11. Sex Differences in Judgments of Social Desirability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paunonen, Sampo V

    2016-08-01

    This study evaluates sex differences in the perceived desirability of personality behaviors and beliefs. Men and women (N = 149, Mage  = 18.7) judged the social desirability scale values (SDSVs) of 150 personality statements as applied either to a male target or a female target. For comparison, some estimated SDSVs with no target sex specified. A separate sample of 537 respondents endorsed the 150 items via self-report. Raters showed a high consensus in their SDSV judgments within conditions (α = .86 to .90) and no sex-of-rater effects across conditions. Substantial sex-of-target effects (p desirable for one sex but not for the other. The behaviors seen as more (less) desirable when applied to men rather than to women were endorsed more (less) by men than by women in the respondent sample. Similar results were found when no target sex was specified for the SDSV ratings, presumably because judges evaluated the behaviors as applied to a target of their own sex. The present results have important implications for the measurement and reporting of SDSVs, the evaluation of substance versus style in self-reports, and the construction of desirability-reduced personality inventories. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Anchoring in Numeric Judgments of Visual Stimuli.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langeborg, Linda; Eriksson, Mårten

    2016-01-01

    This article investigates effects of anchoring in age estimation and estimation of quantities, two tasks which to different extents are based on visual stimuli. The results are compared to anchoring in answers to classic general knowledge questions that rely on semantic knowledge. Cognitive load was manipulated to explore possible differences between domains. Effects of source credibility, manipulated by differing instructions regarding the selection of anchor values (no information regarding anchor selection, information that the anchors are randomly generated or information that the anchors are answers from an expert) on anchoring were also investigated. Effects of anchoring were large for all types of judgments but were not affected by cognitive load or by source credibility in either one of the researched domains. A main effect of cognitive load on quantity estimations and main effects of source credibility in the two visually based domains indicate that the manipulations were efficient. Implications for theoretical explanations of anchoring are discussed. In particular, because anchoring did not interact with cognitive load, the results imply that the process behind anchoring in visual tasks is predominantly automatic and unconscious.

  13. Probability workshop to be better in probability topic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asmat, Aszila; Ujang, Suriyati; Wahid, Sharifah Norhuda Syed

    2015-02-01

    The purpose of the present study was to examine whether statistics anxiety and attitudes towards probability topic among students in higher education level have an effect on their performance. 62 fourth semester science students were given statistics anxiety questionnaires about their perception towards probability topic. Result indicated that students' performance in probability topic is not related to anxiety level, which means that the higher level in statistics anxiety will not cause lower score in probability topic performance. The study also revealed that motivated students gained from probability workshop ensure that their performance in probability topic shows a positive improvement compared before the workshop. In addition there exists a significance difference in students' performance between genders with better achievement among female students compared to male students. Thus, more initiatives in learning programs with different teaching approaches is needed to provide useful information in improving student learning outcome in higher learning institution.

  14. FOREIGN JUDGMENTS PROJECT OF HAGUE CONFERENCE: FOR A GLOBAL REGIME OF INTERNATIONAL CIRCULATION OF JUDGMENTS ON CIVIL AND COMMERCIAL SUBJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia de Araujo

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The Hague Conference on Private International Law is promoting the adoption of rules designed to circumvent usual obstacles to the international circulation of judgments. The Judgments Project initiated in the nineties aims at mitigating uncertainties and risks associated with the international commerce by setting forth a simple and safe system according to which foreign judgments may circulate from country to country. The purpose of this article is to preserve the historical moment of the negotiations taking place at the Hague, as well as to pinpoint some technical issues raised in the course of the project that may be of general interest to those involved in the subject of international jurisdiction.

  15. Predicting Political Elections from Rapid and Unreflective Face Judgments

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Charles C. Ballew; Alexander Todorov

    2007-01-01

    Here we show that rapid judgments of competence based solely on the facial appearance of candidates predicted the outcomes of gubernatorial elections, the most important elections in the United States...

  16. Memory for incidentally perceived social cues: Effects on person judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pawling, Ralph; Kirkham, Alexander J; Tipper, Steven P; Over, Harriet

    2017-02-01

    Dynamic face cues can be very salient, as when observing sudden shifts of gaze to a new location, or a change of expression from happy to angry. These highly salient social cues influence judgments of another person during the course of an interaction. However, other dynamic cues, such as pupil dilation, are much more subtle, affecting judgments of another person even without awareness. We asked whether such subtle, incidentally perceived, dynamic cues could be encoded in to memory and retrieved at a later time. The current study demonstrates that in some circumstances changes in pupil size in another person are indeed encoded into memory and influence judgments of that individual at a later time. Furthermore, these judgments interact with the perceived trustworthiness of the individual and the nature of the social context. The effect is somewhat variable, however, possibly reflecting individual differences and the inherent ambiguity of pupil dilation/constriction. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  17. Interpersonal orientation and the accuracy of personality judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogt, Dawne S; Colvin, C Randall

    2003-04-01

    Are those who are more invested in developing and maintaining interpersonal relationships able to provide more accurate judgments of others' personality characteristics? Previous research has produced mixed findings. In the present study, a conceptual framework was presented and methods were used that overcome many of the problems encountered in past research on judgmental accuracy. On four occasions, 102 judges watched a 12-min videotaped dyadic interaction and described the personality of a designated target person. Judges' personality characteristics were described by self, parents, and friends. Results revealed that psychological communion was positively associated with judges' accuracy in rating targets' personality characteristics. In addition, whereas women were more communal and provided more accurate judgments than men, the relationship between communion and accuracy held after controlling for the effect of gender. Finally, preliminary findings suggested that interpersonally oriented individuals may sometimes draw on information about themselves and about stereotypical others to facilitate accurate judgments of others.

  18. Low Levels of Empathic Concern Predict Utilitarian Moral Judgment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleichgerrcht, Ezequiel; Young, Liane

    2013-01-01

    Is it permissible to harm one to save many? Classic moral dilemmas are often defined by the conflict between a putatively rational response to maximize aggregate welfare (i.e., the utilitarian judgment) and an emotional aversion to harm (i.e., the non-utilitarian judgment). Here, we address two questions. First, what specific aspect of emotional responding is relevant for these judgments? Second, is this aspect of emotional responding selectively reduced in utilitarians or enhanced in non-utilitarians? The results reveal a key relationship between moral judgment and empathic concern in particular (i.e., feelings of warmth and compassion in response to someone in distress). Utilitarian participants showed significantly reduced empathic concern on an independent empathy measure. These findings therefore reveal diminished empathic concern in utilitarian moral judges. PMID:23593213

  19. Moral judgment reloaded: a moral dilemma validation study

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Christensen, Julia F; Flexas, Albert; Calabrese, Margareta; Gut, Nadine K; Gomila, Antoni

    2014-01-01

    We propose a revised set of moral dilemmas for studies on moral judgment. We selected a total of 46 moral dilemmas available in the literature and fine-tuned them in terms of four conceptual factors...

  20. Experienced and novice officers' generalized communication suspicion and veracity judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masip, Jaume; Alonso, Hernán; Herrero, Carmen; Garrido, Eugenio

    2016-04-01

    Deception detection research has shown that police officers are less truth-biased and make their veracity judgments with greater confidence than do nonofficers. Here we examined nonofficers, novice officers, and experienced officers' response bias, confidence, and generalized communicative suspicion. In Experiment 1, novice officers aligned with nonofficers in terms of both generalized communicative suspicion scores and confidence, with both these groups scoring lower than experienced officers. Generalized communicative suspicion scores and veracity judgments were not significantly related for either sample. However, novice officers aligned with experienced officers in terms of judgments: both police groups were lie-biased, whereas nonofficers were truth-biased. These findings suggest that unlike experienced officers, who have embraced the police culture to a greater degree, novice officers are not dispositionally suspicious (generalized communicative suspicion); however, they are able to mirror the prototypical police behavior (deception judgments) in police-related contexts. Experiment 2 supported these notions.

  1. Belief Merging and Judgment Aggregation in Fuzzy Setting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ismat Beg

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We explore how judgment aggregation and belief merging in the framework of fuzzy logic can help resolve the “Doctrinal Paradox.” We also illustrate the use of fuzzy aggregation functions in social choice theory.

  2. Damage to ventromedial prefrontal cortex impairs judgment of harmful intent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Liane; Bechara, Antoine; Tranel, Daniel; Damasio, Hanna; Hauser, Marc; Damasio, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    Summary Moral judgments, whether delivered in ordinary experience or in the courtroom, depend on our ability to infer intentions. We forgive unintentional or accidental harms and condemn failed attempts to harm. Prior work demonstrates that patients with damage to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPC) deliver abnormal judgments in response to moral dilemmas, and that these patients are especially impaired in triggering emotional responses to inferred or abstract events (e.g., intentions), as opposed to real or actual outcomes. We therefore predicted that VMPC patients would deliver abnormal moral judgments of harmful intentions in the absence of harmful outcomes, as in failed attempts to harm. This prediction was confirmed in the current study: VMPC patients judged attempted harms including attempted murder as more morally permissible relative to controls. These results highlight the critical role of the VMPC in processing harmful intent for moral judgment. PMID:20346759

  3. Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballentine, Leslie E.

    2016-08-01

    Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

  4. Kant's Critique of Judgment and the Scientific Investigation of Matter

    OpenAIRE

    Daniel Rothbart; Irmgard Scherer

    1997-01-01

    Kant's theory of judgment establishes the conceptual framework for understanding the subtle relationships between the experimental scientist, the modern instrument, and nature's atomic particles. The principle of purposiveness which governs judgment has also a role in implicitly guiding modern experimental science. In Part 1 we explore Kant's philosophy of science as he shows how knowledge of material nature and unobservable entities is possible. In Part 2 we examine the way in which Kant's t...

  5. Research Workshop on Expert Judgment, Human Error, and Intelligent Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Silverman, Barry G.

    1993-01-01

    This workshop brought together 20 computer scientists, psychologists, and human-computer interaction (HCI) researchers to exchange results and views on human error and judgment bias. Human error is typically studied when operators undertake actions, but judgment bias is an issue in thinking rather than acting. Both topics are generally ignored by the HCI community, which is interested in designs that eliminate human error and bias tendencies. As a result, almost no one at the workshop had met...

  6. Hidden Variables or Positive Probabilities?

    CERN Document Server

    Rothman, T; Rothman, Tony

    2001-01-01

    Despite claims that Bell's inequalities are based on the Einstein locality condition, or equivalent, all derivations make an identical mathematical assumption: that local hidden-variable theories produce a set of positive-definite probabilities for detecting a particle with a given spin orientation. The standard argument is that because quantum mechanics assumes that particles are emitted in a superposition of states the theory cannot produce such a set of probabilities. We examine a paper by Eberhard who claims to show that a generalized Bell inequality, the CHSH inequality, can be derived solely on the basis of the locality condition, without recourse to hidden variables. We point out that he nonetheless assumes a set of positive-definite probabilities, which supports the claim that hidden variables or "locality" is not at issue here, positive-definite probabilities are. We demonstrate that quantum mechanics does predict a set of probabilities that violate the CHSH inequality; however these probabilities ar...

  7. Applied probability and stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Sumita, Ushio

    1999-01-01

    Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...

  8. PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  9. PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  10. [Beauty judgment: review of the literature].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faure, Jacques; Bolender, Yves

    2014-03-01

    Esthetic judgments are surely subjective, but as surely, that does not preclude them being studied objectively through rigorous scientific methods. The factual basis of a science of esthetics is not to settle whether some person or image is "objectively beautiful" but rather to determine whether some representative set or sets of individuals judge or experience him/her/it as beautiful or unattractive. The aim of this paper is to review the definitional, theoretical and methodological aspects pertaining to the perception of facial/dental attractiveness by a group of representative individuals. The first part lays down the basic principles of the perception of facial/dental attractiveness: the perception involves a jury, a field of investigation and a test providing quantitative data; the following general determinants of beauty perception are reviewed: the average morphology, the judge's cultural background, the numerology, the judge's ethnical origin. Indirect determinants are the dentition, the osseous architecture and the muscular envelope. Some disruptive factors might alter the judges' facial perception. They might be qualified as either peripheral to the face or psycho-social factors. Peripheral factors include hair style and color, skin hue, wrinkles, lips color... Psycho-social factors cover the personality of the subject being evaluated, his/her intelligence or behavior. The second part deals specifically with the methodology used to determine facial attractiveness and to correlate this latter with a specific morphology. Typically such a study aims to determine average esthetic preferences for some set of visual displays among a particular jury, given a specific task to judge esthetic quality or qualities. The sample being studied, the displays, the jury or jurys, the rating procedure must all be specified prior to collecting data. A specific emphasis will be given to the rating process and the associated morphometrics, the ultimate goal being to

  11. Quantification of health by scaling similarity judgments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander M M Arons

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: A new methodology is introduced to scale health states on an interval scale based on similarity responses. It could be well suited for valuation of health states on specific regions of the health continuum that are problematic when applying conventional valuation techniques. These regions are the top-end, bottom-end, and states around 'dead'. METHODS: Three samples of approximately 500 respondents were recruited via an online survey. Each sample received a different judgmental task in which similarity data were elicited for the top seven health states in the dementia quality of life instrument (DQI. These states were '111111' (no problems on any domain and six others with some problems (level 2 on one domain. The tasks presented two (dyads, three (triads, or four (quads DQI health states. Similarity data were transformed into interval-level scales with metric and non-metric multidimensional scaling algorithms. The three response tasks were assessed for their feasibility and comprehension. RESULTS: In total 532, 469, and 509 respondents participated in the dyads, triads, and quads tasks respectively. After the scaling procedure, in all three response tasks, the best health state '111111' was positioned at one end of the health-state continuum and state '111211' was positioned at the other. The correlation between the metric scales ranged from 0.73 to 0.95, while the non-metric scales ranged from 0.76 to 1.00, indicating strong to near perfect associations. There were no apparent differences in the reported difficulty of the response tasks, but the triads had the highest number of drop-outs. DISCUSSION: Multidimensional scaling proved to be a feasible method to scale health-state similarity data. The dyads and especially the quads response tasks warrant further investigation, as these tasks provided the best indications of respondent comprehension.

  12. Zum Ausdruck der Bewertung in deutschen und litauischen gerichtlichen Entscheidungen | Expression of evaluation in German and Lithuanian court judgments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virginija Masiulionytė

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the expression of evaluation in German and Lithuanian court judgments in civil cases. The purpose is to analyze lexical and grammatical devices, used by the court – the source of evaluation in this text type – in its judgments to express its opinion towards certain objects of evaluation. The analyzed corpus consists of 10 randomly selected court judgments in German (44 522 words in total and 10 in Lithuanian (38 347 words in total. The actual scope of the paper is a particular part of the judgments, namely, the grounds, in which the court examines the suit, pleadings of the parties, certain issues, facts and circumstances relevant for the decision etc. and gives its reasons for the decision. The respective parts of court decisions make up a subcorpus of 29 274 words in German and 18 693 words in Lithuanian. The main focus of the research are the aspects of evaluation, i. e. particular attributes of the objects evaluated. It has been found that in the analyzed court judgments the objects are evaluated in terms of success, merits, admissibility, veracity, reasonableness, persuasiveness, suitability, extent, probability etc. The research shows that lexical devices used in the court judgments in both languages to express the evaluation are typically formed on the same basis, e. g. tikėtina ‘(it is probable’ and tikimybė ‘probability’, abejoti ‘to doubt’ and abejonės ‘doubts’, unangemessen ‘unreasonable’ and Unangemessenheit ‘unreasonableness’; zweifelhaft ‘dubious’, zweifelsfrei ‘free of doubt’ and Zweifel ‘doubt’. In comparison to the German court judgments analyzed, Lithuanian court judgments contain an wider diversity of specific lexical constructions containing verba dicendi and verba putandi, in which the evaluating subject is encoded explicitly. The constructions found include the following: teismas sprendžia, kad/jog ‘the court rules that’, teismas laiko, kad ‘the court

  13. Influences of environment and personality on cognitive judgment bias in chickens

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive processes include biases, such as cognitive judgment bias. Cognitive judgment bias influences how the surrounding is interpreted, and this can differ between individuals. However, thus far no formal framework exists to understand how cognitive judgment bias works. Here I investigated how environmental factors and personality influence cognitive judgment bias in Gallus gallus chicks. First I investigated how two environmental factors affected the cognitive judgment bias of laying hen...

  14. How Reasoning, Judgment, and Decision Making are Colored by Gist-based Intuition: A Fuzzy-Trace Theory Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbin, Jonathan C; Reyna, Valerie F; Weldon, Rebecca B; Brainerd, Charles J

    2015-12-01

    Fuzzy-trace theory distinguishes verbatim (literal, exact) from gist (meaningful) representations, predicting that reliance on gist increases with experience and expertise. Thus, many judgment-and-decision-making biases increase with development, such that cognition is colored by context in ways that violate logical coherence and probability theories. Nevertheless, this increase in gist-based intuition is adaptive: Gist is stable, less sensitive to interference, and easier to manipulate. Moreover, gist captures the functionally significant essence of information, supporting healthier and more robust decision processes. We describe how fuzzy-trace theory accounts for judgment-and-decision making phenomena, predicting the paradoxical arc of these processes with the development of experience and expertise. We present data linking gist memory processes to gist processing in decision making and provide illustrations of gist reliance in medicine, public health, and intelligence analysis.

  15. Understanding Students' Beliefs about Probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konold, Clifford

    The concept of probability is not an easy concept for high school and college students to understand. This paper identifies and analyzes the students' alternative frameworks from the viewpoint of constructivism. There are various interpretations of probability through mathematical history: classical, frequentist, and subjectivist interpretation.…

  16. Expected utility with lower probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

    1994-01-01

    An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...

  17. Varieties of Belief and Probability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.J.N. van Eijck (Jan); S. Ghosh; J. Szymanik

    2015-01-01

    htmlabstractFor reasoning about uncertain situations, we have probability theory, and we have logics of knowledge and belief. How does elementary probability theory relate to epistemic logic and the logic of belief? The paper focuses on the notion of betting belief, and interprets a language for

  18. Landau-Zener Probability Reviewed

    CERN Document Server

    Valencia, C

    2008-01-01

    We examine the survival probability for neutrino propagation through matter with variable density. We present a new method to calculate the level-crossing probability that differs from Landau's method by constant factor, which is relevant in the interpretation of neutrino flux from supernova explosion.

  19. Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions is a collection of short interviews based on 5 questions presented to some of the most influential and prominent scholars in probability and statistics. We hear their views on the fields, aims, scopes, the future direction of research and how their work fits...

  20. A graduate course in probability

    CERN Document Server

    Tucker, Howard G

    2014-01-01

    Suitable for a graduate course in analytic probability, this text requires only a limited background in real analysis. Topics include probability spaces and distributions, stochastic independence, basic limiting options, strong limit theorems for independent random variables, central limit theorem, conditional expectation and Martingale theory, and an introduction to stochastic processes.

  1. Invariant probabilities of transition functions

    CERN Document Server

    Zaharopol, Radu

    2014-01-01

    The structure of the set of all the invariant probabilities and the structure of various types of individual invariant probabilities of a transition function are two topics of significant interest in the theory of transition functions, and are studied in this book. The results obtained are useful in ergodic theory and the theory of dynamical systems, which, in turn, can be applied in various other areas (like number theory). They are illustrated using transition functions defined by flows, semiflows, and one-parameter convolution semigroups of probability measures. In this book, all results on transition probabilities that have been published by the author between 2004 and 2008 are extended to transition functions. The proofs of the results obtained are new. For transition functions that satisfy very general conditions the book describes an ergodic decomposition that provides relevant information on the structure of the corresponding set of invariant probabilities. Ergodic decomposition means a splitting of t...

  2. Linear Positivity and Virtual Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Hartle, J B

    2004-01-01

    We investigate the quantum theory of closed systems based on the linear positivity decoherence condition of Goldstein and Page. A quantum theory of closed systems requires two elements; 1) a condition specifying which sets of histories may be assigned probabilities that are consistent with the rules of probability theory, and 2) a rule for those probabilities. The linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page is the weakest of the general conditions proposed so far. Its general properties relating to exact probability sum rules, time-neutrality, and conservation laws are explored. Its inconsistency with the usual notion of independent subsystems in quantum mechanics is reviewed. Its relation to the stronger condition of medium decoherence necessary for classicality is discussed. The linear positivity of histories in a number of simple model systems is investigated with the aim of exhibiting linearly positive sets of histories that are not decoherent. The utility of extending the notion of probability to i...

  3. Survival probability and ruin probability of a risk model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LUO Jian-hua

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, a new risk model is studied in which the rate of premium income is regarded as a random variable, the arrival of insurance policies is a Poisson process and the process of claim occurring is p-thinning process. The integral representations of the survival probability are gotten. The explicit formula of the survival probability on the infinite interval is obtained in the special casc--exponential distribution.The Lundberg inequality and the common formula of the ruin probability are gotten in terms of some techniques from martingale theory.

  4. Probability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    People much given to gambling usually manage to work out rough-and-ready ways of measuring the likelihood of certain situations so as to know which way to bet their money, and how much. If they did not do this., they would quickly lose all their money to those who did.

  5. Latent Fairness in Adults' Relationship-Based Moral Judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Jian; Liu, Yanchun; Li, Jiafeng

    2015-01-01

    Can adults make fair moral judgments when individuals with whom they have different relationships are involved? The present study explored the fairness of adults' relationship-based moral judgments in two respects by performing three experiments involving 999 participants. In Experiment 1, 65 adults were asked to decide whether to harm a specific person to save five strangers in the footbridge and trolley dilemmas in a within-subject design. The lone potential victim was a relative, a best friend, a person they disliked, a criminal or a stranger. Adults' genetic relatedness to, familiarity with and affective relatedness to the lone potential victims varied. The results indicated that adults made different moral judgments involving the lone potential victims with whom they had different relationships. In Experiment 2, 306 adults responded to the footbridge and trolley dilemmas involving five types of lone potential victims in a within-subject design, and the extent to which they were familiar with and affectively related to the lone potential victim was measured. The results generally replicated those of Experiment 1. In addition, for close individuals, adults' moral judgments were less deontological relative to their familiarity with or positive affect toward these individuals. For individuals they were not close to, adults made deontological choices to a larger extent relative to their unfamiliarity with or negative affect toward these individuals. Moreover, for familiar individuals, the extent to which adults made deontological moral judgments more closely approximated the extent to which they were familiar with the individual. The adults' deontological moral judgments involving unfamiliar individuals more closely approximated their affective relatedness to the individuals. In Experiment 3, 628 adults were asked to make moral judgments with the type of lone potential victim as the between-subject variable. The results generally replicated those of the previous

  6. Latent Fairness in Adults’ Relationship-Based Moral Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Jian; Liu, Yanchun; Li, Jiafeng

    2015-01-01

    Can adults make fair moral judgments when individuals with whom they have different relationships are involved? The present study explored the fairness of adults’ relationship-based moral judgments in two respects by performing three experiments involving 999 participants. In Experiment 1, 65 adults were asked to decide whether to harm a specific person to save five strangers in the footbridge and trolley dilemmas in a within-subject design. The lone potential victim was a relative, a best friend, a person they disliked, a criminal or a stranger. Adults’ genetic relatedness to, familiarity with and affective relatedness to the lone potential victims varied. The results indicated that adults made different moral judgments involving the lone potential victims with whom they had different relationships. In Experiment 2, 306 adults responded to the footbridge and trolley dilemmas involving five types of lone potential victims in a within-subject design, and the extent to which they were familiar with and affectively related to the lone potential victim was measured. The results generally replicated those of Experiment 1. In addition, for close individuals, adults’ moral judgments were less deontological relative to their familiarity with or positive affect toward these individuals. For individuals they were not close to, adults made deontological choices to a larger extent relative to their unfamiliarity with or negative affect toward these individuals. Moreover, for familiar individuals, the extent to which adults made deontological moral judgments more closely approximated the extent to which they were familiar with the individual. The adults’ deontological moral judgments involving unfamiliar individuals more closely approximated their affective relatedness to the individuals. In Experiment 3, 628 adults were asked to make moral judgments with the type of lone potential victim as the between-subject variable. The results generally replicated those of the

  7. Latent Fairness in Adults’ Relationship-Based Moral Judgments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian eHao

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Can adults make fair moral judgments when individuals with whom they have different relationships are involved? The present study explored the fairness of adults’ relationship-based moral judgments in two respects by performing three experiments involving 999 participants. In Experiment 1, 65 adults were asked to decide whether to harm a specific person to save five strangers in the footbridge and trolley dilemmas in a within-subject design. The lone potential victim was a relative, a best friend, a person they disliked, a criminal or a stranger. Adults’ genetic relatedness to, familiarity with and affective relatedness to the lone potential victims varied. The results indicated that adults made different moral judgments involving the lone potential victims with whom they had different relationships. In Experiment 2, 306 adults responded to the footbridge and trolley dilemmas involving five types of lone potential victims in a within-subject design, and the extent to which they were familiar with and affectively related to the lone potential victim was measured. The results generally replicated those of Experiment 1. In addition, for close individuals, adults’ moral judgments were less deontological relative to their familiarity with or positive affect toward these individuals. For individuals they were not close to, adults made deontological choices to a larger extent relative to their unfamiliarity with or negative affect toward these individuals. Moreover, for familiar individuals, the extent to which adults made deontological moral judgments more closely approximated the extent to which they were familiar with the individual. The adults’ deontological moral judgments involving unfamiliar individuals more closely approximated their affective relatedness to the individuals. In Experiment 3, 628 adults were asked to make moral judgments with the type of lone potential victim as the between-subject variable. The results generally

  8. Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

    2011-05-01

    In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Overdistribution illusions: Categorical judgments produce them, confidence ratings reduce them.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brainerd, C J; Nakamura, K; Reyna, V F; Holliday, R E

    2017-01-01

    Overdistribution is a form of memory distortion in which an event is remembered as belonging to too many episodic states, states that are logically or empirically incompatible with each other. We investigated a response formatting method of suppressing 2 basic types of overdistribution, disjunction and conjunction illusions, which parallel some classic illusions in the judgment and decision making literature. In this method, subjects respond to memory probes by rating their confidence that test cues belong to specific episodic states (e.g., presented on List 1, presented on List 2), rather than by making the usual categorical judgments about those states. The central prediction, which was derived from the task calibration principle of fuzzy-trace theory, was that confidence ratings should reduce overdistribution by diminishing subjects' reliance on noncompensatory gist memories. The data of 3 experiments agreed with that prediction. In Experiment 1, there were reliable disjunction illusions with categorical judgments but not with confidence ratings. In Experiment 2, both response formats produced reliable disjunction illusions, but those for confidence ratings were much smaller than those for categorical judgments. In Experiment 3, there were reliable conjunction illusions with categorical judgments but not with confidence ratings. Apropos of recent controversies over confidence-accuracy correlations in memory, such correlations were positive for hits, negative for correct rejections, and the 2 types of correlations were of equal magnitude. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. Moral judgment reloaded: a moral dilemma validation study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Julia F.; Flexas, Albert; Calabrese, Margareta; Gut, Nadine K.; Gomila, Antoni

    2014-01-01

    We propose a revised set of moral dilemmas for studies on moral judgment. We selected a total of 46 moral dilemmas available in the literature and fine-tuned them in terms of four conceptual factors (Personal Force, Benefit Recipient, Evitability, and Intention) and methodological aspects of the dilemma formulation (word count, expression style, question formats) that have been shown to influence moral judgment. Second, we obtained normative codings of arousal and valence for each dilemma showing that emotional arousal in response to moral dilemmas depends crucially on the factors Personal Force, Benefit Recipient, and Intentionality. Third, we validated the dilemma set confirming that people's moral judgment is sensitive to all four conceptual factors, and to their interactions. Results are discussed in the context of this field of research, outlining also the relevance of our RT effects for the Dual Process account of moral judgment. Finally, we suggest tentative theoretical avenues for future testing, particularly stressing the importance of the factor Intentionality in moral judgment. Additionally, due to the importance of cross-cultural studies in the quest for universals in human moral cognition, we provide the new set dilemmas in six languages (English, French, German, Spanish, Catalan, and Danish). The norming values provided here refer to the Spanish dilemma set. PMID:25071621

  11. Music Reading Expertise Selectively Improves Categorical Judgment with Musical Notation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yetta Kwailing Wong

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Different domains of perceptual expertise often lead to different hemispheric engagement (e.g. Kanwisher et al., 1997. Recent work suggests that the neural substrates engaged in musical reading are shifted from left hemisphere novice processing to bilateral processing in experts (Wong & Gauthier, 2010. To relate this shift to behavior, we tested whether music-reading training improves categorical and coordinate perceptual judgments, which are argued to rely on the left and right hemisphere respectively (Kosslyn et al., 1989. Music-reading experts and novices judged whether two sequentially presented music sequences were identical. The notes were either on a staff (categorical or without a staff (coordinate in either trained or untrained (90° rotated orientations. Experts performed better than novices for categorical judgments, and the advantage was larger for the trained than untrained orientation. The two groups performed similarly for coordinate judgments. Music-reading fluency predicted performance in categorical judgments in the trained orientation in experts, while it predicted performance in all conditions in novices. This suggests that music-reading training selectively improves categorical judgments in the trained orientation, while music-reading ability in novices reflects general perceptual ability with notes. Future studies will clarify how these findings are related to the hemispheric shift in music-reading expertise.

  12. The development of moral judgment during nursing education in Finland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auvinen, Jaana; Suominen, Tarja; Leino-Kilpi, Helena; Helkama, Klaus

    2004-10-01

    This study describes moral judgment among first- and last-year nursing students in Finland and examines the effects of ethics teaching on the development of moral judgment. The data for this quantitative cross-sectional study were collected using the Defining Issues Test (DIT), which is based on Kohlberg's theory of moral reasoning stages. The questionnaires were sent to four polytechnics, which offer nursing education in southern Finland. A total of 52 first-year students and 54 last-year students participated. The results showed that students who had had to deal with ethical dilemmas in their practical training had higher moral judgment than students who did not. Last-year students had higher moral judgment than first-year students. Last-year students resorted to principle-based thinking more often than first-year students in resolving DIT dilemmas. The differences between the two groups were statistically significant. The results indicate that nursing education may has an effect upon students' moral judgment.

  13. An ethical facade? Medical students' miscomprehensions of substituted judgment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farr A Curlin

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: We studied how well first-year medical students understand and apply the concept of substituted judgment, following a course on clinical ethics. METHOD: Students submitted essays on one of three ethically controversial scenarios presented in class. One scenario involved a patient who had lost decisional capacity. Through an iterative process of textual analysis, the essays were studied and coded for patterns in the ways students misunderstood or misapplied the principle of substituted judgment. RESULTS: Students correctly articulated course principles regarding patient autonomy, substituted judgment, and non-imposition of physician values. However, students showed misunderstanding by giving doctors the responsibility of balancing the interests of the patient against the interests of the family, by stating doctors and surrogates should be guided primarily by a best-interest standard, and by suggesting that patient autonomy becomes the guiding principle only when patients can no longer express their wishes. CONCLUSION: Students did not appear to internalize or correctly apply the substituted judgment standard, even though they could describe it accurately. This suggests the substituted judgment standard may run counter to students' moral intuitions, making it harder to apply in clinical practice.

  14. Moral judgment reloaded: a moral dilemma validation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Julia F; Flexas, Albert; Calabrese, Margareta; Gut, Nadine K; Gomila, Antoni

    2014-01-01

    We propose a revised set of moral dilemmas for studies on moral judgment. We selected a total of 46 moral dilemmas available in the literature and fine-tuned them in terms of four conceptual factors (Personal Force, Benefit Recipient, Evitability, and Intention) and methodological aspects of the dilemma formulation (word count, expression style, question formats) that have been shown to influence moral judgment. Second, we obtained normative codings of arousal and valence for each dilemma showing that emotional arousal in response to moral dilemmas depends crucially on the factors Personal Force, Benefit Recipient, and Intentionality. Third, we validated the dilemma set confirming that people's moral judgment is sensitive to all four conceptual factors, and to their interactions. Results are discussed in the context of this field of research, outlining also the relevance of our RT effects for the Dual Process account of moral judgment. Finally, we suggest tentative theoretical avenues for future testing, particularly stressing the importance of the factor Intentionality in moral judgment. Additionally, due to the importance of cross-cultural studies in the quest for universals in human moral cognition, we provide the new set dilemmas in six languages (English, French, German, Spanish, Catalan, and Danish). The norming values provided here refer to the Spanish dilemma set.

  15. Moral Judgment Reloaded: A Moral Dilemma validation study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia F. Christensen

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available We propose a revised set of moral dilemmas for studies on moral judgment. We selected a total of 46 moral dilemmas available in the literature and fine-tuned them in terms of four conceptual factors (Personal Force, Benefit Recipient, Evitability and Intention and methodological aspects of the dilemma formulation (word count, expression style, question formats that have been shown to influence moral judgment. Second, we obtained normative codings of arousal and valence for each dilemma showing that emotional arousal in response to moral dilemmas depends crucially on the factors Personal Force, Benefit Recipient, and Intentionality. Third, we validated the dilemma set confirming that people's moral judgment is sensitive to all four conceptual factors, and to their interactions. Results are discussed in the context of this field of research, outlining also the relevance of our RT effects for the Dual Process account of moral judgment. Finally, we suggest tentative theoretical avenues for future testing, particularly stressing the importance of the factor Intentionality in moral judgment. Additionally, due to the importance of cross-cultural studies in the quest for universals in human moral cognition, we provide the new set dilemmas in six languages (English, French, German, Spanish, Catalan and Danish. The norming values provided here refer to the Spanish dilemma set.

  16. Can model-free reinforcement learning explain deontological moral judgments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayars, Alisabeth

    2016-05-01

    Dual-systems frameworks propose that moral judgments are derived from both an immediate emotional response, and controlled/rational cognition. Recently Cushman (2013) proposed a new dual-system theory based on model-free and model-based reinforcement learning. Model-free learning attaches values to actions based on their history of reward and punishment, and explains some deontological, non-utilitarian judgments. Model-based learning involves the construction of a causal model of the world and allows for far-sighted planning; this form of learning fits well with utilitarian considerations that seek to maximize certain kinds of outcomes. I present three concerns regarding the use of model-free reinforcement learning to explain deontological moral judgment. First, many actions that humans find aversive from model-free learning are not judged to be morally wrong. Moral judgment must require something in addition to model-free learning. Second, there is a dearth of evidence for central predictions of the reinforcement account-e.g., that people with different reinforcement histories will, all else equal, make different moral judgments. Finally, to account for the effect of intention within the framework requires certain assumptions which lack support. These challenges are reasonable foci for future empirical/theoretical work on the model-free/model-based framework.

  17. Probability with applications and R

    CERN Document Server

    Dobrow, Robert P

    2013-01-01

    An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language c

  18. Probability Ranking in Vector Spaces

    CERN Document Server

    Melucci, Massimo

    2011-01-01

    The Probability Ranking Principle states that the document set with the highest values of probability of relevance optimizes information retrieval effectiveness given the probabilities are estimated as accurately as possible. The key point of the principle is the separation of the document set into two subsets with a given level of fallout and with the highest recall. The paper introduces the separation between two vector subspaces and shows that the separation yields a more effective performance than the optimal separation into subsets with the same available evidence, the performance being measured with recall and fallout. The result is proved mathematically and exemplified experimentally.

  19. Holographic probabilities in eternal inflation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bousso, Raphael

    2006-11-10

    In the global description of eternal inflation, probabilities for vacua are notoriously ambiguous. The local point of view is preferred by holography and naturally picks out a simple probability measure. It is insensitive to large expansion factors or lifetimes and so resolves a recently noted paradox. Any cosmological measure must be complemented with the probability for observers to emerge in a given vacuum. In lieu of anthropic criteria, I propose to estimate this by the entropy that can be produced in a local patch. This allows for prior-free predictions.

  20. Local Causality, Probability and Explanation

    CERN Document Server

    Healey, Richard A

    2016-01-01

    In papers published in the 25 years following his famous 1964 proof John Bell refined and reformulated his views on locality and causality. Although his formulations of local causality were in terms of probability, he had little to say about that notion. But assumptions about probability are implicit in his arguments and conclusions. Probability does not conform to these assumptions when quantum mechanics is applied to account for the particular correlations Bell argues are locally inexplicable. This account involves no superluminal action and there is even a sense in which it is local, but it is in tension with the requirement that the direct causes and effects of events are nearby.

  1. A philosophical essay on probabilities

    CERN Document Server

    Laplace, Marquis de

    1996-01-01

    A classic of science, this famous essay by ""the Newton of France"" introduces lay readers to the concepts and uses of probability theory. It is of especial interest today as an application of mathematical techniques to problems in social and biological sciences.Generally recognized as the founder of the modern phase of probability theory, Laplace here applies the principles and general results of his theory ""to the most important questions of life, which are, in effect, for the most part, problems in probability."" Thus, without the use of higher mathematics, he demonstrates the application

  2. Diurnal distribution of sunshine probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aydinli, S.

    1982-01-01

    The diurnal distribution of the sunshine probability is essential for the predetermination of average irradiances and illuminances by solar radiation on sloping surfaces. The most meteorological stations have only monthly average values of the sunshine duration available. It is, therefore, necessary to compute the diurnal distribution of sunshine probability starting from the average monthly values. It is shown how the symmetric component of the distribution of the sunshine probability which is a consequence of a ''sidescene effect'' of the clouds can be calculated. The asymmetric components of the sunshine probability depending on the location and the seasons and their influence on the predetermination of the global radiation are investigated and discussed.

  3. Probability representation of classical states

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Man'ko, OV; Man'ko, [No Value; Pilyavets, OV

    2005-01-01

    Probability representation of classical states described by symplectic tomograms is discussed. Tomographic symbols of classical observables which are functions on phase-space are studied. Explicit form of kernel of commutative star-product of the tomographic symbols is obtained.

  4. Introduction to probability and measure

    CERN Document Server

    Parthasarathy, K R

    2005-01-01

    According to a remark attributed to Mark Kac 'Probability Theory is a measure theory with a soul'. This book with its choice of proofs, remarks, examples and exercises has been prepared taking both these aesthetic and practical aspects into account.

  5. Free probability and random matrices

    CERN Document Server

    Mingo, James A

    2017-01-01

    This volume opens the world of free probability to a wide variety of readers. From its roots in the theory of operator algebras, free probability has intertwined with non-crossing partitions, random matrices, applications in wireless communications, representation theory of large groups, quantum groups, the invariant subspace problem, large deviations, subfactors, and beyond. This book puts a special emphasis on the relation of free probability to random matrices, but also touches upon the operator algebraic, combinatorial, and analytic aspects of the theory. The book serves as a combination textbook/research monograph, with self-contained chapters, exercises scattered throughout the text, and coverage of important ongoing progress of the theory. It will appeal to graduate students and all mathematicians interested in random matrices and free probability from the point of view of operator algebras, combinatorics, analytic functions, or applications in engineering and statistical physics.

  6. The probabilities of unique events.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sangeet S Khemlani

    Full Text Available Many theorists argue that the probabilities of unique events, even real possibilities such as President Obama's re-election, are meaningless. As a consequence, psychologists have seldom investigated them. We propose a new theory (implemented in a computer program in which such estimates depend on an intuitive non-numerical system capable only of simple procedures, and a deliberative system that maps intuitions into numbers. The theory predicts that estimates of the probabilities of conjunctions should often tend to split the difference between the probabilities of the two conjuncts. We report two experiments showing that individuals commit such violations of the probability calculus, and corroborating other predictions of the theory, e.g., individuals err in the same way even when they make non-numerical verbal estimates, such as that an event is highly improbable.

  7. Logic, probability, and human reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P

    2015-04-01

    This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction.

  8. Default probabilities and default correlations

    OpenAIRE

    Erlenmaier, Ulrich; Gersbach, Hans

    2001-01-01

    Starting from the Merton framework for firm defaults, we provide the analytics and robustness of the relationship between default correlations. We show that loans with higher default probabilities will not only have higher variances but also higher correlations between loans. As a consequence, portfolio standard deviation can increase substantially when loan default probabilities rise. This result has two important implications. First, relative prices of loans with different default probabili...

  9. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    CERN Document Server

    de Barros, J Acacio

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantum-like response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  10. Three lectures on free probability

    OpenAIRE

    2012-01-01

    These are notes from a three-lecture mini-course on free probability given at MSRI in the Fall of 2010 and repeated a year later at Harvard. The lectures were aimed at mathematicians and mathematical physicists working in combinatorics, probability, and random matrix theory. The first lecture was a staged rediscovery of free independence from first principles, the second dealt with the additive calculus of free random variables, and the third focused on random matrix models.

  11. In praise of clinical judgment: Meehl's forgotten legacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westen, Drew; Weinberger, Joel

    2005-10-01

    Although Paul E. Meehl demonstrated the limits of informal aggregation of data and prognostication by presumed experts, he remained convinced that clinical experience confers expertise of some kind. The authors explore this forgotten side of Meehl's legacy by reconsidering the validity of clinical judgment in its natural context, everyday clinical work. Three domains central to clinical practice are examined: diagnosis, interpretation of meaning, and intervention. It is argued that a more sanguine picture of clinical expertise emerges when the focus shifts from prediction at high levels of inference to (a) judgments at a moderate level of inference, (b) contexts for which clinical training and experience are likely to confer expertise, and (c) conditions that optimize the expression of that expertise (e.g., use of instruments designed for expert observers). The authors conclude by examining domains in which clinical judgment could prove useful in knowledge generation (e.g., hypothesis generation, identification of falsifying instances, item development). 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Perceptual fluency and judgments of vocal aesthetics and stereotypicality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babel, Molly; McGuire, Grant

    2015-05-01

    Research has shown that processing dynamics on the perceiver's end determine aesthetic pleasure. Specifically, typical objects, which are processed more fluently, are perceived as more attractive. We extend this notion of perceptual fluency to judgments of vocal aesthetics. Vocal attractiveness has traditionally been examined with respect to sexual dimorphism and the apparent size of a talker, as reconstructed from the acoustic signal, despite evidence that gender-specific speech patterns are learned social behaviors. In this study, we report on a series of three experiments using 60 voices (30 females) to compare the relationship between judgments of vocal attractiveness, stereotypicality, and gender categorization fluency. Our results indicate that attractiveness and stereotypicality are highly correlated for female and male voices. Stereotypicality and categorization fluency were also correlated for male voices, but not female voices. Crucially, stereotypicality and categorization fluency interacted to predict attractiveness, suggesting the role of perceptual fluency is present, but nuanced, in judgments of human voices.

  13. Moral judgment competence of nursing students in the Czech Republic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bužgová, Radka; Sikorová, Lucie

    2013-10-01

    The aim of this cross-sectional study was to determine the level of moral judgment competence in students of nursing at the University of Ostrava Faculty of Medicine, and whether it is influenced by the field of study, type of study, current year of study and age. The design of the study was cross-sectional. The survey sample comprised 662 full-time and part-time students of General Nursing and Midwifery. To measure ethical competence, Lind's Moral Judgment Test (MJT, 1995) was used. The nursing students showed low C-index scores (the mean C-index was 14.24 ± 9.56). The C-index was significantly influenced only by the type of study and age (pmoral judgment, that is the post-conventional level. Due to the nursing students' lower C-index scores, methods developing ethical argumentation should be introduced into nursing ethics courses. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Age differences in the accuracy of confidence judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pliske, R M; Mutter, S A

    1996-01-01

    Age differences in accuracy were investigated by having older (M = 68.6 years) and younger (M = 21.5 years) adults make confidence judgments about the correctness of their responses to two sets of general knowledge items. For one set, prior to making their confidence judgments, subjects made mental strategy judgements indicating how they had selected their answers (i.e., they guessed, used intuition, made an inference, or immediately recognized the response as correct). Results indicate that older subjects were more accurate than younger subjects in predicting the correctness of their responses; however, making mental strategy judgments did not result in increased accuracy for either age group. Additional analyses explored the relationship between accuracy and other individual difference variables. The results of this investigation are consistent with recent theories of postformal cognitive development that suggest older adults have greater insight into the limitations of their knowledge.

  15. Children's Judgments and Reasoning About Same-Sex Romantic Relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spence, Sarah; Helwig, Charles C; Cosentino, Nicole

    2017-03-06

    Children's (5-, 7- to 8-, and 10- to 11-year-olds), and adolescents' (13- to 14-year-olds) judgments and reasoning about same-sex romantic relationships were examined (N = 128). Participants' beliefs about the acceptability and legal regulation of these relationships were assessed, along with their judgments and beliefs about excluding someone because of his or her sexual orientation and the origins of same-sex attraction. Older participants evaluated same-sex romantic relationships more positively and used more references to personal choice and justice/discrimination reasoning to support their judgments. Younger participants were less critical of a law prohibiting same-sex relationships and were more likely to believe it was not acceptable to violate this law. Beliefs about origins of same-sex attraction showed age-specific patterns in their associations with evaluations. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

  16. Tainting the soul: purity concerns predict moral judgments of suicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rottman, Joshua; Kelemen, Deborah; Young, Liane

    2014-02-01

    Moral violations are typically defined as actions that harm others. However, suicide is considered immoral even though the perpetrator is also the victim. To determine whether concerns about purity rather than harm predict moral condemnation of suicide, we presented American adults with obituaries describing suicide or homicide victims. While harm was the only variable predicting moral judgments of homicide, perceived harm (toward others, the self, or God) did not significantly account for variance in moral judgments of suicide. Instead, regardless of political and religious views and contrary to explicit beliefs about their own moral judgments, participants were more likely to morally condemn suicide if they (i) believed suicide tainted the victims' souls, (ii) reported greater concerns about purity in an independent questionnaire, (iii) experienced more disgust in response to the obituaries, or (iv) reported greater trait disgust. Thus, suicide is deemed immoral to the extent that it is considered impure.

  17. Music-evoked incidental happiness modulates probability weighting during risky lottery choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulreich, Stefan; Heussen, Yana G; Gerhardt, Holger; Mohr, Peter N C; Binkofski, Ferdinand C; Koelsch, Stefan; Heekeren, Hauke R

    2014-01-07

    We often make decisions with uncertain consequences. The outcomes of the choices we make are usually not perfectly predictable but probabilistic, and the probabilities can be known or unknown. Probability judgments, i.e., the assessment of unknown probabilities, can be influenced by evoked emotional states. This suggests that also the weighting of known probabilities in decision making under risk might be influenced by incidental emotions, i.e., emotions unrelated to the judgments and decisions at issue. Probability weighting describes the transformation of probabilities into subjective decision weights for outcomes and is one of the central components of cumulative prospect theory (CPT) that determine risk attitudes. We hypothesized that music-evoked emotions would modulate risk attitudes in the gain domain and in particular probability weighting. Our experiment featured a within-subject design consisting of four conditions in separate sessions. In each condition, the 41 participants listened to a different kind of music-happy, sad, or no music, or sequences of random tones-and performed a repeated pairwise lottery choice task. We found that participants chose the riskier lotteries significantly more often in the "happy" than in the "sad" and "random tones" conditions. Via structural regressions based on CPT, we found that the observed changes in participants' choices can be attributed to changes in the elevation parameter of the probability weighting function: in the "happy" condition, participants showed significantly higher decision weights associated with the larger payoffs than in the "sad" and "random tones" conditions. Moreover, elevation correlated positively with self-reported music-evoked happiness. Thus, our experimental results provide evidence in favor of a causal effect of incidental happiness on risk attitudes that can be explained by changes in probability weighting.

  18. Music-evoked incidental happiness modulates probability weighting during risky lottery choices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan eSchulreich

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We often make decisions with uncertain consequences. The outcomes of the choices we make are usually not perfectly predictable but probabilistic and the probabilities can be known or unknown. Probability judgments, i.e., the assessment of unknown probabilities can be influenced by evoked emotional states. This suggests that also the weighting of known probabilities in decision making under risk might be influenced by incidental emotions, i.e., emotions unrelated to the judgments and decisions at issue. Probability weighting describes the transformation of probabilities into subjective decision weights for outcomes and is one of the central components of cumulative prospect theory (CPT that determine risk attitudes. We hypothesized that music-evoked emotions would modulate risk attitudes in the gain domain and in particular probability weighting. Our experiment featured a within-subject design consisting of four conditions in separate sessions. In each condition, the 41 participants listened to to a different kind of music—happy, sad, or no music, or sequences of random tones—and performed a repeated pairwise lottery choice task. We found that participants chose the riskier lotteries significantly more often in the happy than in the sad and random tones conditions. Via structural regressions based on CPT, we found that the observed changes in participants’ choices can be attributed to changes in the elevation parameter of the probability weighting function: In the happy condition, participants showed significantly higher decision weights associated with the larger payoffs than in the sad and random tones conditions. Moreover, the elevation parameter correlated positively with self-reported music-evoked happiness. Thus, our experimental results provide evidence in favor of a causal effect of incidental happiness on risk attitudes that can be explained by changes in probability weighting.

  19. Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Dworsky, Lawrence N

    2008-01-01

    An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...

  20. Stuttering and speech naturalness: audio and audiovisual judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, R R; Haroldson, S K

    1992-06-01

    Unsophisticated raters, using 9-point interval scales, judged speech naturalness and stuttering severity of recorded stutterer and nonstutterer speech samples. Raters judged separately the audio-only and audiovisual presentations of each sample. For speech naturalness judgments of stutterer samples, raters invariably judged the audiovisual presentation more unnatural than the audio presentation of the same sample; but for the nonstutterer samples, there was no difference between audio and audiovisual naturalness ratings. Stuttering severity ratings did not differ significantly between audio and audiovisual presentations of the same samples. Rater reliability, interrater agreement, and intrarater agreement for speech naturalness judgments were assessed.

  1. Effects of Meaning and Symmetry on Judgments of Size

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reber, Rolf; Christensen, Bo T.; Meier, Beat

    2014-01-01

    showed in Experiment 1 that meaning increased judged size, whereas symmetry decreased judged size. In the next two experiments, we excluded several alternative explanations for the differences in size judgments between meaningful and meaningless materials in earlier studies. This finding contradicts...... to be judged as larger than asymmetric numbers (e.g., 43). However, recent research found that symmetric numbers were judged to be smaller than asymmetric numbers. This finding suggests that the mechanisms underlying size judgments may differ in meaningful and meaningless materials. Supporting this notion, we...

  2. The Contrabassist and the CEO: Moral Judgment and Collective Identity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Pinzani

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available How much is a moral judgment on a single act influenced by circumstances which have little to do with the nature of the act itself? How much have certain moral judgments to do with the common history and shared experience of a certain group of individuals? Using two cases taken from life (a German musician and a German CEO behaving both in a morally wrong way but with very different consequences from the point of view of moral judgement and with very different reactions from the German public, the article tries to give an answer to these questions, touching issues like: guilt, moral responsibility, collective responsibility, and collective identity.

  3. [Clinical research XII. From the clinical judgment to the transversal design].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talavera, Juan O; Rivas-Ruiz, Rodolfo

    2012-01-01

    A longitudinal study, such as a cohort or clinical trial, has the virtue of following the logical sequence in which occurs the components of causality phenomenon. However, in a cross-sectional survey, this logical sequence does not exist, because the three components are measured at one time: the basal state, maneuver, and result. However, the design of "clinical judgment" helps us to rebuild these components artificially in the time sequence in which they occurred. The way the population is assembled and how information is obtained, transversally and retrospectively, carries the risk of bias. While trying to associate a probable maneuver to an outcome in a pathological situation is difficult and often causes bias, a cross-sectional survey is the best to show the development of healthy people simulating a longitudinal study, like the height and weight estimation according to age. This type of design has been called "a longitudinal cross sectional study."

  4. Admission to intensive care can be reliably predicted using only clinical judgment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brabrand, M.

    2015-01-01

    staffwere able to identify patients in need of critical care using only clinical judgment and to compare this with the National Early Warning Score (NEWS). Methods This was a prospective cohort study of all adult patients with a first-time admission to a medical admission unit at a 450-bed regional teaching......Introduction Not all patients in need of critical care arrive in clinical distress and some deteriorate after arrival. Identifying these patients early in their clinical course could potentially improve outcome. The present study was performed with the aim of assessing whether nursing and physician...... hospital over a 3-month period in 2010. All subspecialties of internal medicine are present as well as a level 2 ICU. Upon first contact with the patient after arrival, nursing staffand physicians were asked to report their estimation of the probability of ICU admission (0 to 100%). Survival status...

  5. Combining experts' risk judgments on technology performance of phytoremediation: self-confidence ratings, averaging procedures, and formative consensus building.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholz, Roland W; Hansmann, Ralf

    2007-02-01

    Expert panels and averaging procedures are common means for coping with the uncertainty of effects of technology application in complex environments. We investigate the connection between confidence and the validity of expert judgment. Moreover, a formative consensus building procedure (FCB) is introduced that generates probability statements on the performance of technologies, and we compare different algorithms for the statistical aggregation of individual judgments. The case study refers to an expert panel of 10 environmental scientists assessing the performance of a soil cleanup technology that uses the capability of certain plants to accumulate heavy metals from the soil in the plant body (phytoremediation). The panel members first provided individual statements on the effectiveness of a phytoremediation. Such statements can support policymakers, answering the questions concerning the expected performance of the new technology in contaminated areas. The present study reviews (1) the steps of the FCB, (2) the constraints of technology application (contaminants, soil structure, etc.), (3) the measurement of expert knowledge, (4) the statistical averaging and the discursive agreement procedures, and (5) the boundaries of application for the FCB method. The quantitative statement oriented part of FCB generates terms such as: "The probability that the concentration of soil contamination will be reduced by at least 50% is 0.8." The data suggest that taking the median of the individual expert estimates provides the most accurate aggregated estimate. The discursive agreement procedure of FCB appears suitable for deriving politically relevant singular statements rather than for obtaining comprehensive information about uncertainties as represented by probability distributions.

  6. Cluster Membership Probability: Polarimetric Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Medhi, Biman J

    2013-01-01

    Interstellar polarimetric data of the six open clusters Hogg 15, NGC 6611, NGC 5606, NGC 6231, NGC 5749 and NGC 6250 have been used to estimate the membership probability for the stars within them. For proper-motion member stars, the membership probability estimated using the polarimetric data is in good agreement with the proper-motion cluster membership probability. However, for proper-motion non-member stars, the membership probability estimated by the polarimetric method is in total disagreement with the proper-motion cluster membership probability. The inconsistencies in the determined memberships may be because of the fundamental differences between the two methods of determination: one is based on stellar proper-motion in space and the other is based on selective extinction of the stellar output by the asymmetric aligned dust grains present in the interstellar medium. The results and analysis suggest that the scatter of the Stokes vectors q(%) and u(%) for the proper-motion member stars depends on the ...

  7. Normal probability plots with confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods.

  8. Limits to global and Australian temperature change this century based on expert judgment of climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grose, Michael R.; Colman, Robert; Bhend, Jonas; Moise, Aurel F.

    2016-07-01

    The projected warming of surface air temperature at the global and regional scale by the end of the century is directly related to emissions and Earth's climate sensitivity. Projections are typically produced using an ensemble of climate models such as CMIP5, however the range of climate sensitivity in models doesn't cover the entire range considered plausible by expert judgment. Of particular interest from a risk-management perspective is the lower impact outcome associated with low climate sensitivity and the low-probability, high-impact outcomes associated with the top of the range. Here we scale climate model output to the limits of expert judgment of climate sensitivity to explore these limits. This scaling indicates an expanded range of projected change for each emissions pathway, including a much higher upper bound for both the globe and Australia. We find the possibility of exceeding a warming of 2 °C since pre-industrial is projected under high emissions for every model even scaled to the lowest estimate of sensitivity, and is possible under low emissions under most estimates of sensitivity. Although these are not quantitative projections, the results may be useful to inform thinking about the limits to change until the sensitivity can be more reliably constrained, or this expanded range of possibilities can be explored in a more formal way. When viewing climate projections, accounting for these low-probability but high-impact outcomes in a risk management approach can complement the focus on the likely range of projections. They can also highlight the scale of the potential reduction in range of projections, should tight constraints on climate sensitivity be established by future research.

  9. Kohlberg's theory about moral judgment development and the instruments used for evaluation of moral judgment and moral competence in Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    O presente artigo tem por objetivo abordar as bases, finalidades e composição de dois instrumentos de avaliação de juízo moral: a Moral Judgment Interview (MJI) e o Defining Issues Test (DIT), e um de competência moral: o Moral Judgment Test (MJT). Retoma a teoria do desenvolvimento moral de Kohlberg que fundamenta esses instrumentos, assim como os últimos estudos realizados com os mesmos. A MJI é uma entrevista semiestruturada que avalia o nível de juízo moral. O DIT é um teste objetivo que ...

  10. Detonation probabilities of high explosives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eisenhawer, S.W.; Bott, T.F.; Bement, T.R.

    1995-07-01

    The probability of a high explosive violent reaction (HEVR) following various events is an extremely important aspect of estimating accident-sequence frequency for nuclear weapons dismantlement. In this paper, we describe the development of response curves for insults to PBX 9404, a conventional high-performance explosive used in US weapons. The insults during dismantlement include drops of high explosive (HE), strikes of tools and components on HE, and abrasion of the explosive. In the case of drops, we combine available test data on HEVRs and the results of flooring certification tests to estimate the HEVR probability. For other insults, it was necessary to use expert opinion. We describe the expert solicitation process and the methods used to consolidate the responses. The HEVR probabilities obtained from both approaches are compared.

  11. Probability theory a foundational course

    CERN Document Server

    Pakshirajan, R P

    2013-01-01

    This book shares the dictum of J. L. Doob in treating Probability Theory as a branch of Measure Theory and establishes this relation early. Probability measures in product spaces are introduced right at the start by way of laying the ground work to later claim the existence of stochastic processes with prescribed finite dimensional distributions. Other topics analysed in the book include supports of probability measures, zero-one laws in product measure spaces, Erdos-Kac invariance principle, functional central limit theorem and functional law of the iterated logarithm for independent variables, Skorohod embedding, and the use of analytic functions of a complex variable in the study of geometric ergodicity in Markov chains. This book is offered as a text book for students pursuing graduate programs in Mathematics and or Statistics. The book aims to help the teacher present the theory with ease, and to help the student sustain his interest and joy in learning the subject.

  12. VIBRATION ISOLATION SYSTEM PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smirnov Vladimir Alexandrovich

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the probability analysis for a vibration isolation system of high-precision equipment, which is extremely sensitive to low-frequency oscillations even of submicron amplitude. The external sources of low-frequency vibrations may include the natural city background or internal low-frequency sources inside buildings (pedestrian activity, HVAC. Taking Gauss distribution into account, the author estimates the probability of the relative displacement of the isolated mass being still lower than the vibration criteria. This problem is being solved in the three dimensional space, evolved by the system parameters, including damping and natural frequency. According to this probability distribution, the chance of exceeding the vibration criteria for a vibration isolation system is evaluated. Optimal system parameters - damping and natural frequency - are being developed, thus the possibility of exceeding vibration criteria VC-E and VC-D is assumed to be less than 0.04.

  13. Approximation methods in probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Čekanavičius, Vydas

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a wide range of well-known and less common methods used for estimating the accuracy of probabilistic approximations, including the Esseen type inversion formulas, the Stein method as well as the methods of convolutions and triangle function. Emphasising the correct usage of the methods presented, each step required for the proofs is examined in detail. As a result, this textbook provides valuable tools for proving approximation theorems. While Approximation Methods in Probability Theory will appeal to everyone interested in limit theorems of probability theory, the book is particularly aimed at graduate students who have completed a standard intermediate course in probability theory. Furthermore, experienced researchers wanting to enlarge their toolkit will also find this book useful.

  14. Probability on real Lie algebras

    CERN Document Server

    Franz, Uwe

    2016-01-01

    This monograph is a progressive introduction to non-commutativity in probability theory, summarizing and synthesizing recent results about classical and quantum stochastic processes on Lie algebras. In the early chapters, focus is placed on concrete examples of the links between algebraic relations and the moments of probability distributions. The subsequent chapters are more advanced and deal with Wigner densities for non-commutative couples of random variables, non-commutative stochastic processes with independent increments (quantum Lévy processes), and the quantum Malliavin calculus. This book will appeal to advanced undergraduate and graduate students interested in the relations between algebra, probability, and quantum theory. It also addresses a more advanced audience by covering other topics related to non-commutativity in stochastic calculus, Lévy processes, and the Malliavin calculus.

  15. Detection and identification of spatial offset: double-judgment psychophysics revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allik, Jüri; Toom, Mai; Rauk, Marika

    2014-11-01

    In a bull's-eye acuity task, we asked observers to identify in which direction, to the left or the right, a spot had been displaced from the center of a circle and-after that, in the same trial-to detect which of the two presented circles contained the displaced spot. Replicating our previous findings (Allik, Dzhafarov, & Rauk, 1982), the spatial offset direction identification probability was higher than the probability with which the correct observation interval could be detected. All data were explained by a Thurstonian model, according to which the spatial positions of both spots are projected onto an internal axis of representation as two random numbers, x and y, drawn from a random distribution with a fixed standard deviation ς (final sigma). The observed identification and detection probabilities were accurately reproduced, provided that the observer tested two different inequalities: x + y > 0 for the identification, and x (2) - y (2) > 0 for the detection. In order to eliminate small discrepancies between the predicted and the observed data, we proposed that the positional error increases with increasing distance from the center of the annulus. It was concluded that, to explain the superiority of the identification over the detection effect, there is no need to propose separate axes of representation for mono- and bipolar information, as is usually postulated in double-judgment psychophysics.

  16. Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Olofsson, Peter

    2011-01-01

    A mathematical and intuitive approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes This textbook provides a unique, balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. This text combines a rigorous, calculus-based development of theory with a more intuitive approach that appeals to readers' sense of reason and logic, an approach developed through the author's many years of classroom experience. The text begins with three chapters that d

  17. Innovation and social probable knowledge

    OpenAIRE

    Marco Crocco

    2000-01-01

    In this paper some elements of Keynes's theory of probability are used to understand the process of diffusion of an innovation. Based on a work done elsewhere (Crocco 1999, 2000), we argue that this process can be viewed as a process of dealing with the collective uncertainty about how to sort a technological problem. Expanding the concepts of weight of argument and probable knowledge to deal with this kind of uncertainty we argue that the concepts of social weight of argument and social prob...

  18. Knowledge typology for imprecise probabilities.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, G. D. (Gregory D.); Zucker, L. J. (Lauren J.)

    2002-01-01

    When characterizing the reliability of a complex system there are often gaps in the data available for specific subsystems or other factors influencing total system reliability. At Los Alamos National Laboratory we employ ethnographic methods to elicit expert knowledge when traditional data is scarce. Typically, we elicit expert knowledge in probabilistic terms. This paper will explore how we might approach elicitation if methods other than probability (i.e., Dempster-Shafer, or fuzzy sets) prove more useful for quantifying certain types of expert knowledge. Specifically, we will consider if experts have different types of knowledge that may be better characterized in ways other than standard probability theory.

  19. Probability, statistics, and queueing theory

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Arnold O

    1990-01-01

    This is a textbook on applied probability and statistics with computer science applications for students at the upper undergraduate level. It may also be used as a self study book for the practicing computer science professional. The successful first edition of this book proved extremely useful to students who need to use probability, statistics and queueing theory to solve problems in other fields, such as engineering, physics, operations research, and management science. The book has also been successfully used for courses in queueing theory for operations research students. This second edit

  20. Clinical Judgments of Easy vs. Difficult Clients by Counselor Trainees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Allen; Morrison, Thomas L.

    1984-01-01

    Investigated responses of counselor trainees (N=31) to easy versus difficult clients in terms of clinical judgments. Results indicated that clients with a difficult interpersonal style were not regarded as more psychologically disturbed, but were rated as having less potential for change and less ego strength. (LLL)

  1. Sex Bias in Clinical Judgment among School Psychologists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prout, H. Thompson; Frederickson, Anne K.

    1991-01-01

    Used analogue case study format to examine sex bias in clinical judgment among school psychologists. Varied sex of adolescent and problem type in 2 X 2 design. School psychologists read case study and rated perceived disturbance and importance of intervention. Psychologists rated it more important to intervene when subject was male; no differences…

  2. Cognitive Differentiation and Affective Stimulus Value in Vocational Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodden, Jack L.; Klein, Alan J.

    1973-01-01

    This study investigated the relationship between cognitive differentiation level and the affective stimulus value of various occupations. Findings of the present investigation, conducted with upper-class college males, were consistent with the findings obtained in previous clinical and social judgment studies. Subjects were cognitively more…

  3. Clinical Judgment And The Strong Vocational Interest Blank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinnett, E. Robert; And Others

    1972-01-01

    Forty subjects (highly qualified and experienced in clinical judgment) were used to psychologically scale the extent to which SVIB scores and profiles supported an expressed vocational choice. Moderately high agreement was demonstrated across judges, although they differed considerably in the weights assigned to scores and configural patterns.…

  4. Time Keeps on Ticking: The Experience of Clinical Judgment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spengler, Paul M.; White, Michael J.; Aegisdottir, Stefania; Maugherman, Alan S.

    2009-01-01

    The reactions by Ridley and Shaw-Ridley (EJ832451) and Lichtenberg (EJ832452) to the authors' meta-analysis on the effects of experience on judgment accuracy add positively to what is hoped will become an ever more focused discourse on this most basic question: How can mental health clinical decision making be improved? In this rejoinder, the…

  5. The Effect of Sad Facial Expressions on Weight Judgment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trent D Weston

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Although the body weight evaluation (e.g., normal or overweight of others relies on perceptual impressions, it also can be influenced by other psychosocial factors. In this study, we explored the effect of task-irrelevant emotional facial expressions on judgments of body weight and the relationship between emotion-induced weight judgment bias and other psychosocial variables including attitudes towards obese person. Forty-four participants were asked to quickly make binary body weight decisions for 960 randomized sad and neutral faces of varying weight levels presented on a computer screen. The results showed that sad facial expressions systematically decreased the decision threshold of overweight judgments for male faces. This perceptual decision bias by emotional expressions was positively correlated with the belief that being overweight is not under the control of obese persons. Our results provide experimental evidence that task-irrelevant emotional expressions can systematically change the decision threshold for weight judgments, demonstrating that sad expressions can make faces appear more overweight than they would otherwise be judged.

  6. Social Judgments and Emotion Attributions about Exclusion in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malti, Tina; Killen, Melanie; Gasser, Luciano

    2012-01-01

    Adolescents' social judgments and emotion attributions about exclusion in three contexts, nationality, gender, and personality, were measured in a sample of 12- and 15-year-old Swiss and non-Swiss adolescents (N = 247). Overall, adolescents judged exclusion based on nationality as less acceptable than exclusion based on gender or personality.…

  7. Children's Temporal Judgments for Autobiographical Past and Future Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Judith A.; Mayhew, Estelle M. Y.

    2011-01-01

    We compared the performance of twenty 5-7-year-olds on two spatial-temporal judgment tasks. In a semantic task, children located temporal distances from today that were described using conventional, temporal terms on a spatial timeline. In an autobiographical task, children judged temporal distances on the same spatial timeline for events that…

  8. Concurrent Dynamics of Category Learning and Metacognitive Judgments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valnea Žauhar

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In two experiments, we examined the correspondence between the dynamics of metacognitive judgments and classification accuracy when participants were asked to learn category structures of different levels of complexity, i.e., to learn tasks of types I, II and III according to Shepard, Hovland, and Jenkins (1961. The stimuli were simple geometrical figures varying in the following three dimensions: color, shape, and size. In Experiment 1, we found moderate positive correlations between confidence and accuracy in task type II and weaker correlation in task type I and III. Moreover, the trend analysis in the backward learning curves revealed that there is a non-linear trend in accuracy for all three task types, but the same trend was observed in confidence for the task type I and II but not for task type III. In Experiment 2, we found that the feeling-of-warmth judgments (FOWs showed moderate positive correlation with accuracy in all task types. Trend analysis revealed a similar non-linear component in accuracy and metacognitive judgments in task type II and III but not in task type I. Our results suggest that FOWs are a more sensitive measure of the progress of learning than confidence because FOWs capture global knowledge about the category structure, while confidence judgments are given at the level of an individual exemplar.

  9. Distinct information critically distinguishes judgments of face familiarity and identity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Marie L; Volna, Blanka; Ewing, Louise

    2016-11-01

    Accurately determining the familiarity of another and correctly establishing their identity are vital social skills. A considerable body of work has explored their perceptual and neural underpinnings and debate remains regarding whether they are dissociable, that is, separable parts of a dual process, or different aspects of a common retrieval process. Less is known about the specific visual information that guides familiarity judgments and how this compares to the information used to identify a face by name. Here we sought to establish the critical information underlying participants' judgments of facial familiarity and identification. We created a new standardized stimulus set comprising 6 personally familiar and 12 unfamiliar faces and applied the Bubbles reverse-correlation methodology to establish the information driving correct performance in each task. Results revealed that markedly different information underlies familiarity and identity judgments. When categorizing familiarity, participants relied more upon lower spatial-frequency, broad facial cues (eye and face shape) than when categorizing identity, which relied on fine details in the internal features (eyes and mouth). These results provide novel evidence of qualitatively distinct information use in familiarity and identification judgments and emphasize the importance of considering the task set for participants and their processing strategy when investigating face recognition. (PsycINFO Database Record

  10. Monitoring Communication with Patients: Analyzing Judgments of Satisfaction (JOS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner-Menghin, Michaela; de Bruin, Anique; van Merriënboer, Jeroen J. G.

    2016-01-01

    Medical students struggle to put into practice communication skills learned in medical school. In order to improve our instructional designs, better insight into the cause of this lack of transfer is foundational. We therefore explored students' cognitions by soliciting self-evaluations of their history-taking skills, coined "judgments of…

  11. Discrepancies between judgment and choice of action in moral dilemmas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sébastien eTassy

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Everyone has experienced the potential discrepancy between what one judges as morally acceptable and what one actually does when a choice between alternative behaviors is to be made. The present study explores empirically whether judgment and choice of action differ when people make decisions on dilemmas involving moral issues. 240 participants evaluated 24 moral and non-moral dilemmas either by judging (Is it acceptable to… or reporting the choice of action they would make (Would you do…. We also investigated the influence of varying the number of people benefiting from the decision and the closeness of relationship of the decision maker with the potential victim on these two types of decision. Variations in the number of beneficiaries from the decision did not influence judgment nor choice of action. By contrast, closeness of relationship with the victim had a greater influence on the choice of action than on judgment. This differentiation between evaluative judgments and choices of action argues in favor of each of them being supported by (at least partially different psychological processes.

  12. Lux et Verisimilitudo: Judgment Data in SLA Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birdsong, David

    A discussion of the data obtained from grammaticality judgment tasks argues that despite the light shed by these data on problems of second language acquisition theory, there is not yet adequate knowledge of how to interpret those data within a coherent model of performance of the tasks. Therefore, it is concluded, there is no basis for deciding…

  13. 28 CFR 0.171 - Judgments, fines, penalties, and forfeitures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... OF JUSTICE Authority To Compromise and Close Civil Claims and Responsibility for Judgments, Fines... that the division will assume such enforcement responsibilities. (b) Each U.S. Attorney shall designate... section that such division will assume responsibility for enforcement of a criminal monetary penalty,...

  14. Roadside Judgments in Children with Developmental Co-ordination Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purcell, Catherine; Wann, John P.; Wilmut, Kate; Poulter, Damian

    2011-01-01

    As pedestrians, the perceptual ability to accurately judge the relative rate of approaching vehicles and select a suitable crossing gap requires sensitivity to looming. It also requires that crossing judgments are synchronized with motoric capabilities. Previous research has suggested that children with Developmental Co-ordination Disorder (DCD)…

  15. Context effects on tempo and pleasantness judgments for Beatles songs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashotte, Matthew A; Wedell, Douglas H

    2012-04-01

    Context effects on tempo and pleasantness judgments of different tempos were demonstrated in three experiments using Beatles songs. In Experiments 1 and 2, we explored how listening to versions of the same song that were played at different tempos affected tempo and pleasantness ratings. In both experiments, contrast effects were found on judgments of tempo, with target tempos rated faster when context tempos were slow than when they were fast. In both experiments, we also showed that the peak of the pleasantness rating function shifted toward the values of the context tempos, reflecting disordinal context effects on pleasantness relationships. Familiarity with the songs did not moderate these effects, and shifts in tempo ratings did not correlate with shifts in most pleasant target tempos when context was manipulated within subjects. In Experiment 3, we examined how manipulations of context tempos for one song affected judgments of the same song as compared with judgments of other more or less similar songs. For tempo ratings, contrast effects transferred to ratings of a similar song, but for pleasantness ratings, assimilative shifts of ideals were found only for the same song and not for similar songs. This pattern of results was supportive of independent bases for the two context effects.

  16. On Designing Construct Driven Situational Judgment Tests: Some Preliminary Recommendations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guenole, Nigel; Chernyshenko, Oleksandr S.; Weekly, Jeff

    2017-01-01

    Situational judgment tests (SJTs) are widely agreed to be a measurement technique. It is also widely agreed that SJTs are a questionable methodological choice for measurement of psychological constructs, such as behavioral competencies, due to a lack of evidence supporting appropriate factor structures and high internal consistencies.…

  17. Judgments of Learning Are Influenced by Memory for Past Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finn, Bridgid; Metcalfe, Janet

    2008-01-01

    The Underconfidence with Practice (UPW) effect [Koriat, A., Sheffer, L., & Ma'ayan, H. (2002). Comparing objective and subjective learning curves: Judgment of learning exhibit increased underconfidence with practice. "Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 131", 147-162.], found in multi-trial learning, is marked by a pattern of…

  18. Effects of Age Expectations on Oncology Social Workers' Clinical Judgment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conlon, Annemarie; Choi, Namkee G.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: This study examined the influence of oncology social workers' expectations regarding aging (ERA) and ERA with cancer (ERAC) on their clinical judgment. Methods: Oncology social workers (N = 322) were randomly assigned to one of four vignettes describing a patient with lung cancer. The vignettes were identical except for the patent's age…

  19. A Perspective on Judgment and Choice: Mapping Bounded Rationality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahneman, Daniel

    2003-01-01

    Early studies of intuitive judgment and decision making conducted with the late Amos Tversky are reviewed in the context of two related concepts: an analysis of accessibility, the ease with which thoughts come to mind; a distinction between effortless intuition and deliberate reasoning. Intuitive thoughts, like percepts, are highly accessible.…

  20. Detestable or Marvelous? Neuroanatomical Correlates of Character Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croft, Katie E.; Duff, Melissa C.; Kovach, Christopher K.; Anderson, Steven W.; Adolphs, Ralph; Tranel, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    As we learn new information about the social and moral behaviors of other people, we form and update character judgments of them, and this can profoundly influence how we regard and act towards others. In the study reported here, we capitalized on two interesting neurological patient populations where this process of complex "moral…

  1. Developmental Changes and Individual Differences in Young Children's Moral Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smetana, Judith G.; Rote, Wendy M.; Jambon, Marc; Tasopoulos-Chan, Marina; Villalobos, Myriam; Comer, Jessamy

    2012-01-01

    Developmental trajectories and individual differences in 70 American middle-income 2.5- to 4-year olds' moral judgments were examined 3 times across 1 year using latent growth modeling. At Wave 1, children distinguished hypothetical moral from conventional transgressions on all criteria, but only older preschoolers did so when rating deserved…

  2. A person-centered approach to moral judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uhlmann, Eric Luis; Pizarro, David A; Diermeier, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Both normative theories of ethics in philosophy and contemporary models of moral judgment in psychology have focused almost exclusively on the permissibility of acts, in particular whether acts should be judged on the basis of their material outcomes (consequentialist ethics) or on the basis of rules, duties, and obligations (deontological ethics). However, a longstanding third perspective on morality, virtue ethics, may offer a richer descriptive account of a wide range of lay moral judgments. Building on this ethical tradition, we offer a person-centered account of moral judgment, which focuses on individuals as the unit of analysis for moral evaluations rather than on acts. Because social perceivers are fundamentally motivated to acquire information about the moral character of others, features of an act that seem most informative of character often hold more weight than either the consequences of the act or whether a moral rule has been broken. This approach, we argue, can account for numerous empirical findings that are either not predicted by current theories of moral psychology or are simply categorized as biases or irrational quirks in the way individuals make moral judgments.

  3. Teleological judgment and instrumental reason in Kant and Horkheimer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Lars Axel

    2006-01-01

    Early in his career, Max Horkheimer occupied himself twice with Kant's "Critique of judgment". In both cases he focussed on Kant's teleology, not his aesthetics. The article takes at the question, whether there is a connection between Horkheimer's early occupation with "the critique of teleological...

  4. Moral Judgment as a Function of Age, Sex, and Stimulus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Sue J. M.; Giebink, John W.

    1979-01-01

    Provides data in support of Lawrence Kohlberg's moral development theory. Shows comparable moral judgments for boys and girls at ages 11 and 17, but higher moral reasoning in 14-year-old girls than in their male peers. (Author/RL)

  5. Back view of beauty: a bias in attractiveness judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yonemura, Keiichi; Ono, Fuminori; Watanabe, Katsumi

    2013-01-01

    Attractiveness judgment based on visual appearance seems easy and almost automatic. However, it becomes difficult when we need to rely on glances of a person's back view (eg while passing on the street). How is attractiveness judgment from the back view consistent with that from full-front view? In experiment 1 participants rated the attractiveness of human heads photographed from behind and from the front. Attractiveness ratings between the back and front views were weakly but significantly correlated. However, on average, the back-view photographs were rated more attractive than the front-view photographs. The tendency was most conspicuous when the male participants viewed the photographs of women. In experiment 2 participants were explicitly asked to predict the facial attractiveness of each head's front view based on the back view. Again, the predicted attractiveness based on the back view was higher than the actual rating of the front-view photographs, and the difference reached significance when the male participants viewed the women photographs. These biases in attractiveness judgment would be related to attractiveness judgments in everyday situations where straight full-frontal encounters are rare.

  6. The Effects of Unstructured Group Discussion on Ethical Judgment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Clinton H.; Alder, G. Stoney

    2014-01-01

    The authors examine the effects of shared information and group discussion on ethical judgment when no structure is imposed on the discussion to encourage ethical considerations. Discussants were asked to identify arguments for and against a variety of business behaviors with ethical implications. A group moderator solicited and recorded arguments…

  7. Children's and Adults' Judgments of the Controllability of Cognitive Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillow, Bradford H.; Pearson, RaeAnne M.

    2015-01-01

    Two experiments investigated 1st-, 3rd-, and 5th-grade children's and adults' judgments related to the controllability of cognitive activities, including object recognition, inferential reasoning, counting, and pretending. In Experiment 1, fifth-grade children and adults rated transitive inference and interpretation of ambiguous pictures as more…

  8. ICT Student Teachers' Judgments and Justifications about Ethical Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alakurt, Turgay; Bardakci, Salih; Keser, Hafize

    2012-01-01

    In this study, Turkish ICT student teachers' judgments and justifications in four scenarios involving ICT-related ethical problems were investigated. Scenarios were designed based on Mason's (1986) four ethical issues: privacy, accuracy, property and accessibility. The study was carried out in the fall of 2010. We used the critical incidents…

  9. Epistemological Development and Judgments and Reasoning about Teaching Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spence, Sarah; Helwig, Charles C.

    2013-01-01

    Children's, adolescents', and adults' (N = 96 7-8, 10-11, and 13-14-year-olds and university students) epistemological development and its relation to judgments and reasoning about teaching methods was examined. The domain (scientific or moral), nature of the topic (controversial or noncontroversial), and teaching method (direct instruction by…

  10. The Effects of Unstructured Group Discussion on Ethical Judgment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Clinton H.; Alder, G. Stoney

    2014-01-01

    The authors examine the effects of shared information and group discussion on ethical judgment when no structure is imposed on the discussion to encourage ethical considerations. Discussants were asked to identify arguments for and against a variety of business behaviors with ethical implications. A group moderator solicited and recorded arguments…

  11. Context Effects in Valuation, Judgment and Choice: A Neuroscientific Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Hytönen (Kaisa)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractIt is well known that our choices and judgments depend on the context. For instance, prior experiences can influence subsequent decisions. People tend to make riskier decisions if they have a chance to win back a previous loss or if they can gamble with previously won money. Another exam

  12. Confidence and Professional Judgment in Assessing Children's Risk of Abuse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regehr, Cheryl; Bogo, Marion; Shlonsky, Aron; LeBlanc, Vicki

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Child welfare agencies have moved toward standardized risk assessment measures to improve the reliability with which child's risk of abuse is predicted. Nevertheless, these tools require a degree of subjective judgment. Research to date has not substantially investigated the influence of specific context and worker characteristics on…

  13. Swiss identity smells like chocolate: Social identity shapes olfactory judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coppin, Géraldine; Pool, Eva; Delplanque, Sylvain; Oud, Bastiaan; Margot, Christian; Sander, David; Van Bavel, Jay J

    2016-10-11

    There is extensive evidence that social identities can shape people's attitudes and behavior, but what about sensory judgments? We examined the possibility that social identity concerns may also shape the judgment of non-social properties-namely, olfactory judgment. In two experiments, we presented Swiss and non-Swiss participants with the odor of chocolate, for which Switzerland is world-famous, and a control odor (popcorn). Swiss participants primed with Swiss identity reported the odor of chocolate (but not popcorn) as more intense than non-Swiss participants (Experiments 1 and 2) and than Swiss participants primed with individual identity or not primed (Experiment 2). The self-reported intensity of chocolate smell tended to increase as identity accessibility increased-but only among Swiss participants (Experiment 1). These results suggest that identity priming can counter-act classic sensory habituation effects, allowing identity-relevant smells to maintain their intensity after repeated presentations. This suggests that social identity dynamically influences sensory judgment. We discuss the potential implications for models of social identity and chemosensory perception.

  14. Developmental Changes and Individual Differences in Young Children's Moral Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smetana, Judith G.; Rote, Wendy M.; Jambon, Marc; Tasopoulos-Chan, Marina; Villalobos, Myriam; Comer, Jessamy

    2012-01-01

    Developmental trajectories and individual differences in 70 American middle-income 2.5- to 4-year olds' moral judgments were examined 3 times across 1 year using latent growth modeling. At Wave 1, children distinguished hypothetical moral from conventional transgressions on all criteria, but only older preschoolers did so when rating deserved…

  15. Beyond smile dynamics: mimicry and beliefs in judgments of smiles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maringer, M.; Krumhuber, E.G.; Fischer, A.H.; Niedenthal, P.M.

    2011-01-01

    The judgment that a smile is based on "true," usually positive, feelings affects social interaction. However, the processes underlying the interpretation of a smile as being more or less genuine are not well understood. The aim of the present research was to test predictions of the Simulation of Smi

  16. Perceptions of Teacher Characteristics and Student Judgments of Teacher Effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Harvey R.

    1988-01-01

    Uses a seven point Likert scale to examine the relationship between perceived teacher attractiveness, expertness, and trustworthiness and student judgment of teacher effectiveness. Correlations suggest that a more accurate view of teaching may be as an instance of social influence process. Urges further research to identify those cues that infer…

  17. Epistemological Development and Judgments and Reasoning about Teaching Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spence, Sarah; Helwig, Charles C.

    2013-01-01

    Children's, adolescents', and adults' (N = 96 7-8, 10-11, and 13-14-year-olds and university students) epistemological development and its relation to judgments and reasoning about teaching methods was examined. The domain (scientific or moral), nature of the topic (controversial or noncontroversial), and teaching method (direct instruction by…

  18. Epistemological Development and Judgments and Reasoning about Teaching Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spence, Sarah; Helwig, Charles C.

    2013-01-01

    Children's, adolescents', and adults' (N = 96 7-8, 10-11, and 13-14-year-olds and university students) epistemological development and its relation to judgments and reasoning about teaching methods was examined. The domain (scientific or moral), nature of the topic (controversial or noncontroversial), and teaching method (direct…

  19. Audiovisual Simultaneity Judgment and Rapid Recalibration throughout the Lifespan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noel, Jean-Paul; De Niear, Matthew; Van der Burg, Erik; Wallace, Mark T

    2016-01-01

    Multisensory interactions are well established to convey an array of perceptual and behavioral benefits. One of the key features of multisensory interactions is the temporal structure of the stimuli combined. In an effort to better characterize how temporal factors influence multisensory interactions across the lifespan, we examined audiovisual simultaneity judgment and the degree of rapid recalibration to paired audiovisual stimuli (Flash-Beep and Speech) in a sample of 220 participants ranging from 7 to 86 years of age. Results demonstrate a surprisingly protracted developmental time-course for both audiovisual simultaneity judgment and rapid recalibration, with neither reaching maturity until well into adolescence. Interestingly, correlational analyses revealed that audiovisual simultaneity judgments (i.e., the size of the audiovisual temporal window of simultaneity) and rapid recalibration significantly co-varied as a function of age. Together, our results represent the most complete description of age-related changes in audiovisual simultaneity judgments to date, as well as being the first to describe changes in the degree of rapid recalibration as a function of age. We propose that the developmental time-course of rapid recalibration scaffolds the maturation of more durable audiovisual temporal representations.

  20. Children's Moral and Affective Judgments Regarding Provocation and Retaliation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smetana, Judith G.; Campione-Barr, Nicole; Yell, Nicole

    2003-01-01

    Children's moral judgments, attributions of emotion, and their associations were examined in hypothetical, prototypical situations and situations of provocation and peer retaliation. Children judged prototypical and provoked moral transgressions (hitting and teasing). Hypothetical moral transgressions were judged to be more serious and deserving…

  1. Preschool Children's Judgments about Hypothetical and Actual Transgressions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smetana, Judith G.; And Others

    1993-01-01

    Examined three and four year olds' judgments about transgressions. Children judged moral transgressions to be more serious, punishable, and wrong than conventional transgressions; hypothetical transgressions to be more wrong independent of rules than actual transgressions; and hypothetical moral transgressions to be more independent of rules than…

  2. A neuroscientific approach to normative judgment in law and justice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodenough, Oliver R; Prehn, Kristin

    2004-11-29

    Developments in cognitive neuroscience are providing new insights into the nature of normative judgment. Traditional views in such disciplines as philosophy, religion, law, psychology and economics have differed over the role and usefulness of intuition and emotion in judging blameworthiness. Cognitive psychology and neurobiology provide new tools and methods for studying questions of normative judgment. Recently, a consensus view has emerged, which recognizes important roles for emotion and intuition and which suggests that normative judgment is a distributed process in the brain. Testing this approach through lesion and scanning studies has linked a set of brain regions to such judgment, including the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, orbitofrontal cortex, posterior cingulate cortex and posterior superior temporal sulcus. Better models of emotion and intuition will help provide further clarification of the processes involved. The study of law and justice is less well developed. We advance a model of law in the brain which suggests that law can recruit a wider variety of sources of information and paths of processing than do the intuitive moral responses that have been studied so far. We propose specific hypotheses and lines of further research that could help test this approach.

  3. Moral Judgment Development across Cultures: Revisiting Kohlberg's Universality Claims

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, John C.; Basinger, Karen S.; Grime, Rebecca L.; Snarey, John R.

    2007-01-01

    This article revisits Kohlberg's cognitive developmental claims that stages of moral judgment, facilitative processes of social perspective-taking, and moral values are commonly identifiable across cultures. Snarey [Snarey, J. (1985). "The cross-cultural universality of social-moral development: A critical review of Kohlbergian research."…

  4. Context Effects in Valuation, Judgment and Choice: A Neuroscientific Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Hytönen (Kaisa)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractIt is well known that our choices and judgments depend on the context. For instance, prior experiences can influence subsequent decisions. People tend to make riskier decisions if they have a chance to win back a previous loss or if they can gamble with previously won money. Another

  5. Audiovisual Simultaneity Judgment and Rapid Recalibration throughout the Lifespan

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Niear, Matthew; Van der Burg, Erik; Wallace, Mark T.

    2016-01-01

    Multisensory interactions are well established to convey an array of perceptual and behavioral benefits. One of the key features of multisensory interactions is the temporal structure of the stimuli combined. In an effort to better characterize how temporal factors influence multisensory interactions across the lifespan, we examined audiovisual simultaneity judgment and the degree of rapid recalibration to paired audiovisual stimuli (Flash-Beep and Speech) in a sample of 220 participants ranging from 7 to 86 years of age. Results demonstrate a surprisingly protracted developmental time-course for both audiovisual simultaneity judgment and rapid recalibration, with neither reaching maturity until well into adolescence. Interestingly, correlational analyses revealed that audiovisual simultaneity judgments (i.e., the size of the audiovisual temporal window of simultaneity) and rapid recalibration significantly co-varied as a function of age. Together, our results represent the most complete description of age-related changes in audiovisual simultaneity judgments to date, as well as being the first to describe changes in the degree of rapid recalibration as a function of age. We propose that the developmental time-course of rapid recalibration scaffolds the maturation of more durable audiovisual temporal representations. PMID:27551918

  6. [Implicit value judgments in the measurement of health inequalities].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Sam; King, Nicholas B; Meersman, Stephen C; E Reichman, Marsha; Breen, Nancy; Lynch, John

    2014-04-01

    Quantitative estimates of the magnitude, direction, and rate of change of health inequalities play a crucial role in creating and assessing policies aimed at eliminating the disproportionate burden of disease in disadvantaged populations. It is generally assumed that the measurement of health inequalities is a value-neutral process, providing objective data that are then interpreted using normative judgments about whether a particular distribution of health is just, fair, or socially acceptable. We discuss five examples in which normative judgments play a role in the measurement process itself, through either the selection of one measurement strategy to the exclusion of others or the selection of the type, significance, or weight assigned to the variables being measured. Overall, we find that many commonly used measures of inequality are value laden and that the normative judgments implicit in these measures have important consequences for interpreting and responding to health inequalities. Because values implicit in the generation of health inequality measures may lead to radically different interpretations of the same underlying data,we urge researchers to explicitly consider and transparently discuss the normative judgments underlying their measures. We also urge policymakers and other consumers of health inequalities data to pay close attention to the measures on which they base their assessments of current and future health policies.

  7. Implicit value judgments in the measurement of health inequalities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Sam; King, Nicholas B; Meersman, Stephen C; Reichman, Marsha E; Breen, Nancy; Lynch, John

    2010-03-01

    Quantitative estimates of the magnitude, direction, and rate of change of health inequalities play a crucial role in creating and assessing policies aimed at eliminating the disproportionate burden of disease in disadvantaged populations. It is generally assumed that the measurement of health inequalities is a value-neutral process, providing objective data that are then interpreted using normative judgments about whether a particular distribution of health is just, fair, or socially acceptable. We discuss five examples in which normative judgments play a role in the measurement process itself, through either the selection of one measurement strategy to the exclusion of others or the selection of the type, significance, or weight assigned to the variables being measured. Overall, we find that many commonly used measures of inequality are value laden and that the normative judgments implicit in these measures have important consequences for interpreting and responding to health inequalities. Because values implicit in the generation of health inequality measures may lead to radically different interpretations of the same underlying data, we urge researchers to explicitly consider and transparently discuss the normative judgments underlying their measures. We also urge policymakers and other consumers of health inequalities data to pay close attention to the measures on which they base their assessments of current and future health policies.

  8. Context Effects in Valuation, Judgment and Choice: A Neuroscientific Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Hytönen (Kaisa)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractIt is well known that our choices and judgments depend on the context. For instance, prior experiences can influence subsequent decisions. People tend to make riskier decisions if they have a chance to win back a previous loss or if they can gamble with previously won money. Another exam

  9. Is AIDS a Biasing Factor in Teacher Judgment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, David W.; Hulecki, Mary B.

    1989-01-01

    Regular-education, third-grade teachers (n=91) in Indiana reviewed one of two psychological reports, identical except that one reported a diagnosis of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) and one reported a diagnosis of rheumatic fever. AIDS was not found to be a biasing factor in teachers' judgments regarding special education placement.…

  10. Evolving Judgments of Terror Risks: Foresight, Hindsight, and Emotion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischhoff, Baruch; Gonzalez, Roxana M.; Lerner, Jennifer S.; Small, Deborah A.

    2005-01-01

    The authors examined the evolution of cognitive and emotional responses to terror risks for a nationally representative sample of Americans between late 2001 and late 2002. Respondents' risk judgments changed in ways consistent with their reported personal experiences. However, they did not recognize these changes, producing hindsight bias in…

  11. Sex Differences in Judgments of Male and Female Role Stereotypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getz, Sandra K.; Herman, Jeanne B.

    This study tests whether or not there are sex differences in judgments of the success of various male and female lifestyles, and if so, what differential standards are applied to males and females. The most interesting result of this study is that college men and women use the same standards to judge the success of male lifestyles but different…

  12. Source Effects and Plausibility Judgments When Reading about Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Doug; Seyranian, Viviane; Sinatra, Gale M.

    2014-01-01

    Gaps between what scientists and laypeople find plausible may act as a barrier to learning complex and/or controversial socioscientific concepts. For example, individuals may consider scientific explanations that human activities are causing current climate change as implausible. This plausibility judgment may be due-in part-to individuals'…

  13. Studying Mental Health Counselor Clinical Judgment: A Response to Falvey and Colleagues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strohmer, Douglas C.; Spengler, Paul M.

    1993-01-01

    Reviews material related to American Mental Health Counselors Association Clinical Judgment Project. Recommendations include invoking more sensitive analyses of clinical judgment process, establishing defensible diagnostic and treatment criteria, attending to threats to statistical conclusion validity, and increasing attention to counselor…

  14. Consumer ethnocentrism on product judgment and willingness to buy: a meta-analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zhou, Xing; Guo, Gongxing

    2017-01-01

    .... The meta-analysis confirms that consumer ethnocentrism has a positive influence on domestic product judgment and willingness to buy, while it has a negative influence on foreign product judgment...

  15. Exact Probability Distribution versus Entropy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerstin Andersson

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The problem  addressed concerns the determination of the average number of successive attempts  of guessing  a word of a certain  length consisting of letters with given probabilities of occurrence. Both first- and second-order approximations  to a natural language are considered.  The guessing strategy used is guessing words in decreasing order of probability. When word and alphabet sizes are large, approximations  are necessary in order to estimate the number of guesses.  Several  kinds of approximations  are discussed demonstrating moderate requirements regarding both memory and central processing unit (CPU time. When considering realistic  sizes of alphabets and words (100, the number of guesses can be estimated  within minutes with reasonable accuracy (a few percent and may therefore constitute an alternative to, e.g., various entropy expressions.  For many probability  distributions,  the density of the logarithm of probability products is close to a normal distribution. For those cases, it is possible to derive an analytical expression for the average number of guesses. The proportion  of guesses needed on average compared to the total number  decreases almost exponentially with the word length. The leading term in an asymptotic  expansion can be used to estimate the number of guesses for large word lengths. Comparisons with analytical lower bounds and entropy expressions are also provided.

  16. Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe

    2016-01-01

    Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…

  17. Conditional Independence in Applied Probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeiffer, Paul E.

    This material assumes the user has the background provided by a good undergraduate course in applied probability. It is felt that introductory courses in calculus, linear algebra, and perhaps some differential equations should provide the requisite experience and proficiency with mathematical concepts, notation, and argument. The document is…

  18. Fuzzy Markov chains: uncertain probabilities

    OpenAIRE

    2002-01-01

    We consider finite Markov chains where there are uncertainties in some of the transition probabilities. These uncertainties are modeled by fuzzy numbers. Using a restricted fuzzy matrix multiplication we investigate the properties of regular, and absorbing, fuzzy Markov chains and show that the basic properties of these classical Markov chains generalize to fuzzy Markov chains.

  19. Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe

    2016-01-01

    Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…

  20. DECOFF Probabilities of Failed Operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gintautas, Tomas

    A statistical procedure of estimation of Probabilities of Failed Operations is described and exemplified using ECMWF weather forecasts and SIMO output from Rotor Lift test case models. Also safety factor influence is investigated. DECOFF statistical method is benchmarked against standard Alpha...

  1. A Novel Approach to Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Kafri, Oded

    2016-01-01

    When P indistinguishable balls are randomly distributed among L distinguishable boxes, and considering the dense system in which P much greater than L, our natural intuition tells us that the box with the average number of balls has the highest probability and that none of boxes are empty; however in reality, the probability of the empty box is always the highest. This fact is with contradistinction to sparse system in which the number of balls is smaller than the number of boxes (i.e. energy distribution in gas) in which the average value has the highest probability. Here we show that when we postulate the requirement that all possible configurations of balls in the boxes have equal probabilities, a realistic "long tail" distribution is obtained. This formalism when applied for sparse systems converges to distributions in which the average is preferred. We calculate some of the distributions resulted from this postulate and obtain most of the known distributions in nature, namely, Zipf law, Benford law, part...

  2. Probability representations of fuzzy systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Hongxing

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, the probability significance of fuzzy systems is revealed. It is pointed out that COG method, a defuzzification technique used commonly in fuzzy systems, is reasonable and is the optimal method in the sense of mean square. Based on different fuzzy implication operators, several typical probability distributions such as Zadeh distribution, Mamdani distribution, Lukasiewicz distribution, etc. are given. Those distributions act as "inner kernels" of fuzzy systems. Furthermore, by some properties of probability distributions of fuzzy systems, it is also demonstrated that CRI method, proposed by Zadeh, for constructing fuzzy systems is basically reasonable and effective. Besides, the special action of uniform probability distributions in fuzzy systems is characterized. Finally, the relationship between CRI method and triple I method is discussed. In the sense of construction of fuzzy systems, when restricting three fuzzy implication operators in triple I method to the same operator, CRI method and triple I method may be related in the following three basic ways: 1) Two methods are equivalent; 2) the latter is a degeneration of the former; 3) the latter is trivial whereas the former is not. When three fuzzy implication operators in triple I method are not restricted to the same operator, CRI method is a special case of triple I method; that is, triple I method is a more comprehensive algorithm. Since triple I method has a good logical foundation and comprises an idea of optimization of reasoning, triple I method will possess a beautiful vista of application.

  3. The impact of attention on judgments of frequency and duration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabell Winkler

    Full Text Available Previous studies that examined human judgments of frequency and duration found an asymmetrical relationship: While frequency judgments were quite accurate and independent of stimulus duration, duration judgments were highly dependent upon stimulus frequency. A potential explanation for these findings is that the asymmetry is moderated by the amount of attention directed to the stimuli. In the current experiment, participants' attention was manipulated in two ways: (a intrinsically, by varying the type and arousal potential of the stimuli (names, low-arousal and high-arousal pictures, and (b extrinsically, by varying the physical effort participants expended during the stimulus presentation (by lifting a dumbbell vs. relaxing the arm. Participants processed stimuli with varying presentation frequencies and durations and were subsequently asked to estimate the frequency and duration of each stimulus. Sensitivity to duration increased for pictures in general, especially when processed under physical effort. A large effect of stimulus frequency on duration judgments was obtained for all experimental conditions, but a similar large effect of presentation duration on frequency judgments emerged only in the conditions that could be expected to draw high amounts of attention to the stimuli: when pictures were judged under high physical effort. Almost no difference in the mutual impact of frequency and duration was obtained for low-arousal or high-arousal pictures. The mechanisms underlying the simultaneous processing of frequency and duration are discussed with respect to existing models derived from animal research. Options for the extension of such models to human processing of frequency and duration are suggested.

  4. Forecasting trial outcomes: lawyers assign higher probability to possibilities that are described in greater detail.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Craig R; Birke, Richard

    2002-04-01

    The study of judgment under uncertainty has revealed that people judge the probability of an event to be higher when the event is described as a disjunction of constituent events or when they judge constituent events separately. These observations have motivated the development of support theory (Y. Rottenstreich & A. Tversky, 1997; A. Tversky & D. J. Koehler, 1994), a descriptive model of judgment under uncertainty. The major predictions of support theory are that (1) the judged probabilities of complementary events sum to 1; (2) the judged probabilities of n > 2 exclusive and exhaustive events generally sum to more than 1; and (3) the judged probability of an event generally increases when it is described as a disjunction of specific possibilities. We test these predictions in 6 studies of experienced attorneys who judged the likelihood of particular trial outcomes or were asked to offer advice on whether or not to accept a settlement offer. The results demonstrate that attorneys are indeed susceptible to bias in forecasting trial outcomes, consistent with support theory.

  5. Similarities and Differences in Chinese and Caucasian Adults' Use of Facial Cues for Trustworthiness Judgments: e34859

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Fen Xu; Dingcheng Wu; Rie Toriyama; Fengling Ma; Shoji Itakura; Kang Lee

    2012-01-01

    .... Existing research suggests that although accurate judgments of another's trustworthiness require extensive interactions with the person, we often make trustworthiness judgments based on facial cues...

  6. Anchoring Errors in Clinical Judgments: Type I Error, Adjustment, or Mitigation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Michael V.; And Others

    1990-01-01

    Conducted two studies to clarify nature of anchoring errors in clinical judgments. Judgments from 103 undergraduates in Study 1 evidenced neither anchoring errors nor gender differences. Judgments from 157 psychologists in Study 2 affirmed adjustment and mitigation hypotheses over anchoring hypothesis alone. Mitigation process appeared adaptable…

  7. The Memory State Heuristic: A Formal Model Based on Repeated Recognition Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castela, Marta; Erdfelder, Edgar

    2017-01-01

    The recognition heuristic (RH) theory predicts that, in comparative judgment tasks, if one object is recognized and the other is not, the recognized one is chosen. The memory-state heuristic (MSH) extends the RH by assuming that choices are not affected by recognition judgments per se, but by the memory states underlying these judgments (i.e.,…

  8. The Effect of Metacomprehension Judgment Task on Comprehension Monitoring and Metacognitive Accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozuru, Yasuhiro; Kurby, Christopher A.; McNamara, Danielle S.

    2012-01-01

    The authors investigated differences in the processes underlying two types of metacomprehension judgments: judgments of difficulty and predictions of performance (JOD vs. POP). An experiment was conducted to assess whether these two types of judgments aligned with different types of processing cues, and whether their accuracy correlated with…

  9. Information Repetition in Evaluative Judgments: Easy to Monitor, Hard to Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unkelbach, Christian; Fiedler, Klaus; Freytag, Peter

    2007-01-01

    The sampling approach [Fiedler, K. (2000a). "Beware of samples! A cognitive-ecological sampling approach to judgment biases." "Psychological Review, 107"(4), 659-676.] attributes judgment biases to the information given in a sample. Because people usually do not monitor the constraints of samples and do not control their judgments accordingly,…

  10. Subjective Confidence in Perceptual Judgments: A Test of the Self-Consistency Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koriat, Asher

    2011-01-01

    Two questions about subjective confidence in perceptual judgments are examined: the bases for these judgments and the reasons for their accuracy. Confidence in perceptual judgments has been claimed to rest on qualitatively different processes than confidence in memory tasks. However, predictions from a self-consistency model (SCM), which had been…

  11. Subjective Confidence in Perceptual Judgments: A Test of the Self-Consistency Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koriat, Asher

    2011-01-01

    Two questions about subjective confidence in perceptual judgments are examined: the bases for these judgments and the reasons for their accuracy. Confidence in perceptual judgments has been claimed to rest on qualitatively different processes than confidence in memory tasks. However, predictions from a self-consistency model (SCM), which had been…

  12. Crime and Punishment: Distinguishing the Roles of Causal and Intentional Analyses in Moral Judgment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cushman, Fiery

    2008-01-01

    Recent research in moral psychology has attempted to characterize patterns of moral judgments of actions in terms of the causal and intentional properties of those actions. The present study directly compares the roles of consequence, causation, belief and desire in determining moral judgments. Judgments of the wrongness or permissibility of…

  13. Standards to Guide the Use of Clinical Judgment in the Field of Intellectual Disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luckasson, Ruth; Schalock, Robert L

    2015-06-01

    The purpose of this article is to discuss 10 Clinical Judgment Standards and associated best practice indicators based on current literature and an understanding of the context of clinical judgment. Throughout the article, we stress the important role that clinical judgment plays in formulating valid and precise decisions and recommendations regarding diagnosis, classification, and planning supports.

  14. The Memory State Heuristic: A Formal Model Based on Repeated Recognition Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castela, Marta; Erdfelder, Edgar

    2017-01-01

    The recognition heuristic (RH) theory predicts that, in comparative judgment tasks, if one object is recognized and the other is not, the recognized one is chosen. The memory-state heuristic (MSH) extends the RH by assuming that choices are not affected by recognition judgments per se, but by the memory states underlying these judgments (i.e.,…

  15. Probability theory plus noise: Replies to Crupi and Tentori (2016) and to Nilsson, Juslin, and Winman (2016).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

    2016-01-01

    A standard assumption in much of current psychology is that people do not reason about probability using the rules of probability theory but instead use various heuristics or "rules of thumb," which can produce systematic reasoning biases. In Costello and Watts (2014), we showed that a number of these biases can be explained by a model where people reason according to probability theory but are subject to random noise. More importantly, that model also predicted agreement with probability theory for certain expressions that cancel the effects of random noise: Experimental results strongly confirmed this prediction, showing that probabilistic reasoning is simultaneously systematically biased and "surprisingly rational." In their commentaries on that paper, both Crupi and Tentori (2016) and Nilsson, Juslin, and Winman (2016) point to various experimental results that, they suggest, our model cannot explain. In this reply, we show that our probability theory plus noise model can in fact explain every one of the results identified by these authors. This gives a degree of additional support to the view that people's probability judgments embody the rational rules of probability theory and that biases in those judgments can be explained as simply effects of random noise.

  16. Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mishra, Srikanta [INTERA Inc., Austin, TX (United States)

    2002-02-01

    This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from a recent performance assessment study for the Yucca Mountain project. Goodness of fit techniques are also discussed, followed by an overview of how distribution fitting is accomplished in commercial software packages. The issue of subjective assessment of probabilities is dealt with in terms of the maximum entropy distribution selection approach, as well as some common rules for codifying informal expert judgment. Formal expert elicitation protocols are discussed next, and are based primarily on the guidance provided by the US NRC. The Bayesian framework for updating prior distributions (beliefs) when new information becomes available is discussed. A simple numerical approach is presented for facilitating practical applications of the Bayes theorem. Finally, a systematic framework for assigning distributions is presented: (a) for the situation where enough data are available to define an empirical CDF or fit a parametric model to the data, and (b) to deal with the situation where only a limited amount of information is available.

  17. Understanding Y haplotype matching probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, Charles H

    2014-01-01

    The Y haplotype population-genetic terrain is better explored from a fresh perspective rather than by analogy with the more familiar autosomal ideas. For haplotype matching probabilities, versus for autosomal matching probabilities, explicit attention to modelling - such as how evolution got us where we are - is much more important while consideration of population frequency is much less so. This paper explores, extends, and explains some of the concepts of "Fundamental problem of forensic mathematics - the evidential strength of a rare haplotype match". That earlier paper presented and validated a "kappa method" formula for the evidential strength when a suspect matches a previously unseen haplotype (such as a Y-haplotype) at the crime scene. Mathematical implications of the kappa method are intuitive and reasonable. Suspicions to the contrary raised in rest on elementary errors. Critical to deriving the kappa method or any sensible evidential calculation is understanding that thinking about haplotype population frequency is a red herring; the pivotal question is one of matching probability. But confusion between the two is unfortunately institutionalized in much of the forensic world. Examples make clear why (matching) probability is not (population) frequency and why uncertainty intervals on matching probabilities are merely confused thinking. Forensic matching calculations should be based on a model, on stipulated premises. The model inevitably only approximates reality, and any error in the results comes only from error in the model, the inexactness of the approximation. Sampling variation does not measure that inexactness and hence is not helpful in explaining evidence and is in fact an impediment. Alternative haplotype matching probability approaches that various authors have considered are reviewed. Some are based on no model and cannot be taken seriously. For the others, some evaluation of the models is discussed. Recent evidence supports the adequacy of

  18. Probability biases as Bayesian inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre; C. R. Martins

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.

  19. Cluster pre-existence probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rajeswari, N.S.; Vijayaraghavan, K.R.; Balasubramaniam, M. [Bharathiar University, Department of Physics, Coimbatore (India)

    2011-10-15

    Pre-existence probability of the fragments for the complete binary spectrum of different systems such as {sup 56}Ni, {sup 116}Ba, {sup 226}Ra and {sup 256}Fm are calculated, from the overlapping part of the interaction potential using the WKB approximation. The role of reduced mass as well as the classical hydrodynamical mass in the WKB method is analysed. Within WKB, even for negative Q -value systems, the pre-existence probability is calculated. The calculations reveal rich structural information. The calculated results are compared with the values of preformed cluster model of Gupta and collaborators. The mass asymmetry motion is shown here for the first time as a part of relative separation motion. (orig.)

  20. Large deviations and idempotent probability

    CERN Document Server

    Puhalskii, Anatolii

    2001-01-01

    In the view of many probabilists, author Anatolii Puhalskii''s research results stand among the most significant achievements in the modern theory of large deviations. In fact, his work marked a turning point in the depth of our understanding of the connections between the large deviation principle (LDP) and well-known methods for establishing weak convergence results.Large Deviations and Idempotent Probability expounds upon the recent methodology of building large deviation theory along the lines of weak convergence theory. The author develops an idempotent (or maxitive) probability theory, introduces idempotent analogues of martingales (maxingales), Wiener and Poisson processes, and Ito differential equations, and studies their properties. The large deviation principle for stochastic processes is formulated as a certain type of convergence of stochastic processes to idempotent processes. The author calls this large deviation convergence.The approach to establishing large deviation convergence uses novel com...