Self-affinity and nonextensivity of sunspots

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moret, M.A.

2014-01-01

In this paper we study the time series of sunspots by using two different approaches, analyzing its self-affine behavior and studying its distribution. The long-range correlation exponent α has been calculated via Detrended Fluctuation Analysis and the power law vanishes to values greater than 11 years. On the other hand, the distribution of the sunspots obeys a q-exponential decay that suggests a non-extensive behavior. This observed characteristic seems to take an alternative interpretation of the sunspots dynamics. The present findings suggest us to propose a dynamic model of sunspots formation based on a nonlinear Fokker–Planck equation. Therefore its dynamic process follows the generalized thermostatistical formalism.

LOOKING FOR GRANULATION AND PERIODICITY IMPRINTS IN THE SUNSPOT TIME SERIES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lopes, Ilídio [Centro Multidisciplinar de Astrofísica, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal); Silva, Hugo G., E-mail: ilidio.lopes@tecnico.ulisboa.pt, E-mail: hgsilva@uevora.pt [Departamento de Física, ECT, Instituto de Ciências da Terra, Universidade de Évora, Rua Romão Ramalho 59, 7002-554 Évora (Portugal)

2015-05-10

The sunspot activity is the end result of the cyclic destruction and regeneration of magnetic fields by the dynamo action. We propose a new method to analyze the daily sunspot areas data recorded since 1874. By computing the power spectral density of daily data series using the Mexican hat wavelet, we found a power spectrum with a well-defined shape, characterized by three features. The first term is the 22 yr solar magnetic cycle, estimated in our work to be 18.43 yr. The second term is related to the daily volatility of sunspots. This term is most likely produced by the turbulent motions linked to the solar granulation. The last term corresponds to a periodic source associated with the solar magnetic activity, for which the maximum power spectral density occurs at 22.67 days. This value is part of the 22–27 day periodicity region that shows an above-average intensity in the power spectra. The origin of this 22.67 day periodic process is not clearly identified, and there is a possibility that it can be produced by convective flows inside the star. The study clearly shows a north–south asymmetry. The 18.43 yr periodical source is correlated between the two hemispheres, but the 22.67 day one is not correlated. It is shown that toward the large timescales an excess occurs in the northern hemisphere, especially near the previous two periodic sources. To further investigate the 22.67 day periodicity, we made a Lomb–Scargle spectral analysis. The study suggests that this periodicity is distinct from others found nearby.

SOLAR CYCLE 24: CURIOUS CHANGES IN THE RELATIVE NUMBERS OF SUNSPOT GROUP TYPES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V. B.; Ozguc, A.; Rozelot, J. P.

2014-01-01

Here, we analyze different sunspot group (SG) behaviors from the points of view of both the sunspot counts (SSCs) and the number of SGs, in four categories, for the time period of 1982 January-2014 May. These categories include data from simple (A and B), medium (C), large (D, E, and F), and decaying (H) SGs. We investigate temporal variations of all data sets used in this study and find the following results. (1) There is a very significant decrease in the large groups' SSCs and the number of SGs in solar cycle 24 (cycle 24) compared to cycles 21-23. (2) There is no strong variation in the decaying groups' data sets for the entire investigated time interval. (3) Medium group data show a gradual decrease for the last three cycles. (4) A significant decrease occurred in the small groups during solar cycle 23, while no strong changes show in the current cycle (cycle 24) compared to the previous ones. We confirm that the temporal behavior of all categories is quite different from cycle to cycle and it is especially flagrant in solar cycle 24. Thus, we argue that the reduced absolute number of the large SGs is largely, if not solely, responsible for the weak cycle 24. These results might be important for long-term space weather predictions to understand the rate of formation of different groups of sunspots during a solar cycle and the possible consequences for the long-term geomagnetic activity

Period of sunspot numbers is 11. 02653720 years (11 years 9 days 16 hours 18 minutes 0 seconds)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Norita, S [Miyazaki Univ. (Japan). Faculty of Engineering

1976-09-01

In the statistical analysis of time series there have been applied usually the stationary stochastic process or the Markov stochastic process and recently there are applied remarkably an autoregressive process, a stochastic difference equation, an autoregressive-moving average process, a moving average process, the Whittaker periodogram, the correlogram, Schuster periodogram, chi-squared periodogram, level crossings, harmonic process, difference method, spectral density and first order vector equation, but in special case it is desirable to apply the nonstationary stocastic process. In this paper we introduce a stationarity into the autoregressive process and then it is the first purpose to compute precisely the period of sunspot numbers. The result up to the eighth places at the decimal point was obtained that its period is 11.02653720 years, that is, 11 years 9 days 16 hours 18 minutes 0 seconds. This is considered to be more relevant than numerical values by which Schuster (1906) and Yule (1927) had calculated the respective 11.125 years and 10.60 years in the past. We revised the theoretical expression in the thesis of Anderson, Shaman, Lindgren, Brillinger, Newbold, Parzen, Kingman, Van Ness and Kenneth, etc. and executed the numerical analysis of period of sunspot numbers investigated now.

Period of sunspot numbers is 11.02653720 years (11 years 9 days 16 hours 18 minutes 0 seconds)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Norita, Sadataka

1976-01-01

In the statistical analysis of time series there have been applied usually the stationary stochastic process or the Markov stochastic process and recently there are applied remarkably an autoregressive process, a stochastic difference equation, an autoregressive-moving average process, a moving average process, the Whittaker periodogram, the correlogram, Schuster periodogram, chi-squared periodogram, level crossings, harmonic process, difference method, spectral density and first order vector equation, but in special case it is desirable to apply the nonstationary stocastic process. In this paper we introduce an stationarity into the autoregressive process and then it is the first purpose to compute precisely period of sunspot numbers. The result up to the eighth places at the decimal point was obtained that its period is 11.02653720 years, that is, 11 years 9 days 16 hours 18 minutes 0 seconds. This is considered to be more relevant than numerical values by which Schuster (1906) and Yule (1927) had calculated the respective 11.125 years and 10.60 years in the past. We revised the theoretical expression in the thesis of Anderson, Shaman, Lindgren, Brillinger, Newbold, Parzen, Kingman, Van Ness and Kenneth, etc. and executed the numerical analysis of period of sunspot numbers investigated now. (auth.)

Worldwide variation in atmospheric noise intensities with sunspot number: an in-depth look at the 20 to 24 hour seasonal time block

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joglekar, P.J.; Sathiamurthy, T.S.

1975-01-01

Comparisons of the variation of atmospheric radio noise intensities for 20 to 24 hr to sunspot numbers have been completed. Statistical dependence between the noise intensities and sunspot numbers was found for different seasons at a number of frequencies for many locations in the global network of ARN-2 noise recorders. The noise intensities generally tended to decrease with sunspot number in the range from 50 kHz to 5 MHz, which is presumed to be due to increases in residual ionospheric absorption during nighttime. At frequencies greater than 5 MHz, noise intensities increased with sunspot number in many cases, which would be expected from our present knowledge of ionospheric behavior in the HF range. By convention, CCIR treats year-to-year variation in the noise intensities as random and includes them in the prediction uncertainty sigma /sub Fam/ (for which one value is given at a frequency for a seasonal time block for all locations) in system performance evaluation. An error analysis on a global basis shows that a large portion of the year-to-year variability is due to sunspot variation. This suggests the possibility of improved noise estimates. (auth)

On the insignificance of Herschel's sunspot correlation

Science.gov (United States)

Love, Jeffrey J.

2013-08-01

We examine William Herschel's hypothesis that solar-cycle variation of the Sun's irradiance has a modulating effect on the Earth's climate and that this is, specifically, manifested as an anticorrelation between sunspot number and the market price of wheat. Since Herschel first proposed his hypothesis in 1801, it has been regarded with both interest and skepticism. Recently, reports have been published that either support Herschel's hypothesis or rely on its validity. As a test of Herschel's hypothesis, we seek to reject a null hypothesis of a statistically random correlation between historical sunspot numbers, wheat prices in London and the United States, and wheat farm yields in the United States. We employ binary-correlation, Pearson-correlation, and frequency-domain methods. We test our methods using a historical geomagnetic activity index, well known to be causally correlated with sunspot number. As expected, the measured correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity would be an unlikely realization of random data; the correlation is "statistically significant." On the other hand, measured correlations between sunspot number and wheat price and wheat yield data would be very likely realizations of random data; these correlations are "insignificant." Therefore, Herschel's hypothesis must be regarded with skepticism. We compare and contrast our results with those of other researchers. We discuss procedures for evaluating hypotheses that are formulated from historical data.

Towards a first detailed reconstruction of sunspot information over the last 150 years

Science.gov (United States)

Lefevre, Laure; Clette, Frédéric

2013-04-01

With four centuries of solar evolution, the International Sunspot Number (SSN) forms the longest solar time series currently available. It provides an essential reference for understanding and quantifying how the solar output has varied over decades and centuries and thus for assessing the variations of the main natural forcing on the Earth climate. For such a quantitative use, this unique time-series must be closely monitored for any possible biases and drifts. This is the main objective of the Sunspot Workshops organized jointly by the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB) since 2010. Here, we will report about some recent outcomes of past workshops, like diagnostics of scaling errors and their proposed corrections, or the recent disagreement between the sunspot sumber and other solar indices like the 10.7cm radio flux. Our most recent analyses indicate that while part of this divergence may be due to a calibration drift in the SSN, it also results from an intrinsic change in the global magnetic parameters of sunspots and solar active regions, suggesting a possible transition to a new activity regime. Going beyond the SSN series, in the framework of the SOTERIA, TOSCA and SOLID projects, we produced a survey of all existing catalogs providing detailed sunspot information and we also located different primary solar images and drawing collections that can be exploitable to complement the existing catalogs (COMESEP project). These are first steps towards the construction of a multi-parametric time series of multiple sunspot group properties over at least the last 150 years, allowing to reconstruct and extend the current 1-D SSN series. By bringing new spatial, morphological and evolutionary information, such a data set should bring major advances for the modeling of the solar dynamo and solar irradiance. We will present here the current status of this work. The catalog now extends over the last 3 cycles (Lefevre & Clette 2011

Towards the automatic detection and analysis of sunspot rotation

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Daniel S.; Walker, Andrew P.

2016-10-01

Torsional rotation of sunspots have been noted by many authors over the past century. Sunspots have been observed to rotate up to the order of 200 degrees over 8-10 days, and these have often been linked with eruptive behaviour such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections. However, most studies in the literature are case studies or small-number studies which suffer from selection bias. In order to better understand sunspot rotation and its impact on the corona, unbiased large-sample statistical studies are required (including both rotating and non-rotating sunspots). While this can be done manually, a better approach is to automate the detection and analysis of rotating sunspots using robust methods with well characterised uncertainties. The SDO/HMI instrument provide long-duration, high-resolution and high-cadence continuum observations suitable for extracting a large number of examples of rotating sunspots. This presentation will outline the analysis of SDI/HMI data to determine the rotation (and non-rotation) profiles of sunspots for the complete duration of their transit across the solar disk, along with how this can be extended to automatically identify sunspots and initiate their analysis.

Sunspots During the Maunder Minimum from Machina Coelestis by Hevelius

Science.gov (United States)

Carrasco, V. M. S.; Álvarez, J. Villalba; Vaquero, J. M.

2015-10-01

We revisited the sunspot observations published by Johannes Hevelius in his book Machina Coelestis (1679) corresponding to the period of 1653 - 1675 (just in the middle of the Maunder Minimum). We show detailed translations of the original Latin texts describing the sunspot records and provide the general context of these sunspot observations. From this source, we present an estimate of the annual values of the group sunspot number based only on the records that explicitly inform us of the presence or absence of sunspots. Although we obtain very low values of the group sunspot number, in accordance with a grand minimum of solar activity, these values are significantly higher in general than the values provided by Hoyt and Schatten ( Solar Phys. 179, 189, 1998) for the same period.

Sunspot activity and influenza pandemics: a statistical assessment of the purported association.

Science.gov (United States)

Towers, S

2017-10-01

Since 1978, a series of papers in the literature have claimed to find a significant association between sunspot activity and the timing of influenza pandemics. This paper examines these analyses, and attempts to recreate the three most recent statistical analyses by Ertel (1994), Tapping et al. (2001), and Yeung (2006), which all have purported to find a significant relationship between sunspot numbers and pandemic influenza. As will be discussed, each analysis had errors in the data. In addition, in each analysis arbitrary selections or assumptions were also made, and the authors did not assess the robustness of their analyses to changes in those arbitrary assumptions. Varying the arbitrary assumptions to other, equally valid, assumptions negates the claims of significance. Indeed, an arbitrary selection made in one of the analyses appears to have resulted in almost maximal apparent significance; changing it only slightly yields a null result. This analysis applies statistically rigorous methodology to examine the purported sunspot/pandemic link, using more statistically powerful un-binned analysis methods, rather than relying on arbitrarily binned data. The analyses are repeated using both the Wolf and Group sunspot numbers. In all cases, no statistically significant evidence of any association was found. However, while the focus in this particular analysis was on the purported relationship of influenza pandemics to sunspot activity, the faults found in the past analyses are common pitfalls; inattention to analysis reproducibility and robustness assessment are common problems in the sciences, that are unfortunately not noted often enough in review.

Long-term Modulation of Cosmic Ray Intensity in relation to Sunspot ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

it should be more closely connected with cosmic ray modulation than with other solar characteristics (sunspot numbers or coronal emission intensity). The intensity of galactic cosmic rays varies inversely with sunspot numbers, having their maximum intensity at the minimum of the 11-year sunspot cycle (Forbush 1954, 1958) ...

Sunspot drawings handwritten character recognition method based on deep learning

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Sheng; Zeng, Xiangyun; Lin, Ganghua; Zhao, Cui; Feng, Yongli; Tao, Jinping; Zhu, Daoyuan; Xiong, Li

2016-05-01

High accuracy scanned sunspot drawings handwritten characters recognition is an issue of critical importance to analyze sunspots movement and store them in the database. This paper presents a robust deep learning method for scanned sunspot drawings handwritten characters recognition. The convolution neural network (CNN) is one algorithm of deep learning which is truly successful in training of multi-layer network structure. CNN is used to train recognition model of handwritten character images which are extracted from the original sunspot drawings. We demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method on sunspot drawings provided by Chinese Academy Yunnan Observatory and obtain the daily full-disc sunspot numbers and sunspot areas from the sunspot drawings. The experimental results show that the proposed method achieves a high recognition accurate rate.

Using dynamo theory to predict the sunspot number during solar cycle 21

Science.gov (United States)

Schatten, K. H.; Scherrer, P. H.; Svalgaard, L.; Wilcox, J. M.

1978-01-01

On physical grounds it is suggested that the polar field strength of the sun near a solar minimum is closely related to the solar activity of the following cycle. Four methods of estimating the polar magnetic field strength of the sun near solar minimum are employed to provide an estimate of the yearly mean sunspot number of cycle 21 at solar maximum of 140 + or - 20. This estimate may be considered a first-order attempt to predict the cycle activity using one parameter of physical importance based upon dynamo theory.

Featured Image: Bright Dots in a Sunspot

Science.gov (United States)

Kohler, Susanna

2018-03-01

This image of a sunspot, located in in NOAA AR 12227, was captured in December 2014 by the 0.5-meter Solar Optical Telescope on board the Hinode spacecraft. This image was processed by a team of scientists led by Rahul Yadav (Udaipur Solar Observatory, Physical Research Laboratory Dewali, India) in order to examine the properties of umbral dots: transient, bright features observed in the umbral region (the central, darkest part) of a sunspot. By exploring these dots, Yadav and collaborators learned how their properties relate to the large-scale properties of the sunspots in which they form for instance, how do the number, intensities, or filling factors of dots relate to the size of a sunspots umbra? To find out more about the authors results, check out the article below.Sunspot in NOAA AR 11921. Left: umbralpenumbral boundary. Center: the isolated umbra from the sunspot. Right: The umbra with locations of umbral dots indicated by yellow plus signs. [Adapted from Yadav et al. 2018]CitationRahul Yadav et al 2018 ApJ 855 8. doi:10.3847/1538-4357/aaaeba

Latitudinal migration of sunspots based on the ESAI database

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Juan; Li, Fu-Yu; Feng, Wen

2018-01-01

The latitudinal migration of sunspots toward the equator, which implies there is propagation of the toroidal magnetic flux wave at the base of the solar convection zone, is one of the crucial observational bases for the solar dynamo to generate a magnetic field by shearing of the pre-existing poloidal magnetic field through differential rotation. The Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices (ESAI) elongated the Greenwich observation record of sunspots by several decades in the past. In this study, ESAI’s yearly mean latitude of sunspots in the northern and southern hemispheres during the years 1854 to 1985 is utilized to statistically test whether hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle is linear or nonlinear. It is found that a quadratic function is statistically significantly better at describing hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle than a linear function. In addition, the latitude migration velocity of sunspots in a solar cycle decreases as the cycle progresses, providing a particular constraint for solar dynamo models. Indeed, the butterfly wing pattern with a faster latitudinal migration rate should present stronger solar activity with a shorter cycle period, and it is located at higher latitudinal position, giving evidence to support the Babcock-Leighton dynamo mechanism.

Solar magnetic field studies using the 12 micron emission lines. I - Quiet sun time series and sunspot slices

Science.gov (United States)

Deming, Drake; Boyle, Robert J.; Jennings, Donald E.; Wiedemann, Gunter

1988-01-01

The use of the extremely Zeeman-sensitive IR emission line Mg I, at 12.32 microns, to study solar magnetic fields. Time series observations of the line in the quiet sun were obtained in order to determine the response time of the line to the five-minute oscillations. Based upon the velocity amplitude and average period measured in the line, it is concluded that it is formed in the temperature minimum region. The magnetic structure of sunspots is investigated by stepping a small field of view in linear 'slices' through the spots. The region of penumbral line formation does not show the Evershed outflow common in photospheric lines. The line intensity is a factor of two greater in sunspot penumbrae than in the photosphere, and at the limb the penumbral emission begins to depart from optical thinness, the line source function increasing with height. For a spot near disk center, the radial decrease in absolute magnetic field strength is steeper than the generally accepted dependence.

Values of Kp Indices, Ap Indices, Cp Indices, C9 Indices, Sunspot Number, and 10.7 cm Flux

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data file consists of Kp indices, Ap indices, Cp indices, C9 indices, sunspot number, and 10.7 cm flux. The most often requested parameter of this file are the...

An econometric investigation of the sunspot number record since the year 1700 and its prediction into the 22nd century

Science.gov (United States)

Travaglini, Guido

2015-09-01

Solar activity, as measured by the yearly revisited time series of sunspot numbers (SSN) for the period 1700-2014 (Clette et al., 2014), undergoes in this paper a triple statistical and econometric checkup. The conclusions are that the SSN sequence: (1) is best modeled as a signal that features nonlinearity in mean and variance, long memory, mean reversion, 'threshold' symmetry, and stationarity; (2) is best described as a discrete damped harmonic oscillator which linearly approximates the flux-transport dynamo model; (3) its prediction well into the 22nd century testifies of a substantial fall of the SSN centered around the year 2030. In addition, the first and last Gleissberg cycles show almost the same peak number and height during the period considered, yet the former slightly prevails when measured by means of the estimated smoother. All of these conclusions are achieved by making use of modern tools developed in the field of Financial Econometrics and of two new proposed procedures for signal smoothing and prediction.

COMPARISON OF CHAOTIC AND FRACTAL PROPERTIES OF POLAR FACULAE WITH SUNSPOT ACTIVITY

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Deng, L. H.; Xiang, Y. Y.; Dun, G. T. [Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650216 (China); Li, B., E-mail: wooden@escience.cn [Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Optical Astronomy and Solar-Terrestrial Environment, School of Space Science and Physics, Shandong University at Weihai, Weihai 264209 (China)

2016-01-15

The solar magnetic activity is governed by a complex dynamo mechanism and exhibits a nonlinear dissipation behavior in nature. The chaotic and fractal properties of solar time series are of great importance to understanding the solar dynamo actions, especially with regard to the nonlinear dynamo theories. In the present work, several nonlinear analysis approaches are proposed to investigate the nonlinear dynamical behavior of the polar faculae and sunspot activity for the time interval from 1951 August to 1998 December. The following prominent results are found: (1) both the high- and the low-latitude solar activity are governed by a three-dimensional chaotic attractor, and the chaotic behavior of polar faculae is the most complex, followed by that of the sunspot areas, and then the sunspot numbers; (2) both the high- and low-latitude solar activity exhibit a high degree of persistent behavior, and their fractal nature is due to such long-range correlation; (3) the solar magnetic activity cycle is predictable in nature, but the high-accuracy prediction should only be done for short- to mid-term due to its intrinsically dynamical complexity. With the help of the Babcock–Leighton dynamo model, we suggest that the nonlinear coupling of the polar magnetic fields with strong active-region fields exhibits a complex manner, causing the statistical similarities and differences between the polar faculae and the sunspot-related indicators.

Iwahashi Zenbei's Sunspot Drawings in 1793 in Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Hayakawa, Hisashi; Iwahashi, Kiyomi; Tamazawa, Harufumi; Toriumi, Shin; Shibata, Kazunari

2018-01-01

Three Japanese sunspot drawings associated with Iwahashi Zenbei (1756 - 1811) are shown here from contemporary manuscripts and woodprint documents with the relevant texts. We reveal the observational date of one of the drawings to be 26 August 1793, and the overall observations lasted for over a year. Moreover, we identify the observational site for the dated drawing as Fushimi in Japan. We then compare Zenbei's observations with the group sunspot number and the raw group count from the Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO) to reveal the context of the data, and we conclude that these drawings fill gaps in our understanding that are due to the fragmental sunspot observations around 1793. These drawings are important as a clue to evaluate astronomical knowledge of contemporary Japan in the late eighteenth century and are valuable as a non-European observation, considering that most sunspot observations up to the middle of the nineteenth century are from Europe.

STOCHASTIC DESCRIPTION OF THE HIGH-FREQUENCY CONTENT OF DAILY SUNSPOTS AND EVIDENCE FOR REGIME CHANGES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shapoval, A.; Le Mouël, J.-L.; Courtillot, V.; Shnirman, M.

2015-01-01

The irregularity index λ is applied to the high-frequency content of daily sunspot numbers ISSN. This λ is a modification of the standard maximal Lyapunov exponent. It is computed here as a function of embedding dimension m, within four-year time windows centered at the maxima of Schwabe cycles. The λ(m) curves form separate clusters (pre-1923 and post-1933). This supports a regime transition and narrows its occurrence to cycle 16, preceding the growth of activity leading to the Modern Maximum. The two regimes are reproduced by a simple autoregressive process AR(1), with the mean of Poisson noise undergoing 11 yr modulation. The autocorrelation a of the process (linked to sunspot lifetime) is a ≈ 0.8 for 1850-1923 and ≈0.95 for 1933-2013. The AR(1) model suggests that groups of spots appear with a Poisson rate and disappear at a constant rate. We further applied the irregularity index to the daily sunspot group number series for the northern and southern hemispheres, provided by the Greenwich Royal Observatory (RGO), in order to study a possible desynchronization. Correlations between the north and south λ(m) curves vary quite strongly with time and indeed show desynchronization. This may reflect a slow change in the dimension of an underlying dynamical system. The ISSN and RGO series of group numbers do not imply an identical mechanism, but both uncover a regime change at a similar time. Computation of the irregularity index near the maximum of cycle 24 will help in checking whether yet another regime change is under way

Predicting Maximum Sunspot Number in Solar Cycle 24 Nipa J Bhatt ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Key words. Sunspot number—precursor prediction technique—geo- magnetic activity index aa. 1. Introduction. Predictions of solar and geomagnetic activities are important for various purposes, including the operation of low-earth orbiting satellites, operation of power grids on. Earth, and satellite communication systems.

Long-term periodicities in the sunspot record

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilson, R.M.

1984-07-01

Sunspot records are systematically maintained, with the knowledge that an 11 year average period exists since about 1850. Thus, the sunspot record of highest quality and considered to be the most reliable is that of cycle eight through the present. On the basis of cycles 8 through 20, various combinations of sine curves were used to approximate the observed R sub MAX values (where R sub MAX is the smoothed sunspot number at cycle maximum). It is found that a three component sinusoidal function, having an 11 cycle and a 2 cycle variation on a 90 cycle periodicity, yields computed R sub MAX values which fit, reasonably well, observed R sub MAX values for the modern sunspot cycles. Extrapolation of the empirical functions forward in time allows for the projection of values of R sub MAX for cycles 21 and 22. For cycle 21, the function projects a value of 157.3, very close to the actually observed value of 164.5. For cycle 22, the function projects a value of about 107. Linear regressions applied to cycle 22 indicate a long-period cycle (cycle duration 132 months). An extensive bibliography on techniques used to estimate the time dependent behavior of sunspot cycles is provided

Nature's third cycle a story of sunspots

CERN Document Server

Choudhuri, Arnab Rai

2015-01-01

The cycle of day and night and the cycle of seasons are two familiar natural cycles around which many human activities are organized. But is there a third natural cycle of importance for us humans? On 13 March 1989, six million people in Canada went without electricity for many hours: a large explosion on the sun was discovered as the cause of this blackout. Such explosions occur above sunspots, dark features on the surface of the Sun that have been observed through telescopes since the time of Galileo. The number of sunspots has been found to wax and wane over a period of 11 years. Although this cycle was discovered less than two centuries ago, it is becoming increasingly important for us as human society becomes more dependent on technology. For nearly a century after its discovery, the cause of the sunspot cycle remained completely shrouded in mystery. The 1908 discovery of strong magnetic fields in sunspots made it clear that the 11-year cycle is the magnetic cycle of the sun. It is only during the last ...

Sunspots

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Priest, E.R.

1982-01-01

The existence of sunspots has been known since ancient times, but it was only at the beginning of this century that they were found to be the sites of very strong magnetic fields, and it was realised that they represent the places where huge magnetic flux tubes burst through the solar surface. A theoretical understanding of sunspots has had to await the development of magnetohydrodynamics; however, even now, there is some controversy about answers to fundamental questions, such as: why is a sunspot cool, what is its equilibrium structure and how is it formed. Other topics that are discussed in the present chapter include magnetoconvection and the process of magnetic buoyancy whereby a flux tube deep within the Sun tends to rise towards the surface because it is lighter than its surroundings. Outside active regions the magnetic flux is not spread out uniformly to a weak field of a few Gauss, but instead it is mainly concentrated at supergranulation boundaries into intense flux tubes, whose properties are discussed. (Auth.)

Coordination failure caused by sunspots

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beugnot, Julie; Gürgüç, Zeynep; Øvlisen, Frederik Roose

2012-01-01

on the efficient equilibrium, we consider sunspots as a potential reason for coordination failure. We conduct an experiment with a three player 2x2x2 game in which coordination on the efficient equilibrium is easy and should normally occur. In the control session, we find almost perfect coordination on the payoff......-dominant equilibrium, but in the sunspot treatment, dis-coordination is frequent. Sunspots lead to significant inefficiency, and we conclude that sunspots can indeed cause coordination failure....

The use of solar faculae in studies of the sunspot cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, G.M.; Evans, R.

1980-01-01

Comparison of the long-term variation of photospheric faculae areas with that of sunspots shows that studies of faculae provide both complementary and supplementary information on the behaviour of the solar cycle. Detailed studies of the development of sunspots with respect to faculae show that there is a high degree of order over much of a given cycle, but marked differences from cycle to cycle. Within a cycle the relationship between spot and faculae areas appears to be similar for the N and S solar hemispheres, and over the early stages of a cycle it is directly related to the magnitude of the maximum sunspot number subsequently attained in that cycle. This result may well have predictive applications, and formulae are given relating the peak sunspot number to simple parameters derived from this early developmental stage. Full application to the current cycle 21 is denied due to the cessation of the Greenwich daily photoheliographic measurements, but use of the cruder weekly data suggests a maximum smoothed sunspot number of 150 +- 22. The effects of the incompatibility of the spot and faculae data, in that faculae are unobservable over a large fraction of the solar disc and also do not always develop associated spots, have been examined in a detailed study of two cycles and shown not to vitiate the results. (orig.)

Application of Avco data analysis and prediction techniques (ADAPT) to prediction of sunspot activity

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, H. E.; Amato, R. A.

1972-01-01

The results are presented of the application of Avco Data Analysis and Prediction Techniques (ADAPT) to derivation of new algorithms for the prediction of future sunspot activity. The ADAPT derived algorithms show a factor of 2 to 3 reduction in the expected 2-sigma errors in the estimates of the 81-day running average of the Zurich sunspot numbers. The report presents: (1) the best estimates for sunspot cycles 20 and 21, (2) a comparison of the ADAPT performance with conventional techniques, and (3) specific approaches to further reduction in the errors of estimated sunspot activity and to recovery of earlier sunspot historical data. The ADAPT programs are used both to derive regression algorithm for prediction of the entire 11-year sunspot cycle from the preceding two cycles and to derive extrapolation algorithms for extrapolating a given sunspot cycle based on any available portion of the cycle.

Is sunspot activity a factor in influenza pandemics?

Science.gov (United States)

Qu, Jiangwen

2016-09-01

The 2009 AH1N1 pandemic became a global health concern, although fortunately, its worst anticipated effects were not realised. While the origins of such outbreaks remain poorly understood, it is very important to identify the precipitating factors in their emergence so that future pandemics can be detected as quickly as possible. Methords: Descriptive epidemiology was used to analyse the association between influenza pandemics and possible pandemics and relative number of sunspots. Non-conditional logistic regression was performed to analyse the statistical association between sunspot extremes and influenza pandemics to within plus or minus 1 year. Almost all recorded influenza/possible pandemics have occurred in time frames corresponding to sunspot extremes, or +/- 1 year within such extremes. These periods were identified as important risk factors in both possible and confirmed influenza pandemics (odds ratio: 3.87; 95% confidence interval: 1.08 to 13.85). Extremes of sunspot activity to within plus or minus 1 year may precipitate influenza pandemics. Mechanisms of epidemic initiation and early spread are discussed including primary causation by externally derived viral variants (from space via cometary dust). Efforts to construct a comprehensive early warning system for potential influenza and other viral pandemics that include analysis of sunspot activity and stratospheric sampling for viral variants should be supported. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Diode laser heterodyne observations of silicon monoxide in sunspots - A test of three sunspot models

Science.gov (United States)

Glenar, D. A.; Deming, D.; Jennings, D. E.; Kostiuk, T.; Mumma, M. J.

1983-01-01

Absorption features from the 8 micron SiO fundamental (upsilon = 1-0) and hot bands (upsilon = 2-1) have been observed in sunspots at sub-Doppler resolution using a ground-based tunable diode laser heterodyne spectrometer. The observed line widths suggest an upper limit of 0.5 km/s for the microturbulent velocity in sunspot umbrae. Since the silicon monoxide abundance is very sensitive to sunspot temperature, the measured equivalent widths permit an unambiguous determination of the temperature-pressure relation in the upper layers of the umbral atmosphere. In the region of SiO line formation (log P sub g = 3.0-4.5), the results support the sunspot model suggested by Stellmacher and Wiehr (1970).

Planetary tides during the Maunder sunspot minimum

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smythe, C.M.; Eddy, J.A.

1977-01-01

Sun-centered planetary conjunctions and tidal potentials are here constructed for the AD1645 to 1715 period of sunspot absence, referred to as the 'Maunder Minimum'. These are found to be effectively indistinguishable from patterns of conjunctions and power spectra of tidal potential in the present era of a well established 11 year sunspot cycle. This places a new and difficult restraint on any tidal theory of sunspot formation. Problems arise in any direct gravitational theory due to the apparently insufficient forces and tidal heights involved. Proponents of the tidal hypothesis usually revert to trigger mechanisms, which are difficult to criticise or test by observation. Any tidal theory rests on the evidence of continued sunspot periodicity and the substantiation of a prolonged period of solar anomaly in the historical past. The 'Maunder Minimum' was the most drastic change in the behaviour of solar activity in the last 300 years; sunspots virtually disappeared for a 70 year period and the 11 year cycle was probably absent. During that time, however, the nine planets were all in their orbits, and planetary conjunctions and tidal potentials were indistinguishable from those of the present era, in which the 11 year cycle is well established. This provides good evidence against the tidal theory. The pattern of planetary tidal forces during the Maunder Minimum was reconstructed to investigate the possibility that the multiple planet forces somehow fortuitously cancelled at the time, that is that the positions of the slower moving planets in the 17th and early 18th centuries were such that conjunctions and tidal potentials were at the time reduced in number and force. There was no striking dissimilarity between the time of the Maunder Minimum and any period investigated. The failure of planetary conjunction patterns to reflect the drastic drop in sunspots during the Maunder Minimum casts doubt on the tidal theory of solar activity, but a more quantitative test

SUNSPOT ROTATION AS A DRIVER OF MAJOR SOLAR ERUPTIONS IN THE NOAA ACTIVE REGION 12158

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vemareddy, P.; Ravindra, B. [Indian Institute of Astrophysics, Koramangala, Bangalore-560034 (India); Cheng, X., E-mail: vemareddy@iiap.res.in [School of Astronomy and Space Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing-210023 (China)

2016-09-20

We studied the development conditions of sigmoid structure under the influence of the magnetic non-potential characteristics of a rotating sunspot in the active region (AR) 12158. Vector magnetic field measurements from the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager and coronal EUV observations from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly reveal that the erupting inverse-S sigmoid had roots at the location of the rotating sunspot. The sunspot rotates at a rate of 0°–5° h{sup −1} with increasing trend in the first half followed by a decrease. The time evolution of many non-potential parameters had a good correspondence with the sunspot rotation. The evolution of the AR magnetic structure is approximated by a time series of force-free equilibria. The non-linear force-free field magnetic structure around the sunspot manifests the observed sigmoid structure. Field lines from the sunspot periphery constitute the body of the sigmoid and those from the interior overlie the sigmoid, similar to a flux rope structure. While the sunspot was rotating, two major coronal mass ejection eruptions occurred in the AR. During the first (second) event, the coronal current concentrations were enhanced (degraded), consistent with the photospheric net vertical current; however, magnetic energy was released during both cases. The analysis results suggest that the magnetic connections of the sigmoid are driven by the slow motion of sunspot rotation, which transforms to a highly twisted flux rope structure in a dynamical scenario. Exceeding the critical twist in the flux rope probably leads to the loss of equilibrium, thus triggering the onset of the two eruptions.

Long-term variations in the geomagnetic activity level Part II: Ascending phases of sunspot cycles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Mussino

1994-08-01

Full Text Available Monthly averages of the Helsinki Ak-values have been reduced to the equivalent aa-indices to extend the aa-data set back to 1844. A periodicity of about five cycles was found for the correlation coefficient (r between geomagnetic indices and sunspot numbers for the ascending phases of sunspot cycles 9 to 22, confirming previous findings based on a minor number of sunspot cycles. The result is useful to researchers in topics related to solar-terrestrial physics, particularly for the interpretation of long-term trends in geomagnetic activity during the past, and to forecast geomagnetic activity levels in the future.

Tracking the Magnetic Flux in and Around Sunspots

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sheeley, N. R. Jr.; Stauffer, J. R.; Thomassie, J. C.; Warren, H. P., E-mail: solsheeley@verizon.net, E-mail: harry.warren@nrl.navy.mil [Space Science Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375-5352 (United States)

2017-02-10

We have developed a procedure for tracking sunspots observed by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on the Solar Dynamics Observatory and for making curvature-corrected space/time maps of the associated line-of-sight magnetic field and continuum intensity. We apply this procedure to 36 sunspots, each observed continuously for nine days around its central meridian passage time, and find that the proper motions separate into two distinct components depending on their speeds. Fast (∼3–5 km s{sup −1}) motions, comparable to Evershed flows, are produced by weak vertical fluctuations of the horizontal canopy field and recur on a timescale of 12–20 min. Slow (∼0.3–0.5 km s{sup −1}) motions diverge from a sunspot-centered ring whose location depends on the size of the sunspot, occurring in the mid-penumbra for large sunspots and at the outer edge of the penumbra for small sunspots. The slow ingoing features are contracting spokes of a quasi-vertical field of umbral polarity. These inflows disappear when the sunspot loses its penumbra, and may be related to inward-moving penumbral grain. The slow outgoing features may have either polarity depending on whether they originate from quasi-vertical fields of umbral polarity or from the outer edge of the canopy. When a sunspot decays, the penumbra and canopy disappear, and the moat becomes filled with slow outflows of umbral polarity. We apply our procedure to decaying sunspots, to long-lived sunspots, and to numerical simulations of a long-lived sunspot by Rempel.

Statistics of the largest sunspot and facular areas per solar cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Willis, D.M.; Kabasakal Tulunay, Y.

1979-01-01

The statistics of extreme values is used to investigate the statistical properties of the largest areas sunspots and photospheric faculae per solar cycle. The largest values of the synodic-solar-rotation mean areas of umbrae, whole spots and faculae, which have been recorded for nine solar cycles, are each shown to comply with the general form of the extreme value probability function. Empirical expressions are derived for the three extreme value populations from which the characteristic statistical parameters, namely the mode, median, mean and standard deviation, can be calculated for each population. These three extreme value populations are also used to find the expected ranges of the extreme areas in a group of solar cycles as a function of the number of cycles in the group. The extreme areas of umbrae and whole spots have a dispersion comparable to that found by Siscoe for the extreme values of sunspot number, whereas the extreme areas of faculae have a smaller dispersion which is comparable to that found by Siscoe for the largest geomagnetic storm per solar cycle. The expected range of the largest sunspot area per solar cycle for a group of one hundred cycles appears to be inconsistent with the existence of the prolonged periods of sunspot minima that have been inferred from the historical information on solar variability. This inconsistency supports the contention that there are temporal changes of solar-cycle statistics during protracted periods of sunspot minima (or maxima). Indeed, without such temporal changes, photospheric faculae should have been continually observable throughout the lifetime of the Sun. (orig.)

Probing sunspots with two-skip time-distance helioseismology

Science.gov (United States)

Duvall, Thomas L., Jr.; Cally, Paul S.; Przybylski, Damien; Nagashima, Kaori; Gizon, Laurent

2018-06-01

Context. Previous helioseismology of sunspots has been sensitive to both the structural and magnetic aspects of sunspot structure. Aims: We aim to develop a technique that is insensitive to the magnetic component so the two aspects can be more readily separated. Methods: We study waves reflected almost vertically from the underside of a sunspot. Time-distance helioseismology was used to measure travel times for the waves. Ray theory and a detailed sunspot model were used to calculate travel times for comparison. Results: It is shown that these large distance waves are insensitive to the magnetic field in the sunspot. The largest travel time differences for any solar phenomena are observed. Conclusions: With sufficient modeling effort, these should lead to better understanding of sunspot structure.

HELIOSEISMOLOGY OF A REALISTIC MAGNETOCONVECTIVE SUNSPOT SIMULATION

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Braun, D. C.; Birch, A. C.; Rempel, M.; Duvall, T. L. Jr.

2012-01-01

We compare helioseismic travel-time shifts measured from a realistic magnetoconvective sunspot simulation using both helioseismic holography and time-distance helioseismology, and measured from real sunspots observed with the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the Michelson Doppler Imager instrument on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. We find remarkable similarities in the travel-time shifts measured between the methodologies applied and between the simulated and real sunspots. Forward modeling of the travel-time shifts using either Born or ray approximation kernels and the sound-speed perturbations present in the simulation indicates major disagreements with the measured travel-time shifts. These findings do not substantially change with the application of a correction for the reduction of wave amplitudes in the simulated and real sunspots. Overall, our findings demonstrate the need for new methods for inferring the subsurface structure of sunspots through helioseismic inversions.

Sunspot Positions and Areas from Observations by Galileo Galilei

Science.gov (United States)

Vokhmyanin, M. V.; Zolotova, N. V.

2018-02-01

Sunspot records in the seventeenth century provide important information on the solar activity before the Maunder minimum, yielding reliable sunspot indices and the solar butterfly diagram. Galilei's letters to Cardinal Francesco Barberini and Marcus Welser contain daily solar observations on 3 - 11 May, 2 June - 8 July, and 19 - 21 August 1612. These historical archives do not provide the time of observation, which results in uncertainty in the sunspot coordinates. To obtain them, we present a method that minimizes the discrepancy between the sunspot latitudes. We provide areas and heliographic coordinates of 82 sunspot groups. In contrast to Sheiner's butterfly diagram, we found only one sunspot group near the Equator. This provides a higher reliability of Galilei's drawings. Large sunspot groups are found to emerge at the same longitude in the northern hemisphere from 3 May to 21 August, which indicates an active longitude.

DYNAMICS IN SUNSPOT UMBRA AS SEEN IN NEW SOLAR TELESCOPE AND INTERFACE REGION IMAGING SPECTROGRAPH DATA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yurchyshyn, V.; Abramenko, V. [Big Bear Solar Observatory, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Big Bear City, CA 92314 (United States); Kilcik, A. [Department of Space Science and Technologies, Akdeniz University, 07058 Antalya (Turkey)

2015-01-10

We analyze sunspot oscillations using Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) slit-jaw and spectral data and narrow-band chromospheric images from the New Solar Telescope (NST) for the main sunspot in NOAA AR 11836. We report that the difference between the shock arrival times as measured by the Mg II k 2796.35 Å and Si IV 1393.76 Å line formation levels changes during the observed period, and peak-to-peak delays may range from 40 s to zero. The intensity of chromospheric shocks also displays long-term (about 20 min) variations. NST's high spatial resolution Hα data allowed us to conclude that, in this sunspot, umbral flashes (UFs) appeared in the form of narrow bright lanes stretched along the light bridges and around clusters of umbral bright points. The time series also suggested that UFs preferred to appear on the sunspot-center side of light bridges, which may indicate the existence of a compact sub-photospheric driver of sunspot oscillations. The sunspot's umbra as seen in the IRIS chromospheric and transition region data appears bright above the locations of light bridges and the areas where the dark umbra is dotted with clusters of umbral dots. Co-spatial and co-temporal data from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory showed that the same locations were associated with bright footpoints of coronal loops suggesting that the light bridges may play an important role in heating the coronal sunspot loops. Finally, the power spectra analysis showed that the intensity of chromospheric and transition region oscillations significantly vary across the umbra and with height, suggesting that umbral non-uniformities and the structure of sunspot magnetic fields may play a role in wave propagation and heating of umbral loops.

Oscillations and Waves in Sunspots

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena Khomenko

2015-11-01

Full Text Available A magnetic field modifies the properties of waves in a complex way. Significant advances have been made recently in our understanding of the physics of sunspot waves with the help of high-resolution observations, analytical theories, as well as numerical simulations. We review the current ideas in the field, providing the most coherent picture of sunspot oscillations as by present understanding.

The sunspot databases of the Debrecen Observatory

Science.gov (United States)

Baranyi, Tünde; Gyori, Lajos; Ludmány, András

2015-08-01

We present the sunspot data bases and online tools available in the Debrecen Heliophysical Observatory: the DPD (Debrecen Photoheliographic Data, 1974 -), the SDD (SOHO/MDI-Debrecen Data, 1996-2010), the HMIDD (SDO/HMI-Debrecen Data, HMIDD, 2010-), the revised version of Greenwich Photoheliographic Data (GPR, 1874-1976) presented together with the Hungarian Historical Solar Drawings (HHSD, 1872-1919). These are the most detailed and reliable documentations of the sunspot activity in the relevant time intervals. They are very useful for studying sunspot group evolution on various time scales from hours to weeks. Time-dependent differences between the available long-term sunspot databases are investigated and cross-calibration factors are determined between them. This work has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2012-2015) under grant agreement No. 284461 (eHEROES).

Hyperreal Numbers for Infinite Divergent Series

OpenAIRE

Bartlett, Jonathan

2018-01-01

Treating divergent series properly has been an ongoing issue in mathematics. However, many of the problems in divergent series stem from the fact that divergent series were discovered prior to having a number system which could handle them. The infinities that resulted from divergent series led to contradictions within the real number system, but these contradictions are largely alleviated with the hyperreal number system. Hyperreal numbers provide a framework for dealing with divergent serie...

The Strongest Magnetic Field in Sunspots

Science.gov (United States)

Okamoto, J.; Sakurai, T.

2017-12-01

Sunspots are concentrations of magnetic fields on the solar surface. Generally, the strongest magnetic field in each sunspot is located in the dark umbra in most cases. A typical field strength in sunspots is around 3,000 G. On the other hand, some exceptions also have been found in complex sunspots with bright regions such as light bridges that separate opposite polarity umbrae, for instance with a strength of 4,300 G. However, the formation mechanism of such strong fields outside umbrae is still puzzling. Here we report an extremely strong magnetic field in a sunspot, which was located in a bright region sandwiched by two opposite-polarity umbrae. The strength is 6,250 G, which is the largest ever observed since the discovery of magnetic field on the Sun in 1908 by Hale. We obtained 31 scanned maps of the active region observed by Hinode/SOT/SP with a cadence of 3 hours over 5 days (February 1-6, 2014). Considering the spatial and temporal evolution of the vector magnetic field and the Doppler velocity in the bright region, we suggested that this strong field region was generated as a result of compression of one umbra pushed by the outward flow from the other umbra (Evershed flow), like the subduction of the Earth's crust in plate tectonics.

Solar rotation and meridional motions derived from sunspot groups

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tuominen, J.; Tuominen, I.; Kyroelaeinen, J.

1982-01-01

Latitudinal and longitudinal motions of sunspot groups have been studied using the positions of recurrent sunspot groups of 103 years published by Greenwich observatory. In order to avoid any limb effects, only positions close to the central meridian have been used. The data were divided into two parts: those belonging to the years around sunspot maxima and those belonging to the years around sunspot minima. Using several different criteria it was ascertained that sunspot groups show meridional motions and that their drift curves as a function of latitude are different around maxima and around minima. In addition, also the angular velocity, as a function of latitude, was found to be different around maxima and minima. (Auth.)

Questioning the Influence of Sunspots on Amazon Hydrology: Even a Broken Clock Tells the Right Time Twice a Day

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, J. C. A.; Gloor, M.; Boom, A.; Neill, D. A.; Cintra, B. B. L.; Clerici, S. J.; Brienen, R. J. W.

2018-02-01

It was suggested in a recent article that sunspots drive decadal variation in Amazon River flow. This conclusion was based on a novel time series decomposition method used to extract a decadal signal from the Amazon River record. We have extended this analysis back in time, using a new hydrological proxy record of tree ring oxygen isotopes (δ18OTR). Consistent with the findings of Antico and Torres, we find a positive correlation between sunspots and the decadal δ18OTR cycle from 1903 to 2012 (r = 0.60, p r = -0.30, p = 0.11, 1799-1902). This result casts considerable doubt over the mechanism by which sunspots are purported to influence Amazon hydrology.

Sunspot Modeling: From Simplified Models to Radiative MHD Simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rolf Schlichenmaier

2011-09-01

Full Text Available We review our current understanding of sunspots from the scales of their fine structure to their large scale (global structure including the processes of their formation and decay. Recently, sunspot models have undergone a dramatic change. In the past, several aspects of sunspot structure have been addressed by static MHD models with parametrized energy transport. Models of sunspot fine structure have been relying heavily on strong assumptions about flow and field geometry (e.g., flux-tubes, "gaps", convective rolls, which were motivated in part by the observed filamentary structure of penumbrae or the necessity of explaining the substantial energy transport required to maintain the penumbral brightness. However, none of these models could self-consistently explain all aspects of penumbral structure (energy transport, filamentation, Evershed flow. In recent years, 3D radiative MHD simulations have been advanced dramatically to the point at which models of complete sunspots with sufficient resolution to capture sunspot fine structure are feasible. Here overturning convection is the central element responsible for energy transport, filamentation leading to fine-structure and the driving of strong outflows. On the larger scale these models are also in the progress of addressing the subsurface structure of sunspots as well as sunspot formation. With this shift in modeling capabilities and the recent advances in high resolution observations, the future research will be guided by comparing observation and theory.

INTERFERENCE FRINGES OF SOLAR ACOUSTIC WAVES AROUND SUNSPOTS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chou, Dean-Yi; Zhao Hui; Yang, Ming-Hsu; Liang, Zhi-Chao, E-mail: chou@phys.nthu.edu.tw [Physics Department, National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan (China)

2012-10-20

Solar acoustic waves are scattered by a sunspot due to the interaction between the acoustic waves and the sunspot. The sunspot, excited by the incident wave, generates the scattered wave. The scattered wave is added to the incident wave to form the total wave around the sunspot. The interference fringes between the scattered wave and the incident wave are visible in the intensity of the total wave because the coherent time of the incident wave is of the order of a wave period. The strength of the interference fringes anti-correlates with the width of temporal spectra of the incident wave. The separation between neighboring fringes increases with the incident wavelength and the sunspot size. The strength of the fringes increases with the radial order n of the incident wave from n = 0 to n = 2, and then decreases from n = 2 to n = 5. The interference fringes play a role analogous to holograms in optics. This study suggests the feasibility of using the interference fringes to reconstruct the scattered wavefields of the sunspot, although the quality of the reconstructed wavefields is sensitive to the noise and errors in the interference fringes.

Wings of the butterfly: Sunspot groups for 1826-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Leussu, R.; Usoskin, I. G.; Senthamizh Pavai, V.; Diercke, A.; Arlt, R.; Denker, C.; Mursula, K.

2017-03-01

The spatio-temporal evolution of sunspot activity, the so-called Maunder butterfly diagram, has been continously available since 1874 using data from the Royal Greenwich Observatory, extended by SOON network data after 1976. Here we present a new extended butterfly diagram of sunspot group occurrence since 1826, using the recently digitized data from Schwabe (1826-1867) and Spörer (1866-1880). The wings of the diagram are separated using a recently developed method based on an analysis of long gaps in sunspot group occurrence in different latitude bands. We define characteristic latitudes, corresponding to the start, end, and the largest extent of the wings (the F, L, and H latitudes). The H latitudes (30°-45°) are highly significantly correlated with the strength of the wings (quantified by the total sum of the monthly numbers of sunspot groups). The F latitudes (20°-30°) depict a weak tendency, especially in the southern hemisphere, to follow the wing strength. The L latitudes (2°-10°) show no clear relation to the wing strength. Overall, stronger cycle wings tend to start at higher latitudes and have a greater wing extent. A strong (5-6)-cycle periodic oscillation is found in the start and end times of the wings and in the overlap and gaps between successive wings of one hemisphere. While the average wing overlap is zero in the southern hemisphere, it is two to three months in the north. A marginally significant oscillation of about ten solar cycles is found in the asymmetry of the L latitudes. The new long database of butterfly wings provides new observational constraints to solar dynamo models that discuss the spatio-temporal distribution of sunspot occurrence over the solar cycle and longer. Digital data for Fig. 1 are available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/599/A131

HELIOSEISMIC HOLOGRAPHY OF SIMULATED SUNSPOTS: MAGNETIC AND THERMAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO TRAVEL TIMES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Felipe, T. [Departamento de Astrofísica, Universidad de La Laguna, E-38205 La Laguna, Tenerife (Spain); Braun, D. C.; Crouch, A. D. [NorthWest Research Associates, Colorado Research Associates, Boulder, CO 80301 (United States); Birch, A. C., E-mail: tobias@iac.es [Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung, Justus-von-Liebig-Weg 3, D-37077 Göttingen (Germany)

2016-10-01

Wave propagation through sunspots involves conversion between waves of acoustic and magnetic character. In addition, the thermal structure of sunspots is very different than that of the quiet Sun. As a consequence, the interpretation of local helioseismic measurements of sunspots has long been a challenge. With the aim of understanding these measurements, we carry out numerical simulations of wave propagation through sunspots. Helioseismic holography measurements made from the resulting simulated wavefields show qualitative agreement with observations of real sunspots. We use additional numerical experiments to determine, separately, the influence of the thermal structure of the sunspot and the direct effect of the sunspot magnetic field. We use the ray approximation to show that the travel-time shifts in the thermal (non-magnetic) sunspot model are primarily produced by changes in the wave path due to the Wilson depression rather than variations in the wave speed. This shows that inversions for the subsurface structure of sunspots must account for local changes in the density. In some ranges of horizontal phase speed and frequency there is agreement (within the noise level in the simulations) between the travel times measured in the full magnetic sunspot model and the thermal model. If this conclusion proves to be robust for a wide range of models, it would suggest a path toward inversions for sunspot structure.

HELIOSEISMIC HOLOGRAPHY OF SIMULATED SUNSPOTS: MAGNETIC AND THERMAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO TRAVEL TIMES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Felipe, T.; Braun, D. C.; Crouch, A. D.; Birch, A. C.

2016-01-01

Wave propagation through sunspots involves conversion between waves of acoustic and magnetic character. In addition, the thermal structure of sunspots is very different than that of the quiet Sun. As a consequence, the interpretation of local helioseismic measurements of sunspots has long been a challenge. With the aim of understanding these measurements, we carry out numerical simulations of wave propagation through sunspots. Helioseismic holography measurements made from the resulting simulated wavefields show qualitative agreement with observations of real sunspots. We use additional numerical experiments to determine, separately, the influence of the thermal structure of the sunspot and the direct effect of the sunspot magnetic field. We use the ray approximation to show that the travel-time shifts in the thermal (non-magnetic) sunspot model are primarily produced by changes in the wave path due to the Wilson depression rather than variations in the wave speed. This shows that inversions for the subsurface structure of sunspots must account for local changes in the density. In some ranges of horizontal phase speed and frequency there is agreement (within the noise level in the simulations) between the travel times measured in the full magnetic sunspot model and the thermal model. If this conclusion proves to be robust for a wide range of models, it would suggest a path toward inversions for sunspot structure.

A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22: Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

Science.gov (United States)

Schatten, K. H.; Hedin, A. E.

1986-01-01

Using the dynamo theory method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22 - Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

Science.gov (United States)

Schatten, K. H.; Hedin, A. E.

1984-01-01

Using the 'dynamo theory' method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

Essential features of long-term changes of areas and diameters of sunspot groups in solar activity cycles 12-24

Science.gov (United States)

Efimenko, V. M.; Lozitsky, V. G.

2018-06-01

We analyze the Greenwich catalog data on areas of sunspot groups of last thirteen solar cycles. Various parameters of sunspots are considered, namely: average monthly smoothed areas, maximum area for each year and equivalent diameters of groups of sunspots. The first parameter shows an exceptional power of the 19th cycle of solar activity, which appears here more contrastively than in the numbers of spots (that is, in Wolf's numbers). It was found that in the maximum areas of sunspot groups for a year there is a unique phenomenon: a short and high jump in the 18th cycle (in 1946-1947) that has no analogues in other cycles. We also studied the integral distributions for equivalent diameters and found the following: (a) the average value of the index of power-law approximation is 5.4 for the last 13 cycles and (b) there is reliable evidence of Hale's double cycle (about 44 years). Since this indicator reflects the dispersion of sunspot group diameters, the results obtained show that the convective zone of the Sun generates embryos of active regions in different statistical regimes which change with a cycle of about 44 years.

Absorption of acoustic waves by sunspots. II - Resonance absorption in axisymmetric fibril models

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenthal, C. S.

1992-01-01

Analytical calculations of acoustic waves scattered by sunspots which concentrate on the absorption at the magnetohydrodynamic Alfven resonance are extended to the case of a flux-tube embedded in a uniform atmosphere. The model is based on a flux-tubes of varying radius that are highly structured, translationally invariant, and axisymmetric. The absorbed fractional energy is determined for different flux-densities and subphotospheric locations with attention given to the effects of twist. When the flux is highly concentrated into annuli efficient absorption is possible even when the mean magnetic flux density is low. The model demonstrates low absorption at low azimuthal orders even in the presence of twist which generally increases the range of wave numbers over which efficient absorption can occur. Resonance absorption is concluded to be an efficient mechanism in monolithic sunspots, fibril sunspots, and plage fields.

RE-EXAMINING SUNSPOT TILT ANGLE TO INCLUDE ANTI-HALE STATISTICS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McClintock, B. H. [University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, 4350 (Australia); Norton, A. A. [HEPL, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA 94305 (United States); Li, J., E-mail: u1049686@umail.usq.edu.au, E-mail: aanorton@stanford.edu, E-mail: jli@igpp.ucla.edu [Department of Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States)

2014-12-20

Sunspot groups and bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) serve as an observational diagnostic of the solar cycle. We use Debrecen Photohelographic Data (DPD) from 1974-2014 that determined sunspot tilt angles from daily white light observations, and data provided by Li and Ulrich that determined sunspot magnetic tilt angle using Mount Wilson magnetograms from 1974-2012. The magnetograms allowed for BMR tilt angles that were anti-Hale in configuration, so tilt values ranged from 0 to 360° rather than the more common ±90°. We explore the visual representation of magnetic tilt angles on a traditional butterfly diagram by plotting the mean area-weighted latitude of umbral activity in each bipolar sunspot group, including tilt information. The large scatter of tilt angles over the course of a single cycle and hemisphere prevents Joy's law from being visually identified in the tilt-butterfly diagram without further binning. The average latitude of anti-Hale regions does not differ from the average latitude of all regions in both hemispheres. The distribution of anti-Hale sunspot tilt angles are broadly distributed between 0 and 360° with a weak preference for east-west alignment 180° from their expected Joy's law angle. The anti-Hale sunspots display a log-normal size distribution similar to that of all sunspots, indicating no preferred size for anti-Hale sunspots. We report that 8.4% ± 0.8% of all bipolar sunspot regions are misclassified as Hale in traditional catalogs. This percentage is slightly higher for groups within 5° of the equator due to the misalignment of the magnetic and heliographic equators.

RE-EXAMINING SUNSPOT TILT ANGLE TO INCLUDE ANTI-HALE STATISTICS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McClintock, B. H.; Norton, A. A.; Li, J.

2014-01-01

Sunspot groups and bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) serve as an observational diagnostic of the solar cycle. We use Debrecen Photohelographic Data (DPD) from 1974-2014 that determined sunspot tilt angles from daily white light observations, and data provided by Li and Ulrich that determined sunspot magnetic tilt angle using Mount Wilson magnetograms from 1974-2012. The magnetograms allowed for BMR tilt angles that were anti-Hale in configuration, so tilt values ranged from 0 to 360° rather than the more common ±90°. We explore the visual representation of magnetic tilt angles on a traditional butterfly diagram by plotting the mean area-weighted latitude of umbral activity in each bipolar sunspot group, including tilt information. The large scatter of tilt angles over the course of a single cycle and hemisphere prevents Joy's law from being visually identified in the tilt-butterfly diagram without further binning. The average latitude of anti-Hale regions does not differ from the average latitude of all regions in both hemispheres. The distribution of anti-Hale sunspot tilt angles are broadly distributed between 0 and 360° with a weak preference for east-west alignment 180° from their expected Joy's law angle. The anti-Hale sunspots display a log-normal size distribution similar to that of all sunspots, indicating no preferred size for anti-Hale sunspots. We report that 8.4% ± 0.8% of all bipolar sunspot regions are misclassified as Hale in traditional catalogs. This percentage is slightly higher for groups within 5° of the equator due to the misalignment of the magnetic and heliographic equators

Sunspots Resource--From Ancient Cultures to Modern Research

Science.gov (United States)

Craig, N.

2000-10-01

Sunspots is a web-based lesson that was developed by the Science Education Gateway (SEGway) program with participants from the Exploratorium, a well known science Museum in San Francisco, UC Berkeley Space Sciences Laboratory, and teachers from several California schools. This space science resource allows 8-12 grade students to explore the nature of sunspots and the history of solar physics in its effort to understand their nature. Interviews with solar physicists and archeo-astronomers, historic images, cutting-edge NASA images, movies, and research results, as well as a student-centered sunspot research activity using NASA space science data defines this lesson. The sunspot resource is aligned with the NCTM and National Science Education Standards. It emphasizes inquiry-based methods and mathematical exercises through measurement, graphic data representation, analysis of NASA data, lastly, interpreting results and drawing conclusions. These resources have been successfully classroom tested in 4 middle schools in the San Francisco Unified School District as part of the 3-week Summer School Science curricula. Lessons learned from the Summer School 1999 will be explained. This resource includes teacher-friendly lesson plans, space science background material and student worksheets. There will be Sunspots lesson CD-ROM and printed version of the relevant classroom-ready materials and a teacher resource booklet available. Sunspot resource is brought to you by, The Science Education Gateway - SEGway - Project, and the HESSI satellite and NASA's Office of Space Science Sun-Earth Connection Education Forum.

Improvement of the photometric sunspot index and changes of the disk-integrated sunspot contrast with time

Science.gov (United States)

Froehlich, Claus; Pap, Judit M.; Hudson, Hugh S.

1994-06-01

The photometric sunspot index (PSI) was developed to study the effects of sunspots on solar irradiance. It is calculated from the sunspot data published in the Solar-Geophysical Data catalog. It has been shown that the former PSI models overestimate the effect of dark sunspots on solar irradiance; furthermore results of direct sunspot photometry indicate that the contrast of spots depends on their area. An improved PSI calculation is presented; it takes into account the area dependence of the contrast and calculates `true' daily means for each observation using the differential rotation of the spots. Moreover, the observations are screened for outliers which improves the homogeneity of the data set substantially, at least for the period after December 1981 when NOAA started to report data from a few instead of one to two stations. A detailed description of the method is provided. The correlation between the newly calculated PSI and total solar irradiance is studied for different phases of the solar cycles 21 and 22 using bi-variate spectral analysis. The results can be used as a `calibration' of PSI in terms of gain, the factor by which PSI has to be multiplied to yield the observed irradiance change. The factor changes with time from about 0.6 in 1980 to 1.1 in 1990. This unexpected result cannot be interpreted by a change of the contrast relative to the quiet Sun (as it is normally defined and determined by direct photometry) but rather as a change of the contrast between the spots and their surrounding as seen in total irradiance (integrated over the solar disk). This may partly be explained by a change in the ratio between the areas of the spots and the surrounding faculae.

Relationship between geomagnetic classes’ activity phases and their occurrence during the sunspot cycle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frédéric Ouattara

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Four well known geomagnetic classes of activity such as quiet days activity, fluctuating activity, recurrent activity
and shock activity time occurrences have been determined not only by using time profile of sunspot number
Rz but also by using aa index values.
We show that recurrent wind stream activity and fluctuating activity occur in opposite phase and slow solar wind
activity during minimum phase and shock activity at the maximum phase.
It emerges from this study that fluctuating activity precedes the sunspot cycle by π/2 and the latter also precedes
recurrent activity by π/2. Thus in the majority the activities do not happen at random; the sunspot cycle starts
with quiet days activity, continues with fluctuating activity and during its maximum phase arrives shock activity.
The descending phase is characterized by the manifestation of recurrent wind stream activity.

The chromosphere above a δ-sunspot in the presence of fan-shaped jets

Science.gov (United States)

Robustini, Carolina; Leenaarts, Jorrit; de la Cruz Rodríguez, Jaime

2018-01-01

Context. Delta-sunspots are known to be favourable locations for fast and energetic events like flares and coronal mass ejections. The photosphere of this sunspot type has been thoroughly investigated in the past three decades. The atmospheric conditions in the chromosphere are not as well known, however. Aims: This study is focused on the chromosphere of a δ-sunspot that harbours a series of fan-shaped jets in its penumbra. The aim of this study is to establish the magnetic field topology and the temperature distribution in the presence of jets in the photosphere and the chromosphere. Methods: We use data from the Swedish 1m Solar Telescope (SST) and the Solar Dynamics Observatory. We invert the spectropolarimetric Fe I 6302 Å and Ca II 8542 Å data from the SST using the non-LTE inversion code NICOLE to estimate the magnetic field configuration, temperature, and velocity structure in the chromosphere. Results: A loop-like magnetic structure is observed to emerge in the penumbra of the sunspot. The jets are launched from this structure. Magnetic reconnection between this emerging field and the pre-existing vertical field is suggested by hot plasma patches on the interface between the two fields. The height at which the reconnection takes place is located between log τ500 = -2 and log τ500 = -3. The magnetic field vector and the atmospheric temperature maps show a stationary configuration during the whole observation. Movies associated to Figs. 3-5 are available at http://www.aanda.org

On the evolution of magnetic and velocity fields of an originating sunspot group

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bachmann, G.

1978-01-01

Magnetographic measurements were made to derive longitudinal magnetic field strengths, line-of-sight velocities and the brightness distribution in an originating sunspot group. These results and photographs of the group are used to compare the evaluation of a relatively simple active region with our present ideas about the evolution of active regions in general. We found that the total magnetic flux increased from about 4 to 20x10 20 Mx over three days. The downward flow of gas in regions with stronger magnetic fields is formed only after the magnetic field has already been bipolar for two days. The maximum velocity always occurred in the main spots of the preceding and the subsequent parts of the sunspot group. Transformation into a flow pattern, which looks like Evershed motion, is observed in the main preceding sunspot after the formation of the penumbra. The generation of new active regions by concentration and amplification of magnetic fields, under the action of supergranulation flow in photospheric layers, cannot play an important role. On the contrary, the behaviour of the active region is in agreement with the conception of rising flux tubes, out of which the gas flows down. Our observations confirm that a magnetic field strength, leading to the generation of sunspots, is attained earlier in the preceding part of the originating active region than in its subsequent part. A series of subflares occurred in the active region, when short-lived small magnetic structure elements emerged in the larger bipolar magnetic field. (author)

The reconciliation of an F-region irregularity model with sunspot-cycle variations in spread-F occurrence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singleton, D.G.

1974-11-01

A recently proposed means of combining models of ionospheric F-layer peak electron density and irregularity incremental electron density (ΔN) so as to simulate the global occurrence probability of the frequency spreading component of spread-F is discussed. This procedure is then used to model experimental spread-F occurrence results. It is found possible to readily simulate the sunspot-maximum results, independently of season, with only small adjustments to the amplitudes of the empirical expressions used to ΔN in the several latitude regimes. However, at sunspot minimum and for each season, the ΔN model requires modification in the equatorial and mid-latitude regions of high irregularity incidence, before successful simulations of the spread-F data can be obtained. These modifications, which include a broadening of the equatorial region and a polewards shift to the mid-latitude region with decreasing sunspot number, are discussed in detail. It is concluded that the scintillation data base, from which the original ΔN model derives, is not sufficiently representative with regard to sunspot number and magnetic index. The use of the spread-F adaptation of the ΔN model, as well as its original scintillation version, to rectify these failings of the ΔN model are also discussed. (author)

A Standard Law for the Equatorward Drift of the Sunspot Zones

Science.gov (United States)

Hathaway, David H.

2012-01-01

The latitudinal location of the sunspot zones in each hemisphere is determined by calculating the centroid position of sunspot areas for each solar rotation from May 1874 to June 2012. When these centroid positions are plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle maximum there appears to be systematic differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates as a function of sunspot cycle amplitude. If, instead, these centroid positions are plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle minimum then most of the differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates disappear. The differences that remain disappear entirely if curve fitting is used to determine the starting times (which vary by as much as 8 months from the times of minima). The sunspot zone latitudes and equatorward drift measured relative to this starting time follow a standard path for all cycles with no dependence upon cycle strength or hemispheric dominance. Although Cycle 23 was peculiar in its length and the strength of the polar fields it produced, it too shows no significant variation from this standard. This standard law, and the lack of variation with sunspot cycle characteristics, is consistent with Dynamo Wave mechanisms but not consistent with current Flux Transport Dynamo models for the equatorward drift of the sunspot zones.

Photometric measurements of solar irradiance variations due to sunspots

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chapman, G.A.; Herzog, A.D.; Laico, D.E.; Lawrence, J.K.; Templer, M.S.

1989-01-01

A photometric telescope constructed to obtain photometric sunspot areas and deficits on a daily basis is described. Data from this Cartesian full disk telescope (CFDT) are analyzed with attention given to the period between June 4 and June 17, 1985 because of the availability of overlapping sunspot area and irradiance deficit data from high-resolution digital spectroheliograms made with the San Fernando Observatory 28 cm vacuum solar telescope and spectroheliograph. The CFDT sunspot deficits suggest a substantial irradiance contribution from faculae and active region plage. 23 refs

The Flares Associated with the Dynamics of the Sunspots K. M. ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

tional theory of magnetic reconnection is briefly discussed. ... between changes in the sunspots' dynamics, emerging flux region, twisting of the field ... the eventual triggering of the flares is due to proper motion of the sunspots. Using .... rotation rates obtained from the daily motion of sunspot groups with respect to their life.

Multivariate Time Series Decomposition into Oscillation Components.

Science.gov (United States)

Matsuda, Takeru; Komaki, Fumiyasu

2017-08-01

Many time series are considered to be a superposition of several oscillation components. We have proposed a method for decomposing univariate time series into oscillation components and estimating their phases (Matsuda & Komaki, 2017 ). In this study, we extend that method to multivariate time series. We assume that several oscillators underlie the given multivariate time series and that each variable corresponds to a superposition of the projections of the oscillators. Thus, the oscillators superpose on each variable with amplitude and phase modulation. Based on this idea, we develop gaussian linear state-space models and use them to decompose the given multivariate time series. The model parameters are estimated from data using the empirical Bayes method, and the number of oscillators is determined using the Akaike information criterion. Therefore, the proposed method extracts underlying oscillators in a data-driven manner and enables investigation of phase dynamics in a given multivariate time series. Numerical results show the effectiveness of the proposed method. From monthly mean north-south sunspot number data, the proposed method reveals an interesting phase relationship.

Sunspot splitting triggering an eruptive flare

Science.gov (United States)

Louis, Rohan E.; Puschmann, Klaus G.; Kliem, Bernhard; Balthasar, Horst; Denker, Carsten

2014-02-01

Aims: We investigate how the splitting of the leading sunspot and associated flux emergence and cancellation in active region NOAA 11515 caused an eruptive M5.6 flare on 2012 July 2. Methods: Continuum intensity, line-of-sight magnetogram, and dopplergram data of the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager were employed to analyse the photospheric evolution. Filtergrams in Hα and He I 10830 Å of the Chromospheric Telescope at the Observatorio del Teide, Tenerife, track the evolution of the flare. The corresponding coronal conditions were derived from 171 Å and 304 Å images of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly. Local correlation tracking was utilized to determine shear flows. Results: Emerging flux formed a neutral line ahead of the leading sunspot and new satellite spots. The sunspot splitting caused a long-lasting flow towards this neutral line, where a filament formed. Further flux emergence, partly of mixed polarity, as well as episodes of flux cancellation occurred repeatedly at the neutral line. Following a nearby C-class precursor flare with signs of interaction with the filament, the filament erupted nearly simultaneously with the onset of the M5.6 flare and evolved into a coronal mass ejection. The sunspot stretched without forming a light bridge, splitting unusually fast (within about a day, complete ≈6 h after the eruption) in two nearly equal parts. The front part separated strongly from the active region to approach the neighbouring active region where all its coronal magnetic connections were rooted. It also rotated rapidly (by 4.9° h-1) and caused significant shear flows at its edge. Conclusions: The eruption resulted from a complex sequence of processes in the (sub-)photosphere and corona. The persistent flows towards the neutral line likely caused the formation of a flux rope that held the filament. These flows, their associated flux cancellation, the emerging flux, and the precursor flare all contributed to the destabilization of the flux rope. We

SEISMIC DISCRIMINATION OF THERMAL AND MAGNETIC ANOMALIES IN SUNSPOT UMBRAE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindsey, C.; Cally, P. S.; Rempel, M.

2010-01-01

Efforts to model sunspots based on helioseismic signatures need to discriminate between the effects of (1) a strong magnetic field that introduces time-irreversible, vantage-dependent phase shifts, apparently connected to fast- and slow-mode coupling and wave absorption and (2) a thermal anomaly that includes cool gas extending an indefinite depth beneath the photosphere. Helioseismic observations of sunspots show travel times considerably reduced with respect to equivalent quiet-Sun signatures. Simulations by Moradi and Cally of waves skipping across sunspots with photospheric magnetic fields of order 3 kG show travel times that respond strongly to the magnetic field and relatively weakly to the thermal anomaly by itself. We note that waves propagating vertically in a vertical magnetic field are relatively insensitive to the magnetic field, while remaining highly responsive to the attendant thermal anomaly. Travel-time measurements for waves with large skip distances into the centers of axially symmetric sunspots are therefore a crucial resource for discrimination of the thermal anomaly beneath sunspot umbrae from the magnetic anomaly. One-dimensional models of sunspot umbrae based on compressible-radiative-magnetic-convective simulations such as by Rempel et al. can be fashioned to fit observed helioseismic travel-time spectra in the centers of sunspot umbrae. These models are based on cooling of the upper 2-4 Mm of the umbral subphotosphere with no significant anomaly beneath 4.5 Mm. The travel-time reductions characteristic of these models are primarily a consequence of a Wilson depression resulting from a strong downward buoyancy of the cooled umbral medium.

Evaluation of nonlinearity and validity of nonlinear modeling for complex time series.

Science.gov (United States)

Suzuki, Tomoya; Ikeguchi, Tohru; Suzuki, Masuo

2007-10-01

Even if an original time series exhibits nonlinearity, it is not always effective to approximate the time series by a nonlinear model because such nonlinear models have high complexity from the viewpoint of information criteria. Therefore, we propose two measures to evaluate both the nonlinearity of a time series and validity of nonlinear modeling applied to it by nonlinear predictability and information criteria. Through numerical simulations, we confirm that the proposed measures effectively detect the nonlinearity of an observed time series and evaluate the validity of the nonlinear model. The measures are also robust against observational noises. We also analyze some real time series: the difference of the number of chickenpox and measles patients, the number of sunspots, five Japanese vowels, and the chaotic laser. We can confirm that the nonlinear model is effective for the Japanese vowel /a/, the difference of the number of measles patients, and the chaotic laser.

Bell numbers, determinants and series

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

In this article, we study Bell numbers and Uppuluri Carpenter numbers. We obtain various expressions and relations between them. These include polynomial recurrences and expressions as determinants of certain matrices of binomial coefficients. Keywords. p-adic series; Bell numbers. 1. Introduction. Bell numbers, Bn [2] ...

Sunspot Oscillations From The Chromosphere To The Corona

Science.gov (United States)

Brynildsen, N.; Maltby, P.; Fredvik, T.; Kjeldseth-Moe, O.

The behavior of the 3 minute sunspot oscillations is studied as a function of temper- ature through the transition region using observations with CDS/SOHO and TRACE. The oscillations occur above the umbra, with amplitudes increasing to a maximum near 200 000 K, then decreasing towards higher temperatures. Deviations from pure linear oscillations are present in several cases. Power spectra of the oscillations are remarkably similar in the chromosphere and through the transition region in contra- diction to the predictions of the sunspot filter theory. The 3 minute oscillations pene- trate to the low temperature end of the corona, where they are channeled into smaller areas coinciding with the endpoints of sunspot coronal loops. This differs from the transition zone where the oscillating region covers the umbra.

Interactions between nested sunspots. 1: The formation and breakup of a delta-type sunspot

Science.gov (United States)

Gaizauskas, V.; Harvey, K. L.; Proulx, M.

1994-01-01

We investigate a nest of sunspots in which three ordinary bipolar pairs of sunspots are aligned collinearly. The usual spreading action of the growing regions brings two spots of leading polarity together (p-p collision) and forces the leading and trailing spots of the two interior regions to overlap inot a single penumbra (p-f collision), thus forming a delta-spot. We examine digitally processed images from the Ottawa River Solar Observatory of two related events inside the delta-spot 5 days after the p-f collision begins: the violent disruption of the f-umbra, and the formation in less than a day of an hydrogen-alpha filament. The evolutionary changes in shape, area, relative motions, and brightness that we measure for each spot in the elongated nest are more compatible with Parker's (1979a) hypothesis of a sunspot as a cluster of flux tubes held together by downdrafts than with the notion of a sunspot as a monolithic plug of magnetic flux. From chromospheric developments over the delta-spot, we show that a shearing motion along a polarity inversion is more effective than convergence for creating a chromospheric filament. We invoke the release of an instability, triggered by a sequence of processes lasting 1 day or more, to explain the disruption of the f-umbra in this delta-spot. We show that the sequence is initiated when the colliding p-f umbrae reach a critical separation around 3200 +/- 200 km. We present a descriptive model in which the reconnected magnetic fields block vertical transport of convective heat flux just beneath the photosphere. We observe the formation of an unusual type of penumbra adjacent to the f-polarity portion of this delta-spot just before its disruption. A tangential penumbral band grows out of disordered matter connected to the f-umbra. We present this as evidence for the extrusion of umbral magnetic flux by thermal plumes rising through a loosely bound umbra.

Observations of the birth and fine structure of sunspot penumbrae

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collados, M.; Garcia de la Rosa, J.I.; Moreno-Insertis, F.; Vazquez, M.

1985-01-01

High resolution white-light pictures of sunspot penumbrae are presented. These include pictures showing details of their filamentary structure and some instances of birth of a penumbra. The observations are discussed in the framework of current penumbra theories. A series of pictures have been presented, which give additional evidence of the existence of dark penumbral filaments as individual structures. With respect to the birth of the penumbra some new observational aspects can be seen. The existence of the filamentary penumbra even in the first moments, its non uniformity and its short length are the major aspects derived from the pictures

Observational Evidence of a Flux Rope within a Sunspot Umbra

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guglielmino, Salvo L.; Zuccarello, Francesca [Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia—Sezione Astrofisica, Università di Catania, Via S. Sofia 78, I-95125 Catania (Italy); Romano, Paolo, E-mail: salvo.guglielmino@oact.inaf.it [INAF—Osservatorio Astrofisico di Catania, Via S. Sofia 78, I-95125 Catania (Italy)

2017-09-10

We observed an elongated filamentary bright structure inside the umbra of the big sunspot in active region NOAA 12529, which differs from the light bridges usually observed in sunspots for its morphology, magnetic configuration, and velocity field. We used observations taken with the Solar Dynamic Observatory satellite to characterize this feature. Its lifetime is 5 days, during which it reaches a maximum length of about 30″. In the maps of the vertical component of the photospheric magnetic field, a portion of the feature has a polarity opposite to that of the hosting sunspot. At the same time, in the entire feature the horizontal component of the magnetic field is about 2000 G, substantially stronger than in the surrounding penumbral filaments. Doppler velocity maps reveal the presence of both upward and downward plasma motions along the structure at the photospheric level. Moreover, looking at the chromospheric level, we noted that it is located in a region corresponding to the edge of a small filament that seems rooted in the sunspot umbra. Therefore, we interpreted the bright structure as the photospheric counterpart of a flux rope touching the sunspot and giving rise to penumbral-like filaments in the umbra.

Solar Indices - Sunspot Numbers

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Collection includes a variety of indices related to solar activity contributed by a number of national and private solar observatories located worldwide. This...

The magnetic nature of umbra-penumbra boundary in sunspots

Science.gov (United States)

Jurčák, J.; Rezaei, R.; González, N. Bello; Schlichenmaier, R.; Vomlel, J.

2018-03-01

Context. Sunspots are the longest-known manifestation of solar activity, and their magnetic nature has been known for more than a century. Despite this, the boundary between umbrae and penumbrae, the two fundamental sunspot regions, has hitherto been solely defined by an intensity threshold. Aim. Here, we aim at studying the magnetic nature of umbra-penumbra boundaries in sunspots of different sizes, morphologies, evolutionary stages, and phases of the solar cycle. Methods: We used a sample of 88 scans of the Hinode/SOT spectropolarimeter to infer the magnetic field properties in at the umbral boundaries. We defined these umbra-penumbra boundaries by an intensity threshold and performed a statistical analysis of the magnetic field properties on these boundaries. Results: We statistically prove that the umbra-penumbra boundary in stable sunspots is characterised by an invariant value of the vertical magnetic field component: the vertical component of the magnetic field strength does not depend on the umbra size, its morphology, and phase of the solar cycle. With the statistical Bayesian inference, we find that the strength of the vertical magnetic field component is, with a likelihood of 99%, in the range of 1849-1885 G with the most probable value of 1867 G. In contrast, the magnetic field strength and inclination averaged along individual boundaries are found to be dependent on the umbral size: the larger the umbra, the stronger and more horizontal the magnetic field at its boundary. Conclusions: The umbra and penumbra of sunspots are separated by a boundary that has hitherto been defined by an intensity threshold. We now unveil the empirical law of the magnetic nature of the umbra-penumbra boundary in stable sunspots: it is an invariant vertical component of the magnetic field.

The EUV Spectrum of Sunspot Plumes Observed by SUMER on ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

tribpo

Abstract. We present results from sunspot observations obtained by. SUMER on SOHO. In sunspot plumes the EUV spectrum differs from the quiet Sun; continua are observed with different slopes and intensities; emission lines from molecular hydrogen and many unidentified species indicate unique plasma conditions ...

TIME DISTRIBUTIONS OF LARGE AND SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS OVER FOUR SOLAR CYCLES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V. B.; Abramenko, V.; Goode, P. R.; Cao, W.; Ozguc, A.; Rozelot, J. P.

2011-01-01

Here we analyze solar activity by focusing on time variations of the number of sunspot groups (SGs) as a function of their modified Zurich class. We analyzed data for solar cycles 20-23 by using Rome (cycles 20 and 21) and Learmonth Solar Observatory (cycles 22 and 23) SG numbers. All SGs recorded during these time intervals were separated into two groups. The first group includes small SGs (A, B, C, H, and J classes by Zurich classification), and the second group consists of large SGs (D, E, F, and G classes). We then calculated small and large SG numbers from their daily mean numbers as observed on the solar disk during a given month. We report that the time variations of small and large SG numbers are asymmetric except for solar cycle 22. In general, large SG numbers appear to reach their maximum in the middle of the solar cycle (phases 0.45-0.5), while the international sunspot numbers and the small SG numbers generally peak much earlier (solar cycle phases 0.29-0.35). Moreover, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux, the facular area, and the maximum coronal mass ejection speed show better agreement with the large SG numbers than they do with the small SG numbers. Our results suggest that the large SG numbers are more likely to shed light on solar activity and its geophysical implications. Our findings may also influence our understanding of long-term variations of the total solar irradiance, which is thought to be an important factor in the Sun-Earth climate relationship.

A new look at sunspot formation using theory and observations

Science.gov (United States)

Losada, I. R.; Warnecke, J.; Glogowski, K.; Roth, M.; Brandenburg, A.; Kleeorin, N.; Rogachevskii, I.

2017-10-01

Sunspots are of basic interest in the study of the Sun. Their relevance ranges from them being an activity indicator of magnetic fields to being the place where coronal mass ejections and flares erupt. They are therefore also an important ingredient of space weather. Their formation, however, is still an unresolved problem in solar physics. Observations utilize just 2D surface information near the spot, but it is debatable how to infer deep structures and properties from local helioseismology. For a long time, it was believed that flux tubes rising from the bottom of the convection zone are the origin of the bipolar sunspot structure seen on the solar surface. However, this theory has been challenged, in particular recently by new surface observation, helioseismic inversions, and numerical models of convective dynamos. In this article we discuss another theoretical approach to the formation of sunspots: the negative effective magnetic pressure instability. This is a large-scale instability, in which the total (kinetic plus magnetic) turbulent pressure can be suppressed in the presence of a weak large-scale magnetic field, leading to a converging downflow, which eventually concentrates the magnetic field within it. Numerical simulations of forced stratified turbulence have been able to produce strong super-equipartition flux concentrations, similar to sunspots at the solar surface. In this framework, sunspots would only form close to the surface due to the instability constraints on stratification and rotation. Additionally, we present some ideas from local helioseismology, where we plan to use the Hankel analysis to study the pre-emergence phase of a sunspot and to constrain its deep structure and formation mechanism.

Probability Estimates of Solar Proton Doses During Periods of Low Sunspot Number for Short Duration Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Atwell, William; Tylka, Allan J.; Dietrich, William F.; Rojdev, Kristina; Matzkind, Courtney

2016-01-01

In an earlier paper presented at ICES in 2015, we investigated solar particle event (SPE) radiation exposures (absorbed dose) to small, thinly-shielded spacecraft during a period when the monthly smoothed sunspot number (SSN) was less than 30. Although such months are generally considered "solar-quiet", SPEs observed during these months even include Ground Level Events, the most energetic type of SPE. In this paper, we add to previous study those SPEs that occurred in 1973-2015 when the SSN was greater than 30 but less than 50. Based on the observable energy range of the solar protons, we classify the event as GLEs, sub-GLEs, and sub-sub-GLEs, all of which are potential contributors to the radiation hazard. We use the spectra of these events to construct a probabilistic model of the absorbed dose due to solar protons when SSN < 50 at various confidence levels for various depths of shielding and for various mission durations. We provide plots and tables of solar proton-induced absorbed dose as functions of confidence level, shielding thickness, and mission-duration that will be useful to system designers.

Identification of possible intense historical geomagnetic storms using combined sunspot and auroral observations from East Asia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. M. Willis

2005-03-01

Full Text Available Comprehensive catalogues of ancient sunspot and auroral observations from East Asia are used to identify possible intense historical geomagnetic storms in the interval 210 BC-AD 1918. There are about 270 entries in the sunspot catalogue and about 1150 entries in the auroral catalogue. Special databases have been constructed in which the scientific information in these two catalogues is placed in specified fields. For the purposes of this study, an historical geomagnetic storm is defined in terms of an auroral observation that is apparently associated with a particular sunspot observation, in the sense that the auroral observation occurred within several days of the sunspot observation. More precisely, a selection criterion is formulated for the automatic identification of such geomagnetic storms, using the oriental records stored in the sunspot and auroral databases. The selection criterion is based on specific assumptions about the duration of sunspot visibility with the unaided eye, the likely range of heliographic longitudes of an energetic solar feature, and the likely range of transit times for ejected solar plasma to travel from the Sun to the Earth. This selection criterion results in the identification of nineteen putative historical geomagnetic storms, although two of these storms are spurious in the sense that there are two examples of a single sunspot observation being associated with two different auroral observations separated by more than half a (synodic solar rotation period. The literary and scientific reliabilities of the East Asian sunspot and auroral records that define the nineteen historical geomagnetic storms are discussed in detail in a set of appendices. A possible time sequence of events is presented for each geomagnetic storm, including possible dates for both the central meridian passage of the sunspot and the occurrence of the energetic solar feature, as well as likely transit times for the ejected solar plasma

Relation of flare activity to the approach and separation of sunspots in an active region and to its magnetic properties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Markova, E.

1978-01-01

The relation between the flare activity of active regions within the scope of a large complex and the magnetic gradients of these active regions and their daily variations is investigated in the interval of the exceptionally high flare activity occurring in June 1970. New indices, characterizing the active region, were defined, e.g., the instantaneous sunspot-area density and the instantaneous sunspot-number density. These indices were determined on the basis of measurements of the surface containing all sunspots of the complex of active regions enclosed by an envelope. An attempt was made to substitute the surface in the relation for the individual indices by distance. The daily variations of these indices were again compared with the flare activity and some mutual relations were derived. (author)

Investigation of Quasi-periodic Solar Oscillations in Sunspots Based on SOHO/MDI Magnetograms

Science.gov (United States)

Kallunki, J.; Riehokainen, A.

2012-10-01

In this work we study quasi-periodic solar oscillations in sunspots, based on the variation of the amplitude of the magnetic field strength and the variation of the sunspot area. We investigate long-period oscillations between three minutes and ten hours. The magnetic field synoptic maps were obtained from the SOHO/MDI. Wavelet (Morlet), global wavelet spectrum (GWS) and fast Fourier transform (FFT) methods are used in the periodicity analysis at the 95 % significance level. Additionally, the quiet Sun area (QSA) signal and an instrumental effect are discussed. We find several oscillation periods in the sunspots above the 95 % significance level: 3 - 5, 10 - 23, 220 - 240, 340 and 470 minutes, and we also find common oscillation periods (10 - 23 minutes) between the sunspot area variation and that of the magnetic field strength. We discuss possible mechanisms for the obtained results, based on the existing models for sunspot oscillations.

Photoelectric observations of propagating sunspot oscillations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lites, B.W.; White, O.R.; Packman, D.

1982-01-01

The Sacramento Park Observatory Vacuum Tower Telescope and diode array were used to make repeated intensity and velocity images of a large, isolated sunspot in both a chromospheric (lambda8542 Ca II) and a photospheric (lambda5576 Fe I) line. The movie of the digital data for the chromospheric line shows clearly a relationship between the propagating umbral disturbances and the running penumbral waves. The velocities for transverse propagating of the umbral and penumbral disturbances are 60--70 km s -1 and 20--35 km s -1 , respectively. Power spectra of the oscillations show a sharp peak at a period of about 170 s in both the velocity and intensity signals. The rms velocity fluctuation of this power peak is 0.26 km s -1 . The oscillations at any given point in the sunspot are very regular, and the phase relationship between the velocity and intensity of the chromospheric oscillations is radically different than that for the quiet Sun. Our preliminary interpretation of the phase relationship involves acoustic waves with wave vector directed downwards along the magnetic field lines; however, this interpretation relies on assumptions involved in the data reduction scheme. The mechanical energy flux carried by the observed umbral disturbances does not appear to be a significant contributor to the overall energy budget of the sunspot or the surrounding active region

On the chromospheric network structure around deVeloped groups of sunspots

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kartashova, L.G.

1980-01-01

The chromospheric network structure around several developed groups of sunspots were studied on the basis of the observations in the Hsub(α) line. The resolution on the filtergrams was of 2. The following was found: 1) in the neighbourhood of the groups of sunspots 70% (from 870) of network cells stretch along fibrils direction (with accuracy 30 deg), and 15% of cells stretch approximately across that (at angles 70-90 deg); 2) out of the boundary of the main radial fibrils structure the groups of sunspots is often rounded by the system of network cells stretched approximately perpendicular to radial direction

WAVES AS THE SOURCE OF APPARENT TWISTING MOTIONS IN SUNSPOT PENUMBRAE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bharti, L.; Cameron, R. H.; Hirzberger, J.; Solanki, S. K.; Rempel, M.

2012-01-01

The motion of dark striations across bright filaments in a sunspot penumbra has become an important new diagnostic of convective gas flows in penumbral filaments. The nature of these striations has, however, remained unclear. Here, we present an analysis of small-scale motions in penumbral filaments in both simulations and observations. The simulations, when viewed from above, show fine structure with dark lanes running outward from the dark core of the penumbral filaments. The dark lanes either occur preferentially on one side or alternate between both sides of the filament. We identify this fine structure with transverse (kink) oscillations of the filament, corresponding to a sideways swaying of the filament. These oscillations have periods in the range of 5-7 minutes and propagate outward and downward along the filament. Similar features are found in observed G-band intensity time series of penumbral filaments in a sunspot located near disk center obtained by the Broadband Filter Imager on board the Hinode. We also find that some filaments show dark striations moving to both sides of the filaments. Based on the agreement between simulations and observations we conclude that the motions of these striations are caused by transverse oscillations of the underlying bright filaments.

The photospheric vector magnetic field of a sunspot and its vertical gradient

Science.gov (United States)

Hagyard, M. J.; West, E. A.; Tandberg-Hanssen, E.; Smith, J. E.; Henze, W., Jr.; Beckers, J. M.; Bruner, E. C.; Hyder, C. L.; Gurman, J. B.; Shine, R. A.

1981-01-01

The results of direct comparisons of photospheric and transition region line-of-sight field observations of sunspots using the SMM UV spectrometer and polarimeter are reported. The analysis accompanying the data is concentrated on demonstrating that the sunspot concentrated magnetic field extends into the transition region. An observation of a sunspot on Oct. 23, 1980 at the S 18 E 03 location is used as an example. Maximum field strengths ranged from 2030-2240 gauss for large and small umbrae viewed and inclination of the field to the line-of-sight was determined for the photosphere and transition region. The distribution of the magnetic field over the sunspot and variation of the line-of-sight gradient are discussed, as are the magnitudes and gradients of the photospheric field across the penumbral-photospheric boundaries.

ASYMMETRIC SUNSPOT ACTIVITY AND THE SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE HELIOSPHERIC CURRENT SHEET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Y.-M.; Robbrecht, E.

2011-01-01

Observations of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) have suggested a statistical tendency for the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) to be shifted a few degrees southward of the heliographic equator during the period 1965-2010, particularly in the years near sunspot minimum. Using potential-field source-surface extrapolations and photospheric flux-transport simulations, we demonstrate that this southward displacement follows from Joy's law and the observed hemispheric asymmetry in the sunspot numbers, with activity being stronger in the southern (northern) hemisphere during the declining (rising) phase of cycles 20-23. The hemispheric asymmetry gives rise to an axisymmetric quadrupole field, whose equatorial zone has the sign of the leading-polarity flux in the dominant hemisphere; during the last four cycles, the polarity of the IMF around the equator thus tended to match that of the north polar field both before and after polar field reversal. However, large fluctuations are introduced by the nonaxisymmetric field components, which depend on the longitudinal distribution of sunspot activity in either hemisphere. Consistent with this model, the HCS showed an average northward displacement during cycle 19, when the 'usual' alternation was reversed and the northern hemisphere became far more active than the southern hemisphere during the declining phase of the cycle. We propose a new method for determining the north-south displacement of the HCS from coronal streamer observations.

Vertical gradients of sunspot magnetic fields

Science.gov (United States)

Hagyard, M. J.; Teuber, D.; West, E. A.; Tandberg-Hanssen, E.; Henze, W., Jr.; Beckers, J. M.; Bruner, M.; Hyder, C. L.; Woodgate, B. E.

1983-01-01

The results of a Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) guest investigation to determine the vertical gradients of sunspot magnetic fields for the first time from coordinated observations of photospheric and transition-region fields are described. Descriptions are given of both the photospheric vector field of a sunspot, derived from observations using the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center vector magnetograph, and of the line-of-sight component in the transition region, obtained from the SMM Ultraviolet Spectrometer and Polarimeter instrument. On the basis of these data, vertical gradients of the line-of-sight magnetic field component are calculated using three methods. It is found that the vertical gradient of Bz is lower than values from previous studies and that the transition-region field occurs at a height of approximately 4000-6000 km above the photosphere.

Sunspot Equilibria in a Production Economy: Do Rational Animal Spirits Cause Overproduction?

OpenAIRE

Kajii, Atsushi

2008-01-01

We study a standard two period economy with one nominal bond and one firm. The input of the firm is done in the first period and financed with the nominal bond, and its profits are distributed to the shareholders in the second period. We show that a sunspot equilibrium exists around each efficient equilibrium. The interest rate is lower than optimal and there is over production in sunspot equilibria, under some conditions. But a sunspot equilibrium does not exist if the profit share can be tr...

Prediction on sunspot activity based on fuzzy information granulation and support vector machine

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Lingling; Yan, Haisheng; Yang, Zhigang

2018-04-01

In order to analyze the range of sunspots, a combined prediction method of forecasting the fluctuation range of sunspots based on fuzzy information granulation (FIG) and support vector machine (SVM) was put forward. Firstly, employing the FIG to granulate sample data and extract va)alid information of each window, namely the minimum value, the general average value and the maximum value of each window. Secondly, forecasting model is built respectively with SVM and then cross method is used to optimize these parameters. Finally, the fluctuation range of sunspots is forecasted with the optimized SVM model. Case study demonstrates that the model have high accuracy and can effectively predict the fluctuation of sunspots.

Corona magnetic field over sunspots estimated by m-wave observation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kurihara, Masahiro

1974-01-01

The shape of the magnetic field in corona was estimated from the observation of the type I storm occurred in the last decade of August, 1971. It was found from the observation with a 160 MHz interferometer at Mt. Nobeyama that at most three storm sources, which are called radio wave source, were produced. The radio wave sources were fixed above sunspots. The height of the radio wave sources was estimated to be 0.45 R from the photosphere. The sunspots under the radio wave sources can be classified to four sub-groups. Weakening of the magnetic field on the photosphere was found from the reduction of the area of some sub-group. The relation between the activity of type I storm and the intensity of the magnetic field of sunspots is qualitatively suggested. It is considered that the radio wave sources and the sunspots were connected by common magnetic force lines. The probable magnetic field in corona was presumed and is shown in a figure. An interesting point is that the direction of magnetic force lines inclined by about 30 0 outward to the vertical line to the photosphere surface. (Kato, T.)

A Test of the Active-Day Fraction Method of Sunspot Group Number Calibration: Dependence on the Level of Solar Activity

Science.gov (United States)

Willamo, T.; Usoskin, I. G.; Kovaltsov, G. A.

2018-04-01

The method of active-day fraction (ADF) was proposed recently to calibrate different solar observers to standard observational conditions. The result of the calibration may depend on the overall level of solar activity during the observational period. This dependency is studied quantitatively using data of the Royal Greenwich Observatory by formally calibrating synthetic pseudo-observers to the full reference dataset. It is shown that the sunspot group number is precisely estimated by the ADF method for periods of moderate activity, may be slightly underestimated by 0.5 - 1.5 groups ({≤} 10%) for strong and very strong activity, and is strongly overestimated by up to 2.5 groups ({≤} 30%) for weak-to-moderate activity. The ADF method becomes inapplicable for the periods of grand minima of activity. In general, the ADF method tends to overestimate the overall level of activity and to reduce the long-term trends.

SUNSPOT CYCLES IMPACTS ON TOURISM AND QUALITY OF LIFE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tadeja Jere Jakulin

2017-09-01

Full Text Available We live under the influence of natural cycles caused by the rotation of our planet and its revolution around the sun. The nature of our nearest star is also subject to cyclical change. This article presents a study of a correlation between sunspot cycles and foreign tourists arrivals in Slovenia, based on historical data between sunspot cycles and sea salt production in Slovenia's Municipality of Piran during the Maunder Minimum period (1645-1715. The production of salt by the solar evaporation of brine in salt pans and tourist industry are seasonal economic activities that are affected by changes to the weather. The paper looks at sea salt production in Piran during a particular period in the past. The repetition of the sea salt production in the past is not possible. For this reason, the study uses mathematical tools and an additional case study, which analyses arrivals of foreign tourists to Slovenia over the past 65 years (1948-2012. The study has two purposes: to identify a linear correlation coefficient, which provides evidence of a correlation between arrivals of foreign tourists to Slovenia and sunspot cycles and to develop a causal loop diagram (CLD or so called qualitative model of a complex tourism system, which shows the interdependency of sunspot cycles, tourism system, and quality of life.

Physical Properties of Umbral Dots Observed in Sunspots: A Hinode Observation

Science.gov (United States)

Yadav, Rahul; Mathew, Shibu K.

2018-04-01

Umbral dots (UDs) are small-scale bright features observed in the umbral part of sunspots and pores. It is well established that they are manifestations of magnetoconvection phenomena inside umbrae. We study the physical properties of UDs in different sunspots and their dependence on decay rate and filling factor. We have selected high-resolution, G-band continuum filtergrams of seven sunspots from Hinode to study their physical properties. We have also used Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) continuum images to estimate the decay rate of selected sunspots. An identification and tracking algorithm was developed to identify the UDs in time sequences. The statistical analysis of UDs exhibits an averaged maximum intensity and effective diameter of 0.26 I_{QS} and 270 km. Furthermore, the lifetime, horizontal speed, trajectory length, and displacement length (birth-death distance) of UDs are 8.19 minutes, 0.5 km s-1, 284 km, and 155 km, respectively. We also find a positive correlation between intensity-diameter, intensity-lifetime, and diameter-lifetime of UDs. However, UD properties do not show any significant relation with the decay rate or filling factor.

On the structure of small sunspots

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ringnes, T.S.

1984-01-01

The smallest and most short-lived sunspots are decribed differently at the observatories in Zuerich and Greenwich. These differences which seem to originate both from the observing procedure and from the definitions of penumbra and umbra adopted, are further discussed

Prediction of solar cycle 24 using fourier series analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khalid, M.; Sultana, M.; Zaidi, F.

2014-01-01

Predicting the behavior of solar activity has become very significant. It is due to its influence on Earth and the surrounding environment. Apt predictions of the amplitude and timing of the next solar cycle will aid in the estimation of the several results of Space Weather. In the past, many prediction procedures have been used and have been successful to various degrees in the field of solar activity forecast. In this study, Solar cycle 24 is forecasted by the Fourier series method. Comparative analysis has been made by auto regressive integrated moving averages method. From sources, January 2008 was the minimum preceding solar cycle 24, the amplitude and shape of solar cycle 24 is approximate on monthly number of sunspots. This forecast framework approximates a mean solar cycle 24, with the maximum appearing during May 2014 (+- 8 months), with most sunspot of 98 +- 10. Solar cycle 24 will be ending in June 2020 (+- 7 months). The difference between two consecutive peak values of solar cycles (i.e. solar cycle 23 and 24 ) is 165 months(+- 6 months). (author)

Critical frequencies of the ionospheric F1 and F2 layers during the last four solar cycles: Sunspot group type dependencies

Science.gov (United States)

Yiǧit, Erdal; Kilcik, Ali; Elias, Ana Georgina; Dönmez, Burçin; Ozguc, Atila; Yurchshyn, Vasyl; Rozelot, Jean-Pierre

2018-06-01

The long term solar activity dependencies of ionospheric F1 and F2 regions' critical frequencies (f0F1 and f0F2) are analyzed for the last four solar cycles (1976-2015). We show that the ionospheric F1 and F2 regions have different solar activity dependencies in terms of the sunspot group (SG) numbers: F1 region critical frequency (f0F1) peaks at the same time with the small SG numbers, while the f0F2 reaches its maximum at the same time with the large SG numbers, especially during the solar cycle 23. The observed differences in the sensitivity of ionospheric critical frequencies to sunspot group (SG) numbers provide a new insight into the solar activity effects on the ionosphere and space weather. While the F1 layer is influenced by the slow solar wind, which is largely associated with small SGs, the ionospheric F2 layer is more sensitive to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and fast solar winds, which are mainly produced by large SGs and coronal holes. The SG numbers maximize during of peak of the solar cycle and the number of coronal holes peaks during the sunspot declining phase. During solar minimum there are relatively less large SGs, hence reduced CME and flare activity. These results provide a new perspective for assessing how the different regions of the ionosphere respond to space weather effects.

Sunspots sketches during the solar eclipses of 9th January and 29th December of 1777 in Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Domínguez-Castro, Fernando; Gallego, María Cruz; Vaquero, José Manuel

2017-06-01

Two sunspot observations recorded by the Mexican Felipe de Zúñiga y Ontiveros have been revealed from a manuscript. One sunspot group was recorded on 9th January 1777 and four sunspot groups on 29th December 1777. Both records were taken during the observation of solar eclipses from Mexico City and their description also included sketches of the solar disk with sunspots. The sunspot group corresponding to 9th January was also observed by Erasmus Lievog. The observation on 29th December 1777 is the only record corresponding to this date.

On two populations of sunspot groups

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuklin, G.V.

1980-01-01

The principal component method was applied studying the sunspot groups distribution in respect to the maximum area for the individual 11-year cycles 12 to 19 (Lopez Arroyo and Lahulla, 1974) and for the years 1900 to 1964 (Mandrykina, 1974). The existence of two populations of sunspot groups is confirmed. The variations of the importance parameter q, which determines the population shares, in the 80-, 22- and 11-year cycles are considered. The obtained maximal area distributions for populations I and II are approximated by linear combination of logarithmic-normal distributions, the subpopulations Ia, Ib, Ic by the most probable maximum areas of 22, 298 and 90 mvh, respectively, and the subpopulations IIa, IIb, IIc by the most probable maximal areas of 6, 142 and 754 mvh, respectively. The characteristic distinction between populations I and II is apparently the magnetic structure of the groups belonging to them (bipolar and unipolar ones). (author)

A Relationship Between the Solar Rotation and Activity Analysed by Tracing Sunspot Groups

Science.gov (United States)

Ruždjak, Domagoj; Brajša, Roman; Sudar, Davor; Skokić, Ivica; Poljančić Beljan, Ivana

2017-12-01

The sunspot position published in the data bases of the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR), the US Air Force Solar Optical Observing Network and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USAF/NOAA), and of the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) in the period 1874 to 2016 were used to calculate yearly values of the solar differential-rotation parameters A and B. These differential-rotation parameters were compared with the solar-activity level. We found that the Sun rotates more differentially at the minimum than at the maximum of activity during the epoch 1977 - 2016. An inverse correlation between equatorial rotation and solar activity was found using the recently revised sunspot number. The secular decrease of the equatorial rotation rate that accompanies the increase in activity stopped in the last part of the twentieth century. It was noted that when a significant peak in equatorial rotation velocity is observed during activity minimum, the next maximum is weaker than the previous one.

MEASUREMENTS OF THE ABSORPTION AND SCATTERING CROSS SECTIONS FOR THE INTERACTION OF SOLAR ACOUSTIC WAVES WITH SUNSPOTS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Hui; Chou, Dean-Yi

2016-01-01

The solar acoustic waves are modified by the interaction with sunspots. The interaction can be treated as a scattering problem: an incident wave propagating toward a sunspot is scattered by the sunspot into different modes. The absorption cross section and scattering cross section are two important parameters in the scattering problem. In this study, we use the wavefunction of the scattered wave, measured with a deconvolution method, to compute the absorption cross section σ ab and the scattering cross section σ sc for the radial order n = 0–5 for two sunspots, NOAA 11084 and NOAA 11092. In the computation of the cross sections, the random noise and dissipation in the measured acoustic power are corrected. For both σ ab and σ sc , the value of NOAA 11092 is greater than that of NOAA 11084, but their overall n dependence is similar: decreasing with n . The ratio of σ ab of NOAA 11092 to that of NOAA 11084 approximately equals the ratio of sunspot radii for all n , while the ratio of σ sc of the two sunspots is greater than the ratio of sunspot radii and increases with n . This suggests that σ ab is approximately proportional to the sunspot radius, while the dependence of σ sc on radius is faster than the linear increase.

MEASUREMENTS OF THE ABSORPTION AND SCATTERING CROSS SECTIONS FOR THE INTERACTION OF SOLAR ACOUSTIC WAVES WITH SUNSPOTS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhao, Hui [National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 200012 (China); Chou, Dean-Yi, E-mail: chou@phys.nthu.edu.tw [Physics Department, National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan (China)

2016-05-01

The solar acoustic waves are modified by the interaction with sunspots. The interaction can be treated as a scattering problem: an incident wave propagating toward a sunspot is scattered by the sunspot into different modes. The absorption cross section and scattering cross section are two important parameters in the scattering problem. In this study, we use the wavefunction of the scattered wave, measured with a deconvolution method, to compute the absorption cross section σ {sub ab} and the scattering cross section σ {sub sc} for the radial order n = 0–5 for two sunspots, NOAA 11084 and NOAA 11092. In the computation of the cross sections, the random noise and dissipation in the measured acoustic power are corrected. For both σ {sub ab} and σ {sub sc}, the value of NOAA 11092 is greater than that of NOAA 11084, but their overall n dependence is similar: decreasing with n . The ratio of σ {sub ab} of NOAA 11092 to that of NOAA 11084 approximately equals the ratio of sunspot radii for all n , while the ratio of σ {sub sc} of the two sunspots is greater than the ratio of sunspot radii and increases with n . This suggests that σ {sub ab} is approximately proportional to the sunspot radius, while the dependence of σ {sub sc} on radius is faster than the linear increase.

Frequently Occurring Reconnection Jets from Sunspot Light Bridges

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Hui; Yurchyshyn, Vasyl; Peter, Hardi; Solanki, Sami K.; Young, Peter R.; Ni, Lei; Cao, Wenda; Ji, Kaifan; Zhu, Yingjie; Zhang, Jingwen; Samanta, Tanmoy; Song, Yongliang; He, Jiansen; Wang, Linghua; Chen, Yajie

2018-02-01

Solid evidence of magnetic reconnection is rarely reported within sunspots, the darkest regions with the strongest magnetic fields and lowest temperatures in the solar atmosphere. Using the world’s largest solar telescope, the 1.6 m Goode Solar Telescope, we detect prevalent reconnection through frequently occurring fine-scale jets in the Hα line wings at light bridges, the bright lanes that may divide the dark sunspot core into multiple parts. Many jets have an inverted Y-shape, shown by models to be typical of reconnection in a unipolar field environment. Simultaneous spectral imaging data from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph show that the reconnection drives bidirectional flows up to 200 km s‑1, and that the weakly ionized plasma is heated by at least an order of magnitude up to ∼80,000 K. Such highly dynamic reconnection jets and efficient heating should be properly accounted for in future modeling efforts of sunspots. Our observations also reveal that the surge-like activity previously reported above light bridges in some chromospheric passbands such as the Hα core has two components: the ever-present short surges likely to be related to the upward leakage of magnetoacoustic waves from the photosphere, and the occasionally occurring long and fast surges that are obviously caused by the intermittent reconnection jets.

SPECTROPOLARIMETRICALLY ACCURATE MAGNETOHYDROSTATIC SUNSPOT MODEL FOR FORWARD MODELING IN HELIOSEISMOLOGY

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Przybylski, D.; Shelyag, S.; Cally, P. S. [Monash Center for Astrophysics, School of Mathematical Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria 3800 (Australia)

2015-07-01

We present a technique to construct a spectropolarimetrically accurate magnetohydrostatic model of a large-scale solar magnetic field concentration, mimicking a sunspot. Using the constructed model we perform a simulation of acoustic wave propagation, conversion, and absorption in the solar interior and photosphere with the sunspot embedded into it. With the 6173 Å magnetically sensitive photospheric absorption line of neutral iron, we calculate observable quantities such as continuum intensities, Doppler velocities, as well as the full Stokes vector for the simulation at various positions at the solar disk, and analyze the influence of non-locality of radiative transport in the solar photosphere on helioseismic measurements. Bisector shapes were used to perform multi-height observations. The differences in acoustic power at different heights within the line formation region at different positions at the solar disk were simulated and characterized. An increase in acoustic power in the simulated observations of the sunspot umbra away from the solar disk center was confirmed as the slow magnetoacoustic wave.

SPECTROPOLARIMETRICALLY ACCURATE MAGNETOHYDROSTATIC SUNSPOT MODEL FOR FORWARD MODELING IN HELIOSEISMOLOGY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Przybylski, D.; Shelyag, S.; Cally, P. S.

2015-01-01

We present a technique to construct a spectropolarimetrically accurate magnetohydrostatic model of a large-scale solar magnetic field concentration, mimicking a sunspot. Using the constructed model we perform a simulation of acoustic wave propagation, conversion, and absorption in the solar interior and photosphere with the sunspot embedded into it. With the 6173 Å magnetically sensitive photospheric absorption line of neutral iron, we calculate observable quantities such as continuum intensities, Doppler velocities, as well as the full Stokes vector for the simulation at various positions at the solar disk, and analyze the influence of non-locality of radiative transport in the solar photosphere on helioseismic measurements. Bisector shapes were used to perform multi-height observations. The differences in acoustic power at different heights within the line formation region at different positions at the solar disk were simulated and characterized. An increase in acoustic power in the simulated observations of the sunspot umbra away from the solar disk center was confirmed as the slow magnetoacoustic wave

Variations and Regularities in the Hemispheric Distributions in Sunspot Groups of Various Classes

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Peng-Xin

2018-05-01

The present study investigates the variations and regularities in the distributions in sunspot groups (SGs) of various classes in the northern and southern hemispheres from Solar Cycles (SCs) 12 to 23. Here, we use the separation scheme that was introduced by Gao, Li, and Li ( Solar Phys. 292, 124, 2017), which is based on A/U ( A is the corrected area of the SG, and U is the corrected umbral area of the SG), in order to separate SGs into simple SGs (A/U ≤ 4.5) and complex SGs (A/U > 6.2). The time series of Greenwich photoheliographic results from 1875 to 1976 (corresponding to complete SCs 12 - 20) and Debrecen photoheliographic data during the period 1974 - 2015 (corresponding to complete SCs 21 - 23) are used to show the distributions of simple and complex SGs in the northern and southern hemispheres. The main results we obtain are reported as follows: i) the larger of the maximum annual simple SG numbers in the two hemispheres and the larger of the maximum annual complex SG numbers in the two hemispheres occur in different hemispheres during SCs 12, 14, 18, and 19; ii) the relative changing trends of two curves - cumulative SG numbers in the northern and southern hemispheres - for simple SGs are different from those for complex SGs during SCs 12, 14, 18, and 21; and iii) there are discrepancies between the dominant hemispheres of simple and complex SGs for SCs 12, 14, 18, and 21.

Sunspot variation and selected associated phenomena: a look at solar cycle 21 and beyond

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilson, R.M.

1982-02-01

Solar sunspot cycles 8 through 21 are reviewed. Mean time intervals are calculated for maximum to maximum, minimum to minimum, minimum to maximum, and maximum to minimum phases for cycles 8 through 20 and 8 through 21. Simple cosine functions with a period of 132 years are compared to, and found to be representative of, the variation of smoothed sunspot numbers at solar maximum and minimum. A comparison of cycles 20 and 21 is given, leading to a projection for activity levels during the Spacelab 2 era (tentatively, November 1984). A prediction is made for cycle 22. Major flares are observed to peak several months subsequent to the solar maximum during cycle 21 and to be at minimum level several months after the solar minimum. Additional remarks are given for flares, gradual rise and fall radio events and 2800 MHz radio emission. Certain solar activity parameters, especially as they relate to the near term Spacelab 2 time frame are estimated

An essay on sunspots and solar flares

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akasofu, S.-I.

1984-01-01

The presently prevailing theories of sunspots and solar flares rely on the hypothetical presence of magnetic flux tubes beneath the photosphere and the two subsequent hypotheses, their emergence above the photosphere and explosive magnetic reconnection, converting magnetic energy carried by the flux tubes for solar flare energy. In this paper, attention is paid to the fact that there are large-scale magnetic fields which divide the photosphere into positive and negative (line-of-sight) polarity regions and that they are likely to be more fundamental than sunspot fields, as emphasized most recently by McIntosh. A new phenomenological model of the sunspot pair formation is then constructed by considering an amplification process of these large-scale fields near their boundaries by shear flows, including localized vortex motions. The amplification results from a dynamo process associated with such vortex flows and the associated convergence flow in the large-scale fields. This dynamo process generates also some of the familiar ''force-free'' fields or the ''sheared'' magnetic fields in which the magnetic field-aligned currents are essential. Upward field-aligned currents generated by the dynamo process are carried by downward streaming electrons which are expected to be accelerated by an electric potential structure; a similar structure is responsible for accelerating auroral electrons in the magnetosphere. Depending on the magnetic field configuration and the shear flows, the current-carrying electrons precipitate into different geometrical patterns, causing circular flares, umbral flares, two-ribbon flares, etc. Thus, it is suggested that ''low temperature flares'' are directly driven by the photospheric dynamo process. (author)

Self-organising mixture autoregressive model for non-stationary time series modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Ni, He; Yin, Hujun

2008-12-01

Modelling non-stationary time series has been a difficult task for both parametric and nonparametric methods. One promising solution is to combine the flexibility of nonparametric models with the simplicity of parametric models. In this paper, the self-organising mixture autoregressive (SOMAR) network is adopted as a such mixture model. It breaks time series into underlying segments and at the same time fits local linear regressive models to the clusters of segments. In such a way, a global non-stationary time series is represented by a dynamic set of local linear regressive models. Neural gas is used for a more flexible structure of the mixture model. Furthermore, a new similarity measure has been introduced in the self-organising network to better quantify the similarity of time series segments. The network can be used naturally in modelling and forecasting non-stationary time series. Experiments on artificial, benchmark time series (e.g. Mackey-Glass) and real-world data (e.g. numbers of sunspots and Forex rates) are presented and the results show that the proposed SOMAR network is effective and superior to other similar approaches.

Studies of kinematic elements in two multicenter sunspot groups

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Korobova, Z.B.

1983-01-01

Some features of kinematic elements (KE) in two multicenter sunspot groups were studied using Tashkent full-disc white light heliograms. KE and morphological elements do not reveal any relationship. A KE coincides with a unipolar or multipolar spot or with part of a spot. It may also contain an extended stream including several spots. Relation of KE to large-scale photospheric magnetic fields is less clear. The line of polarity reversal is, in most cases, the deviding line between two adjacent KE. At the same time, a KE can contain spots of both polarities. Sunspot trajectories in the leading polarity regions show the best similarity. Interactions of KE are greatly influenced by the meridional drift. (author)

Photospheric Origin of Three-minute Oscillations in a Sunspot

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chae, Jongchul; Lee, Jeongwoo; Cho, Kyuhyoun; Song, Donguk [Astronomy Program, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826 (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Kyungsuk; Yurchyshyn, Vasyl [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, 776 Daedeokdae-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34055 (Korea, Republic of)

2017-02-10

The origin of the three-minute oscillations of intensity and velocity observed in the chromosphere of sunspot umbrae is still unclear. We investigated the spatio-spectral properties of the 3 minute oscillations of velocity in the photosphere of a sunspot umbra as well as those in the low chromosphere using the spectral data of the Ni i λ 5436, Fe i λ 5435, and Na i D{sub 2} λ 5890 lines taken by the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph of the 1.6 m New Solar Telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory. As a result, we found a local enhancement of the 3 minute oscillation power in the vicinities of a light bridge (LB) and numerous umbral dots (UDs) in the photosphere. These 3 minute oscillations occurred independently of the 5 minute oscillations. Through wavelet analysis, we determined the amplitudes and phases of the 3 minute oscillations at the formation heights of the spectral lines, and they were found to be consistent with the upwardly propagating slow magnetoacoustic waves in the photosphere with energy flux large enough to explain the chromospheric oscillations. Our results suggest that the 3 minute chromospheric oscillations in this sunspot may have been generated by magnetoconvection occurring in the LB and UDs.

Outflow of chromospheric emission features from the rim of a sunspot

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, S.-Y.

1973-01-01

In viewing a 16 mm movie made from a time sequence of spectroheliograms, some of these emission features are found to move outward from the rim of the sunspot until they are eventually lost in the small plage. There are two interpretations for the streaming of the magnetic features. It is possible that kinks in the line of force propagate along a horizontal extension of the penumbral magnetic field. Alternatively, fragments of the sunspot magnetic field are carried away by the photospheric velocity field.

Parametric Identification of Solar Series based on an Adaptive ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

Department of Computer Science, University of Extremadura, Campus ... els, applying it to the case of sunspot series. .... inspired on the concept of artificial evolution (Goldberg 1989) (Rechenberg 1973) and ... benchmark when na = 5. ... clusion is that an accurate tuning for general purposes could be from na = 5, although.

The 17 GHz active region number

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Selhorst, C. L.; Pacini, A. A. [IP and D-Universidade do Vale do Paraíba-UNIVAP, São José dos Campos (Brazil); Costa, J. E. R. [CEA, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São José dos Campos (Brazil); Giménez de Castro, C. G.; Valio, A. [CRAAM, Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie, São Paulo (Brazil); Shibasaki, K., E-mail: caius@univap.br [Nobeyama Solar Radio Observatory/NAOJ, Minamisaku, Nagano 384-1305 (Japan)

2014-08-01

We report the statistics of the number of active regions (NAR) observed at 17 GHz with the Nobeyama Radioheliograph between 1992, near the maximum of cycle 22, and 2013, which also includes the maximum of cycle 24, and we compare with other activity indexes. We find that NAR minima are shorter than those of the sunspot number (SSN) and radio flux at 10.7 cm (F10.7). This shorter NAR minima could reflect the presence of active regions generated by faint magnetic fields or spotless regions, which were a considerable fraction of the counted active regions. The ratio between the solar radio indexes F10.7/NAR shows a similar reduction during the two minima analyzed, which contrasts with the increase of the ratio of both radio indexes in relation to the SSN during the minimum of cycle 23-24. These results indicate that the radio indexes are more sensitive to weaker magnetic fields than those necessary to form sunspots, of the order of 1500 G. The analysis of the monthly averages of the active region brightness temperatures shows that its long-term variation mimics the solar cycle; however, due to the gyro-resonance emission, a great number of intense spikes are observed in the maximum temperature study. The decrease in the number of these spikes is also evident during the current cycle 24, a consequence of the sunspot magnetic field weakening in the last few years.

Aurorae, sunspots and weather, mainly since A.D. 1200

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schove, D.J.

1981-01-01

Auroral records recieved for the Spectrum of Time project were used in 1955 to estimate sunspot activity and the dates maxima and minima back to 649 B.C. An additional set of rules has been developed and has made possible further improvements utilizing the separate auroral maxima associated with flares and coronal holes on the sun. A further set can now be given. 1) The time between sunspot maxima depends especially on the ratio of the amplitudes: the time between minima is high if the next cycle is very weak and low when the two consecutive cycles are both strong. 2) The time of rise is usually dependent on the strength of the next maxima, and the time of fall is low when a moderate cycle is followed by a strong one. (orig./WL)

On the determination of heliographic positions and rotation velocities of sunspots. Pt. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balthasar, H.

1983-01-01

Using sunspot positions of small sunspots observed at Debrecen and Locarno as well as positions of recurrent sunspots taken from the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (1940-1976) the influence of the Wilson depression on the rotation velocities was investigated. It was found that the Wilson depression can be determined by minimizing errors of the rotation velocities or minimizing the differences of rotation velocities determined from disk passages and central meridian passages. The Wilson depressions found were between 765 km and 2500 km for the first sample while they were between 0 km and several 1000 km for the second sample. The averaged Wilson depression for the second sample is between 500 km and 965 km depending on the reduction method. A dependence of the Wilson depression on the age of the spots investigated seems not to exist. (orig.)

Application of the Markov chain approximation to the sunspot observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Onal, M.

1988-01-01

The positions of the 13,588 sunspot groups observed during the cycle of 1950-1960 at the Istanbul University Observatory have been corrected for the effect of differential rotation. The evolution probability of a sunspot group to the other one in the same region have been determined. By using the Markov chain approximation, the types of these groups and their transition probabilities during the following activity cycle (1950-1960), and the concentration of active regions during 1950-1960 have been estimated. The transition probabilities from the observations of the activity cycle 1960-1970 have been compared with the predicted transition probabilities and a good correlation has been noted. 5 refs.; 2 tabs

MODELING THE CHROMOSPHERE OF A SUNSPOT AND THE QUIET SUN

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Avrett, E.; Tian, H. [Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Landi, E. [Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Curdt, W. [Max Planck Institut für Sonnensystemfoschung, Goettingen (Germany); Wülser, J.-P. [Lockheed Martin Advanced Techonology Center (United States)

2015-10-01

Semiempirical atmospheric modeling attempts to match an observed spectrum by finding the temperature distribution and other physical parameters along the line of sight through the emitting region such that the calculated spectrum agrees with the observed one. In this paper we take the observed spectrum of a sunspot and the quiet Sun in the EUV wavelength range 668–1475 Å from the 2001 SUMER atlas of Curdt et al. to determine models of the two atmospheric regions, extending from the photosphere through the overlying chromosphere into the transition region. We solve the coupled statistical equilibrium and optically thick radiative transfer equations for a set of 32 atoms and ions. The atoms that are part of molecules are treated separately, and are excluded from the atomic abundances and atomic opacities. We compare the Mg ii k line profile observations from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph with the profiles calculated from the two models. The calculated profiles for the sunspot are substantially lower than the observed ones, based on the SUMER models. The only way we have found to raise the calculated Mg ii lines to agree with the observations is to introduce illumination of the sunspot from the surrounding active region.

LONG-TERM MEASUREMENTS OF SUNSPOT MAGNETIC TILT ANGLES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li Jing [Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567 (United States); Ulrich, Roger K., E-mail: jli@igpp.ucla.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567 (United States)

2012-10-20

Tilt angles of close to 30,600 sunspots are determined using Mount Wilson daily averaged magnetograms taken from 1974 to 2012, and SOHO/MDI magnetograms taken from 1996 to 2010. Within a cycle, more than 90% of sunspots have a normal polarity alignment along the east-west direction following Hale's law. The median tilts increase with increasing latitude (Joy's law) at a rate of {approx}0.{sup 0}5 per degree of latitude. Tilt angles of spots appear largely invariant with respect to time at a given latitude, but they decrease by {approx}0.{sup 0}9 per year on average, a trend that largely reflects Joy's law following the butterfly diagram. We find an asymmetry between the hemispheres in the mean tilt angles. On average, the tilts are greater in the Southern than in the Northern Hemisphere for all latitude zones, and the differences increase with increasing latitude.

Response of Solar Irradiance to Sunspot-area Variations

Science.gov (United States)

Dudok de Wit, T.; Kopp, G.; Shapiro, A.; Witzke, V.; Kretzschmar, M.

2018-02-01

One of the important open questions in solar irradiance studies is whether long-term variability (i.e., on timescales of years and beyond) can be reconstructed by means of models that describe short-term variability (i.e., days) using solar proxies as inputs. Preminger & Walton showed that the relationship between spectral solar irradiance and proxies of magnetic-flux emergence, such as the daily sunspot area, can be described in the framework of linear system theory by means of the impulse response. We significantly refine that empirical model by removing spurious solar-rotational effects and by including an additional term that captures long-term variations. Our results show that long-term variability cannot be reconstructed from the short-term response of the spectral irradiance, which questions the extension of solar proxy models to these timescales. In addition, we find that the solar response is nonlinear in a way that cannot be corrected simply by applying a rescaling to a sunspot area.

CHROMOSPHERIC SUNSPOTS IN THE MILLIMETER RANGE AS OBSERVED BY THE NOBEYAMA RADIOHELIOGRAPH

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Iwai, Kazumasa [National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Koganei 184-8795, Tokyo (Japan); Koshiishi, Hideki [Aerospace Research and Development Directorate, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Tsukuba 305-8505 (Japan); Shibasaki, Kiyoto [Nobeyama Solar Radio Observatory, National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, Minamimaki, Nagano 384-1305 (Japan); Nozawa, Satoshi; Miyawaki, Shun; Yoneya, Takuro, E-mail: kazumasa.iwai@nict.go.jp [Department of Science, Ibaraki University, Mito, Ibaraki 310-8512 (Japan)

2016-01-10

We investigate the upper chromosphere and the transition region of the sunspot umbra using the radio brightness temperature at 34 GHz (corresponding to 8.8 mm observations) as observed by the Nobeyama Radioheliograph (NoRH). Radio free–free emission in the longer millimeter range is generated around the transition region, and its brightness temperature yields the region's temperature and density distribution. We use the NoRH data at 34 GHz by applying the Steer-CLEAN image synthesis. These data and the analysis method enable us to investigate the chromospheric structures in the longer millimeter range with high spatial resolution and sufficient visibilities. We also perform simultaneous observations of one sunspot using the NoRH and the Nobeyama 45 m telescope operating at 115 GHz. We determine that 115 GHz emission mainly originates from the lower chromosphere while 34 GHz emission mainly originates from the upper chromosphere and transition region. These observational results are consistent with the radio emission characteristics estimated from current atmospheric models of the chromosphere. On the other hand, the observed brightness temperature of the umbral region is almost the same as that of the quiet region. This result is inconsistent with current sunspot models, which predict a considerably higher brightness temperature of the sunspot umbra at 34 GHz. This inconsistency suggests that the temperature of the region at which the 34 GHz radio emission becomes optically thick should be lower than that predicted by the models.

Predicting physical time series using dynamic ridge polynomial neural networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dhiya Al-Jumeily

Full Text Available Forecasting naturally occurring phenomena is a common problem in many domains of science, and this has been addressed and investigated by many scientists. The importance of time series prediction stems from the fact that it has wide range of applications, including control systems, engineering processes, environmental systems and economics. From the knowledge of some aspects of the previous behaviour of the system, the aim of the prediction process is to determine or predict its future behaviour. In this paper, we consider a novel application of a higher order polynomial neural network architecture called Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network that combines the properties of higher order and recurrent neural networks for the prediction of physical time series. In this study, four types of signals have been used, which are; The Lorenz attractor, mean value of the AE index, sunspot number, and heat wave temperature. The simulation results showed good improvements in terms of the signal to noise ratio in comparison to a number of higher order and feedforward neural networks in comparison to the benchmarked techniques.

Estudios de clima espacial basados en observaciones solares históricas: recientes progresos y perspectivas

Science.gov (United States)

Vaquero, J. M.

During the last decades, an effort has been made to improve the sunspot number time-series, one of the more useful data set for space climate stud- ies, using historical solar observations. Moreover, not only the sunspot number can be studied using these early solar records. During the last years, historical sources (i.e., sunspot drawings and solar radius measurements) have been also used to study the space climate. Here, I review some recent progress on these issues. In a hand, there are some periods with very few sunspot records and sunspot numbers are not so reliable in these intervals. I discuss the quality of sunspot records during these interesting periods: (a) 1610-1645, (b) 1721-1761, and (c) 1779-1795. On the other hand, I dis- cuss the reliability of early sunspot drawings, sunspot position data, and solar diameter determinations to study long-term variations in our Sun. Fi- nally, some information on historical documents from Argentina and Chile related with space climate are summarised. FULL TEXT IN SPANISH

Solar activity and rainfall pattern in Tamil Nadu during the Northeast monsoon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reddy, R.S.; Mukherjee, B.K.; Ramana Murty, Bh.V.

1976-01-01

An attempt is made to examine the association, of any, between the rainfall, in Tamil Nadu and sunspot activity and if so, whether similar periodicities are also present in the sunspot activity. The daily relative sunspot numbers for the period Oct.-Dec. during 1961-70 and the daily sunspot means for the period Oct.-Dec. 1889-1938, as well as the rainfall series for the period Oct.-Nov., during 1961-70 have been analysed by power spectrum. An anti-phase relation was noticed between the rainfall and the sunspot activity. The 15-day periodicity in the rainfall was significant. The sunspot activity also showed similar periodicities as rainfall. The 30-day periodicity in the sunspot activity was significant. (author)

Solar activity and rainfall pattern in Tamil Nadu during the Northeast monsoon

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reddy, R S; Mukherjee, B K; Ramana Murty, Bh V [Indian Inst. of Tropical Meteorology, Pune

1976-12-01

An attempt is made to examine the association, of any, between the rainfall, in Tamil Nadu and sunspot activity and if so, whether similar periodicities are also present in the sunspot activity. The daily relative sunspot numbers for the period Oct.-Dec. during 1961-70 and the daily sunspot means for the period Oct.-Dec. 1889-1938, as well as the rainfall series for the period Oct.-Nov., during 1961-70 have been analysed by power spectrum. An anti-phase relation was noticed between the rainfall and the sunspot activity. The 15-day periodicity in the rainfall was significant. The sunspot activity also showed similar periodicities as rainfall. The 30-day periodicity in the sunspot activity was significant.

Molecular Diagnostics of the Internal Structure of Starspots and Sunspots

Science.gov (United States)

Afram, N.; Berdyugina, S. V.; Fluri, D. M.; Solanki, S. K.; Lagg, A.; Petit, P.; Arnaud, J.

2006-12-01

We have analyzed the usefulness of molecules as a diagnostic tool for studying solar and stellar magnetism with the molecular Zeeman and Paschen-Back effects. In the first part we concentrate on molecules that are observed in sunspots such as MgH and TiO. We present calculated molecular line profiles obtained by assuming magnetic fields of 2-3 kG and compare these synthetic Stokes profiles with spectro-polarimetric observations in sunspots. The good agreement between the theory and observations allows us to turn our attention in the second part to starspots to gain insight into their internal structure. We investigate the temperature range in which the selected molecules can serve as indicators for magnetic fields on highly active cool stars and compare synthetic Stokes profiles with our recent observations.

Initial phase of the development of sunspot groups and their forecast

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berlyand, B.O.; Burov, V.A.; Stepanyan, N.N.

1979-01-01

Some characteristics of the initial phase of sunspot groups and their forecast have been considered. Experimental data on 340 sunspot groups were obtained in 1967-1969. It was found that oscillations of the magnetic flux in the groups indicate the possibility of the existence of typical periods (2 and 4 days) of the magnetic field development. Most of the groups appears in young plages. The probability of the protons injection from the young groups is very small. The typical time of the development of the proton centre is 10-30 days. The characteristics of the group on the first day of its existence are vaguely connected with the lifetime of the group. On the second and third days the magnetic characteristics (the summary magnetic flux and the number of the unipolar regions) have the highest correlation coefficient (approximately 70%) with the lifetime of the group. The problem of the group lifetime forecast was being solved with the pattern recognition technique. On the base of the second day observation of the existence of the group verification of the received forecast 14% exceeds the verification of the climatological forecast. The forecast of the Zurich class with the same technique is effective beginning with the fifth day of the group existence and the forecast of the flare activity of the group since the day of its appearance. The exceeding of the verification as compared with the climatological forecasts in these problems is 10% and 8% accordingly

Records of auroral candidates and sunspots in Rikkokushi, chronicles of ancient Japan from early 7th century to 887

Science.gov (United States)

Hayakawa, Hisashi; Iwahashi, Kiyomi; Tamazawa, Harufumi; Ebihara, Yusuke; Kawamura, Akito Davis; Isobe, Hiroaki; Namiki, Katsuko; Shibata, Kazunari

2017-12-01

We present the results of the surveys on sunspots and auroral candidates in Rikkokushi, Japanese official histories from the early 7th century to 887, to review the solar and auroral activities. In total, we found one sunspot record and 13 auroral candidates in Rikkokushi. We then examine the records of the sunspots and auroral candidates, compare the auroral candidates with the lunar phase to estimate their reliability, and compare the records of the sunspots and auroral candidates with the contemporary total solar irradiance reconstructed from radioisotope data. We also identify the locations of the observational sites to review possible equatorward expansion of the auroral oval. These discussions suggest a major gap in auroral candidates from the late 7th to early 9th centuries, which includes the candidate of the grand minimum reconstructed from the radioisotope data, a similar tendency as the distributions of sunspot records in contemporary China, and a relatively high magnetic latitude of observational sites with a higher potential for observing aurorae more frequently than at present.

Occurrences of flares with type II and IV radio events in interacting sunspot groups in the course of revolutions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klimes, J.; Krivsky, L.

1984-01-01

Using data from 11-year solar cycle No. 20, it was found that flares with type II radio bursts are more than twice as frequent and flares with type IV bursts nearly twice as frequent in sunspot groups which developed close to each other or which merged in the course of revolutions than in isolated sunspot groups. With both types the occurrence of these flares is concentrated in the revolution of the so-called sunspot group interaction (their approximation, merging). (author)

Historical evidence concerning the Sun: interpretation of sunspot records during the telescopic and pretelescopic eras

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stephenson, F.R.

1990-01-01

The value of sunspot observations in investigating solar activity trends - mainly on the centennial to millennial timescale - is considered in some detail. It is shown that although observations made since the mid-eighteenth century are in general very reliable indicators of solar activity, older data are of dubious quality and utility. The sunspot record in both the pretelescopic and early telescopic periods appears to be confused by serious data artefacts. (author)

On the relation between activity-related frequency shifts and the sunspot distribution over the solar cycle 23

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Santos Ângela R. G.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The activity-related variations in the solar acoustic frequencies have been known for 30 years. However, the importance of the different contributions is still not well established. With this in mind, we developed an empirical model to estimate the spot-induced frequency shifts, which takes into account the sunspot properties, such as area and latitude. The comparison between the model frequency shifts obtained from the daily sunspot records and those observed suggests that the contribution from a stochastic component to the total frequency shifts is about 30%. The remaining 70% is related to a global, long-term variation. We also propose a new observable to investigate the short-and mid-term variations of the frequency shifts, which is insensitive to the long-term variations contained in the data. On the shortest time scales the variations in the frequency shifts are strongly correlated with the variations in the total area covered by sunspots. However, a significant loss of correlation is still found, which cannot be fully explained by ignoring the invisible side of the Sun when accounting for the total sunspot area. We also verify that the times when the frequency shifts and the sunspot areas do not vary in a similar way tend to coincide with the times of the maximum amplitude of the quasi-biennial variations found in the seismic data.

Successive X-class Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections Driven by Shearing Motion and Sunspot Rotation in Active Region NOAA 12673

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, X. L.; Wang, J. C.; Pan, G. M.; Kong, D. F.; Xue, Z. K.; Yang, L. H.; Li, Q. L.; Feng, X. S.

2018-03-01

We present a clear case study on the occurrence of two successive X-class flares, including a decade-class flare (X9.3) and two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) triggered by shearing motion and sunspot rotation in active region NOAA 12673 on 2017 September 6. A shearing motion between the main sunspots with opposite polarities began on September 5 and lasted even after the second X-class flare on September 6. Moreover, the main sunspot with negative polarity rotated around its umbral center, and another main sunspot with positive polarity also exhibited a slow rotation. The sunspot with negative polarity at the northwest of the active region also began to rotate counterclockwise before the onset of the first X-class flare, which is related to the formation of the second S-shaped structure. The successive formation and eruption of two S-shaped structures were closely related to the counterclockwise rotation of the three sunspots. The existence of a flux rope is found prior to the onset of two flares by using nonlinear force-free field extrapolation based on the vector magnetograms observed by Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Image. The first flux rope corresponds to the first S-shaped structures mentioned above. The second S-shaped structure was formed after the eruption of the first flux rope. These results suggest that a shearing motion and sunspot rotation play an important role in the buildup of the free energy and the formation of flux ropes in the corona that produces solar flares and CMEs.

On the correlation of longitudinal and latitudinal motions of sunspots

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilman, P.A.

1984-01-01

Using new measurements of positions of individual sunspots and sunspot groups obtained from 62 years of the Mt. Wilson white-light plate collection, we have recomputed the correlation between longitude and latitude motion. Our results for groups are similar to those of Ward (1965a) computed from the Greenwich record, but for individual spots the covariance is reduced by a factor of about 3 from the Ward values, though still of the same sign and still statistically significant. We conclude that there is a real correlation between longitude and latitude movement of individual spots, implying angular momentum transport toward the equator as inferred by Ward. The two thirds reduction in the covariance for individual spots as opposed to groups is probably due to certain properties of spot groups, as first pointed out in an unpublished manuscript by Leighton. (orig.)

NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF CONVERSION TO ALFVÉN WAVES IN SUNSPOTS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khomenko, E.; Cally, P. S.

2012-01-01

We study the conversion of fast magnetoacoustic waves to Alfvén waves by means of 2.5D numerical simulations in a sunspot-like magnetic configuration. A fast, essentially acoustic, wave of a given frequency and wave number is generated below the surface and propagates upward through the Alfvén/acoustic equipartition layer where it splits into upgoing slow (acoustic) and fast (magnetic) waves. The fast wave quickly reflects off the steep Alfvén speed gradient, but around and above this reflection height it partially converts to Alfvén waves, depending on the local relative inclinations of the background magnetic field and the wavevector. To measure the efficiency of this conversion to Alfvén waves we calculate acoustic and magnetic energy fluxes. The particular amplitude and phase relations between the magnetic field and velocity oscillations help us to demonstrate that the waves produced are indeed Alfvén waves. We find that the conversion to Alfvén waves is particularly important for strongly inclined fields like those existing in sunspot penumbrae. Equally important is the magnetic field orientation with respect to the vertical plane of wave propagation, which we refer to as 'field azimuth'. For a field azimuth less than 90° the generated Alfvén waves continue upward, but above 90° downgoing Alfvén waves are preferentially produced. This yields negative Alfvén energy flux for azimuths between 90° and 180°. Alfvén energy fluxes may be comparable to or exceed acoustic fluxes, depending upon geometry, though computational exigencies limit their magnitude in our simulations.

Distribution of electric currents in sunspots from photosphere to corona

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gosain, Sanjay [National Solar Observatory, 950 North Cherry Avenue, Tucson, AZ 85719 (United States); Démoulin, Pascal [Observatoire de Paris, LESIA, UMR 8109 (CNRS), F-92195 Meudon Principal Cedex (France); López Fuentes, Marcelo [Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio (IAFE), UBA-CONICET, CC. 67, Suc. 28 Buenos Aires 1428 (Argentina)

2014-09-20

We present a study of two regular sunspots that exhibit nearly uniform twist from the photosphere to the corona. We derive the twist parameter in the corona and in the chromosphere by minimizing the difference between the extrapolated linear force-free field model field lines and the observed intensity structures in the extreme-ultraviolet images of the Sun. The chromospheric structures appear more twisted than the coronal structures by a factor of two. Further, we derive the vertical component of electric current density, j{sub z} , using vector magnetograms from the Hinode Solar Optical Telescope (SOT). The spatial distribution of j{sub z} has a zebra pattern of strong positive and negative values owing to the penumbral fibril structure resolved by Hinode/SOT. This zebra pattern is due to the derivative of the horizontal magnetic field across the thin fibrils; therefore, it is strong and masks weaker currents that might be present, for example, as a result of the twist of the sunspot. We decompose j{sub z} into the contribution due to the derivatives along and across the direction of the horizontal field, which follows the fibril orientation closely. The map of the tangential component has more distributed currents that are coherent with the chromospheric and coronal twisted structures. Moreover, it allows us to map and identify the direct and return currents in the sunspots. Finally, this decomposition of j{sub z} is general and can be applied to any vector magnetogram in order to better identify the weaker large-scale currents that are associated with coronal twisted/sheared structures.

High Velocity Horizontal Motions at the Edge of Sunspot Penumbrae

Science.gov (United States)

Hagenaar-Daggett, Hermance J.; Shine, R.

2010-05-01

The outer edges of sunspot penumbrae have long been noted as a region of interesting dynamics including formation of MMFs, extensions and retractions of the penumbral tips, fast moving (2-3 km/s) bright features dubbed"streakers", and localized regions of high speed downflows interpreted as Evershed "sinks". Using 30s cadence movies of high spatial resolution G band and Ca II H images taken by the Hinode SOT/FPP instrument from 5-7 Jan 2007, we have been investigating the penumbra around a sunspot in AR 10933. In addition to the expected phenomena, we also see occasional small dark crescent-shaped features with high horizontal velocities (6.5 km/s) in G band movies. These appear to be emitted from penumbral tips. They travel about 1.5 Mm developing a bright wake that evolves into a slower moving (1-2 km/s) bright feature. In some cases, there may be an earlier outward propagating disturbance within the penumbra. We have also analyzed available Fe 6302 Stokes V images to obtain information on the magnetic field. Although only lower resolution 6302 images made with a slower cadence are available for these particular data sets, we can establish that the features have the opposite magnetic polarity of the sunspot. This observation may be in agreement with simulations showing that a horizontal flux tube develops crests that move outward with a velocity as large as 10 km/s. This work was supported by NASA contract NNM07AA01C.

Deciphering solar magnetic activity. I. On the relationship between the sunspot cycle and the evolution of small magnetic features

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McIntosh, Scott W.; Wang, Xin; Markel, Robert S.; Thompson, Michael J. [High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 (United States); Leamon, Robert J.; Malanushenko, Anna V. [Department of Physics, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717 (United States); Davey, Alisdair R. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Howe, Rachel [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT (United Kingdom); Krista, Larisza D. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80205 (United States); Cirtain, Jonathan W. [Marshall Space Flight Center, Code ZP13, Huntsville, AL 35812 (United States); Gurman, Joseph B.; Pesnell, William D., E-mail: mscott@ucar.edu [Solar Physics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States)

2014-09-01

Sunspots are a canonical marker of the Sun's internal magnetic field which flips polarity every ∼22 yr. The principal variation of sunspots, an ∼11 yr variation, modulates the amount of the magnetic field that pierces the solar surface and drives significant variations in our star's radiative, particulate, and eruptive output over that period. This paper presents observations from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and Solar Dynamics Observatory indicating that the 11 yr sunspot variation is intrinsically tied to the spatio-temporal overlap of the activity bands belonging to the 22 yr magnetic activity cycle. Using a systematic analysis of ubiquitous coronal brightpoints and the magnetic scale on which they appear to form, we show that the landmarks of sunspot cycle 23 can be explained by considering the evolution and interaction of the overlapping activity bands of the longer-scale variability.

SUNSPOT AND STARSPOT LIFETIMES IN A TURBULENT EROSION MODEL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Litvinenko, Yuri E. [Department of Mathematics, University of Waikato, P. B. 3105, Hamilton (New Zealand); Wheatland, M. S. [Sydney Institute for Astronomy, School of Physics, The University of Sydney, NSW 2006 (Australia)

2017-01-10

Quantitative models of sunspot and starspot decay predict the timescale of magnetic diffusion and may yield important constraints in stellar dynamo models. Motivated by recent measurements of starspot lifetimes, we investigate the disintegration of a magnetic flux tube by nonlinear diffusion. Previous theoretical studies are extended by considering two physically motivated functional forms for the nonlinear diffusion coefficient D : an inverse power-law dependence D ∝ B {sup −ν} and a step-function dependence of D on the magnetic field magnitude B . Analytical self-similar solutions are presented for the power-law case, including solutions exhibiting “super fast” diffusion. For the step-function case, the heat-balance integral method yields approximate solutions, valid for moderately suppressed diffusion in the spot. The accuracy of the resulting solutions is confirmed numerically, using a method which provides an accurate description of long-time evolution by imposing boundary conditions at infinite distance from the spot. The new models may allow insight into the differences and similarities between sunspots and starspots.

Possibility to explain the temperature distribution in sunspots by an anisotropic heat transfer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eschrich, K O; Krause, F [Akademie der Wissenschaften der DDR, Potsdam. Zentralinstitut fuer Astrophysik

1977-01-01

Numerical solutions of a heat conduction problem in an anisotropic medium are used for a discussion of the possibility to explain the temperature distribution in sunspots and their environment. The anisotropy is assumed being due to the strong magnetic field in sunspots and the region below. This magnetic field forces the convection to take an anisotropic structure (two-dimensional turbulence) and thus the region gets anisotropic conduction properties, on the average. The discussion shows that the observed temperature profiles can be explained in the case the depth of the region of anisotropy is about as large as the diameter of the spot or larger.

MEASUREMENTS OF ABSORPTION, EMISSIVITY REDUCTION, AND LOCAL SUPPRESSION OF SOLAR ACOUSTIC WAVES IN SUNSPOTS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chou, D.-Y.; Liang, Z.-C.; Yang, M.-H.; Zhao Hui; Sun, M.-T.

2009-01-01

The power of solar acoustic waves in magnetic regions is lower relative to the quiet Sun. Absorption, emissivity reduction, and local suppression of acoustic waves contribute to the observed power reduction in magnetic regions. We propose a model for the energy budget of acoustic waves propagating through a sunspot in terms of the coefficients of absorption, emissivity reduction, and local suppression of the sunspot. Using the property that the waves emitted along the wave path between two points have no correlation with the signal at the starting point, we can separate the effects of these three mechanisms. Applying this method to helioseismic data filtered with direction and phase-velocity filters, we measure the fraction of the contribution of each mechanism to the power deficit in the umbra of the leading sunspot of NOAA 9057. The contribution from absorption is 23.3 ± 1.3%, emissivity reduction 8.2 ± 1.4%, and local suppression 68.5 ± 1.5%, for a wave packet corresponding to a phase velocity of 6.98 x 10 -5 rad s -1 .

Automated Sunspot Detection and Classification Using SOHO/MDI Imagery

Science.gov (United States)

2015-03-01

to the geocentric North). 3. Focus and size of the solar disk is adjusted to fit an 18 cm diameter circle on the worksheet. 4. Analyst hand draws the...General Nature of the Sunspot,” The Astrophysical Journal 230, 905–913 (1979). 14. Wheatland, M. S., “A Bayesian Approach to Solar Flare Prediction,” The

Probability Estimates of Solar Particle Event Doses During a Period of Low Sunspot Number for Thinly-Shielded Spacecraft and Short Duration Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Atwell, William; Tylka, Allan J.; Dietrich, William; Rojdev, Kristina; Matzkind, Courtney

2016-01-01

In an earlier paper (Atwell, et al., 2015), we investigated solar particle event (SPE) radiation exposures (absorbed dose) to small, thinly-shielded spacecraft during a period when the sunspot number (SSN) was less than 30. These SPEs contain Ground Level Events (GLE), sub-GLEs, and sub-sub-GLEs (Tylka and Dietrich, 2009, Tylka and Dietrich, 2008, and Atwell, et al., 2008). GLEs are extremely energetic solar particle events having proton energies extending into the several GeV range and producing secondary particles in the atmosphere, mostly neutrons, observed with ground station neutron monitors. Sub-GLE events are less energetic, extending into the several hundred MeV range, but do not produce secondary atmospheric particles. Sub-sub GLEs are even less energetic with an observable increase in protons at energies greater than 30 MeV, but no observable proton flux above 300 MeV. In this paper, we consider those SPEs that occurred during 1973-2010 when the SSN was greater than 30 but less than 50. In addition, we provide probability estimates of absorbed dose based on mission duration with a 95% confidence level (CL). We also discuss the implications of these data and provide some recommendations that may be useful to spacecraft designers of these smaller spacecraft.

3-color photometry of a sunspot using speckle masking techniques

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wiehr, E.; Sütterlin, P.

1998-01-01

A three-colour photometry is used to deduce the temperature of sunspot fine-structures. Using the Speckle-Masking method for image restoration, the resulting images (one per colour and burst) have a spatial resolution only limited by the telescope's aperture, i.e. 95km (blue), 145 km (red) and

Depressed emission between magnetic arcades near a sunspot

Science.gov (United States)

Ryabov, B. I.; Shibasaki, K.

The locations of the depressed emission in microwaves, EUV and soft X-rays are compared with each other and with the location of the plasma outflow in the active region (AR) 8535 on the Sun. We found that two open-field regions overlap the regions of depressed emission near the AR's sunspot. These two open-field regions are simulated with the potential-field source-surface (PFSS) model under radial distances of RSS = 1.8 R⊙ and RSS = 2.5 R⊙. Each open-field region is located between the arcades of the loops of the same magnetic polarity. The former open-field region covers the region of the plasma outflow, which is thus useful for the tests on connection to the heliosphere. The utmost microwave depression of the intensity in the ordinary mode (the Very Large Array 15 GHz observations) also overlaps the region of the plasma outflow and thus indicates this outflow. The lasting for eight days depression in soft X-rays and the SOHO EIT 2.84× 10-8 m images are attributed to the evacuation of as hot coronal plasma as T≥ 2× 106 K from the extended in height (``open") magnetic structures. We conclude that the AR 8535 presents the sunspot atmosphere affected by the large-scale magnetic fields.

THE FORMATION OF AN INVERSE S-SHAPED ACTIVE-REGION FILAMENT DRIVEN BY SUNSPOT MOTION AND MAGNETIC RECONNECTION

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yan, X. L.; Xue, Z. K.; Wang, J. C.; Yang, L. H. [Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650011 (China); Priest, E. R. [Mathematics Institute, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, KY16 9SS (United Kingdom); Guo, Q. L., E-mail: yanxl@ynao.ac.cn [College of Mathematics Physics and Information Engineering, Jiaxing University, Jiaxing 314001 (China)

2016-11-20

We present a detailed study of the formation of an inverse S-shaped filament prior to its eruption in active region NOAA 11884 from 2013 October 31 to November 2. In the initial stage, clockwise rotation of a small positive sunspot around the main negative trailing sunspot formed a curved filament. Then the small sunspot cancelled with the negative magnetic flux to create a longer active-region filament with an inverse S-shape. At the cancellation site a brightening was observed in UV and EUV images and bright material was transferred to the filament. Later the filament erupted after cancellation of two opposite polarities below the upper part of the filament. Nonlinear force-free field extrapolation of vector photospheric fields suggests that the filament may have a twisted structure, but this cannot be confirmed from the current observations.

A model of a sunspot chromosphere based on OSO 8 observations

Science.gov (United States)

Lites, B. W.; Skumanich, A.

1982-01-01

OSO 8 spectrometer observations of the H I, Mg II, and Ca II resonance lines of a large quiet sunspot during November 16-17, 1975, along with a C IV line of that event obtained by a ground-based spectrometer, are analyzed together with near-simultaneous ground-based Stokes measurements to yield an umbral chromosphere and transition region model. Features of this model include a chromosphere that is effectively thin in the resonance lines of H I and Mg II, while being saturated in Ca II, and an upper chromospheric structure similar to that of quiet-sun models. The similarity of the upper chromosphere of the sunspot umbra to the quiet-sun chromosphere suggests that the intense magnetic field plays only a passive role in the chromospheric heating mechanism, and the observations cited indicate that solar-type stars with large areas of ordered magnetic flux would not necessarily exhibit extremely active chromosphere.

SMALL-SCALE AND GLOBAL DYNAMOS AND THE AREA AND FLUX DISTRIBUTIONS OF ACTIVE REGIONS, SUNSPOT GROUPS, AND SUNSPOTS: A MULTI-DATABASE STUDY

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés; Windmueller, John C.; Amouzou, Ernest C.; Longcope, Dana W. [Department of Physics, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717 (United States); Senkpeil, Ryan R. [Department of Physics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907 (United States); Tlatov, Andrey G. [Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station of the Pulkovo Observatory, Kislovodsk 357700 (Russian Federation); Nagovitsyn, Yury A. [Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory, Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg 196140 (Russian Federation); Pevtsov, Alexei A. [National Solar Observatory, Sunspot, NM 88349 (United States); Chapman, Gary A.; Cookson, Angela M. [San Fernando Observatory, Department of Physics and Astronomy, California State University Northridge, Northridge, CA 91330 (United States); Yeates, Anthony R. [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE (United Kingdom); Watson, Fraser T. [National Solar Observatory, Tucson, AZ 85719 (United States); Balmaceda, Laura A. [Institute for Astronomical, Terrestrial and Space Sciences (ICATE-CONICET), San Juan (Argentina); DeLuca, Edward E. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Martens, Petrus C. H., E-mail: munoz@solar.physics.montana.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303 (United States)

2015-02-10

In this work, we take advantage of 11 different sunspot group, sunspot, and active region databases to characterize the area and flux distributions of photospheric magnetic structures. We find that, when taken separately, different databases are better fitted by different distributions (as has been reported previously in the literature). However, we find that all our databases can be reconciled by the simple application of a proportionality constant, and that, in reality, different databases are sampling different parts of a composite distribution. This composite distribution is made up by linear combination of Weibull and log-normal distributions—where a pure Weibull (log-normal) characterizes the distribution of structures with fluxes below (above) 10{sup 21}Mx (10{sup 22}Mx). Additionally, we demonstrate that the Weibull distribution shows the expected linear behavior of a power-law distribution (when extended to smaller fluxes), making our results compatible with the results of Parnell et al. We propose that this is evidence of two separate mechanisms giving rise to visible structures on the photosphere: one directly connected to the global component of the dynamo (and the generation of bipolar active regions), and the other with the small-scale component of the dynamo (and the fragmentation of magnetic structures due to their interaction with turbulent convection)

SOHO sees right through the Sun, and finds sunspots on the far side

Science.gov (United States)

2000-03-01

The story is told today in the journal Science by Charles Lindsey of Tucson, Arizona, and Doug Braun of Boulder, Colorado. They realised that the analytical witchcraft called helioseismic holography might open a window right through the Sun. And the technique worked when they used it to decode waves seen on the visible surface by one of SOHO's instruments, the Michelson Doppler Imager, or MDI. "We've known for ten years that in theory we could make the Sun transparent all the way to the far side," said Charles Lindsey. "But we needed observations of exceptional quality. In the end we got them, from MDI on SOHO." For more than 100 years scientists have been aware that groups of dark sunspots on the Sun's visible face are often the scene of flares and other eruptions. Nowadays they watch the Sun more closely than ever, because modern systems are much more vulnerable to solar disturbances than old-style technology was. The experts can still be taken by surprise, because the Sun turns on its axis. A large group of previously hidden sunspots can suddenly swing into view on the eastern (left-hand) edge of the Sun. It may already be blazing away with menacing eruptions. With a far-side preview of sunspots, nasty shocks for the space weather forecasters may now be avoidable. Last year, French and Finnish scientists used SWAN, another instrument on SOHO, to detect activity on the far side. They saw an ultraviolet glow lighting up gas in the Solar System beyond the Sun, and moving across the sky like a lighthouse beam as the Sun rotated. The method used by Lindsey and Braun with MDI data is completely different, and it pinpoints the source of the activity on the far side. Solar seismology chalks up another success Detection of sound waves reverberating through the Sun opened its gassy interior for investigation, in much the same way as seismologists learned to explore the Earth's rocky interior with earthquake waves. Using special telescopes on the ground and in space

Period and phase comparisons of near-decadal oscillations in solar, geomagnetic, and cosmic ray time series

Science.gov (United States)

Juckett, David A.

2001-09-01

A more complete understanding of the periodic dynamics of the Sun requires continued exploration of non-11-year oscillations in addition to the benchmark 11-year sunspot cycle. In this regard, several solar, geomagnetic, and cosmic ray time series were examined to identify common spectral components and their relative phase relationships. Several non-11-year oscillations were identified within the near-decadal range with periods of ~8, 10, 12, 15, 18, 22, and 29 years. To test whether these frequency components were simply low-level noise or were related to a common source, the phases were extracted for each component in each series. The phases were nearly identical across the solar and geomagnetic series, while the corresponding components in four cosmic ray surrogate series exhibited inverted phases, similar to the known phase relationship with the 11-year sunspot cycle. Cluster analysis revealed that this pattern was unlikely to occur by chance. It was concluded that many non-11-year oscillations truly exist in the solar dynamical environment and that these contribute to the complex variations observed in geomagnetic and cosmic ray time series. Using the different energy sensitivities of the four cosmic ray surrogate series, a preliminary indication of the relative intensities of the various solar-induced oscillations was observed. It provides evidence that many of the non-11-year oscillations result from weak interplanetary magnetic field/solar wind oscillations that originate from corresponding variations in the open-field regions of the Sun.

Sunspot Light Walls Suppressed by Nearby Brightenings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Shuhong; Zhang, Jun; Hou, Yijun; Li, Xiaohong [CAS Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China); Erdélyi, Robertus [Solar Physics and Space Plasma Research Centre, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Hicks Building, Hounsfield Road, Sheffield S3 7RH (United Kingdom); Yan, Limei, E-mail: shuhongyang@nao.cas.cn [Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 (China)

2017-07-01

Light walls, as ensembles of oscillating bright structures rooted in sunspot light bridges, have not been well studied, although they are important for understanding sunspot properties. Using the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph and Solar Dynamics Observatory observations, here we study the evolution of two oscillating light walls each within its own active region (AR). The emission of each light wall decays greatly after the appearance of adjacent brightenings. For the first light wall, rooted within AR 12565, the average height, amplitude, and oscillation period significantly decrease from 3.5 Mm, 1.7 Mm, and 8.5 minutes to 1.6 Mm, 0.4 Mm, and 3.0 minutes, respectively. For the second light wall, rooted within AR 12597, the mean height, amplitude, and oscillation period of the light wall decrease from 2.1 Mm, 0.5 Mm, and 3.0 minutes to 1.5 Mm, 0.2 Mm, and 2.1 minutes, respectively. Particularly, a part of the second light wall even becomes invisible after the influence of a nearby brightening. These results reveal that the light walls are suppressed by nearby brightenings. Considering the complex magnetic topology in light bridges, we conjecture that the fading of light walls may be caused by a drop in the magnetic pressure, where the flux is canceled by magnetic reconnection at the site of the nearby brightening. Another hypothesis is that the wall fading is due to the suppression of driver source ( p -mode oscillation), resulting from the nearby avalanche of downward particles along reconnected brightening loops.

Fine structure in sunspots. IV. Penumbral grains in speckle reconstucted images

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Sobotka, Michal; Suetterlin, P.

2001-01-01

Roč. 380, č. 2 (2001), s. 714-718 ISSN 0004-6361 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KSK2043105; GA AV ČR IAA3003903 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1003909 Keywords : sun * sunspots Subject RIV: BN - Astronomy, Celestial Mechanics, Astrophysics Impact factor: 2.790, year: 2000

Are climatological correlations with the Hale double sunspot cycle meaningful

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldberg, R.A.; Herman, J.R.

1975-09-01

A sunspot cycle which may have been subject to a predicted phase reversal between 1800 and 1880 A.D. is discussed. Several climatological parameters normally correlated with this cycle are examined and do not exhibit a corresponding phase reversal during this period. It is proposed that this apparent discrepency can be resolved by suitable observations during the upcoming half decade

The Formation of a Sunspot Penumbra Sector in Active Region NOAA 12574

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Qiaoling; Yan, Xiaoli; Wang, Jincheng; Kong, DeFang; Xue, Zhike; Yang, Liheng; Cao, Wenda

2018-04-01

We present a particular case of the formation of a penumbra sector around a developing sunspot in the active region NOAA 12574 on 2016 August 11 by using the high-resolution data observed by the New Solar Telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory and the data acquired by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager and the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory satellite. Before the new penumbra sector formed, the developing sunspot already had two umbrae with some penumbral filaments. The penumbra sector gradually formed at the junction of two umbrae. We found that the formation of the penumbra sector can be divided into two stages. First, during the initial stage of penumbral formation, the region where the penumbra sector formed always appeared blueshifted in a Dopplergram. The area, mean transverse magnetic field strength, and total magnetic flux of the umbra and penumbra sector all increased with time. The initial penumbral formation was associated with magnetic emergence. Second, when the penumbra sector appeared, the magnetic flux and area of the penumbra sector increased after the umbra’s magnetic flux and area decreased. These results indicate that the umbra provided magnetic flux for penumbral development after the penumbra sector appeared. We also found that the newly formed penumbra sector was associated with sunspot rotation. Based on these findings, we suggest that the penumbra sector was the result of the emerging flux that was trapped in the photosphere at the initial stage of penumbral formation, and when the rudimentary penumbra formed, the penumbra sector developed at the cost of the umbra.

Temperature mapping of sunspots and pores from speckle reconstructed three colour photometry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sütterlin, P.; Wiehr, E.

1998-01-01

The two-dimensional temperature distribution in a highly structured sunspot and in two small umbrae is determined from a three-colour photometry in narrow spectral continua. Disturbing influences from the earth’s atmosphere are removed by speckle masking techniques, yielding a spatial resolution

On Solar Granulations, Limb Darkening, and Sunspots: Brief Insights in Remembrance of Father Angelo Secchi

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robitaille P.-M.

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Father Angelo Secchi used the existence of solar granulation as a central line of rea- soning when he advanced that the Sun was a gaseous body with a photosphere contain- ing incandescent particulate matter (Secchi A. Sulla Struttura della Fotosfera Solare. Bullettino Meteorologico dell’Osservatorio del Collegio Romano , 30 November 1864, v.3(11, 1–3. Secchi saw the granules as condensed matter emitting the photospheric spectrum, while the darkened intergranular lanes conveyed the presence of a gaseous solar interior. Secchi also considered the nature of sunspots and limb darkening. In the context of modern solar models, opacity arguments currently account for the emis- sive properties of the photosphere. Optical depth is thought to explain limb darkening. Both temperature variations and magnetic fields are invoked to justify the weakened emissivities of sunspots, even though the presence of static magnetic fields in materi- als is not usually associated with modified emissivity. Conversely, within the context of a liquid metallic hydrogen solar model, the appearance of granules, limb darkening, and sunspots can be elegantly understood through the varying directional emissivity of condensed matter. A single explanation is applicable to all three phenomena. Granular contrast can be directly associated with the generation of limb darkening. Depending on size, granules can be analyzed by considering Kolmogoroff’s formulations and B ́ enard convection, respectively, both of which were observed using incompressible liquids, not gases. Granules follow the 2-dimensional space filling laws of Aboav-Weiner and Lewis. Their adherence to these structural laws provides supportive evidence that the granular surface of the Sun represents elements which can only be constructed from condensed matter. A gaseous Sun cannot be confined to a 2-dimensional framework. Mesogranules, supergranules, and giant cells constitute additional entities which further

Ridge Polynomial Neural Network with Error Feedback for Time Series Forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Waheeb, Waddah; Ghazali, Rozaida; Herawan, Tutut

2016-01-01

Time series forecasting has gained much attention due to its many practical applications. Higher-order neural network with recurrent feedback is a powerful technique that has been used successfully for time series forecasting. It maintains fast learning and the ability to learn the dynamics of the time series over time. Network output feedback is the most common recurrent feedback for many recurrent neural network models. However, not much attention has been paid to the use of network error feedback instead of network output feedback. In this study, we propose a novel model, called Ridge Polynomial Neural Network with Error Feedback (RPNN-EF) that incorporates higher order terms, recurrence and error feedback. To evaluate the performance of RPNN-EF, we used four univariate time series with different forecasting horizons, namely star brightness, monthly smoothed sunspot numbers, daily Euro/Dollar exchange rate, and Mackey-Glass time-delay differential equation. We compared the forecasting performance of RPNN-EF with the ordinary Ridge Polynomial Neural Network (RPNN) and the Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network (DRPNN). Simulation results showed an average 23.34% improvement in Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) with respect to RPNN and an average 10.74% improvement with respect to DRPNN. That means that using network errors during training helps enhance the overall forecasting performance for the network.

Ridge Polynomial Neural Network with Error Feedback for Time Series Forecasting.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Waddah Waheeb

Full Text Available Time series forecasting has gained much attention due to its many practical applications. Higher-order neural network with recurrent feedback is a powerful technique that has been used successfully for time series forecasting. It maintains fast learning and the ability to learn the dynamics of the time series over time. Network output feedback is the most common recurrent feedback for many recurrent neural network models. However, not much attention has been paid to the use of network error feedback instead of network output feedback. In this study, we propose a novel model, called Ridge Polynomial Neural Network with Error Feedback (RPNN-EF that incorporates higher order terms, recurrence and error feedback. To evaluate the performance of RPNN-EF, we used four univariate time series with different forecasting horizons, namely star brightness, monthly smoothed sunspot numbers, daily Euro/Dollar exchange rate, and Mackey-Glass time-delay differential equation. We compared the forecasting performance of RPNN-EF with the ordinary Ridge Polynomial Neural Network (RPNN and the Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network (DRPNN. Simulation results showed an average 23.34% improvement in Root Mean Square Error (RMSE with respect to RPNN and an average 10.74% improvement with respect to DRPNN. That means that using network errors during training helps enhance the overall forecasting performance for the network.

The Temperature - Magnetic Field Relation in Observed and Simulated Sunspots

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Sobotka, Michal; Rezaei, R.

2017-01-01

Roč. 292, č. 12 (2017), 188/1-188/12 ISSN 0038-0938 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-04338S; GA MŠk(CZ) 7E13003 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 312495 - SOLARNET Institutional support: RVO:67985815 Keywords : sunspots * magnetic fields * comparison Subject RIV: BN - Astronomy, Celestial Mechanics, Astrophysics OBOR OECD: Astronomy (including astrophysics,space science) Impact factor: 2.682, year: 2016

Emergence of Magnetic Flux Generated in a Solar Convective Dynamo. I. The Formation of Sunspots and Active Regions, and The Origin of Their Asymmetries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Feng; Rempel, Matthias; Fan, Yuhong, E-mail: chenfeng@ucar.edu [High Altitude Observatory, NCAR, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307 (United States)

2017-09-10

We present a realistic numerical model of sunspot and active region formation based on the emergence of flux bundles generated in a solar convective dynamo. To this end, we use the magnetic and velocity fields in a horizontal layer near the top boundary of the solar convective dynamo simulation to drive realistic radiative-magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the uppermost layers of the convection zone. The main results are as follows. (1) The emerging flux bundles rise with the mean speed of convective upflows and fragment into small-scale magnetic elements that further rise to the photosphere, where bipolar sunspot pairs are formed through the coalescence of the small-scale magnetic elements. (2) Filamentary penumbral structures form when the sunspot is still growing through ongoing flux emergence. In contrast to the classical Evershed effect, the inflow seems to prevail over the outflow in a large part of the penumbra. (3) A well-formed sunspot is a mostly monolithic magnetic structure that is anchored in a persistent deep-seated downdraft lane. The flow field outside the spot shows a giant vortex ring that comprises an inflow below 15 Mm depth and an outflow above 15 Mm depth. (4) The sunspots successfully reproduce the fundamental properties of the observed solar active regions, including the more coherent leading spots with a stronger field strength, and the correct tilts of bipolar sunspot pairs. These asymmetries can be linked to the intrinsic asymmetries in the magnetic and flow fields adapted from the convective dynamo simulation.

Time series behaviour of the number of Air Asia passengers: A distributional approach

Science.gov (United States)

Asrah, Norhaidah Mohd; Djauhari, Maman Abdurachman

2013-09-01

The common practice to time series analysis is by fitting a model and then further analysis is conducted on the residuals. However, if we know the distributional behavior of time series, the analyses in model identification, parameter estimation, and model checking are more straightforward. In this paper, we show that the number of Air Asia passengers can be represented as a geometric Brownian motion process. Therefore, instead of using the standard approach in model fitting, we use an appropriate transformation to come up with a stationary, normally distributed and even independent time series. An example in forecasting the number of Air Asia passengers will be given to illustrate the advantages of the method.

The mutual attraction of magnetic knots. [solar hydromagnetic instability in sunspot regions

Science.gov (United States)

Parker, E. N.

1978-01-01

It is observed that the magnetic knots associated with active regions on the sun have an attraction for each other during the formative period of the active regions, when new magnetic flux is coming to the surface. The attraction disappears when new flux ceases to rise through the surface. Then the magnetic spots and knots tend to come apart, leading to disintegration of the sunspots previously formed. The dissolution of the fields is to be expected, as a consequence of the magnetic repulsion of knots of like polarity and as a consequence of the hydromagnetic exchange instability. The purpose of this paper is to show that the mutual attraction of knots during the formative stages of a sunspot region may be understood as the mutual hydrodynamic attraction of the rising flux tubes. Two rising tubes attract each other, as a consequence of the wake of the leading tube when one is moving behind the other, and as a consequence of the Bernoulli effect when rising side by side.

HIGH RESOLUTION He i 10830 Å NARROW-BAND IMAGING OF AN M-CLASS FLARE. I. ANALYSIS OF SUNSPOT DYNAMICS DURING FLARING

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Ya; Su, Yingna; Hong, Zhenxiang; Ji, Haisheng [Key Laboratory of DMSA, Purple Mountain Observatory, CAS, Nanjing, 210008 (China); Zeng, Zhicheng; Goode, Philip R.; Cao, Wenda [Big Bear Solar Observatory, 40386 North Shore Lane, Big Bear City, CA 92314 (United States); Ji, Kaifan [Yunnan Astronomical Observatories, Kunming 650011 (China)

2016-12-20

In this paper, we report our first-step results of high resolution He i 10830 Å narrow-band imaging (bandpass: 0.5 Å) of an M1.8 class two-ribbon flare on 2012 July 5. The flare was observed with the 1.6 m aperture New Solar Telescope at Big Bear Solar Observatory. For this unique data set, sunspot dynamics during flaring were analyzed for the first time. By directly imaging the upper chromosphere, running penumbral waves are clearly seen as an outward extension of umbral flashes; both take the form of absorption in the 10830 Å narrow-band images. From a space–time image made of a slit cutting across a flare ribbon and the sunspot, we find that the dark lanes for umbral flashes and penumbral waves are obviously broadened after the flare. The most prominent feature is the sudden appearance of an oscillating absorption strip inside the ribbon when it sweeps into the sunspot’s penumbral and umbral regions. During each oscillation, outwardly propagating umbral flashes and subsequent penumbral waves rush out into the inwardly sweeping ribbon, followed by a return of the absorption strip with similar speed. We tentatively explain the phenomena as the result of a sudden increase in the density of ortho-helium atoms in the area of the sunspot being excited by the flare’s extreme ultraviolet illumination. This explanation is based on the observation that 10830 Å absorption around the sunspot area gets enhanced during the flare. Nevertheless, questions are still open and we need further well-devised observations to investigate the behavior of sunspot dynamics during flares.

Solar magnetic field studies using the 12 micron emission lines. II - Stokes profiles and vector field samples in sunspots

Science.gov (United States)

Hewagama, Tilak; Deming, Drake; Jennings, Donald E.; Osherovich, Vladimir; Wiedemann, Gunter; Zipoy, David; Mickey, Donald L.; Garcia, Howard

1993-01-01

Polarimetric observations at 12 microns of two sunpots are reported. The horizontal distribution of parameters such as magnetic field strength, inclination, azimuth, and magnetic field filling factors are presented along with information about the height dependence of the magnetic field strength. Comparisons with contemporary magnetostatic sunspot models are made. The magnetic data are used to estimate the height of 12 micron line formation. From the data, it is concluded that within a stable sunspot there are no regions that are magnetically filamentary, in the sense of containing both strong-field and field-free regions.

Preliminary results from the orbiting solar observatory 8: Transition-zone dynamics over a sunspot

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bruner, E.C. Jr.; Chipman, E.G.; Lites, B.W.; Rottman, G.J.; Shine, R.A.; Athay, R.G.; White, O.R.

1976-01-01

The University of Colorado experiment aboard OSO-8 observed the C IV 1548 A line in the bright plume over a sunspot. Transient redshifts at 5 minute intervals were studied, but the expected phenomena associated with simple Alfven wave effects were not observed

ABOLITION OF FRENCH '431K....Z' SERIES VEHICLE NUMBER PLATES

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2001-01-01

Members of the personnel holding a Carte spéciale of the AT or FI series or a Carte d'assimilé à un membre de mission diplomatique issued by the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs are entitled to register their vehicles in special series, namely: «431 K» or «431 CD» for those purchased or imported duty-free; «431 K ... Z» or «431 CD ... Z», for vehicles on which duty and/or tax has been paid in a member state of the European Union. The French Foreign Ministry has now informed CERN that the number plates in the special «431 K ... Z» and «431 CD ... Z» series have been abolished with effect from 1 January 2001. The Ministry considers that the move will result in a considerable saving of time for the users; they will no longer be systematically required to provide proof of payment of duty and/or tax, and the French Administration will no longer have to carry...

Ten cycles of solar and geomagnetic activity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Legrand, J.P.

1981-01-01

Series of 110 years of sunspot numbers and indices of geomagnetic activity are used with 17 years of solar wind data in order to study through solar cycles both stream and shock event solar activity. According to their patterns on Bartels diagrams of geomagnetic indices, stable wind streams and transient solar activities are separated from each other. Two classes of stable streams are identified: equatorial streams occurring sporadically, for several months, during the main phase of sunspot cycles and both polar streams established, for several years, at each cycle, before sunspot minimum. Polar streams are the first activity of solar cycles. For study of the relationship between transient geomagnetic phenomena and sunspot activity, we raise the importance of the contribution, at high spot number, of severe storms and, at low spot number, of short lived and unstable streams. Solar wind data are used to check and complete the above results. As a conclusion, we suggest a unified scheme of solar activity evolution with a starting point every eleventh year, a total duration of 17 years and an overlapping of 6 years between the first and the last phase of both successive series of phenomena: first, from polar field reversal to sunspot minimum, a phase of polar wind activity of the beginning cycle is superimposed on the weak contribution of shock events of the ending cycle; secondly, an equatorial phase mostly of shock events is superimposed on a variable contribution of short lived and sporadic stable equatorial stream activities; and thirdly a phase of low latitude shock events is superimposed on the polar stream interval of the following cycle. (orig.)

Influence of the sunspot cycle on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation from long upper-air data sets

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Y. Brugnara

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Here we present a study of the 11 yr sunspot cycle's imprint on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, using three recently developed gridded upper-air data sets that extend back to the early twentieth century. We find a robust response of the tropospheric late-wintertime circulation to the sunspot cycle, independent from the data set. This response is particularly significant over Europe, although results show that it is not directly related to a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO modulation; instead, it reveals a significant connection to the more meridional Eurasian pattern (EU. The magnitude of mean seasonal temperature changes over the European land areas locally exceeds 1 K in the lower troposphere over a sunspot cycle. We also analyse surface data to address the question whether the solar signal over Europe is temporally stable for a longer 250 yr period. The results increase our confidence in the existence of an influence of the 11 yr cycle on the European climate, but the signal is much weaker in the first half of the period compared to the second half. The last solar minimum (2005 to 2010, which was not included in our analysis, shows anomalies that are consistent with our statistical results for earlier solar minima.

Evaluating an Automated Number Series Item Generator Using Linear Logistic Test Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bao Sheng Loe

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the item properties of a newly developed Automatic Number Series Item Generator (ANSIG. The foundation of the ANSIG is based on five hypothesised cognitive operators. Thirteen item models were developed using the numGen R package and eleven were evaluated in this study. The 16-item ICAR (International Cognitive Ability Resource1 short form ability test was used to evaluate construct validity. The Rasch Model and two Linear Logistic Test Model(s (LLTM were employed to estimate and predict the item parameters. Results indicate that a single factor determines the performance on tests composed of items generated by the ANSIG. Under the LLTM approach, all the cognitive operators were significant predictors of item difficulty. Moderate to high correlations were evident between the number series items and the ICAR test scores, with high correlation found for the ICAR Letter-Numeric-Series type items, suggesting adequate nomothetic span. Extended cognitive research is, nevertheless, essential for the automatic generation of an item pool with predictable psychometric properties.

CHROMOSPHERIC MASS MOTIONS AND INTRINSIC SUNSPOT ROTATIONS FOR NOAA ACTIVE REGIONS 10484, 10486, AND 10488 USING ISOON DATA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hardersen, Paul S.; Balasubramaniam, K. S.; Shkolyar, Svetlana

2013-01-01

This work utilizes Improved Solar Observing Optical Network continuum (630.2 nm) and Hα (656.2 nm) data to: (1) detect and measure intrinsic sunspot rotations occurring in the photosphere and chromosphere, (2) identify and measure chromospheric filament mass motions, and (3) assess any large-scale photospheric and chromospheric mass couplings. Significant results from 2003 October 27-29, using the techniques of Brown et al., indicate significant counter-rotation between the two large sunspots in NOAA AR 10486 on October 29, as well as discrete filament mass motions in NOAA AR 10484 on October 27 that appear to be associated with at least one C-class solar flare

Observations of Running Penumbral Waves Emerging in a Sunspot

Science.gov (United States)

Priya, T. G.; Wenda, Cao; Jiangtao, Su; Jie, Chen; Xinjie, Mao; Yuanyong, Deng; Robert, Erdélyi

2018-01-01

We present results from the investigation of 5 minute umbral oscillations in a single-polarity sunspot of active region NOAA 12132. The spectra of TiO, Hα, and 304 Å are used for corresponding atmospheric heights from the photosphere to lower corona. Power spectrum analysis at the formation height of Hα – 0.6 Å to the Hα center resulted in the detection of 5 minute oscillation signals in intensity interpreted as running waves outside the umbral center, mostly with vertical magnetic field inclination >15°. A phase-speed filter is used to extract the running wave signals with speed v ph > 4 km s‑1, from the time series of Hα – 0.4 Å images, and found twenty-four 3 minute umbral oscillatory events in a duration of one hour. Interestingly, the initial emergence of the 3 minute umbral oscillatory events are noticed closer to or at umbral boundaries. These 3 minute umbral oscillatory events are observed for the first time as propagating from a fraction of preceding running penumbral waves (RPWs). These fractional wavefronts rapidly separate from RPWs and move toward the umbral center, wherein they expand radially outwards suggesting the beginning of a new umbral oscillatory event. We found that most of these umbral oscillatory events develop further into RPWs. We speculate that the waveguides of running waves are twisted in spiral structures and hence the wavefronts are first seen at high latitudes of umbral boundaries and later at lower latitudes of the umbral center.

ACER Mathematics Profile Series: Number Test. (Test Booklet, Answer and Record Sheet, Score Key, and Teachers Handbook).

Science.gov (United States)

Cornish, Greg; Wines, Robin

The Number Test of the ACER Mathematics Profile Series, contains 30 items, for each of three suggested grade levels: 7-8, 8-9, and 9-10. Raw scores on all tests in the ACER Mathematics Profile Series (Number, Operations, Space and Measurement) are converted to a common scale called MAPS, a major feature of the Series. Based on the Rasch Model,…

Characterizing time series via complexity-entropy curves

Science.gov (United States)

Ribeiro, Haroldo V.; Jauregui, Max; Zunino, Luciano; Lenzi, Ervin K.

2017-06-01

The search for patterns in time series is a very common task when dealing with complex systems. This is usually accomplished by employing a complexity measure such as entropies and fractal dimensions. However, such measures usually only capture a single aspect of the system dynamics. Here, we propose a family of complexity measures for time series based on a generalization of the complexity-entropy causality plane. By replacing the Shannon entropy by a monoparametric entropy (Tsallis q entropy) and after considering the proper generalization of the statistical complexity (q complexity), we build up a parametric curve (the q -complexity-entropy curve) that is used for characterizing and classifying time series. Based on simple exact results and numerical simulations of stochastic processes, we show that these curves can distinguish among different long-range, short-range, and oscillating correlated behaviors. Also, we verify that simulated chaotic and stochastic time series can be distinguished based on whether these curves are open or closed. We further test this technique in experimental scenarios related to chaotic laser intensity, stock price, sunspot, and geomagnetic dynamics, confirming its usefulness. Finally, we prove that these curves enhance the automatic classification of time series with long-range correlations and interbeat intervals of healthy subjects and patients with heart disease.

Flow and magnetic field properties in the trailing sunspots of active region NOAA 12396

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Verma, M.; Denker, C.; Boehm, F.; Balthasar, H.; Fischer, C.E.; Kuckein, C.; Gonzalez, N.B.; Berkefeld, T.; Collados Vera, M.; Diercke, A.; Feller, A.; Gonzalez Manrique, S. J.; Hofmann, A.; Lagg, A.; Nicklas, H.; Orozco Suárez, D.; Pator Yabar, A.; Rezaei, R.; Schlichenmaier, R.; Schmidt, D.; Schmidt, W.; Sigwarth, M.; Sobotka, Michal; Solanki, S.K.; Soltau, D.; Staude, J.; Strassmeier, K.G.; Volkmer, R.; von der Lühe, O.; Waldmann, T.A.

2016-01-01

Roč. 337, č. 10 (2016), s. 1090-1098 ISSN 0004-6337. [Dynamic Sun - Exploring the Many Facets of Solar Eruptive Events. Potsdam, 26.10. 2015 -29.10. 2015 ] Institutional support: RVO:67985815 Keywords : Sun * magnetic fields * sunspots Subject RIV: BN - Astronomy, Celestial Mechanics, Astrophysics Impact factor: 0.916, year: 2016

The Earth's Interaction With the Sun Over the Millennia From Analyses of Historical Sunspot, Auroral and Climate Records

Science.gov (United States)

Yau, K.

2001-12-01

A prolonged decrease in the Sun's irradiance during the Maunder Minimum has been proposed as a cause of the Little Ice Age ({ca} 1600-1800). Eddy [{Science} {192}, 1976, 1189] made this suggestion after noting that very few sunspots were observed from 1645 to 1715, indicative of a weakened Sun. Pre-telescopic Oriental sunspot records go back over 2200 years. Periods when no sunspots were seen have been documented by, {eg}, Clark [{Astron} {7}, 2/1979, 50]. Abundances of C 14 in tree rings and Be10 in ice cores are also good indicators of past solar activity. These isotopes are produced by cosmic rays high in the atmosphere. When the Sun is less active more of them are made and deposited at ground level. There is thus a strong {negative} correlation between their abundances and sunspot counts. Minima of solar activity in tree rings and a south polar ice core have been collated by, {eg}, Bard [{Earth Planet Sci Lett} {150} 1997, 453]; and show striking correspondence with periods when no sunspots were seen, centered at {ca} 900, 1050, 1500, 1700. Pang and Yau [{Eos} {79}, #45, 1998, F149] investigated the Medieval Minimum at 700, using in addition the frequency of auroral sighting7s, a good indicator of solar activity too [Yau, PhD thesis, 1988]; and found that the progression of minima in solar activity goes back to 700. Auroral frequency, C 14 and Be 10 concentrations are also affected by variations in the geomagnetic field. Deposition changes can also influence C 14 and Be 10 abundances. Sunspot counts are thus the only true indicator of solar activity. The Sun's bolometric variations (-0.3% for the Maunder Minimum) can contribute to climatic changes (\\0.5° C for the Little Ice Age)[{eg}, Lean, {GRL} {22}, 1995, 3195]. For times with no thermometer data, temperature can be estimated from, {eg}, Oxygen 18 isotopic abundance in ice cores, which in turn depends on the temperature of the ocean water it evaporated from. We have linked the Medieval Minimum to the cold

Fully Automated Sunspot Detection and Classification Using SDO HMI Imagery in MATLAB

Science.gov (United States)

2014-03-27

initiating the java program scripted to communicate with the SOON telescope used for continual observation of the sun. The SOON telescope is used at...proximity of spots refers to the angular separation between different spots that could make up a group. The area of each sunspot means the total area...degrees and the different magnetic polarities of each spot being considered. For a spot pair that has the same polarity and small angular separation

Time Series Forecasting of the Number of Malaysia Airlines and AirAsia Passengers

Science.gov (United States)

Asrah, N. M.; Nor, M. E.; Rahim, S. N. A.; Leng, W. K.

2018-04-01

The standard practice in forecasting process involved by fitting a model and further analysis on the residuals. If we know the distributional behaviour of the time series data, it can help us to directly analyse the model identification, parameter estimation, and model checking. In this paper, we want to compare the distributional behaviour data from the number of Malaysia Airlines (MAS) and AirAsia passenger’s. From the previous research, the AirAsia passengers are govern by geometric Brownian motion (GBM). The data were normally distributed, stationary and independent. Then, GBM was used to forecast the number of AirAsia passenger’s. The same methods were applied to MAS data and the results then were compared. Unfortunately, the MAS data were not govern by GBM. Then, the standard approach in time series forecasting will be applied to MAS data. From this comparison, we can conclude that the number of AirAsia passengers are always in peak season rather than MAS passengers.

TRANSITION-REGION/CORONAL SIGNATURES AND MAGNETIC SETTING OF SUNSPOT PENUMBRAL JETS: HINODE (SOT/FG), Hi-C, AND SDO/AIA OBSERVATIONS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tiwari, Sanjiv K.; Moore, Ronald L.; Winebarger, Amy R.; Alpert, Shane E.

2016-01-01

Penumbral microjets (PJs) are transient narrow bright features in the chromosphere of sunspot penumbrae, first characterized by Katsukawa et al. using the Ca ii H-line filter on Hinode's Solar Optical Telescope (SOT). It was proposed that the PJs form as a result of reconnection between two magnetic components of penumbrae (spines and interspines), and that they could contribute to the transition region (TR) and coronal heating above sunspot penumbrae. We propose a modified picture of formation of PJs based on recent results on the internal structure of sunspot penumbral filaments. Using data of a sunspot from Hinode/SOT, High Resolution Coronal Imager, and different passbands of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we examine whether PJs have signatures in the TR and corona. We find hardly any discernible signature of normal PJs in any AIA passbands, except for a few of them showing up in the 1600 Å images. However, we discovered exceptionally stronger jets with similar lifetimes but bigger sizes (up to 600 km wide) occurring repeatedly in a few locations in the penumbra, where evidence of patches of opposite-polarity fields in the tails of some penumbral filaments is seen in Stokes-V images. These tail PJs do display signatures in the TR. Whether they have any coronal-temperature plasma is unclear. We infer that none of the PJs, including the tail PJs, directly heat the corona in active regions significantly, but any penumbral jet might drive some coronal heating indirectly via the generation of Alfvén waves and/or braiding of the coronal field

Sunspots and the physics of magnetic flux tubes in the sun

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ballegooijen, A.A. van.

1982-01-01

This thesis refers to the sub-surface structure of the solar magnetic field. Following an introductory chapter, chapter II presents an analysis of spectroscopic observations of a sunspot at infrared wavelengths and models of the temperature stratification in the sunspot atmosphere are derived. The main subject of this thesis concerns the structure of the magnetic field deep down below the stellar surface, near the base of the convective envelope. In Chapter III the stability of toroidal flux tubes to wave-like perturbations is discussed, assuming that the tubes are neutrally buoyant. A model is proposed in which the toroidal flux tubes are neutrally buoyant and located in a stably stratified layer just below the base of the convective zone. On the basis of some simple assumptions for the temperature stratification in this storage layer the author considers in Chapter IV the properties of the vertical flux tubes in the convective zone. The adiabatic flux model cannot satisfactorily be applied to the simplified model of the storage layer, so that the problem of magnetic flux storage is reconsidered in Chapter V. A new model of the temperature stratification at the interface of convective zone and radiative interior of the sun is described. Finally, in Chapter VI, the stability of toroidal flux tubes in a differentially rotating star are discussed. It is demonstrated that for realistic values of the magnetic field strength, rotation has a strong effect on the stability of the toroidal flux tubes. (C.F.)

Sunspots and the physics of magnetic flux tubes. II. Aerodynamic drag

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parker, E.N.

1979-01-01

The aerodynamic drag on a slender flux tube stretched vertically across a convective cell may push the flux tube into the updrafts or into the downdrafts, depending on the density stratification of the convecting fluid and the asymmetry of the fluid motions. The drag is approximately proportional to the local kinetic energy density, so the density stratification weights the drag in favor of the upper layers where the density is low, tending to push the vertical tube into the downdrafts. If, however, the horizontal motions in the convective cell are concentrated toward the bottom of the cell, they may dominate over the upper layers, pushing the tube into the updrafts. In the simple, idealized circumstance of a vertical tube extending across a fluid of uniform density in a convective cell that is symmetric about its midplane, the net aerodynamic drag vanishes in lowest order. The higher order contributions, including the deflection of the tube, then provide a nonvanishing force pushing the tube into a stable equilibrium midway between the updraft and the downdraft.It is pointed out that in the strongly stratified convective zone of the Sun, a downdraft herds flux tubes together into a cluster, while an updraft disperses them. To account for the observed strong cohesion of the cluster of flux tubes that make up a sunspot, we propose a downdraft of the order 2 km s - 1 through the cluster of seprate tubes beneath the sunspot

Inequalities for finite trigonometric sums. An interplay: with some series related to harmonic numbers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Omran Kouba

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract An interplay between the sum of certain series related to harmonic numbers and certain finite trigonometric sums is investigated. This allows us to express the sum of these series in terms of the considered trigonometric sums, and permits us to find sharp inequalities bounding these trigonometric sums. In particular, this answers positively an open problem of Chen (Excursions in Classical Analysis, 2010.

TILT ANGLE AND FOOTPOINT SEPARATION OF SMALL AND LARGE BIPOLAR SUNSPOT REGIONS OBSERVED WITH HMI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McClintock, B. H.; Norton, A. A.

2016-01-01

We investigate bipolar sunspot regions and how tilt angle and footpoint separation vary during emergence and decay. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamic Observatory collects data at a higher cadence than historical records and allows for a detailed analysis of regions over their lifetimes. We sample the umbral tilt angle, footpoint separation, and umbral area of 235 bipolar sunspot regions in Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager—Debrecen Data with an hourly cadence. We use the time when the umbral area peaks as time zero to distinguish between the emergence and decay periods of each region and we limit our analysis of tilt and separation behavior over time to within ±96 hr of time zero. Tilt angle evolution is distinctly different for regions with small (≈30 MSH), midsize (≈50 MSH), and large (≈110 MSH) maximum umbral areas, with 45 and 90 MSH being useful divisions for separating the groups. At the peak umbral area, we determine median tilt angles for small (7.°6), midsize (5.°9), and large (9.°3) regions. Within ±48 hr of the time of peak umbral area, large regions steadily increase in tilt angle, midsize regions are nearly constant, and small regions show evidence of negative tilt during emergence. A period of growth in footpoint separation occurs over a 72-hr period for all of the regions from roughly 40 to 70 Mm. The smallest bipoles (<9 MSH) are outliers in that they do not obey Joy's law and have a much smaller footpoint separation. We confirm the Muñoz-Jaramillo et al. results that the sunspots appear to be two distinct populations

Observations of the longitudinal magnetic field in the transition region and photosphere of a sunspot

Science.gov (United States)

Henze, W., Jr.; Tandberg-Hanssen, E.; Hagyard, M. J.; West, E. A.; Woodgate, B. E.; Shine, R. A.; Beckers, J. M.; Bruner, M.; Hyder, C. L.; West, E. A.

1982-01-01

The Ultraviolet Spectrometer and Polarimeter on the Solar Maximum Mission spacraft has observed for the first time the longitudinal component of the magnetic field by means of the Zeeman effect in the transition region above a sunspot. The data presented here were obtained on three days in one sunspot, have spatial resolutions of 10 arcsec and 3 arcsec, and yield maximum field strengths greater than 1000 G above the umbrae in the spot. The method of analysis, including a line-width calibration feature used during some of the observations, is described in some detail in an appendix; the line width is required for the determination of the longitudinal magnetic field from the observed circular polarization. The transition region data for one day are compared with photospheric magnetograms from the Marshall Space Flight Center. Vertical gradients of the magnetic field are compared from the two sets of data; the maximum gradients of 0.41 to 0.62 G/km occur above the umbra and agree with or are smaller than values observed previously in the photosphere and low chromosphere.

The Frequency-dependent Damping of Slow Magnetoacoustic Waves in a Sunspot Umbral Atmosphere

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prasad, S. Krishna; Jess, D. B. [Astrophysics Research Centre, School of Mathematics and Physics, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, BT7 1NN (United Kingdom); Doorsselaere, T. Van [Centre for mathematical Plasma Astrophysics, Mathematics Department, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200B bus 2400, B-3001 Leuven (Belgium); Verth, G. [School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Sheffield, Hicks Building, Hounsfield Road, Sheffield, S3 7RH (United Kingdom); Morton, R. J. [Department of Mathematics, Physics and Electrical Engineering, Northumbria University, Ellison Building, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 8ST (United Kingdom); Fedun, V. [Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S1 3JD (United Kingdom); Erdélyi, R. [Solar Physics and Space Plasma Research Centre (SP2RC), School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S3 7RH (United Kingdom); Christian, D. J., E-mail: krishna.prasad@qub.ac.uk [Department of Physics and Astronomy, California State University Northridge, Northridge, CA 91330 (United States)

2017-09-20

High spatial and temporal resolution images of a sunspot, obtained simultaneously in multiple optical and UV wavelengths, are employed to study the propagation and damping characteristics of slow magnetoacoustic waves up to transition region heights. Power spectra are generated from intensity oscillations in sunspot umbra, across multiple atmospheric heights, for frequencies up to a few hundred mHz. It is observed that the power spectra display a power-law dependence over the entire frequency range, with a significant enhancement around 5.5 mHz found for the chromospheric channels. The phase difference spectra reveal a cutoff frequency near 3 mHz, up to which the oscillations are evanescent, while those with higher frequencies propagate upward. The power-law index appears to increase with atmospheric height. Also, shorter damping lengths are observed for oscillations with higher frequencies suggesting frequency-dependent damping. Using the relative amplitudes of the 5.5 mHz (3 minute) oscillations, we estimate the energy flux at different heights, which seems to decay gradually from the photosphere, in agreement with recent numerical simulations. Furthermore, a comparison of power spectra across the umbral radius highlights an enhancement of high-frequency waves near the umbral center, which does not seem to be related to magnetic field inclination angle effects.

Numbers, sequences and series

CERN Document Server

Hirst, Keith

1994-01-01

Number and geometry are the foundations upon which mathematics has been built over some 3000 years. This book is concerned with the logical foundations of number systems from integers to complex numbers. The author has chosen to develop the ideas by illustrating the techniques used throughout mathematics rather than using a self-contained logical treatise. The idea of proof has been emphasised, as has the illustration of concepts from a graphical, numerical and algebraic point of view. Having laid the foundations of the number system, the author has then turned to the analysis of infinite proc

Umbral oscillations as a probe of sunspot

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdelatif, T.E.H.

1985-01-01

The interaction of the solar five-minute oscillations with a sunspot is thoroughly explored, both on observational and theoretical grounds. Simple theoretical models are developed in order to understand the observations of umbral oscillations. Observations made at the National Solar Observatory detected both the three-minute and five-minute umbral oscillations at photospheric heights. The three-minute oscillations were found to have a kinetic energy density six times higher in the photosphere than in the chromosphere and to be concentrated in the central part of the umbra, supporting the photospheric resonance theory for the three-minute umbral oscillations. The five-minute oscillations are attenuated in the umbra, which appears to act as a filter in selecting some of the peaks in the power spectrum of five-minute oscillations in the surrounding photosphere. The k-omega power spectrum of the umbral oscillations shows a shift of power to longer wavelengths. Theoretical models of the transmission of acoustic waves into a magnetic region explain both observed effects

31 CFR 351.68 - Are taxpayer identification numbers (TINs) required for registration of book-entry Series EE...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... (TINs) required for registration of book-entry Series EE savings bonds? 351.68 Section 351.68 Money and... TREASURY BUREAU OF THE PUBLIC DEBT OFFERING OF UNITED STATES SAVINGS BONDS, SERIES EE Book-Entry Series EE Savings Bonds § 351.68 Are taxpayer identification numbers (TINs) required for registration of book-entry...

Euler Polynomials, Fourier Series and Zeta Numbers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheufens, Ernst E

2012-01-01

Fourier series for Euler polynomials is used to obtain information about values of the Riemann zeta function for integer arguments greater than one. If the argument is even we recover the well-known exact values, if the argument is odd we find integral representations and rapidly convergent series....

Surge-like Oscillations above Sunspot Light Bridges Driven by Magnetoacoustic Shocks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Jingwen; Tian, Hui; He, Jiansen; Wang, Linghua, E-mail: huitian@pku.edu.cn [School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, 100871 Beijing (China)

2017-03-20

High-resolution observations of the solar chromosphere and transition region often reveal surge-like oscillatory activities above sunspot light bridges (LBs). These oscillations are often interpreted as intermittent plasma jets produced by quasi-periodic magnetic reconnection. We have analyzed the oscillations above an LB in a sunspot using data taken by the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph . The chromospheric 2796 Å images show surge-like activities above the entire LB at any time, forming an oscillating wall. Within the wall we often see that the core of the Mg ii k 2796.35 Å line first experiences a large blueshift, and then gradually decreases to zero shift before increasing to a redshift of comparable magnitude. Such a behavior suggests that the oscillations are highly nonlinear and likely related to shocks. In the 1400 Å passband, which samples emission mainly from the Si iv ion, the most prominent feature is a bright oscillatory front ahead of the surges. We find a positive correlation between the acceleration and maximum velocity of the moving front, which is consistent with numerical simulations of upward propagating slow-mode shock waves. The Si iv 1402.77 Å line profile is generally enhanced and broadened in the bright front, which might be caused by turbulence generated through compression or by the shocks. These results, together with the fact that the oscillation period stays almost unchanged over a long duration, lead us to propose that the surge-like oscillations above LBs are caused by shocked p-mode waves leaked from the underlying photosphere.

REGULARITY OF THE NORTH–SOUTH ASYMMETRY OF SOLAR ACTIVITY: REVISITED

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, J.; Feng, W.

2015-01-01

Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices (ESAI) extended the Greenwich series of sunspot area from the year 1874 back to 1821. The ESAI's yearly sunspot area in the northern and southern hemispheres from 1821 to 2013 is utilized to investigate characteristics of the north–south hemispherical asymmetry of sunspot activity. Periodical behavior of about 12 solar cycles is also confirmed from the ESAI data set to exist in dominant hemispheres, linear regression lines of yearly asymmetry values, and cumulative counts of yearly sunspot areas in the hemispheres for solar cycles. The period is also inferred to appear in both the cumulative difference in the yearly sunspot areas in the hemispheres over the entire time interval and in its statistical Student's t-test. The hemispherical bias of sunspot activity should be regarded as an impossible stochastic phenomenon over a long time period

Determination of the Alfvén Speed and Plasma-beta Using the Seismology of Sunspot Umbra

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cho, I.-H.; Moon, Y.-J.; Nakariakov, V. M.; Park, J.; Choi, S. [Department of Astronomy and Space Science, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 446-701 (Korea, Republic of); Cho, K.-S.; Bong, S.-C.; Baek, J.-H.; Kim, Y.-H.; Lee, J., E-mail: ihjo@khu.ac.kr [Space Science Division, Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon 305-348 (Korea, Republic of)

2017-03-01

For 478 centrally located sunspots observed in the optical continuum with Solar Dynamics Observatory /Helioseismic Magnetic Imager, we perform seismological diagnostics of the physical parameters of umbral photospheres. The new technique is based on the theory of slow magnetoacoustic waves in a non-isothermally stratified photosphere with a uniform vertical magnetic field. We construct a map of the weighted frequency of three-minute oscillations inside the umbra and use it for the estimation of the Alfvén speed, plasma-beta, and mass density within the umbra. We find the umbral mean Alfvén speed ranges between 10.5 and 7.5 km s{sup −1} and is negatively correlated with magnetic field strength. The umbral mean plasma-beta is found to range approximately between 0.65 and 1.15 and does not vary significantly from pores to mature sunspots. The mean density ranges between (1–6) × 10{sup −4} kg m{sup −3} and shows a strong positive correlation with magnetic field strength.

NARROW-LINE-WIDTH UV BURSTS IN THE TRANSITION REGION ABOVE SUNSPOTS OBSERVED BY IRIS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hou, Zhenyong; Huang, Zhenghua; Xia, Lidong; Li, Bo; Madjarska, Maria S.; Fu, Hui; Mou, Chaozhou; Xie, Haixia, E-mail: z.huang@sdu.edu.cn, E-mail: xld@sdu.edu.cn [Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Optical Astronomy and Solar-Terrestrial Environment, Institute of Space Sciences, Shandong University, Weihai, 264209 Shandong (China)

2016-10-01

Various small-scale structures abound in the solar atmosphere above active regions, playing an important role in the dynamics and evolution therein. We report on a new class of small-scale transition region structures in active regions, characterized by strong emissions but extremely narrow Si iv line profiles as found in observations taken with the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS). Tentatively named as narrow-line-width UV bursts (NUBs), these structures are located above sunspots and comprise one or multiple compact bright cores at sub-arcsecond scales. We found six NUBs in two data sets (a raster and a sit-and-stare data set). Among these, four events are short-lived with a duration of ∼10 minutes, while two last for more than 36 minutes. All NUBs have Doppler shifts of 15–18 km s{sup −1}, while the NUB found in sit-and-stare data possesses an additional component at ∼50 km s{sup −1} found only in the C ii and Mg ii lines. Given that these events are found to play a role in the local dynamics, it is important to further investigate the physical mechanisms that generate these phenomena and their role in the mass transport in sunspots.

THE MYSTERIOUS CASE OF THE SOLAR ARGON ABUNDANCE NEAR SUNSPOTS IN FLARES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doschek, G. A.; Warren, H. P.

2016-01-01

Recently we discussed an enhancement of the abundance of Ar xiv relative to Ca xiv near a sunspot during a flare, observed in spectra recorded by the Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) on the Hinode spacecraft. The observed Ar xiv/Ca xiv ratio yields an argon/calcium abundance ratio seven times greater than expected from the photospheric abundance. Such a large abundance anomaly is unprecedented in the solar atmosphere. We interpreted this result as being due to an inverse first ionization potential (FIP) effect. In the published work, two lines of Ar xiv were observed, and one line was tentatively identified as an Ar xi line. In this paper, we report observing a similar enhancement in a full-CCD EIS flare spectrum in 13 argon lines that lie within the EIS wavelength ranges. The observed lines include two Ar xi lines, four Ar xiii lines, six Ar xiv lines, and one Ar xv line. The enhancement is far less than reported in Doschek et al. but exhibits similar morphology. The argon abundance is close to a photospheric abundance in the enhanced area, and the abundance could be photospheric. This enhancement occurs in association with a sunspot in a small area only a few arcseconds (1″ = about 700 km) in size. There is no enhancement effect observed in the normally high-FIP sulfur and oxygen line ratios relative to lines of low-FIP elements available to EIS. Calculations of path lengths in the strongest enhanced area in Doschek et al. indicate a depletion of low-FIP elements.

SOLAR VARIABILITY FROM 240 TO 1750 nm IN TERMS OF FACULAE BRIGHTENING AND SUNSPOT DARKENING FROM SCIAMACHY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pagaran, J.; Weber, M.; Burrows, J.

2009-01-01

The change of spectral decomposition of the total radiative output on various timescales of solar magnetic activity is of large interest to terrestrial and solar-stellar atmosphere studies. Starting in 2002, SCIAMACHY was the first satellite instrument to observe daily solar spectral irradiance (SSI) continuously from 230 nm (UV) to 1750 nm (near-infrared; near-IR). In order to address the question of how much UV, visible (vis), and IR spectral regions change on 27 day and 11 year timescales, we parameterize short-term SSI variations in terms of faculae brightening (Mg II index) and sunspot darkening (photometric sunspot index) proxies. Although spectral variations above 300 nm are below 1% and, therefore, well below the accuracy of absolute radiometric calibration, relative accuracy for short-term changes is shown to be in the per mill range. This enables us to derive short-term spectral irradiance variations from the UV to the near-IR. During Halloween solar storm in 2003 with a record high sunspot area, we observe a reduction of 0.3% in the near-IR to 0.5% in the vis and near-UV. This is consistent with a 0.4% reduction in total solar irradiance (TSI). Over an entire 11 year solar cycle, SSI variability covering simultaneously the UV, vis, and IR spectral regions have not been directly observed so far. Using variations of solar proxies over solar cycle 23, solar cycle spectral variations have been estimated using scaling factors that best matched short-term variations of SCIAMACHY. In the 300-400 nm region, which strongly contributes to TSI solar cycle change, a contribution of 34% is derived from SCIAMACHY observations, which is lower than the reported values from SUSIM satellite data and the empirical SATIRE model. The total UV contribution (below 400 nm) to TSI solar cycle variations is estimated to be 55%.

CORRELATION BETWEEN THE 22-YEAR SOLAR MAGNETIC CYCLE AND THE 22-YEAR QUASICYCLE IN THE EARTH'S ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qu Weizheng; Zhao Jinping; Huang Fei; Deng Shenggui, E-mail: quweizhe@ouc.edu.cn [College of Environment Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100 (China)

2012-07-15

According to the variation pattern of the solar magnetic field polarity and its relation to the relative sunspot number, we established the time series of the sunspot magnetic field polarity index and analyzed the strength and polarity cycle characteristics of the solar magnetic field. The analysis showed the existence of a cycle with about a 22-year periodicity in the strength and polarity of the solar magnetic field, which proved the Hale proposition that the 11-year sunspot cycle is one-half of the 22-year solar magnetic cycle. By analyzing the atmospheric temperature field, we found that the troposphere and the stratosphere in the middle latitude of both the northern and southern hemispheres exhibited a common 22-year quasicycle in the atmospheric temperature, which is believed to be attributable to the 22-year solar magnetic cycle.

CORRELATION BETWEEN THE 22-YEAR SOLAR MAGNETIC CYCLE AND THE 22-YEAR QUASICYCLE IN THE EARTH'S ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qu Weizheng; Zhao Jinping; Huang Fei; Deng Shenggui

2012-01-01

According to the variation pattern of the solar magnetic field polarity and its relation to the relative sunspot number, we established the time series of the sunspot magnetic field polarity index and analyzed the strength and polarity cycle characteristics of the solar magnetic field. The analysis showed the existence of a cycle with about a 22-year periodicity in the strength and polarity of the solar magnetic field, which proved the Hale proposition that the 11-year sunspot cycle is one-half of the 22-year solar magnetic cycle. By analyzing the atmospheric temperature field, we found that the troposphere and the stratosphere in the middle latitude of both the northern and southern hemispheres exhibited a common 22-year quasicycle in the atmospheric temperature, which is believed to be attributable to the 22-year solar magnetic cycle.

Solar irridiance variations and solar activity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Willson, R.C.

1982-01-01

A mean value for the 1 AU total solar irradiance of 1368.2 W/m 2 and a downward trend of 0.05% per year were derived from measurements by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) experiment on the Solar Maximum Mission during 1980. Distinct temporary solar irradiance decreases associated with solar activity maxima were observed with a series of nine dips from April to October recurring at fairly regular intervals averaging 24 days. The decreases correlate inversely with sunspot area, 2800-MHz flux, and Zurich sunspot number. Dominant periods common to the irradiance and sunspot area power spectra link the irradiance decreases to sunspot flux deficit in solar active regions. Evidence of significant total irradiance modulation by facular flux excess is cited. A persistent radiative cycle of active regions consistent with the ACRIM irradiance results and the morphology of solar active regions was found. The pattern of regularly recurrent active region maxima between April and October suggests an asymmetry in solar activity generation during this period

Oscillations in sunspot umbras due to trapped Alfven waves excited by overstability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uchida, Yutaka; Sakurai, Takashi.

1975-01-01

Oscillations observed in sunspot umbras are interpreted as a vertical motion in the atmosphere induced by a standing Alfven wave trapped in the region between the overstable layer under the photosphere and the chromosphere-corona transition layer. The Alfven wave motion is considered to be excited by the overstable convection occurring at the bottom of the abovementioned oscillating layer, and waves with special frequencies are selected as eigen-mode waves standing in the ''cavity,'' while other waves which are out of phase with themselves after reflections will disappear. It is shown by solving the eigen-value problem that the fundamental eigen frequency falls in a range around 0.04 rad s -1 (corresponding to 140-180 s) for the condition in the umbra of a typical spot, and also that the eigen frequencies do not depend greatly on the circumstantial physical or geometric parameters of the model atmosphere, such as the temperature in the layer, or the height of the transition layer, etc. The eigen frequencies, however, depend on the Alfven velocity at the base of the oscillating layer (or at the top of the overstable layer), but the latter quantity, which represents the stiffness of the magnetic tube of force against the overturning motion, takes roughly a common value for different sunspots according to SAVAGE's (1969) stability analysis of the umbral atmosphere against thermal convection, and thus gives a comparatively narrow range of resonant frequencies. In addition to the selection mechanism for oscillations of 140-180-s period, some other aspects of the oscillation, such as the relation to the running penumbral waves, are discussed. (auth.)

Trend Estimation and Regression Analysis in Climatological Time Series: An Application of Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter.

Science.gov (United States)

Visser, H.; Molenaar, J.

1995-05-01

The detection of trends in climatological data has become central to the discussion on climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. To prove detection, a method is needed (i) to make inferences on significant rises or declines in trends, (ii) to take into account natural variability in climate series, and (iii) to compare output from GCMs with the trends in observed climate data. To meet these requirements, flexible mathematical tools are needed. A structural time series model is proposed with which a stochastic trend, a deterministic trend, and regression coefficients can be estimated simultaneously. The stochastic trend component is described using the class of ARIMA models. The regression component is assumed to be linear. However, the regression coefficients corresponding with the explanatory variables may be time dependent to validate this assumption. The mathematical technique used to estimate this trend-regression model is the Kaiman filter. The main features of the filter are discussed.Examples of trend estimation are given using annual mean temperatures at a single station in the Netherlands (1706-1990) and annual mean temperatures at Northern Hemisphere land stations (1851-1990). The inclusion of explanatory variables is shown by regressing the latter temperature series on four variables: Southern Oscillation index (SOI), volcanic dust index (VDI), sunspot numbers (SSN), and a simulated temperature signal, induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHG). In all analyses, the influence of SSN on global temperatures is found to be negligible. The correlations between temperatures and SOI and VDI appear to be negative. For SOI, this correlation is significant, but for VDI it is not, probably because of a lack of volcanic eruptions during the sample period. The relation between temperatures and GHG is positive, which is in agreement with the hypothesis of a warming climate because of increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The prediction performance of

Summation of series

CERN Document Server

Jolley, LB W

2004-01-01

Over 1,100 common series, all grouped for easy reference. Arranged by category, these series include arithmetical and geometrical progressions, powers and products of natural numbers, figurate and polygonal numbers, inverse natural numbers, exponential and logarithmic series, binomials, simple inverse products, factorials, trigonometrical and hyperbolic expansions, and additional series. 1961 edition.

Solar wind and coronal structure near sunspot minimum: Pioneer and SMM observations from 1985-1987

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mihalov, J.D.; Barnes, A.; Hundhausen, A.J.; Smith, E.J.

1990-01-01

The solar wind speeds observed in the outer heliosphere (20 to 40 AU heliocentric distance, approximately) by Pioneers 10 an 11, and at a heliocentric distance of 0.7 AU by the Pioneer Venus spacecraft, reveal a complex set of changes in the years near the recent sunspot minimum, 1985-1987. The pattern of recurrent solar wind streams, the long-term average speed, and the sector polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field all changed in a manner suggesting both a temporal variation, and a changing dependence on heliographic latitude. Coronal observations made from the Solar Maximum Mission spacecraft during the same epoch show a systematic variation in coronal structure and (by implication) the magnetic structure imposed on the expanding solar wind. These observations suggest interpretation of the solar wind speed variations in terms of the familiar model where the speed increases with distance from a nearly flat interplanetary current sheet (or with heliomagnetic latitude), and where this current sheet becomes aligned with the solar equatorial plane as sunspot minimum approaches, but deviates rapidly from that orientation after minimum. The authors confirm here that this basic organization of the solar wind speed persists in the outer heliosphere with an orientation of the neutral sheet consistent with that inferred at a heliocentric distance of a few solar radii, from the coronal observations

Vegetation series, curve numbers and soil water availabilities. Application to forest restoration in dry lands; Series de vegetacion, numeros de curva y disponibilidades hidricas. Aplicacion a la restauracion forestal en zonas secas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mongil, J.; Martin, L.; Navarro, J.; Martinez de Azagra, A.

2012-11-01

Vegetation series related with plants succession in the ecosystems are associated to hydrologic properties of the land such as runoff curve numbers, runoff thresholds and soil water availability. The most evolved vegetation stages in a successional series usually present better soil and hydrologic conditions. In this way curve numbers decrease meanwhile runoff thresholds increase, and therefore water availability grows in the ecosystem. These postulates are analyzed in this paper using field data (7 sampling points) and a hydrologic model (MODIPE). One vegetation series (specifically: Guadarramico-Iberica (supra-meso) holm oak siliceous series) and its successional stages have been chosen to find out its associated curve numbers and ecosystem water availability using MODIPE model. The objective is to apply these items to hydrologic planning and forest restoration in dry lands, where water floods and water scarcity control urban and ecosystem development and restoration measures. (Author) 37 refs.

Changed Relation between Solar 10.7-cm Radio Flux and some ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The time series of monthly average values of sunspot numbers SSN, 10.7 cm flux ... This radio emission comes from the higher part of the chromosphere and .... work elements on the solar surface on one hand and spots on the other hand ... size, their magnetic fields were less composite and characterized by the greater life-.

Hacia la predicción del Número R de Wolf de manchas solares utilizando Redes Neuronales con retardos temporales

Science.gov (United States)

Francile, C.; Luoni, M. L.

We present a prediction of the time series of the Wolf number R of sunspots using "time lagged feed forward neural networks". We use two types of networks: the focused and distributed ones which were trained with the back propagation of errors algorithm and the temporal back propagation algorithm respectively. As inputs to neural networks we use the time series of the number R averaged annually and monthly with the method IR5. As data sets for training and test we choose certain intervals of the time series similar to other works, in order to compare the results. Finally we discuss the topology of the networks used, the number of delays used, the number of neurons per layer, the number of hidden layers and the results in the prediction of the series between one and six steps ahead. FULL TEXT IN SPANISH

Breakdown of the law of large numbers in Josephson junction series arrays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dominguez, D.; Cerdeira, H.A.

1994-01-01

We study underdamped Josephson junction series arrays that are globally coupled through a resistive shunting load and driven by an rf bias current. We find that they can be an experimental realization of many phenomena currently studied in globally coupled logistic maps. We find coherent, ordered, partially ordered and turbulent phases in the IV characteristics of the array. The ordered phase corresponds to giant Shapiro steps. In the turbulent phase there is a saturation of the broad band noise for a large number of junctions. This corresponds to a break down of the law of large numbers as seen in the globally coupled maps. Coexisting with this, we find an emergence of novel pseudo-steps in the IV characteristics. This effect can be experimentally distinguished from the Shapiro steps, which do not have broad band noise emission. (author). 21 refs, 5 figs

Normal and counter Evershed flows in the photospheric penumbra of a sunspot SPINOR 2D inversions of Hinode-SOT/SP observations

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Siu-Tapia, A.; Lagg, A.; Solanki, S.K.; van Noort, M.; Jurčák, Jan

2017-01-01

Roč. 607, November (2017), A36/1-A36/17 E-ISSN 1432-0746 Institutional support: RVO:67985815 Keywords : sunspots * photosphere * magnetic fields Subject RIV: BN - Astronomy, Celestial Mechanics, Astrophysics OBOR OECD: Astronomy (including astrophysics,space science) Impact factor: 5.014, year: 2016

Bernoulli Polynomials, Fourier Series and Zeta Numbers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheufens, Ernst E

2013-01-01

Fourier series for Bernoulli polynomials are used to obtain information about values of the Riemann zeta function for integer arguments greater than one. If the argument is even we recover the well-known exact values, if the argument is odd we find integral representations and rapidly convergent...

On the Theory of Sunspots Proposed by Signor Kirchoff

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Secchi A.

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Eileen Reeves (Department of Comparative Literature, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, 08544 and Mary Posani (Department of French and Italian, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, 43221 provide a translation of Father Pietro Angelo Secchi’s classic work “ Secchi A. Sulla Teoria Delle Macchie Solari: Proposta dal sig. Kirchoff” as it appeared in Bullettino Meteorologico dell’ Osservatorio del Collegio Romano , 31 January 1864, v.3(4, 1–4. This was the first treatise to propose a partic- ulate photosphere floating on the gaseous body of the Sun. The idea would dominate astrophysical thought for the next 50 years. Secchi appears to have drafted the article, as a response to Gustav Kirchhoff’s proposal, echoing early Galilean ideas, that sunspots represented clouds which floated above the photosphere. Other than presenting a new solar model, noteworthy aspects of this work include Secchi’s appropriate insistence that materials do not emit the same light at the same temperature and his gentle rebuke of Kirchhoff relative to commenting on questions of astronomy.

Linking the Negative Binomial and Logarithmic Series Distributions via their Associated Series

OpenAIRE

SADINLE, MAURICIO

2008-01-01

The negative binomial distribution is associated to the series obtained by taking derivatives of the logarithmic series. Conversely, the logarithmic series distribution is associated to the series found by integrating the series associated to the negative binomial distribution. The parameter of the number of failures of the negative binomial distribution is the number of derivatives needed to obtain the negative binomial series from the logarithmic series. The reasoning in this article could ...

Break down of the law of large numbers in Josephson junction series arrays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dominguez, D.; Cerdeira, H.A.

1995-01-01

We study underdamped Josephson junction series arrays that are globally coupled through a resistive shunting load and driven by an rf bias current. We find that they can be an experimental realization of many phenomena currently studied in globally coupled logistic maps. We find coherent, ordered, partially ordered and turbulent phases in the IV characteristics of the array. The ordered phase corresponds to giant Shapiro steps. In the turbulent phase there is a saturation of the broad band noise for a large number of junctions. This corresponds to a break down of the law of large numbers as seen in globally coupled maps. Coexisting with this, we find an emergence of novel pseudo-steps in the IV characteristics. This effect can be experimentally distinguished from the true Shapiro steps, which do not have broad band noise emission. (author). 21 refs, 5 figs

Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy | Indian Academy of Sciences

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

2016-01-27

Jan 27, 2016 ... The records of sunspot number, sunspot areas and sunspot locations gathered over the centuries by various observatories are reanalysed with the aim of finding as yet undiscovered connections between the different parameters of the sunspot cycle and the butterfly diagram. Preliminary results of such ...

Sudden transitions and grand variations in the solar dynamo, past and future☆

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

De Jager Cornelis

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The solar dynamo is the exotic dance of the sun’s two major magnetic field components, the poloidal and the toroidal, interacting in anti-phase. On the basis of new data on the geomagnetic aa index, we improve our previous forecast of the properties of the current Schwabe cycle #24. Its maximum will occur in 2013.5 and the maximum sunspot number Rmax will then be 62 ± 12, which is within the bounds of our earlier forecasts. The subsequent analysis, based on a phase diagram, which is a diagram showing the relation between maximum sunspot numbers and minimum geomagnetic aa index values leads to the conclusion that a new Grand Episode in solar activity has started in 2008. From the study of the natural oscillations in the sunspot number time series, as found by an analysis based on suitable wavelet base functions, we predict that this Grand Episode will be of the Regular Oscillations type, which is the kind of oscillations that also occurred between 1724 and 1924. Previous expectations of a Grand (Maunder-type Minimum of solar activity cannot be supported. We stress the significance of the Hallstatt periodicity for determining the character of the forthcoming Grand Episodes. No Grand Minimum is expected to occur during the millennium that has just started.

MAXIMUM CORONAL MASS EJECTION SPEED AS AN INDICATOR OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITIES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V. B.; Abramenko, V.; Goode, P. R.; Gopalswamy, N.; Ozguc, A.; Rozelot, J. P.

2011-01-01

We investigate the relationship between the monthly averaged maximal speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), international sunspot number (ISSN), and the geomagnetic Dst and Ap indices covering the 1996-2008 time interval (solar cycle 23). Our new findings are as follows. (1) There is a noteworthy relationship between monthly averaged maximum CME speeds and sunspot numbers, Ap and Dst indices. Various peculiarities in the monthly Dst index are correlated better with the fine structures in the CME speed profile than that in the ISSN data. (2) Unlike the sunspot numbers, the CME speed index does not exhibit a double peak maximum. Instead, the CME speed profile peaks during the declining phase of solar cycle 23. Similar to the Ap index, both CME speed and the Dst indices lag behind the sunspot numbers by several months. (3) The CME number shows a double peak similar to that seen in the sunspot numbers. The CME occurrence rate remained very high even near the minimum of the solar cycle 23, when both the sunspot number and the CME average maximum speed were reaching their minimum values. (4) A well-defined peak of the Ap index between 2002 May and 2004 August was co-temporal with the excess of the mid-latitude coronal holes during solar cycle 23. The above findings suggest that the CME speed index may be a useful indicator of both solar and geomagnetic activities. It may have advantages over the sunspot numbers, because it better reflects the intensity of Earth-directed solar eruptions.

The Relative Phase Asynchronization between Sunspot Numbers ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

of Sciences, P. O. Box 110, 650011 Kunming, People's Republic of China. ... by studying the North–South asymmetry in the predominant rotation periods of ... earth, the polar faculae counts show strong annual variation, and the polar region is.

INTERFERENCE OF THE RUNNING WAVES AT LIGHT BRIDGES OF A SUNSPOT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Su, J. T.; Priya, T. G.; Yu, S. J.; Zhang, M. [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China); Ji, K. F. [Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093 (China); Banerjee, D. [Indian Institute of Astrophysics, Koramangala Bangalore 560034 (India); Cao, W. D. [Big Bear Solar Observatory, 40386 North Shore Lane, Big Bear City, CA 92314 (United States); Zhao, J. S.; Ji, H. S., E-mail: jt@bao.ac.cn [Purple Mountain Observatory, CAS, Nanjing 210008 (China)

2016-01-01

The observations of chromospheric oscillations of two umbral light bridges (LBs) within a sunspot from NOAA Active Region 12127 are presented. It was found that the running umbral waves with periods of 2.2–2.6 minutes underwent very fast damping before approaching umbral boundaries, while those with higher periods (>2.6 minutes) could propagate outside umbrae. On two sides of each LB adjacent to umbrae, the cross-wavelet spectra displayed that the oscillations on them had a common significant power region with dominant frequencies of 2–6 minutes and phase differences of ∼90°. A counterstream of two running umbral waves in the 2–6 minute frequency range propagated toward the LBs, where they encountered each other and gave rise to constructive or even destructive interference on the LBs. In addition, the velocity and density perturbations on the LBs were found in opposite phases suggesting that the perturbations were caused by the downward propagating waves.

Stokes profile analysis and vector magnetic fields. III. Extended temperature minima of sunspot umbrae as inferred from Stokes profiles of Mg I 4571 A

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lites, B.W.; Skumanich, A.; Rees, D.E.; Murphy, G.A.; Carlsson, M.; Sydney Univ., Australia; Oslo Universitetet, Norway)

1987-01-01

Observed Stokes profiles of Mg I 4571 A are analyzed as a diagnostic of the magnetic field and thermal structure at the temperature minimum of sunspot umbrae. Multilevel non-LTE transfer calculations of the Mg I-II-III excitation and ionization balance in model umbral atmospheres show: (1) Mg I to be far less ionized in sunspot umbrae than in the quiet sun, leading to greatly enhanced opacity in 4571 A, and (2) LTE excitation of 4571 A. Existing umbral models predict emission cores of the Stokes I profile due to the chromospheric temperature rise. This feature is not present in observed umbral profiles. Moreover, such an emission reversal causes similar anomalous features in the Stokes Q, U, V profiles, which are also not observed. Umbral atmospheres with extended temperature minima are suggested. Implications for chromospheric heating mechanisms and the utility of this line for solar vector magnetic field measurements are discussed. 35 references

Permutation entropy analysis of financial time series based on Hill's diversity number

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yali; Shang, Pengjian

2017-12-01

In this paper the permutation entropy based on Hill's diversity number (Nn,r) is introduced as a new way to assess the complexity of a complex dynamical system such as stock market. We test the performance of this method with simulated data. Results show that Nn,r with appropriate parameters is more sensitive to the change of system and describes the trends of complex systems clearly. In addition, we research the stock closing price series from different data that consist of six indices: three US stock indices and three Chinese stock indices during different periods, Nn,r can quantify the changes of complexity for stock market data. Moreover, we get richer information from Nn,r, and obtain some properties about the differences between the US and Chinese stock indices.

The Extreme Solar Activity during October–November 2003 K. M. ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

between occurrence of the abnormal activities of big sunspot groups that ... better statistics, we add the data of the sunspot positional measurements obtained from the ... Ai are the area values of the sunspot group for i number of observations.

The Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index in Relation to Sunspot Number, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index, the Mauna Loa Atmospheric Concentration of CO2, and Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Robert M.

2013-01-01

Global warming/climate change has been a subject of scientific interest since the early 19th century. In particular, increases in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) have long been thought to account for Earth's increased warming, although the lack of a dependable set of observational data was apparent as late as the mid 1950s. However, beginning in the late 1950s, being associated with the International Geophysical Year, the opportunity arose to begin accurate continuous monitoring of the Earth's atmospheric concentration of CO2. Consequently, it is now well established that the atmospheric concentration of CO2, while varying seasonally within any particular year, has steadily increased over time. Associated with this rising trend in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is a rising trend in the surface-air and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). This Technical Publication (TP) examines the statistical relationships between 10-year moving averages (10-yma) of the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI), sunspot number (SSN), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, and the Mauna Loa CO2 (MLCO2) index for the common interval 1964-2006, where the 10-yma values are used to indicate trends in the data. Scatter plots using the 10-yma values between GLOTI and each of the other parameters are determined, both as single-variate and multivariate fits. Scatter plots are also determined for MLCO2 using single-variate and bivariate (BV) fits, based on the GLOTI alone and the GLOTI in combination with the AMO index. On the basis of the inferred preferential fits for MLCO2, estimates for MLCO2 are determined for the interval 1885-1964, thereby yielding an estimate of the preindustrial level of atmospheric concentration of CO2. Lastly, 10-yma values of MLCO2 are compared against 10-yma estimates of the total carbon emissions (TCE) to determine the likelihood that manmade sources of carbon emissions are indeed responsible for the recent warming now

Internal and External Reconnection Series Homologous Solar Flares

Science.gov (United States)

Sterling, Alphonse C.; Moore, Ronald L.

2001-01-01

Using data from the extreme ultraviolet imaging telescope (EIT) on SOHO and the soft X-ray telescope (SXT) on Yohkoh, we examine a series of morphologically homologous solar flares occurring in National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) active region 8210 over May 1-2, 1998. An emerging flux region (EFR) impacted against a sunspot to the west and next to a coronal hole to the east is the source of the repeated flaring. An SXT sigmoid parallels the EFR's neutral line at the site of the initial flaring in soft X rays. In EIT each flaring episode begins with the formation of a crinkle pattern external to the EFR. These EIT crinkles move out from, and then in toward, the EFR with velocities approx. 20 km/ s. A shrinking and expansion of the width of the coronal hole coincides with the crinkle activity, and generation and evolution of a postflare loop system begins near the time of crinkle formation. Using a schematic based on magnetograms of the region, we suggest that these observations are consistent with the standard reconnection-based model for solar eruptions but are modified by the presence of the additional magnetic fields of the sunspot and coronal hole. In the schematic, internal reconnection begins inside of the EFR-associated fields, unleashing a flare, postflare loops, and a coronal mass ejection (CME). External reconnection, first occurring between the escaping CME and the coronal hole field and second occurring between fields formed as a result of the first external reconnection, results in the EIT crinkles and changes in the coronal hole boundary. By the end of the second external reconnection, the initial setup is reinstated; thus the sequence can repeat, resulting in morphologically homologous eruptions. Our inferred magnetic topology is similar to that suggested in the "breakout model" of eruptions although we cannot determine if our eruptions are released primarily by the breakout mechanism (external reconnection) or, alternatively

Does solar activity affect human happiness?

Science.gov (United States)

Kristoufek, Ladislav

2018-03-01

We investigate the direct influence of solar activity (represented by sunspot numbers) on human happiness (represented by the Twitter-based Happiness Index). We construct four models controlling for various statistical and dynamic effects of the analyzed series. The final model gives promising results. First, there is a statistically significant negative influence of solar activity on happiness which holds even after controlling for the other factors. Second, the final model, which is still rather simple, explains around 75% of variance of the Happiness Index. Third, our control variables contribute significantly as well: happiness is higher in no sunspots days, happiness is strongly persistent, there are strong intra-week cycles and happiness peaks during holidays. Our results strongly contribute to the topical literature and they provide evidence of unique utility of the online data.

Solar Spectral Irradiance Reconstruction over 9 Millennia from a Composite 14C and 10Be Series

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, C. J.; Usoskin, I. G.; Krivova, N.; Kovaltsov, G.; Solanki, S. K.

2017-12-01

The Sun is the main external energy source to the Earth and thus the knowledge of solar variability on different time scales is important for understanding the solar influence on the terrestrial atmosphere and climate. The overall energy input and its spectral distribution are described by the total (TSI) and spectral (SSI) solar irradiance, respectively. Direct measurements of the solar irradiance provide information on solar variability on the decadal and shorter time scales, while the sunspot number record covers four centuries. On yet longer time scales only indirect proxies can be used, such as the concentrations of the cosmogenic isotopes 10Be and 14C in terrestrial archives. These isotopes are produced in the terrestrial atmosphere by impinging cosmic rays, whose flux is modulated by solar activity. Therefore the isotope data retrieved from various natural archives around the globe show a very high degree of similarity reflecting changes in the solar activity. Nevertheless, significant short-term deviations can be observed due to the different geochemical production processes and local climatic conditions. We will present the newest TSI/SSI reconstruction over the last 9000 years based on a new consistent composite multi-isotope proxy series. The solar irradiance reconstruction reveals the global and robust pattern of solar variability in the past.

EVIDENCE FOR A TRANSITION REGION RESPONSE TO PENUMBRAL MICROJETS IN SUNSPOTS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vissers, G. J. M.; Rouppe van der Voort, L. H. M.; Carlsson, M.

2015-01-01

Penumbral microjets (PMJs) are short-lived, fine-structured, and bright jets that are generally observed in chromospheric imaging of the penumbra of sunspots. Here we investigate their potential transition region signature by combining observations with the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope in the Ca ii H and Ca ii 8542 Å lines with ultraviolet imaging and spectroscopy obtained with the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS), which includes the C ii 1334/1335 Å, Si iv 1394/1403 Å, and Mg ii h and k 2803/2796 Å lines. We find a clear corresponding signal in the IRIS Mg ii k, C ii, and Si iv slit-jaw images, typically offset spatially from the Ca ii signature in the direction along the jets: from base to top, the PMJs are predominantly visible in Ca ii, Mg ii k, and C ii/Si iv, suggesting progressive heating to transition region temperatures along the jet extent. Hence, these results support the suggestion from earlier studies that PMJs may heat to transition region temperatures

STUDY OF RAPID FORMATION OF A δ SUNSPOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2012 JULY 2 C7.4 FLARE USING HIGH-RESOLUTION OBSERVATIONS OF THE NEW SOLAR TELESCOPE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Haimin; Liu Chang; Wang Shuo; Deng Na; Xu Yan; Jing Ju; Cao Wenda

2013-01-01

Rapid, irreversible changes of magnetic topology and sunspot structure associated with flares have been systematically observed in recent years. The most striking features include the increase of the horizontal field at the polarity inversion line (PIL) and the co-spatial penumbral darkening. A likely explanation of the above phenomenon is the back reaction to the coronal restructuring after eruptions: a coronal mass ejection carries the upward momentum while the downward momentum compresses the field lines near the PIL. Previous studies could only use low-resolution (above 1'') magnetograms and white-light images. Therefore, the changes are mostly observed for X-class flares. Taking advantage of the 0.''1 spatial resolution and 15 s temporal cadence of the New Solar Telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory, we report in detail the rapid formation of sunspot penumbra at the PIL associated with the C7.4 flare on 2012 July 2. It is unambiguously shown that the solar granulation pattern evolves to an alternating dark and bright fibril structure, the typical pattern of penumbra. Interestingly, the appearance of such a penumbra creates a new δ sunspot. The penumbral formation is also accompanied by the enhancement of the horizontal field observed using vector magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager. We explain our observations as being due to the eruption of a flux rope following magnetic cancellation at the PIL. Subsequently, the re-closed arcade fields are pushed down toward the surface to form the new penumbra. NLFFF extrapolation clearly shows both the flux rope close to the surface and the overlying fields

Vector magnetic fields in sunspots. I - Stokes profile analysis using the Marshall Space Flight Center magnetograph

Science.gov (United States)

Balasubramaniam, K. S.; West, E. A.

1991-01-01

The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) vector magnetograph is a tunable filter magnetograph with a bandpass of 125 mA. Results are presented of the inversion of Stokes polarization profiles observed with the MSFC vector magnetograph centered on a sunspot to recover the vector magnetic field parameters and thermodynamic parameters of the spectral line forming region using the Fe I 5250.2 A spectral line using a nonlinear least-squares fitting technique. As a preliminary investigation, it is also shown that the recovered thermodynamic parameters could be better understood if the fitted parameters like Doppler width, opacity ratio, and damping constant were broken down into more basic quantities like temperature, microturbulent velocity, or density parameter.

Time-Series Approaches for Forecasting the Number of Hospital Daily Discharged Inpatients.

Science.gov (United States)

Ting Zhu; Li Luo; Xinli Zhang; Yingkang Shi; Wenwu Shen

2017-03-01

For hospitals where decisions regarding acceptable rates of elective admissions are made in advance based on expected available bed capacity and emergency requests, accurate predictions of inpatient bed capacity are especially useful for capacity reservation purposes. As given, the remaining unoccupied beds at the end of each day, bed capacity of the next day can be obtained by examining the forecasts of the number of discharged patients during the next day. The features of fluctuations in daily discharges like trend, seasonal cycles, special-day effects, and autocorrelation complicate decision optimizing, while time-series models can capture these features well. This research compares three models: a model combining seasonal regression and ARIMA, a multiplicative seasonal ARIMA (MSARIMA) model, and a combinatorial model based on MSARIMA and weighted Markov Chain models in generating forecasts of daily discharges. The models are applied to three years of discharge data of an entire hospital. Several performance measures like the direction of the symmetry value, normalized mean squared error, and mean absolute percentage error are utilized to capture the under- and overprediction in model selection. The findings indicate that daily discharges can be forecast by using the proposed models. A number of important practical implications are discussed, such as the use of accurate forecasts in discharge planning, admission scheduling, and capacity reservation.

Information retrieval for nonstationary data records

Science.gov (United States)

Su, M. Y.

1971-01-01

A review and a critical discussion are made on the existing methods for analysis of nonstationary time series, and a new algorithm for splitting nonstationary time series, is applied to the analysis of sunspot data.

Visualizing the Geometric Series.

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, Albert B., Jr.

1989-01-01

Mathematical proofs often leave students unconvinced or without understanding of what has been proved, because they provide no visual-geometric representation. Presented are geometric models for the finite geometric series when r is a whole number, and the infinite geometric series when r is the reciprocal of a whole number. (MNS)

ENHANCEMENT OF A SUNSPOT LIGHT WALL WITH EXTERNAL DISTURBANCES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Shuhong; Zhang, Jun [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China); Erdélyi, Robert, E-mail: shuhongyang@nao.cas.cn [Solar Physics and Space Plasma Research Centre, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Hicks Building, Hounsfield Road, Sheffield S3 7RH (United Kingdom)

2016-12-20

Based on the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph observations, we study the response of a solar sunspot light wall to external disturbances. A flare occurrence near the light wall caused material to erupt from the lower solar atmosphere into the corona. Some material falls back to the solar surface and hits the light bridge (i.e., the base of the light wall), then sudden brightenings appear at the wall base followed by the rise of wall top, leading to an increase of the wall height. Once the brightness of the wall base fades, the height of the light wall begins to decrease. Five hours later, another nearby flare takes place, and a bright channel is formed that extends from the flare toward the light bridge. Although no obvious material flow along the bright channel is found, some ejected material is conjectured to reach the light bridge. Subsequently, the wall base brightens and the wall height begins to increase again. Once more, when the brightness of the wall base decays, the wall top fluctuates to lower heights. We suggest, based on the observed cases, that the interaction of falling material and ejected flare material with the light wall results in the brightenings of wall base and causes the height of the light wall to increase. Our results reveal that the light wall can be not only powered by the linkage of p -mode from below the photosphere, but may also be enhanced by external disturbances, such as falling material.

Numerical simulation of forced convection over a periodic series of rectangular cavities at low Prandtl number

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stalio, E.; Angeli, D.; Barozzi, G.S.

2011-01-01

Highlights: → We investigate laminar convective heat transfer in channels with periodic cavities. → Heat transfer rates are lower than for the flat channel. → This is ascribed to the steady circulating motion within the cavities. → Diffusion in a low Prandtl number fluid can locally overcome the heat transfer decrease due to advection only for isothermal boundary conditions. - Abstract: Convective heat transfer in laminar conditions is studied numerically for a Prandtl number Pr = 0.025, representative of liquid lead-bismuth eutectic (LBE). The geometry investigated is a channel with a periodic series of shallow cavities. Finite-volume simulations are carried out on structured orthogonal curvilinear grids, for ten values of the Reynolds number based on the hydraulic diameter between Re m = 24.9 and Re m = 2260. Flow separation and reattachment are observed also at very low Reynolds numbers and wall friction is found to be remarkably unequal at the two walls. In almost all cases investigated, heat transfer rates are smaller than the corresponding flat channel values. Low-Prandtl number heat transfer rates, investigated by comparison with Pr = 0.71 results, are large only for uniform wall temperature and very low Re. Influence of flow separation on local heat transfer rates is discussed, together with the effect of different thermal boundary conditions. Dependency of heat transfer performance on the cavity geometry is also considered.

Convergence of a Catalan Series

Science.gov (United States)

Koshy, Thomas; Gao, Zhenguang

2012-01-01

This article studies the convergence of the infinite series of the reciprocals of the Catalan numbers. We extract the sum of the series as well as some related ones, illustrating the power of the calculus in the study of the Catalan numbers.

The topside ionosphere above Arecibo at equinox during sunspot maximum

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bailey, G.J.

1980-01-01

The coupled time-dependent 0 + and H + continuity and momentum equations and 0 + , H + and electron heat balance equations are solved simultaneously within the L = 1.4 (Arecibo) magnetic flux tube between an altitude of 120 km and the equatorial plane. The results of the calculations are used in a study of the topside ionosphere above Arecibo at equinox during sunspot maximum. Magnetically quiet conditions are assumed. The results of the calculations show that the L = 1.4 magnetic flux tube becomes saturated from an arbitrary state within 2-3 days. During the day the ion content of the magnetic flux tube consists mainly of 0 + whereas 0 + and H + are both important during the night. There is an altitude region in the topside ionosphere during the day where ion-counterstreaming occurs with H + flowing downward and 0 + flowing upward. The conditions causing this ion-counterstreaming are discussed. There is a net chemical gain of H + at the higher altitudes. This H + diffuses both upwards and downwards whilst 0 + diffuses upwards from its solar e.u.v. production source which is most important at the lower altitudes. During the night the calculated 0 + and H + temperatures are very nearly equal whereas during the day there are occasions when the H + temperature exceeds the 0 - temperature by about 300 K. (author)

Internal and External reconnection in a Series of Homologous Solar Flares

Science.gov (United States)

Sterling, Alphonse C.; Moore, Ronald L.; Rose, M. Franklin (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Using data from the Extreme Ultraviolet Telescope (EIT) on SOHO and the Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT) on Yohkoh, we examine a series of morphologically homologous solar flares occurring in NOAA AR 8210 over May 1-2, 1998. An emerging flux region (EFR) impacted against a sunspot to the west and next to a coronal hole to the east is the source of the repeated flaring. An SXT sigmoid parallels the EFR's neutral line at the site of the initial flaring in soft X-rays. In EIT, each flaring episode begins with the formation of a crinkle pattern external to the EFR. These EIT crinkles move out from, and then in toward, the EFR with velocities approximately 20 km/s. A shrinking and expansion of the width of the coronal hole coincides with the crinkle activity, and generation and evolution of a postflare loop system begins near the. time of crinkle formation. Using a schematic based on magnetograms of the region, we suggest that these observations are consistent with the standard reconnection-based model for solar eruptions, but modified by the presence of the additional magnetic fields of the sunspot and coronal hole. In the schematic, internal reconnection begins inside of the EFR-associated fields, unleashing a flare, postflare loops, and a CME. External reconnection, first occurring between the escaping CME and the coronal hole field, and second occurring between fields formed as a result of the first external reconnection, results in the EIT crinkles and changes in the coronal hole boundary. By the end of the second external reconnection, the initial setup is reinstated; thus the sequence can repeat, resulting in morphologically homologous eruptions. Our inferred magnetic topology is similar to that suggested in the "breakout model" of eruptions [Antiochos, 1998], although we cannot determine if our eruptions are released primarily by the breakout mechanism (external reconnection) or, alternatively, are released primarily by the internal reconnection.

2016 Gainesville Number Theory Conference

CERN Document Server

Garvan, Frank

2017-01-01

Gathered from the 2016 Gainesville Number Theory Conference honoring Krishna Alladi on his 60th birthday, these proceedings present recent research in number theory. Extensive and detailed, this volume features 40 articles by leading researchers on topics in analytic number theory, probabilistic number theory, irrationality and transcendence, Diophantine analysis, partitions, basic hypergeometric series, and modular forms. Readers will also find detailed discussions of several aspects of the path-breaking work of Srinivasa Ramanujan and its influence on current research. Many of the papers were motivated by Alladi's own research on partitions and q-series as well as his earlier work in number theory.  Alladi is well known for his contributions in number theory and mathematics. His research interests include combinatorics, discrete mathematics, sieve methods, probabilistic and analytic number theory, Diophantine approximations, partitions and q-series identities. Graduate students and researchers will find th...

Solar wind and coronal structure near sunspot minimum - Pioneer and SMM observations from 1985-1987

Science.gov (United States)

Mihalov, J. D.; Barnes, A.; Hundhausen, A. J.; Smith, E. J.

1990-01-01

Changes in solar wind speed and magnetic polarity observed at the Pioneer spacecraft are discussed here in terms of the changing magnetic geometry implied by SMM coronagraph observations over the period 1985-1987. The pattern of recurrent solar wind streams, the long-term average speed, and the sector polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field all changed in a manner suggesting both a temporal variation, and a changing dependence on heliographic latitude. Coronal observations during this epoch show a systematic variation in coronal structure and the magnetic structure imposed on the expanding solar wind. These observations suggest interpretation of the solar wind speed variations in terms of the familiar model where the speed increases with distance from a nearly flat interplanetary current sheet, and where this current sheet becomes aligned with the solar equatorial plane as sunspot minimum approaches, but deviates rapidly from that orientation after minimum.

Hupa Numbers.

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, Ruth, Ed.; And Others

An introduction to the Hupa number system is provided in this workbook, one in a series of numerous materials developed to promote the use of the Hupa language. The book is written in English with Hupa terms used only for the names of numbers. The opening pages present the numbers from 1-10, giving the numeral, the Hupa word, the English word, and…

Predictions of Solar Cycle 24: How are We Doing?

Science.gov (United States)

Pesnell, William D.

2016-01-01

Predictions of solar activity are an essential part of our Space Weather forecast capability. Users are requiring usable predictions of an upcoming solar cycle to be delivered several years before solar minimum. A set of predictions of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 accumulated in 2008 ranged from zero to unprecedented levels of solar activity. The predictions formed an almost normal distribution, centered on the average amplitude of all preceding solar cycles. The average of the current compilation of 105 predictions of the annual-average sunspot number is 106 +/- 31, slightly lower than earlier compilations but still with a wide distribution. Solar Cycle 24 is on track to have a below-average amplitude, peaking at an annual sunspot number of about 80. Our need for solar activity predictions and our desire for those predictions to be made ever earlier in the preceding solar cycle will be discussed. Solar Cycle 24 has been a below-average sunspot cycle. There were peaks in the daily and monthly averaged sunspot number in the Northern Hemisphere in 2011 and in the Southern Hemisphere in 2014. With the rapid increase in solar data and capability of numerical models of the solar convection zone we are developing the ability to forecast the level of the next sunspot cycle. But predictions based only on the statistics of the sunspot number are not adequate for predicting the next solar maximum. I will describe how we did in predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 and describe how solar polar field predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

Performance of Partially Covered N Number of Photovoltaic Thermal (PVT) - Compound Parabolic Concentrator (CPC) Series Connected Water Heating System

OpenAIRE

Rohit Tripathi; Sumit Tiwari; G. N. Tiwari

2016-01-01

In present study, an approach is adopted where photovoltaic thermal flat plate collector is integrated with compound parabolic concentrator. Analytical expression of temperature dependent electrical efficiency of N number of partially covered Photovoltaic Thermal (PVT) - Compound Parabolic Concentrator (CPC) water collector connected in series has been derived with the help of basic thermal energy balance equations. Analysis has been carried for winter weather condition at Delhi location, Ind...

Bernoulli-Carlitz and Cauchy-Carlitz numbers with Stirling-Carlitz numbers

OpenAIRE

Kaneko, Hajime; Komatsu, Takao

2017-01-01

Recently, the Cauchy-Carlitz number was defined as the counterpart of the Bernoulli-Carlitz number. Both numbers can be expressed explicitly in terms of so-called Stirling-Carlitz numbers. In this paper, we study the second analogue of Stirling-Carlitz numbers and give some general formulae, including Bernoulli and Cauchy numbers in formal power series with complex coefficients, and Bernoulli-Carlitz and Cauchy-Carlitz numbers in function fields. We also give some applications of Hasse-Teichm...

Chromospheric Plasma Ejections in a Light Bridge of a Sunspot

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Song, Donguk; Chae, Jongchul; Yang, Heesu; Cho, Kyuhyoun; Kwak, Hannah [Astronomy Program, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826 (Korea, Republic of); Yurchyshyn, Vasyl [Big Bear Solar Observatory, New Jersey Institute of Technology, 40386 North Shore Lane, Big Bear City, CA 92314-9672 (United States); Lim, Eun-Kyung; Cho, Kyung-Suk, E-mail: dusong@astro.snu.ac.kr [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute 776, Daedeokdae-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34055 (Korea, Republic of)

2017-02-01

It is well-known that light bridges (LBs) inside a sunspot produce small-scale plasma ejections and transient brightenings in the chromosphere, but the nature and origin of such phenomena are still unclear. Utilizing the high-spatial and high-temporal resolution spectral data taken with the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph and the TiO 7057 Å broadband filter images installed at the 1.6 m New Solar Telescope of Big Bear Solar Observatory, we report arcsecond-scale chromospheric plasma ejections (1.″7) inside a LB. Interestingly, the ejections are found to be a manifestation of upwardly propagating shock waves as evidenced by the sawtooth patterns seen in the temporal-spectral plots of the Ca ii 8542 Å and H α intensities. We also found a fine-scale photospheric pattern (1″) diverging with a speed of about 2 km s{sup −1} two minutes before the plasma ejections, which seems to be a manifestation of magnetic flux emergence. As a response to the plasma ejections, the corona displayed small-scale transient brightenings. Based on our findings, we suggest that the shock waves can be excited by the local disturbance caused by magnetic reconnection between the emerging flux inside the LB and the adjacent umbral magnetic field. The disturbance generates slow-mode waves, which soon develop into shock waves, and manifest themselves as the arcsecond-scale plasma ejections. It also appears that the dissipation of mechanical energy in the shock waves can heat the local corona.

Chromospheric Plasma Ejections in a Light Bridge of a Sunspot

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Donguk; Chae, Jongchul; Yurchyshyn, Vasyl; Lim, Eun-Kyung; Cho, Kyung-Suk; Yang, Heesu; Cho, Kyuhyoun; Kwak, Hannah

2017-02-01

It is well-known that light bridges (LBs) inside a sunspot produce small-scale plasma ejections and transient brightenings in the chromosphere, but the nature and origin of such phenomena are still unclear. Utilizing the high-spatial and high-temporal resolution spectral data taken with the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph and the TiO 7057 Å broadband filter images installed at the 1.6 m New Solar Telescope of Big Bear Solar Observatory, we report arcsecond-scale chromospheric plasma ejections (1.″7) inside a LB. Interestingly, the ejections are found to be a manifestation of upwardly propagating shock waves as evidenced by the sawtooth patterns seen in the temporal-spectral plots of the Ca II 8542 Å and Hα intensities. We also found a fine-scale photospheric pattern (1″) diverging with a speed of about 2 km s-1 two minutes before the plasma ejections, which seems to be a manifestation of magnetic flux emergence. As a response to the plasma ejections, the corona displayed small-scale transient brightenings. Based on our findings, we suggest that the shock waves can be excited by the local disturbance caused by magnetic reconnection between the emerging flux inside the LB and the adjacent umbral magnetic field. The disturbance generates slow-mode waves, which soon develop into shock waves, and manifest themselves as the arcsecond-scale plasma ejections. It also appears that the dissipation of mechanical energy in the shock waves can heat the local corona.

Transfinite Numbers

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Transfinite Numbers. What is Infinity? S M Srivastava. In a series of revolutionary articles written during the last quarter of the nineteenth century, the great Ger- man mathematician Georg Cantor removed the age-old mistrust of infinity and created an exceptionally beau- tiful and useful theory of transfinite numbers. This is.

Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model

Science.gov (United States)

Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar; Sadeghian, Marzieh; Kangavari, Mehdi; Asghari, Mehdi; Madrese, Elham; Abbasinia, Marzieh; Ahmadnezhad, Iman; Gholizadeh, Yavar

2013-01-01

Background: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. Methods: The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012. Results: The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months. Conclusion: The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year. PMID:26120405

NONLINEAR PREDICTION OF SOLAR CYCLE 24

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kilcik, A.; Anderson, C. N. K.; Ye, H.; Sugihara, G.; Rozelot, J. P.; Ozguc, A.

2009-01-01

Sunspot activity is highly variable and challenging to forecast. Yet forecasts are important, since peak activity has profound effects on major geophysical phenomena including space weather (satellite drag, telecommunications outages) and has even been correlated speculatively with changes in global weather patterns. This paper investigates trends in sunspot activity, using new techniques for decadal-scale prediction of the present solar cycle (cycle 24). First, Hurst exponent H analysis is used to investigate the autocorrelation structure of the putative dynamics; then the Sugihara-May algorithm is used to predict the ascension time and the maximum intensity of the current sunspot cycle. Here we report H = 0.86 for the complete sunspot number data set (1700-2007) and H = 0.88 for the reliable sunspot data set (1848-2007). Using the Sugihara-May algorithm analysis, we forecast that cycle 24 will reach its maximum in 2012 December at approximately 87 sunspot units.

The influence of solar system oscillation on the variability of the total solar irradiance

Science.gov (United States)

Yndestad, Harald; Solheim, Jan-Erik

2017-02-01

Total solar irradiance (TSI) is the primary quantity of energy that is provided to the Earth. The properties of the TSI variability are critical for understanding the cause of the irradiation variability and its expected influence on climate variations. A deterministic property of TSI variability can provide information about future irradiation variability and expected long-term climate variation, whereas a non-deterministic variability can only explain the past. This study of solar variability is based on an analysis of two TSI data series, one since 1700 A.D. and one since 1000 A.D.; a sunspot data series since 1610 A.D.; and a solar orbit data series from 1000 A.D. The study is based on a wavelet spectrum analysis. First, the TSI data series are transformed into a wavelet spectrum. Then, the wavelet spectrum is transformed into an autocorrelation spectrum to identify stationary, subharmonic and coincidence periods in the TSI variability. The results indicate that the TSI and sunspot data series have periodic cycles that are correlated with the oscillations of the solar position relative to the barycenter of the solar system, which is controlled by gravity force variations from the large planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. A possible explanation for solar activity variations is forced oscillations between the large planets and the solar dynamo. We find that a stationary component of the solar variability is controlled by the 12-year Jupiter period and the 84-year Uranus period with subharmonics. For TSI and sunspot variations, we find stationary periods related to the 84-year Uranus period. Deterministic models based on the stationary periods confirm the results through a close relation to known long solar minima since 1000 A.D. and suggest a modern maximum period from 1940 to 2015. The model computes a new Dalton-type sunspot minimum from approximately 2025 to 2050 and a new Dalton-type period TSI minimum from approximately 2040 to 2065.

Fan-shaped jets above the light bridge of a sunspot driven by reconnection

Science.gov (United States)

Robustini, Carolina; Leenaarts, Jorrit; de la Cruz Rodriguez, Jaime; Rouppe van der Voort, Luc

2016-05-01

We report on a fan-shaped set of high-speed jets above a strongly magnetized light bridge (LB) of a sunspot observed in the Hα line. We study the origin, dynamics, and thermal properties of the jets using high-resolution imaging spectroscopy in Hα from the Swedish 1m Solar Telescope and data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory and Hinode. The Hα jets have lengths of 7-38 Mm, are impulsively accelerated to a speed of ~100 km s-1 close to photospheric footpoints in the LB, and exhibit a constant deceleration consistent with solar effective gravity. They are predominantly launched from one edge of the light bridge, and their footpoints appear bright in the Hα wings. Atmospheric Imaging Assembly data indicates elongated brightenings that are nearly co-spatial with the Hα jets. We interpret them as jets of transition region temperatures. The magnetic field in the light bridge has a strength of 0.8-2 kG and it is nearly horizontal. All jet properties are consistent with magnetic reconnection as the driver. Movies associated to Figs. 1 and 2 are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Polar coronal holes and solar cycles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simon, P.A.

1979-01-01

The relationship between the geomagnetic activity of the three years preceding a sunspot minimum and the peak of the next sunspot maximum confirms the polar origin of the solar wind during one part of the solar cycle. Pointing out that the polar holes have a very small size or disappear at the time of the polar field reversal, a low latitude origin of the solar-wind at sunspot maximum is suggested and the cycle variation of solar wind and geomagnetic activity is described. In addition a close relationship is noted between the maximum level of the geomagnetic activity reached a few years before a solar minimum and its level at the next sunspot maximum. Studying separately the effects of both the low latitude holes and the solar activity, the possibility of predicting both the level of geomagnetic activity and the sunspot number at the next sunspot maximum is pointed out. As a conclusion the different categories of phenomena contributing to a solar cycle are specified. (Auth.)

The dynamic relation between activities in the Northern and Southern solar hemispheres

Science.gov (United States)

Volobuev, D. M.; Makarenko, N. G.

2016-12-01

The north-south (N/S) asymmetry of solar activity is the most pronounced phenomenon during 11-year cycle minimums. The goal of this work is to try to interpret the asymmetry as a result of the generalized synchronization of two dynamic systems. It is assumed that these systems are localized in two solar hemispheres. The evolution of these systems is considered in the topological embeddings of a sunspot area time series obtained with the use of the Takens algorithm. We determine the coupling measure and estimate it on the time series of daily sunspot areas. The measurement made it possible to interpret the asymmetry as an exchangeable dynamic equation, in which the roles of the driver-slave components change in time for two hemispheres.

Sun in the Epoch ``LOWERED'' Solar Activity: the Comparative Analysis of the Current 24 Solar Cycle and Past Authentic Low Cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Vitaly, Ishkov

A reliable series of the relative numbers of sunspots (14 solar cycles ‒ 165 years) it leads to the only scenario of solar activity cycles - to the alternation of epochs of “increased” (18 ‒ 22 cycles of solar activity) and “lowered” (12 ‒ 16 and 24 ‒ ...) solar activity with the periods of solar magnetic field reconstruction in solar zone of the sunspots formation (11, 12, 23) from one epoch to another. The regime of the produce of magnetic field significantly changes in these periods, providing to the subsequent 5 cycles the stable conditions of solar activity. Space solar research made it possible to sufficiently fully investigate characteristics and parameters of the solar cycles for the epoch of “increased” (20 ‒ 22 cycles) solar activity and period of the reconstruction (22 ‒ 23 cycles) to the epoch of “lowered” solar activity (24 ‒ ... cycles). In this scenario 24 solar cycle is the first solar cycle of the second epoch of “lowered” solar activity. Therefore his development and characteristics roughly must be described in the context of the low solar cycles development (12, 14, and 16). In the current solar cycle the sunspot-forming activity is lowered, the average areas of the sunspot groups correspond to values for epoch of “lowered “solar activity, average magnetic field in the umbra of sunspots was reduced approximately to 700 gauss, and for this time was observed only 4 very large sunspot groups (≥1500 mvh). Flare activity substantially was lowered: for the time of the current solar cycle development it was occurrence of M-class flares M - 368, class X - 32, from which only 2 solar flares of class X> 5. Solar proton events are observed predominantly small intensity; but only 5 from them were the intensity of ≥100 pfu (S2) and 4 - ≥1000 pfu (S3). The first five years of the 24 cycle evolution confirm this assumption and the possibility to give the qualitative forecast of his evolution and development of the

Estimation of the order of an autoregressive time series: a Bayesian approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robb, L.J.

1980-01-01

Finite-order autoregressive models for time series are often used for prediction and other inferences. Given the order of the model, the parameters of the models can be estimated by least-squares, maximum-likelihood, or Yule-Walker method. The basic problem is estimating the order of the model. The problem of autoregressive order estimation is placed in a Bayesian framework. This approach illustrates how the Bayesian method brings the numerous aspects of the problem together into a coherent structure. A joint prior probability density is proposed for the order, the partial autocorrelation coefficients, and the variance; and the marginal posterior probability distribution for the order, given the data, is obtained. It is noted that the value with maximum posterior probability is the Bayes estimate of the order with respect to a particular loss function. The asymptotic posterior distribution of the order is also given. In conclusion, Wolfer's sunspot data as well as simulated data corresponding to several autoregressive models are analyzed according to Akaike's method and the Bayesian method. Both methods are observed to perform quite well, although the Bayesian method was clearly superior, in most cases

Resonant behaviour of MHD waves on magnetic flux tubes. I - Connection formulae at the resonant surfaces. II - Absorption of sound waves by sunspots

Science.gov (United States)

Sakurai, Takashi; Goossens, Marcel; Hollweg, Joseph V.

1991-01-01

The present method of addressing the resonance problems that emerge in such MHD phenomena as the resonant absorption of waves at the Alfven resonance point avoids solving the fourth-order differential equation of dissipative MHD by recourse to connection formulae across the dissipation layer. In the second part of this investigation, the absorption of solar 5-min oscillations by sunspots is interpreted as the resonant absorption of sounds by a magnetic cylinder. The absorption coefficient is interpreted (1) analytically, under certain simplifying assumptions, and numerically, under more general conditions. The observed absorption coefficient magnitude is explained over suitable parameter ranges.

Young Gifted Children: Meeting Their Needs. Research in Practice Series. Volume 12, Number 3

Science.gov (United States)

Porter, Louise

2005-01-01

The "Research in Practice Series" is published four times each year by Early Childhood Australia. The series aims to provide practical, easy to read, up-to-date information and support to a growing national readership of early childhood workers. The books bring together the best information available on wide-ranging topics and are an…

Eta Products and Theta Series Identities

CERN Document Server

Kohler, Gunter

2011-01-01

This monograph deals with products of Dedekind's eta function, with Hecke theta series on quadratic number fields, and with "Eisenstein series." The author brings to the public the large number of identities that have been discovered over the past 20 years, the majority of which have not been published elsewhere. This book will be of interest to graduate students and scholars in the field of number theory and, in particular, modular forms. It is not an introductory text in this field. Nevertheless, some theoretical background material is presented that is important for understanding

Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy | Indian Academy of Sciences

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

2016-01-27

Jan 27, 2016 ... Volume 26 Issue 1 March 2005 pp 103-115 ... Sunspot; time series; system identification; parametric modelling; optimization, parallelism; adaptation. ... After explaining the proposed heuristics and the tuning of its parameters, ...

Latitude and Power Characteristics of Solar Activity at the End of the Maunder Minimum

Science.gov (United States)

Ivanov, V. G.; Miletsky, E. V.

2017-12-01

Two important sources of information about sunspots in the Maunder minimum are the Spörer catalog (Spörer, 1889) and observations of the Paris observatory (Ribes and Nesme-Ribes, 1993), which cover in total the last quarter of the 17th and the first two decades of the 18th century. These data, in particular, contain information about sunspot latitudes. As we showed in (Ivanov et al., 2011; Ivanov and Miletsky, 2016), dispersions of sunspot latitude distributions are tightly related to sunspot indices, and we can estimate the level of solar activity in the past using a method which is not based on direct calculation of sunspots and weakly affected by loss of observational data. The latitude distributions of sunspots in the time of transition from the Maunder minimum to the regular regime of solar activity proved to be wide enough. It gives evidences in favor of, first, not very low cycle no.-3 (1712-1723) with the Wolf number in maximum W = 100 ± 50, and, second, nonzero activity in the maximum of cycle no.-4 (1700-1711) W = 60 ± 45. Therefore, the latitude distributions in the end of the Maunder minimum are in better agreement with the traditional Wolf numbers and new revisited indices of activity SN and GN (Clette et al., 2014; Svalgaard and Schatten, 2016) than with the GSN (Hoyt and Schatten, 1998); the latter provide much lower level of activity in this epoch.

Detection of density-dependent effects on caribou numbers from a series of census data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francois Messier

1991-10-01

Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to review and discuss the applicability of statistical procedures for the detection of density dependence based on a series of annual or multi-annual censuses. Regression models for which the statistic value under the null hypothesis of density independence is set a priori (slope = 0 or 1, generate spurious indications of density dependence. These tests are inappropriate because low sample sizes, high variance, and sampling error consistently bias the slope when applied to a finite number of population estimates. Two distribution-free tests are reviewed for which the rejection region for the hypothesis of density independence is derived intrinsically from the data through a computer-assisted permutation process. The "randomization test" gives the best results as the presence of a pronounced trend in the sequence of population estimates does not affect test results. The other non-parametric test, the "permutation test", gives reliable results only if the population fluctuates around a long-term equilibrium density. Both procedures are applied to three sets of data (Pukaskwa herd, Avalon herd, and a hypothetical example that represent quite divergent population trajectories over time.

A SOLAR FLARE DISTURBING A LIGHT WALL ABOVE A SUNSPOT LIGHT BRIDGE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hou, Yijun; Zhang, Jun; Li, Ting; Yang, Shuhong; Li, Leping; Li, Xiaohong

2016-01-01

With the high-resolution data from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph , we detect a light wall above a sunspot light bridge in the NOAA active region (AR) 12403. In the 1330 Å slit-jaw images, the light wall is brighter than the ambient areas while the wall top and base are much brighter than the wall body, and it keeps oscillating above the light bridge. A C8.0 flare caused by a filament activation occurred in this AR with the peak at 02:52 UT on 2015 August 28, and the flare’s one ribbon overlapped the light bridge, which was the observational base of the light wall. Consequently, the oscillation of the light wall was evidently disturbed. The mean projective oscillation amplitude of the light wall increased from 0.5 to 1.6 Mm before the flare and decreased to 0.6 Mm after the flare. We suggest that the light wall shares a group of magnetic field lines with the flare loops, which undergo a magnetic reconnection process, and they constitute a coupled system. When the magnetic field lines are pushed upward at the pre-flare stage, the light wall turns to the vertical direction, resulting in the increase of the light wall’s projective oscillation amplitude. After the magnetic reconnection takes place, a group of new field lines with smaller scales are formed underneath the reconnection site, and the light wall inclines. Thus, the projective amplitude notably decrease at the post-flare stage.

A SOLAR FLARE DISTURBING A LIGHT WALL ABOVE A SUNSPOT LIGHT BRIDGE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hou, Yijun; Zhang, Jun; Li, Ting; Yang, Shuhong; Li, Leping; Li, Xiaohong, E-mail: yijunhou@nao.cas.cn [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China)

2016-10-01

With the high-resolution data from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph , we detect a light wall above a sunspot light bridge in the NOAA active region (AR) 12403. In the 1330 Å slit-jaw images, the light wall is brighter than the ambient areas while the wall top and base are much brighter than the wall body, and it keeps oscillating above the light bridge. A C8.0 flare caused by a filament activation occurred in this AR with the peak at 02:52 UT on 2015 August 28, and the flare’s one ribbon overlapped the light bridge, which was the observational base of the light wall. Consequently, the oscillation of the light wall was evidently disturbed. The mean projective oscillation amplitude of the light wall increased from 0.5 to 1.6 Mm before the flare and decreased to 0.6 Mm after the flare. We suggest that the light wall shares a group of magnetic field lines with the flare loops, which undergo a magnetic reconnection process, and they constitute a coupled system. When the magnetic field lines are pushed upward at the pre-flare stage, the light wall turns to the vertical direction, resulting in the increase of the light wall’s projective oscillation amplitude. After the magnetic reconnection takes place, a group of new field lines with smaller scales are formed underneath the reconnection site, and the light wall inclines. Thus, the projective amplitude notably decrease at the post-flare stage.

Inclusion of mobile telephone numbers into an ongoing population health survey in New South Wales, Australia, using an overlapping dual-frame design: impact on the time series.

Science.gov (United States)

Barr, Margo L; Ferguson, Raymond A; Steel, David G

2014-08-12

Since 1997, the NSW Population Health Survey (NSWPHS) had selected the sample using random digit dialing of landline telephone numbers. When the survey began coverage of the population by landline phone frames was high (96%). As landline coverage in Australia has declined and continues to do so, in 2012, a sample of mobile telephone numbers was added to the survey using an overlapping dual-frame design. Details of the methodology are published elsewhere. This paper discusses the impacts of the sampling frame change on the time series, and provides possible approaches to handling these impacts. Prevalence estimates were calculated for type of phone-use, and a range of health indicators. Prevalence ratios (PR) for each of the health indicators were also calculated using Poisson regression analysis with robust variance estimation by type of phone-use. Health estimates for 2012 were compared to 2011. The full time series was examined for selected health indicators. It was estimated from the 2012 NSWPHS that 20.0% of the NSW population were mobile-only phone users. Looking at the full time series for overweight or obese and current smoking if the NSWPHS had continued to be undertaken only using a landline frame, overweight or obese would have been shown to continue to increase and current smoking would have been shown to continue to decrease. However, with the introduction of the overlapping dual-frame design in 2012, overweight or obese increased until 2011 and then decreased in 2012, and current smoking decreased until 2011, and then increased in 2012. Our examination of these time series showed that the changes were a consequence of the sampling frame change and were not real changes. Both the backcasting method and the minimal coverage method could adequately adjust for the design change and allow for the continuation of the time series. The inclusion of the mobile telephone numbers, through an overlapping dual-frame design, did impact on the time series for some of

Sunspot proper motions in active region NOAA 2372 and its flare activity during SMY period of 1980 April 4-13

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ambastha, A.; Bhatnagar, A.

1988-01-01

Solar Active Region NOAA 2372 was observed extensively by the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) satellite and several ground-based observatories during 1980 April 4-13 in the Solar Maximum Year. After its birth around April 4, it underwent a rapid growth and produced a reported 84 flares in the course of its disc passage. In this paper, photospheric and chromospheric observations of this active region have been studied together with Marshall Space Flight Center magnetograms and X-ray data from HXIS aboard the SMM satellite. In particular, the relationship of the flare-productivity with sunspot proper motions and emergence of new regions of magnetic flux in the active region from its birth to its disappearance at the W-limb has been discussed. (author). 7 figures, 2 tables, 29 refs

A steady-state supersonic downflow in the transition region above a sunspot umbra

Science.gov (United States)

Straus, Thomas; Fleck, Bernhard; Andretta, Vincenzo

2015-10-01

We investigate a small-scale (~1.5 Mm along the slit), supersonic downflow of about 90 km s-1 in the transition region above the lightbridged sunspot umbra in AR 11836. The observations were obtained with the Interface Region Spectrograph (IRIS) on 2013 September 2 from 16:40 to 17:59 UT. The downflow shows up as redshifted "satellite" lines of the Si iv and O iv transition region lines and is remarkably steady over the observing period of nearly 80 min. The downflow is not visible in the chromospheric lines, which only show an intensity enhancement at the location of the downflow. The density inferred from the line ratio of the redshifted satellites of the O iv lines (Ne = 1010.6 ± 0.25 cm-3) is only a factor 2 smaller than the one inferred from the main components (Ne = 1010.95 ± 0.20 cm-3). Consequently, this implies a substantial mass flux (~5 × 10-7 g cm-2 s-1), which would evacuate the overlying corona on timescales close to 10 s. We interpret these findings as evidence of a stationary termination shock of a supersonic siphon flow in a cool loop that is rooted in the central umbra of the spot. The movie is available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

On the structure of a magnetic field and its evolution in the vicinity of sunspots

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gopasyuk, S.I.; Kartashova, L.G.

1981-01-01

The structure of magnetic field and its evolution around single large sunspots has been studied. For this purpose observational data of the longitudinal magnetic field on the photospheric level and hsub(α) filtergrams for 18 active regions have been used. It is shown that there are characteristic directions corresponding to the transition of the spot field without sign change into an extended region of the same polarity and coinciding with extended (100000-300000 km) systems of filamentary feature chains of the fine chromospheric structure in active region. The horizontal magnetic f+eld component of the spot (systems of filamentary feature chains of the fine chromospheric structure) disappears on an extended region of chromospheric surface in the direction, where the satellite field (the field of opposite polarity) appears near its boundary. On the other hand, when satellite field disappears at some direction from the spot the transversal magnetic field appears on the extended surface region of the chromosphere keeping the same direction. One of the possible causes of disappearance of the transversal magnetic field on an extended region in the chromosphere might be the reconnection of magnetic lines of force [ru

Eisenstein series for infinite-dimensional U-duality groups

Science.gov (United States)

Fleig, Philipp; Kleinschmidt, Axel

2012-06-01

We consider Eisenstein series appearing as coefficients of curvature corrections in the low-energy expansion of type II string theory four-graviton scattering amplitudes. We define these Eisenstein series over all groups in the E n series of string duality groups, and in particular for the infinite-dimensional Kac-Moody groups E 9, E 10 and E 11. We show that, remarkably, the so-called constant term of Kac-Moody-Eisenstein series contains only a finite number of terms for particular choices of a parameter appearing in the definition of the series. This resonates with the idea that the constant term of the Eisenstein series encodes perturbative string corrections in BPS-protected sectors allowing only a finite number of corrections. We underpin our findings with an extensive discussion of physical degeneration limits in D < 3 space-time dimensions.

Influence of Time-Series Normalization, Number of Nodes, Connectivity and Graph Measure Selection on Seizure-Onset Zone Localization from Intracranial EEG.

Science.gov (United States)

van Mierlo, Pieter; Lie, Octavian; Staljanssens, Willeke; Coito, Ana; Vulliémoz, Serge

2018-04-26

We investigated the influence of processing steps in the estimation of multivariate directed functional connectivity during seizures recorded with intracranial EEG (iEEG) on seizure-onset zone (SOZ) localization. We studied the effect of (i) the number of nodes, (ii) time-series normalization, (iii) the choice of multivariate time-varying connectivity measure: Adaptive Directed Transfer Function (ADTF) or Adaptive Partial Directed Coherence (APDC) and (iv) graph theory measure: outdegree or shortest path length. First, simulations were performed to quantify the influence of the various processing steps on the accuracy to localize the SOZ. Afterwards, the SOZ was estimated from a 113-electrodes iEEG seizure recording and compared with the resection that rendered the patient seizure-free. The simulations revealed that ADTF is preferred over APDC to localize the SOZ from ictal iEEG recordings. Normalizing the time series before analysis resulted in an increase of 25-35% of correctly localized SOZ, while adding more nodes to the connectivity analysis led to a moderate decrease of 10%, when comparing 128 with 32 input nodes. The real-seizure connectivity estimates localized the SOZ inside the resection area using the ADTF coupled to outdegree or shortest path length. Our study showed that normalizing the time-series is an important pre-processing step, while adding nodes to the analysis did only marginally affect the SOZ localization. The study shows that directed multivariate Granger-based connectivity analysis is feasible with many input nodes (> 100) and that normalization of the time-series before connectivity analysis is preferred.

({The) Solar System Large Planets influence on a new Maunder Miniμm}

Science.gov (United States)

Yndestad, Harald; Solheim, Jan-Erik

2016-04-01

In 1890´s G. Spörer and E. W. Maunder (1890) reported that the solar activity stopped in a period of 70 years from 1645 to 1715. Later a reconstruction of the solar activity confirms the grand minima Maunder (1640-1720), Spörer (1390-1550), Wolf (1270-1340), and the minima Oort (1010-1070) and Dalton (1785-1810) since the year 1000 A.D. (Usoskin et al. 2007). These minimum periods have been associated with less irradiation from the Sun and cold climate periods on Earth. An identification of a three grand Maunder type periods and two Dalton type periods in a period thousand years, indicates that sooner or later there will be a colder climate on Earth from a new Maunder- or Dalton- type period. The cause of these minimum periods, are not well understood. An expected new Maunder-type period is based on the properties of solar variability. If the solar variability has a deterministic element, we can estimate better a new Maunder grand minimum. A random solar variability can only explain the past. This investigation is based on the simple idea that if the solar variability has a deterministic property, it must have a deterministic source, as a first cause. If this deterministic source is known, we can compute better estimates the next expected Maunder grand minimum period. The study is based on a TSI ACRIM data series from 1700, a TSI ACRIM data series from 1000 A.D., sunspot data series from 1611 and a Solar Barycenter orbit data series from 1000. The analysis method is based on a wavelet spectrum analysis, to identify stationary periods, coincidence periods and their phase relations. The result shows that the TSI variability and the sunspots variability have deterministic oscillations, controlled by the large planets Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune, as the first cause. A deterministic model of TSI variability and sunspot variability confirms the known minimum and grand minimum periods since 1000. From this deterministic model we may expect a new Maunder type sunspot

Preliminary observations and results obtained with the ultraviolet spectrometer and polarimeter. [for Solar Maximum Mission

Science.gov (United States)

Tandberg-Hassen, E.; Cheng, C. C.; Athay, R. G.; Beckers, J. M.; Brandt, J. C.; Chapman, R. D.; Bruner, E. C.; Henze, W.; Hyder, C. L.; Gurman, J. B.

1981-01-01

New observation with the Ultraviolet Spectrometer and Polarimeter (UVSP) of a number of manifestations of solar activity obtained during the first three months of Solar Maximum Mission operations are presented. Attention is given to polarimetry in sunspots, oscillations above sunspots, density diagnostics of transition-zone plasmas in active regions, and the eruptive prominence - coronal transient link.

Affirmative Action. Module Number 16. Work Experience Program Modules. Coordination Techniques Series.

Science.gov (United States)

Shawhan, Carl; Morley, Ray

This self-instructional module, the last in a series of 16 on techniques for coordinating work experience programs, deals with affirmative action. Addressed in the module are the following topics: the nature of affirmative action legislation and regulations, the role of the teacher-coordinator as a resource person for affirmative action…

A time-series approach to random number generation: Using recurrence quantification analysis to capture executive behavior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wouter eOomens

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The concept of executive functions plays a prominent role in contemporary experimental and clinical studies on cognition. One paradigm used in this framework is the random number generation (RNG task, the execution of which demands aspects of executive functioning, specifically inhibition and working memory. Data from the RNG task are best seen as a series of successive events. However, traditional RNG measures that are used to quantify executive functioning are mostly summary statistics referring to deviations from mathematical randomness. In the current study, we explore the utility of recurrence quantification analysis (RQA, a nonlinear method that keeps the entire sequence intact, as a better way to describe executive functioning compared to traditional measures. To this aim, 242 first- and second-year students completed a non-paced RNG task. Principal component analysis of their data showed that traditional and RQA measures convey more or less the same information. However, RQA measures do so more parsimoniously and have a better interpretation.

Analysing Stable Time Series

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Adler, Robert

1997-01-01

We describe how to take a stable, ARMA, time series through the various stages of model identification, parameter estimation, and diagnostic checking, and accompany the discussion with a goodly number...

APLIKASI SOFT COMPUTING PADA PREDIKSI CURAH HUJAN DI KALIMANTAN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deni Septiadi

2008-11-01

Full Text Available Analisis clustering curah hujan di Kalimantan menggunakan Jaringan Kompetitif Kohonen menghasilkan 5 kelompok wilayah yang disebut Zona Prediksi. Sementara itu spektrum data memperlihatkan sinyal sunspot hadir dalam deret waktu data curah hujan di semua Zona Prediksi dengan magnitude terbesar pada Zona Prediksi 2 yang mengindikasikan bahwa zona  tersebut memberikan respon langsung pada fenomena sunspot. Peranan aktivitas matahari pada pembentukan awan tinggi dipercayai berkaitan dengan variabilitas fluks sinar kosmik yang bervariasi terhadap lintang. Prediksi curah hujan bulanan dengan Metode ANFIS maupun Jaringan Neural dilakukan dengan menggunakan 1 Prediktor (curah hujan dan 2 Prediktor (kombinasi antara sinar kosmik dan sunspot dengan panjang data bervariasi yaitu 45 tahun, 30 tahun, dan 15 tahun  serta panjang data 46 tahun untuk prediksi tahunan (2007–2020. Secara keseluruhan keluaran Metode ANFIS 1 Prediktor menunjukkan nilai rata-rata RMSE (Root Mean Square Error yang lebih kecil untuk prediksi bulanan. Namun pada prediksi tahunan, Metode ANFIS 2 Prediktor menunjukkan hasil yang lebih baik. Dengan demikian fenomena sunspot dan sinar kosmik sebagai prediktor perlu dipertimbangkan dalam melakukan prediksi jangka panjang karena memberikan akurasi yang lebih baik dibandingkan jika hanya menggunakan curah hujan sebagai prediktor.   Clustering analysis of rainfall using competitive neural Kohonen yields 5 groups area called prediction zone. Meanwhile, data spectrum  shows that sunspot signal exist in time series of rainfall to all of prediction zone with the biggest magnitude at prediction zone 2 and indicates that zone gives direct response to the sunspot phenomena. Role of sunspot activity to the cloud formation believed relationships to the cosmic rays flux that various at latitude. Monthly rainfall prediction with ANFIS Method and Neural Network done with 1 Predictor (rainfall and 2 Predictors (combine between cosmic rays and sunspot

Reduction of the dimension of neural network models in problems of pattern recognition and forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Nasertdinova, A. D.; Bochkarev, V. V.

2017-11-01

Deep neural networks with a large number of parameters are a powerful tool for solving problems of pattern recognition, prediction and classification. Nevertheless, overfitting remains a serious problem in the use of such networks. A method of solving the problem of overfitting is proposed in this article. This method is based on reducing the number of independent parameters of a neural network model using the principal component analysis, and can be implemented using existing libraries of neural computing. The algorithm was tested on the problem of recognition of handwritten symbols from the MNIST database, as well as on the task of predicting time series (rows of the average monthly number of sunspots and series of the Lorentz system were used). It is shown that the application of the principal component analysis enables reducing the number of parameters of the neural network model when the results are good. The average error rate for the recognition of handwritten figures from the MNIST database was 1.12% (which is comparable to the results obtained using the "Deep training" methods), while the number of parameters of the neural network can be reduced to 130 times.

Planning Together: Positive Classroom Environments. Diversity in the Classroom Series, Number Four.

Science.gov (United States)

Hindle, Doug

This document, the fourth in a series on diversity in the classroom, supports the belief that challenges faced by teachers working with diverse students can only be met through teacher practices that increase levels of positive teacher-student interaction and that create, in each student, effective social and problem solving skills. Section 1,…

Elementary number theory

CERN Document Server

Dudley, Underwood

2008-01-01

Ideal for a first course in number theory, this lively, engaging text requires only a familiarity with elementary algebra and the properties of real numbers. Author Underwood Dudley, who has written a series of popular mathematics books, maintains that the best way to learn mathematics is by solving problems. In keeping with this philosophy, the text includes nearly 1,000 exercises and problems-some computational and some classical, many original, and some with complete solutions. The opening chapters offer sound explanations of the basics of elementary number theory and develop the fundamenta

Extreme phenophase delays and their relationship with natural forcings in Beijing over the past 260 years

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yang; Zhang, Mingqing; Fang, Xiuqi

2018-03-01

By merging reconstructed phenological series from published articles and observations of China Phenology Observation Network (CPON), the first blooming date of Amygdalus davidiana (FBA) in Beijing between 1741 and 2000 is reconstructed. The Butterworth method is used to remove the multi-year variations for generating the phenological series of annual variations in the first blooming date of A. davidiana. The extreme delay years in the phenological series are identified using the percentage threshold method. The characteristics of the extreme delays and the correspondence of these events with natural forcings are analysed. The main results are as follows. In annual phenological series, the extreme delays appeared in single year as main feature, only A.D.1800-1801, 1816-1817 and 1983-1984 were the events of two consecutively extreme years. Approximately 85% of the extreme delays occurred during 1-2 years after the large volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥ 4) in the eastern rim or the western rim of the Pacific Ocean, as the same proportion of the extreme delays followed El Niño events. About 73% years of the extreme delays fall in the valleys of sunspot cycles or the Dalton minimum period in the year or the previous year. According to the certainty factor (CF), the large eruptions have the greatest influence to the extreme delays; sunspot activity is the second, and ENSO is the last one. The extreme phenological delayed year is most likely to occur after a large eruption, which particularly occurs during El Niño year and its previous several years were in the descending portion or valley of sunspot phase.

The impact of harm reduction programs and police interventions on the number of syringes collected from public spaces. A time series analysis in Barcelona, 2004-2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Espelt, A; Villalbí, J R; Bosque-Prous, M; Parés-Badell, O; Mari-Dell'Olmo, M; Brugal, M T

2017-12-01

To estimate the effect of opening two services for people who use drugs and three police interventions on the number of discarded syringes collected from public spaces in Barcelona between 2004 and 2014. We conducted an interrupted time-series analysis of the monthly number of syringes collected from public spaces during this period. The dependent variable was the number of syringes collected per month. The main independent variables were month and five dummy variables (the opening of two facilities with safe consumption rooms, and three police interventions). To examine which interventions affected the number of syringes collected, we performed an interrupted time-series analysis using a quasi-Poisson regression model, obtaining relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The number of syringes collected per month in Barcelona decreased from 13,800 in 2004 to 1655 in 2014 after several interventions. For example, following the closure of an open drug scene in District A of the city, we observed a decreasing trend in the number of syringes collected [RR=0.88 (95% CI: 0.82-0.95)], but an increasing trend in the remaining districts [RR=1.11 (95% CI: 1.05-1.17) and 1.08 (95% CI: 0.99-1.18) for districts B and C, respectively]. Following the opening of a harm reduction facility in District C, we observed an initial increase in the number collected in this district [RR=2.72 (95% CI: 1.57-4.71)] and stabilization of the trend thereafter [RR=0.97 (95% CI: 0.91-1.03)]. The overall number of discarded syringes collected from public spaces has decreased consistently in parallel with a combination of police interventions and the opening of harm reduction facilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cuspidal discrete series for projective hyperbolic spaces

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Nils Byrial; Flensted-Jensen, Mogens

2013-01-01

Abstract. We have in [1] proposed a definition of cusp forms on semisimple symmetric spaces G/H, involving the notion of a Radon transform and a related Abel transform. For the real non-Riemannian hyperbolic spaces, we showed that there exists an infinite number of cuspidal discrete series......, and at most finitely many non-cuspidal discrete series, including in particular the spherical discrete series. For the projective spaces, the spherical discrete series are the only non-cuspidal discrete series. Below, we extend these results to the other hyperbolic spaces, and we also study the question...

Digital parallel-to-series pulse-train converter

Science.gov (United States)

Hussey, J.

1971-01-01

Circuit converts number represented as two level signal on n-bit lines to series of pulses on one of two lines, depending on sign of number. Converter accepts parallel binary input data and produces number of output pulses equal to number represented by input data.

Fast integration using quasi-random numbers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bossert, J.; Feindt, M.; Kerzel, U.

2006-01-01

Quasi-random numbers are specially constructed series of numbers optimised to evenly sample a given s-dimensional volume. Using quasi-random numbers in numerical integration converges faster with a higher accuracy compared to the case of pseudo-random numbers. The basic properties of quasi-random numbers are introduced, various generators are discussed and the achieved gain is illustrated by examples

Fast integration using quasi-random numbers

Science.gov (United States)

Bossert, J.; Feindt, M.; Kerzel, U.

2006-04-01

Quasi-random numbers are specially constructed series of numbers optimised to evenly sample a given s-dimensional volume. Using quasi-random numbers in numerical integration converges faster with a higher accuracy compared to the case of pseudo-random numbers. The basic properties of quasi-random numbers are introduced, various generators are discussed and the achieved gain is illustrated by examples.

Nice numbers

CERN Document Server

Barnes, John

2016-01-01

In this intriguing book, John Barnes takes us on a journey through aspects of numbers much as he took us on a geometrical journey in Gems of Geometry. Similarly originating from a series of lectures for adult students at Reading and Oxford University, this book touches a variety of amusing and fascinating topics regarding numbers and their uses both ancient and modern. The author intrigues and challenges his audience with both fundamental number topics such as prime numbers and cryptography, and themes of daily needs and pleasures such as counting one's assets, keeping track of time, and enjoying music. Puzzles and exercises at the end of each lecture offer additional inspiration, and numerous illustrations accompany the reader. Furthermore, a number of appendices provides in-depth insights into diverse topics such as Pascal’s triangle, the Rubik cube, Mersenne’s curious keyboards, and many others. A theme running through is the thought of what is our favourite number. Written in an engaging and witty sty...

M-number dependence of rotation period of the solar magnetic field and its effect on coronal hole and solar flare

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saito, Takao; Oki, Tosio

1989-01-01

The photospheric magnetic field is revealed to rotate with different solar rotation periods depending on its m-number, or its longitudinal range. The m-dependent rotation reveals the unexplained solar cycle variation of the 28-day period of the IMF 2-sector structure in inclining/minimum years and of the 27-day period in the declining/minimum years. The m-dependent rotation reveals also the unexplained 155-day periodicity in the occurrence of solar flare clusters, suggesting a motion of the sunspot field relative to the large-scale field. The IMF sector structure is closely related to recurrent geomagnetic storms, while the flare occurrence is related to sporadic SC storms. Hence, the m-dependent rotation is quite important in the study of the STE forecast. (author)

Simple Hofmeister series

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lyklema, J.

2009-01-01

Hofmeister, or lyotropic, series date back to 1888, when the founder arranged a large number of electrolytes in sequences with respect to their effectiveness salting out egg white. Since then the name has been applied to various phenomena involving ion specificity. In order to isolate effects

History of the theory of numbers

CERN Document Server

Dickson, Leonard Eugene

2005-01-01

The three-volume series History of the Theory of Numbers is the work of the distinguished mathematician Leonard Eugene Dickson, who taught at the University of Chicago for four decades and is celebrated for his many contributions to number theory and group theory. This second volume in the series, which is suitable for upper-level undergraduates and graduate students, is devoted to the subject of diophantine analysis. It can be read independently of the preceding volume, which explores divisibility and primality, and volume III, which examines quadratic and higher forms.Featured topics include

Generalized Bernoulli-Hurwitz numbers and the universal Bernoulli numbers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ônishi, Yoshihiro

2011-01-01

The three fundamental properties of the Bernoulli numbers, namely, the von Staudt-Clausen theorem, von Staudt's second theorem, and Kummer's original congruence, are generalized to new numbers that we call generalized Bernoulli-Hurwitz numbers. These are coefficients in the power series expansion of a higher-genus algebraic function with respect to a suitable variable. Our generalization differs strongly from previous works. Indeed, the order of the power of the modulus prime in our Kummer-type congruences is exactly the same as in the trigonometric function case (namely, Kummer's own congruence for the original Bernoulli numbers), and as in the elliptic function case (namely, H. Lang's extension for the Hurwitz numbers). However, in other past results on higher-genus algebraic functions, the modulus was at most half of its value in these classical cases. This contrast is clarified by investigating the analogue of the three properties above for the universal Bernoulli numbers. Bibliography: 34 titles.

Generalized Bernoulli-Hurwitz numbers and the universal Bernoulli numbers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Onishi, Yoshihiro [Faculty of Education Human Sciences, University of Yamanashi, Takeda, Kofu (Japan)

2011-10-31

The three fundamental properties of the Bernoulli numbers, namely, the von Staudt-Clausen theorem, von Staudt's second theorem, and Kummer's original congruence, are generalized to new numbers that we call generalized Bernoulli-Hurwitz numbers. These are coefficients in the power series expansion of a higher-genus algebraic function with respect to a suitable variable. Our generalization differs strongly from previous works. Indeed, the order of the power of the modulus prime in our Kummer-type congruences is exactly the same as in the trigonometric function case (namely, Kummer's own congruence for the original Bernoulli numbers), and as in the elliptic function case (namely, H. Lang's extension for the Hurwitz numbers). However, in other past results on higher-genus algebraic functions, the modulus was at most half of its value in these classical cases. This contrast is clarified by investigating the analogue of the three properties above for the universal Bernoulli numbers. Bibliography: 34 titles.

Relative phase asynchrony and long-range correlation of long-term solar magnetic activity

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Linhua

2017-07-01

Statistical signal processing is one of the most important tasks in a large amount of areas of scientific studies, such as astrophysics, geophysics, and space physics. Phase recurrence analysis and long-range persistence are the two dynamical structures of the underlying processes for the given natural phenomenon. Linear and nonlinear time series analysis approaches (cross-correlation analysis, cross-recurrence plot, wavelet coherent transform, and Hurst analysis) are combined to investigate the relative phase interconnection and long-range correlation between solar activity and geomagnetic activity for the time interval from 1932 January to 2017 January. The following prominent results are found: (1) geomagnetic activity lags behind sunspot numbers with a phase shift of 21 months, and they have a high level of asynchronous behavior; (2) their relative phase interconnections are in phase for the periodic scales during 8-16 years, but have a mixing behavior for the periodic belts below 8 years; (3) both sunspot numbers and geomagnetic activity can not be regarded as a stochastic phenomenon because their dynamical behaviors display a long-term correlation and a fractal nature. We believe that the presented conclusions could provide further information on understanding the dynamical coupling of solar dynamo process with geomagnetic activity variation, and the crucial role of solar and geomagnetic activity in the long-term climate change.

Prediction of the Length of Upcoming Solar Cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Kakad, Bharati; Kakad, Amar; Ramesh, Durbha Sai

2017-12-01

The forecast of solar cycle (SC) characteristics is crucial particularly for several space-based missions. In the present study, we propose a new model for predicting the length of the SC. The model uses the information of the width of an autocorrelation function that is derived from the daily sunspot data for each SC. We tested the model on Versions 1 and 2 of the daily international sunspot number data for SCs 10 - 24. We found that the autocorrelation width Aw n of SC n during the second half of its ascending phase correlates well with the modified length that is defined as T_{cy}^{n+2} - Tan. Here T_{cy}^{n+2} and T_{ a}n are the length and ascent time of SCs n+2 and n, respectively. The estimated correlation coefficient between the model parameters is 0.93 (0.91) for Version 1 (Version 2) sunspot series. The standard errors in the observed and predicted lengths of the SCs for Version 1 and Version 2 data are 0.38 and 0.44 years, respectively. The advantage of the proposed model is that the predictions of the length of the upcoming two SCs ( i.e., n+1, n+2) are readily available at the time of the peak of SC n. The present model gives a forecast of 11.01, 10.52, and 11.91 years (11.01, 12.20, and 11.68 years) for the length of SCs 24, 25, and 26, respectively, for Version 1 (Version 2).

The Complexity of Solar and Geomagnetic Indices

Science.gov (United States)

Pesnell, W. Dean

2017-08-01

How far in advance can the sunspot number be predicted with any degree of confidence? Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Statistical and timeseries analyses of the sunspot number are often used to predict solar activity. These methods have not been completely successful as the solar dynamo changes over time and one cycle's sunspots are not a faithful predictor of the next cycle's activity. In some ways, using these techniques is similar to asking whether the stock market can be predicted. It has been shown that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) can be more accurately predicted during periods when it obeys certain statistical properties than at other times. The Hurst exponent is one such way to partition the data. Another measure of the complexity of a timeseries is the fractal dimension. We can use these measures of complexity to compare the sunspot number with other solar and geomagnetic indices. Our concentration is on how trends are removed by the various techniques, either internally or externally. Comparisons of the statistical properties of the various solar indices may guide us in understanding how the dynamo manifests in the various indices and the Sun.

Design of a New Concentration Series for the Orthogonal Sample Design Approach and Estimation of the Number of Reactions in Chemical Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Jiajia; Liu, Yuhai; Guo, Ran; Li, Xiaopei; He, Anqi; Gao, Yunlong; Wei, Yongju; Liu, Cuige; Zhao, Ying; Xu, Yizhuang; Noda, Isao; Wu, Jinguang

2015-11-01

A new concentration series is proposed for the construction of a two-dimensional (2D) synchronous spectrum for orthogonal sample design analysis to probe intermolecular interaction between solutes dissolved in the same solutions. The obtained 2D synchronous spectrum possesses the following two properties: (1) cross peaks in the 2D synchronous spectra can be used to reflect intermolecular interaction reliably, since interference portions that have nothing to do with intermolecular interaction are completely removed, and (2) the two-dimensional synchronous spectrum produced can effectively avoid accidental collinearity. Hence, the correct number of nonzero eigenvalues can be obtained so that the number of chemical reactions can be estimated. In a real chemical system, noise present in one-dimensional spectra may also produce nonzero eigenvalues. To get the correct number of chemical reactions, we classified nonzero eigenvalues into significant nonzero eigenvalues and insignificant nonzero eigenvalues. Significant nonzero eigenvalues can be identified by inspecting the pattern of the corresponding eigenvector with help of the Durbin-Watson statistic. As a result, the correct number of chemical reactions can be obtained from significant nonzero eigenvalues. This approach provides a solid basis to obtain insight into subtle spectral variations caused by intermolecular interaction.

The effect of line damping, magneto-optics and parasitic light on the derivation of sunspot vector magnetic fields

Science.gov (United States)

Skumanich, A.; Lites, B. W.

1985-01-01

The least square fitting of Stokes observations of sunspots using a Milne-Eddington-Unno model appears to lead, in many circumstances, to various inconsistencies such as anomalously large doppler widths and, hence, small magnetic fields which are significantly below those inferred solely from the Zeeman splitting in the intensity profile. It is found that the introduction of additional physics into the model such as the inclusion of damping wings and magneto-optic birefrigence significantly improves the fit to Stokes parameters. Model fits excluding the intensity profile, i.e., of both magnitude as well as spectral shape of the polarization parameters alone, suggest that parasitic light in the intensity profile may also be a source of inconsistencies. The consequences of the physical changes on the vector properties of the field derived from the Fe I lambda 6173 line for the 17 November 1975 spot as well as on the thermodynamic state are discussed. A Doppler width delta lambda (D) - 25mA is bound to be consistent with a low spot temperature and microturbulence, and a damping constant of a = 0.2.

Corrected Fourier series and its application to function approximation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qing-Hua Zhang

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Any quasismooth function f(x in a finite interval [0,x0], which has only a finite number of finite discontinuities and has only a finite number of extremes, can be approximated by a uniformly convergent Fourier series and a correction function. The correction function consists of algebraic polynomials and Heaviside step functions and is required by the aperiodicity at the endpoints (i.e., f(0≠f(x0 and the finite discontinuities in between. The uniformly convergent Fourier series and the correction function are collectively referred to as the corrected Fourier series. We prove that in order for the mth derivative of the Fourier series to be uniformly convergent, the order of the polynomial need not exceed (m+1. In other words, including the no-more-than-(m+1 polynomial has eliminated the Gibbs phenomenon of the Fourier series until its mth derivative. The corrected Fourier series is then applied to function approximation; the procedures to determine the coefficients of the corrected Fourier series are illustrated in detail using examples.

Stochastic models for time series

CERN Document Server

Doukhan, Paul

2018-01-01

This book presents essential tools for modelling non-linear time series. The first part of the book describes the main standard tools of probability and statistics that directly apply to the time series context to obtain a wide range of modelling possibilities. Functional estimation and bootstrap are discussed, and stationarity is reviewed. The second part describes a number of tools from Gaussian chaos and proposes a tour of linear time series models. It goes on to address nonlinearity from polynomial or chaotic models for which explicit expansions are available, then turns to Markov and non-Markov linear models and discusses Bernoulli shifts time series models. Finally, the volume focuses on the limit theory, starting with the ergodic theorem, which is seen as the first step for statistics of time series. It defines the distributional range to obtain generic tools for limit theory under long or short-range dependences (LRD/SRD) and explains examples of LRD behaviours. More general techniques (central limit ...

On p-adic aspects of some perturbation series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dragovic, B.G.

1993-01-01

Series with factorial terms, which are of potential interest in quantum field theory and string theory, are considered. Divergent series in the real case are usually p-adic convergent. Using simple and number field invariant methods of summation, rational sums are obtained. Sums of the convergent and divergent counterparts of the same series are connected by adelic summability. 9 refs

The Harm that Underestimation of Uncertainty Does to Our Community: A Case Study Using Sunspot Area Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres

2017-08-01

Data products in heliospheric physics are very often provided without clear estimates of uncertainty. From helioseismology in the solar interior, all the way to in situ solar wind measurements beyond 1AU, uncertainty estimates are typically hard for users to find (buried inside long documents that are separate from the data products), or simply non-existent.There are two main reasons why uncertainty measurements are hard to find:1. Understanding instrumental systematic errors is given a much higher priority inside instrumental teams.2. The desire to perfectly understand all sources of uncertainty postpones indefinitely the actual quantification of uncertainty in our measurements.Using the cross calibration of 200 years of sunspot area measurements as a case study, in this presentation we will discuss the negative impact that inadequate measurements of uncertainty have on users, through the appearance of toxic and unnecessary controversies, and data providers, through the creation of unrealistic expectations regarding the information that can be extracted from their data. We will discuss how empirical estimates of uncertainty represent a very good alternative to not providing any estimates at all, and finalize by discussing the bare essentials that should become our standard practice for future instruments and surveys.

Fulltext PDF

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Upgradation of MOT and its Relevance to WET Campaigns (Alisher S. Hojaev), 311. Argos: An Optimized Time-Series Photometer (Anjum S. Mukadam & R. E. Nather),. 321. Small-scale Magnetic Field Diagnostics Outside Sunspots: Comparison of Different. Methods (D. N. Rachkovsky, T. T. Tsap & V. G. Lozitsky), 435.

DETECTION OF SUPERSONIC DOWNFLOWS AND ASSOCIATED HEATING EVENTS IN THE TRANSITION REGION ABOVE SUNSPOTS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kleint, L.; Martínez-Sykora, J. [Bay Area Environmental Research Institute, 625 2nd Street, Ste. 209, Petaluma, CA (United States); Antolin, P. [National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, 2-21-1 Osawa, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-8588 (Japan); Tian, H.; Testa, P.; Reeves, K. K.; McKillop, S.; Saar, S.; Golub, L. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Judge, P. [High Altitude Observatory/NCAR, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 (United States); De Pontieu, B.; Wuelser, J. P.; Boerner, P.; Hurlburt, N.; Lemen, J.; Tarbell, T. D.; Title, A. [Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory, 3251 Hanover St., Org. ADBS, Bldg. 252, Palo Alto, CA 94304 (United States); Carlsson, M.; Hansteen, V. [Institute of Theoretical Astrophysics, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1029, Blindern, NO-0315 Oslo (Norway); Jaeggli, S., E-mail: lucia.kleint@fhnw.ch [Department of Physics, Montana State University, Bozeman, P.O. Box 173840, Bozeman, MT 59717 (United States); and others

2014-07-10

Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph data allow us to study the solar transition region (TR) with an unprecedented spatial resolution of 0.''33. On 2013 August 30, we observed bursts of high Doppler shifts suggesting strong supersonic downflows of up to 200 km s{sup –1} and weaker, slightly slower upflows in the spectral lines Mg II h and k, C II 1336, Si IV 1394 Å, and 1403 Å, that are correlated with brightenings in the slitjaw images (SJIs). The bursty behavior lasts throughout the 2 hr observation, with average burst durations of about 20 s. The locations of these short-lived events appear to be the umbral and penumbral footpoints of EUV loops. Fast apparent downflows are observed along these loops in the SJIs and in the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly, suggesting that the loops are thermally unstable. We interpret the observations as cool material falling from coronal heights, and especially coronal rain produced along the thermally unstable loops, which leads to an increase of intensity at the loop footpoints, probably indicating an increase of density and temperature in the TR. The rain speeds are on the higher end of previously reported speeds for this phenomenon, and possibly higher than the free-fall velocity along the loops. On other observing days, similar bright dots are sometimes aligned into ribbons, resembling small flare ribbons. These observations provide a first insight into small-scale heating events in sunspots in the TR.

Numbers and Measuring, Learning With TOR: MINNEMAST Coordinated Mathematics - Science Series, Unit 16.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogt, Elaine E., Ed.

This volume is the sixteenth in a series of 29 coordinated MINNEMAST units in mathematics and science for kindergarten and the primary grades. Intended for use by second-grade teachers, this unit guide provides a summary and overview of the unit, a list of materials needed, and descriptions of five groups of lessons. The purposes and procedures…

Solar spectral irradiance variability of some chromospheric emission lines through the solar activity cycles 21-23

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Göker Ü.D.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available A study of variations of solar spectral irradiance (SSI in the wave-length ranges 121.5 nm-300.5 nm for the period 1981-2009 is presented. We used various data for ultraviolet (UV spectral lines and international sunspot number (ISSN from interactive data centers such as SME (NSSDC, UARS (GDAAC, SORCE (LISIRD and SIDC, respectively. We reduced these data by using the MATLsoftware package. In this respect, we revealed negative correlations of intensities of UV (289.5 nm-300.5 nm spectral lines originating in the solar chromosphere with the ISSN index during the unusually prolonged minimum between the solar activity cycles (SACs 23 and 24. We also compared our results with the variations of solar activity indices obtained by the ground-based telescopes. Therefore, we found that plage regions decrease while facular areas are increasing in SAC 23. However, the decrease in plage regions is seen in small sunspot groups (SGs, contrary to this, these regions in large SGs are comparable to previous SACs or even larger as is also seen in facular areas. Nevertheless, negative correlations between ISSN and SSI data indicate that these variations are in close connection with the classes of sunspots/SGs, faculae and plage regions. Finally, we applied the time series analysis of spectral lines corresponding to the wavelengths 121.5 nm-300.5 nm and made comparisons with the ISSN data. We found an unexpected increase in the 298.5 nm line for the Fe II ion. The variability of Fe II ion 298.5 nm line is in close connection with the facular areas and plage regions, and the sizes of these solar surface indices play an important role for the SSI variability, as well. So, we compared the connection between the sizes of faculae and plage regions, sunspots/SGs, chemical elements and SSI variability. Our future work will be the theoretical study of this connection and developing of a corresponding model.

Solar variability and climate change: An historical perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Feldman, Theodore S.

There is nothing new about the debate over the Sun's influence on terrestrial climate.As early as the late 18th century, widespread concern for the deterioration of the Earth's climate led to speculation about the Sun's role in climate change [Feldman, 1993; Fleming, 1990]. Drawing analogies with variations in the brightness of stars, the British astronomer William Herschel suggested that greater sunspot activity would result in warmer terrestrial climates. Herschel supported his hypothesis by referring to price series for wheat published in Adam Smiths Wealth of Nations [Hufbauer, 1991]. Later, the eminent American physicist Joseph Henry demonstrated by thermopile measurements that, contrary to Herschel's assumption, sunspots were cooler than the unblemished portions of the solar disk.

Comparación de los datos de áreas de manchas solares de los telescopios de la red SOON (``Solar Optical Observing Network'')

Science.gov (United States)

Leuzzi, L.; Balmaceda, L.; Francile, C.

2017-10-01

At present different studies reveal that the observations of the size of sunspots made by the network of telescopes SOON (Solar Optical Observing Network), differ from those obtained by other observatories although there is still no consensus as to the magnitude of that difference . In order to have a better understanding of the causes that give rise to these discrepancies, we present a detailed study of the sunspot series from each of the observatories that belong to the SOON network, covering the period 1982 - present and whose importance lies in the fact that they serve as a link between the historical record of the Greenwich Royal Observatory (1874-1976) and the most recent observations (as of 1976).

Data Mining Smart Energy Time Series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Janina POPEANGA

2015-07-01

Full Text Available With the advent of smart metering technology the amount of energy data will increase significantly and utilities industry will have to face another big challenge - to find relationships within time-series data and even more - to analyze such huge numbers of time series to find useful patterns and trends with fast or even real-time response. This study makes a small review of the literature in the field, trying to demonstrate how essential is the application of data mining techniques in the time series to make the best use of this large quantity of data, despite all the difficulties. Also, the most important Time Series Data Mining techniques are presented, highlighting their applicability in the energy domain.

On design and evaluation of tapped-delay neural network architectures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Svarer, Claus; Hansen, Lars Kai; Larsen, Jan

1993-01-01

Pruning and evaluation of tapped-delay neural networks for the sunspot benchmark series are addressed. It is shown that the generalization ability of the networks can be improved by pruning using the optimal brain damage method of Le Cun, Denker and Solla. A stop criterion for the pruning algorithm...

Extending "the Rubber Rope": Convergent Series, Divergent Series and the Integrating Factor

Science.gov (United States)

McCartney, Mark

2013-01-01

A well-known mathematical puzzle regarding a worm crawling along an elastic rope is considered. The resulting generalizations provide examples for use in a teaching context including applications of series summation, the use of the integrating factor for the solution of differential equations, and the evaluation of definite integrals. A number of…

Power Series Solution to the Pendulum Equation

Science.gov (United States)

Benacka, Jan

2009-01-01

This note gives a power series solution to the pendulum equation that enables to investigate the system in an analytical way only, i.e. to avoid numeric methods. A method of determining the number of the terms for getting a required relative error is presented that uses bigger and lesser geometric series. The solution is suitable for modelling the…

Effectiveness of Multivariate Time Series Classification Using Shapelets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. P. Karpenko

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Typically, time series classifiers require signal pre-processing (filtering signals from noise and artifact removal, etc., enhancement of signal features (amplitude, frequency, spectrum, etc., classification of signal features in space using the classical techniques and classification algorithms of multivariate data. We consider a method of classifying time series, which does not require enhancement of the signal features. The method uses the shapelets of time series (time series shapelets i.e. small fragments of this series, which reflect properties of one of its classes most of all.Despite the significant number of publications on the theory and shapelet applications for classification of time series, the task to evaluate the effectiveness of this technique remains relevant. An objective of this publication is to study the effectiveness of a number of modifications of the original shapelet method as applied to the multivariate series classification that is a littlestudied problem. The paper presents the problem statement of multivariate time series classification using the shapelets and describes the shapelet–based basic method of binary classification, as well as various generalizations and proposed modification of the method. It also offers the software that implements a modified method and results of computational experiments confirming the effectiveness of the algorithmic and software solutions.The paper shows that the modified method and the software to use it allow us to reach the classification accuracy of about 85%, at best. The shapelet search time increases in proportion to input data dimension.

Estimating High-Dimensional Time Series Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Medeiros, Marcelo C.; Mendes, Eduardo F.

We study the asymptotic properties of the Adaptive LASSO (adaLASSO) in sparse, high-dimensional, linear time-series models. We assume both the number of covariates in the model and candidate variables can increase with the number of observations and the number of candidate variables is, possibly......, larger than the number of observations. We show the adaLASSO consistently chooses the relevant variables as the number of observations increases (model selection consistency), and has the oracle property, even when the errors are non-Gaussian and conditionally heteroskedastic. A simulation study shows...

Number series of atoms, interatomic bonds and interface bonds defining zinc-blende nanocrystals as function of size, shape and surface orientation: Analytic tools to interpret solid state spectroscopy data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dirk König

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Semiconductor nanocrystals (NCs experience stress and charge transfer by embedding materials or ligands and impurity atoms. In return, the environment of NCs experiences a NC stress response which may lead to matrix deformation and propagated strain. Up to now, there is no universal gauge to evaluate the stress impact on NCs and their response as a function of NC size dNC. I deduce geometrical number series as analytical tools to obtain the number of NC atoms NNC(dNC[i], bonds between NC atoms Nbnd(dNC[i] and interface bonds NIF(dNC[i] for seven high symmetry zinc-blende (zb NCs with low-index faceting: {001} cubes, {111} octahedra, {110} dodecahedra, {001}-{111} pyramids, {111} tetrahedra, {111}-{001} quatrodecahedra and {001}-{111} quadrodecahedra. The fundamental insights into NC structures revealed here allow for major advancements in data interpretation and understanding of zb- and diamond-lattice based nanomaterials. The analytical number series can serve as a standard procedure for stress evaluation in solid state spectroscopy due to their deterministic nature, easy use and general applicability over a wide range of spectroscopy methods as well as NC sizes, forms and materials.

Symbolic Computation, Number Theory, Special Functions, Physics and Combinatorics

CERN Document Server

Ismail, Mourad

2001-01-01

These are the proceedings of the conference "Symbolic Computation, Number Theory, Special Functions, Physics and Combinatorics" held at the Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, from November 11 to 13, 1999. The main emphasis of the conference was Com­ puter Algebra (i. e. symbolic computation) and how it related to the fields of Number Theory, Special Functions, Physics and Combinatorics. A subject that is common to all of these fields is q-series. We brought together those who do symbolic computation with q-series and those who need q-series in­ cluding workers in Physics and Combinatorics. The goal of the conference was to inform mathematicians and physicists who use q-series of the latest developments in the field of q-series and especially how symbolic computa­ tion has aided these developments. Over 60 people were invited to participate in the conference. We ended up having 45 participants at the conference, including six one hour plenary speakers and 28 half hour speakers. T...

Geometrical relationship of flare-generated solar wind structures to the magnetic axes of bipolar sunspot groups adjacent to their originating solar flares

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ivanov, K.G.; Evdokimova, L.V.; Mikerina, N.V.

1982-01-01

Occurrences of interplanetary shock waves near the Earth after the powerful isolated flares of 1957-1978 are investigated. The close connection between the occurrences of shock waves and the positions of magnetic axes of bipolar groups of sunspots is suggested on the basis of a statistical study. The shock waves are principally observed when the Earth finds itself near the planes that are projected through the flares in parallel to the appropriate magnetic axes of the nearest bipolar groups. This regularity is interpreted as an indirect argument for a three-dimensional geometry for the interplanetary shock waves which, when projected on these flattened to corresponding planes, are traces of large circular arcs. The typical angular scales of isolated interplanetary shock waves are estimated as approx. equal to 150 0 and approx. equal to 30 0 parallel and perpendicular, respectively, to the magnetic axes correspondingly. (orig.)

Extending Counter-streaming Motion from an Active Region Filament to a Sunspot Light Bridge

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Haimin; Liu, Rui; Li, Qin; Liu, Chang; Deng, Na; Xu, Yan; Jing, Ju; Wang, Yuming; Cao, Wenda

2018-01-01

We analyze high-resolution observations from the 1.6 m telescope at Big Bear Solar Observatory that cover an active region filament. Counter-streaming motions are clearly observed in the filament. The northern end of the counter-streaming motions extends to a light bridge, forming a spectacular circulation pattern around a sunspot, with clockwise motion in the blue wing and counterclockwise motion in the red wing, as observed in the Hα off-bands. The apparent speed of the flow is around 10–60 km s‑1 in the filament, decreasing to 5–20 km s‑1 in the light bridge. The most intriguing results are the magnetic structure and the counter-streaming motions in the light bridge. Similar to those in the filament, the magnetic fields show a dominant transverse component in the light bridge. However, the filament is located between opposed magnetic polarities, while the light bridge is between strong fields of the same polarity. We analyze the power of oscillations with the image sequences of constructed Dopplergrams, and find that the filament’s counter-streaming motion is due to physical mass motion along fibrils, while the light bridge’s counter-streaming motion is due to oscillation in the direction along the line-of-sight. The oscillation power peaks around 4 minutes. However, the section of the light bridge next to the filament also contains a component of the extension of the filament in combination with the oscillation, indicating that some strands of the filament are extended to and rooted in that part of the light bridge.

Different strategies in solving series completion inductive reasoning problems : An fMRI and computational study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liang, Peipeng; Jia, Xiuqin; Taatgen, Niels A.; Zhong, Ning; Li, Kuncheng

Neural correlate of human inductive reasoning process is still unclear. Number series and letter series completion are two typical inductive reasoning tasks, and with a common core component of rule induction. Previous studies have demonstrated that different strategies are adopted in number series

Quantum random number generator

Science.gov (United States)

Soubusta, Jan; Haderka, Ondrej; Hendrych, Martin

2001-03-01

Since reflection or transmission of a quantum particle on a beamsplitter is inherently random quantum process, a device built on this principle does not suffer from drawbacks of neither pseudo-random computer generators or classical noise sources. Nevertheless, a number of physical conditions necessary for high quality random numbers generation must be satisfied. Luckily, in quantum optics realization they can be well controlled. We present an easy random number generator based on the division of weak light pulses on a beamsplitter. The randomness of the generated bit stream is supported by passing the data through series of 15 statistical test. The device generates at a rate of 109.7 kbit/s.

Simultaneous Observations of p-mode Light Walls and Magnetic Reconnection Ejections above Sunspot Light Bridges

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hou, Yijun; Zhang, Jun; Li, Ting; Yang, Shuhong; Li, Xiaohong, E-mail: yijunhou@nao.cas.cn, E-mail: zjun@nao.cas.cn [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China)

2017-10-10

Recent high-resolution observations from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph reveal bright wall-shaped structures in active regions (ARs), especially above sunspot light bridges. Their most prominent feature is the bright oscillating front in the 1400/1330 Å channel. These structures are named light walls and are often interpreted to be driven by p-mode waves. Above the light bridge of AR 12222 on 2014 December 06, we observed intermittent ejections superimposed on an oscillating light wall in the 1400 Å passband. At the base location of each ejection, the emission enhancement was detected in the Solar Dynamics Observatory 1600 Å channel. Thus, we suggest that in wall bases (light bridges), in addition to the leaked p-mode waves consistently driving the oscillating light wall, magnetic reconnection could happen intermittently at some locations and eject the heated plasma upward. Similarly, in the second event occurring in AR 12371 on 2015 June 16, a jet was simultaneously detected in addition to the light wall with a wave-shaped bright front above the light bridge. At the footpoint of this jet, lasting brightening was observed, implying magnetic reconnection at the base. We propose that in these events, two mechanisms, p-mode waves and magnetic reconnection, simultaneously play roles in the light bridge, and lead to the distinct kinetic features of the light walls and the ejection-like activities, respectively. To illustrate the two mechanisms and their resulting activities above light bridges, in this study we present a cartoon model.

A theory of the Earth's magnetic field and of sunspots, based on a self-excited dynamo incorporating the Hall effect

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. de Paor

2001-01-01

Full Text Available A new viewpoint on the generation and maintenance of the Earth's magnetic field is put forward, which integrates self-exciting dynamo theory with the possibility of energy coupling along orthogonal axes provided by the Hall effect. A nonlinear third-order system is derived, with a fourth equation serving as an observer of unspecified geophysical processes which could result in field reversal. Lyapunov analysis proves that chaos is not intrinsic to this system. Relative constancy of one of the variables produces pseudo equilibrium in a second order subsystem and allows for self-excitation of the geomagnetic field. Electromagnetic analysis yields expressions for key parameters. Models for secular variations recorded at London, Palermo and at the Cape of Good Hope over the past four hundred years are offered. Offset of the Earth's magnetic axis from the geographic axis is central to time-varying declination, but its causes have not yet been established. Applicability of the model to the explanation of sunspot activity is outlined. A corroborating experiment published by Peter Barlow in 1831 is appended.

Number series of atoms, interatomic bonds and interface bonds defining zinc-blende nanocrystals as function of size, shape and surface orientation: Analytic tools to interpret solid state spectroscopy data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

König, Dirk, E-mail: dirk.koenig@unsw.edu.au [Integrated Materials Design Centre (IMDC) and School of Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering (SPREE), University of New South Wales, Sydney (Australia)

2016-08-15

Semiconductor nanocrystals (NCs) experience stress and charge transfer by embedding materials or ligands and impurity atoms. In return, the environment of NCs experiences a NC stress response which may lead to matrix deformation and propagated strain. Up to now, there is no universal gauge to evaluate the stress impact on NCs and their response as a function of NC size d{sub NC}. I deduce geometrical number series as analytical tools to obtain the number of NC atoms N{sub NC}(d{sub NC}[i]), bonds between NC atoms N{sub bnd}(d{sub NC}[i]) and interface bonds N{sub IF}(d{sub NC}[i]) for seven high symmetry zinc-blende (zb) NCs with low-index faceting: {001} cubes, {111} octahedra, {110} dodecahedra, {001}-{111} pyramids, {111} tetrahedra, {111}-{001} quatrodecahedra and {001}-{111} quadrodecahedra. The fundamental insights into NC structures revealed here allow for major advancements in data interpretation and understanding of zb- and diamond-lattice based nanomaterials. The analytical number series can serve as a standard procedure for stress evaluation in solid state spectroscopy due to their deterministic nature, easy use and general applicability over a wide range of spectroscopy methods as well as NC sizes, forms and materials.

Metagenomics meets time series analysis: unraveling microbial community dynamics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Faust, K.; Lahti, L.M.; Gonze, D.; Vos, de W.M.; Raes, J.

2015-01-01

The recent increase in the number of microbial time series studies offers new insights into the stability and dynamics of microbial communities, from the world's oceans to human microbiota. Dedicated time series analysis tools allow taking full advantage of these data. Such tools can reveal periodic

Genealogical series method. Hyperpolar points screen effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gorbatov, A.M.

1991-01-01

The fundamental values of the genealogical series method -the genealogical integrals (sandwiches) have been investigated. The hyperpolar points screen effect has been found. It allows one to calculate the sandwiches for the Fermion systems with large number of particles and to ascertain the validity of the iterated-potential method as well. For the first time the genealogical-series method has been realized numerically for the central spin-independent potential

Annual reconstruction of the solar cycle from atmospheric 14C variations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphy, J.O.

1990-01-01

Initially, the rise and fall components of the 11-year solar sunspot cycle are approximated by separate least-squares polynomials for four cycle classifications, which are determined by the magnitude of the average of the annual sunspot numbers per cycle. Following a method is formulated to generate detailed reconstruction of the annual variation of a solar cycle based on this cycle average, and the results obtained for cycles -4 through to 21 are compared with the annual Zurich values. This procedure is then employed to establish annual sunspot numbers using published average cycle values obtained from atmospheric carbon 14 variations, which have been derived from the chemical analysis of tree ring sections. The reconstructed sequences are correlated with the observed cycle values and with tree ring width index chronologies which exhibit a significant 11-year periodicity. It is anticipated that the long carbon 14 records and parallel dendrochronological data could be employed to obtain a more detailed portrayal of previous periods of strong solar activity than that given by current estimates based on historical records. 17 refs., 2 tabs., 9 figs

Duality between QCD perturbative series and power corrections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narison, S.; Zakharov, V.I.

2009-01-01

We elaborate on the relation between perturbative and power-like corrections to short-distance sensitive QCD observables. We confront theoretical expectations with explicit perturbative calculations existing in literature. As is expected, the quadratic correction is dual to a long perturbative series and one should use one of them but not both. However, this might be true only for very long perturbative series, with number of terms needed in most cases exceeding the number of terms available. What has not been foreseen, the quartic corrections might also be dual to the perturbative series. If confirmed, this would imply a crucial modification of the dogma. We confront this quadratic correction against existing phenomenology (QCD (spectral) sum rules scales, determinations of light quark masses and of α s from τ-decay). We find no contradiction and (to some extent) better agreement with the data and with recent lattice calculations.

Duality between QCD perturbative series and power corrections

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Narison, S. [Laboratoire de Physique Theorique et Astroparticules, CNRS-IN2P3 and Universite de Montpellier II, Case 070, Place Eugene, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 05 (France)], E-mail: snarison@yahoo.fr; Zakharov, V.I. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik, Foehringer Ring 6, 80805 Munich (Germany); Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Physics, B. Cheremushkinskaya 25, Moscow 117218 (Russian Federation)], E-mail: xxz@mppmu.mpg.de

2009-08-31

We elaborate on the relation between perturbative and power-like corrections to short-distance sensitive QCD observables. We confront theoretical expectations with explicit perturbative calculations existing in literature. As is expected, the quadratic correction is dual to a long perturbative series and one should use one of them but not both. However, this might be true only for very long perturbative series, with number of terms needed in most cases exceeding the number of terms available. What has not been foreseen, the quartic corrections might also be dual to the perturbative series. If confirmed, this would imply a crucial modification of the dogma. We confront this quadratic correction against existing phenomenology (QCD (spectral) sum rules scales, determinations of light quark masses and of {alpha}{sub s} from {tau}-decay). We find no contradiction and (to some extent) better agreement with the data and with recent lattice calculations.

From Calculus to Number Theory

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

A. Raghuram

2016-11-04

Nov 4, 2016 ... diverges to infinity. This means given any number M, however large, we can add sufficiently many terms in the above series to make the sum larger than M. This was first proved by Nicole Oresme (1323-1382), a brilliant. French philosopher of his times.

Testing random number generators for Monte Carlo applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sim, L.H.

1992-01-01

Central to any system for modelling radiation transport phenomena using Monte Carlo techniques is the method by which pseudo random numbers are generated. This method is commonly referred to as the Random Number Generator (RNG). It is usually a computer implemented mathematical algorithm which produces a series of numbers uniformly distributed on the interval [0,1]. If this series satisfies certain statistical tests for randomness, then for practical purposes the pseudo random numbers in the series can be considered to be random. Tests of this nature are important not only for new RNGs but also to test the implementation of known RNG algorithms in different computer environments. Six RNGs have been tested using six statistical tests and one visual test. The statistical tests are the moments, frequency (digit and number), serial, gap, and poker tests. The visual test is a simple two dimensional ordered pair display. In addition the RNGs have been tested in a specific Monte Carlo application. This type of test is often overlooked, however it is important that in addition to satisfactory performance in statistical tests, the RNG be able to perform effectively in the applications of interest. The RNGs tested here are based on a variety of algorithms, including multiplicative and linear congruential, lagged Fibonacci, and combination arithmetic and lagged Fibonacci. The effect of the Bays-Durham shuffling algorithm on the output of a known bad RNG has also been investigated. 18 refs., 11 tabs., 4 figs. of

Spectroscopy, Understanding the Atom Series.

Science.gov (United States)

Hellman, Hal

This booklet is one of the "Understanding the Atom" Series. The science of spectroscopy is presented by a number of topics dealing with (1) the uses of spectroscopy, (2) its origin and background, (3) the basic optical systems of spectroscopes, spectrometers, and spectrophotometers, (4) the characteristics of wave motion, (5) the…

Quantifying Selection with Pool-Seq Time Series Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Taus, Thomas; Futschik, Andreas; Schlötterer, Christian

2017-11-01

Allele frequency time series data constitute a powerful resource for unraveling mechanisms of adaptation, because the temporal dimension captures important information about evolutionary forces. In particular, Evolve and Resequence (E&R), the whole-genome sequencing of replicated experimentally evolving populations, is becoming increasingly popular. Based on computer simulations several studies proposed experimental parameters to optimize the identification of the selection targets. No such recommendations are available for the underlying parameters selection strength and dominance. Here, we introduce a highly accurate method to estimate selection parameters from replicated time series data, which is fast enough to be applied on a genome scale. Using this new method, we evaluate how experimental parameters can be optimized to obtain the most reliable estimates for selection parameters. We show that the effective population size (Ne) and the number of replicates have the largest impact. Because the number of time points and sequencing coverage had only a minor effect, we suggest that time series analysis is feasible without major increase in sequencing costs. We anticipate that time series analysis will become routine in E&R studies. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

A multiphase series-resonant converter with a new topology and a reduced number of thyristors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huisman, H.

1995-01-01

Multiphase series resonant (SR) power converters provide a flexible way to transform power between a utility grid and a multiphase load or source. The current implementations all suffer from a high component count, which makes the use of these power converters unattractive from an economical point

Deriving crop calendar using NDVI time-series

Science.gov (United States)

Patel, J. H.; Oza, M. P.

2014-11-01

Agricultural intensification is defined in terms as cropping intensity, which is the numbers of crops (single, double and triple) per year in a unit cropland area. Information about crop calendar (i.e. number of crops in a parcel of land and their planting & harvesting dates and date of peak vegetative stage) is essential for proper management of agriculture. Remote sensing sensors provide a regular, consistent and reliable measurement of vegetation response at various growth stages of crop. Therefore it is ideally suited for monitoring purpose. The spectral response of vegetation, as measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and its profiles, can provide a new dimension for describing vegetation growth cycle. The analysis based on values of NDVI at regular time interval provides useful information about various crop growth stages and performance of crop in a season. However, the NDVI data series has considerable amount of local fluctuation in time domain and needs to be smoothed so that dominant seasonal behavior is enhanced. Based on temporal analysis of smoothed NDVI series, it is possible to extract number of crop cycles per year and their crop calendar. In the present study, a methodology is developed to extract key elements of crop growth cycle (i.e. number of crops per year and their planting - peak - harvesting dates). This is illustrated by analysing MODIS-NDVI data series of one agricultural year (from June 2012 to May 2013) over Gujarat. Such an analysis is very useful for analysing dynamics of kharif and rabi crops.

Stochastic generation of hourly wind speed time series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shamshad, A.; Wan Mohd Ali Wan Hussin; Bawadi, M.A.; Mohd Sanusi, S.A.

2006-01-01

In the present study hourly wind speed data of Kuala Terengganu in Peninsular Malaysia are simulated by using transition matrix approach of Markovian process. The wind speed time series is divided into various states based on certain criteria. The next wind speed states are selected based on the previous states. The cumulative probability transition matrix has been formed in which each row ends with 1. Using the uniform random numbers between 0 and 1, a series of future states is generated. These states have been converted to the corresponding wind speed values using another uniform random number generator. The accuracy of the model has been determined by comparing the statistical characteristics such as average, standard deviation, root mean square error, probability density function and autocorrelation function of the generated data to those of the original data. The generated wind speed time series data is capable to preserve the wind speed characteristics of the observed data

Different strategies in solving series completion inductive reasoning problems: an fMRI and computational study.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Peipeng; Jia, Xiuqin; Taatgen, Niels A; Zhong, Ning; Li, Kuncheng

2014-08-01

Neural correlate of human inductive reasoning process is still unclear. Number series and letter series completion are two typical inductive reasoning tasks, and with a common core component of rule induction. Previous studies have demonstrated that different strategies are adopted in number series and letter series completion tasks; even the underlying rules are identical. In the present study, we examined cortical activation as a function of two different reasoning strategies for solving series completion tasks. The retrieval strategy, used in number series completion tasks, involves direct retrieving of arithmetic knowledge to get the relations between items. The procedural strategy, used in letter series completion tasks, requires counting a certain number of times to detect the relations linking two items. The two strategies require essentially the equivalent cognitive processes, but have different working memory demands (the procedural strategy incurs greater demands). The procedural strategy produced significant greater activity in areas involved in memory retrieval (dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, DLPFC) and mental representation/maintenance (posterior parietal cortex, PPC). An ACT-R model of the tasks successfully predicted behavioral performance and BOLD responses. The present findings support a general-purpose dual-process theory of inductive reasoning regarding the cognitive architecture. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Teaching Directed Numbers at Secondary School Level. Series of Caribbean Volunteer Publications, No. 7.

Science.gov (United States)

Voluntary Services Overseas, Castries (St. Lucia).

This book is a collection of teaching strategies and activities for teachers of secondary mathematics. This volume is the product of a workshop that focused on student understanding of directed numbers. Suggested teaching methods include introducing the number concept, using a number line, number strips, monograms, bottle top addition and…

Het televisieprogramma "Familie Oudenrijn" II : evaluatie van de tweede serie van acht afleveringen.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wittink, R.D.

1988-01-01

In April /May 1988 the second series of the TV program Oudenrijn was shown. The series has the aim to stimulate road users to improve their behaviour. It is hoped that the series will act as a medium for countermeasures. An evaluation of the series was made with respect to the number of viewers and

Sequential series for nuclear reactions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Izumo, Ko

1975-01-01

A new time-dependent treatment of nuclear reactions is given, in which the wave function of compound nucleus is expanded by a sequential series of the reaction processes. The wave functions of the sequential series form another complete set of compound nucleus at the limit Δt→0. It is pointed out that the wave function is characterized by the quantities: the number of degrees of freedom of motion n, the period of the motion (Poincare cycle) tsub(n), the delay time t sub(nμ) and the relaxation time tausub(n) to the equilibrium of compound nucleus, instead of the usual quantum number lambda, the energy eigenvalue Esub(lambda) and the total width GAMMAsub(lambda) of resonance levels, respectively. The transition matrix elements and the yields of nuclear reactions also become the functions of time given by the Fourier transform of the usual ones. The Poincare cycles of compound nuclei are compared with the observed correlations among resonance levels, which are about 10 -17 --10 -16 sec for medium and heavy nuclei and about 10 -20 sec for the intermediate resonances. (auth.)

Reconstruction of Effective Cloud Field Geometry from Series of Sunshine Number

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Badescu, V.; Paulescu, M.; Brabec, Marek

176-177, 1 July - 1 August (2016), s. 254-266 ISSN 0169-8095 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : cloud field geometry * sunshine number * point cloud iness Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 3.778, year: 2016

Success Run Waiting Times and Fuss-Catalan Numbers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. J. Dilworth

2015-01-01

Full Text Available We present power series expressions for all the roots of the auxiliary equation of the recurrence relation for the distribution of the waiting time for the first run of k consecutive successes in a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials, that is, the geometric distribution of order k. We show that the series coefficients are Fuss-Catalan numbers and write the roots in terms of the generating function of the Fuss-Catalan numbers. Our main result is a new exact expression for the distribution, which is more concise than previously published formulas. Our work extends the analysis by Feller, who gave asymptotic results. We obtain quantitative improvements of the error estimates obtained by Feller.

CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S. [Department of Astronomy and Space Science, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104 (Korea, Republic of); Woods, T. N. [Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303 (United States); Hong, Sunhak, E-mail: gchoe@khu.ac.kr [School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104 (Korea, Republic of)

2016-12-10

It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable second maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.

CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S.; Woods, T. N.; Hong, Sunhak

2016-01-01

It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable second maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.

Nonlinear solar cycle forecasting: theory and perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Baranovski, A. L.; Clette, F.; Nollau, V.

2008-02-01

In this paper we develop a modern approach to solar cycle forecasting, based on the mathematical theory of nonlinear dynamics. We start from the design of a static curve fitting model for the experimental yearly sunspot number series, over a time scale of 306 years, starting from year 1700 and we establish a least-squares optimal pulse shape of a solar cycle. The cycle-to-cycle evolution of the parameters of the cycle shape displays different patterns, such as a Gleissberg cycle and a strong anomaly in the cycle evolution during the Dalton minimum. In a second step, we extract a chaotic mapping for the successive values of one of the key model parameters - the rate of the exponential growth-decrease of the solar activity during the n-th cycle. We examine piece-wise linear techniques for the approximation of the derived mapping and we provide its probabilistic analysis: calculation of the invariant distribution and autocorrelation function. We find analytical relationships for the sunspot maxima and minima, as well as their occurrence times, as functions of chaotic values of the above parameter. Based on a Lyapunov spectrum analysis of the embedded mapping, we finally establish a horizon of predictability for the method, which allows us to give the most probable forecasting of the upcoming solar cycle 24, with an expected peak height of 93±21 occurring in 2011/2012.

Multifractal analysis of visibility graph-based Ito-related connectivity time series.

Science.gov (United States)

Czechowski, Zbigniew; Lovallo, Michele; Telesca, Luciano

2016-02-01

In this study, we investigate multifractal properties of connectivity time series resulting from the visibility graph applied to normally distributed time series generated by the Ito equations with multiplicative power-law noise. We show that multifractality of the connectivity time series (i.e., the series of numbers of links outgoing any node) increases with the exponent of the power-law noise. The multifractality of the connectivity time series could be due to the width of connectivity degree distribution that can be related to the exit time of the associated Ito time series. Furthermore, the connectivity time series are characterized by persistence, although the original Ito time series are random; this is due to the procedure of visibility graph that, connecting the values of the time series, generates persistence but destroys most of the nonlinear correlations. Moreover, the visibility graph is sensitive for detecting wide "depressions" in input time series.

Weyl Group Multiple Dirichlet Series Type A Combinatorial Theory (AM-175)

CERN Document Server

Brubaker, Ben; Friedberg, Solomon

2011-01-01

Weyl group multiple Dirichlet series are generalizations of the Riemann zeta function. Like the Riemann zeta function, they are Dirichlet series with analytic continuation and functional equations, having applications to analytic number theory. By contrast, these Weyl group multiple Dirichlet series may be functions of several complex variables and their groups of functional equations may be arbitrary finite Weyl groups. Furthermore, their coefficients are multiplicative up to roots of unity, generalizing the notion of Euler products. This book proves foundational results about these series an

Dynamics of Subarcsecond Bright Dots in the Transition Region above Sunspots and Their Relation to Penumbral Micro-jets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Samanta, Tanmoy; Banerjee, Dipankar [Indian Institute of Astrophysics, Koramangala, Bangalore 560034 (India); Tian, Hui [School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University (China); Schanche, Nicole, E-mail: tsamanta@iiap.res.in, E-mail: huitian@pku.edu.cn, E-mail: dipu@iiap.res.in, E-mail: ns81@st-andrews.ac.uk [University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews (United Kingdom)

2017-02-01

Recent high-resolution observations have revealed that subarcsecond bright dots (BDs) with sub-minute lifetimes appear ubiquitously in the transition region (TR) above sunspot penumbra. The presence of penumbral micro-jets (PMJs) in the chromosphere was previously reported. It was proposed that both the PMJs and BDs are formed due to a magnetic reconnection process and may play an important role in heating of the penumbra. Using simultaneous observations of the chromosphere from the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) on board Hinode and observations of the TR from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph , we study the dynamics of BDs and their relation to PMJs. We find two types of BDs, one that is related to PMJs, and another that does not show any visible dynamics in the SOT Ca ii H images. From a statistical analysis we show that these two types have different properties. The BDs that are related to PMJs always appear at the top of the PMJs, the vast majority of which show inward motion and originate before the generation of the PMJs. These results may indicate that the reconnection occurs at the lower coronal/TR height and initiates PMJs at the chromosphere. This formation mechanism is in contrast with the formation of PMJs by reconnection in the (upper) photosphere between differently inclined fields.

Fourier series

CERN Document Server

Tolstov, Georgi P

1962-01-01

Richard A. Silverman's series of translations of outstanding Russian textbooks and monographs is well-known to people in the fields of mathematics, physics, and engineering. The present book is another excellent text from this series, a valuable addition to the English-language literature on Fourier series.This edition is organized into nine well-defined chapters: Trigonometric Fourier Series, Orthogonal Systems, Convergence of Trigonometric Fourier Series, Trigonometric Series with Decreasing Coefficients, Operations on Fourier Series, Summation of Trigonometric Fourier Series, Double Fourie

Foundations of analysis over surreal number fields

CERN Document Server

Alling, NL

1987-01-01

In this volume, a tower of surreal number fields is defined, each being a real-closed field having a canonical formal power series structure and many other higher order properties. Formal versions of such theorems as the Implicit Function Theorem hold over such fields. The Main Theorem states that every formal power series in a finite number of variables over a surreal field has a positive radius of hyper-convergence within which it may be evaluated. Analytic functions of several surreal and surcomplex variables can then be defined and studied. Some first results in the one variable case are derived. A primer on Conway''s field of surreal numbers is also given. Throughout the manuscript, great efforts have been made to make the volume fairly self-contained. Much exposition is given. Many references are cited. While experts may want to turn quickly to new results, students should be able to find the explanation of many elementary points of interest. On the other hand, many new results are given, and much mathe...

Multi-Scale Dissemination of Time Series Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guo, Qingsong; Zhou, Yongluan; Su, Li

2013-01-01

In this paper, we consider the problem of continuous dissemination of time series data, such as sensor measurements, to a large number of subscribers. These subscribers fall into multiple subscription levels, where each subscription level is specified by the bandwidth constraint of a subscriber......, which is an abstract indicator for both the physical limits and the amount of data that the subscriber would like to handle. To handle this problem, we propose a system framework for multi-scale time series data dissemination that employs a typical tree-based dissemination network and existing time...

Analysis of amplitude-phase disturbances of Wolf's numbers rhythmic structure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vojchishin, K.S.

1978-01-01

Statistical analysis of Wolf's number rhythmic structure has been carried out. Wolf's number time series is considered as a stochastic signal with irregular disturbances of rhythmic structure appearing because of random variability of single cycle parameters. A method and an algorythm for transforming the signal, to reduce all quasi-eleven-year cycles of mean-monthly Wolf's numbers to a signal mean duration, to find out and to eliminate rhythmic phase disturbances, are proposed. An estimate of the accuracy of the procedure is given. The results of calculations (on the mean duration range of cycles) of estimates of their mathematical expectation, dispersion and correlation function depending on time and its shift are given. The conclusion that Wolf's number time series may be treated as a sequence of stochastic cycles with randomly varying amplitude, duration and phase is grounded. A possibility for reducing the forecast of smoothed mean-monthly Wolf's numbers for one or more cycles ahead to the forecast of only three abovementioned parameters is pointed out

Detecting periodic oscillations in astronomy data: revisiting wavelet analysis with coloured and white noise

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Chang

2017-04-01

The intrinsic random variability of an astronomical source hampers the detection of possible periodicities that we are interested in. We find that a simple first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process gives a poor fit to the power decay in the observed spectrum for astrophysical sources and geodetic observations. Thus, appropriate background noise models have to be chosen for significance tests to distinguish real features from the intrinsic variability of the source. Here we recall the wavelet analysis with significance and confidence testing but extend it with the generalized Gauss Markov stochastic model as the null hypothesis, which includes AR(1) and a power law as special cases. We exemplify this discussion with real data, such as sunspot number data, geomagnetic indices, X-ray observations, as well as a Global Positioning System (GPS) position time series.

Number in Plato’s Philebus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shetnikov, Andrey

2009-06-01

Full Text Available The paper concerns the concept of number (arithmos, important for dialectical method of later Plato. It becomes clear that the arithmos in Plato’s dialectics should be understood as a concrete operation, a sort of tekhne, such as counting, enumeration, compilation of a comprehensive and systematic list, etc., rather then the theoretical number of abstract arithmetic. The author analyses a series of grammatical, musical and rhetorical examples, supplied by Plato in the Philebus and other dialogues, and traces the usage of arithmos and similar words in the earlier tradition, particularly, in Homer, Hesiod, the classical tragedy, and Herodotus.

Complex formation constant and hydration number change of aqua-rare earth ions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanno, H.

1998-01-01

Full text: It is now well established that the inner-sphere hydration number of aqua-rare earth ions changes from nine to eight in the middle of the rare earth series. This hydration number change greatly affects the complex formation of rare earth ions as we observe irregular variations in most series behaviours of the complex formation constant (K) in aqueous solution systems when K being plotted against 1/r or r (r is ionic radius of rare earth ion). Furthermore, it shows very anomalous concentration dependence in the sense that nona-aqua Ln 3+ ion increases in number with increase in salt concentration in aqueous rare earth salt solution (salt chloride, perchlorate). In this report, a theoretical derivation of the formation constant (K) for the inner-sphere complex formation of rare earth ions with a monodentate ligand was made by taking account of both the hydration number change in the middle of the series and its anomalous salt concentration dependence. The series behaviour of the formation constant against 1/r (or r) is successfully explained with using the empirical finding that K varies almost linearly with 1/r (or r) in the region where only one hydration number dominates. This success is also taken as evidence that the anomalous salt concentration dependence of the hydration number change is caused by the outer-sphere complex formation of rare earth ions with the condition that nona-aqua rare earth ions form outer-sphere complexes more easily than octa-aqua ions

`Indoor` series vending machines; `Indoor` series jido hanbaiki

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gensui, T.; Kida, A. [Fuji Electric Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Okumura, H. [Fuji Denki Reiki Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

1996-07-10

This paper introduces three series of vending machines that were designed to match the interior of an office building. The three series are vending machines for cups, paper packs, cans, and tobacco. Among the three series, `Interior` series has a symmetric design that was coated in a grain pattern. The inside of the `Interior` series is coated by laser satin to ensure a sense of superior quality and a refined style. The push-button used for product selection is hot-stamped on the plastic surface to ensure the hair-line luster. `Interior Phase II` series has a bay window design with a sense of superior quality and lightness. The inside of the `Interior Phase II` series is coated by laser satin. `Interior 21` series is integrated with the wall except the sales operation panel. The upper and lower dress panels can be detached and attached. The door lock is a wire-type structure with high operativity. The operation block is coated by titanium color. The dimensions of three series are standardized. 6 figs., 1 tab.

Variations in Solar Parameters and Cosmic Rays with Solar Magnetic Polarity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oh, S. [Department of Earth Science Education, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, 61186 (Korea, Republic of); Yi, Y., E-mail: suyeonoh@jnu.ac.kr [Department of Astronomy, Space Science and Geology, Chungnam National University, Daejeon, 34134 (Korea, Republic of)

2017-05-01

The sunspot number varies with the 11-year Schwabe cycle, and the solar magnetic polarity reverses every 11 years approximately at the solar maximum. Because of polarity reversal, the difference between odd and even solar cycles is seen in solar activity. In this study, we create the mean solar cycle expressed by phase using the monthly sunspot number for all solar cycles 1–23. We also generate the mean solar cycle for sunspot area, solar radio flux, and cosmic ray flux within the allowance of observational range. The mean solar cycle has one large peak at solar maximum for odd solar cycles and two small peaks for most even solar cycles. The odd and even solar cycles have the statistical difference in value and shape at a confidence level of at least 98%. For solar cycles 19–23, the second peak in the even solar cycle is larger than the first peak. This result is consistent with the frequent solar events during the declining phase after the solar maximum. The difference between odd and even solar cycles can be explained by a combined model of polarity reversal and solar rotation. In the positive/negative polarity, the polar magnetic field introduces angular momentum in the same/opposite direction as/to the solar rotation. Thus the addition/subtraction of angular momentum can increase/decrease the motion of plasma to support the formation of sunspots. Since the polarity reverses at the solar maximum, the opposite phenomenon occurs in the declining phase.

Precambrian cyclic rhythmites: solar-climatic or tidal signatures?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, G.E.

1990-01-01

For more than 60 years geologists have sought evidence of solar-climatic cyclicity in rhythmically laminated sedimentary rocks, but claims in general have not been persuasive. Three Precambrian rhythmite sequences in Australia that comprise varve-like laminae recently have received attention, however, as their conspicuous cycles of ca. 10-14 and/or 20-25 laminae have been ascribed a sunspot-cycle origin. They are the 2500 Ma old Weeli Wolli Formation, the 1750 Ma old Wollogorang Formation and the 650 Ma old Elatina Formation. New observations for the Weeli Wolli Formation, a siliceous banded iron-formation, suggest a cycle period exceeding the 23 microband couplets proposed by Trendall, casting doubt on the solar interpretation. The Weeli Wolli cyclicity may record Earth-tidal rhythms that modulated the discharge and composition of silica- and iron-bearing fumarolic waters. The structure of the cycles of silty dolomite and mudstone in the Wollogorang Formation does not support a sunspot-cycle origin, and a tidal control on sedimentation should be considered. The Elatina sequence of cyclic sandstone and siltstone laminae displays several empirical similarities to the sunspot series. The discovery of thicker, more complex lamina-cycles in the correlative Reynella Siltstone has, however, caused reappraisal of the solar interpretation of the Elatina rhythmites. The Elatina series may encode unique information on lunar orbital periods and the Earth's palaeorotation: the data indicate ca. 30.5 days per lunar month, 13.1 lunar months and ca. 400 days per year, and lunar apsides and lunar nodal cycles of 9.7 and ca. 19.5 years respectively some 650 Ma ago. (author)

Witnessing Solar Rejuvenation

Science.gov (United States)

Kohler, Susanna

2015-09-01

At the end of last year, the Suns large-scale magnetic field suddenly strengthened, reaching its highest value in over two decades. Here, Neil Sheeley and Yi-Ming Wang (both of the Naval Research Laboratory) propose an explanation for why this happened and what it predicts for the next solar cycle.Magnetic StrengtheningUntil midway through 2014, solar cycle 24 the current solar cycle was remarkably quiet. Even at its peak, it averaged only 79 sunspots per year, compared to maximums of up to 190 in recent cycles. Thus it was rather surprising when, toward the end of 2014, the Suns large-scale magnetic field underwent a sudden rejuvenation, with its mean field leaping up to its highest values since 1991 and causing unprecedentedly large numbers of coronal loops to collapse inward.Yet in spite of the increase we observed in the Suns open flux (the magnetic flux leaving the Suns atmosphere, measured from Earth), there was not a significant increase in solar activity, as indicated by sunspot number and the rate of coronal mass ejections. This means that the number of sources of magnetic flux didnt increase so Sheeley and Wang conclude that flux must instead have been emerging from those sources in a more efficient way! But how?Aligned ActivityWSO open flux and the radial component of the interplanetary magnetic field (measures of the magnetic flux leaving the Suns photosphere and heliosphere, respectively), compared to sunspot number (in units of 100 sunspots). A sudden increase in flux is visible after the peak of each of the last four sunspot cycles. Click for a larger view! [Sheeley Wang 2015]The authors show that the active regions on the solar surface in late 2014 lined up in such a way that the emerging flux was enhanced, forming a strong equatorial dipole field that accounts for the sudden rejuvenation observed.Interestingly, this rejuvenation of the Suns open flux wasnt just a one-time thing; similar bursts have occurred shortly after the peak of every sunspot

Variable Selection in Time Series Forecasting Using Random Forests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hristos Tyralis

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Time series forecasting using machine learning algorithms has gained popularity recently. Random forest is a machine learning algorithm implemented in time series forecasting; however, most of its forecasting properties have remained unexplored. Here we focus on assessing the performance of random forests in one-step forecasting using two large datasets of short time series with the aim to suggest an optimal set of predictor variables. Furthermore, we compare its performance to benchmarking methods. The first dataset is composed by 16,000 simulated time series from a variety of Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA models. The second dataset consists of 135 mean annual temperature time series. The highest predictive performance of RF is observed when using a low number of recent lagged predictor variables. This outcome could be useful in relevant future applications, with the prospect to achieve higher predictive accuracy.

Variation of the quiet sun at 21 cm - 1981-1987

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bastian, T.S.; Dulk, G.A.

1988-01-01

The sun was imaged at a wavelength of about 21 cm during 1981-1987 using the VLA, the Green Bank 91-m telescope, the Arecibo 305 m telescope, and powerful maximum entropy image reconstruction techniques. There was a systematic decrease in the quiet sun's brightness temperature at 21 cm as the sun declined from sunspot maximum to sunspot minimum; this was accompanied by a systematic decrease in the sun's radius. The two-fold decrease in the electron number density in the solar transition region and low corona could have been the cause of these variations. 7 references

Hydro-Quebec to complete series compensation protection by 1995

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Champagne, L

1991-09-01

Hydro-Quebec's 735-kV transmission system is characterized by remote hydroelectric power plants located far north of main load centers, making it difficult to maintain dynamic stability of the system in the case of faults. The utility is planning to install series compensation on its 735-kV network from 1992 to 1995 in order to correct for the reactive impedance of the transmission lines, thereby removing load electrically closer to the points of generation. Series compensation in the form of capacitor banks with overvoltage protection will be installed at line ends and will replace large numbers of conventional electromagnetic or electronic distance relays currently used as line protection equipment. Three Manicouagan-Levis lines and the Micoua-Laurentides line will be center-compensated at 17%. A total of thirty-seven 735-kV lines will be series-compensated at ca 40%. Two separate sets of tests were conducted to select the new series compensation system. Following a market study, eight systems of line protection relays were selected as most likely to operate on a series compensated system. All were performance tested on a transient network analyzer in a simulation involving all components of the 735-kV system with some exceptions. Relays singled out in standard tests were put to a series of more specific tests on the Abitibi-LaVerendrye line, where the largest number of relay malfunctions had been recorded. A current differential relay and a superimposed directional relay were recommended as the two primary protective systems to be installed. Backup protection will be provided by using one of the distance relays with memory polarization. 3 figs.

Integral Representations of the Catalan Numbers and Their Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Feng Qi

2017-08-01

Full Text Available In the paper, the authors survey integral representations of the Catalan numbers and the Catalan–Qi function, discuss equivalent relations between these integral representations, supply alternative and new proofs of several integral representations, collect applications of some integral representations, and present sums of several power series whose coefficients involve the Catalan numbers.

Recurrence Relations and Generating Functions of the Sequence of Sums of Corresponding Factorials and Triangular Numbers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Romer C. Castillo

2015-11-01

Full Text Available This study established some recurrence relations and exponential generating functions of the sequence of factoriangular numbers. A factoriangular number is defined as a sum of corresponding factorial and triangular number. The proofs utilize algebraic manipulations with some known results from calculus, particularly on power series and Maclaurin’s series. The recurrence relations were found by manipulating the formula defining a factoringular number while the ascertained exponential generating functions were in the closed form.

Real time detection of farm-level swine mycobacteriosis outbreak using time series modeling of the number of condemned intestines in abattoirs.

Science.gov (United States)

Adachi, Yasumoto; Makita, Kohei

2015-09-01

Mycobacteriosis in swine is a common zoonosis found in abattoirs during meat inspections, and the veterinary authority is expected to inform the producer for corrective actions when an outbreak is detected. The expected value of the number of condemned carcasses due to mycobacteriosis therefore would be a useful threshold to detect an outbreak, and the present study aims to develop such an expected value through time series modeling. The model was developed using eight years of inspection data (2003 to 2010) obtained at 2 abattoirs of the Higashi-Mokoto Meat Inspection Center, Japan. The resulting model was validated by comparing the predicted time-dependent values for the subsequent 2 years with the actual data for 2 years between 2011 and 2012. For the modeling, at first, periodicities were checked using Fast Fourier Transformation, and the ensemble average profiles for weekly periodicities were calculated. An Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted to the residual of the ensemble average on the basis of minimum Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The sum of the ARIMA model and the weekly ensemble average was regarded as the time-dependent expected value. During 2011 and 2012, the number of whole or partial condemned carcasses exceeded the 95% confidence interval of the predicted values 20 times. All of these events were associated with the slaughtering of pigs from three producers with the highest rate of condemnation due to mycobacteriosis.

A STATISTICAL STUDY OF FLARE PRODUCTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH SUNSPOT PROPERTIES IN DIFFERENT MAGNETIC TYPES OF ACTIVE REGIONS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Ya-Hui [Institute of Space Science, National Central University, Jhongli 32001, Taiwan (China); Hsieh, Min-Shiu [Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, AK 99775-7320 (United States); Yu, Hsiu-Shan [Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, University of California San Diego, CA 92093 (United States); Chen, P. F., E-mail: yhyang@jupiter.ss.ncu.edu.tw, E-mail: mhsieh2@alaska.edu, E-mail: hsyu@ucsd.edu, E-mail: chenpf@nju.edu.cn [School of Astronomy and Space Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023 (China)

2017-01-10

It is often believed that intense flares preferentially originate from the large-size active regions (ARs) with strong magnetic fields and complex magnetic configurations. This work investigates the dependence of flare activity on the AR properties and clarifies the influence of AR magnetic parameters on the flare productivity, based on two data sets of daily sunspot and flare information as well as the GOES soft X-ray measurements and HMI vector magnetograms. By considering the evolution of magnetic complexity, we find that flare behaviors are quite different in the short- and long-lived complex ARs and the ARs with more complex magnetic configurations are likely to host more impulsive and intense flares. Furthermore, we investigate several magnetic quantities and perform the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov test to examine the similarity/difference between two populations in different types of ARs. Our results demonstrate that the total source field strength on the photosphere has a good correlation with the flare activity in complex ARs. It is noted that intense flares tend to occur at the regions of strong source field in combination with an intermediate field-weighted shear angle. This result implies that the magnetic free energy provided by a complex AR could be high enough to trigger a flare eruption even with a moderate magnetic shear on the photosphere. We thus suggest that the magnetic free energy represented by the source field rather than the photospheric magnetic complexity is a better quantity to characterize the flare productivity of an AR, especially for the occurrence of intense flares.

Temporal and Periodic Variations of Sunspot Counts in Flaring and Non-Flaring Active Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V.; Donmez, B.; Obridko, V. N.; Ozguc, A.; Rozelot, J. P.

2018-04-01

We analyzed temporal and periodic variations of sunspot counts (SSCs) in flaring (C-, M-, or X-class flares), and non-flaring active regions (ARs) for nearly three solar cycles (1986 through 2016). Our main findings are as follows: i) temporal variations of monthly means of the daily total SSCs in flaring and non-flaring ARs behave differently during a solar cycle and the behavior varies from one cycle to another; during Solar Cycle 23 temporal SSC profiles of non-flaring ARs are wider than those of flaring ARs, while they are almost the same during Solar Cycle 22 and the current Cycle 24. The SSC profiles show a multi-peak structure and the second peak of flaring ARs dominates the current Cycle 24, while the difference between peaks is less pronounced during Solar Cycles 22 and 23. The first and second SSC peaks of non-flaring ARs have comparable magnitude in the current solar cycle, while the first peak is nearly absent in the case of the flaring ARs of the same cycle. ii) Periodic variations observed in the SSCs profiles of flaring and non-flaring ARs derived from the multi-taper method (MTM) spectrum and wavelet scalograms are quite different as well, and they vary from one solar cycle to another. The largest detected period in flaring ARs is 113± 1.6 days while we detected much longer periodicities (327± 13, 312 ± 11, and 256± 8 days) in the non-flaring AR profiles. No meaningful periodicities were detected in the MTM spectrum of flaring ARs exceeding 55± 0.7 days during Solar Cycles 22 and 24, while a 113± 1.3 days period was detected in flaring ARs of Solar Cycle 23. For the non-flaring ARs the largest detected period was only 31± 0.2 days for Cycle 22 and 72± 1.3 days for the current Cycle 24, while the largest measured period was 327± 13 days during Solar Cycle 23.

Case series in cognitive neuropsychology: promise, perils, and proper perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Rapp, Brenda

2011-10-01

Schwartz and Dell (2010) advocated for a major role for case series investigations in cognitive neuropsychology. They defined the key features of this approach and presented a number of arguments and examples illustrating the benefits of case series studies and their contribution to computational cognitive neuropsychology. In the Special Issue on "Case Series in Cognitive Neuropsychology" there are six commentaries on Schwartz and Dell as well as a response to the six commentaries by Dell and Schwartz (2011 this issue). In this paper, I provide a brief summary of the key points made in Schwartz and Dell, and I review the promise and perils of case series design as revealed by the six commentaries. I conclude by placing the set of papers within a broader perspective, providing some clarification of the historical record on case series and single-case approaches, raising some cautionary notes for case series studies and situating both case series and single-case approaches within the larger context of theory development in the cognitive sciences.

Case Series in Cognitive Neuropsychology: Promise, Perils and Proper Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Rapp, Brenda

2012-01-01

Schwartz & Dell (2010) advocated for a major role for case series investigations in cognitive neuropsychology. They defined the key features of this approach and presented a number of arguments and examples illustrating the benefits of case series studies and their contribution to computational cognitive neuropsychology. In the Special Issue on “Case Series in Cognitive Neuropsychology” there are six commentaries on Schwartz and Dell (2010) as well as a response to the six commentaries by Dell and Schwartz. In this paper, I provide a brief summary of the key points made in Schwartz and Dell (2010) and I review the promise and perils of case series design as revealed by the six commentaries. I conclude by placing the set of papers within a broader perspective, providing some clarification of the historical record on case series and single case approaches, raising some cautionary notes for case series studies and situating both case series and single case approaches within the larger context of theory development in the cognitive sciences. PMID:22746685

Size and series effects on the economics of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rouyer, J.L.; Marcetteau, P.; Nisan, S.

2001-01-01

This paper updates data and models concerning size and series effects on the economics of nuclear power plants. Size effect is the observation that, for a given technology, capital cost of a plant increases less rapidly than its capacity. The overall scaling exponent is derived from specific exponents for different plant items. It varies for industrial LWR and PHWR between 0.4 to 0.7. Series effect comprises two types of effects: a) fabrication in series of equipment, thus reducing unit cost with increased number of units; b) Increased efficiency through the feedback of experience obtained from the on-site realisation of a number of identical plants. Size and series effects are combined in the realisation of a full programme of a same standard model of nuclear power plants, for a given country or for several countries, in the same period of time (typically 10 years). Calculations have been performed to compare size and series effects for a 15000 MWe programme to be installed within 10 years, and reactor sizes varying from 600 MWe to 1500 MWe. The different options regarding the size of PWR standard model have also been compared on the basis of the least leveled electricity cost. The results of the calculations show that a standardised series of 1500 MWe appears presently the best solution in densely industrialized countries. In the long term, reactors of 1000 MWe, or less, (if new concepts sharply decrease unit cost per kW installed), may be preferred because of the associated large series effect. (authors)

On the Nodal Lines of Eisenstein Series on Schottky Surfaces

Science.gov (United States)

Jakobson, Dmitry; Naud, Frédéric

2017-04-01

On convex co-compact hyperbolic surfaces {X=Γ backslash H2}, we investigate the behavior of nodal curves of real valued Eisenstein series {F_λ(z,ξ)}, where {λ} is the spectral parameter, {ξ} the direction at infinity. Eisenstein series are (non-{L^2}) eigenfunctions of the Laplacian {Δ_X} satisfying {Δ_X F_λ=(1/4+λ^2)F_λ}. As {λ} goes to infinity (the high energy limit), we show that, for generic {ξ}, the number of intersections of nodal lines with any compact segment of geodesic grows like {λ}, up to multiplicative constants. Applications to the number of nodal domains inside the convex core of the surface are then derived.

High-voltage horizontal shaft squirrel cage type induction motor TOSMIGHTY{sub TM}-T98 series; Yokojiku koatsu kagogata yudo dendoki TOSMIGHTY{sub TM}-T98 series

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1999-03-01

T98 series developed as succeeding series of T90 for as short as 2 years expanded a standardization range from 450- 630 to 450-900 in frame number, and covered a power range up to 15,000kW in 4-pole motor base. The concept of T98 series is as follows: (1) ON TIME (rapid correspondence to requests, delivery time shortest in the world), (2) ON SPEC (security for customer`s demand quality, satisfaction of various international standards), and (3) ON PRICE (compactness, space saving and reasonable price by development of elementary technologies through joint research with the research division). This series is placed as strategic series for sales promotion through the existing electronic catalog (CD-ROM) and acquisition of further BASEEFA certifications. (translated by NEDO)

High-voltage horizontal shaft squirrel cage type induction motor TOSMIGHTY[sub TM]-T98 series. Yokojiku koatsu kagogata yudo dendoki TOSMIGHTY[sub TM]-T98 series

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1999-03-01

T98 series developed as succeeding series of T90 for as short as 2 years expanded a standardization range from 450- 630 to 450-900 in frame number, and covered a power range up to 15,000kW in 4-pole motor base. The concept of T98 series is as follows: (1) ON TIME (rapid correspondence to requests, delivery time shortest in the world), (2) ON SPEC (security for customer's demand quality, satisfaction of various international standards), and (3) ON PRICE (compactness, space saving and reasonable price by development of elementary technologies through joint research with the research division). This series is placed as strategic series for sales promotion through the existing electronic catalog (CD-ROM) and acquisition of further BASEEFA certifications. (translated by NEDO)

Constructing ordinal partition transition networks from multivariate time series.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jiayang; Zhou, Jie; Tang, Ming; Guo, Heng; Small, Michael; Zou, Yong

2017-08-10

A growing number of algorithms have been proposed to map a scalar time series into ordinal partition transition networks. However, most observable phenomena in the empirical sciences are of a multivariate nature. We construct ordinal partition transition networks for multivariate time series. This approach yields weighted directed networks representing the pattern transition properties of time series in velocity space, which hence provides dynamic insights of the underling system. Furthermore, we propose a measure of entropy to characterize ordinal partition transition dynamics, which is sensitive to capturing the possible local geometric changes of phase space trajectories. We demonstrate the applicability of pattern transition networks to capture phase coherence to non-coherence transitions, and to characterize paths to phase synchronizations. Therefore, we conclude that the ordinal partition transition network approach provides complementary insight to the traditional symbolic analysis of nonlinear multivariate time series.

On Sums of Numerical Series and Fourier Series

Science.gov (United States)

Pavao, H. Germano; de Oliveira, E. Capelas

2008-01-01

We discuss a class of trigonometric functions whose corresponding Fourier series, on a conveniently chosen interval, can be used to calculate several numerical series. Particular cases are presented and two recent results involving numerical series are recovered. (Contains 1 note.)

Random number generation based on digital differential chaos

KAUST Repository

Zidan, Mohammed A.; Radwan, Ahmed G.; Salama, Khaled N.

2012-01-01

In this paper, we present a fully digital differential chaos based random number generator. The output of the digital circuit is proved to be chaotic by calculating the output time series maximum Lyapunov exponent. We introduce a new post processing

Modelling road accidents: An approach using structural time series

Science.gov (United States)

Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

2014-09-01

In this paper, the trend of road accidents in Malaysia for the years 2001 until 2012 was modelled using a structural time series approach. The structural time series model was identified using a stepwise method, and the residuals for each model were tested. The best-fitted model was chosen based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and prediction error variance. In order to check the quality of the model, a data validation procedure was performed by predicting the monthly number of road accidents for the year 2012. Results indicate that the best specification of the structural time series model to represent road accidents is the local level with a seasonal model.

Unconditionally convergent series in the space C(Q)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basit, B.

1981-08-01

Let B be a Banach space and B* its dual Banach space. B contains csub(0) (B does not contain csub(0)) if B contains (does not contain) a subspace isomorphic to the space csub(0) of sequences of numbers tending to zero. The series Σsub(n=1)sup(infinity) xsub(n) of elements of B is weakly unconditionally convergent (w.u.c.) iff Σsub(n=1)sup(infinity)|x*(xsub(n))| 0 . Series of elements of C(Q) are considered here. Subspaces of C(Q) isomorphic to c 0 are constructed, and criteria for a series of elements of C(Q) to be w.u.c. or u.c. are given. Finally, an improved theorem of giving characterizations of the elements of subalgebras of C(Q) not containing c 0 is presented

Infinite series

CERN Document Server

Hirschman, Isidore Isaac

2014-01-01

This text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students presents a rigorous approach that also emphasizes applications. Encompassing more than the usual amount of material on the problems of computation with series, the treatment offers many applications, including those related to the theory of special functions. Numerous problems appear throughout the book.The first chapter introduces the elementary theory of infinite series, followed by a relatively complete exposition of the basic properties of Taylor series and Fourier series. Additional subjects include series of functions and the app

Estimation of system parameters in discrete dynamical systems from time series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palaniyandi, P.; Lakshmanan, M.

2005-01-01

We propose a simple method to estimate the parameters involved in discrete dynamical systems from time series. The method is based on the concept of controlling chaos by constant feedback. The major advantages of the method are that it needs a minimal number of time series data (either vector or scalar) and is applicable to dynamical systems of any dimension. The method also works extremely well even in the presence of noise in the time series. The method is specifically illustrated by means of logistic and Henon maps

Nonlinear solar cycle forecasting: theory and perspectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. L. Baranovski

2008-02-01

Full Text Available In this paper we develop a modern approach to solar cycle forecasting, based on the mathematical theory of nonlinear dynamics. We start from the design of a static curve fitting model for the experimental yearly sunspot number series, over a time scale of 306 years, starting from year 1700 and we establish a least-squares optimal pulse shape of a solar cycle. The cycle-to-cycle evolution of the parameters of the cycle shape displays different patterns, such as a Gleissberg cycle and a strong anomaly in the cycle evolution during the Dalton minimum. In a second step, we extract a chaotic mapping for the successive values of one of the key model parameters – the rate of the exponential growth-decrease of the solar activity during the n-th cycle. We examine piece-wise linear techniques for the approximation of the derived mapping and we provide its probabilistic analysis: calculation of the invariant distribution and autocorrelation function. We find analytical relationships for the sunspot maxima and minima, as well as their occurrence times, as functions of chaotic values of the above parameter. Based on a Lyapunov spectrum analysis of the embedded mapping, we finally establish a horizon of predictability for the method, which allows us to give the most probable forecasting of the upcoming solar cycle 24, with an expected peak height of 93±21 occurring in 2011/2012.

Layered Ensemble Architecture for Time Series Forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Md Mustafizur; Islam, Md Monirul; Murase, Kazuyuki; Yao, Xin

2016-01-01

Time series forecasting (TSF) has been widely used in many application areas such as science, engineering, and finance. The phenomena generating time series are usually unknown and information available for forecasting is only limited to the past values of the series. It is, therefore, necessary to use an appropriate number of past values, termed lag, for forecasting. This paper proposes a layered ensemble architecture (LEA) for TSF problems. Our LEA consists of two layers, each of which uses an ensemble of multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks. While the first ensemble layer tries to find an appropriate lag, the second ensemble layer employs the obtained lag for forecasting. Unlike most previous work on TSF, the proposed architecture considers both accuracy and diversity of the individual networks in constructing an ensemble. LEA trains different networks in the ensemble by using different training sets with an aim of maintaining diversity among the networks. However, it uses the appropriate lag and combines the best trained networks to construct the ensemble. This indicates LEAs emphasis on accuracy of the networks. The proposed architecture has been tested extensively on time series data of neural network (NN)3 and NN5 competitions. It has also been tested on several standard benchmark time series data. In terms of forecasting accuracy, our experimental results have revealed clearly that LEA is better than other ensemble and nonensemble methods.

Stochastic nature of series of waiting times

Science.gov (United States)

Anvari, Mehrnaz; Aghamohammadi, Cina; Dashti-Naserabadi, H.; Salehi, E.; Behjat, E.; Qorbani, M.; Khazaei Nezhad, M.; Zirak, M.; Hadjihosseini, Ali; Peinke, Joachim; Tabar, M. Reza Rahimi

2013-06-01

Although fluctuations in the waiting time series have been studied for a long time, some important issues such as its long-range memory and its stochastic features in the presence of nonstationarity have so far remained unstudied. Here we find that the “waiting times” series for a given increment level have long-range correlations with Hurst exponents belonging to the interval 1/2series has a short-range correlation, and then we study its stochastic nature using the Markovian method and determine the corresponding Kramers-Moyal coefficients. As an example, we analyze the velocity fluctuations in high Reynolds number turbulence and determine the level dependence of Markov time scales, as well as the drift and diffusion coefficients. We show that the waiting time distributions exhibit power law tails, and we were able to model the distribution with a continuous time random walk.

Correlation between ionospheric potential and the intensity of cosmic rays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyerott, R.E.; Reagan, J.B.; Evans, J.E.

1983-01-01

Ionospheric potential variations with a period of about 10 yr have been observed in the data that have been acquired to date. Previous studies have shown that these variations appear to be correlated inversely with sunspot number and with solar wind velocity, and directly with cosmic ray intensity. Since the cosmic ray intensity is inversely correlated with sunspot number and solar wind velocity, these correlations all suggest that the long period variations are of solar origin. In this report it is shown that, over the limited period for which ionospheric potential measurements exist, the long period variations are better correlated with the aerosol burden injected into the stratosphere by large volcanic eruptions than with the intensity of cosmic rays. This result indicates that the long period variations in ionospheric potential are of terrestrial rather than solar origin. 20 references

Forecasting with nonlinear time series models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kock, Anders Bredahl; Teräsvirta, Timo

In this paper, nonlinear models are restricted to mean nonlinear parametric models. Several such models popular in time series econo- metrics are presented and some of their properties discussed. This in- cludes two models based on universal approximators: the Kolmogorov- Gabor polynomial model...... applied to economic fore- casting problems, is briefly highlighted. A number of large published studies comparing macroeconomic forecasts obtained using different time series models are discussed, and the paper also contains a small simulation study comparing recursive and direct forecasts in a partic...... and two versions of a simple artificial neural network model. Techniques for generating multi-period forecasts from nonlinear models recursively are considered, and the direct (non-recursive) method for this purpose is mentioned as well. Forecasting with com- plex dynamic systems, albeit less frequently...

Efficient Algorithms for Segmentation of Item-Set Time Series

Science.gov (United States)

Chundi, Parvathi; Rosenkrantz, Daniel J.

We propose a special type of time series, which we call an item-set time series, to facilitate the temporal analysis of software version histories, email logs, stock market data, etc. In an item-set time series, each observed data value is a set of discrete items. We formalize the concept of an item-set time series and present efficient algorithms for segmenting a given item-set time series. Segmentation of a time series partitions the time series into a sequence of segments where each segment is constructed by combining consecutive time points of the time series. Each segment is associated with an item set that is computed from the item sets of the time points in that segment, using a function which we call a measure function. We then define a concept called the segment difference, which measures the difference between the item set of a segment and the item sets of the time points in that segment. The segment difference values are required to construct an optimal segmentation of the time series. We describe novel and efficient algorithms to compute segment difference values for each of the measure functions described in the paper. We outline a dynamic programming based scheme to construct an optimal segmentation of the given item-set time series. We use the item-set time series segmentation techniques to analyze the temporal content of three different data sets—Enron email, stock market data, and a synthetic data set. The experimental results show that an optimal segmentation of item-set time series data captures much more temporal content than a segmentation constructed based on the number of time points in each segment, without examining the item set data at the time points, and can be used to analyze different types of temporal data.

Signals from the planets, via the Sun to the Earth

Science.gov (United States)

Solheim, J.-E.

2013-12-01

The best method for identification of planetary forcing of the Earth's climate is to investigate periodic variations in climate time series. Some natural frequencies in the Earth climate system seem to be synchronized to planetary cycles, and amplified to a level of detection. The response by the Earth depends on location, and in global averaged series, some planetary signals may be below detection. Comparing sea level rise with sunspot variations, we find phase variations, and even a phase reversal. A periodogram of the global temperature shows that the Earth amplifies other periods than observed in sunspots. A particular case is that the Earth amplifies the 22 yr Hale period, and not the 11 yr Schwabe period. This may be explained by alternating peak or plateau appearance of cosmic ray counts. Among longer periods, the Earth amplifies the 60 yr planetary period and keeps the phase during centennials. The recent global warming may be interpreted as a rising branch of a millennium cycle, identified in ice cores and sediments and also recorded in history. This cycle peaks in the second half of this century, and then a 500 yr cooling trend will start. An expected solar grand minimum due to a 200 yr cycle will introduce additional cooling in the first part of this century.

The number of subjects per variable required in linear regression analyses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P.C. Austin (Peter); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout)

2015-01-01

textabstractObjectives To determine the number of independent variables that can be included in a linear regression model. Study Design and Setting We used a series of Monte Carlo simulations to examine the impact of the number of subjects per variable (SPV) on the accuracy of estimated regression

Mapping number to space in the two hemispheres of the avian brain.

Science.gov (United States)

Rugani, Rosa; Vallortigara, Giorgio; Regolin, Lucia

2016-09-01

Pre-verbal infants and non-human animals associate small numbers with the left space and large numbers with the right space. Birds and primates, trained to identify a given position in a sagittal series of identical positions, whenever required to respond on a left/right oriented series, referred the given position starting from the left end. Here, we extended this evidence by selectively investigating the role of either cerebral hemisphere, using the temporary monocular occlusion technique. In birds, lacking the corpus callosum, visual input is fed mainly to the contralateral hemisphere. We trained 4-day-old chicks to identify the 4th element in a sagittal series of 10 identical elements. At test, the series was identical but left/right oriented. Test was conducted in right monocular, left monocular or binocular condition of vision. Right monocular chicks pecked at the 4th right element; left monocular and binocular chicks pecked at the 4th left element. Data on monocular chicks demonstrate that both hemispheres deal with an ordinal (sequential) task. Data on binocular chicks indicate that the left bias is linked to a right hemisphere dominance, that allocates the attention toward the left hemispace. This constitutes a first step towards understanding the neural basis of number space mapping. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mahler Measure Variations, Eisenstein Series and Instanton Expansions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stienstra, J.

2007-01-01

This paper points at an intriguing inverse function relation with on the one hand the coefficients of the Eisenstein series in Rodriguez Villegas’ paper on “Modular Mahler Measures” and on the other hand the instanton numbers in papers on “Non-Critical Strings” by Klemm- Mayr-Vafa and

Detection and attribution of abrupt climate changes in the last one hundred years

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Wen; Wan Shiquan

2008-01-01

Based on physical backgrounds, the four time series of the Guliya (Tibetan plateau) ice core (GIC) δ 18 O, and three natural factors, i.e. the rotation rate of earth, sunspots, and El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals, are decomposed into two hierarchies, i.e. more and less than 10-year hierarchies respectively, and then the running t-test is used to reanalyse the data before and after filtering with the purpose of investigating the contribution of natural factors to the abrupt climate changes in the last one hundred years. The results show that the GIC δ 18 O evolved with a quasi-period of 7–9 years, and the abrupt climate changes in the early 1960s and in the period from the end of the 1970s to the beginning of the 1980s resulted from the joint effect of the two hierarchies, in other words, the two interdecadal abrupt changes of climate in the last one hundred years were global. The interannual variations of ENSO and sunspots were the important triggering factors for the abrupt climate changes in the last one hundred years. At the same time, the method of Information Transfer (IT) is employed to estimate the contributions of ENSO signals and sunspots activities to the abrupt climate changes, and it is found that the contribution of the interannual variation of ENSO signals is relatively large

Magnetic Field Emission Comparison for Series-Parallel and Series-Series Wireless Power Transfer to Vehicles – PART 2/2

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Batra, Tushar; Schaltz, Erik

2014-01-01

Series-series and series-parallel topologies are the most favored topologies for design of wireless power transfer system for vehicle applications. The series-series topology has the advantage of reflecting only the resistive part on the primary side. On the other hand, the current source output...... characteristics of the series-parallel topology are more suited for the battery of the vehicle. This paper compares the two topologies in terms of magnetic emissions to the surroundings for the same input power, primary current, quality factor and inductors. Theoretical and simulation results show that the series...

a novel two – factor high order fuzzy time series with applications to ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

HOD

objectively with multiple – factor fuzzy time series, recurrent number of fuzzy relationships, and assigning weights to elements of fuzzy forecasting rules. In this paper, a novel two – factor high – order fuzzy time series forecasting method based on fuzzy C-means clustering and particle swarm optimization is proposed to ...

A method for summing nonalternating asymptotic series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kazakov, D.I.

1980-01-01

A method for reconstructing a function from its nonalternating asymptotic series is proposed. It can also be applied when only a limited number of coefficients and their high order asymptotic behaviour are known. The method is illustrated by examples of the ordinary simple integral simulating a functional integral in a theory with degenerate minimum and of the double-well unharmonic oscillator

The solar activity cycle physical causes and consequences

CERN Document Server

Hudson, Hugh; Petrovay, Kristóf; Steiger, Rudolf

2015-01-01

A collection of papers edited by four experts in the field, this book sets out to describe the way solar activity is manifested in observations of the solar interior, the photosphere, the chromosphere, the corona and the heliosphere. The 11-year solar activity cycle, more generally known as the sunspot cycle, is a fundamental property of the Sun.  This phenomenon is the generation and evolution of magnetic fields in the Sun’s convection zone, the photosphere.  It is only by the careful enumeration and description of the phenomena and their variations that one can clarify their interdependences.   The sunspot cycle has been tracked back about four centuries, and it has been recognized that to make this data set a really useful tool in understanding how the activity cycle works and how it can be predicted, a very careful and detailed effort is needed to generate sunspot numbers.  This book deals with this topic, together with several others that present related phenomena that all indicate the physical pr...

Serie 2, no. 4, EN: September de 2017

OpenAIRE

Millenium, Millenium

2017-01-01

Millenium journal reaches the end of the first year of series 2, with this number 4. September 2017 marks the effort of a new editorial policy that is translated into the publication of four numbers with articles simultaneously in Portuguese andEnglish, whose scientific quality was rigorously attested by blind peer review and whose authors are external to the IPV.Two more issues were also published as Special Edition. This issue maintains the objective of a multidisciplinary and transdiscipli...

Grammar-based feature generation for time-series prediction

CERN Document Server

De Silva, Anthony Mihirana

2015-01-01

This book proposes a novel approach for time-series prediction using machine learning techniques with automatic feature generation. Application of machine learning techniques to predict time-series continues to attract considerable attention due to the difficulty of the prediction problems compounded by the non-linear and non-stationary nature of the real world time-series. The performance of machine learning techniques, among other things, depends on suitable engineering of features. This book proposes a systematic way for generating suitable features using context-free grammar. A number of feature selection criteria are investigated and a hybrid feature generation and selection algorithm using grammatical evolution is proposed. The book contains graphical illustrations to explain the feature generation process. The proposed approaches are demonstrated by predicting the closing price of major stock market indices, peak electricity load and net hourly foreign exchange client trade volume. The proposed method ...

Transition edge sensor series array bolometer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beyer, J, E-mail: joern.beyer@ptb.d [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB), Abbestrasse 2-12, D-10587 Berlin (Germany)

2010-10-15

A transition edge sensor series array (TES-SA) is an array of identical TESs that are connected in series by low-inductance superconducting wiring. The array elements are equally and well thermally coupled to the absorber and respond to changes in the absorber temperature in synchronization. The TES-SA total resistance increases compared to a single TES while the shape of the superconducting transition is preserved. We are developing a TES-SA with a large number, hundreds to thousands, of array elements with the goal of enabling the readout of a TES-based bolometer operated at 4.2 K with a semiconductor-based amplifier located at room temperature. The noise and dynamic performance of a TES-SA bolometer based on a niobium/aluminum bilayer is analyzed. It is shown that stable readout of the bolometer with a low-noise transimpedance amplifier is feasible.

Transition edge sensor series array bolometer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beyer, J

2010-01-01

A transition edge sensor series array (TES-SA) is an array of identical TESs that are connected in series by low-inductance superconducting wiring. The array elements are equally and well thermally coupled to the absorber and respond to changes in the absorber temperature in synchronization. The TES-SA total resistance increases compared to a single TES while the shape of the superconducting transition is preserved. We are developing a TES-SA with a large number, hundreds to thousands, of array elements with the goal of enabling the readout of a TES-based bolometer operated at 4.2 K with a semiconductor-based amplifier located at room temperature. The noise and dynamic performance of a TES-SA bolometer based on a niobium/aluminum bilayer is analyzed. It is shown that stable readout of the bolometer with a low-noise transimpedance amplifier is feasible.

Building Chaotic Model From Incomplete Time Series

Science.gov (United States)

Siek, Michael; Solomatine, Dimitri

2010-05-01

This paper presents a number of novel techniques for building a predictive chaotic model from incomplete time series. A predictive chaotic model is built by reconstructing the time-delayed phase space from observed time series and the prediction is made by a global model or adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbors found in the reconstructed phase space. In general, the building of any data-driven models depends on the completeness and quality of the data itself. However, the completeness of the data availability can not always be guaranteed since the measurement or data transmission is intermittently not working properly due to some reasons. We propose two main solutions dealing with incomplete time series: using imputing and non-imputing methods. For imputing methods, we utilized the interpolation methods (weighted sum of linear interpolations, Bayesian principle component analysis and cubic spline interpolation) and predictive models (neural network, kernel machine, chaotic model) for estimating the missing values. After imputing the missing values, the phase space reconstruction and chaotic model prediction are executed as a standard procedure. For non-imputing methods, we reconstructed the time-delayed phase space from observed time series with missing values. This reconstruction results in non-continuous trajectories. However, the local model prediction can still be made from the other dynamical neighbors reconstructed from non-missing values. We implemented and tested these methods to construct a chaotic model for predicting storm surges at Hoek van Holland as the entrance of Rotterdam Port. The hourly surge time series is available for duration of 1990-1996. For measuring the performance of the proposed methods, a synthetic time series with missing values generated by a particular random variable to the original (complete) time series is utilized. There exist two main performance measures used in this work: (1) error measures between the actual

TWO NOVEL PARAMETERS TO EVALUATE THE GLOBAL COMPLEXITY OF THE SUN'S MAGNETIC FIELD AND TRACK THE SOLAR CYCLE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhao, L.; Landi, E. [Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48105 (United States); Gibson, S. E., E-mail: lzh@umich.edu [NCAR/HAO, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000 (United States)

2013-08-20

Since the unusually prolonged and weak solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 (2008-2010), the sunspot number is smaller and the overall morphology of the Sun's magnetic field is more complicated (i.e., less of a dipole component and more of a tilted current sheet) compared with the same minimum and ascending phases of the previous cycle. Nearly 13 yr after the last solar maximum ({approx}2000), the monthly sunspot number is currently only at half the highest value of the past cycle's maximum, whereas the polar magnetic field of the Sun is reversing (north pole first). These circumstances make it timely to consider alternatives to the sunspot number for tracking the Sun's magnetic cycle and measuring its complexity. In this study, we introduce two novel parameters, the standard deviation (SD) of the latitude of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) and the integrated slope (SL) of the HCS, to evaluate the complexity of the Sun's magnetic field and track the solar cycle. SD and SL are obtained from the magnetic synoptic maps calculated by a potential field source surface model. We find that SD and SL are sensitive to the complexity of the HCS: (1) they have low values when the HCS is flat at solar minimum, and high values when the HCS is highly tilted at solar maximum; (2) they respond to the topology of the HCS differently, as a higher SD value indicates that a larger part of the HCS extends to higher latitude, while a higher SL value implies that the HCS is wavier; (3) they are good indicators of magnetically anomalous cycles. Based on the comparison between SD and SL with the normalized sunspot number in the most recent four solar cycles, we find that in 2011 the solar magnetic field had attained a similar complexity as compared to the previous maxima. In addition, in the ascending phase of cycle 24, SD and SL in the northern hemisphere were on the average much greater than in the southern hemisphere, indicating a more tilted and wavier

A multiphase series-resonant converter with a reduced number of thyristors and common grounds for inputs and outputs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huisman, H.

1993-01-01

Multiphase series-resonant (SR) power converters provide a flexible way to transform power between a utility grid and a multiphase load or source. The current implementations all suffer from a high component count, which makes the use of these converters unattractive from an economical point of

Data imputation analysis for Cosmic Rays time series

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandes, R. C.; Lucio, P. S.; Fernandez, J. H.

2017-05-01

The occurrence of missing data concerning Galactic Cosmic Rays time series (GCR) is inevitable since loss of data is due to mechanical and human failure or technical problems and different periods of operation of GCR stations. The aim of this study was to perform multiple dataset imputation in order to depict the observational dataset. The study has used the monthly time series of GCR Climax (CLMX) and Roma (ROME) from 1960 to 2004 to simulate scenarios of 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80% and 90% of missing data compared to observed ROME series, with 50 replicates. Then, the CLMX station as a proxy for allocation of these scenarios was used. Three different methods for monthly dataset imputation were selected: AMÉLIA II - runs the bootstrap Expectation Maximization algorithm, MICE - runs an algorithm via Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations and MTSDI - an Expectation Maximization algorithm-based method for imputation of missing values in multivariate normal time series. The synthetic time series compared with the observed ROME series has also been evaluated using several skill measures as such as RMSE, NRMSE, Agreement Index, R, R2, F-test and t-test. The results showed that for CLMX and ROME, the R2 and R statistics were equal to 0.98 and 0.96, respectively. It was observed that increases in the number of gaps generate loss of quality of the time series. Data imputation was more efficient with MTSDI method, with negligible errors and best skill coefficients. The results suggest a limit of about 60% of missing data for imputation, for monthly averages, no more than this. It is noteworthy that CLMX, ROME and KIEL stations present no missing data in the target period. This methodology allowed reconstructing 43 time series.

Monolithic blue LED series arrays for high-voltage AC operation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ao, Jin-Ping [Satellite Venture Business Laboratory, University of Tokushima, Tokushima 770-8506 (Japan); Sato, Hisao; Mizobuchi, Takashi; Morioka, Kenji; Kawano, Shunsuke; Muramoto, Yoshihiko; Sato, Daisuke; Sakai, Shiro [Nitride Semiconductor Co. Ltd., Naruto, Tokushima 771-0360 (Japan); Lee, Young-Bae; Ohno, Yasuo [Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Tokushima, Tokushima 770-8506 (Japan)

2002-12-16

Design and fabrication of monolithic blue LED series arrays that can be operated under high ac voltage are described. Several LEDs, such as 3, 7, and 20, are connected in series and in parallel to meet ac operation. The chip size of a single device is 150 {mu}m x 120 {mu}m and the total size is 1.1 mm x 1 mm for a 40(20+20) LED array. Deep dry etching was performed as device isolation. Two-layer interconnection and air bridge are utilized to connect the devices in an array. The monolithic series array exhibit the expected operation function under dc and ac bias. The output power and forward voltage are almost proportional to LED numbers connected in series. On-wafer measurement shows that the output power is 40 mW for 40(20+20) LED array under ac 72 V. (Abstract Copyright [2002], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

Reconstruction of ensembles of coupled time-delay systems from time series.

Science.gov (United States)

Sysoev, I V; Prokhorov, M D; Ponomarenko, V I; Bezruchko, B P

2014-06-01

We propose a method to recover from time series the parameters of coupled time-delay systems and the architecture of couplings between them. The method is based on a reconstruction of model delay-differential equations and estimation of statistical significance of couplings. It can be applied to networks composed of nonidentical nodes with an arbitrary number of unidirectional and bidirectional couplings. We test our method on chaotic and periodic time series produced by model equations of ensembles of diffusively coupled time-delay systems in the presence of noise, and apply it to experimental time series obtained from electronic oscillators with delayed feedback coupled by resistors.

Time Series Decomposition into Oscillation Components and Phase Estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Matsuda, Takeru; Komaki, Fumiyasu

2017-02-01

Many time series are naturally considered as a superposition of several oscillation components. For example, electroencephalogram (EEG) time series include oscillation components such as alpha, beta, and gamma. We propose a method for decomposing time series into such oscillation components using state-space models. Based on the concept of random frequency modulation, gaussian linear state-space models for oscillation components are developed. In this model, the frequency of an oscillator fluctuates by noise. Time series decomposition is accomplished by this model like the Bayesian seasonal adjustment method. Since the model parameters are estimated from data by the empirical Bayes' method, the amplitudes and the frequencies of oscillation components are determined in a data-driven manner. Also, the appropriate number of oscillation components is determined with the Akaike information criterion (AIC). In this way, the proposed method provides a natural decomposition of the given time series into oscillation components. In neuroscience, the phase of neural time series plays an important role in neural information processing. The proposed method can be used to estimate the phase of each oscillation component and has several advantages over a conventional method based on the Hilbert transform. Thus, the proposed method enables an investigation of the phase dynamics of time series. Numerical results show that the proposed method succeeds in extracting intermittent oscillations like ripples and detecting the phase reset phenomena. We apply the proposed method to real data from various fields such as astronomy, ecology, tidology, and neuroscience.

Mapping Crop Cycles in China Using MODIS-EVI Time Series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Le Li

2014-03-01

Full Text Available As the Earth’s population continues to grow and demand for food increases, the need for improved and timely information related to the properties and dynamics of global agricultural systems is becoming increasingly important. Global land cover maps derived from satellite data provide indispensable information regarding the geographic distribution and areal extent of global croplands. However, land use information, such as cropping intensity (defined here as the number of cropping cycles per year, is not routinely available over large areas because mapping this information from remote sensing is challenging. In this study, we present a simple but efficient algorithm for automated mapping of cropping intensity based on data from NASA’s (NASA: The National Aeronautics and Space Administration MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS. The proposed algorithm first applies an adaptive Savitzky-Golay filter to smooth Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI time series derived from MODIS surface reflectance data. It then uses an iterative moving-window methodology to identify cropping cycles from the smoothed EVI time series. Comparison of results from our algorithm with national survey data at both the provincial and prefectural level in China show that the algorithm provides estimates of gross sown area that agree well with inventory data. Accuracy assessment comparing visually interpreted time series with algorithm results for a random sample of agricultural areas in China indicates an overall accuracy of 91.0% for three classes defined based on the number of cycles observed in EVI time series. The algorithm therefore appears to provide a straightforward and efficient method for mapping cropping intensity from MODIS time series data.

Magnetic Field Emission Comparison for Series-Parallel and Series-Series Wireless Power Transfer to Vehicles – PART 1/2

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Batra, Tushar; Schaltz, Erik

2014-01-01

Resonant circuits of wireless power transfer system can be designed in four possible ways by placing the primary and secondary capacitor in a series or parallel order with respect to the corresponding inductor. The two topologies series-parallel and series-series under investigation have been...... already compared in terms of their output behavior (current or voltage source) and reflection of the secondary impedance on the primary side. In this paper it is shown that for the same power rating series-parallel topology emits lesser magnetic fields to the surroundings than its series...

Using forbidden ordinal patterns to detect determinism in irregularly sampled time series.

Science.gov (United States)

Kulp, C W; Chobot, J M; Niskala, B J; Needhammer, C J

2016-02-01

It is known that when symbolizing a time series into ordinal patterns using the Bandt-Pompe (BP) methodology, there will be ordinal patterns called forbidden patterns that do not occur in a deterministic series. The existence of forbidden patterns can be used to identify deterministic dynamics. In this paper, the ability to use forbidden patterns to detect determinism in irregularly sampled time series is tested on data generated from a continuous model system. The study is done in three parts. First, the effects of sampling time on the number of forbidden patterns are studied on regularly sampled time series. The next two parts focus on two types of irregular-sampling, missing data and timing jitter. It is shown that forbidden patterns can be used to detect determinism in irregularly sampled time series for low degrees of sampling irregularity (as defined in the paper). In addition, comments are made about the appropriateness of using the BP methodology to symbolize irregularly sampled time series.

Multiresolution analysis of Bursa Malaysia KLCI time series

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Dghais, Amel Abdoullah Ahmed

2017-05-01

In general, a time series is simply a sequence of numbers collected at regular intervals over a period. Financial time series data processing is concerned with the theory and practice of processing asset price over time, such as currency, commodity data, and stock market data. The primary aim of this study is to understand the fundamental characteristics of selected financial time series by using the time as well as the frequency domain analysis. After that prediction can be executed for the desired system for in sample forecasting. In this study, multiresolution analysis which the assist of discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) and maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) will be used to pinpoint special characteristics of Bursa Malaysia KLCI (Kuala Lumpur Composite Index) daily closing prices and return values. In addition, further case study discussions include the modeling of Bursa Malaysia KLCI using linear ARIMA with wavelets to address how multiresolution approach improves fitting and forecasting results.

On the irrationality of Ramanujan's mock theta functions and other q-series at an infinite number of points

OpenAIRE

Mingarelli, Angelo B.

2007-01-01

We show that all of Ramanujan's mock theta functions of order 3, Watson's three additional mock theta functions of order 3, the Rogers-Ramanujan q-series, and 6 mock theta functions of order 5 take on irrational values at the points q=\\pm 1/2,\\pm 1/3,\\pm 1/4,...

Permutation entropy of finite-length white-noise time series.

Science.gov (United States)

Little, Douglas J; Kane, Deb M

2016-08-01

Permutation entropy (PE) is commonly used to discriminate complex structure from white noise in a time series. While the PE of white noise is well understood in the long time-series limit, analysis in the general case is currently lacking. Here the expectation value and variance of white-noise PE are derived as functions of the number of ordinal pattern trials, N, and the embedding dimension, D. It is demonstrated that the probability distribution of the white-noise PE converges to a χ^{2} distribution with D!-1 degrees of freedom as N becomes large. It is further demonstrated that the PE variance for an arbitrary time series can be estimated as the variance of a related metric, the Kullback-Leibler entropy (KLE), allowing the qualitative N≫D! condition to be recast as a quantitative estimate of the N required to achieve a desired PE calculation precision. Application of this theory to statistical inference is demonstrated in the case of an experimentally obtained noise series, where the probability of obtaining the observed PE value was calculated assuming a white-noise time series. Standard statistical inference can be used to draw conclusions whether the white-noise null hypothesis can be accepted or rejected. This methodology can be applied to other null hypotheses, such as discriminating whether two time series are generated from different complex system states.

Products of multiple Fourier series with application to the multiblade transformation

Science.gov (United States)

Kunz, D. L.

1981-01-01

A relatively simple and systematic method for forming the products of multiple Fourier series using tensor like operations is demonstrated. This symbolic multiplication can be performed for any arbitrary number of series, and the coefficients of a set of linear differential equations with periodic coefficients from a rotating coordinate system to a nonrotating system is also demonstrated. It is shown that using Fourier operations to perform this transformation make it easily understood, simple to apply, and generally applicable.

Effective Summation and Interpolation of Series by Self-Similar Root Approximants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon Gluzman

2015-06-01

Full Text Available We describe a simple analytical method for effective summation of series, including divergent series. The method is based on self-similar approximation theory resulting in self-similar root approximants. The method is shown to be general and applicable to different problems, as is illustrated by a number of examples. The accuracy of the method is not worse, and in many cases better, than that of Padé approximants, when the latter can be defined.

Performance of Artificial Intelligence Workloads on the Intel Core 2 Duo Series Desktop Processors

OpenAIRE

Abdul Kareem PARCHUR; Kuppangari Krishna RAO; Fazal NOORBASHA; Ram Asaray SINGH

2010-01-01

As the processor architecture becomes more advanced, Intel introduced its Intel Core 2 Duo series processors. Performance impact on Intel Core 2 Duo processors are analyzed using SPEC CPU INT 2006 performance numbers. This paper studied the behavior of Artificial Intelligence (AI) benchmarks on Intel Core 2 Duo series processors. Moreover, we estimated the task completion time (TCT) @1 GHz, @2 GHz and @3 GHz Intel Core 2 Duo series processors frequency. Our results show the performance scalab...

Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. N. Livina

2010-02-01

Full Text Available We develop and apply a new statistical method of potential analysis for detecting the number of states of a geophysical system, from its recorded time series. Estimation of the degree of a polynomial potential allows us to derive the number of potential wells in a system. The method correctly detects changes in the number of wells in artificial data. In ice-core proxy records of Greenland paleotemperature, a reduction in the number of climate states from two to one is detected sometime prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM, 23–19 kyr BP. This result is also found in analysis of Greenland Ca data. The bifurcation can be interpreted as loss of stability of the warm interstadial state of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO events. The proposed method can be applied to a wide range of geophysical time series exhibiting bifurcations.

Programmable pulse series generator for NMR relaxometer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stolbunov, R.N.; Chichikov, S.A.; Lundin, A.G.

2005-01-01

Paper describes a pulse series generator for NMR relaxometer. The operation mode is set on the basis of the PC program by the PCI bus in the internal memory. The design is based on two Altera Company MAX7000S and Cyclone family microcircuits using the Qartus II 4.0 software. The basic parameters are as follows: pulse minimum length - 50 ns, time resolution - 10 ns, pulse maximum number - 1024, number of controlled output channels - 8. The designed device as a part of the NMR hardware-software system enables to record, to process and to store the experiment results in the form of electronic document [ru

Banking and Financial Services Series. Duty Task List.

Science.gov (United States)

Oklahoma State Dept. of Vocational and Technical Education, Stillwater. Curriculum and Instructional Materials Center.

This document contains the occupational duty/task lists for five occupations in the banking and financial services series. Each occupation is divided into seven or eight duties. A separate page for each duty in the occupation lists the tasks in that duty along with its code number and columns to indicate whether that particular duty has been…

Time domain series system definition and gear set reliability modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xie, Liyang; Wu, Ningxiang; Qian, Wenxue

2016-01-01

Time-dependent multi-configuration is a typical feature for mechanical systems such as gear trains and chain drives. As a series system, a gear train is distinct from a traditional series system, such as a chain, in load transmission path, system-component relationship, system functioning manner, as well as time-dependent system configuration. Firstly, the present paper defines time-domain series system to which the traditional series system reliability model is not adequate. Then, system specific reliability modeling technique is proposed for gear sets, including component (tooth) and subsystem (tooth-pair) load history description, material priori/posterior strength expression, time-dependent and system specific load-strength interference analysis, as well as statistically dependent failure events treatment. Consequently, several system reliability models are developed for gear sets with different tooth numbers in the scenario of tooth root material ultimate tensile strength failure. The application of the models is discussed in the last part, and the differences between the system specific reliability model and the traditional series system reliability model are illustrated by virtue of several numerical examples. - Highlights: • A new type of series system, i.e. time-domain multi-configuration series system is defined, that is of great significance to reliability modeling. • Multi-level statistical analysis based reliability modeling method is presented for gear transmission system. • Several system specific reliability models are established for gear set reliability estimation. • The differences between the traditional series system reliability model and the new model are illustrated.

Drought over Seoul and Its Association with Solar Cycles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jong-Hyeok Park

2013-12-01

Full Text Available We have investigated drought periodicities occurred in Seoul to find out any indication of relationship between drought in Korea and solar activities. It is motivated, in view of solar-terrestrial connection, to search for an example of extreme weather condition controlled by solar activity. The periodicity of drought in Seoul has been re-examined using the wavelet transform technique as the consensus is not achieved yet. The reason we have chosen Seoul is because daily precipitation was recorded for longer than 200 years, which meets our requirement that analyses of drought frequency demand long-term historical data to ensure reliable estimates. We have examined three types of time series of the Effective Drought Index (EDI. We have directly analyzed EDI time series in the first place. And we have constructed and analyzed time series of histogram in which the number of days whose EDI is less than -1.5 for a given month of the year is given as a function of time, and one in which the number of occasions where EDI values of three consecutive days are all less than -1.5 is given as a function of time. All the time series data sets we analyzed are periodic. Apart from the annual cycle due to seasonal variations, periodicities shorter than the 11 year sunspot cycle, ~ 3, ~ 4, ~ 6 years, have been confirmed. Periodicities to which theses short periodicities (shorter than Hale period may be corresponding are not yet known. Longer periodicities possibly related to Gleissberg cycles, ~ 55, ~ 120 years, can be also seen. However, periodicity comparable to the 11 year solar cycle seems absent in both EDI and the constructed data sets.

The evolution of flaring and non-flaring active regions

Science.gov (United States)

Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V.; Sahin, S.; Sarp, V.; Obridko, V.; Ozguc, A.; Rozelot, J. P.

2018-06-01

According to the modified Zurich classification, sunspot groups are classified into seven different classes (A, B, C, D, E, F and H) based on their morphology and evolution. In this classification, classes A and B, which are small groups, describe the beginning of sunspot evolution, while classes D, E and F describe the large and evolved groups. Class C describes the middle phase of sunspot evolution and the class H describes the end of sunspot evolution. Here, we compare the lifetime and temporal evolution of flaring and non-flaring active regions (ARs), and the flaring effect on ARs in these groups in detail for the last two solar cycles (1996 through 2016). Our main findings are as follows: (i) Flaring sunspot groups have longer lifetimes than non-flaring ones. (ii) Most of the class A, B and C flaring ARs rapidly evolve to higher classes, while this is not applicable for non-flaring ARs. More than 50 per cent of the flaring A, B and C groups changed morphologically, while the remaining D, E, F and H groups did not change remarkably after the flare activity. (iii) 75 per cent of all flaring sunspot groups are large and complex. (iv) There is a significant increase in the sunspot group area in classes A, B, C, D and H after flaring activity. In contrast, the sunspot group area of classes E and F decreased. The sunspot counts of classes D, E and F decreased as well, while classes A, B, C and H showed an increase.

Non-parametric characterization of long-term rainfall time series

Science.gov (United States)

Tiwari, Harinarayan; Pandey, Brij Kishor

2018-03-01

The statistical study of rainfall time series is one of the approaches for efficient hydrological system design. Identifying, and characterizing long-term rainfall time series could aid in improving hydrological systems forecasting. In the present study, eventual statistics was applied for the long-term (1851-2006) rainfall time series under seven meteorological regions of India. Linear trend analysis was carried out using Mann-Kendall test for the observed rainfall series. The observed trend using the above-mentioned approach has been ascertained using the innovative trend analysis method. Innovative trend analysis has been found to be a strong tool to detect the general trend of rainfall time series. Sequential Mann-Kendall test has also been carried out to examine nonlinear trends of the series. The partial sum of cumulative deviation test is also found to be suitable to detect the nonlinear trend. Innovative trend analysis, sequential Mann-Kendall test and partial cumulative deviation test have potential to detect the general as well as nonlinear trend for the rainfall time series. Annual rainfall analysis suggests that the maximum changes in mean rainfall is 11.53% for West Peninsular India, whereas the maximum fall in mean rainfall is 7.8% for the North Mountainous Indian region. The innovative trend analysis method is also capable of finding the number of change point available in the time series. Additionally, we have performed von Neumann ratio test and cumulative deviation test to estimate the departure from homogeneity. Singular spectrum analysis has been applied in this study to evaluate the order of departure from homogeneity in the rainfall time series. Monsoon season (JS) of North Mountainous India and West Peninsular India zones has higher departure from homogeneity and singular spectrum analysis shows the results to be in coherence with the same.

Mesosternal bristle number in a cosmopolitan drosophilid: an X ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

RESEARCH ARTICLE. Mesosternal ... Going down the microchaetae series, we find, after a gap, a pair of fairly .... phenotype can be regarded as a function of its liability (i.e. .... Developmental map of mesosternal bristle number es- ..... mediate phenotype (1-1) indicating a codominant effect. .... quantitative genetical theory.

Connecting Neural Coding to Number Cognition: A Computational Account

Science.gov (United States)

Prather, Richard W.

2012-01-01

The current study presents a series of computational simulations that demonstrate how the neural coding of numerical magnitude may influence number cognition and development. This includes behavioral phenomena cataloged in cognitive literature such as the development of numerical estimation and operational momentum. Though neural research has…

RankExplorer: Visualization of Ranking Changes in Large Time Series Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Conglei; Cui, Weiwei; Liu, Shixia; Xu, Panpan; Chen, Wei; Qu, Huamin

2012-12-01

For many applications involving time series data, people are often interested in the changes of item values over time as well as their ranking changes. For example, people search many words via search engines like Google and Bing every day. Analysts are interested in both the absolute searching number for each word as well as their relative rankings. Both sets of statistics may change over time. For very large time series data with thousands of items, how to visually present ranking changes is an interesting challenge. In this paper, we propose RankExplorer, a novel visualization method based on ThemeRiver to reveal the ranking changes. Our method consists of four major components: 1) a segmentation method which partitions a large set of time series curves into a manageable number of ranking categories; 2) an extended ThemeRiver view with embedded color bars and changing glyphs to show the evolution of aggregation values related to each ranking category over time as well as the content changes in each ranking category; 3) a trend curve to show the degree of ranking changes over time; 4) rich user interactions to support interactive exploration of ranking changes. We have applied our method to some real time series data and the case studies demonstrate that our method can reveal the underlying patterns related to ranking changes which might otherwise be obscured in traditional visualizations.

Critical points of multidimensional random Fourier series: variance estimates

OpenAIRE

Nicolaescu, Liviu I.

2013-01-01

To any positive number $\\varepsilon$ and any nonnegative even Schwartz function $w:\\mathbb{R}\\to\\mathbb{R}$ we associate the random function $u^\\varepsilon$ on the $m$-torus $T^m_\\varepsilon:=\\mathbb{R}^m/(\\varepsilon^{-1}\\mathbb{Z})^m$ defined as the real part of the random Fourier series $$ \\sum_{\

Numbering of vertebrae on MRI using a PACS cross-referencing tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paik, Nam Chull; Lim, Chun Soo; Jang, Ho Suk

2012-01-01

Background: For the detection and documentation of numeric variations on spine magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), different techniques have previously been introduced. However, these methods require additional special imaging algorithms, software, or devices. We intend to introduce a vertebral numbering method using the existing picture archiving and communication system (PACS) and MRI system. Purpose: To assess the accuracy of a method for numbering presacral vertebrae based on the cross-referencing of two sagittal MRI series. Material and Methods: This study was a retrospective review of 224 consecutive patients who underwent both lumbar MRI with cervicothoracic scan and whole spine radiographic examinations. A radiologist and a neurosurgeon independently counted the number of presacral vertebrae in a cranial-to-caudal approach with cross-referencing of cervicothoracic and lumbar MRI sagittal series on the PACS workstation. Radiographic numbering from the cervical through the thoracic to the lumbar vertebrae, as a reference standard, was completed independently by the two reviewers. An analysis of the inter-observer and intermodality agreements of radiography and MRI was done. Results: In all cases except one, concordant numbering existed between the two modalities of MRI cross-referencing and radiographs combination. Both observers agreed completely, with no inter-observer discordance. Conclusion: The number of vertebrae could be identified consistently by counting caudally from C2 with cross-referencing cervicothoracic and lumbosacral sagittal MRI scans on the PACS workstation

Numbering of vertebrae on MRI using a PACS cross-referencing tool

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Paik, Nam Chull [Dept. of Radiology, Arumdaun Wooldul Spine Hospital, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)], e-mail: srsna@freechal.com; Lim, Chun Soo; Jang, Ho Suk [Dept. of Neurosurgery, Arumdaun Wooldul Spine Hospital, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

2012-09-15

Background: For the detection and documentation of numeric variations on spine magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), different techniques have previously been introduced. However, these methods require additional special imaging algorithms, software, or devices. We intend to introduce a vertebral numbering method using the existing picture archiving and communication system (PACS) and MRI system. Purpose: To assess the accuracy of a method for numbering presacral vertebrae based on the cross-referencing of two sagittal MRI series. Material and Methods: This study was a retrospective review of 224 consecutive patients who underwent both lumbar MRI with cervicothoracic scan and whole spine radiographic examinations. A radiologist and a neurosurgeon independently counted the number of presacral vertebrae in a cranial-to-caudal approach with cross-referencing of cervicothoracic and lumbar MRI sagittal series on the PACS workstation. Radiographic numbering from the cervical through the thoracic to the lumbar vertebrae, as a reference standard, was completed independently by the two reviewers. An analysis of the inter-observer and intermodality agreements of radiography and MRI was done. Results: In all cases except one, concordant numbering existed between the two modalities of MRI cross-referencing and radiographs combination. Both observers agreed completely, with no inter-observer discordance. Conclusion: The number of vertebrae could be identified consistently by counting caudally from C2 with cross-referencing cervicothoracic and lumbosacral sagittal MRI scans on the PACS workstation.

From Fourier Series to Rapidly Convergent Series for Zeta(3)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheufens, Ernst E

2011-01-01

The article presents a mathematical study which investigates the exact values of the Riemann zeta (ζ) function. It states that exact values can be determined from Fourier series for periodic versions of even power functions. It notes that using power series for logarithmic functions on this such ......The article presents a mathematical study which investigates the exact values of the Riemann zeta (ζ) function. It states that exact values can be determined from Fourier series for periodic versions of even power functions. It notes that using power series for logarithmic functions...

Kinematic model of some types of motion of matter in active regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Platov, Yu.V.

1983-01-01

The kinematics of matter motion in variable magnetic fields of active regions on the Sun in the MHD approximation of a strong field and cold plasma is investigated. It is shown that the variation of sunspot magnetic moments lead to the development of different active phenomena in the solar atmosphere. The development of such phenomena at first can occur at the phase of active region growth, when new sunspots together with developed sunspots emerge in an active region or relative motions take place in a sunspot group

factor high order fuzzy time series with applications to temperature

African Journals Online (AJOL)

HOD

In this paper, a novel two – factor high – order fuzzy time series forecasting method based on .... to balance between local and global exploitations of the swarms. While, .... Although, there were a number of outliers but, the spread at the spot in ...

Condensing Unit with a Scroll Compressor (UB series)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Editor, [Korea Energy Management Corporation, Yongin (Korea)

2002-05-01

Condensing unit, which is selected as a heat reservoir of grocery store or refrigerating warehouse, has increased its electricity consumption due to high annual operating ratio and large-sized stores. As the requirement of temperature management on freezing and storage has become strict for maintenance of food quality, the number of companies that import HACCP has increased for a few years. Accordingly, the requirement of high performance and reliability on a condensing unit has also risen more than it did. To meet the requirement, Mitsubishi Electric developed and sold condensing unit UB series, which has high reliability in energy saving. The company also has a plan to sell UPB series for the substitute refrigerant gas from fall of 2001. 5 figs., 2 tabs.

Number theory in the spirit of Ramanujan

CERN Document Server

Berndt, Bruce C

2006-01-01

Ramanujan is recognized as one of the great number theorists of the twentieth century. Here now is the first book to provide an introduction to his work in number theory. Most of Ramanujan's work in number theory arose out of q-series and theta functions. This book provides an introduction to these two important subjects and to some of the topics in number theory that are inextricably intertwined with them, including the theory of partitions, sums of squares and triangular numbers, and the Ramanujan tau function. The majority of the results discussed here are originally due to Ramanujan or were rediscovered by him. Ramanujan did not leave us proofs of the thousands of theorems he recorded in his notebooks, and so it cannot be claimed that many of the proofs given in this book are those found by Ramanujan. However, they are all in the spirit of his mathematics. The subjects examined in this book have a rich history dating back to Euler and Jacobi, and they continue to be focal points of contemporary mathematic...

Approximate particle number projection in hot nuclei

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kosov, D.S.; Vdovin, A.I.

1995-01-01

Heated finite systems like, e.g., hot atomic nuclei have to be described by the canonical partition function. But this is a quite difficult technical problem and, as a rule, the grand canonical partition function is used in the studies. As a result, some shortcomings of the theoretical description appear because of the thermal fluctuations of the number of particles. Moreover, in nuclei with pairing correlations the quantum number fluctuations are introduced by some approximate methods (e.g., by the standard BCS method). The exact particle number projection is very cumbersome and an approximate number projection method for T ≠ 0 basing on the formalism of thermo field dynamics is proposed. The idea of the Lipkin-Nogami method to perform any operator as a series in the number operator powers is used. The system of equations for the coefficients of this expansion is written and the solution of the system in the next approximation after the BCS one is obtained. The method which is of the 'projection after variation' type is applied to a degenerate single j-shell model. 14 refs., 1 tab

True random numbers from amplified quantum vacuum.

Science.gov (United States)

Jofre, M; Curty, M; Steinlechner, F; Anzolin, G; Torres, J P; Mitchell, M W; Pruneri, V

2011-10-10

Random numbers are essential for applications ranging from secure communications to numerical simulation and quantitative finance. Algorithms can rapidly produce pseudo-random outcomes, series of numbers that mimic most properties of true random numbers while quantum random number generators (QRNGs) exploit intrinsic quantum randomness to produce true random numbers. Single-photon QRNGs are conceptually simple but produce few random bits per detection. In contrast, vacuum fluctuations are a vast resource for QRNGs: they are broad-band and thus can encode many random bits per second. Direct recording of vacuum fluctuations is possible, but requires shot-noise-limited detectors, at the cost of bandwidth. We demonstrate efficient conversion of vacuum fluctuations to true random bits using optical amplification of vacuum and interferometry. Using commercially-available optical components we demonstrate a QRNG at a bit rate of 1.11 Gbps. The proposed scheme has the potential to be extended to 10 Gbps and even up to 100 Gbps by taking advantage of high speed modulation sources and detectors for optical fiber telecommunication devices.

A Reception Analysis on the Youth Audiences of TV Series in Marivan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Omid Karimi

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to describe the role of foreign media as the agitators of popular culture. For that with reception analysis it’s pay to describe decoding of youth audiences about this series. Globalization theory and Reception in Communication theory are formed the theoretical system of current article. The methodology in this research is qualitative one, and two techniques as in-depth interview and observation are used for data collection. The results show different people based on individual features, social and cultural backgrounds have inclination toward special characters and identify with them. This inclination so far the audience fallow the series because of his/her favorite character. Also there is a great compatibility between audience backgrounds and their receptions. A number of audience have criticized the series and point out the negative consequences on its society. However, seeing the series continue; really they prefer watching series enjoying to risks of it.

Impedance characteristics of DFIGs considering the impacts of DFIG numbers and its application on SSR analysis

Science.gov (United States)

You, J. J.; Ning, W. Y.; Jiang, H.; Dong, Y. X.; Liu, H.; Li, Y.

2017-05-01

Sub-synchronous resonance (SSR) occurred in the power system with both Doubly Fed Induction Generators (DFIGs) and series-compensated lines. There have been several papers focusing on the analysis of such SSR phenomenon. To the authors’ knowledge, the impacts of DFIG numbers are seldom considered in existing papers. In this paper, the impedance characteristics of DFIGs under different numbers are analyzed. Then the relationship between DFIG numbers and SSR characteristics is discussed. The contributions to be included in the paper are as following: 1) the impedance of N DFIGs is roughly equal to 1/N of the impedance of one DFIG. 2) The SSR risk of system is related with both the numbers of DFIGs and the parameters of the series-compensated lines.

On the binary expansions of algebraic numbers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bailey, David H.; Borwein, Jonathan M.; Crandall, Richard E.; Pomerance, Carl

2003-07-01

Employing concepts from additive number theory, together with results on binary evaluations and partial series, we establish bounds on the density of 1's in the binary expansions of real algebraic numbers. A central result is that if a real y has algebraic degree D > 1, then the number {number_sign}(|y|, N) of 1-bits in the expansion of |y| through bit position N satisfies {number_sign}(|y|, N) > CN{sup 1/D} for a positive number C (depending on y) and sufficiently large N. This in itself establishes the transcendency of a class of reals {summation}{sub n{ge}0} 1/2{sup f(n)} where the integer-valued function f grows sufficiently fast; say, faster than any fixed power of n. By these methods we re-establish the transcendency of the Kempner--Mahler number {summation}{sub n{ge}0}1/2{sup 2{sup n}}, yet we can also handle numbers with a substantially denser occurrence of 1's. Though the number z = {summation}{sub n{ge}0}1/2{sup n{sup 2}} has too high a 1's density for application of our central result, we are able to invoke some rather intricate number-theoretical analysis and extended computations to reveal aspects of the binary structure of z{sup 2}.

Anatomy of the ICDS series: A bibliometric analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cardona, Manuel; Marx, Werner

2007-01-01

In this article, the proceedings of the International Conferences on Defects in Semiconductors (ICDS) have been analyzed by bibliometric methods. The papers of these conferences have been published as articles in regular journals or special proceedings journals and in books with diverse publishers. The conference name/title changed several times. Many of the proceedings did not appear in the so-called 'source journals' covered by the Thomson/ISI citation databases, in particular by the Science Citation Index (SCI). But the number of citations within these source journals can be determined using the Cited Reference Search mode under the Web of Science (WoS) and the SCI offered by the host STN International. The search functions of both systems were needed to select the papers published as different document types and to cover the full time span of the series. The most cited ICDS papers were identified, and the overall numbers of citations as well as the time-dependent impact of these papers, of single conferences, and of the complete series, was established. The complete of citing papers was analyzed with respect to the countries of the citing authors, the citing journals, and the ISI subject categories

"Observation Obscurer" - Time Series Viewer, Editor and Processor

Science.gov (United States)

Andronov, I. L.

The program is described, which contains a set of subroutines suitable for East viewing and interactive filtering and processing of regularly and irregularly spaced time series. Being a 32-bit DOS application, it may be used as a default fast viewer/editor of time series in any compute shell ("commander") or in Windows. It allows to view the data in the "time" or "phase" mode, to remove ("obscure") or filter outstanding bad points; to make scale transformations and smoothing using few methods (e.g. mean with phase binning, determination of the statistically opti- mal number of phase bins; "running parabola" (Andronov, 1997, As. Ap. Suppl, 125, 207) fit and to make time series analysis using some methods, e.g. correlation, autocorrelation and histogram analysis: determination of extrema etc. Some features have been developed specially for variable star observers, e.g. the barycentric correction, the creation and fast analysis of "OC" diagrams etc. The manual for "hot keys" is presented. The computer code was compiled with a 32-bit Free Pascal (www.freepascal.org).

Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy | Indian Academy of Sciences

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

2016-01-27

Jan 27, 2016 ... The monthly sunspot numbers compiled by Temmer et al. and the monthly polar faculae from observations of the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, for the interval of March 1954 to March 1996, are used to ... Department of Physics, Dezhou University, 253023 Dezhou, People's Republic of China.

Event-based stochastic point rainfall resampling for statistical replication and climate projection of historical rainfall series

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren; Korup Andersen, Aske; Larsen, Anders Badsberg

2017-01-01

Continuous and long rainfall series are a necessity in rural and urban hydrology for analysis and design purposes. Local historical point rainfall series often cover several decades, which makes it possible to estimate rainfall means at different timescales, and to assess return periods of extreme...... includes climate changes projected to a specific future period. This paper presents a framework for resampling of historical point rainfall series in order to generate synthetic rainfall series, which has the same statistical properties as an original series. Using a number of key target predictions...... for the future climate, such as winter and summer precipitation, and representation of extreme events, the resampled historical series are projected to represent rainfall properties in a future climate. Climate-projected rainfall series are simulated by brute force randomization of model parameters, which leads...

A Kalman Filter-Based Method to Generate Continuous Time Series of Medium-Resolution NDVI Images

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernando Sedano

2014-12-01

Full Text Available A data assimilation method to produce complete temporal sequences of synthetic medium-resolution images is presented. The method implements a Kalman filter recursive algorithm that integrates medium and moderate resolution imagery. To demonstrate the approach, time series of 30-m spatial resolution NDVI images at 16-day time steps were generated using Landsat NDVI images and MODIS NDVI products at four sites with different ecosystems and land cover-land use dynamics. The results show that the time series of synthetic NDVI images captured seasonal land surface dynamics and maintained the spatial structure of the landscape at higher spatial resolution. The time series of synthetic medium-resolution NDVI images were validated within a Monte Carlo simulation framework. Normalized residuals decreased as the number of available observations increased, ranging from 0.2 to below 0.1. Residuals were also significantly lower for time series of synthetic NDVI images generated at combined recursion (smoothing than individually at forward and backward recursions (filtering. Conversely, the uncertainties of the synthetic images also decreased when the number of available observations increased and combined recursions were implemented.

On the convergence of series of reciprocal of primes related to the Fermat numbers

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Křížek, Michal; Luca, F.; Somer, L.

2002-01-01

Roč. 97, č. 1 (2002), s. 95-112 ISSN 0022-314X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1019905 Keywords : Fermat numbers%elite primes%density Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.365, year: 2002

Effect of Brinkman number and magnetic field on laminar convection ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The effect of Brinkman number and magnetic field on laminar convection in a vertical plate channel with uniform and asymmetric temperatures has been studied. The dimensionless form of momentum and energy balanced equations has been solved using one term perturbation series solution. The solution of the ...

Divergent Perturbation Series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suslov, I.M.

2005-01-01

Various perturbation series are factorially divergent. The behavior of their high-order terms can be determined by Lipatov's method, which involves the use of instanton configurations of appropriate functional integrals. When the Lipatov asymptotic form is known and several lowest order terms of the perturbation series are found by direct calculation of diagrams, one can gain insight into the behavior of the remaining terms of the series, which can be resummed to solve various strong-coupling problems in a certain approximation. This approach is demonstrated by determining the Gell-Mann-Low functions in φ 4 theory, QED, and QCD with arbitrary coupling constants. An overview of the mathematical theory of divergent series is presented, and interpretation of perturbation series is discussed. Explicit derivations of the Lipatov asymptotic form are presented for some basic problems in theoretical physics. A solution is proposed to the problem of renormalon contributions, which hampered progress in this field in the late 1970s. Practical perturbation-series summation schemes are described both for a coupling constant of order unity and in the strong-coupling limit. An interpretation of the Borel integral is given for 'non-Borel-summable' series. Higher order corrections to the Lipatov asymptotic form are discussed

Sunspots and the physics of magnetic flux tubes. III. Aerodynamic lift

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parker, E.N.

1979-01-01

The aerodynamic lift on a rigid circular cylinder of radius a in a nonuniform free stream is calculated to first order in the derivatives of the free-stream velocity, u(r). The lift per unit length, is of the order of the dynamical pressure 1/2rhou 2 times (a 2 /u 2 ) vertical-bardelu 2 vertical-bar. The results have application to the motion of flux tubes in the Sun. Illustrative examples are provided in subsequent papers of this series

On the series

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

2016-08-26

Aug 26, 2016 ... http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/pmsc/115/04/0371-0381. Keywords. Inverse binomial series; hypergeometric series; polylogarithms; integral representations. Abstract. In this paper we investigate the series ∑ k = 1 ∞ ( 3 k k ) − 1 k − n x k . Obtaining some integral representations of them, we evaluated the ...

Time series analysis time series analysis methods and applications

CERN Document Server

Rao, Tata Subba; Rao, C R

2012-01-01

The field of statistics not only affects all areas of scientific activity, but also many other matters such as public policy. It is branching rapidly into so many different subjects that a series of handbooks is the only way of comprehensively presenting the various aspects of statistical methodology, applications, and recent developments. The Handbook of Statistics is a series of self-contained reference books. Each volume is devoted to a particular topic in statistics, with Volume 30 dealing with time series. The series is addressed to the entire community of statisticians and scientists in various disciplines who use statistical methodology in their work. At the same time, special emphasis is placed on applications-oriented techniques, with the applied statistician in mind as the primary audience. Comprehensively presents the various aspects of statistical methodology Discusses a wide variety of diverse applications and recent developments Contributors are internationally renowened experts in their respect...

Stochastic modeling of sunshine number data

Science.gov (United States)

Brabec, Marek; Paulescu, Marius; Badescu, Viorel

2013-11-01

In this paper, we will present a unified statistical modeling framework for estimation and forecasting sunshine number (SSN) data. Sunshine number has been proposed earlier to describe sunshine time series in qualitative terms (Theor Appl Climatol 72 (2002) 127-136) and since then, it was shown to be useful not only for theoretical purposes but also for practical considerations, e.g. those related to the development of photovoltaic energy production. Statistical modeling and prediction of SSN as a binary time series has been challenging problem, however. Our statistical model for SSN time series is based on an underlying stochastic process formulation of Markov chain type. We will show how its transition probabilities can be efficiently estimated within logistic regression framework. In fact, our logistic Markovian model can be relatively easily fitted via maximum likelihood approach. This is optimal in many respects and it also enables us to use formalized statistical inference theory to obtain not only the point estimates of transition probabilities and their functions of interest, but also related uncertainties, as well as to test of various hypotheses of practical interest, etc. It is straightforward to deal with non-homogeneous transition probabilities in this framework. Very importantly from both physical and practical points of view, logistic Markov model class allows us to test hypotheses about how SSN dependents on various external covariates (e.g. elevation angle, solar time, etc.) and about details of the dynamic model (order and functional shape of the Markov kernel, etc.). Therefore, using generalized additive model approach (GAM), we can fit and compare models of various complexity which insist on keeping physical interpretation of the statistical model and its parts. After introducing the Markovian model and general approach for identification of its parameters, we will illustrate its use and performance on high resolution SSN data from the Solar

Stochastic modeling of sunshine number data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brabec, Marek, E-mail: mbrabec@cs.cas.cz [Department of Nonlinear Modeling, Institute of Computer Science, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Pod Vodarenskou vezi 2, 182 07 Prague 8 (Czech Republic); Paulescu, Marius [Physics Department, West University of Timisoara, V. Parvan 4, 300223 Timisoara (Romania); Badescu, Viorel [Candida Oancea Institute, Polytechnic University of Bucharest, Spl. Independentei 313, 060042 Bucharest (Romania)

2013-11-13

In this paper, we will present a unified statistical modeling framework for estimation and forecasting sunshine number (SSN) data. Sunshine number has been proposed earlier to describe sunshine time series in qualitative terms (Theor Appl Climatol 72 (2002) 127-136) and since then, it was shown to be useful not only for theoretical purposes but also for practical considerations, e.g. those related to the development of photovoltaic energy production. Statistical modeling and prediction of SSN as a binary time series has been challenging problem, however. Our statistical model for SSN time series is based on an underlying stochastic process formulation of Markov chain type. We will show how its transition probabilities can be efficiently estimated within logistic regression framework. In fact, our logistic Markovian model can be relatively easily fitted via maximum likelihood approach. This is optimal in many respects and it also enables us to use formalized statistical inference theory to obtain not only the point estimates of transition probabilities and their functions of interest, but also related uncertainties, as well as to test of various hypotheses of practical interest, etc. It is straightforward to deal with non-homogeneous transition probabilities in this framework. Very importantly from both physical and practical points of view, logistic Markov model class allows us to test hypotheses about how SSN dependents on various external covariates (e.g. elevation angle, solar time, etc.) and about details of the dynamic model (order and functional shape of the Markov kernel, etc.). Therefore, using generalized additive model approach (GAM), we can fit and compare models of various complexity which insist on keeping physical interpretation of the statistical model and its parts. After introducing the Markovian model and general approach for identification of its parameters, we will illustrate its use and performance on high resolution SSN data from the Solar

Stochastic modeling of sunshine number data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brabec, Marek; Paulescu, Marius; Badescu, Viorel

2013-01-01

In this paper, we will present a unified statistical modeling framework for estimation and forecasting sunshine number (SSN) data. Sunshine number has been proposed earlier to describe sunshine time series in qualitative terms (Theor Appl Climatol 72 (2002) 127-136) and since then, it was shown to be useful not only for theoretical purposes but also for practical considerations, e.g. those related to the development of photovoltaic energy production. Statistical modeling and prediction of SSN as a binary time series has been challenging problem, however. Our statistical model for SSN time series is based on an underlying stochastic process formulation of Markov chain type. We will show how its transition probabilities can be efficiently estimated within logistic regression framework. In fact, our logistic Markovian model can be relatively easily fitted via maximum likelihood approach. This is optimal in many respects and it also enables us to use formalized statistical inference theory to obtain not only the point estimates of transition probabilities and their functions of interest, but also related uncertainties, as well as to test of various hypotheses of practical interest, etc. It is straightforward to deal with non-homogeneous transition probabilities in this framework. Very importantly from both physical and practical points of view, logistic Markov model class allows us to test hypotheses about how SSN dependents on various external covariates (e.g. elevation angle, solar time, etc.) and about details of the dynamic model (order and functional shape of the Markov kernel, etc.). Therefore, using generalized additive model approach (GAM), we can fit and compare models of various complexity which insist on keeping physical interpretation of the statistical model and its parts. After introducing the Markovian model and general approach for identification of its parameters, we will illustrate its use and performance on high resolution SSN data from the Solar

Evaluation of random errors in Williams’ series coefficients obtained with digital image correlation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lychak, Oleh V; Holyns’kiy, Ivan S

2016-01-01

The use of the Williams’ series parameters for fracture analysis requires valid information about their error values. The aim of this investigation is the development of the method for estimation of the standard deviation of random errors of the Williams’ series parameters, obtained from the measured components of the stress field. Also, the criteria for choosing the optimal number of terms in the truncated Williams’ series for derivation of their parameters with minimal errors is proposed. The method was used for the evaluation of the Williams’ parameters, obtained from the data, and measured by the digital image correlation technique for testing a three-point bending specimen. (paper)

Number theory III Diophantine geometry

CERN Document Server

1991-01-01

From the reviews of the first printing of this book, published as Volume 60 of the Encyclopaedia of Mathematical Sciences: "Between number theory and geometry there have been several stimulating influences, and this book records of these enterprises. This author, who has been at the centre of such research for many years, is one of the best guides a reader can hope for. The book is full of beautiful results, open questions, stimulating conjectures and suggestions where to look for future developments. This volume bears witness of the broad scope of knowledge of the author, and the influence of several people who have commented on the manuscript before publication ... Although in the series of number theory, this volume is on diophantine geometry, and the reader will notice that algebraic geometry is present in every chapter. ... The style of the book is clear. Ideas are well explained, and the author helps the reader to pass by several technicalities. Reading and rereading this book I noticed that the topics ...

Refined open intersection numbers and the Kontsevich-Penner matrix model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alexandrov, Alexander [Center for Geometry and Physics, Institute for Basic Science (IBS),Pohang 37673 (Korea, Republic of); Centre de Recherches Mathématiques (CRM), Université de Montréal,Montréal (Canada); Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Concordia University,Montréal (Canada); Institute for Theoretical and Experimental Physics (ITEP),Moscow (Russian Federation); Buryak, Alexandr [Department of Mathematics, ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland); Tessler, Ran J. [Institute for Theoretical Studies, ETH Zurich,Zurich (Switzerland)

2017-03-23

A study of the intersection theory on the moduli space of Riemann surfaces with boundary was recently initiated in a work of R. Pandharipande, J.P. Solomon and the third author, where they introduced open intersection numbers in genus 0. Their construction was later generalized to all genera by J.P. Solomon and the third author. In this paper we consider a refinement of the open intersection numbers by distinguishing contributions from surfaces with different numbers of boundary components, and we calculate all these numbers. We then construct a matrix model for the generating series of the refined open intersection numbers and conjecture that it is equivalent to the Kontsevich-Penner matrix model. An evidence for the conjecture is presented. Another refinement of the open intersection numbers, which describes the distribution of the boundary marked points on the boundary components, is also discussed.

Refined open intersection numbers and the Kontsevich-Penner matrix model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alexandrov, Alexander; Buryak, Alexandr; Tessler, Ran J.

2017-01-01

A study of the intersection theory on the moduli space of Riemann surfaces with boundary was recently initiated in a work of R. Pandharipande, J.P. Solomon and the third author, where they introduced open intersection numbers in genus 0. Their construction was later generalized to all genera by J.P. Solomon and the third author. In this paper we consider a refinement of the open intersection numbers by distinguishing contributions from surfaces with different numbers of boundary components, and we calculate all these numbers. We then construct a matrix model for the generating series of the refined open intersection numbers and conjecture that it is equivalent to the Kontsevich-Penner matrix model. An evidence for the conjecture is presented. Another refinement of the open intersection numbers, which describes the distribution of the boundary marked points on the boundary components, is also discussed.

A climatological study of the relations among solar activity, galactic ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Though correlation study between precipitation and other parameters do not hint any linear relation, still the Fourier and wavelet analyses give an idea of common periodicities. The 9–11 year periodicity of sunspot numbers calculated by Fourier transform is also confirmed by wavelet transform in annual scale. Similarly ...

Fulltext PDF

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Barai Paramita The Fate of Dwarf Galaxies in Clusters and the Origin of. Intracluster Stars ... Basu, D. Close Separation Triple System QSO 1009–0252 with Discordant. Redshifts: Is the Spectrum of One Component Blueshifted?, 133. Bhatt Nipa, J. Predicting Maximum Sunspot Number in Solar Cycle 24, 71 ... Universe, 119.

European Science Notes. Volume 40, Number 1.

Science.gov (United States)

1986-01-01

Mass Spectrometry mers and copolymers of polyacrylate salt series edited by Professor J.F.J. Todd latex) rather than an inorganic or or- (University...changes in the popu- cy with two potassium dihydrogen phos- lation of a vibrational manifold were phate (KDP) crystals. Following a fil- determined by...AD-A162 235 EUROPEAN SCIENCE NOTES VOLUME 48 NUMBER I(U) OFFICE OF i/1 NAVAL RESEARCH LONDON (ENGLAND) L E SHAFFER JAN 86 UNCLASSIFIED F/G 5/2

Vibration Analysis and Time Series Prediction for Wind Turbine Gearbox Prognostics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hossam A. Gabbar

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Premature failure of a gearbox in a wind turbine poses a high risk of increasing the operational and maintenance costs and decreasing the profit margins. Prognostics and health management (PHM techniques are widely used to access the current health condition of the gearbox and project it in future to predict premature failures. This paper proposes such techniques for predicting gearbox health condition index extracted from the vibration signals emanating from the gearbox. The progression of the monitoring index is predicted using two different prediction techniques, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS and nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous inputs (NARX. The proposed prediction techniques are evaluated through sun-spot data-set and applied on vibration based health related monitoring index calculated through psychoacoustic phenomenon. A comparison is given for their prediction accuracy. The results are helpful in understanding the relationship of machine conditions, the corresponding indicating features, the level of damage/degradation, and their progression.

Simplifying the Reinsch algorithm for the Baker-Campbell-Hausdorff series

Science.gov (United States)

Van-Brunt, Alexander; Visser, Matt

2016-02-01

The Goldberg version of the Baker-Campbell-Hausdorff series computes the quantity Z ( X , Y ) = ln (" separators=" e X e Y ) = ∑ w g ( w ) w ( X , Y ) , where X and Y are not necessarily commuting in terms of "words" constructed from the {X, Y} "alphabet." The so-called Goldberg coefficients g(w) are the central topic of this article. This Baker-Campbell-Hausdorff series is a general purpose tool of very wide applicability in mathematical physics, quantum physics, and many other fields. The Reinsch algorithm for the truncated series permits one to calculate the Goldberg coefficients up to some fixed word length |w| by using nilpotent (|w| + 1) × (|w| + 1) matrices. We shall show how to further simplify the Reinsch algorithm, making its implementation (in principle) utterly straightforward using "off the shelf" symbolic manipulation software. Specific computations provide examples which help to provide a deeper understanding of the Goldberg coefficients and their properties. For instance, we shall establish some strict bounds (and some equalities) on the number of non-zero Goldberg coefficients. Unfortunately, we shall see that the number of nonzero Goldberg coefficients often grows very rapidly (in fact exponentially) with the word length |w|. Furthermore, the simplified Reinsch algorithm readily generalizes to many closely related but still quite distinct problems—we shall also present closely related results for the symmetric product S ( X , Y ) = ln (" separators=" e X / 2 e Y e X / 2 ) = ∑ w g S ( w ) w ( X , Y ) . Variations on such themes are straightforward. For instance, one can just as easily consider the "loop" product L ( X , Y ) = ln (" separators=" e X e Y e - X e - Y ) = ∑ w g L ( w ) w ( X , Y ) . This "loop" type of series is of interest, for instance, when considering either differential geometric parallel transport around a closed curve, non-Abelian versions of Stokes' theorem, or even Wigner rotation/Thomas precession in special

Connected to TV series: Quantifying series watching engagement.

Science.gov (United States)

Tóth-Király, István; Bőthe, Beáta; Tóth-Fáber, Eszter; Hága, Győző; Orosz, Gábor

2017-12-01

Background and aims Television series watching stepped into a new golden age with the appearance of online series. Being highly involved in series could potentially lead to negative outcomes, but the distinction between highly engaged and problematic viewers should be distinguished. As no appropriate measure is available for identifying such differences, a short and valid measure was constructed in a multistudy investigation: the Series Watching Engagement Scale (SWES). Methods In Study 1 (N Sample1  = 740 and N Sample2  = 740), exploratory structural equation modeling and confirmatory factor analysis were used to identify the most important facets of series watching engagement. In Study 2 (N = 944), measurement invariance of the SWES was investigated between males and females. In Study 3 (N = 1,520), latent profile analysis (LPA) was conducted to identify subgroups of viewers. Results Five factors of engagement were identified in Study 1 that are of major relevance: persistence, identification, social interaction, overuse, and self-development. Study 2 supported the high levels of equivalence between males and females. In Study 3, three groups of viewers (low-, medium-, and high-engagement viewers) were identified. The highly engaged at-risk group can be differentiated from the other two along key variables of watching time and personality. Discussion The present findings support the overall validity, reliability, and usefulness of the SWES and the results of the LPA showed that it might be useful to identify at-risk viewers before the development of problematic use.

HIGH-RESOLUTION HELIOSEISMIC IMAGING OF SUBSURFACE STRUCTURES AND FLOWS OF A SOLAR ACTIVE REGION OBSERVED BY HINODE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao Junwei; Kosovichev, Alexander G.; Sekii, Takashi

2010-01-01

We analyze a solar active region observed by the Hinode Ca II H line using the time-distance helioseismology technique, and infer wave-speed perturbation structures and flow fields beneath the active region with a high spatial resolution. The general subsurface wave-speed structure is similar to the previous results obtained from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager observations. The general subsurface flow structure is also similar, and the downward flows beneath the sunspot and the mass circulations around the sunspot are clearly resolved. Below the sunspot, some organized divergent flow cells are observed, and these structures may indicate the existence of mesoscale convective motions. Near the light bridge inside the sunspot, hotter plasma is found beneath, and flows divergent from this area are observed. The Hinode data also allow us to investigate potential uncertainties caused by the use of phase-speed filter for short travel distances. Comparing the measurements with and without the phase-speed filtering, we find out that inside the sunspot, mean acoustic travel times are in basic agreement, but the values are underestimated by a factor of 20%-40% inside the sunspot umbra for measurements with the filtering. The initial acoustic tomography results from Hinode show a great potential of using high-resolution observations for probing the internal structure and dynamics of sunspots.

United States Air Force Statistical Digest 1947, Second Annual Number

Science.gov (United States)

1948-08-01

Type and Series--Number Inetalled and Status of spere Enginell: lIlar 1944 to Dec 1947•••• ;, ••••••••••••••••••••••••• Tabla 99.-- Se!.o~ed Aircraft

Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000-2011.